Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

Usa. Sept21. Census Bureau. Classi di Reddito e povertà.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-11-29.

2021-11-24__ Usa Distribuzione Income 001

Il Report del Census Bureau è molto esteso, e ne riportiamo i titoli delle tabelle allegate per completezza espositiva. Queste Tabelle sono linkabili, ed ad esse si rimanda per approfondimenti.

Riportiamo in estratto la sola Tabella C-3, che ripartisce in quantili le classi di reddito netto dopo il prelievo fiscale.

Diverse le cose importanti da notare.

In primo luogo, i primi tre quantili, ossia i redditi inferiori, sono aumentati percentualmente nel 2020 rispetto al 2019, soprattutto nel primo quantile, passato da 3.8 a 4.2.

In secondo luogo, i primi tre quantili assommano al 29.6% della popolazione totale. Questa quota vive con un reddito netto dopo il prelievo fiscale inferiore al valore mediano.

In terzo luogo, quarto e quinto quantile sono lievemente flessi nel 2020 rispetto ai valori percentuali che avevano nel 2019.

* * * * * * *

Si noti che per una famiglia composta da due membri, la soglia di povertà è 16,733 dollari di redito netto dopo il prelievo fiscale. [Poverty Thresholds: 2020]

Il quadro che ne esce è quello di una America che stia bruciando ricchezza.

In ogni caso, l’aumento della popolazione con redditi inferiori al 29.6% de totale è un pessimo segno prognostico per gli Stati Uniti.

* * * * * * *


Lo United States Census Bureau ha rilasciato il Report Income and Poverty in the United States: 2020.

                         Income:

Table A-1. Income Summary Measures by Selected Characteristics: 2019 and 2020

Table A-2. Households by Total Money Income, Race, and Hispanic Origin of Householder: 1967 to 2020

Table D-1. Historical Median Income Using Alternative Price Indices: 1967 to 2020

Income Inequality:

Table A-3. Income Distribution Measures Using Money Income and Equivalence-Adjusted Income: 2019 and 2020

Table A-4a and A-4b. Selected Measures of Household Income Dispersion

Table A-5. Selected Measures of Equivalence-Adjusted Income Dispersion: 1967 to 2020

                         Earnings:

Table A-6. Earnings Summary Measures by Selected Characteristics: 2019 and 2020

Table A-7. Number and Real Median Earnings of Total Workers and Full-Time, Year-Round Workers by Sex and Female-to-Male Earnings Ratio: 1960 to 2020

                         Poverty:    

Poverty Thresholds: 2020

Table B-1. People in Poverty by Selected Characteristics: 2019 and 2020

Table B-2. Families and People in Poverty by Type of Family: 2019 and 2020 

Table B-3. People With Income Below Specified Ratios of Their Poverty Thresholds by Selected Characteristics: 2020 Table B-4. Poverty Status of People by Family Relationship, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1959 to 2020

Table B-5. Poverty Status of People by Age, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1959 to 2020

Table B-6. Poverty Status of Families by Type of Family: 1959 to 2020

Impact on Poverty of Alternative Resource Measures by Age: 1981 to 2020

Impact on Poverty of Alternative Resource Measures by Selected Characteristics: 2020  

Income Deficit or Surplus of Primary Families and Unrelated Individuals by Poverty Status: 2020

Percentage of People in Poverty by State Using 2- and 3-Year Averages: 2017-2018 and 2019-2020

Interrelationships of 3-Year Average State Poverty Rates: 2018 – 2020

                         Post-Tax Household Income:

Table C-1. Post-Tax Household Income Summary Measures by Selected Characteristics: 2019 and 2020

Table C-2. Summary Measures by Selected Characteristics Using Money Income and Post-Tax Income: 2020

Table C-3. Distribution Measures Using Post-Tax Income and Equivalence-Adjusted Post-Tax Income: 2019 and 2020

Table C-4. Distribution Measures Using Money Income, Post-Tax Income, Equivalence-Adjusted Income, and Equivalence-Adjusted Post-Tax Income: 2020

Pubblicato in: Agricoltura, Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime

Fertilizzanti. Si prospetta una carestia a livello mondiale. La fame proprio ci mancava.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-11-29.

2021-11-28__Fertilizzanti 002

«A global shortage of fertilisers is driving up food prices and leaving poorer countries facing crisis, says the boss of a major fertiliser firm»

«higher gas prices were pushing up fertiliser costs and affecting food prices worldwide»

«Fertiliser requires large amounts of gas in its production»

«Yara had been forced to cut some production due to higher gas prices, which had led to shortages»

«developing countries would be hit hardest by the shortages, with crop yields declining and food prices rising»

«It’s really scary, we are facing a food crisis and vulnerable people are being hit very hard»

«But for some people, especially in the developing world, this is not only a question about the wallet, but it’s a question of life or death»

«Less fertiliser, …. meant farmers in developing countries would not be able to plant as efficiently, leading to smaller crops»

«Farmers apply fertilizers to boost yields of crops such as corn, canola and wheat»

«reduced wind or rain for renewable power»

«This has led to a sharp rise in the cost of producing fertiliser, with the price of ammonia …. up 255% on last year»

* * * * * * *

La produzione mondiale dei fertilizzati ammonta a poco più di 199.9 milioni di tonnellate l’anno. Dieci anni or sono era 177.3 milioni di tonnellate.

L’aumento dell’ammoniaca del 255% in un anno mette a terra ogni sistema produttivo.

Pudicamente, nessuno osa dire che questa tipologia di prodotti è gravata da ogni sorta di accise e tasse, riscosse per finanziare i piani Green: i morti non mangiano, non consumano, non producono. Talora sono però utili durante il periodo elettorale.

* * * * * * *


Poorest face food crisis amid fertiliser shortage.

A global shortage of fertilisers is driving up food prices and leaving poorer countries facing crisis, says the boss of a major fertiliser firm.

Svein Tore Holsether, chief executive of Yara International, said higher gas prices were pushing up fertiliser costs and affecting food prices worldwide.

Fertiliser requires large amounts of gas in its production.

Mr Holsether said Yara had been forced to cut some production due to higher gas prices, which had led to shortages.

