Pubblicato in: Cina, Geopolitica Mondiale, Problemia Energetici, Sistemi Politici

Cina. Contratti petroliferi in yuan convertibili in oro.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-09-06.

2017-09-04__ChinaOilImportPie_article_main_image

«Dum Romae consulitur, Saguntum expugnatur.»

(Tito Livio, Storie, XXI, 7, 1)


Per comprendere a fondo cosa stia succedendo sarebbe opportuno aver ben presente almeno alcuni aspetti della situazione internazionale.

«Da un punto di vista meramente economico, se si considera il pil per potere di acquisto, il mondo genera 108,036,500 milioni Usd, la Cina 17,617,300 (16.31%) e gli Stati Uniti 17,418,00 (16.12%). L’Eurozona rende conto di 11,249,482 (10.41%) ed il Gruppo dei G7 di 31.825,293 (29.46%). Però i Brics conteggiano un pil ppa di 32,379,625 Usd, ossia il 29.97% del pil ppa mondiale. I Brics valgono come i paesi del G7.

Di conseguenza, la voce dell’Occidente vale nel mondo al massimo per il 29.46%, ma quella degli Stati Uniti vale solo il 16.12% e quella dell’Eurozona uno scarno 10.41%.»

*

Quanti ragionassero ancora con la visione dell’Occidente padrone del mondo incorrerebbero in un serio errore percettivo: questo era il modo di pensare tipico del passato, ma inconsistente con la situazione attuale e, soprattutto, con quella futura: il Gruppo dei G7 vale meno di quello dei Brics, ed ancor meno di quello dei Brics Plus.

Cina. Quanzhou. I Brics decidono cosa farsene dell’Occidente.

Brics. Il Summit di settembre a Xiamen. Ripudio dell’Occidente.

Cina. Xiamen. Brics Plus alla conquista del mondo.

Cina. Banche Cinesi e Belt and Road. Yuan come valuta internazionale.

^ ^ ^

Lord Keynes e gli autori post-keynesiani in Cina sono studiati nella storia dell’economia: le loro teorie hanno portato al suicidio dell’Occidente e gli Orientali non hanno nessuna intenzione di seguirli. Li lasciano volentieri ai loro contorsionismi mentali ed alla pratica dell’lgbt, da loro peraltro considerata reato e, quindi, penalmente perseguibile.

Cina. Inversione di rotta. Inizia la riduzione del debito.

Trump. Il debito sovrano totale da gennaio è sceso di 102.365 miliardi.

* * * * * * *

«Yuan-denominated contract will let exporters circumvent US dollar»

*

«China is expected shortly to launch a crude oil futures contract priced in yuan and convertible into gold»

*

«The contract could become the most important Asia-based crude oil benchmark, given that China is the world’s biggest oil importer»

*

«move will allow exporters such as Russia and Iran to circumvent U.S. sanctions by trading in yuan»

*

«To further entice trade, China says the yuan will be fully convertible into gold on exchanges in Shanghai and Hong Kong»

*

«It is a mechanism which is likely to appeal to oil producers that prefer to avoid using dollars, and are not ready to accept that being paid in yuan for oil sales to China is a good idea either»

*

«By creating a gold contract settled in renminbi [an alternative name for the yuan], Russia may now sell oil to China for renminbi, then take whatever excess currency it earns to buy gold in Hong Kong. As a result, Russia does not have to buy Chinese assets or switch the proceeds into dollars …. It’s a transfer of holding their assets in black liquid to yellow metal. It’s a strategic move swapping oil for gold, rather than for U.S. Treasuries, which can be printed out of thin air»

*

«China proposed pricing oil in yuan to Saudi Arabia in late July, according to Chinese media. It is unclear if Saudi Arabia will yield to its biggest customer, but Beijing has been reducing Saudi Arabia’s share of its total imports, which fell from 25% in 2008 to 15% in 2016. Chinese oil imports rose 13.8% year-on-year during the first half of 2017»

*

«The rules of the global oil game may begin to change enormously»

* * * * * * *

Conclusioni.

Fonti di informazione e difficoltà di tenersi informati.

I grandi media internazionali hanno taciuto sul fatto, ma questo esiste e resta nella realtà dei fatti.

Alcuni elementi da valorizzare.

– La Cina è il maggiore importatore di petrolio e gas naturale al mondo;

– L’economia cinese vale il 16.31% del pil mondiale, ma agendo sempre in collaborazione e sintonia con i Brics, in effetti ne vale 29.97%: ciò che fa determina ciò che accadrà nel resto del mondo;

– Tutto il circuito Obor, One Belt One Road, è finanziato in yuan. Questo sta generando un mercato di questa valuta che quasi ne raddoppia i volumi domestici;

– Dallo scorso anno lo yuan è rientrato nei diritti di prelievo del Fondo Monetario Internazionale;

– La Cina ha tutti gli interessi a mantenere ragionevolmente stabile il rapporto di cambio con il dollaro;

– La possibilità concreta di prezzare i prodotti petroliferi in yuan spezza il monopolio del dollaro in questo settore strategico;

– Nessuno si illuda che lo yuan possa rimpiazzare il dollaro a breve termine: per molti anni si dovrà però prendere atto dell’esistenza della possibilità di acquistare petrolio dia in dollari sia in yuan;

– La convertibilità in oro dei contratti dovrebbe sia ridurne la volatilità sia ostacolare la speculazione finanziaria su questi prodotti. Non solo: fornisce una solida garanzia e, simultaneamente, fonde i due mercati. Inoltre, il mercato energetico è talmente ampio che legarlo all’oro equivale ad un primo passo verso un Gold Standard;

– Nessuno si aspetti una riedizione di Bretton Woods. Però il passo è oltremodo significativo. Stiamo assistendo all’inizio della ricongiunzione della finanza all’economia: anche per questo processo sarà necessario molto tempo, ma la strada è questa;

– Quanto accade però non è un qualcosa di avulso dal resto del contesto, anzi, si muovo tutto in modo coordinato.

– Questi contratti in yuan convertibili in oro sono solo il primo esempio: nella pentola cinese ne stanno soffriggendo innumerevoli altri.

Ricordiamocelo bene: sta cambiando un’epoca.

Cina. Inversione di rotta. Inizia la riduzione del debito.

Trump. Il debito sovrano totale da gennaio è sceso di 102.365 miliardi.

Nota.

212.4 milioni di tonnellate di petrolio corrispondono grosso modo a 1,335 milioni di barili. Ossia ad un prezzo all’ingrosso di  circa 67 miliardi di dollari americani, trasporto e raffinamento escluso.


Crude Oil. 2017-09-03. China Readies Yuan-Priced Crude Oil Benchmark Backed By Gold

The world’s top oil importer, China, is preparing to launch a crude oil futures contract denominated in Chinese yuan and convertible into gold, potentially creating the most important Asian oil benchmark and allowing oil exporters to bypass U.S.-dollar denominated benchmarks by trading in yuan, Nikkei Asian Review reports.

The crude oil futures will be the first commodity contract in China open to foreign investment funds, trading houses, and oil firms. The circumvention of U.S. dollar trade could allow oil exporters such as Russia and Iran, for example, to bypass U.S. sanctions by trading in yuan, according to Nikkei Asian Review. To make the yuan-denominated contract more attractive, China plans the yuan to be fully convertible in gold on the Shanghai and Hong Kong exchanges.

Last month, the Shanghai Futures Exchange and its subsidiary Shanghai International Energy Exchange, INE, successfully completed four tests in production environment for the crude oil futures, and the exchange continues with preparatory works for the listing of crude oil futures, aiming for the launch by the end of this year. ?

“The rules of the global oil game may begin to change enormously,” Luke Gromen, founder of U.S.-based macroeconomic research company FFTT, told Nikkei Asia Review.

The yuan-denominated futures contract has been in the works for years, and after several delays, it looks like it may be launched this year. Some potential foreign traders have been worried that the contract would be priced in yuan.

But according to analysts who spoke to Nikkei Asian Review, backing the yuan-priced futures with gold would be appealing to oil exporters, especially to those that would rather avoid U.S. dollars in trade.  

“It is a mechanism which is likely to appeal to oil producers that prefer to avoid using dollars, and are not ready to accept that being paid in yuan for oil sales to China is a good idea either,” Alasdair Macleod, head of research at Goldmoney, told Nikkei.

Nikkey Asian Review. 2017-09-03. China sees new world order with oil benchmark backed by gold

Yuan-denominated contract will let exporters circumvent US dollar.

*

DENPASAR, Indonesia — China is expected shortly to launch a crude oil futures contract priced in yuan and convertible into gold in what analysts say could be a game-changer for the industry.

The contract could become the most important Asia-based crude oil benchmark, given that China is the world’s biggest oil importer. Crude oil is usually priced in relation to Brent or West Texas Intermediate futures, both denominated in U.S. dollars.

China’s move will allow exporters such as Russia and Iran to circumvent U.S. sanctions by trading in yuan. To further entice trade, China says the yuan will be fully convertible into gold on exchanges in Shanghai and Hong Kong.

“The rules of the global oil game may begin to change enormously,” said Luke Gromen, founder of U.S.-based macroeconomic research company FFTT.

The Shanghai International Energy Exchange has started to train potential users and is carrying out systems tests following substantial preparations in June and July. This will be China’s first commodities futures contract open to foreign companies such as investment funds, trading houses and petroleum companies.

Most of China’s crude imports, which averaged around 7.6 million barrels a day in 2016, are bought on long-term contracts between China’s major oil companies and foreign national oil companies. Deals also take place between Chinese majors and independent Chinese refiners, and between foreign oil majors and global trading companies.

Alan Bannister, Asia director of S&P Global Platts, an energy information provider, said that the active involvement of Chinese independent refiners over the last few years “has created a more diverse marketplace of participants domestically in China, creating an environment in which a crude futures contract is more likely to succeed.”

China has long wanted to reduce the dominance of the U.S. dollar in the commodities markets. Yuan-denominated gold futures have been traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange since April 2016, and the exchange is planning to launch the product in Budapest later this year.

Yuan-denominated gold contracts were also launched in Hong Kong in July — after two unsuccessful earlier attempts — as China seeks to internationalize its currency. The contracts have been moderately successful.

The existence of yuan-backed oil and gold futures means that users will have the option of being paid in physical gold, said Alasdair Macleod, head of research at Goldmoney, a gold-based financial services company based in Toronto. “It is a mechanism which is likely to appeal to oil producers that prefer to avoid using dollars, and are not ready to accept that being paid in yuan for oil sales to China is a good idea either,” Macleod said.

Yuan-denominated gold contracts have significant implications, especially for countries like Russia and Iran, Qatar and Venezuela, said Louis-Vincent Gave, chief executive of Gavekal Research, a Hong Kong-based financial research company.

These countries would be less vulnerable to Washington’s use of the dollar as a “soft weapon,” if they should fall foul of U.S. foreign policy, he said. “By creating a gold contract settled in renminbi [an alternative name for the yuan], Russia may now sell oil to China for renminbi, then take whatever excess currency it earns to buy gold in Hong Kong. As a result, Russia does not have to buy Chinese assets or switch the proceeds into dollars,” said Gave.

Grant Williams, an adviser to Vulpes Investment Management, a Singapore-based hedge fund sponsor, said he expects most oil producers to be happy to exchange their oil reserves for gold. “It’s a transfer of holding their assets in black liquid to yellow metal. It’s a strategic move swapping oil for gold, rather than for U.S. Treasuries, which can be printed out of thin air,” he said.

