Pubblicato in: Commercio, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Germania. Lufthansa ha fermato il 95% della flotta. Aiuti di stato.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-04-05.

Cigno. Decollo.

«Competitor American Airlines intends to apply for up to $12 billion in U.S. government aid, executives said in a memo to employees on Monday …. Lufthansa may need state support of a similar magnitude»

«Germany is in talks to provide Lufthansa with billions of euros in state aid and could take a stake in the airline, which has grounded 95% of its fleet due to the coronavirus pandemic, people close to the matter said»

«The government and airline are discussing loans as well as a possible equity investment as Lufthansa grapples to cope with Berlin’s order to all but halt its operations»

«We are in close contact with the federal government to secure our liquidity»

«Lufthansa, like other German companies, could seek a loan 80% guaranteed by state bank KfW and 20% backed by commercial banks, while an equity contribution – possibly in the form of non-voting capital – is also an option»

«The forecast for Lufthansa as a going concern is strong, so the likelihood of Lufthansa getting bridge loans from its banks and KfW is very high»

«The coronavirus crisis has cut Lufthansa’s sales from passenger flights to almost zero, but shorter working hours as well as lower fees for airports and air traffic control have brought down costs»

«Lufthansa has applied for short-time work for around 87,000 crew and ground staff at its core brand until the end of August. Short-time work is a form of state aid that allows employers to switch staff onto reduced working hours during an economic downturn to keep them on the payroll»

«British Airways è in trattative con il suo sindacato per un piano di sospensione di circa 32.000 dipendenti»

«In the United States, the treasury is preparing to provide up to $25 billion in direct grants to the airline industry»

«investors led by Singapore state investor Temasek put together a $13 billion funding package for Singapore Airlines in the single biggest rescue so far for an airline hit by the coronavirus pandemic»

* * * * * * *

La pandemia da coronavirus ha determinato una chiusura delle frontiere ed il blocco quasi totale di tutti i voli internazionali e domestici.  Di conseguenza, le compagnie aeree hanno interrotto quasi tutte le loro attività, bloccando a terra le loro flotte. Si delineano quindi consistenti perdite economiche e concreti rischi di licenziamenti che, senza adeguati aiuti statali, porterebbero alla bancarotta.

Ma il traffico aereo è di importanza strategica, e senza una sua ripresa sarebbe impossibile avviare una ripresa dei sistemi economici.

È quindi imperativo che gli stati si facciano carico dei danni subiti dalle compagnie aeree.

*


Germany in talks to inject billions into Lufthansa – sources

Germany is in talks to provide Lufthansa (LHAG.DE) with billions of euros in state aid and could take a stake in the airline, which has grounded 95% of its fleet due to the coronavirus pandemic, people close to the matter said.

The government and airline are discussing loans as well as a possible equity investment as Lufthansa grapples to cope with Berlin’s order to all but halt its operations, the people said.

“We are in close contact with the federal government to secure our liquidity”, a Lufthansa spokesman said, but declined to comment on the details.

Lufthansa is working with banks including Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) in its talks with the German government and state bank KfW, the people said. Goldman Sachs (GS.N) had been expected to secure a leading role, but it remained unclear whether the U.S. bank has been mandated, they added.

The Economy Ministry, KfW, Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs declined to comment.

Last week, Lufthansa said it had not yet applied for state aid but was in talks with lenders and authorities about what kind of help would be possible if needed.

Lufthansa, like other German companies, could seek a loan 80% guaranteed by state bank KfW and 20% backed by commercial banks, while an equity contribution – possibly in the form of non-voting capital – is also an option.

“The forecast for Lufthansa as a going concern is strong, so the likelihood of Lufthansa getting bridge loans from its banks and KfW is very high”, a person close to the matter said.

Competitor American Airlines (AAL.O) intends to apply for up to $12 billion in U.S. government aid, executives said in a memo to employees on Monday.

Lufthansa may need state support of a similar magnitude, an industry banker said.

The coronavirus crisis has cut Lufthansa’s sales from passenger flights to almost zero, but shorter working hours as well as lower fees for airports and air traffic control have brought down costs.

On Thursday, Lufthansa said that it would cancel all flights — except those to return stranded tourists — until May 3.

The head of the International Air Transport Association said that the industry is going through the biggest crisis that it has ever faced. In one of the most dramatic moves yet, British Airways (ICAG.L) is in talks with its union about a plan to suspend around 32,000 staff, a person familiar with the situation said on Thursday. Lufthansa has applied for short-time work for around 87,000 crew and ground staff at its core brand until the end of August. Short-time work is a form of state aid that allows employers to switch staff onto reduced working hours during an economic downturn to keep them on the payroll. It has been widely used by German industry, including its car sector. With planes unable to fly because of travel restrictions, compounded by a plunge in demand over fears of contagion, many airlines worldwide have said they need government support to survive. Last week, airlines urged governments to speed up bailoutsto rescue the air transport industry, as they doubled theirestimate of 2020 revenue losses from the health crisis to morethan $250 billion. Germany stands ready to take over Condor as a deal for the airline to be bought by Polish rival LOT is likely to collapse in the industry turmoil caused by the coronavirus crisis, people close to the matter have told Reuters. In the United States, the treasury is preparing to provide up to $25 billion in direct grants to the airline industry. Last week, investors led by Singapore state investor Temasek put together a $13 billion funding package for Singapore Airlines (SIAL.SI) in the single biggest rescue so far for an airline hit by the coronavirus pandemic.

Pubblicato in: Economia e Produzione Industriale, Unione Europea

Europa e Stati. Indice PMI fortemente depresso. Dati di marzo.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-04-04.

2020-04-04__Indicatori Economici 001

«Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMI) are economic indicators derived from monthly surveys of private sector companies. ….

