Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Unione Europea

Unione Europea contraria all’export tedesco dei diesel usati.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-10-12.

Unione Europea 010 Bicchieri

Attenzione! Quanto segue non è una barzelletta, ma una realtà di cui prendere atto.

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«Last year, Bulgaria imported more than 100,000 second hand cars from EU countries, more than a third of which were grossly polluting diesels, according to clean mobility group Transport and Environment»

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«The European Commission fears that carmakers in Germany would seek to export old diesel cars removed from German streets under planned trade-off incentives to eastern European countries, Industry Commissioner Elzbieta Bienkowska said on Sunday»

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«Exports would mean pushing the air quality problem from the west to the east»

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Germania. Frau Merkel ha scoperto che i possessori di auto diesel votano.

In breve.

I 15 milioni di tedeschi che hanno un automobile diesel dovrebbero rottamarli e comprarsi un’automobile nuova, oppure andare a piedi.

Ottima idea quella dell’Unione Europea. Specie poi sotto elezioni.


Reuters. 2018-10-07. Don’t export old diesels to eastern Europe, EU warns German carmakers

The European Commission fears that carmakers in Germany would seek to export old diesel cars removed from German streets under planned trade-off incentives to eastern European countries, Industry Commissioner Elzbieta Bienkowska said on Sunday.

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German carmakers and the government hashed out a compromise deal to cut pollution from diesel vehicles last week after environmental groups won a victory in February which allowed cities to ban older diesel cars.

The government has asked carmakers to offer owners trade-in incentives and hardware fixes. Not all carmakers committed to the retrofits, as the hardware fixes are known, which would cost billions of euros.

Most said the solution should be to encourage car owners to trade in their older diesel models for cleaner vehicles – which would bring a boost in sales, albeit at discounted prices.

“Exports would mean pushing the air quality problem from the west to the east,” Bienkowska told the Tagesspiegel newspaper in remarks to be published on Monday. “The German government’s plan to avoid driving bans could intensify the problem.”

Germany’s environment ministry has said it would try to overcome resistance from car makers to the expensive new exhaust filtering systems.

Last year, Bulgaria imported more than 100,000 second hand cars from EU countries, more than a third of which were grossly polluting diesels, according to clean mobility group Transport and Environment.

“It should be clearly determined what happens to the worn-out and poorly adjusted vehicles,” said Bienkowska, adding that the issue was a European problem not a national one.

Chancellor Angela Merkel on Saturday defended the compromise, saying it was essential to prevent driving bans in German cities, which would affect hundreds of thousands of diesel car owners who commute to work from the countryside to urban centers.

But speaking at an event of the youth wing of her conservatives, Merkel also said car makers had “lied and cheated” by selling diesel cars that pollute more than the industry had said they would.

Diesel cars have come under intense scrutiny after Volkswagen in 2015 admitted to using illegal software to cheat emissions tests, sparking a scandal that has cost it more than $27 billion in penalties and fines.

“That people are becoming suspicious is the fault of the car industry not politicians,” Merkel said in the northern city of Kiel.

EU environment ministers will discuss more ambitious car emission reduction targets when they meet in Luxembourg on Oct. 9.

EU lawmakers last month backed carbon dioxide reduction goals for fleets of cars and vans of 45 percent by 2030, ambitious targets that are unpopular with national governments.

Annunci
Pubblicato in: Commercio, Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Giustizia, Unione Europea

VW. Iniziato il processo. Chiesti 9 miliardi di danni.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-09-22.

Musterverfahren gegen Volkswagen AG

«A crucial Dieselgate lawsuit against Volkswagen started on Monday morning in Braunschweig, a short drive from the carmaker’s headquarters in Wolfsburg.»

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«In the vital test case, more than 2,000 shareholders – many of them powerful investment funds – claim that VW concealed risks associated with falsified emissions data, causing them to lose €9 billion ($10.4 billion) when the company’s stock price tanked»

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«The main plaintiff is Deka Investment, the asset management fund of Germany’s Sparkasse network of savings banks, with other shareholders co-suing as part of the same suit. Deka’s legal team is led by Andreas Tilp, who in the past has taken similar cases against Deutsche Telekom and the property bank Hypo Real Estate. He argues that the rot dates back to 2008, when VW discovered its diesel engines would not pass US environmental regulations, but chose to conceal this fact»

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«According to Mr. Tilp, that led VW down the path of falsification, namely building illegal “defeat device” software designed to convince testers that emissions were far lower than they really were»

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«VW says its management team did everything it could to correctly inform stockholders, given its knowledge at the time.»

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«VW points out that when the Dieselgate scandal broke, US environmental authorities had never fined any company more than $100 million, a relatively insignificant sum for a company with annual revenues of over €200 billion, and an amount considered too small to impact the share price.»

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«Once the extent of VW’s actions became clear, the US authorities radically changed the scale of their penalties, with the Environmental Protection Agency imposing a fine of $4.3 billion on the German company»

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Il processo è in corso e la sentenza dovrebbe poter arrivare per fine dell’anno prossimo venturo. I ricorsi sembrerebbero essere inevitabili.

A nostro sommesso parere, la difesa di VW è scarsamente attendibile.

Una cosa è avvisare gli azionisti dopo che sia scoppiato lo scandalo, quando i titoli erano già crollati, ed una totalmente diversa sarebbe stata l’averli avvisati prima che scoppiasse lo scandalo, prima che comprassero i pacchetti azionari.

Siamo molto interessati a vedere come disporranno i giudici.


Handelsblatt. 2018-09-10. Volkswagen shareholders get their day in court

A key lawsuit begins today as investors claim they were deceived over Dieselgate, giving rise to losses of €9 billion.

The carmaker insists they were fairly informed.

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A crucial Dieselgate lawsuit against Volkswagen started on Monday morning in Braunschweig, a short drive from the carmaker’s headquarters in Wolfsburg. In the vital test case, more than 2,000 shareholders – many of them powerful investment funds – claim that VW concealed risks associated with falsified emissions data, causing them to lose €9 billion ($10.4 billion) when the company’s stock price tanked.

In 2015, VW’s elaborate cheating on emissions tests for diesels unraveled in the United States. The shareholders argue they bought shares earlier at what amounted to inflated prices, since the company knew about the falsification and the associated risks, but deliberately concealed them. The judgment of the court is binding on all litigants, but will not apply to other Dieselgate victims.

The main plaintiff is Deka Investment, the asset management fund of Germany’s Sparkasse network of savings banks, with other shareholders co-suing as part of the same suit. Deka’s legal team is led by Andreas Tilp, who in the past has taken similar cases against Deutsche Telekom and the property bank Hypo Real Estate. He argues that the rot dates back to 2008, when VW discovered its diesel engines would not pass US environmental regulations, but chose to conceal this fact.

The fatal decision

According to Mr. Tilp, that led VW down the path of falsification, namely building illegal “defeat device” software designed to convince testers that emissions were far lower than they really were. That facade began to crumble in 2014, when the International Council on Clean Transportation, an environmental nonprofit, reported that VW emissions were far higher than the company admitted.

Volkswagen frames the case differently. Its legal team wants to avoid the trial turning into a tribunal on the entire scandal and argues the suit addresses a single issue: whether the automotive giant abided by laws to report all relevant information to shareholders and the capital markets. VW says its management team did everything it could to correctly inform stockholders, given its knowledge at the time.

VW points out that when the Dieselgate scandal broke, US environmental authorities had never fined any company more than $100 million, a relatively insignificant sum for a company with annual revenues of over €200 billion, and an amount considered too small to impact the share price.

Punishments radically increased

Once the extent of VW’s actions became clear, the US authorities radically changed the scale of their penalties, with the Environmental Protection Agency imposing a fine of $4.3 billion on the German company. The company claims that when the new risk became clear, in September 2015, it communicated this appropriately to shareholders.

Even if the plaintiffs manage to show that VW informed shareholders inadequately or too late, they must also clear another hurdle – showing that senior management acted deliberately to conceal relevant information. This will raise the question of who knew what about the emission manipulation scandal, and when. However, it is not expected that senior VW figures will appear at the trial: Most would, in any case, invoke their right to refuse to testify.

It falls to Braunschweig’s Higher Regional Court to make sense of the competing claims. One thing all agree on is that a decision will not be quick, with judgment not expected to be handed down until next year.

