Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Stati Uniti, Unione Europea

Enclave liberal occidentale. L’inflazione disintegra lo obbligazionario. 15,000 miliardi in fumo.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-09-13.

2022-09-13__ Buoni del tesoro 001

«Double-digit losses have been the norm for fixed-income investors in 2022»

«Le perdite a due cifre sono state la norma per gli investitori a reddito fisso nel 2022»

«Bear market leaves bond investors with few places to hide»

«Il mercato in rosso lascia agli investitori obbligazionari pochi posti dove nascondersi»

* * * * * * *

Il mercato degli orsi lascia agli investitori obbligazionari pochi posti dove nascondersi. Gli investitori a reddito fisso hanno accumulato perdite a due cifre. I Treasury fanno peggio del debito societario e cartolarizzato.

Sono stati 12 mesi difficili per gli investitori obbligazionari globali, culminati con la caduta in un raro mercato orso. E ci sono pochi segnali di una tregua a breve. Le perdite a due cifre sono state la norma per gli investitori a reddito fisso nel 2022, sia che si tratti della durata delle obbligazioni, del tipo di debito o del settore dell’emittente. Potrebbero esserci altri ribassi all’orizzonte, dato che le banche centrali continuano ad adoperarsi per domare l’inflazione più alta degli ultimi decenni.

Ci sarà ancora da soffrire. La Fed, in particolare, è molto impegnata a dare priorità all’inflazione piuttosto che preoccuparsi della recessione.

I Treasury a livello globale hanno registrato una performance peggiore rispetto alle obbligazioni societarie e ai titoli di debito cartolarizzati dall’inizio del 2021. I titoli di Stato statunitensi sono stati sotto pressione negli ultimi tempi, in quanto la Federal Reserve ha intrapreso la sua campagna di inasprimento più aggressiva dagli anni ’80 e ha deciso di continuare ad aumentare i tassi per riportare l’inflazione al suo obiettivo del 2%.

Il debito pubblico è stato il più colpito, dato che un anno fa una parte consistente del mercato offriva rendimenti negativi. Lo stock di titoli con rendimenti inferiori allo zero superava allora i 15,000 miliardi di dollari, con gli investitori che pagavano per detenere bund tedeschi a 10 anni e obbligazioni giapponesi, oltre a titoli italiani a due anni. In quasi tutti i settori, le perdite del 2022 si sono aggiunte a quelle accumulate lo scorso anno. I titoli legati all’energia sono quelli che hanno subito i minori ribassi durante il crollo.

Le obbligazioni denominate in valute europee hanno sottoperformato nel 2022, dopo che la crisi energetica del continente ha aumentato le probabilità di una recessione. Le forti oscillazioni dei mercati valutari, guidate dall’inflazione più alta degli ultimi decenni in molte nazioni, hanno aggravato le perdite per gli investitori che seguono un portafoglio in dollari. Nemmeno le obbligazioni a più breve scadenza sono state risparmiate, anche se le loro perdite su base annua, pari a quasi il 10%, sono ben al di sotto del calo di quasi il 30% registrato dalle obbligazioni con scadenza superiore ai 10 anni.

* * * * * * *

«Bear market leaves bond investors with few places to hide. Fixed-income investors have racked up double-digit losses. Treasuries fare worse than corporate and securitized debt»

«It’s been a harrowing 12 months for global bond investors, culminating in a fall into a rare bear market. And there are few signs of a reprieve soon. Double-digit losses have been the norm for fixed-income investors in 2022, whether it be by bond duration, type of debt or industry of issuer. More declines may be on the horizon as central banks press on with efforts to tame the highest inflation in decades.»

«There is still some pain to come. The Fed, in particular, is very committed to prioritizing inflation as opposed to being concerned about recession»

«Treasuries globally have performed worse than corporate bonds and securitized debt securities since early 2021. US government bonds have been under pressure of late as the Federal Reserve embarked on its most aggressive tightening campaign since the 1980s, and resolved to continue raising rates to bring inflation back to its 2% target»

«Government debt has been the worst hit, given a sizable chunk of the market was offering negative yields a year ago. The stockpile of notes with sub-zero yields exceeded $15 trillion then, with investors paying to hold 10-year German bunds and Japanese bonds, along with two-year Italian securities. Across almost all sectors, losses in 2022 have come on top of those racked up last year. Energy-related bonds have suffered the smallest declines during the slump»

«Bonds denominated in European currencies have underperformed in 2022, after the continent’s energy crisis increased the odds of a recession. Large swings in currency markets, driven by the highest inflation in decades in many nations, have compounded losses for investors tracking a dollar portfolio. Even shorter-duration bonds haven’t been spared, although their year-to-date losses of close to 10% are far below the near 30% drop for notes with maturities of above 10 years»

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Bear Market Leaves Bond Investors With Few Places to Hide

– Fixed-income investors have racked up double-digit losses

– Treasuries fare worse than corporate and securitized debt

* * * * * * *

It’s been a harrowing 12 months for global bond investors, culminating in a fall into a rare bear market. And there are few signs of a reprieve soon. 

Double-digit losses have been the norm for fixed-income investors in 2022, whether it be by bond duration, type of debt or industry of issuer. More declines may be on the horizon as central banks press on with efforts to tame the highest inflation in decades.

“There is still some pain to come,” said Pauline Chrystal, a portfolio manager at Kapstream Capital in Sydney. “The Fed, in particular, is very committed to prioritizing inflation as opposed to being concerned about recession.”

Here is a look at how losses have been shared out across the different debt classes: 

Treasuries globally have performed worse than corporate bonds and securitized debt securities since early 2021. US government bonds have been under pressure of late as the Federal Reserve embarked on its most aggressive tightening campaign since the 1980s, and resolved to continue raising rates to bring inflation back to its 2% target.

Government debt has been the worst hit, given a sizable chunk of the market was offering negative yields a year ago. The stockpile of notes with sub-zero yields exceeded $15 trillion then, with investors paying to hold 10-year German bunds and Japanese bonds, along with two-year Italian securities. 

Across almost all sectors, losses in 2022 have come on top of those racked up last year. Energy-related bonds have suffered the smallest declines during the slump. 

                         Europe Worst

Bonds denominated in European currencies have underperformed in 2022, after the continent’s energy crisis increased the odds of a recession. Large swings in currency markets, driven by the highest inflation in decades in many nations, have compounded losses for investors tracking a dollar portfolio.  

Even shorter-duration bonds haven’t been spared, although their year-to-date losses of close to 10% are far below the near 30% drop for notes with maturities of above 10 years.

High-yield bonds have lost less globally than their investment-grade peers since early 2021. This suggests that investors aren’t pricing in a deep recession, and the notes offer some value as a buffer against rising benchmark rates.

The global increase in borrowing costs has whipsawed debt markets, with volatility soaring to levels last seen in July 2020. With central banks yet to declare victory in the battle against inflation, bond investors may have to gear up for more turbulence ahead.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Finanza e Sistema Bancario

Wien Energy. Ha un buco finanziario di oltre 6 miliardi di euro. Vicina al fallimento.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-09-05.

2022-0831__ Viener Energy 001

«6 Milliarden! Finanzloch bei Wien Energie noch viel größer»

«6 miliardi! Il buco finanziario di Wien Energie è ancora più grande»

«6 billion! Financial hole at Wien Energie even much larger»

* * * * * * *

In calce si riporta anche la versione inglese.

* * * * * * *

6 miliardi! Il buco finanziario di Wien Energie è ancora più grande

* * * * * * *

La crisi energetica sta mettendo Wien Energie in emergenza finanziaria, con 1.7 miliardi di euro in gioco. Ora anche il governo federale potrebbe dover intervenire.

