Pubblicato in: Cina, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Cina. La Guerra del ferro. 98 Usd per tonnellata.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-05-25.

2019-05-24__Ferro__001

Il ferro è il metallo più abbondante all’interno della Terra, costituendo il 16% della massa del nostro pianeta: non lo si rinviene mai allo stato elementare metallico, ma sempre sotto forma di composti in cui è presente allo stato ossidato.

Industrialmente il ferro è estratto dai suoi minerali, principalmente l’ematite (Fe2O3) e la magnetite (Fe3O4), per riduzione con carbonio in una fornace di riduzione a temperature di circa 2000 °C.

Nel 2000 sono state prodotte nel mondo circa 1,1 miliardi di tonnellate di minerale di ferro per un valore commerciale stimato di circa 250 miliardi di dollari, da cui si sono ricavate 572 milioni di tonnellate di ghisa di prima fusione.

L’estrazione di minerali di ferro avviene in 48 paesi, ma il 70% della produzione complessiva è coperto dai primi cinque: Cina, Brasile, Australia, Russia e India.

Nel 2017, l’Australia ha estratto 880 milioni di tonnellate di ferro minerale, il Brasile 440 milioni, la Cina 340, l’India 190, la Russia 100. La Cina è il principale consumatore mondiale di ferro estrattivo.

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2019-05-24__Ferro__002

È del tutto intuitivo che il prezzo del ferro estrattivo condizioni alla fine quelle delle leghe derivate, acciaio in primis. Tuttavia il tutto è bilanciato dal rapporto domanda / offerta: ed in questo mercato la domanda cinese nei fatti condiziona i prezzi.

«While iron ore prices have surged to a five-year high above $100 a tonne, not all producers of the steel-making ingredient are sharing in the bounty»

*

«It’s no surprise that Brazil’s Vale is struggling. After all, it is largely the reason for iron ore’s stellar run, with the spot price of 62 percent ore delivered to China, as assessed by Argus Media, ending at $100.65 a tonne on Tuesday, up 38.1% this year»

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«It was the fatal tailings dam burst at Vale’s Córrego do Feijão iron ore mine, near the town of Brumadinho, on Jan. 25 that closed that mine and several others in the subsequent weeks as safety checks were made»

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«This dramatically cut exports from the world’s number two shipper of iron ore, with the situation being made worse by a cyclone disrupting exports in March from Australia, the world’s biggest iron ore producer»

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Se il grafico ad un anno evidenzia bene la rapidità del passaggio dai 35 Usd / tonnellata ai 98 Usd / tonnellata, il grafico a dieci anni ci ricorda dei tempi quando il prezzo del ferro estrattivo aveva raggiunto i 180 Usd.

Le industrie estrattive sono state sottoposte a grandi variazioni dei prezzi che alla fine si sono risolte nella quasi messa fuori mercato di quelle che non erano sufficientemente robuste da poter reggere simili colpi.

Posto che il principale utilizzatore abbia costituito adeguate scorte di ferro estrattivo, la domanda assolve anche un ruolo eminentemente politico. Infatti, un subitaneo calo della domanda può essere collocato con un timing che coincida con il periodo di massima debolezza di una certa quale realtà estrattiva e, con essa, dello stato in cui opera.

Nota.

I volumi di ferro estrattivo sono altamente correlati a quelli dell’estrazione del carbone, svolgendo questo ultimo ruolo essenziale nei processi che conducono alla produzione dell’acciaio.


Reuters. 201-05-22. Iron ore is surging, but not all producers are joining the party: Russell

While iron ore prices have surged to a five-year high above $100 a tonne, not all producers of the steel-making ingredient are sharing in the bounty.

It’s no surprise that Brazil’s Vale is struggling. After all, it is largely the reason for iron ore’s stellar run, with the spot price of 62 percent ore delivered to China, as assessed by Argus Media, ending at $100.65 a tonne on Tuesday, up 38.1% this year.

It was the fatal tailings dam burst at Vale’s Córrego do Feijão iron ore mine, near the town of Brumadinho, on Jan. 25 that closed that mine and several others in the subsequent weeks as safety checks were made.

This dramatically cut exports from the world’s number two shipper of iron ore, with the situation being made worse by a cyclone disrupting exports in March from Australia, the world’s biggest iron ore producer.

Vale’s share price has lost 7% in local currency terms this year and is down almost 16% since the dam disaster, reflecting the likely loss of about 75 million tonnes of iron ore sales this year.

But the rapid gain in spot iron ore prices hasn’t lifted all other producers equally, with some outperforming massively and others failing to gain much traction from the higher price.

The standout performer is Fortescue Metals Group, the third-biggest Australian producer, which has gained 119 percent so far this year in local currency terms.

Some of this is catch-up from a poor performance last year, when Fortescue struggled because the lower quality iron ore it mainly produces was out of favor as Chinese steel mills preferred higher grade ore in order to maximize output.

