Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Senza categoria

Con quanto successo in Consiglio Europeo è successo financo poco.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-10-18.

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In Consiglio Europeo i liberal socialisti hanno perso la maggioranza. Se la sono presa a male.

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Gestori: pessimismo in netto aumento. Sell su azioni Italia e UK

Le indicazioni arrivate dall’ultimo sondaggio realizzato da Bank of America Merrill Lynch sono poco incoraggianti, visto il pessimismo che serpeggia tra i gestori sul futuro dell’economia globale.

I gestori si attendono una frenata dell’economia mondiale

Dall’indagine condotta tra il 5 e l’11 ottobre con il coinvolgimento di 231 fund managers che hanno asset in gestione per quasi 650 miliardi di euro, è emerso che il 40% degli stessi si attende una frenata della crescita mondiale.

Già a settembre era emerso un dato allarmante, con un pessimismo ai massimi dal 2011, ma l’indicazione di questo mese è ancora più preoccupante visto che una view negativa sulla crescita con una percentuale così alta non si registrava da novembre 2008.

Circa l’85% degli interpellati crede che l’economia si trovi nella fase finale del suo ciclo e si tratta di un dato superiore dell’11% rispetto ai massimi visti a dicembre 2007. 

I fattori di rischio secondo i fund managers

In linea con quanto già emerso in occasioni dei sondaggi precedenti, tre sono i principali fattori di rischio indicati dai gestori. Il primo è quello della guerra commerciale, seguito dalla normalizzazione delle politiche monetarie da parte delle Banche Centrali, fino ad arrivare alla frenata dell’economia in Cina che preoccupa il 16% dei fund managers.

I timori sulle prospettive dell’economia globale si associano peraltro ad una view decisamente più prudente sui profitti societari, per i quali il 20% dei partecipanti al panel prevede un deterioramento nei prossimi 12 mesi.

Focus su rialzo rendimenti titoli di Stato Usa

E’ motivo di preoccupazione anche il recente rialzo del rendimenti dei titoli di Stato Usa, con quello del decennale sui massimi degli ultimi sette mesi. Dall’indagine è emerso però che i livelli attuali sono ancora troppo bassi per determinare un passaggio degli investitori dall’azionario all’obbligazionari. I gestori prevedono che uno switch del genere si avrà nel momento il cui il rendimento del Treasury a 10 anni salirà al 3,7%.

Dai valori attuali c’è ancora un certo margine e questo fa sì che gli investitori siano ancora riluttanti a rinunciare ad un’esposizione agli asset rischiosi, mantenendo una posizione di sottopeso globale sulle obbligazionari.

Annunci
Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Finanza e Sistema Bancario

Nikkei -4.12%, Shanghai -4.85%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-10-11. h 07:36.

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Sembrerebbe essere un segno prognostico negativo per le borse occidentali.

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Dopo Wall Street crollano anche le borse asiatiche. Donald Trump contro la FED: “È impazzita”

“Ci sono diverse ragioni che si sommano”, ha spiegato Juichi Wako della Nomura Securities di Tokyo all’agenzia Blommberg, ripreso dall’agenzia Afp: “La caduta di Wall street, l’aumento dei tassi di interesse a lungo termine, nuove inquietudini sulle relazioni commerciali tra Cina e Stati Uniti e un atteggiamento prudente a monte degli annunci dei risultati d’impresa”

L’onda lunga parte da Wall Street ma nella notte italiana si abbatte sulla sponda asiatica del Pacifico, con tutte le principali piazze in forte difficoltà Ieri il Dow Jones aveva chiuso perdendo il 3,10%, con il il Nasdaq che cede il 4,08% e lo S&P 500 che lascia sul terreno il 3,27%. A pesare è l’ondata di vendite sui tecnologici, che affonda i listini americani già preoccupati per il balzo dei rendimenti sui Treasury e l’impatto dei dazi sulle trimestrali. Trump coglie l’occasione per ribadire che la Fed “è impazzita” sui tassi ma che il calo è una “correzione che aspettavamo da tempo”. “In fumo” 99 miliardi di dollari.

Giovedì nero in Asia

Borse asiatiche in ribasso. L’indice Nikkei della borso di Tokyo ha perso 3,89% a metà seduta, l’indice composito Hang Seng della borsa di Hong Kong ha perso 3,19%, l’indice composito della borsa di Shanghai ha aperto con una perdita di 23,04% mentre in Corea del Sud il Kospi (Korea Composite Stock Price Index) è andato giù di 2,86%.

Tante concause

“Ci sono diverse ragioni che si sommano”, ha spiegato Juichi Wako della Nomura Securities di Tokyo all’agenzia Blommberg, ripreso dall’agenzia Afp: “La caduta di Wall street, l’aumento dei tassi di interesse a lungo termine, nuove inquietudini sulle relazioni commerciali tra Cina e Stati Uniti e un atteggiamento prudente a monte degli annunci dei risultati d’impresa”.

Trump:”La Fed è impazzita”

 Il presidente Donald Trump torna all’attacco della Federal Reserve dopo il tonfo di Wall Street, La Fed, che ha alzato i tassi d’interesse tre volte dall’inizio dell’anno, “e’ impazzita”, ha tuonato il presidente, definendo il crollo della Borsa Usa “una correzione attesa da tempo”. Gli analisti segnalano come l’utilizzo della parola “correzione” da parte di Trump possa preludere ad ulteriori pesanti cali sui principali listini Usa perche’ tecnicamente indica perdite di almeno il 10% rispetto ai massimi delle ultime 52 settimane.

Wall Street, in fumo 99 miliardi di dollari

Mercoledi’ sia lo S&P 500 e sia il Dow Jones hanno registrato il calo giornaliero piu’ pesante dallo scorso 8 febbraio. In caduta libera anche i titoli tecnologici. Netflix ha perso l’8,38%, Amazon il 6,15% e Apple il 4,6%, pari a 120 miliardi di dollari andati in fumo in valore di mercato, considerando queste tre societa’. E se gli analisti appaiono divisi sul tasso di sviluppo dell’economia americana che potrebbe aver raggiunto il picco, sono concordi nel giudicare preoccupanti le tensioni commerciali tra Washington e Pechino e la frenata dell’economia cinese che avrebbe ricadute di portata globale. Ma Trump ha puntato il dito contro la Fed, guidata da Jerome Powell che lui stesso ha nominato, rea di alzare i tassi troppo velocemente in un contesto di bassa inflazione e dati economici positivi. La scorsa settimana il governatore Powell ha tenuto a precisare come le decisioni della banca centrale Usa siano guidate esclusivamente dai dati macro. “E’ quello che facciamo e continueremo a fare”, ha assicurato Powell escludendo influenze da parte della politica.

Miliardari impoveriti Il crollo di Wall Street impoverisce i 500 paperoni mondiali, che vedono andare in fumo 99 miliardi di dollari. il piu’ ‘colpito’ – secondo l’indice dei miliardari di Bloomberg – è Jeff Bezos che brucia in una seduta 9,1 miliardi di dollari, e vede scendere la sua fortuna a 145,2 miliardi di dollari.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Unione Europea

L’Italia vale molto meno di quanto crediate, e gli operatori lo sanno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-09-21.

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Stimare quanto valga un sistema economico nazionale ricorrendo ad uno o più indicatori è cosa ardua, perché ciascuno di essi rappresenta i fenomeni considerati della loro definizione. In altri termini, sono verità parziali.

Ci aiuteremo ricorrendo a qualche esempio, da prendersi con sano buon senso.

Popolazione.

Secondo Eurostat l’Unione Europea assomma 513,162,753 persone. L’Italia avrebbe 60,665,551 abitanti, ossia l’11.82% dell’Unione.

Pil.

World Bank indica il pil 2017 dell’Unione Europea a 17,227,698 Usd, 1,934,798 Usd per l’Italia, ossia l’11.23% dell’Unione.

Pil ppa.

L’International Monetary Fund stima per il 2017 il pil ppa dell’Unione Europea a 20,982,857 Usd, essendo 2,310,902 Usd quello della Italia, ossia l’11.01% del pil ppa dell’Unione Europea.

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Come si constata, questi tre indici forniscono risultati percentuali ragionevolmente simili. Il pil ppa percentuale dell’11.01% è però significativamente minore dell’11.82% stimato sulla popolazione, segno non certamente buono.

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Se però invece si questi ectoplasmi finanziari si passasse alle vili contabilità, la musica suonerebbe del tutto differente.

