Pubblicato in: Armamenti, Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime

Russia. Sempre più probabile una escalation severa. Centrali elettriche ukraine kaputt.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-09-21.

2022-09-17__Ukraine Blackout 001

Credersi che i russi, che sono slavi, ragionino e si comportino secondo i canoni occidentali sarebbe un grande errore.

I mongoli diventano temibili quando si ritiravano.

È tutto da vedere se gli ukraini siano avanzati oppure i russi si siano ritirati per intrappolarli. Infatti gli ukraini si sono trascinati tutti gli armamenti sofisticati loro dati dall’occidente, ma questi senza corrente elettrica diventano inservibili.

Russia. Blackout completo nella Ukraina dell’est, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia e Odesa.

I media occidentali non ne parlano. Ma il blackout esiste.

* * * * * * *

«Living with no electricity might not be as easy as you may think and you not realise how many items in your home rely on it to function. Electrically managed technologies supply us with many things, such as heat, food, water, transport, energy, entertainment and communication. Electricity allows us to power the technology we use every day. If you plan on trying to live without electricity, you will no longer be able to turn on the central heating in your home, use the toilet, preserve food in your fridge/freezer or have clean running water.» [EC4U]

«Russia has already launched intense shelling on the Kharkiv region, starting Sunday night, leaving it without electricity and water.»

«The centre of Ukraine’s second city Kharkiv was plunged into darkness on Sunday evening by an electricity blackout, a Reuters reporter said. The cause and extent of the blackout in the northeastern city were not immediately clear. There were also unconfirmed social media reports of blackouts in other places and regions.»  [Reuters]

* * * * * * *

La Russia ha mantenuto un riserbo sulle sue ultime sconfitte in Ucraina e gli strateghi temono che Mosca possa cercare di punire severamente Kiev per le sue vittorie sul campo di battaglia nel tentativo di salvare la faccia. Ora si pensa a una potenziale rappresaglia russa: il ministro della Difesa ucraino Oleksii Reznikov ha dichiarato al Financial Times di aspettarsi un contrattacco. Una controffensiva libera un territorio e poi bisogna controllarlo ed essere pronti a difenderlo, ha detto Reznikov, aggiungendo: Certo, dobbiamo essere preoccupati, questa guerra ci preoccupa da anni. La Russia ha già lanciato intensi bombardamenti sulla regione di Kharkiv, a partire da domenica notte, lasciandola senza elettricità e acqua.

Inoltre, aumenta la volontà russa di infliggere agli ucraini una punizione simile a quella di Grozny, sia in termini di infliggere vittime di massa all’Ucraina attraverso un maggior numero di bersagli nei centri urbani, sia, nel peggiore dei casi, utilizzando armi chimiche o addirittura nucleari tattiche sul campo di battaglia per seminare il panico di massa. Di conseguenza, Putin si trova ad affrontare una crescente pressione per rispondere a dinamiche sempre più sfavorevoli sul fronte, che potrebbero includere mosse di escalation o richieste di avviare trattative per il cessate il fuoco.

Oppure un’escalation con mobilitazione di massa e armi di distruzione di massa (WMD), o forse il livellamento indiscriminato delle città ucraine in stile siriano.

* * * * * * *

«Russia has been tight-lipped about its latest defeats in Ukraine, and strategists fear Moscow could look to punish Kyiv severely for its victories on the battlefield in an effort to save face. Now thoughts are turning to potential Russian retaliation, with Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov telling the Financial Times he was expecting a counterattack. “A counteroffensive liberates territory and after that you have to control it and be ready to defend it, Reznikov said, adding, Of course, we have to be worried, this war has worried us for years. Russia has already launched intense shelling on the Kharkiv region, starting Sunday night, leaving it without electricity and water.»

«Further, it makes Russian willingness to mete out Grozny-like ‘punishment’ onto the Ukrainians higher, both in terms of inflicting mass casualties on Ukraine through greater targeting of urban centers, as well as, in the worst case, using chemical or even tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield to sow mass panic. As a result, Putin faces growing pressure to respond to increasingly unfavorable dynamics on the frontline, which might include either escalatory moves or calls to start ceasefire talks»

«Or escalate with mass mobilisation and WMD [weapon of mass destruction], or perhaps Syrian style indiscriminate levelling of Ukrainian cities»

* * * * * * *


Russia’s defeats in Ukraine have strategists worried about Moscow’s next move

– Strategists fear Moscow could look to punish Kyiv severely for its victories on the battlefield in an effort to save face.

– Kyiv’s forces launched a massive counterattack in the northeast of the country, reclaiming thousands of kilometers of Russian-occupied land over the last few days.

– “Moscow faces a stark choice now I think: face humiliating defeat in Ukraine … and sue for peace,” strategist Timothy Ash said. “Or escalate with mass mobilisation and WMD [weapon of mass destruction].”

* * * * * * *

Russia has been tight-lipped about its latest defeats in Ukraine, and strategists fear Moscow could look to punish Kyiv severely for its victories on the battlefield in an effort to save face.

Kyiv’s forces launched a massive counterattack in the northeast of the country, reclaiming thousands of kilometers of Russian-occupied land over the last few days.

Now thoughts are turning to potential Russian retaliation, with Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov telling the Financial Times he was expecting a counterattack. “A counteroffensive liberates territory and after that you have to control it and be ready to defend it,” Reznikov said, adding, “Of course, we have to be worried, this war has worried us for years.”

Russia has already launched intense shelling on the Kharkiv region, starting Sunday night, leaving it without electricity and water. Ukraine’s deputy defense minister told Reuters it was too early to say Ukraine had full control of the area.

Close followers of the Kremlin say President Vladimir Putin is likely weighing his options now.

“The military story for the Kremlin is becoming worse,” Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group president, said in a note Monday. “To the extent that continues, it pressures Putin into calling for a mobilization — likely a partial one but still a politically and socially costly move for the Russian president at home, that will force him into declaring war with Ukraine, and tacitly admitting that Russia is facing military problems,” he said in emailed comments. Russia has insisted on calling its invasion of Ukraine a “special military operation,” not a war.

“Further, it makes Russian willingness to mete out Grozny-like ‘punishment’ onto the Ukrainians higher, both in terms of inflicting mass casualties on Ukraine through greater targeting of urban centers, as well as, in the worst case, using chemical or even tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield to sow mass panic,” Bremmer added.

“If there’s a likely near-term change in the russia war going forward, it’s escalatory and not a negotiated breakthrough.”

                         Frustration rising

Ukraine’s victories on the battlefield in recent days, and its ability to reclaim dozens of towns and villages in the Kharkiv region, puts Russia on the back foot. It is now scrambling to defend its territory in Donetsk and Luhansk, where two pro-Russian “republics” are located, in the Donbas in eastern Ukraine.

Russian forces are widely believed to have been taken by surprise by Ukraine’s counterattack in the northeast of the country and were heavily outnumbered. There were signs that Russian forces had beaten a hasty retreat, with stores of equipment and ammunition abandoned.

Ahead of these counterattacks in the northeast, Kyiv had heavily promoted a counteroffensive in the south of Ukraine — leading Russia to redeploy troops there.

On Monday, the Kremlin’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, said Russia’s aims in Ukraine remain the same — to “liberate” the Donbas — and insisted that fighting would continue.

There are rumblings of discontent in Russia, however, with even staunch supporters of the Kremlin questioning the war in public forums, including on state-run TV.

“We’ve been told that everything is going according to plan. Does anyone really believe that six months ago the plan was to be leaving [the city of] Balakliya, repelling a counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region and failing to take over Kharkiv?” usually pro-Putin political expert Viktor Olevich said on the state-run NTV channel, the Moscow Times reported.

Another public figure, former lawmaker Boris Nadezhdin, said that Russia would not win the war if it continued to fight as it was, and said that there needed to be “either mobilization and full-scale war, or we get out.”

Analysts at global risk consultancy Teneo noted in emailed comments Monday evening that military losses and the humiliation of Russian troops “pose risks to President Vladimir Putin’s regime, as domestic criticism of the conduct of the so-called special military operation is mounting from various sides.”

“As a result, Putin faces growing pressure to respond to increasingly unfavorable dynamics on the frontline, which might include either escalatory moves or calls to start ceasefire talks,” they added.

                         Putin’s ‘stark choice’

Putin’s regime now faces a difficult choice; the war is dragging on and its undersupplied forces are likely becoming demoralized as they come under pressure from Ukraine’s well-organized and well-armed army.

“Moscow faces a stark choice now I think: face humiliating defeat in Ukraine — which seems inevitable given the current troop force deployments, supply chains and momentum on Ukraine’s side — and sue for peace,” Timothy Ash, senior emerging markets sovereign strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, said in a note Monday.

“Or escalate with mass mobilisation and WMD [weapon of mass destruction], or perhaps Syrian style indiscriminate levelling of Ukrainian cities.”

Ash said Putin had likely balked at the mass mobilization option, which would put Russia on a war footing and see the conscription of many of its citizens. The “risk is that they come home in body bags and cause domestic social and political unrest in Russia,” he said, but added that Putin was also unlikely to resort to unconventional weapons — such as WMDs.

“Putin had the chance and failed to pull the trigger as he knows these are only really deterrents and once he does unleash them we are in a whole new ball game, risk of World War 3, and a chain of events which will be very difficult to manage but where he is clearly seen as the aggressor/mad guy and loses most of his friends internationally, including China, et al,” Ash added.

He said that, after what he expected would be intensive airstrikes in Ukraine, Putin might attempt to begin “serious” peace talks. “But he will have to hurry up as the ground in Ukraine, and possibly even Moscow, is shifting quickly under his feet,” Ash noted.

“At this stage a total collapse of Russian forces across Ukraine is entirely possible – including that held before Feb. 24, including Crimea, and even talk about potential splits in Moscow and risks to Putin’s stay in power. Watch this space.”

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Geopolitica Europea, Materie Prime, Senza categoria

Francia. Per due anni non esporterà energia elettrica in Italia.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-09-20.

Lavrov Putin che ridono 011

«Nuclear power output by EDF is set to fall to the lowest in more than three decades as it grapples with maintenance for its aging plants, turning France, traditionally Europe’s biggest electricity exporting country, into a net importer»

«La produzione di energia nucleare da parte di EDF è destinata a scendere al minimo in più di tre decenni, mentre è alle prese con la manutenzione dei suoi impianti obsoleti, trasformando la Francia, tradizionalmente il più grande Paese esportatore di elettricità in Europa, in un importatore netto»

* * * * * * *

La Francia potrebbe imporre uno stop di due anni alle esportazioni di energia elettrica verso l’Italia, mentre Electricite de France SA, controllata dallo Stato, lotta contro la diminuzione della produzione delle sue centrali nucleari, aggravando una crisi energetica sempre più profonda mentre l’Europa si avvia verso l’inverno.

