Commerzbank. Un grandioso scandalo che coinvolge anche l’Italia.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-09-14.

Le dimensioni dello scandalo che sta coinvolgendo Commerzbank sono di  dimensioni tali che se ne occupa persino il giornale ufficiale del Governo cinese.

«German authorities are widening their investigations into what might become the biggest tax scandal in German history, the German business newspaper Handelsblatt reported on Tuesday.»

«According to Handelsblatt, the head office of Commerzbank in Frankfurt was searched in connection to suspected tax fraud, in which the bank was believed to have sold blocks of shares used for illegal cum-ex trading»

«The controversial cum-ex deals took advantage of a legal loophole that was closed in Germany in 2012 which enabled participants to obtain multiple refunds on a tax that was only paid once.»

«According to the latest figures from the German Ministry of Finance, 499 cases with a volume of 5.5 billion euros (6.7 billion U.S. dollars) linked to the cum-ex deals were currently under investigation.»

«However, the actual tax loss in Germany from cum-ex trading was estimated to be much higher, the German Finance Ministry noted.»

«The first criminal trial against two British investment bankers in the context of the cum-ex deals was opened at the regional court in Bonn at the start of September.»

* * *

«One hundred financial institutions linked to decade-long fraud that exploited tax code flaw»

«Cologne prosecutors have raided Commerzbank’s Frankfurt headquarters as part of a criminal investigation into a decade-long tax fraud that cost the country billions of euros»

«The latest raid is one of a number of nationwide investigations into the “cum-ex” scandal, described as the worst tax scam in German history, whereby financial groups and their clients allegedly exploited a design flaw in the tax code to trick authorities into refunding dividend tax that had never actually been paid»

«However, its internal probe into the cum-ex linked equity transactions of Dresdner Bank, the rival German lender it bought in 2009, had not yet been completed and disclosed to prosecutors.»

«A cum-ex deal typically involved a trader borrowing a block of shares to bet against them using a technique called short selling in the run-up to dividend day and then selling them across national borders to another investor»

«A loophole meant parties on both sides of the trade could successfully claim a refund of withholding taxes paid on the dividend»

«About 100 financial institutions have been linked to cum-ex deals, including crosstown rival Deutsche Bank, DZ Bank and HypoVereinsbank, the German division of Italian lender UniCredit»

* * * * * * *

Stabilirà il tribunale se ci sia stata frode fiscale e, nel caso, l’ammontare esatto. Se le voci fossero vere, si tratterebbe di una cifra superiore ai 5.5 miliardi di euro. Oltre, ovviamente, al danno di immagine.

Tuttavia al momento alcune considerazioni sembrerebbero essere lecite.

– Le banche tedesche stanno rapidamente involvendosi. il cum-ex è solo l’ultimo scandalo emerso, ma c’è sempre tutto il resto.

– La legislazione bancaria e fiscale tedesca, come peraltro quella di quasi tutti gli stati dell’Unione Europea e le stesse direttive della banca centrale sono prolisse, ridondanti, in continuo ingiustificato rinnovamento, ove tutto è detto e tutto è negato. Costituiscono un blocco di migliaia di pagine, ove al testo base si assommano migliaia di casi particolari ed eccezioni.

– Nessuno si illuda che lo scandalo sia limitato alla Germania: per esempio, la HypoVereinsbank è italiana, di UniCredit.

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Financial Times. 2019-09-11. Commerzbank raided by prosecutors investigating German tax scandal

One hundred financial institutions linked to decade-long fraud that exploited tax code flaw.

Cologne prosecutors have raided Commerzbank’s Frankfurt headquarters as part of a criminal investigation into a decade-long tax fraud that cost the country billions of euros. The latest raid is one of a number of nationwide investigations into the “cum-ex” scandal, described as the worst tax scam in German history, whereby financial groups and their clients allegedly exploited a design flaw in the tax code to trick authorities into refunding dividend tax that had never actually been paid. In a statement, the prosecutor’s office said that “investigative measures” were carried out on Tuesday “within the framework of the procedure complex around the cum-ex transactions”. It said that “due to tax secrecy”, no further information could be provided. “We cannot comment on ongoing investigations,” Commerzbank said. “We are fully co-operating with the authorities and hope the matter is resolved as quickly as possible.” Commerzbank said in its most recent financial report it had “initiated a forensic analysis of cum-ex transactions” between 2015 and 2018 and handed over the results to authorities. However, its internal probe into the cum-ex linked equity transactions of Dresdner Bank, the rival German lender it bought in 2009, had not yet been completed and disclosed to prosecutors. A cum-ex deal typically involved a trader borrowing a block of shares to bet against them using a technique called short selling in the run-up to dividend day and then selling them across national borders to another investor. A loophole meant parties on both sides of the trade could successfully claim a refund of withholding taxes paid on the dividend — even though authorities say in reality only a single rebate was due. Germany’s finance ministry has said that 499 deals worth €5.5bn that took place between 2001 and 2011 are being investigated, and €2.4bn has already been recovered by tax authorities Commerzbank is not the only organisation under scrutiny. About 100 financial institutions have been linked to cum-ex deals, including crosstown rival Deutsche Bank, DZ Bank and HypoVereinsbank, the German division of Italian lender UniCredit. Last week, two British former stockbrokers went on trial in Bonn accused of defrauding German taxpayers of €440m in lost tax, and face up to 10 years in jail. Cologne investigators are also probing Deutsche’s former investment banking boss Garth Ritchie, as well as other current and former employees, over any knowledge of and involvement in illicit tax transactions, the Financial Times reported in June. Mr Ritchie has said he is confident the investigation will show no wrongdoing by him. Late last year Deutsche paid €4m to settle a separate cum-ex investigation by the Frankfurt general prosecutor’s office that looked into how the bank helped clients agree the illicit deals. Deutsche maintains it never actively participated in such transactions “as a short seller nor as cum-ex purchaser”, but acknowledges that “as a big market participant, [it] was involved in cum-ex deals of customers”.

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Xinhuanet. 2019-09-11. German Commerzbank searched in connection with tax fraud scandal: report

BERLIN, Sept. 10 (Xinhua) — German authorities are widening their investigations into what might become the biggest tax scandal in German history, the German business newspaper Handelsblatt reported on Tuesday.

According to Handelsblatt, the head office of Commerzbank in Frankfurt was searched in connection to suspected tax fraud, in which the bank was believed to have sold blocks of shares used for illegal cum-ex trading.

The controversial cum-ex deals took advantage of a legal loophole that was closed in Germany in 2012 which enabled participants to obtain multiple refunds on a tax that was only paid once.

According to the latest figures from the German Ministry of Finance, 499 cases with a volume of 5.5 billion euros (6.7 billion U.S. dollars) linked to the cum-ex deals were currently under investigation.

However, the actual tax loss in Germany from cum-ex trading was estimated to be much higher, the German Finance Ministry noted.

On Tuesday, the Cologne public prosecutor´s office confirmed to Handelsblatt that “investigation measures are being carried out today as part of the complex of proceedings surrounding the cum-ex transactions,” without giving further details.

Commerzbank declined to comment on “ongoing investigations” but was fully cooperating with the authorities. “It is in our own interest that this matter be resolved as quickly as possible”, a spokesperson told Handelsblatt.

The business newspaper reported that German investigators suspected that Commerzbank, as a service provider, had not collected any capital taxes itself but had indirectly benefited from the business structure around cum-ex deals.

