Russia. Sempre più probabile una escalation severa. Centrali elettriche ukraine kaputt.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-09-21.

Credersi che i russi, che sono slavi, ragionino e si comportino secondo i canoni occidentali sarebbe un grande errore.

I mongoli diventano temibili quando si ritiravano.

È tutto da vedere se gli ukraini siano avanzati oppure i russi si siano ritirati per intrappolarli. Infatti gli ukraini si sono trascinati tutti gli armamenti sofisticati loro dati dall’occidente, ma questi senza corrente elettrica diventano inservibili.

Russia. Blackout completo nella Ukraina dell’est, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia e Odesa.

I media occidentali non ne parlano. Ma il blackout esiste.

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«Living with no electricity might not be as easy as you may think and you not realise how many items in your home rely on it to function. Electrically managed technologies supply us with many things, such as heat, food, water, transport, energy, entertainment and communication. Electricity allows us to power the technology we use every day. If you plan on trying to live without electricity, you will no longer be able to turn on the central heating in your home, use the toilet, preserve food in your fridge/freezer or have clean running water.» [EC4U]

«Russia has already launched intense shelling on the Kharkiv region, starting Sunday night, leaving it without electricity and water.»

«The centre of Ukraine’s second city Kharkiv was plunged into darkness on Sunday evening by an electricity blackout, a Reuters reporter said. The cause and extent of the blackout in the northeastern city were not immediately clear. There were also unconfirmed social media reports of blackouts in other places and regions.»  [Reuters]

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La Russia ha mantenuto un riserbo sulle sue ultime sconfitte in Ucraina e gli strateghi temono che Mosca possa cercare di punire severamente Kiev per le sue vittorie sul campo di battaglia nel tentativo di salvare la faccia. Ora si pensa a una potenziale rappresaglia russa: il ministro della Difesa ucraino Oleksii Reznikov ha dichiarato al Financial Times di aspettarsi un contrattacco. Una controffensiva libera un territorio e poi bisogna controllarlo ed essere pronti a difenderlo, ha detto Reznikov, aggiungendo: Certo, dobbiamo essere preoccupati, questa guerra ci preoccupa da anni. La Russia ha già lanciato intensi bombardamenti sulla regione di Kharkiv, a partire da domenica notte, lasciandola senza elettricità e acqua.

Inoltre, aumenta la volontà russa di infliggere agli ucraini una punizione simile a quella di Grozny, sia in termini di infliggere vittime di massa all’Ucraina attraverso un maggior numero di bersagli nei centri urbani, sia, nel peggiore dei casi, utilizzando armi chimiche o addirittura nucleari tattiche sul campo di battaglia per seminare il panico di massa. Di conseguenza, Putin si trova ad affrontare una crescente pressione per rispondere a dinamiche sempre più sfavorevoli sul fronte, che potrebbero includere mosse di escalation o richieste di avviare trattative per il cessate il fuoco.

Oppure un’escalation con mobilitazione di massa e armi di distruzione di massa (WMD), o forse il livellamento indiscriminato delle città ucraine in stile siriano.

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«Russia has been tight-lipped about its latest defeats in Ukraine, and strategists fear Moscow could look to punish Kyiv severely for its victories on the battlefield in an effort to save face. Now thoughts are turning to potential Russian retaliation, with Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov telling the Financial Times he was expecting a counterattack. “A counteroffensive liberates territory and after that you have to control it and be ready to defend it, Reznikov said, adding, Of course, we have to be worried, this war has worried us for years. Russia has already launched intense shelling on the Kharkiv region, starting Sunday night, leaving it without electricity and water.»

«Further, it makes Russian willingness to mete out Grozny-like ‘punishment’ onto the Ukrainians higher, both in terms of inflicting mass casualties on Ukraine through greater targeting of urban centers, as well as, in the worst case, using chemical or even tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield to sow mass panic. As a result, Putin faces growing pressure to respond to increasingly unfavorable dynamics on the frontline, which might include either escalatory moves or calls to start ceasefire talks»

«Or escalate with mass mobilisation and WMD [weapon of mass destruction], or perhaps Syrian style indiscriminate levelling of Ukrainian cities»

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Russia’s defeats in Ukraine have strategists worried about Moscow’s next move

– Strategists fear Moscow could look to punish Kyiv severely for its victories on the battlefield in an effort to save face.

– Kyiv’s forces launched a massive counterattack in the northeast of the country, reclaiming thousands of kilometers of Russian-occupied land over the last few days.

– “Moscow faces a stark choice now I think: face humiliating defeat in Ukraine … and sue for peace,” strategist Timothy Ash said. “Or escalate with mass mobilisation and WMD [weapon of mass destruction].”

* * * * * * *

Russia has been tight-lipped about its latest defeats in Ukraine, and strategists fear Moscow could look to punish Kyiv severely for its victories on the battlefield in an effort to save face.

Kyiv’s forces launched a massive counterattack in the northeast of the country, reclaiming thousands of kilometers of Russian-occupied land over the last few days.

Now thoughts are turning to potential Russian retaliation, with Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov telling the Financial Times he was expecting a counterattack. “A counteroffensive liberates territory and after that you have to control it and be ready to defend it,” Reznikov said, adding, “Of course, we have to be worried, this war has worried us for years.”

Russia has already launched intense shelling on the Kharkiv region, starting Sunday night, leaving it without electricity and water. Ukraine’s deputy defense minister told Reuters it was too early to say Ukraine had full control of the area.

Close followers of the Kremlin say President Vladimir Putin is likely weighing his options now.

“The military story for the Kremlin is becoming worse,” Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group president, said in a note Monday. “To the extent that continues, it pressures Putin into calling for a mobilization — likely a partial one but still a politically and socially costly move for the Russian president at home, that will force him into declaring war with Ukraine, and tacitly admitting that Russia is facing military problems,” he said in emailed comments. Russia has insisted on calling its invasion of Ukraine a “special military operation,” not a war.

“Further, it makes Russian willingness to mete out Grozny-like ‘punishment’ onto the Ukrainians higher, both in terms of inflicting mass casualties on Ukraine through greater targeting of urban centers, as well as, in the worst case, using chemical or even tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield to sow mass panic,” Bremmer added.

“If there’s a likely near-term change in the russia war going forward, it’s escalatory and not a negotiated breakthrough.”

                         Frustration rising

Ukraine’s victories on the battlefield in recent days, and its ability to reclaim dozens of towns and villages in the Kharkiv region, puts Russia on the back foot. It is now scrambling to defend its territory in Donetsk and Luhansk, where two pro-Russian “republics” are located, in the Donbas in eastern Ukraine.

Russian forces are widely believed to have been taken by surprise by Ukraine’s counterattack in the northeast of the country and were heavily outnumbered. There were signs that Russian forces had beaten a hasty retreat, with stores of equipment and ammunition abandoned.

Ahead of these counterattacks in the northeast, Kyiv had heavily promoted a counteroffensive in the south of Ukraine — leading Russia to redeploy troops there.

On Monday, the Kremlin’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, said Russia’s aims in Ukraine remain the same — to “liberate” the Donbas — and insisted that fighting would continue.

There are rumblings of discontent in Russia, however, with even staunch supporters of the Kremlin questioning the war in public forums, including on state-run TV.

“We’ve been told that everything is going according to plan. Does anyone really believe that six months ago the plan was to be leaving [the city of] Balakliya, repelling a counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region and failing to take over Kharkiv?” usually pro-Putin political expert Viktor Olevich said on the state-run NTV channel, the Moscow Times reported.

Another public figure, former lawmaker Boris Nadezhdin, said that Russia would not win the war if it continued to fight as it was, and said that there needed to be “either mobilization and full-scale war, or we get out.”

Analysts at global risk consultancy Teneo noted in emailed comments Monday evening that military losses and the humiliation of Russian troops “pose risks to President Vladimir Putin’s regime, as domestic criticism of the conduct of the so-called special military operation is mounting from various sides.”