The chief executive said developing countries would be hit hardest by the shortages, with crop yields declining and food prices rising.

“It’s really scary, we are facing a food crisis and vulnerable people are being hit very hard,” he told the BBC’s Today programme.

“It’s impacting food prices all over the world and it hits the wallets of many people. But for some people, especially in the developing world, this is not only a question about the wallet, but it’s a question of life or death.”

Less fertiliser, Mr Holsether said, meant farmers in developing countries would not be able to plant as efficiently, leading to smaller crops.

Farmers apply fertilizers to boost yields of crops such as corn, canola and wheat. The process of creating ammonia, which is present in many fertilisers, currently relies on hydropower or natural gas.

                         ‘Volatile’

The increase in gas prices in recent months has been triggered by several factors which have increased demand, including the unlocking of economies during the pandemic and reduced wind or rain for renewable power.

This has led to a sharp rise in the cost of producing fertiliser, with the price of ammonia – the product Yara International produces more than anyone in the world – up 255% on last year.

Mr Holsether said the situation was “very volatile” and called for support and funding for the World Food Programme “to avoid famine at massive scale”.

He said that last year Yara donated 40,000 tonnes of fertiliser, which resulted in small-hold farms in East Africa tripling their crop yields.

“It says a lot about the impact that fertiliser can have,” he added.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Commercio, Devoluzione socialismo

UNCTAD. Inefficienza dei porti e della catena approvvigionamenti terranno alti i costi al consumo.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-11-25.

2021-11-25__ Unctad 001

La Conferenza delle Nazioni Unite sul Commercio e lo Sviluppo è il principale organo sussidiario permanente dell’Organizzazione delle Nazioni Unite operante nei settori del commercio, sviluppo, finanza, tecnologia, imprenditoria e sviluppo sostenibile.

* * * * * * *

Lo United Nations Conference on Trade and Development ha rilasciato il Report High freight rates cast a shadow over economic recovery.

«High freight rates cast a shadow over economic recovery»

«UNCTAD warns that global consumer prices will rise significantly in the year ahead until shipping supply chain disruptions are unblocked and port constraints and terminal inefficiencies are tackled»

«The recovery of the global economy is threatened by high freight rates, which are likely to continue in the coming months»

«the current surge in container freight rates, if sustained, could increase global import price levels by 11% and consumer price levels by 1.5% between now and 2023»

«The current surge in freight rates will have a profound impact on trade and undermine socioeconomic recovery, especially in developing countries, until maritime shipping operations return to normal»

«Demand for goods surged in the second half of 2020 and into 2021, as consumers spent their money on goods rather than services»

«This large swing in containerized trade flows was met with supply-side capacity constraints, including container ship carrying capacity, container shortages, labour shortages, continued on and off COVID-19 restrictions across port regions and congestion at ports»

«For example, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) spot rate on the Shanghai-Europe route was less than $1,000 per TEU in June 2020, jumped to about $4,000 per TEU by the end of 2020, and rose to $7,395 by the end of July 2021»

«still encountered difficulties to ensure their containers were moved promptly»

«The impact of the high freight charges will be greater in small island developing states (SIDS), which could see import prices increase by 24% and consumer prices by 7.5%. In least developed countries (LDCs), consumer price levels could increase by 2.2%»

«Low-value-added items produced in smaller economies, in particular, could face serious erosion of their comparative advantages»

«a surge in container freight rates will add to production costs, which can raise consumer prices and slow national economies, particularly in SIDS and LDCs, where consumption and production highly depend on trade»

«The high rates will also impact on low-value-added items such as furniture, textiles, clothing and leather products, whose production is often fragmented across low-wage economies well away from major consumer markets …. predicts consumer price increases of 10.2% on these»

«The analysis further predicts a 9.4% increase in rubber and plastic products, a 7.5% increase for pharmaceutical products and electrical equipment, 6.9% for motor vehicles and 6.4% for machinery and equipment»

«A 10% increase in container freight rates, together with supply chain disruptions, is expected to decrease industrial production in the United States and the euro area by more than 1%»

* * * * * * *

Il problema affrontato è molto complesso è si presterebbe a numerose considerazioni. Ne esporremo solo alcune, non necessariamente e più importanti.

In primo luogo, tutto il mondo è entrato in una fase di stagflazione. Languono le produzioni e l’inflazione erode il potere di acquisto. Sussistono vistose discrepanze locoregionali. Questa situazione ostacola grandemente anche i paesi che di per sé stessi non avrebbero avuto grossolani problemi. Inoltre, l’inflazione è fortemente contagiosa.

In secondo luogo, oscillazioni così veloci e di ampio valore ostacolano severamente le possibilità di pianificare produzione e commercializzazione. Tutti i pregressi canoni hanno perso valore. Diventa un vivere alla giornata, fatto questo incompatibile con un sano sistema economico.

In terzo luogo, le materie prime hanno evidenziato considerevoli incrementi dei prezzi, mettendo fuori mercato un gran numero di sistemi produttivi. La crisi dei trasporti amplifica i costi ed ostacola il timing dei rifornimenti.

In quarto luogo, i governi nazionali sembrerebbero essere del tutto impotenti a comprendere e governare queste situazioni.

In quinto luogo, le continue tensioni politiche e militari non concorrono sicuramente a rasserenare gli animi. Chiamando le cose con il loro nome, il rischio di un conflitto atomico è reale.

* * * * * * *

In estrema sintesi, nessuno si illuda. Questa situazione continuerà peggiorando fino al collasso. Il problema è sicuramente economico, ma principalmente è politico

* * * * * * *


High freight rates cast a shadow over economic recovery

UNCTAD warns that global consumer prices will rise significantly in the year ahead until shipping supply chain disruptions are unblocked and port constraints and terminal inefficiencies are tackled.

* * *

Geneva, Switzerland, 18 November 2021

The recovery of the global economy is threatened by high freight rates, which are likely to continue in the coming months, according to UNCTAD’s Review of Maritime Transport 2021 published on 18 November.

UNCTAD’s analysis shows that the current surge in container freight rates, if sustained, could increase global import price levels by 11% and consumer price levels by 1.5% between now and 2023.