The first criminal trial against two British investment bankers in the context of the cum-ex deals was opened at the regional court in Bonn at the start of September. The two bankers are accused of having caused tax losses of more than 440 million euros.(1 euro = 1.10 U.S. dollars)

Annunci

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd vorrebbe comprare il London Stock Exchange Group.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-09-11.

Al momento attuale nessuno può prevedere se l’offerta di acquisto del London Stock Exchange Group avanzata da Hong Kong Exchanges e da Clearing Ltd vada o meno a buon fine.

«Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd. hanno presentato a sorpresa un’offerta per acquisire il London Stock Exchange Group da 31,6 miliardi di sterline incluso il debito (circa 36 miliardi di euro).»

«HKEX is already the owner and operator of the London Metal Exchange, the world’s largest market in options and futures contracts on base and other metals. It bought the LME in 2012 for £1.4 billion.»

«The HKEX said the deal would be funded by a combination of existing cash and a new credit facility. It cautioned, however, that its statement to the market should be considered as an announcement to make a possible offer and is not confirmation of a firm intention to bid»

«HKEX has proposed £20.45 a share in cash, as well as 2.495 newly issued HKEX shares. LSE shares rallied shortly after 10:00 a.m. London time, rising by 8.5% before giving up some of those initial gains»

«Charles Li, the chief executive of HKEX, played down any tension surrounding a Chinese firm taking control of a strategic U.K. brand with access to sensitive market information»

«We are not a Chinese company. We are not even a Hong Kong-only company. We are a global company»

«Refinitiv. The data group, which is majority owned by the private equity group Blackstone, was last year spun out of the news wire service Reuters.»

«LSE had announced plans to spend $27 billion on Refinitiv in order to provide a complete one-stop-shop to banks and brokers who need a platform for trading, hardware and a continuous flow of data and news. It was considered a strategy that would directly challenge Bloomberg’s terminal and data package»

* * * * * * *

Se l’operazione di acquisto e/o fusione andasse in porto, il mondo borsistico subirebbe una vera e propria mutazione genetica.

Il nuovo operatore sarebbe in grado di operare continuativamente per diciotto ore consecutive e si porrebbe in diretta concorrenza con la borsa di New York, eguagliandone i volumi scambiati.

Per quanto sia opportuno ricordare come Hong Kong sia territorio cinese a tutti gli effetti, la dirigenza della Borsa di Hong Kong si è affrettata a rilasciare questa dichiarazione:

«We are not a Chinese company. We are not even a Hong Kong-only company. We are a global company»

Ma mica tutti sono pronti a credere a questa affermazione.

Una operazione di questa portata strategica non potrebbe nemmeno essere concepita senza l’avvallo preventivo del Governo cinese.

* * *

Alla luce di quanto successo, ben si comprende l’accanimento occidentale nel fomentare i disordini di Hong Kong, così come diventano ben più facilmente spiegabili i mal di pancia tedeschi.

German foreign minister meeting with Joshua Wong ‘disrespectful’: China

«Beijing has slammed democracy activist Joshua Wong’s meeting with Germany’s foreign minister as “disrespectful.” Wong has urged countries to stand by Hong Kong protesters against the long arm of China in the city. ….

China’s Foreign Ministry on Tuesday criticized Germany over a meeting between the country’s foreign minister and a Hong Kong activist.

Heiko Maas met pro-democracy activist Joshua Wong at a media-sponsored human rights event at the German parliament the previous evening. ….

“It is extremely wrong for German media and politicians to attempt to tap into the anti-China separatist wave,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying at a news briefing. 

“It is disrespectful of China’s sovereignty and an interference in China’s internal affairs.”»

La Borsa di Francoforte diverrebbe in breve una piazza del tutto secondaria, con tutte le conseguenze. Uno smacco grandioso per Frau Merkel.

E quella di Herr Heiko Maas acquista la connotazione di uno sfogo di rabbia impotente.

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Ansa. 2019-09-11. Borsa Hong Kong lancia a sorpresa offerta da 36 mld su quella di Londra

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd. hanno presentato a sorpresa un’offerta per acquisire il London Stock Exchange Group da 31,6 miliardi di sterline incluso il debito (circa 36 miliardi di euro). L’amministratore delegato Charles Li ha dichiarato che da tempo l’operatore asiatico di borsa aveva considerato l’accordo “ambizioso e di vasta portata”. A inizio agosto Lse aveva intanto raggiunto un’ intesa per rilevare il provider di dati finanziari e di piattaforme di trading Refinitiv in una operazione da 27 miliardi di dollari.

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Cnbc. 2019-09-11. Hong Kong stock exchange makes $36.6 billion offer for London stock exchange

– HKEX confirms it has made a proposal to the Board of London Stock Exchange Group to “combine the two companies.”

– The deal values the LSE at about £29.6 billion ($36.6 billion).

– LSE recently agreed to purchase data group Refinitiv for $27 billion but HKEX said that deal wouldn’t happen under its proposal.

*

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) said Wednesday it had made a proposal to the board of London Stock Exchange Group Plc (LSE) to “combine the two companies,” in a deal which values the LSE at about £29.6 billion ($36.6 billion).

The HKEX said the deal would be funded by a combination of existing cash and a new credit facility. It cautioned, however, that its statement to the market should be considered as an announcement to make a possible offer and is not confirmation of a firm intention to bid.

The statement from HKEX said a further announcement will be made “as and when appropriate.”

HKEX has proposed £20.45 a share in cash, as well as 2.495 newly issued HKEX shares. LSE shares rallied shortly after 10:00 a.m. London time, rising by 8.5% before giving up some of those initial gains.

In a subsequent conference call held for media and analysts, HKEX executives described the deal as a means of connecting trading and capital between East and West. They added the deal would create an 18-hour trading zone and also help the rise of the Chinese yuan as a globally-traded currency.

Charles Li, the chief executive of HKEX, played down any tension surrounding a Chinese firm taking control of a strategic U.K. brand with access to sensitive market information.

“We are not a Chinese company. We are not even a Hong Kong-only company. We are a global company,” he said.

‘Highly complementary’

HKEX said it expected key LSE management to keep their jobs and work for the new owners.

“The board of HKEX believes that the two businesses are highly complementary and as such, looks forward to working with the relevant authorities to deliver a clear path to completion,” the HKEX said.

HKEX added that the proposed deal would only go ahead if LSE backs down from its plan to buy Refinitiv. The data group, which is majority owned by the private equity group Blackstone, was last year spun out of the news wire service Reuters.

LSE had announced plans to spend $27 billion on Refinitiv in order to provide a complete one-stop-shop to banks and brokers who need a platform for trading, hardware and a continuous flow of data and news. It was considered a strategy that would directly challenge Bloomberg’s terminal and data package.

In a note released Wednesday, analysts at Swiss bank UBS suggested the ambition to buy Refinitiv may see LSE reluctant to entertain the HKEX interest.

“Given the recent transformational announcement by LSE to acquire Refinitiv in early August, made by a CEO just 12 months into his role, we would be surprised to see LSE’s management and board prefer a takeover bid from HKEX,” said UBS.

UBS added that recent protests in Hong Kong could also act as a brake on any deal.

HKEX is already the owner and operator of the London Metal Exchange, the world’s largest market in options and futures contracts on base and other metals. It bought the LME in 2012 for £1.4 billion.