“As a result, Putin faces growing pressure to respond to increasingly unfavorable dynamics on the frontline, which might include either escalatory moves or calls to start ceasefire talks,” they added.

                         Putin’s ‘stark choice’

Putin’s regime now faces a difficult choice; the war is dragging on and its undersupplied forces are likely becoming demoralized as they come under pressure from Ukraine’s well-organized and well-armed army.

“Moscow faces a stark choice now I think: face humiliating defeat in Ukraine — which seems inevitable given the current troop force deployments, supply chains and momentum on Ukraine’s side — and sue for peace,” Timothy Ash, senior emerging markets sovereign strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, said in a note Monday.

“Or escalate with mass mobilisation and WMD [weapon of mass destruction], or perhaps Syrian style indiscriminate levelling of Ukrainian cities.”

Ash said Putin had likely balked at the mass mobilization option, which would put Russia on a war footing and see the conscription of many of its citizens. The “risk is that they come home in body bags and cause domestic social and political unrest in Russia,” he said, but added that Putin was also unlikely to resort to unconventional weapons — such as WMDs.

“Putin had the chance and failed to pull the trigger as he knows these are only really deterrents and once he does unleash them we are in a whole new ball game, risk of World War 3, and a chain of events which will be very difficult to manage but where he is clearly seen as the aggressor/mad guy and loses most of his friends internationally, including China, et al,” Ash added.

He said that, after what he expected would be intensive airstrikes in Ukraine, Putin might attempt to begin “serious” peace talks. “But he will have to hurry up as the ground in Ukraine, and possibly even Moscow, is shifting quickly under his feet,” Ash noted.

“At this stage a total collapse of Russian forces across Ukraine is entirely possible – including that held before Feb. 24, including Crimea, and even talk about potential splits in Moscow and risks to Putin’s stay in power. Watch this space.”

Russia. Il blackout sulla Ukraina orientale è solo l’inizio.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-09-18.

«Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to step up attacks on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure»

«Il presidente russo Vladimir Putin ha minacciato di intensificare gli attacchi alle infrastrutture civili dell’Ucraina»

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Russia. Blackout completo nella Ukraina dell’est, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia e Odesa.

Eastern Ukraine suffers blackout, Kyiv blames Russia

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Il presidente russo Vladimir Putin ha minacciato di intensificare gli attacchi alle infrastrutture civili dell’Ucraina.

Proprio di recente le forze armate russe hanno colpito alcuni obiettivi sensibili. Consideriamo questi attacchi come un avvertimento. Se la situazione si svilupperà ulteriormente in questa direzione, la nostra risposta sarà più seria. La Russia ha lanciato missili che hanno fatto sprofondare nell’oscurità vaste aree dell’Ucraina e ha attaccato elementi del sistema idrico di una città dietro le linee del fronte, causando gravi danni e inondazioni.

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«Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to step up attacks on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure»

«Just recently the Russian armed forces hit some sensitive targets. Let’s consider that warning strikes. If the situation develops further in this direction, our response will be more serious. Russia fired missiles that plunged large areas of Ukraine into darkness and attacked elements of the water system in a city behind the front lines, causing severe damage and flooding»

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Putin Threatens New Military Strikes on Ukraine Infrastructure.

Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to step up attacks on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure, vowing to continue his invasion after his forces suffered some of their worst reverses in the seven-month-old campaign.

In his first public comments on the issue since Ukraine said it retook as much as a tenth of the territory Russia had seized, Putin was dismissive of the counteroffensive. “We’ll see how it goes,” he said, noting that Russian forces are continuing to advance in other areas.

“Just recently the Russian armed forces hit some sensitive targets. Let’s consider that warning strikes,” Putin told Russian media reporters Friday in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, where he was attending a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a China-led bloc. “If the situation develops further in this direction, our response will be more serious.”

Putin said Russia’s military campaign was “proceeding at a slow pace, but consistently” and claimed Moscow was using “only part” of its army. “Bit by bit, the Russian army is taking control of more and more territory,” he said. 

Ukraine wrested control of a large swathe of the northeast of the country occupied by Russia in a lightning offensive this month that forced Russian troops to flee, abandoning their equipment. The sudden losses dealt a major blow to the Kremlin’s efforts to seize eastern Ukraine. In response, Russia fired missiles that plunged large areas of Ukraine into darkness and attacked elements of the water system in a city behind the front lines, causing severe damage and flooding.

The Russian leader, who accused Ukraine of targeting civilian infrastructure as well as assassinating pro-Moscow officials in Russian-controlled territories, said the Kremlin is “in no rush” to complete its invasion. Ukraine denies striking civilian facilities and killing collaborators.

Putin’s comments came just hours after he told Narendra Modi that Russia would “do everything to end this as soon as possible.” The Indian prime minister chided the Russian leader, saying, “today’s era is not one for war.” 

In his comments to reporters, Putin reiterated his claim that he’s ready to negotiate with Ukraine but blamed Kyiv for being unwilling to talk. Ukrainian officials have demanded a full Russian withdrawal as a condition for diplomacy.

Earlier Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said authorities had discovered hundreds of graves in territory retaken from Russian occupation and demanded that the Kremlin be held accountable for war crimes.

Russia. Blackout completo nella Ukraina dell’est, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia e Odesa.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-09-12.

Il Presidente Putin non ci mette molto a lasciare al buio e senza acqua anche tutta la Ukraina.

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L’Ucraina orientale subisce un blackout, Kiev incolpa la Russia. Volodymyr Zelenskyy accusa Mosca di aver deliberatamente colpito le infrastrutture civili un giorno dopo che le forze russe hanno subito perdite. La regione orientale dell’Ucraina ha subito un blackout totale un giorno dopo che un contrattacco delle truppe di Kyiv ha costretto l’esercito russo a ritirarsi, con il presidente ucraino Volodymyr Zelenskyy che accusa Mosca di aver deliberatamente preso di mira le infrastrutture civili della regione.

Un’ampia parte della regione dell’Ucraina orientale, in difficoltà, ha subito domenica blackout elettrici e tagli alle forniture d’acqua. Le interruzioni riguarderanno probabilmente circa nove milioni di persone nella regione, compreso il territorio controllato dalla Russia. In diversi insediamenti non c’è elettricità né acqua. I servizi di emergenza stanno lavorando per controllare gli incendi nei siti colpiti. Segnalazioni simili sono giunte in serata dalle regioni di Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia e Odesa.

Ci sono interruzioni di corrente in cinque regioni del nord-est e dell’est del Paese. Quello che ci dicono i funzionari è che I russi hanno colpito le infrastrutture critiche. Eravamo per strada quando [l’interruzione di corrente] è avvenuta e mentre tornavamo alla nostra postazione, tutto era completamente buio; non c’era una sola luce accesa. È stata una scena piuttosto inquietante.

Gli attacchi russi hanno messo in crisi anche le ferrovie, con il servizio ferroviario nazionale che ha annunciato ritardi in tutto l’est, compresa la seconda città del Paese, Kharkiv.

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«Eastern Ukraine suffers blackout, Kyiv blames Russia. Volodymyr Zelenskyy accuses Moscow of deliberately hitting civilian infrastructure a day after Russian forces suffered losses. Ukraine’s eastern region has suffered a ‘total blackout’ a day after a counter-attack by Kyiv’s troops forced the Russian army to retreat, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accusing Moscow of deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure in the region.»

«A large part of the embattled eastern Ukraine region suffered power blackouts and cuts in water supplies on Sunday. The outages will likely affect about nine million people in the region, including territory controlled by Russia. There is no electricity or water supply in several settlements. Emergency services are working to control fires at the sites that were hit. Similar reports came in the evening from the regions of Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia and Odesa»

«there are “power outages in five regions in the northeast and eastern part of the country. What we’re hearing from officials is that the Russians have hit critical infrastructure. We were on the streets when [the power outage] happened and as we were driving back to our location, everything was completely dark; there was not one light on. It was quite an eery scene»

«The Russian attacks were also disrupting railways, with the national train service announcing delays throughout the east including the country’s second-largest city, Kharkiv»

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Eastern Ukraine suffers blackout, Kyiv blames Russia

Volodymyr Zelenskyy accuses Moscow of deliberately hitting civilian infrastructure a day after Russian forces suffered losses.

