Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Stati Uniti

Usa. Richieste sussidi disoccupazione aumentati. Iniziali 351,000, continua 2,845.000.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-23.

2021-09-23__ Usa Sussidi 001

Gli Stati Uniti sono in stagflazione.

L’Indice dei prezzi alla Produzione, PPI, si è attestato all’8.3%, mentre l’Indice dei Prezzi al Consumo, CPI, vale il 5.3%.

Ma contro codesti dati di severa inflazione fa riscontro un microscopico valore del numero delle buste paga non agricole, Nonfarm Payrolls, che ha generato solo 235,000 nuovi posti di lavoro. La produzione è ferma.

Gli odierni macrodati sono semplicemente quelli che logica e buon senso avevano previsto: lo Initial Jobless Claims è salito a 351,000, mentre le richieste di sussidi di disoccupazione continua sono a loro volta salite a 2,845,000.

La débâcle economica e sociale della Harris-Biden Administration è adesso evidente ed è sotto gli occhi di tutti, e la situazione sta peggiorando di giorno in giorno tra l’inedia del governo e della Fed.

A questa drammatica situazione fa riscontro il fatto che l’industria abbia 10.9 milioni di posti vacanti.

Di fatto, gli attuali disoccupati non rispondono alle caratteristiche richieste, anche se molti preferiscono di gran lunga percepire i sussidi invece che lavorare. In ogni caso, è una situazione kafkiana.

Sinceramente, ci si stupisce che i media se ne stupiscano. Gran brutta malattia la ideologia.

* * * * * * *


U.S. weekly jobless claims unexpectedly rise; labor market gradually healing

Washington (Reuters) – The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly rose last week amid a surge in California, but the labor market continues to steadily recover.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 16,000 to a seasonally adjusted 351,000 for the week ended Sept. 18, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 320,000 applications for the latest week.

There was a 24,221 jump in unadjusted claims in California. That offset a sharp decrease in filings in Louisiana, which was devastated by Hurricane Ida in late August.

The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, fell 750 to 335,750 last week.

Claims have dropped from a record 6.149 million in early April 2020, but still remain above the 200,000-250,000 range viewed as consistent with healthy labor market conditions.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday struck upbeat note on the economy, paving the way to reduce its monthly bond purchases “soon” and signaling interest rate increases may follow more quickly than expected.

Last week’s claims data covered the period during which the government surveyed employers for the nonfarm payrolls portion of September’s employment report.

Job growth slowed in August, with payrolls posting their smallest gain in seven months amid a stalling in hiring in the high contact leisure and hospitality sector as infections driven by the Delta variant of the coronavirus surged.

Pandemic-related factors are causing worker shortages, which are constraining hiring. Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters he anticipated “more rapid gains in employment” as these factors, which include lack of affordable child care and fears contracting the virus, diminish.

There were a record 10.9 million job openings at the end of July. The Fed projected the unemployment rate at 4.8% this year. That was up from the 4.5% rate the U.S. central bank projected back in June. The jobless rate was at 5.2% in August.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

Mondo. Borse. Tutti iniziano ad avere paura, che è altamente contagiosa.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-21.

2021-09-21__ Borse 001

In estrema sintesi, ecco i problemi che tormentano i mercati.

– «The Fed is due to deliver its latest economic and interest rate policy update on Wednesday»

– «Fear is also mounting that Evergrande Group, …. With more than $300 billion in liabilities and only $15 billion in cash on hand, Evergrande is currently the world’s most indebted real estate developer»

– «a push by congressional Democrats to raise taxes on wealthy»

– «Investors remain concerned that the latest COVID-19 wave could slow economic growth»

* * *

Se la Cina portasse la Evergrande al fallimento, sarebbe il crollo di tutte le borse.

Sufficit.

* * * * * * *

«Benchmark U.S. stock indexes opened sharply lower on Monday as investors assessed a bevy of risks, including a possible shift in Federal Reserve guidance this week that could hurt corporate profits»

«The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 500 points, or 1.5%, shortly after the start of trade, while the broader S&P 500 fell 1.5% and technology-heavy Nasdaq sank 1.8%»

«Although September is historically a weak month for stocks, a range of factors is weighing on market sentiment»

«Investors remain concerned that the latest COVID-19 wave could slow economic growth»

«while also keeping a close eye a push by congressional Democrats to raise taxes on wealthy Americans and on big corporations»

«Fear is also mounting that Evergrande Group, a major Chinese property developer, could default on its debt and trigger a financial crisis»

«The company was expected to miss interest payments, as ratings companies forecast it may default on its debt»

«With more than $300 billion in liabilities and only $15 billion in cash on hand, Evergrande is currently the world’s most indebted real estate developer»

«Worries are mounting that starting next week it won’t be able to pay $84 billion of interest due (according to Bloomberg), along with potentially missing a principal payment on at least one of its loans»

«The Fed is due to deliver its latest economic and interest rate policy update on Wednesday, with some analysts expecting policymakers to signal their intent to start withdrawing some of the extraordinary stimulus measures they have maintained during the pandemic»

«The central bank has said higher costs for raw materials and consumer goods are still likely to be temporary as the economy recovers, but analysts worry that higher prices could stick around and dent companies’ bottom lines while also crimping spending»

«Worries are also mounting about the U.S. debt ceiling»

* * * * * * *


Dow drops more than 500 points amid Fed, Delta variant jitters.

Benchmark U.S. stock indexes opened sharply lower on Monday as investors assessed a bevy of risks, including a possible shift in Federal Reserve guidance this week that could hurt corporate profits. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 500 points, or 1.5%, shortly after the start of trade, while the broader S&P 500 fell 1.5% and technology-heavy Nasdaq sank 1.8%. The decline extends a slide for Wall Street this month, with the S&P 500 losing nearly 1% last week.

Although September is historically a weak month for stocks, a range of factors is weighing on market sentiment. Investors remain concerned that the latest COVID-19 wave could slow economic growth, while also keeping a close eye a push by congressional Democrats to raise taxes on wealthy Americans and on big corporations. Fear is also mounting that Evergrande Group, a major Chinese property developer, could default on its debt and trigger a financial crisis.

“The Delta variant outbreak and its impact on the recovery played right into the weak September seasonality trend,” Piper Sandler analysts said in a report. “The prospect for higher taxes, tapering and debt ceiling uncertainty, along with the potential for systemic risk from China’s Evergrande crisis also contributed to the sour sentiment.”

Heavyweight Hong Kong property companies and banks lost ground on persisting concerns over the potential for ripple effects from the financial troubles of Evergrande. The company was expected to miss interest payments, as ratings companies forecast it may default on its debt. Its shares fell 10.6% on Monday.

“With more than $300 billion in liabilities and only $15 billion in cash on hand, Evergrande is currently the world’s most indebted real estate developer,” Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for LPL Financial, told investors in a note. “Worries are mounting that starting next week it won’t be able to pay $84 billion of interest due (according to Bloomberg), along with potentially missing a principal payment on at least one of its loans.”

                         Fed policy update

The Fed is due to deliver its latest economic and interest rate policy update on Wednesday, with some analysts expecting policymakers to signal their intent to start withdrawing some of the extraordinary stimulus measures they have maintained during the pandemic. 

The central bank has said higher costs for raw materials and consumer goods are still likely to be temporary as the economy recovers, but analysts worry that higher prices could stick around and dent companies’ bottom lines while also crimping spending.

Worries are also mounting about the U.S. debt ceiling. House Democrats said Friday they planned to move this week to suspend the cap on the government’s borrowing authority, and the White House ratcheted up pressure on Republicans by warning state and local governments that severe cuts lie ahead if the measure fails in the Senate.

Pubblicato in: Armamenti, Cina, Regno Unito, Stati Uniti

Aukus. Gli (ex) alleati in rivolta. Ma Australia e Regno Unito si fidano di Biden.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-20.

2021-09-19__ Sottomarini atomici 001

Con il trattato Aukus Regno Unito e Stati Uniti doteranno l’Australia di sei sottomarini atomici.

L’annuncio è stato dato senza nessuna preventiva consultazione con quelli che fino a ieri erano stati considerati essere degli alleati, che hanno reagito inveleniti di essere stati scaricati come stracci vecchi.

Ma il fatto davvero stupefacente è che sia il Regno Unito sia l’Australia si fidino della parola data dagli Stati Uniti. Della parola data da Joe Biden,

Ma come adesso gli Stati Uniti hanno escluso gli ex alleati financo da una consultazione, sembrerebbe verosimile che un domani si comportino in egual modo con Regno Unito e con l’Australia.