“The current surge in freight rates will have a profound impact on trade and undermine socioeconomic recovery, especially in developing countries, until maritime shipping operations return to normal,” said UNCTAD Secretary General Rebeca Grynspan.

“Returning to normal would entail investing in new solutions, including infrastructure, freight technology and digitalization, and trade facilitation measures,” she said.

                         What triggered the spike in freight rates and costs

Demand for goods surged in the second half of 2020 and into 2021, as consumers spent their money on goods rather than services during pandemic lockdowns and restrictions, according to the report. Working from home, online shopping and increased computers sales all placed unprecedented demand on supply chains.

This large swing in containerized trade flows was met with supply-side capacity constraints, including container ship carrying capacity, container shortages, labour shortages, continued on and off COVID-19 restrictions across port regions and congestion at ports.

This mismatch between surging demand and de facto reduced supply capacity then led to record container freight rates on practically all container trade routes.

For example, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) spot rate on the Shanghai-Europe route was less than $1,000 per TEU in June 2020, jumped to about $4,000 per TEU by the end of 2020, and rose to $7,395 by the end of July 2021. On top of this, cargo owners faced delays, surcharges and other costs, and still encountered difficulties to ensure their containers were moved promptly.

                         Everyone is affected, but not equally

The impact of the high freight charges will be greater in small island developing states (SIDS), which could see import prices increase by 24% and consumer prices by 7.5%. In least developed countries (LDCs), consumer price levels could increase by 2.2%.

Supply chains will be affected by higher maritime trade costs. Low-value-added items produced in smaller economies, in particular, could face serious erosion of their comparative advantages.

In addition, concerns abound that the sustained higher shipping costs will not only weigh on exports and imports but could also undermine a recovery in global manufacturing.

The report says sustained high rates are already affecting global supply chains, noting that Europe, for example, has been facing shortages of consumer goods imported from Asia such as home furnishings, bicycles, sports goods and toys.

According to the report, a surge in container freight rates will add to production costs, which can raise consumer prices and slow national economies, particularly in SIDS and LDCs, where consumption and production highly depend on trade.

The high rates will also impact on low-value-added items such as furniture, textiles, clothing and leather products, whose production is often fragmented across low-wage economies well away from major consumer markets; the UNCTAD predicts consumer price increases of 10.2% on these.

The analysis further predicts a 9.4% increase in rubber and plastic products, a 7.5% increase for pharmaceutical products and electrical equipment, 6.9% for motor vehicles and 6.4% for machinery and equipment.

The impact of the high freight rates will not be evenly spread, even within Europe, and will be generally greater in smaller economies.

It is suggested that prices would rise by 3.7% in Estonia and 3.9% in Lithuania, compared with 1.2% in the United States and 1.4% in China. This differential also reflects a greater “import openness”, the ratio of imports to GDP, which is typically higher in smaller economies.

Manufacturers in the United States rely mainly on industrial supplies from China and other East Asian economies, so continued cost pressures, disruption and delays in containerized shipping will hinder production, according to the report.

A 10% increase in container freight rates, together with supply chain disruptions, is expected to decrease industrial production in the United States and the euro area by more than 1%, while in China production is expected to decrease by 0.2%.

UNCTAD emphasizes that transport costs are also influenced by structural factors, including port infrastructure quality, the trade facilitation environment and shipping connectivity, and there is potential for significant improvements.

UNCTAD urges countries to consider a portfolio of measures that span hard and soft infrastructure and services. Improving the quality of port infrastructure would reduce world average maritime transport costs by 4.1%, while costs would be reduced by 3.7% by better trade facilitation measures and by 4.4% by improved liner shipping connectivity.

It calls on governments to monitor markets to ensure a fair, transparent and competitive commercial environment and recommends more data sharing and stronger collaboration between stakeholders in the maritime supply chain.

The report urges continued monitoring and analysis of trends to find ways of cutting costs, enhancing efficiency and smoothing delivery of maritime trade. It also emphasizes the need for smaller economies to diversify by graduating to higher-value-added products to be more resilient to external shocks.

In the medium to longer term, the maritime supply capacity will also be affected by the transition of the industry towards zero-carbon shipping. To ensure that the necessary investment in ships, ports and the provision of new fuels is not delayed, it will be important for investors to count on a predictable global regulatory framework.

* * *

Surging shipping costs will drive up prices for some consumer products by 10%, new UN report finds.

– The rate for a single shipping container has skyrocketed over the last 18 months as the coronavirus pandemic disrupted supply chains and trade channels.

– That surge in container rates could send consumer prices 1.5% higher over the next year, according to a report from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

– The impact on consumer prices will vary by country and product, the report said.

* * *

Beijing — The global surge in container shipping rates could send consumer prices 1.5% higher over the next year, according to a report from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

The rate for a single shipping container has skyrocketed over the last 18 months as the coronavirus pandemic disrupted supply chains and trade channels. Routes have seen costs rise by seven times, if not more.

“UNCTAD’s analysis shows that the current surge in container freight rates, if sustained, could increase global import price levels by 11% and consumer price levels by 1.5% between now and 2023,” the UN report said Thursday.

By country, the U.S. would see consumer prices rise by 1.2%, while China would see a 1.4% increase, the report said. The analysis found that smaller countries more dependent on imports would see consumer prices rise by a much higher 7.5%.

By product, electronics, furniture, and apparel would see the greatest price increases — of at least 10% globally — due to supply chain distribution, UNCTAD said, noting containers account for 17% of total seaborne trade volume.

Some companies have chosen to send smaller products by air as a result of the soaring cargo shipping costs, although air freight tends to be more expensive.

The container shipping cost surge would also drag down growth in major economies, the analysis said.

Industrial production, a major driver of growth, is set to fall by more than 1% in the U.S. and euro area, and drop by 0.2% in China, if container freight rates rise 10% and supply chains remain disrupted, the report said.

As of late October, more than 600 container ships were stuck outside ports worldwide, twice the level at the start of the year, Swiss logistics giant Kuehne+Nagel told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.” The company projected late last month that the congestion would last until at least February.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime, Unione Europea

Europa. In arrivo inverno rigido. Energetici rincarati. Buio, gelo, fame, inflazione.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-11-28.

