Pubblicato in: Commercio

Giappone. Giugno21. Exports +48.6%, Imports +32.7%, YoY. +23.2% H1.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-07-22.

2021-07-22__ Giappone mport Export 001

«The increases were exaggerated by a plunge in trade last year due to the pandemic»

* * * * * *

Japan’s exports, imports zoom amid world pandemic recovery

Japan’s exports in June jumped 48.6% from the year before, marking the fourth straight month of growth, the Finance Ministry said Wednesday.

Imports for the month grew 32.7%, totaling 6.83 trillion yen ($62 billion). Exports for the month totaled 7.2 trillion yen ($66 billion), according to government data.

The increases were exaggerated by a plunge in trade last year due to the pandemic. But they highlight the recovery in the world’s third largest economy as a global rebound in business activity and travel boosts demand.

Exports to the U.S. surged 86% in June from a year earlier, led by shipments of cars and computer parts. Exports to China rose 28%, with strong growth in vehicles, semiconductor making equipment and computer parts, the data showed.

Japan logged a trade surplus of 985 billion yen ($9 billion) in the first half of the year, the second straight surplus in a row.

The economy has been hit hard by the pandemic, shrinking at a revised annual rate of 3.9% in January-March, as COVID-related restrictions crimped domestic demand. Data due to be disclosed next month are likely to show the contraction continued into the second quarter.

Worries are growing about coronavirus infections surging, as tens of thousands of athletes, team officials and other dignitaries enter the country for the Tokyo Olympics, opening this week.

About 15,000 Japanese have died so far and just over a fifth of the population is fully vaccinated. Dozens of people affiliated with the Games have already tested positive for the virus.

Japan has never had a lockdown, but parts of the nation, including Tokyo, have been under a government “state of emergency” much of the year, with restaurants and bars closing early to minimize crowds gathering.

The government expects the economy to come roaring back as the vaccine rollout becomes more widespread by the end of this year.

* * *


Japan’s exports jump on solid U.S., China demand

– June exports rise faster than expected

– Policymakers counting on export-led recovery

– Renewed COVID-19 curbs take tolls on service sector

*

Tokyo, July 21 (Reuters) – Japan’s exports jumped in June led by U.S. demand for cars and China-bound shipments of chip-making equipment, supporting hopes for an export-led recovery in the world’s third-largest economy.

Exports rose 48.6% in June from a year earlier, the fourth straight month of double-digit gains, although growth was largely exaggerated by a COVID-led plunge last year. Export growth has remained strong even as a global chip shortage weighs on Japan’s car output and shipments.

With consumer spending weakening due to renewed coronavirus curbs in Tokyo, policymakers are counting on external demand to pick up the slack.

In an encouraging sign for a trade-dependent economy, exports grew 23.2% in the first half of this year, up for the first time in five periods and exceeding pre-pandemic levels seen in the first half of 2019. It was the fastest growth since the first half of 2010.

The 48.6% year-on-year export growth beat a 46.2% increase expected by economists in a Reuters poll and followed a 49.6% expansion in May, which was the sharpest monthly increase since April 1980.

“China’s economy may be pausing but stimulus measures are being taken. With the help of recovery in Europe and America, it is expected to pick up again,” said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute. “That will help Japanese exports remain in an uptrend, backed by car exports as well as capital goods and information-related items.”

By destination, exports to China, Japan’s biggest trading partner, rose 27.7% in the year to June, led by demand for chip-making equipment, raw materials and plastic.

U.S.-bound exports grew 85.5% in June, driven by shipments of cars, auto parts and motors.

Imports rose 32.7% in the year to June, more than the median estimate for a 29.0% increase.

The trade balance came to a surplus of 383.2 billion yen ($3.49 billion), versus the median estimate for a 460.0 billion yen surplus.

Japan’s economy shrank an annualised 3.9% in January-March and likely barely grew in the second quarter, as the pandemic took a toll on service spending.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Commercio, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Cina. Giugno21. Import +36.7%, Export +32.2%, anno su anno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-07-19.

2021-07-14__ China Import Export 001

«China’s exports grew much faster than expected in June»

«Overall imports also beat expectations, though the pace of gains eased from May, with the values boosted by high raw material prices»

«the world’s biggest exporter has managed a solid economic revival from the coronavirus-induced slump in the first few months of 2020»

«Exports in dollar terms rose 32.2% in June from a year earlier, compared with 27.9% growth in May»

«The analysts polled by Reuters had forecasted a 23.1% increase»

«Exports surprised on the upside in June, shrugging off the impact of the temporary Shenzhen port closure and other supply chain bottlenecks»

«China’s strong shipment numbers last month underlined some solid factory surveys overseas»

«The data also showed imports increased 36.7% year-on-year last month, beating a 30.0% forecast»

«China’s crude oil imports in the first half fell 3% in their first contraction for the period since 2013»

«China’s yuan also rose to a near one-week high against the dollar as the data tempered worries over softening GDP growth»

«China posted a trade surplus of $51.53 billion for last month, compared with the poll’s forecast for a $44.2 billion surplus and the $45.54 billion surplus in May»

«However, exporters are grappling with higher raw material and freight costs and logistics bottlenecks»

«Prices for commodities such as coal, steel, iron ore and copper have surged this year»

«China’s trade surplus with the United States swelled to $32.58 billion in June»

* * * * * * *

Alcune considerazioni sgorgano spontanee.

– La Cina ha superato più che bene la crisi dello scorso anno.

