Pubblicato in: Armamenti, Geopolitica Militare, Russia

Russia. Controllo militare dell’Artico. Le basi sono più importanti delle parole.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-06-13.

Franz Josef Land 001

Il controllo militare, economico e politico dell’Oceano Artico è diventato terreno di confronto tra le grandi potenze.

2021-05-23__ Franz Josef Land 002

Tra le pochissime isole, la Franz Josef Land è l’arcipelago più a nord di tutto il continente: il suo possesso è quindi vitale, sia come punto avanzato di avvistamento radar, sia come base missilistica  di interdizione a missili, aeroplani e navi.

«Franz Josef Land archipelago is the closest land to the North Pole in the eastern hemisphere (about 870 km to the North Pole).

It has been discovered in 1873 by the Austrian – Hungarian “Tegetthoff” expedition, under the leadership of Carl Weyprecht, who named the islands after Emperor Franz Joseph I.

The extremely northern position of the islands attracted expeditions of the pioneer age (late 19th – early 20th century), which usually saw Franz Josef Land as a useful advanced base for attempts to reach the North Pole.

The archipelago was more fully explored by expeditions such as one led by Nansen (who spent the winter of 1895–96 in Franz Josef Land).

In 1926 the islands were taken over by the Soviet Union, for research and military purposes; many of the Russian Polar stations are now abandoned, and the whole archipelago is given back to the wildlife. Polar Bears, walruses, arctic foxes, belugas and whales, and lots of Arctic birds.

Nowadays it is one of rare ‘wild’ places left on Earth – it is unpopulated except for one permanent Russian base.

The archipelago consists of 191 islands, mostly covered with a permanent ice cap. Islands of volcanic origin, including Alexandra Land, Prince George Land, Bell Island, Hooker Island, Prince Rudolf Island, Hall island…» [Ultima0thule]

* * * * * * *

2021-05-23__ Franz Josef Land Saint Nicholas Church 001


«Now Franz Josef Land is home to a Russian military base and the source of added tension in relations with the West»

«The US has once again accused Moscow of “militarising” the Arctic and the head of Russia’s Northern Fleet has told the BBC that Nato and US military activity in the region is “definitely” provocative and on a scale not seen since World War Two»

«The airfield has been upgraded to allow all kinds of planes to land all year round, though emerging on to the tarmac was like stepping on an ice rink»

«Less than 960km (600 miles) below the North Pole, conditions are extreme, with deep snowdrifts and blizzards even in mid-May»

«Even the structure of the base is meant to make a statement: it’s painted in the colours of the Russian flag, bright against the blank canvas all around»

«Known as Arctic Trefoil for its three-leaved shape, the base is the second of its kind in the Arctic – this one is meant for 150 soldiers.»

«But the main show is outside, where Bastion missile launchers raise and lower their firing mechanisms as a soldier in white camouflage stands guard, gun across his chest»

«The missile systems are “to destroy enemy ships”»

«The Northern Fleet put on a far greater show of strength earlier this year when three nuclear submarines smashed through the ice simultaneously, a manoeuvre never seen before»

«Such posturing is making the United States and Nato wary as Russia’s military presence in the region expands to a level not seen since the Cold War»

«we were bussed to a battlecruiser moored in the closed military town of Severomorsk. At 252 metres long, the nuclear-powered Peter the Great is the giant grey flagship of the Northern Fleet.»

«We see such activity as provocative so close to the Russian border where we have very important assets. By that, I mean nuclear forces»

«As the polar ice melts, removing a protective natural curtain, Russia’s long northern frontier will become vulnerable»

«Trade would include exports of the large oil and gas reserves beneath the sea here»

Nota.

Pyotr Velikiy è il nome russo dell’incrociatore atomico Pietro il Grande.

* * * * * * *

Aver costruito, tenuto in manutenzione ed in ottima efficienza bellica una sofisticata base militare in una zona dal clima così avverso significa aver messo a punto una congerie inenarrabile di mezzi: dagli abiti da indossare, a sistemi di arma operativi anche a -50°C, missili e rampe di lancio mobili atte a lavorare a quelle temperature. Per non menzionare anche i mezzi più umili ma indispensabili, quali i lubrificanti che non congelino.

Le beghe legali lascerebbero alquanto sorridenti: le armi comandano.

*


Russia flexes muscles in challenge for Arctic control.

Now Franz Josef Land is home to a Russian military base and the source of added tension in relations with the West.

The US has once again accused Moscow of “militarising” the Arctic and the head of Russia’s Northern Fleet has told the BBC that Nato and US military activity in the region is “definitely” provocative and on a scale not seen since World War Two.

                         Making the Arctic a priority for Russia

We were among the first foreign journalists taken to visit the facility on Alexandra Island, over two hours’ flight from Murmansk up over the Arctic.

The airfield has been upgraded to allow all kinds of planes to land all year round, though emerging on to the tarmac was like stepping on an ice rink.

Less than 960km (600 miles) below the North Pole, conditions are extreme, with deep snowdrifts and blizzards even in mid-May. For a while, rattling along in a military truck, I could make out nothing but white through the window.

In deepest winter the temperature drops to minus 50 degrees C and the soldiers occasionally have to head out in their vehicles to disperse the polar bears who amble right up to the base.

                         ‘Like a space station’

Even the structure of the base is meant to make a statement: it’s painted in the colours of the Russian flag, bright against the blank canvas all around.

Known as Arctic Trefoil for its three-leaved shape, the base is the second of its kind in the Arctic – this one is meant for 150 soldiers.

Ahead of a tour, the commander in charge said it was so high-tech and ecologically efficient it was “like a space station, just in the Arctic emptiness instead of in orbit”.

But the main show is outside, where Bastion missile launchers raise and lower their firing mechanisms as a soldier in white camouflage stands guard, gun across his chest.

The missile systems are “to destroy enemy ships,” another soldier said. They are “effective”, he informed us.

The Northern Fleet put on a far greater show of strength earlier this year when three nuclear submarines smashed through the ice simultaneously, a manoeuvre never seen before. On the same Arctic exercises, two fighter jets flew over the North Pole, refuelling in mid-air.

Such posturing is making the United States and Nato wary as Russia’s military presence in the region expands to a level not seen since the Cold War.

Nato’s spokeswoman confirmed that the alliance had stepped up its patrols and exercises, in response, she said, to a “more challenging security environment”.

                         Blaming Nato for build-up

But Russia doesn’t see things that way.

Before we were flown to the archipelago, we were bussed to a battlecruiser moored in the closed military town of Severomorsk. At 252 metres long, the nuclear-powered Peter the Great is the giant grey flagship of the Northern Fleet.

On board, the Fleet’s commander, Adm Alexander Moiseyev, addressed us in front of a portrait of Peter I, the Tsar who founded Russia’s navy and turned the country towards the West.

But he accused Nato forces and the US of military actions in the Arctic that increased the risk of conflict.

“There haven’t been so many of their forces here for years. Decades. Not since World War Two,” Adm Moiseyev countered, when I put it to him that Nato blamed Russia for the surge in tension. “We see such activity as provocative so close to the Russian border where we have very important assets. By that, I mean nuclear forces.”

As for the Russian build-up, the troops are returning to a region Russia abandoned in the 1990s when the Soviet Union fell apart.

“We’re just recreating the capacity to protect our borders, not to threaten anyone,” argues Lev Voronkov, an Arctic expert from MGIMO university. “After the USSR collapsed, even border posts in that region were left unmanned.”

That won’t be an option for much longer. As the polar ice melts, removing a protective natural curtain, Russia’s long northern frontier will become vulnerable.