Market share

China has been indicating to producers that those happy to sell to them in yuan will benefit from more business. Producers that will not sell to China in yuan will lose market share.

Saudi Arabia, a U.S. ally, is a case in point. China proposed pricing oil in yuan to Saudi Arabia in late July, according to Chinese media. It is unclear if Saudi Arabia will yield to its biggest customer, but Beijing has been reducing Saudi Arabia’s share of its total imports, which fell from 25% in 2008 to 15% in 2016.

Chinese oil imports rose 13.8% year-on-year during the first half of 2017, but supplies from Saudi Arabia inched up just 1% year-on-year. Over the same timeframe, Russian oil shipments jumped 11%, making Russia China’s top supplier. Angola, which made the yuan its second legal currency in 2015, leapfrogged Saudi Arabia into second spot with an increase of 22% in oil exports to China in the same period.

If Saudi Arabia accepts yuan settlement for oil, Gave said, “this would go down like a lead balloon in Washington, where the U.S. Treasury would see this as a threat to the dollar’s hegemony… and it is unlikely the U.S. would continue to approve modern weapon sales to Saudi and the embedded protection of the House of Saud [the kingdom’s ruling family] that comes with them.”

The alternative for Saudi Arabia is equally unappetizing. “Getting boxed out of the Chinese market will increasingly mean having to dump excess oil inventories on the global stage, thereby ensuring a sustained low price for oil,” said Gave.

But the kingdom is finding other ways to get in with China. On Aug. 24, Saudi Vice Minister of Economy and Planning Mohammed al-Tuwaijri, told a conference in Jeddah that the government was looking at the possibility of issuing a yuan-denominated bond. Saudi Arabia and China have also agreed to establish a $20 billion joint investment fund.

Furthermore, the two countries could cement their relationship if China were to take a cornerstone investment in the planned initial public offering of a 5% state in Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia’s national oil company. The IPO is expected to be the largest ever, although details on the listing venue and valuation are yet scant.

If China were to buy into Saudi Aramco the pricing of Saudi oil could shift from U.S. dollars to yuan, said Macleod. Crucially, “if China can tie in Aramco, with Russia, Iran et al, she will have a degree of influence over nearly 40% of global production, and will be able to progress her desire to exclude dollars for yuan,” he said.

“What is interesting is that China’s leadership originally planned to clean up the markets next year, but brought it forward to this year. One interpretation of that change is that they have brought forward the day when they pay for oil in yuan,” said Simon Hunt, a strategic adviser to international investors on the Chinese economy and geopolitics.

China is also making efforts to set other commodity benchmarks, such as gas and copper, as Beijing seeks to transform the yuan into the natural trading currency for Asia and emerging markets.

Yuan oil futures are expected to attract interest from investors and funds, while state-backed oil majors, such as PetroChina and China Petroleum & Chemical (Sinopec) will provide liquidity to ensure trade. Locally registered entities of JPMorgan, a U.S. bank, and UBS, a Swiss bank, are among the first to have gained approval to trade the contract. But it is understood that the market will be also open to retail investors.

Annunci
Pubblicato in: Cina, Geopolitica Mondiale, Politica Mondiale

Cina. Xiamen. Brics Plus alla conquista del mondo.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-08-30.

Pechino-Cina

Abbiamo già riferito del Simposio di Quanzhou e del programma Belt and Road.

Cina. Quanzhou. I Brics decidono cosa farsene dell’Occidente.

Russia, Cina e Stati Uniti. Venezuela. I venezuelani sono comparse.

Belt and Road Forum. L’alternativa a Davos ed al G20.

Obor. Progetto cinese su di un terzo del pil mondiale, per ora.

Brics. Il Summit di settembre a Xiamen. Ripudio dell’Occidente.

Cina. Banche Cinesi e Belt and Road. Yuan come valuta internazionale.

Filippine. La situazione analizzata dal punto di vista cinese. Xinhua.

*

Cina. Inversione di rotta. Inizia la riduzione del debito.

*

I Brics crescono ogni giorno che passa.

Da un punto di vista meramente economico, se si considera il pil per potere di acquisto, il mondo genera 108,036,500 milioni Usd, la Cina 17,617,300 (16.31%) e gli Stati Uniti 17,418,00 (16.12%). L’Eurozona rende conto di 11,249,482 (10.41%) ed il Gruppo dei G7 di 31.825,293 (29.46%). Però i Brics conteggiano un pil ppa di 32,379,625 Usd, ossia il 29.97% del pil ppa mondiale. I Brics valgono come i paesi del G7.

Di conseguenza, la voce dell’Occidente vale nel mondo al massimo per il 29.46%, ma quella degli Stati Uniti vale solo il 16.12% e quella dell’Eurozona uno scarno 10.41%.

Il pil ppa rende bene l’idea, ma non è l’unico modo di conteggiare. Secondo altre metodiche i Brics varrebbero il 25% dell’economia mondiale e renderebbero conto del 50% della crescita dei sistemi economici. Un risultato molto simile al 29.97%.

Il pil ppa rende conto del reale potere di acquisto.

* * * * * * *

Brics. Il Summit di settembre a Xiamen. Ripudio dell’Occidente.

Cina. Banche Cinesi e Belt and Road. Yuan come valuta internazionale.

Filippine. La situazione analizzata dal punto di vista cinese. Xinhua.

 *

La Cina sta per lanciare il progetto Brics Plus.

The Valdai Discussion Club. 2017-07-19. BRICS-Plus: Alternative Globalization in the Making?

«Given that the BRICS is a unique grouping that is present in all key regions and continents of the developing world, it could serve as a platform for expanding South-South cooperation and economic integration across a wide range of areas. In this regard, rather that seeking to expand core membership, the BRICS+ construct is first and foremost about a different approach to economic integration and a different technology of how alliances are structured globally.»

The Valdai Discussion Club. 2017-07-19. BRICS Plus: New Technology, New Vision for Economic Integration

*

The Times of India. 2017-05-09. China wants ‘BRICS plus’ to include ‘friendly’ countries

The Quint. 2017-08-23. BRICS-Plus? Or a BRICS-Minus Modi Summit in Xiamen?

First Post. 2017-06-20. China says proposed ‘BRICS Plus’ will enhance cooperation with other countries, will not become military alliance

China Daily. 2017-04-17. ‘BRICS Plus’ can become new integration model for world economy

China Org. 2017-03-26. The BRICS-Plus paradigm

* * * * * *

«China will host the ninth BRICS annual summit in the southeastern coastal city of Xiamen, Fujian Province, from September 3 to 5»

*

«the growing impact of the association of emerging countries on the world»

*

«The actions of the BRICS members have a global impact rather than just being restricted to the five member countries»

*

«Foreign Minister Wang Yi said China would explore the expansion modalities for “BRICS Plus” and build a wider partnership by holding dialogues with other major developing countries»

*

«Currently, the BRICS group has five member countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – and potential new members such as Mexico, Pakistan and Sri Lanka»

*

«This governance approach could provide a reference point for other countries with some adaptations to meet varying national conditions …. various options for governance suited to their own situation»

*

«to discuss good practices of domestic governance as well as new approaches to global governance»

* * * * * * *

Cerchiamo di ragionare, nei limiti del possibile.

– Quanto a potere di spesa, al momento i Brics valgono come i paesi del G7;

– Già ora i Brics Plus sarebbero il blocco economico più grande del mondo;

– Prendendo atto del tasso di crescita, tra dieci anni, che passano presto, saranno il blocco economico capace di imporre le proprie regole al mondo, relegando l’Occidente a ruolo subalterno;

– Il “governance approach” dei Brics è esattamente l’opposto di quello occidentale o, più esattamente, di quello liberal e socialista ideologico, che esce storicamente battuto, in declino;

– I Brics hanno un obiettivo dichiarato, ossia quello di proporre, ed imporre de facto, il proprio “new approaches to global governance“.

* * * * * * *

Il modello di governo offerto dai cinesi tende a rispettare e valorizzare le singole identità statali, e questa è la carta vincente. Propone, non impone. Esattamente l’opposto della visione liberal. L’opposto di quanto nell’Unione Europea stanno cercando di fare Frau Merkel e Mr Macron. È immune da pruriti ideologici ed avversa la visione etica e morale dei liberal.

Distruggendo il proprio retaggio religioso, storico, culturale e sociale l’Occidente che abbatte le statue dei suoi grandi, che è ossessionato da ogni possibile perversione sessuale assunta a traguardo di civiltà, non fa altro che spianare la strada all’innalzamento dei Brics e della Cina.

Se non fosse fantapolitica, si dovrebbe concludere che i liberal democratici ed i socialisti ideologici europei siano al soldo della Russia e della Cina.

Nota.

L’articolo citato di China Org usa il termine “socialismo” secondo l’accezione cinese del termine, non secondo quella occidentale: si evitino le confusioni.


China Org. 2017-08-23. Huang Youyi: BRICS influence beyond five countries

“With improved cooperation, improved economy and shared solutions for fighting world challenges, BRICS will further expand its influence in the next decade,” predicted a Chinese expert on Thursday during a seminar in southeastern China.

Huang Youyi, a member of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and executive vice president of the Translators Association of China, foresaw the growing impact of the association of emerging countries on the world stage during an interview with China.org.cn on the sidelines of the BRICS Seminar on Governance that opened Aug. 17 in Quanzhou, Fujian Province.

“The actions of the BRICS members have a global impact rather than just being restricted to the five member countries,” said Huang, pointing out that more countries were showing interest in the mechanism and would like to learn from each country’s successful development models.

As many as 160 people from government agencies, business circle and the academia in the BRICS nations and over 10 countries outside the bloc joined the seminar to discuss good practices of domestic governance as well as new approaches to global governance, leading to openness, inclusiveness, mutual benefits and win-win output.

Earlier this year, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said China would explore the expansion modalities for “BRICS Plus” and build a wider partnership by holding dialogues with other major developing countries and organizations, so as to turn BRICS into the world’s most influential platform for South-South cooperation.

Currently, the BRICS group has five member countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – and potential new members such as Mexico, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The seminar in Quanzhou, in Huang’s words, “fully reflects the BRICS spirit as well as China’s position of common consultation and win-win resolution”, with people from different parts of the world, including Africa, Asia and Latin America, coming together to exchange ideas and explore various options for governance suited to their own situation.

Explaining China’s approach to domestic governance, Huang said that, after many trials and tribulations and more than 100 years of experience, only in the last decades had the nation managed to find a path suitable to its own conditions, namely, the road of socialism with Chinese characteristics, able to carry out reforms and meet various important goals.

This governance approach could provide a reference point for other countries with some adaptations to meet varying national conditions, he added.

Besides the domestic approach, China’s global governance style has met with strong support, with its ideas like building a community of shared future for mankind, inclusive development and common consultation gaining popularity worldwide.

This, Huang argued, was proved by the sheer number of international participants in and outside the BRICS mechanism attending the Quanzhou seminar.

“The idea of ‘BRICS Plus’ does sound attractive,” he added.

Before the organization, as expected, includes more members, he believed there would be all kinds of forums as well as annual meetings held under the BRICS mechanism involving the participation of more people outside of the five countries.

China will host the ninth BRICS annual summit in the southeastern coastal city of Xiamen, Fujian Province, from September 3 to 5, as the country takes the rotating chair of the influential bloc.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Commercio, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Geopolitica Mondiale, Russia, Sistemi Economici

Brics. Il Summit di settembre a Xiamen. Ripudio dell’Occidente.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-08-25.

