Pubblicato in: Demografia, Stati Uniti

USA. 2022. Reddito delle famiglie per scaglioni. Medie e mediane. – Census Bureau

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-07-04.

America. Classi di reddito. 001

Lo U.S. Census Bureau ha rilasciato il Report Income Distribution for Households, di cui riportiamo i principali risultati in Tabella.

Molte sono le considerazioni utili alla comprensione.

In primo luogo, i valori medi sono consistentemente maggiori di quelli mediani. Questo accade perché le distribuzioni di frequenza sono left skewed, con una lunga coda destra. I valori medi non sono rappresentativi della distribuzione, ed il loro uso porta a conclusioni ingannevoli.

In secondo luogo, la percentuale dei capifamiglia nella fascia di reddito sotto i 25,000 Usd/anno ammonta al 18.1%. Questa percentuale è minima per le coppie sposate 5.6%, ma sale addirittura al 33.2% per i capifamiglia single.

In terzo luogo, la percentuale dei capifamiglia con reddito superiore ai 100,000 Usd è del 31.4%, che sale al 48.1% per le coppie sposate, ma crolla al 14.5% per i capifamiglia single.

* * * * * * *

Census Bureau Releases New Estimates on America’s Families and Living Arrangements

«- There were 37 million one-person households in 2021, or 28% of all U.S. households. In 1960, single-person households represented only 13% of all households.

– The number of families with their own children under age 18 in the household declined over the last two decades. In 2021, 40% of all U.S. families lived with their own children, compared to 44% in 2011 and 48% in 2001.

– In 2021, 34% of adults age 15 and over had never been married, up from 23% in 1950

– In 2021, more than one-half (58%) of adults ages 18 to 24 lived in their parental home, compared to 17% of adults ages 25 to 34»

* * * * * * *


Questi dati non stupiscono, essendo la logica conseguenza della Weltanschauung imperante negli Stati Uniti.

Secondo l’ideologia liberal la giovinezza è fatta per godersi la vita e, per le femmine, per fare carriera, occupazione spesso contrastante con la formazione dei una famiglia.

Ma sono ben poche quelle che riescono a sfondare nel mondo del lavoro, nonostante le onnipresenti quote rosa.

Non considerando il matrimonio una sacra istituzione, ne consegue la estrema facilità del divorzio. Il matrimonio è visto come un contratto a termine, indissolubile solo negli aspetti economici che ne conseguono, complici tribunali su questo inflessibili. Motivo di rovina economica della parte soccombente, quasi invariabilmente l’ex marito.

È una società che vive l’immanente senza percezione e senso del futuro: per i liberal con la morte termina la esistenza.

Da questo punto di vista, la inflazione galoppante al 9.7% sarà uno stimolo potente a rivedere molte posisioni ideologiche.

Pubblicato in: Demografia, Devoluzione socialismo, Psichiatria, Unione Europea

Unione Europea. Il 29% della popolazione è drogato con droghe maggiori.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-06-27.

2022-06-26__ Droga 001

«The European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA) is the leading authority on illicit drugs in the European Union. The Lisbon-based agency provides independent scientific evidence and analysis on all aspects of this constantly changing threat to individual lives and wider society. Its work contributes to EU and national policies to protect Europe’s citizens from drug-related harms.» [Emcdda]

2022-06-26__ Droga 002

* * *

Lo European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction ha pubblicato il Report

The drug situation in Europe up to 2022.

An overview and assessment of emerging threats and new developments

The 2022 European Drug Report draws on the latest data available to provide an overview of emerging drug issues affecting Europe. Based on a mixed method approach, utilising data from a range of routine and complementary sources, we present an analysis here of the current situation and also highlight some developments that may have important implications for drug policy and practitioners in Europe.

                         The drug situation in Europe up to 2022

Our overall assessment is that drug availability and use remain at high levels across the European Union, although considerable differences exist between countries.

Approximately 83.4 million or 29 % of adults (aged 15–64) in the European Union are estimated to have ever used an illicit drug, with more males (50.5 million) than females (33.0 million) reporting use. Cannabis remains the most widely consumed substance, with over 22 million European adults reporting its use in the last year. Stimulants are the second most commonly reported category. It is estimated that in the last year 3.5 million adults consumed cocaine, 2.6 million MDMA and 2 million amphetamines. Around 1 million Europeans used heroin or another illicit opioid in the last year. Although the prevalence of use is lower for opioid use than for other drugs, opioids still account for the greatest share of harms attributed to illicit drug use. This is illustrated by the presence of opioids, often in combination with other substances, which was found in around three quarters of fatal overdoses reported in the European Union for 2020. It is important to note that most of those with drug problems will be using a range of substances. We are also seeing considerably more complexity in drug consumption patterns, with medicinal products, non-controlled new psychoactive substances and substances such as ketamine and GBL/GHB now associated with drug problems in some countries or among some groups. This complexity is reflected in an increasing recognition that drug use is linked with, or complicates how we respond to, a wide range of today’s most pressing health and social issues. Among these issues are mental health problems and self-harm, homelessness, youth criminality and the exploitation of vulnerable individuals and communities.

* * * * * * *

Nell’economia del presente articolo, il dato di rilievo è espresso da questa frase:

«Approximately 83.4 million or 29 % of adults (aged 15–64) in the European Union are estimated to have ever used an illicit drug»

Ci si rende perfettamente conto dell’enorme giro economico illegale determinato dalla droga.

Esattamente come ci si rende perfettamente conto come un simile potere economico sia in grado di corrompere forze dell’ordine e magistrati.

Tuttavia il problema si configura a livello politico, anche esso corrompibile. Molti partiti politici, massimamente quelli liberal e di sinistra, sono promotori di legislazioni oltremodo tolleranti e ben difficilmente i magistrati erogano condanne detentive agli spacciatori.

Questo stato di cose obbliga a concludere come il problema della droga possa essere risolto solo estromettendo quelle componenti politiche dal potere di governo.

Le ripercussioni sociali sono drammatiche.

L’uso delle droghe comporta la dipendenza farmacologica. Tuttavia il problema è ancora a più alto livello. Sono spinte all’uso degli stupefacenti quelle persone incapaci di percepire nelle sue corrette dimensioni la realtà, e che si rifugiano nei deliri coatti prodotti dalle loro menti malate ed ingigantiti dall’uso di codeste sostanze.

Il tragico è che alla fine esse credono fermamente che i loro deliri siano la realtà.

In termini riduttivi, ma forse più facilmente intuibili, sono persone incapaci di intendere e di volere.

