Giuseppe Sandro Mela.
2022-09-21.
Credersi che i russi, che sono slavi, ragionino e si comportino secondo i canoni occidentali sarebbe un grande errore.
I mongoli diventano temibili quando si ritiravano.
È tutto da vedere se gli ukraini siano avanzati oppure i russi si siano ritirati per intrappolarli. Infatti gli ukraini si sono trascinati tutti gli armamenti sofisticati loro dati dall’occidente, ma questi senza corrente elettrica diventano inservibili.
Russia. Blackout completo nella Ukraina dell’est, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia e Odesa.
I media occidentali non ne parlano. Ma il blackout esiste.
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«Living with no electricity might not be as easy as you may think and you not realise how many items in your home rely on it to function. Electrically managed technologies supply us with many things, such as heat, food, water, transport, energy, entertainment and communication. Electricity allows us to power the technology we use every day. If you plan on trying to live without electricity, you will no longer be able to turn on the central heating in your home, use the toilet, preserve food in your fridge/freezer or have clean running water.» [EC4U]
«Russia has already launched intense shelling on the Kharkiv region, starting Sunday night, leaving it without electricity and water.»
«The centre of Ukraine’s second city Kharkiv was plunged into darkness on Sunday evening by an electricity blackout, a Reuters reporter said. The cause and extent of the blackout in the northeastern city were not immediately clear. There were also unconfirmed social media reports of blackouts in other places and regions.» [Reuters]
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La Russia ha mantenuto un riserbo sulle sue ultime sconfitte in Ucraina e gli strateghi temono che Mosca possa cercare di punire severamente Kiev per le sue vittorie sul campo di battaglia nel tentativo di salvare la faccia. Ora si pensa a una potenziale rappresaglia russa: il ministro della Difesa ucraino Oleksii Reznikov ha dichiarato al Financial Times di aspettarsi un contrattacco. Una controffensiva libera un territorio e poi bisogna controllarlo ed essere pronti a difenderlo, ha detto Reznikov, aggiungendo: Certo, dobbiamo essere preoccupati, questa guerra ci preoccupa da anni. La Russia ha già lanciato intensi bombardamenti sulla regione di Kharkiv, a partire da domenica notte, lasciandola senza elettricità e acqua.
Inoltre, aumenta la volontà russa di infliggere agli ucraini una punizione simile a quella di Grozny, sia in termini di infliggere vittime di massa all’Ucraina attraverso un maggior numero di bersagli nei centri urbani, sia, nel peggiore dei casi, utilizzando armi chimiche o addirittura nucleari tattiche sul campo di battaglia per seminare il panico di massa. Di conseguenza, Putin si trova ad affrontare una crescente pressione per rispondere a dinamiche sempre più sfavorevoli sul fronte, che potrebbero includere mosse di escalation o richieste di avviare trattative per il cessate il fuoco.
Oppure un’escalation con mobilitazione di massa e armi di distruzione di massa (WMD), o forse il livellamento indiscriminato delle città ucraine in stile siriano.
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«Russia has been tight-lipped about its latest defeats in Ukraine, and strategists fear Moscow could look to punish Kyiv severely for its victories on the battlefield in an effort to save face. Now thoughts are turning to potential Russian retaliation, with Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov telling the Financial Times he was expecting a counterattack. “A counteroffensive liberates territory and after that you have to control it and be ready to defend it, Reznikov said, adding, Of course, we have to be worried, this war has worried us for years. Russia has already launched intense shelling on the Kharkiv region, starting Sunday night, leaving it without electricity and water.»
«Further, it makes Russian willingness to mete out Grozny-like ‘punishment’ onto the Ukrainians higher, both in terms of inflicting mass casualties on Ukraine through greater targeting of urban centers, as well as, in the worst case, using chemical or even tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield to sow mass panic. As a result, Putin faces growing pressure to respond to increasingly unfavorable dynamics on the frontline, which might include either escalatory moves or calls to start ceasefire talks»
«Or escalate with mass mobilisation and WMD [weapon of mass destruction], or perhaps Syrian style indiscriminate levelling of Ukrainian cities»
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Russia’s defeats in Ukraine have strategists worried about Moscow’s next move
– Strategists fear Moscow could look to punish Kyiv severely for its victories on the battlefield in an effort to save face.
– Kyiv’s forces launched a massive counterattack in the northeast of the country, reclaiming thousands of kilometers of Russian-occupied land over the last few days.
– “Moscow faces a stark choice now I think: face humiliating defeat in Ukraine … and sue for peace,” strategist Timothy Ash said. “Or escalate with mass mobilisation and WMD [weapon of mass destruction].”
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Russia has been tight-lipped about its latest defeats in Ukraine, and strategists fear Moscow could look to punish Kyiv severely for its victories on the battlefield in an effort to save face.
Kyiv’s forces launched a massive counterattack in the northeast of the country, reclaiming thousands of kilometers of Russian-occupied land over the last few days.
