Giuseppe Sandro Mela.
2021-08-06.
Riportiamo in fotocopia la parte di interesse del Report dell’U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2021 (Advance Estimate) and Annual Update.
Lo U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis è l’unica autorità cui compete il calcolo e la divulgazione di questa tipologia di risultati.
Da questa si evincono i seguenti macrodati:
– «The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 5.7 percent in the second quarter»
– «The PCE price index increased 6.4 percent»
– «Current-dollar personal income decreased $1.32 trillion in the second quarter, or 22.0 percent»
– «Disposable personal income decreased $1.42 trillion, or 26.1 percent, in the second quarter»
– «Real disposable personal income decreased 30.6 percent, in contrast to an increase of 57.6 percent.»
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Ma la corsa ai Tips dovrebbe contarla lunga.
Poi, quando il reddito personale disponibile reale è diminuito del 30.6% sembrerebbe che la gente non sia poi così allegra come la si vorrebbe dipingere. Se infatti esistono gli investitori, grandi o piccoli che siano, sarebbe altrettanto vero ricordarsi come più della metà degli americani non abbia risorse da investire in borsa. Questi ultimi sono la carne da cannone per l’inflazione.
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«Investors pour $3.2bn into inflation-protected US Treasuries»
«Relentless Tips flow distorts signals from government debt market»
«Investors poured a record $3.2bn into funds investing in US inflation-linked bonds last week, adding to a deluge of cash this year which some analysts say is distorting signals from the government debt market»
«The yield on 10-year inflation-protected US Treasuries, also known as Tips, has plumbed new depths this week, hitting an all-time low of minus 1.17 per cent on Friday»
«others have argued that market pricing has turned too pessimistic»
«Technical factors, which is where you put things that you can’t quite explain»
«he inflow recorded in the week to July 28 is the highest ever, according to analysts at Bank of America, representing 1.9 per cent of the total assets in Tips funds covered by fund tracker EPFR»
«The Tips market is just a less liquid market so it’s more liable to distortions»
«Inflation prints are up at around 4 or 5 per cent, and we don’t know how long it’s going to continue»
«The surge in prices is largely tied to the reopening of the economy and widespread shortages of supplies and labor spawned»
«Adding to the problem is a surprising shortage of labor»
«Millions of people still haven’t returned to work even with job openings at a record high»
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U.S. inflation surges again in June, PCE shows, as shortages plague economy
The rate of inflation has climbed 4% in the past year, the highest level in 13 years.
The numbers: Inflation in the U.S. rose sharply again in June and the increase over the past year remained at a 13-year high, raising the cost of living for consumers and casting a shadow over a strong economic recovery.
The so-called PCE price index rose a sharp 0.5% in June, government figures show.
It was the fourth big upturn in a row and kept the increase over the past 12 months at 4%. That’s the highest level since 2008 and double the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
A separate measure of inflation, the consumer price index, is running even hotter.
The surge in prices is largely tied to the reopening of the economy and widespread shortages of supplies and labor spawned by the pandemic. Americans are spending gobs of money and getting out and about, but businesses can’t keep up with all the demand.
The PCE index is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.
Big picture: The economy is growing rapidly, but there’s a big mismatch between how much customers want to buy and how much businesses can produce. That yawning divide is what’s triggered the surge in inflation.
The biggest hurdle is a lack of key business supplies such as computer chips. These shortages have driven up prices and put pressure on companies to pass the costs onto customers.
Adding to the problem is a surprising shortage of labor. Millions of people still haven’t returned to work even with job openings at a record high. Some companies have had to boost wages or reduce hours to cope with the labor shortage.
The Federal Reserve has said for months inflation would subside as the bottlenecks eased and the central bank is sticking to that view. Yet Chairman Jerome Powell finally acknowledged on Thursday that what he’s called “transitory” inflation could stay high longer than the Fed had anticipated, perhaps well into next year.