Si deve tristemente costatare però come in un regime retto a suffragio universale codeste persone esercitino il diritto di voto.

Pubblicato in: Armamenti, Demografia, Russia, Stati Uniti

Russia ha vinto il conflitto. Ma gli occidentali ancora non capiscono la strategia di Mr Putin.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-06-01.

2022-05-31__ Rifugiati 001

Le vittorie russe in Ucraina orientale accendono il dibattito sul corso della guerra.

La Russia ha vinto il conflitto con la Ukraina, ma gli occidentali stentano ancora a capirlo perché sembrano intrinsecamente incapaci di comprendere la strategia russa, che cercano di ridurre ai loro schemi mentali altamente ideologizzati, del tutto inidonei a decrivere i nuovi fenomeni.

Ma questo potrebbe ancora essere il meno. Mancano in modo incredibile di una visione di insieme, di saper collegare tra di essi fatti diversi. Globalità di visione che caratterizza invece la strategia russa del Presidente Putin.

Porteremo soltanto un esempio di un argomento mai citato dai media occidentali, come se non esistesse.

Il 24 febbraio in Ukraina vi erano 37 milioni di abitanti. Ad oggi ne sono fuoriuscite 6,737,208 persone. Questa è una arma micidiale del Presidente Putin. Spopola la Ukraina ed obbliga l’Unione Europea a mantenere ed alloggiare un numero esorbitante di persone rifugiate.

E questo grandioso risultato il Presidente Putin lo ha ottenuto senza spendervi nemmeno un copeco.

Una nazione è tale per le caratteristiche della sua popolazione. Senza popolazione diventa una mera realtà geografica.

Si pensi a cosa era la Prussia in passato e cosa ne è rimasto dopo che i russi deportarono tutta la popolazione tedesca rimpiazzandola con persone russe.

Se sicuramente le distruzioni materiali sono severe, il danno demografico è incolmabile.

Eppure i liberal socialisti occidentali e Joe Biden ancora non hanno compreso questo fenomeno, per la verità di ben facile comprensione.

* * * * * * *

«Russian wins in eastern Ukraine spark debate over course of war»

«Russian troops are making steady progress in Ukraine’s east on the back of more-concentrated artillery and air power, now controlling almost all of the Luhansk region and threatening to encircle thousands of Ukraine’s most experienced troops»

«That is sparking fears that Russia could be poised for a bigger breakthrough, and leading to increasingly panicked calls from Kyiv for even more powerful offensive weapons»

«Russia’s capture of a series of towns including Popasna means its forces hold 95% of the Luhansk region that makes up the northern half of the Donbas area»

«That increasingly entails leveling Ukrainian defenses with extended artillery barrages before attempting to secure territory»

«A sense that the tide of the war could be turning in favor of the likely narrowed goals of President Vladimir Putin»

«Just as previous Russian setbacks led to an over-optimistic consensus on Ukraine’s ability to win the war»

«So far Ukrainian commanders have not taken that bait, either because they are building up reserves and awaiting the arms needed from the US and other allies to make a successful counter-offensive possible, or because they are themselves suffering heavy losses and cannot»

«In Moscow, Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev said this week that Russia had no deadlines to meet in pursuing its “special military operation” in Ukraine»

«With Russian artillery now in reach of supply roads to the pocket, Ukraine’s commanders face difficult choices»

«It’s very difficult to explain to Ukrainians why the Russians still have the ability to move forward»

«Rather than the 90 howitzers the US has promised to date, Ukraine needs 400 to 500, as well as MLRS with ranges of at least 70 to 80 kilometers, weapons that will allow it to damage Russian forces and firepower at depth»

«Washington decided that Russia will not be allowed to prevail militarily, but it is doing that in a piecemeal fashion and there remains no consensus to deliver enough weapons»

«Remember that although the Russians are being bled, so are we»

* * * * * * *


Russian Wins in Eastern Ukraine Spark Debate Over Course of War

Arrival of more powerful weapons and fresh Ukrainian volunteers, combined with the steady attrition of Russian forces and equipment, suggests slow pace of movement on the battlefield favours Ukraine

Russian troops are making steady progress in Ukraine’s east on the back of more-concentrated artillery and air power, now controlling almost all of the Luhansk region and threatening to encircle thousands of Ukraine’s most experienced troops.

That is sparking fears that Russia could be poised for a bigger breakthrough, and leading to increasingly panicked calls from Kyiv for even more powerful offensive weapons.

Russia’s capture of a series of towns including Popasna means its forces hold 95% of the Luhansk region that makes up the northern half of the Donbas area. On Friday, Ukraine’s military command said Russian troops were pushing on from Popasna toward the town of Bakhmut, 32 kilometers (20 miles) west, seeking to isolate Ukrainian forces in a pocket of government-held territory around Sievierodonetsk.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson described the Russian gains as “slow, but I’m afraid palpable, progress,” in a Bloomberg interview. He also backed Ukrainian demands for supplies of longer range multiple launch rocket, or MLRS, systems as “where the world needs to go.”

The recent Russian gains appear at least in part to be the products of past Ukrainian success. By mounting so effective a defense that Russian commanders had to withdraw from around the country’s two largest cities – Kyiv and Kharkiv – Ukraine also drove them to abandon a wildly over-ambitious battle plan that had left their troops thinly spread and too far from logistical lifelines.

Ukrainian military spokesman Oleksandr Motuzyanyk described the change in the Russian approach to the war as “colossal” at a briefing this week. Russian commanders now take fewer risks and ensure better air cover as they pursue scorched earth tactics. That increasingly entails leveling Ukrainian defenses with extended artillery barrages before attempting to secure territory.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in a Friday night video address called the situation in Donbas “very difficult,” adding “the occupiers are trying to achieve in at least a hundred days of war the goals they hoped to achieve in the first days after February 24.”

Moscow has attempted to remedy some of the challenges it faced in “logistics and sustainment,” which left troops without crucial supplies in the early days of the war, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told reporters on Friday. Part of the improvement stems from the fact Donbas is closer to Russia and part comes from a higher degree of caution about “getting too far ahead,” he said.

A sense that the tide of the war could be turning in favor of the likely narrowed goals of President Vladimir Putin comes as some, including former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, call for Ukraine to consider trading territory for a cease-fire.

Yet how to interpret the Russian advances has sharply divided military analysts, with many warning against drawing conclusions from incremental movements on a relatively small part of the battlefield that earlier this month saw Russia suffer major losses in a failed attempt to cross the Siverskyi Donets river.

