Pubblicato in: Agricoltura, Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Stati Uniti

Usa. Bistecche ad 8 Usd la libbra, contro i passati 4.47 Usd la libbra.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-08-13.

Carne. Prezzi negli StatiUniti 001

Nello agosto 2017 negli Stati Uniti le bistecche prezzavano 4.47 dollari alla libbra, contro gli attuali otto dollari la libbra.

Il lettore europeo troverà questi prezzi assolutamente bassi, ma essi costituiscono un grande onere per le massaie americane.

* * * * * * *

I consumatori statunitensi, alle prese con l’inflazione, devono fare i conti con l’aumento dei prezzi della carne bovina, poiché gli allevatori stanno riducendo le loro mandrie a causa della siccità e dei costi elevati dei mangimi, una decisione che renderà più rigide le forniture di bestiame per anni. Il calo del numero di capi di bestiame, combinato con i costi elevati di altre spese di produzione, illustra il motivo per cui il recente calo dei prezzi dei cereali a livelli mai visti dall’invasione dell’Ucraina da parte della Russia, grande esportatore di mais e grano, potrebbe non tradursi immediatamente in una riduzione dei prezzi dei prodotti alimentari al supermercato.

Il mangime è la componente più costosa dell’allevamento di una mucca da carne, quindi i prezzi più bassi dei cereali spesso contribuiscono a ridurre i prezzi della carne. Ma le aziende produttrici di carne devono pagare il prezzo più alto per gli animali quando ce ne sono meno da macellare. Le aziende di trasformazione pagano di più anche per la manodopera, il carburante e altre voci.

I prezzi dei futures del mais sono scesi del 26% da quando hanno toccato i massimi di 10 anni in aprile. I prezzi sono ancora in crescita del 9% rispetto a un anno fa, a circa 6 dollari per bushel. I produttori probabilmente liquideranno ancora più bestiame a causa della siccità. I prezzi della carne macinata sono già aumentati del 10% rispetto all’anno scorso.

Recentemente ha pagato circa 475 dollari a tonnellata per il mangime per pecore fatto con mais e altri ingredienti, con un aumento del 40% rispetto a un anno fa. I prezzi dei polli sono saliti del 20.1% nell’ultimo trimestre rispetto a un anno prima.

A Eugene, nell’Oregon, Blair Hickok, 40 anni, studentessa di contabilità e madre, ha dichiarato che la sua spesa mensile è salita del 40% a oltre 1.200 dollari a causa dell’aumento dei prezzi di manzo, pollo, uova e prodotti come i bratwurst Johnsonville. La sua famiglia ha smesso di mangiare fuori per risparmiare.

* * * * * * *

«U.S. consumers grappling with soaring inflation face more pain from high beef prices as ranchers are reducing their cattle herds due to drought and lofty feed costs, a decision that will tighten livestock supplies for years. The decline in cattle numbers, combined with stiff costs for other production expenses, illustrate why a recent fall in grain prices to levels not seen since Russia’s invasion of major corn and wheat exporter Ukraine may not immediately translate into lower food prices at the grocery store»

«Feed is the largest cost component of raising a cow for beef, so lower grain prices often help to reduce meat prices. But meat companies must pay top dollar for animals when there are fewer to slaughter. Processors are also paying more for labor, fuel and other items»

«Corn futures prices have dropped 26% since hitting a 10-year high in April. Prices are still up 9% from a year ago at about $6 per bushel. Producers will likely liquidate even more cattle due to drought. Ground beef prices have already jumped 10% from last year»

«He recently paid about $475 per ton for sheep feed made with corn and other ingredients, up 40% from a year ago. chicken prices soared 20.1% in the last quarter from a year earlier.»

«In Eugene, Oregon, accounting student and mother Blair Hickok, 40, said her monthly grocery bill spiked 40% to more than $1,200 due to climbing prices for beef, chicken, eggs and products like Johnsonville bratwursts. Her family stopped eating out to save money.»

* * * * * * *


Shrinking U.S. cattle herd signals more pain from high beef prices

Chicago, Aug 9 (Reuters) – U.S. consumers grappling with soaring inflation face more pain from high beef prices as ranchers are reducing their cattle herds due to drought and lofty feed costs, a decision that will tighten livestock supplies for years, economists said.

The decline in cattle numbers, combined with stiff costs for other production expenses, illustrate why a recent fall in grain prices to levels not seen since Russia’s invasion of major corn and wheat exporter Ukraine may not immediately translate into lower food prices at the grocery store.

Feed is the largest cost component of raising a cow for beef, so lower grain prices often help to reduce meat prices. But meat companies like Tyson Foods Inc, which reported weaker-than-expected earnings on Monday, must pay top dollar for animals when there are fewer to slaughter. Processors are also paying more for labor, fuel and other items.  

“There’s really a lot of distance between the price of those grains and the price of those products at the meat counter,” said Bernt Nelson, economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation.

Corn futures prices have dropped 26% since hitting a 10-year high in April after the Ukraine war sparked worries about global supplies. Prices are still up 9% from a year ago at about $6 per bushel.

The lower prices benefit livestock producers, though U.S. government data shows ranchers on July 1 had already reduced the nation’s cattle herd by about 2% from a year earlier to its lowest level for that date in about seven years.

Producers will likely liquidate even more cattle due to drought, said Shane Miller, Tyson Foods’ president of fresh meats, on a conference call following the quarterly results. Chief Executive Donnie King projected prices for cattle and beef will rise moving into 2023 and 2024.

Ground beef prices have already jumped 10% from last year, U.S. government data shows. Rising cattle costs eat in to meatpackers’ profit from high beef prices.

Tyson reported its beef unit’s adjusted operating margins dropped to 10.2% in the April to June quarter from 12.7% the previous quarter and 22.6% a year earlier, while live cattle costs increased about $480 million. Margins will decline further to 5% to 7%, the company said.

Margins and meat supplies get a temporary boost as ranchers send more animals to slaughter, instead of keeping them to reproduce, analysts said. But consumers will ultimately be left with less beef, and it takes nearly two years to raise a cow once the liquidation stops, economists said.  

“The prices are here to stay for a while,” said Glenn Brunkow, a farmer who raises cattle and sheep in Wamego, Kansas.

Brunkow, a member of the Kansas Farm Bureau’s board of directors, said high diesel fuel and feed prices continue to drive up his production costs. He recently paid about $475 per ton for sheep feed made with corn and other ingredients, up 40% from a year ago.

Some consumers are switching to chicken or cheaper types of beef to reduce their food costs, meatpacking executives said. Still, Tyson said beef demand remains strong and reported sales volumes rose 1.3% in the last quarter as prices slipped.

“Even though we may be seeing some relief in feed prices, that demand is going to hold (beef) prices where they’re at,” Iowa State University economist Lee Schulz said.

Other protein options have also become pricier. Tyson said its chicken prices soared 20.1% in the last quarter from a year earlier. Wholesale prices for white eggs, meanwhile, reached a record high of $3.40 a dozen on July 21 due to strong retail demand and avian flu outbreaks that killed egg-laying chickens, data firm Urner Barry said.  

In Eugene, Oregon, accounting student and mother Blair Hickok, 40, said her monthly grocery bill spiked 40% to more than $1,200 due to climbing prices for beef, chicken, eggs and products like Johnsonville bratwursts. Her family stopped eating out to save money.

“We cannot sustain this for very long,” said Hickok.

Pubblicato in: Agricoltura, Commercio, Stati Uniti

Usa. Un panino 18 Usd, una libbra di pomodori 12 Usd, patatine fritte 15 Usd.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-08-12.

Lavrov Putin che ridono 011

Saper interpretare correttamente i macrodati è sia una scienza sia una arte che richiedono vaste conoscenze : ma non tutti sono tenuti a dominare questo settore. Ogni persona ha il suo campo in cui eccelle.

Qui riportiamo invece i costi che qualsiasi persona vive tutti i santi giorni quando si prende un sandwich oppure un cartoccio di patatine fritte.

I dati sono stati rilevati a New York.

A nostro sommesso avviso le elezioni di midterm saranno determinate proprio dalla inflazione. Ma non era la Russia che sarebbe dovuta fallire?

* * * * * * *

Nota.

Pound: a unit of weight equal to 16 oz. avoirdupois (0.4536 kg), or 12 oz. troy (0.3732 kg). A troy ounce is a unit of measure used for weighing precious metals that dates back to the Middle Ages. Originally used in Troyes, France, one troy ounce is equal to 31.1034768 grams.

Bagel: a dense bread roll in the shape of a ring, made by boiling dough and then baking it.

Guacamole: a dish of mashed avocado mixed with chopped onion, tomatoes, chilli peppers, and seasoning.

* * * * * * *

Mentre gli affitti e il costo delle corse Uber hanno raggiunto livelli da capogiro, l’aumento dei prezzi dei generi alimentari è uno dei risultati più dolorosi dell’inflazione. A maggio, i prezzi dei generi alimentari nell’area di New York sono aumentati al ritmo annuale più rapido dal 1981. I prezzi dei generi alimentari erano ancora più alti del 9.1% rispetto all’anno precedente a New York e del 10.4% a livello nazionale. Il numero di bambini che visitano le dispense alimentari è aumentato del 55% all’inizio dell’anno rispetto a prima della pandemia.

3.50 dollari per un bagel con crema di formaggio e 1.50 dollari per un caffè caldo in un carretto. Poiché i prezzi elevati di cibo e benzina hanno messo a dura prova il suo budget, a volte salta la colazione o il pranzo per far fronte ai suoi 700 dollari di affitto mensile, o fa acquisti nei negozi da 99 centesimi. Il suo salario orario è recentemente aumentato del 5.4%, da 24.62 a 25.95 dollari.

Gli è costato 3.75 dollari per una pallina di gelato alla fragola, un ordine che è aumentato di 25 centesimi quest’estate. Ha anche comprato una scatola di dolci, tra cui una porzione di tiramisù da 7 dollari, che è aumentata di 50 centesimi. Non volete arrabbiarvi troppo, perché sapete che anche i ristoratori stanno pagando un prezzo elevato, quindi provate empatia, ma siete arrabbiati per l’aumento dei prezzi. Un nuovo frigorifero ha impiegato più di un anno per arrivare. I prezzi del burro sono aumentati, in parte a causa degli alti costi dei mangimi per il bestiame, esacerbati dalla siccità in alcune parti degli Stati Uniti.

18 dollari per un panino. Ha speso 30.48 dollari: un caffè freddo a 4 dollari, un panino con gamberi e scalogno a 18 dollari e una torta di riso ai frutti di bosco a 6 dollari. Hanno aumentato i prezzi per far fronte all’aumento dei costi del cibo e della manodopera, ma non hanno voluto specificare di quanto. Secondo il Dipartimento dell’Agricoltura degli Stati Uniti, il prezzo delle uova, ingrediente di molti prodotti Win Son, dovrebbe aumentare del 78% quest’anno, dopo che una grave epidemia di influenza aviaria ha decimato gli allevamenti di polli e ridotto la produzione di uova.

