Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Unione Europea

Blocco Europeo. Settembre21. Immatricolazioni auto crollate di più di un quarto, anno su anno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-10-18.

2021-10-16__ Blocco Europeo Immatricolazioni Auto 001

La Associazione europea dei costruttori di automobili (ACEA) ha rilasciato le statistiche sulle immatricolazioni di automobili nel settembre 2021.

Per il terzo mese consecutivo le immatricolazioni precipitano del +34.4% nel Regno Unito, del -32.7% in Italia, del -25.7% in Germania, e del -20.5% in Francia.

In tutte le nazioni considerate, a settembre si evidenzia un decremento maggiore di quello riportato a luglio.

* * * * * * *

Questo dato non dovrebbe stupire.

Il PPI, Producer Price Index, vale 11.0% nel Regno Unito, il 12% in Germania, e l’11.6% in Italia.

Europa. La stagflazione è in casa per rimanervi. Se ne pigli atto.

Eurozona. Il cigno nero della stagflazione volteggia come un avvoltoio.

ECB. Weidmann e Wunsch votano contro la Lagarde sui tassi di interesse.

Mondo. Stagflazione. Il cigno nero ha fatto il nido. – Financial Times.

* * * * * * *

Questi sono i dati.

Poi, ciascuno se li interpreti come meglio gli aggradi.

Salta però agli occhi come i Cittadini di queste grandi nazioni intendano risparmiare procrastinando il cambio delle autovetture a tempi migliori.

Questi però non sono decrementi, bensì crolli belli e buoni.

Al risparmio operato dai Cittadini si contrappone la rimarchevole perdita subita dai produttori di autoveicoli, perdita che alla fine si riverbererà in una ulteriore riduzione del gettito fiscale ed il ridimensionamento dell’occupazione nel settore. Per non parlare del danno attuale sull’indotto.

E mentre questi fatti accadono sotto gli occhi di tutti, Lagarde e von der Leyen continuano a parlare di ‘clima’, ‘green deal’ ed ‘lgbt’.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Polonia. Corte Suprema. Parti dei Trattati Europei sono incostituzionali.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-10-10.

Polonia Britannica 002

Sono moti anni che la Polonia è in rotta di collisione con l’Unione Europea.

«focused on disputes over the independence of courts, media freedoms, LGBT rights and other issues»

Adesso la sentenza di Corte Costituzionale ribadisce come molte parti dei trattati europei siano in contrasto con la Costituzione polacca.

Simili sentenze erano state già pronunciate in altri paesi europei, per esempio, la Germania.

Germania. Corte Suprema blocca approvazione Recovery Fund.

«ECB isn’t master of universe»

*

Suprema Corte, ECB e Corte Costituzionale tedesca, ovvero il chaos.

* * * * * * *

«Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki welcomed a Polish court ruling that said some parts of European Union treaties are incompatible with the Polish constitution»

«The ruling, announced Thursday, challenges a pillar of European integration and sharply escalates a dispute between Brussels and Warsaw, with the European Commission saying it raised serious concerns»

«Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) party government is embroiled in a battle of values with Brussels, focused on disputes over the independence of courts, media freedoms, LGBT rights and other issues»

«We want a community of respect and not a grouping of those who are equal and more equal. This is our community, our Union»

«Critics have said that by going further and challenging the supremacy of EU law, the PiS government not only jeopardises Poland’s long-term future in the 27-nation bloc but also the stability of the EU itself»

* * * * * * *

Punto nodale è la Weltanschauung che i liberal socialisti europei vorrebbero imporre alla Polonia, e che la Polonia violentemente rigetta in toto.

*


Poland’s PM welcomes Polish court ruling challenging primacy of EU law.

Warsaw, Oct 8 (Reuters) – Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki welcomed a Polish court ruling that said some parts of European Union treaties are incompatible with the Polish constitution in a Facebook post on Friday.

The ruling, announced Thursday, challenges a pillar of European integration and sharply escalates a dispute between Brussels and Warsaw, with the European Commission saying it raised serious concerns.

Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) party government is embroiled in a battle of values with Brussels, focused on disputes over the independence of courts, media freedoms, LGBT rights and other issues.

The prime minister had requested the Constitutional Tribunal to rule on whether EU law has primacy over the Polish constitution.

“We want a community of respect and not a grouping of those who are equal and more equal. This is our community, our Union,” he said in the Facebook post, referring to the European Union.

“This is the kind of Union we want and that’s the kind of Union we will create,” Morawiecki said in the post published in the early hours of Friday.

He also said that Poland wants to stay in the “European family of nations.”

Critics have said that by going further and challenging the supremacy of EU law, the PiS government not only jeopardises Poland’s long-term future in the 27-nation bloc but also the stability of the EU itself.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Eurozona. Harmonised indices of consumer prices +3.4%. – Eurostat.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-10-03.

2021-10-01__ Eurostat 001

Con un PPI, Indice dei prezzi alla produzione, del 12.1% si stenta a credere che nella eurozona l’inflazione sia solo del 3.4%.

Non a caso, Eurostat riporta i dati, gà sottoposti a violento maquillage, come ” harmonised indices of consumer prices (HICP)”, ulteriore manipolazione dei dati grezzi.

2021-10-01__ Eurostat 002

Infatti, i costi dell’energia sono saliti del 17.4%, ma tutti i settori, dall’industria alle famiglie, consumano energia.

Poi, nella Eurozona il wholesale natural gas price nel giro di una anno è salito del 441%, con punte al 500%. Ma quasi la metà dell’energia prodotta nella eurozona deriva dall’uso del gas neturale.

In ogni caso, i dati ufficiali sarebbero questi.