Now thoughts are turning to potential Russian retaliation, with Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov telling the Financial Times he was expecting a counterattack. “A counteroffensive liberates territory and after that you have to control it and be ready to defend it,” Reznikov said, adding, “Of course, we have to be worried, this war has worried us for years.”
Russia has already launched intense shelling on the Kharkiv region, starting Sunday night, leaving it without electricity and water. Ukraine’s deputy defense minister told Reuters it was too early to say Ukraine had full control of the area.
Close followers of the Kremlin say President Vladimir Putin is likely weighing his options now.
“The military story for the Kremlin is becoming worse,” Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group president, said in a note Monday. “To the extent that continues, it pressures Putin into calling for a mobilization — likely a partial one but still a politically and socially costly move for the Russian president at home, that will force him into declaring war with Ukraine, and tacitly admitting that Russia is facing military problems,” he said in emailed comments. Russia has insisted on calling its invasion of Ukraine a “special military operation,” not a war.
“Further, it makes Russian willingness to mete out Grozny-like ‘punishment’ onto the Ukrainians higher, both in terms of inflicting mass casualties on Ukraine through greater targeting of urban centers, as well as, in the worst case, using chemical or even tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield to sow mass panic,” Bremmer added.
“If there’s a likely near-term change in the russia war going forward, it’s escalatory and not a negotiated breakthrough.”
Frustration rising
Ukraine’s victories on the battlefield in recent days, and its ability to reclaim dozens of towns and villages in the Kharkiv region, puts Russia on the back foot. It is now scrambling to defend its territory in Donetsk and Luhansk, where two pro-Russian “republics” are located, in the Donbas in eastern Ukraine.
Russian forces are widely believed to have been taken by surprise by Ukraine’s counterattack in the northeast of the country and were heavily outnumbered. There were signs that Russian forces had beaten a hasty retreat, with stores of equipment and ammunition abandoned.
Ahead of these counterattacks in the northeast, Kyiv had heavily promoted a counteroffensive in the south of Ukraine — leading Russia to redeploy troops there.
On Monday, the Kremlin’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, said Russia’s aims in Ukraine remain the same — to “liberate” the Donbas — and insisted that fighting would continue.
There are rumblings of discontent in Russia, however, with even staunch supporters of the Kremlin questioning the war in public forums, including on state-run TV.
“We’ve been told that everything is going according to plan. Does anyone really believe that six months ago the plan was to be leaving [the city of] Balakliya, repelling a counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region and failing to take over Kharkiv?” usually pro-Putin political expert Viktor Olevich said on the state-run NTV channel, the Moscow Times reported.
Another public figure, former lawmaker Boris Nadezhdin, said that Russia would not win the war if it continued to fight as it was, and said that there needed to be “either mobilization and full-scale war, or we get out.”
Analysts at global risk consultancy Teneo noted in emailed comments Monday evening that military losses and the humiliation of Russian troops “pose risks to President Vladimir Putin’s regime, as domestic criticism of the conduct of the so-called special military operation is mounting from various sides.”
“As a result, Putin faces growing pressure to respond to increasingly unfavorable dynamics on the frontline, which might include either escalatory moves or calls to start ceasefire talks,” they added.
Putin’s ‘stark choice’
Putin’s regime now faces a difficult choice; the war is dragging on and its undersupplied forces are likely becoming demoralized as they come under pressure from Ukraine’s well-organized and well-armed army.
“Moscow faces a stark choice now I think: face humiliating defeat in Ukraine — which seems inevitable given the current troop force deployments, supply chains and momentum on Ukraine’s side — and sue for peace,” Timothy Ash, senior emerging markets sovereign strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, said in a note Monday.
“Or escalate with mass mobilisation and WMD [weapon of mass destruction], or perhaps Syrian style indiscriminate levelling of Ukrainian cities.”
Ash said Putin had likely balked at the mass mobilization option, which would put Russia on a war footing and see the conscription of many of its citizens. The “risk is that they come home in body bags and cause domestic social and political unrest in Russia,” he said, but added that Putin was also unlikely to resort to unconventional weapons — such as WMDs.
“Putin had the chance and failed to pull the trigger as he knows these are only really deterrents and once he does unleash them we are in a whole new ball game, risk of World War 3, and a chain of events which will be very difficult to manage but where he is clearly seen as the aggressor/mad guy and loses most of his friends internationally, including China, et al,” Ash added.
He said that, after what he expected would be intensive airstrikes in Ukraine, Putin might attempt to begin “serious” peace talks. “But he will have to hurry up as the ground in Ukraine, and possibly even Moscow, is shifting quickly under his feet,” Ash noted.
“At this stage a total collapse of Russian forces across Ukraine is entirely possible – including that held before Feb. 24, including Crimea, and even talk about potential splits in Moscow and risks to Putin’s stay in power. Watch this space.”
SenzaNubi 