Pubblicato in: Economia e Produzione Industriale, Sistemi Politici

Macron. L’indice Ifop di popolarità è crollato di 10 punti.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-07-25.

Macron Charli Ebdo 001

«French President Emmanuel Macron’s popularity rating has dropped 10 points in a month»

*

«Emmanuel Macron’s approval rating slipped 10 points in a month to hit 54 percent»

*

«just 47 percent of respondents classified their assessment of him as “rather satisfied,” down from 54 percent in June»

*

«Forty-three percent of respondents said they were unsatisfied with Macron’s performance, up from 35 percent in June»

*

«Two months in office have brought challenges to Macron, however»

*

«Macron won election by preaching a more-inclusive center-right politics but now plans to cut housing assistance for low-income residents»

* * * * * * *

Questo è il dato così come esso è stato fornito.

A nostro sommesso parere è troppo presto per ragionarci sopra con cognizione di causa.

In via del tutto preliminare, prendiamo atto di come Mr Macron non sia riuscito a sfondare durante la riunione del G20, propaganda a parte. Prendiamo altresì atto di come abbia voluto, o dovuto, licenziare alcuni suoi ministri ed abbia spinto i suoi alleati a lasciare il governo. Da ultimo, l’allontanamento del generale Pierre de Villiers, appare più un gesto di stizza irrazionale rispetto ad una azione ponderata in tutte le sue conseguenze.

La situazione economica francese non è certo brillante. Se nel 2001 il pil pro capite era 32,634 euro, nel 2015 era 33,934, un incremento davvero minimo. La disoccupazione vale 10.4%, il rapporto debito pubblico su pil è salito dall’85.2% del 2011 al 95.6% del 2016. Ma il dato cardine è che il 12.1% della popolazione versa in condizione di povertà assoluta, valore che raggiunge il 31.1% per i disoccupati.

A nostro parere la popolarità del Presidente Macron sarà fortemente condizionata dalla sua capacità di rimettere in sesto il sistema produttivo francese, generando posti di lavoro e riducendo la fascia povera.


Deutsche Welle. 2017-07-24. Poll shows France no longer so sweet on Emmanuel Macron

French President Emmanuel Macron’s popularity rating has dropped 10 points in a month, according to an Ifop poll – the biggest decline for a new president since 1995. His prime minister’s popularity also dipped.

*

Emmanuel Macron’s approval rating slipped 10 points in a month to hit 54 percent, according to an Ifop poll published Sunday in the Journal du Dimanche newspaper, which reported that not since Jacques Chirac in 1995 had a newly elected president lost so much ground in such a short time.

Worse for Macron, a neoliberal who faced far-right leader Marine Le Pen in May’s presidential runoff, just 47 percent of respondents classified their assessment of him as “rather satisfied,” down from 54 percent in June, and only 7 percent said they were “very satisfied” – it was 10 percent last month. Forty-three percent of respondents said they were unsatisfied with Macron’s performance, up from 35 percent in June, including 15 percent who said they were “very unsatisfied.”

To Macron’s credit, he has had a tough month, including the resignation of General Pierre de Villiers as head of France’s armed forces following a public row over military spending cuts. France’s youngest-ever president, who has sought to project an image of authority since taking office in May, made clear during the row with the military boss that he would brook no insubordination as commander-in-chief. The center-left newspaper Liberation newspaper accused Macron of throwing a “little authoritarian fit” and suggested that he “grow up a bit.”

Macron’s corporate background

Shortly after taking office, Macron drew praise for standing up to his US and Russian counterparts – respectively, the presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin – and won a solid majority in parliament in June. Two months in office have brought challenges to Macron, however.

Press and political opponents have publicly wondered whether Macron’s dominance of the legislature could lead him to seek to concentrate power.

The 39-year-old leader has backed a controversial bill to tighten France’s security laws which includes measures that rights groups have branded as draconian. Earlier this month, he hosted Trump for the Bastille Day celebrations.

Macron won election by preaching a more-inclusive center-right politics but now plans to cut housing assistance for low-income residents. He also overruled Prime Minister Edouard Philippe with his vow to press tax cuts in 2018. Philippe lost eight points in the most recent poll, with 56 percent of respondents satisfied with his performance, according the poll of 1,947 adults carried out from July 17 to 22.

Pubblicato in: Economia e Produzione Industriale, Russia

Kremlino. Le nuove sanzioni proposte dagli Usa colpiscono la Germania.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-07-24.

Ivan IV 010

«The Kremlin said on Monday it was worried that proposed new U.S. sanctions against Moscow could hurt major investment projects with European partners»

*

«That has raised concerns in Germany which has already threatened to retaliate against the United States if the new sanctions end up penalising German firms, such as those involved with building Nord Stream 2»

*

«Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on a conference call Moscow was worried that U.S. sanctions could hit third countries»

*

«Peskov declined to comment on reports that the European Union might discuss new sanctions against Moscow over its delivery of Siemens turbines to sanctioned Crimea»

* * * * * * * *

Turkey has over 680 German firms on terrorism black list: security source

Trump. Sanzioni contro la Russia che massacrano Francia e Germania.

Germany, Dump Nord Stream 2

*

Tanto poi, almeno a quanto si deve constatare, la Germania non si cura poi troppo delle sanzioni.

Germania. Anche la Merkel piange. Wissmann: o si cambia o si fallisce.

Germania, Russia e sanzioni. VW amplierà il mega impianto a Mosca.

Sanzioni. I regolamenti ci sono per chi non sa come regolarsi.

Merkel, ci hai presi per fessi?? Che ce fai a Sevastopol?

Merkel. Turbine Siemens per la Krimea. Altre due in arrivo.

Exclusive: Russia appears to deliver more turbines to Crimea

* * * * * * *

Il problema delle sanzioni alla Russia è forse uno dei più intricati problemi al momento sul tavolino delle cancellerie.

Si direbbe che servano a tutto tranne che a quello su cui enunciano ad alta voce voler intervenire.

Senza poi voler tener conto che spesso sono utilizzate come argomento di politica interna.


Reuters. 2017-07-24. Kremlin frets U.S. sanctions may hurt European projects like Nord Stream 2

MOSCOW (Reuters) – The Kremlin said on Monday it was worried that proposed new U.S. sanctions against Moscow could hurt major investment projects with European partners, but said it was premature to say if and how it would retaliate.

The White House said on Sunday that U.S. President Donald Trump was open to signing legislation toughening sanctions on Russia after Senate and House leaders reached agreement on a bill late last week.

That has raised concerns in Germany which has already threatened to retaliate against the United States if the new sanctions end up penalising German firms, such as those involved with building Nord Stream 2, a project to build a pipeline carrying Russian gas across the Baltic.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on a conference call Moscow was worried that U.S. sanctions could hit third countries, as well as Russia, hard.

“We are working with our European partners on implementing a number of large-scale projects,” said Peskov, when asked about the possible impact of the new U.S. sanctions on projects like Nord Stream 2.

“It goes without saying that we and our European partners attach great importance to finishing these projects and we will work towards this,” he said. “That is why discussions about ‘sanctions themes’ — which could potentially obstruct these projects — are a cause of concern for us.”

Peskov said the Kremlin took “an extremely negative view” of the proposed new sanctions, calling the rhetoric surrounding them counter-productive and damaging to U.S.-Russia ties.

But he said Moscow was for now ready to wait and see what the final shape of the sanctions might be.

“As for the Washington administration’s stance on sanctions, we have seen some corrections to it,” said Peskov.

“We will wait patiently … until this position has been formulated unambiguously.”

Separately, Peskov declined to comment on reports that the European Union might discuss new sanctions against Moscow over its delivery of Siemens turbines to sanctioned Crimea.

Reuters on Monday quoted two diplomatic sources in Brussels as saying that Germany was urging the European Union to add up to four more Russian nationals and companies to the bloc’s sanctions blacklist over Siemens gas turbines delivered to Moscow-annexed Crimea.

Pubblicato in: Economia e Produzione Industriale

I fondi pensioni di S&P 500 hanno un buco di 382 miliardi Usd.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-07-24.