                         Land of opportunity

As the Bastion missile launchers danced for the cameras on Alexandra Island, I spotted a Russian ice-breaker cutting through the frozen landscape in the distance. A smaller cargo ship followed in its wake and an iceberg loomed behind both of them.

The vessels were crawling along the northern shipping route that skirts the archipelago and that Russia hopes to develop and control as global warming makes it easier to navigate. Trade would include exports of the large oil and gas reserves beneath the sea here.

Admiral Moiseyev calls his troops the “main instrument” for protecting those economic interests, as well as Russia’s borders.

As competition begins to heat up, our visit to Franz Josef Land was a chance for Russia to flex some muscle and send a message: that its ambitions for the Arctic are great and growing and they are interests it’s ready to defend.

Pubblicato in: Armamenti, Cina, Geopolitica Militare

Cina. I lanciatori dei missili ipersonici DF-17 sono diventati stealth.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-01-20.

DF-17 013

«The Dongfeng-17, is a Chinese solid-fuelled road-mobile medium-range ballistic missile that mounts the DF-ZF Hypersonic Glide Vehicle. The DF-17’s hypersonic armament gives China significant leverage over current conventional ABM’s due to the glide vehicle’s unpredictable ballistic trajectory.

The DF-17 along with the DF-ZF, was officially unveiled at the National Day military parade on 1 October 2019, making this China’s first operational hypersonic weapon systems and one of the world’s first to be put in full initial  ….

The biggest change however, is the obvious usage of a hypersonic glide vehicle rather than a conventional re-entry warhead(s) found in normal ballistic missiles and MIRVs. ….

The DF-ZF HGV operates in a different manner from normal ballistic missiles or even intercontinental ballistic missiles in the first place. Rather than firing and landing in a normal arc, the DF-17’s HGV suppresses its trajectory and accelerates to reach Mach 5.

Due to its extreme speed and suppressed/lower altitude trajectory, intercepting the glide vehicle with ABM shielding becomes far harder and more complex than that of a conventional re-entry vehicle. This is further complicated, as the gliding makes the DF-ZF far more maneuverable; extending both its range and avoiding potential ABM shielding.» [Fonte]

*

«China’s transporter erector launcher (TEL), which carries and fires DF-17 hypersonic missiles, has received a stealth camouflaged cover that makes it more challenging for the US and allies to identify via reconnaissance satellites»

Già il fatto di essere lanciabile da parte di un veicolo terrestre rende difficilmente identificabile il DF-17 da parte della sorveglianza satellitare avversa. Rendendo stealth il veicolo mobile terrestre si rende ancor più difficile la sua identificazione satellitare.

Tenendo con che il missile viaggia a bassa quota alla velocità massima di Mach 5 (~6,000 km/h), il DF-17 colpisce un bersaglio a 2,000 km in poco meno di venti minuti primi. Non solo, il missile è in grado di mutare rotta ed eseguire manovre di disimpegno, fatto questo che lo rende quasi non intercettabile.

Adesso che anche il lanciatore è diventato stealth, tutto questo sistema d’arma sta assumendo una notevole potenzialità dissuasiva.

Si noti come il DF-17 abbia un raggio di azione che include Taiwan.

*


China Makes It Harder For US Spy Satellites To Spot Hypersonic Missiles

China’s transporter erector launcher (TEL), which carries and fires DF-17 hypersonic missiles, has received a stealth camouflaged cover that makes it more challenging for the US and allies to identify via reconnaissance satellites, according to state-run newspaper Global Times

TEL is a ground-based vehicle with an integrated prime mover (tractor unit) that can carry and elevate a DF-17 into a firing position. 

The upgraded TEL was spotted in a video celebrating the founding of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Rocket Force last week and was published initially on the Chinese website 81.cn. 

According to the video, the camouflaged missile transporter has a hypersonic missile encased inside a shell as it traverses desert terrain. 

Shanghai-based news website eastday.com said the TEL is an upgraded version specifically for hauling DF-17s. 

The PLA debuted the DF-17 during a military parade in late 2019. At the time, the TEL hauling the DF-17 had no cover and the entire missile was exposed. 

Camouflaged missile transporters come as DF-17s are being fielded at military installations in Southeast China. 

The missiles have already been deployed in the Fujian and Zhejiang provinces, which are in striking range of Taiwan. 

Beijing’s increased militarization of its southeast coast is very suggestive of preparations for an invasion. 

Pubblicato in: Armamenti, Geopolitica Europea, Geopolitica Militare, Russia

Turkia. Comprerebbe altri S-400 dalla Russia. Non male per un paese Nato.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-08-28.

Istanbul 004

Mr Putin sembrerebbe essere un prestigiatore: ha generato quasi dal nulla un sistema come gli S-400 e quindi li ha tramutati in un affilato strumento diplomatico e politico.

«Russia is likely to sign a contract for delivery of an additional batch of its S-400 missile systems to Turkey next year»

Ovvio che l’occidente lo odi: è un russo che sta facendo gli interessi della Russia.

*


Turkia. In arrivo la seconda consegna di S-400. 2019-08-28.

«The S-400 is a massive upgrade to the S-300, its predecessor which was recently sent to Syria.

Because of its capabilities, several countries including China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, India and Qatar have said they are willing to buy the S-400.

Almost every government that announced it was planning to buy the system was threatened with some kind of diplomatic retaliation from the US, NATO or adversaries.

The reason for this blowback, according to several experts Al Jazeera interviewed, is not only because the S-400 is technologically advanced, it also poses a potential risk for long-standing alliances. ….

The S-400 is among the most advanced air defence systems available, on par with the best the West has to offer, …. Its radars and other sensors, as well as its missiles, cover an extensive area – the radar has a range of at least 600km for surveillance, and its missiles have ranges of up to 400km, ….

It’s precise and it manages to track a very large number of potential targets, including stealth targets. ….»

*


Turkia. Arrivati i primi Sistemi S-400. 2019-07-12.

«Volenti o nolenti però, si apre adesso un severo problema del settore meridionale della Nato, e proprio con la Turkia che ha il controllo dei Dardanelli.

L’Unione Europea è adesso compresa tra le basi russe di Kalinigrad e quelle turke di Murted. Forse, Frau Merkel potrebbe anche mobilitare il proprio esercito di frombolieri armati con le nuove catapulte che tirano massi anche a cinquecento metri. Ferma posizione delle front-hole tedesche: non gliela daremo più.»

*


S-400. Arma militare e diplomatica in Turkia ed in India.

«I russi hanno un segreto che nessuno è mai riuscito a violare. Come siano riusciti a concepire, progettare, costruire e rendere operativi un così grande numero di sistemi missilistici allo stato dell’arte ed il tutto in così poco tempo ed infine a costi irrisori»


9M729, Iskander, Kalibr, S-400, S500. Putin è un gran costruttore di missili.

Cina. Dispiegati nel sud-est asiatico gli S-400 russi.

Medio Oriente. La Russia fornirà sistemi S-400 all’Arabia Saudita.

Turkia. Firmato contratto S-400. Si dice siano già operativi.

*


Nelle abili mani di Mr Putin il sistema di missili anti oggetti volanti S-400 sta transitando da arma temibile a strumento diplomatico. Come arma, l’S-400 sarebbe in grado di intercettare ed abbattere aerei, droni, e missile anche ipersonici con una portata riferita di circa 400 km. Come strumento diplomatico è un mezzo molto utile per gratificare i paesi amici e per stuzzicare l’amicizia degli incerti. Poi, dotarsi di S-400 conferisce allo stato possessore una supremazia locoregionale nei confronti dei paesi viciniori.