But Fortescue is still up three times more than the spot price of iron ore, something no other major producer even comes close to achieving.

PERFORMANCE DIVERGENCE

Shares in Rio Tinto, the top Australian producer, were at A$101.27 on Tuesday, up 33.7 percent since the end of last year.

It’s also worth noting that when iron ore prices were last at current levels in May 2014, Rio’s share price was only around A$57, showing that the company’s efforts to consistently lower costs have driven increased value.

However, Rio’s Australian competitor BHP Group isn’t performing as well. Its share price has only risen 15.6 percent since the end of last year.

BHP is facing a $5 billion claim over a dam collapse at a joint venture in Brazil in 2015, but that alone would seem unlikely to explain its underperformance against Rio.

BHP does have a more diversified portfolio than Rio, which derives the bulk of its revenue from iron ore, but its petroleum division should be performing well given rising crude oil prices, and coking coal should at least be consistent, given the price of the fuel used in steel-making has been steady this year.

It’s also worth noting that BHP performed better during the previous big rally in iron ore.

Spot iron ore rose by 154 percent between December 2015 and February 2017, and BHP gained 96 percent between its low in January 2016 and a peak in late January 2017.

The story for smaller Australian producers mirrors the mixed performance of their larger peers.

Shares in Grange Resources, a producer of high-grade ore and pellets in Tasmania, have risen 35% since the end of last year, a creditable performance.

But it pales next to the 137% leap for Mount Gibson, which has also no doubt benefited from the re-opening of its high-grade Koolan Island mine in Western Australia state.

While competing companies will always have different dynamics and circumstances, such as debt levels, operating costs and dividend policies, it’s perhaps surprising to find such large variations among the relative performance of iron ore producers.

Iron ore may remain near its current elevated levels given the ongoing supply disruption from Brazil and strong Chinese demand on the back of rising stimulus spending.

If this is the case, it may be possible for some of the underperforming producers to close the gap.

Annunci
Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Unione Europea

Germania. Acquacoltura ittica totale -12.0% a/a. – Destatis.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-05-25.

Destatis__001

«The overall production of fish, mussels and other aquaculture products amounted to 31,900 tonnes. This was a decrease of 12.0% from 2017»

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«The production of mussels totalled nearly 13,700 tonnes and was also down from 2017 by roughly 19%.»

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«In 2018, roughly 18,100 tonnes of fish were produced in just under 2,600 aquaculture businesses in Germany»

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«The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that this was a decline of approximately 1,100 tonnes compared with one year earlier (-5.9%).»

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I bollettini statistici della Germania stanno sempre più somigliando ai lunghi elenchi dei caduti in battaglia durante la guerra mondiale.

Germania. Colza -38%. Meno etica e più acquedotti. – Destatis

Germania. Destatis. ‘On an annual basis electricity prices increased by 10.8%’.

Germania. Ordini Industria. Febbraio -8.1% a/a. Marzo -6.0% a/a. – Destatis.

Germania. Licenze edili ad uso abitativo -2.8% a/a. – Destatis.

Germania. Produzione auto -4.1%, insolvenze +5.7%.

Germania. Sommovimenti di piazza per il caro-affitti.

Germania. VW e Ford annunciano decine di migliaia di licenziamenti e chiusure.

Questi sono solo alcuni esempi: poi ci sarebbe tutto il resto.

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Ciascuno è libero, ovviamente, di interpretare i dati a piacer suo, ma i numeri restano nella loro crudezza.

La produzione dei muscoli crollata del -19%, quella globale dei prodotti ittici del -12.0%.

Ma al calo della produzione consegue il calo del fatturato. Al calo del fatturato consegue una riduzione del gettito fiscale e, poi, una contrazione dei posti di lavoro.


Destatis. 2019-05-23. Fish production in aquafarming down 5.9% in 2018

Pressrelease #195 from May 23, 2019

WIESBADEN – In 2018, roughly 18,100 tonnes of fish were produced in just under 2,600 aquaculture businesses in Germany. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that this was a decline of approximately 1,100 tonnes compared with one year earlier (-5.9%). The production of mussels totalled nearly 13,700 tonnes and was also down from 2017 by roughly 19%. In the same period the amounts of roe and caviar produced rose by approximately 3.7% to well above 75 tonnes. The overall production of fish, mussels and other aquaculture products amounted to 31,900 tonnes. This was a decrease of 12.0% from 2017.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Unione Europea

Germania. Buone notizie. Export 118 mld, import 95.6 mld.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-05-12.

Destatis__001

Finalmente, dopo mesi di report negativi, Destatis può riportare dati confortevoli per la Germania e, con essa, per l’Unione Europea.

