Pubblicato in: Demografia, Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Unione Europea

Germania. Il paziente era ancora vivo un secondo prima di morire. È molto malata.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-09-16.

Giulio Romano. Mantova. Palazzo Te. Caduta dei Giganti. 002 Particolare

La Germania presenta molti problemi strutturali che a breve termine potrebbero diventare destruenti. Tra i tanti, ne segnaliamo i due di più attuale importanza.

    Problema demografico.

Germania. La demografia stritola Germania e Große Koalition.

Germania. Demografia. Tasso di fertilità crollato a 1.54. – Destatis.

Germania. Mancano 1.6 milioni di lavoratori esperti, Meister.

Germania. Mancano ora 35,000 insegnanti, nel 2025 ne mancheranno 105,000.

Germania. Demografia. Accademia Tecnica. Mancano dieci milioni di lavoratori.

*

«La popolazione autoctona tedesca sta implacabilmente declinando.

Le femmine tedesche hanno il primo figlio dopo i trenta anni e sono trenta anni che l’indice di fertilità è sotto il valore di 2.1, ossia la soglia per mantenere costante la numerosità della popolazione. ….

La numerosità della popolazione totale è ragionevolmente costante nel tempo, ma solo grazie ad una massiccia immigrazione.

Tuttavia, l’immigrazione sopperisce persone culturalmente poco preparate, adatte per lavori dignitosi ma pur sempre di basso rango. Il rapporto vecchi / giovani sta calando vistosamente e, soprattutto resta impossibile rimpiazzare gli esodi da posizioni ove il dominio del tedesco fluente sarebbe indispensabile. Personale universitario, giudici, medici, infermieri, burocrati e professionisti omologhi devono mandatoriamente essere madrelingua e di alto livello culturale: ma non ce ne sono di giovani in numero sufficiente.»

La Germania, come tutte le nazioni, non è un concetto astratto: essa è la sintesi della sua popolazione. Ma se questa si estingue diventa una mera espressione geografica. Si preannuncia un transitorio particolarmente doloroso e travagliato.

    Problema del lavoro.

Nel periodo dell’emergenza la Germania ha sospeso le leggi sui fallimenti e con i Kurzarbeit ha sovvenzionato le imprese così che esse non procedessero a licenziamenti. In pratica, lo stato federale paga gli stipendi dei dipendenti, che restano formalmente assunti ma senza aver nulla da fare.

Tuttavia, codesta soluzione è chiaramente un provvedimento temporaneo, che non può durare a lungo nel tempo. Nemmeno la Germania potrebbe mantenere sine die milioni di persone.

Sarebbero circa 550,000 – 800,000 le imprese decotte, mantenute artificialmente in vita, e circa sette milioni i Kurzarbeit.

Ma l’aspetto più preoccupante è che al momento nessuno sappia come fare per uscire da questa impasse, sempre che sia ancora possibile.

Il tutto poi è ulteriormente complicato dalla parcellizzazione politica e dalle elezioni politiche che si terranno l’anno prossimo: queste stanno a cuore dei politici ben più che la Germania.

* * * * * * *

«Germany’s economy is sicker than you think»

«Epidemiologically and economically, Germany did well in round one of the pandemic»

«The problems will show up in round two»

«But the country could soon have a different problem»

«The same government policies that worked so well in the first phase of the corona-recession could do major damage in the second phase and thereafter»

«it has pumped some 1 trillion euros ($1.18 trillion) into its economy»

«The government now reckons the contraction for the whole year will be milder than originally assumed, at “only” minus 5.8%»

«In particular, Germany has been good at saving jobs»

« It’s done this in part by suspending normal bankruptcy rules, thus keeping more employers afloat. Simultaneously, the government has used a century-old policy tool to keep employees in their jobs even if they have no work to do»

«This now-famous policy instrument is called Kurzarbeit, literally “short-time work.”»

«In a nutshell, the government subsidizes firms to keep workers on their payrolls even when idled.»

«suspension of insolvency procedures were only meant to be temporary measure …. Kurzarbeit has been extended through the end of 2021»

«The fear among many German economists is that the combination of these policies will create “zombie companies” — firms that should really die and exit the market because of problems unrelated to the pandemic, but that are instead kept alive artificially»

«An estimated 550,000 firms could already be zombies, according to one estimate, and this could grow to perhaps 800,000 next year»

«One reason for concern is demographics»

«This is the decade when Germany’s baby boomers begin retiring in huge numbers»

«There’s no sign yet that the makers and suppliers of Germany’s gas-guzzling cars will get any closer to competing with the U.S. or China»

«But in extending short-term measures for the long haul, her right-left coalition seems to be more concerned with keeping the peace until next fall’s election than with preparing Germany for the bigger challenges to come»

«These will require wrenching reforms in welfare and taxation and a long-overdue upheaval in Germany’s industrial, service and financial sectors»

* * * * * * *


Germany’s Economy Is Sicker Than You Think.

Epidemiologically and economically, Germany did well in round one of the pandemic. The problems will show up in round two.

There’s no question that Germany has done relatively well during this annus horribilis, and that the administration of Chancellor Angela Merkel deserves most of the credit. But the country could soon have a different problem. The same government policies that worked so well in the first phase of the corona-recession could do major damage in the second phase and thereafter.

Germany can certainly be proud of what it has achieved this year. It “flattened the curve” of Covid-19 transmission early on. And with a dizzying array of stimulus spending and other measures, it has pumped some 1 trillion euros ($1.18 trillion) into its economy.

Thanks to all this, output has been growing again since May. The government now reckons the contraction for the whole year will be milder than originally assumed, at “only” minus 5.8%. By early 2022, the economy should be at pre-crisis levels again. Economy Minister Peter Altmaier (pictured) has been flaunting V-shaped recovery charts.

