Ukraina. Buio, gelo e fame. Fede incrollabile nella vittoria finale. Come a Berlino nel 1945.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-11-27.

La storia si ripete implacabile.

Nel 1945 i tedeschi asserragliati a Berlino proclamavano la loro fede incrollabile nella vittoria finale. Dichiararono che Berlino era una fortezza.

Poi l’Armata Rossa fece passar loro le vogliette di sentirsi razza eletta.

Adesso la storia si ripete.

«With Ukraine’s energy grid suffering colossal damage after waves of Russian missile attacks»

«Con la rete energetica ucraina che ha subito danni colossali dopo le ondate di attacchi missilistici russi»

Ridotti al buio, al gelo ed alla fame cantano vittoria perché i russi non li hanno invasi.

Ma il Presidente Putin se ne guarda bene. Vogliono soltanto distruggerla, annientarla, renderla ad essere una mera realtà geografica. E ci stanno riuscendo più che bene.

* * * * * * *

Con la rete energetica ucraina che ha subito danni colossali dopo le ondate di attacchi missilistici russi, il presidente Volodymyr Zelensky ha annunciato un’iniziativa nazionale per preparare migliaia di centri di fortuna per fornire servizi di base in caso di blackout prolungato. Se i massicci attacchi russi si ripeteranno e se si capirà che la fornitura di elettricità non potrà essere ripristinata entro poche ore, verrà attivato il lavoro dei Punti di Invincibilità.

Quasi nessuna centrale termica e idroelettrica è rimasta indenne dopo le ondate di attacchi russi alle infrastrutture energetiche degli ultimi mesi. L’entità della distruzione è colossale. La raffica di attacchi del 15 novembre, che ha visto l’impiego di più di 100 missili e droni, è stato il più vasto assalto alle infrastrutture energetiche del Paese della guerra finora in corso.

Mentre Mosca è a corto di missili da crociera di precisione, secondo l’Ucraina e i suoi alleati, i rapporti dell’intelligence ucraina suggeriscono che il Cremlino ha ancora abbastanza nel suo arsenale per effettuare attacchi di scala simile altre tre o quattro volte. O costringe l’Ucraina a fare la pace o costringe l’Occidente a costringere l’Ucraina a fare la pace.

Lo sforzo di Mosca di far sprofondare la nazione nell’oscurità e nel gelo ha già costretto l’azienda nazionale ad attuare blackout controllati ma estesi, lasciando quasi tutti gli abitanti del Paese senza corrente per un periodo compreso tra le 4 e le 12 ore al giorno.

* * * * * * *

«With Ukraine’s energy grid suffering “colossal” damage after waves of Russian missile attacks, President Volodymyr Zelensky has announced a national drive to prepare thousands of makeshift centers to provide basic services in the event of prolonged blackouts. If massive Russian strikes take place again and if there is an understanding that the electricity supply cannot be restored within hours, the work of Points of Invincibility will be activated»

«Almost no thermal and hydroelectric power plants remain undamaged after waves of Russian strikes aimed at energy infrastructure in recent months. The scale of the destruction is colossal. Barrage of attacks on Nov. 15, including from more than 100 missiles and drones, was the broadest assault on the country’s energy infrastructure of the war so far»

«While Moscow is running low on precision cruise missiles, according to Ukraine and its allies, Ukrainian intelligence reports suggest the Kremlin still has enough in its arsenal to carry out attacks of a similar scale three or four more times. It’s either force Ukraine to make peace or force the West to force Ukraine to make peace»

«Moscow’s effort to plunge the nation into darkness and freezing conditions has already forced the national utility to implement controlled but extensive rolling blackouts, leaving nearly everyone in the country without power for between 4 to 12 hours a day.»

* * * * * * *

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Russia-Ukraine War. Ukraine Prepares for Prolonged Blackouts From Russian Attacks

Ukraine girds for prolonged blackouts with thousands of ‘Points of Invincibility.’

Kyiv, Ukraine — With Ukraine’s energy grid suffering “colossal” damage after waves of Russian missile attacks, President Volodymyr Zelensky has announced a national drive to prepare thousands of makeshift centers to provide basic services in the event of prolonged blackouts.

“If massive Russian strikes take place again and if there is an understanding that the electricity supply cannot be restored within hours, the work of ‘Points of Invincibility’ will be activated,” he told the nation in his nightly address on Tuesday.

“All basic services will be there,” he said, including electricity, mobile communications, internet access, heat, water, and first-aid supplies.

Almost no thermal and hydroelectric power plants remain undamaged after waves of Russian strikes aimed at energy infrastructure in recent months, according to the head of Ukraine’s national electricity grid.

“The scale of the destruction is colossal,” Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, the head of Ukrenergo, told a news conference on Tuesday.

Oleksii Danilov, the head of Ukraine’s national security and defense council, said a barrage of attacks on Nov. 15, including from more than 100 missiles and drones, was the broadest assault on the country’s energy infrastructure of the war so far.

While Moscow is running low on precision cruise missiles, according to Ukraine and its allies, Ukrainian intelligence reports suggest the Kremlin still has enough in its arsenal to carry out attacks of a similar scale “three or four more times.”  Ukrainian and U.S. officials have also said that Moscow is looking to Iran and North Korea to replenish its stockpiles.

Andriy Yermak, an adviser to Mr. Zelensky, said that the aerial attacks on energy infrastructure are a part of a “malign strategy” by Russia, which has been pushed back into defensive positions in the south and northeast after Ukrainian forces reclaimed around 55 percent of the territory occupied by Moscow during the early months of the war. Russia remains on the attack toward one eastern city, Bakhmut.

“Their goal is obvious: to cause a large-scale humanitarian catastrophe, to provoke another refugee crisis in Europe,” Mr. Yermak said in a statement. “It’s either force Ukraine to make peace or force the West to force Ukraine to make peace.”

Mr. Zelensky said it was clear that Russia was aiming “to turn the cold of winter into a weapon of mass destruction.”

Moscow’s effort to plunge the nation into darkness and freezing conditions has already forced the national utility to implement controlled but extensive rolling blackouts, leaving nearly everyone in the country without power for between 4 to 12 hours a day.  

Not knowing when the next wave of Russian missiles will come — and how effective Ukrainian air defenses will be in blunting their impact — Ukrainian officials must reckon with the possibility that further damage could render them unable to provide basic services.

Mr. Zelensky on Tuesday encouraged people in towns and cities across the country to go to a government website, nezlamnist.gov.ua, to find one of the 4,000 planned centers for basic services nearest their home.

People working at the centers, he said, would be able to direct residents to the nearest gas station, bank, pharmacy and grocery store in the event of a blackout.

“All of us must be prepared for any scenario,” he said. “I am sure: by helping each other, we will all be able to get through this winter together.”

In addition to the “Points of Invincibility” — its name meant to promote Ukrainian solidarity and courage — municipal workers in Kyiv are setting up 1,000 heating shelters that can double as bunkers for hundreds of people, stocked with essential supplies to last more than a week. Similar efforts are underway in towns and cities around the nation.

In parts of the country recently reclaimed from retreating Russian forces, including Kherson, the damage to infrastructure is so severe that Ukraine’s government is helping residents evacuate to other parts of the country.  But Ukrainian officials have emphasized that there is no need for a broader evacuation.

“I believe that the call for a mass departure of Ukrainians abroad is currently inappropriate,” Mr. Kudrytskyi said.

India. Una grande potenza politica ed economica in continua ascesa.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-11-26.

L’india è cresciuta molto velocemente nel corso degli anni, mostrando soprattutto un elevato senso dello equilibrio.

Non ha assunto schieramenti ideologici.

«il suo governo è stato ripetutamente criticato per la repressione della libertà di parola e per le politiche discriminatorie nei confronti delle minoranze»: già. Ma a criticarlo erano i liberal democratici, quelli che adesso sono orfani di Joe Biden.

* * *

India. Lancia altri 36 satelliti di comunicazioni per OneWeb.

India. È diventata la sesta economia mondiale e sorpassa il Regno Unito che retrocede.

India. È diventata il maggiore importatore di petrolio russo.

India. Imf stima la crescita al 7.4% per il 2022 ed al 6.1% per il 2023.

India. Carbone. Utilizza oltre un trilione di tonnellate ed importa tranquillante il carbone russo.

India. Non appoggia bensì si dissocia dalle sanzioni alla Russia.

India. Prosegue tranquilla a comprare petrolio dalla Russia. Non accetta le sanzioni di Joe Biden.

India – Russia accordo per usare rupia e rublo come valute di scambio. – Sfregio a Biden.

Nazioni Unite. Cina, India ed Emirati Arabi Uniti si astengono e Russia pone il veto.

* * * * * * *

                         Ucraina, una frase familiare spiccava nel documento di 1,186 pagine. L’era odierna non deve essere quella della guerra, si leggeva, facendo eco a quanto detto dal Primo Ministro indiano Narendra Modi al leader russo Vladimir Putin durante un incontro faccia a faccia a settembre. I media e i funzionari del Paese di 1.3 miliardi di abitanti hanno subito rivendicato l’inclusione come un segno che la più grande democrazia del mondo ha svolto un ruolo vitale nel colmare le differenze tra una Russia sempre più isolata e gli Stati Uniti e i suoi alleati.

                         Il messaggio del Primo Ministro, secondo cui questa non è l’era della guerra ha risuonato profondamente in tutte le delegazioni e ha contribuito a colmare il divario tra le diverse parti.

                         Mentre Nuova Delhi bilancia abilmente i suoi legami con la Russia e l’Occidente, Modi, secondo gli analisti, sta emergendo come un leader che è stato corteggiato da tutte le parti, conquistando il sostegno in patria e cementando l’India come broker di potere internazionale. Modi, d’altra parte, ha tenuto una serie di discussioni con diversi leader mondiali, tra cui il neo-primo ministro britannico Rishi Sunak, che hanno riguardato la sicurezza alimentare e l’ambiente, la salute e la rinascita economica, evitando di condannare apertamente l’aggressione di Putin e continuando a prendere le distanze dalla Russia.

