Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime, Problemia Energetici, Unione Europea

von der Leyen. ‘Il nucleare serve’. E ce lo viene a dire adesso che siamo in stagflazione.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-10-25.

Caravaggio_the-cardsharps_e1

Nella Unione Europea c’è una patologica confusione mentale tra l’immediato ed il futuro, come poi se questo fosse davvero prevedibile con certezza.

Una cosa è come uscire dall’attuale crisi energetica dovuta ai prezzi proibitivi del gas naturale e del carbone, e dalla stagflazione che ne consegue, ed una totalmente differente sono i sacrifici imposti perché nel 2050 sia ecologicamente lindi.

Al momento di scrivere questo testo, rispetto l’anno precedente il natural gas ha un incremento del 108.86%, il TTF del 362.60% e l’UK Gas del 292.55%. Questa è la situazione attuale.

Nel 2050 tutti noi saremo morti.

* * * * * * *

«Vogliamo esplorare come stabilire una riserva strategica di gas, esplorare la possibilità di appalti comuni, intensificheremo l’outreach verso i diversi fornitori per diversificare le fonti di approvvigionamento»

«L’Ue è chiamata a fare i conti con la crisi energetica immediata, con i prezzi alle stelle, ma anche con l’imponente sfida della transizione ecologica»

«Se esaminiamo l’aspetto di medio e lungo termine, lavoreremo su altre misure per aumentare la resilienza e l’indipendenza dell’Unione europea: vogliamo esplorare come stabilire una riserva strategica di gas, esplorare la possibilità di appalti comuni, intensificheremo l’outreach verso i diversi fornitori per diversificare le fonti di approvvigionamento e dobbiamo accelerare il lavoro sull’interconnessione …. Questo mi porta al mix energetico del futuro: è ovvio che abbiamo bisogno di più energia rinnovabile e pulita, se consideriamo il costo di produzione dell’energia rinnovabile, per il solare è dieci volte meno cara di dieci anni fa, l’energia eolica è volatile, pero’ è del 50% meno cara di dieci anni fa, quindi vi sono rinnovabili e sono fonti che abbiamo in casa. Accanto a questo abbiamo bisogno di una fonte stabile, il nucleare per esempio, e durante la transizione anche del gas naturale. Come abbiamo già detto ad aprile, presenteremo la proposta sulla tassonomia tra breve …. Nucleare e rinnovabili ci danno anche indipendenza»

«Abbiamo parlato anche di nucleare. Alcuni Paesi chiedono di inserirlo tra le fonti di energia non inquinanti»

«La Commissione procederà a una proposta a dicembre. Ci sono posizioni molto divisive in Consiglio. Vedremo quale nucleare e poi in ogni caso ci vuole moltissimo tempo»

«Ma ogni Stato membro ha una realtà energetica diversa e una propria percezione dell’attuale crisi dei prezzi, con divergenze sulle cause, sugli effetti, sulla durata e su come affrontarla»

«Le conclusioni di queste analisi saranno note nei prossimi mesi»

«L’energia nucleare è una fonte di energia economica, stabile e indipendente, sostiene il gruppo di Paesi, guidato da Francia e composto da Bulgaria, Croazia, Repubblica Ceca, Finlandia, Ungheria, Polonia, Slovacchia, Slovenia e Romania»

«”Nessuno mi garantisce che questo aumento dei prezzi sarà risolto in pochi mesi”, ha dichiarato il presidente francese Francia, Emmanuel Macron»

* * * * * * *

La lentezza decisionale della Unione Europea è proverbiale, anche di fronte a crisi immediate di questa portata.

Poi, i tempi necessari per costruire una centrale atomica si aggirano sui dieci anni: ma intanto nessuno ci dice come potremo campare fino al 2031, sempre poi che ci si riesca. La stagflazione non perdona nulla a nessuno.

Ripetiamo. Il problema è come sopravvivere oggi: nel 2050 saremo tutti morti.

* * * * * * *


L’Ue fa i conti con la crisi energetica. Von der Leyen: “Il nucleare ci serve”.

La presidente della Commissione europea: “Vogliamo esplorare come stabilire una riserva strategica di gas, esplorare la possibilità di appalti comuni, intensificheremo l’outreach verso i diversi fornitori per diversificare le fonti di approvvigionamento”.

* * *

L’Ue è chiamata a fare i conti con la crisi energetica immediata, con i prezzi alle stelle, ma anche con l’imponente sfida della transizione ecologica. E su questo dovrà scegliere quali fonti valorizzare, quali salvare e quali abbandonare nella prossima fase di transizione. E lo farà entro dicembre.

Al termine del vertice Ue, dopo la discussione di ieri sera durata oltre cinque ore, la presidente della Commissione europea, Ursula von der Leyen, ha tracciato la sua linea. “Se esaminiamo l’aspetto di medio e lungo termine, lavoreremo su altre misure per aumentare la resilienza e l’indipendenza dell’Unione europea: vogliamo esplorare come stabilire una riserva strategica di gas, esplorare la possibilità di appalti comuni, intensificheremo l’outreach verso i diversi fornitori per diversificare le fonti di approvvigionamento e dobbiamo accelerare il lavoro sull’interconnessione”, ha spiegato.

“In parallelo a tutto questo, valuteremo il funzionamento del mercato del gas e dell’elettricità oltre che del mercato Ets e riferiremo verso la fine dell’anno”, ha aggiunto. “Questo mi porta al mix energetico del futuro: è ovvio che abbiamo bisogno di più energia rinnovabile e pulita, se consideriamo il costo di produzione dell’energia rinnovabile, per il solare è dieci volte meno cara di dieci anni fa, l’energia eolica è volatile, pero’ è del 50% meno cara di dieci anni fa, quindi vi sono rinnovabili e sono fonti che abbiamo in casa. Accanto a questo abbiamo bisogno di una fonte stabile, il nucleare per esempio, e durante la transizione anche del gas naturale. Come abbiamo già detto ad aprile, presenteremo la proposta sulla tassonomia tra breve”, ha annunciato la leader dell’esecutivo Ue aprendo qualche spiraglio per il nucleare. “Nucleare e rinnovabili ci danno anche indipendenza“, ha aggiunto. 

                         A dicembre proposta su nucleare

“Abbiamo parlato anche di nucleare. Alcuni Paesi chiedono di inserirlo tra le fonti di energia non inquinanti”, ha confermato il presidente del Consiglio, Mario Draghi. “La Commissione procederà a una proposta a dicembre. Ci sono posizioni molto divisive in Consiglio. Vedremo quale nucleare e poi in ogni caso ci vuole moltissimo tempo“, ha aggiunto.

Il leader della Lega, Matteo Salvini, ha preso la palla al balzo: “Bene la Ue, anche in Italia occorre ripensare e superare il no al nucleare pulito e sicuro di ultima generazione, Lega pronta a presentare una proposta di legge”, ha dichiarato. Tornando a Bruxelles. Tutti sono d’accordo sull’ineluttabilità delle rinnovabili. Il Consiglio europeo sostiene fermamente questa strategia, nonostante i continui inconvenienti di Polonia, Ungheria e, in misura minore, della Repubblica Ceca. Non c’è nemmeno dubbio che il gas, considerato economico e stabile, si qualifichi come “energia di transizione”.

Ma ogni Stato membro ha una realtà energetica diversa e una propria percezione dell’attuale crisi dei prezzi, con “divergenze sulle cause, sugli effetti, sulla durata e su come affrontarla”, riconoscono fonti diplomatiche. La Germania non abbandonerà il carbone prima del 2040, ma cesserà con il nucleare nel 2022, mentre la Francia ha il secondo parco atomico più grande del mondo e vuole rafforzarlo. Il principale fornitore di gas della Spagna è l’Algeria, l’Irlanda lo importa dalla Scozia e la Finlandia lo ottiene dalla Russia, come faceva la Lituania fino a quando non ha cominciato a portarlo dalla Norvegia. Pertanto, la riflessione di ampio respiro, con profonde implicazioni politiche, economiche e sociali, deve tener conto “della diversità e della specificità delle situazioni degli Stati membri”, affermano le conclusioni approvate dal Consiglio.

