Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

Buffett Indicator. 27 maggio. Vale il 231 percento.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-31.

2021-05-31__ Buffett 001

                         Theory & Data.

The Buffett Indicator is the ratio of total US stock market valuation to GDP. Named after Warren Buffett, who called the ratio “the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment”. (Buffett later walked back those comments, hesitating to endorse any single measure as either comprehensive or consistent over time, but this ratio remains credited to his name). To calculate the ratio, we need to get data for both metrics: Total Market Value and GDP.

                         Total Market Value.

The most common measurement of the aggregate value of the US stock market is the Wilshire 5000. This is available directly from Wilshire (links to all data sources below), with monthly data starting in 1971, and daily measures beginning in 1980. The Wilshire index was created such that a 1-point increase in the index corresponds to a $1 billion increase in US market cap. Since inception that 1:1 ratio has drifted, and per Wilshire, as of Dec 2013 a 1-point increase in the index corresponded to a $1.15 billion dollar increase. We adjust the data back to inception (and projected going forward) on a straight-line basis to compensate for this drift. For example, the Sep 2020 Wilshire Index of 35,807 corresponds to a total real market cap value of $42.27T USD.

For data prior to 1970 (where Wilshire data is not available) we use the Z.1 Financial Account – Nonfinancial corporate business; corporate equities; liability, Level, published by the Federal Reserve, which provides a quarterly estimate of total market value back to 1945. In order to integrate the datasets, we index the Z.1 data to match up to the 1970 Wilshire starting point.

Combined, these data make our Composite US Stock Market Value data series, shown below. Our estimate of current composite US stock market value is $52.0T.

                         GDP.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) represents the total production of the US economy. This is measured quarterly by the US Government’s Bureau of Economic Analysis. The GDP is a static measurement of prior economic activity – it does not forecast the future or include any expectation or valuation of future economic activity or economic growth. The GDP is calculated and published quarterly, several months in arrears, such that by the time the data is published it is several months old. In order to provide updated data for the most recent quarter we use the most recent GDPNow estimate published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. The GDP data is all nominal and not inflation adjusted. Our estimate of current (annualized) GDP is $22.6T. A historical chart of GDP is shown below.

                         The Ratio of the Two.

Given that the stock market represents primarily expectations of future economic activity, and the GDP is a measure of most recent economic activity, the ratio of these two data series represents expected future growth relative to current performance. This is similar in nature to how we think about the PE ratio of a particular stock. It stands to reason that this ratio would remain relatively stable over time, and increase slowly over time as technology allows for the same labor and capital to be used ever more efficiently.

Pubblicato in: Economia e Produzione Industriale, Finanza e Sistema Bancario

BlackRock rafforza il controllo della Exxon Mobil Corp.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-31.

2021-05-27__ Exxon Mobil 001

L’importante non è possedere.

L’importante è poter disporre.

«conta chi governa i consigli di amministrazione».


BlackRock. Q3. Assets a 7.81 trilioni Usd dai 7.32 del trimestre precedente.

I tre giganti. I nuovi discreti padroni dell’Occidente. Nomi quasi ignoti.

I soliti maligni sussurrano che sia BlackRock triturare i socialisti europei.

Cina. I capitali internazionali acquistano bond cinesi in yuan.

BlackRock anticipa l’apertura cinese alla finanza occidentale. 3.4 trilioni in tre anni.

BlackRock, Temasek Set Up China Asset-Management Joint Venture.

Warning! BlackRock guida la rivolta degli azionisti.

Exxon Mobil Corp e la Cina. Notizia non economica bensì politica.

* * *

Blackrock. Mr Fink, il vero padrone del mondo.

«Blackrock è la più grande società di investimenti a livello mondiale e gestisce direttamente oltre 7,320 miliardi di dollari. Ma questo è solo la punta di iceberg.

 «Attraverso BlackRock Solutions – risultato di continui investimenti in sistemi tecnologici integrati altamente sofisticati – BlackRock offre soluzioni di gestione del rischio e piattaforme d’investimento ad un’ampia rosa di clienti istituzionali, detentori di un patrimonio complessivo di oltre 7.320 miliardi di dollari.»

Più tutto il resto.

Fondata da Robert S. Kapito e da Laurence Fink nel 1988, ha basato il suo successo su alcune semplicissime considerazioni.

– Una società di investimenti può ammaliare un potenziale cliente, ma se non lo fa guadagnare perde sia il cliente sia il suo entourage. I clienti soddisfatti sono fedeli e portano immediatamente altri clienti. Il guadagno assicurato è la migliore forma pubblicitaria possibile.

– Gli investimenti devono essere copiosi, fruttiferi e stabili nel tempo. Quindi, pochissimo mordi e fuggi. Solo investimenti strategici. La platea deve essere semplicemente il mondo.

