Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime, Unione Europea

Blocco Europeo. Siccità e calura rimettono in auge la siesta, ma si prepara all’inverno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-08-09.

2022-08-08__ Van Gogh La Siesta 001

«Extreme temperatures could help revive another traditional Spanish heat adaptation: the siesta»

* * * * * * *

In tutta Europa, le città a corto di gas si preparano a spegnere le luci. Limiti al risparmio energetico sull’illuminazione e sull’uso dei condizionatori d’aria hanno attirato l’attenzione in Spagna, Francia e Germania.

A seguito delle argomentazioni della scorsa settimana da parte di un Primo Ministro Pedro Sanchez adeguatamente privo di cravatta, la Spagna ha pubblicato martedì nuove regole che stabiliscono che nessuna attività commerciale sarà autorizzata a raffreddare i propri interni al di sotto dei 27 gradi Celsius (81 gradi Fahrenheit) o a riscaldarli al di sopra dei 19 gradi Celsius (66 gradi Fahrenheit) in inverno …. Il decreto prevede anche la sospensione dell’illuminazione dei monumenti, il divieto per i negozi di accendere le proprie vetrine dopo le 22.00 e l’obbligo per i negozi di avere un display elettrico che mostri la temperatura interna ai passanti.

In risposta ai timori che il presidente russo Vladimir Putin possa tagliare le forniture di gas, l’Unione Europea ha deciso di ridurre il consumo di energia del 15%, innescando una vigilanza continentale su termostati e interruttori della luce.

L’Italia e la Grecia hanno imposto un tetto massimo di 27 gradi per l’aria condizionata negli edifici pubblici e a luglio Parigi ha introdotto multe (anche se di modesta entità, 150 euro) per le aziende che lasciano finestre e porte aperte mentre fanno funzionare l’aria condizionata.

I problemi energetici della regione sono aggravati da settimane di clima caldo e secco e dal basso livello dell’acqua in diversi fiumi europei, che sono fondamentali per il trasporto del combustibile alle centrali elettriche tedesche e per il raffreddamento dei reattori nucleari francesi.

Quando arriva l’inverno, l’energia per il riscaldamento diventa la priorità.

 Queste proposte hanno suscitato la reazione del vice-capogruppo parlamentare dei cristiano-democratici, Jens Spahn, secondo il quale le misure del governo minacciano i tedeschi con una triplice minaccia per questo inverno …. Vivere al freddo, fare la doccia al freddo, prendere freddo.

La Spagna è meno dipendente dalle forniture energetiche russe rispetto a molti altri Stati europei – gli operatori di rete hanno dichiarato che il Paese potrebbe sopravvivere a un’interruzione totale delle forniture di gas russo.

Madrid e altre città spagnole hanno affrontato quest’estate temperature molto elevate: Le massime hanno raggiunto i 43 gradi Celsius (110 gradi Fahrenheit) e più di 600 persone sono morte per motivi legati al caldo solo nelle prime due settimane di luglio. Ma l’umidità estiva generalmente bassa della Spagna rende le temperature interne più alte un po’ più sopportabili di quanto non lo siano altrove.

 Nel porto settentrionale di A Coruña, la città principale più fresca della Spagna, il punto di allerta è fissato a soli 26 gradi Celsius (78,8 gradi Fahrenheit), a testimonianza di un ambiente costruito più per proteggere dalla pioggia che dal caldo estremo. Ma nel sud di Córdoba – dove i residenti hanno a lungo gestito alcune delle temperature più alte d’Europa con strade strette, piccole finestre esterne e cortili ombreggiati – le morti in eccesso iniziano a salire solo quando il mercurio raggiunge i 40 gradi Celsius.

Le temperature estreme potrebbero contribuire a far rivivere un altro tradizionale adattamento al caldo spagnolo: la siesta.

* * * * * * *

«Across Europe, Gas-Strapped Cities Prepare to Power Down. Energy-saving limits on lighting and air-conditioner use have drawn heat in Spain, France and Germany.»

«Following arguments last week from a suitably tie-less Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, Spain published new rules Tuesday stipulating that no business will be allowed to cool its interior below 27 degrees Celsius (81 degrees Fahrenheit) or to heat it above 19 degrees Celsius (66 degrees Fahrenheit) in winter …. the decree also calls a halt to the illumination of monuments, bans stores from lighting up their windows after 10 p.m., and requires shops to have an electric display showing the temperature inside to passersby»

«In response to fears that Russian President Vladimir Putin will cut off gas supplies, the European Union has agreed to trim energy use by 15%, triggering a continent-wide watchfulness over thermostats and light switches»

«Italy and Greece also have 27-degree caps on air conditioning in public buildings, and in July, Paris introduced fines (albeit a modest 150 Euros) for businesses that leave windows and doors open while running their AC»

«The region’s energy woes are being compounded by weeks of hot, dry weather and low water levels in several European rivers, which are critical for shipping fuel to German power plants and for cooling French nuclear reactors»

«Once winter sets in, power for heating becomes the priority»

«Such proposals prompted pushback from the Christian Democrats’ deputy parliamentary leader, Jens Spahn, who said that the government measures threatened Germans with a triple threat this winter …. Live cold, shower cold, catch cold.»

«Spain is less dependent on Russian energy supplies than many other European states — network operators have stated that the country could survive a total shut-off of Russian gas supplies»

«Madrid and other Spanish cities have been facing punishingly high temperatures this summer: Highs have reached 43 degrees Celsius (110 degrees Fahrenheit) and more than 600 people died for heat-related reasons in the first two weeks of July alone. But Spain’s generally low summer humidity makes higher indoor temperatures somewhat more bearable than they might be elsewhere»

«In the northern port of A Coruña, Spain’s coolest major city, this alert point is set at just 26 degrees Celsius (78.8 degrees Fahrenheit), reflecting a built environment designed more to shield from rain than extreme heat. But in southern Córdoba — where residents have long managed some of Europe’s highest temperatures with narrow streets, small external windows and shaded courtyards — excess deaths only start climbing once the mercury hits 40 degrees Celsius»

«Extreme temperatures could help revive another traditional Spanish heat adaptation: the siesta»

* * * * * * *


Across Europe, Gas-Strapped Cities Prepare to Power Down

Energy-saving limits on lighting and air-conditioner use have drawn heat in Spain, France and Germany. 

Following arguments last week from a suitably tie-less Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, Spain published new rules Tuesday stipulating that no business will be allowed to cool its interior below 27 degrees Celsius (81 degrees Fahrenheit) or to heat it above 19 degrees Celsius (66 degrees Fahrenheit) in winter. In place until November 2023, the decree also calls a halt to the illumination of monuments, bans stores from lighting up their windows after 10 p.m., and requires shops to have an electric display showing the temperature inside to passersby.

Such curbs are not entirely new — public buildings in Spain, except hospitals, already follow a 27-degree cooling cap — but the extensive reach of this suite of power-saving measures reflects the seriousness of a looming threat: an energy crisis brought about by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

In response to fears that Russian President Vladimir Putin will cut off gas supplies, the European Union has agreed to trim energy use by 15%, triggering a continent-wide watchfulness over thermostats and light switches. In Berlin, for example, the city government has pledged to reduce its own energy consumption by 10%, and the city has already stopped illuminating its monuments by night, plunging sights such as the Brandenburg Gate and the Victory Column into non-customary darkness. Italy and Greece also have 27-degree caps on air conditioning in public buildings, and in July, Paris introduced fines (albeit a modest 150 Euros) for businesses that leave windows and doors open while running their AC.

