Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Senza categoria, Stati Uniti

Joe Biden. Indice di approvazione Rasmussen -31%. Il migliore alleato dei repubblicani.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-01-15.

2022-01-15__ Rasmussen 001

                         In sintesi.

– 18% who Strongly Approve of the job Biden

– 49% who Strongly Disapprove

* * * * * * *

Joe Biden si conferma quale migliore alleato dei repubblicani.

Intanto le elezioni di midterm si stanno avvicinando.

E, come diceva Napoleone, mai fermare un avversario che stia facendo errori.

* * * * * * *


Daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, …. for Friday shows that 38% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Biden’s job performance. Sixty percent (60%) disapprove.

The latest figures include 18% who Strongly Approve of the job Biden is doing and 49% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -31. 

Some readers wonder how we come up with our job approval ratings for the president since they often don’t show as dramatic a change as some other pollsters do. It depends on how you ask the question and whom you ask.

To get a sense of longer-term job approval trends for the president, Rasmussen Reports compiles our tracking data on a full month-by-month basis.

Rasmussen Reports has been a pioneer in the use of automated telephone polling techniques, but many other firms still utilize their own operator-assisted technology (see methodology).

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 2.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Pubblicato in: Senza categoria

Virginia. Analisi di un Elettorato mutato, contagioso per tutta la America. Midterm è vicino.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-11-04.

Biden 014

Fino a un mese fa i liberal democratici davano per scontato che la Virginia sarebbe rimasta una roccaforte democratica.

Ma questa sensazione è risultata essere non corroborata dai fatti.

È stata una ulteriore débâcle di Joe Biden che viene a seguito di quella della perdita del controllo  in seno alla Assemblea delle Nazioni Unite, quella al G20, ed quella prossima ventura a Cop26, da cui il carbone fossile esce più vitale che mai.

I risultati della Virginia sono la bocciatura totale e senza appello di questa presidenza.

Poi, se i democratici avessero fatto il sondaggio in calce riportato prima delle elezioni, verosimilmente ne avrebbero tratto grande vantaggio.

Il clou è l’ultima domanda, sullo stato economico della Virginia, giudicato negativamente dal 76% degli Elettori repubblicani ma anche dal 24% di quelli democratici. La stagflazione inizia a mordere i lavoratori.

Joe Biden si è giocato i risultati delle elezioni di mezzo termine.

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Pubblicato in: Senza categoria

Elezioni. Exit poll alle 15-31.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-10-04. h 15:31.

Elezioni 001

               Exit poll Rai – Trieste: Dipiazza è al 46-50%

Trieste, l’exit poll del Consorzio Opinio Italia per Rai: il sindaco uscente di centrodestra, Roberto Dipiazza, è al 46-50% mentre il candidato di centrosinistra Francesco Russo è al 29-33%. Alessandra Richetti (M5s) è al 2-4%, Riccardo Laterza è al 9-13%.

               Exit Poll Opinio – In Calabria vince Occhiuto

Alle regionali in Calabria, secondo il primo exit poll di consorzio Opinio Italia per Rai, il candidato di centrodestra Roberto Occhiuto è in testa con il 46,5-50,5%, a seguire la candidata di centrosinistra Amalia Cecilia Bruni 24-28%. Luigi de Magistris è al 21-25% mentre Mario Oliverio è al 1,5-3,5%.

               Exit poll Rai – Milano: Sala tra 54 e 58%

Milano, il primo Exit poll del consorzio Opinio Italia per la Rai: Giuseppe Sala raggiunge una forchetta del 54-58%, seguito da Luca Bernardo (centrodestra) con il 32-36%. Seguono Layla Pavone (M5s) e Gianluigi Paragone, entrambi con una forchetta del 2-4%.

               Exit Poll Opinio – A Bologna vittoria di Lepore

A Bologna, stando al primo exit poll del consorzio Opinio per la Rai, Matteo Lepore, sostenuto da Pd e M5s, si avvia verso una larga vittoria: è accreditato del 61-65% dei voti. Il candidato del centrodestra Fabio Battistini si ferma al 26,5-30,5%, terza Marta Collot (Potere al Popolo) con il 2-4%.

               Exit Poll Opinio – A Torino centrosinistra avanti

Il primo exit poll del consorzio Opinio per la Rai (80% copertura del campione) dà il candidato del centrosinistra Stefano Lorusso avanti con il 44-48% dei voti. Paolo Damilano (centrodestra) viaggia tra il 36,5 e il 40,5 per cento. Terza Valentina Sganga (M5s) con il 7-9 per cento.

