Pubblicato in: Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Stati Uniti

Usa. 2020. Investimenti diretti per stato e tipologia. – BEA.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-04.

2021-07-27__ US Investment 001

Il Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) ha rilasciato il Report Direct Investment by Country and Industry, 2020

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The U.S. direct investment abroad  position, or cumulative level of investment, increased $244.9 billion to $6.15 trillion at the end of 2020 from $5.91 trillion at the end of 2019, according to statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The increase reflected a $158.8 billion increase in the position in Europe, primarily in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands. By industry, holding company affiliates owned by U.S. manufacturers had the largest increase.

The foreign direct investment in the United States position increased $187.2 billion to $4.63 trillion at the end of 2020 from $4.44 trillion at the end of 2019. The increase mainly reflected a $119.2 billion increase in the position from Europe, primarily Germany. By industry, affiliates in manufacturing, finance and insurance, and wholesale trade accounted for the majority of the increase.

                         U.S. direct investment abroad (tables 1 – 6)

U.S. multinational enterprises (MNEs) invest in nearly every country, but their investment in affiliates in five countries accounted for more than half of the total position at the end of 2020. The U.S. direct investment abroad position was largest in the United Kingdom ($890.1 billion), followed by the Netherlands ($844.0 billion) and Luxembourg ($759.4 billion). Canada ($422.2 billion) and Ireland ($390.3 billion) rounded out the top-five.

By industry of the directly-owned foreign affiliate, investment was highly concentrated in holding companies, which accounted for nearly half of the overall position in 2020. Most holding company affiliates, which are owned by U.S. parents from a variety of industries, own other foreign affiliates that operate in a variety of industries. By industry of the U.S. parent, investment by manufacturing MNEs accounted for 51.6 percent of the position, followed by MNEs in finance and insurance (13.9 percent).

U.S. MNEs earned income of $452.0 billion in 2020 on their cumulative investment abroad, a 13.0 percent decrease from 2019. Dividends, or repatriated profits, decreased $124.6 billion, or 30.7 percent.

                         Foreign direct investment in the United States (tables 7 – 10)

By country of the foreign parent, five countries accounted for more than half of the total position at the end of 2020. Japan remained the top investing country at the end of 2020 with a position of $647.7 billion. Canada ($490.8 billion) moved up one position from 2019 to be the second largest investing country, moving the United Kingdom ($486.9 billion) into third. The Netherlands ($484.0 billion) and Germany ($411.3 billion) were the fourth and fifth largest investing countries respectively at the end of 2020.

By country of the ultimate beneficial owner (UBO), Japan ($679.0 billion) and Canada ($569.8 billion) remained the top investing countries in terms of position at the end of 2020. Germany ($564.3 billion) moved up one position from 2019 to be the third largest, moving the United Kingdom ($480.8 billion) to fourth. France ($315.0 billion) entered the top 5 investing countries at the end of 2020, moving up one position from 2019. On the UBO basis, investment from the Netherlands and Luxembourg was much lower than by the country of foreign parent, indicating that much of the investment from foreign parents in these countries was ultimately owned by investors in other countries.

Foreign direct investment in the United States was concentrated in the U.S. manufacturing sector, which accounted for 40.3 percent of the position. There was also sizable investment in finance and insurance (12.2 percent) and wholesale trade (11.1 percent).

Foreign MNEs earned income of $151.8 billion in 2020 on their cumulative investment in the United States, a 24.1 percent decrease from 2019.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Finanza e Sistema Bancario

BlackRock. Gli assets hanno passato i 9.5 trilioni di dollari. Da quando è in Cina.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-07-23.

BlackRock 1001

Lo scorso anno BlackRock gestiva 7.32 trilioni di dollari. Un anno dopo ha raggiunto i 9.49 trilioni di dollari

* * * * * * *

«BlackRock Inc the world’s largest asset manager, reported a better-than-expected quarterly profit on Wednesday as investors poured more money into the company’s funds, driving robust fee growth and boosting its assets under management to a record high»

«BlackRock’s assets under management jumped to a record $9.49 trillion in the second quarter from $7.32 trillion a year earlier»

«More than ever, our voice is resonating deeper and more broadly with our clients worldwide»

«The company continued to gather assets at a robust pace as investors deployed money across BlackRock’s product types and asset classes»

«The U.S. economy displayed signs of a recovery over the past quarter, helped by large government stimulus»

«Global financial markets continue to display strength a year after the coronavirus pandemic crashed asset prices and hurt risk sentiment»

«People are also focused on where the growth is coming, and the growth is coming in the ETF business, which tends to generate a lower revenue base than the traditional long only asset management business»

«Despite them having $9.5 trillion and being so big, they are still best positioned to deliver the best growth over the next couple of years, relative to their peers»

«The company’s adjusted net income rose to $1.55 billion, or $10.03 per share, in the three months ended June 30, from $1.21 billion, or $7.85 per share, a year earlier»

«Revenue rose 32% to $4.82 billion, helped by higher performance fees and 14% growth in revenue from technology services»

«BlackRock’s shares rose 16% during the quarter ended June 30»

* * * * * * *

Fink, Ceo di BlackRock, ‘this is going to be a pretty big shock’. – Bloomberg

Blackrock. Mr Fink, il vero padrone del mondo.

BlackRock rafforza il controllo della Exxon Mobil Corp.

BlackRock anticipa l’apertura cinese alla finanza occidentale. 3.4 trilioni in tre anni.

BlackRock (7.81tn Usd) continua ad espandersi in Cina, e vi porta i denari occidentali.

I tre giganti. I nuovi discreti padroni dell’Occidente. Nomi quasi ignoti.

Cina. I capitali internazionali acquistano bond cinesi in yuan.

BlackRock, Temasek Set Up China Asset-Management Joint Venture.

* * * * * * *

Mr Larry Fink può dirsi soddisfatto.

Nel breve volgere di un anno ha aumentato gli assets di 2.17 trilioni di dollari.

Cruciale è stata l’apertura ai mercati cinesi, ove BlackRock ha trasferito gran parte delle proprie attività, giusto lo scorso anno.