The region’s energy woes are being compounded by weeks of hot, dry weather and low water levels in several European rivers, which are critical for shipping fuel to German power plants and for cooling French nuclear reactors.

Once winter sets in, power for heating becomes the priority. As Bloomberg’s Javier Blas has argued, Paris may face a high risk of cold-weather blackouts; energy-saving measures in France include a ban on heating café terraces. Berlin’s boroughs are contemplating reducing temperatures in public offices and schools during the winter, lowering the temperature of public swimming pools and rearranging the schedules of public workers to capitalize on daylight hours. Such proposals prompted pushback from the Christian Democrats’ deputy parliamentary leader, Jens Spahn, who said that the government measures threatened Germans with a triple threat this winter: “Live cold, shower cold, catch cold.”

Spain is less dependent on Russian energy supplies than many other European states — network operators have stated that the country could survive a total shut-off of Russian gas supplies. And while the EU-wide target for energy reduction is 15%, Spain is only being asked to cut back by 7%. Still, the energy-saving measures have also received some criticism from conservative Spanish lawmakers. Isabel Diaz Ayuso, president of the state of Madrid, said on Twitter that she would not follow the rules on illuminating buildings because it would generate insecurity, deter tourism and bring “darkness, poverty, sadness” — a vivid threat in a nocturnal culture where 10 p.m. is a standard dinner time.

It might surprise some North Americans, who enjoy comparatively crisp indoor temperatures in offices and public spaces, that it’s the lighting bans, not the AC caps, that are drawing more complaints. Madrid and other Spanish cities have been facing punishingly high temperatures this summer: Highs have reached 43 degrees Celsius (110 degrees Fahrenheit) and more than 600 people died for heat-related reasons in the first two weeks of July alone. But Spain’s generally low summer humidity makes higher indoor temperatures somewhat more bearable than they might be elsewhere, and traditional Spanish construction norms produce buildings better designed to keep heat out.

The difference that the built environment makes can be seen in Spain’s heat alert system, which issues public warnings when a city exceeds a temperature after which excess deaths are known to rise. In the northern port of A Coruña, Spain’s coolest major city, this alert point is set at just 26 degrees Celsius (78.8 degrees Fahrenheit), reflecting a built environment designed more to shield from rain than extreme heat. But in southern Córdoba — where residents have long managed some of Europe’s highest temperatures with narrow streets, small external windows and shaded courtyards — excess deaths only start climbing once the mercury hits 40 degrees Celsius. While some construction from the late 20th century onwards jettisoned the heat-placating solutions of the past, Spain’s cities have tools other than mechanical air cooling to keep interiors livable in summer.

Furthermore, air conditioners increase external temperatures — and thus cooling demands — contributing to the heat island effect that can make urban heat waves especially dangerous. After the death of José Antonio González, a 60-year-old street cleaner who died of heat stroke in July after collapsing while working in Madrid, Spain’s unions have been pushing for heat to be recognized in law as an occupational hazard. (It’s believed that Gonzalez may have kept working because he was on a monthly contract he could not risk losing.) Cleaning companies have since agreed to move afternoon street cleaning shifts to the evening, a policy already in action.

Extreme temperatures could help revive another traditional Spanish heat adaptation: the siesta. While many Spanish professionals still take a long afternoon break following lunch before returning to the office into the early evening, it has been more rare for blue-collar workers to have time to do the same. That could change — not just in Spain but in other countries where siestas are non-traditional. In Germany, for example, unions are currently pressing for summer siesta rights for construction workers. As climate change pushes extreme heat northward, Spain’s time-tested tool for managing its dangers could well be following.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Materie Prime, Russia, Unione Europea

Russia, Cina ed Unione Europea. Il problema degli energetici.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-08-04.

Gufo_019__

La Russia sta incrementando le spedizioni di gas naturale verso la Cina, mentre frena i flussi verso l’Europa, il che potrebbe offrire un po’ di tregua dall’impennata dei costi energetici

Il prezzo del gas in Europa è salito dopo che la Russia ha tagliato le forniture …. Gazprom sta trasportando volumi record verso la Cina e questo sta aiutando a bilanciare il mercato …. I crescenti flussi di gas dalla Russia alla Cina sono destinati a sostituire il gas a prezzi più elevati sul mercato cinese.

I maggiori giacimenti della Siberia, che alimentano l’Europa, saranno infine collegati alla Cina, dando alla Russia uno sbocco alternativo per le sue vaste risorse.

I prezzi europei sono preoccupati per la rapidità con cui la Cina uscirà dalla crisi.

Con la ripresa dell’attività economica, la Cina potrebbe iniziare a competere con l’Europa per i carichi di gas naturale liquefatto ….. Se la Russia interrompesse i flussi di gas verso l’Europa, i prezzi salirebbero di cinque volte rispetto al livello attuale.

Il rischio di una recessione globale ridurrà il consumo di gas fino al 16% nell’Unione Europea il prossimo anno …. Il contesto di prezzi elevati non è sostenibile a lungo termine se l’inverno sarà peggiore del passato.

* * * * * * *

«Russia is boosting natural gas shipments to China as it curbs flows to Europe, which may offer some respite from the surge in energy costs»

«The price of gas in Europe went up after Russia cut supplies …. Gazprom is shipping record volumes to China and that this is helping to balance the market …. Increasing flows of gas from Russia to China are set to replace higher priced gas in the Chinese market»

«Siberia’s biggest fields, which feed Europe, will eventually be connected to China, giving Russia an alternative outlet for its vast resources»

«Europe’s prices are worried about how quickly China comes out of covids»

«as Chinese economic activity recovers, it may start to compete with Europe for Liquefied Natural Gas cargo …. If Russia stopped gas flows to Europe, prices would go up five times the current level»

«The risk of a global recession will reduce gas consumption by as much as 16% in the European Union next year …. The high price environment is not sustainable in the long term if the winter is worse than in the past»

* * * * * * *


Russian Gas Pivot Toward China Will Ease Europe’s Energy Crunch

Russia is boosting natural gas shipments to China as it curbs flows to Europe, which may offer some respite from the surge in energy costs.

The price of gas in Europe went up after Russia cut supplies. Ogan Kose, a managing director at Accenture, said that Gazprom is shipping record volumes to China and that this is helping to balance the market.

Kose said in an interview this week that Russian gas being supplied to China will make a difference. As a result of that, China will no longer want to import Liquefied Natural Gas.

European nations want to cut their dependence on Russian gas and are looking for more supplies of Liquefied Natural Gas. Producers are redirecting capacity toward Europe because the region is expected to remain a premium market.

Increasing flows of gas from Russia to China are set to replace higher priced gas in the Chinese market.

Russia’s plans to build new links to China have been accelerated because of the war. Siberia’s biggest fields, which feed Europe, will eventually be connected to China, giving Russia an alternative outlet for its vast resources.

Russian gas will be sold in Asia. There will always be someone else buying that gas.

                         China imports gas and oil.

The China Gas Quarterly was published by the National Development and Reform Commission.

China, which also imports gas via Central Asia, is buying more gas and less of it.

China has been absent from spot purchases of liquified natural gas so far this year and its appetite may remain low through September due to high prices and uncertainty about the economy.

Europe’s prices are worried about how quickly China comes out of covids. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a note last week that as Chinese economic activity recovers, it may start to compete with Europe for Liquefied Natural Gas cargo.

