Pubblicato in: Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Unione Europea

CommerzBank. Il 1° gennaio 2000 valeva 244.04. Oggi quota 7.95.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela

2018-11-21.

2018-11-21__CommerzBank

Ci si rende pienamente conto che le quotazioni di borsa non sono tutto.

Una capitalizzazione di 9.955 miliardi sembrerebbe essere davvero striminzita: il Credit Agricole capitalizza 30.726 miliardi, l’Usb 49.329 miliardi, la Morgan Stanley 74.138 miliardi.

Qui, nella nostra povera Italia, Intesa Sanpaolo capitalizza 33.635 miliardi ed Unicredit 23.89 miliardi.

A questo punto ci sarebbe ben poco da commentare. Non si vede l’ora che Frau Merkel ritorni a casa sua, a far la calza e pulire per terra.

Annunci
Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Senza categoria, Unione Europea

Deutsche Bank è coinvolta nello scandalo Danish Bank. 130 miliardi.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-11-21.

A statue is pictured next to the logo of Germany's Deutsche Bank in Frankfurt

Un giorno qualcuno dovrà ben accollarsi l’onere di spiegare ai tedeschi che si può anche vivere onestamente.

«Deutsche Bank, Germany’s top lender, handled about €130bn of the “suspicious” money in the Danske Bank affair – the biggest money-laundering scandal in EU history.»

*

«Deutsche Bank acted as correspondent bank for Danske Bank in Estonia. Our role was to process payments for Danske Bank. We terminated this relationship in 2015 after identifying suspicious activity by its clients»

*

«A “correspondent bank” acts as an intermediary for other banks in countries where they do little business.»

*

«In this case, that meant Deutsche Bank helped Danske Bank’s clients in Estonia to move money into the US financial system.»

*

«Those clients were intimates of Russian president Vladimir Putin, Russian intelligence services, Russian mobsters, and members of the Azerbaijani elite, according to findings in Denmark.»

*

«I would estimate that $150bn [€130bn] has flowed through this particular bank»

*

«The fresh revelations set the scene for Wilkinson’s second testimony, due in the European Parliament on Wednesday.»

* * * * * * *

Queste indagini dureranno a lungo.

Si è tutti curiosi di come la prenderà il nuovo Europarlamento. Per i lebbrosi sarà grasso che cola……


EU Observer. 2018-11-20. Deutsche Bank dragged into Danish bank scandal

Deutsche Bank, Germany’s top lender, handled about €130bn of the “suspicious” money in the Danske Bank affair – the biggest money-laundering scandal in EU history.

“Deutsche Bank acted as correspondent bank for Danske Bank in Estonia. Our role was to process payments for Danske Bank. We terminated this relationship in 2015 after identifying suspicious activity by its clients,” the German lender told press on Tuesday (20 November).

A “correspondent bank” acts as an intermediary for other banks in countries where they do little business.

In this case, that meant Deutsche Bank helped Danske Bank’s clients in Estonia to move money into the US financial system.

Those clients were intimates of Russian president Vladimir Putin, Russian intelligence services, Russian mobsters, and members of the Azerbaijani elite, according to findings in Denmark.

Hundreds of millions of the funds were also ‘blood money’ linked to the murder of Russian anti-corruption activist Sergei Magnitsky, Magnitsky’s former employer, Bill Browder, has said.

The Deutsche Bank revelation comes after a Danske Bank whistleblower, Howard Wilkinson, testified to Danish MPs on Monday.

“I would estimate that $150bn [€130bn] has flowed through this particular bank”, Wilkinson said.

He named the bank only as a “US subsidiary of a European bank” and a “major correspondence bank handing US dollar transactions” because a Danske Bank gag order forbade him from saying more.

He said two US banks were also involved, with the Reuters news agency, citing sources, saying that these were JP Morgan and Bank of America.

“Nobody really knows where this money went, all we know is that the last people who saw it were people from those three banks in the US. They were the last control, and when it went awry was the money in the global financial system,” Wilkinson said.

“There’s no chance in the world that any of the suspicious money … will ever be traced or that any of those criminals will ever lose a single cent of it,” he added, given that it has already taken years for the scandal to come out.

Showdown in parliament

The fresh revelations set the scene for Wilkinson’s second testimony, due in the European Parliament on Wednesday.

The acting CEO of Danske Bank, Jesper Nielsen, will also take part, with MEPs, such as Danish centre-left deputy Jeppe Kofod, set to urge him to tear up the non-disclosure agreement that his bank forced Wilkinson to sign under threats of financial penalties.

The German and US banks all terminated their business with Danske Bank between 2013 and 2015, but the dodgy funds had flowed through their accounts for more than five years before they washed their hands.

The news saw Deutsche Bank’s shares fall a further three percent on Tuesday amid concern that German and US regulators might impose fines.

Deutsche Bank already paid €550m in fines to British and US regulators in 2017 for having funnelling about €9bn of illicit Russian money.

The scandal, which was itself the biggest in EU history before the Danish affair, saw Bafin, the German regulator, install a “special representative” in Deutsche Bank to oversee anti-money laundering compliance in an unprecedented step.

The US Department of Justice is still investigating the €9bn case in a process that could see the German lender pay out further penalties.

The Danish affair has prompted the European Commission to table new anti-money laundering laws to help clean up the European banking system.

More to come?

But if Danske Bank lifts its gag order on Wilkinson it could lead to further revelations of how small EU countries with large offshore banking sectors act as a conduit for dirty money into the EU and US financial system.

Its Estonian branch aside, there was a “deafening silence” on what Danske Bank’s Lithuanian branch has been doing, Wilkinson said on Monday.

Cyprus, Malta, and Latvia are also weak links in the EU’s anti-money laundering chain, Panicos Demetriades, Cyprus’ former central bank chief, previously told EUobserver.

The “political pressure” on bank supervisors in these countries was “so great that it’s very hard for them to do the right thing,” he said.

