Pubblicato in: Cina, Commercio, Materie Prime

Cina. Maxipetroliere in rada in attesa di scaricare. La ripresa corre veloce.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-06-06.

2020-06-03__Cina Petroiere in Rada 012

Secondo i media occidentali la Cina sarebbe stata prostrata economicamente dall’epidemia di coronavirus: la sua ripresa sarebbe un obiettivo alle calende greche, ben più tribolato di quello prossimo futuro dell’occidente.

Sta di fatto che i dati macro che affluiscono sono sostanzialmente molto buoni.

Sono chiaramente falsi‘ gridano in molti, accodandosi al trend in atto di parlar male di quella nazione.

Di questi giorni la notizia che Prada a maggio ha incrementato le vendite in Cina del +10%: non male per un paese che sarebbe stato ridotto alla fame.

«Oil tankers queuing off chinese coast evidence of rapid rebound»

«Two dozen or more ships waiting to offload crude cargoes»

«Congestion seen off Shandong province, home to most teapots»

«Queues of tankers have formed off China’s busiest oil ports as the vessels wait to offload crude for refineries that are quickly ramping up production amid a rapid rebound in fuel demand»

«Two dozen or more crude-laden tankers are waiting to discharge at terminals on China’s east coast that supply state-owned and independent refiners in the region, according shipbrokers and vessel-tracking data»

«Chinese refineries are increasing operations to convert more crude into gasoline and diesel after factories reopened and millions of people returned to work following the easing of restrictions»

«Government policy dictating that the retail price of fuels won’t be cut in line with sub-$40 a barrel oil has also boosted refining margins in the country.»

«The fleet of tankers arrived in Chinese waters during the second half of May and the ships have been idling off ports in Shandong and Liaoning provinces»

«Most of the vessels are Suezmaxes and Very-Large Crude Carriers, which are estimated to be collectively carrying about 4 million tons or more of oil from countries including Russia, Colombia, Angola and Brazil.»

«Run rates rose to a record high of about 76% at the end of May, compared with a low of 42% in February, according to industry consultant SCI99»

«Meanwhile, the queues might get even longer, with the highest number of supertankers»

* * * * * * *

2020-06-03__Cina Petroiere in Rada 013

Le fotografie da satellite sono evidenti.

Sarebbe sempre opportuno non fidarsi mai troppo della propaganda di una parte avversa. Poi, le bugie hanno le gambe corte.

*


Oil Tankers Queuing Off Chinese Coast Evidence of Rapid Rebound

– Two dozen or more ships waiting to offload crude cargoes

– Congestion seen off Shandong province, home to most teapots

*

Queues of tankers have formed off China’s busiest oil ports as the vessels wait to offload crude for refineries that are quickly ramping up production amid a rapid rebound in fuel demand.

Two dozen or more crude-laden tankers are waiting to discharge at terminals on China’s east coast that supply state-owned and independent refiners in the region, according shipbrokers and vessel-tracking data. Asia’s largest economy is leading a recovery in oil consumption, with demand in May almost back to levels seen before the coronavirus triggered stay-at-home orders.

Chinese refineries are increasing operations to convert more crude into gasoline and diesel after factories reopened and millions of people returned to work following the easing of restrictions. Government policy dictating that the retail price of fuels won’t be cut in line with sub-$40 a barrel oil has also boosted refining margins in the country.

“China’s demand recovery and current low oil prices have prompted refiners, especially the independents, to ramp up crude runs,” said Serena Huang, a Singapore-based analyst at analytics firm Vortexa Ltd. “This crude import momentum could be rolling over to June if refiners’ appetite remain strong.”

The fleet of tankers arrived in Chinese waters during the second half of May and the ships have been idling off ports in Shandong and Liaoning provinces, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Most of the vessels are Suezmaxes and Very-Large Crude Carriers, which are estimated to be collectively carrying about 4 million tons or more of oil from countries including Russia, Colombia, Angola and Brazil.

Shandong is home to the Qingdao and Rizhao terminals and China’s independent refiners — known as teapots — that have staged a v-shaped recovery. Run rates rose to a record high of about 76% at the end of May, compared with a low of 42% in February, according to industry consultant SCI99.

Meanwhile, the queues might get even longer, with the highest number of supertankers since at least the start of 2017 hauling crude to China from almost everywhere across the globe.

“Low oil prices will also be supportive for strategic storage,” said Anoop Singh, who heads East of Suez tanker research at Braemar ACM Shipbroking in Singapore. “This will surely worsen the state of congestion at China’s ports.”

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Commercio

Cambogia. Una economia sana coinvolta nel calo della domanda globale.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-06-05.

Cambogia 001

La Cambogia è uno dei tanti orzaioli purulenti delle moderne teorie economiche occidentali.

Dal 1995 al 2019 ha quintuplicato le entrate nette procapite e dal 1990 ha aumentato di ventisette volte il pil, passando dagli 899 milioni Usd del 1990 agli attuali 24,444 miliardi Usd.

