Pubblicato in: Cina, Materie Prime

Carbone. Rotterdam Coal Futures 127.0, – 14.19%. Questa è la forza della Cina.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-11-30.

2021-11-30__Coal 001

«China’s thermal coal futures dropped 5.6% on Monday after the state economic planner signalled further regulations for prices of the dirty power-generation fuel»

«The most-active Zhengzhou thermal coal futures contract, for January delivery , was 819.6 yuan ($128.31) a tonne as of 0147 GMT. It has lost more than 142% from a peak of 1,982 yuan a tonne in mid-October following a slew of government interventions to tame the red-hot prices»

«Some coal miners at top mining regions, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi, have caped prices at 900 yuan a tonne for 5,500 kilocalorie under regulators’ pressures»

«Coal storage at power generators across China reached 147 million tonnes last week and may hit an all-time high by the end of November»

* * * * * * *

I media occidentali hanno grandemente sottovalutato la potenza di fuoco della Cina.

«può colpire un massimo storico entro la fine di novembre»

E così è stato.

* * * * * * *


China’s coal prices plunge after govt signals more price regulation

BEIJING, Nov 29 (Reuters) – China’s thermal coal futures dropped 5.6% on Monday after the state economic planner signalled further regulations for prices of the dirty power-generation fuel.

The most-active Zhengzhou thermal coal futures contract, for January delivery , was 819.6 yuan ($128.31) a tonne as of 0147 GMT. It has lost more than 142% from a peak of 1,982 yuan a tonne in mid-October following a slew of government interventions to tame the red-hot prices.

The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said on Monday that it has summoned key coal miners for advices on improving coal prices mechanism.

“After recent abnormal rise in coal prices, it is time to improve the coal prices mechanism,” said the NDRC in a statement, adding that all market participants have reached a consensus on the reasonable range of coal prices.

But it did not disclose any details of the price level.

The NDRC has organised several meetings with coal miners and distributors, as well as power firms and legal experts since late October, aiming to set a coal prices target.

Some coal miners at top mining regions, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi, have caped prices at 900 yuan a tonne for 5,500 kilocalorie under regulators’ pressures.

Meanwhile, Beijing has instructed ramping up of output and power plants to build up inventory as winter heating season kicked in northern China.

Coal storage at power generators across China reached 147 million tonnes last week and may hit an all-time high by the end of November, according to the state planner.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo

Canada. Banca Centrale avverte. Gli immobili sono saliti anche del 73%. Bolla instabile.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-11-30.

Canada 005

«→→ Fear is not a good motivator when you’re buying a house ←←»

* * * * * * *

«Canadian housing prices are set to surge again in the coming months as investors and first-time buyers scramble to buy before interest rates go up, ignoring a warning from the Bank of Canada that there is a high risk of a sudden price drop»

«Those conditions could “expose the market to a higher chance of a correction,”»

«Whenever interest rates start rising, people get into the market, including investors. So you will see an acceleration in activity over the next few months»

«Canadian house prices skyrocketed 31.6% year-over-year in March to hit a record high before softening a bit over the summer»

«Fitch has pegged Toronto’s housing market at 32% overvalued and Vancouver’s at 23%. Moody’s Analytics also has Vancouver 23% overvalued, Toronto 40% and Hamilton, Ontario, 73%»

«The average price of a home in Toronto, Canada’s biggest city, hit C$1.2 million ($947,493) in October, up 19.3% from the previous year»

«prices have climbed 77% nationwide since he [Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau] took office in 2015»

«→→ Fear is not a good motivator when you’re buying a house ←←»

«The Bank of Canada said investor buying has doubled since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic»

* * * * * * *


«The price of products manufactured in Canada, as measured by the Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI), increased 1.0% month over month in September and 14.9% compared with the same month in 2020 ….

Compared with September 2020, the RMPI [Raw Materials Price Index] rose 31.9%, driven upward mainly by prices of conventional crude oil (+79.2%), synthetic crude oil (+77.6%) and canola (+76.6%).» [Statistics Canada]

Il Canada è in stagflazione, con un indice PPI di 14.9%.

In una simile situazione, i piccoli risparmiatori non sanno più a quale santo votarsi, per salvare almeno parzialmente i propri risparmi.

La Banca Centrale del Canada ha lanciato un warning, esortando a non farsi prendere dalla paura e dalla fretta. Non prevede un crollo imminente, ma un ridimensionamento apparirebbe essere verosimile.

* * * * * * *


Up, up, up: Canada house prices poised to surge again despite central bank warning

Ottawa, Nov 24 (Reuters) – Canadian housing prices are set to surge again in the coming months as investors and first-time buyers scramble to buy before interest rates go up, ignoring a warning from the Bank of Canada that there is a high risk of a sudden price drop.

Central bank Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry told would-be home buyers on Tuesday to consider if it is a “good time to buy or not,” pointing to market frothiness in certain cities and renewed investor activity.

Those conditions could “expose the market to a higher chance of a correction,” he said.

The Bank of Canada last month signaled the overnight rate, currently at a record low 0.25%, could start rising in the “middle quarters” of 2022. Another rush to buy is probably already under way, analysts said.

“Whenever interest rates start rising, people get into the market, including investors. So you will see an acceleration in activity over the next few months,” said Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at CIBC Capital Markets.

Canadian house prices skyrocketed 31.6% year-over-year in March to hit a record high before softening a bit over the summer. Prices are now accelerating again, with October’s average price barely below the March peak.

Ratings agencies are taking notice. Fitch has pegged Toronto’s housing market at 32% overvalued and Vancouver’s at 23%. Moody’s Analytics also has Vancouver 23% overvalued, Toronto 40% and Hamilton, Ontario, 73%.

