Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Medio Oriente, Stati Uniti

Biden. Lega Araba sostiene l’Arabia Saudita che rigetta il Report US su Khashoggi.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-03-04.

Biden 001

Giorni or sono lo U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) ha rilasciato un Report in cui indica il Principe Ereditario Saudita Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud come il mandante dell’omicidio del giornalista Jamal Khashoggi.

L’Arabia Saudita ha smentito categoricamente codesta assunzione.

Adesso anche la Lega Araba si schiera a favore dell’Arabia Saudita contro la illazione dell’Odni, ripresa a gran voce da Biden, che ha drasticamente condannato il Principe Ereditario Saudita Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud in quanto non ligio alla osservanza degli ‘humans rights’.

La lega Araba non è organizzazione religiosa, politica ed economica da poco.

Ad essa aderiscono ventidue stati, Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria (suspended), Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, Yemen, ai quali si aggiungono cinque stati osservatori, ossia Armenia, Brazil, Eritrea, India, Venezuela.

La lega Araba raggruppa un po’ più di 420 milioni di persone e nel 2016 aveva una Pil ppp di 6,500 miliardi Usd Int.

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Così si esprime il leader della Lega Araba, Ahmed Aboul-Gheit:

«Saudi judicial authorities are the only ones in charge of holding those involved in Khashoggi case accountable»

«Human rights issues should not be politicized»

«ODNI is not authorized to issue international rulings or verdicts»

«Saudi Arabia’s foreign ministry strongly rejected the U.S. report, saying it contained “inaccurate information and conclusions»

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Assieme alla maggioranza liberal democratica che lo sostiene, Biden si è erto a giudice supremo ed inappellabile della condotta di tutte le altre nazioni, quando queste non aggradassero l’ideologia professata dai liberal.

Sono orami ben poche le nazioni che gli Stati Uniti di Biden non hanno ancora sanzionato: è un modo del tutto originale di perseguire una politica estera.

Ma il resto del mondo non solo non condivide, ma osteggia apertamente questa Weltanschauung di Biden.

«is not authorized to issue international rulings or verdicts»

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Arab League backs Saudi Arabia’s rejection of U.S. report on Khashoggi killing.

CAIRO, Feb. 27 (Xinhua) — Arab League (AL) Secretary General Ahmed Aboul-Gheit expressed on Saturday support for Saudi Arabia’s rejection of a recent U.S. intelligence report on the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018.

“Saudi judicial authorities are the only ones in charge of holding those involved in Khashoggi case accountable,” the AL chief said in a statement.

The 4-page report, released by the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), indicates that Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud approved the operation in Istanbul, Turkey, “to capture or kill Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.”

Aboul-Gheit said that the ODNI is not authorized to issue international rulings or verdicts.

“Human rights issues should not be politicized,” the AL secretary-general emphasized.

On Friday, Saudi Arabia’s foreign ministry strongly rejected the U.S. report, saying it contained “inaccurate information and conclusions.”

Khashoggi, a columnist for The Washington Post, was murdered inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in October 2018, and a number of top Saudi officials were arrested in connection with the case.

In early September 2020, Saudi Arabia’s Public Prosecution issued final verdicts against eight convicts in Khashoggi’s killing, five of whom were sentenced to 20 years in jail and the other three from seven to 10 years. Enditem

Pubblicato in: Cina, Medio Oriente

Qatar e Cina. Si prospetta una partnership strategica.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-02-25.

Golfo Persico Qatar 001

«Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani on Saturday held a meeting with visiting senior Chinese diplomat Yang Jiechi, during which the two sides vowed to boost cooperation and deepen the China-Qatar strategic partnership»

«Yang, a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CPC Central Committee, conveyed Chinese President Xi Jinping’s cordial greetings to the Qatari emir»

«Yang said that under the personal care and guidance of the leaders of the two countries, the China-Qatar ties have witnessed rapid development in terms of pace and depth, with political mutual trust constantly strengthened and pragmatic cooperation displaying strong vitality»

«He noted that China supports Qatar in exploring independently a development path suited to its national conditions, and its efforts to safeguard national sovereignty and security»

«China supports Qatar in playing a bigger role in international and regional affairs, and is willing to work together with Qatar to practice multilateralism with concrete actions and safeguard the common interests of developing countries»

«Qatar abides by the one-China principle, opposes foreign interference in China’s internal affairs and supports China in safeguarding its core interests»

* * * * * * *

Il Qatar ha una posizione geografica strategica nel Golfo Persico, fatto questo che aumenta il valore di avere buoni rapporti politici ed economici.

Xinhua è sempre molto sobria nel riportare i fatti, ma una frase è patognomonica.

«Qatar abides by the one-China principle, opposes foreign interference in China’s internal affairs and supports China in safeguarding its core interests»

Si tenga anche conto come il Qatar voti in sede Onu, e come in tale assise abbia numerosi amici.

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Qatar, China vow to enhance cooperation, deepen strategic partnership

DOHA, Feb. 20 (Xinhua) — Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani on Saturday held a meeting with visiting senior Chinese diplomat Yang Jiechi, during which the two sides vowed to boost cooperation and deepen the China-Qatar strategic partnership.

Yang, a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CPC Central Committee, conveyed Chinese President Xi Jinping’s cordial greetings to the Qatari emir.