If Russia stopped gas flows to Europe, prices would go up five times the current level. Kose said that the average price in 2023 would be less than this year.

                         Recession risk

The risk of a global recession will reduce gas consumption by as much as 16% in the European Union next year. The European Union wants a 15% reduction in gas use through the winter, while the French utility says that clients are cutting gas use.

The combination of demand destruction in Europe and Asia and Russian gas finding new outlets will bring gas prices down. The high price environment is not sustainable in the long term if the winter is worse than in the past.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Devoluzione socialismo, Diplomazia, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Unione Europea

Croazia. Cina inaugura il ponte Pelješac. La Cina c’è ed agisce, proprio qui in Europa.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-08-01.

Croazia Pelješac Bridge 001 

«The Pelješac Bridge is a cable-stayed bridge in Dubrovnik-Neretva County, Croatia. The purpose of the bridge is to provide a fixed link from the southeastern Croatian semi-exclave to the rest of the country while bypassing Bosnia and Herzegovina’s short coastal strip at Neum. The bridge spans the sea channel between Komarna on the northern mainland and the peninsula of Pelješac, thereby passing entirely through Croatian territory and avoiding any border crossings with Bosnia and Herzegovina at Neum.

Construction started on 30 July 2018, and the bridge was connected on 28 July 2021. The bridge and its access roads opened for traffic on 26 July 2022.» [Fonte]

Croazia Pelješac Bridge 002

* * * * * * *

Quando l’ex Jugoslavia si è sciolta e la Croazia è diventata indipendente nel 1991, i nuovi confini hanno fatto sì che due parti della costa croata fossero divise da un tratto di costa bosniaca lungo 9 km, noto come corridoio di Neum.

Salutato come uno dei momenti più importanti della storia croata, è stato inaugurato un ponte a lungo atteso che collega le zone costiere meridionali al resto del Paese.

Finora i croati dovevano attraversare il territorio della Bosnia-Erzegovina. Il ponte di Peljesac, lungo 2.4 km, è stato costruito dalla Cina.

L’UE ha accettato di finanziare l’85% del ponte, per un importo di 357 milioni di euro (300 milioni di sterline), utilizzando i fondi di coesione per quello che, a suo dire, avrebbe migliorato significativamente la vita quotidiana dei croati.

Inizialmente la Bosnia si era lamentata che il ponte avrebbe compromesso il suo accesso al mare, finché la Croazia non ha accettato di aumentare l’altezza del ponte a 55 metri.

La società statale cinese che si è aggiudicata l’appalto croato per il ponte – la China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC) – ha presentato un’offerta molto inferiore a quella dei suoi rivali europei.

* * * * * * *

Questo fatto si presta a numerose considerazione.

In primo luogo, la Cina è diventata da tempo un attore determinato nello scenario europeo. Occupa le posizioni abbandonate o sguarnite da parte del blocco europeo. Contratta su base paritaria, nel pieno rispetto della sovranità altrui. Così facendo si sta conquistando sempre più numerosi amici.

In secondo luogo, si noti come la offerta fatta dalla The China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC)  sia stata di gran lunga inferiore alle offerte fatte da parte di imprese europee. È inutile girare attorno a questo problema: le imprese europee sono fuori mercato.

In terzo luogo, dovrebbe essere evidente la latitanza del Consiglio Europeo. È davvero imbarazzante che sia la Cina a risolvere i problemi della Europa.

* * * * * * *

«When the former Yugoslavia broke up and Croatia became independent in 1991, the new borders meant that two parts of the Croatian coastline were split by a 9km-long section of Bosnian coastline known as the Neum corridor»

«Hailed as one of the biggest moments in Croatian history, a long-awaited bridge has opened that links southern coastal areas to the rest of the country»

«Until now, Croatians had to cross land belonging to Bosnia and Herzegovina …. The 2.4km (1.5-mile) Peljesac bridge was built by China»

«The EU agreed to fund 85% of the bridge, to the tune of €357m (£300m), using cohesion funds for what it said would improve significantly the everyday lives of Croatians»

«Bosnia initially complained the bridge would affect its access to the sea, until Croatia agreed to increase the bridge’s height to 55m (181ft)»

«The Chinese state-owned company that won the Croatian contract for the bridge – The China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC) – bid far less than its European rivals»

* * * * * * *


Fanfare as Croatia’s Chinese-built bridge finally opens.

Hailed as one of the biggest moments in Croatian history, a long-awaited bridge has opened that links southern coastal areas to the rest of the country.

Until now, Croatians had to cross land belonging to Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The 2.4km (1.5-mile) Peljesac bridge was built by China but largely funded by the European Union.

Celebrations took place throughout the day, with 250 runners crossing the bridge and small boats with Croatian flags sailing beneath the six pylons.

Residents also took the opportunity to walk along the initial stretch of the bridge before the day culminated in a glittering firework display.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang delivered a video message at the ceremony. His Croatian counterpart Andrej Plenkovic declared “tonight, we are uniting Croatia!” and described the bridge as a necessity, not a luxury.

During the opening ceremony, a Croatian-made electric hypercar called the Rimac Nevera made the first official crossing.

The EU agreed to fund 85% of the bridge, to the tune of €357m (£300m), using cohesion funds for what it said would improve significantly the everyday lives of Croatians. It also funded access roads, tunnels and other infrastructure.

When the former Yugoslavia broke up and Croatia became independent in 1991, the new borders meant that two parts of the Croatian coastline were split by a 9km-long section of Bosnian coastline known as the Neum corridor.

Bosnia’s right to coastal access dates back to 1699, when Neum was ceded by Dubrovnik – in modern-day Croatia – to what was then the Ottoman Empire.

As Bosnia is not in the EU and Croatia is, anyone trying to go north from the medieval city of Dubrovnik on the southernmost Adriatic coast or cross from the Peljesac peninsula to the mainland had to go through two border checks. Now anyone can drive straight along Croatia’s Adriatic coast via the new bridge.

The mayor of Neum, Dragan Jurkovic, told Bosnian TV that the new bridge would reduce traffic along the coast during the summer months and that he could only see benefits in the new bridge. However, some restaurateurs and traders were concerned that the decline would be bad for the area’s economy.

Tourists, many of them Czechs, Poles and Germans, have become regular visitors to Neum, where prices are considered far cheaper than in Dubrovnik but that is now likely to change.

The bridge has not been without controversy.

Bosnia initially complained the bridge would affect its access to the sea, until Croatia agreed to increase the bridge’s height to 55m (181ft).

The Chinese state-owned company that won the Croatian contract for the bridge – The China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC) – bid far less than its European rivals. That prompted an Austrian company to file a complaint, alleging that CRBC was “price-dumping” and receiving Chinese state aid.

China’s Xinhua state news agency said the bridge opening was expected to further deepen mutual trust and expand co-operation between Croatia and Beijing.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Unione Europea. Adesso c’è il rischio concreto che l’Italia sia sbattuta fuori dalla eurozona. A pedate nei denti.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-07-27.

Lavron e Putin che ridono 001

«Credit-default swaps suggest investors are starting to worry about a future administration pulling or crashing the nation out of the euro»

«I credit-default swap suggeriscono che gli investitori stanno iniziando a preoccuparsi che una futura amministrazione possa far uscire o far crollare la nazione dall’euro»

Con il suo debito pubblico irredimibile l’Italia è diventata un peso morto per la Unione. La Ecb non può più esserle ancora di salvezza. È solo questione di tempo.

