Pubblicato in: Brasile

Brasile. Luglio21. Indice dei prezzi al consumo, CPI, +8.59% anno su anno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-07-31.

2021-07-25__ Brasile 001

Il Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) ha rilasciato il Report sul CPI brasiliano.

2021-07-25__ Brasile 002

«The IPCA – Extended National Consumer Price Index – measures the change in the cost of living of families with an average income of 1 to 40 minimum wages. ….

Differences between IPCA-15 and IPCA lie in geographic coverage and data collection period, which, for the former, starts on the 16th of the preceding month. IPCA 15 is a type of IPCA preview. ….

IPCA – Complete survey

Sidra – Tables of Results

IBGE Explains – Inflation

IPCA Calculator

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IPCA-15 – Complete survey

Sidra – Tables of Results

IBGE Explains – Inflation»

* * * * * * *


Brazil’s Consumer Prixe Index rises 0.72% in July, highest for the month in 17 years

In 12 months, the IPCA-15 index has advanced 8.59%, against an accumulated high of 8.13% in June and more than double of the government’s target for this year of 3.75%.

Brazil’s official inflation forecast slowed down in July but still had the highest increase for the month since 2004, with electricity and gasoline keeping up the pressure on prices.

According to data released Friday by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the Broad National Consumer Price Index-15 (IPCA-15) rose 0.72% in July, after a high of 0.83% in the previous month.

In 12 months, the IPCA-15 index has advanced 8.59%, against an accumulated high of 8.13% in June and more than double of the government’s . . .

Pubblicato in: Brasile

Brasile. Bolsonaro. Ricoverato, ma con polls favorevoli al rinnovo.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-07-18.

Brasile. Minas Gerais 002

«For the first time, a clear majority of Brazilians think the country’s coronavirus pandemic is no longer “out of control”»

«in what could be a boost for President Jair Bolsonaro, who is almost certain to seek re-election next year»

«Bolsonaro has seen his polls numbers sag due to his handling of the world’s second deadliest outbreak, in which over half a million Brazilians have died from the virus, second only to the United States»

«Bolsonaro, who is currently hospitalized and could face emergency surgery due to complications from a 2018 stabbing»

«According to the poll, 53% of Brazilians now think the pandemic is “partly under control” while an additional 5% think it is “totally under control”»

«41% of Brazilians polled think the pandemic is still “out of control,” down from a high of 79% in mid-March»

«Black Brazilians are the most likely to say that the pandemic is “out of control,” with 52% choosing that option, compared with 38% of white Brazilians»

«Coronavirus deaths in Brazil have been steadily falling since April from a record high of over 4,000 in one day. On Wednesday, Brazil reported 1,556 deaths»

«Over 42% of Brazilians have received at least one dose, while just over 15% are fully vaccinated»

* * * * * * *

Brasile. Elezioni politiche. Bolsonaro sembrerebbe essere favorito.

Brasile. Il sistema economico sembrerebbe essere in netta ripresa.

Brasile. Adesso è il terzo fornitore della Cina di petrolio.

Brasile. Bolsonaro nomina Kassio Nunes alla Suprema Corte.

Brasile. Bolsonaro sale molto nei sondaggi. Liberal angustiati e tormentati.

Brasile. Jair Bolsonaro. Datafolha. Popolarità mai così alta al 37%, Consenso 47%.

Brasile. Giugno. PMI in crescita, ma ancora in fascia di contrazione.

Brasile. Archiviati decenni di socialismo si avvia alla rinascita economia.

* * * * * * *

«This is the beginning of Brazil’s liberation from socialism, political correctness and a bloated state»

*

Sarebbe a nostro sommesso parere del tutto prematuro parlare dei prognostici per le elezioni politiche del prossimo anno in Brasile.

Prendiamo atto come Mr Bolsonaro debba subire un nuovo intervento chirurgico addominale, a seguito del tentato omicidio cui fu oggetto nel corso delle passate elezioni.

I liberal democratici lo odiano perché non si piega ai loro voleri, ed anche perché è sopravvissuto all’attentato.