Nessuno può dimenticare la débâcle di Joe Biden in Afghanistan e quello che ne è seguito.

Nota.

Usualmente un sottomarino nucleare porta sedici missili balistici, ciascuno dei quali è armato con dieci testate atomiche indipendenti: teoricamente potrebbe distruggere centosessanta obiettivi nemici. Si dia per scontato che la metà sia bloccata in quota dalla difesa aerea avversaria, restano pur sempre settantacinque testate messe a segno.

* * * * * * *

«The US and UK are facing growing international criticism over a new security pact signed with Australia»

«The deal – seen as an effort to counter China – will see the US and UK give Australia the technology to build nuclear-powered submarines»

«But the move angered France, which said it had been “stabbed in the back”, while China accused the three powers of having a “Cold War mentality”»

«And the pact has raised fears that it could provoke China into a war»

«The alliance, known as Aukus, was announced by US President Joe Biden, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Australian counterpart Scott Morrison on Wednesday»

«Mr Johnson later told MPs that the agreement was “not intended to be adversarial” to China»

«the deal could lead to Britain being dragged into war with China»

«Meanwhile Washington has sought to quell anger in Paris at the pact, which has scuppered a multibillion-dollar submarine deal France had signed with Australia»

«France’s Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian called the announcement a “stab in the back”. He called it a “brutal, unilateral and unpredictable decision”»

«The US knew that this contract and this strategic contract were essential French national interests, and the US didn’t care»

«The pact, which will also see the allies share cyber capabilities, artificial intelligence and other undersea technologies, was described as showing “profound strategic shifts”»

«China, meanwhile, has accused the allies of having a “Cold War mentality” that would hurt their own interests»

«The Chinese state-run Global Times warned of an arms race for nuclear submarines, adding that Australian soldiers were likely to be the “first to die” in a Chinese “counterattack”»

* * * * * * *

Ma adesso, come poi se ce ne fosse stato bisogno, nessuno ‘alleato’ degli Stati Uniti si potrà sentire tutelato.

Arabia Saudita. Biden ritira i missili Patriot, lasciandola indifesa. È inaffidabile.

E l’Arabia Saudita è solo l’ultima della lista ad essere stata pugnalata alle spalle.

*


Aukus: US and UK face backlash over Australia defence deal

The US and UK are facing growing international criticism over a new security pact signed with Australia.

The deal – seen as an effort to counter China – will see the US and UK give Australia the technology to build nuclear-powered submarines.

But the move angered France, which said it had been “stabbed in the back”, while China accused the three powers of having a “Cold War mentality”.

And the pact has raised fears that it could provoke China into a war.

The alliance, known as Aukus, was announced by US President Joe Biden, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Australian counterpart Scott Morrison on Wednesday.

While they did not mention China, Aukus is being widely viewed as an effort to counter Beijing’s influence in the contested South China Sea.

Mr Johnson later told MPs that the agreement was “not intended to be adversarial” to China.

But the prime minister was questioned by his predecessor, Theresa May, about whether the deal could lead to Britain being dragged into war with China.

She asked the prime minister about the “implications” of the partnership in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

Mr Johnson replied: “The United Kingdom remains determined to defend international law and that is the strong advice we would give to our friends across the world, and the strong advice that we would give to the government in Beijing.”

Democratic Taiwan sees itself as a sovereign state, but Beijing has increased pressure on the island which it views as a breakaway province.

                         ‘A very low moment’

Meanwhile Washington has sought to quell anger in Paris at the pact, which has scuppered a multibillion-dollar submarine deal France had signed with Australia.

France’s Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian called the announcement a “stab in the back”.

He called it a “brutal, unilateral and unpredictable decision” that reminded him of former US President Donald Trump.

French diplomats in Washington cancelled a gala to celebrate ties between the US and France in retaliation.

“It’s a very low moment,” France’s former ambassador to the US, Gérard Araud, told the BBC’s World Tonight programme. “The US knew that this contract and this strategic contract were essential French national interests, and the US didn’t care.”

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called France “a vital partner” and said Washington would still work “incredibly closely” with Paris.

White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki shrugged off the French criticisms.

“There are a range of partnerships that include the French and some partnerships that don’t, and they have partnerships with other countries that don’t include us,” she said. “That is part of how global diplomacy works.”

                         ‘Profound strategic shift’

The pact, which will also see the allies share cyber capabilities, artificial intelligence and other undersea technologies, was described as showing “profound strategic shifts” by the UK’s national security adviser Stephen Lovegrove.

It means Australia will become just the seventh nation in the world to operate nuclear-powered submarines.

Mr Lovegrove said the pact was “perhaps the most significant capability collaboration in the world anywhere in the past six decades”.

China, meanwhile, has accused the allies of having a “Cold War mentality” that would hurt their own interests.

The Chinese state-run Global Times warned of an arms race for nuclear submarines, adding that Australian soldiers were likely to be the “first to die” in a Chinese “counterattack”.

And on Friday, China’s President Xi Jinping said foreign powers should not be allowed to interfere in the country’s affairs.

“The future of our country’s development and progress should lie firmly in our own hands,” he said, according to state media.

But Australia’s defence minister, Peter Dutton, brushed aside Beijing’s reaction.

The year when Australia and China hit ‘lowest ebb’

“This is not the first time that we’ve seen different outbursts from China in terms of Australia’s position,” he said.

“We are a proud democracy in our region. We stand with our neighbours in the Indo-Pacific to ensure enduring peace, and this collaboration makes it a safer region. That’s the reality and no amount of propaganda can dismiss the facts.”

Meanwhile, China applied to join a key Asia-Pacific trade pact on Thursday as it attempts to strengthen its position in the region.

The country’s foreign ministry, however, denied that the move to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) was a response to the UK-US-Australia pact.

Joining the CPTPP, which was signed in 2018 by 11 countries including Australia and Japan, would mark a significant boost to China’s trading power.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Stati Uniti

Buffett Indicator 239%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-20.

2021-09-20__ Buffett Indicator 001

The Buffett Indicator is the ratio of total US stock market valuation to GDP. Named after Warren Buffett, who called the ratio “the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment”. (Buffett has since walked back those comments, hesitating to endorse any single measure as either comprehensive or consistent over time, but this ratio remains credited to his name). To calculate the ratio, we need to get data for both metrics: Total Market Value and GDP.

2021-09-20__ Buffett Indicator 002

                         Total Market Value

The most common measurement of the aggregate value of the US stock market is the Wilshire 5000. This is available directly from Wilshire (links to all data sources below), with monthly data starting in 1971, and daily measures beginning in 1980. The Wilshire index was created such that a 1-point increase in the index corresponds to a $1 billion increase in US market cap. Per Wilshire, that 1:1 ratio has drifted, and as of Dec 2013 a 1-point increase in the index corresponded to a $1.15 billion dollar increase. We adjust the data back to inception (and projected going forward) on a straight-line basis to compensate for this drift. For example, the Sep 2020 Wilshire Index of 35,807 corresponds to a total real market cap value of $42.27T USD.

For data prior to 1970 (where Wilshire data is not available) we use the Z.1 Financial Account – Nonfinancial corporate business; corporate equities; liability, Level, published by the Federal Reserve, which provides a quarterly estimate of total market value back to 1945. In order to integrate the datasets, we index the Z.1 data to match up to the 1970 Wilshire starting point.

Combined, these data make our Composite US Stock Market Value data series, shown below. Our current estimate of composite US stock market value is $54.9T.

                         GDP

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) represents the total production of the US economy. This is measured quarterly by the US Government’s Bureau of Economic Analysis. The GDP is a static measurement of prior economic activity – it does not forecast the future or include any expectation or valuation of future economic activity or economic growth. The GDP is calculated and published quarterly, several months in arrears, such that by the time the data is published it is several months old. In order to provide updated data for the most recent quarter we use the most recent GDPNow estimate published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Based on this, our current estimate of (annualized) GDP is $22.9T. A historical chart of GDP is shown below.

                         The Ratio of the Two

Given that the stock market value represents expectations of future economic activity, and the GDP is a measure of most recent actual economic activity, the ratio of these two data series represents expected future returns relative to current performance. This is similar in nature to how we think about the PE ratio of a particular stock. It stands to reason that this ratio would remain relatively stable over time, and increase slowly as technology allows for the same labor and capital to be used ever more efficiently.