               Exit Poll Rai – Napoli: Manfredi al 57-61%

Anche a Napoli il candidato del M5s-Pd Gaetano Manfredi va verso la vittoria al primo turno. Gli exit poll Rai: Manfredi tra il 57 e il 61%, Maresca (centrodestra) 19-23%, Bassolino 9-13%, Clemente 5,5-7,5%.

               Tendenze Swg – Milano: Sala verso vittoria al primo turno

Beppe Sala verso la vittoria al primo turno a Milano, secondo le tendenze Swg. Gli exit poll Rai stimano il sindaco uscente tra il 54 e il 58%

               Tendenze Swg – Roma verso il ballottaggio

A Roma si va verso il ballottaggio, stando alle tendenze di Swg per La7. Il confronto tra due settimane sarebbe tra Michetti (29-30%) e Gualtieri (27-28%). Calenda e Raggi sono accreditati di circa il 18%.

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Buffett Indicator ai massimi storici 243. L’occidente finanzia la Cina.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-06.

2021-09-05__ Buffett Indicator 001

Gli stati dell’enclave liberal socialista occidentali sono in stagflazione: evidenziano inflazione e ristagno economico.

Usa. Nonfarm Payrolls 253,000. La débâcle economica di Joe Biden.

Europa. Luglio21. PPI, industrial producer prices, +12.2% su Luglio 2020. Inflazione a due cifre.

Mondo. La catena degli approvvigionamenti continua a peggiorare.

* * *

Le banche centrali, Fed ed Ecb, stanno continuando ad inondare i sistemi economici di immani quantità di liquidità, che finiscono nelle mani degli addetti ai lavori e poco o nulla alla produzione, che ha dimostrato essere incapace di generare posti di lavoro.

Queste liquidità confluiscono quindi in Cina.

«Nel luglio 2021 gli investimenti esteri in Cina sono cresciuti del +25%, paragonati al luglio 2020»

Multiplying Crackdowns Haven’t Stopped Cash Pouring Into China.

* * *

In ultima analisi, l’occidente finanzia, e generosamente, il continuo sviluppo della Cina.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Geopolitica Asiatica, Senza categoria, Stati Uniti

Afganistan. La débâcle americana è peggio del Vietnam. È devoluzione dell’America.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-16.

Afganistan 001

La decisione di Joe Biden di abbandonare l’Afganistan esula dal fatto contingente: è la constatazione che gli Stati Uniti non sono più, ovvero non vogliono più, essere una grande potenza mondiale politica, economica e militare.

Per decenni hanno creduto di poter gestire le guerre per procura, e che la loro potenza aerea e marittima le consentissero di dominare il mondo.

Questo assunto si è dimostrato essere falso, incominciando dal Vietnam.

In Afganistan aviazione e marina non servono a nulla.

Non è questione il dibattito, sterile, su chi abbia avuto per primo l’idea di lasciare l’Afganistan: fatto sì è che Biden è fuggito da quel paese senza essersi prima assicurato uno stato ed un esercito locale degno di quel nome. La situazione era infatti diventata insostenibile. Il suo esercito femminilizzato ha perso la volontà di combattere ed i problemi economici e sociali in patria sono ingravescenti.

Ma questo è solo l’ultimo degli errori fatti.

Per motivazioni ideologiche hanno tentato di esportare un reggimento democratico in un paese la mentalità del quale gli è aliena: è un paese tribale e mussulmano. Un esperimento destinato a fallire per definizione.

È patognomonico il fatto che i media occidentali riportino non quanto accade in Afganistan dal punto di vista degli afgani, bensì cose ne pensa la loro ideologia: nessuno sforzo per cercare di capire quella mentalità.

* * * * * * *

«The rout of Afghan forces as Taliban fighters take one provincial city after another provides a stark answer to anyone wondering about the success of two decades of U.S.-led efforts to build a local army»

«Despite about $89 billion budgeted for training the Afghan army, it took the Taliban little more than a month to brush it aside»

«They now stand almost at the gates of Kabul»

«But still, there has been shock at the lack of resistance put up by many Afghan army units»

«because they believed defeat was unavoidable»

«Once morale goes, it spreads very quickly»

«American officers have long worried that rampant corruption, well documented in parts of Afghanistan’s military and political leadership, would undermine the resolve of badly paid, ill-fed and erratically supplied front-line soldiers – some of whom have been left for months or even years on end in isolated outposts»

«Would you give your life for leaders who don’t pay you on time and are more interested in their own future?»