– Tipicamente, si rileva un pacchetto di compartecipazione in una società produttiva sana. Non un pacchetto di maggioranza, sarebbe troppo oneroso, ma di dimensioni tali da poter nominare membri nel cda e da poter influenzare la condotta della società stessa.

– Le società delle quali BlackRock detiene una partecipazione azionaria formano un network virtuale di aziende sane e redditizie, che si spalleggiano le une con le altre. Per esempio, una società produttrice utilizzerà delle banche ove sia presente Blackrock, si servirà da fornitori Blackrock, venderà ad utilizzatori Blackrock.

– Ma la idea portante è utilizzare il denaro degli altri, ossia degli investitori, per ottenere il condizionamento del cda di una società, obbligandolo alla generazione di reddito da ripartire tra gli azionisti ed alle norme comportamentali su riportate. La conditio sine qua non è una gestione impeccabile di quanto conferito. A nessuno mai interesserà come il denaro sia investito purché esso frutti utili copiosi.

– La onestà di comportamento nei confronti degli investitori che hanno conferito il loro denaro da gestire è il cuore del comportamento di BlackRock, e ne condiziona eticamente ogni azione. Infatti nessun investimento dura nel tempo se è utilizzato in modo improprio.

– Nella realtà dei fatti, BlackRock ha introdotto una filosofia di investimenti volta sicuramente al profitto, ma molto di più al controllo: in altri termini, al potere.  Non solo. Se è difficile entrare nel suo organico, è facilissimo uscirne: le progressioni di carriera sono fortemente meritocratiche, basate solo sui risultati ottenuti. Si viene così a formare una scuola dirigenziale di elevato valore, che potrebbe in ogni momento transitare alla politica surclassando i classici candidati mediatici. In altri termini: è un nuovo modo di fare politica.»

* * * * * * *


«BlackRock Inc, Exxon Mobil Corp’s  second largest shareholder, has voted for three of four candidates nominated by hedge fund Engine No. 1 to join the energy company’s board»

«BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has a 6.7% stake in Exxon, according to the company’s proxy»

«the top U.S. oil producer, has been calling shareholders including Vanguard and State Street to support for its slate of 12 directors»

«Engine No. 1 has a stake worth only about $50 million in Exxon, a company with a market capitalization of about $250 billion, but its traction with BlackRock underscores the importance investors are giving to environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) factors»

«The hedge fund has criticized Exxon, saying it is not moving fast enough to reduce its carbon footprint»

«The International Energy Agency (IEA) has said investors should stop funding new fossil fuel projects if they want to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 2050»

«The final vote could turn on Exxon’s three largest investors — Vanguard, State Street and BlackRock. Vanguard owns about 8.2% of the Exxon’s stock while State Street owns 5.7%»

«Engine No.1 proposed four directors — Gregory Goff, Kaisa Hietala, Alexander Karsner and Anders Runevad — with expertise in energy, technology and regulatory policy. BlackRock supported all but Runevad»

«The California-based hedge fund won the backing of three large pension funds and other investors dissatisfied with Exxon’s efforts to chart a clean energy strategy»

* * * * * * *

L’importante non è possedere. L’importante è poter gestire e controllare.

«conta chi governa i consigli di amministrazione».

*


BlackRock backs 3 director nominees challenging Exxon board – sources.

BlackRock Inc, Exxon Mobil Corp’s  second largest shareholder, has voted for three of four candidates nominated by hedge fund Engine No. 1 to join the energy company’s board, people familiar with the matter said on Tuesday.

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has a 6.7% stake in Exxon, according to the company’s proxy. Its vote signals investors have grown much more serious about fighting climate change, adding pressure to Exxon and other oil companies.

Exxon declined comment until after voting results are disclosed on Wednesday. Other sources have told Reuters that the top U.S. oil producer, has been calling shareholders including Vanguard and State Street to support for its slate of 12 directors.

Engine No. 1 has a stake worth only about $50 million in Exxon, a company with a market capitalization of about $250 billion, but its traction with BlackRock underscores the importance investors are giving to environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) factors. The hedge fund has criticized Exxon, saying it is not moving fast enough to reduce its carbon footprint.

Exxon holds its annual shareholder meeting on Wednesday and investors have the option of changing their votes until then.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has said investors should stop funding new fossil fuel projects if they want to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

BlackRock did not respond to a request for comment.

The sources requested anonymity because BlackRock does not publicly disclose how it casts its vote ahead of time.

The final vote could turn on Exxon’s three largest investors — Vanguard, State Street and BlackRock. Vanguard owns about 8.2% of the Exxon’s stock while State Street owns 5.7%. Vanguard will not disclose its decision before the meeting, a spokesman said on Tuesday.

BlackRock has been more willing than Vanguard and State Street to back dissident investors, analysts have said. Its decision could prove critical to securing one or more seats for Engine No.1’s nominees.