«Export. 118.3 billion euros. +1.5% on the previous month (calendar and seasonally adjusted) +1.9% on the same month a year earlier»

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«Import. 95.6 billion euros. +0.4% on the previous month (calendar and seasonally adjusted)  +4.5% on the same month a year earlier»

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«Germany exported goods to the value of 118.3 billion euros and imported goods to the value of 95.6 billion euros in March 2019.»

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«Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that German exports were up by 1.9% and imports by 4.5% in March 2019 year on year. After calendar and seasonal adjustment, exports increased by 1.5% and imports by 0.4% compared with February 2019»

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«In March 2019, Germany exported goods to the value of 70.5 billion euros to the Member States of the European Union (EU), while it imported goods to the value of 56.6 billion euros from those countries.»

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«Compared with March 2018, exports to the EU countries increased by 2.5%, and imports from those countries by 5.5%»

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«Goods to the value of 44.5 billion euros (+0.5%) were exported to the Euro area countries in March 2019, while the value of the goods imported from those countries was 36.9 billion euros (+5.6%)»

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«Exports of goods to countries outside the European Union (third countries) amounted to 47.8 billion euros in March 2019, while imports from those countries totalled 39.0 billion euros.»

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Se è vero che su base annua le importazioni sono aumentate del +4.5% mentre le esportazioni sono variate del +1.9%, sarebbe altrettanto da constatare come i valori assoluti rendano conto di un margine più che ragionevole.

Questi dati ripropongono però un altro problema.

Con un export di 70.5 mld verso i paesi dell’Unione Europea, la Germania sta diventando sempre più dipendente da essa. La buona salute economica dei  paesi membri è quindi non solo di loro interesse, ma anche e, forse, soprattutto, della Germania stessa.


Destatis. 2019-05-10. German exports in March 2019: +1.9% on March 2018

Exports, March 2019

118.3 billion euros

+1.5% on the previous month (calendar and seasonally adjusted)

+1.9% on the same month a year earlier

Imports, March 2019

95.6 billion euros

+0.4% on the previous month (calendar and seasonally adjusted)

+4.5% on the same month a year earlier

Foreign trade balance, March 2019:

22.7 billion euros

20.0 billion euros (calendar and seasonally adjusted)

Current account according to calculations of the Deutsche Bundesbank, March 2019

30.2 billion euros

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WIESBADEN – Germany exported goods to the value of 118.3 billion euros and imported goods to the value of 95.6 billion euros in March 2019. Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that German exports were up by 1.9% and imports by 4.5% in March 2019 year on year. After calendar and seasonal adjustment, exports increased by 1.5% and imports by 0.4% compared with February 2019.

The foreign trade balance showed a surplus of 22.7 billion euros in March 2019. In March 2018, the surplus amounted to 24.6 billion euros. In calendar and seasonally adjusted terms, the foreign trade balance recorded a surplus of 20.0 billion euros in March 2019.

According to provisional results of the Deutsche Bundesbank, the current account of the balance of payments showed a surplus of 30.2 billion euros in March 2019, which takes into account the balances of trade in goods including supplementary trade items (+24.9 billion euros), services (-0.9 billion euros), primary income (+9.9 billion euros) and secondary income (-3.6 billion euros). In March 2018, the German current account showed a surplus of 29.4 billion euros.

In March 2019, Germany exported goods to the value of 70.5 billion euros to the Member States of the European Union (EU), while it imported goods to the value of 56.6 billion euros from those countries. Compared with March 2018, exports to the EU countries increased by 2.5%, and imports from those countries by 5.5%. Goods to the value of 44.5 billion euros (+0.5%) were exported to the Euro area countries in March 2019, while the value of the goods imported from those countries was 36.9 billion euros (+5.6%). In March 2019, goods to the value of 26.0 billion euros (+6.0%) were dispatched to EU countries not belonging to the Euro area, while the value of the goods which arrived from those countries was 19.7 billion euros (+5.3%).

Exports of goods to countries outside the European Union (third countries) amounted to 47.8 billion euros in March 2019, while imports from those countries totalled 39.0 billion euros. Compared with March 2018, exports to third countries increased by 1.1% and imports from those countries by 3.1%.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Geopolitica Mondiale, Problemia Energetici

Cina. Import petrolifero salito a 10.68 milioni di barili al giorno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-05-12.

Escher__Il_Cubo_

Lo sviluppo economico cinese non sarebbe stato possibile senza la possibilità di acquisire prodotti energetici a costi contenuti.

Se questa affermazione è vera per il passato, altrettanto lo sarebbe per il futuro: senza energia a basso costo sarebbe impossibile ogni qualsivoglia produzione industriale, tanto meno poi incrementarla.

Sarebbe impossibile comprendere la complessa politica estera cinese senza tener presente quanto ambisca a mantenere rapporti cordiali con i paesi produttori di petrolio.