* * *


BlackRock profit beats as assets grow to a record $9.5 trillion

BlackRock Inc the world’s largest asset manager, reported a better-than-expected quarterly profit on Wednesday as investors poured more money into the company’s funds, driving robust fee growth and boosting its assets under management to a record high.

BlackRock’s assets under management jumped to a record $9.49 trillion in the second quarter from $7.32 trillion a year earlier.

“More than ever, our voice is resonating deeper and more broadly with our clients worldwide,” BlackRock’s chief executive, Larry Fink, said in an interview.

The company continued to gather assets at a robust pace as investors deployed money across BlackRock’s product types and asset classes.

Global equity markets’ strength during the second quarter helped boost both assets under management as well as fee growth.

The U.S. economy displayed signs of a recovery over the past quarter, helped by large government stimulus and steady vaccination programs. Global financial markets continue to display strength a year after the coronavirus pandemic crashed asset prices and hurt risk sentiment.

“It seems like everything is going their way right now. It’s just strength across the entire platform,” said Kyle Sanders, an analyst with St. Louis-based financial services firm Edward Jones.

Despite the better-than-expected results, BlackRock shares fell 3.3% to $877.98, a near 1-week low.

Investors may have been disappointed in net inflows coming in at $81 billion, down from $172 billion in the prior quarter, a drop associated with the loss of a $58 billion equity index mandate from a U.S. pension fund client, analysts said.

“People are also focused on where the growth is coming, and the growth is coming in the ETF business, which tends to generate a lower revenue base than the traditional long only asset management business,” said CFRA Research analyst Cathy Seifert.

A combination of these factors may have spooked investors, Seifert, who still likes the stock and would treat Wednesday’s weakness as a buying opportunity, said.

BlackRock remains well placed to be a leader in the asset management industry, analysts said.

“Despite them having $9.5 trillion and being so big, they are still best positioned to deliver the best growth over the next couple of years, relative to their peers,” Sanders said.

The company’s adjusted net income rose to $1.55 billion, or $10.03 per share, in the three months ended June 30, from $1.21 billion, or $7.85 per share, a year earlier.

Analysts on average had expected a profit of $9.46 per share, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.

Revenue rose 32% to $4.82 billion, helped by higher performance fees and 14% growth in revenue from technology services.

BlackRock’s shares rose 16% during the quarter ended June 30, compared with a 15% gain for a Thomson Reuters index that includes more than a dozen of BlackRock’s industry rivals in the United States.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Stati Uniti

Usa. Wall Street. BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street Corp si son convertiti agli Etf.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-07-20.

Wall Street 013

Così Borsa Italiana definisce gli Etf.

«Gli ETF (acronimo di Exchange Traded Funds) sono fondi o SICAV a basse commissioni di gestione negoziati in Borsa come le normali azioni. Si caratterizzano per il fatto di avere come unico obiettivo quello di replicare fedelmente l’andamento e quindi il rendimento di indici azionari, obbligazionari o di materie prime. 

Il mercato regolamentato gestito da Borsa Italiana e dedicato a questi strumenti si chiama ETFplus.

Nati negli Stati Uniti nei primi anni ’90, gli ETF sono entrati a far parte dei titoli a disposizione degli investitori italiani a partire dal settembre 2002. E da allora hanno conseguito un successo crescente, testimoniato dall’incremento sia dei volumi degli scambi che delle masse in gestione e dal sempre più elevato numero di ETF portati in negoziazione nel mercato ETFplus»

* * * * * * *

Si faccia attenzione.

Comprando azioni di una impresa se ne diventa comproprietari pro quota. In caso di fallimento una qualche cosina la si potrebbe pur sempre ottenere: uno stabilimento industriale è invece un bene reale.

Al contrario, gli Etf hanno per sottostante un ‘indice’, ossia un qualcosa di immateriale. Se scomparissero nel nulla, l’acquirente nulla si troverebbe in mano.

La crisi finanziaria del 2008 evidenzia cosa significa quando una simile bolla esplode. All’epoca vi erano derivati e derivati dei derivati. Una pacchia quando i mercati salivano, perdite secche al momento della crisi.

Sono uno strumento finanziario da utilizzarsi con cautela e circospezione.

* * * * * * *

«A trio of money managers — BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street Corp. — account for roughly 80% of the market, and thanks to the boom, they now control vast chunks of Corporate America»

«Wall Street has surrendered to the $500 billion ETF rush»

«U.S. money managers couldn’t stop the march toward exchange-traded funds, so they decided to join it instead. Now it’s more like a stampede»

«ETFs are on the brink of luring more money in seven months than in any calendar year on record. At $488.5 billion and counting, they’ll likely break the $497 billion full-year record set in 2020 in weeks, possibly days»

«Within that surge is a historic capitulation by the mutual fund industry»

«ETFs just had the best first half of inflows on record

Investors have long been migrating to the cheaper, easier-to-trade and more tax-efficient vehicle. Now even the most-storied money managers are launching ETFs in a bid to stay relevant, and some — like Vanguard Group — are handling their clients’ conversions for them»

«Almost all of the 25 largest asset managers in the U.S. offer an ETF or plan to do so»

«ETFs are vehicles that pool investor cash, just like mutual funds. The difference is they trade all day like stocks, and a quirk in the way they operate — swapping assets with an intermediary — helps them to defer tax liabilities»

«First created more than 30 years ago, their popularity has surged since the 2008 financial crisis»

«investors gravitated to largely passive and transparent ETFs, doubling assets in U.S. funds to $1 trillion by 2010»

«und assets in the U.S. have jumped to a record $6.6 trillion, up from $3.7 trillion at the height of last year’s selloff. ETFs added $497 billion in new cash in 2020, while mutual funds suffered net withdrawals of $506 billion»

«ETFs beat out mutual funds for inflows in recent years»

«Assets have been slowly shifting from Vanguard’s mutual funds to its cheaper ETFs»

«There may be a natural limit to the flood of cash from mutual funds»

«→→ The industry’s exact assets depend on how you define the market, but it still controls in the region of $20 trillion ←←»

«A trio of money managers — BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street Corp. — account for roughly 80% of the market, and thanks to the boom, they now control vast chunks of Corporate America»

«BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street make up majority of ETF industry. This “Big Three” collectively own about 22% of the typical S&P 500 company»

«That’s drawing the attention of regulators and raising concerns about what such dominance means for everything from corporate governance to how markets function»

«Active ETF launches now surpass passive debuts»

* * * * * * *

Pigliamo atto della situazione e della tendenza.

