Pubblicato in: Cina, Devoluzione socialismo, Diplomazia, Unione Europea

Lituania. Le multinazionali tedesche premono a favore della Cina. Smacco della EU.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-01-26.

Lituania__001

La Cina considera Formosa suo territorio nazionale. La Lituania ha invitato Taiwan ad aprire a Viluns una rappresentanza con tal nome.

La Cina ha bandito dal commercio cinese chiunque avesse mantenuto rapporti economici o commerciali con la Lituania.

Le società tedesche coinvolte ingiungono quindi alla Lituania di desistere da simile atteggiamento, pena l’abbandono e la scelta per la Cina.

«Lithuania has become a no-go zone in China»

* * * * * * *

Lituania. Blinken e Simonyte e le sanzione imposte dalla Cina. Lituania sulla brace.

Lituania. Cina bandisce le società che hanno rapporti con la Lituania. Vilnius ed EU sulla brace.

Russia espelle sette diplomatici della Slovakia, Lituania, Lettonia ed Estonia.

Unione Europea e Visegrad. Scontro (quasi) finale. La Lituania.

Lituania. Altra débâcle socialista. Socialdemocratici crollano al 15.5%.

CEEC. 2020. Interscambio per 103.5 mld Usd, +8.4%, nonostante l’epidemia.

China’s European Diplomacy

Asia alla conquista dell’Europa dell’Est.

* * * * * * *

«China views …. Taiwan as its territory»

«The covert form of trade sanctions came into being after Lithuania recently invited Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory, to open a “representative office” in Vilnius.»

«Taiwan has other offices in Europe and the United States but they use the name of the city Taipei, avoiding reference to the island itself»

«China has told multinationals to sever ties with Lithuania or face being shut out of the Chinese market»

* * * * * * *

«German big business piles pressure on Lithuania in China row»

«Multinationals dragged into dispute by Lithuania blockade»

«Companies urge Lithuania to back down»

«Lithuania is under pressure from German companies to back down in a dispute with China to end a blockade of the Baltic state»

«China has pressed multinationals to sever ties with Lithuania or face exclusion from its market, an unusually harsh move that has dragged companies into a political dispute and placed Beijing on a collision course with the European Union»

«The row erupted after the Baltic state allowed the opening of a de facto embassy by Taiwan, a self-ruled island that China views as part of its territory»

«Some of the companies affected have asked Lithuania’s political leaders to de-escalate the dispute or risk a corporate exodus»

«Many multinationals are affected, but one of the most significant hits is to the German car sector»

«In a letter to Lithuania’s foreign and economy ministers, the German-Baltic Chamber of Commerce said imports of Chinese machinery and parts and the sale of Lithuanian products to China had ground to a halt and that some firms may have to leave»

«the basic business model of the companies is in question and some … will have no other choice than to shut down production in Lithuania»

«The overall damage to industry runs to hundreds of millions of euros, and she was told this would escalate if the dispute continues to interrupt global production»

«The focus of the dispute is the opening of a representative office by Taiwan in Vilnius, although tensions have mounted since Lithuania’s ruling coalition agreed last year to support what it described as “those fighting for freedom” on the island …. Renaming the office to remove the word Taiwan could resolve the dispute. Taiwan has other offices in Europe and the United States but they use the name of the city Taipei, avoiding reference to the island itself.» 

«But salvaging relations will be difficult.»

«The Lithuanian government has betrayed China’s trust, …. For China-Lithuania relations to get back on track, Lithuania must first correct its attitude and take practical actions to correct its mistakes»

«A spokesperson for the European Commission said it would resist “coercive measures”, adding: “We stand by Lithuania. Lithuanian exports are EU exports.”»

«China appeared to reject Brussels’ involvement»

«Problems between China and Lithuania should and can only be solved through bilateral channels between China and Lithuania»

«The stand-off threatens Lithuanian industry, which has built up clusters of factories making parts destined for overseas, such as furniture, clothing, car parts and lasers»

«It has rippled through global supply chains and, in the case of Continental, has had knock-on effects on customers such as luxury carmaker BMW and Volkswagen»

«Lithuania has become a no-go zone in China»

«European companies cannot register it as a country of origin for products they are selling here. It’s been taken off the map»

«If a Lithuanian company needs Chinese components for its production but cannot find them because China is blocking»

* * * * * * *

Questo è un altro segno di quanto siano mutati i tempi.

La Cina è in grado di imporre sanzioni efficaci al sistema produttivo occidentale, che non può fare altro che obbedire.

Si evidenzia un severo scollamento tra la politica e la realtà economica occidentale, che hanno idee ed obiettivi divergenti, se non opposti.

Nessuna realtà economica occidentale intende rinunciare al commercio ed alla produzione in Cina, il più grande mercato mondiale, per assecondare direttive politiche occidentali.

* * * * * * *


Analysis: German big business piles pressure on Lithuania in China row.

–  says Lithuania betrayed its trust on Taiwan

– Multinationals dragged into dispute by Lithuania blockade

– Companies urge Lithuania to back down – sources

* * * * * * *

Vilnius/Frankfurt, Jan 21 (Reuters) – Lithuania is under pressure from German companies to back down in a dispute with China to end a blockade of the Baltic state, as European trade officials struggle to defuse the row, people familiar with the matter said.

China has pressed multinationals to sever ties with Lithuania or face exclusion from its market, an unusually harsh move that has dragged companies into a political dispute and placed Beijing on a collision course with the European Union.  

The row erupted after the Baltic state allowed the opening of a de facto embassy by Taiwan, a self-ruled island that China views as part of its territory.

