Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Geopolitica Mondiale, Materie Prime, Putin, Russia

Russia. Mr Putin ha vinto la guerra energetica. – Bloomberg.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-08-15.

2022-08-13__ In the Energy Markets, Putin Is Winning the War 001

«Putin is winning the energy battle»

«No matter what indicator you use, Russian President Vladimir Putin is winning in the energy markets.

«Putin sta vincendo la battaglia energetica»

«Non importa quale indicatore si usi, il presidente russo Vladimir Putin sta vincendo sui mercati energetici»

* * * * * * *

Questo articolo allegato riporta in modo ben coordinato una lunga serie di elementi già noti. La sua intrinseca novità consiste nel fatto che è edito da Bloomberg, ossia dal tempio dell’ideologia liberal, tutto loggia e culto di ogni anche impensabile possibile perversione.

Ammette ore rotundo che la Russia del Presidente Putin abbia vinto il conflitto che Joe Biden e la Nato gli hanno dichiarato, coprendola di sanzioni, nella vana speranza di portarla al fallimento.

* * * * * * *

Non importa quale indicatore si usi, il presidente russo Vladimir Putin sta vincendo sui mercati energetici. Mosca sta mungendo la sua mucca da mungere, guadagnando centinaia di milioni di dollari ogni giorno per finanziare l’invasione dell’Ucraina e comprare il sostegno interno alla guerra. Quando le sanzioni europee contro le esportazioni di greggio russo entreranno in vigore da novembre, i governi della regione si troveranno di fronte a scelte difficili, poiché la crisi energetica inizierà a colpire consumatori e aziende.

I costi dell’elettricità per le case e le imprese sono destinati a salire a partire da ottobre, poiché l’aumento dei proventi del petrolio consente a Putin di sacrificare le entrate del gas e di comprimere le forniture all’Europa. I prezzi nel Regno Unito saliranno probabilmente del 75%, mentre in Germania alcune aziende municipalizzate hanno già avvertito che i prezzi aumenteranno di oltre il 100%. La Russia è riuscita ad armare le forniture energetiche.

I governi occidentali saranno sempre più costretti a spendere miliardi per sovvenzionare le bollette delle famiglie o, come già avviene in Francia, per assumere il controllo delle società elettriche.

Il primo indicatore che mostra come Putin abbia invertito la tendenza del petrolio è la produzione russa di greggio. Il mese scorso, la produzione del Paese è tornata a livelli vicini a quelli prebellici, con una media di quasi 10.8 milioni di barili al giorno, solo marginalmente in calo rispetto agli 11 milioni pompati a gennaio, immediatamente prima dell’invasione dell’Ucraina.

Dopo questa lotta iniziale, la Russia ha trovato nuovi clienti per il milione di barili al giorno circa che i raffinatori europei hanno smesso di acquistare a causa dell’autosanzione. La maggior parte di questo greggio sta finendo in Asia – in particolare in India – ma anche in Turchia e altrove in Medio Oriente. Una parte è ancora presente in Europa, con gli acquirenti che continuano ad acquistare greggio russo prima dell’introduzione delle sanzioni ufficiali prevista per l’inizio di novembre.

Il secondo indicatore è il prezzo del petrolio russo. Inizialmente, Mosca è stata costretta a vendere i suoi sapori di greggio con sconti enormi rispetto ad altre varietà per attirare gli acquirenti. Nelle ultime settimane, tuttavia, il Cremlino ha riacquistato il potere di determinazione dei prezzi, approfittando di un mercato ristretto.

Il greggio ESPO è passato di mano alla parità con Dubai. Il greggio Urals, il fiore all’occhiello delle esportazioni russe di petrolio verso l’Europa, non sta beneficiando quanto l’ESPO, poiché i suoi principali acquirenti sono tradizionalmente paesi come la Germania piuttosto che l’India. Ma sta anche recuperando il prezzo, vendendo di recente a 20-25 dollari al barile in meno rispetto al Brent di riferimento, dopo essere stato scambiato con uno sconto di quasi 35 dollari all’inizio di aprile. Mosca sta trovando nuovi commercianti di materie prime, spesso operanti dal Medio Oriente e dall’Asia e probabilmente finanziati dal denaro russo, disposti ad acquistare il suo greggio e a spedirlo verso mercati affamati.

L’ultimo indicatore del successo russo è politico, più che di mercato. A marzo e aprile, i politici occidentali erano ottimisti sul fatto che il cartello OPEC, guidato da Arabia Saudita ed Emirati Arabi Uniti, avrebbe abbandonato l’alleanza con la Russia. È accaduto il contrario.

Nonostante il viaggio del Presidente degli Stati Uniti Joseph Biden a Riyadh, Putin ha mantenuto la sua influenza all’interno dell’alleanza OPEC+. Poco dopo la partenza di Biden dall’Arabia Saudita, il vice primo ministro russo Alexander Novak, persona di riferimento della nazione per la gestione delle relazioni con il cartello, è volato nel regno.

La vittoria sul mercato petrolifero significa che Putin può permettersi di rinunciare alle entrate limitando le vendite di gas naturale all’Europa, mettendo sotto pressione Berlino, Parigi e Londra, che si stanno preparando a un massiccio aumento dei prezzi dell’energia al dettaglio e a una potenziale carenza che potrebbe portare al razionamento quest’inverno. Mosca sta facendo così tanti soldi vendendo petrolio che può permettersi di limitare le forniture di greggio anche ai Paesi dell’Europa orientale, come ha fatto all’inizio di questa settimana.

Una combinazione di freddo, aumento della domanda di elettricità e impennata dei prezzi nel corso dell’anno rischia di minare il sostegno occidentale all’Ucraina. I politici europei che sono stati ansiosi di ottenere il plauso internazionale ostentando il loro sostegno a Kiev potrebbero essere meno disposti a pagare il conto interno per evitare la povertà energetica tra i loro elettori.

Putin sta vincendo la battaglia energetica.

* * * * * * *

«No matter what indicator you use, Russian President Vladimir Putin is winning in the energy markets. Moscow is milking its oil cash cow, earning hundreds of millions of dollars every day to bankroll the invasion of Ukraine and buy domestic support for the war. Once European sanctions against Russian crude exports kick in from November, the region’s governments will face some tough choices as the energy crisis starts to bite consumers and companies»

«Electricity costs for homes and businesses are set to soar from October, as the surge in oil income allows Putin to sacrifice gas revenue and squeeze supplies to Europe. UK prices are likely to jump by 75%, while in Germany some municipal utilities have already warned prices will increase in excess of 100%. Russia has successfully weaponized energy supplies»

«Western governments will come under increasing pressure to spend billions either subsidizing household bills or, as is already the case in France, by taking control of power companies»

«The first indicator showing how Putin has turned the oil tide is Russian crude production. Last month, the country’s output climbed back to near pre-war levels, averaging almost 10.8 million barrels per day, only marginally down from the 11 million pumped in January immediately prior to the invasion of Ukraine»

«After that initial struggle, Russia has found new customers for the million barrels a day or so that European oil refiners have stopped purchasing due to self-sanctioning. Most of that crude is ending up in Asia — notably India — but also in Turkey and elsewhere in the Middle East. And some is still showing up in Europe, with buyers still purchasing Russian crude ahead of the planned introduction of official sanctions in early November»

«The second indicator is the price of Russian oil. Initially, Moscow was forced to sell its flavors of crude at huge discounts to other varieties to entice buyers. In recent weeks, however, the Kremlin has regained pricing power, taking advantage of a tight market»

«ESPO crude has changed hands at parity to Dubai. Urals crude, the flagship Russian oil export to Europe, isn’t benefiting as much as ESPO, as its key buyers have traditionally been countries such as Germany rather than India. But it’s also recovering in price, selling recently at $20 to $25 a barrel cheaper than the Brent benchmark, after trading at a discount of almost $35 in early April. Moscow is finding new commodity traders, often operating from the Middle East and Asia and probably financed by Russian money, willing to buy its crude and ship it to hungry markets»

«The final indicator of Russian success is political, rather than market related. Back in March and April, Western policy makers were optimistic that the OPEC cartel, led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, would ditch its alliance with Russia. The opposite has been the case»

«Despite a trip by US President Joseph Biden to Riyadh, Putin has retained his influence inside the OPEC+ alliance. Soon after Biden departed from Saudi Arabia, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, the nation’s point-person managing the relationship with the cartel, flew to the kingdom»

«The oil market victory means Putin can afford to forego revenue by restricting natural gas sales to Europe, putting pressure on Berlin, Paris and London, which are bracing for massive retail energy price increases and potential shortages that may lead to rationing this winter. Moscow is making so much money selling oil it can afford to restrict crude supply to Eastern European nations, too, as it did earlier this week»

«A combination of cold weather, surging demand for electricity and soaring prices later this year risks undermining Western support for Ukraine. European politicians who’ve been eager to win international kudos by flaunting their support for Kyiv may be less willing to foot the domestic bill for averting energy poverty among their own voters»

«Putin is winning the energy battle»

* * * * * * *


In the Energy Markets, Putin Is Winning the War – Bloomberg.

No matter what indicator you use, Russian President Vladimir Putin is winning in the energy markets. Moscow is milking its oil cash cow, earning hundreds of millions of dollars every day to bankroll the invasion of Ukraine and buy domestic support for the war. Once European sanctions against Russian crude exports kick in from November, the region’s governments will face some tough choices as the energy crisis starts to bite consumers and companies.

Electricity costs for homes and businesses are set to soar from October, as the surge in oil income allows Putin to sacrifice gas revenue and squeeze supplies to Europe. UK prices are likely to jump by 75%, while in Germany some municipal utilities have already warned prices will increase in excess of 100%. Russia has successfully weaponized energy supplies; Western governments will come under increasing pressure to spend billions either subsidizing household bills or, as is already the case in France, by taking control of power companies.

The first indicator showing how Putin has turned the oil tide is Russian crude production. Last month, the country’s output climbed back to near pre-war levels, averaging almost 10.8 million barrels per day, only marginally down from the 11 million pumped in January immediately prior to the invasion of Ukraine. Based on industry estimates, oil production is slightly higher so far this month. 

It isn’t a blip: July marked the third consecutive month of oil production recovery, with output up significantly from this year’s low point of 10 million barrels set in April, when European buyers started shunning Russia and Moscow scrambled to find new buyers.  

After that initial struggle, Russia has found new customers for the million barrels a day or so that European oil refiners have stopped purchasing due to self-sanctioning. Most of that crude is ending up in Asia — notably India — but also in Turkey and elsewhere in the Middle East. And some is still showing up in Europe, with buyers still purchasing Russian crude ahead of the planned introduction of official sanctions in early November. Everyone who bet that Russian oil production would continue to drop — myself included — got it wrong. 