In particular, Germany has been good at saving jobs. It’s done this in part by suspending normal bankruptcy rules, thus keeping more employers afloat. Simultaneously, the government has used a century-old policy tool to keep employees in their jobs even if they have no work to do. These measures kept unemployment at 4.4% as of July, when the average was 7.2% in the European Union and 10.2% in the U.S.

This now-famous policy instrument is called Kurzarbeit, literally “short-time work.” In a nutshell, the government subsidizes firms to keep workers on their payrolls even when idled. The employees continue getting most of their normal paychecks and are ready to return to work as soon as there is renewed demand. Kurzarbeit was a big reason why Germany emerged relatively unscathed from the Great Recession of 2008-09. Viewed as the international “gold standard” of work-benefit schemes, it’s been copied across Europe and beyond.

But the subsidization of work not actually done and the de facto suspension of insolvency procedures were only meant to be temporary measures. And yet, the Merkel cabinet recently prolonged both programs. Kurzarbeit has been extended through the end of 2021.

The fear among many German economists is that the combination of these policies will create “zombie companies” — firms that should really die and exit the market because of problems unrelated to the pandemic, but that are instead kept alive artificially. An estimated 550,000 firms could already be zombies, according to one estimate, and this could grow to perhaps 800,000 next year.

The even deeper fear is that this zombification eventually infects even healthy firms and removes the pressure for them to restructure. As I described in January, many economists were predicting the end of Germany’s recent “economic miracle” even before Covid-19, unless the country prescribes itself radical industrial, technological and cultural updates.

One reason for concern is demographics: This is the decade when Germany’s baby boomers begin retiring in huge numbers. Another is a creeping loss of competitiveness in sectors that are central to Germany’s manufacturing economy, from cars to machines. A third is a cultural resistance to change that keeps Europe’s largest economy surprisingly analog in an increasingly digital world — it continues to be a maker of “stuff” in a universe of data.

Germany is a place where people still file expense reports on slices of dead trees. It’s the country that ranks last among seven in a new survey about online learning during the lockdowns, with half of German parents saying that their schools offered none at all. And it’s an economy that just plummeted by 52 ranks in an analysis of “digital risers” and laggards.

There’s hope that Covid-19 could accelerate some of the necessary changes. After this spring’s stampede into home offices, for example, just over half of German companies in one survey claimed they’ll get digitally savvier. But those were human-resources managers being polled. There’s no sign yet that the makers and suppliers of Germany’s gas-guzzling cars will get any closer to competing with the U.S. or China in artificial intelligence, which they’ll need to do to build the self-driving cars of the future.

The Merkel government deserves kudos for going all out in rescuing the Germany economy this year. But in extending short-term measures for the long haul, her right-left coalition seems to be more concerned with keeping the peace until next fall’s election than with preparing Germany for the bigger challenges to come. 

These will require wrenching reforms in welfare and taxation and a long-overdue upheaval in Germany’s industrial, service and financial sectors. As Warren Buffett, that doyen of harder-edged American capitalism, has observed, it’s only when the tide goes out that you discover who’s been swimming naked. Germany can keeping pouring on money for a while longer, but it can’t prevent the ebb.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Germania. Servizi -12.5% YoY, Vendite Auto -18.0% YoY.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-09-18.

Destatis__001

In sintesi.

– 2020Q2. Settore servizi -12.5% on the same quarter of the previous year

– 2020Q2. Car trade records a decline of -18.0% (price, calendar and seasonally adjusted)

* * * * * * *

Germania. Ordini Industria Manifatturiera +2.8% MoM, -7.3% YoY. – Destatis.

Germania. Agosto. Gettito fiscale federale -7.5%, Länder -5.5%.

Germania. Agosto. Indice Zew -81.3.

Germania. Giugno. Produzione Industriale -11.7% anno su anno.

Germania. Giugno. Ordini alle fabbriche +27.9% MoM, -11.3% YoY.

Hong Kong e Germania. Sarcastico commento di Destatis.

Germania. Demografia. Tasso di fertilità crollato a 1.54. – Destatis.

Germania. Pil secondo trimestre -11.7% anno su anno. È in recessione.

* * * * * * *

A nostro sommesso avviso, forse potrebbe essere più proficuo se Mutti Angela si occupasse più dell’economia del suo paese che delle beghe in Bielorussia o del caso Navalny.

*


Destatis. Service sector in the 2nd quarter of 2020: turnover down by 12.4% from the previous quarter.

Turnover in selected service branches, 2nd quarter of 2020

-12.4% on the previous quarter

-12.5% on the same quarter of the previous year

Persons employed in selected service branches, 2nd quarter of 2020

-2.6% on the previous quarter

-2.2% on the same quarter of the previous year

*

WIESBADEN – The turnover in selected service branches decreased by a calendar and seasonally adjusted 12.4% in the 2nd quarter of 2020 compared with the 1st quarter of 2020. Based on provisional results, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that the adjusted turnover fell by 12.5% compared with the same quarter of the previous year. Compared with the 4th quarter of 2019, the quarter before restrictions were imposed due to the corona pandemic, turnover was down by 13.8% (calendar and seasonally adjusted).

* * * * * * *


Destatis. Turnover generated by motor vehicle trade and repair shops down 15.8% in the 1st half of 2020 on the 2nd half of 2019.

– Car trade records a decline of 18.0% (price, calendar and seasonally adjusted)

– Increase in sales of bicycles, sports and camping equipment in the 1st half of 2020 despite the corona crisis: +6.8% compared with the 2nd half of 2019

WIESBADEN – The turnover generated by motor vehicle trade and motor vehicle repair shops declined significantly during the coronavirus crisis. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reports that, on a price, calendar and seasonally adjusted basis, the turnover decreased by 15.8% in the 1st half of 2020 compared with the 2nd half of 2019. Car trade was affected most heavily, recording a decline of approximately 18.0%. This was also due to the closure of stores during the lockdown. Real (price adjusted) turnover dropped by nearly half (-45.5%) in particular in April 2020, compared with April 2019. The decline in turnover was less pronounced for car repair shops, which stayed open during the whole spring period. In the 1st half of 2020, turnover decreased by 9.1% compared with the 2nd half of 2019.