Just as previous Russian setbacks led to an over-optimistic consensus on Ukraine’s ability to win the war, relatively minor gains are now driving the kind of pessimism reflected in Kissinger’s remarks, Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King’s College London, wrote in a Friday blog post.

“This indicates the ever-present danger for those analyzing the course of this war of getting too far ahead of events on the ground,” Freedman wrote. “The best assessment of Russian strategy now is that it seeks to take what it can from the current effort and then dare Ukraine to try to seize it back.”

So far Ukrainian commanders have not taken that bait, either because they are building up reserves and awaiting the arms needed from the US and other allies to make a successful counter-offensive possible, or because they are themselves suffering heavy losses and cannot.

In the longer term, the arrival of ever more powerful weapons and fresh Ukrainian volunteers, combined with the steady attrition of Russian forces and equipment, suggests the slow pace of movement on the battlefield favours Ukraine, according to a weekly update by Rochan Consulting, a Warsaw-based group that closely follows the war.

“Time is working in Ukraine’s favor,” Rochan said in the report. “Unless Russia conducts mobilization (general or partial), its armed forces will not only stall over the next few weeks, but the influx of Western weaponry and Ukrainian personnel will allow Kyiv to start pushing Russian units back along a much broader front.”

In Moscow, Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev said this week that Russia had no deadlines to meet in pursuing its “special military operation” in Ukraine.

Yet there are dangers for Zelenskiy’s government, even from the limited win that Russia’s capture of the Sievierodonetsk pocket would represent for Putin, according to Mykola Bielieskov, a military analyst at Ukraine’s National Institute for Strategic Studies, a government think tank.

With Russian artillery now in reach of supply roads to the pocket, Ukraine’s commanders face difficult choices: To bring in reinforcements under fire, to withdraw under fire, or mount a Mariupol-style defense after encirclement, in the hope that a counter-offensive and relief will come in time.

“All options are militarily and politically risky,” Bielieskov said, speaking by phone from Kyiv. “It’s very difficult to explain to Ukrainians why the Russians still have the ability to move forward, after being rolled back from Kyiv and Kharkiv. So even if it is not a major success, this local success would have negative repercussions for the government.”

Bielieskov blamed the slowness of even the US administration to make the move from giving Ukraine’s soldiers what they need to survive Russian attacks, to giving them what’s required to compete with Russia’s quantitative advantage in artillery and mount counter-offensives.

Rather than the 90 howitzers the US has promised to date, Ukraine needs 400 to 500, as well as MLRS with ranges of at least 70 to 80 kilometers, weapons that will allow it to damage Russian forces and firepower at depth, according to Bielieskov.

Yet despite Johnson’s support and a CNN report that the US is preparing to green light sending MLRS to Ukraine, the administration in Washington has been hesitant, worrying that the missiles – some of which have a range of 300 kilometers – might be used to strike deep inside Russia, according to CNN and others.

A senior defense department official said Thursday that no decision had been taken, meaning even if the US goes ahead it would be weeks before any of the systems appear on the front lines.

“Washington decided that Russia will not be allowed to prevail militarily, but it is doing that in a piecemeal fashion and there remains no consensus to deliver enough weapons, quickly enough to turn Ukraine’s defense to offense,” said Bielieskov. “Remember that although the Russians are being bled, so are we.”

Pubblicato in: Demografia, Devoluzione socialismo, Senza categoria, Stati Uniti

Usa. Calo della immigrazione riduce il lavoro a basso costo e causa aumenti dei prezzi.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-05-14.

2022-05-10__ Immigrazione 001

Vi sono dei dati di fatto contro i quali si infrangono tutte le idee preconcette. La realtà fattuale stritola.

US birth rate falls 4% to its lowest point ever

«The American birth rate fell for the sixth consecutive year in 2020, with the lowest number of babies born since 1979, according to a new report.

Some 3.6 million babies were born in the US in 2020 – marking a 4% decline from the year before, found the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) National Center for Health Statistics.

The slump was seen across all recorded ethnicities and origins, according to the findings»

Attualmente il tasso di fertilità si attesta a 1.7, valore ben al di sotto di quello necessario a mantenere una popolazione in equilibrio.

Alla carenza di giovani si associa la disaffezione a voler fare lavori anche poco retribuiti. Si tende a vivere utilizzando i risparmi, sia pur essi falcidiati dalla inflazione.

* * * * * * *

Sotto questa luce appare essere evidente quanto sia ampio il problema della immigrazione, fornendo gli immigrati una manodopera non in pianta e sottopagata spesso ai limiti della sussistenza.

Per essere chiari, negli Stati Uniti la immigrazione è vista come una nuova forma di schiavitù.

Ma Nemesi è spietata.

Alla carenza della manodopera immigrata si associa una levitazione dei costi di produzione, elemento questo che concorre a fare aumentare il tasso di inflazione.

Siamo franchi: gli Stati Uniti si reggono anche su questa nuova forma di schiavitù

* * * * * * *

In calce riportiamo una traduzione in lingua italiana dell’accluso articolo.

* * * * * * *

«Shortage of immigrant labor raises prices in the US»

«About 10 miles (16 kilometers) from the Rio Grande, Mike Helle’s farm suffers from such a shortage of migrant workers that he has replaced 450 acres (180 hectares) of leafy greens, which are harvested by hand, with crops that can be harvest with machines»

«In Houston, Al Flores raised prices at his restaurant because the cost of meat doubled due to a lack of immigrant staff on the production lines of the meatpacking plants»

«In the Dallas area, Joshua Correa raised the prices of homes built by his company by $150,000 due in part to cost increases caused by a lack of immigrant labor»

«It is estimated that the country has two million fewer immigrants than it would have if the rate had been maintained»

«This has sparked a desperate dispute over labor in many sectors, including meatpacking and home construction, which also contributes to shortages and price increases.»

«In the short term, we will adjust to that deficit in the labor market through increases in wages and prices»

«The labor factor is one of those that contribute to the United States suffering its highest inflation in the last 40 years; others are the disruptions in supply chains due to the coronavirus pandemic and the increase in fuel and raw material prices since the Russian invasion of Ukraine»

«Given the sharp decline in birth rates over the past two decades, some economists forecast that the potential labor force will begin to shrink by 2025»

«A recent Gallup poll reveals that fears of unauthorized immigration are the highest in two decades»

«With the November midterm elections looming, which will be difficult for Democrats, President Biden’s party is divided over Washington’s attempt to end pandemic restrictions on the asylum application process»

«The turn against immigration distresses some Texas business owners»

«Correa has raised the regular price of his homes from $500,000 to about $650,000»

* * * * * * *


Shortage of immigrant labor raises prices in the US

About 10 miles (16 kilometers) from the Rio Grande, Mike Helle’s farm suffers from such a shortage of migrant workers that he has replaced 450 acres (180 hectares) of leafy greens, which are harvested by hand, with crops that can be harvest with machines.

