Pubblicato in: Cina, Commercio, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Cina. Pil T2 +6.8% anno/anno. I dazi cinesi.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-07-21.

2018-07-16__Cina__001

Nel secondo trimestre il Pil cinese è incrementato del 6.8%, su base annuale.

Se si pensasse che a fine 2000 il pil ammontava a 1,214.915 miliardi Usd contro gli 11,221.836 miliardi Usd a fine 2016, si constaterebbe che in questo arco di tempo è aumento di un fattore dieci.

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Di questi tempi si fa un gran parlare dei dazi che gli Stato Uniti stanno mettendo sulle merci cinesi, ma ben poco si considerano i dazi cinesi sui beni americani ed occidentali in senso lato.

Si tenga presente che al momento attuale i dazi cinesi, amministrati e riscossi dal State Administration of Taxation of Customs, rendono conto del 3.5% del totale delle entrate fiscali.

«La più diffusa tariffa d’importazione resta, in ogni caso, la most favoured nations la cui aliquota varia da 0% a 65%, laddove le general tariff rates possono addirittura superare un rate del 250%. ….

Gli export duty hanno un’aliquota che varia da 20% a 50% mentre è applicata un’imposta fino al 40% per le merci soggette a provisional tariff rates. Consigliabile, comunque, di prendere visione delle tariffe applicate ad ogni singolo bene per conoscere a pieno l’ammontare esatto dell’aliquota d’imposta» [Fonte]

RsA Asia ha stilato un elenco dei dazi cinesi.

Se sulla pelletteria il dazio medio è del 20%, sugli indumenti sale al 25%. Sulle macchine endotermiche abbiamo dazi del 30%, così come sugli apparecchi elettrici. Questo solo per fare degli esempi.

Il problema si configurerebbe quindi come la necessità di rimodulare i dazi da ambo le parti.

Non sembrerebbe sinceramente cosa onesta guardare solo ai dazi praticati da una delle due parti.


Sole 24 Ore. 2018-07-16. Cina, Pil in crescita nel secondo trimestre: +6,7% su base annua

La Cina, nel mezzo delle tensioni commerciali con gli Usa, segna nel secondo trimestre del 2018 un Pil in crescita dell’1,8% su base congiunturale e del 6,7% su base annua: i dati, diffusi dal Ufficio nazionale di statistica, si confrontano, rispettivamente, con il +1,4% e il +6,8% del primo trimestre e il +1,4% e il +6,7% delle previsioni formulate degli economisti. La crescita su base annua rallenta, ma quella congiunturale batte le attese, spingendo a un rialzo semestrale del 6,8%. Caldissimo il tema dei dazi, sul fronte delle relazioni internazionali, come dimostra anche la conferenza stampa congiunta Cina-Ue.

L’appello di Tusk: «Evitiamo guerre commerciali»

«È comune dovere di Ue, Cina, Usa e Russia non iniziare guerre commerciali», ha detto il presidente del Consiglio europeo Donald Tusk, parlando accanto al premier cinese Li Keqiang e al presidente della Commissione Ue Jean-Claude Juncker. «C’è ancora tempo per prevenire il conflitto e il caos». Tusk ha «ripetuto» quanto appena riferito al premier Li durante il bilaterale Cina-Ue: «Oggi, nello stesso giorno in cui l’Europa incontra la Cina a Pechino, il presidente americano Trump e il presidente russo Putin parleranno a Helsinki. Siamo tutti consapevoli del fatto che l’architettura del mondo sta cambiando sotto i nostri occhi». Ed è «nostra responsabilità comune renderlo un cambiamento per il meglio. Ricordiamo, qui a Pechino, e là, a Helsinki, che il mondo che stavamo costruendo da decenni, a volte attraverso dispute, ha portato la pace per l’Europa, lo sviluppo della Cina e la fine della Guerra Fredda tra l’Oriente e l’Occidente. È un dovere comune dell’Europa e della Cina, dell’America e della Russia, non distruggere questo ordine, ma migliorarlo», ha detto Tusk.

Wto da cambiare

In altri termini, «non iniziare guerre commerciali, che si sono trasformate in conflitti così spesso nella nostra storia, ma per riformare coraggiosamente e responsabilmente l’ordine internazionale basato sulle regole. Per questo motivo chiedo ai nostri padroni di casa cinesi, ma anche ai presidenti Trump e Putin di avviare congiuntamente questo processo di riforma del Wto», l’Organizzazione mondiale del Commercio. «C’è ancora tempo per prevenire il conflitto e il caos. Oggi siamo di fronte a un dilemma: se giocare a un gioco duro come guerre tariffarie e conflitti in luoghi come l’Ucraina e la Siria, o cercare soluzioni comuni basate su regole eque. Questo è il motivo per cui responsabilità, prevedibilità, spirito di cooperazione e rispetto delle nostre regole e degli impegni comuni sono così importanti in questi giorni». L’Ue, ha concluso Tusk, «è impegnata a lavorare per la modernizzazione del Wto»: c’è bisogno di nuove regole in materia di sussidi industriali, proprietà intellettuale e trasferimenti forzati di tecnologia, riduzione dei costi commerciali, nonché di un nuovo approccio allo sviluppo e alle risoluzione delle controversie più efficace. In questo scenario, il Wto va rafforzato «come istituzione e come garanzia di parità di condizioni».

Ricorso cinese al Wto contro i dazi Usa

A proposito di World Trade Organization: la Cina ha deciso di ricorrere al Wto, contro la minaccia di dazi aggiuntivi al 10% annunciati dagli Usa sull’import di beni «made in China» per 200 miliardi di dollari ex art.301 dello Us Trade Act. La mossa, annunciata con un post sul sito del ministero del Commercio, cade nel giorno in cui Cina e Ue, nel loro 20esimo summit annuale, hanno ribadito l’impegno congiunto per il multilateralismo e il libero scambio.

Annunci
Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Germania. Proposta di legge per ridurre il numero di asylum seekers.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-07-21.

Berlino Porta Brandemburgo

Lo status di rifugiato politico è usualmente concesso solo ed esclusivamente a persone che sono fuggite da ambienti ove fossero in corso conflitti oppure fossero perseguitate, ovvero ancora corressero  il forte rischio di esserlo, per motivi di opinioni, quali per esempio il credo religioso oppure le idee politiche. Il rischio deve essere ben documentato e certo. Un caso da manuale era quello degli Ebrei fuggiti dalla Germania degli anni trenta.

Nel corso degli ultimi decenni governi e corti di giustizia occidentali hanno dilatato in modo non indifferente numero e qualità delle situazioni per le quali il diritto di asilo possa essere richiesto. Così, da persecuzione ‘certa‘ si è arrivati dapprima a ‘probabile‘, ed infine ‘possibile‘. Anche su cosa significhi il termine ‘persecuzione‘ è stato oggetto di ampi dibattiti. Così, dalle violenze fisiche si è giunti a quelle psicologiche, alle discriminazioni, e così via.

Dal punto di vista giurisprudenziale si è davanti ad una pletora di sentenze spesso conflittuali.

Alla fine, se non altro per dare una parvenza di ordine, molti stati hanno stilato un elenco di nazioni da essi ritenuti essere ‘sicure‘ e di altri ritenuti essere ‘persecutrici‘. Almeno in questa maniera il criterio di largizione del diritto di asilo soggiaceva ad una regola ben precisa e semplice da essere gestita.

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Alcuni stati hanno liste di stati insicuri molto scarne, altri invece sono talmente larghi da etichettare come ‘insicuro‘ un stato, che vi compare un lungo elenco. Per la Germania la lista dei paesi ritenuti essere insicuri è sterminata.

«Germany’s government launched a renewed attempt Wednesday to declare three North African states and Georgia “safe countries of origin”, which would raise the hurdles for asylum requests by its citizens»

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«Legislation, which aims to reduce the migrant influx to Germany, would add Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia as well as Georgia to the “safe” country list that so far includes all EU members, six Balkans countries, Ghana and Senegal»

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Se accettata, questa proposta di legge ridurrebbe in modo molto significativo il numero di richieste di asilo accettabili per l’esame di rito.

I verdi hanno già chiarito che si opporranno.

«left-leaning ecologist party … on the three Maghreb states, arguing that journalists, homosexuals and other groups were not safe from persecution there»

In parole poverissime, sarebbe sufficiente che il migrante dichiari di essere un giornalista oppure di essere omosessuale e la richiesta di asilo sarebbe accolta in meno di un amen. Cosa che nei fatti sta accadendo regolarmente.

Lasciamo al Lettore immaginare l’enorme numero di giornalisti e di omosessuali che hanno fatto richiesta di asilo.

Parigi, in fondo, val bene una Messa.


The Local. 2018-07-19. German bill to cut asylum seekers from North Africa, Georgia

Germany’s government launched a renewed attempt Wednesday to declare three North African states and Georgia “safe countries of origin”, which would raise the hurdles for asylum requests by its citizens.

Legislation, which aims to reduce the migrant influx to Germany, would add Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia as well as Georgia to the “safe” country list that so far includes all EU members, six Balkans countries, Ghana and Senegal.

However, passage of the bill into law was far from certain after a first attempt was rejected last year in the upper house by states ruled by the Greens party, which advocates a humanitarian approach toward people seeking safe haven.

Greens party co-leader Robert Habeck said his left-leaning ecologist party had not changed its position on the three Maghreb states, arguing that journalists, homosexuals and other groups were not safe from persecution there.

“Therefore I don’t see how these countries can be called safe,” Habeck told the media group Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland.

Interior Minister Horst Seehofer, presenting the initiative at a Berlin press conference, argued that the bill still allows authorities to evaluate individual cases on their merits.

He said the aim was to deter asylum requests, or to speed up their processing and likely deportations, from countries whose citizens have almost no chance of being granted residency rights in Germany.

Immigration and refugee flows have become a flashpoint issue in Germany since Chancellor Angela Merkel decided in 2015 to keep borders open to a mass influx of people fleeing war and misery in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan and other countries.

The move earned her praise from liberal commentators but also sparked a xenophobic backlash that last year saw the far-right and anti-Islam protest party Alternative for Germany (AfD) enter parliament for the first time.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Istruzione e Ricerca, Unione Europea

Immigrati. Rimpiazzeranno i 11,800 medici che mancano.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-07-21.