«China imported 43.73 million tons of crude in April, or 10.68 million barrels a day»

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«That’s the most in figures going back to 2010»

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«The record purchases are mostly due to large volumes of Iranian oil arriving in China before the expiration of the waivers»

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«An estimated 1.7 million barrels a day of refining capacity was taken offline for maintenance in April, the most during the March-May peak season»

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«While no country-by-country breakdown of the Chinese figures for April is available yet, observed crude exports from Iran to China rose to 806,452 barrels a day in March»

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«It normally takes 22 days for Iranian cargoes to arrive in China, so shipments are likely to drop significantly for May arrivals as observed exports from the Islamic Republic fell 67 percent in April from March»

* * * * * * * *

Al di à delle frasi di rito su clima ed alternative, superenfatizzate dai media occidentali, la Cina ha già approntato grandi piani energetici.

Cina. Centrali elettriche nucleari. 37 reattori attivi, 60 in costruzione, 179 programmati.

«37 operating nuclear power reactors: 33,657 MWe»

*

«60 nuclear reactors under construction: 68,7006 MWe»

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«179 nuclear reactors proposed: 205,000 MWe»

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Gli Usa costruiscono centrali nucleari. e la Cina esporta l’energia in Pakistan

«La Westinghouse Electric Corporation è una società leader nel settore dell’energia atomica con sede in Pennsylvania che ha ideato il reattore AP1000, l’unica unità nucleare al mondo di terza generazione ad acqua pressurizzata (PWR), il cui primo esemplare ha iniziato a funzionare nella provincia di Zhejiang, sita nella Cina orientale, e più precisamente a Sanmen.

Mercoledì 25 aprile [2018], infatti, è cominciato il caricamento del combustibile atomico del reattore numero 1 di quello che sarà un impianto rivoluzionario in quanto a dotazioni di sicurezza; caricamento che sarà completato entro l’estate e che porterà alla totale attivazione della centrale entro la fine di quest’anno.

La centrale di Sanmen avrà una potenza complessiva di 7,5 Gw e fa parte di un progetto della Spic, la State Power Investment Corporation ovvero una delle prime 5 compagnie cinesi nel campo delle costruzioni energetiche, che prevede la costruzione di altre 3 centrali di questo tipo: un’altra sempre nel distretto di Zhejiang, e due ad Haiyang, nella provincia di Shandong.»

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È in ogni caso evidente come lo sviluppo della motorizzazione, sia a scopi commerciali sia a scopi familiari, necessiti di derivati distillati dal petrolio, mentre il riscaldamento urbano dipende in larga quota dal gas naturale.

Fatti questi che dovrebbero rendere intelleggibile la geopolitica energetica mondiale cinesa, a partire dai suoi rapporti con l’Iran.


Bloomberg. 2019-05-08. Chinese Oil Imports Surge to Record as Iranian Crude Stockpiled

China’s crude imports climbed to a record last month as a drive to stock up on Iranian oil before exemptions from U.S. sanctions expired on May 2 offset the effect of maintenance shutdowns by local refiners.

– China imported 43.73 million tons of crude in April, or 10.68 million barrels a day, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data from General Administration of Customs in Beijing. That’s the most in figures going back to 2010.

Key Insights.

– The record purchases are mostly due to large volumes of Iranian oil arriving in China before the expiration of the waivers, according to Michal Meidan, an analyst with London-based industry consultant Energy Aspects Ltd. An estimated 1.7 million barrels a day of refining capacity was taken offline for maintenance in April, the most during the March-May peak season.

– The start-up of a mega refinery at Dalian by Hengli Group also boosted imports, according to Li Li, an analyst at Shanghai-based commodities researcher ICIS-China.

– While no country-by-country breakdown of the Chinese figures for April is available yet, observed crude exports from Iran to China rose to 806,452 barrels a day in March, the highest in six months, according to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.

– It normally takes 22 days for Iranian cargoes to arrive in China, so shipments are likely to drop significantly for May arrivals as observed exports from the Islamic Republic fell 67 percent in April from March.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Unione Europea

Germania. Ordini Industria. Febbraio -8.1% a/a. Marzo -6.0% a/a. – Destatis.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-05-08.

Destatis__001

«Manufacturing. March.  -6.0% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)»

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«Manufacturing. February. -8.1% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)»

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«Domestic orders decreased by 4.2% …. in March 2019 on the previous month»

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La Germania sta attraversando una fase di stagnazione economica che, stando a codesti dati, sembrerebbe essere davvero severa. Al calo degli ordine consegue un calo della produzione. Al calo della produzione consegue un calo del fatturato. Al calor del fatturato conseguono sia il calo delle tasse versate allo stato sia anche licenziamenti. Insomma, non si dovrebbero prendere codesti dati alla leggera.

Germania.Costo del Lavoro. – Destatis.

