Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Problemia Energetici, Unione Europea

Nordrhein-Westfalen presenta un conto da 11.5 miliardi per il carbone.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-01-19.

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Il Nordrhein-Westfalen è uno dei Land tedeschi che meglio evidenzia quanto il quadro politico sia evoluto nel tempo.

Nelle elezioni del 18 settembre 2005 la Cdu ottenne il 34.4%, la Spd il 40.0% ed i Grüne il 10.0% dei voti.

Nelle elezioni del 22 settembre 2009 la Cdu ottenne il 33.1%, la Spd il 28.5% ed i Grüne il 14.9%dei voti validi.

Nelle elezioni del 24 settembre 2017 la Cdu ottenne il 32.6%, la Spd il 26.0% ed i Grüne il 13.1%dei voti validi.

Secondo le più recenti propensioni al voto la Cdu si attesterebbe al 34%, la Spd al 21%, ed i Grüne all’11%. AfD varrebbe il 9%.

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L’elemento che salta agli occhi immediatamente è sia la sostanziale tenuta della Cdu e dei Grüne, sia il crollo della Spd.

Se è vero che a livello mondiale è in corso la devoluzione dell’ideologia liberal socialista, sarebbe anche vero il dover constatare la deindustrializzazione lenta ma costante e significativa di questo bacino economico. In altri termini, il declino della Spd in questa zone avrebbe due sostanziosi moventi, simultanei e sinergici.

L’industria pesante ha progressivamente lasciato questo enclave produttivo, sia delocalizzando le produzioni sia essendo stato acquisito da capitali stranieri interessati più al know-how che a mantener viva la produzione tedesca: nel converso non è stato possibile impiantare una qualche forma di nuova industria.

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L’attuale governo federale proprio non ha feeling con l’industria, che guarda financo con sospetto: è estasiato dalle nuove tecnologie al punto tale dal crederle già disponibili e non solo future. Le suppone anche economicamente gratificanti.

Di questi giorni Eurostat ha cacciato benzina sul fuoco rendendo pubblici i dati sulla produzione industriale.

«In November 2018 compared with November 2017, industrial production fell by 3.3% in the euro area and by 2.2% in the EU28 …. Among Member States for which data are available, the largest decreases in industrial production were observed in Ireland (-9.1%), Germany (-5.1%)»

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La Germania è in crisi o, più verosimilmente, in recessione.

I periodi della vacche grasse sembrerebbero essere terminati.

Prendiamo atto come proprio in un momento così delicato il Governo tedesco intenda abbandonare il carbone quale combustibile per alimentare le centrali elettriche. Se è vero che ognuno sia libero di fare ciò che vuole, sarebbe anche vero il ricordare come lo stato di salute dell’economia tedesca sia strettamente legato a quello dell’Europa e, quindi, anche dell’Italia.

I tedeschi hanno una grande abbondanza di carbone, ancorché buon quota sia costituita dalla lignite. Sarebbero da questo punto di vista autosufficienti energeticamente.

Abbandonare l’uso del carbone implica necessariamente la sostituzione con un qualche altro tipo di combustibile, che necessariamente dovrebbe essere importato.

Non a caso la Cina ha dichiarato di voler incrementare del 25% la quota di corrente elettrica prodotta bruciando carbone: è più economico di altri fonti energetiche.

Carbone. Consumi mondiali. I numeri parlano chiaro. La Cina.

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Il Land Nordrhein-Westfalen è uno dei grandi produttori tedeschi di lignite: la chiusura di questa industria estrattiva comporterebbe un gran danno per il sistema economico di questa enclave: il governo statale reclamerebbe quindi almeno 11.5 miliardi di Usd quali refusione alla chiusura coatta degli impianti, in ossequio al ‘clima’.

Il Governo federale pagherebbe così tre volte la bolletta energetica: il costo dei combustibili acquistati all’estero, i rimborsi di mancato guadagno in patria, i costi di impianto ed esercizio delle nuove centrali non a carbone.

Non solo.

Anche i Länder della Germania dell’est sono grandi estrattori di carbone: se refusione alla chiusura fosse dovuta al Land Nordrhein-Westfalen, anche i Länder orientale dovrebbero essere rimborsati.

Di rimborsi si potrebbe arrivare a delle cifre da capogiro: tra i trenta ed i quaranta miliardi di euro.

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Stare alla moda ha un costo, come sanno bene tutte le giovin signore in tiro.

Ma ha un suo costo anche il voler seguire la moda di cambiar tipo di centrale elettrica al mutare dell’ideologia dominante.

Nota Importante.

«Supported by Germany and the EU».

In parole povere, l’Unione Europea, Italia compresa, dovrebbe assecondare i capricci di Frau Merkel, mettendo mano al portafoglio.


Reuters. 2019-01-15. Germany’s biggest state wants at least $11.5 billion for exiting coal

Duesseldorf (Reuters) – North Rhine-Westphalia, one of Germany’s coal-mining states, is demanding at least 10 billion euros ($11.5 billion) in structural support if coal-fired power stations are phased out, its economy minister said.

Germany is hammering out plans for how to abandon polluting coal stations in favor of renewables, which accounted for more than 40 percent of the energy mix last year, beating coal for the first time.

The German cabinet has appointed a coal commission to find a compromise on how operators of these assets and the regions they are located in could be compensated. The commission aims to wrap up its work on Feb. 1.

“For North Rhine-Westphalia, we expect a double-digit billion euro amount for structural change and infrastructure over the next decades,” North Rhine-Westphalia’s Economy Minister Andreas Pinkwart told journalists on Friday.

He said the exact sum could not be determined yet but added it would certainly be more than 10 billion euros. “Supported by Germany and the EU, the coal district can evolve into a model for how to safeguard energy and other resources.”

North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state, is home to some of the country’s largest energy groups, including RWE, Uniper and Steag, which all operate coal-fired power plants.

So far, Germany’s governing coalition has agreed to spend 1.5 billion euros to help regions affected by the planned exit from coal.

Annunci
Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Recessione e l’allegro pollaio di Bloomberg. Satira ovvero informazione?

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-01-18.

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‘There is something brewing’ in Germany: Fears of recession after latest industrial data

«- Another set of dismal industrial data from Germany has raised concerns over Germany’s economy.

– German industrial production declined 1.9 percent month-on-month in November, coming in way below a consensus for growth of 0.3 percent.

– Germany’s statistics office publishes preliminary GDP data for the fourth quarter and 2018 next week.»

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What Is a Recession? Examples, Impact, Benefits

«A recession is when the economy declines significantly for at least six months. That means there’s a drop in the following five economic indicators: real GDP, income, employment, manufacturing, and retail sales. ….

The only good thing about a recession is that it cures inflation. The Federal Reserve must always balance between slowing the economy enough to prevent inflation without triggering a recession. Usually, the Fed does this without the help of fiscal policy. Politicians, who control the federal budget, generally try to stimulate the economy as much as possible through lowering taxes, spending on social programs and ignoring the budget deficit. That’s how the U.S. debt grew to $10.5 trillion before even a penny was spent on the Economic Stimulus Package.»

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UK manufacturing in recession despite faster GDP growth

«The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said GDP increased by 0.4% in the second quarter from a rate of 0.2% in the previous three months, helped by stronger retail sales and good weather, which enabled the construction industry to make up lost ground from heavy snow earlier this year. ….

Philip Hammond, the chancellor, said Brexit uncertainty was depressing economic growth, as he used a trip to West Midlands on Friday to unveil £780m of new funding for high-tech industries.»

*

«Germania, crolla produzione industriale: “Rischio recessione tecnica aumenta”.

«Il dato che per la prima volta sta scalfendo le certezze tedesche sulla solidità della loro economia arriva dalla produzione industriale a novembre (-1,9%). ….

La Germania comincia a interrogarsi su quanto effettivamente solida sia la sua economia. L’ultimo dato che sta scalfendo le certezze tedesche arriva dalla produzione industriale: con un calo a novembre su ottobre dell’1,9% (mentre si attendeva appena un -0,3). Un crollo in termini statistici rispetto a un anno fa: –4,7 per cento. Numeri che fanno riemergere prepotentemente il rischio di una recessione tecnica»

* * * * * * *

Cerchiamo di ragionare, sempre che sia ancora possibile.