Questi sistemi di arma erano una volta appannaggio dei soli Stati Uniti, che li avevano concessi a terzi con grande morigeratezza. Adesso la concorrenza russa inizia a farsi sentire pesantemente.

*


Russia and Turkey likely to sign S-400 missile deal next year: Ifax.

Russia is likely to sign a contract for delivery of an additional batch of its S-400 missile systems to Turkey next year, the Interfax news agency cited Sergei Chemezov, head of state conglomerate Rostec, as saying on Sunday.

Turkey bought a batch of the missile systems from Russia last year, leading to its suspension by Washington from the U.S. F-35 stealth fighter jet programme. The United States has said that Turkey risks U.S. sanctions if it deploys the Russian-made S-400s.

Pubblicato in: Armamenti, Geopolitica Militare, Stati Uniti

Polonia. Ospiterà altri 1,000 soldati Usa ed il Quartier generale dello US Army V Corps.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-08-21.

Polonia 001

«The US has signed a deal with Poland to begin the redeployment of American troops from Germany to the Eastern European country»

«The agreement also makes Poland the new headquarters of the US Army V Corps.»

«Under the pact, another 1,000 US troops will be sent to Poland in addition to the 4,500 soldiers already stationed there»

«The deal also grants the US access to Polish military installations and allows for the modernization of existing facilities and capabilities in Poland»

«Several military commands will also be moved out of Germany»

«In July, the US Department of Defense announced plans to withdraw around 12,000 US military personnel from Germany, reducing its troop presence there from 36,000 to 24,000. Nearly 5,600 service members will be redeployed to NATO countries, including Poland, with 6,400 to return to the US.»

«Pompeo and Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak signed the deal, known as the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), at the Presidential Palace in Warsaw»

* * * * * * *

La Germania è diventata un alleato scarsamente affidabile.

Ha smantellato quasi completamente le sue forze armate, ha ad oggi poco meno che cinquanta carri armati efficienti, e versa alla Nato quote ridicolmente irrisorie. In cambio pretenderebbe che a difenderla da una invasione fossero gli alleati, nell’ottica che tale invasione dovrebbe inevitabilmente portare allo scontro atomico.

Il risultato è semplice: nessuno ha intenzione di morire per Berlino.

La Polonia, che ben ha conosciuto i russi nella fattispecie dei comunisti, ha accolto a braccia aperte le truppe americane e, soprattutto, gli elevati comandi operativi.

Nei fatti, la Nato fa avanzare la propria frontiera operativa subito a ridosso dei paesi nell’orbita politica e militare russa.

*


Pompeo signs deal to move US troops from Germany to Poland.

The US has signed a deal with Poland to begin the redeployment of American troops from Germany to the Eastern European country. The agreement also makes Poland the new headquarters of the US Army V Corps.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has sealed an agreement with Poland to boost the number of American troops in the eastern EU member state.

Under the pact, another 1,000 US troops will be sent to Poland in addition to the 4,500 soldiers already stationed there. The deal also grants the US access to Polish military installations and allows for the modernization of existing facilities and capabilities in Poland.

“This is going to be an extended guarantee: a guarantee that in case of a threat our soldiers are going to stand arm-in-arm,” Polish President Andrzej Duda said on Saturday during the signing ceremony. 

“It will also serve to increase the security of other countries in our part of Europe.”

Several military commands will also be moved out of Germany, among them the US Army V Corps overseas headquarters. It will be based in Poland from next year.

US to withdraw 12,000 military personnel from Germany

In July, the US Department of Defense announced plans to withdraw around 12,000 US military personnel from Germany, reducing its troop presence there from 36,000 to 24,000. Nearly 5,600 service members will be redeployed to NATO countries, including Poland, with 6,400 to return to the US.

The decision followed repeated complaints from President Donald Trump that Berlin wasn’t spending enough on defense or contributing its share to NATO coffers.

Pompeo and Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak signed the deal, known as the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), at the Presidential Palace in Warsaw. The US diplomat is wrapping up a tour of Central Europe, which included visits to the Czech Republic, Austria and Slovenia.

Pubblicato in: Armamenti, Geopolitica Militare, Russia

Putin. Stanno diventando operativi i missile ipersonici per la marina.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-08-08.

2020-08-04__ Putin Iskander 001

I missili ipersonici sono armi tattiche ovvero balistiche capaci di viaggiare molte volte più veloci del suono anche a bassa altitudine, compiendo nel caso mutamenti di rotta ed operazioni di disimpegno.

Sebbene possano essere utilizzati in una guerra di offesa, il loro impiego caratteristico è sulle distanze brevi o medie: l’avversario collimato avrebbe un tempo di pochi minuti per inquadrare l’attacco missilistico e porre in atto le relative difese. Nel caso poi di guerra navale, le portaerei potrebbero essere bersagli preferiti.

Un aspetto che li rende temibili consiste nel fatto che i sistemi radar di avvistamento erano stati progettati per identificare oggetti volanti a velocità di poco superiori a quella del suono.

Al momento è impossibile dire quanto questi missili ipersonici siano affidabili, e nessuno muore dal desiderio di vederli utilizzati al solo scopo di soddisfare questa insana voglietta. Ma la loro stessa presenza rende inquiete tutte le persone che si occupano di codesti problemi con cognizione dei dati di fatto.

* * * * * * *

Russia. I missili intercontinentali ipersonici Avangard sono operativi.

Russia’s ‘invincible’ hypersonic weapon that can strike anywhere in the world in MINUTES will be ready for war by 2020

Russia’s city-destroying super-nuke Avangard that travels at TWENTY times the speed of sound will be ready for take-off next year

Gli Stati Uniti sono in allarme per i super missili ipersonici russi

Missili ipersonici: rottura dell’attuale stabilità strategica tra Stati Uniti, Cina e Russia e rivoluzione nelle tattiche militari

Missili a 6 volte la velocità del suono, testati in Cina nuovi velivoli ipersonici

Putin presenzia al test di Avangard. Un missile a testa nucleare da Mach 20.

Russia. Entra in fase di test il missile ipersonico 3M22 Zircon.

Russia. Schierati gli Iskander a Kalinigrad. Hanno svegliato l’orso che dormiva.

Armamenti Nucleari. È in atto una corsa al riarmo per la prossima guerra.

9M729, Iskander, Kalibr, S-400, S500. Putin è un gran costruttore di missili.

Cina. Dispiegati nel sud-est asiatico gli S-400 russi.

Medio Oriente. La Russia fornirà sistemi S-400 all’Arabia Saudita.

Turkia. Firmato contratto S-400. Si dice siano già operativi.

Russia. I siluri Khishchnik e VA-111 Shkval. Serie minacce alle portaerei.

Russia. Kulikovo, Kaliningrad, ospiterebbe un arsenale atomico russo.

Kaliningrad. Zeppo di missili atomici adesso anche black hole.

* * * * * * *

«Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Sunday the Russian Navy would be armed with hypersonic nuclear strike weapons and underwater nuclear drones, which the defence ministry said were in their final phase of testing.»

«The weapons, some of which have yet to be deployed, include the Poseidon underwater nuclear drone, designed to be carried by submarines, and the Tsirkon (Zircon) hypersonic cruise missile, which can be deployed on surface ships»

«The combination of speed, manoeuvrability and altitude of hypersonic missiles, capable of travelling at more than five times the speed of sound, makes them difficult to track and intercept»

«The widespread deployment of advanced digital technologies that have no equals in the world, including hypersonic strike systems and underwater drones, will give the fleet unique advantages and increased combat capabilities»

«the defence ministry said testing of the Belgorod, the first submarine capable of carrying the Poseidon drones, was underway and testing of the weapons systems was nearing completion.»