Pubblicato in: Commercio, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Logistica

Germania. Nuove tecnologie? Non contiamoci fregnacce. – Handelsblatt.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-09-07.

Tragbares Telefax-Gerät auf der CeBIT vorgestellt

Non contiamo più fregnacce.

I media liberal si acquetino e tacciano. Si prendano del bromuro invece che eroina e cocaina.

Sono decenni che codesta genia ci riempie la testa di promesse mirabolanti di un futuro da fantascienza, usando un solito stantio ritornello: dateci tanti, ma tanti, ma tantissimi soldi pubblici e noi progetteremo e costruiremo oggetti mirabolanti di ogni genere e tipo. Tutti ovviamente, muniti di intelligenza artificiale che rimpiazzerà quel miserabile essere inquinante che è l’essere umano.

Nella sola Germania trecento miliardi ogni anno finiscono nel calderone.

Chi osasse lamentarsi riceverebbe l’invariabile risposta: sei un codino retrogrado della destra fascista e reazionaria che si oppone al progresso scientifico ed al sorgere del nuovo sole dell’avvenire. Un asociale, Peggio, un omofobo, razzista e xenofobo.

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Poi quando si guardano i numeri si resta basiti. Brasati sui libri contabili.

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«Forget artificial intelligence and big data: In Germany, business is still done by fax»

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«For most companies the fax is still indispensable»

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«Up to 9,000 faxes a minute pass through Retarus’s center. And the number of faxes sent in Germany is growing, by about 10 percent per year »

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«Germany’s companies, large and small, rely on facsimiles to a degree unthinkable elsewhere»

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«Two-thirds of German companies regularly use faxes, whereas only half of them use video conferencing technologies, and just one-third use messaging services or online collaboration tools»

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«Lieferheld, a booming food delivery startup, sends a quarter-million faxes every day to quickly give restaurants their customers’ orders »

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«Agro-pharmaceutical giant Bayer sends a localized weather fax to 30,000 farmers every day»

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«Some law enforcement agencies only accept tip-offs via fax, and medical institutions will only send some data by fax to protect patient information»

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«Supermarkets, hotel chains, automotive manufacturers and holiday companies all send confirmations by fax»

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«About 37,000 new fax machines were sold in Germany last year»

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È un brutto sintomo psichiatrico quando si inizia a crede acriticamente ai propri desideri.  Le illusioni sono illusioni, e le allucinazioni sono fatto patologico.

Prima di smantellare una linea gli investitori esigono avere tecnologie realmente funzionanti.

Sia estremamente chiaro.

Qui nessuno nega il valore di lungo termine degli investimenti e della ricerca: proprio nessuno.

Si reclama invece un maggior discernimento nell’indirizzare cospicui investimenti pubblici, ossia denaro dei contribuenti.

Se si prende atto che buona parte delle ricerche innovative finanziate non avrà esito produttivo, si constata peraltro che investire in progetti scriteriati servirà sicuramente a mantenere in vita, e bene, centri di ricerca e personale politicamente amico, ma saranno denari cacciati al vento, senza ritorni.


Handelsblatt. 2018-08-24. The fax is dead, long live the fax

Forget artificial intelligence and big data: In Germany, business is still done by fax. Is it safety or a sign of the country’s digital backwardness?

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On the outskirts of Munich, a room full of computers supports one of Germany’s most important business technologies. Hundreds of network cables connect massive servers, and elaborate cooling systems hum in every corner.

“For most companies the fax is still indispensable,” says Martin Hager, CEO of Retarus, a cloud fax provider. That’s right — the fax. Up to 9,000 faxes a minute pass through Retarus’s center. And the number of faxes sent in Germany is growing, by about 10 percent per year.

Germany’s companies, large and small, rely on facsimiles to a degree unthinkable elsewhere. Some say faxing’s bizarre afterlife is yet another symbol of Germany’s digital backwardness, its mistrust of innovation, its unadventurous, safety-first mentality. Two-thirds of German companies regularly use faxes, whereas only half of them use video conferencing technologies, and just one-third use messaging services or online collaboration tools.

Fax services arrived in Germany in 1979, courtesy of the postal service. At a time when hand-delivered letters still dominated corporate communications, this was a real step forward: You could transmit a document in moments anywhere in the world and have it automatically printed on receipt. These days, some faxing happens via cloud servers rather than landlines, but the principle remains the same.

The technology is ubiquitous across Germany. Lieferheld, a booming food delivery startup, sends a quarter-million faxes every day to quickly give restaurants their customers’ orders. Agro-pharmaceutical giant Bayer sends a localized weather fax to 30,000 farmers every day. Supermarkets, hotel chains, automotive manufacturers and holiday companies all send confirmations by fax. Some law enforcement agencies only accept tip-offs via fax, and medical institutions will only send some data by fax to protect patient information.

Fax speak for themselves

The medium’s champions say it is robust and secure. Users are fond of the receipt confirmation, and spam is rarely a problem. Hackers can make little headway with faxes. But in the German context, the fax’s greatest advantage is a legal one. For banks and insurance companies, faxed documents carry legal weight, but online ones still do not. This is exactly the problem, say critics of the country’s technological timidity.

About 37,000 new fax machines were sold in Germany last year, one-tenth of sales a decade ago. But these days most faxing is done on multifunction devices that are also capable of scanning and printing. Ironically, researchers have been able to penetrate entire networks by sending a malicious fax to an all-in-one printer.

It’s unlikely the transmissions will end any time soon. “It’s a German thing,” said a spokesperson for manufacturer Brother. “They like the security of the fax option.” They have no plans to discontinue the function for the German market.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Unione Europea

Germania. Nuova legge sulle emissioni e metà delle VW non vi rientrano.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-09-05.

2018-09-01__Raffaele Frigerio. Scugnizzo.

Raffaele Frigerio. Scugnizzo.


«Cars in the European Union must comply with the new Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP) from September»

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«but Volkswagen has only gained regulatory clearance for seven of its 14 main model lines»

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«Volkswagen’s top-selling Golf model is among the vehicles still waiting to be cleared by authorities»

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«The new tests are more cumbersome and take two to three times longer than in the past, even limited edition models need to be tested separately»

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I tedeschi sono davvero gente difficile da capirsi. Stanno morendo sotto il peso delle regole che si sono imposte.

Prima fanno ferro e fuoco per far passare una direttiva oltremodo severa sulle emissioni delle autovetture.

Poi si rendono conto che metà del loro parco auto si trova nei triboli.

Avrebbero un disperato bisogno di ospitare un paio di scugnizzi napoletani, da trattarsi in pompa magna, ai quali chiedere una o due volta all’anno un parere, e quindi seguirlo.


Reuters. 2018-09-01. Half of VW models in Germany not compliant with new pollution standard

German carmaker Volkswagen said only half of its VW branded passenger car models in Germany are compliant with a new pollution standard, thanks to a much tougher emissions testing regime.

Cars in the European Union must comply with the new Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP) from September, but Volkswagen has only gained regulatory clearance for seven of its 14 main model lines.

“The new tests are more cumbersome and take two to three times longer than in the past, even limited edition models need to be tested separately,” Volkswagen’s Thomas Zahn said in a call with journalists on Thursday.

“The coming months will be challenging for us,” said Zahn, head of sales and marketing for Volkswagen passenger cars.

Volkswagen’s top-selling Golf model is among the vehicles still waiting to be cleared by authorities, Zahn said.

He said he expected the Golf to pass the WLTP standards by the end of September.

Shipments of cars are expected to slow down in September and October, but pick up again in the final two months of the year.

“We expect very strong deliveries in December,” Zahn said.

Carmakers including Daimler, Volkswagen and supplier Valeo have cut profit expectations, blaming a slowdown in global sales triggered in part by delays getting vehicles certified to the new standard.

Analysts at Evercore ISI said the WLTP delays at the VW brand appear to be under control since the carmaker has not resorted to heavy discounting to keep sales flowing.

Nonetheless delays will cause profitability of the brand to drop to around 2 percent in the third quarter, from 5.5 percent in the second quarter, Evercore said in a note on Thursday.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Unione Europea

La Germania svenduta. Après moi le déluge!- Bloomberg

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-08-23.

