Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Cina

Cina. Settembre21. Imports +17.6%, Exports +28.1%, Saldo +66.76 mld Usd.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-10-19.

2021-10-13__ Cina Import 001

Riportiamo questo astioso e livoroso articolo di Reuters, che cola bile incandescente come lava vulcanica. Odiano i cinesi quasi peggio di quanto odino i repubblicani.

Ma il lato davvero ridicolo è che nel furor scrittorio l’autore non aveva preventivamente letto gli ultimi accadimenti cinesi.

Cina. Silura ed affonda con scherno COP26. Costruirà nuove centrali a carbone e petrolio.

Non c’è nulla da dire: il liberal non hanno il senso dello humour.

* * * * * * *

«China posts robust September exports despite power crunch»

«China’s export growth unexpectedly accelerated in September, as still solid global demand offset some of the pressures on factories from power shortages, supply bottlenecks»

«Outbound shipments in September jumped 28.1% from a year earlier, up from a 25.6% gain in August. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast growth would ease to 21%»

«Exports have continued to outperform and accelerate, even after omitting the impact of base effects»

«China’s September imports rose 17.6%, lagging an expected 20% gain in a Reuters poll and 33.1% growth the previous month»

«The volume of coal imports in September rose to their highest this year as power plants scrambled for fuel to boost electricity generation to ease the power crunch and replenish inventories ahead of the winter heating season»

«Natural gas imports in September also rose to their highest since January this year»

«China posted a trade surplus of $66.76 billion in September, versus the poll’s forecast for a $46.8 billion surplus and $58.34 billion surplus in August»

* * * * * * *

Cerchiamo di ragionare, nei limiti del possibile e guardando soltanto i dati disponibili.

Se la Cina ha un export incrementato del 28.1%, ciò significa che ha prima prodotto i beni che poi ha esportato.

Quindi, la produzione industriale cinese è ben integra, anzi, sta crescendo, se no non avrebbe potuto esportare di più.

«unexpectedly»

Inatteso per i liberal, ma ben atteso da parte di chiunque ragioni senza paraocchi.

I media liberal si lagnano dell’alto costo del carbone, ma l’America non produce mentre anche la Cina sopporta gli alti prezzi e produce.

Se è vero che la rottura delle catene di approvvigionamento hanno gravato sulla la produzione americana, sarebbe altrettanto vero che anche la Cina ha lo stesso identico problema, ma continua a produrre ed ad esportare.

Se è vero che l’alto costo dei noli ha bloccato la produzione americana, sarebbe altrettanto vero che anche la Cina subisce quei costi, ma continua a produrre ed ad esportare.

Ricordiamo infine come la Cina abbia aumentato produzione ed export verso un mondo travagliato dalla stagflazione, segno questo di quanto le sue merci siano strategiche per gli acquirenti.

Sarebbe anche l’ora che i liberal la smettessero di cercare capri espiatori dei loro sempre più vistosi insuccessi.

* * * * * * *

China posts robust September exports despite power crunch.

Outbound shipments jump 28.1% from year earlier, up from 25.6% gain in August.

Beijing (Reuters) — China’s export growth unexpectedly accelerated in September, as still solid global demand offset some of the pressures on factories from power shortages, supply bottlenecks and a resurgence of domestic COVID-19 cases.

The world’s second-largest economy has staged an impressive rebound from the pandemic but there are signs the recovery is losing steam. Resilient exports could provide a buffer against growing headwinds including weakening factory activity, persistently soft consumption and a slowing property sector.

Outbound shipments in September jumped 28.1% from a year earlier, up from a 25.6% gain in August. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast growth would ease to 21%.

“Exports have continued to outperform and accelerate, even after omitting the impact of base effects,” said Erin Xin, Greater China economist at HSBC, adding that earlier shipments of holiday consumer products in light of global supply chain disruptions may be behind the continued strength in exports.

Other analysts said power rationing in September may not have affected exports yet, but could constrain production and inflate costs for Chinese manufacturers in the months to come.

Power shortages caused by a transition to clean energy, strong industrial demand and high commodity prices, have halted production at numerous factories including many supplying firms such as Apple and Tesla since late September.

Factories in eastern provinces of Guangdong and Zhejiang, both major export powerhouse, have been asked to stagger their production throughout the week, as many owners complain about the chaos the curbs have brought to work schedules.

Previously, factories could operate at night but now the ban is 24 hours on days of rationing, said King Lau, who helps manage a metal-coating factory in the export city of Dongguan. The factory was asked to stop using government electricity on three working days this week.

However, Louis Kuijs, head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics is optimistic the export outlook in the coming quarters remains solid, despite near-term headwinds.

“We generally expect these disruptions to ease over the coming months, as we expect senior policymakers to stress growth and to call for the pursuit of climate targets on a more measured timeline.”

“Further out, we think exports should be underpinned by the ongoing global economic recovery and a gradual easing of global supply-chain disruptions next year.”

Recent data has pointed to a slowdown in production activity. China’s manufacturing PMI unexpectedly shrank in September as industrial firms battled with rising costs and electricity rationing.

