Pubblicato in: Brasile, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Brasile. Covid-19 spinge la disoccupazione al 12.6%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-06-02.

Brazil 001

«Brazil’s unemployment rate rose to its highest in just over a year due to the coronavirus crisis»

«The 12.6% headline jobless rate in Latin America’s largest economy in the three months to April was the highest since early last year»

«The data comes a day after separate figures showed Brazil lost a record 860,503 formal jobs in April, the biggest monthly fall in employment since comparable records began in 1992»

«Thursday’s figures from statistics agency IBGE showed that 89.2 million people were in work, down almost 5 million or 5.2% from the preceding three-month period, both record declines»

«That pushed the labor force participation rate down to a record low 51.6%, with a record 70.9 million people now out of the workforce»

«The number of Brazilians officially out of work stands at 12.8 million, and the number of underemployed rose 8.7% to a record 28.7 million»

«The underemployment rate jumped to 25.6%, also a record»

* * * * * * *

Brazil registers record 26,417 coronavirus cases in a day: ministry

«Brazil reported a daily record of 26,417 new coronavirus cases on Thursday, according to the Health Ministry, bringing its total tally to 438,238, second only to the United States in confirmed cases.»

*

Brazil mulls extending aid program for informal workers, but lowering payments

«Brazil’s government is in talks with Congress about extending the emergency program to provide informal workers hit by the coronavirus crisis with three monthly payments of 600 reais ($112), but at a reduced level, Treasury Secretary Mansueto Almeida said on Thursday.

Not only will any future payments likely be lower, those eligible for them should be the poorest and lowest-paid people, Almeida said in an interview with GloboNews.

The program in its current guise will cost the Treasury 151.5 billion reais ($28.2 billion), according to the latest projections from government officials, up from 98.2 billion reais originally, then a revised 123.9 billion reais.»

*

La crisi indotta dalla epidemia di Covid-19 ha colpito il Brasile duramente, anche se sfasata rispetto ai paesi europei.

Oltre ai cali produttivi dovuti al lockdown, si sono aggiunti quelli dovuti al calo delle esportazioni.

Notevole è lo forzo di dare sovvenzioni statali anche ai lavoratori ‘informali’.

Difficile vedere una possibilità di ripresa in tempi rapidi.

*


Brazil unemployment rises to 12.6%, record 4.9 million people leave workforce.

Brazil’s unemployment rate rose to its highest in just over a year due to the coronavirus crisis, official figures showed on Thursday, as a record number of people left the workforce, pushing labor force participation to an all-time low.

Although the 12.6% unemployment rate was lower than economists had expected, other indicators such as the number of people leaving the workforce and the underemployment rate point to a weaker labor market than the headline figure suggests.

The 12.6% headline jobless rate in Latin America’s largest economy in the three months to April was the highest since early last year, but less than the median forecast in a Reuters poll of 13.3%.

The data comes a day after separate figures showed Brazil lost a record 860,503 formal jobs in April, the biggest monthly fall in employment since comparable records began in 1992.

Thursday’s figures from statistics agency IBGE showed that 89.2 million people were in work, down almost 5 million or 5.2% from the preceding three-month period, both record declines.

That pushed the labor force participation rate down to a record low 51.6%, with a record 70.9 million people now out of the workforce.

“The already weak labor market softened further in April … and is expected to weaken visibly more in coming months,” wrote Alberto Ramos, head of Latin American research at Goldman Sachs, in a note on Thursday.

“The unemployment rate would have spiked more were it not for the significant decline in labor force participation,” he said.

The number of Brazilians officially out of work stands at 12.8 million, and the number of underemployed rose 8.7% to a record 28.7 million, IBGE said. The underemployment rate jumped to 25.6%, also a record.

Central bank president Roberto Campos Neto said he expects the unemployment rate will eventually rise above 15%, while economists at Citi reckon it will approach 18%.

Pubblicato in: Brasile, Cina, Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime, Stati Uniti

Cina, Brasile, Occidente e petrolio. Si razionalizzi che il mercato è variato.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-05-17.

2020-05-19__Brasile 001

Nelle ultime settimane il mondo politico ed economico si è focalizzato sul crollo del prezzo dei prodotti petroliferi, discesa che stenta a far ristabilire valori che non danneggino troppo i produttori.

Il calo è conseguente ad un crollo della domanda, fatto che ha comportato una significativa riduzione delle quantità estratte.

Ma nella visione provinciale delle economie occidentalizzate è stato quasi automatico concludere che il calo della domanda occidentale fosse esteso a tutto l’orbe terracqueo. E questo è un severo errore di valutazione.

Se sicuramente la quota del mercato petrolifero in occidente è significativamente rilevante, altrettanto sicuramente la Cina è il maggiore importatore di fossili estrattivi.

Se è vero che l’epidemia da coronavirus ha determinato un grande calo della produzione cinese, sarebbe altrettanto vero constatare come la Cina si stia riprendendo economicamente in modo molto più veloce delle attese. Ma non esiste ripresa senza ripresa delle importazioni energetiche.

Cina. Aprile. Vendite al dettaglio risalite dal -20.5% di febbraio agli attuali -7.5%.

Cina. Aprile. Produzione Industriale Annualizzata +3.9%.