«The defeat highlights the failure of the United States to create a fighting force in the image of its own highly professional military with a motivated, well-trained leadership, high-tech weaponry and seamless logistical support»

«But whether it was ever a realistic goal to create a Western-style army in one of the world’s poorest countries, with a literacy rate of 40% and a social and political culture far from the developed sense of nationhood underpinning the U.S. military, is an open question»

* * * * * * *

Gli Stati Uniti stanno lentamente ma implacabilmente devolvendosi.

Certamente sono e rimarranno una grande potenza nucleare, ma il loro esercito rispecchia fedelmente la società americana.

Facciamoci infine una domanda. Chi ha finanziato, addestrato, armato e coperto politicamente il movimento talebano? Ebbene, costoro sono i veri vincitori.

* * * * * * *

Taliban surge exposes failure of U.S. efforts to build Afghan army

Aug 15 (Reuters) – The rout of Afghan forces as Taliban fighters take one provincial city after another provides a stark answer to anyone wondering about the success of two decades of U.S.-led efforts to build a local army.

Despite about $89 billion budgeted for training the Afghan army, it took the Taliban little more than a month to brush it aside. Over the last few days, the insurgents have seized every major city in Afghanistan – from Kandahar in the south to Mazar-i-Sharif in the north, Herat in the west to Jalalabad in the east.

They now stand almost at the gates of Kabul.

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani praised Afghan security and defense forces in a brief televised address on Saturday, saying they had “a strong spirit to defend their people and country.”

But still, there has been shock at the lack of resistance put up by many Afghan army units. Some abandoned their posts and others reached agreements with the Taliban to stop fighting and hand over their weapons and equipment.

In some instances, U.S. officials say, provincial governors asked security forces to surrender or escape, perhaps in order to avoid further bloodshed because they believed defeat was unavoidable.

Where deals were not cut, Afghan forces still appear to have melted away.

“Once morale goes, it spreads very quickly, and that is at least partly to blame,” a U.S. official said.

American officers have long worried that rampant corruption, well documented in parts of Afghanistan’s military and political leadership, would undermine the resolve of badly paid, ill-fed and erratically supplied front-line soldiers – some of whom have been left for months or even years on end in isolated outposts, where they could be picked off by the Taliban.

Over many years, hundreds of Afghan soldiers were killed each month. But the army fought on, without any of the airborne evacuation of casualties and expert surgical care standard in Western armies, as long as international backing was there. Once that went, their resolve evaporated.

“Would you give your life for leaders who don’t pay you on time and are more interested in their own future?” a second U.S. official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, asked.

It is an analysis shared by some in the Taliban movement itself.

One Taliban commander in the central province of Ghazni said the government forces’ collapse started as soon as U.S. forces started withdrawing “as they didn’t have any ideology except fleecing the Americans.”

“The only reason for this unexpected fall of provinces was our commitment and the withdrawal of U.S. troops,” he said.

‘REALISTIC’

The defeat highlights the failure of the United States to create a fighting force in the image of its own highly professional military with a motivated, well-trained leadership, high-tech weaponry and seamless logistical support.

On paper, Afghan security forces numbered around 300,000 soldiers. In reality, the numbers were never that high.

Dependent on a small number of elite Special Forces units that were shunted from province to province as more cities fell to the Taliban, the already high rate of desertion in the regular army soared.

As government forces started to fall apart, hastily recruited local militias, loyal to prominent regional leaders such as Marshal Abdul Rashid Dostum in the northern province of Faryab or Ismail Khan in Herat, also rushed in to fight.

Western countries had long been wary of such militias. Though more in line with the realities of traditional Afghan politics where personal, local or ethnic ties outweigh loyalty to the state, they were also open to corruption and abuse and ultimately proved no more effective than conventional forces.

Dostum fled to Uzbekistan as the Taliban advanced and Khan surrendered to the insurgents.

But whether it was ever a realistic goal to create a Western-style army in one of the world’s poorest countries, with a literacy rate of 40% and a social and political culture far from the developed sense of nationhood underpinning the U.S. military, is an open question.

U.S. army trainers who worked with Afghan forces struggled to teach the basic lesson of military organization that supplies, maintaining equipment and ensuring units get proper support are key to battlefield success.