Borse occidentali tutte in profondo rosso. Fine delle illusioni.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-08-14. h 17:05.

Borse giù, allarme recessione Usa: si inverte curva rendimenti bond 2-10 anni, prima volta dal 2007

«La Borsa di New York ha avviato le contrattazioni in calo, risentendo dei nuovi timori di un rallentamento dell’economia a stelle e strisce, dopo l’inversione della curva dei rendimenti dei titoli di Stato Usa. Intanto, le Borse europee si confermano deboli, non riuscendo a mantenere il trend positivo che ieri le aveva portate a chiudere in buon rialzo sulla scia del rinvio a dicembre di alcuni dazi Usa sui prodotti cinesi. I listini sono penalizzati da una serie di dati macroeconomici negativi pubblicati in Cina e in Germania. A questi fattori, appunto, si è aggiunta la preoccupazione per l’inversione della curva dei rendimenti dei titoli di Stato Usa tra la scadenza a 2 anni e quella a 10, situazione che torna a verificarsi per la prima volta da maggio 2007 e che, negli ultimi 40 anni, è sempre stata anticipatrice di una recessione dell’economia americana.»

*

Germania: Pil in calo nel II trimestre, ‘fine del decennio d’oro’

«In Francia boccata d’ossigeno per Macron dal mercato lavoro (Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor Plus)- Milano, 14 ago – La locomotiva tedesca e’ (quasi) in panne. Sotto il peso del rallentamento globale del commercio, il Pil della Germania ha accusato una contrazione dello 0,1% nel secondo trimestre dell’anno, che alimenta ancor piu’ i timori di recessione che la maggiore economia della zona euro aveva evitato di stretta misura nella seconda meta’ dello scorso anno. I dati sono in linea con le attese, sulla scia degli sfavorevoli indici settoriali dei mesi scorsi e giungono dopo il rimbalzo dello 0,4% nel primo trimestre. Resta il fatto che a livello annualizzato la crescita e’ dello 0,4%, il ritmo piu’ lento da sei anni a questa parte ed e’ un andamento nettamente peggiore rispetto alla media dell’Eurozona, che – sia pure in rallentamento – ha registrato nel suo insieme una crescita dello 0,2% nel secondo trimestre. Stretta tra la crisi dell’auto, la guerra commerciale tra Usa e Cina e la prospettiva di un’uscita caotica della Gran Bretagna dalla Ue, la locomotiva tedesca rischia cosi’ di deragliare nella recessione»

*

No.

La Germania è già in depressione, chiamando le cose con il loro nome.

 Tittillare la Cina non porta nulla di buono.

Argentina. Merval. -48%. Fine delle illusioni.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-08-13.

«The Merval stock market index tumbled 48 percent in dollar terms on Monday, with financials and energy stocks among the worst performers. It was the second-biggest one-day fall on any of the 94 stock exchanges tracked by Bloomberg going back to 1950 after market-friendly President Mauricio Macri was defeated in Sunday’s primary election by a wider-than-expected 15.5 percentage points. Alberto Fernandez, who has former President Cristina Kirchner as VP, is now the favourite to become Argentina’s next leader. Historically, the Argentina Stock Market (MERVAL) reached an all time high of 44470.76 in August of 2019 and a record low of 193.40 in November of 2001.»

Dow Jones -2.9%, S&P 500 -2.98%, Nasdaq -3.4%, Russell 2000 -3.02%, al 2019-08-05.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-08-06.

«Un cane nuotava per il fiume, portando in bocca un pezzo di carne. Ad un tratto vide la sua immagine nello specchio delle acque e, credendo che un altro cane portasse una seconda preda, volle strappargliela. Ma la sua avidità fu punita: lasciò cadere il cibo che teneva in bocca e non riuscì neppure a toccare quello che desiderava.» [Fedro]

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Di questi tempi gli indici azionari forniscono ampi elementi ai media, ma, stranamente, è alquanto difficile che la gente sappia cosa rappresentano e come li si calcoli. Questo porta a non riuscire a comprendere cosa stia accadendo nei fatti.

«Gli indici azionari sono la sintesi del valore del paniere di titoli azionari che rappresentano. I movimenti dell’indice sono una buona approssimazione del variare nel tempo della valorizzazione dei titoli compresi nel portafoglio. Esistono differenti metodologie di calcolo degli indici, a seconda della ponderazione che viene attribuita alle azioni del paniere.

Si distingue tra:

    – Indici equally weighted: questi sono caratterizzati dall’uguaglianza dei fattori di ponderazione per tutti i titoli che compongono l’indice. Non importa la capitalizzazione delle società incluse, perché tutti i titoli dell’indice hanno il medesimo peso;

    – Indici price weighted: in questo caso il peso associato ad ogni titolo varia in funzione del suo prezzo (se il prezzo di un titolo aumenta più degli altri, automaticamente aumenta anche il suo peso all’interno dell’indice). Essi sono molto semplici da calcolare in quanto sono dati dalla semplice somma dei prezzi dei titoli che compongono l’indice. Tali indici, tuttavia, hanno lo svantaggio di non rispecchiare correttamente l’andamento dell’intero portafoglio: infatti vengono rappresentati maggiormente i titoli più “costosi”, a prescindere dal numero di azioni presenti e dalle dimensioni della società;

    – Indici value weighted: Questi risolvono i problemi dei precedenti in quanto il peso di ciascun titolo risulta proporzionale alla sua capitalizzazione di borsa. Al contrario delle altre metodologie di calcolo, in questo caso gli indici vengono aggiustati e rettificati a seguito di operazioni societarie quali frazionamenti, raggruppamenti, pagamento di dividendi straordinari, scissioni, assegnazioni gratuite o nuove emissioni a pagamento.

    – Indici di sostenibilità: Questi indici, nati nella finanza anglosassone (Sustainability Index), sono ormai molto diffusi e pesano ciascun titolo secondo principi alternativi ai criteri economici e dimensionali ed introducono valutazioni di CSR o più puramente socio-ambientali. Molto spesso sono indici elaborati dalle stesse case che elaborano gli indici maggiori, come il Dow Jones Sustainability World Index o lo STOXX ESG, o di case indipendenti come lo Standard Ethics Italian Index.

La maggior parte dei principali indici mondiali sono pertanto calcolati con la metodologia value weighted. Tra questi ricordiamo gli americani S&P 500 e gli indici Nyse Composite, l’italiano FTSE MIB (in vigore dal 1º giugno 2009 per Borsa Italiana in seguito alla sua acquisizione da parte di LSE annunciata il 23 giugno 2007 ed avvenuta nell’ottobre dello stesso anno, sostituendo il precedente S&P Mib), il FTSE 100 (UK), il CAC 40 (Francia), il DAX 30 (Germania) ed il Topix (Giappone). Tra i pochi indici price weighted rimasti, i due più importanti sono il Dow Jones (USA), l’indice di borsa più antico della storia, il Nikkei 225 (Giappone), e il Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP).»

*

Il Nasdaq Composite non fa riferimento solo a compagnie che risiedono negli Stati Uniti d’America, ed è questa una caratteristica che lo distingue notevolmente dagli altri U.S. Index.

«The Russell 2000 Index is a small-cap stock market index of the bottom 2,000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index. It was started by the Frank Russell Company in 1984. The index is maintained by FTSE Russell, a subsidiary of the London Stock Exchange Group.