Some of the companies affected have asked Lithuania’s political leaders to de-escalate the dispute or risk a corporate exodus, according to people involved and correspondence seen by Reuters.

Many multinationals are affected, but one of the most significant hits is to the German car sector.

In a letter to Lithuania’s foreign and economy ministers, the German-Baltic Chamber of Commerce said imports of Chinese machinery and parts and the sale of Lithuanian products to China had ground to a halt and that some firms may have to leave.

Urging the ministers to seek a “constructive solution” to restore relations with China, the chamber said “the basic business model of the companies is in question and some … will have no other choice than to shut down production in Lithuania”.

Last month, Lithuania’s Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte met with business leaders, including executives from German car-parts giant Continental, to listen to their concerns, said one person who attended.

The overall damage to industry runs to hundreds of millions of euros, and she was told this would escalate if the dispute continues to interrupt global production, the person said.

This week, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda also held talks with business executives when he was urged to make an “immediate de-escalation,” according to one person with knowledge of that discussion.

The European Union’s top trade official, Valdis Dombrovskis, is also attempting to mediate between Beijing and Vilnius, ahead of a possible EU-China summit meeting in the coming months, said a person with knowledge of the matter. Lithuania belongs to the 27-state bloc.

                         RENAMING

The focus of the dispute is the opening of a representative office by Taiwan in Vilnius, although tensions have mounted since Lithuania’s ruling coalition agreed last year to support what it described as “those fighting for freedom” on the island.

Renaming the office to remove the word Taiwan could resolve the dispute. Taiwan has other offices in Europe and the United States but they use the name of the city Taipei, avoiding reference to the island itself.  

But salvaging relations will be difficult.

“The Lithuanian government has betrayed China’s trust,” the Chinese foreign ministry told Reuters in a statement.

“For China-Lithuania relations to get back on track, Lithuania must first correct its attitude and take practical actions to correct its mistakes,” said the ministry, denying that China was exerting economic pressure.

A spokesperson for the European Commission said it would resist “coercive measures”, adding: “We stand by Lithuania. Lithuanian exports are EU exports.”

The Commission said it was reaching out to China to resolve the situation and “collecting facts and evidence” to see if China was complying with international trade rules. “We will not hesitate to act to defend our rights,” said the spokesperson.

So far, there is no sign of a climbdown by Lithuania, with its president telling the business meeting this week that it was up to Brussels, home of the European Commission, to find a solution.

While one Lithuanian official, asking not to be named, said Brussels’ involvement as a go-between was critical, another said EU backing was half-hearted and that its officials too urged Lithuania to compromise.

                         ‘NO-GO ZONE’

China appeared to reject Brussels’ involvement.

“Problems between China and Lithuania should and can only be solved through bilateral channels between China and Lithuania,” said China’s foreign ministry. “Linking China-Lithuania issues to China-EU relations is … unlikely to solve the problem.”

The stand-off threatens Lithuanian industry, which has built up clusters of factories making parts destined for overseas, such as furniture, clothing, car parts and lasers. Hundreds of containers of goods and parts are in limbo.

It has rippled through global supply chains and, in the case of Continental, has had knock-on effects on customers such as luxury carmaker BMW and Volkswagen, two of the people said.

Volkswagen said its production is not affected, while BMW and Continental declined to comment.

“Lithuania has become a no-go zone in China,” said Joerg Wuttke, president of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China.

“European companies cannot register it as a country of origin for products they are selling here. It’s been taken off the map.”

France’s trade minister Franck Riester promised to help Lithuania.

“If a Lithuanian company needs Chinese components for its production but cannot find them because China is blocking … we will be happy to help by putting it in contact with French companies or companies from other Member States,” he said.

Paris, which holds the EU presidency in the coming months, is attempting to speed up introduction of new EU trade defence measures, said French officials.

The measures could penalise China in such disputes, although it is unclear whether Europe, where countries such as Germany depend on it for trade, will agree to them.

Similarly, it has been difficult for Brussels to launch legal action against China because companies affected are unwilling to be publicly named, one person with knowledge of the matter said.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Europa. Considerare il covid al livello della influenza, una patologia endemica.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-01-25.

Caravaggio_the-cardsharps_e1

«Europe slowly starts to consider treating covid like the flu»

«Spain is calling for COVID-19 to be treated as an endemic disease, like the flu, becoming the first major European nation to explicitly suggest that people live with it»

«The idea has gradually been gaining traction and could prompt a re-evaluation of government strategies on dealing with the virus»

«the U.K. is “on a path towards transitioning from pandemic to endemic»

«The omicron variant’s lower hospitalization and death rates despite record infections prompted Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez to hold out the tantalizing prospect of Europe moving beyond pandemic-style restrictions on normal life»

«European governments may need to assess the disease with different parameters than ones used so far»

«But as governments work on keeping schools open and economies functioning as normally as possible, lower hospitalizations may prompt a review of strategies»

«But while vaccinations have been central to keeping most people with omicron out of the hospital, the shots have been less effective at halting the spread of the variant»

«Many countries are shortening quarantine periods as they try to keep essential services operating»

«If European countries manage to relax restrictions in the coming weeks, last year’s experiences will remain a cautionary tale»

* * * * * * *

Il sistema economico europeo è alle corde.

Il PPI europeo quota 23.7%.

Le ripetute chiusure e riaperture delle attività, in un vortice di provvedimenti, sono un severo ostacolo alla produzione industriale ed alla organizzazione del lavoro in senso lato.

Così, visto che l’Europa e gli stati non hanno saputo dominare il Covid, molto semplicemente lo vogliono declassare a livello di patologia endemica, esattamente come la influenza.

Visto? Basta una modesto cambio lessicologico di definizione del fatto ed il problema è risolto.