Berlino Porta Brandemburgo

Un classico errore dei governanti è quello di inseguire un qualcosa di lucroso nell’immediato, ma altamente controproducente del futuro. Non che i privati siano da meno, la storia economica dimostra una serie impressionante di episodi del genere.

Il problema si potrebbe porre in modo molto accattivante, argomentando sul concetto di futuro.

Chi viva l’immanente nella convinzione che tutto in esso si estingua è incapace per definizione di concepire il concetto stesso di futuro. Ma senza il concetto di futuro sarebbe impossibile nutrire sentimenti di speranza.

In campo politico e militare è la differenza che intercorre tra la tattica e la strategia. Ma sempre la storia insegnerebbe come senza una chiara visione strategica sia impossibile perseguire i propri fini. Quanti invece riescono a ragionare il tali termini mettono in pratica azione dopo azione, magari anche apparentemente scollegate, ma che in realtà altro non sono che tasselli di un puzzle che quando alla fine si evidenzia nella sua pienezza e rende consolidati i fini perseguiti.

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La Germania degli ultimi decenni ha evidenziato una carenza impressionante di pensiero strategico.

Il più vistoso errore strategico è stato quelle relativo ad una politica familiare al limite del demenziale, che sta portando la Germania all’estinzione della popolazione autoctona per carenza di nascite.

Germania. La demografia che stritola. Mancano tre milioni di lavoratori. – Vbw.

Germania. Incidenza economica del calo demografico. – Bloomberg.

Germania. Realtà geografica, non più umana, politica ed economica.

Ma a questo errore si sono associate due tendenze altrettanto perverse.

La prima tendenza è stata quella di delocalizzare la produzione industriale, invece di renderla competitiva in patria. Se in un primo tempo si ha l’impressione di guadagnare, ed anche molto, alla fine si perde il know-how produttivo e le maestranze specializzate. In caso poi di tensioni, mica che si possa andare a riprendersi gli stabilimenti delocalizzati, che resteranno per sempre in territori stranieri, ossia con altre politiche produttive. Non è detto che gli stranieri debbano per forza di cose essere “nemici” ma resta il fatto che gli stabilimenti sono fuori dal controllo politico del paese delocalizzante.

La seconda tendenza è stata quella di vendere, lasciar vendere, in molti casi anche svendere, realtà produttive quasi sempre in buona salute, produttrici spesso di prodotti strategici. In linea generale non ci sarebbe stato nulla di male in tali operazioni, se a queste fossero corrisposte acquisizioni tedesche di realtà produttive straniere, cosa che non è avvenuta.

Non solo. La maggior parte di queste acquisizioni era volta a trasferire nel paese acquirente il know-how produttivo. Ottimo sistema per passare tecnologica ai concorrenti.

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«It’s not particularly logical that, after years of permissiveness toward Chinese investors buying up German industrial jewels, Berlin has decided to ban the acquisition of Leifeld Metal Spinning – a technologically advanced but small firm from the town of Ahlen in North Rhine-Westphalia»

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«Leifeld, a closely held company, makes machines and tools used in the production of extra strong metal parts that are inputs, for example, in the automotive, aerospace and nuclear industries»

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«That may sound important for national security, which was the reason cited when the government made its decision»

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«But Leifeld reported revenue of 28.5 million euros ($33.1 million) in 2014, the last year for which Bloomberg has financial data; the government has allowed much bigger companies playing an important role in strategic industries to be sold to Chinese investors. The most memorable example is Kuka, one of the global robotics leaders, acquired by Chinese appliance maker Midea for 4.5 billion euros in 2016»

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«When those acquisitions took place, Germany looked feckless at times. In recent months, however, the government has been determined to look after national interests a little more like the U.S. does, subjecting potential deals to more scrutiny and getting a state-controlled bank to preempt a Chinese investment in power grid operator 50Hertz, part of Germany’s critical infrastructure.»

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«This massive Chinese investment in Europe – at a cumulative 131.9 billion euros, it caught up last year with European investment in China, according to Rhodium Group –  isn’t always a problem»

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«the Chinese government using every opportunity to raise domestic companies’ competitiveness, technology transfers can end up going further than just the acquiring firm, whether public or private.»

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«Last year, Chinese direct investment in the EU approached 30 billion euros, compared with a reverse flow of about 7 billion»

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Bene. La Germania si avvia adesso a chiudere la stalla: peccato che i buoi se la siano già data a gambe.

Ci si domanda lecitamente cosa mai abbiano fatto di male i tedeschi ai loro governanti.


Bloomberg. 2018-08-08. Germany Is Getting Tougher on Chinese Money

Even if there’s not much logic to the toughness, it should help the EU negotiate a stalled investment deal with China.

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It’s not particularly logical that, after years of permissiveness toward Chinese investors buying up German industrial jewels, Berlin has decided to ban the acquisition of Leifeld Metal Spinning – a technologically advanced but small firm from the town of Ahlen in North Rhine-Westphalia. While it sends a clear signal that the anything-goes era is over, it’s also a worrying consequence of a dearth of clear rules.

Leifeld, a closely held company, makes machines and tools used in the production of extra strong metal parts that are inputs, for example, in the automotive, aerospace and nuclear industries. That may sound important for national security, which was the reason cited when the government made its decision. But Leifeld reported revenue of 28.5 million euros ($33.1 million) in 2014, the last year for which Bloomberg has financial data; the government has allowed much bigger companies playing an important role in strategic industries to be sold to Chinese investors. The most memorable example is Kuka, one of the global robotics leaders, acquired by Chinese appliance maker Midea for 4.5 billion euros in 2016. KraussMaffei, an industrial equipment manufacturer sold to a consortium led by ChemChina for about $1 billion, is another.

When those acquisitions took place, Germany looked feckless at times. In recent months, however, the government has been determined to look after national interests a little more like the U.S. does, subjecting potential deals to more scrutiny and getting a state-controlled bank to preempt a Chinese investment in power grid operator 50Hertz, part of Germany’s critical infrastructure.

This massive Chinese investment in Europe – at a cumulative 131.9 billion euros, it caught up last year with European investment in China, according to Rhodium Group –  isn’t always a problem. Automotive giant Zhejiang Geely saved Swedish carmaker Volvo by acquiring it in 2010. There’s no question European firms have benefited from the depth of Chinese investors’ pockets. But China is a country where the state plays an outsize role in the economy. So when state-controlled firms take part in acquisitions (in Germany, for example, they bought into KraussMaffei, energy producer EEW and other large companies), concerns about subsidies and unfair competition can be justified. Besides, with the Chinese government using every opportunity to raise domestic companies’ competitiveness, technology transfers can end up going further than just the acquiring firm, whether public or private.

The biggest concern, however, is reciprocity. Last year, Chinese direct investment in the EU approached 30 billion euros, compared with a reverse flow of about 7 billion. Some of the biggest Chinese acquisitions in Europe deals would have been impossible or at least highly unlikely for European companies in China. According to Rhodium Group, the equivalents of the Kuka and KraussMaffei deals wouldn’t have been allowed. 

It’s telling that analysts have a pretty good idea of how China would treat one investment or another, but it’s not easy to figure out what European countries might do in any specific case. Why is the Kuka deal OK, but not the Leifeld deal?

Last year, the German, French and Italian governments asked the European Commission to come up with an EU-wide mechanism for screening foreign investment. By September, the Commission came up with a proposal to assess investments according to their effect on critical infrastructure and technology, the security of important supplies and information and the investors’ government affiliations. Yet the proposal hasn’t become EU law yet because some member countries are hungry for Chinese investment and reluctant to submit to a common review process.

Perhaps that’s for the best. The EU proposal addresses security and competition concerns but not reciprocity ones. That could be justified on idealistic grounds: The EU, after all, is not Communist-run, and restrictions symmetrical to the Chinese ones wouldn’t make sense from the point of view of European values. From a practical point of view, however, any lack of reciprocity creates leverage in trade talks – something the Trump trade wars are making abundantly clear.