Il vertice si è anche impegnato a valutare se “certi comportamenti commerciali” nei mercati del gas, dell’elettricità e dell’Ets “richiedano più misure normative”. Ci sono Paesi, come la Spagna, che ritengono che il mercato elettrico “non stia inviando i segnali di prezzo adeguati” mentre altri partner, come la Polonia, ritengono che l’energia stia diventando più costosa, anche a causa delle speculazioni sulle emissioni.

Le conclusioni di queste analisi saranno note nei prossimi mesi, anche se la premessa della Commissione è che non vi siano indicazioni di errori o manipolazioni. Uno dei temi al centro del dibattito energetico, che prende slancio di fronte alla necessità di rilasciare meno Co2 e ai prezzi elevati delle importazioni di idrocarburi, è l’energia nucleare, che rappresenta il 26% dell’elettricità nell’Ue e il 13% del consumo finale di energia.

Tredici dei 27 Stati membri dell’Ue dispongono di reattori nucleari e, sebbene alcuni si stiano muovendo verso l’abbandono di questa fonte di generazione poichè gli impianti esauriscono il loro ciclo di vita, dieci Paesi spingono per indentificarlo come fonte green. L’energia nucleare è “una fonte di energia economica, stabile e indipendente”, sostiene il gruppo di Paesi, guidato da Francia e composto da Bulgaria, Croazia, Repubblica Ceca, Finlandia, Ungheria, Polonia, Slovacchia, Slovenia e Romania. Vorrebbero che la generazione atomica fosse vista come un investimento sostenibile nelle regole della “tassonomia” che la Commissione europea prepara, in modo che apra le porte a condizioni di finanziamento amichevoli. Bruxelles, che si dichiara tecnologicamente neutrale, rimanda da anni questa decisione politica.

La crisi dei prezzi coincide con l’avvio dei negoziati legislativi per raggiungere l’obiettivo dell’Ue di accelerare il taglio delle emissioni di CO2 del 55% entro il 2030 rispetto al 1990. Polonia e Ungheria hanno già attaccato direttamente la proposta della Commissione europea, collegando l’aumento dei prezzi alle politiche climatiche e accusando la Commissione di mettere in pericolo le classi medie, una preoccupazione estrema a Bruxelles, sottolineano le fonti.

Crea anche incertezza non sapere quanto durerà l’escalation dei prezzi. La Commissione ritiene che la carenza diminuirà ad aprile, quando si prevede che il nuovo gasdotto russo Nord Stream 2 inizierà a pompare gas in Germania attraverso il Baltico. Altri paesi, come la Spagna, temono che possa trascinarsi. “Nessuno mi garantisce che questo aumento dei prezzi sarà risolto in pochi mesi”, ha dichiarato il presidente francese Francia, Emmanuel Macron, in conferenza stampa.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime

Germania. Il 39% delle nuove costruzioni è riscaldata con natural gas. – Destatis.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-10-24.

Destatis__001

Destatis. 39% of the residential buildings constructed in 2020 are heated by natural gas.

                         Pressrelease #N 060 from 13 October 2021

– Share of new dwellings with gas heating down almost by half in 20 years

– Consumers not yet affected by increases in natural gas prices: import prices of natural gas in August 2021 up 177.5% on a year earlier, consumer prices in September up 5.7%

– Households spent an average 150 euros per month on energy according to latest figures

* * * * * * *

Wiesbaden – At the beginning of the heating period, the focus is especially on the costs of energy sources used – above all natural gas. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reports that 39% of the total of just under 113,000 new buildings constructed in 2020 were equipped with gas heating. This means that natural gas was the second most important primary energy source after heat pumps.

The trend towards the fossil energy source of natural gas has been on the decline for years. In 2010, the share of new buildings heated by gas was 53%, in 2000 even 74%. Other fossil energy sources used for heating are heating oil and, to a smaller extent, electricity. Today, oil heating is rare in new residential buildings. In 2020, only 0.7% of the new buildings had oil heating, while 20 years earlier it was almost one in five new buildings (20%).

Instead, renewable energy sources are gaining in importance. Heat pumps, which are used for geothermal and environmental thermal energy, were the most important primary energy source in 2020. They were used as an energy source for heating in 46% of new buildings. This means that the proportion of new buildings that used renewable energy sources for heating was more than half (50.5%) for the first time in 2020.

                         Price increases for energy sources affect especially import prices and producer prices

Even though renewable energy sources are more and more establishing themselves in new buildings, mineral oil, in addition to natural gas, still has some importance in the housing stock. Roughly one quarter of all dwellings are still heated by oil. For these energy sources, price increases at upstream stages in the economic process have been observed for some time. First, CO2 pricing introduced at the beginning of 2021 has an effect and second, various coronavirus effects such as the more rapid recovery of the economy following the first lockdown phase play a role.

For example, import prices of natural gas rose markedly as of March 2021; in August 2021 they were by 177.5% higher than in the same month of the previous year, according to the latest figures. In August 2021, the prices of mineral oil, too, were markedly up (63.6%) year on year, the prices of electricity, which to a small extent is also used for heating, were up by 136.1%.

Marked increases were also recorded most recently for industrial producer prices. Natural gas prices in August 2021 were by 44.2% higher than in the same month a year earlier, with marked differences between the various consumption groups. The prices of heating oil rose by 63.6%. The increase in electricity prices was considerably smaller (+20.4%).

                         Differences in natural gas and heating oil prices are due to differences in access to the energy market

Consumers are not affected by natural gas price increases to the same extent as upstream stages in the economic process. In September 2021, natural gas prices were up 5.7% on a year earlier, which means that the increase was just slightly higher than that of the overall consumer price index (4.1%). The price increase for natural gas is due not only to the price rises at upstream stages in the economic process , including CO2 pricing, but also to the base effect caused by the temporary reduction of value-added tax rates in the previous year. In September 2021, consumers had to pay roughly 76.5% more for heating oil than a year earlier. Electricity prices were up 2.0% year on year in September 2021. “The different developments of natural gas and electricity on the one hand and of heating oil on the other are due to the difference in access consumers have to the energy market”, said Christoph-Martin Mai, Head of the Consumer Prices Section at the Federal Statistical Office. “Heating oil is purchased at current prices, whereas long-term contracts with energy suppliers are often applied to natural gas and electricity. Price changes in that area are usually made annually and with some lead time.” 

                         Households spent just under 6% of their consumption expenditure on energy

An average household’s expenditure on housing energy, that is among other things, electricity, gas and heating oil, amounted to 150 euros per month in 2019, which is 5.8% of household final consumption expenditure. Expenditure on electricity accounts for the largest proportion of expenditure on housing energy. It averaged 46% (roughly 70 euros per month) in 2019.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime, Unione Europea

Europa. Elettricità. 7 milioni già disconnessi per morosità. 80 milioni nei triboli.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-10-24.

2021-10-06__ Europa Elettricità 001

Gli aumenti delle materie prime energetiche comportano il susseguente aumento dei costi della energia elettrica e del gas al consumatore finale.

È quindi ovvio risultato che milioni di famiglie si vedano tagliare le utenze, le bollette le quali non sono in grado di pagare.

* * * * * * *

«Millions of people across Europe may not be able to afford to heat their homes this winter as gas and electricity prices soar»

«rising prices have intensified a longstanding problem tied to a combination of high energy costs, low household incomes and homes that aren’t energy efficient.»

«up to 80 million households across Europe were already struggling to keep their homes adequately warm before the pandemic»

«The European Union describes energy poverty as being unable to afford “proper indoor thermal comfort.”»