Un portavoce di EDF ha smentito la notizia, affermando che l’azienda francese controllata dallo Stato non ha inviato alcuna lettera alle autorità italiane. Una portavoce dell’operatore della rete elettrica francese RTE, che è controllata al 50.1% da EDF ma il cui statuto ne garantisce l’indipendenza.

La produzione di energia nucleare da parte di EDF è destinata a scendere al minimo in più di tre decenni, mentre è alle prese con la manutenzione dei suoi impianti obsoleti, trasformando la Francia, tradizionalmente il più grande paese esportatore di elettricità in Europa, in un importatore netto.

L’Italia importa circa il 13% della sua energia elettrica, secondo l’operatore nazionale Terna. La Francia rappresenta circa il 5% del consumo annuale del Paese.

* * * * * * *

«France may impose a two-year halt on power exports to Italy as state-controlled Electricite de France SA battles dwindling output from its nuclear plants, aggravating a deepening energy crisis as Europe moves into winter.»

«A spokesman for EDF denied the report, saying the French state-controlled utility hasn’t sent a letter to the Italian authorities. A spokeswoman for French power grid operator RTE, which is 50.1% owned by EDF but whose statutes ensure its independence»

«Nuclear power output by EDF is set to fall to the lowest in more than three decades as it grapples with maintenance for its aging plants, turning France, traditionally Europe’s biggest electricity exporting country, into a net importer»

«Italy imports about 13% of its power, according to national operator Terna. France accounts for about 5% of the country’s annual consumption.»

* * * * * * *


France Mulls Italy Power Export Halt as Nuclear Output Drops

– EDF Raises Earnings Hit From Output Drop to $29 Billion (1) As Europe heads into a difficult winter the energy shortages are testing the solidarity between countries.

– France’s potential energy cut to its Italian neighbors signal that national interest may prevail if the crisis intensifies.

– Nuclear energy output by the French state-controlled utility is set to fall to the lowest in more than three decades as it grapples with maintenance for its aging plants, turning what is traditionally Europe’s biggest electricity exporting country into a net.

* * * * * * *

France may impose a two-year halt on power exports to Italy as state-controlled Electricite de France SA battles dwindling output from its nuclear plants, aggravating a deepening energy crisis as Europe moves into winter.

Italy is working on plans to compensate for any cut in supply after receiving a written notification about the possible halt, a spokeswoman for the Italian ministry of energy transition said on Saturday, confirming a report by newspaper La Repubblica.

A spokesman for EDF denied the report, saying the French state-controlled utility “hasn’t sent a letter” to the Italian authorities. A spokeswoman for French power grid operator RTE, which is 50.1% owned by EDF but whose statutes ensure its independence, had no immediate comment. France’s finance ministry declined to comment.

Nuclear power output by EDF is set to fall to the lowest in more than three decades as it grapples with maintenance for its aging plants, turning France, traditionally Europe’s biggest electricity exporting country, into a net importer. The shortages are exacerbating an energy crunch across Europe after Russia cut its gas supplies to the continent.

Read More: EDF Raises Earnings Hit From Output Drop to $29 Billion 

As Europe heads into a difficult winter, the power shortages are testing the solidarity between countries. France’s potential power cut to its neighbor signals that national interest may prevail if the crisis intensifies. 

Earlier this month, Italy said it was targeting a reduction in natural gas consumption this winter by increasing the use of coal, turning down heating across the country, and pushing to change consumer behavior.

Italy imports about 13% of its power, according to national operator Terna. France accounts for about 5% of the country’s annual consumption.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Materie Prime, Regno Unito, Unione Europea

Regno Unito e blocco europeo. 500 miliardi Usd in sussidi energetici. Denaro bruciato.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-09-20.

2022-09-13__ Truss Pelosi 001

Il problema è di una semplicità stupefacente.

I prezzi degli energetici stanno salendo strozzando i sistemi economici per la banalissima constatazione che natural gas e petrolio sono disponibili in quote del tutto insufficienti per alimentare i sistemi economici. È una situazione che genera rincari sempre più consistenti.

L’unico provvedimento risolutivo sarebbe la rimozione delle sanzioni alla importazione degli energetici russi. Cessare la guerra portata alla Russia sarebbe un provvedimento del tutto ragionevole. Ma così non è.

Ma Regno Unito e blocco europeo sono al momento retti da formazioni politiche liberal, che quindi agiscono secondo ideologia, non secondo ragione.

Ecco come conseguenza lo scatenarsi forsennato di sussidi di ogni genere e tipo. Manovra questa che obbliga la banca centrale ad adoperarsi per cercare di salvaguardare i debiti pubblici a discapito della lotta alla inflazione.

Orbene, Regno Unito e blocco europeo stanno crepando proprio sotto il macigno della inflazione.

* * * * * * *

Regno Unito. Prodotto Interno Lordo (PIL) britannico su base mensile -0.6%; IPC, Indice dei Prezzi al Consumo, annuale 10.1% ; andamento dell’Indice dei prezzi di produzione annuale +22.6%; vendite al dettaglio principali annuale -3.0%; immatricolazioni auto annuali -24.3%; TTF natural gas futures 207.09 eur/MWh; Natural Gas UK GBP (GBp/thm).

* * *

Regno Unito. Locali notturni. Dai 3,000 del 2005 agli attuali 1,130. Inflazione.

Regno Unito. La Russia non ha bisogno di combatterlo: Truss lo sta già distruggendo.

Hot meals or warm classrooms? UK schools face difficult choices as energy crisis bites

Liz Truss’s cabinet is Britain’s first without white man in top jobs

Truss needs to put her gaffe-prone days as foreign secretary behind her if she wants international respect

Regno Unito. Cineworld ha presentato istanza di fallimento. 8.9 mld Usd.

Germania. Le aziende di servizi pubblici locali di proprietà dei comuni stanno fallendo.

Blocco europeo. Energia elettrica. Germania €700 a megawatt-ora, Francia €840.

Germania. Energia a €540 per megawatt ora. Industrie chiudono o fuggono.

Germania. Consumatori imbufaliti dalla Shrinkflation. Inflazione mascherata.

Germania. Tre mesi alla crisi invernale del gas. Poi Kaputt lei e la Europa.

Germania. Blocco del gas russo. Effetto domino dei fallimenti. Implosione della Germania.

Germania. Gas russo. Le banche tedesche parlano chiaramente di default.

Russia. Porta la Germania alla implosione. E con essa tutto il blocco europeo.

Blocco europeo. Le fonderie dello alluminio chiudono i battenti. von der Leyen.

Sex Toys. Un mercato da 33.6 miliardi che vende quasi 70 milioni di pezzi.

India. È diventata la sesta economia mondiale e sorpassa il Regno Unito che retrocede.

India. È diventata il maggiore importatore di petrolio russo.

India. Non appoggia bensì si dissocia dalle sanzioni alla Russia.

India. Prosegue tranquilla a comprare petrolio dalla Russia. Non accetta le sanzioni di Joe Biden.

Regno Unito. I pub servono acqua e molti sono falliti.

* * * * * * *

Il prezzo della guerra: Regno Unito e UE gettano 500 miliardi di dollari in sussidi energetici

Il Regno Unito ha confermato giovedì i piani per sovvenzionare le bollette energetiche di famiglie e imprese, unendosi ad altri governi europei in una costosa corsa per proteggere le loro economie dal congelamento di quest’inverno, quando la Russia taglierà le forniture di gas. Secondo gli analisti, il piano britannico potrebbe costare fino a 150 miliardi di sterline (172 miliardi di dollari). Se si aggiungono i recenti annunci simili di Germania, Austria e altri governi dell’UE, il conto della regione per far fronte all’aumento dei prezzi supera già i 500 miliardi di euro. A partire da ottobre, la famiglia tipo del Regno Unito non pagherà più di 2,500 sterline (2,880 dollari) per l’energia per i prossimi due anni. Poiché il programma non si rivolge specificamente ai più bisognosi, ma è piuttosto ampio, sarà relativamente costoso.

Il pacchetto di sostegno per le famiglie potrebbe costare circa 100 miliardi di sterline (oltre il 4% del PIL britannico). Ulteriori misure per le imprese potrebbero portare il prezzo totale a circa 150 miliardi di sterline. I cittadini britannici hanno un disperato bisogno di sostegno. La bolletta energetica media annuale delle famiglie è già aumentata del 54% quest’anno, arrivando a 1,971 sterline (2,263 dollari). Senza il nuovo piano di contenimento dei prezzi, le bollette avrebbero superato le 3,500 sterline a ottobre e ancora di più all’inizio del prossimo anno. Le imprese avrebbero dovuto far fronte ad aumenti ancora più consistenti e molte di esse avevano avvertito che non sarebbero sopravvissute all’inverno.

Questo piano potrebbe spaventare gli investitori, già preoccupati che le finanze del Paese siano su un percorso insostenibile. Un forte indebitamento potrebbe convincere gli investitori a scaricare la sterlina, che è già scesa al livello più basso degli ultimi 37 anni, facendo salire ulteriormente i prezzi.

* * * * * * *

«Price of war: UK and EU throw $500 billion at energy subsidies»

«The United Kingdom on Thursday confirmed plans to subsidize energy bills for households and businesses, joining other European governments in a costly race to protect their economies from freezing up this winter as Russia cuts off supplies of gas. The UK plan could cost as much as £150 billion ($172 billion), analysts said. Add that to recent similar announcements by Germany, Austria and other EU governments, and the region’s bill for drawing the sting of rising prices is already more than €500 billion ($500 billion). Starting in October, the typical UK household will pay no more than £2,500 ($2,880) for their energy for the next two years. Because the program does not specifically target the most needy but is rather broad-based, it will be relatively expensive»

«The support package for households may cost around £100 billion (over 4% of UK GDP). Further measures for businesses may take the total price tag to around £150 billion. Britons desperately need the support. Already, the average annual household energy bill has increased by 54% this year to £1,971 ($2,263). Without the new plan to cap prices, bills would have soared above £3,500 in October, and even higher earlier next year. Businesses were facing even greater increases and many had warned they would not survive the winter.»

«That plan could spook investors already concerned that the country’s finances are on an unsustainable path. Heavy borrowing could convince investors to dump the pound, which has already dropped to its lowest level in 37 years, further driving up prices.»

* * * * * * *


Price of war: UK and EU throw $500 billion at energy subsidies

London (CNN Business)The United Kingdom on Thursday confirmed plans to subsidize energy bills for households and businesses, joining other European governments in a costly race to protect their economies from freezing up this winter as Russia cuts off supplies of gas.

The UK plan could cost as much as £150 billion ($172 billion), analysts said. Add that to recent similar announcements by Germany, Austria and other EU governments, and the region’s bill for drawing the sting of rising prices is already more than €500 billion ($500 billion).

Starting in October, the typical UK household will pay no more than £2,500 ($2,880) for their energy for the next two years. The government will also support businesses, charities and public sector organizations with their energy costs for the next six months, and possibly longer.

