Pubblicato in: Cina, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Cina mon amour. Maggio. Ford aumenta le vendite in Cina +32%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-06-05.

Aeroporto di Pechino 001

«Ford Motor’s China ventures have reported year-on-year sales growth for May»

«The U.S. automaker’s Chongqing-based venture with Changan sold 23,491 vehicles in May, up 130% from a year earlier»

«Jiangling Motors Corp (JMC), in which Ford owns a stake, said in a filing on Wednesday that it sold 29,008 vehicles last month, up 32% year on year»

«sales of its luxury Lincoln brand in China reached 5,000 units last month, up 22%.»

Si noti come questi incrementi a due cifre siano relativi al mese di maggio, quando la Cina era appena uscita dal lockdown. Gli economisti occidentali la davano per spacciata.

A giudicare da questi dati, la domanda interna cinese ha risentito relativamente poco dell’epidemia da coronavirus.

Ma il caso della Ford non è certo isolato.

Cina. Anche Volkswagen vi programma grandi investimenti.

Cina ed Hong Kong. I media occidentali hanno cambiato registro.

Cina e Red Bull Gmbh. Un mercato impossibile da trascurare.

Cina. Multinazionali aprono in continuazione stabilimenti. – Nestlé.

Cina. Aprile. Produzione Industriale Annualizzata +3.9%.

Daimler, Mercedes Benz, ha ripreso la produzione in Cina.

Exxon Mobil Corp e la Cina. Notizia non economica bensì politica.

Cina mon amour. Maggio. Prada +10%.

*

Checché ne pensino i governanti occidentali, le grandi aziende di questo blocco trovano decisamente conveniente impiantarsi e vendere in Cina. Lì possono lavorare senza troppi ostacoli ed ottenerne i leciti guadagni. Poi, farle ritornare nel blocco occidentale sarà cosa ben difficile.

*

Ford’s China ventures increase May sales as market rebounds

Ford Motor’s (F.N) China ventures have reported year-on-year sales growth for May in a sign of how the world’s biggest auto market is continuing its recovery from coronavirus-induced lows.

The U.S. automaker’s Chongqing-based venture with Changan sold 23,491 vehicles in May, up 130% from a year earlier, it said on Thursday.

Jiangling Motors Corp (JMC), in which Ford owns a stake, said in a filing on Wednesday that it sold 29,008 vehicles last month, up 32% year on year.

Separately, Ford also said that sales of its luxury Lincoln brand in China reached 5,000 units last month, up 22%.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Ong - Ngo, Unione Europea

Grecia. Nuova legge sulle ngo. Nel 2015-2019 hanno sperperato 1.3 mld nel ‘people trafficking’. Solo in Grecia ….

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-06-07.

Atene 003

In Grecia stanno operando 86 ngo, delle quali 73 nazionali e 13 internazionali.

«Greece’s migration and asylum minister, Notis Mitarachi blamed NGOs without providing evidence, for mismanaging some €1.3bn EU funds between 2015 and 2019.»

«politicians from Greece’s ruling party New Democracy, who have accused some NGOs of smuggling and people trafficking»

*

Commissione Europea tace ed avvalla la Grecia sul problema dei migranti.

Grecia, Eu e migranti. Liberal socialisti verso l’emarginazione.

Lesbo. Gli abitanti contro i clandestini. La polizia spara. Almeno un morto.

Grecia. Schiera esercito al confine turco contro i migranti.

Grecia respinge con cariche e lacrimogeni 4,000 migranti.

Turkia convoglia migranti in Grecia. Ne ha 950,000.

Grecia. Rivolta armata contro immigrati e centri di raccolta.

Grecia. Exit polls. Nea Demokratia ~40%. Forse maggioranza di seggi. – Aljazeera.

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I migranti clandestini illegali dal Medio Oriente transitavano in Turkia e di qui buona quota raggiungeva la Grecia. Lo scorso anno la Grecia si è opposta militarmente a questa nuova invasione, invasione peraltro appoggiata sul suolo greco dall’azione delle ngo che si occupano dei migranti. Il Governo greco, cambiato nel luglio dello scorso anno, ha bollato queste ngo come organizzazioni dedite alla ‘tratta dei migranti’, che hanno sperperato 1.3 miliardi nella sola Grecia, tra il 2015-2019. Data l’entità della cifra si possono capire molte cose.

Si noti come l’Unione Europea, nella figura della Commissione Europea, abbia approvato che la Grecia avesse fatto intervenire l’esercito per bloccare una simile invasione, anche usando la forza e le armi.

È del tutto evidente che una situazione del genere necessitava di un intervento governativo, per dare regole e norme chiare e trasparenti alle ngo che operano sul suolo greco, spesso svolgendo azioni in netto contrasto con le decisioni politiche governative.

Le ngo non sono più da considerarsi uno stato dentro lo stato. Ameno in Grecia.

*

Non è questa la prima presa di posizione contro le attività delle ngo.

Libia.Vieta alle ngo la tratta dei migranti.

Europarlamento. Liberal socialisti battuti sulla mozione sui migranti ed ngo.

Russia. Nuova legge sulle ong (ngo). Povero Mr Soros.

Polonia. Scacciare le ong (ngo) di Mr Soros.

Repubblica Ceka. Rivolta aperta contro le ngo di Mr Soros.

Orban contro Soros. Nuova legge sulle Ong.

Unione Europea ed ngo. Un fiume di denaro non tracciabile. I numeri.