Ed un successo economico di tale portata è stato ottenuto mantenendo il debito pubblico al 35%.

Questa è una ulteriore evidenza empirica di quanto inutile e dannoso sia l’intervento statale nel sistema economico, dogma apodittico delle teorie economiche occidentali. Il governo cambogiano ha lasciato lavorare in pace ed ha favorito la crescita dei posti di lavoro, senza lasciarsi andare a sentimentalismi inutili quanto dannosi.

* * * * * * *

La World Bank ha rilasciato il Report Cambodia in the time of Covid-19.

«Cambodia became a lower middle-income economy in 2015. It sustained an average annual growth rate of 7.6% from 1995-2019. Per capita income increased from $323 in 1995 to $1,623 in 2019»

«While growth was strong at 7.1% in 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic is severely affecting most economic activities in Cambodia.»

«The global epidemiological and economic crisis unleashed by COVID-19 poses the greatest threat to Cambodia’s development in its 30 years of modern history»

«The three most affected sectors—tourism, manufacturing exports, and construction—contributed more than 70 percent of growth and 39.4 percent of total paid employment in 2019. »

«Therefore, in the current year, Cambodia’s economy is likely to register its slowest growth since 1994»

«Poverty could increase between 3 and 11 percentage points from a 50 percent income loss that lasts for six months for households engaged in tourism, wholesale and retail trade, garment, construction, or manufacturing»

«public debt is expected rise to 35 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2022»

«In Cambodia, the first case of coronavirus was confirmed on January 27, 2020, and as of May 12, 2020, there are 122 cases.»

«the outbreak caused sharp decelerations in most of Cambodia’s main engines of growth in the first quarter of 2020, including weakened tourism (and hospitality) and construction activity and, more recently, the export sector»

«The lack of external demand has been amplified by the fact that Cambodia’s exports are significantly concentrated by both products and destinations. The key exported products include garments, footwear, travel goods, and rice»

«The combined U.S. and EU markets comprise about 52 percent of Cambodia’s total merchandise exports»

«The collapse of global trade has significant negative direct and indirect impacts on Cambodia»

* * * * * * *

Come per altre nazioni con economie sostanzialmente sane e ben gestite, anche la Cambogia risente del tracollo del commercio estero, per caduta della domanda globale..

In simile situazione, il governo cambogiano è del tutto impotente a contenere il fenomeno, che è appunto su scala globale.

Questa è una ulteriore lezione di quanto siano intimamente connesse la produzione e la domanda dei beni prodotti.

Questa crisi da Covid-19 è caratterizzata da un sostanziale impoverimento a livello globale, cui consegue la domanda stagnante.

*


World Bank. Cambodia’s Economy in the Time of COVID-19.

Cambodia became a lower middle-income economy in 2015. It sustained an average annual growth rate of 7.6% from 1995-2019. Per capita income increased from $323 in 1995 to $1,623 in 2019. While growth was strong at 7.1% in 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic is severely affecting most economic activities in Cambodia.

*

«The global epidemiological and economic crisis unleashed by COVID-19 poses the greatest threat to Cambodia’s development in its 30 years of modern history. The three most affected sectors—tourism, manufacturing exports, and construction—contributed more than 70 percent of growth and 39.4 percent of total paid employment in 2019. Therefore, in the current year, Cambodia’s economy is likely to register its slowest growth since 1994, contracting between -1 percent (baseline) and -2.9 percent (downside).

Poverty could increase between 3 and 11 percentage points from a 50 percent income loss that lasts for six months for households engaged in tourism, wholesale and retail trade, garment, construction, or manufacturing. The fiscal deficit could reach its highest level in 22 years, and public debt is expected rise to 35 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2022. The authorities have introduced emergency measures to contain the outbreak and provide fiscal assistance to affected households, workers, and enterprises. To facilitate a robust recovery, the government will need to continue to ensure macroeconomic and financial sector stability and accelerate trade and investment reforms as well as encourage faster adoption of digital technologies.

An unprecedented shock

In Cambodia, the first case of coronavirus was confirmed on January 27, 2020, and as of May 12, 2020, there are 122 cases.1 The Cambodian authorities have taken swift action to detect and prevent local outbreaks by imposing a travel ban on visitors from severely infected countries, closing schools, urging citizens to avoid mass gatherings, and postponing mass celebrations of the Khmer New Year ceremony in mid-April, including an imposition of a lockdown during the three-day Khmer New Year celebration period (see box 1 for more details). In April 2020, a “State of Emergency” law was urgently adopted (and ready to be declared, if there are public health emergencies).

While Cambodia has so far avoided a health crisis, it has not been immune from the economic crisis sweeping the global economy.

The growth impact of COVID-19 hinges on the contagion, severity, and duration of the outbreak, the response of societies, and the magnitude and effectiveness of policy actions. The direct costs of preventive measures to contain a local outbreak currently appear manageable. However, the outbreak caused sharp decelerations in most of Cambodia’s main engines of growth in the first quarter of 2020, including weakened tourism (and hospitality) and construction activity and, more recently, the export sector.