The second indicator is the price of Russian oil. Initially, Moscow was forced to sell its flavors of crude at huge discounts to other varieties to entice buyers. In recent weeks, however, the Kremlin has regained pricing power, taking advantage of a tight market. 

ESPO crude, a category of Russian oil from the Far East, is a good example of the new trend. At the low earlier this year,  it sold at a discount of more than $20 a barrel to Dubai crude, the regional oil benchmark for Asia. Recently, ESPO crude has changed hands at parity to Dubai. Urals crude, the flagship Russian oil export to Europe, isn’t benefiting as much as ESPO, as its key buyers have traditionally been countries such as Germany rather than India. But it’s also recovering in price, selling recently at $20 to $25 a barrel cheaper than the Brent benchmark, after trading at a discount of almost $35 in early April. 

Moscow is finding new commodity traders, often operating from the Middle East and Asia and probably financed by Russian money, willing to buy its crude and ship it to hungry markets. With Brent crude hovering at close to $100 a barrel, and with Russia able to offer smaller discounts, there’s plenty of money coming in to the Kremlin. For now at least, energy sanctions aren’t working. 

The final indicator of Russian success is political, rather than market related. Back in March and April, Western policy makers were optimistic that the OPEC cartel, led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, would ditch its alliance with Russia. The opposite has been the case.

Despite a trip by US President Joseph Biden to Riyadh, Putin has retained his influence inside the OPEC+ alliance. Soon after Biden departed from Saudi Arabia, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, the nation’s point-person managing the relationship with the cartel, flew to the kingdom. A few days later, OPEC+ announced a minuscule oil production increase, keeping pressure on global energy markets.

The oil market victory means Putin can afford to forego revenue by restricting natural gas sales to Europe, putting pressure on Berlin, Paris and London, which are bracing for massive retail energy price increases and potential shortages that may lead to rationing this winter. Moscow is making so much money selling oil it can afford to restrict crude supply to Eastern European nations, too, as it did earlier this week.

A combination of cold weather, surging demand for electricity and soaring prices later this year risks undermining Western support for Ukraine. European politicians who’ve been eager to win international kudos by flaunting their support for Kyiv may be less willing to foot the domestic bill for averting energy poverty among their own voters.

In public, European governments are still resolute in their determination to wean themselves off Russian energy. Privately, they must be acknowledging the hardships that stance threatens to inflict on their economies. Putin is winning the energy battle; let’s hope that leverage isn’t powerful enough to prompt Western politicians to soften their stance in the real war.

Pubblicato in: Putin, Russia

Putin. Abstract Discorso per il 70th anniversario della vittoria nella Grande Guerra Patriottica.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-05-10.Putin 1002

 

«The Great Victory will always remain a heroic pinnacle in the history of our country»

«We are grateful to the peoples of Great Britain, France and the United States of America for their contribution to the Victory»

«It is precisely these values that became the foundation of the post-war world order»

«However, in the last decades, the basic principles of international cooperation have come to be increasingly ignored»

«These are the principles that have been hard won by mankind as a result of the ordeal of the war.»

«We saw attempts to establish a unipolar world»

«These also include servicemen from China, which, just like the Soviet Union, lost many millions of people in this war»

«We bow to those who perished in severe battles near Moscow and Stalingrad, at the Kursk Bulge and on the Dnieper»

«The Soviet Banner of Victory is the banner raised by the Red Army soldiers on the Reichstag building in Berlin, on April 30, 1945, the day that Adolf Hitler committed suicide. It was raised by three Soviet soldiers: Alexei Berest, Mikhail Yegorov, and Meliton Kantaria, from Ukraine, Russia, and Georgia respectively»

«NATO was creating tensions at the borders. They did not want to listen to Russia, they had other plans»

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Transcript of Russia’s President Vladimir Putin’s V-Day Speech: 70th Anniversary of “Victory in the Great Patriotic War”

Today, when we mark this sacred anniversary, we once again appreciate the enormous scale of Victory over Nazism. We are proud that it was our fathers and grandfathers who succeeded in prevailing over, smashing and destroying that dark force.

Hitler’s reckless adventure became a tough lesson for the entire world community. At that time, in the 1930s, the enlightened Europe failed to see the deadly threat in the Nazi ideology.

Today, seventy years later, the history calls again to our wisdom and vigilance. We must not forget that the ideas of racial supremacy and exclusiveness had provoked the bloodiest war ever. The war affected almost 80 percent of the world population. Many European nations were enslaved and occupied.

The Soviet Union bore the brunt of the enemy’s attacks. The elite Nazi forces were brought to bear on it. All their military power was concentrated against it. And all major decisive battles of World War II, in terms of military power and equipment involved, had been waged there.

And it is no surprise that it was the Red Army that, by taking Berlin in a crushing attack, hit the final blow to Hitler’s Germany finishing the war.

Our entire multi-ethnic nation rose to fight for our Motherland’s freedom. Everyone bore the severe burden of the war. Together, our people made an immortal exploit to save the country. They predetermined the outcome of World War II. They liberated European nations from the Nazis.

Veterans of the Great Patriotic War, wherever they live today, should know that here, in Russia, we highly value their fortitude, courage and dedication to frontline brotherhood.

Dear friends,

The Great Victory will always remain a heroic pinnacle in the history of our country. But we also pay tribute to our allies in the anti-Hitler coalition.

We are grateful to the peoples of Great Britain, France and the United States of America for their contribution to the Victory. We are thankful to the anti-fascists of various countries who selflessly fought the enemy as guerrillas and members of the underground resistance, including in Germany itself.

We remember the historical meeting on the Elbe, and the trust and unity that became our common legacy and an example of unification of peoples – for the sake of peace and stability.

It is precisely these values that became the foundation of the post-war world order. The United Nations came into existence. And the system of the modern international law has emerged.

These institutions have proved in practice their effectiveness in resolving disputes and conflicts.

However, in the last decades, the basic principles of international cooperation have come to be increasingly ignored. These are the principles that have been hard won by mankind as a result of the ordeal of the war.

We saw attempts to establish a unipolar world. We see the strong-arm block thinking gaining momentum. All that undermines sustainable global development.

The creation of a system of equal security for all states should become our common task. Such system should be an adequate match to modern threats, and it should rest on a regional and global non-block basis. Only then will we be able to ensure peace and tranquillity on the planet.

Dear friends,

We welcome today all our foreign guests while expressing a particular gratitude to the representatives of the countries that fought against Nazism and Japanese militarism.

Besides the Russian servicemen, parade units of ten other states will march through the Red Square as well. These include soldiers from Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Their forefathers fought shoulder to shoulder both at the front and in the rear.

These also include servicemen from China, which, just like the Soviet Union, lost many millions of people in this war. China was also the main front in the fight against militarism in Asia.

Indian soldiers fought courageously against the Nazis as well.

Serbian troops also offered strong and relentless resistance to the fascists.

Throughout the war our country received strong support from Mongolia.

These parade ranks include grandsons and great-grandsons of the war generation. The Victory Day is our common holiday. The Great Patriotic War was in fact the battle for the future of the entire humanity.

Our fathers and grandfathers lived through unbearable sufferings, hardships and losses. They worked till exhaustion, at the limit of human capacity. They fought even unto death. They proved the example of honour and true patriotism.

We pay tribute to all those who fought to the bitter for every street, every house and every frontier of our Motherland. We bow to those who perished in severe battles near Moscow and Stalingrad, at the Kursk Bulge and on the Dnieper.

We bow to those who died from famine and cold in the unconquered Leningrad, to those who were tortured to death in concentration camps, in captivity and under occupation.

We bow in loving memory of sons, daughters, fathers, mothers, grandfathers, husbands, wives, brothers, sisters, comrades-in-arms, relatives and friends – all those who never came back from war, all those who are no longer with us.

A minute of silence is announced.

[Minute of silence.]

Dear veterans,

You are the main heroes of the Great Victory Day. Your feat predestined peace and decent life for many generations. It made it possible for them to create and move forward fearlessly.

And today your children, grandchildren and great-grandchildren live up to the highest standards that you set. They work for the sake of their country’s present and future. They serve their Fatherland with devotion. They respond to complex challenges of the time with honour. They guarantee the successful development, might and prosperity of our Motherland, our Russia!

Long live the victorious people!

Happy holiday!

Congratulations on the Victory Day!

Hooray!

The Soviet Banner of Victory is the banner raised by the Red Army soldiers on the Reichstag building in Berlin, on April 30, 1945, the day that Adolf Hitler committed suicide. It was raised by three Soviet soldiers: Alexei Berest, Mikhail Yegorov, and Meliton Kantaria, from Ukraine, Russia, and Georgia respectively.

The Victory Banner, made under battlefield conditions, is the official symbol of the Victory of the Soviet people against Nazi Germany during the second world war. It is also believed to be one of the national treasures of Russia. The Cyrillic inscription reads:

150th Rifle, Order of Kutuzov 2nd class, Idritsa Division, 79th Rifle Corps, 3rd Shock Army, 1st Byelorussian Front.

Although this flag was not the only one to be hoisted on the Reichstag, it was the first and only survivor of all the “official” flags specially prepared to be raised there. On May 9, during Victory Day parade in Moscow, a copy of Victory Banner #5 is carried immediately behind the Russian flag by members of the 154th Moscow Commandant’s Regiment Honor and Colors Guards.

According to the Law of the Russian Federation, the Banner of Victory is to be stored forever in a place which provides its safety and public availability.

Pubblicato in: Putin, Russia

Russia. Discorso del Presidente Putin alla fabbrica aerospaziale.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-04-16.

2022-04-15__ Putin 001

«Russian President Vladimir Putin has vowed to continue the invasion of Ukraine until his country’s “noble” aims are fulfilled»

«In a rare public appearance, he said peace talks had reached a dead end and insisted the invasion – which is in its sixth week – was going as planned»

«He was visiting a space facility in eastern Russia with Belarusian leader Aleksandr Lukashenko, one of his closest allies, to mark the 61st anniversary of Yuri Gagarin becoming the first man in space»

«The Russian leader claimed he had been left with no choice but to launch the invasion in a bid to protect Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine»

«On the one hand, we are helping and saving people, and on the other, we are simply taking measures to ensure the security of Russia itself»

«It’s clear that we didn’t have a choice. It was the right decision»

«Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov admitted last week that the country had suffered “significant losses of troops” since the conflict began»

«Western leaders believe that between 7,000 and 15,000 Russian soldiers have been killed»

«Russia did not “intend to be isolated”, arguing that it was “impossible to severely isolate anyone in the modern world – especially such a vast country as Russia”»

«Why on earth are we getting so worried about these sanctions?»