Yang said that under the personal care and guidance of the leaders of the two countries, the China-Qatar ties have witnessed rapid development in terms of pace and depth, with political mutual trust constantly strengthened and pragmatic cooperation displaying strong vitality.

He noted that China supports Qatar in exploring independently a development path suited to its national conditions, and its efforts to safeguard national sovereignty and security.

China is ready to work with Qatar to boost the coordination of development strategies, deepen cooperation in the joint construction of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as well as in fighting the COVID-19 pandemic, and constantly enrich the content of the China-Qatar strategic partnership, the senior Chinese diplomat said.

Yang expressed China’s full support to Qatar in hosting the 2022 FIFA World Cup, pledging that China will continue to support Chinese companies in overcoming the challenges created by the pandemic in order to complete the construction of the relevant stadiums on schedule with high quality.

China supports Qatar in playing a bigger role in international and regional affairs, and is willing to work together with Qatar to practice multilateralism with concrete actions and safeguard the common interests of developing countries, Yang noted.

He also voiced China’s support to the efforts by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to strengthen solidarity and cooperation, and jointly promote regional stability and development.

For his part, the Qatari emir asked Yang to convey his sincere regards to President Xi Jinping.

He said that Qatar is eager to further develop its relations with China, deepen strategic communication, enhance mutually beneficial cooperation in the fields of energy, investment, digital economy, culture and infrastructure construction within the BRI framework, and continuously seek new progress in advancing the China-Qatar strategic partnership.

Qatar abides by the one-China principle, opposes foreign interference in China’s internal affairs and supports China in safeguarding its core interests, the Qatari leader said.

He also expressed Qatar’s willingness to strengthen coordination with China on international occasions to jointly promote world peace and stability.

On the same day, Yang also met with Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Qatari deputy prime minister and minister of foreign affairs, to hold in-depth exchange of views on the bilateral relations and issues of common interest. Enditem.

Pubblicato in: Economia e Produzione Industriale, Medio Oriente, Problemia Energetici

Emirati Arabi Uniti. Entrata in funzione la prima centrale atomica.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-08-06.

Emirati Arabi Uniti 003

«La centrale nucleare di Barakah è la prima centrale nucleare degli Emirati Arabi Uniti, è situata presso la città di Braka, a 53 km ad ovest dalla città di Ruwanis. Il sito è attualmente in costruzione, dovrebbe essere composto da 4 reattori APR1400 per complessivi 5400 MW. ….

Gli Emirati Arabi Uniti hanno in programma di iniziare dal 2017 un programma di elettrogenerazione da fonte nucleare per diversificare le fonti di produzione elettrica, investire ingenti capitali in funzione all’aumento della domanda elettrica (negli ultimi anni attorno al 9% annuo), che sarebbe altrimenti sopperito solo tramite centrali a gas. Il programma prevede la costruzione di 16 centrali nucleari entro il 2040 ….

Il contratti è del valore di 20,4 miliardi $, mentre a marzo 2010 è stato aggiudicato un contratto da 5.59 miliardi $ a Hyundai e Samsung per la costruzione dei primi siti. La Kepco ha affermato che le ragioni della vittoria della gara sono da riscontrare in una più elevata producibilità elettrica, minor costo più breve tempo di costruzione tra i vari offerenti. I siti sono finanziati dallo stato senza bisogno di finanziamenti, ma con alcuni partner coreani. Entro il 2020 gli Emirati ritengono di avere 4 reattori APR1400 in funzione che producono elettricità ad un costo pari ad un quarto rispetto al gas» [Fonte]

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Il futuro energetico del mondo si sta orientando a passi fermi e decisi verso il nucleare “pietra miliare nel cammino per fornire energia pulita alla nazione“. Inoltre, i reattori nucleari “producono elettricità ad un costo pari ad un quarto rispetto al gas“.

Cina. Centrali elettriche nucleari. 37 reattori attivi, 60 in costruzione, 179 programmati.

Nucleare, la Cina raggiunge la Russia al quarto posto mondiale per numero di reattori.

Cina. In funzione a Taishan il primo reattore nucleare Epr.

Nigeria. Nuove centrali nucleari.

Nigeria, Russia sign nuclear power plants pact – Osaisai.

Russia. Penetrazione in Africa costruendovi centrali atomiche.

Russia’s nuclear play for power in Africa.

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Pur avendone avuto per decenni il monopolio, l’occidente ha volutamente rinunciato alla progettazione e costruzione di centrali atomiche, smantellando inoltre quelle già esistenti.

Sono state scelte ideologiche, che peseranno per lungo tempo e che hanno comportato l’uscita de facto da questo mercato.

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Emirati, attiva prima centrale nucleare del mondo arabo

Si trova a 300 km da Abu Dhabi.

Gli Emirati arabi uniti hanno annunciato l’entrata in funzione della loro prima centrale nucleare che ha anche la prima del mondo arabo. L’impianto si trova a Barakah, vicino la città di Braka, sulla costa del Golfo Persico, a 300 km da Abu Dhabi. “Gli Emirati sono riusciti con successo ad accendere il primo reattore della centrale di Barakha, la prima del mondo arabo”, ha twittato il premier Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum.