Il morbo del secolo è scomparso.

* * * * * * *


Europe Slowly Starts to Consider Treating Covid Like the Flu.

Spain is calling for COVID-19 to be treated as an endemic disease, like the flu, becoming the first major European nation to explicitly suggest that people live with it.

The idea has gradually been gaining traction and could prompt a re-evaluation of government strategies on dealing with the virus. British Education Secretary Nadhim Zahawi on Sunday told the BBC that the U.K. is “on a path towards transitioning from pandemic to endemic.”

The omicron variant’s lower hospitalization and death rates despite record infections prompted Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez to hold out the tantalizing prospect of Europe moving beyond pandemic-style restrictions on normal life.

“We have to evaluate the evolution of COVID from pandemic to an endemic illness,” Sanchez said in a radio interview Monday, adding that European governments may need to assess the disease with different parameters than ones used so far.

In places like France, Germany, Italy and Romania — all of which are recording the highest average daily case levels of the entire pandemic — it may be a bit early for such talk. Also, the World Health Organization said Tuesday that at the current clip, more than half of the people in Europe are on track to contract the omicron variant in the next two months.

But as governments work on keeping schools open and economies functioning as normally as possible, lower hospitalizations may prompt a review of strategies.

For now, France and Germany are continuing to tighten restrictions, especially on the unvaccinated. French President Emmanuel Macron has said he wants to make life for the unvaccinated as difficult as possible, and is seeking to put a vaccine pass in place to access bars and restaurants, or even to travel by train.

The Netherlands has maintained one of the strictest lockdowns in Europe, with restaurants and bars closed. In Italy, Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s government has mandated vaccines for those over 50 years old.

“Most of the problems we have today stem from the fact that there are people who are not vaccinated,” Draghi said at a news conference in Rome on Monday.

But while vaccinations have been central to keeping most people with omicron out of the hospital, the shots have been less effective at halting the spread of the variant. This leaves politicians trying to figure out how to contain the spread, particularly as vocal groups in their countries become increasingly opposed to limits on restaurants, bars and other activities.

Despite having some of the highest COVID-19 rates in Europe, Ireland will maintain a system of voluntary vaccination, according to Prime Minister Micheal Martin. The Belgian government wants to give people a “free choice,” Prime Minister Alexander De Croo said.

Many countries are shortening quarantine periods as they try to keep essential services operating. The latest is the Czech Republic, which as of Tuesday is requiring COVID-positive people to isolate for five days, down from two weeks.

Travel restrictions have also shown their limits. The U.K. was the first country to ban flights from southern Africa, where omicron was first identified. Yet it was the first place in Europe to suffer an omicron wave. Similarly, France overtook the U.K.’s case rate despite slapping limits on travel from Britain.

The Spanish government has been working on a new monitoring approach in recent weeks, and Health Minister Carolina Darias has brought the matter up with her European counterparts, Sanchez said.

The effort came as Spain reported almost 692,000 new cases in the last seven days, with 13.4% of hospital beds used for COVID-19 patients, according to Health Ministry data. That compares with 13.8% a year earlier, when the number of recorded weekly cases was just above 115,000.

If European countries manage to relax restrictions in the coming weeks, last year’s experiences will remain a cautionary tale. Denmark removed all COVID-19 restrictions last fall, while the Netherlands dropped all masking requirements. Both countries currently have some of Europe’s highest case rates and have reimposed restrictions.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Roberta Metsola. Il nuovo presidente del parlamento europeo. Una mutazione.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-01-20.

2022-01-20__ Metsola 001

Il tempo scorre così veloce che resta difficile razionalizzare le mutazioni che siano avvenute, e la elezione di Mrs Roberta Metsola a presidente del parlamento europeo costituisce una importante trasformazione.

Malta è una microscopica nazione, che però in passato ha saputo ben difendere i propri interessi.

«She was elected with a clear majority of 458 out of 616 ballots cast»

«She comes from the conservative European People’s Party (EPP) faction, whereas Sassoli was a member of the center-left Socialists & Democrats (S&D) political grouping»

«Metsola switched from Maltese to Italian and English to French in her maiden speech»

«The Greens, the Left and the national-conservative European Conservative and Reformist factions also presented candidates»

«Her strong opposition to abortion has drawn criticism from some opponents»

* * * * * * *

Prendiamo atto di quanto siano mutati i tempi.


European Parliament elects conservative Roberta Metsola as president

The European Parliament has elected conservative Maltese lawyer Roberta Metsola as president after the death of office-holder David Sassoli. She is the first woman in 20 years to hold the post.

The European Union’s 705-seat legislature on Tuesday elected Maltese conservative Roberta Metsola as its new president.

Metsola has been acting president since the death last Tuesday of her predecessor David Sassoli, to whom she was vice president.

She was elected with a clear majority of 458 out of 616 ballots cast.

The timing of the election had nothing to do with Sassoli’s death. He had been due to leave at the end of January — after two-and-a-half years in post — under a power-sharing deal.

                         Who is the new president?

At the age of 43, Metsola is the youngest person in the history of the legislature to hold the post and the first woman in 20 years.

She comes from the conservative European People’s Party (EPP) faction, whereas Sassoli was a member of the center-left Socialists & Democrats (S&D) political grouping.

Metsola switched from Maltese to Italian and English to French in her maiden speech.  

“I feel honored by the responsibility with which you are entrusting me,” she told fellow lawmakers at the parliamentary meeting in the French city of Strasbourg. 

She gave a warning that some forces would “continue to test the limits of our values and European principles,” warning that the legislature would need to “fight back against anti-EU sentiment which takes hold so quickly and so easily.”