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In calce riportiamo la traduzione in lingua italiana dell’articolo allegato.

* * * * * * *


Ukraine war: Putin vows to continue invasion until ‘noble’ aims met

Russian President Vladimir Putin has vowed to continue the invasion of Ukraine until his country’s “noble” aims are fulfilled.

In a rare public appearance, he said peace talks had reached a dead end and insisted the invasion – which is in its sixth week – was going as planned.

A Ukrainian official, however, told Reuters news agency that negotiations were difficult but continuing.

Mr Putin’s comments were his first on the conflict in more than a week.

In contrast to the early days of the war he has more recently kept a lower profile.

He was visiting a space facility in eastern Russia with Belarusian leader Aleksandr Lukashenko, one of his closest allies, to mark the 61st anniversary of Yuri Gagarin becoming the first man in space.

The Russian leader claimed he had been left with no choice but to launch the invasion in a bid to protect Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine.

The Kremlin claims that Ukraine has committed genocide against Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine, but there is no evidence to support this,

“On the one hand, we are helping and saving people, and on the other, we are simply taking measures to ensure the security of Russia itself,” the 69-year old insisted.

“It’s clear that we didn’t have a choice. It was the right decision,” he said, adding that Russia would “rhythmically and calmly” continue the invasion.

Moscow has shifted its focus to eastern Ukraine, moving troops away from the north after encountering fierce resistance in the initial weeks of what it called its “special operation”.

The UN says 10 million people have fled their homes since the invasion began.

Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov admitted last week that the country had suffered “significant losses of troops” since the conflict began.

Neither Russia nor Ukraine’s estimates of Russian losses can be independently verified – and analysts have cautioned that Russia may be downplaying its casualty rate, while Ukraine could be inflating it to boost morale. Western leaders believe that between 7,000 and 15,000 Russian soldiers have been killed.

The Russian economy has also been rocked by a package of severe sanctions imposed by Western nations.

However, on Tuesday, Mr Putin said Russia did not “intend to be isolated”, arguing that it was “impossible to severely isolate anyone in the modern world – especially such a vast country as Russia”.

Mr Lukashenko also dismissed the impact of sanctions, asking Mr Putin: “Why on earth are we getting so worried about these sanctions?”

Last week, the UK government predicted that Russia is heading for its deepest recession since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

In other developments:

– Russia intensified its efforts to take the besieged southern port city of Mariupol. The city’s mayor said an estimated 21,000 people had died there, but officials have had to stop counting bodies due to street fighting

– Also in the city, Western governments and international organisations expressed concern about unconfirmed reports of chemical agents being used by Russia there

– Ukraine’s security service said it had arrested fugitive pro-Russian politician Viktor Medvedchuk. He had been under house arrest on suspicion of treason but went on the run days after Russian began its invasion

– And the governor of Luhansk in eastern Ukraine said around 400 civilians have been buried in the town of Severodonetsk near the frontline since the start of the invasion

* * * * * * *


Guerra in Ucraina: Putin giura di continuare l’invasione fino a quando i “nobili” obiettivi non saranno raggiunti

Il presidente russo Vladimir Putin ha giurato di continuare l’invasione dell’Ucraina fino a quando i “nobili” obiettivi del suo paese non saranno soddisfatti.

In una rara apparizione pubblica, ha detto che i colloqui di pace hanno raggiunto un vicolo cieco e ha insistito che l’invasione – che è alla sua sesta settimana – sta andando come previsto.

Un funzionario ucraino, tuttavia, ha detto all’agenzia di stampa Reuters che i negoziati erano difficili ma continuavano.

I commenti di Putin sono stati i suoi primi sul conflitto in più di una settimana.

In contrasto con i primi giorni della guerra, recentemente ha mantenuto un profilo più basso.

Stava visitando un impianto spaziale nella Russia orientale con il leader bielorusso Aleksandr Lukashenko, uno dei suoi più stretti alleati, per celebrare il 61° anniversario di Yuri Gagarin, il primo uomo nello spazio.

Il leader russo ha affermato di non aver avuto altra scelta che lanciare l’invasione nel tentativo di proteggere i russofoni dell’Ucraina orientale.

Il Cremlino sostiene che l’Ucraina ha commesso un genocidio contro i russofoni dell’Ucraina orientale, ma non ci sono prove a sostegno,

“Da un lato, stiamo aiutando e salvando le persone, e dall’altro, stiamo semplicemente prendendo misure per garantire la sicurezza della Russia stessa”, ha insistito il 69enne.

“È chiaro che non avevamo scelta. Era la decisione giusta”, ha detto, aggiungendo che la Russia avrebbe continuato “ritmicamente e con calma” l’invasione.

Mosca ha spostato la sua attenzione sull’Ucraina orientale, spostando le truppe dal nord dopo aver incontrato una feroce resistenza nelle settimane iniziali di quella che ha chiamato la sua “operazione speciale”.

L’ONU dice che 10 milioni di persone sono fuggite dalle loro case dall’inizio dell’invasione.

Il portavoce presidenziale russo Dmitry Peskov ha ammesso la scorsa settimana che il paese ha subito “significative perdite di truppe” dall’inizio del conflitto.

Né le stime della Russia né quelle dell’Ucraina sulle perdite russe possono essere verificate in modo indipendente – e gli analisti hanno messo in guardia che la Russia potrebbe minimizzare il suo tasso di perdite, mentre l’Ucraina potrebbe gonfiarlo per sollevare il morale. I leader occidentali credono che siano stati uccisi tra i 7.000 e i 15.000 soldati russi.

L’economia russa è stata anche scossa da un pacchetto di severe sanzioni imposte dalle nazioni occidentali.

Tuttavia, martedì, Putin ha detto che la Russia non ha “intenzione di essere isolata”, sostenendo che è “impossibile isolare severamente qualcuno nel mondo moderno – specialmente un paese così vasto come la Russia”.

Lukashenko ha anche respinto l’impatto delle sanzioni, chiedendo al signor Putin: “Perché mai ci stiamo preoccupando così tanto di queste sanzioni?

La scorsa settimana, il governo britannico ha previsto che la Russia si sta dirigendo verso la sua più profonda recessione dal crollo dell’Unione Sovietica.

In altri sviluppi:

– La Russia ha intensificato i suoi sforzi per prendere la città portuale meridionale assediata di Mariupol. Il sindaco della città ha detto che circa 21.000 persone sono morte lì, ma i funzionari hanno dovuto smettere di contare i corpi a causa dei combattimenti di strada.

– Inoltre nella città, i governi occidentali e le organizzazioni internazionali hanno espresso la preoccupazione circa i rapporti non confermati degli agenti chimici che sono usati dalla Russia là.

– Il servizio di sicurezza dell’Ucraina ha detto che ha arrestato il politico filorusso latitante Viktor Medvedchuk. Era stato agli arresti domiciliari per sospetto di tradimento, ma si è dato alla fuga giorni dopo che la Russia ha iniziato l’invasione.

– E il governatore di Luhansk nell’Ucraina orientale ha detto che circa 400 civili sono stati sepolti nella città di Severodonetsk vicino alla linea del fronte dall’inizio dell’invasione.

Pubblicato in: Demografia, Devoluzione socialismo, Putin, Russia

Ukraina. Emigrati sono già 660,000. Mr Putin ottiene due risultati clamorosi.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-02-03.

2022-03-01__ Fronte meridionale 001

«This is a summary of what was said by UNHCR spokesperson Shabia Mantoo – to whom quoted text may be attributed – at today’s press briefing at the Palais des Nations in Geneva»

«Around 660,000 refugees have now fled Ukraine to neighboring countries in the past six days»

«At this rate, the situation looks set to become Europe’s largest refugee crisis this century»

«All neighboring countries have to date commendably kept their borders open for refugees fleeing Ukraine. Most have fled to Poland, Hungary, Moldova, Romania, Slovakia»

«National authorities are assuming responsibility for the registration, reception, accommodation and protection of these refugees»

«Most arrivals are women and children from all parts of Ukraine»

«When refugees arrive, they are registered by the authorities»

* * * * * * *

La Russia ha preso il controllo dei porti ukraini, riducendo di fatto questa nazione ad uno stato continentale senza sbocchi al mare. Le conseguenze sono evidenti: l’Ukraina non è più in grado di esportare od importare alcunché.

Adesso i russi non hanno fretta alcuna di proseguire.

L’Unione europea si aspetterebbe fino a sette milioni di migranti, una marea umana di difficilissima collocazione e grande spesa.

Ma Mr Putin è ben più sottile.

«Most arrivals are women and children»

La quasi totalità degli emigrati sono donne in età fertile.

Questo fatto sarà foriero di grandi triboli nell’Unione Europea, ma nel contempo depaupererà l’Ukraina generando una crisi demografica senza precedenti ed irreversibile. Senza donne non si generano figli.

Mr Putin sta pianificando ed ottenendo la virtuale scomparsa degli ukraini.

* * * * * * *


UNHCR mobilizing to aid forcibly displaced in Ukraine and neighbouring countries

This is a summary of what was said by UNHCR spokesperson Shabia Mantoo – to whom quoted text may be attributed – at today’s press briefing at the Palais des Nations in Geneva.

Around 660,000 refugees have now fled Ukraine to neighboring countries in the past six days, according to the latest government data compiled by UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency.

At this rate, the situation looks set to become Europe’s largest refugee crisis this century, and UNHCR is mobilizing resources to respond as quickly and effectively as possible.

All neighboring countries have to date commendably kept their borders open for refugees fleeing Ukraine. Most have fled to Poland, Hungary, Moldova, Romania, Slovakia, while others have moved towards various other European countries. We are also aware that a sizeable number has moved to the Russian Federation. National authorities are assuming responsibility for the registration, reception, accommodation and protection of these refugees.

We have seen tremendous solidarity and hospitality from the countries receiving refugees, including from the authorities and local communities.

UNHCR urges governments to continue to maintain access to territory for all those fleeing: Ukrainians, and third country nationals living in Ukraine, who are now forced to escape the violence. We stress that there must be no discrimination against any person or group.

UNHCR has a long-standing presence in the region, including in Poland, Hungary, Moldova, Slovakia and Romania, and is coordinating the refugee response with other UN agencies and NGO partners, in support of national authorities. We are reinforcing our operations by urgently sending more resources, staff and relief items to deploy in the region while preparing to provide cash assistance via cards as needed. UNHCR child welfare and protection specialists are also ready to support national authorities.