“Because the program does not specifically target the most needy but is rather broad-based, it will be relatively expensive,” said Salomon Fiedler, an analyst at Berenberg bank.

“The support package for households may cost around £100 billion (over 4% of UK GDP). Further measures for businesses may take the total price tag to around £150 billion,” he added.

Britons desperately need the support. Already, the average annual household energy bill has increased by 54% this year to £1,971 ($2,263). Without the new plan to cap prices, bills would have soared above £3,500 in October, and even higher earlier next year. Businesses were facing even greater increases and many had warned they would not survive the winter.

“The price of inaction would have been far greater than the cost of this intervention,” finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng said in a statement. He is due to reveal the cost later this month.

Announcing the measures in parliament, UK Prime Minister Liz Truss again ruled out imposing a new “windfall tax” on the bumper profits of energy companies to pay for the measures. Instead, her government will likely have to increase government borrowing to subsidize bills.

That plan could spook investors already concerned that the country’s finances are on an unsustainable path. Heavy borrowing could convince investors to dump the pound, which has already dropped to its lowest level in 37 years, further driving up prices.

                         A $500 billion intervention

Bruegel, a think tank based in Brussels, said last month that the European Union and United Kingdom had already committed €280 billion ($280 billion) to protect consumers from eye-watering energy prices.

The analysis included spending commitments made between September 2021 — when global energy prices started to rise — and July this year. They include measures taken to help with other cost-of-living pressures.

But the bulk of the support has come since late February, when Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine, sending natural gas and oil prices soaring, Giovanni Sgaravatti, a research analyst at Bruegel told CNN Business.

On Sunday, the German government announced a €65 billion ($65 billion) package to help households and businesses meet their energy costs. Austria announced Wednesday that it would freeze electricity prices from December until June 2024. Reuters reported that the plan would cost up to €4 billion ($4 billion)

Added together, Europe and the United Kingdom have so far promised to spend more than €500 billion ($500 billion) to subsidize bills.

But governments know that more needs to be done as its energy standoff with Russia heats up.

On Friday, EU energy ministers will hold an emergency meeting. On the table will be a price cap on Russian natural gas, breaking the link between the price of gas and electricity, and a mandatory target for countries to use less power, in addition to other measures.

“We must cut Russia’s revenues, which Putin uses to finance this atrocious war against Ukraine,” EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told reporters on Wednesday.

Pubblicato in: Agricoltura, Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Materie Prime, Regno Unito

Anidride carbonica passa da 250 euro per tonnellata agli attuali 3,350. Birrerie belghe al fallimento.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-09-18.

2022-09-04__ Svezia 001

«That in turn hit Huyghe’s supplier Nippon Gases, which demanded 3,350 euros ($3,398) a ton for CO2 instead of 250 euros previously»

«Il blocco ha colpito a sua volta il fornitore di Huyghe, Nippon Gases, che ha chiesto 3,350 euro (3,398 dollari) a tonnellata per la CO2 invece dei 250 euro precedenti»

* * *

Regno Unito. I prezzi della anidride carbonica salgono del 500%. Impatto generalizzato.

Regno Unito. Pub. La pinta di birra chiara è salita da 3.96 ad un massimo di 8 sterline.

* * * * * * *

Gli effetti a catena minacciano il produttore di birra belga e le serre tedesche. l produttore belga della birra Delirium Tremens rischia concretamente di interrompere la produzione per la prima volta in più di un secolo, poiché la crisi energetica europea crea effetti a catena inaspettati in tutta la regione. Dai pomodori tedeschi al pane svedese, la stretta della Russia sulle forniture di gas sta iniziando a colpire settori che vanno ben oltre i servizi pubblici e le industrie ad alta intensità energetica. Le ricadute sulle forniture di cibo e bevande si intensificheranno probabilmente con l’abbassamento delle temperature e la necessità di riscaldamento delle famiglie.

Dai pomodori tedeschi al pane svedese, la stretta sulle forniture di gas da parte della Russia sta iniziando a colpire settori che vanno ben oltre le utilities e le industrie ad alta intensità energetica. La ricaduta sulle forniture di cibo e bevande probabilmente si intensificherà con l’abbassamento delle temperature e la necessità di riscaldamento delle famiglie, costringendo imprese e consumatori a decisioni difficili.

Il birrificio Huyghe, situato nel villaggio belga di Melle, ha preso in considerazione la possibilità di chiudere la produzione a causa dell’aumento di 13 volte del prezzo dell’anidride carbonica liquida, utilizzata per rendere frizzanti le birre.

L’Unione Europea sta cercando di arginare la crisi causata dai tagli al gas della Russia, che lo scorso anno ha fornito circa il 40% della domanda di carburante del blocco.

I problemi del birrificio belga sono stati innescati da una catena di disgrazie che illustrano quanto sia interconnessa l’economia europea. Il gigante norvegese dei fertilizzanti Yara International ASA ha interrotto la produzione di ammoniaca in un impianto nei Paesi Bassi. Questo a sua volta ha colpito il fornitore di Huyghe, Nippon Gases, che ha chiesto 3,350 euro (3,398 dollari) a tonnellata per la CO2 invece dei 250 euro precedenti.

Carlsberg A/S ha dichiarato che potrebbe dover ridurre significativamente o interrompere la produzione di birra in Polonia a causa della carenza di CO2 liquida. L’anidride carbonica è una parte vitale dell’industria alimentare. Viene utilizzata per stordire il bestiame da macello, negli imballaggi per prolungare la durata di conservazione e nel ghiaccio secco per mantenere i prodotti congelati durante il trasporto. Il produttore tedesco di pomodori, fragole e peperoni si affida a SKW Piesteritz GmbH per il calore e la CO2, ma è rimasto a piedi quando il più grande produttore tedesco di ammoniaca e urea ha interrotto la produzione la scorsa settimana.

* * * * * * *

«Ripple effects threaten Belgian brewer, German greenhouses. he Belgian brewer of Delirium Tremens beer is facing a real risk of halting production for the first time in more than a century as Europe’s energy crisis creates unexpected ripple effects across the region. From German tomatoes to Swedish bread, Russia’s squeeze on gas supplies is starting to hit sectors well beyond utilities and energy-intensive industries. The spillover on food and drink supplies will likely intensify as temperatures drop and households require heating»

«From German tomatoes to Swedish bread, Russia’s squeeze on gas supplies is starting to hit sectors well beyond utilities and energy-intensive industries. The spillover on food and drink supplies will likely intensify as temperatures drop and households require heating, forcing businesses and consumers into tough decisions.

Brewery Huyghe, located in the Belgian village of Melle, considered shutting production because of a 13-fold surge in the price of liquid carbon-dioxide, which it uses to make beers bubbly»

«The European Union is trying to stem the crisis caused by Russia’s gas cuts, which last year supplied about 40% of the bloc’s demand for the fuel.»

«The Belgian brewery’s woes were triggered by a chain of misfortunes that illustrate how interconnected Europe’s economy is. Norwegian fertilizer giant Yara International ASA halted ammonia output at a plant in the Netherlands. That in turn hit Huyghe’s supplier Nippon Gases, which demanded 3,350 euros ($3,398) a ton for CO2 instead of 250 euros previously»

«Carlsberg A/S said it may need to “significantly reduce” or halt beer production in Poland due to a shortage of liquid CO2. Carbon dioxide is a vital part of the food industry. It’s used to stun livestock for slaughter, as well as in packaging to extend shelf life and for dry ice to keep items frozen during transport. The German grower of tomatoes, strawberries and peppers relies on SKW Piesteritz GmbH for heat as well as CO2, but was left stranded when Germany’s biggest producer of ammonia and urea halted output last week.»

* * * * * * *


From Beer to Tomatoes, Europe’s Energy Crisis Is Spilling Over

– Ripple effects threaten Belgian brewer, German greenhouses

– Widening fallout adds pressure on authorities to stem crunch

* * * * * * *

The Belgian brewer of Delirium Tremens beer is facing a real risk of halting production for the first time in more than a century as Europe’s energy crisis creates unexpected ripple effects across the region. 

From German tomatoes to Swedish bread, Russia’s squeeze on gas supplies is starting to hit sectors well beyond utilities and energy-intensive industries. The spillover on food and drink supplies will likely intensify as temperatures drop and households require heating, forcing businesses and consumers into tough decisions.

Brewery Huyghe, located in the Belgian village of Melle, considered shutting production because of a 13-fold surge in the price of liquid carbon-dioxide, which it uses to make beers bubbly. It’s hoping a court, which is expected to rule on Wednesday, will thwart its supplier’s force majeure. 

Alain De Laet, owner of the family-run company, said his CO2 inventories could run out this week and force a stoppage for the first time since 1906, unless deliveries from a temporary supplier come through.

“I believe it when I get it in the brewery,” he said.

The European Union is trying to stem the crisis caused by Russia’s gas cuts, which last year supplied about 40% of the bloc’s demand for the fuel. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Wednesday is set to propose a mandatory target to cut power use — a step toward rationing — along with measures to funnel energy-company profits to struggling consumers.

The Belgian brewery’s woes were triggered by a chain of misfortunes that illustrate how interconnected Europe’s economy is. Norwegian fertilizer giant Yara International ASA halted ammonia output at a plant in the Netherlands. That in turn hit Huyghe’s supplier Nippon Gases, which demanded 3,350 euros ($3,398) a ton for CO2 instead of 250 euros previously.

“Currently running production based on gas in Europe is not profitable,” Tiffanie Stephani, Yara’s vice president of European government relations, said via email. “We continue to monitor the situation and adapt our production.” 

Nippon declined to comment citing the ongoing court case.

Huyghe isn’t alone. Carlsberg A/S said it may need to “significantly reduce” or halt beer production in Poland due to a shortage of liquid CO2. A handful of other Belgian brewers are also affected by the issue, and concerns over contagion are growing.

“A couple of months ago, the industry worked like a Swiss watch,” said Krishan Maudgal, head of the Belgian Brewers Association. “Because of the new situation with rising gas prices, it has cascaded down the value chain.”

Ammonia, which is produced with natural gas, has been hard hit by the price surge sparked by Russia’s move to slash gas deliveries in retaliation over sanctions related to its invasion of Ukraine. A wave of shutdowns has left at least half of the region’s capacity offline, creating a crunch for fertilizer but also CO2 — a byproduct of the process.

Carbon dioxide is a vital part of the food industry. It’s used to stun livestock for slaughter, as well as in packaging to extend shelf life and for dry ice to keep items frozen during transport. 

British online grocery service Ocado Group Plc said on Tuesday that increased costs for things like dry ice and energy will likely weigh on profits in the fourth quarter, while shoppers tighten their purse strings. The combination signals how difficult it will be for companies to pass on higher expenses as households struggle to fulfill basic needs.