The average price of a home in Toronto, Canada’s biggest city, hit C$1.2 million ($947,493) in October, up 19.3% from the previous year, and detached homes now average C$1.5 million.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has pledged to act on the runaway market, but critics note prices have climbed 77% nationwide since he took office in 2015.

Toronto mortgage broker Ron Butler says he is getting busier by the hour with clients desperate to get into the market.

“We see it, literally, hourly here … people who have simply given up and say: ‘The prices are going to go up forever, I have to buy now,'” he said.

Butler said he is working with one longtime Toronto renter who has been waiting years for prices to fall so he could get into the market. Now he is buying an hour’s drive west in Hamilton because he is worried he will never own a home otherwise.

Fear “is not a good motivator when you’re buying a house,” said Butler, adding that investors too are increasingly gripped by the “fear of missing out,” or FOMO.

                         ‘RUSH TO BEAT RATE HIKES’.

Butler estimates that investors – those who buy properties to rent out or to hold for speculative gains – make up about 25% of housing demand at this point, with that number far higher in major cities and particularly in pre-sale condo markets.

The Bank of Canada said investor buying has doubled since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, but economists see demand holding up.

“We don’t expect a collapse. But we see prices being close to flat next year,” said Jimmy Jean, chief economist at Desjardins Group in Montreal, adding that demand is expected to remain “pretty decent,” pointing to strong immigration.

Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, also expects a short-term “rush to beat rate hikes,” but then only a moderate pullback in markets that were supercharged by the pandemic.

“The history of the last 15 years has been cluttered with those calling for a crash in the Canadian housing market to be proved wrong time and time again,” Porter said.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo

Germania. Ambizioni verdi, riduzione del debito, incertezze su chi pagherà.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-11-30.

2021-11-27__ Germania prezzi import 001

«The new government has big plans to modernize the economy and switch to renewable energy»

«But the question remains how it will pay for it»

«→→ Who will pay for it all is another question ←←»

* * * * * * *

«Most roofs will be fitted with solar panels and more than 1,000 windmills will be built, almost doubling the share of renewable sources for electricity to 80 percent by 2030»

«The last coal mine will close the same year, eight years earlier than planned»

«And 15 million electric cars will roam the country’s fabled Autobahn»

«At least that is the ambition of what Olaf Scholz, the designated next chancellor»

«→→ Who will pay for it all is another question ←←»

«The Greens campaigned to spend 50 billion euros in green investments each year for a decade to bankroll the country’s transition to renewable energy»

«Ultimately, Mr. Lindner won [finance ministry], while Mr. Habeck will oversee a new super-ministry of economy and climate»

«The new government has woven the commitment to put in place measures that would limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century»

«Reaching the climate goals of Paris is our top priority»

«Germany’s debt brake, which was written into the Constitution in 2009, restricts annual borrowing to 0.35 percent of the nominal gross domestic product, amounting to roughly 12 billion euros a year, a far cry from the 50 billion the Greens say is needed»

«One is to exploit the temporary suspension of the debt brake during the pandemic»

«Another way to raise money is to beef up the state development bank»

«There are also ways to tweak the formula according to how the debt brake is calculated and raise the spending limit»

«No other country in Europe is doing what we’re doing, …. Our neighbors either hold on to coal, like Poland, or bet on nuclear energy, like France»

* * * * * * *

Germania. Oct21. Import Prices +21.7% anno su anno. Natural Gas +193.9%. Germania kaputt.

Germania. Oct21. PPI, producer prices, +18.4% anno su anno. Germania Kaputt.

Germania. Sept21. Produzione Industriale -9.5% su Feb2020. – Destatis.

Europa. Elettricità. In Germania ed in Italia le tasse pesano per il 49.9% e 40.7%, rispettivamente

Germania. Sept21. Vendite al dettaglio -2.5% MoM, -0.9% anno su anno. Stagflazione.

Germania. Il 39% delle nuove costruzioni è riscaldata con natural gas. – Destatis.

Mercedes-Benz fa fagotto e si trasferisce in Cina, che chiama ‘nuova Patria’

Germania. Demografia. Tasso di fertilità crollato a 1.54. – Destatis.

Germania. La demografia stritola Germania e Große Koalition.

Germania. Mancano 1.6 milioni di lavoratori esperti, Meister.

Germania. Demografia. Accademia Tecnica. Mancano dieci milioni di lavoratori.

* * * * * * *

I macrodati tedeschi sono semplicemente da incubo.

Sinceramente nutriamo seri dubbi che il nuovo governo possa reperire 50 miliardi all’anno per dieci anni continuativi.

2045?

A quella data la popolazione autoctona tedesca sarà quasi la metà di quella attuale. Sempre poi che la Germania esista ancora.

* * * * * * *


Will Germany’s ‘Debt Brake’ Stop Its Green Ambitions? – NYT

The new government has big plans to modernize the economy and switch to renewable energy. But the question remains how it will pay for it.

Berlin — In the middle of Germany’s election campaign, almost 200 people died in extreme floods in Germany. Four months later, the fight against climate change has become the central theme of the new post-Merkel government.

Most roofs will be fitted with solar panels and more than 1,000 windmills will be built, almost doubling the share of renewable sources for electricity to 80 percent by 2030. The last coal mine will close the same year, eight years earlier than planned. And 15 million electric cars will roam the country’s fabled Autobahn.

At least that is the ambition of what Olaf Scholz, the designated next chancellor, says will be the “biggest industrial modernization of Germany in more than 100 years.” It was part of the governing plan he and his coalition partners announced on Wednesday.

