Pubblicato in: Geopolitica Europea, Unione Europea

Austria. Italia e duplice passaporto per l’Alto Adige.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-10-15.

Animali. Bocca aperta. Civetta. 001

Negli ultimi tempi l’Austria ha ventilato l’ipotesi di concedere il proprio passaporto ai madrelingua tedescchi che vivono nel Sud Tirolo Italiano, in quello che noi denominiamo Alto Adige.

Cerchiamo di fare un pochino di chiarezza su di un tema che ben si presterebbe ad equivoci.

Il problema del duplice passaporto è in parte sostenuto dal diverso significato che ogni stato attribuisce a questa tipologia di documento.

Treccani riporta che il passaporto sarebbe il «documento (in Italia rilasciato dal ministero degli Esteri e per sua delega dalla questura) che dà la facoltà al cittadino di uno stato di allontanarsi dal territorio nazionale per entrare in quello di un altro stato o di più altri stati, consistente in un libretto con la fotografia e i dati anagrafici e di riconoscimento del titolare».

Se è del tutto intuitivo il suo uso funzionale come documento di riconoscimento, i suoi altri aspetti sono qui definiti solo formalmente.

Se è vero che il passaporto abilita a lasciare liberamente lo stato emittente, non significa minimamente che abiliti all’ingresso in altri stati.

Se è vero che il passaporto è il documento atto all’espatrio, altrettanto vero sarebbe il ricordare come esso sia necessario ma non cero sufficiente, essendo richiesto il preventivo rilascio del visto di ingresso. Ma il visto di ingresso è rilasciato da un’autorità statale diversa da quella che ha emesso il passaporto, e che ha sue leggi e costumanze. Per esempio, serve il visto di ingresso per entrare negli Stati Uniti oppure in Russia od in Cina.

Se il visto turistico è solitamente rilasciato senza troppi controlli e per tempi limitati, il visto permanente o di maggiore durata è usualmente di ben difficile acquisizione.

Un altro problema  risiede nel fatto che ogni singolo stato nazionale, ossia autorità competente al rilascio dei passaporti, attribuisce un significato suo proprio al termine “cittadino“.

Il concetto stesso di ‘cittadinanza‘ implica come il cittadino sia soggetto alle leggi e costumanze dello stato cui pertiene. Ma ogni stato ha delle sue proprie legislazioni che definiscono i termini sia di cittadino, sia di cittadinanza, sia di capacità a vedersi conferito il passaporto. In altri termini, non è un processo automatico.

In molti stati l’aver ricevuto una certa quale tipologia di condanna non priva della cittadinanza, ma prevede il ritiro del passaporto. In altri stati solo alcune categorie di cittadine possono accedere al passaporto. E così via.

Vi sono poi molti stati che possono rilasciare passaporti anche a persone cittadine di altri stati. La Russia si riserva, per esempio, questa possibilità: a discrezione del Presidente si può concedere la doppia cittadinanza e, quindi, il doppio passaporto.

Poi ci sono situazioni alquanto naif.

Per un miserabile milione di euro si può ottenere il passaporto maltese, che permette a chi ne beneficia di viaggiare senza bisogno di alcun visto in 166 paesi del mondo. La Valletta garantisce il passaporto anche ai parenti più stretti e la cittadinanza per il consorte o per i propri figli costa tra i 25 mila euro e i 50 mila euro (a seconda che siano minorenni o maggiorenni). Per inciso, diventare cittadini maltesi implica entrare e circolare liberamente nell’Area Schengen, ossia in Europa. Cipro potrebbe essere un altro esempio, ma ce ne sono molti altri.

Saint-Kitts & Nevis, un microstaterello caraibico, ha fatto una fortuna vendendo i suoi passaporti, cittadinanza inclusa o meno, per una manciata di dollari americani. Saint-Kitts & Nevis chiede solo di avere almeno 18 anni e mezzi adeguati. «Dual citizenship is allowed, …. Visa-free travel over 150 countries (including the UK, the EU, and Brazil) …. No foreign income, capital gains, gift, and inheritance tax». Costa meno di un passaporto falso.

L’Austria, come prima detto, avrebbe dichiarato l’intenzione di rilasciare il suo passaporto anche agli alto adesini. Dr Peter Launsky-Tieffenthal aveva affermato che il progetto di legge sarebbe stato depositato a breve, entro il 7 settembre,  al parlamento austriaco, ma ad oggi esso non risulta ancora essere stato ufficializzato, per cui non si conoscono i contenuti esatti.

Da quanto è dato evincere dalla stampa, si tratterebbe solo di doppio passaporto senza intaccare i diritti di cittadinanza. Ma l’uso del condizionale è obbligatorio.

In ogni caso, sempre il Dr Peter Launsky-Tieffenthal aveva dichiarato che il testo di legge sarebbe stato preventivamente concordato con la Farnesina, nella persona del Ministro degli Esteri Enzo Moavero Milanesi.

Annunci
Pubblicato in: Armamenti, Geopolitica Europea, Geopolitica Militare, Russia, Unione Europea

Russia. Kulikovo, Kaliningrad, ospiterebbe un arsenale atomico russo.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-06-25.

2018-06-21__Kalinigrad__001

Kulikovo è un nome sacro per la Russia.

L’8 settembre 1380 i russi guidati dal Granduca di Vladimir, Dmitrij Ivanovič di Mosca, sconfissero l’armata dell’Orda d’Oro con gli alleati lituani. Fu l’inizio di una lunga guerra di liberazione che terminò con la battaglia sull’Ugra, un secolo dopo.

Nessuna sorpresa quindi che quando la Prussia Orientale passò nel 1945 da tedesca a russa con il nome di Circondariato Federale Nordoccidentale, Oblast di Kaliningrad, nella ridenominazione dei paesi e delle cittadine una avesse assunto il glorioso nome di Kulikovo.

L’Oblast di Kaliningrad è altamente strategico. È l’estrema punta occidentale della Russia ed i suoi porti non ghiacciano durante l’inverno: sono infatti sede della Flotta del Baltico. Con l’acuirsi dei dissensi tra occidentali e russi, quell’area strategica è stata riarmata.

Una cosa è certa. Se in passato gli occidentali trovarono una buona ragione per andare a morire per Danzica, oggi i russi ne hanno altrettanta per andare a morire per Kaliningrad.

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Mar Baltico. Ancora tensioni tra Russia, Nato ed Unione Europea.

Russia. Schierati gli Iskander a Kaliningrad. Hanno svegliato l’orso che dormiva.

La Russia vuole essere rispettata. Un articolo della Bbc che fa pensare

Russia Aims Missiles At Europe? Moscow Bolsters Air Defense System In Baltic Region Near Poland

Kaliningrad. Zeppo di missili atomici adesso anche black hole.

Kaliningrad. Adesso il buco nero inizia a preoccupare la Nato.

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«The anti-aircraft systems, which have a range of 400 km, will then be deployed to secure the air space along Russia’s north-western border»

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«Lanciabile da una piattaforma mobile, l’Iskander viaggia a mach 6.2 – è ipersonico -: in tre o quattro minuti primi arriva da Kaliningrad a Berlino. Quasi nemmeno il tempo di poter dare l’allarme. …. Può portare testate convenzionali ma anche una bomba termonucleare da 50 kTon»

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«During flight it can maneuver at different altitudes and trajectories and can turn at up to 20 to 30 G to evade anti-ballistic missiles»

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2018-06-21__Kalinigrad__002

Chiariti questi elementi di base, entriamo nel merito.

La Federation of American Scientists (FAS) ha rilasciato un documento che suggerirebbe quanto segue.

«Russia may have significantly upgraded its nuclear bunker in Kaliningrad»

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«The photos reportedly showed that Russia may have modernized the nuclear weapons storage bunker which is located in a sensitive enclave of Russian territory which is between Poland and the Baltics.»

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«one of three underground bunkers at the location was excavated and deepened before it appeared to have been covered over in recent months, “presumably to return (to) operational status soon.”»

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Il problema è drammaticamente semplice.

Usualmente le superpotenze atomiche schierano i loro arsenali nucleari molto addentro i loro territori: chiaro indizio di quanto essi costituiscano elemento deterrente, di difesa.

Ma i missili balistici intercontinentali sono abbastanza facilmente rilevabili dai radar avversi e, soprattutto, con un margine di tempo sufficiente per mettere in atto tutte le opportune contromisure. I sistemi anti – missile da ambo le parti sono riferiti in grado di abbattere un buon numero di testate in arrivo.

L’introduzione di missili a corto raggio ma ipersonici ha cambiato le esigenze dello scacchiere.

Lanciabili da mezzi mobili, i missili ipersonici arriverebbero sul bersaglio in tempi così ristretti da rendere impossibile l’attivazione dei sistemi anti – missile. Non solo. Ma gli attuali sistemi radar e missili – antimissile non sarebbero in grado di intercettarli.

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Sapere che l’Oblast di Kaliningrad rigurgita di questi missili e che a Kulikovo sono stati costruiti grandiosi depositi per armamenti nucleari non concorrerebbe a lasciar fare soni tranquilli.


Fas. 2018-06-19. Russia Upgrades Nuclear Weapons Storage Site In Kaliningrad

During the past two years, the Russian military has carried out a major renovation of what appears to be an active nuclear weapons storage site in the Kaliningrad region, about 50 kilometers from the Polish border.

A Digital Globe satellite image purchased via Getty Images, and several other satellite images viewable on TerraServer, show one of three underground bunkers near Kulikovo being excavated in 2016, apparently renovated, and getting covered up again in 2018 presumably to return operational status soon.

The site was previously upgraded between 2002 and 2010 when the outer security perimeter was cleared. I described this development in my report on U.S. and Russian non-strategic nuclear weapons from 2012.

The latest upgrade obviously raises questions about what the operational status of the site is. Does it now, has it in the past, or will it in the future store nuclear warheads for Russian dual-capable non-strategic weapon systems deployed in the region? If so, does this signal a new development in Russian nuclear weapons strategy in Kaliningrad, or is it a routine upgrade of an aging facility for an existing capability? The satellite images do not provide conclusive answers to these questions. The Russian government has on numerous occasions stated that all its non-strategic nuclear warheads are kept in “central” storage, a formulation normally thought to imply larger storage sites further inside Russia. So the Kulikovo site could potentially function as a forward storage site that would be supplied with warheads from central storage sites in a crisis.

The features of the site suggest it could potentially serve Russian Air Force or Navy dual-capable forces. But it could also be a joint site, potentially servicing nuclear warheads for both Air Force, Navy, Army, air-defense, and costal defense forces in the region. It is to my knowledge the only nuclear weapons storage site in the Kaliningrad region. Despite media headlines, the presence of nuclear-capable forces in that area is not new; Russia deployed dual-capable forces in Kaliningrad during the Cold War and has continued to do so after. But nearly all of those weapon systems have recently been, or are in the process of being modernized. The Kulikovo site site is located:

– About 8 kilometers (5 miles) miles from the Chkalovsk air base (54.7661°, 20.3985°), which has been undergoing major renovation since 2012 and hosts potentially dual-capable strike aircraft.