2017-07-22__Pensioni__001

«People who rely on their company pension plans to fund their retirement may be in for a shock»

*

«Of the 200 biggest defined-benefit plans in the S&P 500 based on assets, 186 aren’t fully funded»

*

«A big part of the reason is the poor returns they got from their assets in the superlow interest-rate environment that followed the financial crisis»

*

«the 70,000 participants in the United Parcel Service Inc. pension plan learned they won’t earn increased benefits if they work after 2022»

*

«DuPont Co. announced it would stop making payments into its pension plan for 13,000 active employees»

*

«But each time a pension plan is terminated, canceled or altered, thousands of workers are affected»

*

«It’s left a hole of $382 billion for the top 200 plans»

2017-07-22__Pensioni__002

* * * * * * *

Già a giugno avevamo segnalato questo problema:

General Electric. 31 mld Usd di buco nel fondo pensioni.

Sarebbe stato ingenuo pensare però che la situazione fosse limitata alla General Electric.

Il terzo principio della dinamica enuncia che ad ogni azione corrisponde una reazione eguale e contraria: nemmeno i sistemi economici sfuggono a questo principio. Si voglia o meno.

Non solo. Ogni azione umana è soggetta all’eterogenesi dei fini, ossia a sortire effetti del tutto differenti da quelli attesi.

Non sono oziose considerazioni teoriche: i 382 miliardi di buco si sono determinati proprio per non aver osservato codesti principi.

«Anche se vive ed agisce nelle mutevoli variazioni del tempo, la mente dell’essere umano presenta una significativa inerzia, essendo esso radicato in abitudini ed idee che tende ad assolutizzare, a ritenere essere valori assoluti, validi in ogni luogo, circostanza e tempo. L’uomo tende a comportarsi come realtà atemporale che esita nell’obnubilamento del passato, frequentemente anche rinnegato, e nella scarsa o nulla percezione del futuro. In questo contesto la libertà si denatura. Senza la percezione del futuro diventa del tutto inutile rinunciare oggi ad un bene immediato in vista di un bene maggiore futuro: l’essere umano si isola nell’immanente, quasi non più conscio delle conseguenze future delle sue scelte ed azioni. E come perde il concetto del futuro diventa indifferente ai numerosi segni dei tempi che attestano le variazioni in essere e, soprattutto, quelle che preannunciano in divenire. Alla fine, se travolto dagli eventi, non potrà nemmeno nutrire speranza: non esiste infatti speranza senza futuro. É l’esito di tutte le ideologie vissute come credi religiosi.»

*

Istituzione e gestione dei fondi pensioni implica una solida visione del futuro: si effettuano dei versamenti oggi per riscuotere la pensione domani, o dopodomani. A scarsi versamenti corrisponde una pensione miserabile, senza adeguati interessi sui versamenti effettuati corrisponde un ulteriore svilimento della pensione che si percepirà.

La crisi del 2009 dei subrime era sottesa dal peso dei debiti sovrani.

Un fardello talmente pesante da costringere le banche centrali a trasformarsi da prestatrici di ultima istanza in investitrici di ultima istanza coni quantitative earnig. Di conserva la politica dei tassi bassi, nulli e negativi.

Questa mossa inusitata e si potrebbe dire da ultima ratio, ha rabberciato il sistema economico occidentale, almeno apparentemente, ma ha concorso a generare problemi futuri forse ancora più gravi.

Ha messo in crisi il sistema bancario, che vive proprio sugli interessi che percepisce dai prestiti elargiti, ha depauperato i fondi pensioni, ha dato un artificioso sopravvento al sistema finanziario su quello economico, solo per fare alcuni esempi.

Tutto a beneficio, non voluto né gradito, della Cina.

Cina. Q1 pil +6.9%.

Cina. Pil secondo trimestre +6.9%. Un esempio da seguire.

Germania. Le banche non son quasi più tedesche.

ICB of China è la più grande banca del mondo con attivi per 3.297 mld €.

*

Non solo. Gli earning hanno portato a privilegiare la finanza sulla produzione: situazione sicuramente lucrativa nell’immediato, ma perniciosa nel futuro.

In estrema sintesi: siamo solo agli inizi del cedimento del sistema. Né si pensi che possa crollare a tempi rapidi. Si preannunciano tempi davvero molto tribolati, ma i piabti saranno tardivi.


Bloomberg. 2017-07-20. S&P 500’s Biggest Pension Plans Face $382 Billion Funding Gap

People who rely on their company pension plans to fund their retirement may be in for a shock: Of the 200 biggest defined-benefit plans in the S&P 500 based on assets, 186 aren’t fully funded. Simply put, they don’t have enough money to fund current and future retirees. The situation worsened for more than half of these funds from fiscal 2015 to 2016. A big part of the reason is the poor returns they got from their assets in the superlow interest-rate environment that followed the financial crisis. It’s left a hole of $382 billion for the top 200 plans.

Of course, the percentage of workers covered by traditional defined benefit plans—those that pay a lifetime annuity, often based on years of service and salary—has been declining for decades as companies shift to defined contribution plans such as 401(k)s. But each time a pension plan is terminated, canceled or altered, thousands of workers are affected.

Last month, the 70,000 participants in the United Parcel Service Inc. pension plan learned they won’t earn increased benefits if they work after 2022. Late last year DuPont Co. announced it would stop making payments into its pension plan for 13,000 active employees, and Yum! Brands Inc. offered some former employees a lump-sum buyout to offload some of its pension liabilities. General Electric Co. has a major problem. The company ended its defined benefit plan for new hires in 2012, but its primary plan, covering about 467,000 people, is one of the largest in the U.S. And at $31 billion, GE’s pension shortfall is the biggest in the S&P 500.

Pubblicato in: Economia e Produzione Industriale, Problemi militari

USS Gerald R. Ford. Una portaerei da cui non si decolla né si atterra. 12.9 mld Usd. Gli F-35, poi…

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-06-23.

2017-06-16__Portaerei Ford__001

Le forze armate americane hanno subito in pochi giorni due smacchi sensazionali: uno con la USS Gerald R Ford, una portaerei con problemi di atterraggio e decollo, poi con la saga degli F-35, sui quali si blocca l’erogatore di ossigeno.

*

USS Gerald R. Ford.

A prima vista potrebbe sembrare una domanda idiota il chiedersi a cosa possa servire una portaerei se poi gli aeroplani non riescano ad atterrarvi sopra e nemmeno a ripartirne.

Ma poi, nei fatti, non è una domanda idiota: è il caso della USS Gerald R. Ford.

«The newest and costliest U.S. aircraft carrier, praised by President Donald Trump and delivered to the Navy on May 31 with fanfare, has been dogged by trouble with fundamentals: launching jets from its deck and catching them when they land»

*

«Now, it turns out that the system used to capture jets landing on the USS Gerald R. Ford ballooned in cost, tripling to $961 million from $301 million»

*

«While the Navy says the landing system has been fixed, the next-generation carrier built by Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc. still hasn’t been cleared to launch F/A-18 jets carrying a full complement of fuel tanks under their wings, a handicap that could limit their effectiveness in combat»

*

«Until the catapult problem, which was discovered in 2014, is resolved it limits how much combat fuel can be carried in planes being launched from the carrier’s deck»

*

«scoffed at the carrier’s troubled electromagnetic launch system …. the Navy should stick with an old-fashioned steam-driven catapult ….The digital costs hundreds of millions of dollars more money and it’s no good.»

* * * * * * *

F-35.

F-35 fighters grounded indefinitely over oxygen issues [Cnn]

Dozens of F-35 fighter jets grounded in US due to oxygen deprivation [Guardian]

US F-35 fighter jets grounded over pilot oxygen supplies [BBC]

In sintesi: l’erogatore di ossigeno di bordo non funziona ed i piloti vanno in anossia. A latere, la cabina non mantiene la pressurizzazione.

*

«The Lockheed Martin-made F-35A fighter jets were declared combat ready by the Air Force last year, and F-35s have now deployed to Japan and Europe»

*

«An F-35 fighter wing will remain grounded as the service works to identify the cause of five incidents where pilots suffered from oxygen deprivation problems, the Air Force said Monday. …. The 56th Fighter Wing at Luke Air Force Base in Arizona suspended all F-35A flights last week after the five pilots experienced hypoxia-like symptoms, Air Force. …. The pilots all used their backup oxygen to land the planes safely.»