Gatto. sono -stati-i- russi

Come ogni stato del socialismo reale che si rispetti, anche in Italia esiste un Gosplan, abbreviazione di Gosudarstvennoe Planovij Komitet, commissione statale per la pianificazione, che determina il numero di persone che possono iscriversi alla facoltà di medicina e chirurgia.

Nulla deve sfuggire al controllo dello stato. Ci mancherebbe altro!

Vi lavorano tutte le migliori menti della nazione.

Mica roba da Premi Nobel: chiunque in fondo può conseguire questo premio. Basta soltanto che scopra la teoria della relatività oppure il neutrino.

Per fare il funzionario nel Gosplan ‘de noiatri‘ devi avere almeno una ambitissima tessera del partito interno ed essere il fedele interprete del volere dei potenti. Se poi si fosse figli di …. oppure amanti di …. allora molte difficoltà si appianerebbero.

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«Aumentano le chance per i maturandi che aspirano al camice bianco. E anche quelle per gli aspiranti veterinari e architetti. Il ministro dell’Istruzione, dell’Università e della Ricerca, Marco Bussetti, ha firmato i decreti sui corsi universitari ad accesso programmato nazionale (Medicina, Odontoiatria, Veterinaria, Professioni sanitarie, Architettura e Scienze della formazione primaria) con la specifica dei posti per ogni ateneo. E rispetto al 2017, aumentano i posti in tutte le facoltà.

Medicina e Odontoiatria, quelle più gettonate, avranno rispettivamente quasi 800 (da 9.100 passano a 9.779) posti e quasi 200 (si passa dai 908 del 2017 ai 1.096 del 2018) posti in più rispetto all’anno scorso. Una buona notizia per le migliaia di ragazzi e ragazze che si preparano ad affrontare il quizzone ministeriale. L’anno scorso si presentarono in 60mila e quest’anno potrebbero anche aumentare.» [Fonte]

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Ma il lavoro di questa costellazione di burocrati trova un ferocissimo nemico in una potenza straniera che ha dimostrato in passato di riuscire a condizionare il voto di centinaia di milioni di persone negli Stati Uniti. Gente sordidamente losca che ha fatto fare un gigantesco flop al Gosplan pianificatore al solo scopo di denigrarlo e ricoprirlo di biacca, intendendo per biacca ciò che tutti ben comprendiamo. Se non fosse stato per questo perfido piano spionistico la pianificazione del Ministero sarebbe stata semplicemente perfetta, non perfettibile. Hanno anche programmato due Michelangelo e tre Raffaello. Tutti rigorosoamente iscritti al partito ….

«In Italia, nei prossimi 5 anni,

mancheranno 11.800 medici»

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Il problema potrebbe essere facilmente risolto conferendo a 11,800 immigrati arrivati su di un qualche barcone il lunedì la laurea in lettere moderne, il martedì quella in medicina e chirurgia, il mercoledì una specialità a scelta, il giovedì una abilitazione alla professione  ed il venerdì un primariato a piacere, dalla neurochirurgia alla medicina nucleare.

E gli italiani? Ma che si studino il nigeriano, poffare!


Ansa. 2018-07-12. Fra 5 anni mancheranno 11.800 medici

In Italia, nei prossimi 5 anni, mancheranno 11.800 medici. Ad oggi, abbiamo ancora più medici degli altri Paesi Ue con sistemi sanitari simili ma da qui al 2022 tra uscite dal lavoro e numero contingentato di nuovi specialisti mancheranno 11.803 dottori, anche se si andasse ad un totale sblocco del turn over. Questo anche a causa del fatto che il 35% lascia il lavoro prima dei limiti di età, perché si prepensiona o per andare nel privato. A lanciare l’allarme è la Federazione delle aziende sanitarie pubbliche (Fiaso). Un problema è anche rappresentato dal fatto che, in entrata, uno specializzando su 4 non opta per il servizio pubblico. E’ questo il quadro del fabbisogno medico in Asl e ospedali tracciato dal Laboratorio Fiaso sulle politiche del personale. Lo studio è stato presentato in occasione dell’Assemblea annuale della Federazione delle aziende sanitarie pubbliche ed è svolto su un campione rappresentativo di 91 aziende sanitarie e ospedaliere, pari al 44% dell’intero universo sanitario pubblico.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti, Trump

Trump. Con tutti i problemi, i liberal vedono solo aborto e ‘diritti civili’.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-07-20.

Liberal 001

I liberal democratici sono davvero gente strana.

Gli Stati Uniti hanno una lunga serie di pesanti problemi, dalla pace nel mondo, i rapporti con la Nord Korea, quelli con la Cina e l’Unione Europea, i problemi del mondo del lavoro e della produzione, quelli energetici e così via. Per non parlare poi di un debito pubblico molto elevato.

«Democratic senators running for re-election in Trump Country face an agonizing choice over President Trump’s coming Supreme Court nominee: Vote to confirm the pick and risk demoralizing Democratic voters ahead of the midterm elections, or stick with the party and possibly sacrifice their own seats — and any chance at a Democratic majority in 2019.

The actions of a handful of Senate Democrats struggling to hold their seats in red states where Mr. Trump remains popular — notably Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, Joe Donnelly of Indiana and Joe Manchin III of West Virginia — will have broad implications for the party at a critical political juncture. ….

In addition, Democrats proved they could remain united against the president on the tax bill and on repealing the Affordable Care Act, two past instances that were also seen as carrying big political risks. Party strategists say that if they can make health care a cornerstone of the Supreme Court fight, it could embolden the red-state Democrats to push back against the White House. …. have a history of elevating the Supreme Court above all else, given its influence on major social policy such as abortion, immigration, education, voting rights and the environment.» [The New York Times]

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Per i liberal democratici gli unici temi di interesse nazionale sono:

«abortion, immigration, education, voting rights and the environment»

A nostro sommesso parere un elenco alquanto limitativo.

«Mr. Trump announced that he will nominate Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh to the court to fill the seat of retiring Justice Anthony M. Kennedy, kicking off what is expected to be the most bruising confirmation battle in three decades.»

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«President Trump’s Supreme Court pick must detail his personal views on abortion in order to win confirmation»

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«arguing that the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision that established a national right to abortion could be erased if Mr. Trump gets his way»

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Già. I liberal democratici hanno fatto dell’aborto la loro bandiera portante: non esiste paese a regime liberal che non abbia introdotto l’aborto. Per loro è diventato un simbolo della loro fattiva presenza. È una ideologia della morte.

Ma il grande insegnamento che hanno lasciato i liberal socialisti è che un governo che ne abbia la forza per farlo può legiferare come meglio crede.

Così, se un governo ammise l’aborto, un altro governo può serenamente abrogare le leggi che lo istituiscono e permettono. Se un governo depenalizza la omosessualità, allora un governo può legiferare rendendolo reato.

Se era lecito ai liberal perché non dovrebbe esserlo per i repubblicani?

Negli anni futuri ne vedremo della belle. Però, con tutti i grandi problemi attuali, da quelli dei rapporti internazionali fino a quelli domestici della produzione e dell’occupazione, per non parlare poi di quel venti per cento della popolazione che vive in miseria, ridurre la lotta politica ad aborto sì o no ci sembrerebbe essere del tutto fuori luogo.


The Washington Times. 2018-07-10. Chuck Schumer: Brett Kavanaugh must divulge personal views on abortion to win confirmation

Saying the country was burned by past nominees, Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer insisted Monday that President Trump’s Supreme Court pick must detail his personal views on abortion in order to win confirmation.

Mr. Trump announced that he will nominate Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh to the court to fill the seat of retiring Justice Anthony M. Kennedy, kicking off what is expected to be the most bruising confirmation battle in three decades.

Republican leaders said they want to have Judge Kavanaugh on the high court by the beginning of October, when the court’s next session begins.

That means a speedy schedule of hearings, a vote in committee and then floor approval — all within 11 weeks.

But even before the vacancy, senators agreed to stay in session for most of August to work on other business, and given that seven of the past nine successful picks were confirmed within that timeline, Republicans were confident Monday that it can be done.

Democrats, meanwhile, are intent on derailing that schedule, hoping to push the fight into the elections and perhaps even into next year, when they hope to have retaken the Senate.

Until then, they are working to persuade key Republicans to defect, arguing that the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision that established a national right to abortion could be erased if Mr. Trump gets his way.

Mr. Schumer said lawmakers should reject vague assurances from Judge Kavanaugh and insist he detail his personal thoughts on abortion. He said the country was burned by Justice Neil M. Gorsuch, Mr. Trump’s first pick.

“At this critical juncture, with so many rights at stake, senators and the American people should expect an affirmative statement of support,” Mr. Schumer said on the Senate floor Monday.

Democrats have offered myriad reasons why they wouldn’t vote for anyone Mr. Trump nominated.

Party leaders initially said after Republicans refused to allow action on a nominee in 2016 ahead of the presidential election that a vote should be delayed this year until after the congressional elections.

But after Republicans pointed out that a number of nominees, including President Obama’s second pick, were confirmed in congressional election years, most Democrats searched for other objections.

Several said they were upset about the process Mr. Trump used, relying on a public list of potential names he developed during the 2016 campaign, with the help of conservative groups such as the Federalist Society and The Heritage Foundation.

Republicans countered that the list made the process the most transparent in history, with the public knowing what to expect from a Trump pick — and electing him president on those promises.

Mr. Schumer, the man liberals are counting on to fight the pick, used the hours before Mr. Trump’s announcement to try to set a new standard any nominee must clear.

He said that while nominees in the past have been reluctant to give their views on issues that may come before them, senators must demand such disclosure in this case — and particularly on abortion.

He said general promises to respect precedent are no longer enough of a guarantee that the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision establishing a national right to abortion will survive.

Mr. Schumer said too many recent nominees have said they would respect precedent only to overturn past decisions once on the high court.

“When they say they’ll obey settled law, we can’t believe it,” Mr. Schumer said.

Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley, the Iowa Republican who will oversee the confirmation process, said that was an unfair standard. He pointed instead to iconic liberal Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who during her 1993 confirmation process refused to give any hints about her leanings, saying it would inappropriate.

“I expect any nominee to likewise follow the Ginsburg standard,” Mr. Grassley said.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Kentucky Republican, said Democrats were searching for any reason to oppose Mr. Trump’s pick. He pointed to several who said they would vote against the nominee well before they knew who it was.