Una bomba esplosiva è scoppiata nel settore dell’energia: Wien Energie è scivolata nelle turbolenze a causa dell’immensa inflazione sul mercato dell’elettricità, deve depositare circa 1.7 miliardi di euro in garanzia – e a quanto pare non può farlo. I termini insolvenza e fallimento vengono evitati, ma viene confermata la sofferenza finanziaria. Perché? Le società energetiche possono acquistare l’energia ora a un prezzo elevato o acquistarla a un prezzo più basso per il futuro come i cosiddetti futures, per i quali, tuttavia, è necessaria la già citata garanzia.

L’azienda stessa nega di essere insolvente; ha il miglior rating di credito, dicono. È possibile, tuttavia, che ora il governo federale, e quindi tutti noi, debba intervenire per salvarlo, riporta il Morgenjournal di Ö1. In questo caso, però, tutte le altre possibilità devono essere state esaurite in precedenza, l’azienda deve essere scivolata nella situazione di emergenza a causa della crisi energetica e non devono esserci né bonus per i dirigenti né distribuzione degli utili, secondo Ö1.

Wien Energie effettua transazioni commerciali sulle borse dell’energia al fine di garantire le forniture ai propri clienti. In questo modo, la società – come tutti i partecipanti alla borsa – deve depositare una garanzia. A causa dell’ulteriore esplosione dei prezzi dell’elettricità in tutta Europa venerdì scorso, questi titoli richiesti sono aumentati inaspettatamente. I titoli saranno restituiti non appena le operazioni di trading saranno state regolate, si giustifica Wien Energie.

L’imminente fallimento e l’insolvenza di Wien Energie, secondo quanto riportato dai media, è uno scandalo di cui il sindaco di SPÖ Ludwig è pienamente responsabile. Se è vero che la città di Vienna ha iniettato denaro nell’azienda di proprietà comunale in passato senza informare il consiglio comunale, allora questo avrà conseguenze di vasta portata, si infuria il leader dell’FPÖ viennese Dominik Nepp.

* * * * * * *

6 Milliarden! Finanzloch bei Wien Energie noch viel größer

* * * * * * *


Die Energiekrise bringt Wien Energie in eine finanzielle Notlage, es geht um 1,7 Milliarden Euro. Nun könnte sogar der Bund einspringen müssen.

Am Energiesektor platzte eine brisante Bombe: Wien Energie schlitterte durch die immense Teuerung am Strommarkt in Turbulenzen, muss rund 1,7 Milliarden Euro an Sicherheiten hinterlegen – und kann das offenbar nicht. Die Begriffe Insolvenz und Pleite vermeidet man, finanzielle Nöte sind aber bestätigt. Warum? Energiekonzerne können entweder jetzt Energie teuer kaufen oder aber als sogenannte “Futures” günstiger für die Zukunft, wofür es aber die genannten Sicherheiten braucht.

Das Unternehmen selbst dementiert, dass es insolvent sei, es verfüge über “beste Bonität”, heißt es. Möglich, dass nun aber der Bund und damit wir alle zur “Rettung” einspringen müssen, berichtet das Ö1-“Morgenjournal”. Dann aber müssen vorher alle anderen Möglichkeiten ausgeschöpft worden sein, das Unternehmen aufgrund der Energiekrise in die Notlage geschlittert sein, es darf dann keine Boni für die Chefs geben und auch keine Gewinnausschüttungen, so Ö1.

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“Um Versorgung der Kund*innen sicherzustellen, führt Wien Energie Handelsgeschäfte an Energiebörsen durch. Dabei muss das Unternehmen – wie alle Börsenteilnehmer – Sicherheitsleistungen hinterlegen. Aufgrund des am Freitag abermals europaweit explodierten Strompreises steigen diese erforderlichen Sicherheitsleistungen unvorhergesehen an. Die Sicherheiten kommen zurück, sobald die Handelsgeschäfte abgewickelt werden”, rechtfertigt sich indes Wien Energie.

“Die laut Medienberichten bevorstehende Pleite und Zahlungsunfähigkeit der Wien Energie ist ein Skandal, für den SPÖ-Bürgermeister Ludwig die volle Verantwortung trägt. Wenn es tatsächlich stimmt, dass die Stadt Wien schon in der Vergangenheit dem stadteigenen Unternehmen Geld zugeschossen hat, ohne den Gemeinderat darüber zu informieren, dann wird das weitreichende Folgen haben”, wettert indes der Wiener FPÖ-Chef Dominik Nepp.

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6 billion! Financial hole at Wien Energie even much larger

The energy crisis brings Wien Energie into a financial emergency, it concerns 1.7 billion euro. Now even the federal government might have to step in.

An explosive bombshell burst in the energy sector: Wien Energie slid into turmoil due to the immense inflation on the electricity market, has to deposit around 1.7 billion euros in collateral – and is apparently unable to do so. The terms insolvency and bankruptcy are avoided, but financial distress is confirmed. Why? Energy companies can either buy energy now at a high price or buy it cheaper for the future in the form of so-called futures, for which, however, they need the aforementioned collateral.

The company itself denies that it is insolvent, it has best credit rating, they say. It is possible, however, that the federal government and thus all of us will have to step in to rescue the company, reports Ö1’s Morgenjournal. But then all other possibilities must have been exhausted beforehand, the company must have slid into the emergency situation due to the energy crisis, there must then be no bonuses for the bosses and also no profit distributions, according to Ö1.

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In order to ensure supply to customers, Wien Energie conducts trading transactions on energy exchanges. In doing so, the company – like all exchange participants – has to deposit collateral. Due to the renewed European-wide explosion in electricity prices on Friday, these required securities have risen unexpectedly. The securities will be returned as soon as the trading transactions are settled, Wien Energie justifies itself.

The impending bankruptcy and insolvency of Wien Energie, according to media reports, is a scandal for which SPÖ Mayor Ludwig bears full responsibility. If it is indeed true that the city of Vienna has injected money into the city-owned company in the past without informing the municipal council, then this will have far-reaching consequences, rages the Viennese FPÖ leader Dominik Nepp.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Cina, Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Russia

Russia. Acquisterà 70 miliardi Usd in Yuan e valute amiche.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-09-04.

Kremlin 001

La Russia pensa di acquistare 70 miliardi di dollari in yuan e valuta amica

1 settembre (Reuters) – La Russia sta valutando un piano per acquistare quest’anno fino a 70 miliardi di dollari in yuan e altre valute amiche per frenare l’impennata del rublo, ha riferito giovedì Bloomberg News.

Nella nuova situazione, accumulare riserve di valuta estera liquide per future crisi è estremamente difficile e non conveniente, si legge nel testo di una proposta preparata per una riunione di funzionari del governo e della banca centrale russa, ha riferito Bloomberg, citando persone che hanno familiarità con le deliberazioni.

La banca centrale russa non ha risposto immediatamente a una richiesta di commento della Reuters.

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Russia Mulls Buying $70 Billion in Yuan, ‘Friendly’ FX

Sept 1 (Reuters) – Russia is considering a plan to buy as much as $70 billion in yuan and other “friendly” currencies this year to slow the rouble’s surge, Bloomberg News reported on Thursday.

“In the new situation, accumulating liquid foreign exchange reserves for future crises is extremely difficult and not expedient,” said the text of a proposal prepared for a meeting of Russian government and central bank officials, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the deliberations.

Russia’s central bank did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Stati Uniti

Usa. I Gop avversano gli Esg. Iraconda reazione dei liberal democratici.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-08-30.

Inflazione 002

In un sistema economico e finanziario oppresso dalla inflazione tutti gli investimenti che rendono meno sono destinati a chiudere le attività.

I fondi di investimento sono i più colpiti, ed infatti molti sono falliti.