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In boost for Bolsonaro, most Brazilians say pandemic is under control, poll shows

SAO PAULO, July 15 (Reuters) – For the first time, a clear majority of Brazilians think the country’s coronavirus pandemic is no longer “out of control,” a Datafolha poll published on Thursday showed, in what could be a boost for President Jair Bolsonaro, who is almost certain to seek re-election next year.

Bolsonaro has seen his polls numbers sag due to his handling of the world’s second deadliest outbreak, in which over half a million Brazilians have died from the virus, second only to the United States.

Bolsonaro, who is currently hospitalized and could face emergency surgery due to complications from a 2018 stabbing, has been criticized for minimizing the severity of the disease, being slow to acquire vaccines, shunning lockdowns and pushing unproven miracle cures.

According to the poll, 53% of Brazilians now think the pandemic is “partly under control” while an additional 5% think it is “totally under control.”

Meanwhile, 41% of Brazilians polled think the pandemic is still “out of control,” down from a high of 79% in mid-March.

Black Brazilians are the most likely to say that the pandemic is “out of control,” with 52% choosing that option, compared with 38% of white Brazilians.

Coronavirus deaths in Brazil have been steadily falling since April from a record high of over 4,000 in one day. On Wednesday, Brazil reported 1,556 deaths.

The results of the survey suggest that Brazilians believe the government’s vaccination drive, which was widely criticized for its slow and patchy rollout, is beginning to yield results.

Over 42% of Brazilians have received at least one dose, while just over 15% are fully vaccinated, according to Our World in Data.

The Datafolha poll was carried out July 7 and 8 and has a margin of error of 2 percentage points.

Pubblicato in: Brasile, Cina, Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Fisco e Tasse, India, Materie Prime, Regno Unito, Stati Uniti

Occidente si sta suicidando per motivi ideologici con alti costi dell’energia.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-07-01.

2021-06-28__ CostoEnergia per kwh 001

La disponibilità di corrente elettrica anche nei momenti di richieste di picco ed a costi concorrenziali è uno dei presupposti per sostenere un sistema economico produttivo che sia competitivo nel mercato.

Nel mondo, i prezzi per kw/h sono massimi in Germania (0.36 dollari americani), seguita dalla Danimarca (0.33), dal Belgio (0.3), dal Portogallo (0.27), dal Regno Unito (0.26), dall’Italia (0.26), dalla Spagna (0.24), dalla Francia (0.22).

Pur essendo caro, negli Stati Uniti il prezzo per kw/h è 0.15.

Per contro, il prezzo per kw/h è 0.12 in Brasile, 0.1 in Indonesia, 0.08 in India ed in Cina.

* * * * * * *

L’enclave liberal socialista occidentale presenta i costi più elevati, doppi di quelli degli Stati Uniti e quadrupli rispetto a quelli dell’India e della Cina.

Questi oneri strutturali pesano sia sulle popolazioni, sia sul comparto industriale, che di conseguenza è poco o punto concorrenziale a livello mondiale. Essi sostengono inoltre il processo inflattivo in corso.

* * * * * * *

I motivi che sostengono questi prezzi elevati sono da ascriversi sicuramente al costo delle materie prime, ma in misura ben maggiore alle tasse che gli stati hanno imposto per privilegiare l’abbandono del carbone e dei combustibili fossili, coerentemente a quanto prescrive l’ideologia liberal.

Nulla da stupirsi, quindi, che l’occidente stia devolvendo.

2021-05-20__ G7 GDP (Statista) 001

Pubblicato in: Brasile, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Brasile. Giugno21. IPCA-15. Indice dei Prezzi al Consumo annuale 8.13%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-06-30.

2021-06-27__ Brasile - IPC (Indice dei Prezzi al Consumo) di metà mese (Annuale) 001

«After this year’s projected contraction due to the Covid-19 hit, the economy is seen rebounding strongly in 2021 as domestic and foreign demand recover. However, the gradual reducing of fiscal stimulus as the coronavirus shock fades, an elevated unemployment rate and ballooning public debt represent downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy rebounding and growing 3.4% in 2021, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2022, panelists see GDP growth at 2.5%.»