Cina. Innalzati i dazi sui tubi di acciaio EU ed USA.

Crollano Germania, Francia e Regno Unito, mentre la Cina vola.

Cina. Marzo. Import petrolifero. Arabia Saudita -1.6%, Russia +31%.

Daimler, Mercedes Benz, ha ripreso la produzione in Cina.

Exxon Mobil Corp e la Cina. Notizia non economica bensì politica.

Gazprom. Investimenti per 1.1 trilioni di rubli. Sila Sibiri.

Russia e Cina. Sila Sibiri. Un gasdotto da 4,000 km e 70 mld Usd.

Russia – Cina. Accordo per costruire reattori nucleari di nuova generazione.

Cina. Centrali elettriche nucleari. 37 reattori attivi, 60 in costruzione, 179 programmati.

* * * * * * *

«Brazil’s state-run Petrobras sees no need for cuts in oil production, executives say, as the market for its crude remains robust in China, while domestic demand for fuel picks up amid social distancing fatigue in Latin America’s largest economy»

«On a Friday earnings call with analysts, executives credited the company’s strong relationship with independent refineries in China’s Shandong Province, known as “teapots,”‘ for allowing Petrobras to export a record amount of crude in recent months, even as some economies are effectively shut»

«Storage capacity for crude oil and gasoline is not proving to be an issue»

«Petroleo Brasileiro SA, as the firm is formally known, had throttled back oil production by 200,000 barrels per day in early April, or almost 10% of its output, on fears that weak global demand amid the coronavirus pandemic demand would leave the company without places to store crude»

«But within a month Petrobras had reversed its cuts, surprising many.»

«Executives said on Friday that crude sales to China have been particularly key to bringing Petrobras through the demand crisis caused by the novel coronavirus pandemic, while bunker fuels sales had also remained robust»

«Our commercial team has been developing a long-term relationship with Shandong refineries in China where our oil has strong demand even during the crisis»

«Petrobras has capacity to boost oil exports 10% above the April record of 1 million bpd»

«domestic demand for gasoline and diesel had rebounded significantly from lows in early April»

«While demand for gasoline had been 65% lower than normal, it is now off only 40% to 45% …. Diesel consumption had fallen 50%, but is now only 30% off normal levels»

* * * * * * *

Le previsioni del pil ppa fatte dall’Imf sono eloquenti.

IMF. Proiezioni del pil mondiale al 2024 e 2050. La scomparsa dell’Europa.

Nel 2024 il pil ppa dei paesi G7 dovrebbe essere 50,035 miliardi, contro i 69,169 del blocco Brics.

Per l’occidente solo gli Stati Uniti reggerebbero ancora il confronto con Cina ed India, mentre Giappone e stati del blocco europeo diventerebbero percentualmente ben poco rilevanti nel sistema economico mondiale.

Volenti o nolenti questa è la realtà dei fatti.

*


Petrobras looks to China’s ‘teapots’ to keep oil exports flowing

Brazil’s state-run Petrobras sees no need for cuts in oil production, executives say, as the market for its crude remains robust in China, while domestic demand for fuel picks up amid social distancing fatigue in Latin America’s largest economy.

On a Friday earnings call with analysts, executives credited the company’s strong relationship with independent refineries in China’s Shandong Province, known as “teapots,”‘ for allowing Petrobras to export a record amount of crude in recent months, even as some economies are effectively shut. Storage capacity for crude oil and gasoline is not proving to be an issue, they added.

Petroleo Brasileiro SA, as the firm is formally known, had throttled back oil production by 200,000 barrels per day in early April, or almost 10% of its output, on fears that weak global demand amid the coronavirus pandemic demand would leave the company without places to store crude.

Other major oil companies also scaled back production significantly, including Chevron Corp’s cutbacks in the Permian Basin. But within a month Petrobras had reversed its cuts, surprising many.

On Thursday night, the company posted margins that beat expectations, even as it took a $11 billion impairment on its exploration and production assets.

Executives said on Friday that crude sales to China have been particularly key to bringing Petrobras through the demand crisis caused by the novel coronavirus pandemic, while bunker fuels sales had also remained robust.

“Our commercial team has been developing a long-term relationship with Shandong refineries in China where our oil has strong demand even during the crisis,” Chief Logistics Officer André Barreto Chiarini said, citing appetite for the output from four specific offshore oilfields in Brazil.

“Crude oil from the Lula, Iracema, Sapinhoa and Buzios fields have the same overall characteristics as specific Chinese oils … that are experiencing declining production,” he said.

He added that Petrobras has capacity to boost oil exports 10% above the April record of 1 million bpd.

In a sign that adherence to social distancing measures is slipping from an already low baseline in Brazil, Petrobras downstream chief Anelise Lara told journalists that domestic demand for gasoline and diesel had rebounded significantly from lows in early April.

While demand for gasoline had been 65% lower than normal, it is now off only 40% to 45%, she said. Diesel consumption had fallen 50%, but is now only 30% off normal levels.

The company expects demand for all products except jet fuel to return to near-normal levels in the third or fourth quarter, Lara added.

Executives also said they would dramatically reduce the company’s real estate footprint to cut costs. The home office regime adopted by the company during the pandemic showed that 50% of office workers could effectively work from home permanently, Chief Executive Roberto Castello Branco said.