Engine No.1 proposed four directors — Gregory Goff, Kaisa Hietala, Alexander Karsner and Anders Runevad — with expertise in energy, technology and regulatory policy. BlackRock supported all but Runevad, the people said. Exxon has said the four do not have the expertise needed for its board.

The California-based hedge fund won the backing of three large pension funds and other investors dissatisfied with Exxon’s efforts to chart a clean energy strategy. Exxon’s past dismissal of governance and climate concerns also cost its support, investors have said.

Three proxy advisory firms that guide how investors vote backed the hedge fund’s slate. Institutional Shareholder Services recommended three of Engine No.1’s candidates while Glass Lewis backed two of the hedge fund’s candidates.

Exxon pledged on Monday to add two new board members with energy and climate expertise within 12 months. Exxon’s share price has climbed 45% since the start of the year. It stocks was off 2% at $58.30 at midday on Tuesday.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Stati Uniti

Usa. Fed. Bloomberg afferma che soffre di crisi paranoiche. Ipp +6.2% – Bloomberg.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-31.

2021-05-28__ Fed Paranoia 001

Beh: se lo dice Bloomberg ….

«The Fed is suffering from tantrum paranoia»

«The dangers of losing the market’s confidence on inflation are worse than those from cutting back the flow of quantitative easing»

«The U.S. Federal Reserve risks waiting too long before trimming back its stimulus out of fear of a repeat of the 2013 taper tantrum, but this time really is different as it needs to prove its inflation-fighting chops»

«The dangers of leaving it too late and losing the market’s confidence are worse than those from cutting back the flow of quantitative easing»

«A difference of opinion between the Fed’s view of what it sees as transitory price gains and the market’s assessment of the pricing of forward inflation expectations led to a sharp bond selloff in February»

«The Fed isn’t alone in this dilemma but it’s the only one suffering institutional paranoia because of the 2013 taper tantrum»

«The Bank of Canada has started tapering without any discernable impact on yields and the Bank of England will almost certainly end its QE program at the end of 2021»

«The Fed is still sticking by its central belief that most of the sharp inflation gains will fade next year»

«For the Fed to still be pumping in monthly stimulus of $120 billion creates big inflationary pressures, especially when set alongside U.S. growth this year that’s forecast to exceed 6%.»

«Consumer prices rose at an annual pace of 4.2% in April, with the more forward-looking producer price measure rising 6.2%»

«the Fed will start tapering at the end of this year and begin raising rates in early 2022»

«Bond yields are probably heading higher over time, which is logical with the global economy recapturing lost ground from last year»

* * * * * * *

Il 13 maggio lo U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics ha rilasciato il dato che l’Indice dei Prezzi di Produzione (IPP) è salito al 6.2%, anno su anno.

«On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index moved up 6.2 percent for the 12 months ended in April, the largest advance since 12-month data were first calculated in November 2010.»

Se i costi di produzione aumentano del 6.2%, sembrerebbe lecito aspettarsi una inflazione ben più alta di quella spearata dalla Fed.

«The Fed is suffering from tantrum paranoia»

*


The Fed Is Suffering From Tantrum Paranoia

The dangers of losing the market’s confidence on inflation are worse than those from cutting back the flow of quantitative easing.

The U.S. Federal Reserve risks waiting too long before trimming back its stimulus out of fear of a repeat of the 2013 taper tantrum, but this time really is different as it needs to prove its inflation-fighting chops. The dangers of leaving it too late and losing the market’s confidence are worse than those from cutting back the flow of quantitative easing. With a balance sheet of more than $7 trillion the risks of overdoing the tapering are relatively small. 

A difference of opinion between the Fed’s view of what it sees as transitory price gains and the market’s assessment of the pricing of forward inflation expectations led to a sharp bond selloff in February. The Fed risks a repeat if it doesn’t appear credible on inflation. If its more benign view is proved right — and inflation returns to close to the 2% Fed target next year — it can always modify its course.

The Fed isn’t alone in this dilemma but it’s the only one suffering institutional paranoia because of the 2013 taper tantrum. It needs to get over this: The levels of stimulus and the upswing in inflation were much lower then. The Bank of Canada has started tapering without any discernable impact on yields and the Bank of England will almost certainly end its QE program at the end of 2021. The grumblings from hawks on the European Central Bank’s governing council are getting louder but it’s in no shape to front run the Fed. Inflation is a collective global problem but where the U.S. goes the rest largely follow.

That’s why it’s important to recognize any subtle shifts in the Fed’s view of whether the economic rebound will lead to an embedded shift in the inflationary environment. Vice Chair Richard Clarida noted last week that, “If we were to see upward pressure on prices or inflation that threatened to put inflation expectations higher, I’ve no doubt that we’d use our tools to address that situation.” 

Even Lael Brainard, a dovish member of the Federal Open Mark Committee, qualified her belief that long-term inflation expectations are well-anchored with the proviso that “we have the tools and the experience to gently guide inflation back to target” and that “no one should doubt our commitment to do so.”