2021-06-27__ Brasile - IPC (Indice dei Prezzi al Consumo) di metà mese (Annuale) 002

Si faccia attenzione ai valori annuali, ultime due colonne: a sinistra quelli calcolati sugli ultimi dodici mesi, ed a destra quelli calcolati anno su anno, che sembrerebbero deescrivere meglio la situazione economica. Il PPI vale 16.08.

Pubblicato in: Brasile, Devoluzione socialismo, India

Covid e fake news. Brasile, India ed Italia a confronto. Non facciamoci infinocchiare.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-10.

2021-05-09__ Covid Decessi Brasile 001

2021-05-09__ Covid Decessi India 001

2021-05-09__ Covid Decessi Italia 001

I media liberal occidentali hanno la grande caratteristica che conferisce la certezza quasi assoluta che quanto hanno riportato sia un colossale falso. Letti sotto questa ottica sarebbero financo utili a qualcosa.

Né dimentichiamoci l’Imprimatur che conferisce la soppressione su Facebook: segno palese quanto evidente che le informazioni censurate erano la perfetta verità.

Brasile ed India si stanno avviando alle elezioni politiche: i liberal odiano le loro attuali dirigenze, e stanno facendo carte false pur di denigrarli.

Secondo tali fonti di fake news, Brasile ed India sarebbero agli stremi, con una epidemia flagellante che starebbe per annientarli.

Ma togliamoci la curiosità ed esaminiamo da vicino i dati numerici.

Brasile.

Il Brasile ha 213,724,704 abitanti ed ha riscontrato 2,195 decessi da covid-19, ossia lo 0.001027% della popolazione.

India.

L’India ha 1,390,456,911 abitanti ed ha riscontrato 4,187 decessi da covid-19, ossia lo 0.000301% della popolazione.

Italia.

L’Italia ha 59,257,566 abitanti ed ha riscontrato 238 decessi da covid-19, ossia lo 0.000402% della popolazione.

Commento.

L’Italia ha percentualmente sulla popolazione più decessi dell’India, e circa la metà di quelli del Brasile.

U.S. Count Eases; India Reports Record Death Toll: Virus Update

Come dovevasi dimostrare, i media liberal occidentale propalano menzogne.

Pubblicato in: Brasile, Commercio, Devoluzione socialismo

Brasile. Analisi dell’Export per comprenderne la politica estera.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-03-28.

2021-03-23__ brasile 001

Negli ultimi anni il Brasile ha mutato la politica estera. È stato un cambio di rotta sicuramente legato alla personalità di Mr Bolsonaro ed alle idee politiche dei partiti che lo sostengono, ma sembrerebbero essere scelte molto meno emotive di quanto ci si vorrebbe far credere. L’analisi dell’Export fornirebbe validi dati in appoggio a questa tesi.

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Il Brasile sta uscendo dal turmoil indotto dalla epidemia di Covid-19, ma ha dimostrato segni di una economia robusta.

Soia. Brasile. Si prevede un raccolto di soia di 133 milioni di tonnellate.

Brasile. Elezioni politiche. Bolsonaro sembrerebbe essere favorito.

Brasile. Il sistema economico sembrerebbe essere in netta ripresa.

Brasile. Adesso è il terzo fornitore della Cina di petrolio.

Brasile. Archiviati decenni di socialismo si avvia alla rinascita economia.

*

2021-03-23__ brasile 002

Al momento attuale l’ultimo dato disponibile del pil è -1.1% anno su anno, le tasse societarie valgono il 34% mentre quelle sulle persone fisiche sono il 27.5%.

L’esame analitico dell’Export per stato mostra la China in prima posizione con 63.36 (28%) miliardi di Usd, mentre gli Stati Uniti sono scesi a 29.86 (13%) miliardi.

L’Export verso l’Asia è cresciuto al 47%, mentre quelli verso le Americhe  e verso l’Europa sono scesi al 32% ed al 18%, rispettivamente.

Se questo trend proseguisse nel tempo, a breve anche il Brasile graviterebbe un modo indissolubile nella sfera economica del sud est asiatico.

Pubblicato in: Brasile, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Brasile. Gennaio. Generati 260,353 nuovi posti di lavoro.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-03-21.