Both investors and targets need clarity about what can work and what can’t. The best way to deliver it would be for the EU to sign a bilateral investment treaty with China. Negotiations have been under way since 2013, but there’s no end in sight. In this context, there is perhaps some logic to the Leifeld acquisition ban. Germany has absorbed about a fifth of the total Chinese direct investment in the EU; after the U.K. leaves the bloc, it will be the number one destination for Chinese money within it. If Germany gets tough on acquisitions, it won’t be easy for Chinese firms to find equivalent targets elsewhere. So perhaps it’ll lend some new vigor to investment deal talks, especially as China and the EU find themselves allied in defending free trade from an increasingly protectionist U.S.

Pubblicato in: Commercio, Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Stati Uniti, Trump, Unione Europea

Trump. Sanzionare l’Iran per distruggere la Germania, meglio Frau Merkel. – Handelsblatt.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-08-17.

Ivan Iv. Il Terribile. 001. Viktor Michajlovič Vasnecov. Ivan IV il Terribile

Gran brutta cosa essere ideologizzati, assumendone i dogmi come fossero credo religioso non soggetto alla revisione critica della ragione. Pensiero ed azione diventano deliri coatti del tutto avulsi dalla realtà fattuale. Si pensa e si attua ciò che teoria impone, non ciò che sia retto, giusto e logico.

Se poi alla dipendenza dall’ideologia si associasse una smisurata superbia ed un inflessibile orgoglio si vivrebbe un delirio onirico caratterizzato da allucinazioni di grandezza autoreferenziale.

Potrebbero sembrare parole dure, ma sono invece mera constatazione di un dato di fatto. È nei fatti un delirio di onnipotenza: ma basta un nonnulla e la realtà strangola.

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Nel novembre 2016 la dirigenza europea, Mr Juncker, Mr Hollande e Frau Merkel nutrivano la certezza assoluta che Mrs Hillary Clinton ed i liberal democratici avrebbero stravinto le elezioni presidenziali: una incapacità di vedere e percepire la realtà del tutto anomala per capi di governo. Arrivarono al punto di mandare a Mr Trump le congratulazioni per la nomina oltre una settimana dopo le elezioni, comportamento che da un punto di vista diplomatico corrisponde ad uno sgarro severo. Quindi ne dissero tutto il male possibile, denigrandolo in ogni modo e maniera: ma le loro invettive si rilevarono presto essere altamente controproducenti. Ma chi mai si credevano di essere?

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Le parole della Bundeskanzlerin Frau Merkel furono chiare:

«we Europeans must really take our fate into our own hands» [Bundeskanzlerin Frau Merkel – NYT]

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«really take our fate into our own hands.» [Bundeskanzlerin Frau Merkel – Cnn]

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I tedeschi sono in un vicolo cieco, dal quale non potranno uscirne se non a costo di immani disastri: sono strategicamente battuti, proprio come cento anni or sono lo furono alla battaglia di Amiens, che decretò la fine della prima guerra mondiale. Adesso stiamo assisitendo alla sua agonia.

Germania. La demografia che stritola. Mancano tre milioni di lavoratori. – Vbw.

Germania. Realtà geografica, non più umana, politica ed economica.

Germania. Non è povera. È misera. – Financial Times.

Germania. 13 milioni di poveri e 330,000 famiglie con la luce tagliata.

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Stiamo adesso assistendo ad un progressivo ripudio fatto dalla confindustria tedesca nei confronti dei liberal socialisti e, soprattutto, di Frau Merkel.

Merkel, Trump e G20. Vincere o morire. – Handelsblatt.

Industriali tedeschi: Trump ha ragione e Merkel torto. – Handelsblatt.

Questa Unione Europea si sta collassando. – Handelsblatt.

Germania. ‘Conservative Manifesto’ vuole defenestrare Frau Merkel.

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L’Unione Europea e Frau Merkel si sono sempre opposte fieramente alle sanzioni poste dagli Stati Uniti all’Iran. Usarono anche parole grondanti di orgoglio.

Europe requests exemptions from Trump’s Iran sanctions for energy, aviation and more [Cnbc]

«”As allies, we expect that the United States will refrain from taking action to harm Europe’s security interests.” [Frau Merkel»

EU sets course for US clash with law blocking Iran sanctions

«The EU has put itself on a collision course with the US over Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the nuclear deal with Iran, as major European firms started to pull out of the country to avoid being hit by sanctions.

In an attempt to shield EU companies doing business with Iran, the European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, said he would turn to a plan last used to protect businesses working in Cuba before a US trade embargo was lifted on the Latin American country.

“We will begin the ‘blocking statute’ process, which aims to neutralise the extraterritorial effects of US sanctions in the EU. We must do it and we will do it tomorrow [Friday] morning at 10.30,” he said at the end of a summit in the Bulgarian capital, Sofia.»

*

EU To Activate ‘Blocking Statute’ Against U.S. Sanctions On Iran

«Speaking after a meeting of EU leaders in Sofia, Bulgaria, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker told a news conference that the EU will launch on May 18 the process of activating its so-called blocking statute.

“We have to protect our companies. We have to protect mainly those who bona fide — mainly small and medium-sized enterprises — did invest in Iran, and we cannot leave them alone,” he said.»

* * *

Alla fine Mr Trump perse la pazienza.

Trump. Colpire l’Europa attraverso la Turkia. Knockout.

Trump. Executive Order EO13846. Della vera novità nessuno ne parla.

Mr Trump aveva semplicemente ignorato eurodirigenza e governi europei, ottenendo in questa maniera il massimo risultato con il mimino sforzo. Non solo, Mr Trump aveva piantato un cuneo tra il governo tedesco e la realtà del comparto produttivo e commerciale, ponendoli in un’antitesi di vita o di morte.

Frau Merkel è diventata il nemico numero uno della confindustria tedesca,

«Anyone doing business with Iran will not be doing business with the United States»

Visto? Basta una riga per piegare l’altera Frau Merkel.

«Even as European leaders oppose the measure, the likes of Daimler and Siemens are scrambling to comply rather than risk disruption of their US business»

*

«How quickly they caved — Daimler, Volkswagen, Siemens, Bayer and many others. Despite all the brave words of defiance when the US announced renewed sanctions against Iran, German firms are suspending business with the Middle Eastern country now that they are in place for fear of President Donald Trump’s wrath»

*

«Whatever German executives might think about the wisdom or legality of the sanctions, the US market is simply too important to risk disruptions»

*

«The Berlin government has pledged to find ways to protect German companies from secondary sanctions, but they seem to prefer the safer path of not flouting sanctions to begin with»

*

«Daimler, the maker of Mercedes-Benz luxury vehicles, announced as soon as the sanctions became effective on Tuesday that it has suspended its “activities in Iran in accordance with applicable sanctions until further notice.”»

*

«Oil and gas producer Wintershall said it will close down its office in Tehran»

*

«VW warned that the truck and bus sales of its Scania unit in Iran could be completely lost»

*

«Siemens said it is taking measures to make its business activities conform to the “changed multilateral framework.”»

*

«Chemicals giant Bayer and consumer goods producer Henkel said they are reviewing their Iran business.»

*

«On the face of it, the US threat puts German firms in a quandary. “Adherence to US sanctions can conflict with EU law, which can be an offense in Germany that carries a fine of up to €500,000,” said Constantin Lauterwein of the law firm Hengeler Mueller. “At the same time, ignoring US sanctions can be a major disadvantage, especially in terms of access to the US market.”»

*

«The showdown over sanctions demonstrates once again the economic clout of the United States, severely restricting the ability of Germany or any other European country to follow a different policy»

*

«The gap between Europe’s aspirations as a wannabe great power and its impotence in the face of US power is as wide as ever»

*

«Then as now, US officials will not be paying much attention to the damage inflicted on European companies through the sanctions»

* * * * * * * *

Ci sarebbero molti validi motivi per dubitare di questa ultima affermazione: tutta questa operazione è stata condotta per obbligare i governi europei a togliersi lo scolapasta dalla testa e rientrare nei ranghi.

Nulla è più apprezzabile di un governo che eserciti la Realpolitik.


Handelsblatt. 2018-08-12. German firms bend to US sanctions, cutting ties to Iran

Even as European leaders oppose the measure, the likes of Daimler and Siemens are scrambling to comply rather than risk disruption of their US business.

*

How quickly they caved — Daimler, Volkswagen, Siemens, Bayer and many others. Despite all the brave words of defiance when the US announced renewed sanctions against Iran, German firms are suspending business with the Middle Eastern country now that they are in place for fear of President Donald Trump’s wrath.

