Russia. I Generali Moroz e Zima non sono ancora arrivati. Ma siamo solo agli inizi.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-01-08.

«Russia’s winter defeated Napoleon Bonaparte and Adolf Hitler»

«The bitter season has played such a historic role against the nation’s enemies that it now enjoys military rank, popularly known as General Moroz and General Zima (that is, “frost” and “winter”)»

«If President Vladimir Putin was counting on Moroz and Zima, the commanders have yet to show up at the Western front»

«Mild weather has so far crushed heating demand — and soothed the European market panic about supply that saw natural gas prices shoot up to record highs»

«On New Year’s Eve, the mean temperature in north-west Europe was nearly 12 degrees Celsius, about 9 degrees above the 30-year average»

«For Europe, which imports 40% of its gas from Russia, it has been an economic and geopolitical reprieve»

«From an all-time high of nearly 188 euros ($212.95) per megawatt hour on Dec. 21, gas plunged to a low of €65.40 per MWh on Dec. 31, an unprecedented 65% drop in just eight trading days»

«Gas isn’t just used for heating and industries — Europe burns lots of it to generate electricity»

«So far, though, the less-than-frigid season has reduced the risk that gas in storage would plunge to the much-feared lows»

«As things stand, a normal winter would leave stocks at around 240 TWh by the end of March — still the third lowest level ever, but not as bad as many feared»

«Temperatures are expected to drop to seasonal levels again today, increasing demand»

«Gas prices have climbed up back to nearly €100 per MWh — still about 45% below the most recent peak, but also far above the 2010-2019 average of roughly €20 per MWh»

«Gazprom, the Kremlin-controlled gas exporter, has reduced supplies into Europe significantly in recent days in response to lower demand»

«Look at the calendar: spring in the northern hemisphere is still 73 days away, Generals Moroz and Zima have time to show their mettle»

* * * * * * *

L’inverno è appena iniziato.

Diamo tempo al tempo, ed i Generali Moroz e Zima possono sempre dispiegare tutta la loro forza.

* * * * * * *

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Russia’s Winter Generals Have Yet to Show Up at the Gas War.

Russia’s winter defeated Napoleon Bonaparte and Adolf Hitler. The bitter season has played such a historic role against the nation’s enemies that it now enjoys military rank, popularly known as General Moroz and General Zima (that is, “frost” and “winter”). In the great European natural gas battle of 2021-22, however, the weather has so far worked against Moscow. If President Vladimir Putin was counting on Moroz and Zima, the commanders have yet to show up at the Western front.

Mild weather has so far crushed heating demand — and soothed the European market panic about supply that saw natural gas prices shoot up to record highs. In recent days, London, Berlin and Paris have enjoyed a spring-like weather. On New Year’s Eve, the mean temperature in north-west Europe was nearly 12 degrees Celsius, about 9 degrees above the 30-year average. A few cities were even warmer: Zurich and Frankfurt stood at 13 degrees Celsius, compared with a normal level of around freezing for both. For Europe, which imports 40% of its gas from Russia, it has been an economic and geopolitical reprieve.

From an all-time high of nearly 188 euros ($212.95) per megawatt hour on Dec. 21, gas plunged to a low of €65.40 per MWh on Dec. 31, an unprecedented 65% drop in just eight trading days. Gas isn’t just used for heating and industries — Europe burns lots of it to generate electricity. And so the mild weather has avoided the worse-case scenario: blackouts. U.S. shiploads of liquefied natural gas (LNG) have also helped push prices down – quite an irony since European countries vehemently opposed fracking, the technique that has unlocked American gas.

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Before the spell of mild winter, Europe was heading into a full-blown crisis: Gas inventories were well-below the 5- and 10-year averages. On Christmas Day, Europe had the equivalent of 629 terawatts hours of gas in storage. If a normal winter ensued, estimated inventories would fall to below 200 TWh by the end of the heating season in late March. That would be the lowest on record. A colder-than-normal winter, like the one in 2017-18, would have cut gas stocks to about 90 TWh, a shivering 50% below the previous all-time low. Many traders said the stability of the gas network would be jeopardized if inventories dropped that low. They expected prices to rise to ultra-high levels and result in “demand destruction” — with energy-intensive industries like aluminum smelters and glass manufactures forced to shut down. Spurred by the alarm, gas prices jumped to an all-time high on Dec. 21.

So far, though, the less-than-frigid season has reduced the risk that gas in storage would plunge to the much-feared lows. Over New Year, European gas stocks actually increased for four consecutive days, something that had never happened before over the same period. As things stand, a normal winter would leave stocks at around 240 TWh by the end of March — still the third lowest level ever, but not as bad as many feared. A cold winter would cut them to about 140 TWh, a record low, but above the catastrophic 100 TWh barrier associated with blackouts.

Europe may have avoided a calamity — but the continent isn’t out of the woods. Temperatures are expected to drop to seasonal levels again today, increasing demand. Gas prices have climbed up back to nearly €100 per MWh — still about 45% below the most recent peak, but also far above the 2010-2019 average of roughly €20 per MWh. Regional gas inventories are likely to end the 2021-22 winter extremely low, so high prices are going to continue into the summer, and likely into the 2022-23 winter, too.

Meanwhile, Russia is keeping a tight grip on the region. Gazprom, the Kremlin-controlled gas exporter, has reduced supplies into Europe significantly in recent days in response to lower demand. Gas hasn’t flowed into Germany via the key Yamal-Europe pipeline for 15 consecutive days — something that had never happened in the middle of the winter. An additional choke point: the thousands of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine, through which much of Europe’s gas transits.

In the U.S. television drama The West Wing, the fictitious American President Josiah Bartlet asks the Russian ambassador how Moscow cultivated its geopolitical nerve. “From a long, hard winter, Mr. President,” said the envoy. Look at the calendar: spring in the northern hemisphere is still 73 days away. Generals Moroz and Zima have time to show their mettle.

Cina. Nel 2030 disporrà di oltre mille testate atomiche. Un arsenale offensivo.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-01-01.

«China is building new nuclear weapons much faster than previously predicted, already has a “nascent nuclear triad,” and will field more than 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030»

«the accelerating pace of the [People’s Republic of China’s] nuclear expansion may enable [it] to have up to 700 deliverable nuclear warheads by 2027, … [and] at least 1,000 warheads by 2030, exceeding the pace and size»

«In its last report, the Pentagon said China had 200 nuclear warheads and was expected to double that number by the end of the decade»

«China is “developing a first-strike capability.”»