                         In Poland:

UNHCR field staff report miles of queues at the border on the Ukrainian side. Those who crossed the border said that they had been waiting up to 60 hours. Most arrivals are women and children from all parts of Ukraine. Temperatures are freezing and many have reported spending days on the road waiting to cross. UNHCR is liaising with the authorities who have made available assistance. It is also working with partners inside Ukraine to mobilize teams to distribute this assistance. When refugees arrive, they are registered by the authorities.  UNHCR is aware of challenges faced by some third country nationals seeking to enter Poland and are in touch with the authorities to ensure that all those in need of international protection have access to procedures.  Refugees who have the means are finding their own accommodation, whereas others are being hosted with local communities who have opened their homes, or sheltered in reception centers.

UNHCR has been present at the Polish-Ukrainian border since 24 February to monitor arrival trends and is moving relief supplies from its global stocks to a newly rented warehouse at the border (in Rzeszow). Our office in Poland has been inundated with requests for information and support by refugees. UNHCR is providing new arrivals with information and legal services through a Polish legal partner.

                         In Hungary:

UNHCR is present at the border, assessing the number of refugees, and is ready to scale up its operational support to the Government. Arrivals are steady and waiting times vary. On arrival, following screening and registration, Ukrainians and other nationalities are guided to assembly points where they can apply for asylum and are granted temporary documentation.  Support is being provided by municipalities humanitarian actors, and members of the community.

                         In Romania:

There are queues of up to 20 hours to enter Romania. National authorities are managing accommodation and transport – new arrivals are being moved from the border to reception centres or other locations. Local communities are generously helping with transport and accommodation, while private companies are paying for hotels. Volunteers are providing interpretation services and other forms of practical support. UNHCR and partners have established a presence at all main border points – we are currently deployed at Siret and Isaccea.  We are part of the government-led task force that is coordinating needs and support. We are providing new arrivals with information on asylum procedures, and, through partners, are offering legal advice and psychological support. We have also established a 24/7 emergency hotline and online help pages for refugees in Ukrainian.

                         In Moldova:

It is still taking 24 hours to cover the 60-odd kms between Odessa and the border with Moldova. New arrivals are being accommodated in temporary reception centres and additional sites are being identified. Some have found their own accommodation or are being hosted by local communities. UNHCR is providing support to enhance reception capacity and is distributing essential relief items, including blankets, sleeping bags and hygiene items. An airlift from Dubai is due to arrive tomorrow with more supplies. UNHCR’s partners are present at various Moldovan border crossings, providing counselling to newly arrived refugees.

                         In Slovakia:

Since 24 February, UNHCR has regularly visited four out of five main border crossing points. Arrivals to Slovakia are lower but the government is maintaining an open and welcoming policy towards refugees, and has rapidly changed asylum laws to help fast-track asylum procedures. Financial and material support is also being provided by local communities, who are supporting refugees with food and hygiene items, offers of free transport, and accommodation. Local municipalities and villages are also creating temporary shelters for refugees.

                         In Ukraine

UNHCR is also ramping up its response in Ukraine to help displaced and conflict affected people. But the volatile situation, security concerns, lack of safe access for humanitarian workers and movement restrictions are posing major challenges for aid workers, including UNHCR staff. UNHCR continues to deliver when safe to do so, providing some assistance and engaging in protection activities like working with internally displaced community leaders to assess humanitarian needs and identify safe sites where IDPs can be received. UNHCR is also preparing to deliver assistance to internally displaced people in western Ukraine where humanitarian access is easier and is also strengthening nationwide hotlines to provide critical protection information to displaced civilians.

Pubblicato in: Putin, Russia

Kremlin. Discorso di Mr Putin alla Nazione.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-02-24. h 06:00.

2022-02-24__ Address by the President of the Russian Federation

«Your fathers, grandfathers and great-grandfathers did not fight the Nazi occupiers and did not defend our common Motherland to allow today’s neo-Nazis to seize power in Ukraine. You swore the oath of allegiance to the Ukrainian people and not to the junta, the people’s adversary which is plundering Ukraine and humiliating the Ukrainian people.»

«The current events have nothing to do with a desire to infringe on the interests of Ukraine and the Ukrainian people. They are connected with the defending Russia from those who have taken Ukraine hostage and are trying to use it against our country and our people»

* * * * * * *


Address by the President of the Russian Federation

February 24, 2022 06:00

The Kremlin, Moscow

* * * * * * *

President of Russia Vladimir Putin: Citizens of Russia, friends,

I consider it necessary today to speak again about the tragic events in Donbass and the key aspects of ensuring the security of Russia.

I will begin with what I said in my address on February 21, 2022. I spoke about our biggest concerns and worries, and about the fundamental threats which irresponsible Western politicians created for Russia consistently, rudely and unceremoniously from year to year. I am referring to the eastward expansion of NATO, which is moving its military infrastructure ever closer to the Russian border.

It is a fact that over the past 30 years we have been patiently trying to come to an agreement with the leading NATO countries regarding the principles of equal and indivisible security in Europe. In response to our proposals, we invariably faced either cynical deception and lies or attempts at pressure and blackmail, while the North Atlantic alliance continued to expand despite our protests and concerns. Its military machine is moving and, as I said, is approaching our very border.

Why is this happening? Where did this insolent manner of talking down from the height of their exceptionalism, infallibility and all-permissiveness come from? What is the explanation for this contemptuous and disdainful attitude to our interests and absolutely legitimate demands?

The answer is simple. Everything is clear and obvious. In the late 1980s, the Soviet Union grew weaker and subsequently broke apart. That experience should serve as a good lesson for us, because it has shown us that the paralysis of power and will is the first step towards complete degradation and oblivion. We lost confidence for only one moment, but it was enough to disrupt the balance of forces in the world.

As a result, the old treaties and agreements are no longer effective. Entreaties and requests do not help. Anything that does not suit the dominant state, the powers that be, is denounced as archaic, obsolete and useless. At the same time, everything it regards as useful is presented as the ultimate truth and forced on others regardless of the cost, abusively and by any means available. Those who refuse to comply are subjected to strong-arm tactics.

What I am saying now does not concerns only Russia, and Russia is not the only country that is worried about this. This has to do with the entire system of international relations, and sometimes even US allies. The collapse of the Soviet Union led to a redivision of the world, and the norms of international law that developed by that time – and the most important of them, the fundamental norms that were adopted following WWII and largely formalised its outcome – came in the way of those who declared themselves the winners of the Cold War.

Of course, practice, international relations and the rules regulating them had to take into account the changes that took place in the world and in the balance of forces. However, this should have been done professionally, smoothly, patiently, and with due regard and respect for the interests of all states and one’s own responsibility. Instead, we saw a state of euphoria created by the feeling of absolute superiority, a kind of modern absolutism, coupled with the low cultural standards and arrogance of those who formulated and pushed through decisions that suited only themselves. The situation took a different turn.

There are many examples of this. First a bloody military operation was waged against Belgrade, without the UN Security Council’s sanction but with combat aircraft and missiles used in the heart of Europe. The bombing of peaceful cities and vital infrastructure went on for several weeks. I have to recall these facts, because some Western colleagues prefer to forget them, and when we mentioned the event, they prefer to avoid speaking about international law, instead emphasising the circumstances which they interpret as they think necessary.

Then came the turn of Iraq, Libya and Syria. The illegal use of military power against Libya and the distortion of all the UN Security Council decisions on Libya ruined the state, created a huge seat of international terrorism, and pushed the country towards a humanitarian catastrophe, into the vortex of a civil war, which has continued there for years. The tragedy, which was created for hundreds of thousands and even millions of people not only in Libya but in the whole region, has led to a large-scale exodus from the Middle East and North Africa to Europe.

A similar fate was also prepared for Syria. The combat operations conducted by the Western coalition in that country without the Syrian government’s approval or UN Security Council’s sanction can only be defined as aggression and intervention.

But the example that stands apart from the above events is, of course, the invasion of Iraq without any legal grounds. They used the pretext of allegedly reliable information available in the United States about the presence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. To prove that allegation, the US Secretary of State held up a vial with white power, publicly, for the whole world to see, assuring the international community that it was a chemical warfare agent created in Iraq. It later turned out that all of that was a fake and a sham, and that Iraq did not have any chemical weapons. Incredible and shocking but true. We witnessed lies made at the highest state level and voiced from the high UN rostrum. As a result we see a tremendous loss in human life, damage, destruction, and a colossal upsurge of terrorism.

Overall, it appears that nearly everywhere, in many regions of the world where the United States brought its law and order, this created bloody, non-healing wounds and the curse of international terrorism and extremism. I have only mentioned the most glaring but far from only examples of disregard for international law.

This array includes promises not to expand NATO eastwards even by an inch. To reiterate: they have deceived us, or, to put it simply, they have played us. Sure, one often hears that politics is a dirty business. It could be, but it shouldn’t be as dirty as it is now, not to such an extent. This type of con-artist behaviour is contrary not only to the principles of international relations but also and above all to the generally accepted norms of morality and ethics. Where is justice and truth here? Just lies and hypocrisy all around.

Incidentally, US politicians, political scientists and journalists write and say that a veritable “empire of lies” has been created inside the United States in recent years. It is hard to disagree with this – it is really so. But one should not be modest about it: the United States is still a great country and a system-forming power. All its satellites not only humbly and obediently say yes to and parrot it at the slightest pretext but also imitate its behaviour and enthusiastically accept the rules it is offering them. Therefore, one can say with good reason and confidence that the whole so-called Western bloc formed by the United States in its own image and likeness is, in its entirety, the very same “empire of lies.”

As for our country, after the disintegration of the USSR, given the entire unprecedented openness of the new, modern Russia, its readiness to work honestly with the United States and other Western partners, and its practically unilateral disarmament, they immediately tried to put the final squeeze on us, finish us off, and utterly destroy us. This is how it was in the 1990s and the early 2000s, when the so-called collective West was actively supporting separatism and gangs of mercenaries in southern Russia. What victims, what losses we had to sustain and what trials we had to go through at that time before we broke the back of international terrorism in the Caucasus! We remember this and will never forget.

Properly speaking, the attempts to use us in their own interests never ceased until quite recently: they sought to destroy our traditional values and force on us their false values that would erode us, our people from within, the attitudes they have been aggressively imposing on their countries, attitudes that are directly leading to degradation and degeneration, because they are contrary to human nature. This is not going to happen. No one has ever succeeded in doing this, nor will they succeed now.

Despite all that, in December 2021, we made yet another attempt to reach agreement with the United States and its allies on the principles of European security and NATO’s non-expansion. Our efforts were in vain. The United States has not changed its position. It does not believe it necessary to agree with Russia on a matter that is critical for us. The United States is pursuing its own objectives, while neglecting our interests.

