Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Finanza e Sistema Bancario

Blocco Europeo. Le borse iniziano a temere la stagflazione. Brent a $83 per barile.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-10-06.

2021-10-06__ Borse 001

«European stock markets slumped on Wednesday morning amid inflation fears as US crude oil hit a seven-year high»

«A barrel of US crude touched $79.40, while Brent crude hit a three-year high of $83 per barrel»

«Meanwhile, German industrial orders tumbled 7.7% in August»

«Car and car part manufacturers were the worst hit, with orders down 12% on the previous month»

2021-10-06__ Borse 002

2021-10-06__ Borse 003

2021-10-06__ Borse 004

* * * * * * *

Lagarde e von der Leyen sono troppo prese ad organizzare il COP26 per curarsi di codesti transitori sommovimenti.

In attesa che sorge il radioso sole dell’avvenire nel 2050, ad oggi saranno i Cittadini Contribuenti a pagare il conto, tutti contenti di poter contribuire al risanamento ecologico della Europa.

* * * * * * *


European markets tumble on inflation fears and soaring oil and gas prices.

European stock markets slumped on Wednesday morning amid inflation fears as US crude oil hit a seven-year high.

In London, the FTSE 100 (^FTSE) fell more than 1.2% after opening, trading below the key 7,000 points mark, while the French CAC (^FCHI) tumbled more than 1.3% and the DAX (^GDAXI) was also almost 1.3% lower in Germany.

It came as US crude reached its highest level since 2014, extending its recent rally due to tight supplies, rising demand, and soaring gas prices. European natural gas climbed to fresh highs yet again on Wednesday.

A barrel of US crude touched $79.40, while Brent crude (BZ=F) hit a three-year high of $83 per barrel.

“I think rallying crude oil are driving stagflation concerns for a large part – especially for emerging market economies who are also net oil importers. India and China to name a couple,” Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at Think Markets, said.

“Even in the more advanced economies, rising crude oil prices have raised fuel prices, directly impacting consumers’ disposable incomes.

“The other factors are driven by other energy prices – most notably gas, but also surging electricity prices – as well as supply-chain bottlenecks – the latter raising both inflation and hurting economic growth.”

Meanwhile, German industrial orders tumbled 7.7% in August, as supply bottlenecks and shortages hit factories.

Europe’s largest economy suffered during the month after two months of strong gains. The figures came in much worse than the 2.1% fall which analysts expected.

Car and car part manufacturers were the worst hit, with orders down 12% on the previous month.

Across the pond, S&P 500 futures (ES=F) were down 0.7%, Dow futures (YM=F) shed 0.6%, and Nasdaq futures (NQ=F) were 0.9% lower as trade began in Europe.

Asian stocks moved mostly lower overnight on the back of higher energy prices and inflation concerns.

In Tokyo, the Nikkei (^N225) fell more than 1%, extending losses for an eighth consecutive session, while the Hang Seng (^HSI) dipped 0.4%. The Shanghai Composite (000001.SS) is closed until Friday due to a holiday.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Finanza e Sistema Bancario

Mondo. Borse. Crollo in attesa delle decisioni di Lagarde e di Powell.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-28. H 17:08.

Immagine.png2021-09-28__ Borse 001

Il focus resta sempre sul Forum Bce a Sintra con l’intervento d’apertura della presidente Christine Lagarde e oltreoceano con l’audizione alla Commissione banche del Senato americano del presidente della Fed, Jerome Powell.

Immagine.png2021-09-28__ Borse 002

L’occidente è in stagflazione.

In altri termini, è in un vicolo cieco.

Immagine.png2021-09-28__ Borse 003

Volenti o nolenti si dovrà accettare il tapering ed una severa riduzione dei deficit. Nessuno si faccia ilusioni, ma proprio nessuna.

Immagine.png2021-09-28__ Borse 004

*


Borsa: Europa perde terreno con tecnologici, Milano -1,3%

Le Borse europee si appesantiscono ulteriormente a metà seduta con Milano che perde l’1,3% (Fste Mib 25.797 punti). Maglia nera è Parigi (-1,65%), mentre Londra cede lo 0,58% e Francoforte l’1,09% . Non cambia il leitmotiv della giornata con la fiammata del petrolio e i rendimenti dei bond governativi in rialzo. Il decennale del Regno Unito ha toccato l’1%, livello che non raggiungeva da 18 mesi. Negativi anche i future su Wall Street. E sale lo spread tra Btp e Bund che si avvicina ai 104 punti con il rendimento del decennale italiano che è allo 0,84 per cento.

Il focus resta sempre sul Forum Bce a Sintra con l’intervento d’apertura della presidente Christine Lagarde e oltreoceano con l’audizione alla Commissione banche del Senato americano del presidente della Fed, Jerome Powell. A Milano sono confermate le vendite su Stm (-4,75%) che paga la crisi dei semiconduttori. Tra i peggiori anche Amplifon (-4,9%) e Interpump (-4,24%) . Tiene Eni (+1,45%) con il brent sempre a 80 dollari al barile. L’indice d’area europeo, lo stoxx 600, perde l’1,3% con la caduta di tecnologici e immobiliare. Sul mercato valutario sempre in flessione l’euro sul dollaro con la moneta unica a 1,1679 sul biglietto verde.

Pubblicato in: Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Stati Uniti

Usa. Buffett Indicator 239%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-28.