In Germania da giugno (-.9%) la produzione industriale sta diminuendo, fino al dato di -1.9% dell’8 gennaio. Tecnicamente parlando la Germania è in recessione.

In Francia la produzione industriale è -1.3%, in Italia il -2.8%, Spagna -2.66%.

Se è vero che l’11 gennaio la produzione industriale indiana era -.5%, sarebbe anche doveroso ricordare come da giugno ad ottobre fosse stata il +7.0%, +8.6%, +4.2%, +8.1%, rispettivamente.

In Cina da luglio a gennaio la produzione industriale è aumentata del 6.0%, 6.1%, 5.8%, 5.9%, 5.4%, rispettivamente.

I numeri ci indicano chiaramente come la recessione sia un fenomeno dell’Unione Europea, dalla quale India e Cina sono immuni. Sicuramente diminuiranno le loro esportazioni verso l’Unione Europea, ma stanno pur sempre ampliandosi per tassi percentuali maggiori del 5%: fosse successo in Europa Mr Juncker avrebbe brindato con un barilotto di Brunello.

* * * * * * *

Ma con Mr Macron incapsulato dai Gilets Jaunes e Frau Merkel indaffarata a sorvegliare Frau AKK che le sta facendo scarpe e corna, non sarà facile che l’Unione Europea si riprenda a breve.

Grande consolazione ci viene però dal pollaio di Bloomberg.

Se volete rovinarvi seguite i consigli del pollaio di Bloomberg.

Il pollaio di Bloomberg aveva sentenziato ‘buy’. Apple -8.81%

2019-01-14__bloomberg_pollaio__002

A starle a sentire sembrerebbero essere state catapultate da Marte sulla terra.

2019-01-14__bloomberg_pollaio__003

Come si constata dalla fotografia in cimosa, mostrano tutta la loro intelligenza, ossia cosciotti che il volgere del tempo ha reso scarsamente appetibili. Ma a starle a sentire si comprende come il loro corpo sia l’unica cosa che loro rimane: si capiscono di economia come Mr Di Maio di fisica delle particelle. Con la grande differenza che Mr Di Maio non si è mai sognato di spacciarsi per fisico.

Seguire il loro cicaleccio assorda: fino a tanto che ci siano miliardari che sganciano, qui sopravviviamo più che bene.

Già.

Questo è l’intermezzo umoristico che Bloomberg concede a noi poveri risparmiatori in cerca di un porto più o meno sicuro per il nostro miserrimo gruzzolo.

Nota.

Osservate bene. La gentile signora di destra ha una tetta più alta della controlaterale.


Bloomberg. 2019-01-14. The World’s Biggest Economies Are Moving Deeper Into a Slowdown

– OECD gauge adds to worries after numbers from Germany, China

– Central bankers have taken note of mounting global risks

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Momentum is easing across the world’s major economies, according to a gauge the OECD uses to predict turning points.

The Composite Leading Indicator is the latest sign of a synchronized slowdown in global growth, adding to recession warnings sparked by industrial figures in Germany last week and slumping trade figures for China earlier on Monday.

Easing Confirmed

Momentum is easing across the world’s major economies, according to a gauge the OECD uses to predict turning points.

The Composite Leading Indicator is the latest sign of a synchronized slowdown in global growth, adding to recession warnings sparked by industrial figures in Germany last week and slumping trade figures for China earlier on Monday.

Easing Confirmed

Growth in the some of the world’s biggest economies is slowing

The indicator, which is designed to anticipate turning points six-to-nine months ahead, has been ticking down since the start of 2018 and fell again in November. The OECD singled out the U.S. and Germany, where it said “tentative signs” of easing momentum are now confirmed.

Just two weeks into 2019, the OECD economic indicator follows a run of numbers that mean growth this year could be even slower than currently anticipated. For Bloomberg Economics, the data point to “slowdown, not meltdown,” but it still says the loss of momentum is “striking.”

What Our Economists Say:

“The early signs from the data suggest the world economy lost momentum as it entered 2019.” The median from a mapping of global measures “suggests gains may have dropped below the 3 percent mark for the first time since late 2016. That’s about 0.7 percentage point below the average since 2010 and a full percentage point below the 2000–2007 average. That slowdown is striking.”

China

Trade-tensions with the U.S. are showing up in data. Chinese exports slumped 4.4 percent in December from a year earlier, marking the worst performance in dollar terms since 2016. Imports also dropped the most since 2016, hinting at softening demand at home that could have implications for exporters to China.

The numbers sent stocks lower in Europe and Asia. The Stoxx 600 Index was down almost 1 percent as of 12 p.m. Frankfurt time.

The indicator, which is designed to anticipate turning points six-to-nine months ahead, has been ticking down since the start of 2018 and fell again in November. The OECD singled out the U.S. and Germany, where it said “tentative signs” of easing momentum are now confirmed.

Just two weeks into 2019, the OECD economic indicator follows a run of numbers that mean growth this year could be even slower than currently anticipated. For Bloomberg Economics, the data point to “slowdown, not meltdown,” but it still says the loss of momentum is “striking.”

What Our Economists Say:

“The early signs from the data suggest the world economy lost momentum as it entered 2019.” The median from a mapping of global measures “suggests gains may have dropped below the 3 percent mark for the first time since late 2016. That’s about 0.7 percentage point below the average since 2010 and a full percentage point below the 2000–2007 average. That slowdown is striking.”

–Bloombeg Economics. Read the Global Dashboard 

China

Trade-tensions with the U.S. are showing up in data. Chinese exports slumped 4.4 percent in December from a year earlier, marking the worst performance in dollar terms since 2016. Imports also dropped the most since 2016, hinting at softening demand at home that could have implications for exporters to China.

The numbers sent stocks lower in Europe and Asia. The Stoxx 600 Index was down almost 1 percent as of 12 p.m. Frankfurt time.

The indicator, which is designed to anticipate turning points six-to-nine months ahead, has been ticking down since the start of 2018 and fell again in November. The OECD singled out the U.S. and Germany, where it said “tentative signs” of easing momentum are now confirmed.

Just two weeks into 2019, the OECD economic indicator follows a run of numbers that mean growth this year could be even slower than currently anticipated. For Bloomberg Economics, the data point to “slowdown, not meltdown,” but it still says the loss of momentum is “striking.”

China

Trade-tensions with the U.S. are showing up in data. Chinese exports slumped 4.4 percent in December from a year earlier, marking the worst performance in dollar terms since 2016. Imports also dropped the most since 2016, hinting at softening demand at home that could have implications for exporters to China.

The numbers sent stocks lower in Europe and Asia. The Stoxx 600 Index was down almost 1 percent as of 12 p.m. Frankfurt time.

Trade Slumps

End of front-loaded export demand and slowing economy hit trade

Source: Customs General Administration

Euro Area

Industry in the region’s major economies had a grim month in November. Output declined 1.7 percent, with a slump in Germany sparking talk that it could shrink for a second quarter, putting it in a technical recession. There are also concerns about Italy’s economy, while riots and protests in France have hit growth there.

U.S.

Jobs growth remains strong, according to the latest payrolls report, but measures of activity have weakened. The Institute for Supply Management’s key manufacturing gauge is at a two-year low, and the housing market is cooling. Overall expansion is forecast to moderate this year, partly due to a fading boost from the Trump administration’s tax cuts.

Federal Reserve policy makers have taken note of the changed outlook and suggested they could pause their interest-rate hike cycle as they await clarity. Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that the Fed can be “patient and flexible and wait and see what does evolve.”

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Unione Europea

EU. Produzione industriale – 3.3% anno su anno. Fermiamo questi Gerarchi.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-01-14.

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Eurostat ha rilasciato i dati sulla produzione industriale nell’Eurozona e nell’Unione Europea.

«November 2018 compared with October 2018

Industrial production down by 1.7% in euro area

Down by 1.3% in EU28

In November 2018 compared with October 2018, seasonally adjusted industrial production fell by 1.7% in the euro area (EA19) and by 1.3% in the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In October 2018, industrial production increased by 0.1% in both the euro area and in the EU28.

In November 2018 compared with November 2017, industrial production fell by 3.3% in the euro area and by 2.2% in the EU28.»

* * *

Recession fears grow as eurozone factories stumble and China’s exports fall – as it happened

«Stock markets are down again as weak eurozone factory output and Chinese trade woes worry investors

Latest: Eurozone industrial production shrank 1.7% in November

– Worst decline in almost three years.