Ukraine’s eastern region has suffered a ‘total blackout’ a day after a counter-attack by Kyiv’s troops forced the Russian army to retreat, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accusing Moscow of deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure in the region.

A large part of the embattled eastern Ukraine region suffered power blackouts and cuts in water supplies on Sunday. The outages will likely affect about nine million people in the region, including territory controlled by Russia.

“There is no electricity or water supply in several settlements. Emergency services are working to control fires at the sites that were hit,” Oleg Synegubov, the governor of the Kharkiv region, said in a statement on social media.

Similar reports came in the evening from the regions of Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia and Odesa.

The Ukrainian president pointed the finger of blame at Russia, accusing Moscow of deliberately hitting civilian infrastructure.

“A total blackout in the Kharkiv and Donetsk regions, a partial one in the Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy regions,” Zelenskyy said in a statement on social media, blaming “Russian terrorists”.

“No military facilities,” he added. “The goal is to deprive people of light and heat.”

                         ‘Completely dark’

Al Jazeera’s Hoda Abdel Hamid reporting from Kharkiv said there are “power outages in five regions in the northeast and eastern part of the country. What we’re hearing from officials is that the Russians have hit critical infrastructure; they’re not telling us what or where, but this city is in pitch-black.

“We were on the streets when [the power outage] happened and as we were driving back to our location, everything was completely dark; there was not one light on. It was quite an eery scene.”

Officials in the Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava regions said shortly after the electricity cut announcements that power had been restored.

The Russian attacks were also disrupting railways, with the national train service announcing delays throughout the east including the country’s second-largest city, Kharkiv.

Ukraine’s foreign ministry spokesman Oleg Nikolenko said the Russian attacks were an “act of desperation following Russia’s immense losses and retreat in eastern Ukraine.”

The head of the Dnipropetrovsk region Dmytro Reznichenko said: The Russians hit energy infrastructure. They cannot accept defeat on the battlefield,” he said in a statement online.

AFP journalists in the Donetsk regional city of Kramatorsk meanwhile confirmed the cuts were also impacting one of the largest cities in the east still under Ukrainian control.

                         ‘A strategic victory for Ukraine’

The blackout came as Ukrainian forces claimed to have recaptured dozens of towns and villages in eastern Ukraine forcing Russian troops to retreat on Saturday.

The Ukrainian president on Sunday hailed his troops for ‘liberating’ the key eastern city of Izyum in the Kharkiv region.

In an address to the nation marking 200 days since the beginning of Russia’s invasion, Zelenskyy thanked Ukrainian forces who “liberated hundreds of our cities and villages … and most recently Balaklia, Izyum and Kupiansk,” naming three important hubs recently captured by Kyiv’s troops.

The pullback marked the biggest battlefield success for Kyiv’s forces since they thwarted Russia’s attempt to seize the capital Kyiv at the start of the war.

The official reason given for the withdrawal was a strategic “regrouping” of the units.

In the worst defeat for Moscow’s forces since they were repelled from the outskirts of the capital Kyiv in March, thousands of Russian soldiers left behind ammunition and equipment as they fled the city of Izyum, which they had used as a logistics hub.

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, on Sunday, criticised the Russian army’s performance over the weekend.

Ukrainian forces are pushing north in the Kharkiv region and advancing to its south and east, Ukraine’s army chief said on Sunday.

Zelenskyy hailed the offensive as a potential breakthrough in the six-month-old war, and said the winter could see further territorial gains if Kyiv received more powerful weapons.

Observers have said that Ukraine’s strategic gains in the east have provided an “unwavering” international community with evidence of its forces’ capabilities.

“This is a strategic victory for Ukraine – of far greater significance than the defeat of the Russians in Kyiv in March,” Frank Ledwidge of the University of Portsmouth told Al Jazeera.

He said it was strategic because it demonstrates that the Ukrainians can impose losses on the Russians.

“But it’s also a demonstration of their skills and combined arms warfare, and bringing the gear and training they’ve had over the last few months all together to take back an area of land that’s far greater than the Russians have taken since April.”

“It’s very significant and it demonstrates the Ukrainians’ capability with deception,” he added. “It’s an intelligence coup and it’s a remarkable display of Russian ineptitude, particularly in the intelligence realm.”

Conflitto Nato – Russo. Verosimile attacco missilistico su Saky, Krimea.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-08-13.

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Nota.

«Crimea is internationally recognised as Ukrainian territory»

Questa affermazione è falsa: solo l’enclave liberal occidentale considera la Krimea essere parte della Ukraina. Tutto il restante mondo civile e libero la considera parte integrante della Russia.

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Una persona è stata uccisa dopo che alcune esplosioni hanno scosso una base militare in Crimea, ha dichiarato il capo dell’amministrazione regionale nominata dalla Russia. Sergei Aksyonov ha scritto sui social media che le esplosioni sono avvenute nella base militare di Saky, vicino a Novofedorivka, sulla costa occidentale della penisola. Il ministero della Difesa russo ha poi dichiarato che sono state fatte esplodere delle munizioni.  È stata istituita una zona di interdizione di 5 km intorno al luogo dell’esplosione.

Mosca ha rifiutato di speculare sull’origine dell’esplosione e Kiev non si è assunta la responsabilità. Il vice primo ministro ucraino, Iryna Vereshchuk, ha scritto su Telegram che le esplosioni di oggi a Novofedorivka sono un altro promemoria di chi appartiene alla Crimea. Perché è Ucraina.

L’attacco in Crimea segnerebbe una drammatica escalation.

Se dovesse emergere che l’Ucraina è responsabile di questo attacco, si tratterebbe di un’escalation significativa. Sarebbe il primo grande attacco a un obiettivo all’interno della Crimea vera e propria. La Crimea è internazionalmente riconosciuta come territorio ucraino, ma la Russia governa la penisola da otto anni e le strutture statali e militari russe sono ben radicate. Per il Cremlino, la Crimea ha uno status quasi sacro, visto come terra storicamente russa che Mosca ha riacquistato trionfalmente nel 2014.

E si teme che se gli ucraini iniziassero ad attaccare sistematicamente obiettivi russi in Crimea, la risposta russa potrebbe essere davvero molto seria. Il mese scorso, l’ex presidente russo Dmitry Medvedev, ora vicepresidente del potente Consiglio di Sicurezza, ha dichiarato che se la Crimea venisse attaccata, il giorno del giudizio attenderà immediatamente tutti coloro [che sono coinvolti]. Sarà molto veloce e molto duro.

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«One person has been killed after blasts rocked a military base in Crimea, the head of the Russia-appointed regional administration there said. Sergei Aksyonov wrote on social media that the blasts had taken place at the Saky military base near Novofedorivka on the peninsula’s western coast. Russia’s defence ministry later said ammunition was detonated.  5km (three-mile) no-go zone around the blast site had been established.»

«Moscow refused to speculate on the origin of the blast and Kyiv has not taken responsibility. Ukraine’s deputy Prime Minister, Iryna Vereshchuk, wrote on Telegram that “today’s explosions in Novofedorivka are another reminder of who Crimea belongs to. Because it is Ukraine”»

«Crimean attack would mark dramatic escalation»

«If it emerges Ukraine was responsible for this attack, that would be a significant escalation. It would be the first major attack on a target inside Crimea proper. Crimea is internationally recognised as Ukrainian territory, but Russia has ruled the peninsula for eight years and Russian state structures and military facilities are very well established. For the Kremlin, Crimea has a quasi-sacred status, seen as “historically” Russian land that Moscow “re-acquired” triumphantly in 2014»

«And there are fears that if the Ukrainians begin systematically attacking Russian targets inside Crimea, then the Russian response could be very serious indeed. Last month, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, now Deputy Chairman of the powerful Security Council, said that if Crimea were attacked, then “Judgement Day will instantly await all those [involved]. It will be very fast and very hard»

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Ukraine war: Blasts rock Russian airbase in annexed Crimea

One person has been killed after blasts rocked a military base in Crimea, the head of the Russia-appointed regional administration there said.