“To those who seek to destroy Europe, know that this house stands against you,” she said. 

Metsola has been a member of the European Parliament since 2013.  As a member of Malta’s center-right Nationalist Party, she has been active since her youth having campaigned as a student for the small island nation to become a member of the EU. Her strong opposition to abortion has drawn criticism from some opponents.

As President of the European Parliament, she will direct the activities of the legislature’s plenary sessions, and maintain order during sittings. The president also gives the floor to speakers, signs laws, and customarily speaks at the opening of EU summits.

The Greens, the Left and the national-conservative European Conservative and Reformist factions also presented candidates. However, as the EPP’s choice, Metsola had been considered the frontrunner.

The parliament has had only two previous female presidents, Simone Veil and Nicole Fontaine, both French, since it became a directly elected assembly in 1979.

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen congratulated Metsola on her election. 

“As the third woman to head this noble house, your hard work & determination are an inspiration to us all,” she tweeted. 

                         Agreement to hand over

Sassoli passed away at the age of 65 after several months of poor health. He had been a member of the EU assembly for more than 10 years, having switched from journalism to politics with Italy’s center-left Democratic Party.

He was unexpectedly elected in 2019 with the support of two major political groupings — the S&D and the EPP, as well as liberal members.

Sassoli and the groups had reached an agreement for him to hand over the post to someone from the EPP halfway through his term.

The parliament on Monday honored Sassoli at a plenary session in Strasbourg on Monday, with fellow parliamentarians holding a minute’s silence. 

Italy honored him with a state funeral in Rome.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Unione Europea

Eurozona. Nov21. Produzione Industriale -1.5% su Nov20. – Eurostat.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-01-16.

2022-01-14__ Eurostat 001

Euro zone output falls in Nov vs year earlier, defying growth expectation

Brussels, Jan 12 (Reuters) – Euro zone industrial production fell in November from a year earlier, the European Union’s statistics office Eurostat said on Wednesday, defying market expectations of a small increase mainly due to a sharp drop in the output of capital goods.

Eurostat said industrial output in the 19 countries sharing the euro rose 2.3% month-on-month but still fell 1.5% year-on-year. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 0.5% monthly rise and a 0.6% annual gain.

Figures for October were also sharply revised downwards to a decline of 1.3% in the month and a 0.2% year-on-year gain from previously reported rises of respectively 1.1% and 3.3%

The surprise year-on-year fall in November was mainly caused by a 9.8% slump in the production of capital goods, which pulled down the overall reading despite a 4.4% rise for durable consumer goods and a 6.1% rise for non-durable consumer goods.

2022-01-14__ Eurostat 002

* * * * * * *

L’Eurozona è in stagflazione: alta inflazione e produzione industriale in contrazione.

Si noti come Germania e Francia siano anche esse in contrazione, essendo la produzione industriale di -2.5% e -0.2%, rispettivamente. Il dato italiano non è al momento disponibile.

* * * * * * *

Eurostat. November 2021 compared with October 2021. Industrial production up by 2.3% in euro area and by 2.5% in the EU. Down by 1.5% and unchanged compared with November 2020.

In November 2021, the seasonally adjusted industrial production rose by 2.3% in the euro area and by 2.5% in the EU, compared with October 2021, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In October 2021, industrial production fell by 1.3% in the euro area and by 0.8% in the EU.

In November 2021 compared with November 2020, industrial production decreased by 1.5% in the euro area and remained unchanged in the EU.

                         Monthly comparison by main industrial grouping and by Member State

In the euro area in November 2021, compared with October 2021, production of non-durable consumer goods rose by 3.2%, capital goods by 1.5%, energy by 1.2% and intermediate goods by 0.9%, while production of durable consumer goods fell by 0.2%.

In the EU, production of non-durable consumer goods rose by 3.0%, capital goods by 2.3%, intermediate goods by 1.4%, energy by 0.9% and durable consumer goods by 0.1%.

Among Member States for which data are available, the largest monthly increases were registered in Ireland (+37.3%), Poland (+5.9%) and Czechia (+4.8%). The highest decreases were observed in Belgium (-4.4%), Malta (-3.7%) and Luxembourg (-2.3%).

                         Annual comparison by main industrial grouping and by Member State

In the euro area in November 2021, compared with November 2020, production of capital goods fell by 9.8%, while intermediate goods rose by 1.9%, energy by 3.7%, durable consumer goods by 4.4% and non-durable consumer goods by 6.1%.

In the EU, production of capital goods fell by 8.2%, while intermediate goods rose by 2.8%, durable consumer goods by 4.9%, energy by 6.7% and non-durable consumer goods by 7.3%.

Among Member States for which data are available, the largest annual decreases were registered in Ireland (-30.4%), Malta (-7.8%), Germany and Luxembourg (both -2.5%). The highest increases were observed in Lithuania (+17.0%), Poland (+15.3%) and Bulgaria (+13.3%).

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Unione Europea

ECB. Il 2022 è l’anno ‘o la va o la spacca’. Potrebbe anche spaccarsi.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-01-15.

Affresco Parete Sud. Sala dei Giganti. Modena. 1532 - 1534.