ISM, SIPMM, and Markit Group separately compile Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys on a monthly basis by polling businesses which represent the makeup of the respective business sector. ISM’s surveys cover all NAICS categories. SIPMM survey covers all manufacturing sectors. The Markit survey covers private sector companies, but not the public sector. ….

PMI data are presented in the form of a diffusion index, which is calculated as follows

    P M I = ( P1 ∗ 1 ) + ( P2 ∗ 0.5 )

where:

    P1 = Percentage number of answers that reported an improvement.

    P2 = Percentage number of answers that reported no change.

*

Thus, if 100% of the panel reported an improvement, the index would be 100.0. If 100% reported a deterioration, the index would be zero. If 100% of the panel saw no change, the index would be 50.0 (P2 * 0.5).

Therefore, an index reading of 50.0 means that the variable is unchanged, a number over 50.0 indicates an improvement, while anything below 50.0 suggests a decline. An index of 50.0 would arise if either all respondents reported no change or the number of respondents reporting an improvement was matched by the number of respondents reporting a deterioration.» [Fonte]

* * * * * * *

Si noti come gli indici PMI per l’Italia siano particolarmente sinistrati, specie quello del settore dei servizi: sono valori da tempo di guerra.

Nel mese di marzo sono iniziati a sentirsi gli effetti delle restrizioni agli spostamenti di merci e persone, nonché il blocco della produzione non essenziale determinati dalle manovre atte a ridurre la diffusione del contagio da coronavirus.

Il prossimo mese di aprile dovrebbe manifestare valori ancora peggiori di questi.

Pubblicato in: Economia e Produzione Industriale, Materie Prime, Stati Uniti, Trump

Guerra del petrolio. Trump telefona a Mohammed bin Salman.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-04-03.

2020-04-03__Oil WTI 001

«Oil prices spiked on Thursday morning after U.S. President Donald Trump said that he spoke with the Saudi Crown Prince, and hoped and expected that Saudi Arabia and Russia would “cut back approximately 10 Million Barrels, and maybe substantially more,” sending oil prices soaring by 20 percent»

«Just spoke to my friend MBS (Crown Prince) of Saudi Arabia, who spoke with President Putin of Russia, & I expect & hope that they will be cutting back approximately 10 Million Barrels, and maybe substantially more which, if it happens, will be GREAT for the oil & gas industry!»

«Oil prices soared immediately after the tweet, with WTI Crude soaring 25.90 percent at $25.51 as of 11:04 a.m. EDT and Brent Crude surging 20.57 percent at $29.83»

* * * * * * *

2020-04-03__Oil WTI 002

Potenza di una telefonata.

2020-04-03__Oil WTI 003

Finché dura….

*

Trump Tweet Sends Oil Soaring 25%

Oil prices spiked on Thursday morning after U.S. President Donald Trump said that he spoke with the Saudi Crown Prince, and hoped and expected that Saudi Arabia and Russia would “cut back approximately 10 Million Barrels, and maybe substantially more,” sending oil prices soaring by 20 percent. 

“Just spoke to my friend MBS (Crown Prince) of Saudi Arabia, who spoke with President Putin of Russia, & I expect & hope that they will be cutting back approximately 10 Million Barrels, and maybe substantially more which, if it happens, will be GREAT for the oil & gas industry!” President Trump tweeted on Thursday.

Oil prices soared immediately after the tweet, with WTI Crude soaring 25.90 percent at $25.51 as of 11:04 a.m. EDT and Brent Crude surging 20.57 percent at $29.83.

According to the Saudi’s official news agency, SPA, Saudi Arabia is calling for an urgent meeting for OPEC+ states “and another group of countries”.

Making no mention of specific numbers.

The press agency later went on to make mention of the relationship with the United States.

Earlier today, prices were already gaining more than 8 percent after the market began to tentatively hope that former allies Russia and Saudi Arabia could re-launch talks on propping up oil prices, which are too low for both of those economies, regardless of their claims of ‘resilience’ even at these prices.

After weeks of ‘no-backing-down’ in the oil price war, the former allies Saudi Arabia and Russia have started hinting at readiness to re-launch cooperation to save oil prices from sliding further amid the massive demand loss in the coronavirus pandemic.

“Saudi Arabia has always welcomed and supported cooperation among oil producers in their efforts to stabilize the oil market during the current crisis, based on the principles of fairness and equity,” a Gulf source familiar with Saudi Arabia’s thinking told Reuters on Thursday but said that the OPEC+ break-up was Russia’s fault.

Russia, for its part, has decided it’s economically unfeasible for its producers to boost oil production right now, so Moscow called off an earlier promise to also increase supply, albeit at a much lower rate than Saudi Arabia.

With U.S. shale producers suffering the first immediate blow from the Saudi-Russian oil price war, U.S. President Trump discussed the situation on the oil market with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin earlier this week and said he held a separate phone call with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Pubblicato in: Economia e Produzione Industriale

Giappone. Indice dei direttori acquisti (PMI) 33.8.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-04-03.

2020-04-03__PMI Giappone 001

Indice dei direttori acquisti (PMI) del settore servizi giapponese.

Il sondaggio include le seguenti categorie: trasporti, comunicazione, intermediazione finanziaria, servizi alle imprese, servizi alla persona, IT e computing, hotel e ristoranti. Ogni risposta ricevuta è ponderata in base all’ampiezza dell’azienda interessata e al contributo della stessa nella produzione totale di servizi per il sotto indice a cui appartiene. Questo fa sì che le risposte delle compagnie maggiori abbiano un impatto maggiore sulla composizione dell’indice finale rispetto alle aziende minori. I risultati sono presentati in base alla domanda posta e mostrano le percentuali degli intervistati che riportando un miglioramento, un peggioramento o una conferma rispetto al mese precedente. Da queste percentuali si ricava un indice totale. Il livello di 50,0 indica che non ci sono state variazioni rispetto al mese precedente. Al di sopra di 50,0 indica un aumento (o miglioramento), sotto 50,0 indica un calo (o peggioramento). Più il livello si allontana dal 50,0, maggiore sarà il cambiamento segnalato.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Stati Uniti

Usa. Goldman Sachs prevede un pil Q2 a -34% ed un pil Q3 a +19%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-04-02.