2021-11-26__ Meteo 001

«Short-term power prices surged in Europe, hitting the second-highest level on record in Germany, as arctic air moved in bringing snow and sub-zero temperatures across the central-west region»

«Day-ahead power prices jumped in Germany, France and the Netherlands with temperatures falling as low as -6 degrees Celsius (21 degrees Fahrenheit) in eastern France»

«Snow is expected in the south and northeast of Germany»

«Colder weather is lifting demand just as the forecast for wind-power generation is set to plunge in France, Germany and the Netherlands»

«The cold snap is the first test of how energy systems already under strain will cope with higher consumption this winter»

«The forecast through early December shows colder-than-normal temperatures across western Europe»

«Wind generation and temperatures below the seasonal norm are increasing gas-for-power and heating demand; this provides bullish pressure to day-ahead contract»

* * * * * * *

– In sintesi.

«wind-power generation is set to plunge in France, Germany and the Netherlands»

«Wind generation and temperatures below the seasonal norm are increasing gas-for-power and heating demand»

* * * * * * *

Benissimo!

Buio, gelo, fame ed inflazione al 18.3% schiariscono le idee anche delle menti più coriacee.

* * * * * * *


Power Prices Surge as Arctic Blast Brings Snow to Europe. – Bloomberg.

Bloomberg — Short-term power prices surged in Europe, hitting the second-highest level on record in Germany, as arctic air moved in bringing snow and sub-zero temperatures across the central-west region.

Day-ahead power prices jumped in Germany, France and the Netherlands with temperatures falling as low as -6 degrees Celsius (21 degrees Fahrenheit) in eastern France, according to state forecaster Meteo France. Snow is expected in the south and northeast of Germany, DWD said on twitter.

Colder weather is lifting demand just as the forecast for wind-power generation is set to plunge in France, Germany and the Netherlands. The cold snap is the first test of how energy systems already under strain will cope with higher consumption this winter. Restricted supplies of natural gas and low storage levels have led to a rally in prices that has caused chaos in energy markets across Europe.

The forecast through early December shows colder-than-normal temperatures across western Europe, according to Maxar Technologies LLC. Any mild air is focused in southeast Europe. The heating degree day outlook for the whole continent through December 7 is 215.3, above the 10-year normal of 190, according to a Maxar report.

“Wind generation and temperatures below the seasonal norm are increasing gas-for-power and heating demand; this provides bullish pressure to day-ahead contract,” Inspired Energy said in a report.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

USA. Richieste sussidi. Iniziali 199mila, continui 2,049mila.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-11-27.

2021-11-25__ USA Disoccupazione 001

Lo United States Department of Labor ha rilasciato il Report Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report.

La pubblicazione è avvenuta con un giorno di anticipo a causa del Thanksgiving holiday.

A nostro sommesso parere, queste variazioni sono statisticamente non significative, tenendo presente che in America vivono 332 milioni di persone.

In ogni caso, anche una testata dichiaratamente liberal come quella riportata, avanza seri dubbi.

«The number of people already collecting state jobless benefits, meanwhile, fell by 60,000 to 2.05 million»

«They don’t think the low level will last»

«[He] thinks claims will rebound to about 260,000»

* * * * * * *


U.S. weekly jobless claims plunge to lowest level since 1969.

Jobless claims fall 71,000 to 199,000.

The numbers: New filings for jobless benefit plunged by 71,000 to 199,000 in the seven days ended Nov. 20, the U.S. government said Wednesday. The report was released one day early because of the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.

This is the lowest level of initial claims since November 1969.

Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had estimated initial jobless claims would total a seasonally adjusted 260,000.

Unemployment filings have been steadily moving toward pre-crisis lows, when they were in the low 200,000s. They totaled as much as 900,000 a week at the start of the year.

The number of people already collecting state jobless benefits, meanwhile, fell by 60,000 to 2.05 million. These so-called continuing claims are also at a pandemic low.

Big picture: A few economists were expecting a big drop in claims based on seasonal adjustment factors related to the Thanksgiving holiday. They don’t think the low level will last. Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, thinks claims will rebound to about 260,000.

What are they saying:  The level has moved below the 218,000 average seen in 2019, a “solidly positive” signal about the labor market, said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime

Germania. Oct21. Import Prices +21.7% anno su anno. Natural Gas +193.9%. Germania kaputt.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-11-27.

2021-11-27__ Germania prezzi import 001

                         In sintesi.

– Import prices +21.7% on the same month a year earlier

– Export princes +9.5% on the same month a year earlier

– In October 2021 energy imports were 141.0% more expensive than in October 2020

– natural gas with a plus of 193.9%

– crude oil with a plus of 105.9%

* * * * * * *

Vedremo come il nuovo governo tedesco vorrà affrontare la situazione.

Sicuramente un rincaro del 193.9% del natural gas in un anno costituisce un esborso intollerabile da parte del sistema economico tedesco.

E l’inverno si preannuncerebbe essere rigido: buio, gelo e fame  sono ben grame compagnie.

* * * * * * *


Destatis. Import prices in October 2021: +21.7% on October 2020

                         Pressrelease #536 from 26 November 2021

                         Import prices, October 2021

+3.8% on the previous month

+21.7% on the same month a year earlier

                         Export prices, October 2021

+1.4% on the previous month

+9.5% on the same month a year earlier

*  * *

Wiesbaden – As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the index of import prices increased by 21.7% in October 2021 compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. This has been the highest year-on-year change since January 1980 (+21.8%, on January 1979). In September 2021 and in August 2021 the annual rates of change were +17.7% and +16.5%, respectively. From September 2021 to October 2021 the index rose by 3.8%.

                         High price increase mainly caused by energy price development

In October 2021 energy imports were 141.0% more expensive than in October 2020. The largest influence on the year-on-year rate of energy price increase had natural gas with a plus of 193.9% as well as crude oil with a plus of 105.9%.

The index of import prices, excluding crude oil and mineral oil products, increased by 17.5% in October 2021 compared with October 2020 and in comparison with September 2021 it rose by 3.0%.