I fondi Esg patrocinano investimenti ambientali, sociali e di governance, tra i quali massimamente il cambiamento climatico, dato come assioma indiscutibile. È un problema ideologico.

La stizzosa, iraconda reazione dei liberal democratici è sequenziale.

Ma l’articolo accluso è un compendio superbo della ideologia democratica espressa secondo un stile paleo – vetero liberal, quale non si leggeva da molto tempo.

Poi, mideterm si avvicina.

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I professionisti dell’investimento avvertono che una campagna repubblicana che cerca di cancellare l’ESG dalla mappa finanziaria mette a rischio i risparmi degli americani comuni che si trovano nel fuoco incrociato della politica. Gli investimenti ambientali, sociali e di governance sono ora sotto attacco nella più grande economia del mondo. Questa settimana il governatore della Florida Ron DeSantis ha vietato ai fondi pensione statali di effettuare lo screening dei rischi ESG. Il Texas sta cercando di isolare le società finanziarie che ritiene ostili all’industria dei combustibili fossili. In Arizona, il candidato repubblicano al Senato Blake Masters ha definito i punteggi ESG una minaccia esistenziale per l’America. Leggendo tra le righe, DeSantis sta dicendo che il cambiamento climatico è una questione non pecuniaria che mette a rischio i risparmi a lungo termine dei pensionati della Florida. I fondi azionari sostenibili statunitensi a grande capitalizzazione focalizzati sulla crescita sono aumentati a un tasso medio annuo del 14% nel periodo, rispetto all’11% dei fondi convenzionali non ESG.

L’idea che l’ESG sia una cospirazione di sinistra che si sta infiltrando nella vita aziendale degli Stati Uniti è difficile da conciliare con il fatto che il 69% delle principali aziende del Paese è gestito da dirigenti che si identificano come repubblicani. All’inizio di questo mese, il Controller della città di New York Brad Lander ha accusato i repubblicani di difendere gli interessi delle compagnie petrolifere in una guerra di distrazione politica.

* * * * * * *

«GOP fury over ESG triggers backlash with us pensions at risk»

«Investment professionals are warning that a Republican campaign seeking to wipe ESG off the financial map puts at risk the savings of ordinary Americans caught in the political crossfire. Environmental, social and governance investing is now under attack in the world’s largest economy. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis this week banned state pension funds from screening for ESG risks. Texas is seeking to isolate financial firms it says are hostile toward the fossil-fuel industry. And in Arizona, Republican Senate nominee Blake Masters has characterized ESG scores as an existential threat to America. “Reading between the lines, DeSantis is ultimately saying that climate change is a non-pecuniary issue putting the long-term savings of Florida pensioners at risk. US large-cap sustainable equity funds focused on growth rose at an average annual rate of 14% in the period, compared with 11% for conventional non-ESG funds»

«It is pension money that runs the most significant financial risk if they don’t take ESG into account. The notion that ESG is a left-wing conspiracy infiltrating US corporate life also is hard to square with the fact that 69% of major companies in the country are run by executives who identify as Republicans. New York City Comptroller Brad Lander earlier this month accused Republicans of defending the interests of oil companies in a war of political distraction.»

* * * * * * *


GOP Fury Over ESG Triggers Backlash With US Pensions at Risk

Investment professionals are warning that a Republican campaign seeking to wipe ESG off the financial map puts at risk the savings of ordinary Americans caught in the political crossfire.

Environmental, social and governance investing is now under attack in the world’s largest economy. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis this week banned state pension funds from screening for ESG risks. Texas is seeking to isolate financial firms it says are hostile toward the fossil-fuel industry. And in Arizona, Republican Senate nominee Blake Masters has characterized ESG scores as an existential threat to America.

The development represents a rapid escalation of aggression toward an investing form that few people even knew existed five years ago. But the finance industry, which has embraced ever more ESG products promising to address issues like climate change and inequality, is starting to strike back, arguing that Republican policies put the financial security of US savers in serious jeopardy.

“DeSantis’s decision is clearly tied to politics because it’s certainly not in the best interest of pension fund beneficiaries,” according to Bryan McGannon, director of policy and programs at US SIF, a Washington-based group that supports sustainable investment businesses. “Reading between the lines, DeSantis is ultimately saying that climate change is a non-pecuniary issue putting the long-term savings of Florida pensioners at risk. That just doesn’t make sense.”

ESG is still a relatively new investing form, and the acronym itself has only existed for less than two decades. But over the past five years, it has outperformed. US large-cap sustainable equity funds focused on growth rose at an average annual rate of 14% in the period, compared with 11% for conventional non-ESG funds, according to data provided by Morningstar Inc. ESG funds also did better when looking at global and European data from the researcher.

A study published in May by the European Securities and Markets Authority that looked at 6,528 so-called UCITS funds found that ESG generally improves returns and cuts client costs over time. ESMA found that funds focusing on the “S” in ESG tended to perform best.

Ignoring ESG may even open the door to legal liability.

“Existing US securities laws require registrants to disclose any risks that are reasonably likely to have a material impact on their business, results of operation, or financial condition,” said Ken Rivlin, head of the international environmental law group at Allen & Overy.  “Failure to disclose such material risks—including climate-related risks, if they’re material—could create a basis for liability.”

DeSantis, who’s pegged as a possible contender for the 2024 presidential election, has promised voters to “protect” them from ESG, which he has claimed threatens their economic freedom. On Tuesday, he characterized ESG as a “perversion” of financial investing.

But evidence exists that shows US voters aren’t as hostile toward efforts to fight climate change as DeSantis suggests. A Harris Poll of US savers conducted on behalf of Nuveen last year found that more than two-thirds of people asked want their employer to offer pension plans that incorporate ESG factors.

What’s more, a study by Enersection, a Houston-based data visualization firm,  shows that Republican districts are well ahead of their Democratic counterparts in targeting clean-energy projects.  And a  data analysis conducted by Bloomberg Opinion and Enersection of where renewable-energy technology gets deployed in the US shows the vast majority is in Republican-led congressional districts.

Sasja Beslik, a sustainable finance veteran who’s now the chief investment officer at NextGen ESG, described the decision by DeSantis as “tragic.”

It shows that the governor of Florida and others who share his view “don’t understand that long-term management of pension investments naturally includes material ESG issues that can impact returns,” Beslik said.

“It is pension money that runs the most significant financial risk if they don’t take ESG into account,” he said. “ESG—when done for real—is first and foremost a risk-management tool. Politicians run for four years, maybe eight. But pension money is very long term.”

The notion that ESG is a left-wing conspiracy infiltrating US corporate life also is hard to square with the fact that 69% of major companies in the country are run by executives who identify as Republicans, according to University of Oxford’s Said Business School professor Robert Eccles, who cited a paper by professors Vyacheslav Fos of Boston College, Elisabeth Kempf of Harvard Business School, and Margarita Tsoutsoura of Washington University in St. Louis.

Eccles, who’s a proponent of sustainable investing, has suggested it may be necessary to jettison the ESG label now that it’s become a target for Republicans. While the principles behind ESG are sound, it would be better—given the political climate—to change the terminology, he said.

Whatever the label, ignoring ESG risks such as a hotter planet comes at a physical cost, said Sonali Siriwardena, partner and global head of ESG at law firm Simmons & Simmons. The claim that ESG hurts returns is “short-termism at play,” she said.

“The science is now clear and we’re seeing the negative effects of climate change far earlier than predicted,” Siriwardena said.

Florida is perhaps uniquely vulnerable with a coastline exceeding 8,000 miles (12,900 kilometers). DeSantis has even acknowledged the threat, and late last year recommended more than $1.5 billion of environmental programs be earmarked to help protect the state from coastal flooding. But that may be just a tenth the amount needed given the scale of the environmental threat facing the state, according to Jesse Keenan, a professor at Tulane University in New Orleans who focuses on climate-change adaptation.

