Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Stati Uniti

Usa. Richieste sussidi disoccupazione aumentati. Iniziali 351,000, continua 2,845.000.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-23.

2021-09-23__ Usa Sussidi 001

Gli Stati Uniti sono in stagflazione.

L’Indice dei prezzi alla Produzione, PPI, si è attestato all’8.3%, mentre l’Indice dei Prezzi al Consumo, CPI, vale il 5.3%.

Ma contro codesti dati di severa inflazione fa riscontro un microscopico valore del numero delle buste paga non agricole, Nonfarm Payrolls, che ha generato solo 235,000 nuovi posti di lavoro. La produzione è ferma.

Gli odierni macrodati sono semplicemente quelli che logica e buon senso avevano previsto: lo Initial Jobless Claims è salito a 351,000, mentre le richieste di sussidi di disoccupazione continua sono a loro volta salite a 2,845,000.

La débâcle economica e sociale della Harris-Biden Administration è adesso evidente ed è sotto gli occhi di tutti, e la situazione sta peggiorando di giorno in giorno tra l’inedia del governo e della Fed.

A questa drammatica situazione fa riscontro il fatto che l’industria abbia 10.9 milioni di posti vacanti.

Di fatto, gli attuali disoccupati non rispondono alle caratteristiche richieste, anche se molti preferiscono di gran lunga percepire i sussidi invece che lavorare. In ogni caso, è una situazione kafkiana.

Sinceramente, ci si stupisce che i media se ne stupiscano. Gran brutta malattia la ideologia.

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U.S. weekly jobless claims unexpectedly rise; labor market gradually healing

Washington (Reuters) – The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly rose last week amid a surge in California, but the labor market continues to steadily recover.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 16,000 to a seasonally adjusted 351,000 for the week ended Sept. 18, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 320,000 applications for the latest week.

There was a 24,221 jump in unadjusted claims in California. That offset a sharp decrease in filings in Louisiana, which was devastated by Hurricane Ida in late August.

The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, fell 750 to 335,750 last week.

Claims have dropped from a record 6.149 million in early April 2020, but still remain above the 200,000-250,000 range viewed as consistent with healthy labor market conditions.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday struck upbeat note on the economy, paving the way to reduce its monthly bond purchases “soon” and signaling interest rate increases may follow more quickly than expected.

Last week’s claims data covered the period during which the government surveyed employers for the nonfarm payrolls portion of September’s employment report.

Job growth slowed in August, with payrolls posting their smallest gain in seven months amid a stalling in hiring in the high contact leisure and hospitality sector as infections driven by the Delta variant of the coronavirus surged.

Pandemic-related factors are causing worker shortages, which are constraining hiring. Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters he anticipated “more rapid gains in employment” as these factors, which include lack of affordable child care and fears contracting the virus, diminish.

There were a record 10.9 million job openings at the end of July. The Fed projected the unemployment rate at 4.8% this year. That was up from the 4.5% rate the U.S. central bank projected back in June. The jobless rate was at 5.2% in August.

Pubblicato in: Economia e Produzione Industriale, Materie Prime

Portogallo. Inizia a Tras-on-Montes lo sfruttamento di un giacimento di litio.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-23.

Tras os Montes 001

Il litio è una terra rara con uso nella manifattura di ceramiche e vetrerie, nei grassi lubrificanti, in metallurgia. In applicazioni militari è impiegato quale additivo per i propellenti dei missili. Il deuterio di litio era il carburante di fusione di scelta nelle prime versioni della bomba all’idrogeno.

È tuttavia nella elettronica il suo utilizzo principale, dai circuiti alle pile.

Nel volgere di un anno, le quotazioni del litio sono salite del 98.92%.

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«The northern Portuguese province of Tras-os-Montes is planning to extract lithium in an open-cast mine»

«But the locals in this sparsely populated and economically deprived region are putting up a fight»

«The Portuguese government expects work on the mine to start as early as next year»

«Portugal’s government has decided to turn the country into a big player regarding lithium mining. The nation sits on an estimated 10% of overall lithium deposits in Europe»

«Three years ago, it adopted a multibillion-euro national lithium strategy. The idea is to set up a Gigafactory and a refinery for processing lithium ore»

«This idyllic landscape near the village of Covas do Barroso is in danger of having to make way for open-cast lithium mining, ironically in the name of environment protection»

«The mine would extract a crucial raw material for the batteries of electric cars and thus contribute to reducing global CO2 emissions and Europe’s dependence on lithium imports»

* * *

«There will be huge mine dumps, and rivers will be redirected, …. “The whole landscape and its ecological balance will be destroyed»

«mining will only require people with low skills, and the jobs would only be available for a limited period»

* * * * * * *

È comune vezzo degli ambientalisti quello di usufruire di tutti i vantaggi di un paese industrializzato, ma non voler assolutamente impianti loro vicini.

Notiamo con piacere come il Governo portoghese abbia scelto il bene generale.

*


Portugal: War over lithium behind the mountains

The northern Portuguese province of Tras-os-Montes is planning to extract lithium in an open-cast mine. But the locals in this sparsely populated and economically deprived region are putting up a fight.

*

Birds are chirping, and the corn stands tall ready to be harvested. A cow is grazing at the roadside while a shepherd is accompanying his sheep on their way to the pasture. There’s no cloud in sight, only endless forests and huge letters reading “HELP,” mown into flat broom shrubs and visible from a distance.

