Pubblicato in: Demografia, Politica Mondiale

Giappone. Domani elezioni anticipate. Abe favorito.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-10-21.

2017-10-21__Giappone__001

«new polling shows Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s ruling coalition on track to win around 300 of the 465 seats in the Diet’s lower house»

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«But The Nikkei Inc. survey indicates that some uncertainty remains on the eve of the Japanese election, with 23% of the 289 single-seat constituencies and 16% of the 176 proportional-representation seats still considered close races»

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«finds 207 single-seat districts and 55 proportional-representation seats leaning toward or strongly favoring Abe’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party»

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«The poll suggests the coalition may capture 63.9% of the chamber, down from 68.2% before the election»

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«This would leave it just short of the 310 seats — a two-thirds supermajority — needed to advance Abe’s goal of revising Japan’s pacifist constitution to formally acknowledge the role of the country’s Self-Defense Forces»

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Il Giappone ha molti severi problemi, alcuni dei quali sono stati solamente adombrati in campagna elettorale, secondo l ostile orientale.

Sono però problemi la risoluzione dei quali richiederebbe maggioranze sopra i 310 deputati, perché le decisioni in merito richiederebbero maggioranze qualificate.

Un primo grande problema è costituito dalla difesa dello stato. Il Giappone ha forze armate del tutto inadeguate e non dispone di armamento atomico per costituzione. Ma ciò che poteva avere un senso settanta anni fa sembrerebbe non averlo più ora. La Cina è emersa come superpotenza economica e militare. Essa non costituisce una minaccia al Giappone, però c’è, e quindi un nuovo equilibrio di forze sarebbe auspicabile. Poi, sicuramente il Giappone è protetto da trattati militari, ma tutti sappiamo come i trattati siano pezzi di carta che hanno valore solo se sostenuti da un forte esercito.

Un secondo grande problema è costituito da un debito pubblico straripante, che tutti si affannano a ripetere che sia utile e benefico, ma che nei fatti pesa come un macigno. È innegabile quanto questo aspetto possa condizionare un riarmamento giapponese.

Un terzo grande problema è quello demografico. A fronte di una mortalità del 9.6 per mille, si evidenzia un tasso di natalità del 7.8 per mille. Il tasso di fertilità si attesta a 1.41, mentre l’attesa di vita sfiora gli 83.84 anni. Il saldo è quindi negativo. Più ancora che il futuro calo della popolazione, interessa lo squilibrio tra anziani e giovani, essendo questi ultimi coloro che alla fine pagano le pensioni. Ma senza giovani è impossibile costituire un esercito.

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Il Giappone è un paese di vecchi: il 27.28% della popolazione è over 65. Sarà ben difficile che riesca a riprendersi.


Nikkei Asian Review. 2017-10-21. Abe’s coalition seen near supermajority in Japan election poll

TOKYO — As the campaign for Sunday’s general election enters its final stretch, new polling shows Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s ruling coalition on track to win around 300 of the 465 seats in the Diet’s lower house, while Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike’s upstart Party of Hope has lost much of its initial momentum.

But The Nikkei Inc. survey indicates that some uncertainty remains on the eve of the Japanese election, with 23% of the 289 single-seat constituencies and 16% of the 176 proportional-representation seats still considered close races.

LDP firmly in front

The poll, conducted Tuesday through Thursday, finds 207 single-seat districts and 55 proportional-representation seats leaning toward or strongly favoring Abe’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party, roughly the same as in an Oct. 10-11 poll conducted as campaigning officially began. The party held 290 seats before Abe dissolved the lower house in September for the snap election.

Junior coalition partner Komeito looks to reach 35 seats, up one from the earlier survey and an increase of one seat from the party’s previous standing in the lower house.

The poll suggests the coalition may capture 63.9% of the chamber, down from 68.2% before the election. This would leave it just short of the 310 seats — a two-thirds supermajority — needed to advance Abe’s goal of revising Japan’s pacifist constitution to formally acknowledge the role of the country’s Self-Defense Forces. The coalition would be forced to seek opposition support, and how that proceeds would depend on which party gains the upper hand in the opposition.

The Party of Hope — or Kibo no To — which picked up many candidates from the former Democratic Party in an effective merger, was favored in the earlier poll to lead the opposition, with 69 seats. But the party has failed to gain widespread support, owing partly to Koike’s comments about “excluding” Democratic lawmakers deemed too liberal. The governor acknowledged in a news conference Thursday that her phrasing “may have been harsh.” The latest survey shows her party winning just 55 seats — fewer than its individual members held before the election.

The left-leaning Constitutional Democratic Party, which includes many of those former Democrats left out by the Party of Hope, is rapidly catching up. The party’s projected seat total has risen from 45 to 54 as it attracts more of the opposition interest away from the Party of Hope. The Constitutional Democrats, headed by Yukio Edano — who served as chief cabinet secretary in a former Democratic Party of Japan government, could become the second-largest party in the lower house.

The Japanese Communist Party looks set to lose three seats, bringing its total to 18, while the Japan Innovation Party would drop from 14 to 10 amid struggles in its main support base of Osaka.

Independents are expected to take 30 seats, up from 28 in the earlier poll. The gains likely owe to growing support for former Democrats who chose not to join the Party of Hope.

Koike’s Party of Hope sheds support as liberal rivals gain ground: Nikkei survey

The poll was conducted by Nikkei Research via random-digit dialing. Roughly 45,000 eligible voters participated for a response rate of 60.1%.

Hope fades as forsaken liberals rise

The survey results suggest that the opposition’s failure to present a united front against the ruling coalition has hit the Party of Hope hardest. The LDP has pulled well ahead of the party in 13 districts previously considered battlegrounds, nearly all of which had at least two opposition candidates splitting the anti-Abe vote.

The upstart party is foundering even in Tokyo, where Koike’s local party Tomin First no Kai trounced the LDP in the July metropolitan assembly election. The Party of Hope is not strongly favored to win in any of the capital’s 25 single-seat districts, and it is seen as having the upper hand in only two. The governor’s association with the party does not seem to be drawing unaffiliated voters as hoped.

The rise of the Constitutional Democrats is causing problems for the Party of Hope as well. In Tokyo’s 10th district, once represented by Koike herself in the lower house, support for the Party of Hope candidate slumped by 9 points between the two polls, with the LDP and Constitutional Democratic contenders competing for those votes.

Koike circulated a manifesto to her party’s candidates Thursday casting the Party of Hope as a healthy, “reformist conservative” alternative to an LDP focused on protecting its own interests and a Constitutional Democratic Party veering steadily to the left.

A survey of party support showed the LDP leading with 38%, followed by the Constitutional Democrats at 15%, the Party of Hope at 10% and Komeito and the Communist Party tied at 5%. Yet despite the ruling party’s commanding lead, 47% of respondents disapproved of the current cabinet while only 38% approved.

Annunci
Pubblicato in: Demografia, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Finlandia. Tanto per mettere un dito nell’occhio a liberal e socialisti.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-10-05.

Buchmalerei im Codex Buranus. Das Schicksalsrad

Buchmalerei im Codex Buranus: Das Schicksalsrad.


O Fortuna / velut luna

statu variabilis, /

semper crescis / aut decrescis;

vita detestabilis / nunc obdurat

et tunc curat / ludo mentis aciem,

egestatem, / potestatem

dissolvit ut glaciem.


La Finlandia ha 5,489,322 abitanti. Se il pil nominale procapite ammonta a 45,635 Usd, il pil ppa procapite è invece 35,771 Usd, causa un elevato costo della vita.

Wikipedia riporta un tasso di fecondità di 1.9, verosimilmente grossolano errore di battuta: il tasso di fertilità appurato dall’Istituto Centrale di Statistica finlandese è 1,57.

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Statistics Finland è istituto molto serio e puntiglioso nella descrizione dei metodi usati e nelle definizioni date.

Births.

«The statistics on births contain all the children whose mother was permanently resident in Finland at the time of their birth. The statistics contain data on the child, mother and the mother’s spouse. ….

A child is recorded in statistics as having been born in Finland if the mother is registered as permanently resident in Finland at the time of the birth even if she were abroad at that time. ….

The variables included in the statistics on births include gender and whether the child was born in a currently valid marriage or outside marriage, month of birth, municipality of birth, country of birth, nationality and language»

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Fall in the number of births even steeper

«According to Statistics Finland’s data on population changes, 52,814 children were born in 2016. The number of births has now decreased for the sixth year in succession. The number of births was 2,658 children, i.e. 4.8 per cent fewer than in 2015. This yearly decrease is the highest since the beginning of the 1970s, when measured in relative terms.»

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Death.