– Più che di ripresa, si dovrebbe parlare di ritorno alla crescita.

– Ancora una volta le previsioni degli economisti e degli analisti si sono rivelate essere errate per significativa sottostima.

– Con i 32.58 miliardi Usd di surplus, i rapporti commerciali con gli Stati Uniti stanno continuamente perdendo importanza.

*


National Bureau of Statistics of China. National Economy in the First Half Year Witnessed the Steady and Sound Growth Momentum Consolidated.

«Imports and Exports of Goods Grew Fast and Trade Structure Continued to Improve.

 In the first half year, the total value of imports and exports of goods was 18,065.1 billion yuan, an increase of 27.1 percent year on year. The total value of exports was 9,849.3 billion yuan, up by 28.1 percent year on year. The total value of imports was 8,215.7 billion yuan, up by 25.9 percent year on year. The trade balance was 1,633.6 billion yuan in surplus. The trade structure continued to improve. In the first half year, the exports of mechanical and electrical products accounted for 59.2 percent of the total value of exports, up by 0.6 percentage points over the same period last year. The imports and exports of general trade accounted for 61.9 percent of the total value of imports and exports, up by 1.7 percentage points over the same period last year. The imports and exports by private enterprises accounted for 47.8 percent of the total value of imports and exports, up by 2.8 percentage points over the same period last year. In June, the total value of imports and exports was 3,291.6 billion yuan, an increase of 22.0 percent year on year. The total value of exports was 1,812.2 billion yuan, up by 20.2 percent year on year. The total value of imports was 1,479.4 billion yuan, up by 24.2 percent year on year.»


China’s export growth quickens as global vaccinations, easing lockdowns lift demand

–    Easing global lockdowns help spur demand for Chinese goods

–    Imports growth remains robust on high raw materials prices

–    Analysts say China’s exports growth may slow during 2H

–    June exports +32.2% yr/yr vs +23.1% forecast in Reuters poll

–    June imports +36.7% yr/yr vs +30.0% forecast

* * *

Beijing, July 13 (Reuters) – China’s exports grew much faster than expected in June, as solid global demand led by easing lockdown measures and vaccination drives worldwide eclipsed virus outbreaks and port delays.

But overall trade growth in the world’s second-biggest economy may slow in the second half of 2021, a customs official warned on Tuesday, partly reflecting the COVID-19 pandemic uncertainties as the Delta virus variant wreaks havoc in some countries.

Overall imports also beat expectations, though the pace of gains eased from May, with the values boosted by high raw material prices, customs data showed.

Thanks to Beijing’s efforts in largely containing the pandemic earlier than its trading partners, the world’s biggest exporter has managed a solid economic revival from the coronavirus-induced slump in the first few months of 2020.

Exports in dollar terms rose 32.2% in June from a year earlier, compared with 27.9% growth in May. The analysts polled by Reuters had forecasted a 23.1% increase.

“Exports surprised on the upside in June, shrugging off the impact of the temporary Shenzhen port closure and other supply chain bottlenecks,” said Louis Kuijs, head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics.

“The headline US$ numbers suggest that in real, sequential terms shipments held up in June, after having moderated earlier on from the record levels of end-2020.”

China’s trade performance has seen some pressure in recent months, mainly due to a global semiconductor shortage, logistics bottlenecks, and higher raw material and freight costs.

All the same, the global easings in COVID-19 lockdown measures and vaccination drives appeared to underpin a strong uptick in worldwide demand for Chinese goods.

Germany, for example, which was at first sluggish in its vaccination drive, said this month it had caught up with the United States in terms of the proportion of the population having had one shot of COVID-19 vaccine. Close to half of Americans are now fully vaccinated, while elsewhere in Europe the rate has also increased recently.

China’s strong shipment numbers last month underlined some solid factory surveys overseas. A measure of U.S. factory activity climbed to a record high in June, while Euro zone business growth accelerated at its fastest pace in 15 years. The data also showed imports increased 36.7% year-on-year last month, beating a 30.0% forecast but slowing from a 51.1% gain in May, which was the highest growth rate in a decade.

China’s crude oil imports in the first half fell 3% in their first contraction for the period since 2013, as an import quota shortage and rising global prices curbed buying, but imports of soybeans, natural gas and iron ore rose.

Asian stock markets, partly buffeted over recent weeks by concerns over the spreading Delta virus variant and easing growth rates in China, extended their gains after the trade data and were headed for the best session in more than two weeks.

China’s yuan also rose to a near one-week high against the dollar as the data tempered worries over softening GDP growth. On Friday, the People’s Bank of China said it would cut the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves to support the economy, especially as smaller firms were unable to pass on rising raw material costs.

                         PANDEMIC UNCERTAINTIES.

China’s customs administration spokesperson Li Kuiwen said imported inflation risks were manageable, but cautioned that the country’s overall trade still faces uncertainties due to the global pandemic.

Li, speaking at a news conference in Beijing earlier in the day, said trade growth may slow in the second half of 2021, mainly reflecting the statistical impact of the high growth rate.

“But overall we think China’s foreign trade in the second half still has hopes of achieving relatively fast growth,” he said.

China posted a trade surplus of $51.53 billion for last month, compared with the poll’s forecast for a $44.2 billion surplus and the $45.54 billion surplus in May.

Asia’s economic powerhouse has contained a sporadic coronavirus outbreak in one of its major export hubs in southern Guangdong province last month. However, exporters are grappling with higher raw material and freight costs and logistics bottlenecks.