*

«For military jets, oxygen deprivation has been a nagging problem.»

*

«Navy investigators had identified 382 cases, including 130 that involved some form of oxygen contamination, and 114 with a failure of the jet’s system that maintains cabin pressure.»

* * * * * * *

Questi elementi ben si presterebbero a satire e facezie, che vorremmo evitare.

Tuttavia alcune considerazioni di ordine generale sembrerebbero emergere.

– Il livello degli ingegneri progettisti sta decadendo sempre più rapidamente nel tempo.

– Se è vero che tutti i grandi progetti richiedono un certo quale lasso di tempo per funzionare pienamente a regime, è altrettanto vero che i difetti dovrebbero emergere durante le simulazioni ed il periodo di prova, non dopo che sia stato dato l’ok operativo. Chi ha concesso il permesso di operatività dovrebbe essere rinviato a giudizio.

– i progettisti di ottanta anni fa, con regolo e buon senso, avevano progettato le portaerei che fecero vincere agli Stati Uniti la guerra sul mare. Esattamente come i loro colleghi nel ramo aeronautico avevano progettato e costruito i mitici B-17 e B-25. Alcuni progettisti, protetti dall’anonimato, hanno ammesso sconsolato che quelli non avevano femmine per i piedi.

– i progettisti di questa generazione hanno una fede infantile nelle nuove tecnologie e si illudono che elettronica, software ed intelligenza artificiale possano rimediare alle loro lacune matematiche, nel settore della fisica e della scienza dei materiali. Fanno un figurone nei salotti e nelle trasmissioni televisive, ma sul lavoro sono solo iettature. Ma come ingegneri, specie quelli meccanici, si qualificano con quello che producono.


Bloomberg. 2017-06-15. New U.S. Carrier Hobbled by Flaws in Launching, Landing Planes

– Landing system costs soared to fix flaws during development

– Carrier still can’t launch jets with full extra fuel tanks

*

The newest and costliest U.S. aircraft carrier, praised by President Donald Trump and delivered to the Navy on May 31 with fanfare, has been dogged by trouble with fundamentals: launching jets from its deck and catching them when they land.

Now, it turns out that the system used to capture jets landing on the USS Gerald R. Ford ballooned in cost, tripling to $961 million from $301 million, according to Navy documents obtained by Bloomberg News.

While the Navy says the landing system has been fixed, the next-generation carrier built by Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc. still hasn’t been cleared to launch F/A-18 jets carrying a full complement of fuel tanks under their wings, a handicap that could limit their effectiveness in combat.

The twin issues underscore the technical and cost challenges for the planned three-ship, $42 billion Ford class of carriers that is drawing increased congressional scrutiny. The Navy and Trump want to increase the carrier fleet from 11 authorized by law to 12.

Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman John McCain has long criticized the Navy’s management of the Ford program and joined a congressional effort that capped funding for the Ford at $12.9 billion and for a second ship under construction, the John F. Kennedy, at $11.4 billion. He’s likely to grill Navy officials about the newly disclosed landing system costs and troubled launch system during a hearing Thursday on the Navy budget.

General Atomics

The surge in costs for the development phase of the advanced arresting gear — built by General Atomics to catch planes landing — was borne by the Navy under terms of that contract. In addition, the program acquisition costs of the three systems built so far more than doubled to $532 million each from $226 million, an increase which must be paid by closely held General Atomics.

General Atomics spokeswoman Meghan Ehlke referred all questions to the Navy “per our contract.” Captain Thurraya Kent, a Navy spokeswoman, said the contractor forfeited all bonus fees it could have made during the 2009-2016 development phase and the service is reviewing the company’s master schedule for the John F. Kennedy weekly. The Navy also has placed personnel at the company’s facility in Rancho Bernardo, California, to monitor progress.

The Navy reported the cost increase to Congress last month because it breached thresholds established under a 1982 law for major weapons systems. It’s separate from the 22 percent increase since 2010 for construction of the carrier, which resulted in Congress imposing the $12.9 billion cost cap.

Trump, who has repeatedly complained about the high cost of major weapons systems — and then taken credit for reining them in — did that in a Coast Guard commencement address on May 17. The Ford “had a little bit of an overrun problem before I got here, you know that. Still going to have an overrun problem; we came in when it was finished, but we’re going to save some good money.”

‘It’s No Good’

Trump said “when we build the new aircraft carriers, they’re going to be built under budget and ahead of schedule, just remember that.” Still, the Government Accountability Office said in a new report Tuesday that the John F. Kennedy’s cost estimate “is not reliable and does not address lessons learned” from the Ford’s performance.

Trump scoffed at the carrier’s troubled electromagnetic launch system in a Time magazine interview last month, saying it doesn’t work and “you have to be Albert Einstein to figure it out.” Saying the Navy should stick with an old-fashioned steam-driven catapult, he added, “The digital costs hundreds of millions of dollars more money and it’s no good.”

Until the catapult problem, which was discovered in 2014, is resolved it limits how much combat fuel can be carried in planes being launched from the carrier’s deck.

That “would preclude normal employment” of the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and the radar-jamming Growler version because “the aircraft are limited in the types of missions that they can accomplish” without added under-wing fuel tanks, Army Lieutenant Colonel Roger Cabiness, spokesman for the Pentagon’s testing office, said in an email. He said the Navy asserts that testing on the ground has solved a software flaw that caused excessive vibrations of those fuel tanks.

“The Navy estimates the software problem will be resolved and software updates incorporated” on the carrier for testing at sea during the vessel’s post-shakedown phase between May and November of 2018, Michael Land, spokesman for the Naval Air Systems Command, said in an email. He said actual launches of jets with wing tanks will follow in 2019.

The Navy still has time to fix the catapult issue. Though the Ford has been delivered, the ship is not scheduled to be declared ready for operations until 2020, with first actual deployment planned for about 2022, according to spokeswoman Kent.


→ Cnn. 2017-06-16. F-35 fighters grounded indefinitely over oxygen issues

Washington (CNN)An F-35 fighter wing will remain grounded as the service works to identify the cause of five incidents where pilots suffered from oxygen deprivation problems, the Air Force said Monday.

The 56th Fighter Wing at Luke Air Force Base in Arizona suspended all F-35A flights last week after the five pilots experienced hypoxia-like symptoms, Air Force spokesman Capt. Mark Graff said in a statement. The pilots all used their backup oxygen to land the planes safely.

The Air Force had expected to lift the grounding measure over the weekend, but said Monday that flight operations will remain on hold until a coordinated analysis of the problem is complete. An updated timetable to resume flights was not provided, with the Air Force saying only “we will take as much time as necessary” to ensure pilot safety.

“The 56th Fighter Wing will continue their pause in local F-35A flying to coordinate analysis and communication between pilots, maintainers, medical professionals and a team of military and industry experts,” said Air Force spokesperson Maj. Rebecca Heyse in a written statement.

“This coordination will include technical analysis of the physiological incidents to date and discussions on possible risk mitigation options to enable a return to flying operations,” she added.

There are 55 F-35As at Luke Air Force Base. Graff said that it’s still not clear what caused the oxygen incidents, but said that the pause was confined to Luke because “no other incidents have been reported” at any other Air Force bases since May 2.

The Luke F-35 grounding is the latest setback for the $400 billion F-35 program, a long delayed and over-budget weapons system that’s become the Pentagon’s most expensive in history. The Air Force grounded 10 of its F-35 fighters last year due to insulation problems, and last month the Air Force announced it had resolved an ejection seat issue that had led to a weight restriction being imposed on pilots.

The Lockheed Martin-made F-35A fighter jets were declared combat ready by the Air Force last year, and F-35s have now deployed to Japan and Europe.

The F-35A is the Air Force variant of the Joint Strike Fighter: The F-35B Marine Corps variant was declared combat-ready in 2015, and the F-35C Nary variant is supposed to be combat operational next year.

President Donald Trump has taken a personal interest in the F-35 program, slamming the costs as “out of control” and then getting involved in the Pentagon’s contract negotiations with Lockheed Martin. He took credit for generating $700 million in savings in the $8.5 billion contract for the latest batch of F-35 fighters.