                         Dall’inizio della guerra, l’India ha ripetutamente chiesto la cessazione della violenza in Ucraina, senza condannare apertamente l’invasione della Russia. Voglio assicurare che la presidenza indiana del G20 sarà inclusiva, ambiziosa, decisa e orientata all’azione. Il posizionamento dell’India per il vertice del prossimo anno è molto incentrato sull’essere la voce del mondo in via di sviluppo e del Sud globale.

                         Sebbene Modi rimanga immensamente popolare in un Paese in cui circa l’80% della popolazione è indù, il suo governo è stato ripetutamente criticato per la repressione della libertà di parola e per le politiche discriminatorie nei confronti delle minoranze. Ma credo che la sua posizione internazionale derivi dalla sua posizione interna. Se questa rimane forte, il pubblico internazionale è destinato a rispettarlo.

* * * * * * *

«When world leaders at the Group of 20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, issued a joint statement condemning Russia’s war in Ukraine, a familiar sentence stood out from the 1,186-page document. Today’s era must not be of war, it said, echoing what Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told Russian leader Vladimir Putin during a face-to-face meeting in September. Media and officials in the country of 1.3 billion were quick to claim the inclusion as a sign that the world’s largest democracy had played a vital role in bridging differences between an increasingly isolated Russia, and the United States and its allies.»

«The Prime Minister’s message that this is not the era of war… resonated very deeply across all the delegations and helped bridge the gap across different parties,»

«As New Delhi deftly balances its ties to Russia and the West, Modi, analysts say, is emerging as a leader who has been courted by all sides, winning him support at home, while cementing India as an international power broker. Modi, on the other hand, held a series of discussions with several world leaders, including newly appointed British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, ranging from food security and environment, to health and economic revival – steering largely clear of condemning Putin’s aggression outright, while continuing to distance his country from Russia»

«Since the start of the war, India has repeatedly called for a cessation of violence in Ukraine, falling short of condemning Russia’s invasion outright. I want to assure that India’s G20 presidency will be inclusive, ambitious, decisive, and action-oriented. India’s positioning of next year’s summit is very much of being the voice of the developing world and the global South»

«While Modi remains immensely popular in a country where about 80% of the population is Hindu, his government has been repeatedly criticized for a clampdown on free speech and discriminatory policies toward minority groups. But I think his international standing comes from his domestic standing. And if that remains strong, then the international audience is bound to respect him»

* * * * * * *

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G20’s criticism of Russia shows the rise of a new Asian power. And it isn’t China.

Hong Kong CNN. When world leaders at the Group of 20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, issued a joint statement condemning Russia’s war in Ukraine, a familiar sentence stood out from the 1,186-page document.

“Today’s era must not be of war,” it said, echoing what Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told Russian leader Vladimir Putin during a face-to-face meeting in September.

Media and officials in the country of 1.3 billion were quick to claim the inclusion as a sign that the world’s largest democracy had played a vital role in bridging differences between an increasingly isolated Russia, and the United States and its allies.

“How India united G20 on PM Modi’s idea of peace,” ran a headline in the Times of India, the country’s largest English-language paper. “The Prime Minister’s message that this is not the era of war… resonated very deeply across all the delegations and helped bridge the gap across different parties,” India’s Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra told reporters Wednesday.

The declaration came as Indonesian President Joko Widodo handed over the G20 presidency to Modi, who will host the next leaders’ summit in the Indian capital New Delhi in September 2023 – about six months before he is expected to head to the polls in a general election and contest the country’s top seat for a third time.

As New Delhi deftly balances its ties to Russia and the West, Modi, analysts say, is emerging as a leader who has been courted by all sides, winning him support at home, while cementing India as an international power broker.

“The domestic narrative is that the G20 summit is being used as a big banner in Modi’s election campaign to show he’s a great global statesmen,” said Sushant Singh, a senior fellow at New Delhi-based think tank Center for Policy Research. “And the current Indian leadership now sees themselves as a powerful country seated at the high table.”

                         India bridges ‘multiple antagonists’

On some accounts, India’s presence at the G20 was overshadowed by the much anticipated meeting between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden, and the scramble to investigate the killing of two Polish citizens after what Warsaw said was a “Russian-made missile” landed in a village near the NATO-member’s border with Ukraine.

Global headlines covered in detail how Biden and Xi met for three hours on Monday, in an attempt to prevent their rivalry from spilling into open conflict. And on Wednesday, leaders from the G7 and NATO convened an emergency meeting in Bali to discuss the explosion in Poland.

Modi, on the other hand, held a series of discussions with several world leaders, including newly appointed British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, ranging from food security and environment, to health and economic revival – steering largely clear of condemning Putin’s aggression outright, while continuing to distance his country from Russia.

While India had a “modest agenda” for the G20 revolving around the issues of energy, climate, and economic turmoil as a result of the war, Western leaders “are listening to India as a major stakeholder in the region, because India is a country that is close to both the West and Russia,” said Happymon Jacob, associate professor of diplomacy and disarmament at the Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) in New Delhi.

New Delhi has strong ties with Moscow dating back to the Cold War, and India remains heavily reliant on the Kremlin for military equipment – a vital link given India’s ongoing tensions at its shared Himalayan border with an increasingly assertive China.

At the same time, New Delhi has been growing closer to the West as leaders attempt to counter the rise of Beijing, placing India in a strategically comfortable position.

“One of the ways in which India had an impact at the G20 is that it seems to be one of the few countries that can engage all sides,” said Harsh V. Pant, professor in international relations at King’s College London. “It’s a role that India has been able to bridge between multiple antagonists.”

                         ‘Voice of the developing world’

Since the start of the war, India has repeatedly called for a cessation of violence in Ukraine, falling short of condemning Russia’s invasion outright.

But as Putin’s aggression has intensified, killing thousands of people and throwing the global economy into chaos, analysts say India’s limits are being put to the test.

Observers point out Modi’s stronger language to Putin in recent months was made in the context of rising food, fuel and fertilizer prices, and the hardships that was creating for other countries. And while this year’s G20 was looked at through the lens of the war, India could bring its own agenda to the table next year.

“India’s taking over the presidency comes at a time when the world is placing a lot of focus on renewable energy, rising prices and inflation,” Jacob from JNU said. “And there is a feeling that India is seen as a key country that can provide for the needs of the region in South Asia and beyond.”

Soaring global prices across a number of energy sources as a result of the war are hammering consumers, who are already grappling with rising food costs and inflation.

Speaking at the end of the G20 summit on Wednesday, Modi said India was taking charge at a time when the world was “grappling with geopolitical tensions, economic slowdown, rising food and energy prices, and the long-term ill-effects of the pandemic.”

“I want to assure that India’s G20 presidency will be inclusive, ambitious, decisive, and action-oriented,” he said in his speech.

India’s positioning of next year’s summit is “very much of being the voice of the developing world and the global South,” Pant, from King’s College London, said.

“Modi’s idea is to project India as a country that can respond to today’s challenges by echoing the concerns that some of the poorest countries have about the contemporary global order.”

                         All eyes on Modi

As India prepares to assume the G20 presidency, all eyes are on Modi as he also begins his campaign for India’s 2024 national election.

Domestically, his Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) populist politics have polarized the nation.

While Modi remains immensely popular in a country where about 80% of the population is Hindu, his government has been repeatedly criticized for a clampdown on free speech and discriminatory policies toward minority groups.

Amid those criticisms, Modi’s political allies have been keen to push his international credentials, portraying him as a key player in the global order.

 “(The BJP) is taking Modi’s G20 meetings as a political message that he is bolstering India’s image abroad and forging strong partnerships,” said Singh, from the Center for Policy Research.

This week, India and Britain announced they are going ahead with a much anticipated “UK-India Young Professionals Scheme,” which will allow 3,000 degree-educated Indian nationals between 18 and 30 years old to live and work in the United Kingdom for up to two years.

At the same time, Modi’s Twitter showed a flurry of smiling photographs and video of the leader with his Western counterparts.

“His domestic image remains strong,” Singh said, adding it remains to be seen whether Modi can keep up his careful balancing act as the war progresses.

“But I think his international standing comes from his domestic standing. And if that remains strong, then the international audience is bound to respect him.”

Ukraina. Sta esaurendo le armi antiaeree. Uno Shahed-136 costa 20,000 dollari.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-11-21.

Fotografia da aggiornare. Gli Elettori hanno reso Joe Biden un pappagallo impagliato collocato nell’atrio della White House. Il nuovo Cogresso a guida repubblicana ha già messo lui ed il figlio Hunter sotto inchiesta.

«they cost around $20,000 per unit, compared with a cruise missile that can cost several million dollars»

«costano circa 20.000 dollari per unità, rispetto a un missile da crociera che può costare diversi milioni di dollari»

* * * * * * *

                         L’Ucraina rischia di esaurire le armi di difesa aerea e ha bisogno dell’aiuto urgente dell’Occidente per difendersi. La Russia ha messo in campo un’ondata di attacchi con i droni per danneggiare e distruggere le strutture energetiche ucraine. Rischia di esaurire le attrezzature che finora le hanno permesso di combattere gli attacchi aerei russi.

                         Nelle ultime settimane la Russia ha bombardato il Paese con un’ondata di droni a basso costo forniti dall’Iran che stanno distruggendo le infrastrutture energetiche del Paese. Mosca e Teheran hanno negato l’esistenza di un accordo per la fornitura da parte dell’Iran alla Russia, un Paese con opzioni di approvvigionamento limitate a causa delle sanzioni internazionali.

                         Pubblicato il loro nuovo rapporto sulle difese aeree dell’Ucraina, mentre la Russia si affida sempre più ai droni iraniani Shahed-136 per disattivare le reti energetiche dell’Ucraina. Se i SAM [sistemi missilistici terra-aria] ucraini non saranno riforniti di munizioni, e infine aumentati e sostituiti con equivalenti occidentali nel corso del tempo, le forze aerospaziali russe [il VKS] riacquisteranno la capacità di rappresentare una minaccia importante.

                         Negli ultimi mesi, tuttavia, la Russia ha dispiegato centinaia di droni carichi di esplosivo forniti dall’Iran che sono stati utilizzati per colpire le infrastrutture energetiche dell’Ucraina, privando centinaia di migliaia di persone dell’acqua e dell’elettricità con l’arrivo delle temperature più rigide.