La Banca di Italia pubblica regolarmente il Report: “TARGET2: il sistema dei pagamenti all’ingrosso“.

«Target2 si basa su una piattaforma unica condivisa (Single Shared Platform, SSP) – sviluppata dalle banche centrali di Francia, Germania e Italia – che regola gli ordini di pagamento provenienti dagli intermediari bancari e finanziari europei»: l’Italia dovrebbe svolgere ruolo dominante. Eccone il summary a fine 2017.»

– I partecipanti totali sono 1,073, dei quali 89 sono italiani: ossia l’8.29%.

– 350,000 pagamenti regolati in media ogni giorno, per una media giornaliera complessiva di 1,697 miliardi di euro: l’Italia rende conto di 34,000 pagamenti regolati in media ogni giorno, per una media giornaliera di 68 miliardi di euro.

Per numero di pagamenti 100 * 34,000 / 350,000 = 9.71%.

Per controvalore 100 * 68 / 1,697 = 4.01%.

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Se la percentuale del numero delle transazioni effettuate, 9.71%, è già molto sotto il valore atteso, quella del controvalore, 4.01%, è a livello di catastrofe incombente.

La conclusione è drammaticamente semplice.

L’Italia è un paese stagnante, ove la gente non opera. Denari ce ne sarebbero, ma nessuno arde dal desiderio di impiegarli, anzi, se li tengono belli stretti.

L’analisi di questi dati sarebbe lunga, complessa e molto tecnica. Ne riportiamo solo le principali conclusioni.

Se la percentuale del controvalore trattato scendesse sotto il 3%, e ci si è molto vicini, il sistema Italia collasserebbe: che andasse bene si ritornerebbe all’uso delle conchiglie cauri.

Obiettivo primario del Governo dovrebbe essere quello di rimettere in moto la produzione, unico comparto che genera transazioni e, quindi, ricchezza. Delegificazione, deburocratizzazione, abbassamento consistente della pressione fiscale, riduzione delle aliquote Iva, liberalizzazione del mercato del lavoro: queste dovrebbero essere le priorità del Governo.

Quando la rendita finanziaria è maggiore di quella economica, ossia, in linguaggio da osteria, si guadagna di più ad investire in borsa rispetto al comparto produttivo, la scelta è virtualmente obbligata: nessuno più imprende né lavora.

Pubblicato in: Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Unione Europea

Germania. Grandiosa evasione fiscale di almeno 10 miliardi. – Bloomberg

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-08-05.

Berlino Porta Brandemburgo

«Prosecutors say dozens of banks and brokerage houses helped investors create massive returns for nearly a decade»

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«The maneuver was brilliant, a virtually risk-free transaction that guaranteed hefty returns after only a few days. Then the taxman caught on»

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«For the better part of a decade, German authorities say, dozens of banks and brokerages helped investors snatch billions of euros from the national treasury by exploiting an interpretation of the tax code that appeared to let multiple people claim ownership of the same shares of stock and—crucially—the right to a refund of taxes withheld from dividends»

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«They seemed to be creating money from nothing, …. Common sense should have told anyone that this couldn’t be right»

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«The deals involved a type of short sale made just before a company was due to pay a dividend. (In conventional short sales, investors sell stock they don’t own, hoping to profit by repurchasing it later at a lower price.)»

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«When German companies pay dividends, they withhold about a quarter of the money to cover any taxes the shareholder might later owe»

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«Shareholders get certificates showing how much was deducted, and the amount can be credited against their tax bill or, if they owe no additional taxes, refunded. In the case of the short sales in question, two parties claimed to own the same stock and got certificates»

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«Prosecutors say that in some instances, three or more investors may have received certificates for the same withholding tax»

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«The practice—which has come to be known as “cum/ex,” a Latin phrase that means “with/without,” a reference to the vanishing dividend payments in the trades—is widely reported to have cost German taxpayers more than €10 billion ($11.7 billion).»

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Il dettaglio tecnico è roba da giuristi e sarà definito, si spera in modo definitivo, quando la corte di giustizia emetterà sentenza.

Ma il problema generale dovrebbe essere evidente ed è di comune interesse a tutti gli stati occidentali.

I governi, specialmente quelli liberal o di sinistra, hanno una grande prolificità legislativa.

Nella sola Germania leggi, norme, circolari esplicative in campo economico e finanziario occupano circa settemila pagine a stampa. A queste si dovrebbero aggiungere le quasi altrettante emanate dai singoli Länder. Poi sarebbe doveroso considerare il mare magnum delle normative in materia dell’Unione Europea.

Ad essere franchi, è semplicemente impossibile che mente umana possa aver presente simultaneamente una simile massa di dispositivi.

Mentre però le grandi società finanziarie possono permettersi costosissimi ma efficienti consulenti, gli agenti del fisco, dipendenti pubblici, sono drammaticamente ignoranti in materia e lo scarno compenso non li stimola certo a studiare.

Una caratteristica che ha concorso a portare alla rovina i liberal ed i socialisti è il gusto lezioso del particolare, della eccezione, dell’evento raro considerato come se fosse la norma. Le loro leggi e norme sono un tripudio di commi, di casi particolari, etc.

Occorre snellire le leggi, non aumentarne la complessità e, di conserva, aumentare il numero di burocrati.

Contengono infatti queste leggi in sé stesse troppe conflittuali ambiguità irrisolte.

Nel caso specifico, una cedolare secca ritenuta alla fonte avrebbe brillantemente risolto il problema.

Il costo dell’apparato burocratico che sovraintende la riscossione può anche superare quanto poi effettivamente introitato, specie poi se si considerasse l’onere del contenzioso giuridico.


Bloomberg. 2018-07-10. The Tax Dodge That Cost the German Treasury Billions

Prosecutors say dozens of banks and brokerage houses helped investors create massive returns for nearly a decade.

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The maneuver was brilliant, a virtually risk-free transaction that guaranteed hefty returns after only a few days. Then the taxman caught on.

For the better part of a decade, German authorities say, dozens of banks and brokerages helped investors snatch billions of euros from the national treasury by exploiting an interpretation of the tax code that appeared to let multiple people claim ownership of the same shares of stock and—crucially—the right to a refund of taxes withheld from dividends. “They seemed to be creating money from nothing,” says Tobias Rudolph, a criminal defense lawyer in Nuremberg. “Common sense should have told anyone that this couldn’t be right.”

The deals involved a type of short sale made just before a company was due to pay a dividend. (In conventional short sales, investors sell stock they don’t own, hoping to profit by repurchasing it later at a lower price.) When German companies pay dividends, they withhold about a quarter of the money to cover any taxes the shareholder might later owe. Shareholders get certificates showing how much was deducted, and the amount can be credited against their tax bill or, if they owe no additional taxes, refunded. In the case of the short sales in question, two parties claimed to own the same stock and got certificates. Prosecutors say that in some instances, three or more investors may have received certificates for the same withholding tax.

Financial houses, accounting companies, and law firms across Europe and the U.S. participated on some level: doing the deals, arranging them for clients by acting as custodians, issuing tax certificates, or financing transactions. The practice—which has come to be known as “cum/ex,” a Latin phrase that means “with/without,” a reference to the vanishing dividend payments in the trades—is widely reported to have cost German taxpayers more than €10 billion ($11.7 billion).

Frankfurt prosecutors in May said they had charged six people, including former investment bankers at UniCredit SpA’s HVB unit in London. Investigators in Cologne are preparing their first indictments in a parallel probe, according to people familiar with the matter. That inquiry has been under way for about a half-decade but is picking up speed as suspects begin to cooperate. The cases involve hundreds of individuals at banks including Barclays, Macquarie, Bank of America, and BNP Paribas, say the people, who declined to be identified because they’re not authorized to discuss the matter. A third team, in Munich, is looking into an investment fund that specialized in such transactions. “A shockingly large number of players sought to unscrupulously enrich themselves at the public’s expense,” German opposition lawmaker Gerhard Schick said in a report to parliament. “It was a glittering party.”

Commerzbank, Deutsche Bank, HVB, German private lender M.M. Warburg, and Clearstream, the unit of Deutsche Börse that settles trades, have acknowledged that transactions they were involved in are being investigated. Deutsche Bank AG says it didn’t participate in cum/ex trades as a short seller or buyer, but it worked on deals for some clients. M.M. Warburg & Co. says any trades it made were in line with the law. Clearstream Banking AG says it’s cooperating with the prosecutors. The other banks declined to comment.