Pubblicato in: Armamenti, Diplomazia, Regno Unito, Stati Uniti

USA, Gran Britannia ed Australia. Accordo per dotarla di sottomarini atomici. Ira di Europa e Cina.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-17.

Biden 001

Usando il consueto tatto diplomatico, Stati Uniti, Gran Bretagna ed Australia hanno sottoscritto un trattato per dotare questa ultima di sottomarini atomici. Verosimilmente, clausole riservate consentiranno l’imbarco di missili dotati di testate atomiche multiple americane.

Questo è un notevole salto qualitativo.

Se è vero che i sottomarini atomici siano un ottimo deterrente, sarebbe altrettanto vero ricordare come siano armi offensive.

La reazione cinese è stata immediata e severissima.

Ma la Francia, che vede svanire una commessa miliardaria, sta grondando rabbia impotente da tutti i pori. Macron è una irrilevante nullità.

Similmente, l’Unione Europea è furibonda di non essere nemmeno stata avvisata: hanno saputo il fatto dai giornali.

Questo è il suggello del continuo sgretolamento dell’Unione, il cui peso politico, economico e militare è oramai nullo.

* * * * * * *

«China, France denounce U.S. nuclear sub pact with Britain, Australia»

«U.S. and allies look for ways to push back against China»

«Security alliance ‘severely’ damages regional peace»

«France accuses Biden of acting like Trump with ‘brutal’ decision»

* * *

«France, which loses its own submarine deal with Australia, called the plans brutal and unpredictable»

«The partnership ends Australia’s 2016 deal with French shipbuilder Naval Group to build it a new submarine fleet worth $40 billion to replace its more than two-decades-old Collins submarines»

«China on Thursday denounced a new Indo-Pacific security alliance between the United States, Britain and Australia, saying such partnerships should not target third countries and warning of an intensified arms race in the region»

«Under the arrangement, dubbed AUKUS, the United States and Britain will provide Australia with the technology and capability to deploy nuclear-powered submarines»

«I am angry and bitter. This isn’t done between allies»

«One U.S. official said the partnership was the result of months of engagements by military and political leaders during which Britain – which recently sent an aircraft carrier to Asia – had indicated it wanted to do more in the region»

«U.S. officials said nuclear propulsion would allow the Australian navy to operate more quietly, for longer periods, and provide deterrence across the Indo-Pacific»

«→→ EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said the new partnership, on which the EU was not consulted, showed the need for a more assertive European foreign policy ←←»

«”We must survive on our own, as others do,” Borrell said as he presented a new EU strategy for the Indo-Pacific region. “I understand the extent to which the French government must be disappointed.”»

* * * * * * *

Questa è la realtà dei fatti.

L’Unione Europea e la Francia di Macron contano meno dello zero. Nemmeno avvisati.

*


China, France denounce U.S. nuclear sub pact with Britain, Australia.

– U.S. and allies look for ways to push back against China

– Security alliance ‘severely’ damages regional peace, China says

– France accuses Biden of acting like Trump with ‘brutal’ decision

*

Washington/Canberra, Sept 16 (Reuters) – China on Thursday denounced a new Indo-Pacific security alliance between the United States, Britain and Australia, saying such partnerships should not target third countries and warning of an intensified arms race in the region.

Under the arrangement, dubbed AUKUS, the United States and Britain will provide Australia with the technology and capability to deploy nuclear-powered submarines.

France, which loses its own submarine deal with Australia, called the plans brutal and unpredictable.

The United States and its allies are looking for ways to push back against China’s growing power and influence, particularly its military buildup, pressure on Taiwan and deployments in the contested South China Sea.

U.S. President Joe Biden, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison did not mention China by name in the joint announcement and senior Biden administration officials, who briefed reporters ahead of time, said the partnership was not aimed at countering Beijing.

But Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said the three countries were “severely damaging regional peace and stability, intensifying an arms race, and damaging international nuclear non-proliferation efforts”.

“China always believes that any regional mechanism should conform to the trend of peace and development of the times and help enhance mutual trust and cooperation… It should not target any third party or undermine its interests,” he told a regular briefing in Beijing.

Johnson said the pact was not meant to be adversarial and said it would reduce the costs of Britain’s next generation of nuclear submarines.

“Now that we have created AUKUS we expect to accelerate the development of other advanced defence systems including in cyber, artificial intelligence, quantum computing and undersea capabilities,” Johnson told parliament.

The partnership ends Australia’s 2016 deal with French shipbuilder Naval Group to build it a new submarine fleet worth $40 billion to replace its more than two-decades-old Collins submarines, a spokesperson for Morrison told Reuters.

France accused Biden of stabbing it in the back and acting like his predecessor Donald Trump.

“This brutal, unilateral and unpredictable decision reminds me a lot of what Mr Trump used to do,” Le Drian told franceinfo radio. “I am angry and bitter. This isn’t done between allies.”

The three leaders stressed Australia would not be fielding nuclear weapons but using nuclear propulsion systems for the vessels to guard against threats.

“We all recognise the imperative of ensuring peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific over the long term,” Biden said.

“We need to be able to address both the current strategic environment in the region, and how it may evolve because the future of each of our nations and indeed the world depends on a free and open Indo-Pacific enduring and flourishing in the decades ahead,” he said.

Morrison said Australia would meet all its nuclear non-proliferation obligations.

‘STRONG ROLE’

One U.S. official said the partnership was the result of months of engagements by military and political leaders during which Britain – which recently sent an aircraft carrier to Asia – had indicated it wanted to do more in the region. 

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern welcomed the focus on the Indo-Pacific but said Australia’s nuclear-powered submarines would not be allowed in its territorial waters.

Singapore said it had long had relations with Australia, Britain and the United States and hoped their grouping would contribute to peace and stability.

Japan said the three countries’ strengthening of security and defence cooperation was important for peace and security.

A U.S. official briefing before the announcement said Biden had not mentioned the plans “in any specific terms” to Chinese leader Xi Jinping in a call last Thursday, but did “underscore our determination to play a strong role in the Indo-Pacific”.

U.S. officials said nuclear propulsion would allow the Australian navy to operate more quietly, for longer periods, and provide deterrence across the Indo-Pacific.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said the new partnership, on which the EU was not consulted, showed the need for a more assertive European foreign policy.

“We must survive on our own, as others do,” Borrell said as he presented a new EU strategy for the Indo-Pacific region. “I understand the extent to which the French government must be disappointed.”

Biden said the three governments would launch an 18-month consultation period “to determine every element of this programme, from workforce, to training requirements, to production timelines” and to ensure full compliance with non-proliferation commitments.

Among the U.S. firms that could benefit are General Dynamics Corp (GD.N) and Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc (HII.N).

General Dynamics’ Electric Boat business does much of the design work for U.S. submarines, but critical subsystems such as electronics and nuclear power plants are made by BWX Technologies Inc (BWXT.N)

U.S. officials did not give a time frame for when Australia would deploy a nuclear-powered submarine, or how many would be built.

A U.S. official said Washington had shared nuclear propulsion technology only once before – with Britain in 1958.

“This is frankly an exception to our policy in many respects… We view this as a one-off.”

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

Usa. Agosto21. CPI, Consumer Price Index, 5.3%. Indice energetici +25%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-15.

2021-09-15__ Consumer Price Index, selected categories 002

«The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)  …. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 5.3 percent before seasonal adjustment»

«The largest increase was the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs, which increased 8.0 percent as the index for beef rose 12.2 percent over the year»

«The energy index rose 25.0 percent over the past 12 months»

«The gasoline index rose 42.7 percent over the last year»

«The index for natural gas rose 21.1 percent over the last 12 months»

«The index for used cars and trucks increased 31.9 percent over the span»

«The index for new vehicles rose 7.6 percent»

2021-09-15__ Consumer Price Index, selected categories 001

* * * * * * *

Questi sono i macrodati.

Un elemento balza subito alla attenzione.

Gran quota degli aumenti del Cpi sono da ascriversi al costo degli energetici, saliti del 25%. È una inflazione importata dovuta ai sostenuti rincari delle materie prime, sulla quale né il Governo né la Fed hanno una qualche possibilità di azione.

Per questo motivo, apparirebbe essere verosimile che il processo inflattivo prosegua nel tempo, più o meno su questi livelli. Nei fatti, la Harris-Biden Administration e la Fed la devono subire, essendo disarmate contro di esso.