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«New Greek rules stigmatise NGOs working with migrants»

«The Greek government is targeting NGOs working with migrants as part of a politicised effort to curtail asylum»

«New ministerial rules introduced earlier this year and inserted into a wider migration law in May only apply to civil society groups that deals with refugees and asylum»

«Athens says the rules are needed for greater transparency and accountability but NGOs argue they also discriminate and are almost impossible to implement for smaller grassroots organisations»

«the new rules impose extra conditions on the registration of civil society outfits»

«The law maintains a clear discretion on the ministry of migration and asylum to deny registration – even if the requirements are met»

«NGOs that help asylum seekers are now required to register with the ministry of asylum and migration»

«They are also required to be certified should they wish to receive state-level or EU funding. …. they are required to show financial statements dating back two years»

«that it only targets NGOs working with refugees, and requires they get audited by certified auditors, and other bureaucratic obligations, that risk creating a chilling effect.»

«This new process will exclude many organisations because they don’t have the budget to cover this exorbitant costs»

«Greece currently has around 86 registered NGOs working on migration. Of those, 73 are national and 13 international.»

«The previous government in Greece, voted out of power last summer, had set up a registry for NGOs»

«As it stands, the law seems to have been activated in order to punish and exclude NGOs from public affairs instead of regulating their action by integrating them into a transparent and accountable collaborative framework with the state and citizens»

«politicians from Greece’s ruling party New Democracy, who have accused some NGOs of smuggling and people trafficking»

«Greece’s migration and asylum minister, Notis Mitarachi blamed NGOs without providing evidence, for mismanaging some €1.3bn EU funds between 2015 and 2019.»

* * * * * * *

La rivolta contro le ngo prosegue.

«minister …. blamed NGOs …. for mismanaging some €1.3bn EU funds between 2015 and 2019.»

«politicians …. have accused some NGOs of smuggling and people trafficking»

E la Commissione Europea tace.

*


Eu Observer. New Greek rules stigmatise NGOs working with migrants

The Greek government is targeting NGOs working with migrants as part of a politicised effort to curtail asylum.

New ministerial rules introduced earlier this year and inserted into a wider migration law in May only apply to civil society groups that deals with refugees and asylum.

Athens says the rules are needed for greater transparency and accountability but NGOs argue they also discriminate and are almost impossible to implement for smaller grassroots organisations.

Drafted by the Greek ministry of finance and the ministry of migration and asylum, the new rules impose extra conditions on the registration of civil society outfits.

“The law maintains a clear discretion on the ministry of migration and asylum to deny registration – even if the requirements are met,” said Minos Mouzourakis, a legal officer at Refugee Support Aegean.

NGOs that help asylum seekers are now required to register with the ministry of asylum and migration. They are also required to be certified should they wish to receive state-level or EU funding.

In affect, the rules essentially prevent new NGOs from registering – because they are required to show financial statements dating back two years.

Chilling effect

Melina Spathari at Terre des Hommes Hellas, an international NGO, says a centralised updated registry of NGOs will enhance transparency.

But she pointed out that it only targets NGOs working with refugees, and requires they get audited by certified auditors, and other bureaucratic obligations, that risk creating a chilling effect.

“This new process will exclude many organisations because they don’t have the budget to cover this exorbitant costs. We are talking about very small civil society organisations, grass roots,” she said.

It also means asylum seekers and refugees may stand to lose out given many rely on the NGOs for basic needs in Greece.

Greece currently has around 86 registered NGOs working on migration. Of those, 73 are national and 13 international.

The previous government in Greece, voted out of power last summer, had set up a registry for NGOs. But the new registry for NGO staff created earlier this year is adding a whole new layer of requirements.

“This has happened in the context of a deteriorating public narrative around NGOs and specifically NGOs that work with asylum seekers and migrants and people on the move in general,” said Adriana Tidona, a researcher on migration at Amnesty International’s European office.

Tidona says the new rules are posing serious questions when it comes to the freedom of association, the freedom of expression, discrimination and the right to privacy.

“It is also concerning that the registration is basically entrusted to an authority which is not independent from the government,” she said.

Also known as the ‘special coordinating secretary’, it can approve or revoke registrations at any moment.

Doctors of the World Greece said the secretary’s power is too great, noting it will be able to reject an application even if all the legal requirements are met.

“As it stands, the law seems to have been activated in order to punish and exclude NGOs from public affairs instead of regulating their action by integrating them into a transparent and accountable collaborative framework with the state and citizens,” said Elli Xenou at Doctors of the World Greece.

Such moves appear to align with public statements made by politicians from Greece’s ruling party New Democracy, who have accused some NGOs of smuggling and people trafficking.

More recently, Greece’s migration and asylum minister, Notis Mitarachi blamed NGOs without providing evidence, for mismanaging some €1.3bn EU funds between 2015 and 2019.

Tacit support

The move comes amid heightened tensions over migration following Turkey’s failed bid to send thousands of refugee hopefuls into Greece in March.

It also comes amid ongoing silence by a European Commission on alleged rights abuses in Greece after the country suspended asylum applications for a month.

Asked to comment on the new rules, the European Commission has yet to respond to this website.

But in March, the European Commission’s vice-president Margaritis Schinas tasked to promote ‘our European way of life’ offered a clue.

“EU support will be unequivocal,” said Schinas when asked about Greece suspending asylum claims.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Unione Europea

Polonia. Maggio. Pil annualizzato +2.0%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-06-07.

2020-06-07__Poland pil 013

Ungheria, Polonia e Romania sono la pulpite purulenta del blocco europeo e dei liberal socialisti.