The practice came to light about a decade ago when officials at various tax offices started questioning requests for refunds on murky transactions totaling hundreds of millions of euros. As they dug more deeply, they stopped honoring the certificates and alerted prosecutors. A 2012 reform of the tax code brought the practice to a halt, but authorities had accepted the certificates for years, and lawmakers did little to tighten the rules despite repeated warnings, so the debate today centers on whether the trades were legal before 2012. Banks, funds, and investors that participated in the trades relied on legal opinions from lawyers that said the transactions were allowed. But prosecutors say those documents oversimplified the matter and that it was clear the transactions involved double-dipping on the refunds.

The probes have led to raids in more than a dozen countries over the past four years, and investigators have reviewed thousands of emails, voicemails, and Bloomberg chat sessions that traders used. They got a breakthrough last year when a handful of participants agreed to provide details of the deals. This summer the Bonn Regional Court is set to rule on whether the prosecutors can offer leniency to key witnesses. The Bonn court, which will hear cases resulting from the Cologne probe, has beefed up capacity and added an extra chamber to handle an expected wave of charges.

Prosecutors have settled cases with several banks and individuals, and others are seeking to cut deals, but given the magnitude of the tax damage, the investigators are reluctant to do so, one of the people says. Settlements, though, are inevitable because the justice system doesn’t have the capacity to try hundreds of suspects. Although German law doesn’t allow for criminal charges against companies, prosecutors can add them as associated parties to probes of their employees, and they can face substantial sanctions. “Many banks have started to explore cum/ex internally,” says Heiko Gemmel, an attorney at Hogan Lovells in Dusseldorf who advises clients on the issue. “Those who haven’t need to start now. The noose is tightening.”

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Unione Europea

Hedge Funds. Vendite allo scoperto su DB e Commerzbank.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-07-16.

Banche 016. Marinus Van Reymerswaele, Prestatori di denaro, 1542.

«putting these German banks in the same category as Italy’s.

Short positions on some big Italian banks»


«La vendita allo scoperto, chiamata anche vendita a nudo (in lingua inglese short selling, o semplicemente short), è un’operazione finanziaria che consiste nella vendita, effettuata nei confronti di uno o più soggetti terzi, di titoli non direttamente posseduti dal venditore. Più in generale con questa terminologia si denominano tutti i tipi di operatività finanziaria attuata con l’intento di ottenere un profitto a seguito di un trend o movimento ribassista delle quotazioni di titoli (azioni, strumenti, beni) prezzati in una borsa valori.

La vendita allo scoperto è un’operatività finanziaria di tipo prettamente speculativo e orientata verso un orizzonte temporale d’investimento di breve periodo. ….

Tali titoli, solitamente forniti da una banca o da un intermediario finanziario, durante lo short selling vengono istantaneamente prestati dal loro fornitore al venditore allo scoperto (chiamato anche scopertista o short seller oppure venditore a nudo) e quindi subito venduti da quest’ultimo.

Pertanto la vendita allo scoperto si configura come un prestito non di denaro bensì di titoli e, come solitamente accade in quello di denaro, vi è un interesse da corrispondere al datore del prestito. L’ammontare dell’interesse da pagare cresce in relazione all’aumento della durata di questo prestito di titoli, poiché chi effettua la vendita a nudo deve, entro un certo lasso temporale, acquistare sul mercato (quindi a prezzo di mercato) i titoli rifondendoli così al prestatore: operazione tecnicamente definita ricopertura dello scoperto (in inglese short covering). Per l’acquirente lo short selling attuato dal venditore è praticamente invisibile e perciò ininfluente, dunque per il compratore non vi è differenza tra i titoli acquistati da una vendita allo scoperto o non allo scoperto.» [Fonte]

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Il sistema bancario tedesco assomiglia sempre più ad un paziente malato di cancro inoperabile ai polmoni, che abbia contratto una polmonite virale.

I bollettini medici cautamente ottimisti suonerebbero come una solenne presa in giro. Per dirla in modo eufemistico: si faccia fagotto e si porti il gruzzolo altrove, sempre che ciò non sia già stato fatto.

Germania. L’impero economico della Spd inizia a perdere pezzi.

Commerzbank sta per essere radiata dal Dax.

Deutsche Bank US non supera gli stress test della Fed.

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«Deutsche Bank was the only one of 35 big banks operating in the United States to fail the US Federal Reserve’s recent round of stress tests. Commerzbank, a component of the DAX since its inception, may well be forced out of the index in the upcoming review as its market capitalization continues to decline relative to other blue chips.»

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«It’s hard to know where all this will end, but the short sellers seem confident it won’t end well for shareholders»

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«It was a familiar sight on Thursday morning: Shares of Germany’s two largest banks, Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank, were the worst-performing stocks in Germany’s blue-chip DAX. Perhaps that explains why they’ve become the target of massive short sales by US hedge funds, which are betting that share prices of the troubled institutions have even further to fall.»

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«Deutsche Bank, once Germany’s flagship financial institution, has four investment funds betting €979 billion ($1.1 billion) that its shares, already below €10, will decline even further. AQR Capital Management, one of Deutsche’s short sellers, also has a €172 million short position in Commerzbank.»

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«Adding insult to injury, hedge fund speculators seem to be putting these German banks in the same category as Italy’s. Short positions on some big Italian banks expect that their large holdings of government bonds and the country’s shaky finances will push down share prices.»

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Il problema è semplicissimo.

Per lunghi decenni la classe politica tedesca, specificatamente quella socialdemocratica, ha sostenuto politicamente il sistema bancario tedesco che ritenevano dovesse essere una delle loro migliori fonti di sostentamento.

Non solo hanno avuto mano pesante, la mafia è ben più morigerata, ma hanno anche riempito quelle banche di persone politicamente gradite ma professionalmente inette, ancorché in larga quota di sesso muliebre.

Adesso arrivano i conti da pagare: li pagheranno gli azionisti e tutta la Germania.


Handelsblatt. 2018-07-15. Hedge funds target Commerzbank, Deutsche Bank with short sales

Big investors are betting on further declines in the share price of Germany’s top banks. The short selling, a disputed trading technique, only adds to downward pressure on the stocks.

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It was a familiar sight on Thursday morning: Shares of Germany’s two largest banks, Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank, were the worst-performing stocks in Germany’s blue-chip DAX. Perhaps that explains why they’ve become the target of massive short sales by US hedge funds, which are betting that share prices of the troubled institutions have even further to fall.

Deutsche Bank, once Germany’s flagship financial institution, has four investment funds betting €979 billion ($1.1 billion) that its shares, already below €10, will decline even further. AQR Capital Management, one of Deutsche’s short sellers, also has a €172 million short position in Commerzbank.

Adding insult to injury, hedge fund speculators seem to be putting these German banks in the same category as Italy’s. Short positions on some big Italian banks expect that their large holdings of government bonds and the country’s shaky finances will push down share prices.

Short selling weighs on shares

Short selling is a standard practice for active investors. An investor borrows the shares from a stockholder for a fee and sells them in the open market in anticipation the price will decline. When the price goes down, the short seller buys back the shares and returns them to the owner, pocketing the profit on the sale.

The risk is that if the price instead goes up, the seller must pay more to buy them back and suffers a loss. The practice has its critics and is subject to abuse, but it adds liquidity to the market, helps investors in price discovery, and is a useful tool for hedging long positions in the same sector.

Short selling can become a self-fulfilling prophecy if enough investors jump on the bandwagon. At the very least, it can help depress the share price.

The short position on Deutsche, equivalent to nearly 5 percent of outstanding shares, helps explain its sharp decline in recent weeks. The bank’s shares have been flirting with new record lows since the end of May.

AQR, a fast-growing fund backed by US billionaire Cliff Asness, has a short position equal to 2.4 percent of Deutsche Bank’s shares, as well as the Commerzbank position, equal to 1.6 percent. Other hedge funds betting against Deutsche are Marshall Wallace (1.34 percent), Capital Fund (0.6 percent), and World Quant (0.51 percent). Investors are required to report only short positions exceeding 0.5 percent, so these big positions may not tell the whole story.

The problems of the two banks are well-chronicled. Deutsche has suffered years of losses from scandals, egregious missteps, and a cost-heavy structure. Swapping out chief executives in April has done little to slow its decline as it seems incapable of trimming costs as fast as it is losing business. Commerzbank suffers from years of troubles being an also-ran that has never had particularly good management. It remains part-owned by the German government after a bailout in 2008-2009.

