Pubblicato in: Economia e Produzione Industriale, Geopolitica Mondiale, Medio Oriente, Problemia Energetici

Qatar. Esce dall’Opec e si concentra sul gas naturale.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-12-03.

2018-12-03__Qatar__001

«Qatar has announced it is pulling out of the Opec oil producers’ cartel, just days before the group meets in Vienna»

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«Qatar produces around 650,000 of barrels of oil a day, compared with Russia’s 11.37 million barrels a day.»

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«The Gulf state, which joined Opec in 1961, said it would leave the cartel in January and would focus on gas production»

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«Qatar, the world’s biggest exporter of liquified natural gas, has been boycotted by some Arab neighbours over allegations that it funds terrorism»

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«Opec is expected to cut oil supply at this week’s meeting»

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«We don’t have great potential (in oil), we are very realistic. Our potential is gas»

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«Expectations are high that there will be agreement on output after Russian President Vladmir Putin said at the weekend that he and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman “have agreed to extend our agreement” to limit production»

* * * * * * * *

Il braccio di ferro è evidente.

Da una parte i paesi produttori vorrebbero poter spuntare prezzi alti, e quindi sono favorevoli ad una riduzione della estrazione; dall’altra parte i paesi consumatori vorrebbero poter ottenere i prodotti petroliferi a basso costo.

Recentemente Mr Trump aveva constato come un basso costo del petrolio fosse equivalente negli Stati Uniti ad una riduzione delle tasse, ma i produttori avevano obiettato che il ragionamento era corretto, ma che loro non erano sicuramente di accordo nel dover pagarne il costo per conto degli gli americani.

Per quanto riguarda il mercato del gas naturale liquefatto, gli osservatori fanno notare che, essendo gli americani degli esportatori, avrebbero tutto da guadagnare da prezzi elevati. Da questo punto di vista il Qatar si sarebbe trovato un socio di non poco peso.


Bbc. 2018-12-03. Qatar pulls out of Opec oil producers’ cartel

Qatar has announced it is pulling out of the Opec oil producers’ cartel, just days before the group meets in Vienna.

The Gulf state, which joined Opec in 1961, said it would leave the cartel in January and would focus on gas production.

Qatar, the world’s biggest exporter of liquified natural gas, has been boycotted by some Arab neighbours over allegations that it funds terrorism.

Opec is expected to cut oil supply at this week’s meeting.

Explaining Qatar’s decision, Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi said: “We don’t have great potential (in oil), we are very realistic. Our potential is gas.”

He said geopolitics was not factor in the decision.

Since June 2017, Qatar has been cut off by some of its powerful Arab neighbours, particularly Saudi Arabia, over its alleged support for terrorism.

Production cuts

Qatar’s withdrawal from Opec may not have any lasting impact on the price of oil as it a relatively small producer.

But this week’s meeting of Opec is being closely watched by markets for any agreement over cuts to production after the oil price fell sharply in November.

Expectations are high that there will be agreement on output after Russian President Vladmir Putin said at the weekend that he and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman “have agreed to extend our agreement” to limit production.

Russia is not a member of Opec but is the biggest oil producer outside the group.

Mr Putin’s comments pushed oil prices higher. In early trading on Monday, Brent crude was $2.60 higher at $62.06 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate oil rose $2.42 to $53.35 a barrel.

However, prices are down sharply from September when Brent crude was at $81.16 a barrel.

Qatar produces around 650,000 of barrels of oil a day, compared with Russia’s 11.37 million barrels a day.

Annunci
Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Medio Oriente

Arabia, Egitto, Germania e Meko 200. Il problema è Frau Merkel.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-11-12.

2018-11-10__Meko200__001

Vi sono due aspetti del problema.

Il primo sarebbe il più semplice.

«Era stato firmato a metà settembre tra il Ministero della Difesa egiziano e i cantieri tedeschi ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS)»

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«contratto per 2 miliardi di euro per la costruzione di 4 fregate Meko A200 per la Marina egiziana …. maggiore finanziatore dell’operazione: l’Arabia Saudita»

*

Da tempo l’Arabia Saudita sta finanziando largamente il riarmo egiziano. Quindi, pur con tutto il garbo mediorientale, Riad è in grado di suggerire agli egiziani i potenziali fornitori, visto che alla fine dei conti il denaro lo mettono i sauditi. Fin qui, nulla da dire.

*

Poi è sorto il caso Khashoggi.

Se alcune recenti vicende sono dolorosamente note, di altre i media sembrerebbero essere restii a parlarne.

Mr Khashoggi è stato sicuramente un giornalista, ma questo era, diciamo, il secondo lavoro.

Mr Jamal Khashoggi è nato a Medina il 13 ottobre 1958. Suo nonno, Muhammad Khashoggi era di origine turca (Kaşıkçı) ed aveva sposato una donna araba saudita:fu il medico personale del re ʿAbd al-ʿAzīz Āl Saʿūd, ossia del fondatore del regno dell’Arabia Saudita. Un suo zio era invece Adnan Khashoggi, commerciante di armi rimasto coinvolto nello scandalo dell’Irangate. Dalla famiglia Mr Khashoggi aveva ereditato un patrimoni di circa quattro miliardi di dollari, ma sembrerebbero essere solo le quote denunciate al fisco locale. Jamal Khashoggi era cugino di primo grado di Dodi Al-Fayed, che intratteneva una relazione personale con la principessa Diana nel Regno Unito quando i due rimasero uccisi in un incidente automobilistico a Parigi.

Mr Khashoggi proseguiva il felice commercio di famiglia. Nel settembre 2017 Mr Khashoggi prese la via dell’esilio dopo aver pubblicato articoli di fuoco contro il Governo Saudita, contro Re Salman, e contro il Principe Mohammad bin Salman.

Definirlo solo ‘giornalista‘ sarebbe invero molto riduttivo.

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Mr Khashoggi morì il due ottobre nell’Ambasciata Saudita ad Istambul in circostanze tuttora poco chiare, ma che verisimilmente vedrebbe i sauditi parte attiva nella sua dipartita.

Adesso che abbiamo un quadro più realistico di chi fosse il personaggio si possono comprendere meglio le reazioni turche ed occidentali.

«Riad si sarebbe opposta alla vendita a causa di un ulteriore peggioramento delle relazioni diplomatiche tra la monarchia del Golfo e Berlino dopo la decisione assunta in ottobre da Berlino di bloccare le forniture militari a Riad»

*

«La cancelliera tedesca Angela Merkel il 22 ottobre ha dichiarato: “Sono d’accordo con tutti coloro che sostengono che le esportazioni di armi, anche se già limitate, non possono verificarsi nelle circostanze attuali”. »

*

«Il veto nei confronti delle navi tedesche dei sauditi (che finanziano la gran parte del massiccio riarmo attuato dall’Egitto negli ultimi anni) potrebbe avere l’obiettivo di indurre Berlino a tornare sui suoi passi e riprendere le forniture alle forze di Riad (impegnate nel conflitto yemenita e nel contrasto all’Iran) ma potrebbe anche determinare la riapertura della gara per le quattro unità navali egiziane»

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«L’Egitto aveva manifestato l’interesse ad acquisire ulteriori corvette francesi Gowind ma non venne trovato un accordo con Parigi sul costo delle unità»

* * * * * * * *

In Medio Oriente mancano molte cose: acquedotti, fogne, centrali elettriche, sistema ferroviario, ospedali, etc., ma non mancano sicuramente armi. Molte popolazioni mediorientali sono sottonutrite, ma in compenso hanno depositi di munizioni di tutto rispetto.

Che Frau Merkel abbia subito una crisi di coscienza potrebbe lasciare molti seri dubbi: il caso Khashoggi sembrerebbe essere decisamente ben più ampio che non l’omicidio di un giornalista e, soprattutto, un affare internazionale, non certo solo tedesco. Magari, qualcuno di buon cuore potrebbe averle dato un suggerimento.

I maligni. Già, al mondo ci sono i maligni.

Pensate che vi sono malignassi che sibilano che i servizi francesi non sarebbero estranei alla vicenda, pur di far vendere qualche Gowind. Ma come si potrebbe mai credere che i francesi di quel santo uomo di Mr macron siano poi così attaccati al vile denaro?


Analisi Difesa. 2018-11-10. I sauditi congelano il contratto per le fregate tedesche Meko 200 all’Egitto

Era stato firmato a metà settembre tra il Ministero della Difesa egiziano e i cantieri tedeschi ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS), ma il contratto per 2 miliardi di euro per la costruzione di 4 fregate Meko A200 per la Marina egiziana sarebbe stato “congelato” dal maggiore finanziatore dell’operazione: l’Arabia Saudita.

Riad si sarebbe opposta alla vendita a causa di un ulteriore peggioramento delle relazioni diplomatiche tra la monarchia del Golfo e Berlino dopo la decisione assunta in ottobre da Berlino di bloccare le forniture militari a Riad dopo l’uccisione del giornalista Jamal Khashoggi al consolato saudita in Turchia.