This idyllic landscape near the village of Covas do Barroso is in danger of having to make way for open-cast lithium mining, ironically in the name of environment protection. The mine would extract a crucial raw material for the batteries of electric cars and thus contribute to reducing global CO2 emissions and Europe’s dependence on lithium imports.

Portugal’s government has decided to turn the country into a big player regarding lithium mining. The nation sits on an estimated 10% of overall lithium deposits in Europe. But unfortunately, most of the metal is located in beautiful places such as Covas do Barroso, which makes it a breeding ground for conflict.

                         Severe ecological damage expected.

The chairman of a local action group, Nelson Gomes, says the plan is to mine lithium here in four locations initially. “There will be huge mine dumps, and rivers will be redirected,” he told DW. “The whole landscape and its ecological balance will be destroyed.”

The group’s motto “Yes to life, no to the mine” is seen hanging on more and more facades and traffic signs. “We’ve been involved in sustainable farming for centuries,” Gomes said. “We’re small family-run businesses, keeping afloat without much help from the state — and we’re not going to give this up just like that; we’ll fight against the mine right until the end.”

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has even declared the region a heritage site because of the sustainable farming methods employed there. But that status is at risk now with lithium mining looming in the area.

Portugal’s government, however, is pointing to the big picture. Three years ago, it adopted a multibillion-euro national lithium strategy. The idea is to set up a Gigafactory and a refinery for processing lithium ore.

There’s talk of profitable and future-oriented technologies and jobs for highly skilled workers. Lisbon is certainly interested in making a fortune with lithium in the framework of the EU’s Green Deal designed to accelerate the bloc’s path toward climate neutrality. Environment Minister Joao Pedro Matos Fernandes said: “We want to use our lithium reserves to profit from the added value chain resulting from decarbonization.”

                         Will profits really stay in the country?

Whether this will be the case is uncertain, though. According to Nuno Forner from the environmental pressure group Zero, foreign companies are interested in mining lithium in Portugal, but less so in refining the mined metal locally.

“There are no concrete commitments by companies to help build a lithium refinery or a battery plan — the odds are the profitable processing of the raw material will happen abroad,” he said.

Nonetheless, the government has already granted two mining licenses and defined nine regions for prospecting in search of what it calls “white gold.” Almost all of these regions are located in northern Portugal and many of them are in the middle of nature protection zones. Some of them are even part of the European Natura-2000 network.

Most of the prospecting areas are in the northern region of Tras-os-Montes (literally: behind the mountains). In that economically depressed region, resistance to the project has been strongest.

                         More damaging than useful.

“If the Barroso mine gets the green light, our region would be destroyed,” said Fernando Queiroga, a district administrator. Despite all the difficulties and basically without any help from Lisbon the locals, he says, have been able to establish new markets for their protected regional produce.

“How are we supposed to keep selling our beef, if it gets associated with lithium mining,” Queirogo asked. “Or how are we supposed to sell our superb honey, if the dust caused by mining activities kills our bees?”

According to Albano Alvares, who heads the local agricultural cooperative, compensation payments offered so far have been ludicrous. “The damage done to the forest alone would amount to some €70 million ($83 million),” he said. And maybe, mining would create jobs, but then farming does, too, Alvares insists. “Our cooperative alone has created 10 jobs for people graduating from high school.”

He fears that mining will only require people with low skills, and the jobs would only be available for a limited period. He reckons that the mine would close after 10 years or so when lithium reserves in Covas do Barroso are depleted. The ecological damage would stay, though, Alvares warns.

And so the lithium war behind the mountains enters another round. The Portuguese Environmental Agency will scrutinize the environmental impact study presented by the mine operator. This study is rather sloppy, says Zero’s Forner, as it neglects the impact on endangered species such as freshwater bivalves or the Iberian wolf.

“We have to think twice before letting our environment go down the drain, even if the use of lithium serves a good purpose.”

The Portuguese government expects work on the mine to start as early as next year.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Materie Prime

Mondo. Materie Prime. I prezzi alla estrazione continuano a salire.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-21

2021-09-21__ Materie Prime 001

Queste Tabelle dovrebbero essere eloquenti.

Riportiamo in evidenza i maggiori rincari dei costi di estrazione.

2021-09-21__ Materie Prime 002

*

– Il costo di estrazione del Gas è cresciuto in un anno del 100.35%.

– Il costo di estrazione del propano è cresciuto in un anno del 97.55%.

– Il costo di estrazione del litio è cresciuto in un anno del 229.03%.

– Il costo di estrazione del carbone è cresciuto in un anno del 120.50%.

– Il costo di estrazione del molibdeno è cresciuto in un anno del 96.81%.

2021-09-21__ Materie Prime 003

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Nulla quindi di cui stupirsi se il PPI, Indice dei Prezzi di Produzione, negli Stati Uniti sia salito all’8.3% e nella eurozona del 12.1%.

Questa è una inflazione strutturale, importata, sulla quale le banche centrali sono impotenti.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Stati Uniti

Buffett Indicator 239%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-20.

2021-09-20__ Buffett Indicator 001

The Buffett Indicator is the ratio of total US stock market valuation to GDP. Named after Warren Buffett, who called the ratio “the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment”. (Buffett has since walked back those comments, hesitating to endorse any single measure as either comprehensive or consistent over time, but this ratio remains credited to his name). To calculate the ratio, we need to get data for both metrics: Total Market Value and GDP.