«many on its council are frightened of what will happen to bond yields»

«The biggest concern is Italy, both for its size (it has one of the largest government-bond markets in the world) and its debt dynamics»

«With the ECB rapidly running out of a market anesthetic, some sort of crisis this year is probably unavoidable»

* * * * * * *

«For good or bad, the future of the euro will probably be decided this year»

«In an attempt to generate inflation, central banks have cut short-term interest rates to nothing or less over the past 20 years or so and expanded their balance sheets to levels that would have been previously unimaginable»

«The European Central Bank has been particularly aggressive. Euro deposit rates are minus 0.5% and the ECB’s balance sheet is laden with 8.5 trillion euros ($9.66 trillion) of assets, four times more than at the beginning of 2015»

«Where the ECB has differed from other central banks is in its other, generally unstated, aim: to keep the euro project on track by preventing yields on sovereign bonds issued by its weaker members from rising abruptly»

«The ECB could pretend that insanely low short- and long-term rates had the aim of trying to drive up inflation when there wasn’t any»

«Inflation rose by 5% in December from a year earlier, Eurostat announced Jan. 7»

«In recent months, euro zone creditor countries, generally in northern Europe, have become increasingly vocal that current policy cannot continue, both because they are worried about domestic inflation and because they are fed up subsidizing more profligate countries»

«More hawkish members of the ECB are openly questioning these predictions, including the influential Isabel Schnabel, the German representative on the governing council. On Jan. 8, she said the transition to a greener economy would very likely mean that energy prices are unlikely to fall»

«Broadly speaking, the ECB currently has three programs: a long-standing Asset Purchase Program (APP), the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) and a third incarnation of a plan to encourage banks to lend to the real economy known as targeted longer-term refinancing operations, or TLTRO»

«the ECB has bought about 1.5 trillion euros of bonds»

«the ECB’s combined purchases of bonds under the APP and the PEPP were 100 billion euros a month»

«Although some institutions have simply used this program to cheapen their overall funding mix, there is little doubt others have used the money to buy government bonds, even riskier ones. Although we don’t know how much, the amount is probably large given that there are some 2.4 trillion euros of outstanding TLTRO loans»

«The biggest reason the ECB has been dragging its heels on ending these programs is that many on its council are frightened of what will happen to bond yields, especially those of the euro zone’s weaker members on the periphery»

«The biggest concern is Italy, both for its size (it has one of the largest government-bond markets in the world) and its debt dynamics»

«With the ECB rapidly running out of a market anesthetic, some sort of crisis this year is probably unavoidable»

«The second is for Italy to leave the euro»

«For the euro to survive, compromise of some sort will be needed»

* * * * * * *

LIndice dei Prezzi alla Produzione ha raggiunto il +23.7% anno su anno.

La ECB può collassarsi sia sullo scoglio dei debiti pubblici, così come su quello della inflazione in tumultuosa crescita.

La banca centrale è in un vicolo cieco, e qualsiasi scelta essa faccia sarà pur sempre molto dolorosa.

L’anno 2022 verosimilmente sarà quello del redde rationem.

* * * * * * *


The Euro Is Facing a Make-or-Break Year. – Bloomberg.

For good or bad, the future of the euro will probably be decided this year. In an attempt to generate inflation, central banks have cut short-term interest rates to nothing or less over the past 20 years or so and expanded their balance sheets to levels that would have been previously unimaginable. The European Central Bank has been particularly aggressive. Euro deposit rates are minus 0.5% and the ECB’s balance sheet is laden with 8.5 trillion euros ($9.66 trillion) of assets, four times more than at the beginning of 2015.

Where the ECB has differed from other central banks is in its other, generally unstated, aim: to keep the euro project on track by preventing yields on sovereign bonds issued by its weaker members from rising abruptly. As it turns out, this makes the euro much less stable.

The ECB could pretend that insanely low short- and long-term rates had the aim of trying to drive up inflation when there wasn’t any. The recent inflationary surge has put that pretense to rest. Inflation rose by 5% in December from a year earlier, Eurostat announced Jan. 7, its highest level in the history of the euro. Strangely, the ECB has continued to claim that this spurt is temporary. Given current extreme monetary policy settings, the ECB’s intransigence can be understood only if you recognize that in recent years the central bank has not been independent in any meaningful sense. It is now firmly under the thumb of government borrowers, especially the weaker ones within the euro zone.

In recent months, euro zone creditor countries, generally in northern Europe, have become increasingly vocal that current policy cannot continue, both because they are worried about about domestic inflation and because they are fed up subsidizing more profligate countries. The deal stitched together late last year was that balance-sheet expansion would end and that the ECB would provide explicit criteria for shifting short rates higher. First, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, would have to be trending higher. Second, the ECB’s inflation forecasts in the current and following year would have to be 2% or more. At the end of December, the central bank announced that it even though it expected inflation of 3.2% this year, the rate would miraculously drop to 1.8% in the following two years.

More hawkish members of the ECB are openly questioning these predictions, including the influential Isabel Schnabel, the German representative on the governing council. On Jan. 8, she said the transition to a greener economy would very likely mean that energy prices are unlikely to fall, as the forecasts of the ECB’s research department under uber-dove Philip Lane assume. If they only stay where they are, the ECB’s inflation predictions would be substantially higher. This pressure opens the door for rate increases, perhaps even late this year.

In the meantime, that screeching sound you hear will be the ECB slamming the brakes on balance-sheet expansion. Broadly speaking, the ECB currently has three programs: a long-standing Asset Purchase Program (APP), the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) and a third incarnation of a plan to encourage banks to lend to the real economy known as targeted longer-term refinancing operations, or TLTRO. The PEPP was launched in early 2020 to keep inflation expectations from falling, the ECB said at the time. Under this program, which is scheduled to end in March, the ECB has bought about 1.5 trillion euros of bonds. At its peak last year, the ECB’s combined purchases of bonds under the APP and the PEPP were 100 billion euros a month. Although purchases from the APP will be increased a little to help offset the end of the PEPP, direct ECB purchases will fall to 20 billion euros a month by the end of the year. Given that inflation has been so persistently high relative to its target, and short rates are still so negative, the ECB may even end the APP as early as October. Then there is TLTRO, which has allowed banks to fund themselves at up to half a percentage point less than the ECB’s deposit rate, currently -0.5%. Such funding was meant to be used for lending to the real economy, but the conditions under which banks could borrow at very cheap rates were easy to finesse. Although some institutions have simply used this program to cheapen their overall funding mix, there is little doubt others have used the money to buy government bonds, even riskier ones. Although we don’t know how much, the amount is probably large given that there are some 2.4 trillion euros of outstanding TLTRO loans. Those favorable terms run out on 1.2 trillion euros of the loans in June, and unless the terms are extended – and there is no rationale for doing so – we may soon find out just how much was used to buy riskier bonds. All things equal, the ECB’s balance sheet will probably contract by more than 1 trillion euros in June as its indirect support of bond markets diminishes.