Per Hamad Alkaabi, rappresentante degli Emirati arabi presso l’Agenzia internazionale per l’energia atomica la centrale nucleare “è una pietra miliare nel cammino per fornire energia pulita alla nazione”. Il progetto sarebbe dovuto partire nel 2017 ma ha subito diversi ritardi. A febbraio il via libera la primo dei quattro reattori della centrale di Barakah. La Nawah Energy Company, che gestisce l’impianto, ha spiegato che dopo una serie di test cominceranno anche le operazioni commerciali.

La centrale è la prima del mondo arabo: l’Arabia Saudita, il principale esportatore mondiale di petrolio, ha dichiarato che prevede di costruire fino a 16 reattori nucleari ma non ha ancora avviato nessun progetto.

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Eau. Avviata la prima centrale nucleare del mondo arabo.

A circa 300 km da Abu Dhabi, nei pressi della città di Braka, gli Emirati Arabi Uniti hanno avviato al prima centrale nucleare del mondo arabo. Lo ha annunciato il premier Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum, il quale ha riferito che “Gli Emirati sono riusciti con successo ad accendere il primo reattore della centrale di Barakah”, gestita dalla Nawah Energy Company.
L’impianto è composto da 4 reattori Apr1400 per complessivi 5.400 MW, ed il rappresentante degli Emirati arabi presso l’Agenzia internazionale per l’energia atomica la centrale nucleare, Hamad al-Kaabi ha affermato su Twitter che si tratta di “una pietra miliare nel cammino per fornire energia pulita alla nazione”.

In Medio Oriente è ormai corsa al nucleare con Egitto, Turchia e Arabia Saudita impegnati in progetti per la costruzione di centrali nucleari, anche perché la domanda è crescente ed il petrolio non è infinito.

Anche l’Iran, crisi economica permettendo, è impegnato con al russa Rosatom per la costruzione di nuove centrali e per l’ampliamento di quella esistente a Busher, la cui costruzione era iniziata ad opera delle tedesche Ag Siemens, TyssenKrupp negli anni Settanta e che è stata ripresa e consegnata dalla Rosatom nel 2013.

Pubblicato in: Materie Prime, Medio Oriente

Aramco dimezza il prezzo del butano e del propano.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-04-03.

Saudi Aramco 001

«Il propano è un idrocarburo alifatico di formula CH3CH2CH3 appartenente alla serie degli alcani lineari saturi. A temperatura ambiente ed a pressione atmosferica standard (1 atm a 20-25 °C) il composto appare come un gas incolore ed inodore, che può essere tuttavia facilmente liquefatto per compressione. ….

 Il propano è presente in natura come componente del gas naturale e del petrolio grezzo, da cui viene estratto per distillazione frazionata, ed è inoltre il costituente principale del gas di petrolio liquefatto (GPL), miscela idrocarburica comunemente ottenuta dal petrolio largamente utilizzata come combustibile. ….

Il propano è un idrocarburo alifatico di formula CH3CH2CH3 appartenente alla serie degli alcani lineari saturi. A temperatura ambiente ed a pressione atmosferica standard (1 atm a 20-25 °C) il composto appare come un gas incolore ed inodore, che può essere tuttavia facilmente liquefatto per compressione. ….

 Il propano è presente in natura come componente del gas naturale e del petrolio grezzo, da cui viene estratto per distillazione frazionata, ed è inoltre il costituente principale del gas di petrolio liquefatto (GPL), miscela idrocarburica comunemente ottenuta dal petrolio largamente utilizzata come combustibile.

Il propano trova svariati impieghi in molteplici ambiti, sia puro che in miscela, tendenzialmente con altri idrocarburi. Viene principalmente utilizzato come combustibile, come mezzo refrigerante (identificato dal codice R290) e come carburante in miscela con altre sostanze, prime tra tutte il butano. Oltre al suo utilizzo come carburante e refrigerante, il composto trova impiego a livello industriale anche come solvente, come propellente e come intermedio di reazione nelle sintesi organiche» [Fonte]

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«Con il termine butano ci si riferisce ad un qualunque alcano avente formula bruta C4H10 o per antonomasia all’isomero lineare, chiamato più propriamente n-butano o ad una qualunque miscela dei due isomeri strutturali (n-butano e isobutano) corrispondenti a tale formula.

Il butano si ottiene per distillazione frazionata dal petrolio e dal gas naturale. ….

A temperatura e pressione ambiente è un gas incolore ma meno inodore del propano, essendo tuttavia molto facile da liquefare (avendo una temperatura di liquefazione prossima a 0 °C) ….

Avendo un elevato potere calorifico, viene usato generalmente sotto forma di GPL (miscelato con propano e pentano) come carburante per automobili e come combustibile, sia per usi domestici che industriali, nonché per alimentare fornelli e lampade da campeggio.

Identificato dalla sigla R600, trova impiego anche come fluido refrigerante in sostituzione dei freon.» [Fonte]

* * * * * * *

Il GPL, Gas di Petrolio Liquefatto, è una miscela di idrocarburi, principalmente propano e butano.

I principali vantaggi del GPL si individuano nella sua versatilità che ne consente l’utilizzo per riscaldare e raffrescare gli ambienti, cuocere cibi produrre energia e far funzionare apparecchiature industriali; nel suo alto potere calorifico che consente di avere grandi quantità di energia a fronte di limitate quantità di prodotto; nelle suo basso impatto ambientale, nella possibilità di essere stoccato in spazi ridotti e trasportato ovunque, anche dove non arriva la rete del metano.

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Saudi Aramco sets April propane price at $230 a tonne.