The Russell 2000 is by far the most common benchmark for mutual funds that identify themselves as “small-cap”, while the S&P 500 index is used primarily for large capitalization stocks. It is the most widely quoted measure of the overall performance of the small-cap to mid-cap company shares. The index represents approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index. As of 28 February 2019, the weighted average market capitalization for a company in the index is around $2.43 billion; the median market cap is $818 million. The market cap of the largest company in the index is $8.65 billion. It first traded above the 1,000 level on May 20, 2013.

Similar small-cap indices include the S&P 600 from Standard & Poor’s, which is less commonly used, along with those from other financial information providers.»

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Un altro concetto di particolare utilità è rappresentato dalla ‘capitalizzazione azionaria‘.

«In finanza, il termine capitalizzazione fa riferimento al valore di mercato delle azioni di una società; è calcolato moltiplicando il numero di azioni per il loro prezzo di mercato – che può differire anche di molto dal loro valore nominale. Poiché le azioni in circolazione vengono acquistate e vendute nei mercati pubblici, la capitalizzazione azionaria potrebbe essere utilizzata come indicatore dell’opinione pubblica sul patrimonio netto di un’impresa ed è un fattore determinante in alcune forme di valutazione delle azioni.

La capitalizzazione riflette solo il valore patrimoniale di una società. La scelta della struttura del capitale di un’impresa ha un impatto significativo sul modo in cui viene ripartito il valore complessivo di un’impresa tra capitale e debito. Una misura più completa è il valore dell’impresa, che ha effetto sul debito in circolazione, sulle azioni privilegiate e su altri fattori.

Per le compagnie di assicurazione, è stato utilizzato un valore chiamato “valore incorporato”.La capitalizzazione azionaria è utilizzata dalla comunità degli investitori per classificare le dimensioni delle aziende (a fianco alle vendite o al totale delle attività), o per classificare le dimensioni relative delle borse, essendo una misura della somma delle capitalizzazioni di mercato di tutte le società quotate in ciascuna borsa. Nell’esecuzione di tali classifiche, le capitalizzazioni di mercato sono calcolate in una data significativa, come il 30 giugno o il 31 dicembre.

La capitalizzazione totale dei mercati azionari o delle regioni economiche può essere confrontata con altri indicatori economici. La capitalizzazione di mercato totale di tutte le società quotate in borsa nel mondo era di 51,2 trilioni di dollari nel gennaio 2007 ed è salito fino a 57.5 trilioni di dollari nel maggio 2008 prima di scendere sotto i 50 trilioni di dollari nell’agosto 2008 e leggermente sopra i 40 trilioni di dollari nel settembre 2008. Nel 2014 e 2015, la capitalizzazione di mercato globale è stata rispettivamente di 68 e di 67 trilioni di dollari statunitensi.»

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Alcune sintetiche considerazioni, scritte senza utilizzare terminologia tecnica, per farsi meglio capire.

– Il cuore del problema risiede nel fatto che

«la capitalizzazione azionaria potrebbe essere utilizzata come

indicatore dell’opinione pubblica sul patrimonio netto di un’impresa».

Le quotazioni di borsa hanno sempre un fondamento puramente soggettivo. Nei periodi di euforia, quasi invariabilmente le quotazioni azionarie, e quindi le capitalizzazioni, superano anche di diversi ordini di grandezza il reale valore delle società. Nei periodi invece di panico, le capitalizzazioni scendono, talora crollano.

– Per quanto possa sembrare strano, anche i grandi investitori operano quasi di norma sull’onda della emotività.

– Trovare un consulente finanziario che sfrutti l’altrui emotività per trarne guadagni, ma che, stando bene con i piedi sulla terra, sappia ritirarsi quando le quotazioni borsistiche superano i valori di soglia, è la chiave di volta per arricchirsi.

– Il metro sovrano per identificare il buon consulente finanziario è il grado di ricchezza che ha conseguito in proprio, per sé stesso: ben difficilmente un consulente finanziario che non abbia saputo arricchirsi potrebbe fare guadagnare i propri clienti. Che vada bene, farà gli interessi della banca.

– Ci si guardi attentamente dalla ingordigia

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Differenze tra gli indici S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Russell Index

In questa guida che fa seguito alla guida fintech e le prospettive d’investimento dirompenti per i prossimi anni, parleremo degli indici S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq e degli Indici Russell, della loro composizione, come si calcolano e nozioni storiche.

Mettiti comodo che iniziamo.

Cos’è il Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)

Comunemente noto come Dow Jones è l’indice storico della Borsa di New York, inventato da Charles Dow e dal socio Edward Jones nel 1896. L’indice rappresenta le prime 30 aziende del NYSE e tra esse troviamo Walt Disney Company, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Microsoft Corporation.

Inizialmente il Dow includeva solo 12 compagnie statunitense, ma per l’epoca rappresentavano una buona fetta dell’economia, che in prevalenza copriva il settore industriale e delle materie prime: gas, petrolio, zucchero, cotone, ferrovie, tabacco.

A partire dal 1928 l’indice ha raggiunto i 30 componenti che nel tempo sono variati ben 51 volte. L’ultima variazione è avvenuta il 26 giugno 2018, quando la Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. ha sostituito la General Electric Company.

Come viene calcolato il Dow Jones. L’indice è ponderato in base al prezzo, quindi le azioni con maggiori quotazioni azionarie pesano di più all’interno del Dow Jones. Inizialmente la media veniva calcolata aggiungendo i prezzi delle 12 scorte del componente Dow e dividendo per 12. A causa di fusioni e scissioni, nel tempo sono state aggiunte divisioni e sottrazioni all’indice per tenere conto di queste variazioni.

Le maggiori società del Dow Jones attuale

– The 3M Company.

– Apple Inc.

– The Boeing Company.

– Johnson & Johnson.

– JPMorgan Chase & Co.

– Nike Inc.

– McDonald’s Corporation.

– Visa Inc.

– Walmart Inc.

Cos’è il Nasdaq

Il Nasdaq è una Borsa con sede a New York in Times Square, l’acronimo sta per National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation. La sua caratteristica peculiare risiede nel fatto di essere il primo mercato borsistico al mondo completamente basato su una rete di computer.

L’indice più famoso del mercato è il Nasdaq Composite Index che rappresenta oltre 3.300 azioni ordinarie tra cui: common stock, fondi comuni di investimento mobiliare (REIT), ecc.

Il Nasdaq Composite non fa riferimento solo a compagnie che risiedono negli Stati Uniti d’America, ed è questa una caratteristica che lo distingue notevolmente dagli altri U.S. Index.

Per calcolare il Nasdaq Composite Index si usa una metodologia di ponderazione della capitalizzazione di mercato. Il valore dell’indice è quindi pari al valore totale dei pesi delle azioni di ciascun titolo. Il totale viene regolato dividendolo per un divisore di indice, che ridimensiona il valore in una figura più appropriata. L’indice varia ogni secondo, ma il valore di riferimento di giornata è quello delle ore 16:16.

Cos’è l’Indice Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500)

L’indice Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) è un indice ponderato delle 500 più grandi compagnie statunitensi quotate alla Borsa di New York, negli indici Nasdaq e Dow Jones presentati in precedenza. Esso è uno dei numerosi indici “coniati” dalla società di rating Standard & Poor’s.

Il criterio di scelta delle compagnie che ne entrano a far parte è molto semplice, le prime 500 per capitalizzazione di mercato, scelte dal Comitato di gestione dell’indice S&P 500.