Of course, this situation begs a question: what next, what are we to expect? If history is any guide, we know that in 1940 and early 1941 the Soviet Union went to great lengths to prevent war or at least delay its outbreak. To this end, the USSR sought not to provoke the potential aggressor until the very end by refraining or postponing the most urgent and obvious preparations it had to make to defend itself from an imminent attack. When it finally acted, it was too late.

As a result, the country was not prepared to counter the invasion by Nazi Germany, which attacked our Motherland on June 22, 1941, without declaring war. The country stopped the enemy and went on to defeat it, but this came at a tremendous cost. The attempt to appease the aggressor ahead of the Great Patriotic War proved to be a mistake which came at a high cost for our people. In the first months after the hostilities broke out, we lost vast territories of strategic importance, as well as millions of lives. We will not make this mistake the second time. We have no right to do so.

Those who aspire to global dominance have publicly designated Russia as their enemy. They did so with impunity. Make no mistake, they had no reason to act this way. It is true that they have considerable financial, scientific, technological, and military capabilities. We are aware of this and have an objective view of the economic threats we have been hearing, just as our ability to counter this brash and never-ending blackmail. Let me reiterate that we have no illusions in this regard and are extremely realistic in our assessments.

As for military affairs, even after the dissolution of the USSR and losing a considerable part of its capabilities, today’s Russia remains one of the most powerful nuclear states. Moreover, it has a certain advantage in several cutting-edge weapons. In this context, there should be no doubt for anyone that any potential aggressor will face defeat and ominous consequences should it directly attack our country.

At the same time, technology, including in the defence sector, is changing rapidly. One day there is one leader, and tomorrow another, but a military presence in territories bordering on Russia, if we permit it to go ahead, will stay for decades to come or maybe forever, creating an ever mounting and totally unacceptable threat for Russia.

Even now, with NATO’s eastward expansion the situation for Russia has been becoming worse and more dangerous by the year. Moreover, these past days NATO leadership has been blunt in its statements that they need to accelerate and step up efforts to bring the alliance’s infrastructure closer to Russia’s borders. In other words, they have been toughening their position. We cannot stay idle and passively observe these developments. This would be an absolutely irresponsible thing to do for us.

Any further expansion of the North Atlantic alliance’s infrastructure or the ongoing efforts to gain a military foothold of the Ukrainian territory are unacceptable for us. Of course, the question is not about NATO itself. It merely serves as a tool of US foreign policy. The problem is that in territories adjacent to Russia, which I have to note is our historical land, a hostile “anti-Russia” is taking shape. Fully controlled from the outside, it is doing everything to attract NATO armed forces and obtain cutting-edge weapons.

For the United States and its allies, it is a policy of containing Russia, with obvious geopolitical dividends. For our country, it is a matter of life and death, a matter of our historical future as a nation. This is not an exaggeration; this is a fact. It is not only a very real threat to our interests but to the very existence of our state and to its sovereignty. It is the red line which we have spoken about on numerous occasions. They have crossed it.

This brings me to the situation in Donbass. We can see that the forces that staged the coup in Ukraine in 2014 have seized power, are keeping it with the help of ornamental election procedures and have abandoned the path of a peaceful conflict settlement. For eight years, for eight endless years we have been doing everything possible to settle the situation by peaceful political means. Everything was in vain.

As I said in my previous address, you cannot look without compassion at what is happening there. It became impossible to tolerate it. We had to stop that atrocity, that genocide of the millions of people who live there and who pinned their hopes on Russia, on all of us. It is their aspirations, the feelings and pain of these people that were the main motivating force behind our decision to recognise the independence of the Donbass people’s republics.

I would like to additionally emphasise the following. Focused on their own goals, the leading NATO countries are supporting the far-right nationalists and neo-Nazis in Ukraine, those who will never forgive the people of Crimea and Sevastopol for freely making a choice to reunite with Russia.

They will undoubtedly try to bring war to Crimea just as they have done in Donbass, to kill innocent people just as members of the punitive units of Ukrainian nationalists and Hitler’s accomplices did during the Great Patriotic War. They have also openly laid claim to several other Russian regions.

If we look at the sequence of events and the incoming reports, the showdown between Russia and these forces cannot be avoided. It is only a matter of time. They are getting ready and waiting for the right moment. Moreover, they went as far as aspire to acquire nuclear weapons. We will not let this happen.

I have already said that Russia accepted the new geopolitical reality after the dissolution of the USSR. We have been treating all new post-Soviet states with respect and will continue to act this way. We respect and will respect their sovereignty, as proven by the assistance we provided to Kazakhstan when it faced tragic events and a challenge in terms of its statehood and integrity. However, Russia cannot feel safe, develop, and exist while facing a permanent threat from the territory of today’s Ukraine.

Let me remind you that in 2000–2005 we used our military to push back against terrorists in the Caucasus and stood up for the integrity of our state. We preserved Russia. In 2014, we supported the people of Crimea and Sevastopol. In 2015, we used our Armed Forces to create a reliable shield that prevented terrorists from Syria from penetrating Russia. This was a matter of defending ourselves. We had no other choice.

The same is happening today. They did not leave us any other option for defending Russia and our people, other than the one we are forced to use today. In these circumstances, we have to take bold and immediate action. The people’s republics of Donbass have asked Russia for help.

In this context, in accordance with Article 51 (Chapter VII) of the UN Charter, with permission of Russia’s Federation Council, and in execution of the treaties of friendship and mutual assistance with the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Lugansk People’s Republic, ratified by the Federal Assembly on February 22, I made a decision to carry out a special military operation.

The purpose of this operation is to protect people who, for eight years now, have been facing humiliation and genocide perpetrated by the Kiev regime. To this end, we will seek to demilitarise and denazify Ukraine, as well as bring to trial those who perpetrated numerous bloody crimes against civilians, including against citizens of the Russian Federation.

It is not our plan to occupy the Ukrainian territory. We do not intend to impose anything on anyone by force. At the same time, we have been hearing an increasing number of statements coming from the West that there is no need any more to abide by the documents setting forth the outcomes of World War II, as signed by the totalitarian Soviet regime. How can we respond to that?

The outcomes of World War II and the sacrifices our people had to make to defeat Nazism are sacred. This does not contradict the high values of human rights and freedoms in the reality that emerged over the post-war decades. This does not mean that nations cannot enjoy the right to self-determination, which is enshrined in Article 1 of the UN Charter.

Let me remind you that the people living in territories which are part of today’s Ukraine were not asked how they want to build their lives when the USSR was created or after World War II. Freedom guides our policy, the freedom to choose independently our future and the future of our children. We believe that all the peoples living in today’s Ukraine, anyone who want to do this, must be able to enjoy this right to make a free choice.

In this context I would like to address the citizens of Ukraine. In 2014, Russia was obliged to protect the people of Crimea and Sevastopol from those who you yourself call “nats.” The people of Crimea and Sevastopol made their choice in favour of being with their historical homeland, Russia, and we supported their choice. As I said, we could not act otherwise.

The current events have nothing to do with a desire to infringe on the interests of Ukraine and the Ukrainian people. They are connected with the defending Russia from those who have taken Ukraine hostage and are trying to use it against our country and our people.

I reiterate: we are acting to defend ourselves from the threats created for us and from a worse peril than what is happening now. I am asking you, however hard this may be, to understand this and to work together with us so as to turn this tragic page as soon as possible and to move forward together, without allowing anyone to interfere in our affairs and our relations but developing them independently, so as to create favourable conditions for overcoming all these problems and to strengthen us from within as a single whole, despite the existence of state borders. I believe in this, in our common future.

I would also like to address the military personnel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Comrade officers,

Your fathers, grandfathers and great-grandfathers did not fight the Nazi occupiers and did not defend our common Motherland to allow today’s neo-Nazis to seize power in Ukraine. You swore the oath of allegiance to the Ukrainian people and not to the junta, the people’s adversary which is plundering Ukraine and humiliating the Ukrainian people.

I urge you to refuse to carry out their criminal orders. I urge you to immediately lay down arms and go home. I will explain what this means: the military personnel of the Ukrainian army who do this will be able to freely leave the zone of hostilities and return to their families.

I want to emphasise again that all responsibility for the possible bloodshed will lie fully and wholly with the ruling Ukrainian regime.

Pubblicato in: Putin, Russia

Address by the President of the Russian Federation.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-02-21.

Putin Vladimir 012

Oggi 21 febbraio alle ore 22:35 di Mosca.

* * * * * * *


Kremlin. Address by the President of the Russian Federation

President of Russia Vladimir Putin: Citizens of Russia, friends,

My address concerns the events in Ukraine and why this is so important for us, for Russia. Of course, my message is also addressed to our compatriots in Ukraine.

The matter is very serious and needs to be discussed in depth.

The situation in Donbass has reached a critical, acute stage. I am speaking to you directly today not only to explain what is happening but also to inform you of the decisions being made as well as potential further steps.

I would like to emphasise again that Ukraine is not just a neighbouring country for us. It is an inalienable part of our own history, culture and spiritual space. These are our comrades, those dearest to us – not only colleagues, friends and people who once served together, but also relatives, people bound by blood, by family ties.

Since time immemorial, the people living in the south-west of what has historically been Russian land have called themselves Russians and Orthodox Christians. This was the case before the 17th century, when a portion of this territory rejoined the Russian state, and after.

It seems to us that, generally speaking, we all know these facts, that this is common knowledge. Still, it is necessary to say at least a few words about the history of this issue in order to understand what is happening today, to explain the motives behind Russia’s actions and what we aim to achieve.

So, I will start with the fact that modern Ukraine was entirely created by Russia or, to be more precise, by Bolshevik, Communist Russia. This process started practically right after the 1917 revolution, and Lenin and his associates did it in a way that was extremely harsh on Russia – by separating, severing what is historically Russian land. Nobody asked the millions of people living there what they thought.

Then, both before and after the Great Patriotic War, Stalin incorporated in the USSR and transferred to Ukraine some lands that previously belonged to Poland, Romania and Hungary. In the process, he gave Poland part of what was traditionally German land as compensation, and in 1954, Khrushchev took Crimea away from Russia for some reason and also gave it to Ukraine. In effect, this is how the territory of modern Ukraine was formed.

But now I would like to focus attention on the initial period of the USSR’s formation. I believe this is extremely important for us. I will have to approach it from a distance, so to speak.

I will remind you that after the 1917 October Revolution and the subsequent Civil War, the Bolsheviks set about creating a new statehood. They had rather serious disagreements among themselves on this point. In 1922, Stalin occupied the positions of both the General Secretary of the Russian Communist Party (Bolsheviks) and the People’s Commissar for Ethnic Affairs. He suggested building the country on the principles of autonomisation that is, giving the republics – the future administrative and territorial entities – broad powers upon joining a unified state.