Tuttavia, in questo clima di inflazione crescente e di tapering incombente, saremmo personalmente propensi all’uso di una grande prudenza.

*


Wall Street Has Surrendered to the $500 Billion ETF Rush.

Vanguard leads the way as industry prepares to shatter annual record with months to go.

U.S. money managers couldn’t stop the march toward exchange-traded funds, so they decided to join it instead. Now it’s more like a stampede.

ETFs are on the brink of luring more money in seven months than in any calendar year on record. At $488.5 billion and counting, they’ll likely break the $497 billion full-year record set in 2020 in weeks, possibly days.

Within that surge is a historic capitulation by the mutual fund industry.

                         The Flow Show

ETFs just had the best first half of inflows on record

Investors have long been migrating to the cheaper, easier-to-trade and more tax-efficient vehicle. Now even the most-storied money managers are launching ETFs in a bid to stay relevant, and some — like Vanguard Group — are handling their clients’ conversions for them.

Almost all of the 25 largest asset managers in the U.S. offer an ETF or plan to do so, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Capital Group is the biggest without one — and it intends to join the club before long.

“There’s a format change,” said Eric Balchunas, ETF analyst for BI. “In the same way that people went from buying CDs to using streaming or digital music, or from using cabs to Uber.”

ETFs are vehicles that pool investor cash, just like mutual funds. The difference is they trade all day like stocks, and a quirk in the way they operate — swapping assets with an intermediary — helps them to defer tax liabilities.

First created more than 30 years ago, their popularity has surged since the 2008 financial crisis. In the brutal economic fallout, mistrust of money managers grew and investors gravitated to largely passive and transparent ETFs, doubling assets in U.S. funds to $1 trillion by 2010.

History is now repeating, and the Covid crash last year has triggered another dash into ETFs.

Fund assets in the U.S. have jumped to a record $6.6 trillion, up from $3.7 trillion at the height of last year’s selloff. ETFs added $497 billion in new cash in 2020, while mutual funds suffered net withdrawals of $506 billion.

                         Battle for Assets

ETFs beat out mutual funds for inflows in recent years

“The stress period we lived through in the first quarter of 2020 further validated not just the ETF structure but the ETF ecosystem in its entirety,” said Ben Johnson, Morningstar’s global director of ETF research. “It gave more investors greater confidence than ever that this is a suitable way to package and deliver not just different market exposures, but different investment strategies.”

This year as in 2020, Vanguard is dominating the leaderboard for ETF flows.

Top of the pile is the $239 billion Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (ticker VOO), which has added $29 billion year-to-date, while the $256 billion Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) takes second place with $21.5 billion. BlackRock Inc.’s iShares Core S&P 500 ETF ( IVV) is next with $13.1 billion, then the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) with more than $12 billion.

Much of Vanguard’s performance is down to rock-bottom pricing and ubiquity across trading platforms, but it also reflects an internal migration. Assets have been slowly shifting from Vanguard’s mutual funds to its cheaper ETFs. Of its $173.3 billion in U.S. ETF flows through June, about $10 billion was from conversions, a spokesperson said.

This process is easier for Vanguard than for many money managers because the firm’s unusual structure means its ETFs are a share class of its mutual funds. But others on Wall Street are finding a way.

March saw the first official conversion of a U.S. mutual fund to an ETF. The initial switch was made by a tiny firm, but the process has been rapidly scaled up by pioneering quant giant Dimensional Fund Advisors.

The Austin, Texas-based firm with $637 billion under management has already shifted about $29 billion of assets into ETFs, with more planned. The conversions followed its successful launch of three ETFs late last year, which themselves gathered $1 billion in assets in just a few months.

“It will be paramount that every existing asset manager have a viable ETF strategy moving forward,” said Nate Geraci, president of the ETF Store, an advisory firm. “The asset managers just now joining the ETF party are late, but they can still get in the door. The longer this goes on, the more difficult it is.”

Dimensional is one of numerous Wall Street holdouts including Wells Fargo and T. Rowe Price to finally embrace ETFs after a rule change in 2019 made launches easier and paved the way for structures that hide strategies. That trend has continued in 2021 — famed tech investor Ryan Jacob’s firm Jacob Asset Management became the latest to join the fray on Wednesday.

There may be a natural limit to the flood of cash from mutual funds. The entire U.S. retirement system is built around them, meaning for many portfolios it would be impossible to shift.

At the same time, mutual funds are also sitting on net inflows this year. Equity products have bled $206 billion, but those focused on fixed income — where active money management remains dominant — have added $302 billion, helping create a net $89 billion gain overall. The industry’s exact assets depend on how you define the market, but it still controls in the region of $20 trillion.

Meanwhile, ETFs may yet face constraints. A trio of money managers — BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street Corp. — account for roughly 80% of the market, and thanks to the boom, they now control vast chunks of Corporate America.

                         Big Three

BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street make up majority of ETF industry

This “Big Three” collectively own about 22% of the typical S&P 500 company, according to Bloomberg data, up from 13.5% in 2008. That’s drawing the attention of regulators and raising concerns about what such dominance means for everything from corporate governance to how markets function.

Bigger, more established ETFs tend to attract the lion’s share of flows, so it’s a problem that’s only growing as cash pours in. Equity ETFs have already shattered their annual flow record, luring $372 billion compared with the best-ever $333 billion in 2017.

It’s a feat made possible by the historic stock rally: America’s benchmark gauge, the S&P 500, has repeatedly set all-time highs this year.

“The stock market has been on an incredible journey over the past year,” said Fiona Cincotta, senior financial markets analyst at City Index. “That sense of wanting to get involved and that fear of missing out is a big driver for getting money invested in the market.”

