Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Cina, Devoluzione socialismo, India, Regno Unito, Russia, Stati Uniti

Mondo. Proiezioni delle nazioni al 2050. Il trionfo dell’oriente. – Bloomberg.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-01-04.

2022-01-01__ Proiezini GDP PPP al 2050 001

Pwc ha reso disponibile il report The World in 20250.

È un testo particolarmente lungo, per cui ne forniremo solo alcuni abstract.

* * * * * * *

«In our latest World in 2050 report we present economic growth projections for 32 of the largest economies in the world, accounting for around 84% of global GDP »

«But we expect a slowdown in global growth after 2020, as the rate of expansion in China and some other major emerging economies moderates to a more sustainable long-term rate, and as working age population growth slows in many large economies»

«China has already overtaken the US in 2014 to become the largest economy in purchasing power parity (PPP2) terms»

«In market exchange rate (MER) terms, we project China to overtake the US in 2028 despite its projected growth slowdown»

«The US could be down to third place in the global GDP rankings while the EU27’s share of world GDP could fall below 10% by 2050»

«We project new emerging economies like Mexico and Indonesia to be larger than the UK and France by 2030 (in PPP terms) while Turkey could become larger than Italy. Nigeria and Vietnam could be the fast growing large economies over the period to 2050»

«These are based on a model that takes account of projected trends in demographics, capital investment, education levels and technological progress»

«India’s share of world GDP in PPP terms could increase steadily from just under 7% in 2014 to around 13.5% in 2050»

«Our model projects that Indonesia (9th in 2014) and Brazil (7th in 2014) could rise to amongst the top 5 largest economies by 2050 in terms of GDP at PPPs»

Nota. La proiezione della EU27 deriva da un conto aggiornato.

* * * * * * *

Questa Tabella conferma sostanzialmente le precedenti.

Entro il 2050, ossia tra trenta anni, il blocco asiatico avrà a livello mondiale il predominio economico indiscusso.

Ciò che Bloomberg denomina ‘Free Economies’ altro non sarebbe che l’enclave liberal socialista occidentale, sempre poi che a tale data esista ancora. A tale data il suo spopolamento degli autoctoni sarà altamente drammatico.

L’occidente è destinato a scomparire, non tanto per la aggressività dei cinesi quanto piuttosto per la sua ideologia suicida.

Ci si metta quindi l’anima in pace. Quello delineato sarà il mondo i cui vivranno i nostri figli e nipoti.

* * * * * * *


Only 26% of World GDP to Come From Free Economies in 2050. – Bloomberg

«                       Highlights

In our latest World in 2050 report we present economic growth projections for 32 of the largest economies in the world, accounting for around 84% of global GDP.

We project the world economy to grow at an average of just over 3% per annum in the period 2014 – 50, doubling in size by 2037 and nearly tripling by 2050.

But we expect a slowdown in global growth after 2020, as the rate of expansion in China and some other major emerging economies moderates to a more sustainable long-term rate, and as working age population growth slows in many large economies.

The global economic power shift1 away from the established advanced economies in North America, Western Europe and Japan will continue over the next 35 years. China has already overtaken the US in 2014 to become the largest economy in purchasing power parity (PPP2) terms. In market exchange rate (MER) terms, we project China to overtake the US in 2028 despite its projected growth slowdown.

India has the potential to become the second largest economy in the world by 2050 in PPP terms (third in MER terms), although this requires a sustained programme of structural reforms3.

We project new emerging economies like Mexico and Indonesia to be larger than the UK and France by 2030 (in PPP terms) while Turkey could become larger than Italy. Nigeria and Vietnam could be the fast growing large economies over the period to 2050.

Colombia, Poland and Malaysia all possess great potential for sustainable long-term growth in the coming decades according to our country experts.

At the same time, recent experience has re-emphasised that relatively rapid growth is not guaranteed for emerging economies, as indicated by recent problems in Russia and Brazil, for example. It requires sustained and effective investment in infrastructure and improving political, economic, legal and social institutions. It also requires remaining open to the free flow of technology, ideas and talented people that are key drivers of economic catch-up growth.

We think that overdependence on natural resources could also impede long term growth in some countries (e.g. Russia, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia) unless they can diversify their economies.

                         Key findings: GDP projections to 2050

This report updates our long-term global economic growth projections4, which were last published in January 2013. These are based on a model that takes account of projected trends in demographics, capital investment, education levels and technological progress. We have updated both the base year data (from 2011 to 2014) and future assumptions on the key drivers of growth, as well as expanding the coverage of the model from 24 to 32 countries (now accounting for around 84% of total world GDP at PPP exchange rates).

The changing league table of world GDP in PPP terms is shown in Table 1. China is already the world’s biggest economy in PPP terms, and we project that India could have the potential to just overtake the US as the world’s second largest economy by 2050 in PPP terms (although the projected difference is small relative to the margin of uncertainty around any such projections).

We project that the gap between the three biggest economies (i.e. China, India and the US) and the rest of the world will widen over the next few decades. In 2014, the third biggest economy in PPP terms (India) is around 50% larger than the fourth biggest economy (Japan). In 2050, the third biggest economy in PPP terms (the US) is projected to be approximately 240% larger than the fourth biggest economy (Indonesia).

The rise of Indonesia and Nigeria through the world rankings throughout the period to 2050 is very striking: Indonesia rises from 9th in 2014 to 4th in 2050, and Nigeria rises from 20th in 2014 to 9th in 2050.

However, average income per capita (i.e. GDP per capita) will still be significantly higher in the advanced economies than the emerging economies in 2050. The current gap in income per capita between developing and developed countries is just too large to bridge fully over this period.»

Pubblicato in: Armamenti, Russia

Russia. I Generali Moroz e Zima non sono ancora arrivati. Ma siamo solo agli inizi.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-01-08.

Generale Inverno 001

«Russia’s winter defeated Napoleon Bonaparte and Adolf Hitler»

«The bitter season has played such a historic role against the nation’s enemies that it now enjoys military rank, popularly known as General Moroz and General Zima (that is, “frost” and “winter”)»

«If President Vladimir Putin was counting on Moroz and Zima, the commanders have yet to show up at the Western front»

«Mild weather has so far crushed heating demand — and soothed the European market panic about supply that saw natural gas prices shoot up to record highs»

«On New Year’s Eve, the mean temperature in north-west Europe was nearly 12 degrees Celsius, about 9 degrees above the 30-year average»

«For Europe, which imports 40% of its gas from Russia, it has been an economic and geopolitical reprieve»

«From an all-time high of nearly 188 euros ($212.95) per megawatt hour on Dec. 21, gas plunged to a low of €65.40 per MWh on Dec. 31, an unprecedented 65% drop in just eight trading days»

«Gas isn’t just used for heating and industries — Europe burns lots of it to generate electricity»

«So far, though, the less-than-frigid season has reduced the risk that gas in storage would plunge to the much-feared lows»

«As things stand, a normal winter would leave stocks at around 240 TWh by the end of March — still the third lowest level ever, but not as bad as many feared»

«Temperatures are expected to drop to seasonal levels again today, increasing demand»

«Gas prices have climbed up back to nearly €100 per MWh — still about 45% below the most recent peak, but also far above the 2010-2019 average of roughly €20 per MWh»

«Gazprom, the Kremlin-controlled gas exporter, has reduced supplies into Europe significantly in recent days in response to lower demand»

«Look at the calendar: spring in the northern hemisphere is still 73 days away, Generals Moroz and Zima have time to show their mettle»

* * * * * * *

L’inverno è appena iniziato.

Diamo tempo al tempo, ed i Generali Moroz e Zima possono sempre dispiegare tutta la loro forza.