– About 27 kilometers (16 miles) from the coastal-defense site near Donskoye (54.9423°, 19.9722°), which recently switched from the SSC-1B Sepal to the P-800 Bastion coastal-defense system. The Bastion system uses the SS-N-26 (3M-55, Yakhont) missile, that U.S. Intelligence estimates is “nuclear possible.”

– About 35 kilometers (22 miles) from the Baltic Sea Fleet base at Baltiysk (54.6400°, 19.9175°), which includes nuclear-capable submarines, destroyers, frigates, and corvettes.

– About 96 kilometers (60 miles) from the 152nd Detachment Missile Brigade at Chernyakovsk (54.6380°, 21.8266°), which has recently been upgraded from the SS-21 SRBM to the SS-26 (Islander) SRBM. Unlike other SS-26 bases, however, Chernyakovsk has not (yet) been added a new missile storage facility.

– Near half a dozen S-300 and S-400 air-defense units deployed in the region. The 2018 NPR states that Russian’s air-defense forces are dual-capable. These sites are located 20 kilometers (13 miles) to 98 kilometers (60 miles) from the storage site.

So there are many potential clients for the Kulikovo nuclear weapons storage site. Similar upgrades have been made to other Russian nuclear weapons storage sites over the base decade, including for the Navy’s nuclear submarine base on the Kamchatka peninsula. There are also ongoing upgrades to other weapons storage sites in the Kaliningrad region, but they do not appear to be nuclear.

The issue of Russian non-strategic nuclear weapons has recently achieved new attention because of the Trump administration’s Nuclear Posture Review, which accused Russia of increasing the number and types of its non-strategic nuclear weapons. The Review stated Russia has “up to 2,000” non-strategic nuclear weapons, indirectly confirming FAS’ estimate.

NATO has for several years urged Russia to move its nuclear weapons further back from NATO borders. With Russia’s modernization of its conventional forces, there should be even less, not more, justification for upgrading nuclear facilities in Kaliningrad.

Pubblicato in: Geopolitica Europea, Russia, Unione Europea

Putin in Austria. Tempi che mutano.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-06-05.

Austria. Vienna. 001

Al momento di scrivere l’articolo, l’unico giornale italiano che riporta della visita di Mr Putin in Austria sarebbe il Sole 24 Ore

«Non è nostro obiettivo dividere niente o nessuno in Europa: al contrario, vogliamo vedere un’Europa unita e prospera, perché l’Unione Europea è il nostro principale partner commerciale ed economico. Più problemi ha, più rischi e incertezze abbiamo anche noi ….»

ci rendiamo perfettamente conto che per ciascun Paese dell’Unione Europea, preso singolarmente, è abbastanza complicato parlarne. Ma tutto quanto avviene in questo ambito non ci impedisce di sviluppare le nostre relazioni con l’Austria»

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Ampio invece il risalto dato dalla stampa estera, che riportiamo nei titoli e negli incipit.

Putin pushes for end to ‘harmful’ sanctions during Austria visit [The Guardia]

«Notionally scheduled to commemorate 50 years since Austria became the first western European country to sign a natural gas deal with the Soviet Union, the visit also offered the Russian and Austrian leaders opportunities to advance their respective geopolitical agendas, with a youthful Kurz, 32, pushing his credentials as a bridge builder between east and west.»

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Putin denies trying to divide Europe ahead of visit to Austria where he is accused of funding far-Right [The Telegraph]

«President Vladimir Putin on Monday downplayed suggestions Russia was seeking to disrupt the European Union’s cohesion, saying it was in his country’s interests for the bloc to remain “united and prosperous”.

“We have an interest in an EU that’s united and prosperous, since the EU is our most important commercial and economic partner,” Putin told Austria’s ORF television a day before an official visit to Vienna.»

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Putin says he wants to build bridges with Europe. Others see a wedge [Cnn]

«Russian President Vladimir Putin visits Austria on Tuesday, and he says he wants to build bridges to Europe.

Some fear he seeks to drive a wedge in it.

The official reason for the trip, Putin’s first foreign visit since he won a landslide re-election in March, is for talks with Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz and President Alexander Van der Bellen. Trade and economic cooperation are at the top of the agenda: Putin is slated to attend a meeting with Russian and Austrian business representatives to discuss investment opportunities and economic cooperation.

But the Kremlin leader is looking for an opening to a Europe that is witnessing a rise of right-wing, populist governments, with a clear aim of easing sanctions and ending Russia’s political isolation.

Austria is an interesting case in point. Late last year, a new coalition government took power in Vienna that includes the far-right Freedom Party as a junior partner.

Heinz-Christian Strache, Austria’s vice chancellor and leader of the Freedom Party, is an opponent of sanctions, which were imposed by the European Union and the US over Russia’s annexation of the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea in 2014.

In a recent interview with the newspaper Oesterreich, Strache made his position clear.

“It is high time to put an end to these exasperating sanctions and normalize political and economic relations with Russia,” he said.

The Austrian government has also done another major favor for Putin. It opted not to join over 20 other countries in expelling Russian diplomats over the March 4 nerve agent attack against Russian former spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter, Yulia Skripal, in Salisbury, England.

That’s raised questions in Austria about the real agenda for Putin’s visit.»

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Austria welcomes Putin but rebuffs his call for sanctions to be lifte

«Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Austria on Tuesday in his first trip to the West since being re-elected to the Kremlin and was rebuffed when he called for European Union sanctions to be lifted.

Austria, where a coalition of conservatives and the pro-Putin far right is in power, has a history of neutrality and relatively warm ties with Moscow.

It came in for criticism from its allies for being among the minority of EU member countries that did not expel any Russian diplomats over the poisoning of the former Russian double agent Sergei Skripal. ….

Chancellor Sebastian Kurz, whose conservatives control EU policy, repeated that Vienna would not break ranks with the rest of the bloc, which says the situation in eastern Ukraine must improve before sanctions can be lifted.

His Austrian trip is a rare and symbolic foray to the West for a man often at odds with Western governments over issues such as Syria and Ukraine. His last bilateral trip to Western Europe was to Finland last July.

Austria, which takes over the European Union’s rotating presidency in July, says it wants to act as a “bridge-builder” between east and west.

It has forged friendly ties with nationalist leaders like Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.»

Dalla lettura della stampa ci si formerebbe l’opinione che

«That’s raised questions in Austria about the real agenda for Putin’s visit.»

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Geopolitica Europea, Unione Europea

Unione Europea si disgrega per devoluzione dell’ideologia liberal. – Spiegel.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-05-31.

2018-05-28__Spiegel__001

Il problema può essere visto nella sua enorme complessità oppure nella sua semplice struttura: due punti di vista egualmente validi, ma finalizzati a differenti scopi.

Da quasi due decenni in Occidente è incorso la devoluzione dell’ideologia liberal e, di conseguenza, socialista. Questo fenomeno è evidente dai risultati elettorali, specie poi quelli degli ultimi due anni.

Occorrerebbe però fare una grande attenzione a non confondere le cause con gli effetti.

Queste ideologie stanno crollando sotto il peso delle loro contraddizioni interne: non riescono a comprendere le realtà emergenti, propongono soluzioni obsolete e quindi inconsistenti, mentre la situazione continua a sfuggir loro di mano.

Per meglio spiegarci, consideriamo questa fatidica frase di Hegel:

«se i fatti contraddicono la teoria, tanto peggio per i fatti».

Ma alla fine la realtà travolge, e porta i sistemi alla implosione. Proprio come successe a suo tempo per l’Unione Sovietica. Ma la storia ai più serve al massimo per riconoscere che è stato fatto un errore già vissuto.

Si apre quindi un periodo storico turbolento. Il vecchio non vuol cedere un passo ed il nuovo non ha ancora acquisito la forza necessaria per imporsi: sono i periodi più bui della storia. Né ci si illuda che a ribaltamento terminato le cose siano immediatamente facili: se è vero che nel maggio 1945 i cannoni finalmente tacquero, ci volle molto tempo perché si potessero vedere i frutti di una pacifica riedificazione.

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La grande tentazione cui liberal e socialisti sembrerebbero non saper resistere consiste nel confondere le cause che hanno generato il ‘populismo’ in Occidente con il ‘populismo’ stesso.

Imputano ai populisti vittorie elettorali che li stanno emarginando dallo scenario politico, mentre invece è l’Elettorato che li ha abbandonati. I ‘populisti’ stanno soltanto occupando gli spazi che essi hanno abbandonato.

Uno sguardo alla tabella in cimosa è eloquente. I socialisti tedeschi della Spd, che in passato raggiunsero il 40% dei suffragi, nelle elezioni del 24 settembre 2017 conseguirono il 20.5% ed ad oggi sono quotati 16.5%. Giusto un solo punto percentuale sopra AfD, che si è conquistata un 15.5% senza far nulla: aspetta soltanto che gli errori dei liberal diano i loro frutti elettorali. E verosimilmente, continuando codesto trend, a breve AfD sarà il secondo partito tedesco.

Europa. La devoluzione del socialismo ideologico. – Spiegel.

Devoluzione del socialismo ideologico. – Eu Observer.

Devoluzione dell’idealismo liberal e socialista. Cahiers de doléances.

Unione Europea. Non stiamo arrivando. Siamo arrivati.

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Liberal e socialisti ideologici hanno fatto dell’Unione Europea vista come stato e della loro visione etica una sorta di religione di stato, in accordo alla quale chiunque non la pensasse come loro vorrebbero sarebbe solo ed esclusivamente un eretico, da bruciare sul rogo.

Per loro l’avversario politico è il nemico incombente, da demonizzare per sostenere il morale alle truppe, da temere per una sua vittoria segnerebbe la loro morte politica.

Ma questa posizione mentale altro non fa che portare mulino proprio alle forze che temono.

Germania. Non è povera. È misera. – Financial Times.

Se il Financial Times è impietoso, pur essendo chiaramente liberal, Eurostat è spietato.

File:At-risk-of-poverty rate after social transfers by most frequent activity status, 2015 (%) YB17

In Germania il 17.1% della popolazione vive in povertà, percentuale che si innalza al 69.1% nei disoccupati.

Ma Destatis, l’Istituto di statistica tedesco, è ancor più crudele. Se in Germania sono classificati come ‘occupati‘ 44.432 milioni di persone, solo 32.732 milioni di esse sono soggette ai contributi sociali. Dodici milioni hanno Miniarbeit o lavori saltuari: serve un coraggio leonino per cercare di gabellarli come “occupati“.