2021-09-20__ Buffett Indicator 002

                         Total Market Value

The most common measurement of the aggregate value of the US stock market is the Wilshire 5000. This is available directly from Wilshire (links to all data sources below), with monthly data starting in 1971, and daily measures beginning in 1980. The Wilshire index was created such that a 1-point increase in the index corresponds to a $1 billion increase in US market cap. Per Wilshire, that 1:1 ratio has drifted, and as of Dec 2013 a 1-point increase in the index corresponded to a $1.15 billion dollar increase. We adjust the data back to inception (and projected going forward) on a straight-line basis to compensate for this drift. For example, the Sep 2020 Wilshire Index of 35,807 corresponds to a total real market cap value of $42.27T USD.

For data prior to 1970 (where Wilshire data is not available) we use the Z.1 Financial Account – Nonfinancial corporate business; corporate equities; liability, Level, published by the Federal Reserve, which provides a quarterly estimate of total market value back to 1945. In order to integrate the datasets, we index the Z.1 data to match up to the 1970 Wilshire starting point.

Combined, these data make our Composite US Stock Market Value data series, shown below. Our current estimate of composite US stock market value is $54.9T.

                         GDP

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) represents the total production of the US economy. This is measured quarterly by the US Government’s Bureau of Economic Analysis. The GDP is a static measurement of prior economic activity – it does not forecast the future or include any expectation or valuation of future economic activity or economic growth. The GDP is calculated and published quarterly, several months in arrears, such that by the time the data is published it is several months old. In order to provide updated data for the most recent quarter we use the most recent GDPNow estimate published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Based on this, our current estimate of (annualized) GDP is $22.9T. A historical chart of GDP is shown below.

                         The Ratio of the Two

Given that the stock market value represents expectations of future economic activity, and the GDP is a measure of most recent actual economic activity, the ratio of these two data series represents expected future returns relative to current performance. This is similar in nature to how we think about the PE ratio of a particular stock. It stands to reason that this ratio would remain relatively stable over time, and increase slowly as technology allows for the same labor and capital to be used ever more efficiently.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Germania. Agosto21. Wholesale price +12.3% su agosto20. Inflazione che cresce.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-18.

2021-09-14__ Germania Prezzi Ingrosso 001

«Wholesale price is the sum or amount of money for which products or services are offered for sale to business buyers who are purchasing in larger volumes. Purchasing at wholesale describes the sale of goods in quantity for resale.»

* * * * * * *

L’indice dei prezzi all’ingrosso (Wholesale Price Index, WPI) misura il cambiamento nel prezzo dei beni venduti da grossisti a grossisti.

Quanto più alto risulta questo dato, tanto maggiore sarà il suo impatto sull’inflazione. Si noti come questo macrodato sia in costante crescita.

* * * * * * *


Destatis ha rilasciato il Report Wholesale prices in August 2021: +12.3% on August 2020

                         Pressrelease #427 from 13 September 2021.

                         Wholesale selling prices, August 2021

+0.5% on the previous month

+12.3% on the same month a year earlier

* * *

Wiesbaden – In August 2021 the selling prices in wholesale trade rose by 12.3% compared with August 2020. This was the highest monthly annual rate of change since October 1974 after the first oil crisis (+13.2% compared with October 1973). In July 2021 and in June 2021 the annual rates of change had been +11.3% and +10.7%, respectively.
From July 2021 to August 2021 the index rose by 0.5%.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Stati Uniti

Usa. Agosto21. PPI, Producer Price Index, è salito a 8.3 percento.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-13.

2021-09-12__ Usa PPI 000

                         In sintesi.

2021-09-12__ Usa PPI 001

«the final demand index rose 8.3 percent for the 12 months ended in August»

«For the 12 months ended in August, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 6.3 percent»

«Over 30 percent of the August increase in prices for final demand services can be traced to a 7.8-percent rise in margins for health, beauty, and optical goods retailing»

«About a quarter of the August advance in prices for final demand goods can be attributed to an 8.5-percent rise in the index for meats»

«For the 12 months ended in August, the index for processed goods for intermediate demand climbed 23.0 percent»

«For the 12 months ended in August, the index for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand surged 50.1 percent»

«For the 12 months ended in August, prices for services for intermediate demand climbed 8.6 percent»

«For the 12 months ended in August, prices for stage 4 intermediate demand rose 12.1 percent»

«For the 12 months ended in August, the index for stage 3 intermediate demand moved up 20.2 percent»

«For the 12 months ended in August, the index for stage 2 intermediate demand advanced 21.8 percent»

«For the 12 months ended in August, prices for stage 1 intermediate demand rose 21.1 percent.»

2021-09-12__ Usa PPI 002

* * * * * * *

Gli Stati Uniti sono in piena stagflazione.

* * * * * * *


Lo US Bureau of Labor Statistics ha rilasciato il Report Producer Price Index News Release.

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.7 percent in August, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 1.0 percent in July, the same as in June. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index rose 8.3 percent for the 12 months ended in August, the largest advance since 12-month data were first calculated in November 2010.

Leading the August increase in the index for final demand, prices for final demand services rose 0.7 percent. The index for final demand goods moved up 1.0 percent.

Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.3 percent in August after increasing 0.9 percent in July. For the 12 months ended in August, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 6.3 percent, the largest advance since 12-month data were first calculated in August 2014.