Saudi Arabia’s state oil giant Aramco has set its April propane price at $230 a tonne, down from $430 a tonne in March, the company said on Tuesday.

Aramco has set April butane at $240 a tonne, down from $480 a tonne in March.

The prices provides a benchmark against which Middle East sales of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) to Asia are gauged.

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Saudi Aramco sets Mar propane CP at $430/mt, butane at $480/mt

Singapore — Saudi Aramco on Sunday set its March contract price for propane at $430/mt, down $75/mt from February, and the butane CP at $480/mt, $65/mt lower month on month.

The March propane and butane CPs were well within traders’ expectations.

Traders had expected the March propane CP to be set between $420/mt and $450/mt, and the butane CP to be between $460/mt and $500/mt.

The propane and butane CPs recorded the second month on month fall in March, after a fall in the February CP snapped four consecutive months of gains.

Aramco had set the propane CP for March 2019 at $490/mt and butane at $520/mt, S&P Global Platts data showed.

Aramco’s CPs , which set the price of propane and butane lifted from the Saudi ports of Yanbu, Ras Tanura and Ju’aymah under term supply contracts, are closely watched by the market as they tend to set a base level for pricing for most markets east of Suez.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Medio Oriente

Israele. Benny Gantz avrebbe 61 su 120 voti per formare un governo.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-03-18.

Gerusalemme 001

Israele presenta da diverse decine di anni un quadro politico ove due fazioni rivali che raccolgono un consenso virtualmente identico. Si formano a fatica i governi, e questi hanno una maggioranza di uno o poco più deputati. Nell’ultimo anno tre consecutive votazioni hanno dato risultati inconcludenti.

«Israeli opposition leader Benny Gantz received an official mandate on Monday to try to form Israel’s next government, and called on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to join him in a unity administration»

«In a sharp blow to Netanyahu, who had declared victory in a March 2 election, 61 of parliament’s 120 legislators voiced support for Gantz, leader of the centrist Blue and White party»

«But Gantz’s backers include opposing forces – the Joint List of Arab parties, and the far-right Yisrael Beiteinu faction led by former defense minister Avigdor Lieberman – that complicate efforts to form a viable government without wider support»

«I give you my word, I will do all in my ability to establish within a few days as broad and patriotic a government as possible»

«The time has come for an end to empty words, …. It’s time to set aside our swords and unite our tribes and defeat hatred»

Come la maggior parte degli stati europei, Israele è una ulteriore prova di quanto il sistema elettorale proporzionale sia del tutto inadeguato a garantire la possibilità di un governo stabile.

Non solo, ma a ben pensarci è anche la negazione di ogni principio democratico.

Ci spieghiamo meglio.

Per essere nazioni democratiche, nelle elezioni le formazioni politiche devono enunciare con chiarezza il loro programma, sulla cui base gli Elettori daranno il voto. Ma con il sistema elettorale proporzionale quasi invariabilmente i partiti sono obbligati a formare, dopo le elezioni, coalizioni che ne snaturano i programmi e che, se chiarite prima del voto, avrebbero potuto alienarlo. In altri termini, l’Elettore vota una delega in bianco, e questo genera di fatto una oligarchia non eletta. Sistema comodo per le élite, ma antidemocratico nell’essenza.

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Israel’s president tasks Netanyahu rival Gantz with forming government.

Israeli opposition leader Benny Gantz received an official mandate on Monday to try to form Israel’s next government, and called on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to join him in a unity administration.

In a sharp blow to Netanyahu, who had declared victory in a March 2 election, 61 of parliament’s 120 legislators voiced support for Gantz, leader of the centrist Blue and White party, in consultations with Israeli President Reuven Rivlin on Sunday.

At a televised ceremony, Rivlin gave Gantz 28 days, with the option of a two-week extension, to assemble a ruling coalition.

But Gantz’s backers include opposing forces – the Joint List of Arab parties, and the far-right Yisrael Beiteinu faction led by former defense minister Avigdor Lieberman – that complicate efforts to form a viable government without wider support.

Netanyahu and Lieberman have proposed a six-month “national emergency government” grouping Blue and White and the prime minister’s right-wing Likud party, to confront the coronavirus crisis.

“I give you my word, I will do all in my ability to establish within a few days as broad and patriotic a government as possible,” Gantz said at the nomination ceremony, without going into details.

Israel has held three inconclusive elections in less than a year, and Netanyahu faces a criminal indictment on corruption charges, which he denies.

Gantz, who in failed coalition negotiations with Netanyahu after a national ballot in September insisted on serving first as prime minister in a “rotating” leadership arrangement, called on his rival to agree to a unity deal now.

“The time has come for an end to empty words,” Gantz said at the ceremony. “It’s time to set aside our swords and unite our tribes and defeat hatred.”

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime, Medio Oriente

Greggio. Crude Oil 26.9, Brent 28.6, Natural Gas 1.839, Gasoline 0.75.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-03-17.

2020-03-17__Commodities 001

Il titolo del sito Oil Price è tutto un programma:

Is $10 Oil On The Horizon?

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«After having instructed Aramco to boost production to unseen levels, Saudi Arabia now plans to boost oil exports in May to a record 10 million barrels per day, causing oil prices to fall once again»

La guerra del petrolio continua imperterrita.