8 dollari per i mirtilli. È rimasta scioccata nello scoprire che una libbra di frutti di bosco costava almeno 8 dollari. Poiché la guerra in Ucraina ha limitato la fornitura di petrolio, i prezzi elevati del gas hanno reso più costoso per i camion del signor Migliorelli trasportare i prodotti a 100 miglia dalla Hudson Valley alla città. Il prezzo dei fertilizzanti è salito alle stelle, esacerbato dalle interruzioni della catena di approvvigionamento e delle esportazioni dovute alla guerra. Una libbra di pomodori ciliegini al suo stand costa ora 12 dollari, contro i 10 dell’anno scorso.

15 dollari per le patatine fritte. Ha ordinato un cocktail di gin e vodka blu neon per 20 dollari, e poi ha diviso 15 dollari di patatine fritte e 19 dollari di patatine con guacamole.

* * * * * * *

«While rent and the cost of Uber trips have reached eye-popping levels, rising food prices are among the most painful results of inflation. In May, food prices in the New York City area rose at their fastest annual pace since 1981. Food prices were still 9.1 percent higher than a year earlier in New York and 10.4 percent higher nationwide. The number of children visiting food pantries was 55 percent higher earlier this year than it was before the pandemic»

«$3.50 for an everything bagel with plain cream cheese and $1.50 for a hot coffee at a street cart. Since high food and gas prices have strained his budget, he will sometimes skip breakfast or lunch to make his $700 monthly rent, or shop at 99-cent stores. His hourly wage recently increased by 5.4 percent, from $24.62 to $25.95»

«It cost him $3.75 for one scoop of strawberry ice cream, an order that increased by 25 cents this summer. He also bought a box of pastries, including a $7 portion of tiramisù, which increased by 50 cents. You almost don’t want to get too mad because you know the restaurant owners are also paying a hefty priceSo you feel empathy, but you’re upset about the price increases. A new refrigerator took more than a year to arrive. Butter prices have surged, partly because of high costs for cattle feed, exacerbated by a drought in parts of the United States»

«$18 for a Sandwich. He spent $30.48 — a cold brew coffee for $4, a shrimp scallion pancake sandwich for $18 and a berry rice cake for $6. They have increased prices to deal with rising food and labor costs, but declined to detail by how much. The price of eggs, an ingredient in several Win Son items, is projected to jump 78 percent this year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, after a major bird flu outbreak decimated chicken flocks and lowered egg production.»

«$8 for Blueberries. She was shocked to discover that a pint of berries was now at least $8. As the war in Ukraine constrained the supply of oil, high gas prices made it more expensive for Mr. Migliorelli’s trucks to drive produce 100 miles from the Hudson Valley to the city. The price of fertilizer has soared, exacerbated by the supply-chain and export disruptions of the war. A pound of cherry tomatoes at his stand is now $12, up from $10 last year»

«$15 for French Fries. She ordered a neon blue gin and vodka cocktail for $20, and then split $15 French fries and $19 chips with guacamole»

* * * * * * *


$15 French Fries and $18 Sandwiches: Inflation Hits New York

As food prices rise at the fastest rate in decades, it’s become more expensive to eat and drink in New York City.

This was supposed to be a summer of long-awaited celebrations in New York City, the return of a packed calendar full of birthday dinners and happy hours. But New Yorkers are confronting sticker shock everywhere they look, whether they’re shopping for barbecue supplies at the grocery store, ordering a beer after work or grabbing a late-night slice of pizza.

While rent and the cost of Uber trips have reached eye-popping levels, rising food prices are among the most painful results of inflation. In May, food prices in the New York City area rose at their fastest annual pace since 1981, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The effects have been especially visible throughout the city — everybody has to eat.

The increase slowed in June, the most recent inflation report showed, but food prices were still 9.1 percent higher than a year earlier in New York and 10.4 percent higher nationwide.

Rising prices have come for beloved New York staples like the ice cream cones at Mister Softee trucks and the bacon, egg and cheese sandwiches at bodegas. And they have worsened the city’s hunger crisis; the number of children visiting food pantries was 55 percent higher earlier this year than it was before the pandemic, according to City Harvest, the largest food rescue organization in New York City.

Many restaurants and bars that survived the pandemic resisted raising prices last year, afraid of scaring away customers during a fragile recovery. Now, as businesses have increased wages to attract workers in a competitive labor market while facing soaring food and energy costs, higher prices are popping up on menus across the city.

We followed five New Yorkers last month during their weekly eating routines to document where they were seeing the effects of inflation.

                         $3.50 for a Bagel

On a recent Monday morning, shortly after arriving at work, Mamadu Jalloh paid $3.50 for an everything bagel with plain cream cheese and $1.50 for a hot coffee at a street cart near his job in Queens, where he works at a nonprofit organization that helps formerly homeless adults.

The cart’s owner, Ali Apdelwyhap, had just raised coffee prices by 50 cents. Almost every single item in his cart had become more expensive, even the bags of ice he uses to store drinks. He was hesitant to go beyond 50 cents, worried his regulars — who include a large number of construction workers — would stop coming. “It’s too much for people,” he said.

Before the pandemic, Mr. Apdelwyhap’s breakfast cart had been parked in Midtown, serving lawyers and bankers who seemed less sensitive to price increases. Now, with most office workers no longer commuting five days a week, he said he can’t sustain his business there. He settled on this new corner along the northeastern waterfront in Queens after noticing construction sites nearby, hoping it would be a place where workers were required to show up in person.

Mr. Jalloh, 28, is one of them, driving in five days a week from his home in the South Bronx. Since high food and gas prices have strained his budget, he will sometimes skip breakfast or lunch to make his $700 monthly rent, or shop at 99-cent stores.

His hourly wage recently increased by 5.4 percent, from $24.62 to $25.95, as part of a citywide cost-of-living adjustment given to certain nonprofit workers. But, Mr. Jalloh said, it has done little to defray the impact of inflation. “It’s helping, but it’s not really helping,” he said.

                         $3.75 for Ice Cream

Patrick Dunne, a second-year medical student, stopped by Veniero’s Pasticceria & Caffe, a bakery in the East Village of Manhattan, for a midday snack. It cost him $3.75 for one scoop of strawberry ice cream, an order that increased by 25 cents this summer. He also bought a box of pastries, including a $7 portion of tiramisù, which increased by 50 cents.

Mr. Dunne, 25, brought the pastries back to his family in the Bronx. He moved in with them after leaving his Manhattan apartment early in the pandemic, and now, with rents surging, he cannot afford his own place.

Mr. Dunne was excited about a summer of eating out with friends, but on days when he has hospital shifts, he more frequently brings granola bars from home or eats from the dollar menu at McDonald’s.

“You almost don’t want to get too mad because you know the restaurant owners are also paying a hefty price,” he said. “So you feel empathy, but you’re upset about the price increases.”

At Veniero’s, the staff was juggling an onslaught of pandemic disruptions. A new refrigerator took more than a year to arrive. Butter prices have surged, partly because of high costs for cattle feed, exacerbated by a drought in parts of the United States. A waitress who quit because she was unvaccinated has not yet been replaced.

Robert Zerilli, the fourth-generation owner, said he “had no choice” but to raise prices last month. “We have to make a profit,” he said.

                         $18 for a Sandwich

During his lunch break on a work-from-home day, Mychal Lopez, 32, walked to Win Son Bakery, a Taiwanese cafe near his apartment in Brooklyn’s East Williamsburg neighborhood. He spent $30.48 — a cold brew coffee for $4, a shrimp scallion pancake sandwich for $18 and a berry rice cake for $6.

The owners of Win Son said they have increased prices to deal with rising food and labor costs, but declined to detail by how much. The price of eggs, an ingredient in several Win Son items, is projected to jump 78 percent this year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, after a major bird flu outbreak decimated chicken flocks and lowered egg production.

Mr. Lopez said the coffee at Win Son was still cheaper than the typical price in Midtown, where he commutes four days a week to his job for a fashion retailer. The average price of a 16-ounce cold brew around there is $4.88, according to the prices listed at 13 coffee shops.

Mr. Lopez said he has been bringing lunch to the office more after he recently paid $6 for a matcha latte in Midtown. “It’s symptomatic of New York,” he said, sighing. “You’re just like, this is what I need to do to live in the city and get through the day.”

                         $8 for Blueberries

For years, Margaret Rodgers, a retiree who lives in Astoria, Queens, has shopped for fruits and vegetables at the Union Square farmers’ market in Manhattan. She keeps track of her food budget by filling a pouch with $80 in cash. But lately, the pouch has emptied after just two trips to the market. She was shocked to discover that a pint of berries was now at least $8.

“For the first time in my life, I am really feeling the effects of the increasing cost of food,” said Ms. Rodgers, 79.

Ken Migliorelli, who sells produce at the market from his family farm in Dutchess County, said he has had to raise prices across the board. As the war in Ukraine constrained the supply of oil, high gas prices made it more expensive for Mr. Migliorelli’s trucks to drive produce 100 miles from the Hudson Valley to the city. The price of fertilizer has soared, exacerbated by the supply-chain and export disruptions of the war.

This year, Mr. Migliorelli raised the price of blueberries by $2 to $3; they’re now $8 a pint. A pound of peaches rose to $5, from $3.50 last year.

Zaid Kurdieh of Norwich Meadow Farms, another vendor at the Union Square market, said he is trying to minimize price increases on staples like zucchini and carrots, but plans to raise prices by as much as 30 percent on items that are in demand at high-end restaurants, like baby squash. A pound of cherry tomatoes at his stand is now $12, up from $10 last year.

“I can’t keep up with expenses at the moment,” Mr. Kurdieh said. “I’m not seeing the light at the end of the tunnel.”

                         $15 for French Fries

After a day of work, Kathy Li met up with a colleague at the Skylark, a cocktail bar near Times Square. She ordered a neon blue gin and vodka cocktail for $20, and then split $15 French fries and $19 chips with guacamole — a price she described as “ridiculous.”

Ms. Li, 30, said the financial firm where she works provides free breakfast, lunch and snacks, which frees up her budget to go out frequently for drinks or dinner.

This summer, the Skylark raised prices on its chips and guacamole by $1.25 after avocado prices skyrocketed. (The United States temporarily suspended avocado imports from the Mexican state of Michoacan after a U.S. inspector there faced a safety threat.)

Because of the pandemic, the bar stayed shut until October 2021, and then the Omicron variant prompted widespread cancellations of holiday parties in December, typically the bar’s most lucrative month, according to David Rabin, a Skylark co-owner.

Mr. Rabin has been trying to recover from those losses while also contending with high employee turnover. He increased wages for some managers and spent more on training new hires for positions like security guards.

Mr. Rabin and the bar’s managers had a monthslong debate about whether to raise alcohol prices by $1 and charge $20 per cocktail, a threshold that Mr. Rabin had long resisted.

“We’re not trying to make anyone feel like we’re trying to fleece them,” Mr. Rabin said. But after noticing similar bars in the area charging at least $20, the bar owners decided to make the move. “It has become, unfortunately, the norm,” he said.

Pubblicato in: Agricoltura, India

India. Le semine di riso sono calate del 46% rispetto lo scorso anno a causa dei monsoni.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-07-01.

India 013

La semina di riso in India è diminuita del 46% rispetto all’anno scorso.

Gli agricoltori indiani hanno seminato finora 1,96 milioni di ettari di riso estivo, secondo i dati del ministero dell’Agricoltura di venerdì, con un calo del 46% rispetto all’anno scorso, soprattutto a causa di un inizio debole del monsone.