Who will pay for it all is another question — and one that was hotly debated by the very different parties who have joined Mr. Scholz’s Social Democrats, the progressive Greens and the pro-business Free Democrats.

The Greens campaigned to spend 50 billion euros in green investments each year for a decade to bankroll the country’s transition to renewable energy — and pay for it by scrapping the country’s strict balanced budget rule.

The Free Democrats agreed to join the government only on condition of not raising any taxes and upholding the country’s balanced budget law, a so-called debt brake enshrined in its Constitution.

t was not by coincidence that the biggest battle in the six weeks of talks to form a coalition was who would control the finance ministry and with it the purse strings. Both Robert Habeck, co-leader of the Greens, and Christian Lindner, leader of the Free Democrats, wanted the job and fought for it until the end.

Ultimately, Mr. Lindner won, while Mr. Habeck will oversee a new super-ministry of economy and climate.

“Regarding finance: It’s no secret that the positions in the coalition are far apart,” Mr. Habeck of the Greens told Süddeutsche Zeitung in an interview published Thursday. “We spoke intensely about taxes, cutting subsidies and market regulation. If you ask me where I would have liked to see more, it’s this area.”

One of the biggest questions for climate change experts is whether the commitment to put Germany — Europe’s biggest economy — on a path to carbon neutrality by 2045 is still an issue primarily pushed by the Greens or is now truly a project shared by all members of the new administration.

“Will its achievements match the ambitions, or will the parties fall back to ideological starting points?” said Lutz Weischer, who heads the Berlin-based office of Germanwatch, an environmental watchdog.

There are some hopeful signs, he said. By turning the green transition into a national project of industrial competitiveness and social justice, each of the three parties has been able to sell it to their base.

The new government has woven the commitment to put in place measures that would limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, as stipulated by the Paris climate agreement, throughout its 177-page governing deal. There are 198 mentions of “climate” in that document, in all policy areas from culture to foreign policy.

“The climate crisis endangers our livelihood and threatens freedom, prosperity and security,” the preamble of the coalition treaty states. “Reaching the climate goals of Paris is our top priority. We want to reinvent our social market economy as a social-ecological market economy.”

Even Mr. Lindner, the leader of the libertarian Free Democrats, proudly called the treaty “the most ambitious climate protection program of any industrialized nation.”

“If that really is the spirit of the new government, then it is a real game changer,” Mr. Weischer said. “But it remains to be seen.”

Germany’s debt brake, which was written into the Constitution in 2009, restricts annual borrowing to 0.35 percent of the nominal gross domestic product, amounting to roughly 12 billion euros a year, a far cry from the 50 billion the Greens say is needed.

But there are signs that the new government has found some back-door solutions to borrowing.

One is to exploit the temporary suspension of the debt brake during the pandemic. As finance minister, Mr. Scholz last year suspended the spending limit, which is allowed under a national emergency, and the coalition treaty says it will not be reinstated until the end of 2022.

That gives the new government time to borrow money and put it in a fund that will continue to run even after the limit on borrowing comes back into force.

Another way to raise money is to beef up the state development bank, known as KfW, which can borrow funds that the government can then earmark for infrastructure projects and other investments — without it appearing on the federal budget.

There are also ways to tweak the formula according to how the debt brake is calculated and raise the spending limit that way, economists said.

Few expect that this creative accounting will be enough to raise the 50 billion euros per year the Greens had lobbied for, but the commitment to a significant increase in public investment was broadly applauded.

“I think this agreement signals a change,” said Clemens Fuest, president of the Ifo economic institute. “A lot of transformation investments are really being pushed harder now.”

Marcel Fratzscher, head of the German Institute for Economic Research, said he was impressed with the detail in the proposed measures.

“There is a wind of change in the air,” Mr. Fratzscher said. “On climate, it is very ambitious, very detailed and very convincing program. Whether it’s enough to make Germany compliant with the 1.5 degree target is to be seen.”

Environmental organizations and climate activists were not convinced.

“This coalition agreement alone is not enough to ensure the 1.5 degree limit,” the Fridays for Future youth movement said in a statement. According to Greenpeace, the program “only hints at a radical ecological breakthrough.”

Mr. Habeck, the future economy and climate minister, acknowledged the difficulties ahead.

“No other country in Europe is doing what we’re doing,” Mr. Habeck said. “Our neighbors either hold on to coal, like Poland, or bet on nuclear energy, like France, or they’re doing both and a little bit of renewable energy. We are leaving behind both old technologies.”

“There will be decisions that will be difficult,” he added. “I know that.”

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, India

India. Vorrebbe bloccare le criptovalute. Herr Hjalmar Schacht torna di attualità.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-11-30.

Schacht Hjalmar 001

«India seeks to block most cryptocurrencies in new bill»

«The government will allow only certain cryptocurrencies to promote the underlying technology and its uses»

«India is also looking to make a framework for the official digital currency issued by the Reserve Bank of India»

«India is looking to bar most private cryptocurrencies when it introduces a new bill to regulate virtual currencies»

«Through the Cryptocurrency and Regulation of Official Digital Currency Bill, 2021, India is also looking to make a framework for the official digital currency that will be issued by the Reserve Bank of India»

«The central bank has voiced “serious concerns” about private cryptocurrencies»

«Bitcoin, the world’s biggest cryptocurrency, is hovering around $60,000, and its price has more than doubled since the start of this year, attracting hordes of local investors»

«there are 15 million to 20 million crypto investors in India, with total crypto holdings of around 400 billion rupees ($5.39 billion)»

«But a senior government official told Reuters that the plan is to ban private crypto assets»

* * * * * * *

Cina. Dichiarate illegali le criptovalute e le loro transazioni. Un gran bel siluro.