Jonathan Schroden, an expert at the CNA policy institute, who served as an advisor to U.S. central command CENTCOM and the U.S.-led international force in Afghanistan, said the Afghan army functioned as much as a “jobs program” as a fighting force “because it’s the source of a paycheck in a country where paychecks are hard to come by.”

But the chronic failure of logistical, hardware and manpower support to many units, meant that “even if they want to fight, they run out of the ability to fight in relatively short order.”

Afghan forces have been forced repeatedly to give up after pleas for supplies and reinforcements went unanswered, either because of incompetence or the simple incapacity of the system to deliver.

Even the elite Special Forces units that have borne the brunt of the fighting in recent years have suffered. Last month, at least a dozen commandos were executed by Taliban fighters in the northern province of Faryab after running out of ammunition and being forced to surrender.

Richard Armitage, the former U.S. diplomat who organized a flotilla of South Vietnamese Navy ships to carry some 30,000 refugees out of Saigon before it fell in April 1975, has watched as the threat of a similar disaster unfolds in Kabul.

As deputy Secretary of State under former President George W. Bush when the United States invaded in 2001, he was deeply involved in Afghanistan diplomacy. He said the Afghan army’s collapse pointed to the wider failures of two decades of international efforts.

“I hear people expressing frustration in the press that the Afghan army can’t fight a long fight,” he said. “I can assure you the Afghan army has fought, can fight and if it’s got a trigger and something comes out of the barrel, they can use it.”

“The question is, is this government worth fighting for?” he said.

Pubblicato in: Senza categoria

Germania. Sondaggi Elettorali da incubo. Cdu al 23%. Merkeldämmerung.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-12.

2021-08-12__ Germania Sondaggi 001

Nelle ultime elezioni regionali le previsioni elettorali hanno sbagliato clamorosamente le previsioni, motivo per cui riportiamo i dati odierni per dovere di cronaca.

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Germania: crolla Unione, Spd mai così forte da tre anni

Sondaggio, i conservatori al 23%, i socialdemocratici al 19%

A sei settimane circa dalle elezioni che apriranno il dopo Merkel, crollano i consensi dei conservatori della Cdu-Csu in Germania: stando al sondaggio Forsa, l’Unione di Armin Laschet perde tre punti nel giro di sette giorni e precipita al 23%, mentre recuperano terreno, per la prima volta in modo davvero significativo, i socialdemocratici del vicecancelliere Olaf Scholz, che arrivano al 19% (+3), il valore migliore raggiunto dall’aprile del 2018. I Verdi della candidata Annalena Baerbock restano al 20%.

Pubblicato in: Senza categoria

UK. Public Health England. Le nuove infezioni da Covid nel 44.9% dei vaccinati.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-11.

2021-08-11 UK Detla Variant 001

Il Public Health England

«We exist to protect and improve the nation’s health and wellbeing, and reduce health inequalities.

PHE is an executive agency, sponsored by the Department of Health and Social Care

è organo ufficiale del Governo del Regno Unito.

* * * * * * *

Usa. Cdc. Massachusetts. Il 74% dei nuovi infettati da Covid erano già stati vaccinati.

Pochi giorni or sono il Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, CDC, organo ufficiale degli Stati Uniti, ha pubblicato il 6 agosto il seguente Report:

Outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 Infections, Including COVID-19 Vaccine Breakthrough Infections, Associated with Large Public Gatherings — Barnstable County, Massachusetts, July 2021

«346 (74%) occurred in fully vaccinated persons»

Adesso anche il Public Health England, organo ufficiale del Governo del Regno Unito, conferma questo risultato

Confirmed cases of COVID-19 variants identified in UK

«It shows that Delta is still overwhelmingly dominant across the UK, accounting for approximately 99% of cases. The briefing includes updated hospitalisation data for Delta, which shows that in the period since the last update on 19 July, 1,467 people were hospitalised with cases of Delta confirmed by sequencing or genotyping. Of these, 808 (55.1%) were unvaccinated, while 512 (34.9%) had received both doses of the vaccine. While vaccines provide high levels of protection, they are not 100% effective and will not stop everyone catching COVID-19. As more of the population gets vaccinated, we will see a higher relative percentage of vaccinated people in hospital.»

* * * * * * *

Cerchiamo di ragionare deponendo ogni idea preconcetta.

– I vaccini anti-Covid sono stati allestiti a tempi di record, ed hanno svolto in gran parte i compiti da loro attesi.