For military jets, oxygen deprivation has been a nagging problem.

The Navy’s F/A-18 fighter jet pilots experienced a rising rate of “physiological episodes,” Navy officials told Congress in March.

Navy investigators had identified 382 cases, including 130 that involved some form of oxygen contamination, and 114 with a failure of the jet’s system that maintains cabin pressure.

The Air Force’s F-22 fighter pilots also struggled with hypoxia-like symptoms back in 2012, which led to limitations on F-22 flights until the issue was resolved. The Air Force said Friday that the F-35 program office has created a team of “engineers, maintainers and aeromedical specialists to examine the incidents to better understand the issue.”

 

Pubblicato in: Commercio, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Logistica

Amazon, FaceBook e Google potrebbero essere frammentati.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-07-22.

Soffitti__002

Da un punto di vista giuridico resta al momento davvero difficile argomentare di antitrust.

Tutte le ditte di una certa quale dimensione si articolano su numerosi stati differenti, ciascuno dei quali con il proprio corpo giuridico e le proprie regole di mercato. Esistono trattati più o meno vincolanti, ma sono sottoscritti da un numero molto limitato di nazioni e, quasi di norma, sono disattesi.

Sicuramente esiste un pressante problema fiscale. Le multinazionali possono infatti ripartire gli utili tra gli stati a loro più favorevoli, versando nella residenza fiscale ufficiale solo qualche piccolo residuo. Non esiste infatti una legislazione globale in merito e, lo si dica pure apertamente, nessuno la vorrebbe.

Gli stati di origine hanno tutti gli interessi, anche se non esplicitati, a che le loro ditte crescano al massimo possibile, costi quello che costi, mentre gli stati piccoli accordano vantaggiosi regimi fiscale purché si impianti sul loro territorio una qualche attività che generi posti di lavoro.

Il problema diventa ben più acuto, e da solo economico transita apertamente nel politico, quando queste società internazionali acquisiscono una posizione mondiale di monopolio.

E tale sembrerebbe essere l’attuale posizione di Amazon, FaceBook e Google.

Negli Stati Uniti, sede legale di queste società, è in vigore lo Sherman Antitrust Act, approvato nel 1890 e messo in atto per la prima volta nel 1911 nei confronti dell’impero Rockefeller e della Tabacco Company.

«Alphabet Inc.’s Google gets about 77 percent of U.S. search advertising revenue»

*

«Google and Facebook Inc. together control about 56 percent of the mobile ad market»

*

«Amazon takes about 70 percent of all e-book sales and 30 percent of all U.S. e-commerce»

*

«higher returns on capital haven’t resulted in increases in business investment»

*

«Instead of applying conventional antitrust theory, such as the effect of a merger on consumer prices, enforcers may need to consider alternative tools. One is to equate antitrust with privacy, not a traditional concern of the competition police. Germany’s Federal Cartel Office, for example, is examining charges that Facebook bullies users into agreeing to terms and conditions that allow the company to gather data on their web-surfing activities in ways they might not understand»

* * * * * * * *

Non reinvestire gli utili conseguiti è caratteristica tipica delle situazioni di monopolio: non essendovi concorrenza non sembrerebbe essere necessario migliorare il prodotto.

Questo parametro è a nostro parere quello più facilmente verificabile: spesso il meglio è nemico del bene, sempre nei limiti del buon senso.

Di non facile soluzione è anche il quesito di quanta quota di mercato debba avere una società per essere considerata monopolista.

Infine, a nostro modo di vedere, vi sono aspetti politici e militari di non poco peso.

Google e FaceBook governano di fatto il flusso informativo mondiale ed Amazon si sta avviando a gestire gran parte delle vendite al dettaglio, anche se sta iniziando a fornire taluni grossisti.

Dovrebbe essere inutile evidenziare quanto le intelligence siano interessate a questi settori.

Sarà davvero interessante vedere come si risolveranno queste problematiche.


Bloomberg. 2017-07-20. Should America’s Tech Giants Be Broken Up?

Apple, Amazon, Google, and Facebook may be contributing to the U.S. economy’s most persistent ailments.

*

As a former tour manager for Bob Dylan and The Band, Jonathan Taplin isn’t your typical academic. Lately, though, he’s been busy writing somber tomes about market shares, monopolies, and online platforms. His conclusion: Amazon.com, Facebook, and Google have become too big and too powerful and, if not stopped, may need to be broken up.

Crazy? Maybe not. Taplin, 70, author of Move Fast and Break Things: How Facebook, Google, and Amazon Cornered Culture and Undermined Democracy, knows digital media, having run the Annenberg Innovation Lab at the University of Southern California. Ten years before YouTube, he founded one of the first video-on-demand streaming services. He also knows media M&A as a former Merrill Lynch investment banker in the 1980s. He says Google is as close to a monopoly as the Bell telephone system was in 1956.

He has a point, judging by market-research figures. Alphabet Inc.’s Google gets about 77 percent of U.S. search advertising revenue. Google and Facebook Inc. together control about 56 percent of the mobile ad market. Amazon takes about 70 percent of all e-book sales and 30 percent of all U.S. e-commerce. Taplin pegs Facebook’s share of mobile social media traffic, including the company’s WhatsApp, Messenger, and Instagram units, at 75 percent.

Economists have noticed these monopoly-size numbers and drawn even bigger conclusions: They see market concentration as the culprit behind some of the U.S. economy’s most persistent ailments—the decline of workers’ share of national income, the rise of inequality, the decrease in business startups, the dearth of job creation, and the fall in research and development spending.

Can Big Tech really be behind all that? Economists are starting to provide the evidence. David Autor, the MIT economics professor who famously showed the pernicious effects of free-trade deals on Midwestern communities, is one. A recent paper he co-wrote argues that prestigious technology brands, using the internet’s global reach, are able to push out rivals and become winner-take-all “superstar” companies. They’re highly profitable, and their lucky employees generally earn higher salaries to boot.

They don’t engage in the predatory behavior of yore, such as selling goods below the cost of production to steal market share and cripple competitors. After all, the services that Facebook and Google offer are free (if you don’t consider giving up your personal data and privacy rights to be a cost). However, academics have documented how these companies employ far fewer people than the largest companies of decades past while taking a disproportionate share of national profits. As they grow and occupy a bigger part of the economy, median wages stagnate and labor’s share of gross domestic product declines. Labor’s shrinking share of output is widely implicated in the broader economic growth slowdown.

Still others have shown that, as markets become more concentrated and established companies more powerful, the ability of startups to succeed declines. Since half of all new jobs spring from successful startups, this dampens job creation.

It’s no wonder the superstar companies are getting supernormal returns on capital, further adding to income inequality, writes Peter Orszag in Bloomberg View. He and Jason Furman, chairman of President Barack Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, point out that higher returns on capital haven’t resulted in increases in business investment—yet another manifestation of monopoly power.

Some members of the Chicago School, the wellspring of modern antitrust theory, agree. In the 1970s and ’80s, a group of University of Chicago scholars upended antitrust law by arguing that the benefits of economic efficiency created by mergers outweighed any concerns over company size. The test was one of consumer welfare: Does a merger give the combined company the power to raise consumer prices, and are barriers to entry so high that new players can’t easily jump in? U.S. antitrust enforcers were swayed. From 1970 to 1999, the U.S. brought an average of 15.7 monopoly cases a year. That number has since fallen—to fewer than three a year from 2000 to 2014.

Luigi Zingales, director of the university’s Stigler Center, likes to remind people that the reason Google and Facebook were able to succeed is that the U.S. in 1998, under Bill Clinton, sued Microsoft Corp. for tying its web browser to its Windows operating system to undermine rival Netscape. A trial court decision that Microsoft should be broken up was overturned on appeal (though not the court’s finding of monopoly), and ultimately the case was settled by the George W. Bush administration. But it slowed Microsoft’s ability to dominate the internet. Zingales says today’s monopolies are yesterday’s startups, and a healthy system needs to make room for newcomers.

Market concentration has many parents. One of them is surely the so-called network effect, a key antitrust argument in the Microsoft case. That doctrine says the more people use a platform—say, the iPhone or Facebook—the more useful and dominant it becomes. The iPhone, for example, is popular in large part because of the voluminous offerings in Apple Inc.’s App Store, and the app store is popular because developers want to write programs for popular smartphones. Network effects can create what Warren Buffett calls “competitive moats.”