* * * * * * *

Sembrerebbe essere cosa logica che anche gli Stati Uniti dispongano di armamenti di tali caratteristiche. Tuttavia si dovrebbe notare come i loro potenziali avversari non dispongano di una marineria militare in grado di agire a livello globale: nei fatti questa tipologia di missili sarebbe per loro di ben scarsa utilità.

*


Putin says Russian Navy to get hypersonic nuclear strike weapons.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Sunday the Russian Navy would be armed with hypersonic nuclear strike weapons and underwater nuclear drones, which the defence ministry said were in their final phase of testing.

Putin, who says he does not want an arms race, has often spoken of a new generation of Russian nuclear weapons that he says are unequalled and can hit almost anywhere in the world. Some Western experts have questioned how advanced they are.

The weapons, some of which have yet to be deployed, include the Poseidon underwater nuclear drone, designed to be carried by submarines, and the Tsirkon (Zircon) hypersonic cruise missile, which can be deployed on surface ships.

The combination of speed, manoeuvrability and altitude of hypersonic missiles, capable of travelling at more than five times the speed of sound, makes them difficult to track and intercept.

Speaking in St Petersburg at an annual naval parade that showcases Russia’s best ships, nuclear submarines and naval aviation, Putin said the navy’s capabilities were growing and it would get 40 new vessels this year.

He did not specify when it would receive new hypersonic weapons, but suggested that day was drawing closer.

“The widespread deployment of advanced digital technologies that have no equals in the world, including hypersonic strike systems and underwater drones, will give the fleet unique advantages and increased combat capabilities,” Putin said.

In a separate statement released via Russian news agencies, the defence ministry said testing of the Belgorod, the first submarine capable of carrying the Poseidon drones, was underway and testing of the weapons systems was nearing completion.

“Work is being successfully completed to create modern weapons systems for the Navy,” it was cited as saying.

Putin last year threatened to deploy hypersonic missiles on ships and submarines that could lurk outside U.S. territorial waters if the United States moved to deploy intermediate-range nuclear weapons in Europe.

Washington has not deployed such missiles in Europe, but Moscow is worried it might.

Pubblicato in: Armamenti, Geopolitica Militare

Armamenti Nucleari. È in atto una corsa al riarmo per la prossima guerra.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-06-24.

2020-06-20__Guerra Atomica 013

Nei loro settanta anni di esistenza, gli armamenti atomici hanno subito continui sviluppo e miglioramenti. Gli attuali vettori hanno anche loro raggiunto un elevato grado di sofisticazione e sono state sviluppate sia testate ad altissimo potenziale, sia a potenziale minimo, per un impiego tattico.

Negli ultimi lustri ha preso campo una nuova corsa agli armamenti atomici, con ampliamento della platea degli stati che ne dispongono. Tutto questo esita in nuovi equilibri di precaria e difficile gestione.

* * * * * * *

«This nuclear arms race is worse than the last one»

«With the stability of the Cold War gone, the risk of nuclear war keeps rising»

«Only old-fashioned multilateralism can save us in the long term.»

«Yes, the global stockpile of nuclear warheads decreased slightly last year, …. But that’s only because the U.S. and Russia, the two countries that still account for more than 90% of global nuclear stocks, dismantled some of their obsolescent warheads.»

«Meanwhile, all nine countries with nukes are modernizing their other warheads and delivery systems»

«France successfully fired, from a submarine, a nuclear missile that can travel between continents at 20 times the speed of sound»

«Even more worryingly, states are reviewing their strategies for using these weapons»

«Gone is the amoral but logical stability of the Cold War, when two superpowers kept each other and the world in check with a credible threat of “Mutual Assured Destruction” (MAD)»

«Russia, for instance, increasingly sees smaller “tactical” warheads as a possible way to compensate for weaknesses in its other military forces»

«There’s also speculation that India could soften its policy, adopted in 1998, never to be the first to use a nuclear weapon»

«Such thought experiments are no small matter for a country with two hostile and nuclear-armed neighbors, Pakistan and China»

«Meanwhile, all efforts to limit or reduce nuclear weapons have ground to a halt»

«A treaty between the U.S. and the Soviet Union that eliminated land-based missiles with short and intermediate ranges collapsed last year»

«China, which sees itself as merely catching up with the two nuclear kingpins, balks at accepting any limits»

«Between naivety in Germany, belligerence in Russia, ambition in China, inanity in Trumpist America and brinkmanship in North Korea, the outlook is grim»

«Egomaniacs or rogues could be tempted to test the boundaries in their foes’ deterrence plans, and human error could compound the folly»

«What’s more, the climate in international relations isn’t exactly conducive to solutions»

* * * * * * *

La messa in linea di missili ipersonici, quello francese citato viaggia a venti volte la velocità del suono, e la disponibilità di ordigni di bassissima potenza genera da una parte l’impossibilità di intercettazione, dall’altra il prurito di poter risolvere un conflitto solo con armi  tattiche.

Nel contempo, se per arrivare ai vertici di una superpotenza l’aspra difficoltà dell’impresa seleziona persone dai nervi ben saldi, nel caso di piccoli stati il pericolo che chi abbia il potere sia “egomaniacs” sembrerebbe essere ben poco trascurabile. Si aggiunga infine il fatto che “human error could compound the folly”.

Per sintetizzare, le possibilità di un conflitto che usi armamenti atomici è sicuramente aumentato.

*


Bloomberg. This Nuclear Arms Race Is Worse Than the Last One

With the stability of the Cold War gone, the risk of nuclear war keeps rising. Only old-fashioned multilateralism can save us in the long term.

As long as the pandemic rages, the world’s leaders are understandably preoccupied with the threat of disease. But there are other dangers to humanity that demand attention. One of the most frightening is nuclear war. Unfortunately, the risk of that happening keeps rising.

The headline numbers are misleading. Yes, the global stockpile of nuclear warheads decreased slightly last year, according to the latest report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. But that’s only because the U.S. and Russia, the two countries that still account for more than 90% of global nuclear stocks, dismantled some of their obsolescent warheads.

Meanwhile, all nine countries with nukes are modernizing their other warheads and delivery systems. In a test just last week, France successfully fired, from a submarine, a nuclear missile that can travel between continents at 20 times the speed of sound. Other countries, most notably China, are adding to their nuclear stashes as fast as they can.

Even more worryingly, states are reviewing their strategies for using these weapons. Gone is the amoral but logical stability of the Cold War, when two superpowers kept each other and the world in check with a credible threat of “Mutual Assured Destruction” (MAD).

Russia, for instance, increasingly sees smaller “tactical” warheads as a possible way to compensate for weaknesses in its other military forces. It’s conceivable that a conflict starting with hybrid warfare — ranging from disinformation campaigns to soldiers in unmarked uniforms — could escalate to a conventional war and a limited nuclear strike, inviting a counter strike and so forth.

There’s also speculation that India could soften its policy, adopted in 1998, never to be the first to use a nuclear weapon. Such thought experiments are no small matter for a country with two hostile and nuclear-armed neighbors, Pakistan and China. Just this week, India and China clashed again over their disputed border in the Himalayas. What North Korea could get up to in a crisis that it itself provokes is anybody’s guess.        

Meanwhile, all efforts to limit or reduce nuclear weapons have ground to a halt. A treaty between the U.S. and the Soviet Union that eliminated land-based missiles with short and intermediate ranges collapsed last year, after the U.S. accused Russia of cheating.