Tuttavia, le prospettive sono migliori, dato che il monsone si è ripreso. Le piogge estive hanno coperto più della metà del Paese e il deficit di precipitazioni si è ridotto al 2% dal 36%.

La semina è appena iniziata e la superficie coltivata a riso potrebbe aumentare con una ripresa delle piogge monsoniche.

Gli agricoltori generalmente iniziano a piantare riso, mais, cotone, soia, canna da zucchero e arachidi, tra le altre colture, a partire da giugno, quando le piogge monsoniche arrivano tipicamente in India.

Le piogge monsoniche giocano un ruolo cruciale nell’agricoltura – che impiega quasi il 50% della forza lavoro indiana – poiché quasi la metà dei terreni agricoli del Paese non è irrigata.

La superficie coltivata a cotone è stata di 3.18 milioni di ettari, in calo rispetto ai 3.73 milioni di ettari dell’anno precedente.

La semina di soia, la principale coltura estiva di semi oleosi, si è attestata a 278,000 milioni di ettari, rispetto a 1.25 milioni di ettari nello stesso periodo del 2021.

La superficie coltivata a riso proteico è salita a 202,000 ettari contro i 132,000 dello scorso anno.

La piantagione di canna da zucchero è rimasta quasi invariata a 5.07 milioni di ettari

* * * * * * *


«India’s rice planting down 46% from last year»

«Indian farmers have planted 1.96 million hectares with summer-sown rice so far, farm ministry data showed on Friday, down 46% from last year mainly due to a weak start to the monsoon»

«The outlook is better, however, as the monsoon has gathered steam. Summer rains have covered more than half of the country, with the rainfall deficit getting narrowed to 2% from 36%.»

«The planting has just started, and the area under rice could go up with a pick-up in monsoon rains»

«Farmers generally start planting rice, corn, cotton, soybeans, sugarcane and peanuts, among other crops, from June, when monsoon rains typically arrive in India»

«Monsoon rains play a crucial role in agriculture – which employs nearly 50% of India’s workforce – as nearly half of the country’s farmland lacks irrigation»

«The area planted with cotton totalled 3.18 million hectares, down from 3.73 million hectares a year earlier»

«The sowing of soybeans, the main summer oilseed crop, stood at 278,000 million hectares, compared with 1.25 million hectares at the same time in 2021»

«The area planted with protein-rice pulse rose to 202,000 hectares against 132,000 hectares last year»

«Sugarcane planting was almost unchanged at 5.07 million hectares»

* * * * * * *


India’s rice planting down 46% from last year, likely to pick up

New Delhi, June 24 (Reuters) – Indian farmers have planted 1.96 million hectares with summer-sown rice so far, farm ministry data showed on Friday, down 46% from last year mainly due to a weak start to the monsoon.

The outlook is better, however, as the monsoon has gathered steam. Summer rains have covered more than half of the country, with the rainfall deficit getting narrowed to 2% from 36%.  

The planting has just started, and the area under rice could go up with a pick-up in monsoon rains, said B.V. Krishna Rao, president of the All India Rice Exporters Association.

Farmers generally start planting rice, corn, cotton, soybeans, sugarcane and peanuts, among other crops, from June, when monsoon rains typically arrive in India. Sowing usually lasts until July.

Monsoon rains play a crucial role in agriculture – which employs nearly 50% of India’s workforce – as nearly half of the country’s farmland lacks irrigation.

The Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers’ Welfare will keep updating the provisional crop sowing figures as it gathers more information from state governments.

The planting figures are also subject to revision depending on the progress of the June-September monsoon season.

The area planted with cotton totalled 3.18 million hectares, down from 3.73 million hectares a year earlier. Monsoon rains have been sparse over cotton-growing areas in Gujarat and Maharashtra states in the west.

Farmers have a relatively short window to complete cotton sowing and that’s why rains need to pick up to help growers plant the crop.

The sowing of soybeans, the main summer oilseed crop, stood at 278,000 million hectares, compared with 1.25 million hectares at the same time in 2021.

The area planted with protein-rice pulse rose to 202,000 hectares against 132,000 hectares last year.

But pulse acreage could drop in the next few weeks as some farmers might switch to more lucrative cotton and soybean, said Nitin Kalantri, a trader based in Maharashtra.

Sugarcane planting was almost unchanged at 5.07 million hectares.

Pubblicato in: Agricoltura, Materie Prime

Fertilizzanti. I prezzi sono in calo a causa delle mancate semine primaverili.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-06-25.

2022-06-20__ Fertilizzanti 001

La carenza di fertilizzanti che ha gettato il settore agricolo nello scompiglio e ha fatto aumentare i costi dei prodotti alimentari a livello globale potrebbe essere in via di attenuazione.

Le colture di tutto il mondo dipendono dai nutrienti provenienti dalla Russia, uno dei maggiori esportatori, e l’invasione dell’Ucraina quattro mesi fa ha messo in subbuglio i mercati dei prodotti chimici cruciali.

Alla fine, i prezzi sono saliti così tanto che gli agricoltori hanno smesso di comprare – e ora il mercato si è ribaltato.

Le navi sono in attesa di scaricare e le aziende stanno lottando per ridurre le scorte nei porti e nei magazzini.

In Brasile, i magazzini si stanno avvicinando alla capacità massima perché gli agricoltori scommettono che i prezzi sono ancora in calo.

Le vendite di fertilizzanti russi sono esenti dalle sanzioni imposte da Stati Uniti e Unione Europea in risposta alla guerra in Ucraina e alcune spedizioni stanno entrando negli Stati Uniti.

Una nave che trasporta 12,000 tonnellate di urea granulare, un comune fertilizzante azotato, è arrivata dalla Russia con una polizza di carico datata 8 giugno.

Il governo statunitense sta addirittura incoraggiando le compagnie agricole e di navigazione ad acquistare e trasportare più fertilizzanti russi.

I prezzi nordamericani sono i più bassi da gennaio e l’indice del continente è sceso del 35% da quando ha toccato il record a fine marzo.

Il calo dei prezzi dei fertilizzanti, se dovesse continuare, potrebbe attenuare le preoccupazioni degli agricoltori di saltare le applicazioni di nutrienti sintetici per risparmiare.

I prezzi dei fertilizzanti si sono ammorbiditi durante la stagione primaverile a causa dei ritardi nelle semine, dell’ampia offerta e dei prezzi quasi record per tonnellata che hanno spinto gli agricoltori a ridurre le applicazioni di fertilizzanti.

* * *

Cina. Condizioni meteorologiche mettono in crisi la agricoltura e prezzo del grano è in robusta salita.

Cina. Raccolto di grano invernale sarà il peggiore della storia.

Cina. Detassa e toglie le restrizioni all’import di grano russo. Ira degli australiani.

Ukraina. Priva di fertilizzanti, erbicidi e carburante la agricoltura quasi cessa di esistere.

Lituania. Blocca il transito del potassio della Bielorussia verso il suo porto di Klaipeda.

Usa. Zone troppo piovose ed altre troppo secche riducono di un buon terzo il raccolto del grano.

* * *

Le avverse condizioni meteorologiche in Cina, India e Stati Uniti e gli alti prezzi dei fertilizzanti hanno causato una consistente diminuzione delle semine, cui consegue un calo nell’uso dei fertilizzanti e quindi dei prezzi.

* * * * * * *

«The fertilizer shortage that threw the agricultural sector into disarray and pushed food costs higher globally may be fading»

«Crops across the world are dependent on nutrients from Russia, one of the biggest exporters, and the invasion of Ukraine four months ago roiled markets for the crucial chemicals»

«Ultimately, prices soared so high that farmers halted buying — and now the market has flipped»

«Ships are waiting to unload and companies are struggling to reduce stocks in ports and warehouses»

«In Brazil, warehouses are approaching maximum capacity because farmers are betting prices have farther to fall»

«Russian fertilizer sales are exempt from the sanctions imposed by US and EU in response to the war on Ukraine, and some shipments are entering the US»

«A ship carrying 12,000 metric tons of granular urea, a common nitrogen fertilizer, arrived from Russia with a bill of lading dated June 8»

«The US government is even encouraging agricultural and shipping companies to buy and carry more Russian fertilizer»

«North American prices are the lowest they’ve been since January and a closely watched index for the continent is down 35% since touching a record in late March»

«The slide in fertilizer prices — if it continues — may ease some of the concerns that farmers would skip applications of synthetic nutrients to save money»

«Fertilizer prices softened through the spring season as delayed plantings, ample supply, and near record per-ton prices pushed farmers to pull back on fertilizer applications»

* * * * * * *


Fertilizer Stockpiles Swell as Farmers Shun High Prices, Easing Harvest Worries

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-17/fertilizer-stockpiles-swell-as-farmers-shun-high-prices-easing-harvest-worries?srnd=premium-europe

The fertilizer shortage that threw the agricultural sector into disarray and pushed food costs higher globally may be fading.

Crops across the world are dependent on nutrients from Russia, one of the biggest exporters, and the invasion of Ukraine four months ago roiled markets for the crucial chemicals. Ultimately, prices soared so high that farmers halted buying — and now the market has flipped. Fertilizer supplies are piling up from Florida to South America. Ships are waiting to unload and companies are struggling to reduce stocks in ports and warehouses, according to people familiar with the matter. 

In Brazil, warehouses are approaching maximum capacity because farmers are betting prices have farther to fall. As far back as March — just weeks after Russia invaded — North American potash reserves were at a six-year high, according to Bloomberg’s Green Markets and The Fertilizer Institute, as prices soared and farmers skipped applications. 

Meanwhile, concerns that fertilizer supplies from Russia would be completely shut off haven’t panned out. Russian fertilizer sales are exempt from the sanctions imposed by US and EU in response to the war on Ukraine, and some shipments are entering the US, according to cargo data tracked by Bloomberg. A ship  carrying 12,000 metric tons of granular urea, a common nitrogen fertilizer, arrived from Russia with a bill of lading dated June 8. While the amount is relatively small, it confirms that the product has found a pathway to American shores.

The US government is even encouraging agricultural and shipping companies to buy and carry more Russian fertilizer.

Wholesale fertilizer prices are declining after soaring to multi-year highs. North American prices are the lowest they’ve been since January and a closely watched index for the continent is down 35% since touching a record in late March, according to Green Markets. Farmers are still awaiting lower prices as grains trend higher, expanding the arbitrage of delayed nutrient purchases.

Green Market’s North American weekly fertilizer price index dropped 4% this week, compounding last week’s 3% decline. Wholesale New Orleans urea fell to the lowest since August, while New Orleans ammonia inched higher by 2% amid rising overseas demand.

The slide in fertilizer prices — if it continues — may ease some of the concerns that farmers would skip applications of synthetic nutrients to save money, reducing crop yields and worsening food inflation and hunger in parts of the world. Still, it’s too early to tell whether prices will rebound if the war in Ukraine persists into a period when demand is seasonally higher.

“Fertilizer prices softened through the spring season as delayed plantings, ample supply, and near record per-ton prices pushed farmers to pull back on fertilizer applications,” said Alexis Maxwell, an analyst at Green Markets. Fertilizer-to-crop price ratios, a key affordability metric, have sunk, “reflecting a potential buying opportunity for corn farmers who need product today.”