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Oil Plunges As Saudis Boost Exports To Record High

After having instructed Aramco to boost production to unseen levels, Saudi Arabia now plans to boost oil exports in May to a record 10 million barrels per day, causing oil prices to fall once again.

In order to achieve this level of exports, the Kingdom is trying to reduce its domestic consumption, which it expects to replace with natural gas from the Fadhili gas plant. 

Saudi Arabia’s Energy Ministry issued a statement on Tuesday claiming that “Saudi Arabia will utilize the gas produced from the Fadhili gas plant to compensate for around 250,000 barrels a day of domestic oil consumption, which will enable the Kingdom to increase its crude exports during the coming few months to exceed 10 million barrels a day,”.

Saudi Arabia may struggle to free up more crude oil for exports in the next couple of months as power consumption is set to increase during the hottest months of the year in the country (May to September). According to the EIA, in 2018, Saudi Arabia reported burning an average of 0.4 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil for power generation, the lowest amount since at least 2009.

In the meantime, natural gas consumption has been rising steadily since 2009, and is expected to rise this decade.

Riyadh has made a 180-degree turn in the last two weeks, after its proposal to deepen the OPEC+ output cut deal by 1.5 million bpd got rejected by Moscow, which despite the gloomy demand picture in oil markets saw no reason to make additional production cuts.

Saudi Arabia’s decision to flood an already woefully oversupplied market has effectively started an oil price war in which Riyadh is aiming to squeeze any competition out of core markets such as Europe and Asia. The Kingdom followed up on its threat to flood the markets with oil by chartering as many as 31 supertankers to ship the extra crude.

In the last couple of days, Aramco has offered their Arab Light and Arab Heavy blends for between $25 and $28 dollar per barrel in Europe, and today’s announcement to increase exports to 10 million bpd could send prices even lower.

This scorched earth tactic from Saudi Arabia is quite surprising, given the fact that the Kingdom has consistently overcomplied with its OPEC+ production quota, which saw its total crude exports fall below 7 million barrels per day in January/February.

As the pain for oil exporters continues to increase, it is unlikely that Saudi Arabia nor Russia will unilaterally take action to once again cut production, as neither of them will want to be seen to have lost the oil price war.

Bob McNally, former energy advisor for President George W. Bush and founder of Rapidan Group was quoted by CNBC as saying that “National prestige is involved here, honor is involved and political power is involved. And political leaders will suffer costs in a war if they believe they are pursuing a greater and more important aim,”.

With none of the parties planning to return to the negotiating table, what is next for oil?

Most likely, prices are set to fall further until most high-cost producers are squeezed out of the market, or at least until either Riyadh or Moscow can claim some sort of victory by inflicting sufficient damage to opponents.

In the short term, this will likely mean that both Saudi Arabia and Russia and even the UAE will continue to flood the market, or even talk them down in case they cannot free up more oil for exports and that oil prices will fall into the lower $20s, or below.

In its second price forecast in less than two weeks, investment bank Goldman Sachs slashed its price outlook for WTI to just $22 per barrel in Q2, while cutting its outlook for Brent oil to just $20 per barrel.

Goldman cited the combination of the Covid-19 oil demand shock and the price war as the reason for its lower forecast. The bank also believes that oil is likely to stay lower for longer as it will take a long time for inventories to come down again.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Medio Oriente, Problemia Energetici

Medio Oriente. Decine di centrali atomiche in progetto e costruzione. Uae.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-03-03.

Mediooriente. Barakah. Centrale Atomica

«The United Arab Emirates will turn on the Arab world’s first nuclear power plant in just a few months.»

«UAE regulators said on Monday they had given the green light to start loading nuclear fuel at the Barakah power plant»

«Abu Dhabi Crown Prince hailed it as a “new chapter in our journey for the development of peaceful nuclear energy,”»

«A December report Dorfman wrote for the NCG said the four plants under construction in the UAE are being built without emergency containment features that are required in Europe»

«a region that relies on desalination plants for the majority of its drinking water»

«Mark Hibbs, a senior associate at the Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy Program, said, that the UAE’s record of complete transparency and ratification of all IAEA recommendations meant “there is no risk of proliferation.”»

«Saudi Arabia is currently assessing bids from various countries to build two large power reactors and has ambitions for 16 smaller ones.»

«With Russia’s help, Egypt is building a power station with four reactors on the Mediterranean coast»

«Turkey — which hosts US nuclear weapons — started working with Russia to start construction on a power plant in 2018, with three more scheduled to be completed by 2026»

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Precisiamo subito che l’Unione Europea ha il dente avvelenato con i paesi arabi che per progettare e costruire le loro centrali atomiche non si sono rivolti alle loro ditte, bensì a quelle russe e di altre nazioni.

Molti sono i motivi.

Sono decenni che in Europa non si costruiscono più centrali atomiche, per cui il passato know-how è svanito. Poi l’Unione impone una serie massacrante di criteri di sicurezza, del tutto spropositati. Infine avrebbe voluto mantenerne il controllo ed avrebbe voluto che la controparte si fosse convertita all’ideologia liberal socialista.

Il ‘no, grazie‘ degli arabi era una risposta quasi di obbligo.

Al contrario, i russi stanno continuando ad esportare impianti nucleari allo stato dell’arte e commensurati alle esigenze dei committenti.

Egitto. Impianto Nucleare russo di Al Dabaa funzionante per il 2022.

Due sono i problemi fondamentali.