Silver lining is possible rebound

The silver lining in this cloud is that shares can rebound when short sellers close out their positions and buy shares back. A crash in the blue-chip DAX index earlier this year is attributed in large part to short sellers. The subsequent recovery reflected them closing out their positions.

Bridgewater Associates, backed by US investor Ray Dalio, was particularly active shorting German blue chips. This backfired in the case of Bayer, which continued to rise despite the turmoil over its acquisition of Monsanto. But it succeeded spectacularly in the case of Deutsche Bank, which fell 25 percent from the end of January to mid-April without ever getting back to its starting point.

It was mid-April when Bridgewater’s short positions fell below the 0.5 percent reporting threshold. The DAX closed above 12,500 that day, after reaching its low for the year, 11,787, just three weeks earlier.

Short sellers may magnify gains and losses in share prices, but they ultimately reflect the underlying trend. The two German banks have shown little success in overcoming their difficulties and may well face darker days ahead.

Deutsche Bank was the only one of 35 big banks operating in the United States to fail the US Federal Reserve’s recent round of stress tests. Commerzbank, a component of the DAX since its inception, may well be forced out of the index in the upcoming review as its market capitalization continues to decline relative to other blue chips.

It’s hard to know where all this will end, but the short sellers seem confident it won’t end well for shareholders.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Unione Europea

Germania. L’impero economico della Spd inizia a perdere pezzi.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-07-15.

2018-07-14__Spd__001

«Homo sine pecunia est imago mortis


Uno dei più evidenti segni del collasso politico di un partito è il conseguente crollo delle realtà economiche che prima lo avevano supportato e che esso tutelava con cura amorosa. Se è vero che talora il collasso economico potrebbe anche precedere quello politico, sicuramente la perdita del potere politico determina la morte di quello economico. Ma mantenere i partiti politici costa, ed anche molto.

Nell’Occidente infatti un certo quale numero di grandi entità economiche hanno potuto prosperare solo ed unicamente grazie alla copertura politica che era loro concessa dai potenti di turno, e questa poi si sdebitavano in modo adeguato.

Ma qualora venisse a mancare un ragionevole senso dell’equilibrio, il potere politico diventa insaziabile, sempre più esigente, ed impone al sistema economico tutta una lunga serie di scelte che, essendo politiche, per definizione non sono produttive. In altri termini, se la politica parassita l’economica, sarebbe altrettanto vero che un certo sottoinsieme economico sopravvive esclusivamente con un appoggio politico, venendo a mancare il quale si avvia mestamente al fallimento.

Ci si rende conto perfettamente di quanto sia delicato il problema.

Se sicuramente la politica deve orientare le grandi strategie economiche di una nazione, altrettanto sicuramente non può parassitarle fino alla loro estinzione. Nessuno si scandalizza che i politici si arricchiscano, ed anche in modo consistente: è da quando esiste la storia scritta che questa realtà è evidente in ogni qualsiasi Collettività.

Ripetiamo: il problema è solo il rimanere nell’alveo di un ragionevole buon senso.

*

La Tabella riportata è eloquente.

Nel 1972 la Spd raggiunse il 18.9% nei voti circoscrizionali ed il 45.8% dei voti proporzionali. È riuscita a restare sopra il 40% fino al 2000, quindi è restata coinvolte nel processo mondiale di devoluzione del’ideologia socialista: alle ultime elezioni ha conseguito nel proporzionale il 20.5% dei voti, ed attualmente è quotata attorno al 17%. Si è dimezzata.

Ma la perdita del potere di influenza sul sistema economico non segue andamento lineare. Quando un partito scende sotto una certa quale soglia percentuale, in linea generale un 20%, diventa virtualmente ininfluente. Il suo passato splendore economico diventa argomento di bucoliche ridondanze di vecchietti che si struggono nel ricordo del passato: la totale mancanza di una prospettiva futura diventa il loro inferno già su questa terra.

È il momento in cui si scatenano le forze contrarie.

È infatti del tutto evidente come questa devoluzione possa essere fortemente accelerata distruggendo le basi economiche del partito socialdemocratico. E sono molti coloro che intendono togliersi tutti i sassolini dalle scarpe.

* * * * * * *

«A German court has handed down lengthy jail sentences in one of the biggest financial swindles in the country’s history»

*

«But it’s a verdict that not all investors are happy about»

*

«A court in Dresden on Monday sentenced the founder of financial services firm Infinus, Jörg Biehl, to eight years in prison for fraud»

*

«Four other managers from the Infinus empire received sentences of between five years and four months to six years and 10 months»

*

«Yet many investors have disagreed and sided with defense attorneys, who argued that the company would have survived if the police hadn’t come knocking.»

Badate bene ad una corretta lettura della seguente frase:

«who argued that the company would have survived if the police hadn’t come knocking.»

Non ci sarebbe stato il fallimento se la polizia non fosse intervenuta. Ma la polizia è invece intervenuta su specifico ordine dei nuovi potenti.

*

Si faccia alquanta attenzione. Molte realtà economiche tedesche sono state in piedi, e lo sono ancora ancorché traballanti, solo perché disponevano di appoggi politici che convogliavano su di esse rivoli di fondi pubblici.

Mutato il quadro politico, si preannunciano grandiosi fallimenti.

Nota.

Nessuno ha la sfera di cristallo: il futuro è semplicemente imprevedibile.

Se però, come di norma, le prospezioni elettorali fossero abbastanza precise, i sondaggi darebbero in Baviera l’Spd al 12% ed AfD al 14%. La Csu sarebbe ulteriormente in discesa al 39%.

È quanto basta per sconvolgere gli attuali equilibri.


Handelsblatt. 2018-07-11. Jail time for German Ponzi schemers in the Infinus scam

A German court has handed down lengthy jail sentences in one of the biggest financial swindles in the country’s history. But it’s a verdict that not all investors are happy about.

*

It’s one of the biggest financial scandals in German history – depending on who you ask.

A court in Dresden on Monday sentenced the founder of financial services firm Infinus, Jörg Biehl, to eight years in prison for fraud. Four other managers from the Infinus empire received sentences of between five years and four months to six years and 10 months. Another employee was given 4 1/2 years for abetting fraud.

Prosecutors accused the managers of running a Ponzi scheme, whereby returns for older investors are covered from the money of new investors. It’s a fraudulent business model that is doomed to fail over time. Yet many investors have disagreed and sided with defense attorneys, who argued that the company would have survived if the police hadn’t come knocking.

Mr. Biehl, 56, and the other defendants were charged with defrauding 22,000 investors to the tune of €320 million ($375 million). That’s only a fraction of the suspected losses, though. Overall, more than 50,000 investors are believed to have invested up to €2 billion in the 22 companies of the Infinus group. To prevent the trial getting too complicated, prosecutors focused only on part of the intricate web of companies surrounding Infinus AG and Future Business KG.

The court heard testimony from 220 witnesses in the trial that started back in November 2015. The prosecutors summarized their evidence in 757 pages, quite an achievement given that their files ran to 60 folders with 15,000 pages.

In the end, the judge ruled that the company was unsustainable because it could not have generated the promised returns.

A success story in the making

Infinus started out in 2001, buying up life insurance policies and offering the owners improved surrender values. The sellers then invested their freed-up money in new financial products offered by Infinus, such as fixed-interest bonds, registered bonds and profit participation rights with attractive interest rates.

The court was convinced that, after a time, the managers could only keep on paying out the returns by tapping fund inflows from new investors and finding inventive ways to conjure up new liquidity, such as arranging big new life insurance policies for subsidiaries and employees that immediately generated millions of euros in new income.

While everything was going well, the company managed to attract celebrities such as soccer greats Franz Beckenbauer and Oliver Kahn, and ice-skating legend Katharina Witt to annual parties to honor the best salesmen and women.

But then, in November 2013, the empire collapsed following police raids and suspicions that it was defrauding investors. During the trial, Mr. Biehl said Infinus had been a success story that “some people had disliked.” Prosecutors argued they had to intervene to prevent bigger losses.

Ready to appeal

Not surprisingly, the defendants plan to appeal. That means the verdict will have to be reviewed by the Federal Court of Justice, Germany’s highest court in all matters of criminal and civil jurisdiction.

Defense attorneys said the court ignored evidence, including a report by the Dresden financial authority, which had declared in 2017 that Infinus had “a sustainable business model from a fiscal point of view.” It was the authority’s argument for rejecting a claim by one of the group’s insolvency administrators for the repayment of €17 million in tax.