Prices for commodities such as coal, steel, iron ore and copper have surged this year, fuelled by easing pandemic lockdowns in many countries and ample global liquidity.

“The pandemic-induced surge in retail sales in advanced economies has started to reverse recently as consumption patterns begin to normalise amid reopening,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics.

“Once retailers in these countries have rebuilt their inventories, softer consumer demand will feed through into weaker foreign demand for Chinese exports.”

China’s trade surplus with the United States swelled to $32.58 billion in June, Reuters calculations based on customs data showed, up from the May figure of $31.78 billion.

Top officials from China and the United States started exchanges in June to address mutual concerns, while the Biden administration is conducting a review of trade policy between the world’s two biggest economies, ahead of the expiry of their Phase 1 deal at the end of 2021.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Commercio

Italia. Maggio 21. Prezzi all’importazione +9.0% su base annua. – Istat.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-07-17.

2021-07-17__ Italia Import Export 001

«Nel mese di maggio 2021 i prezzi all’importazione aumentano …. del 9,0% su base annua»

2021-07-17__ Italia Import Export 002

* * * * * * *


Istat. Commercio con l’estero e prezzi all’import

A maggio 2021 si stima una flessione congiunturale per entrambi i flussi commerciali con l’estero, più intensa per le esportazioni (-2,0%) che per le importazioni (-0,3%). La diminuzione su base mensile dell’export è dovuta al calo delle vendite verso i mercati extra Ue (-4,0%) mentre quelle verso l’area Ue risultano stazionarie.

Nel trimestre marzo-maggio 2021, rispetto al precedente, l’export aumenta del 6,1%, l’import del 9,4%.

A maggio 2021, le esportazioni crescono su base annua del 41,9%, con un sostenuto aumento delle vendite sia verso i mercati extra Ue (+44,0%) sia verso l’area Ue (+40,0%). Anche l’import segna un forte aumento tendenziale (+51,2%) che coinvolge sia i mercati extra Ue (+55,1%) sia l’area Ue (+48,5%).

A maggio 2021, tutti i settori registrano incrementi tendenziali delle esportazioni straordinariamente ampi a eccezione di articoli farmaceutici, chimico-medicinali e botanici in calo del 17,7%.

Su base annua, le esportazioni crescono in misura molto sostenuta verso tutti i principali paesi partner; i contributi maggiori riguardano le vendite verso Francia (con una crescita del 43,2%), Germania (+30,9%), Stati Uniti (+43,0%), Spagna (+56,7%) e Regno Unito (+44,2%).

Nei primi cinque mesi del 2021, la crescita tendenziale dell’export (+23,9%) è dovuta in particolare all’aumento delle vendite di macchinari e apparecchi n.c.a. (+28,6%), metalli di base e prodotti in metallo, esclusi macchine e impianti (+32,8%), autoveicoli (+64,5%) e apparecchi elettrici (+33,5%).

La stima del saldo commerciale a maggio 2021 è pari a +5.642 milioni di euro (era +5.620 a maggio 2020). Al netto dei prodotti energetici il saldo è pari a +8.632 milioni (era +6.633 a maggio dello scorso anno).

Nel mese di maggio 2021 i prezzi all’importazione aumentano dell’1,3% su base mensile e del 9,0% su base annua.

* * *

                         Il commento.

Dopo quattro mesi di crescita congiunturale, a maggio l’export registra una flessione dovuta al calo delle vendite verso i mercati extra Ue; questa dinamica è condizionata da operazioni occasionali di elevato impatto (cantieristica navale), al netto delle quali si stima una flessione più contenuta (-1,2%). Nel trimestre marzo-maggio 2021, la dinamica congiunturale dell’export è ampiamente positiva. Su base annua, in ragione del livello molto basso di maggio 2020, l’export registra ancora una crescita molto sostenuta, che interessa tutti i settori eccetto la farmaceutica. Anche per l’import, la forte crescita tendenziale è dovuta al confronto con la situazione anomala di maggio dello scorso anno. L’incremento riguarda tutti i settori a esclusione degli acquisti di prodotti tessili, in particolare dalla Cina, unico paese tra i principali partner per cui si registra un calo delle importazioni italiane. Per i prezzi all’import, si rileva un’ulteriore accelerazione della crescita su base annua (+9,0%, da +8,2% di aprile), cui contribuiscono i forti rialzi tendenziali dei prezzi dei prodotti energetici e dei beni intermedi.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Commercio, Logistica

Cina. 2021H1. Ferrovia sino-europea, traffici +52% anno su anno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-07-17.

2021-07-13__cina_ferrovie__0001

Cina. Belt & Road. Il segreto delle ferrovie cinesi. – Bbc.

«Belt & Road è un grandioso piano da oltre 1,400 miliardi di dollari Usd per generare un’infrastruttura ferroviaria allo stato dell’arte a livello euroasiatico.

Quando il Progetto venne reso noto la quasi totalità dei tecnici occidentali si era messo a ridere, di cuore ed a crepapelle. Progettare e costruire i quasi ventimila chilometri di strade ferrate, molte delle quali ad alta velocità ed in climi fortemente avversi era sembrata loro la “barzelletta del secolo“.

I cinesi hanno costruito in quattro anni invece dei trenta previsti dagli occidentali quasi l’intera rete ed a costi trenta volta inferiori a quelli stimati dai tecnici tedeschi.»

