Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Persona Umana, Stati Uniti

Midterm. Si preannuncia una lotta serrata. Qui alcune competizioni critiche.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-01-18.

Elezioni 001

«The 2022 midterm elections are fast approaching and could be a major test of both voter approval of President Joe Biden and the strength of former President Donald Trump’s influence within the Republican party»

«Republicans are looking to regain control of both the Senate and the House in 2022 as Democrats try to preserve and build on a razor-thin majority»

«here are some key races to watch in 2022»

* * * * * * *


The midterms are coming. Here are some key races to watch.

The 2022 midterm elections are fast approaching and could be a major test of both voter approval of President Joe Biden and the strength of former President Donald Trump’s influence within the Republican party.

Republicans are looking to regain control of both the Senate and the House in 2022 as Democrats try to preserve and build on a razor-thin majority.

While many swing states are still working to finalize their congressional districts, here are some key races to watch in 2022:

                         Pennsylvania Senate race

With Republican Sen. Pat Toomey not seeking reelection, Pennsylvania is one state Democrats are hoping to pick up in 2022. Rep. Conor Lamb, a moderate, is facing Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and progressive state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta in the Democratic primary. In late November, Dr. Mehmet Oz announced his candidacy, joining a crowded Republican primary field.

                         Ohio Senate race

With the retirement of Republican Sen. Rob Portman, former presidential candidate Rep. Tim Ryan is looking to pick up this seat for Democrats. In the GOP primary, Ohio treasurer Josh Mandel — considered the front-runner — faces “Hillbilly Elegy” author JD Vance, who was once a vocal critic of Trump but is now running on an anti-elitism message that embraces Trumpism.

                         North Carolina Senate race

Republicans are hoping to hold the seat of retiring Sen. Richard Burr. In the Republican primary, Trump has thrown his support behind Rep. Ted Budd, who faces a tough battle against former Rep. Mark Walker and former Gov. Pat McCrory. Democratic state Sen. Jeff Jackson suspended his campaign in mid-December and threw his support behind former state Supreme Court Justice Chari Beasley, who is the leading Democrat and could become the only Black woman in the Senate and the first ever to represent North Carolina.

                         Georgia Senate race

Only two years after being elected as the first Black Senator from Georgia and delivering Democrats control of the Senate in 2020, Sen. Raphael Warnock is back in the national spotlight defending his seat. On the GOP side, former football star Herschel Walker is seen as the front-runner to challenge Warnock and has Trump’s endorsement. But Walker’s lack of political experience and a troubled history has some Republicans worried.

                         Arizona Senate race

Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly is running for reelection after winning a special election in 2020, giving Arizona two Democrats in the Senate for the first time in over 50 years. Arizona has moved into solidly purple territory and a crowded Republican primary field has lined up in an attempt to unseat Kelly. Current Attorney General Mark Brnovich is in the running, as is Blake Masters, who has backing from prominent Silicon Valley executive Peter Thiel and businessman Jim Lamon. The 2020 election is playing a central role in the wake of Arizona’s so-called “audit” and Trump’s lies that the election in the state was stolen. The former president has yet to endorse in the race.

                         Wisconsin Senate race

Incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson still has not announced whether he will run for reelection in Wisconsin, which Biden flipped with a roughly 20,000-vote lead over Trump in 2020. Current Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes is the top Democrat in the race and has netted endorsements from Sen. Elizabeth Warren and House Majority Whip James Clyburn. Johnson has received pushback on some of his responses to the pandemic, including frequent anti-vaccine rhetoric.

                         Alaska Senate race

After incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski voted to convict Trump on charges of inciting an insurrection, state official Kelly Tshibaka jumped into the all-party primary to unseat her. Tshibaka netted an early endorsement from the former president and has mirrored his attacks on Murkowski and others in Washington throughout her campaign. She recently said she would not support Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell to lead the GOP — whether or not the party controls the Senate — joining a small group of far-right Republican hopefuls who have said the same.

                         Georgia governor race

It feels like 2018 all over again, with a possible rematch between Democratic candidate Stacey Abrams and Republican Gov. Brian Kemp for his seat in Georgia. It’s been nearly four years since Kemp narrowly defeated Abrams, pushing her to mobilize voters and fight voter suppression. However, Kemp has to get through a tough primary in which he is facing off against former Republican Sen. David Perdue, who lost his Senate seat in 2020. Perdue has secured Trump’s endorsement and is echoing the former president’s false claim of voter fraud in the 2020 election.

                         Michigan governor race

Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is pursuing a reelection bid after Biden flipped the state in 2020. Whitmer has received national recognition for her handling of the coronavirus pandemic and became a prominent figure before the 2020 election during Biden’s hunt for a running mate. She was subject to a kidnapping plot in late 2020 after an extremist group in the state became angry with her over coronavirus restrictions. Former Detroit Police Chief James Craig, who was once a Democrat, is a top contender in the crowded Republican primary.

                         Wyoming House race

Rep. Liz Cheney has a target on her back this midterm election cycle. As one of 10 Republicans who voted to impeach Trump in 2021 for inciting an insurrection, she was censured by the Wyoming GOP, and many Republicans are looking to kick her out of office. Trump has gotten involved in Wyoming’s lone House race by throwing his endorsement behind Cheney’s primary challenger, Harriet Hageman.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Giustizia, Stati Uniti

US Corte Suprema. Nel 2022 cambierà la situazione politica americana e mondiale.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-01-17.

suprema-corte-013

Incapaci di trovare un dignitoso accordo politico, democratici e repubblicani hanno intentato una ridda di azioni legali nel tentativo di risolvere nelle corti di giustizia asperità che avrebbero dovuto essere mutuate in parlamento.