L’indice è il miglior indicatore dell’andamento dei titoli azionari delle più grandi società USA quotate in borsa.

Dax. C’è chi piange ma anche chi se la ride. DE000XM4SRT4

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-08-06.

Ieri il Dax ha evidenziato una consistente contrazione.

Tutte le persone che si fossero illuse che la pacchia sarebbe durata in eterno stano ora piangendo tutte le possibili lacrime.

Ma c’è anche uno sparuto manipolo di operatori che guardano in modo spassionato la realtà dei fatti, senza preconcetti di sorta.

Comprato attorno a 16 e rivenduto a 21. Un guadagno lordo del 31% in poco più di due giorni.

Con buona pace degli idealisti, che almeno in questa occasione sono pur serviti a qualcosa.

Borse. Ore 09:30. Chi bene incomincia è a metà dell’opera. FTSE MIB -1%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-08-05. h 09:30.

I conti si dovrebbero fare sentendo prima l’oste.

 

Star Market. Oggi primo giorno spumeggiante del Nasdaq cinese.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-07-22.

Questa mattina ha aperto lo Star Market, l’equivalente cinese del Nasdaq. che opera nell’ambito dello Shanghai Stock Exchange.

Al momento, sono venticinque i titoli in quotazione, che hanno dimostrato sostanziali aumenti di quotazione.

«Trading hit a fever pitch, with shares rocketing as much as 520%, as China’s new Nasdaq-style board for homegrown tech firms debuted on Monday, with valuations exceeding even the expectations of veteran investors braced for a wild ride.»

«Trading of Anji had to be suspended for 10 minutes at 10.20am after the stock soared by 404 per cent to 197.6 yuan from its offering price of 39.19 yuan.»

«The firms, spanning industries from microchips and biotechnology to artificial intelligence, were greeted by an immediate buying spree as trading opened at 9.30am. They all went on to record gains of at least 100 per cent by the end of the morning session, but settled back slightly in the afternoon to close at least 84 per cent higher»

* * * * * * *

Se l’entusiasmo sia più che comprensibile, incrementi di questo livello sembrerebbero essere del tutto contrari al comune buon senso.

Poi, come al solito nei periodi estivi, i volumi trattati sono stati scarni.

Sarebbe quindi cosa savia prendere atto di questa nuova opportunità, ma anche lasciar decantare la situazione.

Infatti, questa nuova realtà ha chiari significati politici: la China intende andare a competere per il predominio mondiale nel settore tecnologico avanzato.

«About four million qualified retail investors with no less than 500,000 yuan in investment capital have registered to trade shares on the new market, according to China Business News. More than 100 million individual stock traders buy and sell on the regular mainland China bourses.

Star Market was ordered into existence by Chinese President Xi Jinping in November last year. It is aimed at helping Beijing sustain economic growth by funding technological innovation rather than through massive infrastructure spending. China’s regulators have spent the past eight months preparing the ground for Monday’s launch.

The launch of the new board is a fresh sign China has shifted its focus from quantity and pace to quality in driving economic growth, …. China is highlighting the role of the capital market in bolstering technology companies, and encouraging them to conduct technological innovation»

Verosimilmente, lo Star market sarà guardato con occhio di riguardo da parte dello stato cinese.

---

South China Morning Post. 2019-07-22. Star Market, a ‘breakthrough in 30-year history of China’s stock market’, gets off to shining start as all debutants see share prices soar

« – All 25 debutants on Shanghai’s new Star Market finish the first day’s trading with gains of at least 84 per cent

– Semiconductor maker Anji Microelectronics is the star performer, its share price rising fivefold on day one

The Shanghai Stock Exchange’s new Star Market got off to a suitably stellar start on Monday with all 25 debutants soaring as investors clamoured for a slice of the action.

The firms, spanning industries from microchips and biotechnology to artificial intelligence, were greeted by an immediate buying spree as trading opened at 9.30am. They all went on to record gains of at least 100 per cent by the end of the morning session, but settled back slightly in the afternoon to close at least 84 per cent higher.

Anji Microelectronics (Shanghai), a semiconductor manufacturer, got off to a momentous start, its shares opening 287 per cent higher than the initial public offering price.

Trading of Anji had to be suspended for 10 minutes at 10.20am after the stock soared by 404 per cent to 197.6 yuan from its offering price of 39.19 yuan.»

*

---

Investing. 2019-07-22. Circuit breakers trip, shares soar as China’s Nasdaq-style bourse debuts

«Trading hit a fever pitch, with shares rocketing as much as 520%, as China’s new Nasdaq-style board for homegrown tech firms debuted on Monday, with valuations exceeding even the expectations of veteran investors braced for a wild ride.

All of the first batch of 25 companies – ranging from chip-makers to health care firms – more than doubled their already frothy initial public offering (IPO) prices on the STAR Market, operated by the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

“The price gains are crazier than we expected,” said Stephen Huang, vice president of Shanghai See Truth Investment Management. “These are good companies, but valuations are too high. Buying them now makes no sense.” …. »

*

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Business Times. 2019-07-22. Most companies surge on first day of trade on China’s Star Market

«China’s new Nasdaq-style board for homegrown technology firms started trading on Monday, with most of the stocks surging in their debut.

Most of the first batch of 25 companies – ranging from chip-makers to biotech firms – climbed quickly in early trade on the STAR Market, operated by the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

Zhangjiang Hangke Technology Inc was the first company to hit an upper-limit circuit breaker designed to temporarily halt trading in a bid to calm frenzied buying, climbing 30 per cent from the market open.

Suzhou Harmontronics Automation Technology, however, triggered its circuit breaker in the opposite direction, falling 30 per cent from the market open.»

*

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Reuters. 2019-07-22. Manic Monday for China’s Nasdaq-style bourse as shares rocket

SHANGHAI (Reuters) – Trading on China’s new Nasdaq-style board for homegrown tech firms hit a fever pitch on Monday, sending shares up as much as 400% for the day, and far exceeding the expectations of veteran investors braced for a wild ride.

Sixteen of the first batch of 25 companies – ranging from chip-makers to health care firms – more than doubled their already frothy initial public offering (IPO) prices on the STAR Market, operated by the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

The companies racked up average gains of 140% in a raucous first day of trade that tripped the exchange’s circuit breakers designed to calm frenzied activity. The day’s weakest performer leapt 84.22%.

“The price gains are crazier than we expected,” said Stephen Huang, vice president of Shanghai See Truth Investment Management. “These are good companies, but valuations are too high. Buying them now makes no sense.”

Modeled after Nasdaq, and complete with a U.S-style IPO system, STAR may be China’s boldest attempt at capital market reforms yet. It is also seen driven by Beijing’s ambition to become technologically self-reliant as a prolonged trade war with Washington catches Chinese tech firms in the cross-fire.

Trading in Anji Microelectronics Technology (Shanghai) Co Ltd (688019.SS), a semiconductor firm, was briefly halted twice as the company’s shares hit two circuit breakers – first after rising 30%, then after climbing 60% from the market open.

The mechanisms did little to keep Anji shares in check as they soared as much as 520% from their IPO price in the morning session. Anji shares ended the day up 400.2% from their IPO price, the day’s biggest gain, giving the company a valuation of nearly 242 times 2018 earnings.