2021-10-01__ Eurostat 003

* * * * * * *

Eurostat. Flash estimate – September 2021. Euro area annual inflation up to 3.4%.

Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 3.4% in September 2021, up from 3.0% in August according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, energy is expected to have the highest annual rate in September (17.4%, compared with 15.4% in August), followed by non-energy industrial goods (2.1%, compared with 2.6% in August), food, alcohol & tobacco (2.1%, compared with 2.0% in August) and services (1.7%, compared with 1.1% in August).

                         Note.

“e” means estimate.

Annual inflation is the change of the price level of consumer goods and services between the current month and the same month of the previous year.

The complete set of harmonised indices of consumer prices (HICP) for the euro area, EU and Member States is released around the middle of the month following the reference month.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

ECB. Eurozona PPI +12.1% YoY. I consiglieri sono in rivolta.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-10-01.

Michelamgelo Minosse 010

Questa è in sintesi la situazione attuale del Blocco Europeo.

Zona Euro. PPI, Indice dei prezzi alla produzione, 12.1% anno su anno

Germania. PPI, Indice dei prezzi alla produzione, 12.0% anno su anno

Italia. PPI, Indice dei prezzi alla produzione, 10.4% anno su anno

Terre Basse. PPI, Indice dei prezzi alla produzione, 13.4% anno su anno

Spagna. PPI, Indice dei prezzi alla produzione, 18.0% anno su anno

Wholesale power and gas prices +250% anno su anno

* * * * * * *

I Membri del Governing Council hanno già ripetutamente avvertito la ECB del pericolo dell’inflazione ingravescente.

ECB. Weidmann e Wunsch votano contro la Lagarde sui tassi di interesse.

Weidmann. ECB dovrebbe ridurre gli stimoli dettati dalla emergenza.

ECB’s Knot Warns Central Bank Could Be Underestimating Inflation

De Nederlandsche Bank. Presidente Knot. ECB tapering entro il marzo2022.

Finanza occidentale. Etf. Uno dei drammi della liquidità delle banche centrali.

Ecb. Fuoco amico (nemico) sulla Lagarde e sulla Ecb. Troppo queruli.

Ecb. Detiene 2,267.424 mld di bond pubblici. Après moi, le déluge.

* * * * * * *

Adesso si unisce ai rivoltosi anche Mario Centeno, Membro del Concilio di Governo della ECB, Governatore della Banca Centrale del Portogallo.

«The ECB has so far insisted that price increases are temporary and it is not yet time to reduce its pandemic-era stimulus measures»

«The European Central Bank needs to be “even more conservative” in how it reacts to inflation in order to avoid repeating past mistakes, Governing Council Member Mario Centeno has told CNBC»

«Rising inflation generally requires a tighter monetary policy, but the ECB has so far insisted that the price increases are temporary and it is not yet time to reduce its pandemic-era stimulus measures»

«The central bank created a new bond-purchase program in March 2020 to support the 19-member bloc throughout the pandemic»

«This program, known as PEPP, is currently set to last until March 2022 and total up to 1.85 trillion euros ($2.2 trillion)»

«At a meeting earlier this month, the ECB decided to slow down the pace of purchases, but ECB President Lagarde said it was not tapering — just a recalibration»

«ECB President Christine Lagarde said that inflation should return to more stable terms next year, “because many of the causes of higher prices are temporary.”»

«Earlier this month, the ECB estimated an inflation rate of 2.2% at the end of year»

* * * * * * *

Christine Lagarde è una persona querula, ben conscia che il suo starnazzare aveva in passato salvato il Campidoglio.

Si resta in ogni caso stupefatti dei dati che riporta sulla inflazione, che sembrerebbero essere del tutto fantasiosi quando siano messi a confronto dei macrodati disponibili.

La sua nomina non fu scelta felice.

* * * * * * *


ECB member says the central bank needs to be ‘even more conservative’.

– The ECB has so far insisted that price increases are temporary and it is not yet time to reduce its pandemic-era stimulus measures.

– “We were fooled by some news on inflation in the past, which prompted us to act in the wrong way,” Centeno said.

*

London — The European Central Bank needs to be “even more conservative” in how it reacts to inflation in order to avoid repeating past mistakes, Governing Council Member Mario Centeno has told CNBC.

The central bank is currently under some pressure given that consumer prices have spiked in recent months. Euro zone inflation hit a 10-year high in August, coming in at 3% from a year ago.

Rising inflation generally requires a tighter monetary policy, but the ECB has so far insisted that the price increases are temporary and it is not yet time to reduce its pandemic-era stimulus measures.

“We were fooled by some news on inflation in the past, which prompted us to act in the wrong way, so we don’t want, definitely, to commit the same sort of errors this time,” Centeno, who serves as the governor of the central bank of Portugal, said on Monday.

The ECB shocked markets when it opted to increase interest rates in 2011, just as the sovereign debt crisis was spreading across the bloc. At the time, then-President Jean-Claude Trichet defended the decision citing higher inflation numbers, but critics have described it as a tipping point for the euro zone — and not in a good way.

“We need to guarantee favorable financing conditions to all sectors in our economy as we go out of [the] crisis and we are not yet there, we are not yet out of the woods,” Centeno said, defending the central bank’s current loose monetary policy stance.

The central bank created a new bond-purchase program in March 2020 to support the 19-member bloc throughout the pandemic. This program, known as PEPP, is currently set to last until March 2022 and total up to 1.85 trillion euros ($2.2 trillion).

At a meeting earlier this month, the ECB decided to slow down the pace of purchases, but ECB President Lagarde said it was not tapering — just a recalibration.

“We need to be very — I’d say even more — conservative in the way we tackle this issue,” he added.

Speaking to CNBC last week, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that inflation should return to more stable terms next year, “because many of the causes of higher prices are temporary.”