– Il Covid è un virus che presenta numerose mutazioni, sulle quali gli attuali vaccini forniscono solo una resistenza molto parziale, meglio che il nulla, ma pur sempre non ottimale.

– L’idea che il vaccino sia la panacea è semplicemente un pensiero coatto, del tutto avulso dalla realtà dei fatti.

– In particolare, la demonizzazione delle persone non vaccinate e le restrizioni loro imposte, è frutto di una ideologia tirannica.

* * *

«we will see a higher relative percentage of vaccinated people in hospital»

«This may have implications for people’s infectiousness, whether they have been vaccinated or not»

Pubblicato in: Senza categoria

Usa. Inflazione. Media liberal riportano dati spesso di incomprensibile provenienza.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-06.

2021-08-02__ Bea 001

Riportiamo in fotocopia la parte di interesse del Report dell’U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2021 (Advance Estimate) and Annual Update.

Lo U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis è l’unica autorità cui compete il calcolo e la divulgazione di questa tipologia di risultati.

Da questa si evincono i seguenti macrodati:

– «The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 5.7 percent in the second quarter»

– «The PCE price index increased 6.4 percent»

– «Current-dollar personal income decreased $1.32 trillion in the second quarter, or 22.0 percent»

– «Disposable personal income decreased $1.42 trillion, or 26.1 percent, in the second quarter»

– «Real disposable personal income decreased 30.6 percent, in contrast to an increase of 57.6 percent.»

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Ma la corsa ai Tips dovrebbe contarla lunga.

Poi, quando il reddito personale disponibile reale è diminuito del 30.6% sembrerebbe che la gente non sia poi così allegra come la si vorrebbe dipingere. Se infatti esistono gli investitori, grandi o piccoli che siano, sarebbe altrettanto vero ricordarsi come più della metà degli americani non abbia risorse da investire in borsa. Questi ultimi sono la carne da cannone per l’inflazione.

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«Investors pour $3.2bn into inflation-protected US Treasuries»

«Relentless Tips flow distorts signals from government debt market»

«Investors poured a record $3.2bn into funds investing in US inflation-linked bonds last week, adding to a deluge of cash this year which some analysts say is distorting signals from the government debt market»

«The yield on 10-year inflation-protected US Treasuries, also known as Tips, has plumbed new depths this week, hitting an all-time low of minus 1.17 per cent on Friday»

«others have argued that market pricing has turned too pessimistic»

«Technical factors, which is where you put things that you can’t quite explain»

«he inflow recorded in the week to July 28 is the highest ever, according to analysts at Bank of America, representing 1.9 per cent of the total assets in Tips funds covered by fund tracker EPFR»

«The Tips market is just a less liquid market so it’s more liable to distortions»

«Inflation prints are up at around 4 or 5 per cent, and we don’t know how long it’s going to continue»

«The surge in prices is largely tied to the reopening of the economy and widespread shortages of supplies and labor spawned»

«Adding to the problem is a surprising shortage of labor»

«Millions of people still haven’t returned to work even with job openings at a record high»

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U.S. inflation surges again in June, PCE shows, as shortages plague economy

The rate of inflation has climbed 4% in the past year, the highest level in 13 years.

The numbers: Inflation in the U.S. rose sharply again in June and the increase over the past year remained at a 13-year high, raising the cost of living for consumers and casting a shadow over a strong economic recovery.

The so-called PCE price index rose a sharp 0.5% in June, government figures show.

It was the fourth big upturn in a row and kept the increase over the past 12 months at 4%. That’s the highest level since 2008 and double the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

A separate measure of inflation, the consumer price index, is running even hotter.

The surge in prices is largely tied to the reopening of the economy and widespread shortages of supplies and labor spawned by the pandemic. Americans are spending gobs of money and getting out and about, but businesses can’t keep up with all the demand.

The PCE index is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.

Big picture: The economy is growing rapidly, but there’s a big mismatch between how much customers want to buy and how much businesses can produce. That yawning divide is what’s triggered the surge in inflation.

The biggest hurdle is a lack of key business supplies such as computer chips. These shortages have driven up prices and put pressure on companies to pass the costs onto customers.

Adding to the problem is a surprising shortage of labor. Millions of people still haven’t returned to work even with job openings at a record high. Some companies have had to boost wages or reduce hours to cope with the labor shortage.

The Federal Reserve has said for months inflation would subside as the bottlenecks eased and the central bank is sticking to that view. Yet Chairman Jerome Powell finally acknowledged on Thursday that what he’s called “transitory” inflation could stay high longer than the Fed had anticipated, perhaps well into next year.