The index of export prices increased by 9.5% in October 2021 compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. This has been the highest year-on-year-change since January 1975 (+10.5% on January 1974). In September 2021 and in August 2021 the annual rates of change were +8.1% and +7.2%, respectively. From September 2021 to October 2021 the index rose by 1.4%.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Finanza e Sistema Bancario

Borse Europee. Le concause del crollo di venerdì. Quelle vere non si dicono.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-11-27.

2021-11-27__ Borse Europee 001

Tutti i media liberal riportano concordi la stessa velina che individua la causa del crollo borsistico nella presenza di quel grazioso esserino che ha preso domicilio nel continente.

* * * * * * *

Tuttavia codesta interpretazione sembrerebbe essere anche molto criticabile.

Il blocco europeo ha macrodati da incubo.

Germania. Oct21. Import Prices +21.7% anno su anno. Natural Gas +193.9%.

Spagna. Oct21. PPI, Indice dei prezzi di Produzione, +31.9% anno su anno.

Italia. PPI, Indice dei Prezzi di Produzione, +13.3% anno su anno.

Svezia. PPI, Indice dei Prezzi di Produzione, +16.8% anno su anno.

Regno Unito. PPI, Indice dei Prezzi di Produzione, +13.0% anno su anno.

Finlandia. PPI, Indice dei Prezzi di Produzione, +13.0% anno su anno.

Latvia. PPI, Indice dei Prezzi di Produzione, +22.4% anno su anno.

* * * * * * *

Weimar si sta avvicinando a gradi passi, sempre poi che non sia già qui. E la gente rattamente realizza e fugge via.

Natural Gas +193.9% anno su anno: chi mai non fuggirebbe?

 

Pubblicato in: Putin, Russia

Putin. Una scacchiera strategica per destabilizzare l’occidente.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-11-26.

Putin Vladimir 012

“President Putin has come to the conclusion that normal diplomatic channels, means, forms and methods are not working,”

«you only understand the language of force»

* * * * * * *


«In the stretch of Europe from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, where Moscow and the West have competed for influence for decades, the threat of a new military conflict is growing»

«An ominous buildup of Russian troops near Ukraine. A migration crisis in Belarus that Western leaders call a “hybrid war” by a Kremlin client state. Escalating fears over natural gas that have Europe dreading a cold winter»

«President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has, increasingly, put his cards on the table: He is willing to take ever-greater risks to force the West to listen to Russian demands»

«Mr. Putin is playing a role in multiple destabilizing crises at once»

«In the stretch of Europe from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, where Moscow and the West have competed for influence for decades, the threat of a new military conflict is growing»

«He said that Western countries were finally recognizing that Russia was serious about defending its “red lines” that relate to the presence of NATO forces near its borders»

«Our recent warnings have indeed been heard and are having a certain effect»

«Tensions have been exacerbated by the migration crisis orchestrated on the European Union’s borders by Belarus, a close Russian ally, and by an energy crunch that Russia, which supplies much of Western Europe’s natural gas, has used to try to pressure the bloc to approve a new pipeline that would increase the Kremlin’s leverage in the region»

«Belarusian security officers carrying Kalashnikov rifles kept guard around a huge warehouse housing around 2,000 migrants»

«In Moscow, Mr. Putin appears to feel increasingly confident»

«He maintains an approval rating above 60 percent in independent polls»

«Mr. Putin also commands a military developing ever-more-modern weaponry, such as sophisticated hypersonic missiles and nuclear-capable torpedoes»

«But it is Ukraine that is primarily responsible for Russia’s current “red lines.”»

«Kremlin increasingly views Ukraine as a Western aircraft carrier parked at Russia’s southwestern border»

«In the Russian president’s evolving view of the West, he went on, you only understand the language of force»

«I welcome signs of readiness on the other side not just to produce and promote its own points and views…. but also to listen to what we are telling them»

«What does Mr. Putin want? …. To restore the Soviet Union»

«President Putin has come to the conclusion that normal diplomatic channels, means, forms and methods are not working»

* * * * * * *

Mr Putin è davvero molto abile a saper giocare in modo coordinato su molti differenti scacchieri, così da destabilizzare l’occidente liberal.

Purtroppo la sua controparte attuale è Joe Biden, persona del tutto inaffidabile.

Capito questo semplice concetto, risulterebbe essere facile comprenderne ciò che ne deriva.

«you only understand the language of force»

* * * * * * *


On Putin’s Strategic Chessboard, a Series of Destabilizing Moves.

In the stretch of Europe from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, where Moscow and the West have competed for influence for decades, the threat of a new military conflict is growing.

* * *

Vilnius, Lithuania — An ominous buildup of Russian troops near Ukraine. A migration crisis in Belarus that Western leaders call a “hybrid war” by a Kremlin client state. Escalating fears over natural gas that have Europe dreading a cold winter.

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has, increasingly, put his cards on the table: He is willing to take ever-greater risks to force the West to listen to Russian demands. And America and its allies are sensing an unusually volatile moment, one in which Mr. Putin is playing a role in multiple destabilizing crises at once.

In the stretch of Europe from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, where Moscow and the West have competed for influence for decades, the threat of a new military conflict is growing.

This month, Russian long-range nuclear bombers flew repeated patrols near the European Union’s border with Poland, and an unexplained and stealthy military buildup in southwestern Russia has American and European intelligence officials warning that the Kremlin could be laying the groundwork for a new invasion of Ukraine.

During a speech Thursday to Russian diplomats, Mr. Putin signaled more openly than before that he was using his military to coerce the West to respect Russia’s interests in the region. He said that Western countries were finally recognizing that Russia was serious about defending its “red lines” that relate to the presence of NATO forces near its borders.

“Our recent warnings have indeed been heard and are having a certain effect: tensions have risen there, after all,” Mr. Putin said. “It is important for them to remain in this state for as long as possible, so that it does not occur to them to stage some kind of conflict on our western frontiers that we do not need.”