The United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that the planet might be on track for temperature increases that may be twice the limit set out in the Paris climate accord. That would result in a climate catastrophe with the potential to render much of the planet uninhabitable, with coastal areas particularly at risk.

New York City Comptroller Brad Lander earlier this month accused Republicans of defending the interests of oil companies in a “war of political distraction.”

“Being a comptroller, being a fiduciary of pension obligations for hundreds of thousands of people, you keep an eye on the long term, you pay attention to the science,” Lander said. “You make the wisest, long-term and responsible decisions you can.”

In the final months of Donald Trump’s presidency, his Department of Labor moved to adjust the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (ERISA) to require those overseeing pension and 401(k) plans to always put economic interests ahead of so-called non-pecuniary goals. It was seen as a direct attack on ESG and green investing. In January 2021, President Joe Biden included the DOL’s “Financial Factors in Selecting Plan Investments” on his list of Trump climate-related agency actions that are up for review.

“We’re still waiting for the Biden administration to officially reverse the Trump proposal,” McGannon said. As for Florida, the governor’s pronouncement will only effect state-run pension funds and not company-run retirement plans, he said.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Unione Europea

Blocco europeo. Domestic producer prices. – Eurostat. Ma di cosa blattera la gente

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-08-29.

2022-08-23_ Europe Domestic producer prices - total industry 001

«The industrial domestic output price index measures the average price development of all goods and related services resulting from the activity of the industry sector and sold on the domestic market. The domestic output price index shows the monthly development of transaction prices of economic activities. The domestic market is defined as customers resident in the same national territory as the observation unit. Data are compiled according to the Statistical classification of economic activities in the European Community, (NACE Rev. 2, Eurostat). Industrial producer prices are compiled as a “fixed base year Laspeyres type price-index”. The current base year is 2015 (Index 2015 =100). Indexes, as well as both growth rates with respect to the previous month (M/M-1) and with respect to the corresponding month of the previous year (M/M-12) are presented in raw form.» [data.europa.eu]

Nella Tabella riportata i dati sono espressi come M/M-12.

* * *

A giugno 2022 i prezzi di produzione sono aumentati del 35.8% nella eurozona e del 36.1% nella Unione europea a 27 stati membri.

Tranne Malta, 9.2%, e la Svizzera, 7.9%, le altre nazioni si attestano in termini medi attorno al 30%.

Questi valori inflattivi sono insostenibili ed obbligano la banca centrale a continuare a soccorrere i debiti pubblici lasciando l’inflazione libera di flagellare il blocco.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Unione Europea

Blocco europeo. Soccombe alla crisi alimentata dalla inflazione.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-08-25.

2022-08-25__ As Ukraine war drags on, Europe's economy succumbs to crisis 001

Il problema è di una semplicità elementare. In un regime inflattivo tutti i lavori che rendono meno del tasso di inflazione sono in perdita. La conseguenza è altrettanto semplice. Queste attività sono obbligate a chiudere, talora a fallire. Da ciò derivano licenziamenti e diminuzione del gettito fiscale, nonché riduzione dei consumi. Si attua una perversa spirale recessiva.

2022-08-25__ As Ukraine war drags on, Europe's economy succumbs to crisis 002

* * * * * * *

Mentre la guerra in Ucraina si trascina, l’economia europea cede alla crisi. Recessione quasi certa. Germania e Italia tra le più colpite. Il portafoglio dei consumatori prosciugato da un’inflazione record.

Un’euforia di spesa post-pandemia, sostenuta da una copiosa spesa pubblica, era destinata a trainare l’economia e ad aiutare le famiglie affaticate a ritrovare un senso di normalità dopo due anni terribili. Ma tutto è cambiato il 24 febbraio con l’invasione dell’Ucraina da parte della Russia. La normalità è sparita e la crisi è diventata permanente. La recessione è ormai quasi certa, l’inflazione si avvicina a due cifre e l’inverno, con l’incombente carenza di energia, si avvicina rapidamente. Per quanto fosche, queste prospettive sono destinate a peggiorare prima di qualsiasi miglioramento significativo, fino al 2023.

Il cambiamento è drammatico. Un anno fa la maggior parte dei previsori prevedeva per il 2022 una crescita economica vicina al 5%. Ora una recessione invernale sta diventando l’ipotesi di base. Sia le famiglie che le imprese stanno soffrendo perché le conseguenze della guerra – prezzi elevati di cibo ed energia – sono ora esacerbate da una siccità devastante e dai bassi livelli dei fiumi che limitano i trasporti. Al 9%, l’inflazione nell’area dell’euro è a livelli che non si vedevano da mezzo secolo e sta intaccando il potere d’acquisto con la liquidità di riserva utilizzata per la benzina, il gas naturale e gli alimenti di base. A giugno, il volume delle vendite al dettaglio è sceso di quasi il 4% rispetto all’anno precedente, con un calo del 9% in Germania.

Ma i settori ad alta intensità energetica stanno già soffrendo. Quasi la metà della capacità di fusione di alluminio e zinco in Europa è già fuori uso, mentre gran parte della produzione di fertilizzanti, che si basa sul gas naturale, è stata chiusa. Ma i settori ad alta intensità energetica stanno già soffrendo. Quasi la metà della capacità di fusione dell’alluminio e dello zinco in Europa è già offline, mentre gran parte della produzione di fertilizzanti, che si basa sul gas naturale, è stata chiusa.

È probabile che questa sofferenza si intensifichi, soprattutto se la Russia taglierà ulteriormente le esportazioni di gas. Lo shock del gas oggi è molto più forte; è quasi il doppio dello shock che abbiamo avuto negli anni ’70 con il petrolio. Negli ultimi due anni abbiamo assistito a un aumento di 10-11 volte del prezzo spot del gas naturale in Europa. Per le imprese, questo significherà una riduzione della produzione, che si ripercuoterà ulteriormente sulla crescita, in particolare nell’industria.

La Federal Reserve statunitense ha aumentato rapidamente i tassi di interesse e ha fatto capire di essere disposta a rischiare persino una recessione per contenere la crescita dei prezzi. La Banca Centrale Europea, invece, ha aumentato i tassi solo una volta, tornando a zero, e si muoverà solo con cautela, consapevole del fatto che l’aumento del costo dei prestiti dei paesi altamente indebitati della zona euro, come Italia, Spagna e Grecia, potrebbe alimentare le preoccupazioni sulla loro capacità di continuare a pagare i debiti.

* * * * * * *

«As Ukraine war drags on, Europe’s economy succumbs to crisis. Recession almost certain. Germany and Italy among hardest hit. Consumers’ purse drained by record high inflation»

«A post-pandemic spending euphoria, supported by copious government spending was set to drive the economy and help fatigued households regain a sense of normality after two dreadful years. But all that changed on Feb. 24 with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Normality is gone and crisis has become permanent. A recession is now almost certain, inflation is nearing double digits and a winter with looming energy shortages is fast approaching. Though bleak, this outlook is still likely to get worse before any significant improvement well into 2023»

«The change is dramatic. A year ago most forecasters predicted 2022 economic growth near 5%. Now a winter recession is becoming the base case. Households and businesses are both suffering as the fallout of the war – high food and energy prices – is now exacerbated by a devastating drought and low river levels that constrain transport. At 9%, inflation in the euro area is at levels not seen in a half a century and it is sapping purchasing power with spare cash used up on petrol, natural gas and staple food. In June, retail sales volumes were down nearly 4% from a year earlier, led by a 9% drop recorded in Germany»

«But energy intensive sectors are already suffering. Close to half of Europe’s aluminium and zinc smelting capacity is already offline while much of fertilizer production, which relies on natural gas, has been shut. But energy intensive sectors are already suffering. Close to half of Europe’s aluminium and zinc smelting capacity is already offline while much of fertilizer production, which relies on natural gas, has been shut.»