The Fed is still sticking by its central belief that most of the sharp inflation gains will fade next year. As a result, market fears of runaway inflation are subsiding even though central bank stimulus shows little sign of wavering.

But the prospect of inflation hasn’t suddenly vanished. For the Fed to still be pumping in monthly stimulus of $120 billion creates big inflationary pressures, especially when set alongside U.S. growth this year that’s forecast to exceed 6%. Consumer prices rose at an annual pace of 4.2% in April, with the more forward-looking producer price measure rising 6.2%. The release of the May CPI data on June 10 will be a major test of market confidence in the Fed’s reassurances.

James Gorman, Morgan Stanley’s boss, believes the Fed will start tapering at the end of this year and begin raising rates in early 2022. That might be too fast for the FOMC’s current thinking but if inflation remains significantly above the 2% official target it may be hard to resist, especially if Joe Biden’s administration continues with its multi-trillion dollar fiscal splurge.

Bond yields are probably heading higher over time, which is logical with the global economy recapturing lost ground from last year. The question is whether this will be an orderly process, with the Fed more in lockstep with the evident inflationary risks. Financial markets need to believe central bank modelling isn’t divorced from the reality of supply bottlenecks, commodity price surges and a boom in retail sales. Time for central banks to start planning the orderly wind down of record stimulus. It’ll be safer in the long run.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo

Germania. Sondaggi. Il 6 giugno si vota in Sachsen-Anhalt. AfD al 23%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-31.

2021-06-02__ Germania polls 001

Gli ultimi sondaggi elettorali in Germania confermano due dati.

– La Union, Cdu e Csu, otterrebbe il 25% – 26%, avendo sorpassato sia pure di poco i Grüne, che avrebbero il 24% – 25%

– In Sachsen-Anhalt, ove si vota il 6 giugno, la Union sarebbe al 29%, i Grüne al 9%, ed AfD al 23%.

2021-06-02__ Germania polls 002

* * * * * * *


«Il 6 giugno cruciali elezioni in Sassonia-Anhalt»

«Un fantasma si aggira per l’ex Ddr, e porta il nome dell’Afd»

«la posta in gioco va ben oltre i confini della Sassonia Anhalt: non solo queste sono le ultime elezioni importanti prima del voto nazionale del 26 settembre, ma la Cdu di Angela Merkel corre il serio rischio di subire un cocente sorpasso da parte dell’Afd»

«Se per il “Politbarometer” dell’emittente pubblica Zdf i cristiano-democratici sono ancora primi con il 29% contro il 23% dell’ultradestra, il rilevamento di due giorni fa realizzato dall’istituto Insa per la Bild vede in pole position l’Afd con il 26%, mentre la Cdu e’ costretta alla rincorsa, con il 25% dei consensi»

«Uno scenario horror, anche dal punto di vista delle possibili coalizioni di governo: con i socialdemocratici al 10% e gli ambientalisti all’11%, l’attuale coalizione formata da Cdu, Spd e Verdi perderebbe per un soffio la maggioranza parlamentare»

« potrebbe avere come effetto una ulteriore radicalizzazione dell’ultradestra, che si vede confermata come l’unica forza “pura e dura” dell’opposizione »

«Ma e’ in generale la performance dell’ultradestra nei Laender della ex Germania Est a fare paura»

«nella ex Ddr la presenza dell’ultradestra e’ ben piu’ consolidata che nella Germania occidentale»

«A complicare ulteriormente il quadro, la notizia che un militare della Bundeswehr classificato come “estremista di destra” dall’intelligence figura tra le liste dei candidati dell’Afd: si tratta di tale Maximilian Tischer»

* * * * * * *

Se fosse vero che la politica altro non sia che l’arte del possibile, di coagulare forze politiche disparate, di ingraziarsi il consenso elettorale, si potrebbe serenamente concludere che Merkel e Cdu siano fallimenti politici.

*


Germania, ex Ddr choc: vola la destra. All’Est Afd sfonda quota 20%

Il 6 giugno cruciali elezioni in Sassonia-Anhalt.

Un fantasma si aggira per l’ex Ddr, e porta il nome dell’Afd. Non a caso e’ con una notevole ansia che a Berlino si guarda alle elezioni nella Sassonia-Anhalt, il prossimo 6 giugno. Altrettanto sintomatico il frenetico tour che il candidato cancelliere dell’unione Cdu/Csu, Armin Laschet, sta compiendo in questi giorni in questo Land della Germania centro-orientale: due eventi a Dessau, quattro appuntamenti tra Halle e alcune localita’ del sud. Ancora piu’ significativo considerando che il leader della Cdu va a sostenere con tanto entusiasmo il governatore uscente Reiner Haseloff, nonostante che costui avesse apertamente sostenuto il suo avversario nella corsa alla candidatura per la successione di Angela Merkel, ovvero il leader bavarese Markus Soeder. Tutto dimenticato. Anche perche’ la posta in gioco va ben oltre i confini della Sassonia Anhalt: non solo queste sono le ultime elezioni importanti prima del voto nazionale del 26 settembre, ma la Cdu di Angela Merkel corre il serio rischio di subire un cocente sorpasso da parte dell’Afd. Stando ai sondaggi si profila un testa a testa con l’ultradestra. E questo proprio in un Land in cui la Cdu governa ininterrottamente da quasi vent’anni.