                         Final Demand.

Final demand services: Prices for final demand services moved up 0.7 percent in August, the eighth consecutive advance. Two-thirds of the broad-based increase in August can be traced to the index for final demand trade services, which rose 1.5 percent. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) Prices for final demand transportation and warehousing services and for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing climbed 2.8 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively.

Product detail: Over 30 percent of the August increase in prices for final demand services can be traced to a 7.8-percent rise in margins for health, beauty, and optical goods retailing. The indexes for transportation of passengers (partial), chemicals and allied products wholesaling, bundled wired telecommunications access services, machinery and equipment parts and supplies wholesaling, and traveler accommodation services also moved higher. Conversely, prices for hospital outpatient care fell 1.5 percent. The indexes for hardware, building materials, and supplies retailing and for securities brokerage, dealing, investment advice, and related services also decreased. (See table 4.)

                         Final demand goods: The index for final demand goods moved up 1.0 percent in August after increasing 0.6 percent in July. In August, half of the broad-based advance can be attributed to a 2.9-percent rise in prices for final demand foods. The indexes for final demand goods less foods and energy and for final demand energy also moved higher, 0.6 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively.

Product detail: About a quarter of the August advance in prices for final demand goods can be attributed to an 8.5-percent rise in the index for meats. Prices for residential natural gas, industrial chemicals, processed young chickens, motor vehicles, and steel mill products also moved higher. In contrast, the index for iron and steel scrap decreased 3.7 percent. Prices for diesel fuel and for natural, processed, and imitation cheese also moved lower.

                         Intermediate Demand by Commodity Type.

Within intermediate demand in August, prices for processed goods advanced 1.0 percent, the index for unprocessed goods also increased 1.0 percent, and prices for services rose 0.3 percent. (See tables B and C.)

                         Processed goods for intermediate demand: The index for processed goods for intermediate demand moved up 1.0 percent in August after rising 1.7 percent in July. Most of the increase in August is attributable to prices for processed materials less foods and energy, which advanced 1.3 percent. The index for processed foods and feeds rose 2.1 percent. Conversely, prices for processed energy goods fell 0.6 percent. For the 12 months ended in August, the index for processed goods for intermediate demand climbed 23.0 percent, the largest 12-month increase since jumping 23.6 percent in February 1975.

Product detail: One-third of the August advance in the index for processed goods for intermediate demand can be traced to prices for industrial chemicals, which rose 4.9 percent. The indexes for steel mill products; meats; structural, architectural, and pre-engineered metal products; plastic products; and industrial electric power also moved higher. In contrast, diesel fuel prices decreased 1.6 percent. The indexes for softwood lumber and for natural, processed, and imitation cheese also declined. (See table 5.)

                         Unprocessed goods for intermediate demand: The index for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand rose 1.0 percent in August, the fifth consecutive increase. The advance in August is attributable to prices for unprocessed foodstuffs and feedstuffs, which jumped 3.8 percent. Conversely, the index for unprocessed energy materials fell 0.2 percent, while prices for unprocessed nonfood materials less energy were unchanged. For the 12 months ended in August, the index for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand surged 50.1 percent.

Product detail: In August, an 11.0-percent increase in the index for slaughter poultry was a major factor in the rise in prices for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand. The indexes for natural gas, corn, wheat, slaughter steers and heifers, and corrugated recyclable paper also moved higher. In contrast, crude petroleum prices decreased 10.1 percent. The indexes for iron and steel scrap and for raw milk also declined.

                         Services for intermediate demand: The index for services for intermediate demand rose 0.3 percent in August, the ninth consecutive increase. In August, 80 percent of the advance can be traced to margins for trade services for intermediate demand, which moved up 1.1 percent. Prices for transportation and warehousing services for intermediate demand also rose 1.1 percent. Conversely, the index for services less trade, transportation, and warehousing for intermediate demand fell 0.2 percent. For the 12 months ended in August, prices for services for intermediate demand climbed 8.6 percent.

Product detail: Nearly 60 percent of the August increase in prices for services for intermediate demand can be attributed to margins for machinery and equipment parts and supplies wholesaling, which rose 2.8 percent. The indexes for metals, minerals, and ores wholesaling; transportation of passengers (partial); building materials, paint, and hardware wholesaling; nonresidential real estate services; and chemicals and allied products wholesaling also advanced. In contrast, prices for television advertising time sales fell 9.0 percent. The indexes for hardware, building material, and supplies retailing and for warehousing, storage, and related services also declined.

                         Intermediate Demand by Production Flow.

                         Stage 4 intermediate demand: Prices for stage 4 intermediate demand advanced 0.8 percent in August following a 1.1-percent increase in July. In August, the index for total goods inputs to stage 4 intermediate demand rose 0.9 percent, and prices for total services inputs moved up 0.7 percent. (See table D.) Increases in the indexes for meats; machinery and equipment parts and supplies wholesaling; metals, minerals, and ores wholesaling; structural, architectural, and pre-engineered metal products; steel mill products; and nonresidential real estate services outweighed declines in the indexes for securities brokerage, dealing, investment advice, and related services; softwood lumber; and hardware, building materials, and supplies retailing. (See table 6.) For the 12 months ended in August, prices for stage 4 intermediate demand rose 12.1 percent, the largest advance since 12-month data were first calculated in November 2010.