Problem is, the Chicago School’s focus on the impact on consumers—at least as it’s applied in the U.S.—won’t help antitrust enforcers to drain those moats. For example, because what Facebook offers is free, regulators weren’t concerned that its $22 billion acquisition of WhatsApp in 2014 might result in higher consumer prices. In fact, because WhatsApp is in a different industry, it didn’t even increase Facebook’s market share in social media.

The tech superstars insist they compete fiercely with each other and have lowered prices in many cases. They argue that their dominance is transitory because barriers to entry for would-be rivals are low. Google often says competition is “one click away.” And since consumers prefer their platforms over others’, why punish success? But when a cool innovation pops up, the superstars either acquire it or clone it. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft made 436 acquisitions worth $131 billion over the last decade. Antitrust cops made nary a peep.

Snap Inc.’s experience with Facebook is instructive. Since Snap rebuffed Facebook’s $3 billion offer in 2013, Facebook has knocked off one Snapchat innovation after another. That includes Snapchat Stories, which lets users upload images and video for viewing by friends for 24 hours before self-destructing. Facebook added the feature—even calling it Stories—to its Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger services, and most recently to the regular Facebook product. Snap’s shares now trade at around $15, below the $17 initial offering price in March. By offering advertisers the same features but with 100 times the audience, “Facebook basically killed Snapchat,” Taplin says.

Antitrust regulators have taken notice of all this, though much more so in Europe and Asia than in the U.S. The European Union’s $2.7 billion fine in late June against Google for favoring its shopping-comparison service over rivals’ is cheering Taplin and others who monitor the superstars. They ruefully note that the U.S. chose not to bring charges against Google in 2013 for the same conduct punished by the EU.

Instead of applying conventional antitrust theory, such as the effect of a merger on consumer prices, enforcers may need to consider alternative tools. One is to equate antitrust with privacy, not a traditional concern of the competition police. Germany’s Federal Cartel Office, for example, is examining charges that Facebook bullies users into agreeing to terms and conditions that allow the company to gather data on their web-surfing activities in ways they might not understand. Users who don’t agree are locked out of Facebook’s 2 billion-strong social media network.

Another avenue is to examine control over big data. Google collects web-surfing and online-purchasing data from more than a billion people. It uses that to send personalized ads, video recommendations, and search results. The monopoly control of consumer data by Facebook and Google on such a scale has raised antitrust questions in South Korea and Japan.

Taplin suggests that authorities look to 1956, when the U.S. forced Bell Labs to license its patents to all comers. The result was a deluge of innovation (semiconductors, solar cells, lasers, cell phones, computer languages, and satellites) commercialized by new companies (Fairchild Semiconductor International, Motorola, Intel, and Texas Instruments) and the formation of Silicon Valley. Why not require the tech superstars to do the same? Who knows what forces that might unleash.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Sistemi Economici

Cina. I problemi di una economia matura.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-07-21.

2017-07-11__Cina__Pil__

La tabella dovrebbe essere eloquente. (Il dato per il 2016 è provvisorio).

Negli ultimi venti anni il pil cinese è decuplicato, sia se valutato in valore assoluto, sia se valutato come pil pro capite.

Se questo risultato appare semplicemente essere strabiliante, ancor più sbalorditivo è il fatto che il pil pro capite è passato dai 781 Usd del 1997 agli 8,113 Usd del 2016. In parole povere, la Cina è emersa da una condizione di miseria ad una di relativo benessere.

Non solo: queste cifre, già lusinghiere di per sé stesse, lo sarebbero ancora di più se esaminate alla luce del potere di acquisto: il pil pro capite ppa valeva nel 2016 14,107 Usd.

Sicuramente la strada verso un benessere generalizzato è ancora lunga, altrettanto sicuramente il miglioramento potrebbe essere più faticosa rispetto alla prima fase di crescita, ma il lavoro fatto è davvero immenso, senza nessun altro riscontro storico.

*

È del tutto naturale che adesso inizino ad evidenziarsi molti dei problemi con i quali l’Occidente ha dovuto cimentarsi in passato. Sta vivendo una pausa di assestamento, che potrebbe anche essere alquanto dolorosa.

Questo titolo è davvero eloquente.

In China, rural rich get richer and poor get poorer

La Cina è entrata nel periodo economico in cui la ricchezza genera ulteriore ricchezza per chi ne dispone, mentre i meno abbienti sembrerebbero retrocedere, invece di proseguire a crescere, sia pure in ragione modesta.

*

Parlare della Cina si scontra con un problema insormontabile: è un continente di quasi un miliardo e mezzo di persone. È evidente quanto gli indici medi a livello nazionale siano utili per una valutazione globale, ma inidonei a rappresentare simultaneamente tutte le realtà geoeconomiche. In linea generale, mentre le fasce costiere della Cina hanno quasi raggiunto i livelli di vita occidentali, tutte le zone interne a prevalente vocazione agricola sono tuttora sostanzialmente arretrate.

In questa fase però il macrofenomeno di interesse è l’urgente necessità di riequilibrare gli assetti finanziari, specialmente per far fronte alle nuove richieste di investimento. Se in passato erano sufficienti impegni modesti in relazione ad una realtà continentale, al momento gli investimenti devono essere cospicui per diventare poi a loro volta produttivi.

Tradotto in un linguaggio che descriva l’economia familiare, occorre avere pazienza, tanta pazienza. Fenomeni di questo tipo necessitano di tempi lunghi per essere risolti. E richiederebbero soprattutto di saper resistere alla tentazione di redistribuire artificiosamente il reddito.

La povertà non la si cura impoverendo i ricchi: così facendo si ritorna tutti poveri.

Nota. Avere pause di ripensamento non significa per nulla che la situazione si sia deteriorata. Significa solamente un riassestamento degli equilibri.

Cina. Q1 pil +6.9%.

Cina. Pil secondo trimestre +6.9%. Un esempio da seguire.

Germania. Le banche non son quasi più tedesche.

ICB of China è la più grande banca del mondo con attivi per 3.297 mld €.


South China Morning Post. 2017-07-09. As China grows, equal opportunity and social mobility are fast becoming a cruel lie

Joe Zhang considers how his family’s fortunes reflect the changing times in a newly wealthy China. Social mobility, which once enabled the talented and hardworking to make good, is now an unattainable dream for many.

*

Twice a year, I go from Hong Kong to Jingmen (荊門), in central China’s Hubei ( 湖北 ) province, to visit my parents and other relatives. But my trip last week was depressing as I found most of my cousins and their children beating a reluctant retreat back to our village from coastal cities like Shenzhen because of dimming prospects and the soaring costs of living.

On my way to Jingmen, I visited my 55-year-old cousin, Jinghuai, in Yantian port in Shenzhen, where he has been a lorry driver for two decades. Jinghuai counts himself lucky as he bought a small two-bedroom flat six years ago for around 1 million yuan (HK$1.15 million) after pooling his adult children’s savings. When I visited him, eight people from four generations lived in it. But, now, he has to look for a new job; a driver’s life is getting harder with slowing port throughput. His 30-year-old son makes only 3,000 yuan a month as a warehouse guard at the port. Jinghuai’s options are very limited as he and his family cannot afford to relocate to another part of this expensive city.

Jinghuai’s brother, Jinggui, and sister, Jinghua, are in a tougher spot. Jinggui and his son recently lost their jobs as lorry drivers at Mawan, another port in Shenzhen, and are moving back to our village; so are Jinghua and her family. Jinghua had just quit her job in a garment factory and her daughter Juhua quit hers in a diamond shop, for the same reason: their salaries were barely enough to feed themselves.

Juhua, 19, spent two years in a polytechnic learning accounting. But her investment was totally wasted as she could not afford to study further, towards a diploma, and get the necessary accreditations for an accounting job. But even with the accreditations, she would have had trouble finding a job in a fiercely competitive labour market. After all, her blue-collar parents would not be able to give her tips for job interviews or open the right doors.