Orbene, tutte codeste azioni legali sono alla fine approdate alla Corte Suprema, che le ha iscritte alla discussione nei primi mesi dell’anno 2022.

Dovrebbe essere evidente come queste sentenze, a qualsiasi conclusione pervengano, muteranno in modo stabile per decenni il quadro politico americano, senza tener poi conto che a novembre si terranno le elezioni di midterm.

Ma una mutazione del quadro politico americano significa un cambiamento degli assetti politici internazionali.

Ne riportiamo per punti solo i tre temi di principale interesse.

«The rubber hits the road in legal fights over Biden vaccine mandates»

«Biden’s efforts to aid Congress’ January 6 investigation hit inflection point in court»

«Confronting a Supreme Court case with generational stakes for abortion rights»

* * * * * * *

«There is little the Biden administration could do to counteract»

L’Amministrazione Biden non può far nulla contro le decisioni della Suprema Corte.

Le nove Loro Giustizie della Corte Suprema sono gli arbitri della situazione politica attuale e di quella futura, segno evidente della disgregazione della politica americana.

Agiranno con giustizia secondo Costituzione.

* * * * * * *


US Supreme Court. Si annunciano tempi difficili per le Corti Distrettuali.

Usa. Suprema Corte ammette il Mississippi sulle restrizioni all’aborto.

Usa. La Suprema Corte sentenzia a favore del pipeline della PennEast.

Usa. Suprema Corte. Sentenzia a favore dell’Arizona sulle restrizioni al voto.

Usa. Suprema Corte. I migranti entrati illegalmente non possono chiedere la ‘green cards’. – Nbc.

Usa, Suprema Corte. Come le sentenze sono intervenute in materia elettorale.

Usa. Procuratori Generali chiedono che la Suprema Corte discuta sul voto postale.

Usa. Corte Suprema. Rivaluterà la sentenza Roe v. Wade sull’aborto.

Battaglia finale. I temi sottoposti alla Suprema  Corte. Ecco le sentenze che cambieranno il mondo

From vaccine mandates to abortion to insurrection probes, key court fights could shape Biden’s legacy.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Senza categoria, Stati Uniti

Joe Biden. Indice di approvazione Rasmussen -31%. Il migliore alleato dei repubblicani.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-01-15.

2022-01-15__ Rasmussen 001

                         In sintesi.

– 18% who Strongly Approve of the job Biden

– 49% who Strongly Disapprove

* * * * * * *

Joe Biden si conferma quale migliore alleato dei repubblicani.

Intanto le elezioni di midterm si stanno avvicinando.

E, come diceva Napoleone, mai fermare un avversario che stia facendo errori.

* * * * * * *


Daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, …. for Friday shows that 38% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Biden’s job performance. Sixty percent (60%) disapprove.

The latest figures include 18% who Strongly Approve of the job Biden is doing and 49% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -31. 

Some readers wonder how we come up with our job approval ratings for the president since they often don’t show as dramatic a change as some other pollsters do. It depends on how you ask the question and whom you ask.

To get a sense of longer-term job approval trends for the president, Rasmussen Reports compiles our tracking data on a full month-by-month basis.

Rasmussen Reports has been a pioneer in the use of automated telephone polling techniques, but many other firms still utilize their own operator-assisted technology (see methodology).

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 2.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Cina, Devoluzione socialismo, India, Regno Unito, Russia, Stati Uniti

Mondo. Proiezioni delle nazioni al 2050. Il trionfo dell’oriente. – Bloomberg.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-01-04.

2022-01-01__ Proiezini GDP PPP al 2050 001

Pwc ha reso disponibile il report The World in 20250.

È un testo particolarmente lungo, per cui ne forniremo solo alcuni abstract.

* * * * * * *

«In our latest World in 2050 report we present economic growth projections for 32 of the largest economies in the world, accounting for around 84% of global GDP »

«But we expect a slowdown in global growth after 2020, as the rate of expansion in China and some other major emerging economies moderates to a more sustainable long-term rate, and as working age population growth slows in many large economies»

«China has already overtaken the US in 2014 to become the largest economy in purchasing power parity (PPP2) terms»

«In market exchange rate (MER) terms, we project China to overtake the US in 2028 despite its projected growth slowdown»

«The US could be down to third place in the global GDP rankings while the EU27’s share of world GDP could fall below 10% by 2050»

«We project new emerging economies like Mexico and Indonesia to be larger than the UK and France by 2030 (in PPP terms) while Turkey could become larger than Italy. Nigeria and Vietnam could be the fast growing large economies over the period to 2050»

«These are based on a model that takes account of projected trends in demographics, capital investment, education levels and technological progress»

«India’s share of world GDP in PPP terms could increase steadily from just under 7% in 2014 to around 13.5% in 2050»

«Our model projects that Indonesia (9th in 2014) and Brazil (7th in 2014) could rise to amongst the top 5 largest economies by 2050 in terms of GDP at PPPs»

Nota. La proiezione della EU27 deriva da un conto aggiornato.

* * * * * * *

Questa Tabella conferma sostanzialmente le precedenti.

Entro il 2050, ossia tra trenta anni, il blocco asiatico avrà a livello mondiale il predominio economico indiscusso.

Ciò che Bloomberg denomina ‘Free Economies’ altro non sarebbe che l’enclave liberal socialista occidentale, sempre poi che a tale data esista ancora. A tale data il suo spopolamento degli autoctoni sarà altamente drammatico.