Ebbe, ci sarebbe forse da stupirsi che l’Spd stia perdendo consensi e che Alternative für Deutschland stia crescendo giorno dopo giorno?

Senza far nulla per risolvere codesti problemi AfD arriverà al governo: qualcuno alla fine dovrà ben occuparsi anche della povera gente. Povera, sicuramente, ma che costituisce larga fetta dell’Elettorato.

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Chiediamoci adesso per quale motivo lo Spiegel, portavoce dei liberal socialisti, sia così preoccupato per il nuovo governo italiano.

«Two populist parties are set to take over the government reins in Italy and about the only thing they seem to agree on is their desire to spend huge amounts of money»

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«Rome Opens Its Gates to the Modern Barbarians» [Financial Times]

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«That’s bad news for Italian finances and terrible news for the eurozone»

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Già. Parole profetiche.

I barbari sono quelli che fecero cadere l’Impero Romano e resero schiavi i latini prima dominanti. E non ebbero per nulla la mano leggera: forse che non ci si ricordano le storie di Ammiano Marcellino?

Sicuramente notizie cattive per l’Italia, ma altrettanto sicuramente “terrible news for the eurozone“.

Allo Spiegel non interessa un bel nulla l’Italia: i suoi articolisti pensano soltanto a salvare la loro miserabile pelle: ben conoscono la fine che fecero i giacobini.

Ci si prepari a celebrarne le esequie.


Spiegel. 2018-05-26. Italy’s New Goverment Is Bad News for the Euro

Two populist parties are set to take over the government reins in Italy and about the only thing they seem to agree on is their desire to spend huge amounts of money. That’s bad news for Italian finances and terrible news for the eurozone.

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Signor Fabio doesn’t think it will take long. The new Italian government, he believes, is destined for a brief tenure: “In September, we will be voting again,” says the slender man in the center of Rome. Signor Fabio is the giornalaio — or newsstand proprietor — with the most attractive kiosk location in the capital, situated as it is fewer than 100 meters from the prime minister’s office. He knows what’s going on in the world and that people are once again looking to his homeland with concern.

“Rome Opens Its Gates to the Modern Barbarians,” was the headline chosen by the Financial Times 10 days ago in an editorial about the new government, which pairs the Five Star Movement (M5S) under the leadership of Luigi Di Maio with the right-wing nationalist party Lega, led by Matteo Salvini. But Italian papers weren’t any less critical. The daily Il Manifesto went with the headline “Populandia,” in reference to the populist natures of the two parties. “The Third Republic Is Formed as the Whole World Laughs,” wrote Il Foglio. And Libero wrote: “Mattarella Chooses the Rotten Apple: Mini-Premier Conte.”

The latter is a reference to Salvini’s and Di Maio’s inability to agree on which of the two should become prime minister, so they chose the completely inexperienced law professor Giuseppe Conte. While he is closely connected to the Five Star Movement, Conte has never held public office — and now he is being asked to lead Europe’s third largest economy, with a population of 60 million people.

This government, the 67th in the last 70 years, is perhaps the most unusual and least experienced of them all. At the top are two populists who are critical of the EU and friendly to Russia, two coalition partners who share few joint political goals and whose supporters hate each other. The one party, Lega, draws the majority of its support from the wealthy north while the other, M5S, has its roots in the comparatively poor south.

“It’s like if Germany were governed by Sahra Wagenknecht (from the Left Party) and Alexander Gauland (from the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany),” says Markus Ferber, vice-chair of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs in European Parliament and a member of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats.

Making the Problems Worse

The difference being, of course, that Italy holds 2.3 trillion euros in sovereign debt, the equivalent of 132 percent of its gross domestic product — a debt ratio that is only exceeded within the EU by Greece. In addition, the country is still suffering from the consequences of the financial crisis, including high unemployment, particularly among young people, and it is struggling to deal with the strain of the thousands of migrants who are still streaming across the Mediterranean to Italy.

The country has been among the EU’s problem children for years. As such, the election victory by the populists is hardly surprising, rather it is the logical consequence of the problems facing the country. But at the same time, it has the potential to make those problems much worse.

To satisfy the desires of their vastly different constituencies, Salvini and Di Maio included tax cuts, a minimum basic income and the retraction of the recently passed pension reform in their coalition agreement. According to the calculations of Carlo Cottarelli, a former director of the Fiscal Affairs Department, these measures will cost at least 109 billion euros per year.

Jörg Krämer, chief economist at Germany’s Commerzbank, warns that if the new government pushes through its proposals, the country’s budget deficit, which currently stands at 2.3 percent of GDP, would spike to fully 7 percent.

The two parties refer to their coalition agreement as the “Contract for the Government of Change,” but in actuality, it is a blueprint for destroying state finances. And the consequences for Europe will be impossible to ignore. “The eurozone is threatened by a new crisis,” says Clemens Fuest of the Center for Economic Studies in Munich.

Concern is particularly high in Brussels, but officials there are avoiding direct criticism for the time being, likely in the hope that things won’t ultimately turn out as bad as expected. At an economics conference on Thursday, European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovski was asked if the new government’s program would comply with the Stability and Growth Pact, one of several questions about Italy. The Latvian looked visibly uncomfortable before finally replying: No, probably not. He added that he is particularly worried about rising risk premiums on the bond markets, a trend that has also affected other weaker eurozone member states. The prospect of countries not acting responsibly when it comes to fiscal policy has consequences, he said. It is important that all member states adhere to the rules that have been agreed to if they are part of the common currency area, he added.

French Economics and Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire is more direct. “If the new government takes the risk of not respecting its commitments on debt and the deficit … the financial stability of the eurozone will be threatened,” he told French broadcaster CNEWS last Sunday.

Death Knell

Indeed, even if the EU and the euro might have been able to withstand Grexit, an Italian departure from the common currency zone would likely be its death knell. Italy’s economic output is almost 10 times higher than that of Greece. “Given its systemic importance, the Italian economy is a source of potential spillovers to the rest of the euro area,” the EU warns in its most recent set of country-specific recommendations released on Wednesday of this week.

The recommendations, which are issued at regular intervals, recognize the efforts thus far undertaken by Italy to reduce its debt levels, but those efforts were all the product of the previous government. The new powers-that-be in Rome have left no doubt that they intend to focus their attentions elsewhere.

EU laws, says Lega head Salvini, will only be respected in the future if they are beneficial to Italy. And Di Maio of the Five Star Movement adds: “Starting now, the Italians come first and only then the negotiations about the deficit and EU rules.”

That approach is consistent with the intention to appoint 81-year-old economics professor Paolo Savona as economics and finance minister, a man who is considered a fierce critic of the euro. Savona’s new book, “Like a Nightmare, Like a Dream,” will soon be hitting the shelves. In it, he writes: “The euro is a straightjacket produced in Germany.” Berlin, he continues, “hasn’t changed its view of its role in Europe since the Nazi era.” Membership in the common currency area, Savona writes, “involves fascism without dictatorship and, from an economic perspective, a form of Nazism without militarism.”

One wonders whether the aging academic from Sardinia will repeat his verbose criticisms when he sits down with his German counterpart Olaf Scholz at the next European Union summit.

Di Maio’s people, of course, are doing their best to assuage fears of megalomaniacal populists driving Italy, a founding member of the EU, over a cliff. “We are in constant contact with the U.S and German embassies and we value complete transparency,” says one of Di Maio’s closest confidantes.

But such words are cold comfort. The advance of the populists, after all, is coming at a difficult time for the EU. The block is still enjoying solid economic growth, but a potential trade war with the United States is looming and the consequences of Brexit must likewise be overcome. A rekindling of the European trench political warfare that accompanied efforts to save Greece would be devastating.

Exactly that, though, appears to be on the horizon.

In the French elections one year ago, the feared victory of extremist, anti-Europeans did not come to pass. But right-wing populists are nevertheless on the march. They are the most powerful opposition party in Germany, they are part of the government in Austria and now they have joined the Italian government. “Our allies,” said Marine Le Pen, the head of the French right-wing party Front National, “are laying the groundwork for the great comeback of nation-states.”

‘Very Aggressive’

Italy will “become the leader of Europe’s populist, anti-establishment movement,” says Steve Bannon, Donald Trump’s former chief strategist, who is expected in Rome on Sunday. It marks the first time that Brussels will have to contend with an anti-system government in one of the EU’s founding countries. Bannon is excited about the triumph of Di Maio and Salvini, who are demanding that sanctions against Russia be wound down. “It’s very important for these guys to be very aggressive about confronting Brussels,” Bannon told the Washington Post this week.

Such an approach would almost certainly be popular in the country, where only 39 percent of Italians view the EU positively — not a good sign in what was once the most pro-EU country in the block. Part of the country’s frustrations with Brussels stems from the feeling of having been left alone to deal with the Mediterranean migrant crisis. In addition, many voters who have suffered from years of recession see the warnings from Brussels as heavy-handedness.


Part 2: A Potential Return of the Euro Crisis.

The fact that Italians, who traditionally have a high rate of savings, stand to suffer significant losses should the country withdraw from the eurozone is something neither M5S or Lega have addressed. The parties have also remained silent about the European Central Bank strategy — pursued by its Italian president, Mario Draghi — of buying hundreds of millions of euros worth of Italian sovereign bonds to prop up the country’s economy. On the contrary: an early draft of the coalition agreement demands that the ECB forgive 250 billion euros of debt.

“Fantapolitica,” is the term that reasonable Italians have adopted to refer to such demands: “fantasy politics.”

As it currently stands, Italy requires 200 billion euros of fresh borrowing each year to service old debts, says Klaus Regling, head of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the eurozone’s bailout fund. The fund has immediate access to 400 billion euros, meaning it could finance Italy for two years if need be. But only if no other eurozone country falls victim to the turbulence such a crisis would no doubt trigger.

But exactly that scenario is what has many people concerned, with pressure on Spain and Portugal likely to increase. The two countries have, to be sure, made progress in cleaning up their state finances, but they are still vulnerable, and their debt loads remain high.

Even if the Italians don’t proactively cease servicing their debts, they could still face trouble. Credit rating agencies already hold a dim view of Italy. Were they to downgrade Italy two additional levels, Italian bonds would reach junk status, meaning that many investment funds would be forced by their own regulations to dump them.

If mistrust and interest rates rise, Italian banks could once again find themselves in a dire situation. In the last 12 months, they have managed to reduce their risk exposure, but they are still sitting on billions of euros in bad loans. If the new government chooses to ignore these risks, the situation could rapidly spiral out of control.