Lenin criticised this plan and suggested making concessions to the nationalists, whom he called “independents” at that time. Lenin’s ideas of what amounted in essence to a confederative state arrangement and a slogan about the right of nations to self-determination, up to secession, were laid in the foundation of Soviet statehood. Initially they were confirmed in the Declaration on the Formation of the USSR in 1922, and later on, after Lenin’s death, were enshrined in the 1924 Soviet Constitution.

This immediately raises many questions. The first is really the main one: why was it necessary to appease the nationalists, to satisfy the ceaselessly growing nationalist ambitions on the outskirts of the former empire? What was the point of transferring to the newly, often arbitrarily formed administrative units – the union republics – vast territories that had nothing to do with them? Let me repeat that these territories were transferred along with the population of what was historically Russia.

Moreover, these administrative units were de facto given the status and form of national state entities. That raises another question: why was it necessary to make such generous gifts, beyond the wildest dreams of the most zealous nationalists and, on top of all that, give the republics the right to secede from the unified state without any conditions?

Pubblicato in: Putin, Russia

Putin riconosce le repubbliche del Donetsk e del Lugansk. Donbass.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-02-21.

Kremlino 002

Oggi 21 febbraio alle ore 22:40 di Mosca.

* * * * * * *


Kremlin. Signing of documents recognising Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics

The President of Russia signed the Executive Order On the Recognition of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Executive Order On the Recognition of the Lugansk People’s Republic.

Vladimir Putin and Head of the DPR Denis Pushilin signed a Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance between the Russian Federation and the Donetsk People’s Republic.

The President of Russia and Head of the LPR Leonid Pasechnik signed a Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance between the Russian Federation and the Lugansk People’s Republic.

Following the signing ceremony, Vladimir Putin had a conversation with Denis Pushilin and Leonid Pasechnik.

Pubblicato in: Putin, Russia

Kremlin. Relazioni di Mr Putin e Mr Lavrov al Consiglio di Sicurezza.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-02-21.

Kremlino 002

Riportiamo i testi ufficiali rilasciati dal Kremlin, facendo seguire una Traduzione in italiano.

* * * * * * *


Kremlin. Security Council meeting

                         President of Russia Vladimir Putin: Good afternoon, colleagues.

We are meeting today to discuss the current developments in Donbass.

I will briefly remind you how it all started and how the situation has developed even though you know this very well. But we need general background to help us make appropriate decisions.

So, after the 2014 coup in Ukraine, part of the population did not accept the outcome. Let me remind you that this was an anti-constitutional, blood-shedding coup that killed many innocent people. It was truly an armed coup. Nobody can argue that.

Some of the country’s citizens did not accept the coup. They were residents of Crimea and the people who currently live in Donbass.

Those people declared that they were establishing two independent republics, the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Lugansk People’s Republic. This was the point when the confrontation started between the Kiev officials and the people living on that territory.

In this context, I would like to point out that Russia initially did everything it could to make sure these disagreements could be resolved by peaceful means. However, the Kiev officials have conducted two punitive operations on those territories and, apparently, we are witnessing a third escalation.

All these years – I want to stress this – all these years, the people living on those territories have been literally tortured by constant shelling and blockades. As you know, the people living on those territories, close to the front line, so to speak, were in fact forced to seek shelter in their basements – where they now live with their children.

A peace plan was drafted during the negotiating process called the Minsk Package of Measures because, as you recall, we met in the city of Minsk. But subsequent developments show that the Kiev authorities are not planning to implement it, and they have publicly said so many times at the top state level and at the level of Foreign Minister and Security Council Secretary. Overall, everyone understands that they are not planning to do anything with regard to this Minsk Package of Measures.

Nevertheless, Russia has exerted efforts and still continues to make efforts to resolve all the complicated aspects and tragic developments by peaceful means, but we have what we have.

Our goal, the goal of today’s meeting is to listen to our colleagues and to outline future steps in this direction, considering the appeals by the leaders of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Lugansk People’s Republic on recognising their sovereignty, as well as a resolution by the State Duma of the Russian Federation on the same subject. The latter document urges the President to recognise the independence and sovereignty of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Lugansk People’s Republic.

At the same time, I would like to note that these different matters are, nevertheless, closely linked with matters of maintaining international security, on the European continent in particular, because the use of Ukraine as a tool for confronting this country, Russia, of course, presents a major and serious threat to us.

This is why we have intensified our work with our main partners in Washington and NATO over the past few months and in late 2021, so as to reach an eventual agreement on these security measures and to ensure the country’s calm and successful development under peaceful conditions. We see this as our number one objective and a top priority; instead of confrontation, we need to maintain security and ensure conditions for our development.

But we must, of course, understand the reality we live in. And, as I have said many times before, if Russia faces the threat of Ukraine being accepted into the North Atlantic Alliance, NATO, the threat against our country will increase because of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty that clearly states that all countries in the alliance must fight on the side of their co-member in the event of an aggression against it. But since nobody recognises the will expressed by the people of Crimea and Sevastopol, and Ukraine continues to insist that it is Ukrainian territory, there is a real threat that they will try to take back the territory they believe is theirs using military force. And they do say this in their documents, obviously. Then the entire North Atlantic Alliance will have to get involved.

As you know, we have been told that some NATO countries are against Ukraine becoming a member. However, despite their objections, in 2008, they signed a memorandum in Bucharest that opened the doors for Ukraine and Georgia to join NATO. I have not received an answer to my question as to why they did that. But if they took one step under pressure from the United States, who can guarantee that they will not take another step under pressure? There is no guarantee.

There are no guarantees whatsoever because the United States is known to easily discard any agreements and documents it signs. Still, at least something must be put on paper and formulated as an international legal act. At this point, we cannot even agree on this one thing.

Therefore, I would like to suggest that we proceed as follows: first, I will give the floor to Mr Lavrov who is directly involved in the attempts to reach an agreement with Washington and Brussels, and with NATO, on security guarantees. Then I would like Mr Kozak to report on his findings concerning the talks on the implementation of the Minsk agreements. Then each of you will be able to speak. But at the end of the day, we must decide what we will do next and how we should proceed in view of the current situation and our assessment of these developments.

Mr Lavrov, please.

                         Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov: Mr President, colleagues,

As I reported to the President a week ago, we prepared our assessment of the proposals on the security guarantees that Russia submitted for consideration by the United States and NATO last December.

We received their response in late January. The assessment of this response shows that our Western colleagues are not prepared to take up our major proposals, primarily those on NATO’s eastward non-expansion. This demand was rejected with reference to the bloc’s so-called open-door policy and the freedom of each state to choose its own way of ensuring security. Neither the United States, not the North Atlantic Alliance proposed an alternative to this key provision.

The United States is doing everything it can to avoid the principle of indivisibility of security that we consider of fundamental importance and to which we have made many references. Deriving from it the only element that suits them – the freedom to choose alliances – they completely ignore everything else, including the key condition that reads that nobody – either in choosing alliances or regardless of them – is allowed to enhance their security at the expense of the security of others.

In this context, I sent our Western European colleagues that are part of NATO, EU members, plus Switzerland, detailed letters with our legal analysis of the commitments that the OSCE assumed at the top level in 1999 and 2010, as well as within the framework of Russia-NATO relations, including the 1997 Founding Act and the Rome Declaration, that the participants in the Russia-NATO meeting in Pratica di Mare approved at the top level in 2002.

Our second priority concerns the time we established relations with NATO, in 1997. Considering that the 1997 documents declared that Russia and NATO were no longer opponents and were supposed, in part, to develop a strategic partnership, we suggested returning to the 1997 configuration of NATO forces on the eastern flank. This argument was rejected, like the first one. Indicatively, in their response, some NATO countries immediately urged us to stop “the occupation of Crimea” and “withdraw our troops from the territories of Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine.”

In general, these documents expressed support for the Minsk Package of Measures, but this support was absolutely “sterile.” It did not evince any readiness to compel Kiev to implement the provisions of this most important document.

* * * * * * *


Cremlino. Riunione del Consiglio di Sicurezza

                         Il presidente della Russia Vladimir Putin: Buon pomeriggio, colleghi.

Ci riuniamo oggi per discutere gli attuali sviluppi nel Donbass.

Vi ricorderò brevemente come è iniziato tutto e come si è sviluppata la situazione, anche se lo sapete molto bene. Ma abbiamo bisogno di un background generale per aiutarci a prendere decisioni appropriate.

Dunque, dopo il colpo di stato del 2014 in Ucraina, una parte della popolazione non ha accettato il risultato. Permettetemi di ricordarvi che si è trattato di un colpo di stato anticostituzionale e sanguinario che ha ucciso molte persone innocenti. È stato veramente un colpo di stato armato. Nessuno lo può contestare.

Alcuni cittadini del paese non hanno accettato il colpo di stato. Erano i residenti della Crimea e le persone che attualmente vivono nel Donbass.

Queste persone hanno dichiarato che stavano creando due repubbliche indipendenti, la Repubblica Popolare di Donetsk e la Repubblica Popolare di Lugansk. Questo è stato il punto in cui è iniziato il confronto tra i funzionari di Kiev e la gente che vive in quel territorio.

In questo contesto, vorrei sottolineare che la Russia inizialmente ha fatto tutto il possibile per assicurarsi che questi disaccordi potessero essere risolti con mezzi pacifici. Tuttavia, i funzionari di Kiev hanno condotto due operazioni punitive su quei territori e, a quanto pare, stiamo assistendo a una terza escalation.

Per tutti questi anni – voglio sottolinearlo – per tutti questi anni, le persone che vivono in quei territori sono state letteralmente torturate da continui bombardamenti e blocchi. Come sapete, gli abitanti di quei territori, vicini alla linea del fronte, per così dire, sono stati infatti costretti a cercare riparo nei loro scantinati – dove ora vivono con i loro bambini.

Durante il processo negoziale è stato redatto un piano di pace chiamato “pacchetto di misure di Minsk” perché, come ricordate, ci siamo incontrati nella città di Minsk. Ma gli sviluppi successivi mostrano che le autorità di Kiev non hanno intenzione di attuarlo, e lo hanno detto pubblicamente molte volte ai vertici dello stato e a livello di ministro degli esteri e di segretario del consiglio di sicurezza. In generale, tutti capiscono che non hanno intenzione di fare nulla riguardo a questo pacchetto di misure di Minsk.

Ciononostante, la Russia ha esercitato sforzi e continua a fare sforzi per risolvere tutti gli aspetti complicati e i tragici sviluppi con mezzi pacifici, ma abbiamo quello che abbiamo.