* * * * * * *


Russia’s Winter Generals Have Yet to Show Up at the Gas War.

Russia’s winter defeated Napoleon Bonaparte and Adolf Hitler. The bitter season has played such a historic role against the nation’s enemies that it now enjoys military rank, popularly known as General Moroz and General Zima (that is, “frost” and “winter”). In the great European natural gas battle of 2021-22, however, the weather has so far worked against Moscow. If President Vladimir Putin was counting on Moroz and Zima, the commanders have yet to show up at the Western front.

Mild weather has so far crushed heating demand — and soothed the European market panic about supply that saw natural gas prices shoot up to record highs. In recent days, London, Berlin and Paris have enjoyed a spring-like weather. On New Year’s Eve, the mean temperature in north-west Europe was nearly 12 degrees Celsius, about 9 degrees above the 30-year average. A few cities were even warmer: Zurich and Frankfurt stood at 13 degrees Celsius, compared with a normal level of around freezing for both. For Europe, which imports 40% of its gas from Russia, it has been an economic and geopolitical reprieve.

From an all-time high of nearly 188 euros ($212.95) per megawatt hour on Dec. 21, gas plunged to a low of €65.40 per MWh on Dec. 31, an unprecedented 65% drop in just eight trading days. Gas isn’t just used for heating and industries — Europe burns lots of it to generate electricity. And so the mild weather has avoided the worse-case scenario: blackouts. U.S. shiploads of liquefied natural gas (LNG) have also helped push prices down – quite an irony since European countries vehemently opposed fracking, the technique that has unlocked American gas.

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Before the spell of mild winter, Europe was heading into a full-blown crisis: Gas inventories were well-below the 5- and 10-year averages. On Christmas Day, Europe had the equivalent of 629 terawatts hours of gas in storage. If a normal winter ensued, estimated inventories would fall to below 200 TWh by the end of the heating season in late March. That would be the lowest on record. A colder-than-normal winter, like the one in 2017-18, would have cut gas stocks to about 90 TWh, a shivering 50% below the previous all-time low. Many traders said the stability of the gas network would be jeopardized if inventories dropped that low. They expected prices to rise to ultra-high levels and result in “demand destruction” — with energy-intensive industries like aluminum smelters and glass manufactures forced to shut down. Spurred by the alarm, gas prices jumped to an all-time high on Dec. 21.

So far, though, the less-than-frigid season has reduced the risk that gas in storage would plunge to the much-feared lows. Over New Year, European gas stocks actually increased for four consecutive days, something that had never happened before over the same period. As things stand, a normal winter would leave stocks at around 240 TWh by the end of March — still the third lowest level ever, but not as bad as many feared. A cold winter would cut them to about 140 TWh, a record low, but above the catastrophic 100 TWh barrier associated with blackouts.

Europe may have avoided a calamity — but the continent isn’t out of the woods. Temperatures are expected to drop to seasonal levels again today, increasing demand. Gas prices have climbed up back to nearly €100 per MWh — still about 45% below the most recent peak, but also far above the 2010-2019 average of roughly €20 per MWh. Regional gas inventories are likely to end the 2021-22 winter extremely low, so high prices are going to continue into the summer, and likely into the 2022-23 winter, too.

Meanwhile, Russia is keeping a tight grip on the region. Gazprom, the Kremlin-controlled gas exporter, has reduced supplies into Europe significantly in recent days in response to lower demand. Gas hasn’t flowed into Germany via the key Yamal-Europe pipeline for 15 consecutive days — something that had never happened in the middle of the winter. An additional choke point: the thousands of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine, through which much of Europe’s gas transits.

In the U.S. television drama The West Wing, the fictitious American President Josiah Bartlet asks the Russian ambassador how Moscow cultivated its geopolitical nerve. “From a long, hard winter, Mr. President,” said the envoy. Look at the calendar: spring in the northern hemisphere is still 73 days away. Generals Moroz and Zima have time to show their mettle.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Diplomazia, Russia

Mr Putin e Mr Xi rafforzano la collaborazione dopo il Colloquio.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-12-25.

Eurasia 001

Mr Putin e Mr Xi hanno avuto un colloquio televisivo, denso di argomenti trattati e di sostanziali progressi. Non tutti i contenuti sono noti.

* * * * * * *

«Russia and China should stand firm in rejecting Western interference and defending each other’s security interests»

«Their conversation, eight days after Putin spoke to U.S. President Joe Biden in a similar format, underscored how shared hostility to the West is bringing Moscow and Beijing closer together»

«At present, certain international forces under the guise of ‘democracy’ and ‘human rights’ are interfering in the internal affairs of China and Russia, and brutally trampling on international law and recognized norms of international relations»

«Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters that Xi had offered support to Putin for his push to obtain binding security guarantees for Russia from the West, saying he understood Moscow’s concerns»

«He said the pair also expressed their “negative view” of the creation of new military alliances such as the AUKUS partnership between Australia, Britain and the United States and the Indo-Pacific “Quad” of Australia, India, Japan and the United States»

«A new model of cooperation has been formed between our countries, based, among other things, on such principles as non-interference in internal affairs and respect for each other’s interests»

«I would like to note that we invariably support each other on issues of international sports cooperation, including rejection of any attempts to politicize sports and the Olympic movement»

«The Russian leader said bilateral trade was up 31% in the first 11 months of this year to $123 billion, and the two countries aimed to exceed $200 billion in the near future»

* * * * * * *

Il blocco sino-russo appare ogni giorno sempre più coeso e potente, sia politicamente sia militarmente sia economicamente, mentre l’enclave liberal socialista occidentale perde in continuazione potere militare, politico ed economico. Sta devolvendosi.

Gli Stati Uniti hanno ben poco da fare i gradassi con l’inflazione al 9.6%, e nel blocco europeo gli alimentari sono aumentati del 16.3% in un anno.

Moriranno schiacciati dalla inflazione che non sanno governare.

Ma non hanno perso il vizietto di voler fare la morale agli altri. Chissà chi mai si credono di essere!

Germania. Prezzi alimentari +16.3% su novembre 2020. Ecco la Fame. – Destatis.

USA. Nov21. Sorella miseria e comare fame portano il Producer Price Index a +9.6%.

Superpotenze militari. Gli equilibri sono rotti. Una guerra è opzione appetibile.

Il missile Zirkon viaggia a Mach 9 nella atmosfera: in sei minuti primi copre mille kilometri.

* * * * * * *


Putin and Xi cement partnership in face of Western pressure

– Xi accuses West of meddling in Chinese affairs

– Kremlin says Xi backs Putin push for security guarantees

– Putin, Xi expected to meet at Beijing Winter Olympics in Feb

– Trade between Russia and China rising sharply – Putin

* * * * * * *

Russia and China should stand firm in rejecting Western interference and defending each other’s security interests, presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping agreed in a video call on Wednesday.

Their conversation, eight days after Putin spoke to U.S. President Joe Biden in a similar format, underscored how shared hostility to the West is bringing Moscow and Beijing closer together.

“At present, certain international forces under the guise of ‘democracy’ and ‘human rights’ are interfering in the internal affairs of China and Russia, and brutally trampling on international law and recognized norms of international relations,” China’s state-run Xinhua news agency quoted Xi as saying.

“China and Russia should increase their joint efforts to more effectively safeguard the security interests of both parties.”

Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters that Xi had offered support to Putin for his push to obtain binding security guarantees for Russia from the West, saying he understood Moscow’s concerns.

He said the pair also expressed their “negative view” of the creation of new military alliances such as the AUKUS partnership between Australia, Britain and the United States and the Indo-Pacific “Quad” of Australia, India, Japan and the United States.