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

La Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta prevede un Pil Q1 a +2.7%.

Questo dato non tiene conto degli effetti indotti dalla pandemia da coronavirus, e come tale deve essere interpretato.

«In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 beyond its impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate the impact of COVID-19 on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model.»

*

Goldman Sachs avanza invece due distinte previsioni, che tengono conto degli effetti della pandemia.

Secondo Trimestre.

«The world’s largest economy will shrink an annualized 34% in the second quarter, compared with an earlier estimate of 24%, …. Unemployment will soar to 15% by mid-year, up from a previous forecast of 9%»

Terzo Trimestre.

«The economists, however, now expect a stronger recovery in the third quarter, with gross domestic product expanding 19%»

* * * * * * *

«The new forecasts come days after President Donald Trump extended U.S. “social distancing” guidelines to contain the virus until the of April, abandoning a plan for an earlier end»

Il problema delle ipotesi di lavoro è il solito: quanto tempo duri la fase acuta della pandemia e la velocità con la quale la situazione produttiva possa tornare alla norma.

Non ci si terrorizzi dal calo del secondo trimestre, che è per sua natura temporaneo.

*

Goldman Sachs says its gloomy prediction of 24% U.S. GDP contraction in Q2 wasn’t nearly grim enough

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expects the U.S. economy to experience a far deeper slump than previously anticipated as the coronavirus pandemic hammers businesses, causing a wave of mass unemployment.

The world’s largest economy will shrink an annualized 34% in the second quarter, compared with an earlier estimate of 24%, economists led by Jan Hatzius wrote in a report. Unemployment will soar to 15% by mid-year, up from a previous forecast of 9%, they wrote.

The economists, however, now expect a stronger recovery in the third quarter, with gross domestic product expanding 19%.

“Our estimates imply that a bit more than half of the near-term output decline is made up by year-end,” they wrote. While there’s a risk of longer-term fallout on income and spending, the aggressive action by the Federal Reserve and the government should help to contain this.

The new forecasts come days after President Donald Trump extended U.S. “social distancing” guidelines to contain the virus until the of April, abandoning a plan for an earlier end.

Several major U.S. retailers are halting pay for hundreds of thousands of workers as they struggle to cope with the slump in demand caused by measures to control the spread of the pandemic. The White House and congressional Democrats are preparing for a fourth round of economic stimulus to get the U.S. through the outbreak.

Pubblicato in: Economia e Produzione Industriale, Medicina e Biologia

Bangladesh. Coronavirus. L’Industria dell’abbigliamento quasi chiusa.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-03-31.

2020-03-28__Bangladesh 000

Il Bangladesh è un paese misero.

«Gross Domestic Product of Bangladesh grew 7.9% in 2018 compared to last year. This rate is 3 -tenths of one percent higher than the figure of 7.6% published in 2017.

The GDP figure in 2018 was $288,424 million, Bangladesh is number 43 in the ranking of GDP of the 196 countries that we publish. The absolute value of GDP in Bangladesh rose $26,347 million with respect to 2017.

The GDP per capita of Bangladesh in 2018 was $1,788, $147 higher than in 2017, it was $1,641. To view the evolution of the GDP per capita, it is interesting to look back a few years and compare these data with those of 2008 when the GDP per capita in Bangladesh was $656.

If we order the countries according to their GDP per capita, Bangladesh is in 150th position, its population has a low level of affluence compare to the 196 countries whose GDP we publish.»

*

Nel volgere di venti anni, il Bangladesh ha quintuplicato il proprio pil, ma il pil procapite nel 2018 si era attestato a 1,788 Usd: davvero poco anche tenendo conto del basso costo della vita.

La pandemia da coronavirus potrebbe stroncare questa crescita.

«Bangladesh’s garment industry risks collapse»

«The coronavirus pandemic is taking a heavy toll on Bangladesh, which is the world’s second-largest garment exporter»

«The industry is rapidly losing orders, and millions of jobs are at stake.»

«Bangladesh’s ready-made garments sector accounts for around 80% of the country’s manufacturing income, with at least 4 million workers depending on it»

«The country’s garment sector depends hugely on export orders, which have drastically decreased due to the rise of the novel coronavirus cases around the world, including Europe and the US»

«So far, Bangladesh has lost around $1.5 billion (€1.4 billion), which has impacted some 1.2 million workers,»

«Foreign brands are increasingly delaying and canceling orders»

«Since the increase of COVID-19 cases in Europe and the US, Bangladeshi factories are losing around $100 million (€92 million) per day»

«We are trying not to shut down the factories»

«the factory owners will go bankrupt due to the crisis. It is only a matter of time now»

«They are even canceling orders that have reached their ports or have already been shipped»

«Europe is Bangladesh’s biggest garment export market with almost 60% of total consumption»

«In the 2018-19 fiscal year, the South Asian country exported over $19.6 billion worth of garment products to Europe.»

«Our factories are about to close and we will have no business. Some 4.1 million workers will go hungry if we don’t fulfill our commitment to their welfare»

* * * * * * *

La depressione economica indotta dalla pandemia da coronavirus colpisce in modo diretto i paesi coinvolti dal processo epidemico ed in modo indiretto quelli solo lievemente affetti, ma il cui export dipendeva dalla buona salute economica degli altri.