«That pain is likely to intensify, especially if Russia cuts gas exports further. The gas shock today is much greater; it is almost double the shock that we had back in the 70s with oil. We’ve seen a 10 to 11 fold increase in the spot price of natural gas in Europe over the last two years. For businesses, it will mean lower production, which eats further into growth, particularly in industry»

«U.S. Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates quickly and has made clear it is willing to risk even a recession to tame price growth. By contrast, the European Central Bank has only increased rates once, back to zero, and will move only cautiously, mindful that raising the borrowing cost of highly indebted euro zone nations, such as Italy, Spain and Greece could fuel worries about the their ability to keep paying their debts»

* * * * * * *


As Ukraine war drags on, Europe’s economy succumbs to crisis

– Recession almost certain

– Germany and Italy among hardest hit

– Consumers’ purse drained by record high inflation

– Strong labour market offers hope of short recession

– Energy transition may boost resilience in long run

* * * * * * *

Frankfurt, Aug 23 (Reuters) – It was meant to be Europe’s stellar year.

A post-pandemic spending euphoria, supported by copious government spending was set to drive the economy and help fatigued households regain a sense of normality after two dreadful years.

But all that changed on Feb. 24 with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Normality is gone and crisis has become permanent.

A recession is now almost certain, inflation is nearing double digits and a winter with looming energy shortages is fast approaching.

Though bleak, this outlook is still likely to get worse before any significant improvement well into 2023.

“Crisis is the new normal,” says the Alexandre Bompard, the Chief Executive of retailer Carrefour. “What we have been used to in the last decades – low inflation, international trade – it’s over,” he told investors.

The change is dramatic. A year ago most forecasters predicted 2022 economic growth near 5%. Now a winter recession is becoming the base case.

Households and businesses are both suffering as the fallout of the war – high food and energy prices – is now exacerbated by a devastating drought and low river levels that constrain transport.

At 9%, inflation in the euro area is at levels not seen in a half a century and it is sapping purchasing power with spare cash used up on petrol, natural gas and staple food.

Retail sales are already plunging, months before the heating season starts and shoppers are scaling down their buys. In June, retail sales volumes were down nearly 4% from a year earlier, led by a 9% drop recorded in Germany.

Consumers turn to discount chains and give up high end products, switching to discount brands. They have also started to skip certain purchases.

“Life is becoming more expensive and consumers are reluctant to consume,” Robert Gentz, the co-CEO of German retailer Zalando, told reporters.

Businesses have so far coped well thanks to superb pricing power due to persistent supply constraints. But energy intensive sectors are already suffering.

Close to half of Europe’s aluminium and zinc smelting capacity is already offline while much of fertilizer production, which relies on natural gas, has been shut.

Tourism has been the rare bright spot with people looking to spend some of accumulated savings and enjoy their first care-free summer since 2019.

But even the travel sector is hamstrung by capacity and labour shortages as workers laid off during the pandemic were reluctant to return.

Key airports, such as Frankfurt and London Heathrow were forced to cap flights simply because they lacked the staff to process passengers. At Amsterdam’s Schiphol, waiting times could stretch to four or five hours this summer.

Airlines also could not cope. Germany’s Lufthansa had to publish an apology to customers for the chaos, admitting that it was unlikely to ease anytime soon.

                         RECESSION LOOMS

That pain is likely to intensify, especially if Russia cuts gas exports further.

“The gas shock today is much greater; it is almost double the shock that we had back in the 70s with oil,” Caroline Bain at Capital Economics said. “We’ve seen a 10 to 11 fold increase in the spot price of natural gas in Europe over the last two years.”

While the EU has unveiled plans to accelerate its transition to renewable energy and wean the bloc off Russian gas by 2027, making it more resilient in the long run, supply shortages are forcing it seek a 15% cut in gas consumption this year. But energy independence comes at a cost.

For ordinary people it will mean colder homes and offices in the short run. Germany for instance wants public spaces heated only to 19 degrees Celsius this winter compared with around 22 degrees previously.

Further out, it will mean higher energy costs and thus inflation as the bloc must give up its biggest and cheapest energy supplies.

For businesses, it will mean lower production, which eats further into growth, particularly in industry.

Wholesale gas prices in Germany, the bloc’s biggest economy, are up five-fold in a year but consumers are protected by long term contracts, so the impact so far has been far smaller.

Still, they will have to pay a government mandated levy and once contracts roll over, prices will soar, suggesting the impact will just come with a delay, putting persistent upward pressure on inflation.

That is why many if not most economists see Germany and Italy, Europe’s no. 1 and no. 4 economies with heavy reliance on gas, entering a recession soon.

While a recession in the United States is also likely, its origin will be quite different.

                         SILVER LINING

Struggling with a red-hot labour market and rapid wage growth, the U.S. Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates quickly and has made clear it is willing to risk even a recession to tame price growth.

By contrast, the European Central Bank has only increased rates once, back to zero, and will move only cautiously, mindful that raising the borrowing cost of highly indebted euro zone nations, such as Italy, Spain and Greece could fuel worries about the their ability to keep paying their debts.

But Europe will go into a recession with some strengths.

Employment is record high and firms have struggled with growing labour scarcity for years.

This suggests that companies will be keen to hang onto workers, especially since they head for the downturn with relatively healthy margins.

This could then sustain purchasing power, pointing to a relatively shallow recession with only a modest uptick in what is now a record low jobless rate.

“We see continued acute shortages of labour, historically low unemployment and a high number of vacancies,” ECB board member Isabel Schnabel told Reuters earlier. “This probably implies that even if we enter a downturn, firms may be quite reluctant to shed workers on a broad scale.”

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Finanza e Sistema Bancario

Norway’s Wealth Fund. Ha perso 174 miliardi USD nel primo semestre.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-08-18.

Gargoyle 002. Base Notre Dame Paris

Il fondo sovrano norvegese da 1,300 miliardi di dollari, il più grande al mondo, ha registrato la sua più grande perdita dai tempi della pandemia, a causa dei rialzi dei tassi, dell’inflazione in aumento e dell’invasione dell’Ucraina da parte della Russia. Il fondo con sede a Oslo ha perso un equivalente di 174 miliardi di dollari nei sei mesi fino a giugno, pari al 14.4%, ha dichiarato mercoledì. La perdita nel secondo trimestre è stata del 10%, la più grande dopo la perdita record del 14.6% registrata nel primo trimestre del 2020. L’amministratore delegato Nicolai Tangen ha dichiarato ai legislatori a maggio che una maggiore incertezza e un maggiore rischio sono la nuova normalità per il più grande proprietario di società quotate in borsa al mondo, che ora probabilmente si trova ad affrontare i maggiori cambiamenti degli ultimi 30 anni a causa delle conseguenze geopolitiche della guerra in Ucraina. Il mercato è stato caratterizzato dall’aumento dei tassi di interesse, dall’inflazione elevata e dalla guerra in Europa, ha dichiarato Tangen nel comunicato. I titoli tecnologici hanno fatto particolarmente male, con un rendimento del -28%.

Nel primo semestre, il fondo ha perso il 17% sulle azioni, dove ha la maggior parte dei suoi investimenti, e ha perso il 9.3% sul reddito fisso. Il 27 febbraio la Norvegia ha deciso di eliminare le attività russe dal fondo in risposta all’invasione dell’Ucraina da parte del Paese, ma ha incontrato problemi nell’attuazione della decisione dopo che la Russia ha vietato agli stranieri di eseguire operazioni sui suoi mercati azionari.

