Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Alitalia. Dovrebbe essere venduta dopo le elezioni.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-02-21.

2018-02-21__Alitalia__001

Alitalia ed Ilva hanno fornito per più di un decennio lo stimolo all’uso di fiumi di inchiostro: oceani di parole ma ci sono sempre rimaste sul groppone.

Impossibile sanarle con un’azione dall’interno: hanno bisogno di nuovi padroni che le trattino come loro si addice.

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«Sarà venduta dopo le elezioni»

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«Deve essere venduta perché da sola non ce la fa a stare in piedi soprattutto ora che c’è un competitor»

Così afferma il Ministro Calenda, che molto probabilmente dopo il 4 marzo non sarà più attore in questa contrattazione.

Non vorremmo entrare nel merito, anche per non dover dire cose davvero amare.

Guardiamo sconsolati la fotocopia del Sole 24 Ore del 21 febbraio 2008, ossia di dieci anni fa.

Sufficit.


Giornale. 2018-02-21. Embraco, Calenda: “Fondo anti delocalizzazione, Alitalia venduta dopo il voto”

Il ministro Calenda oggi a Bruxelles per la vicenda Embraco: “Stop agli atti sleali”. E su Alitalia: “Sarà venduta dopo le elezioni”.

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A dirlo è Carlo Calenda, secondo cui la trattativa è solo “congelata” in vista delle elezioni politiche.

“Questa cosa che Alitalia e Ilva sono state messe sotto il tappeto è destituita di ogni fondamento”, dice il ministro per lo Sviluppo economico a Radio Anch’io su RadioUno, “Alitalia oggi ha una gestione che è migliorata, non ha toccato un euro del prestito dello Stato. Era tutta mia intenzione chiudere il prima possibile, ma i pretendenti, cioè Lufthansa e Air France, vogliono attendere le elezioni per avere un chiaro scenario politico. Io non le posso obbligare a comprare. Deve essere venduta perché da sola non ce la fa a stare in piedi soprattutto ora che c’è un competitor”.

Discorso diverso per l’Ilva: “C’è un cosiddetto arbitrato in corso”, ha ricordato Calenda, “Ha i suoi tempi e che si conclude dopo le elezioni, e c’è un negoziato coi sindacati, che è molto complesso”.

Al momento però il ministro deve occuparsi della vicenda Embraco, l’azienda che produce i motori dei frigoriferi Whirlpool e che ha deciso di licenziare praticamente tutto il personale dello stabilimento di Riva di Chieri, nel torinese, per delocalizzare a Est. Per questo Calenda – che oggi andrà a Bruxelles per affrontare la vicenda con l’Unione europea – chiede un fondo per evitare le fughe all’estero delle aziende, che prevenga le delocalizzazioni e “metta pacchetti che vadano oltre la normativa sugli aiuti di Stato per chi vuole andare a produrre altrove in Europa in condizioni di vantaggio legate al diverso grado di sviluppo dei Paesi”. “Abbiamo bisogno di strumenti più forti”, spiega in un’intervista al Corriere, “Quando c’è un Paese che offre un pacchetto di finanziamenti localizzativo anche conforme agli aiuti di Stato, ma che beneficia di condizioni più favorevoli, io devo essere in grado di operare al di fuori degli aiuti di Stato e offrire le medesime condizioni, ma voglio capire il perimetro entro cui posso dare applicazione pratica di questa misura”.

Annunci
Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Stati Uniti, Trump

Trump. Il piano infrastrutturale da 1,500 mld Usd.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-02-18.

2018-02-13__Trump__001

«This will be a big week for Infrastructure. After so stupidly spending $7 trillion in the Middle East, it is now time to start investing in OUR Country!» [Mr. Trumptweeted.]

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«One of the president’s major campaign promises was a renewed commitment to infrastructure, but the plan has been delayed as health cares and tax reform took precedent in the administration’s first year. Mr. Trump is set to reveal his plan in full later Monday, but a preview of the rollout shows $1.5 trillion investment to improve roads and airports as well as an overhaul of the federal permit process»

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Si dovrebbe dare atto al Presidente Trump di aver portato alla White House una ventata di sano buon senso.

Come spesso abbiamo ripetuto, Mr Trump è un pragmatico, non vincolato da orpelli ideologici, motivo per il quale si sente libero nel scegliere le azioni che più ritenesse essere opportune.

L’obiettivo finale è semplicemente quello di far lavorare e guadagnare di più il popolo americano. Ma per Mr Trump il ‘popolo americano‘ non corrisponde per nulla alla ristretta cerchia liberal: sono la povera gente che tira avanti la baracca a mala pena, che deve far quadrare il pranzo con la cena, ma anche gente che vota.

Lasciare che il popolo possa lavorare in santa pace e tenersi in tasca il frutto del duro lavoro è la massima cardine di Mr Trump.

Si tenga conto che il pil procapite mediano negli Stati Uniti è 17,593.00 Usd. Si ricordi come il valore mediano sia quello al di sotto del quale vive la metà della popolazione. La realtà americana è ben diversa da quella di lustrini e paillettes che i media liberal vorrebbero propinarci.

Infine: la migliora propaganda elettorale e lasciare lavorare e guadagnare la gente.

Trump il Grande. Riducendo le tasse aumentano stipendi, pensioni ed investimenti. 2,800 miliardi.

Con il drastico taglio delle tasse stanno rientrando negli Stati Uniti ingenti quantità di fondi prima allocati all’estero e le società ripartiscono questo surplus aumentando i dividendi e gli stipendi, nonché gli investimenti. Certo. gli effetti benefici si dispiegheranno lentamente nel tempo, ma l’effetto finale è assicurato.

Adesso, la seconda manche.

«President Trump will roll out Monday a long-awaited $1.5 trillion infrastructure plan that sticks to his “on time and under budget” mantra by seeking to speed up and cut costs of construction projects via a major overhaul of the federal permit process»

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«They said the plan would budget $200 billion over 10 years to leverage the bigger investment by state and local governments, with the $200 billion of new spending offset with unspecified cuts elsewhere in the president’s 2019 budget, which also is being released Monday»

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«The plan outlined by the White House sets four goals:

–  Stimulate $1.5 trillion of new investment in infrastructure.

– Shorten the permitting process to two years.

– Target invest in rural infrastructure such as broadband internet service with $50 billion in block grants to states.

– Improve workforce training, including expanding Pell Grant eligibility to students pursuing certification or credentials for in-demand fields»

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Gli investimenti sono cospicui, ma il cuore del provvedimento è ben altro.

«a major overhaul of the federal permit process»

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«Shorten the permitting process to two years»

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Deburocratizzare.

Questa è la parola magica di cui l’Occidente aveva bisogno come l’aria da respirare in un mondo di persone pratiche, quali i cinesi, gli indiani ed i russi.

Riduzione delle tasse ed investimenti nel comparto produttivo: ecco la vera risposta alle sfide mondiali.

Tutto il resto è aria fritta.

Lasciamo pure che i liberals si occupino a tempo pieno dei sexual harassment, dei loro problemi sessuali e così via.

Parlino pure tra di loro in termini politicamente corretti: tanto gli Elettori non se ne fanno mica più nulla.

Il loro silenzio in materia di provvedimenti economici suona coma la loro condanna.


The Washington Times. 2018-02-12. Trump to release $1.5 trillion infrastructure plan on Monday

President Trump will roll out Monday a long-awaited $1.5 trillion infrastructure plan that sticks to his “on time and under budget” mantra by seeking to speed up and cut costs of construction projects via a major overhaul of the federal permit process.

Mr. Trump wants to repair not just roads and airports but also a federal system for building and maintaining infrastructure that is “fundamentally broken,” said senior White House advisers who gave reporters a preview of the plan.

“It’s broken in two different ways: We are under-investing in our infrastructure, and we have a permitting process that takes so long that even when funds are adequate, it can take a decade to build critical infrastructure,” said one official.

They said the plan would budget $200 billion over 10 years to leverage the bigger investment by state and local governments, with the $200 billion of new spending offset with unspecified cuts elsewhere in the president’s 2019 budget, which also is being released Monday.

The plan outlined by the White House sets four goals:

–  Stimulate $1.5 trillion of new investment in infrastructure.

– Shorten the permitting process to two years.

– Target invest in rural infrastructure such as broadband internet service with $50 billion in block grants to states.

– Improve workforce training, including expanding Pell Grant eligibility to students pursuing certification or credentials for in-demand fields.

The White House hopes the popularity of rebuilding America’s highways, bridges, railroads and seaports will be enough to attract rare bipartisan support in Congress.