L’occidente è destinato a scomparire, non tanto per la aggressività dei cinesi quanto piuttosto per la sua ideologia suicida.

Ci si metta quindi l’anima in pace. Quello delineato sarà il mondo i cui vivranno i nostri figli e nipoti.

* * * * * * *


Only 26% of World GDP to Come From Free Economies in 2050. – Bloomberg

«                       Highlights

In our latest World in 2050 report we present economic growth projections for 32 of the largest economies in the world, accounting for around 84% of global GDP.

We project the world economy to grow at an average of just over 3% per annum in the period 2014 – 50, doubling in size by 2037 and nearly tripling by 2050.

But we expect a slowdown in global growth after 2020, as the rate of expansion in China and some other major emerging economies moderates to a more sustainable long-term rate, and as working age population growth slows in many large economies.

The global economic power shift1 away from the established advanced economies in North America, Western Europe and Japan will continue over the next 35 years. China has already overtaken the US in 2014 to become the largest economy in purchasing power parity (PPP2) terms. In market exchange rate (MER) terms, we project China to overtake the US in 2028 despite its projected growth slowdown.

India has the potential to become the second largest economy in the world by 2050 in PPP terms (third in MER terms), although this requires a sustained programme of structural reforms3.

We project new emerging economies like Mexico and Indonesia to be larger than the UK and France by 2030 (in PPP terms) while Turkey could become larger than Italy. Nigeria and Vietnam could be the fast growing large economies over the period to 2050.

Colombia, Poland and Malaysia all possess great potential for sustainable long-term growth in the coming decades according to our country experts.

At the same time, recent experience has re-emphasised that relatively rapid growth is not guaranteed for emerging economies, as indicated by recent problems in Russia and Brazil, for example. It requires sustained and effective investment in infrastructure and improving political, economic, legal and social institutions. It also requires remaining open to the free flow of technology, ideas and talented people that are key drivers of economic catch-up growth.

We think that overdependence on natural resources could also impede long term growth in some countries (e.g. Russia, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia) unless they can diversify their economies.

                         Key findings: GDP projections to 2050

This report updates our long-term global economic growth projections4, which were last published in January 2013. These are based on a model that takes account of projected trends in demographics, capital investment, education levels and technological progress. We have updated both the base year data (from 2011 to 2014) and future assumptions on the key drivers of growth, as well as expanding the coverage of the model from 24 to 32 countries (now accounting for around 84% of total world GDP at PPP exchange rates).

The changing league table of world GDP in PPP terms is shown in Table 1. China is already the world’s biggest economy in PPP terms, and we project that India could have the potential to just overtake the US as the world’s second largest economy by 2050 in PPP terms (although the projected difference is small relative to the margin of uncertainty around any such projections).

We project that the gap between the three biggest economies (i.e. China, India and the US) and the rest of the world will widen over the next few decades. In 2014, the third biggest economy in PPP terms (India) is around 50% larger than the fourth biggest economy (Japan). In 2050, the third biggest economy in PPP terms (the US) is projected to be approximately 240% larger than the fourth biggest economy (Indonesia).

The rise of Indonesia and Nigeria through the world rankings throughout the period to 2050 is very striking: Indonesia rises from 9th in 2014 to 4th in 2050, and Nigeria rises from 20th in 2014 to 9th in 2050.

However, average income per capita (i.e. GDP per capita) will still be significantly higher in the advanced economies than the emerging economies in 2050. The current gap in income per capita between developing and developed countries is just too large to bridge fully over this period.»

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Psichiatria, Stati Uniti

Biden. Commento della Casa Bianca ai dati sulla inflazione. – Fotocopia.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-01-13.

2022-01-13__ Biden WH 001

Questo è il commento ufficiale rilasciato da Biden sull’Indice dei Prezzi al Consumo.

Lo riportiamo anche in fotocopia per maggiore chiarezza.

WH.GOV. Statement by President Biden on the Consumer Price Index.

Today’s report—which shows a meaningful reduction in headline inflation over last month, with gas prices and food prices falling—demonstrates that we are making progress in slowing the rate of price increases. At the same time, this report underscores that we still have more work to do, with price increases still too high and squeezing family budgets.

Inflation is a global challenge, appearing in virtually every developed nation as it emerges from the pandemic economic slump. America is fortunate that we have one of the fastest growing economies—thanks in part to the American Rescue Plan—which enables us to address price increases and maintain strong, sustainable economic growth. That is my goal and I am focused on reaching it every day.

* * * * * * *

Riportiamo solo alcune note al testo.

«which shows a meaningful reduction in headline inflation over last month»

Il dato di Nov21 era6.8; contro quello attuale del 7.0%. ‘meaningful reduction’? Proprio si direbbe il contrario.

* * *

«gas prices and food prices falling»

US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index – December 2021

«By far the largest increase was that of the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs, which rose 12.5 percent over the year …. The index for natural gas rose 24.1 percent over the last 12 months»

* * * * * * *

Non abbiamo parole sufficientemente dure per stigmatizzare questo uso disinvolto della menzogna. Lo additiamo al pubblico ludibrio.

* * * * * * *

«President Joe Biden said his administration is “making progress” in battling cost-of-living increases, pointing to slower gains last month in energy and food prices, even as headline consumer inflation hit the highest in almost four decades.