Soffitti__005

Abbiamo già riferito del Simposio di Quanzhou, preparatorio al Summit dei Brics da tenersi a Xiamen il 3  5 settembre prossimo.

Cina. Quanzhou. I Brics decidono cosa farsene dell’Occidente.

«Delegates to a BRICS seminar, organised by the Communist Party of China (CPC) in the southeast city of Quanzhou analysed and debated the Chinese model of rapid development as the template for the rapid growth, especially of the global South»

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«It highlights the theme: “BRICS: stronger partnership for a brighter future.”»

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«BRICS members account for about 23 per cent of the world economy, and contributed to more than half of global growth in 2016»

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«Peking University professor and former World Bank chief economist Justin Lin Yifu pointed out at the seminar that among nearly 200 developing economies since the end of the Second World War, only two have transitioned from low-income to high-income economies, with China possibly emerging as the third by 2025»

*

«He attributed the failure to avoid either the middle-income or low income trap, to pursuit of western mainstream economic theories — structuralism, and neoliberalism. He stressed that a right balance between the role of the market and the state was required to achieve breakthroughs, Xinhua reported»

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«Mr. Lin highlighted that the “secret of China’s success is its use of both ‘invisible hand’ and ‘visible hand,'”. He added that technological innovation and industrial upgrading can proceed smoothly, only when the market and the state played their complementary roles»

*

«The weak hatchling will never take off if it depends on government aid, financial grants, and welfare allowances»

* * * * * * * *

Molte le novità. Se riporteremo solo alcune.

In primo luogo, si constata come nel 1990 il pil nominale cine ammontasse a 398.623 miliardi Usd, mentre nel 2016 tale valore era salito a 11,218.281: è aumentato di ventotto volte. Per comparazione il pil nominale in tale lasso di tempo è cresciuto di 6.9 volte in India, 3.1 volte negli Stati Uniti e di 2.2 volte in Germania.

In secondo luogo, si constata come in Cina l’accesso al potere politico avvenga tramite una selezione strettamente meritocratica all’interno del Pcc, vera e propria fucina di idee politiche, economiche e sociali. La Cina non ha bisogno alcuno né del suffragio universale né del concetto occidentale di “democrazia“. I politici cinesi hanno un tasso culturale che surclassa quello dei loro omologhi occidentali, e che consente di concepire e perseguire programmi strategici. I politici cinesi non necessitano di essere simpatici alla maggioranza, né ne sono schiavi. Una sorta di concezione platonica della politica.

In terzo luogo, la Cina ha gelosamente custodito il suo retaggio storico, culturale e sociale che ha retto per oltre quaranta secoli. Non ha permesso alle ong occidentali di infiltrarsi nel suo tessuto sociale. Non solo. La legge sul matrimonio della Repubblica popolare cinese definisce il matrimonio come unione tra un uomo e una donna, richiede ai genitori che adottano bambini dalla Cina di essere uniti in matrimoni eterosessuali. Se fino al 1997 l’omosessualità era considerata reato penale, mentre la sua militanza tuttora lo è, le disposizioni penali sul teppismo comprendono l’omosessualità.

In quarto luogo, la Cina rigetta, e quindi non segue le “mainstream economic theories“. In particolare il debito sovrano ammonta al 42.61% del pil nominale in Cina, 15.94% in Russia, 78.32% in Brasile, 69.54% in India, e 50.47% in Sud Africa.

In quinto luogo, constata come “technological innovation and industrial upgrading” abbiano un senso solo quando il mercato le richieda, per cui la Cina le introduce esclusivamente al bisogno.

In sesto luogo, vi è un fermo rigetto dei “government aid, financial grants, and welfare allowances“. E questo è una grossolana differenza con i paesi occidentali che pone i cinesi ed i Brics in antitesi con la Weltanscahuung liberal democratica.

* * * * * * *

Concludendo.

È significativo il titolo con cui il The Hindu tratta del prossimo Summit di Xiamen.

Ahead of Xiamen summit, BRICS discuss new rules of global governance

I Brics si apprestano a dettare al mondo, Occidente compreso, le nuove regole del governo globale, e queste saranno l’opposto di quelle propugnate dall’Occidente.

Per ulteriori approfondimenti 林毅夫.


The Hindu. 2017-08-18. Ahead of Xiamen summit, BRICS discuss new rules of global governance

The BRICS summit is being held in China’s coastal city of Xiamen from September 3-5. It highlights the theme: “BRICS: stronger partnership for a brighter future.”

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As the countdown for the September summit of the Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa (BRICS) grouping begins, scholars, academics and government officials have been brainstorming ways in which the emerging economies can set the global agenda, based on new rules of governance.

Delegates to a BRICS seminar, organised by the Communist Party of China (CPC) in the southeast city of Quanzhou analysed and debated the Chinese model of rapid development as the template for the rapid growth, especially of the global South.

The BRICS summit is being held in China’s coastal city of Xiamen from September 3-5. It highlights the theme: “BRICS: stronger partnership for a brighter future.”

BRICS members account for about 23 per cent of the world economy, and contributed to more than half of global growth in 2016.

Peking University professor and former World Bank chief economist Justin Lin Yifu pointed out at the seminar that among nearly 200 developing economies since the end of the Second World War, only two have transitioned from low-income to high-income economies, with China possibly emerging as the third by 2025.

He attributed the failure to avoid either the middle-income or low income trap, to pursuit of western mainstream economic theories — structuralism, and neoliberalism. He stressed that a right balance between the role of the market and the state was required to achieve breakthroughs, Xinhua reported.

Mr. Lin highlighted that the “secret of China’s success is its use of both ‘invisible hand’ and ‘visible hand,'”. He added that technological innovation and industrial upgrading can proceed smoothly, only when the market and the state played their complementary roles.

Robert Kuhn, a China expert from the United States, focused on the pursuit of “Four Comprehensives” by Chinese leaders as an overarching framework to achieve rapid development goals. The “Four Comprehensives” cover efforts to pursue a moderately prosperous society, reform, rule of law and Party discipline, he observed.

While acknowledging China’s success, most participants also underscored that there is no one-size-fits-all development model that can be fully replicated to achieve growth. Essop Goolam Pahad, the editor of South Africa’s Thinker Magazine, pointed out that a change of mindset was essential as communities and their leader must believe that development is possible, whatever the odds. “The weak hatchling will never take off if it depends on government aid, financial grants, and welfare allowances,” he observed.

The brainstorming in Quanzhou has been preceded by a conference, earlier this month of the BRICS trade minister in Shanghai, which focused on the continued relevance of globalisation. In the wake of protectionist sentiments in the U.S. and Europe, it underscored the need for a united stand of the emerging economies against protectionism, and backing for a multilateral trade system.

In late July, a BRICS security meeting was held in Beijing, with discussions on global governance, anti-terrorism, the internet, energy, national security and development. A month earlier, finance ministers and central bank governors agreed to strengthen cooperation in several fiscal and financial areas, including the BRICS New Development Bank and regulatory collaboration.

Pubblicato in: Geopolitica Mondiale, Putin, Russia

Russia, Anatoly Antonov nuovo ambasciatore negli Usa.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-08-23.

201708-21__Anatoly Antonov

Anatoly Antonov.

«Antonov is considered a hardliner against the West,

earning him a reputation as a “bull terrier.”»

*

«Anatoly Ivanovich Antonov (Russian: Анато́лий Ива́нович Анто́нов; IPA: [ɐnɐˈtolʲɪj ɪˈvanəvʲɪt͡ɕ ɐnˈtonəf]) is a Russian politician, military officer and diplomat who is the Russian Ambassador to the United States, formally replacing Sergey Kislyak on 21 August 2017 by presidential decree. With a reputation as a hardliner and tough negotiator, Antonov is scheduled to take up his post in Washington, D.C. on 1 September 2017.

Antonov was formerly the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs and Deputy Minister of Defence.

Since 2015, Antonov has been under European Union sanctions in response to Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine.

Antonov was born on 15 May 1955 in Omsk, USSR. He graduated from Moscow State Institute of International Relations in 1983.

In 1978, Antonov graduated from the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO), and in 1983 received a master’s degree. In 2012, he earned his doctorate of political science from the Institute of World Economy and International Relations in Moscow. His doctoral dissertation was entitled Controlling nuclear weapons as a factor in ensuring national and international security. He is fluent in English and Burmese

Antonov began his diplomatic career after earning his undergraduate degree in 1978. He spent the next 30 years at the Soviet Ministry of Foreign Affairs and its successor, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, where his area of speciality was control of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons. In 2004, he was appointed Director of the Department for Security and Disarmament.

On 2 February 2011, he was promoted by a Presidential Decree to become Deputy Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation.

As Deputy Minister of Defense, he was personally sanctioned by the European Union following Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine. He had accused NATO in December 2014 of turning Ukraine into a “frontline of confrontation” with Russia.

On 28 December 2016, he was appointed Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs.

In March 2017, he was named as one of the candidates for the post of Permanent Representative of Russia to the United Nations, after the death of Vitaly Churkin. However, in the end, it was decided to appoint Vasily Nebenzya to this post.

Antonov is considered a hardliner against the West, earning him a reputation as a “bull terrier.”

Antonov was still chosen to take over the post from Sergey Kislyak, who had been the ambassador since 2008»

[Fonte]


Kremlin. The President of Russia. 2017-08-21. Anatoly Antonov appointed Russian Ambassador to the USA

Vladimir Putin issued an Executive Order appointing Anatoly Antonov Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation to the United States of America and, concurrently, Permanent Observer of the Russian Federation at the Organisation of American States in Washington, USA.


The Guardian. 2017-08-21. Putin names hardliner Anatoly Antonov as Russia’s US ambassador

Vladimir Putin has appointed a new Russian ambassador to the US at a time when relations between the two countries are at a low, driven by accusations of Russian interference in the 2016 US presidential elections.

Anatoly Antonov will take over from Sergey Kislyak, the country’s longstanding top diplomat in Washington who became embroiled in the scandal surrounding possible collusion between Moscow and the Trump campaign.

Antonov, 62, is seen as a hardliner and no-nonsense negotiator. He has been deputy foreign minister since December. Before that, he was deputy defence minister and had a long career in diplomacy, specialising in arms control. Russian media reported that his appointment had been planned even before Trump’s surprise election victory and the subsequent disintegration of relations between the two countries.

Kislyak had a reputation as a low-profile diplomat who rarely gave interviews, but has burst into the spotlight due to a series of meetings with members of the Trump team during the election campaign, including with Jeff Sessions, who was later appointed attorney general and initially denied meeting the Russian.

Kislyak also told his superiors in Moscow that Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, had proposed setting up a secret back-channel with the Russians, according to the Washington Post, citing US officials briefed on intelligence reports.

Antonov’s job will be to avoid further scandal, but Moscow recognises there are unlikely to be many opportunities for increased cooperation given the current climate of bilateral relations.

The outgoing Obama administration expelled 35 Russian diplomats in retaliation for Russian meddling in the electoral process. Putin did not initially respond, apparently having received signals that the incoming Trump team would be more favourable towards Russia.

Trump has continued to speak of the need for better relations with Russia and has repeatedly praised Putin, but the toxicity of Russia in Washington has led instead to a further round of sanctions against Moscow, which sailed through Congress with bipartisan support and was begrudgingly signed into law by Trump.