A team of White House officials have spent a year on Capitol Hill developing the plan, but stiff resistance is still expected, especially from Democrats who recoil from changes to environmental regulations and demand at least $1 trillion in direct federal spending on infrastructure.

The president plans to travel the country to drum up popular support of his plan. He will highlight desperately needed infrastructure across the country and visit places where state and local governments have taken innovative steps to finance construction, showing the types of projects he wants to enable, officials said.

Mr. Trump made the same pitch in the State of the Union address: “I am asking both parties to come together to give us the safe, fast, reliable, and modern infrastructure our economy needs and our people deserve. Together, we can reclaim our building heritage. We will build gleaming new roads, bridges, highways, railways, and waterways across our land. And we will do it with American heart, American hands, and American grit.”

Only a handful of Democrats in the House chamber stood to applaud.

The Center for American Progress, a liberal Washington think tank, warned the plan would be a “scam” paid for by slashing social programs, shifting billions of dollars in costs to states and cities, and sidestepping public health and environmental protections.

Still, White House officials insist they are encouraged that there is broad agreement about the goal of infrastructure improvement and welcomes the debate on the method to accomplish it.

“This in no way, shape, or form should be considering a take-it-or-leave-it proposal,” said a White House official. “This is the start of a negotiation — bicameral bipartisan negotiation — to find the best solution for infrastructure in the U.S.”

The White House got a more enthusiastic response than expected from state governments, prompting Mr. Trump to up the goal from the original $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion from the same $200 billion federal payout.

The $200 billion would be divvied out in five categories:

–  An incentive program would use $100 billion for matching state and local government spending on projects, dealing filling in the final gaps in funding.

– Rural infrastructure grants get $50 billion.

– A $20 billion expansion in loan program and private activity bonds to finance projects.

– Another $20 billion for what the White House called “transformative programs” for visionary projects that prepare the U.S. for the future.

– And $10 billion for a capital financing to fund the federal governments’ office building projects.

An official described transformative projects as ones that “lift the American spirit” as opposed to just rebuilding what’s already there.

Jay Timmons, president of the National Association of Manufacturers, cheered the plan.

“President Trump is providing the leadership we have desperately needed to reclaim our rightful place as global leader on true 21st century infrastructure,” he said. “There is no excuse for inaction, and manufacturers are committed to ensuring that America seizes this opportunity.”

The hallmark of the plan is the effort to streamline the Byzantine federal approval process, but officials stressed that they were not rolling back public health and environmental protections.

“We want to shorten the process but, at the same time, preserve all of the environmental protections that current law has,” said an official.

Under the plan, the government would adopt a “One Agency, One Decision” structure, eliminating multi-agency reviews and approvals that slow the process.

It would remove the current series of duplicative requirements that are in law, where often a decision by one federal agency is second-guessed by another, creating turf wars and inevitable delays.

Mr. Trump’s idea is that for every decision that needs to be made, find the agency that has the best expertise and give them the authority to make that decision. Other agencies would then partner with the lead agency to execute the decision.


The Washington Times. 2018-02-12. Trump: Big week for infrastructure with new plan unveiled

President Trump declared Monday that the long-awaited infrastructure week finally arrived.

“This will be a big week for Infrastructure. After so stupidly spending $7 trillion in the Middle East, it is now time to start investing in OUR Country!” Mr. Trumptweeted.

One of the president’s major campaign promises was a renewed commitment to infrastructure, but the plan has been delayed as health cares and tax reform took precedent in the administration’s first year. Mr. Trump is set to reveal his plan in full later Monday, but a preview of the rollout shows $1.5 trillion investment to improve roads and airports as well as an overhaul of the federal permit process.

The plan is one that the White House hopes will gain bipartisan support as Democrats have been pushing for a similar proposal.

Pubblicato in: Economia e Produzione Industriale, Problemia Energetici

Petrolio. Usa superano Arabia Saudita: 10 contro 9.95 mbg.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-02-06.

Cane e Coniglio

Sulla scorta degli ultimi dati disponibili, la Russia si conferma primo produttore di petrolio al mondo con 11.33 mgb, mentre gli Stati Uniti sorpassano con 10 mbg la produzione dell’Arabia Saudita di 9.95 mbg.

Questi dati danno molto cui pensare.

La principale considerazione verte cosa significhi e valga l’Opec.

Russia, Stati Uniti ed Arabia producono larga quota del totale mondiale: da soli sono in grado di condizionare il mercato. Contro un simile cartello, le esigenze di paesi con produzione anche molto buona, quali per esempio Iran, Emirati Arabi Uniti, Messico e Kuwait avrebbero davvero poco peso.

«Negli Usa il livello di produzione dipende esclusivamente dalle leggi del mercato, della tecnologia e – qualche volta – della natura»

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«L’Arabia Saudita da sempre evita di estrarre alla massima capacità, per conservare una sorta di “cuscinetto” (la cosiddetta spare capacity) da impiegare in caso di emergenze, per contrastare sbalzi indesiderati del prezzo del petrolio.»

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«Riad, se volesse, sarebbe in grado di arrivare a 12,5 m»

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A parere di molti esperti del settore, America, Arabia Saudita e Russia sembrerebbero essere molto più coordinate nella produzione di quanto potrebbe sembrare dai report della stampa.


Sole 24 Ore. 2018-02-01. Gli Usa dello shale producono più petrolio dell’Arabia Saudita

Era un sorpasso annunciato, ma gli Stati Uniti dello shale oil sono riusciti a superare la produzione petrolifera dell’Arabia Saudita prima del previsto: il traguardo dei 10 milioni di barili al giorno è stato tagliato lo scorso novembre, Washington pensava che sarebbe accaduto a febbraio 2018.

Record anticipato dunque per gli Usa, che non estraevano tanto greggio dal lontano 1970: l’output ha raggiunto per la precisione 10,038 mbg secondo l’Energy Information Administration (Eia), che fa capo al dipartimento dell’Energia.

Nello stesso mese Riad si è fermata a 9,95 mbg, stima l’Agenzia internazionale dell’energia (Aie). La Russia ha invece prodotto 11,33 mbg, confermandosi al primo posto nel mondo. Entrambi i Paesi stanno comunque tagliando volontaria la produzione, secondo gli impegni assunti nell’ambito dell’Opec Plus.

Inoltre l’Arabia Saudita da sempre evita di estrarre alla massima capacità, per conservare una sorta di “cuscinetto” (la cosiddetta spare capacity) da impiegare in caso di emergenze, per contrastare sbalzi indesiderati del prezzo del petrolio. Riad, se volesse, sarebbe in grado di arrivare a 12,5 mbg.

Negli Usa il livello di produzione dipende esclusivamente dalle leggi del mercato, della tecnologia e – qualche volta – della natura. La forte accelerazione dell’output a novembre (+384mila bg rispetto a ottobre) dipende in buona parte anche dal ritorno in attività dei pozzi offshore del Golfo del Messico, che erano stati fermati a causa dell’uragano Nate.

I giacimenti in quell’area – di petrolio convenzionale – sono tutt’altro che estranei alla formidabile crescita della produzione Usa. Proprio ieri peraltro Royal Dutch Shell, insieme a Chevron, ha annunciato una scoperta nel Golfo del Messico che afferma essere «una delle più grandi nell’ultimo decennio», tra quelle effettuate dalla compagnia stessa.

Lo shale oil resta comunque il motore principale del ritorno degli Usa al rango di super-potenza petrolifera. Dal 2014 grazie al fracking Washington ha aumentato l’output di greggio di ben 2,4 mbg. Col rally del petrolio la produzione è tornata a correre e l’Aie prevede una crescita «esplosiva» nei prossimi mesi, che porterà a superare anche la Russia.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Senza categoria

Vix sparato a 37.32, +115.60%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-02-06.

2018-02-06__Vix__001

«Il Vix (Cboe Volatility index) è l’indice che misura la volatilità (la “velocità”) implicita (futura nei 30 giorni successivi) delle variazioni di prezzo delle principali 500 azioni quotate alla Borsa di Neew York, quelle dell’indice S&P 500. Il Vix è un paniere ponderato di opzioni, sia call (acquisto) sia put (vendita). Se il mercato è stabile, il premio delle opzioni rimane basso. Se la volatilità implicita aumenta, allora anche i premi crescono, facendo così salire l’indice. Di norma quando l’S&P500 scende il Vix dovrebbe salire, mentre, quando l’indice azionario sale, il Vix dovrebbe scendere.» [Sole 24 Ore]

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Ci si prepari quindi ad assistere a rivolgimenti e scossoni.