«In 2016, a total of 53,923 persons died, which is the largest number since 1944. The previous record year after the 1940s was 2015, from which the number of deaths now grew by another 1,431. Altogether, 501 more women and 930 more men died than in 2015»

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«The Finnish birth rate is just 1.57 children per woman, the lowest since the great famine of 1868.»

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«just as in Bernie Madoff’s get-rich-quick scheme, paying benefits to today’s investors (i.e., taxpayers) requires finding new suckers tomorrow»

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«the retirement system is every bit as much of a Ponzi scheme»

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«The Finnish welfare state, like many of those in the West, was primarily erected during the post-World War II baby boom, when the number of people dependent on the government was few and dozens of future taxpayers were being born every day»

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«Today, with the Nordic countries’ lowest ratio of youths to the working-age population and highest rate of old-age dependency»

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«Finland is discovering the truth in Margaret Thatcher’s assertion that socialists “always run out of other people’s money.”»

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«living at others’ expense»

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«The healthcare system is severely inefficient and costly, and stands in the way of normal people’s access to the truly great medical care provided by the private sector. The public education is also very costly and constantly short of money …. The idea of everyone’s right to a university degree has resulted in a very high number of university graduates, but their degrees are often of no value on the job market …. »

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«The national debt has already reached alarming levels»

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Ma il problema non si ferma mica qui.

Come dopo le elezioni tedesche non si trova manco un cane rognoso che ammetta di aver votato socialista, così anche Antti Rinne, boss del partito socialdemocratico è caduto sulla via di Damasco, voltando gabbana alla velocità della luce.

Leggete un po’ qua.

«Antti Rinne, the chairperson of the Social Democratic Party, has caused a ruckus by encouraging Finns to reproduce.»

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«This is a very serious issue. No nation can develop itself unless there are new generations to secure its future»

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«Rinne’s comments stirred up controversy on social media and apparent unease among his party comrades due to his rather questionable choice of words»

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«Rinne argued that the historically low birth rate necessitates the adoption of a comprehensive strategy on family policy. The baby boomers, he reminded, were encouraged to reproduce with the slogan “fourth one for the homeland”»

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«Jiska Gröhn, the chairperson of the Christian Democratic Youth of Finland, contrastively lauded the opposition leader for his efforts to encourage discussion on an important issue»

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«The next generation always pays the pensions of the previous one. Who will pay your pension?»

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«reforming the family leave system»

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I socialdemocratici finlandesi sono sempre stati sostenitori accesi del controllo delle nascite e dell’aborto. Sono stati causa efficiente dello smantellamento dell’istituto familiare, con separazione e divorzio quali atti dovuti a sola richiesta di parte. Femmine esclusivamente in carriera: doppio petto gessato, ottantesimo piano di un grattacielo, tre milioni al mese di stipendio. Famiglia e figli pesi orrifici da evitarsi come la peste.

E moh, Antti Rinne sembrerebbe aver mutato idea in modo radicale.

Vatti a fidare del socialisti ideologici: presi a cannonate si convertono. Dicono di essersi convertiti. Basta pillola contraccettiva, basta pilloa del giorno dopo, basta spirale uterina, basta aborto, diritto di famiglia ripristinato. Non li si riconosce più.

Non fan più quei bei socialisti di una volta. Ma noi abbiamo memoria buona: molto buona.


New American. 2017-09-23. Baby Bust Threatens Finland’s Already Precarious Welfare State

Finland, once proclaimed the best country in the world by Newsweek because of its lavish welfare state, is now facing the same crisis besetting all other welfare states: too many tax-eaters and too few taxpayers.

According to Bloomberg, the root of the problem is that Finns aren’t procreating enough. The Finnish birth rate is just 1.57 children per woman, the lowest since the great famine of 1868. It needs to be at least two per woman to keep the welfare state afloat, Aktia Bank chief economist Heidi Schauman told Bloomberg. “We have a large public sector and the system needs taxpayers in the future,” she explained.

In other words, just as in Bernie Madoff’s get-rich-quick scheme, paying benefits to today’s investors (i.e., taxpayers) requires finding new suckers tomorrow.

The Finnish welfare state, like many of those in the West, was primarily erected during the post-World War II baby boom, when the number of people dependent on the government was few and dozens of future taxpayers were being born every day. Also like most welfare states, it started out small and grew to offer greater benefits to ever more beneficiaries over time. Bloomberg mentions the country’s “famous baby-boxes,” which started out as simple care packages for the poor but eventually came to “include all sorts of goodies” and were distributed to all families, regardless of income.

Today, with the Nordic countries’ lowest ratio of youths to the working-age population and highest rate of old-age dependency, Finland is discovering the truth in Margaret Thatcher’s assertion that socialists “always run out of other people’s money.” It is also learning that massive welfare states, contrary to progressives’ pie-in-the-sky pronouncements, invariably mean lower standards of living for everyone: The European Commission expects Finland’s annual economic growth to peak at 1.9 percent in 2035, then fall to 1.5 percent, where it will remain for a decade.

Bloomberg, which finds the current birthrate “surprisingly low … given the efforts made by the state to support parenthood” — doesn’t every government program produce the opposite of its stated intentions? — suggests that the solution to Finland’s crisis is still more government intervention. Schauman herself argued that “what Finland really needs is a political program that treasures the family and increases the value of parenthood.”

But what if the problem isn’t too few babies but too many government dependents? After all, even if Finland were somehow to discover a couple million new taxpayers tomorrow — the country’s population is about 5.5 million — that would only put off the day of reckoning until those people either died or dropped out of the workforce in favor of living at others’ expense.

No, the real problem with Finland’s welfare state is spending, as Finnish tax adviser Kaj Grussner explained in a 2010 article:

«The Finnish welfare state comes at a price we can’t afford. The healthcare system is severely inefficient and costly, and stands in the way of normal people’s access to the truly great medical care provided by the private sector. The public education is also very costly and constantly short of money. Textbooks are passed on from generation to generation, everybody learning the same fallacies as the ones before them, provided that books are even readable.

The idea of everyone’s right to a university degree has resulted in a very high number of university graduates, but their degrees are often of no value on the job market. Due to high taxes and both the legal and financial risks of employing people, an 8 percent unemployment rate is considered normal. And did I mention that the retirement system is every bit as much of a Ponzi scheme as the US Social Security system, and is on the verge of collapse?

The national debt has already reached alarming levels…. Bankruptcy will come unless significant changes are made.»

Those “significant changes” most emphatically do not include more government programs aimed at encouraging procreation or exhortations that reproduction is a patriotic duty. Instead, they entail slashing spending and taxes; getting the government out of education, healthcare, and other sectors; and letting Finns decide for themselves how many children to have. That way leads to liberty and prosperity. Finland’s present course is, unfortunately, the road to serfdom.

Bloomberg. 2017-09-23. Finland’s Welfare State Has a Massive Baby Problem

The number of newborns has fallen to its lowest level in 148 years.

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You know you’ve got a problem when even the best don’t have the solution.

Finland, a first-rate place in which to be a mother, has registered the lowest number of newborns in nearly 150 years. The birth rate has been falling steadily since the start of the decade, and there’s little to suggest a reversal in the trend. 

Demographics are a concern across the developed world, of course. But they are particularly problematic for countries with a generous welfare state, since they endanger its long-term survival.

For Heidi Schauman, the statistics are “frightening.”

“They show how fast our society is changing, and we don’t have solutions ready to stop the development,” the Aktia Bank chief economist said in a telephone interview in Helsinki. “We have a large public sector and the system needs taxpayers in the future.”

To do that, the fertility rate should equal two per woman, Schauman says. It was projected at 1.57 in 2016, according to Statistics Finland.

That’s a surprisingly low level, given the efforts made by the state to support parenthood.

Perhaps nothing illustrates those better than Finland’s famous baby-boxes. Introduced in 1937, containers full of baby clothes and care products are delivered to expectant mothers, with the cardboard boxes doubling up as a makeshift cot. The idea behind the maternity packages was prompted by concerns over high infant mortality rates in low-income families. The starter kits were eventually extended to all families.

Offering generous parental leave and one of the best education system in the world doesn’t seem to be working either. According to the OECD, Finland already has the lowest ratio of youths to the working-age population in the Nordics.

The situation is only likely to get worse, according to OECD projections.

The European Commission says demographic factors are limiting Finland’s economic growth potential, which is estimated to peak at 1.9 percent in 2035 and flatten at 1.5 percent between 2050 and 2060.

What to do?

Reversing the modern idea that it’s ok not to have kids is impracticable. Opening the doors to immigrants is a political no-go area (Prime Minister Juha Sipila’s center-right government relies on the support of nationalist lawmakers). The leader of the opposition Social Democrats, Antti Rinne, caused a stir in August when he urged women to fulfill their patriotic duty and have more babies.

The government has been working with employers and trade unions to boost gender equality by making parental leave more flexible and the benefits system simpler. The reforms are expected to come into force in 2019.