Introduction: China’s exports fell 4.4% in December

– Biggest fall in exports in two years as slowdown gathers pace

But US-China trade surplus hits a record»

* * *

«In November 2018 compared with November 2017, industrial production fell by 3.3% in the euro area and by 2.2% in the EU28»

Questi due crolli sono un atto di accusa della dirigenza di questa Europa: Mr Juncker, Mr Tusk, Mr Muscovici, Herr Oettinger se ne dovrebbero assumere la piena e totale responsabilità: quindi, dare le dimissioni.

Con il valido aiuto di Mr Macron in Francia e di Frau Merkel in Germania, hanno dilapidato capitali immensi dietro le loro ubbie o, meglio. per finanziare i loro sodali ed amichetti di merende.

Questa è un’Unione Europea di burocrati avulsi da quanto stia succedendo nel mondo e, a giudicare dal loro comportamento, nemici giurati del popolo lavoratore.

Aggiungiamo queste poche righe tratte da Eurostat: fanno venire un pienamente giustificato furor omicida.

« Monthly comparison by main industrial grouping and by Member State

In the euro area in November 2018, compared with October 2018, the production of capital goods fell by 2.3%, durable consumer goods by 1.7%, intermediate goods by 1.2%, non-durable consumer goods by 1.0% and energy by 0.6%.

In the EU28, the production of capital goods fell by 1.6%, intermediate goods by 1.1%, durable consumer goods by 1.0%, non-durable consumer goods by 0.6% and energy by 0.5%.

Among Member States for which data are available, the largest decreases in industrial production were observed in Ireland (-7.5%), Portugal (-2.5%), Germany and Lithuania (both -1.9%).The highest increases were registered in Estonia (+4.5%), Greece (+3.1%) and Malta (+2.6%).

Annual comparison by main industrial grouping and by Member State

In the euro area in November 2018, compared with November 2017, the production of energy fell by 5.2%, capital goods by 4.5%, durable consumer goods by 3.5%, intermediate goods by 3.0% and non-durable consumer goods by 0.1%.

In the EU28, the production of energy fell by 4.3%, capital goods by 3.0%, intermediate goods by 2.2% and durable consumer goods by 1.4%, while the production of non-durable consumer goods rose by 0.7%

Among Member States for which data are available, the largest decreases in industrial production were observed in Ireland (-9.1%), Germany (-5.1%), Portugal (-2.9%) and Spain (-2.8%). The highest increases were registered in Estonia (+7.9%), Poland (+5.3%) and Hungary (+3.5%).»

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Guarda caso, i paesi loro invisi agli eurocrati per motivi ideologici sono proprio quelli i governi dei quali hanno evitato la recessione: Estonia, Grecia. Malta, Polonia (+5.35) ed Ungheria (+3.5%).

E la Grande Germania? -5.1%: complimenti alla Große Koalition.

Polonia ed Ungheria sono le testimonianze viventi di come si possa anche governare onestamente. E persino da sobri.

Rai News. 2019-01-14. Crolla produzione industriale Eurozona: -1,7% a novembre. S&P: governo ottimista su crescita Italia.

Su base annuale la produzione è crollata del 3,3%. Standard&Poor’s taglia le stime: Pil Italia +0,7% nel 2019.

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Crollo della produzione industriale europea a novembre rispetto a ottobre: nella zona euro è scesa dell’1,7%, nella Ue-28 dell’1,3%. Lo comunica Eurostat. A ottobre era aumentata di 0,1% in entrambe le aree. Su base annuale è crollata del 3,3% nell’area euro e del 2,2% nella Ue-28. Il calo più ampio si registra in Irlanda (-7,5%), Portogallo (-2,5%), Germania e Lituania (-1,9%). In Italia confermato il calo di 1,6%, dato già pubblicato dall’Istat venerdì scorso. Nella zona euro, a novembre, nel confronto congiunturale, la produzione di beni capitali è scesa del 2,3%, quella di beni di consumo durevoli dell’1,7%, beni strumentali -1,2%, beni di consumo non durevoli -1% ed energia -0,6%. Nella Ue la produzione di beni capitali è scesa dell’1,6%, beni di consumo durevoli -1%, beni di consumo non durevoli -0,6%, energia 0,5%. Tra gli Stati membri i cali più alti sono stati osservati in Irlanda (-7,5%), Portogallo (-2,5%), Germania e Lituania (-1,9%) mentre gli incrementi maggiori si sono registrati in Estonia (+4,5%), Grecia (+3,1%) e Malta (+2,6%). L’Italia a novembre ha registrato una variazione negativa del 2,6% nel confronto con l’anno precedente.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Cina, Commercio, Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Senza categoria

Cina. Il primo gennaio è entrata in vigore la riforma fiscale.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-01-05.

Cina

«China’s rich brace for tax raid on $24 trillion wealth pile

– Havens are disappearing, overseas earnings will become taxable

– Foreign assets to be easier to track, transfers may be levied »

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«China’s plan to cut taxes in 2019 for the masses has the nation’s super-rich running for cover on concern the government will make up the shortfall by going after the wealthy»

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«Changes to the tax regime as of Jan. 1 mean authorities will be paying closer attention to assets and investment holdings.»

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«In a nation where personal wealth is estimated to have climbed to a record $24 trillion in 2018 — $1 trillion of which is held abroad — that potentially offers rich pickings»

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«Anxiety over how the new rules will be enforced has already triggered a flood of Chinese clients seeking to create overseas trusts.»

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«Tougher taxes at home could have implications beyond China’s shores, with the country’s wealthy having been on a buying binge in recent years, driving up prices for everything from property in Vancouver and Sydney, to famous artworks and fine wines»

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«Under the new rules, owners of offshore companies will not only pay taxes on dividends they receive but will also face levies of as much as 20 percent on corporate profits, from as low as zero previously.»

*

«This has triggered a flood of rich families seeking refuge via trusts, which often shield wealthy owners from having to pay taxes unless the trusts hand out dividends.»

*

«In the past, the rich could avoid paying taxes on overseas earnings by acquiring a foreign passport or green card, while keeping their Chinese citizenship. But this won’t work starting in January as the government will tax global income from all holders of “hukou” household registrations»

*

«The system allows authorities to view various tax-related data, which had been scattered across various government departments, in one consolidated platform. The new system also beefs up the identification process by preventing individuals from divvying up their income across multiple sources or ID numbers to pay lower taxes.»

*

«But it’s not just the rich that may face a stricter tax environment. China lowered the threshold for blocking citizens with overdue taxes from leaving the country to 100,000 yuan ($14,600) from the previous threshold of 1 million yuan»

*

«Though the tax rate and the details remain unclear, the prospects of the tax has caused people with multiple apartments to worry and made properties a less desirable investment tool»

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La storia insegna che gli stati hanno ben poco interesse a tassare una popolazione misera: ne caverebbero ben poco. Ma quando la ricchezza diventa generalizzata, in questo caso si stima essere 24 trilioni, ben pochi governanti resistono alla tentazione. 

Il caso cinese sembrerebbe però essere maggiormente complesso.

Se sicuramente in Cina sembrerebbe essere terminata la fase dello ‘arricchitevi come potete, ma arricchitevi‘ altrettanto sicuramente la situazione politica, economica e finanziaria interna non era sembrata essere troppo perturbata dagli investimenti esteri.

Se gli investimenti cinesi esteri non erano tassati, fatto questo che li ha stimolati non poco, altrettanto chiaramente dovrebbe essere evidente come siano stati mezzi potenti di penetrazione dei mercati stanieri con la forza dell’acquisto.

Nei fatti la Cina sta cambiando i suoi obiettivi strategici nei confronti del mondo. Gli investimenti esteri sono transitati ad essere un mezzo di dominio mondiale: hanno cessato di essere mero strumento di arricchimento.

In questa ottica, la tassazione delle attività estere potrebbe diventare un’arma impropria finalizzata al fine di conquistare una posizione egemone mondiale. Il polso della situazione è dato dal titolo di apertura del The New York Times:

Sexism Claims From Bernie Sanders’s 2016 Run: Paid Less, Treated Worse

Con simili avversari pwe i Cinesi è davvero facile conquistarsi l’egemonia.