The lack of external demand has been amplified by the fact that Cambodia’s exports are significantly concentrated by both products and destinations. The key exported products include garments, footwear, travel goods, and rice.

The combined U.S. and EU markets comprise about 52 percent of Cambodia’s total merchandise exports. In addition, exports rely on imports of intermediate goods (raw materials for Cambodia’s garment, footwear and travel goods industries) which earlier experienced supply chain disruptions. The collapse of global trade has significant negative direct and indirect impacts on Cambodia.»

Pubblicato in: Commercio, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Germania. Maggio. Immatricolazioni auto +39.1% mese su mese.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-06-04.

2020-06-04__Germania auto 013

A maggio e immatricolazioni delle autovetture cresce del +39.1% rispetto al precedente mese di aprile.

Ottimo risultato percentuale, ma scarno dal punto di vista quantitativo, visto che questo settore era in contrazione dal dicembre dello scorso anno.

Sono molti i segni della crisi dell’automotive tedesco.

*

Germania. Industria chiede sussidi per le auto a combustione.

Germania. Entra in funzione la megacentrale carbone. Ambientalisti affranti.

Germania. Dieselgate. Volkswagen condannata a risarcire gli acquirenti.

Germania. Maggio. PMI composito 31.4, Manifatturiero 36.8, Servizi 31.4.

Germania. Settore turistico in grave crisi.

Germania. Si inizia a calcolare la riduzione del gettito fiscale. -98.6 mld.

*

Ma, per quanto concerne l’automotive in senso stretto, le industrie tedesche stanno delocalizzando in fretta a e furia, per quanto in buona compagnia.

Cina mon amour. Maggio. Prada +10%.

Cina. Anche Volkswagen vi programma grandi investimenti.

Daimler, Mercedes Benz, ha ripreso la produzione in Cina.

Cina e Red Bull Gmbh. Un mercato impossibile da trascurare.

Commerci Mondiali. Marzo. -1.4% mese su mese. Bene Cina ed India.

Cina. Multinazionali aprono in continuazione stabilimenti.

Cina. Aprile. Produzione Industriale Annualizzata +3.9%.

*

Poi, farle tornare indietro sarà una operazione ben difficile.

Pubblicato in: Commercio, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Regno Unito. Maggio. Immatricolazioni auto -89% anno su anno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-06-04.

2020-06-04__Regno Unito 013

Il Regno Unito ha accusato in pieno la crisi indotta dal coronavirus.

Non solo.

La crisi ha sostanzialmente bloccato i colloqui in corso per la Brexit, anche se questi sono incagliati sulle richieste del blocco europeo, che il Regno Unito si rifiuta di accettare.

*

Regno Unito. Energie alternative ed instabilità del Grid.

Regno Unito. Marzo. Produzione industriale annuale -8.2%.

Regno Unito. Pil primo trimestre financo ragionevole.

Regno Unito. Dati macro da coma dépassé.

Regno Unito. L’economia britannica calerà del 35% con 2 mln disoccupati.

Crollano Germania, Francia e Regno Unito, mentre la Cina vola.

Macron, Regno Unito, Unione Europea ed il problema della pesca.

Timmermns. Lettere aperta al popolo inglese sulla Brexit.

Brexit. David Frost, negoziatore di Johnson, ribadisce il no alle corti europee.

Brexit. La fermezza di Johnson lascia nel panico l’Unione Europea.

Brexit. Il Regno Unito manda al diavolo le ‘regole’ dell’Unione Europea.

*

Adesso, per il terzo mese consecutivo, le nuove immatricolazioni degli automezzi sono crollate al -89%, facendo seguito al dato di aprile del -97.3%. In pratica, è diventato un mercato inesistente.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Commercio, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Cina, ripresa della produzione con una domanda mondiale depressa.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-06-03.

Cigno. Decollo.

La crisi da Covid-19 ha imposto un più o meno severo lockdown dei comparti produttivi di quasi tutto il mondo. Correttamente, l’attenzione di economisti ed analisti si è focalizzata sul crollo della produzione industriale e sulla disoccupazione che ne consegue. Una conseguenza diretta è l’impoverimento generalizzato, che si ripercuote immediatamente in un calo dei consumi. Ma il calo dei consumi comporta come prima conseguenza una minore richiesta alla produzione, generando in questa maniera una spirale negativa, che tende ad autoalimentarsi.

Per dirla in un linguaggio conviviale, senza denaro in tasca la gente è nella impossibilità di consumare.

Così, paesi economicamente ‘sani’ quali la Svezia o la Malaysia, pur avendo il sistema produttivo integro, entrano a loro volta in crisi perché non trovano più acquirenti per i beni da loro prodotti.

* * * * * * *

Commerci Mondiali. Marzo. -1.4% mese su mese. Bene Cina ed India.

Giappone. Aprile. Export -21.9% (annuale).

Germania. Marzo. Export -11.8%.

Istat. Aprile. Commercio Estero extra-EU. Export su base annua -44.2%.