Wednesday’s report from the Labor Department on the consumer price index “shows a meaningful reduction in headline inflation over last month, with gas prices and food prices falling,” Biden said in a statement on Wednesday.» [Bloomberg]

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

Usa. Dec21. Indice dei Prezzi al Consumo, CPI, +7.0% anno su anno. Inflazione davvero alta.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-01-12.

2022-01-12__ Isa CPI 001

                         In sintesi.

– Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 7.0 percent, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending June 1982

– The energy index rose 29.3 percent over the last year

– food index increased 6.3 percent

– By far the largest increase was that of the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs, which rose 12.5 percent over the year

– The food at home index rose 6.5 percent over the last 12 months

– The index for limited service meals rose 8.0 percent over the last 12 months

– The energy index rose 29.3 percent over the past 12 months

– The index for natural gas rose 24.1 percent over the last 12 months

– the electricity index rose 6.3 percent

– index for all items less food and energy rose 5.5 percent over the past 12 mo

– Major contributors to this increase include shelter (+4.1 percent) and used cars and trucks (+37.3 percent)

– Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 7.0 percent over the last 12 months

* * * * * * *

Questi dati al consumo erano attesi, stante il contino degrado del sistema economico americano.

L’inflazione morde gli alimentari con aumenti fino al 12.5% per pollame, pesci e uova.

L’indice energetico è salito del 29.3%, in gran parte retto dall’aumento del costo del gas naturale, +24.1%.

* * * * * * *


US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index – December 2021

 The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.8 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 7.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.

 Increases in the indexes for shelter and for used cars and trucks were the largest contributors to the seasonally adjusted all items increase. The food index also contributed, although it increased less than in recent months, rising 0.5 percent in December. The energy index declined in December, ending a long series of increases; it fell 0.4 percent as the indexes for gasoline and natural gas both decreased.

 The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.6 percent in December following a 0.5-percent increase in November. This was the sixth time in the last 9 months it has increased at least 0.5 percent. Along with the indexes for shelter and for used cars and trucks, the indexes for household furnishings and operations, apparel, new vehicles, and medical care all increased in December. As in November, the indexes for motor vehicle insurance and recreation were among the few to decline over the month.

 The all items index rose 7.0 percent for the 12 months ending December, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending June 1982. The all items less food and energy index rose 5.5 percent, the largest 12-month change since the period ending February 1991. The energy index rose 29.3 percent over the last year, and the food index increased 6.3 percent.

                         Food.

 The food index increased 0.5 percent in December following larger increases in each of the three previous months. The food at home index increased 0.4 percent in December after rising 0.8 percent in November. Five of the six major grocery store food group indexes increased in December. The index for fruits and vegetables increased the most, rising 0.9 percent over the month as the index for fresh fruits increased 1.8 percent. The index for nonalcoholic beverages rose 0.8 percent in December, and the index for dairy and related products increased 0.7 percent. The index for other food at home rose 0.6 percent, and the index for cereals and bakery products increased 0.4 percent over the month.

 The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs declined in December, falling 0.4 percent after rising at least 0.7 percent in each of the last 7 months. The indexes for beef (-2.0 percent) and pork (-0.8 percent) declined after recent sharp increases.

 The food away from home index rose 0.6 percent in December, the same increase as in November. The index for full service meals rose 0.8 percent, and the index for limited service meals advanced 0.6 percent over the month.

 The food at home index rose 6.5 percent over the last 12 months; this compares to a 1.5-percent annual increase over the last 10 years. All of the six major grocery store food group indexes increased over the period. By far the largest increase was that of the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs, which rose 12.5 percent over the year despite falling in December. The index for dairy and related products increased 1.6 percent, the smallest increase among the groups.

 The index for food away from home rose 6.0 percent over the last year, the largest increase since January 1982. The index for limited service meals rose 8.0 percent over the last 12 months, and the index for full service meals rose 6.6 percent. The index for food at employee sites and schools, in contrast, declined 49.3 percent over the past 12 months, reflecting widespread free lunch programs.

                         Energy.

 The energy index declined 0.4 percent in December; this followed a 3.5-percent increase in November and was its first decrease since April 2021. The gasoline index fell 0.5 percent in December after rising 6.1 percent in both November and October. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices fell 2.2 percent in December.) The index for natural gas also declined in December, falling 1.2 percent after rising in each of the last 10 months. The electricity index, in contrast, rose in December, increasing 0.3 percent, the same increase as in November.

 The energy index rose 29.3 percent over the past 12 months with all major energy component indexes increasing. The gasoline index rose 49.6 percent over the last year. The index for natural gas rose 24.1 percent over the last 12 months, and the electricity index rose 6.3 percent.

                         All items less food and energy.

 The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.6 percent in December. The shelter index increased 0.4 percent in December as the indexes for rent and owners’ equivalent rent both rose 0.4 percent, the same increases as in November and October. The index for used cars and trucks continued to rise, advancing 3.5 percent in December after increasing 2.5 percent in each of the prior 2 months.

 The index for household furnishings and operations rose 1.1 percent over the month as the indexes for furniture and bedding and for housekeeping supplies increased. The apparel index rose 1.7 percent over the month, its largest increase since January 2021. The index for new vehicles continued to rise, increasing 1.0 percent in December; this was its eighth consecutive monthly increase of at least 1.0 percent.

 The medical care index rose 0.3 percent in December. The index for hospital services increased 0.2 percent and the index for prescription drugs rose 0.1 percent, while the index for physicians’ services was unchanged. Other indexes that rose in December include airline fares (+2.7 percent), personal care (+0.5 percent), tobacco (+0.7 percent), and education (+0.1 percent).