Brasile. Minas Gerais 002

L’IBGE – Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatitica ha rilasciato i seguenti dati.

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«Brazil’s economy created more than a quarter of a million formal jobs in January»

«The robust figures came after data on Monday showed activity in Latin America’s largest economy was also much stronger in January than economists had expected»

«A net 260,353 formal jobs were created in January»

«A net 90,431 industry jobs were created in January, almost all in manufacturing, while a net 83,686 jobs were created in the services sector …. In construction 43,498 jobs were created in the month»

«1.53 million jobs were created in January overall and 1.27 million were cut»

«Average salaries rose for a second month, up 1.2% to 1,760 reais a month from 1,740 reais in December»

«On an annual basis, factory output rose at a softer pace of 2.0% in January (December: +8.3% yoy)»

* * * * * * *

Brazil: Industrial output growth eases in January

«Industrial output rose 0.4% in month-on-month seasonally-adjusted terms in January, which followed December’s 0.8% increase and was in line with market analysts’ expectations. The figure marked the worst reading since April 2020. Looking at the details of the release, intermediate goods output contracted in January, while consumer and capital goods output accelerated from the previous month. Lastly, durable consumer goods production declined in January, while non-durable consumer goods output gained momentum.

On an annual basis, factory output rose at a softer pace of 2.0% in January (December: +8.3% yoy). Meanwhile, the trend improved slightly, with the annual average variation of industrial production coming in at minus 4.2%, up from December’s minus 4.4%.

FocusEconomics LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists see industrial production expanding 5.9% in 2021, which is up 1.0 percentage point from last month’s estimate. In 2022, industrial output is projected to grow 3.0%»

* * * * * * *


Brazil economy creates record number of formal jobs in January.

Brazil’s economy created more than a quarter of a million formal jobs in January, official figures showed on Tuesday, the strongest growth for that month since comparable records began in 1992.

The robust figures came after data on Monday showed activity in Latin America’s largest economy was also much stronger in January than economists had expected, indicating a solid start to the year.

“This really is historic, and shows that the economy is once again taking off,” Economy Minister Paulo Guedes said in a virtual press conference, adding that February’s tax revenue figures due in the coming days might also be at record levels.

A net 260,353 formal jobs were created in January, the Economy Ministry said, more than double the 122,000 increase forecast in a Reuters poll of economists, led by industry and services.

The data, however, is for a period before the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic became far more deadly. Since January, tens of thousands of Brazilians have died and several states have gone back into near total lockdown.

Work and Pensions Secretary Bruno Bianco said at the same press conference that President Jair Bolsonaro would soon sign an executive decree extending a job and income protection scheme launched last year at the onset of the pandemic.

Guedes said the program, which expired on Dec. 31, saved 11 million jobs last year.

A net 90,431 industry jobs were created in January, almost all in manufacturing, while a net 83,686 jobs were created in the services sector, the ministry said. In construction 43,498 jobs were created in the month.

The figures on Tuesday showed 1.53 million jobs were created in January overall and 1.27 million were cut. Average salaries rose for a second month, up 1.2% to 1,760 reais a month from 1,740 reais in December, the ministry said.

Pubblicato in: Agricoltura, Brasile, Cina

Soia. Brasile. Si prevede un raccolto di soia di 133 milioni di tonnellate.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-02-20.

Soia Semi 001

«Harvesting delays in Brazil, the world’s top soybean producer, are prompting buyers led by China to rely on rival exporter the United States for longer than usual in 2021»

«Sustained demand for U.S. soybeans is accelerating an historic drawdown of U.S. supplies of the oilseed and could further drive up soybean prices at a time of rising food inflation as countries hoard staples during the pandemic»

«Brazil usually harvests its soybeans in the first three months of the year,…. However, that process has been delayed by a drought last year that slowed plantings, and rainfall at harvest time.»