In Houston, Al Flores raised prices at his restaurant because the cost of meat doubled due to a lack of immigrant staff on the production lines of the meatpacking plants. In the Dallas area, Joshua Correa raised the prices of homes built by his company by $150,000 due in part to cost increases caused by a lack of immigrant labor.

After immigration to the United States declined under President Donald Trump — and came to a near halt during the 18 months of the coronavirus pandemic — the country is finding that there is a labor shortage due in part to those brakes.

It is estimated that the country has two million fewer immigrants than it would have if the rate had been maintained. This has sparked a desperate dispute over labor in many sectors, including meatpacking and home construction, which also contributes to shortages and price increases.

“The lack of those two million immigrants partly explains why we have a labor shortage,” said Giovanni Peri, an economist at the University of California, Davis, who calculated the shortfall. “In the short term, we will adjust to that deficit in the labor market through increases in wages and prices.”

The labor factor is one of those that contribute to the United States suffering its highest inflation in the last 40 years; others are the disruptions in supply chains due to the coronavirus pandemic and the increase in fuel and raw material prices since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Steve Camarota, a researcher at the Center for Immigration Studies, a supporter of reducing immigration, believes that during the presidency of Joe Biden there will be a sharp increase in unauthorized immigration that will offset the shortages that still persist after the pandemic. He further argues that wage increases in low-income sectors such as agriculture contribute little to inflation.

“I don’t think wage increases are a bad thing for the poor and I think it’s mathematically impossible to reduce inflation with limits on the lowest wages,” Camarota told The Associated Press.

Immigration is rapidly returning to its pre-pandemic levels, according to the researchers, but the United States would need a sharp acceleration to make up the shortfall. Given the sharp decline in birth rates over the past two decades, some economists forecast that the potential labor force will begin to shrink by 2025.

Meanwhile, the political system shows little will to increase immigration. The Democrats, who control the White House and Congress and have been the most pro-immigrant party in recent years, have not introduced important bills that would allow more new residents to enter the country. A recent Gallup poll reveals that fears of unauthorized immigration are the highest in two decades. With the November midterm elections looming, which will be difficult for Democrats, President Biden’s party is divided over Washington’s attempt to end pandemic restrictions on the asylum application process.

“At some point we either decided to get older and shrink or we changed our immigration policy,” said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, an economist and a former official in the administration of President George W. Bush who now chairs the center-right US Action Forum.

Holtz-Eakin acknowledged that a change in immigration policy is unlikely.

“The bases of both parties are very closed,” he said.

This is certainly the case in Republican-ruled Texas, which encompasses the longest and busiest stretch of the southern border.

In 2017, the legislature forced cities to have their federal immigration agents search for people living in the United States without legal authorization. Gov. Greg Abbott sent the Texas National Guard to patrol the border and recently caused massive traffic jams when he ordered increased inspections at border crossings.

The turn against immigration distresses some Texas business owners.

“Immigration is very important to our workforce in the United States,” Correa acknowledged. “We just need it.”

Correa is seeing his projects running two or three months behind schedule as he and his subcontractors — from drywall erectors to plumbers and electricians — struggle to put together work teams.

Correa has raised the regular price of his homes from $500,000 to about $650,000.

“We are feeling it and if at the end of the day we are feeling it as builders and developers, the consumer pays the price,” said Correa, who spoke from Pensacola, Florida, where he brought a crew of workers as a favor for a client who did not has been able to find employees to fix a beach house damaged by Hurricane Sally in 2020.

* * * * * * *


La carenza di manodopera immigrata fa aumentare i prezzi negli Stati Uniti

A circa 16 chilometri dal Rio Grande, la fattoria di Mike Helle soffre di una tale carenza di lavoratori immigrati che ha sostituito 450 acri (180 ettari) di verdure a foglia, che vengono raccolte a mano, con colture che possono essere raccolte con macchine.

A Houston, Al Flores ha aumentato i prezzi del suo ristorante perché il costo della carne è raddoppiato a causa della mancanza di personale immigrato sulle linee di produzione degli stabilimenti di confezionamento della carne. Nell’area di Dallas, Joshua Correa ha aumentato i prezzi delle case costruite dalla sua azienda di 150.000 dollari in parte a causa dell’aumento dei costi causato dalla mancanza di manodopera immigrata.

Dopo che l’immigrazione negli Stati Uniti è diminuita sotto il presidente Donald Trump – e si è quasi arrestata durante i 18 mesi della pandemia di coronavirus – il paese sta scoprendo che c’è una carenza di manodopera dovuta in parte a quei freni.

Si stima che il paese abbia due milioni di immigrati in meno di quanti ne avrebbe se il tasso fosse stato mantenuto. Questo ha scatenato una disperata disputa sulla manodopera in molti settori, tra cui l’imballaggio della carne e la costruzione di case, che contribuisce anche alla carenza e all’aumento dei prezzi.

“La mancanza di quei due milioni di immigrati spiega in parte perché abbiamo una carenza di manodopera”, ha detto Giovanni Peri, un economista dell’Università della California, Davis, che ha calcolato il deficit. “A breve termine, ci adegueremo a questo deficit nel mercato del lavoro attraverso aumenti dei salari e dei prezzi”.

Il fattore lavoro è uno di quelli che contribuiscono a far sì che gli Stati Uniti subiscano la più alta inflazione degli ultimi 40 anni; altri sono le interruzioni delle catene di approvvigionamento dovute alla pandemia di coronavirus e l’aumento dei prezzi del carburante e delle materie prime dopo l’invasione russa dell’Ucraina.

Steve Camarota, un ricercatore del Center for Immigration Studies, un sostenitore della riduzione dell’immigrazione, crede che durante la presidenza di Joe Biden ci sarà un forte aumento dell’immigrazione non autorizzata che compenserà le carenze che ancora persistono dopo la pandemia. Egli sostiene inoltre che gli aumenti salariali nei settori a basso reddito come l’agricoltura contribuiscono poco all’inflazione.

“Non penso che gli aumenti salariali siano una brutta cosa per i poveri e penso che sia matematicamente impossibile ridurre l’inflazione con limiti sui salari più bassi”, ha detto Camarota a The Associated Press.