“Anyone doing business with Iran will NOT be doing business with the United States,” the US president tweeted unequivocally on Tuesday.

Whatever German executives might think about the wisdom or legality of the sanctions, the US market is simply too important to risk disruptions. The Berlin government has pledged to find ways to protect German companies from secondary sanctions, but they seem to prefer the safer path of not flouting sanctions to begin with.

Firms adapt to ‘changed multilateral framework’

Daimler, the maker of Mercedes-Benz luxury vehicles, announced as soon as the sanctions became effective on Tuesday that it has suspended its “activities in Iran in accordance with applicable sanctions until further notice.”

Oil and gas producer Wintershall said it will close down its office in Tehran. VW warned that the truck and bus sales of its Scania unit in Iran could be completely lost. Siemens said it is taking measures to make its business activities conform to the “changed multilateral framework.” Chemicals giant Bayer and consumer goods producer Henkel said they are reviewing their Iran business.

The US said it would renew sanctions when it unilaterally pulled out of the Iran nuclear accord in May. European allies, including Germany, opposed the move and said they will uphold their end of the agreement.

Mr. Trump considered the accord reached by his predecessor, Barack Obama, to lift sanctions in exchange for Iran suspending development of nuclear weapons to be a bad deal, too full of holes to be effective. European countries fear that abandoning the accord will lead to accelerated development of nuclear weapons in Iran.

Europe’s aspirations vs reality

On the face of it, the US threat puts German firms in a quandary. “Adherence to US sanctions can conflict with EU law, which can be an offense in Germany that carries a fine of up to €500,000,” said Constantin Lauterwein of the law firm Hengeler Mueller. “At the same time, ignoring US sanctions can be a major disadvantage, especially in terms of access to the US market.”

The showdown over sanctions demonstrates once again the economic clout of the United States, severely restricting the ability of Germany or any other European country to follow a different policy. The gap between Europe’s aspirations as a wannabe great power and its impotence in the face of US power is as wide as ever.

The so-called “blocking statute” put into place by the European Union is not much help. The measure “allows EU operators to recover damages arising from US extraterritorial sanctions from the persons causing them and nullifies the effect in the EU of any foreign court rulings based on them,” the European Commission said in a press release Monday. It also forbids EU persons from complying with those sanctions.

However, Mr. Lautwein said it isn’t likely to bring a wave of lawsuits. Who is the person causing the losses – a government, a bank, a company? How do you quantify the damage?

Washington has promised further sanctions for November, directly targeting Iran’s oil and gas exports, if Tehran does not meet its demands regarding uranium enrichment and supporting terror. Then as now, US officials will not be paying much attention to the damage inflicted on European companies through the sanctions.

Pubblicato in: Demografia, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Germania. La svendita prosegue. Volontà di suicidio economico. – Reuters.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-08-17.

Berlino Porta Brandemburgo

«Germany’s Lanxess is selling its 50 percent stake in synthetic-rubber maker Arlanxeo to partner Saudi Aramco IPO-ARMO.SE for around 1.4 billion euros ($1.6 billion) in cash in a deal it said will give it more flexibility to grow»

*

«The deal marks an early exit for Lanxess from the world’s largest provider of synthetic rubber for tyres, while the Saudi state oil giant said it would “accelerate the development of growth opportunities in the kingdom, leveraging the strong feedstock position of Saudi Aramco”.»

*

«The proposed purchase underscores Saudi Aramco’s strategy to further diversify our downstream portfolio and strengthen our capabilities across the entire petroleum and chemicals value chain»

* * * * * * * *

Questo è un problema di lunga durata.

Da molto tempo la industria tedesca delocalizza la produzione e vende le proprietà.

Questo non è di per sé un agire errato, solo che consente risultati immediati ipotecando il futuro.

Non solo, sarebbe anche ben comprensibile se le imprese tedesche comprassero in eguali volumi ditte straniere e se gli stranieri impiantassero in Germania processi produttivi.

Così come stanno le cose il sistema è fortemente squilibrato. Ma logica insegna come le situazione perturbate alla fine debbano trovare un loro proprio equilibrio.

Poi, se tutto va bene, nulla da dire, ma chi mai potrebbe fidarsi ciecamente dei partner? Mica ci si potrebbe mettere in tasca uno stabilimento e riportarselo in patria.

*

Quando si progetta una nave è sicuramente del massimo interesse che possa navigare bene in acque tranquille, ma molto di più conta che possa resistere le mareggiate. Già: ci sono anche quelle.


Reuters 2018-08-10. Germany’s Lanxess gets out of rubber with Saudi Aramco sale

Germany’s Lanxess (LXSG.DE) is selling its 50 percent stake in synthetic-rubber maker Arlanxeo to partner Saudi Aramco IPO-ARMO.SE for around 1.4 billion euros ($1.6 billion) in cash in a deal it said will give it more flexibility to grow.

The deal marks an early exit for Lanxess from the world’s largest provider of synthetic rubber for tyres, while the Saudi state oil giant said it would “accelerate the development of growth opportunities in the kingdom, leveraging the strong feedstock position of Saudi Aramco”.

Aramco, which is planning to go public and looking to buy a stake in petrochemicals maker SABIC 2010.SE, plays a key role in Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s ambitions to diversify Saudi Arabia’s economy beyond oil.

“The proposed purchase underscores Saudi Aramco’s strategy to further diversify our downstream portfolio and strengthen our capabilities across the entire petroleum and chemicals value chain,” Aramco’s Senior Vice President of Downstream, Abdulaziz al-Judaimi said in a statement on Wednesday.

For Lanxess chief executive Matthias Zachert the sale will allow him to focus on more deals to strengthen its specialty chemicals activities. Lanxess has previously said it would keep the remaining half of Arlanxeo until at least 2021.

The German chemicals group expects to receive about 1.4 billion euros in cash from the deal, which is expected to complete by end of 2018, valuing all of Arlanxeo at 3.0 billion euros including debt and liabilities.

Aramco plans to boost investments in refining and petrochemicals to secure new markets and sees growth in chemicals as central to cut the risk of an oil demand slowdown.

The sale in 2015 of the first 50 percent of Arlanxeo to Saudi Aramco had valued the business at 2.75 billion euros, and was pushed by Zachert at the time to make the company less volatile amid signs of increasing global rubber oversupply.

“We increase the resilience of our business, strengthen our financial basis and gain additional strategic flexibility for further growth,” Zachert said in a statement.

Zachert has pursued deals to grow in smaller but more profitable specialty markets and vowed last year he would change the company further.

Sources familiar with the company have said the CEO could consider another takeover the size of Chemtura. Lanxess bought the U.S. maker of additives for lubricants and flame retardants for 2.4 billion euros including debt last year.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Unione Europea

Lidl. Un buco da 500 milioni (5 mld?). Il dramma delle imprese targate Spd. – Handelsblatt

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-08-10.

2018-08-07__Lidl__001

Come al solito, il problema può essere visto da differenti punti di vista, ciascuno dei quali identifica una certa quale quantità di verità. Similmente, ogni problema può essere valutato nella sua scarna essenzialità, oppure può essere valutato nella sua grande complessità analitica.

Se l’analisi dei problemi permette di metterne in luce le molte sfaccettature, la sintesi finale si centra sul principale agente concausale.

Cercheremo di essere più chiari che sia possibile.

Aspetto tecnico.

«Lidl è una catena europea di supermercati di origine tedesca.

Il nome completo della compagnia è Lidl Stiftung & Co KG. Appartiene alla Holding Schwarz, alla quale appartengono altre catene di supermercati tedesche, come Handelshof e Kaufland.

Il gruppo opera con 2 diversi sistemi distributivi: il cosiddetto discount (con insegna Lidl) e la struttura commerciale degli Iper e Super con il marchio Kaufland (che in tedesco significa il “Paese degli acquisti”). I supermercati Kaufland non sono presenti in Italia. La loro diffusione maggiore è in Germania e nei paesi dell’Europa orientale. Le due strutture (Lidl e Kaufland) non hanno apparenti contatti.