Sergei Aksyonov wrote on social media that the blasts had taken place at the Saky military base near Novofedorivka on the peninsula’s western coast.

Footage circulating on social media appeared to show multiple explosions.

Russia’s defence ministry later said ammunition was detonated, but this has not been independently verified.

The ministry said there was no “fire impact” on the ammunition storage area, Russia’s state-run Ria news agency reports.

The Ukrainian peninsula that Moscow annexed in 2014 is a popular destination with Russian tourists, and one video appeared to show visitors fleeing from a beach as smoke rose in the background.

Local witnesses told the Reuters agency that they heard at least 12 blasts, beginning at about 15:20 local time (12:20 GMT).

After arriving in the area, Mr Aksyonov said a 5km (three-mile) no-go zone around the blast site had been established.

Moscow refused to speculate on the origin of the blast and Kyiv has not taken responsibility.

Ukraine’s deputy Prime Minister, Iryna Vereshchuk, wrote on Telegram that “today’s explosions in Novofedorivka are another reminder of who Crimea belongs to. Because it is Ukraine”.

And Ukraine’s military posted a sarcastic statement on Facebook which hinted at the sinking of the Moskva warship and other military setbacks, reminding Russia of its “fire safety rules and the ban of smoking in unsettled places”.

Russia’s annexation of Crimea eight years ago drew widespread international condemnation.

On 24 February, Moscow launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, using Crimea as a springboard to move Russian troops deeper inside Ukraine.

Novofedorivka and Saky are about 50km (30 miles) north of the port of Sevastopol, home of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, which has been leading a blockade of the Ukrainian coastline.

* * *

Crimean attack would mark dramatic escalation

If it emerges Ukraine was responsible for this attack, that would be a significant escalation. It would be the first major attack on a target inside Crimea proper.

The Ukrainians have come close: in June 2022, the Russia-appointed “leader” of Crimea said that Ukrainian forces had fired on Black Sea oil drilling platforms in Crimean waters, resulting in several casualties. And at the end of July, Russian authorities said a drone had struck a Russian naval facility in the city of Sevastopol, injuring six.

Crimea is internationally recognised as Ukrainian territory, but Russia has ruled the peninsula for eight years and Russian state structures and military facilities are very well established.

For the Kremlin, Crimea has a quasi-sacred status, seen as “historically” Russian land that Moscow “re-acquired” triumphantly in 2014. An attack so deep inside Crimean territory would be a major embarrassment for President Putin.

And there are fears that if the Ukrainians begin systematically attacking Russian targets inside Crimea, then the Russian response could be very serious indeed. Last month, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, now Deputy Chairman of the powerful Security Council, said that if Crimea were attacked, then “Judgement Day will instantly await all those [involved]. It will be very fast and very hard.”

Cina. Ha lanciato un satellite che gestisce una rete globale di comunicazioni quantistiche.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-08-12.

«QUESS has enormous prospects in the defence sphere»

«The mission cost was around US$100 million in total»

Sicuramente la entità degli investimenti produce arricchimento scientifico, ma nulla vicaria la potenza della intelligenza umana lasciata libera di pensare.

La intelligenza è il vero patrimonio di un popolo. Intelligenti si nasce, non lo si diventa.

Ma la collettività riesce ad identificare e a far crescere la intelligenza solo ed esclusivamente se è anche essa intrinsecamente libera e sostanzialmente meritocratica, come lo è la Cina.

* * * * * * *

La distribuzione a chiave quantistica (in sigla QKD, dall’inglese: Quantum key distribution) è un sistema della meccanica quantistica per garantire comunicazioni sicure. Abilita due parti a produrre e condividere una chiave segreta casuale solamente tra di loro che potranno usare per cifrare e decifrare i loro messaggi. Spesso, è chiamata impropriamente crittografia quantistica, poiché è l’esempio meglio conosciuto tra le operazioni di crittografia quantistica. Un’importante e unica proprietà della distribuzione quantistica è la capacità dei due utenti in comunicazione di rilevare la presenza di una terza parte che tenta di ottenere informazioni sulla chiave, dovuto al fatto che un processo di misura in un sistema quantistico in generale disturba il sistema.

La sicurezza della distribuzione a chiave quantistica si affida sui fondamenti della meccanica quantistica rispetto al tradizionale protocollo di distribuzione a chiave che si affida sulla difficoltà computazionale di certe funzioni matematiche, e non può fornire alcuna indicazioni al riguardo di possibili intercettazioni. La distribuzione a chiave quantistica è usata solo per produrre e distribuire la chiave, non per trasmettere qualsivoglia messaggio. La chiave può essere usata con qualsiasi algoritmo di cifrazione e decifrazione, che trasmetterà poi il messaggio su un canale di comunicazione standard. L’algoritmo più comunemente associato a questa chiave è il cifrario di Vernam. I sistemi commerciali esistenti ad oggi di distribuzione a chiave quantistica sono specificatamente pensati per governi e imprese con alti requisiti di sicurezza.

* * * * * * *

«Quantum Experiments at Space Scale, QUESS, is a Chinese research project in the field of quantum physics. Tiangong-2 is China’s second Space Laboratory module which was launched on 15 Sep 2016. Tiangong-2 carries a total of 14 mission  and experiment packages, including Space-Earth quantum key distribution and laser communications experiment to facilitate space-to-ground quantum communication. A satellite, nicknamed Micius or Mozi after the ancient Chinese philosopher, is operated by the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

QUESS is a proof-of-concept mission designed to facilitate quantum optics experiments over long distances to allow the development of quantum encryption and quantum teleportation technology. Quantum encryption uses the principle of entanglement to facilitate communication that can absolutely detect whether a third party has intercepted a message in transit thus denying undetected decryption. By producing pairs of entangled photons, QUESS will allow ground stations separated by many thousands of kilometres to establish secure quantum channels. QUESS itself has limited communication capabilities: it needs line-of-sight, and can only operate when not in sunlight. The mission cost was around US$100 million in total. QUESS has enormous prospects in the defence sphere. The satellite will provide secure communications between Beijing. China is aiming to achieve the capability to counter the use of enemy space technology. The launch put China ahead of rivals, and brought them closer to hack-proof communications.» [Fonte]

* * * * * * *

La Cina ha lanciato mercoledì un nuovo satellite quantistico che potrebbe essere il primo passo verso la creazione di una rete di comunicazione ultra-sicura con copertura globale. Si tratta di uno dei sei satelliti lanciati intorno a mezzogiorno dal razzo a risposta rapida Lijian dal centro di lancio satellitare di Jiuquan, nel deserto del Gobi. È uno dei sei satelliti lanciati intorno a mezzogiorno dal razzo a risposta rapida Lijian dal centro di lancio satellitare Jiuquan nel deserto del Gobi. Una rete di chiavi quantistiche utilizza particelle entangled per criptare un messaggio. Qualsiasi tentativo di furto o decodifica altera fisicamente il messaggio e allerta il destinatario, grazie alla legge della fisica quantistica. Chiamato Jinan 1, pesa meno di 100 kg.

Jinan 1 entrerà in servizio dopo un mese di test ed è solo il primo passo. Altri satelliti di questo tipo saranno lanciati nel prossimo futuro per supportare la comunicazione quantistica per oltre 100 utenti in tutto il mondo. t è anche un passo importante. La Cina è il primo Paese al mondo a realizzare la distribuzione di chiavi quantistiche in tempo reale, da satellite a terra, con un micro-satellite e stazioni terrestri miniaturizzate.