These include higher energy prices and bottlenecks in supply chains.

Earlier this month, the ECB estimated an inflation rate of 2.2% at the end of year. This number is then expected to come down to 1.7% and 1.5%, respectively in 2022 and 2023. Revised forecasts are due in December.

But some experts have questioned whether some inflationary pressures are here to stay.

When speaking with CNBC, Centeno reiterated that, so far, inflation is not where the ECB wants it to be before reducing stimulus.

“We already see something going on that front, but when we look at our projection horizon, inflation is not anchored yet at 2%,” he said, adding that as a result the ECB needs to continue with its set of measures.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime, Unione Europea

Blocco Europeo è strangolato dai rincari del 280% YoY del Gas Naturale. – Mr Putin ringrazia.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-23.

2021-09-22__ Gas prices 001

Il mercato dell’energia americano è una realtà separata e differente da quella del Blocco Europeo.

Se è vero che sul mercato americano il natural gas abbia costi di produzione aumentati di oltre il 100% nell’ultimo anno, sarebbe altrettanto vero constatare come sul mercato del Blocco Europeo il wholesale power prices del natural gas sia levitato oltre il 250%.

Ricordiamo come il termine “wholesale power prices” significhi “the price that a store or business pays for goods that it will then sell to the public”: è il prezzo praticato dai grossisti per i grossisti.

«→→ The gas market chaos, which has driven prices 280% higher in Europe this year and led to a 100%-plus surge in the United States, is being blamed on a range of factors from low storage levels to carbon prices to reduced Russian supplies ←←»

«→→ The story emerging from the UK energy sector will soon be more relevant to the European market than Evergrande ←←»

Questi prezzi del natural gas sono tali da strozzare il sistema produttivo e condurre rapidamente al fallimento, come sta accadendo nel Regno Unito.

* * * * * * *

«Low inventory around the world has made heating fuel more expensive than it has been in years»

«Rock-bottom gas prices have been a reliable feature of the US economy since the financial crisis»

«The gas is burned to generate electricity and heat homes and to make plastics, steel and fertilizers»

«A substantial and sustained increase in prices will be felt from households to heavy industry.»

* * *

«Soaring gas prices that threaten to push up winter fuel bills, hurt consumption and exacerbate a near-term spike in inflation are another blow to a world economy just getting back on its feet after the coronavirus shock»

«→→ The gas market chaos, which has driven prices 280% higher in Europe this year and led to a 100%-plus surge in the United States, is being blamed on a range of factors from low storage levels to carbon prices to reduced Russian supplies ←←»

«Whatever the causes, the surge carries major market implications»

«the impact in the United States …. should be small. While over a third of U.S. energy consumption in 2020 was supplied by natural gas»

«Overall though, higher gas prices raise the risk of stagflation – high inflation, low growth»

«Euro zone wholesale power prices are at record highs, potentially exacerbating inflation pressures inflicted by COVID-related supply bottlenecks»

«In Germany, 310,000 households face an 11.5% increase in gas bills»

«Noting German factory gate prices were already the highest since 1974, Citi analysts predicted 5% hikes for electricity and gas prices in January, adding 0.25 percentage points to consumer inflation next year»

«Cuts in fertiliser production could also lift food prices»

«Central banks are sticking with the line that the spike in inflation is temporary»

«This week’s central bank meetings could test policymakers’ resolve»

«With UK producer price inflation soaring, shipping costs showing little sign of cooling, commodity prices higher up and job vacancies tipping 1 million, there is a growing chance that higher prices will stick around for longer»

«more (BoE) members may move quickly to vote for a rate rise sooner than expected next year, but it would be an unpopular course of action with looming tax rises already hard to digest for many consumers»

«Britain is considering offering state-backed loans to energy firms after big suppliers requested support to cover the cost of taking on customers from companies that went bust under the impact of gas prices»

«→→ The story emerging from the UK energy sector will soon be more relevant to the European market than Evergrande ←←»

* * *

«British energy firms fear collapse as Europe’s gas crisis sees prices surge 250%»

«Britain’s energy industry could be headed for a significant shake-up, industry insiders have warned, as countries all over Europe grapple with an unprecedented crisis in the power sector»

«Wholesale gas prices have spiked across the region, with the U.K. being hit particularly hard»

«The front-month gas price at the Dutch TTF hub, a European benchmark for natural gas trading, gained on Monday to trade at 73.150 euros ($85.69) per megawatt-hour, hovering close to the record high seen last week»

«Since January, the contract has risen more than 250%»

«the crisis was being caused by a “cocktail of pretty potent things” that were outside of suppliers’ control»

«→→ These included strong competition for natural gas deliveries between Europe and Asia, some outages at U.S. production facilities, and a tightening of EU carbon market rules ←←»

«Start-up Bulb, the country’s sixth-largest supplier, is seeking a bailout, while four smaller competitors recently ceased trading»

* * * * * * *

Non esiste sistema economico che possa produrre alcunché senza costi ragionevoli dell’energia.

Nel Blocco Europeo gli energetici, già cari di per sé stessi, sono inoltre gravati da una pletora di tasse e balzelli ecologici, alle quali va imputata gran parte del sovrapprezzo.

Di ideologia si muore.

* * * * * * *


Natural-Gas Prices Surge, and Winter Is Still Months Away.

«                       Low inventory around the world has made heating fuel more expensive than it has been in years

It’s considered the off-season for demand, and prices haven’t climbed as high since a blizzard lashed the Northeast in early 2014. Analysts say this winter should not be cold enough to push prices to heights unknown during the shale era, which turned the US from a gas importer to a supplier to the world.