L’immigrazione sta rapidamente tornando ai suoi livelli pre-pandemici, secondo i ricercatori, ma gli Stati Uniti avrebbero bisogno di una forte accelerazione per recuperare il deficit. Dato il forte calo delle nascite negli ultimi due decenni, alcuni economisti prevedono che la forza lavoro potenziale inizierà a ridursi entro il 2025.

Nel frattempo, il sistema politico mostra poca volontà di aumentare l’immigrazione. I democratici, che controllano la Casa Bianca e il Congresso e sono stati il partito più favorevole agli immigrati negli ultimi anni, non hanno introdotto importanti disegni di legge che permetterebbero a più nuovi residenti di entrare nel paese. Un recente sondaggio Gallup rivela che i timori dell’immigrazione non autorizzata sono i più alti degli ultimi due decenni. Con le elezioni di midterm di novembre incombenti, che saranno difficili per i democratici, il partito del presidente Biden è diviso sul tentativo di Washington di porre fine alle restrizioni pandemiche sul processo di richiesta di asilo.

“A un certo punto o abbiamo deciso di invecchiare e ridurci o abbiamo cambiato la nostra politica sull’immigrazione”, ha detto Douglas Holtz-Eakin, un economista ed ex funzionario dell’amministrazione del presidente George W. Bush che ora presiede il centro-destra US Action Forum.

Holtz-Eakin ha riconosciuto che un cambiamento nella politica d’immigrazione è improbabile.

“Le basi di entrambi i partiti sono molto chiuse”, ha detto.

Questo è certamente il caso del Texas governato dai repubblicani, che comprende il tratto più lungo e trafficato del confine meridionale.

Nel 2017, la legislatura ha costretto le città a far cercare ai loro agenti federali dell’immigrazione le persone che vivono negli Stati Uniti senza autorizzazione legale. Il governatore Greg Abbott ha inviato la Guardia Nazionale del Texas per pattugliare il confine e recentemente ha causato enormi ingorghi quando ha ordinato di aumentare le ispezioni ai valichi di frontiera.

La svolta contro l’immigrazione angoscia alcuni imprenditori del Texas.

“L’immigrazione è molto importante per la nostra forza lavoro negli Stati Uniti”, ha riconosciuto Correa. “Ne abbiamo bisogno”.

Correa vede i suoi progetti in ritardo di due o tre mesi sulla tabella di marcia, mentre lui e i suoi subappaltatori – dai muratori a secco agli idraulici ed elettricisti – lottano per mettere insieme le squadre di lavoro.

Correa ha aumentato il prezzo regolare delle sue case da 500.000 dollari a circa 650.000 dollari.

“Lo stiamo sentendo e se alla fine della giornata lo stiamo sentendo come costruttori e sviluppatori, il consumatore ne paga il prezzo”, ha detto Correa, che ha parlato da Pensacola, Florida, dove ha portato una squadra di lavoratori come favore per un cliente che non è stato in grado di trovare dipendenti per riparare una casa sulla spiaggia danneggiata dall’uragano Sally nel 2020.

Pubblicato in: Demografia, Russia

Conflitto russo-ukraino. Fuoriuscite il 37.01% delle donne in età fertile.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-04-15.

abaco 013

Questo articolo è l’edizione aggiornata del precedente, pubblicato il 200-03-17.

Conflitto russo-ukraino. Considerazioni sull’esodo. Un conto approssimativo.

* * * * * * *

«Before the conflict, Ukraine had a population of 37 million in the regions under government control, excluding Russia-annexed Crimea and the pro-Russian separatist regions in the east» [AFP]

A tutto l’8 aprile 4,441,663 persone hanno lasciato l’Ukraina. [AFP]

Consultare anche questo articolo.

* * * * * * *

Ci sia consentito un conto approssimato e grossolano, fatto per stimare gli ordini di grandezza del fenomeno.

Si potrebbe stimare che su 37 milioni di abitanti un po’ più della metà siano state donne, ossia 19 milioni.

Di queste, circa dodici milioni erano giovani adulte in età fertile.

Ma la quasi totalità delle 4,441,663 di persone che hanno lasciato l’Ukraina erano donne in età fertile, essendo l’espatrio degli uomini vietato.

Possiamo quindi stimare che sia fuoriuscito il 37.01% delle donne ukraine in età fertile. Molto verosimilmente, se sono fuggite queste donne avevano sentimenti filo-occidentali.

Ben difficilmente i russi permetteranno a queste fuoriuscite il rientro a situazione stabilizzata.

Ne conseguirà in Ukraina una crisi demografica di portata mia vista, perché senza donne non si procrea.

A latere, anche il quadro politico della popolazione rimasta risulterà essere profondamente variato rispetto l’ante-guerra.

Ecco perché i russi stanno favorendo gli espatri: vogliono precludere all’Ukraina ogni possibile futuro. Un paese spopolato e non in grado di generare una prole è destinato alla estinzione, travagliata anche da una residua popolazione senescente.

Nel contempo, i paesi del blocco europeo sono stati subissati nel volgere di un mese e mezzo di ben 4,441,663  persone da mantenere. Infatti il mercato del lavoro nel blocco europeo offre ben poche occasioni di inserimento lavorativo, per non parlare poi del problema della lingua.

* * * * * * *

Siamo perfettamente consci di quanto questo conto sia approssimato, ma lo riterremmo essere utile per aver almeno un ordine di grandezza del fenomeno.

 

Pubblicato in: Demografia

Conflitto russo-ukraino. Considerazioni sull’esodo. Un conto approssimativo.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-03-17.

abaco 013

«Before the conflict, Ukraine had a population of 37 million in the regions under government control, excluding Russia-annexed Crimea and the pro-Russian separatist regions in the east» [AFP]

A tutto il 13 marzo 2,808,792 persone hanno lasciato l’Ukraina. [AFP]

* * * * * * *


Ci sia consentito un conto approssimato e grossolano, fatto per stimare gli ordini di grandezza del fenomeno.

Si potrebbe stimare che su 37 milioni di abitanti un po’ più della metà siano state donne, ossia 19 milioni.

Di queste, circa dodici milioni erano giovani adulte in età fertile.

Ma la quasi totalità dei 2,808,792 di persone che hanno lasciato l’Ukraina erano donne, essendo l’espatrio degli uomini vietato.

Possiamo quindi stimare che sia fuoriuscito il 23.41% delle donne ukraine in età fertile. Molto verosimilmente, se sono fuggite queste donne avevano sentimenti filo-occidentali.