Mr. McConnell said the nominee will get full hearings in the Senate Judiciary Committee, then come to the Senate floor where he has already predicted approval.

“One more round of 40-year-old scare tactics will not stop us from doing the right thing,” Mr. McConnell said.

Over the past 18 months, the Senate majority leader has paved the way for speedy confirmation.

First, he triggered the “nuclear option” last year to curtail the power of the filibuster on Supreme Court nominees.

This year, he announced that he was shortening the usual monthlong August vacation to just one week, saying the Senate needed more time to complete work on spending bills and presidential nominations. It turns out one of those nominations will be for the Supreme Court.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Ong - Ngo

Hong Kong verso il bando dei secessionisti.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-07-20.

Pechino-Cina

Nessuno si stupisce più di tanto nello studiare nei libri di storia la Guerra di Secessione Americana. Gli stati del sud si separarono alla federazione ed i rimanenti stati entrarono in guerra con loro per ricostituire l’integrità nazionale.

Per fatti più recenti, il tentativo di secessione catalano può essere visto da molte differenti angolature, ma nessuno potrebbe negare alla Spagna il diritto di difendere la propria unità nazionale.

I problemi poi si complicano quando le secessioni interessino politicamente anche altri stati, che sottobanco fomentano questi fenomeni nel tentativo sia di generare problemi sia di destabilizzare le situazioni in essere.

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L’Hong Kong National Party (HKNP) è dichiaratamente secessionista, e questo non è fatto facilmente tollerabile da parte cinese.

Nei fatti, gli aderenti ed i simpatizzanti sono ben pochi. Hanno invece una risonanza del tutto spropositata sui media internazionali per motivi di politica più dell’Occidente che per la loro effettiva azione politcia.

La stampa liberal tende a scrivere in modo tale che il lettore sia indotto a credere che dietro all’HKNP vi siano milioni di persone. Ma ciò non è vero.

Il titolo era altisonante:

A Hong Kong la comunità LGBT in piazza per la parità di genere

«Striscioni e bandiere arcobaleno per le strade di Hong Kong. La comunità LGBT ha sfilato per le vie della città per protestare e criticare la posizione delle autorità, in ritardo in materia di uguaglianza di diritti e parità di genere.»

Poi le fotografie rappresentavano un noto caratterista tedesco, che parlava anche un inglese fluente: ben difficile credersi che fosse un cinese. I cinesi patrocinano a tal punto l’omofilia da dover importare gli agitatori per le sfilate lgbt, che altrimenti sarebbero deserte.

Hong Kong. Guarda guarda chi si rivede.

Anche le menzogne bisogna saperle dirle bene.

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Hong Kong. Edward Leung condannato a sei anni per rivolta. – Aljazeera.

Mr Edwars Leung, un po’ strano un cinese con un nome occidentale, è stato condannato non tanto in quanto secessionista, quanto per il fatto di aver fomentato una rivolta durante la quale

«About 130 people, mostly police, were injured when masked protesters tossed bricks and set rubbish cans alight to vent their anger against what they saw as mainland Chinese encroachment on the city’s autonomy and freedoms»

Serve davvero una buona dose di immaginazione raffigurarsi un processo democratico basato sullo spedire 130 persone in ospedale.

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«Amid growing concern for Hong Kong’s freedoms, the territory’s police has sought to ban a pro-independence group»

Adesso le autorità cinesi stanno valutando l’ipotesi di mettere al bando il movimento secessionista.

Se per “freedom, human rights, equality and dignity” si intende il fracassar crani a mattonate i cinesi ne fanno volentieri a meno.


Deutsche Welle. 2018-07-17. Hong Kong police seek ban on pro-independence party

Amid growing concern for Hong Kong’s freedoms, the territory’s police has sought to ban a pro-independence group. The move comes as China attempts to tighten its grip on the semi-autonomous region.

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Hong Kong police on Tuesday commenced action to shut down a pro-independence party that promotes secession from China.

The Hong Kong Security Bureau sent a letter to Hong Kong National Party (HKNP) founder Andy Chan telling him he had until August 7 to “make representations in writing” as to why it should not be banned, according to the party’s social media page, which posted photos of the letter.

The letter said the secretary for security had received a recommendation that it was “necessary in the interests of national security or public safety, public order or the protection of human rights” to prohibit the operation of the HKNP.

Hong Kong is a semi-autonomous territory within China that is governed under a “one country, two systems” principle.

It is the first time since the former British colony’s return to Chinese rule in 1997 that it has attempted to ban a political organization.

Hong Kong’s secretary for security, John Lee, said Tuesday he was considering the request made by police to ban the HKNP, which is one of the leading groups in Hong Kong’s pro-independence movement.

“In Hong Kong we have freedom of association, but that right is not without restriction,” Lee told reporters.

‘I will never stop’

Chan, 27, told news organization Reuters that he would need to consult lawyers on his next step, but pledged to continue pushing for independence.

“I will never stop in my pursuit of freedom, human rights, equality and dignity,” Chan said.

While Hong Kong enjoys a high level of autonomy and freedoms China doesn’t have, such as freedom of speech and freedom of assembly, there is increasing concern that those rights are under threat from a forceful China under President Xi Jinping.

Hong Kong’s independence movement gained momentum following mass pro-democracy rallies in 2014 that failed to win reforms.

Pro-independence campaigners have been barred from running for office and others disqualified from the legislature, including Chan, who was blocked from standing for a seat in the city’s Legislative Council.

Leading independence activist Edward Leung was jailed for six years in June on rioting charges after clashes with police in 2016.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Stati Uniti, Trump

Fed. Beige Book. Le imprese stentano a trovare personale.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-07-19.

FED 001

La Fed ha pubblicato il Beige Book di Luglio.

«Economic activity continued to expand across the United States, with 10 of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts reporting moderate or modest growth. The outliers were the Dallas District, which reported strong growth driven in part by the energy sector, and the St. Louis District where growth was described as slight. Manufacturers in all Districts expressed concern about tariffs and in many Districts reported higher prices and supply disruptions that they attributed to the new trade policies. All Districts reported that labor markets were tight and many said that the inability to find workers constrained growth. Consumer spending was up in all Districts with particular strength in Dallas and Richmond. Contacts reported higher input prices and shrinking margins. Six Districts specifically mentioned trucking capacity as an issue and attributed it to a shortage of commercial drivers. Contacts in several Districts reported slow growth in existing home sales but were not overly concerned about rising interest rates. Commercial real estate was largely unchanged.»

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«Employment continued to rise at a modest to moderate pace in most Districts. Labor markets were described as tight, with most Districts reporting firms had difficulty finding qualified labor. Shortages were cited across a wide range of occupations, including highly skilled engineers, specialized construction and manufacturing workers, IT professionals, and truck drivers; some Districts indicated labor shortages were constraining growth. Districts noted firms were adding work hours, strengthening retention efforts, partnering with local schools, and converting temporary workers to permanent, as well as raising compensation to attract and retain employees. On balance, wage increases were modest to moderate, with some differences across sectors; a couple of Districts cited a pickup in the pace of wage growth.»

* * * * * * *

Il report è molto dettagliato, distretto per distretto.

Di rilevanza federale emergono alcuni elementi.

– Il sistema economico è in crescita: “Economic activity continued to expand across the United States, with 10 of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts reporting moderate or modest growth”

– “Commercial real estate was largely unchanged”

– “Employment continued to rise at a modest to moderate pace in most Districts”

– “most Districts reporting firms had difficulty finding qualified labor”

*

Il tasso di occupazione è così alto e quello di disoccupazione così basso, che molte aziende hanno difficoltà a trovare lavoratori qualificati. Sono il segno inequivocabile del buono stato di salute del sistema economico.

Questi due dati sembrerebbero essere di particolare importanza. Infatti, all’interno dei numerosi indici econometrici, il numero degli occupati e quello dei disoccupati hanno la caratteristica di essere facili da raccogliere senza incorrere in particolari errori, e non sono il frutto di calcoli intermedi.

Fed. Beige Book – July 18. 2018.

This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston based on information collected on or before July 9, 2018. This document summarizes comments received from contacts outside the Federal Reserve System and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.

Overall Economic Activity

wconomic activity continued to expand across the United States, with 10 of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts reporting moderate or modest growth. The outliers were the Dallas District, which reported strong growth driven in part by the energy sector, and the St. Louis District where growth was described as slight. Manufacturers in all Districts expressed concern about tariffs and in many Districts reported higher prices and supply disruptions that they attributed to the new trade policies. All Districts reported that labor markets were tight and many said that the inability to find workers constrained growth. Consumer spending was up in all Districts with particular strength in Dallas and Richmond. Contacts reported higher input prices and shrinking margins. Six Districts specifically mentioned trucking capacity as an issue and attributed it to a shortage of commercial drivers. Contacts in several Districts reported slow growth in existing home sales but were not overly concerned about rising interest rates. Commercial real estate was largely unchanged.

Employment and Wages

Employment continued to rise at a modest to moderate pace in most Districts. Labor markets were described as tight, with most Districts reporting firms had difficulty finding qualified labor. Shortages were cited across a wide range of occupations, including highly skilled engineers, specialized construction and manufacturing workers, IT professionals, and truck drivers; some Districts indicated labor shortages were constraining growth. Districts noted firms were adding work hours, strengthening retention efforts, partnering with local schools, and converting temporary workers to permanent, as well as raising compensation to attract and retain employees. On balance, wage increases were modest to moderate, with some differences across sectors; a couple of Districts cited a pickup in the pace of wage growth.

Prices
Prices increased in all Districts at a pace that was modest to moderate on average; reports showed upticks in inflation in several Districts. The prices of key inputs rose further, including fuel, construction materials, freight, and metals; a few Districts described these input price pressures as elevated or strong. Tariffs contributed to the increases for metals and lumber. However, the extent of pass-through from input to consumer prices remained slight to moderate. Movements in agricultural commodities prices were mixed across products and Districts. Pricing pressures are expected to intensify further moving forward in some Districts, while in others the outlook is for stable price increases at a modest to moderate pace.

Highlights by Federal Reserve District

Boston
Business activity continued to expand at a moderate pace, with contacted manufacturers, retailers, hotels, and software and IT firms reporting year-over-year increases in revenues. Some contacts saw higher prices and lower margins. Contacts reported difficulty hiring in skilled occupations.