2021-09-26__ Buffett 001

The Buffett Indicator is the ratio of total US stock market valuation to GDP. Named after Warren Buffett, who called the ratio “the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment”. (Buffett has since walked back those comments, hesitating to endorse any single measure as either comprehensive or consistent over time, but this ratio remains credited to his name). To calculate the ratio, we need to get data for both metrics: Total Market Value and GDP.

                         Total Market Value

The most common measurement of the aggregate value of the US stock market is the Wilshire 5000. This is available directly from Wilshire (links to all data sources below), with monthly data starting in 1971, and daily measures beginning in 1980. The Wilshire index was created such that a 1-point increase in the index corresponds to a $1 billion increase in US market cap. Per Wilshire, that 1:1 ratio has drifted, and as of Dec 2013 a 1-point increase in the index corresponded to a $1.15 billion dollar increase. We adjust the data back to inception (and projected going forward) on a straight-line basis to compensate for this drift. For example, the Sep 2020 Wilshire Index of 35,807 corresponds to a total real market cap value of $42.27T USD.

For data prior to 1970 (where Wilshire data is not available) we use the Z.1 Financial Account – Nonfinancial corporate business; corporate equities; liability, Level, published by the Federal Reserve, which provides a quarterly estimate of total market value back to 1945. In order to integrate the datasets, we index the Z.1 data to match up to the 1970 Wilshire starting point.

Combined, these data make our Composite US Stock Market Value data series, shown below. Our current estimate of composite US stock market value is $54.7T.

                         GDP

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) represents the total production of the US economy. This is measured quarterly by the US Government’s Bureau of Economic Analysis. The GDP is a static measurement of prior economic activity – it does not forecast the future or include any expectation or valuation of future economic activity or economic growth. The GDP is calculated and published quarterly, several months in arrears, such that by the time the data is published it is several months old. In order to provide updated data for the most recent quarter we use the most recent GDPNow estimate published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Based on this, our current estimate of (annualized) GDP is $22.9T.

                         The Ratio of the Two

Given that the stock market value represents expectations of future economic activity, and the GDP is a measure of most recent actual economic activity, the ratio of these two data series represents expected future returns relative to current performance. This is similar in nature to how we think about the PE ratio of a particular stock. It stands to reason that this ratio would remain relatively stable over time, and increase slowly as technology allows for the same labor and capital to be used ever more efficiently.

Pubblicato in: Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Fisco e Tasse

Germania. Grandi capitali in fuga verso la Svizzera. Paura delle sinistre.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-25.

Julius Bar 001

Altro che grandi migrazioni di popoli! Dalla Germania stanno fuggendo verso la Svizzera come perseguitati politici ed economici i grandi miliardari ed i loro capitali.

Ed abbiamo dati certi solo per questo flusso, ma la stima verso altre nazioni non è certo da meno.

Un governo di sinistra in Germania sarebbe la loro morte.

* * * * * * *

«A potential lurch to the left in Germany’s election on Sunday is scaring millionaires into moving assets into Switzerland»

«If the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), hard-left Linke and environmentalist Greens come to power, the reintroduction of a wealth tax and a tightening of inheritance tax could be on the political agenda»

«For the super-rich, this is red hot … Entrepreneurial families are highly alarmed»

«The move shows how many rich people still see Switzerland as an attractive place to park wealth, despite its efforts to abolish its image as a billionaires’ safe haven»

«No country has more offshore assets than Switzerland and inflows accelerated in 2020, to the benefit of big banks such as UBS, Credit Suisse and Julius Baer»

«Bank for International Settlements data show deposits of German households and companies at banks in Switzerland climbed almost $5 billion to $37.5 billion in the first quarter of 2021, and this does not include shares, bonds or financial products»

«Many wealthy people, especially entrepreneurs, fear that there will be a lurch to the left in Germany – no matter how the elections turn out»

«A poll on Thursday showed the SPD, on 25%, leading outgoing Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives by four points»

«The SPD wants to reintroduce a wealth tax and increase inheritance tax, while the Greens – a likely potential coalition partner – plan to tax fortunes more heavily»

«Switzerland as a financial centre is characterized by stability, legal security and a high level of financial competence»

* * * * * * *

Il caso della Germania e dell’Unione Europea è paradigmatico del sistema ideologico delle sinistre.

Curano il paziente avvelenato somministrandogli ancor più veleno.

Poi, si lagnano se il sistema implode.

* * * * * * *


German millionaires rush assets to Switzerland ahead of election.

Zurich, Sept 24 (Reuters) – A potential lurch to the left in Germany’s election on Sunday is scaring millionaires into moving assets into Switzerland, bankers and tax lawyers say.

If the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), hard-left Linke and environmentalist Greens come to power, the reintroduction of a wealth tax and a tightening of inheritance tax could be on the political agenda.

 “For the super-rich, this is red hot,” said a German-based tax lawyer with extensive Swiss operations. “Entrepreneurial families are highly alarmed.”

The move shows how many rich people still see Switzerland as an attractive place to park wealth, despite its efforts to abolish its image as a billionaires’ safe haven.

No country has more offshore assets than Switzerland and inflows accelerated in 2020, to the benefit of big banks such as UBS, Credit Suisse and Julius Baer. Geopolitical tensions and fears of the COVID-19 pandemic’s economic fallout made Switzerland’s political stability attractive.

Bank for International Settlements data show deposits of German households and companies at banks in Switzerland climbed almost $5 billion to $37.5 billion in the first quarter of 2021, and this does not include shares, bonds or financial products.

More recent figures are not available, but insiders say the inflows have continued. “I have booked an above-average amount of new money as in the past three months,” said a veteran client adviser at a large Swiss bank who deals mainly with Germans.