* * * * * * *

I trader coprono il rischio che l’Italia lasci l’euro dopo le dimissioni di Draghi.

Il crollo del governo italiano sta risvegliando una minaccia dormiente nei mercati obbligazionari europei.

I credit-default swap suggeriscono che gli investitori stanno iniziando a preoccuparsi del fatto che una futura amministrazione possa far uscire o far crollare la nazione dall’euro.

La differenza nei contratti CDS è dovuta al fatto che quelli stipulati dopo la revisione delle regole del 2014, sulla scia della crisi del debito dell’area dell’euro, sono stati concepiti per offrire una maggiore protezione contro la ridenominazione.

La cosiddetta base ISDA negli swap a cinque anni si è allargata fino a 14 punti base.

* * * * * * *

«Traders are hedging risk Italy leaves euro after Draghi resigns»

«The collapse of Italy’s government is awakening a dormant threat in European bond markets»

«Credit-default swaps suggest investors are starting to worry about a future administration pulling or crashing the nation out of the euro»

«The difference in the CDS contracts is because those written after a 2014 overhaul of rules in the wake of the euro-area debt crisis were designed to offer greater protection against redenomination»

«This so-called ISDA basis in five-year swaps widened as much as 14 basis»

* * * * * * *


Traders Are Hedging Risk Italy Leaves Euro After Draghi Resigns.

The collapse of Italy’s government is awakening a dormant threat in European bond markets.

Credit-default swaps suggest investors are starting to worry about a future administration pulling or crashing the nation out of the euro. They are buying newer swaps, which offer more protection against such an event, driving up their premium to older swaps to the highest since 2018 on Thursday.

That came after Italian bonds slid in the wake of Prime Minister Mario Draghi resigning, which opens the door to snap elections that could bring in a more euroskeptic or less fiscally responsible government. The debt sold off further after the European Central Bank hiked borrowing costs more than expected, with a new tool to stop unwarranted yield spikes failing to stop the rout.

The difference in the CDS contracts is because those written after a 2014 overhaul of rules in the wake of the euro-area debt crisis were designed to offer greater protection against redenomination. This so-called ISDA basis in five-year swaps widened as much as 14 basis.

It reflects Italy’s “unsteady political backdrop alongside the European Central Bank’s imminent stimulus withdrawal,” said Richard McGuire, head of rates strategy at Rabobank. “The fact the ISDA basis is wider than at any time since 2018 highlights the latent spread widening pressures that Italy is facing.”

Seasoned traders are familiar with hedging against euro-zone break-up risks. Political turmoil has seen the ISDA basis in Italy flare up on several occasions, while French swaps also diverged in the run-up to the nation’s 2017 presidential election. The name of the spread refers to the International Swaps & Derivatives Association, which organized the contract overhaul.

Pubblicato in: Armamenti, Russia, Unione Europea

Lituania. Dopo il discorso di Mr Lavrov rimuove in fretta e furia le sanzioni alla Russia.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-07-24.

Kalinigrad Lithuania Suwalki Gap 001

Lo abbiamo sempre detto che con le buone maniere si ottiene tutto.

Mr Lavrov, la cui timida mitezza virginale è proverbiale, ha solo ricordato come la Russia abbia bombe atomiche a sufficienza anche per la Lituania.

«Lithuania has lifted a ban on the rail transport of sanctioned goods in and out of the Russian area of Kaliningrad»

Che figura di sterco!! Femminielli e femminielle debosciati dai vizi innominabili e dall’uso smodato delle droghe pesanti. Senza il minimo sentimento di umana dignità. Ma una cosa è marciare al gay pride, ed una ben diversa contro la Russia, che non inizia le guerre ma le termina. E non ci si faccia illusioni, ma proprio nessuna. La Russia si ricorderà quanto è successo, ed a tempo opportuno i lituani sfileranno per la Piazza Rossa per essere poi caricati sui treni merci destinati alla Siberia.

* * * * * * *

«Following the certification of the election results, Šimonytė was proposed as the prime ministerial candidate by a coalition consisting of the Homeland Union, Liberal Movement and Freedom Party; she took office on 11 December, along with the appointment of her cabinet ….

During the meeting with Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, Šimonytė emphasized that Lithuania seeks to further increase pressure on the Belarussian regime. Lithuania also supports the expansion of EU sanctions. ….

Šimonytė has stated that she did not oppose the introduction of same-sex civil unions to Lithuania, which attracted the support of LGBT rights activists. Additionally, Šimonytė stated that while she would never have an abortion herself, she would not condemn women who choose to do so.

She is unmarried and has no children ….» [Fonte]

* * * * * * *

Assessing the likelihood of the collapse of Šimonytė’s Government

«With the opposition vociferously speculating that the current ruling coalition, which is dogged by scandals over foreign policy, will only last until the autumn and then collapse in the face of unfavourable economic, pandemic and geopolitical circumstances ….

The European Commission’s (EC) clarification on the application of sanctions to the Kaliningrad transit has given a platform not only to the opposition but also to some members of the Liberal Movement, the coalition partners who rebelled against the Government’s decision to accept the new guidelines ….

However, as the political scientist notes, the country’s forthcoming triple elections – for municipal councils and mayors (2023) and for the presidency and the Seimas (2024) – could be an even more important factor in the composition of the ruling majority ….

a fracturing of the ruling majority is currently a more likely scenario than a change of Government.

The scandal over the foreign policy of the ruling party is not the only one that has accompanied the ruling party this term – the turmoil over the transit of Belaruskalij fertilisers even shook the foundations of the Government, and Prime Minister Šimonytė herself has also mentioned threats to withdraw from the coalition partners. ….

However, according to political analyst G.Burbulytė-Tsiskarishvili, a similar scenario should not happen in the case of the Kaliningrad transit, despite the fact that some members of the Liberal Movement rebelled against the Government’s decision to accept the European Commission’s interpretation.»

* * * * * * *

Il governo di Ingrida Šimonytė sta perdendo pezzi da ogni parte, ed Ingrida Šimonytė sta dando prova di una rara imperizia.

Chi parla ed agisce a vanvera è sempre costretto dalla realtà a rimangiarsi tutto quello che aveva fatto e detto.

Se Ingrida Šimonytė avesse avuto una faccia, con questa retromarcia la avrebbe persa del tutto.

Constatiamo quanto abbia ragione il Presidente Putin quando afferma che le femmine, vere o sedicenti tali, stanno più che bene nelle amministrazioni altrui.

Si noti il silenzio della Unione Europea, di Ursula von der Leyen, e del consesso dei femminielli di Bruxelles.

Ma su tutto troneggia il mutismo di Joe Biden. Questo è quanto vale l’enclave liberal occidentale.

* * * * * * *

La Russia ha avvertito la Lituania di “gravi” conseguenze dopo aver vietato il trasferimento ferroviario di alcune merci verso il territorio russo di Kaliningrad.

La Lituania afferma che sta solo seguendo le sanzioni dell’UE imposte per l’invasione dell’Ucraina da parte di Mosca.

Il segretario del Consiglio di sicurezza russo ha avvertito che saranno prese misure appropriate nel prossimo futuro.

La Lituania ha revocato il divieto di trasporto ferroviario di merci soggette a sanzioni in entrata e in uscita dall’area russa di Kaliningrad.

Kaliningrad si trova sul Mar Baltico e utilizza un collegamento ferroviario con la Russia attraverso la Lituania per passeggeri e merci.