 In contrast to these increases, the motor vehicle insurance index fell 1.5 percent in December after declining 0.8 percent the prior month. The recreation index fell 0.2 percent in December, the same decline as last month. The communication index was unchanged over the month.

 The index for all items less food and energy rose 5.5 percent over the past 12 months, its largest 12-month increase since the period ending February 1991. Major contributors to this increase include shelter (+4.1 percent) and used cars and trucks (+37.3 percent). However, the increase is broad-based, with virtually all component indexes showing increases over the past 12 months.

                         Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures.

 The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 7.0 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 278.802 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.3 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.

 The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 7.8 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 273.925 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index rose 0.3 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.

 The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased 6.9 percent over the last 12 months. For the month, the index increased 0.3 percent on a not seasonally adjusted basis. Please note that the indexes for the past 10 to 12 months are subject to revision.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

Midterm. Democratici in lieve vantaggio nei sondaggi generici, parità negli altri.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-01-11.

2022-01-07__ Midterm 001

«Republicans have lost their lead on the generic congressional ballot ahead of November’s midterm elections»

«The survey shows Democrats narrowly leading Republicans on the generic ballot, 39 percent to 37 percent»

«However, according to the latest poll’s findings, Republicans are necessarily not hemorrhaging support to Democrats — rather more Republicans said they were undecided»

«Undecided voters ticked up 16 percent to 24 percent from November to January»

«The poll also showed dismal approval ratings for President Biden, a bad sign for down-ballot Democrats going into this year»

«Biden’s approval rating only increased 2 points, from 38 percent to 40 percent, between November and January»

«Additionally, 62 percent of respondents said he isn’t a strong leader»

«numerous other polls show Republicans leading»

«the nonpartisan Cook Political Report released ratings showing House Republicans with a clear advantage in the battle for the lower chamber»

* * * * * * *

Al contrario, le previsioni fatte per il Congresso dal 270toWin, calcolate stato per stato, danno il risultato proposto nella mappetta.

135 seggi sicuri per i democratici e 134 seggi sicuri per i repubblicani. I seggi indecidibili sono 14, e saranno questi a decidere a quale partito tocchi la maggioranza.

* * * * * * *


Republicans lose edge on generic congressional ballot: poll.

Republicans have lost their lead on the generic congressional ballot ahead of November’s midterm elections, according to a new USA Today-Suffolk University poll released on Tuesday. 

The survey shows Democrats narrowly leading Republicans on the generic ballot, 39 percent to 37 percent, marking a major shift from the GOP’s previous 8-point lead in a November USA Today-Suffolk University poll. The Democrats’ lead falls with the poll’s 3.1 percentage margin of error. 

However, according to the latest poll’s findings, Republicans are necessarily not hemorrhaging support to Democrats — rather more Republicans said they were undecided. Undecided voters ticked up 16 percent to 24 percent from November to January. 

The poll also showed dismal approval ratings for President Biden, a bad sign for down-ballot Democrats going into this year. Biden’s approval rating only increased 2 points, from 38 percent to 40 percent, between November and January. Additionally, 62 percent of respondents said he isn’t a strong leader. 

The findings come as the midterm campaign season starts to kick off in earnest with the new year. Republicans have the historical advantage, given that the minority party usually gains seats in the midterms during a sitting president’s first term. On top of that, numerous other polls show Republicans leading.

Last week, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report released ratings showing House Republicans with a clear advantage in the battle for the lower chamber.  The ratings show Democrats defending eight “toss-up” districts across seven states. Republicans, on the other hand, are defending six toss-up seats in four states at this point. 

The USA Today-Suffolk University poll was conducted Dec. 27-30 among 1,000 registered voters. Its margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Stati Uniti

US. Dec21. Nonfarm Payroll precipita a 199,000. Attesi 400,000. Una débâcle.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-01-10.

2022-01-08__ Us NonFarm Payrolls 001

«Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 199,000 in December, and the unemployment rate declined to 3.9 percent»

«The unemployment rate declined by 0.3 percentage point to 3.9 percent in December, and the number of unemployed persons decreased by 483,000 to 6.3 million»

«unemployed persons numbered 5.7 million»

«Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.6 percent), adult women (3.6 percent), and Whites (3.2 percent) declined in December. The jobless rates for teenagers (10.9 percent), Blacks (7.1 percent), Asians (3.8 percent), and Hispanics (4.9 percent) showed little or no change over the month»

«The number of persons on temporary layoff was little changed at 812,000 in December»

«The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) declined by 185,000 to 2.0 million in December. …. but is 887,000 higher than in February 2020»

«The long-term unemployed accounted for 31.7 percent of the total unemployed in December»

«The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 3.9 million in December»

«The number of persons not in the labor force who currently want a job was little changed at 5.7 million in December»

* * * * * * *

«The Labor Department’s report showed nonfarm payrolls increased by 199,000 jobs in December, although the unemployment rate dropped to 3.9% from 4.2% in November»

«Wall Street’s main indexes were set to slip at the open on Friday after data pointed to weaker-than-expected job growth, while a rise in wages fueled concerns about higher inflation»

«The topline is a disappointment»

«Hourly wages are not coming down much»

«The hawkish tone spurred a rally in U.S. Treasury yields while prompting investors to swap technology-heavy growth shares with more cyclical parts of the market such as energy, financials and industrials that tend to do better in a high interest-rate environment»

«Fed funds futures imply a 90% chance of a 25-basis point tightening at the March Fed meeting, and at least three rate hikes by the end of the year»

* * * * * * *

Questi macrodati sono l’ennesima débâcle economica collezionata dalla Harris-Biden Administration e dalla Fed, che proprio non riescono a generare qualche posto di lavoro. 199,000 posti nuovi per una nazione di 332 milioni di abitanti sono una quota infinitesimale.