Schauman believes that won’t be enough.

“The discussion has revolved around gender equality and the employment of women, with the issue of natality sent to the background,” she said. What Finland really needs is a political program that treasures the family and increases the value of parenthood, the economist argued.

The baby boxes that are delivered to expectant mothers contain all sorts of goodies. They include bodysuits, leggings, mittens, bra pads, talcum powder, lubricant, a hairbrush and a bath thermometer.

One suggestion is to leave out the condoms.

Helsinki Times. 2017-09-23. Rinne provokes controversy by encouraging Finns to reproduce

The Social Democratic Party’s chairperson, Antti Rinne (left), and two deputy chairpersons, Sanna Marin (centre) and Maarit Feldt-Ranta, took part in the opposition party’s summer convention in Kouvola on 23 August, 2017.

Antti Rinne, the chairperson of the Social Democratic Party, has caused a ruckus by encouraging Finns to reproduce.

“This year, fewer than 50,000 children will be born in Finland for the first time since the famine years of the 1860s,” he was quoted as saying by Helsingin Sanomat at the summer convention of the Social Democrats in Kouvola on Wednesday.

“This is a very serious issue. No nation can develop itself unless there are new generations to secure its future.”

Rinne’s comments stirred up controversy on social media and apparent unease among his party comrades due to his rather questionable choice of words. He encouraged the public to participate in talkoot, a Finnish term for a traditional form of neighbourly help that is associated with a strong sense of community.

The number of births has decreased for six consecutive years in Finland, most recently by over 2,800 to roughly 52,500 between 2015 and 2016. The number of births recorded last year was the lowest since the country gained independence in 1917.

Rinne argued that the historically low birth rate necessitates the adoption of a comprehensive strategy on family policy. The baby boomers, he reminded, were encouraged to reproduce with the slogan “fourth one for the homeland”.

“It’s self-evident that parties don’t get to decide what goes on in bedrooms also in this respect, but we can erase the concerns people have about starting a family,” he said according to Helsingin Sanomat.

While many admitted that the low birth rate is a concern, the rhetoric employed by the opposition leader was widely deemed questionable.

Liisa Jaakonsaari (SDP), a Member of the European Parliament, tweeted that the term synnytystalkoot brings to mind national socialism and the Third Reich.

Sanna Marin, a deputy chairperson of the Social Democrats, reminded that the party is an advocate of abolishing daycare fees, reforming the parental leave system and improving the financial situation of families with children, but estimated that synnytystalkoot was a wretched choice of words.

Jiska Gröhn, the chairperson of the Christian Democratic Youth of Finland, contrastively lauded the opposition leader for his efforts to encourage discussion on an important issue.

“The choice of words was poor, and now we are witnessing the consequences. The danger, however, is that this important issue is ignored completely. The baby is thrown out with the bathwater,” he wrote in a blog on Puheenvuoro on Thursday.

“Our skewed demographic development is one of the most crucial questions for our 100-year-old home country. The next generation always pays the pensions of the previous one. Who will pay your pension?” asked Gröhn.

The Social Democratic Party on Thursday responded to the controversy by presenting six measures to improve the well-being of families: reforming the family leave system, raising the enrolment rate in early-childhood education, introducing hobbies to the school day, lengthening compulsory education to 12 years, developing the occupational skills of working-age people, and increasing affordable housing production especially in population centres.

Rinne, in turn, said he had deliberately chosen an outdated word because his previous attempts to generate discussion on the issue had proven unsuccessful.

“It may sound outdated and it may have been poorly chosen, but I was annoyed that I was unable to get the message across earlier. I thought that I should use a word that encapsulates the problem and receives attention,” he explained to Helsingin Sanomat.

Pubblicato in: Demografia, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Sistemi Economici

India. Da paese emergente a paese emerso.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-09-20.

2017-09-19__India. Un continente in crescita.__001

«Gross Domestic Product of India grew 1.4% in the second quarter of 2017 compared to the previous quarter. This rate is 1-tenth of one percent higher than the figure of 1.3% published in the first quarter of 2017.

The year-on-year change in GDP was 5.9%, 1-tenth of one percent less than the 6% recorded in the first quarter of 2017.

The GDP figure in the second quarter of 2017 was $514,375 million, leaving India placed 6th in the ranking of quarterly GDP of the 50 countries that we publish.

India has a quarterly GDP per capita, of $428, $59 higher than the same quarter last year, it was.

If we order the countries according to their GDP per capita, India‘s population is the poorest of the 50 countries whose quarterly GDP we publish.

Here we show you the progression of the GDP in India. You can see GDP in other countries in GDP and see all the economic information about India in India’s economy.» [Fonte]

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Secondo il Cia World Factbook 2016, il pil ppa dell’India ammonterebbe a 9,489.302 miliardi Usd, 6,616 Usd di pil ppa pro capite.

Se nel 2000 il pil ammontava a 476.636 miliardi Usd, nel 2016 aveva raggiunto i 2,256.397 miliardi Usd: in sedici anni il pil nominale è aumentato di 4.73 volte. È un risultato lusinghiero, nonostante che l’India abbia passato periodi politicamente alquanto turbolenti. Da anni sta crescendo al ritmo del 6%.

L’articolista di Bloomberg, a nostro parere correttamente, evidenzia come concausa di questo vorticoso incremento il fattore demografico.

«India is poised to emerge as an economic superpower, driven in part by its young population, while China and the Asian Tigers age rapidly»

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«The number of people aged 65 and over in Asia will climb from 365 million today to more than half a billion in 2027, accounting for 60 percent of that age group globally by 2030»

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«India will account for more than half of the increase in Asia’s workforce in the coming decade, but this isn’t just a story of more workers: these new workers will be much better trained and educated than the existing Indian workforce»

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Si noti anche come il debito pubblico ammonti a 1,569 miliardi di Usd, con un rapporto debito/pil del 69.54%, in discesa rispetto agli anni precedenti.

In conclusione, l’India da paese emergente è diventato paese emerso e si avvia a diventare anch’essa una superopotenza economica. Ci metterà ancora una generazione, ma sembrerebbe essere sulla strada buona.




Bloomberg. 2017-09-18. Superpower India to Replace China as Growth Engine

India is poised to emerge as an economic superpower, driven in part by its young population, while China and the Asian Tigers age rapidly, according to Deloitte LLP.

The number of people aged 65 and over in Asia will climb from 365 million today to more than half a billion in 2027, accounting for 60 percent of that age group globally by 2030, Deloitte said in a report Monday. In contrast, India will drive the third great wave of Asia’s growth – following Japan and China — with a potential workforce set to climb from 885 million to 1.08 billion people in the next 20 years and hold above that for half a century.

“India will account for more than half of the increase in Asia’s workforce in the coming decade, but this isn’t just a story of more workers: these new workers will be much better trained and educated than the existing Indian workforce,’’  said Anis Chakravarty, economist at Deloitte India. “There will be rising economic potential coming alongside that, thanks to an increased share of women in the workforce, as well as an increased ability and interest in working for longer. The consequences for businesses are huge.’’

While the looming ‘Indian summer’ will last decades, it isn’t the only Asian economy set to surge. Indonesia and the Philippines also have relatively young populations, suggesting they’ll experience similar growth, says Deloitte. But the rise of India isn’t set in stone: if the right frameworks are not in place to sustain and promote growth, the burgeoning population could be faced with unemployment and become ripe for social unrest.

Deloitte names the countries that face the biggest challenges from the impact of ageing on growth as China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, Thailand and New Zealand. For Australia, the report says the impact will likely outstrip that of Japan, which has already been through decades of the challenges of getting older. But there are some advantages Down Under.

“Rare among rich nations, Australia has a track record of welcoming migrants to our shores,” said Ian Thatcher, deputy managing partner at Deloitte Asia Pacific.  “That leaves us less at risk of an ageing-related slowdown in the decades ahead.’’

Japan’s experience shows there are opportunities from ageing, too. Demand has risen in sectors such as nursing, consumer goods for the elderly, age-appropriate housing and social infrastructure, as well as asset management and insurance. 

But Asia will need to adjust to cope with a forecast 1 billion people aged 65 and over by 2050. This will require:

– Raising retirement ages: Encouraging this could help growth in nations at the forefront of ageing impacts.

– More women in the workforce: A direct lever that ageing nations can pull to boost their growth potential.

– Taking in migrants: Accepting young, high-skilled migrants can help ward off ageing impacts on growth. 

– Boosting productivity: Education and re-training to bolster growth opportunities offered by new technologies.

Pubblicato in: Demografia, Persona Umana, Storia e Letteratura

Winston Churchill di fronte alla storia.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-09-10.

Churchill Winston 001

Sir Winston Leonard Spencer Churchill è personalità umana e politica che ha dominato il secolo passato, indirizzandone il corso degli eventi.