Quegli staterelli non hanno aderito all’euro e si sono tenuti ben strette le proprie valute, sono dannatamente cristiani ed attaccati alle loro tradizioni religiose, storiche, sociali ed economiche, poi, per soprammercato, sono culture antiabortiste e non accettano l’imposizione dell’etica liberal.

Ma per fare buon peso, mentre tutti i paesi del blocco europeo sono nei triboli di una crisi economica senza precedenti, a maggio il pil annualizzato ungherese ha registrato un +2.2%, quello della Romania un +2.4% e quello polacco un +2.0%.

Quegli stati sono la dimostrazione vivente di cosa voglia dire avere un governo onesto e capace, e svergognano il blocco europeo.

«Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki is optimistic that the country’s economy will perform better than expected by analysts this year, thanks in part to government relief efforts»

«The European Union forecast a 4.3% decline in Poland’s gross domestic product in 2020, the best performance expected among the bloc’s 27 nations during the coronavirus pandemic»

«“Most financial institutions predict about a 4% fall in GDP,” Morawiecki told radio RMF on Saturday. “I hope that it will be lower than forecasts.”»

* * * * * * *

Verosimilmente questi stati risentiranno del rallentamento dei commerci, ma dai dati macro disponibili le previsioni fatte dall’Unione Europea apparirebbero essere un po’ troppo pessimiste.

*


 Polish Premier Says Economic Performance May Beat Forecasts.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki is optimistic that the country’s economy will perform better than expected by analysts this year, thanks in part to government relief efforts.

The European Union forecast a 4.3% decline in Poland’s gross domestic product in 2020, the best performance expected among the bloc’s 27 nations during the coronavirus pandemic. The median forecast from a Bloomberg survey of economists shows it shrinking by 3.8% this year.

“Most financial institutions predict about a 4% fall in GDP,” Morawiecki told radio RMF on Saturday. “I hope that it will be lower than forecasts.”

The premier, who this week said the country’s “anti-crisis shield” will total 400 billion zloty ($102 billion) in relief and subsidies, or about 17% of GDP, expects the unemployment rate to stay in the single digits throughout 2020.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Commercio, Materie Prime

Cina. Maxipetroliere in rada in attesa di scaricare. La ripresa corre veloce.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-06-06.

2020-06-03__Cina Petroiere in Rada 012

Secondo i media occidentali la Cina sarebbe stata prostrata economicamente dall’epidemia di coronavirus: la sua ripresa sarebbe un obiettivo alle calende greche, ben più tribolato di quello prossimo futuro dell’occidente.

Sta di fatto che i dati macro che affluiscono sono sostanzialmente molto buoni.

Sono chiaramente falsi‘ gridano in molti, accodandosi al trend in atto di parlar male di quella nazione.

Di questi giorni la notizia che Prada a maggio ha incrementato le vendite in Cina del +10%: non male per un paese che sarebbe stato ridotto alla fame.

«Oil tankers queuing off chinese coast evidence of rapid rebound»

«Two dozen or more ships waiting to offload crude cargoes»

«Congestion seen off Shandong province, home to most teapots»

«Queues of tankers have formed off China’s busiest oil ports as the vessels wait to offload crude for refineries that are quickly ramping up production amid a rapid rebound in fuel demand»

«Two dozen or more crude-laden tankers are waiting to discharge at terminals on China’s east coast that supply state-owned and independent refiners in the region, according shipbrokers and vessel-tracking data»

«Chinese refineries are increasing operations to convert more crude into gasoline and diesel after factories reopened and millions of people returned to work following the easing of restrictions»

«Government policy dictating that the retail price of fuels won’t be cut in line with sub-$40 a barrel oil has also boosted refining margins in the country.»

«The fleet of tankers arrived in Chinese waters during the second half of May and the ships have been idling off ports in Shandong and Liaoning provinces»

«Most of the vessels are Suezmaxes and Very-Large Crude Carriers, which are estimated to be collectively carrying about 4 million tons or more of oil from countries including Russia, Colombia, Angola and Brazil.»

«Run rates rose to a record high of about 76% at the end of May, compared with a low of 42% in February, according to industry consultant SCI99»

«Meanwhile, the queues might get even longer, with the highest number of supertankers»

* * * * * * *

2020-06-03__Cina Petroiere in Rada 013

Le fotografie da satellite sono evidenti.

Sarebbe sempre opportuno non fidarsi mai troppo della propaganda di una parte avversa. Poi, le bugie hanno le gambe corte.

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Oil Tankers Queuing Off Chinese Coast Evidence of Rapid Rebound

– Two dozen or more ships waiting to offload crude cargoes

– Congestion seen off Shandong province, home to most teapots

*

Queues of tankers have formed off China’s busiest oil ports as the vessels wait to offload crude for refineries that are quickly ramping up production amid a rapid rebound in fuel demand.

Two dozen or more crude-laden tankers are waiting to discharge at terminals on China’s east coast that supply state-owned and independent refiners in the region, according shipbrokers and vessel-tracking data. Asia’s largest economy is leading a recovery in oil consumption, with demand in May almost back to levels seen before the coronavirus triggered stay-at-home orders.

Chinese refineries are increasing operations to convert more crude into gasoline and diesel after factories reopened and millions of people returned to work following the easing of restrictions. Government policy dictating that the retail price of fuels won’t be cut in line with sub-$40 a barrel oil has also boosted refining margins in the country.