Pubblicato in: Agricoltura, Cina, Devoluzione socialismo

Germania. 1° semestre. Esportate in Cina 233.300 ton di carne di maiale.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-09-17.

Berlino Porta Brandemburgo

In sintesi.

– Exports peaked: 233,300 tonnes of pork were exported to China in the first half of 2020 – more than twice the volume of a year earlier

– Overall, 870,700 tonnes of pork to the value of 2.4 billion euros were exported in the first half of 2020

– Pig-keeping in Germany has decreased for years: -3.9% compared with 2010

-Above-average increase in pork prices for German consumers: +8.6% from August 2019 to August 2020

*

La Germania si avvia ad esportare 1.5 milioni di tonnellate di carne suina entro fine anno, per un controvalore di 4.8 miliardi di euro.

Tuttavia, gli allevamenti e gli allevatori non hanno vita facile in Germania.

Germania. Divisa sulla castrazione dei maiali.

«Per odore di verro s’intende quell’odore o sapore sgradevole che si manifesta spesso durante la cottura, o il consumo, di carne o prodotti di trasformazione della carne suina di maschi non castrati, che hanno raggiunto la pubertà …. Da secoli si previene l’odore di verro mediante castrazione. Questa pratica consolidata prevede che si castrino i giovani suinetti all’incirca all’età di una settimana (dopo, per legge è necessario che l’intervento sia effettuato in anestesia, quindi deve effettuarlo un Medico veterinario)».

«Suino, o porco, indica l’animale integro, mentre il termine maiale si riferisce al maschio castrato.

I suini sono molto prolifici: una scrofa ha mediamente tra i 10 ed i 16 suinetti, dopo una gestazione di 114 giorni. Lo svezzamento avviene in circa un mese. La scrofa può partorire due volte all’anno. Il maiale adulto può arrivare ai 300 kg, ma solitamente è macellato quando raggiunge il peso di 100 – 110 kb (filiera leggera), oppure 150 – 180 kg (filiera pesante).

La carne grassa ha un potere nutrizionale di 400 calorie/etto, mentre la carne magra scende a 150 calorie/etto.»

«In termini medi, tanto per rendere l’idea, i suini di allevamento hanno un costo variabile tra gli 80 ed i 150 euro a capo, a seconda del pastone e della osservanza o meno di tutte le direttive. Sempre mediamente, il suino adulto è venduto a 1.2 – 1.4 euro al kilo.»

*


Germania. Ulteriore contrazione degli allevamenti suini -3.7% a/a.

«The Bundestag put off a law requiring anesthetics be used, after Germany’s swine farmers argued they weren’t ready to make the change»

«Young male pigs are often surgically castrated without any form of pain reduction to prevent boar taint, which can change the taste and smell of pork»

«Farmers, particularly from Bavaria and Lower Saxony, said changing the law would mean additional expenses and complications: €2 extra per pig, and the extra time and space the animals need to wake up afterwards»

* * * * * * *


Cina – Germania. L’ipertrofico superego tedesco scontra la dura realtà.

«Foreign Minister Heiko Maas on Tuesday called on China to comply with its human rights obligations and urged Beijing to clarify its position on interning Muslim minorities in prison camps.

Maas’ comments come two days after leaked documents revealed how China suppressed members of its Muslim minority population in Xinjiang province with systematic surveillance and mass internment. 

Rights groups estimate that around a million Uighurs and members of other Muslim minority groups have been detained in so-called reeducation camps in northwest China. 

“China must meet its international obligations on human rights,” Maas said in Berlin.»

* * * * * * *

Questo è il dilemma.

Imporre la visione ideologica oppure commerciare in santa pace?


Destatis. 26.8% of pork exports went to the People’s Republic of China in 1st half of 2020

WIESBADEN – Since the first case of African swine fever was recorded in Brandenburg last Thursday, the meat industry in Germany has been under pressure. Especially the ban on exports to China has hit the domestic enterprises. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reports that the People’s Republic of China became the most important trading partner for pork exports in the first half of 2020. From January to June 2020, a total 233,300 tonnes of pork was exported to China, that was 26.8% of total pork exports. This means that exports to the People’s Republic more than doubled compared with the same period a year earlier (percentage of exports, January to June 2019: 12.9%). Overall, 870,700 tonnes of pork to the value of 2.4 billion euros were exported in the first half of 2020.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Russia, Stati Uniti

Merkel tra l’incudine del Nord Stream 2 ed il martello del caso Navalny.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-09-12.

Annegare 001

Frau Angela Merkel sembrerebbe essersi cacciata in un vicolo cieco, adescata da quella volpe smaliziata di Mr Putin.

Anche se la Cdu è rimontata bene nelle propensioni al voto, la Germania è tuttora politicamente instabile, e questa sua irrequietezza si ripercuote sulla condotta dell’Unione Europea. Se è vero che in Germania di notano timidi segni di ripresa, sarebbe altrettanto vero il dover ammettere come la situazione socio economica sia ancora sofferente, allontanando la possibilità di una ripresa in tempi rapidi.

I moti di piazza di Berlino sono un segnale preoccupante.

In questo frangente aiuta molto l’individuazione di capri espiatori, addossando loro le colpe di tutto ciò che stia accadendo. AfD e i ‘negazionisti’ all’interno, i ‘nemici esterni’ quali immani cospiratori contro la Germania. La teoria del complotto è sempre stata cara ai tedeschi, ma la sua gestione non è per nulla facile. Anche se non ne ha titolo alcuno, Frau Merkel strilla e strepita contro la attuale situazione in Bielorussia ed adesso si  messa nelle mani la patata bollente del caso Navalny.

