«The economic crisis that has befallen emerging and developing economies is being treated as temporary, with a moratorium on interest payments and a promise of commercial credits remaining valid only through the end of the year»
«In other words, the policy response is woefully inadequate to these countries’ situation»
«The developing world is on the cusp of its worst debt crisis since 1982. Back then, three years had to pass before creditors mounted the concerted response known as the Baker Plan, named after then-US Treasury Secretary James Baker.»
«Predictably, perhaps, the G20’s declaration resembles the Baker Plan. There’s just one problem: the Baker Plan didn’t work.»
«More than $100 billion of financial capital has flowed out of these markets – three times as much as in the first two months of the 2008 global financial crisis»
«Developing countries’ oil and gas revenues may plunge by 85%. Global trade is on course to fall by up to 32%, three times as much as in 2009»
«Unfortunately, this observation ignores the inconvenient truth that these countries’ private companies borrow in dollars»
It also ignores that emerging markets, aside from the “Favored 4” (Mexico, Brazil, Singapore, and South Korea), lack swap lines with the US Federal Reserve.
«The G20 has offered to suspend interest payments on intergovernmental loans for the poorest countries.»
«The Baker Plan likewise proceeded on the premise that the shock was transient and that a temporary debt standstill would be enough.»
«This of course was not the case»
«Today’s crisis is also being treated as temporary, with a moratorium on interest payments and a promise of commercial credits remaining valid only through the end of the year»
«The reality is different. Weak global growth and depressed primary commodity prices will persist.»
«And unless the debt overhang is addressed, capital flows will not resume»
«Now – and not seven years from now – is the time for a new Brady Plan, in which debts rendered unsustainable through no fault of the borrowers are written down and converted into new instruments»
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Il crollo dell’ideologia liberal socialista lascia come reliquati i frutti delle loro ideologie destruenti.
La cultura che il debito pubblico possa crescere indefinitamente sorretto da una crescita altrettanto infinita si fonda su presupposti fallaci, che i fatti stanno clamorosamente smentendo. In vista non c’è il sole dell’avvenire, bensì il tramonto traumatico di un sistema.
I debiti pubblici gravano sul collo di quasi tutti i popoli occidentali e dei paesi emergenti più poveri. Ma se l’Europa riesce a reggerli ancora, sia pure per poco, gli emergenti ne restano strozzati, ora, adesso.
Si faccia molta attenzione.
Il problema descritto non è solamente economico e finanziario, bensì assume un risolto umanitario di grande portata.
The economic crisis that has befallen emerging and developing economies is being treated as temporary, with a moratorium on interest payments and a promise of commercial credits remaining valid only through the end of the year. In other words, the policy response is woefully inadequate to these countries’ situation.
BERKELEY – The developing world is on the cusp of its worst debt crisis since 1982. Back then, three years had to pass before creditors mounted the concerted response known as the Baker Plan, named after then-US Treasury Secretary James Baker. This time, fortunately, G20 governments have responded more quickly, calling for a moratorium on payments by low-income countries.
Predictably, perhaps, the G20’s declaration resembles the Baker Plan. There’s just one problem: the Baker Plan didn’t work. The crisis currently engulfing the emerging and developing world is unprecedented. More than $100 billion of financial capital has flowed out of these markets – three times as much as in the first two months of the 2008 global financial crisis. Remittances are poised to fall by an additional $100 billion this year. Developing countries’ oil and gas revenues may plunge by 85%. Global trade is on course to fall by up to 32%, three times as much as in 2009. All this is unfolding against the backdrop of a plague of locusts in Africa.The financial context is an international monetary system that is still disproportionately dollar-based. For five years, we have been reassured that emerging economies have fully atoned for their “original sin.” In other words, their governments now can borrow in their own currencies, allowing them greater leeway to use monetary and fiscal policies. Unfortunately, this observation ignores the inconvenient truth that these countries’ private companies borrow in dollars. It ignores that the dollar debts of emerging markets (excluding China) have doubled since 2008.