* * *

Cina – Europa. Gennaio. Da Manzhouli sono partiti 331 treni, +59.9% anno su anno.

Ferrovia Cina – Europa. 2020. 12,400 treni, +50% anno su anno.

Ferrovia Cina, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Iran, Afganistan, più Uzbekistan e Turkmenistan.

Nepal. Belt and Road. Progetto di collegamento ferroviario moderno con la Cina.

Rep Ceka e Cina. Attiva la ferrovia Praga – Yiwu.

Kenya. Nuova linea ferroviaria Nairobi – Mombasa finanziata dalla Cina.

Cina. Xi Jinping si meriterebbe il Premio Nobel per l’economia.

Ferrovia Yiwu-Xinjiang-Europe. 11,920 km in dieci giorni. 1,033 convogli al mese.

* * * * * * *

Nel primo semestre di questo anno sulla tratta ferroviaria che collega la Cina con l’Europa sono transitati 707,000 container da 22 piedi, segnando un incremento del +52%. E questi traffici si svolgono con tariffe ridicole a confronto di quelle di trasporto marittimo.

E si tenga presente come le spese di investimento siano state quasi completamente ammortizzate.

*


China-Europe freight-train service sees surging growth in H1

Beijing, July 10 (Xinhua) — The China-Europe freight-train service has handled 7,377 trips in the first half of this year, up 43 percent from the same period last year, data from the China State Railway Group Co., Ltd. showed.

The freight trains have carried about 707,000 20-foot equivalent unit containers of goods in the six-month period, surging 52 percent year on year.

Launched in 2011, the freight trains have reached 168 cities in 23 European countries and recorded more than 40,000 trips, according to the group.

The freight trains have played a crucial role in stabilizing the international logistics supply chain, promoting Sino-European trade and helping with the global fight against the COVID-19 pandemic.

Around 94,000 tonnes of anti-pandemic supplies were sent through the route as of late June, official data showed.

In 2020, the freight trains made 12,406 trips, up 50 percent year on year.

Pubblicato in: Commercio, Devoluzione socialismo

Canada. Maggio21. Indice dei Prezzi al Consumo (CPI) +3.6% anno su anno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-06-27.

2021-06-21__ Canada CPI 001

«The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.6% on a year-over-year basis in May»

«the increase in year-over-year price growth in May was led by rising prices for shelter and passenger vehicles»

«prices …. remained below pre-pandemic levels»

«Shelter prices rose 4.2% year over year in May»

«Prices for durable goods rose 4.4% year over year»

«Year over year, prices for gasoline rose at a slower pace in May (+43.4%) than in April (+62.5%)»

«On a monthly basis, gasoline prices were up 3.2% compared with April 2021»

«Year over year, the homeowners’ replacement cost index rose 11.3%»

«Furniture prices (+9.8%) posted their fastest growth rate since 1982»

«prices for fresh or frozen chicken rose 5.0% compared with May 2020»

2021-06-21__ Canada CPI 003

* * * * * * *

2021-06-21__ Canada CPI 002

Come in tutto l’enclave liberal occidentale, i costi al consumo sono saliti significativamente soprattutto a causa dei rincari dei carburanti, +43.4% anno su anno.

Carburanti che sono gravati da una severa tassazione.

Si noti come i prezzi al consumo si siano innalzati a seguito dei rincari dei costi di produzione, connotando in questa maniera una inflazione strutturale e, quindi, duratura.

*


Statistics Canada ha rilasciato il Report Consumer Price Index, May 2021.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.6% on a year-over-year basis in May, up from a 3.4% gain in April. This was the largest yearly increase since May 2011. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.5% year over year.

Although base-year effects continue to impact the 12-month price movement for some specific consumer goods, such as gasoline, furniture and beef products, the increase in year-over-year price growth in May was led by rising prices for shelter and passenger vehicles. Unlike March and April 2021, when most of the year-over-year gains in the CPI were characterized by the large upward base-year effects caused by price declines falling out of the 12-month movement, base-year effects affected the 12-month price movement for only a few key goods and services in May 2021. While prices began to recover in May 2020 from the initial pandemic-related declines, they remained below pre-pandemic levels. In May 2021, these lower prices were the basis for the year-over-year comparison, contributing to the 3.6% year-over-year increase in the CPI.

The monthly CPI rose 0.5% in May 2021, the same growth rate as in April. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.4% in May.

                         Highlights

Prices rose in every major component on a year-over-year basis. Shelter prices rose 4.2% year over year in May, the largest yearly increase since September 2008. Prices for durable goods rose 4.4% year over year, the fastest pace since 1989, against the backdrop of rising consumer confidence and low interest rates.

                         Gasoline prices rise at a slower pace in May

Year over year, prices for gasoline rose at a slower pace in May (+43.4%) than in April (+62.5%). Higher prices in May 2020, when gasoline prices began to recover from the initial impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, were used as the basis for the year-over-year comparison, contributing to the slowdown in year-over-year growth. In May 2020, gasoline prices rose 16.9% month over month, recovering from March (-17.8%) and April (-15.2%), when both supply- and demand-related factors contributed to significantly lower prices at the gas pumps.

On a monthly basis, gasoline prices were up 3.2% compared with April 2021. Much of this gain was driven by supply disruptions to pipelines in the United States and the maintenance of production cuts by international oil producers.

                         Homeowners’ replacement cost index rises at fastest pace since 1987

Year over year, the homeowners’ replacement cost index rose 11.3%, the largest yearly increase since 1987. Prices have risen year over year for 16 consecutive months, as prices for new homes continue to be influenced by shifting consumer preferences and higher construction costs.