Mentre i satelliti di comunicazione tradizionali servono principalmente come relè, il compito più importante di un satellite quantistico è quello di generare particelle entangled da utilizzare come chiavi quantistiche. Queste chiavi quantistiche potrebbero diventare una risorsa preziosa per la comunicazione globale.

Nel maggio 2020 è iniziato un esperimento da record, condotto da un’altitudine di 36.000 km, ovvero 60 volte più in alto dell’orbita di Mozi, ha scritto Sun in un articolo pubblicato sul Chinese Journal of Astronautics nel luglio dello scorso anno. L’esperimento è stato apparentemente interrotto dopo che il satellite è stato avvicinato da un satellite di sorveglianza spaziale statunitense.

* * * * * * *

«China launched a new quantum satellite on Wednesday that could be a first step towards establishing an ultra-secure communications network with global coverage. It was one of six satellites launched around noon by the Lijian quick response rocket from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Centre in the Gobi Desert. It was one of six satellites launched around noon by the Lijian quick response rocket from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Centre in the Gobi Desert. A quantum key network uses entangled particles to encrypt a message. Any attempt to steal or decode will alter the message physically and alert the receiver, thanks to the law of quantum physics. Called Jinan 1, it weighs less than 100kg.»

«Jinan 1 would enter service after a month of testing and it was “just the first step”. More such satellites would be launched in the near future to support quantum communication for more than 100 users around the globe. t is also an important step. It makes China the first country in the world to achieve real-time, satellite-to-ground quantum key distribution with micro-nano satellite and miniaturised ground stations»

«While traditional communication satellites mainly serve as a relay, the most important job of a quantum satellite is to generate entangled particles to be used as quantum keys. Those quantum keys could become a valuable resource for global communication»

«A record-breaking experiment began in May 2020, conducted from an altitude of 36,000km – or 60 times higher than Mozi’s orbit, Sun wrote in a paper in the Chinese Journal of Astronautics in July last year. The experiment was apparently paused after the satellite was approached by a US space surveillance satellite»

* * * * * * *

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China launches new satellite in ‘important step’ towards global quantum communications network

– Jinan 1 will conduct key distribution experiments in lower-Earth orbit after a month of testing

– More launches planned for near future to support quantum communication for over 100 users

* * * * * * *

China launched a new quantum satellite on Wednesday that could be a first step towards establishing an ultra-secure communications network with global coverage.

It was one of six satellites launched around noon by the Lijian quick response rocket from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Centre in the Gobi Desert, according to Xinhua.

The quantum satellite, developed by the Chinese Academy of Sciences, would conduct quantum key distribution experiments in lower-Earth orbit, the report said.

A quantum key network uses entangled particles to encrypt a message. Any attempt to steal or decode will alter the message physically and alert the receiver, thanks to the law of quantum physics.

It is the second quantum satellite launched by China after it sent the world’s first such satellite, Mozi, into orbit in August 2016.

Called Jinan 1, it weighs less than 100kg – about a sixth of the weight of Mozi – but can generate quantum keys at speeds two or three magnitude higher, the project team said in a statement posted on WeChat.

It said Jinan 1 would enter service after a month of testing and it was “just the first step”. More such satellites would be launched in the near future to support quantum communication for more than 100 users around the globe.

“It is also an important step. It makes China the first country in the world to achieve real-time, satellite-to-ground quantum key distribution with micro-nano satellite and miniaturised ground stations,” the statement said.

China’s first quantum satellite, Mozi, is equipped with what was the most sensitive device when it went into orbit six years ago – it can produce and detect a single photon, or an extremely weak particle of light. The satellite has conducted record-breaking experiments in quantum physics, including proving the feasibility of quantum communication from one continent to another.

But researchers involved in the project say Mozi has its limits. The first generation of space-based quantum communication devices, for instance, can only establish a stable link with the ground at night because the sun produces so much noise that the light signals are drowned out. Also, the bandwidth for quantum key distribution – which is as small as dial-up – restricts communication to voice or low-resolution videos.

In recent years, the team – led by Pan Jianwei, a professor and executive vice-president of the University of Science and Technology of China in Hefei – has been working to find solutions to these problems. That includes developing new technologies to maintain quantum communication during the daytime and in bad weather, according to research papers published by the team.

Zhao Yongli, a professor at the Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications who is not part of the Mozi team, wrote in a 2020 research paper that technological developments had prompted China to build a quantum satellite constellation to take high-speed, stable quantum communication around the globe

While traditional communication satellites mainly serve as a relay, the most important job of a quantum satellite is to generate entangled particles to be used as quantum keys. Those quantum keys could become a valuable resource for global communication in the future, according to Zhao, who works in the State Key Laboratory of Information Photonics and Optical Communications at the university.

He said the more quantum satellites in orbit, the more keys could be generated and sent to a “pool” for users with high security demands.

“The idea is to continuously generate quantum keys between each pair of connected nodes, and then store the keys in a quantum key pool” managed by a central agency in China, Zhao said in the paper published in Chinese peer-reviewed journal Radio Communications Technology.

“Low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites have the advantages of small channel loss and low transmission delay. It is a more feasible way to use the networking of LEO satellites to build a quantum satellite constellation,” he said.

Zhao said China also planned to have quantum satellites in high-Earth orbit (GEO or geosynchronous orbit) where they could remain relatively stationary with the ground. He estimated that three such satellites could cover the entire planet.

There would be significant transmission loss, but Zhao said GEO satellites could “generate keys continuously at a lower rate” and send them to the pool.

He said the Mozi team had been working on technologies to improve the efficiency of satellite links – including developing larger receiving mirrors and more accurate targeting systems – aiming to increase the rate of key generation.

China has also been testing cutting-edge quantum telecoms technology on Shijian 20, its most advanced communication satellite, according to Sun Xiaojie, a senior engineer with the Quantum Engineering Research Centre at the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation in Beijing.

A record-breaking experiment began in May 2020, conducted from an altitude of 36,000km – or 60 times higher than Mozi’s orbit, Sun wrote in a paper in the Chinese Journal of Astronautics in July last year.

The experiment was apparently paused after the satellite was approached by a US space surveillance satellite, USA 271, in August 2020 and it moved away at speed, according to a report by US military website Breaking Defence.

Sun said in the paper that the experiment resumed in November but did not mention the encounter with the US satellite. She said the research suggested that the error rate of light signals from a geostationary satellite was between 2 and 8 per cent, which was “good enough for quantum key distribution”.

Cina e Formosa. Xi ed il trionfo della scuola mandarinica. L’occidente è stato sgominato.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-08-11.

«The exercise demonstrated that blockade in a conflict need not require a constant naval presence offshore»

«L’esercitazione ha dimostrato che il blocco in un conflitto non richiede necessariamente una presenza navale costante al largo»

Cina e Formosa. Report numerico che ne quantizza i rapporti

Gli occidentali non si sono mai peritati di studiare a fondo la storia e la cultura cinese né, tanto meno, la storia e la Weltanschauung della scuola mandarinica. Per non parlare poi di conoscere la lingua cinese. Sono convinti di essere una razza superiore, come quella che i russi fecero sfilare per le strade di Mosca. Sono convinti che tutto il mondo debba parlare inglese e condividere gioiosamente la loro ideologia.

La vittoria arride invece alla Cina ed a Mr Xi, potentemente aiutati dalla ottusa superbia occidentale.

* * * * * * *

Le esercitazioni militari cinesi dimostrano che Pechino non ha bisogno di invadere Taiwan per controllarla, ma può strangolare l’isola autogovernata, tagliandola fuori dal mondo esterno. Le esercitazioni dell’Esercito Popolare di Liberazione (PLA), iniziate ufficialmente giovedì scorso, si sono concentrate su sei zone che hanno essenzialmente circondato Taiwan, limitando l’accesso alle navi e agli aerei civili nell’area, mentre le forze armate hanno condotto esercitazioni a fuoco vivo e lanci di missili. Le sei aree sono state scelte per mostrare come la Cina potrebbe tagliare i porti di Taiwan, attaccare le sue installazioni militari più importanti e tagliare l’accesso alle forze straniere che potrebbero venire in aiuto di Taiwan.