Pubblicato in: Agricoltura, Cina, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Cina. Condizioni meteorologiche mettono in crisi la agricoltura e prezzo del grano è in robusta salita.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-06-11.

Cigni neri 001

«Chinese consumers are likely to have to pay more for food staples like noodles and bread this year, as record wheat prices in the world’s top consumer of the grain get passed on to food makers»

«Wheat harvested in China in recent weeks is being sold at around 3,200 yuan ($477) per tonne, about 30% higher than a year ago»

«Surging farming costs and tight stocks have pushed up prices that are also being supported by worries that heavy rain last year could lead to a smaller crop»

«Global wheat supplies are also tight due to the war in major exporter Ukraine»

«Prices of refined flour are already up more than 10% in China since the beginning of the year»

«The farming cost for wheat in 2021/22 was around 575 yuan per tonne, up about 100 yuan from the previous year, due to rising fertiliser and seed prices»

«With nitrogen alone, prices have jumped about 100 yuan per bag»

«the cost for winter wheat was as high as 700 yuan per tonne because the crop was planted late last fall due to heavy rain»

«Old (crop) wheat supplies in the end were tight, and prices hit 3,500 yuan per tonne»

«If the feed sector is not buying, the supply situation will be much better»

«High wheat prices are squeezing flour mills, which are struggling with overcapacity and weak demand during the traditionally low consumption season»

«at least 70% of millers are losing money»

«higher wheat prices will eventually be passed on to end products»

* * * * * * *

Cina. Silenziosamente acquista dalla Russia il petrolio prima destinato alla Europa.

Mondo. Ci si prepari ad una recessione epocale. – Bloomberg.

Fertilizzanti. Costi sempre più elevati che mettono in perdita la produzione.

Paesi emergenti. Fame e blackout sono solo l’inizio di una depressione epocale.

Mondo. Fertilizzanti. Uno sconsolante studio dei Crop Producers.

Cina. Compra e combustibili fossili russi e li rivende nei paesi che non possono importarli.

Nuova Grande Depressione. Prezzo pagato alla guerra di Biden alla Russia. – Bloomberg.

Cina. Raccolto di grano invernale sarà il peggiore della storia.

Cina. Detassa e toglie le restrizioni all’import di grano russo. Ira degli australiani.

Fertilizzanti. Si prospetta una carestia a livello mondiale. La fame proprio ci mancava.

Mondo. Grano duro. Produzione dimezzata e costi cresciuti del 74% anno su anno.

* * * * * * *

Se sicuramente la produzione agricola è condizionata dai costi di gestione, quali tasse, personale, sementi, fertilizzanti e carburante, altrettanto sicuramente dipende dalle condizioni meteorologiche, sulle quali l’uomo ben poco può fare..

«The condition of China’s winter wheat crop could be the “worst in history”»

«Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Tang Renjian said that rare heavy rainfall last year delayed the planting of about one-third of the normal wheat acreage»

* * * * * * *


Record Chinese wheat prices raise risk of pricier noodles

Beijing, June 2 (Reuters) – Chinese consumers are likely to have to pay more for food staples like noodles and bread this year, as record wheat prices in the world’s top consumer of the grain get passed on to food makers, traders and analysts said.

Wheat harvested in China in recent weeks is being sold at around 3,200 yuan ($477) per tonne, about 30% higher than a year ago and the highest level on record, despite stable demand.

Surging farming costs and tight stocks have pushed up prices that are also being supported by worries that heavy rain last year could lead to a smaller crop.  

Global wheat supplies are also tight due to the war in major exporter Ukraine.

Prices of refined flour are already up more than 10% in China since the beginning of the year, to record highs, according to data from Mysteel, a China-based consultancy, and may rise further if wheat costs keep climbing.

The farming cost for wheat in 2021/22 was around 575 yuan per tonne, up about 100 yuan from the previous year, due to rising fertiliser and seed prices, according to Mysteel data.

“Everything is so much more expensive now. With nitrogen alone, prices have jumped about 100 yuan per bag,” said a farmer surnamed Zhang in Hebei province, who only gave her family name.

She estimated the cost for winter wheat was as high as 700 yuan per tonne because the crop was planted late last fall due to heavy rain.

                         SUBSIDIES

Beijing has issued three rounds of subsidies to farmers so far this year amid concerns that high costs will impact output in the food security-obsessed country, but that money has yet to trickle down to growers who have been reluctant to sell their grain cheaply.

Traders have also been reluctant to lower prices as overall supplies remain tight following strong wheat demand last year from animal feeders.

“Corn prices were high. Old (crop) wheat supplies in the end were tight, and prices hit 3,500 yuan per tonne, so new wheat continued the rally and started off (this season) high,” said a China-based grains trader.

While feed producers and livestock farmers have been daunted by the high price of wheat this year, they remain regular wheat buyers as corn prices also remain elevated.

“If the feed sector is not buying, the supply situation will be much better,” said another grains trader.

And despite the ongoing harvest which will continue through late-June, replenishing supplies, the price of wheat is set to reach at least 3,400 yuan per tonne in the fourth quarter, when Chinese wheat demand peaks and people eat more starchy foods in the cold weather, traders and analysts said.

                         HANGING IN THERE

High wheat prices are squeezing flour mills, which are struggling with overcapacity and weak demand during the traditionally low consumption season.

“Milling plants were not actively buying at the moment. Only some are buying for the necessary need to restock,” said Lv Fengyang, analyst with the agriculture section of Mysteel.

She estimated at least 70% of millers are losing money.

Fine flour makes up about 70% of the profits for wheat processing at milling plants, while the rest comes from sales of byproducts that mainly go into animal feed.

“Food flour prices have basically stabilised at the moment,” said a trader with a major milling plant in China. “But higher wheat prices will eventually be passed on to end products.”

Pubblicato in: Agricoltura, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Materie Prime, Stati Uniti

Usa. Zone troppo piovose ed altre troppo secche riducono di un buon terzo il raccolto del grano.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-06-06.

Cigni neri 001

«Nel North Dakota, che produce circa la metà del grano primaverile statunitense, i coltivatori hanno seminato solo il 27% del loro raccolto»

* * * * * * *

«Il raccolto di grano statunitense è stato colpito da un inverno secco e da una primavera umida, che si aggiunge alla scarsità globale»

«Le forti piogge hanno impedito a Grotberg di piantare la quantità di grano che desiderava e stanno ostacolando gli agricoltori di tutto lo Stato, il principale produttore di grano primaverile degli Stati Uniti»

«Invece di aumentare l’offerta, il North Dakota dovrebbe piantare grano sulla quota più piccola di terreno agricolo mai registrata»

«Gli Stati Uniti sono il quarto esportatore di grano al mondo e i problemi stanno colpendo la produzione in un momento in cui il mondo non può permettersi di perdere altre forniture di questo cereale di base in una crisi alimentare globale»

«I prezzi di riferimento del grano al Chicago Board of Trade sono saliti del 50% a più di 13,60 dollari al bushel dopo che l’invasione della Russia a febbraio ha bloccato le spedizioni di quasi un terzo delle esportazioni mondiali di grano, e da allora poco è andato per il verso giusto per il grano»

«Il peggioramento delle prospettive di raccolto in Cina e in alcune parti d’Europa, seguito da un divieto di esportazione da parte del principale produttore indiano, ha fatto aumentare le scorte e ha esacerbato le preoccupazioni per l’approvvigionamento alimentare globale»

«Washington ha invitato gli agricoltori statunitensi a seminare più grano invernale quest’autunno e il governo ha dichiarato che permetterà la semina su alcuni terreni sensibili dal punto di vista ambientale a partire da quest’autunno»

«Ma la siccità e i costosi input agricoli potrebbero limitare gli aumenti di produzione»

«Negli Stati Uniti ci sono due colture di grano: il grano primaverile piantato ora e il grano invernale piantato in autunno che sarà raccolto a breve. Entrambi sono in difficoltà»

«La siccità ha colpito il raccolto di grano invernale in Kansas, lo Stato con la maggiore produzione»

«Nel Nord Dakota il problema è la troppa acqua. Una storica bufera di aprile ha lasciato i vasti campi dello Stato, pieni di buche, sotto più di un metro di neve in alcune aree, provocando inondazioni quando il diluvio si è sciolto»

«ha potuto piantare solo circa 500 acri (200 ettari) di grano finora – solo un quarto del terreno che aveva intenzione di seminare – a causa delle condizioni umide»

«I semi seminati in terreni inzuppati possono faticare ad emergere o spuntare in modo irregolare, mentre i pesanti macchinari agricoli possono distruggere i campi eccessivamente fangosi, compattare il terreno o rimanere incastrati nel fango»

«Il tempo umido della primavera ha quasi assicurato che il granaio delle pianure del nord degli Stati Uniti non produrrà un raccolto abbondante quest’anno»

«Gli agricoltori statunitensi hanno seminato solo il 49% degli ettari di grano primaverile previsti al 22 maggio»

«Nel North Dakota, che produce circa la metà del grano primaverile statunitense, i coltivatori hanno seminato solo il 27% del loro raccolto»

«Nelle pianure meridionali degli Stati Uniti, i coltivatori di grano invernale hanno ricevuto poche piogge e sono preoccupati per le dimensioni del loro raccolto – o se le piante raggrinzite dovranno semplicemente essere arate»

«Il raccolto si ridurrebbe del 28% quest’anno e un numero maggiore di campi rispetto al normale potrebbe non essere raccolto a causa dei danni provocati dalla siccità»

«Nel vicino Colorado, l’abbandono potrebbe raggiungere il 30%»

* * * * * * *

In calce riportiamo una traduzione in lingua italiana.

* * * * * * *

«U.S. wheat crop hit by dry winter then soggy spring, adding to global tightness»

«Heavy rain has prevented Grotberg from planting as much wheat crop as he wanted and is hampering farmers across the state, the top U.S. grower of spring wheat»

«Instead of boosting supply, North Dakota expected to plant wheat over the smallest share of its farmland on record»

«The United States is the world’s fourth-largest wheat exporter and problems are hitting output at a time when the world can ill afford to lose any more supplies of the staple grain amid a global food crisis»

«Benchmark Chicago Board of Trade wheat prices surged 50% to more than $13.60 a bushel after Russia’s invasion in February halted shipments of nearly a third of the world’s wheat exports, and little has gone right for wheat since then»

«Worsening harvest prospects in China and parts of Europe, followed by an export ban by major producer India, have tightened stocks and exacerbated global food supply concerns»

«Washington has been calling on U.S. farmers to seed more winter wheat this autumn, and the government said it would allow planting on some environmentally sensitive land beginning this fall»

«But the drought and costly farm inputs could limit production gains»

«There are two wheat crops in the United States: spring wheat planted now, and winter wheat planted in autumn that will be harvested soon. Both are in trouble»

«drought hit the winter wheat crop in Kansas, the top growing state»

«Back in North Dakota, it is too much water that is the problem. An historic April blizzard left the state’s expansive, pothole-dotted fields under more than 3 feet (1 m) of snow in some areas, triggering floods as the deluge melted»

«has only been able to plant about 500 acres (200 hectares) with wheat so far – just a quarter of the land he had aimed to sow – because of the wet conditions»

«Seeds sown in soggy soils can struggle to emerge or come up unevenly, while heavy farm machinery can tear up overly muddy fields, compact soils or get lodged in the muck»

«Soggy spring weather has all but ensured that the northern U.S. Plains breadbasket will not produce a bumper crop this year»

«U.S. farmers have only seeded 49% of their intended spring wheat acres as of May 22»

«In North Dakota, which produces about half of U.S. spring wheat, growers have planted just 27% of their crop»

«In the southern U.S. Plains, winter wheat farmers have received very little rain and are concerned about the size of their harvest – or if the shriveled plants will simply need to be plowed under.»