* * * * * * *

Ben difficilmente i russi permetteranno a queste fuoriuscite il rientro a situazione stabilizzata.

Ne conseguirà in Ukraina una crisi demografica di portata mia vista, perché senza donne non si procrea.

A latere, anche il quadro politico della popolazione rimasta risulterà essere profondamente variato rispetto l’ante-guerra.

Ecco perché i russi stanno favorendo gli espatri: vogliono precludere all’Ukraina ogni possibile futuro.

* * * * * * *

Siamo perfettamente consci di quanto questo conto sia approssimato, ma lo riterremmo essere utile per aver un ordine di grandezza del fenomeno.

Pubblicato in: Demografia, Devoluzione socialismo, Putin, Russia

Ukraina. Emigrati sono già 660,000. Mr Putin ottiene due risultati clamorosi.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-02-03.

2022-03-01__ Fronte meridionale 001

«This is a summary of what was said by UNHCR spokesperson Shabia Mantoo – to whom quoted text may be attributed – at today’s press briefing at the Palais des Nations in Geneva»

«Around 660,000 refugees have now fled Ukraine to neighboring countries in the past six days»

«At this rate, the situation looks set to become Europe’s largest refugee crisis this century»

«All neighboring countries have to date commendably kept their borders open for refugees fleeing Ukraine. Most have fled to Poland, Hungary, Moldova, Romania, Slovakia»

«National authorities are assuming responsibility for the registration, reception, accommodation and protection of these refugees»

«Most arrivals are women and children from all parts of Ukraine»

«When refugees arrive, they are registered by the authorities»

* * * * * * *

La Russia ha preso il controllo dei porti ukraini, riducendo di fatto questa nazione ad uno stato continentale senza sbocchi al mare. Le conseguenze sono evidenti: l’Ukraina non è più in grado di esportare od importare alcunché.

Adesso i russi non hanno fretta alcuna di proseguire.

L’Unione europea si aspetterebbe fino a sette milioni di migranti, una marea umana di difficilissima collocazione e grande spesa.

Ma Mr Putin è ben più sottile.

«Most arrivals are women and children»

La quasi totalità degli emigrati sono donne in età fertile.

Questo fatto sarà foriero di grandi triboli nell’Unione Europea, ma nel contempo depaupererà l’Ukraina generando una crisi demografica senza precedenti ed irreversibile. Senza donne non si generano figli.

Mr Putin sta pianificando ed ottenendo la virtuale scomparsa degli ukraini.

* * * * * * *


UNHCR mobilizing to aid forcibly displaced in Ukraine and neighbouring countries

This is a summary of what was said by UNHCR spokesperson Shabia Mantoo – to whom quoted text may be attributed – at today’s press briefing at the Palais des Nations in Geneva.

Around 660,000 refugees have now fled Ukraine to neighboring countries in the past six days, according to the latest government data compiled by UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency.

At this rate, the situation looks set to become Europe’s largest refugee crisis this century, and UNHCR is mobilizing resources to respond as quickly and effectively as possible.

All neighboring countries have to date commendably kept their borders open for refugees fleeing Ukraine. Most have fled to Poland, Hungary, Moldova, Romania, Slovakia, while others have moved towards various other European countries. We are also aware that a sizeable number has moved to the Russian Federation. National authorities are assuming responsibility for the registration, reception, accommodation and protection of these refugees.

We have seen tremendous solidarity and hospitality from the countries receiving refugees, including from the authorities and local communities.

UNHCR urges governments to continue to maintain access to territory for all those fleeing: Ukrainians, and third country nationals living in Ukraine, who are now forced to escape the violence. We stress that there must be no discrimination against any person or group.

UNHCR has a long-standing presence in the region, including in Poland, Hungary, Moldova, Slovakia and Romania, and is coordinating the refugee response with other UN agencies and NGO partners, in support of national authorities. We are reinforcing our operations by urgently sending more resources, staff and relief items to deploy in the region while preparing to provide cash assistance via cards as needed. UNHCR child welfare and protection specialists are also ready to support national authorities.

                         In Poland:

UNHCR field staff report miles of queues at the border on the Ukrainian side. Those who crossed the border said that they had been waiting up to 60 hours. Most arrivals are women and children from all parts of Ukraine. Temperatures are freezing and many have reported spending days on the road waiting to cross. UNHCR is liaising with the authorities who have made available assistance. It is also working with partners inside Ukraine to mobilize teams to distribute this assistance. When refugees arrive, they are registered by the authorities.  UNHCR is aware of challenges faced by some third country nationals seeking to enter Poland and are in touch with the authorities to ensure that all those in need of international protection have access to procedures.  Refugees who have the means are finding their own accommodation, whereas others are being hosted with local communities who have opened their homes, or sheltered in reception centers.

UNHCR has been present at the Polish-Ukrainian border since 24 February to monitor arrival trends and is moving relief supplies from its global stocks to a newly rented warehouse at the border (in Rzeszow). Our office in Poland has been inundated with requests for information and support by refugees. UNHCR is providing new arrivals with information and legal services through a Polish legal partner.

                         In Hungary:

UNHCR is present at the border, assessing the number of refugees, and is ready to scale up its operational support to the Government. Arrivals are steady and waiting times vary. On arrival, following screening and registration, Ukrainians and other nationalities are guided to assembly points where they can apply for asylum and are granted temporary documentation.  Support is being provided by municipalities humanitarian actors, and members of the community.

                         In Romania:

There are queues of up to 20 hours to enter Romania. National authorities are managing accommodation and transport – new arrivals are being moved from the border to reception centres or other locations. Local communities are generously helping with transport and accommodation, while private companies are paying for hotels. Volunteers are providing interpretation services and other forms of practical support. UNHCR and partners have established a presence at all main border points – we are currently deployed at Siret and Isaccea.  We are part of the government-led task force that is coordinating needs and support. We are providing new arrivals with information on asylum procedures, and, through partners, are offering legal advice and psychological support. We have also established a 24/7 emergency hotline and online help pages for refugees in Ukrainian.

                         In Moldova:

It is still taking 24 hours to cover the 60-odd kms between Odessa and the border with Moldova. New arrivals are being accommodated in temporary reception centres and additional sites are being identified. Some have found their own accommodation or are being hosted by local communities. UNHCR is providing support to enhance reception capacity and is distributing essential relief items, including blankets, sleeping bags and hygiene items. An airlift from Dubai is due to arrive tomorrow with more supplies. UNHCR’s partners are present at various Moldovan border crossings, providing counselling to newly arrived refugees.