«→→ Now, price hikes are putting even more households at risk of being disconnected from power and gas grids because they can’t pay their bills ←←»

«Workers in retail, hospitality and the airline sector were hit especially hard, and many have lost their jobs»

«Seven million European households receive energy disconnection notices a year»

«Natural gas futures for October delivery have more than doubled over the past three months»

«Inflation data published Thursday shows that consumer energy prices are surging in France and Italy»

«Between 20% and 30% of Europe’s population is facing general poverty, while up to 60% are suffering from energy poverty in some countries»

«Bulgaria has the highest proportion of energy poor people in Europe at 31% of the population, followed by Lithuania at 28%, with the relatively warmer Cyprus at 21% and Portugal at 19%. Switzerland’s population is the least vulnerable to energy poverty at 0.3%, followed by Norway’s 1%»

«We should be seeing access to energy as a human right in the same way as we see access to water as a human right»

«The government will scrap some standing charges from consumers’ bills, which suppliers use to cover overheads related to renewable energy subsidies»

* * * * * * *

Il costo del natural gas e del carbone ha raggiunto in Europa aumenti di quasi il cinquecento per cento in un anno, ma parte non indifferente di questi aumenti è dovuto al carico di accise e tasse che vi gravano sopra.

Si attua così un meccanismo iniquamente perverso: per mantenere le sovvenzioni alle energie rinnovabili si mandano alla miseria milioni di Cittadini già in fascia di povertà.

È una situazione che grida vendetta a Dio ed agli uomini.

* * * * * * *


80 million European households struggle to stay warm. Rising energy costs will make the problem worse.

London (CNN Business) Millions of people across Europe may not be able to afford to heat their homes this winter as gas and electricity prices soar.

Experts, anti-poverty organizations and environmental campaigners are warning that the coronavirus pandemic and rising prices have intensified a longstanding problem tied to a combination of high energy costs, low household incomes and homes that aren’t energy efficient.

Recent research led by Stefan Bouzarovski, professor at the University of Manchester and chair of energy poverty research network Engager, found that up to 80 million households across Europe were already struggling to keep their homes adequately warm before the pandemic.

The European Union describes energy poverty as being unable to afford “proper indoor thermal comfort.” Only four European countries — France, Ireland, Slovakia and the United Kingdom — have official definitions, but experts say the problem is widespread.

Now, price hikes are putting even more households at risk of being disconnected from power and gas grids because they can’t pay their bills. Many are vulnerable because their incomes dropped and bills rose during the pandemic. Workers in retail, hospitality and the airline sector were hit especially hard, and many have lost their jobs.

“Since 2019 a lot has changed, but more than 12 million households [in Europe] were [already] in arrears with their utility bills,” said Louise Sunderland, senior adviser and policy analyst at the Regulatory Assistance Project, which focuses on the clean energy transition.

Seven million European households receive energy disconnection notices a year, according to the Right to Energy Coalition, an umbrella group that includes trade unions, environmental organizations and NGOs.

The pandemic made the problem even worse, said Sunderland, because many people are spending more time at home, increasing their energy consumption.

At the same time, energy prices are rising because gas suppliers are struggling to replenish stocks depleted by high demand for heating last winter and air conditioning over the hot summer. That scarcity has pushed consumer and wholesale prices to record levels.

Natural gas futures for October delivery have more than doubled over the past three months, according to data from the Dutch Title Transfer Facility, a major gas trading venue. Inflation data published Thursday shows that consumer energy prices are surging in France and Italy.

                         A longstanding problem

“The risk of falling into energy poverty within the European population is at double the risk of general poverty,” Bouzarovski told CNN Business.

Between 20% and 30% of Europe’s population is facing general poverty, while up to 60% are suffering from energy poverty in some countries, he said.

Bulgaria has the highest proportion of energy poor people in Europe at 31% of the population, followed by Lithuania at 28%, with the relatively warmer Cyprus at 21% and Portugal at 19%. Switzerland’s population is the least vulnerable to energy poverty at 0.3%, followed by Norway’s 1%.

Experts and campaigners have argued the European Union should legislate a ban on suppliers disconnecting households from their energy sources in the short term. But they warn that only reducing dependency on gas and introducing more renewables to the energy mix can tame price spikes in the longer term.

“It’s not clear why we don’t have an EU-wide disconnection ban,” said Bouzarovski, adding that implementation could be similar to how the bloc scrapped mobile phone roaming charges.

“We should be seeing access to energy as a human right in the same way as we see access to water as a human right,” said Martha Myers, climate justice and energy campaigner at Friends of the Earth Europe, which is part of the Right to Energy Coalition.

                         Civil unrest fears

Observers are also warning of the possibility of political unrest if governments don’t take action to help households.

“There could be a rise in ‘Gilet Jaunes’-type movements across Europe,” Bouzarovski said, referring to protests that rocked France in recent years.

Rising fuel prices sparked protests across Bulgaria in 2013 that brought down the government and caused smaller scale demonstrations in 2018.

France has announced a €100 ($116) one-off payment to nearly 6 million households already receiving energy vouchers from the government. Spain has moved to slash household energy taxes and impose a levy on some energy suppliers.

The Italian government has committed up to €3 billion ($3.5 billion) to subsidize up to 5.5 million of its most vulnerable citizens, according to Reuters. The government will scrap some standing charges from consumers’ bills, which suppliers use to cover overheads related to renewable energy subsidies.

European Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson said earlier this month that “there are tools” EU countries can deploy to address the situation.

“[Sales tax] and excise policy, targeted measures for energy poor and vulnerable consumers or temporary measures for households and small businesses, as well as direct support to consumers are all steps that can be taken, fully in line with the EU rules,” she said, following a meeting with energy ministers in Slovenia.

Pubblicato in: Economia e Produzione Industriale, Materie Prime, Problemia Energetici, Regno Unito

Regno Unito. Johnson deve scegliere tra ideologia green oppure autosufficienza energetica.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-10-21.

2021-10-20__ Johnson 001

Nota.

Ad articolo finito, è comparso questo articolo:

Net zero announcement: UK sets out plans to cut greenhouse gas emissions

Non indica però con chiarezza quale comportamento terrà il Regno Unito sullo sfruttamento dei nuovi campo di gas naturale.

* * * * * * *

«Britain has pledged to hit net zero emissions by 2050»

«Energy firms say new output can be part of phased decline»

«Activists want halt to new exploration immediately»

«Supply crunch sent global oil, gas prices soaring»

«Britain faces a fossil fuel dilemma: it can burnish its green credentials by halting new oil and gas development in the North Sea, yet doing so will leave it more reliant on imported fuel»

«How Britain charts a course to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 will be under scrutiny when it hosts the COP26 climate conference in Glasgow, Scotland, starting on Oct. 31»

«Vorlich oilfield. Neither legislation nor activism halted the development»

«If supply goes away and demand doesn’t change, that only has one consequence and that is an escalation in price rises»

«The challenge caused by shrinking domestic production and rising fuel imports has been felt across Europe. The European wholesale gas price is up more than 350% this year»

«Britain, which could once depend on its own fields for oil and gas to fire up its power stations, fuel its cars and heat its homes, has been a net energy importer since 2005»

«→→ It is the world’s biggest offshore wind power producer – and is expanding this resource rapidly. But that doesn’t power homes on windless days ←←»

«The purity of the (IEA) report is excellent, but the reality in practice for countries is about ensuring security of supply»

«Making the most of indigenous resources helps meet UK demand and contain price growth, providing secure supplies»

«In one case, Greenpeace sought to have a BP gas field licence scrapped over its emissions via a Scottish court – although the action failed»

«In another case, it is seeking to halt development of the Cambo field off the Shetland Isles, a field part owned by Royal Dutch Shell»

* * * * * * *

Il problema è chiaro e semplice.

Il Regno Unito ha ancora nel Mare del Nord molti campi di natural gas lo sfruttamento dei quali concorrerebbe notevolmente a ridurre la bolletta energetica, garantendo nel contempo un costante approvvigionamento svincolato dagli accadimenti esterni.