The central bank has vastly underestimated the increase in inflation in 2021. Last December it was forecasting just a 1.8% increase.

Key details: The increase in inflation this year got its start from rising oil prices, but the cost of many goods and services are going up.

A separate measure of inflation that strips out volatile food and energy prices as climbed to the highest level since 1992. The core PCE price index rose 0.4% in June, a touch below Wall Street’s forecast.

The increase over the past 12 months crept up to 3.5% from 3.4%, but it appears to show signs of moderating. The core measure is viewed by the Fed as a better indicator of underlying inflation.

What they are saying? “Price pressures should abate over coming months as supply chain dislocations ease and the reopening effect fades,” said chief U.S. economist Rubeela Farooqi of High Frequency Economics.

“Core prices are still running hot but have decelerated in the past two months,” said senior economist Sal Guatieri of BMO Capital Markets. “This will give the Fed some comfort in its transitory story.”

Investors appear to have taken a wait-and-see approach on inflation. Stocks are still rising and yields on U.S. Treasurys bonds have actually declined over the past few months.

* * *


US consumers boost spending 1% as inflation remains high

American consumers increased their spending by 1% in June — a dose of energy for an economy that is quickly rebounding from the pandemic recession but is facing new risks led by the delta variant of the coronavirus.

Washington — American consumers increased their spending by 1% in June — a dose of energy for an economy that is quickly rebounding from the pandemic recession but is facing new risks led by the delta variant of the coronavirus.

At the same time, a key inflation barometer that is closely followed by the Federal Reserve surged 3.5% last month from a year earlier. That was the fastest such 12-month surge since 1991.

June’s solid increase in consumer spending provided further evidence that consumers are driving a strengthening recovery from the pandemic recession.

Friday’s report from the Commerce Department also showed that personal incomes, which provide the fuel for spending, edged up 0.1% in June after two months of big declines, reflecting the waning of several government support programs.

In its report on consumer spending in June, the government said that goods purchases rose a modest 0.5%, while spending on services increased a stronger 1.2%. As vaccinations have increased and the economy has increasingly reopened, more Americans have been shifting their spending away from the physical goods that many purchased while hunkered down at home to to spending on services, from haircuts to airline tickets to restaurant meals.

As a whole, household spending has been powering a robust economic recovery from the pandemic recession. On Thursday, the government estimated that the economy grew at a solid 6.5% annual rate last quarter — and consumer spending drove much of the gain: It advanced at an powerful 11.8% annual rate in the April-June quarter as more Americans left home to shop, travel and eat out.

The rise in spending has fueled businesses’ need for workers, and in many cases they can’t find enough people to fill jobs. Still, last month, America’s employers added a robust 850,000 jobs, and average hourly pay rose a solid 3.6% compared with a year earlier, faster than the pre-pandemic annual pace.

Yet the economy’s prospects are now clouded by the threat of a resurgent coronavirus in the form of the highly contagious delta variant. The U.S. is now averaging about 67,000 confirmed new cases a day, up from only about 12,000 a month ago. Should a surge in viral infections cause many consumers to retreat back to their homes and pull back on spending, it would weaken the recovery.

But many analysts say they think any economic damage inflicted by the delta variant will be offset by consumers still eager to spend some of the savings they accumulated during the pandemic lockdowns. The savings rate in June — 9.4% of after-tax incomes — represents a high level compared with pre-pandemic rates. During the months of lockdowns, households cut back on their debt and accumulated a hefty $2.5 trillion in savings.

“Consumers have very strong balance sheets coming out of the pandemic, which will fuel strong consumer spending and economic growth in the next few years,” said Bill Adams, senior economist at PNC Financial. He noted that the surge in COVID-19 cases was occurring primarily in Southern states that are less likely to re-impose restrictions on businesses.

Adams said he believed that continued strong consumer spending in the second half of the year would increase economic expansion for the year as a whole to around 6.6%. That would mark the strongest calendar-year growth since the mid-1980s.

At the same time, though, rising inflation poses another risk to optimistic forecasts. The inflation index that showed a 3.5% rise year-over-year for June — an index that the Fed monitors most closely — excludes volatile food and energy prices. A separate price index that includes all such items rose by an even larger 4% over the past 12 months. That was the largest such increase since 2008.