Another big draw has been the star asset manager Cathie Wood. The eight ETFs at her firm, Ark Investment Management, have pulled in $15.3 billion this year amid a frenzy for thematic investments built around trends like robotics or electric vehicles.

Performance helped, too: Wood’s funds were among the best in the U.S. last year. Alongside her success in luring cash, it’s made her the poster child for active management in ETFs.

                         Cathie Effect

Active ETF launches now surpass passive debuts

The number of active fund launches is accelerating dramatically, and with 142 debuts versus 65 for passive products this will be the first year they outnumber their index-linked rivals. Flows help explain the rush: at around 4% of the U.S. market, active ETFs are claiming about 10% of incoming cash.

There are no guarantees the annual ETF flow record will be broken, of course. The second-half of 2021 could sour, and all that new cash could run for the exits. But history suggests it’s unlikely.

ETFs have collectively lost money only two months in the past three years. Even then, outflows are often relatively mild. As the world economy ground to a halt because of the pandemic in March last year and global stock markets crumpled, $357 billion was pulled from U.S. mutual funds. For ETFs, it was more like $17 billion.

“ETFs are an easy button of sorts that you can hit to get exposure to any number of different segments of the market, which draws from a much broader investor base than mutual funds ever had,” said Morningstar’s Johnson.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Finanza e Sistema Bancario

Londra vs Amsterdam per il dominio del mercato europeo dei titoli.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-07-14.

Johnson Boris - Improta 001

«London edges back ahead of Amsterdam as Europe’s trading hub»

«U.K. capital regains crown for first time this year»

«London moved back ahead of Amsterdam as Europe’s largest share trading center in June, reclaiming the top spot for the first time this year after Brexit pushed much of the city’s volumes to the continent»

«An average 8.92 billion euros ($10.6 billion) of shares a day were traded on various London venues in June, compared with 8.8 billion euros for various Dutch venues»

«This compares with about 9.4 billion euros average daily trading value for Amsterdam in May and around 8.7 billion euros in London»

«Paris, the third largest venue, saw its daily trading decline from almost 6.1 billion euros in May to 5.8 billion euros in June.»

«In December, London’s share trading volumes stood at 14.3 billion euros compared to 2.2 billion euros for Amsterdam»

«London has gained some volumes this year from Swiss equity trading, which resumed after the U.K. dropped out of an EU-wide ban»

«The return of Swiss share trading has helped overturn what has been just a temporary phase»

«London will soon regain the status of European and global trading hub and it could easily benefit from being away from the restrictive EU rules»

* * * * * * *

La piazza finanziaria di Londra ha una secolare tradizione di alta qualità e capacità commerciale. La Brexit ha sicuramente indotto un grande scossone, ma alla fine Londra gioca la sua principale carta, un vero e proprio asso nella manica:

«it could easily benefit from being away from the restrictive EU rules»

*


London Edges Back Ahead of Amsterdam as Europe’s Trading Hub

– U.K. capital regains crown for first time this year, Cboe says

– Share trading in London still far below pre-Brexit levels

*

London moved back ahead of Amsterdam as Europe’s largest share trading center in June, reclaiming the top spot for the first time this year after Brexit pushed much of the city’s volumes to the continent.

An average 8.92 billion euros ($10.6 billion) of shares a day were traded on various London venues in June, compared with 8.8 billion euros for various Dutch venues, according to data from Cboe Europe.

This compares with about 9.4 billion euros average daily trading value for Amsterdam in May and around 8.7 billion euros in London. Paris, the third largest venue, saw its daily trading decline from almost 6.1 billion euros in May to 5.8 billion euros in June.

While London’s return to the top spot is a welcome boost for a U.K. finance industry buffeted by Brexit, the city’s lead over Amsterdam is a fraction of what it was before the end of the transition period. In December, London’s share trading volumes stood at 14.3 billion euros compared to 2.2 billion euros for Amsterdam, according to Cboe data.

Britain lost its rights to access the European Union’s single market on Dec. 31 and the bloc has not permitted investors inside its borders to trade shares in companies such as Airbus SE and BNP Paribas SA from the U.K. The EU could eventually reopen access by recognizing the U.K. markets as equivalent to its own, though there is little sign of movement in this process.

London has gained some volumes this year from Swiss equity trading, which resumed after the U.K. dropped out of an EU-wide ban that has been in place since 2019.

The shifts in trading volume between cities is unlikely to have much of an impact on the bottom line for brokers and trading platforms. The region’s biggest players, including the London Stock Exchange Group Plc and Cboe, operate venues in both London and the EU, enabling them to grab a share of the business no matter the location.

But the change is a symbolic fillip for the City and comes the same week that Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak outlined plans to maintain London’s status as a top financial center.

“The return of Swiss share trading has helped overturn what has been just a temporary phase,” said Alberto Tocchio, a portfolio manager at Kairos Partners. “London will soon regain the status of European and global trading hub and it could easily benefit from being away from the restrictive EU rules.”

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Stati Uniti

Wall Street. Crollo delle borse ed vita incerta degli ETF. La grande bolla.

abbattimento torri pinetamare (FOTO L FRATTARI)
abbattimento torri pinetamare (FOTO L FRATTARI)

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-07-10.

«A lot of ETF trades got in front of the big drop in stocks»

«Bearish bets picked up this week, including via leveraged fund»

«An investor pivot to safer assets saw billions on the move»

«Thursday’s stock swoon will have come as no surprise to players in the $6.6 trillion U.S. exchange-traded fund market, judging by their actions in the past few days»

«Months of unbroken bullishness that saw record flows to cyclically-exposed funds is giving way to caution, with bearish bets picking up in the options market and cash diverting to safer assets»

«With a red day unfolding on Wall Street, it all looks prescient»

«Investors pulled $3.9 billion from the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ticker SPY) on Wednesday. That was the biggest exit in two months from the world’s largest exchange-traded fund, and came even as America’s benchmark gauge closed at yet another all-time high»

«At the same time, $322 million — the most since 2019 — was pulled from the $9.4 billion iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Value ETF (IJS), compounding a rough few days for cheaper shares»

«After a strong run for risk-taking in pro-cyclical ETFs for much of the year, investors have taken profits»

«→→ global economic growth could prove weaker than originally expected ←←»

«The largest Treasury product, the $16.6 billion iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), has added almost $1.2 billion in the past six sessions»

«The most interesting telltale signs of a sentiment shift were in the options market»

«Options volume for the ETF are usually light, but on Wednesday more than 50,000 calls expiring July 16 changed hands»

«Meanwhile, investors are shorting the $67.4 billion iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) by the most this year»

* * * * * * *

Anche se gli occhi di tutti (quasi) sono centrati sulle quotazioni delle azioni, il mercato dei derivati è forse ancora più importante.