Bloomberg. 2019-01-03. China’s Rich Brace for Tax Raid on $24 Trillion Wealth Pile

– Havens are disappearing, overseas earnings will become taxable

– Foreign assets to be easier to track, transfers may be levied

*

China’s plan to cut taxes in 2019 for the masses has the nation’s super-rich running for cover on concern the government will make up the shortfall by going after the wealthy.

Changes to the tax regime as of Jan. 1 mean authorities will be paying closer attention to assets and investment holdings. In a nation where personal wealth is estimated to have climbed to a record $24 trillion in 2018 — $1 trillion of which is held abroad — that potentially offers rich pickings. Anxiety over how the new rules will be enforced has already triggered a flood of Chinese clients seeking to create overseas trusts.

Tougher taxes at home could have implications beyond China’s shores, with the country’s wealthy having been on a buying binge in recent years, driving up prices for everything from property in Vancouver and Sydney, to famous artworks and fine wines.

Offshore Cache

Chinese overseas wealth more than doubled between 2012 and 2018

The State Administration of Taxation didn’t respond to a faxed request for comment.

Here’s how the new tax rules may affect — and rein in — China’s rich:

Crackdown on Havens

Under the new rules, owners of offshore companies will not only pay taxes on dividends they receive but will also face levies of as much as 20 percent on corporate profits, from as low as zero previously. This has triggered a flood of rich families seeking refuge via trusts, which often shield wealthy owners from having to pay taxes unless the trusts hand out dividends. Overseas buildings or shell companies are also becoming easier to track for authorities as China embraces an international data-sharing agreement known as the Common Reporting Standard, or CRS.

It’s not clear how the government will utilize CRS data, especially in early 2019, but authorities may grant amnesty for a certain period for a stable transition or focus on penalizing the biggest offenders, according to Jason Mi, a partner at Ernst & Young in Beijing.

Closing Loopholes

In the past, the rich could avoid paying taxes on overseas earnings by acquiring a foreign passport or green card, while keeping their Chinese citizenship. But this won’t work starting in January as the government will tax global income from all holders of “hukou” household registrations — the most encompassing way of identifying a Chinese national — regardless of whether they have any additional nationalities.

That’s prompted many people to give up their Chinese citizenship in 2018 by surrendering their “hukou” to avoid paying taxes on foreign income from Jan. 1, according to Peter Ni, a Shanghai-based partner and tax specialist at Zhong Lun Law Firm. Starting in 2019, people surrendering Chinese citizenship will need to be audited by tax authorities first and possibly explain all their sources of income, according to Ni.

Reining in Gifts

Tycoons transferring assets to relatives or third parties could be subject to taxation in the new year, depending on how strictly China enforces rules on gifts, according to Ni at Zhong Lun. The levies could reach as much as 20 percent of the asset’s appreciated value, according to Ni.

For example, if a tycoon were to transfer overseas shares worth $1 million to his son for free, and if those shares originally cost the tycoon $100,000, the tycoon could be taxed 20 percent of the $900,000 increase in the value of those shares, or $180,000.

The risk of getting taxed will be higher if the recipient is a foreigner because their assets may be beyond Chinese officials’ reach, according to Ni.

Tougher Taxman

Tax authorities will sharpen their scrutiny of high-net-worth individuals thanks to more modern tools at their disposal, according to Ni. One is the Golden Tax System Phase III platform that’s being increasingly used to chase down people’s entire source of income. The system allows authorities to view various tax-related data, which had been scattered across various government departments, in one consolidated platform. The new system also beefs up the identification process by preventing individuals from divvying up their income across multiple sources or ID numbers to pay lower taxes.

But it’s not just the rich that may face a stricter tax environment. China lowered the threshold for blocking citizens with overdue taxes from leaving the country to 100,000 yuan ($14,600) from the previous threshold of 1 million yuan, according to the official Xinhua news agency.

Eyes on Property

Further down the road, China is preparing to introduce a property tax law that could go into effect as soon as 2020. Though the tax rate and the details remain unclear, the prospects of the tax has caused people with multiple apartments to worry and made properties a less desirable investment tool, EY’s Mi said.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Germania. Salario minimo 14.5 euro sopra soglia povertà.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-01-05

2018-12-14__Germania__000

Precisiamo immediatamente alcuni concetti fondamentali.

– Scopo di uno stato è la garanzia della incolumità fisica dei Cittadini, ai quali deve essere garantita la possibilità di lavorare ricavandone almeno quanto basta per sopravvivere dignitosamente.

– Regola aurea sarebbe che tutti debbano star bene: poi, se qualcuno stesse meglio, tanto di guadagnato per la Collettività.

– Dalla definizione stessa discende come il valore del salario minimo garantito debba sempre essere valutato in confronto al costo della vita.

– Se millecinquecento euro al mese consentono ad un single una vita ragionevole in una cittadina di provincia, diventano una cifra del tutto insufficiente in una grande città, ove casa e trasporti incidono severamente sui costi.

– Alla luce di quanto detto, i dati medi relativi ad una nazione dovrebbero essere sempre letti con molto buon senso, e le comparazioni tra diversi stati fatte con grande prudenza.

– Da ultimo, ma non certo per ultimo, si dovrebbe ricordare come vi sia grande differenza tra il classico lavoro full-time e l’offerta di lavori a tempo parziale oppure a contratto di  breve durata. Questa seconda tipologia soddisfa l’esigenza di integrare il bilancio familiare senza tuttavia rinunciare ad un qualche obiettivo prefissato. Un caso classico potrebbe essere lo studente che intende guadagnare quel tanto che gli basta per pagarsi gli studi, oppure la casalinga che desidera integrare lo stipendio del marito pur senza venire meno alle sua mansioni in famiglia. Il lavoro part time diventa ingiusti quando vi si accede in surroga al fatto che non si trova null’altro.

*

Un parametro utile potrebbe essere, inter alias, il rapporto tra il percepito netto e la soglia di povertà relativa alla zona di residenza.

* * * * * * *

«With the previous minimum wage of €8.84 per hour, a single adult without children in Germany could expect to take home €1,110.50 a month after taxes and social contributions …. or about €14.50 above Germany’s official poverty threshold»

*

«Adults are typically considered vulnerable to poverty by the European Union if they have an income of less than 60 percent of their countries’ median income.»

*

«The additional 35 cents per hour doesn’t bring Germany’s minimum wage workers much more above the official poverty level. It amounts to approximately €35 more per month at full-time employment»

*

«The new top of the list is Romania. The country’s poverty threshold for people living alone is just €137 per month. The minimum wage guarantees almost twice as much if you work full time.»

*

«What is known is that, in general, women, younger workers, people with disabilities, members of minority groups and lower-skilled workers are all more likely to be paid less»

*

«In Germany, 60 percent of minimum wage workers are women.»

*

«For part-time employees, living on the minimum wage is much more difficult. In Germany, almost 50 percent of people who work for the minimum wage are classified as “minijobbers,” employed for a few hours per week for a maximum of €450 per month»

*

«in Germany, just over 3.6 percent of jobs, or 1.4 million total, were performed by workers paid the minimum wage»

* * * * * * * *

A nostro personale parere, quello che dovrebbe essere il salario minimo del minijobber ovvero della persona a part–time non dovrebbe essere soggetto a regolamentazione statale, ma lasciato alla libera contrattazione di mercato: questo ultimo è troppo pleomorfo per poter essere regolamentato a livello centrale.

Non ne facciamo un problema etico ovvero politico, ma solo ed esclusivamente di concreta fattibilità.

Compito invece dello stato sarebbe quello di lasciare generare posti di lavoro full-time, così da assorbire tutta la domanda di lavoro.


Deutsche Welle. 2019-01-02. Germany’s minimum wage is barely above the poverty line

Minimum wage should ensure that full-time workers are not poor. Most EU countries that have a minimum wage meet this minimum standard — at least for people living alone. But some, including Germany, cut it awfully close.

*

At about €1,500 ($1,700) per month gross for full-time workers, Germany has one of the highest minimum wages in the European Union. And it’s rising: As of January 1, employers are required to pay their workers at least €9.19 per hour, a 35-cent raise. Compared with their counterparts in other EU nations, Germany’s minimum wage workers seem to do fairly well in sheer numbers. Luxembourg’s minimum wage, for instance, may be higher, but Germany’s is far closer to the top of the list than it is to the bottom.