La cancelliera tedesco Angela Merkel il 22 ottobre ha dichiarato: “Sono d’accordo con tutti coloro che sostengono che le esportazioni di armi, anche se già limitate, non possono verificarsi nelle circostanze attuali”. Alcuni giorni dopo ha detto che non verranno consegnate armi in Arabia Saudita fino a quando le circostanze dell’affare Khashoggi diventeranno chiare.

Inizialmente l’accordo era per 2 corvette fabbricate in Germania, ma il contratto è poi stato ampliato fino a includere 4 Meko A200, una dei quali da realizzare in Egitto e da configurare probabilmente in modo simile a quelle in servizio con la Marina Algerina (nelle foto).

Il veto nei confronti delle navi tedesche dei sauditi (che finanziano la gran parte del massiccio riarmo attuato dall’Egitto negli ultimi anni) potrebbe avere l’obiettivo di indurre Berlino a tornare sui suoi passi e riprendere le forniture alle forze di Riad (impegnate nel conflitto yemenita e nel contrasto all’Iran) ma potrebbe anche determinare la riapertura della gara per le quattro unità navali egiziane.

L’Egitto aveva manifestato l’interesse ad acquisire ulteriori corvette francesi Gowind ma non venne trovato un accordo con Parigi sul costo delle unità. Nel 2014 l’Egitto aveva ordinato 4 corvette Gowind 2500 per circa 1 miliardo di euro (una costruita a Lorient e le altre tre in Egitto) La capoclasse El Fateh è stata consegnata all’Egitto nell’ottobre 2017 e il contratto prevedeva un’opzione per altre due unità.

La notizia del congelamento del contratto per le MEKO è giunta mentre in Egitto nord occidentale, nel governatorato di Marsa Matruh, sono in atto le grandi esercitazioni congiunte e interforze «Arab Shield”che vedono impegnate forze egiziane, saudite, di Kuwait, Emirati Arabi Uniti, Bahrein e Giordania mentre Libano e Marocco sono presenti come osservatori.

Pubblicato in: Armamenti, Geopolitica Militare, Medio Oriente

Siria e Medio Oriente. Una guerra che fa comodo a tutti.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-10-24.

Medio Oriente 001

«It is the US mid-term elections which will decide whether the war continues in Syria or move on to another battle field.»

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Inutile nascondersi dietro un dito ed essere troppo ipocriti: le guerre in Medio Oriente stanno facendo un gran comodo a tutti. Il problema non è se proseguirle o meno: è dove spostarle, nel caso che quel teatro geopolitico non fosse più a lungo idoneo. In questo mondo ipocrita, quelli che più gridano invocando la pace sono poi quelli che fomentano ogni sorta di conflitti: gli costruiscono artatamente, li finanziano e provvedono di mezzi, impedendo però che la loro parte abbia la vittoria, che farebbe terminare i conflitti.

«The current situation – extending from the Russian response to the destruction of its Ilyuchin-20 to the US mid-term elections on 6 November – is uncertain»

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«All the protagonists of the war in Syria are waiting to see whether the White House will be able to pursue its policy of breaking away from the current international order, or if Congress will become the opposition and immediately trigger the process for the destitution of President Trump»

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«The affair of the destruction of the Ilyuchin-20 on 17 September 2018 handed Russia the occasion to terminate this extended war and come to an agreement with the White House to stand against other aggressors. This is a rerun, on a smaller scale, of the Russian / US reaction to the Suez crisis of 1956.»

*

«Moscow has not only given the Syrian Arab Army anti-aircraft missiles (S-300’s), but has also deployed an entire integrated surveillance system. As soon as this system is operational, and Syrian officers have been trained to use it, which will take three months at the most, it will be impossible for Western armies to over-fly the country without permission from Damascus»

* * *

Né si pensi che le nazioni siano unite: governi contro parlamenti, industriali contro i governi, finanza quanto mai spigliata nel posizionarsi e tra lucro dagli eventi bellici.

«Consequently, whether they admit it or not, they hope they will all be killed in Syria»

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«Tel-Aviv, Paris and Ankara still hope that President Trump will lose the elections of 6 November and will be fired. They are therefore awaiting the results of this fateful election before they decide.»

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«If it happens that Donald Trump should win the mid-term elections in Congress, another question will arise. If the Western powers give up on the battle in Syria, where will they go to continue their endless war? This is indeed a reality on which all experts agree – the Western ruling class has become so swamped in bad blood and hubris that it is unable to accept the idea of being geared back behind the new Asian powers.»

* * *

È quella che SS Papa Franceco definì essere la ‘terza guerra mondiale’, combattuta per il momento ancora a livello locoregionale e con armi convenzionali, ma che in un amen potrebbe deflagrare.


Oriental Review. 2018-10-15. International Relations: The Calm Before The Storm?

The current situation – extending from the Russian response to the destruction of its Ilyuchin-20 to the US mid-term elections on 6 November – is uncertain. All the protagonists of the war in Syria are waiting to see whether the White House will be able to pursue its policy of breaking away from the current international order, or if Congress will become the opposition and immediately trigger the process for the destitution of President Trump.

The origins of the war

It has become clear that the initial project by the United States, the United Kingdom, Israël, Saudi Arabia and Qatar will not be realised. The same goes for France and Turkey, two powers that entered the war against Syria somewhat later.

What we need to remember is not the way in which we were informed about the start of the events, but what we have discovered about them since. The demonstrations in Deraa were presented as a « spontaneous revolt » against « dictatorial repression », but we now know that they had been in preparation for a long time.

We also need to free ourselves of the illusion that all the members of a Coalition, united in order to achieve the same goal, share the same strategy. Whatever the influence of one or the other, each State conserves its own history, its own interests and its own war objectives.

The United States pursued the strategy of Admiral Arthur Cebrowski, which was the destruction of the State structures in the Greater Middle East. For this they relied upon the United Kingdom, which implemented Tony Blair’s strategy aimed at placing the Muslim Brotherhood in power throughout the region. And also on Israël, which rebooted the strategy of Oded Yinon and David Wurmser for regional domination. The necessary weapons were stored in advance by Saudi Arabia in the Omar mosque. Qatar stepped in by inventing the story about the children whose nails were torn out.

At that time, Saudi Arabia was not seeking to impose a new form of politics on Syria, nor even to overthrow its government. Riyadh’s intention was exclusively to prevent a non-Sunni from becoming President. By some strange historical evolution, the Wahhabites, who, two centuries ago, considered both Sunnis and Chiites as heretics and called for their extermination if they failed to repent, are today presenting themselves as the defenders of the Sunnis and the killers of the Chiites.

As for the tiny emirate of Qatar, it was exacting its revenge after the interruption of its gas pipeline in Syria.

France, which should have taken part in the conspiracy by virtue of the Lancaster House agreements, was sidelined because of its unexpected initiatives in Libya. The Minister for Foreign Affairs, Alain Juppé, attempted to push France into rejoining the conspirators, but the ambassador in Damascus, Eric Chevallier, who could see the distortion of facts on the ground, resisted as far as humanly possible.

When France was once again admitted to the group conspiracy, it continued its 1915 objective of the colonisation of Syria, pursuing the Sykes-Picot-Sazonov agreements. Just as the French mandate over Syria was considered to be transitory compared with the lasting colonisation of Algeria, it is considered, in the 21st century, as secondary to control of the Sahel. Besides which, while attempting to realise its old engagement, Paris pushed for the creation of a national home for the Kurds, on the model used by the British in 1917 for the Jews in Palestine. In order to do so, it allied itself with Turkey which, in the name of Atatürk’s « national oath », invaded the North of Syria in order to create a State to which the Turkish Kurds could be expelled.

While the war objectives of these first four aggressors are mutually compatible, those of the latter two are not compatible with the others.

Besides which, France, the United Kingdom and Turkey are three old colonial powers. All three are now trying to impose their power over the same throne. The war against Syria has thus reactivated their old rivalries.

The Daesh episode within the war against Syria and Iraq

At the end of 2013, the Pentagon revised its plans within the framework of the Cebrowski strategy. It modified its initial plans, as revealed by Ralph Peters, and substituted the plan by Robin Wright for the creation of a « Sunnistan » straddling Syria and Iraq.

However, in September 2015, the deployment of the Russian army in Syria, as an obstacle to the creation of « Sunnistan » by Daesh, ruined the projects of the six principal partners in the war.

The three years of war that followed had other objectives – on the one hand, to create a new state straddling Iraq and Syria within the framework of the Cebrowski strategy, and, on the other, to use Daesh to cut the Silk Road that Xi Jinping’s China were seeking to reactivate – thus maintaining continental domination over the « Western » part.

The Syrian / Russian victory and the reversal of the United States

The affair of the destruction of the Ilyuchin-20 on 17 September 2018 handed Russia the occasion to terminate this extended war and come to an agreement with the White House to stand against other aggressors. This is a rerun, on a smaller scale, of the Russian / US reaction to the Suez crisis of 1956.