Svezia. Economia -7%. Disoccupati ufficiali 7.9%, reali 17%.

Crisi globale del debito. Chi avesse pensato di scapolarsela avrebbe duri risvegli.

Cina. La ripresa dipende da quella delle altre nazioni.

Eurostat. Marzo. Produzione Industriale EU19 -11.8%, EU27 -12.9%, yoy.

Cina. Aprile. Vendite al dettaglio risalite dal -20.5% di febbraio agli attuali -7.5%.

India. Aprile. Consumi elettrici -24%.

Eurostat. Soglie di povertà nei paesi dell’Unione Europea.

Repubblica Ceka. Produzione Industriale -10.8%, Ordinativi -15.7% yoy.

Italia. Marzo. Vendite al dettaglio. Mensile -20.5%, Annuale -18.4%.

Peru. Epidemia da coronavirus quasi fuori controllo.

Indonesia. Esportazioni -5.74% yoy. Dodicesimo mese consecutivo di calo.

* * * * * * *

«China’s May factory activity cools as weak demand curbs output»

«China’s factory activity grew at a slower pace in May but momentum in the services and construction sectors quickened, pointing to an uneven recovery in the world’s second-largest economy»

«Manufacturing slowed for a second month although activity has revived from record lows in February»

«Export orders logged the fifth consecutive month of contraction, with a sub-index standing at 35.3 in May, well below the 50-point mark, as the coronavirus pandemic continued to take a toll on global demand»

«Judging by the PMI sub-indices, the absolute levels of demand-related indices are way below the production-related ones, indicating a pronounced constraining impact from demand on production»

«Factories reduced headcount for the first time since they reopened»

«Hammered by the health crisis, China’s economy shrank 6.8% in the first quarter from a year earlier, the first contraction since quarterly records began»

«While most businesses have reopened, many manufacturers are struggling with reduced or cancelled overseas orders as lockdowns push the global economy into recession»

«more than 80% of factories have resumed production to 80% of levels prior to the coronavirus outbreak»

«New orders for the construction sector rose to 58, compared with 53.2 the previous month, while companies also added headcount at a faster clip»

* * * * * * *

«reduced or cancelled overseas orders as lockdowns push the global economy into recession»

«pronounced constraining impact from demand on production»

Se è vero che l’offerta possa condizionare i consumi, sarebbe altrettanto vero ricordare che tale asserzione sarebbe valida solo sotto la condizione che i consumatori possano spendere.

Sarebbe da usare una grande attenzione.

Regole ragionevolmente valide nei periodi di normalità, cessano di esserlo nei periodi di turbolenza.

*


China’s May factory activity cools as weak demand curbs output.

China’s factory activity grew at a slower pace in May but momentum in the services and construction sectors quickened, pointing to an uneven recovery in the world’s second-largest economy as businesses emerge from coronavirus-led shutdowns.

Manufacturing slowed for a second month although activity has revived from record lows in February, when the government imposed tough travel restrictions, quarantine rules and factory suspensions to curb the spread of the respiratory illness.

The official manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) eased to 50.6 in May from 50.8 in April, National Bureau of Statistics data showed on Sunday, but held above the 50-point mark that separates expansion from contraction on a monthly basis. Analysts had expected a PMI reading of 51.

Export orders logged the fifth consecutive month of contraction, with a sub-index standing at 35.3 in May, well below the 50-point mark, as the coronavirus pandemic continued to take a toll on global demand.

“Judging by the PMI sub-indices, the absolute levels of demand-related indices are way below the production-related ones, indicating a pronounced constraining impact from demand on production,” said Zhang Liqun, an analyst with the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP), adding that more than 50% of companies have reported a lack of demand.

Factories reduced headcount for the first time since they reopened, with a sub-index falling to 49.4 from 50.2 in April, the survey showed.

In May, the PMI index for medium-sized and small enterprises fell to 48.8 and 50.8, respectively, while large companies reported a faster expansion in activity.

In an encouraging sign, the forward-looking total new orders gauge showed an improvement to 50.9 from April’s 50.2, suggesting domestic demand could be picking up soon.

“In the near term, we expect monetary policy to continue the ‘volume’ of credit expansion in order to stabilise growth and help fiscal expansion. In this regard, China’s domestic demand will likely continue to rebound,” analysts with investment bank CICC said in a note after the data release.

Hammered by the health crisis, China’s economy shrank 6.8% in the first quarter from a year earlier, the first contraction since quarterly records began. Analysts believe it will be months before broader activity returns to pre-crisis levels, even if a fresh wave of infections can be avoided.

While most businesses have reopened, many manufacturers are struggling with reduced or cancelled overseas orders as lockdowns push the global economy into recession. Domestic demand also remains depressed amid increased job losses and worries about a second wave of infections.

Zhao Qinghe, an official with the NBS, said more than 80% of factories have resumed production to 80% of levels prior to the coronavirus outbreak. However, indexes for imports and exports were at record lows as global demand continues to shrink.