«Nessuno stato sovrano può permettersi che una valuta non propria possa liberamente circolare, essere utilizzata per transazioni, ma a volumi e con prezzi di cambio stabiliti da realtà extraterritoriali»

* * *

Tutto il mondo è in piena stagflazione.

Di giovedì la notizia che la Spagna ha un PPI, indice dei prezzi alla produzione (Producer Price Index, PPI) del 31.9%.

I vari stati si stanno dando un gran da fare per ‘addolcire’ i macrodati quali il pil ed il PPI, ma i Consumatori esperiscono gli aumenti dei prezzi quando comprano qualcosa, a partire dagli alimentari.

Le banche centrali hanno accumulato debiti sovrani da capogiro ed hanno immesso nel sistema economico fantastiche quantità di liquidità: è un sistema che non può durare in eterno.

Da molti punti di vista sembrerebbe profilarsi un qualcosa che ricorderebbe i Mefo ideati a suo tempo da Herr Hjalmar Schacht. Obbligazioni fantasma di esclusivo uso interno, grazie alle quali la Reichsbank riuscì ad ottenere il contenimento dell’iperinflazione ed a riportare in pareggio il bilancio statale.

Il vero problema è che nel quadro mondiale di gente della levatura di Herr Hjalmar Schacht sembrerebbe non vederne nessuno.

* * *


India seeks to block most cryptocurrencies in new bill, government says.

– The government will allow only certain cryptocurrencies to promote the underlying technology and its uses, according to a legislative agenda for the winter Parliament session.

– Through the Cryptocurrency and Regulation of Official Digital Currency Bill, 2021, India is also looking to make a framework for the official digital currency issued by the Reserve Bank of India.

– Prime Minister Narendra Modi chaired a meeting to discuss the future of cryptocurrencies amid concerns that unregulated crypto markets could become avenues for money laundering and terror financing, sources said.

* * *

India is looking to bar most private cryptocurrencies when it introduces a new bill to regulate virtual currencies in the winter session of Parliament, the government said late on Tuesday.

The government will allow only certain cryptocurrencies to promote the underlying technology and its uses, according to a legislative agenda for the winter session that is set to start later this month.

Through the Cryptocurrency and Regulation of Official Digital Currency Bill, 2021, India is also looking to make a framework for the official digital currency that will be issued by the Reserve Bank of India.

The central bank has voiced “serious concerns” about private cryptocurrencies and is set to launch its own digital currency by December.

Bitcoin, the world’s biggest cryptocurrency, is hovering around $60,000, and its price has more than doubled since the start of this year, attracting hordes of local investors.

No official data is available but industry estimates suggest there are 15 million to 20 million crypto investors in India, with total crypto holdings of around 400 billion rupees ($5.39 billion).

Earlier this year, India’s government considered criminalizing the possession, issuance, mining, trading and transference of crypto assets, but a bill was not introduced

Since then, the government has changed its stance slightly and is now looking to discourage trading in cryptocurrencies by imposing hefty capital gains and other taxes, two sources told Reuters this month.

But a senior government official told Reuters that the plan is to ban private crypto assets ultimately while paving the way for a new Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC).

Prime Minister Narendra Modi chaired a meeting to discuss the future of cryptocurrencies amid concerns that unregulated crypto markets could become avenues for money laundering and terror financing, sources told Reuters separately.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

Usa. Sept21. Census Bureau. Classi di Reddito e povertà.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-11-29.

2021-11-24__ Usa Distribuzione Income 001

Il Report del Census Bureau è molto esteso, e ne riportiamo i titoli delle tabelle allegate per completezza espositiva. Queste Tabelle sono linkabili, ed ad esse si rimanda per approfondimenti.

Riportiamo in estratto la sola Tabella C-3, che ripartisce in quantili le classi di reddito netto dopo il prelievo fiscale.

Diverse le cose importanti da notare.

In primo luogo, i primi tre quantili, ossia i redditi inferiori, sono aumentati percentualmente nel 2020 rispetto al 2019, soprattutto nel primo quantile, passato da 3.8 a 4.2.

In secondo luogo, i primi tre quantili assommano al 29.6% della popolazione totale. Questa quota vive con un reddito netto dopo il prelievo fiscale inferiore al valore mediano.

In terzo luogo, quarto e quinto quantile sono lievemente flessi nel 2020 rispetto ai valori percentuali che avevano nel 2019.

* * * * * * *

Si noti che per una famiglia composta da due membri, la soglia di povertà è 16,733 dollari di redito netto dopo il prelievo fiscale. [Poverty Thresholds: 2020]

Il quadro che ne esce è quello di una America che stia bruciando ricchezza.

In ogni caso, l’aumento della popolazione con redditi inferiori al 29.6% de totale è un pessimo segno prognostico per gli Stati Uniti.

* * * * * * *


Lo United States Census Bureau ha rilasciato il Report Income and Poverty in the United States: 2020.

