Pubblicato in: Armamenti, Devoluzione socialismo, Geopolitica Militare

Iran. Nel sito di Fordow arricchisce l’uranio al 60%. Ovviamente per scopi pacifici.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-11-29.

2022-11-24__ Iran Uranio Arricchito 001

Oberati da un debito pubblico fuori controllo e da una inflazione galoppante gli Stati Uniti sono una larva economica che nello scacchiere internazionale ha perso irrimediabilmente l’egemonia economica e finanziaria.

Come se ciò non bastasse, gli Elettori hanno tranciato Joe Biden ed i liberal democratici conquistando il controllo del Congresso e relegando Joe Biden al ruolo di pappagallo impagliato posto nell’atrio della White House, inerte, chiuso nella sua demenza.

Nulla da stupirsi quindi se l’Iran fa

«a move that may annoy Western powers»

«una mossa che potrebbe infastidire le potenze occidentali».

Infastidire, nulla di più. Lo dicono loro.

I diktat di Joe Biden lasciano sovranamente indifferenti tutti gli stati del mondo e soprattutto l’Iran.

I media ex di regime li riportano come se fossero parole con un contenuto, cosa che non è. C’è solo da compatirli e sghignazzare alle loro spalle.

Pentagono. La vittoria russa porterebbe proliferazione nucleare. Mosca costruirà i droni iraniani.

Iran. Ccà nisciuno è fesso. Il vettore Ghaem-100.

Iran. I dimostranti si sono fidati dei liberal occidentali. È giusto che crepino.

Russia e Iran. Una alleanza che impensierisce sempre più la America.

Iran. La Unione Europea lo sanziona per la vendita dei droni alla Russia.

HESA Shahed 136. Drone kamikaze iraniano ad infimo costo.

Biden il demente parla e dice cose da demente. Non ascoltiamolo.

Grüne europei. Tornano disperati alla legna da ardere.

Enclave liberal socialista europea. Sta crepando sotto la inflazione. – Eurostat.

Cina, Russia ed Iran formano un blocco funzionale che insidia gli Stati Uniti.

Iran. L’occidente liberal spera nel petrolio con il Joint Complete Plan of Motion.

Iran. Ha chiesto di aderire al Gruppo Brics, Russia, Cina, India, Brasile, Sud Africa.

Brics. Si espandono ad Iran, Argentina, Egitto, Arabia Saudita e Turkia. Club energetico maggiore al mondo.

Iran. Ha chiesto di aderire al Gruppo Brics, Russia, Cina, India, Brasile, Sud Africa.

Dushanbe. Russia e Cina integrano l’Iran nello SCO. Altra débâcle irredimibile di Joe Biden.

* * * * * * *

                         L’Iran ha iniziato ad arricchire l’uranio al 60% di purezza nel suo sito nucleare sotterraneo di Fordow, hanno riferito martedì i media statali, una mossa che potrebbe infastidire le potenze occidentali che spingono Teheran a ridurre il suo lavoro nucleare riattivando un patto del 2015.

L’Iran sta già arricchendo l’uranio fino al 60 percento di purezza altrove, ben al di sotto del 90 percento circa necessario per ottenere materiale bellico, ma al di sopra del 20 percento che produceva prima dell’accordo del 2015 con le principali potenze per limitare l’arricchimento al 3.67 percento.

                         In una lettera all’Agenzia internazionale per l’energia atomica (AIEA), l’Iran ha informato l’agenzia di aver iniziato ad arricchire l’uranio al 60 per cento di purezza presso il sito di Fordow, utilizzando centrifughe avanzate IR-6. Teheran ha installato cascate di centrifughe avanzate più efficienti, come le IR-2m, IR-4 e IR-6. I colloqui indiretti tra Teheran e l’amministrazione del Presidente degli Stati Uniti Joe Biden per rilanciare l’accordo del 2015 sono in fase di stallo da settembre, con entrambe le parti che chiedono maggiore flessibilità.

* * * * * * *

«Iran has begun enriching uranium to 60 percent purity at its underground Fordow nuclear site, state media reported on Tuesday, a move that may annoy Western powers pushing Tehran to roll back its nuclear work by reviving a 2015 pact.

Iran is already enriching uranium to up to 60 percent purity elsewhere, well below the roughly 90 percent needed for weapons-grade material but above the 20 percent it produced before the 2015 agreement with major powers to cap enrichment at 3.67 percent.»

«In a letter to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran has informed the agency that it has started enriching uranium to 60 percent purity at Fordow site using IR-6 advanced centrifuges. Tehran installed cascades of more efficient advanced centrifuges, such as the IR-2m, IR-4 and IR-6. Indirect talks between Tehran and US President Joe Biden’s administration to revive the 2015 accord have been at a stalemate since September, with both sides demanding more flexibility.»

* * * * * * *


Iran to enrich Uranium to 60 percent purity at Fordow nuclear site.

Iran will also be building a new set of centrifuges at the site.

Dubai: Iran has begun enriching uranium to 60 percent purity at its underground Fordow nuclear site, state media reported on Tuesday, a move that may annoy Western powers pushing Tehran to roll back its nuclear work by reviving a 2015 pact.

Iran is already enriching uranium to up to 60 percent purity elsewhere, well below the roughly 90 percent needed for weapons-grade material but above the 20 percent it produced before the 2015 agreement with major powers to cap enrichment at 3.67 percent.

“In a letter to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran has informed the agency that it has started enriching uranium to 60 percent purity at Fordow site using IR-6 advanced centrifuges,” the semi-official ISNA news agency reported.

The IAEA’s 35-nation Board of Governors on Thursday passed a resolution ordering Iran to cooperate urgently with the agency’s investigation into uranium traces found at three undeclared sites, diplomats at the closed-door vote said.

The semi-official Fars news agency said Tehran had also started the process of “replacing the first-generation centrifuges (IR-1) with advanced IR-6 ones” at Fordow, a site buried inside a mountain.

The 2015 nuclear pact between Iran and six world powers lets Iran use only first-generation IR-1 centrifuges but, as the deal unraveled after then-President Donald Trump ditched it in 2018, Tehran installed cascades of more efficient advanced centrifuges, such as the IR-2m, IR-4 and IR-6.

In June, Reuters reported that Tehran was escalating its uranium enrichment further by preparing to use IR-6 centrifuges, which can easily switch between enrichment levels, at the Fordow site.

Iran’s SNN television network said Tehran had begun installing new cascades, or clusters, of advanced centrifuges at its Natanz and Fordow nuclear sites, adding that doing so was a “strong response” to the IAEA’s latest resolution.

“Iran has started the process of injecting gas into two cascades of IR-2m and IR-4 advanced centrifuges at the underground Natanz site,” SNN reported.

The IAEA resolution is the second this year targeting Iran over the investigation, which has become an obstacle to talks on reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal because Iran has demanded that the probe be ended.