Brazil-listed preferred shares in Petrobras were down 0.1% in afternoon trade, while Brazil’s benchmark Bovespa equities index fell over 1%.

Pubblicato in: Brasile, Cina, Commercio, Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, India, Russia, Unione Europea

Occidente vs Brics. Debito pubblico. Convitato di pietra.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-04-18.

2020-04-05__ Debito Pil Occidente 001

La crisi economica indotta dalla pandemia del coronavirus sta rapidamente assumendo gli aspetti della stagflazione.

Per minimizzare i rischi di contagio, traffici di merci e persone sono stati ridotti quasi a zero così come la produzione industriale. Al lucro cessante si associa il danno emergente.

Gli stati hanno avviato giganteschi piani di sostegno alle imprese ed all’occupazione, e questo comporterà sia una massiccio ricordo al debito sia la generazione di denaro fiat.

Ma questa situazione sembrerebbe dover durare svariati mesi, perché solo a fine epidemia si potrà parlare di ripresa.

Ci si avvia quindi verso un periodo, si spera transitorio, caratterizzato da cospicui incrementi dei debiti pubblici associati a consistenti cali dei prodotti interni lordi. Come conseguenza, il rapporto debito / pil è destinato a schizzare verso l’alto in tutti i paesi.

* * * * * * *

Ma se si considerasse la situazione attuale, si dovrebbe osservare come i paesi della zona economica occidentale siano oberati dal debito pubblico. In Giappone il rapporto debito / pil è 223.8, in Grecia 180.0%, in Italia 131.2%, in Francia 98.5%, in Spagna 96.7%, in Germania 64.1% e negli Stati Uniti 82.3%. L’Unione Europea ha un rapporto debito / pil di 86.8%.

Ulteriori peggioramenti di questo rapporto potrebbero essere l’anticamera dei default.

*

2020-04-05__ Debito Pil NON Occidente 001

Se invece si considerassero i principali stati non incardinati nel sistema economico occidentale, si evincerebbe come la Cina abbia un rapporto debito / pil del 47%, l’India del 51.1%, e la Russia dell’11.8%.

*

È del tutto evidente come questi ultimi stati siano in una posizione debitoria molto migliore di quella dei paesi occidentali, e che quindi dovrebbero avere migliori chance di una ragionevole ripresa del sistema sociale ed economico.

Sembrerebbe proprio essere iniziato il tramonto dell’occidente di cui Spengler parlò un secolo fa.

Pubblicato in: Brasile, Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Brasile. Automobili. Produzione -7%, Vendita -18.6%, mese su mese.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-04-06.

2020-04-06__Brasile Automobili 001

Avevamo già segnalato il warning.

Brasile. Produzione auto sospesa ad aprile causa carenza forniture.

«Brazil carmakers might have to suspend production in April due to a lack of parts from China, where the coronavirus outbreak has hit suppliers and affected global trade»

«Is there a risk of stopping production in April? There is»

«China is Brazil’s main supplier of foreign auto parts, accounting for 32% of all imported parts»

«The world’s automakers are scrambling to sort out their supply chains in light of the new virus»

«automakers in Brazil had Chinese autoparts in stock to last three to four months»

«at least some carmakers could run into problems as early as April»

«a Mercedes Benz executive, said carmakers were evaluating alternatives such as bringing in Chinese autoparts by plane rather than ship»

* * * * * * *

È nella logica delle cose che quando un grande produttore ed esportatore deve ridurre per un qualsiasi motivo l’export dei suoi prodotti metta immediatamente in difficoltà tutte le attività produttive che da questi dipendevano. Questo è quanto è successo in Brasile, crisi accentuata dal contesto economico generale.

Se è vero che ogni industria mantiene un ragionevole magazzino di scorte, sarebbe altrettanto vero constatare come cerchi di immobilizzare meno capitale che sia possibile, commensurandosi alle esigenze ordinarie.

La epidemia di coronavirus non colpisce quindi solo i paesi affetti, ma ha anche un pernicioso effetto secondario, obbligando alla riduzione o cessazione della produzione di aziende peraltro perfettamente sane, ma che dipendono dalla importazione di materie prime o di semilavorati. In questa maniera i danni economici e sociali si amplificano e si ripercuotono quasi ovunque.

In questa ottica, i dati rilasciati per questo marzo sono anche meno severi del previsto.

L’epidemia da coronavirus ha messo in evidenza il tallone di Achille della globalizzazione: quando intere filiere produttive sono parcellizzate con produzioni di componenti sparse nel mondo è sufficiente che si interrompa per un qualsiasi motivo anche un solo anello della catena, che tutto il comparto risulta essere bloccato.

Se una tale evenienza sia ammortizzabile quando fosse in crisi un settore non essenziale, diventerebbe una catastrofe quando invece si parli di una filiera strategica. Ci si ricordi come il settore automobilistico dia a livello mondiale lavoro ad oltre diciassette milioni di lavoratori.

Finita l’epidemia, una eventuale ripresa economica dovrà ben tenere presente un accentramento delle produzioni e la costituzione di scorte di magazzino di maggiori dimensioni.

La globalizzazione è un’altra teoria economica che è destinata ad essere dismessa.