«harvest would shrink by 28% this year and more fields than normal may go unharvested due to drought damage»

«In neighboring Colorado, abandonment could top 30%»

* * * * * * *


U.S. wheat crop hit by dry winter then soggy spring, adding to global tightness

May 31 (Reuters) – North Dakota farmer Dwight Grotberg wanted to plant more wheat this spring to capitalize on soaring prices since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine cut grain exports and left the world short of millions of tonnes of wheat supply.

Heavy rain has prevented Grotberg from planting as much wheat crop as he wanted and is hampering farmers across the state, the top U.S. grower of spring wheat.

Instead of boosting supply, North Dakota expected to plant wheat over the smallest share of its farmland on record, according to government data.

The United States is the world’s fourth-largest wheat exporter and problems are hitting output at a time when the world can ill afford to lose any more supplies of the staple grain amid a global food crisis.

Benchmark Chicago Board of Trade wheat prices surged 50% to more than $13.60 a bushel after Russia’s invasion in February halted shipments of nearly a third of the world’s wheat exports, and little has gone right for wheat since then.

Worsening harvest prospects in China and parts of Europe, followed by an export ban by major producer India, have tightened stocks and exacerbated global food supply concerns.

The United Nations has warned the impact of the war on grains, oils, fuel and fertilizer could throw millions of people into famine and take years to resolve.  

Washington has been calling on U.S. farmers to seed more winter wheat this autumn, and the government said it would allow planting on some environmentally sensitive land beginning this fall. But the drought and costly farm inputs could limit production gains, say grain analysts.

There are two wheat crops in the United States: spring wheat planted now, and winter wheat planted in autumn that will be harvested soon. Both are in trouble.

The problems with the spring wheat planting faced by farmers like Grotberg come after drought hit the winter wheat crop in Kansas, the top growing state.

The U.S. winter wheat harvest potential there has fallen by more than 25% due to severe drought. Kansas farmers may abandon thousands of acres of wheat in fields this year, instead of paying to harvest the drought-scorched grain.

Back in North Dakota, it is too much water that is the problem. An historic April blizzard left the state’s expansive, pothole-dotted fields under more than 3 feet (1 m) of snow in some areas, triggering floods as the deluge melted.

Grotberg has only been able to plant about 500 acres (200 hectares) with wheat so far – just a quarter of the land he had aimed to sow – because of the wet conditions.

Seeds sown in soggy soils can struggle to emerge or come up unevenly, while heavy farm machinery can tear up overly muddy fields, compact soils or get lodged in the muck.

Now, Grotberg’s planting window is closing fast.

Wheat planted too late in the spring is likely to yield less grain or be at risk of frost before the crop fully ripens.

“We’re stuck … Normally we’re wrapping up wheat planting by this time,” Grotberg said.

                         SLOWEST SPRING PLANTING SINCE 1996

Soggy spring weather has all but ensured that the northern U.S. Plains breadbasket will not produce a bumper crop this year.

U.S. farmers have only seeded 49% of their intended spring wheat acres as of May 22, matching 2014 for the slowest pace since 1996, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data.

In North Dakota, which produces about half of U.S. spring wheat, growers have planted just 27% of their crop, the second slowest pace in four decades.

“Some farmers have not turned a wheel yet,” said North Dakota Agriculture Commissioner Doug Goehring. “If North Dakota is not able to get a substantial amount in, it’s just going to wreak more havoc on the global market.”

                         ABANDONING SHRIVELED WINTER WHEAT

In the southern U.S. Plains, winter wheat farmers have received very little rain and are concerned about the size of their harvest – or if the shriveled plants will simply need to be plowed under.

A private group touring wheat fields in Kansas in mid-May forecast its harvest would shrink by 28% this year and more fields than normal may go unharvested due to drought damage.

About 6% of the state’s planted acres would be abandoned, according to the latest USDA estimates. But given the drought damage, Kansas State University wheat agronomist Romulo Lollato thinks the abandonment rate would be higher.

“I would not be surprised if 8%, 9%, 10%” of planted acres are abandoned this year, Lollato said.

In neighboring Colorado, abandonment could top 30%, Colorado Wheat Executive Director Brad Erker told tour participants.

“Wheat yields are affected by weather in May, and we’ve had a really dry May,” said Kansas farmer Vance Ehmke. “The trend is not our friend.”

                         DISAPPEARING WHEAT ACRES

U.S. wheat output has been on longer-term decline as farmers favored corn and soybean production, which are more lucrative due to demand from biofuels producers. Seed science also has boosted their yields by 30% or more since 2000, outpacing just 6% for wheat.

Biofuels demand is likely to continue to erode wheat acres as two new soy processing plants are set to open in eastern North Dakota, including one by Archer-Daniels-Midland Company  that will supply Marathon Petroleum Corporation  with soyoil for renewable diesel fuel.

As the planting window in the northern Plains narrows, North Dakota farmers are weighing options that include shifting to soybeans, which can be sown later in the spring than wheat, or filing prevented planting insurance claims.

“It gets pretty tempting to file those claims,” Grotberg said. “Once you get into June, you might be lucky to get half a crop. And with costs as high as they are, that’s hard to stomach.”

* * * * * * *


Il raccolto di grano statunitense è stato colpito da un inverno secco e da una primavera piovosa, che si aggiungono alle carenze a livello mondiale

31 maggio (Reuters) – L’agricoltore del North Dakota Dwight Grotberg voleva piantare più grano questa primavera per approfittare dell’impennata dei prezzi dopo che l’invasione russa dell’Ucraina ha tagliato le esportazioni di grano e ha lasciato il mondo a corto di milioni di tonnellate di scorte di grano.

Le forti piogge hanno impedito a Grotberg di piantare la quantità di grano che voleva e stanno ostacolando gli agricoltori di tutto lo Stato, il principale produttore di grano primaverile degli Stati Uniti.

Invece di aumentare l’offerta, il North Dakota ha previsto di piantare grano sulla quota più piccola di terreno agricolo mai registrata, secondo i dati del governo.

Gli Stati Uniti sono il quarto esportatore di grano al mondo e i problemi stanno colpendo la produzione in un momento in cui il mondo non può permettersi di perdere altre forniture di questo cereale di base in una crisi alimentare globale.

I prezzi di riferimento del grano del Chicago Board of Trade sono saliti del 50% a più di 13,60 dollari al bushel dopo che l’invasione della Russia a febbraio ha bloccato le spedizioni di quasi un terzo delle esportazioni mondiali di grano, e da allora poco è andato per il verso giusto.

Il peggioramento delle prospettive di raccolto in Cina e in alcune parti d’Europa, seguito da un divieto di esportazione da parte del principale produttore indiano, ha fatto aumentare le scorte e ha esacerbato le preoccupazioni per l’approvvigionamento alimentare globale.

Le Nazioni Unite hanno avvertito che l’impatto della guerra su cereali, oli, carburante e fertilizzanti potrebbe gettare milioni di persone nella carestia e richiedere anni per essere risolto. 

Washington ha invitato gli agricoltori statunitensi a seminare più grano invernale quest’autunno e il governo ha dichiarato che permetterà la semina su alcuni terreni sensibili dal punto di vista ambientale a partire da quest’autunno. Ma la siccità e i costosi input agricoli potrebbero limitare gli aumenti di produzione, secondo gli analisti del grano.

Negli Stati Uniti ci sono due colture di grano: il grano primaverile piantato ora e il grano invernale piantato in autunno che sarà raccolto a breve. Entrambe sono in difficoltà.

I problemi con la semina del grano primaverile affrontati da agricoltori come Grotberg arrivano dopo che la siccità ha colpito il raccolto di grano invernale in Kansas, lo stato con la maggiore produzione.

Il potenziale di raccolto di grano invernale degli Stati Uniti è diminuito di oltre il 25% a causa della grave siccità. Gli agricoltori del Kansas potrebbero abbandonare migliaia di acri di grano nei campi quest’anno, invece di pagare per raccogliere il grano bruciato dalla siccità.

Nel Nord Dakota, il problema è la troppa acqua. Una storica bufera di aprile ha lasciato i vasti campi dello Stato, pieni di buche, sotto più di 1 metro di neve in alcune aree, provocando inondazioni quando il diluvio si è sciolto.

Grotberg è riuscito a seminare solo circa 500 acri (200 ettari) di grano – solo un quarto della superficie che aveva intenzione di seminare – a causa delle condizioni umide.

I semi seminati in terreni inzuppati possono faticare a emergere o spuntare in modo irregolare, mentre i pesanti macchinari agricoli possono strappare i campi troppo fangosi, compattare il terreno o rimanere incastrati nel fango.

Ora, la finestra di semina di Grotberg si sta chiudendo rapidamente.

Il grano piantato troppo tardi in primavera rischia di produrre meno grano o di essere a rischio di gelate prima che il raccolto maturi completamente.

“Siamo bloccati… Normalmente, a quest’ora, la semina del grano è già terminata”, ha dichiarato Grotberg.

                         LA SEMINA PRIMAVERILE PIÙ LENTA DAL 1996

Il tempo umido della primavera ha quasi assicurato che il granaio delle pianure settentrionali degli Stati Uniti non produrrà un raccolto abbondante quest’anno.

Secondo i dati del Dipartimento dell’Agricoltura degli Stati Uniti, al 22 maggio gli agricoltori statunitensi hanno seminato solo il 49% degli ettari di grano primaverile previsti, eguagliando il 2014 con il ritmo più lento dal 1996.

Nel North Dakota, che produce circa la metà del grano primaverile statunitense, i coltivatori hanno seminato solo il 27% del loro raccolto, il secondo ritmo più lento in quattro decenni.

“Alcuni agricoltori non hanno ancora girato una ruota”, ha dichiarato il Commissario all’Agricoltura del Nord Dakota Doug Goehring. “Se il Nord Dakota non è in grado di produrre una quantità sostanziale, il mercato globale ne risentirà ancora di più”.

                         ABBANDONO DEL GRANO INVERNALE STRIMINZITO

Nelle pianure meridionali degli Stati Uniti, i coltivatori di grano invernale hanno ricevuto pochissime piogge e sono preoccupati per le dimensioni del loro raccolto – o se le piante raggrinzite dovranno semplicemente essere arate.

Un gruppo privato che ha visitato i campi di grano in Kansas a metà maggio ha previsto che il raccolto si ridurrà del 28% quest’anno e che un numero maggiore di campi rispetto al normale potrebbe non essere raccolto a causa dei danni provocati dalla siccità.

Secondo le ultime stime dell’USDA, circa il 6% degli acri coltivati nello Stato verrebbe abbandonato. Ma visti i danni della siccità, l’agronomo della Kansas State University Romulo Lollato pensa che il tasso di abbandono sarebbe più alto.