Highlighting the uncertain outlook, the government’s work report earlier this month did not set an annual growth goal, the first time China has not set a target since 2002.

But Beijing announced additional fiscal measures to bolster its economy, equal to about 4.1% of GDP, according to Reuters calculations, its largest stimulus package since the global financial crisis.

Higher spending, particularly on infrastructure, is expected to give activity a solid boost in the second half of the year and into 2021. A sub-index for construction activity rose to 60.8 in May from 59.7 the previous month, a separate survey on non-manufacturing activity showed, pointing to an accelerating pick-up in a sector that Beijing is counting on to boost growth.

New orders for the construction sector rose to 58, compared with 53.2 the previous month, while companies also added headcount at a faster clip.

The official non-manufacturing PMI rose to 53.6 in May, from 53.2 in April, suggesting the sector’s business and consumer confidence may slowly be improving.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Commercio, Unione Europea

Commissione Europea. Export -15%, Import -14%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-06-03.

2020-06-01__Cina 013

«Europe issues gloomier projections of its trade slump with world.»

«EU sees 2020 exports, imports dropping up to 868 billion euros»

«New forecast shows worldwide damage caused by coronavirus »

«The European Union said its trade with the rest of the world would slump this year by as much as 868 billion euros ($963 billion), or more than 10%, in a gloomier updated forecast that offers fresh evidence of the global economic damage caused by the coronavirus»

«EU exports of goods and services will fall by 282 billion euros to 470 billion euros, or 9% to 15%, while imports of both will decline by 313 billion euros to 398 billion euros, or 11% to 14%, the European Commission said on Friday»

«The new forecast is based on a projection by the commission, the 27-nation EU’s executive arm in Brussels, that global trade will drop 10% to 16% this year»

«The World Trade Organization predicted in early April that global merchandise commerce would decline as much as 32% this year.»

* * * * * * *

Sicuramente il coronavirus ha determinato un rallentamento consistente dei commerci internazionali.

Commerci Mondiali. Marzo. -1.4% mese su mese. Bene Cina ed India.

Su resta tuttavia molto perplessi nel leggere i dati macro della Cina.

Cina. Aprile. Raffinerie. Export +10.2% MoM, +29.7% YoY.

Cina. Aprile. Produzione Industriale Annualizzata +3.9%.

E, come se non bastasse, ad aprile l’export cinese su base annuale è aumentato del 3.5%.

Eppure i mercati internazionali sono gli stessi sia per il blocco europeo sia per la Cina.

*


Bloomberg. Europe Issues Gloomier Projections of Its Trade Slump With World.

– EU sees 2020 exports, imports dropping up to 868 billion euros

– New forecast shows worldwide damage caused by coronavirus

*

The European Union said its trade with the rest of the world would slump this year by as much as 868 billion euros ($963 billion), or more than 10%, in a gloomier updated forecast that offers fresh evidence of the global economic damage caused by the coronavirus.

EU exports of goods and services will fall by 282 billion euros to 470 billion euros, or 9% to 15%, while imports of both will decline by 313 billion euros to 398 billion euros, or 11% to 14%, the European Commission said on Friday.

The new forecast is based on a projection by the commission, the 27-nation EU’s executive arm in Brussels, that global trade will drop 10% to 16% this year. The World Trade Organization predicted in early April that global merchandise commerce would decline as much as 32% this year.

In an initial projection in mid-April of the pandemic’s impact, the commission said the bloc’s trade with the rest of the world would fall by 525 billion euros this year. That outlook foresaw EU exports of goods and services dropping 9.2% and imports declining 8.8%.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Commercio

Svizzera. Aprile. Vendite al dettaglio -19.9%. L’UN a Ginevra torna a funzionare

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-06-02.

2020-06-02__Svizzera 013

A causa dell’epidemia da coronavirus, la Svizzera aveva messo in atto a partire da metà marzo il lockdown, provvedimento contestato da molti.

«La Svizzera – che registra ad oggi oltre 1.500 decessi per covid-19 e oltre 30 mila contagi – ha come altri Paesi cominciato ad allentare alcune delle misure restrittive».

È però dal sei di giugno che quasi tutte le attività potranno essere riprese, sia pure con limiti blandi.

«Ciò, tra le altre cose, consentirà alle agenzie delle Nazioni unite e ad altre organizzazioni internazionali con sede a Ginevra di tornare a una parvenza di normalità».

L’effetto indiretto del lockdown si è ripercosso in modo severo sulle vendite al dettaglio, che ad aprile sono crollate del -19.9%.

*


In Svizzera proteste contro lockdown.

Centinaia davanti al Parlamento a Berna.

Centinaia di manifestanti sono scesi in piazza a Berna e in altre città svizzere per protestare contro le restrizioni in vigore nel paese per contrastare la diffusione del coronavirus. Lo riferiscono i media locali.