Banks in Cyprus handled €3.4 trillion of cross-border transactions including by non-resident or offshore clients between 2008 and 2015, according to European Central Bank (ECB) data obtained by the Bloomberg news agency in October.

Latvian banks handled €2.8 trillion and Estonian ones €900bn, the ECB said, indicating that the Dankse Bank and Deutsche Bank scandals could be just the tip of the iceberg.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Ideologia liberal, Unione Europea

Europarlamento boccia il budget di Juncker, Macron e Merkel.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-11-21.

EP-051364A_Tajani_Brexit
Opening the debate on BREXIT

I gerarchi dell’Unione Europea sono nei triboli, ma suscitano più ilarità che compassione. A leggere i discorsi che fanno sembrerebbero essere avulsi dal tempo e dallo spazio: confabulano.

Cerchiamo di ragionare.

Da oltre due anni tranne un caso i liberal socialisti hanno inanellato sconfitta su sconfitta, debacle su debacle. Il risultato è che al momento la composizione del Consiglio Europeo, ossia il consesso dei capi di stato e di governo della Unione, ha una composizione politica quasi opposta a quello dell’attuale Europarlamento, che fu eletto cinque anni or sono.

Ma i regolamenti dell’Unione Europea prevedono che le decisioni del Consiglio siano ratificate dal parlamento, e viceversa. Questa regola non dava fastidio alcuno quando i liberal socialisti erano ubiquitari al potere, ma adesso è un serio ostacolo al funzionamento.

Buon senso suggerirebbe che in simili situazioni si cerchi di mutuare, di trovare un accordo, ma questi liberal socialisti sono tetragoni nel voler imporre il proprio pensiero e la propria prassi, anche quando siano chiaramente in minoranza. Nel midollo sono rivoluzionari, ossia gente in minoranza che vuole prendersi il potere con la forza bruta.

A questo punto lo scontro diventa obbligatorio.

Se è vero che Mr Macron e Frau Merkel avevano raggiunto un accordo tra di loro sul budget dell’Eurozona, sarebbe altrettanto vero ricordare come Mr Macron sia oramai debolissimo in Francia e Frau Merkel prossima alla rottamazione in Germania. I tempi in cui l’Asse franco germanico decideva per tutta l’Unione Europea sono passati.

«The negotiations between the Council of the EU – representing national governments – and the European Parliament for the 2019 budget ended Monday without agreement»

*

«They failed to reach a compromise by the legal deadline»

*

«The European Commission will now have to present a new draft budget»

* * * * * * *

Tanto, il tempo passa implacabile.

Il sette dicembre si terrà il congresso della cdu ed a maggio si terranno le elezioni europee.

L’epoca dei liberal socialisti si sta avviando al suo declino.


EU Observer. 2018-11-20. EU budget talks for 2019 collapse

The negotiations between the Council of the EU – representing national governments – and the European Parliament for the 2019 budget ended Monday without agreement. They failed to reach a compromise by the legal deadline. The European Commission will now have to present a new draft budget. MEP Daniele Viotti called it “just a technical pause”. Council negotiator Hartwig Loger said he was “confident” of a deal before year’s end.


EU Observer. 2018-11-19. Germany and France agree eurozone budget framework

German finance minister Olaf Scholz and his French counterpart Bruno Le Maire have agreed a joint plan for a eurozone-only budget to be presented in Monday’s Eurogroup meeting in Brussels, with view to adoption at the 14 December euro summit, German media reported. Eurozone finance ministers, rather than the European Commission, would be in charge of designing investment programmes to be paid via new taxes.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Devoluzione socialismo

Cina. La scrittrice Liu condannata a dieci anni di carcere.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-11-21.

2018-11-20__Cina__Liu__001

Come tutte le nazioni civili, la Cina considera l’omosessualità come un reato.

Similmente, l’apologia della omosessualità e della relative perversioni collegate è oggetto da codice penale.

Non a caso la legge sul matrimonio della Repubblica popolare cinese, adottata in occasione della terza sessione del V Congresso Nazionale del Popolo il 10 settembre del 1980, definisce il matrimonio come unione tra un uomo e una donna.

Se non stupisce quindi che un tribunale abbia comminato deici anni di carcere all’autrice di un libro inneggiante l’omosessualità, si resta sconcertati che Mrs Liu abbia volutamente e scientemente commettere tale reato, quasi che abbia voluto sfidare lo stato cinese.

*

«Gongzhan, the book that Tianyi wrote and put out for sale, contains explicit homoerotic content, which lead to her arrest and sentencing»

*

«A woman in East China’s Anhui Province was given a 10-year sentence for writing and distributing homoerotic books»

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«The woman, surnamed Liu, commonly writing under the pen name Tianyi, came to the notice of police after one of her books, Gongzhan, went viral in 2017»

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«According to Wuhu police, the book describes obscene sexual behavior between males, and the content, which is full of perverted sexual acts like violation and abuse, was sold online»

*

«gaining illegal profits of 150,000 yuan ($21,624) as of the arrest»

* * * * * * *

«If judges think content related to homosexuality and indecency has a baneful impact on the society, they might choose a heavy sentence within the legal range»

*

Data la platealità e la reiterazione del reato, cui si assomma anche quello di evasione fiscale, nel complesso una sentenza mite.

L’Occidente non domina più il mondo: anzi, inizia ad esserne dominato. Sarebbe opportuno rendersi conto della nuova realtà.

Presto, cose ora in Occidente proibite saranno invece auspicate, e cosa ora auspicate saranno proibite.


Global Times. 2018-11-19. Writer faces 10 years in prison for selling homoerotic books

Gongzhan, the book that Tianyi wrote and put out for sale, contains explicit homoerotic content, which lead to her arrest and sentencing.

*

A woman in East China’s Anhui Province was given a 10-year sentence for writing and distributing homoerotic books, sparking discussion on Chinese cyberspace over whether the punishment is excessive.

The woman, surnamed Liu, commonly writing under the pen name Tianyi, came to the notice of police after one of her books, Gongzhan, went viral in 2017.