La Russia si è infuriata quando il mese scorso la Lituania ha vietato il transito di acciaio e altri metalli ferrosi in base alle sanzioni dell’UE e ha minacciato di reagire.

Ma ora le Ferrovie lituane hanno dichiarato che riprenderanno a trasportare merci verso l’enclave.

* * * * * * *

«Russia has warned Lithuania of “serious” consequences after it banned the rail transfer of some goods to the Russian territory of Kaliningrad»

«Lithuania says it is only following the EU sanctions imposed over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine»

«The secretary of Russia’s Security Council warned that appropriate measures would be taken in the near future»

«Lithuania has lifted a ban on the rail transport of sanctioned goods in and out of the Russian area of Kaliningrad»

«Kaliningrad is on the Baltic Sea and uses a rail link to Russia via Lithuania for passengers and freight»

«Russia was enraged when Lithuania banned the transit of steel and other ferrous metals under EU sanctions last month, and threatened to respond»

«But now Lithuanian Railways says it will resume transporting goods to the enclave»

* * * * * * *


Kaliningrad: Russia warns Lithuania of consequences over rail transit sanctions

Russia has warned Lithuania of “serious” consequences after it banned the rail transfer of some goods to the Russian territory of Kaliningrad.

Russia “will certainly respond to such hostile actions,” senior security official Nikolai Patrushev said.

Lithuania says it is only following the EU sanctions imposed over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

Kaliningrad – a strategic region where Russia’s Baltic Fleet is headquartered – has no border with mainland Russia.

The western territory was annexed from Germany after World War Two in 1945 and is bordered by EU and Nato members Lithuania and Poland.

The region – where an estimated one million people live – relies heavily on imports of raw materials and spare parts from Russia and the EU.

Regional governor Anton Alikhanov said the ban would cover around 50% of the items that Kaliningrad imports.

During a visit on Tuesday to Kaliningrad, Mr Patrushev said the blockade by Lithuania was instigated by the West “in violation of… international law”.

The secretary of Russia’s Security Council warned that “appropriate measures” would be taken “in the near future”.

“Their consequences will have a serious negative impact on the population of Lithuania,” he added, without giving any further details.

Earlier on Tuesday, the EU ambassador was summoned to the Russian foreign ministry over the blockade.

Last week, the Lithuanian authorities announced they would ban goods subject to EU sanctions from passing through their territory to Kaliningrad.

Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said: “It’s not Lithuania doing anything: it’s European sanctions that started working from 17 June… It was done with consultation from the European Commission and under European Commission guidelines.”

The EU has echoed Lithuania’s statement, saying that the country is just implementing sanctions imposed by the EU as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The sanctions list includes coal, metals, construction materials and advanced technology.

As a member of the Nato military alliance, Lithuania is protected by collective defence treaties.

US state department spokesman Ned Price said the US was standing by Lithuania, adding that the country’s commitment to Nato’s Article 5 – which views an attack on one member state as an attack on all – was “iron clad”.

* * * * * * *


Kaliningrad row: Lithuania resumes transporting goods to Russian exclave

Lithuania has lifted a ban on the rail transport of sanctioned goods in and out of the Russian area of Kaliningrad.

Kaliningrad is on the Baltic Sea and uses a rail link to Russia via Lithuania for passengers and freight.

Russia was enraged when Lithuania banned the transit of steel and other ferrous metals under EU sanctions last month, and threatened to respond.

But now Lithuanian Railways says it will resume transporting goods to the exclave.

The European Union last week said the transit ban only affected road, not rail, transit, and Lithuania should therefore allow Russia to ship concrete, wood and alcohol across EU territory to Kaliningrad.

Russia’s Tass news agency cited a Kaliningrad government official as saying 60 wagons of cement would soon be shipped into the territory

Russia annexed Kaliningrad after World War Two in 1945 and roughly one million people live there.

For supplies, Kaliningrad has been heavily reliant on transit routes through Lithuania. But last month Lithuania began implementing EU sanctions on certain Russian goods – including construction materials – in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It would not allow the goods to transit through Lithuanian territory to Kaliningrad.

This angered Moscow, and Russian security council chief Nikolai Patrushev threatened a “serious negative impact on the population of Lithuania”.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti, Unione Europea

Guerra in Ukraina. Sanziona la fine dell’egemonia occidentale e l’inizio dell’era cinese.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-07-23.

Cina 017

G20 di Bali. I ministri di Cina, India, Brasile, Turchia, Argentina e Indonesia hanno ascoltato Mr Lavrov con deferenza.

Cina. MI5 e US security vedono nella Cina la più grande sfida all’occidente. Mortale.

Iran. Ha chiesto di aderire al Gruppo Brics, Russia, Cina, India, Brasile, Sud Africa.

Cina. Sotto Biden ha ampliato il proprio vantaggio commerciale in gran parte dell’America Latina.

Hong Kong. Mr Xi afferma che la norma un paese e due sistemi c’è per rimanere.

Cina. Ha varato la Fujian, moderna portaerei di progetto e tecnologie tutte cinesi.

Scacchiere del Pacifico. Cina ed Australia si confrontano per aumentare la loro influenza politica.

Conflitto russo-ukraino visto da quanti si oppongono all’occidente liberal. Voci mai udite.

* * * * * * *


La guerra in Ucraina dimostra che il dominio dell’Occidente sta per finire, mentre la Cina sale al rango di superpotenza in collaborazione con la Russia, in uno dei punti di inflessione più significativi degli ultimi secoli.

Il mondo si trova in un punto di svolta storico paragonabile alla fine della Seconda guerra mondiale od al crollo dell’Unione Sovietica: ma questa volta l’Occidente non è chiaramente in vantaggio.

Stiamo arrivando alla fine del dominio politico ed economico dell’Occidente …. Il mondo sarà almeno bipolare e forse multipolare. Il più grande cambiamento geopolitico di questo secolo verrà dalla Cina e non dalla Russia.

L’invasione russa dell’Ucraina ha provocato migliaia di morti e ha scatenato la più grave crisi nelle relazioni tra Russia e Occidente dalla crisi dei missili di Cuba del 1962, quando molti temevano che il mondo fosse sull’orlo di una guerra nucleare.

Il presidente Vladimir Putin afferma che l’Occidente ha dichiarato guerra economica cercando di isolare l’economia russa con le sanzioni e il Cremlino dice che la Russia si rivolgerà a potenze come la Cina e l’India.

L’Occidente non può contare sul fatto che la Cina si comporti nel modo che noi considereremmo razionale …. Il presidente cinese Xi Jinping ha continuato a sostenere Putin e ha criticato l’abuso delle sanzioni da parte dell’Occidente …. Putin ha creato quella che definisce una partnership strategica con la Cina …. I suoi alleati saranno probabilmente la Russia e l’Iran.

La sua economia dovrebbe superare quella degli Stati Uniti entro un decennio ed è leader in alcune tecnologie del XXI secolo come l’intelligenza artificiale, la medicina rigenerativa e i polimeri conduttivi …. Il posto della Cina come superpotenza è naturale e giustificato. Non è l’Unione Sovietica …. L’Occidente non dovrebbe permettere alla Cina di superare militarmente.