Questo dato dovrebbe indurre una profonda riflessione su quanto sarà difficile la ripresa.

La liberazione dal coronavirus gioverà ben poco a quelle zone, od anche a quelle nazioni, il sistema economico delle quali dipendeva da zone o nazioni ancora sotto epidemia, e quindi economicamente in stallo.

La ripresa sarà in ogni caso lunga, difficile e carica di triboli.

*


Coronavirus: Bangladesh’s garment industry risks collapse.

The coronavirus pandemic is taking a heavy toll on Bangladesh, which is the world’s second-largest garment exporter. The industry is rapidly losing orders, and millions of jobs are at stake.

Bangladesh’s ready-made garments sector accounts for around 80% of the country’s manufacturing income, with at least 4 million workers depending on it. Although the number of COVID-19 cases is not too high in the South Asian country, the pandemic poses a great risk to this sector and the livelihood of garment workers.

The country’s garment sector depends hugely on export orders, which have drastically decreased due to the rise of the novel coronavirus cases around the world, including Europe and the US.

So far, Bangladesh has lost around $1.5 billion (€1.4 billion), which has impacted some 1.2 million workers, according to Dr. Rubana Haq, president of Bangladesh’s Garment Exporters and Manufacturers Association (BGMEA).

Foreign brands are increasingly delaying and canceling orders, Haq added.

Since the increase of COVID-19 cases in Europe and the US, Bangladeshi factories are losing around $100 million (€92 million) per day.

Haq told DW that BGMEA is trying to secure workers’ wages. “We are trying not to shut down the factories,” she said, adding that it is hard to do so because of a substantial drop in exports.

“Our orders until June have been canceled,” Siddiqur Rahman, vice president of the Federation of the Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industries (FBCCI), told DW. “The situation is dire,” he added.

Rahman fears that the factory owners will go bankrupt due to the crisis. “It is only a matter of time now. I think all the factories will be closed.”

Calls for support

BGMEA claims that foreign companies are also canceling orders that are already in production or completed.

“Foreign companies talk about human rights and compliance. Then why are they being unfair to us?” Haq said. “They are even canceling orders that have reached their ports or have already been shipped.”

Europe is Bangladesh’s biggest garment export market with almost 60% of total consumption. In the 2018-19 fiscal year, the South Asian country exported over $19.6 billion worth of garment products to Europe.

Haq urged international companies to support Bangladesh’s garment sector during and urged the German government to take necessary measures to help Bangladesh’s garment sector.

“Your stores are closed. Our factories are about to close and we will have no business. Some 4.1 million workers will go hungry if we don’t fulfill our commitment to their welfare,” Haq said in a video message, adding that orders that are already in production should not be canceled.

She said that Bangladesh would need support for at least three months to keep its factories running.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Italia. Confindustria. Verosimile a maggio un pil al -6%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-03-30.

Bosch Hieronymus. Ascesa all'Empireo. Palazzo Ducale. Venezia.

«Se blocco attività dovesse durare fino a maggio»

«Orientativamente abbiamo fatto un calcolo fino a maggio, perché una delle criticità di questa vicenda è che non sappiamo il tempo»

«se dovesse durare fino a maggio potremmo avere un calo del cosiddetto prodotto interno lordo fino al 6%»

«trasformare il debito accumulato in questi mesi in debito di lungo periodo, a 30 anni»

* * * * * * *

Tutte le previsioni che al momento sono state fatte sembrerebbero essere sostanzialmente corrette, ma differiscono sul tempo considerato essere necessario per mettere sotto controllo la situazione sanitaria.

La durata ipotizzata da Confindustria apparirebbe essere ragionevole, anche perché la definisce “una volta che sarà stata superata la fase più acuta”.

La proposta di

«trasformare il debito accumulato in questi mesi in debito di lungo periodo, a 30 anni»

sembrerebbe anche essa essere del tutto ragionevole.

A nostro sommesso parere, tale debito dovrebbe essere esente da interessi.

*


Boccia (Confindustria): Italia potrebbe avere calo Pil del 6%.

Se blocco attività dovesse durare fino a maggio.

“Orientativamente abbiamo fatto un calcolo fino a maggio, perché una delle criticità di questa vicenda è che non sappiamo il tempo, quindi diventa difficile dare una quantificazione di risorse. Ed è evidente che se dovesse durare fino a maggio potremmo avere un calo del cosiddetto prodotto interno lordo fino al 6%”. Lo ha affermato il presidente di Confindustria, Vincenzo Boccia intervenendo a Piazza Pulita su La 7.

In questa fase di emergenza, secondo Boccia è cruciale garantire alle aziende paralizzate di avere le liquidità necessarie per restare “vive” e poter riavviare l’attività una volta che sarà stata superata la fase più acuta. E poi trasformare il debito accumulato in questi mesi in debito di lungo periodo, a 30 anni.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Unione Europea

Germania. Pil 2020 da -7.25% fino a -20.6%, secondo la durata dell’epidemia.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-03-28.

Bosch Hieronymus. Ascesa all'Empireo. Palazzo Ducale. Venezia.

Bosch Hieronymus. Ascesa all’Empireo. Palazzo Ducale. Venezia.


«A new study warns of a hit of between 7.2 and 20.6% of GDP»

«According to a report released on Monday by Germany’s influential Ifo think tank, a partial economic shutdown could cost the country between 7.25 and 20.6% of GDP, based on a range of estimates assuming partial shutdowns ranging from one to three months in length»

«The costs are likely to exceed anything Germany has experienced in recent decades as a result of economic crises or natural disasters»

«The crisis will also cause massive upheaval on the job market. This could put the situation at the high point of the financial crisis into the shadows»

«the most crucial part of the emergency budget is a hefty health care spending increase of more than €3 billion ($3.2 billion), seeking to double the number of intensive care beds — currently around 28,000 — available in Germany»

«Small businesses and independent operators such as artists or carers will be eligible for loans of up to €15,000 over a period of three months to cover costs of inactivity»

«However, Economy Minister Altmaier said there were limits to what the government could do, warning companies that “we are not here to plug the gaps of lost turnover.”»