Si starà a vedere se nel Regno Unito comanda il governo legalmente eletto do Mr Boris Johnson oppure Greenpeace e le varie ngo di contorno.

* * * * * * *


Britain’s fossil fuel dilemma in the spotlight as climate talks near.

– Britain has pledged to hit net zero emissions by 2050

– Energy firms say new output can be part of phased decline

– Activists want halt to new exploration immediately

– Supply crunch sent global oil, gas prices soaring

*

London, Oct 19 (Reuters) – Britain faces a fossil fuel dilemma: it can burnish its green credentials by halting new oil and gas development in the North Sea, yet doing so will leave it more reliant on imported fuel.

How Britain charts a course to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 will be under scrutiny when it hosts the COP26 climate conference in Glasgow, Scotland, starting on Oct. 31.

Navigating that route has already proved challenging.

In June 2019, when Britain enshrined its 2050 net zero target in law, Greenpeace activists steered speedboats towards a BP platform in the North Sea brandishing a “Climate Emergency” banner to try to stop production starting from Vorlich oilfield.

Neither legislation nor activism halted the development. Production from Vorlich started in November 2020.

Oil majors say new production can play a role in managing decline, while campaigners are pressing for an immediate halt to new projects with publicity stunts and legal action.

The government, meanwhile, needs to keep the nation’s lights on as it smoothes over volatile energy markets and juggles competing demands over how to achieve its climate goals.

“If supply goes away and demand doesn’t change, that only has one consequence and that is an escalation in price rises,” BP Chief Executive Bernard Looney said this month.

Britain and other European states have already felt this acutely. Brent crude , a benchmark based on North Sea barrels, is up more than 60% this year, while the price of UK benchmark wholesale gas has risen more than 250%.

The challenge caused by shrinking domestic production and rising fuel imports has been felt across Europe. The European wholesale gas price is up more than 350% this year.

Britain, which could once depend on its own fields for oil and gas to fire up its power stations, fuel its cars and heat its homes, has been a net energy importer since 2005 as output from the North Sea has dwindled.

With the capacity of its gas storage facilities now only enough to last the nation a few days, Britain’s reliance on just-in-time supplies shipped in from Qatar or elsewhere leave it exposed when the market tightens, like now with the surge in demand as economies recover from the COVID-19 pandemic.

                         PRESSURE TO ACT

For activists, the answer is not turning the taps back on but rather reducing domestic fossil fuel consumption.

“We’re calling on Boris Johnson to stop pushing through new oil and gas projects,” said Greenpeace activist Philip Evans, addressing the British prime minister who has been pressing other countries to deepen climate commitments before COP26.

“If the government is worried about keeping the lights on there are things they can be doing to reduce demand,” Evans said, including improvements to home insulation, cleaner public transport and more investment in renewable power generation.

Around 70 scientists and academics sent an open letter published in Britain’s Independent newspaper this week calling on Johnson to stop allowing investment and licensing for new oil and gas fields, saying that “now is the time for bold political action”.

Britain has made progress in some areas. It is the world’s biggest offshore wind power producer – and is expanding this resource rapidly. But that doesn’t power homes on windless days.

Yet, there is rising pressure to act faster to curb fossil fuel use. The International Energy Agency said in a report the world must halt new oil and gas projects to achieve the 2015 Paris climate summit targets that aim to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2050 compared with pre-industrial levels.

“The purity of the (IEA) report is excellent, but the reality in practice for countries is about ensuring security of supply,” Anne-Marie Trevelyan told Reuters in June when she was still British minister of state for energy and clean growth.

Britain has not committed to ending North Sea exploration, taking a similar approach to Norway but not Denmark, another North Sea producer, which has halted new projects.

Britain has, however, been managing a decline, with production now half its 1999 peak at about 1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), or about 1% of global oil demand.

                         SUPPLY SECURITY

Oil and Gas UK (OGUK), an industry association, has committed to making the North Sea an operationally net zero basin by 2050, which means it aims to eliminate, capture or offset any residual emissions from producing oil and gas there.

It said in September that domestic production was cheaper and cleaner than imported gas, given shipping fuel creates emissions and because some other producing nations have poor environmental records.

“Making the most of indigenous resources helps meet UK demand and contain price growth, providing secure supplies with a lower carbon footprint than imports offer,” OGUK said.

Britain’s Oil and Gas Authority said gas extracted from the British North Sea had an average emission intensity of 22 kg carbon dioxide equivalent per barrel of oil equivalent, while imported LNG had an average intensity of 59 kg.

Yet, Greenpeace and other activists say these arguments miss the point: using fossil fuels must stop rather than simply trying to make using them cleaner.

To push for swifter action, they have taken campaigning to the courts.

In one case, Greenpeace sought to have a BP gas field licence scrapped over its emissions via a Scottish court – although the action failed.

In another case, it is seeking to halt development of the Cambo field off the Shetland Isles, a field part owned by Royal Dutch Shell.

“We’ve delivered a 12-foot oil-stained statue of Boris Johnson right to the gates of Downing Street calling him out as a monumental climate failure,” said Greenpeace’s Evans. “They can expect to see a lot more of Greenpeace in the court room.”

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime

Blocco Europeo. Record wholesale prices hanno indotto la stagflazione. – Financial Times.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-10-17.

2021-10-07__ FT 001

Il wholesale price del natural gas nel Blocco Europeo sale giorno dopo giorno, gravato da una congerie di tasse e balzelli volti a finanziare le energie rinnovabili prossime venture.

Però, nell’attesa che il sol dell’avvenire splenda radioso nel 2050, cioè quando tutti noi saremo morti, il pressante problema attuale è come pagare ora una risorsa naturale che alimenta buona parte delle nostre centrali elettriche.

«Dutch and British wholesale gas prices surged to record highs in several contracts on Tuesday afternoon amid wider energy market price hikes, ongoing supply concerns, colder weather forecasts and a cut in French nuclear generation due to a strike.

The November gas price at the Dutch TTF hub, a European benchmark, traded at a record 120.80, euros/euros per megawatt climbing more than 26% from Monday’s close.» [Reuters]

* * * * * * *

«Gas crunch hits government bond markets as energy prices surge»

«UK gilt yields at highest since May 2019 with natural gas prices above equivalent of $200 a barrel of oil»

«European natural gas prices shot to unprecedented heights on Tuesday, dragging down bond markets, particularly in the UK, in a sign that investors are anticipating wider economic damage»

«European gas contracts for delivery in November jumped by 23 per cent to €117.50 a megawatt hour, up from just €18 six months ago on the prospect of supply shortages over the winter months. UK prices also soared, breaching £3 a therm for the first time, with prices tripling in just the past two months»

«→→ The latest price gains mean gas in the UK and Europe is now trading at more than $200 a barrel of oil equivalent or almost three times the price of crude, with inflationary effects threatening to ripple through economies reliant on gas for heating and power generation ←←»

«Government debt in the eurozone and the US also weakened, with 10-year US Treasury yields climbing close to last week’s three-month high, as investors become increasingly concerned about inflation»

«→→ The rise is so dramatic that it’s feeding these concerns about stagflation ←←»

«But investors have questioned whether central banks can curb inflation driven by tight supplies in energy markets»

«Russia, the largest supplier of natural gas to Europe, has also restricted pipeline exports to long-term contracts only, despite clear signs traders want more spot market sales to help fill storage facilities»

«→→ Russian president Vladimir Putin on Tuesday described the situation in Europe as one of “hysteria and confusion”, blaming tight supplies on under-investment in fossil fuels as economies try to pivot towards renewable energy ←←»

«Surging energy prices are also putting pressure on governments and policymakers in Europe»

«Ursula von der Leyen, head of the European Commission, said on Tuesday that Brussels would explore setting up common strategic storage facilities for gas, warning about Europe’s heavy dependence on Russia for imports»

«Record wholesale prices have also led to the collapse of 10 retail energy providers in the UK since the start of August»

«The cost of supplying the average household in the UK with gas and electricity for a year has soared to more than £1,800, far above the £1,277 price cap»

* * * * * * *

La stagflazione è adesso di casa nel blocco europeo e ci rimarrà fino a tanto che l’attuale eurodirigenza non scompaia.