The central bank has vastly underestimated the increase in inflation in 2021. Last December it was forecasting just a 1.8% increase.
Key details: The increase in inflation this year got its start from rising oil prices, but the cost of many goods and services are going up.
A separate measure of inflation that strips out volatile food and energy prices as climbed to the highest level since 1992. The core PCE price index rose 0.4% in June, a touch below Wall Street’s forecast.
The increase over the past 12 months crept up to 3.5% from 3.4%, but it appears to show signs of moderating. The core measure is viewed by the Fed as a better indicator of underlying inflation.
What they are saying? “Price pressures should abate over coming months as supply chain dislocations ease and the reopening effect fades,” said chief U.S. economist Rubeela Farooqi of High Frequency Economics.
“Core prices are still running hot but have decelerated in the past two months,” said senior economist Sal Guatieri of BMO Capital Markets. “This will give the Fed some comfort in its transitory story.”
Investors appear to have taken a wait-and-see approach on inflation. Stocks are still rising and yields on U.S. Treasurys bonds have actually declined over the past few months.
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US consumers boost spending 1% as inflation remains high
American consumers increased their spending by 1% in June — a dose of energy for an economy that is quickly rebounding from the pandemic recession but is facing new risks led by the delta variant of the coronavirus.
Washington — American consumers increased their spending by 1% in June — a dose of energy for an economy that is quickly rebounding from the pandemic recession but is facing new risks led by the delta variant of the coronavirus.
At the same time, a key inflation barometer that is closely followed by the Federal Reserve surged 3.5% last month from a year earlier. That was the fastest such 12-month surge since 1991.
June’s solid increase in consumer spending provided further evidence that consumers are driving a strengthening recovery from the pandemic recession.
Friday’s report from the Commerce Department also showed that personal incomes, which provide the fuel for spending, edged up 0.1% in June after two months of big declines, reflecting the waning of several government support programs.
In its report on consumer spending in June, the government said that goods purchases rose a modest 0.5%, while spending on services increased a stronger 1.2%. As vaccinations have increased and the economy has increasingly reopened, more Americans have been shifting their spending away from the physical goods that many purchased while hunkered down at home to to spending on services, from haircuts to airline tickets to restaurant meals.
As a whole, household spending has been powering a robust economic recovery from the pandemic recession. On Thursday, the government estimated that the economy grew at a solid 6.5% annual rate last quarter — and consumer spending drove much of the gain: It advanced at an powerful 11.8% annual rate in the April-June quarter as more Americans left home to shop, travel and eat out.
The rise in spending has fueled businesses’ need for workers, and in many cases they can’t find enough people to fill jobs. Still, last month, America’s employers added a robust 850,000 jobs, and average hourly pay rose a solid 3.6% compared with a year earlier, faster than the pre-pandemic annual pace.
Yet the economy’s prospects are now clouded by the threat of a resurgent coronavirus in the form of the highly contagious delta variant. The U.S. is now averaging about 67,000 confirmed new cases a day, up from only about 12,000 a month ago. Should a surge in viral infections cause many consumers to retreat back to their homes and pull back on spending, it would weaken the recovery.
But many analysts say they think any economic damage inflicted by the delta variant will be offset by consumers still eager to spend some of the savings they accumulated during the pandemic lockdowns. The savings rate in June — 9.4% of after-tax incomes — represents a high level compared with pre-pandemic rates. During the months of lockdowns, households cut back on their debt and accumulated a hefty $2.5 trillion in savings.
“Consumers have very strong balance sheets coming out of the pandemic, which will fuel strong consumer spending and economic growth in the next few years,” said Bill Adams, senior economist at PNC Financial. He noted that the surge in COVID-19 cases was occurring primarily in Southern states that are less likely to re-impose restrictions on businesses.
Adams said he believed that continued strong consumer spending in the second half of the year would increase economic expansion for the year as a whole to around 6.6%. That would mark the strongest calendar-year growth since the mid-1980s.