– Il primo consiste nel poter disporre di un impianto che generi energia elettrica a costi bassi e slegato dagli andamenti dei prezzi degli idrocarburi.

– Il secondo verte invece un aspetto tipico locoregionale. Tutto il Medio Oriente vive in una perenne crisi idrica: lì la disponibilità di acqua, potabile e per irrigazione, è drammaticamente bassa. Questi impianti atomici sono finalizzati ad alimentare desalinizzatori, che hanno grandi consumi energetici, ma sono l’unica soluzione al momento possibile.

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UAE: Arab world’s first nuclear power plant raises stakes in the Persian Gulf

The United Arab Emirates will turn on the Arab world’s first nuclear power plant in just a few months. In the charged atmosphere of the Persian Gulf, what are the risks?

When UAE regulators said on Monday they had given the green light to start loading nuclear fuel at the Barakah power plant — the Arab world’s first — the announcement raised concerns.

While Abu Dhabi Crown Prince hailed it as a “new chapter in our journey for the development of peaceful nuclear energy,” tensions have been high in the Persian Gulf after the long-simmering issue of Iran’s nuclear program recently contributed to bringing it to the brink of open war with the US.

In the wider region, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and Turkey also have nuclear programs with varying ambitions.”It’s the wrong reactor, in the wrong place, at the wrong time,” said Paul Dorfman, a senior researcher at the international expert body Nuclear Consulting Group (NCG).

“It’s not safe enough … it wouldn’t be allowed to be built in Europe, and the Gulf region is militarily volatile, as we’ve seen with the attack on Saudi oil,” Dorfman said referring to the 2019 drone and missile attacks that knocked out half of the world’s top oil exporter’s production.

A December report Dorfman wrote for the NCG said the four plants under construction in the UAE are being built without emergency containment features that are required in Europe. Cracks had also been previously found in two of the concrete structures housing the reactors.

The threat of attacks on the Barakah plant was first hinted at when Yemeni rebels claimed to have fired a missile at the site while it was under construction in 2017. The report also highlighted the potential for accident or sabotage as nuclear fuel and waste is transported through the unstable Strait of Hormuz, an added source of worry in a region that relies on desalination plants for the majority of its drinking water.

While the UAE has signed non-proliferation treaties and ratified International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) agreements, including a full inspection regime, there is still the risk it could share its knowledge with others not bound by similar deals, Dorfman said.

‘A model for nuclear newcomers’

But Mark Hibbs, a senior associate at the Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy Program, said, that the UAE’s record of complete transparency and ratification of all IAEA recommendations meant “there is no risk of proliferation.”

“The UAE wants to polish its apples and acquire a reputation as a country that is reliable, not proliferating or threatening. They don’t really have any ambition to get involved in sensitive nuclear activities and there’s no reason for them to change that.”

The Nuclear Threat Initiative, a Washington-based non-governmental organization focused on reducing the risk and spread of nuclear weapons, reported in 2018 that the UAE is “often referred to as a model for nuclear newcomers.”

Abu Dhabi hopes its program will raise its profile as a regional leader, diversifying its economy away from fossil fuels and adding the technological and engineering feat of nuclear power generation to its commercial successes.

Read more: Saudi Arabia and the nuclear temptation

As it stands, without the UAE pursuing enrichment and reprocessing, and assuming proper implementation of the most up-to-date IAEA safeguards, “there’s little risk of a military dimension to the UAE’s program,” Tom Plant, the director of proliferation and nuclear policy at the UK defense think tank Royal United Services Institute said.

“If those features start to drop away then the risk rises; and, either way, the development of a civil fuel cycle does help to build skills that have potential utility on the military side, albeit in the much longer term,” Plant said.

Difficult nuclear neighbors

But as a rising regional military force involved in conflicts in Libya and Yemen and a standing dispute with Qatar, notwithstanding Iran, the UAE is located in a neighborhood of growing nuclear aspirations.

Saudi Arabia is currently assessing bids from various countries to build two large power reactors and has ambitions for 16 smaller ones. That would bring considerable nuclear knowledge into the country, though progress has been slow.

Despite declarations its program would be peaceful, Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman announced in September the kingdom planned to enrich its own uranium. De facto ruler Mohammed bin Salman had warned in 2018 that if Iran developed a bomb, “we will follow suit as soon as possible.” In 2003 a leaked report revealed Riyadh had considered different strategies to obtain a nuclear weapon.

With Russia’s help, Egypt is building a power station with four reactors on the Mediterranean coast. The IAEA had reported discrepancies in Egyptian experiments in 2005 and discovered of of highly enriched uranium at a research facility in 2009, but the investigations have come to nothing, Egypt has signed but not ratified the Treaty on Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and has not signed updates to the agreement. 

Turkey — which hosts US nuclear weapons — started working with Russia to start construction on a power plant in 2018, with three more scheduled to be completed by 2026. In September, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hinted at breaking his country’s commitments to the NPT when he said it was unacceptable that Turkey’s neighbors had nuclear weapons when Turkey couldn’t.

In that context, while the “standard risk” of nuclear weapons is already high, the danger of warlike groups attacking nuclear facilities or nuclear transports could be considered greater, Dorfman said.

“In a politically and militarily tense region, further nuclear proliferation would inevitably increase the risk,” he said.

Pubblicato in: Armamenti, Medio Oriente, Russia

Russia. Pantsir-S1. Accidenti se funzionano bene questi missili!