“Many wealthy people, especially entrepreneurs, fear that there will be a lurch to the left in Germany – no matter how the elections turn out,” says Florian Dürselen, head of Europe at wealth manager LGT Switzerland.

One top Swiss banker said: “I know a number of German entrepreneurs who want to have a foothold outside Germany if things get too red (leftist) there.”

                         TAX ON ASSETS

A poll on Thursday showed the SPD, on 25%, leading outgoing Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives by four points.

The SPD wants to reintroduce a wealth tax and increase inheritance tax, while the Greens – a likely potential coalition partner – plan to tax fortunes more heavily. Although both envision raising income tax for top earners, a tax on assets would raise much more money, the tax lawyer said.

He was seeing increased demand for advice from clients, he said, noting some entrepreneurs had sought to protect themselves by making new investments through a company in Switzerland or transferring assets to a foundation in Liechtenstein.

Simply transferring cash to a Swiss bank account, on the other hand, no longer helps. Under immense international pressure, the Swiss now share such account data with tax authorities in clients’ home countries.

“Switzerland as a financial centre is characterized by stability, legal security and a high level of financial competence. However, it does not offer any protection against tax evasion,” said a spokesperson for the State Secretariat for International Financial Matters (SIF).

LGT’s Dürselen said he recently spoke with a German entrepreneur who feared Germany could soon tax foreign assets or transactions harshly, which fostered the view of Switzerland as a safe haven for capital.

“Personally, I assume that considerable assets will continue to be moved to Switzerland,” he said.

One local politician said dozens of wealthy German entrepreneurs have inquired in recent months about residing in one of the low-tax suburbs along Lake Zurich.

Pubblicato in: Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Stati Uniti

Usa. 2020. Investimenti diretti per stato e tipologia. – BEA.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-04.

2021-07-27__ US Investment 001

Il Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) ha rilasciato il Report Direct Investment by Country and Industry, 2020

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The U.S. direct investment abroad  position, or cumulative level of investment, increased $244.9 billion to $6.15 trillion at the end of 2020 from $5.91 trillion at the end of 2019, according to statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The increase reflected a $158.8 billion increase in the position in Europe, primarily in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands. By industry, holding company affiliates owned by U.S. manufacturers had the largest increase.

The foreign direct investment in the United States position increased $187.2 billion to $4.63 trillion at the end of 2020 from $4.44 trillion at the end of 2019. The increase mainly reflected a $119.2 billion increase in the position from Europe, primarily Germany. By industry, affiliates in manufacturing, finance and insurance, and wholesale trade accounted for the majority of the increase.

                         U.S. direct investment abroad (tables 1 – 6)

U.S. multinational enterprises (MNEs) invest in nearly every country, but their investment in affiliates in five countries accounted for more than half of the total position at the end of 2020. The U.S. direct investment abroad position was largest in the United Kingdom ($890.1 billion), followed by the Netherlands ($844.0 billion) and Luxembourg ($759.4 billion). Canada ($422.2 billion) and Ireland ($390.3 billion) rounded out the top-five.

By industry of the directly-owned foreign affiliate, investment was highly concentrated in holding companies, which accounted for nearly half of the overall position in 2020. Most holding company affiliates, which are owned by U.S. parents from a variety of industries, own other foreign affiliates that operate in a variety of industries. By industry of the U.S. parent, investment by manufacturing MNEs accounted for 51.6 percent of the position, followed by MNEs in finance and insurance (13.9 percent).

U.S. MNEs earned income of $452.0 billion in 2020 on their cumulative investment abroad, a 13.0 percent decrease from 2019. Dividends, or repatriated profits, decreased $124.6 billion, or 30.7 percent.

                         Foreign direct investment in the United States (tables 7 – 10)

By country of the foreign parent, five countries accounted for more than half of the total position at the end of 2020. Japan remained the top investing country at the end of 2020 with a position of $647.7 billion. Canada ($490.8 billion) moved up one position from 2019 to be the second largest investing country, moving the United Kingdom ($486.9 billion) into third. The Netherlands ($484.0 billion) and Germany ($411.3 billion) were the fourth and fifth largest investing countries respectively at the end of 2020.

By country of the ultimate beneficial owner (UBO), Japan ($679.0 billion) and Canada ($569.8 billion) remained the top investing countries in terms of position at the end of 2020. Germany ($564.3 billion) moved up one position from 2019 to be the third largest, moving the United Kingdom ($480.8 billion) to fourth. France ($315.0 billion) entered the top 5 investing countries at the end of 2020, moving up one position from 2019. On the UBO basis, investment from the Netherlands and Luxembourg was much lower than by the country of foreign parent, indicating that much of the investment from foreign parents in these countries was ultimately owned by investors in other countries.

Foreign direct investment in the United States was concentrated in the U.S. manufacturing sector, which accounted for 40.3 percent of the position. There was also sizable investment in finance and insurance (12.2 percent) and wholesale trade (11.1 percent).

Foreign MNEs earned income of $151.8 billion in 2020 on their cumulative investment in the United States, a 24.1 percent decrease from 2019.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Finanza e Sistema Bancario

BlackRock. Gli assets hanno passato i 9.5 trilioni di dollari. Da quando è in Cina.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-07-23.