* * * * * * *

«Norway’s $1.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund, the world’s biggest, posted its biggest loss since the pandemic as rate hikes, surging inflation and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine spurred volatility. The Oslo-based fund lost an equivalent of $174 billion in the six months through June, or 14.4%, it said on Wednesday. The loss in the second quarter amounted to 10%, the investor’s biggest since its record loss of 14.6% in the first quarter of 2020. Chief Executive Nicolai Tangen told lawmakers in May that greater uncertainty and more risk is the new normal for the world’s biggest owner of publicly traded companies, and it now probably faces the greatest changes in 30 years due to the geopolitical consequences of the war in Ukraine. The market has been characterized by rising interest rates, high inflation, and war in Europe,” Tangen said in the statement. “Technology stocks have done particularly poorly with a return of -28%.»

«In the first half, the fund shed 17% on stocks, where it has the bulk of its investments, and lost 9.3% on fixed income. Norway decided on Feb. 27 to drop Russian assets from the fund in response to the country’s invasion of Ukraine, but ran into problems with implementing the decision after Russia banned foreigners from executing trades on its stock markets»

* * * * * * *


Norway’s Wealth Fund Lost $174 Billion in First Half

Norway’s $1.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund, the world’s biggest, posted its biggest loss since the pandemic as rate hikes, surging inflation and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine spurred volatility.

The Oslo-based fund lost an equivalent of $174 billion in the six months through June, or 14.4%, it said on Wednesday. The loss in the second quarter amounted to 10%, the investor’s biggest since its record loss of 14.6% in the first quarter of 2020.

Chief Executive Nicolai Tangen told lawmakers in May that greater uncertainty and more risk is the new normal for the world’s biggest owner of publicly traded companies, and it now probably faces the greatest changes in 30 years due to the geopolitical consequences of the war in Ukraine.

“The market has been characterized by rising interest rates, high inflation, and war in Europe,” Tangen said in the statement. “Technology stocks have done particularly poorly with a return of -28%.”

In the first half, the fund shed 17% on stocks, where it has the bulk of its investments, and lost 9.3% on fixed income. Energy sector was the only one with a positive return, of 13%, cushioning the blow thanks to sharp price increases for oil, gas and refined products.

Its unlisted real-estate holdings gained 7.1%, boosted by logistics, though they account for 3% of its investments.

Norway decided on Feb. 27 to drop Russian assets from the fund in response to the country’s invasion of Ukraine, but ran into problems with implementing the decision after Russia banned foreigners from executing trades on its stock markets. 

Norges Bank said in March that it will return with a recommendation on lifting a freeze on the fund’s investments in Russia once markets are functioning more normally, along with more detailed recommendations on carrying out the sale.

Created in the 1990s to invest Norway’s oil and gas revenues abroad, the fund has a portfolio of about 9,000 stocks, and delved into renewable infrastructure for the first time last year.

Overall, the fund’s total return was 1.14 percentage points higher than that of the benchmark against which it measures itself.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Cina, Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Stati Uniti

Cina. Cinque colossi chiedono il delisting dalla borsa di New York. 310 miliardi Usd.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-08-16.

denaro-in-fuga-001

I rapporti Usa-Cina si complicano dopo l’invasione dell’Ucraina da parte della Russia e la visita della speaker Usa Pelosi a Taiwan. PetroChina, China Life Insurance, Sinopec e Aluminum Corp. of China annunciano il delisting da Wall Street.

I rapporti Usa-Cina si complicano ulteriormente. Dopo la visita della speaker della Camera Usa, Nancy Pelosi, a Taiwan, l’isola che Pechino rivendica come propria dalla fine della Seconda guerra mondiale, un fatto che ha innescato intere giornate di raid militari attorno a Taipei, giovedì dagli Usa è trapelata la notizia che l’amministrazione Biden sta rivedendo i dazi su 370 miliardi di dollari di beni provenienti dalla Cina. Anche perché la Cina continua a sostenere la Russia dopo l’invasione dell’Ucraina a fine febbraio.

E oggi, venerdì, sono arrivate a Wall Street le richieste, separate, di delisting da parte di diversi colossi cinesi. Si tratta di PetroChina, China Life Insurance, Sinopec e Aluminum Corp. of China, la cui capitalizzazione complessiva si aggira attorno a 310 miliardi di dollari, circa la metà del valore di tutta Piazza Affari.

* * * * * * *

Cinque società statali cinesi, tra cui il gigante petrolifero Sinopec e la China Life Insurance, hanno dichiarato venerdì di voler uscire dal listino della Borsa di New York, in mezzo alle tensioni economiche e diplomatiche con gli Stati Uniti.

Le società, che comprendono anche Aluminium Corporation of China (Chalco), PetroChina e Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co, hanno dichiarato di voler richiedere il delisting delle loro American Depository Shares questo mese.

Le cinque società, che a maggio sono state segnalate dall’autorità di vigilanza statunitense per non aver rispettato gli standard di revisione contabile, manterranno le loro quotazioni sui mercati di Hong Kong e della Cina continentale.

Le società cinesi non hanno fatto alcun riferimento alla controversia sulla revisione contabile nelle dichiarazioni separate che illustrano le loro mosse, che arrivano in un momento di maggiore tensione dopo la visita della scorsa settimana a Taiwan del presidente della Camera dei Rappresentanti degli Stati Uniti, Nancy Pelosi.

La disputa sulla supervisione, che si trascina da oltre un decennio, ha raggiunto il culmine a dicembre, quando la Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) ha finalizzato le regole per vietare potenzialmente il commercio di società cinesi in base alla legge sulla responsabilità delle società estere (Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act). La Commissione ha dichiarato che 273 società erano a rischio.

La scorsa settimana Alibaba ha dichiarato che avrebbe convertito la sua quotazione secondaria di Hong Kong in una doppia quotazione primaria, il che, secondo gli analisti, potrebbe agevolare il gigante cinese dell’e-commerce a cambiare sede di quotazione primaria in futuro. Gli osservatori del mercato si sono divisi sul significato che le cancellazioni potrebbero avere per l’accordo di revisione, e alcuni hanno detto che si tratta di un cattivo segno.

La Cina sta inviando un messaggio che indica che la sua pazienza si sta esaurendo nelle trattative sulla revisione contabile. I gestori di fondi globali che detengono titoli cinesi quotati negli Stati Uniti si stanno spostando costantemente verso i loro omologhi negoziati a Hong Kong, anche se rimangono fiduciosi che la disputa sulla revisione contabile si risolva alla fine.

* * * * * * *

«Five Chinese state-owned companies, including oil giant Sinopec  and China Life Insurance, said on Friday they would delist from the New York Stock Exchange, amid economic and diplomatic tensions with the United States»

«The companies, which also include Aluminium Corporation of China (Chalco), PetroChina  and Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co, each said that they would apply to delist their American Depository Shares this month.»

«The five, which in May were flagged by the U.S. securities regulator as failing to meet its auditing standards, will keep their listings in Hong Kong and mainland Chinese markets.»

«There was no mention of the auditing dispute in separate statements by the Chinese companies outlining their moves, which come amid heightened tensions after last week’s visit to Taiwan by U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi»

«The oversight row, which has been simmering for more than a decade, came to a head in December when the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) finalized rules to potentially prohibit trading in Chinese companies under the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act. It said 273 companies were at risk»

«Alibaba said last week it would convert its Hong Kong secondary listing into a dual primary listing which analysts said could ease the way for the Chinese ecommerce giant to switch primary listing venues in the future.»