According to Wuhu police, the book describes obscene sexual behavior between males, and the content, which is full of perverted sexual acts like violation and abuse, was sold online several thousand times over a period of a few months.

The report said that, apart from Gongzhan, Tianyi has distributed over 7,000 pornographic books, most of which were related to homosexuality, gaining illegal profits of 150,000 yuan ($21,624) as of the arrest.

Liu was sentenced to 10 years in prison by a Wuhu court on October 31.

However, many netizens, including Li Yinhe, a renowned Chinese sexologist and sociologist, questioned whether the sentence was excessive. “The author deserves sympathy. She did violate criminal law, but even a one-year sentence is too much, not to mention 10 years,” Li commented on Sina Weibo on Saturday.

A Weibo user posted her personal experience to question the sentence, saying that she was sexually assaulted and injured on the streets of Beijing in May 2018, but the perpetrator was sentenced to only 8 months in prison.

An employee surnamed Xu from the court told The Beijing News on Saturday that the sentence was in accordance with the 1998 judicial interpretation.

Deng Xueping, a lawyer based in Shanghai, told the newspaper that this judgement “was determined by a standard from 20 years ago,” and, “our judicial explanation should advance with time.” 

“If judges think content related to homosexuality and indecency has a baneful impact on the society, they might choose a heavy sentence within the legal range,” Lü Xiaoquan, a Beijing-based lawyer, told the Global Times on Sunday, noting that social influence is also under consideration of the court.

Liu has filed an appeal to the Intermediate People’s Court of Wuhu after the first judgment, said The Beijing News.


Bbc. 2018-11-19. Chinese erotic novelist jailed for 10 years for gay sex scenes

A Chinese writer has been given a 10 year sentence for writing and selling a novel which featured gay sex scenes.

The writer, identified as Liu, was jailed by a court in Anhui province last month for producing and selling “obscene material”.

Her novel, titled “Occupation”, featured “male homosexual behaviour… including perverted sexual acts like violation and abuse.”

But her lengthy jail term has sparked protest across Chinese social media.

According to the Beijing News, Liu – better known by her online alias Tian Yi – has now filed an appeal to the court.

Pornography is illegal in China.

‘Too much’

On 31 October, Liu was sentenced to jail by the People’s Court of Wuhu for making and selling “obscene material” for profit, according to local news site Wuhu news.

However, details of the hearing only emerged on Chinese media outlets this week.

Police officials were first alerted to her novel after it started to gain popularity online.

Liu is said to have sold over 7,000 copies of Occupation and other erotic novels and made 150,000 yuan ($21,604, £16,782) in profit, reported state news outlet the Global Times.

But many social media users argued that the sentence she received was excessive.

“10 years for a novel? That’s too much,” said one social media user on Weibo.

Another referenced an incident in 2013, where a former official was sentenced to eight years in prison for raping a four year old girl.

“Those found guilty of rape get less than 10 years in jail. This writer gets 10 years,” another Weibo user added.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Cina, Giappone e Germania. Tre destini simili. – Bloomberg.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-11-21.

caravaggio-il-baro_jpg

Il titolo di Bloomberg è un sommario:

Japan, German Contractions Open Cracks in Global Economy

Le battute di arresto della terza e quarta economia mondiale non possono non avere ripercussioni sui mercati internazionali, sulla economia mondiale. L’articolista suggerisce che siano battute di arresto momentanee, che presto questi due sistemi economici dovrebbero potersi riprendere, anche se prospetta crescite minimali, nell’ordine dell’uno e due per cento: ma questo sembrerebbe essere più un buon auspicio piuttosto che una prvisione ben fondata.

«But the data from the third- and fourth-largest economies are a setback when the outlook for global growth is already fraying amid jittery financial markets and mounting trade wars.»

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«China provided some sense of stability as infrastructure investment and industrial production picked up, while weak retail sales underscored the slowdown underway in the No. 2 economy»

*

Dare la colpa di tutto ciò che sta accadendo alle politiche commerciali di Mr Trump sembrerebbe essere la ricerca del capro espiatorio. I motivi sono purtroppo ben più profondamente radicati.

«Markets are starting to fret with stocks and oil prices both sliding sharply. The MSCI index of global stocks dropped more than 7 percent in October, its worst month since 2012.»

*

«Industrial production rose in China more than expected in October and there was also a stronger reading from fixed-asset investments, signaling that government stimulus aimed at spurring infrastructure investment is finally passing through»

*

«Oil is witnessing a record losing streak and OPEC warns demand for crude is falling faster than expected.»

*

«Contractions in two major economies are likely to make investors and companies more cautious about the outlook for the global economy»

* * * * * * * *

«demand for crude is falling»

Questo sembrerebbe essere il cuore del problema.

Il calare della domanda petrolifera non è una causa, bensì un effetto: le economie stanno richiedendo meno energetici, a causa del fatto che sono in contrazione.

Se è vero che la Cina non presenta segni tangibili di contrazione economica, sarebbe altrettanto vero il ricordarsi come essa sia qualcosa di più di un continente, con ampie porzioni totalmente evolute economicamente, ma anche con vaste sacche ancora da far emergere. In altri termini, è ancora un mercato che può evolversi in maniera autonoma, seza condizionare né essere condizionato in modo vistoso da quanto succeda all’estero.

*

Il problema tedesco, come quello più in generale dell’Occidente, è politico, e questo condiziona di converso quello economico.

L’Occidente sta attraversando un periodo di transizione, ove il vecchio stenta a morire ed il nuovo stenta ad imporsi.

Di certo un fatto: lo stile di vita pregresso non è più a lungo sostenibile.

Emergono con sempre maggiore chiarezza esigenze divergenti, contrastanti: da una parte la esigenza oggettiva di dover abbassare l’imposizione fiscale alle imprese ed ai cittadini, pena la esclusione dai mercati, dall’altra la lotta contro la miseria e la povertà dilagante.

Ma ridurre le tasse significa ridurre le disponibilità statali, e disponibilità statali ridotte significano riduzione del welfare.