BlackRock 1001

Lo scorso anno BlackRock gestiva 7.32 trilioni di dollari. Un anno dopo ha raggiunto i 9.49 trilioni di dollari

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«BlackRock Inc the world’s largest asset manager, reported a better-than-expected quarterly profit on Wednesday as investors poured more money into the company’s funds, driving robust fee growth and boosting its assets under management to a record high»

«BlackRock’s assets under management jumped to a record $9.49 trillion in the second quarter from $7.32 trillion a year earlier»

«More than ever, our voice is resonating deeper and more broadly with our clients worldwide»

«The company continued to gather assets at a robust pace as investors deployed money across BlackRock’s product types and asset classes»

«The U.S. economy displayed signs of a recovery over the past quarter, helped by large government stimulus»

«Global financial markets continue to display strength a year after the coronavirus pandemic crashed asset prices and hurt risk sentiment»

«People are also focused on where the growth is coming, and the growth is coming in the ETF business, which tends to generate a lower revenue base than the traditional long only asset management business»

«Despite them having $9.5 trillion and being so big, they are still best positioned to deliver the best growth over the next couple of years, relative to their peers»

«The company’s adjusted net income rose to $1.55 billion, or $10.03 per share, in the three months ended June 30, from $1.21 billion, or $7.85 per share, a year earlier»

«Revenue rose 32% to $4.82 billion, helped by higher performance fees and 14% growth in revenue from technology services»

«BlackRock’s shares rose 16% during the quarter ended June 30»

* * * * * * *

Fink, Ceo di BlackRock, ‘this is going to be a pretty big shock’. – Bloomberg

Blackrock. Mr Fink, il vero padrone del mondo.

BlackRock rafforza il controllo della Exxon Mobil Corp.

BlackRock anticipa l’apertura cinese alla finanza occidentale. 3.4 trilioni in tre anni.

BlackRock (7.81tn Usd) continua ad espandersi in Cina, e vi porta i denari occidentali.

I tre giganti. I nuovi discreti padroni dell’Occidente. Nomi quasi ignoti.

Cina. I capitali internazionali acquistano bond cinesi in yuan.

BlackRock, Temasek Set Up China Asset-Management Joint Venture.

* * * * * * *

Mr Larry Fink può dirsi soddisfatto.

Nel breve volgere di un anno ha aumentato gli assets di 2.17 trilioni di dollari.

Cruciale è stata l’apertura ai mercati cinesi, ove BlackRock ha trasferito gran parte delle proprie attività, giusto lo scorso anno.

* * *


BlackRock profit beats as assets grow to a record $9.5 trillion

BlackRock Inc the world’s largest asset manager, reported a better-than-expected quarterly profit on Wednesday as investors poured more money into the company’s funds, driving robust fee growth and boosting its assets under management to a record high.

BlackRock’s assets under management jumped to a record $9.49 trillion in the second quarter from $7.32 trillion a year earlier.

“More than ever, our voice is resonating deeper and more broadly with our clients worldwide,” BlackRock’s chief executive, Larry Fink, said in an interview.

The company continued to gather assets at a robust pace as investors deployed money across BlackRock’s product types and asset classes.

Global equity markets’ strength during the second quarter helped boost both assets under management as well as fee growth.

The U.S. economy displayed signs of a recovery over the past quarter, helped by large government stimulus and steady vaccination programs. Global financial markets continue to display strength a year after the coronavirus pandemic crashed asset prices and hurt risk sentiment.

“It seems like everything is going their way right now. It’s just strength across the entire platform,” said Kyle Sanders, an analyst with St. Louis-based financial services firm Edward Jones.

Despite the better-than-expected results, BlackRock shares fell 3.3% to $877.98, a near 1-week low.

Investors may have been disappointed in net inflows coming in at $81 billion, down from $172 billion in the prior quarter, a drop associated with the loss of a $58 billion equity index mandate from a U.S. pension fund client, analysts said.

“People are also focused on where the growth is coming, and the growth is coming in the ETF business, which tends to generate a lower revenue base than the traditional long only asset management business,” said CFRA Research analyst Cathy Seifert.

A combination of these factors may have spooked investors, Seifert, who still likes the stock and would treat Wednesday’s weakness as a buying opportunity, said.

BlackRock remains well placed to be a leader in the asset management industry, analysts said.

“Despite them having $9.5 trillion and being so big, they are still best positioned to deliver the best growth over the next couple of years, relative to their peers,” Sanders said.

The company’s adjusted net income rose to $1.55 billion, or $10.03 per share, in the three months ended June 30, from $1.21 billion, or $7.85 per share, a year earlier.

Analysts on average had expected a profit of $9.46 per share, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.

Revenue rose 32% to $4.82 billion, helped by higher performance fees and 14% growth in revenue from technology services.

BlackRock’s shares rose 16% during the quarter ended June 30, compared with a 15% gain for a Thomson Reuters index that includes more than a dozen of BlackRock’s industry rivals in the United States.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Stati Uniti

Usa. Wall Street. BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street Corp si son convertiti agli Etf.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-07-20.

Wall Street 013

Così Borsa Italiana definisce gli Etf.

«Gli ETF (acronimo di Exchange Traded Funds) sono fondi o SICAV a basse commissioni di gestione negoziati in Borsa come le normali azioni. Si caratterizzano per il fatto di avere come unico obiettivo quello di replicare fedelmente l’andamento e quindi il rendimento di indici azionari, obbligazionari o di materie prime. 

Il mercato regolamentato gestito da Borsa Italiana e dedicato a questi strumenti si chiama ETFplus.

Nati negli Stati Uniti nei primi anni ’90, gli ETF sono entrati a far parte dei titoli a disposizione degli investitori italiani a partire dal settembre 2002. E da allora hanno conseguito un successo crescente, testimoniato dall’incremento sia dei volumi degli scambi che delle masse in gestione e dal sempre più elevato numero di ETF portati in negoziazione nel mercato ETFplus»

* * * * * * *

Si faccia attenzione.