«Market-watchers were split over what the delistings might mean for the audit deal, with some saying it was a bad sign»

«China is sending a message that its patience is wearing thin in the audit talks»

«Global fund managers holding U.S.-listed Chinese stocks are steadily shifting towards their Hong Kong-traded peers, even as they remain hopeful the audit dispute will eventually be resolved»

* * * * * * *


Five Chinese state-owned companies to delist from NYSE amid U.S. tensions.

Shanghai/Hong Kong, Aug 12 (Reuters) – Five Chinese state-owned companies, including oil giant Sinopec  and China Life Insurance, said on Friday they would delist from the New York Stock Exchange, amid economic and diplomatic tensions with the United States.

The companies, which also include Aluminium Corporation of China (Chalco), PetroChina  and Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co, each said that they would apply to delist their American Depository Shares this month.

The five, which in May were flagged by the U.S. securities regulator as failing to meet its auditing standards, will keep their listings in Hong Kong and mainland Chinese markets.

Beijing and Washington are in talks to resolve a long-running audit dispute that could see Chinese companies banned from U.S. exchanges if they do not comply with U.S. rules.

Washington has long demanded complete access to the books of U.S.-listed Chinese companies, but Beijing bars foreign inspection of audit documents from local accounting firms, citing national security concerns.

There was no mention of the auditing dispute in separate statements by the Chinese companies outlining their moves, which come amid heightened tensions after last week’s visit to Taiwan by U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

“These companies have strictly complied with the rules and regulatory requirements of the U.S. capital market since their listing in the U.S. and made the delisting choice for their own business considerations,” the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) said in a statement.

The agency added that it would keep “communication open with relevant overseas regulatory agencies.”

The oversight row, which has been simmering for more than a decade, came to a head in December when the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) finalized rules to potentially prohibit trading in Chinese companies under the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act. It said 273 companies were at risk.

Some of China’s largest companies including Alibaba Group Holdings , J.D Com Inc and Baidu Inc are among them. Alibaba said last week it would convert its Hong Kong secondary listing into a dual primary listing which analysts said could ease the way for the Chinese ecommerce giant to switch primary listing venues in the future.  In premarket trading Friday, U.S.-listed shares of China Life Insurance and oil giant Sinopec fell 5.7% about 4.3% respectively. Aluminium Corporation of China dropped 1.7%, while PetroChina shed 4.3%. Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co shed 4.1%.

A spokesperson for NYSE declined to comment. A spokesperson for the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board, the audit watchdog overseen by the SEC, did not immediately provide comment.

                         LOSING PATIENCE?

Market-watchers were split over what the delistings might mean for the audit deal, with some saying it was a bad sign.

“China is sending a message that its patience is wearing thin in the audit talks,” said Kai Zhan, senior counsel at Chinese law firm Yuanda, who specializes in U.S. capital markets.

The companies said their U.S. traded share volume was small compared with those on their other major listing venues.

PetroChina said it had never raised follow-on capital from its U.S listing and its Hong Kong and Shanghai bases “can satisfy the company’s fundraising requirements” as well as providing “better protection of the interests of the investors.”

Global fund managers holding U.S.-listed Chinese stocks are steadily shifting towards their Hong Kong-traded peers, even as they remain hopeful the audit dispute will eventually be resolved, Reuters reported this week.

“These companies are very thinly traded with very small US market cap so it is not a loss for US capital markets,” Brendan Ahern, CIO of Krane Funds Advisors, which has a New York-listed fund focused on Chinese tech plays, wrote in an email.

He and analysts said the delistings could pave the way for China to comply with the U.S. requirements, since the five companies concerned likely have sensitive information China would not want exposed in an audit review.

“We see this as a positive sign. This is consistent with our view China will decide what companies would be allowed to be US-listed and thus subject to SEC’s audit investigations,” Jefferies analysts wrote in a note.

China Life and Chalco said they would file for delisting on Aug. 22, with it taking effect 10 days later. Sinopec, whose full name is China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, and PetroChina said their applications would be made on Aug. 29.

China Telecom, China Mobile and China Unicom were delisted from the United States in 2021 after a Trump-era decision to restrict investment in Chinese technology firms. That ruling has been left unchanged by the Biden administration amid continuing tensions.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Finanza e Sistema Bancario

Canada. Come negli Stati Uniti i fondi pensione sono in grave sofferenza.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-08-15.

2022-08-14__ Canada. Come negli Stati Uniti i fondi pensione sono in grave sofferenza.pgn

Con un certo quale ritardo rispetto agli Stati Uniti anche in Canada l’inflazione sta portando in sofferenza fondi di investimento e, soprattutto, fondi pensioni.

* * *

Fondi Pensioni ed Inflazione. Il macello è già iniziato. L’inflazione li falcia senza pietà.

Soaring inflation is hitting retirement savings hard.

I fondi pensioni di S&P 500 hanno un buco di 382 miliardi Usd.

General Electric. 31 mld Usd di buco nel fondo pensioni.

Inflazione. Powell e Lagarde non sanno che pesci prendere.

Usa. Un panino 18 Usd, una libbra di pomodori 12 Usd, patatine fritte 15 Usd.

America. Wall Street. Da Sep2021 al Jun22 18 la capitalizzazione ha perso 15.5 trilioni di dollari.

* * *

In Canada a giugno la inflazione aveva raggiunti l’8.133%.

Nulla quindi di cui stupirsi se il Canada Pension Plan Investment Board sia entrato in sofferenza e se gli investitori, sia privati sia istituzionali, vivano nel terrore di quanto avverrà, ossia il default.

* * * * * * *

Il Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, il più grande fondo pensionistico del Paese, ha registrato un rendimento negativo del 4.2% nel primo trimestre fiscale, penalizzato da un più ampio sell-off delle azioni globali. Il fondo ha chiuso il trimestre con un patrimonio netto di 523 miliardi di dollari (409 miliardi di dollari), ha dichiarato giovedì il CPPIB. Il fondo ha subito perdite anche negli investimenti a reddito fisso, mentre gli investimenti in private equity, credito e immobiliare hanno contribuito modestamente al calo, ha dichiarato il fondo.

I mercati azionari globali sono stati colpiti quest’anno dall’accelerazione dell’inflazione – e dagli aumenti dei tassi d’interesse delle banche centrali per contrastarla – che hanno pesato sugli utili societari e fatto temere una recessione. I rialzi dei tassi hanno anche danneggiato i prezzi delle obbligazioni, un’altra importante classe di attività per CPPIB.

I mercati finanziari hanno vissuto i primi sei mesi dell’anno più difficili dell’ultimo mezzo secolo e il primo trimestre fiscale del fondo non è stato immune da questo calo generalizzato. Il rendimento nominale netto annualizzato a cinque anni del fondo è sceso all’8.7%, dal 10% del trimestre conclusosi il 31 marzo, mentre il rendimento a 10 anni è passato al 1.3% dal 10.9%.

Sappiamo che i canadesi sono preoccupati per l’impatto della volatilità dei mercati sui loro piani pensionistici e possono trarre conforto dal fatto che il Fondo dovrebbe garantire una solida performance nel lungo periodo, anche in presenza di turbolenze periodiche come quelle a cui stiamo assistendo quest’anno.

* * * * * * *

«Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, the country’s largest pension fund, posted a negative 4.2% return in its fiscal first quarter, hurt by a broader sell-off in global equities. The fund ended the quarter with net assets of C$523 billion ($409 billion), CPPIB said Thursday. The fund also experienced losses in fixed-income investments, while private equity, credit and real estate investments also contributed “modestly” to the decline, the fund said.