Rock-bottom gas prices have been a reliable feature of the US economy since the financial crisis. The effluents extracted with sideways drilling and hydraulic fracturing caused the gas to crash and never recovered. The gas is burned to generate electricity and heat homes and to make plastics, steel and fertilizers. A substantial and sustained increase in prices will be felt from households to heavy industry.

The stock has already received a lift from $5 gas.»

* * *

Gas price surge, just one more headwind for world economy.

London, Sept 20 (Reuters) – Soaring gas prices that threaten to push up winter fuel bills, hurt consumption and exacerbate a near-term spike in inflation are another blow to a world economy just getting back on its feet after the coronavirus shock.

The gas market chaos, which has driven prices 280% higher in Europe this year and led to a 100%-plus surge in the United States, is being blamed on a range of factors from low storage levels to carbon prices to reduced Russian supplies.

So high are tensions that several European Parliament lawmakers have demanded an investigation into what they said could be market manipulation by Russia’s Gazprom.

Whatever the causes, the surge carries major market implications:

                         1/GROWTH

Analysts say it’s too early to downgrade economic growth forecasts but a hit to economic activity looks inevitable.

Morgan Stanley reckons the impact in the United States, the world’s biggest economy, should be small. While over a third of U.S. energy consumption in 2020 was supplied by natural gas, users were predominantly industrial, it notes.

Overall though, higher gas prices raise the risk of stagflation – high inflation, low growth.

“It is quite clear there is a growing sense of unease about the economic outlook as a growing number of companies look ahead to the prospect of rising costs,” said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets.

                         2/INFLATION

Euro zone wholesale power prices are at record highs, potentially exacerbating inflation pressures inflicted by COVID-related supply bottlenecks. In Germany, 310,000 households face an 11.5% increase in gas bills, data showed on Monday.

Noting German factory gate prices were already the highest since 1974, Citi analysts predicted 5% hikes for electricity and gas prices in January, adding 0.25 percentage points to consumer inflation next year.

Higher food costs are another side effect, given a shortage of carbon dioxide which is used in slaughterhouses and to prolong the shelf-life of food. Cuts in fertiliser production could also lift food prices.

Goldman Sachs predicts higher oil demand, with a $5 per barrel upside risk to its fourth-quarter 2021 Brent price forecast of $80 a barrel. Brent is trading at about $74 currently .

                         3/CENTRAL BANKS

Central banks are sticking with the line that the spike in inflation is temporary — European Central Bank board member Isabel Schnabel said on Monday she was happy with the broad-based rise in inflation.

But as market- and consumer-based measures of inflation expectations rise, gas prices will be on central banks’ radar.

“If we have higher inflation, transitory or structural, and have slower growth – it will be a very tricky situation for markets and central banks to assess, navigate and communicate,” said Piet Haines Christiansen, chief strategist at Danske Bank.

This week’s central bank meetings could test policymakers’ resolve. The Bank of England meeting on Thursday is in particular focus, given UK inflation has just hit a nine-year high.

With UK producer price inflation soaring, shipping costs showing little sign of cooling, commodity prices higher up and job vacancies tipping 1 million, there is a growing chance that higher prices will stick around for longer, said Susannah Streeter, senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

“If they do, more (BoE) members may move quickly to vote for a rate rise sooner than expected next year, but it would be an unpopular course of action with looming tax rises already hard to digest for many consumers,” she said.

                         4/ STATE BAILOUTS

Britain is considering offering state-backed loans to energy firms after big suppliers requested support to cover the cost of taking on customers from companies that went bust under the impact of gas prices. One firm, Bulb, is reportedly seeking a bailout.

France meanwhile plans one-off 100 euro ($118) payments to millions of households to help with energy bills.

“The story emerging from the UK energy sector will soon be more relevant to the European market than Evergrande,” said Althea Spinozzi, senior fixed income Strategist at Saxo Bank.

And in a week packed with central bank meetings, she added that markets were “right to fret.”

5/COMPANIES

Spain shocked the utility sector last week by redirecting billions of euros in energy companies’ profits to consumers and capping increases in gas prices. Revenue hits at Iberdrola and Endesa were estimated by RBC at one billion euros and shares in the companies sold off heavily.

Since the move, investors have fretted about contagion to other countries, Morgan Stanley said. While seeing those fears as overdone, the bank acknowledged there was a risk of margin squeezes at European utilities in coming months.

Sector shares are down for the third week straight.

* * *

British energy firms fear collapse as Europe’s gas crisis sees prices surge 250%.

– Britain’s energy industry could be headed for a significant shake-up, industry insiders have warned, as countries all over Europe grapple with an unprecedented crisis in the power sector.

– Wholesale gas prices have spiked across the region, with the U.K. being hit particularly hard.

*

London — Britain’s energy industry could be headed for a significant shake-up, industry insiders have warned, as countries all over Europe grapple with an unprecedented crisis in the power sector.

Wholesale gas prices have spiked across the region, with the U.K. being hit particularly hard.

The front-month gas price at the Dutch TTF hub, a European benchmark for natural gas trading, gained on Monday to trade at 73.150 euros ($85.69) per megawatt-hour, hovering close to the record high seen last week.

Since January, the contract has risen more than 250%.

In the U.K., day-ahead energy prices for Monday reached an average of 291.18 euros per megawatt-hour, according to energy analysis firm LCP Enact. However, the maximum price for the U.K. on Monday could be as high as 1,083.78 euros per megawatt-hour, LCP Enact’s analysis showed.

                         Impact for energy firms

Robert Buckley, head of relationship development at Cornwall Insight, told CNBC that the crisis was being caused by a “cocktail of pretty potent things” that were outside of suppliers’ control.