Germania. Di nuovo sul costo del lavoro. – Deutsche Welle.

Germania. Prezzi dell’import +1.7% a/a. – Destatis.

Germania. Destatis. Costruzioni -2.0% a/a.

Germania. Destatis. ‘On an annual basis electricity prices increased by 10.8%’.

Germania. Destatis. Ordini all’industria ancora giù, -0.7%, dall’estero -0.9%.

Germania. Dati sempre più allarmanti sulla povertà.

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Non osiamo immaginare cosa possa succedere dopo che si saranno tenute le elezioni europee e  quelle dei tre Länder in programma per questo anno.

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Destatis ha rilasciato il nuovo Report

Manufacturing in March 2019: New orders +0.6% seasonally adjusted on the previous month

March 2019 (provisional): new orders in manufacturing

+0.6% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)

-6.0% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)

February 2019 (revised): new orders in manufacturing

-4.0% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)

-8.1% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)

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WIESBADEN – Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reports that price-adjusted new orders in manufacturing had increased in March 2019 a seasonally and calendar adjusted 0.6% on the previous month. For February 2019, revision of the preliminary outcome resulted in a decrease of 4.0% compared with January 2019 (provisional: -4.2%). Price-adjusted new orders without major orders in manufacturing had decreased in March 2019 a seasonally and calendar adjusted 1.9% on the previous month.

Domestic orders decreased by 4.2% and foreign orders rose by 4.2% in March 2019 on the previous month. New orders from the euro area were up 8.6%, new orders from other countries increased 1.4% compared to February 2019.

In March 2019 the manufacturers of intermediate goods saw new orders fall by 1.5% compared with February 2019. The manufacturers of capital goods showed increases of 1.1% on the previous month. For consumer goods, an increase in new orders of 6.4% was recorded.

Turnover -0.2% seasonally adjusted on the previous month

The price-adjusted turnover in manufacturing in March 2019 was down a seasonally and calendar adjusted 0.2% on the previous month. In February 2019, the corrected figure showed a decrease of 0.9% to January 2019 (provisional: -1.1%).

The data shown here on new orders and turnover are based on the volume index of manufacturing, seasonally and calendar adjusted by means of X13 JDemetra+. (The underlying mathematical-statistical method is not fundamentally different from the previously applied method X-12-ARIMA.)

New orders and turnover are covered and evaluated in accordance with the Classification of Economic Activities, 2008 edition (WZ 2008). New orders are covered only in selected economic branches of manufacturing.

Pubblicato in: Economia e Produzione Industriale, Energie Alternative, Ideologia liberal, Senza categoria

Svezia. Olimpiadi in forse per carenza produzione energia. – Bloomberg

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-05-07.

2019-05-05__Sweden__001

«Global trade wars and weakening export markets are not the only potential dampers on Sweden’s growth»

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«There’s also a homegrown problem: a lack of power capacity.»

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«The dire situation stems from the closing of the nation’s oldest reactors and a shift to wind at a time when the grid is already struggling to keep up with demand in major cities»

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«The shortage, which impacts the nation’s main urban areas, is threatening everything from the rollout of a 5G network in the capital to investments in giant data halls and new subway lines»

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«It could even derail Stockholm’s bid for the 2026 Winter Olympics»

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«Citizens and companies are worried, irritated and even angry, …. How could this situation arise in the engineering nation of Sweden?»

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«The answer is a very ambitious green agenda. Sweden is halfway through a plan to replace the output from four reactors in the industrial south with thousands of wind turbines in the north»

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«abundance of carbon-free power from hydro, nuclear and wind has attracted billions of dollars in the past decade»

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Il problema è semplicissimo.

Come si conviene ai liberal socialisti, l’ideologia impone il passaggio dal nucleare e dal carbone alle energie alternative.

Tralasciamo volutamente i problemi di costo, che però per un’economia quasi stagnante potrebbero essere non da poco.

Il sud della Svezia è la zona ad alta concentrazione industriale, e quindi richiede energia nelle ore lavorative. Non a caso le centrali atomiche sono locate nel sud della Svezia, così come quelle a carbone ed a gas naturale.

Ma al sud i venti sono deboli, capricciosi ed incerti: senza vento non si genera corrente elettrica.

Gli svedesi hanno quindi optato per mettere gli impianti eolici nel nord del paese. Le turbine in grado di lavorare a basse temperature sono costose, sicuramente sì, e richiedono anche grandi manutenzioni, ma cosa non si immolerebbe sull’altare delle energie alternative.

Resta il problema, a quanto sembrerebbe alquanto scotomizzato dagli ingegneri progettisti, di come poter portare l’energia prodotta al nord fino al sud industrializzato.

*

Energia. Il problema degli elettrodotti a lunga distanza. Le dissipazioni.