New York

The regional economy continued to expand at a moderate pace, and labor markets have remained tight. Input price increases have remained fairly widespread, and selling prices continued to increase moderately. Housing markets have continued to firm, on balance, while commercial real estate markets have softened a bit.

Philadelphia
Economic activity continued to expand at a modest pace. With tightening labor markets, job growth also remained modest, but wages are now rising moderately. On balance, contacts continued to observe modest price increases with few concerns for future inflation. Notably, nonresidential construction activity has begun to decline from its prior high levels.

Cleveland
The District economy grew moderately. Labor markets tightened, with wage pressures noted broadly. Rising fuel and metals costs are pressuring manufacturers, construction firms, and transportation companies. Stronger confidence in the economy boosted demand in nonfinancial services and the retail sector. Construction activity remained strong.

Richmond
The regional economy grew at a moderate rate. Manufacturing and retail sales strengthened, but firms in both sectors faced transportation constraints and rising input costs. Trucking firms saw record demand, which was partially unmet due to the driver shortage. Port activity remained strong. Labor demand increased moderately, and some firms reported shortages. Price growth accelerated slightly but remained moderate, overall.

Atlanta
Economic activity modestly expanded since the previous report. The labor market remained tight. Reports of wage growth were mixed. Some commodity input prices continued to increase. Consumer spending improved since the last report. Nonresidential construction increased; however, multifamily construction showed signs of slowing. Manufacturing activity grew.

Chicago
Growth in economic activity slowed to a modest pace. Manufacturing production increased moderately, while employment, consumer spending, business spending, and construction and real estate activity grew modestly. Wages and prices increased modestly, and financial conditions improved modestly. The outlook for agriculture income dimmed some.

St. Louis

Economic conditions improved slightly. Labor market conditions remained tight and wage growth was modest. Local contacts reported robust increases in shipping costs across all sectors due to higher fuel prices and driver shortages. Businesses’ reports on the impact of tariffs have varied by industry.

Minneapolis
Economic activity in the Ninth District grew moderately, led by strong growth in manufacturing. Hiring demand remained strong, but workers were harder to find. Wages grew moderately with some signs of stronger growth among union wages. Professional services firms saw growth across the board, and lodging demand appeared robust heading into the summer tourism season.

Kansas City

Economic activity expanded moderately since the previous survey, and growth was expected to continue in the months ahead. Most sectors expanded, including a slight pickup in energy activity, modestly higher consumer spending and business services, moderately stronger real estate activity, and continued robust gains in the manufacturing sector. Capital spending plans across the District were positive.

Dallas
Economic activity continued to grow at a solid pace. Manufacturing output rose, and broad-based expansion in the services and energy sectors continued. Retail spending rose while drought conditions became more widespread. Hiring remained solid despite a tight labor market, and wage and price pressures stayed elevated. Expectations regarding future business activity were optimistic, although uncertainty arising from U.S. trade policy weighed on outlooks.

San Francisco

Economic activity in the Twelfth District continued to expand at a moderate pace. Conditions in the labor market remained tight, and price inflation increased moderately. Sales of retail goods picked up slightly, and activity in the consumer and business services sectors edged down. Activity in the manufacturing sector and in residential and commercial real estate markets was solid. Lending activity ticked up moderately.

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

Summary of Economic Activity

First District economic activity continued to expand at a moderate pace, with nearly all responding retailers, manufacturers, hospitality providers, and software and IT firms citing year-over-year increases in sales and revenues in recent weeks. Residential real estate markets saw price increases but fewer closed sales although contacts reported higher listings and expected higher sales in the future. Commercial real estate markets were generally expanding, although growth in retail was mixed. Hotels reported slower growth which they attributed to the expansion of on-line short term rentals. Contacts across a range of industries said trucking capacity continued to be a major issue. Overall, the outlook continued to be positive. Contacts expressed concerns about tariffs but none cited trade issues as affecting demand or hiring and capital expenditure plans.

Employment and Wages

Many responding firms have done some hiring; most reported tight labor markets and modest increases in pay. Retail contacts reported that labor supply was tight and one contact said labor costs were up 10 percent over the previous year. All surveyed manufacturers were hiring or maintaining current levels of employment. Manufacturing contacts said the labor market was tight, but the exceptional difficulties were mostly in highly skilled areas like engineering. Labor shortages continued to be an issue in the hospitality industry, particularly in seasonal destinations like Cape Cod. Contacts in the software and information technology areas expressed concerns about restrictive immigration policies.

Prices
Most respondents reported modest increases in prices. Although contacts were concerned about the effect of tariffs, none of our contacts reported any material impact so far. Higher freight costs continued to be an issue across a wide array of industries, with the shortage of commercial truck drivers being cited as an important factor. Several manufacturing contacts said that they were only able to pass through a portion of the higher costs to customers. As a result, margins were declining. House prices continued to rise throughout the region.

Retail and Tourism

The retailers consulted for this round reported recent comparable-store sales gains ranging from 3 percent to 10 percent year-over-year. One firm noted that higher freight costs contributed to higher overhead costs and that a shortage of workers led to a 10 percent increase in labor costs compared to a year ago. Despite these higher operating costs, the retail outlook for the rest of the year remains positive, provided that consumer sentiment does not abate.

Two travel industry sources reported that business was either flat or slightly down in late May, but appeared to have rebounded strongly in June. Both contacts reported that traditional lodging providers, such as hotels and bed-and-breakfast establishments, were encountering increased competition from online platforms offering short-term rentals. This shift in consumer preferences was expected to continue. Labor shortages continued to be a concern, and in places like the Outer Cape, the average hourly wage for some low-skilled hospitality workers was reportedly about $20 per hour. Through May, domestic travel to Boston is up 8.1 percent year-over-year, while international travel is up 7.1 percent year-over-year. The outlook is positive, but there was some concern that escalating trade tensions could put a damper on international tourism to the United States.

Manufacturing and Related Services

Of nine firms we contacted this cycle, all but one reported higher sales. The one exception was a toy manufacturer and our contact said that the weakness was expected and attributable to the closure of a major toy retailer. While several contacts expressed concern about the effect of the trade war on sales, none reported any sales declines as a result. Four of our contacts said that costs were rising faster than sales revenue. Rising costs were attributed to raw material prices and a lack of trucking capacity. One contact in the container industry said that they had planned to increase output and hire additional workers but had not because of delays in the delivery of new capital equipment.

Software and Information Technology Services

Software and IT contacts in the First District continued to see activity expanding steadily. Revenue was up 3 percent to 10 percent year-over-year in the first half of the year. Several noted increases in margins, despite some seasonal sluggishness in demand. Contacts attributed growth in margins to internal productivity improvements. Firms across the sector expressed concern about acquiring and retaining talent in the tech industry. Further, contacts unanimously expressed anxiety about shocks to the broader economy, such as the potential for changes in trade, tariffs, immigration, war, and the stock market. Firms do not expect changes in headcounts or wages in the short-run, but some noted upcoming and potential capital investments. Overall, contacts felt positive about their progress thus far and optimistic about the rest of the year.

Commercial Real Estate

Commercial real estate market conditions were described as stable or improving in recent weeks. Although mixed across locations and property types, activity levels on balance were moderate to robust. Boston area contacts described the city’s office market as strong by historical standards, with low and falling vacancy rates, robust rents that increased slightly, and record-high sales prices for select buildings. Industrial leasing activity in the Boston area was seen as stable, although one contact reported that sales demand for warehouse space near Boston surged on the expectation of rising tenant demand. In Providence office leasing activity was steady at a moderate pace amid falling vacancy rates and rising rents, but industrial leasing activity was hampered by that market’s 1 percent vacancy rate. Construction activity across multiple property types maintained a strong pace in Boston and Providence, and increased further in the Portland area, but remained scant in the Hartford area. Contacts expect stable or improving commercial real estate activity moving forward, although most cited downside risks, such as rising interest rates, trade wars, and local labor shortages.

Residential Real Estate

Entering the summer, the residential real estate market in the First District continued to display a sellers’ market environment, highlighting high demand and increasing prices. Closed sales were down in all reporting areas but pending sales increased. Contacts cited insufficient inventory as the reason for the drop in sales but remained optimistic about the outlook on the heels of strong buyer demand and increasing new listings. A representative from Rhode Island noted that “Competition is fierce and buyers are finding themselves in a race to the finish line. Inventory is so tight that properties are being sold as soon as they go on the market, often in multiple bid situations.” Median sales price increased in all areas but Vermont. Contacts expressed concerns about the rapid price appreciation as many potential buyers were priced out of the market. Contacts said that borrowers, despite high prices and changes to the tax code, were still willing and able to finance purchases.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Summary of Economic Activity

Economic activity in the Second District has continued to expand at a moderate pace since the last report. The labor market has remained tight, while wage growth has mostly stayed steady. Input price increases have remained fairly widespread, and consumer price inflation continued to run a bit higher than earlier this year. Activity in the manufacturing and distribution industries grew at a fairly brisk pace, while growth in most service industries has been more subdued. Consumer spending has been steady to up slightly in recent weeks, with tourism remaining fairly robust. Housing markets have been somewhat stronger, on balance, while commercial real estate markets have generally softened. Finally, banks reported continued growth in loan demand and little change in delinquency rates.

Employment and Wages

The labor market has remained tight across the District. Businesses reported particular trouble filling senior positions and finding technically skilled workers, especially in IT. One business contact observed that almost all job-seekers are already employed. A New York City employment agency noted that clients have had difficulty adjusting to a city law prohibiting prospective employers from asking about salary history or using it as a guide to compensating new hires.

Hiring activity has been steady overall but mixed by industry. Business contacts in manufacturing, wholesale, retail, and finance reported a pickup in hiring activity, while those engaged in information and professional & business services noted some pullback in hiring. Contacts in the transportation industry noted further shrinkage in their workforce. Separately, a payroll service firm observed that job growth at small businesses has slowed somewhat recently. A major utility firm remarked that devoting more resources to vocational training and building relationships with local high schools and colleges, has made it easier for them to fill job openings.

Wage growth has generally remained steady overall but somewhat more brisk than last year. Wages were reported to be flat in the education & health and transportation sectors but rising in other sectors. The most widespread gains were reported in retail & wholesale trade and leisure & hospitality.