These included strong competition for natural gas deliveries between Europe and Asia, some outages at U.S. production facilities, and a tightening of EU carbon market rules, as well as various other factors.

“All suppliers will be finding it very tough at the moment,” Buckley said. “Some of them are bigger and more resilient than others. But scale doesn’t automatically equal resilience.”

He added that “it looks like it’s going to get worse before it gets better” in terms of suppliers leaving the British electricity and gas market.

″[Suppliers are] caught between this rapture of the rising energy price wholesale market and the default tariff cap, and depending on who you believe, this is anywhere up to £200, £250 [$273, $341] below what a market-related cost would be at the moment, so that’s 20% of the total bill,” he said, referring to a cap on consumer energy prices in Britain. “That’s -20% of gross margins. Very few [companies] can sustain that for any length of time.”

Meanwhile, Bill Bullen, founder of U.K. supplier Utilita Energy, warned that surging wholesale prices would inevitably lead to more insolvencies in the energy sector.

“We’re heading back to an oligopoly at this rate and going backwards,” he said in an email Monday.

According to a report from Cornwall Insight, in the fourth quarter of 2010, the six largest energy firms supplied 99.5% of the domestic energy market in the U.K. By the second quarter of 2021, that figure had fallen to 69.1%.

“I wonder how it will look at the end of Q3 2021,” Bullen said.

Start-up Bulb, the country’s sixth-largest supplier, is seeking a bailout, while four smaller competitors recently ceased trading, the BBC reported.

According to industry body OGUK, wholesale energy prices have surged with a 70% rise since August alone. “OGUK predicts that UK North Sea output will roughly halve by 2027 unless new fields are opened, making the U.K. even more reliant on imports,” Will Webster, the organization’s energy policy manager, told CNBC via email.

A spokesperson for British energy regulator Ofgem told CNBC in an emailed statement, “This is a global issue … Ofgem is working closely with government to manage the wider implications of the global gas price increase.”

                         Political fallout

Governments are keen to take action to stop the crisis hitting consumers too hard.

The British government is considering bailout loans for energy suppliers, according to local media reports. Business Minister Kwasi Kwarteng met with British energy companies on Monday, in what he said was an effort to “ensure that any energy supplier failures cause the least amount of disruption for consumers.”

Seeking to reassure the public Sunday, Prime Minister Boris Johnson described the pricing crisis as “temporary,” Bloomberg reported.

The U.K. has limits on how much suppliers are able to charge consumers for energy, with price caps reviewed by the government every six months.

In a note Monday, Eurasia Group warned the Continent’s soaring energy prices were also beginning to have political ramifications across the wider region.

Spain’s government released a decree this week to cap retail energy prices. Eurasia analysts speculated that if more EU member states imitate Spain, prioritizing cheap energy above the green transition, the EU’s credibility as a climate leader could be damaged.

“If Madrid’s actions find imitators across the EU this winter, the bloc’s efforts to push for more ambitious climate action at the upcoming global talks in November may suffer,” they said in Monday’s note.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Germania. Il 26 settembre si vota. Union crollata dal 37% al 20%, Spd salita al 25%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-20.

2021-09-20__ Germania polls 002

Dopo sedici anni di cancellierato Merkel, la Germania sembrerebbe decisa a voltare pagina.

Herr Scholz ha promesso di praticare una Realpolitik, avulsa dalle ideologie. La Germania ha un disperato bisogno di avere una politica adeguata alla realtà dei fatti, con senso pratico.

La Union, ossia Cdu e Csu, è adessi quotata al 20%, di cui Csu 6% e Cdu 14%

Mai nella storia della federazione la Union aveva avuto un risultato così catastrofico.

Merkel ad aprile si è incaponita a mettere quale candidato cancelliere Herr Armin Laschet, il cui unico merito sarebbe quello di essere un replicante della Merkel. Avrebbe voluto che le sue ideologie perdurassero nel tempo. Errore madornale. La superbia acceca la mente.

Così, da un solito 37% capitalizzato il 30 aprile, in solo sei mesi Merkel ed Herr Armin Laschet ha distrutto la Union, ma soprattutto la Cdu.

Poco consola che i Grüne siano anche essi crollati dal 25% al 15%, segno evidente di quanto gli elettori si siano disaffezionati dai problemi ecologici.

Come risultato finale, la Germania esperirà un vorticoso periodo caotico, di coalizioni di convenienza tra forze politiche divergenti.

Non sarà solo un problema tedesco, bensì di tutta la Europa.

*


As Germany’s general elections near, things are going wrong for the right.

For the first time in over a decade, Germany’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) is leading in polls of voter intentions in front of Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), just as the general elections are due in September. This unprecedented situation owes a lot to the centre-right candidate, Armin Laschet, who has made several blunders. 

Angela Merkel is leaving, but her CDU will stay: this had been the most likely scenario for the German general election, to be held on September 26. But a small political revolution has taken place, just one month before the vote. For the first time in 15 years, the centre-left SPD overtook the conservatives CDU in the polls. With barely 10 days left until the vote, the Social Democrats are comfortably in the lead with 25 percent of intended voters, while Merkel’s CDU has just 21 percent. 

“This is surprising because the SPD had been stagnating around or below 20 percent in voting intentions at the national level for about 10 years,” Thomas Poguntke, a political scientist at the University of Düsseldorf, told FRANCE 24.

                         Laschet: laughing and vague

At the same time, the CDU has dropped nearly 10 points in voter intentions since mid-July. The polls are certainly not gospel, “but in this case, they confirm a trend observed for several weeks in the campaign, namely the difficulties of the conservative candidate”, Klaus Schubert, a political scientist at the Institute for Political Research at the University of Münster, told FRANCE 24.