Moscow has not only given the Syrian Arab Army anti-aircraft missiles (S-300’s), but has also deployed an entire integrated surveillance system. As soon as this system is operational, and Syrian officers have been trained to use it, which will take three months at the most, it will be impossible for Western armies to over-fly the country without permission from Damascus.

President Trump announced in advance that he intends to withdraw US troops from Syria. He went back on this decision under pressure from the Pentagon, then agreed with his general officers to maintain pressure on Damascus as long as the United States were excluded from the peace negotiations in Sotchi. The deployment of the Russian armies – for which the White House had probably given its agreement – provided President Trump with the occasion of forcing the Pentagon to back off. It would have to withdraw its troops, but it could maintain the presence of its mercenaries (as it happens, these would be the Kurds and Arabs from the Democratic Forces).

The Syrian Minister for Foreign Affairs, Walid el-Mouallem, speaking before the General Assembly of the UNO, demanded the immediate and unconditional withdrawal of the foreign forces of occupation, US, French and Turkish.

If the United States leave, then the French and Turkish troops will be unable to stay. The Israëlis would no longer be able to overfly and bomb the country. The British have already left.

However, Tel-Aviv, Paris and Ankara still hope that President Trump will lose the elections of 6 November and will be fired. They are therefore awaiting the results of this fateful election before they decide.

If it happens that Donald Trump should win the mid-term elections in Congress, another question will arise. If the Western powers give up on the battle in Syria, where will they go to continue their endless war? This is indeed a reality on which all experts agree – the Western ruling class has become so swamped in bad blood and hubris that it is unable to accept the idea of being geared back behind the new Asian powers.

Wisdom would dictate that once the war is lost, the aggressors should withdraw. But the intellectual disposition of the West prevents them from doing so. The war here will cease only when they find a new bone to gnaw on.

Only the United Kingdom has given its response any thought. It is clear by now that although London maintains its diplomatic pressure on Syria via the Small Group, its attention is already focused on the revival of the « Grand Game » which saw the Crown confront the Tsar throughout all of the 19th century. After having invented the Skripal affair, and on the model of the « Zinoviev Letter », London has just ’caught’ the Russian Exterior Intelligence Services red-handed in their attempt to discover what is being plotted against them by the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPWC).

This geopolitical doctrine is independent of the events which serve as its pretext. The « Grand Game » was the strategy of the British Empire. Its resumption by the current United Kingdom is the consequence of Brexit and the policy of « Global Britain ». Just as in the 19th century, this anti-Russian configuration will lead in time to an exacerbated rivalry between London and Paris. On the contrary, should Theresa May fail, along with the questions concerning Brexit and the maintenance of the United Kingdom in the European Union, all these projections will be cancelled.

If France is now studying the possibility of leaving the Middle East in order to concentrate on the Sahel, the position of the United States is a lot more problematic. Since 9/11, the Pentagon has enjoyed a certain autonomy. The ten combat Commanders of the armed forces no longer receive orders from the president of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, but only from the Secretary of Defense.

With time, they have become the veritable « viceroys » of the « American Empire » – a function which they do not wish to see reduced by President Trump. Some of them, like the Commander for South America (SouthCom), intend to continue with the Cebrowski strategy, despite the admonitions of the White House.

So there remains much uncertainty. The only positive step taken concerns Daesh – for three years, the Western powers pretended to be fighting this terrorist organisation, while at the same time supplying them with weapons. Today, Donald Trump has ordered the cessation of this experience of an explicitly terrorist state, the Caliphate, and the Syrian and Russian armies have pushed the jihadists back. The Westerners have no desire to see their friends, the « moderate rebels », now qualified as « terrorists », turn up in their countries en masse. Consequently, whether they admit it or not, they hope they will all be killed in Syria.

It is the US mid-term elections which will decide whether the war continues in Syria or move on to another battle field.

Pubblicato in: Medio Oriente, Vignette Umoristiche

Arabia Saudita. I problemi arabi in una vignetta. Saudi Gazette.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-10-17.

2018-10-14__Arabia Saudita

Questa vignetta, comparsa sulla prima pagina della Saudi Gazette, mette il dito nella piaga purulenta.

L’Arabia Saudita ha un sistema economico che dipende quasi esclusivamente dal petrolio.

Il comparto produttivo, industriale ed agricolo, è minimale e disatteso.

Le statistiche pubblicate si prestano a seri dubbi di quanto possano essere attendibili.

In assenza di industria, esistono solo rare scuole tecniche, sia a livello di diploma sia a livello universitario.

Poi, su tutto, si sta relativamente bene se si appartiene alla Tribù Saudita: in caso contrario ci si deve arrabattare a vivacchiare alla bene meglio.

Sarebbe improprio definire la situazione in termini di “corruzione“. La realtà tribale araba, non solo saudita, affonda le sue radici in quasi tre millenni di storia. Sarebbe impensabile far mutare la cultura locale in pochi anni.

E spesso, valutando la situazione dal punto di vista occidentale, non ci si rende conto che a perpetuare la Weltanschauung islamica araba sono proprio le donne, che allevano i figli e le figlie inculcando i valori loro caratteristici.

Ad oggi, prepararsi ad un lavoro produttivo, cercare un posto e farsi assumere è un problema quasi irrisolvibile. E ciò piaccia o non piaccia agli estensori delle statistiche.

Pubblicato in: Medio Oriente, Stati Uniti

Khashoggi. Il caso diventa affare diplomatico.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-10-14.

2018-10-14__Khasoggi__001

Ci si inginocchia per pregare oppure per venerare il Presidente?


Del caso del giornalista saudita Jamal Khashoggi sono state scritte migliaia di parole, ma alla fine di elementi certi risulterebbe solo che sia entrato in una ambasciata e poi non ne sia più uscito.

Tutto il resto sono al massimo ipotesi ragionevoli, ma che dovrebbero essere comprovate, ma almeno a prima vista la maggior quota sembrerebbe da ascriversi a disinformazione pura.

Forse l’unico metodo valido per cercare di capire cosa sia successo realmente potrebbe essere la ricerca del ‘cui prodest‘.

I titoli del The New York Times sono tutto un programma.

Questo sarebbe il primo titolo:


Trump Welcomes Home Pastor Andrew Brunson, but Denies Link to Saudi Case

«President Trump welcomed home on Saturday an American pastor freed by Turkey and said the release would improve relations with Ankara, but he denied any connection to the dispute between Turkey and Saudi Arabia over the missing Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

With television cameras on hand to record the event, Mr. Trump invited the pastor, Andrew Brunson, to the Oval Office roughly an hour after he had landed back in the United States. In an emotional moment, Mr. Brunson asked if he could pray for Mr. Trump, then knelt next to him and asked God to give the president “supernatural wisdom.”»

*

Questo sarebbe invece il secondo titolo.

‘Davos in the Desert,’ a Saudi Prince’s Glittering Showcase, Is Stained by a Grisly Accusation

«The participants nicknamed it “Davos in the Desert,” which captures the lofty ambitions of the annual investor conference scheduled to convene in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, this month.

Initially planned as an intimate gathering, it grew quickly in size and scope, and the inaugural meeting last year reflected the determination of its host, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, to be a player on the world stage.

In keeping with Muslim practice, no alcohol was served. Waiters roamed the vast, opulent Ritz-Carlton Hotel, offering pale Saudi coffee and exotic fruit drinks. Outside the hotel, female executives kept their arms and legs covered. But the gathering was an extravagant embodiment of Crown Prince Mohammed’s dream to modernize Saudi Arabia and wean it off its reliance on oil by 2030.

Speaking on stage to the Fox Business Network anchor Maria Bartiromo, the prince said Saudi Arabia “and all of its projects and programs can reach new horizons in the world.” Then he presented his blueprint for Neom, a $500 billion planned city that would rise from the sands — a futuristic Xanadu of high-tech jobs and robot workers.

Last week, that vision collided with the brutal realities of the Middle East — a swirl of allegations that Crown Prince Mohammed’s family ordered the murder of a Saudi journalist in Turkey. The ensuing furor has tarnished the future king’s reputation and left his conference in tatters, as foreign investors confront the dark side of his Arabian dreams.

If last year’s conference served as a grand coming-out party for Crown Prince Mohammed, this year’s gathering is a symbol of the West’s deepening disillusionment with the young leader. No longer the bold reformer bent on modernizing his kingdom — a favorite of President Trump and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner — he is now regarded as an impulsive, unreliable autocrat who falls back on crude tactics to crush dissent.

The grisly, if unconfirmed, reports about the journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, have prompted a growing list of attendees and sponsors to bail out of the Riyadh meeting. By week’s end, The New York Times and every other major Western news media organization, except Fox Business Network, had canceled its participation. ….»