Una grande quantità di titoli azionari, ed anche titoli di stato, sono sopravalutati. Adesso tutti sono stati avvisati. E chiaramente.

Pubblicato in: Economia e Produzione Industriale, Medio Oriente, Problemia Energetici

Egitto. L’Eni ha già avviato la produzione dal campo Zohr.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-02-05.

Zohr Egitto giacimento-eni-zohr

«Eni ha avviato “in meno di 2 anni e mezzo, un tempo record per questa tipologia di giacimento”, la produzione nel giacimento di Zohr»

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«La scoperta, che si trova nel blocco di Shorouk, nell’offshore dell’Egitto a circa 190 chilometri a nord di Port Said, ha un potenziale di oltre 850 miliardi di metri cubi di gas in posto (circa 5,5 miliardi di barili di olio equivalente)»

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«la più grande scoperta di gas mai effettuata in Egitto e nel Mar Mediterraneo e sarà in grado di soddisfare parte della domanda egiziana di gas naturale per i prossimi decenni»

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«è la testimonianza del successo del Dual Exploration Model di Eni, adottato dalla società dal 2013. Questo approccio si basa su un principio semplice: mentre si accrescono le riserve di idrocarburi attraverso i successi esplorativi, si trae vantaggio dalla monetizzazione anticipata ottenuta attraverso la cessione di quote di minoranza, mantenendo comunque il controllo e l’operatorship dell’asset»

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«Eni ha il 60% nella concessione Shorouk, Rosneft il 30% e BP il 10%. La società è co-operatore del progetto attraverso Petrobel, detenuta pariteticamente da Eni e dalla società di stato Egyptian General Petroleum (EGPC), per conto di Petroshorouk, società detenuta pariteticamente da Eni e Egyptian Natural Gas holding Company»

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Eni è una grande società, con ottime capacità operative ed un dirigenza di primo livello.

Per sua disgrazia ha sede sociale in Italia, ove è sottoposta ad un regime fiscale molto elevato rispetto alle altre grandi compagnie petrolifere. Handicap non da poco, specie se coniugato con le bramose voglie di molte componenti politiche che avrebbero avuto più che voglia di colonizzarla a fini espoliativi.

Tutta l’operazione sul campo Zohr alla fine potrebbe rendere l’intero Egitto quasi autosufficiente dal punto di vista energetico. Si tenga anche presente come l’Egitto si stia apprestando ad entrare nel nucleare.

Egitto. Impianto Nucleare russo di Al Dabaa funzionante per il 2022.

Aspetto questo di non poca rilevanza, che verosimilmente potrebbe costituire una svolta nelle prospettive di politica estera di questo grande paese, a cavaliere tra Mare mediterraneo ed Oceano Indiano, nonché proprietario del Canale di Suez.


Camera Cooperazione Italo – Araba. 2017-12-20. Eni avvia in tempi record la produzione di gas nel giacimento di Zohr

Eni ha avviato “in meno di 2 anni e mezzo, un tempo record per questa tipologia di giacimento”, la produzione nel giacimento di Zohr. La scoperta, che si trova nel blocco di Shorouk, nell’offshore dell’Egitto a circa 190 chilometri a nord di Port Said, ha un potenziale di oltre 850 miliardi di metri cubi di gas in posto (circa 5,5 miliardi di barili di olio equivalente). Lo rende noto la società in una nota in cui ricorda che Zohr, scoperto ad agosto 2015, “rappresenta la più grande scoperta di gas mai effettuata in Egitto e nel Mar Mediterraneo e sarà in grado di soddisfare parte della domanda egiziana di gas naturale per i prossimi decenni”.

Zohr – sottolinea il gruppo petrolifero – “è uno dei 7 progetti record di Eni, caratterizzati da sviluppo e messa in produzione in tempi rapidi. Eni ha il 60% nella concessione Shorouk, Rosneft il 30% e BP il 10%. La società è co-operatore del progetto attraverso Petrobel, detenuta pariteticamente da Eni e dalla società di stato Egyptian General Petroleum (EGPC), per conto di Petroshorouk, società detenuta pariteticamente da Eni e Egyptian Natural Gas holding Company.

Eni – ribadisce il gruppo – è presente in Egitto dal 1954, dove opera attraverso la controllata IEOC Production BV. La società è il principale produttore del paese con una produzione equity pari a circa 230.000 barili di olio equivalente al giorno. Zohr – conclude la nota – “è la testimonianza del successo del Dual Exploration Model di Eni, adottato dalla società dal 2013. Questo approccio si basa su un principio semplice: mentre si accrescono le riserve di idrocarburi attraverso i successi esplorativi, si trae vantaggio dalla monetizzazione anticipata ottenuta attraverso la cessione di quote di minoranza, mantenendo comunque il controllo e l’operatorship dell’asset.

Conducendo in parallelo le fasi di esplorazione, di appraisal e di sviluppo, il time-to-market è più rapido e c’è una riduzione dei costi per la messa in produzione delle scoperte e un cash flow anticipato. Questa combinazione vincente – spiega Eni – ha permesso alla società di generare tra il 2014 e il 2017 circa 9 miliardi di dollari dalle attività di esplorazione”

Pubblicato in: Cina, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Geopolitica Asiatica, Unione Europea

Cina ed il dominio sul delta del Mekong.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-01-28.

Mekong 001

La stupefacente difficoltà a comprendere, ed accettare perché esiste, la realtà politica, sociale ed economica cinese da parte dei politici occidentali mette a durissima prova la capacità di resistenza mentale di quanti operino invece nel settore, che trovano in questo il loro più grande ostacolo operativo.

Eppure potrebbe benissimo capire la Cina anche un bambino di sei anni, purché non prevenuto, onesto e con un QI almeno superiore a quello di un orango. Ma l’ideologia acceca, ottunde.

Parole dure?

Parole troppo dolci e sussurrate in termini fin troppo politicamente corretti.

I cinesi sono dei pragmatici totalmente tetragoni alle ideologie: questo è il discrimine.

Non solo. Quando gli stati occidentali riescono a mettere da parte un qualche surplus, immediatamente lo utilizzano nel loro welfare, mentre i cinesi lo impiegano per conquistare il mondo. Se il surplus non ci fosse, ebbene, gli occidentali farebbero debiti.

Cina. 1000TTP. Ne ignorate la esistenza. Domani vi mangerete le dita.

Macron consegna l’ultimatum EU alla Cina. Mr Xi terrificato.

Cina risponde all’ultimatum di Macron in stile cinese.

Cina alla conquista dell’America Latina. – Bloomberg

Cina. Centrali elettriche nucleari. 37 reattori attivi, 60 in costruzione, 179 programmati.

Obor. Progetto cinese su di un terzo del pil mondiale, per ora.

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Ma la grande differenza la si vede in un settore non economico. Riportiamo a seguito le parole di Mr Liu Zoukui.

«We in China think that all countries have the right to determine their own foreign policy»

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«China is not meddling in political debates»

A questo fa riscontro la visione ideologica degli occidentali.

Is Cambodia an autocratic state now? 

Activists slam jailing of protesters in Cambodia

EU cuts off funds for Cambodia election after opposition party dissolved

«For many years, Cambodia has largely depended on financial support from Western countries. This is changing and Chinese aid and loans to Cambodia now far exceed those of the US»

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«And contrary to the West, China doesn’t set conditions when it comes to protecting human rights and democracy. With Beijing on his side, Cambodian PM Hun Sen has criticized the West and accused the US of attempting to overthrow his government»

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«Diminished US strategic leadership in the region also pushes Mekong states to turn to China»

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L’attuale clima politico occidentale non vuole aver nulla a che fare con stati che non ne accettino la propria Weltanschauung atea, liberal e statalista. Ma il fatto di voler ignorare ed osteggiare la presenza di codeste realtà non le elimina affatto: semplicemente le spinge verso l’orbita cinese.

Da questo punto di vista la geopolitica del delta del Mekong sembrerebbe essere da manuale, specie poi includendovi la situazione delle Filippine.

L’Occidente ha regalato alla Cina l’intero scacchiere del sud est asiatico. Sicuramente molti dei governi in tale scacchiere geopolitico non sono dei fiordalisi, ma ci si dovrebbe anche chiedere da quale pulpito provenga la predica.

Guardate con attenzione la carta geografica, e vi renderete immediatamente conto dell’enormità commessa.


Deutsche Welle. 2018-01-15. Is Chinese investment taking over the Mekong?

China is shoring up its sphere of influence in Southeast Asia through aid and investment. By funding infrastructure and development, China can increase its economic and strategic leverage over poorer neighbors.