Prices
Businesses reported ongoing widespread hikes in input prices. The most widespread increases were in retail & wholesale trade, education & health, and real estate. Manufacturers and leisure & hospitality firms noted some diminution in input price pressures since the prior report. Contacts in almost all sectors anticipated further increases in the months ahead.

As for selling prices, wholesalers continued to report widespread price hikes, and businesses in leisure & hospitality and real estate noted some acceleration. Prices for Broadway theater tickets rose fairly sharply in June and were up nearly 15 percent from a year earlier. Retail contacts noted somewhat less discounting than a year ago, resulting in a modest hike in effective selling prices. Similarly, auto dealers reported some increase in average used car prices and fewer incentive offers on new vehicles. Businesses in other industries reported that prices were mostly stable. Looking ahead, a sizable share of firms in leisure & hospitality, wholesale trade, and real estate said they anticipate price hikes.

Consumer Spending

Retail sales were steady to up slightly in May and June running roughly on plan. A major retail chain noted that sales were on plan and up modestly from a year earlier, with New York City stores continuing to post relatively strong results, in good part driven by tourism.

New vehicle sales in upstate New York were soft in May and June, continuing to run short of year-earlier levels. Sales of used cars have been more robust and continued to rise modestly. Vehicle inventories remained at or above desired levels. Dealers indicated that retail and wholesale credit conditions remained in good shape.

Consumer confidence in the Middle Atlantic states (NY, NJ, PA) edged up to a cyclical high in June, led by an historically positive assessment of the job market.

Manufacturing and Distribution

Both manufacturers and wholesale distributors indicated that activity continued to expand at a brisk pace since the last report. Transportation firms reported more subdued growth. Regarding the near-term business outlook, contacts in the wholesale and transportation sectors continued to express widespread optimism. Manufacturers remained optimistic, on balance, but have become less so than earlier in the year. A number of manufacturing contacts remarked that tariffs have raised their costs. Moreover, uncertainty about future trade policy was cited as a major concern, particularly in parts of upstate New York, where there is substantial trade with Canada.

Services
Service-sector firms continued to report minimal to modest growth in activity. Contacts in professional & business services, education & health, and leisure & hospitality indicated modest growth, while those in the information industry continued to report flat activity. Looking ahead, leisure & hospitality businesses remained glum about near-term prospects, but contacts in the other service industries expressed fairly broad optimism.

Tourism has been fairly robust in recent weeks. New York City hotels reported a moderate pickup in both occupancy rates and revenues. Similarly, Broadway theaters reported a modest pickup in attendance and a marked pickup in revenues, which were up roughly 16 percent from a year earlier in May and June.

Real Estate and Construction

Housing markets across the District have been mixed but, on balance, somewhat stronger since the last report. Across much of the District, a limited supply of homes on the market has restrained sales activity and boosted prices. The market in the Buffalo metro area has been particularly robust, with strong demand and lean inventories driving up prices and producing many bidding wars. One exception to this trend has been the Manhattan co-op and condo market, where inventories have risen, sales activity has receded, and prices have been flat to modestly lower–partly attributed to some drop-off in investor purchases and foreign buyers. In and around New York City, the high end of the sales market continues to lag. One industry contact surmised that more limited deductibility of homeowner costs under the new tax law has been a factor in restraining demand.

The apartment rental market has been mixed. Effective rents are flat to down modestly across New York City, though demand for larger rental apartments has picked up recently–reportedly reflecting both rent reductions and a shift away from homeownership. In northern New Jersey, upstate New York, and the suburbs around New York City, however, demand has been robust and rents have continued to trend up moderately.

Commercial real estate markets have been steady to softer. Office availability rates were steady to up slightly, and asking rents continued to drift down across downstate New York, though they have risen modestly across northern New Jersey and upstate New York. The market for retail space continued to slacken, except in upstate New York, where vacancy rates were steady and rents were up moderately from a year ago. The industrial market continued to strengthen in northern New Jersey but has stabilized elsewhere across the District.

New multi-family construction starts have been steady to somewhat weaker. Office construction has picked up slightly across upstate New York but has remained moribund across the rest of the District. New industrial development has slowed as well. While new construction–both residential and commercial–has been sluggish, ongoing construction activity has remained strong.

Banking and Finance

Small to medium-sized banks in the District reported increased demand for consumer loans, residential mortgages, and commercial mortgages, but no change in demand for C&I loans and refinancing activity. Bankers reported tightening credit standards for commercial loans and mortgages. Banks noted an increase in the average deposit rate and narrowing loan spreads across all categories. Finally, banks reported lower delinquency rates for C&I loans but no change in delinquencies across all other loan categories.

Pubblicato in: Giustizia

Giappone. Giustiziati gli attentatori al sarin. La pena di morte.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-07-19.

Animali_che_Ridono__007_Gufo

A fine 2016 vi erano al mondo 7.442 miliardi di esseri umani, dei quali circa un miliardo vive nell’Occidente, intendendo con tale termine l’Europa, Russia e Turkia escluse, gli Stati Uniti ed il Canada.

L’Occidente così definito assomma quindi il 13.5% della popolazione mondiale.

Da un punto di vista meramente economico, se si considera il pil per potere di acquisto, l’Occidente rende ragione del 29.46% del pil ppa mondiale.

In altri termini, l’Occidente non è più ‘maggioranza‘ a livello mondiale, né per popolazione né per potenza economica.

Negli ultimi decenni è invalsa in Occidente la costumanza di abolire la pena di morte anche per i reati di maggior rilevanza penale e persino abrogandola dai codici militari di guerra.

È una posizione giuridica con una serie di elementi a supporto ed un’altrettanto lunga e motivata serie di ragioni contrarie.

Non si intende in questo momento entrare nel merito etico, morale e giuridico a favore o contro la legalizzazione della pena di morte: si constata soltanto che tranne che in Occidente essa è ancora in vigore in quasi tutto il resto del mondo.

Sarebbe incorretto indicare come ‘barbari‘ i paesi che la applicano: nulla e nessuno autorizza ad un simile giudizio. Ogni popolazione ed ogni stato ha una sua giurisprudenza ben consolidata da lunga tradizione, che meriterebbe a nostro commesso parere la massima considerazione.

Sono semplicemente due differenti modi di concepire un provvedimento giuridico. Per gli orientali sono ‘barbari‘ gli occidentali. Ma scambiarsi epiteti non concorre certo a risolvere le differenze di vedute.

*

Di questi giorni in Giappone è stata eseguita la sentenza capitale contro Shoko Asahara e sei altri complici, rei di aver effettuato un attacco terroristico utilizzando il sarin, un gas nervino, in cui morirono dodici persone ed un centinaio di altre furono coinvolte con severe conseguenze.

I media occidentali hanno commentato la notizia come se i giapponesi fossero ‘giuridicamente arretrati‘, ‘imbarbariti‘, ‘disumani‘ e così via. Tutelano l’assassino senza curarsi più di tanto delle vittime.

Questi sembrerebbero essere giudizi tranchant più di ordine politico che giuridico.

In ogni caso, l’abolizione della pena di morte è nel mondo appannaggio di una piccola minoranza.

Nota.

Nessuno si stupirebbe se entro tempi anche abbastanza brevi l’Occidente ripristinasse la pena di morte e la applicasse in modo estensivo.


La Stampa. 2018-07-06. Giustiziati in Giappone i sette responsabili dell’attacco col sarin nella metropolitana del 1995.

Shoko Asahara, fondatore e leader del cult Aim Shinrikyo, responsabile degli attacchi compiuti nella metropolitana di Tokyo nel 1995 col gas sarin, è stato giustiziato lo scorso venerdì, tramite impiccagione. Il 63enne Asahara, il cui vero nome era Chizuo Matsumoto, è il primo ad essere giustiziato di 13 persone, legate a una serie di crimini commessi dal culto della «Verità suprema» che idealizzava la fine del mondo. Oltre al fondatore Shoko Asahara, sono stati oggi giustiziati venerdì altri 6 componenti del culto Aum Shinrikyo, responsabili dell’attacco.  

Asahara era stato arrestato nel maggio del 1995, due mesi dopo l’attacco del 20 marzo compiuto nella metropolitana di Tokyo, che aveva provocato 13 morti e coinvolto almeno 6.200 persone. Inizialmente Asahara aveva negato di aver architettato l’operazione, ma durante il processo del 2004 ha ammesso di meritare la condanna per aver pianificato l’esecuzione dell’attacco. 

La sua condanna a morte era stata decisa definitivamente nel 2006. Le udienze dei membri del culto Aum Shinrikyo sono andate avanti per oltre 20 anni nelle aule dei tribunali giapponesi, con quasi 200 incriminazioni e 12 condanne a morte. 

Cnn. 2018-07-06. Japanese cult leader Shoko Asahara executed for Tokyo sarin attack

Seven members of the Aum Shinrikyo cult, which carried out the deadly 1995 sarin gas attack on the Tokyo subway, have been executed, Japanese officials said Friday.

Cult leader Shoko Asahara, whose real name is Chizuo Matsumoto, had been in prison for 22 years before his execution this week. The attack left more than a dozen people dead and thousands injured.

Twelve other members of Aum Shinrikyo were sentenced to death for their roles in the Tokyo attack. Asahara’s death sentence was finalized in 2006, according to public broadcaster NHK, but trials of his co-conspirators dragged on for a further 12 years.

Since those proceedings finished earlier this year, the days of the Aum Shinrikyo members had been numbered, even as opponents of the death penalty attempted to block the executions.

Asahara was one of seven members of the cult hanged this week. The others are Tomomasa Nakagawa, Tomomitsu Niimi, Kiyohide Hayakawa, Yoshihiro Inoue, Seiichi Endo and Masami Tsuchiya, according to Japanese Justice Minister Yoko Kawakami.

Six other people are still sentenced to die in connection to the 1995 attack and other Aum Shinrikyo crimes. The date of their executions is not known.

Executions in Japan are done in secret, with no advance warning given to the prisoner, their family or legal representatives, according to Amnesty International. Prisoners often only learn hours before that they are to be killed.

Shizue Takahashi, a victims group representative and widow of a Toyko Metro employee who died in the sarin attack, told reporters she was “surprised” by the sudden execution.