                         PRESSURE.

The call highlighted the ways in which Russia and China are drawing on each other for mutual support at a time of high tension in their relations with the West. China is under pressure over human rights and Russia is accused of threatening behaviour towards Ukraine.

The Kremlin said Putin briefed Xi on his conversation with Biden, in which the U.S. president warned Russia against invading Ukraine – which Moscow denies it is planning – and Putin set out his demand for security pledges.

“A new model of cooperation has been formed between our countries, based, among other things, on such principles as non-interference in internal affairs and respect for each other’s interests,” Putin told Xi.

He said he looked forward to meeting Xi at the Winter Olympics in Beijing in February – an event that the White House last week said U.S. government officials would boycott because of China’s human rights “atrocities” against Muslims in its western region of Xinjiang.

“I would like to note that we invariably support each other on issues of international sports cooperation, including rejection of any attempts to politicize sports and the Olympic movement,” Putin said.

Putin has used Russia’s partnership with China as a way of balancing U.S. influence while striking lucrative deals, especially on energy. He and Xi this year agreed to extend a 20-year friendship and cooperation treaty.

The Russian leader said bilateral trade was up 31% in the first 11 months of this year to $123 billion, and the two countries aimed to exceed $200 billion in the near future.

He said China was becoming an international centre for production of Russia’s Sputnik and Sputnik Light vaccines against COVID-19, with contracts signed with six manufacturers to make more than 150 million doses.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime, Russia, Unione Europea

Blocco Europeo. Gelo in arrivo. Russia riduce le forniture. Gas +600% YoY.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-12-24.

2021-12-22__ EU Gas 001

Le quotazioni del natural gas sono differenti se fornite per i mercati internazionali oppure per quelli europei.

Gran quota delle differenze di prezzo è dovuta al fatto che nel blocco europeo la fornitura di questa materia prima è sottoposta ad una tassazione destinata a finanziare i piani Grüne.

Alla attuale crescita dei prezzi europei si deve aggiungere una meteorologia inclemente, foriera di gelo, la riduzione del gas che i russi immettono dei gasdotti e, da ultimo ma non certo per ultimo, il fatto che gli stati europei stanno chiudendo le centrali atomiche, proprio adesso.

La ciliegina sulla torta è costituita dalla bassa resa dell’eolico in situazioni di gelo.

Come risultato finale il TTF Gas registra un incremento del 668.58% anno su anno.

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«Europe is bracing for energy shortages as freezing weather sets in, boosting demand and sending prices surging with no relief in sight»

«Temperatures are forecast to fall below zero degrees Celsius in several European capitals this week, straining electricity grids already coping with low wind speeds and severe nuclear outages in France»

«To make matters worse, Russia is limiting natural gas flows through a major transit route to Germany Monday after capping supplies over the weekend»

«Energy prices have spiraled this year, with European gas surging some 600%»

«The region’s benchmark gas contract climbed as much as 8.8% Monday, while German year-ahead power, a benchmark in Europe, rose as much as 3.1% to a new record of 250 euros ($282) a megawatt-hour»

«The French contract jumped as much as 9% to a an all-time high»

«In France, day-ahead power rallied to 442.88 euros per megawatt-hour»

«The German contract also soared to the highest on record. Carbon permits jumped 6.2% to 77.84 euros a ton»

«Rising prices have fueled inflation, a headache for policy makers already contending with the spread of the omicron virus variant just before the holiday season»

«Geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine could also make things worse, with a potential invasion likely to send prices even higher»

«Europe could experience rolling blackouts in case of a cold winter»

«That was before Electricite de France SA said it was halting reactors accounting for 10% of the nation’s nuclear capacity, leaving the region at the mercy of the weather at the height of winter in January and February»

«The futures pared some of the gains after Gazprom PJSC booked about 21% of the Yamal-Europe pipeline to Germany for January at a month-ahead capacity auction Monday»

«→→ With nuclear outages biting, electricity producers will have to use more gas to keep the lights on ←←»

«Russia plans for gas flows into Germany via the key Yamal-Europe pipeline to remain capped, potentially forcing Europe to rely on its already depleted inventories»

«Only 4% of capacity was allocated for Monday to send gas through Germany’s Mallnow station»

«Meanwhile, wind power is expected to stay low in Germany»

* * * * * * *


Blocco Europeo. Prezzi alla produzione, PPI, +21.9% anno su anno. Europa kaputt. – Eurostat.

Germania si oppone alla Francia. Il nucleare non sarebbe Grüne.

Germania. Oct21. Manifatturiero. Dipendenti -0.5%, ore lavorate -2.9% anno su anno.

Germania. Wholesales Prices +16.6% rispetto al novembre 2020. – Destatis.

Germania. Prezzi alimentari +16.3% su novembre 2020. Ecco la Fame. – Destatis.

Germania.2021Q3. Il 56.9% delle energia elettrica deriva bruciando carbone importato.

* * * * * * *

A tutto questo sconfortante quadro, se ne aggiunga un fattore forse ancor più micidiale.

All’atto di stabilire i prezzi di vendita, il venditore deve calcolare quanto gli costerà ricomprare ai nuovi prezzi il materiale venduto. Ma in un regime inflattivo al 21.9%, i costi di ricarico salgono in eguale misura, maggiorata di un margine di sicurezza previsionale.

In altri termini, il fornitore deve far pagare in anticipo la inflazione futura.

Questo è un espetto deleterio del processo inflattivo, che fa aumentare sia i prezzi alla produzione sia quelli al consumo, in una spirale senza fine.

* * * * * * *


European Energy Prices Soar as a Deep Freeze Arrives.

– Power prices surge from France to Germany after EDF’s outages

– Gas bookings show Russian flows may remain capped in January

* * *

Europe is bracing for energy shortages as freezing weather sets in, boosting demand and sending prices surging with no relief in sight.

Temperatures are forecast to fall below zero degrees Celsius in several European capitals this week, straining electricity grids already coping with low wind speeds and severe nuclear outages in France. To make matters worse, Russia is limiting natural gas flows through a major transit route to Germany Monday after capping supplies over the weekend. The route is set to be only partially used in January.

Energy prices have spiraled this year, with European gas surging some 600%. The region’s benchmark gas contract climbed as much as 8.8% Monday, while German year-ahead power, a benchmark in Europe, rose as much as 3.1% to a new record of 250 euros ($282) a megawatt-hour. The French contract jumped as much as 9% to a an all-time high.

Short-term electricity also jumped, along with the cost of using dirtier energy sources in Europe. In France, day-ahead power rallied to 442.88 euros per megawatt-hour, the highest since 2009, in an auction Monday. The German contract also soared to the highest on record. Carbon permits jumped 6.2% to 77.84 euros a ton.

Rising prices have fueled inflation, a headache for policy makers already contending with the spread of the omicron virus variant just before the holiday season. Geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine could also make things worse, with a potential invasion likely to send prices even higher. 

Jeremy Weir, chief executive officer of commodities trader Trafigura Group, last month warned that Europe could experience rolling blackouts in case of a cold winter. That was before Electricite de France SA said it was halting reactors accounting for 10% of the nation’s nuclear capacity, leaving the region at the mercy of the weather at the height of winter in January and February.

Benchmark Dutch gas prices jumped to almost 149 euros a megawatt-hour, the highest for a most-active contract since Oct. 6. The futures pared some of the gains after Gazprom PJSC booked about 21% of the Yamal-Europe pipeline to Germany for January at a month-ahead capacity auction Monday. Though limited, it’s a change from the less predictable daily auctions the exporter opted to use for December. 