«China’s plan for now is to develop a “credible second-strike” capacity with nuclear weapons»

«According to a State Department disclosure in early October, the U.S. has 3,750 nuclear warheads, down from 3,805 a year earlier and 3,822 in 2018»

«The Pentagon said the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Forces are developing new intercontinental ballistic missiles that will “significantly improve” their overall force, and they will be equipped with multiple independently targeted warheads, necessitating an increase in warhead production»

«China is expanding its inventory of road-mobile DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missiles, which can strike ground or maritime targets, and in 2020, fielded its first hypersonic weapons system, the DF-17 hypersonic glide vehicle-capable medium-range ballistic missile»

«China has also built up its H-8 bomber force, adding a “nuclear air-launched ballistic missile,” effectively establishing China’s own version of a triad, along with intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine-launched ballistic missiles»

«China’s nuclear missile submarine fleet includes six boats, each of which can carry 12 CSS-N-14 (JL-2) sea-launched ballistic missiles»

«The H-6N can carry six land-attack cruise missiles with a range allowing it to hit targets “in the second island chain” from airfields in the mainland»

* * * * * * * *

Armamenti Nucleari. È in atto una corsa al riarmo per la prossima guerra.

Cina. Mica solo armamenti nuovi di zecca.

Cina. Starebbe (potrebbe) trasferendo armamenti atomici nelle isole artificiali.

Cina. Gli Usa sono indifesi rispetto ai missili ipersonici suborbitali. – Generale Milley.

Cina. I lanciatori dei missili ipersonici DF-17 sono diventati stealth.

Cina. Testato un missile atomico ipersonico suborbitale. Usa colti di sorpresa.

Biden dice di essere ‘preoccupato’ dei missili ipersonici cinesi e russi. La prossima guerra.

Missili a 6 volte la velocità del suono, testati in Cina nuovi velivoli ipersonici

* * *

A quanto sarebbe dato di sapere, la Cina ha un problema di breve termine che si embrica su quello a medio-lungo termine.

L’obiettivo immediato sarebbe il poter disporre di una forza dissuasiva credibile, che possa scoraggiare un attacco esterno.

L’obiettivo di medio-lungo termine sembrerebbe consistere nel poter disporre di una credibile ed efficiente forza nucleare di attacco.

* * * * * * * *

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China’s Nuclear Development Outstrips Predictions; 1,000 Warheads by 2030.

China is building new nuclear weapons much faster than previously predicted, already has a “nascent nuclear triad,” and will field more than 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, according to the Pentagon’s 2021 report on China’s military power, released Nov. 3.  

According to a Pentagon briefing paper highlighting changes from the 2020 edition of the report, “the accelerating pace of the [People’s Republic of China’s] nuclear expansion may enable [it] to have up to 700 deliverable nuclear warheads by 2027, … [and] at least 1,000 warheads by 2030, exceeding the pace and size” that the Defense Department previously projected. China is also shifting to a “launch on warning” posture for its nuclear weapons.

In its last report, the Pentagon said China had 200 nuclear warheads and was expected to double that number by the end of the decade, indicating nearly a trebling of its deployment pace in the coming years. Moreover, the new document only captures developments up to December 2020, and its 2021 release was about two months late, the Pentagon said. The pace may have accelerated even further since.

Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall, speaking at AFA’s Air, Space & Cyber Conference in September, foreshadowed the report, saying that, in his view, China is “developing a first-strike capability.”

The Pentagon was not as alarming, saying China’s plan for now is to develop a “credible second-strike” capacity with nuclear weapons, meaning enough could survive a first strike by the U.S. to retaliate with “multiple rounds of counterstrike, deterring an adversary with the threat of unacceptable damage.”

Even at 1,000 nuclear weapons, though, China will not have achieved parity with the U.S. in terms of warheads, according to a senior defense official who briefed reporters ahead of the report’s release.

According to a State Department disclosure in early October, the U.S. has 3,750 nuclear warheads, down from 3,805 a year earlier and 3,822 in 2018. The U.S. inventory has declined due to the decay of the warheads’ plutonium cores and a replacement pace that doesn’t keep up with retirements.

The Pentagon said the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Forces are developing new intercontinental ballistic missiles that will “significantly improve” their overall force, and they will be equipped with multiple independently targeted warheads, necessitating an increase in warhead production.

China is expanding its “capacity to produce and separate plutonium by constructing faster breeder reactors and reprocessing facilities,” the report said.

The PLARF “has commenced building at least three new solid-fueled ICBM silo fields, which will cumulatively contain hundreds of new ICBM silos,” the report noted. Concurrently, China is expanding its inventory of road-mobile DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missiles, which can strike ground or maritime targets, and in 2020, fielded “its first hypersonic weapons system, the DF-17 hypersonic glide vehicle-capable medium-range ballistic missile.”

In August, China tested a globe-circling hypersonic weapon, which may have been the DF-17.

China has also built up its H-8 bomber force, adding a “nuclear air-launched ballistic missile,” effectively establishing China’s own version of a triad, along with intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine-launched ballistic missiles.

The PRC also plans to “increase the peacetime readiness of its nuclear forces by moving to a launch-on-warning (LOW) posture with an expanded silo-based force,” the paper said.

There “clearly has been a change” in China’s approach to nuclear weapons, the defense official said. Besides diversifying its nuclear arsenal, China is also expanding the underlying infrastructure needed to make warheads and connect its weapons with a command and control network, he said.

“The nuclear expansion the PRC is undertaking is certainly very concerning to us,” the official asserted. It “raises some questions … They haven’t really explained why they’re doing it, [and] … we’d like to have more insight into their intentions.”

Compared to China’s historic stockpiles, “they’re moving in a direction that substantially exceeds where they’ve been before in numbers and capabilities,” the official said. This “reinforces the importance of pursuing some practical measures for risk reduction.” While China has a “no first use” of nuclear weapons policy, it is “suggesting in some of their professional military writings that maybe that wouldn’t apply” in all circumstances, the official said. Given that, and the shift to a launch-on-warning posture, “That just makes it more important that responsible powers that seek those capabilities … need to have discussions with each other,” he said.

The official declined to say more because the Nuclear Posture Review is ongoing, and the issue of China’s growing nuclear force will be dealt with in the resulting document.

The U.S. has urged China in recent years to participate in joint strategic arms talks with the U.S. and Russia, but China has declined, saying it is not interested. China is signatory to no nuclear arms agreements or protocols.