“Non sarei sorpreso se l’8%, il 9%, il 10%” degli ettari piantati venisse abbandonato quest’anno, ha detto Lollato.

Nel vicino Colorado, l’abbandono potrebbe superare il 30%, ha detto il direttore esecutivo del Colorado Wheat Brad Erker ai partecipanti al tour.

“Le rese del grano sono influenzate dal clima di maggio, e noi abbiamo avuto un maggio molto secco”, ha detto l’agricoltore del Kansas Vance Ehmke. “La tendenza non ci è amica”.

                         ETTARI DI GRANO CHE SCOMPAIONO

La produzione di grano statunitense ha subito un declino a lungo termine, poiché gli agricoltori hanno privilegiato la produzione di mais e soia, più redditizia grazie alla domanda dei produttori di biocarburanti. Dal 2000, inoltre, la scienza delle sementi ha aumentato le rese di questi cereali del 30% o più, superando solo il 6% per il grano.

È probabile che la domanda di biocarburanti continui a erodere acri di grano, dato che nella parte orientale del North Dakota è prevista l’apertura di due nuovi impianti di lavorazione della soia, tra cui uno della Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM.N) che rifornirà Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC.N) di olio di soia per carburante diesel rinnovabile.

Mentre la finestra di semina nelle pianure settentrionali si restringe, gli agricoltori del North Dakota stanno valutando alcune opzioni, tra cui il passaggio alla soia, che può essere seminata più tardi in primavera rispetto al grano, o la presentazione di richieste di assicurazione per la semina impedita.

“La tentazione di presentare le richieste di risarcimento è forte”, ha detto Grotberg. “Una volta arrivati a giugno, si può essere fortunati se si ottiene mezzo raccolto. E con i costi così alti, è difficile da digerire”.

Pubblicato in: Agricoltura, Commercio, Devoluzione socialismo, Regno Unito

Regno Unito. Proibito l’import di merluzzo russo, fish and chips volano a 9.50 sterline.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-05-27.

Regno Unito. Macrodati 2022-05-26

«Fish and chips is a popular hot dish consisting of fried fish in crispy batter, served with chips (French fries). The dish originated in England, where these two components had been introduced from separate immigrant cultures; it is not known who created the culinary fusion that became the emblematic British meal. Often considered Britain’s national dish, fish and chips is a common take-away food in the United Kingdom and numerous other countries, particularly in English-speaking and Commonwealth nations.

Fish and chip shops first appeared in the UK in the 1860s, and by 1910, there were over 25,000 fish and chip shops across the UK. By the 1930s there were over 35,000 shops, but the trend reversed, and by 2009 there were only approximately 10,000. The British Government safeguarded the supply of fish and chips during the First World War, and again in the Second World War; it was one of the few foods in the UK not subject to rationing during the wars» [Fonte]

* * *

Il Fish and Chips era un classico cibo inglese, quasi sempre da asporto, venduto per una o due sterline, a seconda della quantità acquistata. Era anche il classico cibo degli indigenti che il governo supportava anche durante le due guerre mondiali.

Poi vennero le sanzioni: il governo inglese sanzionò e proibì l’import del merluzzo russo, oltre tutto il resto.

Immediata la carenza del merluzzo e dell’olio vegetale per friggere pesce e patatine, con la conseguente impennata dei prezzi al consumo.

Ed i poveracci? Ma che crepino di fame: il governo risparmierà sulle sovvenzioni.

Per il momento il take-away da 800 calorie costa 9.5 sterline, ma i costi sono destinati a salire rapidamente.

Gli inglesi stanno pagando un ben duro prezzo all’aver sanzionato e proibito l’import del merluzzo russo e dell’olio di girasole ukraino, gli stessi che adesso Mr Putin sta vendendo alla Cina.

* * * * * * *


«Fish prices have gone up extortionately; oil prices have gone up extortionately; and everything across the whole spectrum that we sell has gone up extortionately»

«Now though, rising prices are veering Britain’s economy further off course»

«A third of fish and chip shops are at risk of going bust this year»

«In just a year, prices for Britain’s favourite fish – cod and haddock – are up 75%, sunflower oil is up 60%, and flour is up 40%»

«Inflation reached a 40-year peak of 9% in April, the highest in the G7, and is projected to rise further»

«Cod and chips in Singh’s shop now costs 9.50 pounds, compared to 7.95 pounds a year ago»

«We’re finding it a struggle to keep our prices reasonable and competitive compared to other fast foods that are in the area, and we’ve actually seen a decline in fish sales and customers walking through the door»

«It’s alright for me to go in there and get one portion for myself, but that was eleven pounds just for one person»

«the amount of Arctic cod Britain is allowed to catch in 2022 reduced to around 40% of what it was before leaving the European Union»

«Cod and haddock are sourced in the Barents Sea, north of Norway and Russia, and the war has heightened uncertainty over those supplies»

«Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has driven up fuel and electricity prices, further increasing the cost of catching, and frying, fish. The war has sent cooking oil, fertiliser and flour prices higher too»

«Cod and haddock are sourced in the Barents Sea, north of Norway and Russia, and the war has heightened uncertainty over those supplies»

«In March, the British government listed Russian white fish as among goods to be hit with a 35% tariff as part of sanctions in response to the invasion of Ukraine»

«Sunflower oil is the principle agricultural commodity the UK imports from Ukraine and the government says it is working to substitute it with other vegetable oils»

«shopper numbers in British high streets are 15% down from 2019»

«When I was growing up, it was a poor man’s meal” he said.

“Now, just bought two lots of fish and chips: 23 quid. What family can afford that?»

* * * * * * *


The end of fish and chips? Rising prices threaten a British tradition

– Russian seas provide Britain fish

– Ukraine’s sunflower oil fuels the friers

– British Artic cod quota shrank after Brexit, company says

– Sanctions threat for Russian fish

* * * * * * *

West Drayton, England, May 26 (Reuters) – At west London’s Hooked Fish and Chips, Bally Singh is struggling to keep the tills ringing for a British tradition, with prices sky-rocketing for fish, potatoes, cooking oil and even the flour used for the batter the dish is cooked in.

Cranking up their bubbling oil friers only to see customers stay at home, Singh and thousands of other normally thriving “chippies” across the island nation are navigating the economic fallout of the Ukraine war, the coronavirus pandemic and Brexit.

“Fish prices have gone up extortionately; oil prices have gone up extortionately; and everything across the whole spectrum that we sell has gone up extortionately,” Singh told Reuters.

Fish and chips in hand, Prime Minister Boris Johnson once promised to “build back batter” from the pandemic.

Now though, rising prices are veering Britain’s economy further off course. A third of fish and chip shops are at risk of going bust this year due to a “perfect storm” of price pressures, according to insolvency firm Company Debt.

In just a year, prices for Britain’s favourite fish – cod and haddock – are up 75%, sunflower oil is up 60%, and flour is up 40%, Company Debt said.

Inflation reached a 40-year peak of 9% in April, the highest in the G7, and is projected to rise further. British consumers are more pessimistic than peers in Europe, leading to criticism of both government and Bank of England efforts to keep a lid on the cost of living.  

Cod and chips in Singh’s shop now costs 9.50 pounds, compared to 7.95 pounds a year ago. And Singh said if he passed on all the higher costs, the price would be closer to 11 pounds.

“We’re finding it a struggle to keep our prices reasonable and competitive compared to other fast foods that are in the area, and we’ve actually seen a decline in fish sales and customers walking through the door.”

In the southern seaside town of Swanage, customers said Britain’s inflation problem meant making hard choices.

“It’s alright for me to go in there and get one portion for myself, but that was eleven pounds just for one person,” said Paula Williams, 66, a carer from Weymouth, on a bench outside the Fish Plaice shop.

“When you’ve got a group of five or six, that’s probably more expensive than going to a restaurant.”

                         RUSSIAN FISH FEEDS BRITAIN

Battered fish and fried chips, the chunky equivalent of fries in the United States, have fuelled Britons since the combination was invented 160 years ago.

The meal is such a staple that unlike other food in Britain, it was not rationed during the world wars. Chippies, with their distinctive smell of oil and vinegar, remain a presence in most towns.

Some of the recent difficulties for fish and chip shops began after Brexit, distant-waters trawler company UK Fisheries said, estimating that the amount of Arctic cod Britain is allowed to catch in 2022 reduced to around 40% of what it was before leaving the European Union.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has driven up fuel and electricity prices, further increasing the cost of catching, and frying, fish. The war has sent cooking oil, fertiliser and flour prices higher too.

Cod and haddock are sourced in the Barents Sea, north of Norway and Russia, and the war has heightened uncertainty over those supplies.

In March, the British government listed Russian white fish as among goods to be hit with a 35% tariff as part of sanctions in response to the invasion of Ukraine. It has paused the move, for now, while the impact is investigated.

Sunflower oil is the principle agricultural commodity the UK imports from Ukraine and the government says it is working to substitute it with other vegetable oils: for instance, receiving extra rapeseed shipments from Australia after a strong harvest there.

A spokesperson for Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs said it was “working closely with industry, including the National Federation of Fish Friers, to mitigate the challenges that they are facing.”

However, the federation said fish and chip shops were facing their biggest ever crisis.

“I’m getting daily phone calls from people that are worried that they’re going to go out of business,” NFFF President Andrew Crook told Reuters.

                         ‘POOR MAN’S MEAL’

Footfall data from Springboard shows shopper numbers in British high streets are 15% down from 2019, pre-pandemic, levels.

Fish and chip shops are more exposed than some bigger businesses, Yael Selfin, Chief Economist at KPMG UK told Reuters, because they lack buying power to strike a better deals when global prices rise.

“We are expecting consumers and households to reassess what they’re spending on and potentially cut down,” Selfin said.

In his smart, recently refurbished shop in West Drayton, a suburb in Johnson’s own parliamentary constituency, Singh is looking to cut costs and has added cheaper hake and pollock on the menu. But the energy intensive cookers have to stay on.

“If nobody’s coming in, we’re losing money and we need to keep the oil hot,” he said.

In Swanage, builder Malcolm Petherick, 73, worried changes he has seen over his lifetime might result in Britain losing a part of its cultural heritage.

“When I was growing up, it was a poor man’s meal,” he said.

“Now, just bought two lots of fish and chips: 23 quid. What family can afford that?”

Pubblicato in: Agricoltura, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Fertilizzanti. Costi sempre più elevati che mettono in perdita la produzione.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-05-20.