* * * * * * *

«The Ukraine war shows that the West’s dominance is coming to an end as China rises to superpower status in partnership with Russia at one of the most significant inflection points in centuries»

«The world was at a turning point in history comparable with the end of World War Two or the collapse of the Soviet Union: but this time the West is clearly not in the ascendant»

«We are coming to the end of Western political and economic dominance …. The world is going to be at least bi-polar and possibly multi-polar, The biggest geo-political change of this century will come from China not Russia»

«Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has killed thousands and triggered the most serious crisis in relations between Russia and the West since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, when many people feared the world was on the brink of nuclear war»

«President Vladimir Putin says the West has declared economic war by trying to isolate Russia’s economy with sanctions and the Kremlin says Russia will turn to powers such as China and India»

«West could not rely on China to behave in the way we would consider rational …. Chinese President Xi Jinping has continued supporting Putin and criticised sanctions abuse by the West …. Putin has forged what he calls a strategic partnership with China …. Its allies are likely to be Russia and Iran»

«Its economy is forecast to overtake the United States within a decade and it leads in some 21st century technologies such as artificial intelligence, regenerative medicine and conductive polymers …. China’s place as a superpower is natural and justified. It is not the Soviet Union …. The West should not let China overtake militarily»

* * * * * * *


Ukraine war shows West’s dominance is ending as China rises, Blair says

London, July 17 (Reuters) – The Ukraine war shows that the West’s dominance is coming to an end as China rises to superpower status in partnership with Russia at one of the most significant inflection points in centuries, former British Prime Minister Tony Blair said.

The world, Blair said, was at a turning point in history comparable with the end of World War Two or the collapse of the Soviet Union: but this time the West is clearly not in the ascendant.

“We are coming to the end of Western political and economic dominance,” Blair said in a lecture entitled “After Ukraine, What Lessons Now for Western Leadership?” according to a text of the speech to a forum supporting the alliance between the United States and Europe at Ditchley Park west of London.

“The world is going to be at least bi-polar and possibly multi-polar,” Blair said. “The biggest geo-political change of this century will come from China not Russia.”

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has killed thousands and triggered the most serious crisis in relations between Russia and the West since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, when many people feared the world was on the brink of nuclear war.

President Vladimir Putin says the West has declared economic war by trying to isolate Russia’s economy with sanctions and the Kremlin says Russia will turn to powers such as China and India.

The war in Ukraine, Blair said, had clarified that the West could not rely on China “to behave in the way we would consider rational”.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has continued supporting Putin and criticised sanctions “abuse” by the West. Putin has forged what he calls a “strategic partnership” with China.

China in 1979 had an economy that was smaller than Italy’s, but after opening to foreign investment and introducing market reforms it has become the world’s second-largest economy.

Its economy is forecast to overtake the United States within a decade and it leads in some 21st century technologies such as artificial intelligence, regenerative medicine and conductive polymers.

“China’s place as a superpower is natural and justified. It is not the Soviet Union,” said Blair, who was prime minister from 1997 to 2007. Its allies are likely to be Russia and Iran.

The West should not let China overtake militarily, he said.

“We should increase defence spending and maintain military superiority,” Blair said. The United States and its allies “should be superior enough to cater for any eventuality or type of conflict and in all areas.”

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime, Russia, Unione Europea

Mercati internazionali europei. Pianificano scenari apocalittici se la Russia chiude il gas.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-07-17.

gatto_001__

«We stress that these projections should be seen as rough approximations and by no means as a worse-case scenario»

«Sottolineiamo che queste proiezioni devono essere considerate come approssimazioni approssimative e in nessun modo come uno scenario peggiore.»

A nostro sommesso avviso, quanto descritto non è per nulla apocalittico, ma gronda nvece ottimismo da ogni poro.

* * * * * * *

I mercati pianificano scenari apocalittici se la Russia chiude il gas. Gli strateghi hanno cercato di dare i numeri a uno scenario che sarebbe impensabile in tempi normali.

Azioni europee in picchiata del 20%. Gli spread del credito Junk si sono allargati oltre i livelli della crisi del 2020. L’euro affonda. Le previsioni sono inquietanti per i mercati finanziari se la Russia interrompe tutte le forniture di gas all’Europa.

La grande incognita è il modo in cui lo shock che inizierà in Germania, Polonia e altri Paesi dell’Europa centrale si riverbererà sul resto dell’Europa e del mondo.

Ridurrebbe gli utili aziendali di oltre il 15%. Il crollo dei mercati supererebbe il 20% in Europa e l’euro crollerebbe. La corsa agli asset sicuri porterebbe i rendimenti dei bund tedeschi di riferimento a zero.

Sottolineiamo che queste proiezioni devono essere considerate come approssimazioni molto approssimative e in nessun modo come uno scenario peggiore.

L’euro è ai minimi da due decenni e sull’orlo della parità con il dollaro. I titoli tedeschi hanno perso l’11% da giugno. Il gigante tedesco del gas Uniper è la più grande vittima aziendale, in quanto cerca un salvataggio da parte del governo.

L’aumento dei prezzi dell’energia sta danneggiando l’economia europea, facendo scendere l’euro. L’altra preoccupazione è che le banche centrali non possano fare molto per aiutare l’economia con un’inflazione già ai massimi da dieci anni.

* * * * * * *

«Markets plan doomsday scenarios if Russia turns off the gas»

«Strategists have tried to put numbers on a scenario that would be unthinkable in normal times»

«European stocks plunging 20%. Junk credit spreads widening past 2020 crisis levels. The euro sinking. The predictions are ominous for financial markets if Russia cuts off all the gas supply to Europe»

«The big unknown is how the shock that starts in Germany, Poland, and other central European countries will reverberate throughout the rest of Europe and the world»

«It would reduce corporate earnings by more than 15%. The market selloff would exceed 20% in Europe and the euro would drop. The rush for safe assets would drive benchmark German bund yields to zero»

«We stress that these projections should be seen as rough approximations and by no means as a worse-case scenario»

«The euro is at a two-decade low and on the brink of dollar parity. German stocks have lost 11% since June. German gas giant Uniper is the biggest corporate casualty, as it seeks a government bailout»

«Higher energy prices are hurting Europe’s economy, driving the euro lower»

«The other worry is that central banks won’t be able to do much to help the economy with inflation already running at decade-highs»

* * * * * * *


Markets Plan Doomsday Scenarios If Russia Turns Off the Gas

Strategists have tried to put numbers on a scenario that would be unthinkable in normal times.

European stocks plunging 20%. Junk credit spreads widening past 2020 crisis levels. The euro sinking. 

The predictions are ominous for financial markets if Russia cuts off all the gas supply to Europe.

Shipments are currently running at reduced levels with the main pipeline shut for a 10-day maintenance, and fears are building over whether Moscow will turn the tap back on. Many investors are asking ‘how bad could this get?’

To that question, strategists have tried to put numbers on a scenario that would be unthinkable in normal times. There are so many variables, such as the length of any shutdown, the extent of supply cuts, and how far countries would go to ration energy, that anyone’s prediction is a guess at best. 

“The big unknown is how the shock that starts in Germany, Poland, and other central European countries will reverberate throughout the rest of Europe and the world,” said Joachim Klement, head of strategy at Liberum Capital. 

In an analysis this week, UBS economists laid out a detailed vision of what they see happening if Russia halts gas deliveries to Europe. It would reduce corporate earnings by more than 15%. The market selloff would exceed 20% in Europe and the euro would drop. The rush for safe assets would drive benchmark German bund yields to zero, they wrote.

“We stress that these projections should be seen as rough approximations and by no means as a worse-case scenario,” wrote Arend Kapteyn, chief economist at UBS. “We could easily conceive economic disruptions that lead to more negative growth outcomes.”