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I punti cardine sembrerebbero essere i seguenti:

«an extravagant embodiment of Crown Prince Mohammed’s dream to modernize Saudi Arabia»

*

«he presented his blueprint for Neom, a $500 billion planned city that would rise from the sands»

*

«Jamal Khashoggi, have prompted a growing list of attendees and sponsors to bail out of the Riyadh meeting»

*

«No longer the bold reformer bent on modernizing his kingdom — a favorite of President Trump and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner — he is now regarded as an impulsive, unreliable autocrat who falls back on crude tactics to crush dissent»

* * * * * * *

Nei fatti a ben pochi, per non dire a nessuno, interessa che l’Arabia Saudita impianti sistemi economici alternativi a quello petrolifero.

Esattamente come a ben pochi, sempre per non dire a nessuno, interessa che l’Arabia Saudita ampli la sua sfera di interessi locoregionali politici, militari ed economici.

Un business da cinquecento miliardi è oltremodo appetibile, ma chi ambisca a comparteciparvi vorrebbe farlo alle proprie condizioni, non certo a quelle prospettate dal Principe Ereditario.

Tutte le grandi superpotenze ne sono coinvolte: dagli Stati Uniti alla Russia, per non parlare poi della lunga ombra dei cinesi, sempre discreti e quasi invisibili, ma attivamente presente.

Siamo chiari. Di Mr Jamal Khashoggi e della fine che avrebbe fatto non ne cale a nessuno. Mentre tutti sono interessati ad influenzare e determinare gli equilibri politici, militari ed economici del Medio Oriente.

Ragionando sotto questa ottica, molto di quanto sta accadendo diventa improvvisamente semplice da comprendersi.


→ Bbc. 2018-10-14. Jamal Khashoggi: UK and US ‘could boycott’ Saudi conference

Britain and the US are considering boycotting a major international conference in Saudi Arabia after the disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, the BBC has learned.

Mr Khashoggi, a critic of the Saudi government, vanished on 2 October after visiting its consulate in Istanbul.

The authorities in Istanbul believe he was murdered there by Saudi agents – claims Riyadh has dismissed as “lies”.

Donald Trump has said he would “punish” Saudi Arabia if it was responsible.

A number of sponsors and media groups have decided to pull out of this month’s investment conference in Riyadh, dubbed Davos in the Desert, as a result of concerns over Mr Khashoggi’s fate.

Diplomatic sources have now told the BBC’s James Landale both the US Treasury Secretary, Steve Mnuchin, and the UK’s International Trade Secretary, Liam Fox, might not attend the event, which is being hosted by the kingdom’s Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman to promote his reform agenda.

A spokesman for the UK’s international trade department said Dr Fox’s diary was not yet finalised for the week of the conference.

A joint statement of condemnation, if it is confirmed that Mr Khashoggi was killed by Saudi agents, is also being discussed by US and European diplomats.

However, Mr Khashoggi’s fiancée, Hatice Cengiz, has said words alone will not be good enough if he has been murdered.

“If we have already lost Jamal, then condemnation is not enough,” she wrote in a piece for the New York Times. “The people who took him from us, irrespective of their political positions, must be held accountable and punished to the full extent of the law.”

She added that Saturday had been Jamal’s birthday.

“When your loved one leaves this world, the other world no longer seemed scary or far away. It is being left here all alone, without them, that is most painful.”

President Donald Trump has said the US will inflict “severe punishment” on Saudi Arabia if the kingdom is found to be responsible for the death of Mr Khashoggi.

He said he would be “very upset and angry if that were the case”, but ruled out halting big military contracts.

“I think we’d be punishing ourselves if we did that,” he said. “If they don’t buy it from us, they’re going to buy it from Russia or… China.”

Turkey’s foreign minister, Mevut Cavusoglu, said Saudi Arabia was not yet co-operating with the investigation – despite a statement from Saudi Interior Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Saud bin Naif bin Abdulaziz saying they wanted to uncover “the whole truth”.

Mr Cavusoglu has urged the kingdom to allow Turkish officials to enter the consulate.

What is alleged to have happened?

A Turkish security source has told the BBC that officials had audio and video evidence proving Mr Khashoggi, who wrote for the Washington Post, was murdered inside the consulate.

Reports suggest an assault and struggle took place in the consulate after Mr Khashoggi entered the building to get some documents.

Turkish sources allege he was killed by a 15-strong team of Saudi agents.

Turkish TV has already broadcast CCTV footage of the moment Mr Khashoggi walked into the consulate for an appointment at which he was due to receive papers for his forthcoming marriage to Ms Cengiz.


→ Ansa. 2018-10-14. Usa e Gb verso il no a ‘Davos deserto’

Gli Stati Uniti e la Gran Bretagna starebbero prendendo in considerazione l’ipotesi di boicottare la ‘Davos nel deserto’, il summit dei giganti della finanza e dell’economia Usa, in programma a Riad dal 23 al 25 ottobre, a seguito del caso di Jamal Khashoggi, il giornalista dissidente scomparso 12 giorni fa nel consolato saudita ad Istanbul. Lo riferisce la Bbc online che cita fonti diplomatiche. Ieri, il presidente Usa, Donald Trump, aveva promesso una “punizione severa” se dietro alla sparizione del giornalista c’è Riad.

Le fonti diplomatiche riferiscono alla Bbc che sia il segretario al Tesoro Usa, Steve Mnuchin, che il segretario al Commercio internazionale del Regno Unito, Liam Fox, potrebbero non partecipare all’evento di Riad, patrocinato dal principe ereditario, Mohamed bin Salman.

Pubblicato in: Medio Oriente, Problemia Energetici

Emirati. Sei nuove centrali elettriche. Il problema idrico.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-08-30.

2018-08-28__Emirati__001

Il problema degli Emirati Arabi è sintetizzato al meglio da una nota della Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation

«The UAE needs electricity to maintain its rapid economic growth.

As the nation’s economy grows, the UAE requires more electricity to power new sectors from manufacturing and construction to healthcare and ICT. With the growth of new industry comes an increased population, and an increased use of energy and water to power the economy. In the arid climate of the UAE, even water requires energy, as water from desalination plants provides 90% of all potable water consumed. ….

Nuclear energy emerged as the right choice for the UAE because it is a safe, clean and proven technology, it is commercially viable, and it delivers significant volumes of base-load electricity with nearly zero emissions.

Nuclear energy will diversify the nation’s energy supply while ensuring our future energy security. Investment in nuclear energy will also drive the growth of a major, high-tech industry in the UAE and provide high-value jobs for decades to come.»

* * * * * * *

Negli Emirati Arabi il 90% dell’acqua potabile è ottenuta tramite processi di desalinizzazione delle acque marine.

Ma il funzionamento degli impianti di desalazione delle acque richiede grande disponibilità di energia, di qui l’esigenza di impiantare un numero adeguato di centrali elettriche, nella progettazione delle quali serve tener conto dell’economicità di gestione.

Queste constatazioni rendono ragione del perché negli Emirati il problema dei rifornimenti idrici sia intimamente connesso con quello della produzione di energia elettrica, al punto di disporre di un’unica Agenzia: la Federal Electricity & Water Authority (FEWA)

* * * * * * *

Nel 2018 gli Emirati si avviano a consumare 110.6 bilioni di kWh.

Nel 2000 ne avevano consumato 18.7 e nel 2008 57.88 bilioni di kWh. Una crescita davvero molto sostenuta.

Significativamente, venti anni or sono fu costituita la Fewa.

«Federal Electricity & Water Authority (FEWA) was established in 1999 under the Federal Law No. 31 of 1999 to carry out the duties assigned by Ministry of Electricity and Water in achieving several objectives. Its Main objective is to cater the needs of Electricity and potable Water for the population of the Northern Emirates.To achieve this main objective FEWA has to create a balance between the cost of production and the distribution price in consideration with unifying the existing variable pricing strategies, study the consumption behaviors and create awareness to overcome the waste of electricity and water by consumers. FEWA also has to develop and improve revenue collection processes. One of its objectives is also to provide qualification and training to the citizens making them able to work in FEWA.»

*

Water Management in UAE

«The governmental water authorities are closely linked to the federal structure of the UAE. Despite this, there are many authorities at local (emirate) level, which has resulted in a flexible system that reduces the burden on central government. At the federal level, policies, strategies and plans regarding water resources are coordinated through the Ministry of Climate Change and Environment.

The Abu Dhabi Water and Electricity Authority (ADWEA) is responsible for the generation, transportation and distribution of water and electricity in Abu Dhabi. In Dubai, Sharjah and Ras Al-Khaimah these tasks are the responsibility of the Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA), Sharjah Electricity and Water Authority (SEWA) and Ras Al-Khaimah Electricity and Water Authority, respectively. The Federal Electricity and Water Authority (FEWA) was established in 1999 to generate and distribute electricity and water in the Northern Emirates, i.e. Ajman, Umm Al-Quwain and Fujairah.

Due to the increased demand for water and energy, the government has allowed private companies to participate in its energy and water sector for a number of years.

Privatization of water desalination started in Abu Dhabi with large independent water projects (IWPs) or independent water and power projects (IWPPs) in the early 2000s. This allowed foreign companies to create joint ventures with national companies, which has contributed to the diversification of technology and the reduction of production costs.