Collegare le sei aree in una linea, come un cappio, con il nodo del cappio proprio in direzione sud-ovest. Il Partito Comunista Cinese considera la democratica Taiwan come un suo territorio, nonostante non l’abbia mai controllata. L’unione di Taiwan con la terraferma è una pietra miliare della politica cinese e il presidente Xi Jinping non ha escluso l’uso della forza per riportare l’isola sotto il controllo di Pechino.

Le aree di esercitazione settentrionali sono riuscite a isolare Taiwan da Okinawa, l’isola dove sia il Giappone che gli Stati Uniti basano ingenti risorse militari. Nelle aree meridionali, il PLA ha dimostrato di poter controllare il Canale di Bashi, unica via di accesso e di uscita dal Mar Cinese Meridionale, ha aggiunto. E nelle zone orientali, le forze cinesi hanno dimostrato che un accurato fuoco missilistico cinese può costringere le navi da guerra straniere ad allontanarsi dalle acque di Taiwan.

Nei giorni precedenti, il PLA ha anche sparato razzi verso piccole isole controllate da Taiwan vicino alla terraferma e ha lanciato missili balistici più lontano, alcuni dei quali hanno sorvolato Taiwan e sono caduti nell’oceano a est dell’isola. Cinque sono caduti nella zona economica esclusiva del Giappone, un messaggio a uno dei principali sostenitori di Taiwan e al governo di Taipei.

Le navi e gli aerei commerciali sono stati avvertiti di non avvicinarsi alle zone di esercitazione, costringendo i trasportatori e le compagnie aeree a organizzare rotte alternative. Il blocco di sei zone ha dimostrato che qualsiasi conquista di Taiwan potrebbe iniziare con una strategia di isolamento. L’esercitazione ha dimostrato che il blocco in un conflitto non richiede necessariamente una presenza navale costante al largo, ma piuttosto il traffico marittimo e aereo può essere scoraggiato da minacce aeree e missilistiche a sostegno di un blocco marittimo.

Le dimensioni, l’estensione geografica e la complessità dell’esercitazione riflettono mesi di pianificazione. Nulla permette di conoscere meglio le reali capacità di un esercito che vederle schierate.

* * * * * * *

«China’s military exercises show Beijing doesn’t need to invade Taiwan to control it — rather it can strangle the self-ruled island, cutting it off from the outside world. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) drills, which officially began last Thursday, focused on six zones that essentially encircled Taiwan, restricting access to civilian ships and aircraft in the area, as forces conducted live-fire drills and missile launches. The six areas were chosen to show how China could cut off Taiwan’s ports, attack its most important military installations, and sever access for foreign forces that may come to Taiwan’s aid.

«Connect the six areas in a line, like a noose, with the knot of the noose right in the southwest direction. China’s Communist Party views democratic Taiwan as its territory — despite never having controlled it. Uniting Taiwan with the mainland is a cornerstone of Chinese policy and President Xi Jinping has not ruled out the use of force to bring the island under Beijing’s control»

«The northern exercise areas had successfully sealed off Taiwan from Okinawa, the island where both Japan and the United States base substantial military assets. In the southern areas, the PLA showed it could control the Bashi Channel,  only way to enter and exit the South China Sea, he said. And in the eastern areas, China’s forces showed that accurate Chinese missile fire could force foreign warships to back away from Taiwan’s waters»

«On previous days, the PLA also fired rockets toward small, Taiwan-controlled islands near the mainland, and launched ballistic missiles farther afield, with some flying over Taiwan and falling in the ocean east of the island. Five splashed down in Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone — a message to one of Taiwan’s key supporters as well as the government in Taipei»

«Commercial ships and aircraft were warned to stay clear of the exercise zones, forcing shippers and airlines to arrange alternative routes. The blockade of six zones showed that any takeover of Taiwan could begin with an isolation strategy. The exercise demonstrated that blockade in a conflict need not require a constant naval presence offshore, but rather, shipping and air traffic can be deterred by air and missile threats in support of a maritime blockade»

«The size, geographic expanse and complexity of the exercise reflected months of planning. Nothing provides better insights into the actual capability of a military than seeing them deployed»

* * * * * * *

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China drills show Beijing is developing the ability to strangle Taiwan, experts say

Seoul, South Korea (CNN). China’s military exercises show Beijing doesn’t need to invade Taiwan to control it — rather it can strangle the self-ruled island, cutting it off from the outside world, Chinese and American analysts say.

The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) drills, which officially began last Thursday, focused on six zones that essentially encircled Taiwan, restricting access to civilian ships and aircraft in the area, as forces conducted live-fire drills and missile launches.

Meng Xiangqing, a professor at the PLA National Defense University, said the six areas were chosen to show how China could cut off Taiwan’s ports, attack its most important military installations, and sever access for foreign forces that may come to Taiwan’s aid.

“Connect the six areas in a line, like a noose, with the knot of the noose right in the southwest direction,” Meng said in an interview with state-run broadcaster CCTV.

China’s Communist Party views democratic Taiwan as its territory — despite never having controlled it. Uniting Taiwan with the mainland is a cornerstone of Chinese policy and President Xi Jinping has not ruled out the use of force to bring the island under Beijing’s control.

Meng noted the northern exercise areas had successfully sealed off Taiwan from Okinawa, the island where both Japan and the United States base substantial military assets. In the southern areas, the PLA showed it could control the Bashi Channel, “the only way to enter and exit the South China Sea,” he said. And in the eastern areas, China’s forces showed that accurate Chinese missile fire could force foreign warships to back away from Taiwan’s waters, he added.

“This is an unprecedented encirclement of Taiwan Island,” Meng said.

And on Monday, China issued a notice to say drills were continuing.

                         A trigger for long-planned exercises

The exercises kicked off after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi angered Beijing by visiting Taipei last week to show her support for democracy on the island.

Beijing flooded the seas and skies around Taiwan with ships and jets — as many as 80 Chinese warplanes and vessels were detected in the Taiwan Strait Sunday, according to Taiwan’s Defense Ministry.

On previous days, the PLA also fired rockets toward small, Taiwan-controlled islands near the mainland, and launched ballistic missiles farther afield, with some flying over Taiwan and falling in the ocean east of the island. Five splashed down in Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone — a message to one of Taiwan’s key supporters as well as the government in Taipei.

A map of the six Chinese exercise areas “clearly plots out where the Chinese think the key operating areas are for their strategic intimidation of Taiwan,” Mick Ryan, an adjunct fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and former Australian Army general, wrote on Twitter.

Commercial ships and aircraft were warned to stay clear of the exercise zones, forcing shippers and airlines to arrange alternative routes.

Carl Schuster, a former director of operations at the US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center in Hawaii said the blockade of six zones showed that any takeover of Taiwan could begin with an isolation strategy.

“The exercise demonstrated that blockade in a conflict need not require a constant naval presence offshore, but rather, shipping and air traffic can be deterred by air and missile threats in support of a maritime blockade,” Schuster said.

“The exercise … suggests Beijing would first isolate Taiwan and resort to air and missile strikes in hopes of breaking Taipei’s political will. A costly invasion probably is a last resort,” Schuster said.

                         What could come next

Schuster said much of what Beijing demonstrated had long been in the works. The drills coincided with standard military exercises on the PLA’s training calendar, but he said Pelosi’s visit allowed China to make a bigger statement.

“The size, geographic expanse and complexity of the exercise reflected months of planning,” he said. “This exercise marks the latest escalation in China’s expanding military exercise and Taiwan-intimidation campaign.”

He said he expects the PLA will continue to put pressure on Taiwan, and could also send a message to Japan with more drills to the north of the island.

New exercises are also likely in the South China Sea, the 1.3 million square miles of water, almost all of which China claims as its sovereign territory, where Beijing has built up military fortifications on contested islands, Schuster said.