Bloomberg riassume nei seguenti articoli la situazione al contorono.

*

Angela Merkel Exasperated by Putin as Navalny Lies in a Coma

Merkel Seeks Action Against Russia After Putin Foe Poisoned

Merkel Rejects Scuppering Nord Stream Project Over Navalny Case

Why the World Frets Over Russian Nord Stream Pipeline: QuickTake

*

Il problema è semplicissimo da esporsi, quasi impossibile da risolvere.

Frau Merkel, la Germania e l’Unione Europea dipendono dalle forniture di gas naturale importato dalla Russia, che potrebbe però sospendere anche all’improvviso le forniture. Poi, fattore non trascurabile, la Germania è disarmata, così come la Unione Europea, e l’America non ha nessuna intenzione di morire per l’Europa. Nel converso, la Russia di Mr Putin è un enorme arsenale di armi di ogni tipo, ed il presidente russo lo ricorda spesso e volentieri.

«Merkel’s Russian pipeline dilemma laid bare by poisoning uproar»

«Chancellor faces resistance at home to dropping Nord Stream 2»

«German leader didn’t repeat demand that pipeline be completed»

«The furor over the poisoning of a top Russian dissident has put Angela Merkel’s controversial backing of a Baltic Sea pipeline in the spotlight, as patience with Vladimir Putin’s government hits its limit in Germany»

«The German military’s finding this week that Alexey Navalny was attacked with a novichok nerve agent has triggered calls for the chancellor to wield her biggest stick: withdraw support for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which will ship Russian gas directly to Europe’s largest economy»

«there is still little appetite within Merkel’s coalition to abandon Nord Stream»

«The resistance in her coalition reflects key support for the project from German industry as well as deeper ties with Russia, particularly among the Social Democrats.»

«Merkel, who issued an uncharacteristically sharp rebuke over the novichok finding and pledged a coordinated response among NATO and European Union allies, is keeping her cards close to her chest»

«Merkel didn’t repeat her demand made days earlier that the project should be finished»

«Merkel said, acknowledging the Kremlin’s position that there was no evidence of poisoning»

«Friedrich Merz, a Merkel rival who is campaigning to lead her Christian Democrats, said any construction should be suspended for two years»

«Putin only understands this language, unfortunately»

«On the other side of the divide is President Donald Trump, who has frequently attacked Nord Stream as a conduit for “billions” from Germany to Russia that he says Merkel’s government should be spending on defense»

«Merkel’s government may also have to compensate companies involved in the project.»

«While Russia has claimed Nord Stream 2 is needed because Europe’s own gas production is fast declining, demand on the continent largely remains stable due to the rise of renewables and an influx of liquefied natural gas from producers further afield, including the U.S. One of the main reasons for the link was to bypass Ukraine, a key transit nation, after price disputes in the past left Europeans with gas disruptions in winter»

«Germany is the biggest foreign buyer of Russian gas, which makes up over 40% of its imports»

* * * * * * *

Putin. Mette regolarmente nel sacco Merkel, sodali ed Europa. – Bloomberg.

Germania. Mini Arbeit. Destatis li considera ‘occupati’. Tedeschi brava gente.

Putin ha portato Frau Merkel alla esasperazione. Marktschreier.

BlackRock anticipa l’apertura cinese alla finanza occidentale. 3.4 trilioni in tre anni.

BlackRock anticipa l’apertura cinese alla finanza occidentale. 3.4 trilioni in tre anni.

Oecd (Ocse). Secondo Trimestre pil -9.8%. Ripresa molto lotana.

L’Alleanza per la Rivoluzione Verde in Africa è fallita. Sono alla fame.

Eurozona. Fiducia dei Consumatori -14.7. Più esecrazione che fiducia.

* * * * * * *

Al momento attuale Frau Merkel è davvero nei triboli, e nessuno avrebbe il desiderio di aiutarla.

*


Merkel’s Russian Pipeline Dilemma Laid Bare by Poisoning Uproar.

– Chancellor faces resistance at home to dropping Nord Stream 2

– German leader didn’t repeat demand that pipeline be completed

*

The furor over the poisoning of a top Russian dissident has put Angela Merkel’s controversial backing of a Baltic Sea pipeline in the spotlight, as patience with Vladimir Putin’s government hits its limit in Germany.

The German military’s finding this week that Alexey Navalny was attacked with a novichok nerve agent has triggered calls for the chancellor to wield her biggest stick: withdraw support for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which will ship Russian gas directly to Europe’s largest economy. Despite her growing exasperation with the Kremlin, that may not be so easy.

Even with top lawmakers demanding the project be halted and NATO condemning Moscow for the “appalling” attempted assassination of Navalny, there is still little appetite within Merkel’s coalition to abandon Nord Stream. At the moment, neither Merkel’s Christian Democratic-led bloc nor her Social Democratic partner is likely to rally around the demand, according to three Bundestag officials, who asked not to be identified because of the sensitive nature of the discussions.

That narrows the options for Merkel to send Putin a stern message, as the Navalny poisoning now tops a list of grievances, including a contract killing in a Berlin park in broad daylight last year and a 2015 cyberattack on the Bundestag.

Russian Response

The resistance in her coalition reflects key support for the project from German industry as well as deeper ties with Russia, particularly among the Social Democrats. The German Eastern Business Association, an industry group that supports trade with Moscow, warned against severing ties with Nord Stream, saying Merkel had “good reason” to separate the Navalny affair from the 764-mile undersea pipeline, led by Russia’s Gazprom PJSC.

Merkel, who issued an uncharacteristically sharp rebuke over the novichok finding and pledged a coordinated response among NATO and European Union allies, is keeping her cards close to her chest. Queried on the project at a news conference on Thursday, Merkel didn’t repeat her demand made days earlier that the project should be finished.