“The court didn’t want to hear anyone from the financial authority as a witness,” said Ulf Israel, Mr. Biehl’s defense attorney. “You can’t have that.”

Getting money back

The court’s verdict is bad news for many investors who put money in profit participation rights sold by Infinus subsidiary Prosavus. But it strengthens the case of insolvency administrator Frank-Rüdiger Scheffler, who is waging some 800 lawsuits demanding the return of up to €15 million in interest paid to investors. He says the earnings-related interest should never have been paid out because the company wasn’t generating any real earnings.

That spells trouble for people like former broker Raymond Neumann, an investor who traveled to Dresden for the verdict but who couldn’t get into the packed court. “They want €68,000 back from me too,” he said.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Cina, Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Geopolitica Mondiale

Aiib. Infrastrutture asiatiche necessitano 1.7 trilioni Usd ogni anno fino al 2030.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-07-05.

Pechino-Cina

«Xinhua News Agency or New China News Agency is the official state-run press agency of the People’s Republic of China. Xinhua is the biggest and most influential media organization in China, as well as the largest news agency in the world in terms of correspondents worldwide. Xinhua is a ministry-level institution subordinate to the Chinese central government, and is the highest ranking state media organ in the country alongside the People’s Daily. Its president is a member of the Central Committee of China’s Communist Party.»

*

Aiib,( Asian infrastructure investment bank) è la banca di sviluppo dei Brics nata nell’ottobre 2014, a sostegno dell’Obor (nuova via della seta). C’è poi il Silk Road Fund.

Progetto cinese Obor, One belt One Road, coinvolge più di un terzo del pil mondiale, per ora.

«Obor coinvolgerebbe fino a 65 nazioni: più della metà della popolazione mondiale, tre quarti delle riserve energetiche e un terzo del prodotto interno lordo globale, rappresenterebbe il più grande progetto di investimento mai compiuto prima, superando, al netto dell’inflazione odierna, di almeno 12 volte l’European Recovery Program, il celebre Piano Marshall»

Obor. Progetto cinese su di un terzo del pil mondiale, per ora.

Cina. Grande Muraglia contro la Germania. – Handelsblatt.

*

«The third annual meeting of Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) kicked off in India’s financial hub Mumbai on Monday with the theme “Mobilizing Finance for Infrastructure: Innovation and Collaboration.”»

*

«At AIIB Governors’ seminar during the event on Monday, AIIB President Jin Liqun stressed the need to increase the private-sector investment in financing the infrastructure in developing countries of Asia»

*

«We are trying to work with the private sector to do infrastructure projects and investments in other productive sectors so that we don’t have to put pressure on the balance-sheet of the government»

*

«I believe that we are not just financers, we are problem solver for the government, for the private sector»

*

«Lean, clean and green is the way we work. We invest in sustainability and are guided by those priorities. Our bank is apolitical and all projects have to pass our test on sustainability»

*

«According to the latest AIIB annual report, the bank has financed 23 projects worth 4.2 billion U.S. dollars, a significant increase from 2016»

*

«It was estimated that Asia’s infrastructure needs will be over 1.7 trillion U.S. dollars per year till 2030»

* * * * * * *

Aiib è uno dei tanti veicoli finanziari tramite i quali la Cina finanzia il suo piano di infrastrutture asiatiche.

Nella sua globalità, questo progetto abbisogna di circa 1,700 miliardi Usd ogni anno: sono cifre da capogiro.

L’approccio cinese è linearmente semplice ed empirico.

Finanziano progetti che abbiano immediate o future ricadute in termini di resa economica: alimentano soltanto investimenti produttivi, che producano guadagni sia per la Cina sia per i paesi coinvolti. Tutti devono guadagnare qualcosa.

Non solo.

Nello stipulare gli accordi, i cinesi trattano su scala paritetica, non pongono vincoli politici e ben si guardano da vincoli etici e/o morali. Tanto meno la Cina gradisce intromettersi nei problemi di gestione interna degli stati partner.

Non solo.

Come detto, ma sembrerebbe opportuno ripeterlo data la importanza, mentre gli occidentali contraggono debiti sempre più consistenti per alimentare il loro welfare, i cinesi investono quasi soltanto nel comparto produttivo, dando al welfare solo il minimo indispensabile alla dignitosa sussistenza. E questa è la strategia vincente.

Pil 2018 – 2022. – Previsioni dell’IMF. Grandi sorprese in arrivo.


Xinhua. 2018-06-25. Spotlight: AIIB meeting kicks off with focus on private sector investment in infrastructure

MUMBAI, June 25 (Xinhua) — The third annual meeting of Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) kicked off in India’s financial hub Mumbai on Monday with the theme “Mobilizing Finance for Infrastructure: Innovation and Collaboration.”

Over 3,000 delegates from over 80 members as well as varied multinational organizations are attending the two-day event, which will see brainstorming sessions on how to mobilize finance for huge infrastructure needs in developing countries in Asia and beyond.

Policy-makers, officials from AIIB members, and participants from partner organizations, private sector and civil society organizations will share their insights on addressing the huge infrastructure-deficit in a sustainable, environment and society-friendly manner.

At AIIB Governors’ seminar during the event on Monday, AIIB President Jin Liqun stressed the need to increase the private-sector investment in financing the infrastructure in developing countries of Asia.

“We are trying to work with the private sector to do infrastructure projects and investments in other productive sectors so that we don’t have to put pressure on the balance-sheet of the government,” said Jin.

He called upon all the governments in Asia in particular to clear hurdles in the way of private-sector investment for building infrastructure.

He also hoped that the private sector will be more than willing to pour money into infrastructure projects if government clears practical hurdles in the way of investment.

He said that AIIB wants to work as a bridge between private sector and governments.

Jin also shared the best practices adopted by the Chinese government in clearing hurdles for building massive infrastructure across China. “We must be innovative and we must be responsive to the needs of the (local) people,” he said.

He also termed the Beijing-based bank as a problem-solver in order to forge a win-win partnership. “I believe that we are not just financers, we are problem solver for the government, for the private sector,” he said.

At a media-briefing during the event, AIIB Vice President Danny Alexander also enumerated priorities and lending norms of the AIIB. “Lean, clean and green is the way we work. We invest in sustainability and are guided by those priorities. Our bank is apolitical and all projects have to pass our test on sustainability and environment,” he said.

He also said that AIIB would consider investing in projects outside Asia as long as they serve to benefit Asian regions too.

This year, AIIB also launched an inaugural Asian Infrastructure Forum during the Mumbai meeting, drawing investors from private companies around the globe. Speakers at the forum called upon multinational companies to follow public-private partnership model in order to build cross-country connectivity in Asia.

On the sidelines of the AIIB meeting, an “India Infrastructure Expo 2018” was also organized by the host country to highlight the tremendous scope of building infrastructure in India.

While inaugurating the expo on Sunday, India’s Finance Minister Piyush Goyal welcomed AIIB guests from around the world. “We’re extremely delighted at the progress that the Bank has made,” he said.

The indian minister has also lauded AIIB for its achievements in a short time-span of three years.

“The Asian Infrastructure Investment bank has really matured in a short period of time, and is rapidly progressing to become one of the most important infrastructure financiers across the world,” said the minister, who is also on the board of governors at AIIB.

Various private companies and international agencies are showcasing their latest solutions, advanced technologies and other offerings in the arena of infrastructure development at the India Infrastructure Expo.

Among others, International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), a UN agency headquartered in Rome is also ready to join hands with AIIB in the area of rural-infrastructure in countries like India and China.

Alexander Boehm, IFAD’s representative and technical specialist at the Global Engagement Knowledge and Strategic Division, told Xinhua at the sidelines of the meeting that China and India share the responsibility to lead new international institutions.

“Given their size, given their market size and enormous potential, it only makes sense to these countries to be more active internationally,” he said, while highlighting the potential scope in building rural-infrastructure in India and China as well as other developing nations.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to address the gathering on Tuesday.

During the annual AIIB meeting, 22 seminars focusing on building infrastructure in Asia and beyond, gender and infrastructure and finding ways to fund infrastructure are being organized.

According to the latest AIIB annual report, the bank has financed 23 projects worth 4.2 billion U.S. dollars, a significant increase from 2016.

It was estimated that Asia’s infrastructure needs will be over 1.7 trillion U.S. dollars per year till 2030.