Iran’s foreign ministry on Monday dismissed the resolution as “politically motivated.” Indirect talks between Tehran and US President Joe Biden’s administration to revive the 2015 accord have been at a stalemate since September, with both sides demanding more flexibility.

Iran’s crackdown on anti-government protests sparked by Mahsa Amini’s death in custody and the sale of drones to Russia have turned the United States’ focus away from reviving a nuclear deal, US special envoy for Iran Robert Malley said on Monday.

Iran denies selling drones to Russia for use in the Ukraine war.

Pubblicato in: Armamenti, Geopolitica Militare, Russia

Conflitto ukraino. Situazione al 2022-10-23. – Reuters.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-10-24.

2022-09-04__ Svezia 001

                         Kyiv, 23 ottobre (Reuters) – I missili russi hanno colpito sabato l’energia ucraina e altre strutture, causando blackout in varie regioni. Con la guerra che sta per iniziare il suo nono mese e l’inverno che si avvicina, si profila la possibilità di un congelamento della miseria mentre la Russia continua ad attaccare la rete elettrica ucraina.

                         Migliaia di civili hanno lasciato Kherson dopo gli avvertimenti di un’offensiva ucraina per riconquistare la città. L’esercito ucraino ha dichiarato di aver guadagnato terreno mentre le sue forze si muovevano verso sud nella regione, conquistando almeno due villaggi che le truppe russe avrebbero abbandonato.

                         Dal 10 ottobre, la Russia ha lanciato attacchi devastanti alle infrastrutture elettriche ucraine, colpendo almeno la metà della produzione di energia termica e fino al 40% dell’intero sistema. I governatori hanno consigliato ai residenti di fare scorta d’acqua. I governatori hanno consigliato ai residenti di fare scorta d’acqua. Più di un milione di persone sono rimaste senza corrente. Alcune zone di Kiev hanno subito interruzioni di corrente fino a sera, e un funzionario comunale ha avvertito che gli attacchi potrebbero lasciare la capitale dell’Ucraina senza elettricità e riscaldamento per diversi giorni o settimane.

                         Le forze ucraine avevano abbattuto 20 missili e più di 10 droni Shahed di fabbricazione iraniana sabato. In precedenza, il comando delle forze aeree aveva dichiarato che 33 missili erano stati lanciati contro l’Ucraina, con 18 abbattuti.

* * * * * * *

«Kyiv, Oct 23 (Reuters) – Russian missiles pounded Ukrainian energy and other facilities on Saturday, causing blackouts in various regions. With the war about to start its ninth month and winter approaching, the potential for freezing misery loomed as Russia continued to attack Ukraine’s power grid.»

«Thousands of civilians have left Kherson after warnings of a Ukrainian offensive to recapture the city. Ukraine’s military said it was making gains as its forces moved south through the region, taking over at least two villages it said Russian troops had abandoned»

«Since Oct. 10, Russia has launched devastating salvos at Ukraine’s power infrastructure, hitting at least half its thermal power generation and up to 40% of the entire system. Governors advised residents to stock up on water. Governors advised residents to stock up on water. More than a million people were without power. Parts of Kyiv suffered power cuts into the evening, and a city official warned strikes could leave Ukraine’s capital without power and heat for “several days or weeks”.»

«Ukrainian forces had downed 20 missiles and more than 10 Iranian-made Shahed drones on Saturday. The air force command earlier had said 33 missiles had been fired at Ukraine, with 18 shot down»

* * * * * * *


Russian strikes cause blackouts in much of Ukraine, more flee Kherson

Kyiv, Oct 23 (Reuters) – Russian missiles pounded Ukrainian energy and other facilities on Saturday, causing blackouts in various regions, Kyiv said, while Russian occupation authorities in the southern city of Kherson urged civilians to evacuate.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the Russian attacks had struck on a “very wide” scale. He pledged his military would improve on an already good record of downing missiles with help from its partners.

With the war about to start its ninth month and winter approaching, the potential for freezing misery loomed as Russia continued to attack Ukraine’s power grid.

In Kherson, a target for Ukraine’s aggressive counterattack to the invasion Russian President Vladimir Putin launched on Feb. 24, the occupation authorities instructed civilians to get out.

“Due to the tense situation at the front, the increased danger of massive shelling of the city and the threat of terrorist attacks, all civilians must immediately leave the city and cross to the (east) bank of the Dnipro!” occupation authorities posted on Telegram.

Thousands of civilians have left Kherson after warnings of a Ukrainian offensive to recapture the city.

At Oleshky on the opposite bank of the Dnipro, Reuters saw people arriving by river boat from Kherson, loaded with boxes, bags and pets. One woman carried a toddler under one arm and a dog under the other.

“I really didn’t want to (leave), I’m still in work,” one resident said. “We wanted to stay here in the region, but now we don’t know.”

Ukraine’s military said it was making gains as its forces moved south through the region, taking over at least two villages it said Russian troops had abandoned. Kherson links Ukraine to the Crimean Peninsula, which was annexed by Russia in 2014.

Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said on Telegram: “Kherson region! Just a little bit more. Hang in there. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are at work.”

Reuters could not independently verify the accounts.

                         ‘MASS STRIKE’

Since Oct. 10, Russia has launched devastating salvos at Ukraine’s power infrastructure, hitting at least half its thermal power generation and up to 40% of the entire system.

Officials in a swath of regions on Saturday reported strikes on energy facilities and power outages as engineers scrambled to restore the network. Governors advised residents to stock up on water.

More than a million people were without power, said presidential adviser Kyrylo Tymoshenko. Parts of Kyiv suffered power cuts into the evening, and a city official warned strikes could leave Ukraine’s capital without power and heat for “several days or weeks”.

Presidential aide Mykhailo Podolyak said Moscow wanted to create a new wave of refugees into Europe with the strikes, while Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Twitter the attacks constituted genocide.

Moscow has acknowledged targeting energy infrastructure but denies targeting civilians.

Zelenskiy, in his nightly video address, said the “latest mass strike” affected regions in western, central and southern Ukraine.

“Of course we don’t have the technical ability to knock down 100% of the Russian missiles and strike drones. I am sure that, gradually, we will achieve that, with help from our partners. Already now, we are downing a majority of cruise missiles, a majority of drones.”

Ukrainian forces had downed 20 missiles and more than 10 Iranian-made Shahed drones on Saturday, he said. The air force command earlier had said 33 missiles had been fired at Ukraine, with 18 shot down.

No new developments were reported regarding the Nova Kakhovka dam. Zelenskiy on Friday urged the West to warn Moscow not to blow up the Russian-controlled dam on the Dnipro.

“Of course we don’t have the technical ability to knock down 100% of the Russian missiles and strike drones. I am sure that, gradually, we will achieve that, with help from our partners. Already now, we are downing a majority of cruise missiles, a majority of drones.”