“Much will depend on whatever reaction we have from the Russian side,” Merkel said, acknowledging the Kremlin’s position that there was no evidence of poisoning. Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the government was awaiting information from Germany over its findings.

But as Navalny lies in a medically induced coma in a hospital a short drive from Merkel’s chancellery, criticism of the pipeline grew — undermining the official line that it’s mainly a commercial project. Friedrich Merz, a Merkel rival who is campaigning to lead her Christian Democrats, said any construction should be suspended for two years.

“Putin only understands this language, unfortunately,” Merz told Bild newspaper, which in an editorial also called on Merkel to halt the project.

On the other side of the divide is President Donald Trump, who has frequently attacked Nord Stream as a conduit for “billions” from Germany to Russia that he says Merkel’s government should be spending on defense. U.S. congress members are threatening additional sanctions after restrictions imposed in December brought pipe-laying work to a halt.

Potential Compensation

The U.S.’s open hostility to Nord Stream, which has raised complaints in Berlin of violating European sovereignty, is a factor in Berlin’s resolve, according to two Bundestag officials.

Merkel’s government may also have to compensate companies involved in the project. The Nord Stream consortium, which includes BASF SE’s Wintershall DEA unit and Austria’s OMV AG, plans to invest a total of 9.5 billion euros ($11.2 billion) in the pipeline.

In June, before a renewed threat of U.S. sanctions and escalation of tensions between Germany and Russia, state-run Gazprom said it would be able to complete the link this year and start shipments by late 2020 or early 2021.

While Russia has claimed Nord Stream 2 is needed because Europe’s own gas production is fast declining, demand on the continent largely remains stable due to the rise of renewables and an influx of liquefied natural gas from producers further afield, including the U.S. One of the main reasons for the link was to bypass Ukraine, a key transit nation, after price disputes in the past left Europeans with gas disruptions in winter.

Should Nord Stream 2 be scrapped, Russia may have to keep sending gas to Europe via Ukraine, as well as the already operational Nord Stream link.

Germany is the biggest foreign buyer of Russian gas, which makes up over 40% of its imports. That dependence is expected to intensify. Under Merkel’s plans to exit coal and nuclear power, gas is an almost unavoidable stop-gap as the country ramps wind and solar resources.

Pubblicato in: Unione Europea

EU. Germania. Olaf Scholz. Il Recovery Fund è un prestito da rimborsare. Poi , giù tasse da orbi.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-09-11.

Berlino Porta Brandemburgo

«Scholz is the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) candidate to succeed Merkel in 2021 elections»

 * * * * * *


«Vogliamo concludere i negoziati sul bilancio Ue e il Recovery Fund in modo rapido, entro la fine dell’anno, affinché le risorse possano partire da gennaio 2021 …. La situazione economica in Europa è seria, c’è speranza che ci sia una buona ripresa ma non abbiamo ancora superato il peggio …. è necessario spendere il denaro del piano di recupero Ue per uscire dalla crisi»

«Chi assume molti prestiti dovrà poi essere in grado di rimborsarli. All’interno del Consiglio si definiranno tutti gli elementi …. abbiamo fatto un primo passo per finanziarci insieme sui mercati ma servirà fare anche il passo successivo …. e l’Ue dovrà pensare sin da ora nel lungo termine a nuove entrate comuni …. cogliere l’occasione per portare avanti l’integrazione fiscale europea …. La Germania vuole fare progressi sull’Unione bancaria e il mercato unico dei capitali, è un processo utile per le nostre economie»

«Abbiamo bisogno di un accordo internazionale sulla tassa digitale, spero ci sarà una svolta in autunno a livello Ocse, credo che un accordo sia possibile»

«La web tax è necessaria per finanziare le priorità che ci siamo dati …. avrà un impatto anche sull’introduzione di una tassazione minima per le multinazionali in Europa»

«”The Recovery Fund is a real step forward for Germany and for Europe, one we won’t go back on,” Scholz, who is also the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) candidate to succeed Merkel in 2021 elections, told the Funke newspaper group»

«In European Council votes, a “qualified majority” is reached with 55 percent of countries, which must include member states representing 65 percent of the bloc’s 450-million-strong population»


In sintesi.

– Il Recovery Fund deve ancora essere approvato a maggioranza qualificata, con il 55% dei paesi che devono rappresentare il 65% della popolazione dell’Unione.

– Il Recovery Fund è un prestito che gli stati percettori dovranno rendere, oltre ad averne pagato gli interessi.

– In arrivo nuove tasse, tra le quali la web tax.

* * * * * *

È notorio come nei momenti di crisi finanziaria ed economica un robusto aumento delle tasse sia un toccasana per la ripresa.

* * * * * *


Recovery Fund. Scholz, prestiti andranno rimborsati.

“Vogliamo concludere” i negoziati sul bilancio Ue e il Recovery Fund “in modo rapido, entro la fine dell’anno, affinché le risorse possano partire da gennaio 2021”. Lo ha detto il ministro delle Finanze tedesco, Olaf Scholz, intervenendo in videoconferenza davanti alla commissione Economica del Parlamento Ue. “La situazione economica in Europa è seria, c’è speranza che ci sia una buona ripresa ma non abbiamo ancora superato il peggio”, ha sottolineato Scholz, secondo cui “è necessario spendere il denaro del piano di recupero Ue per uscire dalla crisi”.

“Chi assume molti prestiti dovrà poi essere in grado di rimborsarli. All’interno del Consiglio si definiranno tutti gli elementi” ha detto Scholz. Con il Recovery Fund “abbiamo fatto un primo passo per finanziarci insieme sui mercati ma servirà fare anche il passo successivo” sui rimborsi e l’Ue “dovrà pensare sin da ora nel lungo termine a nuove entrate comuni”, ha precisato Scholz, sottolineando che è il momento di “cogliere l’occasione per portare avanti l’integrazione fiscale europea”. “La Germania – ha aggiunto – vuole fare progressi sull’Unione bancaria e il mercato unico dei capitali, è un processo utile per le nostre economie”.