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Last week, China and Cambodia signed 19 agreements during Chinese Premier Li Keqiang’s meeting in Phnom Penh with Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen that will heavily increase Chinese investment in Cambodia.

The deals included the construction of a highway linking Phnom Penh with the port city Sihanoukville and an expansion of the capital’s international airport. Deals were also signed to build Cambodia’s first communication satellite and for “rice trade,” the Phnom Penh Post reported.

Over the past few years, China’s influence in the Mekong region has increased significantly. Beijing is the largest foreign investor in Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar and has strengthened its presence in Thailand.

In exchange for aid and investments, China gets access to natural resources such as oil, gas and timber, and can garner support for building dams along the Mekong River. Cambodia also supports China in its ongoing territorial dispute over the South China Sea.

Premier Li announced that China is offering more government concessional loans with a total value of 7 billion yuan (€896 million, $1.1 billion) to the lower Mekong countries – Thailand, Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam and Cambodia.

In Cambodia, Chinese companies are building new roads, bridges and skyscrapers, including the multimillion-dollar One Park project in Phnom Penh. The project includes condominiums and business high-rises being built on reclaimed land that used to be Boeung Kak Lake.

The eviction of thousands of people has led to ongoing protests. The area is being developed by the Chinese companies Graticity Real Estate Development and China State Construction Engineering Cooperation.

Diminishing influence of the West

For many years, Cambodia has largely depended on financial support from Western countries. This is changing and Chinese aid and loans to Cambodia now far exceed those of the US.

And contrary to the West, China doesn’t set conditions when it comes to protecting human rights and democracy. With Beijing on his side, Cambodian PM Hun Sen has criticized the West and accused the US of attempting to overthrow his government.

Carl Thayer, a Southeast Asia expert with the University of New South Wales in Australia, told DW that Cambodia “will continue to embrace China” and that mainland Southeast Asia “will be drawn more into China’s orbit.”

Cambodia is not the only country in the region coming under greater Chinese influence. Thailand and Laos are important links to the Belt and Road Initiative, a major infrastructure project spearheaded by Beijing that will connect China with the rest of Asia, Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

In Laos, China has started construction on a new railroad that will connect the Chinese city Kunming with Vientiane and eventually with Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur and Singapore. China has high expectations for Laos’ development, with Chinese companies flocking to the country, building roads, shopping malls and even an entire satellite city near Vientiane.

“We will see China step up its Belt and Road Initiative in mainland Southeast Asia,” Thayer predicts. “China will fund infrastructure development in Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia. The net effect will be to increase Chinese commercial and political influence in these countries,” he said. 

Beijing’s strategic goals

China’s political influence is apparent in the South China Sea dispute, where several countries are contending with Beijing over the territorial status of waters and islands. Because China has the support of Cambodia, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has failed to create a united stand against Beijing’s position.

Jonathan Spangler, director of the South China Sea Think Tank, told DW that Beijing can influence ASEAN decisions by controlling a few of its members. “This strategy has been particularly effective in relation to South China Sea issues, as ASEAN’s disunity continues to hinder its members from agreeing upon a meaningful plan for dispute management or resolution.”

Diminished US strategic leadership in the region also pushes Mekong states to turn to China, although Carl Thayer has said there are signs that this may change. The US recently announced, as part of its national security policy, that Washington is committed to improve ties with its traditional allies in the region, Thailand and the Philippines, as well as with Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore.

Thayer believes this could have mixed implications for the Mekong countries. “On the plus side, they could benefit from investment in high-quality infrastructure that promotes economic growth,” he said. “On the other hand, the states of the Lower Mekong could become a cockpit where US-China rivalry plays out.”

Pubblicato in: Cina, Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Germania. Ne dispone chi la possiede, e non sono i tedeschi.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-01-28.

Gufo_019__

Germania. Metà Dax-30 è in mano straniera. – Handelsblatt.

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«foreigners now own more than half of the stock in Germany’s top 30 listed companies»

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«foreign investors now own more than half of the stock – 53 percent – in DAX companies»

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«At several of the well-known firms, such as Bayer, Deutsche Börse and Adidas, foreign ownership is well over 70 percent.»

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«The DAX companies that are largely German-owned have not fared so well. They tend to have one large domestic institutional investor; for example, the German government owns 32 percent of Deutsche Telekom and 15 percent of Commerzbank, while the Krupp Foundation has 23 percent of steelmaker ThyssenKrupp»

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«The success of foreign investors comes down to sober calculation and an eye for short-term profit»

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«US asset investment firm Blackrock, which is among the largest in the world, is the biggest investor in German industry. It holds a stake in every DAX company, on average more than 5 percent, sometimes as much as 10 percent. But Blackrock is no activist investor – it buys, sits back and waits for capital appreciation»

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«In 2017, the largest deal in Germany with Chinese participation was the sale of Essen-based energy service provider Ista International to billionaire Li Ka-shing’s Cheung Kong Property Holdings for $6.7 billion, followed by HNA’s investment in Deutsche Bank»

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«Shadowy Chinese conglomerate HNA Group plans to stick with Deutsche Bank, in which it is the largest shareholder»

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«On average last year, the 30 DAX companies generated three-quarters of their revenues overseas. Twenty years ago, it was just 50 percent.»

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«In the mid-1990s, 60 percent of their workforce was in Germany; today, that figure is just 40 percent.»

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Cerchiamo di ragionare.

Si resta stupefatti della soave levità ragionativa di molte persone.

Una cosa è che una società abbia sede legale in Germania ed una totalmente differente è che la proprietà sia tedesca.

Quanti hanno impiegato grandi risorse, duramente guadagnate nell’agone mondiale, per ottenere il controllo di società tedesche non lo hanno certo fatto a maggior gloria della Germania: lo hanno fatto per guadagnare loro e le nazioni dalle quali provengono.

Non solo.

«the 30 DAX companies generated three-quarters of their revenues overseas»

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In altre parole, queste società levano un 75% delle loro entrate all’estero, dalle attività produttive ivi installate. Le società tedesche hanno delocalizzato in modo spietato la propria produzione: ma alla fine comanda la nazione che ha la produzione sul proprio territorio. Per esempio: la Russia può effettivamente chiudere i rubinetti del gas lasciando l’Europa al buio. Sempre che lo voglia e che lo trovi utile: però ne ha piana potestà.

Ma essendo all’estero, fuori dalla Germania, queste attività sono esposte ai capricci dell’alterna sorte. Basta una minima variazione politica ed i guadagni esteri delle società tedesche scompaiono. Svaniscono nel nulla.

Ci si pensi sopra bene, a mente fredda e senza orpelli ideologici.

Quanti ora inneggiano alla Germania ed ad un certo quale modo di gestire l’Unione Europea, in realtà inneggiano ed esaltano i padroni della Germania: proprio quelli che si illudevano di combattere.

Orwell era stato geniale nel descrivere il gregge di pecore belanti a comando.


Handelsblatt. 2018-01-26. China continues German shopping spree

Chinese investors are acquiring German companies in ever-bigger deals as the United States’ protectionist policies deter foreign buyers.

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Although teutonic resistance to Far East takeovers is growing, Chinese buyers have invested a record sum of $13.7 billion (€11 billion) in German companies in 2017. The number of takeovers from China declined by 21 percent to 54 transactions, per a study published Wednesday by consulting firm EY.

Some experts believe that the Chinese shopping spree will continue in 2018. “Despite political opposition, the industrial logic remains intact,” said Alexander Kron, head of transaction advisory services for German-speaking countries at EY, formerly known as Ernst & Young. “This is why we will see more deals in the high triple-digit million range with Chinese participation in Germany and Europe over the next 12 months.”

In 2017, acquisitions across Europe dropped by 20 percent to 247 transactions, a result of protectionist tendencies and stricter conditions imposed by the Beijing government. The volume of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) fell by a third to $57.6 billion.

The long-term outlook for takeovers with Chinese participation remains good, said a lawyer at an international law firm. He also predicted that China will open up further, leading to a more balanced M&A business. According to EY, in addition to China’s traditional industrial investments, future mergers and acquisitions will increasingly focus on fashion/retail, food and pharmaceuticals.

In 2017, the largest deal in Germany with Chinese participation was the sale of Essen-based energy service provider Ista International to billionaire Li Ka-shing’s Cheung Kong Property Holdings for $6.7 billion, followed by HNA’s investment in Deutsche Bank.