                         Essenzialmente missili ad elica, questi droni sono poco costosi da acquistare; i rapporti suggeriscono che costano circa 20.000 dollari per unità, rispetto a un missile da crociera che può costare diversi milioni di dollari. Inoltre, sebbene non siano in grado di eseguire manovre sofisticate e contengano quantità inferiori di esplosivo rispetto ai missili convenzionali, possono essere inviati in sciami per sostare sopra il loro obiettivo e sono più difficili da rilevare per i sistemi radar.

* * * * * * *

«Ukraine is at risk of running out of air defense weapons and needs urgent help from the West to defend itself. Russia has deployed a wave of drone attacks to damage and destroy Ukrainian energy facilities. Risks running out of equipment that has, so far, enabled it to combat Russian air attacks.»

«Russia has bombarded the country over recent weeks with a tide of cheap Iran-supplied drones which are destroying the country’s energy infrastructure. Moscow and Tehran have denied that there is a deal for Iran to supply Russia , a country with limited supply options due to international sanctions.»

«Published their new report on Ukraine’s air defenses as Russia increasingly relies on Iranian Shahed-136 drones to disable Ukraine’s energy networks. If Ukrainian SAMs [surface-to-air missile systems] are not resupplied with ammunition, and ultimately augmented and replaced with Western equivalents over time, Russian Aerospace Forces [the VKS] will regain the ability to pose a major threat»

«In the last few months, however, Russia has deployed hundreds of explosive-carrying drones supplied by Iran that have been used to target Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, depriving hundreds of thousands of people of water and electricity as colder temperatures set in.»

«Essentially propeller-powered missiles, these drones are cheap to buy; reports suggest they cost around $20,000 per unit, compared with a cruise missile that can cost several million dollars. Also, while they aren’t able to perform sophisticated maneuvers and contain smaller quantities of explosives to conventional missiles, they can be sent in “swarms” to loiter above their target and are harder for radar systems to detect.»

* * * * * * *

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Ukraine in danger of running out of air defenses as Russia launches relentless drone attacks.

– Ukraine is at risk of running out of air defense weapons and needs urgent help from the West to defend itself, defense analysts said Monday.

– Russia has deployed a wave of drone attacks to damage and destroy Ukrainian energy facilities.

– RUSI analysts said Kyiv needs more air defense weapons from the West, or risks running out of equipment that has, so far, enabled it to combat Russian air attacks.

* * * * * * *

Ukraine is at risk of running out of air defense weapons and needs urgent help from the West to defend itself, analysts at the Royal United Services Institute said Monday.

Russia has bombarded the country over recent weeks with a tide of cheap Iran-supplied drones which are destroying the country’s energy infrastructure.

“The West must avoid complacency about the need to urgently bolster Ukrainian air-defence capacity,” defense and security think tank RUSI said.

Moscow and Tehran have denied that there is a deal for Iran to supply Russia — a country with limited supply options due to international sanctions — with weapons. However, the Iranian government acknowledged for the first time Saturday that it had sent a number of drones to Russia, but insisted this was before Russia invaded Ukraine.

The U.S. Special Envoy for Iran Robert Malley rejected that claim, saying Tehran supplied drones to Russia in the summer.

RUSI analysts Justin Bronk, Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds published their new report on Ukraine’s air defenses as Russia increasingly relies on Iranian Shahed-136 drones to disable Ukraine’s energy networks.

“If Ukrainian SAMs [surface-to-air missile systems] are not resupplied with ammunition, and ultimately augmented and replaced with Western equivalents over time, Russian Aerospace Forces [the VKS] will regain the ability to pose a major threat,” the analysts said.

On Sunday night, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said the Iranian regime was helping Russia prolong the war, saying “if it was not for the Iranian supply of weapons to the aggressor, we would be closer to peace now.” He also warned that Russia needed Iranian missiles for a “possible repetition of mass attacks on our infrastructure.”

For its part, Ukraine continues to plead for more air defense weapons to help it combat Russian drone and missile attacks. RUSI’s analysts agree that Ukraine requires urgent assistance to ensure that “Kyiv can counter Moscow’s updated approach to the air war in Ukraine.”

                         Strategic air attacks

In the early months of the war against Ukraine, Russia’s attempts at strategic air attacks were limited to expensive cruise and ballistic missile barrages and were on a much more limited scale, RUSI’s experts said, noting that “these failed to achieve strategically decisive damage during the first seven months of the invasion.”

In the last few months, however, Russia has deployed hundreds of explosive-carrying drones supplied by Iran that have been used to target Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, depriving hundreds of thousands of people of water and electricity as colder temperatures set in.

Essentially propeller-powered missiles, these drones are cheap to buy; reports suggest they cost around $20,000 per unit, compared with a cruise missile that can cost several million dollars. Also, while they aren’t able to perform sophisticated maneuvers and contain smaller quantities of explosives to conventional missiles, they can be sent in “swarms” to loiter above their target and are harder for radar systems to detect.

Images showed Kyiv’s police attempting to shoot down drones during an attack last month that targeted residential buildings and energy facilities.

RUSI’s defense analysts said the use of Iranian drones had changed the character of Russia’s air attack strategy, noting that the latest iteration “is a more focused and sustainable bombardment of the Ukrainian electricity grid, blending hundreds of cheap Iranian-supplied Shahed-136 loitering munitions against substations with continued use of cruise and ballistic missiles against larger targets.”

                         What Ukraine needs

In the short term, according to RUSI, Ukraine needs large numbers of additional man-portable air defense systems, known as “MANPADS,” and radar-guided anti-aircraft guns, such as the Gepard.

These will “sustain and increase its ability to intercept the Shahed-136s and protect its remaining power infrastructure and repairs to damaged facilities,” the analysts added.

“In the medium term, Ukraine needs cost-effective ways to defend itself against the Shahed-136,” they said, also noting that the Ukrainian Air Force needs modern Western fighter jets and missiles to sustainably counter Russian Aerospace Forces, or VKS. “Russian pilots have been cautious throughout the war, so even a small number of Western fighters [jets] could have a major deterrent effect.”

Truss. Un crollo da un trilione di dollari che ha gettato il Regno Unito nella crisi.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-10-15.

Liz Truss e la sua amministrazione di immigrati, senza nemmeno un inglese, ha fatto e sta facendo più danni di una bomba atomica.

Ma la banca centrale inglese non è onnipotente.

Il crollo dei fondi pensioni lascia un gran numero di persone senza capitale e senza pensione.

Ma il prossimo anno gli Elettori sembrerebbero essere bene intenzionati a votare in modo plebiscitario i laburisti.

* * * * * * *

I fondi pensione sono progettati per essere noiosi. Il loro unico scopo – incassare liquidità sufficiente per effettuare i pagamenti ai pensionati – favorisce la freddezza rispetto ai temerari che corrono il pericolo. Ma quando i mercati del Regno Unito sono andati in tilt la scorsa settimana, un intero gruppo di gestori di fondi pensione britannici si è trovato al centro di una crisi che ha spinto la Banca d’Inghilterra a intervenire per ripristinare la stabilità e scongiurare un più ampio crollo finanziario.

In seguito all’annuncio del ministro delle Finanze Kwasi Kwarteng, venerdì 23 settembre, di un piano per aumentare i prestiti per pagare i tagli alle tasse, gli acquirenti hanno scaricato la sterlina e i titoli di Stato del Regno Unito, mandando i rendimenti di parte del debito alle stelle con la velocità più alta mai registrata. Con il crollo del valore dei titoli di Stato, ai fondi è stato chiesto di fornire miliardi di chili in garanzie. In una corsa al denaro, i gestori dei fondi sono stati costretti a promuovere tutto ciò che potevano – insieme, in alcuni casi, ad altri titoli di Stato. Questo ha fatto salire ulteriormente i rendimenti, scatenando un’altra ondata di richieste di garanzie.

La Banca d’Inghilterra è entrata in modalità crisi. Dopo aver lavorato la sera di martedì 27 settembre, il giorno successivo è intervenuta sul mercato con l’impegno di acquistare fino a 65 miliardi di sterline (73 miliardi di dollari) in obbligazioni, se necessario. Questo ha fermato l’emorragia e ha scongiurato quello che l’istituto finanziario centrale ha poi dichiarato ai legislatori essere il suo peggior timore: una spirale auto-rinforzante e una diffusa instabilità finanziaria. Al momento i fondi pensione sono in corsa per raccogliere denaro per riempire le loro casse. Tuttavia, ci si chiede se siano in grado di ritrovare il loro equilibrio prima della scadenza del prestito obbligazionario d’emergenza della Banca d’Inghilterra, prevista per il 14 ottobre. E per una più ampia gamma di acquirenti, il quasi fallimento è un campanello d’allarme.

L’LDI si basa su una semplice premessa: le pensioni devono disporre di liquidità sufficiente per pagare quanto dovuto ai pensionati anche in futuro. Per pianificare i pagamenti tra 30 o 50 anni, acquistano obbligazioni a lunga scadenza, mentre comprano derivati per coprire queste scommesse. Nel frattempo, devono fornire garanzie. Se i rendimenti obbligazionari salgono bruscamente, viene richiesto loro di mettere a disposizione molto più collaterale in quella che viene spesso definita una richiesta di margine. Questo settore oscuro del mercato è cresciuto rapidamente negli ultimi anni, raggiungendo una valutazione di oltre un trilione di sterline (1.1 trilioni di dollari), secondo la Banca d’Inghilterra.

Mentre le banche centrali aumentano i tassi di interesse al ritmo più rapido degli ultimi decenni, gli acquirenti sono nervosi per le implicazioni sui loro portafogli e sul sistema economico. Hanno in mano più denaro, il che rende più difficile l’esecuzione delle operazioni e può esacerbare i colpi di fortuna.

* * * * * * *

«How meltdown in a $1 trillion market brought the UK to the brink of a financial crisis. Pension funds are designed to be boring. Their singular purpose — incomes sufficient cash to make payouts to retirees — favors cool heads over brash danger takers. But as markets in the United Kingdom went haywire last week, a whole bunch of British pension fund managers discovered themselves at the middle of a crisis that pressured the Bank of England to step in to restore stability and avert a broader financial meltdown.»