                         In Slovakia:

Since 24 February, UNHCR has regularly visited four out of five main border crossing points. Arrivals to Slovakia are lower but the government is maintaining an open and welcoming policy towards refugees, and has rapidly changed asylum laws to help fast-track asylum procedures. Financial and material support is also being provided by local communities, who are supporting refugees with food and hygiene items, offers of free transport, and accommodation. Local municipalities and villages are also creating temporary shelters for refugees.

                         In Ukraine

UNHCR is also ramping up its response in Ukraine to help displaced and conflict affected people. But the volatile situation, security concerns, lack of safe access for humanitarian workers and movement restrictions are posing major challenges for aid workers, including UNHCR staff. UNHCR continues to deliver when safe to do so, providing some assistance and engaging in protection activities like working with internally displaced community leaders to assess humanitarian needs and identify safe sites where IDPs can be received. UNHCR is also preparing to deliver assistance to internally displaced people in western Ukraine where humanitarian access is easier and is also strengthening nationwide hotlines to provide critical protection information to displaced civilians.

Pubblicato in: Demografia, Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Italia. Il dramma del Sud. In Calabria solo il 30.3% delle donne è occupata.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-02-15.

202202-09__ Sud 001

L’Ufficio Studi di Confcommercio ha rilasciato un inquietante report: Il PNRR per un nuovo Mezzogiorno

È una relazione densa di numeri e tabelle, tra le quali una spicca per la gravità dei dati.

* * * * * * *

Questo è il sunto redatto dall’Ansa.

Sud: Confcommercio, occupazione donne crolla al 33%

Il tasso di occupazione delle donne nella fascia 15-64 anni al Sud “è precipitato al 33%” contro un tasso di occupazione del 59,2% al Centro-Nord e del 63% nell’Ue-27, ossia 30 punti indietro al resto dell’Italia e dell’Europa.

Lo rileva il Centro studi di Confcommercio in un rapporto sul Sud e il Pnrr sui dati al 2019, in cui si sottolinea che addirittura in Calabria il tasso di occupazione delle donne è sceso dal 31% del 2007 al 30,3%.

La partecipazione delle donne al mercato del lavoro nel Mezzogiorno è “assurdamente bassa”, afferma il centro studi.
“La crisi Covid ha indebolito ulteriormente il Mezzogiorno in termini di occupazione, capitale produttivo e reddito. Con il Pnrr è possibile recuperare il terreno perduto attraverso quasi il doppio degli investimenti pubblici che, se indirizzati presto e bene, attireranno anche ingenti risorse private rafforzando la filiera turistica”, ha detto il presidente di Confcommercio, Carlo Sangalli.

La Confederazione rivede poi al ribasso le proprie stime sul Pil per quest’anno: dal 4% stimato a dicembre al 3,5-3,7%. Il Governo al momento prevede per quest’anno una crescita del 4,7%.

* * * * * * *

Ci siamo già dovuti occupare di questo spinoso e doloroso problema.

Istat. Nel Mezzogiorno il 46.9% della popolazione è a rischio povertà.

Mezzogiorno. Lenta ed inesorabile agonia: lo stanno assassinando.

Fuga dall’Italia. Due milioni in dieci anni.

Italia. Rapporto Caritas. Un milione di poveri in più.

Italia. 2020. Povertà assoluta. Famiglie 7.7%, Individui 9.4%, ossia 5.6 milioni. – Istat.

Italia. 2018. Imprese e multinazionali sul territorio nazionale. Il dramma del Sud.

* * * * * * *

I governi che si sono succeduti hanno visto il Sud come un grande serbatoio di voti da curare ed utilizzare come serbatoio di voti clientelari, elargendo sussidi.

Ma se i sussidi possono essere giustificati come rimedi temporanei, certo non risolvono il problema.

Reinstaurare la legalità e generare posti di lavoro nel comparto produttivo sembrerebbe essere l’unica reale soluzione possibile: solo posti di lavoro produttivo possono risolvere il problema. Fermare in primo luogo l’esodo dal Sud, che lo depaupera del bene più prezioso, ossia del suo capitale umano e giovane.

La carenza di posti di lavoro produttivi si evidenzia purtroppo più che bene nel tasso di occupazione femminile, che se nel Sud ammonta al 33.2%, in Calabria è un misero 30.3%.

I pazienti si curano fino a tanto che siano vivi: una volta deceduti servono solo le esequie.

Pubblicato in: Demografia, Devoluzione socialismo, Giustizia, Persona Umana, Stati Uniti

Aborto. Questione sia giuridica sia politica tra liberal e repubblicani. Prima causa di morte nel 2021.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-02-06.

Aborto 001

Abortion Leading Global Cause of Death in 2021 with 43 Million Killed

«Abortion was the leading cause of death globally in 2021, with nearly 43 million unborn babies killed in the womb, according to data provided by Worldometer.

As of noon on December 31, 2021, there were 42.6 million abortions performed in the course of the year, Worldometer revealed, while 8.2 million people died from cancer, 5 million from smoking, 1.7 million of HIV/AIDS, 1.3 million from traffic fatalities, and 1 million from suicide.»

* * *

Biden calls on U.S. Supreme Court to protect abortion rights

«President Joe Biden’s administration urged the U.S. Supreme Court on Monday not to overturn the landmark 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling that legalized abortion nationwide in an upcoming case concerning a restrictive Mississippi law»

* * * * * * *

«With Roe v. Wade facing its strongest threat in decades, a new poll finds Democrats increasingly view protecting abortion rights as a high priority for the government.»

«Thirteen percent of Democrats mentioned abortion or reproductive rights as one of the issues they want the federal government to address in 2022»

«But the exponential rise in the percentage citing reproductive rights as a key concern suggests the issue is resonating with Democrats as the Supreme Court considers cases that could lead to dramatic restrictions on abortion access»

«With a 6-3 conservative majority on the Supreme Court, Republicans see this as their best chance in years to overturn Roe v. Wade, the 1973 decision legalizing abortion throughout the United States»

«That decision will be made public in June»

«conventional wisdom holds that abortion is a motivating issue for Republicans and not for Democrats»

«opponents of abortion had greater strength of attitudes and considered the issue important to them personally more than pro-choice people»

«That may be changing»

«But I still actually think that huge swaths of this population still don’t quite believe that the access to abortion and the 50-year precedent that is Roe v. Wade is really hanging in the balance»

* * * * * * *

A giugno la Suprema Corte emetterà sentenza sulla questione della Roe v. Wade.