A quel punto, i sopravissuti potranno cercare di ricostruire qualcosa, sempre che il blocco europeo esista ancora.

* * * * * * *


Gas crunch hits government bond markets as energy prices surge

UK gilt yields at highest since May 2019 with natural gas prices above equivalent of $200 a barrel of oil.

European natural gas prices shot to unprecedented heights on Tuesday, dragging down bond markets, particularly in the UK, in a sign that investors are anticipating wider economic damage.

European gas contracts for delivery in November jumped by 23 per cent to €117.50 a megawatt hour, up from just €18 six months ago on the prospect of supply shortages over the winter months. UK prices also soared, breaching £3 a therm for the first time, with prices tripling in just the past two months.

The latest price gains mean gas in the UK and Europe is now trading at more than $200 a barrel of oil equivalent or almost three times the price of crude, with inflationary effects threatening to ripple through economies reliant on gas for heating and power generation. Traders are now pricing in a peak in the UK consumer price inflation rate at nearly 6 per cent in April next year.

Tuesday’s gas price surge added fuel to a recent drop in bond prices, particularly in the UK where concerns about rising prices have been felt most acutely. UK 10-year government bond yields surged to 1.09 per cent, the highest since May 2019.

Government debt in the eurozone and the US also weakened, with 10-year US Treasury yields climbing close to last week’s three-month high, as investors become increasingly concerned about inflation.

“Bond markets are trading off gas prices,” said Mike Riddell, a portfolio manager at Allianz Global Investors. “The rise is so dramatic that it’s feeding these concerns about stagflation.”

Longer-term inflation expectations have also shifted higher, extending a gilt sell-off that began last month when the Bank of England indicated it could raise interest rates as soon as this year.

But investors have questioned whether central banks can curb inflation driven by tight supplies in energy markets, which have rippled out from Europe to the wider world. The largest economies in Asia are also increasingly feeling the hit of record prices, including in coal markets, with both China and India experiencing short supplies.

The tightness in energy markets stems, in part, from the rapid rebound in economic activity and energy demand from the depths of the pandemic. But gas demand has also risen in Asia, where governments are trying to reduce reliance on highly polluting coal. Europe’s domestic production has also fallen.

Russia, the largest supplier of natural gas to Europe, has also restricted pipeline exports to long-term contracts only, despite clear signs traders want more spot market sales to help fill storage facilities.

Russian president Vladimir Putin on Tuesday described the situation in Europe as one of “hysteria and confusion”, blaming tight supplies on under-investment in fossil fuels as economies try to pivot towards renewable energy.

Ukraine and other eastern European countries have accused the Kremlin of attempting to “weaponise” natural gas supplies to try secure quick approval to start up the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and as part of a backlash against the push towards renewable energy.

Nord Stream 2 will carry Russian natural gas to Germany through the Baltic Sea, bypassing Ukraine, and was targeted by US sanctions until a deal between Angela Merkel and President Joe Biden earlier this year.

Surging energy prices are also putting pressure on governments and policymakers in Europe. Ursula von der Leyen, head of the European Commission, said on Tuesday that Brussels would explore setting up common strategic storage facilities for gas, warning about Europe’s heavy dependence on Russia for imports, while praising Norway for taking steps to increase gas production.

“We are very grateful Norway is stepping up but this does not seem to be the case for Russia,” von der Leyen said. Brussels is under pressure to act in the face of record natural gas prices that have forced governments in Spain, Italy, France and Greece to agree subsidies to protect households from higher costs.

Record wholesale prices have also led to the collapse of 10 retail energy providers in the UK since the start of August, requiring millions of customers to be transferred to other companies.

The cost of supplying the average household in the UK with gas and electricity for a year has soared to more than £1,800, far above the £1,277 price cap.

Pubblicato in: Commercio, Materie Prime

Indonesia. Settembre21. Export +47.64%, Import +40.1%. Surplus 4.37 mld Usd.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-10-16.

2021-10-16__ Indonesia 001

La Indonesia prosegue con decisione la sua crescita economica, nonostante la pandemia e la crisi economica globale, grazie alla vendita di materie prime.

* * * * * * *

«Exports +47.6% y/y, vs +51.6% in poll»

«Imports +40.3% y/y, vs +50% in poll»

«$4.37 bln surplus is bigger than $3.84 bln seen in poll»

«Indonesia’s September trade surplus was larger than expected as exports surged on the back of booming commodity prices, government data showed on Friday»

«The resource-rich country booked a September trade surplus of $4.37 billion»

«That was above the median estimate of $3.84 billion»

«Indonesia recorded an all-time high surplus of $4.74 billion in August. It has posted a trade surplus every month since May 2020»

«The trade surplus would also help Southeast Asia’s largest economy narrow its current account deficit, making its financial market less vulnerable to capital outflows and allowing the central bank to keep monetary policy accommodative for longer»

«Bank Indonesia is expected to keep its main policy rates unchanged until the third quarter of 2022»

«Shipments of coal and copper remained strong, each rising more than 160%, while overseas sales of palm oil products, steel and oil and gas also registered high growth»

* * * * * * *

Indonesia. Carbone. Dice di volerlo dismettere e costruisce nuove centrali termiche.

Indonesia. Maggio21. Import +68.68%, Export +58.76%, anno su anno.

Indonesia. Export +51.94%, Import +29.93%, anno su anno.

Indonesia. Marzo21. Export +30.47%, Import +25.73%, anno su anno. – Statistics Indonesia.

Indonesia. Inaugurato il porto strategico di Patimban.

Indonesia. Nuova legge sul lavoro. Ambientalisti sul piede di guerra.

Indonesia. Bloccato l’export del nickel estrattivo.

Indonesia. La società civile si ribella e riporta l’omosessualità nel codice penale.

* * * * * * *

L’Indonesia presenta una crescita economica tumultuosa sicuramente grazie all’export di materie prime essenziali per gli acquirenti, ma soprattutto grazie ad una Realpolitik che nulla cede all’ideologia imperante in occidente.

Avere un governo dotato di senso pratico è una inestimabile risorsa.

* * * * * * *


Indonesia Sept trade surplus beats estimates on strong commodities.

– Exports +47.6% y/y, vs +51.6% in poll

– Imports +40.3% y/y, vs +50% in poll

– $4.37 bln surplus is bigger than $3.84 bln seen in poll

– Trade surplus reaffirms f’cast for cenbank to stand pat on rates

* * *

Jakarta, Oct 15 (Reuters) – Indonesia’s September trade surplus was larger than expected as exports surged on the back of booming commodity prices, government data showed on Friday, cementing hopes for a quick economic recovery.

The resource-rich country booked a September trade surplus of $4.37 billion, data from the country’s statistics bureau showed. That was above the median estimate of $3.84 billion, according to analysts polled earlier by Reuters.

Indonesia recorded an all-time high surplus of $4.74 billion in August. It has posted a trade surplus every month since May 2020.

Analysts said robust exports should cushion the economic impact of Indonesia’s devastating COVID-19 wave in the third quarter.

The trade surplus would also help Southeast Asia’s largest economy narrow its current account deficit, making its financial market less vulnerable to capital outflows and allowing the central bank to keep monetary policy accommodative for longer.

“The surplus is still large because of skyrocketing commodity prices, which is positive for our economy and the (U.S. dollar) liquidity outlook,” said Fakhrul Fulvian, chief economist at Trimegah Sekuritas.

“This means Bank Indonesia will keep interest rates steady next week,” he added, referring to a central bank policy meeting scheduled to take place from Monday to Tuesday.