What then? The biggest reason the ECB has been dragging its heels on ending these programs is that many on its council are frightened of what will happen to bond yields, especially those of the euro zone’s weaker members on the periphery. The central bank has said it will intervene if yield spreads widen in unjustifiable ways. With what, though? And what counts as unjustifiable? The biggest concern is Italy, both for its size (it has one of the largest government-bond markets in the world) and its debt dynamics. Under the toothless growth and stability pact, countries in the euro are required to try and cap their debt to 60% of GDP. All members have seen their ratios head sharply higher over the last couple of years, but Italy’s will have ballooned to about 155% of GDP this year, an increase of 50 percentage points since 2007. Italy’s banks, moreover, are heavily reliant on the TLTRO program for their funding, so loath are banks elsewhere to lend to them. Such is the ineffectual state of successive Italian governments that politicians have done nothing to reform either the financial system or anything much else.

With the ECB rapidly running out of a market anesthetic, some sort of crisis this year is probably unavoidable. Most countries, especially debtor countries (including France), have driven a truck through rules designed to stop free riding on their creditor counterparts. Assuming that northern European countries say that enough is enough, an awful lot of credit risk has been building up, for which investors are horribly under compensated. As the ECB steps away from the market, I would assume that this will become all too apparent and yield spreads for riskier borrowers will widen, perhaps dramatically.

There are broadly three ways in which this might be resolved. The first is for Italy to default. Since a lot of its debt is held domestically, this would essentially mean the government imposing losses on its own citizens. I’d count that as problematic. The second is for Italy to leave the euro. From an Italian perspective, this would have the advantage of imposing losses on creditor countries such as Germany via outstanding balances in the Target 2 “settlement” system. This option would make Brexit look like a playground fight.

Which perhaps leaves some sort of mutualization of existing debts, shoving them from the ECB into a debt-management office and promising to do better in the future. Former ECB president and current Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi and Emmanuel Macron, the embattled French president who is up for election in the spring, signed a joint letter just before Christmas implicitly calling for the transfer of all euro zone government debt since 2007 to such an agency. Germany would be furious with any such move. So would eastern European countries that spent years cutting debts to join the euro.

For the euro to survive, compromise of some sort will be needed. The snag is that I can’t see creditor countries agreeing until the potential pain is bad enough. And the potential pain would, I suspect, involve Italy threatening to leave the euro.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Europa. I non vaccinati espulsi dalla vita civile. Chi cerca un nemico è già sconfitto.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-01-14.

2022-01-10__ No Vax 001

«European governments – unable to stop, or even slow, the spread of infections – are focusing on the unvaccinated as part of efforts to protect their health services from overcrowding»

E così, mentre la situazione economica europea soffre una inflazione al 25%, i governi scaricano sui non vaccinati tutta la responsabilità della nuova epidemia.

Siamo alle solite.

Incapaci di assumersi le proprie responsabilità, i governi europei si sono costruiti il capro espiatorio. Se non ci fosse ce lo si inventerebbe.

* * * * * * *

«From Boris Johnson to Emmanuel Macron, EU leaders are increasingly attacking anti-vaxxers as the battle against the rapidly spreading omicron variant worsens pandemic fatigue in the region.

«Amid a seemingly unstoppable rise in infections, authorities are focusing restrictions on unvaccinated people rather than resorting to widespread crackdowns»

«French President Macron took the rhetoric to a new level this week when he said his government’s strategy was to ‘piss off’ those who refused the shots»

«In the UK, Johnson accused anti-vaccines of spreading “nonsense.”»

«German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who supports the obligation to shoot with bullets, called the anti-vax movement “a tiny minority of reckless extremists”»

«As the pandemic enters its third year and around 70% of Europe is fully vaccinated, leaders are betting they have popular support for the approach»

«Across the continent, coercion politics are becoming the order of the day, with many governments trying to make life difficult for those who refuse a vaccine and brush aside concerns about civil liberties»

«France is tightening restrictions on unvaccinated people, seeking to implement a vaccine pass to access bars and restaurants, or even travel by train»

«Neighboring Italy on Wednesday made gunfire mandatory for people over 50, although the € 100 ($ 113) fine for non-compliance was deliberately kept low»

«In Austria, the unvaccinated are banned from most areas of life, including non-essential shopping, hotels and restaurants, although enforcement is patchy»

«Authorities on Friday created an even bigger hurdle, requiring negative tests in non-essential restaurants and stores for those fully vaccinated»

«European governments – unable to stop, or even slow, the spread of infections – are focusing on the unvaccinated as part of efforts to protect their health services from overcrowding»

«While Johnson has said he is in favor of a voluntary approach to vaccinations, this week his frustration with anti-vaccines has boiled over»

* * * * * * *

Come da manuale, quando la politica si impadronisce di problemi sanitari, o tecnici in senso lato, il problema cessa di essere ‘tecnico’ e resta solo il suo aspetto politico.