                         Stage 3 intermediate demand: Prices for stage 3 intermediate demand advanced 1.0 percent in August following a 1.1-percent increase in July. In August, the index for total goods inputs to stage 3 intermediate demand rose 1.9 percent, and prices for total services inputs were unchanged. Advances in the indexes for steel mill products; slaughter poultry; metals, minerals, and ores wholesaling; industrial chemicals; corn; and slaughter steers and heifers outweighed decreasing prices for television advertising time sales, raw milk, and softwood lumber. For the 12 months ended in August, the index for stage 3 intermediate demand moved up 20.2 percent, the same as in July.

                         Stage 2 intermediate demand: The index for stage 2 intermediate demand advanced 0.4 percent in August, the fifth consecutive increase. In August, prices for total goods inputs to stage 2 intermediate demand rose 0.5 percent, and the index for total services inputs moved up 0.3 percent. Increases in the indexes for gas fuels; industrial chemicals; steel mill products; machinery and equipment parts and supplies wholesaling; transportation of passengers (partial); and oilseeds outweighed decreasing prices for crude petroleum, television advertising time sales, and softwood lumber. For the 12 months ended in August, the index for stage 2 intermediate demand advanced 21.8 percent.

                         Stage 1 intermediate demand: Prices for stage 1 intermediate demand rose 0.9 percent in August following a 1.9-percent increase in July. In August, the index for total goods inputs to stage 1 intermediate demand moved up 1.3 percent, and prices for total services inputs advanced 0.5 percent.

Increases in the indexes for industrial chemicals; steel mill products; metals, minerals, and ores wholesaling; transportation of passengers (partial); building materials, paint, and hardware wholesaling; and structural, architectural, and pre-engineered metal products outweighed decreases in the indexes for hardware, building materials, and supplies retailing; securities brokerage, dealing, investment advice, and related services; and diesel fuel. For the 12 months ended in August, prices for stage 1 intermediate demand rose 21.1 percent.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Unione Europea

Blocco Europeo. 2021Q2. Pil -2.5%, occupati -2.1 milioni, comparati con 2019Q4.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-11.

2021-09-08__ Eurostat Pil 001

Molto correttamente, Eurostat riporta le variazioni percentuali sul trimestre precedente.

Infatti, il 2020Q2 fu particolarmente depresso, per cui il rapporto 2021Q2/2020Q2 risulta essere abnormemente elevato, inaffidabile.

Sempre molto correttamente, Eurostat paragona questi macrodati con quelli del 2019Q4, ultimo trimestre prima della crisi pandemica.

«Based on seasonally adjusted figures, GDP volumes were 2.5% and 2.2% below their highest level of the fourth quarter 2019 for the euro area and EU. For the United States, GDP was 0.8% higher than the level of the fourth quarter 2019»

«employment in persons was 2.1 million in the euro area and 2.0 million in the EU below the level of the fourth quarter of 2019»

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Eurostat ha rilasciato il Report GDP up by 2.2% and employment up by 0.7% in the euro area. In the EU, GDP up by 2.1% and employment up by 0.7%

                         GDP growth in the euro area and the EU

In the second quarter of 2021, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 2.2% in the euro area and by 2.1% in the EU compared with the previous quarter, according to an estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the first quarter of 2021, GDP had declined by 0.3% in the euro area and 0.1% in the EU.  

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 14.3% in the euro area and by 13.8% in the EU in the second quarter of 2021, after -1.2% in both zones in the previous quarter.

During the second quarter of 2021, GDP in the United States increased by 1.6% compared with the previous quarter (after +1.5% in the first quarter of 2021). Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, GDP increased by 12.2% (after +0.5% in the previous quarter).

                         GDP growth by Member State

Ireland (+6.3%) recorded the sharpest increase of GDP compared to the previous quarter, followed by Portugal (+4.9%), Latvia (+4.4%) and Estonia (+4.3%). Declines were observed in Malta (-0.5%) and Croatia (-0.2%).

                         GDP components and contributions to growth

During the second quarter of 2021, household final consumption expenditure increased by 3.7% in the euro area and by 3.5% in the EU (after -2.1% in the euro area and -1.7% in the EU in the previous quarter). Government final consumption expenditure increased by 1.2% in both zones (after -0.5% both in the previous quarter). Gross fixed capital formation increased by 1.1% in the euro area and by 1.0% in the EU (after -0.2% and +0.3% respectively). Exports increased by 2.2% in the euro area and by 1.8% the EU (after +0.7% in both areas). Imports increased by 2.3% in the euro area and by 2.2% in the EU (after +0.4% and +0.6%).

Household final consumption expenditure had strong positive contributions to GDP growth in both the euro area and the EU (+1.9 and +1.7 percentage points – pp, respectively). The contributions from government final expenditure (+0.3 pp in both zones) and gross fixed capital formation (+0.2 pp in both zones) were also positive. The contribution from the external balance was close to neutral for both zones, while the contribution from changes in inventories was slightly negative for the euro area and neutral for the EU.

                         GDP levels in the euro area and EU

Based on seasonally adjusted figures, GDP volumes were 2.5% and 2.2% below their highest level of the fourth quarter 2019 for the euro area and EU. For the United States, GDP was 0.8% higher than the level of the fourth quarter 2019.

                         Employment growth in the euro area and EU

The number of employed persons increased by 0.7% in both the euro area and in the EU in the second quarter of 2021, compared with the previous quarter. In the first quarter of 2021, employment had decreased by 0.2% in both the euro area and the EU.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, employment increased by 1.8% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU in the second quarter of 2021, after -1.8% and -1.6% respectively in the first quarter of 2021.