«In contrast, the United States, its biggest rival in global markets, inspected some 8.9 million tonnes for shipment in the month, the highest on record»

«In February Brazilian soy shipments could be as little as 6 million tonnes, down from 8.5 million tonnes initially expected»

«That could spell chaos at Brazilian ports, as by March and April soybeans will be competing with sugar for finite loading capacity»

«Importing countries, particularly China, have been boosting purchases of grains and oilseeds during the pandemic to guard against shipping disruptions or further price increases in agricultural commodities»

«China buys grains and oilseeds from South and North America to make livestock feed»

«The nearly 5.6 million tonnes bound for China from U.S. ports last month represented the largest-ever January U.S. soy shipments to the world’s top importer of the foodstuff»

«Despite the delay to its harvest, Brazil, which sells the bulk of its soy to China, is poised to reap a record 133 million tonne crop in coming months»

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Cina. Giugno. Import petrolio +15%, soia brasiliana +91%, rame 656,483 ton.

Canada. La canola (colza) è schizzata a 700 dollari canadesi per tonnellata.

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Il problema alimentare è una grande sfida a livello mondiale.

Stati Uniti, Brasile e Russia sono grandi produttori ed esportatori di granaglie.

In questo particolare momento, la Cina importa soia al massimo delle capacità produttive, specialmente per usarla quale componente dei mangimi e per ricostituire le scorte strategiche. Non solo. Adesso la Cina sta anche cercando di ricostituire gli allevamenti suini, falcidiati in passato da patologie infettive.

Questo è uno dei tanti punti deboli della Cina: nel settore alimentare non è autosufficiante.

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Brazil’s slow soybean harvest widens U.S. export window.

Harvesting delays in Brazil, the world’s top soybean producer, are prompting buyers led by China to rely on rival exporter the United States for longer than usual in 2021, according to government data and traders.

Sustained demand for U.S. soybeans is accelerating an historic drawdown of U.S. supplies of the oilseed and could further drive up soybean prices at a time of rising food inflation as countries hoard staples during the pandemic.

Concerns over tight global soybean supplies after China dramatically increased purchases in recent months ignited a 4.5% U.S. soybean futures rally last month to a 6-1/2-year high.

Brazil usually harvests its soybeans in the first three months of the year, marking an end to the dominance of U.S. exports. However, that process has been delayed by a drought last year that slowed plantings, and rainfall at harvest time.

The country’s shipments of soybeans in January were 28 times lower than a year before at 49,500 tonnes, an amount insufficient to fill up a single vessel, Brazilian trade data showed.

In contrast, the United States, its biggest rival in global markets, inspected some 8.9 million tonnes for shipment in the month, the highest on record, according to United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) data.

Anec, a Brazilian group representing grain exporters like Cargill and Bunge, confirmed current shortages in Brazil may give competitors an edge.

“We assume this is happening,” Anec director Sergio Mendes said by telephone, adding Brazil’s low soy availability is elongating the U.S. export window.

In February Brazilian soy shipments could be as little as 6 million tonnes, down from 8.5 million tonnes initially expected, Anec has said.

Brazil’s supplies are only expected to normalize by March, one large trader told Reuters.

That could spell chaos at Brazilian ports, as by March and April soybeans will be competing with sugar for finite loading capacity.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, the trader said it is tapping grain suppliers in the United States and Argentina. Much of the burden will fall on the United States, as Argentina’s soy harvest does not start until March.

Importing countries, particularly China, have been boosting purchases of grains and oilseeds during the pandemic to guard against shipping disruptions or further price increases in agricultural commodities.

China buys grains and oilseeds from South and North America to make livestock feed. It is currently rebuilding its hog herd after a deadly pig disease killed millions of animals.

The nearly 5.6 million tonnes bound for China from U.S. ports last month represented the largest-ever January U.S. soy shipments to the world’s top importer of the foodstuff.

January shipments to other top U.S. soy buyers Mexico and Egypt were also the largest on record, USDA data show.

U.S. soybean stocks are expected to shrink to the smallest in seven years just before the northern hemisphere harvest ramps up in September.

At that point the country is expected to have just 9.5 days’ worth of soybean supplies, the tightest on record and down sharply from the seven-week supply held at the same point last year, according to a Reuters analysis of USDA data.

Despite the delay to its harvest, Brazil, which sells the bulk of its soy to China, is poised to reap a record 133 million tonne crop in coming months.