Se per il “Politbarometer” dell’emittente pubblica Zdf i cristiano-democratici sono ancora primi con il 29% contro il 23% dell’ultradestra, il rilevamento di due giorni fa realizzato dall’istituto Insa per la Bild vede in pole position l’Afd con il 26%, mentre la Cdu e’ costretta alla rincorsa, con il 25% dei consensi. Uno scenario horror, anche dal punto di vista delle possibili coalizioni di governo: con i socialdemocratici al 10% e gli ambientalisti all’11%, l’attuale coalizione formata da Cdu, Spd e Verdi perderebbe per un soffio la maggioranza parlamentare. C’e’ gia’ chi ipotizza che in un quadro del genere possa formarsi una sorta di fronte democratico allargato pur di non rischiare un governo con la partecipazione di Alternative fuer Deutschland. Una possibilita’, dicono alcuni analisti, potrebbe essere quella di allargare l’alleanza anche ai liberali dell’Fdp, che superando la soglia del 5% hanno ottime speranze di rientrare nel Parlamento regionale. Solo che una tale prospettiva, ragionano i commentatori, potrebbe avere come effetto una ulteriore radicalizzazione dell’ultradestra, che si vede confermata come l’unica forza “pura e dura” dell’opposizione. Se invece il distacco tra Cdu e Afd fosse maggiore, come quello del sondaggio della Zdf, sono plausibili anche altre maggioranza, per esempio con l’Fdp al posto dei Verdi. Tutte ipotesi, certo. Ma sufficienti per allarmare il quartier generale della Cdu alla Konrad Adenauer Haus di Berlino. Dove si cerca di rassicurarsi vedendo che Haseloff continua a detenere il favore del 68% dell’elettorato della Sassonia Anhalt, uno scarto gigantesco rispetto a quel 7% racimolato dallo sfidante dell’Afd, Oliver Kirchner.

Ma e’ in generale la performance dell’ultradestra nei Laender della ex Germania Est a fare paura. L’Afd supera ampiamente il 20% dei consensi anche in Turingia, corre per essere primo partito in Sassonia, supera la Cdu (ma rincorre la Spd) in Brandeburgo, e’ con ampio margine terzo partito in Meclemburgo. In altre parole: nella ex Ddr la presenza dell’ultradestra e’ ben piu’ consolidata che nella Germania occidentale. In pratica: una vittoria dell’Afd in Sassonia Anhalt non solo sarebbe un pessimo viatico per la Cdu in vista del voto federale di fine settembre (anzi, “una catastrofe”, secondo lo Spiegel), gia’ messa sulla difensiva a causa del boom di consensi per i Verdi e per le ferite sanguinose lasciate dal duello per la cancelleria tra Laschet e il bavarese Soeder. Ma per di piu’ sarebbe anche una conferma di quel “muro invisibile” che spacca ancora il Paese a oltre trent’anni dalla caduta del Muro di Berlino. Una spaccatura che oggi porta il marchio dell’Afd. La quale proprio nei Laender dell’ex Ddr e’ in una fase di ulteriore radicalizzazione: il capo dell’ultradestra in Turingia, Bjorn Hoecke, e’ anche il leader della corrente nazional-populista del partito, sempre piu’ determinante negli equilibri nazionali (oltreche’ messa sotto osservazione dai servizi segreti interni tedeschi). Una spinta verso “la destra dell’ultradestra” che pare confermata anche dalla vittoria dei due candidati di punta di Alternative fuer Deutschland a livello nazionale, Alice Weidel e Tino Chrupalla, considerata uno schiaffo per il presidente del partito, il “moderato” Joerg Meuthen. Per dire della sensibilita’ sul tema Afd, alcuni esponenti della Cdu in Sassonia Anhalt hanno inviato una lettera aperta alla presidenza del partito nel Land per chiedere che a tutti i propri candidati venisse imposta una dichiarazione in cui escludessero esplicitamente ogni possibile collaborazione con l’ultradestra. Il tema e’ delicatissimo e accende gli animi. A complicare ulteriormente il quadro, la notizia che un militare della Bundeswehr classificato come “estremista di destra” dall’intelligence figura tra le liste dei candidati dell’Afd: si tratta di tale Maximilian Tischer, che secondo lo Spiegel avrebbe rapporti con Franco A., un altro ufficiale dell’esercito attualmente sotto processo per terrorismo di destra, accusato di aver pianificato un attentato contro importanti personalita’ politiche da compiere sotto le mentite spoglie di un profugo siriano. Con l’eccezione delle comunali in Bassa Sassonia fissate per il 12 settembre, il voto in Sassonia Anhalt del 6 giugno e’ l’appuntamento elettorale piu’ rilevante prima dell’election day del 26 settembre, quando si apriranno le urne delle elezioni nazionali per il rinnovo del Bundestag nonche’ quelle regionali della Turingia, del Meclemburgo e di Berlino. Una partita ad alta tensione.