Ukrainian forces had downed 20 missiles and more than 10 Iranian-made Shahed drones on Saturday, he said. The air force command earlier had said 33 missiles had been fired at Ukraine, with 18 shot down.

No new developments were reported regarding the Nova Kakhovka dam. Zelenskiy on Friday urged the West to warn Moscow not to blow up the Russian-controlled dam on the Dnipro.

Pubblicato in: Armamenti, Geopolitica Militare

Emirati Arabi. Ordinati 60 Rafale alla Francia.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-12-05.

Emirati Arabi Uniti 003

«The United Arab Emirates ordered 80 Rafale fighter jets on Friday, the largest order ever for the warplane, a multi-billion dollar arms contract that deepens economic and political ties with France»

«French President Emmanuel Macron began a two-day trip to the Gulf on Friday, and will also visit Qatar and Saudi Arabia»

«His visit comes at a time when Gulf Arab states have voiced uncertainty about the United States’ focus on the region even as they seek more weapons from their key security ally»

«Paris has a permanent military base in the Emirati capital»

«In addition to the presence of three French military bases on UAE territory, this mutual trust translates into the acquisition of 80 Rafale planes, 12 Caracal helicopters, and associated elements»

«The deal, which could be worth at least $15 billion, is the biggest bulk purchase of the Dassault-made Rafale, other than by the French army, and comes after deals in Greece, Egypt and Croatia this year»

«Defence sources said the Rafale would replace the Mirage 2000 fleet and is unlikely to displace the American F-35 as the UAE continues to hedge its security with two major suppliers, France and the United States»

* * * * * * *

Questa è una commessa di elevato valore.

Gli United Arab Emirates percepiscono chiaramente che in caso di necessità i loro tradizionali alleati non muoverebbero un dito per difenderli. Nessuno più si fida dell’America e di Joe Biden.

* * * * * * *


Cementing ties, UAE buys 80 French-made Rafale warplanes

DubaI (Reuters) -The United Arab Emirates ordered 80 Rafale fighter jets on Friday, the largest order ever for the warplane, a multi-billion dollar arms contract that deepens economic and political ties with France.

French President Emmanuel Macron began a two-day trip to the Gulf on Friday, and will also visit Qatar and Saudi Arabia. His visit comes at a time when Gulf Arab states have voiced uncertainty about the United States’ focus on the region even as they seek more weapons from their key security ally.

The French leader has forged a good relationship with Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan (MBZ) with investments flowing between both countries. Paris has a permanent military base in the Emirati capital.

“In addition to the presence of three French military bases on UAE territory, this mutual trust translates into the acquisition of 80 Rafale planes, 12 Caracal helicopters, and associated elements,” the French presidency said in a statement after a signing ceremony between MBZ and Macron on the sidelines of the Dubai Expo 2020.

Dassault shares rose 6% on the announcement.

The deal, which could be worth at least $15 billion, is the biggest bulk purchase of the Dassault-made Rafale, other than by the French army, and comes after deals in Greece, Egypt and Croatia this year.

The on-off negotiations for the Rafale fighter jets have been going on for more than a decade with Abu Dhabi publicly rebuffing France’s offer to supply 60 Rafale jets in 2011 as “uncompetitive and unworkable.” Abu Dhabi already has Mirage warplanes.

Defence sources said the Rafale would replace the Mirage 2000 fleet and is unlikely to displace the American F-35 as the UAE continues to hedge its security with two major suppliers, France and the United States.

Pubblicato in: Armamenti, Geopolitica Asiatica, Geopolitica Militare

Giappone. Aumenta di 6.75 miliardi Usd il budget della difesa.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-12-01.

2021-11-30__Japan 001

«Producer prices in Japan rose by 8.0% yoy in October 2021, the most since January 1981, …. amid surging commodity prices. Cost surged further for petroleum & coal products (44.5% vs 32.4% in September), iron & steel (21.8% vs 18.1%), chemicals (14.1% vs 12.7%) and non-ferrous metals (31.4% vs 27.0%).» [Fonte]

* * * * * * *

«Japan plans to add $6.75 billion to its already record annual military spending in a rush to bolster air and maritime defenses as it becomes more concerned about threats posed by China and North Korea»

«Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s government on Friday approved the outlay as part of a supplementary budget»

«While such additions to defense spending are common, the 774 billion yen that lawmakers will be asked to approve is the largest amount ever»

«As the security environment around Japan worsens at unprecedented speed, our urgent task is to accelerate the implementation of various projects»

«The cash injection will let Japan, three months earlier than planned, upgrade surface-to-air missile launchers on islands at the edge of the East China Sea and Patriot PAC-3 missile batteries elsewhere that are the last line of defense against any incoming North Korean warheads»

«China’s increasing pressure on Taiwan is causing jitters in Japan because Beijing’s control of the island would bring Chinese forces within around 100 kilometers (62 miles) of its territory and would threaten key maritime trade routes that supply Japan with oil and other goods»

«The extra spending will also let Japan more quickly acquire anti-submarine missiles, maritime patrol planes and military cargo jets»

* * * * * * *

Il Giappone è carico di problemi, tra i quali spicca la stagflazione.

Giappone. Demografia. Tassodi fertilità sceso a 1.34. È crisi devastante.

Giappone. Un vecchio ogni 1.8 giovani. Cina e Russia si leccano i baffi.

Giappone. 2021Q1. Pil -3.9% QoQ, Consumi Privati -6.0%.

Giappone. 2021Q1. Investimenti in impianti e macchiari -7.8 sul 2020Q1.

Giappone – PIL (Prodotto Interno Lordo) (Annuale) -3.0%. [2021-11-14]

* * * * * * *

Il Giappone non nutre fiducia che gli Stati Uniti li difendano in caso di aggressione, e Cina e Korea del Nord sono vicini scomodi, armati fino ai denti.

La conseguenza è semplice, ossia riarmarsi. Ma senza disporre di armi atomiche il suo potere deterrente sarà pur sempre misero.

Infine, a crisi demografica nel medio – lungo termine lavora tutto a favore della Cina, che alla fine occuperà delle isole spopolate.

* * * * * * *


Japan adds $6.75 billion to military budget in rush to bolster air and sea defenses

Tokyo (Reuters) Japan plans to add $6.75 billion to its already record annual military spending in a rush to bolster air and maritime defenses as it becomes more concerned about threats posed by China and North Korea.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s government on Friday approved the outlay as part of a supplementary budget. While such additions to defense spending are common, the 774 billion yen that lawmakers will be asked to approve is the largest amount ever, according to Japan’s Ministry of Defense.

“As the security environment around Japan worsens at unprecedented speed, our urgent task is to accelerate the implementation of various projects,” the Defense Ministry said in its spending proposal.