L’unica possibile manovra sarebbe quella di detassare gli energetici, che sono gravati da consistenti tasse ecologiche. Sarebbe poco, ma il poco si conta.

* * * * * * *


Lo U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics ha rilasciato il Report Consumer Price Index.

«The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Indexes are available for the U.S. and various geographic areas. Average price data for select utility, automotive fuel, and food items are also available.»

«Notices

Starting in January 2022, weights for the Consumer Price Index will be calculated based on consumer expenditure data from 2019-2020. The BLS considered interventions, but decided to maintain normal procedures.»

* * * * * * *

Consumer Price Index. – August 2021.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.5 percent in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 5.3 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The indexes for gasoline, household furnishings and operations, food, and shelter all rose in August and contributed to the monthly all items seasonally adjusted increase. The energy index increased 2.0 percent, mainly due to a 2.8-percent increase in the gasoline index. The index for food rose 0.4 percent, with the indexes for food at home and food away from home both increasing 0.4 percent.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in August, its smallest increase since February 2021. Along with the indexes for household operations and shelter, the indexes for new vehicles, recreation, and medical care also rose in August. The indexes for airline fares, used cars and trucks, and motor vehicle insurance all declined over the month. 

The all items index rose 5.3 percent for the 12 months ending August, a smaller increase than the 5.4-percent rise for the period ending July. The index for all items less food and energy rose 4.0 percent over the last 12 months, also a smaller increase than the period ending July. The energy index rose 25.0 percent over the last 12 months, and the food index increased 3.7 percent; both were larger than the increases for the 12-month period ending July.

                         Food.

The food index increased 0.4 percent in August after larger increases in recent months. The food at home index increased 0.4 percent over the month as four of the six major grocery store food group indexes rose. The index for nonalcoholic beverages increased 1.0 percent in August, its third consecutive monthly increase.

The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs rose 0.7 percent over the month as the beef index rose 1.7 percent. The index for other food at home rose 0.6 percent in August after increasing 0.8 percent in July. The index for fruits and vegetables rose 0.2 percent in August after declining in July.

The index for dairy and related products declined in August, falling 1.0 percent after rising in each of the previous 4 months. The index for cereals and bakery products was unchanged in August after increasing 1.2 percent in July.

The food away from home index rose 0.4 percent in August after increasing 0.8 percent in July. The index for limited service meals rose 0.8 percent in August, and the index for full service meals increased 0.6 percent. These increases offset a sharp decline in the index for food at employee sites and schools, which fell 17.0 percent in August.

The food at home index rose 3.0 percent over the past 12 months. Five of the six major grocery store food group indexes increased over the period. The largest increase was the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs, which increased 8.0 percent as the index for beef rose 12.2 percent over the year. The only group to decline was dairy and related products, which fell 0.5 percent over the last 12 months. The index for food away from home rose 4.7 percent over the last year. The index for limited service meals rose 6.9 percent over the last 12 months, and the index for full service meals rose 4.9 percent, while the index for food at employee sites and schools declined sharply. 

                         Energy.

The energy index rose 2.0 percent in August, its third consecutive monthly increase. The gasoline index rose 2.8 percent in August after increasing 2.4 percent in July. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices rose 0.7 percent in August.) The electricity index increased 1.0 percent in August following a 0.4-percent increase the prior month. The index for natural gas also increased in August, rising 1.6 percent; this was its seventh consecutive monthly increase. 

The energy index rose 25.0 percent over the past 12 months as all the major energy component indexes increased. The gasoline index rose 42.7 percent over the last year. The index for electricity increased 5.2 percent, its largest 12-month increase since the period ending March 2014. The index for natural gas rose 21.1 percent over the last 12 months, the largest increase since the period ending August 2008.

                         All items less food and energy.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in August. Indexes that increased over the month include the index for household furnishings and operations, which increased 1.3 percent as the indexes for furniture and bedding and for appliances rose. The shelter index increased in August, rising 0.2 percent. The indexes for rent and owners’ equivalent rent both rose 0.3 percent over the month, while the index for lodging away from home declined 2.9 percent.

The index for new vehicles continued to rise in August, increasing 1.2 percent after rising 1.7 percent in July. The recreation index rose 0.5 percent in August after increasing 0.6 percent the prior month. The index for medical care rose 0.2 percent over the month; its component indexes were mixed. The hospital services index rose 0.9 percent over the month, while the physicians’ services index was unchanged and the prescription drugs index declined 0.4 percent. The indexes for personal care, for communication, and for apparel all increased in August.

In contrast to these increases, several indexes declined in August. The index for airline fares fell sharply, decreasing 9.1 percent over the month. The index for used cars and trucks declined 1.5 percent in August, ending a series of five consecutive monthly increases. The index for motor vehicle insurance fell 2.8 percent in August, the same decline as in July.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 4.0 percent over the past 12 months. The index for used cars and trucks increased 31.9 percent over the span. The index for new vehicles rose 7.6 percent, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending June 1981. The shelter index increased 2.8 percent over the last 12 months, and the medical care index rose 0.4 percent. The index for physicians’ services rose 3.9 percent and the index for hospital services increased 3.5 percent. The prescription drugs index fell 2.7 percent, one of the few indexes to show a 12-month decline.

                         Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 5.3 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 273.567 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.2 percent prior to seasonal adjustment. 

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 5.8 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 268.387 (1982-84=100).

For the month, the index rose 0.2 percent prior to seasonal adjustment. 

The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased 5.1 percent over the last 12 months. For the month, the index increased 0.2 percent on a not seasonally adjusted basis. Please note that the indexes for the past 10 to 12 months are subject to revision.

* * * * * * *


Inflation Eased in August, Though Still High. (WSJ)

Consumer-price index rose 5.3% from a year before as supplies and labor continued to drive up prices.

«Inflation cooled slightly in August but remained strong, as a surge in Covid-19 infections slowed economic growth and pandemic-related shortages of labor and supplies continued to drive up prices.

The Labor Department said last month’s consumer-price index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in August from July, slower than the 0.5% one-month increase in July, and down markedly from June’s 0.9% pace. Prices eased for autos, with used vehicle prices dropping sharply, and hotel rates and airline fares declined in August from July.»

*


Surge in U.S. consumer prices slows in August, CPI shows. Has inflation peaked?

The numbers: The cost of living rose in August at the slowest pace in seven months and signaled a big surge in inflation this year may have peaked, but Americans probably aren’t going to get much relief from higher prices anytime soon.

The consumer price index climbed 0.3% last month, the government said Tuesday. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had estimated a 0.4% increase.

The rate of inflation over the past year, meanwhile, slipped to 5.3% in August from 5.5% in July, the first slowdown since last October.

Aside from a brief oil-driven spike in 2008, consumer prices have risen this year at the fastest pace in three decades. Consumers are paying more for food, gas, new and used cars and other goods and services.

Another closely watched measure of inflation that omits volatile food and energy rose an even smaller 0.1% in August, compared to a rise of 0.3% in July. That’s the smallest increase since February.

This so-called core rate is closely followed by economists as a more accurate measure of underlying inflation.

The 12-month increase in the core rate fell for the second month in a row to 4% in August, compared to a rise of 4.3% in July, after hitting a 30-year high in June.

Big picture: The big wave in inflation this year is all but certain to crest soon, and perhaps it’s already started. The big debate on Wall Street and in Washington is how much price pressures recede and how long it takes.

The Federal Reserve is sticking to its prediction that the rate of inflation will fall toward its 2% target some time in the next year. Fed officials believe labor and material shortages spawned by the pandemic will fade and ease the upward pressure on prices.

Fed critics contend some inflation is getting ingrained in the economy. They worry inflation will remain well above 2% through next year and potentially pose a threat to the U.S. recovery.

Key details: The cost of food — at groceries and restaurants — rose sharply again in August.

Prices also increased for gasoline, new autos, home furnishings and rent.

Prices fell for airfare, hotels, car insurance and used vehicles.

Fewer people bought airline tickets, perhaps because of kids returning to school and the spread of delta. The cost of flying sank 9.1% and was largely responsible for inflation in August coming in below Wall Street expectations.

The decline in used-car prices was the first in six months. Priced are still up 32% over the past year, but that’s down from a recent peak of 45%.

Both new and used cars are in short supply because of lingering disruptions from the pandemic.

What they are saying? “The hot inflation streak cooled considerably in August, especially with used car prices taking a big drop after inflating CPI for months,” said corporate economist Robert Frick of Navy Federal Credit Union.