«Collection-only at restaurants, air travel virtually halted

German restaurants were put on the front lines of the fight against corona on Monday, with all of them effectively forced to close after Sunday’s government advice to avoid all public meetings of two or more people»

«Airlines are another industry facing obvious and large disruption as global travel stutters to a halt. German flagship carrier Lufthansa is effectively in survival mode, having grounded 95% of its regular flights late last week, at least until April 19»

«That was met with laughter from our competitors at first. But I can tell you, nobody in our industry is laughing any more»

«The DAX has shed around one-third of its value just in the last month, a rate of decline rivalling that of the financial crash»

* * * * * * *

Questa emergenza avrà un costo ben salato.

Le stime di una perdita del pil del -7.25% nel caso di un mese di quarantena totale e del -20.6% nel caso di tre mesi sembrerebbero essere molto verosimili.

L’unico elemento su cui si potrebbe opinare è la durata stimata del fermo totale della nazione. Tutti ci si augura che possa essere della minore durata possibile, ma nessuno si stupirebbe se dovesse durare anche sei mesi.

Il problema della sopravvivenza della Lufthansa è poi cruciale: al momento della ripresa dovrebbe poter essere messa in condizione di riprendere il suo lavoro, strategico nei trasporti della nazione.

*


Coronavirus: Germany counts costs of economic shutdown.

Trying to contain the coronavirus could prove costly. A new study warns of a hit of between 7.2 and 20.6% of GDP. As restaurants and other services shut down on Monday, the government announced an emergency budget.

Germany’s finance and economy ministers on Monday unveiled an emergency budget with a raft of measures aiming to control the costs of the coronavirus.  They aim to pass it into law by the end of the week. Neither minced their words on the prospect of a recession in 2020.

“We don’t need to speculate; it’s clear there will be a negative economic impact. Anyone could say that just by looking at the empty high streets,” Finance Minister Olaf Scholz told journalists in Berlin. Economy Minister Peter Altmaier added that this downturn would “probably be at least as large as during the financial crisis” of 2007-8.

According to a report released on Monday by Germany’s influential Ifo think tank, a partial economic shutdown could cost the country between 7.25 and 20.6% of GDP, based on a range of estimates assuming partial shutdowns ranging from one to three months in length.

“The costs are likely to exceed anything Germany has experienced in recent decades as a result of economic crises or natural disasters,” Ifo’s president, Clemens Fuest, said. “The crisis will also cause massive upheaval on the job market. This could put the situation at the high point of the financial crisis into the shadows.”

Bridging loans for small businesses, huge health spend boost

In total, the government is earmarking up to €750 billion that it could spend as a result of the coronavirus fallout. To give an idea of the sheer scope, that sum is almost double the entirety of the federal government’s previously approved 2020 budget. 

Perhaps the most crucial part of the emergency budget is a hefty health care spending increase of more than €3 billion ($3.2 billion), seeking to double the number of intensive care beds — currently around 28,000 — available in Germany.

Small businesses and independent operators such as artists or carers will be eligible for loans of up to €15,000 over a period of three months to cover costs of inactivity. Larger companies will have the opportunity to take out bridging capital via a special fund, plus the prospect of direct government intervention at a later stage if necessary. The lending powers of Germany’s KfW state development bank will also be expanded drastically.

Other measures agreed in the budget include protection for renters unable to meet their bills, with non-payment owing to the coronavirus ruled out as reasonable grounds for eviction. Rules on short-time work will also be altered, aiming to stop companies from having to let people go if they fail to provide sufficient hours to staff. Insolvency rules will also be loosened, while publicly traded companies will be permitted to hold their shareholder meetings via videoconference rather than being obliged to hold a physical meeting.

However, Economy Minister Altmaier said there were limits to what the government could do, warning companies that “we are not here to plug the gaps of lost turnover.”

Collection-only at restaurants, air travel virtually halted

German restaurants were put on the front lines of the fight against corona on Monday, with all of them effectively forced to close after Sunday’s government advice to avoid all public meetings of two or more people. Eateries are now permitted to provide food only for collection and home delivery. Similarly, service providers such as hair salons and tattoo parlors — where it is not possible to maintain a 1.5-meter (5-foot) gap between people — will have to shut their doors for at least two weeks.

Airlines are another industry facing obvious and large disruption as global travel stutters to a halt. German flagship carrier Lufthansa is effectively in survival mode, having grounded 95% of its regular flights late last week, at least until April 19.

“We cut our flight plans more severely and far more swiftly than our competition,” Lufthansa’s Carsten Spohr said when announcing the decision. “That was met with laughter from our competitors at first. But I can tell you, nobody in our industry is laughing any more.”

In Berlin, 31-year-old Jan woke on Monday to a call from his boss saying he would have to let him go. Jan works at a startup specializing in web design solutions for hotels. Typically, he and his colleagues might be working on thousands of orders from all around Europe. Last week, the company only received 60 orders. Jan’s boss was planning to fire roughly half his workforce and register the remainder as short-time workers. 

Finance Minister Scholz also had the stock markets in mind on Monday. He explained that a financial market stabilization fund, dormant for years since the financial crash but still technically available as a “legal instrument,” would be resurrected as part of the emergency spending plans.