Washington’s isolationist policies have significantly stunted the takeover ambitions of Chinese companies in the US domestic market. The transaction value of Chinese acquisitions in the United States fell drastically in 2017 to about $10 billion, compared with a record more than $50 billion in 2016, according to Thomson Reuters. Antitrust and foreign trade investigations are increasingly throwing up obstacles. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States is “more active than ever before,” said Rod Hunter of the Baker McKenzie law firm.


Handelsblatt. 2017-12-27. Chinese firm backs Deutsche Bank management

The Austrian manager who represents HNA on Deutsche Bank’s board says the Chinese support CEO John Cryan’s turnaround plan.

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Shadowy Chinese conglomerate HNA Group plans to stick with Deutsche Bank, in which it is the largest shareholder. The group also considers John Cryan an able CEO and believes that the bank is on the right track with its restructuring plan, according to the Austrian manager who represents HNA on the bank’s board of directors.

“Deutsche Bank is a core investment for HNA and our participation has a high prestige factor,” said Alexander Schütz, the founder of Austrian asset management firm C-Quadrat, which is majority owned by HNA. “Deutsche Bank is very popular in Asia. We are assuming that HNA will stick with this commitment in the long term.”

Mr. Schütz dismissed reports of bad blood between Mr. Cryan and HNA’s CEO Adam Tan. According to news reports, Mr. Cryan had resisted meeting Mr. Tan, but the two men finally caught up with one another in early November.

“We believe in the success of Deutsche Bank,” Mr. Schütz told Handelsblatt. “The bank had to clean up some bad debts. The CEO, John Cryan, did that very well.” He added that Mr. Cryan is “a very intelligent manager who is just the man for this moment in the bank’s business.”

HNA’s complex ownership has caused concern from some regulators, such as in New Zealand, where the Overseas Investment Office has blocked HNA’s acquisition of UDC, the country’s largest non-bank lender, because of what it called uncertainty about HNA’s ownership structure.

But Mr. Schütz said that his firm had submitted documentation to the Austrian financial regulator over HNA’s purchase of a majority stake in C-Quadrat and that it had reached a different conclusion than the New Zealand authorities.

“We are confident that we know all the people involved in HNA and we have always had an open and friendly relationship with them,” he said.

HNA is a hotels and casino firm as well as an airline. It has borrowed nearly €50 billion to finance overseas acquisitions over the last year, but Mr. Tan said the company may sell off some non-core holdings to meet Chinese government demands for a reduction in overseas investment.

Bloomberg has reported that the German financial regulator BaFin is also conducting an inquiry to determine if HNA accurately reported its share purchases in Deutsche Bank, Germany’s largest lender, when it began building its stake during a capital increase last April.

Mr. Schütz told Handelsblatt that HNA had always planned to be a long-term shareholder in Deutsche Bank despite its use of short-term derivatives as part of its financing of the share purchase. “This misunderstanding stems from the fact that the first derivative structure only lasted for a year,” he said. “The new structure has a three-year term, which shows that HNA is oriented to the long-term and has no interest in selling.

He said that HNA was using derivatives because they secure HNA against large losses and the firm makes profits when the bank’s shares increase in value. Also, he said refinancing costs are lower using derivatives than buying the shares outright.

He also said that HNA welcomed the decision of US buyout fund Cerberus to take a 3-percent stake in Deutsche Bank last month.


Handelsblatt. 2017-10-13. The DAX’s Foreign Invasion

New research shows that foreigners now own more than half of the stock in Germany’s top 30 listed companies. And it seems that the greater the foreign-ownership, the better the performance.

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Yesterday, Germany’s blue-chip DAX stock market index hit 13,000 points for the first time in its 30-year history. And while that’s great news for the German managers of the 30 big firms that make up the DAX, it’s even better news for their largely foreign owners.

Research by Handelsblatt suggests that foreign investors now own more than half of the stock – 53 percent – in DAX companies. At several of the well-known firms, such as Bayer, Deutsche Börse and Adidas, foreign ownership is well over 70 percent.

In terms of sales, revenue, profits and employment, today’s top German companies are highly globalized. In the last 25 years, firms like BMW, Siemens and Bayer have relentlessly looked outward in search of fast-growing markets and high-value inputs. This has yielded a steady increase in profit margins, which in turn has drawn the attention of overseas investors. German investors, on the other hand, have always been very reluctant to put their money on the stock market.

In terms of return, overseas investors have gained enormously on the back of DAX companies. Infineon, the Munich-based semi-conductor maker, is a good example. It has one of the highest concentrations of foreign investors, at more than 85 percent; not coincidentally, its market performance has been stellar, with its stock increasing 5,000 percent in the past eight years. If you had bought €10,000 ($11,800) in Infineon stock in 2009, you would now be sitting on half a million euros. Likewise, Adidas, which is 80 percent foreign-owned, has tripled its stock price in just two years.

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The major exception to the trend is among management: here, Germans still predominate.

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The DAX companies that are largely German-owned have not fared so well. They tend to have one large domestic institutional investor; for example, the German government owns 32 percent of Deutsche Telekom and 15 percent of Commerzbank, while the Krupp Foundation has 23 percent of steelmaker ThyssenKrupp. But these stocks are all among the worst-performing German equities of the last decade. Not long ago, a Telekom share sold for €100: today it can be yours for just €15.50.

The success of foreign investors comes down to sober calculation and an eye for short-term profit. They exhibit little of the investor loyalty which was once the hallmark of German business. It is hard to imagine the Krupp Foundation ever selling its stake in ThyssenKrupp, but when the Abu Dhabi state investment fund ploughed €2 billion into carmaker Daimler in 2009 saying it was investing for decades to come, it was really in it for the short-term. And with brilliant success: the fund sold its stake three years later, doubling its initial investment.

US asset investment firm Blackrock, which is among the largest in the world, is the biggest investor in German industry. It holds a stake in every DAX company, on average more than 5 percent, sometimes as much as 10 percent. But Blackrock is no activist investor – it buys, sits back and waits for capital appreciation. If there’s no growth, it reduces its position.

German business has rapidly internationalized in other areas too. On average last year, the 30 DAX companies generated three-quarters of their revenues overseas. Twenty years ago, it was just 50 percent. In the mid-1990s, 60 percent of their workforce was in Germany; today, that figure is just 40 percent.

The major exception to the trend is among management: here, Germans still predominate. According to figures from consultants EY, two-thirds of the most senior 200 executives are German nationals.

Paradoxically, Infineon, the most foreign-owned DAX company, has no non-German executives. Other companies without a single foreign manager include energy giants E.ON and RWE, as well as Commerzbank, the country’s second-largest bank, and real estate behemoth Vonovia. The most globalized management teams can be found at Adidas, Deutsche Bank, Volkswagen, Linde, the personal care conglomerate Beiersdorf, as well as healthcare company Fresenius.

Just six percent of non-executive board members are American, even though 25 percent of the revenues of large German firms comes from the US, and 20 percent of their shares are held by American shareholders. It is a similar story with Asia: just one director, out of 261 in total, comes from Asia, although top German firms raise 17 percent of their revenues in Asia.

This seems likely to change. “The internationalization of senior management and supervisory boards is simply a logical part of globalization,” said Alexander Bassen, professor of finance at Hamburg University.

It is hard to concretely prove that companies actually do better with more foreign managers and directors. “Of course a higher proportion of foreigners on the board is not a yardstick for quality,” said Mathieu Meyer, a managing partner at EY. But by globalizing much more slowly in this than in other areas of their business, German companies may be losing out on expertise.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Unione Europea

Germania. Sarebbero necessari maggiori investimenti. – Weidmann Vs Trump

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-01-28.

Bundesbank 010

«Few countries attract as much disdain from economists as Germany»

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«Berlin is accused of running an excessively prudent budget»

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«German companies of paying their workers too little»

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«The problem is that Germany needs to make up now for what it failed to do in the past»

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«Wages must not only increase, but compensate for years of excessive moderation»

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«Germany’s current account surplus stood at nearly 8 percent of gross domestic product last year. According to the IMF, this is nearly 4.5 percentage points higher than it should be. Roughly a third of this excessive external surplus is the result of overly tight fiscal policy»

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«Roughly a third of this excessive external surplus is the result of overly tight fiscal policy.»

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«these extra savings end up funding projects abroad. This carries some risk since in case of a default abroad (private or sovereign) the money would be lost»

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«A positive output gap does not signal a need for an expansive fiscal policy stance»

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«Germany has accumulated a large investment gap, both private and public»

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«Public investment, while stable, remains at a meager 2 percent of GDP »

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«As noted by Wolff, gross fixed capital formation (the net increase in physical assets) in the manufacturing sector is now lower than in Italy»

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Herr Weidmann lo ha detto nel suo linguaggio cui non tutti sono adsueti:

«A positive output gap does not signal a need for an expansive fiscal policy stance»

Herr Wolff lo ha detto chiaro e tondo in un linguaggio da economisti:

«gross fixed capital formation in the manufacturing sector is now lower than in Italy»

Per dirla papale e papale, in Germania si sta investendo troppo poco nella produzione.