Pubblicato in: Agricoltura, Devoluzione socialismo

Italia. 2020. Agricoltura. In Volume -3.2%, Valore Aggiunto -6.0%. – Istat.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-30.

2021-05-29__ Istat Agricoltura 001

Istat ha rilasciato il Report L’andamento dell’economia agricola

«Dopo la performance negativa del 2019 (-1,6% il valore aggiunto in volume), con la crisi dovuta alla pandemia da Covid-19, il settore dell’agricoltura, silvicoltura e pesca ha subìto una ulteriore marcata contrazione: nel 2020 la produzione è diminuita in volume del 3,2% e il valore aggiunto del 6%.

La flessione è stata più contenuta per la produzione agricola di beni e servizi (-1,4% in volume e -0,5% in valore), gli effetti della pandemia hanno però inciso pesantemente sulle attività secondarie dell’agricoltura (-20,3% in volume). Per la silvicoltura si rileva un lieve aumento della produzione (+0,4%) e del valore aggiunto (+0,7%), di contro è stato molto negativo l’andamento del comparto della pesca, che ha visto un deciso ridimensionamento tanto della produzione (-8,8%) che del valore aggiunto (-5,3%).

Il valore aggiunto dell’industria alimentare, delle bevande e del tabacco è cresciuto dell’1,8% a prezzi correnti ma è diminuito della stessa entità in volume (-1,8%).

Il complesso del comparto agroalimentare (che comprende agricoltura, silvicoltura e pesca e industria alimentare) ha registrato, per la prima volta dal 2016, una diminuzione del valore aggiunto (-1,2% a prezzi correnti e -4% in volume). È il comparto in cui si è formato il 4,3% del valore aggiunto dell’intera economia (era il 4,1% nel 2019): il settore primario ha contribuito per il 2,2% (come nel 2019) e l’industria alimentare per il 2,1% (l’1,9% nel 2019). Nonostante i risultati non positivi il settore agroalimentare ha consolidato nel 2020 il proprio peso all’interno del quadro economico nazionale.»

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Geopolitica Africa

Nigeria. 2021Q1. Il pil ritorna ad essere positivo 0.51%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-30.

2021-05-26__ Nigeria

«Nigeria’s economy grew 0.5% in the first quarter, lifted by higher crude production and oil prices, the country’s statistics office said on Sunday, as activities slowly gain momentum after the gradual easing of coronavirus lockdowns»

«Africa’s largest economy, exited its second recession since 2016 in the fourth quarter, despite a full-year contraction in 2020»

«Nigeria had been grappling with low growth before the coronavirus pandemic triggered a recession and created large financing gaps, including dollar shortages and inflation»

«Nigeria had been grappling with low growth before the coronavirus pandemic triggered a recession and created large financing gaps, including dollar shortages and inflation»

«Oil, which accounts for around two-thirds of Nigerian government revenue and 90% of foreign exchange, contracted 2.21% in the first quarter as crude production rose to 1.72 million barrels per day from the fourth quarter»

«Dollar shortages have stoked inflation to a more than 4-year high, while a shrinking labour market and mounting insecurity have pressured households»

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Questi macrodati suggerirebbero che la Nigeria stia uscendo dalla fase recessiva: permangono i forti dubbi su come possa contenere l’inflazione, ad oggi sopra il 12%.

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Nigeria’s economy grows in first quarter on oil price rise.

Abuja (Reuters) – Nigeria’s economy grew 0.5% in the first quarter, lifted by higher crude production and oil prices, the country’s statistics office said on Sunday, as activities slowly gain momentum after the gradual easing of coronavirus lockdowns.

Africa’s largest economy, exited its second recession since 2016 in the fourth quarter, despite a full-year contraction in 2020.

Nigeria had been grappling with low growth before the coronavirus pandemic triggered a recession and created large financing gaps, including dollar shortages and inflation.

“The Q1 2021 growth rate was slower than the 1.87% growth rate recorded in Q1 2020 but higher than 0.11% recorded in Q4 2020, indicative of a slow but continuous recovery,” The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said.

Nigeria is inoculating its 200 million citizens, but last month directed its regions to stop giving first doses of AstraZeneca vaccines once they use half their current stock, to safeguard supply for a second dose.

The NBS said the non-oil sector, which the government is trying to make the main growth sector, rose 0.79% in the first quarter. Telecoms, crop production, real estate, food manufacturing and construction lifted growth in the quarter.