Japan’s Air Self-Defense Force’s F-15 fighter jets, one of the country’s key defenses, fly during a review after the graduation ceremony of the National Defense Academy on March 22, 2020.

The cash injection will let Japan, three months earlier than planned, upgrade surface-to-air missile launchers on islands at the edge of the East China Sea and Patriot PAC-3 missile batteries elsewhere that are the last line of defense against any incoming North Korean warheads.

China’s increasing pressure on Taiwan is causing jitters in Japan because Beijing’s control of the island would bring Chinese forces within around 100 kilometers (62 miles) of its territory and would threaten key maritime trade routes that supply Japan with oil and other goods. It would also provide China with bases for unfettered access to the western Pacific.

The extra spending will also let Japan more quickly acquire anti-submarine missiles, maritime patrol planes and military cargo jets, the Defense Ministry said.

The additional military outlay comes after Kishida’s ruling party in October included a goal of almost doubling defense spending to 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) in election pledges.

For decades the pacifist nation has stuck to a policy of keeping defense spending within 1% of GDP, easing concern both at home and overseas about any revival of the militarism that led Japan into World War II.

The additional spending plan approved by Kishida’s government on Friday also includes pre-payments to defense contractors for equipment to help them deal with coronavirus pandemic disruptions that have hurt their finances.

The proposed supplemental spending combined with defense outlays approved for the year to March 31 comes to about 1.3% of Japan’s GDP.

Pubblicato in: Armamenti, Geopolitica Militare, Russia

Russia. Controllo militare dell’Artico. Le basi sono più importanti delle parole.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-06-13.

Franz Josef Land 001

Il controllo militare, economico e politico dell’Oceano Artico è diventato terreno di confronto tra le grandi potenze.

2021-05-23__ Franz Josef Land 002

Tra le pochissime isole, la Franz Josef Land è l’arcipelago più a nord di tutto il continente: il suo possesso è quindi vitale, sia come punto avanzato di avvistamento radar, sia come base missilistica  di interdizione a missili, aeroplani e navi.

«Franz Josef Land archipelago is the closest land to the North Pole in the eastern hemisphere (about 870 km to the North Pole).

It has been discovered in 1873 by the Austrian – Hungarian “Tegetthoff” expedition, under the leadership of Carl Weyprecht, who named the islands after Emperor Franz Joseph I.

The extremely northern position of the islands attracted expeditions of the pioneer age (late 19th – early 20th century), which usually saw Franz Josef Land as a useful advanced base for attempts to reach the North Pole.

The archipelago was more fully explored by expeditions such as one led by Nansen (who spent the winter of 1895–96 in Franz Josef Land).

In 1926 the islands were taken over by the Soviet Union, for research and military purposes; many of the Russian Polar stations are now abandoned, and the whole archipelago is given back to the wildlife. Polar Bears, walruses, arctic foxes, belugas and whales, and lots of Arctic birds.

Nowadays it is one of rare ‘wild’ places left on Earth – it is unpopulated except for one permanent Russian base.

The archipelago consists of 191 islands, mostly covered with a permanent ice cap. Islands of volcanic origin, including Alexandra Land, Prince George Land, Bell Island, Hooker Island, Prince Rudolf Island, Hall island…» [Ultima0thule]

* * * * * * *

2021-05-23__ Franz Josef Land Saint Nicholas Church 001


«Now Franz Josef Land is home to a Russian military base and the source of added tension in relations with the West»

«The US has once again accused Moscow of “militarising” the Arctic and the head of Russia’s Northern Fleet has told the BBC that Nato and US military activity in the region is “definitely” provocative and on a scale not seen since World War Two»

«The airfield has been upgraded to allow all kinds of planes to land all year round, though emerging on to the tarmac was like stepping on an ice rink»

«Less than 960km (600 miles) below the North Pole, conditions are extreme, with deep snowdrifts and blizzards even in mid-May»

«Even the structure of the base is meant to make a statement: it’s painted in the colours of the Russian flag, bright against the blank canvas all around»

«Known as Arctic Trefoil for its three-leaved shape, the base is the second of its kind in the Arctic – this one is meant for 150 soldiers.»

«But the main show is outside, where Bastion missile launchers raise and lower their firing mechanisms as a soldier in white camouflage stands guard, gun across his chest»

«The missile systems are “to destroy enemy ships”»

«The Northern Fleet put on a far greater show of strength earlier this year when three nuclear submarines smashed through the ice simultaneously, a manoeuvre never seen before»

«Such posturing is making the United States and Nato wary as Russia’s military presence in the region expands to a level not seen since the Cold War»

«we were bussed to a battlecruiser moored in the closed military town of Severomorsk. At 252 metres long, the nuclear-powered Peter the Great is the giant grey flagship of the Northern Fleet.»

«We see such activity as provocative so close to the Russian border where we have very important assets. By that, I mean nuclear forces»

«As the polar ice melts, removing a protective natural curtain, Russia’s long northern frontier will become vulnerable»

«Trade would include exports of the large oil and gas reserves beneath the sea here»

Nota.

Pyotr Velikiy è il nome russo dell’incrociatore atomico Pietro il Grande.

* * * * * * *

Aver costruito, tenuto in manutenzione ed in ottima efficienza bellica una sofisticata base militare in una zona dal clima così avverso significa aver messo a punto una congerie inenarrabile di mezzi: dagli abiti da indossare, a sistemi di arma operativi anche a -50°C, missili e rampe di lancio mobili atte a lavorare a quelle temperature. Per non menzionare anche i mezzi più umili ma indispensabili, quali i lubrificanti che non congelino.

Le beghe legali lascerebbero alquanto sorridenti: le armi comandano.

*


Russia flexes muscles in challenge for Arctic control.

Now Franz Josef Land is home to a Russian military base and the source of added tension in relations with the West.

The US has once again accused Moscow of “militarising” the Arctic and the head of Russia’s Northern Fleet has told the BBC that Nato and US military activity in the region is “definitely” provocative and on a scale not seen since World War Two.

                         Making the Arctic a priority for Russia

We were among the first foreign journalists taken to visit the facility on Alexandra Island, over two hours’ flight from Murmansk up over the Arctic.

The airfield has been upgraded to allow all kinds of planes to land all year round, though emerging on to the tarmac was like stepping on an ice rink.

Less than 960km (600 miles) below the North Pole, conditions are extreme, with deep snowdrifts and blizzards even in mid-May. For a while, rattling along in a military truck, I could make out nothing but white through the window.

In deepest winter the temperature drops to minus 50 degrees C and the soldiers occasionally have to head out in their vehicles to disperse the polar bears who amble right up to the base.

                         ‘Like a space station’

Even the structure of the base is meant to make a statement: it’s painted in the colours of the Russian flag, bright against the blank canvas all around.

Known as Arctic Trefoil for its three-leaved shape, the base is the second of its kind in the Arctic – this one is meant for 150 soldiers.