Furthermore, the property sector, a key driver of growth, is reeling from the increasing defaults of Chinese developers, with real estate sales tumbling and new construction starts slowing.

China’s September imports rose 17.6%, lagging an expected 20% gain in a Reuters poll and 33.1% growth the previous month.

“The breakdown showed a broad-based decline across all good types, though it was particularly pronounced for inbound shipments of semiconductors,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics.

“Lower import volumes of industrial metals add to evidence that environmental curbs and cooling construction activity are weighing on heavy industry.”

However, China’s energy demand is rapidly rising.

The volume of coal imports in September rose to their highest this year as power plants scrambled for fuel to boost electricity generation to ease the power crunch and replenish inventories ahead of the winter heating season.

Natural gas imports in September also rose to their highest since January this year.

China posted a trade surplus of $66.76 billion in September, versus the poll’s forecast for a $46.8 billion surplus and $58.34 billion surplus in August.

Many analysts are expecting the central bank to inject more stimulus by cutting the amount of cash banks must hold as reserves later this year to help small and medium-sized enterprises.

China’s trade surplus with the United States rose to $42 billion, Reuters calculations based on the customs data showed, up from $37.68 billion in August.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

Usa. Governo avvisa la popolazione che le bollette di gas e luce saliranno del 40%, almeno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-10-18.

Biden 001

Lo U.S. Energy Information Administration ha rilasciato un report a nome del Governo degli Stati Uniti in cui si avvisa la popolazione che, a seguito dei rincari delle materie prime, le bollette di gas e corrente elettrica saliranno di almeno il 40% rispetto lo scorso anno. E l’inverno si preannuncerebbe essere rigido. Non è una barzelletta.

* * * * * * *

«With prices surging worldwide for heating oil, natural gas and other fuels, the U.S. government said Wednesday it expects households to see their heating bills jump as much as 54% compared to last winter»

«Get ready to pay sharply higher bills for heating this winter, along with seemingly everything else»

«With prices surging worldwide for heating oil, natural gas and other fuels, the U.S. government said Wednesday it expects households to see their heating bills jump as much as 54% compared to last winter»

«Nearly half the homes in the U.S. use natural gas for heat, and they could pay an average $746 this winter, 30% more than a year ago»

«Those in the Midwest could get particularly pinched, with bills up an estimated 49%, and this could be the most expensive winter for natural-gas heated homes»

«The second-most used heating source for homes is electricity, making up 41% of the country, and those households could see a more modest 6% increase to $1,268»

«Homes using heating oil, which make up 4% of the country, could see a 43% increase — more than $500 — to $1,734»

«This winter is forecast to be slightly colder across the country than last year»

«If the winter ends up being even colder than forecast, heating bills could be higher than estimated, and vice-versa»

«The forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is the latest reminder of the higher inflation ripping across the global economy»

«The higher prices hit everyone, with pay raises for most workers so far failing to keep up with inflation. But they hurt low-income households in particular»

«To make ends meet, families are cutting deeply. Nearly 22% of Americans had to reduce or forego expenses for basic necessities, such as medicine or food, to pay an energy bill in at least one of the last 12 months»

«Natural gas in the United States, for example, has climbed to its highest price since 2014 and is up roughly 90% over the last year. The wholesale price of heating oil, meanwhile, has more than doubled in the last 12 months»

«In Europe, strong demand and limited supplies have sent natural gas prices up more than 350% this year»

«Heating oil prices, meanwhile, are tied closely to the price of crude oil, which has climbed more than 60% this year»

* * * * * * *

Beh: tutti si lamentavano che l’Amministrazione giacesse inerte come una megattera spiaggiata.

A quanti si lamenteranno a calde lacrime, l’Administration potrà sempre rispondere che li aveva preavvisati per tempo.

Questa è la unica risposta ben meditata della Harris-Biden Administration al problema della stagflazione: come si constata, è degna del Premio Nobel per la economia.

* * * * * * *


Winter heating bills set to jump as inflation hits home.

With prices surging worldwide for heating oil, natural gas and other fuels, the U.S. government said Wednesday it expects households to see their heating bills jump as much as 54% compared to last winter.

* * *

New York — Get ready to pay sharply higher bills for heating this winter, along with seemingly everything else.

With prices surging worldwide for heating oil, natural gas and other fuels, the U.S. government said Wednesday it expects households to see their heating bills jump as much as 54% compared to last winter.

Nearly half the homes in the U.S. use natural gas for heat, and they could pay an average $746 this winter, 30% more than a year ago. Those in the Midwest could get particularly pinched, with bills up an estimated 49%, and this could be the most expensive winter for natural-gas heated homes since 2008-2009.

The second-most used heating source for homes is electricity, making up 41% of the country, and those households could see a more modest 6% increase to $1,268. Homes using heating oil, which make up 4% of the country, could see a 43% increase — more than $500 — to $1,734. The sharpest increases are likely for homes that use propane, which account for 5% of U.S. households.

This winter is forecast to be slightly colder across the country than last year. That means people will likely be burning more fuel to keep warm, on top of paying more for each bit of it. If the winter ends up being even colder than forecast, heating bills could be higher than estimated, and vice-versa.

The forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is the latest reminder of the higher inflation ripping across the global economy. Earlier Wednesday, the government released a separate report showing that prices were 5.4% higher for U.S. consumers in September than a year ago. That matches the hottest inflation rate since 2008, as a reawakening economy and snarled supply chains push up prices for everything from cars to groceries.

The higher prices hit everyone, with pay raises for most workers so far failing to keep up with inflation. But they hurt low-income households in particular.

“After the beating that people have taken in the pandemic, it’s like: What’s next?” said Carol Hardison, chief executive officer at Crisis Assistance Ministry, which helps people in Charlotte, North Carolina, who are facing financial hardship.

She said households coming in for assistance recently have had unpaid bills that are roughly twice as big as they were before the pandemic. They’re contending with more expensive housing, higher medical bills and sometimes a reduction in their hours worked.

“It’s what we know about this pandemic: It’s hit the same people that were already struggling with wages not keeping up with the cost of living,” she said.

To make ends meet, families are cutting deeply. Nearly 22% of Americans had to reduce or forego expenses for basic necessities, such as medicine or food, to pay an energy bill in at least one of the last 12 months, according to a September survey by the U.S. Census Bureau.

“This is going to create significant hardship for people in the bottom third of the country,” said Mark Wolfe, executive director of the National Energy Assistance Directors’ Association. “You can tell them to cut back and try to turn down the heat at night, but many low-income families already do that. Energy was already unaffordable to them.”

Many of those families are just now getting through a hot summer where they faced high air-conditioning bills.

Congress apportions some money to energy assistance programs for low-income households, but directors of those programs are now watching their purchasing power shrink as fuel costs keep climbing, Wolfe said.

The biggest reason for this winter’s higher heating bills is the recent surge in prices for energy commodities after they dropped to multi-year lows in 2020. Demand has simply grown faster than production as the economy roars back to life following shutdowns caused by the coronavirus.

Natural gas in the United States, for example, has climbed to its highest price since 2014 and is up roughly 90% over the last year. The wholesale price of heating oil, meanwhile, has more than doubled in the last 12 months.

Another reason for the rise is how global the market for fuels has become. In Europe, strong demand and limited supplies have sent natural gas prices up more than 350% this year. That’s pushing some of the natural gas produced in the United States to head for ships bound for other countries, adding upward pressure on domestic prices as well.

The amount of natural gas in storage inventories is relatively low, according to Barclays analyst Amarpreet Singh. That means there’s less of a cushion heading into winter heating season.

Heating oil prices, meanwhile, are tied closely to the price of crude oil, which has climbed more than 60% this year. Homes affected by those increases are primarily in the Northeast, where the percentage of homes using heating oil has dropped to 18% from 27% over the past decade.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

Usa. Settembre21. CPI, Indice dei Prezzi al Consumo, +5.4%, CPI-W +5.9%, anno su anno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-10-17.

2021-10-14__ Usa CPI 001

                         In sintesi.

«Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 5.4 percent before seasonal adjustment»

«The indexes for food and shelter rose in September and together contributed more than half of the monthly all items seasonally adjusted increase»

«The all items index rose 5.4 percent for the 12 months ending September, compared to a 5.3-percent rise for the period ending August»

«The energy index rose 24.8 percent over the last 12 months, and the food index increased 4.6 percent over that period»

«The food at home index rose 4.5 percent over the past 12 months as all of the six major grocery store food group indexes increased over the period»

«The largest increase was the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs, which increased 10.5 percent as the index for beef rose 17.6 percent over the year»

«The index for limited service meals rose 6.7 percent over the last 12 months»

«The energy index rose 24.8 percent over the past 12 months as all the major energy component indexes increased»

«The index for electricity increased 5.2 percent and the index for natural gas rose 20.6 percent over the last 12 months»

«The index for used cars and trucks increased 24.4 percent over the span»

«The index for new vehicles rose 8.7 percent, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending September 1980»

«The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 5.9 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 269.086 (1982-84=100)»

* * * * * * *

Questo è il titolo del WSJ

Inflation Remained High in September

«Consumer-price index climbs 5.4% from a year earlier as strained supply chains keep pushing up prices»

* * *

Gli Stati Uniti sono entrati in stagflazione.

Un Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) così elevato non promette nulla di buono.

Stupisce l’inedia della Harris-Biden Administration e della Fed: forse, se pensassero un po’ di più a sanare il sistema economico farebbero cosa gradita ai Cittadini Contribuenti.

* * * * * * *


U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index – September 2021

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.3 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 5.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The indexes for food and shelter rose in September and together contributed more than half of the monthly all items seasonally adjusted increase. The index for food rose 0.9 percent, with the index for food at home increasing 1.2 percent. The energy index increased 1.3 percent, with the gasoline index rising 1.2 percent.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in September, after increasing 0.1 percent in August. Along with the index for shelter, the indexes for new vehicles, household furnishings and operations, and motor vehicle insurance also rose in September. The indexes for airline fares, apparel, and used cars and trucks all declined over the month. 