Si prospettano tempi nei quali sarà impossibile fare ancora ciò che si vuole: si farà, che vada bene, solo quello che si potrà. E sarà ben poco.


Bloomberg. 2018-11-14. Japan, German Contractions Open Cracks in Global Economy

– Both countries hit by temporary factors, set to bounce back

– But trade tensions remain a big risk for the outlook into 2019

*

The world economy took a body blow in the third quarter with Japan and Germany both contracting, although both are set to rebound.

One-off factors were largely to blame — weather in Japan and cars in Germany. But the data from the third- and fourth-largest economies are a setback when the outlook for global growth is already fraying amid jittery financial markets and mounting trade wars.

China provided some sense of stability as infrastructure investment and industrial production picked up, while weak retail sales underscored the slowdown underway in the No. 2 economy.

Markets are starting to fret with stocks and oil prices both sliding sharply. The MSCI index of global stocks dropped more than 7 percent in October, its worst month since 2012. Oil is witnessing a record losing streak and OPEC warns demand for crude is falling faster than expected.

“The timing is bad,” said Junko Nishioka, chief Japan economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. and a former Bank of Japan official. “Contractions in two major economies are likely to make investors and companies more cautious about the outlook for the global economy.”

Both the Japanese and German economies are forecast to rebound this quarter after shrinking an annualized 1.2 percent and 0.2 percent on a quarterly basis respectively.

But there’s no ignoring that underlying momentum in the export-heavy nations is being undermined by the U.S.’s antagonistic tone on trade.

Reports that President Donald Trump will hold off for now on imposing levies on imported Japanese cars and auto parts keeps one of the biggest threats to Japan’s economy at bay for the time being. Germany is benefiting from a truce between the EU and the U.S., though European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker signaled this week that this might only last until year-end.

cted bounce in Germany.

As for China, its authorities say they’ll act to arrest any damage to the economy, with the People’s Bank of China saying last week it will “preemptively adjust and fine-tune policies according to the changing conditions.”

Industrial production rose in China more than expected in October and there was also a stronger reading from fixed-asset investments, signaling that government stimulus aimed at spurring infrastructure investment is finally passing through.

Germany is also expecting improvement after a soft patch, though not enough for Commerzbank economist Joerg Kraemer to maintain his 2018 outlook. He cut his forecast for growth to 1.5 percent from 1.8 percent.

“We do not expect the Chinese economy to collapse,” he said. “For this reason, the leading indicators in Germany should stabilize soon. The upswing is slowing down, but will continue in the coming year.”

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo

UN. Licenziato l’ecologista capo. Spendeva come un satrapo.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-11-20.

2018-11-20__Ecologista__001

Mai a memoria di uomo si riscontrò un ambientalista povero.

Tutti ricchi, straricchi, con grandi stipendi rigorosamente di denari pubblici.

Mr Erik Solheim, UN environment chief, amava trattarsi bene.

«A recent draft internal audit, obtained by Britain’s Guardian newspaper and seen by the BBC, said he had incurred costs of $488,518 (£382,111) while travelling for 529 out of 668 days»

*

«There was “no oversight or accountability” to monitor this travel»

*

«The report was particularly critical of the travel undertaken under Mr Solheim, UN Environment executive director since 2016. A total about $58m was spent in the two years since then»

*

$58m sono una gran bella cifra.

E la abbiamo pagata anche noi italiani con i nostri contributi alle Nazioni Unite.


Bbc. 2018-11-20. UN environment chief Erik Solheim quits amid expenses row

UN environment chief Erik Solheim has resigned amid a row over his travel expenses.

A recent draft internal audit, obtained by Britain’s Guardian newspaper and seen by the BBC, said he had incurred costs of $488,518 (£382,111) while travelling for 529 out of 668 days.

It said this harmed the reputation of UN Environment – a body that highlights green issues and sustainability.

There was “no oversight or accountability” to monitor this travel.

Mr Solheim, a Norwegian former environment minister, says he has paid back the money where “instances of oversight” occurred.

On Tuesday, Mr Solheim himself confirmed his resignation, Norway’s NRK broadcaster reported.

A formal UN announcement is expected shortly.

What did the audit say?

The amount spent on travel by UN Environment, a Kenya-based agency, doubled between 2014 and 2017.

The report was particularly critical of the travel undertaken under Mr Solheim, UN Environment executive director since 2016. A total about $58m was spent in the two years since then.

While all UN staff are expected to complete “mission reports” within two weeks of travel, the audit found that these were often missing.

When they requested reports for 596 trips undertaken by 32 managers and staff, 210 mission reports were not provided, while around 200 others were only completed after the request was made.

The audio was carried out by the UN’s Office of Internal Oversight Services (OIOS).

It says Mr Solheim’s leave and travel were approved by a member of his office who reported directly to him – in contravention of UN rules.

On one occasion, it says, “he made an eight-hour trip from Washington DC for a weekend in Paris, before taking another flight to New York city.”

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Germania. Merkel. ‘Please quit’. – Bloomberg.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-11-20.

G7 Leaders Summit in Canada

Gran brutto segno le illusioni, ma molto peggio le allucinazioni!


I tedeschi hanno oggettive difficoltà a vedere e comprendere la realtà che li circonda. Un caso da manuale è Stalingrado.

Il clima che si respira in Germania è davvero semplice:

«Please, quit».

Ma Frau Merkel proprio non ne vuole sapere, e questo potrebbe anche essere il meno: persiste imperterrita a cercare di patrocinare la propria linea politica, ossia quella che ha portato la Grosse Koalition alla disfatta. Se non si presenta a dicembre al Congresso del partito per la elezione del Presidente, d’altro canto non intende dimettersi dal cancellierato, che intende portare a termine.

Questo determinerebbe una frattura dicotomica tra la direzione del partito e la cancelleria: situazione alla lunga insostenibile.