Né tanto meno, la Harris-Biden Administration e la Fed sono al momento in grado di arginare l’inflazione crescente.

Stanno mandando l’America alla malora.

* * * * * * *


US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Employment Situation — December 2021

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 199,000 in December, and the unemployment rate declined to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, in manufacturing, in construction, and in transportation and warehousing.

This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information about the concepts and statistical methodology used in these two surveys, see the Technical Note.

                         Household Survey Data.

The unemployment rate declined by 0.3 percentage point to 3.9 percent in December, and the number of unemployed persons decreased by 483,000 to 6.3 million. Over the year, these measures are down by 2.8 percentage points and 4.5 million, respectively. In February 2020, prior to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the unemployment rate was 3.5 percent, and unemployed persons numbered 5.7 million. (See table A-1. See the box note at the end of this news release for more information about how the household survey and its measures were affected by the coronavirus pandemic.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.6 percent), adult women (3.6 percent), and Whites (3.2 percent) declined in December. The jobless rates for teenagers (10.9 percent), Blacks (7.1 percent), Asians (3.8 percent), and Hispanics (4.9 percent) showed little or no change over the month. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

Among the unemployed, the number of permanent job losers, at 1.7 million in December, declined by 202,000 over the month and is down by 1.8 million over the year. The number of persons on temporary layoff was little changed at 812,000 in December but is down by 2.3 million over the year. The number of permanent job losers in December is 408,000 higher than in February 2020, while the number on temporary layoff has essentially returned to its February 2020 level. (See table A-11.)

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) declined by 185,000 to 2.0 million in December. This measure is down from 4.0 million a year earlier but is 887,000 higher than in February 2020. The long-term unemployed accounted for 31.7 percent of the total unemployed in December. (See table A-12.)

The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 61.9 percent in December but remains 1.5 percentage points lower than in February 2020. The employment-population ratio increased by 0.2 percentage point to 59.5 percent in December but is 1.7 percentage points below its February 2020 level. Over the year, these measures have increased by 0.4 percentage point and 2.1 percentage points, respectively. (See table A-1.)

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 3.9 million in December, decreased by 337,000 over the month. The over-the-year decline of 2.2 million brings this measure to 461,000 below its February 2020 level. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. (See table A-8.)

The number of persons not in the labor force who currently want a job was little changed at 5.7 million in December. This measure decreased by 1.6 million over the year but is 717,000 higher than in February 2020. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job. (See table A-1.)

Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of persons marginally attached to the labor force was essentially unchanged at 1.6 million in December. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, was also essentially unchanged over the month, at 463,000. (See Summary table A.)

* * * * * * *

Employment Situation Summary Table A. Household data, seasonally adjusted

Employment Situation Summary Table B. Establishment data, seasonally adjusted

Employment Situation Frequently Asked Questions

Employment Situation Technical Note

Table A-1. Employment status of the civilian population by sex and age

Table A-2. Employment status of the civilian population by race, sex, and age

Table A-3. Employment status of the Hispanic or Latino population by sex and age

Table A-4. Employment status of the civilian population 25 years and over by educational attainment

Table A-5. Employment status of the civilian population 18 years and over by veteran status, period of service, and sex, not seasonally adjusted

Table A-6. Employment status of the civilian population by sex, age, and disability status, not seasonally adjusted

Table A-7. Employment status of the civilian population by nativity and sex, not seasonally adjusted

Table A-8. Employed persons by class of worker and part-time status

Table A-9. Selected employment indicators

Table A-10. Selected unemployment indicators, seasonally adjusted

Table A-11. Unemployed persons by reason for unemployment

Table A-12. Unemployed persons by duration of unemployment

Table A-13. Employed and unemployed persons by occupation, not seasonally adjusted

Table A-14. Unemployed persons by industry and class of worker, not seasonally adjusted

Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization

Table A-16. Persons not in the labor force and multiple jobholders by sex, not seasonally adjusted

Table B-1. Employees on nonfarm payrolls by industry sector and selected industry detail

Table B-2. Average weekly hours and overtime of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted

Table B-3. Average hourly and weekly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted

Table B-4. Indexes of aggregate weekly hours and payrolls for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted

Table B-5. Employment of women on nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted

Table B-6. Employment of production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted(1)

Table B-7. Average weekly hours and overtime of production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted(1)

Table B-8. Average hourly and weekly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted(1)

Table B-9. Indexes of aggregate weekly hours and payrolls for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted(1)

* * * * * * *


Wall Street eyes lower open after soft jobs data

Jan 7 (Reuters) – Wall Street’s main indexes were set to slip at the open on Friday after data pointed to weaker-than-expected job growth, while a rise in wages fueled concerns about higher inflation.

The Labor Department’s report showed nonfarm payrolls increased by 199,000 jobs in December, although the unemployment rate dropped to 3.9% from 4.2% in November, underscoring tightening labor market conditions.

Economists surveyed by Reuters expected nonfarm payrolls to increase by 400,000 jobs in December. The average hourly earnings rose by 0.6% against expectations of 0.4%.

“The topline is a disappointment but the growth of the labor market remains firm,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York.

“Hourly wages are not coming down much, which suggests the Fed is not likely to be derailed by this headline number.”