The all items index rose 5.4 percent for the 12 months ending September, compared to a 5.3-percent rise for the period ending August. The index for all items less food and energy rose 4.0 percent over the last 12 months, the same increase as the period ending August. The energy index rose 24.8 percent over the last 12 months, and the food index increased 4.6 percent over that period.

                         Food

The food index increased 0.9 percent in September, following a smaller 0.4-percent increase in August. The food at home index increased 1.2 percent over the month as all six major grocery store food group indexes rose. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs rose 2.2 percent over the month as the index for beef rose 4.8 percent. The index for other food at home increased 1.1 percent in September after rising 0.6 percent in August. The index for nonalcoholic beverages increased 1.2 percent in September, its fourth consecutive monthly increase. The index for fruits and vegetables rose 0.6 percent in September, a larger increase than the 0.2-percent increase reported in August. The index for cereals and bakery products increased 1.1 percent over the month, while the index for dairy and related products rose 0.7 percent.

The food away from home index rose 0.5 percent in September after increasing 0.4 percent in August. The indexes for limited service meals and for full service meals both increased 0.6 percent in September. These increases offset a decline in the index for food at employee sites and schools, which continued to fall, decreasing 6.4 percent in September.

The food at home index rose 4.5 percent over the past 12 months as all of the six major grocery store food group indexes increased over the period. The largest increase was the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs, which increased 10.5 percent as the index for beef rose 17.6 percent over the year. The smallest increase was the dairy and related products index, which rose 0.6 percent over the last 12 months. The index for food away from home rose 4.7 percent over the last year. The index for limited service meals rose 6.7 percent over the last 12 months, and the index for full service meals rose 5.2 percent, while the index for food at employee sites and schools declined sharply. 

                         Energy

The energy index rose 1.3 percent in September, its fourth consecutive monthly increase. The gasoline index rose 1.2 percent in September after increasing 2.8 percent in August. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices rose 0.3 percent in September.) The electricity index increased 0.8 percent in September following a 1.0-percent increase the prior month. The index for natural gas also increased in September, rising 2.7 percent; this was its eighth consecutive monthly increase. 

The energy index rose 24.8 percent over the past 12 months as all the major energy component indexes increased. The gasoline index rose 42.1 percent over the last year. The index for electricity increased 5.2 percent and the index for natural gas rose 20.6 percent over the last 12 months.

                         All items less food and energy

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in September. The shelter index increased over the month, rising 0.4 percent. The index for rent rose 0.5 percent in September, while the index for owners’ equivalent rent rose 0.4 percent over the month. Other indexes that increased over the month include the index for new vehicles, which rose 1.3 percent following a 1.2-percent increase the previous month; and the index for household furnishings and operations, which increased 1.0 percent in September as the indexes for furniture and bedding and for appliances rose.

The motor vehicle insurance index rose 2.1 percent in September, after falling 2.8 percent in August. The index for communication and the index for education both increased 0.4 percent over the month. The recreation index rose 0.2 percent in September after increasing 0.5 percent the prior month.

In contrast to these increases, several indexes declined in September. The index for airline fares continued to fall sharply, decreasing 6.4 percent over the month after falling 9.1 percent in August. The apparel index also decreased in September, declining 1.1 percent over the month after rising 0.4 percent in the previous month. The index for used cars and trucks fell 0.7 percent this month, continuing to decline after it decreased 1.5 percent in August.

The medical care index was unchanged in September, with its component indexes mixed. The index for prescription drugs rose 0.8 percent over the month and the index for hospital services increased 0.1 percent. In contrast, the physicians’ services index declined 0.3 percent in September.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 4.0 percent over the past 12 months. The index for used cars and trucks increased 24.4 percent over the span. The index for new vehicles rose 8.7 percent, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending September 1980. The shelter index increased 3.2 percent over the last 12 months, and the household furnishings and operations index rose 5.1 percent. The index for medical care rose 0.4 percent over the last year, with the index for physicians’ services rising 3.8 percent and the index for hospital services increasing 3.2 percent. The prescription drugs index fell 1.6 percent, one of the few indexes to show a 12-month decline.

                         Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 5.4 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 274.310 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.3 percent prior to seasonal adjustment. 

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 5.9 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 269.086 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index rose 0.3 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime

Blocco Europeo. Record wholesale prices hanno indotto la stagflazione. – Financial Times.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-10-17.

2021-10-07__ FT 001

Il wholesale price del natural gas nel Blocco Europeo sale giorno dopo giorno, gravato da una congerie di tasse e balzelli volti a finanziare le energie rinnovabili prossime venture.

Però, nell’attesa che il sol dell’avvenire splenda radioso nel 2050, cioè quando tutti noi saremo morti, il pressante problema attuale è come pagare ora una risorsa naturale che alimenta buona parte delle nostre centrali elettriche.

«Dutch and British wholesale gas prices surged to record highs in several contracts on Tuesday afternoon amid wider energy market price hikes, ongoing supply concerns, colder weather forecasts and a cut in French nuclear generation due to a strike.