And the two old foes aren’t even close to extending their only remaining arms-control agreement, called New START, which expires in February. One reason for that failure was America’s insistence that the third and rising superpower should join the negotiations. But China, which sees itself as merely catching up with the two nuclear kingpins, balks at accepting any limits.

Progress has also stalled in updating the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, exactly 50 years after it took effect. It sought to keep additional countries from making bombs by encouraging them to use fissile material (uranium or plutonium) only for civilian purposes such as generating electricity. But five countries have gone nuclear since it was signed. Worse, game theory suggests that it’s rational for more states to follow. Iran could be next.

The only international agreement to ban these evil weapons altogether, the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons passed by the United Nations in 2017, has the same chance as a snowball in a fission event. No member of the nuclear club intends to ratify it, nor do many other countries.

As if all that weren’t bad enough, doubt is also creeping into the transatlantic alliance, undermining its credibility and thus the deterrence that’s so vital to preventing war. Germans, in particular, are aghast at their treatment by U.S. President Donald Trump, who this week chastised them as “delinquent” allies and confirmed that he will withdraw about one in four American troops from Germany.

In May, several leaders of Germany’s Social Democrats, a party with a tradition of anti-Americanism, even suggested opting out of NATO’s policy of “nuclear sharing,” whereby some allies, such as Germany, forego building their own nukes but provide the airplanes to deliver U.S. bombs in a pinch. This policy is meant to make joint deterrence more credible. But to German lefties, distrust of Trump is enough reason to challenge its logic. Fortunately, Chancellor Angela Merkel quickly overruled them.

Between naivety in Germany, belligerence in Russia, ambition in China, inanity in Trumpist America and brinkmanship in North Korea, the outlook is grim. Egomaniacs or rogues could be tempted to test the boundaries in their foes’ deterrence plans, and human error could compound the folly.

What’s more, the climate in international relations isn’t exactly conducive to solutions. The world leaders who matter most are so busy with “trade wars” and “vaccine nationalism,” they can barely even imagine sitting around a table with people they loathe but should talk to, an activity known formerly as diplomacy.

But they must rise above themselves. If they can’t, the rest of us, from voters to the military brass, should force them. Only patient multilateralism, as unsexy as that polysyllabic Latin word may sound to alpha males, can save us in the long run. Otherwise, to use a Cold War metaphor, the nations of the world will find themselves standing in a room awash with gasoline, each counting who has how many matches, until one is lit.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Geopolitica Europea, Geopolitica Militare, Unione Europea

Malta. Denuncia la Francia, abbandona l’Operazione Irini e pone il veto sui migranti.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-05-08.

Malta 017

Gli effetti della sentenza della Corte Costituzionale tedesca che disconosce l’autorità della Corte Europea di Giustizia sugli stati membri sta incominciando ad avere i suoi effetti collaterali.

Suprema Corte, ECB e Corte Costituzionale tedesca, ovvero il chaos.

Questa sentenza infatti distrugge alla base il residuo potere politico dei liberal socialisti europei, e silura loro e la Francia in modo tale da «unsettling to the EU».

*

Malta si è riappropriata della propria sovranità nazionale, e lo ha fatto usando parole mai udite da decenni, perché esprimevano la pura verità.

Migranti clandestini illegali?

Ma facciano il piacere!!

«human traffickers».

* * * * * * *

«Maltese government to inform EC it will no longer provide boarding team to Operation Irini, which is attempting to stop Turkish weapons to Libyan GNA»

«Malta has formally given notice to the European Commission that will no longer commit any military assets to the EU’s Operation Irini, a naval mission launched to enforce the arms embargo to Libya in a bid to stifle warring parties in the North African country»

«The move is a sop to Turkey, which is actively providing weapons to the UN-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) by sea, in the hope that it will lead to the GNA coming down hard on human traffickers sending out migrants on boat through the Central Mediterranean route. »

«Malta wants to keep its ports shut to migrants rescued at sea because of the coronavirus pandemic. But the country is also suffering from a lack of a migrant relocation framework that shares the responsibility of rescued people at sea among all EU member states»

«Malta has now told the Special Athena Committee it will veto decisions on Operation Irini that concern spending procedures for disembarkation of migrants, port diversions, and the eligibility of drones (unmanned aerial vehicles).»

«Malta told the committee it is facing an “unprecedented crisis” and disproportionate flows as a result of human smuggling and criminal activities in the Central Mediterranean, citing a 438% increase of arrivals in Malta through this route»

«The government said there was had been no tangible support and solidarity from EU partners despite many requests for relocation and for discussions on a permanent solution»

«The newly launched EUNAVFOR MED Irini disproportionately affects the GNA, whose weapons are mostly supplied by Turkey by sea, because it has little impact on the GNA’s rival, military commander Khalifa Haftar, whose Libyan National Army receives supplies by air and land across the Libya-Egypt border, as well as from the United Arab Emirates»

«in a bid to build serious bridges with Turkey and ‘unsettle’ the EU’s big member states»

«The first three months have seen a 400% increase in migrant arrivals in the Central Mediterranean but close to nil in the Eastern side of Libya, which is blockaded by EU vessels»

* * *

«The Greek government is itself inimical to Turkish military interests, and France supports the strongman ambitions of Khalifa Haftar, making Malta’s move unsettling to the EU»

«Irini could indeed fuel more fighting and undermine Europe’s credibility as an honest broker, because the operation stops mainly weapons from Turkey to the GNA and not Haftar’s backers Egypt and the UAE»

«Egypt and the UAE have backed Haftar for many years, and more recently Russia has also provided him with support.»

«Further adding intrigue to the mix is that France supports Haftar because they see the strongman as a guarantee of stability in the region against terrorists.»

* * * * * * *

Malta denuncia la Francia, abbandona l’Operazione Irini ed annuncia il veto in Consiglio Europeo sui finanziamenti ai migranti.

Usa parole mai udite, perché vere:  «human traffickers», «it will veto decisions on Operation Irini that concern spending procedures for disembarkation of migrants», «France supports Haftar because they see the strongman as a guarantee of stability in the region».

Questa azione è volta ad «unsettling to the EU».


*

Malta Today. Malta vetoes Irini spending after withdrawing from EU naval mission.

Maltese government to inform EC it will no longer provide boarding team to Operation Irini, which is attempting to stop Turkish weapons to Libyan GNA.

Malta has formally given notice to the European Commission that will no longer commit any military assets to the EU’s Operation Irini, a naval mission launched to enforce the arms embargo to Libya in a bid to stifle warring parties in the North African country.

The move is a sop to Turkey, which is actively providing weapons to the UN-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) by sea, in the hope that it will lead to the GNA coming down hard on human traffickers sending out migrants on boat through the Central Mediterranean route.

Malta wants to keep its ports shut to migrants rescued at sea because of the coronavirus pandemic. But the country is also suffering from a lack of a migrant relocation framework that shares the responsibility of rescued people at sea among all EU member states.

Malta has now told the Special Athena Committee it will veto decisions on Operation Irini that concern spending procedures for disembarkation of migrants, port diversions, and the eligibility of drones (unmanned aerial vehicles).

Malta told the committee it is facing an “unprecedented crisis” and disproportionate flows as a result of human smuggling and criminal activities in the Central Mediterranean, citing a 438% increase of arrivals in Malta through this route.

The government said there was had been no tangible support and solidarity from EU partners despite many requests for relocation and for discussions on a permanent solution.