Hours worked increased by 2.7% in the euro area and by 2.4% in the EU in the second quarter of 2021, compared with the previous quarter. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year the increases were 17.0% in the euro area and 14.7% in the EU (see annex table on employment in hours worked).

These data provide a picture of labour input consistent with the output and income measure of national accounts.

                         Employment growth in Member States

In the second quarter of 2021, Latvia (+5.7%), Greece (+2.8%), Denmark and Portugal (both +1.9%) recorded the highest growth of employment in persons compared with the previous quarter. Decreases were observed in Estonia (-1.1%) and Spain (-0.9%).

                         Employment levels in the euro area and EU

Based on seasonally adjusted figures, Eurostat estimates that in the second quarter of 2021, 207.5 million people were employed in the EU, of which 159.0 million were in the euro area.

In relation to the COVID-19 pandemic, employment in persons was 2.1 million in the euro area and 2.0 million in the EU below the level of the fourth quarter of 2019.

                         Evolution of labour productivity in the euro area and EU

The combination of GDP and employment data allows an estimation of labour productivity. The analysis of growth compared to the same quarter of the previous year shows that productivity growth (based on employed persons) fluctuated around 1% for both zones between 2013 and 2018.

In relation to the COVID-19 pandemic, productivity based on persons increased compared to the same quarter of the previous year with 12.2% for the euro area and 11.6% for the EU.

Based on hours worked, productivity compared to the same quarter of the previous year decreased by 1.5% for the euro area and increased by 0.3% for the EU.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Cina. Agosto21. PPI, producer price index, +9.5%. Costi delle materie prime.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-11.

2021-09-09__ Cina PCI PPI 001

«China’s producer price index measuring factory gate prices rose 9.5% y/y in August, accelerating from July’s 9.0% gain»

«The uptick in PPI year-on-year gain was mainly driven by price increases in coal mining, chemical raw materials as well as ferrous metal processing sectors, which rose by 11.4, 2.7 and 1.1 percentage points, respectively»

«China’s August consumer price index eased to 0.8% y/y from 1.0% in July, registering a four-month low, less than the forecast 1.0%»

«The deceleration was partly due to falling food prices led by the declining pork prices»

«Core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, was up 1.2% y/y, compared with July’s 1.3% gain»

«Producer price inflation reached its highest since August 2008 last month due to the rally in global commodity prices»

«affected by rising prices of products such as coal, chemicals and steel»

* * * * * * *

I prezzi alla produzione sono aumentati del +9.5% principalmente a causa degli aumenti delle materie prime, specialmente i minerali di carbone, le materie prime chimiche, ed i materiali di ferro.

Si è quindi di fronte ad una inflazioni importata, la correzione della quale esula le possibilità della banca centrale.

Verosimilmente, essa durerà fino a tanto che il mercato delle materie primenon ritrovi un suo equilibrio.

*


Aug China Producer Prices 13Y High, CPI Slows

China’s producer price index measuring factory gate prices rose 9.5% y/y in August, accelerating from July’s 9.0% gain, hitting the highest level since August 2008 and outshining a forecast of 9.0%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics on Thursday, while consumer prices slowed.

The uptick in PPI year-on-year gain was mainly driven by price increases in coal mining, chemical raw materials as well as ferrous metal processing sectors, which rose by 11.4, 2.7 and 1.1 percentage points, respectively, the NBS said. PPI rose 0.7% m/m, also quickening from 0.5% reported last month, see: MNI Reality Check: China Aug CPI Stalls Despite Food Cost Rise.

China’s August consumer price index eased to 0.8% y/y from 1.0% in July, registering a four-month low, less than the forecast 1.0%. The deceleration was partly due to falling food prices led by the declining pork prices, the NBS said. Service price gains, including that of air tickets and hotels, eased on sporadic outbreaks of Covid-19 cases. Core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, was up 1.2% y/y, compared with July’s 1.3% gain.

* * *


China’s commodity prices push factory-gate inflation to rise at fastest pace in 13 years

– China’s official producer price index (PPI) rose by 9.5 per cent in August from a year earlier, compared with 9 per cent in July

– The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.8 per cent in August from a year earlier, compared with a 1 per cent rise in July

*

Factory-gate price inflation in China remained high in August, rising to the highest level in 13 years, data released on Thursday showed.

The producer price index (PPI), which reflects the prices that factories charge wholesalers for their products, rose by 9.5 per cent in August from a year earlier, from a gain of 9 per cent in July, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said.

This was the fastest pace since hitting 10.1 in  August 2008 and was also above expectations, as a Bloomberg survey of analysts had predicted an unchanged reading.

It is also the third-highest reading since the start of the NBS database in October 1996, with the PPI index also hitting 10 per cent in July 2008.

China’s official consumer price index (CPI), meanwhile, rose by 0.8 per cent in August from a year earlier, down from 1 per cent in July, the NBS said.

This was below the Bloomberg survey median, which had also predicted an unchanged reading.

Beijing has set a 2021 CPI growth target of around 3 per cent, compared with around 3.5 per cent last year.

“Producer price inflation reached its highest since August 2008 last month due to the rally in global commodity prices. But the breakdown suggests that upward pressure on the factory-gate prices of consumer goods is easing,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics.