                         Income:

Table A-1. Income Summary Measures by Selected Characteristics: 2019 and 2020

Table A-2. Households by Total Money Income, Race, and Hispanic Origin of Householder: 1967 to 2020

Table D-1. Historical Median Income Using Alternative Price Indices: 1967 to 2020

Income Inequality:

Table A-3. Income Distribution Measures Using Money Income and Equivalence-Adjusted Income: 2019 and 2020

Table A-4a and A-4b. Selected Measures of Household Income Dispersion

Table A-5. Selected Measures of Equivalence-Adjusted Income Dispersion: 1967 to 2020

                         Earnings:

Table A-6. Earnings Summary Measures by Selected Characteristics: 2019 and 2020

Table A-7. Number and Real Median Earnings of Total Workers and Full-Time, Year-Round Workers by Sex and Female-to-Male Earnings Ratio: 1960 to 2020

                         Poverty:    

Poverty Thresholds: 2020

Table B-1. People in Poverty by Selected Characteristics: 2019 and 2020

Table B-2. Families and People in Poverty by Type of Family: 2019 and 2020 

Table B-3. People With Income Below Specified Ratios of Their Poverty Thresholds by Selected Characteristics: 2020 Table B-4. Poverty Status of People by Family Relationship, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1959 to 2020

Table B-5. Poverty Status of People by Age, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1959 to 2020

Table B-6. Poverty Status of Families by Type of Family: 1959 to 2020

Impact on Poverty of Alternative Resource Measures by Age: 1981 to 2020

Impact on Poverty of Alternative Resource Measures by Selected Characteristics: 2020  

Income Deficit or Surplus of Primary Families and Unrelated Individuals by Poverty Status: 2020

Percentage of People in Poverty by State Using 2- and 3-Year Averages: 2017-2018 and 2019-2020

Interrelationships of 3-Year Average State Poverty Rates: 2018 – 2020

                         Post-Tax Household Income:

Table C-1. Post-Tax Household Income Summary Measures by Selected Characteristics: 2019 and 2020

Table C-2. Summary Measures by Selected Characteristics Using Money Income and Post-Tax Income: 2020

Table C-3. Distribution Measures Using Post-Tax Income and Equivalence-Adjusted Post-Tax Income: 2019 and 2020

Table C-4. Distribution Measures Using Money Income, Post-Tax Income, Equivalence-Adjusted Income, and Equivalence-Adjusted Post-Tax Income: 2020

Pubblicato in: Agricoltura, Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime

Fertilizzanti. Si prospetta una carestia a livello mondiale. La fame proprio ci mancava.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-11-29.

2021-11-28__Fertilizzanti 002

«A global shortage of fertilisers is driving up food prices and leaving poorer countries facing crisis, says the boss of a major fertiliser firm»

«higher gas prices were pushing up fertiliser costs and affecting food prices worldwide»

«Fertiliser requires large amounts of gas in its production»

«Yara had been forced to cut some production due to higher gas prices, which had led to shortages»

«developing countries would be hit hardest by the shortages, with crop yields declining and food prices rising»

«It’s really scary, we are facing a food crisis and vulnerable people are being hit very hard»

«But for some people, especially in the developing world, this is not only a question about the wallet, but it’s a question of life or death»

«Less fertiliser, …. meant farmers in developing countries would not be able to plant as efficiently, leading to smaller crops»

«Farmers apply fertilizers to boost yields of crops such as corn, canola and wheat»

«reduced wind or rain for renewable power»

«This has led to a sharp rise in the cost of producing fertiliser, with the price of ammonia …. up 255% on last year»

* * * * * * *

La produzione mondiale dei fertilizzati ammonta a poco più di 199.9 milioni di tonnellate l’anno. Dieci anni or sono era 177.3 milioni di tonnellate.

L’aumento dell’ammoniaca del 255% in un anno mette a terra ogni sistema produttivo.

Pudicamente, nessuno osa dire che questa tipologia di prodotti è gravata da ogni sorta di accise e tasse, riscosse per finanziare i piani Green: i morti non mangiano, non consumano, non producono. Talora sono però utili durante il periodo elettorale.

* * * * * * *


Poorest face food crisis amid fertiliser shortage.

A global shortage of fertilisers is driving up food prices and leaving poorer countries facing crisis, says the boss of a major fertiliser firm.

Svein Tore Holsether, chief executive of Yara International, said higher gas prices were pushing up fertiliser costs and affecting food prices worldwide.

Fertiliser requires large amounts of gas in its production.

Mr Holsether said Yara had been forced to cut some production due to higher gas prices, which had led to shortages.

The chief executive said developing countries would be hit hardest by the shortages, with crop yields declining and food prices rising.

“It’s really scary, we are facing a food crisis and vulnerable people are being hit very hard,” he told the BBC’s Today programme.

“It’s impacting food prices all over the world and it hits the wallets of many people. But for some people, especially in the developing world, this is not only a question about the wallet, but it’s a question of life or death.”

Less fertiliser, Mr Holsether said, meant farmers in developing countries would not be able to plant as efficiently, leading to smaller crops.

Farmers apply fertilizers to boost yields of crops such as corn, canola and wheat. The process of creating ammonia, which is present in many fertilisers, currently relies on hydropower or natural gas.

                         ‘Volatile’

The increase in gas prices in recent months has been triggered by several factors which have increased demand, including the unlocking of economies during the pandemic and reduced wind or rain for renewable power.

This has led to a sharp rise in the cost of producing fertiliser, with the price of ammonia – the product Yara International produces more than anyone in the world – up 255% on last year.

Mr Holsether said the situation was “very volatile” and called for support and funding for the World Food Programme “to avoid famine at massive scale”.

He said that last year Yara donated 40,000 tonnes of fertiliser, which resulted in small-hold farms in East Africa tripling their crop yields.

“It says a lot about the impact that fertiliser can have,” he added.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Commercio, Devoluzione socialismo

UNCTAD. Inefficienza dei porti e della catena approvvigionamenti terranno alti i costi al consumo.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-11-25.

2021-11-25__ Unctad 001

La Conferenza delle Nazioni Unite sul Commercio e lo Sviluppo è il principale organo sussidiario permanente dell’Organizzazione delle Nazioni Unite operante nei settori del commercio, sviluppo, finanza, tecnologia, imprenditoria e sviluppo sostenibile.