The newly launched EUNAVFOR MED Irini disproportionately affects the GNA, whose weapons are mostly supplied by Turkey by sea, because it has little impact on the GNA’s rival, military commander Khalifa Haftar, whose Libyan National Army receives supplies by air and land across the Libya-Egypt border, as well as from the United Arab Emirates. These are harder to track, and impossible for Irini to intercept.

Malta’s rapprochement with Turkey continued this week with foreign minister Evarist Bartolo meeting the Turkish ambassador in Valletta, while Home Affairs Minister Byron Camilleri has started informal talks with Turkish national defence minister Hulusu Akar, in a bid to build serious bridges with Turkey and ‘unsettle’ the EU’s big member states.

The first three months have seen a 400% increase in migrant arrivals in the Central Mediterranean but close to nil in the Eastern side of Libya, which is blockaded by EU vessels.

The operation’s commander is assigned to Italy and Greece every six months alternatively. Initially, the operation will have three vessels contributed by France, Greece and Italy, one Maltese boarding team and three directly assigned patrol aircrafts Germany, Luxembourg and Poland, and the same number of vessels and aircraft in associated support.

The Greek government is itself inimical to Turkish military interests, and France supports the strongman ambitions of Khalifa Haftar, making Malta’s move unsettling to the EU.

Irini could indeed fuel more fighting and undermine Europe’s credibility as an honest broker, because the operation stops mainly weapons from Turkey to the GNA and not Haftar’s backers Egypt and the UAE. 

Egypt and the UAE have backed Haftar for many years, and more recently Russia has also provided him with support. Turkey only recently began backing the GNA with military assistance in exchange for a controversial maritime agreement that divides up much of the Eastern Mediterranean between Turkey and Libya. 

And this has angered Greece, which is logistically running Operation Irini, because it cuts into its Exclusive Economic Zone around Crete.

It also means Irini could strengthen Haftar’s relative position. In fact, it could encourage him not to halt the siege of Tripoli or agree to a ceasefire. It also fails to put any pressure on Egypt or the UAE to restrain him at a time when the coronavirus pandemic spreads through Libya. 

Further adding intrigue to the mix is that France supports Haftar because they see the strongman as a guarantee of stability in the region against terrorists. Turkey’s support of the GNA also has meant that Greece and Cyprus are turning towards Haftar, because their ultimate aim is to prevent Turkey from having influence in the Eastern Mediterranean. 

Pubblicato in: Armamenti, Geopolitica Militare, Putin, Russia

Russia. I missili intercontinentali ipersonici Avangard sono operativi.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-01-23.

Putin Vladimir 012

«La Russia ha annunciato che il sistema di missili ipersonici Avangard, con una gettata intercontinentale, è diventato operativo. E’ quanto si legge in un comunicato del ministero della Difesa in cui si afferma che il generale Sergei Shoigu, ministro della Difesa, “ha riferito al presidente Vladimir Putin che il primo missile armato con il più recente sistema missilistico strategico Avangard, con un veicolo dotato di una traiettoria ipersonica, è operativo dalle 10 del mattino, ora di Mosca, del 27 dicembre 2019”.

Secondo quanto riportato dalla Tass il primo missile dotato di un veicolo ipersonico Avangard sarebbe capace di volare ad una velocità 27 volte superiore a quella del suono. Putin aveva rivelato questo tipo di armi durante il suo discorso sullo stato della nazione nel marzo del 2018, affermando che contro il tipo di traiettoria di questo missile sarebbero stati inutili gli attuali sistemi di difesa anti missilistica.»

* * * * * *

«Avangard capable of carrying 2-megaton nuclear weapon at 27 times the speed of sound»

« The president described the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle, which can fly at 27 times the speed of sound, as a technological breakthrough comparable to the 1957 Soviet launch of the first satellite »

«The Avangard is launched on top of an intercontinental ballistic missile, but, unlike a regular missile warhead, which follows a predictable path after separation, it can make sharp manoeuvres en route to its target, making it harder to intercept»

* * * * * *

L’Avangard è un concentrato di tecnologie impensate ed impensabili. Viaggia ad una velocità ventisette volte quella del suono, può eseguire manovre diversive, e non brucia pur subendo con l’atmosfera un attrito impressionante. Sembrerebbe che usi sistemi endocavitari perfezionati.

I russi hanno già sviluppato e resi operativi missili a corto – medio raggio ipersonici: tra questi degni di nota i missili antinave ed i siluri.

Russia’s ‘invincible’ hypersonic weapon that can strike anywhere in the world in MINUTES will be ready for war by 2020

Russia’s city-destroying super-nuke Avangard that travels at TWENTY times the speed of sound will be ready for take-off next year

Gli Stati Uniti sono in allarme per i super missili ipersonici russi

Missili ipersonici: rottura dell’attuale stabilità strategica tra Stati Uniti, Cina e Russia e rivoluzione nelle tattiche militari

Missili a 6 volte la velocità del suono, testati in Cina nuovi velivoli ipersonici

Putin presenzia al test di Avangard. Un missile a testa nucleare da Mach 20.

Russia. Entra in fase di test il missile ipersonico 3M22 Zircon.

Russia. Schierati gli Iskander a Kalinigrad. Hanno svegliato l’orso che dormiva.

* * * * * *

L’Unione Europea spende ogni anno per la difesa 331.124 miliardi di dollari. La Francia ne spende 50.9, la Germania 39.4.

La Russia ne spende 66.4 miliardi.

Eppure in Russia è più facile trovare un set di sottomarini nucleari armati di missili balistici a testata atomica, missili balistici ed anti-tutto trattati all’ingrosso, i carri armati T-14 li usano anche come trattori. Insomma, camminando per le strade anche di piccole città ci si inciampa più volte in ogni sorta armamenti allo stato dell’arte.

Ma nessuno si stupirebbe se i russi producessero anche archi e frecce: non si sa mai.

Come facciano i russi a disporre di simili armamenti avendo a disposizione un budget militare di poco superiore a quello francese è un enigma incomprensibile.

Nota.

I 331.124 miliardi che l’Unione Europea spende per la difesa irrorano copiosamente le tasche private dei liberal socialisti: in Russia finirebbero tutti in un battibaleno sopra il circolo polare artico a coltivare fiordalisi e piante tropicali.

*


The Guardian. 2019-12-28. Russia deploys first hypersonic missiles

Avangard capable of carrying 2-megaton nuclear weapon at 27 times the speed of sound

Russia has deployed its first regiment of hypersonic nuclear-capable missiles, with Vladimir Putin boasting that it puts his country in a class of its own.

The president described the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle, which can fly at 27 times the speed of sound, as a technological breakthrough comparable to the 1957 Soviet launch of the first satellite.

Putin has said Russia’s new generation of nuclear weapons can hit almost any point in the world and evade a US-built missile shield, though some western experts have questioned how advanced some of the weapons programmes are.

The Avangard is launched on top of an intercontinental ballistic missile, but, unlike a regular missile warhead, which follows a predictable path after separation, it can make sharp manoeuvres en route to its target, making it harder to intercept.

The defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, told Putin the first missile unit equipped with the Avangard had entered combat duty.

“I congratulate you on this landmark event for the military and the entire nation,” Shoigu said later during a conference call with top military leaders.

The strategic missile forces chief, Gen Sergei Karakaev, said during the call that the Avangard had been put on duty with a unit in the Orenburg region in the southern Ural mountains.

Putin unveiled the Avangard and other prospective weapons systems in his state-of-the-nation address in March 2018, saying its ability to make sharp manoeuvres on its way to a target would render missile defense useless.

“It heads to target like a meteorite, like a fireball,” he said at the time.