Nel 1999, secondo la lista annuale di Forbes, il proprietario di Lidl era il 37° uomo più ricco del pianeta: successivamente i suoi legali hanno chiesto che non apparisse più in questa classifica, confermando la politica di discrezione da sempre seguita dalla famiglia Schwarz…..

Secondo dati forniti nel 2004, Lidl sarebbe per grandezza la seconda catena di supermercati in Germania e inoltre è diffusa in 26 stati nel mondo, prevalentemente nell’Unione europea. Inoltre il bilancio del gruppo ammonterebbe a 36 miliardi di euro, incrementandosi del 44% ogni tre anni» [Fonte]

*

Il bilancio 2016 evidenzia un fatturato di 86 miliardi di euro, ottenuto tramite 200,000 dipendenti, la gran parte a part time. In Germania la Lidl è gestita tramite una fondazione, struttura giuridica che consente una notevole riduzione delle imposte e, soprattutto, un ragionevole anonimato dei dirigenti.

*

Negli ultimi due decenni la Lidl ha affiancato la grande distribuzione discount con l’acquisizione di impianti di produzione di alimentari, garantendo così un sicuro mercato anche a prodotti che altrimenti avrebbero potuto incontrare severe difficoltà. Da questo punto di vista l’ingresso dei paesi dell’est nell’Unione Europea è stata per Lidl una manna dal Cielo. Ma questo non è l’unico settore di diversificazione: un business particolarmente lucroso è stato quello del software gestionale per supermercati, dalla automazione delle casse alla gestione dei magazzini locali, fino alla contabilità della holding.

Aspetto politico.

Un progetto industriale di questa portata sarebbe stato semplicemente impossibile senza un consistente appoggio politico. All’epoca della grande espansione internazionale nel mondo occidentale imperava dapprima la Internazionale Socialista, trasformatasi poi in Alleanza Progressista.

L’Internazionale Socialista fu fondata il 3 giugno 1951, essendo George Papandreou l’ultimo presidente: era l’unione mondiale dei partiti d’ispirazione socialdemocratica e laburista, dei liberal democratici americani ai socialisti italiani. Essendo all’epoca i partiti di sinistra al governo in molti stati del mondo era cosa ovvia che favorissero lo sviluppo delle imprese loro vicine, che ricambiavano generosamente con finanziamenti ai partiti ed alle loro opere caritative.

Alleanza Progressista fu fondata il 22 maggio 2013 sulle rovine dell’Internazionale Socialista. L’adesione fu aperta non solo alle formazioni politiche di sinistra, ma anche a pieno titolo a tutti i partiti di ispirazione liberal. All’apice della sua potenza Alleanza Progressista coordinava l’attività politica ed economica degli Stati Uniti, del Giappone, della Germania, della Francia, del Regno Unito, dell’Italia e della Spagna, solo per citare i nomi di maggior rilievo.

Fu una potenza politica e economica mai vista in Occidente, destinata a crollare sia per le contraddizioni insite nelle ideologie liberal e socialista, sia per aver sottovalutato la portata della crescita cinese., sia infine per aver voluto sconfinare nei tempi etici e morali.

La superbia è un gran brutto vizio che porta a considerarsi fine ultimo e sovrano, dall’umano scivola impercettibilmente nell’ontologico: alla fine il superbo adora sé stesso e si illude di essere dio. Ma la realtà ridimensiona immancabilmente le ambizioni smodate.

Un esempio pratico.

Lidl aderì con entusiasmo al ruolo di supporter di Alleanza Progressista, traendone appieno tutti i congrui vantaggi. E più guadagnava più si appiattiva sull’ideologia liberal.

Ma il vento stava cambiando direzione: tutti se ne erano accorti, tranne i liberal. Per definizione infatti i superbi sono avulsi dalla realtà fattuale.

Ok. Adesso in molti non andranno più a far spesa ai Lidl.

«Croci delle chiese cancellate per non urtare la sensibilità dei clienti di fedi religiose diverse, in particolare i musulmani»

*

«È questa la strategia di marketing messa in atto dal supermercato Lidl di Camporosso, che utilizza una maxi foto del borgo di Dolceacqua sulla parete di fronte alle casse, dalla quale sono «sparite» le croci sulla facciata e sul campanile della chiesa di Sant’Antonio Abate»

*

«Ma la scelta nata da una sensibilità, probabilmente, arriva a rasentare l’eccesso. E si tramuta in un autogol, arrivando potenzialmente ad urtare, al contrario, i tanti clienti italiani»

*

«Non è la prima volta che Lidl cancella simboli religiosi da foto o pannelli»

Questa incapacità di percepire correttamente il reale si paga a caro prezzo.

Il seme del disfacimento.

Uno dei motivi della forza di Alleanza Progressista è il rispettoso ossequio alla regola che se si favoriscono politicamente le realtà amiche, a maggior ragione si tutelano le realtà economiche afferenti. Una impresa ad impronta liberal o socialista deve utilizzare prodotti e servizi di correligionari.

Se nella scala microbica questo dogma è constatabile nelle straordinarie progressioni di carriera fatte da alcuni, dai primari chirurghi focomelici a quelle dei burocrati di rara incompetenza, su scala industriale il lucro è incomparabilmente maggiore, ma solo ed esclusivamente sotto la condizione che il prodotto fisico od immateriale sia di ragionevole qualità.

Ma una regola empirica stabilisce che chi abbia bisogno di codeste ‘presentazioni’ è quasi invariabilmente una realtà che in un libero mercato mai sarebbe emersa. Einstein non aveva certo bisogno di ‘raccomandazioni’ né tanto meno una Maria Skłodowska avrebbe avuto bisogno del femminismo per conquistarsi ben due Premi Nobel: fisica e chimica.

Il problema attuale della Lidl.

«It was to be a great digital leap for Germany’s biggest discount grocer»

*

«Instead, after seven years and €500 million, Lidl’s new inventory management system with SAP is dead on arrival»

*

«It was to be a grand, transformative project for the company, the biggest in grocery chain Lidl’s history. And success appeared certain. Lidl and German software giant SAP are leaders in their respective fields. About a thousand staff and hundreds of consultants implemented a new company-wide system for inventory control for the discount grocery chain, which has close to €100 billion in annual revenue. The system, in planning since 2011, even got a cute nickname — eLWIS (pronounced like Elvis in German). In April 2017, SAP awarded Lidl a prize for being one of their best customers.»

*

«But by May 2017, Lidl’s head of IT, Alexander Sonnenmoser, had left, and in July this year, eLWIS was pronounced dead on arrival»

*

«Lidl would need to revert to its old inventory system»

*

«All this after spending an estimated €500 million on eLWIS»

*

«Changing the software necessitated reassessing almost every process at the company …. But Lidl’s management was not prepared to do that.»

*

«The cancellation of the project at Lidl is doubly annoying to SAP: They’ve lost some big business, and all the rumors are casting doubt on their own work»

* * * * * * * *

Conclusioni.

Le trimestrali di cassa della Lidl sono necessariamente complesse, essendo una multinazionale che opera in molti settori sinergici ma distinti.

Il danno non si limiterebbe ai cinquecento milioni persi nel cambio del software gestionale. A questa cifra dovrebbero essere aggiunte le perdite dovute a scollamenti dei rifornimenti e dai conseguenti triboli delle imprese produttrici di alimenti a governo Lidl.

Difficile inferire una cifra ragionevolmente comprensiva, ma nessuno si stupirebbe se raggiungesse i cinque miliardi di euro.

«Now everybody‘s asking why»

Sarebbe davvero ingenuo imputare la colpa al software.

Il commento migliore lo ha fatto un alto dirigente della Carrefour:

«Liberal, socialisti e raccomandati li presentiamo alla Lidl»

Avere la tessera socialdemocratica non è sinonimo di competenze e capacità. E siamo solo agli inizi.


Handelsblatt. 2018-08-05. Lidl software disaster another example of Germany’s digital failure

It was to be a great digital leap for Germany’s biggest discount grocer. Instead, after seven years and €500 million, Lidl’s new inventory management system with SAP is dead on arrival. Now everybody‘s asking why.