The data comes after the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting signaled the central bank may have to raise interest rates sooner than expected amid a “very tight” job market and unabated inflation.

The hawkish tone spurred a rally in U.S. Treasury yields while prompting investors to swap technology-heavy growth shares with more cyclical parts of the market such as energy, financials and industrials that tend to do better in a high interest-rate environment.

Fed funds futures imply a 90% chance of a 25-basis point tightening at the March Fed meeting, and at least three rate hikes by the end of the year.

Shares of Occidental Petroleum and Citigroup rose 1.0% and 0.6%, respectively, in premarket trading, leading gains among major oil and banking companies.

The S&P 500 energy sector, which has gained 9% so far this week, was set for its best weekly rise in ten months. The broader value index added 0.8% this week, outperforming its growth counterpart, which is eyeing its worst week since late February 2021.

At 8:58 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 62 points, or 0.17%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 11.25 points, or 0.24%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 88.5 points, or 0.56%.

All the three major Wall Street indexes are set for a weekly fall.

Mega-cap tech titans Apple Inc, Microsoft Corp, Amazon.com Inc and Tesla Inc were mixed, after steep losses suffered this week.

“Meme stock” GameStop Corp  jumped 18.7% after the video game retailer said it is launching a division to develop a marketplace for nonfungible tokens (NFTs) and establish cryptocurrency partnerships.

Starbucks Corp fell 2.4% after RBC downgraded the specialty coffee retailer’s stock to “sector perform” from “outperform” on valuation and margin outlook.

Discovery Inc added 5.3% after Bank of America upgraded the media company’s stock to “buy” from “neutral”.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

US. Ci si aspetta un Indice dei Prezzi al Consumo, Pci, in duratura salita. – Financial Times.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-01-10.

2022-01-10__ US CPI 001

Mercoledì 12 gennaio lo U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics pubblicherà il valore del Pci, Indice dei Prezzi al Consumo: le attese sono che continui a salire, attestandosi attorno al +7.1%, anno su anno.

Se queste sono le previsioni immediate, quelle a medio termine sono fosche.

«a year of rampant inflation fuelled by supply chain logjams, labour shortages and strong spending»

«elevated consumer prices may be here to stay»

* * * * * * *

«The rise in US consumer prices is likely to have reached another four-decade high in December, capping a year of rampant inflation fuelled by supply chain logjams, labour shortages and strong spending»

«Economists polled by FactSet anticipate a 0.5 per cent month-to-month increase in the consumer price index when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its report on Wednesday»

«That would leave CPI inflation up 7.1 per cent year on year, which would represent the biggest annual increase since February 1982»

«In November, consumer prices were up 6.8 per cent on an annual basis»

«Minutes from the Fed’s most recent policy meeting noted that supply chain disruptions and labour shortages are likely to last longer than officials initially predicted, adding to signs that elevated consumer prices may be here to stay »

«With lower demand and greater supply, we should see price changes start to normalise in 2022»

«The UK’s economic recovery is expected to have accelerated in November»

«Supply-chain disruptions that held back manufacturing production in October “remained rife in November, easing only a tad”»

«Not only does demand appear to have been affected by mounting Omicron cases, but staff shortages are also disrupting production in certain areas»

«In the week before Christmas, futures contracts linked to Europe’s wholesale gas price, already at a record high, soared to more than €180 per megawatt hour as weak confidence in Russian supply got even weaker»

«Such was the strength of the rally that ships carrying liquefied natural gas originally destined for Asia changed course mid-voyage. In total, an estimated 7.3m tonnes of LNG was delivered to Europe in December»

«By January 4, European prices had stabilised at about €90 per megawatt hour, though still up about 350 per cent from the same time last year»

«The volatility is unlikely to be over soon»

«European storage levels, meanwhile, remain low, leaving the continent with little room to manoeuvre»

«In Asia, the outlook is less concerning, with large LNG inventories in place in several countries»

* * * * * * *

Gli Stati Uniti sono in stagflazione.

La Harris-Biden Administration è incapace a generare nuovi posti di lavoro così come è incapace di contenere il processo inflattivo.

La Fed? Ma la Fed esiste oppure no?

Sembrerebbe essere molto verosimile che il 2022 sia caratterizzato da tassi di inflazione in continua crescita.

* * * * * * *


Will US consumer price inflation hit another 40-year high? – Financial Times.

                         Will US consumer price inflation hit another 40-year high?

The rise in US consumer prices is likely to have reached another four-decade high in December, capping a year of rampant inflation fuelled by supply chain logjams, labour shortages and strong spending.

Economists polled by FactSet anticipate a 0.5 per cent month-to-month increase in the consumer price index when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its report on Wednesday. That would leave CPI inflation up 7.1 per cent year on year, which would represent the biggest annual increase since February 1982. In November, consumer prices were up 6.8 per cent on an annual basis and 0.8 per cent against the previous month.

Price increases accelerated for much of 2021, prompting officials at the Federal Reserve to ponder earlier and faster interest rate increases as the central bank unwinds the economic support it implemented at the beginning of the coronavirus crisis.

Minutes from the Fed’s most recent policy meeting noted that supply chain disruptions and labour shortages are likely to last longer than officials initially predicted, adding to signs that elevated consumer prices may be here to stay even if inflation cools off in 2022.

“Inflation looks close to peaking, as the collision of large demand driven by federal stimulus fades and supply chain problems moderate,” said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer for the Commonwealth Financial Network. “With lower demand and greater supply, we should see price changes start to normalise in 2022.”