                         Consumers pay more for durable goods, led by higher prices for passenger vehicles

Prices for passenger vehicles led the increase in prices for durable goods, rising 5.0% year over year in May, the largest yearly gain in the purchase of passenger vehicles index since September 2016. The increase was partly the result of supply chain issues related to a global shortage of semiconductor chips.

Furniture prices (+9.8%) posted their fastest growth rate since 1982, with prices for upholstered furniture (+10.3%) contributing the most to the increase. The gain in furniture prices was mainly driven by a base-year effect. In May a year earlier, when retail stores were temporarily closed as in-person shopping was suspended, prices fell because of large discounts. While the furniture price index grew at a faster pace primarily as a result of a base-year effect, higher costs of inputs such as lumber also contributed.

                         Meat prices increase at a slower pace in May

Year over year, prices for meat products rose at a slower pace in May (+1.1%) than in April (+2.1%), driven by beef prices. Prices for fresh or frozen beef fell 4.3% on a year-over-year basis, mainly the result of a base-year effect. Higher prices in May 2020, when supply was disrupted by plant closures and capacity reductions related to COVID-19, had a downward impact on the fresh or frozen beef price index in May 2021.

In contrast, prices for fresh or frozen chicken rose 5.0% compared with May 2020, partly contributing to the yearly increase in meat prices.

                         Regional highlights

Year over year, prices rose more in May than in April in seven provinces. Year-over-year price growth was strong in the Atlantic provinces, as prices for fuel oil and rent increased.

                         Traveller accommodation prices increase month over month

Month over month, traveller accommodation prices rose 6.7% in May, up from a 1.5% increase in April—the largest increase recorded since the onset of the pandemic. While prices for traveller accommodation rose on a monthly basis in most provinces, the largest increase was observed in British Columbia (+13.0%), largely driven by increased tourism within designated regional travel zones.

Pubblicato in: Commercio, Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Stati Uniti

Usa. L’incubo della inflazione. Alita sul collo della Harris-Biden Administration.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-06-26.

2021-06-20__ Lo spettro della Inflazione 001

No: l’inflazione non è uno spettro. È arrivata dando un calcio alla porta: è destinata a crescere ed a rimanere a lungo.

*

«The specter of inflation. Is it haunting the U.S. economy?»

«demand for goods and services is rebounding more quickly than the supply of those same goods and services. And when demand outpaces supply, prices rise»

«More Americans are shopping in stores, eating in restaurants and planning vacations. They are spending some of the savings that they accumulated during the pandemic, including money from government stimulus checks»

«Supply, however, is not back. The pandemic disrupted supply chains for many items, including computer chips, paint, lumber and sneakers»

«“Inflation has come in above expectations,” Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, said after a meeting yesterday.»

«Fed officials updated their inflation forecast, predicted that inflation would remain above 3 percent for much of this year»

«Fed officials also announced that they expected to begin raising interest rates in 2023, sooner than previously planned»

«The big question is whether the forces causing inflation to rise are fleeting, as Powell believes is quite likely — or whether they will continue for months and create significant problems for the U.S. economy»

«There are some reasons to believe that the mismatch between demand and supply could last for a while.

On the demand side, Americans have money to spend, thanks partly to all the stimulus that the government has pumped into the economy»

«A lower labor supply could lead to more competition for workers and to wage increases that would translate into price increases»

«If inflation remains elevated for months, it could feed on itself»

«Companies would increase prices, to cover the higher cost of raw materials. Workers would ask for wage increases, to maintain their buying power»

«The Federal Reserve might then need to raise interest rates to prevent an inflationary spiral, and rapid rate increase has caused recessions in the past »

«One reason to be skeptical about dire inflation warnings is that economists have repeatedly overestimated the risks of inflation in the 21st century»

«The coming end to federal stimulus will also serve to reduce demand»

«The spending from the $1.9 trillion bill that President Biden signed in March will mostly expire by early summer»

* * * * * * *

Se nel suo complesso l’articolo riportato è sostanzialmente vero, ci permettiamo di dissentirne dalla sua rozza grossolanità.

Usa. Maggio21. Inflazione in rapida salita. – Il commento di Bloomberg.

Usa. Maggio21. Prezzi alla produzione (PPI) +6.6 anno su anno.

Usa. Maggio21. Prezzi al consumo al +5%. L’inflazione c’è e cresce. – Bloomberg.

*

Non sono solo gli americani scatenati negli acquisti a fare salire i prezzi al dettaglio.

«Producer prices as of May rose 6.6% over the past 12 months»

«goods for intermediate demand increased 21.9 percent»

«prices for nonferrous metals rose 6.9 percent»

«Over 40 percent of the May increase in the index for final demand services is attributable to margins for automobile retailing (partial), which jumped 27.3 percent.»

«the index for unprocessed goods rose 8.4 percent»

«prices for processed goods for intermediate demand increased 21.9 percent»

«Prices for diesel fuel; utility natural gas; structural, architectural, and pre-engineered metal products; ethanol; and beef and veal also moved higher»

«unprocessed energy materials, which climbed 9.6 percent»

«Nearly 30 percent of the May increase in the index for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand can be traced to prices for crude petroleum, which rose 12.8 percent»

*

Orbene, tutti questi aumenti dei costi di produzione sono indipendenti dal volume della domanda: sono aumenti strutturali e duraturi, che affliggono la produzione.