Already, the interest rate difference between Italian and German sovereign bonds — the so-called risk premium — has risen significantly. In recent weeks, it has climbed by almost an entire percentage point. The difference reflects the higher risk of default for Italian bonds. Investors are only prepared to loan more money to Italy if they receive higher interest rates for their troubles.

Bailing Out Italy

Back in February, hedge funds already began speculating on falling European stock prices on the assumption that an anti-EU government in Rome could fragment the currency union. Bridgewater Associates, one of the largest sharks in the tank, placed a $22 billion bet against European stocks. The most recent wave of Italian sovereign bond sales was also likely driven by hedge fund speculation.

There is significant concern in many European capitals that the Conte government might operate under the assumption that Italy is too large and important for Europe to allow it to slide into bankruptcy and that European institutions would ultimately jump in to bail the country out. After all, roughly a third of Italy’s sovereign debt is held by foreign investors — a total of almost 800 billion euros. If a 50 percent debt haircut came to pass, as was done in the case of Greece, banks, insurance companies and pension funds would be forced to forego claims to 400 billion euros.

“The economic situation in the country has been highly explosive at least since the 2008 financial crisis,” says Henrik Enderlein, an economist at the Hertie School of Governance and an advisor to the German government. “But now a government is coming to power that is like a burning match and which could result in the situation getting out of control.”

The only thing left is to hope that this government of post-ideologists and right-wing populists will ultimately see the light — just as Alexis Tsipras did not long ago in Greece. “Leaving the common currency would be the worst-case scenario for Italy,” Enderlein warns. The country would sink into economic insignificance, he says, not unlike Argentina after its 2001 collapse.

European hopes are primarily focused on one person: Italian President Sergio Mattarella. “He will make sure that the new government adheres to European rules,” says a Brussels diplomat.

For most of the last three months, the 76-year-old lawyer has been patiently seeking to enable the assembly of a stable government and avoid new elections. And there is nothing he has left untried. He even held a face-to-face with Silvio Berlusconi, the man who paved the way for the rise of the populists and who led Italy into the crisis. Finally, though, the current coalition took shape, even if it looked for a time as though it was hopeless.

But even if Mattarella can prevent the worst — by refusing to sign certain laws, for example — he cannot prevent the political uncertainty from blocking a central EU reform project, that of reforming the economic and currency union.

Currently, Europe is waiting for the German response to French President Emmanuel Macron’s proposals, which he delivered eight months ago in a speech at the Sorbonne. Macron would like to see a joint eurozone budget and a common deposit insurance regime, among several other ideas.

Spending Even More

“The current developments in Rome are the death blow to Macron’s reform agenda,” says Commerzbank chief economist Krämer. Every step toward the collectivization of risk or debt, he says, “would be an open invitation for Italy to spend even more.”

Even if Macron is now carefully choosing his words and repeatedly saying he respects “the decision of the Italian people,” developments in Italy are, in fact, a significant setback for him and his reform proposals. He is caught between a Berlin that cannot seem to make up its mind and a Rome that is deeply skeptical of the EU. Realizing a vision of a unified, strong Europe won’t be easy with partners like that.

Concern is growing in the Élysée Palace in Paris that Europe is facing its next significant crisis and Macron, instead of pushing through his reform plans, will be forced to spend his time on damage control, not unlike his predecessors. “Salvini and Di Maio won’t achieve anything for Italy, but they will be in a position to completely block Europe,” says one of Macron’s advisers. The term “crazy,” the adviser says, would be a polite way of describing the new Italian government’s program.

The concerns are justified, particularly given the enormous resistance against Macron’s reform plans that already exists in German parliament. One element of those plans that is controversial is the “common backstop” envisioned as part of the banking union. The banking union envisions shareholders and creditors initially being made liable in the event of a bank collapse. Now, though, the use of the backstop — public money — is under discussion for extreme cases in which the costs of winding up a failed bank cannot otherwise be covered.

German politicians and others who oppose Macron’s vision fear that savings account holders could ultimately be made to pay for financial institution bankruptcies in countries like Italy. This fear has not been reduced by the anti-European rhetoric currently coming out of Rome. Indeed, the situation in Italy is not a good omen for the EU summit at the end of June, where heads of state and government intend to discuss a deepening of the eurozone.

Yet despite all of the justified concerns, it is also true that the coalition in Rome hasn’t actually entered office yet. The alliance with the aggressively anti-immigration party Lega is a controversial one within the Five Star Movement. “We have lost a few supporters along the way,” admits a spokesman for Di Maio. Furthermore, their parliamentary majority is just 30 seats. That isn’t much in a lawmaking body in which 206 representatives changed parties in just the last legislative session.

And should the new government suffer a premature demise — a fate which, Silvio Berlusconi insisted last week at the European People’s Party summit in Sofia, is one he would certainly hate to see — then the former Italian prime minister, now 81 years old, has a couple of thoughts on what should happen next.

In a good mood due to the recent decision by an Italian court to lift the ban on him holding public office, Berlusconi said he would be happy to do all it took to prevent a state crisis in Italy. And he would of course be prepared to “take on responsibility.”

Pubblicato in: Geopolitica Europea, Giustizia, Unione Europea

Afd porta la Bundeskanzlerin Frau Merkel davanti alla Suprema Corte.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-05-29.

Berlino Porta Brandemburgo

L’apertura incondizionata della frontiera da parte di Merkel nel 2015 è all’esame della Corte costituzionale federale di  Karlsruhe, Bundesverfassungsgericht.

Nella denuncia si prospetta che Frau Merkel avrebbe violato il diritto di partecipazione del Bundestag alla decisione di aprire le frontiere tedesche, ufficialmente difese dalla Costituzione. Sarebbe stata quindi un’azione non votata dal Parlamento.

«Wesentliche Entscheidungen, die das Gemeinwesen berührten, müssten im Parlament entschieden werden.»

Le decisioni importanti che riguardano tutta la collettività dovrebbero essere decise in parlamento.

Qualora Frau Merkel perdesse la causa intentatale, dovrebbe dare le dimissioni.

          


Der Bundestag. 2018-05-21. AfD klagt gegen Merkels Grenzöffnung. Bei Niederlage muss Sie zurücktreten!

homas Seitz – Die unbedingte Grenzöffnung durch Merkel im Jahre 2015 steht auf dem Prüfstand des Bundesverfassungsgerichts

Juristisch, hochspannend! Und vor allen Dingen auch politisch brisant, denn wenn Frau Merkel verliert, dann muss Sie zurücktreten! Die Koalition ist jetzt schon am Ende.

Mein Kommentar zur Woche in Berlin. Ihnen schöne Pfingsten.

Weitere Informationen über mich und meine politische Arbeit im Bundestag für Deutschland finden Sie unter: thomas-seitz.net


Welt. 2018-05-18. AfD zieht gegen Merkel vor Bundesverfassungsgericht

Die AfD hat in Karlsruhe eine Organklage gegen Merkels Flüchtlingspolitik eingereicht.

– Der Partei gehe es darum, die „Herrschaft des Unrechts“ feststellen zu lassen, sagte Justiziar Stephan Brandner.

 -Die Bundesregierung habe bei ihrer Einwanderungspolitik die Mitwirkungsrechte des Bundestags verletzt.

*                                                  

Die AfD zieht gegen die Flüchtlingspolitik von Angela Merkel (CDU) vor das Bundesverfassungsgericht. Die Bundestagsfraktion habe am 14. April eine Organklage in Karlsruhe eingereicht, sagte ihr Justiziar Stephan Brandner am Freitag in Berlin.

Der AfD gehe es darum, die „Herrschaft des Unrechts“ feststellen zu lassen. Die Bundesregierung habe bei ihrer Einwanderungspolitik die Mitwirkungsrechte des Bundestags verletzt, heißt es in der Klage.

Überprüft werden soll nach dem Willen der AfD Merkels Entscheidung von Anfang September 2015, die Grenze von Österreich nach Deutschland für Flüchtlinge offen zu halten und die Menschen nicht abzuweisen.

Brandner sagte: „Diese Klage kann die Welt verändern. Und sie wird die Welt verändern, wenn sie erfolgreich ist.“ Merkel müsse dann in „Nullkommanichts“ weg. Ob es zur Verhandlung kommt, ist noch offen.

Der zweite parlamentarische Geschäftsführer der AfD-Fraktion, Jürgen Braun, sagte, es gebe keine diktatorische Kanzlerin, auch sie habe sich an Recht und Gesetz zu halten. Wesentliche Entscheidungen, die das Gemeinwesen berührten, müssten im Parlament entschieden werden. Braun sprach mit Bezug auf die Politik der Grenzöffnung von einer „Herrschaft der Willkür und des Unrechts“, die nicht mit dem Grundgesetz vereinbar sei.

Auch CSU-Chef Horst Seehofer hatte Merkels Entscheidung als „Herrschaft des Unrechts“ bezeichnet. „Wir setzen um, was Seehofer angekündigt, aber nicht umgesetzt hat“, sagte Brandner. Seit Jahren herrsche ein Ausnahmezustand, es gehe um einen massiven Eingriff in die Rechte des Bundestags.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Geopolitica Europea, Unione Europea

Dagli atri muscosi, dai fori cadenti. ‘Far torto o patirlo’.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-05-14.

Bronzino Angelo. Ritratto di Lucrezia Panciatichi. 1541. Galleria degli Uffizi.

Bronzino Angelo. Ritratto di Lucrezia Panciatichi. 1541. Galleria degli Uffizi.


Dagli atri muscosi, dai fori cadenti. Legge Walter Zanardi.

*

Manzoni scrisse l’Adelchi nel 1822.

Due elementi son tuttora alquanto sottovalutati, talora ignoti.

L’Adelchi inaugurò lo stile letterario della tragedia che deve essere letta, non rappresentata. Troppi gli spunti, troppi i pensieri spesso delineati quasi con tratto impressionista, ma mai banalizzati. È poesia da meditarsi, da rileggersi, da ruminarla alla ricerca del punto cruciale, del bandolo della matassa. Leggere senza far tesoro di quanto letto equivarrebbe ad un subitaneo oblio. La trama dell’opera è solo un ordito in cui sono incastonate le perle del pensiero.

Manzoni poi inaugura una nuova concezione architettanica dell’allora lingua italiana.

Se per i contemporanei il lessico manzoniano è quasi obsoleto, obbliga talora alla ricerca su dizionari d’epoca per afferrarne il senso, all’epoca era una mirabile opera riunificatrice. Molto di più di un tentativo: un’operazione ben riuscita, prolegomeno di quello che sarà il romanzo de I Promessi Sposi.

*

L’Adelchi è un crogiolo di argomenti non levi. Per spazio tiranno ne enucleiamo alcuni, forse nemmeno i principali.

Libertà.

Poche parole sono così correnti nelle menti e sulle labbra in modo improprio.