India has emerged as the biggest beneficiary of the multilateral bank with the country already garnering 1.2 billion U.S. dollars of funds. Another 1.9 billion U.S. dollars of fund to finance various projects in India has also been approved by the bank.

While 75 percent of the bank’s capital comes from Asia, some members from non-Asian regions like Europe, North America, and East Africa, among others, have also joined the bank.

Pubblicato in: Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Persona Umana, Sistemi Economici

Italia. 394,000 con patrimonio finanziario sopra il milione.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-07-04.

Dürer Albrecht. Jacob Fugger, il Ricco. 1519. Staatsgalerie Altdeutsche Meister, Augsburg

Nel 2017 sono state censite 307mila famiglie con patrimonio finanziario superiore al milione.

Italia. 307mila (1.2%) famiglie controllano il 20% della ricchezza finanziaria.

Ad oggi sarebbero stimabili a 394,000.

Un milione di euro sono sicuramente una gran bella cifra, ma tenendo conto di un tasso di interesse medio attorno al 3% la resa netta di un milione in prodotti finanziari si aggira attorno ai 24,000 euro all’anno. Troppo poco per poter definire ricchi i proprietari.

La Ricchezza. Domandiamoci cosa sia.

«Si potrebbe definire ricca la persona che goda delle seguenti caratteristiche.

(1) Avere disponibilità tali da potersi permettere personale stipendiato addetto esclusivamente alla propria persona od interessi personali, quindi, oltre l’usuale personale domestico addetto alle pulizie ed alla cucina, ed agli eventuali dipendenti sul lavoro. Alcuni esempi potrebbero meglio chiarire quanto detto. Un segretario/segretaria personale oppure l’autista potrebbero essere esempi concreti.

(2). Non avere necessità ordinarie, in accordo al proprio stato sociale, che richiedano l’uso completo delle rendite, per cui una quota più o meno consistente di esse venga reinvestita in quanto non utilizzata. Ossia, che i beni produttori di reddito si auto sostengano nel tempo. La ricchezza che genera ricchezza in un circolo virtuoso.»

Usando una definizione di questo tipo, il livello di entrate nette varia in funzione del tenore di vita: assumendo una persona normale, né prodiga né troppo parsimoniosa, si potrebbe dire che sia ‘ricco‘ chi abbia entrate nette per almeno 240,000 euro l’anno. Con interessi netti del 2%, sarebbe necessario un capitale finanziario di circa dieci milioni di euro. Entrate nette minori giustificherebbero più propriamente il termine di ‘benestante‘.

* * * * * * * * * * *

Intanto, ricordiamo alcune definizioni usate in campo internazionale.

«What is a ‘High Net Worth Individual – HNWI’

High net worth individual (HNWI) is a classification used by the financial services industry to denote an individual or a family with high net worth. Although there is no precise definition of how rich somebody must be to fit into this category, high net worth is generally quoted in terms of liquid assets over a certain figure. The exact amount differs by financial institution and region.

The most commonly quoted figure for membership in the high net worth club is $1 million in liquid financial assets.

An investor with less than $1 million but more than $100,000 is considered to be “affluent” or perhaps even “sub-HNWI.”

The upper end of HNWI is around $5 million, at which point the client is then referred to as “very HNWI.”

More than $30 million in wealth classifies a person as “ultra HNWI.”» [Fonte]

*

Ricapitolando e ricordando che si tratta solo di asset liquidi di persone fisiche.

– Affluent ovvero sub-Hnwi: 100,000$ – 1,000,000$;

– Hnwi: 1,000,000$ – 5,000,000$;

– very Hnwi: 5,000,000$ – 30,000,000$;

– billionaires: più di un miliardo di Usd.

*

«Global wealth reached $201.9 trillion on equities, soft dollar»

*

«the rich are getting richer faster»

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«The 28 Eastern Europeans in the Bloomberg Billionaires Index have a total net worth of $294 billion »

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«In North America, which had $86.1 trillion of total wealth, 42 percent of investable capital is held by people with more than $5 million in assets. Investable assets include equities, investment funds, cash and bonds.»

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«The U.S. is home to the largest number of people with more than $100 million. Globally, the ranks of the ultra-rich are expected to reach 671,000 by 2022.»

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«The Middle East was the region with the greatest share of wealth held in investable assets —- $3.1 trillion of a total $3.8 trillion.»

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«Western European residents held 56 percent in currency and deposits, while in North America the emphasis was on equities and investment funds, with 62 percent of $47 trillion of investable wealth parked in those assets»

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«Nel 2017 l’analisi Bcg ha stimato in 394mila gli italiani milionari, cioè coloro che hanno un patrimonio finanziario di almeno un milione di dollari»

* * * * * * * *

Alcune considerazioni sorgono spontanee.

– La stima del controvalore degli asset liquidi – azioni e bond – dipende dalle quotazioni dei titoli e dei cambi. In un quadro sostanzialmente stabile le stime sembrerebbero essere corrette, ma si tenga presente che  turbolenza sono pur sempre possibili.

– Nei momenti di turbolenze anche severe, usualmente i ricchi riescono a perdere percentualmente meno dei meno doviziosi soprattutto per l’accesso ad informazioni di prima mano: informazioni che spesso consentono non solo di evitare le perdite, ma anche di trarne guadagni.

– Usualmente, i ricchi sanno utilizzare i consulenti finanziari e ed i tributaristi per razionalizzare il carico fiscale. Ricordiamo semplicemente come un consulente povero impoverisce il cliente.

– Se oltre un secolo di cultura socialista ha lasciato il retaggio di considerare la ricchezza quasi un reato, un furto, ed ha postulato che lo stato avesse il compito di ‘ridistribuire‘ la ricchezza, sarebbe da ricordare come siano proprio i ricchi i principali contributori agli investimenti produttivi, gli unici in grado dia generare ricchezza e posti di lavoro.

– Il problema quindi non si pone nel vituperare e cercare di depauperare i ricchi, quanto piuttosto di poter dare a tutti l’opportunità di guadagnare e mettersi da parte qualcosa secondo possibilità.


Bloomberg 24 Ore. 2018-06-15. Millionaires Now Control Half of the World’s Personal Wealth

– Global wealth reached $201.9 trillion on equities, soft dollar

– Fastest growth in Asia, where fortunes increased 19% last year

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The rich are getting a lot richer and doing so a lot faster.

Personal wealth around the globe reached $201.9 trillion last year, a 12 percent gain from 2016 and the strongest annual pace in the past five years, Boston Consulting Group said in a report released Thursday. Booming equity markets swelled fortunes, and investors outside the U.S. got an exchange-rate bonus as most major currencies strengthened against the greenback. 

The growing ranks of millionaires and billionaires now hold almost half of global personal wealth, up from slightly less than 45 percent in 2012, according to the report. In North America, which had $86.1 trillion of total wealth, 42 percent of investable capital is held by people with more than $5 million in assets. Investable assets include equities, investment funds, cash and bonds.

“The fact that the wealth held by millionaires as a percentage of total wealth is increasing does not mean that the poor are getting poorer,” Anna Zakrzewski, the report’s lead author, said in an emailed statement. “What it means is that everyone is getting richer. Specifically, we believe that the rich are getting richer faster.”

Last year’s big winner was China, which now ranks second globally in terms of financial wealth after overtaking Japan in the past five years, Zakrzewski said. While China trails only the U.S. in the number of millionaires and billionaires, the biggest driver of growth in the Asian country was its so-called affluent segment, or those with $250,000 to $1 million of investable assets.

“China will continue to experience similar growth as in the past and this will mean that over the next five years, there will be more wealth created in China than in the U.S.,” she said, adding the number of millionaires there is expected to grow four times as fast as in the U.S.

Without the boost from a weakening dollar, the global wealth gain would have been 7 percent. The region that benefited the most from currency appreciation was Western Europe, where a 15 percent advance in U.S. dollar terms shrinks to 3 percent in local currency.

Eastern Europe and Central Asia had the greatest concentration of wealth at the top, with billionaires alone holding almost a quarter of investable assets. The 28 Eastern Europeans in the Bloomberg Billionaires Index have a total net worth of $294 billion, which includes a gain of $3.4 billion so far in 2018.

Wealth is also highly concentrated in Hong Kong, where individuals with more than $20 million hold 47 percent of investable riches.

Money in investment funds and publicly traded equities gained the most, while bonds were the only core asset class to post negative growth last year, falling 7 percent.