For Wittenberg Gemuese GmbH, the disruption of ammonia production has also meant a loss of the heating and hot water needed to operate its greenhouses. 

The German grower of tomatoes, strawberries and peppers relies on SKW Piesteritz GmbH for heat as well as CO2, but was left stranded when Germany’s biggest producer of ammonia and urea halted output last week.

“Without heating, nothing works here,” said Kevin van IJperen, manager of the facility, which is nearly three times as big as the Pentagon. “We were still lucky as the temperatures were mild in the last week. Had this happened later in the year, we would have had huge losses.”

The outage at SKW, which is in talks over a government bailout, poses other risks for Germany’s economy. The company covers about 40% of Germany’s demand for AdBlue, an additive used to make the exhaust of diesel vehicles less harmful. A shortage could force freight trucks off the road. 

In Sweden, Pagen, one the country’s biggest bakeries, joined other food producers to warn about risks to food supply from surging energy costs and the risks of blackouts. 

A one-second electricity disruption in June impacted Pagen’s production for four weeks, head of communications and sustainability Berith Apelgren told local media, adding that recurring outages would be “mind boggling.”

Back in Belgium, Prime Minister Alexander De Croo has warned that Europe’s economy risks a “full stop” from a domino effect caused by the energy crisis.

“That’s why I think that interventions in the gas market are the core thing,” he said in an interview. “If you do that right a lot of the other things are actually less important, because that’s the driving element.”

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Materie Prime

Svizzera. Entrata in funzione la centrale di pompaggio – turbinaggio di Nant de Drance.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-09-17.

2022-09-12__ Nant de Drance 001

In sintesi.

– È un’opera impressionante: la centrale idroelettrica di Nant de Drance, in Vallese conta sei turbine situate a 600 metri di profondità tra i due bacini di Emosson, sul comune di Finhaut. Nel giro di cinque minuti è in grado di raggiungere la potenza di 900 megawatt.

– L’impianto sfrutta la differenza di quota di circa 300 metri tra le due dighe di Emosson per generare energia grazie a un sistema di pompaggio e turbinaggio. Servirà in particolare a soddisfare l’aumento della domanda di elettricità nelle ore di punta.

– Agisce come una batteria con una capacità di stoccaggio di 20 milioni di chilowattora (kWh) nel lago superiore

– Ogni parte è costituita da una galleria in pressione di ca. 1500 m e da un pozzo verticale profondo 440 m

– Tunnel lunghi quasi 11 km consentono l’accesso senza neve per tutto l’anno agli impianti

* * * * * * *


Centrale pompaggio-turbinaggio Nant de Drance

                  Stabilizzazione della rete di distribuzione della corrente europea e garantire l’approvvigionamento elettrico in Svizzera

La centrale idroelettrica di Nant de Drance è stata concepita con gli obiettivi di sfruttare l’enorme potenziale idroelettrico delle Alpi svizzere, garantendo così la stabilità della rete di distribuzione di corrente elettrica europea e garantire l’approvvigionamento elettrico sul territorio nazionale. La centrale Nant de Drance è una delle centrali di pompaggio e turbinaggio fra le più grandi d’Europa, con una potenza di stoccaggio pari a 24 milioni di m³.

AFRY è stata incaricata dal committente nel 2002 di sviluppare la realizzazione di questo progetto attraverso lo studio di fattibilità, il progetto di massima, il progetto definitivo e il progetto di pubblicazione e tramite la procedura d’appalto di condurlo fino alla fase d’esecuzione. I lavori di costruzione sono iniziati nell’autunno 2008, con AFRY quale progettista generale fino all’autunno 2012. A partire dall’autunno 2012 AFRY ha ripreso diversi ruoli chiave nel progetto. AFRY si è occupata, tra l’altro, del coordinamento tecnico dell’intero progetto, del piano esecutivo, della sorveglianza del progetto, della creazione di un sistema di gestione dei dati, della progettazione e della gestione della costruzione della carpenteria idraulica, dell’elettromeccanica e dell’elettrotecnica, nonché del monitoraggio della diga e della deformazione della valle. L’impianto è stato messo in funzione nell’estate del 2022.

                         Caratteristiche della centrale pompaggio-turbinaggio Nant de Drance

La centrale pompaggio-turbinaggio di Nant de Drance, potenza nominale 900-MW, è stata progettata sfruttando i due bacini esistenti di Vieux Emosson, (lago artificiale superiore) e d’Emosson (lago artificiale inferiore) sulle Alpi svizzere. L’altezza di caduta disponibile tra i due bacini è di 400 m. Il volume del bacino superiore è stato ampliato innalzando di 20 m la diga esistente.

Nant de Drance consiste in un sistema a due corsi d’acqua indipendenti. Ogni parte è costituita da una galleria in pressione di ca. 1500 m e da un pozzo verticale profondo 440 m. Tunnel lunghi quasi 11 km consentono l’accesso senza neve per tutto l’anno agli impianti.

Il complesso sotterraneo della centrale è composto principalmente dalla caverna principale (194x52x32 m), dalla caverna del trasformatore (140x18x15 m) e da tre tunnel d’accesso, di cui il tunnel più lungo è il tunnel d’accesso alla caverna della centrale.

La sua lunghezza è di 5,6 km, è scavato con una TBM per rocce dure con diametro di 9,45 m e una pendenza massima del 12% (accesso possibile anche in inverno). Le sei unità di pompaggio con turbina Francis reversibili verticali di massimo 157 MW ciascuna e i gruppi motore-generatore asincroni verticali di 170 MVA, nonché altri elementi centrali dell’impianto, costituiscono il nucleo della centrale di pompaggio di Nant de Drance.

                         Nant de Drance come progetto del secolo

Con un costo di poco più di 2 miliardi di franchi, il progetto sarà una parte importante della strategia energetica della Svizzera e dell’Europa. Grazie alla sua potenza installata di 900 MW, la centrale sarà in grado di produrre grandi quantità di elettricità o di immagazzinare energia in un tempo molto breve. L’alta flessibilità sarà uno dei principali punti di forza di questo impianto, poiché la quantità volatile di elettricità generata dalle nuove fonti di energia rinnovabile può essere immagazzinata in modo ottimale in questo modo.

                         Elettromeccanica: turbine di pompaggio, valvole a sfera sul lato superiore e inferiore dell’acqua, generatore a motore con convertitore di frequenza, controllore (idraulico e digitale), sistema di raffreddamento, condotta di spinta, sistema di riempimento, sistema ad aria compressa, stoccaggio olio e sistemi di trattamento, impianto di gru in caverna, studio preliminare, ricerca del modello, progettazione, progetto definitivo, allestimento documenti concorso d’appalto, valutazione delle offerte e aggiudicazione, sviluppo del progetto e piano esecutivo, inoltre supporto nella direzione di montaggio e messa in esercizio.

                         Dati di progetto

Committente: Nant de Drance SA, fondata il 07.11.2008 con la partecipazione di Alpiq Suisse SA (39%), FFS (36%), opere industriali Basilea (15%), canton Vallese (10%)

Costi generali di progetto: ca. CHF 2.1 Mrd.

Onorario totale AFRY: ca. CHF 93 Mio.

* * * * * * *


Dopo 14 anni di lavori, apre la centrale idroelettrica di Nant de Drance

Si trova in Vallese ed è il secondo impianto di questo tipo più grande al mondo, che funge da batteria gigante grazie a un sistema di pompaggio e turbinaggio. Servirà a stabilizzare la rete elettrica svizzera in un momento dove ce n’è davvero bisogno. 

A quattordici anni dall’inizio dei lavori, oggi è stata inaugurata la centrale vallesana di pompaggio-turbinaggio di Nant de Drance. All’evento hanno partecipato centinaia di persone, tra cui la consigliera federale Simonetta Sommaruga, “ministra” dell’energia.

Il colossale cantiere, di un costo di circa 2 miliardi di franchi, era stato lanciato ufficialmente l’8 settembre 2008. La centrale era in costruzione dalla primavera del 2009 sul territorio del comune di Finhaut, tra i due laghi artificiali di Vieux Emosson ed Emosson, più a valle, situati a circa 2000 metri di quota.

L’impianto sfrutta la differenza di quota di circa 300 metri tra le due dighe di Emosson per generare energia. Servirà in particolare a soddisfare l’aumento della domanda di elettricità nelle ore di punta. Agisce come una batteria con una capacità di stoccaggio di 20 milioni di chilowattora (kWh) nel lago superiore, l’equivalente di 400’000 batterie di auto elettriche, ha detto alla stampa Alain Sauthier, direttore di Nant de Drance SA.

“Una struttura come Nant de Drance svolge e continuerà a svolgere un ruolo essenziale nella stabilizzazione della rete elettrica svizzera ed europea. Con la sua capacità di stoccaggio e la sua rapida produzione, rappresenta un importante contributo alla sicurezza dell’approvvigionamento della Svizzera”, ha spiegato Sommaruga, responsabile del Dipartimento federale dell’ambiente, dei trasporti, dell’energia e delle comunicazioni (DATEC).

Il progetto ha richiesto enormi investimenti per installare due gruppi ulteriori di pompaggio-turbinaggio e innalzare di 21,5 metri la diga di Vieux Emosson, in modo da raddoppiarne la capienza. L’impianto, che dovrebbe generare circa 2,5 miliardi di kWh di energia all’anno, si trova 600 metri sotto terra, nelle montagne a una dozzina di chilometri a sudovest di Martigny, presso il confine con la Francia. La struttura ha 18 chilometri di gallerie e un’enorme caverna, chiamata cattedrale per le sue dimensioni: 52 metri di altezza, 32 metri di larghezza e 194 metri di lunghezza.

Gli azionisti della società Nant de Drance sono Alpiq (39%), FFS (36%), la compagnia energetica di Basilea Città IWB (Industrielle Werke Basel, 15%) e le Forces Motrices Valaisannes (FMV, 10%), di proprietà del Cantone e dei Comuni.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Geopolitica Europea, Materie Prime, Russia, Senza categoria

Russia. Esportazioni energetiche a 338 miliardi di dollari nel 2022. +52% yoy.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-09-14.

Kremlin 001

«Russia forecasts energy export revenues to rise this year by nearly $100 billion as higher commodity prices offset a decrease in volumes, Reuters reports, citing government documents.

Russia’s Economy Ministry now expects energy export revenue to reach $338 billion in 2022, up more than a third from $244 billion last year.» [RadioFreeEurope]

* * * * * * *

I ricavi delle esportazioni energetiche raggiungeranno i 338 miliardi di dollari nel 2022. Cina e India hanno acquistato altri 9 miliardi di dollari di greggio russo nel secondo trimestre, vanificando il tentativo dell’Occidente di comprimere le finanze di Mosca. Nello stesso periodo, Cina e India hanno importato 11 milioni di tonnellate in più. L’India, in particolare, ha registrato un’enorme impennata dei volumi, con consegne di greggio russo passate da 0,66 milioni di tonnellate a 8,42 milioni di tonnellate.