«First, electricity travels on long-distance, high-voltage transmission lines, often miles and miles across country. The voltage in these lines can be hundreds of thousands of volts. You don’t want to mess with these lines.»

*

«Why so much voltage? To answer this question, we need to review some high school physics, namely Ohm’s law. Ohm’s law describes how the amount of power in electricity and its characteristics – voltage, current and resistance – are related. It boils down to this: Losses scale with the square of a wire’s current. That square factor means a tiny jump in current can cause a big bump in losses. Keeping voltage high lets us keep current, and losses, low»

*

«Energy lost in transmission and distribution: About 6% – 2% in transmission and 4% in distribution – or 69 trillion Btus in the U.S. in 2013»

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Non si è infatti “liberi” di poter costruire una centrale elettrica dove si voglia: occorre piazzare gli impianti ove i venti siano persistenti e non troppo veloci. In altri termini, le sedi di produzione sono quindi obbligate.

Questo comporta necessariamente linee di trasmissione anche molto lunghe: in taluni casi si parla di migliaia di kilometri. La dissipazione in questi casi aumenta a dismisura.

Si pensi soltanto al trasferimento di energia dal Mecklenburg-Vorpommern al Bayern: sono circa 700 kilometri.

La dissipazione è enorme: oltre il cinquanta per cento.

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Siamo estasiati che gli ingegneri svedesi abbiano riscoperto la legge di Ohm.

Ma saremo ancor più esaltati quando avranno studiato un minimo di contabilità dei costi: rifare il grid svedese costerà non uno ma tre occhi delle testa.

Gli svedesi avrebbero un gran bisogno di passare uno dei loro famosi inverni al buio e senza riscaldamento ed acqua calda.


Bloomberg. 2019-05-03. Sweden’s Lack of Electricity Capacity Is Threatening Growth

A shift toward renewables is overwhelming the nation’s grid, leaving a potential Olympic Games in 2026 relying on reserve generators.  

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Global trade wars and weakening export markets are not the only potential dampers on Sweden’s growth. There’s also a homegrown problem: a lack of power capacity. 

The dire situation stems from the closing of the nation’s oldest reactors and a shift to wind at a time when the grid is already struggling to keep up with demand in major cities. The shortage, which impacts the nation’s main urban areas, is threatening everything from the rollout of a 5G network in the capital to investments in giant data halls and new subway lines. It could even derail Stockholm’s bid for the 2026 Winter Olympics.

It’s a stark change from the decades of cheap, surplus electricity that propelled the Nordic region’s biggest economy into one of the richest and most industrialized nations in the world. Now, electricity supplies in urban areas can’t keep up and that could exacerbate a slowdown already impacted by global uncertainty and Brexit.

“Citizens and companies are worried, irritated and even angry,” said Jonas Kamleh, a strategist for the City of Malmo, the nation’s third biggest. “How could this situation arise in the engineering nation of Sweden?”

The answer is a very ambitious green agenda. Sweden is halfway through a plan to replace the output from four reactors in the industrial south with thousands of wind turbines in the north. But grid connections, some dating back to the 1950s, aren’t up to scratch so the power isn’t shipped to where it’s really needed. And to make matters worse, city demand is surging at a faster-than-expected pace because of the electrification of everything from transport to heating.

The capacity issues could hit an economy already heading south after years of strong growth buoyed by household spending and exports. The Swedish National Institute of Economic Research said last month the economy is slowing and forecast GDP growth of just 1.5 percent this year compared with 2.3 percent in 2018.

The abundance of carbon-free power from hydro, nuclear and wind has attracted billions of dollars in the past decade from some of the world’s biggest companies from Amazon.com Inc. to Facebook Inc. and Microsoft Corp. With the major urban areas out of bounds, it will be harder to attract the same level of investment in the future. 

“A lot of businesses are rather energy-intensive and if we do not have enough capacity there is a potential chance it will impact long-term growth,” said Ake Gustafsson, senior economist at Swedbank AB. “Computer giants such as Amazon are global companies that can place their data centers anywhere.”

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Senza categoria, Unione Europea

Germania. Di nuovo sul costo del lavoro. – Deutsche Welle.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-05-06.

2019-05-04__Germania_Costo_Lavoro__001

«Germania.Costo del Lavoro. – Destatis.

– Mining and quarrying, salito dai 29.5 del 1998 ai 52.9 del 2018: variazione percentuale +79.32%.

 – Electricity, gas, steam, air conditioning supply, salito dai 31.7 del 1998 ai 52.4 del 2018: variazione percentuale +65.30%.

 – Financial and insurance activities, salito dai 31.1 del 1998 ai 53.0 del 2018: variazione percentuale +70.42%.

– Professional, scientific and technical activities,  salito dai 27.8 del 1998 ai 46.1 del 2018: variazione percentuale +65.83%.

– Public Administration, Compulsory Social, salito dai 23.5 del 1998 ai 38.4 del 2018: variazione percentuale +63.40%.»