The report said China fields about 100 ICBMs in different basing modes, including roll-out and road-mobile missiles. It “appears to be doubling the numbers of launchers in some ICBM units.” The PLA is developing a “DF-5C and may be developing a DF-32 ICBM.”

China’s nuclear missile submarine fleet includes six boats, each of which can carry 12 CSS-N-14 (JL-2) sea-launched ballistic missiles. The next generation of SSBN submarine likely goes into production “in the early 2020s.” The new model will likely also have upgraded missiles.

The People’s Liberation Army Air Forces have operationally fielded the H-6N bomber—a derivative of Russia’s Tu-16 Badger bomber—“providing a platform for the air component” of China’s nascent triad. The H-6N force is developing tactics and the aircraft is equipped with an air-refueling probe. It also has a recessed space in the fuselage likely meant “for external carriage of an ALBM believed to be nuclear capable.”

The H-6N can carry six land-attack cruise missiles with a range allowing it to hit targets “in the second island chain” from airfields in the mainland. The H-6K is being equipped with YJ-12 anti-ship cruise missiles to hit targets in the same range, “significantly extending” the Chinese Navy’s reach.

The PLAAF “is also developing new medium- and long-range stealth bombers to strike regional and global targets,” the report said. While this was publicly announced in 2016, “it may take more than a decade to develop this type of advanced bomber,” the Pentagon said.

UAE. Usa sospende la vendita degli F-35. Gli Emirati hanno rapporti con la Cina.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-12-23.

Dotarsi di sofisticati apparecchi da caccia è solo marginalmente un fatto tecnico ed economico.

Significa aprirsi ad una partnership di durata ultradecennale. Non è solo questione di pezzi di ricambio e manutenzione: significa soprattutto la dipendenza dalla  rete delle comunicazioni militari e dai sistemi radar, ivi compresi quelli satellitari.

Infine, dopo la fuga dall’Afganistan e l’abbandono degli alleati, ben pochi si fidano ancora di Joe Biden.

* * * * * * *

È stato Putin a suggerire agli Usa di dotarsi degli F-35.

Emirati Arabi. Ordinati 60 Rafale alla Francia.

* * * * * * *

«U.S. partnership with the UAE was more strategic and complex than a weapons sale»

«The UAE had signed an agreement to purchase 50 F-35 jets and up to 18 armed drones»

«The United Arab Emirates has informed the United States that it will suspend discussions to acquire F-35 fighter jets, a UAE official said on Tuesday, part of a $23 billion deal that also includes drones and other advanced munitions»

«The sale of 50 F-35 warplanes made by Lockheed Martin to the UAE had slowed amid concerns in Washington over Abu Dhabi’s relationship with China, including use of Huawei 5G technology in the country»

«The U.S. remains the UAE’s preferred provider for advanced defense requirements and discussions for the F-35 may be re-opened in the future»

«for several months sticking points between the United States and the UAE revolved around how the stealthy jets can be deployed and how much of the sophisticated F-35 technology the Emiratis will be allowed to take advantage of»

* * * * * * *

Come abbiamo detto, il problema è geopolitico militare.

Tuttavia i tempi sono mutati, e sarebbe impossibile il non prendere atto che la Cina esiste.

* * * * * * *

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UAE told the U.S. it will suspend talks on F-35 jets – Emirati official.

Dubai/Washington, Dec 14 (Reuters) – The United Arab Emirates has informed the United States that it will suspend discussions to acquire F-35 fighter jets, a UAE official said on Tuesday, part of a $23 billion deal that also includes drones and other advanced munitions.

The sale of 50 F-35 warplanes made by Lockheed Martin (LMT.N) to the UAE had slowed amid concerns in Washington over Abu Dhabi’s relationship with China, including use of Huawei 5G technology in the country.

“Technical requirements, sovereign operational restrictions, and cost/benefit analysis led to the re-assessment,” the UAE official said in a statement to Reuters that confirmed a report in the Wall Street Journal.

“The U.S. remains the UAE’s preferred provider for advanced defense requirements and discussions for the F-35 may be re-opened in the future,” the official said, adding there were discussions to “address mutual defense security conditions for the acquisition”.

A person briefed on the negotiations said for several months sticking points between the United States and the UAE revolved around how the stealthy jets can be deployed and how much of the sophisticated F-35 technology the Emiratis will be allowed to take advantage of. The person asked not to be identified by name or by association with either country.

The UAE had signed an agreement to purchase 50 F-35 jets and up to 18 armed drones, people familiar with the situation told Reuters in January.

Earlier, at the Pentagon, spokesman John Kirby had said the U.S. partnership with the UAE was more strategic and complex than a weapons sale and Washington was committed to working with Abu Dhabi to address their questions.

“We will always insist, as a matter of statutory requirements and policy, on a variety of end use requirements,” Kirby said.

He added that a meeting between U.S. and UAE officials at the Pentagon later this week was set to be about broad topics but anticipated that the weapons sale would come up.

Kirby referred questions about details of specific arms sales to the State Department.

A State Department official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that the Biden administration was committed to the proposed sales of the F-35 aircraft along with the MQ-9B and munitions.

“We are hopeful that we can work through any outstanding issues,” the official said.

Lockheed Martin Corp referred requests for comment to the U.S. and UAE governments.

The UAE, one of Washington’s closest Middle East allies, had long expressed interest in acquiring the stealthy F-35 jets, and was promised a chance to buy them in a side deal when it agreed to normalize relations with Israel in August 2020.

Russia. Il missile ipersonico Zirkon viaggia adesso a Mach 9.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-12-23.

Lo Zirkon è un’arma progettata per neutralizzare unità navali maggiori come portaerei, incrociatori e cacciatorpediniere a lunghe distanze. È lanciabile sia da terra, sia da aerei, sia da sottomarini, anche in immersione.