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-02-16.

2020-02-13__Pantsir S1 001

La Rosoboronexport reclamizza il suo sistema Pantsir come se fosse un appetibile fucile da caccia.

«The Pantsir-S1 air defence missile/gun system is designed for air defence of small military, (including mobile), administrative and industrial installations and areas against enemy aircraft, helicopters, cruise missiles and precision guided weapons. It is also used to reinforce the Air Defence groupings when repelling massive air attacks.

The Pantsir-S1 has the following main features:

– combined missile/gun armament;

– immune radar/optical fire control system, consisting of a target tracking and missile guidance radar and a thermal imager for target tracking and missile direction finding;

– engagement of 4 targets at once;

– automatic target engagement mode;

– firing surface-to-air missiles (SAM) in radar mode;

– autonomous operation with an automatic target engagement cycle, from target acquisition to engagement;

– use of the combat vehicle as part of a battery in different combat operation modes;

– engagement of a target by the missile and gun armament from a stationary position and on the move;

– modular design of the combat vehicle allowing the development of its different versions.

Types of targets engaged: aircraft, helicopters, cruise missiles, precision guided weapons, ground targets»

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Come la maggior parte degli armamenti russi, anche il Pantsir-S1 è un gioiellino di meccanica di precisione con un’elettronica allo stato dell’arte, ed il tutto prodotto a costi incredibilmente bassi. Nel suo depliant, Rosoboronexport contempla anche ampi sconti su ordinativi consistenti: nessun esercito sarebbe mai resistere alla tentazione di dotarsi di un simile armamento.

Armyrecognition ne da una simpaticissima descrizione:

«The Pantsir-S1 (SA-22 Greyhound NATO code name) is an air defense missile-gun system designed to protect vital small-size and big military areas, industrial targets and land forces units and reinforced the air defense units responsible for the protection of troops and military installations against precision-guided air attack from low and extremely low altitudes. The mobile version of the Pantsir-S1 system includes a combat vehicle ( up to six vehicles in a battery), surface-to-air guided missiles, 30 mm rounds, a transporter-loader vehicle (one per two combat vehicles), maintenance and training facilities. The Pantsir-S1 is designed by the KBP Instrument Design Bureau of Tula, Russia, and is manufactured by the Ulyanovsk Mechanical Plant, Ulyanovsk, Russia. It has the reporting code name NATO, SA-22 Greyhound. The Pantsir-S1 was unveiled for the first time to the public during the MAKS Air Show in Zhukosvsky near Moscow in 1995. In May 2000, the United Arab Emirates ordered 50 96K6 Pantsir-S1 systems, mounted on MAN SX 45 8×8 wheeled vehicles. The order was worth $734m. The first batch was delivered in November 2004. However, a new radar was requested by the UAE and first deliveries of the completed system took place in 2007. Syria has placed an order for 50 Pantsir-S1 systems. Deliveries began in June 2008. Jordan has also placed an order for an undisclosed number of systems. The first 10 Pantsir S1 (SA-22 Greyhound) antiaircraft surface-to-air missile systems entered service with the Russian Air Force the 18 March 2010. On January 18, 2020, it was announced the purchase of six Pantsir-S1 by Serbia ….

The armament of Pantsir-S1 consists of twelve 57E6 surface-to-air guided missiles and two 2A38M30-millimetre automatic guns developed from the two-barreled 30mm GSh-30 gun. It is provided with a multi-range radar capable of detecting aerial targets with an effective surface of dispersion of up to 2-3 square meters at a distance of more than 30 kilometers and track them down from a distance of over 24 kilometers. ….

The armament of Pantsir-S1 consists of twelve 57E6 surface-to-air guided missiles and two 2A38M30-millimetre automatic guns developed from the two-barreled 30mm GSh-30 gun. It is provided with a multi-range radar capable of detecting aerial targets with an effective surface of dispersion of up to 2-3 square meters at a distance of more than 30 kilometers and track them down from a distance of over 24 kilometers.

Design and protection

Pantsir-S1 carries up to twelve 57E6 or 57E6-E two-stage solid fuel radio-command-guided surface-to-air missiles in sealed ready-to-launch containers. Missiles are arranged into two six-tube groups on the turret. The missile has a bi-caliber body in tandem configuration. The first stage is a booster, providing rapid acceleration within the first 2 seconds of flight after it is separated from the sustainer-stage. The sustainer is the highly agile part of the missile and contains the high explosive multiple continuous rods and fragmentation warhead, contact and proximity fuses as also radio transponder and laser responder to be localized for guidance. The missile is not fitted with seeker to keep target engagement costs low. Instead, high-precision target and missile tracking is provided via the systems multiband sensor system and guidance data is submitted via radio link for up to four missiles in flight. Missiles can be fired in at up to four targets but also salvos of two missiles at one target. The missile is believed to have a hit probability of 70-95% and have a 15 year storage lifetime in its sealed containers. Pantsir-S1 combat vehicles can fire missiles on the move.»

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Le solite malelingue, i malignassi di turno, avevano messo lì che questi sistemi non sarebbero poi stati così performanti come reclamizzato: in parole povere, non sarebbero stati in grado di svolgere i compiti loro destinati.

A prezzi così bassi sarebbe stato ‘impossibile’ produrre un sistema d’arma funzionante.