Mentre le azioni hanno nel bene o nel male un po’ di sottostante nel valore dell’impresa quotata, i derivati non hanno sottostate alcuno: sono un puro gioco di azzardo.

In altri tempi consentivano larghi guadagni, ma quel tempo sembrerebbe essere passato.

Fatto si è che il volume dei derivati è semplicemente impressionante: se questa bolla scoppiasse sarebbero grandi dolori.

*


A Lot of ETF Trades Got in Front of the Big Drop in Stocks

Bearish bets picked up this week, including via leveraged fund

An investor pivot to safer assets saw billions on the move

*

Thursday’s stock swoon will have come as no surprise to players in the $6.6 trillion U.S. exchange-traded fund market, judging by their actions in the past few days.

Months of unbroken bullishness that saw record flows to cyclically-exposed funds is giving way to caution, with bearish bets picking up in the options market and cash diverting to safer assets.

With a red day unfolding on Wall Street, it all looks prescient.

Investors pulled $3.9 billion from the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ticker SPY) on Wednesday. That was the biggest exit in two months from the world’s largest exchange-traded fund, and came even as America’s benchmark gauge closed at yet another all-time high.

At the same time, $322 million — the most since 2019 — was pulled from the $9.4 billion iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Value ETF (IJS), compounding a rough few days for cheaper shares. Value products have now seen $560 million of withdrawals in July, after an unbroken series of monthly inflows since the first coronavirus vaccine breakthrough in November.

“After a strong run for risk-taking in pro-cyclical ETFs for much of the year, investors have taken profits,” said Todd Rosenbluth, head of ETF and mutual fund research at CFRA. The concerns are that “global economic growth could prove weaker than originally expected,” he said.

As equity funds show a re-rotation to more growth-oriented bets, fixed-income ETFs hint at a similar reach for safety.

The largest Treasury product, the $16.6 billion iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), has added almost $1.2 billion in the past six sessions, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. More than half of that was last week — ahead of the almost 15 basis-point plunge in the 10-year yield since Tuesday.

The most interesting telltale signs of a sentiment shift were in the options market. Open interest in bullish calls on SPY dropped to the lowest since 2019 in mid-June and never recovered, signaling a lack of confidence the S&P 500 Index would keep pushing to fresh records — at least in the near term.

More dramatically, there was a sudden burst of activity in options for the ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500 ETF (SPXU). The $542 million product is a leveraged bet against America’s benchmark, aiming to deliver triple the inverse performance of the gauge. It’s been sliding all year as the S&P 500 went from strength to strength.

Options volume for the ETF are usually light, but on Wednesday more than 50,000 calls expiring July 16 changed hands. While it’s impossible to say how the calls are being deployed, theoretically they will rise in value if the S&P 500 falls and the price of SPXU bucks its year-long losing streak.

Meanwhile, investors are shorting the $67.4 billion iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) by the most this year. The percentage of shares in the small-cap fund on loan jumped to more than 11% earlier this week, according to data from IHS Markit Ltd.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Fisco e Tasse

Microsoft. Superati i due trilioni Usd di capitalizzazione.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-07-02.

2021-06-28__ Microsoft 001

Il primo gennaio 2000 le azioni Microsoft erano quotate 48.94. Ad oggi erano quotate 265.02.

*

«Microsoft has officially entered the most elite of clubs: corporations with a market value exceeding $2 trillion»

«The tech giant is only the second publicly traded American company, behind Apple, to reach such a valuation»

«Microsoft’s market capitalization topped $2 trillion during trading on Tuesday, and closed just $300 million shy of that mark. Its stock on Tuesday climbed 1.1% to $265.51»

«The company reached the $2 trillion milestone just over two years after it first passed the $1 trillion market cap mark»

«Microsoft’s stock has gained 64% since March 2020, when pandemic lockdowns began going into effect in the United States.»

«In April, Microsoft reported sales were up 19% year-over-year to $41.7 billion for the three months ended March 31»

«Apple’s market value passed $2 trillion last August, and it currently stands at $2.24 trillion.»

* * * * * * *

Il mondo sociale ed economico non era, e tuttora non è, preparato a gestire entità di codesto livello.

Sono società multinazionali che operano in quasi tutti i paesi del mondo, motivo per cui non possono essere governate dalle leggi di un singolo stato, per potente che possa essere.

Le loro logiche gestionali sono di norma s sé stanti e possono anche differire profondamente da quelle politiche di molte nazioni.

Hanno però due punti deboli.

Operano per lo più nell’enclave occidentale, cui riducono il concetto di ‘mondo’ e sono soggette agli andamenti di borsa, motivo per cui la loro capitalizzazione potrebbe contrarsi qualora le banche centrali iniziassero il tapering.

Ma per l’intanto, se si possono fare buoni affari, li si facciano.

*


Microsoft reaches a $2 trillion market cap

Microsoft has officially entered the most elite of clubs: corporations with a market value exceeding $2 trillion.

The tech giant is only the second publicly traded American company, behind Apple, to reach such a valuation. Oil company Saudi Aramco, which went public in 2019, has also previously passed that mark, though its market cap on Tuesday was $1.88 trillion.

Microsoft’s market capitalization topped $2 trillion during trading on Tuesday, and closed just $300 million shy of that mark. Its stock on Tuesday climbed 1.1% to $265.51.

The company reached the $2 trillion milestone just over two years after it first passed the $1 trillion market cap mark.

Covid-19 helped get it there. The pandemic meant people were spending more time on their devices, boosting demand for Microsoft’s computers, gaming systems and cloud computing platform. And a stock market rally — along with the success of tech companies in particular — lifted its shares.