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Una Germania in piena stagnazione economica, con aziende in fuga ed un sistema bancario sull’orlo del collasso, anche se si è ancora in campagna elettorale, si interroga sullo stato del suo comparto produttivo.

Se la Germania fosse un sistema stagno, tetragono a quanto succeda fuori di esso, il problema del costo del lavoro non si porrebbe. Quando Roma dominava il mondo, senza situazioni estere che avessero potuto contrastarla, poteva fare tutto ciò che le pareva. Sarebbe sufficiente ricordarsi quanto e come si evolsero le leggi sulla schiavitù. Ma quando dovette confrontarsi con i barbari armati ed addestrati alle armi dagli stessi romani, la musica cambiò repentinamente: furono i romani a diventare la forza lavoro. Quelli sopravvissuti, ovviamente.

Il problema del costo del lavoro è politico, e l’intervento della politica droga la libertà del libero mercato.

Deutsche Welle, organo di stampa a matrice e personale liberal socialista, si interroga su questi fatti e circostanze, in modo molto circospetto.

«The average working hour cost €35.00 in Germany, the sixth-highest in the EU»

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«That figure represents a 2.3 percent increase compared to 2017»

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«In the manufacturing sector, an average working hour cost €40.00»

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«For the services sector, an average working hour cost €32.40»

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«In 2018, labor costs in the top group were more than four times higher than the bottom »

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«This convergence of relative labor costs results from the fact that in countries with low labor costs, growth rates have been well above those of countries with already high labor costs for many years»

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Si tenga presente il costo del lavoro è formato in piccola parte dal salario corrisposto al lavoratore: la maggior quota è dovuta agli adempimenti richiesti da leggi, regolamenti e norme.

Poniamoci adesso una domanda.

Supponiamo di avere disponibili il know-how e le risorse finanziarie: si impianterebbe più volentieri uno stabilimento produttivo in Germania, pagando il lavoro 35.0 euro l’ora, oppure si sceglierebbe la Bulgaria, ove il costo del lavoro è 5.3 euro l’ora?

Orbene: questa grafica illustra uno dei principali problemi tedeschi.

La sua competitività sui mercati internazionali dipende in larga quota dal costo del lavoro.

O lo riduce oppure alla fine chiuderà bottega.

Imprese nominalmente tedesche produrranno all’estero, ma quanti restassero in Germania avrebbero severi triboli.


Deutsche Welle. 2019-05-02. Germany’s labor costs above EU average

The average cost of an hour of work in Germany has risen to €35.00, well above the EU’s average. Despite a significant difference between labor costs in eastern and western Europe, the gap is shrinking.

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The German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) on Monday published figures showing a working hour cost 32 percent more in Germany than the EU average in 2018.

The cost of a working hour in 17 countries across the bloc fell below the EU average of €26.60 ($29.69), including in the UK, Spain and Greece.

Germany ranks high among EU countries:

– The average working hour cost €35.00 in Germany, the sixth-highest in the EU.

– That figure represents a 2.3 percent increase compared to 2017.

– In the manufacturing sector, an average working hour cost €40.00.

– For the services sector, an average working hour cost €32.40.

Shrinking gap

Destatis noted that the gap between the EU’s top performers in hourly labor costs and those at the bottom of the list was shrinking.

In 2018, labor costs in the top group were more than four times higher than the bottom. But that gap has shrunk since 2004, when the hourly cost of labor was nearly eight times higher in top-tier countries compared to those in the bottom tier.

“This convergence of relative labor costs results from the fact that in countries with low labor costs, growth rates have been well above those of countries with already high labor costs for many years,” said Destatis.

Eurozone labor costs more

The eurozone average was €30.50, about 15 percent higher than the EU average. The eurozone is an economic and monetary union that brings together 17 EU member states under one currency.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Unione Europea

Germania.Costo del Lavoro. – Destatis.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-05-01.

Destatis__001

Destatis ha rilasciato la Tabella aggiornata al 2018:

Labour costs per hour worked (annual estimate): Germany, years, economic activities.

Pressrelease #164 from April 29, 2019

WIESBADEN – Employers in the German industry and the support services sector paid an average of 35.00 euros per hour worked in 2018. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that Germany ranked sixth within the European Union (EU) in terms of labour cost level, as it did in the previous year. Denmark had the highest labour costs per hour worked (44.70 euros), Bulgaria the lowest (5.30 euros).

Time series on labour costs in Germany in a breakdown by economic branch are available in the GENESIS-Online database under the search word “Jahresschätzung Arbeitskosten”. Further official EU statistics are available under “Europe in Figures“.

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2019-04-30__Germania_Costo_Lavoro__001

– Mining and quarrying, salito dai 29.5 del 1998 ai 52.9 del 2018: variazione percentuale +79.32%.