Deciding that the promised thaw was not forthcoming, Russia finally responded to the diplomatic expulsions and the sanctions last month, giving the US until 1 September to reduce its diplomatic presence in the country to 455 people, including diplomats and locally employed staff, forcing the Americans to lay off hundreds of local workers. The embassy has not released official figures but is believed to employ about 1,100 people in Moscow and three other consulates across the country.

A new US ambassador, John Huntsman, will also arrive in Moscow in the coming weeks, where he will have to come to terms with running a much diminished diplomatic mission.

On Monday, the US embassy in Moscow announced it was suspending issuing non-immigration visas to Russians until 1 September. After that, the Moscow embassy will resume issuing tourist and other short-term visas, but visas at the three US consulates in St Petersburg, Ekaterinburg and Vladivostok will remain suspended indefinitely.

“Currently scheduled appointments will be cancelled and applicants will be provided instructions on how to reschedule,” said a statement on the embassy’s website.

Pubblicato in: Geopolitica Mondiale, Medio Oriente, Russia

Libia. Russia. È un problema politico mondiale, non di Mr Macron.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-08-16.

Putin 1002

Il problema della Libia è politico: cercare di comprenderlo argomentando solo in termini economici sarebbe fuorviante.

Così come sarebbe fuorviante cercare di tenersi aggiornati leggendo solo i media occidentali liberal democratici. Alla fine poi ci si scontra con la realtà.

«Sarraj, who was appointed last year to lead the new government of national accord, has been unable to assert his authority outside Tripoli. Haftar’s rival administration is based in Libya’s remote east.»

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«The two rivals agreed a cease-fire at talks in France last month and committed to holding elections, a plan which was endorsed by the UN Security Council.»

*

«Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Monday backed the efforts of Libya’s military commander Khalifa Haftar and his rival UN-backed Prime Minister Fayez Al-Sarraj to reach a peace agreement in the conflict-ridden country.»

*

«We actively support the emerging trend to step up the process of political resolution, toward a full restoration of statehood in your country» [Mr Lavrov]

*

«We know about your efforts, together with Sarraj, aimed at achieving a generally accepted agreement on optimal ways to execute the Skhirat political agreement that would be acceptable for everyone» [Mr Lavrov]

*

«Lavrov emphasised the UN’s role in the peace process, adding that the new UN special envoy to Libya, Ghassan Salame, who started work this month, was also due in Moscow.»

* * * * * * *

L’attuale situazioni in Libia è stata determinata da un accordo internazionale tra molte potenze politiche, economiche e militari: alcune grandi, altre piccole, altre infine utili solo come comparse, a scopo di propaganda.

Dai tempi della “primavera araba” ad oggi è passato molto tempo ed il quadro geopolitico e militare è mutato in modo sostanziale.

Se lodiamo l’iniziativa di pace patrocinata da Mr Marcon, che pure qualche frutto lo ha portato, si dovrebbe constatare come la Francia singola non abbia la forza di proporre, ed anche imporre, una pace reale in tale landa agendo da sola. Stesso ragionamento per la Germania e per l’Unione Europea.

Se ci si rende conto che Mr Macron abbia agito anche per scopi di visibilità e di politica interna, cercando di ritagliarsi un ruolo anche nell’ambito della Unione Europea, si constata anche il suo sostanziale insuccesso.

Cercare di agire in modo solitario è affare oramai fuori dal tempo, specie poi nel problema libico. Per Mr Macron è stata la sconfitta che riconosce la sua reale impotenza.

La soluzione del problema libico passa attraverso le Nazioni Unite, e solo ed esclusivamente con un accordo delle tre superpotenze mondiali: America, Russia e Cina. Sentiti sicuramente pareri ed ascoltati gli interessi anche degli attori mediorientali, ma non necessariamente le istanze dell’Unione Europea o di singoli stati dell’Unione.

In ogni caso, senza accordo anche e soprattutto con la Russia non si può ottenere nulla.

E Mr Lavrov ha messo il dito sul punto cardine:

«political agreement that would be acceptable for everyone»

Questa è l’essenza dell’agire diplomatico: soddisfare degnamente tutte le parti in causa.


Aska. 2017-08-14. Libia, Haftar: Mosca abbia un ruolo nel processo di riconciliazione

Generale libico ha incontrato oggi a Mosca ministro Esteri Lavrov.

*

Mosca, 14 ago. (askanews) – Il generale Khalifa Haftar si è detto “sicuro che la Russia rimarrà nostro stretto alleato e non si rifiuterà di aiutarci”, auspicando anche, durante il colloquio avuto oggi con il ministro degli Esteri russo Sergei Lavrov, un ruolo di Mosca nel processo di riconciliazione avviato con il premier del governo di accordo nazionale, Fayez al Sarraj: “Noi saremmo felici se la Russia potesse aiutarci in questa cosa – ha detto Haftar, citato dall’agenzia di stampa Interfax – non abbiamo discusso di un ruolo specifico della Russia, ma noi siamo favorevoli a un ruolo della Russia in questo processo, qualunque sia”.

A fine luglio, Haftar e Sarraj si sono incontrati in Francia e hanno raggiunto un accordo su una dichiarazione in 10 punti che prevede un cessate il fuoco ed elezioni. Oggi Lavrov ha detto che tutti gli sforzi di mediazione per risolvere la crisi in Libia devono passare per le Nazioni Unite.


Sputnik. 2017-08-14. Lavrov Tells Haftar Russia Supports Full-Scale Restoration of Libyan Statehood

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Moscow supports the full-scale restoration of the statehood of Libya.

*

MOSCOW (Sputnik) – Lavrov added that while the situation in Libya remains complicated, actions are being undertaken in order to reach national a political solution.

«”Unfortunately, the situation in Libya remains difficult, the threat of extremism has not been overcome in your homeland. However, we know about the actions which are being undertaken and actively support the tendency of intensification of political resolution processes, the full-scale restoration of the statehood of your country,” Lavrov said at a meeting with Khalifa Haftar, the head of the Libyan Natonal Army.»

Russia supports the intention of Libyan National Army Commander Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar to reach an agreement with Prime Minister of the Libyan Government of National Accord Fayez Sarraj, Lavrov said.

“We are aware of the efforts being made with your participation, with the participation of Sarraj, which are aimed at ensuring generally acceptable agreements on optimal ways of implementing the Skhirat agreement,” Lavrov told Haftar. “We support your set towards reaching such agreements,” he added.

All mediation efforts in Libya should be carried out on the basis of the United Nations, Lavrov said.

«”We believe that it is very important to focus all mediation efforts and ideas on the political front on the basis of the activities of the United Nations.”»

According to Lavrov, Moscow sees such activities “not as aimed at development of solutions, but as a contribution to the most favorable conditions for a dialogue between key figures in Libya, so that they themselves agree on the future of their country.”

«”This is our principled stance,” the minister said.»

Libya has been suffering from a civil war since 2011 when long-time leader Muammar Gaddafi was overthrown. The country’s eastern regions are governed by the elected parliament headquartered in the city of Tobruk. Besides, the Government of National Accord, formed with the support from the United Nations and Europe and headed by Fayez Sarraj, operates in the country’s west, including the Libyan capital of Tripoli.

The eastern authorities act independently from the west, cooperating with the National Army led by Haftar, which fights against Islamist terrorists.

Moscow has been providing support for the regulation of the crisis in Libya and has repeatedly said it was ready to cooperate with all the interested Libyan parties.


Arab News. 2017-08-14. Moscow backs peace efforts by Libya rivals: Lavrov

MOSCOW: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Monday backed the efforts of Libya’s military commander Khalifa Haftar and his rival UN-backed Prime Minister Fayez Al-Sarraj to reach a peace agreement in the conflict-ridden country.

“We actively support the emerging trend to step up the process of political resolution, toward a full restoration of statehood in your country,” Lavrov told Haftar in remarks released by the Foreign Ministry after the two men met in Moscow.
“We know about your efforts, together with Sarraj, aimed at achieving a generally accepted agreement on optimal ways to execute the Skhirat political agreement that would be acceptable for everyone,” Lavrov said.

The UN-backed Skhirat Agreement was reached in 2015 as the basis for a political process in Libya, but it had been rejected by Haftar and other factions.

“We support your intent on achieving some progress,” Lavrov said.

Libya has been in chaos since the 2011 uprising that toppled former ruler Muammar Qaddafi.

Sarraj, who was appointed last year to lead the new government of national accord, has been unable to assert his authority outside Tripoli. Haftar’s rival administration is based in Libya’s remote east.

The two rivals agreed a cease-fire at talks in France last month and committed to holding elections, a plan which was endorsed by the UN Security Council.

On Monday, Lavrov emphasised the UN’s role in the peace process, adding that the new UN special envoy to Libya, Ghassan Salame, who started work this month, was also due in Moscow.

“Unfortunately, the situation in your country continues to be complicated. The threat of extremism has not been overcome, though we know about the actions being taken to eradicate it,” Lavrov said.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Geopolitica Mondiale

Obor. Progetto cinese su di un terzo del pil mondiale, per ora.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-08-11.

2017-0608__The Guiyang–Guangzhou High-Speed Railway__001

Obor è l’acronimo di “One Belt, One Road“.

«OBOR coinvolgerebbe fino a 65 nazioni: più della metà della popolazione mondiale, tre quarti delle riserve energetiche e un terzo del prodotto interno lordo globale, rappresenterebbe il più grande progetto di investimento mai compiuto prima, superando, al netto dell’inflazione odierna, di almeno 12 volte l’European Recovery Program, il celebre Piano Marshall» [Fonte]

*

A sostegno finanziario dell’Obor, e non solo, è stata costituita la Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank

«Major economies that are not members include Japan and the United States.» [Fonte]

La Cina detiene azioni della Aiib per 27.780 mld Usd, l’India 8.367 mld, e la Russia 6.536 mld: assieme hanno la maggioranza.

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A ben valutare il lavoro fatto in questi otto anni, non si resta per nulla stupiti delle previsione fornite dalla Obor

«By 2050, the Belt and Road region aims to contribute 80 per cent of global GDP growth, and advance three billion more people into the middle class.»

Detto per inciso, il restante 20% del pil mondiale sarà quello generato da ciò che ora sarebbe il così detto Occidente. Gli Orientali benedicono la sorte che gli Occidentali non riescano a comprendere che si sono condannati alla estinzione per carenza di nascite.

* * *

Alla luce di quanto sopra riportato, può essere meglio valutato il peso dell’ultima notizia relativa a questo argomento:

«A mega railway to be built by China was officially launched on Wednesday in the Malaysian city of Kuantan, a milestone for China-Malaysia ties as China pushed forward the Belt and Road Initiative.»

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«At a cost of 55 billion ringgit (12.83 billion U.S. dollars), the 688-km East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) will help upgrade public transportation infrastructure in the east coast»

*

«The ECRL is the first artery railway built in the east coast, which has been connected to the west coast only “via a network of roads and highways, and small rail lines that were woefully inadequate.”»

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Chinese firm brings safe drinking water to Lao villagers while building China-Laos railway

Changchun-Baicheng-Ulan Hot railway starts operation

Feature: Laos-China railway brings changes to Laos

* * * * * * *

La Cina sta perseguendo a livello mondiale quella che fu in Occidente la rivoluzione ferroviaria dell’ottocento. È impossibile generare produzione industriale e benessere se questa produzione non possa essere trasportata rapidamente ed a basso costo dal luogo di produzione a quello del consumo.