* * * * * * *

«Lo Zirkon è il primo missile da crociera ipersonico al mondo, in grado di effettuare lunghi voli aerodinamici, manovrando in strati densi dell’atmosfera e utilizzando esclusivamente la propria potenza di propulsione»

«La velocità massima del missile raggiunge circa 9 volte la velocità del suono. La sua gittata massima è di 1.000 chilometri»

«”Ora abbiamo testato con successo, e dall’inizio dell’anno ne saremo dotati, nuovi missili ipersonici navali a velocità di 9 Mach”, ha detto Putin»

«Le cose sono arrivate al punto che i sistemi di difesa anti-missile sono schierati in Polonia e Romania, ed i lanciatori che sono lì, gli Mk-41, possono anche essere equipaggiati con sistemi di attacco Tomahawk»

«Questo è una minaccia per noi. Si tratta di dati di fatto, cose ovvie»

«In risposta, siamo stati costretti, voglio sottolineare questo, siamo stati costretti a iniziare a sviluppare armi ipersoniche. Questa è la nostra risposta»

* * * * * * *

Cina. Gli Usa sono indifesi rispetto ai missili ipersonici suborbitali. – Generale Milley.

Cina. I lanciatori dei missili ipersonici DF-17 sono diventati stealth.

Cina. Testato un missile atomico ipersonico suborbitale. Usa colti di sorpresa.

Biden dice di essere ‘preoccupato’ dei missili ipersonici cinesi e russi. La prossima guerra.

Armamenti Nucleari. È in atto una corsa al riarmo per la prossima guerra.

Russia. Nuovi o perfezionati missili ipersonici. Kh-47M2 Kinzhal e 3M22 Zircon.

Russia. I missili intercontinentali ipersonici Avangard sono operativi.

Russian anti-satellite missile test draws condemnation

Russia’s city-destroying super-nuke Avangard that travels at TWENTY times the speed of sound will be ready for take-off next year

Missili ipersonici: rottura dell’attuale stabilità strategica tra Stati Uniti, Cina e Russia e rivoluzione nelle tattiche militari

Superpotenze militari. Gli equilibri sono rotti. Una guerra è opzione appetibile.

* * * * * * *

La velocità del suono varia a seconda del mezzo: ad esempio, il suono si propaga più velocemente nell’acqua che non nell’aria. In termini medi, la velocità del suono è 331.2 metri al secondo, ossia 1,192.32 km/ora.

Muoversi nella atmosfera ad una velocità di Mach 9, significa viaggiare a 10,730.88 km all’ora.

Ciò significa che lo Zirkon copre i mille kilometri di gittata in un decimo di ora, ossia circa sei minuti primi.

In altri termini, non lascia nemmeno il tempo di individuarlo, ammesso che si disponga di radar capaci di tracciarlo.

Ci si pensi bene.

Gli equilibri militari tra Russia, Cina e Stati Uniti sono rotti, rendendo sempre più verosimile la possibilità di una guerra nucleare.

* * * * * * *

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Putin: presto la Russia avrà nuovo missile ipersonico con velocità massima di 9 Mach.

All’inizio di novembre, il presidente russo Vladimir Putin ha dichiarato che i test dei missili ipersonici Zirkon sono quasi ultimati.

Vladimir Putin ha affermato che nel prossimo futuro la Russia avrà a disposizioni armi ipersoniche con una velocità di 9 Mach.

“Ora abbiamo testato con successo, e dall’inizio dell’anno ne saremo dotati, nuovi missili ipersonici navali a velocità di 9 Mach”, ha detto Putin.

Mosca sta sviluppando armi ipersoniche, in risposta alle azioni della Nato, che rappresentano una minaccia per la Russia, ha affermato il presidente Vladimir Putin.

“Le cose sono arrivate al punto che i sistemi di difesa anti-missile sono schierati in Polonia e Romania, ed i lanciatori che sono lì, gli Mk-41, possono anche essere equipaggiati con sistemi di attacco Tomahawk. Questo è una minaccia per noi. Si tratta di dati di fatto, cose ovvie. Nonostante tutte le nostre richieste di non farlo, cosa è successo? Quello che vediamo ora. In risposta, siamo stati costretti, voglio sottolineare questo, siamo stati costretti a iniziare a sviluppare armi ipersoniche. Questa è la nostra risposta.” ha osservato il presidente russo.

A sua volta, il portavoce del Cremlino Dmitry Peskov ha indicato un aumento delle “azioni provocatorie”. In particolare, Peskov ha fatto riferimento all’intensificarsi della ricognizione aerea della Nato nella regione del Mar Nero.

Lo Zirkon è il primo missile da crociera ipersonico al mondo, in grado di effettuare lunghi voli aerodinamici, manovrando in strati densi dell’atmosfera e utilizzando esclusivamente la propria potenza di propulsione. La velocità massima del missile raggiunge circa 9 volte la velocità del suono. La sua gittata massima è di 1.000 chilometri.

Regno Unito ed EU. Non difenderanno militarmente l’Ukraina se fosse invasa.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-12-22.

«→→ That would mean Nato not playing any role at all in any of the three Baltic republics or Poland, as well as having to abandon any plans for Ukraine and Georgia to eventually join the Western alliance ←←»

«Ukraine was not a member of Nato, so it is highly unlikely that anyone is going to send troops into Ukraine to challenge Russia»

* * * * * * *

«Britain and its allies are “highly unlikely” to send troops to defend Ukraine if Russia invades the country, the UK’s defence secretary has said»

«Russia has moved thousands of troops near Ukraine’s eastern borders»

«On Friday, Russia demanded strict limits on the activities of the US-led Nato military alliance in countries in Eastern Europe»

«Ukraine was not a member of Nato, so it is highly unlikely that anyone is going to send troops into Ukraine to challenge Russia»

«In proposals announced on Friday, Russia set out a series of radical demands – including requiring countries that joined Nato after the fall of the Soviet Union not to deploy troops or weapons in areas where they could be seen as a threat to Russia»

«Heavy bombers and warships would not be allowed in areas outside their national airspace or waters from which they could launch an attack»

«→→ That would mean Nato not playing any role at all in any of the three Baltic republics or Poland, as well as having to abandon any plans for Ukraine and Georgia to eventually join the Western alliance ←←»

* * * * * * *

I paesi della Nato, specie poi quelli della Europa dell’Est, stanno ospitando un sempre maggior numero di armi letali subito a ridosso del confine con la Russia.

Hanno anche spinto con forza l’ingresso della Ukraina nella Nato.

Queste però sono azioni che colpiscono interessi vitali russi, e che sarebbero valido motivo di guerra atomica.

Tuttavia, dopo aver lusingato e spinto l’Ukraina, Regno Unito ed Unione Europa annunciano che, nel caso, non la difenderebbero da una invasione armata russa.

Gran bei consiglieri fraudolenti!

* * * * * * *

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UK troops will not be deployed to Ukraine to defend against Russia

Britain and its allies are “highly unlikely” to send troops to defend Ukraine if Russia invades the country, the UK’s defence secretary has said.