*

It was to be a grand, transformative project for the company, the biggest in grocery chain Lidl’s history. And success appeared certain. Lidl and German software giant SAP are leaders in their respective fields. About a thousand staff and hundreds of consultants implemented a new company-wide system for inventory control for the discount grocery chain, which has close to €100 billion in annual revenue. The system, in planning since 2011, even got a cute nickname — eLWIS (pronounced like Elvis in German). In April 2017, SAP awarded Lidl a prize for being one of their best customers.

But by May 2017, Lidl’s head of IT, Alexander Sonnenmoser, had left, and in July this year, eLWIS was pronounced dead on arrival. Lidl would need to revert to its old inventory system. “We are practically starting from scratch,” a company insider told Handelsblatt. All this after spending an estimated €500 million on eLWIS. Neither Lidl nor SAP will confirm that number.

Apparently one of the biggest problems was a “but this is how we always do it” mentality at Lidl. Changing the software necessitated reassessing almost every process at the company, insiders say. But Lidl’s management was not prepared to do that.

The house falls down

Unlike many of their competitors, Lidl bases its inventory management system on purchase prices. The standard SAP for Retail software uses retail prices. Lidl didn’t want to change, so the software had to be adapted. Many more accommodations had to be made, and the more changes there were to the code, the more complex and more susceptible to failure the Lidl software became.

Performance fell, costs rose. Altering existing software is like changing a prefab house, IT experts say — you can put the kitchen cupboards in a different place, but when you start moving the walls, there’s no stability.

“The strategic goals as originally defined were not possible at an acceptable expense,” Lidl boss Jesper Hoyer wrote in letter to staff.

“If a company wants to use the standard software, it has to adapt its own processes,” suggests Jean-Claude Flury, an IT manager who works in the pharmaceuticals branch and also heads a SAP-user group, DSAG, which includes more than 3,300 SAP clients. His implication: It’s the company’s fault, not the software’s.

This sector is also particularly problematic, explains Mario Zillmann, a partner at IT consultancy Lünendonk. In-house software systems are often cobbled together over decades and outdated. Not using standard software already makes “the adaptation of new technologies and transformation difficult,” he notes.

Communication may have also been a problem. The challenges the new system needed to overcome may not have been properly defined, say IT experts. Perhaps the IT department and those doing the actual work did not talk about this enough, they suggest. Also noted: Ongoing changes in senior management at Lidl, from digital technology and e-commerce divisions right to the top. After ex-Lidl chief Sven Seidel left, his successor, Mr. Hoyer, cancelled a number of planned digital initiatives, such as an online ordering service named Lidl Express.

Who’s actually to blame?

Some have taken SAP to task, asking whether its software really is the best long-term solution for inventory at such a large company. Nobody at SAP wants to talk about the Lidl drama, pointing out only that a large proportion of German retailers use SAP for Retail without these kinds of problems. Another supermarket chain, Aldi Nord, is already working with SAP software in some regional stores; a new system for Aldi’s international outlets remains a work in progress.

The cancellation of the project at Lidl is doubly annoying to SAP: They’ve lost some big business, and all the rumors are casting doubt on their own work. Officially Lidl has said that the eLWIS project ended because Lidl decided to stick with its own internal software. Unofficially, the backbiting is apparent.

Gossips are scapegoating German IT consultancy KPS, which was supposed to guide the transformation. SAP only provided the software — KPS was supposed to manage the adaptation procedures for Lidl, they say. Critics inside Lidl say that KPS was too slow. But Matthias Nollenberger, a senior manager at KPS who was responsible for overseeing the eLWIS project, says his company was working too short deadlines compared to other similar projects, and that the pilot phases in Austria, the US and Northern Ireland were all achieved on time.

One of Lidl’s biggest challenges now, apart from keeping its old inventory management system afloat, will be retaining all the IT experts it hired. Software engineers are highly in-demand all over Europe, and talented professionals may not want to keep fiddling with 30-year-old in-house code.

If they leave Lidl, the discounter will really only have one thing left after the death of their eLWIS — and that’s a big bill.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Stati Uniti, Trump

Trump. Pil T2 +4.1%, export +9.3%. Coliche biliari dei liberal democratici.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-07-27.

FED 001

Reuters non sa se essere felice come americano, oppure esserne desolato come liberal democratico.

Questo è il titolo della breaking news della Cnbc.

U.S. second-quarter GDP growth expected to top 4%

«Wall Street — and the White House — eagerly await the release of GDP data on Friday that many economists expect to top 4 percent. The last time the economy expanded at a comparable pace was in 2014, when growth hit 5.2 percent in the third quarter.

Granted, a single three-month period of rising output is a limited gauge of the economy’s health. The quarterly figures are volatile and can swing sharply from quarter to quarter. But this year’s second-quarter number will be more closely watched than usual, thanks to President Donald Trump’s repeated pledge to hit annual growth of “much higher” than 3 percent

The economy grew 2.3 percent in 2017, which is considered typical for the late stages of a post-recession recovery. GDP growth for a full year hasn’t crossed the 3 percent mark in 14 years.»

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Il The New York Times annuncia anche esso la notizia, intercalandola con la bile che ha emesso.

G.D.P. Grew at 4.1% Rate in U.S. in Latest Quarter. Here’s What That Means.

«The Commerce Department released its initial estimate of second-quarter economic growth on Friday, providing the latest snapshot of the American economy.

– United States gross domestic product rose at an annual rate of 4.1 percent in the second quarter, up from 2.2 percent in the first three months of the year. It was the strongest quarter of growth since 2014.

– Consumer spending rose 4 percent, but private investment fell slightly as the housing market cooled.

– Exports rose 9.3 percent, driven in part by a surge in soybean shipments tied to President Trump’s trade policies.

– Consumer prices rose at a 1.8 percent annual rate.

Economic growth surged in the second quarter — but don’t expect the boom to last.

The second-quarter acceleration was widely anticipated by economists, a result of a confluence of events unlikely to recur. Most economists expect growth to slow in the second half of the year.

Still, recent data does suggest that the pace of growth has picked up this year. Some economists think full-year growth in gross domestic product could hit 3 percent in 2018 for the first time in the nearly decade-long recovery, a prospect that became more likely following Friday’s strong numbers. The second quarter was the first time since 2014 that economic growth topped 4 percent in a quarter; the economy reached that level or higher just four times during the eight years of the Obama administration.

“The bottom line is that the economy is doing better,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist for the accounting firm Grant Thornton.

Mr. Trump didn’t wait for the numbers to be released to herald rosy news. At an event in Iowa on Thursday, he said he was expecting very strong result, noting predictions that ran to 5 percent or higher.

“We’ll take anything with a four in front,” he said.»

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Cerchiamo di ragionare.

«but don’t expect the boom to last»

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«Most economists expect growth to slow in the second half of the year»

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Gli economisti del NYT la vedono grigia: ‘dura minga, non può durare‘. Sono gli stessi economisti che da circa trenta anni celebrano anticipatamente i funerali al sistema economico cine, che invece sopravvive alla grande. Non hanno molto feeling con le previsioni.

Ma il meglio è in coda

«the economy is doing better»

Ma a dir ciò è niente po po di meno che Mrs Diane Swonk, “chief economist for the accounting firm Grant Thornton.”

Ma allora: gli economisti dicono che va male oppure he va bene?

*

I liberal democratici stanno annegando nel mare di bile che si stanno facendo da quando al governo c’è Mr Trump.

«Republican tax cuts are probably also playing a role»

Già. Lascia la gente a lavorare in pace, ed il paese prospera.

Non servirebbe essere Pico della Mirandola per arrivarci.


Cnbc. 2018-07-27. Second-quarter GDP jumps 4.1% for best pace in nearly four years

– Gross domestic product increased 4.1 percent in the second quarter, matching Reuters estimates.

– Strong consumer and business spending as well as a surge in exports ahead of retaliatory tariffs from China helped drive economic growth.

 The last time the economy grew this quickly was in the third quarter of 2014.

*

Gross domestic product grew at a solid 4.1 percent pace in the second quarter, its best pace since 2014, boosting hopes that the economy is ready to break out of its decade-long slumber.

The number matched expectations from economists surveyed by Reuters and was boosted by a surge in consumer spending and business investment. Stock market futures edged lower on the news while government bond yields moved lower.

That’s the fastest rate of the growth since the 4.9 percent in the third quarter of 2014 and the third-best growth rate since the Great Recession. In addition to the strong second quarter, the Commerce Department revised its first-quarter reading up from 2 percent to 2.2 percent.