Comprando azioni di una impresa se ne diventa comproprietari pro quota. In caso di fallimento una qualche cosina la si potrebbe pur sempre ottenere: uno stabilimento industriale è invece un bene reale.

Al contrario, gli Etf hanno per sottostante un ‘indice’, ossia un qualcosa di immateriale. Se scomparissero nel nulla, l’acquirente nulla si troverebbe in mano.

La crisi finanziaria del 2008 evidenzia cosa significa quando una simile bolla esplode. All’epoca vi erano derivati e derivati dei derivati. Una pacchia quando i mercati salivano, perdite secche al momento della crisi.

Sono uno strumento finanziario da utilizzarsi con cautela e circospezione.

* * * * * * *

«A trio of money managers — BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street Corp. — account for roughly 80% of the market, and thanks to the boom, they now control vast chunks of Corporate America»

«Wall Street has surrendered to the $500 billion ETF rush»

«U.S. money managers couldn’t stop the march toward exchange-traded funds, so they decided to join it instead. Now it’s more like a stampede»

«ETFs are on the brink of luring more money in seven months than in any calendar year on record. At $488.5 billion and counting, they’ll likely break the $497 billion full-year record set in 2020 in weeks, possibly days»

«Within that surge is a historic capitulation by the mutual fund industry»

«ETFs just had the best first half of inflows on record

Investors have long been migrating to the cheaper, easier-to-trade and more tax-efficient vehicle. Now even the most-storied money managers are launching ETFs in a bid to stay relevant, and some — like Vanguard Group — are handling their clients’ conversions for them»

«Almost all of the 25 largest asset managers in the U.S. offer an ETF or plan to do so»

«ETFs are vehicles that pool investor cash, just like mutual funds. The difference is they trade all day like stocks, and a quirk in the way they operate — swapping assets with an intermediary — helps them to defer tax liabilities»

«First created more than 30 years ago, their popularity has surged since the 2008 financial crisis»

«investors gravitated to largely passive and transparent ETFs, doubling assets in U.S. funds to $1 trillion by 2010»

«und assets in the U.S. have jumped to a record $6.6 trillion, up from $3.7 trillion at the height of last year’s selloff. ETFs added $497 billion in new cash in 2020, while mutual funds suffered net withdrawals of $506 billion»

«ETFs beat out mutual funds for inflows in recent years»

«Assets have been slowly shifting from Vanguard’s mutual funds to its cheaper ETFs»

«There may be a natural limit to the flood of cash from mutual funds»

«→→ The industry’s exact assets depend on how you define the market, but it still controls in the region of $20 trillion ←←»

«A trio of money managers — BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street Corp. — account for roughly 80% of the market, and thanks to the boom, they now control vast chunks of Corporate America»

«BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street make up majority of ETF industry. This “Big Three” collectively own about 22% of the typical S&P 500 company»

«That’s drawing the attention of regulators and raising concerns about what such dominance means for everything from corporate governance to how markets function»

«Active ETF launches now surpass passive debuts»

* * * * * * *

Pigliamo atto della situazione e della tendenza.

Tuttavia, in questo clima di inflazione crescente e di tapering incombente, saremmo personalmente propensi all’uso di una grande prudenza.

*


Wall Street Has Surrendered to the $500 Billion ETF Rush.

Vanguard leads the way as industry prepares to shatter annual record with months to go.

U.S. money managers couldn’t stop the march toward exchange-traded funds, so they decided to join it instead. Now it’s more like a stampede.

ETFs are on the brink of luring more money in seven months than in any calendar year on record. At $488.5 billion and counting, they’ll likely break the $497 billion full-year record set in 2020 in weeks, possibly days.

Within that surge is a historic capitulation by the mutual fund industry.

                         The Flow Show

ETFs just had the best first half of inflows on record

Investors have long been migrating to the cheaper, easier-to-trade and more tax-efficient vehicle. Now even the most-storied money managers are launching ETFs in a bid to stay relevant, and some — like Vanguard Group — are handling their clients’ conversions for them.

Almost all of the 25 largest asset managers in the U.S. offer an ETF or plan to do so, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Capital Group is the biggest without one — and it intends to join the club before long.

“There’s a format change,” said Eric Balchunas, ETF analyst for BI. “In the same way that people went from buying CDs to using streaming or digital music, or from using cabs to Uber.”

ETFs are vehicles that pool investor cash, just like mutual funds. The difference is they trade all day like stocks, and a quirk in the way they operate — swapping assets with an intermediary — helps them to defer tax liabilities.

First created more than 30 years ago, their popularity has surged since the 2008 financial crisis. In the brutal economic fallout, mistrust of money managers grew and investors gravitated to largely passive and transparent ETFs, doubling assets in U.S. funds to $1 trillion by 2010.

History is now repeating, and the Covid crash last year has triggered another dash into ETFs.

Fund assets in the U.S. have jumped to a record $6.6 trillion, up from $3.7 trillion at the height of last year’s selloff. ETFs added $497 billion in new cash in 2020, while mutual funds suffered net withdrawals of $506 billion.

                         Battle for Assets

ETFs beat out mutual funds for inflows in recent years

“The stress period we lived through in the first quarter of 2020 further validated not just the ETF structure but the ETF ecosystem in its entirety,” said Ben Johnson, Morningstar’s global director of ETF research. “It gave more investors greater confidence than ever that this is a suitable way to package and deliver not just different market exposures, but different investment strategies.”