“Monthly price increases may be cooling, but the annual rate of inflation remains red hot for now,” said economist Andrew Grantham of CIBC Economics.

Pubblicato in: Armamenti, Medio Oriente, Stati Uniti

Arabia Saudita. Biden ritira i missili Patriot, lasciandola indifesa. È inaffidabile.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-14.

2021-09-14__ Arabia Saudita 001

«U.S. has removed its most advanced missile defense system and Patriot batteries from Saudi Arabia»

«America’s Gulf Arab allies nervously watched the chaotic withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan»

Chi mai si fiderà più di Joe Biden?

Usa. Nonfarm Payrolls 253,000. La débâcle economica di Joe Biden.

Usa. Corte Suprema rifiuta di bloccare la legge del Texas che limita l’aborto.

Cina. Biden travolto da critiche interne ed estere per la vergognosa débâcle in Afganistan.

Usa. Biden. La Cnn accusa l’Amministrazione delle femmine di mancanza di ‘competenza’.

Usa. The New York Times accusa Biden di aver detto detto cose false

Afganistan. Biden, lo zimbello del mondo. I media lo abbandonano irati. Terrorismo.

Afganistan. La débâcle americana è peggio del Vietnam. È devoluzione dell’America.

Biden. Questa fuga dall’Afganistan fa crollare la credibilità degli Stati Uniti. Persino nei media.

* * * * * * *

«The U.S. has removed its most advanced missile defense system and Patriot batteries from Saudi Arabia in recent weeks, even as the kingdom faced continued air attacks from Yemen’s Houthi rebels, satellite photos analyzed by The Associated Press show»

«The redeployment of the defenses from Prince Sultan Air Base outside of Riyadh came as America’s Gulf Arab allies nervously watched the chaotic withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan»

«Gulf Arab nations worry about the U.S.’s future plans as its military perceives a growing threat in Asia that requires those missile defenses»

«And the perception is very clear that the U.S. is not as committed to the Gulf as it used to be in the views of many people in decision-making authority in the region»

«Prince Sultan Air Base, some 115 kilometers (70 miles) southeast of Riyadh, has hosted several thousand U.S. troops since a 2019 missile-and-drone attack on the heart of the kingdom’s oil production»

«Just southwest of the air base’s runway, a 1-square-kilometer (third-of-a-square-mile) area set off by an earthen berm saw American forces station Patriot missile batteries, as well as one advanced Terminal High Altitude Area Defense unit»

«even while acknowledging the withdrawal of the American missile defense systems»

«I think we need to be reassured about American commitment …. That looks like, for example, not withdrawing Patriot missiles from Saudi Arabia at a time when Saudi Arabia is the victim of missile attacks and drone attacks»

«Saudi Arabia maintains its own Patriot missile batteries and typically fires two missiles at an incoming target. That’s become an expensive proposition amid the Houthi campaign, as each Patriot missile costs more than $3 million»

«While Greece agreed in April to lend a Patriot missile battery to Saudi Arabia, the timing of the U.S. withdrawals comes amid wider uncertainty over the American posture in the region»

«that came as quite a disappointment to partners and allies around the world»

* * * * * * *

Questi fatti sono sotto gli occhi di tutti. Ne enucleiamo alcuni di maggiore interesse, che esponiamo per punti.

– La resa incondizionata ai Talibani e la caotica fuga dall’Afghanistan hanno evidenziato quanto Joe Biden e la sua amministrazione siano inaffidabili. “Il modo ancor mi offende”.

– Tutti gli alleati degli Stati Uniti si aspettano solo di essere traditi a loro volta.

– Il ritiro dei missili Patriot dall’Arabia Saudita, lasciandola sguarnita proprio mentre è sotto attacco, è solo l’ultimo esempio: che tutti gli altri ne prendano atto.

– Gli Stati Uniti hanno costruito un numero troppo limitato sia di missili Patriot, sia di missili Terminal High Altitude Area Defense.

Essere bollati di essere incompetenti ed inaffidabili è il peggior sfregio che Joe Biden ha inferto alla America.

*


US pulls missile defenses in Saudi Arabia amid Yemen attacks.

Satellite photos analyzed by The Associated Press show the U.S. has removed its most advanced missile defense system and Patriot batteries from Saudi Arabia in recent weeks.

*

Dubai, United Arab Emirates — The U.S. has removed its most advanced missile defense system and Patriot batteries from Saudi Arabia in recent weeks, even as the kingdom faced continued air attacks from Yemen’s Houthi rebels, satellite photos analyzed by The Associated Press show.

The redeployment of the defenses from Prince Sultan Air Base outside of Riyadh came as America’s Gulf Arab allies nervously watched the chaotic withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, including their last-minute evacuations from Kabul’s besieged international airport.

While tens of thousands of American forces remain across the Arabian Peninsula as a counterweight to Iran, Gulf Arab nations worry about the U.S.’s future plans as its military perceives a growing threat in Asia that requires those missile defenses. Tensions remain high as negotiations appear stalled in Vienna over Iran’s collapsed nuclear deal with world powers, raising the danger of future confrontations in the region.

“Perceptions matter whether or not they’re rooted in a cold, cold reality. And the perception is very clear that the U.S. is not as committed to the Gulf as it used to be in the views of many people in decision-making authority in the region,” said Kristian Ulrichsen, a research fellow at the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice University.

“From the Saudi point of view, they now see Obama, Trump and Biden — three successive presidents — taking decisions that signify to some extent an abandonment.”

Prince Sultan Air Base, some 115 kilometers (70 miles) southeast of Riyadh, has hosted several thousand U.S. troops since a 2019 missile-and-drone attack on the heart of the kingdom’s oil production. That attack, though claimed by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, appears instead to have been carried out by Iran, according to experts and physical debris left behind. Tehran has denied launching the attack, though a drill in January saw Iranian paramilitary forces use similar drones.

Just southwest of the air base’s runway, a 1-square-kilometer (third-of-a-square-mile) area set off by an earthen berm saw American forces station Patriot missile batteries, as well as one advanced Terminal High Altitude Area Defense unit, according to satellite images from Planet Labs Inc. A THAAD can destroy ballistic missiles at a higher altitude than Patriots.

A satellite image seen by the AP in late August showed some of the batteries removed from the area, though activity and vehicles still could be seen there. A high-resolution Planet Lab satellite picture taken Friday showed the batteries’ pads at the site empty, with no visible activity.

A redeployment of the missiles had been rumored for months, in part due to a desire to face what American officials see as the looming “great powers conflict” with China and Russia. However, the withdrawal came just as a Houthi drone attack on Saudi Arabia wounded eight people and damaged a commercial jetliner at the kingdom’s airport in Abha. The kingdom has been locked in a stalemate war with the Houthis since March 2015.

Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby acknowledged “the redeployment of certain air defense assets” after receiving questions from the AP. He said the U.S. maintained a “broad and deep” commitment to its Mideast allies.

“The Defense Department continues to maintain tens of thousands of forces and a robust force posture in the Middle East representing some of our most advanced air power and maritime capabilities, in support of U.S. national interests and our regional partnerships,” Kirby said.

In a statement to the AP, the Saudi Defense Ministry described the kingdom’s relationship with the U.S. as “strong, longstanding and historic” even while acknowledging the withdrawal of the American missile defense systems. It said the Saudi military “is capable of defending its lands, seas and airspace, and protecting its people.”

“The redeployment of some defense capabilities of the friendly United States of America from the region is carried out through common understanding and realignment of defense strategies as an attribute of operational deployment and disposition,” the statement said.

Despite those assurances, Saudi Prince Turki al-Faisal, the kingdom’s former intelligence chief whose public remarks often track with the thoughts of its Al Saud ruling family, has linked the Patriot missile deployments directly to America’s relationship to Riyadh.

“I think we need to be reassured about American commitment,” the prince told CNBC in an interview aired this week. “That looks like, for example, not withdrawing Patriot missiles from Saudi Arabia at a time when Saudi Arabia is the victim of missile attacks and drone attacks — not just from Yemen, but from Iran.”

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, on a tour of the Mideast in recent days, had been slated to go to Saudi Arabia but the trip was canceled due to what American officials referred to as scheduling problems. Saudi Arabia declined to discuss why Austin’s trip didn’t happen after the withdrawal of the missile defenses.

Saudi Arabia maintains its own Patriot missile batteries and typically fires two missiles at an incoming target. That’s become an expensive proposition amid the Houthi campaign, as each Patriot missile costs more than $3 million. The kingdom also claims to intercept nearly every missile and drone launched at the kingdom, an incredibly high success rate previously questioned by experts.