But at a news conference this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell underscored his belief that recent inflation readings reflect mainly temporary price spikes in a narrow range of categories — from used cars and airline tickets to hotel rooms and auto rentals — that have been distorted by supply shortages related to the economy’s swift reopening. Those shortages involve items like furniture, appliances, clothing and computer chips, among others.

“Price pressures should abate over coming months as supply-chain dislocations ease,” agreed Rubeela Faroqui, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.

The Biden administration is predicting that consumers will keep spending and provide vital support for the economy for the rest of this year, even as trillions of dollars in government support wind down.

Many outside economists agree. Millions of households will continue to receive child tax credit payments that have begun to be distributed. And many affluent households have benefited from a vast increase in their wealth resulting from surging home equity and stock market gains and seem inclined to spend some portion of it.

The economy is also receiving substantial support from the Fed. This week, the central bank reaffirmed that it will maintain its key short-term interest rate at a record low near zero to keep short-term borrowing costs low. It will also continue to buy government-backed bonds to put downward pressure on long-term loan rates to encourage borrowing and spending.

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Investors pour $3.2bn into inflation-protected US Treasuries

Relentless Tips flow distorts signals from government debt market.

Investors poured a record $3.2bn into funds investing in US inflation-linked bonds last week, adding to a deluge of cash this year which some analysts say is distorting signals from the government debt market. The yield on 10-year inflation-protected US Treasuries, also known as Tips, has plumbed new depths this week, hitting an all-time low of minus 1.17 per cent on Friday. The collapse has come amid a global debt rally which has left investors searching for explanations. While some worry that very low real yields — which measures the returns investors can expect once inflation is taken into account — are warning of a sharp slowdown in growth as the Delta coronavirus variant spreads, others have argued that market pricing has turned too pessimistic as the US economy continues its strong rebound. They have pointed to technical factors in markets to explain the rally, although this idea was rejected by Jay Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, on Wednesday. “Technical factors, which is where you put things that you can’t quite explain,” he quipped about the rally in government debt after the Federal Open Market Committee ended its latest meeting. The relentless flows in Tips — a relatively small and illiquid asset class compared with the wider Treasury market — may be “distorting” the economic signal from real yields, according to Salman Ahmed, global head of macro and strategic asset allocation at Fidelity International. “Is the level of real yields telling us something worrying about the macro environment? I’m not so sure,” Ahmed said. “Given the size of the flows, I’m not sure you can take the economic signal at face value.” The inflow recorded in the week to July 28 is the highest ever, according to analysts at Bank of America, representing 1.9 per cent of the total assets in Tips funds covered by fund tracker EPFR. Inflows so far this year total 16.6 per cent of assets under management in these funds.

Investors have also blamed quiet summer trading conditions and continued bond purchases by the Fed and other central banks for the rally. Those factors, along with inflows from investors, may be particularly pertinent for Tips, according to ING strategist Antoine Bouvet. “The Tips market is just a less liquid market so it’s more liable to distortions,” he said, adding that a succession of very high inflation readings in the US is likely continuing to fuel demand for Tips. “Inflation prints are up at around 4 or 5 per cent, and we don’t know how long it’s going to continue. It’s a risk that a lot of investors will want to hedge.” Hefty inflows into inflation-linked bonds may also help explain why real yields are apparently flashing a warning signal about the economy at a time when other asset classes appear more upbeat, Ahmed said. The S&P 500 index closed near its all-time high on Thursday. Gold, which typically benefits from low real rates and concerns about inflation, has fallen back to $1,828 a troy ounce, from its high for the year of $1,916 in May.

Pubblicato in: Senza categoria

Francia. Elezioni Regionali. Primi Exit polls ancora molto parziali.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-06-27.

Gufo_019__

Exit polls: French far right beaten in regional elections

«Polling agency estimations indicate that mainstream candidates have delivered a stinging setback to France’s far right in regional elections on Sunday, thwarting its hopes of winning control of a region for the first time.

The Ifop polling agency estimated that the far right National Rally barely surpassed 20% of the vote nationally, trailing both the mainstream right and the combined weight of green and leftist candidates.

Polling agency estimates also suggest that the National Rally was roundly beaten in the southeast, in the region that had been seen as its best chance of securing a breakthrough victory in the regional balloting.

If confirmed by official results, the National Rally’s failure to win any of mainland France’s 12 regions threatens to slow the momentum of its candidate, Marine Le Pen, in her campaign for the presidential elections next year. …..

The left currently heads five of the 12 mainland regions while the mainstream right runs seven.»