“China’s demand recovery and current low oil prices have prompted refiners, especially the independents, to ramp up crude runs,” said Serena Huang, a Singapore-based analyst at analytics firm Vortexa Ltd. “This crude import momentum could be rolling over to June if refiners’ appetite remain strong.”

The fleet of tankers arrived in Chinese waters during the second half of May and the ships have been idling off ports in Shandong and Liaoning provinces, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Most of the vessels are Suezmaxes and Very-Large Crude Carriers, which are estimated to be collectively carrying about 4 million tons or more of oil from countries including Russia, Colombia, Angola and Brazil.

Shandong is home to the Qingdao and Rizhao terminals and China’s independent refiners — known as teapots — that have staged a v-shaped recovery. Run rates rose to a record high of about 76% at the end of May, compared with a low of 42% in February, according to industry consultant SCI99.

Meanwhile, the queues might get even longer, with the highest number of supertankers since at least the start of 2017 hauling crude to China from almost everywhere across the globe.

“Low oil prices will also be supportive for strategic storage,” said Anoop Singh, who heads East of Suez tanker research at Braemar ACM Shipbroking in Singapore. “This will surely worsen the state of congestion at China’s ports.”

Pubblicato in: India, Sistemi Economici

India. Consumi elettrici. Aprile -24%, maggio -14.3%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-06-06.

India 013

India. Aprile. Consumi elettrici -24%.

Arun. Centrale idroelettrica condivisa tra India e Nepal.

India. Modi. Una rivoluzione nella politica economica. ‘Self-reliant India’.

India. Tra cinque anni sorpasserà Germania e Regno Unito.

«Overall electricity generation fell 14.3% in May, a Reuters analysis of provisional government data showed, compared with a decline of 24% in April »

«Despite higher consumption by residential consumers, power use was lower as many industries and commercial establishments – which account for over half of India’s annual consumption – were shut or not operating at full capacity»

«Electricity generation from coal …. fell 22%, …. Coal’s contribution to overall electricity generation in May fell to 64.2%, compared with an average of over 70.7% last year»

«Thermal coal imports by India – the second-largest consumer, importer and producer of coal and third-largest greenhouse gas emitter – could fall as much as 18% in 2020 due to lower electricity demand»

* * * * * * *

L’India ha evidenziato l’epidemia da coronavirus alcuni mesi dopo la Cina e l’Europa, motivo per cui i dati macro disponibili sono ancora ragionevoli: il pil annuale è 4.2% (2020-05-29) ma la produzione industriale annualizzata di aprile era già scesa del -16.7%. A maggio le riserve valutarie erano salite a 490 miliardi Usd.

Allo stato attuale dei fatti, verosimilmente i macrodati del secondo trimestre saranno ulteriormente deteriorati.

*


UPDATE 1-India’s electricity generation falls 14.3% in May.

India’s electricity generation in May fell at a slower pace than in April, as higher temperatures lead to greater demand for residential power and the government eased some lockdown restrictions to control the spread of the coronavirus.

Overall electricity generation fell 14.3% in May, a Reuters analysis of provisional government data showed, compared with a decline of 24% in April.

Despite higher consumption by residential consumers, power use was lower as many industries and commercial establishments – which account for over half of India’s annual consumption – were shut or not operating at full capacity.

Electricity generation from coal – India’s primary source of electricity – fell 22%, an analysis of daily load despatch data from POSOCO showed. Coal’s contribution to overall electricity generation in May fell to 64.2%, compared with an average of over 70.7% last year.

India’s electricity demand is likely to fall for the first time in at least four decades this fiscal year, analysts say, adding to the woes of coal-fired utilities, which were already hurting due to a prolonged industrial slowdown.

Thermal coal imports by India – the second-largest consumer, importer and producer of coal and third-largest greenhouse gas emitter – could fall as much as 18% in 2020 due to lower electricity demand, Anurag Sehgal, an analyst at Noble Resources said, a blow to miners in Indonesia and South Africa.

Menwhile, India’s solar power supply grew 12.7% and hydro-powered electricity supply rose 3.6%, while gas-fired power output was 13.8% higher, the data showed. However, wind-powered electricity supply fell 10.8%.

The share of fossil fuels in overall electricity generation in May was 70.71%, compared with 76% the previous year, an analysis of data from POSOCO showed.

Pubblicato in: Demografia, Medicina e Biologia

Germania. Aprile. Mortalità in eccesso anno su anno +8%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-06-06.

2020-06-01-_Destatis morti 013

Destatis, l’Istituto di Statistica tedesco, ha rilasciato la comparazione del numero di decessi avvenuti nell’aprile di questo anno e quelli accaduti nella media di alcuni anni precedenti.

In aprile il numero dei decessi è stato 82,246, ossia 5,942 (8%) casi in più rispetto la media dei quattro anni passati, e questo eccesso corrisponde ai morti accertati per Covid-19.

Mentre in Baviera l’eccesso di mortalità è del +18% e nel Baden-Württemberg del +16%, nel Nordrhein-Westfalen è del solo +5%.

Il surplus di mortalità tedesca è minore rispetto a quello riportato per gli altri paesi europei.

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Destats ha rilasciato il Report

Mortality figures 8% higher in April 2020 than the average across previous years.

According to provisional results, at least 82,246 people died in Germany in April 2020. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that this was 8% (+5,942 cases) more than the average across the previous four years. The last time that more than 80,000 deaths in Germany were recorded in April was in 1977.