Su queste realtà le manovre finanziarie possono ben poco.

*


The Specter of Inflation.

Is it haunting the U.S. economy?

Here’s a simple way to understand the recent rise in inflation: As the pandemic is receding in the U.S., demand for goods and services is rebounding more quickly than the supply of those same goods and services. And when demand outpaces supply, prices rise.

The demand part of the story is fairly obvious. More Americans are shopping in stores, eating in restaurants and planning vacations. They are spending some of the savings that they accumulated during the pandemic, including money from government stimulus checks. As my colleague Neil Irwin says, “Demand is not just back but more than back, given the fiscal surge and pent-up savings.”

Supply, however, is not back. The pandemic disrupted supply chains for many items, including computer chips, paint, lumber and sneakers. It also disrupted work habits, and not everybody can — or wants to — return immediately to their old jobs.

The taxi and ride-hailing industry is a good example of what happens when rising demand (more travelers) runs up against reduced supply (a shortage of drivers). One rider recently paid $248 for a trip from Midtown Manhattan to Kennedy International Airport, in Queens — almost as much as his plane ticket to California.

“Inflation has come in above expectations,” Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, said after a meeting yesterday. During the meeting, Fed officials updated their inflation forecast, predicted that inflation would remain above 3 percent for much of this year, which is higher than their preferred level of 2 percent. Fed officials also announced that they expected to begin raising interest rates in 2023, sooner than previously planned, as The Times’s Jeanna Smialek explains.

The big question is whether the forces causing inflation to rise are fleeting, as Powell believes is quite likely — or whether they will continue for months and create significant problems for the U.S. economy. Today’s newsletter lays out those two different scenarios.

                         The high-inflation scenario

There are some reasons to believe that the mismatch between demand and supply could last for a while.

On the demand side, Americans have money to spend, thanks partly to all the stimulus that the government has pumped into the economy. Look at what’s happened over the past year to the savings rate, which measures the portion of income that households put aside each month:

“With excess saving they can afford more of everything,” Jason Furman, a Harvard economist and former Obama administration official, wrote this week.

Although companies are increasing the supply of many products to satisfy rising demand, they may not always be able to keep up. One unknown, as Neil points out, is how many people have decided that they prefer the slower pace of pandemic life and choose not to return to full-time work. A lower labor supply could lead to more competition for workers and to wage increases that would translate into price increases.

If inflation remains elevated for months, it could feed on itself. Companies would increase prices, to cover the higher cost of raw materials. Workers would ask for wage increases, to maintain their buying power. The Federal Reserve might then need to raise interest rates to prevent an inflationary spiral, and rapid rate increase has caused recessions in the past.

Furman has called the chances of persistent inflation “under appreciated.”

                         The low-inflation scenario

But you can also tell a plausible story about why inflation won’t last. This is the scenario that most officials at the Fed and in the Biden administration consider to be more likely.

One reason to be skeptical about dire inflation warnings is that economists have repeatedly overestimated the risks of inflation in the 21st century. And several features of the modern American economy seem to restrain inflation. Global competition is one, Powell has argued. Another is American workers’ relative lack of bargaining power, which means that companies can often wait out temporary price spikes without increasing wages.

Fed officials believe that these larger forces will prove more powerful than the short-term disruptions from the economy’s post-pandemic reopening. (Neil has written a helpful explainer on this subject.)

Already, there is some evidence to support the Fed’s sanguine view. Some companies have responded to higher prices, and to the opportunity to make higher profits, by increasing output. To take one example, lumber prices, after rising sharply, are now falling. “As the economy is opening back up again, prices are now moving back toward normal levels in leisure, hospitality, airfare and the like,” Janet Yellen, the Treasury secretary, said in a Senate hearing yesterday.

The coming end to federal stimulus will also serve to reduce demand. The spending from the $1.9 trillion bill that President Biden signed in March will mostly expire by early summer. Once that happens, the decline in government spending will act as a drag on economic growth and help hold down inflation.

                         What really matters

It’s too soon to know which scenario will be closer to reality. Regardless, it’s worth remembering that inflation is not the only way to measure the U.S. economy.

The best outcome for most Americans is a growing economy in which incomes are increasing faster than prices, leading to broadly rising living standards. Stable inflation almost certainly needs to be a part of that happy outcome. But it is not enough. An economy with low inflation and weak income growth — which is to say, the U.S. economy for most of the past few decades — has its own problems.

Officials at the Fed and the Biden administration are trying to create a stronger economy without also causing a different set of problems. We don’t yet know whether they will succeed.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Commercio, Materie Prime

Giappone. Maggio21. Exports +49.6%, Imports +27.9, Balance -187,147 milioni di Yen.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-06-23.

2021-06-18__ Japan Import Export 002

Il Ministry of Finance ha rilasciato il Report Trade Statistics of Japan May 2021 (Provisional) (PDF file).

Contents

Total

Value of Exports and Imports by Area ( Country )

Exports by Principal Commodity ( World )

Imports by Principal Commodity ( World )

Exports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( USA )

Exports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( EU )

Exports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( ASIA )

Exports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( CHINA )

Exports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( R KOREA )

Exports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( ASEAN )

Exports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( MIDDLE EAST )

Exports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( RUSSIA )

Imports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( USA )

Imports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( EU )

Imports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( ASIA )

Imports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( CHINA )

Imports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( R KOREA )

Imports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( ASEAN )

Imports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( MIDDLE EAST )

Imports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( RUSSIA )

Indexes of Trade

Indexes of Trade ( WORLD )

Indexes of Trade ( USA )

Indexes of Trade ( EU )

Indexes of Trade ( ASIA )

Indexes of Trade ( CHINA )

* * * * * * *

A maggio l’Exports ammonta a 6,261,276 milioni di Yen (+49.6%), mentre l’Imports vale 6,448,423 milioni di Yen (+27.9%).