 Per esempio, Tatneft, un produttore di petrolio russo, ha visto i profitti balzare del 52% rispetto all’anno precedente per la prima metà del 2022, riporta il FT. E il mese scorso la Russia ha esportato più petrolio rispetto a qualsiasi altro agosto registrato.

* * * * * * *

«Energy export revenue to reach $338 billion in 2022. China and India bought $9 billion worth of additional Russian crude in the 2nd quarter, undercutting the West’s attempt to squeeze Moscow’s finances. China and India together imported 11 million additional tonnes during that span. India in particular has seen a huge uptick in volume, with deliveries of Russian crude going from 0.66 million tonnes to 8.42 million tonnes»

« For example, Tatneft, a Russian oil producer, saw profits jump 52% year-over-year for the first half of 2022, the FT reports. And last month, Russia exported more oil compared to any previous August on record»

* * * * * * *


China and India bought $9 billion worth of additional Russian crude in the 2nd quarter, undercutting the West’s attempt to squeeze Moscow’s finances

– The two nations bought $9 billion in additional Russian crude in the second quarter compared to the first quarter, a Financial Times report says.

– China and India together imported 11 million additional tonnes during that span.

China and India customs data reveal that the countries ramped up purchases of Russian oil by $9 billion in the second quarter compared to the first quarter, according to a Financial Times report.

Between the two Asian nations, Russian oil imports jumped by 11 million tonnes in the second quarter.

India in particular has seen a huge uptick in volume, with deliveries of Russian crude going from 0.66 million tonnes to 8.42 million tonnes, per the FT.

Since Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February, the US and its allies have imposed sanctions on Russia. And while not all countries have directly banned Russian oil, many companies have shunned it in so-called self-sanctioning.

However, Chinese and Indian buyers have largely mitigated the effects, as the world’s two most populous countries have continued to snap up crude that has traded at a discount relative to benchmark rates.

Russian oil income remains higher than it was last year because global prices have stayed above $100 for most of 2022.

For example, Tatneft, a Russian oil producer, saw profits jump 52% year-over-year for the first half of 2022, the FT reports. And last month, Russia exported more oil compared to any previous August on record, according to the Institute of International Finance.

The emergence of India and China as top importers of Russian crude has made their participation in the G7’s cap on the price of Russian barrels especially important. Leaders aim to have the plan in place by December 5, when Europe’s ban on seaborne Russian oil imports begins.

India is in talks to join the effort, but Putin seemed unconcerned about energy exports moving forward.

“As far as our resources are concerned, you know, the demand is so great on the world markets that we have no problem selling them,” he said at an economic forum on Wednesday.

* * * * * * *

Russian oil and gas revenues grow by 50 percent – Prime Minister Mishustin

Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said that the level of oil and gas revenues of the Russian budget increased by almost 50 percent after the introduction of Western sanctions, RIA Novosti reports.

Nevertheless, the amount of additional oil and gas revenues, calculated as the difference between actual and basic income levels, amounted to 85.9 billion rubles in August, having thus fallen short of expectations of the Russian Finance Ministry. In early August, the ministry predicted an additional income at about 359.5 billion rubles. The actual amount of excess over the baseline was 273.6 billion rubles lower.

The G7 countries implemented a price cap on Russian oil imports. Russian oil prices are to be capped starting from December 5 (prices on Russian oil products — from February 5, 2023). Prior to the G7 announcement, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak and presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia would not cooperate with the countries that limit prices on Russian oil.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Cina, Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime, Russia

Sili Sibiri 2, Altai gas pipeline, collegerà Yamal alla Cina. Sarà la morte del blocco europeo.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-09-13.

Russia. Pipeline. Altai Gas Pipeline 001

«Alea iacta est»

Tutte le risorse energetiche russe saranno dirottate su Cina e paesi del blocco euroasiatico.

«Western officials worry that the project could have serious geopolitical implications for energy-hungry European nations»

* * * * * * *

Russia. Pakistan, Greater Eurasian Partnership ed Eurasian Economic Union.

Pakistan’s Role in Russia’s Greater Eurasian Partnership.

Nuova Grande Depressione. Prezzo pagato alla guerra di Biden alla Russia. – Bloomberg.

Cina. Rifiuta di biasimare la Russia ed incolpa gli Stati Uniti di quanto accade in Ukraina.

Russia. Pakistan, Greater Eurasian Partnership ed Eurasian Economic Union.

L’Unione economica eurasiatica accoglierà l’Iran dal febbraio 2018.

Stati Uniti. Anno 2021. Import, Export, Macrodati. Le sanzioni sono temibili ma controproducenti.

Russia e Cina. Sili Sibiri quasi terminato. Aumenta il flusso di gas verso la Cina.

Russia e Cina. Sila Sibiri. Un gasdotto da 4,000 km e 70 mld Usd.

Gazprom. Investimenti per 1.1 trilioni di rubli. Sila Sibiri.

Russia. Partita la prima tanker LNG della stagione, da Yamal verso la Cina.

Russia, Penisola Gydan. Arctic LNG-2: un progetto da 21 miliardi Usd.

Russia. Akademik Lomonosov. Prima centrale atomica mobile e galleggiante.

Usa. Le sanzioni di Joe Biden hanno generato un possente mercato dello Yuan.

Cina. Le riserve in dollari americani sono scese sotto il trilione.

Brics Plus. Sono diventati la prima potenza mondiale e l’occidente liberal ne è escluso.

Dushanbe. Russia e Cina integrano l’Iran nello SCO. Altra débâcle irredimibile di Joe Biden.

Cina, Russia ed Iran formano un blocco funzionale che insidia gli Stati Uniti.

Usa. Il tentativo di Joe Biden di isolare la Russia e la Cina è fallito irreparabilmente.

Russian Gas Pivot Toward China Will Ease Europe’s Energy Crunch

Russia. Non esporta in Cina solo il petrolio ma anche il famigerato carbone.

Russia. Acquisterà 70 miliardi Usd in Yuan e valute amiche.

Cina. Contratti petroliferi in yuan convertibili in oro.

* * * * * * *

La Russia ha accettato un contratto trentennale per la fornitura di gas alla Cina attraverso Power of Siberia 2, un nuovo gasdotto di 2600 km che ha origine nei giacimenti di gas di Bovanenkovo e Kharasavey a Yamal, rafforzando un’alleanza energetica con Pechino in mezzo alle tensioni di Mosca con l’Occidente per l’Ucraina e altre questioni.

Gazprom, che detiene il monopolio delle esportazioni di gas russo attraverso i gasdotti, ha accettato di fornire alla CNPC, la major energetica statale cinese, 10 miliardi di metri cubi di gas all’anno. I funzionari occidentali temono che il progetto possa avere serie implicazioni geopolitiche per le nazioni europee affamate di energia, prima che queste si impegnino seriamente in una lunga transizione verso le energie rinnovabili e l’abbandono dei combustibili fossili. La Russia invia già gas alla Cina tramite il suo gasdotto Power of Siberia 1, che ha iniziato a pompare forniture nel 2019, e tramite la spedizione di gas naturale liquefatto (LNG). Nel 2021 ha esportato in Cina 16.5 miliardi di metri cubi di gas (bcm). La Russia ha bisogno di diversificare in Asia per prolungare i profitti derivanti dalle sue vaste risorse di gas naturale.

Con l’inverno alle porte, l’Europa sta affrontando una carenza di gas. L’ondata di freddo ha coinciso con la riduzione dei volumi di esportazione di gas dalla Russia, provocando un’impennata dei prezzi. I consumatori e le imprese di tutto il continente stanno affrontando un forte aumento delle bollette, mentre i governi si affannano a cercare di attutire l’impatto. E gli analisti avvertono che la situazione potrebbe presto peggiorare.  Dalle distese ghiacciate della Siberia, la Russia sta già inviando gas naturale alla Cina. Il gasdotto Power of Siberia 1, inaugurato nel 2019, sfrutta i giacimenti di gas dell’estremo oriente russo per contribuire ad alimentare l’economia cinese. L’Europa rimane di gran lunga il principale cliente della Russia, importando circa 200 miliardi di metri cubi di gas all’anno – circa il 30% della fornitura del continente. In confronto, la Cina acquista circa 38 miliardi di metri cubi all’anno.

Power of Siberia 1 utilizza gas che non è collegato ai giacimenti che possono rifornire il mercato europeo. Quindi, non si tratta, almeno al momento, del gas russo che va in Cina, ma della perdita di gas che potrebbe andare in Europa. Mosca e Pechino stanno per accordarsi su un secondo gasdotto – il Power of Siberia 2 – che raddoppierebbe le esportazioni di gas dalla Russia alla Cina, attraversando la Mongolia e raggiungendo le regioni industriali affamate di energia vicino a Pechino.

Inoltre, il gasdotto unirebbe la rete interna del gas russo, collegando la Cina con gli stessi giacimenti di gas della penisola russa di Yamal che riforniscono l’Europa.

Il gasdotto Power of Siberia 2, lungo 2,600 km, tra Russia e Cina attraverso la Mongolia, dovrebbe avere una capacità di trasporto di 50 miliardi di metri cubi all’anno. La costruzione del gasdotto Power of Siberia 2 tra la Russia e la Cina attraverso la Mongolia dovrebbe iniziare nel 2024.

* * * * * * *

«Russia has agreed to a 30-year contract to supply gas to China via Power of Siberia 2, a new 2600-km pipeline originating in the Bovanenkovo and Kharasavey gas fields in Yamal,  bolstering an energy alliance with Beijing amid Moscow’s strained ties with the West over Ukraine and other issues»

«Gazprom, which has a monopoly on Russian gas exports by pipeline, agreed to supply Chinese state energy major CNPC with 10 billion cubic metres of gas a year. Western officials worry that the project could have serious geopolitical implications for energy-hungry European nations before they embark in earnest on a long transition to renewables and away from fossil fuels. Russia already sends gas to China via its Power of Siberia 1 pipeline, which began pumping supplies in 2019, and by shipping liquefied natural gas (LNG). It exported 16.5 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas to China in 2021. Russia needs to diversify into Asia to prolong its profits from its vast natural gas resources»

«As winter bites, Europe is facing a gas shortage. A cold snap has coincided with lower volumes of gas exports from Russia, forcing a big spike in prices. Consumers and businesses across the continent are facing a steep increase in their bills, with governments scrambling to cushion the impact. And analysts warn it could soon get worse.  From the frozen expanses of Siberia, Russia already is sending some natural gas to China. The “Power of Siberia 1” pipeline opened in 2019, tapping the gas fields in Russia’s far east to help fuel the Chinese economy. Europe remains Russia’s largest customer by far, importing about 200 billion cubic meters of gas every year – about 30% of the continent’s supply. By comparison, China purchases about 38 billion cubic meters annually»

«Power of Siberia 1 uses gas that is not connected to the fields that can supply the European market. So, it’s not a question, at the moment at least, of gas from Russia going to China, being the loss of gas that could go to Europe. Moscow and Beijing are close to agreeing on a second pipeline – the “Power of Siberia 2” – which would double gas exports from Russia to China, crossing through Mongolia and into the power-hungry industrial regions near Beijing. Crucially, it also would join up Russia’s internal gas network, connecting China with the same gas fields in Russia’s Yamal peninsula that supply Europe.»