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Lo United Nations Conference on Trade and Development ha rilasciato il Report High freight rates cast a shadow over economic recovery.

«High freight rates cast a shadow over economic recovery»

«UNCTAD warns that global consumer prices will rise significantly in the year ahead until shipping supply chain disruptions are unblocked and port constraints and terminal inefficiencies are tackled»

«The recovery of the global economy is threatened by high freight rates, which are likely to continue in the coming months»

«the current surge in container freight rates, if sustained, could increase global import price levels by 11% and consumer price levels by 1.5% between now and 2023»

«The current surge in freight rates will have a profound impact on trade and undermine socioeconomic recovery, especially in developing countries, until maritime shipping operations return to normal»

«Demand for goods surged in the second half of 2020 and into 2021, as consumers spent their money on goods rather than services»

«This large swing in containerized trade flows was met with supply-side capacity constraints, including container ship carrying capacity, container shortages, labour shortages, continued on and off COVID-19 restrictions across port regions and congestion at ports»

«For example, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) spot rate on the Shanghai-Europe route was less than $1,000 per TEU in June 2020, jumped to about $4,000 per TEU by the end of 2020, and rose to $7,395 by the end of July 2021»

«still encountered difficulties to ensure their containers were moved promptly»

«The impact of the high freight charges will be greater in small island developing states (SIDS), which could see import prices increase by 24% and consumer prices by 7.5%. In least developed countries (LDCs), consumer price levels could increase by 2.2%»

«Low-value-added items produced in smaller economies, in particular, could face serious erosion of their comparative advantages»

«a surge in container freight rates will add to production costs, which can raise consumer prices and slow national economies, particularly in SIDS and LDCs, where consumption and production highly depend on trade»

«The high rates will also impact on low-value-added items such as furniture, textiles, clothing and leather products, whose production is often fragmented across low-wage economies well away from major consumer markets …. predicts consumer price increases of 10.2% on these»

«The analysis further predicts a 9.4% increase in rubber and plastic products, a 7.5% increase for pharmaceutical products and electrical equipment, 6.9% for motor vehicles and 6.4% for machinery and equipment»

«A 10% increase in container freight rates, together with supply chain disruptions, is expected to decrease industrial production in the United States and the euro area by more than 1%»

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Il problema affrontato è molto complesso è si presterebbe a numerose considerazioni. Ne esporremo solo alcune, non necessariamente e più importanti.

In primo luogo, tutto il mondo è entrato in una fase di stagflazione. Languono le produzioni e l’inflazione erode il potere di acquisto. Sussistono vistose discrepanze locoregionali. Questa situazione ostacola grandemente anche i paesi che di per sé stessi non avrebbero avuto grossolani problemi. Inoltre, l’inflazione è fortemente contagiosa.

In secondo luogo, oscillazioni così veloci e di ampio valore ostacolano severamente le possibilità di pianificare produzione e commercializzazione. Tutti i pregressi canoni hanno perso valore. Diventa un vivere alla giornata, fatto questo incompatibile con un sano sistema economico.

In terzo luogo, le materie prime hanno evidenziato considerevoli incrementi dei prezzi, mettendo fuori mercato un gran numero di sistemi produttivi. La crisi dei trasporti amplifica i costi ed ostacola il timing dei rifornimenti.

In quarto luogo, i governi nazionali sembrerebbero essere del tutto impotenti a comprendere e governare queste situazioni.

In quinto luogo, le continue tensioni politiche e militari non concorrono sicuramente a rasserenare gli animi. Chiamando le cose con il loro nome, il rischio di un conflitto atomico è reale.

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In estrema sintesi, nessuno si illuda. Questa situazione continuerà peggiorando fino al collasso. Il problema è sicuramente economico, ma principalmente è politico

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High freight rates cast a shadow over economic recovery

UNCTAD warns that global consumer prices will rise significantly in the year ahead until shipping supply chain disruptions are unblocked and port constraints and terminal inefficiencies are tackled.

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Geneva, Switzerland, 18 November 2021

The recovery of the global economy is threatened by high freight rates, which are likely to continue in the coming months, according to UNCTAD’s Review of Maritime Transport 2021 published on 18 November.

UNCTAD’s analysis shows that the current surge in container freight rates, if sustained, could increase global import price levels by 11% and consumer price levels by 1.5% between now and 2023.

“The current surge in freight rates will have a profound impact on trade and undermine socioeconomic recovery, especially in developing countries, until maritime shipping operations return to normal,” said UNCTAD Secretary General Rebeca Grynspan.

“Returning to normal would entail investing in new solutions, including infrastructure, freight technology and digitalization, and trade facilitation measures,” she said.

                         What triggered the spike in freight rates and costs

Demand for goods surged in the second half of 2020 and into 2021, as consumers spent their money on goods rather than services during pandemic lockdowns and restrictions, according to the report. Working from home, online shopping and increased computers sales all placed unprecedented demand on supply chains.

This large swing in containerized trade flows was met with supply-side capacity constraints, including container ship carrying capacity, container shortages, labour shortages, continued on and off COVID-19 restrictions across port regions and congestion at ports.

This mismatch between surging demand and de facto reduced supply capacity then led to record container freight rates on practically all container trade routes.

For example, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) spot rate on the Shanghai-Europe route was less than $1,000 per TEU in June 2020, jumped to about $4,000 per TEU by the end of 2020, and rose to $7,395 by the end of July 2021. On top of this, cargo owners faced delays, surcharges and other costs, and still encountered difficulties to ensure their containers were moved promptly.