Markets are already pricing in some of the damage. The euro is at a two-decade low and on the brink of dollar parity. German stocks have lost 11% since June. German gas giant Uniper is the biggest corporate casualty, as it seeks a government bailout.

To be sure, many investors say there’s reason to believe Russia will turn gas supply back on when maintenance on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline ends on July 21. But, as UBS points out, if European countries start voluntary gas rationing to fill up on storage, the hit to economic growth will be severe.

                         ‘Vicious circle’

“Europe is currently being caught in a vicious circle,” said Charles-Henry Monchau, chief investment officer at Banque Syz. Higher energy prices are hurting Europe’s economy, driving the euro lower. In turn, the weaker euro makes energy imports even more expensive, he said.

The other worry is that central banks won’t be able to do much to help the economy with inflation already running at decade-highs, said Prashant Agarwal at Pictet Asset Management.

“I am not sure central bank tools work in this scenario,” he said. “In the past, they had leeway to address the situation because inflation was low.” 

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime, Senza categoria, Unione Europea

Gas Naturale. La crisi in Europa è peggiore di quanto possa sembrare.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-07-16.

La crisi del gas naturale in Europa è peggiore di quanto sembri.

I costi dei combustibili puri in Europa sono ancora ben al di sotto del massimo storico stabilito a marzo. Tuttavia, se si scava un po’ più a fondo, si nota che di solito segnalano un’interruzione più prolungata di quanto i mercati avessero previsto all’indomani dell’invasione dell’Ucraina da parte di Vladimir Putin.

Mentre allora il mercato dei carburanti prezzava una catastrofe di breve durata, che sarebbe durata forse qualche mese, ora segnala un rischio eccessivo per l’inverno successivo, fino al 2023 e, sempre di più, fino al 2024.

A marzo, un produttore tedesco poteva bloccare i costi del carburante per tutto il 2023 a circa 80 euro per megawattora; ora deve pagare 145 euro per coprire la stessa minaccia.

La scorsa settimana, il contratto olandese TTF, un benchmark europeo a pronti, è salito a circa 175 euro.

Il 5 marzo – quando il costo del carburante a pronti è salito a circa 185 euro – il contratto per la fornitura a dicembre 2022 è salito solo a circa 155 euro; la settimana scorsa, quando il valore a pronti era appena inferiore, il contratto di dicembre è stato scambiato a quasi 195 euro.

Il gasdotto Nord Stream 1, collegamento cruciale tra la Russia e l’Unione Europea, è sottoposto a manutenzione annuale dall’11 al 21 luglio.

Tatticamente, è più probabile che Mosca mantenga il trasferimento di una parte del carburante, mantenendo la scelta di tagliare o rallentare i flussi in qualsiasi momento quando lo desidera.

C’è un’ulteriore minaccia in avanti: A un certo punto, Mosca chiuderà completamente il rubinetto, molto probabilmente prima dell’inverno, per cercare di mettere in ginocchio il sistema finanziario tedesco. È una conseguenza che il mercato non ha ancora valutato.

* * * * * * *

«Europe’s natural-gas crisis is worse than it looks»

«European pure fuel costs are nonetheless properly beneath the all-time excessive set in March. Dig a bit deeper, nonetheless, they usually are signaling a extra protracted disruption than markets anticipated within the quick aftermath of  Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine»

«While the fuel market then priced in a short-lived disaster, lasting maybe a few months, it’s now flashing excessive hazard for subsequent winter, by way of 2023 and, more and more, into 2024»

«Back in March, a German producer may lock in fuel costs for all of 2023 at about 80 euros per megawatt hour; now, it has to pay a document excessive 145 euros to hedge the identical worth threat»

«Last week, the intently watched Dutch TTF contract, a European spot benchmark, rose to about 175 euros»

«On March 5 — when spot fuel costs surged to about 185 euros — the contract for supply in December 2022 rose solely to about 155 euros; final week, when the spot worth was barely decrease, the December contract traded at almost 195 euros»

«The Nord Stream 1 pipeline, crucial fuel hyperlink between Russia and the European Union, undergoes annual upkeep from July 11 to July 21»

«Tactically, Moscow is more likely to hold some fuel transferring, retaining the choice of chopping or slowing flows at any time when it chooses»

«There’s additional threat forward: At some level, Moscow will fully flip off the faucet, most likely simply earlier than the winter, to attempt to deliver the German financial system to its knees. That’s an consequence the market hasn’t priced but»

* * * * * * *


Europe’s Natural-Gas Crisis Is Worse Than It Looks

European pure fuel costs are nonetheless properly beneath the all-time excessive set in March. Dig a bit deeper, nonetheless, they usually are signaling a extra protracted disruption than markets anticipated within the quick aftermath of  Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

While the fuel market then priced in a short-lived disaster, lasting maybe a few months, it’s now flashing excessive hazard for subsequent winter, by way of 2023 and, more and more, into 2024. Over the previous couple of days, the entire European fuel worth curve has repriced at a a lot larger degree.

The shift within the ahead curve has been essentially the most notable improvement of the fuel market in the previous month – one which’s not gathering sufficient consideration in European capitals. But the business is keenly conscious, because it’s bearing the fee. Back in March, a German producer may lock in fuel costs for all of 2023 at about 80 euros per megawatt hour; now, it has to pay a document excessive 145 euros to hedge the identical worth threat.

Last week, the intently watched Dutch TTF contract, a European spot benchmark, rose to about 175 euros, doubling in a month, after Russia minimize provides by way of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline into Germany. Even so, spot fuel costs stay 30% beneath the document excessive settlement of 227 euros set in the course of the early days of the conflict — worrying, however not alarming; costs are excessive, however not that top. After what the market weathered in March, one can perceive why coverage makers aren’t panicking.

But that’s should you ignore the motion on the again finish of the curve. On March 5 — when spot fuel costs surged to about 185 euros — the contract for supply in December 2022 rose solely to about 155 euros; final week, when the spot worth was barely decrease, the December contract traded at almost 195 euros.

A yr into Russia manipulating European fuel provides, the market is lastly satisfied that Moscow will proceed to take action, and maybe with better depth.The first check comes within the subsequent two weeks. The Nord Stream 1 pipeline, crucial fuel hyperlink between Russia and the European Union, undergoes annual upkeep from July 11 to July 21. Berlin fears that Moscow will discover an excuse to maintain it closed for good, chopping fuel provides to Germany fully. After all that Moscow has finished, the German authorities is correct to be involved.Yet, Russia might wish to hold some fuel flowing to protect its long-term leverage. From a game-theory standpoint, that is sensible. Once Russia stops shipments fully, it could possibly now not apply strain. Tactically, Moscow is more likely to hold some fuel transferring, retaining the choice of chopping or slowing flows at any time when it chooses.

Moreover, Nord Stream 1 is the primary route for Russian fuel into Europe listed towards the TTF contract, in line with Goldman Sachs. Not reopening the pipeline after the upkeep shutdown will restrict the revenue that Gazprom, the Russian state-owned fuel large, enjoys from sky-high fuel costs.Russia has clearly written off its fuel relationship with Europe. For now, nonetheless, the Kremlin will proceed to get pleasure from one of the best of each worlds: excessive income and compelling leverage. To obtain its aims, Russia must proceed promoting some fuel into Germany, however at lowered charges, because it’s at the moment doing.The market is correct to reprice the fuel curve; the one query is why it took so lengthy. There’s additional threat forward: At some level, Moscow will fully flip off the faucet, most likely simply earlier than the winter, to attempt to deliver the German financial system to its knees. That’s an consequence the market hasn’t priced but. 