«The 2,600km long Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline between Russia and China via Mongolia is planned to have a transportation capacity of 50 billion cubic meters per year. Construction on the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline between Russia and China via Mongolia is expected to start in 2024»

* * * * * * *


Power of Siberia 2 Pipeline Puts Ever More Pressure on Europe

Russia has agreed to a 30-year contract to supply gas to China via Power of Siberia 2, a new 2600-km pipeline originating in the Bovanenkovo and Kharasavey gas fields in Yamal,  bolstering an energy alliance with Beijing amid Moscow’s strained ties with the West over Ukraine and other issues.

Gazprom, which has a monopoly on Russian gas exports by pipeline, agreed to supply Chinese state energy major CNPC with 10 billion cubic metres of gas a year, the Russian firm and a Beijing-based industry official said.

Western officials worry that the project could have serious geopolitical implications for energy-hungry European nations before they embark in earnest on a long transition to renewables and away from fossil fuels.

Russia already sends gas to China via its Power of Siberia 1 pipeline, which began pumping supplies in 2019, and by shipping liquefied natural gas (LNG). It exported 16.5 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas to China in 2021.

The Kremlin has been eager to expand its energy market in China, which will need more gas in coming years to substitute for an eventual phasing down of coal, according to Vita Spivak, an energy analyst at Control Risks, a global consulting firm. Spivak told a discussion forum earlier this month that Kremlin officials are anxious to “exploit the opportunity” especially “considering there is a good working relationship between the two capitals.

McKinsey, the strategic management consulting firm, estimates Chinese demand for gas will double by 2035. That will be a godsend for Russia. European governments are already setting out plans on how to transform their energy markets—how they will generate, import and distribute energy and shift to renewables and, in some cases, nuclear power. Russia needs to diversify into Asia to prolong its profits from its vast natural gas resources as Europe slowly weans itself off Gazprom supplies.

* * * * * * *

‘Power of Siberia 2’ Pipeline Could See Europe, China Compete for Russian Gas

As winter bites, Europe is facing a gas shortage. A cold snap has coincided with lower volumes of gas exports from Russia, forcing a big spike in prices. Consumers and businesses across the continent are facing a steep increase in their bills, with governments scrambling to cushion the impact. And analysts warn it could soon get worse.

Moscow plans to build a new pipeline to China, which could give Russia the power to sell gas to the highest bidder, pitting Chinese and European consumers against one another.

                         Chinese economy

From the frozen expanses of Siberia, Russia already is sending some natural gas to China. The “Power of Siberia 1” pipeline opened in 2019, tapping the gas fields in Russia’s far east to help fuel the Chinese economy.

Europe remains Russia’s largest customer by far, importing about 200 billion cubic meters of gas every year – about 30% of the continent’s supply. By comparison, China purchases about 38 billion cubic meters annually.

“Power of Siberia 1 uses gas that is not connected to the fields that can supply the European market. So, it’s not a question, at the moment at least, of gas from Russia going to China, being the loss of gas that could go to Europe,” explains Tom Marzec-Manser, head of gas analytics at the energy data firm Independent Commodity Intelligence Services (ICIS).

                         ‘Power of Siberia 2’

That could soon change. Moscow and Beijing are close to agreeing on a second pipeline – the “Power of Siberia 2” – which would double gas exports from Russia to China, crossing through Mongolia and into the power-hungry industrial regions near Beijing.

Crucially, it also would join up Russia’s internal gas network, connecting China with the same gas fields in Russia’s Yamal peninsula that supply Europe.

“It does give Gazprom – as that major exporter – the optionality to direct gas to one market over another,” Marzec-Manser told VOA.

That could give Russia considerable leverage, says Filip Medunic, who leads the Task Force for Strengthening Europe Against Economic Coercion at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

“Technically, it is hard to tell whether the pricing system will be designed in a way that there is going to be the possibility to sell to the highest bidder, but I think that Russia intent is definitely eyeing in this direction, to be able to use it as a leverage – at least rhetorically – in the coming decade,” Medunic told VOA.

Construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which connects Russia directly with Germany, was completed last year. Certification of the pipeline is currently suspended amid tensions between the West and Moscow.

Will it make a difference? Probably not,” said Marzec-Manser. “The reality is that when Nord Stream 2 starts running commercially – and it’s not running at the moment, it is ready, it’s operable, but not operational – it will just reroute gas that is already flowing through other routes.”

                         Sanctions

In recent months, Russia has amassed upwards of 100,000 troops on the border with Ukraine. The West has threatened crippling sanctions if Russia invades, including targeting its energy sector.

There are other incentives for Moscow to find new customers for its gas, says Marzec-Manser. “The trajectory of the European Union in particular in terms of decarbonization is that gas will have a diminishing role over the medium to long term,” he said.

* * * * * * *

Mongolian PM expects construction of Power of Siberia 2 to begin in 2024

The 2,600km long Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline between Russia and China via Mongolia is planned to have a transportation capacity of 50 billion cubic meters per year

Construction on the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline between Russia and China via Mongolia is expected to start in 2024, said Mongolian Prime Minister (PM) Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrai during an interview with the Financial Times.

Luvsannamsrai said that the feasibility study of the natural gas pipeline has been finished. The Prime Minister expects the construction of the Mongolian part to go ahead in spite of Russia’s military conflict with Ukraine.

However, the Prime Minister added that deliberations are still going on if the final route of the pipeline.

Luvsannamsrai also said that Russia did not put pressure on Mongolia to speed up the construction of the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline despite Gazprom’s planned gas pivot to Asia.

The 2,600km long Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline is planned to have a transportation capacity of 50 billion cubic meters per year.

In 2019, Russia signed a memorandum of understanding with Mongolia for studying the feasibility of laying the onshore gas pipeline through Mongolia.

Expected to begin operations in 2030, the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline will be owned by Gazprom (50%) and China’s CNPC (50%).

Russian President Vladimir Putin had given his nod to Gazprom in March 2020 to begin the implementation of the gas pipeline project. The pipeline will connect gas transportation systems in the eastern and western regions of Russia.

In December 2019, Gazprom launched piped supplies of Russian gas produced from the Irkutsk and Yakutia gas production centres to China through the 3,000km long Power of Siberia pipeline.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Materie Prime

Basf. Apre a Zhanjiang, nel sud della Cina, un gigantesco complesso chimico.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-09-12.

Cina. Zhanjiang 001

«Instead of Europe it opens in China»

«Invece che in Europa si apre in Cina.»

* * * * * * *

«BASF is an acronym for Badische Anilin- und SodaFabrik. It was founded by Friedrich Engelhorn on 6 April 1865 in Mannheim.

BASF SE is a German multinational chemical company and the largest chemical producer in the world. Its headquarters is located in Ludwigshafen, Germany.

The BASF Group comprises subsidiaries and joint ventures in more than 80 countries and operates six integrated production sites and 390 other production sites in Europe, Asia, Australia, the Americas and Africa. BASF has customers in over 190 countries and supplies products to a wide variety of industries.

The company announced the start of a US$10 billion investment project at Zhanjiang, China, in November 2019. This ″Verbund″ site is intended for the production of engineering plastics and TPU. The site would be the third-largest BASF site worldwide, following Ludwigshafen, Germany, and Antwerp, Belgium.» [Fonte]

* * * * * * *

Il gruppo chimico tedesco BASF ha dichiarato martedì di aver avviato la produzione in un gigantesco complesso a Zhanjiang, nel sud della Cina. Il primo impianto del sito produrrà 60,000 tonnellate di composti plastici tecnici all’anno per l’industria automobilistica ed elettronica, ha dichiarato l’azienda in un comunicato. L’azienda prevede di investire fino a 10 miliardi di euro (9.95 miliardi di dollari) nel sito, che sarà il terzo più grande a livello globale una volta completato nel 2030.

La nuova capacità di produzione di vernici per autoveicoli garantirà un’ulteriore affidabilità di fornitura per soddisfare la crescente domanda del mercato automobilistico cinese. Dimostra il nostro impegno a potenziare la produzione locale e a rispondere più rapidamente alle crescenti esigenze dei clienti cinesi. Inoltre, rafforza la posizione di BASF come fornitore leader e affidabile per i clienti in Cina. La domanda di rivestimenti per carrozzeria in Cina sta crescendo ad un ritmo sostenuto. È diventato indispensabile disporre di impianti di produzione avanzati nella regione per sostenere questo sviluppo.

L’impianto di produzione BCG offre un portafoglio completo di vernici per autoveicoli e soluzioni per i veicoli commerciali e l’aftermarket automobilistico. Queste comprendono stucchi, primer surfacer, basi, tinture, trasparenti, finiture, indurenti, diluenti, acceleratori a rapida essiccazione e miscelatori, ecc.

* * * * * * *

«German chemicals group BASF said on Tuesday it has started production at a giant complex in southern China’s Zhanjiang. The first plant at the site will produce 60,000 tonnes of engineering plastic compounds a year for the automotive and electronics industries, the company said in a statement. The company expects to invest up to 10 billion euros ($9.95 billion) in the site, which will be its third-largest globally when complete in 2030.»

«The new product capacity for automotive refinish coatings will bring additional supply reliability to fulfill the growing demand in China’s automotive market. It demonstrates our commitment to enhance local production and respond faster to the growing needs of Chinese customers. It also reinforces BASF’s position as one of the leading and reliable suppliers to customers in China. The demand for automotive refinish coatings in China is growing at a healthy rate. It has become imperative to have advanced production facilities in the region to support this development»

«The BCG manufacturing facility offers a comprehensive portfolio of automotive paints and solutions for commercial vehicles and automotive aftermarket. These include fillers, primer surfacer, basecoats, tinters, clearcoats, topcoats, hardeners, thinners, fast-drying accelerators and blenders etc»

* * * * * * *


Germany’s BASF starts production at southern China mega complex

Beijing, Sept 6 (Reuters) – German chemicals group BASF said on Tuesday it has started production at a giant complex in southern China’s Zhanjiang.

The first plant at the site will produce 60,000 tonnes of engineering plastic compounds a year for the automotive and electronics industries, the company said in a statement.

It will be supplied entirely by renewable electricity, it added.

The company expects to invest up to 10 billion euros ($9.95 billion) in the site, which will be its third-largest globally when complete in 2030.

Next year, it plans to start operating a plant for the production of thermoplastic polyurethanes (TPU) at the same complex.