Armin Laschet, the CDU candidate on the right who wants to replace Merkel as chancellor, does not seem to be doing well. In particular, he made a series of mistakes during the catastrophic floods in Germany in mid-July. One image in particular did not go down well with the Germans: that of a laughing Laschet standing behind Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who, in a serious tone, was giving a speech on the destruction caused by the heavy rain.

And that is not all. He also appears “to be particularly unspecific in his positions and often remains very vague”, Schubert said. In the first of three scheduled televised debates with the other two main candidates – Olaf Scholz for the SPD and Annalena Baerbock for the Greens – he was the only one who would not say where he would go for his first official trip as chancellor. “That’s an easy and classic question,” Schubert said.

He put in a fiery performance in the second debate, but again failed to deliver a knockout blow. 

Laschet is not solely responsible for his troubles; current events have not helped him. The floods, the pandemic and the return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan are all issues that allow someone who already has political responsibilities to shine. And that’s what Scholz did. “As finance minister, he was able to appear as the saviour by promising, for example, to release the necessary funds for the flood victims or to not skimp on spending to address the health crisis,” Schubert said.

                         Where is Angela Merkel?

The CDU also seems reluctant in its support of Laschet and appears “not to know how to make this candidate represent the ideas of the party”, Wolfgang Schroeder, a political scientist at the Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (Berlin Scientific Research Center), told FRANCE 24.

Laschet said it himself: “You can’t run a campaign alone.”

Even Merkel was quiet in her support for her party’s candidate until late in the campaign. “The absence of involvement from the chancellor, who could have used a little of her popularity to help Laschet, remains for me one of the great mysteries of this campaign,” Stefan Marschall, a political scientist at the University of Düsseldorf, told FRANCE 24.

Add to that the voices on the right that are putting obstacles in his way. Markus Söder, the head of the centre-right Christian Social Union in Bavaria, “never misses an opportunity to stress that he would have done better than Laschet”, said Poguntke. The political scientist sees his failure to bring the right along with him as one of the main weaknesses of the CDU candidate’s campaign: “He has absolutely failed to surround himself with a team of his own, which means that everyone on the right seems to be playing for themselves.”

In contrast to the disunity of the CDU, the SPD “has succeeded in appearing to be a party in close ranks behind its candidate, who is also one of the leading figures in the current government”, Marschall noted.

                         An apocalyptic picture

Laschet had hoped to be the face of continuity after Merkel, but in the end “Scholz appears to be the natural successor to the outgoing chancellor”, Schroeder said. “He has the same political pragmatism, knows how to be very flexible and has real experience on the international scene.”

Laschet has very little time left to turn things around if he wants to avoid a CDU defeat in the upcoming election. The most likely scenario is “that the conservatives will play the doomsday card and paint a bleak future if the left comes to power”, said Schroeder.

It is hard to say whether that kind of strategy would work. On one hand, such an approach could be effective with Germans because “they are politically rather conservative and do not like experiments in government”, Marschall said.

On the other hand, the “apocalyptic” argument is just as likely to fail because, for many, Scholz is not scary, as “he symbolises continuity more than any candidate, since he is already in government”, said Schubert.

In the event that Laschet fails to recover, there is growing discussion in Germany of a new scenario at the federal level: the possibility of a three-party government. But would that be with or without the CDU?

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Eurostat. Agosto21. Inflazione annualizzata 3.2% nel blocco europeo.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-20.

Immagine.png2021-09-20__ Eurostat 001

Eurostat ha rilasciato il Report Annual inflation up to 3.0% in the euro area.

August 2021

Annual inflation up to 3.0% in the euro area. Up to 3.2% in the EU .

The euro area annual inflation rate was 3.0% in August 2021, up from 2.2% in July. A year earlier, the rate was -0.2%. European Union annual inflation was 3.2% in August 2021, up from 2.5% in July. A year earlier, the rate was 0.4%. These figures are published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

The lowest annual rates were registered in Malta (0.4%), Greece (1.2%) and Portugal (1.3%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Estonia, Lithuania and Poland (all 5.0%). Compared with July, annual inflation remained stable in one Member State and rose in twenty-six.

In August, the highest contribution to the annual euro area inflation rate came from energy (+1.44 percentage points, pp), followed by non-energy industrial goods (+0.65 pp) and food, alcohol & tobacco and services (both +0.43 pp).

* * * * * * *

Come si constata dalla Tabella sottostante, il settore energetico rende ragione di una inflazione del 15.4%. Però, sia privati cittadini sia industria devono sottostare a codesti aumenti.

Immagine.png2021-09-20__ Eurostat 002

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

ECB. Riserve Totali salite a 1,009.380 miliardi. È avvenuta una mutazione.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-19.

2021-09-16__ ECB 001

La Banca Centrale Europea ha rilasciato il report Template on international reserves and foreign currency liquidity.

Allegati da leggersi con grande cura:

Official reserve assets and other foreign currency assets

Predetermined short-term net drains on foreign currency assets

Contingent short-term net drains on foreign currency assets

Memo items

2021-09-16__ ECB 002

* * * * * * *

Nella ECB è avvenuta una mutazione, che si è manifestata in un aumento di 120.890 miliardi dello Official Reserve Assets, che adesso è a bilancio per 1,009.380 miliardi.

Si noti anche come le Foreign Currency Reserves (in convertible foreign currencies) ammontino a 269,532 miliardi, mentre larga quota, 530,588 miliardi, è da ascriversi al Gold (including gold deposits and gold swapped).

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Unione Europea

Blocco Europeo. 2021Q2. Pil -2.5%, occupati -2.1 milioni, comparati con 2019Q4.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-11.

2021-09-08__ Eurostat Pil 001

Molto correttamente, Eurostat riporta le variazioni percentuali sul trimestre precedente.