Global equity markets have been hammered this year as accelerating inflation — and central banks’ interest-rate increases to combat it — have weighed on corporate earnings and prompted fears that a recession may be in the offing. The rate hikes have also hurt bond prices, another major asset class for CPPIB»

«Financial markets experienced the most challenging first six months of the year in the last half century, and the fund’s first fiscal quarter was not immune to such widespread decline. The fund’s five-year annualized net nominal return fell to 8.7%, from 10% as of the quarter ended March 31, while its 10-year return slipped to 10.3% from 10.9%»

«We know Canadians are concerned about the impact of market volatility on their retirement plans, and they can take comfort in the fact that the Fund is expected to deliver solid performance over the long term, even with periodic turbulence such as we are witnessing this year»

* * * * * * *


Canada’s Biggest Pension Posts 4.2% Drop on Equity Meltdown

– Interest rate increases hurt fund’s fixed-income investments

– Private equity, credit, real estate contribute to decline

* * * * * * *

Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, the country’s largest pension fund, posted a negative 4.2% return in its fiscal first quarter, hurt by a broader sell-off in global equities.

The fund ended the quarter with net assets of C$523 billion ($409 billion), CPPIB said Thursday. The fund also experienced losses in fixed-income investments, while private equity, credit and real estate investments also contributed “modestly” to the decline, the fund said. 

Global equity markets have been hammered this year as accelerating inflation — and central banks’ interest-rate increases to combat it — have weighed on corporate earnings and prompted fears that a recession may be in the offing. The rate hikes have also hurt bond prices, another major asset class for CPPIB.

“Financial markets experienced the most challenging first six months of the year in the last half century, and the fund’s first fiscal quarter was not immune to such widespread decline,” Chief Executive Officer John Graham said in the statement. “The uncertain business and investment conditions we noted in the previous quarter continue, and we expect to see this turbulence persist throughout the fiscal year.”

The fund’s five-year annualized net nominal return fell to 8.7%, from 10% as of the quarter ended March 31, while its 10-year return slipped to 10.3% from 10.9%.

CPPIB saw C$3.1 billion of foreign-exchange gains in the most recent quarter as the Canadian dollar weakened against the US currency. The fund also saw gains by external portfolio managers, quantitative trading strategies and investments in energy and infrastructure.

The Chief Actuary of Canada conducted its regular, three-year review of the long-term sustainability of the pension plan and confirmed that it remains sustainable over the 75-year projection period at its legislated contribution rates. The chief actuary’s findings are based on the assumption that the base account will earn an average return of 3.95% above Canadian consumer price inflation through 2093.

“We know Canadians are concerned about the impact of market volatility on their retirement plans, and they can take comfort in the fact that the Fund is expected to deliver solid performance over the long term, even with periodic turbulence such as we are witnessing this year,” Graham said.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Stati Uniti

Usa. Misurata in modo corretto l’inflazione è al 17.1% annualizzato. – Bloomberg.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-07-18.

Inflazione 002

«Measured this way, US consumer prices rose at a 17.1% annualized pace in June»

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Da tempo calcoliamo per uso interno l’inflazione annualizzando le variazioni mensili. I nostri risultati coincidono con quelli degli statistici di Bloomberg, ai quali evidentemente è stata tolta la museruola.

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L’inflazione è ancora peggiore se la si misura nel modo corretto.

Come avrete sentito, il tasso di inflazione negli Stati Uniti è del 9,1%. Vale a dire che l’indice dei prezzi al consumo per tutti gli articoli, stimato per il mese di giugno dal Bureau of Labor Statistics, è stato del 9,1% più alto rispetto a quello di un anno prima …. Altri indicatori economici generalmente non vengono misurati in questo modo.

Con le vendite al dettaglio è la variazione percentuale da un mese all’altro che fa notizia …. Con l’occupazione è la variazione mensile del numero di posti di lavoro …. Ecco come appare se seguiamo l’esempio del PIL e annualizziamo la variazione mensile dell’IPC.

Misurati in questo modo, i prezzi al consumo statunitensi sono aumentati a giugno a un ritmo annualizzato del 17,1%.

In una certa misura tutti gli indicatori economici discussi qui sono obsoleti, ovviamente ….  In tal caso, però, si dovrà guardare alle variazioni mensili e non a quelle annuali.

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«Inflation is even worse if you measure it the proper way»

«As you may have heard, the US inflation rate is 9.1%. That is, the consumer price index for all items as estimated for June by the Bureau of Labor Statistics was 9.1% higher than it was a year earlier …. Other economic indicators generally aren’t measured this way»

«With retail sales it’s the percentage change from one month to the next that gets the headlines …. With employment it’s the monthly change in the number of jobs …. Here’s what it looks like if we follow the GDP example and annualize the monthly CPI change»

«Measured this way, US consumer prices rose at a 17.1% annualized pace in June»

«To some extent all of the economic indicators discussed here are out-of-date, of course ….  If it does, though, the place to look will be in the monthly changes and not the annual ones»

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Inflation Is Even Worse If You Measure It the Proper Way

As you may have heard, the US inflation rate is 9.1%. That is, the consumer price index for all items as estimated for June by the Bureau of Labor Statistics was 9.1% higher than it was a year earlier.

Other economic indicators generally aren’t measured this way. With retail sales it’s the percentage change from one month to the next that gets the headlines. With employment it’s the monthly change in the number of jobs. With gross domestic product, in the US at least, it’s the annualized quarterly change .

In its monthly CPI news releases the BLS actually does mention the monthly percentage change — as in the change from May 2022 to June 2022 — before the annual comparison to the same month a year earlier, but this tends to get a lot less attention, probably because it’s so much smaller (1.3% in June) and harder to make sense of. That’s easy enough to fix, though. Here’s what it looks like if we follow the GDP example and annualize the monthly CPI change.

Measured this way, US consumer prices rose at a 17.1% annualized pace in June. That’s awful! But it is also, as is clear from the chart, possibly not very informative. Monthly CPI changes are volatile, and annualizing them just makes them more so.

To get past the volatility, policy makers and market watchers often focus on so-called “core” inflation that excludes food and energy prices. It rose 0.7% in June. Annualized that comes to 8.8%, compared with a 5.9% year-over-year gain.

Measured year-over-year, core inflation has been steadily declining since March. Measured month-to-month, it has been accelerating since then. And yes, it’s pretty noisy, but smooth it by annualizing the three-month change and the picture of accelerating core inflation remains.

I’m pretty sure that the monthly and three-month core inflation measures better reflect what’s been going on in the US economy over the past year than the annual change does. There was a spectacular burst of inflation last spring that subsequently subsided, only to be followed by new, smaller but still major waves — the latest of which certainly hasn’t crested yet in the CPI data.For context, consider what the current GDP trajectory would look like if we measured it as we did inflation. Year-over-year GDP change will still be positive even if the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s current gloomy GDPNow forecast of a second quarter in a row of declining GDP comes to pass. (I’ve started the chart with the quarter ending December 2020 because the wild GDP swings of the previous two quarters would otherwise make it really hard to read.)

There are some questions about what those quarterly GDP declines really mean, given that job growth has continued at a healthy pace and GDP would have risen in the first quarter if it hadn’t been for a big increase in imports that may have reflected US economic strength more than weakness. But it seems pretty obvious why we pay attention to quarterly GDP changes. In retrospect, annual GDP change gives a smoother, clearer view of the medium-term trajectory of the economy, but at turns in the business cycle that view is usually out-of-date. (The chart stops short of 2020 for the reason mentioned above.)

To some extent all of the economic indicators discussed here are out-of-date, of course. The CPI is among the timeliest, but the numbers released this week are supposed to represent average prices over the entire month of June. There’s been much pointing in recent weeks to signs that inflationary pressures are receding — gasoline prices, among the biggest inflation drivers so far this year, are down 8% since mid-June. Maybe this will have an impact on the next CPI report. If it does, though, the place to look will be in the monthly changes and not the annual ones.