“Abbiamo bisogno di un accordo internazionale sulla tassa digitale, spero ci sarà una svolta in autunno a livello Ocse, credo che un accordo sia possibile” ha detto Scholz. “Ci sono grandi aziende tecnologiche che, pur avendo attività fiorenti, danno un contributo minimo e il modo migliore per cambiare questo è a livello internazionale”, ha detto Scholz, secondo cui “anche gli Stati Uniti sanno che in questo momento non abbiamo bisogno di un’altra crisi o altre tensioni”.

La web tax “è necessaria per finanziare le priorità che ci siamo dati”, ha aggiunto il ministro tedesco, sottolineando che “avrà un impatto anche” sull’introduzione di una “tassazione minima per le multinazionali in Europa”.

*


German finance minister sees ‘no way back’ from EU joint debt.

– The Recovery Fund is a real step forward for Germany and for Europe, one we won’t go back on, says Olaf Scholz, German Finance Minister.

*

German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said Sunday that the European Union’s recovery package financed by joint borrowing was a long-term measure rather than a short-term coronavirus crisis fix, contradicting Chancellor Angela Merkel.

“The Recovery Fund is a real step forward for Germany and for Europe, one we won’t go back on,” Scholz, who is also the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) candidate to succeed Merkel in 2021 elections, told the Funke newspaper group.

Steps taken under the plan, including EU nations agreeing to jointly issue debt “represent fundamental changes, perhaps the biggest changes since the introduction of the euro” single currency around the turn of the millennium, Scholz said.

“These steps forward will inevitably lead to a debate about joint resources for the EU, something that’s a condition for an improved European Union that works better,” he added.

Long and intense debates were needed before the 27 EU countries reached agreement in July on their historic €750-billion ($885 billon) recovery scheme, more than half of which will be paid out as direct grants.

For the first time, leaders gave their green light to joint debt — an idea Germany had long rejected until the COVID-19 pandemic hobbled many European economies that had already spent a decade struggling to recover from the last financial crisis.

Scholz added that the way voting works at EU level should be reformed to make reaching decisions easier.

“The EU must be able to act collectively,” he said. “For that we need to have qualified majority voting in foreign and budgetary policy, rather than enforced unanimity.”

In European Council votes, a “qualified majority” is reached with 55 percent of countries, which must include member states representing 65 percent of the bloc’s 450-million-strong population.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Germania. Ordini Industria Manifatturiera +2.8% MoM, -7.3% YoY. – Destatis.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-09-06.

Destatis__001

In sintesi.

– Germania. Luglio. Ordini Industria Manifatturiera +2.8%, luglio sul giugno precedente

– Germania. Luglio. Ordini Industria Manifatturiera -7.3% sul luglio 2019

– Germania. Luglio. Ordini Industria Manifatturiera -8.2% comparato al febbraio 2020

* * * * * * *

German manufacturing orders lost steam in July.

German manufacturing orders rose for the third consecutive month in July but their recovery lost steam, federal statistics office Destatis said Friday.

Manufacturing orders increased 2.8% in July in adjusted terms after a revised 28.8% expansion in June, according to Destatis. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected July orders to grow at a rate of 5% on the month.

On an annual basis, orders fell 7.3%, adjusted for calendar and price effects.

Despite the improvement, new orders in July were 8.2% lower in seasonally and calendar-adjusted terms compared with February, the month before restrictions were imposed due to the coronavirus pandemic in Germany.

Domestic orders decreased 10.2% while foreign orders grew 14.4% in July, Destatis said.

Due to the coronavirus crisis, factory orders and industrial output in April saw their largest declines since the beginning of the series in January 1991.

German industrial production data for July is due to be published on Monday.

* * * * * * *                

«new orders in July were 8.2% lower in seasonally and calendar-adjusted terms compared with February, the month before restrictions were imposed due to the coronavirus pandemic in Germany»

«Domestic orders decreased 10.2% while foreign orders grew 14.4% in July»

*

Il poco si conta, ed  sempre meglio del niente.

Ci sono segni modesti ma concreti di una iniziale ripresa, ma la strada sembrerebbe prospettarsi molto lunga, sempre poi che l’epidemia da Covid-19 non riprenda la virulenza.

*



Destatis ha rilasciato il Report

Manufacturing in July 2020: new orders up 2.8% on the previous month. New orders still 8.2% below pre-crisis level.

Press release No. 339 of 4 September 2020

July 2020 (provisional): new orders in manufacturing

+2.8% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)

-7.3% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)

June 2020 (revised): new orders in manufacturing

+28.8% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)

-10.6% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)

*

WIESBADEN – According to provisional results of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), real (price adjusted) new orders increased by a seasonally and calendar adjusted 2.8% in July 2020 compared with June 2020. Compared with July 2019, the decrease in calendar adjusted new orders amounted to 7.3%. Excluding major orders, real new orders in manufacturing seasonally and calendar adjusted were 6.2% higher than in the previous month.

Compared with February 2020, the month before restrictions were imposed due to the corona pandemic in Germany, new orders in July 2020 were 8.2% lower in seasonally and calendar adjusted terms.

Domestic orders decreased by 10.2% and foreign orders rose by 14.4% in July 2020 on the previous month. New orders from the euro area went up 7.3%, and new orders from other countries increased by 19.2% compared with June 2020.

In July 2020 the manufacturers of intermediate goods saw new orders increase by 9.5% compared with June 2020. The manufacturers of capital goods saw a decrease of 0.4% on the previous month. Regarding consumer goods, new orders rose 0.2%.