This year as in 2020, Vanguard is dominating the leaderboard for ETF flows.

Top of the pile is the $239 billion Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (ticker VOO), which has added $29 billion year-to-date, while the $256 billion Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) takes second place with $21.5 billion. BlackRock Inc.’s iShares Core S&P 500 ETF ( IVV) is next with $13.1 billion, then the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) with more than $12 billion.

Much of Vanguard’s performance is down to rock-bottom pricing and ubiquity across trading platforms, but it also reflects an internal migration. Assets have been slowly shifting from Vanguard’s mutual funds to its cheaper ETFs. Of its $173.3 billion in U.S. ETF flows through June, about $10 billion was from conversions, a spokesperson said.

This process is easier for Vanguard than for many money managers because the firm’s unusual structure means its ETFs are a share class of its mutual funds. But others on Wall Street are finding a way.

March saw the first official conversion of a U.S. mutual fund to an ETF. The initial switch was made by a tiny firm, but the process has been rapidly scaled up by pioneering quant giant Dimensional Fund Advisors.

The Austin, Texas-based firm with $637 billion under management has already shifted about $29 billion of assets into ETFs, with more planned. The conversions followed its successful launch of three ETFs late last year, which themselves gathered $1 billion in assets in just a few months.

“It will be paramount that every existing asset manager have a viable ETF strategy moving forward,” said Nate Geraci, president of the ETF Store, an advisory firm. “The asset managers just now joining the ETF party are late, but they can still get in the door. The longer this goes on, the more difficult it is.”

Dimensional is one of numerous Wall Street holdouts including Wells Fargo and T. Rowe Price to finally embrace ETFs after a rule change in 2019 made launches easier and paved the way for structures that hide strategies. That trend has continued in 2021 — famed tech investor Ryan Jacob’s firm Jacob Asset Management became the latest to join the fray on Wednesday.

There may be a natural limit to the flood of cash from mutual funds. The entire U.S. retirement system is built around them, meaning for many portfolios it would be impossible to shift.

At the same time, mutual funds are also sitting on net inflows this year. Equity products have bled $206 billion, but those focused on fixed income — where active money management remains dominant — have added $302 billion, helping create a net $89 billion gain overall. The industry’s exact assets depend on how you define the market, but it still controls in the region of $20 trillion.

Meanwhile, ETFs may yet face constraints. A trio of money managers — BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street Corp. — account for roughly 80% of the market, and thanks to the boom, they now control vast chunks of Corporate America.

                         Big Three

BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street make up majority of ETF industry

This “Big Three” collectively own about 22% of the typical S&P 500 company, according to Bloomberg data, up from 13.5% in 2008. That’s drawing the attention of regulators and raising concerns about what such dominance means for everything from corporate governance to how markets function.

Bigger, more established ETFs tend to attract the lion’s share of flows, so it’s a problem that’s only growing as cash pours in. Equity ETFs have already shattered their annual flow record, luring $372 billion compared with the best-ever $333 billion in 2017.

It’s a feat made possible by the historic stock rally: America’s benchmark gauge, the S&P 500, has repeatedly set all-time highs this year.

“The stock market has been on an incredible journey over the past year,” said Fiona Cincotta, senior financial markets analyst at City Index. “That sense of wanting to get involved and that fear of missing out is a big driver for getting money invested in the market.”

Another big draw has been the star asset manager Cathie Wood. The eight ETFs at her firm, Ark Investment Management, have pulled in $15.3 billion this year amid a frenzy for thematic investments built around trends like robotics or electric vehicles.

Performance helped, too: Wood’s funds were among the best in the U.S. last year. Alongside her success in luring cash, it’s made her the poster child for active management in ETFs.

                         Cathie Effect

Active ETF launches now surpass passive debuts

The number of active fund launches is accelerating dramatically, and with 142 debuts versus 65 for passive products this will be the first year they outnumber their index-linked rivals. Flows help explain the rush: at around 4% of the U.S. market, active ETFs are claiming about 10% of incoming cash.

There are no guarantees the annual ETF flow record will be broken, of course. The second-half of 2021 could sour, and all that new cash could run for the exits. But history suggests it’s unlikely.

ETFs have collectively lost money only two months in the past three years. Even then, outflows are often relatively mild. As the world economy ground to a halt because of the pandemic in March last year and global stock markets crumpled, $357 billion was pulled from U.S. mutual funds. For ETFs, it was more like $17 billion.

“ETFs are an easy button of sorts that you can hit to get exposure to any number of different segments of the market, which draws from a much broader investor base than mutual funds ever had,” said Morningstar’s Johnson.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Finanza e Sistema Bancario

Londra vs Amsterdam per il dominio del mercato europeo dei titoli.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-07-14.

Johnson Boris - Improta 001

«London edges back ahead of Amsterdam as Europe’s trading hub»

«U.K. capital regains crown for first time this year»

«London moved back ahead of Amsterdam as Europe’s largest share trading center in June, reclaiming the top spot for the first time this year after Brexit pushed much of the city’s volumes to the continent»

«An average 8.92 billion euros ($10.6 billion) of shares a day were traded on various London venues in June, compared with 8.8 billion euros for various Dutch venues»

«This compares with about 9.4 billion euros average daily trading value for Amsterdam in May and around 8.7 billion euros in London»

«Paris, the third largest venue, saw its daily trading decline from almost 6.1 billion euros in May to 5.8 billion euros in June.»