DW has analyzed the income that full-time minimum wage workers take home each month in the 22 EU countries that have minimum wage policies in place, using numbers from 2017. Though the data are complicated, the research question was simple: In which countries are workers vulnerable to poverty even though they have full-time jobs?

With the previous minimum wage of €8.84 per hour, a single adult without children in Germany could expect to take home €1,110.50 a month after taxes and social contributions, according to DW’s calculations — or about €14.50 above Germany’s official poverty threshold. Adults are typically considered vulnerable to poverty by the European Union if they have an income of less than 60 percent of their countries’ median income. The median income is the income level that is exceeded by half of the population and not reached by the other half.

Minimum wage workers still vulnerable to poverty

This threshold is relative, of course: If you’re classified as poor in Germany, you’re poor in comparison with people who receive the national median income. Compared with people paid the median income in Romania, though, you still have significantly more money each month. The poverty threshold nevertheless reveals a lot about where minimum wage workers stand: How easily can they participate in activities and maintain the standard of living considered “normal” in their societies? This is why the poverty threshold, despite its drawbacks, is still widely used to craft policy and conduct research on inequality.

The additional 35 cents per hour doesn’t bring Germany’s minimum wage workers much more above the official poverty level. It amounts to approximately €35 more per month at full-time employment, according to DW’s estimates. Minimum wage workers are a long way from the median income.

The income level calculated here is for people who live alone, have no children and are employed full time. It is additionally assumed that they would receive all the social assistance they are eligible for. This this is used to calculate their disposable income, which is also the basis for the European Union’s calculation of the poverty threshold.

By that metric, Germany is pretty far down the list: It’s ahead of only Estonia and Latvia, where minimum wage workers, including those employed full time and living alone, would nevertheless be considered vulnerable to poverty. But, even in Luxembourg, the country with the highest minimum wage in the European Union, workers barely end up above the threshold.

The new top of the list is Romania. The country’s poverty threshold for people living alone is just €137 per month. The minimum wage guarantees almost twice as much if you work full time. But one reason why Romania ranks so highly is that overall wages there are pretty low already, said Thorsten Schulten, a political scientist who specializes in international wage and labor policies at the Hans Böckler Foundation in Germany. “In countries with low wages, the minimum wage will be relatively better than in countries with higher wage levels,” he said. A similar situation, if not as extreme, can be found in Greece, Portugal and other countries where wages are lower than the EU median. Absolute poverty is still widespread in Romania: According to EU figures, almost a third of the population cannot afford to replace worn-out clothes with new ones.

UK and Netherlands rank better in comparison

But some countries with much higher wages do a lot better than Germany does. In the UK, for example, minimum wage income is the equivalent of a whopping €650 per month above the poverty threshold. It is close, in fact, to the median income. This is in large part because of the social assistance that many minimum wage workers can qualify for: Housing, employer-provided benefits and low tax rates can provide workers with the equivalent of €300 a month on top of their gross wages. This is similar in the Netherlands.

In Germany, on the other hand, full-time minimum wage workers who live alone aren’t eligible for assistance, but they are obliged to pay comparatively high social contributions: These alone take about €300 out of their monthly pay. This is a problem for low-wage workers, said Barbara Binder, who researches income inequality at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT). “Social contributions in Germany are high starting from a very low income,” she said. “It’s interesting to see how differently European countries assess the extent of support that people on the minimum wage should have access to.”

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Fallen Angels. Uno dei nuovi incubi del mercato. – Bloomberg.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-12-29.

2018-12-25__Fallen Angels 001

Nel 1984 Mr David Salomon, allora capo del Salomon Asset Management, coniò il termine ‘fallen angels’.

«Generally speaking, a fallen angel is a bond that is downgraded to BB+ or below (junk) by at least two of the three major rating firms — Moody’s Investors Services, S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings — after being formally rated BBB- or higher (investment-grade).»

*

«Downgrades can happen when a company isn’t creating enough revenue or generating enough cash to service its debt, or when it pursues financially aggressive policies to appease shareholders and takes on so much debt that its financial leverage — debt as a percentage of the company’s overall capital structure — becomes disproportionate.»

*

«A fall to junk status, more politely called high-yield, affects borrowers and investors»

*

«A company that slides all the way to junk may need to tack on debt covenants to the formal contracts with bondholders»

*

«These covenants protect investors who agree to lend to the now-riskier issuer and, often, prevent the company from benefiting shareholders at the expense of bondholders»

*

«Junk status also can force a wave of selling by investment companies and funds whose mandates prevent them from holding credit below investment grade»

*

«The prices on the bonds may need to fall to compensate investors for holding a less liquid, or actively traded, security.»

* * * * * * *

Tutte le realtà economiche seguono lo schema di vita biologico, che le vede dapprima giovani, quindi mature ed infine senescenti. Alla fine decedono, sia per chiusura sia per fallimento.

Se investire nelle aziende giovani ha il rischio che potrebbero anche non avere successo, investire nelle imprese mature è indubbiamente molto più rischioso.

Questa banale considerazione evidenzia quanto sia importante il timing negli investimenti. Si dovrebbe comprare a buon prezzo e rivendere con le quotazioni all’apice. Tuttavia poche situazioni umane sono più soggette al principio di inerzia. L’investitore vorrebbe aver collocato le proprie risorse una volta per tutte: ma questa è pura utopia.

La torpidità allo smobilizzo è la più frequente causa efficiente delle perdite subite.

Ditte un tempo floride, sia pensi solo alla Rank Xeros, alla Ford Motor Co. oppure alla General Electric Co., fanno ora parte del club dei fallen angels. Per il momento triboli sui loro bond, domani o dopo per il loro fallimento.

«Ford Motor Co.’s debt trades like it’s speculative grade. PG&E Corp., the California utility facing billions in liabilities from the potential role it played in a huge recent wildfire, is on credit watch negative by S&P.»

*

«Companies like Ford and PG&E that are rated BBB- (“triple B minus”), the lowest rung before junk, comprise more than 14 percent of the $5 trillion investment-grade corporate index»

*

«The BBB universe — the three lowest investment-grade rungs — has grown to represent more than half of the index.»

*

«Credit downgrades along with rising interest rates would increase the cost of debt capital, leaving businesses with less cash to invest»

*

«An overwhelming increase in fallen angels could also create disruption in credit markets, heightening fears of broader instability»

*

«UBS sees fallen angel debt as rising to $150 billion to $175 billion in a recession, just short of 2009 levels.»

*

«most of the BBB rated companies with large capital structures are “unlikely to become fallen angels” during and after the next recession.»

* * * * * * * *

Si faccia attenzione.

Sia che siano stati acquistati direttamente, sia che siano stati acquistati tramite fondi di investimento, i bond societari hanno sempre un ché di pericoloso.

Il pericolo poi aumenta significativamente nei periodi di crisi economica, per non parlare poi di una recessione.

Infine, non poco giocano in Occidente le scelte governative, che spesso penalizzano comparti di per sé sani per motivi politici. Si pensi solo al comparto carbonifero tedesco oppure al dramma passato di recente dal comparto estrattivo del gas naturale negli Stati Uniti.

Un comparto automobilistico che avrebbe potuto essere florido è stato bastonato da molti governi per soli motivi ideologici. Hanno ammazzato più aziende i vari governi che non la peste nera.

Meglio sbuffare sotto gli inviti alla prudenza che il dover piangere su investimenti persi.


Bloomberg. 2018-12-25. Why ‘Fallen Angels’ Are a Bond Market Preoccupation

Xerox Corp. is the latest big-name American company to join an inauspicious club. Its bonds completed a fall from investment grade to junk status on Dec. 18, making them what’s known as “fallen angels.” There’s concern that the ranks of fallen angels will be growing in coming months, especially if the U.S. economy moves further toward recession.

  1. What makes a fallen angel?

Generally speaking, a fallen angel is a bond that is downgraded to BB+ or below (junk) by at least two of the three major rating firms — Moody’s Investors Services, S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings — after being formally rated BBB- or higher (investment-grade). Downgrades can happen when a company isn’t creating enough revenue or generating enough cash to service its debt, or when it pursues financially aggressive policies to appease shareholders and takes on so much debt that its financial leverage — debt as a percentage of the company’s overall capital structure — becomes disproportionate.