Pubblicato in: Brasile

Brasile. Produzione auto sospesa ad aprile causa carenza forniture.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-03-11.

Pavimento_Duomo_Siena__02__Strage_degli_Innocenti__

Cina. Gennaio-Febbraio. Export -17.2%, Import -4%.

«Brazil carmakers might have to suspend production in April due to a lack of parts from China, where the coronavirus outbreak has hit suppliers and affected global trade»

«Is there a risk of stopping production in April? There is»

«China is Brazil’s main supplier of foreign auto parts, accounting for 32% of all imported parts»

«The world’s automakers are scrambling to sort out their supply chains in light of the new virus»

«automakers in Brazil had Chinese autoparts in stock to last three to four months»

«at least some carmakers could run into problems as early as April»

«a Mercedes Benz executive, said carmakers were evaluating alternatives such as bringing in Chinese autoparts by plane rather than ship»

* * * * * * *

È nella logica delle cose che quando un grande produttore ed esportatore deve ridurre per un qualsiasi motivo l’export dei suoi prodotti metta immediatamente in difficoltà tutte le attività produttive che da questi dipendevano.

Se è vero che ogni industria mantiene un ragionevole magazzino di scorte, sarebbe altrettanto vero constatare come cerchi di immobilizzare meno capitale che sia possibile, commensurandosi alle esigenze ordinarie.

La epidemia di coronavirus non colpisce quindi solo i paesi affetti, ma ha anche un pernicioso effetto secondario, obbligando alla riduzione o cessazione della produzione di aziende peraltro perfettamente sane, ma che dipendono dalla importazione di materie prime o di semilavorati. In questa maniera i danni economici e sociali si amplificano e si ripercuotono quasi ovunque.

*


Reuters. Brazil auto production may stop in April as coronavirus hits parts supplies

Brazil carmakers might have to suspend production in April due to a lack of parts from China, where the coronavirus outbreak has hit suppliers and affected global trade, automakers’ association Anfavea said on Friday.

“Is there a risk of stopping production in April? There is,” Anfavea’s president Luiz Carlos Moraes told reporters, saying all automakers are monitoring the situation. China is Brazil’s main supplier of foreign auto parts, accounting for 32% of all imported parts, Moraes said.

The world’s automakers are scrambling to sort out their supply chains in light of the new virus. Brazil has been hit with additional trouble: its currency, the Real BRBY has depreciated around 15% so far this year, making imports significantly more expensive.

“If (the real) remains weak, that will mean an additional cost of 8 billion reais ($1.72 billion)” in 2020, Moraes said. He said this would amount to about 2,600 reais per car.

Moraes said in February that automakers in Brazil had Chinese autoparts in stock to last three to four months. But on Friday he made the first clear indication that at least some carmakers could run into problems as early as April.

Moraes, a Mercedes Benz executive, said carmakers were evaluating alternatives such as bringing in Chinese autoparts by plane rather than ship.

Other alternatives include for automakers to shift production to focus on cars that do not need as many Chinese parts. He did not elaborate on individual brand decisions.

Pubblicato in: Brasile, Devoluzione socialismo

Brasile. Archiviati decenni di socialismo si avvia alla rinascita economia.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-01-24.

Brasile 001

Per cercare di comprendere cosa stia succedendo in Brasile sarebbe necessario richiamare alla mente gli ultimi due decenni, caratterizzati dal governo delle sinistre, terminati con condanne penali e destituzioni.

Mr Bolsonaro ha raccolto una nazione saccheggiata fin nel minimo dettaglio: le sinistre lo hanno depredato di tutto, ivi compresa della dignità umana.

Non solo, Mr Bolsonaro ha pagato in prima persona l’aver contrastato quello che era stato il partito egemone, che fu mandante dell’attentato quasi mortale che dovette subire.

Tutti gli organi statali e parastatali erano stati colonizzati da quella genia, che aveva formato una lobby di estremo quanto brutale potere. E sul piano internazionale, tutti i residui stati liberal gli stanno facendo una guerra sia economica sia di propaganda ingannevole.

Orbene, adesso la situazione apparirebbe in netto miglioramento.

«The Brazilian government’s fiscal outlook for this year and next continues to improve, an Economy Ministry summary of private sector forecasts on Thursday showed, which will give the government more leeway to meet its deficit targets»

«Median forecasts suggest the primary budget deficit this year, before interest rate payments are taken into account, will be 82.3 billion reais ($19.7 billion), down from 84 bln reais predicted previously, according to the Ministry’s latest ‘Prisma’ report»

«That would be significantly below the official target of 124.1 bln reais, but still mark the seventh consecutive annual deficit»

«Economists’ primary deficit forecast for 2021 is 47.2 bln reais, slightly down from 47.6 bln reais in last month’s survey, and again well below the government’s official target of a 68.5 bln reais shortfall»

«Economic activity in Brazil rose in November for the fourth month in a row, a central bank indicator showed on Thursday, pointing to fairly solid economic growth in the fourth quarter»

«The central bank’s IBC-Br economic activity index, a leading indicator of gross domestic product (GDP), rose 0.18% in November from October, more than the 0.10% median estimate in a Reuters poll of economists»

«In first 11 months of last year activity was up 0.95%, and in the year to November it was up 0.9%, the central bank said, largely in line with the growing consensus that the economy’s positive momentum accelerated into the fourth quarter from the third»

«The government this week raised its 2019 GDP growth forecast to 1.1% from 0.9% previously, and its 2020 growth outlook to 2.4% from 2.3%.»