The November gas price at the Dutch TTF hub, a European benchmark, traded at a record 120.80, euros/euros per megawatt climbing more than 26% from Monday’s close.» [Reuters]

* * * * * * *

«Gas crunch hits government bond markets as energy prices surge»

«UK gilt yields at highest since May 2019 with natural gas prices above equivalent of $200 a barrel of oil»

«European natural gas prices shot to unprecedented heights on Tuesday, dragging down bond markets, particularly in the UK, in a sign that investors are anticipating wider economic damage»

«European gas contracts for delivery in November jumped by 23 per cent to €117.50 a megawatt hour, up from just €18 six months ago on the prospect of supply shortages over the winter months. UK prices also soared, breaching £3 a therm for the first time, with prices tripling in just the past two months»

«→→ The latest price gains mean gas in the UK and Europe is now trading at more than $200 a barrel of oil equivalent or almost three times the price of crude, with inflationary effects threatening to ripple through economies reliant on gas for heating and power generation ←←»

«Government debt in the eurozone and the US also weakened, with 10-year US Treasury yields climbing close to last week’s three-month high, as investors become increasingly concerned about inflation»

«→→ The rise is so dramatic that it’s feeding these concerns about stagflation ←←»

«But investors have questioned whether central banks can curb inflation driven by tight supplies in energy markets»

«Russia, the largest supplier of natural gas to Europe, has also restricted pipeline exports to long-term contracts only, despite clear signs traders want more spot market sales to help fill storage facilities»

«→→ Russian president Vladimir Putin on Tuesday described the situation in Europe as one of “hysteria and confusion”, blaming tight supplies on under-investment in fossil fuels as economies try to pivot towards renewable energy ←←»

«Surging energy prices are also putting pressure on governments and policymakers in Europe»

«Ursula von der Leyen, head of the European Commission, said on Tuesday that Brussels would explore setting up common strategic storage facilities for gas, warning about Europe’s heavy dependence on Russia for imports»

«Record wholesale prices have also led to the collapse of 10 retail energy providers in the UK since the start of August»

«The cost of supplying the average household in the UK with gas and electricity for a year has soared to more than £1,800, far above the £1,277 price cap»

* * * * * * *

La stagflazione è adesso di casa nel blocco europeo e ci rimarrà fino a tanto che l’attuale eurodirigenza non scompaia.

A quel punto, i sopravissuti potranno cercare di ricostruire qualcosa, sempre che il blocco europeo esista ancora.

* * * * * * *


Gas crunch hits government bond markets as energy prices surge

UK gilt yields at highest since May 2019 with natural gas prices above equivalent of $200 a barrel of oil.

European natural gas prices shot to unprecedented heights on Tuesday, dragging down bond markets, particularly in the UK, in a sign that investors are anticipating wider economic damage.

European gas contracts for delivery in November jumped by 23 per cent to €117.50 a megawatt hour, up from just €18 six months ago on the prospect of supply shortages over the winter months. UK prices also soared, breaching £3 a therm for the first time, with prices tripling in just the past two months.

The latest price gains mean gas in the UK and Europe is now trading at more than $200 a barrel of oil equivalent or almost three times the price of crude, with inflationary effects threatening to ripple through economies reliant on gas for heating and power generation. Traders are now pricing in a peak in the UK consumer price inflation rate at nearly 6 per cent in April next year.

Tuesday’s gas price surge added fuel to a recent drop in bond prices, particularly in the UK where concerns about rising prices have been felt most acutely. UK 10-year government bond yields surged to 1.09 per cent, the highest since May 2019.

Government debt in the eurozone and the US also weakened, with 10-year US Treasury yields climbing close to last week’s three-month high, as investors become increasingly concerned about inflation.

“Bond markets are trading off gas prices,” said Mike Riddell, a portfolio manager at Allianz Global Investors. “The rise is so dramatic that it’s feeding these concerns about stagflation.”

Longer-term inflation expectations have also shifted higher, extending a gilt sell-off that began last month when the Bank of England indicated it could raise interest rates as soon as this year.

But investors have questioned whether central banks can curb inflation driven by tight supplies in energy markets, which have rippled out from Europe to the wider world. The largest economies in Asia are also increasingly feeling the hit of record prices, including in coal markets, with both China and India experiencing short supplies.

The tightness in energy markets stems, in part, from the rapid rebound in economic activity and energy demand from the depths of the pandemic. But gas demand has also risen in Asia, where governments are trying to reduce reliance on highly polluting coal. Europe’s domestic production has also fallen.

Russia, the largest supplier of natural gas to Europe, has also restricted pipeline exports to long-term contracts only, despite clear signs traders want more spot market sales to help fill storage facilities.

Russian president Vladimir Putin on Tuesday described the situation in Europe as one of “hysteria and confusion”, blaming tight supplies on under-investment in fossil fuels as economies try to pivot towards renewable energy.

Ukraine and other eastern European countries have accused the Kremlin of attempting to “weaponise” natural gas supplies to try secure quick approval to start up the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and as part of a backlash against the push towards renewable energy.

Nord Stream 2 will carry Russian natural gas to Germany through the Baltic Sea, bypassing Ukraine, and was targeted by US sanctions until a deal between Angela Merkel and President Joe Biden earlier this year.