Treccani la definisce con una tautologia: “lo stato di chi è libero“. Ne da quindi una definizione riduttiva, giuridica.

Molti, forse troppi, identificano la libertà con la licenza: “libertà è fare ciò che si vuole“. Enunciato appagante ed anche gratificante nell’immediato, ma subdolo. Quanti facessero che ciò volessero sarebbero alla fine schiavi del voluto. Ma molto raramente il voluto è pura razionalità non contraddittoria: alla fine si diventa servi delle pulsioni, magari mascherate da sentimenti.

Molti altri ancora identificano in modo euristico la libertà, come mera possibilità di poter fare qualcosa. Certo, sicuramente si potrebbe essere in grado di fare a piacer grande, per esempio, assassinare una persona molesta, ma sarebbe ben difficile sostenere che vi sia libertà in tale atto.

La vera, autentica persona libera è tale perché la mente supervisiona il presente e forza la volontà ad emettere un “no“. È sorprendente dover constatare quanto si possa diventare effettivamente liberi negando la possibilità anche suadente immediata alla luce delle conseguenze della decisione presa. Ciò che sembrerebbe essere buono e piacevole ora potrebbe facilmente rivelarsi dannoso e financo malvagio nel prosieguo.

Libertà consiste nel voler saper negare una qualcosa di attuale, di un bene appetibile ed immediato, alla luce di un futuro bene maggiore.

Ma allora diventa mandatoria la visione del futuro. Operazione mentale altamente incerta, che diventa sempre meno aleatoria solo se ci si addestra, e duramente, a cogliere per ciò che è il reale.

Si è felici solo ed esclusivamente quando si desidera una cosa lecita e possibile. Quanti desiderassero l’impossibile si condannerebbero ad una perenne infelicità.

Il discorso potrebbe, dovrebbe, proseguire collegando in modo proprio la libertà alla verità. Nulla di duraturo è possibile costruendo sul falso.

Questo è forse il gran male dei tempi correnti, ed è ben capibile, ancorché non condivisibile, il pessimismo manzoniano.

La gran parte della gente vive di sogni, di illusioni e, con sempre maggiore frequenza, di allucinazioni. Grandi, immensi, totalizzanti trasporti che alla fine cozzano sulla dura realtà.

«Un volgo disperso repente si desta;

Intende l’orecchio, solleva la testa ….

Si mesce e discorda lo spregio sofferto

Col misero orgoglio d’un tempo che fu»

*

È l’allucinazione che il passato continui a vivere per il solo fatto che lo si pensi. Alla fine si permuta in pensiero coatto privo di ogni substrato.

«Le donne superbe, con pallida faccia,

I figli pensosi pensose guatar».

Già. Troppo spesso scordiamo che i figli crescono con l’imprinting dato loro dalla madre. A madre superba corrispondono figli superbi. A madre scarna, figli contenuti. Gli integralisti islamici sono in buona ragione così come sono perché in tal vezzo furono allevati dalle loro madri.

Da sempre da pensare il volto umiliato di una dona prima superba. Basta solo avere la pazienza di lasciar fluire il tempo.

«E il premio sperato, promesso a quei forti,

Sarebbe, o delusi, rivolger le sorti,

D’un volgo straniero por fine al dolor?»

*

Questo è il clou del pensiero manzoniano.

I franchi hanno usato la loro libertà negandosi vita comoda ed agiata:

«Lasciar nelle sale del tetto natio
Le donne accorate, tornanti all’addio,
A preghi e consigli che il pianto troncò. ….

Vegliaron nell’arme le gelide notti,
Membrando i fidati colloqui d’amor. ….

Si vider le lance calate sui petti,
A canto agli scudi, rasente agli elmetti,
Udiron le frecce fischiando volar.»

*

Ebbene sì. I franchi si comportarono da liberi, rischiarono la propria vita, si assunsero fatiche non da poco.

Sarebbe invero allucinazione pensare

«E il premio sperato, promesso a quei forti,
Sarebbe, o delusi, rivolger le sorti,
D’un volgo straniero por fine al dolor?»

* * * * * * *

Dapprima si deve essere liberi spiritualmente, quindi si deve conquistare la propria libertà ed infine si deve combattere per mantenerla.

È impensabile che un popolo sia libero se i suoi componenti siano schiavi: schiavi delle proprie abitudini, come minimo, ma anche della droga o dell’alcool, delle idee preconcette, di quelle compulsive e coercitive, delle proprie pulsioni e dei propri sentimenti, solo per fare qualche esempio.

Ci si pensi bene. Superbia, supponenza, orgoglio, invidia, ira, intemperanza sono padroni esigenti e severi, che alla fine portano quasi invitabilmente all’odio, ossia alla perfetta negazione dell’amore.

Fu la disciplina personale che alla fine rese i Franchi un popolo disciplinato che potè dominare gli altri disuniti e litigiosi.

La storia e Manzoni ci ripropongono una lezione grande sia pur disattesa.

Nessuno regala a nessuno la libertà.

Ricordiamocelo bene, specie poi di questi tempi:

«Far torto o patirlo»



Dagli atrii muscosi, dai fori cadenti,
Dai boschi, dall’arse fucine stridenti,
Dai solchi bagnati di servo sudor,
Un volgo disperso repente si desta;
Intende l’orecchio, solleva la testa
Percosso da novo crescente romor.
Dai guardi dubbiosi, dai pavidi volti,
Qual raggio di sole da nuvoli folti,
Traluce de’ padri la fiera virtù:
Ne’ guardi, ne’ volti, confuso ed incerto
Si mesce e discorda lo spregio sofferto
Col misero orgoglio d’un tempo che fu.
S’aduna voglioso, si sperde tremante,
Per torti sentieri, con passo vagante,
Fra tema e desire, s’avanza e ristà;
E adocchia e rimira scorata e confusa
De’ crudi signori la turba diffusa,
Che fugge dai brandi, che sosta non ha.
Ansanti li vede, quai trepide fere,
Irsuti per tema le fulve criniere,
Le note latebre del covo cercar;
E quivi, deposta l’usata minaccia,
Le donne superbe, con pallida faccia,
I figli pensosi pensose guatar.

….

Con l’agile speme precorre l’evento,
E sogna la fine del duro servir.

….

E il premio sperato, promesso a quei forti,
Sarebbe, o delusi, rivolger le sorti,
D’un volgo straniero por fine al dolor?
Tornate alle vostre superbe ruine,
All’opere imbelli dell’arse officine,
Ai solchi bagnati di servo sudor.
Il forte si mesce col vinto nemico,
Col novo signore rimane l’antico;
L’un popolo e l’altro sul collo vi sta.
Dividono i servi, dividon gli armenti;
Si posano insieme sui campi cruenti
D’un volgo disperso che nome non ha.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Geopolitica Europea, Religioni, Unione Europea

Morawiecki. Tornare alle radici cristiane per fermare il declino.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-01-15.

Varsavia 001

Mr Mateusz Morawiecki potrà avere moli difetti, ma sicuramente ha le idee chiare e parla altrettanto chiaro.

«we want to transform Europe. …. to re-Christianize Europe»

*

«unfortunately, in many places, not only are Christmas Carols not sung, but churches are empty, and some are even turned into museums»

*

«Referring to the EU threat to withhold funds because of Poland’s refusal to bow to immigrant quotas, Morawiecki asserted that the country “will not allow this sort of a blackmail.”»

*

«May God give me enough strength to serve Poland well»

*

«new generation of Polish politicians who can unite the respect for the past with appreciation for new tools and technologies»

*

«far from being ashamed of Poland’s Christian past, Morawiecki is proud of it»

*

«the return to Europe’s Christian roots as the only way to stop its decline»

*

«Morawiecki views abortion as negatively as I do, possibly even in a more radical way»

*

«Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki says his government won’t accept migrants from North Africa or the Middle East – despite mandatory EU quotas»

*

«Do they think Poland will “submit” like Sweden?»

* * * * * * *

Unione Europea e Polonia. Scontro frontale. – Bloomberg

Unione Europea. Segni iniziali di squinternamento.

*

Fa una certa quale impressione sentire un linguaggio che per decenni era catacombale poter risuonare a voce spiegata e chiara.

“Vogliamo trasformare l’Europa, ricristianizzare l’Europa.”

Basterebbe questa sola frase per comprendere quanto odio l’Unione Europea riversi sulla Polonia.

“Far tornare l’Europa alla sue radici cristiane”.

Ma mica che sia l’unico in Europa e fuori di essa. Un esempio per tutti:

Putin ed Al Sisi. Il coraggio del ritorno della religione.

Ci stupiamo soltanto di una cosa: che i liberal ed i socialisti europei non abbiano ancora fatto assassinare Mr Mateusz Morawiecki. Anche perché ammazzare tutti i polacchi sarebbe ben difficile: i tedeschi ci avevano già provato senza riuscirsi, poi ci hanno tentato i russi, ed anche loro sono scivolati sulla Polonia cattolica.

Già. La Polonia non è la Svezia.

«Do they think Poland will “submit” like Sweden?»


Ci rendiamo perfettamente conto di quanto questi discorsi urtino nervi scoperti di molte persone, geneticamente atee positive, che hanno in odio Dio, la Chiesa ed i Vangeli. E che li odiano senza mai essersi peritati di studiarli, almeno per sapere di cosa stiano parlando.

Ci rendiamo anche conto di quanto due secoli di costruzioni menzognere da parte degli epigoni illuministi abbiamo fatto percepire come verità sbalorditive menzogne. Diciamo che la gente non ha molta dimestichezza con le biblioteche.

Ma nel contempo dobbiamo ringraziarli. Se non dicessero cose assurde ed illogiche, oltre il comune buone senso, non si assisterebbe alla attuale rinascita religiosa europea, che tanto ha contribuito ad innescare la devoluzione liberal e socialista. Il loro stesso dogmatismo li rende avversari ben poco temibili.

Un solo esempio.

Nella fotografia di cui sotto, sono effigiate alcune del oltre quattrocento nuove monache di clausura di un ordine spagnolo costituito quattro anni fa. Certo, per vederle occorre volerle vedere. Quelle senza velo sono novizie appena entrate.

2018-01-31__Iesu_Communio_001




V4 Report. 2018-01-06. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki says his government won’t accept migrants from North Africa or the Middle East

* Poland: Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki says his government won’t accept migrants from North Africa or the Middle East – despite mandatory EU quotas.

** Despite mandatory EU quotas? Do they think Poland will “submit” like Sweden? This is not how things work in Visegrad. Poland will decide these internal security matters, not some radical liberals from the ALDE Party or EU Parliament in Brussels.

According to Euronews, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki says his government won’t meet the EU’s mandatory quotas set to help take the burden off Italy and Greece.