Diverse centinaia di persone si sono radunate davanti al parlamento nella capitale Berna. I dimostranti hanno dato voce alla loro rabbia per le misure introdotte a metà marzo, compresa la chiusura di scuole, ristoranti ed esercizi commerciali, escluse farmacie e negozi di alimentari. La Svizzera – che registra ad oggi oltre 1.500 decessi per covid-19 e oltre 30 mila contagi – ha come altri Paesi cominciato ad allentare alcune delle misure restrittive, consentendo per esempio a barbieri, parrucchieri e fiorai di riaprire due settimane fa, mentre da lunedì potranno riaprire scuole, ristoranti, musei e biblioteche, ma a condizioni specifiche. Rimangono vietati gli assembramenti di oltre cinque persone. I manifestanti oggi in piazza sostengono che le restrizioni violano i diritti fondamentali.

*


La Svizzera ha deciso di riaprire quasi tutto dal 6 giugno.

Anche cinema e teatri. La presidente Sommaruga: “Ora sappiamo che è possibile controllare questo virus”.

La Svizzera revocherà la maggior parte delle restanti restrizioni per il Covid-19 il 6 giugno prossimo, quando tutte le attività di svago e di intrattenimento potranno riprendere, fermo restando le opportune precauzioni. “La Svizzera è rinata”, ha dichiarato la presidente Simonetta Sommaruga in una conferenza stampa a Berna dopo una riunione del governo.

“Ora sappiamo che è possibile controllare questo virus”, ha aggiunto. Annunciando la terza fase del processo di allentamento, il governo ha dichiarato che dal 6 giugno saranno consentiti eventi con un massimo di 300 persone. Ciò, tra le altre cose, consentirà alle agenzie delle Nazioni unite e ad altre organizzazioni internazionali con sede a Ginevra di tornare a una parvenza di normalità.

Inoltre, “tutte le attività ricreative e di intrattenimento e le attrazioni turistiche potranno riaprire”, ha affermato il governo. Dal 6 giugno, inoltre, possono riaprire tutte le scuole, insieme con teatri, cinema, campeggi, zoo, giardini botanici, piscine, campeggi e locali notturni. Gruppi di più di quattro persone possono sedere insieme nei ristoranti, mentre gli strip club e i servizi di prostituzione possono riprendere gli affari come al solito.

Sebbene le discoteche possano riaprire, devono aderire al limite di 300 persone, chiudere a mezzanotte e compilando un elenco di presenze, ha detto il governo. La Svizzera ha avviato la graduale revoca delle restrizioni il 27 aprile, quando i barbieri, i fioristi, i medici di famiglia e i negozi di ferramenta sono stati autorizzati a riaprire. In una seconda fase, l’11 maggio, è arrivato il turno di ristoranti, musei e scuole elementari potrebbero riaprire, a condizione che fosse predisposta un’adeguata protezione personale.

Le persone sono comunque sempre esortate a mantenere le distanze fisiche, indossare una mascherina laddove non sia possibile, attenersi alle norme sull’igiene delle mani e, se possibile, continuare a lavorare da casa. Ai ristoranti e ad altre aziende viene chiesto di facilitare il tracciamento dei contagi registrando le informazioni di contatto dei propri clienti.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Commercio

Istat. Aprile. Commercio Estero extra-EU. Export su base annua -44.2%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-05-30.

2020-05-29__Export 001

– Export -37.6%, Import -12.7%. Export beni di consumo durevoli (-77.0%) e beni strumentali (-45.6%); Import  energia (-36.3%), beni di consumo durevoli (-26.7%) e beni strumentali (-19.9%)

– L’export è in netto calo anche su base annua (-44.2%): beni di consumo durevoli (-83.5%) e beni strumentali (-56.4%); Import energia (-59.4%) e beni di consumo durevoli (-56.8%)

– Export verso paesi ASEAN (-47.8%), Turchia (-47.6%), paesi MERCOSUR (-45.6%), paesi OPEC (-44.9%), Svizzera (-44.0%) e Stati Uniti (-43.4%)

2020-05-29__Export 002

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Con il lockdown di un mese ci si sarebbe aspettati una riduzione dell’export anno su anno di 1/12 (un mese su dodici mesi), ossia dell’8.3%.


Istat. Commercio estero extra Ue

Ad aprile 2020 si stima, per l’interscambio commerciale con i paesi extra Ue27 , una netta riduzione congiunturale per le esportazioni (-37,6%) e, in misura meno ampia, per le importazioni (-12,7%).

La marcata contrazione su base mensile dell’export riguarda tutti i raggruppamenti principali di industrie ed è particolarmente accentuata per beni di consumo durevoli (-77,0%) e beni strumentali (-45,6%). Dal lato del’import, si rilevano ampie flessioni congiunturali per energia (-36,3%), beni di consumo durevoli (-26,7%) e beni strumentali (-19,9%); in aumento soltanto i beni di consumo non durevoli (+5,7%).

Nel trimestre febbraio-aprile 2020, la dinamica congiunturale dell’export è negativa (-20,1%) e sintesi di flessioni che interessano tutti i raggruppamenti, le piu marcate per beni di consumo durevoli (-37,5%) ed energia (-28,9%). Nello stesso periodo, anche per le importazioni, il calo congiunturale (-18,1%) coinvolge tutti i raggruppamenti ed è più ampio per energia (-33,6%) e beni di consumo durevoli (-28,6%).