* * * * * * *

La diminuzione del deficit associata ad un incremento del pil proiettato al +2.4% per l’anno in corso sono ottime notizie per il Brasile.

Nel contempo ci ricordano quanto tempo e quanta fatica siano necessarie per rimediare ai guasti fatti dal socialismo.

*


Brazil economic activity rises in November, points to solid fourth quarter GDP

Economic activity in Brazil rose in November for the fourth month in a row, a central bank indicator showed on Thursday, pointing to fairly solid economic growth in the fourth quarter.

The central bank’s IBC-Br economic activity index, a leading indicator of gross domestic product (GDP), rose 0.18% in November from October, more than the 0.10% median estimate in a Reuters poll of economists.

In the three months to November, activity was up 0.75%, the central bank said.

The data tie in with other indicators for November showing solid if unspectacular growth in retail sales and the dominant services sector, and are more upbeat than recent purchasing managers index (PMI) figures.

Compared with the same month a year earlier, activity rose 1.10%, the central bank said, and in the three months to November activity was up 1.71% compared with the same period a year earlier.

In first 11 months of last year activity was up 0.95%, and in the year to November it was up 0.9%, the central bank said, largely in line with the growing consensus that the economy’s positive momentum accelerated into the fourth quarter from the third.

Latin America’s largest economy expanded by 0.6% in the third quarter of last year, more than expected and prompting many economists to revise up their 2019 and 2020 growth forecasts.

The government this week raised its 2019 GDP growth forecast to 1.1% from 0.9% previously, and its 2020 growth outlook to 2.4% from 2.3%.

*


Brazil government debt, deficit projections continue to fall: report

The Brazilian government’s fiscal outlook for this year and next continues to improve, an Economy Ministry summary of private sector forecasts on Thursday showed, which will give the government more leeway to meet its deficit targets.

Median forecasts suggest the primary budget deficit this year, before interest rate payments are taken into account, will be 82.3 billion reais ($19.7 billion), down from 84 bln reais predicted previously, according to the Ministry’s latest ‘Prisma’ report.

That would be significantly below the official target of 124.1 bln reais, but still mark the seventh consecutive annual deficit.

Economists’ primary deficit forecast for 2021 is 47.2 bln reais, slightly down from 47.6 bln reais in last month’s survey, and again well below the government’s official target of a 68.5 bln reais shortfall.

The report also showed that economists have reduced their forecast for Brazil’s gross national debt this year to 78% of gross domestic product from 79%. That is expected to remain steady into 2021.

Earlier this week Waldery Rodrigues, special secretary to the Economy Ministry, said Brazil’s gross debt will no longer exceed 80% of GDP, as record low official interest rates continue to reduce debt servicing costs.

Pubblicato in: Brasile, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Unione Europea. Solo quel povero tapino di Zingaretti le concede credito.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-01-09.

Minosse & Macron

Nel momento di accettare il governo rosso-giallo, Zingaretti pose in modo molto chiaro le proprie condizioni, che per il movimento cinque stelle recepì pienamente, con un cambio di rotta di centottanta gradi.

Direzione PD e programma di Zingaretti.

«La Direzione del Pd ha approvato un ordine del giorno che ripercorre la relazione di Nicola Zingaretti dando il mandato a aprire una trattativa per verificare la possibilità di “un governo di svolta per la legislatura”, in “discontinuità” col precedente. Il documento è stato approvato per acclamazione all’unanimità»

«Il governo giallo verde caduto ieri “è stato uno dei peggiori della storia della Repubblica, dopo 14 mesi è fallito”»

«”Il problema non è l’esercizio provvisorio, ma la manovra mostruosa che abbiamo davanti” e che ammonta ad almeno 23 miliardi. “Togliamoci dalla testa che trovare 23 miliardi sia facile»

«Un eventuale nuovo governo deve essere “di svolta, di legislatura” altrimenti “è meglio andare alle urne”»

«”Appartenenza leale all’Unione europea; pieno riconoscimento della democrazia rappresentativa, a partire dalla centralità del parlamento; sviluppo basto sulla sostenibilità ambientale; cambio nella gestione di flussi migratori, con pieno protagonismo dell’Europa; svolta delle ricette economiche e sociale, in chiave redistributiva, che apra una stagione di investimenti”»

* * * * * * *

Spesso vi è una concreta discrepanza tra ciò che è e ciò che si crede sia una qualsiasi cosa.

Mentre per Zingaretti e per il partito democratico l’Unione Europea nella sua componente liberal socialista è punto di riferimento di gran peso, per molti altri vale ben poco, molto poco, quasi nulla.

Unione Europea che galoppa verso la irrilevanza politica internazionale.

Sorge spontanea la domanda: ma quanto vale l’Unione Europea? Eppure essa è guidata da ben tre femmine: Frau Merkel, Fra von der Leyen e Mrs Lagarde. Con tre femmine al top dovrebbe essere a punta di diamante degli stati mondiali, in accordo alla teoria liberal socialista.