                         Everyone is affected, but not equally

The impact of the high freight charges will be greater in small island developing states (SIDS), which could see import prices increase by 24% and consumer prices by 7.5%. In least developed countries (LDCs), consumer price levels could increase by 2.2%.

Supply chains will be affected by higher maritime trade costs. Low-value-added items produced in smaller economies, in particular, could face serious erosion of their comparative advantages.

In addition, concerns abound that the sustained higher shipping costs will not only weigh on exports and imports but could also undermine a recovery in global manufacturing.

The report says sustained high rates are already affecting global supply chains, noting that Europe, for example, has been facing shortages of consumer goods imported from Asia such as home furnishings, bicycles, sports goods and toys.

According to the report, a surge in container freight rates will add to production costs, which can raise consumer prices and slow national economies, particularly in SIDS and LDCs, where consumption and production highly depend on trade.

The high rates will also impact on low-value-added items such as furniture, textiles, clothing and leather products, whose production is often fragmented across low-wage economies well away from major consumer markets; the UNCTAD predicts consumer price increases of 10.2% on these.

The analysis further predicts a 9.4% increase in rubber and plastic products, a 7.5% increase for pharmaceutical products and electrical equipment, 6.9% for motor vehicles and 6.4% for machinery and equipment.

The impact of the high freight rates will not be evenly spread, even within Europe, and will be generally greater in smaller economies.

It is suggested that prices would rise by 3.7% in Estonia and 3.9% in Lithuania, compared with 1.2% in the United States and 1.4% in China. This differential also reflects a greater “import openness”, the ratio of imports to GDP, which is typically higher in smaller economies.

Manufacturers in the United States rely mainly on industrial supplies from China and other East Asian economies, so continued cost pressures, disruption and delays in containerized shipping will hinder production, according to the report.

A 10% increase in container freight rates, together with supply chain disruptions, is expected to decrease industrial production in the United States and the euro area by more than 1%, while in China production is expected to decrease by 0.2%.

UNCTAD emphasizes that transport costs are also influenced by structural factors, including port infrastructure quality, the trade facilitation environment and shipping connectivity, and there is potential for significant improvements.

UNCTAD urges countries to consider a portfolio of measures that span hard and soft infrastructure and services. Improving the quality of port infrastructure would reduce world average maritime transport costs by 4.1%, while costs would be reduced by 3.7% by better trade facilitation measures and by 4.4% by improved liner shipping connectivity.

It calls on governments to monitor markets to ensure a fair, transparent and competitive commercial environment and recommends more data sharing and stronger collaboration between stakeholders in the maritime supply chain.

The report urges continued monitoring and analysis of trends to find ways of cutting costs, enhancing efficiency and smoothing delivery of maritime trade. It also emphasizes the need for smaller economies to diversify by graduating to higher-value-added products to be more resilient to external shocks.

In the medium to longer term, the maritime supply capacity will also be affected by the transition of the industry towards zero-carbon shipping. To ensure that the necessary investment in ships, ports and the provision of new fuels is not delayed, it will be important for investors to count on a predictable global regulatory framework.

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Surging shipping costs will drive up prices for some consumer products by 10%, new UN report finds.

– The rate for a single shipping container has skyrocketed over the last 18 months as the coronavirus pandemic disrupted supply chains and trade channels.

– That surge in container rates could send consumer prices 1.5% higher over the next year, according to a report from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

– The impact on consumer prices will vary by country and product, the report said.

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Beijing — The global surge in container shipping rates could send consumer prices 1.5% higher over the next year, according to a report from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

The rate for a single shipping container has skyrocketed over the last 18 months as the coronavirus pandemic disrupted supply chains and trade channels. Routes have seen costs rise by seven times, if not more.

“UNCTAD’s analysis shows that the current surge in container freight rates, if sustained, could increase global import price levels by 11% and consumer price levels by 1.5% between now and 2023,” the UN report said Thursday.

By country, the U.S. would see consumer prices rise by 1.2%, while China would see a 1.4% increase, the report said. The analysis found that smaller countries more dependent on imports would see consumer prices rise by a much higher 7.5%.

By product, electronics, furniture, and apparel would see the greatest price increases — of at least 10% globally — due to supply chain distribution, UNCTAD said, noting containers account for 17% of total seaborne trade volume.

Some companies have chosen to send smaller products by air as a result of the soaring cargo shipping costs, although air freight tends to be more expensive.

The container shipping cost surge would also drag down growth in major economies, the analysis said.

Industrial production, a major driver of growth, is set to fall by more than 1% in the U.S. and euro area, and drop by 0.2% in China, if container freight rates rise 10% and supply chains remain disrupted, the report said.

As of late October, more than 600 container ships were stuck outside ports worldwide, twice the level at the start of the year, Swiss logistics giant Kuehne+Nagel told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.” The company projected late last month that the congestion would last until at least February.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime, Unione Europea

Europa. In arrivo inverno rigido. Energetici rincarati. Buio, gelo, fame, inflazione.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-11-28.

2021-11-26__ Meteo 001

«Short-term power prices surged in Europe, hitting the second-highest level on record in Germany, as arctic air moved in bringing snow and sub-zero temperatures across the central-west region»

«Day-ahead power prices jumped in Germany, France and the Netherlands with temperatures falling as low as -6 degrees Celsius (21 degrees Fahrenheit) in eastern France»

«Snow is expected in the south and northeast of Germany»

«Colder weather is lifting demand just as the forecast for wind-power generation is set to plunge in France, Germany and the Netherlands»

«The cold snap is the first test of how energy systems already under strain will cope with higher consumption this winter»

«The forecast through early December shows colder-than-normal temperatures across western Europe»

«Wind generation and temperatures below the seasonal norm are increasing gas-for-power and heating demand; this provides bullish pressure to day-ahead contract»

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– In sintesi.