“We shouldn’t kid people we would,” Ben Wallace told the Spectator magazine. “The Ukrainians are aware of that.”

Russia has moved thousands of troops near Ukraine’s eastern borders, leading Western powers to urge President Vladimir Putin to de-escalate tensions.

Moscow has denied plans to attack and has asked for urgent talks with the US.

On Friday, Russia demanded strict limits on the activities of the US-led Nato military alliance in countries in Eastern Europe.

The alliance was originally set up to defend Europe against possible threats from the former Soviet Union.

In an interview with the Spectator, Mr Wallace said Ukraine was “not a member of Nato, so it is highly unlikely that anyone is going to send troops into Ukraine to challenge Russia”.

“That is why we are doing the best diplomatically to say to Putin don’t do this,” he said, adding that “severe economic sanctions” were the most likely form of deterrent.

Mr Wallace has previously said that the UK stands “shoulder to shoulder with the people of Ukraine” and remains determined to support them.

Earlier this week, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned Mr Putin of “significant consequences” of any “destabilising action” in the region.

Ukraine shares borders with both the EU and Russia, but as a former Soviet republic it has deep social and cultural ties with Russia.

The Kremlin has accused Ukraine of provocation with its ambition to join Nato.

In proposals announced on Friday, Russia set out a series of radical demands – including requiring countries that joined Nato after the fall of the Soviet Union not to deploy troops or weapons in areas where they could be seen as a threat to Russia.

Heavy bombers and warships would not be allowed in areas outside their national airspace or waters from which they could launch an attack as part of the proposals.

That would mean Nato not playing any role at all in any of the three Baltic republics or Poland, as well as having to abandon any plans for Ukraine and Georgia to eventually join the Western alliance.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko said on Saturday that the proposals were an attempt to avoid a possible military conflict.

He said Moscow was ready to hold talks with the US in an effort “to turn a military or a military-technical scenario of confrontation into a political process which will really strengthen military security”, Russia’s Interfax news agency reported.

The US has said it is open to discussions, but that it would be putting its own concerns on the table too.

White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki also said on Friday that there would be “no talks on European security without our European allies and partners”.

Russia has long resisted Ukraine’s move towards European institutions.

It invaded Georgia during a brief war in 2008 and seized Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, before backing separatists in eastern Ukraine.

Conflict in the east began in April 2014 and has claimed more than 14,000 lives, with casualties still being reported.

Emirati Arabi. Ordinati 60 Rafale alla Francia.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-12-05.

«The United Arab Emirates ordered 80 Rafale fighter jets on Friday, the largest order ever for the warplane, a multi-billion dollar arms contract that deepens economic and political ties with France»

«French President Emmanuel Macron began a two-day trip to the Gulf on Friday, and will also visit Qatar and Saudi Arabia»

«His visit comes at a time when Gulf Arab states have voiced uncertainty about the United States’ focus on the region even as they seek more weapons from their key security ally»

«Paris has a permanent military base in the Emirati capital»

«In addition to the presence of three French military bases on UAE territory, this mutual trust translates into the acquisition of 80 Rafale planes, 12 Caracal helicopters, and associated elements»

«The deal, which could be worth at least $15 billion, is the biggest bulk purchase of the Dassault-made Rafale, other than by the French army, and comes after deals in Greece, Egypt and Croatia this year»

«Defence sources said the Rafale would replace the Mirage 2000 fleet and is unlikely to displace the American F-35 as the UAE continues to hedge its security with two major suppliers, France and the United States»

* * * * * * *

Questa è una commessa di elevato valore.

Gli United Arab Emirates percepiscono chiaramente che in caso di necessità i loro tradizionali alleati non muoverebbero un dito per difenderli. Nessuno più si fida dell’America e di Joe Biden.

* * * * * * *

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Cementing ties, UAE buys 80 French-made Rafale warplanes

DubaI (Reuters) -The United Arab Emirates ordered 80 Rafale fighter jets on Friday, the largest order ever for the warplane, a multi-billion dollar arms contract that deepens economic and political ties with France.

French President Emmanuel Macron began a two-day trip to the Gulf on Friday, and will also visit Qatar and Saudi Arabia. His visit comes at a time when Gulf Arab states have voiced uncertainty about the United States’ focus on the region even as they seek more weapons from their key security ally.

The French leader has forged a good relationship with Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan (MBZ) with investments flowing between both countries. Paris has a permanent military base in the Emirati capital.

“In addition to the presence of three French military bases on UAE territory, this mutual trust translates into the acquisition of 80 Rafale planes, 12 Caracal helicopters, and associated elements,” the French presidency said in a statement after a signing ceremony between MBZ and Macron on the sidelines of the Dubai Expo 2020.

Dassault shares rose 6% on the announcement.

The deal, which could be worth at least $15 billion, is the biggest bulk purchase of the Dassault-made Rafale, other than by the French army, and comes after deals in Greece, Egypt and Croatia this year.

The on-off negotiations for the Rafale fighter jets have been going on for more than a decade with Abu Dhabi publicly rebuffing France’s offer to supply 60 Rafale jets in 2011 as “uncompetitive and unworkable.” Abu Dhabi already has Mirage warplanes.

Defence sources said the Rafale would replace the Mirage 2000 fleet and is unlikely to displace the American F-35 as the UAE continues to hedge its security with two major suppliers, France and the United States.

Giappone. Aumenta di 6.75 miliardi Usd il budget della difesa.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-12-01.

«Producer prices in Japan rose by 8.0% yoy in October 2021, the most since January 1981, …. amid surging commodity prices. Cost surged further for petroleum & coal products (44.5% vs 32.4% in September), iron & steel (21.8% vs 18.1%), chemicals (14.1% vs 12.7%) and non-ferrous metals (31.4% vs 27.0%).» [Fonte]

* * * * * * *

«Japan plans to add $6.75 billion to its already record annual military spending in a rush to bolster air and maritime defenses as it becomes more concerned about threats posed by China and North Korea»

«Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s government on Friday approved the outlay as part of a supplementary budget»

«While such additions to defense spending are common, the 774 billion yen that lawmakers will be asked to approve is the largest amount ever»

«As the security environment around Japan worsens at unprecedented speed, our urgent task is to accelerate the implementation of various projects»

«The cash injection will let Japan, three months earlier than planned, upgrade surface-to-air missile launchers on islands at the edge of the East China Sea and Patriot PAC-3 missile batteries elsewhere that are the last line of defense against any incoming North Korean warheads»

«China’s increasing pressure on Taiwan is causing jitters in Japan because Beijing’s control of the island would bring Chinese forces within around 100 kilometers (62 miles) of its territory and would threaten key maritime trade routes that supply Japan with oil and other goods»

«The extra spending will also let Japan more quickly acquire anti-submarine missiles, maritime patrol planes and military cargo jets»

* * * * * * *

Il Giappone è carico di problemi, tra i quali spicca la stagflazione.