In addition to the rise in consumer and business spending, increases in exports and government spending also helped. Personal consumption expenditures rose 4 percent while business investment grew 7.3 percent while federal government outlays increased by 3.5 percent.

Exports rose in part as farmers rushed to get soybeans to China ahead of expected retaliatory tariffs to take effect in the coming days. Declines in private inventory investment and residential fixed investment were the main drags, the report said.

The tariffs as well as last year’s massive tax cut both were key factors in the growth.

“Bottom line, if it wasn’t for a big upside to inflation, GDP would have been much better because of the upside in spending, boost in exports and government spending which offset an unexpected sharp decline in inventories and no change in gross private investment,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group.

“We hope capital investment continues to improve in light of the tax incentive to ramp up,” he added. “The consumer has tax cuts and higher wages on one side and a low savings rate and a recent credit card binge on the other.”

In recent days, White House officials had been indicating the reading will be strong.

President Donald Trump himself tweeted a few days ago that the U.S. has the “best financial numbers on the planet,” while National Economic Council Chairman Larry Kudlow predicted on Thursday that Q2 GDP will be “big.”

The administration has used a mix of tax cuts, deregulation and spending increases to goose growth. White House budget director Mick Mulvaney told CNBC earlier this week that deregulation likely has had the most impact so far as companies feel more comfortable about committing capital.

The next question will be whether the growth spurt is sustainable. There were several jumps in GDP under former President Barack Obama. That Q3 increase in 2014 was preceded by a 5.1 percent rise in the second quarter. But by the end of 2015, growth had slowed to 0.4 percent. Federal Reserve officials forecast GDP to rise 2.8 percent for all of 2018 but then to tail off to 2.4 percent in 2019 and 2 percent in 2020.

Some economists worried that the jump in consumer spending for the April-to-June period may not be sustainable, adding to skepticism that the gains will continue.

“Personal consumption would need to keep up with this impressive pace to see a solid second half,” said Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets.

Economists generally expect the trade war between the U.S. and China to temper further growth. Trump has slapped 25 percent duties on $34 billion worth of Chinese imports and has threatened $200 billion more. The administration also has put tariffs on steel and aluminum.

However, more recently the administration said it has made progress on trade agreements with the European Union.

In a recent forecast, Goldman Sachs said the effects from trade disputes are “typically modest,” shaving about 0.2 percent from output.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Commercio, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Cina. Pil T2 +6.8% anno/anno. I dazi cinesi.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-07-21.

2018-07-16__Cina__001

Nel secondo trimestre il Pil cinese è incrementato del 6.8%, su base annuale.

Se si pensasse che a fine 2000 il pil ammontava a 1,214.915 miliardi Usd contro gli 11,221.836 miliardi Usd a fine 2016, si constaterebbe che in questo arco di tempo è aumento di un fattore dieci.

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Di questi tempi si fa un gran parlare dei dazi che gli Stato Uniti stanno mettendo sulle merci cinesi, ma ben poco si considerano i dazi cinesi sui beni americani ed occidentali in senso lato.

Si tenga presente che al momento attuale i dazi cinesi, amministrati e riscossi dal State Administration of Taxation of Customs, rendono conto del 3.5% del totale delle entrate fiscali.

«La più diffusa tariffa d’importazione resta, in ogni caso, la most favoured nations la cui aliquota varia da 0% a 65%, laddove le general tariff rates possono addirittura superare un rate del 250%. ….

Gli export duty hanno un’aliquota che varia da 20% a 50% mentre è applicata un’imposta fino al 40% per le merci soggette a provisional tariff rates. Consigliabile, comunque, di prendere visione delle tariffe applicate ad ogni singolo bene per conoscere a pieno l’ammontare esatto dell’aliquota d’imposta» [Fonte]

RsA Asia ha stilato un elenco dei dazi cinesi.

Se sulla pelletteria il dazio medio è del 20%, sugli indumenti sale al 25%. Sulle macchine endotermiche abbiamo dazi del 30%, così come sugli apparecchi elettrici. Questo solo per fare degli esempi.

Il problema si configurerebbe quindi come la necessità di rimodulare i dazi da ambo le parti.

Non sembrerebbe sinceramente cosa onesta guardare solo ai dazi praticati da una delle due parti.


Sole 24 Ore. 2018-07-16. Cina, Pil in crescita nel secondo trimestre: +6,7% su base annua

La Cina, nel mezzo delle tensioni commerciali con gli Usa, segna nel secondo trimestre del 2018 un Pil in crescita dell’1,8% su base congiunturale e del 6,7% su base annua: i dati, diffusi dal Ufficio nazionale di statistica, si confrontano, rispettivamente, con il +1,4% e il +6,8% del primo trimestre e il +1,4% e il +6,7% delle previsioni formulate degli economisti. La crescita su base annua rallenta, ma quella congiunturale batte le attese, spingendo a un rialzo semestrale del 6,8%. Caldissimo il tema dei dazi, sul fronte delle relazioni internazionali, come dimostra anche la conferenza stampa congiunta Cina-Ue.

L’appello di Tusk: «Evitiamo guerre commerciali»

«È comune dovere di Ue, Cina, Usa e Russia non iniziare guerre commerciali», ha detto il presidente del Consiglio europeo Donald Tusk, parlando accanto al premier cinese Li Keqiang e al presidente della Commissione Ue Jean-Claude Juncker. «C’è ancora tempo per prevenire il conflitto e il caos». Tusk ha «ripetuto» quanto appena riferito al premier Li durante il bilaterale Cina-Ue: «Oggi, nello stesso giorno in cui l’Europa incontra la Cina a Pechino, il presidente americano Trump e il presidente russo Putin parleranno a Helsinki. Siamo tutti consapevoli del fatto che l’architettura del mondo sta cambiando sotto i nostri occhi». Ed è «nostra responsabilità comune renderlo un cambiamento per il meglio. Ricordiamo, qui a Pechino, e là, a Helsinki, che il mondo che stavamo costruendo da decenni, a volte attraverso dispute, ha portato la pace per l’Europa, lo sviluppo della Cina e la fine della Guerra Fredda tra l’Oriente e l’Occidente. È un dovere comune dell’Europa e della Cina, dell’America e della Russia, non distruggere questo ordine, ma migliorarlo», ha detto Tusk.

Wto da cambiare

In altri termini, «non iniziare guerre commerciali, che si sono trasformate in conflitti così spesso nella nostra storia, ma per riformare coraggiosamente e responsabilmente l’ordine internazionale basato sulle regole. Per questo motivo chiedo ai nostri padroni di casa cinesi, ma anche ai presidenti Trump e Putin di avviare congiuntamente questo processo di riforma del Wto», l’Organizzazione mondiale del Commercio. «C’è ancora tempo per prevenire il conflitto e il caos. Oggi siamo di fronte a un dilemma: se giocare a un gioco duro come guerre tariffarie e conflitti in luoghi come l’Ucraina e la Siria, o cercare soluzioni comuni basate su regole eque. Questo è il motivo per cui responsabilità, prevedibilità, spirito di cooperazione e rispetto delle nostre regole e degli impegni comuni sono così importanti in questi giorni». L’Ue, ha concluso Tusk, «è impegnata a lavorare per la modernizzazione del Wto»: c’è bisogno di nuove regole in materia di sussidi industriali, proprietà intellettuale e trasferimenti forzati di tecnologia, riduzione dei costi commerciali, nonché di un nuovo approccio allo sviluppo e alle risoluzione delle controversie più efficace. In questo scenario, il Wto va rafforzato «come istituzione e come garanzia di parità di condizioni».

Ricorso cinese al Wto contro i dazi Usa

A proposito di World Trade Organization: la Cina ha deciso di ricorrere al Wto, contro la minaccia di dazi aggiuntivi al 10% annunciati dagli Usa sull’import di beni «made in China» per 200 miliardi di dollari ex art.301 dello Us Trade Act. La mossa, annunciata con un post sul sito del ministero del Commercio, cade nel giorno in cui Cina e Ue, nel loro 20esimo summit annuale, hanno ribadito l’impegno congiunto per il multilateralismo e il libero scambio.