Surging energy prices are also putting pressure on governments and policymakers in Europe. Ursula von der Leyen, head of the European Commission, said on Tuesday that Brussels would explore setting up common strategic storage facilities for gas, warning about Europe’s heavy dependence on Russia for imports, while praising Norway for taking steps to increase gas production.

“We are very grateful Norway is stepping up but this does not seem to be the case for Russia,” von der Leyen said. Brussels is under pressure to act in the face of record natural gas prices that have forced governments in Spain, Italy, France and Greece to agree subsidies to protect households from higher costs.

Record wholesale prices have also led to the collapse of 10 retail energy providers in the UK since the start of August, requiring millions of customers to be transferred to other companies.

The cost of supplying the average household in the UK with gas and electricity for a year has soared to more than £1,800, far above the £1,277 price cap.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

Usa. Sept21. PPI, Indice dei Prezzi di Produzione +8.6% anno su anno. Mai così alto dal 1975.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-10-16.

2021-10-15__ Usa PPI 001

Questo è l’aumento dell’inflazione più alto dal 1975.

«On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index rose 8.6 percent for the 12 months ended in September, the largest advance since 12-month data were first calculated in November 2010»

«For the 12 months ended in September, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 5.9 percent.»

«In September, 40 percent of the broad-based advance can be attributed to a 2.8-percent jump in prices for final demand energy»

«Leading the advance in the index for final demand goods, prices for gasoline rose 3.9 percent»

«→→ Over two-thirds of the September increase in prices for final demand services can be traced to margins for fuels and lubricants retailing, which rose 11.6 percent ←←»

«→→ For the 12 months ended in September, prices for processed goods for intermediate demand advanced 23.9 percent, the largest 12-month increase since jumping 26.3 percent in January 1975 ←←»

«One-fifth of the September increase in the index for processed goods for intermediate demand can be attributed to a 9.8-percent rise in prices for primary basic organic chemicals»

« For the 12 months ended in September, prices for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand jumped 45.9 percent.»

«A major factor in the September increase in prices for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand was the index for natural gas, which advanced 14.4 percent»

«For the 12 months ended in September, prices for stage 3 intermediate demand advanced 20.2 percent»

«For the 12 months ended in September, the index for stage 2 intermediate demand increased 22.7 percent»

«For the 12 months ended in September, prices for stage 1intermediate demand increased 19.9 percent.»

2021-10-15__ Usa PPI 002

* * * * * * *

Il PPI, Producer Price Index, Indice dei Prezzi di Produzione, evidenzia una crescita dell”8.6% anno su anno.

È il valore più alto dal gennaio 1975.

Gli aumenti dei costi alla produzione si riverbereranno nel tempo come aumenti dei prezzi al consumo.

L’inflazione c’è, non è transitoria, e ce la terremo assieme alla stasi della produzione industriale: in altri termini, gli Usa sono in stagflazione.

* * * * * * *


Bureau of Labor Statistics. Producer Price Indexes – September 2021

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.5 percent in September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.7 percent in August and 1.0 percent in July. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index rose 8.6 percent for the 12 months ended in September, the largest advance since 12-month data were first calculated in November 2010.

Nearly 80 percent of the September increase in the index for final demand can be traced to a 1.3-percent rise in prices for final demand goods. The index for final demand services moved up 0.2 percent. Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.1 percent in September after increasing 0.3 percent in August. For the 12 months ended in September, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 5.9 percent.

                         Final Demand

Final demand goods: The index for final demand goods moved up 1.3 percent in September, the largest increase since a 1.5-percent rise in May. In September, 40 percent of the broad-based advance can be attributed to a 2.8-percent jump in prices for final demand energy. The indexes for final demand goods less foods and energy and for final demand foods also moved up, 0.6 percent and 2.0 percent, respectively.

Product detail: Leading the advance in the index for final demand goods, prices for gasoline rose 3.9 percent. The indexes for beef and veal, residential electric power, fresh and dry vegetables, gas fuels, and primary basic organic chemicals also moved higher. In contrast, prices for plastic resins and materials decreased 3.9 percent. The indexes for corn and for residual fuels also fell. (See table 4.)

Final demand services: Prices for final demand services moved up 0.2 percent in September, the ninth consecutive advance. Leading the increase in September, the index for final demand trade services rose 0.9 percent. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) Prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing advanced 0.2 percent. Conversely, the index for final demand transportation and warehousing services fell 4.0 percent.

Product detail: Over two-thirds of the September increase in prices for final demand services can be traced to margins for fuels and lubricants retailing, which rose 11.6 percent. The indexes for machinery and equipment wholesaling, hospital inpatient care, automobiles and automobile parts retailing, portfolio management, and truck transportation of freight also moved up. In contrast, prices for airline passenger services fell 16.9 percent. The indexes for health, beauty, and optical goods retailing and for bundled wired telecommunications access services also declined.