Ahead of a tour, the commander in charge said it was so high-tech and ecologically efficient it was “like a space station, just in the Arctic emptiness instead of in orbit”.

But the main show is outside, where Bastion missile launchers raise and lower their firing mechanisms as a soldier in white camouflage stands guard, gun across his chest.

The missile systems are “to destroy enemy ships,” another soldier said. They are “effective”, he informed us.

The Northern Fleet put on a far greater show of strength earlier this year when three nuclear submarines smashed through the ice simultaneously, a manoeuvre never seen before. On the same Arctic exercises, two fighter jets flew over the North Pole, refuelling in mid-air.

Such posturing is making the United States and Nato wary as Russia’s military presence in the region expands to a level not seen since the Cold War.

Nato’s spokeswoman confirmed that the alliance had stepped up its patrols and exercises, in response, she said, to a “more challenging security environment”.

                         Blaming Nato for build-up

But Russia doesn’t see things that way.

Before we were flown to the archipelago, we were bussed to a battlecruiser moored in the closed military town of Severomorsk. At 252 metres long, the nuclear-powered Peter the Great is the giant grey flagship of the Northern Fleet.

On board, the Fleet’s commander, Adm Alexander Moiseyev, addressed us in front of a portrait of Peter I, the Tsar who founded Russia’s navy and turned the country towards the West.

But he accused Nato forces and the US of military actions in the Arctic that increased the risk of conflict.

“There haven’t been so many of their forces here for years. Decades. Not since World War Two,” Adm Moiseyev countered, when I put it to him that Nato blamed Russia for the surge in tension. “We see such activity as provocative so close to the Russian border where we have very important assets. By that, I mean nuclear forces.”

As for the Russian build-up, the troops are returning to a region Russia abandoned in the 1990s when the Soviet Union fell apart.

“We’re just recreating the capacity to protect our borders, not to threaten anyone,” argues Lev Voronkov, an Arctic expert from MGIMO university. “After the USSR collapsed, even border posts in that region were left unmanned.”

That won’t be an option for much longer. As the polar ice melts, removing a protective natural curtain, Russia’s long northern frontier will become vulnerable.

                         Land of opportunity

As the Bastion missile launchers danced for the cameras on Alexandra Island, I spotted a Russian ice-breaker cutting through the frozen landscape in the distance. A smaller cargo ship followed in its wake and an iceberg loomed behind both of them.

The vessels were crawling along the northern shipping route that skirts the archipelago and that Russia hopes to develop and control as global warming makes it easier to navigate. Trade would include exports of the large oil and gas reserves beneath the sea here.

Admiral Moiseyev calls his troops the “main instrument” for protecting those economic interests, as well as Russia’s borders.

As competition begins to heat up, our visit to Franz Josef Land was a chance for Russia to flex some muscle and send a message: that its ambitions for the Arctic are great and growing and they are interests it’s ready to defend.

Pubblicato in: Armamenti, Cina, Geopolitica Militare

Cina. I lanciatori dei missili ipersonici DF-17 sono diventati stealth.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-01-20.

DF-17 013

«The Dongfeng-17, is a Chinese solid-fuelled road-mobile medium-range ballistic missile that mounts the DF-ZF Hypersonic Glide Vehicle. The DF-17’s hypersonic armament gives China significant leverage over current conventional ABM’s due to the glide vehicle’s unpredictable ballistic trajectory.

The DF-17 along with the DF-ZF, was officially unveiled at the National Day military parade on 1 October 2019, making this China’s first operational hypersonic weapon systems and one of the world’s first to be put in full initial  ….

The biggest change however, is the obvious usage of a hypersonic glide vehicle rather than a conventional re-entry warhead(s) found in normal ballistic missiles and MIRVs. ….

The DF-ZF HGV operates in a different manner from normal ballistic missiles or even intercontinental ballistic missiles in the first place. Rather than firing and landing in a normal arc, the DF-17’s HGV suppresses its trajectory and accelerates to reach Mach 5.

Due to its extreme speed and suppressed/lower altitude trajectory, intercepting the glide vehicle with ABM shielding becomes far harder and more complex than that of a conventional re-entry vehicle. This is further complicated, as the gliding makes the DF-ZF far more maneuverable; extending both its range and avoiding potential ABM shielding.» [Fonte]

*

«China’s transporter erector launcher (TEL), which carries and fires DF-17 hypersonic missiles, has received a stealth camouflaged cover that makes it more challenging for the US and allies to identify via reconnaissance satellites»

Già il fatto di essere lanciabile da parte di un veicolo terrestre rende difficilmente identificabile il DF-17 da parte della sorveglianza satellitare avversa. Rendendo stealth il veicolo mobile terrestre si rende ancor più difficile la sua identificazione satellitare.

Tenendo con che il missile viaggia a bassa quota alla velocità massima di Mach 5 (~6,000 km/h), il DF-17 colpisce un bersaglio a 2,000 km in poco meno di venti minuti primi. Non solo, il missile è in grado di mutare rotta ed eseguire manovre di disimpegno, fatto questo che lo rende quasi non intercettabile.

Adesso che anche il lanciatore è diventato stealth, tutto questo sistema d’arma sta assumendo una notevole potenzialità dissuasiva.

Si noti come il DF-17 abbia un raggio di azione che include Taiwan.

*


China Makes It Harder For US Spy Satellites To Spot Hypersonic Missiles

China’s transporter erector launcher (TEL), which carries and fires DF-17 hypersonic missiles, has received a stealth camouflaged cover that makes it more challenging for the US and allies to identify via reconnaissance satellites, according to state-run newspaper Global Times

TEL is a ground-based vehicle with an integrated prime mover (tractor unit) that can carry and elevate a DF-17 into a firing position. 

The upgraded TEL was spotted in a video celebrating the founding of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Rocket Force last week and was published initially on the Chinese website 81.cn. 

According to the video, the camouflaged missile transporter has a hypersonic missile encased inside a shell as it traverses desert terrain. 

Shanghai-based news website eastday.com said the TEL is an upgraded version specifically for hauling DF-17s. 

The PLA debuted the DF-17 during a military parade in late 2019. At the time, the TEL hauling the DF-17 had no cover and the entire missile was exposed. 

Camouflaged missile transporters come as DF-17s are being fielded at military installations in Southeast China. 

The missiles have already been deployed in the Fujian and Zhejiang provinces, which are in striking range of Taiwan. 

Beijing’s increased militarization of its southeast coast is very suggestive of preparations for an invasion. 

Pubblicato in: Armamenti, Geopolitica Europea, Geopolitica Militare, Russia

Turkia. Comprerebbe altri S-400 dalla Russia. Non male per un paese Nato.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-08-28.

Istanbul 004

Mr Putin sembrerebbe essere un prestigiatore: ha generato quasi dal nulla un sistema come gli S-400 e quindi li ha tramutati in un affilato strumento diplomatico e politico.