Stati Uniti, Giappone e paesi occidentali sono accuratamente tenuti fuori da questo progetto, ma non tanto per una preclusione o per un ostruzionismo cinese, quanto piuttosto perché se ne sono autoesclusi con le loro stese mani.

Gli occidentali hanno infatti una mentalità statale piuttosto che imperiale. Essi mirano ad assimilare ai propri valori piuttosto che a collaborare nelle diversità. Ma nel momento in cui tali ‘valori’ si concretizzano in un sistema etico molto personalizzato e scollato dalla realtà, essi perdono ogni possibile attrattiva e sono invece oggetto di repulsa. L’Oriente e l’Africa se ne guardano bene dall’accettare come valido il modello occidentale, la sua Weltanschauung.

Cina, e di conseguenza Obor, non pongono come limite alla collaborazione la condivisione di scale valoriali, di ideologie, di così detto ‘buon governo‘. Vivono benissimo senza lgbt e senza ogn, che anzi vi sono sostanzialmente proibite. Trattano con chiunque voglia trattare, anche se fosse espressione di un governo ritenuto out dal mondo occidentale.

Con questa semplicissima visione la Cina sta conquistandosi il mondo.

Nel caso specifico poi, si sta conquistando il predominio su ciò che è ed a maggior ragione sarà lo sviluppo ferroviario del futuro.

«China’s grand plans to become a high-speed rail power in Southeast Asia is on track as a part of its “One Belt One Road” initiative. Although there are some obstacles, its ambition sounds quite feasible. We could say that its dream of becoming a high-speed rail power could begin in Southeast Asia.

Such judgment is not an exaggeration considering the recent movement of the Chinese traffic authorities. Most of all, China Railway Group Limited (CREC), one of China’s largest state-owned companies, is making every effort to win the construction of the high-speed rail project signed between Malaysia and Singapore on Tuesday. Considering the July 21st reports of Xinhua News and other state-owned media outlets, it is almost certain that China will win the project. This is because China has been making great efforts for the last three years, and the country is confident it can beat other 98 competitors from several countries including Japan and Korea. In fact, CREC is likely to win the bid, considering the atmosphere on site.

The recent construction commencement of the 417-kim high-speed railway project which will link China’s Yunnan province and the Lao capital of Vientiane is another example that shows that China’s ambition to become a high-speed rail power in Southeast Asia is not just a dream. The railway is expected to open after five years. Besides, the China-Thailand railway project that hit a bump recently, is likely to be on track again after being aggressively courted by China. This means that China’s high-speed rail network that would stretch more than 3,000 kilometers starting from Yunnan province to Laos, Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore is feasible. If this is the case, China could become a high-speed rail power in Southeast Asia, and even complete the basic blueprint of its One Belt One Road initiative. Ultimately, China’s railway could be connected to Europe.

Obviously, there are some obstacles. The biggest one is the United States and Japan’s efforts to curb China’s ambition to dominate the high-speed railways. Along with Korea, Japan is participating in almost every bidding for projects promoted by Southeast Asian countries in an attempt to drag China down. Concerns over Chinese technology should not be overlooked either. The reality is well represented by recent recall of Chinese-made subway trains in Singapore. Chinese train maker CSR Sifang tried to ship faulty Singapore Mass Rapid Transit (SMRT) trains secretly back to China for repairs, however it was immediately revealed externally. Although China should overcome this weak point, the country is highly likely to become a high-speed rail power in Southeast Asia.» [The World Post]

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Tutto questo è stato fatto in circa otto anni, in corrispondenza dell’Amministrazione Obama.


Xinhua. 2017-08-09. Chinese-built mega railway begins construction in Malaysia

KUANTAN, Malaysia, Aug. 9 (Xinhua) — A mega railway to be built by China was officially launched on Wednesday in the Malaysian city of Kuantan, a milestone for China-Malaysia ties as China pushed forward the Belt and Road Initiative.

At a cost of 55 billion ringgit (12.83 billion U.S. dollars), the 688-km East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) will help upgrade public transportation infrastructure in the east coast, said Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak when inaugurating a ground-breaking ceremony of the project.

The ECRL is the first artery railway built in the east coast, which has been connected to the west coast only “via a network of roads and highways, and small rail lines that were woefully inadequate.”

Describing the project as a game-changer for Malaysia, Najib said it will significantly cut travel time from Gombak in suburban Kuala Lumpur to Kota Baru in the northeastern state of Kelantan from seven to four hours.

The railway will be built by China Communications Construction Company Ltd., a leading transportation infrastructure group that also built a landmark bridge in the northwestern state of Penang.

Chinese State Councillor Wang Yong also attended the ceremony.

When meeting with Najib prior to the ceremony, Wang praised the ECRL as a “flagship project” jointly built by the two countries under the Belt and Road Initiative, which will boost economic transformation and balanced development of different regions in Malaysia.

He expressed his hope that both China and Malaysia could seize the historic opportunity brought by the Belt and Road Initiative to achieve win-win results and joint development.

China is willing to work closely with the Malaysian side and build the rail link into another landmark project so as to benefit the Malaysian people as soon as possible and help realize regional development and prosperity, Wang added.

The ECRL will be an electric railway line crossing Kelantan, Terengganu, Pahang and Selangor states. It will accommodate passenger trains at a maximum speed of 160 km per hour and goods trains at a maximum speed of 80 km per hour. Construction of the rail link is expected to be completed by 2024.

The project will benefit the 4.4 million population along its route, said Liow Tiong Lai, Malaysia’s minister of transport in a statement on Wednesday. He estimated that the ECRL will serve 5.4 million passengers annually by 2030.

The Export-Import Bank of China financed 85 percent of the railway with soft loans, while the Malaysian government provided the remaining 15 percent via issuing bonds, according to Najib.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Geopolitica Militare, Geopolitica Mondiale

L’Asean denuncia la militarizzazione cinese del Mare del Sud della Cina.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-08-10.

2017-08-08__Asean__001 454998

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, right, talks with Australia Foreign Minister Julie Bishop, left, at the start of the 7th East Asia Summit Foreign Ministers’ Meeting and its dialogue partners as part of the 50th ASEAN Ministerial Meetings in Manila, Philippines, on Monday.


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Le esondazioni si prevengono costruendo argini degni di tal nome. Una volta che il fiume è straripato, non resta altro da fare che aspettare che le acque si ritirino, e quindi ricostruire quanto distrutto. Sempre poi che ciò sia possibile.

Per far ciò serve avere una chiara visione dell’attuale, in questo caso di un fiume che potrebbe esondare, ed una altrettanto chiara visione del futuro: si tratta infatti di privarsi oggi di una certa quale quota di risorse disponibili per costruire gli argini che proteggeranno nel futuro.

Bene: questa visione è latitata nell’ultimo decennio in tutto l’Occidente ed in molti paesi del sud – est asiatico. Lamentarsi oggi non ha alcun senso: il latte è stato versato.

* * *

Per capire meglio la situazione, guardiamo con attenzione la fotografia. Il Ministro Wang Yi incontra Mrs Julie Bishop. Ma chi sono veramente, al di là della carica?

«Wang Yi  is a Chinese diplomat and politician. He formerly served as China’s Vice Foreign Minister, Ambassador to Japan, and Director of the Taiwan Affairs Office. As of March 2013, he is the Foreign Minister of the People’s Republic of China. ….

After graduating from high school in September 1969, he was sent to Northeast China. He subsequently served in the Northeast Construction Army Corps in Heilongjiang Province for eight years ….

was enrolled in the department of Asian and African Languages of Beijing International Studies University (BISU). He studied the Japanese language at the institution, graduating in February 1982 with a bachelor’s degree. ….

From August 1997 to February 1998, Wang was a visiting scholar at the Institute of Foreign Relations of Georgetown University in the United States. ….

From September 1999, Wang studied international relations at China Foreign Affairs University and obtained a master’s degree. In February 2001» [Fonte]

Ricapitolando. Mr Wang Yi  ha alle spalle una formazione culturale di tutto rilievo, come attestano i titoli accademici conseguiti. Parla fluentemente giapponese ed inglese per essere vissuto in tali nazioni, più altre lingue asiatiche minori. Ha vissuto lunghi periodi all’estero. Ha un curriculum dedicato alla politica estera di tutto rilievo. In altri termini: è uno che conosce il proprio mestiere.

*

«Julie Isabel Bishop (born 17 July 1956) is an Australian politician, serving as the Minister for Foreign Affairs since 2013, and the Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party since 2007. ….

She was educated at St Peter’s Collegiate Girls’ School and later at the University of Adelaide, where she studied law, graduating in 1978 ….

she attended Harvard Business School for eight weeks to complete an Advanced Management Program for Senior Managers ….

Bishop was appointed Minister for Ageing in 2003. She was later promoted to Minister for Education, Science and Training and Minister Assisting the Prime Minister for Women’s Issues» [Fonte]

Mrs Bishop parla unicamente inglese, non ha mai vissuto nei paesi del sud – est asiatico, ha un curriculum accademico scarno, non si era mai interessata di problemi di politica estera, ignora totalmente quelli militari. È diventata ministro degli esteri per il solo merito di essere nata femmina. Un po’ pochino per superare una selezione meritocratica e per poter parlare alla pari con Mr Wang Yi.

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Il confronto tra Mr Wang Yi  e Mrs Julie Bishop è il miglior modo per comprendere perché la Cina adesso domini in modo totale il Mare Cinese del Sud.

«China claims nearly all of the sea, through which $5 trillion in annual shipping trade passes and which is believed to sit atop vast oil and gas deposits»

Se l’Asean affida a Mrs Bishop le trattative per un problema da cinque trilioni di dollari dimostra in modo lampante la propria incompetenza.

*

Non solo.

«The United States, Australia and Japan on Monday denounced Beijing’s island-building and militarization of the South China Sea, in contrast to the increasingly tepid response from Southeast Asian nations over the festering issue.»

Le Filippine sono il grande assente, eppure hanno una posizione altamente strategica.

«The Philippines had been one of the most vocal critics of China and filed a case before a UN-backed tribunal.

But after the election of President Rodrigo Duterte last year, Manila has played down the verdict in favor of pursuing warmer ties with Beijing, a move that led to offers of billions of dollars in investments or aid from China»

Ma le sentenze dei tribunali trovano valore solo ed esclusivamente se hanno un supporto politico: senza valgono come la carta straccia.

Stati Uniti ed Asean si sono giocati l’amicizia delle Filippine nel tentativo utopico di voler loro imporre le proprie concezioni ideologiche, mentre la Cina ha guardato con spietato realismo la cartina geografica.

L’Occidente liberal e femminista si sta avviando mestamente sul viale del tramonto: si sta suicidando. Senza meritocrazia le società implodono.


Saudi Gazette. 2017-08-08. US, allies denounce Beijing’s militarization of S. China Sea

MANILA — The United States, Australia and Japan on Monday denounced Beijing’s island-building and militarization of the South China Sea, in contrast to the increasingly tepid response from Southeast Asian nations over the festering issue.
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China claims nearly all of the sea, through which $5 trillion in annual shipping trade passes and which is believed to sit atop vast oil and gas deposits.

Its sweeping claims overlap with Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei — all members of the 10-nation Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) bloc — as well as Taiwan.

But in recent years Beijing has managed to weaken regional resistance by courting some ASEAN members.