While continuing exercises will allow the PLA to refine its tactics and operations, they also can provide an opportunity for adversaries to learn about the modern Chinese military, experts say.

“Nothing provides better insights into the actual capability of a military than seeing them deployed,” Ryan, the former Australian Army general, wrote on Twitter.

With last week’s drills, Xi had to demonstrate he would not waver on his commitment to bringing Taiwan under Beijing’s control, Schuster said. Pelosi’s visit to the island posed a direct threat to that by presenting an alternative vision of democracy.

“(Pelosi) leads the democratically elected branch that originates America’s government funding and economic policies. Her position and role makes her commitment to Taiwan’s security particularly significant,” Schuster said.

“Unable to bully her, Xi had to demonstrate China’s power — diplomatic, economic and military,” he said.

While the military exercises gave Xi strong visuals to support his resolve, China also hit Pelosi and the US government with a range of sanctions.

The measures include the cancellation of future phone calls and meetings between Chinese and US military leaders and the suspension of cooperation on matters including the repatriation of illegal immigrants, legal assistance on criminal matters and the combat of transnational crimes. Talks on climate change were also suspended.

Beijing also announced measures targeting Pelosi and members of her immediate family.

“The goal is intimidation via the application of all elements of Chinese power,” Schuster said.

Conflitto Nato Russo in Ukraina. Situazione sul campo. Mappe aggiornate al 2022-07-27.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-07-29.

Ecco le mappe della situazione militare in Ukraina.

Lituania. Dopo il discorso di Mr Lavrov rimuove in fretta e furia le sanzioni alla Russia.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-07-24.

Lo abbiamo sempre detto che con le buone maniere si ottiene tutto.

Mr Lavrov, la cui timida mitezza virginale è proverbiale, ha solo ricordato come la Russia abbia bombe atomiche a sufficienza anche per la Lituania.

«Lithuania has lifted a ban on the rail transport of sanctioned goods in and out of the Russian area of Kaliningrad»

Che figura di sterco!! Femminielli e femminielle debosciati dai vizi innominabili e dall’uso smodato delle droghe pesanti. Senza il minimo sentimento di umana dignità. Ma una cosa è marciare al gay pride, ed una ben diversa contro la Russia, che non inizia le guerre ma le termina. E non ci si faccia illusioni, ma proprio nessuna. La Russia si ricorderà quanto è successo, ed a tempo opportuno i lituani sfileranno per la Piazza Rossa per essere poi caricati sui treni merci destinati alla Siberia.

* * * * * * *

«Following the certification of the election results, Šimonytė was proposed as the prime ministerial candidate by a coalition consisting of the Homeland Union, Liberal Movement and Freedom Party; she took office on 11 December, along with the appointment of her cabinet ….

During the meeting with Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, Šimonytė emphasized that Lithuania seeks to further increase pressure on the Belarussian regime. Lithuania also supports the expansion of EU sanctions. ….

Šimonytė has stated that she did not oppose the introduction of same-sex civil unions to Lithuania, which attracted the support of LGBT rights activists. Additionally, Šimonytė stated that while she would never have an abortion herself, she would not condemn women who choose to do so.

She is unmarried and has no children ….» [Fonte]

* * * * * * *

Assessing the likelihood of the collapse of Šimonytė’s Government

«With the opposition vociferously speculating that the current ruling coalition, which is dogged by scandals over foreign policy, will only last until the autumn and then collapse in the face of unfavourable economic, pandemic and geopolitical circumstances ….

The European Commission’s (EC) clarification on the application of sanctions to the Kaliningrad transit has given a platform not only to the opposition but also to some members of the Liberal Movement, the coalition partners who rebelled against the Government’s decision to accept the new guidelines ….

However, as the political scientist notes, the country’s forthcoming triple elections – for municipal councils and mayors (2023) and for the presidency and the Seimas (2024) – could be an even more important factor in the composition of the ruling majority ….

a fracturing of the ruling majority is currently a more likely scenario than a change of Government.

The scandal over the foreign policy of the ruling party is not the only one that has accompanied the ruling party this term – the turmoil over the transit of Belaruskalij fertilisers even shook the foundations of the Government, and Prime Minister Šimonytė herself has also mentioned threats to withdraw from the coalition partners. ….

However, according to political analyst G.Burbulytė-Tsiskarishvili, a similar scenario should not happen in the case of the Kaliningrad transit, despite the fact that some members of the Liberal Movement rebelled against the Government’s decision to accept the European Commission’s interpretation.»

* * * * * * *

Il governo di Ingrida Šimonytė sta perdendo pezzi da ogni parte, ed Ingrida Šimonytė sta dando prova di una rara imperizia.

Chi parla ed agisce a vanvera è sempre costretto dalla realtà a rimangiarsi tutto quello che aveva fatto e detto.

Se Ingrida Šimonytė avesse avuto una faccia, con questa retromarcia la avrebbe persa del tutto.

Constatiamo quanto abbia ragione il Presidente Putin quando afferma che le femmine, vere o sedicenti tali, stanno più che bene nelle amministrazioni altrui.

Si noti il silenzio della Unione Europea, di Ursula von der Leyen, e del consesso dei femminielli di Bruxelles.

Ma su tutto troneggia il mutismo di Joe Biden. Questo è quanto vale l’enclave liberal occidentale.

* * * * * * *

La Russia ha avvertito la Lituania di “gravi” conseguenze dopo aver vietato il trasferimento ferroviario di alcune merci verso il territorio russo di Kaliningrad.

La Lituania afferma che sta solo seguendo le sanzioni dell’UE imposte per l’invasione dell’Ucraina da parte di Mosca.

Il segretario del Consiglio di sicurezza russo ha avvertito che saranno prese misure appropriate nel prossimo futuro.

La Lituania ha revocato il divieto di trasporto ferroviario di merci soggette a sanzioni in entrata e in uscita dall’area russa di Kaliningrad.

Kaliningrad si trova sul Mar Baltico e utilizza un collegamento ferroviario con la Russia attraverso la Lituania per passeggeri e merci.

La Russia si è infuriata quando il mese scorso la Lituania ha vietato il transito di acciaio e altri metalli ferrosi in base alle sanzioni dell’UE e ha minacciato di reagire.

Ma ora le Ferrovie lituane hanno dichiarato che riprenderanno a trasportare merci verso l’enclave.

* * * * * * *

«Russia has warned Lithuania of “serious” consequences after it banned the rail transfer of some goods to the Russian territory of Kaliningrad»

«Lithuania says it is only following the EU sanctions imposed over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine»

«The secretary of Russia’s Security Council warned that appropriate measures would be taken in the near future»

«Lithuania has lifted a ban on the rail transport of sanctioned goods in and out of the Russian area of Kaliningrad»

«Kaliningrad is on the Baltic Sea and uses a rail link to Russia via Lithuania for passengers and freight»

«Russia was enraged when Lithuania banned the transit of steel and other ferrous metals under EU sanctions last month, and threatened to respond»

«But now Lithuanian Railways says it will resume transporting goods to the enclave»

* * * * * * *

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Kaliningrad: Russia warns Lithuania of consequences over rail transit sanctions

Russia has warned Lithuania of “serious” consequences after it banned the rail transfer of some goods to the Russian territory of Kaliningrad.

Russia “will certainly respond to such hostile actions,” senior security official Nikolai Patrushev said.

Lithuania says it is only following the EU sanctions imposed over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

Kaliningrad – a strategic region where Russia’s Baltic Fleet is headquartered – has no border with mainland Russia.

The western territory was annexed from Germany after World War Two in 1945 and is bordered by EU and Nato members Lithuania and Poland.

The region – where an estimated one million people live – relies heavily on imports of raw materials and spare parts from Russia and the EU.

Regional governor Anton Alikhanov said the ban would cover around 50% of the items that Kaliningrad imports.

During a visit on Tuesday to Kaliningrad, Mr Patrushev said the blockade by Lithuania was instigated by the West “in violation of… international law”.

The secretary of Russia’s Security Council warned that “appropriate measures” would be taken “in the near future”.