Tensions have been exacerbated by the migration crisis orchestrated on the European Union’s borders by Belarus, a close Russian ally, and by an energy crunch that Russia, which supplies much of Western Europe’s natural gas, has used to try to pressure the bloc to approve a new pipeline that would increase the Kremlin’s leverage in the region.

“It’s a regional security situation which is very worrying at the moment,” said Asta Skaisgiryte, the foreign policy adviser to the president of Lithuania, an E.U. and NATO member that has faced a wave of migration from neighboring Belarus in recent months.

In Belarus on Friday, tensions that earlier this week triggered violent clashes at the main border crossing into Poland continued to ease. Belarusian security officers carrying Kalashnikov rifles kept guard around a huge warehouse housing around 2,000 migrants.

Many of the migrants voiced alarm and frustration that, instead of advancing into Poland, they had now moved backward, suggesting that President Aleksandr G. Lukashenko of Belarus could have trouble keeping anger from boiling over if migrants lose all hope of reaching Europe.

In Moscow, Mr. Putin appears to feel increasingly confident. He repelled this year’s challenge to his rule from the imprisoned opposition leader Aleksei A. Navalny, while other opposition figures continue to be arrested or forced into exile. He maintains an approval rating above 60 percent in independent polls, despite Russia suffering one of the worst Covid-19 death tolls in the world. His United Russia party claimed a sizable victory in September’s parliamentary elections, prompting few protests despite evidence of fraud.

Mr. Putin also commands a military developing ever-more-modern weaponry, such as sophisticated hypersonic missiles and nuclear-capable torpedoes. And Russia is building a tighter partnership with China, underscored on Friday when the two countries conducted a joint strategic bomber patrol over the Pacific.

At the same time, Russian analysts say, the Kremlin is growing increasingly concerned about the possibility that the West will further expand its military footprint in post-Soviet Eastern Europe. Lithuania and the other two Baltic states that were once part of the Soviet Union, Latvia and Estonia, are already NATO members hosting Western troops. In Belarus, Russia’s closest ally, the West has given full-throated support to the exiled opposition to Mr. Lukashenko.

But it is Ukraine that is primarily responsible for Russia’s current “red lines.” The Kremlin said in September that the “broadening of NATO infrastructure on Ukrainian territory” — where the West already provides training and weaponry to Ukrainian forces — would cross one of those lines. And in recent weeks, military activity by the United States and its allies in the Black Sea region near Ukraine, where President Volodymyr Zelensky has struck an increasingly anti-Russian tone, has infuriated Russian officials.

Dmitri Trenin, the head of the Carnegie Moscow Center think tank, said that to Russia, the current moment could well seem like a role reversal of the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, when President John F. Kennedy was prepared to risk nuclear war to prevent the Soviet Union from basing missiles off the Florida coast. Scholars at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington wrote this month that the “Kremlin increasingly views Ukraine as a Western aircraft carrier” parked at Russia’s southwestern border.

“He believes that it’s time to shift gears in our foreign policy,” Mr. Trenin said of Mr. Putin’s new approach. In the Russian president’s evolving view of the West, he went on, “you only understand the language of force.”

Amid the tensions, Russia is pursuing talks with Washington on a range of issues as a prelude to a second summit meeting between Mr. Putin and President Biden — a sign that the Kremlin hopes to extract assurances that its influence in Eastern Europe will be respected. On Thursday, without offering further details, Mr. Putin said Russia would push for “serious long-term guarantees that ensure Russia’s security” in the region.

Mr. Biden has said he is seeking a “stable and predictable” relationship with Russia, while pledging to continue to push back against Russian actions that go against democratic values or American interests. In an interview with The New York Times last week, a Russian deputy foreign minister, Sergey A. Ryabkov, welcomed Mr. Biden’s engagement, while making it clear that Russia would expect concessions.

To Russia, Mr. Ryabkov said, stability and predictability meant “less American meddling in our domestic affairs, with less attempts by the U.S. to limit our completely legal and legitimate interaction with our friends, allies and partners all over the globe.”

Russia has hosted a series of American officials for talks in Moscow in recent months, including William Burns, the head of the C.I.A., and, this week, the American envoy for Afghan policy, Thomas West. On Wednesday, Jake Sullivan, Mr. Biden’s national security adviser, spoke by phone with Nikolai Patrushev, the secretary of Mr. Putin’s Security Council; Mr. Patrushev’s office said the call concerned “upcoming contacts” between the presidents and “improving the atmosphere of Russian-American relations.”

“I welcome signs of readiness on the other side not just to produce and promote its own points and views,” Mr. Ryabkov, the deputy foreign minister, said, “but also to listen to what we are telling them.”

Before he sat down with Mr. Putin in Geneva in June, Mr. Biden met with leaders of the Baltic countries to assure them that the United States would continue to honor its defense commitments under the NATO alliance. The administration, people familiar with its thinking said, believes more direct talks — including possibly a conversation between Mr. Biden and Mr. Putin — will be necessary to further understand Moscow’s intentions, rather than simply relying on old-school Kremlinology.

But Ms. Skaisgiryte, the Lithuanian foreign-policy official, said the United States needed to be careful in engaging with Russia even as Mr. Putin claims, as he did on Thursday, that Russia is a “peace-loving” state.

“We have to not be naïve,” Ms. Skaisgiryte said. “We have to be very vigilant about what he does on the ground, and not to put ourselves into the trap of Putin’s rhetoric.”

What does Mr. Putin want? Ms. Skaisgiryte’s answer is simple: “To restore the Soviet Union.”

Mr. Trenin, the Carnegie analyst, said Mr. Putin had little interest in full-fledged invasions and occupations of other countries, given that the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s helped precipitate the collapse of the Soviet Union. But he said securing an international commitment to Ukraine as a neutral state, with its more pro-Russian east being given some autonomy, was a critical priority for the Kremlin.

“President Putin has come to the conclusion that normal diplomatic channels, means, forms and methods are not working,” Mr. Trenin said. “The situation is, potentially, a rather bad one.”

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime, Stati Uniti

Usa. Joe Biden rilascia 50 milioni barili dalle riserve strategiche. Benzina a 6 Usd a gallone.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-11-26.