In each IWPP, a government authority such as ADWEA retains a 60% equity share while the remaining 40% is held by private investors. All IWPPs are required to sell their water and electricity production and capacity to the Abu Dhabi Water and Electricity Company (ADWEC), which is a government-owned subsidiary of ADWEA. This new system, which has built-in incentives to reduce production costs and improve quality, seems to have produced positive results, notably a reduction in cost.

Financing schemes such as build-own-operate (BOO) and build-own-operate-transfer (BOOT) have been adopted in some of the new desalination projects. Technically, among the newly adopted practices are hybrid desalination plants, such as the desalination plant in Fujairah. In addition, the desalination market is expected to increase significantly with population growth as well as the expansion in industrial activities and tourism, all compounded by overall improvement in the standard of living.»

*

Largest desalination plant in Abu Dhabi soon. [Khaleej Times.]

«Abu Dhabi will build the world’s largest water desalination plant to serve the emirate and other parts of the UAE.

The Abu Dhabi Water and Electricity Authority (ADWEA) on Tuesday announced the launch of the desalination plant, slated to produce 200 million gallons of water per day using the reverse osmosis technology.

The announcement was made at the World Water Summit and World Future Energy Summit, which are part of the Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week, on until January 20.

Construction on the Dh2 billion project in Al Taweelah area – located approximately 45 kilometres north of Abu Dhabi – will start in 2019 and is scheduled to be completed by 2021. The desalination plant is aimed at boosting water supply in the emirates to meet increasing demand, serving Abu Dhabi and the northern emirates.

Officials said the project will be in two blocks, each producing 100 million Imperial Gallons per Day (MIGD).

Dr Saif Saleh Al Seairi, acting director general of ADWEA, said at the launch of the project: “The desalination of water will be done using reverse osmosis technology, which is cost effective. The production cost will be Dh10 per gallon.”

He added: “The Project is important to secure the potable water supply in the emirate and play a key role in the ongoing cost reduction initiative in the sector by procuring competitive and efficient RO water desalination technology.”»

*

RAK to have six new power stations by 2020

«The Federal Electricity and Water Authority (Fewa) has announced that it will build six new power stations at the cost of Dh490 million in the new residential areas of Ras Al Khaimah by 2020.

Mohammed Saleh, director-general of Fewa, said more power is needed for the new residential areas in the emirate.

“The same applies to the new and ongoing industrial projects, leave alone the property investment projects at the Al Marjan Island, Al Hamra and RAK marine city.

“The six new power stations are in pursuance of the directives of the prudent leadership to boost the infrastructure capacity and attract more investments.” The new stations include a 132/33/11 KVA power station, with a capacity of 270 MV

The new stations include a 132/33/11 KVA power station, with a capacity of 270 MV to be built at Al Raq area against Dh145 million, he explained.

“Another 132/33/11 KVA power station, with a capacity of 270 MV, will be built at Al Hamra area where some cables will be extended at the cost of Dh145 million.”

Four more 33/11 KVA power stations, worth Dh200 million, will be built at Al Marjan Island, as well as Julphar, Al Filaya and Azan areas, Saleh added.

“Fewa will build more power stations and extend more electricity cables for providing electricity to the new and planned residential areas in the emirate.”

Saleh added that Fewa has expanded the two power stations of Al Sherisha and Al Muairidh area.

“The two 33/11 KVA power stations, worth Dh8 million, will meet the demands of the new houses at these two areas, leave alone the ongoing tourist projects.”»

*


Agenzia Nova. 2018-08-26. Energia: Emirati, entro il 2020 sei nuove centrali elettriche a Ras al Khaimah

Abu Dhabi, 25 ago 10:30 – (Agenzia Nova) – L’Autorità federale per l’elettricità e l’acqua (Fewa) degli Emirati Arabi Uniti ha annunciato che entro il 2020 costruirà sei nuove centrali elettriche al costo di 133 milioni di dollari nelle nuove aree residenziali nell’emirato di Ras al Khaimah. Mohammed Saleh, direttore generale di Fewa, ha dichiarato che è necessaria maggiore potenza elettrica per poter sopperire alla domanda delle nuove aree residenziali nell’emirato, ma anche ai progetti industriali in costruzione e da costruire. “Le sei nuove centrali elettriche sono in linea con le direttive della leadership per aumentare la capacità delle infrastrutture e attirare più investimenti”. Le nuove stazioni includono una centrale elettrica (KVA 132/33/11), con una capacità di 270 Mega Volt da costruire nella zona di Al Raq. Un’altra centrale elettrica della stessa capacità verrà realizzata nella zona di Al Hamra dove alcuni cavi saranno estesi al costo di 39 milioni di dollari. Altre quattro centrali elettriche modello 33/11 KVA, del valore di 54 milioni di dollari saranno costruite nell’isola di Al Marjan e nelle aree di Julphar, Al Filaya e Azan. Saleh ha sottolineato che Fewa costruirà più centrali elettriche ed estenderà più cavi elettrici per fornire elettricità alle nuove e programmate aree residenziali dell’emirato. Saleh ha aggiunto che Fewa ha ampliato le due centrali elettriche di Al Sherisha e Al Muairidh.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Medio Oriente

Turkia. Accordo con Qatar, che erogherebbe 13 mld Usd.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-08-19.

2018-06-27__Trump_Suprema_Corte__001

La politica di fedeli rapporti amicali genera sempre buoni frutti.

«Gulf nation’s banking sector has considerable exposure to Turkey»

*

«Qatar’s emir headed to Turkey on Wednesday for talks with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who is dealing with a collapse of the lira currency and deteriorating relations with the United States»

*

«Ad agevolare il soccorso dell’Emiro, la fedeltà dimostrata da Ankara nei confronto del ricco alleato del Golfo durante i lunghi anni della crisi siriana, e soprattutto nell’ultima fase in cui gli altri Paesi dell’area, con in testa l’Arabia Saudita, hanno deciso di forzare la mano rompendo le relazioni diplomatiche con i «nemici» sciiti del Qatar»

*

«Dopo un incontro di tre ore e mezza ad Ankara, l’Emiro del Qatar, lo sceicco Al Thani, ha promesso che il suo Paese investirà 15 miliardi di dollari — circa 13 miliardi di euro — in Turchia»

* * * * * * * *

Ben difficilmente saranno i quindici miliardi erogati dall’emiro del Qatar che potranno tamponare la crisi della Turkia.

Non dovrebbe però essere sottovalutato l’impatto politico e psicologico di una simile manovra.

Si resta invece molto incuriositi dall’attuale silenzio del Presidente Putin.


Gulf New. Banking. 2018-08-16. Qatar’s emir heads to Turkey for talks with Erdogan

Gulf nation’s banking sector has considerable exposure to Turkey.

*

Dubai: Qatar’s emir headed to Turkey on Wednesday for talks with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who is dealing with a collapse of the lira currency and deteriorating relations with the United States.

Emir Tamim Bin Hamad Al Thani and Erdogan are expected to discuss “means of strengthening the existing strategic cooperation between the two countries in various fields”, the state news agency QNA reported.

Qatar National Bank, the Middle East and North Africa’s largest bank, in 2016 completed the acquisition of Turkey’s Finansbank. Now around 15 per cent of QNB’s assets and 14 per cent of its loans relate to Turkey, according to Arqaam Capital.

Commercial Bank, Qatar’s third largest bank by assets, has been deploying more capital and focus on its Turkey business in a bid to benefit from closer political ties between the two countries. The lender owns Turkey’s Alternatifbank.


Corriere. 2018-08-16. Soccorso di lusso per Erdogan: in arrivo fondi dal Qatar per 13 miliardi

La promessa dell’Emiro dopo l’incontro ad Ankara. E il presidente turco manda segnali di disgelo all’Europa: liberato dopo 14 mesi il presidente onorario di Amnesty.

*

Nel pieno del tracollo finanziario dello scorso finesettimana, Recep Tayyip Erdogan aveva promesso minaccioso dalle colonne del New York Times che la Turchia si sarebbe cercata presto «nuovi alleati» dopo il voltafaccia degli Stati Uniti con i nuovi dazi decisi da Trump. Detto, fatto. Dopo un incontro di tre ore e mezza ad Ankara, l’Emiro del Qatar, lo sceicco Al Thani, ha promesso che il suo Paese investirà 15 miliardi di dollari — circa 13 miliardi di euro — in Turchia. E la notizia ha contribuito a risollevare il corso della lira, il cui valore è risalito del 6% dopo le pesantissime perdite consumate nell’ultima settimana.

Una boccata d’ossigeno essenziale per i mercati, ma anche per Erdogan, rimasto spiazzato dalla «aggressione» americana e determinato a salvare il suo Paese — e il consenso al suo potere — dal tracollo economico-finanziario. Ad agevolare il soccorso dell’Emiro, la fedeltà dimostrata da Ankara nei confronto del ricco alleato del Golfo durante i lunghi anni della crisi siriana, e soprattutto nell’ultima fase in cui gli altri Paesi dell’area, con in testa l’Arabia Saudita, hanno deciso di forzare la mano rompendo le relazioni diplomatiche con i «nemici» sciiti del Qatar.