Suzhou Harmontronics Automation Technology Co Ltd (688022.SS), in contrast, triggered its circuit breaker in the opposite direction, falling 30% from the market open in early trade before rebounding. But by the market close, the company’s shares were still 94.61% higher than their IPO price.

Wild share price swings, partly the result of loose trading rules, had been widely expected. IPOs had been oversubscribed by an average of about 1,700 times among retail investors.

The STAR Market sets no limits on share prices during the first five days of a company’s trading. That compares with a cap of 44% on debut on other boards in China.

In subsequent trading sessions, stocks on the new tech board will be allowed to rise or fall a maximum 20% in a day, double the 10% daily limit on other boards.

Regulators last week cautioned individual investors against “blindly” buying STAR Market stocks, but said big fluctuations were normal.

Looser trading rules were aimed at “giving market players adequate freedom in the game, accelerating the formation of equilibrium prices, and boosting price-setting efficiency,” the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) said in a statement on Friday.

The SSE added that it was normal to see big swings in newly listed tech shares, as such companies typically have uncertain prospects, and are difficult to evaluate.

The exchange cited big fluctuations in IPOs shares on Nasdaq and the Hong Kong stock exchange, in particular singling out recently listed electric car firm Nio Inc (NIO) and Chinese start-up Luckin Coffee (LK.O).

SSE said that an index tracking the STAR Market would be launched on the 11th trading day following the debut of the 30th company on the board.

MAIN BOARD DRAG

Investor focus on the STAR Market in the short term could weigh on the main board in terms of liquidity and attention, said Zhu Junchun, chief analyst with Lianxun Securities.

That effect was clear on Monday, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index .SSEC falling 1.27%, and the blue-chip CSI300 index .CSI300 ending 0.69% lower.

Dual-listed China Railway Signal & Communications Corp Ltd (688009.SS)(3969.HK) clearly illustrated the gap in investor enthusiasm. Its STAR Market shares more than doubled from their IPO price, even as its Hong Kong shares dropped more than 11% following worse-than-expected preliminary results.

Huang at Shanghai See Truth suggested rational investors wait on the sidelines and observe the market for a month, before making purchasing decisions.

Some investors, nevertheless, hailed the debut of the board that Beijing hopes will propel investment in the sector and help the country innovate and compete globally.

Yang Tingwu, vice general manager of Tongheng Investment, a hedge fund house in Fujian province, said he viewed 80% of listed companies as “cannon fodder”, but the chance of the remaining 20% producing China’s next Tencent (0700.HK) or Huawei made the market turmoil worth it.

“The STAR Market opens a new chapter for China’s stock market. Toast to the Chinese dream in our capital markets!”, he said.

Cina ha scalzato la World Bank e l’IMF, che adesso se ne stanno a girare i pollici.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-07-22.

Ogni anno, da trenta anni a questa parte, lo Spiegel ed i media occidentale piangono calde lacrime sulla terrifica crisi economica e finanziaria che avrebbe dovuto colpire entro pochi mesi la Cina, portandola alla catastrofe economica.

Tuttavia sono trenta anni consecutivi che le loro previsioni si rivelano essere del tutto fantasiose e sbagliate. Resta davvero difficile prestar loro ancora un qualche credito.

Non solo.

Rileggendo i loro articoli la prima cosa che salta agli occhi è il fatto che resta ben difficile comprendere di chi e cosa stiano parlando. I cinesi sono dipinti come il prototipo degli imbecilli, scriteriati ma, soprattutto, tetragoni a voler studiare ed applicare le teorie socio-politiche ed economiche dell’Occidente. Cosa nei fatti non vera, perché queste materie fanno parte dei corsi di storia politica ed economica: acqua passata.

In questo articolo, che alleghiamo in extenso, uno Spiegel sconsolato ed affranto deve constatare che la Cina è tuttora viva e vegeta, per quanto, a suo dire, sull’orlo della morte, e che essa ha scalzato la World Bank e l’International Monetary Fund,  i funzionari dei quali passano oramai il loro tempo a giocare a scacchi, ed ad esercitarsi nella nobile arte della trasgressione degenere, tanto per non pensare allo spettro del licenziamento.

* * * * * * *

Già.

La Cina è diventata il maggior elargitore di fondi a livello mondiale, surclassando quelle istituzioni internazionali nelle quali il geloso Occidente non voleva farli entrare.

«China is the largest creditor in the world, funding infrastructure projects in the developing world in exchange for access to raw materials»

«China, after all, isn’t just directly financing 70 percent of the new train lain, it is also building dams, schools, military hospitals and has even launched a communications satellite into space for the country»

«the multilateral Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank based in Beijing, a financial institution that China established as an alternative to Western development banks»

«China isn’t just the largest creditor in Laos, but in the entire world»

«the billions of dollars from China are a welcome contribution to helping many underdeveloped regions in Asia and Africa expand infrastructure»

«Secretary of State Mike Pompeo last summer warning of China’s “attempt to weaponize capital.”»

«Furthermore, little is actually known about the loans. China’s foreign assets are now worth $6 trillion, but outside of the government in Beijing, nobody knows much about where that money has been invested and what conditions and risks are attached»

«The data shows that many countries in the poorer regions of the world have accepted far more credit from China than previously known. And the loans frequently come with onerous conditions that are strongly oriented toward Beijing’s strategic interests»

«The West still hasn’t understood how profoundly China’s rise has changed the international financial system»

«China exports more capital to developing and emerging countries than all other industrialized countries put together»

«Whereas Western governments and multilateral organizations generally attach low interest rates and long repayment periods to their loans, China tends to impose short periods and higher rates»

«To ensure that the loans are paid back, the contracts guarantee Beijing a number of rights, such as access to foodstuffs, raw materials or the profits of state-owned companies in the recipient countries»

«the Chinese government directs the money straight to Chinese companies that have been contracted to build airports, ports or dams, an approach that creates a closed financial loop without the involvement of a single foreign account»

«more than 75 percent of the direct aid loans provided in recent years have come from two state-run financial institutions: the Export-Import Bank of China and the China Development Bank»

«China has developed a new form of development aid in which state loans are provided at commercial terms»

«the amount of foreign debt held by China is around 50 percent higher than is documented by official statistics»

«But there is no end in sight to the flow of Chinese credit. The economic advantages for China are simply too great, as are the political benefits, particularly in Africa»

«Around 1.5 million Chinese are thought to be living and working in Africa, a group that includes entrepreneurs, IT experts, technicians and merchants»

«They have expanded infrastructure in Africa at an impressive pace, building dams, airports, train lines and industrial parks across the continent. In return, China has secured access to natural resources and African markets»

«Many of the Chinese projects have been beneficial for the recipient countries, …. After all, many countries in Africa are in dire need of modern infrastructure.»

«the Chinese government is willing to make concessions on repayment deadlines should it become necessary»

«in 36 African countries, 63 percent view China’s engagement in a positive light»

«African rulers prefer cooperation with China in part because it isn’t linked to moral stipulations like those demanded, on paper at least, by Western governments»

«The Chinese don’t pay much attention to human rights or democratic principles and also tend to ignore environmental concerns and minimum labor standards»

«And they don’t have too many scruples when it comes to bribing politicians»

* * * * * * *

Cerchiamo di riassumere.

– I cinesi amano rapporti bilaterali, le condizioni dei quali variano d caso a caso ed anche nel tempo, secondo opportunità.