Bank Indonesia is expected to keep its main policy rates unchanged until the third quarter of 2022, according to a new Reuters poll.

September exports grew 47.64% to $20.60 billion from a year earlier, compared with the poll’s 51.57% growth forecast.

Shipments of coal and copper remained strong, each rising more than 160%, while overseas sales of palm oil products, steel and oil and gas also registered high growth.

September imports rose 40.31% to $16.23 billion, versus the poll’s 50% forecast, with consumer goods imports surging nearly 60%.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Materie Prime

Cina. Aumenta l’estrazione di carbone di 98 mln tonnellate all’anno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-10-14.

2021-10-10__ China Thermal Coal Prices 001

«China calls for huge boost in coal output to fight power crunch»

«Orders immediate rise in output at 72 mines in Inner Mongolia»

«Increase totals more than 98 mln tonnes of capacity»

«Chinese officials have ordered more than 70 mines in Inner Mongolia to ramp up coal production by nearly 100 million tonnes as the country battles its worst power crunch and coal shortages in years»

«The authorities face record-high prices and shortages of electricity that have prompted power rationing across the country, crippling industrial output»

«In an urgent notice dated Oct. 7, the Inner Mongolia regional energy department asked the cities of Wuhai, Ordos and Hulunbuir, as well as Xilingol League, or prefecture, to notify 72 mines that they may operate at stipulated higher capacities immediately»

«The (government’s) coal task force shall urge miners to raise output with no compromise, while the power task team shall have the generating firms guarantee meeting the winter electricity and heating demand»

«The 72 mines listed by the Inner Mongolia energy bureau, most of which are open pits, previously had authorised annual capacity of 178.45 million tonnes»

«The notice proposed they increase their production capacity by 98.35 million tonnes combined»

«Inner Mongolia is China’s second-biggest coal-producing region, churning out just over 1 billion tonnes in 2020 and accounting for more than a quarter of the national total»

«Meanwhile, coal consumption is climbing as northeastern China has kicked off the winter heating season, with major power plants having stockpiles for around 10 days of use»

* * * * * * *

Cina. Avvia un ciclopico programma nucleare.

Cina. Centrali elettriche nucleari. 37 reattori attivi, 60 in costruzione, 179 programmati.

Cina. 2020. Attivate centrali a carbone per 38.4 GW ed in costruzione per altri 36.9 GW.

China Promotes Climate Goal, and Builds New Coal Plants

China Is Planning to Build 43 New Coal-Fired Power Plants. Can It Still Keep Its Promises to Cut Emissions?

Kremlin. Putin. La Russia potenzia estrazione ed esportazione del carbone.

Asia. Trend energetici. Il carbone domina nella produzione di corrente elettrica.

Energia. Il problema degli elettrodotti a lunga distanza. Le dissipazioni.

* * * * * * *

In una simile situazione, i problemi del presente sono troppo pressanti per disquisire sui vantaggi ottenibili, si fa per dire, nel 2050. COP26 è sempre più destinata al fallimento.

* * * * * * *


China calls for huge boost in coal output to fight power crunch.

– Orders immediate rise in output at 72 mines in Inner Mongolia

– Increase totals more than 98 mln tonnes of capacity

*

Beijing/Singapore, Oct 8 (Reuters) – Chinese officials have ordered more than 70 mines in Inner Mongolia to ramp up coal production by nearly 100 million tonnes as the country battles its worst power crunch and coal shortages in years.

The authorities face record-high prices and shortages of electricity that have prompted power rationing across the country, crippling industrial output.

The proposed increase would make up nearly 3% of China’s total thermal coal consumption.

In an urgent notice dated Oct. 7, the Inner Mongolia regional energy department asked the cities of Wuhai, Ordos and Hulunbuir, as well as Xilingol League, or prefecture, to notify 72 mines that they may operate at stipulated higher capacities immediately, provided they ensure safe production.

An official with the region’s energy bureau confirmed the notice but declined to say how long the production boost would be allowed to last.

The notice followed a meeting on the same day during which the regional authorities mapped out measures for winter energy supplies in response to mandates from China’s State Council, or Cabinet, the state-run Inner Mongolia Daily reported on Friday.

“The (government’s) coal task force shall urge miners to raise output with no compromise, while the power task team shall have the generating firms guarantee meeting the winter electricity and heating demand,” the newspaper said.

“This demonstrates the government is serious about raising local coal production to ease the shortage,” said a Beijing-based trader, who estimated the production boost may take up to two to three months to materialise.

The 72 mines listed by the Inner Mongolia energy bureau, most of which are open pits, previously had authorised annual capacity of 178.45 million tonnes.

The notice proposed they increase their production capacity by 98.35 million tonnes combined, according to Reuters calculations.

“It will help alleviate the coal shortage but cannot eliminate the issue,” said Lara Dong, senior director with IHS Markit.

“The government will still need to apply power rationing to ensure the balancing of the coal and power markets over the winter,” she said.

China’s Zhengzhou thermal coal futures briefly slumped 6% on Friday morning after opening up nearly 3%. The contract was down 3.2% at 1,287 yuan ($197.50) per tonne at 0400 GMT.

                         RAISING IMPORTS

Inner Mongolia is China’s second-biggest coal-producing region, churning out just over 1 billion tonnes in 2020 and accounting for more than a quarter of the national total, official data show.

However, that output was down 8% in 2020 and was falling every month from April through July this year, partly due to an anti-corruption probe initiated last year by Beijing targeting the coal sector, which led to lower production as miners were banned from producing above approved capacity.

Neighbouring Shanxi province, China’s biggest coal region, had to close 27 coal mines this week due to flooding.

Coal inventories at major Chinese ports were at 52.34 million tonnes in late September before a week-long national holiday that started Oct 1, down 18% from the same period last year, data compiled by China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association showed

Meanwhile, coal consumption is climbing as northeastern China has kicked off the winter heating season, with major power plants having stockpiles for around 10 days of use, down from more than 20 days last year.

To ensure power and heating supply to residential users, China has reopened dozens of other mines and approved several new ones.

The government has also called for “appropriately” raising coal imports to levels on par with last year, analysts said, after imports fell nearly 10% in the first eight months.

It has even released Australian coal from bonded storage despite a nearly year-long unofficial import ban on coal imports from Australia, and utilities have tapped rare supply sources like Kazakhstan and the United States.

                         MORE COAL NEEDED

Extra production in Inner Mongolia should help ease China’s supply crunch but even an annual 98 million tonnes may not add much before winter hits, analysts and traders said.

Analysts from Guosheng Securities expect China’s thermal coal shortage to top 116 million tonnes in 2021, despite some 31 million tonnes in newly approved capacity gradually coming on line from the fourth quarter.

“More (announcements to boost coal output) will be needed and we expect it to come,” said James Stevenson, coal analyst from consultancy IHS Markit, adding that China has used all its main tools to push domestic supply and manage demand.

Benchmark spot thermal coal prices in the northern port of Qinhuangdao hit a record high of 1,079 yuan a tonne in late September.

As coal prices continue to rise, more power plants are seeing their balance sheets fall into the red and even face shutting down.

“Many more people and businesses would have been sitting in the dark had China just built coal power plants and not expanded solar and wind capacity,” said Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, noting volatile fossil fuel prices have caused shortages, not the replacement of fossil fuels with renewables.

Pubblicato in: Agricoltura, Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime

Mondo. Grano duro. Produzione dimezzata e costi cresciuti del 74% anno su anno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-10-11.