Infatti, il 2020Q2 fu particolarmente depresso, per cui il rapporto 2021Q2/2020Q2 risulta essere abnormemente elevato, inaffidabile.

Sempre molto correttamente, Eurostat paragona questi macrodati con quelli del 2019Q4, ultimo trimestre prima della crisi pandemica.

«Based on seasonally adjusted figures, GDP volumes were 2.5% and 2.2% below their highest level of the fourth quarter 2019 for the euro area and EU. For the United States, GDP was 0.8% higher than the level of the fourth quarter 2019»

«employment in persons was 2.1 million in the euro area and 2.0 million in the EU below the level of the fourth quarter of 2019»

* * * * * * *


Eurostat ha rilasciato il Report GDP up by 2.2% and employment up by 0.7% in the euro area. In the EU, GDP up by 2.1% and employment up by 0.7%

                         GDP growth in the euro area and the EU

In the second quarter of 2021, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 2.2% in the euro area and by 2.1% in the EU compared with the previous quarter, according to an estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the first quarter of 2021, GDP had declined by 0.3% in the euro area and 0.1% in the EU.  

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 14.3% in the euro area and by 13.8% in the EU in the second quarter of 2021, after -1.2% in both zones in the previous quarter.

During the second quarter of 2021, GDP in the United States increased by 1.6% compared with the previous quarter (after +1.5% in the first quarter of 2021). Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, GDP increased by 12.2% (after +0.5% in the previous quarter).

                         GDP growth by Member State

Ireland (+6.3%) recorded the sharpest increase of GDP compared to the previous quarter, followed by Portugal (+4.9%), Latvia (+4.4%) and Estonia (+4.3%). Declines were observed in Malta (-0.5%) and Croatia (-0.2%).

                         GDP components and contributions to growth

During the second quarter of 2021, household final consumption expenditure increased by 3.7% in the euro area and by 3.5% in the EU (after -2.1% in the euro area and -1.7% in the EU in the previous quarter). Government final consumption expenditure increased by 1.2% in both zones (after -0.5% both in the previous quarter). Gross fixed capital formation increased by 1.1% in the euro area and by 1.0% in the EU (after -0.2% and +0.3% respectively). Exports increased by 2.2% in the euro area and by 1.8% the EU (after +0.7% in both areas). Imports increased by 2.3% in the euro area and by 2.2% in the EU (after +0.4% and +0.6%).

Household final consumption expenditure had strong positive contributions to GDP growth in both the euro area and the EU (+1.9 and +1.7 percentage points – pp, respectively). The contributions from government final expenditure (+0.3 pp in both zones) and gross fixed capital formation (+0.2 pp in both zones) were also positive. The contribution from the external balance was close to neutral for both zones, while the contribution from changes in inventories was slightly negative for the euro area and neutral for the EU.

                         GDP levels in the euro area and EU

Based on seasonally adjusted figures, GDP volumes were 2.5% and 2.2% below their highest level of the fourth quarter 2019 for the euro area and EU. For the United States, GDP was 0.8% higher than the level of the fourth quarter 2019.

                         Employment growth in the euro area and EU

The number of employed persons increased by 0.7% in both the euro area and in the EU in the second quarter of 2021, compared with the previous quarter. In the first quarter of 2021, employment had decreased by 0.2% in both the euro area and the EU.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, employment increased by 1.8% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU in the second quarter of 2021, after -1.8% and -1.6% respectively in the first quarter of 2021.

Hours worked increased by 2.7% in the euro area and by 2.4% in the EU in the second quarter of 2021, compared with the previous quarter. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year the increases were 17.0% in the euro area and 14.7% in the EU (see annex table on employment in hours worked).

These data provide a picture of labour input consistent with the output and income measure of national accounts.

                         Employment growth in Member States

In the second quarter of 2021, Latvia (+5.7%), Greece (+2.8%), Denmark and Portugal (both +1.9%) recorded the highest growth of employment in persons compared with the previous quarter. Decreases were observed in Estonia (-1.1%) and Spain (-0.9%).

                         Employment levels in the euro area and EU

Based on seasonally adjusted figures, Eurostat estimates that in the second quarter of 2021, 207.5 million people were employed in the EU, of which 159.0 million were in the euro area.

In relation to the COVID-19 pandemic, employment in persons was 2.1 million in the euro area and 2.0 million in the EU below the level of the fourth quarter of 2019.

                         Evolution of labour productivity in the euro area and EU

The combination of GDP and employment data allows an estimation of labour productivity. The analysis of growth compared to the same quarter of the previous year shows that productivity growth (based on employed persons) fluctuated around 1% for both zones between 2013 and 2018.

In relation to the COVID-19 pandemic, productivity based on persons increased compared to the same quarter of the previous year with 12.2% for the euro area and 11.6% for the EU.

Based on hours worked, productivity compared to the same quarter of the previous year decreased by 1.5% for the euro area and increased by 0.3% for the EU.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime, Unione Europea

Blocco europeo. Prezzi degli energetici fuori controllo. Stagflazione in casa.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-10.

2021-09-08__Europa Natural Gas 002

Il tre settembre il carbone quotava 179, +122.36% anno su anno, il natural gas 4.694, +84.88% sempre anno su anno.