In Week 18 (27 April to 3 May 2020), that is the week for which the most recent mortality figures are available, at least 17,312 people died in Germany. Mortality figures were thus down by 799 cases from the previous week (20 to 26 April); they were roughly 2% above the average across 2016 to 2019. When that week is compared with the same week of each individual year, it turns out that the number of deaths was within a range of 3% above the figure recorded for 2018 and 1% above the figure for 2017. Increased mortality figures have been observed since Week 13 (23 to 29 March). The deviation was largest in Week 15 (6 to 12 April) with 2,316 or 13% more deaths compared with the four-year average.

The total number of deaths from Week 13 to Week 18 was by 7,486 cases higher than the average across the previous four years. In regional terms, this development is mainly due to three Länder. Mortality figures in Bayern were by 2,719 deaths (+18%) above the average of the previous four years, in Baden-Württemberg by 1,958 (+16%) and in Nordrhein-Westfalen by 1,254 (+5%).

Connection with corona pandemic seems likely

These findings about excess mortality, as it is called, correspond with the data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths reported to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) when the absolute figures are considered. According to RKI information, a total 7,083 people with laboratory confirmed COVID-19 disease died in Weeks 13 to 18. The development over time was roughly parallel, too. Both the deviation of totals from the average and the number of COVID-19 deaths were highest in Week 15. However, this does not mean that all additional deaths counted in death statistics were people who died from COVID-19. Decreases or increases in other causes of death may also have an effect on the total number of deaths. This year’s influenza epidemic, which is a possible influencing factor, is deemed to be over since mid-March. Usually, waves of influenza have an impact on mortality figures until mid-April.

Excess mortality comparatively low in Germany

Excess mortality in Germany is low compared with other European countries. The statistical institute of France, for instance, reports that mortality was up 27% in the period from 1 March to 20 April on a year earlier. The national statistical institute of Italy (Istat) reports that there were even 49% more deaths in March 2020 than in the years 2015 to 2019, on average. The national statistical institutes of Belgium, Great Britain, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland and Spain also record higher mortality figures. In many countries, the peak has been passed, and the extent of excess mortality is decreasing, as in Germany. No unusual changes on the preceding years have been observed in Norway and in the Czech Republic.

The figures provided by these countries are based on national methods and individual time periods. Some data refer to the reporting date, not the actual death date. The proportions of missing data reports differ, too, and depend strongly on how recent the missing data are.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Stati Uniti

USA. Maggio. Occupati salgono di 2.5 milioni. Disoccupati scesi al 13.3%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-06-05.

2020-06-05__Usa Occupati 000

Il Bureau of Labor Statistics ha aggiornato con i dati di maggio la Tabella LNS11000000

Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey

Civilian labor force. 16 years and over.

Come si constata, a fine maggio il numero degli occupati ammontava a 158.277 milioni, contro il valore di 156.481 milioni registrati a fine aprile. Rispetto a gennaio 2020 gli occupati sono scesi di 6.329 milioni.

* * * * * * *

«Employers added 2.5 million jobs last month»

«The U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 13.3% in May, slightly below the April high of 14.7%, according to data released Friday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics»

«Really Big Jobs Report. Great going President Trump (kidding but true)!»

«Chris Zaccarelli, the chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance, called the jobs numbers “shocking” and “for the first time this year it was a positive shock.”»

«The leisure and hospitality sector saw an increase of 1.2 million jobs in May after losses of 7.5 million jobs in April»

«Food and drinking places gained 1.4 million jobs last month after losing more than 6 million jobs in March and April combined»

«Employment in construction increased by 464,000 in May, gaining back almost half of the jobs lost in April»

«Meanwhile, employment in retail rose by 368,000 last month but lost more than 2 million jobs in April»

* * * * * * *

2020-06-05__Usa Occupati 002

«Economists had expected the unemployment rate to be even worse in May, rising to nearly 20%. But the gradual reopening of the economy actually added new jobs rather than eliminating further positions» [Cnn]

Mai credere agli economisti che vivono di denaro pubblico ottenuto dai politici e che siano rimasti poveri: i loro consigli ci fanno diventare prima poveri e poi miseri. Chi non sa guadagnare per sé non arricchisce certo gli altri.

Nessuno si monti la testa per codesto risultato.

Il dato ufficiale sugli occupati è notizia buona e confortante, ma la ripresa sarà evidenziata anche dalla normalizzazione dei consumi interni, delle esportazioni e di un calo consistente delle richieste di sussidi.

Nota.

Se rispetto a gennaio 2020 gli occupati sono scesi di 6.329 milioni, come si fa a parlare di “tens of millions of Americans still out of work“?

Questa constatazione dovrebbe indurre all’uso di molta prudenza nella lettura dei media, troppo spesso molto ‘spigliati’ nel riportare le cose.

*


US unemployment rate fell slightly to 13.3% in May

Employers added 2.5 million jobs last month.

The U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 13.3% in May, slightly below the April high of 14.7%, according to data released Friday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Employers added 2.5 million jobs last month as economic activity slowly resumes and coronavirus pandemic restrictions ease.

The numbers represent a much more optimistic view for the economy moving forward. President Donald Trump tweeted after the report was released, writing, “Really Big Jobs Report. Great going President Trump (kidding but true)!”

While the unemployment figures may be lower than expected, economists warn they are still at devastating highs.

“Although today’s report feels like a relief for many, it’s important to remember the labor market still faces an unemployment rate at the highest level since the Great Depression with tens of millions of Americans still out of work,” Glassdoor senior economist Daniel Zhao said in a commentary Friday morning. “While the labor market may be on the path to recovery, there is still a long way to go until the labor market returns to pre-crisis levels and makes up for lost growth.”