“We are invariably of the opinion, formulated by Law and Justice ahead of the elections of 2015, that we will not be receiving migrants from the Middle East and Northern Africa in Poland,” Morawiecki said during an interview with Radio Poland.

That doesn’t mean the country isn’t pulling its weight, Morawieski said.

“On the Eastern borders of the European Union we contribute a lot to lowering tensions since we have already received tens of thousands and maybe even hundreds of thousands of refugees from Ukraine – but we don’t give them asylum status.”

*** The leaders of Brussels, Italy and Greece cannot force their “open-border” manifesto on others in Europe. There was never any European solidarity for mass migration, open-borders or UN-style multicult. This is simply a myth.

Unfortunately, Visegrad cannot force the leaders of Italy or Greece to deport the illegal migrants. They have chosen “the burden”.

Likewise, Poland and Visegrad will decide who comes and who stays in their nations. Why should their security and migration policies be determined by the socialist ideology of Alex Tsipras or Paolo Gentiloni?


Life Site. 2017-12-14. New Polish PM sees return to Christian roots as only way to stop Europe’s decline

Mateusz Morawiecki, the new Prime Minister of Poland, spoke about re-Christianizing Europe during the first interview after his nomination. His Law and Justice party has been under constant attack by the EU political elites.

Last Friday Morawiecki, 49, was appointed Prime Minister by President Andrzej Duda. He replaced Beata Szydło, who had served only half a term. Morawiecki had been Minister of Development, Minister of Finance and Deputy Prime Minister in Szydło’s government. He was sworn into office last Monday, and gave his first interview the previous Friday.

The topics of the conversation with a Catholic media outlet Telewizja Trwam ranged from the economic and social development of Poland, international relations, and the EU. Throughout the interview, Morawiecki made several religious references.

Speaking about Polish mining and the problematic EU climate policy, he said, “we want to transform Europe.” He digressed that his dream is to “re-Christianize Europe”.  Morawiecki specified that, “unfortunately, in many places, not only are Christmas Carols not sung, but churches are empty, and some are even turned into museums.”

Morawiecki welcomed the interviewer, Redemptorist Brother Piotr Dettlaff, with the greeting “Szczęść Boże.”  Impossible to directly translate into English, the phrase was a traditional way of greeting working farmers and essentially meant “God bless you in your work.” It is still used today when addressing priests and members of religious orders.

This unique Polish phrase was mentioned by Pope John Paul II in 1997 during his visit to the small Polish town of Krosno. “May the beautiful greetings ‘Szczęść Boże’ and ‘Niech będzie pochwalony Jezus Chrystus’ (Praised be Jesus Christ) never disappear from the mouths of Polish farmers,” he pleaded. “Greet one another with these words as a way of offering your best wishes to your neighbors. These words express your Christian dignity. Do not let it be taken away from you.”

During the interview, Morawiecki contrasted Polish culture and traditions with the EU’s values, which require “serious work.” He called Poland “a very proud, important and great nation, which will be even greater” thanks to pro-family and pro-demographic programs, introduced by the ruling Law and Justice party.

Referring to the EU threat to withhold funds because of Poland’s refusal to bow to immigrant quotas, Morawiecki asserted that the country “will not allow this sort of a blackmail.”

Morawiecki reflected, “May God give me enough strength to serve Poland well.” He spoke about the need for prayers and work for all Poles, not only those who voted for the Law and Justice Party.

Morawiecki is a former banker, manager, and lawyer who is fluent in English and German and understands Russian. He has four children. Morawiecki joined the Law and Justice Party in 2016.

Publisher reveals more about his friend Morawiecki

Publisher and journalist Romuald Lazarowicz, who has known Morawiecki since childhood and still speaks to him “practically every day,” spoke to LifeSiteNews about the Prime Minister.

Lazarowicz said that Morawiecki had been involved in an anti-Communist opposition group led by his father, Kornel Morawiecki. All three men were members of the underground organization Fighting Solidarity (Solidarność Walcząca) in Wrocław.

“The atmosphere in his family home shaped his attitude, ideas and morality,” Lazarowicz said. On the one hand, Morawiecki’s mother Jadwiga was very religious, warm, and smart. On the other hand, the potentially deadly political activism of his father “stiffened his backbone.”

Lazarowicz revealed that Mateusz Morawiecki joined Fighting Solidarity as a teenager, and was “under very tight surveillance.” He was repeatedly “beaten by the Communist police, and brutally interrogated.” At one point, “he was even kidnapped and forced to dig his own grave.” Luckily, this was simply Communist intimidation.

In another instance, there was a danger of his imminent arrest during his senior year in high school—something that would prevent him from graduating. Friends from Fighting Solidarity who were doctors hid him in a local hospital for several days and transported him in a speeding ambulance so that he could take his final exam that was necessary to graduate and attend university.

Lazarowicz recalled that after Poland regained its independence in 1989, Morawiecki decided to seek as wide an education as possible. He studied in Poland, Switzerland, Germany, and in the United States, at the Central Connecticut State University and the famous Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University.

Lazarowicz told LifeSite that as CEO of the third largest Polish bank, Morawiecki supported patriotic projects, such as films and exhibits commemorating Poland’s history. He also helped his former anti-Communist friends who were in difficult financial straits.

“He is an unusual politician,” Lazarowicz argued, since “he follows a moral compass and is truthful.” His goal is to “raise Poland from its Communist past, make it more prosperous and prominent.”

Morawiecki belongs to a “new generation of Polish politicians who can unite the respect for the past with appreciation for new tools and technologies.” He not only talks about the importance of the family and religion, but ”lives it in his personal life.”

Lazarowicz said that, far from being ashamed of Poland’s Christian past, Morawiecki is proud of it. He sees the return to Europe’s Christian roots as the only way to stop its decline.

When asked about Morawiecki’s religious life, Lazarowicz responded that the Prime Minister is a practicing Catholic who receives Communion.  Journalist Igor Janke, who wrote a book about Fighting Solidarity revealed that Morawiecki abstains from meat on Fridays, a custom still upheld by many Poles, but not many Catholics in other countries.

Morawiecki on abortion legislation

On the subject of abortion, Lazarowicz said that Morawiecki “views abortion as negatively as I do, possibly even in a more radical way.”

However, “politics is the art of swerving between the things which are just, and those which are possible and necessary,” Lazarowicz added. “It is not always feasible to transpose personal moral standards into political practice.”

Mariusz Dzierżawski of the Right to Life Foundation, who has repeatedly tried to ban abortions in Poland, most recently in 2016, told LifeSite, ”so far Morawiecki has supported the killing of the unborn disabled or sick.” He added, “let’s hope it will change.”

The Polish Press Agency (PAP) reported than in 2016 Morawiecki supported the current abortion law, which allows for eugenic abortions up to six months gestation. The Polish Parliament is supposed to vote on a eugenic abortion ban early in 2018.

LifeSite asked the Prime Minister’s Office for some specifics on his dream to re-Christianize Europe but has not received a response by press time.

Pubblicato in: Geopolitica Europea, Unione Europea

Italia. Il cd avrebbe il 38.4.% dei voti, il cs il 27.0%. – Tecne

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-11-29.

 Merkel e Juncker

«La storia ci insegna che i sondaggi non sono strumenti di previsione: ci dicono come stanno probabilmente le cose al giorno d’oggi, ma difficilmente possono essere usati per dire con certezza quale sarà il risultato di un’elezione che si terrà diversi mesi dopo.»

Secondo i dati rilevati da Index, questa sarebbe la situazione odierna per i partiti politici.

2017-11-28__Italia_Prospezioni_Elettorali__001

M5S sarebbe sempre il primo partito nazionale con il 27.5% dei voti. Il partito democratico scenderebbe al 24.3%, mentre forza Italia e la lega avrebbero il 15.0% ed il 14.7%, rispettivamente.

Si noti come forza Italia e la lega siano sostanzialmente stabili nel tempo, mentre il partito democratico evidenzi un lento ma costante decremento.

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Tuttavia movimenti significativi sono evidenti quando si prendano in considerazione le possibili coalizioni.

Questi sono i risultati forniti da Index.

2017-11-28__Italia_Prospezioni_Elettorali__002

Il centro-destra sarebbe al 36.6%, con 7.2 punti percentuali di stacco contro il centro-sinistra, quotato al 29.4%: questo stacco dura oramai da diversi mesi.

*

2017-11-28__Italia_Prospezioni_Elettorali__003

I risultati per coalizione forniti fa Tecne sono ancora più marcati. Il centro-destra raggiungerebbe il 38.4%, cresciuto in un mese di 0.7 punti percentuali, mentre il centro-sinistra si attesterebbe al 27.7%, con un decremento in un mese di 1.5 punti percentuali.

*

Questi dati sembrerebbero essere in linea con quanto sta accadendo a livello mondiale ed europeo in particolare.

– Il 20 gennaio 2017 si è insediato il Presidente Trump, che a novembre aveva conquistato 304 grandi elettori contro i 227 di Mrs Hillary Clinton, del partito democratico.

– Il 7 maggio 2017 alle elezioni presidenziali francesi il partito socialista francese è crollato dal 62% all’8%.

– Il 21 settembre 2017 Mr Macron ha conquistato 22 su 171 seggi senatoriali.

– Il 24 settembre 2017 le elezioni federali politiche sanzionavano la perdita di 153 deputati della Große Koalition: la Cdu crollava al 32.9% e l’Spd al 20.5%.

– Il 15 ottobre in Austria  Herr Kurz trionfava alle elezioni austriache con il 31.6%, e l’Fpö raggiungeva il 26.0%.

– Il 22 ottobre 2017 nella Repubblica Ceka il partito Ano 2011 conseguiva il 29.6% dei voti, mentre il Civil Democracy Party crollava all’11.3% dei voti.

– Il 5 novembre 2017 in Slovakia, alle elezioni regionali, la Smer, partito socialista del presidente Fico, ha perso il controllo di quattro delle sei regioni. Nelle elezioni politiche del 2012 aveva conseguito il 44.4% dei voti, il 28.3% in quelle del 2016, il 26.2% nelle regionali.

In sette successive tornate elettorali, liberal e sinistre hanno subito sette severi smacchi.

Pubblicato in: Geopolitica Europea, Geopolitica Militare, Senza categoria

Nato impreparata ad una guerra convenzionale.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-10-26.

NATO_affiliations_in_Europe.svg

Nato. Obiettivi, ruolo e finanziamenti odierni. Una realtà mutata.

Il Presidente Trump, esattamente come il Presidente Putin, sa benissimo come la Germania entro quindici anni sarà spopolata dagli autoctoni e tramutata in un enclave islamico, indifendibile dal punto di vista americano e facilissima preda per la Russia. Preda obbligatoria, per non esserne contagiata.