On the floor in Frankfurt, the benchmark DAX index dropped a further 3% at opening on Monday, albeit regaining most of these losses in the minutes immediately following Scholz and Altmaier’s press conference. The DAX has shed around one-third of its value just in the last month, a rate of decline rivalling that of the financial crash.

Scholz, a Social Democrat, and Altmaier, a Christian Democrat, thanked each other on Monday for the speed with which the Cabinet agreed on the new spending measures. Both alluded to German efforts to reduce debt in recent years, saying this prudence had put the government in a position to respond quickly and aggressively.

Like so many in various industries in Germany just now, Chancellor Merkel was at home when she took part in the talks with her Cabinet early on Monday. She is currently in quarantine in her Berlin apartment after a doctor who gave her a vaccine on Friday subsequently tested positive for COVID-19. A first test has come back negative, but she will have to take a further test in the coming days.

Pubblicato in: Commercio, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Medicina e Biologia

Istat. Memoria sottoposta alla V Commissione del Senato.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-03-27.

2020-03-26__Istat 001

L’Istat ha sottoposto alla Commissione del Senato, programmazione economica e bilancio, una ponderosa memoria scritta, che sintetizza numericamente gli effetti dei provvedimenti governativi sul sistema economico.

2020-03-26__Istat 002

«Le imprese, classificate in base all’attività prevalente, attive nei settori le cui attività non vengono sospese sono poco meno di 2,3 milioni di unità su 4,5 milioni (il 48,7% del totale), generano circa due terzi del valore aggiunto complessivo (circa 512 miliardi di euro) ed il 53,1% delle esportazioni totali”. Rileva l’Istat, con riferimento ai Dpcm dell’11 e del 22 marzo, cui sono stati aggiunti i settori della difesa ed aerospazio, a prescindere dalle attività in smart working.

 “Nel 2019, il numero di occupati è pari a 23 milioni 360 mila (media annua); circa i due terzi (il 66%) è occupato in uno dei settori di attività economica ancora attivi, per un totale di 15 milioni 434 mila occupati e il restante 34%, (7 milioni 926 mila occupati) in uno dei settori dichiarati sospesi dal decreto”, scrive ancora l’istituto di statistica, spiegando che la classificazione “non distingue tra quanti possono lavorare in smart working.

Inoltre “è immediato ipotizzare che il gap di produzione/valore aggiunto si determinerà in tutta la sua ampiezza nel secondo trimestre, con tutti gli indicatori e le statistiche relative all’economia e al mercato del lavoro che ne registreranno i risultati”.».

2020-03-26__Istat 003

*

Riassumendo.

Per effetto dei Dpcm

– sono stati fermati 7.926 milioni di lavoratori;

– sono rimasti attivi 15.434 milioni di lavoratori impiegati in attività economiche che producono 512 miliardi di euro di valore aggiunto, ossia i 2/3 del totale, ed il 53.1% delle esportazioni totali;

– gli effetti econometrici saranno evidenti dai dati relativi al secondo trimestre.

*

Il pil potrebbe scendere in tale periodo del 33% circa.

* * * * * * *

«La crisi da Covid-19 ha iniziato a investire la popolazione e l’economia cinese in gennaio, toccando con i suoi effetti epidemici l’Italia nell’ultima settimana di febbraio. I primi provvedimenti generalizzati di distanziamento sociale, che hanno provocato da subito ricadute economiche rilevanti, sono stati introdotti nei primi giorni di marzo. Si può dunque essere certi che l’impatto sui dati economici emerga proprio con gli indicatori congiunturali riferiti a tale mese»

«La fase di debolezza dell’economia italiana riscontrata nel corso del 2019 si era aggravata nel quarto trimestre quando la variazione del prodotto interno lordo (Pil), misurato in termini reali, ha messo in evidenza un calo dell’attività dello 0,3% rispetto al trimestre precedente e il tasso di variazione tendenziale si è azzerato»

«Per il totale dell’economia il valore aggiunto in volume ha registrato nel quarto trimestre una contrazione congiunturale dello 0,3%.»

«Nell’attuale contesto d’incertezza, che non ha precedenti nel dopoguerra, cominciano ad essere annunciati i risultati di esercizi volti a costruire scenari di previsione»

«La Bce ha predisposto il Pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP), nuovo programma di acquisto di attività

finanziarie esteso a tutto il 2020. La Commissione Ue ha, con l’attivazione della “general escape clause”, sospeso l’applicazione del Patto di stabilità e crescita»

«Per quanto riguarda le imprese, classificate in base all’attività prevalente, quelle attive nei settori le cui attività non vengono sospese sono poco meno di 2,3 milioni di unità su 4,5 milioni (il 48,7% del totale), generano circa due terzi del valore aggiunto complessivo (circa 512 miliardi di euro) ed il 53,1% delle esportazioni totali. In termini di dimensioni aziendali, le imprese che proseguono la propria attività sono il 50,7% tra le microimprese (quelle con meno di 10 addetti), il 58,7% tra le piccole imprese, il 69,2% tra le medie imprese. Nel segmento delle grandi imprese (quelle con 250 e più addetti), l’incidenza delle aziende che proseguono l’attività è pari al 71,6% per quelle con 250-499 addetti ed al 67,6% per le unità con 500 e più addetti. Infine, la continuità dell’attività coinvolge il 51,2% delle imprese esportatrici e il 48% di quelle non esportatrici»

«Emerge che nel caso delle attività manifatturiere sono inclusi in comparti potenzialmente attivi imprese che pesano per il 37% degli addetti e il 49% dell’intero settore. Per il complesso dei servizi le incidenze sono più elevate (rispettivamente 58 e 60%)»

«Nel commercio, che è il comparto del terziario con maggiore dimensione in termini di occupati (oltre 1,7 milioni), le attività considerate attive incidono per il 50% quanto ad addetti e per il 55% considerando il fatturato.»