At the same time, though, rising inflation poses another risk to optimistic forecasts. The inflation index that showed a 3.5% rise year-over-year for June — an index that the Fed monitors most closely — excludes volatile food and energy prices. A separate price index that includes all such items rose by an even larger 4% over the past 12 months. That was the largest such increase since 2008.
But at a news conference this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell underscored his belief that recent inflation readings reflect mainly temporary price spikes in a narrow range of categories — from used cars and airline tickets to hotel rooms and auto rentals — that have been distorted by supply shortages related to the economy’s swift reopening. Those shortages involve items like furniture, appliances, clothing and computer chips, among others.
“Price pressures should abate over coming months as supply-chain dislocations ease,” agreed Rubeela Faroqui, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.
The Biden administration is predicting that consumers will keep spending and provide vital support for the economy for the rest of this year, even as trillions of dollars in government support wind down.
Many outside economists agree. Millions of households will continue to receive child tax credit payments that have begun to be distributed. And many affluent households have benefited from a vast increase in their wealth resulting from surging home equity and stock market gains and seem inclined to spend some portion of it.
The economy is also receiving substantial support from the Fed. This week, the central bank reaffirmed that it will maintain its key short-term interest rate at a record low near zero to keep short-term borrowing costs low. It will also continue to buy government-backed bonds to put downward pressure on long-term loan rates to encourage borrowing and spending.
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Investors pour $3.2bn into inflation-protected US Treasuries
Relentless Tips flow distorts signals from government debt market.
Investors poured a record $3.2bn into funds investing in US inflation-linked bonds last week, adding to a deluge of cash this year which some analysts say is distorting signals from the government debt market. The yield on 10-year inflation-protected US Treasuries, also known as Tips, has plumbed new depths this week, hitting an all-time low of minus 1.17 per cent on Friday. The collapse has come amid a global debt rally which has left investors searching for explanations. While some worry that very low real yields — which measures the returns investors can expect once inflation is taken into account — are warning of a sharp slowdown in growth as the Delta coronavirus variant spreads, others have argued that market pricing has turned too pessimistic as the US economy continues its strong rebound. They have pointed to technical factors in markets to explain the rally, although this idea was rejected by Jay Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, on Wednesday. “Technical factors, which is where you put things that you can’t quite explain,” he quipped about the rally in government debt after the Federal Open Market Committee ended its latest meeting. The relentless flows in Tips — a relatively small and illiquid asset class compared with the wider Treasury market — may be “distorting” the economic signal from real yields, according to Salman Ahmed, global head of macro and strategic asset allocation at Fidelity International. “Is the level of real yields telling us something worrying about the macro environment? I’m not so sure,” Ahmed said. “Given the size of the flows, I’m not sure you can take the economic signal at face value.” The inflow recorded in the week to July 28 is the highest ever, according to analysts at Bank of America, representing 1.9 per cent of the total assets in Tips funds covered by fund tracker EPFR. Inflows so far this year total 16.6 per cent of assets under management in these funds.
Investors have also blamed quiet summer trading conditions and continued bond purchases by the Fed and other central banks for the rally. Those factors, along with inflows from investors, may be particularly pertinent for Tips, according to ING strategist Antoine Bouvet. “The Tips market is just a less liquid market so it’s more liable to distortions,” he said, adding that a succession of very high inflation readings in the US is likely continuing to fuel demand for Tips. “Inflation prints are up at around 4 or 5 per cent, and we don’t know how long it’s going to continue. It’s a risk that a lot of investors will want to hedge.” Hefty inflows into inflation-linked bonds may also help explain why real yields are apparently flashing a warning signal about the economy at a time when other asset classes appear more upbeat, Ahmed said. The S&P 500 index closed near its all-time high on Thursday. Gold, which typically benefits from low real rates and concerns about inflation, has fallen back to $1,828 a troy ounce, from its high for the year of $1,916 in May.