The Russian leader said the Avangard had been designed using new composite materials to withstand temperatures of up to 2,000C (3,632F) which can be reached while travelling at hypersonic speeds. The missile can carry a nuclear weapon of up to 2 megatons.

Putin has said Russia had to develop the Avangard and other weapons systems because of US efforts to develop a missile defence system that he claimed could erode Russia’s nuclear deterrent. Moscow has scoffed at US claims that its missile shield isn’t intended to counter Russia’s missile arsenals.

This week, Putin noted that for the first time Russia was leading the world in developing a new class of weapons, unlike in the past when it was catching up with the US.

In December 2018, the Avangard was launched from the Dombarovskiy missile base in the southern Urals and hit a practice target on the Kura shooting range on the Kamchatka peninsula, 3,700 miles (6,000km) away.

The defence ministry said last month it had demonstrated the Avangard to a team of US inspectors as part of transparency measures under the New Start nuclear arms treaty between the two countries.

China has tested its own hypersonic glide vehicle, believed to be capable of travelling at least five times the speed of sound. It displayed the weapon called Dong Feng 17, or DF-17, at a military parade marking the 70th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese state.

US officials have talked about putting a layer of sensors in space to more quickly detect enemy missiles, particularly the hypersonic weapons. The administration also plans to study the idea of basing interceptors in space, so the US can strike incoming missiles during the first minutes of flight when the booster engines are still burning.

The Pentagon has been working on developing hypersonic weapons in recent years, and the defence secretary, Mark Esper, said in August that he believed it would be a couple of years before the US had one.

*


Aljazeera. 2019-12-28. Avangard: Russia deploys hypersonic nuclear-capable missiles

Following years of tests, first missile unit equipped with Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle enters combat duty.

Russia‘s defence minister reported to President Vladimir Putin that a new hypersonic weapon of intercontinental range became operational Friday following years of tests.

Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu informed Putin that the first missile unit equipped with the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle entered combat duty, the Defence Ministry said.

The military has said that the Avangard is capable of flying 27 times faster than the speed of sound.

“I congratulate you on this landmark event for the military and the entire nation,” Shoigu said during a conference call with top military officials.

The Strategic Missile Forces chief, General Sergei Karakayev, said during the call that the Avangard was put on duty with a unit in the Orenburg region in the southern Ural Mountains.

Putin unveiled the Avangard among other prospective weapons systems in his state-of-the-nation address in March 2018, noting that its ability to make sharp manoeuvres on its way to a target will render missile defence useless.

“It heads to target like a meteorite, like a fireball,” he said then.

Putin described the Avangard’s creation as a technological breakthrough comparable to the 1957 Soviet launch of the first satellite.

The Russian leader noted that Avangard is designed using new composite materials to withstand temperatures of up to 2,000 Celsius (3,632 Fahrenheit) resulting from a flight through the atmosphere at hypersonic speeds.

The new Russian weapon and a similar system being developed by China have troubled the United States, which has pondered defence strategies.

Putin has charged that Russia had to develop the Avangard and other prospective weapons systems because of the US efforts to develop a missile defence system that he claimed could erode Russia’s nuclear deterrent.

Moscow has scoffed at the US claims that its missile shield is not intended to counter Russia’s massive missile arsenals.

Earlier this week, Putin emphasised that Russia is the only country armed with hypersonic weapons. He noted that for the first time in history, Russia is now leading the world in developing an entirely new class of weapons, unlike in the past when it was catching up with the US.

In December 2018, the Avangard was launched from the Dombarovskiy missile base in the southern Urals and successfully hit a practice target on the Kura shooting range on Kamchatka, 6,000 kilometres (3,700 miles) away.

Russian media reports indicated that the Avangard will first be mounted on Soviet-built RS-18B intercontinental ballistic missiles, code-named SS-19 by NATO.

It is expected to be fitted to the prospective Sarmat heavy intercontinental ballistic missile after it becomes operational.

The Defence Ministry said last month that it demonstrated the Avangard to a team of US inspectors as part of transparency measures under the New Start nuclear arms treaty with the US.

The US has mulled new defence strategies to counter Russian and Chinese hypersonic weapons.

US officials have talked about putting a layer of sensors in space to more quickly detect enemy missiles, particularly the hypersonic weapons. The administration also plans to study the idea of basing interceptors in space, so the US can strike incoming enemy missiles during the first minutes of flight when the booster engines are still burning.

The Pentagon also has been working on the development of hypersonic weapons in recent years, and defence secretary Mark Esper said in August that he believes “it’s probably a matter of a couple of years” before the US has one.

He has called it a priority as the military works to develop new long-range fire capabilities.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Geopolitica Militare, Materie Prime

Cina. Export terre rare -16%. Industrie militari i crisi.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-06-20.

Cinaa_Esercito_Terracotta_04__

Avevamo già anticipato l’argomento:

Usa, Cina e Terre Rare. Ora interviene anche il Pentagono.

Silenziosa come suo solito, la Cina è passata ai fatti.

«China’s rare earth exports in May fell by 16% from April to 3,640 tonnes, according to customs data released last week»

«Other proposals heard at the symposiums included accelerating the development of high-end downstream industries and establishing a “traceability mechanism” allowing every shipment of exported rare earth to be tracked»

«China will also step up efforts to combat illegal rare earth mining and promote green development of the rare earth industry»

«China should also work out a list of foreign end-users of Chinese rare earths»

* * *

«Military equipment firms in the United States will likely have their supply of Chinese rare earths restricted, the Global Times said on Monday, after China’s state economic planner confirmed industry experts have proposed export controls»

* * * * * * *

Ad una contrazione dell’export cinese delle terre rare del 16% corrisponderebbe una contrazione della produzione dei prodotti elettronici del 12%, quanto basterebbe per mandare in crisi tutto questo settore.

Per non parlare poi del comparto militare.

Sicuramente l’estrazione mineraria delle terre rare è tutto fuorché semplice ed ecologica, ed i paesi occidentali hanno anche caricato il settore di una congerie di leggi, normativi e regolamenti che, se applicati, comporterebbero costi di estrazione proibitivi.

Poi, per soprammercato, gli occidentali sono troppo civili per andare a lavorare in una miniera né, tanto meno, per sopportarne l’esistenza sotto casa.

*

Il figliol prodigo si decise a tornare a casa quando fu ridotto alla fame, a desiderare ciò che era dato da mangiare ai porci ed a lui era invece negato. Non lo spinse il rimorso di come aveva trattato il padre: lo spinse invece la fame. Ma il figliol prodigo aveva un padre, mentre l’occidente  non ce lo ha.


Reuters. 2019-06-17. U.S. military firms likely to face China rare earth restrictions: Global Times

Military equipment firms in the United States will likely have their supply of Chinese rare earths restricted, the Global Times said on Monday, after China’s state economic planner confirmed industry experts have proposed export controls.

China is the world’s dominant producer of rare earths — a group of 17 prized minerals used in everything from consumer electronics to military equipment such as jet engines, missile guidance systems satellites and lasers.

Numerous reports from state-run Chinese media have raised the prospect that China may limit its supplies of the minerals to gain leverage in its trade dispute with the United States.

The Global Times, a newspaper that is published by the ruling Communist Party’s People’s Daily, said on its official Twitter account that U.S. military equipment companies “are likely to face restrictions,” citing unidentified Chinese industry insiders.

China should also work out a list of foreign end-users of Chinese rare earths, it added.

The Global Times comment followed a statement from a spokeswoman for China’s state economic planner, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), earlier on Monday that the NDRC would study and roll out relevant polices on rare earths as soon as possible.

The NDRC recently held three symposiums on rare earths to hear views from industry experts that included suggestions to enact export controls, according to a transcript of comments from NDRC spokeswoman Meng Wei.