On Sunday Beijing scored a coup when ASEAN ministers issued a diluted statement on the dispute and agreed to Beijing’s terms on talks during a security forum which the bloc is hosting in Manila.

China insists that a much-delayed code of conduct between it and ASEAN members over the disputed sea must not be legally binding, a demand to which Southeast Asian countries have so far acquiesced.

But in a joint statement after their foreign ministers met on the sidelines of the same gathering, the US, Japan and Australia delivered a noticeably sterner rebuke to Beijing.

Criticizing ongoing “land reclamation, construction of outposts, militarization of disputed features” in the disputed sea, the trio said any code of conduct must be “legally binding, meaningful and effective,” a demand noticeably absent from the ASEAN statement.

The three nations also called on China and the Philippines to respect last year’s international arbitration ruling which dismissed much of Beijing’s claim in the sea.

The Philippines had been one of the most vocal critics of China and filed a case before a UN-backed tribunal.

But after the election of President Rodrigo Duterte last year, Manila has played down the verdict in favor of pursuing warmer ties with Beijing, a move that led to offers of billions of dollars in investments or aid from China.

Critics of China have accused it of assiduously dividing ASEAN, which operates on a consensus basis, with strong-arm

 tactics and checkbook diplomacy, enticing smaller countries in the bloc such as Cambodia and Laos to support it.

Vietnam, which had been pushing for stronger language in Manila, has been largely left to fend for itself since Duterte’s China rapprochement.

The US, Australia and Japan oppose Beijing building giant artificial islands that could be used as military bases, fearing it will eventually establish de facto control over the waters.

China insists the three countries should stay out of what it says are purely bilateral disputes with its neighbors.

On Sunday Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned any interference from “outside parties” could jeopardize negotiations over the code of conduct.

Pubblicato in: Commercio, Geopolitica Mondiale

Rep Ceka e Cina. Attiva la ferrovia Praga – Yiwu.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-08-08.

Gufo_022__

Quando giunse la notizia che Cristoforo Colombo aveva scoperto l’America navigando per conto degli spagnoli, il senato di Genova si radunò in seduta plenaria nella sala del Gran Consiglio.

Constatarono che nulla potevano fare e che sarebbe stata spesa inutile allestire una flotta di altura, vista la collocazione geografica della Repubblica. Prese però una decisione e si somma importanza: la Repubblica avrebbe dovuto favorire lo sviluppo del sistema bancario genovese, peraltro già florido.

Pochi anni dopo, agli inizi del ‘500, si ripeté la scena: Vasco da Gama aveva aperto la via marittima per le Indie ed era tornato con la nave stracarica di spezie comprate a prezzi irrisori. Questo evento segnò la fine del commercio terrestre delle spezie fatto dagli arabi fino al Mediterraneo, e dì li smistato da Genovesi e Veneziani all’Occidente. Il Senato constatò che era terminata una lunga fase commerciale, e si riconfermò nelle decisioni già prese.

Grazie al loro buon senso iniziava quello che fu poi denominato il Siglo de Oro.

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Gli elementi del successo genovese sono molteplici, ma due spiccano: il saper prendere atto di una realtà attuale e dei suoi sviluppi futuri, anche se agli inizi quella realtà era di minima portata, ed in secondo luogo il saper riciclare nell’unica attività che loro si poteva offrire: l’avventura finanziaria per cui i genovesi divennero i banchieri dei regni, in diretta concorrenza con i Fugger di Augusta.

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Questo lungo preambolo non è stato messo a caso: serve per aiutare a capire a fondo quanto è accaduto in questi giorni.

«The freight train X8074 from Prague arrives in Yiwu, east China’s Zhejiang Province, Aug. 4, 2017. The first freight train from Prague, the Czech Republic to Yiwu arrived at Yiwu west freight station at about 11:00 a.m. Friday after a 16-day journey»

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«The train carried 82 containers of crystal products, automobile accessories, beer and some other Czech products, with total value of about five million U.S. dollars»

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«opened up a safe, fast, economic, green railway international logistics channel»

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«As of the end of July 2017, Yiwu West freight station has been set up in the Central and European countries 214 times, a total of 17204 TEU delivery. Currently, from Spain, Spain, London, Czech Republic, Czech Republic, Prague back to Yiwu, China and Europe have achieved weekly»

* * * * * * *

Questa linea ferroviaria è stata progettata per regger fino a 500 convogli al giorno, 40,000 container al dì, circa duecento milioni di dollari. In un prossimo futuro si dipanerà fino alla Polonia a nord, Belgrado ed il Pireo, che è già cinese, a sud. Ma nulla vieta di pensare a linee raddoppiate oppure triplicate, operazioni rese ben più facili dall’avere già una linea attiva in essere.

Inoltre, il Kazakhstan, quel paese interno dell’Asia che confina a nord con la Russia, ad ovest con il Mar Caspio ed ad est con la Cina, si conquista una via di comunicazione eccellente, sia verso est sia verso ovest. Nessuno in Cina, principale finanziatrice dell’opera, si è mai posto problemi sul governo di Mr Nursultan Äbişulı Nazarbaev, il quale non rientra certo nei canoni valoriali di Frau Merkel, che infatti ha fatto il suo possibile per boicottare questa iniziativa, ma non essendo onnipotente, con ben scarsi risultati, tranne quello di rendersi molto poco popolare.

Se si è perfettamente consci che questo sia stato il primo convoglio, si è altrettanto consci che gli sviluppi dovrebbe ripagare pienamente questo cospicuo investimento.

La carta geografica è utile per capire il problema logistico dei paesi centro europei, del Visegrad, mentre il mappamondo lo sarebbe per captare visivamente l’importanza strategica.

La distanza in linea d’aria tra Praga e Pekino è circa 8,500 kilometri, ma lo sviluppo ferroviario è circa 13,000 kilometri. Al moment coperti in sedici giorni, ivi comprese le tappe, ma a regime percorribili in circa una settimana, contro i sessanta – ottanta giorni richiesti dal’invio via mare.

Ma la rotta marittima prevede il passaggio del Kattegat e dello Skagerrak, quindi dello stretto di Gibilterra, del canale di Suez, dello stretto di Aden ed infine di quello della Malacca. Tutti punti facilmente rendibili interdetti. Se è vero che l’accesso al Mediterraneo tramite il porto del Pireo è pur sempre bloccabile a Suez ed a Gibilterra, è anche vero che bypassa la capricciosa Turkia che governa i Dardanelli.

Senza uno sbocco al mare, i Paesi del Visegrad dipendono strettamente dalla loro capacità di mantenere buoni rapporti con i paesi viciniori che consentono, spesso riluttanti, il transito delle merci sui loro territori. Sono spesso contratti capestro: sia in termini di costi diretti, sia in termini di obbligo a servirsi di determinati servizi, per esempio, quelli di trasporto marittimo. Il trasporto diretto su strada ferrata da e verso la Cina abbatte i costi totali, ivi compresi i signoraggi, di quasi dieci volte. Ma non è solo un problema di risparmio economico: questa linea di comunicazione appare sicura. Politicamente e militarmente.

Il quadro strategico sarebbe però incompleto, almeno nelle sue grandi linee, se non si menzionassero gli attriti in corso tra i paesi del Visegrad e l’Unione Europea.

Al crollo dell’Unione Sovietica i paesi del Visegrad entrarono nella Nato. Loro mettevano a disposizione il loro territorio in cambio della ovvia protezione termonucleare e di aiuti economici straordinari, che avrebbero dovuto essere a carico dell’allora Unione Europea, che alla fine consentì loro di entrare. Saggiamente i paesi del Visegrad non aderirono all’euro ed all’Eurozona.

Con l’avvento della cancelleria Merkel e, poi, con la Amministrazione Obama, la Germania iniziò a nutrire forti ambizioni egemoni sull’Europa, cui voleva imporre la propria ideologia valoriale: in poche parole, voleva perseguire un’unione politica de facto sotto il proprio controllo. I paesi del Visegrad si ribellarono: nelle elezioni i partiti pro-Unione Europea furono severamente penalizzati ed i partiti vincenti vollero riappropriarsi del proprio retaggio religioso, storico, culturale e sociale. Gli attriti salirono rapidamente al calor rovente, specie con Polonia ed Ungheria.

Sembrerebbe del tutto ragionevole che attriti di questo tipo proseguano fino a tanto che Frau Merkel, volente o nolente, non cambi comportamento.

Sotto questa ottica, il Visegrad si trova ora in mano una carta di portata strategica: in un prossimo futuro potrebbe dipendere molto poco dall’Unione Europea, sempre poi che questa riesca a sopravvivere abbastanza a lungo, cosa su cui molti iniziano a nutrire dei dubbi seri.

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Quando la São Gabriel, la São Rafael e la Santa Fé attraccarono a Lisbona il 9 settembre 1499 i portoghesi fecero gran festa. Gli equipaggi si arricchirono vendendo le spezie con ricavi di mille ad uno. Tutti si rendevano conto della portata storica dell’evento e non vedevano l’ora di imbarcarsi per il viaggio della ricchezza. Eppure erano tre ‘navi’ da cento tonnellate l’una. Tuttavia i loro sogni si dimostrarono essere di gran lunga inferiori alla realtà futura.


Xinhua. 2017-08-05. First freight train from Czech’s Prague to E China’s Yiwu

The freight train X8074 from Prague arrives in Yiwu, east China’s Zhejiang Province, Aug. 4, 2017. The first freight train from Prague, the Czech Republic to Yiwu arrived at Yiwu west freight station at about 11:00 a.m. Friday after a 16-day journey. The train carried 82 containers of crystal products, automobile accessories, beer and some other Czech products, with total value of about five million U.S. dollars.


Top News. 2017-08-05. The first trip from the Czech Republic, Prague opened in the EU-China arrived in Zhejiang Yiwu

Yiwu August 4 (Reporter Xi Jinyan) at 11:18 on August 4, loaded with 82 pieces of Czech goods standard container X8074 times in Central Europe (Prague – Yiwu) to reach the railway Yiwu West freight station. With the railway Yiwu West freight station to open the EU-China international freight line, in more than two years from a rapid increase to the ninth, but also opened up a safe, fast, economic, green railway international logistics channel, but also signs With the return of Yiwu, China and the EU are becoming more and more normal, accelerating the economic and trade exchanges between Yiwu and Central Europe and interconnection.

It is reported that this is the Shanghai Railway Bureau Jinhua Cargo Center, China Railway Container Company Shanghai Branch and other railway departments and the relevant departments of Yiwu municipal government, Yiwu customs, commodity inspection, Yiwu Tianyuan company, Yiwu railway port and other road cooperation crystallization.

(Prague – Yiwu), the main goods for the crystal products, auto parts, beer and other Czech special products, the total value of about 5 million US dollars, the class run time lasted 16 days, the first batch of goods from the Czech capital Prague, Way Poland, Belarus, Russia, Kazakhstan, the final smooth arrival of Yiwu railway port.

China and the EU (Prague – Yiwu) is an important carrier for the construction of the Czech station in Zhejiang Province. It is a new bridge for the trade between China and Czech Republic. The trip from Prague is the first since the opening of the China-Europe The first departure from the European routes, but also Yiwu West freight station following the trip to Spain Madrid, the United Kingdom London, Russia, Belarus, Iran, Afghanistan, Central Asia and other countries (regions) after the ninth China-EU international freight class (Prague – Yiwu) to open the line for the Silk Road into the fresh blood, as ‘one way along the way’ to build a new hub for the Czech Republic trade opened up a new channel.