In an indication it thinks any shortfalls from a slow start to Brazil’s harvest will be made up by Sept. 1, the USDA this week left its 2020/21 projection for Brazilian exports unchanged, while raising its U.S. soybean export forecast by 550,000 tonnes.

However, with strong demand and uncertainty surrounding logistical issues at ports, it remains unclear whether that will ease upward pressure on prices, according to analysts and traders.

Pubblicato in: Brasile, Devoluzione socialismo

Brasile. Elezioni politiche. Bolsonaro sembrerebbe essere favorito.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-01-23.

Brasile. Minas Gerais 002

A novembre la produzione industriale del Brasile evidenziava un +2.8% anno su anno.

Brasile. Il sistema economico sembrerebbe essere in netta ripresa.

Brasile. Adesso è il terzo fornitore della Cina di petrolio.

Brasile. Bolsonaro nomina Kassio Nunes alla Suprema Corte.

Brasile. Bolsonaro sale molto nei sondaggi. Liberal angustiati e tormentati.

Brasile. Jair Bolsonaro. Datafolha. Popolarità mai così alta al 37%, Consenso 47%.

Brasile. Giugno. PMI in crescita, ma ancora in fascia di contrazione.

Brasile. Archiviati decenni di socialismo si avvia alla rinascita economia.

Tra un mese si terranno in Brasile le elezioni politiche e le formazioni del Presidente Jair Bolsonaro sembrerebbero essere favorite.

«This is the beginning of Brazil’s liberation from socialism, political correctness and a bloated state»

2020-11-07__ Pil ppa 013

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«Despite a deep recession and the world’s second-deadliest COVID-19 outbreak, candidates backed by Brazil’s right-wing president Jair Bolsonaro are expected to win control of Congress next month, politicians and analysts said on Monday»

«Bolsonaro is openly supporting center-right Congressman Arthur Lira for speaker of the lower chamber against centrist Baleia Rossi, who has the backing of current Speaker Rodrigo Maia and lawmakers keeping their distance from the president»

«Lira, who cast himself as fiscally conservative in a written exchange with Reuters, has more than the 257-vote majority needed »

«Yet polls show Bolsonaro has retained public support in the crisis, with 37% of those polled calling him a “good” or “great” president»

«His favored candidate in the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco of the Democrats party, has a clear lead to become president of the Senate, by 46 senators to 33 for his rival Simone Tebet»

* * * * * * *

«This is the beginning of Brazil’s liberation from socialism, political correctness and a bloated state»

Un mese passa rapidamente.

*


Bolsonaro allies set to win control of Brazil’s Congress.

Despite a deep recession and the world’s second-deadliest COVID-19 outbreak, candidates backed by Brazil’s right-wing president Jair Bolsonaro are expected to win control of Congress next month, politicians and analysts said on Monday.

Bolsonaro is openly supporting center-right Congressman Arthur Lira for speaker of the lower chamber against centrist Baleia Rossi, who has the backing of current Speaker Rodrigo Maia and lawmakers keeping their distance from the president.

Lira, who cast himself as fiscally conservative in a written exchange with Reuters, has more than the 257-vote majority needed, according to risk consultancy Arko. That means an uphill battle for Rossi and the left-wing parties he is courting, which favor more help for low-income Brazilians hurt by the pandemic.

With more than 8.5 million confirmed COVID-19 cases and over 209,000 deaths – second only to the United States – the second wave of Brazil’s outbreak is likely to raise pressure on the government to spend more, widening its huge budget deficit.

Hospitals in the jungle city of Manaus are overwhelmed again, prompting pot-banging protests in Brazil’s largest cities over the handling of the pandemic by Bolsonaro, who has repeatedly denied the gravity of the virus.

On the economic front, Ford Motor Co announced last week it was shutting production in Brazil and cutting about 5,000 jobs, in a symbolic blow for a country that likely suffered its worst recession on record in 2020.

Yet polls show Bolsonaro has retained public support in the crisis, with 37% of those polled calling him a “good” or “great” president in both August and December surveys by pollster Datafolha. That solid support, along with a growing willingness to discuss traditional horse-trading in Congress, have helped him secure a political base of center-right lawmakers.