The auction results “will not ease the risk of very tight supplies — given limited bookings for now,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S. “But with a market clutching straws every little helps.”

With nuclear outages biting, electricity producers will have to use more gas to keep the lights on. Russia plans for gas flows into Germany via the key Yamal-Europe pipeline to remain capped, potentially forcing Europe to rely on its already depleted inventories. Storage sites are only 60% filled, a record-low for this time of year.

Only 4% of capacity was allocated for Monday to send gas through Germany’s Mallnow station, where the pipeline crossing Belarus and Poland terminates. That compares with about 35% of available space that Russia has booked for most days this month. 

There’s no relief to market tightness in sight as temperatures are expected to remain below normal levels in the U.K., Denmark and northern Germany next week. While traders expect liquefied natural gas may help to some extent, due to lower demand in Asia, cargo diversions will take time and increased arrivals at European ports are unlikely to come before January.

Meanwhile, wind power is expected to stay low in Germany until Dec. 23. In France and Britain, generation is forecast to dip on Tuesday, causing further supply issues.

Pubblicato in: Armamenti, Russia

Russia. Il missile ipersonico Zirkon viaggia adesso a Mach 9.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-12-23.

Putin Vladimir 012

Lo Zirkon è un’arma progettata per neutralizzare unità navali maggiori come portaerei, incrociatori e cacciatorpediniere a lunghe distanze. È lanciabile sia da terra, sia da aerei, sia da sottomarini, anche in immersione.

* * * * * * *

«Lo Zirkon è il primo missile da crociera ipersonico al mondo, in grado di effettuare lunghi voli aerodinamici, manovrando in strati densi dell’atmosfera e utilizzando esclusivamente la propria potenza di propulsione»

«La velocità massima del missile raggiunge circa 9 volte la velocità del suono. La sua gittata massima è di 1.000 chilometri»

«”Ora abbiamo testato con successo, e dall’inizio dell’anno ne saremo dotati, nuovi missili ipersonici navali a velocità di 9 Mach”, ha detto Putin»

«Le cose sono arrivate al punto che i sistemi di difesa anti-missile sono schierati in Polonia e Romania, ed i lanciatori che sono lì, gli Mk-41, possono anche essere equipaggiati con sistemi di attacco Tomahawk»

«Questo è una minaccia per noi. Si tratta di dati di fatto, cose ovvie»

«In risposta, siamo stati costretti, voglio sottolineare questo, siamo stati costretti a iniziare a sviluppare armi ipersoniche. Questa è la nostra risposta»

* * * * * * *

Cina. Gli Usa sono indifesi rispetto ai missili ipersonici suborbitali. – Generale Milley.

Cina. I lanciatori dei missili ipersonici DF-17 sono diventati stealth.

Cina. Testato un missile atomico ipersonico suborbitale. Usa colti di sorpresa.

Biden dice di essere ‘preoccupato’ dei missili ipersonici cinesi e russi. La prossima guerra.

Armamenti Nucleari. È in atto una corsa al riarmo per la prossima guerra.

Russia. Nuovi o perfezionati missili ipersonici. Kh-47M2 Kinzhal e 3M22 Zircon.

Russia. I missili intercontinentali ipersonici Avangard sono operativi.

Russian anti-satellite missile test draws condemnation

Russia’s city-destroying super-nuke Avangard that travels at TWENTY times the speed of sound will be ready for take-off next year

Missili ipersonici: rottura dell’attuale stabilità strategica tra Stati Uniti, Cina e Russia e rivoluzione nelle tattiche militari

Superpotenze militari. Gli equilibri sono rotti. Una guerra è opzione appetibile.

* * * * * * *

La velocità del suono varia a seconda del mezzo: ad esempio, il suono si propaga più velocemente nell’acqua che non nell’aria. In termini medi, la velocità del suono è 331.2 metri al secondo, ossia 1,192.32 km/ora.

Muoversi nella atmosfera ad una velocità di Mach 9, significa viaggiare a 10,730.88 km all’ora.

Ciò significa che lo Zirkon copre i mille kilometri di gittata in un decimo di ora, ossia circa sei minuti primi.

In altri termini, non lascia nemmeno il tempo di individuarlo, ammesso che si disponga di radar capaci di tracciarlo.

Ci si pensi bene.

Gli equilibri militari tra Russia, Cina e Stati Uniti sono rotti, rendendo sempre più verosimile la possibilità di una guerra nucleare.

* * * * * * *


Putin: presto la Russia avrà nuovo missile ipersonico con velocità massima di 9 Mach.

All’inizio di novembre, il presidente russo Vladimir Putin ha dichiarato che i test dei missili ipersonici Zirkon sono quasi ultimati.

Vladimir Putin ha affermato che nel prossimo futuro la Russia avrà a disposizioni armi ipersoniche con una velocità di 9 Mach.

“Ora abbiamo testato con successo, e dall’inizio dell’anno ne saremo dotati, nuovi missili ipersonici navali a velocità di 9 Mach”, ha detto Putin.

Mosca sta sviluppando armi ipersoniche, in risposta alle azioni della Nato, che rappresentano una minaccia per la Russia, ha affermato il presidente Vladimir Putin.

“Le cose sono arrivate al punto che i sistemi di difesa anti-missile sono schierati in Polonia e Romania, ed i lanciatori che sono lì, gli Mk-41, possono anche essere equipaggiati con sistemi di attacco Tomahawk. Questo è una minaccia per noi. Si tratta di dati di fatto, cose ovvie. Nonostante tutte le nostre richieste di non farlo, cosa è successo? Quello che vediamo ora. In risposta, siamo stati costretti, voglio sottolineare questo, siamo stati costretti a iniziare a sviluppare armi ipersoniche. Questa è la nostra risposta.” ha osservato il presidente russo.

A sua volta, il portavoce del Cremlino Dmitry Peskov ha indicato un aumento delle “azioni provocatorie”. In particolare, Peskov ha fatto riferimento all’intensificarsi della ricognizione aerea della Nato nella regione del Mar Nero.

Lo Zirkon è il primo missile da crociera ipersonico al mondo, in grado di effettuare lunghi voli aerodinamici, manovrando in strati densi dell’atmosfera e utilizzando esclusivamente la propria potenza di propulsione. La velocità massima del missile raggiunge circa 9 volte la velocità del suono. La sua gittata massima è di 1.000 chilometri.

Pubblicato in: Armamenti, Regno Unito, Russia, Unione Europea

Regno Unito ed EU. Non difenderanno militarmente l’Ukraina se fosse invasa.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-12-22.

Ukraina 002

«→→ That would mean Nato not playing any role at all in any of the three Baltic republics or Poland, as well as having to abandon any plans for Ukraine and Georgia to eventually join the Western alliance ←←»

«Ukraine was not a member of Nato, so it is highly unlikely that anyone is going to send troops into Ukraine to challenge Russia»

* * * * * * *

«Britain and its allies are “highly unlikely” to send troops to defend Ukraine if Russia invades the country, the UK’s defence secretary has said»

«Russia has moved thousands of troops near Ukraine’s eastern borders»

«On Friday, Russia demanded strict limits on the activities of the US-led Nato military alliance in countries in Eastern Europe»

«Ukraine was not a member of Nato, so it is highly unlikely that anyone is going to send troops into Ukraine to challenge Russia»

«In proposals announced on Friday, Russia set out a series of radical demands – including requiring countries that joined Nato after the fall of the Soviet Union not to deploy troops or weapons in areas where they could be seen as a threat to Russia»

«Heavy bombers and warships would not be allowed in areas outside their national airspace or waters from which they could launch an attack»

«→→ That would mean Nato not playing any role at all in any of the three Baltic republics or Poland, as well as having to abandon any plans for Ukraine and Georgia to eventually join the Western alliance ←←»

* * * * * * *

I paesi della Nato, specie poi quelli della Europa dell’Est, stanno ospitando un sempre maggior numero di armi letali subito a ridosso del confine con la Russia.