Gargoyle 002. Base Notre Dame Paris

«Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security»

«For the first time ever, farmers the world over — all at the same time — are testing the limits of how little chemical fertilizer they can apply without devastating their yields come harvest time»

«Early predictions are bleak»

«In Brazil, the world’s biggest soybean producer, a 20% cut in potash use could bring a 14% drop in yields»

«output falling as much as 15% next year if the farmers miss even one-third of normal application»

«In West Africa, falling fertilizer use will shrink this year’s rice and corn harvest by a third»

«For the billions of people around the world who don’t work in agriculture, the global shortage of affordable fertilizer likely reads like a distant problem»

«In even the least-disruptive scenario, soaring prices for synthetic nutrients will result in lower crop yields and higher grocery-store prices for everything from milk to beef to packaged foods for months or even years to come across the developed world»

«I’m reducing the use of fertilizer in this crop cycle. I can’t afford such stratospheric prices»

«If fertilizers are expensive, we’ll use less fertilizers. If we’ll use less»

«Commercial farmers rely on a combination of three key nutrients — nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium — to fuel their harvests»

«The discovery of the Haber-Bosch method in the early 1900s, which is still used to make fertilizer today, has allowed farmers to vastly increase their yields»

«More fertilizer use brings more food production»

«But as costs for synthetic nutrients have skyrocketed — in North America, one gauge of prices is nearly triple where it was at the start of the pandemic — farmers have had to start paring back use, sometimes dramatically»

«Fertilizer prices are up an average of 70% from last year»

«Prices have been climbing for more than a year for a host of reasons: runaway pricing for natural gas, the main feedstock for much of the world’s nitrogen fertilizer»

«sanctions on a major Belarusian potash producer; back-to-back late-summer storms on the U.S. Gulf Coast that temporarily shut-in production in the region»

«That tightening in the physical fertilizer market has galvanized China, the largest phosphate producer, to restrict outgoing shipments in order to build up a stockpile at home, further exacerbating the global shortage»

«Add Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which effectively cut off nearly a fifth of the world’s nutrient exports, and the fertilizer industry and its pricing mechanisms are arguably more broken than ever before»

«In the Philippines, urea — a key nitrogenous fertilizer — is now about 3,000 pesos (about $57) per bag, and even more when transported to the fields. That’s more than three times the price at this time last year»

«Peru’s agricultural industry is facing a deficit of 180,000 metric tons of urea, and output of staples such as rice, potatoes and corn could tumble as much as 40% unless more fertilizer becomes available»

«If they did, it could hurt protein content of the grain and result in a “lower class of wheat»

«Without a doubt, the food that is produced will be more expensive»

* * * * * * *


Mondo. Fertilizzanti. Uno sconsolante studio dei Crop Producers.

Fertilizzanti. Nov21. Prezzi all’ingrosso. Fosfato di diammonio +102.1% YoY.

Fertilizzanti. Si prospetta una carestia a livello mondiale. La fame proprio ci mancava.

Il problema dovrebbe essere chiaro e facilmente comprensibile.

Si resta francamente stupiti che i governi occidentali reprimano la produzione locale dei fertilizzanti, perché la considerano avversa all’ecosistema, inquinante.

Si noti anche come i tempi della agricoltura, dalla aratura alla semina ed infine al raccolto, si articolino sull’arco di sei – otto mesi. Lasso di tempo incomprimibile.

* * * * * * *


Can the World Feed Itself? Historic Fertilizer Crunch Threatens Food Security.

(Bloomberg) — For the first time ever, farmers the world over — all at the same time — are testing the limits of how little chemical fertilizer they can apply without devastating their yields come harvest time. Early predictions are bleak.

In Brazil, the world’s biggest soybean producer, a 20% cut in potash use could bring a 14% drop in yields, according to industry consultancy MB Agro. In Costa Rica, a coffee cooperative representing 1,200 small producers sees output falling as much as 15% next year if the farmers miss even one-third of normal application. In West Africa, falling fertilizer use will shrink this year’s rice and corn harvest by a third, according to the International Fertilizer Development Center, a food security non-profit group.

“Probably farmers will grow enough to feed themselves. But the question is what they will have to feed the cities,” said Patrice Annequin, a senior fertilizer market specialist for IFDC based in Ivory Coast. When you add increased hunger across West Africa on top of existing risks like terrorism, “this is absolutely dangerous for many governments in our region.”

For the billions of people around the world who don’t work in agriculture, the global shortage of affordable fertilizer likely reads like a distant problem. In truth, it will leave no household unscathed. In even the least-disruptive scenario, soaring prices for synthetic nutrients will result in lower crop yields and higher grocery-store prices for everything from milk to beef to packaged foods for months or even years to come across the developed world. And in developing economies already facing high levels of food insecurity? Lower fertilizer use risks engendering malnutrition, political unrest and, ultimately, the otherwise avoidable loss of human life.

“I’m reducing the use of fertilizer in this crop cycle. I can’t afford such stratospheric prices,” Marcelo Cudia, 61, a farmer in the Philippines’ rice-producing region of Central Luzon, said outside the patch of land he’s been cultivating for the last 13 years. About 12,000 miles away, Brazilian soybean farmer Napoleão Rutilli is facing the same tough choices. “If fertilizers are expensive, we’ll use less fertilizers. If we’ll use less, we’ll produce less,” said the second-generation farmer, 33. “Food prices will increase and everyone will suffer.”

                         Why Are Fertilizer Prices Going Up?

Commercial farmers rely on a combination of three key nutrients — nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium — to fuel their harvests. Those inputs have always been key, but it was only about a century ago that humanity learned to manufacture mass-produced ammonia-based nutrients. The discovery of the Haber-Bosch method in the early 1900s, which is still used to make fertilizer today, has allowed farmers to vastly increase their yields. The agriculture industry has since come to depend on — even hinge on — man-made fertilizer. Although soil’s needs are different region to region, the general trend is pretty undisputed: More fertilizer use brings more food production.

But as costs for synthetic nutrients have skyrocketed — in North America, one gauge of prices is nearly triple where it was at the start of the pandemic — farmers have had to start paring back use, sometimes dramatically. That’s put the world in uncharted territory.

“Fertilizer prices are up an average of 70% from last year,” said Timothy Njagi, a researcher at the Tegemeo Institute of Agricultural Policy and Development in Kenya, referring to prices in the country. “The fertilizer is available locally, but it’s out of reach for the majority of farmers. Worse, many farmers know that they cannot recover these costs.”

Prices have been climbing for more than a year for a host of reasons: runaway pricing for natural gas, the main feedstock for much of the world’s nitrogen fertilizer; sanctions on a major Belarusian potash producer; back-to-back late-summer storms on the U.S. Gulf Coast that temporarily shut-in production in the region; plus Covid-19 restrictions that have disrupted every global supply chain, including chemicals.

That tightening in the physical fertilizer market has galvanized China, the largest phosphate producer, to restrict outgoing shipments in order to build up a stockpile at home, further exacerbating the global shortage. Add Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which effectively cut off nearly a fifth of the world’s nutrient exports, and the fertilizer industry and its pricing mechanisms are arguably more broken than ever before.

“Fertilizer sales are very, very low, to the point of desperately low, and this should be traditionally the busiest time of the year,” said Jo Gilbertson, head of fertilizer at Agricultural Industries Confederation, a U.K.-based trade association. “The seeds of the problem are being sown now.”

                         How Will Lower Fertilizer Use Hit Output?

“My biggest concern is that we end up with a very severe shortage of food in certain areas of the world,” Tony Will, the chief executive of the world’s largest nitrogen fertilizer company CF Industries Holdings Inc., said in a March interview.

In the Philippines, urea — a key nitrogenous fertilizer — is now about 3,000 pesos (about $57) per bag, and even more when transported to the fields. That’s more than three times the price at this time last year, said Roger Navarro, president of Philippine Maize Federation Inc. “Farmers will tend to decrease the usual fertilizer dose of their crop and that will lessen the production,” he said, forecasting a 10% drop in yields. “It is rather sad, but this is reality.”

The yield outlook is even worse elsewhere. Peru’s agricultural industry is facing a deficit of 180,000 metric tons of urea, and output of staples such as rice, potatoes and corn could tumble as much as 40% unless more fertilizer becomes available. The International Rice Research Institute predicted crop yields could drop 10% in the next season, meaning there’ll be 36 million fewer tons of rice — enough to feed 500 million people. In Sub-Saharan Africa, food production could drop by about 30 million tons in 2022, equivalent to the food requirement of 100 million people, the IFDC said in December — and that forecast was made before the war in Ukraine pushed prices to new records this spring.

There’s also a growing concern less fertilizer use will result in lower-quality crops. Just ask Gary Millershaski, who farms nearly 4,000 acres of wheat and roughly 3,000 acres of corn and sorghum in southwest Kansas. Also chairman of the Kansas Wheat Commission, Millershaski said the commission’s “biggest fear” this spring is that farmers may have skipped applying nitrogen as the wheat emerged from winter dormancy several weeks ago. If they did, it could hurt protein content of the grain and result in a “lower class of wheat.”

With nearly half of U.S. wheat exported to other countries, that’s a problem that will impact consumers the world over. The harvesting of hard red winter wheat, the most widely grown class in the U.S. and the grain that’s used to make all-purpose flour, will begin in June.

                         How Will Lower Fertilizer Use Hit Inflation?

Without a doubt, the food that is produced will be more expensive. Global food prices are already surging at the fastest pace ever as the war in Ukraine hits crop supplies, with a United Nations index of world food costs soaring another 13% in March.

“Food security is in peril,” Philippines Agriculture Secretary William Dar said in a text message to Bloomberg News.

Rising food prices, without a corresponding increase in incomes, have a long history of triggering social unrest. In 2008 and 2011, soaring inflation triggered food riots in more than 30 nations across Asia, the Middle East and Africa, helping to fuel uprisings in the Arab Spring.

“That’s the big concern: Will the high prices of food have a boomerang reaction?” said Gideon Negedu, executive secretary of the Fertilizer Producers and Suppliers Association of Nigeria and a member of the Presidential Fertilizer Initiative. “The food markets may begin to react to these prices because there is no commensurate increase in average household incomes.”

                         What Can Farmers Do?

Farmers aren’t sitting idly by. Those who managed to secure fertilizer ahead of the latest run-up are being more strategic about how much they use, including leaning into “precision agriculture.” That means collecting more data on their fields, monitoring crops for increased efficiency and rolling out other data analysis tools. Farmers are increasingly testing soil for lingering nutrients and applying exactly as much fertilizer is needed, rather than an overly generous ballpark — a practice that’s been in use across some places like the U.S. and parts of Brazil for decades but isn’t yet commonplace in some other parts of the word.

If a soil tests high for phosphorous or potassium, “often little to no fertilizer is needed at all,” said Carrie Laboski, professor and extension soil scientist at University of Wisconsin-Madison. For some crops like corn, growers might apply a little bit of “starter fertilizer” when they’re planting, which is like insurance if soils are testing high for crop nutrients. When it comes to nitrogen, “they shouldn’t eliminate it, but cut back,” she said.

Some farms are also exploring controlled-release formulations, like tiny capsules of nutrients that dissolve slowly over time. Although not a solution for many commercial farms given their large scales, others are exploring alternatives to chemical fertilizers, including animal waste

“Compost and sewage sludge and biosolids or organic nutrients become more valuable,” said Mark Topliff, lead analyst for farm economics at the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board in the U.K. “The supply of those has been stretched” as more growers turn to alternatives.

Some farmers are even moving away from high-fertilizer crops altogether, like corn, in favor of lower-demand plantings like beans.

Tregg Cronin, a U.S. farmer in central South Dakota who chooses between growing wheat, corn, sunflowers, oats and soybeans, has found himself in an enviable situation: Drought last year left Cronin’s soil with excess nitrogen. So he’s opting to plant 10% more acres of sunflowers — which need the nitrogen more than soybeans do. But if fertilizer prices stay high in the months ahead, next year he’ll pivot to more soybeans. Others are making similar calculations — and hoping they’re betting in the right direction.