«German Chancellor Angela Merkel called for tolerance in a city that’s been a flashpoint of anti-immigrant unrest, laying down a political marker that may lead to conflict during the final phase of her chancellorship»

*

«As far-right protesters organized a “Merkel Must Go” march, the chancellor faced hostile questions on a visit to the eastern city of Chemnitz. Meanwhile, her Christian Democrats are debating a shift away from her legacy to win back voters from the nationalist Alternative for Germany»

*

«Such a move would make life more difficult for Merkel, who will quit as party leader in December but intends to serve out her fourth term, which ends in 2021»

* * * * * * *

Cerchiamo di riassumere.

– Il congresso della Cdu da tenersi ai primi di dicembre non dovrà solo eleggere un nuovo presidente che sostituisca Frau Merkel: sarà chiamato a stabilire nuove linee politiche volte se non altro a frenare la continua emorragia di voti.

– Operazione questa complessa, se non altro per la concomitante presenza di un Governo di Grosse Koalition: la Cdu troverebbe grandi difficoltà a cambiare le carte in tavola con l’alleata spd.

– Sarà ben difficile che Frau Merkel possa mantenere il cancellierato per mettere in atto linee politiche che sarebbero contrastanti con le sue proprie.

* * *

Vi è poi un grandioso problema del quale nessuno si azzarda a parlare, anche l’articolo portato in calce.

– La Germania è politicamente e socialmente, ma anche economicamente, divisa in due: l’est e l’ovest.

– Se nella Germania dell’est i voti che hanno abbandonato Cdu ed spd sono confluiti su AfD, nella Germania dell’ovest si sono invece riversati sui Grüne.

– Se è vero che AfD non riesce a fondare all’ovest, sarebbe altrettanto vero constatare come i Grüne non riescano a sfondare ad est.

– Questa situazione porta inevitabilmente ad una parcellazione politica alla quale i tedeschi non sono avvezzi. Non solo, le forze in campo hanno direttrici altamente divergenti, quindi incompatibili.

* * *

In questa situazione chaotica si innesta infine una altro problema, artificioso, ma mal percepito dai tedeschi.

Agli inizi della devoluzione del Sistema Merkel, la tesa situazione socio – economica ha determinato l’ascesa di AfD. I liberal socialisti hanno recepito questa realtà in modo pessimo: invece che analizzarne le cause hanno valutato solo le conseguenze. AfD è stata demonizzata in quanto sarebbe stata nazionalista, sovranista ma, soprattutto, si riconosceva nel retaggio religioso, storico, culturale e sociale tedesco, ossia proprio in quei valori che i liberal socialisti odiano e combattono.

Ma i fatti hanno dimostrato come l’Elettorato abbandoni sì Unione ed spd, ma ad ovest confluiscano sui Grüne in quota maggiore che in AfD., spiazzando completamente le dirigenze della Cdu, della Csu e dell’spd.

«debating a shift away from her legacy to win back voters from the nationalist Alternative for Germany»

È semplicemente evidente quanto questo statement sia inconcludente. I nemici della grosse Koalition non è AfD, bensì Grüne, che se crescessero ancora di tre punti avrebbero anche diritto al cancellierato.

Ma chiaramente impossibile stilare ed attuare un programma che recuperi voti da ambedue gli schieramenti.

*

Sta facendo più guai Frau Merkel dell’Armata Rossa.


Bloomberg. 2018-11-18. Merkel Enters Final Act Determined to Defend Immigration Stance

– German leader faces hostility at town hall in eastern city

– Stance risks stoking conflict with next head of her party

*

German Chancellor Angela Merkel called for tolerance in a city that’s been a flashpoint of anti-immigrant unrest, laying down a political marker that may lead to conflict during the final phase of her chancellorship.

As far-right protesters organized a “Merkel Must Go” march, the chancellor faced hostile questions on a visit to the eastern city of Chemnitz. Meanwhile, her Christian Democrats are debating a shift away from her legacy to win back voters from the nationalist Alternative for Germany.

Such a move would make life more difficult for Merkel, who will quit as party leader in December but intends to serve out her fourth term, which ends in 2021. At a town hall, she stuck to her convictions when a resident asked about crime blamed on migrants, including a fatal stabbing in Chemnitz last summer.

“The outrage, which I find understandable, doesn’t justify committing further acts of violence,” Merkel said. “We’re trying to learn lessons from terrible events step by step. But we also have to be careful not to put these people under blanket suspicion.”

Polarizing Face

Candidates to succeed Merkel as party leader are grappling with her decision to keep German borders open to refugees in 2015 and 2016, which cost the CDU votes and eroded her authority. Her most formidable critic among the contenders, Friedrich Merz, said Thursday that he’d halve support for the far right if party delegates elect him chairman on Dec. 7.

Merkel, who has been in office for 13 years, increasingly antagonized members of her CDU and its Bavarian sister party by insisting her response to the biggest refugee influx since World War II was right, even as the Alternative for Germany party made her the prime target in last year’s election. At Friday’s town hall, she acknowledged her role in unusually frank terms.

“I know from the election campaign that my face is polarizing for many,” said Merkel.

Please Quit

Several members of the audience harshly criticized Merkel’s refugee policy and asked her when she would also quit as chancellor. She rebuffed the notion, saying she was duly elected.

“I think we should respect such a democratic decision by the people,” Merkel said.

The Chemnitz stabbing in August crystallized the German public’s anxiety about immigration, which has been a thorn in Merkel’s side since 2015. Far-right protests erupted in the city after the suspects were identified as asylum seekers, triggering clashes with counter-demonstrators.

Responding to video of demonstrators apparently chasing dark-skinned men through the city’s streets, Merkel’s spokesman, Steffen Seibert, condemned the “hounding” of foreigners.

That, in turn, spurred accusations from the political right that such language demeaned protesters exercising the right to free speech. Germany’s domestic intelligence chief said in an interview that some images may not have been authentic, leading to another round of political fallout when the coalition parties struggled to agree on how to respond.