  1. What happens when bonds lose investment-grade status?

A fall to junk status, more politely called high-yield, affects borrowers and investors. For a company like Xerox, which relies on the capital markets to fund operations, downgrades make it more expensive to borrow. A company that slides all the way to junk may need to tack on debt covenants to the formal contracts with bondholders. These covenants protect investors who agree to lend to the now-riskier issuer and, often, prevent the company from benefiting shareholders at the expense of bondholders. Junk status also can force a wave of selling by investment companies and funds whose mandates prevent them from holding credit below investment grade. The prices on the bonds may need to fall to compensate investors for holding a less liquid, or actively traded, security.

  1. Which companies might be next?

Ford Motor Co.’s debt trades like it’s speculative grade. PG&E Corp., the California utility facing billions in liabilities from the potential role it played in a huge recent wildfire, is on credit watch negative by S&P. Both companies are among the names on the hot seat. S&P’s global fixed income research group sees companies in the retail sector as the most vulnerable to becoming fallen angels. UBS, meanwhile, sees non-financial fallen angel debt — which could reach as much as $100 billion if the cycle deteriorates — as being concentrated in consumer non-cyclicals and energy.

  1. Why are fallen angels in the news?

Companies like Ford and PG&E that are rated BBB- (“triple B minus”), the lowest rung before junk, comprise more than 14 percent of the $5 trillion investment-grade corporate index. (The BBB universe — the three lowest investment-grade rungs — has grown to represent more than half of the index.) Anheuser-Busch InBev NV and Lowe’s Cos. were downgraded into the space recently, the beer maker amassing over $100 billion of debt through acquisitions and the home-improvement company planning to ramp up leverage to buy back shares. General Electric Co. was downgraded to BBB in part because of weakening cash flows that may make it harder to manage a massive debt load. With the BBB rung as crowded as it’s ever been, and a growing amount of debt that will mature and need to be refinanced over the next few years even as interest rates rise, there are concerns that a turn in the economic cycle could trigger a series of downgrades.

  1. Is everyone worried?

Not everyone sees an avalanche of downgrades to high-yield as a likely near-term scenario. In a Dec. 17 blog post, AllianceBernstein called for more of a “flurry” than a “blizzard” as the credit cycle turns and said that the process of losing investment-grade status could take years to play out for many issuers. According to strategists at Bank of America Corp., most of the BBB rated companies with large capital structures are “unlikely to become fallen angels” during and after the next recession. Barclays Plc analysts are more worried about downgrades within the investment-grade space than they are about fallen angels. That said, the BBB market has rung warning signs for many. “Unsustainable leverage” among companies in the space, per Guggenheim, “warrants heightened scrutiny.”

  1. Why has BBB gotten so crowded?

Historically low borrowing costs over the last decade allowed companies to issue debt and pursue aggressive growth strategies with little consequence. On top of that, leniency by the ratings agencies allowed companies to maintain investment-grade ratings despite elevated leverage ratios.

  1. What would a mass downgrade mean for the economy?

Credit downgrades along with rising interest rates would increase the cost of debt capital, leaving businesses with less cash to invest. That could hamper economic growth. An overwhelming increase in fallen angels could also create disruption in credit markets, heightening fears of broader instability. Such an event might lead to “significant dislocations” and “disruptive repricing” in the high-yield market, per Guggenheim and AllianceBernstein, respectively. UBS sees fallen angel debt as rising to $150 billion to $175 billion in a recession, just short of 2009 levels.

  1. Where did the expression ‘fallen angel’ come from?

A 1984 story in American Banker newspaper attributed it to David Solomon, head of Solomon Asset Management, which at the time was a leading investor in the emerging field of junk bonds. (He’s not to be confused with the current head of Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Finanza e Sistema Bancario

Nikkei. -5.01%. Mala tempora currunt, sed peiora parantur.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-12-25.

2018-12-25__Nikkei__001

Il primo ottobre il Nikkei valeva 24,245.76: oggi vale 19,155.74.

In tre mesi il Nikkei ha perso il 20.99%, 100 * (24,245.76 – 19,155.74) / 24,245.76.

Ma per ritornare ai livello del primo ottobre, il Nikkei dovrebbe risalire del 26.57%, 100 * (24,245.76 – 19,155.74) / – 19,155.74

*

Il primo ottobre il Dow Jones valeva 26,828.39: oggi vale 21,792.20.

In tre mesi il Down Jones ha perso il 18.77%.

«US stocks had their worst Christmas Eve on record»

*

«The Dow Jones index of 30 leading companies fell more than 650 points on Monday, and is on track for its worst December since 1931, during the Great Depression»

* * * * * * *

Come sempre accade in circostanze del genere, tutti si affannano a cercare il ‘colpevole‘.

«The Asian markets are believed to be largely reacting to movement in the US and an ensuing shares sell-off by concerned investors»

*

«US-China trade tensions are a factor, as well as reports that President Donald Trump has discussed firing the chairman of the US central bank, Jerome Powell»

*

«The US government has also entered partial shutdown, after Congress refused to fund President Trump’s planned US-Mexico border wall.»

Dunque, la colpa di tutto questo sconquasso sarebbe ascrivibile al solo Mr Trump.

*

Fate conto di guardare un castello di carte. Sembrerebbe essere in equilibrio stabile, mentre in realtà è in un equilibrio metastabile. Basta un alito e crolla.

Orbene. La colpa del crollo è da addebitarsi al soffio ovvero alla fragilità intrinseca del castello di carte?

Se le carte fossero state incollate, il castello non sarebbe certo caduto.

*

Il mercato azionario occidentale è ancora molto gonfiato rispetto a quello che dovrebbe essere il suo reale valore.

Non ci si faccia illusioni di sorta: ma proprio nessuna. Nel tempo le borse sono destinate a decrescere, più o meno convulsamente, con qualche pausa di arresto, ma alla fine dovranno ben tornare ad uno steady state. Ossia, ad un momento in cui la valutazione finanziaria sia ragionevolmente in accordo con quella economica.

L’epoca di una finanza scollata dall’economia è finita.

* * * * * * *

Stupisce un fatto.

Mentre tutti si affannano a cercare il colpevole, nessuno sembrerebbe preoccuparsi di cercare di capire come uscire da questa situazione.

Ma le ricette sono tutte dolorose, molto dolorose. Si dovrà tornare a privilegiare l’economia rispetto la finanza.

Molto semplicemente, gli investimenti fatti nel comparto produttivo devono rendere di più di quelli fatti nel comparto finanziario. Fino a tanto che non sia stato raggiunto questo equilibrio, il sistema economico resterà instabile.


→ Bbc. 2018-12-25. Japan’s Nikkei index slides amid US uncertainty

Japan’s main stock market index has plunged, reflecting traders’ worries following a slide on Wall Street.

The Nikkei closed down 5% on Tuesday, its worst finish since April 2017. Indexes in Shanghai, Bangkok and Taiwan also fell.

Investors have been concerned about President Trump’s dispute with the US central bank chief and another government shutdown.

US stocks had their worst Christmas Eve on record.

The Dow Jones index of 30 leading companies fell more than 650 points on Monday, and is on track for its worst December since 1931, during the Great Depression.

Many financial markets in Asia, Europe and North America are closed on Tuesday for Christmas.

In China, the Shanghai composite index fell more than 2% on Tuesday morning.

What triggered the falls?

The Asian markets are believed to be largely reacting to movement in the US and an ensuing shares sell-off by concerned investors.

US-China trade tensions are a factor, as well as reports that President Donald Trump has discussed firing the chairman of the US central bank, Jerome Powell.

The US government has also entered partial shutdown, after Congress refused to fund President Trump’s planned US-Mexico border wall.

What has Trump said?

On Monday, President Trump lashed out at the Federal Reserve, the US central bank, as the stock market plunged.

The president said the Fed was “the only problem” of the US economy.

Five big things from Trump’s head-spinning week

US shutdown could stretch into new year

Mr Trump continually boasted about Wall Street’s steep climb during the first year of his presidency, but has sought to deflect blame since markets hit a rough patch in 2018.

Soothed or spooked?

On Sunday US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin took the unusual step of calling the chief executives of America’s six largest banks in a bid to soothe market jitters.

Afterwards, the Treasury shared a statement about Mr Mnuchin’s phone call, confirming that the banks’ chief executives had “ample liquidity available for lending to consumer, business markets, and all other market operations”.

“The markets continue to function properly,” it added.

On Monday, Mr Mnuchin called top market regulators and officials from the US central bank to allay fears.