Fatto si è che i governi europei stanno diventando sempre più impopolari.

* * * * * * *


Vaccine Skeptics Slammed Across Europe as Omicron Rages.

From Boris Johnson to Emmanuel Macron, EU leaders are increasingly attacking anti-vaxxers as the battle against the rapidly spreading omicron variant worsens pandemic fatigue in the region.

Amid a seemingly unstoppable rise in infections, authorities are focusing restrictions on unvaccinated people rather than resorting to widespread crackdowns. The strong overall uptake of inoculations encouraged leaders to go more aggressively after holdouts, prompting them to roll up their sleeves.

French President Macron took the rhetoric to a new level this week when he said his government’s strategy was to ‘piss off’ those who refused the shots. In the UK, Johnson accused anti-vaccines of spreading “nonsense.” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who supports the obligation to shoot with bullets, called the anti-vax movement “a tiny minority of reckless extremists”.

As the pandemic enters its third year and around 70% of Europe is fully vaccinated, leaders are betting they have popular support for the approach.

Across the continent, coercion politics are becoming the order of the day, with many governments trying to make life difficult for those who refuse a vaccine and brush aside concerns about civil liberties.

Macron, who faces a difficult re-election campaign this spring, is banking on the support of millions of people desperate to leave the pandemic behind. Some 77% of the population is fully vaccinated, according to government figures, placing it squarely on the side of the majority.

On Friday, he kept his words, saying it “was my responsibility to sound the alarm”.

France is tightening restrictions on unvaccinated people, seeking to implement a vaccine pass to access bars and restaurants, or even travel by train.

Neighboring Italy on Wednesday made gunfire mandatory for people over 50, although the € 100 ($ 113) fine for non-compliance was deliberately kept low.

In Austria, the unvaccinated are banned from most areas of life, including non-essential shopping, hotels and restaurants, although enforcement is patchy. The country also wants to make vaccines mandatory for everyone from next month, although implementation may be delayed due to issues with the electronic vaccine registry.

Germany, Europe’s largest economy, is already in what some officials have called “containment of the unvaccinated”, with limits on access to theaters and other leisure activities.

Authorities on Friday created an even bigger hurdle, requiring negative tests in non-essential restaurants and stores for those fully vaccinated. Only those who have had boosters have hassle-free access.

“Anyone who hasn’t been immunized is putting themselves at risk,” Scholz said.

The controversy over such measures found a new global flashpoint this week when world tennis No.1 Novak Djokovic was denied entry to Australia for the Australian Open. This followed anger over the decision to grant the Serbian player an exemption to play without proof of vaccination.

European governments – unable to stop, or even slow, the spread of infections – are focusing on the unvaccinated as part of efforts to protect their health services from overcrowding.

Although vaccines do not completely stop transmission, research suggests that they reduce the risk of severe symptoms of omicron. That should mean less pressure on hospitals, many of which are already overcrowded, in part because of staff shortages due to the disease.

Data in the UK shows a much higher hospitalization rate among those who have not received a vaccine.

While Johnson has said he is in favor of a voluntary approach to vaccinations, this week his frustration with anti-vaccines has boiled over.

“I mean the anti-vaxx activists, the people who put this gibberish on social media, they are dead wrong,” he said. In view of the ongoing “tragedy”, “it is time for me and the government to call them out on what they are doing.”

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Unione Europea

Eurostat. Nov21. Prezzi della Produzione Industriale, PPI, +23.7% nella EU.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-01-09.

2022-01-08__ Eurostat 001

Eurostat. November 2021 compared with October 2021. Industrial producer prices up by 1.8% in the euro area and by 2.0% in the EU. Up by 23.7% in both the euro area and the EU compared with November 2020.

In November 2021, industrial producer prices rose by 1.8% in the euro area and by 2.0% in the EU, compared with October 2021, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In October 2021, prices increased by 5.4% in the euro area and by 5.0% in the EU.

2022-01-08__ Eurostat 002

                         Monthly comparison by main industrial grouping and by Member State

Industrial producer prices in the euro area in November 2021, compared with October 2021, increased by 3.5% in the energy sector, by 1.5% for intermediate goods, by 0.6% for non-durable consumer goods, by 0.5% for durable consumer goods and by 0.4% for capital goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy increased by 0.9%.

In the EU, industrial producer prices increased by 4.5% in the energy sector, by 1.5% for intermediate goods, by 0.6% for durable and for non-durable consumer goods and by 0.4% for capital goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy increased by 1.0%.

The highest monthly increases in industrial producer prices were recorded in Denmark (+10.3%), Bulgaria (+8.5%) and Romania (+7.3%), while the only decrease was observed in Ireland (-2.5%).

                         Annual comparison by main industrial grouping and by Member State

Industrial producer prices in the euro area in November 2021, compared with November 2020, increased by 66.0% in the energy sector, by 18.3% for intermediate goods, by 4.7% for durable consumer goods, by 4.4% for capital goods and by 3.8% for non-durable consumer goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy increased by 9.8%.

In the EU, industrial producer prices increased by 64.9% in the energy sector, by 18.6% for intermediate goods, by 5.2% for durable consumer goods, by 4.6% for capital goods and by 4.2% for non-durable consumer goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy increased by 10.1%.

The industrial producer prices increased in all Member States, with the highest yearly increases being registered in Ireland (+87.9%), Denmark (+51.7%) and Romania (+40.4%).

* * * * * * *

Significativamente, Eurostat riporta i dati senza commentarli.