Il 24 maggio del 1901, a 27 anni, fu iniziato alla Massoneria nella Loggia londinese Studholme nº1591 della Gran Loggia unita d’Inghilterra, ed il 10 settembre dello stesso anno ottenne la prima carica in tale associazione.

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Durante la prima guerra mondiale fu Primo Lord dell’Ammiragliato e Ministro delle Munizioni (il ministero che sovrintendeva alla produzione bellica), durante la seconda guerra mondiale è stato Primo ministro dal 1940 al 1945.

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L’iconografia classica lo riporta come il personaggio che difese strenuamente l’Inghilterra, portandola a vincere due consecutive guerre mondiali. Ne tratteggia il ritratto dell’eroe nazionale, ben degno dei funerali di stato.

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Ma adesso che i tempi sono maturati e l’oblio ha sepolto gli annosi rancori e timori, uno storico che cercasse di essere obbiettivo dovrebbe porsi una domanda, che prima non avrebbe potuto essere fatta.

Quando Churchill assunse la carica di Primo Lord dell’Ammiragliato l’Inghilterra aveva un Impero e rendeva conto del buon quaranta per cento del pil mondiale.

A fine della seconda guerra mondiale Churchill lasciò il Regno Unito deprivato dell’Impero faticosamente costruito dagli avi, e ridotta al ruolo di potenza locoregionale.

Le due guerre mondiali non solo non avevano rafforzato l’Impero inglese, ma lo avevano salassato di vite umane e di risorse economiche, riducendolo ad una larva di ciò che era prima.

Da questo punto di vista, Churchill è stato il becchino dell’Inghilterra. La ha spossata al punto tale da renderle impossibile sfruttare due così grandi vittorie.

Ma nella storia importa certo il vincere, ma se a questo non consegue il trarne frutto duraturo, tutto lo sforzo fatto si rivela inutile, ma spesso anche dannoso.

* * * * * * *

Si ponga grande attenzione.

I meriti o le colpe degli avi, dei padri, ricadono immancabilmente sui figli.

Se è vero che l’uomo è in gran parte artefice del proprio destino, è altrettanto vero che le circostanze oggettive ne condizionano grandemente ogni possibile aspirazione e comportamento.

Ogni generazione vive ed agisce nel contesto ereditato dai padri.

Dopo Cesare, i figli dei galli vissero come schiavi dei romani, che non usarono certo mano leggera.

La diaspora ebraica ha impiegato quasi duemila anni prima di poter ristabilire uno Stato di Israele: le colpe dei padri hanno in questo caso influenzato oltre sessanta generazioni.

* * * * * * *

Queste considerazioni non dovrebbero avere una sola pertinenza storica.

Ad oggi vi sono molti personaggi che vanno per la maggiore, osannati quasi al limite della idolatria, nominalmente rifondatori della patria, supportati da vasti consensi popolari.

Ma domani, ed il domani arriva sempre implacabile, quale sarà il giudizio su di essi?

Frau Merkel si sta avviando al quarto rinnovo nel cancellierato tedesco.

Governerà con mano rigida per altri quattro lunghi anni una nazione che vede ridursi giorno per giorno il numero dei suoi cittadini autoctoni. Una nazione sempre più vecchia.

La denatalità tedesca equivale al risultato di una terza guerra mondiale, ove i nipotini degli junker non nascono o, se sono concepiti, finiscono immediatamente sotto la mannaia dell’aborto. Ma senza materiale umano, non ha senso parlare di economia e finanza, ma nemmeno di arte e generazione del bello.

Germania. La demografia che stritola. Mancano tre milioni di lavoratori. – Vbw.

Germania. Non è povera. È misera. – Financial Times

Vi sarebbero forti dubbi che la storia esprima in futuro un giudizio lusinghiero su simile personaggio.

Pubblicato in: Demografia, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Germania. La demografia che stritola. Mancano tre milioni di lavoratori. – Vbw.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-09-07.

Neonato 008

Questo è l’unico rimedio noto alla denatalità.


La Associazione Industriali bavaresi (Vbw) ha recentemente pubblicato uno studio corposo quanto ambizioso:

«Arbeitslandschaft 2040»

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«Unsere aktuelle Studie Arbeitslandschaft 2040 zeigt: die Fachkräftesicherung bleibt eine zentrale Herausforderung für unser Land.»

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«Wenn die Unternehmen ihren Personalbedarf nicht decken können, leidet die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und in der Konsequenz die Wirtschaftskraft Deutschlands»

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«Für das Jahr 2040 wird immer noch einen Fachkräftelücke in Höhe von 3,9 Millionen Arbeitskräften erwartet»

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«Die deutsche Bevölkerung schrumpft und altert. Diese nicht mehr wirklich überraschende Erkenntnis hat erhebliche Auswirkungen auf die künftige Struktur des Arbeitsmarkts.

Denn der demografische Wandel führt dazu, dass die Zahl der Erwerbspersonen in Deutschland mittel- und langfristig schneller zurückgeht als die Bevölkerungszahl insgesamt.

Daran kann auch die in den letzten Jahren überdurchschnittlich hohe Nettozuwanderung nichts ändern. Ohnehin ist zu erwarten, dass die hohen Zuwanderungsströme nicht von Dauer sein werden. Die Arbeitslandschaft nimmt daher eine Nettozuwanderung in Höhe von 200.000 Personen pro Jahr über den Prognosezeitraum an.»

“La popolazione tedesca sta diminuendo e sta invecchiando. Questa constatazione non sorprendente ha un impatto significativo sulla futura struttura del mercato del lavoro.

Il cambiamento demografico sta portando ad una riduzione del numero di popolazione attiva in Germania a medio e lungo termine, più rapida della popolazione nel suo complesso.

L’immigrazione netta superiore alla media degli ultimi anni non può cambiare la situazione.

In ogni caso, è prevedibile che l’elevato afflusso di immigrati non sarà permanente.”.

* * * * * * *

«Germany will lack millions of skilled workers, technical and medical workers and researchers in the near future»

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«As a result of demographic change, the labour market situation will considerably worsen over the next 10 to 20 years»

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Cerchiamo di ragionare.

Se Frau Merkel importasse in Germania tutti i 191 milioni di nigeriani, sicuramente triplicherebbe il numero di persone presenti in Germania, ma allora la Germania parlerebbe la lingua hausa. Avrebbe risolto il numero dei residenti, ma certo non il loro livello qualitativo: è utopico pensare di rimpiazzare magistrati, imprenditori, ricercatori, medici, professori universitari, tecnici specializzati tedeschi con persone che non parlano la lingua ed hanno livelli di istruzione quasi nulli.

È la stessa conclusione cui giungono gli industriali bavaresi: “L’immigrazione netta superiore alla media degli ultimi anni non può cambiare la situazione

Germania. Incidenza economica del calo demografico. – Bloomberg.

Germania. Realtà geografica, non più umana, politica ed economica.

*

La contrazione della forza lavoro a specializzazione media oppure alta non potrà far altro che rallentare prima, e bloccare poi, il sistema economico produttivo tedesco, ed il tutto nel volgere di qualche lustro. Solo i nostri politici sembrerebbero non essersene accorti.

Ma statene pure ben certi: Mr Trump, Mr Putin e Mr Xi conoscono benissimo questi dati, e ne traggono le conseguenze.

Nota.

Una idea messa lì. Perchè non sostituire Frau Merkel con una marocchina appena arrivata? Oppure, con una ragazza turka?



The Local. 2017-09-02. Germany could lack 3 million skilled workers by 2030, study finds

Experts have made a gloomy prognosis: in 2030, Germany could be missing up to three million skilled workers.

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The study, conducted by research institute Prognos AG on behalf of the Bavarian Industry Association (vbw), predicts Germany will lack millions of skilled workers, technical and medical workers and researchers in the near future.

One of the main reasons for the imminent shortage, the study argues, is Germany’s ageing population as the number of people of working age is set to fall sharply.

“As a result of demographic change, the labour market situation will considerably worsen over the next 10 to 20 years,” said Oliver Ehrentraut, author of the study.

This is despite the steady influx of workers coming to Germany from abroad.

But job market experts and population researchers involved in the report believe it’s not too late to counter these findings, pointing to politics and the economy having the appropriate measures to prevent the deficit.

In order to close this gap in skilled labour, the researchers offer suggestions for urgent action.

Above all, vocational training must be promoted in a targeted manner, in order to help more young people obtain a professional qualification.

For people in the workplace, more effective training is needed to prepare them for new jobs that could arise with the arrival of technological advancements in factory halls.

After taking parental leave, women and men should be supported during the transition phase of returning to the workforce, the report argues. It also claims that older people should be motivated to work longer while part-time workers should be encouraged to extend their weekly working hours.