As of the end of July 2017, Yiwu West freight station has been set up in the Central and European countries 214 times, a total of 17204 TEU delivery. Currently, from Spain, Spain, London, Czech Republic, Czech Republic, Prague back to Yiwu, China and Europe have achieved weekly (The end of the day).


Visegrad Post. 2017-08-05. China Sold High-Speed Trains to Czechia

Czech Republic – China has signed a contract to sell three high-speed train trains to Czechia. This is the first Chinese contract for high-speed trains with a country of the European Union.

On December 21, the CRRC Zhuzhou Locomotive group signed a contract worth 20 million euros with the Czech railway company Leo Express, according to the China News Service. According to the agency, trains will run at a speed of 160 km/h and will also be compatible with the Polish and Slovak railway networks. The first train is due to mid 2018.

In 2015, the same Chinese group delivered the same type of train to Macedonia, which is on the road linking the port of Piraeus in Greece, of which China is now majority shareholder, to Belgrade.

As for the high-speed railway linking Belgrade to Budapest, it is planned for the end of 2017 and is financed at 85% by Chinese credits.

Cooperation with China is increasing in Central Europe

This contract is in line with the Chinese project of the New Silk Road. In March 2016, Czech President Zeman had received his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping to talk about the canal project linking the Danube, the Oder and the Elbe.

In June, the President of China visited Poland, where railway projects were also at the center of discussions.

The New Silk Road project is a long-term investment by China, which involves considerably Central and Eastern Europe, as well as the Balkans. As a means of developing missing infrastructure in the region, the heads of states of the CEECs (Central and Eastern European countries) support this cooperation, which is growing every year.


The Telegraph. 2017-06-29. Co-operation between China and Europe runs through Kazakhstan

The Central Asian Republics of the former Soviet Union are hoping to reap the important economic benefits of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

The Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) summit in Kazakhstan took place on 8-9 June. The next day, the 2017 Astana Expo, which is scheduled to last for three months, got under way. These two events are indicative of Kazakhstan’s – and Central Asia’s – growing geopolitical and geoeconomic importance.

China and Russia are the biggest nations that are currently members of the SCO. The other four are all Central Asian states: Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.

Thus, due to its membership, the focus so far of the SCO is undoubtedly on Central Asia. This is also a vital region for the Silk Road Economic Belt, which is half of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

The Silk Road Economic Belt’s overland route to Europe passes through Central Asia. Rail links are undoubtedly the most important aspect of this route. Up to now the performance of these railways has been steady but relatively unspectacular. However, that is set to change as China puts an increasing emphasis on connectivity across the Eurasian landmass.

At a recent conference in Poland, scholars from Sichuan University in Chengdu emphasised how much the China-Europe rail connection has progressed in recent months. In May, for the first time, Polish apples were delivered to Chengdu’s markets by train, they said – and several weeks faster than via the maritime route, demonstrating what can be achieved.

Apples may seem like an insignificant trade item, but in terms of Sino-European co-operation via the Central Asian route, their delivery represents more than a symbolic step forward.

While the number of trains between China and Europe has been increasing rapidly, most of the wagons sent from China have been coming back empty up to now. The fact that Europeans are beginning to see the possibilities for exporting goods to China by rail brings a new dimension to the emerging land route across Russia and Kazakhstan.

The Sichuan University academics pointed out that the city of Chengdu is building a huge railway port to deal with trade to and from Europe.

Next to the port there is a market, some sections of which are set up to sell European luxury goods and other items. The railway through Central Asia is clearly assuming ever greater significance for landlocked Sichuan.

They said that the next step is to persuade European companies that the new trade route can be profitable, and that there are Chinese customers who wish to buy their products. If that happens, the Silk Road Economic Belt will really begin to take off as momentum gathers and more entrepreneurs begin to understand the route’s potential.

As far as Central Asia is concerned, growing Sino-European trade would only be good news. As the route crosses their territories, Central Asians can also cash in, receiving a percentage of the proceeds generated and boosting their economies.

Encouraging increasing economic interdependence between countries is one of the main aims of the Belt and Road Initiative. Improving infrastructure and transport links between countries along the new Silk Road is key to the success of China’s initiative.

At the same time, it is important to remember that the Silk Road Economic Belt is based not on unrealistic dreams but on sound economic principles of supply and demand.

As new markets are created, there is money to be made by anybody who gets involved. This is the reason why President Xi Jinping, who visited Kazakhstan for the SCO summit and the opening of the Astana Expo, continually stresses that the Belt and Road Initiative is intended to create win-win synergies across the more than 60 nations included.

As a facilitating body, the SCO is also key to the success of the new Silk Road’s land route. By providing a forum in which the interested parties can exchange ideas and information, it helps to smooth possible tensions and create an atmosphere of trust, most notably between China and Russia.

Central Asians, who have historical ties to Russia, understand the importance of maintaining a working relationship with their massive northern neighbour. Finding synergies between the SCO and Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union is therefore crucial to the success of the Belt and Road as far as all involved parties are concerned.

Europeans also should realise that it is in their interests to hope for positive outcomes from the SCO summit, and improved links with China via Central Asia and Russia. The world evolves through accepting change rather than resisting it.

Exploring ways to integrate European markets with Asian ones will benefit Europeans, too. The route to China, which passes through Kazakhstan and Central Asia, is therefore likely to turn out to be a vital one as European and Asian markets continue to become economically interdependent during the remainder of the 21st century.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Geopolitica Mondiale

Putin inizia a reagire alle sanzioni. Per il momento radia 755 diplomatici.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-07-31.

bomba_atomica_002

«Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced that 755 staff must leave US diplomatic missions, in retaliation for new US sanctions against Moscow»

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«The decision to expel staff was made on Friday, but Mr Putin has now confirmed the number who must go by 1 September»

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«It brings staff levels to 455, the same as Russia’s complement in Washington»

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«This is thought to be the largest expulsion of diplomats from any country in modern history»

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«Mr Putin suggested he could consider more measures»

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«We have waited long enough, hoping that the situation would perhaps change for the better. But it seems that even if the situation is changing, it’s not for anytime soon»

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Era da molto tempo che ci si domandava fino a quando Mr Putin e la Russia avrebbero avuto pazienza.

Con questo provvedimento, estremamente severo dal punto di vista politico e diplomatico, ma ininfluente su tutti i restanti aspetti relazionali, il Kremlin dichiara esplicitamente che il momento di portare pazienza è terminato.

Ad ogni azione corrisponde una reazione eguale e contraria: per il momento la Russia risponde con una manovra diplomatica senza precedenti nella storia delle relazioni russo – americane. Per il momento, però.

Considerazioni.

– La cultura liberal, che negli Stati Uniti pervade interamente lo schieramento democratico e, parzialmente, anche quello repubblicano, propugna una visione ideologica, in accordo alla quale non è lecito contrarre rapporti di alcun tipo con persone od entità che non condividano pienamente la sua propria Weltanschauung. E questa cultura è anche quella al momento dominante l’establishment europeo, massimamente quello tedesco e francese. Ma gli scollamenti tra classe dirigenziale e popolazione sono sempre più evidenti, ancorchè politicamente non rilevanti.

– Quando l’Occidente liberal dominava il mondo sia dal punto di vista economico, sia politico, sia culturale, esso aveva la possibilità concreta di imporre la propria volontà.

– Se negli anni cinquanta l’Occidente rendeva ragione di oltre il 90% del pil mondiale, ad oggi supera a stento la quota del 40%: i paesi “emergenti” sono emersi sia economicamente, sia politicamente, sia culturalmente, sia anche militarmente. Ed inoltre stanno coordinandosi tra di loro: sono oramai la maggioranza e reclamano il loro spazio vitale. Chiedono di essere rispettati.

– Il resto del mondo non condivide per nulla la Weltanschauung liberal: è una realtà della quale sarebbe molto opportuno prendere atto. Ciò non significa che non abbia valori circa i “diritti umani” e la “democrazia“: solo che questi valori sono semplicemente opposti a quelli dei liberal occidentali, specie nei loro criteri attuativi.

– Se gli Stati Uniti sono sempre una grande superpotenza, specie poi dal punto di vista militare, Russia e Cina sono anche esse superpotenze militari. Ma gli equilibri stanno cambiando velocemente. La Cina si è riappropriata del Mar Cinese del Sud: nei fatti la flotta americana è interdetta in tale zona. Cina e Russia accordano alla Korea del Nord una sorta di protezione che rende vani ed irrealistici i lamenti americani. Anche un paese come l’Iran può permettersi di fronteggiarli, anche esso coperto da Russia e Cina.

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Qui si arriva adesso al cuore della questione.

La rigidità ideologica dei liberals porta inevitabilmente ad uno scontro, scontro dal quale ben difficilmente potrebbero uscirne vittoriosi.

Buon senso e Realpolitik suggerirebbero sempre di perseguire la via diplomatica per appianare le inevitabili controversie: ma la Realpolitik impone anche e soprattutto di accettare la realtà così come essa è. Ciò non significa astenersi dall’operare a proprio vantaggio, sarebbe solo un’altra utopia: significa solo smussare gli angoli ed evitare lo scontro. Le ideologie si propongono, non si impongono. In politica tutto è contrattabile.

Così come in altri tempi l’Occidente fu obbligato a prendere atto dell’esistenza di una Korea divisa in una nazione a Nord ed una a Sud, così come prese atto di aver perso il controllo dell’Indonesia, e del Vietnam in modo specifico, così dovrebbe prendere atto che la situazione ukraina è oramai cristallizzata. Prendere atto non significa minimamente condividere: significa non farne un casus belli.

L’attuale posizione del Senato Americano è troppo rigida, da questo punto di vista,  per consentire un margine di trattative, né sfugge il fatto che sia più condizionata da fattori di politica interna che di politica estera.

Stesso ragionamento sarebbe da estendersi alle posizioni della Bundeskanzlerin Frau Merkel e dell’Unione Europea in senso lato. Sarebbe errore severo considerare le sanzioni votate dal Senato americano disgiunte da quelle approvate dall’Unione Europea.

Una ultima ma ben importante considerazione sarebbe la constatazione di una profonda incoerenza dell’ideologia liberal occidentale, ben riscontrabile nel comportamento tedesco, propaggine europea dei liberal democratici americani. Se Frau Merkel è strenua sostenitrice dei valori liberal e di sanzioni sempre più aspre nei confronti della Russia, ma nel contempo ne è sempre più dipendente almeno dal punto di vista energetico. E lo è al punto tale dal volere fortemente il Nord Stream 2. Né ci si illuda che le tensioni ideologiche nei confronti dei paesi del Visegrad siano ininfluenti sul quadro globale.

Per usare una frase forte, quasi al limite della volgarità, ma che ben renderebbe l’idea, non è produttivo sputare nel piatto ove si mangia.

Conclusione.

La storia evidenzia molto chiaramente come tutte le situazioni di chiusura ideologica si risolvano alla fine in situazioni conflittuali: che vada bene, guerre fredde, ma se qualcosa non dovesse funzionare a dovere, in guerre guerreggiate.

Siamo chiari: meglio un Realpolitik magari insoddisfacente piuttosto che un missile atomico sulla testa.


Bbc. 2017-07-31. Russia’s Putin orders 755 US diplomatic staff to leave

Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced that 755 staff must leave US diplomatic missions, in retaliation for new US sanctions against Moscow.