«Russia is likely to sign a contract for delivery of an additional batch of its S-400 missile systems to Turkey next year»

Ovvio che l’occidente lo odi: è un russo che sta facendo gli interessi della Russia.

*


Turkia. In arrivo la seconda consegna di S-400. 2019-08-28.

«The S-400 is a massive upgrade to the S-300, its predecessor which was recently sent to Syria.

Because of its capabilities, several countries including China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, India and Qatar have said they are willing to buy the S-400.

Almost every government that announced it was planning to buy the system was threatened with some kind of diplomatic retaliation from the US, NATO or adversaries.

The reason for this blowback, according to several experts Al Jazeera interviewed, is not only because the S-400 is technologically advanced, it also poses a potential risk for long-standing alliances. ….

The S-400 is among the most advanced air defence systems available, on par with the best the West has to offer, …. Its radars and other sensors, as well as its missiles, cover an extensive area – the radar has a range of at least 600km for surveillance, and its missiles have ranges of up to 400km, ….

It’s precise and it manages to track a very large number of potential targets, including stealth targets. ….»

*


Turkia. Arrivati i primi Sistemi S-400. 2019-07-12.

«Volenti o nolenti però, si apre adesso un severo problema del settore meridionale della Nato, e proprio con la Turkia che ha il controllo dei Dardanelli.

L’Unione Europea è adesso compresa tra le basi russe di Kalinigrad e quelle turke di Murted. Forse, Frau Merkel potrebbe anche mobilitare il proprio esercito di frombolieri armati con le nuove catapulte che tirano massi anche a cinquecento metri. Ferma posizione delle front-hole tedesche: non gliela daremo più.»

*


S-400. Arma militare e diplomatica in Turkia ed in India.

«I russi hanno un segreto che nessuno è mai riuscito a violare. Come siano riusciti a concepire, progettare, costruire e rendere operativi un così grande numero di sistemi missilistici allo stato dell’arte ed il tutto in così poco tempo ed infine a costi irrisori»


9M729, Iskander, Kalibr, S-400, S500. Putin è un gran costruttore di missili.

Cina. Dispiegati nel sud-est asiatico gli S-400 russi.

Medio Oriente. La Russia fornirà sistemi S-400 all’Arabia Saudita.

Turkia. Firmato contratto S-400. Si dice siano già operativi.

*


Nelle abili mani di Mr Putin il sistema di missili anti oggetti volanti S-400 sta transitando da arma temibile a strumento diplomatico. Come arma, l’S-400 sarebbe in grado di intercettare ed abbattere aerei, droni, e missile anche ipersonici con una portata riferita di circa 400 km. Come strumento diplomatico è un mezzo molto utile per gratificare i paesi amici e per stuzzicare l’amicizia degli incerti. Poi, dotarsi di S-400 conferisce allo stato possessore una supremazia locoregionale nei confronti dei paesi viciniori.

Questi sistemi di arma erano una volta appannaggio dei soli Stati Uniti, che li avevano concessi a terzi con grande morigeratezza. Adesso la concorrenza russa inizia a farsi sentire pesantemente.

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Russia and Turkey likely to sign S-400 missile deal next year: Ifax.

Russia is likely to sign a contract for delivery of an additional batch of its S-400 missile systems to Turkey next year, the Interfax news agency cited Sergei Chemezov, head of state conglomerate Rostec, as saying on Sunday.

Turkey bought a batch of the missile systems from Russia last year, leading to its suspension by Washington from the U.S. F-35 stealth fighter jet programme. The United States has said that Turkey risks U.S. sanctions if it deploys the Russian-made S-400s.

Pubblicato in: Armamenti, Geopolitica Militare, Stati Uniti

Polonia. Ospiterà altri 1,000 soldati Usa ed il Quartier generale dello US Army V Corps.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-08-21.

Polonia 001

«The US has signed a deal with Poland to begin the redeployment of American troops from Germany to the Eastern European country»

«The agreement also makes Poland the new headquarters of the US Army V Corps.»

«Under the pact, another 1,000 US troops will be sent to Poland in addition to the 4,500 soldiers already stationed there»

«The deal also grants the US access to Polish military installations and allows for the modernization of existing facilities and capabilities in Poland»

«Several military commands will also be moved out of Germany»

«In July, the US Department of Defense announced plans to withdraw around 12,000 US military personnel from Germany, reducing its troop presence there from 36,000 to 24,000. Nearly 5,600 service members will be redeployed to NATO countries, including Poland, with 6,400 to return to the US.»

«Pompeo and Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak signed the deal, known as the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), at the Presidential Palace in Warsaw»

* * * * * * *

La Germania è diventata un alleato scarsamente affidabile.

Ha smantellato quasi completamente le sue forze armate, ha ad oggi poco meno che cinquanta carri armati efficienti, e versa alla Nato quote ridicolmente irrisorie. In cambio pretenderebbe che a difenderla da una invasione fossero gli alleati, nell’ottica che tale invasione dovrebbe inevitabilmente portare allo scontro atomico.

Il risultato è semplice: nessuno ha intenzione di morire per Berlino.

La Polonia, che ben ha conosciuto i russi nella fattispecie dei comunisti, ha accolto a braccia aperte le truppe americane e, soprattutto, gli elevati comandi operativi.

Nei fatti, la Nato fa avanzare la propria frontiera operativa subito a ridosso dei paesi nell’orbita politica e militare russa.

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Pompeo signs deal to move US troops from Germany to Poland.

The US has signed a deal with Poland to begin the redeployment of American troops from Germany to the Eastern European country. The agreement also makes Poland the new headquarters of the US Army V Corps.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has sealed an agreement with Poland to boost the number of American troops in the eastern EU member state.

Under the pact, another 1,000 US troops will be sent to Poland in addition to the 4,500 soldiers already stationed there. The deal also grants the US access to Polish military installations and allows for the modernization of existing facilities and capabilities in Poland.

“This is going to be an extended guarantee: a guarantee that in case of a threat our soldiers are going to stand arm-in-arm,” Polish President Andrzej Duda said on Saturday during the signing ceremony. 

“It will also serve to increase the security of other countries in our part of Europe.”

Several military commands will also be moved out of Germany, among them the US Army V Corps overseas headquarters. It will be based in Poland from next year.

US to withdraw 12,000 military personnel from Germany

In July, the US Department of Defense announced plans to withdraw around 12,000 US military personnel from Germany, reducing its troop presence there from 36,000 to 24,000. Nearly 5,600 service members will be redeployed to NATO countries, including Poland, with 6,400 to return to the US.

The decision followed repeated complaints from President Donald Trump that Berlin wasn’t spending enough on defense or contributing its share to NATO coffers.