*

Negli ultimi tempi si sono verificati molti fatti che coinvolgono l’Unione in modo profondo. Per esempio, la situazione in Libia, con il prossimo invio di truppe turche in quello stato nord africano, sotto il patrocinio di Mr Putin.

Di certo Mr Erdogan non affronterà tale impresa per fare un favore all’Unione Europea.

Però, più una nazione vale, più la gente ne parla e studia tutte le sue mosse.

Osserviamo allora le pagine nazionali edite da Reuters. Le porgiamo in fotocopia perché la composizione delle pagine varia, ovviamente, nel tempo.


2020-01-05__Reuters 004

Turchia.

Un articolo il 30/12 e tre articoli il 2 gennaio, due dei quali focalizzati sulla Libia.


2020-01-05__Reuters 002

Francia.

Gli articoli si fermano alle date del 22 e del 23 dicembre. Nemmeno una menzione al problema del Mediterraneo.


2020-01-05__Reuters 003


Germania.

Gli articoli risalgono al dicembre dello scorso anno, 21, 24, 30 e 30 dicembre. Le alternative sono in primo piano: non parlano quasi di altro.


2020-01-05__Reuters 001

Brasile.

Solo per paragone, ecco la fotocopia della pagina dedicata al Brasile. Qui riportiamo gli ultimi quattro articoli tutti del 2 gennaio, ma gli articoli del 2 gennaio sono nove, come per quasi tutti gli altri giorni.

* * * * * * *

Questo riportato è solo uno dei tanti segni di quanto valga l’Unione Europea e di quanto il mondo internazionale si curi si sapere cosa pensi e cosa faccia. Vive felicemente ignorandola.

Solo Mr Zingaretti è suo validissimo supporto.

Pubblicato in: Brasile, Cina, Commercio

Cina e Brasile. Interscambio commerciale salito a 110 miliardi Usd.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-11-25.

Brasile 001

L’Unione Europea stenta ad accettare il rapporto con il Mercosur, nonostante sia in essere un accordo commerciale. Ufficialmente perché il Brasile starebbe riducendo la foresta amazzonica, nei fatti perché il suo settore alimentare riesce a produrre a prezzi di circa un quarto di quelli europei. Specialmente la Francia sta avversando questo trattato, cercando in ogni modo e maniera di boicottarlo: il Brasile non rispetterebbe i diritti umani.

Ma l’Unione Europea non estingue il mondo economicamente attivo. Proprio per nulla.

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«China granted export licenses to 25 Brazilian meatpacking plants, Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry said on Monday, allowing the country’s fast-growing protein industry to feed more people in the Asian nation where disease has hurt local supply»

«The news drove up the stocks of licensed-plant owners BRF SA , Minerva SA and Marfrig Global Foods SA»

«Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry said the plants – including 17 for beef exports, six for chicken, and one each for pork and donkey meat – “can already export immediately.”»

«China is Brazil’s largest export market for beef, chicken and pork, with demand surging since last year as an African swine fever outbreak has decimated China’s pig herds»

«Brazilian pork exports to China soared 48% in the first eight months of the year, according to Brazil government statistics, while beef exports to China are up 17% and chicken exports rose soared 37%»

«The expanded opportunity in China comes as Brazil’s meatpackers face tougher scrutiny from markets such as Europe over how a boom in cattle ranching has contributed to deforestation and fires in the Amazon rainforest and other sensitive habitats»

*

I risultati sono stati quasi immediati.

«Two-way trade between Brazil and China this year is expected to reach $105 billion to $110 billion»

«Last year, two-way trade between the countries totaled $98.7 billion»

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L’Unione Europea liberal sta perdendo visibilmente mercato su mercato.

Si sta comportando come se un secolo fosse passato invano: la sua forza culturale, politica ed economica sta calando giorno dopo giorno, ed infatti l’eurozona è in recessione. I settori che abbandona sono immediatamente occupati dalla concorrenza, senza colpo ferire. Non è più in grado di condizionare alcunché.

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Reuters. 2019-11-23. Brazil-China 2019 trade expected to surpass $105 billion: official

Two-way trade between Brazil and China this year is expected to reach $105 billion to $110 billion,Marcos Troyjo, foreign trade secretary at the Brazilian Economy Ministry, said on Thursday.

Last year, two-way trade between the countries totaled $98.7 billion, according to Brazilian government statistics.

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Cnbc. 2019-09-09. China clears 25 Brazil meat plants for export, lifting shares

BRASILIA/SAO PAULO, Sept 9 (Reuters) – China granted export licenses to 25 Brazilian meatpacking plants, Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry said on Monday, allowing the country’s fast-growing protein industry to feed more people in the Asian nation where disease has hurt local supply.

The news drove up the stocks of licensed-plant owners BRF SA , Minerva SA and Marfrig Global Foods SA .

Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry said the plants – including 17 for beef exports, six for chicken, and one each for pork and donkey meat – “can already export immediately.”

China is Brazil’s largest export market for beef, chicken and pork, with demand surging since last year as an African swine fever outbreak has decimated China’s pig herds.

Brazilian pork exports to China soared 48% in the first eight months of the year, according to Brazil government statistics, while beef exports to China are up 17% and chicken exports rose soared 37%.