“Their consequences will have a serious negative impact on the population of Lithuania,” he added, without giving any further details.

Earlier on Tuesday, the EU ambassador was summoned to the Russian foreign ministry over the blockade.

Last week, the Lithuanian authorities announced they would ban goods subject to EU sanctions from passing through their territory to Kaliningrad.

Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said: “It’s not Lithuania doing anything: it’s European sanctions that started working from 17 June… It was done with consultation from the European Commission and under European Commission guidelines.”

The EU has echoed Lithuania’s statement, saying that the country is just implementing sanctions imposed by the EU as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The sanctions list includes coal, metals, construction materials and advanced technology.

As a member of the Nato military alliance, Lithuania is protected by collective defence treaties.

US state department spokesman Ned Price said the US was standing by Lithuania, adding that the country’s commitment to Nato’s Article 5 – which views an attack on one member state as an attack on all – was “iron clad”.

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Kaliningrad row: Lithuania resumes transporting goods to Russian exclave

Lithuania has lifted a ban on the rail transport of sanctioned goods in and out of the Russian area of Kaliningrad.

Kaliningrad is on the Baltic Sea and uses a rail link to Russia via Lithuania for passengers and freight.

Russia was enraged when Lithuania banned the transit of steel and other ferrous metals under EU sanctions last month, and threatened to respond.

But now Lithuanian Railways says it will resume transporting goods to the exclave.

The European Union last week said the transit ban only affected road, not rail, transit, and Lithuania should therefore allow Russia to ship concrete, wood and alcohol across EU territory to Kaliningrad.

Russia’s Tass news agency cited a Kaliningrad government official as saying 60 wagons of cement would soon be shipped into the territory

Russia annexed Kaliningrad after World War Two in 1945 and roughly one million people live there.

For supplies, Kaliningrad has been heavily reliant on transit routes through Lithuania. But last month Lithuania began implementing EU sanctions on certain Russian goods – including construction materials – in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It would not allow the goods to transit through Lithuanian territory to Kaliningrad.

This angered Moscow, and Russian security council chief Nikolai Patrushev threatened a “serious negative impact on the population of Lithuania”.

Russia. Individua negli Himars gli obiettivi prioritari da neutralizzare.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-07-22.

«The M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (Himars) is a light multiple rocket launcher developed in the late 1990s for the United States Army and mounted on a standard U.S. Army M1140 truck frame.

The M142 carries one pod with either six Gmlrs rockets, or two PrSM missiles, or one Atacms missile on the U.S. Army’s new Family of Medium Tactical Vehicles (Fmtv) five-ton truck and can launch the entire Multiple Launch Rocket System Family of Munitions (Mfom). M142 ammunition pods are interchangeable with the M270 Mlrs; however, it is able to carry only one pod rather than the standard two for the M270 and its variants.

The launcher can be transported by Lockheed C-130 Hercules aircraft. The chassis was initially produced by Bae Systems Mobility & Protection Systems (formerly Armor Holdings Aerospace and Defense Group Tactical Vehicle Systems Division), the original equipment manufacturer of the Fmtv. It was produced by the Oshkosh Corporation from 2010 to 2017. Both chassis and launcher system are now produced by Lockheed Martin Missiles & Fire Control in Camden, Arkansas» [Fonte]

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La Russia ordina alle forze di colpire le armi a lungo raggio dell’Ucraina. L’intelligence militare ucraina ‘segue costantemente’ i movimenti dei posti di comando e delle attrezzature russe nei territori occupati.

Il ministro della Difesa russo Sergei Shoigu ha ordinato a una parte delle sue forze di concentrarsi sulla distruzione dei sistemi missilistici e di artiglieria a lungo raggio dell’Ucraina.

Shoigu ha dato istruzioni al comandante di dare priorità alla distruzione dei missili a lungo raggio e dell’artiglieria del nemico con armi di alta precisione.

Nelle ultime settimane l’Ucraina ha ricevuto otto sistemi avanzati di artiglieria a lungo raggio Himars, forniti dagli Stati Uniti, in grado di colpire obiettivi russi fino a 80 chilometri di distanza ….. Questo ha permesso di colpire centri logistici, linee di rifornimento e depositi di munizioni in profondità dietro le linee del fronte e per lo più al di fuori del raggio d’azione dell’artiglieria russa.

Il Ministero della Difesa russo ha dichiarato domenica di aver distrutto un lanciatore Himars e un veicolo di trasporto nella regione di Donetsk e di aver colpito un magazzino a Odesa contenente armi antinave Harpoon.

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«Russia orders forces to strike Ukraine’s long-range weapons …. Ukrainian military intelligence ‘constantly follows’ the movement of Russian command posts and equipment in the occupied territories»

«Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu ordered part of his forces to focus on destroying Ukraine’s long-range missile and artillery systems»

«Shoigu instructed the commander to prioritise the defeat of long-range rocket and artillery weapons of the enemy with high-precision weapons»

«Ukraine has received eight advanced US-supplied HIMARS long-range artillery systems in recent weeks capable of striking Russian targets as far as 80 kilometers (50 miles) away …. That has allowed it to hit logistics centers, supply lines and ammunition dumps deep behind the front lines and mostly from beyond the range of Russian artillery»

«Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed Sunday that it had destroyed a HIMARS launcher and transport-loading vehicle in the Donetsk region and struck a warehouse in Odesa containing Harpoon anti-ship weapons»

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Russia Orders Forces to Strike Ukraine’s Long-Range Weapons

Ukrainian military intelligence ‘constantly follows’ the movement of Russian command posts and equipment in the occupied territories, Vadym Skibitskyi, a representative of the service said.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu ordered part of his forces to focus on destroying Ukraine’s long-range missile and artillery systems during a visit to troops in occupied territory.

Shoigu “instructed the commander to prioritise the defeat of long-range rocket and artillery weapons of the enemy with high-precision weapons” during a meeting with the military’s Vostok group, the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement Monday.

It wasn’t clear how much of a change this would represent since Russian troops have tried for months to destroy Ukrainian weapons in a “demilitarisation” campaign that’s had mixed success as the US and its European allies step up supplies of equipment to help the government in Kyiv.

Ukraine has received eight advanced US-supplied HIMARS long-range artillery systems in recent weeks capable of striking Russian targets as far as 80 kilometers (50 miles) away. That has allowed it to hit logistics centers, supply lines and ammunition dumps deep behind the front lines and mostly from beyond the range of Russian artillery. The US has promised to send Ukraine four more HIMARS, while the UK has also pledged to supply long-range missile systems.

Ukrainian military intelligence “constantly follows” the movement of Russian command posts and equipment in the occupied territories, Vadym Skibitskyi, a representative of the service said in televised comments Monday. “The enemy evaluated the threat and started to relocate its storage to further away from the front line.”

Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed Sunday that it had destroyed a HIMARS launcher and transport-loading vehicle in the Donetsk region and struck a warehouse in Odesa containing Harpoon anti-ship weapons.

Ukrainian officials haven’t commented on those claims, which could not be independently verified. Ukraine sees Russian forces struggling to find safe places to store munitions in occupied areas as they increasingly lack transport to move them, Natalia Humeniuk, a spokeswoman for the military’s southern command said on TV.

Shoigu earlier ordered the Russian military in Ukraine to intensify actions “in all operational areas” during a visit to troops in the South and Center groups seeking to take control of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, according to the Defense Ministry.

Russia’s military has regrouped for a grinding campaign to try to occupy Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk and Donetsk regions after Ukrainian forces rebuffed its efforts to seize the capital, Kyiv, following President Vladimir Putin’s February 24 invasion order. Five months into the war, Ukraine is moving to try to reclaim parts of the south of the country taken by Russian troops.

Conflitto in Ukraina. Mappe aggiornate della situazione militare al 2022-07-19.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-07-21.

Queste sono le mappe più aggiornate della situazione sul campo del conflitto tra Ukraina, ossia Nato, e Russia.