«Nel 2019, il numero di occupati è pari a 23 milioni 360 mila (media annua); circa i due terzi (il 66%) è occupato in uno dei settori di attività economica ancora attivi, per un totale di 15 milioni 434 mila occupati e il restante 34%, (7 milioni 926 mila occupati) in uno dei settori dichiarati sospesi dal decreto»

«Tra i dipendenti a tempo indeterminato, quelli occupati nei settori di attività economica ancora attivi sono il 69,6% (10 milioni 429 mila occupati); il valore scende se si passa ai dipendenti a termine (62,7%, pari a 1 milione 922 mila occupati), ai lavoratori autonomi senza dipendenti (60,4»

«Il Servizio Sanitario Nazionale tra il 2010 e il 2017 (ultimo anno con dati disponibili) ha registrato una riduzione di 42.861 unità (-6,7%). Nel 2017 il SSN contava su 603.375 unità di personale, i medici erano 101.100 (-5,9% rispetto al 2010) e il personale infermieristico 253.430 (-3,9%).»

«Nel 2018 il personale medico addetto alle cure primarie ammonta a circa 43 mila medici di medicina generale (MMG) e 7.500 pediatri di libera scelta (PLS). Rispetto al 2010 i MMG sono diminuiti di 2.891 unità e i PLS di 219 unità»

«Nel 2018, secondo la Rilevazione sulle forze di lavoro, gli occupati del settore turistico inteso in senso ampio sono 1 milione 621 mila, e rappresentano il 7% del totale degli occupati. Negli ultimi anni, grazie a un aumento di 259 mila unità rispetto al 2013, l’incidenza risulta in crescita (era il 6,1%).»

«Le persone disabili fino a 64 anni di età che si avvalgono dei centri diurni risultano circa 44.300 nel 20176, di cui oltre 27.000 nelle strutture a titolarità comunale e circa 17.000 nelle strutture a titolarità privata o di altri soggetti pubblici ma con contribuzione da parte dei Comuni. A questi si aggiungono oltre 60.000 anziani, di cui circa 55.000 in strutture comunali e i rimanenti 5.000 in strutture finanziate dai Comuni.»

* * * * * * *


Contributo al Parlamento.

Esame del disegno di legge A.S. 1766 – Conversione in legge del decreto-legge 17 marzo 2020, n. 18. Testo completo.

Roma, 25 marzo 2020

Memoria scritta dell’Istituto nazionale di statistica

In questa memoria scritta l’Istat intende offrire un contributo conoscitivo utile all’esame del disegno di legge A.S. 1766 per la conversione in legge del decreto-legge 17 marzo 2020, n. 18, recante misure di potenziamento del Servizio sanitario nazionale e di sostegno economico per famiglie, lavoratori e imprese connesse all’emergenza epidemiologica da COVID-19.

È doveroso premettere che l’Istituto alla data odierna non dispone ancora di informazioni in grado di quantificare l’impatto sull’economia italiana delle misure introdotte per contrastare l’emergenza sanitaria, proprio per il brevissimo lasso di tempo intercorso dall’inizio del manifestarsi della crisi e per il rapido succedersi di estensioni e aggiustamenti dei provvedimenti in essere.

La crisi da Covid-19 ha iniziato a investire la popolazione e l’economia cinese in gennaio, toccando con i suoi effetti epidemici l’Italia nell’ultima settimana di febbraio. I primi provvedimenti generalizzati di distanziamento sociale, che hanno provocato da subito ricadute economiche rilevanti, sono stati introdotti nei primi giorni di marzo. Si può dunque essere certi che l’impatto sui dati economici emerga proprio con gli indicatori congiunturali riferiti a tale mese.

Data questa premessa, i dati attualmente a disposizione dell’Istituto consentono di fornire sia un quadro della situazione economica alle soglie della crisi sanitaria (paragrafo 1) sia un’analisi della struttura di alcuni settori, completata da quantificazioni della dimensione di diversi comparti produttivi che può essere di una qualche utilità per valutare l’estensione e l’articolazione dei segmenti di sistema produttivo interessati alle chiusure previste dai Decreti del Presidente del Consiglio dei Ministri dell’11 e del 22 marzo u.s. (paragrafo 2). Infine il documento mette a disposizione alcune informazioni di contesto in merito a specifici articoli del decreto-legge in discussione (paragrafo 3).

Nota. Il 25 marzo 2020 alle ore 14.29

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Unione Europea

Danimarca. ‘Two-thirds of small businesses could collapse within 10 weeks’.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-03-26.

2020-03-25__Danimarca 001

«Denmark’s response includes financial help to freelancers and students, compensation for fixed expenses such as rent and easier access to state-guaranteed loans. But some worry even with that, two-thirds of small businesses could collapse within 10 weeks.»

* * *

«Denmark: How a ‘high-tax’ state responds to coronavirus»

«A week ago (Sunday 15 March), Danish companies could breath a small sigh of relief, as prime minister Mette Frederiksen announced a new economic help package»

«It offers to cover 75 percent of employee salaries in businesses under budget pressure from the Covid-19 pandemic. For staff paid by the hour, the maximum coverage is 90 percent»

«Her initiative aims at avoiding mass firings in times of income uncertainty, where especially the hospitality industry, the export sector and trade markets suffer.»

«On Friday 13 March, Danish schools officially closed and most public-sector workers were sent home for a two-week period»

«Not surprisingly, that has been quite a blow for independent business owners in terms of their customer base»

«They are currently experiencing a near-total collapse in revenue due to the forced closures.»