His favored candidate in the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco of the Democrats party, has a clear lead to become president of the Senate, by 46 senators to 33 for his rival Simone Tebet, according to Arko.

Pacheco even has the backing of the leftist Workers Party (PT) that see him opposing Bolsonaro’s more controversial views such as easing gun ownership rules and denying climate change.

“Pacheco is not an extreme free-market exponent and would not agree to the blanket privatization of state companies,” PT Senator Jean Paul Prates said in a telephone interview.

Lira has said his priority if elected speaker of the lower house on Feb. 1 was an emergency bill that would give the federal and local governments more room to handle spending but avoid then breaching Brazil’s legally mandated spending cap.

He told Reuters, however, that Congress had to find an alternative to extending last year’s emergency transfers to low-income Brazilians that cost 322 billion reais ($61 billion) and blew a record hole in the government’s finances.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Brasile, Cina, Devoluzione socialismo, India, Regno Unito, Russia

Commissione EU. Previsioni. Una lista di desideri quasi utopici.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-01-05.

2021-01-02 Pil Mondiale Statista 013

Riportate in fotocopia sono le previsioni al 2024 di World Bank e dell’IMF.

Sono previsioni ancora peggiori di quelle rilasciate dal Cber.

Usa. Cber. Previsioni. Marcia trionfale di Cina e Paesi asiatici.

Ma per fortuna la Commissione Europea sfodera un simpaticissimo ottimismo. Perché non crederle?

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Ue: le stime sul Pil, l’economia dell’Italia non tornerà ai livelli pre-pandemia nel 2022.

“L’Italia si sta riprendendo da un profondo calo della produzione, ma la pandemia e le sue ripercussioni negative persistono e pesano sull’attività economica, in particolare sui servizi. E’ improbabile che la ripresa sia sufficiente a far tornare la produzione ai livelli pre-pandemici entro il 2022”: lo scrive la Commissione Ue nelle previsioni economiche che vedono per il Pil italiano una contrazione più moderata per il 2020 (-9,9%) ma anche una crescita più lenta nel 2021 (4,1%) rispetto alle previsioni di luglio (-11,2% e 6,1%).

In Italia “la copertura estesa degli schemi di integrazione salariale (Cassa integrazione guadagni) e il divieto di licenziamenti fino all’anno prossimo è probabile che preverranno l’ampia perdita di occupazione nel 2020. I lavoratori temporanei hanno sostenuto il peso maggiore dell’aggiustamento del mercato del lavoro finora, ma è improbabile che quelli permanenti restino illesi una volta che le misure di emergenza finiranno”, scrive ancora  la Commissione Ue. Il tasso di disoccupazione salirà quindi all’11,6% l’anno prossimo, “con la maggioranza dei posti persi nel settore servizi” .

Dopo un forte aumento nel 2020, deficit e debito rallenteranno nel 2021 e 2022″, scrive la Commissione nelle previsioni economiche che vedono il deficit italiano salire al 10,8% nel 2020 e scendere al 7,8% nel 2021. Per la Ue la risposta alla crisi, con supporto di imprese e lavoratori, ha avuto un impatto del 5,5% sul fronte della spesa. Il debito invece salirà “nettamente” dal 134,7% del 2019 al 159,6% in 2020 “prima di scendere lentamente verso il 159% nel 2022 grazie alla crescita del Pil”. Bruxelles aggiunge anche che “le misure di liquidità alle imprese, comprese le garanzie statali, implicano alcuni rischi sulle proiezioni del debito”.

Nelle ultime settimane siamo di fronte alla recrudescenza della pandemia e sono state adottate nuove misure di contenimento. Il rimbalzo è stato interrotto. La crescita è destinata a fermarsi nel quarto trimestre, e riprenderà a salire a partire dal primo trimestre del 2021″: lo ha detto il commissario europeo all’economia Paolo Gentiloni.

“Non credo che oggi ci sia preoccupazione alcuna sulla sostenibilità dei debiti, c’è necessità nel medio periodo di mettere il debito in un percorso di sostenibilità e credo che la preoccupazione sia pienamente condivisa dal governo italiano”, ha detto il commissario all’Economia rispondendo a una domanda durante la presentazione delle previsioni economiche.