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Exit polls show French far-right loses regional vote in key southern battleground

Exit polls showed France’s far-right party headed for defeat in Sunday’s election for the southeastern Provence-Alpes-Cote d’Azur (PACA) region, its best hope for securing a local powerbase, with the incumbent centre-right projected to win.

The region had been seen as the far-right Rassemblement National’s best prospect for bringing credibility to leader Marine Le Pen’s claim that it is fit for power ahead of next year’s presidential election.

An exit poll by IFOP showed the far-right winning 44.2% of the run-off vote in PACA compared to 55.8% for the mainstream conservatives. A second survey by Opinionway showed the far-right taking 45% of the vote compared to 55% for its rivals.

In another key battleground in Sunday’s regional elections, the northern Hauts-de-France region, exit polls showed the centre-right ticket headed by conservative Xavier Bertrand, another contender for the 2022 presidential vote, headed for a comfortable victory over the far-right.

If the projections are confirmed, they will raise questions over how successful Le Pen’s strategy of softening the image of her anti-immigration euro-sceptic party to try to eat into the traditional right’s vote has been.

Even so, analysts say the apparent failure of Le Pen and her party to win in two of its strongholds should not be extrapolated on to next year’s presidential election.

Voter turnout in the country’s 13 regions was very low and voters typically have little affinity with their regional administrations that are responsible for promoting economic development, transport and high schools.

Pubblicato in: Senza categoria

Turkia. Scoperto un nuovo giacimento di gas naturale nel Mar Nero.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-06-10.

2021-06-08__ Turkia gas 001

Lo scorso anno la Turkia aveva annunciato la scoperta nelle sue acque territoriali nel Mr Nero di un giacimento di gas naturale di capienza stimata essere 405 miliardi di metri cubi.

Turkia. Giacimento Sakarya contiene 405 miliardi metri cubi di gas, non 320.

Turkia. Scoperto nel Mar Nero un giacimento di gas, Tuna-1, da 320 miliardi di m3.

Di questi giorni l’annuncio di un nuovo ritrovamento di ga naturale all’Amasra-1 offshore, stimato essere da 135 miliardi di metri cubi.

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«President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced the discovery of new natural gas deposits in the Black Sea, where Turkey plans to start production in 2023»

«State energy company Tpao found 135 billion cubic meters of gas at the Amasra-1 offshore well, bringing the total amount of deposits discovered over the past year to 540 billion cubic meters»

«Officials have said Tpao is planning to develop the deposits on its own, and won’t need foreign financing»

«Erdogan has pitched recent energy finds as a solution to some of Turkey’s long-term economic vulnerabilities, including its energy-import bill that needs to be paid in foreign currency»

«Turkey currently imports nearly all of the 50 billion cubic meters of gas it consumes annually»

* * * * * * *

La verità ama celarsi nei particolari.

«Tpao is planning to develop the deposits on its own»

L’attuale Turkia dispone di personale, strutture e know-how propri, e non necessita quindi di ricorrere a tecnologie e società estere.

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Turkey has discovered more natural gas in Black Sea, Erdogan says

Natural gas discoveries are expected to allow Turkey to import cheaper gas and trim its average annual energy bill, which is about $44bn.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced the discovery of new natural gas deposits in the Black Sea, where Turkey plans to start production in 2023.

State energy company Tpao found 135 billion cubic meters of gas at the Amasra-1 offshore well, bringing the total amount of deposits discovered over the past year to 540 billion cubic meters, Erdogan said in televised remarks from the Black Sea coastal city of Zonguldak.

No independent audit of total and recoverable gas at either of the finds in the so-called Sakarya field has been made available by authorities. Officials have said Tpao is planning to develop the deposits on its own, and won’t need foreign financing.

Turkey has ramped up exploration for oil and gas off its coasts in recent years. Erdogan has pitched recent energy finds as a solution to some of Turkey’s long-term economic vulnerabilities, including its energy-import bill that needs to be paid in foreign currency.

Turkish explorers last year found 405 billion cubic meters of gas at the nearby Tuna-1 well in Sakarya field, the biggest ever discovery in the Black Sea.

Turkey currently imports nearly all of the 50 billion cubic meters of gas it consumes annually. Officials expect domestic production to boost the nation’s gas demand by 60%, to as much as 80 billion cubic meters per year by 2030.

Discoveries are also expected to allow Turkey to import cheaper gas and trim the annual average energy bill of around $44 billion.