* * *

«Europe is facing a shock in energy prices as natural gas and electricity costs hit record highs»

«A gas supply crisis is pushing up the cost of electricity generation from the UK to Germany, as businesses reopen and people return to the office, increasing demand»

«Rising prices are fueling inflation and threatening to halt economic recovery as energy-intensive industries from fertilizer to steel may need to curb production»

«Prices are rallying, even though it is still summer, when demand is usually low, setting the stage for a tough winter»

«Utilities are raising prices for consumers at the same time raising everything from food to transportation costs, a headache for politicians trying to garner support for the energy transition»

«The problem hasn’t even started yet, …. Europe will face a very cold winter»

«Warmer weather and lower wind speeds are curbing renewable energy production, increasing the use of fossil fuel-powered generation and driving up the price of coal in Europe by more than 70% this year»

«Europe is facing a gas shortage after storage sites were emptied after a cold winter»

«Boosting inventory – already the lowest in less than a decade – hasn’t been easy, with top supplier Russia limiting inflows at a time when Asia is scooping up cargo of liquefied natural gas that would otherwise go to Europe. can go»

«Domestic production is also declining, with the giant Groningen gas field in the Netherlands possibly closing three years ahead of schedule»

«we can have spot prices reach the triple digits»

«Energy executives from Italian utility giant Enel SpA and Austrian oil and gas major OMV AG have already warned of a tough winter ahead»

«gas and electricity prices in Europe could translate into a 20% increase in the average double fuel utility bill of European retail consumers»

«Monday’s prices hit a record low after low wind and a delayed return of two nuclear reactors meant additional supplies were scarce. While network operator National Grid plc reassured the market that the situation was manageable, it acknowledged that the cushion of excess supply this winter is going to be less than last year»

«Higher gas prices are making coal production more profitable, increasing the cost of the carbon permits needed to cover emissions»

* * * * * * *

Mondo. La catena degli approvvigionamenti continua a peggiorare.

Baltic Dray Index 4,235, Materie Prime ancora in salita. Inflazione.

Putin riduce giorno dopo giorno le forniture di gas naturale ad una Europa quasi senza scorte.

Kremlin. Putin. La Russia potenzia estrazione ed esportazione del carbone.

Mondo. Prezzi Materie Prime sempre in crescita. L’inflazione è una realtà duratura.

* * * * * * *

Il tre settembre il carbone quotava 179, +122.36% anno su anno, il natural gas 4.694, +84.88% sempre anno su anno.

Si aggiunga poi che tutti gli stati europei applicano agli energetici una severa tassazioni ecologica, fatto questo che fa ulteriormente levitare i costi, generando una suppletiva inflazione.

Questo è quanto.

*


Europe Faces Energy Price Shock With Gas and Power at Records

Europe is facing a shock in energy prices as natural gas and electricity costs hit record highs.

A gas supply crisis is pushing up the cost of electricity generation from the UK to Germany, as businesses reopen and people return to the office, increasing demand. Rising prices are fueling inflation and threatening to halt economic recovery as energy-intensive industries from fertilizer to steel may need to curb production.

Prices are rallying, even though it is still summer, when demand is usually low, setting the stage for a tough winter. Utilities are raising prices for consumers at the same time raising everything from food to transportation costs, a headache for politicians trying to garner support for the energy transition.

“The problem hasn’t even started yet,” said Julien Horau, head of EnergyScan, the analytics unit of French utility Engie SA. “Europe will face a very cold winter.”

Benchmark European gas futures trading in the Netherlands hit record highs on Monday, as did UK prices. Short-term electricity in Britain also rose to an all-time high, as year-ahead contracts in Germany – Europe’s biggest electricity market – also climbed to a record high.

Warmer weather and lower wind speeds are curbing renewable energy production, increasing the use of fossil fuel-powered generation and driving up the price of coal in Europe by more than 70% this year. All this brought the cost of pollution to an all-time high in Europe.

Europe is facing a gas shortage after storage sites were emptied after a cold winter. Boosting inventory – already the lowest in less than a decade – hasn’t been easy, with top supplier Russia limiting inflows at a time when Asia is scooping up cargo of liquefied natural gas that would otherwise go to Europe. can go.

Europe could not rely on its own production, with numerous blockages from the North Sea disrupting flows. Domestic production is also declining, with the giant Groningen gas field in the Netherlands possibly closing three years ahead of schedule. Gas prices are so high that they are trading at a rare premium to crude.

Rising energy prices have sent German inflation to its highest level since 2008. Prices rose 3.4% in August, higher than the 2% rate targeted by the European Central Bank for the euro area. Things could be worse still if cold weather recurs in 2018, when animals from the east brought freezing temperatures to Western Europe.

“If we have a weather event like the Beast of the East, I wouldn’t be surprised that we can have spot prices reach the triple digits,” Horau said.

Energy executives from Italian utility giant Enel SpA and Austrian oil and gas major OMV AG have already warned of a tough winter ahead. According to Citigroup Inc., gas and electricity prices in Europe could translate into a 20% increase in the average double fuel utility bill of European retail consumers.

“The ghost of energy poverty could quickly fall across Europe this winter,” Citi analysts, including Alistair Syme, said in a note.

Utilities in the UK from Electricity de France SA to EON SE have already raised domestic rates.

“As the current strength in wholesale prices feeds rapidly through retail tariffs in the coming months, attention is likely to increase on the role of governments in mitigating the effects of the increase in both the short and medium term,” said Glenn Rixon, chief Said of European power analysis at S&P Global Platts in London.

The UK electricity market is already showing signs of tension and it is not even cold yet. Monday’s prices hit a record low after low wind and a delayed return of two nuclear reactors meant additional supplies were scarce. While network operator National Grid plc reassured the market that the situation was manageable, it acknowledged that the cushion of excess supply this winter is going to be less than last year.

Higher gas prices are making coal production more profitable, increasing the cost of the carbon permits needed to cover emissions.

“Those who trade the carbon market are hostages to the fortunes of gas,” said Louis Redshaw, director of Redshaw Advisors Ltd. If gas prices fall, those lignite plants will run out of money and the people who own that carbon will want to sell.”