– Al contrario degli Occidentali, i cinesi non condizionano investimenti o all’imposizioni dei loro standard etici e morali:

non impongono la accettazione delle ngo, della conversione al credo lgbt, a sistemi di reggimento politico a suffragio universale, per non parlare poi dei ‘problemi ambientali’. Rispettano la controparte e non si immischiano nei loro affari interni.

– I Cinesi hanno dato prestiti per oltre 6,000 miliardi Usd. Nella loro quasi totalità, sono prestiti finalizzati alla erezione di infrastrutture redditizie oppure a supporto del comparto produttivo locale: si riservano una parte degli utili ed accordi commerciali per essere riforniti di materie prime a prezzi commerciali. Da questo punto di vista questi prestiti sono solidamente garantiti.

– Nel concedere il prestito, i cinesi si premurano che quando possibile tali fondi siano spesi dando appalti a ditte cinesi.

* * * * * * *

I cinesi hanno sempre avuto una acuta percezione del futuro. Se è vero che stanno finanziando in Africa molti stati al momento miseri, sarebbe altrettanto vero considerare che con i debiti aiuti tra una generazione questi stati saranno economicamente emersi, aprendo così ai cinesi un mercato semplicemente immenso e loro riconoscente.

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Spiegel. 2019-07-12. Vast Chinese Loans Pose Risks to Developing World

China is the largest creditor in the world, funding infrastructure projects in the developing world in exchange for access to raw materials. A new study shows that the risk of a new debt crisis is significant.

*

The future rail link cuts its way through the jungles of Laos for over 400 kilometers. Soon, trains will be rolling through — over bridges, through tunnels and across dams built just for the line, which runs from the Chinese border in the north to the Laotian capital of Vientiane on the Mekong River.

After five years of construction, the line is set to go into service in 2021. And the Chinese head of one of the sections has no doubt that it will be finished on time. “Our office alone employs 4,000 workers,” he says. There is also no lack of money: The Chinese government in Beijing has earmarked around 6 billion dollars for the project and has recently become both Laos’s largest creditor and most significant provider of development aid.

China, after all, isn’t just directly financing 70 percent of the new train lain, it is also building dams, schools, military hospitals and has even launched a communications satellite into space for the country. In April, Beijing loaned Laos another 40 million dollars for road construction — a credit that was provided through the multilateral Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank based in Beijing, a financial institution that China established as an alternative to Western development banks.

If Hong Kong is included, China isn’t just the largest creditor in Laos, but in the entire world. Beijing’s foreign loans dominate global markets almost to the same degree as its toys, smartphones and electric scooters do. From Kenya to Montenegro, from Ecuador to Djibouti, roads, dams and power plants are being built with billions in loans from Beijing. And all of those countries will have to pay back those loans in the years to come. With interest.

The flood of capital from China helped prevent the global economy from plunging into depression following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and the ensuing financial crisis. But it isn’t without controversy.

For some, the billions of dollars from China are a welcome contribution to helping many underdeveloped regions in Asia and Africa expand infrastructure. For others, the loans from Beijing have forced half the world into economic and political dependency on Beijing. Some have described the situation as “debt bondage,” while a group of U.S. senators wrote a letter to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo last summer warning of China’s “attempt to weaponize capital.”

A Lack of Transparency

Furthermore, little is actually known about the loans. China’s foreign assets are now worth $6 trillion, but outside of the government in Beijing, nobody knows much about where that money has been invested and what conditions and risks are attached. Because China doesn’t completely open its books to international organizations like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), there is a lack of needed transparency, says IMF head Christine Lagarde.

Now, though, with the release of a new study by a German-American team of academics under the leadership of Harvard professor Carmen Reinhart, Largarde will have a clearer picture. For months, the economists dug through both known and unknown source material, compiling the most comprehensive analysis yet of Chinese foreign loans. And the image that has resulted does nothing to assuage concerns about the financial power being exerted by Beijing.

On the contrary: The data shows that many countries in the poorer regions of the world have accepted far more credit from China than previously known. And the loans frequently come with onerous conditions that are strongly oriented toward Beijing’s strategic interests and increase the risk that many countries in the developing world could plunge into financial crisis. “The West still hasn’t understood how profoundly China’s rise has changed the international financial system,” says Christoph Trebesch, a co-author of the study from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

Sitting in a library in Hamburg, Trebesch scrolls through hundreds of lines of data on his laptop: loan periods, interest rates, intended purposes and collateral on almost 5,000 Chinese loans and aid payments to 152 countries. The information comes from almost a dozen databases that were compiled with the help of aid organizations, banks and the CIA.

Trebesch describes the process of compiling the information as “a kind of economic archeology.” The process involved him and his colleague Sebastian Horn analyzing the data and then comparing it with official sources to put together a comprehensive picture of China’s foreign assets — the kind of picture that Beijing, no doubt, would prefer to keep under wraps.

Closed Financial Loop

According to the study, China exports more capital to developing and emerging countries than all other industrialized countries put together. Moreover, numerous conditions are attached to the loans that weigh heavily on thier recipients.

Whereas Western governments and multilateral organizations generally attach low interest rates and long repayment periods to their loans, China tends to impose short periods and higher rates. To ensure that the loans are paid back, the contracts guarantee Beijing a number of rights, such as access to foodstuffs, raw materials or the profits of state-owned companies in the recipient countries. Frequently, the Chinese government directs the money straight to Chinese companies that have been contracted to build airports, ports or dams, an approach that creates a closed financial loop without the involvement of a single foreign account.

In addition, more than 75 percent of the direct aid loans provided in recent years have come from two state-run financial institutions: the Export-Import Bank of China and the China Development Bank. That means that the government is constantly informed of every phase of their aid projects and when crisis befalls creditor countries, China is well-positioned to grab its collateral ahead of other creditors. The study notes that China has developed a new form of development aid in which state loans are provided at commercial terms.

That can result in ugly conflicts when projects fail to proceed as planned. In Sri Lanka, for example, China took control of a port after the government ran into difficulties servicing its debt. In Ecuador, Beijing secured 80 percent of the country’s oil revenues to compensate for the costs associated with an enormous dam project. In Zambia, which owes China an estimated $6 billion, regime critics are concerned that Beijing will take over the state energy supplier Zesco.

Fears are also growing in South Africa, where President Cyril Ramaphosa is thought to have negotiated loans and subsidies worth 370 billion rand (the equivalent of around 24 billion euros) during a state visit to Beijing last fall. The opposition party Democratic Alliance is concerned that South Africa could become mired in a debt trap and that Beijing may, for example, take control of the struggling state-owned electric utility Eskom. The South African government, Ramaphosa insisted last fall, “is not in the habit of … handing over the assets of our country to any other country or entity.” The reference was clearly to China. To be sure, Western countries are not displeased that China, in many countries of the world, has taken over the role of scapegoat that was long played by the IMF or the United States. But they are nevertheless unsettled by the lengths Beijing goes to in its effort to conceal the true extent of its loans to the developing world.

Danger of Default

The German-American study outlines the scope of that attempt. It argues that many payments from Beijing are masked because they go straight to state-owned companies operating in recipient countries. The balance sheets of those companies, though, are frequently not accounted for in official financial statistics. The result is that a large chunk of Chinese development loans is concealed from Western governments and international organizations. The study found that the amount of foreign debt held by China is around 50 percent higher than is documented by official statistics.