Hanno anche spinto con forza l’ingresso della Ukraina nella Nato.

Queste però sono azioni che colpiscono interessi vitali russi, e che sarebbero valido motivo di guerra atomica.

Tuttavia, dopo aver lusingato e spinto l’Ukraina, Regno Unito ed Unione Europa annunciano che, nel caso, non la difenderebbero da una invasione armata russa.

Gran bei consiglieri fraudolenti!

* * * * * * *


UK troops will not be deployed to Ukraine to defend against Russia

Britain and its allies are “highly unlikely” to send troops to defend Ukraine if Russia invades the country, the UK’s defence secretary has said.

“We shouldn’t kid people we would,” Ben Wallace told the Spectator magazine. “The Ukrainians are aware of that.”

Russia has moved thousands of troops near Ukraine’s eastern borders, leading Western powers to urge President Vladimir Putin to de-escalate tensions.

Moscow has denied plans to attack and has asked for urgent talks with the US.

On Friday, Russia demanded strict limits on the activities of the US-led Nato military alliance in countries in Eastern Europe.

The alliance was originally set up to defend Europe against possible threats from the former Soviet Union.

In an interview with the Spectator, Mr Wallace said Ukraine was “not a member of Nato, so it is highly unlikely that anyone is going to send troops into Ukraine to challenge Russia”.

“That is why we are doing the best diplomatically to say to Putin don’t do this,” he said, adding that “severe economic sanctions” were the most likely form of deterrent.

Mr Wallace has previously said that the UK stands “shoulder to shoulder with the people of Ukraine” and remains determined to support them.

Earlier this week, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned Mr Putin of “significant consequences” of any “destabilising action” in the region.

Ukraine shares borders with both the EU and Russia, but as a former Soviet republic it has deep social and cultural ties with Russia.

The Kremlin has accused Ukraine of provocation with its ambition to join Nato.

In proposals announced on Friday, Russia set out a series of radical demands – including requiring countries that joined Nato after the fall of the Soviet Union not to deploy troops or weapons in areas where they could be seen as a threat to Russia.

Heavy bombers and warships would not be allowed in areas outside their national airspace or waters from which they could launch an attack as part of the proposals.

That would mean Nato not playing any role at all in any of the three Baltic republics or Poland, as well as having to abandon any plans for Ukraine and Georgia to eventually join the Western alliance.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko said on Saturday that the proposals were an attempt to avoid a possible military conflict.

He said Moscow was ready to hold talks with the US in an effort “to turn a military or a military-technical scenario of confrontation into a political process which will really strengthen military security”, Russia’s Interfax news agency reported.

The US has said it is open to discussions, but that it would be putting its own concerns on the table too.

White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki also said on Friday that there would be “no talks on European security without our European allies and partners”.

Russia has long resisted Ukraine’s move towards European institutions.

It invaded Georgia during a brief war in 2008 and seized Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, before backing separatists in eastern Ukraine.

Conflict in the east began in April 2014 and has claimed more than 14,000 lives, with casualties still being reported.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime, Russia, Unione Europea

Germania. Scholz e Baerbock bloccano il Nord Stream 2. Non sarebbe ecologico.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-12-17.

Nord Stream 103

«German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said his government will “do everything” to ensure that natural gas continues to flow through Ukraine»

«prevent Russia from using its Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline»

«Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock went further, saying Nord Stream 2 doesn’t meet the requirements of German regulators»

«At this point, the pipeline can’t be certified because it doesn’t fulfill the requirements of European energy law

«Germany would use its leverage to ensure that Russia extends its transit contract with Ukraine»

«Morawiecki said the roll out of Nord Stream 2 could “tighten the noose” around Ukraine and repeated his call to stop the pipeline project»

«Scholz also said he prefers a “pragmatic” resolution to the escalating dispute between the European Commission and Warsaw over adhering to principles of the rule of law»

* * * * * * *

Germania. Cancellierato Scholz e programma della Coalizione. Prevede spese enormi.

Germania. 2021Q3, Iacp +6.0%, Autovetture Export -17.2%, Import -29.8%.

Germania. Ambizioni verdi, riduzione del debito, incertezze su chi pagherà.

Germania. Oct21. Import Prices +21.7% anno su anno. Natural Gas +193.9%. Germania kaputt.

Germania. Oct21. PPI, producer prices, +18.4% anno su anno. Germania Kaputt.

Blocco Europeo. Oct21. Immatricolazioni auto a picco. Default in vista – Acea.

Germania. Sept21. Produzione Industriale -9.5% su Feb2020. – Destatis.

Europa. Elettricità. In Germania ed in Italia le tasse pesano per il 49.9% e 40.7%, rispettivamente.

Germania. Sept21. Vendite al dettaglio -2.5% MoM, -0.9% anno su anno. Stagflazione.

Germania. Sept21. PPI, Producer prices Index, +14.2%. – Destatis.

* * * * * * *

Bene.

Così la Germania ha bloccato il Nord Stream 2.

Nutriamo tuttavia seri dubbi che la Germania, questa Germania, sia sufficientemente potente per poter imporre i propri voleri. È in piena stagflazione e sta perdendo pezzi in continuazione.

Tra pochi giorni entreremo nell’inverno. L’eolico ed il fotovoltaico ben poco funzionano con il gelo. Senza natural gas sarebbe buio, gelo e fame.

Poi, non sappiamo come reagirà Mr Putin, ma sembrerebbe essere un tipo ben poco malleabile.

* * * * * * *


Scholz Vows to Defend Ukraine Gas Exports Against Nord Stream 2

(Bloomberg) — German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said his government will “do everything” to ensure that natural gas continues to flow through Ukraine and prevent Russia from using its Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to cripple the former Soviet republic’s economy.

During a three-hour trip to Poland on Sunday, Germany’s new leader didn’t directly address what, if any, action his government would take against the pipeline as Russia masses troops on Ukraine’s border. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock went further, saying Nord Stream 2 doesn’t meet the requirements of German regulators, who suspended the pipeline’s certification last month because the Gazprom PJSC-owned operator hadn’t properly set up a German unit.

“At this point, the pipeline can’t be certified because it doesn’t fulfill the requirements of European energy law — and security issues are still on the table,” Baerbock, whose Green party is a junior partner in the government, told broadcaster ZDF.

In Warsaw, Scholz reinforced a pledge by his predecessor, Angela Merkel, that Germany would use its leverage to ensure that Russia extends its transit contract with Ukraine and help overhaul the east European country’s energy infrastructure.

“We feel responsible that the gas transit business is also a successful business,” Scholz said in Warsaw after a meeting with Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.

Morawiecki said the roll out of Nord Stream 2 could “tighten the noose” around Ukraine and repeated his call to stop the pipeline project. Scholz made his second trip to the Polish capital after being sworn in to succeed Merkel on Wednesday.

Scholz also said he prefers a “pragmatic” resolution to the escalating dispute between the European Commission and Warsaw over adhering to principles of the rule of law. The EU has been locked in dispute with the Polish government over its revamp of the judicial system.

Pubblicato in: Putin, Russia

Putin. Una scacchiera strategica per destabilizzare l’occidente.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-11-26.