«Following finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng’s announcement on Friday, Sept. 23 of plans to ramp up borrowing to pay for tax cuts, buyers dumped the pound and UK authorities bonds, sending yields on some of that debt soaring at the quickest charge on file. As the worth of authorities bonds crashed, the funds had been requested to pony up billions of kilos in collateral. In a scramble for money, funding managers had been pressured to promote no matter they may — together with, in some circumstances, extra authorities bonds. That despatched yields even larger, sparking one other wave of collateral calls»

«The Bank of England went into crisis mode. After working by the evening of Tuesday, Sept. 27, it stepped into the market the subsequent day with a pledge to purchase up to £65 billion ($73 billion) in bonds if wanted. That stopped the bleeding and averted what the central financial institution later advised lawmakers was its worst concern: a self-reinforcing spiral and widespread financial instability. Pension funds at the moment are racing to elevate cash to refill their coffers. Yet there are questions on whether or not they can discover their footing earlier than the Bank of England’s emergency bond-buying is due to finish on Oct. 14. And for a wider vary of buyers, the near-miss is a wake-up name.»

«LDI is constructed on a simple premise: Pensions want sufficient cash to pay what they owe retirees nicely into the future. To plan for payouts in 30 or 50 years, they purchase long-dated bonds, whereas buying derivatives to hedge these bets. In the course of, they’ve to put up collateral. If bond yields rise sharply, they’re requested to put up much more collateral in what’s often known as a margin call. This obscure nook of the market has grown quickly in latest years, reaching a valuation of extra £1 trillion ($1.1 trillion), in accordance to the Bank of England.»

«As central banks jack up rates of interest at the fastest clip in decades, buyers are nervous about the implications for his or her portfolios and for the economic system. They’re holding more money, which makes it more durable to execute trades and may exacerbate jarring worth strikes.»

* * * * * * *

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How meltdown in a $1 trillion market brought the UK to the brink of a financial crisis

Pension funds are designed to be boring. Their singular purpose — incomes sufficient cash to make payouts to retirees — favors cool heads over brash danger takers.

But as markets in the United Kingdom went haywire last week, a whole bunch of British pension fund managers discovered themselves at the middle of a crisis that pressured the Bank of England to step in to restore stability and avert a broader financial meltdown.

All it took was one massive shock. Following finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng’s announcement on Friday, Sept. 23 of plans to ramp up borrowing to pay for tax cuts, buyers dumped the pound and UK authorities bonds, sending yields on some of that debt soaring at the quickest charge on file.

The scale of the tumult put monumental stress on many pension funds by upending an investing technique that includes the use of derivatives to hedge their bets.

As the worth of authorities bonds crashed, the funds had been requested to pony up billions of kilos in collateral. In a scramble for money, funding managers had been pressured to promote no matter they may — together with, in some circumstances, extra authorities bonds. That despatched yields even larger, sparking one other wave of collateral calls.

“It started to feed itself,” mentioned Ben Gold, head of funding at XPS Pensions Group, a UK pensions consultancy. “Everyone was looking to sell and there was no buyer.”

The Bank of England went into crisis mode. After working by the evening of Tuesday, Sept. 27, it stepped into the market the subsequent day with a pledge to purchase up to £65 billion ($73 billion) in bonds if wanted. That stopped the bleeding and averted what the central financial institution later advised lawmakers was its worst concern: a “self-reinforcing spiral” and “widespread financial instability.”

In a letter to the head of the UK Parliament’s Treasury Committee this week, the Bank of England mentioned that if it hadn’t interceded, a quantity of funds would have defaulted, amplifying the pressure on the financial system. It mentioned its intervention was important to “restore core market functioning.”

Pension funds at the moment are racing to elevate cash to refill their coffers. Yet there are questions on whether or not they can discover their footing earlier than the Bank of England’s emergency bond-buying is due to finish on Oct. 14. And for a wider vary of buyers, the near-miss is a wake-up name.

For the first time in many years, rates of interest are rising shortly round the world. In that local weather, markets are inclined to accidents.

“What the previous two weeks have told you is there can be a lot more volatility in markets,” mentioned Barry Kenneth, chief funding officer at the Pension Protection Fund, which manages pensions for workers of UK firms that develop into bancrupt. “It’s easy to invest when everything’s going up. It’s a lot more difficult to invest when you’re trying to catch a falling knife, or you’ve got to readjust to a new environment.”

The first indicators of bother appeared amongst fund managers who give attention to so-called “liability-driven investment,” or LDI, for pensions. Gold mentioned he began to obtain messages from apprehensive purchasers over the weekend of Sept. 24-25.

LDI is constructed on a simple premise: Pensions want sufficient cash to pay what they owe retirees nicely into the future. To plan for payouts in 30 or 50 years, they purchase long-dated bonds, whereas buying derivatives to hedge these bets. In the course of, they’ve to put up collateral. If bond yields rise sharply, they’re requested to put up much more collateral in what’s often known as a “margin call.” This obscure nook of the market has grown quickly in latest years, reaching a valuation of extra £1 trillion ($1.1 trillion), in accordance to the Bank of England.

When bond yields rise slowly over time, it’s not a drawback for pensions deploying LDI methods, and really helps their funds. But if bond yields shoot up in a short time, it’s a recipe for bother. According to the Bank of England, the transfer in bond yields earlier than it intervened was “unprecedented.” The four-day transfer in 30-year UK authorities bonds was greater than twice what was seen throughout the highest-stress interval of the pandemic.

“The sharpness and the viciousness of the move is what really caught people out,” Kenneth mentioned.

The margin calls got here in — and saved coming. The Pension Protection Fund mentioned it confronted a £1.6 billion name for money. It was ready to pay with out dumping belongings, however others had been caught off guard, and had been pressured into a fireplace sale of authorities bonds, company debt and shares to elevate cash. Gold estimated that a minimum of half of the 400 pension applications that XPS advises confronted collateral calls, and that throughout the business, funds at the moment are trying to fill a gap of between £100 billion and £150 billion.

“When you push such large moves through the financial system, it makes sense that something would break,” mentioned Rohan Khanna, a strategist at UBS.

When market dysfunction sparks a chain response, it’s not simply scary for buyers. The Bank of England made clear in its letter that the bond market rout “may have led to an excessive and sudden tightening of financing conditions for the real economy” as borrowing prices skyrocketed. For many companies and mortgage holders, they have already got.

So far, the Bank of England has solely purchased £3.8 billion in bonds, far lower than it may have bought. Still, the effort has despatched a robust sign. Yields on longer-term bonds have dropped sharply, giving pension funds time to recoup — although they’ve just lately began to rise once more.

“What the Bank of England has done is bought time for some of my peers out there,” Kenneth mentioned.

Still, Kenneth is anxious that if the program ends subsequent week as scheduled, the activity received’t be full given the complexity of many pension funds. Daniela Russell, head of UK charges technique at HSBC, warned in a latest be aware to purchasers that there’s a danger of a “cliff-edge,” particularly since the Bank of England is transferring forward with earlier plans to begin promoting bonds it purchased throughout the pandemic at the finish of the month.

“It might be hoped that the precedent of BoE intervention continues to provide a backstop beyond this date, but this may not be sufficient to prevent a renewed vigorous sell-off in long-dated gilts,” she wrote.

As central banks jack up rates of interest at the fastest clip in decades, buyers are nervous about the implications for his or her portfolios and for the economic system. They’re holding more money, which makes it more durable to execute trades and may exacerbate jarring worth strikes.

That makes a shock occasion extra possible to trigger large disruption, and the specter of the subsequent shocker looms. Will it’s a tough batch of financial knowledge? Trouble at a global bank? Another political misstep in the United Kingdom?

Gold mentioned the pension business as a complete is best ready now, although he concedes it could be “naive” to suppose there couldn’t be one other bout of instability.

“You would need to see yields rise more quickly than we saw this time,” he mentioned, noting the bigger buffers funds at the moment are amassing. “It would require something of absolutely historic proportions for that not to be enough, but you never know.”

Francia. Per due anni non esporterà energia elettrica in Italia.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-09-20.

«Nuclear power output by EDF is set to fall to the lowest in more than three decades as it grapples with maintenance for its aging plants, turning France, traditionally Europe’s biggest electricity exporting country, into a net importer»

«La produzione di energia nucleare da parte di EDF è destinata a scendere al minimo in più di tre decenni, mentre è alle prese con la manutenzione dei suoi impianti obsoleti, trasformando la Francia, tradizionalmente il più grande Paese esportatore di elettricità in Europa, in un importatore netto»

* * * * * * *

La Francia potrebbe imporre uno stop di due anni alle esportazioni di energia elettrica verso l’Italia, mentre Electricite de France SA, controllata dallo Stato, lotta contro la diminuzione della produzione delle sue centrali nucleari, aggravando una crisi energetica sempre più profonda mentre l’Europa si avvia verso l’inverno.

Un portavoce di EDF ha smentito la notizia, affermando che l’azienda francese controllata dallo Stato non ha inviato alcuna lettera alle autorità italiane. Una portavoce dell’operatore della rete elettrica francese RTE, che è controllata al 50.1% da EDF ma il cui statuto ne garantisce l’indipendenza.

La produzione di energia nucleare da parte di EDF è destinata a scendere al minimo in più di tre decenni, mentre è alle prese con la manutenzione dei suoi impianti obsoleti, trasformando la Francia, tradizionalmente il più grande paese esportatore di elettricità in Europa, in un importatore netto.

L’Italia importa circa il 13% della sua energia elettrica, secondo l’operatore nazionale Terna. La Francia rappresenta circa il 5% del consumo annuale del Paese.

* * * * * * *

«France may impose a two-year halt on power exports to Italy as state-controlled Electricite de France SA battles dwindling output from its nuclear plants, aggravating a deepening energy crisis as Europe moves into winter.»