2021-10-03__ Italia Pasta 001

«le aziende agroalimentari hanno bisogno di molta elettricità e se questa diventa più cara ciò ha ripercussioni sul prezzo finale del chilo di spaghetti che compriamo al supermercato»

«Magari non subito, all’inizio, per non rischiare di deprimere la domanda, proveranno ad assorbire lo shock dei prezzi elettrici magari assottigliando i profitti, ma poi le imprese dovranno ribaltare questi costi sul consumatore»

«Il motivo principale è che nel mondo si è ridotto il raccolto del grano negli ultimi mesi, in particolare in Nordamerica anche a causa del cambiamento climatico, che ha ridotto del 46% la produzione di grano in Canada e di circa il 50% negli Usa»

«Il Canada, in particolare, che sembra essere il cuore del problema, ha ridotto la produzione di grano duro da 6,5 milioni di tonnellate a sole 4,5 nel 2021»

«→→ Il prezzo del grano duro cresciuto del 74% ←←»

«superiore a quello del 36,6% del grano tenero, a quello del 50,9% del mais, o del 49,8% dell’orzo»

«Quello che succede Oltreoceano ci riguarda da vicino perché una parte importante della pasta che compriamo in realtà non viene prodotta con grano italiano»

«le aziende che producono pasta devono importare almeno il 40% del grano duro dall’estero»

«Ma c’è qualcosa di ancora peggio dell’impennata dei prezzi della pasta, ed è la sua carenza»

«Oggi il costo del grano duro sfiora i 500 euro a tonnellata con una crescita del 60% rispetto al 2020»

* * * * * * *

I prezzi della pasta si adegueranno rapidamente nel tempo, e la pasta asciutta diventerà un piatto esclusivo per doviziosi appetiti.

Ed il pane? Lo venderanno nelle gioiellerie.

* * * * * * *


Prezzo della pasta fuori controllo, il grano cresce del 74%.

Cosa unisce il prezzo della pasta al sugo che ci cuciniamo e mangiamo a casa a cena con l’impennata dei futures del gas che è tra i sintomi e tra le cause del grande incremento del costo dell’energia? Semplice: da un lato le aziende agroalimentari hanno bisogno di molta elettricità e se questa diventa più cara ciò ha ripercussioni sul prezzo finale del chilo di spaghetti che compriamo al supermercato (a proposito: la pasta più comprata in Italia è quella della Barilla, ma nella top10 c’è anche la pasta Rummo e la Divella).

                         Cosa sta succedendo al prezzo della pasta?

Magari non subito, all’inizio, per non rischiare di deprimere la domanda, proveranno ad assorbire lo shock dei prezzi elettrici magari assottigliando i profitti, ma poi le imprese dovranno ribaltare questi costi sul consumatore. È così che si forma l’inflazione che, non a caso, dopo anni in cui era sostanzialmente scomparsa, è tornata in Italia, con un valore del 2,1% (3% nell’area euro).

Dall’altro ci sono ragioni specifiche per cui l’aumento del prezzo della pasta sarà soprattutto in futuro ben superiore al 2-3% medio. Il motivo principale è che nel mondo si è ridotto il raccolto del grano negli ultimi mesi, in particolare in Nordamerica anche a causa del cambiamento climatico, che ha ridotto del 46% la produzione di grano in Canada e di circa il 50% negli Usa. Il Canada, in particolare, che sembra essere il cuore del problema, ha ridotto la produzione di grano duro da 6,5 milioni di tonnellate a sole 4,5 nel 2021.

                         Il prezzo del grano duro cresciuto del 74%

Quello che succede Oltreoceano ci riguarda da vicino perché una parte importante della pasta che compriamo in realtà non viene prodotta con grano italiano. Non potrebbe essere altrimenti, considerando che mangiamo così tanta pasta che la produzione nazionale di grano non basta a soddisfare la domanda. Ogni italiano consuma circa 25 kg di pasta ogni anno, cioè più di 2 kg al mese: record mondiale. Dopo di noi, nella classifica dei popoli che consumano più spaghetti, rigatoni, tortiglioni, ci sono i greci con, però, appena 11kg l’anno a testa. Per fare fronte a tale domanda le aziende che producono pasta devono importare almeno il 40% del grano duro dall’estero.

                         Perché il prezzo della pasta aumenta?

Ed è proprio la quotazione del grano duro quello che ultimamente ha subìto il maggiore incremento di prezzo rispetto agli altri cereali. Nella quarta settimana di settembre secondo l’Ismea (Istituto di Servizi per il Mercato Agricolo Alimentare) mediamente ha visto un aumento del 74%, superiore a quello del 36,6% del grano tenero, a quello del 50,9% del mais, o del 49,8% dell’orzo, che pure quindi soffrono dello stesso problema.

Per di più c’è stato, nell’ultimo anno, un calo della già insufficiente produzione nazionale, aggravato dalla preferenza dell’industria per grani più proteici, tipicamente stranieri invece di quelli del Sud Italia. Ma il calo della superficie coltivata a grano, e in particolare a grano duro, è stata provocata anche dal fatto, dicono le associazioni degli agricoltori, che ai produttori rimane solo il 13% del valore prodotto, mentre il grosso dei profitti va a valle della filiera, alle industrie alimentari e ai distributori. Un problema, questo, che del resto interessa un po’ tutto il settore agricolo italiano

                         L’effetto sull’andamento del prezzo della pasta

Consideriamo inoltre che l’incremento dei prezzi a livello mondiale porta a stoccare più grano possibile, cioè porta all’accaparramento, e induce i coltivatori ad aspettare a vendere, sperando in ulteriori incrementi del prezzo del grano duro. Cosa che si trasforma in una profezia auto-avverantesi: non vendo il grano perché mi aspetto che il prezzo aumenti e proprio per il fatto che non lo vendo il prezzo aumenta.

La previsione è che quindi il prezzo della pasta fresca o secca sia destinato ad aumentare in prossimità del Natale mediamente di 20 centesimi a confezione, ovvero circa del 20%. Non può che essere così se i costi del grano, quelli energetici e quelli logistici, anch’essi in crescita nella fase post-Covid, costituiscono l’80% dei costi di produzione per i pastifici.

                         La disponibilità di grano duro

Ma c’è qualcosa di ancora peggio dell’impennata dei prezzi della pasta, ed è la sua carenza. Se la crisi produttiva nordamericana non si risolverà, semplicemente potrebbe non esserci grano duro per tutti e si andrà incontro a una scarsità anche del prodotto finale.

Tutto ciò potrebbe rappresentare un’occasione per superare quegli ostacoli a una ripresa della coltivazione nazionale, che potrebbe tornare ad aumentare, mettendo a coltura più ettari, sulla spinta di una maggiore convenienza economica. Ma si tratta di cambiamenti strutturali che richiedono tempo. E i mercati del grano sono molto più veloci.

                         Aumenta (lentamente) anche il prezzo del grano tenero

Il prezzo del grano tenero è quello che è aumentato di meno: solo 36,6%. Questo tipo di grano viene utilizzato soprattutto per la produzione di pasta all’uovo, mentre il grano duro è usato dalle grandi industrie per la pasta secca. Il prezzo della pasta all’uovo, quindi, dovrebbe essere quello meno a rischio di aumento. Per ora. Sì, perché se si guarda all’andamento del prezzo del grano tenero si scopre che l’aumento è stato lento, a volte lentissimo, ma costante a differenza dell’andamento del prezzo del grano duro ha subìto una vera e propria impennata negli ultimi mesi a partire da luglio. Il fatto è che i motivi di fondo della crescita del prezzo sono gli stessi, ecco perché ci si aspetta che anche il grano tenero raggiunga lo stesso livello di aumento.

                         Cosa succederà al prezzo del pane

Attenzione. L’aumento del prezzo dei cereali non avrà ricadute solo sul costo di un chilo di pasta, ma anche sul pane. I produttori pronosticano un euro in più al chilo. Un incremento ritenuto inevitabile. Oggi il costo del grano duro sfiora i 500 euro a tonnellata con una crescita del 60% rispetto al 2020. Il prezzo all’ingrosso della semola è salito di quasi il 30% in agosto che corrisponde a un rotondo 60% in più rispetto al 2020. Infine: il prezzo del grano tenero che, come detto, è salito più lentamente, segna comunque una crescita del 35% sul 2020 a 250 euro per tonnellata.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime

Materie Prime. Mercati Internazionali. I prezzi stanno sempre crescendo.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-10-11.