Putin Vladimir 012

“President Putin has come to the conclusion that normal diplomatic channels, means, forms and methods are not working,”

«you only understand the language of force»

* * * * * * *


«In the stretch of Europe from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, where Moscow and the West have competed for influence for decades, the threat of a new military conflict is growing»

«An ominous buildup of Russian troops near Ukraine. A migration crisis in Belarus that Western leaders call a “hybrid war” by a Kremlin client state. Escalating fears over natural gas that have Europe dreading a cold winter»

«President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has, increasingly, put his cards on the table: He is willing to take ever-greater risks to force the West to listen to Russian demands»

«Mr. Putin is playing a role in multiple destabilizing crises at once»

«In the stretch of Europe from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, where Moscow and the West have competed for influence for decades, the threat of a new military conflict is growing»

«He said that Western countries were finally recognizing that Russia was serious about defending its “red lines” that relate to the presence of NATO forces near its borders»

«Our recent warnings have indeed been heard and are having a certain effect»

«Tensions have been exacerbated by the migration crisis orchestrated on the European Union’s borders by Belarus, a close Russian ally, and by an energy crunch that Russia, which supplies much of Western Europe’s natural gas, has used to try to pressure the bloc to approve a new pipeline that would increase the Kremlin’s leverage in the region»

«Belarusian security officers carrying Kalashnikov rifles kept guard around a huge warehouse housing around 2,000 migrants»

«In Moscow, Mr. Putin appears to feel increasingly confident»

«He maintains an approval rating above 60 percent in independent polls»

«Mr. Putin also commands a military developing ever-more-modern weaponry, such as sophisticated hypersonic missiles and nuclear-capable torpedoes»

«But it is Ukraine that is primarily responsible for Russia’s current “red lines.”»

«Kremlin increasingly views Ukraine as a Western aircraft carrier parked at Russia’s southwestern border»

«In the Russian president’s evolving view of the West, he went on, you only understand the language of force»

«I welcome signs of readiness on the other side not just to produce and promote its own points and views…. but also to listen to what we are telling them»

«What does Mr. Putin want? …. To restore the Soviet Union»

«President Putin has come to the conclusion that normal diplomatic channels, means, forms and methods are not working»

* * * * * * *

Mr Putin è davvero molto abile a saper giocare in modo coordinato su molti differenti scacchieri, così da destabilizzare l’occidente liberal.

Purtroppo la sua controparte attuale è Joe Biden, persona del tutto inaffidabile.

Capito questo semplice concetto, risulterebbe essere facile comprenderne ciò che ne deriva.

«you only understand the language of force»

* * * * * * *


On Putin’s Strategic Chessboard, a Series of Destabilizing Moves.

In the stretch of Europe from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, where Moscow and the West have competed for influence for decades, the threat of a new military conflict is growing.

* * *

Vilnius, Lithuania — An ominous buildup of Russian troops near Ukraine. A migration crisis in Belarus that Western leaders call a “hybrid war” by a Kremlin client state. Escalating fears over natural gas that have Europe dreading a cold winter.

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has, increasingly, put his cards on the table: He is willing to take ever-greater risks to force the West to listen to Russian demands. And America and its allies are sensing an unusually volatile moment, one in which Mr. Putin is playing a role in multiple destabilizing crises at once.

In the stretch of Europe from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, where Moscow and the West have competed for influence for decades, the threat of a new military conflict is growing.

This month, Russian long-range nuclear bombers flew repeated patrols near the European Union’s border with Poland, and an unexplained and stealthy military buildup in southwestern Russia has American and European intelligence officials warning that the Kremlin could be laying the groundwork for a new invasion of Ukraine.

During a speech Thursday to Russian diplomats, Mr. Putin signaled more openly than before that he was using his military to coerce the West to respect Russia’s interests in the region. He said that Western countries were finally recognizing that Russia was serious about defending its “red lines” that relate to the presence of NATO forces near its borders.

“Our recent warnings have indeed been heard and are having a certain effect: tensions have risen there, after all,” Mr. Putin said. “It is important for them to remain in this state for as long as possible, so that it does not occur to them to stage some kind of conflict on our western frontiers that we do not need.”

Tensions have been exacerbated by the migration crisis orchestrated on the European Union’s borders by Belarus, a close Russian ally, and by an energy crunch that Russia, which supplies much of Western Europe’s natural gas, has used to try to pressure the bloc to approve a new pipeline that would increase the Kremlin’s leverage in the region.

“It’s a regional security situation which is very worrying at the moment,” said Asta Skaisgiryte, the foreign policy adviser to the president of Lithuania, an E.U. and NATO member that has faced a wave of migration from neighboring Belarus in recent months.

In Belarus on Friday, tensions that earlier this week triggered violent clashes at the main border crossing into Poland continued to ease. Belarusian security officers carrying Kalashnikov rifles kept guard around a huge warehouse housing around 2,000 migrants.

Many of the migrants voiced alarm and frustration that, instead of advancing into Poland, they had now moved backward, suggesting that President Aleksandr G. Lukashenko of Belarus could have trouble keeping anger from boiling over if migrants lose all hope of reaching Europe.

In Moscow, Mr. Putin appears to feel increasingly confident. He repelled this year’s challenge to his rule from the imprisoned opposition leader Aleksei A. Navalny, while other opposition figures continue to be arrested or forced into exile. He maintains an approval rating above 60 percent in independent polls, despite Russia suffering one of the worst Covid-19 death tolls in the world. His United Russia party claimed a sizable victory in September’s parliamentary elections, prompting few protests despite evidence of fraud.

Mr. Putin also commands a military developing ever-more-modern weaponry, such as sophisticated hypersonic missiles and nuclear-capable torpedoes. And Russia is building a tighter partnership with China, underscored on Friday when the two countries conducted a joint strategic bomber patrol over the Pacific.

At the same time, Russian analysts say, the Kremlin is growing increasingly concerned about the possibility that the West will further expand its military footprint in post-Soviet Eastern Europe. Lithuania and the other two Baltic states that were once part of the Soviet Union, Latvia and Estonia, are already NATO members hosting Western troops. In Belarus, Russia’s closest ally, the West has given full-throated support to the exiled opposition to Mr. Lukashenko.

But it is Ukraine that is primarily responsible for Russia’s current “red lines.” The Kremlin said in September that the “broadening of NATO infrastructure on Ukrainian territory” — where the West already provides training and weaponry to Ukrainian forces — would cross one of those lines. And in recent weeks, military activity by the United States and its allies in the Black Sea region near Ukraine, where President Volodymyr Zelensky has struck an increasingly anti-Russian tone, has infuriated Russian officials.

Dmitri Trenin, the head of the Carnegie Moscow Center think tank, said that to Russia, the current moment could well seem like a role reversal of the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, when President John F. Kennedy was prepared to risk nuclear war to prevent the Soviet Union from basing missiles off the Florida coast. Scholars at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington wrote this month that the “Kremlin increasingly views Ukraine as a Western aircraft carrier” parked at Russia’s southwestern border.

“He believes that it’s time to shift gears in our foreign policy,” Mr. Trenin said of Mr. Putin’s new approach. In the Russian president’s evolving view of the West, he went on, “you only understand the language of force.”

Amid the tensions, Russia is pursuing talks with Washington on a range of issues as a prelude to a second summit meeting between Mr. Putin and President Biden — a sign that the Kremlin hopes to extract assurances that its influence in Eastern Europe will be respected. On Thursday, without offering further details, Mr. Putin said Russia would push for “serious long-term guarantees that ensure Russia’s security” in the region.

Mr. Biden has said he is seeking a “stable and predictable” relationship with Russia, while pledging to continue to push back against Russian actions that go against democratic values or American interests. In an interview with The New York Times last week, a Russian deputy foreign minister, Sergey A. Ryabkov, welcomed Mr. Biden’s engagement, while making it clear that Russia would expect concessions.