“When I think of those who died because of them, it was a pity (my husband’s) parents and my parents could not hear the news of this execution,” she said. “I wanted (cult members) to confess more about the incident, so it’s a pity that we cannot hear their account anymore.”

In a statement Friday, Amnesty said the execution of Asahara and other Aum Shinrikyo members would not deliver justice for the Tokyo attack.

“The attacks carried out by Aum were despicable and those responsible deserve to be punished. However, the death penalty is never the answer,” said Hiroka Shoji, East Asia researcher at Amnesty International.

“Justice demands accountability but also respect for everyone’s human rights. The death penalty can never deliver this as it is the ultimate denial of human rights.”

Doomsday beliefs

Asahara founded Aum Shinrikyo in 1984 and quickly attracted thousands of disciples, combining forecasts of a coming apocalypse — which would come after the US attacked Japan and turned it into a nuclear wasteland — with traditional religious teachings and new age tactics.

Many of Asahara’s followers were highly educated scientists and engineers, who helped bring in huge amounts of money to the cult’s coffers.

As the cult grew, the families of members began to raise the alarm, and complaints of brainwashing and abuse within Aum Shinrikyo became more common.

Despite this, few would have predicted what was to come, and the cult shot to global notoriety with the March 1995 attack on the Tokyo subway, when members of Aum Shinrikyo released sarin gas on carriages full of commuters during rush hour. The attack killed 13 people and injured 5,500.

Asahara and dozens of his followers were arrested in the months that followed, after police raids across the country.

At a press conference Friday, former Aum Shinrikyo spokesman Fumihiro Joyu said he carried a “heavy shared responsibility” for the group’s crimes.

“I would like to apologize to the victims,” he said. “I would like to work on compensation and to make sure such crimes never happen again.”

Aleph, a successor group to Aum Shinrikyo, is still involved in a court case over settlements to the victims of the 1995 and other attacks. Joyu left Aleph in 2006.

He said that more than 10 years after he left the cult, he had “no special feeling” for Asahara, but had still been somewhat nervous about the potential repercussions for criticizing him in public. With Asahara’s execution, he hoped this fear would go away.

Deadly cult

Aum Shinrikyo’s killings began in November 1989, when lawyer Tsutsumi Sakamoto — who was working on a class action case against the cult — was brutally murdered along with his wife and child. The killing was eventually linked to the cult.

Prosecutors said cult members entered the Sakamotos’ home as they slept, injected them with lethal doses of potassium chloride and strangled them.

Sakamoto’s murder and the growing clamor from cult members’ families caused increased attention from the authorities, and Aum Shinrikyo began preparing for the end.

At a sheep farm in rural Western Australia and other properties, cult scientists began testing sarin while others synthesized the VX nerve agent and launched a failed attempt to manufacture automatic rifles.

On June 27, 1994, seven people were killed and more than 500 hospitalized after Aum Shinrikyo released sarin gas from a truck by driving slowly around an apartment complex in Matsumoto, Nagano prefecture. Another victim died in 2008.

Subway attack

The Matsumoto attack was a warm up to the main event, which began almost eight months later on March 20, 1995, according to a report by the Federation of American Scientists.

Five Aum Shinrikyo members boarded subway cars on three different lines in central Tokyo during rush hour, carrying plastic bags filled with sarin. They punctured the bags with the sharpened tips of theirs umbrellas and left them on baggage racks or the floor to seep the deadly gas into the carriages.

The trains were scheduled to arrive at central Kasumigaseki station within four minutes of each other, and the cult hoped not only to kill everyone on board, but also use the trains to deliver the gas to a massive interchange used by thousands of passengers at a time.

Fortunately, mistakes made in developing the sarin and its delivery method meant the attack was far less effective than intended, and the group only succeeded in killing 12 and injuring 5,500 people. Another victim died later.

According to the FAS report, chemical weapons experts estimate that “tens of thousands could have easily been killed” if the attack had been carried out correctly.

Arrest and trial

Dozens of Aum Shinrikyo members were arrested after months of raids by police on hundreds of locations across Japan.

Asahara himself was arrested in May 1995, and indicted on 17 charges ranging from murder to illegal production of weapons and drugs.

His trial — and appeals process — took years to complete, and gripped Japan, as police continued to seek other cult members linked to the Tokyo and Matsumoto attacks.

In late 1996, Ashara admitted responsibility for the sarin attack but said he was not personally involved in the crime, saying he had been “instructed by God” to shoulder the blame. At the same time, he warned lawyers they would die if they continued questioning Aum Shinrikyo members.

After a trial that lasted eight years, Asahara was found guilty of masterminding the attack and sentenced to death in 2004. By 2006, he had exhausted the appeals process.

His execution was delayed due to ongoing cases against his co-conspirators, the last of whom was arrested in 2012.

Aum Shinrikyo split into Hikari no Wa and Aleph in 2007, and the latter group has apologized for the Tokyo attack, which it blames on “top members of then Aum Shinrikyo.” The two groups have around 150 and 1,500 followers respectively, according to Japanese media.

Government surveillance of Hikari no Wa was lifted last year, but Aleph remains under official scrutiny.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Cina. Ceec 16 + 1. L’Occidente inizia a preoccuparsi.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-07-19.

Ceec. 16 + 1. 002. Bassa Risoluzione

Nell’attesa che, a Dio piacendo, l’Unione Europea si liberi di Mr Juncker e di Mr Tusk, e magari anche della ingombrante presenza di Frau Merkel, la Cina prosegue imperterrita la sua penetrazione dell’Europa dell’est.

Questo incipit apparentemente tranchant constata come gli umori attuali del corpo elettorale si siano distanziati da detti personaggi in modo così marcato da renderli sicuramente legalmente in opera, ma screditati politicamente: rappresentano sé stessi, non l’Unione Europea.

China’s European Diplomacy

What Is China’s Objective With the 2018 16+1 Summit?

Cina. Ulteriore potenziamento del Ceec, Europa dell’est.

Cina e Slovenia. Laboratorio di supercalcolo in Ljubljana.

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«Sofia, Bulgaria hosted the annual China-CEEC think tank conference on June 29 under the theme of “Advancing 16+1 Cooperation Platform – the Way Ahead.” The conference was part of the official calendar of events of the 7th CEEC-China 16+1 Summit»

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«The 16+1 was established in 2012 as a multilateral platform facilitating cooperation between China and 16 Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC).»

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«In recent years, the platform’s summits have attracted a lot of attention, especially in Western Europe»

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«The intensifying level of engagement between the 16 countries in the CEE region and China has considerably alarmed Brussels and Berlin»

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«Many Western European observers and policymakers have raised concerns about the potential risks of growing Chinese presence in Eastern Europe, claiming that Beijing’s major interest in engaging with the region is a part of its long-term strategy to undermine EU unity»

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La dirigenza dell’Unione Europea ed i capi dei Governi delle nazioni più ricche stanno guardando con crescente apprensione il consolidarsi dei rapporti commerciali della Cina con i paesi dell’est europeo. Temono, a ragione, che alla lunga il baricentro politico ed economico si sposti verso la Cina.

Questi timori stanno aumentando giorno per giorno, e più che a ragione. Ma nella realtà dei fatti la Cina, nel costituire il Ceec, il 16 + 1, ha occupato uno spazio lasciato vuoto dall’Unione.

L’errore di maggiore portata è stato quello di voler imporre la propria Weltanschauung  a paesi che proprio non ne volevano sapere.

EU apre causa legale contro la Polonia.

Ottimo uno Zollverein, ottima un’Unione Europea di nazioni sovrane ma collegate da vincoli economici, pessima l’idea di voler trasformare questa Unione negli Stati Uniti di Europa a guida liberal e socialista. In casa propria la gente vorrebbe potersi gestire a piacere, secondo diritto e tradizioni. In fondo, gran parte del contenzioso con il Gruppo Visegrad e, più in generale, con il Ceec è ascrivibile a questo tentativo cruento, fallito sotto il peso di un Elettorato che ha mutato orientamenti.

Di non minore importanza è il fallimento economico dell’Unione Europea.

A costo di essere estremamente riduttivi, l’Unione Europea ha destinato ingenti risorse al mantenimento del welfare ed a quelle politiche di ‘integrazione’ che alla resa dei fatti non generano reddito, mentre la Cina fornisce investimenti per la messa in opera di infrastrutture, generatrici di reddito indotto.

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Questa Unione Europea si è già parzialmente rinnovata nel Consiglio Europeo, suo sommo decisore politico, ed il risultato dell’ultimo Consiglio Europeo è sotto gli occhi di tutti: la componente avversa l’attuale dirigenza non è ancora sufficientemente forte da poter governare, ma lo è abbastanza da bloccare le iniziative degli attuali dirigenti,

Sarebbe da facili profeti il constatare che con una guida politica come l’attuale l’Unione Europea andrà incontro a fatti disgregativi.


The Diplomat. 2018-07-04. What’s Next for China’s 16+1 Platform in Central and Eastern Europe?

Sofia, Bulgaria hosted the annual China-CEEC think tank conference on June 29 under the theme of “Advancing 16+1 Cooperation Platform – the Way Ahead.” The conference was part of the official calendar of events of the 7th CEEC-China 16+1 Summit that will take place in the Bulgarian capital on July 7.

The 16+1 was established in 2012 as a multilateral platform facilitating cooperation between China and 16 Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC). In recent years, the platform’s summits have attracted a lot of attention, especially in Western Europe. The intensifying level of engagement between the 16 countries in the CEE region and China has considerably alarmed Brussels and Berlin. Many Western European observers and policymakers have raised concerns about the potential risks of growing Chinese presence in Eastern Europe, claiming that Beijing’s major interest in engaging with the region is a part of its long-term strategy to undermine EU unity. This is by no means a new perspective, as these kinds of concerns have been raised multiple times since the platform’s establishment.

Meanwhile, the international situation has changed significantly during the last six years. China under Xi Jinping has changed its foreign policy course, intensifying its international presence in many parts of the world. The promotion of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as China’s major foreign policy tool has been accompanied by the advancement of local regional initiatives, such as the 16+1 platform. Simultaneously, China’s new international behavior has become one of the major points of contention among observers and policymakers looking at Chinese presence in places like Australia, New Zealand, and Czech Republic, just to name a few.