“Coupled with continued declines in food prices, this dragged consumer price inflation back below 1 per cent. We think PPI inflation is likely to ease before long while CPI inflation will remain muted this year.”

China’s core consumer inflation rate, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 1.2 per cent in August compared with a year earlier, down from 1.3 per cent in July.

Food prices fell by 4.1 per cent from a year earlier in August, down from a fall of 3.7 per cent in July.

Non-food prices rose by 1.9 per cent in August, year on year, up from a reading of 2.1 per cent in July. The price of pork – a staple meat on Chinese plates – dropped by 44.9 per cent compared with a year earlier in August.

NBS senior statistician Dong Lijuan explained that due to the impact of sporadic coronavirus outbreaks across the country, coupled with the impact of rainstorms and summer heat, the price of fresh vegetables and eggs accelerated last month, while the price of pork declined as the supply continued to increase.

“Mainly affected by the pandemic, the consumption of travel services such as air tickets, tourism and hotel accommodation has been restrained, and prices have changed from rising to falling [in month-on-month terms],” she said.

“Industrial product price hikes also accelerated both compared with last month and last year in August, affected by rising prices of products such as coal, chemicals and steel.”

China’s economy has staged an impressive recovery from the lows of the coronavirus pandemic, growing by 7.9 per cent in the second quarter of 2021 compared with a year prior, and it grew by 12.7 per cent in the first half of the year versus the same period in 2020.

But economists have since slashed their economic outlooks for China in light of the Delta variant spreading across the world’s second-largest economy, with high raw material prices, tighter property curbs and a campaign to reduce carbon emissions adding to the slowdown.

“We doubt producer price inflation will rise much further. Base effects will start to weigh heavily on the headline rate around the turn of the year,” added Evans-Pritchard.

“And we think coal and metal prices are likely to drop back over the coming months as the recent slowdown in credit growth and tighter restrictions on the property sector start to weigh more heavily on construction activity.

“Meanwhile, with pork prices still falling, food deflation looks set to remain considerable for a while. As such, headline consumer price inflation should remain below 2 per cent in the coming quarters and is unlikely to constrain the [People’s Bank of China’s] ability to loosen monetary policy.”

Pubblicato in: Cina, Commercio, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Cina. Agosto21. Esportazioni salite del 25.6% su agosto20. Per fortuna era ‘male in arnese’.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-09.

2021-09-07__ Cina Export 001

Così, il sistema economico cinese, dato dai media occidentali come agonizzante, ha segnato in agosto un Export del +25.6% ed un Import del +33.1%, confrontati con i valori rilevati nell’agosto 2020. Il saldo della bilancia commerciale è stato 58.3 miliardi Usd, per un valore annualizzato di 699.6 miliardi Usd.

I media occidentali sono esterrefatti, e si consolano dicendo che ” economic momentum has weakened”.

Ci si dimentica che per esportare occorre prima produrre, e che si importa ciò che poi dovrà essere lavorato.

Eppure, i rialzi dei costi delle materie prime ci sono anche per i cinesi.

* * * * * * *

«China’s August exports growth unexpectedly picks up speed in boost to economy»

«China staged an impressive recovery from a coronavirus-battered slump, but economic momentum has weakened recently due to Covid-19 outbreaks, high raw material prices and slowing exports»

«Shipments from the world’s biggest exporter in August rose at a faster-than-expected rate of 25.6% from a year earlier, from a 19.3.% gain in July»

«Exports from neighboring countries also showed encouraging growth last month, with South Korean shipments accelerating on strong overseas demand»

«Shipments from the world’s biggest exporter in August rose at a faster-than-expected rate of 25.6% from a year earlier, from a 19.3.% gain in July, pointing to some resilience in China’s industrial sector»

«→→ Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast growth of 17.1% ←←»

«August exports showed that despite a higher base for comparison from last year, the ongoing global recovery will not be impeded, and the impact from the resurgence in the Covid-19 pandemic remains limited»

«Export growth of machineries and hi-tech products stayed high»

«Exports from neighboring countries also showed encouraging growth last month, with South Korean shipments accelerating on strong overseas demand»

«China’s exports may sustain its strong growth into the fourth quarter, with overseas demand for Chinese goods over the Christmas season possibly exceeding expectations»

«the main constraint facing China’s exports right now is the very stretched international shipping capacity»

«A global semiconductor shortage has added to the strains on exporters»

«Imports increased 33.1% year-on-year in August»

«China’s trade surplus with the United States rose to $37.68 billion from $35.4 billion in July»

* * * * * * *

Nella foga verbale della guerra economica che gli Stati Uniti hanno intrapreso verso la Cina, accusandola di ogni possibile cosa che sia nefandezza ai loro occhi e sistematicamente sminuendone le capacità del sistema produttivo cinese, alla fine anche i liberal democratici sono obbligati a confrontarsi con numeri impietosi.

Europa. La stagflazione è in casa per rimanervi. Se ne pigli atto.

Europa. Luglio21. PPI, industrial producer prices, +12.2% su Luglio 2020. Inflazione a due cifre.

Usa. Nonfarm Payrolls 253,000. La débâcle economica di Joe Biden.

* * *

Una ultima considerazione.

Quale credibilità potrebbe ancora essere riposta negli ‘economisti’ occidentali che sbagliano in modo così vistoso le previsioni che fanno?

Si sono screditati con le loro stesse mani e con i loro fantasiosi giudizi surreali.