To Russia, Mr. Ryabkov said, stability and predictability meant “less American meddling in our domestic affairs, with less attempts by the U.S. to limit our completely legal and legitimate interaction with our friends, allies and partners all over the globe.”

Russia has hosted a series of American officials for talks in Moscow in recent months, including William Burns, the head of the C.I.A., and, this week, the American envoy for Afghan policy, Thomas West. On Wednesday, Jake Sullivan, Mr. Biden’s national security adviser, spoke by phone with Nikolai Patrushev, the secretary of Mr. Putin’s Security Council; Mr. Patrushev’s office said the call concerned “upcoming contacts” between the presidents and “improving the atmosphere of Russian-American relations.”

“I welcome signs of readiness on the other side not just to produce and promote its own points and views,” Mr. Ryabkov, the deputy foreign minister, said, “but also to listen to what we are telling them.”

Before he sat down with Mr. Putin in Geneva in June, Mr. Biden met with leaders of the Baltic countries to assure them that the United States would continue to honor its defense commitments under the NATO alliance. The administration, people familiar with its thinking said, believes more direct talks — including possibly a conversation between Mr. Biden and Mr. Putin — will be necessary to further understand Moscow’s intentions, rather than simply relying on old-school Kremlinology.

But Ms. Skaisgiryte, the Lithuanian foreign-policy official, said the United States needed to be careful in engaging with Russia even as Mr. Putin claims, as he did on Thursday, that Russia is a “peace-loving” state.

“We have to not be naïve,” Ms. Skaisgiryte said. “We have to be very vigilant about what he does on the ground, and not to put ourselves into the trap of Putin’s rhetoric.”

What does Mr. Putin want? Ms. Skaisgiryte’s answer is simple: “To restore the Soviet Union.”

Mr. Trenin, the Carnegie analyst, said Mr. Putin had little interest in full-fledged invasions and occupations of other countries, given that the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s helped precipitate the collapse of the Soviet Union. But he said securing an international commitment to Ukraine as a neutral state, with its more pro-Russian east being given some autonomy, was a critical priority for the Kremlin.

“President Putin has come to the conclusion that normal diplomatic channels, means, forms and methods are not working,” Mr. Trenin said. “The situation is, potentially, a rather bad one.”

Pubblicato in: Armamenti, Cina, Russia, Stati Uniti

Superpotenze militari. Gli equilibri sono rotti. Una guerra è opzione appetibile.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2011-11-22.

Fallimento__1011

La storia e la Realpolitik insegnano che gli equilibri delle forze militari siano una garanzia per il mantenimento della pace. Sotto questa condizione diventano possibili ed auspicabili trattati che prendano realisticamente atto della situazione, e che tutti i contraenti abbiano interesse a mantenere.

Ma le situazioni di equilibrio non sono eterne.

Per quanto riguarda quello tra le superpotenze atomiche, negli ultimi tempi si è dovuto prendere atto della crescente forza e presenza cinese, che fino a poco tempo fa aveva raggiunto un ragionevole potere deterrente.

Ma la vera mutazione, la rottura, degli equilibri non prende luogo fino a tanto che varino solo i rapporti numerici, ossia quelli quantitativi.

→→ Gli equilibri cessano invece di sussistere quando una delle parti acquisti

una consistente supremazia tecnologica, che renda obsoleto l’armamento dell’avversario. ←←

* * *

Negli ultimi mesi sono accaduti due importanti fatti nuovi.

                         Cina e missili ipersonici suborbitali.

Cina. Testato un missile atomico ipersonico suborbitale. Usa colti di sorpresa.

Biden dice di essere ‘preoccupato’ dei missili ipersonici cinesi e russi. La prossima guerra.

Missili a 6 volte la velocità del suono, testati in Cina nuovi velivoli ipersonici

Armamenti Nucleari. È in atto una corsa al riarmo per la prossima guerra.

Cina. Gli Usa sono indifesi rispetto ai missili ipersonici suborbitali. – Generale Milley.

«→→ Existing defenses of the continental United States all point west and north over the Pacific, meaning they might fail in defeating an attack from the south ←←»»

«→→ current antimissile technology is designed to intercept intercontinental ballistic warheads on predictable, parabolic paths in outer space — not hypersonic weapons that can zig and zag through the atmosphere ←←»

«→→ We just don’t know how we can defend against that technology ←←»»

* * *

Come ammette il generale Milley, gli Stati Uniti sono indifesi rispetto i missili ipersonici suborbitali.

                         Russia. Missile ipersonico militare anti-satellite.

La Russia ha recentemente testato con successo un nuovo missile ipersonico in grado di distruggere un satellite in orbita. Lo raggiunge in meno di dieci minuti primo dal lancio.

Negli anni passati molte nazioni, l’India per esempio, avevano dimostrato di essere in grado di distruggere dei propri satelliti in orbita. Ma il salto tecnologico fatto dai russi consiste nel fatto che questo sia un missile militare, producibile su vasta scala, ed anche difficilmente tracciabile da parte degli attuali sistemi radar occidentali. Questa arma si presta quindi più che bene ad un primo attacco offensivo, di portata devastante.

Sono due le categorie di satelliti di interesse militare.

La prima categoria comprende i satelliti GPS, Global Positioning System, che consentono agi utenti di avere il punto esatto in cui si trovano. Attualmente vi sono in orbita 37 satelliti GPS. Distruggendo questa tipologia di satelliti verrebbero a mancare non solo le possibilità nautiche delle navi e degli aeroplani, ma anche i punti di riferimento dei missili di crociera e di altri armamenti che li utilizzano per tenere una rotta.

La seconda categoria comprende i satelliti di telecomunicazioni. Distrutti questi l’America resterebbe come un sordomuto. In particolare, la rete radar sarebbe impossibilitata di comunicare al centro di coordinamento, che non sarebbe quindi avvisato dell’arrivo di missili balistici. Ne deriverebbe un chaos inimmaginabile fino all’avvenuto schianto delle testate atomiche.

* * * * * * *

Al momento il blocco sino-russo ha acquisto questa consistente superiorità tecnologica, fatto questo che suggerirebbe di utilizzarla fino a tanto che essa regga. Sarebbe sciocco perdere una occasione più unica che rara.

Sarebbe ingenuo pensare gli americani non cerchino di prendere adeguate contromisure.

* * * * * * *


Russian anti-satellite missile test draws condemnation

«The US has condemned Russia for conducting a “dangerous and irresponsible” missile test that it says endangered the crew aboard the International Space Station (ISS).

The test blew up one of Russia’s own satellites, creating debris that forced the ISS crew to shelter in capsules.

The station currently has seven crew members on board – four Americans, a German and two Russians.

The space station orbits at an altitude of about 420km (260 miles).

“Earlier today, the Russian Federation recklessly conducted a destructive satellite test of a direct ascent anti-satellite missile against one of its own satellites,” US state department spokesman Ned Price said at a briefing.

“The test has so far generated over 1,500 pieces of trackable orbital debris and hundreds of thousands of pieces of smaller orbital debris that now threaten the interests of all nations.”»

* * *


Russian anti-satellite test adds to worsening problem of space debris.

Russia has carried out a missile test, destroying one of its own satellites. The action has caused international outrage because the debris could threaten the International Space Station (ISS) and satellites in low-Earth orbit.

Russia’s test of an anti-satellite (A-Sat) missile system is not the first of its kind.

Back in 2007, China tested its own missile system against one of its own weather satellites in orbit. The explosion created more than 3,000 pieces of debris the size of a golf ball or larger – and more than 100,000 much smaller pieces.