Ma ci sarà bene un motivo se non si investe nella produzione.


La risposta arriva semplicissima dal Forum di Davos.

A Davos Mr Trump ha incontrato gli amministratori di società di interesse mondiale.

«Before diving into a steak dinner at the World Economic Forum as the guests of the US president, leaders of major European corporations went around the table and praised their host’s pro-business tax reform»

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«The comments from Trump’s dinner guests, including the heads of German companies such as sports behemoth Adidas, telecommunications giant Siemens and pharmaceutical producer Bayer, contrasted with the prior remarks of world politicians who expressed concern about Trump’s “America first” protectionist policies»

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«Siemens president, Joe Kaiser, congratulated Trump on his tax reform and cited the legislation as the reason the company chose to develop gas turbines in the US»

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«Patrick Pouyanne, chairman and CEO of Total, a French energy producer and one of the world’s largest oil companies, also announced his intention to “do more” in the US thanks to the tax cuts»

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«The Norwegian energy company Statoil also expressed its gratitude to Trump, citing the $2.5 billion (€2 billion) it pumps into the US economy every year»

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«Statoil’s head Eldar Saetra also praised Trump’s broader economic de-regulation efforts, calling them “good news,”»

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Gli amministratori delegati lo hanno ammesso francamente, non lo hanno negato, ed hanno quindi ammesso che avrebbero trasferito molto del loro lavoro negli Stati Uniti a causa della sua riforma fiscale.

Siemens, Total, Statoil, solo per fare qualche nome, trasferiranno parte delle loro attività negli Stati Uniti.

Con questa cena Mr Trump si è portato a casa seicento miliardi di dollari di investimenti.

Se comprendiamo le argomentazioni di Herr Weidmann, nel contempo constatiamo come sia compito dei politici preparare le condizioni che invoglino agli investimenti.

Con la riduzione delle tasse negli Usa, Mr Trump si è preso a Davos seicento miliardi che avrebbero potuto essere investiti in Germania.

Frau Merkel ed Herr Schulz ci staranno pensando?


Bloomberg. 2018-01-23. Germany’s Economy Needs More Investment

Despite a boom, more spending would make up for years of wage restraint.

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Few countries attract as much disdain from economists as Germany. Berlin is accused of running an excessively prudent budget and German companies of paying their workers too little: This stinginess — so the accusation goes — has contributed to global instability by making it harder for Germany’s euro-zone partners to climb their way out of the crisis.

The criticisms, which go back about a decade, seem harder to sustain now: German wages are rising again, and while the government is running a surplus, it is more difficult to make the case for greater spending during an economic expansion. The problem is that Germany needs to make up now for what it failed to do in the past: Wages must not only increase, but compensate for years of excessive moderation.

This sizable gap in public and private investment needs to be filled, a worthy focus for the new coalition government. A boost in German consumption and investment would create some additional demand for Germany’s euro-zone partners. Greater investment in companies or infrastructure would also lift German productivity, which has been far from impressive over the past decade.

The great debate over German economic policymaking was held at a conference in Frankfurt last week, jointly run by the International Monetary Fund and the Bundesbank. The case for a change of paradigm in Berlin was eloquently made by Maurice Obstfeld, the IMF’s chief economist, who — alongside his predecessor Olivier Blanchard — has long argued that Germany should reduce its external surplus to improve financial stability.

Germany’s current account surplus stood at nearly 8 percent of gross domestic product last year. According to the IMF, this is nearly 4.5 percentage points higher than it should be. Roughly a third of this excessive external surplus is the result of overly tight fiscal policy.

Obstfeld pointed out that, at the moment, these extra savings end up funding projects abroad. This carries some risk since in case of a default abroad (private or sovereign) the money would be lost. Conversely, Germany could reap high returns by investing in infrastructure at home. And since most of the savings come from the corporate sector, encouraging companies to invest could also lower inequality.

The problem with the IMF analysis is its timing rather than its substance. Few have doubts that Germany’s surplus is truly extraordinary: As Guntram Wolff, the director of the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel, noted, if one looks at all countries in the world over the last two decades, there’s only a handful of examples of countries that are not commodity producers that ran a current account surplus at nearly 8 percent of GDP, for three consecutive years. But it is much harder to make the case for greater government spending now that the euro-zone economy is booming. As Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann noted, an economy going at full steam does not generally require an injection of more spending. (Of course, he put it more technically: “A positive output gap does not signal a need for an expansive fiscal policy stance.”)

As for wages, even Peter Bofinger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts and a long-running advocate of higher pay in Germany, admits that these are now rising. Between 2012 and 2017, compensation per employee in Germany rose on average by more than 2 percent a year. This was more than any other country from the G-7 and in line with the inflation target of the European Central Bank. “We cannot say there is a fundamental problem with wages in Germany,” he conceded.

Still, the problems of the past do not simply disappear; it will be up to Germany’s new coalition government to find ways to deal with them. As Jens Suedekum, a professor at Heinrich Heine University, noted, Germany’s wage moderation led to a grossly undervalued real exchange rate in the early years of the euro zone, which artificially boosted exports. Germany’s stronger wage growth since the crisis has not been sufficient to make up for the gap in competitiveness that has accumulated since.

Meanwhile, Germany has accumulated a large investment gap, both private and public: Public investment, while stable, remains at a meager 2 percent of GDP. As noted by Wolff, gross fixed capital formation (the net increase in physical assets) in the manufacturing sector is now lower than in Italy.

Had Germany addressed these problems earlier, it would be in the position to ignore them today. But Germany’s past restraint means the case for a demand boost remains compelling. That is likely to be music to the ears of the Social Democrats, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition partner, though there is a risk that they will prefer giveaways to investment. Higher wages and greater investment spending would also make it easier for the ECB to reach its target of just below 2 percent and bring to an end its unorthodox monetary policy measures. Surely even the most conservative in Germany would agree this is a good thing.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Unione Europea

Paesi dell’est e crisi politico ed economica europea.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-01-22.

Europa 002

L’Occidente sta attraversando una crisi politica ed identitaria di entità tale da non trovare riscontro nella storia dei decenni recenti: si dovrebbe risalire agli anni venti del secolo scorso per trovare una situazione ragionevolmente analoga.

Negli Stati Uniti il passaggio da un’amministrazione democratica a quella repubblicana appare essere quanto mai sofferto.

In Europa grandi stati quali la Spagna, l’Olanda, la Germania e, forse, tra poco anche l’Italia, si trovano nella condizione di avere governi minoritari, instabili, frutto più di necessaria convivenza che di chiaro indirizzo politico condiviso.

In questo ambito, anche i paesi dell’est europeo stanno passando i loro triboli.

Ma ai turmoil politici corrispondono ovviamente altrettante turbolenze economiche.

«In many investors’ eyes, political events in central and eastern Europe fall into the usual political noise category, while changes in larger emerging markets can mean a watershed moment for the economy, …. Investors may see the European Union as the ultimate backstop to negative political developments.»

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«For long-term investors, broader developments in economical, political and social areas are more important …. Financial market participants have strong confidence in the long-term political agenda of CEE, as it’s still better-established and more diversified than many other emerging-market regions.»

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«Political risk is alive and kicking in eastern Europe, but investors couldn’t care less»

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«The region’s currencies and bonds continue to outperform peers, helped by the European Central Bank’s asset purchases in the euro area and the fastest economic growth in six years»

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«Eastern European economies probably grew by 3.7 percent last year, the fastest pace since 2011»

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Problema davvero complesso, senza soluzione unica.

Né si sottovaluti la crisi demografica. Sarebbe impossibile progettare impianti industriali che richiedano mano d’opera numerosa in paesi che si stanno spopolando. I dati demografici sono un freno totale ai progetti industriali di lungo termine.

Germania. Metà Dax-30 è in mano straniera. – Handelsblatt.

Germania. La demografia che stritola. Mancano tre milioni di lavoratori. – Vbw.

Germania. Realtà geografica, non più umana, politica ed economica.

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Da un punto di vista pratico potrebbe essere utile distinguere abbastanza nettamente due differenti tipologie di investimenti.