Chris Zaccarelli, the chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance, called the jobs numbers “shocking” and “for the first time this year it was a positive shock.”

“At 13.3%, we are still at a higher rate than any that we hit during the Financial Crisis in 2007-2009, but as long as that continues to move lower, it will show that the re-opening of the economy is proceeding smoothly,” he added.

Some of the most notable job gains in May occurred in leisure and hospitality, construction and retail trade as those sectors begin to reopen.

“These improvements in the labor market reflected a limited resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it,” the government said in its news release Friday.

The leisure and hospitality sector saw an increase of 1.2 million jobs in May after losses of 7.5 million jobs in April. Food and drinking places gained 1.4 million jobs last month after losing more than 6 million jobs in March and April combined.

Employment in construction increased by 464,000 in May, gaining back almost half of the jobs lost in April. Meanwhile, employment in retail rose by 368,000 last month but lost more than 2 million jobs in April.

The accommodation industry, however, lost 148,000 jobs last month and 1.1 million jobs in total since February.

Some economists are still taking a more measured outlook on the economy.

“As the economy reopens a lot of the jobs aren’t going to come back right away. A lot of people are still trying to figure out … how do they operate it safely and in compliance,” Karen Kimbrough, the chief economist at LinkedIn, told ABC News. “And they may not need as many people or they may need different types of people.”

Jasmine Wright, a small business owner from Akron, Ohio, who was able to reopen her clothing boutique last Friday, said sales are still down despite reopening.

“COVID has affected my business with a lot of sale,” Wright told ABC News. “I went from being open every day into just not being able to open at all not being able to engage with my customers.”

In February, prior to the health crisis, the unemployment rate was at a historic low of 3.5%.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali

Istat. Aprile. Vendite al dettaglio. Non alimentari -24%, piccoli negozi -62.2%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-06-05.

2020-06-05__Istat. 001

«Commercio al Dettaglio.

– Ad aprile 2020 si stima, per le vendite al dettaglio, una diminuzione rispetto a marzo del 10,5% in valore e dell’11,4% in volume. Come per lo scorso mese, a determinare il forte calo sono le vendite dei beni non alimentari, che diminuiscono del 24,0% in valore e del 24,5% in volume, mentre quelle dei beni alimentari aumentano in valore (+0,6%) e sono in diminuzione in volume (-0,4%).

– Nel trimestre febbraio-aprile 2020, le vendite al dettaglio registrano un calo del 15,8% in valore e del 16,6% in volume rispetto al trimestre precedente. Diminuiscono le vendite dei beni non alimentari (-29,9% in valore e -30,1% in volume), mentre le vendite dei beni alimentari mostrano variazioni positive (rispettivamente +3,1% in valore e +2,4% in volume).

– Su base tendenziale, ad aprile, si registra una diminuzione delle vendite del 26,3% in valore e del 28,1% in volume. Sono ancora le vendite dei beni non alimentari a calare sensibilmente (-52,2% in valore e -52,5% in volume), mentre crescono quelle dei beni alimentari (+6,1% in valore e +2,9% in volume).

– Per quanto riguarda i beni non alimentari, si registrano variazioni tendenziali negative per tutti i gruppi di prodotti. Le diminuzioni maggiori riguardano Calzature, articoli in cuoio e da viaggio (-90,6%), Mobili, articoli tessili e arredamento (-83,6%), Abbigliamento e pellicceria (-83,4%) e Giochi, giocattoli, sport e campeggio (-82,5%), mentre il calo minore si registra per i Prodotti farmaceutici (-3,5%).

– Rispetto ad aprile 2019, il valore delle vendite al dettaglio diminuisce del 16,4% per la grande distribuzione e del 37,1% per le imprese operanti su piccole superfici. Le vendite al di fuori dei negozi calano del 45,2% mentre è in deciso aumento il commercio elettronico (+27,1%).» [pdf]

2020-06-05__Istat. 002

*

2020-06-05__Istat. 003

«Il Commento.

Ad aprile si osserva un’ulteriore diminuzione congiunturale delle vendite di beni non alimentari (-24,0%) dovuta alla chiusura di molte attività per l’intero mese a causa dell’emergenza sanitaria Covid-19. Su base annua le vendite del comparto alimentare crescono sia nella grande distribuzione (+6,9%), sia nelle imprese operanti su piccole superfici (+11,2%), mentre le vendite dei beni non alimentari diminuiscono in misura consistente (rispettivamente -62,2% e -51,5%). Nella grande distribuzione cresce il divario tra gli esercizi specializzati (-76,8%), maggiormente colpiti dalla chiusura imposta dalle misure di isolamento, e gli esercizi non specializzati (-1,5%), che sono rimasti per lo più aperti. Il commercio elettronico, unica forma di vendita in crescita, mostra un’accelerazione.»

2020-06-05__Istat. 004

* * * * * * *

Ci si ricordi come ad aprile il lockdown sia stato generalizzato in tutta Italia.

La piccola distribuzione e quella specializzata sono state duramente colpite.

*


Istat ha rilasciato il Report Commercio al dettaglio, relativo al mese di aprile.