Of the orbiting fragments considered a threat to the ISS, about a third are from this Chinese test. And at the speeds these objects travel in orbit, even small pieces can threaten spacecraft with destruction.

The A-Sat tests fit into the wider issue of space debris, which is being made worse by our continued activities in space.

There is now a wild jungle of debris overhead – everything from old rocket stages that continue to loop around the Earth decades after they were launched, to the flecks of paint that have lifted off once shiny space vehicles and floated off into the distance.

It is the legacy of 64 years of space activity.

It’s estimated there is close to 10,000 tonnes of hardware in orbit – much of it still active and useful, but far too much of it defunct and aimless.

Almost 30,000 pieces of debris are being tracked on a daily basis. These are just the big, easy-to-see items, however.

Go below the scale of 1cm (0.39in), and objects move around more or less untracked. There may be 300 million of these.

All of this stuff is travelling at several kilometres per second – sufficient velocity for them to become damaging projectiles if any were to strike an operational space mission.

The threat was starkly demonstrated in 2009 when an active communications satellite operated by the US company Iridium and a defunct Soviet-era military communications satellite were obliterated when they collided in orbit.

Now consider the threat to a space vehicle with humans aboard.

On Monday, Russia carried out the A-Sat test from Plesetsk Cosmodrome, about 800km (500 miles) north of Moscow. The missile destroyed an old Soviet spy satellite, called Kosmos 1408, that was once part of Russia’s Tselina radio signal surveillance programme.

US state department spokesman Ned Price said the destruction of Kosmos 1408 had generated about 1,500 pieces of larger orbiting objects, for which tracking information is available to civilian sources. But it also created hundreds of thousands of smaller fragments.

Some of these tinier objects likely can be tracked, because the US military doesn’t want to give away information about the sensitivities of its hardware. But others are probably too small to detect from the ground.

The debris field from the A-Sat test is found at an altitude of between 440km and 520km above Earth, threatening the ISS, China’s Tiangong space station and other spacecraft.

When the ISS passed close to the debris cloud on Monday, crew members were told to shelter in the Soyuz and Crew Dragon spacecraft attached to the orbiting outpost. This is so that the crew could detach and come back to Earth if the space station was damaged by fragments of the satellite.

While vehicles such as the space shuttle were hit by smaller pieces of debris, it’s likely that a collision with any large objects at orbital speeds would be catastrophic to the ISS.

The action by Russia has been condemned by other countries, including the US and the UK.

The Russian military said it was carrying out planned activities to strengthen its defence capabilities, but denied the test was dangerous.

“The United States knows for certain that the resulting fragments, in terms of test time and orbital parameters, did not and will not pose a threat to orbital stations, spacecraft and space activities,” it said.

Many countries now have their own A-Sat systems; the US and Russia (and previously the USSR) have been developing weapons of this kind since the 1950s. In 1985, the US used a missile launched from an F-15 fighter jet to destroy the Solwind scientific satellite.

After the Chinese A-Sat incident in 2007, the US military again shot down one of its own satellites – at a lower altitude than the Chinese or Russian operations – using a ship-launched missile. The lower height above the Earth was intended to ensure that any debris would quickly burn up in the atmosphere rather than staying aloft to threaten space-based assets.

Then in 2019, India tested its own weapon, during an operation codenamed Mission Shakti. The missile struck a test satellite in a lower orbit than those targeted by Moscow or Beijing, generating more than 200 pieces of trackable debris.

Since modern militaries rely on satellites for intelligence gathering, navigation and communications, A-Sat systems could be used to undermine an adversary’s command and control system during conflict.

Environmental impact

Gravity ensures that everything that goes up will eventually come back down – but the bath is currently being filled faster than the plug hole and the overflow pipe can empty it.

Some material from the A-Sat tests will come down to Earth, out of harm’s way, but a significant proportion will head off to high altitudes where they will remain a hazard for years to come.

Humans and nature are also conspiring in unexpected ways to make the situation worse. The extra CO2 pumped into the atmosphere down the years has cooled some of its highest reaches – the thermosphere.

This – combined with low levels of solar activity – have shrunk the atmosphere, limiting the amount of drag on orbital objects that ordinarily helps to pull debris from the sky. In other words, the junk is also staying up longer.

Leaving aside the growth in debris from collisions for a moment, the number of satellites being sent into space is also increasing rapidly.

Go back to the 2000s, and the average for the number of satellites launched each year would be about 100. In this decade, the proliferation of small satellite technologies will likely see the annual average rise above 1,000.

Pubblicato in: Armamenti, Russia, Stati Uniti

Nato. Jens Stoltenberg lancia l’allarme sulle concentrazioni militari della Russia.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-11-19.

Ukraina 001

«The head of the NATO military alliance urged Russia to prevent any escalation in the wake of its build-up of forces near the border with Ukraine»

«What we see is a significant, large Russian military build-up, we see an unusual concentration of troops and we know Russia has been willing to use these types of military capabilities before to conduct aggressive actions against Ukraine»

«We call on Russia to be transparent on their military activities, to reduce tensions and to prevent any escalation»

«The build-up of tanks and troops near the border with Ukraine has western capitals worried that Russian President Vladimir Putin could be planning a repeat of the 2014 invasion»

«any further western steps to provide weapons or expand military facilities in Ukraine would cross Russia’s red line»

«The fact that we see this military build-up also reduces any warning time between a decision in Russia before they’re able to conduct a military aggressive action against Ukraine»

«What we see now is a deteriorating situation where Russia is demonstrating that it can quickly activate the already amassed troops and equipment and that every option including a military one is on the table»

* * * * * * *

La ambigua politica estera di Joe Biden e dei liberal europei ha rinfocolato un clima da guerra fredda.

Se la red line posta dai russi è esplicita e chiara, quella occidentale è sfumata ed ondivaga. In effetti, non sanno decidersi su quale posizione tenersi.

Ma la incertezza genera incomprensioni, e queste la possibilità di un conflitto armato, magari preterintenzionale.

Una cosa sembrerebbe essere certa.

I russi non permetteranno mai che la Nato militarizzi l’Ukraina.

* * * * * * *


NATO Chief Raises Alarm on Russia Military Build-Up Near Ukraine

(Bloomberg) — The head of the NATO military alliance urged Russia to prevent any escalation in the wake of its build-up of forces near the border with Ukraine.

“What we see is a significant, large Russian military build-up, we see an unusual concentration of troops and we know Russia has been willing to use these types of military capabilities before to conduct aggressive actions against Ukraine,” Jens Stoltenberg, secretary general of the 30-nation North Atlantic Treaty Organization, told reporters on Monday.

“We call on Russia to be transparent on their military activities, to reduce tensions and to prevent any escalation,” Stoltenberg said after talks with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in Brussels. “This is a clear message from all NATO allies.” 

The build-up of tanks and troops near the border with Ukraine has western capitals worried that Russian President Vladimir Putin could be planning a repeat of the 2014 invasion. In Moscow, senior officials and others close to the leadership say the Kremlin aims to make clear that any further western steps to provide weapons or expand military facilities in Ukraine would cross Russia’s red line. 

Stoltenberg declined to elaborate on the size or composition of the Russian deployment. “The fact that we see this military build-up also reduces any warning time between a decision in Russia before they’re able to conduct a military aggressive action against Ukraine,” Stoltenberg said.

“What we currently see along the border is not a purely military build-up because Russia has already brought a military armada to our borders in spring and has never really withdrawn since,” Kuleba said. “What we see now is a deteriorating situation where Russia is demonstrating that it can quickly activate the already amassed troops and equipment and that every option including a military one is on the table.”