Election Setbacks

By October, public frustration with the governing parties translated into losses in regional elections in Bavaria and Hesse, where support plummeted for Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, her Bavarian allies and the Social Democrats.

On Oct. 29, the chancellor stunned the political world by saying she’ll step down as CDU chairwoman, setting off a leadership contest. She also said her current term would be her last.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Psichiatria, Senza categoria, Unione Europea

Macron ci edifica con la sua umiltà. Ha detto che salverà il mondo.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-11-20.

Matto 001

Riuniti nel Club dei politici trombati e trombandi, Frau Merkel e Mr Macron hanno rilasciato delle dichiarazioni al fulmicotone.

Frau Merkel non si presenterà quale candidata al Congresso della Cdu che si terrà ai primi di dicembre e, verosimilmente, a breve dovrebbe dover rinunciare anche alla cancelleria. A giudicare dal passato, darà le dimissioni dopo aver visto i risultati delle elezioni per l’Europarlamento, ove la rappresentanza della Cdu e della Csu saranno dimezzate e quella della spd ridotta ad uno sparuto manipolo.

Mr Macron è alle prese con una Francia riottosa a riconoscere la sua infinita grandezza. Si fa fatica a crederlo, ma i francesi non lo adorano inginocchiati davanti a sì tanta grandezza. Non ci crederete, ma il suo tasso di esecrabilità è arrivato al 73% e centinaia di migliaia di francesi inferociti sono scesi nelle strade a dimostrare tutta la loro rabbia e scontento.

Ma, come ci si appella in alcune logge massoniche del nord Europa, le ‘Loro Eternità‘ si sono viste, abbracciate, debitamente baciate, ed infine hanno parlato al volgo clamante.

«We have to overcome our taboos and overcome our habits»

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«This new phase can be scary as we will have to share, pool together our decision-making, our policies on foreign affairs, migration and development, an increasing part of our budgets and even fiscal resources, build a common defense strategy»

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«France and Germany are already expected to lay out plans on Monday for a limited joint euro zone budget, which will be focused for now solely on financing investment»

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«Macron …. evoked a world “at a crossroad” in his speech, pitting nationalist movements “with no memory” against more modern, progressive ones»

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«Europe, and within it, the Franco-German alliance, has the obligation not to let the world slip into chaos»

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Già. È proprio così.

L’alleanza franco – germanica che costituisce, a dir loro, l’Unione Europea, ha l’obbligo morale di non lasciar cadere il mondo nel chaos. Vedete come sono buoni?

Non sappiamo se e fino a qual punto Mr Xi, Mr Putin e Mr Trump abbiano compreso appieno l’immensa elargizione che Frau Merkel e Mr Macron fanno loro: concedono a Cina Russia ed America di vivere nell’ordine. Ovviamente, sarà l’ordine voluto da Frau Merkel e Mr Macron.

E simile atto filantropico si concretizzerebbe in «a limited joint euro zone budget», il tutto a beneficio di Francia e Germania.

Romania. Lo speaker Florin Iordache fa il gesto del dito ai gerarchi della EU, in europarlamento.


Reuters. 2018-11-19. Germany, France must break taboos to advance on European reforms: Macron

BERLIN/PARIS (Reuters) – French President Emmanuel Macron called on Sunday for Germany and France to dig deeper as allies in their bid to spearhead a more united Europe, including by overcoming lingering scepticism on issues such as a euro zone budget.

Macron has long championed a vision for a more integrated euro zone, including through a joint budget.

With European Parliament elections looming next May, the French president has also urged pro-EU forces to rally and take concrete policy steps in a bid to fend off anti-immigrant, nationalist parties on the rise in several member states.

In a speech to the German lower house of parliament on Sunday at an event honoring war victims, Macron said the onus was on France and Germany to pursue those efforts.

“This new phase can be scary as we will have to share, pool together our decision-making, our policies on foreign affairs, migration and development, an increasing part of our budgets and even fiscal resources, build a common defense strategy,” Macron said at the Bundestag.

“We have to overcome our taboos and overcome our habits.”

France and Germany are already expected to lay out plans on Monday for a limited joint euro zone budget, which will be focused for now solely on financing investment, according to French finance ministry sources.

That means it will steer clear for now of more controversial elements, like plans to use the budget to help euro zone countries in economic downturns.

But Macron is also pushing for progress in other areas of integration, including on plans to tax internet giants which Berlin has grown hesitant on.

CROSSROADS

Macron, who later met German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin for talks, evoked a world “at a crossroad” in his speech, pitting nationalist movements “with no memory” against more modern, progressive ones.

“Europe, and within it, the Franco-German alliance, has the obligation not to let the world slip into chaos,” he said.

Macron had last week warned against the perils of nationalism at commemorations in Paris to mark the 100th anniversary of the end of World War One, sparking an outcry from U.S. President Donald Trump who blasted the French leader on Twitter days later.

Earlier on Sunday Macron joined Merkel and German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier to place wreaths at the site of the Neue Wache war memorial in Berlin.

“You made clear with an impressive speech how important the German-Franco friendship and cooperation is, and what it role it plays in the European context,” Merkel told Macron before their meeting at the chancellery.

“You said we are at a crossroads … and this is exactly what I perceive,” she said. “Those of us born after the war are responsible for the lessons that we learned.”

Merkel said she and Macron would discuss a wide range of issues including new tax structures for the digital age, migration and efforts to expand European defense cooperation.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Geopolitica America Latina.

Brasile. Bolsonaro porterà l’ambasciata da Tel Aviv a Gerusalemme.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-11-20.

Brasile 001

«Jerusalem remains to this day an obstacle to peace between Israel and Palestine. In 1980, Israel declared the whole city its “eternal and indivisible capital.” After Jordan gave up its claim to the West Bank and East Jerusalem in 1988, the state of Palestine was proclaimed. Palestine also declares, in theory, Jerusalem as its capital.»