                         Intermediate Demand by Commodity Type

Within intermediate demand in September, prices for processed goods moved up 1.3 percent, the index for unprocessed goods increased 2.4 percent, and prices for services rose 0.5 percent. (See tables B and C.) Processed goods for intermediate demand: The index for processed goods for intermediate demand advanced 1.3 percent in September after climbing 1.0 percent in August. Sixty percent of the broad-based September increase can be traced to prices for processed materials less foods and energy, which moved up 1.1 percent. The indexes for processed energy goods and for processed foods and feeds rose 2.0 percent and 1.9 percent, respectively. For the 12 months ended in September, prices for processed goods for intermediate demand advanced 23.9 percent, the largest 12-month increase since jumping 26.3 percent in January 1975.

Product detail: One-fifth of the September increase in the index for processed goods for intermediate demand can be attributed to a 9.8-percent rise in prices for primary basic organic chemicals. The indexes for hot rolled steel sheet and strip, diesel fuel, fabricated structural metal products, gasoline, and beef and veal also moved higher. Conversely, prices for softwood veneer and plywood dropped 44.9 percent. The indexes for residual fuels and for pork also decreased. (See table 5.)

Unprocessed goods for intermediate demand: Prices for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand moved up 2.4 percent in September, the largest advance since rising 2.7 percent in June. Leading the September increase, the index for unprocessed energy materials climbed 8.5 percent. Prices for unprocessed foodstuffs and feedstuffs edged up 0.1 percent. In contrast, the index for unprocessed nonfood materials less energy declined 3.5 percent. For the 12 months ended in September, prices for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand jumped 45.9 percent.

Product detail: A major factor in the September increase in prices for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand was the index for natural gas, which advanced 14.4 percent. Prices for crude petroleum, slaughter poultry, slaughter barrows and gilts, slaughter steers and heifers, and aluminum base scrap also rose. Conversely, the index for carbon steel scrap fell 4.1 percent. Prices for corn and for raw milk also decreased.

Services for intermediate demand: The index for services for intermediate demand rose 0.5 percent in September, the tenth consecutive advance. In September, 40 percent of the broad-based increase can be traced to prices for services less trade, transportation, and warehousing for intermediate demand, which moved up 0.2 percent. Margins for trade services for intermediate demand and the index for transportation and warehousing services for intermediate demand also advanced, 0.6 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively. For the 12 months ended in September, prices for services for intermediate demand rose 8.0 percent.

Product detail: A 4.9-percent increase in the index for business loans (partial) was a major factor in the September rise in prices for services for intermediate demand. The indexes for arrangement of freight and cargo transportation; machinery and equipment parts and supplies wholesaling; courier, messenger, and U.S. postal services; food wholesaling; and building materials, paint, and hardware wholesaling also moved higher. In contrast, prices for airline passenger services fell 16.9 percent. The indexes for metals, minerals, and ores wholesaling and for internet advertising sales (excluding print publishers) also declined.

                         Intermediate Demand by Production Flow

Stage 4 intermediate demand: Prices for stage 4 intermediate demand rose 0.4 percent in September following a 0.8-percent increase in August. In September, the index for total goods inputs to stage 4 intermediate demand climbed 0.5 percent, and prices for total services inputs moved up 0.4 percent. (See table D.) Advances in the indexes for fabricated structural metal products; machinery and equipment parts and supplies wholesaling; courier, messenger, and U.S. postal services; hot rolled steel sheet and strip; beef and veal; and portfolio management outweighed declines in the indexes for airline passenger services; corn; and metals, minerals, and ores wholesaling. (See table 6.) For the 12 months ended in September, prices for stage 4 intermediate demand rose 11.6 percent.

Stage 3 intermediate demand: Prices for stage 3 intermediate demand advanced 1.0 percent in September, the same as in August. In September, the index for total goods inputs to stage 3 intermediate demand rose 1.2 percent, and prices for total services inputs moved up 0.8 percent. Increases in the indexes for primary basic organic chemicals; slaughter poultry; hot rolled steel sheet and strip; arrangement of freight and cargo transportation; courier, messenger, and U.S. postal services; and slaughter barrows and gilts outweighed decreases in the indexes for corn; raw milk; and metals, minerals, and ores wholesaling. For the 12 months ended in September, prices for stage 3 intermediate demand advanced 20.2 percent.

Stage 2 intermediate demand: Prices for stage 2 intermediate demand rose 2.5 percent in September, the sixth consecutive increase. In September, the index for total goods inputs to stage 2 intermediate demand jumped 4.0 percent, and prices for total services inputs climbed 1.1 percent. Advances in the indexes for gas fuels, crude petroleum, arrangement of freight and cargo transportation, business loans (partial), primary basic organic chemicals, and fuels and lubricants retailing outweighed falling prices for airline passenger services, carbon steel scrap, and oilseeds. For the 12 months ended in September, the index for stage 2 intermediate demand increased 22.7 percent.