La tentazione di metterli alla prova era effettivamente troppo grande.


Two drone attacks on Russian Hmeymim base in Syria repelled by Pantsyr air defense systems

MOSCOW, February 10. /TASS/. Two drone attacks on Russia’ airbase at Syria’s Hmeymin were repelled by the base’s Pantsyr missile defense system in the evening on February 9. No one was hurt, Major General Yuri Borenkov, chief of the Russian Center for Reconciliation of the Opposing Parties in Syria, said on Monday.

“The first attack from the northeastern direction was repelled the Panstyr-S missiles at a distance of two kilometers from the airbase. An aerial target approaching the base from the northwestern direction (from the Mediterranean) in the second attack was downed at a distance of six kilometers of from the base,” he said. “No one was hurt. No material damage was done.”

According to Borenkov, the attack was staged after dark on February 9. Now, the base is operating in routinely.

On behalf of the Russian reconciliation center, the Russian general called on militants’ commanders to stop provocations and embark on a path of peaceful settlement in the areas under their control.

The Russian reconciliation center continues to fulfill assigned tasks after the completion of the military campaign in Syria. The center’s officers regularly travel around the country’s liberated areas to assess the humanitarian situation. The main efforts of the Russian military are now focused on assistance to the refugees returning to their homes and evacuation of civilians from de-escalation zones.

Pubblicato in: Medio Oriente, Stati Uniti

Iran. Missili su al-Asad.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-01-08.

2020-01-08__Al-Asad 001

«Da Teheran il corpo delle Guardie Rivoluzionarie Iraniane ha annunciato come “la feroce vendetta” per l’uccisione del generale Soleimani è iniziata e ha affermato che l’operazione iniziale si è conclusa con successo e che la base di al-Asad, contro cui sarebbero stati lanciati almeno 35 missili, “è stata completamente distrutta”.»

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Iran lancia l’attacco agli Usa, colpite due basi in Iraq. Primo bilancio, almeno 80 morti

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Non sono ancora disponibili informazioni sicure: alcuni menzionano 80 morti, altre nessun caduto.

A quanto potrebbe sembrare:

– l’Iran dispone di missili in grado di colpire almeno le basi americane in Medio Oriente;

– non sappiamo se gli americani abbiano o meno cercato di intercettare tali missili: sappiamo solo che li hanno individuati quasi al decollo con i radar;

– «gli uomini si sarebbero rifugiati in appositi bunker»: questo è un segno che l’allarme è stato dato con sufficiente preavviso e che i missili iraniani non viaggiavano a velocità elevate.

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Iran lancia la rappresaglia contro gli Usa, attaccate base in Iraq

L’Iran ha lanciato l’operazione ‘Soleimani Martire’ sferrando un attacco missilistico in Iraq contro due basi che ospitano le truppe americane e quelle della coalizione, tra cui militari italiani. Una pioggia di cruise e di missili balistici a corto raggio partita dal territorio iraniano e che si è abbattuta contro la base di al-Asad e contro quella di Erbil, come prima rappresaglia per l’uccisione del generale Qassem Soleimani da parte degli Usa.

Secondo la tv di Stato iraniana, ci sarebbe stata anche una seconda ondata di attacchi. Al momento non si hanno notizie di vittime, feriti o danni. Il personale del contingente militare italiano ad Erbil si è radunato in un’area di sicurezza – secondo quanto appreso dall’ANSA – e gli uomini si sarebbero rifugiati in appositi bunker. Risultano tutti illesi.

Il Pentagono, in una nota, ha affermato che dopo aver messo al corrente dei fatti il presidente americano Donald Trump sta ancora valutando le conseguenze dell’offensiva. Intanto a Washington si è riunito il consiglio per la sicurezza nazionale alla presenza del segretario di Stato Mike Pompeo e del numero uno del Pentagono Mark Esper.

Da Teheran il corpo delle Guardie Rivoluzionarie Iraniane ha annunciato come “la feroce vendetta” per l’uccisione del generale Soleimani è iniziata e ha affermato che l’operazione iniziale si è conclusa con successo e che la base di al-Asad, contro cui sarebbero stati lanciati almeno 35 missili, “è stata completamente distrutta”.

L’Iran minaccia quindi “azioni ancor più devastanti” se gli Usa dovessero decidere di rispondere. “Se l’Iran dovesse essere attaccato sul suo territorio – avvertono le Guardie Rivoluzionarie – Dubai, Haifa e Tel Aviv verranno colpite in un terzo round di attacchi da parte dell’Iran”. Intanto volano le quotazioni del petrolio, balzato del 3,4% a 65 dollari, e dell’oro, a quota 1.600 dollari l’oncia ai massimi dal 2013.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Diplomazia, Medio Oriente

Oro. Schizzato a 1,553.25. Più che paura sembrerebbe terrore.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-01-03. h 16:30.

2020-01-03__Gold 001

Nel gennaio 2019 l’oro era quotato attorno ai 1,200 euro l’oncia.

A giugno le quotazioni erano salite a 1,330.

Oggi sono schizzate da 1,513.38 fino a 1,553.25.

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Nessuno intende generalizzare alcunché: tuttavia questo è un chiaro segno di quanta tensione vi sia sui mercati a seguito degli eventi politici, i sbocchi dei quali sembrerebbero essere impredicibili.

Di certo, senza forze armate efficienti è impossibile fare la minima politica estera.