Pompeo and Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak signed the deal, known as the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), at the Presidential Palace in Warsaw. The US diplomat is wrapping up a tour of Central Europe, which included visits to the Czech Republic, Austria and Slovenia.

Pubblicato in: Armamenti, Geopolitica Militare, Russia

Putin. Stanno diventando operativi i missile ipersonici per la marina.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-08-08.

2020-08-04__ Putin Iskander 001

I missili ipersonici sono armi tattiche ovvero balistiche capaci di viaggiare molte volte più veloci del suono anche a bassa altitudine, compiendo nel caso mutamenti di rotta ed operazioni di disimpegno.

Sebbene possano essere utilizzati in una guerra di offesa, il loro impiego caratteristico è sulle distanze brevi o medie: l’avversario collimato avrebbe un tempo di pochi minuti per inquadrare l’attacco missilistico e porre in atto le relative difese. Nel caso poi di guerra navale, le portaerei potrebbero essere bersagli preferiti.

Un aspetto che li rende temibili consiste nel fatto che i sistemi radar di avvistamento erano stati progettati per identificare oggetti volanti a velocità di poco superiori a quella del suono.

Al momento è impossibile dire quanto questi missili ipersonici siano affidabili, e nessuno muore dal desiderio di vederli utilizzati al solo scopo di soddisfare questa insana voglietta. Ma la loro stessa presenza rende inquiete tutte le persone che si occupano di codesti problemi con cognizione dei dati di fatto.

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Russia. I missili intercontinentali ipersonici Avangard sono operativi.

Russia’s ‘invincible’ hypersonic weapon that can strike anywhere in the world in MINUTES will be ready for war by 2020

Russia’s city-destroying super-nuke Avangard that travels at TWENTY times the speed of sound will be ready for take-off next year

Gli Stati Uniti sono in allarme per i super missili ipersonici russi

Missili ipersonici: rottura dell’attuale stabilità strategica tra Stati Uniti, Cina e Russia e rivoluzione nelle tattiche militari

Missili a 6 volte la velocità del suono, testati in Cina nuovi velivoli ipersonici

Putin presenzia al test di Avangard. Un missile a testa nucleare da Mach 20.

Russia. Entra in fase di test il missile ipersonico 3M22 Zircon.

Russia. Schierati gli Iskander a Kalinigrad. Hanno svegliato l’orso che dormiva.

Armamenti Nucleari. È in atto una corsa al riarmo per la prossima guerra.

9M729, Iskander, Kalibr, S-400, S500. Putin è un gran costruttore di missili.

Cina. Dispiegati nel sud-est asiatico gli S-400 russi.

Medio Oriente. La Russia fornirà sistemi S-400 all’Arabia Saudita.

Turkia. Firmato contratto S-400. Si dice siano già operativi.

Russia. I siluri Khishchnik e VA-111 Shkval. Serie minacce alle portaerei.

Russia. Kulikovo, Kaliningrad, ospiterebbe un arsenale atomico russo.

Kaliningrad. Zeppo di missili atomici adesso anche black hole.

* * * * * * *

«Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Sunday the Russian Navy would be armed with hypersonic nuclear strike weapons and underwater nuclear drones, which the defence ministry said were in their final phase of testing.»

«The weapons, some of which have yet to be deployed, include the Poseidon underwater nuclear drone, designed to be carried by submarines, and the Tsirkon (Zircon) hypersonic cruise missile, which can be deployed on surface ships»

«The combination of speed, manoeuvrability and altitude of hypersonic missiles, capable of travelling at more than five times the speed of sound, makes them difficult to track and intercept»

«The widespread deployment of advanced digital technologies that have no equals in the world, including hypersonic strike systems and underwater drones, will give the fleet unique advantages and increased combat capabilities»

«the defence ministry said testing of the Belgorod, the first submarine capable of carrying the Poseidon drones, was underway and testing of the weapons systems was nearing completion.»

* * * * * * *

Sembrerebbe essere cosa logica che anche gli Stati Uniti dispongano di armamenti di tali caratteristiche. Tuttavia si dovrebbe notare come i loro potenziali avversari non dispongano di una marineria militare in grado di agire a livello globale: nei fatti questa tipologia di missili sarebbe per loro di ben scarsa utilità.

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Putin says Russian Navy to get hypersonic nuclear strike weapons.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Sunday the Russian Navy would be armed with hypersonic nuclear strike weapons and underwater nuclear drones, which the defence ministry said were in their final phase of testing.

Putin, who says he does not want an arms race, has often spoken of a new generation of Russian nuclear weapons that he says are unequalled and can hit almost anywhere in the world. Some Western experts have questioned how advanced they are.

The weapons, some of which have yet to be deployed, include the Poseidon underwater nuclear drone, designed to be carried by submarines, and the Tsirkon (Zircon) hypersonic cruise missile, which can be deployed on surface ships.

The combination of speed, manoeuvrability and altitude of hypersonic missiles, capable of travelling at more than five times the speed of sound, makes them difficult to track and intercept.

Speaking in St Petersburg at an annual naval parade that showcases Russia’s best ships, nuclear submarines and naval aviation, Putin said the navy’s capabilities were growing and it would get 40 new vessels this year.

He did not specify when it would receive new hypersonic weapons, but suggested that day was drawing closer.

“The widespread deployment of advanced digital technologies that have no equals in the world, including hypersonic strike systems and underwater drones, will give the fleet unique advantages and increased combat capabilities,” Putin said.

In a separate statement released via Russian news agencies, the defence ministry said testing of the Belgorod, the first submarine capable of carrying the Poseidon drones, was underway and testing of the weapons systems was nearing completion.

“Work is being successfully completed to create modern weapons systems for the Navy,” it was cited as saying.

Putin last year threatened to deploy hypersonic missiles on ships and submarines that could lurk outside U.S. territorial waters if the United States moved to deploy intermediate-range nuclear weapons in Europe.

Washington has not deployed such missiles in Europe, but Moscow is worried it might.

Pubblicato in: Armamenti, Geopolitica Militare

Armamenti Nucleari. È in atto una corsa al riarmo per la prossima guerra.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-06-24.

2020-06-20__Guerra Atomica 013

Nei loro settanta anni di esistenza, gli armamenti atomici hanno subito continui sviluppo e miglioramenti. Gli attuali vettori hanno anche loro raggiunto un elevato grado di sofisticazione e sono state sviluppate sia testate ad altissimo potenziale, sia a potenziale minimo, per un impiego tattico.

Negli ultimi lustri ha preso campo una nuova corsa agli armamenti atomici, con ampliamento della platea degli stati che ne dispongono. Tutto questo esita in nuovi equilibri di precaria e difficile gestione.

* * * * * * *

«This nuclear arms race is worse than the last one»

«With the stability of the Cold War gone, the risk of nuclear war keeps rising»

«Only old-fashioned multilateralism can save us in the long term.»