The Institute for Employment Research (IAB), does not currently see any gaps in Germany’s workforce, highlighting the existence of job shortages in only some sectors such as machine and automobile building and IT.

The Prognos AG report further foresees changes regarding the expertise needed in the workforce. With growing international competition and digitalization in almost all economic sectors, some professions are expected to lose importance.

The researchers also forecast that demand for jobs involved in security and surveillance activities will considerably decrease. Truck drivers, delivery attendants and packers could see their work done by robots and vending machines. The same applies to accountants, credit officers and real estate brokers, where electronic systems are likely to replace such jobs in the long term.

To a lesser extent, a shortage of managers, researchers, engineers, doctors, nurses and creatives and journalists is also predicted.

Pubblicato in: Demografia, Putin, Russia

Russia e la mutazione generazionale in Occidente.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-08-25

2.

Kremlino 003

Il Pew Research Center è uno dei pochi centri americani di ricerche economiche e sociali ragionevolmente obiettivo: gliene diamo atto con moto piacere.

Recentemente ha rilasciato lo studio

Publics Worldwide Unfavorable Toward Putin, Russia

Il sottotitolo è tuttavia ancor più significativo del titolo stesso:

«But few see Russian power and influence as a major threat»

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2018-08-22__Putin__001

Lo studio è lungo e complesso, ricco di grafici ed istogramma, motivo per cui non lo riportiamo, anche se suggeriremmo fortemente di leggerlo con cura.

«Around the world, few people trust Russian President Vladimir Putin to do the right thing when it comes to international affairs. A global median of roughly one-in-four (26%) say they have confidence in the Russian leader. Doubts about Putin’s handling of foreign policy, however, do not necessarily coincide with perceptions of Russia as a security risk. Across 37 countries, a median of 31% describe Russia’s power and influence as a major threat to their country – identical to the median percentage who say the same about China, and similar to the median share (35%) that sees America’s power and influence as a large threat.»

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«On balance, Russia’s international image is more negative than positive. Critical opinions of Russia are particularly widespread in the United States and Europe, while views are more mixed in the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. In only three countries surveyed do majorities express a favorable opinion of Russia: Vietnam (83%), Greece (64%) and the Philippines (55%).

Many people doubt the Russian government’s commitment to civil liberties. Globally, a median of 30% say Russia respects the rights of its citizens, compared with 46% who disagree and 17% who do not offer an opinion. Skepticism about the protection of personal freedoms in Russia is widespread in the U.S. and Europe. Views are mixed across the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and Latin America, while publics in sub-Saharan Africa are more convinced than not that the Russian government safeguards individual liberties at home.

These are among the major findings from a new Pew Research Center survey conducted among 40,951 respondents in 37 countries outside of Russia from Feb. 16 to May 8, 2017.»

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«Europeans are particularly harsh in their assessment of Putin, with a median in Europe of 78% expressing a lack of confidence in the leader. In the U.S. and Canada, few are confident in Putin’s global leadership, with more than three times as many people disliking Putin as liking him.

In a handful of nations (Vietnam, the Philippines, Tanzania and Greece), half or more are positive on Putin’s international performance. In other nations, many do not express any view of him: Roughly one-third or more in India, Indonesia, Ghana, Senegal, South Africa and Argentina do not share an opinion on the Russian leader.»

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«Though Putin and Russia receive low ratings across much of the world, few see Russian power and influence as a major threat to their nation. Russia is seen as far less threatening than other issues such as the Islamic State militant group (ISIS) and climate change in every nation surveyed except for Poland and Jordan. A global median of 31% say that Russian power poses a major threat to their nation, compared with 62% for ISIS, 61% for climate change and 51% for cyberattacks from other countries and for the condition of the global economy. In fact, among the eight threats tested, Russia’s power and influence is tied with that of China for last place (median of 31%).»

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«Generally, the Russian government is not seen as respecting the personal freedoms of its people. Across the 37 nations surveyed, a median of only 30% believe that Russia adheres to this tenet of democracy; that is lower than those who believe the same of France (60%, excluding France’s figures) and the U.S. (54%, excluding U.S. figures) but higher than for China (25%). …. »

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«In the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific, views vary among the countries polled. Majorities in Tunisia, Lebanon, Vietnam and the Philippines think Russia respects civil liberties, while publics elsewhere in these regions are split on the issue.»

* * * * * * *

Non stupisce minimamente che molti paesi, specie quelli incardinati nella Nato, possano vedere nella Russia ed in Mr Putin un potenziale avversario: la Russia è a tutti gli effetti una superpotenza, e come tale è percepita.

Né sarebbe logico che Mr Putin facesse gli interessi dell’Occidente a discapito della Russia, la sua Patria.

* * * * * * *

Tuttavia l’aspetto interessante, e che depone a favore della serietà dei ricercatori del Pew Center, è la seguente tabella.

2018-08-22__Putin__002

«Across many nations, older people are significantly less likely to view Russia favorably than their younger counterparts – and in no nation are younger people significantly more critical of Russia than the older generation. In 12 nations, those ages 50 and older hold much more negative views of Russia than those 18 to 29. The generation gap is most notable in Japan and Brazil (both reveal a 37-point generational gap on favorability of Russia), Australia (24 points) and South Korea (22 points). In 11 other nations, anywhere from 40% to nearly 60% of those 50 and older offer no opinion on Russia.

Men also tend to favor Russia more than women: In seven nations, the share of men who feel warmly about Russia is anywhere from 7 to 17 points higher than the share of women who feel the same way. This gender gap is most pronounced in France (17-point gap) and Germany (14 points).

The relationship between education level and views of Russia varies by region. In France, the U.S. and Sweden, those with lower levels of education are significantly more likely to feel favorably toward Russia. However, in Tunisia and Turkey, those with higher levels of education are more likely to feel favorably toward Russia.»

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In tutte le nazioni riportate i giovani (18-29) sono costantemente più favorevoli a Russia e Mr Putin rispetto alla classe anziana (50+). Queste differenze sono impressionanti.

Giappone +37, Brasile +37, Australia +24, Regno Unito +21, Germania +17, Stati Uniti +16.

Due sono le conseguenze.

Le persone anziane hanno una probabilità di decesso decisamente maggiore di quelle giovani. Con un calcolo approssimato a ±5, tra otto – dieci anni queste nazioni diventeranno favorevoli alla Russia ed a Mr Putin, od a chi lo abbia sostituito.

Negli Stati Uniti, altra superpotenza mondiale, il 40% dei giovani non vede nella Russia un pericolo contro il 25% degli anziani. Questo dato corrobora quello della stratificazione del voto presidenziale per classi di età: i giovani sono tendenzialmente repubblicani e gli anziani liberal democratici. Uno squilibrio destinato ad accentuarsi ed a pesare alle prossime elezioni.

Pubblicato in: Demografia

America. I numeri della mutazione in atto.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-08-20.

2017-08-20__America_Nascite__001

Il Pew Research Center ha recentemente rilasciato un interessante studio sulla popolazione degli Stati Uniti:

Statistical Portrait of the Foreign-Born Population in the United States

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Lo studio è lungo e complesso: ne estraiamo qui solo due Tabelle, la 10 e la 14.

2017-08-20__America_Nascite__002

La Tabella 10 mostra come nel 2015 gli Stati Uniti avessero una popolazione totale di 321,418,821 persone, delle quali 278,260,711 nate negli Usa e 43,158,110 nate in paesi esteri.

La Tabella 14 invece ci indica che nel 2015 il numero totale di donne che hanno avuto un figlio è 3,865,360, essendo 3,106,614 quelle nate negli Stati Uniti e 761,746 quelle nate in paesi esteri.

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Adesso calcoliamo tre semplici percentuali.

100 * 3,865,360 / 321,418,821 = 1.20%

100 * 3,106,614 / 278,260,711 = 1.12%

100 * 761,746 / 43,158,110 = 1.77%.

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Se sul totale della popolazione americana l’1.20% delle donne ha avuto un figlio, la percentuale nella popolazione nata negli Stati Uniti è 1.12% e quella nella popolazione nata all’estero è 1.77%.

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È evidente come le donne straniere abbiano una prolificità ben maggiore rispetto a quelle delle donne autoctone.

Il risultato sarebbe stato ben più severo se invece di aver ripartito la popolazione per nazione di nascita la si fosse ripartita per ascendenza.

In conclusione. La popolazione yankee sta avviandosi al declino sostenuto dalla carenza di nascite.

Le implicanze sociali, economiche e politiche dovrebbero esse auto evidenti.

Pubblicato in: Demografia

Giappone. Un nuovo sconcertante aspetto demografico.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-07-26.

Fallimento__1003

Del Giappone ci si è occupati più volte.

Giappone. Continua la lenta agonia.