Crude prices rose above $70/barrel on Tuesday but fell on Wednesday on renewed demand concerns as COVID-19 cases in Asia rose and fears that rising inflation might lead the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise rates, which could limit growth.

Oil, which accounts for around two-thirds of Nigerian government revenue and 90% of foreign exchange, contracted 2.21% in the first quarter as crude production rose to 1.72 million barrels per day from the fourth quarter.

With weak growth, few expect Nigeria’s central bank to alter interest rates next week.

The bank has pursued an accommodative stance by leaving interest rates on hold. However, dollar shortages have stoked inflation to a more than 4-year high, while a shrinking labour market and mounting insecurity have pressured households.

“While this points to the likelihood of firmer growth from the second quarter, it still does not allow for a more robust policy response to inflationary pressures,” Razia Khan, chief economist for Africa and the Middle East at Standard Chartered, said.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo

Italia. Aprile21. Prezzi Produzione Industriale +6.5%. L’inflazione è in casa. – Istat.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-29.

2021-05-29__ Italia - IPP (Indice dei Prezzi di Produzione) (Annuale) 001

All’aumento dei costi di produzione corrisponde un congruo aumento dei prezzi al consumo.

Anche se tecnicamente sarebbe solo una approssimazione, l’aumento dei prezzi al consumo significa inflazione.

L’inflazione è democratica: colpisce tutti senza nessuna esclusione.

Chi mai si fosse illuso che il sistema avesse potuto durare in eterno dovrà ricredersi, commisurando i prezzi riportati nelle poche vetrine ancora sopravissute con i denari che ha in tasca.

Nulla come la miseria e la fame fanno rinsavire. Nel caso non ci riuscissero, Sorella Morte provvederà in modo sollecito.

I liberal dovrebbe gioire profondamente: questa è solo selezione naturale darwiniana. Ci si sta evolvendo.

2021-05-29__ Italia - IPP (Indice dei Prezzi di Produzione) (Annuale) 002

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2021-05-29__ Italia - IPP (Indice dei Prezzi di Produzione) (Annuale) 003


Istat. Industrial and construction producer prices

«In April 2021, compared with the previous month, industrial producer prices increased by 1.1%. On domestic market producer prices increased by 1.2%, on non-domestic market they increased by 0.9%.

Over the last three months, compared to the previous three months, industrial producer prices increased by 2.6% (+2.9% for the domestic market, +1.9% for the non-domestic market).

In April 2021, compared with April 2020, industrial producer prices increased by 6.5% (+7.9% on domestic market, +3.1% on foreign market).

In April 2021, construction producer prices of Residential buildings and non-residential buildings increased by 0.7% on monthly basis and by 2.3% on annual basis; construction producer prices of Roads and railways increased by 0.6% compared with the previous month and increased by 2.2% on annual basis.

Over the last three months, compared to the previous three months, construction producer prices increased by 0.9% for Residential buildings and non-residential buildings and by 1.0% for Roads and railways.»

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo

Germania. Aprile21. Prezzi dell’Import +10.3%, energetici +101.3%, elettricità +209.6%, aprile21su aprile20. – Destatis.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-30.

2021-05-29__ Germania - Indice dei prezzi all'Importazione (Annuale) 001

In sintesi.

– Import prices +10.3% on the same month a year earlier

– In March 2021 and in February 2021 the annual rates of change were +6.9% and +1.4%, respectively

– Energy imports were 101.3% more expensive in April 2021 than in April 2020

– the price of electricity increased significantly by 209.6%

– Export prices +3.3% on the same month a year earlier

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Ad un aumento dei prezzi di importazione e della energia corrisponde un congruo aumento dei costi di produzione. E così facendo, la stagflazione si dispiega.

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Destatis. Import prices in April 2021: +10.3% on April 2020

Pressrelease #253 from 28 May 2021

                         Import prices, April 2021

+1.4% on the previous month

+10.3% on the same month a year earlier

                         Export prices, April 2021

+0.8% on the previous month

+3.3% on the same month a year earlier

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WIESBADEN – As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the index of import prices increased by 10.3% in April 2021 compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. This has been the highest year-on-year-change since December 2010 (+10.3%). In March 2021 and in February 2021 the annual rates of change were +6.9% and +1.4%, respectively. From March 2021 to April 2021 the index rose by 1.4%.

                         High price increase mainly caused by the energy price development

Energy imports were 101.3% more expensive in April 2021 than in April 2020. This high rate of annual change derives from the very low prices in April 2020. This increase is due to the extremely low price level of the comparative month (base effect). In April 2020, demand had reached its lowest point, caused by the corona crisis, with a strong surplus of supply at the same time. The largest influence on the year-on-year rate of energy price increase had crude oil with a plus of 198.0%, mineral oil products with a plus of 76.6 % and natural gas with a plus of 57.6 %. In addition, the price of electricity increased significantly by 209.6%.