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti, Unione Europea

Inflazione. Powell e Lagarde non sanno che pesci prendere.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-07-05.

United States Bankruptcy Court 001

Cerchiamo di chiarirci le idee, nei limiti del possibile.

Gli stati occidentali soffrono una inflazione generata da due grandi cause, quasi indipendenti tra di esse.

In primo luogo, nel breve volgere di un anno i prezzi delle materie prime, non solo di quelle energetiche, sono aumentati di circa il 100%. I costi delle importazioni sono aumentati di conseguenza, e la risultante si concretizza in una inflazione ingovernabile.

Su questa tipologia di inflazione le banche centrali sono disarmate. Il problema è solo e solamente politico.

La guerra scatenata da Joe Biden ne è in gran quota responsabile, ma Joe Biden non vuole tornare indietro.

Le sanzioni imposte alla Russia si sono ripercosse sugli stati occidentali, privandoli di materie prime che sono adesso introvabili, indipendentemente dal prezzo.

In secondo luogo, gli stati occidentali sono gravati da immani debiti pubblici. Al settembre 2021 il debito pubblico americano ammontava a 28.429 trilioni di dollari, ma quello totale raggiungeva i 96 trilioni. Il debito pubblico del blocco europeo a fine 2021 era del 97.5% del pil.

Per decine di anni gli stati occidentali hanno alimentato i propri welfare attingendo al debito. Infatti il sistema elettorale a suffragio universale da la vittoria alla formazione politica che offre di più.

Ma rinunciare, anche se costretti, all’apporto del debito, significa una miseria generalizzata: la pacchia è finita.

* * *

Nei fatti, tapering ed innalzamento dei tassi di interesse combattono soltanto la inflazione dovuta al debito pubblico, ma questo avviene a costo di mandare i paesi in depressione.

America. Wall Street. Da Sep2021 al Jun22 18 la capitalizzazione ha perso 15.5 trilioni di dollari.

Se hanno perso larga quota del capitale i privati investitori, i fondi di investimento, quelli non ancora falliti, non sono in grado di erogare interessi. Ma questo è ancora il meno. Moti fondi pensione sono già falliti, lasciando per sempre i loro pensionati con in mano solo carta straccia.

L’occidente si avvia al default, se non anche alla guerra civile.

* * * * * * *


Una nuova era dell’inflazione lascia Powell e Lagarde in cerca di risposte.

I banchieri centrali riconoscono quanto il mondo sia cambiato.

I capi delle banche centrali degli Stati Uniti e della zona euro hanno condiviso i loro dubbi sul fatto che il contesto di bassa inflazione precedente al coronavirus possa mai tornare, un cambiamento che li lascia alla ricerca di risposte mentre i tassi di interesse aumentano.

Parlando mercoledì al forum annuale della sua istituzione a Sintra, in Portogallo, Powell ha spiegato come forze quali la globalizzazione, l’invecchiamento demografico, la bassa produttività e gli sviluppi tecnologici non riescano più a tenere sotto controllo i prezzi.

Lagarde ha osservato, con un pizzico di nostalgia, che le cose non saranno più le stesse.

Powell ha avvertito che, pur ritenendo possibile un rialzo dei tassi senza innescare una recessione, “sarà piuttosto impegnativo.

Il capo della banca centrale statunitense ha avvertito che potrebbe essere troppo presto per giudicare se l’alta inflazione sia una caratteristica permanente dell’economia globale.

Nel frattempo, i banchieri centrali devono adattarsi alla nuova realtà.

Credo che ci rendiamo conto meglio di quanto poco capiamo dell’inflazione.

* * * * * * *


«A new inflation era leaves Powell and Lagarde seeking answers»

«Central bankers acknowledge just how far the world has changed»

«The central bank chiefs of the US and the euro zone shared their doubts that the low-inflation environment before the coronavirus will ever return, a shift leaving them searching for answers as interest rates rise»

«Speaking on Wednesday at her institution’s annual forum in Sintra, Portugal, Powell explained how forces including globalization, aging demographics, low productivity, and technological developments are no longer keeping prices in check»

«Lagarde observed, with a hint of nostalgia, that things just won’t be the same»

«Powell offered a warning that while he considers it possible to hike rates without triggering a recession, it “will be quite challenging.”»

«The US central bank chief cautioned that it may be too early to judge if high inflation is a more permanent feature of the global economy»

«In the meantime, the central bankers must adjust to the new reality»

«I think we understand better how little we understand about inflation»

* * * * * * *


A New Inflation Era Leaves Powell and Lagarde Seeking Answers

– Central bankers acknowledge just how far the world has changed

– ‘We’re learning to deal with it,’ Powell tells ECB’s forum

* * * * * * *

The central bank chiefs of the US and the euro zone shared their doubts that the low-inflation environment before the coronavirus will ever return, a shift leaving them searching for answers as interest rates rise.

“Since the pandemic, we’ve been living in a world where the economy has been driven by very different forces,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on a panel moderated by Bloomberg Television’s Francine Lacqua. 

Alongside him, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde concurred that she doesn’t think “that we are going to go back to that environment of low inflation.”

Speaking on Wednesday at her institution’s annual forum in Sintra, Portugal, Powell explained how forces including globalization, aging demographics, low productivity, and technological developments are no longer keeping prices in check. The Fed’s alarm at inflation recently prompted officials to raise rates by the most since 1994. 

“What we don’t know is whether we’ll be going back to something that looks more like or a little bit like what we had before — we suspect it’ll be kind of a blend.” Powell said. “We’re learning to deal with it.” 

Central bank officials from across the globe are gathered at the ECB’s first such hillside retreat since before the pandemic against a backdrop of surging consumer prices, threats to economic growth and the possibility of further energy disruptions. Lagarde observed, with a hint of nostalgia, that things just won’t be the same. 

“There are forces that have been unleashed as a result of the pandemic as a result of this massive geopolitical shock we are facing now that are going to change the picture and the landscape within which which we operate,” she said.

Also present, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, whose own economy is also contending with its exit from the European Union, observed that the sheer succession of impacts buffeting the UK is in itself a challenge. 

“It’s how you deal with a series of large supply shocks with no air gap between them, which of course feeds through into expectations,” he said. “Put them all together, they’re not transitory in the traditional sense of the term.”

Lagarde echoed Powell to provide a similar list of the downward forces containing inflation in the past 20 years, including “just-on-time” manufacturing. She reckoned the shifting era will herald yet more upheaval. 

“That has changed, and will probably change continuously towards a system that we are not certain about,” Lagarde said. 

Powell offered a warning that while he considers it possible to hike rates without triggering a recession, it “will be quite challenging.” The ECB — which is on track to raise twice in the next quarter — must be ready to step up action if needed, while moving gradually to account for high uncertainty, Lagarde said.

The US central bank chief cautioned that it may be too early to judge if high inflation is a more permanent feature of the global economy, observing that economists’ models had failed to anticipate a huge supply shock. 

“That process could work in reverse,” he said. “Inflation could come down more quickly.” 

In the meantime, the central bankers must adjust to the new reality. 

“We’ve lived in that world where inflation was not a problem,” Powell said. “I think we understand better how little we understand about inflation.”