* * * * * * *

BASF expands coatings site in South China

BASF SE (Ludwigshafen, Germany) announced that BASF Coatings (Guangdong) Co., Ltd. (BCG) has expanded the production capacity of automotive refinish coatings at its coatings site in Jiangmen, Guangdong Province in South China. With the completion of the expansion in July 2022, BASF’s production capacity of automotive refinish coatings will be increased to 30,000 metric tons per year (m.t./yr). This is in line with the company’s pledge to maintain customer proximity, as well as to strengthen BASF’s position as a leading and innovative coatings supplier to the automotive industry in China and the rest of Asia.

“The new product capacity for automotive refinish coatings will bring additional supply reliability to fulfill the growing demand in China’s automotive market. It demonstrates our commitment to enhance local production and respond faster to the growing needs of Chinese customers. It also reinforces BASF’s position as one of the leading and reliable suppliers to customers in China,” said Jeffrey Lou, President, BASF Greater China.

“The demand for automotive refinish coatings in China is growing at a healthy rate. It has become imperative to have advanced production facilities in the region to support this development. I am very confident that our investments in the expanded capacity will better support the growth of our customers in the automotive industry. Customers will benefit from our innovation strength and supply reliability they have come to know and trust,” said Patrick Zhao, Senior Vice President, BASF Coatings Solutions Asia Pacific.

BCG’s environmental credentials and contributions are well recognized by the Ecology and Environment Bureau of Jiangmen for several times since 2018. The company received the accolade of “Green Brand” for its outstanding contribution to sustainable development in the region.

The BCG manufacturing facility offers a comprehensive portfolio of automotive paints and solutions for commercial vehicles and automotive aftermarket. These include fillers, primer surfacer, basecoats, tinters, clearcoats, topcoats, hardeners, thinners, fast-drying accelerators and blenders etc.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Materie Prime, Senza categoria

Blocco europeo. Le fonderie dello alluminio chiudono i battenti. von der Leyen.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-09-09.

2022-09-06__ von der Leyen Alluminio 001

Alluminio. Agosto21. Prezzi saliti a 2,619 Usd per tonnellata.

EU aumenta i dazi sull’alluminio cinese.

* * * * * * *

Nel settore dell’alluminio, la chiusura di uno smelter è una decisione angosciante. Una volta che l’energia viene abbassata e le pentole di produzione tornano a temperatura ambiente, potrebbero essere necessari molti mesi e decine di milioni di dollari per riportarle in funzione. Eppure la Norsk Hydro ASA si sta preparando questo mese a fare proprio questo in un enorme impianto in Slovacchia.

Il metallo – utilizzato in un’enorme varietà di prodotti, dai telai delle automobili alle lattine di bibite, fino ai missili balistici – viene prodotto riscaldando materiali crudi fino a farli sciogliere, per poi far passare una corrente elettrica attraverso il crogiolo, il che lo rende un processo ad alta intensità energetica. Una tonnellata di alluminio richiede circa 15 megawattora di energia elettrica, sufficiente per alimentare 5 proprietà in Germania per un anno. Alcuni consumatori stanno inoltre cercando di tenersi alla larga dal metallo proveniente dalla Russia, che spesso è un enorme fornitore dell’Europa.

I problemi del settore dell’alluminio sono un esempio emblematico di ciò che sta accadendo nelle industrie europee ad alta intensità energetica: in tutto il continente, i produttori di fertilizzanti, le fabbriche di cemento, i mulini di metallo e le fonderie di zinco stanno chiudendo piuttosto che pagare costi esorbitanti per il carburante e l’energia elettrica. L’aspetto più preoccupante per il settore manifatturiero dell’area è che non si tratta solo di chiudere per l’inverno. Anche i costi dell’energia elettrica per il 2024 e il 2025 sono aumentati.

Anche i produttori di altri metalli, come lo zinco e il rame, stanno soffrendo molto, ma le enormi quantità di energia necessarie per produrre l’alluminio hanno reso il settore particolarmente poco redditizio. In Germania, l’energia necessaria per produrre una tonnellata di alluminio avrebbe avuto un prezzo di circa 4,200 dollari sul mercato spot venerdì, dopo aver superato i 10,000 dollari il mese scorso, secondo i calcoli di Bloomberg. Il valore dei futures del London Metal Exchange era di circa 2,300 dollari la tonnellata venerdì. Ciò significa che le riduzioni sembrano destinate ad accelerare nel corso dell’inverno.

L’Europa ha già perso circa 1 milione di tonnellate della sua capacità produttiva annuale di alluminio e Patel ha detto di aspettarsi che circa il 25% di questa capacità possa essere completamente ridotta. Altre 500,000 tonnellate sono altamente vulnerabili alla chiusura.

* * * * * * *

«In the aluminum trade, closing a smelter is an agonizing determination. Once energy is lower and the manufacturing “pots” settle again to room temperature, it might take many months and tens of tens of millions of {dollars} to carry them again on-line. Yet Norsk Hydro ASA is getting ready this month to do precisely that at an enormous plant in Slovakia.»

«The metallic — used in an enormous vary of merchandise, from automobile frames and soda cans to ballistic missiles — is produced by heating uncooked supplies till they dissolve, after which working an electrical present by means of the pot, making it massively energy intensive. One ton of aluminum requires about 15 megawatt-hours of electrical energy, sufficient to energy 5 properties in Germany for a yr. Some consumers are additionally attempting to keep away from metallic from Russia, which is often an enormous provider to Europe.»

«The woes of the aluminum sector supply a putting instance of what is taking part in out in Europe’s energy-intensive industries: throughout the continent, fertilizer makers, cement vegetation, metal mills and zinc smelters are additionally shutting down quite than pay eye-watering costs for fuel and electrical energy. Most worryingly for the area’s manufacturing sector: it could not merely be a case of shutting for the winter. Power costs for 2024 and 2025 have additionally soared»

«Producers of different metals like zinc and copper are hurting badly too, however the huge quantities of energy wanted to make aluminum have made the sector notably unprofitable. In Germany, the ability wanted to provide a ton of aluminum would have price roughly $4,200 in the spot market on Friday after topping greater than $10,000 final month, in accordance with Bloomberg calculations. The London Metal Exchange futures worth was round $2,300 a ton on Friday. That means curtailments look set to speed up over the winter.»

«Europe has already misplaced about 1 million tons of its annual aluminum manufacturing capability, and Patel mentioned he expects that about 25% of that could be curtailed completely. Another 500,000 tons is “highly vulnerable” to closure»

* * * * * * *


Smelters Feeding Europe’s Factories Face an Existential Crisis

(Bloomberg) — In the aluminum trade, closing a smelter is an agonizing determination. Once energy is lower and the manufacturing “pots” settle again to room temperature, it might take many months and tens of tens of millions of {dollars} to carry them again on-line.

Yet Norsk Hydro ASA is getting ready this month to do precisely that at an enormous plant in Slovakia. And it’s not the one one — European manufacturing has dropped to the bottom ranges for the reason that Nineteen Seventies and trade insiders say the escalating vitality disaster is now threatening to create an extinction occasion throughout massive swathes of the area’s aluminum manufacturing.

The rationalization lies in aluminum’s nickname: “congealed electricity.” The metallic — used in an enormous vary of merchandise, from automobile frames and soda cans to ballistic missiles — is produced by heating uncooked supplies till they dissolve, after which working an electrical present by means of the pot, making it massively energy intensive. One ton of aluminum requires about 15 megawatt-hours of electrical energy, sufficient to energy 5 properties in Germany for a yr.

Some smelters are protected by authorities subsidies, long-term electrical energy offers or entry to their very own renewable energy, however the remainder face an unsure future.

As manufacturing drops, the tons of of European producers that flip metallic into components for German vehicles or French airplanes are left more and more reliant on imports that would get costlier. Some consumers are additionally attempting to keep away from metallic from Russia, which is often an enormous provider to Europe.

“History has proven, once aluminum smelters go away, they don’t come back,” mentioned Mark Hansen, chief government of metals buying and selling home Concord Resources Ltd. “There is an argument which extends beyond employment: this is an important base metal commodity, it goes into aircraft, weapons, transport and machinery.”

The trade says it urgently wants authorities assist to outlive. However, any measures like mounted worth caps to maintain power-hungry vegetation working could also be troublesome to justify whereas customers face hovering energy payments and the specter of rationing and blackouts looms.

The woes of the aluminum sector supply a putting instance of what is taking part in out in Europe’s energy-intensive industries: throughout the continent, fertilizer makers, cement vegetation, metal mills and zinc smelters are additionally shutting down quite than pay eye-watering costs for fuel and electrical energy.

Most worryingly for the area’s manufacturing sector: it could not merely be a case of shutting for the winter. Power costs for 2024 and 2025 have additionally soared, threatening the long-term viability of many industries.

At latest market costs, the annual energy invoice for the Slovalco smelter could be round two billion euros, in accordance with Chief Executive Officer Milan Vesely. Slovalco determined to mothball the plant because of a mix of surging vitality costs and a scarcity of emissions compensation that’s out there to smelters elsewhere in the bloc.

Restarting the plant — which may take as much as a yr — will solely be attainable by means of some mixture of cheaper energy, a pointy rise in aluminum costs, and extra authorities assist, Vesely mentioned in an interview this week on the web site.

“This is a genuine existential crisis,” mentioned Paul Voss, director-general of European Aluminium, which represents the area’s largest producers and processors. “We really need to sort something quite quickly, otherwise there will be nothing left to fix.”

Combined with import tariffs that Europe’s struggling producers have fought exhausting to place in place, the rising price of vitality may go away producers dealing with an more and more massive premium over prevailing worldwide costs in order to safe provide, in an additional blow to Europe’s aggressive standing in the worldwide industrial financial system.

“There will be nothing left to fix”

Producers of different metals like zinc and copper are hurting badly too, however the huge quantities of energy wanted to make aluminum have made the sector notably unprofitable.

In Germany, the ability wanted to provide a ton of aluminum would have price roughly $4,200 in the spot market on Friday after topping greater than $10,000 final month, in accordance with Bloomberg calculations. The London Metal Exchange futures worth was round $2,300 a ton on Friday. That means curtailments look set to speed up over the winter.

“Whenever we get downturns in economic growth and smelter margins come under pressure, we see European smelters shutting a decent portion of capacity,” mentioned Uday Patel, senior analysis supervisor at Wood Mackenzie. “When things improve, there are some smelters that never come back online.”

Wood Mackenzie estimates that Europe has already misplaced about 1 million tons of its annual aluminum manufacturing capability, and Patel mentioned he expects that about 25% of that could be curtailed completely. Another 500,000 tons is “highly vulnerable” to closure, Wood Mackenzie estimates.

The curtailments have had little affect on aluminum costs, which have fallen by greater than 40% since a peak in March as merchants brace for a world stoop in demand that might be much more extreme.

But whereas Europe’s manufacturing losses account for about 1.5% of world provide, they may go away customers in Europe more and more reliant on imports that shall be costlier and carry a heavier carbon footprint.