«It is important to support our workers. Now, they remain permanently on stand-by, until the wheels start turning again»

«’Force Majeure’: so many unknowns»

«Yet, the political speed seemingly comes at a cost of judicial and administrative transparency»

«We are very much affected, and our active staff has been reduced to 85-90 percent»

«In his view, there is no doubt that the administrative burden for the public sector in the wake of these packages is going to be huge»

«We need to separate between a fix of the immediate issues and supporting the economy at large. The salary package is all about the former»

«Christensen suggests to increase the purchasing power of each individual Dane by releasing frozen holiday allowances and issuing a check for 1,000 DKK per month until the country experiences two quarters of production growth»

«the corona virus can cost Danish society a GDP drop of six percent»

«more than two-thirds of small companies (up to 20 employees) risk bankruptcy within the next 10 weeks»

* * * * * * *

La Danimarca sta esperendo la crisi sanitaria ed economica da coronavirus come tutti gli altri paesi europei, ma forse le sue piccole attività economiche sono più fortemente esposte che altrove.

Prevedono un drop del pil attorno al 6%, ma si prospetta uno sterminio delle piccole attività.

«more than two-thirds of small companies (up to 20 employees) risk bankruptcy within the next 10 weeks»

Dieci settimane sono un lasso di tempo molto breve.

*


Denmark: How a ‘high-tax’ state responds to coronavirus.

A week ago (Sunday 15 March), Danish companies could breath a small sigh of relief, as prime minister Mette Frederiksen announced a new economic help package.

The package was negotiated between the government and social partners in a record time of just 24 hours.

It offers to cover 75 percent of employee salaries in businesses under budget pressure from the Covid-19 pandemic. For staff paid by the hour, the maximum coverage is 90 percent.

“Hold back the walking papers [redundancy notices]”, appealed Frederiksen during the press conference. Her initiative aims at avoiding mass firings in times of income uncertainty, where especially the hospitality industry, the export sector and trade markets suffer.

On Friday 13 March, Danish schools officially closed and most public-sector workers were sent home for a two-week period.

Four days later, the police prohibited public gatherings with more than 10 persons and ordered all restaurants, cafes and hairdressers to shut down until the end of the month.

Not surprisingly, that has been quite a blow for independent business owners in terms of their customer base.

Trying to keep staff on

One of them is Henrik Jørgensen, a successful restaurateur from Silkeborg. His family owns Hotel Dania, Hotel Himmelbjerget and the restaurant Underhuset. They are currently experiencing a near-total collapse in revenue due to the forced closures.

Jørgensen believes the government help to be vital for the survival of small businesses in times, where Danes stay home to prevent a national spreading of Covid-19.

“We sent all our staff home on the new compensation package, where we get 75 percent of their salary including benefits covered by the state,” he says.

The only other alternative had been to un-employ his staff temporarily and leave them with their designated unemployment benefits [called “dagpenge” in Denmark] – an option that would obscure the cooperative relationship between owner and staff, as the latter would not be legally obliged to come back upon re-opening.

As part of the new package, everyone contributes to maintaining existing contracts. While the state pays three-quarters, Henrik provides the last 25 percent of the salary. In return, each of his around 30 employees give up five paid vacation days.

“It is important to support our workers. Now, they remain permanently on stand-by, until the wheels start turning again. A valuable way of showing, that we stand together,” he explains.

The state’s salary compensation runs from March to June, and the target group is companies, who have to lower their work force with 30 percent or fire more than 50 persons.

The monthly payment cap is set to 23,000 DKK [€3,077] for regular employees and 26,000 for the hourly-paid.

‘Force Majeure’: so many unknowns

Denmark’s salary package is just one out of many swift decisions taken by the government over the past weeks.

On Thursday (19 March), all parties spanning from the Liberal Alliance on the right to the Red-Green Alliance on the left agreed to spend a potential three-digit billon amount to steer Denmark through the costs of the corona-lockdown.

That includes financial help to freelancers and students, compensation for fixed expenses such as rent and easier access to state-guaranteed loans.

Yet, the political speed seemingly comes at a cost of judicial and administrative transparency. Allan Nielsen, manager for Forenede Hotelservice who cleans hotels all over the country, still awaits the final details of the proposal.

“We are very much affected, and our active staff has been reduced to 85-90 percent. The current ‘force majeure’ [unforseen circumstances] lasts until 29 March. While the salary package is very attractive for us, we still need to calculate the pros and cons, once it is finalised,” he says.

In his view, there is no doubt that the administrative burden for the public sector in the wake of these packages is going to be huge.

However, Denmark is privileged to have a pro-active government. “They are doing an amazing job addressing our challenges. It is encouraging to see our democracy working in unity,” Nielsen notes.

Short-term vs Long-term

Currently, the public finances of the Danish welfare state are in good condition, according to economist Lars Christensen. In that light, the modest boost offered through the help package is insufficient, he believes.

“We need to separate between a fix of the immediate issues and supporting the economy at large. The salary package is all about the former. The government hasn’t initiated any fiscal stimulus. I believe it should in order to create trust amongst consumers and investors that this crisis won´t be long-term,” he says.

Specifically, Christensen suggests to increase the purchasing power of each individual Dane by releasing frozen holiday allowances and issuing a check for 1,000 DKK per month until the country experiences two quarters of production growth.

He projects that the corona virus can cost Danish society a GDP drop of six percent.

According to a recent survey by the organisation SMVdanmark, more than two-thirds of small companies (up to 20 employees) risk bankruptcy within the next 10 weeks.

The organisation criticises the current government plan for not allowing people to work while receiving compensatory salaries and for not covering 100 percent for stores on forced closure.

Jørgensen remains optimistic. To him, the help package sends a strong symbolic signal. “It creates positivity and a national community feeling of being able to cope with this crisis collectively,” he says.

As of writing, the current number of infected people in Denmark is 1396 with 13 fatalities, according to the Statens Serum Institut.