New orders in the automotive industry increased in July 2020 (+8.5% on the previous month). However, new orders were still 2.4% lower than in February 2020.

For June 2020, revision of the preliminary outcome resulted in an increase of 28.8% compared with May 2020 (provisional: +27.9%).

Turnover +5.2% (seasonally adjusted) on the previous month

According to provisional results, price-adjusted turnover in manufacturing in July 2020 went up a seasonally and calendar adjusted 5.2% on the previous month. In June 2020, the corrected figure showed an increase of 13.2%, compared to May 2020 (provisional: -12.5%).

Compared with February 2020, the month before restrictions were imposed due to the corona pandemic in Germany, turnover in July 2020 was 9.8% lower in seasonally and calendar adjusted terms.

Turnover in the automotive industry increased markedly in July 2020 (+14.3% on the previous month). However, turnover were still 7.8% lower than in February 2020.

More information on industry turnover in other EU Member States is provided in Eurostat’s database. Germany is among the first countries to provide Eurostat with these monthly data.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Fisco e Tasse

Germania. Agosto. Gettito fiscale federale -7.5%, Länder -5.5%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-09-04.

2020-09-01__ Germania. Gettito. 001

In sintesi.

– Agosto. Gettito fiscale federale -7.5%

– Agosto. Gettito fiscale di Länder e Municipi -5.5%.

* * * * * * *

2020-09-01__ Germania. Gettito. 002

Al lockdown ed alla sospensione delle attività produttive consegue implacabilmente una corrispondente diminuzione del gettito fiscale.

La ripresa si presenta tutta in salita.

*


Destatis. Revenue from joint taxes down 3% in July 2020 on February 2020. Seasonally and calendar adjusted data show decrease of federal tax revenue by 7.5%.

Due to the consequences of the corona pandemic, cash revenue from joint taxes in Germany was down by 3% in July after calendar and seasonal adjustment compared with the pre-crisis month of February this year. These tax receipts are distributed among the Federation, Länder and municipalities. They include taxes on turnover and income. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that the revenue from federal and Länder taxes dropped by 7.5% and 5.5%, respectively. The figures for July are the first seasonally and calendar adjusted results to be published for these types of taxes.

Pubblicato in: Diplomazia, Geopolitica Mondiale, Putin, Russia

Putin. Mette regolarmente nel sacco Merkel, sodali ed Europa. – Bloomberg.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-09-03.

Putin 1002

Da molti punti di vista Mr Putin assomma in sé le doti di Armand-Jean du Plessise del suo fido consigliere François Leclerc du Tremblay.

Con studiata naturalezza, Putin alterna comportamenti visibili da cardinal di Richelieu, lasciando in altri momenti intravedere un operoso Padre Giuseppe. Prima fa vedere i fatti, poi dice che li avrebbe compiuti.

Sarebbe sufficiente leggere le sue relazioni ai convegni di Valdai, ed i suoi interventi pubblici, per poterne capire la psicologia. Ne riportiamo un breve florilegio.

Fonti di informazione e difficoltà di tenersi informati.

*

Putin asfalta Megyn Kelly. Una intervista goduriosa, da risentirsi e rivedersi con cura.

Vladimir Putin distrugge la giornalista pagata per metterlo al muro.

Putin il Grande. Bloomberg lo incorona Master of the Middle East.

Occidente che muta. 01. Putin, Valdai e la Santa Pasqua.

Valdai. Mr Putin delinea la futura politica estera russa.

Putin. La strategia delle matrioske.

*

Mikhail Kalashnikov. Mosca erige il monumento che i liberal avrebbero abbattuto.

Russia. Il trionfo della Tradizione. Putin e la religione.

Russia, Putin inaugura statua di San Vladimiro il Grande 

Russia. Putin il rispetto della memoria storica

* * * * * * *

Per capire i russi, sarebbe molto utile leggere questo articolo:

Russia. Capire un popolo per capire una nazione.

Poi ascoltate bene musica e parole di questa canzone russa:

Katyusha Катюшa Dmitri Hvorostovsky.

Chi non parlasse il russo, cerchi le parole: chi le capisca bene, conoscerebbe a fondo i russi.

* * * * * * *

«Putin wins any staring contest with Germany and Europe»

«The Russian president wants to be feared, not believed or trusted»

«That’s why Germany and the EU are so ineffective against him»

«Let no one say that Angela Merkel isn’t onto Vladimir Putin’s dirty tricks and cynicism. As a former East German, the chancellor speaks Russian just as the Russian president, a former KGB offer stationed in Dresden, is fluent in German»

«Merkel’s done her best over the years to call Putin out. When he seized Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and then instigated the fighting in its eastern Donbas region, she took the West’s lead in condemning the breach and containing the crisis»

«Merkel demanded Russian answers but received none.»

«The doctors in Berlin have confirmed that they found a cholinesterase inhibitor in Navalny — though there’s no proof of course that Putin had anything to do with getting this nerve agent into his body»

«On cue, a Kremlin spokesperson feigned astonishment that “our German colleagues are in such a hurry in using the word poisoning.” …. provocation by Germany and other members of the EU aimed at creating more allegations against our country»

«The getting away with it is the point»

«Neither Putin nor anybody who works for him seriously pretends, or actually wants to convince skeptics, that they’re telling the truth»

«The point instead, as for Big Brother, is to display the naked power that allows them to abolish truth with impunity»

«The Kremlin intimidates others by showing that it is in control of defining ‘reality’»

«If nothing is true, then anything is possible»

«We are left with the sense that we don’t know what Putin will do next — that he’s unpredictable and thus dangerous»

«Any potential enemy will fear being the next Navalny. The game, in short, is asymmetrical.»

«Thanks to his biography of serving as a KGB officer in a communist regime — and pining for it — Putin has no scruples»

«That gives him the edge in matters of life and death. And both leaders know it.»         