* * * * * * *

Per quanto  riguarda le esportazioni, l’Asia ne assorbe il 58.11% e la Cina il 22.24%; gli Stati Uniti il 17.64% e la Unione Europea il 9.85%.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Commercio, Devoluzione socialismo

Inflazione. Il costo di un container da Shanghai a Rotterdam è 10,522 Usd, +547%.

Sandro Mela.

2021-06-21.

Cina 017

L’enclave liberal socialista europea è indifesa economicamente nei confronti della Cina.

Il G7 ha dichiarato guerra economica alla Cina? Bene, questa è una delle prime risposte.

Tutto concorre alla implosione del sistema economico occidentale.

2021-06-15__ Navi 001

* * * * * * *

2021-06-15__ Navi 002

«Out-of-control shipping costs fire up»

«Zero slack in shipping system to keep freight pricey into 2022»

«Economists weigh inflation risk of long period of costly rates»

«The skyrocketing price of shipping goods across the globe may hit your pocketbook sooner than you think»

«Transporting a 40-foot steel container of cargo by sea from Shanghai to Rotterdam now costs a record $10,522, a whopping 547% higher than the seasonal average over the last five years»

«With upwards of 80% of all goods trade transported by sea, freight-cost surges are threatening to boost the price»

«retail price would have had to double to add in higher freight costs»

«A confluence of factors — soaring demand, a shortage of containers, saturated ports and too few ships and dock workers — have contributed to the squeeze on transportation capacity on every freight»

«The pain is most acutely felt on longer-distance routes, making shipping from Shanghai to Rotterdam 67% more expensive than to the U.S. West Coast»

«Often dismissed as having an insignificant impact on inflation because they were a tiny part of the overall expense, rising shipping costs are now forcing some economists to pay them a bit more attention»

«At the retail level, vendors are faced with three choices: halt trade, raise prices or absorb the cost to pass it on later, all of which would effectively mean more expensive goods»

«anchovies from Peru have largely stopped being imported into Europe because with the higher freight costs they’re not competitive relative to what’s available locally Peru have largely stopped being imported into Europe because with the higher freight costs they’re not competitive relative to what’s available locally»

«European olive growers can no longer afford to export to the U.S.»

«Few industry observers expect container rates to retreat much any time soon»

«→→ Higher shipping costs are here to stay, sparking price increases ←←»

«For some lower-value furniture makers, freight now makes up about 62% of the retail value»

«Some firms in Europe are resorting to extreme methods, like using truck convoys to get products including automotive parts, bikes and scooters from China»

* * * * * * *

«→→ Higher shipping costs are here to stay, sparking price increases ←←»

L’unico punto controverso è, a nostro modo di vedere le cose,

«Out-of-control shipping costs fire up»

Questa affermazione sembrerebbe essere arbitraria.

Dietro questa gigantesca crescita dei costi di trasporti marittimi si intravede, nemmeno poi tanto mascherata, la mano dei cinesi, stufi marci dei comportamenti di questo enclave liberal occidentale.

*


Out-of-Control Shipping Costs Fire Up Prices From Coffee to Toys. – Bloomberg.

– Zero slack in shipping system to keep freight pricey into 2022

– Economists weigh inflation risk of long period of costly rates

*

The skyrocketing price of shipping goods across the globe may hit your pocketbook sooner than you think — from that cup of coffee you get each morning to the toys you were thinking of buying your kids.

Transporting a 40-foot steel container of cargo by sea from Shanghai to Rotterdam now costs a record $10,522, a whopping 547% higher than the seasonal average over the last five years, according to Drewry Shipping. With upwards of 80% of all goods trade transported by sea, freight-cost surges are threatening to boost the price of everything from toys, furniture and car parts to coffee, sugar and anchovies, compounding concerns in global markets already bracing for accelerating inflation.

“In 40 years in toy retailing I have never known such challenging conditions from the point of view of pricing,” Gary Grant, the founder and executive chairman of the U.K. toy shop The Entertainer, said in a interview. He has had to stop importing giant teddy bears from China because their retail price would have had to double to add in higher freight costs. “Will this have an impact on retail prices? My answer has to be yes.”

A confluence of factors — soaring demand, a shortage of containers, saturated ports and too few ships and dock workers — have contributed to the squeeze on transportation capacity on every freight path. Recent Covid outbreaks in Asian export hubs like China have made matters worse. The pain is most acutely felt on longer-distance routes, making shipping from Shanghai to Rotterdam 67% more expensive than to the U.S. West Coast, for instance.

Often dismissed as having an insignificant impact on inflation because they were a tiny part of the overall expense, rising shipping costs are now forcing some economists to pay them a bit more attention. Although still seen as a relatively minor input, HSBC Holdings Plc estimates that a 205% increase in container shipping costs over the past year could raise euro-area producer prices by as much as 2%.

At the retail level, vendors are faced with three choices: halt trade, raise prices or absorb the cost to pass it on later, all of which would effectively mean more expensive goods, said Jordi Espin, strategic relations manager at the European Shippers’ Council, a Brussels-based trade group that represents about 100,000 retailers, wholesalers and manufacturers.