Orlando Ribeiro, trade and foreign relations secretary at Brazil’s agriculture ministry, said at an event in Sao Paulo that the government would welcome additional plant approvals, suggesting the country might be able to streamline the evaluation process by “pre-listing” some meatpacking plants, a move that requires Beijing’s approval.

Under that system, the Brazilian government would create and audit a list of potential suppliers to China who could be preapproved if they meet that country’s sanitary and quality requirements, he said.

The expanded opportunity in China comes as Brazil’s meatpackers face tougher scrutiny from markets such as Europe over how a boom in cattle ranching has contributed to deforestation and fires in the Amazon rainforest and other sensitive habitats.

Brazil’s biggest meatpackers say they monitor their supply chains to avoid buying cattle from illegally deforested land.

Brazil meatpackers Minerva and Marfrig said in separate securities filings that they each have two plants authorized to export beef to China.

In a list released by the ministry, a BRF plant in Mato Grosso was authorized to export chicken and pork to China.

Minerva said its two newly authorized plants have a combined capacity of 3,500 head of cattle per day.

Marfrig’s two plants are the Tangara de Serra and Varzea Grande units in the state of Mato Grosso.

Marfrig shares closed 3.9% higher on Monday, while Minerva shares closed up 5.6%.

BRF’s shares rose 3% before paring gains to settle up 1.5%. All far outperformed the broader Bovespa index, which closed 0.24% higher. (Reporting by Jamie McGeever and Jake Spring in Brasilia and Ana Mano in Sao Paulo Editing by Richard Chang and Matthew Lewis)

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Brasile, Cina, Devoluzione socialismo, India, Russia

IMF. World Economic Outlook. Italia a crescita zero.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-10-19.

Paris. Saint-Denis. Monumento funebre in onore di Luigi XVI e Maria Antonietta.

Paris. Saint-Denis. Monumento funebre in onore di Luigi XVI e Maria Antonietta. Prima decapitati, quindi onorati.


2019-10-17__IMF 001

L’IMF prevede una crescita del Pil eguale a zero per l’Italia.

2019-10-17__IMF 002

China +6.1, Brazil +0.9, India +6.1, Hungary +4.6, Philippines +5.7, Poland +4.0, Russian Federation +1.1, Romania +4.0,

France +1.2, Germany +0.5, Japan +0.9, Netherlands +1.8, United States +2.4.

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Fmi taglia stime Italia, ferma nel 2019

– Italia a crescita zero nel 2019. Il Fmi rivede al ribasso le stime per il pil italiano sia per quest’anno sia per il 2020. Dopo il +0,9% del 2018, per il 2019 la crescita è prevista a zero, ovvero 0,1 punti percentuali in meno sia rispetto alle previsioni di luglio sia a quelle di aprile. Per il 2020 la crescita è attesa a +0,5% (-0,3 punti su luglio e -0,4 su aprile). A pesare, afferma il Fondo, è l'”indebolimento della domanda interna, un minore impulso si bilancio e un contesto esterno più debole”.

Per l’Italia è “particolarmente essenziale” un impegno “credibile” per un calo del debito pubblico nel medio termine dice il Fondo. Il Fondo stima un debito pubblico in aumento al133,2 nel 2019 dal 132,2% del 2018. Nel 2020 salirà ancora attestandosi al 133,7%, per poi raggiungere il 134% nel 2024. Il deficit è previsto scendere al 2,0% del pil quest’anno dal 2,1% del 2018. Nel 2020 sarà al 2,5% e raggiungerà il 2,6% nel 2024.Il Fmi taglia le stime di crescita di Germania e Francia e  Gb.

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L’IMF ha pubblicato il Report

World Economic Outlook, October 2019. Global Manufacturing Downturn, Rising Trade Barriers.

Full Report and Executive Summary

Global growth is forecast at 3.0 percent for 2019, its lowest level since 2008–09 and a 0.3 percentage point downgrade from the April 2019 World Economic Outlook. Growth is projected to pick up to 3.4 percent in 2020 (a 0.2 percentage point downward revision compared with April), reflecting primarily a projected improvement in economic performance in a number of emerging markets in Latin America, the Middle East, and emerging and developing Europe that are under macroeconomic strain. Yet, with uncertainty about prospects for several of these countries, a projected slowdown in China and the United States, and prominent downside risks, a much more subdued pace of global activity could well materialize. To forestall such an outcome, policies should decisively aim at defusing trade tensions, reinvigorating multilateral cooperation, and providing timely support to economic activity where needed. To strengthen resilience, policymakers should address financial vulnerabilities that pose risks to growth in the medium term. Making growth more inclusive, which is essential for securing better economic prospects for all, should remain an overarching goal.

Chapter 1: Global Prospects and Policies

Over the past year, global growth has fallen sharply. Among advanced economies, the weakening has been broad based, affecting major economies (the United States and especially the euro area) and smaller Asian advanced economies. The slowdown in activity has been even more pronounced across emerging market and developing economies, including Brazil, China, India, Mexico, and Russia, as well as a few economies suffering macroeconomic and financial stress.