Top-Tier Wealth

The U.S. is home to the largest number of people with more than $100 million. Globally, the ranks of the ultra-rich are expected to reach 671,000 by 2022.

The Middle East was the region with the greatest share of wealth held in investable assets —- $3.1 trillion of a total $3.8 trillion. Western European residents held 56 percent in currency and deposits, while in North America the emphasis was on equities and investment funds, with 62 percent of $47 trillion of investable wealth parked in those assets.

If personal wealth creation continues at the rate of the past few years, Boston Consulting projects a compound annual growth rate of about 7 percent from 2017 to 2022, in U.S. dollars. Events like stock market corrections and geopolitical uncertainties could knock that down to 4 percent.

In a worse-case scenario, such as a major economic crisis, global wealth might produce a compound growth rate of only 1 percent over five years, the study found. 


Sole 24 Ore. 2018-06-15. Super ricchi: balzo del 12% a livello mondiale. E l’Italia è in crescita

Dodici per cento. È l’ennesimo balzo in avanti che ha fatto la ricchezza finanziaria nel 2017 a livello mondiale.

Non solo. È cresciuta più del doppio rispetto all’anno precedente, quando era aumentata del 4%. Degno di nota è anche il fatto che questo incremento è il più alto degli ultimi cinque anni. Stiamo parlando a livello complessivo di una montagna di denaro pari a di 201,9 mila miliardi di dollari americani, attribuibile agli individui con patrimoni superiori al milione di dollari.

Italia all’ottavo posto

In uno scenario ottimistico di crescita, la ricchezza finanziaria personale globale potrebbe aumentare a un tasso annuo composto di circa il 7% tra il 2017 e il 2022. Continuano a guidare la classifica Stati Uniti con 80mila miliardi, Cina con 21mila miliardi e il Giappone con 17mila miliardi. L’Italia registra una crescita del 3%, totalizza 5mila miliardi di dollari e si aggiudica l’ottava posizione per ricchezza finanziaria. Sono queste alcune delle evidenze emerse dalla rapporto annuale sulla ricchezza mondiale di The Boston Consulting Group (Global Wealth 2018: Seizing the Analytics Advantage), giunto alla 18esima edizione.

Asia al top per crescita

Che la ricchezza finanziaria cresca in Asia non è una novità. Da anni infatti alcuni paesi come Cina, HongKong, Taiwan e Sud Corea segnano questo trend di crescita tra i più alti nel mondo. Ma quello che ha fatto la differenza tra il 2016 e il 2017 è l’impatto dell’andamento delle valute. Se infatti guardiamo la crescita della ricchezza a cambi costanti l’Asia ha registrato un +12%, il Nord America un +7% e l’Europa occidentale il +3%. Ma se invece si analizza la crescita a cambi variabili, la regione con la miglior performance è ancora l’Asia in generale che segna +19%, seguita dall’Est Europa e Asia Centrale con +18%. In questo scenario l’Europa occidentale batte il Nord America in termini di crescita, rispettivamente +15% e +8%.

In Italia 394mila milionari

Per quanto riguarda l’Italia il nostro paese segna una crescita in linea a quella europea, registrando un aumento del 3%. Ma in prospettiva secondo l’analisi di Bcg l’incremento dovrebbe passare al 5% annuo tra il 2018 e il 2022. Un altro driver determinante di crescita è stato l’andamento dei mercati azionari in tutte le principali economie – con la ricchezza in equity e fondi di investimento che ha registrato la crescita di gran lunga più forte. Nel 2017 l’analisi Bcg ha stimato in 394mila gli italiani milionari, cioè coloro che hanno un patrimonio finanziario di almeno un milione di dollari. Entro il 2022 le stime prevedono che la ricchezza personale degli italiani possa toccare 7mila miliardi di dollari.

Il divario ricchi-poveri aumenta

Nel mondo il divario tra ricchissimi e poveri aumenta. Ma in alcuni paesi cresce anche la classe media. Tra i segmenti più attrattivi per chi fa wealth management ci sono infatti gli individui con ricchezze sopra i 20 milioni (upper hnwi) e quelli con ricchezze tra i 250 mila e il milione (affluent) perché sono i segmenti che crescono di più.
Nel 2017 i super super ricchi (chi ha più di 100 milioni investiti) e coloro che hanno patrimoni tra i 20/100 milioni detenevano ricchezze sopra in 26mila miliardi di dollari investiti (su un totale di 201mila miliardi). Gli Usa si aggiudicano il primato di ricchezza perché più del 30% di questi due segmenti risiede nel nuovo continente. Super super ricchi sono anche in Cina, Hong Kong, India, Russia, Brasile, Germania che per questo si aggiudica il terzo posto in assoluto tra i paesi più ricchi al mondo, Francia e Italia. E sono soprattutto i super paperoni americani a detenere partecipazioni di aziende quotate e non: il 61% del loro patrimonio contro il 52% di quello dei paperoni europei e il 37% del patrimonio degli asiatici. Supera gli Usa con il 7,5% di penetrazione di milionari la Svizzera, segue il nuovo continente Hong Kong con il 3,8%. Nella zona euro è in assoluto il Lussemburgo ad avere la penetrazione più alta con 2,2% delle popolazione.

Pubblicato in: Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Stati Uniti

Deutsche Bank US non supera gli stress test della Fed.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-06-30.

A statue is pictured next to the logo of Germany's Deutsche Bank in Frankfurt

Deutsche Bank è da tempo agli onori della cronica, ma ne avrebbe fatto volentieri a meno.

In parole povere, sta andando di male in peggio.

Deutsche Bank. Asset azionario e terrorismo. I proprietari.

Deutsche Bank. Il Qatar mira al 25%. HBJ

Deutsche Bank. Mai mettere i tedeschi spalle al muro.

Guerra civile americana. Liberals democratici e Deutsche Bank.

Deutsche Bank tumbles down private bank rankings after tough 2016

Deutsche Bank fined by regulators over money laundering claims

Germania. Deutsche Bank esclusa dal novero delle banche mondiali.

Deutsche Bank AG. Un nuovo buco da 2.2 mld. -6.29%.

Deutsche Bank. Le cattive notizie diventano pessime. Quei 35 mld Usd ….

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«Deutsche Bank’s US division has failed the second round of the Federal Reserve’s annual two-stage stress tests, designed to assess how well the sector could withstand another financial crisis»

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«The German lender suffered from “widespread and critical deficiencies” in parts of its business, the Fed said»

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Nessuno intende fare allarmismi, sia ben chiaro. D’altra parte, Deutsche Bank sarebbe in compagnia di Goldman Sachs e Morgan Stanley, ma il fatto che i lebbrosi siano tre invece che uno non è certo motivo di particolare gioia.

«The Fed measures whether banks are holding sufficient capital to cope with a recession and in the second part of the process it focuses on banks’ “capital plans” such as how much cash they intend to return to shareholders»

*

Treccani definisce in questi termini il vocabolo ‘prudenza‘.

«L’atteggiamento cauto ed equilibrato di chi, intuendo la presenza di un pericolo o prevedendo le conseguenze dei suoi atti, si comporta in modo da non correre inutili rischi e da evitare a sé e ad altri qualsiasi possibile danno»

Di prudenza non è mai morto nessuno.


Bbc. 2018-06-29. Deutsche Bank’s US unit fails Fed’s stress test

Deutsche Bank’s US division has failed the second round of the Federal Reserve’s annual two-stage stress tests, designed to assess how well the sector could withstand another financial crisis.

The German lender suffered from “widespread and critical deficiencies” in parts of its business, the Fed said.

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were only granted “conditional” passes.

But 31 of the 35 banks tested were given the all-clear.

Stress tests were introduced in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis and every year America’s central bank, the Federal Reserve, puts the country’s banks, including foreign subsidiaries operating in the country, through their paces.

The Fed measures whether banks are holding sufficient capital to cope with a recession and in the second part of the process it focuses on banks’ “capital plans” such as how much cash they intend to return to shareholders. However this is the first year that the results of the US units of foreign banks have been publicly released.

All of the 35 largest banks subject to the tests passed the first part of the tests last week.

But the Fed found Deutsche Bank’s US arm had “material weaknesses in the firm’s data capabilities and controls supporting its capital planning process, as well as weaknesses in its approaches and assumptions used to forecast revenues and losses under stress”.

The verdict is another blow for the troubled German lender whose financial health has been under the spotlight recently. And it will require the bank to make changes to the way it operates in the US.

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were given passes, but will not be permitted to increase the amount they return to shareholders beyond levels inline with the last couple of years, in order to bolster their capital cushions.