While Greece agreed in April to lend a Patriot missile battery to Saudi Arabia, the timing of the U.S. withdrawals comes amid wider uncertainty over the American posture in the region. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Arab countries have renewed diplomacy with Iran as a hedge.

“I think we saw in Biden’s statements on Afghanistan, the way he said things that he’s clearly going to put U.S. interests first and obviously that came as quite a disappointment to partners and allies around the world who maybe hoped for something different after Trump,” said Ulrichsen, the research fellow. “He sounds quite similar to an ‘America First’ approach, just sort of a different tone.”

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Stati Uniti

Usa. Agosto21. PPI, Producer Price Index, è salito a 8.3 percento.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-13.

2021-09-12__ Usa PPI 000

                         In sintesi.

2021-09-12__ Usa PPI 001

«the final demand index rose 8.3 percent for the 12 months ended in August»

«For the 12 months ended in August, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 6.3 percent»

«Over 30 percent of the August increase in prices for final demand services can be traced to a 7.8-percent rise in margins for health, beauty, and optical goods retailing»

«About a quarter of the August advance in prices for final demand goods can be attributed to an 8.5-percent rise in the index for meats»

«For the 12 months ended in August, the index for processed goods for intermediate demand climbed 23.0 percent»

«For the 12 months ended in August, the index for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand surged 50.1 percent»

«For the 12 months ended in August, prices for services for intermediate demand climbed 8.6 percent»

«For the 12 months ended in August, prices for stage 4 intermediate demand rose 12.1 percent»

«For the 12 months ended in August, the index for stage 3 intermediate demand moved up 20.2 percent»

«For the 12 months ended in August, the index for stage 2 intermediate demand advanced 21.8 percent»

«For the 12 months ended in August, prices for stage 1 intermediate demand rose 21.1 percent.»

2021-09-12__ Usa PPI 002

* * * * * * *

Gli Stati Uniti sono in piena stagflazione.

* * * * * * *


Lo US Bureau of Labor Statistics ha rilasciato il Report Producer Price Index News Release.

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.7 percent in August, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 1.0 percent in July, the same as in June. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index rose 8.3 percent for the 12 months ended in August, the largest advance since 12-month data were first calculated in November 2010.

Leading the August increase in the index for final demand, prices for final demand services rose 0.7 percent. The index for final demand goods moved up 1.0 percent.

Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.3 percent in August after increasing 0.9 percent in July. For the 12 months ended in August, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 6.3 percent, the largest advance since 12-month data were first calculated in August 2014.

                         Final Demand.

Final demand services: Prices for final demand services moved up 0.7 percent in August, the eighth consecutive advance. Two-thirds of the broad-based increase in August can be traced to the index for final demand trade services, which rose 1.5 percent. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) Prices for final demand transportation and warehousing services and for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing climbed 2.8 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively.

Product detail: Over 30 percent of the August increase in prices for final demand services can be traced to a 7.8-percent rise in margins for health, beauty, and optical goods retailing. The indexes for transportation of passengers (partial), chemicals and allied products wholesaling, bundled wired telecommunications access services, machinery and equipment parts and supplies wholesaling, and traveler accommodation services also moved higher. Conversely, prices for hospital outpatient care fell 1.5 percent. The indexes for hardware, building materials, and supplies retailing and for securities brokerage, dealing, investment advice, and related services also decreased. (See table 4.)

                         Final demand goods: The index for final demand goods moved up 1.0 percent in August after increasing 0.6 percent in July. In August, half of the broad-based advance can be attributed to a 2.9-percent rise in prices for final demand foods. The indexes for final demand goods less foods and energy and for final demand energy also moved higher, 0.6 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively.

Product detail: About a quarter of the August advance in prices for final demand goods can be attributed to an 8.5-percent rise in the index for meats. Prices for residential natural gas, industrial chemicals, processed young chickens, motor vehicles, and steel mill products also moved higher. In contrast, the index for iron and steel scrap decreased 3.7 percent. Prices for diesel fuel and for natural, processed, and imitation cheese also moved lower.

                         Intermediate Demand by Commodity Type.

Within intermediate demand in August, prices for processed goods advanced 1.0 percent, the index for unprocessed goods also increased 1.0 percent, and prices for services rose 0.3 percent. (See tables B and C.)

                         Processed goods for intermediate demand: The index for processed goods for intermediate demand moved up 1.0 percent in August after rising 1.7 percent in July. Most of the increase in August is attributable to prices for processed materials less foods and energy, which advanced 1.3 percent. The index for processed foods and feeds rose 2.1 percent. Conversely, prices for processed energy goods fell 0.6 percent. For the 12 months ended in August, the index for processed goods for intermediate demand climbed 23.0 percent, the largest 12-month increase since jumping 23.6 percent in February 1975.

Product detail: One-third of the August advance in the index for processed goods for intermediate demand can be traced to prices for industrial chemicals, which rose 4.9 percent. The indexes for steel mill products; meats; structural, architectural, and pre-engineered metal products; plastic products; and industrial electric power also moved higher. In contrast, diesel fuel prices decreased 1.6 percent. The indexes for softwood lumber and for natural, processed, and imitation cheese also declined. (See table 5.)

                         Unprocessed goods for intermediate demand: The index for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand rose 1.0 percent in August, the fifth consecutive increase. The advance in August is attributable to prices for unprocessed foodstuffs and feedstuffs, which jumped 3.8 percent. Conversely, the index for unprocessed energy materials fell 0.2 percent, while prices for unprocessed nonfood materials less energy were unchanged. For the 12 months ended in August, the index for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand surged 50.1 percent.

Product detail: In August, an 11.0-percent increase in the index for slaughter poultry was a major factor in the rise in prices for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand. The indexes for natural gas, corn, wheat, slaughter steers and heifers, and corrugated recyclable paper also moved higher. In contrast, crude petroleum prices decreased 10.1 percent. The indexes for iron and steel scrap and for raw milk also declined.

                         Services for intermediate demand: The index for services for intermediate demand rose 0.3 percent in August, the ninth consecutive increase. In August, 80 percent of the advance can be traced to margins for trade services for intermediate demand, which moved up 1.1 percent. Prices for transportation and warehousing services for intermediate demand also rose 1.1 percent. Conversely, the index for services less trade, transportation, and warehousing for intermediate demand fell 0.2 percent. For the 12 months ended in August, prices for services for intermediate demand climbed 8.6 percent.

Product detail: Nearly 60 percent of the August increase in prices for services for intermediate demand can be attributed to margins for machinery and equipment parts and supplies wholesaling, which rose 2.8 percent. The indexes for metals, minerals, and ores wholesaling; transportation of passengers (partial); building materials, paint, and hardware wholesaling; nonresidential real estate services; and chemicals and allied products wholesaling also advanced. In contrast, prices for television advertising time sales fell 9.0 percent. The indexes for hardware, building material, and supplies retailing and for warehousing, storage, and related services also declined.

                         Intermediate Demand by Production Flow.

                         Stage 4 intermediate demand: Prices for stage 4 intermediate demand advanced 0.8 percent in August following a 1.1-percent increase in July. In August, the index for total goods inputs to stage 4 intermediate demand rose 0.9 percent, and prices for total services inputs moved up 0.7 percent. (See table D.) Increases in the indexes for meats; machinery and equipment parts and supplies wholesaling; metals, minerals, and ores wholesaling; structural, architectural, and pre-engineered metal products; steel mill products; and nonresidential real estate services outweighed declines in the indexes for securities brokerage, dealing, investment advice, and related services; softwood lumber; and hardware, building materials, and supplies retailing. (See table 6.) For the 12 months ended in August, prices for stage 4 intermediate demand rose 12.1 percent, the largest advance since 12-month data were first calculated in November 2010.

                         Stage 3 intermediate demand: Prices for stage 3 intermediate demand advanced 1.0 percent in August following a 1.1-percent increase in July. In August, the index for total goods inputs to stage 3 intermediate demand rose 1.9 percent, and prices for total services inputs were unchanged. Advances in the indexes for steel mill products; slaughter poultry; metals, minerals, and ores wholesaling; industrial chemicals; corn; and slaughter steers and heifers outweighed decreasing prices for television advertising time sales, raw milk, and softwood lumber. For the 12 months ended in August, the index for stage 3 intermediate demand moved up 20.2 percent, the same as in July.