«A spokesman for EDF denied the report, saying the French state-controlled utility hasn’t sent a letter to the Italian authorities. A spokeswoman for French power grid operator RTE, which is 50.1% owned by EDF but whose statutes ensure its independence»

«Nuclear power output by EDF is set to fall to the lowest in more than three decades as it grapples with maintenance for its aging plants, turning France, traditionally Europe’s biggest electricity exporting country, into a net importer»

«Italy imports about 13% of its power, according to national operator Terna. France accounts for about 5% of the country’s annual consumption.»

* * * * * * *

---

France Mulls Italy Power Export Halt as Nuclear Output Drops

– EDF Raises Earnings Hit From Output Drop to $29 Billion (1) As Europe heads into a difficult winter the energy shortages are testing the solidarity between countries.

– France’s potential energy cut to its Italian neighbors signal that national interest may prevail if the crisis intensifies.

– Nuclear energy output by the French state-controlled utility is set to fall to the lowest in more than three decades as it grapples with maintenance for its aging plants, turning what is traditionally Europe’s biggest electricity exporting country into a net.

* * * * * * *

France may impose a two-year halt on power exports to Italy as state-controlled Electricite de France SA battles dwindling output from its nuclear plants, aggravating a deepening energy crisis as Europe moves into winter.

Italy is working on plans to compensate for any cut in supply after receiving a written notification about the possible halt, a spokeswoman for the Italian ministry of energy transition said on Saturday, confirming a report by newspaper La Repubblica.

A spokesman for EDF denied the report, saying the French state-controlled utility “hasn’t sent a letter” to the Italian authorities. A spokeswoman for French power grid operator RTE, which is 50.1% owned by EDF but whose statutes ensure its independence, had no immediate comment. France’s finance ministry declined to comment.

Nuclear power output by EDF is set to fall to the lowest in more than three decades as it grapples with maintenance for its aging plants, turning France, traditionally Europe’s biggest electricity exporting country, into a net importer. The shortages are exacerbating an energy crunch across Europe after Russia cut its gas supplies to the continent.

Read More: EDF Raises Earnings Hit From Output Drop to $29 Billion 

As Europe heads into a difficult winter, the power shortages are testing the solidarity between countries. France’s potential power cut to its neighbor signals that national interest may prevail if the crisis intensifies. 

Earlier this month, Italy said it was targeting a reduction in natural gas consumption this winter by increasing the use of coal, turning down heating across the country, and pushing to change consumer behavior.

Italy imports about 13% of its power, according to national operator Terna. France accounts for about 5% of the country’s annual consumption.

Russia. Esportazioni energetiche a 338 miliardi di dollari nel 2022. +52% yoy.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-09-14.

«Russia forecasts energy export revenues to rise this year by nearly $100 billion as higher commodity prices offset a decrease in volumes, Reuters reports, citing government documents.

Russia’s Economy Ministry now expects energy export revenue to reach $338 billion in 2022, up more than a third from $244 billion last year.» [RadioFreeEurope]

* * * * * * *

I ricavi delle esportazioni energetiche raggiungeranno i 338 miliardi di dollari nel 2022. Cina e India hanno acquistato altri 9 miliardi di dollari di greggio russo nel secondo trimestre, vanificando il tentativo dell’Occidente di comprimere le finanze di Mosca. Nello stesso periodo, Cina e India hanno importato 11 milioni di tonnellate in più. L’India, in particolare, ha registrato un’enorme impennata dei volumi, con consegne di greggio russo passate da 0,66 milioni di tonnellate a 8,42 milioni di tonnellate.

 Per esempio, Tatneft, un produttore di petrolio russo, ha visto i profitti balzare del 52% rispetto all’anno precedente per la prima metà del 2022, riporta il FT. E il mese scorso la Russia ha esportato più petrolio rispetto a qualsiasi altro agosto registrato.

* * * * * * *

«Energy export revenue to reach $338 billion in 2022. China and India bought $9 billion worth of additional Russian crude in the 2nd quarter, undercutting the West’s attempt to squeeze Moscow’s finances. China and India together imported 11 million additional tonnes during that span. India in particular has seen a huge uptick in volume, with deliveries of Russian crude going from 0.66 million tonnes to 8.42 million tonnes»

« For example, Tatneft, a Russian oil producer, saw profits jump 52% year-over-year for the first half of 2022, the FT reports. And last month, Russia exported more oil compared to any previous August on record»

* * * * * * *

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China and India bought $9 billion worth of additional Russian crude in the 2nd quarter, undercutting the West’s attempt to squeeze Moscow’s finances

– The two nations bought $9 billion in additional Russian crude in the second quarter compared to the first quarter, a Financial Times report says.

– China and India together imported 11 million additional tonnes during that span.

China and India customs data reveal that the countries ramped up purchases of Russian oil by $9 billion in the second quarter compared to the first quarter, according to a Financial Times report.

Between the two Asian nations, Russian oil imports jumped by 11 million tonnes in the second quarter.

India in particular has seen a huge uptick in volume, with deliveries of Russian crude going from 0.66 million tonnes to 8.42 million tonnes, per the FT.

Since Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February, the US and its allies have imposed sanctions on Russia. And while not all countries have directly banned Russian oil, many companies have shunned it in so-called self-sanctioning.

However, Chinese and Indian buyers have largely mitigated the effects, as the world’s two most populous countries have continued to snap up crude that has traded at a discount relative to benchmark rates.

Russian oil income remains higher than it was last year because global prices have stayed above $100 for most of 2022.

For example, Tatneft, a Russian oil producer, saw profits jump 52% year-over-year for the first half of 2022, the FT reports. And last month, Russia exported more oil compared to any previous August on record, according to the Institute of International Finance.

The emergence of India and China as top importers of Russian crude has made their participation in the G7’s cap on the price of Russian barrels especially important. Leaders aim to have the plan in place by December 5, when Europe’s ban on seaborne Russian oil imports begins.

India is in talks to join the effort, but Putin seemed unconcerned about energy exports moving forward.

“As far as our resources are concerned, you know, the demand is so great on the world markets that we have no problem selling them,” he said at an economic forum on Wednesday.

* * * * * * *

Russian oil and gas revenues grow by 50 percent – Prime Minister Mishustin

Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said that the level of oil and gas revenues of the Russian budget increased by almost 50 percent after the introduction of Western sanctions, RIA Novosti reports.

Nevertheless, the amount of additional oil and gas revenues, calculated as the difference between actual and basic income levels, amounted to 85.9 billion rubles in August, having thus fallen short of expectations of the Russian Finance Ministry. In early August, the ministry predicted an additional income at about 359.5 billion rubles. The actual amount of excess over the baseline was 273.6 billion rubles lower.

The G7 countries implemented a price cap on Russian oil imports. Russian oil prices are to be capped starting from December 5 (prices on Russian oil products — from February 5, 2023). Prior to the G7 announcement, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak and presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia would not cooperate with the countries that limit prices on Russian oil.

Regno Unito. La Russia non ha bisogno di combatterlo: Truss lo sta già distruggendo.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-09-11.

I conservatori hanno nominato Liz Truss premier del partito e quindi del Governo.

È stato un trionfo dei liberal ed il nuovo premier ha già nominato un gabinetto ove non compare un inglese bianco: puro razzismo ideologico.

Vedremo la Truss all’opera, ad affrontare l’ineluttabile declino del Regno Unito. Il suo programma è quello di attuare l’ideologia liberal.

Hot meals or warm classrooms? UK schools face difficult choices as energy crisis bites

«Rising food and energy costs are exacerbating existing challenges for school caterers, pushing many to “tipping point” and forcing schools to make “difficult choices” between heating classrooms and heating meals»

* * *

«We are supplying and offering extra support into our Baltic allies across the Black Sea»

«In the closed-door meeting, Lavrov had asked Truss whether the U.K. accepted that two Russian regions — Voronezh and Rostov — belonged to Russia and that Russia had the right to move troops and equipment to the areas. Truss replied that “​​the U.K. will never recognize Russian sovereignty over these regions.»

* * * * * * *

Il nuovo primo ministro britannico Liz Truss ha scelto un gabinetto in cui per la prima volta un bianco non ricoprirà una delle quattro posizioni ministeriali più importanti del Paese. Truss ha nominato Kwasi Kwarteng – i cui genitori sono arrivati dal Ghana negli anni ’60 – primo ministro delle Finanze britannico di colore, mentre James Cleverly è il primo ministro degli Esteri di colore. Cleverly, la cui madre proviene dalla Sierra Leone e il cui padre è bianco, in passato ha raccontato di essere stato vittima di bullismo quando era un bambino di razza mista e ha detto che il partito deve fare di più per attirare gli elettori neri.

Tuttavia, i ranghi superiori delle aziende, della magistratura, del servizio civile e dell’esercito sono ancora prevalentemente bianchi.

E nonostante la campagna per la diversità del partito, solo un quarto dei parlamentari conservatori sono donne e il 6% provengono da minoranze. Il presidente si è impegnato a far sì che il suo partito assomigliasse di più alla moderna Gran Bretagna che sperava di guidare.

Il partito di governo ha dovuto affrontare accuse di razzismo, misoginia e islamofobia.

* * *

Se vuole essere rispettata a livello internazionale, la Truss deve lasciarsi alle spalle i giorni da segretario agli Esteri, caratterizzati da gaffe.  E per essere presa sul serio deve superare il danno arrecato alla sua autorità dal periodo in cui è stata in carica come ministro degli Esteri, caratterizzato da gaffe.

Come capo della diplomazia britannica, una serie di errori geografici l’hanno esposta al ridicolo. Sembrava confondere il Mar Baltico con il Mar Nero.

Ha insistito che la Gran Bretagna non avrebbe mai riconosciuto parti della Russia che sono sempre state considerate territorio russo sovrano.

Ed è stata derisa sui social media per aver chiamato il premier irlandese Tea Sock, anziché Taoiseach.

La sua posizione da falco sulla Russia l’ha resa la bête noire del Cremlino. I suoi funzionari hanno cercato di ridicolizzarla. Il suo omologo russo Sergei Lavrov ha detto che parlare con lei è come un dialogo tra sordi e muti e che i fatti semplicemente rimbalzano su di lei.