Il Giappone è un paese di vecchi: l’età mediana è 46.9 anni. Non solo.

«Il 19.4% dei pensionati giapponesi versa in stato di povertà.»

Nel 2013 il pil pro capite ammontava a 37,100 Usd, ma nel 2015 ammontava a 32,486 Usd.     

Ma il cuore del problema risiede nel fatto che il tasso di fertilità è 1.27.

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In poche parole, il Giappone è destinato ad estinguersi, seguendo i tempi della demografia, ovviamente. È un fenomeno doloroso, molto doloroso: una lenta, implacabile agonia.

Adesso sorge un nuovo problema, che riassumiamo in schede auto esplicative. Una seconda catastofre che va a sovrapporti alla prima.

2017-07-12__Giappone__001

2017-07-12__Giappone__002

2017-07-12__Giappone__003

2017-07-12__Giappone__004

Pubblicato in: Criminalità Organizzata, Demografia, Unione Europea

Germania. Sassonia. La realtà travolge i tedeschi. Ed è solo l’inizio.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-07-17.

1483-1520__Raffaello__Massacro_degli_Innocenti_

Raffello. Il massacro degli innocenti.


La Germania è il grande malato dell’Unione Europea.

Al momento attuale ha ancora molto potere e molta potenza, la sua Bundeskanzlerin Frau Merkel sarà verosimilmente rinnovata nell’incarico conseguendo anche un grande risultato elettorale. Ma il destino tedesco è segnato.

Assomiglia ad un paziente con un cancro al polmone ancora in fase evolutiva: apparentemente sta bene, ma sarebbe ben facile previsione prevederne una lenta e sofferente agonia, culminante alla fine nell’exitus dopo inenarrabili dolori.

La gente comune stenta a rendersene conto, oppure ignora semplicemente il problema, ma sarebbe ben difficile comprendere gli sviluppi politici e militari di questi tempi senza comprendere che tutte le persone al potere, politici, imprenditori e militari, lo hanno invece molto ben presente.

I governanti del mondo, coloro che, se non altro per motivi di ufficio, devono prendere decisioni strategico, diciamo almeno sull’arco del decennio, lo hanno perfettamente e lucidamente presente.

La popolazione autoctona tedesca sta estinguendosi.

Sono venti anni che i demografi stanno dando avvisi su avvisi, warning su warning, ma senza risultato alcuno.

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Germania. Anche la Merkel piange. Wissmann: o si cambia o si fallisce.

Germania ed Islam. Deutsche Islam Konferenz.

Germania. I tedeschi ‘costernati’ stentano ad integrarsi con i turki.

Germania dell’est. Una realtà socio-economica in profonda crisi.

Germania. Bancarotta per chi si dichiarò garante degli immigrati.

Germania. Obiettivo raggiunto. I poveri sempre più poveri. Lo dice il Governo.

Germania. Summit in Cancelleria per l’allarme demografico.

Germania. 13 milioni di poveri e 330,000 famiglie con la luce tagliata.

Germania. Realtà geografica, non più umana, politica ed economica.

Germania. Incidenza economica del calo demografico. – Bloomberg.

Germania. Migranti. Arrivati 1.2 milioni. 34,000 al lavoro.

Germania. La Sharia si è instaurata de facto e funziona.

Germania. 4,392 migranti lavorano. Ma ne era arrivato più di un milione.

Germania. Il problema delle moschee salafite.

Germania. Migranti. 142,500 crimini nella prima metà 2016.

Germania. Genitori di scolari rinviati a giudizio per reato di opinione.

‘Cosa vuoi fare da grande, Abramino Levi?’. ‘Il musulmano in Germania’.

Germania. 549,209 richieste di asilo negate. Ma continuano a restare in Germania.

Germania. 2,137,000 immigrati nel 2015. Frattura tra Csu e Cdu.

Germania. Governo impone scorte causa probabile guerra civile.

Germania Saudita che avanza. Ecco quanto è araba la Germania.

Germania. Il grande malato di Europa che sta estinguendosi.

Germania. I tedeschi rivogliono l’Heimat.

Germania. Scuole professionali in crisi.

Germania. 12 milioni di indigenti.

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«Allein seit der Wiedervereinigung haben wir bis zu 850 000 Einwohner verloren.»

Dal momento della riunificazione abbiamo perso 850,000 persone.

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«Alle Prognosen besagen, dass dieser Minustrend anhalten wird, auch wenn sich die Bevölkerungsentwicklung zurzeit etwas durch die Flüchtlinge stabilisiert und zudem die Geburtenzahlen leicht steigen.»

Tutte le previsioni indicano che questo trend negativo proseguirà, anche se la crescita della popolazione è attualmente alquanto stabilizzato dai profughi ed anche il tasso di natalità è salito un pochino.

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«Auch eine höhere Zuwanderung aus anderen Bundesländern wird das Defizit auf Dauer nicht ausgleichen»

Anche un’immigrazione molto più qualificata da altri stati non potrebbe compensare questo deficit nel lungo periodo.

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«Im Zeitraum bis 2030 und darüber hinaus werden jedes Jahr in Sachsen rund 60 000 Menschen in Rente gehen, während gleichzeitig jährlich nur etwa 30 000 junge Leute neu in den Arbeitsmarkt eintreten»

Nel periodo fino al 2030 ed oltre, ogni anno andranno in Sassonia in pensione 60,000 persone, mentre ogni anno solo 30,000 giovani saranno disponibili al mercato del lavoro.

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«Wir stecken damit in einer gigantischen „Bevölkerungsfalle“ und das nicht nur, weil es überall zum Fachkräftemangel kommen wird.»

Siamo intrappolati in una gigantesca trappola demografica, anche perché mancheranno le competenze.

* * * * * * *

Subito dopo il disastro di Stalingrado Hitler diede ordine di ricostituire la sesta armata, andata completamente persa. Numericamente essa fu ricostituita con reclute giovanissime, molte delle quali provenienti da paesi occupati, e fu armata alla male peggio. Della vecchia sesta armata composta di veterani sperimentati ed armata al meglio dell’epoca era rimasto solo il sogno.

Lo stesso errore si ripete adesso in Germania sotto i nostri occhi.

Ce lo illustra il Ministro delle Finanze Sassone Georg Unland.

Quella crisi demografica di cui parlavano i demografi, svillaneggiati e vilipesi quasi fossero iettatori, non è più alle porte: c’è.

Il Ministro riporta come la Sassonia abbia già perso 850,000 abitanti, ma soprattutto non sa più a quale santo votarsi: fatto è che ogni anno vadano in pensione 60,000 tedeschi autoctoni ed i rincalzi siano solo 30,000.

Sempre il Ministro ammette, nel più puro politichese politicamente corretto, come sia impossibile sostituire giudici, professori universitari, primari medici, dirigenti di azienda, insegnanti scolastici, funzionari di banca e così via con immigrati analfabeti, senza competenze specifiche e che non parlano una parola di tedesco.

Se la situazione non fosse tragica, sarebbe da sghignazzare.

Tutto lo stato sassone e la sua amministrazione ne sarà sconvolta. E lo sarà sempre più profondamente ogni anno che passi. Si preannuncia un’agonia lenta e dolorosa, che avrà un punto di viraggio quando la popolazione musulmana supererà quella autoctona, potendo quindi prendere il potere e togliersi tutti i sassolini, per non dire massi, dalle scarpe. L’eccidio di Schio sembrerà roba da dilettanti. I superstiti tedeschi rimpiangeranno amaramente l’Holodomor.

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Il grottesco della situazione tedesca è che ora parliamo della Sassonia perché il Ministro Unland è stato il primo ad avere il coraggio di parlare di questo argomento. Ma tutto il resto della Germania è nella stessa ed identica situazione, se non peggio.

Frau Merkel ritornerà nuovamente al potere, certo, ma alla fine governerà un cimitero: si ripete la storia di Stalingrado ma questa volta la sesta armata non sarà ricostituita.

Il vero problema non emergerà con l’estinzione della stirpe germanica, bensì quando finalmente i tedeschi autoctoni inizieranno a capire l’esistenza del problema demografico, iniziando a pagarlo sulla propria pelle.

Allora sì diventeranno furibondi contro sé e gli altri, ed i tedeschi furibondi sono capaci di qualsiasi nefandezza.

Se negli anni trenta Hitler era osannato, dopo il 1945 fu maledetto.

Se ora Frau Merkel è riverita ed osannata, tra qualche tempo sarà esecrata e maledetta.

Alles kaputt.

Pagheranno ad usura di non aver procreato.