Microsoft’s stock has gained 64% since March 2020, when pandemic lockdowns began going into effect in the United States.

In April, Microsoft reported sales were up 19% year-over-year to $41.7 billion for the three months ended March 31.

“Over a year into the pandemic, digital adoption curves aren’t slowing down,” CEO Satya Nadella said in a statement at the time. “We are building the cloud for the next decade, expanding our addressable market and innovating across every layer of the tech stack to help our customers be resilient and transform.”

Apple’s market value passed $2 trillion last August, and it currently stands at $2.24 trillion. Now, Microsoft has joined its ranks, with two other Big Tech firms, Amazon and Google, nipping at their heels. Amazon’s market cap hit $1.77 trillion on Tuesday, and Google parent Alphabet’s reached $1.67 trillion.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Finanza e Sistema Bancario

Asia. Maggio21. Investimenti Esteri in Bond in valuta locale.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-06-23.

2021-06-15___ Asia Investimenti Esteri 001

«Foreigners were net buyers of Asian bonds in May»

«last month, however, the net purchases in Asian bonds were the lowest in four months»

«Overseas investors bought a net $4.7 billion worth of Asian bonds last month»

«Foreigners purchased a net $5 billion worth of South Korean bonds, marking a fifth straight month of inflows»

«Because of South Korea’s strong growth recovery and shorter timeline to policy lift-off, 10Y Korean bond yields have been trading at historically wide spreads to U.S. Treasuries and other peer EM low-yielders»

«Malaysian bonds also attracted $453 million worth of foreign money»

«Indonesia and Indian bonds faced outflows worth $501 million and $237 million»

2021-06-15___ Asia Investimenti Esteri 002

* * * * * * *


 

Foreign investors buy Asian bonds in May as U.S. yields drop.

Foreigners were net buyers of Asian bonds in May, helped by a drop in U.S. bond yields and a recovery in the region’s economic activity.

The bond inflows were in contrast to the outflows experienced by regional equity markets last month, however, the net purchases in Asian bonds were the lowest in four months due to worries over a resurgence of regional coronavirus cases.

Overseas investors bought a net $4.7 billion worth of Asian bonds last month, the lowest since January this year, data from regulatory authorities and bond market associations showed.

Foreigners purchased a net $5 billion worth of South Korean bonds, marking a fifth straight month of inflows. That pushed the holdings of overseas investors in South Korean bonds to 8.3% at the end of May, the highest since at least 2014.

“Because of South Korea’s strong growth recovery and shorter timeline to policy lift-off, 10Y Korean bond yields have been trading at historically wide spreads to U.S. Treasuries and other peer EM low-yielders,” said Duncan Tan, a strategist at DBS Bank.

“Even on an FX-hedged basis, Korean bonds also continue to offer consistently high pick-ups over U.S. Treasuries.”

Malaysian bonds also attracted $453 million worth of foreign money, which was the 13th consecutive inflow.

On the other hand, Indonesia and Indian bonds faced outflows worth $501 million and $237 million, respectively.

Jennifer Kusuma, Asia rates strategist at ANZ, said she sees more room for foreign investor flows into the region, facilitated by improving global risk sentiment and as vaccination drives gather pace in a number of economies in Asia.

“For the region, the improved performance of Chinese asset markets may also develop into a fresh driver of strength. We expect better buying interest for LCY (local currency) bonds near term,” she said.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Devoluzione socialismo, Finanza e Sistema Bancario

Cina. Maggio21. Investimenti diretti esteri +35.40%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-06-16.

2021-06-16__ Cina - Investimenti diretti esteri 001

China Passes U.S. As No. 1 Destination For Foreign Investment As Coronavirus Upends Global Economy

«As the world struggled to contain the coronavirus crisis, foreign direct investment in the United States plummeted 49% in 2020 while investment in China rose 4%, making China the largest recipient of foreign inflows for the first time, according to a report released Sunday by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development»

*

China takes new foreign investment top spot from US

«New investments into America from overseas companies fell by almost half last year, leading to the loss of its number one status. …. The top ranking shows China’s growing influence on the world economic stage …. This reflects the decades it has spent as the most attractive location for foreign businesses looking to expand overseas»

* * * * * * *

Cina. Saranno bandite ditte ed istituzioni implicate nelle sanzioni occidentali.

Cina manda un severo warning al G7. Un ‘piccolo gruppo’ non può governare il mondo.

Cina. Maggio21. Import +51.1%, Export +27.9%, anno su anno.

BlackRock (7.81tn Usd) continua ad espandersi in Cina, e vi porta i denari occidentali.

Cina. Aprile21. Investimenti Diretti Esteri +38.60%.

*

Stiamo assistendo ad una sempre più ampia scissura tra i comportamenti politici dei governi dell’enclave liberal socialista occidentale e quelli della loro finanza ed industria.

Mentre i primi cercano di fare di tutto per avversare la Cina ricoprendola di assurde menzogne, gli operatori economici investono sempre di più proprio in Cina, ed anche facendo molta attenzione a non urtarli.

Pubblicato in: Economia e Produzione Industriale, Finanza e Sistema Bancario

BlackRock rafforza il controllo della Exxon Mobil Corp.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-31.

2021-05-27__ Exxon Mobil 001

L’importante non è possedere.

L’importante è poter disporre.

«conta chi governa i consigli di amministrazione».


BlackRock. Q3. Assets a 7.81 trilioni Usd dai 7.32 del trimestre precedente.

I tre giganti. I nuovi discreti padroni dell’Occidente. Nomi quasi ignoti.

I soliti maligni sussurrano che sia BlackRock triturare i socialisti europei.

Cina. I capitali internazionali acquistano bond cinesi in yuan.

BlackRock anticipa l’apertura cinese alla finanza occidentale. 3.4 trilioni in tre anni.

BlackRock, Temasek Set Up China Asset-Management Joint Venture.

Warning! BlackRock guida la rivolta degli azionisti.

Exxon Mobil Corp e la Cina. Notizia non economica bensì politica.

* * *

Blackrock. Mr Fink, il vero padrone del mondo.