What is important to note is the emergence of certain trends highlighted by a number of experts during the Sofia conference. One of the dominant themes was the anticipation of some kind of breakthrough regarding the broader direction of China-EU relations and a need for the CEEC to find its “own voice” when it comes to bringing forward a desirable model of cooperation. This does not imply accepting Chinese investment and engagement without critical assessment, but it points toward a more fact-based approach to managing the region’s relations with Beijing. Uncertainty as one of the dominant themes of the current international situation and its impact on China-CEE-Western EU states trilateral relationship was said to be included in the draft version of the 16+1 Sofia Summit Declaration to be published after the main summit on July 7.

The opinions articulated by many experts during the 16+1 think tank conference in Sofia seem to present a counterpoint to the dominant Western European narrative about growing Chinese influence in the CEE and the region’s alleged inability to critically assess this new development. Experts from the region do have insights into the complicated nature of China-CEE relations. A lack of critical perspective is far from the biggest problem. Already, existing cases of business deals and political cooperation between China and some individuals or groups within CEEC should be considered more alarming. In other words, it is elite capture that should generate worry, rather than the general existence of the 16+1 platform itself.

The example of Ye Jianming, Czech President Milos Zeman’s economic adviser, is a case in point. The former CEO of Chinese energy giant CEFC has been under investigation in China for a couple of months now. A controversial figure himself, he was accused in the West of having ties to Chinese military intelligence. In China, he has been accused of having committed “economic crimes,” meaning high-level corruption. Although the investigation is still ongoing, it seems alarming enough to conclude that this is precisely the kind of relationship that should be looked out for when it comes to future projects between individuals or institutions from the CEE region and China.

Increased Eastern European interest in fostering ties with China could be seen as a purely pragmatic attempt to diversify the region’s international trade ties. Simultaneously, from the perspective of Berlin and Brussels, this new trend overlaps with the anti-progressive political turn among some Eastern European nations, most notably Poland and Hungary. While concerns about the region’s populist turn are indeed rooted in reality, there seems to be little evidence that this development is in any way related to the growing Chinese presence in the region.

It is crucial to bear in mind the way in which many CEE states might perceive Brussels and Berlin’s anxiety as somehow exaggerated. Chinese economic engagement in the region still has been marginal compared to other Asian investors, like Japan and South Korea, not to mention Western investors. Despite growing tensions, EU remains the most important political and economic partner of CEEC. 

Nevertheless, Berlin has objected many times to the further development of the 16+1 framework. Most recently, German Chancellor Angela Merkel raised the topic during her visit to China in late May 2018. Shortly after the end of her visit, Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi met with his German counterpart in Berlin, where he suggested that Germany would be welcome to participate trilaterally in the 16+1 platform’s activities.

How could that change the decision-making processes and the bargaining power of each CEE state involved in the platform? Could it become a tool ensuring more accountability and transparency within its work? Or would it rather help to benefit the two largest partners, namely China and Germany? Declarations about China’s willingness to combine economic complementary advantages of China and Germany together with the CEE region’s developmental needs seem reasonable, yet their implementation might prove difficult. The same applies to finding a common ground to even start discussing certain problematic issues trilaterally.

Although the overall feeling of deepening divisions between Eastern and Western Europe and a general crisis of both EU as an institution and its transatlantic relations were all evident throughout the conference, constructive proposals for future development of the platform were also brought forward. But given the importance of the international environment, what might eventually be more important is the upcoming China-EU summit in late July. Brussels and Berlin expect Beijing to accommodate their anxieties, which are partially reasonable, but are also rooted in many misperceptions on the part of the EU. Most importantly, the EU should critically assess the overestimation of the scale of Chinese engagement in the CEEC. This does not mean that the issue of the political implications of Chinese presence in the region should be overlooked. It is not a non-issue, yet it should be assessed on the basis of a truly fact-based discussion, ensuring the agency of all parties involved.

The Diplomat. 2018-07-04. What Is China’s Objective With the 2018 16+1 Summit?

Ahead of this July’s 16+1 summit in Bulgaria, Chinese officials are busy trying to sell the idea that Beijing’s outreach work in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is about “win-win” cooperation. The summit, launched in Warsaw in 2012, brings together 16 CEE countries, including 11 EU member states, with high-ranking Chinese officials, ostensibly to foster economic cooperation and investment. Many leaders, pundits, and experts, however, fear that the Chinese-driven initiative is nothing more than a Trojan horse, threatening to undermine EU norms, disadvantage Western investors, and spread corrupt development practices amongst vulnerable democracies. But are they right or is this just European Sinophobia?

Though Beijing has been playing down the 16+1 initiative as a loose multilateral framework for cooperation between CEE and China, the reality of the situation falls somewhat short of even such understated rhetoric. A more honest depiction of the format, however, is the grouping together of bilateral partnerships through which China can more easily field competition for Chinese bank loans.

By its own admission, the 16+1 seeks to foster economic cooperation in the infrastructure sector. In other words, the initiative serves as a platform through which Beijing can implement Xi Jinping’s signature global infrastructure push, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The downside is that in place of bargaining collectively, as countries might be able to do through the EU, the 16+1 framework fosters competition in Beijing’s favor and reduces CEE countries to passive recipients of agendas and policies formulated by Chinese officials. Of course, this set up isn’t particularly healthy for the 16+1 countries themselves, but it’s also causing consternation and worry further afield in Western European capitals.

For one thing, in CEE countries and within the context of the Belt and Road more generally, Beijing tends to invest in sectors that are critical for national security, such as transport and energy infrastructure. For instance, in this year’s 16+1 summit host country, Bulgaria, the China National Nuclear Corporation has confirmed its interest in working on the Belene nuclear power plant project. Long tarnished by accusations of corruption, the Belene project has been under a construction moratorium since 2012 and has been described by Prime Minister Boyko Borissov as “the corruption scheme of the century.” Now, six years later, Borissov has made a complete about-face, and President Rumen Radev – who has been known to clash with the prime minister – has also expressed his support for the project.

Given the history of scandals surrounding Belene, it is unclear to many observers why the government has now decided to revive the project. The fact that Sofia is embracing the Chinese at the same time it’s breaking ties with AES and ContourGlobal, two American power companies responsible for a fifth of Bulgaria’s energy production, did little to assuage fears that the country is tacking east.

Of course, security-related concerns are not the only 16+1 related problem raising eyebrows in Brussels. The growing influence that Beijing is fostering through the initiative also threatens to undermine the very norms and values the EU seeks to foster in newly joined and aspiring member states.

Already, the grouping has triggered a race to the bottom for Beijing’s affections. Czech President Miloš Zeman has gone so far as to offer his country as an “unsinkable aircraft carrier for China in Europe,” while Hungary’s Viktor Orbán’s attitude toward Beijing might be described as positively fawning. Inevitably, this lust for economic attention from Beijing turns into subservience when it comes to Beijing’s political demands. In 2016, CEE diplomats insisted on watering down an already vague EU statement related to China’s illegal action in the South China Sea. In 2017, Hungary refused to sign a letter condemning the torture of detained lawyers in China, while Greece, a country that has also received considerable investment from Beijing, derailed an EU statement at the UN on China’s human rights record.

Aside from flying in the face of European values like respect for human rights, such acquiescence also breeds disunity at a time when the EU can suffer it least. Despite Beijing’s protestations to the contrary, a divided and politically weak EU clearly serves China’s strategic ambitions in Europe.

Unfortunately, the alliance of some CEE countries with Chinese political values is not purely a question of greed. For leaders like Orbán, who seeks to establish an “illiberal bloc” in the midst of Europe, Beijing’s brand of state capitalist authoritarianism provides a welcome model. Even CEE candidate countries like Serbia, which still harbor pro-EU political ambitions, find something attractive in the economic model that Beijing offers.

After all, while EU funds come with strong transparency and accountability requirements, loans from Chinese-controlled state banks are free from such cumbersome attachments. And while countries like Serbia are making slow progress toward EU membership requirements, corruption remains endemic. Because of Beijing’s “no strings attached” policies, loans from Chinese banks are comparatively easy to funnel into local patronage networks. Next to paperwork-heavy EU funds, they are a vastly more attractive prospect for local elites.

Beijing’s deepening footprint in the CEE region thus threatens to roll back progress toward transparency and good development practice that has hitherto been successfully sponsored by the EU. And not surprisingly, this growing preference for illiberal and corrupt practices has come at the expense of Western investors. In non-EU 16+1 countries, Beijing can attach conditions to its loans that require the participation of Chinese companies in projects, but even in EU member states, countries are flouting regulation in order to privilege easy Chinese capital.

Of course, if you listen to Chinese officials like Foreign Minister Wang Yi, you’ll hear a different story. His “win-win,” “mutual development” rhetoric is appealing, but it’s hard to see how the initiative outlined above can, as he claims, “facilitate the European integration progress.”

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo

Rai. Eletto il CdA.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2048-07-18.

Rai 001

La Rai è da sempre l’ente pubblico più esecrato e deprecato, a partire dal canone da moltissimi percepito come iniquo, per proseguire alla pletora di dipendenti – 11,635 nel 2014 -, un fatturato di 2.8 miliardi nel 2016 ed un utile netto di 14.3 milioni nel 2017.

Per decenni è stata feudo delle sinistre, e questo sarebbe ancora il meno.

La stragrande maggioranza dei giornalisti e degli anchorman è tediosamente liberal e ìschierati a sinistra da far rimpiangere la Pravda di Brèžnev.

Per decenni ha svolto una smaccata campagna elettorale liberal senza che nessuno avesse potuto dire nulla. La loro faziosità era semplicemente nauseante.

Anzi, a loro dire, erano viole mammole, candidi gigli in odore di santità.

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Dal nuovo consiglio di amministrazione ci aspettiamo soltanto una cosa.

Che epuri gli organici, specie quelli dei telegiornali e dei programmi di attualità, da tutti coloro che abbiano attivamente partecipato alla propaganda liberal e di sinistra.

Per cercare di essere chiari, li vogliamo vedere licenziati.