Gran brutto segno clinico il pensiero reso coatto dalla ideologia. Ha prognosi infausta.

*


China’s August exports growth unexpectedly picks up speed in boost to economy

– China staged an impressive recovery from a coronavirus-battered slump, but economic momentum has weakened recently due to Covid-19 outbreaks, high raw material prices and slowing exports.

– Shipments from the world’s biggest exporter in August rose at a faster-than-expected rate of 25.6% from a year earlier, from a 19.3.% gain in July.

– Exports from neighboring countries also showed encouraging growth last month, with South Korean shipments accelerating on strong overseas demand.

* * *

China’s exports unexpectedly grew at a faster pace in August thanks to solid global demand, helping take some of the pressure off the world’s second-biggest economy as it navigates its way through headwinds from several fronts.

China staged an impressive recovery from a coronavirus-battered slump, but economic momentum has weakened recently due to the delta variant-driven Covid-19 outbreaks, high raw material prices, slowing exports, tighter measures to tame hot property prices and a campaign to reduce carbon emissions.

Shipments from the world’s biggest exporter in August rose at a faster-than-expected rate of 25.6% from a year earlier, from a 19.3.% gain in July, pointing to some resilience in China’s industrial sector.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast growth of 17.1%.

“August exports showed that despite a higher base for comparison from last year, the ongoing global recovery will not be impeded, and the impact from the resurgence in the Covid-19 pandemic remains limited,” said Ji Chunhua, Senior Vice President of Research at Zhongtai International.

Export growth of machineries and hi-tech products stayed high in August, Ji said.

Exports from neighboring countries also showed encouraging growth last month, with South Korean shipments accelerating on strong overseas demand.

Some of the port gridlock also appears to have cleared in a boost to China’s shippers last month.

The eastern coastal ports have suffered congestion as a terminal at the country’s second biggest container port shut down for two weeks due to a Covid-19 case. That put further pressure on global supply chains already struggling with a shortage of container vessels and high raw material prices.

Zhang Yi, Beijing-based economist at Zhonghai Shengrong Capital Management, said China’s exports may sustain its strong growth into the fourth quarter, with overseas demand for Chinese goods over the Christmas season possibly exceeding expectations.

“We believe the main constraint facing China’s exports right now is the very stretched international shipping capacity.”

However, behind the robust headline figures, businesses are struggling on the ground. Companies faced increasing pressure in August as factory activity expanded at a slower pace while the services sector slumped into contraction. A global semiconductor shortage has added to the strains on exporters.

Imports increased 33.1% year-on-year in August, beating an expected 26.8% gain in the Reuters poll, buoyed by still high prices. That compared with 28.1% growth in the previous month.

China posted a trade surplus of $58.34 billion in August, versus the poll’s forecast for a $51.05 billion surplus and $56.58 billion in July.

Many analysts expect the central bank to deliver a further cut to the amount of cash banks must hold as reserves later this year to lift growth, on top of

July’s cut which released around 1 trillion yuan ($6.47 trillion) in long-term liquidity into the economy.

The country appears to have largely contained the latest coronavirus outbreaks of the more infectious delta variant, but it prompted measures including mass testing for millions of people as well as travel restrictions of varying degrees in August.

China’s trade surplus with the United States rose to $37.68 billion from $35.4 billion in July, Reuters calculations based on the customs data showed.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, India

India. 2021Q2. Investimenti esteri diretti 22.5 miliardi Usd.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-07.

India 013

«India attracted foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows of $22.53 billion during the first three months of the fiscal year starting on April 1»

«90% higher than the April-June period last year»

«India’s automobile industry accounted for 27% of the total FDI equity inflow»

«computer software and hardware and the services sectors which accounted for 17% and 11% of the inflows respectively»

* * *

«Measures taken by the Government on the fronts of FDI policy reforms»

«cut corporate tax rates»

«investment facilitation»

«ease of doing business»

«labour reforms aimed at making hiring and firing workers easier»

* * * * * * *

Le ultime frasi racchiudono la ricetta economica infallibile per ottenere simili risultati.

Gli investimenti esteri fluiscono per gradiente verso i paesi ove possano trovare condizioni ragionevoli.

Fuggono invece dai paesi ad alta tassazione, con altri costi energetici, con un mercato del lavoro ingessato da norme e regole paralizzanti.

Annualizzando questo macrodato, l’India si porta a casa quasi novanta miliardi Usd che le sono piovuti dal Cielo.

Tutto qua. In fondo, dovrebbe essere un ragionamento semplice.

*


India attracts $22.5 bln in foreign direct investment in April-June 2021-govt

New Delhi, Aug 28 (Reuters) – India attracted foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows of $22.53 billion during the first three months of the fiscal year starting on April 1, 90% higher than the April-June period last year, the government said on Saturday.

India’s automobile industry accounted for 27% of the total FDI equity inflow, emerging as the brightest sector in Asia’s third-largest economy, followed by computer software and hardware and the services sectors which accounted for 17% and 11% of the inflows respectively, the trade ministry said in a statement.

“Measures taken by the Government on the fronts of FDI policy reforms, investment facilitation and ease of doing business have resulted in increased FDI inflows into the country,” the statement added.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration has cut corporate tax rates to woo manufacturers and revive private investment, introduced new farm laws and passed labour reforms aimed at making hiring and firing workers easier.