Chapter 2:  Closer Together or Further Apart? Subnational Regional Disparities and Adjustment in Advanced Economies

Subnational—within-country—regional disparities in real output, employment, and productivity in advanced economies have attracted greater interest in recent years against a backdrop of growing social and political tensions. Regional disparities in the average advanced economy have risen since the late 1980s, reflecting gains from economic concentration in some regions and relative stagnation in others. On average, lagging regions have worse health outcomes, lower labor productivity, and greater employment shares in agriculture and industry sectors than other within-country regions. Moreover, adjustment in lagging regions is slower, with adverse shocks having longer-lived negative effects on economic performance. Although much discussed, trade shocks—in particular greater import competition in external markets—do not appear to drive the differences in labor market performance between lagging and other regions, on average. By contrast, technology shocks—proxied by declines in the costs of machinery and equipment capital goods—raise unemployment in regions that are more vulnerable to automation, with more exposed lagging regions particularly hurt. National policies that reduce distortions and encourage more flexible and open markets, while providing a robust social safety net, can facilitate regional adjustment to adverse shocks, dampening rises in unemployment. Place-based policies targeted at lagging regions may also play a role, but they must be carefully calibrated to ensure they help rather than hinder beneficial adjustment.

Chapter 3: Reigniting Growth in Emerging Market and Low-Income Economies: What Role for Structural Reforms?

The pace of structural reforms in emerging market and developing economies was strong during the 1990s, but it has slowed since the early 2000s. Using a newly constructed database on structural reforms, this chapter finds that a reform push in such areas as governance, domestic and external finance, trade, and labor and product markets could deliver sizable output gains in the medium term. A major and comprehensive reform package might double the speed of convergence of the average emerging market and developing economy to the living standards of advanced economies, raising annual GDP growth by about 1 percentage point for some time. At the same time, reforms take several years to deliver, and some of them—easing job protection regulation and liberalizing domestic finance—may entail greater short-term costs when carried out in bad times; these are best implemented under favorable economic conditions and early in authorities’ electoral mandate. Reform gains also tend to be larger when governance and access to credit—two binding constraints on growth—are strong, and where labor market informality is higher—because reforms help reduce it. These findings underscore the importance of carefully tailoring reforms to country circumstances to maximize their benefits.

Statistical Appendix

The Statistical Appendix presents historical data as well as projections. It comprises seven sections: Assumptions, What’s New, Data and Conventions, Country Notes, Classification of Countries, Key Data Documentation, and Statistical Tables.

Pubblicato in: Brasile, Cina

Brasile. Accordo Minas Gerais e Chinese miner Honbridge Holdings.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-09-20.

Brasile. Minas Gerais 002

«This is the beginning of Brazil’s liberation from socialism, political correctness and a bloated state»

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«The Brazilian state of Minas Gerais has signed a protocol of intent with Sul Americana de Metais, a unit of Chinese miner Honbridge Holdings, for the construction of a 9.1 billion reais ($2.2 billion) mining complex»

«The agreement, signed on Thursday, will include the construction of a 845 million square meters (208,804 acres) tailing dam, which will be one of the largest in Brazil»

«That “mega-dam” would be some 70 times bigger than the tailing dam that collapsed at Vale’s site in the Minas Gerais town of Brumadinho in January»

«Tailings are the muddy waste produced in mining for iron ore and other minerals»

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Il Brasile è davvero molto ricco in giacimenti minerari, al momento ancora poco sfruttati e, spesso, usando tecnologie obsolete.

Al momento però è carente di adeguate risorse finanziarie e tecnologiche, per cui deve mandatoriamente trovarsi partner con i quali collaborare.

Stati ed imprese occidentali darebbero l’occhio sinistro per entrare in questi business, ma i loro governi tenderebbero ad imporre prima la loro visione liberal socialista, che l’attuale presidenza Bolsonaro non condivide. E questo è ampio motivo di scontro.

Brasile. Esce dall’UN Migration Pact e disconosce l’Accordo di Parigi sul ‘clima’.

Amazzonia. Scusa EU per colpire l’import di carne brasiliana.

Trattato EU – Mercosur. Esplode la rabbia del comparto agro alimentare europeo.

Macron. Il bimbo viziato adesso se la prende con il Mercosur.

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In questa contingenza è del tutto sequenziale che il Brasile si rivolga alla finanza ed alla tecnologia cinese.

Questa è una conseguenza che verosimilmente gli occidentali hanno sottovalutato.


Reuters. 2019-09-15. Brazilian state signs $2.2 billion ‘mega-dam’ deal with Chinese miner: report

BRASILIA (Reuters) – The Brazilian state of Minas Gerais has signed a protocol of intent with Sul Americana de Metais, a unit of Chinese miner Honbridge Holdings, for the construction of a 9.1 billion reais ($2.2 billion) mining complex, newspaper O Estado de Sao Paulo reported on Saturday.

The agreement, signed on Thursday, will include the construction of a 845 million square meters (208,804 acres) tailing dam, which will be one of the largest in Brazil, according to the report.

That “mega-dam” would be some 70 times bigger than the tailing dam that collapsed at Vale’s site in the Minas Gerais town of Brumadinho in January, which resulted in the deaths of more than 240 people.

Tailings are the muddy waste produced in mining for iron ore and other minerals. The waste is often contained within a dam built using a variety of methods.

Sul Americana de Metais insists the model is safe, according to the report.