Ad aprile 2020 si stima, per le vendite al dettaglio, una diminuzione rispetto a marzo del 10,5% in valore e dell’11,4% in volume. Come per lo scorso mese, a determinare il forte calo sono le vendite dei beni non alimentari, che diminuiscono del 24,0% in valore e del 24,5% in volume, mentre quelle dei beni alimentari aumentano in valore (+0,6%) e sono in diminuzione in volume (-0,4%).

Nel trimestre febbraio-aprile 2020, le vendite al dettaglio registrano un calo del 15,8% in valore e del 16,6% in volume rispetto al trimestre precedente. Diminuiscono le vendite dei beni non alimentari (-29,9% in valore e -30,1% in volume), mentre le vendite dei beni alimentari mostrano variazioni positive (rispettivamente +3,1% in valore e +2,4% in volume).

Su base tendenziale, ad aprile, si registra una diminuzione delle vendite del 26,3% in valore e del 28,1% in volume. Sono ancora le vendite dei beni non alimentari a calare sensibilmente (-52,2% in valore e -52,5% in volume), mentre crescono quelle dei beni alimentari (+6,1% in valore e +2,9% in volume).

Per quanto riguarda i beni non alimentari, si registrano variazioni tendenziali negative per tutti i gruppi di prodotti. Le diminuzioni maggiori riguardano calzature, articoli in cuoio e da viaggio (-90,6%), mobili, articoli tessili e arredamento (-83,6%), abbigliamento e pellicceria (-83,4%) e giochi, giocattoli, sport e campeggio (-82,5%), mentre il calo minore si registra per i prodotti farmaceutici (-3,5%).

Rispetto ad aprile 2019, il valore delle vendite al dettaglio diminuisce del 16,4% per la grande distribuzione e del 37,1% per le imprese operanti su piccole superfici. Le vendite al di fuori dei negozi calano del 45,2% mentre è in deciso aumento il commercio elettronico (+27,1%).

Nel corso della fase di rilevazione dei dati vi è stata una contenuta riduzione del tasso di risposta delle imprese, conseguente all’emergenza sanitaria in corso. Le azioni messe in atto per fare fronte a queste perturbazioni nella fase di raccolta dei dati (si veda Nota metodologica, pag. 9) hanno consentito di elaborare e diffondere gli indici relativi al mese di aprile 2020.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Commercio

Cambogia. Una economia sana coinvolta nel calo della domanda globale.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-06-05.

Cambogia 001

La Cambogia è uno dei tanti orzaioli purulenti delle moderne teorie economiche occidentali.

Dal 1995 al 2019 ha quintuplicato le entrate nette procapite e dal 1990 ha aumentato di ventisette volte il pil, passando dagli 899 milioni Usd del 1990 agli attuali 24,444 miliardi Usd.

Ed un successo economico di tale portata è stato ottenuto mantenendo il debito pubblico al 35%.

Questa è una ulteriore evidenza empirica di quanto inutile e dannoso sia l’intervento statale nel sistema economico, dogma apodittico delle teorie economiche occidentali. Il governo cambogiano ha lasciato lavorare in pace ed ha favorito la crescita dei posti di lavoro, senza lasciarsi andare a sentimentalismi inutili quanto dannosi.

* * * * * * *

La World Bank ha rilasciato il Report Cambodia in the time of Covid-19.

«Cambodia became a lower middle-income economy in 2015. It sustained an average annual growth rate of 7.6% from 1995-2019. Per capita income increased from $323 in 1995 to $1,623 in 2019»

«While growth was strong at 7.1% in 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic is severely affecting most economic activities in Cambodia.»

«The global epidemiological and economic crisis unleashed by COVID-19 poses the greatest threat to Cambodia’s development in its 30 years of modern history»

«The three most affected sectors—tourism, manufacturing exports, and construction—contributed more than 70 percent of growth and 39.4 percent of total paid employment in 2019. »

«Therefore, in the current year, Cambodia’s economy is likely to register its slowest growth since 1994»

«Poverty could increase between 3 and 11 percentage points from a 50 percent income loss that lasts for six months for households engaged in tourism, wholesale and retail trade, garment, construction, or manufacturing»

«public debt is expected rise to 35 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2022»

«In Cambodia, the first case of coronavirus was confirmed on January 27, 2020, and as of May 12, 2020, there are 122 cases.»

«the outbreak caused sharp decelerations in most of Cambodia’s main engines of growth in the first quarter of 2020, including weakened tourism (and hospitality) and construction activity and, more recently, the export sector»

«The lack of external demand has been amplified by the fact that Cambodia’s exports are significantly concentrated by both products and destinations. The key exported products include garments, footwear, travel goods, and rice»

«The combined U.S. and EU markets comprise about 52 percent of Cambodia’s total merchandise exports»

«The collapse of global trade has significant negative direct and indirect impacts on Cambodia»

* * * * * * *

Come per altre nazioni con economie sostanzialmente sane e ben gestite, anche la Cambogia risente del tracollo del commercio estero, per caduta della domanda globale..

In simile situazione, il governo cambogiano è del tutto impotente a contenere il fenomeno, che è appunto su scala globale.

Questa è una ulteriore lezione di quanto siano intimamente connesse la produzione e la domanda dei beni prodotti.

Questa crisi da Covid-19 è caratterizzata da un sostanziale impoverimento a livello globale, cui consegue la domanda stagnante.

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World Bank. Cambodia’s Economy in the Time of COVID-19.

Cambodia became a lower middle-income economy in 2015. It sustained an average annual growth rate of 7.6% from 1995-2019. Per capita income increased from $323 in 1995 to $1,623 in 2019. While growth was strong at 7.1% in 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic is severely affecting most economic activities in Cambodia.