“These costs are already being passed to consumers,” he said.

Prices for customers are rising in other ways, too. For instance, anchovies from Peru have largely stopped being imported into Europe because with the higher freight costs they’re not competitive relative to what’s available locally, Espin said. Also, European olive growers can no longer afford to export to the U.S., he said.

Meanwhile, shipping bottlenecks and costs are hurting the transport of arabica coffee beans, favored by Starbucks, and robusta beans used to make instant coffee, which are largely sourced from Asia.

Few industry observers expect container rates to retreat much any time soon. Lars Jensen, CEO of consultant Vespucci Maritime in Copenhagen, said on a Flexport Inc. webinar last week that there’s “zero slack in the system.”

Closely held French shipping company CMA CGM SA, which raked in net income of $2.1 billion in the first quarter compared with $48 million in the year-ago period, indicated recently that it expects “sustained demand for the transportation of consumer goods” to continue throughout the year.

Higher Shipping Costs Are Here to Stay, Sparking Price Increases

Freight costs are more painful for companies that move clunky, low-value items like toys and furniture. “If they are bulky products it means you can’t get very many in the container and that will have a significant impact on the landed price of the goods,” said The Entertainer’s Grant.

For some lower-value furniture makers, freight now makes up about 62% of the retail value, according to Alan Murphy, CEO of consultant Sea-Intelligence in Copenhagen.

“You simply can’t survive on this,” he said. “Someone is bleeding very hard.”

Companies are desperately trying to work around the higher costs. Some have stopped exporting to certain locations while others are looking for goods or raw materials from nearer locations, according to Philip Damas, founder and operational head of Drewry Supply Chain Advisors.

“The longer these extreme shipping freight rates last, the more companies will take structural measures to shorten their supply chains,” Damas said. “Few companies can absorb a 15% increase in total delivered costs for internationally traded products.”

Some firms in Europe are resorting to extreme methods, like using truck convoys to get products including automotive parts, bikes and scooters from China, said Espin at the European Shippers’ Council.

Central bankers have so far been sanguine about the phenomenon, arguing that the rise in consumer prices tied to supply hiccups won’t last. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on June 10 that while supply-chain bottlenecks would push up production prices and the headline inflation rate is expected to rise further in the second half of this year, the effect will fade.

Several factors explain the relative lack of concern. Shipping costs only constitute a small fraction of the final price of a manufactured good, with economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimating in March — when China-Europe rates were about half of current levels — that internationally they made up less than 1%.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Commercio

Cina. Maggio21. Import +51.1%, Export +27.9%, anno su anno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-06-11.

2021-06-08__ Cina Import Export 001

In sintesi.

– Maggio21. Import +51.1%, Export +27.9%, anno su anno

– Maggio21. Saldo 45.53 miliardi di Usd

– the pace of growth for imports from the U.S. slowed to 41% in May from a year ago

* * * * * * *


China buys fewer American goods in May; trade surplus grows.

– China bought $13.11 billion dollars’ worth of goods from the U.S. in May, down from $13.94 billion in April, customs data accessed through Wind Information showed.

– While overall Chinese imports from other countries grew at their fastest pace in 10 years — up 51.1% — the pace of growth for imports from the U.S. slowed to 41% in May from a year ago, versus 52% the prior month.

– The U.S. remains China’s largest trading partner on a single-country basis, despite the trade tensions.

*

China bought fewer American products in May versus the prior month, while exports to the U.S. rose, according to customs data released Monday.

China bought $13.11 billion dollars’ worth of goods from the U.S. in May, down from $13.94 billion in April, data accessed through Wind Information showed. May’s figure marked the lowest monthly amount since October, the data showed.

While overall Chinese imports from other countries grew at their fastest pace in 10 years — up 51.1% — the pace of growth for imports from the U.S. slowed to 41% in May from a year ago, versus 52% the prior month.

As a result, China’s trade surplus with the U.S. rose to $31.78 billion in May, up from $28.11 billion in April. The increase comes despite efforts by former U.S. President Donald Trump to reduce that surplus.

According to the U.S.-based Peterson Institute for International Economics, China is still behind on meeting its agreement to buy more American goods, as laid out in the phase one trade deal signed in January 2020.

The U.S. remains China’s largest trading partner on a single-country basis, despite the trade tensions. In the last two weeks, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Trade Representative Katherine Tai have each spoken separately with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He for the first time under President Joe Biden.

China’s exports to the U.S. rose to $44.89 billion in May, up from $42.05 billion in April. However, the pace of growth slowed to 21% year-on-year, from 31% in April.

Overall Chinese exports also grew at a slower pace, up 27.9% in dollar terms in May from a year earlier, versus a 32.3% rate in April.

Pubblicato in: Commercio

Indonesia. Export +51.94%, Import +29.93%, anno su anno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-23.

2021-05-21__ Indonesia Import Export 001

Statistics Indonesia ha rilasciato i dati relativi l’Export e l’Import per l’aprile 2021.

«The most recent exports are led by Coal Briquettes ($20.3B), Palm Oil ($15.3B), Petroleum Gas ($8.32B), Cars ($4.52B), and Gold ($4.01B). The most common destination for the exports of Indonesia are China ($28.6B), United States ($19.2B), Japan ($16.8B), Singapore ($14.6B), and India ($13.6B).»

2021-05-21__ Indonesia Import Export 002