2021-11-25__ US Gasoline 001

«President Joe Biden has ordered the release of 50 million barrels of oil from America’s strategic reserve»

* * * * * * *

«When President Joe Biden ordered the release of 50 million barrels of oil from America’s strategic reserve to help reduce energy costs, he was taking aim at a growing burden for millions of Americans embarking on Thanksgiving travel»

«The step announced Tuesday, done in a rare coordination with several other nations, is among the few things a presidential administration can do to try to lessen the squeeze — and the political threat — of rising inflation»

«→→ The likelihood of providing meaningful relief in the near future, however, is probably low ←←»

* * *

«America’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve holds about 605 million barrels of oil in underground salt caverns in Texas and Louisiana»

«Now the U.S exports more oil than it imports»

«There’s a limit to how much can be released at once. In the past the government has released about 1 million barrels per day. At that rate, the promised influx of 50 million barrels of crude could last about two months»

«The idea is that by putting more oil on the market, prices will fall. That hasn’t happened yet»

«The OPEC oil cartel and its allies will be meeting in about a week to decide whether to increase production or to hold back, a strategy the group often employs to boost prices»

«The coalition Biden assembled — bringing together India, China, Japan, South Korea and the U.K. to tap their strategic oil reserves — is unprecedented»

«Altogether, the group could be adding 70 million to 80 million barrels of oil onto the market»

«OPEC and its allies have oil reserves that can last for decades»

«What many consumers want to know is what’s going to happen to gasoline prices at the pump»

«Really, what we’re talking about are the most price-sensitive consumers in the economy, ….  They may not show up in GDP numbers or recessions, but they show up in vote counts as marginal voters, who may or may not respond in the next election cycle, and I think if we get down to it that’s really what this is about»

«The oil and gas industry employs more than 10 million people in the U.S. and contributes about 8% of the nation’s gross domestic product»

«Companies that supply oil benefit from higher prices. But consumers don’t like it when those higher prices trickle down to the pump»

«It’s the tension between aspirations to decarbonize and the practical concern to have low gasoline prices»

* * * * * * *

Usa. Midterm. Nei sondaggi i Repubblicani superano i Democratici per 13 punti.

Usa. Il 58% degli Elettori ritiene che i media siano ‘nemici del popolo’.

California. Benzina. Prezzo alla pompa 4.682 dollari per gallone.

Usa. Midterm. Biden potrebbe perdere sia Congresso sia Senato. – Abc Poll.

Il costo della benzina alla pompa sfiora adesso i sei dollari al gallone. Ben lontani i tempi nei quali costava cinquanta centesimi. Più passa il tempo e maggiore è la sorda rabbia del Contribuente americano.

* * *


EXPLAINER: What is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve?

President Joe Biden has ordered the release of 50 million barrels of oil from America’s strategic reserve.

* * *

New York — When President Joe Biden ordered the release of 50 million barrels of oil from America’s strategic reserve to help reduce energy costs, he was taking aim at a growing burden for millions of Americans embarking on Thanksgiving travel.

The step announced Tuesday, done in a rare coordination with several other nations, is among the few things a presidential administration can do to try to lessen the squeeze — and the political threat — of rising inflation. The likelihood of providing meaningful relief in the near future, however, is probably low. Still, any help in easing fuel prices, even modestly, would be welcomed by many Americans.

Here is a look at what’s involved:

———

                         JUST WHAT IS THE PETROLEUM RESERVE?

America’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve holds about 605 million barrels of oil in underground salt caverns in Texas and Louisiana. It was created following the 1970s Arab oil embargo to store oil that could be tapped in an emergency. But the dynamics of the global oil industry changed dramatically in recent years: Now the U.S exports more oil than it imports.

There’s a limit to how much can be released at once. In the past the government has released about 1 million barrels per day. At that rate, the promised influx of 50 million barrels of crude could last about two months.

———

                         WHY DID BIDEN TAP THE RESERVE?

The idea is that by putting more oil on the market, prices will fall. That hasn’t happened yet. But depending on what happens in the rest of the world, there’s still a chance it could work.

Oil prices rose slightly after the announcement. Traders were anticipating the news, and may have been underwhelmed by the details, said Claudio Galimberti, senior vice president for oil markets at Rystad Energy.

“The immediate price reaction is not the final judgment on the effectiveness of this effort,” said Jim Burkhard, vice president at IHS Markit. “It will really be in the months ahead.”

Whether the move is effective depends on several factors.

———

                         WHAT ABOUT OPEC?

The OPEC oil cartel and its allies will be meeting in about a week to decide whether to increase production or to hold back, a strategy the group often employs to boost prices. Earlier this month, Biden had hoped OPEC nations, led by Saudi Arabia, would agree to significantly boost production. But they only made modest increases.

If OPEC decides next week that it wants higher prices, its members could take oil off the market. “Just overnight, they could just offset it,” Burkhard said. “So that’s a big question mark, is how they react to this.”

The coalition Biden assembled — bringing together India, China, Japan, South Korea and the U.K. to tap their strategic oil reserves — is unprecedented, Galimberti said. Altogether, the group could be adding 70 million to 80 million barrels of oil onto the market, he estimates.

“It’s kind of a coalition of oil importers,” he added. “But can they really supplant, or can they really represent a rival to OPEC-plus? The answer is absolutely not.” That’s because the group of importers are using their strategic petroleum reserves, which are limited. On the other hand, OPEC and its allies have oil reserves that can last for decades. “So there is no comparison between the two,” Galimberti said.

———

                         WILL GASOLINE GET CHEAPER?

What many consumers want to know is what’s going to happen to gasoline prices at the pump. Many factors go into the price of gasoline. Refineries buy crude oil in advance, so they’re still working with more expensive oil, and states have differing tax rates that impact the price. Nevertheless, if OPEC doesn’t respond by curtailing production, the influx of oil could lead to a gasoline price decrease of 10 cents to 15 cents per gallon, said Kevin Book, managing director at Clearview Energy Partners. Even if the price drop doesn’t happen, Biden can make the case that he tried.

“Really, what we’re talking about are the most price-sensitive consumers in the economy,” Book said. “They may not show up in GDP numbers or recessions, but they show up in vote counts as marginal voters, who may or may not respond in the next election cycle, and I think if we get down to it that’s really what this is about.”