«In December, London’s share trading volumes stood at 14.3 billion euros compared to 2.2 billion euros for Amsterdam»

«London has gained some volumes this year from Swiss equity trading, which resumed after the U.K. dropped out of an EU-wide ban»

«The return of Swiss share trading has helped overturn what has been just a temporary phase»

«London will soon regain the status of European and global trading hub and it could easily benefit from being away from the restrictive EU rules»

* * * * * * *

La piazza finanziaria di Londra ha una secolare tradizione di alta qualità e capacità commerciale. La Brexit ha sicuramente indotto un grande scossone, ma alla fine Londra gioca la sua principale carta, un vero e proprio asso nella manica:

«it could easily benefit from being away from the restrictive EU rules»

*


London Edges Back Ahead of Amsterdam as Europe’s Trading Hub

– U.K. capital regains crown for first time this year, Cboe says

– Share trading in London still far below pre-Brexit levels

*

London moved back ahead of Amsterdam as Europe’s largest share trading center in June, reclaiming the top spot for the first time this year after Brexit pushed much of the city’s volumes to the continent.

An average 8.92 billion euros ($10.6 billion) of shares a day were traded on various London venues in June, compared with 8.8 billion euros for various Dutch venues, according to data from Cboe Europe.

This compares with about 9.4 billion euros average daily trading value for Amsterdam in May and around 8.7 billion euros in London. Paris, the third largest venue, saw its daily trading decline from almost 6.1 billion euros in May to 5.8 billion euros in June.

While London’s return to the top spot is a welcome boost for a U.K. finance industry buffeted by Brexit, the city’s lead over Amsterdam is a fraction of what it was before the end of the transition period. In December, London’s share trading volumes stood at 14.3 billion euros compared to 2.2 billion euros for Amsterdam, according to Cboe data.

Britain lost its rights to access the European Union’s single market on Dec. 31 and the bloc has not permitted investors inside its borders to trade shares in companies such as Airbus SE and BNP Paribas SA from the U.K. The EU could eventually reopen access by recognizing the U.K. markets as equivalent to its own, though there is little sign of movement in this process.

London has gained some volumes this year from Swiss equity trading, which resumed after the U.K. dropped out of an EU-wide ban that has been in place since 2019.

The shifts in trading volume between cities is unlikely to have much of an impact on the bottom line for brokers and trading platforms. The region’s biggest players, including the London Stock Exchange Group Plc and Cboe, operate venues in both London and the EU, enabling them to grab a share of the business no matter the location.

But the change is a symbolic fillip for the City and comes the same week that Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak outlined plans to maintain London’s status as a top financial center.

“The return of Swiss share trading has helped overturn what has been just a temporary phase,” said Alberto Tocchio, a portfolio manager at Kairos Partners. “London will soon regain the status of European and global trading hub and it could easily benefit from being away from the restrictive EU rules.”

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Stati Uniti

Wall Street. Crollo delle borse ed vita incerta degli ETF. La grande bolla.

abbattimento torri pinetamare (FOTO L FRATTARI)
abbattimento torri pinetamare (FOTO L FRATTARI)

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-07-10.

«A lot of ETF trades got in front of the big drop in stocks»

«Bearish bets picked up this week, including via leveraged fund»

«An investor pivot to safer assets saw billions on the move»

«Thursday’s stock swoon will have come as no surprise to players in the $6.6 trillion U.S. exchange-traded fund market, judging by their actions in the past few days»

«Months of unbroken bullishness that saw record flows to cyclically-exposed funds is giving way to caution, with bearish bets picking up in the options market and cash diverting to safer assets»

«With a red day unfolding on Wall Street, it all looks prescient»

«Investors pulled $3.9 billion from the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ticker SPY) on Wednesday. That was the biggest exit in two months from the world’s largest exchange-traded fund, and came even as America’s benchmark gauge closed at yet another all-time high»

«At the same time, $322 million — the most since 2019 — was pulled from the $9.4 billion iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Value ETF (IJS), compounding a rough few days for cheaper shares»

«After a strong run for risk-taking in pro-cyclical ETFs for much of the year, investors have taken profits»

«→→ global economic growth could prove weaker than originally expected ←←»

«The largest Treasury product, the $16.6 billion iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), has added almost $1.2 billion in the past six sessions»

«The most interesting telltale signs of a sentiment shift were in the options market»

«Options volume for the ETF are usually light, but on Wednesday more than 50,000 calls expiring July 16 changed hands»

«Meanwhile, investors are shorting the $67.4 billion iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) by the most this year»

* * * * * * *

Anche se gli occhi di tutti (quasi) sono centrati sulle quotazioni delle azioni, il mercato dei derivati è forse ancora più importante.

Mentre le azioni hanno nel bene o nel male un po’ di sottostante nel valore dell’impresa quotata, i derivati non hanno sottostate alcuno: sono un puro gioco di azzardo.

In altri tempi consentivano larghi guadagni, ma quel tempo sembrerebbe essere passato.

Fatto si è che il volume dei derivati è semplicemente impressionante: se questa bolla scoppiasse sarebbero grandi dolori.

*


A Lot of ETF Trades Got in Front of the Big Drop in Stocks

Bearish bets picked up this week, including via leveraged fund

An investor pivot to safer assets saw billions on the move

*

Thursday’s stock swoon will have come as no surprise to players in the $6.6 trillion U.S. exchange-traded fund market, judging by their actions in the past few days.

Months of unbroken bullishness that saw record flows to cyclically-exposed funds is giving way to caution, with bearish bets picking up in the options market and cash diverting to safer assets.