Ad aprile 2020, l’export è in netto calo anche su base annua (-44,2%). La caduta è generalizzata e più ampia per beni di consumo durevoli (-83,5%) e beni strumentali (-56,4%). Anche l’import segna una netta flessione tendenziale (-32,7%), con forti cali per quasi tutti i raggruppamenti, i più ampi per energia (-59,4%) e beni di consumo durevoli (-56,8%). Solo gli acquisti di beni di consumo non durevoli risultano in aumento (+4,3%).

La stima del saldo commerciale ad aprile 2020 è pari a -148 milioni (era +2.928 milioni ad aprile 2019). Diminuisce l’avanzo nell’interscambio di prodotti non energetici (da +6.354 milioni per aprile 2019 a +1.179 milioni per aprile 2020).

Ad aprile 2020 l’export verso paesi ASEAN (-47,8%), Turchia (-47,6%), paesi MERCOSUR (-45,6%), paesi OPEC (-44,9%), Svizzera (-44,0%) e Stati Uniti (-43,4%), è in forte calo su base annua.

Gli acquisti da Turchia (-65,4%), paesi OPEC (-54,7%), Russia (-45,4%) e India (-44,2%) registrano flessioni tendenziali molto più ampie della media delle importazioni dai paesi extra Ue27.

Ad aprile 2020, per l’area extra Ue, al netto del Regno Unito, si stima che l’export diminuisca del 37,5% su base mensile e del 44,3% su base annua. Anche l’import registra ampie flessioni sia sul mese (-12,6%) sia sull’anno (-32,2%). Il saldo commerciale è negativo e pari a – 741 milioni (+1.879 milioni ad aprile 2019).

Pubblicato in: Cina, Commercio, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Cina e Red Bull Gmbh. Un mercato impossibile da trascurare.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-05-29.

Brügel Pieter. 1568. Banchetto.

«Red Bull GmbH is a privately held Austrian company known for its range of energy drinks…..  In 2019, a total of 7.5 billion cans of Red Bull were sold worldwide in over 171 countries.The headquarters of Red Bull GmbH are located in Fuschl am See, Austria. ….

Austrian entrepreneur Dietrich Mateschitz and Thai businessman Chaleo Yoovidhya founded Red Bull GmbH in 1984. While working for German manufacturer Blendax (later acquired by Procter & Gamble) in 1982, Mateschitz traveled to Thailand and met Chaleo, owner of TC Pharmaceutical.

Between 1984 and 1987, Red Bull GmbH modified the formula for Krating Daeng to better match European tastes by carbonating the beverage and making it less sweet. In 1987, the company introduced their adapted energy drink into Austria under the name Red Bull. It found huge success there by marketing to young professionals. The brand expanded throughout Europe during the early 1990s, exploding into the United States market during 1997, grabbing 75% of the market within a year.» [Fonte]

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«Red Bull Founders Rebuild in China After Battle of Billionaires»

«Voovidhya family to invest $150 million in China over 3 years»

«Brand, rights in country have been in dispute since breakup»

«Red Bull’s founding family said they will invest $150 million to re-establish the energy-drink brand in China, where they’ve been involved in a battle of billionaires for several years with a former partner»

«Thailand’s Voovidhya family’s TCP Group formed a venture in China with the Reignwood Group, controlled by Chanchai Ruayrungruang (also known as Yan Bin) in the mid-1990s»

«The brand, products and distribution rights have been the subjects of litigation in various centers since the partnership broke up, with Reignwood retaining control of the China business»

«The Voovidhya family was ranked Asia’s sixth-richest dynasty, with a fortune of $24.5 billion, according to a Bloomberg report in August»

«TCP said in its statement that its sales in China last year, the first full period since the end of the venture, were about $150 million»

«It sold about 7.5 billion cans and containers of drinks, propelled by growth in emerging markets like Brazil, India and Africa.»

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Se si riuscisse a separare le beghe interne e gli attriti legali da quelle che sono le strategie imprenditoriali di una società con ambizioni internazionali, emergerebbe chiaramente come il mercato cinese non possa essere trascurato.

Ma la Cina è cresciuta e continua a crescere: è finita l’epoca in cui la si sarebbe potuta colonizzare. Adesso investire in Cina implica la sua accettazione e, soprattutto, l’adeguamento alle sue regole.

Questo comporta una dicotomia insanabile tra le linee politiche del governo ove la società internazionale ha sede legale ed operativa, e le azioni strategiche della società stessa.

Ma alla fine vince sempre il power that be.

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Red Bull Founders Rebuild in China After Battle of Billionaires.

– Voovidhya family to invest $150 million in China over 3 years

– Brand, rights in country have been in dispute since breakup

*

Red Bull’s founding family said they will invest $150 million to re-establish the energy-drink brand in China, where they’ve been involved in a battle of billionaires for several years with a former partner.