China’s rare earth exports in May fell by 16% from April to 3,640 tonnes, according to customs data released last week.

Other proposals heard at the symposiums included accelerating the development of high-end downstream industries and establishing a “traceability mechanism” allowing every shipment of exported rare earth to be tracked, Meng said.

The government resolutely opposes any attempt to use products made with China’s exported rare earths to suppress the country’s development, Meng added.

China will also step up efforts to combat illegal rare earth mining and promote green development of the rare earth industry, she said.

Pubblicato in: Armamenti, Devoluzione socialismo, Geopolitica Militare, Problemia Energetici, Unione Europea

Germania. Gigante dai piedi di argilla. Rapporto su catastrofe energetica.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-01-10.

Gigante dai Piedi di Argilla

Un governo serio dovrebbe quanto meno cercare di ridurre la possibilità di eventi catastrofici così come di aver predisposto piani adeguati nel caso accadessero.

Tuttavia un fatto emerge in modo chiaro: le attuali società industriali presentano un numero talmente elevato di severe vulnerabilità strutturali da poter essere totalmente paralizzate nel breve volgere di qualche decina di minuti. Usando fraseggi differenti, in caso di guerra sarebbe sciocco distruggere l’avversario: sarebbe sufficiente colpire una decina di punti strategici per renderlo inoffensivo.

Tranne pochissime nazioni, la quasi totalità dispone per il traffico telefonico di non più di una decina di concentratori, colpiti i quali l’intero sistema andrebbe fuori uso.

Similmente, la rete di distribuzione della corrente elettrica presenta punti strategicamente vulnerabili ma talmente importanti da bloccare tutto.

Per esempio, per lasciare tutta l’Italia senza corrente elettrica basterebbe colpire tre soli punti della connessione. Ossia, con tre razzetti da quattro soldi  l’Italia interna resterebbe senza corrente elettrica per almeno una settimana. Il rapporto prestazioni / costi è lampante. Sarebbe del tutto antieconomico bombardare Milano, Torino, Roma e città di tal livello.

* * * * * * *

La struttura della produzione energetica tedesca sembrerebbe essere stata progettata da un androide.

Pur essendo una nazione ricca di carbone, ha speso, e spende tuttora, quantità rilevanti di risorse nei metodi alternativi di generazione di corrente. A ciò consegue che i grandi parchi eolici sono messi ove vi sia vento a sufficienza, ossia nel nord del paese. Di qui la necessità di allestire elettrodotti di lunga percorrenza, lungo i quali la corrente è in buona parte dissipata.

Energia. Il problema degli elettrodotti a lunga distanza. Le dissipazioni.

Il sud ovest industrializzato è ricorso ad un escamotage. L’Austria importa di notte il surplus delle centrali atomiche dei paesi viciniori e usa questa energia per riempire i suoi bacini idrici, vendendo alla Baviera la mattina seguente energia idroelettrica, considerata così energia pulita. In altri termini, la Germania del sud dipende energeticamente dall’import.

*

L’alta dispersione lungo gli elettrodotti ha portato come conseguenza negli altri paesi alla costruzione di centrali elettriche relativamente poco potenti ma distribuite in modo equidistanziato, così da ridurre al massimo le dispersioni.

Non solo.

Un denso network di centrali elettriche è inoltre molto robusto nel sostenere guasti ai quali conseguirebbero blackout. Meno la distribuzione delle centrali è densa maggiori sono i rischi di blackout di grandi dimensioni. Ad una centrale elettriche andata improvvisamente in avaria, il sistema deve reagire riequilibrando la produzione, cosa che risulterebbe essere impossibile nei sistemi altamente concentrati.

*

La storia dei blackout dovrebbe aver insegnato qualcosa.

Il nove novembre 1965 un contatto nella centrale del Niagara Falls mandò in tilt tutta la centrale. Nel giro di soli dodici minuti primi il blackout si estese dapprima nello stato di New York, quindi nel Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont, Maine, New Hampshire e due province canadesi: furono interessati oltre 200,000 kilometri quadrati densamente popolati.

Il 14 luglio 1977 un fulmine disattivò una centrale di trasformazione a New York, generando una reazione a catena di chiusure. La città restò al buio: la polizia arresto oltre quattromila persone che si stavano dedicando al saccheggio.

Il 28 settembre 2003 alle ore 3:01 un albero troppo vecchio per stare in piedi da solo crollò sulla linea ad altissima tensione Lavorgo-Mettlen, interrompendo l’importazione di energia dalla Svizzera all’Italia. Nel breve volgere di qualche minuto tutta l’Italia, Sicilia compresa, restò al buio. Treni ed ascensori fermi, ospedali senza corrente: il chaos generalizzato.

*

«According to an internal report by Germany’s civil protection agency, prolonged power shortages would disrupt the supply of vital goods in the country»

*

«The country lacks the necessary contigency plans for such an event»

*

«Prolonged, large-scale power shortages in Germany would cause a significant lack supplies, which could have “catastrophic” effects on the country»

*

«The alarm was raised by Germany’s Office for Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance (BBK) in an internal position paper»

* * * * * * * *

Cerchiamo di ragionare.

Un corto circuito banale a Niagara Falls ha indotto un blackout immane in quasi tutto il nordest americano. Un albero caduto su di un elettrodotto ha lasciato per due giorni l’Italia senza corrente.

Ma cosa mai succederebbe se i guasti fossero plurimi e simultanei?

Ma cosa mai potrebbe succedere se le interruzioni delle linee fossero artatamente indotte, mettiamo un sabotaggio ben organizzato?

E cosa mai potrebbe accadere in coso di un conflitto? Forse che i potenziali nemici non siano a conoscenza di questi colli di bottiglia? Sarebbero sufficienti sette cruise di piccola potenza per bloccare una intera nazione.


Deutsche Welle. 2018-11-27. Germany at risk of ‘catastrophic’ power shortages

According to an internal report by Germany’s civil protection agency, prolonged power shortages would disrupt the supply of vital goods in the country. The country lacks the necessary contigency plans for such an event.

*

Prolonged, large-scale power shortages in Germany would cause a significant lack supplies, which could have “catastrophic” effects on the country.

The alarm was raised by Germany’s Office for Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance (BBK) in an internal position paper, which was viewed by newspapers of the Funke Mediengruppe – a group that includes local newspapers across Germany.

In the research paper, the BBK reportedly wrote that a big power failure would result in a “significant distribution problem for important, sometimes vital goods” in almost all areas of society.

Electricity supply safe, but citizens and services unprepared

According to the report, this is also due to a lack of contingency plans for the distribution of fuel, food and medicines, particularly at the state and local level.

“Most of the gas stations wouldn’t provide any fuel. In a matter of hours, telephones and the internet could no longer be used. One would no longer be able to get a hold of any cash,” says the BBK’s paper.

Medical supplies could also only be provided for a short period of time, while critical infrastructure like the supply of energy, food and water, transport, telecommunications and finance would be affected.

But despite it ringing the alarm bell, the BBK believes such a catastrophic scenario in Germany isn’t imminent.

In fact, in its report the agency writes that the country’s electricity supply is “very safe,” and praised recent measures that improved IT security and increased the number of emergency power generators.

The BBK’s website advises that in case of a prolonged power shortage, citizens should wear warm clothes and light a fire with a supply of coal or wood to make up for the lack of heating.

It also advises to keep a stock of candles and flashlights, to prepare meals on a camping stove, and to have a sufficient reserve of cash in the house in case ATMs stop working due to the power failure.