Le Loro Giustizie giudicheranno secondo scienza e coscienza applicando i dettami costituzionali.

Ma il problema ha sostanziali aspetti politici.

L’aborto è parte integrante dell’ideologia liberal socialista, e tutta la loro leadership lo sostiene come bandiera di battaglia, come ha fatto anche Joe Biden. Ovunque vadano al potere lo impongono, così come condizionano ad esso gli aiuti economici.

Tuttavia, solo il 13% degli Elettori democratici considera l’aborto elemento non contrattabile. E questo è un dato che da da pensare.

In altri termini, la base e la dirigenza liberal americana hanno su questo argomento due visioni opposte e contrastanti, fatto questo che complica non poco le scelte politiche dei democratici.

In ogni caso, però, la sentenza della Corte Suprema metterà un punto fermo sulla questione, essendo tra l’altro un giudizio inappellabile.

* * * * * * *


Abortion grows as priority issue for Democrats: AP-NORC poll.

Washington (AP) — With Roe v. Wade facing its strongest threat in decades, a new poll finds Democrats increasingly view protecting abortion rights as a high priority for the government.

Thirteen percent of Democrats mentioned abortion or reproductive rights as one of the issues they want the federal government to address in 2022, according to a December poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. That’s up from less than 1% of Democrats who named it as a priority for 2021 and 3% who listed it in 2020.

Some other issues like the economy, COVID-19, health care and gun control ranked as higher priorities for Democrats in the poll, which allowed respondents to name up to five top issues. But the exponential rise in the percentage citing reproductive rights as a key concern suggests the issue is resonating with Democrats as the Supreme Court considers cases that could lead to dramatic restrictions on abortion access.

“The public have lots of things that they want to see government addressing,” said Jennifer Benz, deputy director of The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. “You ask this kind of question in a time of economic turmoil and in the time of a pandemic and all of these other things going on, we might not expect abortion to rise to the top.”

With a 6-3 conservative majority on the Supreme Court, Republicans see this as their best chance in years to overturn Roe v. Wade, the 1973 decision legalizing abortion throughout the United States. In December, the Supreme Court left in place a Texas law that bans most abortions in the state and signaled during arguments that they would uphold a Mississippi law that bans abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy. That decision will be made public in June.

Calling the abortion polling numbers “stark,” Benz noted that conventional wisdom holds that abortion is a motivating issue for Republicans and not for Democrats. Research from the 1980s and 1990s, Benz said, “regularly found that opponents of abortion had greater strength of attitudes and considered the issue important to them personally more than pro-choice people.”

That may be changing. Sam Lau, senior director for advocacy media at the Planned Parenthood Action Fund, believes more Americans are recognizing this moment as a crisis for abortion access.

“I think what we have seen is absolutely an increase in awareness, an increase in urgency, an increase in the need to fight back,” he said. “But I still actually think that huge swaths of this population still don’t quite believe that the access to abortion and the 50-year precedent that is Roe v. Wade is really hanging in the balance.”

Pubblicato in: Demografia, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Blocco Europeo. Indice Dipendenza Anziani sopra il 34.8%. – Eurostat.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-11-21.

2021-10-08__ Old-Age Dependency Ratio 001

«The old-age dependency ratio in the EU has increased noticeably in the last 20 years»

«In 2001, the EU’s old-age dependency ratio was 25.9%, meaning there were slightly fewer than four adults of working age (20-64) for every person aged 65 years or more»

«Fast-forward to 1 January 2020, the ratio increased to 34.8%, meaning there were slightly fewer than three adults of working age for every person aged 65 years or more»

«As of 1 January 2020, some of the highest ratios were concentrated in eastern Germany, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, Portugal and Finland»

«Among the EU regions, Evrytania, a mountainous region in central Greece, recorded the highest old-age dependency ratio (78.3%). This region was followed by the north-western Belgian region of Arr. Veurne (64.6%) and the German region of Suhl, Kreisfreie Stadt (61.3%)»

«At EU level, the ratio is projected to reach 56.7% by 1 January 2050, when there will be fewer than two working-age adults for each elderly person»

2021-10-08__ Old-Age Dependency Ratio 003

* * * * * * *

2021-10-08__ Old-Age Dependency Ratio 002

Il problema demografico del blocco europeo è riassumibile un in unico macrodato: le femmine autoctone hanno quasi smesso di proliferare. Questa crisi demografica ha un peso ancor maggiore di quanto possano avere le disastrose condizioni del sistema produttivo europeo.

Ma questi dati interessano da vicino i Contribuenti.

In quasi tutti gli stati afferenti al blocco europeo i sistemi pensionistici si reggono, meglio dovrebbero reggersi, sui contributi versati dalle persone in età lavorativa: diminuendo il numero dei cittadini al lavoro ed aumentando l’età media della popolazione, i sistemi pensionistici non possono reggere il peso economico.

Se poi si tenesse presenta che il blocco europeo sia entrato in un regime di stagflazione, questi dati apparirebbero in tutta la loro drammaticità.

* * * * * * *


Eurostat. Old-age dependency ratio increases across EU regions

The old-age dependency ratio in the EU has increased noticeably in the last 20 years. In 2001, the EU’s old-age dependency ratio was 25.9%, meaning there were slightly fewer than four adults of working age (20-64) for every person aged 65 years or more. Fast-forward to 1 January 2020, the ratio increased to 34.8%, meaning there were slightly fewer than three adults of working age for every person aged 65 years or more. 

As of 1 January 2020, some of the highest ratios were concentrated in eastern Germany, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, Portugal and Finland. Most of these regions were predominantly rural, mountainous, or relatively remote, where it is likely that younger people have left the region to continue their studies or look for jobs.

Among the EU regions, Evrytania, a mountainous region in central Greece, recorded the highest old-age dependency ratio (78.3%). This region was followed by the north-western Belgian region of Arr. Veurne (64.6%) and the German region of Suhl, Kreisfreie Stadt (61.3%). 

In contrast, the lowest ratios in the EU were recorded in the French outermost region of Mayotte (6.1%) and Guyane (11.7%) and the Spanish region of Fuerteventura (16.5%).

30-year projection shows overall ratio increase

Over the next three decades, old-age dependency ratios are projected to increase in all 1 169 EU regions, except for Harz, the westernmost region of Sachsen-Anhalt, in Germany. 

At EU level, the ratio is projected to reach 56.7% by 1 January 2050, when there will be fewer than two working-age adults for each elderly person. The projections indicate that the old-age dependency ratio will have risen to at least 50% in the vast majority (974) of EU regions.