Not a very merry Christmas

Analysis by Samira Hussain, business reporter, BBC News, New York

It is rare for a US treasury secretary to make public his discussions with American financial institutions. But that is exactly what Mr Mnuchin did.

He was attempting to ease financial markets but Monday’s swoon showed he did the opposite.

So then President Trump weighed in by tweet and renewed his criticism of the Federal Reserve. That did not have the desired effect either. Instead of the typical Santa Rally, we saw US investors flee stocks for safety.

Not exactly the Christmas cheer the White House was hoping for.

What does this mean for 2019? A lot will depend on what happens in Washington: government shutdown, simmering trade tensions and the president’s tweets.

One thing has been made very clear: if the White House wants to calm nervous investors, it’s going to need to get much better at its messaging.

*

Nikkei Enters Bear Market to Extend Global Rout: Markets Wrap [Bloomberg]

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average slid into a bear market, as a global equity rout continued unabated in the last week of the year, with renewed turmoil in Washington rattling investors. Israeli stocks sank for a fourth day, while the yen and Japanese bonds rose.

The Japanese benchmark fell 5 percent on Tuesday, widening its drop to 21 percent from its Oct. 2 peak, taking its cue from the S&P 500’s worst trading session before the Christmas holiday. Chinese shares, the other major Asian market open on Tuesday, also declined as investors shrugged off a pledge by the government to do more to support companies.

Investors looking to Washington for signs of stability that might bolster confidence instead got further unnerved on Monday. President Donald Trump blasted the Federal Reserve, blaming the central bank for the three-month equity rout days after Bloomberg reported he inquired about firing the chairman, while Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin sought to assuage rising anxiety with a hastily called meeting of top financial regulators.

“The Trump bubble, which has brought gains in U.S. stocks and the dollar, is collapsing,” said Mitsushige Akino, an executive officer at Ichiyoshi Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. “The more stocks fall, the more investor sentiment gets worse, so there’s more people who need to sell temporarily, such as stop-loss selling.”

The tumult in Washington added to concerns of investors, who have seen equities worldwide tumble on concerns about a slowing U.S. economy, the pace of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and the ongoing trade war. The S&P 500 plunged almost 3 percent to end at a 20-month low on Monday.

Read more on how the dollar is exposed to dysfunction and paralysis in Washington

“It’s just like panic selling,” said Nobuhiko Kuramochi, head of investment information at Mizuho Securities Co. in Tokyo. “The equity markets are pricing in concerns over a slowdown in the global economy and a downward revision in corporate earnings in advance. Some investors are reducing their exposure to equities in their portfolio” by increasing cash or bonds.

Japan’s benchmark 10-year bond yield slipped to zero percent for the first time since September 2017, while the yen advanced for an eighth day, it’s longest rising streak since March 2017, as investors sought haven.

Equities in Shanghai dropped, despite plans by policy makers to improve financing for the private sector and implement tax cuts. PetroChina Co. led the decline after crude plummeted.

Markets may be overreacting, Japan’s Finance Minister Taro Aso said, adding that he’s not overly worried. Still, an emergency margin call was triggered for the nation’s index futures.

Israeli stocks suffered their worst four-day plunge in a decade after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government fell apart, sparking an early general election. The political upheaval added to concern over Ireland’s $1.8 billion tax assessment for Perrigo Co.

These are the main moves in markets:

Stocks

– The Nikkei 225 Index declined 5 percent to close at 19,155.74

– The Shanghai Composite Index declined 0.9 percent to 2,504.819

– Israel’s TA-35 Index retreated as much as 2.8 percent as of 12:10 p.m. in Tel Aviv

– Most major indexes in the Middle East fell

Currencies

– The Japanese yen rose as much as 0.4 percent to 110.00 per dollar, the strongest level since August

– The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index added 0.1 percent after dropping 0.4 percent on Monday

– The Chinese yuan advanced 0.2 percent

Bonds

– Japan’s 10-year bond yield pared a decline, and is down three basis points

– The benchmark yield in China also dropped 3 basis points, the most in two weeks

Commodities

– Gold was steady at $1,268.54 an ounce, after rising by as much as 1.1 percent on Monday to its highest since June

– Chinese oil futures fell by the daily limit from Monday’s settlement price to 351.6 yuan a barrel in Shanghai

Pubblicato in: Cina, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Problemia Energetici

Cina. In funzione a Taishan il primo reattore nucleare Epr.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-12-24.

Taishan 001

La Cina ha un enorme bisogno di energia sicura a costi contenuti e, soprattutto, non dipendente da forniture estere.

La Cina ha già in opera un grandioso piano di costruzione di centrali nucleari.

Cina. Centrali elettriche nucleari. 37 reattori attivi, 60 in costruzione, 179 programmati.

Nucleare, la Cina raggiunge la Russia al quarto posto mondiale per numero di reattori

«Gli Stati Uniti sono al primo posto con un centinaio di reattori nucleari operativi, seguiti dalla Francia con 58 e dal Giappone con 43 unità»

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Oltre a reattori sviluppati con tecnologie proprie, la Cina ha numerose collaborazioni internazionali.

Russia – Cina. Accordo per costruire reattori nucleari di nuova generazione.

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Il Progetto Epr.

«The EPR is a third generation pressurised water reactor (PWR) design. It has been designed and developed mainly by Framatome (part of Areva between 2001 and 2017) and Électricité de France (EDF) in France, and Siemens in Germany. In Europe this reactor design was called European Pressurised Reactor, and the internationalised name was Evolutionary Power Reactor, but it is now simply named EPR.

The first two EPR units, at Olkiluoto in Finland and Flamanville in France, are both facing costly construction delays (to at least 2020). Construction commenced on two Chinese units at Taishan in 2009 and 2010. Taishan 1 achieved criticality on 6 June 2018. Taishan 2 is expected to begin operation in 2019. Two units at Hinkley Point in the United Kingdom received final approval in September 2016 and are expected to be completed by 2025.

EDF has acknowledged severe difficulties in building the EPR design. In September 2015 EDF stated that the design of a “New Model” EPR was being worked on, which will be easier and cheaper to build.»

Il grande problema dei reattori Epr è costituto dai costi di costruzione, che li rendono ad oggi più una scommessa sul futuro piuttosto che un’opzione al momento economicamente competitiva.

D’altra parte però una nazione grande quanto un intero continente deve differenziare le tipologie di reattori in uso e può tollerare la conseguente disparità di costi unitari.

Da notare infine che la China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) è entrata nel progetto al 75% rilevando anche una parte di brevetti e know-how. Nei fatti, se è vero che il progetto iniziale sia europeo, si dovrebbe ammettere che questa installazione funzionante sia a prevalente tecnologia cinese.

Si potrebbe essere facili profeti nel prognosticare che tra non molto tempo tutte le tecnologie nucleari saranno passate in mano a russi e cinesi, con tutte le conseguenze del caso.

Gli europei avevano fatto cospicui investimenti nel nucleare, poi virtualmente abbandonato per motivi di ideologie politiche. Scelte gravi e pesanti e, purtroppo, le colpe dei padri ricadranno sui figli.


Reuters. 2018-12-14. China launches world’s first EPR nuclear project in Taishan

BEIJING (Reuters) – The world’s first third-generation “Evolutionary Power Reactor” (EPR) has gone into operation at Taishan in China’s Guangdong province, the French and Chinese developers behind the project announced on Friday.

The 1,750-megawatt EPR, formerly known as the “European Pressurised Reactor” and designed by France’s Areva, completed a 168-hour trial run on Thursday evening, said state-owned China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN).

Its commercial launch can be “a source of inspiration” for other next-generation reactors, Guo Limin, general manager of the Taishan Nuclear Power Joint Venture Company, said at a press briefing in Beijing.

The technology is also being deployed in France, Finland and the China-invested Hinkley Point C project in Britain. It was connected to China’s power grid on a trial basis for the first time in June.

The Taishan nuclear project is 70 percent-owned by CGN, with Electricite de France (EDF) controlling the rest. Areva, designer of the new reactor, is now known as Framatome, which is owned 75.5 percent by EDF.

Construction on two EPR units began at Taishan in 2009 with the first originally scheduled to be completed in 2013, but the design has been beset by a series of technical hitches and big cost overruns in China and elsewhere.