Per quale motivo correre il rischio di un conflitto nucleare per la Germania?

Tanto alla fine i russi dovranno occupare un’Europa spopolata degli autoctoni per impedire che diventi un nuovo focolaio islamico.

*

Il problema è drammaticamente semplice.

La pace può essere mantenuto solo sotto la condizione che tutti i possibili contendenti siano in un ragionevole equilibrio di forze. E questo è vero da un punto di vista degli armamenti atomici.

La grande disparità è evidente per quanto riguarda gli eserciti e gli armamenti convenzionali.

Gli Occidentali non hanno forze armate degne di quel nome, non intendono spendere in armamenti e, soprattutto, non hanno un numero sufficiente di uomini da arruolare.

Né ci si illuda delle capacità combattive delle donne immesse le truppe di prima linea. Saranno unità di svago per gli avversari.

«NATO would be incapable of rebuffing an attack by Russia on its eastern flank»

Ciò chiarito, facciamo alcune considerazioni.

La Russia non è al momento interessata ad una guerra europea, se non per quanto riguardasse il ricongiungimento delle popolazioni russofone della zona del Don.

Ma questo quadro potrebbe non durare a lungo nel tempo.

L’Europa continentale continua implacabilmente a spopolarsi degli autoctoni.

Non serve la sfera di cristallo per comprendere come saranno inevitabili fortissime tensioni sociali: tutta una situazione che la Nato identifica come “Turbulence and Competition.». Ben difficilmente la Russia potrà tollerare una simile situazione ai suoi confini: più che invasione si tratterebbe di un’operazione su vasta scala di polizia.

Intanto, a tal punto, la Nato sarà ridotta da un punto di vista militare ai soli Stati Uniti.

Ma, domandiamoci seriamente, tra dieci anni la Nato, sempre che ci sia ancora, sarà interessata al controllo del continente europeo?


Atlantic Council. 2016-02. Alliance at Risk. Strengthening European Defense in an Age of Turbulence and Competition.

Questo è un ponderoso documento che illustra tutti gli aspetti di interesse europei della Nato.


Arab News. 2017-10-21. NATO ill-prepared for a Russian attack: Report

BERLIN: NATO would be incapable of rebuffing an attack by Russia on its eastern flank, according to an internal report by the alliance cited Friday by German magazine Der Spiegel.

The document, entitled “Progress Report on the Strengthened Deterrence and Defense Capability of the Alliance,” identified significant deficiencies.

“NATO’s ability to logistically support rapid reinforcement in the strongly expanded territory of the European commander’s area of responsibility has atrophied since the end of the Cold War,” Spiegel quoted the report as saying.
Even the expansion of the NATO Response Force (NRF) had failed to ensure that it could “react rapidly and — if necessary — sustainably,” it said.

The report cited a pared-down command structure since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 as one of the crucial factors that had undermined the alliance’s defense capabilities, Spiegel said.

NATO spokeswoman Oana Lungescu declined to comment on the Spiegel report but said that alliance “forces are more ready and able to deploy than at any time in decades.”

She added that work was “underway to ensure that the NATO command structure remains robust, agile and fit for purpose,” an issue to be discussed at a meeting of NATO defense ministers next month.

NATO’s relations with Russia have hit their lowest point since the Cold War over the conflict in Ukraine.

After Russia annexed Crimea on March 18, 2014, the alliance suspended its civilian and military cooperation with Moscow, and Ukraine announced its intention to apply for NATO membership.

The alliance also fast-tracked preparations for the defense of eastern European members and tripled the size of its Response Force, with a new 5,000-member rapid reaction force at its core.

The US-led alliance has bolstered its forces in eastern Europe with four international battalions acting as tripwires against possible Russian adventurism in the region.

But NATO has also tried to maintain dialogue with Moscow, and ambassadors from its 29 member states will meet their Russian counterpart next Thursday in Brussels.

 


C4 Defence. 2017-10-21. NATO-Russia-defence. [Uluslararası Savunma Haberleri (Notizie sulla difesa internazionale)]

NATO-Russia-defence NATO ill-prepared for a Russian attack: report Berlin, Oct 20, 2017 (AFP) – NATO would be incapable of rebuffing an attack by Russia on its eastern flank, according to an internal report by the alliance cited Friday by German magazine Der Spiegel. The document, entitled “Progress Report on the Strengthened Deterrence and Defence Capability of the Alliance”, identified significant deficiencies. “NATO’s ability to logistically support rapid reinforcement in the strongly expanded territory of the European commander’s area of responsibility has atrophied since the end of the Cold War,” Spiegel quoted the report as saying. Even the expansion of the NATO Response Force (NRF) had failed to ensure that it could “react rapidly and — if necessary — sustainably”, it said. The report cited a pared-down command structure since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 as one of the crucial factors that had undermined the alliance’s defence capabilities, Spiegel said. NATO spokeswoman Oana Lungescu declined to comment on the Spiegel report but said that alliance “forces are more ready and able to deploy than at any time in decades”. She added that work was “underway to ensure that the NATO command structure remains robust, agile and fit for purpose,” an issue to be discussed at a meeting of NATO defence ministers next month. NATO’s relations with Russia have hit their lowest point since the Cold War over the conflict in Ukraine. After Russia annexed Crimea on March 18, 2014, the alliance suspended its civilian and military cooperation with Moscow, and Ukraine announced its intention to apply for NATO membership. The alliance also fast-tracked preparations for the defence of eastern European members and tripled the size of its Response Force, with a new 5,000-member rapid reaction force at its core. The US-led alliance has bolstered its forces in eastern Europe with four international battalions acting as tripwires against possible Russian adventurism in the region. But NATO has also tried to maintain dialogue with Moscow, and ambassadors from its 29 member states will meet their Russian counterpart next Thursday in Brussels.


Radio Free Europe. 2017-10-21. Report: NATO Insufficiently Ready In Case Of Russian Attack

NATO would not be able to rebuff a potential Russian attack on its eastern flank, according to an internal report cited on October 20 by German weekly Der Spiegel.

The paper, titled Progress Report On The Strengthened Deterrence And Defense Capability Of The Alliance, pointed to significant deficiencies.

“NATO’s ability to logistically support rapid reinforcement in the strongly expanded territory of the European commander’s area of responsibility has atrophied since the end of the Cold War,” Der Spiegel quoted the report as saying.

Even the strengthening of the NATO Response Force (NRF) has failed to ensure that it could “react rapidly and — if necessary — sustainably,” it said.

The report cited a downsized command structure since the fall of communism as one of the paramount elements that has undermined the alliance’s defense capabilities, Der Spiegel quoted the report as saying.

NATO spokeswoman Oana Lungescu declined to comment on the German magazine report but said that alliance “forces are more ready and able to deploy than at any time in decades.”

Lungescu said that efforts are “under way to ensure that the NATO command structure remains robust, agile, and fit for purpose.”

The alliance’s command structure is to be discussed at a meeting of NATO defense ministers next month.

NATO’s relations with Russia are at their lowest since the Cold War over the conflict in Ukraine.

After Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, NATO suspended its civilian and military cooperation with Moscow, as Ukraine announced its intention to seek membership in the alliance.


Spiegel. 2017-10-20. „Das Risiko ist erheblich“

In einem Geheimbericht warnt die Nato davor, dass man einem Angriff Russlands nicht gewachsen sei. Führende Militärs fordern eine Rückkehr zu den Kommandostrukturen des Kalten Krieges.

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Das 2. Ka­val­le­rie-Re­gi­ment ist ei­ner der äl­tes­ten Ver­bän­de der US-Ar­mee. Schon 1846 kämpf­ten Sol­da­ten der Ein­heit ge­gen die Me­xi­ka­ner. In den In­dia­ner­krie­gen zwei Jahr­zehn­te spä­ter ge­riet ein Teil des Re­gi­ments in ei­nen Hin­ter­halt und wur­de skal­piert. 1905 schlu­gen die Ka­val­le­ris­ten ei­nen Auf­stand auf den Phil­ip­pi­nen nie­der. Die Trup­pe war in zwei Welt­krie­gen im Ein­satz und wur­de mehr­mals in den Irak und nach Af­gha­nis­tan ver­legt.

[Testo riportato parzialmente causa il copyright]

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Geopolitica Europea

Catalogna. Lunedì dichiarerebbe l’indipendenza.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-10-04.

Goya Francisco. Los fusilamientos del tres de mayo. Museo del Prado, Madrid. 1814

La crisi spagnola, forse sarebbe meglio dire catalana, è nata male ed è stata gestita peggio, con rara ottusità ed imperizia.

Eppure la storia recente avrebbe ben dovuto insegnare qualcosa, ma i politici al momento al governo nei paesi dell’Unione Europea sembrerebbero essere costituzionalmente incapaci di percepire la realtà e ragionarci sopra.

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La politica necessita come prima istanza di un ascolto attento e sereno delle idee e delle necessità altrui: senza questo ascolto franco ed oggettivo qualsiasi azione successiva risulterebbe essere invariabilmente errata, controproducente.

Sembrerebbe che nulla si sia compreso dalla devoluzione dell’Unione Sovietica, che meno di trenta anni fa si disgregò in stati caratterizzati da proprie antiche tradizioni religiose, culturali, sociali ed artistiche, dando luogo ad entità che ricalcavano gli assetti tardo medievali.

Similmente, la devoluzione della Yugoslavia dette origine ad una costellazione di stati anche essi caratterizzati da una loro propria religione, cultura, storia politica e sociale: anche in questa occasione il risultato fu un ritorno della carta geografica a quella che era nel tardo medioevo.

Il primo gennaio 1993 dalla pacifica scissione delle Cecoslovakia nacquero la Repubblica Ceka e la Slovakia, stati indipendente ma attivamente collaboranti: la politica della comprensione reciproca dette ottimi frutti.

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Bene, tutti questi esempi storici sembrerebbero essere accaduti invano; nessun governante europeo ha voluto studiarne la genesi né ha saputo trarne le conclusioni.

Al contrario, sotto la spinta della imperante ideologia liberal e socialista ideologica si è andato intessendo un processo politico diametralmente opposto: il tentativo di far transitare l’Unione Europea da un insieme di stati sovrani uniti e collegati da comuni interessi economici a stato europeo: esattamente l’opposto di quanto la storia andava insegnando. Una situazione europea sorda, volutamente sorda, a quanto popoli e genti stanno reclamando. Nulla sembrerebbe aver insegnato il disfacimento del partito socialista francese prima, e quindi quello della socialdemocrazia e dei cristiano democratici in Germania.

Superbia, supponenza, alterigia, ma anche l’intelletto limitato, quasi atrofizzato e condizionato dall’ideologia, sembrerebbero essere tratto caratteristico dei governanti europei.