Ma la strategia diplomatica di Erdogan per uscire dall’angolo non si ferma qui. Il secondo fronte aperto dal governo turco per risalire la china politica ed economica sembra essere proprio quello europeo. Già negli scorsi giorni un canale era sembrato aprirsi con la Germania quando la cancelliera Angela Merkel aveva sottolineato che «nessuno ha interesse in una destabilizzazione economica della Turchia». Ieri Erdogan ha dato seguito ai segnali tedeschi trattenendosi al telefono con Merkel, alla quale farà visita, dopo mesi di alta tensione, a settembre. E oggi è in programma un contatto telefonico con l’altro leader forte europeo, il francese Emmanuel Macron.

A testimoniare la volontà di riavvicinarsi all’Ue — per lo meno sulla carta — è arrivata anche la decisione inattesa da parte del governo turco di liberare dopo 14 mesi di prigionia Taner Kilic, presidente onorario di Amnesty in Turchia, incarcerato lo scorso anno con l’accusa di far parte della rete dell’imam Fethullah Gulen, considerato da Ankara il «mandante» del tentato golpe del 2016.

Un segnale politico ancora più evidente considerato che arriva nelle stesse ore in cui la corte di Istanbul ha respinto un secondo appello da parte della difesa del pastore Andrew Brunson per la sua liberazione. Mano tesa all’Europa, pungo di ferro con gli americani dunque. Anche sul piano più concreto: dopo l’approvazione delle tariffe anti-turche da parte degli Usa lo scorso venerdì, Erdogan ha risposto firmando il decreto che impone nuovi dazi dal 50 al 140% su prodotti di importazione americana come riso, alcol, tabacco e automobili. E pur senza porre tariffe esplicite, per completare il quadro, Erdogan ha invitato i suoi concittadini a boicottare anche i prodotti americani nel settore dell’elettronica: a partire dagli iPhone.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Medio Oriente, Unione Europea

Le illusioni europee sull’Iran. – Al Arabiya.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-08-18.

Iran 001

I problemi culturali, politici, economici e militari legati all’Iran sono complessi e sfaccettati. Difficile cercare di comprenderli senza aver anche valutato attentamente come le svariate componenti in gioco vedano la questione.

A seguito saranno riportate alcune considerazioni fatte dagli arabi.

*

«It was an almost surrealistic scene the other day when the European Union’s foreign relations spokeswoman Federica Mogherini traveled halfway around the world to New Zealand to lobby for “continued trade with the Islamic Republic of Iran” in defiance of sanctions re-imposed by US President Donald Trump»

*

«Here was an official of a bloc of democracies supposedly allied to the United States not only criticizing an American policy, something quite legitimate, but inviting others to oppose it with full resolve»

*

«Trump may have been impolitic or provocative. But he has betrayed no signature and violated no treaty»

*

«To start with, they all insist that the so-called “nuke deal” concocted by former US President Barack Obama is inviolable because, in Mogherini’s words, the EU must “honor its signature.”»

*

«However, the EU never signed the so-called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), nor did anyone else»

*

«the EU was never part of the negotiations that took place between Iran on one hand and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany on the other»

*

«the so-called 5+1 group that negotiated with the Islamic Republic was an informal group with absolutely no legal existence»

*

«If Mogherini and Alistair Burt are serious in their campaign in favor of the JCPOA they should re-write it in the form of a treaty signed by EU members and ratified by their respective parliaments or at least the EU’s Council of Ministers»

*

«With the re-imposition of American sanctions, thousands of firms trading with both Iran and the US would face a dilemma: which of the two markets do they choose? It is not in the EU’s mandate to resolve that dilemma for them.»

*

«Four-fifths of Iran’s trade with the EU bloc is with Germany, France, the UK and Italy.»

*

«That may or may not be the right policy, but it is at least a policy»

* * * * * * * *

Trump. Executive Order EO13846. Della vera novità nessuno ne parla.

Al Arabiya evidenzia alcune problematiche, diplomatiche e giuridiche, di non poco conto.

In primo luogo, l’Iranian deal non esiste, né può esistere, da un punto di vista diplomatico e giuridico, non essendo le parti contraenti legalmente abilitate a firmare trattati internazionali. Non lice invocare the rule of laws per poi disattenderle.

In secondo luogo, l’Unione Europea non compariva tra gli attori dell’Iranian deal, di conseguenza Mrs Mogherini non ha diritto di intervenire in materia, cercando di assumere il ruolo di parte contraente. Una cosa è esprimere pareri politica, ed un’altra invece il farlo con autorità giuridicamente legale.

In terzo luogo, Mr Trump non ha violato nessun termine degli accordi: il provvedimento EO13846 stabilisce soltanto che le imprese che commercializzano o producono in Iran non saranno ammesse al mercato statunitense ed i loro beni confiscati. In altri termini, questo provvedimento inerisce le imprese europee, noni relativi governi né, tanto meno, l’Unione Europea.

In quarto luogo, sta di fatto come l’Unione Europea si sia fatta cogliere del tutto impreparata dalle mosse del presidente Trump. I dirigenti europei dovrebbero prendere atto come si possa ragionare ed agire anche in modo differente da come loro pensavano fosse l’unico modo possibile.

In quinto luogo, quattro quinti del commercio europeo con l’Iran è sostenuto da imprese tedesche, francesi, inglesi ed italiane, sicuramente europee ma non per questo rappresentative dell’Unione Europea.

*

Sono tutte considerazioni che sembrerebbero esser degne di nota.


Al Arabiya. 2018-08-14. Europe’s dangerous illusions about Iran

It was an almost surrealistic scene the other day when the European Union’s foreign relations spokeswoman Federica Mogherini traveled halfway around the world to New Zealand to lobby for “continued trade with the Islamic Republic of Iran” in defiance of sanctions re-imposed by US President Donald Trump.

Here was an official of a bloc of democracies supposedly allied to the United States not only criticizing an American policy, something quite legitimate, but inviting others to oppose it with full resolve. Almost on the same day Alistair Burt, the minister in charge of the Middle East in the British Foreign Office, told BBC Radio 4 that the United Kingdom, still part of the EU, was adopting a similar position against Trump’s move.

——

«By re-imposing some of the sanctions imposed by four of his predecessors, Trump may have been impolitic or provocative. But he has betrayed no signature and violated no treaty. All he has done is refusing to continue suspending some sanctions as Bill Clinton and Barack Obama had done before him»

——

Illegitimate intervention.

To start with, they all insist that the so-called “nuke deal” concocted by former US President Barack Obama is inviolable because, in Mogherini’s words, the EU must “honor its signature.” However, the EU never signed the so-called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), nor did anyone else. There is no signature to honor or not.

In any case, though hovering on the sidelines like a ghost, the EU was never part of the negotiations that took place between Iran on one hand and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany on the other.

Moreover, the so-called 5+1 group that negotiated with the Islamic Republic was an informal group with absolutely no legal existence and certainly no legally binding mission and no mechanism for enforcing its decisions and answerability.

If Mogherini and Alistair Burt are serious in their campaign in favor of the JCPOA they should re-write it in the form of a treaty signed by EU members and ratified by their respective parliaments or at least the EU’s Council of Ministers. Even then, for JCPOA to acquire some legal dignity it would have to be re-written in the form of an act of parliament and submitted to the Islamic Majlis in Tehran for proper ratification according to the Iranian Constitution, something that the Islamic government is loathing to do.

All of that would require an agreement on a single official version of the deal, which means discarding the various English and Persian versions in circulation.

By re-imposing some of the sanctions imposed by four of his predecessors, Trump may have been impolitic or provocative. But he has betrayed no signature and violated no treaty. All he has done is refusing to continue suspending some sanctions as Bill Clinton and Barack Obama had done before him.

Other factors point to EU’s hypocrisy in this matter.

With the re-imposition of American sanctions, thousands of firms trading with both Iran and the US would face a dilemma: which of the two markets do they choose? It is not in the EU’s mandate to resolve that dilemma for them. So far, and at least two years after the ”nuke deal” was unveiled, European firms are not quite sure how or even if they can treat the Islamic Republic as a normal trading partner. Nor has the EU’s lobbying for the mullahs persuaded them to free a dozen European Union citizens still held hostage in Tehran about whom neither Mogherini nor Burt ever make a noise.

If sincere, the EU could use a range of tools at its disposal to encourage at least some firms to continue trading with Iran in areas affected by the re-imposed sanctions. Four-fifths of Iran’s trade with the EU bloc is with Germany, France, the UK and Italy. All those countries have well-established mechanisms for export protection but none is prepared to use them in support of trading with Iran. Interestingly, some of the sanctions that the EU is still keeping in place against Iran are tougher than those re-imposed by Trump.

Trump-bashing.