Il nostro obiettivo, l’obiettivo della riunione di oggi è ascoltare i nostri colleghi e delineare i passi futuri in questa direzione, considerando gli appelli dei leader della Repubblica Popolare di Donetsk e della Repubblica Popolare di Lugansk sul riconoscimento della loro sovranità, così come una risoluzione della Duma di Stato della Federazione Russa sullo stesso argomento. Quest’ultimo documento esorta il presidente a riconoscere l’indipendenza e la sovranità della Repubblica Popolare di Donetsk e della Repubblica Popolare di Lugansk.

Allo stesso tempo, vorrei notare che queste diverse questioni sono, tuttavia, strettamente legate a questioni di mantenimento della sicurezza internazionale, sul continente europeo in particolare, perché l’uso dell’Ucraina come strumento di confronto con questo paese, la Russia, naturalmente, rappresenta una grande e seria minaccia per noi.

Questo è il motivo per cui abbiamo intensificato il nostro lavoro con i nostri principali partner di Washington e della NATO negli ultimi mesi e alla fine del 2021, in modo da raggiungere un accordo finale su queste misure di sicurezza e garantire uno sviluppo tranquillo e di successo del paese in condizioni pacifiche. Per noi questo è l’obiettivo numero uno e una priorità assoluta; invece del confronto, dobbiamo mantenere la sicurezza e garantire le condizioni per il nostro sviluppo.

Ma dobbiamo, naturalmente, capire la realtà in cui viviamo. E, come ho già detto molte volte, se la Russia affronta la minaccia dell’accettazione dell’Ucraina nell’Alleanza Nord Atlantica, la NATO, la minaccia contro il nostro paese aumenterà a causa dell’articolo 5 del Trattato Nord Atlantico che stabilisce chiaramente che tutti i paesi dell’alleanza devono combattere al fianco del loro co-membro in caso di aggressione contro di esso. Ma poiché nessuno riconosce la volontà espressa dal popolo di Crimea e Sebastopoli, e l’Ucraina continua a insistere che si tratta di territorio ucraino, c’è una minaccia reale che cercheranno di riprendersi il territorio che credono sia loro usando la forza militare. E lo dicono nei loro documenti, ovviamente. Allora l’intera Alleanza Nord Atlantica dovrà essere coinvolta.

Come sapete, ci è stato detto che alcuni paesi della NATO sono contrari all’adesione dell’Ucraina. Tuttavia, nonostante le loro obiezioni, nel 2008, hanno firmato un memorandum a Bucarest che ha aperto le porte all’Ucraina e alla Georgia per entrare nella NATO. Non ho ricevuto una risposta alla mia domanda sul perché l’abbiano fatto. Ma se hanno fatto un passo sotto la pressione degli Stati Uniti, chi può garantire che non ne faranno un altro sotto pressione? Non c’è nessuna garanzia.

Non ci sono garanzie di sorta perché gli Stati Uniti sono noti per scartare facilmente qualsiasi accordo e documento che firmano. Tuttavia, almeno qualcosa deve essere messo su carta e formulato come un atto giuridico internazionale. A questo punto, non possiamo nemmeno essere d’accordo su questa cosa.

Pertanto, vorrei suggerire di procedere come segue: prima, darò la parola al signor Lavrov che è direttamente coinvolto nei tentativi di raggiungere un accordo con Washington e Bruxelles, e con la NATO, sulle garanzie di sicurezza. Poi vorrei che il signor Kozak riferisse le sue conclusioni sui colloqui sull’attuazione degli accordi di Minsk. Poi ognuno di voi potrà parlare. Ma alla fine della giornata, dobbiamo decidere cosa fare dopo e come procedere alla luce della situazione attuale e della nostra valutazione di questi sviluppi.

Signor Lavrov, prego.

                         Ministro degli Esteri Sergei Lavrov: Signor Presidente, colleghi,

Come ho riferito al Presidente una settimana fa, abbiamo preparato la nostra valutazione delle proposte sulle garanzie di sicurezza che la Russia ha sottoposto all’esame degli Stati Uniti e della NATO lo scorso dicembre.

Abbiamo ricevuto la loro risposta alla fine di gennaio. La valutazione di questa risposta mostra che i nostri colleghi occidentali non sono disposti ad accogliere le nostre principali proposte, soprattutto quelle sulla non espansione della NATO verso est. Questa richiesta è stata respinta con riferimento alla cosiddetta politica delle porte aperte del blocco e alla libertà di ogni stato di scegliere il proprio modo di garantire la sicurezza. Né gli Stati Uniti, né l’Alleanza Nord Atlantica hanno proposto un’alternativa a questa disposizione chiave.

Gli Stati Uniti stanno facendo tutto il possibile per evitare il principio di indivisibilità della sicurezza che consideriamo di fondamentale importanza e al quale abbiamo fatto molti riferimenti. Derivando da esso l’unico elemento che gli conviene – la libertà di scegliere le alleanze – ignorano completamente tutto il resto, compresa la condizione chiave che recita che a nessuno – né nella scelta delle alleanze né a prescindere da esse – è permesso migliorare la propria sicurezza a spese della sicurezza degli altri.

In questo contesto, ho inviato ai nostri colleghi dell’Europa occidentale che fanno parte della NATO, membri dell’UE, più la Svizzera, lettere dettagliate con la nostra analisi giuridica degli impegni che l’OSCE ha assunto al massimo livello nel 1999 e nel 2010, così come nel quadro delle relazioni Russia-NATO, compreso l’Atto fondatore del 1997 e la Dichiarazione di Roma, che i partecipanti alla riunione Russia-NATO a Pratica di Mare hanno approvato al massimo livello nel 2002.

La nostra seconda priorità riguarda il momento in cui abbiamo stabilito le relazioni con la NATO, nel 1997. Considerando che i documenti del 1997 dichiaravano che la Russia e la NATO non erano più avversari e dovevano, in parte, sviluppare un partenariato strategico, abbiamo proposto di tornare alla configurazione del 1997 delle forze NATO sul fianco orientale. Questo argomento è stato respinto, come il primo. Indicativamente, nella loro risposta, alcuni paesi della NATO ci hanno immediatamente esortato a fermare “l’occupazione della Crimea” e a “ritirare le nostre truppe dai territori di Georgia, Moldova e Ucraina”.

In generale, questi documenti esprimevano il sostegno al pacchetto di misure di Minsk, ma questo sostegno era assolutamente “sterile”. Non si evinceva alcuna disponibilità a costringere Kiev ad attuare le disposizioni di questo importantissimo documento.

Pubblicato in: Putin, Russia

Putin. Una scacchiera strategica per destabilizzare l’occidente.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-11-26.

Putin Vladimir 012

“President Putin has come to the conclusion that normal diplomatic channels, means, forms and methods are not working,”

«you only understand the language of force»

* * * * * * *


«In the stretch of Europe from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, where Moscow and the West have competed for influence for decades, the threat of a new military conflict is growing»

«An ominous buildup of Russian troops near Ukraine. A migration crisis in Belarus that Western leaders call a “hybrid war” by a Kremlin client state. Escalating fears over natural gas that have Europe dreading a cold winter»

«President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has, increasingly, put his cards on the table: He is willing to take ever-greater risks to force the West to listen to Russian demands»

«Mr. Putin is playing a role in multiple destabilizing crises at once»

«In the stretch of Europe from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, where Moscow and the West have competed for influence for decades, the threat of a new military conflict is growing»

«He said that Western countries were finally recognizing that Russia was serious about defending its “red lines” that relate to the presence of NATO forces near its borders»

«Our recent warnings have indeed been heard and are having a certain effect»

«Tensions have been exacerbated by the migration crisis orchestrated on the European Union’s borders by Belarus, a close Russian ally, and by an energy crunch that Russia, which supplies much of Western Europe’s natural gas, has used to try to pressure the bloc to approve a new pipeline that would increase the Kremlin’s leverage in the region»

«Belarusian security officers carrying Kalashnikov rifles kept guard around a huge warehouse housing around 2,000 migrants»

«In Moscow, Mr. Putin appears to feel increasingly confident»

«He maintains an approval rating above 60 percent in independent polls»

«Mr. Putin also commands a military developing ever-more-modern weaponry, such as sophisticated hypersonic missiles and nuclear-capable torpedoes»

«But it is Ukraine that is primarily responsible for Russia’s current “red lines.”»

«Kremlin increasingly views Ukraine as a Western aircraft carrier parked at Russia’s southwestern border»

«In the Russian president’s evolving view of the West, he went on, you only understand the language of force»

«I welcome signs of readiness on the other side not just to produce and promote its own points and views…. but also to listen to what we are telling them»

«What does Mr. Putin want? …. To restore the Soviet Union»

«President Putin has come to the conclusion that normal diplomatic channels, means, forms and methods are not working»

* * * * * * *

Mr Putin è davvero molto abile a saper giocare in modo coordinato su molti differenti scacchieri, così da destabilizzare l’occidente liberal.

Purtroppo la sua controparte attuale è Joe Biden, persona del tutto inaffidabile.

Capito questo semplice concetto, risulterebbe essere facile comprenderne ciò che ne deriva.

«you only understand the language of force»

* * * * * * *


On Putin’s Strategic Chessboard, a Series of Destabilizing Moves.

In the stretch of Europe from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, where Moscow and the West have competed for influence for decades, the threat of a new military conflict is growing.

* * *

Vilnius, Lithuania — An ominous buildup of Russian troops near Ukraine. A migration crisis in Belarus that Western leaders call a “hybrid war” by a Kremlin client state. Escalating fears over natural gas that have Europe dreading a cold winter.

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has, increasingly, put his cards on the table: He is willing to take ever-greater risks to force the West to listen to Russian demands. And America and its allies are sensing an unusually volatile moment, one in which Mr. Putin is playing a role in multiple destabilizing crises at once.

In the stretch of Europe from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, where Moscow and the West have competed for influence for decades, the threat of a new military conflict is growing.

This month, Russian long-range nuclear bombers flew repeated patrols near the European Union’s border with Poland, and an unexplained and stealthy military buildup in southwestern Russia has American and European intelligence officials warning that the Kremlin could be laying the groundwork for a new invasion of Ukraine.

During a speech Thursday to Russian diplomats, Mr. Putin signaled more openly than before that he was using his military to coerce the West to respect Russia’s interests in the region. He said that Western countries were finally recognizing that Russia was serious about defending its “red lines” that relate to the presence of NATO forces near its borders.

