Germania. Incidenza economica del calo demografico. – Bloomberg.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-02-10.

«the country’s surplus …. will fall by 20 percent by 2020, to around 7 percent of Germany’s gross domestic product»

*

«The biggest role will be played by demographics. Germany is aging fast and an older population earns less (pensioners make less money than workers at the apex of their career) and tend to spend more. This will bring the savings rate down.»

*

«But an even greater demographic effect is then expected for 2020-2025, and the surplus should then decline clearly further»

* * * * * * *

I dati sono semplici e chiari.

La Germania basa la sua economia sulle esportazioni, e queste stanno segnalando un declino che è destinato ad accentuarsi con il tempo.

Ancora una decina di anni e questo fenomeno assumerà dimensioni di portata tale da destabilizzare l’intero comparto produttivo. Certamente al momento l’economia tedesca è ancora forte, ma sembrerebbe aver raggiunto l’apice, oltre il quale il declino è giocoforza.

Mentre il volgo continua a guardare l’immediato con nullo orizzonte temporale, chiunque ragionasse invece in termini strategici non potrebbe fare a meno di prenderne atto.

Da questo punto di vista ben si comprendono i giudizi espressi dal Presidente Putin sulla Germania, ritenuta essere strategicamente ininfluente, così come si comprende il modo quasi offensivo con cui l’Amministrazione Trump ha ricevuto il Ministro degli esteri tedesco. Si aggiunga che la Germania si avvia ad un isolamento politico sempre più marcato ed evidente.

* * * * * * *

Il problema della Germania è semplicissimo: la questione demografica.

Le femmine tedesche autoctone non fanno figli a sufficienza o, meglio, non vogliono fare figli.

Per mantenere costante il numero della popolazione, servirebbe un tasso di fertilità superiore a 2.1. Ad oggi è 1.5: dato questo però che comprende sia autoctoni sia immigrati. Senza la quota degli immigrati il tasso di fertilità scenderebbe di poco sotto l’unità. Il grafico riportato da Destatis è ben chiaro.

Il 41.4% delle famiglie è formata da single. Su 400,115 matrimoni si registrano 163,335 separazioni, tenendo conto solo di quelle espressamente sentenziate da una Corte di Giustizia.

La Germania, intendendo per essa il popolo tedesco, si avvia alla estinzione, a diventare una mera espressione geografica.

*

Grande e severo errore è stato il voler considerare questo problema esclusivamente dal punto di vista economico.

Gli aiuti economici alle femmine che hanno prolificato sono davvero molto generosi, per molte ragazze sono un vero affare almeno fino alla maggiore età del figlio, ma non hanno risolto il problema.

Il problema è religioso e culturale: è un problema di Weltanschauung.

La famiglia è culturalmente penalizzata, la figura femminile intesa solo nella sua manifestazione economica e non anche familiare, la propaganda anticoncezionale ed abortista esasperata.

È quindi del tutto sequenziale che la Germania si trovi ad essersi incamminata verso la estinzione.

Ma senza popolazione, non può esistere nemmeno il sistema economico. 

---

→ Bloomberg. 2016-08-30. Aging Germany Is Almost Ready to Spend

Germany’s much-criticized current-account surplus is set to become smaller in the coming years as spending patterns shift with changes in society.

A study by Deutsche Bank economists Heiko Peters and Robin Winkler finds that the country’s surplus — mostly driven by net goods trade — will fall by 20 percent by 2020, to around 7 percent of Germany’s gross domestic product. While still big, it’s a far cry from the record 8.8 percent of GDP, or 275 billion euros, it is projected to reach this year.

It’s a running debate. The International Monetary Fund, the U.S. and fellow euro-area countries have all argued that the current-account balance is proof that Germans are saving too much and not spending enough.

The reasoning is that while Germany’s exports are benefiting from the weak euro, wages and government spending are low, creating an excess of savings and curbing imports. Germans respond that they cannot be asked to make their economy less competitive.

Whichever side of the debate you are on, the Deutsche Bank study shows that some structural factors are poised to reduce the imbalances of the German economy in coming years. 

The biggest role will be played by demographics. Germany is aging fast and an older population earns less (pensioners make less money than workers at the apex of their career) and tend to spend more. This will bring the savings rate down.

Then there is the housing market. After years of near-stagnation, German real estate is entering a period of expansion, and an influx of migrants is adding to already buoyant demand. Construction will take years to catch up, in the meantime, prices are bound to rise.

How will this impact the current-account balance? In short, higher real-estate values typically translate into higher spending. Homeowners feel richer as the value of their house goes up. Meanwhile, building material will come into the country from abroad. So consumption and imports increase. 

Meanwhile, global trade is set to slow, and with it demand for German-manufactured goods. 

Even so, the decline in the current-account surplus will only partially help European peers.

“Some of the deterioration will benefit the balances of Germany’s European neighbors,” wrote Peters and Winkler. “But the main decline will be vis-a-vis the traditional importers in Asia, the Middle East, and elsewhere.” 

---

→ Bloomberg. 2017-02-30. Attention Trade Warriors: Germany’s Surplus is on the Wane

An aging society, a housing boom and more immigrants will help slim Germany’s controversial current-account, Deutsche Bank argues.

*

The Trump administration appears intent on escalating the long-standing U.S. practice of attacking Germany’s current-account surplus.

Good news for those on the receiving end: It has probably peaked.

As officials like National Trade Council director Peter Navarro rail against the trade imbalance that dominates the balance of payments between the two countries,  pensioners, home-buyers and immigrants are quietly working to bring that $297 billion current-account surplus down. 

According to research by Deutsche Bank, demographics and a housing boom are two factors that will drive the current account balance — the difference between what a country earns from abroad and what it spends — to its lowest level in seven years by 2020.

That may offer little consolation to the German delegation when it hosts a Group of 20 meeting of finance ministers in March, as they’ll likely face intensified criticism for allowing such an imbalance to continue. Germany has long faced flak, both within the euro area and outside it, for failing to encourage greater domestic spending and imports to balance out its external excess.

Still, while the weaker euro will continue to make German exports attractive in the U.S. — think expensive sedans, high-tech machinery — there are countervailing factors at play on the other side of the equation.

“In the medium term we expect the demographic development and the solid domestic economy, driven by a sustained positive development on the property market, to push the surplus down to 7 percent of GDP,” Deutsche Bank economist Heiko Peters said by phone. 

A rising share of pensioners in the German population, who normally have less money to save than people in jobs, will crimp household savings rates, while an increasing number of immigrants such as refugees will contribute to boosting German imports, Peters wrote in a study first published last year.

And with housing valuations outpacing income and rent growth since 2009, home owners feel richer, save less toward retirement and borrow against their property. That leads to rising imports of building materials to fuel the property boom and increased demand for foreign consumer goods on the back of the wealth effect.

Seven percent of GDP is still a mighty big number for an economy as large as Germany’s. 

“That’s still a relatively high level until 2020,” Peters says. “But an even greater demographic effect is then expected for 2020-2025, and the surplus should then decline clearly further.”