The index of import prices, excluding crude oil and mineral oil products, increased by 6.0% in April 2021 compared with April 2020 and in comparison with March 2021 it rose by 1.5%.

The index of export prices increased by 3.3% in April 2021 compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. This has been the highest year-on-year-change since May 2011 (+3.4%). In March 2021 and in February 2021 the annual rates of change were +2.2% and +0.7%, respectively. From March 2021 to April 2021 the index rose by 0.8%.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo

Francia. 2021Q1. Pil -4.7%, Consumi -6.8%, Exports -9.9%, comparati sul 2019Q4. – Insee.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-29.

2021-05-29__ Insee 001

«Warning

Given the strong economic fluctuations in recent quarters, evolutions from Q4 2019 may be considered as reflecting the activity better than quarterly fluctuations. Tables have therefore been duplicated to show both quarterly evolutions (Q/Q-1) and evolutions from Q4 2019

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In sintesi.

– [GDP] It stood 4.7% below its level in Q4 2019, which was the last quarter before the Covid-19 crisis

– Households’ consumption expenditure …. remained well below its pre-crisis level (-6.8% compared to Q4 2019)

– Imports were thus 6.9% below their pre-crisis level

– exports remained further away (-9.9%)

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Il National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies for Metropolitan France and Overseas France (Insee) ha pubblicato il Report

GDP was almost stable in Q1 2021 (-0.1%), the purchasing power of GDHI fell (-1.0%) but remained above its pre-crisis level

«In Q1 2021, gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms* fell slightly:  -0.1% after -1.5% in Q4 2020. It stood 4.7% below its level in Q4 2019, which was the last quarter before the Covid-19 crisis.

Households’ consumption expenditure was almost stable (+0.1% after -5.6%) and remained well below its pre-crisis level (-6.8% compared to Q4 2019). Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) increased slightly (+0.2% after +1.7%) and was closer to its pre-crisis level (-2.3%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventories contributed by +0.1 points to GDP growth this quarter.

Imports remained relatively dynamic (+1.1% after +2.2%), while exports fell slightly (-0.2% after +4.9%). Imports were thus 6.9% below their pre-crisis level, while exports remained further away (-9.9%). Overall, the external balance contributed negatively to GDP growth: -0.4 points, after +0.7 points. Conversely, changes in inventories made a positive contribution to GDP growth (+0.2 points after +0.6 points).»

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«Warning

Given the strong economic fluctuations in recent quarters, evolutions from Q4 2019 may be considered as reflecting the activity better than quarterly fluctuations. Tables have therefore been duplicated to show both quarterly evolutions (Q/Q-1) and evolutions from Q4 2019.»

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Germania. Aprile21. Carburanti +24.8% aprile21 su aprile20.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-28.

2021-05-28__ Germania Petrolio 001

In sintesi.

– the prices of supergrade petrol increased by roughly a quarter (+24.8%) in April 2021 compared with the same month a year earlier

– diesel fuel prices climbed 19.5%

– Consumers have faced above-average increases in all motor fuel prices (April 2021: +23.3% on April 2020)

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«Since January 2021, both the end of the temporary reduction of value added tax and the introduction of the CO2 charge have had an upward effect on motor fuel prices»

«Within the scope of CO2 pricing, 25 euros per tonne of CO2 have been charged on climate-damaging fossil fuels since 1 January 2021»

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Le ambizioni ecologiche tedesche hanno un ben preciso costo.

In questo caso, un aumento di tal fatta del costo dei carburanti si rifletterà sui costi al consumatore di tutte le merci che sono smistate con trasporto gommato, riverberando in tal modo tutti gli oneri.

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Destatis. Fuel prices on the rise: supergrade petrol +25% and diesel +20% in April 2021 year on year.

                         Pressrelease #N 034 from 26 May 2021

– End of the temporary VAT reduction and introduction of CO2 pricing have an upward effect on prices

– Base effect has an additional upward effect on the year-on-year rates of price increase

– Import prices for crude oil in March 2021 back on pre-crisis level

– Crude oil imports in 2020 at lowest level since 1992

Wiesbaden – Drivers are noticing that the prices at the petrol stations have gone up. There are a variety of reasons for this, ranging from the effects of the Coronavirus crisis to the CO2 charge. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reports that the prices of supergrade petrol increased by roughly a quarter (+24.8%) in April 2021 compared with the same month a year earlier, while diesel fuel prices climbed 19.5% and those of liquefied petroleum gas rose by 14.2% in the same period. Since January 2021, both the end of the temporary reduction of value added tax and the introduction of the CO2 charge have had an upward effect on motor fuel prices. Within the scope of CO2 pricing, 25 euros per tonne of CO2 have been charged on climate-damaging fossil fuels since 1 January 2021. Consumers have faced above-average increases in all motor fuel prices (April 2021: +23.3% on April 2020). For comparison: the change rate of the consumer price index as a whole was +2.0% in the same period.