The decision to expel staff was made on Friday, but Mr Putin has now confirmed the number who must go by 1 September.

It brings staff levels to 455, the same as Russia’s complement in Washington.

This is thought to be the largest expulsion of diplomats from any country in modern history, says the BBC’s Laura Bicker in Washington.

The number includes Russian employees of the US diplomatic missions across Russia, the BBC’s Sarah Rainsford in Moscow adds.

Staff in the embassy in Moscow as well as the consulates in Ekaterinburg, Vladivostok and St Petersburg are affected, she says.

The US said the move was a “regrettable and uncalled for act”.

“We are assessing the impact of such a limitation and how we will respond to it,” a state department official said.

Mr Putin did strike a conciliatory note, saying he did not want to impose more measures, but also said he could not see ties changing “anytime soon”.

Mr Putin told Russian television: “More than 1,000 people were working and are still working” at the US embassy and consulates, and that “755 people must stop their activities in Russia.”

Russia has also said it is seizing holiday properties and a warehouse used by US diplomats.

Mr Putin suggested he could consider more measures, but said: “I am against it as of today.”

He also noted the creation of a de-escalation zone in southern Syria as an example of a concrete result of working together.

However, in terms of general relations, he added: “We have waited long enough, hoping that the situation would perhaps change for the better.

“But it seems that even if the situation is changing, it’s not for anytime soon.”

The new US sanctions were in retaliation both for Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and Russian interference in the US election.

In December, the Obama administration ordered the seizure of two Russian diplomatic compounds and expelled 35 Russian diplomats in response to alleged hacking of the US Democratic Party and Hillary Clinton’s campaign.

The new US sanctions on Russia were overwhelmingly approved by both houses of Congress, despite objections from President Donald Trump who wants warmer ties between the two countries.

The White House said on Friday that he would sign the sanctions bill after fears he could veto it.

Mr Trump was believed to be particularly concerned about a provision in the new bill that limits his ability to lift sanctions – forcing him to consult Congress first.

Some European countries are also angry because the new law could penalise European companies that invest in big Russian oil and gas projects such as the new Nord Stream II pipeline.

US intelligence agencies believe Russia tried to sway the election in favour of Mr Trump and now there are several investigations looking into whether anyone from his campaign helped.

Russia has always denied interfering and Mr Trump insists there was no collusion.


Ansa. 2017-07-31. Putin caccia 755 diplomatici americani da Mosca

Vladimir Putin caccia 755 diplomatici americani dalla Russia in ritorsione alle sanzioni contro Mosca approvate dal Congresso statunitense. L’annuncio del presidente russo conferma il pugno duro di Mosca e arriva nonostante il provvedimento non sia entrato ancora in vigore.

Il testo del progetto di legge e’ infatti sul tavolo del presidente Donald Trump che, pur essendosi impegnato a firmarlo, ancora non lo ha fatto. “Ha detto chiaramente che lo farà” precisa il vice presidente Mike Pence, smorzando le critiche.

In un’intervista a Rossiya 1, Putin parla di pazienza esaurita: “abbiamo aspettato per un po’” un cambiamento e un miglioramento dei rapporti con gli Stati Uniti, “ma giudicando da tutto, se qualcosa cambierà non sarà a breve” afferma il presidente russo. I diplomatici americani dovranno lasciare la Russia entro l’1 settembre: a partire da quel momento gli Stati Uniti potranno contare al massimo 455 diplomatici nelle loro rappresentanze in Russia, cioe’ esattamente quanti ne ha il Cremlino fra ambasciata e consolati americani.

”E’ venuto il momento di mostrare agli Stati Uniti che non lasceremo le loro azioni senza risposta. Washington ha assunto posizioni che peggiorano i nostri rapporti bilaterali e possiamo mettere in campo anche altre misure per rispondere” aggiunge Putin, confermando le parole del vice ministro degli esteri Sergei Ryabkov. In un’intervista ad Abc, Ryabkov ha parlato di ”varie opzioni” a disposizione di Mosca, senza sbilanciarsi sui dettagli. L’annuncio di Putin rappresenta un’escalation negativa nei rapporti con Washington, nonostante il dialogo ”costruttivo” fra Trump e il presidente russo ad Amburgo a margine del G20.

Non è escluso che Mosca possa inasprire ulteriormente la sua ritorsione contro gli Stati Uniti per sanzioni ritenute ingiustificate. Sanzioni criticate duramente anche dall’Unione Europea. E accolte con scetticismo anche da Trump: il provvedimento approvato dal Congresso non impone solo sanzioni alla Russia, ma limita allo stesso tempo l’autorità del presidente su una loro eventuale abolizione. Pur non convinto Trump ha assicurato che firmerà il progetto, decidendo cosi’ di non aprire un nuovo fronte di scontro con il Congresso sulla Russia, che già è al centro delle indagini che vendono coinvolto il presidente

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Geopolitica Mondiale, Unione Europea

EurUsd 1.1751. Mr Trump inizia a stritolare Frau Merkel ed i suoi ‘valori’.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-07-30.

Donald Trump photographed at Trump Tower in NYC
Donald Trump photographed at the Trump Tower on 5th Ave. in Manhattan, NYC on Monday, September 21, 2015. (Damon Winter/ The New York Times)

«A pensar male si fa peccato, ma spesso ci si azzecca».

Profonda frase del grande Andreotti.

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Frau Merkel non è la Germania.

La Germania non è l’Unione Europea.

L’Unione Europea non è la Banca Centrale Europea.

La Banca Centrale Europea sembrerebbe non mettercela mica tutta per tenere basse le quotazioni dell’euro.

2017-07-29__EurUsd__001

Si constata come il tre marzo il rapporto Eur/Usd valesse 1.05 mentre il 28 luglio valeva 1.1751. In cinque mesi questo rapporto ha subito sostanziali variazioni e questo trend sembrerebbe dover durare nel tempo. Sotto la condizione che non varino le situazioni al contorno, se questo andamento si riconfermasse, a fine anno il rapporto Eur/Usd potrebbe toccare il valore di 1.30.

Sarebbe ben difficile non vedere dietro a codesta manovra la sapiente mano della Yellen, che è riuscita a deprezzare il dollaro pur lasciando aumentare i tassi di interesse. Così come sarebbe ben difficile non vedere dietro questa manovra un preciso piano politico americano. Volente o nolente, il quadro dirigenziale europeo alla fine sarà obbligato a razionalizzare che con gli Stati Uniti deve collaborare, non fare la fronda.

L’Eurozona non è forte a sufficienza da poter svolgere una politica monetaria indipendente. Più in generale, le sue ambizioni di indipendenza ed opposizione agli Stati Uniti sono mere utopie.  Mr Juncker e Frau Merkel alla fine saranno obbligati dai fatti a comprendere come sia impossibile risolvere i problemi senza tener conto del contesto generale.

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«Germany, the eurozone’s largest economy, wants to see a tighter policy, which is a better fit for the robust economy. Clearly however, the ECB under Draghi’s stewardship has no intentions of altering current policy until inflation moves closer to the ECB’s target of 2 percent» [Fonte]

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«At the same time, the euro, which has significantly strengthened recently on expectations of the fast curtailment of the QE program in the Eurozone, has a negative impact on inflation expectations. This will make it more difficult for the ECB to make decisions regarding monetary policy. The ECB has repeatedly stressed that to begin the reduction of the program to stimulate the economy of the Eurozone, stable signals of inflation growth in the region are needed. The rate of price growth in the Eurozone last month slowed to 1.3% per annum, being significantly below the target level of the ECB, which is just under 2%. And, according to the leaders of the ECB, the economy of the Eurozone still needs “very significant” incentive measures because of low inflation» [Fonte]

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«According to the OECD’s calculations, fair value for EUR/USD as defined by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) currently lies at 1.34.  Not all methods suggest that fair value is quite so high.  However, the Bloomberg calculated PPPs based on CPI inflation, PPI inflation and the Big Mac method all suggest that EUR/USD is currently between 0.02% and 18.5% undervalued» [Fonte]

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The German economy and the dollar-euro exchange rate

«To clarify why Germany has not recorded an upswing in GDP growth recently despite last year’s marked depreciation of the euro against most other world currencies, which – according to economic intuition – should have stimulated the export-oriented German economy.»

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Già.

«According to economic intuition», una valuta deprezzata dovrebbe favorire le esportazioni. Al contrario, una valuta forte dovrebbe deprimere le esportazioni.

A quanto potrebbe sembrare, la Bundeskanzlerin Frau Merkel non è poi così forte da poter imporre a tutti gli altri, a tutto il mondo, la condivisione della sua scala valoriale e dei suoi desiderata.


Bloomberg. 2017-07-28. Dollar Drops for Third Week as Data Underscore Fed Dilemma

– Greenback falls as GDP, ECI miss ests., health care shelved

– Swiss franc and yen extend declines on policy comparisons

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The dollar was headed for a third straight week of losses as data reinforcing the notion that U.S. inflation pressures are subdued kept the greenback close to a 14-month low.

U.S. economic growth and the employment cost index both missed estimates, while inflation expectations remained muted as the University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading improved in July. The dollar fell further after North Korea launched an intercontinental ballistic missile, extending losses seen after the GDP data and after Republican efforts to repeal Obamacare failed.

– The Bloomberg dollar index is lower by ~0.3% for the day amid month-end selling pressure and is on track for a weekly decline of a similar magnitude. The dollar is trading close to levels from early May 2016. Flows are muted after a hectic week that saw the euro gain about 0.7% vs the greenback and more than 3% vs the Swiss franc

– Investors continue to adjust positions amid shifting expectations for monetary-policy trajectories among the major central banks. Data Friday showed robust economic growth in some European economies and stronger inflation pressure in Germany. The reports underscored ECB President Draghi’s assertion that the regional economy is on a firm footing with reduced downside risk that should enable policy makers to begin discussions soon on tapering asset purchases

– In the U.S., the data amplified the Fed’s decision Wednesday to acknowledge the persistence of subdued inflation pressures, even as employment continues to climb. While the Fed has raised rates twice this year, markets assign less than 50% odds of a third hike for 2017. In contrast, both the SNB and the BOJ have signaled that their policies will remain on hold for the foreseeable future, the SNB also emphasizing that its currency remains overvalued. As a result, the Swiss franc tumbled vs its G-10 peers on the week; the yen dropped by a smaller amount vs most while gaining against the CHF and the USD

– In Friday trading, EUR/USD was trading ~1.1748 vs a high of 1.1764. It was still below the more-than-two-year peak at 1.1777 reached Thursday that offers nearby technical resistance

– USD/JPY was trading ~110.79 after dropping to a fresh low for the day at 110.67 following the North Korea missile launch. The pair tested technical support in the zone below 110.80 that cushioned during the week as the dollar fell with Treasury yields. The 233-DMA at 110.78 also cushioned the pair in recent sessions and may have added to support Friday, one trader said

– Adding to the greenback’s woes, USD/CAD saw its biggest drop in two weeks to a low of 1.2420, after oil gained and Canadian GDP beat all estimates. The data reinforced expectations that the Bank of Canada will hike again in October after raising rates 25bps on July 12

– The Swiss franc extended its weekly drop versus the euro and the dollar, with EUR/CHF rising above 1.1400 in late afternoon. Traders speculate that some M&A-related CHF selling may have exacerbated the drop in the Swiss currency in recent sessions