Sächsische Zeitung. 2017-06-22. So fahren wir den Staat gegen die Wand

Sachsens Finanzminister Georg Unland wehrt gegen immer mehr Landespersonal für immer weniger Sachsen. Das Interview:

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Dresden. Trotz der regelmäßigen Erfolgsmeldungen über rasant steigende Steuereinnahmen fordert Sachsens Finanzminister eine zügige Kehrtwende bei der Personalpolitik des Freistaates. Auf Dauer könne sich das Land Sachsen die Zahl von derzeit 86 000 Beschäftigten nicht leisten, warnt Georg Unland (CDU). Der Grund dafür ist aus seiner Sicht nicht nur das Geld:

Herr Minister, aus aktuellem Anlass: Sind Sie ein übervorsichtiger oder sogar ein ängstlicher Typ?

Also vorsichtig bin ich grundsätzlich. Ängstlich mit Sicherheit nicht. Sonst hätte ich viele Berufe, die ich in meinem Leben ausgeübt habe, nicht machen dürfen. Auch den aktuellen nicht.

Bleiben wir also bei vorsichtig – ist das der Grund dafür, dass Sie auch nach den nun fast schon zehn Jahre anhaltenden Rekordeinnahmen des Landes weiter aufs Sparpedal treten wollen?

Nein, das hat mehr damit zu tun, dass man im Leben schon andere Erfahrungen gemacht hat. Ich kann mich jedenfalls noch sehr gut an die Finanzkrise von 2008 erinnern. Was danach kam, war ein Schockerlebnis. Wir wussten zunächst nicht, wie weiter. Und das prägt natürlich.

Trotzdem, der Freistaat verfügt im Moment über einen Rekordetat, auch für die kommenden Jahren werden Zusatzeinnahmen erwartet. Wie erklärt man da dem Bürger, das Geld reicht nicht für mehr Lehrer oder mehr Polizisten?

Ich glaube, wir führen in Sachsen bei dem Punkt nicht die richtige Diskussion. Wir meinen, immer alles auf noch mehr Geld reduzieren zu müssen. Das ist aber sehr einseitig und geht an den grundlegenden Problemen in diesem Land vorbei. Eines davon ist die Demografie und damit der Bevölkerungsrückgang. Allein seit der Wiedervereinigung haben wir bis zu 850 000 Einwohner verloren. Alle Prognosen besagen, dass dieser Minustrend anhalten wird, auch wenn sich die Bevölkerungsentwicklung zurzeit etwas durch die Flüchtlinge stabilisiert und zudem die Geburtenzahlen leicht steigen. Auch eine höhere Zuwanderung aus anderen Bundesländern wird das Defizit auf Dauer nicht ausgleichen.

Entscheidend ist aber etwas anderes: Nämlich nicht die absolute Zahl der Menschen, die in Sachsen leben, sondern der relative Anteil an der Gesamtbevölkerung in Deutschland. Da wir in vielen westlichen Bundesländern einen deutlichen Bevölkerungszuwachs haben, in Sachsen aber nicht, wird der relative Anteil der Sachsen an der bundesdeutschen Bevölkerung spürbar abnehmen. Ein Phänomen, das hierzulande noch viele unterschätzen. Eine gravierende Folge davon ist aber, dass uns künftig immer weniger Zuschüsse vom Bund und aus dem Länderfinanzausgleich zustehen, unsere nach wie vor wichtigsten Einnahmequellen neben den Steuern. Ein akutes Problem, das völlig offen liegt und leider öffentlich kaum diskutiert wird.

Sachsen muss also mit deutlichen Einschränkungen bei den Finanzhilfen rechnen. Ist dies das einzige Problem?

Leider nicht, weshalb ich die aktuellen Debatten über mehr Personal im sächsischen Staatsdienst auch für so verfehlt halte. Das andere Problem ist die Altersstruktur unserer Bevölkerung. Im Zeitraum bis 2030 und darüber hinaus werden jedes Jahr in Sachsen rund 60 000 Menschen in Rente gehen, während gleichzeitig jährlich nur etwa 30 000 junge Leute neu in den Arbeitsmarkt eintreten. Wir stecken damit in einer gigantischen „Bevölkerungsfalle“ und das nicht nur, weil es überall zum Fachkräftemangel kommen wird.

Wo liegt da konkret die Gefahr?

Wenn wir im öffentlichen Dienst jetzt weiter jede frei werdende Stelle 1:1 wiederbesetzen oder Forderungen nach noch mehr Lehrer- oder Polizeistellen nachkommen, führt das angesichts der sinkenden Bevölkerungszahl automatisch zu einer höheren Staatsquote – der Anteil der Landesbediensteten an den immer weniger werdenden Steuerzahlern steigt. Während also Sachsens Industrie und Handwerk damit noch mehr Nachwuchsprobleme bekommen, würden wir auf eine Staatsbeschäftigungsquote von 20 bis 25 Prozent zusteuern – heute liegen wir bei knapp über 10 Prozent. Das ist das Hauptproblem, welches wir zügig angehen müssen, und hat viel stärkere Auswirkungen, als sich jeden Tag Gedanken zu machen, wo wir eine Million Euro mehr oder weniger ausgeben.

Das heißt, der Freistaat darf ab sofort kein zusätzliches Personal mehr einstellen und muss gleichzeitig Stellen abbauen. Woran denken Sie dabei?

Es geht nicht um Auf- oder Abbau, wir werden kräftig umbauen müssen. In jedem Bereich muss geprüft werden, wo kann man rationalisieren, wo kann man optimieren und wo muss man den Personalbestand sogar aufstocken? Im Pflege- und Sozialbereich wird beispielsweise angesichts der Altersstruktur der Bevölkerung zukünftig zusätzliches Personal benötigt. Wir brauchen dort definitiv mehr Leute, die unseren älteren Menschen helfen. Beim Stichwort Rationalisieren – also mit weniger Leuten das Gleiche oder mehr erreichen – fällt mir die eigene Steuerverwaltung ein, wo die Digitalisierung viele neue Möglichkeiten dafür schafft. Optimieren kann man wiederum fast überall, auch im Schulsystem. Nehmen wir nur mal den aktuellen Klassenteiler von 28 Schülern. Natürlich wäre es unsinnig, den wahllos nach oben zu legen. Aber ob dort 28 oder vielleicht auch einmal 30 Schüler sitzen, das bestätigten alle Gutachten, die ich kenne, hat keine Auswirkungen. Vielmehr kommt es immer auf den Lehrer an, der vor der Klasse steht. Wenn wir diesen Umbau jetzt aber nicht anpacken, sondern immer nur nach mehr Personal rufen, davon bin ich überzeugt, fahren wir den Staat gegen die Wand.

Für Sie ist das ein zwingender Weg, in der Öffentlichkeit sind solche Maßnahmen aber absehbar unpopulär. Wen wissen Sie denn eigentlich bei diesem Projekt hinter sich?

Das Datenmaterial, das wir analysiert haben, ist für jeden öffentlich verfügbar.

Das heißt, Sie stehen bislang mit Ihren Forderungen allein da?

Nein, es gibt viele, mit denen ich das diskutiere. Ganz allein fühle ich mich absolut nicht. Als Finanzminister muss ich jetzt aber öffentlich auf die Konsequenzen hinweisen. Wenn wir hier nicht gegensteuern, werden wir eine doppelt so hohe Staatsquote bekommen wie bisher. Und genau das wird in unserer Gesellschaft definitiv nicht funktionieren.

Sie sind Minister mit CDU-Parteibuch. Ihr derzeitiger Koalitionspartner SPD meint allerdings, dass es angesichts der guten Einnahmen durchaus Spielräume für mehr Personal gibt, und ist fest gewillt, diese auch zu nutzen.

Solche politischen Prozesse laufen nie kurzfristig ab. Man braucht da auch einmal Geduld und Zeit, bis sich die allgemeine Erkenntnis durchgesetzt hat, dass man hier gegensteuern muss. Ich erwarte daher nicht, dass von einem zum anderen Tag der Schalter umgelegt wird. Ich bin mir aber sicher, der notwendige Druck wird zuguterletzt aus der Bevölkerung kommen, wenn man dort merkt, dass überall Leute im Handwerk und der Wirtschaft fehlen und welche konkreten Auswirkungen das hat. Wenn der Staat der Wirtschaft zunehmend die Fachkräfte wegnimmt, dann sägt er an dem Ast, auf dem er sitzt.

Derzeit hat Sachsen gut 86 000 Landesbeschäftigte. Frühere Pläne, die Stellenzahl auf 70 000 zu senken, wurden wieder verworfen. Sind die 70 000 nun doch wieder die neue Zielmarke?

Wir werden die Diskussion, wie viel Personal sich der Freistaat leisten kann, wieder aufnehmen müssen. Und die künftige Gesamtzahl wird nicht mehr, sondern weniger sein. Worauf man sich letztlich verständigt, wird das Ergebnis einer politischen Willensbildung sein. Meine persönliche Einschätzung ist, dass die einstige Zielmarke von 70 000 für die Zukunft nicht ausreichen wird.