———

                         WHY DOES OIL MATTER?

The future of oil and gas in the U.S. is a political flashpoint and source of tension, especially as companies and government agencies grapple with climate change and the transition to cleaner sources of energy.

On the one hand, the U.S. oil and gas industry has been praised by some political leaders for creating energy independence. Where the U.S. once relied heavily on imports, other nations now rely on the U.S. for oil. It’s also a job supplier: The oil and gas industry employs more than 10 million people in the U.S. and contributes about 8% of the nation’s gross domestic product, according to the American Petroleum Institute. Any impact resulting from Biden’s release of oil from the strategic reserves “is likely to be short-lived unless it is paired with policy measures that encourage the production of American energy resources,” the API said in a statement.

Companies that supply oil benefit from higher prices. But consumers don’t like it when those higher prices trickle down to the pump.

“The broader drama is this new variable in the oil market: It’s the tension between aspirations to decarbonize and the practical concern to have low gasoline prices,” Burkhard said. “And there there’s a conflict between those two forces. And that’s why we’re going to continue to see dislocations between demand and supply.”

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Finanza e Sistema Bancario

Inflazione. Sta strozzando l’export in dollari dei paesi emergenti. Weimar è lì, in paziente attesa.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-11-25.

Cigno Nero con Pulcino 001

«Inflation is killing the dollar carry trade in emerging markets»

«The outlook for carry looks better for currencies in the Americas, and in the Europe, Middle East and Africa region than it does for Asia»

«A short-lived reprieve for emerging-market carry trades funded in dollars looks to be over, with an upsurge in US inflation making the outlook increasingly treacherous»

«A Bloomberg index of these bets has dropped more than 4% in the past two months, the biggest slide since March 2020 for a strategy of borrowing in the greenback and investing in developing-nation currencies»

«The quickest US inflation in three decades is putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten, raising the prospect of higher costs for dollar borrowers, and less extra yield — or carry»

«Many of these bets are now coming undone due to the growing concern about inflation, and about whether central banks will have to play catch up with aggressive hikes»

«→→ Sharply higher-than-expected inflation readings in the US and China will play havoc with the narrative that inflation pressures are transitory ←←»

«A tightening in global liquidity conditions due to the Fed tapering its asset purchases may also raise some obstacles for emerging-market carry»

«There’s at least some prospect emerging-market central banks will raise interest rates fast enough to ensure a sufficient yield premium to improve carry returns»

«Interest rates are rising more rapidly across Latin America and EMEA»

* * * * * * *

Il problema sarebbe anche molto semplice.

Quasi tutti gli stati del mondo, ma soprattutto quelli occidentali, hanno accumulato debiti immani e queste conseguenti liquidità non sono altrimenti gestibili che con un default oppure con una massiccia inflazione.

Se da una parte l’inflazione brucia il valore delle liquidità in eccesso, dall’altra determina una sempre maggiore pressione sugli stati avvezzi a vivere sul debito.

I tassi di interesse sono destinati a salire di conserva, gettando benzina sul fuoco della stagflazione.

Si aggiunga poi il crescente apprezzamento del dollaro americano e le continue incertezze su quello che sarà il comportamento della FED.

Nei fatti, questa è una situazione esplosiva, che potrebbe deflagrare anche senza nessun altro preavviso.

* * * * * * *


Inflation is killing the dollar carry trade in emerging markets.

The outlook for carry looks better for currencies in the Americas, and in the Europe, Middle East and Africa region than it does for Asia, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

* * *

A short-lived reprieve for emerging-market carry trades funded in dollars looks to be over, with an upsurge in US inflation making the outlook increasingly treacherous.

A Bloomberg index of these bets has dropped more than 4% in the past two months, the biggest slide since March 2020 for a strategy of borrowing in the greenback and investing in developing-nation currencies. The quickest US inflation in three decades is putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten, raising the prospect of higher costs for dollar borrowers, and less extra yield — or carry.

It’s a speedy about-face for traders, who just two months ago were taking comfort in the Fed’s dovish messaging around gradual pace of tightening, and were using the opportunity to pile into carry trades. Many of these bets are now coming undone due to the growing concern about inflation, and about whether central banks will have to play catch up with aggressive hikes.

“Sharply higher-than-expected inflation readings in the US and China will play havoc with the narrative that inflation pressures are transitory,” said Mitul Kotecha, chief emerging markets Asia and Europe strategist at TD Securities in Singapore. “This bodes badly for EM carry trades in the near term as it reduces the relative yield gap.”

A tightening in global liquidity conditions due to the Fed tapering its asset purchases may also raise some obstacles for emerging-market carry, Kotecha said.

Traders could turn to the euro and yen for cheaper funding costs. Both currencies are among the worst performers in the Group-of-10 space so far this quarter, with the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank expected to maintain an accommodative stance.

The losses in the Bloomberg index of emerging-market carry trades since the end of August come after it bounced up by 1.5% that month. The gauge, which covers eight currencies including the Brazilian real, Mexican peso and Indian rupee, is heading for a second annual loss.

Among the worst performers over the past two months, a trade of borrowing dollars and buying the Turkish lira has lost 11%, while investments in the South African rand or Hungarian forint have both dropped more than 6%. On the upside, putting funds in the Argentine peso has returned 7%.

There’s at least some prospect emerging-market central banks will raise interest rates fast enough to ensure a sufficient yield premium to improve carry returns. Investors may get further guidance about that this week with policy decisions from Turkey, Indonesia, Philippines and Hungary.

                         Picking favourites

The outlook for carry looks better for currencies in the Americas, and in the Europe, Middle East and Africa region than it does for Asia, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

The lira, Russian ruble, Mexican peso and rand are likely to generate the best returns, while the rupiah and rupee are less attractive, chief emerging-market credit strategist Damian Sassower in New York, wrote in a research note this month.

“Interest rates are rising more rapidly across Latin America and EMEA,” he said. “Asian currencies have lost their luster in 2021, as the short-dated carry embedded within high-yielding economies continues to diminish.”