* * * * * * *

«The new British Prime Minister Liz Truss has selected a cabinet where for the first time a white man will not hold one of the country’s four most important ministerial positions. Truss appointed Kwasi Kwarteng – whose parents came from Ghana in the 1960s – as Britain’s first Black finance minister while James Cleverly is the first Black foreign minister. Cleverly, whose mother hails from Sierra Leone and whose father is white, has in the past spoken about being bullied as a mixed-race child and has said the party needs to do more to attract Black voters»

«However, the upper ranks of business, the judiciary, the civil service and army are all still predominately white.»

And despite the party’s diversity campaign, only a quarter of Conservative members of parliament are women and 6% from minority backgrounds. He set out to ensure that his party more closely resembled the modern Britain it hoped to lead.»

«Ruling party has faced accusations of racism, misogyny and Islamophobia.»

* * *

«Truss needs to put her gaffe-prone days as foreign secretary behind her if she wants international respect.  And to be taken seriously she must get past the damage done to her authority by her gaffe-prone time in office as foreign secretary»

«As Britain’s chief diplomat a series of geographical faux-pas exposed her to ridicule. She seemed to confuse the Baltic and Black seas»

«She insisted Britain would never recognise parts of Russia that have always been regarded as sovereign Russian territory»

«And she was mocked on social media for calling the Irish premier a Tea Sock, rather than Taoiseach»

«Her hawkish stance on Russia has made her the bête noire of the Kremlin. Its officials have sought to ridicule her. Her Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov said talking to her was like a dialogue between the deaf and the dumb and that facts simply “bounce” off  her.»

* * * * * * *

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Liz Truss’s cabinet is Britain’s first without white man in top jobs

– First time no white man in any of four most senior posts

– Kwarteng takes finance portfolio, Cleverly to foreign office

– Diversity now ‘normal’ in Britain, says expert

* * * * * * *

London, Sept 6 (Reuters) – The new British Prime Minister Liz Truss has selected a cabinet where for the first time a white man will not hold one of the country’s four most important ministerial positions.

Truss appointed Kwasi Kwarteng – whose parents came from Ghana in the 1960s – as Britain’s first Black finance minister while James Cleverly is the first Black foreign minister.

Cleverly, whose mother hails from Sierra Leone and whose father is white, has in the past spoken about being bullied as a mixed-race child and has said the party needs to do more to attract Black voters.

Suella Braverman, whose parents came to Britain from Kenya and Mauritius six decades ago, succeeds Priti Patel as the second ethnic minority home secretary, or interior minister, where she will be responsible for police and immigration.

The growing diversity is in part thanks to a push by the Conservative Party in recent years to put forward a more varied set of candidates for parliament.

British governments have until a few decades ago been made up of mostly white men. It took until 2002 for Britain to appoint its first ethnic minority cabinet minister when Paul Boateng was appointed chief secretary to the Treasury.

Rishi Sunak, whose parents came from India, was Kwarteng’s predecessor in the finance job and the runner-up to Truss in the leadership context.

“Politics has set the pace. We now treat it as normal, this diversity,” said Sunder Katwala, director of non-partisan think-tank British Future, which focuses on migration and identity. “The pace of change is extraordinary.”

However, the upper ranks of business, the judiciary, the civil service and army are all still predominately white.

And despite the party’s diversity campaign, only a quarter of Conservative members of parliament are women and 6% from minority backgrounds.

Nevertheless, the Conservatives have the best track record of political firsts among the main political parties, including appointing the first Jewish prime minister in Benjamin Disraeli in 1868.

This is despite the fact ethnic minority voters are much more likely to back the opposition Labour party and the ruling party has faced accusations of racism, misogyny and Islamophobia.

Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson apologised in 2019 for describing Muslim women wearing burqas as looking like letter boxes.

The Conservatives have elected all three of Britain’s female prime ministers, Margaret Thatcher, Theresa May and now Truss. The first lawmaker of Asian descent, Mancherjee Bhownaggree in 1895, also came from the Conservatives.

Johnson assembled the youngest and most ethnically diverse Cabinet in history when he elected prime minister in 2019. His three finance ministers included two men of South Asian origin and one of Kurdish background.

The changes followed a years-long effort by former leader and Prime Minister David Cameron.

When he took over in 2005, the party had just two ethnic minority members of parliament out of 196, and he set out to ensure that his party more closely resembled the modern Britain it hoped to lead.

The next year, Cameron introduced a priority list of female and minority candidates to be selected, many for safe seats in the House of Commons. Truss was a beneficiary of this push.

“A key part of ensuring the strength and resilience of any group, including a political party, is the avoidance of everyone thinking and acting in the same way – the avoidance of group-think,” said James Arbuthnot, a member of the party board’s committee on candidates when Cameron introduced the changes.

But Kwarteng has played down the significance of his ethnicity. He has said that, although he experienced racist insults growing up in the eighties, he does not see himself as a symbol of anyone other than his constituents in Spelthorne, which borders London’s south-west suburbs.

“I actually think that it’s not that much of a big deal,” he said after being appointed as the first Black Conservative front-bench minister. “I think once you’ve made the point, I don’t think it’s something that comes up that much.”

* * * * * * *

Truss needs to put her gaffe-prone days as foreign secretary behind her if she wants international respect

                         Liz Truss wants Britain to play a robust assertive role on the world stage.

She wants a Britain that believes in its values and stands up for them, say aides. That could mean confrontation and no easing of tensions, particularly when it comes to Russia and China.

But she faces challenges. Her domestic agenda will be a constant distraction. And to achieve what she wants will require support from allies which could be undermined by wrangling over Northern Ireland and Brexit. And to be taken seriously she must get past the damage done to her authority by her gaffe-prone time in office as foreign secretary.

As Britain’s chief diplomat a series of geographical faux-pas exposed her to ridicule. She seemed to confuse the Baltic and Black seas. She insisted Britain would never recognise parts of Russia that have always been regarded as sovereign Russian territory. And she was mocked on social media for calling the Irish premier a Tea Sock, rather than Taoiseach.

On the plus side she was the foreign secretary who finally persuaded Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe’s tormentors in Teheran to release her and who presided over a G7 foreign ministers meeting in Liverpool last year that set the stage for a surprisingly resolute and united stance against Russia.

When she speaks about the UK’s role in the world Liz Truss advocates a more positive and confident Britain no longer racked by guilt and shame over its colonial past.

Her aides say Liz Truss has conviction and principles, a firm belief in the values of freedom that underpin what she calls a network of liberty among allies. Her foreign policy seems more likely to be driven by those principles, less by pragmatism.

So on China she is likely to break with previous conservative prime ministers’ reluctance to risk antagonising its government too much, for fear of economic consequences. In private, she has reportedly been willing to call Beijing’s appalling treatment of the Uighurs in Xinjiang a genocide. Her willingness to do so in public will be a key test of her new foreign policy.

Her hawkish stance on Russia has made her the bête noire of the Kremlin. Its officials have sought to ridicule her. Her Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov said talking to her was like a dialogue between the deaf and the dumb and that facts simply “bounce” off her.

                         A need for pragmatism

The Kremlin’s acerbic spokesman Dmitri Peskov says it is “hard to imagine anything worse” than Truss running the UK. Liz Truss will likely welcome that as a badge of honour. She has been a staunch advocate of supporting Ukraine and arming it with heavy weapons.

But to achieve her aims she will need to show pragmatism when it comes to dealing with her allies. She could face a challenge cajoling them to maintain a firm line on Russia as winter’s fuel shortages and cost of living crisis begins to bite.

And they have already warned that a condition of good relations will be Britain honouring commitments made over Northern Ireland in the Brexit agreements.

European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, has already issued a thinly veiled warning saying “we face many challenges together from climate change to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. I look forward to a constructive relationship in full respect of our agreements”.

Truss will need skilful diplomacy to square those considerations with the demands of Brexiteers who helped propel her to power.

                         A Thatcher in search of a Reagan

US president and Irish-American Joe Biden will have similar concerns about Brexit and Northern Ireland. She will hope to work on a close relationship with him when she visits the US for the UN General Assembly this month.

America means more to her than one president though. Supporters say she believes passionately in the Atlantic alliance and the principles it is built on. She may be a Thatcher in search of a Reagan, though for the time being at least with Biden unlikely to fill that role.

As foreign secretary Liz Truss spent too much time with foot firmly in mouth, her aides working overtime to explain away her gaffes.

She will need to build a strong team to avoid doing the same as prime minister and will need to show more finesse if she wants to win the respect and support of allies and make Britain the assertive, confident player she says she envisages on the world stage.

Regno Unito. Cineworld ha presentato istanza di fallimento. 8.9 mld Usd.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-09-10.

Il gruppo britannico Cineworld (CINE.L) ha presentato mercoledì la richiesta di protezione dalla bancarotta negli Stati Uniti, mentre il secondo operatore di catene cinematografiche al mondo lotta per contenere il suo enorme debito. Il deposito del Chapter 11, che consente alle aziende di rimanere in attività mentre cercano di ristrutturare il loro debito, coinvolge le attività di Cineworld negli Stati Uniti, nel Regno Unito e nel Jersey, che coprono la maggior parte delle sue attività.

Le società del gruppo hanno impegni per 1.94 miliardi di dollari da parte dei finanziatori esistenti e Cineworld prevede di gestire le sue attività globali e i suoi cinema come sempre durante il processo. Sebbene Cineworld abbia ribadito che non c’è alcuna garanzia di recupero per i detentori di partecipazioni esistenti, non si aspetta che l’archiviazione comporti una sospensione delle negoziazioni delle sue azioni a Londra.

Mentre l’industria cinematografica sta lottando per riprendersi dalla pandemia, il problema specifico di Cineworld è la quantità di debiti accumulati nel corso degli anni. Il suo debito netto, compresi i debiti di leasing, era di 8.9 miliardi di dollari alla fine del 2021. Escludendo i debiti di leasing, il debito netto era di 4.84 miliardi di dollari a quella data. Il valore di mercato della società era di circa 59 milioni di sterline (68 milioni di dollari) alla chiusura di mercoledì. Cineworld, che gestisce più di 9,000 schermi in 10 Paesi e impiega circa 28,000 persone, ha contratto debiti per finanziare parte dell’acquisto di Regal per 3.6 miliardi di dollari nel 2017 e per sopravvivere alla pandemia.