2021-10-11__ Materie prime 001

Si tenga presente come l’apprezzamento del dollaro sull’euro renda ancor più oneroso l’approvvigionamento del blocco europeo, i cui conti sono regolato appunto in dollari americani.

2021-10-11__ Materie prime 002

Questi sono i prezzi delle materie prime sui mercati internazionali, aggiornati all’8 ottobre.

2021-10-11__ Materie prime 003

Il natural gas ha un prezzo di 5.606 (+120.80%) anno su anno, ma sul mercato europeo il TTF Gas val 96.58 (+405.07%), sempre anno su anno.

Ma tutto il comparto energetico evidenzia incrementi percentuali a due cifre.

Tra i metalli rame, acciaio e litio crescono del 21.74%, 40.05% e del 254.84%, rispettivamente.

Ma anche il comparto agroalimentare non scherza affatto. Olio di palma, zucchero, caffè cotone, canola ed avena hanno tutti rincari a due cifre.

Tra le materie prime industriali spiccano il carbone (191.93%) e la soda (136.01%).

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In pratica, non esiste settore economico che non sia severamente colpito dagli aumenti di questo livello.

Tutto questo genera una inflazione importata, destinata a durare per un lungo tempo.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime

Inverno21. Si dice che sarà gelido e con i prezzi del natural gas saliti alle stelle.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-10-10.

Lago Baikala ghiacciato con bolle ghiacciate di metano 001

Previsioni meteo inverno 2021/22, torna la Nina: in Italia freddo gelido e forti nevicate

«Secondo le previsioni, la Nina spingerebbe l‘Anticiclone russo siberiano verso l’Europa orientale, portando aria gelida in Italia e possibili nevicate anche intense.

L’ondata più fredda è attesa tra gennaio e febbraio. Dicembre 2021 non dovrebbe essere uno dei mesi più freddi del prossimo inverno. Quello più gelido, invece, potrebbe essere febbraio 2022.

La Nina consiste in un raffreddamento della temperatura delle acque superficiali dell’Oceano Pacifico centrale e orientale, condizionando conseguentemente il clima del nostro Pianeta, facendo sentire i suoi effetti anche in Europa e in Italia.»

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«Regional natural gas markets in the United States are seeing prices for this winter surge along with global record highs – suggesting that the energy bills causing headaches in Europe and Asia will hit the world’s top gas producer before long»

«Gas prices in Europe and Asia have more than tripled this year, causing manufacturers to curtail activity from Spain to Britain and sparking power crises in China»

«→→ The benchmark U.S. natural gas contract has been rallying, lately hitting seven-year highs, but its $5.62 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) price is a far cry from the $30-plus being paid in Europe and Asia. ←←»

«However, the U.S. market is worried about the coming cold, particularly in New England and California – where prices for gas to be delivered this winter are far above the nationwide benchmark. In New England, buyers are expecting gas to cost more than $20 per mmBtu»

«U.S. gas currently being delivered to the Henry Hub terminal in Louisiana, the nation’s benchmark, recently surpassed $6 for the first time since 2014. For January that price is in the same range, suggesting buyers think the country as a whole will have ample pipeline and storage access to keep fuel flowing this winter»

«→→ Gas-fired power plants are expected to produce about 49% of the electricity generated in New England ←←»

«→→ Prices at the Southern California citygate for January 2022 were trading over $13 this week, which would be a record outside of February 2021 ←←»

«Just 4% of the electricity produced in California will come from hydro facilities this year, according to federal projections, down from an average of 14% over the past five years»

«Analysts expect New England to start burning oil sooner than usual this year. Notably, during an extreme cold event starting in late December 2017, oil spiked to 27% of overall power generation, compared with less than 1% earlier that month»

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Si tenga ben presente come i prezzi del natural gas negli Stati Uniti differiscano da quelli praticati nel blocco europeo, ove sono sottoposti a severi carichi fiscali.

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Global natgas price surge looms for United States this winter.

Regional natural gas markets in the United States are seeing prices for this winter surge along with global record highs – suggesting that the energy bills causing headaches in Europe and Asia will hit the world’s top gas producer before long.

Gas prices in Europe and Asia have more than tripled this year, causing manufacturers to curtail activity from Spain to Britain and sparking power crises in China.

The United States has been shielded from that global crunch because it has plenty of gas supply, most of which stays in the country since U.S. export capacity is still relatively small.

The benchmark U.S. natural gas contract has been rallying, lately hitting seven-year highs, but its $5.62 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) price is a far cry from the $30-plus being paid in Europe and Asia.

However, the U.S. market is worried about the coming cold, particularly in New England and California – where prices for gas to be delivered this winter are far above the nationwide benchmark. In New England, buyers are expecting gas to cost more than $20 per mmBtu.

High winter prices are nothing new for New England and California, where the limited number of pipelines into both regions regularly become constrained on the coldest days. But this winter could be worse.

Both regions have spent years aggressively moving away from fossil fuels through regulations, power plant retirements and carbon pricing that makes power from fossil-fired generation, particularly coal, more expensive.

U.S. gas currently being delivered to the Henry Hub terminal in Louisiana, the nation’s benchmark, recently surpassed $6 for the first time since 2014. For January that price is in the same range, suggesting buyers think the country as a whole will have ample pipeline and storage access to keep fuel flowing this winter.

“Henry Hub prices continue to climb for the winter months, but we should see even bigger increases on the East and West Coasts for New England and California,” said Matt Smith, lead oil analyst for the Americas at commodity analytics firm Kpler.

In New England, gas for January delivery is soaring, trading this week at more than $22 at the region’s Algonquin hub , which would be the highest price paid in a month since January and February of 2014.

That reflects the region, which turns to liquefied natural gas (LNG) when its pipelines become congested, will have to compete with buyers in Europe and Asia already paying a lot more for the super-cooled fuel.

Gas-fired power plants are expected to produce about 49% of the electricity generated in New England. That is in line with the last five years, but overall demand is rising as the economy has recovered.

“What is driving gas prices for us is expected increased demand for pipeline gas as the economy recovers, and supply is catching up after pandemic low demand,” said Caroline Pretyman, a spokesperson at Eversource Energy (ES.N), New England’s biggest energy provider.

                         CALIFORNIA DREAMIN’ ON A WINTER’S DAY

Prices at the Southern California citygate for January 2022 were trading over $13 this week, which would be a record outside of February 2021, when the Texas freeze pushed gas prices to record levels in many parts of the country.

Prices are up in California because the state has been suffering through a long drought that has restricted its ability to generate electricity through hydropower. Solar has also been constrained by smoke cover from wildfires, analysts said.

As a result, the state has relied more on gas-fired plants, which are expected to account for about 45% of electricity generated this winter, above the five-year average of 41% as the drought limits hydropower supplies, according to federal projections. read more

Just 4% of the electricity produced in California will come from hydro facilities this year, according to federal projections, down from an average of 14% over the past five years.

Unlike New England, California has access to gas supplies from more regions including the Permian shale in Texas and New Mexico, the Rocky Mountains and Canada.

New England imports roughly 16 billion cubic feet (bcf) of LNG during the winter, equivalent to about 5% of its winter gas consumption. However, competition from Europe and Asia means those shipments will come at a dear cost.

Some power generators have another option – switching to burning oil. Right now, fuel oil costs about three times as much as natural gas, so that kind of switch will only happen as gas prices rise. Oil also emits about 30% more carbon dioxide and other pollutants.

Analysts expect New England to start burning oil sooner than usual this year. Notably, during an extreme cold event starting in late December 2017, oil spiked to 27% of overall power generation, compared with less than 1% earlier that month, according to ISO New England, the region’s grid operator.