Back in Jingmen, my brother, Hualiang, and his wife have been out of work for two years, having left a hopeless labour market in Hainan ( 海南 ).

At my parents’ place, I met Jianxin and Fengling, my other cousins. I have not seen them for about 15 years. Both divorced, they have also returned from Taizhou (台州), in coastal Zhejiang ( 浙江 ) province, together with their grown-up children. They operated factory canteens there principally for migrant workers, but it became harder to continue their business due to the dwindling number of migrant workers there.

In 1979, I was extremely lucky to enter university and, four years later, I was offered a graduate position and then an economist job at the central bank in Beijing. In 1989, after barely three years on the job, the central bank sent me to Australia to pursue further studies. In those years, my humble background never affected my progress. In 1985, my sister, Junmei, became a manager at a power plant run by the Huadian Corporation.

Today, the rules of the game seem different. To get a job, who you know is far more important than before. Given the commercialisation of education, housing and everything else, equal opportunity and social mobility have become a cruel lie.

Twenty-three years ago, I came to work in Hong Kong’s investment banking industry. Initially I had many colleagues from working-class and even rural backgrounds. But, over time, more and more new hires come from rich and powerful families. I had become increasingly uncomfortable. As the head of research or of investment banking teams at several investment banks for close to two decades, I always found excuses to wiggle out of campus recruiting trips to the US, Europe and China. I was often sent résumés of privileged candidates, and I could not help but notice the changing socio-economic mix of the candidate pool, which reflected growing inequality and the worsening corruption in China as a whole. Many senior bankers had hired princelings to facilitate their business, a practice that in recent years has attracted the attention of anti-corruption investigators in both the US and Hong Kong.

Back in my village, my brother and cousins face a common challenge: their land has mostly given way to construction sites, and jobs are rare to come by. They have some savings but how long will that last?

Most of my cousins left their farmland about two decades ago for the construction boom in Shenzhen and Zhejiang, and their adult children joined them in recent years. Now their journey back to the village is going to be a painful one.

My cousin Jinghuai is staying put in Shenzhen for now. In 1979, he was almost beaten to death by public security officials for fighting with our village head, and I helped secure his release because I had the unique social status of being the first and only university student from the commune at the time. Jinghuai dreads moving back to the village, but he will have to if he cannot find another job in Shenzhen soon.

Pubblicato in: Criminalità Organizzata, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Unione Europea

Germania. Come assassinare l’industria automobilistica tedesca.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-07-19.

Deserto __001 libia_deserto_2010

Il deserto è morto. È ecologicamente puro.


«More than 600,000 jobs could be at risk in Germany by 2030 from a potential ban on combustion engine cars, the Ifo economic institute said in a study on Tuesday»

*

«A switch to sales of zero-emission cars would threaten 436,000 car manufacturing jobs, with the rest coming from related industries, such as suppliers»

*

«Many German cities, including Munich and Stuttgart, have considered banning some diesel vehicles, blaming emissions for causing increased respiratory disease»

*

«Pollution from diesel engines has become a sensitive subject since VW’s emissions tests cheating scandal broke in September 2015»

*

«It is important that climate policy proceeds in a neutral fashion by setting climate protection goals without prescribing the technologies that have to be used to achieve them»

* * * * * * * *

Diesel vehicles will disappear sooner than expected, says EU industry chief

The death of diesel: has the one-time wonder fuel become the new asbestos?

Urban access Regulation in Europe.

Diesel ban in Germany one step closer after court decision

*

«Il dieselgate fa male alla Germania? Certo, molto male, vista la centralità delle quattro ruote nel sistema industriale tedesco. Ma la ragnatela di subforniture transnazionali e di interscambi commerciali europei conferma che anche il resto del Vecchio continente non ha molto da sorridere.

Qualche numero aiuta a capire meglio. Un’auto al mondo su cinque è tedesca. Una su dieci porta sulla carrozzeria uno dei marchi del gruppo Volkswagen (come Skoda, Seat, Audi, ma anche Lamborghini e Ducati per le moto).

L’automotive è la maggiore industria tedesca, con un fatturato di circa 384 miliardi di euro, pari a un quinto dell’intero manifatturiero nazionale (secondo i dati forniti dalla Vda, l’associazione industriale del settore auto tedesco).

Gli occupati nell’automotive sono 775mila, sparsi in 43 impianti produttivi. Le quattro e due ruote rappresentano il 20% delle esportazioni mondiali tedesche. Ma la Germania è anche il maggior produttore e utilizzatore europeo di auto: secondo i dati Acea, il 30% delle auto costruite nel Vecchio Continente è made in Germany (5,6 milioni di vetture), così come quasi il 20% delle immatricolazioni (3,04 milioni). Il 77% delle vetture costruite in Germania è destinato ai mercati esteri.

In Germania la spesa in Ricerca & Sviluppo del settore (17,6 miliardi di euro) è pari a un terzo del totale, e solo nel R&S auto lavorano qualcosa come 93mila addetti.» [Sole 24 Ore]

*

Si dovrebbe considerare a fondo la seguente frase:

«Gli occupati nell’automotive sono 775mila, sparsi in 43 impianti produttivi. Le quattro e due ruote rappresentano il 20% delle esportazioni mondiali tedesche»

Imporre restrizioni politiche alla produzione automobilistica, oltre quelle già adesso in vigore, potrebbe concorrere a togliere dal mercato l’automotive prodotto in Germania.

Se è vero che il 77% delle autovetture costruite in Germania è destinato all’esportazione, è altrettanto vero che esse rendono il 20% delle esportazioni totali: questo è un risultato tecnologico ottenuto in oltre un secolo di lavoro. Prima di disperderlo sarebbe a parere di molti proficuo meditarci sopra.

Sicuramente parte della produzione potrebbe essere portata all’estero, cosa che per esempio VW sta perseguendo da tempo.

Germania, Russia e sanzioni. VW amplierà il mega impianto a Mosca.

Ma è anche vero che gli impianti locati all’estero sono politicamente vulnerabili: nessuno potrebbe dare garanzie assolute che in un domani nonpossano essere nazionalizzati.

In conclusione, quando l’ideologia offusca la mente fino ad erodere il comune buon senso non si preannunciano tempi facili.

Senza poi tener conto che in Germania già adesso la crisi demografica inizia a mordere, e ferocemente.

Germania. Sassonia. La realtà travolge i tedeschi. Ed è solo l’inizio.

Il Ministro delle Finanze Sassoni ha fatto presente che a fronte di 60,000 pensionamenti la Sassonia dispone di solo 30,000 rimpiazzi, e di questi non tutti hanno le competenze necessarie per subentrare dei posti lasciati liberi.

Resta davvero difficile cercare di comprendere dove voglia andare la Germania.

*

Lungi da noi l’idea di fare fantapolitica. Ci sono troppi fatti storici per fantasticare.

Ma nella storia ci sono davvero molti precedenti. Il Doge Marino Falier ne potrebbe essere un esempio, ma anche Benedict Arnold e Vidkun Quisling non scherzarono affatto.

«Kim Phily, da sempre comunista, fu al servizio dell’NKVD e del KGB dall’interno del Military Intelligence e del corpo diplomatico del Regno Unito. Nel secondo dopoguerra fu, per due anni, a capo della sezione controspionaggio R5 del Secret Intelligence Service (SIS).  Fu poi trasferito come capo della stazione MI6 in Turchia e, in seguito, fu ufficiale di collegamento per l’intelligence SIS presso l’Ambasciata britannica a Washington. Si noti che era un integralista islamico.»

I traditori esistono: sono una triste realtà. Philby tradiva la sua Patria perché era convinto che la sua vera Heimat fosse il comunismo. Gli ideologi considerano Patria la propria ideologia, non la terra dove sono nati.


Reuters. 2017-07-17. Car engine bans in Germany would put 600,000 jobs at risk: Ifo

BERLIN (Reuters) – More than 600,000 jobs could be at risk in Germany by 2030 from a potential ban on combustion engine cars, the Ifo economic institute said in a study on Tuesday.

A switch to sales of zero-emission cars would threaten 436,000 car manufacturing jobs, with the rest coming from related industries, such as suppliers, Ifo said in the study commissioned by the VDA auto industry association.