* * * * * * *

«We are left with the sense that we don’t know what Putin will do next — that he’s unpredictable and thus dangerous»

Tutti i pensieri e le azioni delle persone intelligenti hanno dell’imprevedibile.

Chi mai si sarebbe potuto immaginare che guardando un candelabro oscillare Galileo ne avrebbe dedotto la legge del pendolo e, quindi, proposto il concetto di forza di gravità?

Merkel, sodali ed europei pensano secondo archetipi ideologici che li imbrigliano nell’ideazione e nella prassi: sono facilmente prevedibili e sempre scollati dal reale. Mr Putin sa sempre cosa stiano pensando, come lo pensino, e come poi lo attueranno. Preparar loro le polpette avvelenate è gioco da ragazzi.

In questo l’articolo di Bloomberg coglie solo un aspetto della personalità di Mr Putin. Non riesce a vedere il Putin che è russo.

*


Putin Wins Any Staring Contest with Germany and Europe.

The Russian president wants to be feared, not believed or trusted. That’s why Germany and the EU are so ineffective against him.

Let no one say that Angela Merkel isn’t onto Vladimir Putin’s dirty tricks and cynicism. As a former East German, the chancellor speaks Russian just as the Russian president, a former KGB offer stationed in Dresden, is fluent in German. They’ve known each other for decades. She still recalls vividly his attempt during a visit in 2007 to intimidate her, a known cynophobe, by letting his black Labrador Koni sniff her.

So as the worldly-wise leader of a country that’s often naively Russophile, Merkel’s done her best over the years to call Putin out. When he seized Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and then instigated the fighting in its eastern Donbas region, she took the West’s lead in condemning the breach and containing the crisis.

When Russia kept feeding the West, including Germany, disinformation and fake news, she let him know that she didn’t like it, but kept up the dialogue. After a Russian cyberattack on the Bundestag and her own e-mail account, Merkel called such methods “outrageous.” And after a gangland-style execution last summer of a Chechen who had fought against Russian forces — in a Berlin park in broad daylight — Merkel demanded Russian answers but received none.

And then, this month, came the poisoning of Alexey Navalny, the most prominent figure in Russia’s remaining opposition movement. Merkel’s reaction has been stronger than that of any other Western leader. She’s had Navalny airlifted out of Russia and brought to a clinic in Berlin, where she’s put guards around his bed.

But now, with Navalny still in a coma, all sides are reverting to the usual script. The doctors in Berlin have confirmed that they found a cholinesterase inhibitor in Navalny — though there’s no proof of course that Putin had anything to do with getting this nerve agent into his body. Merkel and her foreign minister, Heiko Maas, immediately and “urgently” demanded that Russia investigate this poisoning “in a completely transparent way.”

On cue, a Kremlin spokesperson feigned astonishment that “our German colleagues are in such a hurry in using the word poisoning.” The speaker of the lower house of Russia’s parliament suggested the whole episode may be just another “provocation by Germany and other members of the EU aimed at creating more allegations against our country.” And everything goes on as usual.

In these recurring charades between the West and Russia, and in particular between Merkel and Putin, everybody knows the game, and yet everybody feels the need to keep playing it. It’s like a nightmare from which there is no waking up, as in George Orwell’s “1984.” Like the Ministry of Truth in the novel, Putin’s Kremlin can insist that “war is peace, freedom is slavery, ignorance is strength” — and get away with it.

The getting away with it is the point. Neither Putin nor anybody who works for him seriously pretends, or actually wants to convince skeptics, that they’re telling the truth. The point instead, as for Big Brother, is to display the naked power that allows them to abolish truth with impunity.

“The Kremlin intimidates others by showing that it is in control of defining ‘reality’,” as Peter Pomerantsev, a Soviet-born British author, has been pointing out since 2014. “If nothing is true, then anything is possible. We are left with the sense that we don’t know what Putin will do next — that he’s unpredictable and thus dangerous. We’re rendered stunned, spun, and flummoxed by the Kremlin’s weaponization of absurdity and unreality.”

For these purposes it’s moot whether Putin is acting out of a sense of strength or vulnerability. Unlike Big Brother, he hasn’t yet squashed all opposition. In Russia’s far east, people are demonstrating. In next-door Belarus, citizens are rebelling against the dictatorship of his geopolitical buddy, Alexander Lukashenko.

But Putin knows he can disturb any “narrative” that doesn’t suit him. Nobody knows where next he will cause mischief, and even massive human suffering — in Syria or Libya, in the Baltic, on the streets of Berlin or in Belarus. Any potential enemy will fear being the next Navalny.

The game, in short, is asymmetrical. Thanks to her biography of growing up in a communist regime and hating it, Merkel values truth and freedom, and she understands that “the West” only lives as an idea, one that couldn’t survive the abolition of reality. Thanks to his biography of serving as a KGB officer in a communist regime — and pining for it — Putin has no scruples. That gives him the edge in matters of life and death. And both leaders know it.

Pubblicato in: Economia e Produzione Industriale, Stati Uniti

Usa. Agosto. Vendite annualizzate autoveicoli nazionali 15.2 milioni.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-09-02.  

2020-09-02__ Usa Auto 001

Motor Intelligence ha rilasciato i dati annualizzati relativi alle vendite di autoveicoli fabbricati negli Usa.

Ad agosto erano stati venduti 15.2 milioni di veicoli di produzione nazionale, dato annualizzato, valore di poco inferiore ai 16.7 milioni annualizzati riportati al 1° di aprile.

In questo settore la ripresa sembrerebbe essere cosa fatta.

2020-09-02__ Usa Auto 002

* * * * * *

Solo per comparazione, si guardino gli andamenti delle vendite di autovetture nei principali stati del blocco europeo. Francia -19.8%, Germania -32.3%, Italia -23.1%.

2020-09-01__ Immatricolazioni Auto 001