Sie meinen, es müssten sogar noch weniger Stellen werden?

Wenn man langfristig denkt – und damit meine ich nicht nur die nächsten drei bis vier Jahren – dann auf jeden Fall ja.

Wird dieser Sparkurs schon im neuen Doppelhaushalt für 2019/2020 zu spüren sein? Werden dort also keine weiteren Personalaufstockungen bei Lehrern oder Polizisten zu finden sein?

Davon bin ich überzeugt. Wir können nicht mehr oben drauflegen. Wir werden umbauen müssen und die dafür nötige Diskussion ist keine über die Ressource Geld, sondern eine über die Ressource Mensch.

Pubblicato in: Demografia, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Migranti. Austria pronta a schierare esercito al confine italiano.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-07-04.

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Il 22 settembre si terranno in Germania le elezioni politiche per il governo federale, mentre il 15 ottobre sarà l’Austria ad essere chiamata alle urne.

Il problema dei migranti che continuano ad arrivare illegalmente a getto continuo esiste, ed è ben concreto.

I Governi europei sono i diretti responsabili, perché tollerano, sempre quando non patrocinino, il reclutamento dei migranti in Africa ed il sistema di navi delle più disparate ong che li raccolgono sui litorali libici per poi portarli tranquilli sul continente.

Compreso questo, risulta chiaro come qualsiasi iniziativa presa a cercare di bloccare l’afflusso sia del tutto inconsistente.

Ora, per evidenti motivazioni elettorali, l’Austria annuncia per bocca del Ministro della Difesa di Vienna, Hans Peter Doskozil, che potrebbe schierare l’esercito al Brennero. Mossa plateale sicuramente, ma inconsistente. Tanto poi la Unione Europea li obbligherà a recepirli pro quota.

Di questi giorni la notizia che i migranti hanno superato per numero gli autoctoni a Frankfurt.

Se si cercasse di non disperdersi in dettagli, utili da conoscersi ma irrilevanti dal punto di vista strategico, le conclusioni sembrerebbero essere semplici. Nella fascia di età lavorativa, 25 – 65 anni, i migranti stanno lentamente ma costantemente aumentando e di questo ritmo tra sette – dieci anni saranno la maggioranza. Deceduta alla fine la quota ora anziana, sopra i 65 anni, quasi esclusivamente autoctona, la Germania si ritroverà a maggioranza islamica.

In altri termini, la parola “Germania” diventerà un nome geografico cui non corrisponderebbe più il popolo tedesco.

La storia insegna come in situazioni simili, dopo tensioni più o meno lunghe, più o meno violente, la porzione maggioritaria emerge acquisendo dapprima il diritto di voto e, quindi, assumendo posizioni di governo.

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Erdogan calls on Turkish families in Europe to have five children to protect against ‘injustices’ 

‘You are the future of Europe’: Erdogan urges Turks in EU to have at least 5 kids

Erdogan Urges Turks in Europe to be Continent’s Future: ‘Have 5 Children, Not 3’

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Il problema demografico della Europa e quello della Germania in particolare è terrificante.

Le femmine autoctone non figliano. Gli indici di fertilità globali sono sostenuti principalmente dalle nascite di figli di immigrati, che però non sono né si sentono tedeschi.

La massa si culla in illusioni utopiche: ricordano i tedeschi del 1944. Poi, dopo che arrivarono gli Alleati e l’Armata Rossa, videro i sorci verdi.

Il problema non è di quando i tedeschi si saranno estinti, bensì il periodo di transitorio: pagheranno ad usura le ideologie che hanno coltivato a livello fideistico. I falsi profeti danno solo rimorsi ed infelicità.

Germania. Realtà geografica, non più umana, politica ed economica.

Germania. Anche la Merkel piange. Wissmann: o si cambia o si fallisce.

Germania. 13 milioni di poveri e 330,000 famiglie con la luce tagliata.


Adnk. 2017-07-04. Migranti, Austria pronta a schierare esercito al confine italiano.

Si alza la tensione in Europa sulla questione migranti. L’Austria vuole schierare l’esercito al confine con l’Italia se non rallenterà il flusso dal Mediterraneo. “Penso che saranno attivati molto presto controlli alla frontiera e che sarà necessario l’aiuto di un dispiegamento (dell’esercito)”, ha detto il ministro della Difesa di Vienna, Hans Peter Doskozil all’edizione on line del Krone Daily, indicando che questa scelta è inevitabile “se non rallenta il flusso dall’Italia”.

Il giornale scrive che 750 soldati e quattro veicoli blindati sarebbero già stati mandati al Brennero lo scorso fine settimane.

La Commissione europea intanto ha fatto sapere di essere al lavoro per preparare alcune “misure concrete” sul dossier migranti, dopo l’incontro di domenica dei ministri dell’Interno di Francia, Germania, e Italia e del commissario Ue Dimitris Avramopoulos a Parigi. Le misure saranno discusse oggi al collegio dei commissari. Uno dei nodi più spinosi da sciogliere sarà l’ipotesi di far sbarcare i migranti soccorsi non solo in Italia ma in porti di altri Paesi Ue.


Conservative Daily Post. 2017-07-04. Migration Complete: Frankfurt Becomes First City With More Refugees Than Native Citizens

For the first time in history, more than half of residents living in the German city of Frankfurt have a migrant background, as reported by official statistics from the city’s Office of Statistics and Elections.

Figures show that 51.2 percent of people living there are either non-German, German citizens born abroad, or Germans who are the children of immigrants. Regarding this issue, the city’s secretary of integration Sylvia Weber explained that Frankfurt has minorities with relatively large numbers, but no group with a clear majority.

Statistics show that Turkish migrants represent the city’s largest non-German minority, accounting for 13 percent of the entire population. Additionally, a further 61 percent of Frankfurt’s residents who were born abroad are citizens of other European Union (EU) nations.

Apparently, the vast majority of immigrants had a legal and consolidated status of residency in the city. These controversial statistics were revealed in a 200-page document titled “Frankfurt Integration and Diversity Monitoring,” with the main intention being to provide a basis for the city to respond to any kind of inequality regarding employment, housing, or education.

Economically, this report reveals huge disparities between foreigners and Germans, with the income of almost 50 percent of people with roots outside the country falling below the poverty line compared to the 23 percent amongst the natives.

The report also shows that immigrants or people with foreign backgrounds are less likely to be in work, with just 73 percent of non-German men and 59 percent of non-German women being in employment. On the other hand, 78 percent of German women and 83 percent of German men are in work.

Regarding these concerning numbers, Weber hailed the rate of singled motherhood amongst women of foreign origin. As a matter of fact, the report clearly shows that this particular case in this group of people was significantly higher than that of native Germans in Frankfurt.

Given this issue, Weber told that this reality represents a possible sign that female migrant are emancipating themselves. Additionally, Weber called for more research into this subject in order to look for certain strategies to solve it.

Far from being an unexpected situation, this new scenario that Germany is experiencing was predicted in a controversial book titled “Super-Diversity: A New Perspective on Integration.” This work anticipated that native Germans would soon be reduced to a minority in major cities like Stuttgart, Augsburg, and Frankfurt.

In fact, the book also explained that these German cities would join other “majority minority” cities in Europe like London, Brussels, Geneva, and Amsterdam. Its authors celebrated the demographic transformations as providing better opportunities for social justice in Germany and almost every other European nation.

Immigration researcher Jens Schneider and his co-authors Maurice Crul and Franz Lelie assured this new reality would make that everyone living in a large European city will belong to an ethnic minority group. Additionally, they celebrated this possible future by saying that everything will like in New York, which according to their point of view represents a vibrant and metropolitan melting pot.

On the other hand, noting that two-thirds of young people in many of Western Europe’s major cities are of foreign origin, the authors brutally criticized politicians’ calls for newcomers to assimilate. They assure that if there’s no longer any ethnic majority group, everyone will have to adapt to everyone else and diversity will become the new norm in the continent.

They also told that these calls for migrants to integrate and assimilate makes that an important number of citizens with foreign backgrounds will feel excluded and unwelcome. However, they admitted this new reality will require what could be considered as the largest psychological shifts in the history.

According to recent statistics revealed by German interior minister Thomas de Maiziere, the crime rate among migrants in Germany rose by more than 50 percent last year. The numbers of suspected crimes by refugees, asylum-seekers and illegal immigrants rose to 174,438 in 2016, which represents an increase of 52.7 percent.

He also informed crimes by migrants had increased disproportionately, even when the huge influx into the country under Chancellor Angela Merkel’s “open-door” refugee policy was taken into account. Additionally, the interior minister also explained that the proportion of foreign suspects and migrants is higher than the average for the general population.