Leaving all that aside, the EU’s Trump-bashing on the issue will not change some facts. Even supposing the EU did something to render the re-imposed American sanctions less painful or utterly ineffective the concerns that Trump has raised about aspects of Tehran’s behavior would remain worthy of consideration by Europeans.

Shouldn’t one try to persuade or force Tehran to stop “exporting revolution” i.e. terror? Doesn’t peace and stability in the Middle East benefit from an end to Tehran’s meddling in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Bahrain, not to mention Afghanistan and Pakistan? Would it not be a good thing if the present rulers in Tehran allowed the Iranian people a greater space for self-expression and participation in shaping their nation’s destiny?

The EU could play a positive role by acting as a broker between Iran and the US rather than go for empty diplomatic gesticulations. The EU should seek to persuade Iran that its traditional cheat-and-retreat strategy peaked out under Obama and its pursuit would only lead to disaster.

Obama encouraged the mullahs in their reckless strategy by supposedly granting them “the right to enrich uranium” as Islamic Foreign Minister Mohammad-Javad Zarif goes around boasting. However, all nations have the right to enrich uranium if they so wish or even to build nuclear weapons.

The mullahs wanted another “victory over the Infidel” and Obama gave them the illusion of one through secret negotiations in Oman. Obama’s behavior persuaded the mullahs that regardless of what mischief they may make at home or abroad no one would make them pay a price for it.

Even better, a faux anti-American profile might give a morally bankrupt and repressive regime some prestige in parts of the world where anti-Americanism is the last refuge of every scoundrel. In a talk in New York in 2016, Zarif noted that without its “anti-Imperialist” profile the Islamic Republic would be “just another Pakistan”, which in his world view means a nobody.

Trump isn’t repeating Obama’s mistake by getting involved in secret shenanigans favored by the mullahs; he is playing above board. His message is, behave differently and you shall be treated differently.

That may or may not be the right policy, but it is at least a policy. The EU, on the other hand, has no policy on Iran apart from using it as an excuse for a little bit of Trump-bashing, a favorite global sport these days.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Medio Oriente, Ong - Ngo

Arabia Saudita sospende i voli per il Canada. Considerazioni.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-08-07.

2018-08-07__dionysius_i_of_syracuse

Moneta raffigurante Dionisio (Dionigi) I tiranno di Siracusa, circa 405 a.C.


Arabia Saudita e Canada. Congelati gli accordi commerciali. Espulsi gli Ambasciatori.

Riassumiamo.

«Canada is gravely concerned about additional arrests of civil society and women’s rights activists in #SaudiArabia, including Samar Badawi. We urge the Saudi authorities to immediately release them and all other peaceful #humanrights activists.vists.».

Così scriveva la Ministra degli Esteri Canadese Mrs Chrystia Freeland.

Così rispondeva l’Arabia Saudita.

«The negative and surprising attitude of #Canada is an entirely false claim and utterly incorrect. ….

We have been briefed by what the #Canadian foreign minister and the Canadian embassy to the #Kingdom released on what they named “civil society rights activists”, and we affirm that this negative and surprising attitude is an incorrect claim. ….

The Canadian position is an overt and blatant interference in the internal affairs of the Kingdom of #SaudiArabia and is in contravention of the most basic international norms and all the charters governing relations between States. ….

The Canadian position is a grave and unacceptable violation of the Kingdom’s laws and procedures. In addition to violate the Kingdom’s judiciary and a breach of the principle of #sovereignty. ….»

*

«We consider the Canadian ambassador to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia persona non grata and order him to leave within the next 24 hours.»

* * * * * * *

Di oggi una nuova escalation nel contenzioso.

Saudi Arabia suspends Toronto flights in row with Canada

«The leading Saudi women’s rights campaigner Manal al-Sharif thanked Canada for “speaking up” and asked when other Western powers would do the same. ….

In what appeared to be a further sign of deteriorating relations between the two countries, a verified Twitter account, which is reportedly linked to Saudi authorities, shared an image of a plane flying towards Toronto’s famed CN Tower.

The image was overlaid with text, including a quote which read “he who with what doesn’t concern him finds what doesn’t please him”. ….

Ms Badawi was given the US International Women of Courage Award in 2012 and is known for challenging Saudi Arabia’s male guardianship system.

Her brother Raif was sentenced to 10 years in prison and 1,000 lashes for “insulting Islam” online back in 2014, while his wife, Ensaf Haidar, lives in Canada and recently became a Canadian citizen.»

* * * * * * *

Qualche precisazione.

– Una cosa è il non condividere una posizione politica di uno stato sovrano ed una ben differente è ordinare  a questo di variarla. Gli ordini si danno solo ed esclusivamente quando si sia investiti dell’autorità di emetterli, e poi di farli anche rispettare.

Il Canada non ha alcun diritto di immettersi negli affari sauditi.

– La diplomazia è un’arte delicata e sottile, molto ossequiosa alle forme. Il post twitter di Mrs Chrystia Freeland suona agli orecchi dei diplomatici come uno schiaffo insultante, di poco sotto ad una dichiarazione di guerra.

*

Il dramma degli autori illuministi consiste nel fatto che quasi nessuno ha letto i loro scritti, accontentandosi di riassunti e, soprattutto, di commenti. La differenza è evidente: sarebbe come guardare la cartolina del Cervino oppure esserselo scalato. Senza poi contare che la pletora dei commenti in realtà propugnano cose mai dette, edulcorando gli aspetti più aspri.

La storia insegna come l’illuminismo sia alla fine culminato nel movimento giacobino, di infausta memoria.

Quasi invariabilmente, quando sento parlare degli illuministi mi domando di cosa stiano parlando: chiaramente li ignorano. E questo sarebbe ancora il meno: sono anche convinti di conoscerli a menadito.

Il cuore dell’illuminismo risiede nel fatto di aver rigettato l’uso della logica non contraddittoria, del principio di non contraddizione. Tendenza questa che alla fine culminerà nella dialettica di Hegel, per cui:

«se i fatti conttaddicono la teoria, tanto peggio per i fatti»

I liberal ed i socialisti ideologici hanno assorbito appieno codesto modo di concepire il pensiero. Loro si credono di essere gli “illuminati” dalla dea ragione, fatto questo che li autorizzerebbe a sentirsi le guide naturali ed incontestabili di un popolo bue. È nel pensiero e nei fatti una visione prettamente razzista: al posto del discrimine razziale biologico è posta l’aderenza o meno alla dottrina liberal. Non solo, ma deriva sequenzialmente che chiunque non aderisca alla dottrina liberal non è un avversario politico, bensì un nemico da conculcare ed estirpare. Da sopprimere dapprima con la morte civile, quindi con quella fisica. Sotto questa ottica la dottrina liberal differisce da quella nazionalsocialista solo per l’oggetto da odiare. I liberal sono nazionalsocialisti.

Così i liberal hanno sviluppato nel tempo un superbia luciferina, per cui hanno una considerazione talmente alta di sé stessi da giungere al punto di stimarsi come principio e fine del proprio essere.

Alla luce di quanto sopra detto, risulta ben chiaro il perché Mrs Chrystia Freeland si sia comportata in codesta maniera. Crede semplicemente di essere dio sulla terra. Non vuole cercare di convincere alla propria Weltanschauung: la vuole semplicemente imporre.

Il brano del Grande Inquisitore de I Fratelli Karamazov di Fëdor Dostoevskij è chiarissimo ed auto esplicativo. Dostoevskij ha descritto i liberal con un secolo di anticipo per il semplice motivo che ciò sarebbe stato facilmente prevedibile a chiunque avesse ragionato: però, lo ha fatto con una penna grandiosamente bella e con una penetrazione psicologica di rara acutezza. I russi son sempre stati grandi pensatori: Vladimir Sergeevič Solov’ëv descrisse l’impero liberal in modo talmente perfetto da lasciare esterrefatti che sia stato possibile farlo con un secolo di anticipo.

Ma questa superbia riesce a reggersi solo ed esclusivamente conservando il potere, the power that be.

In altri tempi il diktat canadese avrebbe dovuto essere eseguito perché imposto, ma il Canada oramai vale ben poco, così come l’ideologia liberal in piena devoluzione.

* * * * * * *

«civil society and women’s rights»

Chiariamo subito due grossolani equivoci, dapprima logici e quindi concettuali.

La società civile sono gli Elettori che si esprimono nell’urna, non gruppuscoli che alle elezioni non riescono a far eleggere nemmeno un deputato. Né, tanto meno, sono un’orda di erinni urlanti nelle strade: la piazza è incivile, e lo è perché cerca di imporre il volere di una sparuta minoranza. Una cosa è la dimostrazione ed una completamente differente la sommossa.

I women’s rights semplicemente non esistono. Esistono, e son cose ben serie, i diritti della persona umana. Ma questi diritti sono tali perché corrispondono a ben precisi doveri e non urtano né conculcano il proprio prossimo.

La neolingua liberal, culminante nel politicamente corretto, è roba da infingardi.

Troppo forte questa frase?