With a red day unfolding on Wall Street, it all looks prescient.

Investors pulled $3.9 billion from the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ticker SPY) on Wednesday. That was the biggest exit in two months from the world’s largest exchange-traded fund, and came even as America’s benchmark gauge closed at yet another all-time high.

At the same time, $322 million — the most since 2019 — was pulled from the $9.4 billion iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Value ETF (IJS), compounding a rough few days for cheaper shares. Value products have now seen $560 million of withdrawals in July, after an unbroken series of monthly inflows since the first coronavirus vaccine breakthrough in November.

“After a strong run for risk-taking in pro-cyclical ETFs for much of the year, investors have taken profits,” said Todd Rosenbluth, head of ETF and mutual fund research at CFRA. The concerns are that “global economic growth could prove weaker than originally expected,” he said.

As equity funds show a re-rotation to more growth-oriented bets, fixed-income ETFs hint at a similar reach for safety.

The largest Treasury product, the $16.6 billion iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), has added almost $1.2 billion in the past six sessions, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. More than half of that was last week — ahead of the almost 15 basis-point plunge in the 10-year yield since Tuesday.

The most interesting telltale signs of a sentiment shift were in the options market. Open interest in bullish calls on SPY dropped to the lowest since 2019 in mid-June and never recovered, signaling a lack of confidence the S&P 500 Index would keep pushing to fresh records — at least in the near term.

More dramatically, there was a sudden burst of activity in options for the ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500 ETF (SPXU). The $542 million product is a leveraged bet against America’s benchmark, aiming to deliver triple the inverse performance of the gauge. It’s been sliding all year as the S&P 500 went from strength to strength.

Options volume for the ETF are usually light, but on Wednesday more than 50,000 calls expiring July 16 changed hands. While it’s impossible to say how the calls are being deployed, theoretically they will rise in value if the S&P 500 falls and the price of SPXU bucks its year-long losing streak.

Meanwhile, investors are shorting the $67.4 billion iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) by the most this year. The percentage of shares in the small-cap fund on loan jumped to more than 11% earlier this week, according to data from IHS Markit Ltd.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Fisco e Tasse

Microsoft. Superati i due trilioni Usd di capitalizzazione.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-07-02.

2021-06-28__ Microsoft 001

Il primo gennaio 2000 le azioni Microsoft erano quotate 48.94. Ad oggi erano quotate 265.02.

*

«Microsoft has officially entered the most elite of clubs: corporations with a market value exceeding $2 trillion»

«The tech giant is only the second publicly traded American company, behind Apple, to reach such a valuation»

«Microsoft’s market capitalization topped $2 trillion during trading on Tuesday, and closed just $300 million shy of that mark. Its stock on Tuesday climbed 1.1% to $265.51»

«The company reached the $2 trillion milestone just over two years after it first passed the $1 trillion market cap mark»

«Microsoft’s stock has gained 64% since March 2020, when pandemic lockdowns began going into effect in the United States.»

«In April, Microsoft reported sales were up 19% year-over-year to $41.7 billion for the three months ended March 31»

«Apple’s market value passed $2 trillion last August, and it currently stands at $2.24 trillion.»

* * * * * * *

Il mondo sociale ed economico non era, e tuttora non è, preparato a gestire entità di codesto livello.

Sono società multinazionali che operano in quasi tutti i paesi del mondo, motivo per cui non possono essere governate dalle leggi di un singolo stato, per potente che possa essere.

Le loro logiche gestionali sono di norma s sé stanti e possono anche differire profondamente da quelle politiche di molte nazioni.

Hanno però due punti deboli.

Operano per lo più nell’enclave occidentale, cui riducono il concetto di ‘mondo’ e sono soggette agli andamenti di borsa, motivo per cui la loro capitalizzazione potrebbe contrarsi qualora le banche centrali iniziassero il tapering.

Ma per l’intanto, se si possono fare buoni affari, li si facciano.

*


Microsoft reaches a $2 trillion market cap

Microsoft has officially entered the most elite of clubs: corporations with a market value exceeding $2 trillion.

The tech giant is only the second publicly traded American company, behind Apple, to reach such a valuation. Oil company Saudi Aramco, which went public in 2019, has also previously passed that mark, though its market cap on Tuesday was $1.88 trillion.

Microsoft’s market capitalization topped $2 trillion during trading on Tuesday, and closed just $300 million shy of that mark. Its stock on Tuesday climbed 1.1% to $265.51.

The company reached the $2 trillion milestone just over two years after it first passed the $1 trillion market cap mark.

Covid-19 helped get it there. The pandemic meant people were spending more time on their devices, boosting demand for Microsoft’s computers, gaming systems and cloud computing platform. And a stock market rally — along with the success of tech companies in particular — lifted its shares.

Microsoft’s stock has gained 64% since March 2020, when pandemic lockdowns began going into effect in the United States.

In April, Microsoft reported sales were up 19% year-over-year to $41.7 billion for the three months ended March 31.

“Over a year into the pandemic, digital adoption curves aren’t slowing down,” CEO Satya Nadella said in a statement at the time. “We are building the cloud for the next decade, expanding our addressable market and innovating across every layer of the tech stack to help our customers be resilient and transform.”

Apple’s market value passed $2 trillion last August, and it currently stands at $2.24 trillion. Now, Microsoft has joined its ranks, with two other Big Tech firms, Amazon and Google, nipping at their heels. Amazon’s market cap hit $1.77 trillion on Tuesday, and Google parent Alphabet’s reached $1.67 trillion.