                         Stage 2 intermediate demand: The index for stage 2 intermediate demand advanced 0.4 percent in August, the fifth consecutive increase. In August, prices for total goods inputs to stage 2 intermediate demand rose 0.5 percent, and the index for total services inputs moved up 0.3 percent. Increases in the indexes for gas fuels; industrial chemicals; steel mill products; machinery and equipment parts and supplies wholesaling; transportation of passengers (partial); and oilseeds outweighed decreasing prices for crude petroleum, television advertising time sales, and softwood lumber. For the 12 months ended in August, the index for stage 2 intermediate demand advanced 21.8 percent.

                         Stage 1 intermediate demand: Prices for stage 1 intermediate demand rose 0.9 percent in August following a 1.9-percent increase in July. In August, the index for total goods inputs to stage 1 intermediate demand moved up 1.3 percent, and prices for total services inputs advanced 0.5 percent.

Increases in the indexes for industrial chemicals; steel mill products; metals, minerals, and ores wholesaling; transportation of passengers (partial); building materials, paint, and hardware wholesaling; and structural, architectural, and pre-engineered metal products outweighed decreases in the indexes for hardware, building materials, and supplies retailing; securities brokerage, dealing, investment advice, and related services; and diesel fuel. For the 12 months ended in August, prices for stage 1 intermediate demand rose 21.1 percent.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

Usa. Martedì sarà pubblicato il CPI consumer price index. Tutti in attesa.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-13.

FED 001

Le previsioni sul CPI sono quanto mai varie.

«The headline reading for the US CPI is expected to slip to 5.3% after holding steady at 5.4% for two consecutive months, while the core rate of inflation is projected to narrow for the second straight month in August. Evidence of slower price growth may generate a bearish reaction in the US Dollar as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) acknowledges that “economy had not yet achieved the Committee’s broad-based and inclusive maximum-employment goal,” and the central bank may retain the current path for monetary policy» [DailyFx]

Non essendo alle corse dei cani, ci si limiterà a dire che martedì sarà pubblicato il CPI consumer price index.

* * * * * * *

«If the CPI is hotter than expected, strategists say it could be a catalyst to move the Fed to consider tapering back its bond purchases sooner rather than later»

«There is also a key retail sales report, which is expected to show a slowdown in spending, and that could trigger more worries about the twin threats of a slower economy while inflation picks up»

«The latest snapshot of the economy comes just a week before the Federal Reserve’s important September meeting»

«a hotter inflation reading could speed up the Fed’s plans to slow the $120 billion a month in bond purchases»

«The consumer price index is expected Tuesday, and there is retail sales data is released Thursday»

«They are expected to show consumer prices jumped at a 5.3% annual pace in August, according to the consensus estimate from FactSet, while the consumer continued to pull back from the high spending levels of earlier in the year»

«If the CPI is hotter than expected, it could make the difference between a September announcement for tapering or waiting to November»

«→→ Economists expect CPI to rise at a 0.4% pace month over month ←←»

«The report comes after August’s producer price index — which was released Friday — showed a jump of 8.3% year over year, due in part to supply chain constraints»

«August’s employment report showed just 235,000 jobs added, about 500,000 less than expected»

«That combination of higher inflation and slower spending, particularly after August’s weaker jobs report, has spurred talk about the threat of stagflation»

* * * * * * *

A nostro sommesso parere, tutte queste previsioni contrastanti generano soltanto una tale confusione da offuscare poi l’analisi dei dati reali.

*


Markets brace for hot consumer inflation report in the week ahead.

– If the CPI is hotter than expected, strategists say it could be a catalyst to move the Fed to consider tapering back its bond purchases sooner rather than later.

– There is also a key retail sales report, which is expected to show a slowdown in spending, and that could trigger more worries about the twin threats of a slower economy while inflation picks up.

*

Investors are paying close attention to any reading on inflation these days, and the consumer price index will be the big one to watch in the coming week.

The latest snapshot of the economy comes just a week before the Federal Reserve’s important September meeting. At that meeting, the Fed is expected to discuss more details about its plan to taper down its bond buying program, or quantitative easing.

Market professionals say a hotter inflation reading could speed up the Fed’s plans to slow the $120 billion a month in bond purchases. The paring back of its asset purchase program would be the Fed’s first major step away from the easy policy it put in place to combat the pandemic.

The consumer price index is expected Tuesday, and there is retail sales data is released Thursday. They are expected to show consumer prices jumped at a 5.3% annual pace in August, according to the consensus estimate from FactSet, while the consumer continued to pull back from the high spending levels of earlier in the year.

                         Hot CPI.

“If the CPI is hotter than expected, it could make the difference between a September announcement for tapering or waiting to November,” Bleakley Advisory Group chief investment officer Peter Boockvar said.

Economists expect CPI to rise at a 0.4% pace month over month. The report comes after August’s producer price index — which was released Friday — showed a jump of 8.3% year over year, due in part to supply chain constraints.

The Fed’s formal announcement about tapering its bond-buying program, also called QE, is widely expected in November or December. Many of those who had expected a September announcement pushed back their time frame to later in the year after August’s employment report showed just 235,000 jobs added, about 500,000 less than expected.

“Certainly the trend has been for the inflation number to come in above expectations. I think if that happens again, it will feed the narrative that high inflation is going to stick. Obviously, it’s an issue for the bond market if it’s viewed at all as accelerating the timing of the QE tapering, and or accelerating the timing of the first rate hike,” CIBC Private Wealth U.S. chief investment officer David Donabedian said. That would be a negative for stocks.

“If markets have an inflation mutiny here and there’s volatility as a result, they could move it up to September,” Donabedian said of the Fed’s taper announcement. “But I think there’s kind of a one in four likelihood in my view.”

                         Stagflation?

That combination of higher inflation and slower spending, particularly after August’s weaker jobs report, has spurred talk about the threat of stagflation. Those worries have also increased as economists ratchet back growth forecasts for the third quarter to a still high level just above 5%, from above 6%.

“I’m more about the ‘flation’ side of it than the ‘stag.’ I think the economy is going to perform fine right through next year,” Donabedian said. He said the slowdown in consumer spending after stimulus checks had boosted retail sales earlier in the year is not surprising and may be just a “short-term warning.”

“We had this explosive growth in retail sales early in the year as a direct result of stimulus payments and vaccines coming and a burst of consumer optimism. It’s really settled down now,” he said. “There was an enormous amount of liquidity and saving and they spent what they spent out of that extra amount of savings and you’re going through a bit of a retracement here, which is why you’re seeing economists mark down their third quarter estimates. Consumer fundamentals are pretty good.”

Barclays chief U.S. economist Michael Gapen said he expects the CPI report to show that inflation is peaking, just as the Fed has said. But he says the slowing trend is not just an issue for consumer spending. It is also showing up in business spending and housing.

“With where labor markets are, August was a bit of an egg. But growth in employment has been solid on average, very robust over the course of the year,” he said. “Even though employment disappointed in August, hours and and earnings were still pretty good. There’s income there for consumers to spend. We’re looking at this as a short-term hiccup.”

Gapen said third-quarter economic growth may be somewhat slower than expected. However, he said some of the lost growth could show up in the fourth quarter.

“It has some characteristics of stagflation, but true stagflation is rising unemployment and rising inflation. We don’t have that,” he said. “These are bottlenecks that are kind of constraining the pace of the recovery and lead to higher inflation. Demand isn’t the problem right now. Supply is. The unemployment rate is still coming down and employment is improving. It has the whiff but I wouldn’t call it stagflation.”

Donabedian expects higher prices and shortages to continue into next year, as supply chains keep getting disrupted. Some companies, including PPG and General Electric, have already commented on how they see issues with supplies stretching into 2022. Donabedian expects to see more warnings ahead of the third-quarter earnings season.

Stocks were lower this week, with the S&P 500 losing 1.7% to 4,458. The closely watched 10-year Treasury yield has held above 1.3% and was at 1.33% on Friday.

A number of strategists expect to see the stock market pullback during the typically choppy September and October period. Some say the Fed’s September meeting could be a catalyst, especially if the central bank sounds particularly hawkish.

“We’re up over 30% in 2019, over 18% last year and over 21% in the first months of this year,” Donabedian said. “These are unsustainable rates or return. …Our takeaway is it’s going to get tougher from here. Valuations are somewhat extended and this whole incredibly supportive policy framework is going to get a little less friendly.”