It also ignores that emerging markets, aside from the “Favored 4” (Mexico, Brazil, Singapore, and South Korea), lack swap lines with the US Federal Reserve. True, the Fed recently added a “repo facility” through which central banks can borrow dollars against their holdings of US Treasury securities. But that is cold comfort to countries that have already run down their reserves. All of this means that, when it comes to the stabilizing use of monetary and fiscal policies, emerging markets are hamstrung. Which is why we are back to Baker Plan 2.0. The G20 has offered to suspend interest payments on intergovernmental loans for the poorest countries. Private creditors, for their part, agreed to roll over an additional $8 billion worth of commercial debt. That, at least, is something. But, to borrow the baseball apostle Yogi Berra’s line, it is also “déjà vu all over again.” The Baker Plan likewise proceeded on the premise that the shock was transient and that a temporary debt standstill would be enough. Creditors would roll over their loans. Growth would resume. Interest arrears then would be paid off once the crisis passed. This of course was not the case. There was no “Phoenix miracle” in low- and middle-income countries; instead, there was a lost decade. Not only were emerging markets unable to repay; because their debts had not been restructured, they also were unable to borrow. The creditors’ commitment to put in new money was particularly problematic. In practice, each bank preferred that other banks contribute new finance – a free-rider problem if ever there was one. By 1989, seven unproductive years after the onset of the crisis, the Baker Plan finally was superseded by the Brady Plan, named after a subsequent US Treasury secretary, Nicholas Brady. Debts were written down. Bank loans were converted into bonds – often a menu of securities from which investors selected their preferred terms and maturities. Advanced-economy governments facilitated the transaction by providing “sweeteners” – subsidies that collateralized the new securities and enhanced their liquidity.
Today’s crisis is also being treated as temporary, with a moratorium on interest payments and a promise of commercial credits remaining valid only through the end of the year. The reality is different. Weak global growth and depressed primary commodity prices will persist. Supply chains will be reorganized and shortened, auguring further disruptions of trade. Receipts from tourism and remittances will not pick up anytime soon. And unless the debt overhang is addressed, capital flows will not resume.
Now – and not seven years from now – is the time for a new Brady Plan, in which debts rendered unsustainable through no fault of the borrowers are written down and converted into new instruments. This can be done without destabilizing the banks, because emerging-market bonds are held mainly outside the banking system. A large-scale conversion would also be an occasion for many countries to issue innovative instruments with stabilizing properties, such as GDP-indexed and commodity-price-indexed bonds, without requiring them to pay a novelty premium. This debt crisis is also a humanitarian crisis and a global public-policy crisis. The appropriate entity to organize the response is therefore the International Monetary Fund, not the Institute of International Finance, the house organ of the creditors (as recommended by the G20). As a United Nations organization, the IMF could request that Chapter VII of the UN Charter be invoked to shield debtors from disruptive legal action by opportunistic investors. A crisis of this magnitude warrants no less.
Chiusura in netto ribasso alla Borsa di Milano, con un peggioramento sul finale che ha visto l’indice Ftse-Mib lasciare sul terreno un 2,14%. Come fin dall’avvio di questa settimana, sui mercati europei e Usa pesano i timori sulle prospettive di ripresa delle economie dopo le paralisi dovute ai lockdown per cercare di limitare i contagi di Covid-19. Timori sulla solidità di questi recuperi giungono da più parti, assieme a messe in guardia sul rischio di una seconda ondata di contagi.
Oggi, poi, si sono riaffacciate debolezze sul settore petrolifero, con cali dei prezzi a dispetto di un inatteso assottigliamento delle scorte Usa.
«Di certo non sono di buon auspicio le parole di Anthony Fauci, il virologo della Casa Bianca che ieri, nella sua audizione al Senato Usa, ha avvertito che, anche nel caso in cui si dovesse trovare un vaccino contro il coronavirus, “non ci sarebbe alcuna garanzia sulla sua reale efficacia”.»
«Sembra che il mercato stia ignorando il calo degli utili e il deterioramento delle condizioni economiche. Noi intravediamo rischi significativi, che permangono in un momento in cui le economie cercano di riaprire, e rimaniamo underweight sull’azionario nel suo complesso»
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Finalmente si iniziano a sentire parole ragionevoli, che smorzano i facili entusiasmi illusori.
Azionario asiatico misto, sulla scia di nuovi casi di contagiati dal coronavirus che si sono manifestati in alcuni paesi, come Cina e Corea del Sud, a seguito dell’allentamento delle misure di contenimento.
L’indice Nikkei 225 ha chiuso la sessione in calo dello 0,49% a 20.267,05 punti; Shanghai piatta con una variazione +0,08%, Hong Kong -0,09%, Sidney -0,01%, Seoul +0,37%.
Di certo non sono di buon auspicio le parole di Anthony Fauci, il virologo della Casa Bianca che ieri, nella sua audizione al Senato Usa, ha avvertito che, anche nel caso in cui si dovesse trovare un vaccino contro il coronavirus, “non ci sarebbe alcuna garanzia sulla sua reale efficacia”. Stando agli ultimi dati compilati dalla Johns Hopkins University, sono più di 4,2 milioni le persone infettate nel mondo dal virus, a fronte di un numero di vittime di almeno 287.158.