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Czech Republic Considering Moving Embassy to Jerusalem

Australia, Malaysia at loggerheads over possible Jerusalem embassy

After US embassy makes controversial move to Jerusalem, more countries follow its lead

«The United States received intense international criticism on Monday when it celebrated the opening of its embassy in Jerusalem. It was the first country to make the “provocative” move from Tel Aviv.

But on Wednesday, Guatemala joined the U.S. in moving its embassy to Jerusalem.

More countries are preparing to make the leap. Paraguay‘s Foreign Ministry announced that its embassy will also relocate to Jerusalem, while the Czech Republic, Romania and Honduras reportedly considering the move.

These smaller countries, especially those in Latin America, may be looking to cement good relations with the U.S. in hopes of preserving foreign aid and trading status. Some are also enhancing relationships with Israel, which has courted some of them with aid and even arms sales. ….

The U.S. took a political hit in December when the United Nations voted to condemn President Donald Trump‘s decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, which angered leaders throughout the Middle East.»

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Tutto abbisogna dei propri tempi di maturazione.

Tuttavia Mr Bolsonaro sembrerebbe voler impostare una svolta netta e ben visibile rispetto alla passata gestione del Brasile.

Un aspetto che sembrerebbe essere sfuggito a molti, è la morte per stenti dapprima dell’Internazionale Socialista, quindi di Alleanza Progressista. Il cambio di rotta politica del Brasile ha dato il colpo di grazia.

Si faccia molta attenzione. Una cosa è compiere per opportunità un qualche atto che fu tipico dei governi socialisti, ed una diametralmente opposta è farla costi quel che costi perché compulsi dall’ideologia.


Deutsche Welle. 2018-11-02. Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro to move embassy to Jerusalem

The president-elect has said he plans to honor his campaign pledge to move the country’s embassy in Israel out of Tel Aviv. Brazil will join the United States and Guatemala in making the controversial move.

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Brazilian president-elect Jair Bolsonaro said on Thursday he plans to move the country’s embassy in Israel to Jerusalem from Tel Aviv.

“As previously stated during our campaign, we intend to transfer the Brazilian Embassy from Tel-Aviv to Jerusalem. Israel is a sovereign state and we shall duly respect that,” Bolsonaro tweeted.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu welcomed Bolsonaro’s plan.

“I congratulate my friend Brazilian President-Elect, Jair Bolsonaro, for his intention to move the Brazilian Embassy to Jerusalem, a historic, correct and exciting step,” Netanyahu said in a statement.

Controversial move

If Bolsonaro honors his campaign pledge, Brazil would become the third country after the United States and Guatemala to have an embassy in Jerusalem.

Paraguay also briefly shifted its embassy to Jerusalem, but moved it back to Tel Aviv following the election of its new president, Mario Abdo Benitez.

The Palestinians regard the eastern sector of Jerusalem — which Israel annexed in the 1967 Middle East war — as the capital of a future Palestine state. Israel claims the entire city, including the eastern sector where key holy sites for Christians, Muslims and Jews are located, as its capital.

Most countries maintain embassies in Tel Aviv, saying the final status of Jerusalem must be determined through negotiations.

Some Brazilians have raised concerns about Bolsonaro’s plan, saying it would hurt Brazil’s relations with Muslim nations.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Germania. Eutanasia di un sistema socio-economico. – Reuters.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-11-20.

Merkel 998

Ogni notizia può essere percepita in modi differenti, complementari.

Se quanti abbiano in uggia la Germania attuale squittiranno di gioia, i sostenitori dell’Ancien Régime se saranno fortemente contristati: la potenza economica tedesca sta traballando e cadendo a pezzi sotto il peso delle contraddizioni finanziarie, economiche e politiche dove la ha imbottigliata la Große Koalition.

Germania. La demografia che stritola. Mancano tre milioni di lavoratori. – Vbw.

Germania. Herr Spahn prospetta la tassa sul nubilato.

Germania. Come la valuta e la percepisce la White House.

Germania. Non è povera. È misera. – Financial Times

Germania. Estesi alle autostrade i divieti ai motori diesel.

Germania. Pil Q3 0.2%. Meno della Italia. Grazie Frau Merkel.

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L’attuale dirigenza al potere, la Groβe Koalition è causa efficiente di codesto sfacelo, ragion per cui gli Elettori la stanno duramente punendo. Sarebbe fuori luogo una trattazione esaustiva: ne enfatizzeremo solo alcuni aspetti.

L’automotive è da oltre settanta anni il principale punto di forza della produzione industriale tedesca: in questo settore il marchio ‘made in Germany‘ era diventato, a ragione, un mito.

Ma tra un prodotto ‘made in Germany‘ ed un prodotto ‘made by germans‘ corre una differenza abissale: non sono per nulla sinonimi. Anzi, quest’ultima categoria, il ‘made by germans‘ sta semplicemente scomparendo dai mercati, e questi ne sono perfettamente coscienti.

L’automotive tedesca ha trasferito larga quota della sua produzione all’estero, nella presunzione di poterla continuare a governare e gestire anche se locata fisicamente ovunque tranne che in Germania. Grossolano errore di valutazione.

A questa scriteriata valutazione di politica economica si è aggiunta la fattiva collaborazione governativa.

Sotto l’egida dello slogan ‘Grüne è bello‘ la Germania iniziò una decina di anni or sono una sordida guerra alla trazione diesel, che guarda caso costituiva il comparto più remunerativo della propria produzione automotive.

L’ideologia imperante impose quindi una serie di limitazioni sempre più severe alle emissioni dei gas di scarico.

Se di per sé la cosa avrebbe ben potuto essere anche ragionevole, l’entità delle restrizioni erano del tutto avulse dalle reali possibilità tecniche e, soprattutto, conflittuali con una produzione di massa a costi accettabili per il mercato.

Le industrie automobilistiche furono obbligate a manipolare i dati delle emissioni nel disperato tentativo di restare sul mercato. Ma la cosa non poteva restare segreta a lungo, ed erano in molti a non vedere l’ora che la supremazia tedesca nel settore fosse ampiamente ridimensionata.