Pubblicato in: Cina, Diplomazia, Stati Uniti

Xi e Biden hanno avuto una telefonata di novanta minuti. Evitare i conflitti.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-12.

Cina Usa Commercio 001

È un Joe Biden screditato in patria ed all’estero per la débâcle in Afghanistan, attanagliato tra una crescente inflazione ed una stagnazione economica, stagflazione, che ha preso l’iniziativa di telefonare a Mr Xi. Ma non è più il Joe Biden tracotante della prima telefonata di febbraio.

* * * * * * *

Usa. Nonfarm Payrolls 253,000. La débâcle economica di Joe Biden.

Usa. Corte Suprema rifiuta di bloccare la legge del Texas che limita l’aborto.

Cina. Biden travolto da critiche interne ed estere per la vergognosa débâcle in Afganistan.

Usa. Biden. La Cnn accusa l’Amministrazione delle femmine di mancanza di ‘competenza’.

Usa. The New York Times accusa Biden di aver detto detto cose false

Usa. 2021Q2, PPI 6.2%, CPI 6.5%, PCE 4.2%.

Afganistan. Biden, lo zimbello del mondo. I media lo abbandonano irati. Terrorismo.

Afganistan. La débâcle americana è peggio del Vietnam. È devoluzione dell’America.

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                         Xinhua.

«Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday morning took a phone call from his U.S. counterpart, Joseph R. Biden, and the two leaders had candid, in-depth and extensive strategic communication and exchanges on China-U.S. relations and relevant issues of mutual interest»

«Noting that China and the United States are respectively the biggest developing country and the biggest developed country, Xi pointed out that whether they can handle their relationship well bears on the future of the world»

«the basis of respecting each other’s core concerns and properly managing differences, the relevant departments of the two countries may continue their engagement and dialogue to advance coordination and cooperation»

«For his part, Biden said that the two countries have no interest in letting competition veer into conflict, and that the U.S. side has no intention to change the one-China policy»

«avoid miscommunication, miscalculation and unintended conflict, and get U.S.-China relations back on track»

                         Reuters.

«U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping spoke for 90 minutes on Thursday, in their first talks in seven months, discussing the need to ensure that competition between the world’s two largest economies does not veer into conflict»

«The conversation focused on economic issues»

«Xi said that if “core concerns” on both sides were respected, diplomatic breakthroughs could still be made»

«The Biden administration, preoccupied by a chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, has signaled that ending America’s longest war will give U.S. political and military leaders the space to tackle more pressing threats from China’s rapid rise»

«→→ But Beijing has been quick to seize on the U.S. failure in Afghanistan to try to portray the United States as a fickle partner ←←»

«The senior U.S. administration official told reporters before the call that Washington had been disappointed that Chinese officials appeared only willing to read talking points during recent high-level talks»

«Even so, the official said Biden had not planned to raise the prospect of U.S. retaliatory action or “costs” if China refused to co-operate on a range of issues, including investigations into the origin of COVID-19»

«We also think that essentially Beijing’s actions are quieter than their words»

* * * * * * *

Tutti i colloqui di pace sono sempre auspicabili e benvenuti, ancorché ottengano solo piccoli risultati.

In fondo, la Cina richiede soltanto di essere trattata in via paritetica, nel pieno rispetto dell’altrui sovranità, senza indebite ingerenze nelle politiche interne.

Il resto viene di conserva.

*


Xi holds extensive strategic communication with Biden

Beijing, Sept. 10 (Xinhua) — Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday morning took a phone call from his U.S. counterpart, Joseph R. Biden, and the two leaders had candid, in-depth and extensive strategic communication and exchanges on China-U.S. relations and relevant issues of mutual interest.

Noting that China and the United States are respectively the biggest developing country and the biggest developed country, Xi pointed out that whether they can handle their relationship well bears on the future of the world, and it is a question of the century to which the two countries must provide a good answer.

With the international community facing many common challenges, China and the United States need to show broad vision and shoulder great responsibilities, he said, adding that the two countries should look ahead and press forward, demonstrate strategic courage and political resolve, and bring China-U.S. relations back to the right track of stable development as soon as possible for the good of the people in both countries and around the world.

On the basis of respecting each other’s core concerns and properly managing differences, the relevant departments of the two countries may continue their engagement and dialogue to advance coordination and cooperation on climate change, COVID-19 response and economic recovery as well as on major international and regional issues, Xi said.

In the meantime, the two sides may tap more potential of cooperation to inject more positive dynamics into the relationship, he added.

For his part, Biden said that the two countries have no interest in letting competition veer into conflict, and that the U.S. side has no intention to change the one-China policy.

The U.S. side, he added, is prepared to have more candid exchanges and constructive discussions with China to identify key and priority areas where cooperation is possible, avoid miscommunication, miscalculation and unintended conflict, and get U.S.-China relations back on track. Enditem

* * *


Facing stalemate in ties, Biden and China’s Xi discuss avoiding conflict in call

Washington/Beijing, Sept 9 (Reuters) – U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping spoke for 90 minutes on Thursday, in their first talks in seven months, discussing the need to ensure that competition between the world’s two largest economies does not veer into conflict.

The U.S. side said the “proof will be in the pudding” as to whether the stalemate can be broken with ties between the superpowers languishing at their lowest point in decades.

In a statement, the White House said Biden and Xi had “a broad, strategic discussion,” including areas where interests and values converge and diverge. The conversation focused on economic issues, climate change and COIVD-19, a senior U.S. official told reporters.

“President Biden underscored the United States’ enduring interest in peace, stability, and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific and the world and the two leaders discussed the responsibility of both nations to ensure competition does not veer into conflict,” the White House added.

Occasional high-level meetings since Xi and Biden’s first call in February have yielded scant progress on issues ranging from human rights to transparency over the origins of COVID-19.  

In the months since, the two sides have lashed out at each other almost constantly, often with vitriolic public attacks, sanctions on officials and criticism over not upholding international obligations.

Chinese state media said Xi had told Biden that U.S. policy on China imposed “serious difficulties” on relations, but added that both sides agreed to maintain frequent contact and ask working-level teams to step up communications.

“China and the United States should … show strategic courage and insight, and political boldness, and push Sino-U.S. relations back to the right track of stable development as soon as possible,” state media said, citing Xi.

Asian currencies and share markets strengthened, as investors speculated that the call could bring a thaw in ties between the two most important trading partners of regional economies.

Xi said that if “core concerns” on both sides were respected, diplomatic breakthroughs could still be made in the area of climate change, adding that the issue could add “positive factors” to the relationship.

During a visit to China by Biden’s top climate envoy John Kerry last week, senior diplomat Wang Yi said climate change was an “oasis” in China-U.S. relations but it could not be separated from broader disputes.  

‘PROOF WILL BE IN THE PUDDING’

The Biden administration, preoccupied by a chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, has signaled that ending America’s longest war will give U.S. political and military leaders the space to tackle more pressing threats from China’s rapid rise.  

But Beijing has been quick to seize on the U.S. failure in Afghanistan to try to portray the United States as a fickle partner.

Last month, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Washington should not expect China’s cooperation on that or other issues if it was also trying to “contain and suppress” China.  

The senior U.S. administration official told reporters before the call that Washington had been disappointed that Chinese officials appeared only willing to read talking points during recent high-level talks.

The official added that the U.S. side saw the leaders’ call as a test of whether direct engagement with Xi could end what had become a stalemate in ties.

“This is about seeing if there is an ability to engage more substantively than we’ve been able to … the proof will be in the pudding,” the official said after the call, describing the tone as candid, but respectful.

But the official also acknowledged that the United States’ ability to change China’s behavior may be limited, and that Washington must largely focus on shoring up competitiveness and rallying partners and allies.

Successive U.S. administrations have complained that Beijing has sought to use endless dialogue as a delaying tactic, frustration with which ultimately led Washington to end an annual U.S.-China dialogue mechanism.

Even so, the official said Biden had not planned to raise the prospect of U.S. retaliatory action or “costs” if China refused to co-operate on a range of issues, including investigations into the origin of COVID-19.

Beijing denies the U.S. accusation that it has not co-operated with the pandemic source investigation.

The U.S. official said it would require a “training period” for the Biden administration to convince Chinese leaders, who are preparing for an important Communist Party congress next year, that Beijing’s stance would not pay dividends.

“We also think that essentially Beijing’s actions are quieter than their words,” the official said. “Their responses to our actions have actually been largely symbolic and frankly their hard line rhetoric isn’t really working.”