* * * * * * *

«Britain’s Cineworld Group (CINE.L) on Wednesday filed for bankruptcy protection in the United States as the world’s second-largest cinema chain operator struggles to rein in its massive debt. The Chapter 11 filing, which allows firms to stay in business while trying to restructure their debt, involves Cineworld’s U.S., UK and Jersey operations, covering the bulk of its business.»

«Group companies have $1.94 billion of commitments from existing lenders and Cineworld expects to operate its global business and cinemas as usual throughout the process, it added. While Cineworld reiterated there was no guarantee of any recovery for holders of existing equity interests, it does not expect the filing to result in a suspension of trading in its London shares»

«While the cinema industry has been struggling to recover from the pandemic, Cineworld’s specific issue is the amount of debt it has amassed over the years. Its net debt including lease liabilities stood at $8.9 billion at the end of 2021. Excluding lease liabilities, its net debt was $4.84 billion at that time. The company’s market value was about 59 million pounds ($68 million) at Wednesday’s close. Cineworld, which operates more than 9,000 screens across 10 countries and employs around 28,000 people, took on debt to fund part of its $3.6 billion purchase of Regal in 2017, and more to survive the pandemic.»

* * * * * * *

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World’s second-largest movie chain operator Cineworld files for U.S. bankruptcy

– Cineworld’s battered shares rise almost 10%

– Bankruptcy process involves U.S, UK, Jersey business

– Expects to emerge from Chapter 11 in Q1 2023

* * * * * * *

Britain’s Cineworld Group (CINE.L) on Wednesday filed for bankruptcy protection in the United States as the world’s second-largest cinema chain operator struggles to rein in its massive debt.

The Chapter 11 filing, which allows firms to stay in business while trying to restructure their debt, involves Cineworld’s U.S., UK and Jersey operations, covering the bulk of its business.

Cineworld said it expected to emerge from Chapter 11 protection during the first quarter of 2023 and intended to pay all its vendors in full during the process as well as pay employees their usual wages.

Group companies have $1.94 billion of commitments from existing lenders and Cineworld expects to operate its global business and cinemas as usual throughout the process, it added.

Cineworld shares, which hit a record low of 1.80 pence after Wall Street Journal first reported its potential bankruptcy in August, settled 9.9% higher at 4.29 pence on Wednesday.

While Cineworld reiterated there was no guarantee of any recovery for holders of existing equity interests, it does not expect the filing to result in a suspension of trading in its London shares.

Cineworld also said it expected to change its real estate strategy in the United States and would engage with landlords to improve U.S. cinema lease terms.

While the cinema industry has been struggling to recover from the pandemic, Cineworld’s specific issue is the amount of debt it has amassed over the years.

Its net debt including lease liabilities stood at $8.9 billion at the end of 2021. Excluding lease liabilities, its net debt was $4.84 billion at that time. The company’s market value was about 59 million pounds ($68 million) at Wednesday’s close.

Cineworld, which operates more than 9,000 screens across 10 countries and employs around 28,000 people, took on debt to fund part of its $3.6 billion purchase of Regal in 2017, and more to survive the pandemic.

Two years ago, it abandoned plans to take over rival Cineplex (CGX.TO) and is in a legal dispute with the Canadian firm, which has sought C$1.23 billion ($946 million) in damages.

Blocco europeo. Le fonderie dello alluminio chiudono i battenti. von der Leyen.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-09-09.

Alluminio. Agosto21. Prezzi saliti a 2,619 Usd per tonnellata.

EU aumenta i dazi sull’alluminio cinese.

* * * * * * *

Nel settore dell’alluminio, la chiusura di uno smelter è una decisione angosciante. Una volta che l’energia viene abbassata e le pentole di produzione tornano a temperatura ambiente, potrebbero essere necessari molti mesi e decine di milioni di dollari per riportarle in funzione. Eppure la Norsk Hydro ASA si sta preparando questo mese a fare proprio questo in un enorme impianto in Slovacchia.

Il metallo – utilizzato in un’enorme varietà di prodotti, dai telai delle automobili alle lattine di bibite, fino ai missili balistici – viene prodotto riscaldando materiali crudi fino a farli sciogliere, per poi far passare una corrente elettrica attraverso il crogiolo, il che lo rende un processo ad alta intensità energetica. Una tonnellata di alluminio richiede circa 15 megawattora di energia elettrica, sufficiente per alimentare 5 proprietà in Germania per un anno. Alcuni consumatori stanno inoltre cercando di tenersi alla larga dal metallo proveniente dalla Russia, che spesso è un enorme fornitore dell’Europa.

I problemi del settore dell’alluminio sono un esempio emblematico di ciò che sta accadendo nelle industrie europee ad alta intensità energetica: in tutto il continente, i produttori di fertilizzanti, le fabbriche di cemento, i mulini di metallo e le fonderie di zinco stanno chiudendo piuttosto che pagare costi esorbitanti per il carburante e l’energia elettrica. L’aspetto più preoccupante per il settore manifatturiero dell’area è che non si tratta solo di chiudere per l’inverno. Anche i costi dell’energia elettrica per il 2024 e il 2025 sono aumentati.

Anche i produttori di altri metalli, come lo zinco e il rame, stanno soffrendo molto, ma le enormi quantità di energia necessarie per produrre l’alluminio hanno reso il settore particolarmente poco redditizio. In Germania, l’energia necessaria per produrre una tonnellata di alluminio avrebbe avuto un prezzo di circa 4,200 dollari sul mercato spot venerdì, dopo aver superato i 10,000 dollari il mese scorso, secondo i calcoli di Bloomberg. Il valore dei futures del London Metal Exchange era di circa 2,300 dollari la tonnellata venerdì. Ciò significa che le riduzioni sembrano destinate ad accelerare nel corso dell’inverno.

L’Europa ha già perso circa 1 milione di tonnellate della sua capacità produttiva annuale di alluminio e Patel ha detto di aspettarsi che circa il 25% di questa capacità possa essere completamente ridotta. Altre 500,000 tonnellate sono altamente vulnerabili alla chiusura.

* * * * * * *

«In the aluminum trade, closing a smelter is an agonizing determination. Once energy is lower and the manufacturing “pots” settle again to room temperature, it might take many months and tens of tens of millions of {dollars} to carry them again on-line. Yet Norsk Hydro ASA is getting ready this month to do precisely that at an enormous plant in Slovakia.»

«The metallic — used in an enormous vary of merchandise, from automobile frames and soda cans to ballistic missiles — is produced by heating uncooked supplies till they dissolve, after which working an electrical present by means of the pot, making it massively energy intensive. One ton of aluminum requires about 15 megawatt-hours of electrical energy, sufficient to energy 5 properties in Germany for a yr. Some consumers are additionally attempting to keep away from metallic from Russia, which is often an enormous provider to Europe.»

«The woes of the aluminum sector supply a putting instance of what is taking part in out in Europe’s energy-intensive industries: throughout the continent, fertilizer makers, cement vegetation, metal mills and zinc smelters are additionally shutting down quite than pay eye-watering costs for fuel and electrical energy. Most worryingly for the area’s manufacturing sector: it could not merely be a case of shutting for the winter. Power costs for 2024 and 2025 have additionally soared»

«Producers of different metals like zinc and copper are hurting badly too, however the huge quantities of energy wanted to make aluminum have made the sector notably unprofitable. In Germany, the ability wanted to provide a ton of aluminum would have price roughly $4,200 in the spot market on Friday after topping greater than $10,000 final month, in accordance with Bloomberg calculations. The London Metal Exchange futures worth was round $2,300 a ton on Friday. That means curtailments look set to speed up over the winter.»

«Europe has already misplaced about 1 million tons of its annual aluminum manufacturing capability, and Patel mentioned he expects that about 25% of that could be curtailed completely. Another 500,000 tons is “highly vulnerable” to closure»

* * * * * * *

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Smelters Feeding Europe’s Factories Face an Existential Crisis

(Bloomberg) — In the aluminum trade, closing a smelter is an agonizing determination. Once energy is lower and the manufacturing “pots” settle again to room temperature, it might take many months and tens of tens of millions of {dollars} to carry them again on-line.

Yet Norsk Hydro ASA is getting ready this month to do precisely that at an enormous plant in Slovakia. And it’s not the one one — European manufacturing has dropped to the bottom ranges for the reason that Nineteen Seventies and trade insiders say the escalating vitality disaster is now threatening to create an extinction occasion throughout massive swathes of the area’s aluminum manufacturing.

The rationalization lies in aluminum’s nickname: “congealed electricity.” The metallic — used in an enormous vary of merchandise, from automobile frames and soda cans to ballistic missiles — is produced by heating uncooked supplies till they dissolve, after which working an electrical present by means of the pot, making it massively energy intensive. One ton of aluminum requires about 15 megawatt-hours of electrical energy, sufficient to energy 5 properties in Germany for a yr.

Some smelters are protected by authorities subsidies, long-term electrical energy offers or entry to their very own renewable energy, however the remainder face an unsure future.

As manufacturing drops, the tons of of European producers that flip metallic into components for German vehicles or French airplanes are left more and more reliant on imports that would get costlier. Some consumers are additionally attempting to keep away from metallic from Russia, which is often an enormous provider to Europe.

“History has proven, once aluminum smelters go away, they don’t come back,” mentioned Mark Hansen, chief government of metals buying and selling home Concord Resources Ltd. “There is an argument which extends beyond employment: this is an important base metal commodity, it goes into aircraft, weapons, transport and machinery.”

The trade says it urgently wants authorities assist to outlive. However, any measures like mounted worth caps to maintain power-hungry vegetation working could also be troublesome to justify whereas customers face hovering energy payments and the specter of rationing and blackouts looms.

The woes of the aluminum sector supply a putting instance of what is taking part in out in Europe’s energy-intensive industries: throughout the continent, fertilizer makers, cement vegetation, metal mills and zinc smelters are additionally shutting down quite than pay eye-watering costs for fuel and electrical energy.