Giappone. Demografia. Tassodi fertilità sceso a 1.34. È crisi devastante.

Giappone. Un vecchio ogni 1.8 giovani. Cina e Russia si leccano i baffi.

Giappone. 2021Q1. Pil -3.9% QoQ, Consumi Privati -6.0%.

Giappone. 2021Q1. Investimenti in impianti e macchiari -7.8 sul 2020Q1.

Giappone – PIL (Prodotto Interno Lordo) (Annuale) -3.0%. [2021-11-14]

* * * * * * *

Il Giappone non nutre fiducia che gli Stati Uniti li difendano in caso di aggressione, e Cina e Korea del Nord sono vicini scomodi, armati fino ai denti.

La conseguenza è semplice, ossia riarmarsi. Ma senza disporre di armi atomiche il suo potere deterrente sarà pur sempre misero.

Infine, a crisi demografica nel medio – lungo termine lavora tutto a favore della Cina, che alla fine occuperà delle isole spopolate.

* * * * * * *

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Japan adds $6.75 billion to military budget in rush to bolster air and sea defenses

Tokyo (Reuters) Japan plans to add $6.75 billion to its already record annual military spending in a rush to bolster air and maritime defenses as it becomes more concerned about threats posed by China and North Korea.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s government on Friday approved the outlay as part of a supplementary budget. While such additions to defense spending are common, the 774 billion yen that lawmakers will be asked to approve is the largest amount ever, according to Japan’s Ministry of Defense.

“As the security environment around Japan worsens at unprecedented speed, our urgent task is to accelerate the implementation of various projects,” the Defense Ministry said in its spending proposal.

Japan’s Air Self-Defense Force’s F-15 fighter jets, one of the country’s key defenses, fly during a review after the graduation ceremony of the National Defense Academy on March 22, 2020.

The cash injection will let Japan, three months earlier than planned, upgrade surface-to-air missile launchers on islands at the edge of the East China Sea and Patriot PAC-3 missile batteries elsewhere that are the last line of defense against any incoming North Korean warheads.

China’s increasing pressure on Taiwan is causing jitters in Japan because Beijing’s control of the island would bring Chinese forces within around 100 kilometers (62 miles) of its territory and would threaten key maritime trade routes that supply Japan with oil and other goods. It would also provide China with bases for unfettered access to the western Pacific.

The extra spending will also let Japan more quickly acquire anti-submarine missiles, maritime patrol planes and military cargo jets, the Defense Ministry said.

The additional military outlay comes after Kishida’s ruling party in October included a goal of almost doubling defense spending to 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) in election pledges.

For decades the pacifist nation has stuck to a policy of keeping defense spending within 1% of GDP, easing concern both at home and overseas about any revival of the militarism that led Japan into World War II.

The additional spending plan approved by Kishida’s government on Friday also includes pre-payments to defense contractors for equipment to help them deal with coronavirus pandemic disruptions that have hurt their finances.

The proposed supplemental spending combined with defense outlays approved for the year to March 31 comes to about 1.3% of Japan’s GDP.

Superpotenze militari. Gli equilibri sono rotti. Una guerra è opzione appetibile.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2011-11-22.

La storia e la Realpolitik insegnano che gli equilibri delle forze militari siano una garanzia per il mantenimento della pace. Sotto questa condizione diventano possibili ed auspicabili trattati che prendano realisticamente atto della situazione, e che tutti i contraenti abbiano interesse a mantenere.

Ma le situazioni di equilibrio non sono eterne.

Per quanto riguarda quello tra le superpotenze atomiche, negli ultimi tempi si è dovuto prendere atto della crescente forza e presenza cinese, che fino a poco tempo fa aveva raggiunto un ragionevole potere deterrente.

Ma la vera mutazione, la rottura, degli equilibri non prende luogo fino a tanto che varino solo i rapporti numerici, ossia quelli quantitativi.

→→ Gli equilibri cessano invece di sussistere quando una delle parti acquisti

una consistente supremazia tecnologica, che renda obsoleto l’armamento dell’avversario. ←←

* * *

Negli ultimi mesi sono accaduti due importanti fatti nuovi.

                         Cina e missili ipersonici suborbitali.

Cina. Testato un missile atomico ipersonico suborbitale. Usa colti di sorpresa.

Biden dice di essere ‘preoccupato’ dei missili ipersonici cinesi e russi. La prossima guerra.

Missili a 6 volte la velocità del suono, testati in Cina nuovi velivoli ipersonici

Armamenti Nucleari. È in atto una corsa al riarmo per la prossima guerra.

Cina. Gli Usa sono indifesi rispetto ai missili ipersonici suborbitali. – Generale Milley.

«→→ Existing defenses of the continental United States all point west and north over the Pacific, meaning they might fail in defeating an attack from the south ←←»»

«→→ current antimissile technology is designed to intercept intercontinental ballistic warheads on predictable, parabolic paths in outer space — not hypersonic weapons that can zig and zag through the atmosphere ←←»

«→→ We just don’t know how we can defend against that technology ←←»»

* * *

Come ammette il generale Milley, gli Stati Uniti sono indifesi rispetto i missili ipersonici suborbitali.

                         Russia. Missile ipersonico militare anti-satellite.

La Russia ha recentemente testato con successo un nuovo missile ipersonico in grado di distruggere un satellite in orbita. Lo raggiunge in meno di dieci minuti primo dal lancio.

Negli anni passati molte nazioni, l’India per esempio, avevano dimostrato di essere in grado di distruggere dei propri satelliti in orbita. Ma il salto tecnologico fatto dai russi consiste nel fatto che questo sia un missile militare, producibile su vasta scala, ed anche difficilmente tracciabile da parte degli attuali sistemi radar occidentali. Questa arma si presta quindi più che bene ad un primo attacco offensivo, di portata devastante.

Sono due le categorie di satelliti di interesse militare.