«wind-power generation is set to plunge in France, Germany and the Netherlands»

«Wind generation and temperatures below the seasonal norm are increasing gas-for-power and heating demand»

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Benissimo!

Buio, gelo, fame ed inflazione al 18.3% schiariscono le idee anche delle menti più coriacee.

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Power Prices Surge as Arctic Blast Brings Snow to Europe. – Bloomberg.

Bloomberg — Short-term power prices surged in Europe, hitting the second-highest level on record in Germany, as arctic air moved in bringing snow and sub-zero temperatures across the central-west region.

Day-ahead power prices jumped in Germany, France and the Netherlands with temperatures falling as low as -6 degrees Celsius (21 degrees Fahrenheit) in eastern France, according to state forecaster Meteo France. Snow is expected in the south and northeast of Germany, DWD said on twitter.

Colder weather is lifting demand just as the forecast for wind-power generation is set to plunge in France, Germany and the Netherlands. The cold snap is the first test of how energy systems already under strain will cope with higher consumption this winter. Restricted supplies of natural gas and low storage levels have led to a rally in prices that has caused chaos in energy markets across Europe.

The forecast through early December shows colder-than-normal temperatures across western Europe, according to Maxar Technologies LLC. Any mild air is focused in southeast Europe. The heating degree day outlook for the whole continent through December 7 is 215.3, above the 10-year normal of 190, according to a Maxar report.

“Wind generation and temperatures below the seasonal norm are increasing gas-for-power and heating demand; this provides bullish pressure to day-ahead contract,” Inspired Energy said in a report.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

USA. Richieste sussidi. Iniziali 199mila, continui 2,049mila.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-11-27.

2021-11-25__ USA Disoccupazione 001

Lo United States Department of Labor ha rilasciato il Report Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report.

La pubblicazione è avvenuta con un giorno di anticipo a causa del Thanksgiving holiday.

A nostro sommesso parere, queste variazioni sono statisticamente non significative, tenendo presente che in America vivono 332 milioni di persone.

In ogni caso, anche una testata dichiaratamente liberal come quella riportata, avanza seri dubbi.

«The number of people already collecting state jobless benefits, meanwhile, fell by 60,000 to 2.05 million»

«They don’t think the low level will last»

«[He] thinks claims will rebound to about 260,000»

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U.S. weekly jobless claims plunge to lowest level since 1969.

Jobless claims fall 71,000 to 199,000.

The numbers: New filings for jobless benefit plunged by 71,000 to 199,000 in the seven days ended Nov. 20, the U.S. government said Wednesday. The report was released one day early because of the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.

This is the lowest level of initial claims since November 1969.

Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had estimated initial jobless claims would total a seasonally adjusted 260,000.

Unemployment filings have been steadily moving toward pre-crisis lows, when they were in the low 200,000s. They totaled as much as 900,000 a week at the start of the year.

The number of people already collecting state jobless benefits, meanwhile, fell by 60,000 to 2.05 million. These so-called continuing claims are also at a pandemic low.

Big picture: A few economists were expecting a big drop in claims based on seasonal adjustment factors related to the Thanksgiving holiday. They don’t think the low level will last. Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, thinks claims will rebound to about 260,000.

What are they saying:  The level has moved below the 218,000 average seen in 2019, a “solidly positive” signal about the labor market, said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime

Germania. Oct21. Import Prices +21.7% anno su anno. Natural Gas +193.9%. Germania kaputt.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-11-27.

2021-11-27__ Germania prezzi import 001

                         In sintesi.

– Import prices +21.7% on the same month a year earlier

– Export princes +9.5% on the same month a year earlier

– In October 2021 energy imports were 141.0% more expensive than in October 2020

– natural gas with a plus of 193.9%

– crude oil with a plus of 105.9%

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Vedremo come il nuovo governo tedesco vorrà affrontare la situazione.

Sicuramente un rincaro del 193.9% del natural gas in un anno costituisce un esborso intollerabile da parte del sistema economico tedesco.

E l’inverno si preannuncerebbe essere rigido: buio, gelo e fame  sono ben grame compagnie.

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Destatis. Import prices in October 2021: +21.7% on October 2020

                         Pressrelease #536 from 26 November 2021

                         Import prices, October 2021

+3.8% on the previous month

+21.7% on the same month a year earlier

                         Export prices, October 2021

+1.4% on the previous month

+9.5% on the same month a year earlier

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Wiesbaden – As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the index of import prices increased by 21.7% in October 2021 compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. This has been the highest year-on-year change since January 1980 (+21.8%, on January 1979). In September 2021 and in August 2021 the annual rates of change were +17.7% and +16.5%, respectively. From September 2021 to October 2021 the index rose by 3.8%.

                         High price increase mainly caused by energy price development

In October 2021 energy imports were 141.0% more expensive than in October 2020. The largest influence on the year-on-year rate of energy price increase had natural gas with a plus of 193.9% as well as crude oil with a plus of 105.9%.

The index of import prices, excluding crude oil and mineral oil products, increased by 17.5% in October 2021 compared with October 2020 and in comparison with September 2021 it rose by 3.0%.

The index of export prices increased by 9.5% in October 2021 compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. This has been the highest year-on-year-change since January 1975 (+10.5% on January 1974). In September 2021 and in August 2021 the annual rates of change were +8.1% and +7.2%, respectively. From September 2021 to October 2021 the index rose by 1.4%.