Most worryingly for the area’s manufacturing sector: it could not merely be a case of shutting for the winter. Power costs for 2024 and 2025 have additionally soared, threatening the long-term viability of many industries.

At latest market costs, the annual energy invoice for the Slovalco smelter could be round two billion euros, in accordance with Chief Executive Officer Milan Vesely. Slovalco determined to mothball the plant because of a mix of surging vitality costs and a scarcity of emissions compensation that’s out there to smelters elsewhere in the bloc.

Restarting the plant — which may take as much as a yr — will solely be attainable by means of some mixture of cheaper energy, a pointy rise in aluminum costs, and extra authorities assist, Vesely mentioned in an interview this week on the web site.

“This is a genuine existential crisis,” mentioned Paul Voss, director-general of European Aluminium, which represents the area’s largest producers and processors. “We really need to sort something quite quickly, otherwise there will be nothing left to fix.”

Combined with import tariffs that Europe’s struggling producers have fought exhausting to place in place, the rising price of vitality may go away producers dealing with an more and more massive premium over prevailing worldwide costs in order to safe provide, in an additional blow to Europe’s aggressive standing in the worldwide industrial financial system.

“There will be nothing left to fix”

Producers of different metals like zinc and copper are hurting badly too, however the huge quantities of energy wanted to make aluminum have made the sector notably unprofitable.

In Germany, the ability wanted to provide a ton of aluminum would have price roughly $4,200 in the spot market on Friday after topping greater than $10,000 final month, in accordance with Bloomberg calculations. The London Metal Exchange futures worth was round $2,300 a ton on Friday. That means curtailments look set to speed up over the winter.

“Whenever we get downturns in economic growth and smelter margins come under pressure, we see European smelters shutting a decent portion of capacity,” mentioned Uday Patel, senior analysis supervisor at Wood Mackenzie. “When things improve, there are some smelters that never come back online.”

Wood Mackenzie estimates that Europe has already misplaced about 1 million tons of its annual aluminum manufacturing capability, and Patel mentioned he expects that about 25% of that could be curtailed completely. Another 500,000 tons is “highly vulnerable” to closure, Wood Mackenzie estimates.

The curtailments have had little affect on aluminum costs, which have fallen by greater than 40% since a peak in March as merchants brace for a world stoop in demand that might be much more extreme.

But whereas Europe’s manufacturing losses account for about 1.5% of world provide, they may go away customers in Europe more and more reliant on imports that shall be costlier and carry a heavier carbon footprint.

Already, European producers are paying hefty supply charges to get aluminum shipped to native ports, and additional will increase may go away them in an more and more uncompetitive place relative to friends throughout Asia and the US.

The vitality disaster can also be rippling rapidly down the provision chain to firms that purchase aluminum from smelters and rework it into specialist merchandise used in every thing from vehicles to meals packaging.

They use important quantities of fuel in the method, and plenty of need to cross on their surging vitality prices by way of contractual surcharges that would bake in extra prices for producers for years to return.

“The smelter curtailments are only the tip of the iceberg, because you also have downstream players who are buying prime metal and transforming it into products for use in sectors like beverage cans and automotives,” mentioned Michel Van Hoey, a senior associate at McKinsey & Co. These firms have usually seen a ten-fold enhance in their vitality payments and “will not be able to fully pass on those costs without some degree of demand destruction or import substitution.”

At Slovalco, Vesely — who has labored on the firm since 1989 — is hopeful it will likely be in a position to reopen the plant as soon as vitality costs fall, however acknowledges the chance that it may stay offline for years.

“Something must be done if we don’t want to destroy European aluminum production,” he mentioned. “If Europe considers aluminum as a strategic metal, then aluminum plants should have guaranteed prices of electricity.”

Gas Naturale. La crisi in Europa è peggiore di quanto possa sembrare.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-07-16.

La crisi del gas naturale in Europa è peggiore di quanto sembri.

I costi dei combustibili puri in Europa sono ancora ben al di sotto del massimo storico stabilito a marzo. Tuttavia, se si scava un po’ più a fondo, si nota che di solito segnalano un’interruzione più prolungata di quanto i mercati avessero previsto all’indomani dell’invasione dell’Ucraina da parte di Vladimir Putin.

Mentre allora il mercato dei carburanti prezzava una catastrofe di breve durata, che sarebbe durata forse qualche mese, ora segnala un rischio eccessivo per l’inverno successivo, fino al 2023 e, sempre di più, fino al 2024.

A marzo, un produttore tedesco poteva bloccare i costi del carburante per tutto il 2023 a circa 80 euro per megawattora; ora deve pagare 145 euro per coprire la stessa minaccia.

La scorsa settimana, il contratto olandese TTF, un benchmark europeo a pronti, è salito a circa 175 euro.

Il 5 marzo – quando il costo del carburante a pronti è salito a circa 185 euro – il contratto per la fornitura a dicembre 2022 è salito solo a circa 155 euro; la settimana scorsa, quando il valore a pronti era appena inferiore, il contratto di dicembre è stato scambiato a quasi 195 euro.

Il gasdotto Nord Stream 1, collegamento cruciale tra la Russia e l’Unione Europea, è sottoposto a manutenzione annuale dall’11 al 21 luglio.

Tatticamente, è più probabile che Mosca mantenga il trasferimento di una parte del carburante, mantenendo la scelta di tagliare o rallentare i flussi in qualsiasi momento quando lo desidera.

C’è un’ulteriore minaccia in avanti: A un certo punto, Mosca chiuderà completamente il rubinetto, molto probabilmente prima dell’inverno, per cercare di mettere in ginocchio il sistema finanziario tedesco. È una conseguenza che il mercato non ha ancora valutato.

* * * * * * *

«Europe’s natural-gas crisis is worse than it looks»

«European pure fuel costs are nonetheless properly beneath the all-time excessive set in March. Dig a bit deeper, nonetheless, they usually are signaling a extra protracted disruption than markets anticipated within the quick aftermath of  Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine»

«While the fuel market then priced in a short-lived disaster, lasting maybe a few months, it’s now flashing excessive hazard for subsequent winter, by way of 2023 and, more and more, into 2024»

«Back in March, a German producer may lock in fuel costs for all of 2023 at about 80 euros per megawatt hour; now, it has to pay a document excessive 145 euros to hedge the identical worth threat»

«Last week, the intently watched Dutch TTF contract, a European spot benchmark, rose to about 175 euros»

«On March 5 — when spot fuel costs surged to about 185 euros — the contract for supply in December 2022 rose solely to about 155 euros; final week, when the spot worth was barely decrease, the December contract traded at almost 195 euros»

«The Nord Stream 1 pipeline, crucial fuel hyperlink between Russia and the European Union, undergoes annual upkeep from July 11 to July 21»

«Tactically, Moscow is more likely to hold some fuel transferring, retaining the choice of chopping or slowing flows at any time when it chooses»

«There’s additional threat forward: At some level, Moscow will fully flip off the faucet, most likely simply earlier than the winter, to attempt to deliver the German financial system to its knees. That’s an consequence the market hasn’t priced but»

* * * * * * *

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Europe’s Natural-Gas Crisis Is Worse Than It Looks

European pure fuel costs are nonetheless properly beneath the all-time excessive set in March. Dig a bit deeper, nonetheless, they usually are signaling a extra protracted disruption than markets anticipated within the quick aftermath of  Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

While the fuel market then priced in a short-lived disaster, lasting maybe a few months, it’s now flashing excessive hazard for subsequent winter, by way of 2023 and, more and more, into 2024. Over the previous couple of days, the entire European fuel worth curve has repriced at a a lot larger degree.

The shift within the ahead curve has been essentially the most notable improvement of the fuel market in the previous month – one which’s not gathering sufficient consideration in European capitals. But the business is keenly conscious, because it’s bearing the fee. Back in March, a German producer may lock in fuel costs for all of 2023 at about 80 euros per megawatt hour; now, it has to pay a document excessive 145 euros to hedge the identical worth threat.

Last week, the intently watched Dutch TTF contract, a European spot benchmark, rose to about 175 euros, doubling in a month, after Russia minimize provides by way of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline into Germany. Even so, spot fuel costs stay 30% beneath the document excessive settlement of 227 euros set in the course of the early days of the conflict — worrying, however not alarming; costs are excessive, however not that top. After what the market weathered in March, one can perceive why coverage makers aren’t panicking.

But that’s should you ignore the motion on the again finish of the curve. On March 5 — when spot fuel costs surged to about 185 euros — the contract for supply in December 2022 rose solely to about 155 euros; final week, when the spot worth was barely decrease, the December contract traded at almost 195 euros.

A yr into Russia manipulating European fuel provides, the market is lastly satisfied that Moscow will proceed to take action, and maybe with better depth.The first check comes within the subsequent two weeks. The Nord Stream 1 pipeline, crucial fuel hyperlink between Russia and the European Union, undergoes annual upkeep from July 11 to July 21. Berlin fears that Moscow will discover an excuse to maintain it closed for good, chopping fuel provides to Germany fully. After all that Moscow has finished, the German authorities is correct to be involved.Yet, Russia might wish to hold some fuel flowing to protect its long-term leverage. From a game-theory standpoint, that is sensible. Once Russia stops shipments fully, it could possibly now not apply strain. Tactically, Moscow is more likely to hold some fuel transferring, retaining the choice of chopping or slowing flows at any time when it chooses.

Moreover, Nord Stream 1 is the primary route for Russian fuel into Europe listed towards the TTF contract, in line with Goldman Sachs. Not reopening the pipeline after the upkeep shutdown will restrict the revenue that Gazprom, the Russian state-owned fuel large, enjoys from sky-high fuel costs.Russia has clearly written off its fuel relationship with Europe. For now, nonetheless, the Kremlin will proceed to get pleasure from one of the best of each worlds: excessive income and compelling leverage. To obtain its aims, Russia must proceed promoting some fuel into Germany, however at lowered charges, because it’s at the moment doing.The market is correct to reprice the fuel curve; the one query is why it took so lengthy. There’s additional threat forward: At some level, Moscow will fully flip off the faucet, most likely simply earlier than the winter, to attempt to deliver the German financial system to its knees. That’s an consequence the market hasn’t priced but.