Gli investimenti di medio termine sono al momento vivibili in termini ambivalenti. Da una parte si constata quanto possano essere remunerativi, dall’altra ci si rende conto di quanto la instabilità politica possa generare bruschi cambiamenti del contesto operativo. Sta quindi all’operatore la valutazione del rapporto prestazioni / costi e dei relativi rischi connessi.

Gli investimenti sul lungo termine sono invece al momento poco turbati da tutti questi sobbollimenti. La opinione diffusa è che in una qualche maniera proprietà e redditività saranno tutelate in modo ragionevole.

Ma alla ragionevolezza delle previsioni dovrebbe sempre far riscontro l’uso di una sana prudenza.


Bloomberg. 2018-01-18. Investors Are Ignoring Big Risk Signals in Eastern Europe

– Traders look past politics in Poland, Czech Republic, Romania

– ECB stimulus, growth have helped countries outperform peers

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Political risk is alive and kicking in eastern Europe, but investors couldn’t care less.

Currencies from the zloty to the koruna and the forint are all strengthening, ignoring political risk and turmoil. Poland is being threatened by unprecedented political and possibly economic sanctions by the European Union for eroding the rule of law, while the Czech Republic’s billionaire leader has failed to form a majority government and Romania’s ruling party just ousted its third prime minister in about a year.

The region’s currencies and bonds continue to outperform peers, helped by the European Central Bank’s asset purchases in the euro area and the fastest economic growth in six years. Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary boast the best-performing emerging-market currencies since the beginning of 2017, while volatility is waning. Their stock indexes have also hit multi-year highs in the last 12 months.

“There’s still ample global liquidity and search for yields,” said Viktor Szabo, a money manager who helps oversee $15 billion in emerging-market debt at Aberdeen Standard Investments in London. “External demand from the EU is strong, EU flows are coming in, domestic consumption is strong across the board, inflation is not a major problem, at least in central banks’ view. What’s not to like? The music is on, so investors have to dance.”

Eastern European economies probably grew by 3.7 percent last year, the fastest pace since 2011, according to a weighted average of country forecasts in a Bloomberg survey. That growth has been helped by investments funded by billions of euros in development aid from the EU, which most regional countries joined in the previous decade.

Policy Support

While it spars with Brussels, Poland’s governing Law and Justice party looked to appeal to investors when it last month appointed former Economy Minister and bank chief Mateusz Morawiecki as premier. Hungary’s cabinet is feuding with billionaire financier George Soros as it ramps up an anti-immigrant campaign heading into elections in April, with Prime Minister Viktor Orban holding a firm lead in polls. In Bulgaria, which this month took over the EU’s rotating six-month presidency, Prime Minister Boyko Borissov is facing a no-confidence motion that has almost no chance of passing but could be a source of humiliation.

“In many investors’ eyes, political events in central and eastern Europe fall into the usual political noise category, while changes in larger emerging markets can mean a watershed moment for the economy,” said Magdalena Polan, a global emerging-market economist at Legal & General Group Plc in London. “Investors may see the European Union as the ultimate backstop to negative political developments.”

Central banks have also been supportive of assets. The Czech Republic was one of the first to tighten policy in Europe to curb accelerating inflation on the back of rising consumption and wages. The region’s local-currency bonds outperformed the 11 percent return on an index of emerging-market notes.

Polish policy makers have kept interest rates on hold for almost three years, while Hungary’s record current-account surplus has allowed investors to see bond gains without suffering from currency depreciation, as the central bank pushes ahead with unconventional easing. That contrasts with the situation further east in Turkey, which has been forced to tighten policy to counter a lira being sold off on political risk and a deteriorating current account.

“For long-term investors, broader developments in economical, political and social areas are more important,” said Jetro Siekkinen, who helps oversee $2.5 billion in emerging-market debt as head of portfolio management at Aktia Asset Management in Helsinki. “Financial market participants have strong confidence in the long-term political agenda of CEE, as it’s still better-established and more diversified than many other emerging-market regions.”

Pubblicato in: Cina, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Geopolitica Africa

Cobalto. Il Congo triplica le tasse e ci guadagna la Cina.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-01-16.

2018-01-11__Congo__

«Il cobalto è l’elemento chimico di numero atomico 27. Il suo simbolo è Co.

Il nome deriva probabilmente dal greco kobalos, traducibile con folletto (ma vedi anche coboldo), “kobolt” in tedesco, probabilmente dato ai minatori tedeschi che incolpavano i folletti di fargli trovare un metallo inutile anziché il desiderato oro. ….

Il cobalto non si trova allo stato puro metallico, ma solo come minerale, e non viene estratto da solo ma come sottoprodotto della estrazione di rame o nichel. I più importanti minerali di cobalto sono la Heterogenite, la cobaltite, l’eritrite, il glaucodoto e la skutterudite. I maggiori produttori al mondo di cobalto sono la Repubblica Democratica del Congo, la Cina, lo Zambia, la Russia e l’Australia.» [Fonte]

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«The main ores of cobalt are cobaltite, erythrite, glaucodot and skutterudite (see above), but most cobalt is obtained by reducing the cobalt by-products of nickel and copper mining and smelting.

In 2005, the top producer of cobalt were the copper deposits in the Katanga Province (former Shaba province) of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) with almost 40% world share, reports the British Geological Survey. By 2015, DRC supplied 60% of the world production of 32,000 tons at prices of $20,000 to $26,000 per ton, including artisanal mining which supplied 10% to 25%. The political situation in Congo influences the price of cobalt significantly.

The Mukondo Mountain project, operated by the Central African Mining and Exploration Company (CAMEC) in Katanga, may be the richest cobalt reserve in the world. It was estimated to be producing one third of total global production of cobalt in 2008. In July 2009, CAMEC announced a long-term agreement to deliver its entire annual production of cobalt concentrate from Mukondo Mountain to Zhejiang Galico Cobalt & Nickel Materials of China.» [Fonte]

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Questo è il profilo che Bloomberg fornisce per la Zhejiang Galico Cobalt & Nickel Materials.

«Zhejiang Galico Cobalt & Nickel Material Co.,Ltd. is engaged in the research and manufacture of cobalt, nickel, and copper compounds for customers in China and internationally. It offers cobalt chloride, cobalt oxalate, cobalt sulfate, copper sulfate, cobalt hydroxide, cobalt tetroxide, cobalt oxide, cobalt carbonate, copper cathode, cobalt caprate, cobalt boroacylate, cobalt powder, nickel oxide, nickel sulfate, copper sulfate, and copper electrode; and their extended products. Its products are mainly used in battery material, hard alloy, electric plating, ceramic glaze, industrial catalyst, and powder metallurgy. It also provides technical support services. The company was founded in 2004 and is based in Shangyu, China. As of February 28, 2007, Zhejiang Galico Cobalt & Nickel Material Co.,Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of ENRC Africa Holdings Limited. As of December 19, 2016, Zhejiang Galico Cobalt & Nickel Material Co.,Ltd operates as a subsidiary of China Greatpower Jinchuan.»

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«Founded in December 2016, China Greatpower Jinchuan is a joint venture between Shanghai Greatpower, Jinchuan Group and an undisclosed new energy industry fund, with Shanghai Greatpower as the majority stakeholder. The Shanghai-headquartered joint venture purchased assets belonging to former Chinese cobalt salt producer Zhejiang Galico Cobalt & Nickel Material at a public auction in December 2016 and plans to invest $150 million into the idled operations. Before halting production, the former Galico plant had an annual capacity of 4,500 tonnes of cobalt contained in cobalt salts and 2,000 tonnes of nickel contained in nickel salts, with products ranging from cobalt sulfate, cobalt chloride and nickel sulfate. The company expects to reach full production capacity for cobalt salts in August and will begin producing nickel sulfate» [Metal Bulletin]

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«Founded in 2016, China Greatpower Jinchuan Advanced Battery Materials Corp.(GPJC)is a leading producer of core materials for global lithium battery industry. Located in National Economic and Technological Development Zone near Hangzhou Bay in Shaoxing City of Zhejiang Province,the company covers 120000㎡of land area and 70000㎡of building area including a large-scale production site.

 GPJC is a joint venture between Shanghai Greatpower, Jinchuan Group and an undisclosed new energy industry fund, with Shanghai Greatpower holding the majority stake, successfully purchasing assets belonging to former Zhejiang Galico Cobalt & Nickel Material Co.,Ltd in December 2016. GPJC aims to be the key supplier of core materials across the whole supply chain for global lithium battery material. For the commissioning of first-stage production, GPJC has invested over 200 million RMB to produce battery materials including cobalt, nickel and lithium with a new capacity of 30,000 mtpa on board by 2017. GPJC has both the expertise in sourcing and marketing battery materials with long-term strategic partnerships in the upstream sector and also the cutting-edge technology of producing and processing battery materials in the downstream sector, the combination of which will maximise its competitive advantage and show its uniqueness under ever-changing market conditions.