Pensiamoci sopra.

Vi sembra forse che quanto detto da Mrs Chrystia Freeland sia stato politicamente corretto?

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Medio Oriente, Senza categoria

Arabia Saudita e Canada. Congelati gli accordi commerciali. Espulsi gli Ambasciatori.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-08-06.

2018-08-06__Arabia__001

I fatti.

«Canada is gravely concerned about additional arrests of civil society and women’s rights activists in #SaudiArabia, including Samar Badawi. We urge the Saudi authorities to immediately release them and all other peaceful #humanrights activists.»

*

«The negative and surprising attitude of #Canada is an entirely false claim and utterly incorrect. ….

We have been briefed by what the #Canadian foreign minister and the Canadian embassy to the #Kingdom released on what they named “civil society rights activists”, and we affirm that this negative and surprising attitude is an incorrect claim. ….

The Canadian position is an overt and blatant interference in the internal affairs of the Kingdom of #SaudiArabia and is in contravention of the most basic international norms and all the charters governing relations between States. ….

The Canadian position is a grave and unacceptable violation of the Kingdom’s laws and procedures. In addition to violate the Kingdom’s judiciary and a breach of the principle of #sovereignty. ….»

*

«We consider the Canadian ambassador to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia persona non grata and order him to leave within the next 24 hours.»

2018-08-06__Arabia__002

Questo il testo ufficiale dell’Arabia Saudita, che riportiamo in fotocopia.

2018-08-06__Arabia__003

* * * * * * *

Considerazioni.

Per comprendere al meglio quanto è successo sarebbe utile richiamare alla mente alcuni elementi.

Fino alla fine degli anni settanta del secolo scorso l’Occidente rendeva ragione di oltre l’80% del pil mondiale: governava economicamente l’intero globo terraqueo. Se sicuramente l’economia non è l’unico fattore che concorre all’umano benessere e felicità, la potenza economica e familiare poneva l’Occidente in posizione egemone. Ma le cose sono cambiate e stanno evolvendosi in modo turbinoso.

«International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook (October – 2017)

Le proiezioni al 2022 danno la Cina ad un pil ppa di 34,465 (20.54%) miliardi di Usd, gli Stati Uniti di 23,505 (14.01%), e l’India di 15,262 9.10%) Usd. Seguono Giappone con 6,163 (3.67%),  Germania (4.932%), Regno Unito 3,456 (2.06%), Francia 3,427 (2.04%), Italia 2,677 (1.60%). Russia 4.771 (2.84%) e Brasile 3,915 (2.33%).

I paesi del G7 produrranno 46,293 (27.59%) mld Usd del pil mondiale, mentre i paesi del Brics renderanno conto di 59,331 mld Usd (35.36%).»

Questi dati evidenziano come l’Occidente, inteso almeno come G7, conti grosso modo il 30% del pil ppa mondiale, mentre i Brics stanno evolvendosi a ritmo serrato. La Cina in particolare è proiettata per avere nel 2020 un pil ppa del 20.54% di quello mondiale. Per riscontro, gli Stati Uniti sarebbero proiettati al 14.01%, ed i paesi dell’Unione Europea a frazioni marginali di questo indicatore.

La conseguenza è evidente: l’Occidente non può permettersi di fare la voce grossa con nessuno.

*

Ma la situazione forse peggiore per l’Occidente è stata l’influenza delle ideologie liberal e socialiste, che per qualche decennio hanno anche gestito i governi nazionali ed attivamente partecipato alla Alleanza Progressista.

In estrema sintesi, in Occidente ha preso campo il vezzo di voler imporre la propria Weltanschauung a tutti i paesi non occidentali per quanto concerne il credo liberal, specialmente poi nei settori etici e morali. La situazione è stata anche forzata fino al punto di condizionare i rapporti economici alla accettazione di ciò che i liberal denominano i propri “valori“.

Orbene, codesti “valori” non sono per nulla condivisi a livello mondiale e l’ascesa dei movimenti sovranisti negli Stati Uniti e nell’Unione Europea dovrebbe renderli in breve oggetto di studio da parte della storia della filosofia e dell’economia: i liberal ed i socialisti si stanno rapidamente estinguendo.

Significativo è l’atteggiamento cinese.

Cina ed Africa. Una politica di rapporti internazionali paritetici.

Kenyatta: Gay rights is a non-issue for Keny

Cina, nuovo leader mondiale dei Paesi mussulmani. – Al Arabiya

Ma alla avanzata cinese, che considera i rapporti internazionali su base paritetica e non interferisce con le situazioni interne degli stati con i quali intrattiene rapporti economici, fa riscontro una lunga serie di insuccessi diplomatici occidentali.

Merkel. Una gran brutta figuraccia in Arabia Saudita.

Macron in visita nel Burkina Faso. Per poco lo accoppano. Incidente diplomatico.

Cina. Grande Muraglia contro la Germania. – Handelsblatt.

Macron licenzia in tronco l’ambasciatore in Ungheria.

*

«Saudi Arabia has said it is freezing all new trade and investment with Canada over its “interference” in the Gulf Kingdom’s internal affairs»

*

«In a series of tweets, the Saudi foreign ministry said it was expelling the Canadian ambassador and recalling its own envoy in Canada »

*

«The move comes after Canada said it was “gravely concerned” about the arrest of several human rights activists.

Among those arrested was Saudi-American women’s rights campaigner Samar Badawi»

*

Tranne che per i liberal e socialisti ideologizzati gli “human rights activists” non sono altro che agenti sovversivi al soldo di potenze straniere: nessuno li vuole sul proprio territorio, così come non gradiscono le ngo dalle quali dipendono. Per non parlare poi di cosa i liberal considerino “diritti umani“: una concezione giuridica scazontica e rigettata dal resto del mondo.

«what they named “civil society rights activists”, and we affirm that this negative and surprising attitude is an incorrect claim.»

Poi, da quale pulpito arriva la predica? Da Mr Justin Trudeau?

Canada. Ontario. I populisti di Mr Doug vincono 76 seggi contro i 7 dei liberal.

G7. Volano gli stracci. Figuraccia di Trudeau il trombato.

Trudeau. Un altro leader liberal arrostito sulla graticola. – Bloomberg.

Justin Trudeau, premier canadese, si era palpeggiato Mrs. Rose Knight.

Non siamo fini conoscitori dell’ideologia liberal e di quella femminista che ne deriva, ma avremmo seri dubbi che il palpeggiare le femmine sulle mammelle e sui glutei, nel tentativo di farsi strada verso zone ben più strategiche, sia conforme alla dottrina che Mr Trudeau professa.

«Canada is gravely concerned about additional arrests of civil society and women’s rights activist»

Ripetiamo. Sempre che esistano i “diritti delle femmine“, rientra nel loro diritto essere palpeggiate da Mr Trudeau? Lui sì e gli altri no?

Nota.

L’anno prossimo si terranno le elezioni politiche in Canada ed, a meno di grossolane variazioni del quadro politico, Mr Trudeau potrà tornate a fare lo spogliarellista in un qualche locale gay.


Bbc. 2018-08-06. Saudi Arabia freezes Canada trade ties, recalls envoy

Saudi Arabia has said it is freezing all new trade and investment with Canada over its “interference” in the Gulf Kingdom’s internal affairs.

In a series of tweets, the Saudi foreign ministry said it was expelling the Canadian ambassador and recalling its own envoy in Canada.

The move comes after Canada said it was “gravely concerned” about the arrest of several human rights activists.

Among those arrested was Saudi-American women’s rights campaigner Samar Badawi.

Ms Badawi had been calling for an end to Saudi Arabia’s male guardianship system.

– Saudi Arabia widens crackdown on women’s rights activists

Have executions doubled in Saudi Arabia?

Who is Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed?

What did Saudi Arabia say?

The foreign ministry said it “will not accept any form of interfering” in its internal affairs.

It referred to last week’s statement by the Canadian foreign ministry, which urged Riyadh to “immediately release” civil society and women’s rights activists.

The Saudi ministry described Canada’s position as “an attack” on the kingdom, saying it would now:

Freeze all new trade and investment transactions between the two countries

Consider the Canadian ambassador persona non grata and order the envoy to leave within 24 hours

Recall the Saudi envoy in Canada

Reserve the right to take further action

Canada’s government has so far made no public comments on Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic measures.

The arrests are at odds with the progressive image the government has projected this year under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

He drew widespread praise last year when they announced that the decades-old ban on women driving would end on 24 June.

Saudi women’s rights activists, including those who have been imprisoned for defying the ban, had celebrated the decision.

But they also vowed to continue campaigning for the end of other laws they consider discriminatory.

Women must adhere to a strict dress code, be separated from unrelated men, and be accompanied by or receive written permission from a male guardian – usually a father, husband or brother – if they want to travel, work or access healthcare.

The Saudi crown prince has also spearheaded a sweeping anti-corruption drive which resulted in dozens of princes, government ministers and businessmen being detained in November and generated an estimated $107bn ($80bn) in settlements.