Taishan’s second unit is expected to go into full operation in the fourth quarter of 2019. Guo said construction was still ongoing and remained within the expected timeframe.

The EPR’s main foreign rival, the AP1000 designed by U.S.-based Westinghouse, has also made its global debut in China this year after a four-year construction delay.

The two models were originally expected to play a big role in China’s ambitious nuclear reactor building plans, but the hold-ups mean they must now compete with Russia’s VVER-1200 design, as well as China’s home-grown “Hualong One” brand.

Fabrice Fourcade, EDF’s chief representative in China, said the firm would be “very happy” to build more EPRs in China but this would depend on CGN and the Chinese government.

Though China aims to bring total installed nuclear power capacity to 58 gigawatts by the end of 2020 and have another 30 GW under construction, it has not given the go-ahead for any new conventional reactor projects in around three years.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Stati Uniti

Recessione. La parola che nessuno vorrebbe leggere o sentire.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-12-06.

2018-12-06__DJI__001

«US stocks continue to fall.»

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«The world’s largest futures exchange, CME Group, had to repeatedly halt trading in US stock futures for brief periods this morning because of violent price moves, in an unusual intervention that has stunned traders.»

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«US stock futures reopened this morning in Asia after an unscheduled closure to mark the funeral of former President George H.W. Bush on Wednesday. Tuesday’s trade saw Wall Street selling off heavily, with the key indices down around 3% and the Dow down 800 points.»

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«It was during this opening in trade that CME Group intervened to manage the volatile trading activity, putting a stop to algorithms closing orders.»

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«According to Bloomberg, markets are unsure what caused the move, with some speculating that it may have been sparked by an accidental “fat finger” trade.»

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La parola che nessuno vorrebbe leggere o sentire se ne sta mesta in un canto, sicura che presto o tardi sarà sulla bocca di tutti.

Il mondo è pieno di liquidità incerte ed insicure, alla disperata ricerca di un posto ove potersi indovare al sicuro. Ma le banche centrali negli ultimi anni hanno stampato con sublime levità una tale massa di carta che non si sa più dove metterla.

Quanto vale?

Tanto, oppure poco e nulla.

Dipende solo dalla percezione che ne hanno coloro che trattano simili cose.

Il quadro di un pittore vale in ragione di quanto la gente sia disposta a pagare per averlo: oggi tanto, domani poco o nulla.

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Si faccia però attenzione a non confondere mai le cause con gli effetti.

Non è la politica di Mr Trump che turba i sistemi economici: è stata la loro intrinseca debolezza a portare alla presidenza Mr Trump.


Bbc. 2018-12-05. US shares stumble

US shares saw some pretty hefty falls on Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both fell more than 3%.

“There are real concerns about what might be happening in the US economy,” said Sophie Kilvert, senior investment manager at Seven Investment Management.

Movements in the bond market have some investors asking if a recession is on the way, she said.

Also, shares in financial firms were hit after Jamie Dimon, the boss of JP Morgan said sales at his bank would be more or less flat this year.

US financial markets are closed on Wednesday to mark the death of former US President George HW Bush.


Business Insider. 2018-12-06. Trading in US stock futures had to be halted after violent moves, and markets are spooked

The world’s largest futures exchange, CME Group, had to repeatedly halt trading in US stock futures for brief periods this morning because of violent price moves, in an unusual intervention that has stunned traders.

US stock futures reopened this morning in Asia after an unscheduled closure to mark the funeral of former President George H.W. Bush on Wednesday. Tuesday’s trade saw Wall Street selling off heavily, with the key indices down around 3% and the Dow down 800 points.

When futures re-opened in the Asian trading day on Thursday, stock futures plunged again, falling up to 1.9%. (They soon recovered and a short time ago were down just over 1%.)

It was during this opening in trade that CME Group intervened to manage the volatile trading activity, putting a stop to algorithms closing orders.

The price action caused several CME “Velocity Logic” events, which are triggers to halt futures trading when price movements move too far, or too fast in a given direction.

CME announced this morning that it intervened to prevent steeper falls in US equity futures.

A note from an institutional clearing desk in Sydney sent to traders and seen by Business Insider said:

CME experienced multiple Velocity Logic events from the open in Equity futures today. It caused several 10 second pauses where limit orders were accepted but market/IOC orders were rejected causing multiple algo slices to get rejected. The pauses allow participants to enter the market preventing even harder moves.

According to Bloomberg, markets are unsure what caused the move, with some speculating that it may have been sparked by an accidental “fat finger” trade.

Elsewhere in markets, news broke overnight that Wanzhou Meng, the Chief Financial Officer (CFO) of privately-owned Chinese tech giant Huawei, was arrested in Canada at the request of the US and now faces extradition.

According to reports, she was arrested on suspicion of violating the US’s trade sanctions on Iran.

A short time ago, Asian stock markets were trading lower across the board in midday trade, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index down more than 2%.

The moves were part of a broader risk-off tone in Asia, with gold higher while the safe-haven Yen has performed strongly against all major currency pairs.

Pubblicato in: Economia e Produzione Industriale, Geopolitica Mondiale, Medio Oriente, Problemia Energetici

Qatar. Esce dall’Opec e si concentra sul gas naturale.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-12-03.

2018-12-03__Qatar__001

«Qatar has announced it is pulling out of the Opec oil producers’ cartel, just days before the group meets in Vienna»

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«Qatar produces around 650,000 of barrels of oil a day, compared with Russia’s 11.37 million barrels a day.»

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«The Gulf state, which joined Opec in 1961, said it would leave the cartel in January and would focus on gas production»

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«Qatar, the world’s biggest exporter of liquified natural gas, has been boycotted by some Arab neighbours over allegations that it funds terrorism»

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«Opec is expected to cut oil supply at this week’s meeting»

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«We don’t have great potential (in oil), we are very realistic. Our potential is gas»

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«Expectations are high that there will be agreement on output after Russian President Vladmir Putin said at the weekend that he and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman “have agreed to extend our agreement” to limit production»

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Il braccio di ferro è evidente.

Da una parte i paesi produttori vorrebbero poter spuntare prezzi alti, e quindi sono favorevoli ad una riduzione della estrazione; dall’altra parte i paesi consumatori vorrebbero poter ottenere i prodotti petroliferi a basso costo.

Recentemente Mr Trump aveva constato come un basso costo del petrolio fosse equivalente negli Stati Uniti ad una riduzione delle tasse, ma i produttori avevano obiettato che il ragionamento era corretto, ma che loro non erano sicuramente di accordo nel dover pagarne il costo per conto degli gli americani.

Per quanto riguarda il mercato del gas naturale liquefatto, gli osservatori fanno notare che, essendo gli americani degli esportatori, avrebbero tutto da guadagnare da prezzi elevati. Da questo punto di vista il Qatar si sarebbe trovato un socio di non poco peso.


Bbc. 2018-12-03. Qatar pulls out of Opec oil producers’ cartel

Qatar has announced it is pulling out of the Opec oil producers’ cartel, just days before the group meets in Vienna.

The Gulf state, which joined Opec in 1961, said it would leave the cartel in January and would focus on gas production.

Qatar, the world’s biggest exporter of liquified natural gas, has been boycotted by some Arab neighbours over allegations that it funds terrorism.

Opec is expected to cut oil supply at this week’s meeting.

Explaining Qatar’s decision, Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi said: “We don’t have great potential (in oil), we are very realistic. Our potential is gas.”

He said geopolitics was not factor in the decision.

Since June 2017, Qatar has been cut off by some of its powerful Arab neighbours, particularly Saudi Arabia, over its alleged support for terrorism.

Production cuts

Qatar’s withdrawal from Opec may not have any lasting impact on the price of oil as it a relatively small producer.

But this week’s meeting of Opec is being closely watched by markets for any agreement over cuts to production after the oil price fell sharply in November.

Expectations are high that there will be agreement on output after Russian President Vladmir Putin said at the weekend that he and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman “have agreed to extend our agreement” to limit production.

Russia is not a member of Opec but is the biggest oil producer outside the group.

Mr Putin’s comments pushed oil prices higher. In early trading on Monday, Brent crude was $2.60 higher at $62.06 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate oil rose $2.42 to $53.35 a barrel.

However, prices are down sharply from September when Brent crude was at $81.16 a barrel.

Qatar produces around 650,000 of barrels of oil a day, compared with Russia’s 11.37 million barrels a day.