With Shanghai Greatpower holding the majority stake, GPJC is a national high-tech enterprise specialized in developing, manufacturing and selling high performance power battery material(lithium-ion battery and energy storage battery), which is jointly invested by Jinchuan Group and Beijing Daseng International Investment. GPJC aims to be the core supplier in key material of the power battery industry chain in Chinese and even global market.

In order to set up the double advantage of resource control and material technology, our company have arranged effective layout on the upstream resources of lithium battery materials and established the supply chain of lithium and cobalt resources all over the world in a simultaneous way, thus completely possessing the service ability for new energy industry.» [Greatpower J]

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Cerchiamo di sintetizzare, al costo di essere anche molto riduttivi.

– Larga parte del cobalto è estratto nella Provincia del Katanga (ex Shaba) della Repubblica Democratica del Congo, che fornisce il 50% di tutta la produzione mondiale.

– L’estratto minerario è inidoneo all’impiego industriale diretto, e deve essere trattato, almeno a solfato di cobalto.

– L’aumento delle tasse di estrazione resterà trasparente alla Cina, che lo scaricherà sugli acquirenti, mentre gioverà al Congo, che ha un disperato bisogno di infrastrutture.

– A partire dal 2009 l’intera produzione estrattiva della Mukondo Mountain è esportata in toto in Cina, alla  Zhejiang Galico Cobalt & Nickel Materials, di proprietà Shanghai Greatpower, che la manipola ottenendo la quasi totalità del solfato di cobalto disponibile sui mercati.

– I mercati mondiali dipendono anche in questo settore dal virtuale monopolio cinese, che lo coordina tramite la Zhejiang Galico Cobalt & Nickel Materials con la produzione di altre molecole indispensabili per l’industria globale.

– In ultima analisi, il governo cinese modula tutto il mercato del solfato di cobalto e, di conseguenza, quello delle batterie e di molti componenti elettronici e metallurgici.

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Si voglia o meno, piaccia o meno, la Cina ha un governo di persone capaci, ben selezionate e che governano e sanno governare.

La sua organizzazione politica è in grado di tessere piani strategici di lungo termine, e lo fa con accortezza.

L’Occidente avrebbe molte cose da imparare.


Metalli Rari. 2017-12-12. Il cobalto andrà forte anche nel 2018?

«Le aspettative per il cobalto, durante l’anno che sta per finire, sono sempre state brillanti.

Il metallo chiave per la produzione delle batterie al litio, utilizzate anche per alimentare i veicoli elettrici (EV), è stato uno dei protagonisti del 2017. I prezzi al London Metal Exchange (LME) sono cresciuti di oltre il 120% da inizio anno e i titoli azionari delle società del settore hanno registrato guadagni del 100%.

Il trend al rialzo dei prezzi dura ormai da inizio anno, grazie alle prospettive di una forte domanda proveniente dal settore EV e alle preoccupazioni che non ci sia abbastanza cobalto. Nei primi giorni del 2017 i prezzi erano di 32.500 dollari, mentre a inizio dicembre hanno raggiunto i 75.000 dollari a tonnellata, il punto più alto dell’anno.

Probabilmente, a spingere i prezzi così in alto non è stata soltanto la domanda, ma anche la speculazione. Agli investitori è sempre più chiaro che la scommessa a lungo termine sullo sviluppo del mercato della mobilità elettrica è vincente.

Molti fondi istituzionali hanno studiato a lungo la catena delle forniture del cobalto, per coglierne tutte le opportunità. Si sono resi conto che le batterie al litio non contengono il metallo quotato al LME, quanto piuttosto solfato di cobalto. Tuttavia, il fatto che il cobalto sotto forma metallica sia quotato in un mercato regolamentato come l’LME, aggiunge una maggiore trasparenza sull’andamento dei prezzi dal momento che le diverse forme di cobalto sono intrinsecamente legate (ma il solfato di cobalto costa molto di più).

Per chi non lo sapesse, l’80% della produzione mondiale di prodotti chimici a base di cobalto, come il solfato, vengono prodotti dalla Cina, che importa la materia prima necessaria dalla Repubblica Democratica del Congo (RDC), un paese ad altissima instabilità politica.

Ma cosa succederà nel 2018?

Innanzitutto, l’aumento della domanda è destinato a continuare. Domanda crescente e scarsità di offerta porteranno ancora ad una crescita dei prezzi, spinti soprattutto dal settore EV. In questo contesto, giocherà un ruolo sempre più importante la Repubblica Democratica del Congo che, attualmente, fornisce il 50% di tutta la produzione mondiale. Di conseguenza, i grossi problemi di questo paese, instabilità politica ed estrazione del minerale ottenuta sfruttando il lavoro minorile, si ripercuoteranno sui prezzi del cobalto.»


Bloomberg. 2018-01-10. Congo May More Than Double Tax on Critical Global Cobalt Supply

– Mining code to increase royalty taxes on ‘strategic’ materials

– Legislation awaiting Senate approval to be signed into law

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The Democratic Republic of Congo is preparing to more than double a tax on two-thirds of global cobalt supply, potentially increasing the cost of the critical battery metal just as the world begins to embrace electric vehicles.

Congo, the world’s biggest cobalt producer, will increase the royalty miners pay on exports of the metal to 5 percent from 2 percent if it opts to categorize cobalt as a “strategic substance,” Mines Minister Martin Kabwelulu told the country’s Senate last week.

The new classification is part of an overhaul of mining legislation that is fiercely opposed by the industry, which says the law may deter future investment. Under the revised code, backed by the government and being scrutinized by parliament, the tax on base metals including copper and cobalt will increase to 3.5 percent from 2 percent. If approved by the Senate, the law will also allow the state to select “strategic” metals, likely to include cobalt, and tax them at a higher rate of 5 percent, Kabwelulu said.

A byproduct of copper and nickel mining used to harden steel, cobalt stepped into the global spotlight last year as prices surged. The metal’s efficiency in conducting electricity has made it essential for rechargeable batteries used in electric cars produced by companies including Tesla Inc. and Volkswagen AG.

Prices Triple

Plans to dramatically increase the production of electric vehicles resulted in the price of the metal more than tripling in the past two years as miners and automakers scrambled to secure supply. The boom hasn’t gone unnoticed in Congo, whose mines supply about two-thirds of global output.

The new legislation will guarantee Congo “the flexibility to face unforeseen developments in the international market if the international economic situation demands it” by permitting the government to declare certain minerals “strategic substances,” Kabwelulu told senators Jan. 5, according to a transcript of his remarks.

The minister singled out cobalt’s “not only strategic but also critical character” on the world market. Tantalum, a scarce mineral extracted from so-called coltan ore and used in smartphones, could also be taxed at the higher rate, Kabwelulu said.

The current mining law, which was promoted by the World Bank and adopted in 2002, attracted billions of dollars of investment from mining companies including Glencore Plc and Randgold Resources Ltd. While the economy has grown, the government says the mining industry hasn’t generated sufficient revenue for the state.

Windfall Tax

“If cobalt is declared strategic one day, naturally the royalty will climb to 5 percent,” Kabwelulu’s chief of staff, Valery Mukasa, said by phone Tuesday. “We haven’t said cobalt will be a strategic substance. We said cobalt can be,” he said, adding there are “considerations that need to be assessed from a technical point of view and in terms of the international market.”

In addition to the new royalty tax on strategic minerals, the draft law also:

– Increases royalties on gold from 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent;

– Introduces a profit-windfall tax;

– Doubles the state’s free share to 10 percent; and,

– Reduces the period during which contract stability is guaranteed to five years from 10 years.

Stability Clauses

While existing stability clauses mean companies with valid mining contracts, like Glencore and Randgold, won’t have to comply with most reforms for 10 years, the increased royalty rates will be applied to all projects immediately, Kabwelulu told senators on Jan. 2.

The royalty hike may have the biggest impact on Glencore, the country’s largest producer of both copper and cobalt. The company shipped about 213,000 metric tons of copper and 24,500 tons of cobalt from its Mutanda mine last year. That could rise to more than 500,000 tons of copper and more than 65,000 tons of cobalt by 2019 once production at its suspended Katanga Mining operation reaches full capacity.

The draft law was adopted by the National Assembly on Dec. 8 and is being examined by the Senate in an extraordinary session that started Jan. 2. If approved by the Upper House, it will be sent to President Joseph Kabila to sign into law.