La prima categoria comprende i satelliti GPS, Global Positioning System, che consentono agi utenti di avere il punto esatto in cui si trovano. Attualmente vi sono in orbita 37 satelliti GPS. Distruggendo questa tipologia di satelliti verrebbero a mancare non solo le possibilità nautiche delle navi e degli aeroplani, ma anche i punti di riferimento dei missili di crociera e di altri armamenti che li utilizzano per tenere una rotta.

La seconda categoria comprende i satelliti di telecomunicazioni. Distrutti questi l’America resterebbe come un sordomuto. In particolare, la rete radar sarebbe impossibilitata di comunicare al centro di coordinamento, che non sarebbe quindi avvisato dell’arrivo di missili balistici. Ne deriverebbe un chaos inimmaginabile fino all’avvenuto schianto delle testate atomiche.

* * * * * * *

Al momento il blocco sino-russo ha acquisto questa consistente superiorità tecnologica, fatto questo che suggerirebbe di utilizzarla fino a tanto che essa regga. Sarebbe sciocco perdere una occasione più unica che rara.

Sarebbe ingenuo pensare gli americani non cerchino di prendere adeguate contromisure.

* * * * * * *

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Russian anti-satellite missile test draws condemnation

«The US has condemned Russia for conducting a “dangerous and irresponsible” missile test that it says endangered the crew aboard the International Space Station (ISS).

The test blew up one of Russia’s own satellites, creating debris that forced the ISS crew to shelter in capsules.

The station currently has seven crew members on board – four Americans, a German and two Russians.

The space station orbits at an altitude of about 420km (260 miles).

“Earlier today, the Russian Federation recklessly conducted a destructive satellite test of a direct ascent anti-satellite missile against one of its own satellites,” US state department spokesman Ned Price said at a briefing.

“The test has so far generated over 1,500 pieces of trackable orbital debris and hundreds of thousands of pieces of smaller orbital debris that now threaten the interests of all nations.”»

* * *

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Russian anti-satellite test adds to worsening problem of space debris.

Russia has carried out a missile test, destroying one of its own satellites. The action has caused international outrage because the debris could threaten the International Space Station (ISS) and satellites in low-Earth orbit.

Russia’s test of an anti-satellite (A-Sat) missile system is not the first of its kind.

Back in 2007, China tested its own missile system against one of its own weather satellites in orbit. The explosion created more than 3,000 pieces of debris the size of a golf ball or larger – and more than 100,000 much smaller pieces.

Of the orbiting fragments considered a threat to the ISS, about a third are from this Chinese test. And at the speeds these objects travel in orbit, even small pieces can threaten spacecraft with destruction.

The A-Sat tests fit into the wider issue of space debris, which is being made worse by our continued activities in space.

There is now a wild jungle of debris overhead – everything from old rocket stages that continue to loop around the Earth decades after they were launched, to the flecks of paint that have lifted off once shiny space vehicles and floated off into the distance.

It is the legacy of 64 years of space activity.

It’s estimated there is close to 10,000 tonnes of hardware in orbit – much of it still active and useful, but far too much of it defunct and aimless.

Almost 30,000 pieces of debris are being tracked on a daily basis. These are just the big, easy-to-see items, however.

Go below the scale of 1cm (0.39in), and objects move around more or less untracked. There may be 300 million of these.

All of this stuff is travelling at several kilometres per second – sufficient velocity for them to become damaging projectiles if any were to strike an operational space mission.

The threat was starkly demonstrated in 2009 when an active communications satellite operated by the US company Iridium and a defunct Soviet-era military communications satellite were obliterated when they collided in orbit.

Now consider the threat to a space vehicle with humans aboard.

On Monday, Russia carried out the A-Sat test from Plesetsk Cosmodrome, about 800km (500 miles) north of Moscow. The missile destroyed an old Soviet spy satellite, called Kosmos 1408, that was once part of Russia’s Tselina radio signal surveillance programme.

US state department spokesman Ned Price said the destruction of Kosmos 1408 had generated about 1,500 pieces of larger orbiting objects, for which tracking information is available to civilian sources. But it also created hundreds of thousands of smaller fragments.

Some of these tinier objects likely can be tracked, because the US military doesn’t want to give away information about the sensitivities of its hardware. But others are probably too small to detect from the ground.

The debris field from the A-Sat test is found at an altitude of between 440km and 520km above Earth, threatening the ISS, China’s Tiangong space station and other spacecraft.

When the ISS passed close to the debris cloud on Monday, crew members were told to shelter in the Soyuz and Crew Dragon spacecraft attached to the orbiting outpost. This is so that the crew could detach and come back to Earth if the space station was damaged by fragments of the satellite.

While vehicles such as the space shuttle were hit by smaller pieces of debris, it’s likely that a collision with any large objects at orbital speeds would be catastrophic to the ISS.

The action by Russia has been condemned by other countries, including the US and the UK.

The Russian military said it was carrying out planned activities to strengthen its defence capabilities, but denied the test was dangerous.

“The United States knows for certain that the resulting fragments, in terms of test time and orbital parameters, did not and will not pose a threat to orbital stations, spacecraft and space activities,” it said.

Many countries now have their own A-Sat systems; the US and Russia (and previously the USSR) have been developing weapons of this kind since the 1950s. In 1985, the US used a missile launched from an F-15 fighter jet to destroy the Solwind scientific satellite.

After the Chinese A-Sat incident in 2007, the US military again shot down one of its own satellites – at a lower altitude than the Chinese or Russian operations – using a ship-launched missile. The lower height above the Earth was intended to ensure that any debris would quickly burn up in the atmosphere rather than staying aloft to threaten space-based assets.

Then in 2019, India tested its own weapon, during an operation codenamed Mission Shakti. The missile struck a test satellite in a lower orbit than those targeted by Moscow or Beijing, generating more than 200 pieces of trackable debris.

Since modern militaries rely on satellites for intelligence gathering, navigation and communications, A-Sat systems could be used to undermine an adversary’s command and control system during conflict.

Environmental impact

Gravity ensures that everything that goes up will eventually come back down – but the bath is currently being filled faster than the plug hole and the overflow pipe can empty it.

Some material from the A-Sat tests will come down to Earth, out of harm’s way, but a significant proportion will head off to high altitudes where they will remain a hazard for years to come.

Humans and nature are also conspiring in unexpected ways to make the situation worse. The extra CO2 pumped into the atmosphere down the years has cooled some of its highest reaches – the thermosphere.