Already, European producers are paying hefty supply charges to get aluminum shipped to native ports, and additional will increase may go away them in an more and more uncompetitive place relative to friends throughout Asia and the US.

The vitality disaster can also be rippling rapidly down the provision chain to firms that purchase aluminum from smelters and rework it into specialist merchandise used in every thing from vehicles to meals packaging.

They use important quantities of fuel in the method, and plenty of need to cross on their surging vitality prices by way of contractual surcharges that would bake in extra prices for producers for years to return.

“The smelter curtailments are only the tip of the iceberg, because you also have downstream players who are buying prime metal and transforming it into products for use in sectors like beverage cans and automotives,” mentioned Michel Van Hoey, a senior associate at McKinsey & Co. These firms have usually seen a ten-fold enhance in their vitality payments and “will not be able to fully pass on those costs without some degree of demand destruction or import substitution.”

At Slovalco, Vesely — who has labored on the firm since 1989 — is hopeful it will likely be in a position to reopen the plant as soon as vitality costs fall, however acknowledges the chance that it may stay offline for years.

“Something must be done if we don’t want to destroy European aluminum production,” he mentioned. “If Europe considers aluminum as a strategic metal, then aluminum plants should have guaranteed prices of electricity.”

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime

Svezia. 11 settembre. Elezioni politiche. Inflazione tema dominante.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-09-03.

2022-09-04__ Svezia 001

Il dramma delle elezioni a suffragio universale consiste nel fatto che vinca le elezioni chi prendesse la maggioranza.

Ma gli Elettori votano chi promette di più, anche se poi non manterrà nulla di quanto promesso.

«Whoever wins may find it hard to live up to all their promises.»

«Chiunque vinca potrebbe avere difficoltà a mantenere tutte le promesse fatte.»

* * * * * * *

Svezia. Rimessa in funzione la centrale elettrica di Karlshamn a petrolio.

Nato, Finlandia, Svezia e Turkia. L’adesione deve essere ratificata da tutti i membri.

Svezia. Sfiduciato il Governo socialdemocratico Löfven.

Svezia. Ritornerebbe in auge la libertà di parola e di ricerca nelle università.

Medici e paramedici stanno lasciando in massa la sanità. 500 al mese. La Svezia.

Svezia. Senza Lockdown pil annuale +0.4%. Ma la disoccupazione al 17%.

Svezia. Economia -7%. Disoccupati ufficiali 7.9%, reali 17%.

Svezia. ‘Number of young adults given treatment for psychiatric illness has risen by 70%.

* * * * * * *

Ma le preoccupazioni dei consumatori per l’impennata delle bollette dell’elettricità, l’aumento dei tassi d’interesse e lo stallo della crescita economica fanno sì che la campagna per le elezioni generali dell’11 settembre si sia trasformata in una sorta di gara d’appalto tra il blocco di centro-sinistra e quello di destra su chi può fare di più per alleviare il dolore a breve termine. C’è il rischio che ci sia un’economia di compensazione piuttosto che un’attenzione alle riforme strutturali a lungo termine.

Ma negli ultimi decenni il divario tra ricchi e poveri è cresciuto, rendendo molti vulnerabili all’inflazione che attualmente si aggira intorno all’8%.

A gennaio ha ricevuto una bolletta mensile dell’elettricità di oltre 19,000 corone svedesi (1,765 dollari), due o tre volte superiore a quella che paga in un inverno normale. I prezzi potrebbero essere ancora più alti nella prossima stagione, anche a causa dei problemi alla centrale nucleare di Ringhals. L’elettricità svedese proviene principalmente da energia idroelettrica, nucleare ed eolica, e solo in minima parte dal gas. Un aumento di oltre il 100% è di per sé brutale. Ma il costo potrebbe essere tre o quattro volte più alto.

È chiaro che quanto più si è preoccupati, ad esempio, per i prezzi dell’elettricità, tanto più questo influenzerà il voto. Anche i prezzi della benzina e dei generi alimentari sono saliti alle stelle. Il costo del burro è aumentato di circa il 25%, della carne del 24% e del formaggio di circa il 22% quest’anno.

Il governo socialdemocratico del primo ministro Magdalena Andersson ha promesso fino a 90 miliardi di corone svedesi (8.36 miliardi di dollari) in sussidi per alleviare il dolore dell’aumento delle bollette dell’elettricità per le famiglie e le imprese, in aggiunta ai miliardi di sussidi pagati lo scorso inverno. I Moderati, il principale partito di opposizione di centro-destra, hanno promesso tagli alle imposte sul reddito e una riduzione dei prezzi del carburante, che secondo loro significherebbero 24,000 corone in più all’anno per le famiglie di lavoratori.

* * * * * * *

«But consumer worries over soaring electricity bills, rising interest rates and stalling economic growth mean the campaign for the general election on Sept. 11 has turned into something of a bidding war between the centre-left and right-wing blocs over which can do more to ease the short-term pain. There is a risk that there will be a compensation economy rather than a focus on long-term structural reform»

«But in recent decades, the gap between rich and poor has been growing, leaving many vulnerable to inflation that is currently at around 8%.»

«a monthly electricity bill for over 19,000 Swedish crowns ($1,765) in January – two or three times what she pays in a normal winter. Prices could be even higher this coming season – not least because of problems at the Ringhals nuclear plant. Sweden’s electricity comes mainly from hydro-power, nuclear and wind, with only a tiny fraction from gas. A rise of over 100% feels brutal in itself. But the cost may be three or four times as high»

«Clearly the more worried you are over, for example electricity prices, the more it will affect how you vote. Petrol and food prices have also soared. The cost of butter is up by around 25%, meat 24% and cheese around 22% this year»

«Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson’s Social Democrat government has promised up to 90 billion Swedish crowns ($8.36 billion) in subsidies to ease the pain of rising electricity bills for households and businesses, on top of billions in subsidies paid last winter. The Moderates, the leading centre-right opposition party, have promised income tax cuts and lower fuel prices, which they say would mean 24,000 crowns extra for working families each year»

* * * * * * *


Svezia. 11 settembre le elezioni politiche.

– Swedes vote in general election on Sept. 11

– Cost of living crisis high on voters’ list of worries

– Parties rush out promises to ease pain

– Risk short-term measures may have long-term costs

* * * * * * *

Stockholm, Sept 2 (Reuters) – With its robust welfare provisions and green energy mix, wealthy Sweden should be better placed than most countries in Europe to withstand the energy-driven cost of living crisis battering the continent.

But consumer worries over soaring electricity bills, rising interest rates and stalling economic growth mean the campaign for the general election on Sept. 11 has turned into something of a bidding war between the centre-left and right-wing blocs over which can do more to ease the short-term pain. That could entail long-term costs for the economy.

“There is a risk that there will be a compensation economy rather than a focus on long-term structural reform,” said Sven-Olov Daunfeldt, chief economist at the Confederation of Swedish Enterprise.

Swedes are among Europe’s most well-off. The welfare system – though much less generous than it used to be – means poverty rates are well below the European average. But in recent decades, the gap between rich and poor has been growing, leaving many vulnerable to inflation that is currently at around 8%.

Eva Lindman Marko, a 59-year-old educational psychologist, said she got a monthly electricity bill for over 19,000 Swedish crowns ($1,765) in January – two or three times what she pays in a normal winter.

Prices could be even higher this coming season – not least because of problems at the Ringhals nuclear plant.

Sweden’s electricity comes mainly from hydro-power, nuclear and wind, with only a tiny fraction from gas. But with prices set on international markets, it has not escaped the continent-wide effects of the war in Ukraine on energy prices.

“A rise of over 100% feels brutal in itself. But the cost may be three or four times as high,” Lindman Marko said, adding that this winter she plans to lower the thermostat at home, wear thermal clothes and go to the sauna at a local swimming pool to warm up.

“Clearly the more worried you are over, for example electricity prices, the more it will affect how you vote,” she said.

Petrol and food prices have also soared. The cost of butter is up by around 25%, meat 24% and cheese around 22% this year, according to consumer price comparison site Matpriskollen.

Stockholm’s Stadsmission, a non-profit organization, said it had seen its membership of its Matmissionen subsidized foodshops nearly double in the first half of the year.

“It’s a broad group – maybe you are a pensioner, maybe you are unemployed or perhaps have not lived for a long time in Sweden,” said Johan Rindevall, who heads up the Matmissionen shops.

                         PROMISES, PROMISES

The two major political blocs are rushing out promises to help consumers fight the effects of inflation.

Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson’s Social Democrat government has promised up to 90 billion Swedish crowns ($8.36 billion) in subsidies to ease the pain of rising electricity bills for households and businesses, on top of billions in subsidies paid last winter.  

The Moderates, the leading centre-right opposition party, have promised income tax cuts and lower fuel prices, which they say would mean 24,000 crowns extra for working families each year.

They intend to pay for measures by cutting back on overseas aid and benefits like unemployment and sickness insurance.

As a longer term solution to the energy crisis, the centre-right plans loan guarantees of up to 400 billion crowns to support building new nuclear power stations. Like Germany, Sweden has been shutting reactors in recent years.

The Left Party, loosely part of the centre-left bloc, wants to halt electricity exports.

Opinion polls don’t give a clear answer as to which policy promises have caught voters’ eyes, but the ruling Social Democrats have at least avoided blame for the gloomy economic outlook.

The two main blocs are running neck-and-neck though the Social Democrats are easily the largest party.

                         TOUGH CHOICES

Whoever wins may find it hard to live up to all their promises.

The NIER, a government think-tank, reckons the next administration will have around 120 billion crowns to play with in terms of extra spending.

A chunk of that is already earmarked for defence spending as Sweden raises its allocation to 2% of GDP from the current 1% to support its bid to join NATO, and for other measures like boosting healthcare and employing more police to deal with gang crime.  

At the same time, GDP growth is expected to slow to around 0.4% next year, according to a government forecast, and even grind to a halt completely if inflation worsens and rates rise more than currently expected.

Increasing public debt would “add fuel to inflation and further raise interest rates and could also threaten public finances, threaten welfare and pensions,” Finance Minister Mikael Damberg warned last month.

Diverting cash to support households will leave less for structural reforms needed to support the shift to a “green” economy, to rebuild the welfare state and to meet a skills shortage in the labour market.

The Social Democrats’ plan to subsidize energy bills will be paid from a fund that is supposed to be used, in part, for expanding transmission capacity – one of the major causes of record domestic electricity prices in Sweden.

Plans by the right to decrease the amount of biofuel in petrol and diesel, making them cheaper, will also make it harder to reach the country’s target of zero net emissions by 2045.

It is also uncertain which policies will get approval from the next parliament, given that even within the centre-left and right blocs there is much disagreement about what to do and how to pay for it.

“No responsible politician can say that they will compensate for every price rise,” Andersson said last month.