“Our recent warnings have indeed been heard and are having a certain effect: tensions have risen there, after all,” Mr. Putin said. “It is important for them to remain in this state for as long as possible, so that it does not occur to them to stage some kind of conflict on our western frontiers that we do not need.”

Tensions have been exacerbated by the migration crisis orchestrated on the European Union’s borders by Belarus, a close Russian ally, and by an energy crunch that Russia, which supplies much of Western Europe’s natural gas, has used to try to pressure the bloc to approve a new pipeline that would increase the Kremlin’s leverage in the region.

“It’s a regional security situation which is very worrying at the moment,” said Asta Skaisgiryte, the foreign policy adviser to the president of Lithuania, an E.U. and NATO member that has faced a wave of migration from neighboring Belarus in recent months.

In Belarus on Friday, tensions that earlier this week triggered violent clashes at the main border crossing into Poland continued to ease. Belarusian security officers carrying Kalashnikov rifles kept guard around a huge warehouse housing around 2,000 migrants.

Many of the migrants voiced alarm and frustration that, instead of advancing into Poland, they had now moved backward, suggesting that President Aleksandr G. Lukashenko of Belarus could have trouble keeping anger from boiling over if migrants lose all hope of reaching Europe.

In Moscow, Mr. Putin appears to feel increasingly confident. He repelled this year’s challenge to his rule from the imprisoned opposition leader Aleksei A. Navalny, while other opposition figures continue to be arrested or forced into exile. He maintains an approval rating above 60 percent in independent polls, despite Russia suffering one of the worst Covid-19 death tolls in the world. His United Russia party claimed a sizable victory in September’s parliamentary elections, prompting few protests despite evidence of fraud.

Mr. Putin also commands a military developing ever-more-modern weaponry, such as sophisticated hypersonic missiles and nuclear-capable torpedoes. And Russia is building a tighter partnership with China, underscored on Friday when the two countries conducted a joint strategic bomber patrol over the Pacific.

At the same time, Russian analysts say, the Kremlin is growing increasingly concerned about the possibility that the West will further expand its military footprint in post-Soviet Eastern Europe. Lithuania and the other two Baltic states that were once part of the Soviet Union, Latvia and Estonia, are already NATO members hosting Western troops. In Belarus, Russia’s closest ally, the West has given full-throated support to the exiled opposition to Mr. Lukashenko.

But it is Ukraine that is primarily responsible for Russia’s current “red lines.” The Kremlin said in September that the “broadening of NATO infrastructure on Ukrainian territory” — where the West already provides training and weaponry to Ukrainian forces — would cross one of those lines. And in recent weeks, military activity by the United States and its allies in the Black Sea region near Ukraine, where President Volodymyr Zelensky has struck an increasingly anti-Russian tone, has infuriated Russian officials.

Dmitri Trenin, the head of the Carnegie Moscow Center think tank, said that to Russia, the current moment could well seem like a role reversal of the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, when President John F. Kennedy was prepared to risk nuclear war to prevent the Soviet Union from basing missiles off the Florida coast. Scholars at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington wrote this month that the “Kremlin increasingly views Ukraine as a Western aircraft carrier” parked at Russia’s southwestern border.

“He believes that it’s time to shift gears in our foreign policy,” Mr. Trenin said of Mr. Putin’s new approach. In the Russian president’s evolving view of the West, he went on, “you only understand the language of force.”

Amid the tensions, Russia is pursuing talks with Washington on a range of issues as a prelude to a second summit meeting between Mr. Putin and President Biden — a sign that the Kremlin hopes to extract assurances that its influence in Eastern Europe will be respected. On Thursday, without offering further details, Mr. Putin said Russia would push for “serious long-term guarantees that ensure Russia’s security” in the region.

Mr. Biden has said he is seeking a “stable and predictable” relationship with Russia, while pledging to continue to push back against Russian actions that go against democratic values or American interests. In an interview with The New York Times last week, a Russian deputy foreign minister, Sergey A. Ryabkov, welcomed Mr. Biden’s engagement, while making it clear that Russia would expect concessions.

To Russia, Mr. Ryabkov said, stability and predictability meant “less American meddling in our domestic affairs, with less attempts by the U.S. to limit our completely legal and legitimate interaction with our friends, allies and partners all over the globe.”

Russia has hosted a series of American officials for talks in Moscow in recent months, including William Burns, the head of the C.I.A., and, this week, the American envoy for Afghan policy, Thomas West. On Wednesday, Jake Sullivan, Mr. Biden’s national security adviser, spoke by phone with Nikolai Patrushev, the secretary of Mr. Putin’s Security Council; Mr. Patrushev’s office said the call concerned “upcoming contacts” between the presidents and “improving the atmosphere of Russian-American relations.”

“I welcome signs of readiness on the other side not just to produce and promote its own points and views,” Mr. Ryabkov, the deputy foreign minister, said, “but also to listen to what we are telling them.”

Before he sat down with Mr. Putin in Geneva in June, Mr. Biden met with leaders of the Baltic countries to assure them that the United States would continue to honor its defense commitments under the NATO alliance. The administration, people familiar with its thinking said, believes more direct talks — including possibly a conversation between Mr. Biden and Mr. Putin — will be necessary to further understand Moscow’s intentions, rather than simply relying on old-school Kremlinology.

But Ms. Skaisgiryte, the Lithuanian foreign-policy official, said the United States needed to be careful in engaging with Russia even as Mr. Putin claims, as he did on Thursday, that Russia is a “peace-loving” state.

“We have to not be naïve,” Ms. Skaisgiryte said. “We have to be very vigilant about what he does on the ground, and not to put ourselves into the trap of Putin’s rhetoric.”

What does Mr. Putin want? Ms. Skaisgiryte’s answer is simple: “To restore the Soviet Union.”

Mr. Trenin, the Carnegie analyst, said Mr. Putin had little interest in full-fledged invasions and occupations of other countries, given that the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s helped precipitate the collapse of the Soviet Union. But he said securing an international commitment to Ukraine as a neutral state, with its more pro-Russian east being given some autonomy, was a critical priority for the Kremlin.

“President Putin has come to the conclusion that normal diplomatic channels, means, forms and methods are not working,” Mr. Trenin said. “The situation is, potentially, a rather bad one.”

Pubblicato in: Armamenti, Putin, Russia

Putin programma il rafforzamento della marina russa. Due nuovi sottomarini atomici.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-07.

Putin Vladimir 012

«Russian President Vladimir Putin opened the Army 2021 / International Military Technical Forum outside Moscow by publicly ordering the construction of several new naval vessels, including nuclear submarines»

«The event, a combination of war games and arms expo, is designed to showcase Russian military hardware and attract foreign buyers»

«The naval order was announced in a video call with shipyards in Severodvinsk, St. Petersburg and Komsomolsk-on-Amur»

«A strong and sovereign Russia needs a powerful and well-balanced navy, …. We will continue to boost the potential of the Russian navy, develop its bases and infrastructure, arm it with state-of-the-art weapons»

«I would like to stress that all the ships will be equipped with modern high-precision weapons, the latest navigation and communications equipment»

«The vessels ordered were of three types: Two nuclear submarines armed with intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), two large diesel submarines and two corvettes»

«We will continue to show the Russian flag in strategically important ocean areas»

«The nuclear submarines, named Dmitry Donskoy and Prince Potemkin, will be built at Sevmash Shipyards in Severodvinsk; the diesel subs, named after the cities of Mozhaisk and Yakutsk, will be constructed at Admiralty Shipyards in St. Petersburg; and the corvettes, named Grozny (Fearsome) and Buyny (Wild), will be built at the Amur Shipbuilding Plant in Komsomolsk-on-Amur»

«Putin also said work was underway on “promising” weapons, including the new hypersonic Kinzhal (dagger) nuclear-capable air-launched ballistic missile (ALBM) and the Sukhoi S-70 Okhotnik (hunter), a heavy stealth unmanned aerial combat vehicle (UCAV)»

* * * * * * *

La Russia intende potenziare la propria marina da attacco. Una volta entrati in linea, il Dmitry Donskoy ed il Prince Potemkin aumenteranno il potenziale offensivo russo di circa trenta missili balistici intercontinentali, ciascuno dei quali dovrebbe portare una decina di testate nucleari: quanto sarebbe sufficiente a distruggere gli Stati Uniti.

Per garantire la pace è necessario mantenere gli attuali equilibri.

*


Russia begins construction of new nuclear submarines

President Putin opened an arms expo by publicly placing construction orders for six new naval vessels. The Kremlin is focused on military modernization as relations with the West worsen.

Russian President Vladimir Putin opened the Army 2021 / International Military Technical Forum outside Moscow by publicly ordering the construction of several new naval vessels, including nuclear submarines, Monday.

The event, a combination of war games and arms expo, is designed to showcase Russian military hardware and attract foreign buyers. Jordan’s King Abdullah II, for instance, was among those in attendance.

The naval order was announced in a video call with shipyards in Severodvinsk, St. Petersburg and Komsomolsk-on-Amur.

“A strong and sovereign Russia needs a powerful and well-balanced navy,” said Putin. “We will continue to boost the potential of the Russian navy, develop its bases and infrastructure, arm it with state-of-the-art weapons,” he added.

“I would like to stress that all the ships will be equipped with modern high-precision weapons, the latest navigation and communications equipment. The majority of these technologies proved their effectiveness during combat operations in Syria,” said the president as he addressed shipyard workers.

Kremlin pushing modernization of Russia’s naval fleet

The vessels ordered were of three types: Two nuclear submarines armed with intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), two large diesel submarines and two corvettes.

The move is part of the Kremlin’s push to overhaul the Russian navy, a top priority as its relations with the West deteriorate.

“We will continue to show the Russian flag in strategically important ocean areas,” said Putin on Monday, as he seeks to re-establish a regular Russian naval presence on par with that of the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

The nuclear submarines, named Dmitry Donskoy and Prince Potemkin, will be built at Sevmash Shipyards in Severodvinsk; the diesel subs, named after the cities of Mozhaisk and Yakutsk, will be constructed at Admiralty Shipyards in St. Petersburg; and the corvettes, named Grozny (Fearsome) and Buyny (Wild), will be built at the Amur Shipbuilding Plant in Komsomolsk-on-Amur.

Putin also said work was underway on “promising” weapons, including the new hypersonic Kinzhal (dagger) nuclear-capable air-launched ballistic missile (ALBM) and the Sukhoi S-70 Okhotnik (hunter), a heavy stealth unmanned aerial combat vehicle (UCAV).

Russia’s military activity — most notably in eastern Ukraine and Crimea, which Moscow illegally annexed in 2014 — has put the NATO military alliance on edge and thrown ties with the West into a tailspin, pushing relations to their lowest point since the Cold War.