«Yes, the global stockpile of nuclear warheads decreased slightly last year, …. But that’s only because the U.S. and Russia, the two countries that still account for more than 90% of global nuclear stocks, dismantled some of their obsolescent warheads.»

«Meanwhile, all nine countries with nukes are modernizing their other warheads and delivery systems»

«France successfully fired, from a submarine, a nuclear missile that can travel between continents at 20 times the speed of sound»

«Even more worryingly, states are reviewing their strategies for using these weapons»

«Gone is the amoral but logical stability of the Cold War, when two superpowers kept each other and the world in check with a credible threat of “Mutual Assured Destruction” (MAD)»

«Russia, for instance, increasingly sees smaller “tactical” warheads as a possible way to compensate for weaknesses in its other military forces»

«There’s also speculation that India could soften its policy, adopted in 1998, never to be the first to use a nuclear weapon»

«Such thought experiments are no small matter for a country with two hostile and nuclear-armed neighbors, Pakistan and China»

«Meanwhile, all efforts to limit or reduce nuclear weapons have ground to a halt»

«A treaty between the U.S. and the Soviet Union that eliminated land-based missiles with short and intermediate ranges collapsed last year»

«China, which sees itself as merely catching up with the two nuclear kingpins, balks at accepting any limits»

«Between naivety in Germany, belligerence in Russia, ambition in China, inanity in Trumpist America and brinkmanship in North Korea, the outlook is grim»

«Egomaniacs or rogues could be tempted to test the boundaries in their foes’ deterrence plans, and human error could compound the folly»

«What’s more, the climate in international relations isn’t exactly conducive to solutions»

* * * * * * *

La messa in linea di missili ipersonici, quello francese citato viaggia a venti volte la velocità del suono, e la disponibilità di ordigni di bassissima potenza genera da una parte l’impossibilità di intercettazione, dall’altra il prurito di poter risolvere un conflitto solo con armi  tattiche.

Nel contempo, se per arrivare ai vertici di una superpotenza l’aspra difficoltà dell’impresa seleziona persone dai nervi ben saldi, nel caso di piccoli stati il pericolo che chi abbia il potere sia “egomaniacs” sembrerebbe essere ben poco trascurabile. Si aggiunga infine il fatto che “human error could compound the folly”.

Per sintetizzare, le possibilità di un conflitto che usi armamenti atomici è sicuramente aumentato.

*


Bloomberg. This Nuclear Arms Race Is Worse Than the Last One

With the stability of the Cold War gone, the risk of nuclear war keeps rising. Only old-fashioned multilateralism can save us in the long term.

As long as the pandemic rages, the world’s leaders are understandably preoccupied with the threat of disease. But there are other dangers to humanity that demand attention. One of the most frightening is nuclear war. Unfortunately, the risk of that happening keeps rising.

The headline numbers are misleading. Yes, the global stockpile of nuclear warheads decreased slightly last year, according to the latest report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. But that’s only because the U.S. and Russia, the two countries that still account for more than 90% of global nuclear stocks, dismantled some of their obsolescent warheads.

Meanwhile, all nine countries with nukes are modernizing their other warheads and delivery systems. In a test just last week, France successfully fired, from a submarine, a nuclear missile that can travel between continents at 20 times the speed of sound. Other countries, most notably China, are adding to their nuclear stashes as fast as they can.

Even more worryingly, states are reviewing their strategies for using these weapons. Gone is the amoral but logical stability of the Cold War, when two superpowers kept each other and the world in check with a credible threat of “Mutual Assured Destruction” (MAD).

Russia, for instance, increasingly sees smaller “tactical” warheads as a possible way to compensate for weaknesses in its other military forces. It’s conceivable that a conflict starting with hybrid warfare — ranging from disinformation campaigns to soldiers in unmarked uniforms — could escalate to a conventional war and a limited nuclear strike, inviting a counter strike and so forth.

There’s also speculation that India could soften its policy, adopted in 1998, never to be the first to use a nuclear weapon. Such thought experiments are no small matter for a country with two hostile and nuclear-armed neighbors, Pakistan and China. Just this week, India and China clashed again over their disputed border in the Himalayas. What North Korea could get up to in a crisis that it itself provokes is anybody’s guess.        

Meanwhile, all efforts to limit or reduce nuclear weapons have ground to a halt. A treaty between the U.S. and the Soviet Union that eliminated land-based missiles with short and intermediate ranges collapsed last year, after the U.S. accused Russia of cheating.

And the two old foes aren’t even close to extending their only remaining arms-control agreement, called New START, which expires in February. One reason for that failure was America’s insistence that the third and rising superpower should join the negotiations. But China, which sees itself as merely catching up with the two nuclear kingpins, balks at accepting any limits.

Progress has also stalled in updating the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, exactly 50 years after it took effect. It sought to keep additional countries from making bombs by encouraging them to use fissile material (uranium or plutonium) only for civilian purposes such as generating electricity. But five countries have gone nuclear since it was signed. Worse, game theory suggests that it’s rational for more states to follow. Iran could be next.

The only international agreement to ban these evil weapons altogether, the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons passed by the United Nations in 2017, has the same chance as a snowball in a fission event. No member of the nuclear club intends to ratify it, nor do many other countries.

As if all that weren’t bad enough, doubt is also creeping into the transatlantic alliance, undermining its credibility and thus the deterrence that’s so vital to preventing war. Germans, in particular, are aghast at their treatment by U.S. President Donald Trump, who this week chastised them as “delinquent” allies and confirmed that he will withdraw about one in four American troops from Germany.

In May, several leaders of Germany’s Social Democrats, a party with a tradition of anti-Americanism, even suggested opting out of NATO’s policy of “nuclear sharing,” whereby some allies, such as Germany, forego building their own nukes but provide the airplanes to deliver U.S. bombs in a pinch. This policy is meant to make joint deterrence more credible. But to German lefties, distrust of Trump is enough reason to challenge its logic. Fortunately, Chancellor Angela Merkel quickly overruled them.

Between naivety in Germany, belligerence in Russia, ambition in China, inanity in Trumpist America and brinkmanship in North Korea, the outlook is grim. Egomaniacs or rogues could be tempted to test the boundaries in their foes’ deterrence plans, and human error could compound the folly.

What’s more, the climate in international relations isn’t exactly conducive to solutions. The world leaders who matter most are so busy with “trade wars” and “vaccine nationalism,” they can barely even imagine sitting around a table with people they loathe but should talk to, an activity known formerly as diplomacy.

But they must rise above themselves. If they can’t, the rest of us, from voters to the military brass, should force them. Only patient multilateralism, as unsexy as that polysyllabic Latin word may sound to alpha males, can save us in the long run. Otherwise, to use a Cold War metaphor, the nations of the world will find themselves standing in a room awash with gasoline, each counting who has how many matches, until one is lit.