Scoppiò il Dieselgate, dapprima negli Stati Uniti, quindi nella stessa Germania.

Inutile dire che Mr Trump non si fece dire due volte di intervenire, e con la mano pesante:in politica si ottiene moto di più sfruttando gli errori dell’avversario che assumendo iniziative proprie.

Il Governo della Bundeskanzlerin Frau Merkel si arroccò tetragono sulle proprie ideologie.

Si diede quindi inizio alla fiera delle ambiguità. Chi recitava la parte del mentitore lo faceva alla grande, così come chi faceva finta di non voler vedere, anche egli lo faceva alla grande.

Aristotele, Platone, Senofonte, Cesare, Tacito, Boezio, per non parlare poi del grande Machiavelli, si erano sgolati ad avvertire i futuri governanti: non elicitate certi demoni, che alla fine vi si ritorcono contro. Si evocano solo per annientare, non per ferire.

Successe quello che un qualsiasi scugnizzo napoletano avrebbe predetto con il sorriso sulle labbra.

I tribunali tedeschi iniziarono ad applicare le leggi dello stato. Proprio le leggi stilate dalla Große Koalition.

Le automobili diesel furono bandite dapprima nei centri urbani, quindi anche dalle autostrade.

La più redditizia e qualificante produzione industriale tedesca era finita fuori legge, si per l’uso si anche come possibile resa durante una permutazione.  

Ma anche in questa evenienza la Bundeskanzlerin Frau Merkel rimase immobile.

Tutto il resto è mera conseguenza.

«Last month, Germany’s DIHK Chambers of Industry and Commerce cut its 2018 growth forecast to 1.8 percent from 2.2 percent and predicted a slowdown to 1.7 percent next year as the economy faces growing risks at home and abroad»

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«The poor export performance, despite a weak euro exchange rate, suggests that trade tensions and weaknesses in emerging markets could continue to weigh on Germany’s growth performance»

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«In addition to anxiety about the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s abrasive trade policy, German firms are concerned about instability at home where Chancellor Angela Merkel’s awkward ‘grand coalition’ has come close to collapsing twice»

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«Germany’s economy contracted for the first time since 2015 in the third quarter as global trade disputes and problems in the auto industry put the traditional growth engine of exports into reverse, raising concerns that a long expansion is faltering.»

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«Gross domestic product (GDP) in Europe’s biggest economy fell 0.2 percent quarter-on-quarter, the Federal Statistics Office said on Wednesday. That compared with a Reuters forecast of a 0.1 percent drop.»

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«The slight decline in GDP compared to the previous quarter was mainly due to foreign trade developments: provisional calculations show there were fewer exports but more imports in the third quarter than in the second»

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«Germany doesn’t have an economic problem but rather an auto sector problem. Due to the sluggish certification of cars, car production had to be noticeably reduced, with collateral damage for other sectors too»

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Ci sarebbe ben poco da aggiungere.

Ai primi di dicembre la Cdu eleggerà il nuovo presidente del partito, che di norma svolge anche il ruolo di Cancelliere. Vedremo come evolveranno le cose. Di certo, Frau Merkel lascia dietro di sé un cumulo di rovine.



Reuters. 2018-11-17. German economy contracts on weak foreign trade, auto bottleneck

Germany’s economy contracted for the first time since 2015 in the third quarter as global trade disputes and problems in the auto industry put the traditional growth engine of exports into reverse, raising concerns that a long expansion is faltering.

Gross domestic product (GDP) in Europe’s biggest economy fell 0.2 percent quarter-on-quarter, the Federal Statistics Office said on Wednesday. That compared with a Reuters forecast of a 0.1 percent drop.

But the Economy Ministry said the upswing would resume in the fourth quarter, adding that the slowdown between July and September had been a temporary phenomenon as car companies struggled to adjust to new pollution standards known as WLTP.

“A 0.2 percent contraction isn’t a catastrophe,” Economy Minister Peter Altmaier said in Berlin.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, the economy grew 1.1 percent in the third quarter, calendar-adjusted data showed. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected 1.3 percent.

“The slight decline in GDP compared to the previous quarter was mainly due to foreign trade developments: provisional calculations show there were fewer exports but more imports in the third quarter than in the second,” the Office said.

Separately, Germany’s BDI industry association cut its 2018 export growth forecast to 3 percent from 3.5 percent on Wednesday, the second cut in as many months.

The third-quarter dip in GDP was the first time the economy has contracted since the first quarter of 2015.

The government had flagged a weaker third quarter last month, citing bottlenecks in the car sector stemming from the introduction of WLTP as a factor.

“Germany doesn’t have an economic problem but rather an auto sector problem. Due to the sluggish certification of cars, car production had to be noticeably reduced, with collateral damage for other sectors too,” said Andreas Scheuerle at DekaBank.

The Economy Ministry said problems adapting to the WLTP had probably shaved up to 0.4 percentage points off third quarter GDP.

“The upturn was merely disrupted during the third quarter,” the ministry said in its monthly report, adding: “Once these special effects have dissipated, the German economy’s upturn will continue.”

However, the ZEW research institute said on Tuesday that investors do not expect the German economy to recover rapidly from the weak patch.

Concerns are growing in the German economy, which is in its ninth year of expansion, about the impact of global trade disputes and Britain’s departure from the European Union.

In addition to anxiety about the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s abrasive trade policy, German firms are concerned about instability at home where Chancellor Angela Merkel’s awkward ‘grand coalition’ has come close to collapsing twice.

Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING, said that even though he expected the auto sector to rebound in the fourth quarter, the GDP figures period were a “wake-up call that political stability and strong growth are by no means a given”.

“The poor export performance, despite a weak euro exchange rate, suggests that trade tensions and weaknesses in emerging markets could continue to weigh on Germany’s growth performance,” he said in a research note.

Last month, Germany’s DIHK Chambers of Industry and Commerce cut its 2018 growth forecast to 1.8 percent from 2.2 percent and predicted a slowdown to 1.7 percent next year as the economy faces growing risks at home and abroad.