The VDA, representing carmakers such as Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE), Daimler (DAIGn.DE) and BMW (BMWG.DE), is in discussions with the government on a plan to reduce pollution from older diesel cars that the industry hopes will avert complete bans on diesel engines in certain German cities.

Many German cities, including Munich and Stuttgart, have considered banning some diesel vehicles, blaming emissions for causing increased respiratory disease.

Pollution from diesel engines has become a sensitive subject since VW’s emissions tests cheating scandal broke in September 2015.

“It is important that climate policy proceeds in a neutral fashion by setting climate protection goals without prescribing the technologies that have to be used to achieve them,” Ifo president Clemens Fuest said at a news conference.

Representatives from Germany’s federal government, states where carmakers are headquartered and automakers will meet on Aug. 2 to find ways to curb pollution from diesels.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Cina. Pil secondo trimestre +6.9%. Un esempio da seguire.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-07-17.

Pechino-Cina

«Il Pil della Cina sale nel secondo trimestre 2017 al passo annuo del 6,9%»

*

«Il governo ha fissato a inizio anno un obiettivo di crescita intorno al 6,5%»

*

«il 6,7% del 2016 che è stato il ritmo più lento di oltre 25 anni»

*

«+11% vendite dettaglio giugno, massimi da dicembre 2015»

*

«+7,6% produzione industriale giugno, +6,9% in semestre»

* * * * * * *

La Cina è la dimostrazione vivente di come uno stato possa far crescere a ritmo sostenuto il proprio sistema economico.

Gli economisti classici, quelli che al momento non si studiano più in Occidente, sostenevano che esempi del genere avrebbero dovuto essere studiati ed imitati.

Sarebbero molti i punti da prendere in considerazione: ne citeremo solo alcuni.

«Il governo cinese ha ridotto la pressione fiscale alle piccole imprese, nell’ambito di un pacchetto di misure che punta ad aiutare l’economia. …. Si tratta di circa sei milioni di aziende. La misura fa parte di un pacchetto piu’ complessivo di stimoli all’economia approvato ieri dal governo su proposta del premier, Li Keqiang. Tra gli altri provvedimenti varati dall’esecutivo e’ previsto un fondo per lo sviluppo delle ferrovie, l’offerta di rimborsi fiscali e l’impegno a mantenere lo yuan a un livello “ragionevole” Per spingere il commercio con l’estero.» [Fonte]

*

«Il 19 aprile, il premier cinese Li Keqiang ha tenuto una riunione esecutiva del Consiglio di Stato durante la quale sono state decise ulteriori misure per ridurre la pressione fiscale e rilanciare l’economia reale attraverso la riduzione dei costi e l’aumento della sua forza trainante. La riunione ha deciso che attraverso il miglioramento dell’ambiente commerciale sarà possibile impegnarsi di più per aumentare la vitalità e l’innovazione delle imprese e consolidare la buona tendenza dell’economia attraverso una riqualificazione strutturale.» [Fonte]

* * *

In parole poverissime, lo stato deve mantenere un basso regime di pressione fiscale su imprese e cittadini contribuenti, in modo da lasciare loro le disponibilità effettive per poter compiere investimenti le imprese ed incrementare i consumi interni i Contribuenti. Meno stato e più privato.

Quando la tassazione sale oltre un certo limite, il sistema economico si blocca e si avvia alla stagnazione.

Di conserva, è necessario che lo stato si attivi a vivacizzare la produzione industriale: una nazione prospera se produce, non se consuma.

*

La Cina sta facendo esattamente l’opposto di quanto sta facendo l’Unione Europea.

Un particolare.

L’Unione Europea lancia altissimi lai:

«Un nuovo rapporto sostiene che il principale emettitore mondiale di CO2, la Cina, potrebbe raddoppiare le sue emissioni entro il 2030. Il paese asiatico afferma che l’aumento sarebbe dovuto alle attività produttive per conto dei mercati occidentali.»


Ansa. 2017-07-17. Cina, +6,9% Pil in secondo trimestre

 Il Pil della Cina sale nel secondo trimestre 2017 al passo annuo del 6,9%, meglio delle stime degli analisti (6,8%) e confermando il dato del primo trimestre, mentre su base congiunturale il rialzo è dell’1,7%, confermando le previsioni della vigilia e facendo meglio dell’1,3% dei primi tre mesi: i dati, diffusi dall’Ufficio nazionale di statistica, scontano alcune incertezze come quelle legate alla stretta sulle transazioni immobiliari e sui prestiti bancari. Il governo ha fissato a inizio anno un obiettivo di crescita intorno al 6,5%, dopo il 6,7% del 2016 che è stato il ritmo più lento di oltre 25 anni. Pur tra i rischi finanziari, rimarcati da ultimo la scorsa settimana da Fitch, il premier Li Keqiang ha detto a maggio di ritenere che il Paese possa centrare i target di crescita.

+11% vendite dettaglio giugno, massimi da dicembre 2015 – Le vendite al dettaglio sono salite in Cina a giugno dell’11% su base annua, in rialzo rispetto al 10,7% del mese precedente e del 10,6% stimato dagli analisti. Si tratta, secondo l’Ufficio nazionale di statistica, del ritmo più veloce da dicembre 2015, in scia alle spese per tlc (+18,5%), auto (+9,8%) e materiali per l’edilizia (+15,2%).

+7,6% produzione industriale giugno, +6,9% in semestre  – La produzione industriale in Cina accelera a giugno con un rialzo annuo del 7,6%, oltre il 6,5% relativo ai due mesi precedenti e alle stime degli analisti. Il dato nel primo semestre, secondo l’Ufficio nazionale di statistica, è del 6,9%, a fronte del 6,8% del primo trimestre. Il ritmo di giugno è il più sostenuto da marzo, spinto dal comparto manifatturiero (+8%) e dalla produzione di elettricità, gas e acqua (+7,3%).


Reuters. 2017-07-17. China second quarter GDP growth tops forecasts on strong investment, consumption

BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter as industrial output and consumption picked up and investment remained strong, though analysts expect slower growth over the rest of the year as policymakers seek to reduce financial risk.

The economy grew 6.9 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, the same rate as the first quarter, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected the economy to expand 6.8 percent in the April-June quarter.

On a quarterly basis, growth picked up to 1.7 percent from 1.3 percent in the first quarter, in line with expectations.

Strength in retail sale and industrial output data helped offset a weak start for China stocks, which may have been linked to talk of tighter financial regulations.

Growth in China’s economy this year has beaten expectations as exports recover and property construction remains strong, though many analysts expect the world’s second-largest economy to lose steam later in the year as policy measures to rein in red-hot housing prices and a rapid build-up in debt take a greater toll on growth.

“Overall, the economy continued to show steady progress in the first half…but international instability and uncertainties are still relatively large, and the domestic long-term buildup of structural imbalances remains,” the statistics bureau said in a statement with the data.

Pubblicato in: Criminalità Organizzata, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Germania. Anche Daimler, Mercedes, presa con la mani nel sacco. Inquina!

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-07-13.

2017-07-07__Hamburg__001 trumps_climate_war_74848_c0-250-4832-3067_s885x516

Frau Merkel ed i tedeschi sono tutti assidui fedeli al credo del ‘clima’, della società multietnica e multirazziale, omofili per vocazione, devoti delle energie alternative, e proni adoratori di mammona, il demone del denaro.

Ciò che loro fanno è sacrale, ciò che fanno gli altri infaustamente maledetto, mai sufficientemente esecrato.

Loro si ritengono infatti i depositari di quanto sia eticamente corretto e ritengono essere loro dovere imporlo la mondo.

In barba alle sanzioni si stanno costruendo il Nord Stram 2, e sempre alla faccia dei gonzi la loro Siemens sta fornendo alla Russia sotto sanzioni ben quattro turbine termoelettriche, solo per parlare di quanto più recente.