«Blackrock è la più grande società di investimenti a livello mondiale e gestisce direttamente oltre 7,320 miliardi di dollari. Ma questo è solo la punta di iceberg.

 «Attraverso BlackRock Solutions – risultato di continui investimenti in sistemi tecnologici integrati altamente sofisticati – BlackRock offre soluzioni di gestione del rischio e piattaforme d’investimento ad un’ampia rosa di clienti istituzionali, detentori di un patrimonio complessivo di oltre 7.320 miliardi di dollari.»

Più tutto il resto.

Fondata da Robert S. Kapito e da Laurence Fink nel 1988, ha basato il suo successo su alcune semplicissime considerazioni.

– Una società di investimenti può ammaliare un potenziale cliente, ma se non lo fa guadagnare perde sia il cliente sia il suo entourage. I clienti soddisfatti sono fedeli e portano immediatamente altri clienti. Il guadagno assicurato è la migliore forma pubblicitaria possibile.

– Gli investimenti devono essere copiosi, fruttiferi e stabili nel tempo. Quindi, pochissimo mordi e fuggi. Solo investimenti strategici. La platea deve essere semplicemente il mondo.

– Tipicamente, si rileva un pacchetto di compartecipazione in una società produttiva sana. Non un pacchetto di maggioranza, sarebbe troppo oneroso, ma di dimensioni tali da poter nominare membri nel cda e da poter influenzare la condotta della società stessa.

– Le società delle quali BlackRock detiene una partecipazione azionaria formano un network virtuale di aziende sane e redditizie, che si spalleggiano le une con le altre. Per esempio, una società produttrice utilizzerà delle banche ove sia presente Blackrock, si servirà da fornitori Blackrock, venderà ad utilizzatori Blackrock.

– Ma la idea portante è utilizzare il denaro degli altri, ossia degli investitori, per ottenere il condizionamento del cda di una società, obbligandolo alla generazione di reddito da ripartire tra gli azionisti ed alle norme comportamentali su riportate. La conditio sine qua non è una gestione impeccabile di quanto conferito. A nessuno mai interesserà come il denaro sia investito purché esso frutti utili copiosi.

– La onestà di comportamento nei confronti degli investitori che hanno conferito il loro denaro da gestire è il cuore del comportamento di BlackRock, e ne condiziona eticamente ogni azione. Infatti nessun investimento dura nel tempo se è utilizzato in modo improprio.

– Nella realtà dei fatti, BlackRock ha introdotto una filosofia di investimenti volta sicuramente al profitto, ma molto di più al controllo: in altri termini, al potere.  Non solo. Se è difficile entrare nel suo organico, è facilissimo uscirne: le progressioni di carriera sono fortemente meritocratiche, basate solo sui risultati ottenuti. Si viene così a formare una scuola dirigenziale di elevato valore, che potrebbe in ogni momento transitare alla politica surclassando i classici candidati mediatici. In altri termini: è un nuovo modo di fare politica.»

* * * * * * *


«BlackRock Inc, Exxon Mobil Corp’s  second largest shareholder, has voted for three of four candidates nominated by hedge fund Engine No. 1 to join the energy company’s board»

«BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has a 6.7% stake in Exxon, according to the company’s proxy»

«the top U.S. oil producer, has been calling shareholders including Vanguard and State Street to support for its slate of 12 directors»

«Engine No. 1 has a stake worth only about $50 million in Exxon, a company with a market capitalization of about $250 billion, but its traction with BlackRock underscores the importance investors are giving to environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) factors»

«The hedge fund has criticized Exxon, saying it is not moving fast enough to reduce its carbon footprint»

«The International Energy Agency (IEA) has said investors should stop funding new fossil fuel projects if they want to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 2050»

«The final vote could turn on Exxon’s three largest investors — Vanguard, State Street and BlackRock. Vanguard owns about 8.2% of the Exxon’s stock while State Street owns 5.7%»

«Engine No.1 proposed four directors — Gregory Goff, Kaisa Hietala, Alexander Karsner and Anders Runevad — with expertise in energy, technology and regulatory policy. BlackRock supported all but Runevad»

«The California-based hedge fund won the backing of three large pension funds and other investors dissatisfied with Exxon’s efforts to chart a clean energy strategy»

* * * * * * *

L’importante non è possedere. L’importante è poter gestire e controllare.

«conta chi governa i consigli di amministrazione».

*


BlackRock backs 3 director nominees challenging Exxon board – sources.

BlackRock Inc, Exxon Mobil Corp’s  second largest shareholder, has voted for three of four candidates nominated by hedge fund Engine No. 1 to join the energy company’s board, people familiar with the matter said on Tuesday.

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has a 6.7% stake in Exxon, according to the company’s proxy. Its vote signals investors have grown much more serious about fighting climate change, adding pressure to Exxon and other oil companies.

Exxon declined comment until after voting results are disclosed on Wednesday. Other sources have told Reuters that the top U.S. oil producer, has been calling shareholders including Vanguard and State Street to support for its slate of 12 directors.

Engine No. 1 has a stake worth only about $50 million in Exxon, a company with a market capitalization of about $250 billion, but its traction with BlackRock underscores the importance investors are giving to environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) factors. The hedge fund has criticized Exxon, saying it is not moving fast enough to reduce its carbon footprint.

Exxon holds its annual shareholder meeting on Wednesday and investors have the option of changing their votes until then.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has said investors should stop funding new fossil fuel projects if they want to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

BlackRock did not respond to a request for comment.

The sources requested anonymity because BlackRock does not publicly disclose how it casts its vote ahead of time.

The final vote could turn on Exxon’s three largest investors — Vanguard, State Street and BlackRock. Vanguard owns about 8.2% of the Exxon’s stock while State Street owns 5.7%. Vanguard will not disclose its decision before the meeting, a spokesman said on Tuesday.

BlackRock has been more willing than Vanguard and State Street to back dissident investors, analysts have said. Its decision could prove critical to securing one or more seats for Engine No.1’s nominees.

Engine No.1 proposed four directors — Gregory Goff, Kaisa Hietala, Alexander Karsner and Anders Runevad — with expertise in energy, technology and regulatory policy. BlackRock supported all but Runevad, the people said. Exxon has said the four do not have the expertise needed for its board.