Analysts at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute recently forecast that annual CPI inflation will average 5.3 per cent this year alongside two interest rate increases by the Fed. Matthew Rocco

                         Did monthly UK GDP growth pick up before Omicron took hold?

The UK’s economic recovery is expected to have accelerated in November before the spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant hit the country, possibly reaching pre-pandemic levels for the first time since the onset of the crisis.

Bethany Beckett, economist at Capital Economics and Ellie Henderson, economist at Investec, both expect the country’s gross domestic product to have expanded by 0.5 per cent between October and November, when data is released on Friday, marking gathering momentum from near stagnation in October.

Supply-chain disruptions that held back manufacturing production in October “remained rife in November, easing only a tad”, said Henderson. However, she thinks “there should have been some rebound in mining and quarrying and utilities”, and construction output “may have recovered partially after its October fall”.

With people returning to workplaces and city centres, and with Christmas shopping taking place earlier, output in the services sector is also expected to have accelerated to 0.5 per cent growth in November.

If such projections are confirmed, the monthly measure of UK GDP could have returned to levels not seen since February 2020.

But momentum looks poised to slow temporarily for December, as the spread of Omicron discouraged or interrupted certain areas of economic activity even without legal restrictions in place. With surging Covid infections, output may have shrunk about 0.8 per cent in December, according to Beckett.

“Not only does demand appear to have been affected by mounting Omicron cases, but staff shortages are also disrupting production in certain areas,” said Henderson. Valentina Romei

                         What next for European gas prices after December’s wild ride?

Even in a year in which a rebounding global economy and constrained supply drove an unprecedented rally in global gas prices, December stood out.

In the week before Christmas, futures contracts linked to Europe’s wholesale gas price, already at a record high, soared to more than €180 per megawatt hour as weak confidence in Russian supply got even weaker.

Such was the strength of the rally that ships carrying liquefied natural gas originally destined for Asia changed course mid-voyage. In total, an estimated 7.3m tonnes of LNG was delivered to Europe in December, according to consultancy Rystad Energy.

The imports, aided by warmer than expected weather forecasts, worked. By January 4, European prices had stabilised at about €90 per megawatt hour, though still up about 350 per cent from the same time last year.

The volatility is unlikely to be over soon. Rystad predicts that weak gas flows from Russia into western Europe will continue while the confrontation over Ukraine persists, leading to “continued elevated prices”.

European storage levels, meanwhile, remain low, leaving the continent with little room to manoeuvre as it watches the weather forecasts for any signs of colder temperatures.

In Asia, the outlook is less concerning, with large LNG inventories in place in several countries and current forecasts for temperatures at or above normal in the coming weeks.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

Joe Biden. Indice Rasmussen di approvazione -29. Midterm si avvicina.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-01-09.

2022-01-10__ Biden Rasmussen 001

«The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll …. shows that 41% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Biden’s job performance»

«Fifty-eight percent (58%) disapprove»

«The latest figures include 20% who Strongly Approve of the job Biden is doing and 49% who Strongly Disapprove»

«This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -29.»

* * * * * * *

Questo dato sembrerebbe essere un pessimo viatico in vista di midterm.

Qui riportiamo qualche esempio dei profondi motivi di repulsa verso Joe Biden.

G20. Prima giornata. Una altra disastrosa débâcle dei liberal. Contano quasi nulla.

Afganistan. Biden, lo zimbello del mondo. I media lo abbandonano irati. Terrorismo.

Cop26. O l’ovest paga oppure India resterà a lungo con il carbone. ~5 trilioni di Usd.

Questa nuova débâcle di Joe Biden segna la tappa epocale della perdita di controllo delle UN.

G20. Roma. Cina, Russia ed India non vogliono abbandonare il carbone.

Cina. Silura ed affonda con scherno COP26. Costruirà nuove centrali a carbone e petrolio.

Biden. Anche i democratici si stanno ribellando pensando a midterm. Trombati.

Usa. Nonfarm Payrolls 253,000. La débâcle economica di Joe Biden.

Cina. Biden travolto da critiche interne ed estere per la vergognosa débâcle in Afganistan.

Lituania. Blinken e Simonyte e le sanzione imposte dalla Cina. Lituania sulla brace.

China’s European Diplomacy

Asia alla conquista dell’Europa dell’Est.

Senato. Manchin (democratico) non voterà il ‘Build Back Better’ di Joe Biden.

Biden fa infuriare gli alleati orientali della NATO con l’avvicinamento alla Russia.

Afganistan. Biden, lo zimbello del mondo. I media lo abbandonano irati. Terrorismo.

Biden. Questa fuga dall’Afganistan fa crollare la credibilità degli Stati Uniti. Persino nei media.

Arabia Saudita. Biden ritira i missili Patriot, lasciandola indifesa. È inaffidabile.

Usa. Sept21. Census Bureau. Classi di Reddito e povertà.

Biden. Immettere due trilioni Usd bloccherà l’inflazione.  La gente sghignazza. – Bloomberg.

Usa. Midterm. Nei sondaggi i Repubblicani superano i Democratici per 13 punti.

Biden. Il re dei trasformisti. Ecco cosa diceva ed ecco cosa ha fatto

2021. Più omicidi nelle grandi città che nelle zone di guerra.

Dolci da banco e snacks. Il rialzo delle materie prime causa una Impennata dei prezzi.

Inflazione e mercato cinese. Due fenomeni destinati a perdurare. – Bloomberg.

Stati Uniti – IPP (Indice dei Prezzi di Produzione) (Annuale) +9.6%.