Così César Pérez Ruiz, responsabile della divisione di investimenti e CIO presso Pictet Wealth Management, ha scritto in una nota riportata dalla Cnbc:
“Sembra che il mercato stia ignorando il calo degli utili e il deterioramento delle condizioni economiche. Noi intravediamo rischi significativi, che permangono in un momento in cui le economie cercano di riaprire, e rimaniamo underweight sull’azionario nel suo complesso. Detto questo, siamo “positivi sull’Asia e, in particolare, sulla Cina tra i mercati emergenti”
Sentix è un’indagine settimanale sul mercato dei capitali basata su internet con l’obiettivo di determinare il sentimento, le aspettative e le azioni degli investitori di capitale. La prima indagine è stata condotta nel febbraio 2001.
Oltre 400 diversi indici sono determinati dai dati, ampiamente utilizzati come indicatori di sentiment nelle analisi di borsa, per lo più in combinazione con i grafici e le analisi di mercato, da investitori istituzionali e privati. La rilevanza del sentimento del mercato per le tendenze dei mercati finanziari deriva dalla Finanza Comportamentale.
Attualmente, circa 5000 investitori provenienti da più di 20 paesi sono registrati nel sondaggio.
Per quanto il calcolo matematico varia da -1 a +1, usualmente è riportato in una scala da -100 a +100.
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L’indice Sentix Investor Confidence misura il livello di fiducia degli investitori nell’attività economica. Si tratta di un indicatore chiave, dal momento che misura lo stato d’animo degli investitori nei confronti dell’economia in zona euro. Dati elevati alti segnalano un maggiore ottimismo da parte dei consumatori.
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L’ultimo valore significativamente positivo per l’eurozona fu registrato nel maggio 2019, 22.5: un moderato ottimismo.
Nelle ultime due rilevazioni, l’Indice Sentix nel livello di fiducia degli investitori nell’attività economica è risultato essere fortemente negativo: -42.9 e -41.8, rispettivamente. Ma senza investimenti da parte degli investitori la ripresa diventa una chimera.
Ci si pensi bene: una cosa è disporre dei capitali ed una totalmente differente è il fidarsi ad investire.
È un indice prognostico molto severo sulla situazione economica dell’eurozona.
Borse europee di nuovo in pesante caduta in avvio di settimana e con aggravamenti dei ribassi in chiusura degli scambi. Francoforte ha siglato le contrattazioni al meno 3,63%, Parigi con un crollo del 4,24%, Milano con un meno 3,70%. Dinamica diversa a Londra dove il Ftse 100 ha limitato le perdite al meno 0,16%. Permane un quadro di elevata incertezza sulle prospettive di ripartenza delle economie dopo le catastrofi economiche causate dai lockdown decisi per cercare di limitare la pandemia di coronavirus.
A questo si aggiunge la ripresa delle tensioni retoriche tra amministrazione Trump e Cina, sulle dispute commerciali e sulle responsabilità in merito alla pandemia. Nel frattempo la conferenza annuale del finanziare Warren Buffet, per quanto con indicazioni rassicuranti sulle capacità di recupero degli Usa non ha fornito segnali di chiarezza sulle prospettive di breve termine, salvo che in negativo sul comparto aereo, dato che il finanziere ha rivelato di averne eliminato i titoli dal suo portafoglio.
Sull’area euro e l’Italia, poi, oltre alle indagini che hanno confermato il crollo storico di attività ad aprile nel manifatturiero, incombe la nuova decisione domani della Corte costituzionale della Germania sui programmi di acquisti di titoli della Bce. Lo spread Btp-Bund ha chiuso comunque in limatura a 234 mentre proprio l’istituzione monetaria ha riferito di aver acquistato 103 miliardi di euro di titoli con il suo nuovo programma anti pandemia ad aprile (Pepp), con il totale dal lancio salito a 119 miliardi di euro.
In ripiegamento l’euro, che comunque a 1,0906 dollari non si riporta ai livelli precedenti al direttorio Bce di giovedì 30 maggio (che limitandosi a rafforzare le misure sul credito bancario aveva deluso alcune attese dei mercati).
Le Borse europee inneggiano a modo loro la provvidenziale presenza dell’Unione Europea e dell’Eurogruppo, così solleciti all’ascolto ed ad esaudire le loro necessità.
Mandano anche un saluto sincero ai propri Governi.