Eppure la crisi ukraina avrebbe ben dovuto far ripassare la lezione. Solo che questa volta l’Ukraina divenne terreno di scontro delle superpotenze, scontro cui l’Unione Europea cercò di intrufolarsi in cerca di una sua propria identità inesistente, alla ricerca del proprio brandello di carne.

Un insegnamento non colto della crisi ukraina è quello relativo all’uso della forza.

A parole liberal e socialisti aborriscono l’uso della forza, nei fatti la utilizzano a man bassa, e l’evoluzione della devoluzione ukraina ne è chiara testimonianza. Solo che la utilizzano male. Non son certo dei Richelieu.

Proprio non hanno saputo comprendere la lezione: o si usano i mezzi diplomatici e politici fino alle estreme conseguenze, prendendo anche atto che esistono gli altri e che hanno diritto di esistere, cercando accordi e non compromessi, oppure la forza deve essere impiegata nella sua massima forma espressiva compatibile con la situazione che si è determinata. L’uso della forza deve essere dirimente: deve annientare l’avversario politico divenuto nemico sul terreno.

* * *

La Spagna ha alle spalle il retaggio della guerra civile, quando i comunisti cercarono di instaurare una repubblica sovietica ed il resto della Spagna insorse contro tale progetto. Fu guerra civile lunga, sanguinosa e velleitaria, che esitò in una situazione che solo il tempo avrebbe almeno parzialmente sanato. Ma tutti la ricordano.

Orbene, l’attuale Governo Rajoy è un governo sostanzialmente – vide infra – minoritario, non legittimato dal voto popolare, bensì da alchimie politiche.

Alle elezioni del 26 giugno 2016 Mr Rajoy consegue 137 deputati e 130 senatori, maggioranza relativa ma non tale da poter formare un governo. Solo il 23 ottobre lo Psoe approvava l’astensione sul voto di fiducia ad un nuovo governo, che si formò quindi il 4 novembre con 170 deputati favorevoli, 111 contrari e 68 astenuti.

Il Parlamento spagnolo è composto da 350 deputati, quindi la maggioranza dovrebbe essere (350 / 2) +1 = 176.

Il fatto che tutti ritengano legale il Governo Rajoy non significa minimamente che lo sia. E questo i catalani lo sanno più che bene.

Mr Rajoy è spalleggiato e consigliato dalla attuale dirigenza dell’Unione Europea, sulla quale egli ritiene poter fare affidamento. Questa dirigenza è tutta tesa a cercare di costituire, de facto essendone impossibilitata de iure: in questa ottica non può essere altro che nemica giurata di ogni qualsivoglia forma di secessionismo.

Liberal e socialisti ideologici sono nemici giurati dei referendum popolari, anche perché quando si riesce a tenerli, li perdono con sconcertante regolarità.

Come avrebbe dovuto insegnare Abraham Lincoln, di fronte ad una secessione o si tratta o si usa la forza fino a tutte le estreme conseguenze di una guerra civile.

Mr Rajoy non ha saputo fare né una cosa né l’altra.

Ha inviato in Catalogna forze di polizia, non forze militari, e queste non hanno saputo né potuto impedire lo svolgimento del referendum, esitato in un plebiscitario consenso alla secessione. Sta di fatto che i catalani ricorderanno per molto tempo le violenze subite.

Adesso, questo lunedì il Governo Catalano sembrerebbe essere determinato a dichiarare l’indipendenza della Catalogna.

È prematuro dire se ciò accadrà o meno, come resta difficile dire come reagirà l’Unione Europea e gli altri stati mondiali.

Di certo, basterebbe che uno solo di loro riconoscesse il nuovo stato della Catalogna per scatenare una nuova guerra civile, auspicalmente poco cruenta, dagli effetti disgreganti l’Unione Europea, che, sia detto per inciso, non dispone di forze armate terresti degne di tal nome.

Nota. 

Alleghiamo gli articoli pubblicati da quelle che sono ritenute essere la maggiori agenzie di stampa. Ci si ricordi che esse sono liberal fino al midollo ed ai lacci delle scarpe.


Reuters. 2017-10-04. Catalonia to move to declare independence from Spain on Monday

MADRID/BARCELONA (Reuters) – Catalonia will move on Monday to declare independence from Spain, a regional government source said, as the European Union nation nears a rupture that threatens the foundations of its young democracy and has unnerved financial markets.

Pro-independence parties which control the regional parliament have asked for a debate and vote on Monday on declaring independence, the source said. A declaration should follow this vote, although it is unclear when.

Catalan President Carles Puigdemont earlier told the BBC that his government would ask the region’s parliament to declare independence after tallying votes from last weekend’s referendum, which Madrid says was illegal.

“This will probably finish once we get all the votes in from abroad at the end of the week and therefore we shall probably act over the weekend or early next week,” he said in remarks published on Wednesday.

The constitutional crisis in Spain, the euro zone’s fourth-biggest economy, has shaken the common currency and hit Spanish stocks and bonds, sharply raising Madrid’s borrowing costs.

On Wednesday, the Ibex stock index .IBEX, fell below 10,000 points for the first time since March 2015 as bank stocks tumbled. In a sign of the nervous public mood, Catalonia’s biggest bank, Caixabank (CABK.MC), and Spain’s economy minister had earlier sought to assure bank customers that their deposits were safe.

EVENING STATEMENT

Puigdemont’s comments appeared after Spain’s King Felipe VI accused secessionist leaders on Tuesday of shattering democratic principles and dividing Catalan society, as tens of thousands protested against a violent police crackdown on Sunday’s vote.

Bloomberg. 2017-10-04. Why Catalonia Will Fail Where Crimea Succeeded

The Spanish region’s referendum is just as illegitimate, but it has less practical ability to secede.

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There are good reasons why the Russian propaganda machine backed Sunday’s Catalan referendum and the Ukrainian foreign ministry denounced it ” as “illegitimate.” The Catalan situation draws comparisons with that in Crimea in 2014, and they are not as easy to dismiss as Catalan independence supporters might think.

To discuss the similarities, let’s first get the one glaring dissimilarity out of the way. In March 2014, the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea was full of Russian troops, both in and out of uniform. Days after a revolution in Ukraine brought down the government of President Viktor Yanukovych, Russia’s “little green men,” as the unmarked Russian soldiers were called, seized Crimea’s local parliament and installed a local pro-Russian politician, Sergei Aksyonov, as the region’s prime minister.

Ukraine contends that the March 16 referendum, in which Crimea voted to secede from Ukraine and join Russia, took place at gunpoint. That bit, however, is untrue. Neither the “little green men” nor uniformed Russian soldiers were present at polling stations during the vote. There was no armed pressure on Crimeans, not even on the indigenous Crimean Tatars, who didn’t back the secession and mostly abstained from voting, to show up or to fill in ballots a certain way. The presence of Russian troops played a role (more on this later), but it wasn’t what made the referendum illegitimate.

Of course, poor Crimea was only part of Soviet Ukraine since 1954; rich Catalonia has been part of Spain for centuries. Still, eagle-eyed Catalans saw hope in the Crimean referendum. Enrique (Enric in Catalan) Ravello, a right-wing Catalan politician who served as an “observer” at the Crimean referendum, told The New York Times at the time that “Crimea in Catalonia is for us an example, for what we would like to do.” The Ukrainian constitution, like the Spanish one, doesn’t allow secession. The countries are not federations or unions, like the former union of Sweden and Norway, dissolved in 1905, the former Czechoslovakia, dissolved in 1993, the former Soviet Union, whose constitution allowed the constituent republics’ self-determination, or today’s U.K. The Ukrainian government withheld from Aksyonov’s secessionist government access to voter rolls. So it just used any old or incomplete ones it could find. If someone wasn’t on a list, the vote counters simply wrote down their name and gave them a ballot. That allowed an enthusiastic voter to cast multiple ballots. 

The Spanish government, too, denied the Catalans access to the rolls. So secessionist Catalan officials told voters to print out ballots at home and cast them wherever they could. Ballots were even handed out at rallies before the referendum.

In Crimea, 95.6 percent of those who cast votes backed joining Russia. In Catalonia, some 90 percent did, according to local authorities. In Crimea, the official turnout topped 83 percent while in Catalonia it reached about half that — but these numbers are equally meaningless because there was no way to ascertain the voting was being held according to any sensible rules. In both Crimea and Catalonia, those who backed secession displayed wild enthusiasm; those who didn’t preferred to keep quiet and stay home, perhaps out of concern that the enthusiasts might not appreciate their position.

Anyway, it didn’t matter. In Crimea, the secessionist local authorities had already passed a “declaration of independence” by the time the vote took place. In Catalonia, the government of Carles Puigdemont also knew the result well in advance. It plans to declare independence in the next few days.

That’s the most important similarity between the two votes. It doesn’t matter to those who organized them how public opinion really stacked up. They had a goal, and any theatrics that helped them accomplish it were welcome. In the Crimea case, the theatrics included public displays of Russian patriotism (people would cover Ukrainian flags on car license plates with Russian ones); in Catalonia, resistance to Spanish attempts to ban the vote and any sign of Spanish violence were the main themes. 

The main difference between Spain-2017 and Ukraine-2014, of course, is that the Ukrainian government simply wasn’t strong enough to impose its laws in Crimea. Subsequent events in the country’s east, when Kiev actually tried to hold secessionist regions by force, confirmed that it would have failed to prevent the secession.

In Spain, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy heads a minority government, but it isn’t a hastily assembled caretaker cabinet or a weak, post-revolutionary country. It’s in control of its law enforcement apparatus and army and backed in the Catalan matter by its top political rivals and the Spanish king. It’s plenty strong enough to have made an obvious travesty of the secession referendum by harrying its organizers and disrupting the “vote,” and it’ll be strong enough to go after the separatist leaders if they proceed with an independence declaration. It’s also strong enough to reject international mediation; accepting it would be a mistake, a show of weakness against weaker opponents.

Ukraine wants Crimea back — and the world recognizes its right to get it back. Spain won’t let Catalonia go peacefully for the same reason, and, for all the moaning about Rajoy’s strong-arm tactics (which haven’t yet included a real crackdown, though), there’s no international support for secession on the strength of the “referendum.”

That’s where the Russian military presence in Crimea comes in. Russia provided the overwhelming force that made the Crimean secession possible in practical terms. The threat of force, and not the referendum, made sure Crimea exists as a de facto part of Russia today. Puigdemont stands alone, without a force that can fight for secession. Even if he had majority public support — which the “referendum” doesn’t allow him to claim — he’d lose a confrontation. That’s why he’s headed for a fall, and the Catalan secessionists will eventually be sent back to the drawing board. If they’re smart, they’ll start working on a long-term campaign to change the Spanish constitution and turn the country into a federation so self-determination can eventually be discussed.