The discrepancy is particularly large in those countries that are already heavily indebted. In Ivory Coast, for example, debt levels are $4 billion higher than previously thought. The difference in Angola is $14 billion and in Venezuela it is $33 billion. Because the Beijing government tends to charge high interest rates, many emerging and developing countries suffer, according to the study, from “growing annual debt service obligations.” That means their interest rate payments continue to rise, which increases the danger that they may ultimately default

Study authors note that the situation is reminiscent of the late 1970s, a time when large banks from the U.S., Europe and Japan provided billions in loans to Latin American and African countries rich in commodities — credits that flew under the radar of international monitoring agencies. When prices for many raw materials crashed, countries like Mexico could no longer service their debts and much of the developing world slid into a debt crisis that set them back for years.

Today, the situation is hardly any different. Once again, many developing countries have accepted huge loans. And once the hidden money flows from China are included, as the study shows, the debt loads being carried by many countries are again as high as they were in the 1980s. The authors write that the situation looks “strikingly similar.”

Already, there are initial indications of an approaching crisis. Pakistan was recently forced to apply for an emergency IMF loan because it was no longer able to service its massive Chinese debt load. In Sierra Leone, the government stopped the construction of an airport that China had intended to finance. Meanwhile, IMF Managing Director Lagarde hardly holds a speech in which she doesn’t mention the dangers facing global financial stability.

What Africa Needs

But there is no end in sight to the flow of Chinese credit. The economic advantages for China are simply too great, as are the political benefits, particularly in Africa.

Whereas the West has largely seen the continent as little more than a source of a steady stream of catastrophes, Beijing has viewed it as a place of untapped future potential. Around 1.5 million Chinese are thought to be living and working in Africa, a group that includes entrepreneurs, IT experts, technicians and merchants.

They have expanded infrastructure in Africa at an impressive pace, building dams, airports, train lines and industrial parks across the continent. In return, China has secured access to natural resources and African markets.

Beijing is delivering precisely what Africa needs, says Rwandan President Paul Kagame. He belongs to a growing number of African strongmen who are seeking to emulate the successful Chinese model of developmental autocracy, often with the support of their citizens. According to a survey conducted by the pollsters at Afrobarometer in 36 African countries, 63 percent view China’s engagement in a positive light.

African rulers prefer cooperation with China in part because it isn’t linked to moral stipulations like those demanded, on paper at least, by Western governments. The Chinese don’t pay much attention to human rights or democratic principles and also tend to ignore environmental concerns and minimum labor standards. And they don’t have too many scruples when it comes to bribing politicians.

Nevertheless, warnings that debt loads have become too high are growing louder in Africa as well. Not just because many projects have proven to be economically unviable, but also because China has been systematically underreporting its influence.

More Clarity

Whereas official Chinese government statistics often only list small loan totals, the real numbers are far higher, as the new study shows. The small country of Djibouti, for example, is carrying a Chinese debt load equivalent to 70 percent of its annual economic output. In Congo, it is 30 percent and in Kenya, 15 percent. It is vastly more than the governments owe to Western countries. Colonialism, made in China.

The situation isn’t likely to change any time soon. “Many of the Chinese projects have been beneficial for the recipient countries,” says Trebesch of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. After all, many countries in Africa are in dire need of modern infrastructure.

Furthermore, some recent studies from the U.S. have painted a less alarming picture of Chinese development loans. The economist Deborah Bräutigam of Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore found that of 17 African countries stuck in a debt crisis, only three of them received loans from Beijing. The analysts from Rhodium Group, meanwhile, argue that China is not nearly as heavy-handed as many believe. In examining 40 of Beijing’s projects, the institute found that the Chinese government is willing to make concessions on repayment deadlines should it become necessary.

Still, the frequency of such concessions would seem to indicate that the initial conditions imposed by China were far too strict. And the situation is a far cry from conforming to international standards of transparency regarding the size of the loans made by Beijing and the conditions attached.

That, in fact, is the primary improvement that Trabesch would like to see — namely that China finally provide more clarity about its financial activities in the developing world. Firstly, because the economic and political consequences of the loans would become more visible. Secondly, because it could help prevent the outbreak of a new debt crisis in the developing world.

After all, China would be directly exposed were that to happen.

Deutsche Bank. Taglia 18,000 posti ed accusa 7.4 (74 nei fatti) mld di perdite.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-07-08.

«Deutsche Bank plans to cut 18,000 jobs in a sweeping, 7.4 billion euro overhaul designed to turn around Germany’s struggling flagship lender»

«The bank will also scrap its global equities business and scale back its investment bank»

«It expects a 2.8 billion euro ($3.1 billion) net loss in the second quarter as a result of restructuring charges.»

«Deutsche said that it would also cut its fixed income operations, especially its rates business. It will also create a new unit to wind-down unwanted assets, with a value of 74 billion euros of risk-weighted assets»

* * * * * * *

Le banche tedesche continuano a tenere aperti gli sportelli solo perché aiutate dalla politica.

Quella di Deutsche Bank non è solo una riorganizzazione del lavoro con qualche esubero: è la conseguenza di continue perdite di mercato, cui conseguono attività bancarie sempre più contenute. Ed una inenarrabile quantità di operazioni sballate.

Settantaquattro miliardi di euro di “risk-weighted assets” è una gran cifra.

Così scenderà dagli attuali 91,500 dipendenti ai 74,000 del 2022.

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Una considerazione.

Quando la politica si impossessa di una realtà economica o finanziaria, quasi invariabilmente la porta alla rovina.

Se sicuramente adesso Deutsche Bank ha un perfetto equilibrio di gender, sarebbe altrettanto vero che i risultati di questa dirigenza femminile sono sotto gli occhi di tutti.

Ma i clienti bancari non sono scemi come potrebbe sembrare: utilizzano Deutsche Bank solo se costretti politicamente. Ma non accettano più consigli.

Quale peso possono avere i suggerimenti finanziari dati da funzionari che sono rimasti poveri se non miseri e che hanno quasi fatto fallire la banca?

Amici miei.

Se vi foste aspettati che i funzionari di banca vi facessero arricchire avreste sbagliato, ed alla grande.

Sceglietevi un consulente finanziario che abbia saputo arricchirsi con il suo lavoro: se si è arricchito lui saprà anche arricchire voi.

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Reuters. 2019-07-07. Deutsche Bank to cut 18,000 jobs in 7.4 billion euro overhaul

FRANKFURT (Reuters) – Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) plans to cut 18,000 jobs in a sweeping, 7.4 billion euro overhaul designed to turn around Germany’s struggling flagship lender.

The bank will also scrap its global equities business and scale back its investment bank. It expects a 2.8 billion euro ($3.1 billion) net loss in the second quarter as a result of restructuring charges.

Deutsche said that it would also cut its fixed income operations, especially its rates business. It will also create a new unit to wind-down unwanted assets, with a value of 74 billion euros of risk-weighted assets.

Chief Executive Officer Christian Sewing flagged an extensive restructuring in May when he promised shareholders “tough cutbacks” to the investment bank. The pledge came after Deutsche failed to agree a merger with rival Commerzbank (CBKG.DE).

Media reports had suggested that Deutsche Bank could cut as many as 20,000 jobs — more than one in five of its 91,500 employees.

In the event, the bank said it would reduce headcount to 74,000 employees by 2022.

The bank’s supervisory board met on Sunday to agree the proposed changes, one of the biggest shake-ups in the industry since the financial crisis.