Thailand’s Voovidhya family’s TCP Group formed a venture in China with the Reignwood Group, controlled by Chanchai Ruayrungruang (also known as Yan Bin) in the mid-1990s. The partnership, Red Bull Vitamin Drink Co. Ltd., expired in September 2018, TCP said in a statement. The brand, products and distribution rights have been the subjects of litigation in various centers since the partnership broke up, with Reignwood retaining control of the China business.
The Voovidhya family was ranked Asia’s sixth-richest dynasty, with a fortune of $24.5 billion, according to a Bloomberg report in August. Chanchai, who also owns Wentworth Club Ltd., is worth $2.9 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

TCP said in its statement that its sales in China last year, the first full period since the end of the venture, were about $150 million. Closely held Reignwood’s revenue from Red Bull in the country was 22.3 billion yuan ($3.1 billion) in 2019, according to a report by Yicai Global.

TCP said it would make the $150 million investment over three years and it would go into new energy-drink products, manufacturing facilities and marketing with its current “strategic partners,” Guangzhou Yao Energy Co. Ltd. and Pusheng Food Sales Co. Ltd. It has also created the TCP’s China Intellectual Property Protection Fund, according to the company.

Red Bull GmbH had worldwide revenue of about 6.07 billion euro ($6.6 billion) last year, according to its website. It sold about 7.5 billion cans and containers of drinks, propelled by growth in emerging markets like Brazil, India and Africa.

Thai entrepreneur and occasional duck farmer Chaleo Yoovidhya, who died in 2012, teamed up with Austrian marketing whiz Dietrich Mateschitz in the 1980s to form the company after Mateschitz discovered Chaleo’s energy drink while looking to counteract jet lag on a business trip.

Pubblicato in: Commercio

Commerci Mondiali. Marzo. -1.4% mese su mese. Bene Cina ed India.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-05-28.

2020-05-26__Global Trade 013

«CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

– World trade volume decreased 1.4% month-on-month (growth was -0.7% in February, initial estimate -1.5%) and growth was -2.5% in 2020Q1 (-0.5% in 2019Q4).

– World trade momentum was -2.5% (non-annualised; -1.3% in February, initial estimate -1.4%).

– World industrial production decreased 0.2% month-on-month (having increased 0.1% in February, initial estimate 0.2%) and growth was -4.2% in 2020Q1 (0.3% in 2019Q4).

– World industrial production momentum was -4.2% (non-annualised; -2.4% in February, initial estimate -2.6%).»

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Questi sono i dati mondiali.

La lettura della mappa allegata è molto utile.

Mentre USA, blocco europeo ed Australia evidenziano decrescite nell’ordine del -2%, Cina, India ed altri paesi asiatici hanno crescite del +2%, e gli stati dell’America latina sviluppi di circa dell’1%.

Gli stati occidentalizzati hanno retto peggio a causa dei loro problemi strutturali e politici.

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The CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, World Trade Monitor, ha pubblicato il report di marzo.

«World trade was 1.4% lower in March compared to February. This decline is hardly greater than in January and February, when world trade also declined by an average of 1.2%. The decline in industrial production of 0.2% is also in line with the previous months. There are major regional differences in the development of trade and production. The downturn is particularly strong in Europe, with trade falling by more than 7% and industrial production falling by over 12%. In China, trade and production rebounded in March, following a sharp decline in January and a consolidation in February. It is striking that the fluctuations in industrial production, both the downturn in the advanced economies and the growth in the emerging economies, are stronger than the fluctuations in trade. We expect a stronger decline in trade and production in April and May, in line with a tightening of COVID-19 measures in many regions. The monitor refers to March, but we provide a look ahead in these special times. Partial figures for April show a mostly negative picture, and leading indicators such as Global New Export Orders point to a stronger decline in global trade in the coming months.

– World trade volume decreased 1.4% month-on-month (growth was -0.7% in February, initial estimate -1.5%) and growth was -2.5% in 2020Q1 (-0.5% in 2019Q4).

– World trade momentum was -2.5% (non-annualised; -1.3% in February, initial estimate -1.4%).

– World industrial production decreased 0.2% month-on-month (having increased 0.1% in February, initial estimate 0.2%) and growth was -4.2% in 2020Q1 (0.3% in 2019Q4).

– World industrial production momentum was -4.2% (non-annualised; -2.4% in February, initial estimate -2.6%).»

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Bloomberg. Global Trade Volumes Fall the Most in More Than a Decade

Global trade took its biggest hit in more than a decade in March, when the spread of the coronavirus began to take an increasingly heavy toll on businesses.

World trade volumes fell 4.3% from a year earlier, the most since 2009, according to the World Trade Monitor. On the month, they fell 1.4% for a third straight decline. The slump is only an initial sign of the damage from the lockdowns to contain the disease, and surveys have since shown a deep recession is underway.

The CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, which publishes the trade monitor, said partial figures for April show a “mostly negative picture,” and leading indicators point to a stronger decline in global trade in the coming months.