Annualizzando, tra Nov21 ed Oct21 vi è un incremento di 1.8 punti percentuali: a fine anno 2022 l’incremento dovrebbe quindi essere di 21.6 punti percentuali, ossia il PPI dell’Europa dovrebbe arrivare ad essere il 45.3%. Ma l’incremento medio è nei fatti molto maggiore di 1.8 punti percentuali.

«In October 2021, prices increased by 5.4% in the euro area and by 5.0% in the EU»

Pena il fallimento delle imprese, questi aumenti si riverbereranno sui prezzi al consumo, innescando una perfetta spirale inflattiva.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Unione Europea

Eurozona. Dec21. Inflazione al 5% anno su anno. – Flash Estimate.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-01-10.

2022-01-10__ Eurostat 001

Questi sono dati provvisori.

2022-01-10__ Eurostat 002

* * * * * * *

Eurostat. Euro area annual inflation up to 5.0%.

Flash estimate – December 2021. Euro area annual inflation up to 5.0%.

Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 5.0% in December 2021, up from 4.9% in November according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, energy is expected to have the highest annual rate in December (26.0%, compared with 27.5% in November), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (3.2%, compared with 2.2% in November), non-energy industrial goods (2.9%, compared with 2.4% in November) and services (2.4%, compared with 2.7% in November).

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Nostradamus. 2022 anno terrifico. Ma nessuno cita la previsione apocalittica.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-01-08.

2022-01-08__ Nostradamus 001

Ci apprestiamo a parlare delle previsioni di Nostradamus per il solo fatto che il web ne pullula e qualche precisazione potrebbe essere utile.

Intanto, chiamarle ‘profezie‘ è improprio.

Per profezia si intende

«Predizione di eventi futuri, derivante da ispirazione divina, come tale presente in tutta la storia delle religioni; nell’ambito della tradizione veterotestamentaria, annuncio della volontà di Jahvè, manifestazione, attraverso un profeta, dei disegni divini e dei destini del popolo d’Israele»

Previsione sarebbe molto meglio.

Poi. Nostradamus si esprime in modo criptico, tranne rari versetti il significato è oscuro, e le spiegazione posteriori sono sempre arbitrarie.

* * * * * * *

Nostradamus, terribile profezia per il 2022: cosa succederà.

L’astrologo francese Nostradamus ha previsto 6 catastrofi nel 2022: tra guerre, rivolte e crisi ecco le profezie che ci aspettano… Anche in Italia

«Il libro ‘Profezie’ rappresenta l’opera più grande dell’astrologo e speziale francese: è diviso per secoli e composto di centinaia di quartine che presagiscono eventi catastrofici. Per il 2022 si cita la decima quartina del terzo secolo: “Di sangue e fame maggiore calamità / Sette volte appreste alla spiaggia marina/ Monech di fame, luogo preso, prigionia”.

Guerre e immigrazione caratterizzeranno il prossimo anno con l’invasione di spiagge europee da parte dei più disperati. Per l’Italia potrebbe significare che il fenomeno degli sbarchi a cui siamo già abituati potrebbe raggiungere dimensioni mai viste.

Questa grave crisi internazionale si rifletterà negativamente sul vecchio Continente di cui Nostradamus ha previsto la caduta: “I templi sacri del primo stile romano / Rifiuteranno le fondamenta della Dea”. L’Unione Europea è nata con il trattato di Roma del 1957 e sembra che a causa non solo della Brexit ma anche dell’instabilità politica si sfalderà.

Focus su Parigi che – stando a Nostradamus –  sarà presa d’assalto e messa a ferro e fuoco. La trentesima quartina del quinto secolo recita: “Tutt’intorno alla grande Città / Saranno i soldati alloggiati dai campi e dalle città”.

Soldati e assediamenti si ripresentano anche nella profezia del 2022 legata alla crisi climatica. Potrebbe trattarsi di un presagi di guerra legata alla mancanza di materie prime e risorse: “Sotto il clima babilonese opposto / Grande sarà senza effusione”.

Le profezie di Nostradamus legate all’anno che sta per arrivare chiudono con un terribile terremoto in Giappone (“Verso la mezza siccità estrema / Nella profondità dell’Asia diranno terremoto”) e la morte del dittatore della Corea del Nord Kim Jong-Un (“L’improvvisa morte del primo personaggio / Porterà un cambiamento e potrà porre un altro personaggio nel regno”).»

* * * * * * *

A nostro personale punto di vista, Nostradamus è financo troppo ottimista sull’anno 2022.

Ma nessuno cita quella che a nostro sommesso parere è la più grande previsione di Nostradamus.

Con l’anno 2025 cessano le sue previsioni. Fine del mondo così come lo conosciamo.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime, Unione Europea

Carbone. Newcastle future impennato a 193 Usd per tonnellata.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-01-07.

2022-01-07__ Coal 001

«Newcastle coal futures continued to rally to $190 per metric ton in the first week of January, the highest since early November, after Indonesia, the world’s biggest exporter of thermal coal, announced it will ban exports of coal in January, aiming to secure supply to domestic power plants. The Indonesian government had pledged to review the ban on Wednesday but talks were postponed although many companies do not want the ban to continue as the costs of having scores of ships stranded offshore are very high. The ban prompted a global rise in coal prices to start 2022 and could go even higher, as imports to China, Japan, India and South Korea account for 73% of coal exports from Indonesia. Meanwhile, many European countries started using more coal as the power crunch continues and natural gas prices remain elevated. In 2021, coal gained nearly 110% on strong demand and limited supplies.»

* * * * * * *

Ma le tensioni sono su tutte le materia prime.

TTF Gas  +399.93%, UK Gas a +212.76% anno su anno.

Cobalto +93.15%, Brent +47.56% anno su anno.