“If you really want to play 3D chess,” he said, “you need to be thinking about your rotation next year more so than this year.”

Pubblicato in: Agricoltura, India, Materie Prime

India. Vende 500,000 tonnellate di grano all’Egitto.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-05-19.

India 013

India. Prosegue tranquilla a comprare petrolio dalla Russia. Non accetta le sanzioni di Joe Biden.

«L’enclave liberal occidentale ha dichiarato guerra alla Russia, imponendo sanzioni ad effetto immediato irrispettose dei contratti in essere e fomentando il conflitto russo-ukraino cercando di allargare la Nato a quel paese e piazzandovi missili offensivi.

Ma il mondo libero si è dissociato da tali sanzioni e comportamenti, condannandoli. Solo per citare alcuni stati, Brasile, Arabia Saudita, Emirati Arabi Uniti, India, Cina nonché molti paesi afferenti l’Asean hanno rifiutato e condannato tali sanzioni. Sono quattro miliardi di persone e metà del pil ppp mondiale»

Ma ciò che vale per il petrolio vale anche per tutti gli altri beni.

A pensar male si fa peccato ma ci si azzecca quasi sempre, diceva Giulio Andreotti.

Ci si domanda donde poi arrivino quelle 500,000 tonnellate di grano in esubero.

* * * * * * *

«Egypt’s government has agreed to buy half a million tonnes of wheat from India»

«Egypt, one of the world’s biggest wheat importers, is looking for alternatives to Black Sea grain exports»

«New Delhi announced a ban on wheat exports on Saturday amid a scorching heat wave that has curtailed domestic production and driven up domestic prices»

«the Indian ban would not apply to the deal with Egypt»

«Egypt has four months’ worth of strategic at reserves and six months of vegetable oils, the country’s prime minister said earlier in the day»

* * * * * * *


Exclusive: Egypt to buy 500,000 tonnes of wheat from India

CAIRO, May 15 (Reuters) – Egypt’s government has agreed to buy half a million tonnes of wheat from India, Egyptian Supply Minister Aly Moselhy told Reuters on Sunday.

Egypt, one of the world’s biggest wheat importers, is looking for alternatives to Black Sea grain exports which face disruptions caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, both major wheat exporters to Egypt.

“We have agreed to buy half a million tonnes from India,” Moselhy said, speaking on the sidelines of a press conference.

New Delhi announced a ban on wheat exports on Saturday amid a scorching heat wave that has curtailed domestic production and driven up domestic prices.

However, Moselhy said during the press conference the Indian ban would not apply to the deal with Egypt.

He also said the Egyptian cabinet had given approval for government purchaser the General Authority for Supply Commodities to circumvent its tender process and purchase wheat directly from countries or companies.

Egypt was also in talks with Kazakhstan, France, and Argentina, he said.

Egypt has four months’ worth of strategic at reserves and six months of vegetable oils, the country’s prime minister said earlier in the day.

Officials say that following procurement of the ongoing local harvest, Egyptian wheat reserves would be sufficient until the end of the year.

Pubblicato in: Agricoltura, Banche Centrali, Geopolitica Mondiale, Materie Prime

Mondo. I pochi padroni della produzione alimentare mondiale.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-05-09.

2022-05-04 Il Padrone del Mondo 001

«Archer Daniels Midland, Cargill, Jbs, Bayer, Chem China, Anhauser»

«Sono pochi, è vero, ma sono i veri padroni di tutto il mercato mondiale del cibo

«poche decine di nomi mettono assieme cifre a nove zeri, mentre 1,6 miliardi di produttori fanno la fame nel sud del mondo o faticano a tenersi in piedi nel ricco Occidente, racimolando in media 15 centesimi ogni euro di prodotto venduto»

«È in tutto quattro nomi: circa il 90% del mercato globale dei cereali è intermediato da quattro multinazionali che si chiamano Amber Daniels Midland (Usa), Bunge (Usa, Bermuda), Cargill (Usa) e Louis Dreyfus Commodities (Paesi Bassi)»

«Gli stessi quattro nomi controllano il 70% di tutte le materie prime agricole (oltre ai cereali, riso, olio di palma, zucchero, ecc.)»

«Cargill nell’anno fiscale giugno 2020/giugno 2021 ha dichiarato 135 miliardi di dollari di ricavi, Adm 86 miliardi, Bunge 60 miliardi nel 2021 e Louis Dreyfus 50 miliardi: i profitti netti cumulati si aggirano sui 15 miliardi»

«Qualunque sia il marchio sul pane, sulla bistecca di soia, sul riso che acquistate al supermercato sappiate che quasi sempre dietro ci sono quei quattro nomi»

«Se un pugno di aziende sono il mercato sono loro a decidere il prezzo, a decidere chi vive e chi muore, cosa, dove e come viene coltivato»

«i semi sono quattro nomi: dopo una serie di fusioni negli anni scorsi ChemChina (che in Italia ha quasi mezza Pirelli), Bayer, Corteva (ex Dow-Dupont) e il consorzio francese Limagrain controllano quasi il 60% delle sementi a livello globale, un mercato da 42 miliardi di dollari nel 2020»

«Questo mercato da 126 miliardi di dollari annui è per metà appannaggio di quattro imprese: Cnh Industrial (controllata dalla Exor degli Agnelli e basata in Olanda), le statunitensi Ago e Deere, la giapponese Kubota»

«Oggi l’intera filiera dal campo allo scaffale è un prodotto finanziario ben più che fisico»

«una filiera così estesa e ricca (in Italia nel 2021 valeva 575 miliardi, il 32% del Pil) spartita tra poche società»

«chi sono, dietro le società, i padroni del cibo?»

«BlackRock, Capital Group, Vanguard Group, Sun Life Financial, State Street e il Fondo pensioni norvegese …. hanno partecipazioni in molte multinazionali del cibo»

«Warren Buffet controlla Kraft Heinz col fondo 3g Capital»

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Ecco chi sono i (pochissimi) veri padroni del cibo mondiale e quanto guadagnano ogni anno

Archer Daniels Midland, Cargill, Jbs, Bayer, Chem China, Anhauser. Vi dicono nulla questi nomi? Sono pochi, è vero, ma sono i veri padroni di tutto il mercato mondiale del cibo. Come racconta Marco Palombi in un’importante inchiesta sul Fatto Quotidiano, queste “poche decine di nomi mettono assieme cifre a nove zeri, mentre 1,6 miliardi di produttori fanno la fame nel sud del mondo o faticano a tenersi in piedi nel ricco Occidente, racimolando in media 15 centesimi ogni euro di prodotto venduto”. Si parte dall’esempio del grano: “È in tutto quattro nomi: circa il 90% del mercato globale dei cereali è intermediato da quattro multinazionali che si chiamano Amber Daniels Midland (Usa), Bunge (Usa, Bermuda), Cargill (Usa) e Louis Dreyfus Commodities (Paesi Bassi). Gli stessi quattro nomi controllano il 70% di tutte le materie prime agricole (oltre ai cereali, riso, olio di palma, zucchero, ecc.)”.

Per capirci: “Cargill nell’anno fiscale giugno 2020/giugno 2021 ha dichiarato 135 miliardi di dollari di ricavi, Adm 86 miliardi, Bunge 60 miliardi nel 2021 e Louis Dreyfus 50 miliardi: i profitti netti cumulati si aggirano sui 15 miliardi. Qualunque sia il marchio sul pane, sulla bistecca di soia, sul riso che acquistate al supermercato sappiate che quasi sempre dietro ci sono quei quattro nomi. Una faccenda che ha ricadute enormi. Se un pugno di aziende sono il mercato sono loro a decidere il prezzo, a decidere chi vive e chi muore, cosa, dove e come viene coltivato: per questo, ci dice la Fao, in pochi decenni le grandi monocolture care alle multinazionali hanno ridotto del 75% la biodiversità sul pianeta, a non dire della deforestazione, che nel decennio 2010-2020 s’è mangiata una superficie grande come l’intera Spagna”. Ma mica è finita qua.

Continua Palombi raccontanto il grande business del cibo: “Per fare un albero, ma pure il grano e tutto il resto, ci vuole un seme, si sa, e i semi sono quattro nomi: dopo una serie di fusioni negli anni scorsi ChemChina (che in Italia ha quasi mezza Pirelli), Bayer, Corteva (ex Dow-Dupont) e il consorzio francese Limagrain controllano quasi il 60% delle sementi a livello globale, un mercato da 42 miliardi di dollari nel 2020. E pure i fitofarmaci per l’agricoltura sono quattro nomi: tre sono gli stessi delle sementi, la quarta è la tedesca Badai posto dei francesi di Limagrain, e in quatto valgono il 66% di un settore che fattura quasi 60 miliardi. Un mostro a cinque teste da centinaia di miliardi di dollari di ricavi annui che fa il bello e il cattivo tempo sui contadini dell’intero pianeta”. E se a quei poverini serve un trattore, una mietitrebbia o altri macchinari agricoli?

“Questo mercato da 126 miliardi di dollari annui è per metà appannaggio di quattro imprese: Cnh Industrial (controllata dalla Exor degli Agnelli e basata in Olanda), le statunitensi Ago e Deere, la giapponese Kubota. Pochi proprietari, molti produttori, miliardi di consumatori: lo schema funziona in tutti i recessi del mercato del cibo”. E ancora, altro problema: “Secondo un report 2017 di Coldiretti nella grande distribuzione i primi dieci grandi rivenditori di generi alimentari coprono il 30% delle vendite mondiali (dal colosso Walmart ai tedeschi di Schwarz Group, quelli di Lidl, fino ai francesi di Carrefour, in attesa della crescita scontata di Amazon)”. E anche i marchi produttori non sono da meno: “Quattro o cinque società pesano per metà o due terzi delle vendite dell’80% dei prodotti alimentari”.

“L’intero sistema – spiega Palombi – è pensato per pompare utili verso azionisti e manager illudendo i consumatori (dei Paesi ricchi, ma non solo) di poter scegliere sulla base della propria irripetibile individualità, mentre si estrae valore sfruttando agricoltori, lavoratori e risorse naturali”. Il cibo è una commodities come le altre: “Oggi l’intera filiera dal campo allo scaffale è un prodotto finanziario ben più che fisico”. E di fatto oggi il prezzo di materie prime come il grano “ha più a che fare con la finanza che coi costi di produzione o con la domanda”. E così, “una filiera così estesa e ricca (in Italia nel 2021 valeva 575 miliardi, il 32% del Pil) spartita tra poche società è un fatto che finisce per modellare il mondo”. Resta da chiedersi: chi sono, dietro le società, i padroni del cibo? “Sono i soliti noti e, al solito, puntano su tutti i giocatori: fondi come BlackRock, Capital Group, Vanguard Group, Sun Life Financial, State Street e il Fondo pensioni norvegese (che non è il piccolo e bonario investitore che il nome farebbe presumere) hanno partecipazioni in molte multinazionali del cibo – teoricamente concorrenti tra loro – ma al gioco partecipano anche grandi investitori privati (Warren Buffet controlla Kraft Heinz col fondo 3g Capital) e qualche banca (CréditAgricole, Deutsche Bank, ecc.)”.