 – Electricity, gas, steam, air conditioning supply, salito dai 31.7 del 1998 ai 52.4 del 2018: variazione percentuale +65.30%.

 – Financial and insurance activities, salito dai 31.1 del 1998 ai 53.0 del 2018: variazione percentuale +70.42%.

– Professional, scientific and technical activities,  salito dai 27.8 del 1998 ai 46.1 del 2018: variazione percentuale +65.83%.

– Public Administration, Compulsory Social, salito dai 23.5 del 1998 ai 38.4 del 2018: variazione percentuale +63.40%.

Per contro,

– Transportation and storage è salito dai 22.0 del 1998 ai 26.9 del 2018, con una variazione percentuale del +22.27%.

– Education, è salito dai 30.9 del 1998 ai 37.7 del 2018, con una variazione percentuale del +22.01%.

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Nel 1998 il pil procapite tedesco ammontava a 27,580 Usd, per passare poi ai 44,771 Usd di fine 2017, con una variazione percentuale del +62.33%.

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Le disparità di crescita del costo del lavoro nei differenti settori dovrebbero essere evidenti.

Il lavoro nelle cave e nelle miniere è salito nell’ultimo ventennio del +79.32%, ben al di sopra dell’incremento del pil procapite.

Ma settori quali quello finanziario, le professioni e la pubblica amministrazione hanno presentato aumenti del costo del lavoro in linea con le variazioni del pil procapite, segno questo che la produttività è restata virtualmente invariata.

Per quanto riguarda invece i trasporti e l’educazione, il discorso sarebbe alquanto differente. I livelli stipendiali hanno evidenziato dinamiche molto contenute: più che razionalizzazione del lavoro ed aumento della produttività, questo risultato sembrerebbe essere frutto di mera stagnazione retributiva.

Pubblicato in: Economia e Produzione Industriale, Stati Uniti, Trump

USA. Primo Trimestre. Pil cresce del +3.2%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-04-27.

White House Gatto 001

«During the three-month period from January to March, the GDP rose at a 3.2 percent annualized rate, beating most analysts’ expectations of 2.5 percent»

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«It also bested GDPNow, a real-time tracker monitored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, which lowered its forecast to 2.7 percent this week because of weakness in existing-home sales and a drop in residential investment growth»

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«But despite the better-than-expected figure, some analysts suggested the U.S. economy will still decelerate in 2019 and 2020»

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Per comparazione, l’eurozona nel primo trimestre evidenzia una variazione del pil dello +0.2%.

A questo punto dovrebbe sorgere spontanea la domanda del perché mai il sistema economico americano cresca più che bene mentre quello dell’eurozona stia stagnando.

Cercare di capire perché gli altri facciano meglio di noi, e cercare quindi di imitarli, sembrerebbe essere un ragionamento di buon senso.


Fox Business. 2019-04-26. US economic growth rebounds at 3.2 percent pace in first quarter

The U.S. economy grew more quickly than most economists expected during the first quarter of 2019, according to data released Friday by the Commerce Department.

During the three-month period from January to March, the GDP rose at a 3.2 percent annualized rate, beating most analysts’ expectations of 2.5 percent.

It also bested GDPNow, a real-time tracker monitored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, which lowered its forecast to 2.7 percent this week because of weakness in existing-home sales and a drop in residential investment growth.

The economy largely shook off the effects of a five-week long government shutdown — the longest in U.S. history — that White House officials once warned could result in near-zero growth. The standoff was a result of a feud between President Trump and Democratic congressional leaders over funding for a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border.

Disposable income rose $116 billion, or 3 percent, in the first quarter. Overall prices 0.8 percent.

Investors were closely watching the report’s release for signs to dismiss fears of an impending economic recession. Stocks rose on the better-than-expected results in pre-market trading.

We started 2019 with fears that the longest government shutdown in history, along with a softening global growth outlook, would weigh on economic activity in the first quarter,” Michael Reynolds, an investment strategy officer at Glenmede said. “3.2 percent growth is a solid result, suggesting this long, late-stage expansion may be more resilient than feared.

But despite the better-than-expected figure, some analysts suggested the U.S. economy will still decelerate in 2019 and 2020. Although inventories were high — boosting the growth number — Agathe Demarais, the global forecasting director at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said it’s likely to become a drag on growth soon.

Demarais estimated that growth in 2019 will stand at 2.2 percent — a sharp fall from 2.9 percent in 2018. She attributed part of that to the effects of global trade tensions. In 2020, she said growth is expected to fall to 1.7 percent amid softening consumer demand and a less supportive external environment.

“Against this backdrop, we expect the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates stable this year before cutting rates by 50 basis points in 2020,” she said. “This path for monetary policy will cushion growth in 2019 to 2020 and help to guard against a sharper downturn in US economic conditions.”