Corriere. 2018-07-18. Rai, eletti i consiglieri. Il Senato sceglie due donne. E per l’a.d. incarico ai «cacciatori di teste»

Borioni e Coletti scelte a Palazzo Madama, alla Camera eletti Igor De Biasio e Gianpaolo Rossi

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Beatrice Coletti e Rita Borioni sono i due componenti del Consiglio di amministrazione della Rai eletti da palazzo Madama. Coletti è una manager con esperienza di amministratore delegato e direttrice di canali televisivi. Sulla piattaforma Rousseau è stata la più votata dai militanti 5 stelle. Invece la ricercatrice Borioni, ex viceresponsabile del dipartimento Cultura e informazione del Partito democratico, è stata confermata nella governance con il sostegno di Pd, Forza Italia e Fratelli d’Italia. Alla Camera sono stati eletti Igor De Biasio e Gianpaolo Rossi. De Biasio, in quota Lega, tra i fondatori del Movimento Giovani Padani, ha ottenuto 312 voti, mentre Rossi, vicino a Fratelli d’Italia, ne ha incassatti 166. De Biasio è figlio dell’ex sindaco o meglio «borgomastro» di Biassono, storica roccaforte leghista in Brianza.

Due voti a Santoro

Nel votare per i due membri del cda Rai di competenza del Senato, a Palazzo Madama hanno raccolto consensi – oltre ovviamente alle elette Beatrice Coletti e Rita Borioni con 133 e 101 preferenze rispettivamente – altri cinque candidati. Sono Giovanni Minoli (11 voti), Sebastiano Roccaro (5 voti), il conduttore Michele Santoro (2 voti), Giuseppe Rossodivita (un voto) e la giornalista del Tg1 Claudia Mazzola (un voto). Le schede bianche sono state 21, le nulle 31.

I cacciatori di teste sulle tracce dell’ad

Se la partita del cda si può considerare quasi chiusa, rimane ancora definire invece il prossimo amministratore delegato. Secondo l’Adnkronos il ministero dell’Economia avrebbe affidato la ricerca a una società di cacciatori di teste. Tra i nomi contattati ci sarebbe anche quello di Raffaele Annecchino, executive vice president di Viacom. La sua nomina però potrebbe essere ostacolata dal tetto di 240mila euro lordi l’anno previsto per legge per i dirigenti pubblici.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Senza categoria, Unione Europea

Francia. Il trono di Macron inizia a sfaldarsi. – Bva

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-07-18.

Parigi. Arco di Trionfo. 001

Per oltre cinquanta anni in Francia la destra francese rappresentata dal Front National, che di recente ha mutato denominazione in  Rassemblement National, è stata accuratamente isolata politicamente con una sorta di arco costituzionale. Anche se sia diventata la seconda forza politica nazionale in termini percentuali, in tutti i ballottaggi ai quali si era presentato, sinistre e destre si votavano vicendevolmente pur di escluderli.

Questa conventio ad excludendum ha funzionato più che bene, unitamente al sistema elettorale francese in due turni, l’ultimo dei quali è sostanzialmente un ballottaggio. Così, a fronte di un 30% dei voti, FN ha ottenuto solo 7 / 577 deputati, 2 /348 senatori, 17 / 74 eurodeputati. Nelle elezioni regionali del 2016 FN ha conquistato 333 / 1,758 seggi.

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Questa situazione sembrerebbe iniziare a mutare, per svariati motivi.

– Il partito socialista francese è crollato da quasi maggioranza all’attuale 8%, generando una costellazione di formazioni politiche di ideologia socialista ma fortemente conflittuali, per lo più su base personale.

– In risposta, molti ambienti politici e sociali hanno generato lo scorso anno il partito En Marche!, guidato da Mr Macron, che ottenne il 24% dei consensi al primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali del 2017, che poi vinse grazia al massiccio voto delle sinistre.

– Alle elezioni presidenziali e politiche del 2017 i Les Républicains, LR subirono una severa sconfitta elettorale, perdendo la gara per la presidenza ed ottenendo solo 98 / 577 deputati.. Si prese una buona rivincita al senato, grazie al sistema elettorale ad hoc, ottenendo 146 / 348 senatori. LR perse 87 seggi in parlamento e scese dal 38% al 15 – 22%.

– I concetti di ‘sinistra’ e ‘destra’ stanno perdendo i loro contenuti ideologici, ed i problemi economici sono diventati prioritari su quelli ideologici.

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Ma nessuna realtà umana è immutabile, specie poi la politica.

La destra francese ha un potente alleato in Sorella Morte, che con grande puntualità e precisione falcidia i rancorosi vegliardi che si adattarono a votare Mr Macron pur di fare un dispetto al Front National. Muoiono e le generazioni subentranti sembrerebbero essere di parere alquanto differente.

Adesso sembrerebbe che un’alleanza elettorale tra Les Républicains e Rassemblement National potrebbe prendere corpo, almeno per le prossime elezioni europee del prossimo anno.

Chiaramente, una cosa sono i numeri, peraltro indispensabili, ed un’altra è la volontà politica.

Di certo però l’Elettorato potrebbe apprezzare una simile coalizione, che metterebbe fuori gioco le sinistre ed il partito En Marche!.

Se così fosse, la Francia volterebbe pagina politica ed economica e, verosimilmente, in modo irreversibile.

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2018-07-17__Francia__001

Il sondaggio Bva evidenzia, in sintesi:

2018-07-17__Francia__002

– Il 37 % dei francesi si colloca politicamente a destra, il 36% a sinistra.

– il 65% dei francesi potrebbe votare una coalizione di destra per le elezioni europee, ma solo per quelle.

– Se questi sono i dati numerici, le valutazioni politiche degli Elettori sono fluide:

    → I francesi “piuttosto di destra” si distinguono per una maggiore vicinanza ideologica a La République en Marche!

    → I repubblicani non trovano un’eco di maggioranza tra i francesi che dicono di essere “molto di destra”.

    → La linea politica della RN e di Debout la France è respinta dalla “destra piuttosto”.

    → Tra le personalità i cui sostenitori si appoggiano “alla destra”, Marion Maréchal e Nicolas Dupont-Aignan appaiono piuttosto unificanti.

    → Mentre Laurent Wauquiez ha una posizione più centrale sulla destra, il suo profilo non appare essere molto unificante.

2018-07-17__Francia__003

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Ci si rende perfettamente conto che di qui alle elezioni europee correranno undici mesi, durante i quali molte cose impreviste ed imprevedibili potrebbero accadere.

Tuttavia questi risultati numerici dovrebbe dare da pensare alla realtà francese che sta mutando.

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La Bva ha rilasciato recentemente il seguente report:

L’union des droites, avenir crédible ou impasse politique ? – Décrypter les mécanismes de l’opinion – Sondage BVA pour L’Obs

37% des Français se positionnent politiquement à droite : la majorité d’entre eux pourrait voter pour une liste d’union de la droite aux élections européennes (65%)…mais l’intérêt pour des listes d’union serait surtout ponctuel.

– 83% des Français peuvent se positionner politiquement sur l’axe gauche-droite : 36% à gauche, 10% au centre et 37% à droite. A l’inverse, 15% se disent ni de gauche ni de droite et 2% ne se prononcent pas.

– Parmi les 37% des Français se positionnant politiquement à droite : 14% se placent plutôt à droite, 14% à droite et 9% très à droite.

– 65% des Français se positionnant à droite pourraient voter pour une liste d’union de la droite aux élections européennes 2019, rassemblant des candidats Les Républicains, Debout la France et du Rassemblement national.

– Uniquement 32% des sympathisants de la droite soutiendraient des listes d’union « quelles que soient les élections » et le soutien à cette possibilité varie très fortement selon la position politique, de 60% chez les « très à droite » à seulement 35% chez les « à droite » et 12% chez les « plutôt à droite ».

Verbatim de la communauté POP by BVA : «Je ne pourrais pas voter pour une telle association qui n’aura le nom d’union que par la circonstance. Ce serait plutôt une liste d’union d’intérêts personnels »

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Peu  de partis ou de personnalités politiques apparaissent susceptibles de rassembler l’ensemble des sympathisants de la droite

– Les Français « plutôt à droite » se distinguent par une plus grande proximité idéologique à La République en Marche !

– Les Républicains ne trouvent pas d’écho majoritaire chez les Français se disant « très à droite »

– La ligne politique du RN et de Debout la France est rejetée auprès des « plutôt à droite »

– Parmi les personnalités dont les soutiens penchent « très  à droite », Marion Maréchal et Nicolas Dupont-Aignan apparaissent assez rassembleurs

– Si Laurent Wauquiez dispose d’une position plus centrale à droite, son profil est peu fédérateur

Verbatim de la communauté POP by BVA : «Il est difficile aujourd’hui de cerner la droite, le RPR a éclaté et ne s’est toujours pas trouvé, DLF balbutie et fait un peu la girouette, le RN n’a rien à envier au FN, et la faiblesse de son programme reste nette. Alors comment s’y retrouver ? Pour le moment je pense que je n’en ai même pas envie. La main sur le cœur, ils sont tous pour « une France », mais leurs chemins divergent.»

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Au-delà d’un certain socle commun, des divergences de position sur des questions-clefs (économie libérale, Euro, Union européenne) et sur certaines valeurs (égalité, solidarité, tolérance, laïcité)

– Des positions plutôt proches sur les sujets sociétaux (identité française, protection sociale), plus éloignées sur l’économie libérale.

– Des opinions plus clivées sur les questions européennes, l’attachement à l’Euro et à l’Union européenne différant fortement selon les segments de la droite.

– Le Travail, la Justice, la Famille, la Liberté, l’Autorité, le Mérite et le Patriotisme, valeurs transverses à l’ensemble des Français se positionnant à droite.

– L’Autorité, le Mérite et le Patriotisme font figure de « marqueurs de droite », l’importance qui leur est accordée à droite différant significativement de celle exprimée par les Français.

– L’Egalité, la Solidarité, la Tolérance et la Laïcité apparaissent comme des valeurs moins consensuelles à droite.

Verbatim de la communauté POP by BVA : «Liberté, responsabilité, justice, famille et amitié, respect et politesse. L’autorité est nécessaire et ne doit pas se discuter, le patriotisme est un plaisir personnel léger qui s’applique aux différents cercles d’appartenance de chacun pour moi, le monde, l’Europe, ma région. Oui à l’égalité dans la différence et un non puissant et définitif à l’égalitarisme des jaloux et des loosers. La laïcité oui dans le sens de la liberté de penser offerte à chacun.»