The Fed said it was also granting a conditional pass to Boston-based State Street, which will be required to take additional steps to manage and analyse its exposure to losses.

Last year was the first time all banks passed the second round of the tests.

The second part of the tests is closely watched because it determines how much firms can return to shareholders in the form of items like share buybacks and dividends.

‘One-off event’

The Fed said it had granted the conditional pass to Goldman and Morgan Stanley because the companies’ results had been skewed by tax changes passed last year.

The tax overhaul lowered the corporate rate from 35% to 21%, but led to larger-than-usual one-off tax bills for many banks, as a result of other changes to how losses and overseas profits are taxed.

“This one-time reduction does not reflect a firm’s performance under stress and firms can expect higher post-tax earnings going forward,” the Fed said.

Despite the restrictions, Goldman will still be permitted to spend up to $6.3bn on share buybacks and dividends this year.

Morgan Stanley said it planned to return $6.8bn to shareholders.

Making progress

The decision is the latest blow for troubled Deutsche Bank. Last month the firm announced more than 7,000 job cuts and its credit rating was cut by Standard & Poor’s. The bank reported an annual loss of €500m (£438m) at the end of February.

Deutsche said its US division had “made significant investments to improve its capital planning capabilities as well as controls and infrastructure.”

“Deutsche Bank USA continues to make progress across a range of programmes and will continue to build on these efforts and to engage constructively with regulators to meet both internal and regulatory expectations,” the bank said.

The bank will be required to improve its operations, risk management and governance as a result of the test-failure. It will not be able to make distributions to its German parent firm without the Fed’s approval.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Finanza e Sistema Bancario

Banche Centrali russa, cinese e giapponese. Sono in corso grandi manovre.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-06-25.

2018-06-22__Banche Centrali russa e cinese. Sono in corso grandi manovre.__001

Le Banche Centrali russa, cinese e giapponese stanno rimaneggiando in modo consistente gli assetti delle loro riserve valutarie.

«holdings of U.S. government debt cut in half to $48.7 billion»

*

«Russia is rethinking what counts as a haven asset as it duels with the U.S.»

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«it’s about changing allocation as reserves continue to grow …. Rising U.S. yields have fueled the sell-off.»

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«Russia sold $47.4 billion of Treasuries in April, more than any other major foreign holder of the U.S. securities, even as its reserves grew on the back of rising oil prices. Its stockpile of $48.7 billion is down from a 2010 peak of over $176 billion, ranking it only 22nd worldwide»

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«By contrast, the central bank keeps adding to its gold hoard, bringing the share of bullion in its international reserves to the highest of President Vladimir Putin’s 18 years in power»

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«The Bank of Russia said on Wednesday that its holdings of gold rose by 1 percent in May to 62 million troy ounces, valuing them at $80.5 billion»

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«Considering the size of Russia’s Treasury holdings, its move hardly made a dent in the $14.9 trillion Treasuries market»

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«China’s holdings of U.S. bonds, bills and notes decreased by $5.8 billion to $1.18 trillion in April »

*

«Japan, saw its Treasuries drop by $12.3 billion to $1.03 trillion»

* * * * * * *

La tabella di dati prodota dalla International Reserves of the Russian Federation (End of period), International Reserves of the Russian Federation (End of period), The Central Ban of the Russian Federation, è davvero molto eloquente. La Russia dispone ora di 1,909.8 tonnellate di oro, per un controvalore riportato di 80.5 miliardi Usd.

Sono molteplici le cause che hanno indotto queste tre banche centrali ad immettere sul mercato una parte delle riserve valutarie detenute in Treasury. Forse un delle principali risiede nel fatto che all’aumento dei tassi di interesse stabiliti dalla Fed consegue una riduzione delle quotazioni. Tuttavia altri scopi non sono sicuramente da escludersi.

Nessuno si faccia illusioni.

Tra un qualche tempo anche noi italiani ne sentiremo gli effetti.


Bloomberg. 2018-06-21. Russia Dumps Treasuries for Gold

– holdings of U.S. government debt cut in half to $48.7 billion

– Danske says move is about ‘keeping money safe’ from U.S.

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Russia is rethinking what counts as a haven asset as it duels with the U.S.

Although investors usually seek safety in U.S. debt, Russia cut its holdings of Treasuries nearly in half in April as Washington slapped the harshest sanctions to date on a selection of Russian companies and individuals. In a shift Danske Bank A/S attributed to a deepening “geopolitical standoff,” Russia is instead keeping up its purchases of gold.

“Some people ask whether the Russian central bank sold them to support the ruble in April, but it’s about changing allocation as reserves continue to grow,” said Vladimir Miklashevsky, a senior economist at Danske Bank in Helsinki. “Rising U.S. yields have fueled the sell-off.”

Russia sold $47.4 billion of Treasuries in April, more than any other major foreign holder of the U.S. securities, even as its reserves grew on the back of rising oil prices. Its stockpile of $48.7 billion is down from a 2010 peak of over $176 billion, ranking it only 22nd worldwide, according to data released Friday.

By contrast, the central bank keeps adding to its gold hoard, bringing the share of bullion in its international reserves to the highest of President Vladimir Putin’s 18 years in power. The Bank of Russia said on Wednesday that its holdings of gold rose by 1 percent in May to 62 million troy ounces, valuing them at $80.5 billion. In May, Governor Elvira Nabiullina said gold purchases help diversify reserves.

Poor Returns

With the geopolitical stakes so high, Russia may not be overly concerned about returns on its investment. Still, gold has underperformed U.S. debt so far this year, losing over 3 percent as the outlook for higher borrowing costs dimmed prospects for the metal, which doesn’t pay interest. Meanwhile, after handing investors positive returns for the past four years straight, Treasuries have generated a loss of 1.6 percent in 2018.

Putin warned shortly after his inauguration for a fourth term as president that Russia is seeking to “break” from the dollar and diversify reserves to bolster “economic sovereignty.” But according to the central bank’s latest data, the U.S. currency’s share in reserves climbed to nearly 46 percent in 2017, up from over 40 percent the previous year.

Considering the size of Russia’s Treasury holdings, its move hardly made a dent in the $14.9 trillion Treasuries market. A bigger question is whether China — which owned $1.18 trillion of U.S. debt as of April 30 — will follow its neighbor’s lead.

“China could do the same if the trade war gets too bad,” Miklashevsky said. “That tool has been used before. In Russia, it’s more about keeping the money safe from sanctions because they need it for a rainy day.”


Bloomberg. 2018-06-21. China’s U.S. Treasuries Holdings Fell $5.8 Billion in April

– Overall foreign ownership declined to $6.17 trillion

– Japan’s tally dropped to $1.03 trillion, lowest since 2011

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China remained the largest foreign owner of Treasuries in April even with a slight drop in holdings, as the Asian nation’s appetite for U.S. government debt shows few signs of waning amid growing tensions over trade.

China’s holdings of U.S. bonds, bills and notes decreased by $5.8 billion to $1.18 trillion in April, according to Treasury Department data released in Washington on Friday. The second-biggest foreign holder, Japan, saw its Treasuries drop by $12.3 billion to $1.03 trillion, the lowest since 2011. Overall, foreign ownership of Treasuries receded in April, falling to $6.17 trillion.

While investors grew jittery in March that Beijing would scale back purchases of Treasuries to retaliate against the U.S. for new tariffs, China has shown little interest in disrupting financial markets over trade. The Asian nation has instead pledged to impose levies of its own on American goods in response to President Donald Trump’s plan to slap tariffs on at least $50 billion of Chinese imports starting next month.

“So far, we don’t see any evidence that China’s using its Treasuries as part of the trade negotiations,” said Zach Pandl, co-head of global FX strategy at Goldman Sachs. “China continues to be a regular and reliable purchaser of Treasuries when its reserve assets are rising, and that remains the case today.”

Japan’s holdings dropped as expensive hedging costs continue to sour them on U.S. debt. For buyers in Japan who use swaps to protect against currency swings, the yield on 10-year Treasuries is a mere 0.38 percent. That compares with the 2.92 percent yield available to those purchasing U.S. 10-year notes unhedged.

The yuan has depreciated about 1 percent against the dollar over the past month amid a broad decline in emerging-market currencies. The nation’s stockpile of foreign-exchange reserves fell for a second straight month in May, to $3.11 trillion, as a weaker exchange rate impacted the valuation of the dollar-denominated stockpile.