*

La saga del Dieselgate prosegue a pieno ritmo. Inquinano più le automobili tedesche che le centrali termoelettriche. Adesso la simpatica notizia che la Daimler, Mercedes – Benz, da dieci anni aggira i test sulle emissioni:

«La Procura di Stoccarda non aveva scomodato per niente 230 agenti e 23 magistrati lo scorso 23 maggio. Secondo le rivelazioni della Süddeutsche Zeitung e dei canali WDR e NDR che hanno riferito di aver visionato gli atti, gli inquirenti sospettano che Daimler abbia impiegato un sistema di abbattimento dei gas di scarico che funzionava sui rulli, ma non in strada. In Germania sembra così aprirsi un secondo dieselgate, anche perché tra auto e veicoli commerciali leggeri, sarebbero stati commercializzati oltre un milione di mezzi tra il 2008 ed il 2016 sia in Europa sia negli Stati Uniti. Stando al mandato di perquisizione, i motori “sospettati” sarebbero due: l’OM 642 e l’OM 651.» [Fonte]

*

«Daimler’s OM 642 and OM 651 engines used an illegal defeat device to power down the engine during emissions tests»

*

«Daimler is alleged to have sold over a million cars in Europe and the US containing engines rigged to cheat emissions tests»

*

«German authorities raided several locations associated with the automaker back in May»

*

«A German media research consortium reported Wednesday that German automaker Daimler, the maker of Mercedes-Benz cars, had for almost 10 years cheated emissions tests on two of its lines of engines»

* * * * * * *

Predicavano bene e razzolavano male.

Da dieci anni la Daimler frodava in largo ed in lungo e nessuno le diceva mai nulla.

Già: dirigenza socialista, omertà assicurata.

Ma il venticello mondiale sta cambiando, checché se ne dica.

«Rival carmaker Volkswagen used a similar device to cheat emissions tests, which ultimately led to the so-called Dieselgate scandal and the company having to pay out some 22.6 billion euro ($25.8 billion) in fines and compensation»

Non ci si stupisca più di tento se al mondo sono in molti a gongolare che i tedeschi autoctoni stiano estinguendosi: è razza intrinsecamente perversa.


Deutsche Welle. 2017-07-13. German carmaker Daimler facing its own ‘Dieselgate’ emissions scandal

Daimler is alleged to have sold over a million cars in Europe and the US containing engines rigged to cheat emissions tests. German authorities raided several locations associated with the automaker back in May.

*

A German media research consortium reported Wednesday that German automaker Daimler, the maker of Mercedes-Benz cars, had for almost 10 years cheated emissions tests on two of its lines of engines.

The allegations prompted a series of raids carried by German authorities on a number of Daimler locations back in May.

According to a joint investigation by Germany’s WDR and NDR broadcasters, and the “Süddeutsche” newspaper, Daimler’s OM 642 and OM 651 engines used an illegal defeat device to power down the engine during emissions tests. Those two engines are thought to be in one million vehicles sold across Europe and the US.

Reports suggest that it could also lead to Germany’s Federal Motor Transport Authority (KBA) forcing the Stuttgart-based carmaker to recall the tens of thousands of affected cars, at least in Europe. US regulators and prosecutors would likely pursue their own legal charges. 

Rival carmaker Volkswagen used a similar device to cheat emissions tests, which ultimately led to the so-called Dieselgate scandal and the company having to pay out some 22.6 billion euro ($25.8 billion) in fines and compensation. 

German prosecutors are also reportedly looking to charge two specific Daimler employees for allegedly misleading customers into buying the cars through false advertising. Further employees may also face similar charges.

A Daimler spokesperson told German media that it does not comment on ongoing investigations but insisted that the automaker was complying with the authorities.

Stuttgart prosecutors have been investigating Daimler over alleged emissions cheating and misleading advertising since March.

More trouble ahead?

US prosecutors also reportedly have their sights set on the German carmaker, where it faces a number of class action law suits by car owners, who claim Daimler understated the emissions levels for a number of diesel-powered models.

The automaker had agreed last year with the KBA to “voluntarily” recall 247,000 vehicles to update “potentially problematic technology,” allegedly installed to prevent engines from being damaged.

However, as recently as March, Daimler’s head, Dieter Zetsche, dismissed allegations that the carmaker was guilty of breaching emissions laws.

Pubblicato in: Criminalità Organizzata, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Tesla. Vendite -24%, ma tanto lo stato ripiana….

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-07-09.

Fallimento chiuso-per-fallimento

«Registrations of Tesla Inc vehicles in California, by far the largest market of the luxury electric car maker, fell 24 percent in April from a year ago, according to data from IHS Markit»

*

«Since June 23, however, Tesla shares have fallen by nearly 20 percent amid concerns that demand for the company’s existing models is weakening.»

*

«Overall sales of electric vehicles in the United States remain stuck at less than 1 percent of total vehicle sales»

*

Tesla è il classico esempio di ditta liberal democratica.

La retorica della propaganda liberal è sempre la stessa, in fondo è il concetto del “sol dell’avvenire“:

“è vero che oggi si perde come colabrodi, ma i guadagni futuri ricompenseranno ad usura.”

*

“tanto poi intervengono i sussidi statali”.

*

Tesla ha perso il 24% del mercato?

Nessuna paura: calma. Lo Stato della Californi raddoppierà i contributi pubblici.


Reuters. 2017-07-07. Tesla April registrations drop in key California market

Registrations of Tesla Inc vehicles in California, by far the largest market of the luxury electric car maker, fell 24 percent in April from a year ago, according to data from IHS Markit.

The findings come as investors worry that demand for Tesla’s luxury Model S sedan is waning ahead of the mass market Model 3 launch.

Tesla earlier this week reported first-half global deliveries of its Model S and its Model X SUV at the low end of its own forecast, driving down the stock and raising questions about demand for the older models.

Tesla’s share price more than doubled between early December and late June as investors bet on Chief Executive Elon Musk’s strategy to transform the low-volume luxury electric car maker into a diversified producer of mass market vehicles, storage batteries, electric commercial trucks and rooftop solar panels. The company’s market value rose past larger rivals General Motors Co and Ford Motor Co.

Since June 23, however, Tesla shares have fallen by nearly 20 percent amid concerns that demand for the company’s existing models is weakening.

Overall sales of electric vehicles in the United States remain stuck at less than 1 percent of total vehicle sales, despite a growing number of models fielded by Tesla and other car makers.

Tesla declined to comment on California registration figures and noted that second-quarter global deliveries rose 53 percent from a year earlier, to just over 12,000 Model S and just over 10,000 Model X. It said earlier this week that battery pack production problems held back vehicle output in the second quarter until early June.

California, a haven for environmentalists and techies, is one of the company’s leading markets. The company does not break out results by geographic area.

IHS analyst Stephanie Brinley cautioned that a single month of data could not fully explain Tesla demand.

“If Tesla had an issue with its production for the month, that could explain” the drop in registrations, she said, noting in particular the problems with battery pack output. Still, she said, Tesla’s Model S, launched in 2012, could be in need of a refresh.

“They haven’t changed much on the exterior or much on the package,” and it is a high-fashion car, she said. “I can certainly understand where Model S sales may be softening a little bit because it’s an older product. That could be contributing to the issue.”

Industry data reviewed separately by Reuters showed that the Model S registrations in California were uneven over the first four months of 2017, varying by more than 1,000 units month-to-month. In percentage terms Model S growth peaked in February, decelerated in March and turned negative in April in California.

Brinley said it was difficult to assess whether that reflected demand or availability.

IHS measures vehicle registration, which comes after a sale. Registration in California and overall in the United States rose sharply for the combined first four months of the year, but April showed steep declines. IHS has not released data for May or June.

Chief Executive Musk in May stoked concerns that the Model 3 would cannibalize demand for the Model S when he told investors that some “confused” Tesla buyers regarded the new Model 3 as an upgrade to the Model S, affecting Model S orders. The new car is a $35,000 mass market vehicle, which costs about half the price of the Model S.

Tesla reported first-half 2017 global deliveries rose to 47,100 in 2017. Tesla had predicted 47,000 to 50,000. Musk in May said there would be demand for 100,000 luxury Teslas.

IHS reported April Tesla registrations fell to 2,177 from 2,867 in California. Nationally they dropped nearly 10 percent to 3,911 from 4,334. For the first four months, California registrations rose to 6,926 from 5,804 and U.S. registrations rose to 15,288 from 10,937.

Tesla shares fell 5.6 percent to close at $308.83 on Thursday, although the stock is up about 45 percent for the year to date.