*

«The global epidemiological and economic crisis unleashed by COVID-19 poses the greatest threat to Cambodia’s development in its 30 years of modern history. The three most affected sectors—tourism, manufacturing exports, and construction—contributed more than 70 percent of growth and 39.4 percent of total paid employment in 2019. Therefore, in the current year, Cambodia’s economy is likely to register its slowest growth since 1994, contracting between -1 percent (baseline) and -2.9 percent (downside).

Poverty could increase between 3 and 11 percentage points from a 50 percent income loss that lasts for six months for households engaged in tourism, wholesale and retail trade, garment, construction, or manufacturing. The fiscal deficit could reach its highest level in 22 years, and public debt is expected rise to 35 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2022. The authorities have introduced emergency measures to contain the outbreak and provide fiscal assistance to affected households, workers, and enterprises. To facilitate a robust recovery, the government will need to continue to ensure macroeconomic and financial sector stability and accelerate trade and investment reforms as well as encourage faster adoption of digital technologies.

An unprecedented shock

In Cambodia, the first case of coronavirus was confirmed on January 27, 2020, and as of May 12, 2020, there are 122 cases.1 The Cambodian authorities have taken swift action to detect and prevent local outbreaks by imposing a travel ban on visitors from severely infected countries, closing schools, urging citizens to avoid mass gatherings, and postponing mass celebrations of the Khmer New Year ceremony in mid-April, including an imposition of a lockdown during the three-day Khmer New Year celebration period (see box 1 for more details). In April 2020, a “State of Emergency” law was urgently adopted (and ready to be declared, if there are public health emergencies).

While Cambodia has so far avoided a health crisis, it has not been immune from the economic crisis sweeping the global economy.

The growth impact of COVID-19 hinges on the contagion, severity, and duration of the outbreak, the response of societies, and the magnitude and effectiveness of policy actions. The direct costs of preventive measures to contain a local outbreak currently appear manageable. However, the outbreak caused sharp decelerations in most of Cambodia’s main engines of growth in the first quarter of 2020, including weakened tourism (and hospitality) and construction activity and, more recently, the export sector.

The lack of external demand has been amplified by the fact that Cambodia’s exports are significantly concentrated by both products and destinations. The key exported products include garments, footwear, travel goods, and rice.

The combined U.S. and EU markets comprise about 52 percent of Cambodia’s total merchandise exports. In addition, exports rely on imports of intermediate goods (raw materials for Cambodia’s garment, footwear and travel goods industries) which earlier experienced supply chain disruptions. The collapse of global trade has significant negative direct and indirect impacts on Cambodia.»

Pubblicato in: Cina, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Cina. Maggio. Vendite automobili +11.7% anno su anno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-06-05.

Aeroporto di Pechino 001

«As the global auto industry is hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic, China has become a ray of hope for automakers including Volkswagen and General Motors.»

«In April, China’s auto sales hit 2.07 million units, up 4.4% from a year earlier, the first monthly sales growth in almost two years»

«China’s vehicle sales are estimated to rise 11.7% on year in May»

«vehicle sales were estimated to rise to 2.14 million in May»

* * * * * * *

Cina. Anche Volkswagen vi programma grandi investimenti.

Cina e Red Bull Gmbh. Un mercato impossibile da trascurare.

Commerci Mondiali. Marzo. -1.4% mese su mese. Bene Cina ed India.

Cina. Multinazionali aprono in continuazione stabilimenti. – Nestlé.

Cina mette dazi severi sull’orzo australiano. Relazioni deteriorate.

Cina. Aprile. Raffinerie. Export +10.2% MoM, +29.7% YoY.

Cina. La ripresa dipende da quella delle altre nazioni.

Cina. Aprile. Vendite al dettaglio risalite dal -20.5% di febbraio agli attuali -7.5%.

Cina. Aprile. Produzione Industriale Annualizzata +3.9%.

Cina. Innalzati i dazi sui tubi di acciaio EU ed USA.

Cina. Marzo. Import petrolifero. Arabia Saudita -1.6%, Russia +31%.

La Cina sta evidenziando una ripresa dal lockdown davvero notevole.

Ha incrementato le importazione di prodotti energetici petroliferi e di gas naturale ed ora constatiamo una netta ripresa del mercato delle vendite di autovetture, segno indiretto ma potente che la crisi pandemica non ha intaccato più di tanto le disponibilità delle famiglie ed i consumi interni.

La differenza con il blocco europeo inizia a farsi evidente.

*


China auto sales growth seen for second straight month, boosting recovery hopes.

China’s vehicle sales are estimated to rise 11.7% on year in May, its top auto industry body said on Tuesday, cementing hopes of a recovery in the world’s biggest auto market with the first back to back monthly sales increase in about two years.

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), in a post on its official WeChat account, said vehicle sales were estimated to rise to 2.14 million in May. It said the numbers were based on sales data it had collected from key companies, without giving further details.

CAAM expects January to May auto sales in China to fall 23.1% year on year to 7.9 million units.

As the global auto industry is hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic, China has become a ray of hope for automakers including Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE) and General Motors (GM.N).

In April, China’s auto sales hit 2.07 million units, up 4.4% from a year earlier, the first monthly sales growth in almost two years, CAAM data showed.

It cautioned last month that even if China contains the outbreak effectively, its auto sales are expected to drop 15% this year, from over 25 million vehicles in 2019. If the pandemic continues, the annual sales contraction will likely be by up to 25%.