«Germany will protect domestic firms from foreign takeovers, two leading politicians said on Friday, after company valuations in Europe’s largest economy have been hammered by the coronavirus pandemic»
«Germany’s blue-chip DAX index, which comprises the country’s 30 largest listed corporations, has plunged more than a third over the past month as the coronavirus outbreak has brought several economies to a near standstill»
«This has increased the risk of foreign companies snapping up rivals at a discount»
«We will avoid a sell-out of German economic and industrial concerns. There cannot be any taboos. Temporary and limited state support as well as participations and takeovers need to be possible»
«Automotive companies have been among the worst hit, with Daimler, Continental and Volkswagen shares down 44-48% over the past four weeks»
«If most of Bavaria’s and Germany’s economy ends up in foreign hands once this crisis is over … then it’s not only a health crisis but a profound alteration of the global economic order»
«Airline Lufthansa, which has been particularly badly hit, said on Thursday it would seek state help if the crisis persisted, adding this was not yet the case»
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Il cuore del verosimile prossimo provvedimento è racchiuso un una frasetta di poche parole.
«There cannot be any taboos»
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Ora che le imprese tedesche si trovano concretamente esposte sia a causa del blocco produttivo sia del crollo del mercato borsistico, la Germania decide di ignorare quelli che furono dogmi fideistici dell’Unione Europea e di passare decisamente, senza aver avvisato nessuno, ad un sistema sovranista protezionista.
È un’inversione di rotta di centottanta gradi.
Questa mutazione significa la morte dell’Unione Europea così come la si è conosciuta per decenni.
Germany will protect domestic firms from foreign takeovers, two leading politicians said on Friday, after company valuations in Europe’s largest economy have been hammered by the coronavirus pandemic.
Ministers have already promised liquidity support to businesses and introduced measures making it easier to reduce working hours rather than lay off workers.
The cabinet is due to decide on further support measures on Monday, when a government source said it would back a supplementary budget worth around 150 billion euros ($161.18 billion).
Germany’s blue-chip DAX index .GDAXI, which comprises the country’s 30 largest listed corporations, has plunged more than a third over the past month as the coronavirus outbreak has brought several economies to a near standstill.
This has increased the risk of foreign companies snapping up rivals at a discount.
“We will avoid a sell-out of German economic and industrial concerns. There cannot be any taboos. Temporary and limited state support as well as participations and takeovers need to be possible,” Economy Minister Peter Altmaier said.
Automotive companies have been among the worst hit, with Daimler (DAIGn.DE), Continental (CONG.DE) and Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE) shares down 44-48% over the past four weeks.
Markus Soeder, state premier of Bavaria, where heavyweights such as Siemens (SIEGn.DE) and BMW (BMWG.DE) are based, said all legal options should be explored to block potential bids for German companies.
“If most of Bavaria’s and Germany’s economy ends up in foreign hands once this crisis is over … then it’s not only a health crisis but a profound alteration of the global economic order,” he said.
“We need to brace ourselves for that.”
EMERGENCY FUND
German magazine Der Spiegel reported on Friday that Berlin was considering a half-trillion-euro fund to support companies thrown into payments difficulties by the coronavirus crisis, which would be able to guarantee liabilities or even inject capital when needed.
The plan is one of several being considered by officials as the government puts together a rescue package intended to keep the short-term havoc wrought by shutting down the economy from becoming a rout, an official told Reuters.
One option is a 40-50 billion-euro ($43-$54 billion) “solidarity” fund for the self-employed and businesses with fewer than 10 employees, which could help them buy materials, pay rents and meet leasing payments. The details for this program are due to be thrashed out over the weekend.
The roughly 500 billion-euro fund first reported by Der Spiegel is modeled on the 480 billion-euro Special Fund for Market Stabilisation that the government set up to support banks at the time of the financial crisis.
The government is prepared to revive that fund if banks get into difficulties, Der Spiegel said.
The finance ministry is currently considering direct support programs to a value of around 180 billion euros, the magazine said, adding that sum might be increased to 700 billion euros.
Airline Lufthansa (LHAG.DE), which has been particularly badly hit, said on Thursday it would seek state help if the crisis persisted, adding this was not yet the case.
German investor Heinz Hermann Thiele has increased his stake in Lufthansa to 10%, a regulatory filing showed on Friday.
TOKYO, 26 MAR [h 01:38] – La Borsa di Tokyo inverte la marcia dopo il maggior rialzo giornaliero in 26 anni fatto segnare ieri, con gli investitori che fanno scattare le prese di profitto in attesa oggi dei dati dal mercato del lavoro Usa per analizzare l’impatto della diffusione del coronavirus sulla prima economia mondiale. Il Nikkei arretra del 3,13% a quota 18.935,36, con una perdita di 611 punti. Sul mercato dei cambi lo yen è stabile sul dollaro a 110,80 e sull’euro a 120,60.