The California-based hedge fund won the backing of three large pension funds and other investors dissatisfied with Exxon’s efforts to chart a clean energy strategy. Exxon’s past dismissal of governance and climate concerns also cost its support, investors have said.

Three proxy advisory firms that guide how investors vote backed the hedge fund’s slate. Institutional Shareholder Services recommended three of Engine No.1’s candidates while Glass Lewis backed two of the hedge fund’s candidates.

Exxon pledged on Monday to add two new board members with energy and climate expertise within 12 months. Exxon’s share price has climbed 45% since the start of the year. It stocks was off 2% at $58.30 at midday on Tuesday.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Stati Uniti

Usa. Fed. Bloomberg afferma che soffre di crisi paranoiche. Ipp +6.2% – Bloomberg.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-31.

2021-05-28__ Fed Paranoia 001

Beh: se lo dice Bloomberg ….

«The Fed is suffering from tantrum paranoia»

«The dangers of losing the market’s confidence on inflation are worse than those from cutting back the flow of quantitative easing»

«The U.S. Federal Reserve risks waiting too long before trimming back its stimulus out of fear of a repeat of the 2013 taper tantrum, but this time really is different as it needs to prove its inflation-fighting chops»

«The dangers of leaving it too late and losing the market’s confidence are worse than those from cutting back the flow of quantitative easing»

«A difference of opinion between the Fed’s view of what it sees as transitory price gains and the market’s assessment of the pricing of forward inflation expectations led to a sharp bond selloff in February»

«The Fed isn’t alone in this dilemma but it’s the only one suffering institutional paranoia because of the 2013 taper tantrum»

«The Bank of Canada has started tapering without any discernable impact on yields and the Bank of England will almost certainly end its QE program at the end of 2021»

«The Fed is still sticking by its central belief that most of the sharp inflation gains will fade next year»

«For the Fed to still be pumping in monthly stimulus of $120 billion creates big inflationary pressures, especially when set alongside U.S. growth this year that’s forecast to exceed 6%.»

«Consumer prices rose at an annual pace of 4.2% in April, with the more forward-looking producer price measure rising 6.2%»

«the Fed will start tapering at the end of this year and begin raising rates in early 2022»

«Bond yields are probably heading higher over time, which is logical with the global economy recapturing lost ground from last year»

* * * * * * *

Il 13 maggio lo U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics ha rilasciato il dato che l’Indice dei Prezzi di Produzione (IPP) è salito al 6.2%, anno su anno.

«On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index moved up 6.2 percent for the 12 months ended in April, the largest advance since 12-month data were first calculated in November 2010.»

Se i costi di produzione aumentano del 6.2%, sembrerebbe lecito aspettarsi una inflazione ben più alta di quella spearata dalla Fed.

«The Fed is suffering from tantrum paranoia»

*


The Fed Is Suffering From Tantrum Paranoia

The dangers of losing the market’s confidence on inflation are worse than those from cutting back the flow of quantitative easing.

The U.S. Federal Reserve risks waiting too long before trimming back its stimulus out of fear of a repeat of the 2013 taper tantrum, but this time really is different as it needs to prove its inflation-fighting chops. The dangers of leaving it too late and losing the market’s confidence are worse than those from cutting back the flow of quantitative easing. With a balance sheet of more than $7 trillion the risks of overdoing the tapering are relatively small. 

A difference of opinion between the Fed’s view of what it sees as transitory price gains and the market’s assessment of the pricing of forward inflation expectations led to a sharp bond selloff in February. The Fed risks a repeat if it doesn’t appear credible on inflation. If its more benign view is proved right — and inflation returns to close to the 2% Fed target next year — it can always modify its course.

The Fed isn’t alone in this dilemma but it’s the only one suffering institutional paranoia because of the 2013 taper tantrum. It needs to get over this: The levels of stimulus and the upswing in inflation were much lower then. The Bank of Canada has started tapering without any discernable impact on yields and the Bank of England will almost certainly end its QE program at the end of 2021. The grumblings from hawks on the European Central Bank’s governing council are getting louder but it’s in no shape to front run the Fed. Inflation is a collective global problem but where the U.S. goes the rest largely follow.

That’s why it’s important to recognize any subtle shifts in the Fed’s view of whether the economic rebound will lead to an embedded shift in the inflationary environment. Vice Chair Richard Clarida noted last week that, “If we were to see upward pressure on prices or inflation that threatened to put inflation expectations higher, I’ve no doubt that we’d use our tools to address that situation.” 

Even Lael Brainard, a dovish member of the Federal Open Mark Committee, qualified her belief that long-term inflation expectations are well-anchored with the proviso that “we have the tools and the experience to gently guide inflation back to target” and that “no one should doubt our commitment to do so.”

The Fed is still sticking by its central belief that most of the sharp inflation gains will fade next year. As a result, market fears of runaway inflation are subsiding even though central bank stimulus shows little sign of wavering.

But the prospect of inflation hasn’t suddenly vanished. For the Fed to still be pumping in monthly stimulus of $120 billion creates big inflationary pressures, especially when set alongside U.S. growth this year that’s forecast to exceed 6%. Consumer prices rose at an annual pace of 4.2% in April, with the more forward-looking producer price measure rising 6.2%. The release of the May CPI data on June 10 will be a major test of market confidence in the Fed’s reassurances.

James Gorman, Morgan Stanley’s boss, believes the Fed will start tapering at the end of this year and begin raising rates in early 2022. That might be too fast for the FOMC’s current thinking but if inflation remains significantly above the 2% official target it may be hard to resist, especially if Joe Biden’s administration continues with its multi-trillion dollar fiscal splurge.

Bond yields are probably heading higher over time, which is logical with the global economy recapturing lost ground from last year. The question is whether this will be an orderly process, with the Fed more in lockstep with the evident inflationary risks. Financial markets need to believe central bank modelling isn’t divorced from the reality of supply bottlenecks, commodity price surges and a boom in retail sales. Time for central banks to start planning the orderly wind down of record stimulus. It’ll be safer in the long run.