This – combined with low levels of solar activity – have shrunk the atmosphere, limiting the amount of drag on orbital objects that ordinarily helps to pull debris from the sky. In other words, the junk is also staying up longer.

Leaving aside the growth in debris from collisions for a moment, the number of satellites being sent into space is also increasing rapidly.

Go back to the 2000s, and the average for the number of satellites launched each year would be about 100. In this decade, the proliferation of small satellite technologies will likely see the annual average rise above 1,000.

Norvegia. Boeing consegna il primo P-8A Poseidon, maritime patrol aircraft.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-11-21.

P-8: An Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance Solution. [Boeing]

«The Boeing P-8 is truly a multi-mission maritime patrol aircraft, excelling at anti-submarine warfare; anti-surface warfare; intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance and search and rescue. The P-8 can fly higher (up to 41,000 ft) and get to the fight faster (490 knots). Shorter transit times reduce the size of the Area of Probability when searching for submarines, surface vessels or search and rescue survivors. P-8 is also designed for low altitude missions and has already proven its abilities supporting humanitarian and search and rescue missions. A proven system with more than 100 aircraft in service and over 300,000 flight hours. The P-8’s performance and reliability delivers confidence in an uncertain world — in any condition, anywhere, anytime.

The P-8 has two variants: The P-8I, flown by the Indian Navy, and the P-8A Poseidon, flown by the U.S. Navy, the Royal Australian Air Force and the United Kingdom’s Royal Air Force.

The P-8 combines the most advanced weapon system in the world with the cost advantages of the most popular airliner on the planet. The P-8 shares 86% commonality with the commercial 737NG, providing enormous supply chain economies of scale in production and support. Boeing’s expertise in commercial fleet management and derivative aircraft sustainment provides customers with greater availability at a lower operational cost. The P-8 is engineered for 25 years/25,000 hours in the harshest maritime flight regimes, including extended operations in icing environments.»

* * *

First Boeing P-8A Poseidon for United Kingdom takes flight

Boeing Awarded Contract for Five P-8A Aircraft for Germany

* * * * * * *

«Boeing announced on Thursday that the Norwegian Defence Materiel Agency (NDMA) accepted the first of five Boeing P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft that will be operated by the Royal Norwegian Air Force (RNoAF)»

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Boeing delivers first P-8A Poseidon to Norway.

The milestone comes four years after the NDMA entered into an agreement with the U.S. Navy for the P-8A, and two years before the new aircraft are scheduled to begin taking over maritime patrol duties in Norway’s high north, the announcement said.

San Francisco, Nov. 18 (Xinhua) — Boeing announced on Thursday that the Norwegian Defence Materiel Agency (NDMA) accepted the first of five Boeing P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft that will be operated by the Royal Norwegian Air Force (RNoAF).

Norway’s first P-8A aircraft, named Vingtor, was delivered to the NDMA during a ceremony at the Museum of Flight in Seattle, U.S. state of Washington.

The milestone comes four years after the NDMA entered into an agreement with the U.S. Navy for the P-8A, and two years before the new aircraft are scheduled to begin taking over maritime patrol duties in Norway’s high north, the announcement said.

Norway’s four remaining aircraft are all in advanced stages of production and will be delivered to the NDMA in 2022. The five P-8As will replace the RNoAF current fleet of six P-3 Orions and two DA-20 Jet Falcons, according to the announcement.

The delivery to Norway also marks the 142nd P-8 aircraft delivered to global customers.

Nato. Jens Stoltenberg lancia l’allarme sulle concentrazioni militari della Russia.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-11-19.

«The head of the NATO military alliance urged Russia to prevent any escalation in the wake of its build-up of forces near the border with Ukraine»

«What we see is a significant, large Russian military build-up, we see an unusual concentration of troops and we know Russia has been willing to use these types of military capabilities before to conduct aggressive actions against Ukraine»

«We call on Russia to be transparent on their military activities, to reduce tensions and to prevent any escalation»

«The build-up of tanks and troops near the border with Ukraine has western capitals worried that Russian President Vladimir Putin could be planning a repeat of the 2014 invasion»

«any further western steps to provide weapons or expand military facilities in Ukraine would cross Russia’s red line»

«The fact that we see this military build-up also reduces any warning time between a decision in Russia before they’re able to conduct a military aggressive action against Ukraine»

«What we see now is a deteriorating situation where Russia is demonstrating that it can quickly activate the already amassed troops and equipment and that every option including a military one is on the table»

* * * * * * *

La ambigua politica estera di Joe Biden e dei liberal europei ha rinfocolato un clima da guerra fredda.

Se la red line posta dai russi è esplicita e chiara, quella occidentale è sfumata ed ondivaga. In effetti, non sanno decidersi su quale posizione tenersi.

Ma la incertezza genera incomprensioni, e queste la possibilità di un conflitto armato, magari preterintenzionale.

Una cosa sembrerebbe essere certa.

I russi non permetteranno mai che la Nato militarizzi l’Ukraina.

* * * * * * *

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NATO Chief Raises Alarm on Russia Military Build-Up Near Ukraine

(Bloomberg) — The head of the NATO military alliance urged Russia to prevent any escalation in the wake of its build-up of forces near the border with Ukraine.

“What we see is a significant, large Russian military build-up, we see an unusual concentration of troops and we know Russia has been willing to use these types of military capabilities before to conduct aggressive actions against Ukraine,” Jens Stoltenberg, secretary general of the 30-nation North Atlantic Treaty Organization, told reporters on Monday.

“We call on Russia to be transparent on their military activities, to reduce tensions and to prevent any escalation,” Stoltenberg said after talks with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in Brussels. “This is a clear message from all NATO allies.” 

The build-up of tanks and troops near the border with Ukraine has western capitals worried that Russian President Vladimir Putin could be planning a repeat of the 2014 invasion. In Moscow, senior officials and others close to the leadership say the Kremlin aims to make clear that any further western steps to provide weapons or expand military facilities in Ukraine would cross Russia’s red line. 

Stoltenberg declined to elaborate on the size or composition of the Russian deployment. “The fact that we see this military build-up also reduces any warning time between a decision in Russia before they’re able to conduct a military aggressive action against Ukraine,” Stoltenberg said.

“What we currently see along the border is not a purely military build-up because Russia has already brought a military armada to our borders in spring and has never really withdrawn since,” Kuleba said. “What we see now is a deteriorating situation where Russia is demonstrating that it can quickly activate the already amassed troops and equipment and that every option including a military one is on the table.”