Stage 1 intermediate demand: Prices for stage 1 intermediate demand moved up 0.2 percent in September following a 0.9-percent increase in August. In September, the index for total goods inputs to stage 1 intermediate demand rose 0.9 percent. Conversely, prices for total services inputs fell 0.5 percent. Advances in the indexes for primary basic organic chemicals; hot rolled steel sheet and strip; diesel fuel; fabricated structural metal products; building materials, paint, and hardware wholesaling; and courier, messenger, and U.S. postal services outweighed declines in the indexes for airline passenger services; corn; and hardware, building materials, and supplies retailing. For the 12 months ended in September, prices for stage 1intermediate demand increased 19.9 percent.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

Usa. Richieste Sussidi. Iniziali 293,000, Continui 2,593,000. Invariate.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-10-15.

2021-10-14__ Initial Jobless Claims 001

I numeri sono questi, poi ciascuno li commenta a piacer suo.

Da un punto di vista statistico, “a decline of 36,000 from the previous week” e “fell by 134,000” sono variazioni entro l’errore di campionamento.

Poi, per una nazione di 330,000 milioni di abitanti, sono variazioni infinitesimali.

* * * * * * *


Jobless claims fall below 300,000 for the first time since the pandemic began

– Jobless claims totaled 293,000 for the week ended Oct. 9, below the 318,000 estimate.

– That was the first time initial claims dropped below 300,000 since the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic.

– Continuing claims fell by 134,000 to 2.59 million.

* * *

Initial jobless claims fell below 300,000 for the first time since the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic, the Labor Department said Thursday.

In another sign the jobs market is getting closer to its old self, first-time claims for unemployment insurance totaled 293,000, the best level since March 14, 2020, which saw 256,000 claims just as the Covid-19 spread intensified.

The Dow Jones estimate for claims was 318,000. Last week’s total represented a decline of 36,000 from the previous week.

The four-week moving average, which helps smooth out weekly volatility, dropped to 334,250, a 10,500 decline that also marked the lowest number since March 14, 2020.

Also, continuing claims, which run a week behind the headline number, fell by 134,000 to 2.59 million, another pandemic-era low. ….

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo

Germania. Settembre21. CPI, consumer price index, 4.1%. Inflazione che cresce. – Destatis.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-10-15.

Destatis__001

«The inflation rate in Germany, measured as the year-on-year change in the consumer price index (CPI), stood at +4.1% in September 2021»

«Marked price increases at upstream stages in the economic process. So far, only some of these price increases have had a moderate impact on the consumer price index»

«Substantial increase in energy prices of 14.3% compared with a year earlier»

«The prices of goods (total) increased by 6.1% between September 2020 and September 2021»

«Especially the increase in energy product prices (+14.3%) was markedly higher than overall inflation»

«Especially the CO2 charge introduced at the beginning of the year had an upward effect on the rate of price increase regarding energy products»

«Marked price increases were recorded for heating oil (+76,5%) and motor fuels (+28.4%)»

«Prices were markedly up on September 2020 for vegetables (+9.2%) as well as dairy products and eggs (+5.5%)»

* * * * * * *


Destatis. Inflation rate at +4.1% in September 2021

                         Pressrelease #482 from 13 October 2021

                         Consumer price index, September 2021

4.1% on the same month a year earlier (provisional result confirmed)

+0.0% on the previous month (provisional result confirmed)

                         Harmonised index of consumer prices, September 2021

+4.1% on the same month a year earlier (provisional result confirmed)

+0.3% on the previous month (provisional result confirmed)

* * * * * * *

Wiesbaden − The inflation rate in Germany, measured as the year-on-year change in the consumer price index (CPI), stood at +4.1% in September 2021. In July and August 2021 it had been just under 4%. A higher inflation rate was last measured in December 1993 (+4.3%). The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that consumer prices remained unchanged compared with August 2021 though.

                         Temporary special effects continuing to have an upward effect on the inflation rate

There are various reasons for the high inflation rate, which include base effects due to the low prices in 2020. Especially the temporary value added tax reduction in the second half of 2020 and the sharp decline in mineral oil product prices a year ago had an upward effect on the overall inflation rate. Additional factors were crisis-related effects such as marked price increases at upstream stages in the economic process. So far, only some of these price increases have had a moderate impact on the consumer price index.

                         Substantial increase in energy prices of 14.3% compared with a year earlier

The prices of goods (total) increased by 6.1% between September 2020 and September 2021, which was above average. Especially the increase in energy product prices (+14.3%) was markedly higher than overall inflation. “The relevant rate of price increase was up for the third month in a row. This was basically due to base effects as we compare current prices with the very low prices of the previous year. Especially the CO2 charge introduced at the beginning of the year had an upward effect on the rate of price increase regarding energy products”, said Christoph-Martin Mai, Head of the Consumer Prices Section at the Federal Statistical Office. Marked price increases were recorded for heating oil (+76,5%) and motor fuels (+28.4%). The prices of natural gas (+5.7%) and electricity (+2.0%) rose, too.

                         Above-average 4.9% increase in food prices compared with a year earlier

Above-average year-on-year price increases were recorded in September 2021 not only for energy products but also for food (+4.9%). Prices were markedly up on September 2020 for vegetables (+9.2%) as well as dairy products and eggs (+5.5%). In addition to non-durable consumer goods, consumer durables such as transport equipment (+6.4%) and furniture and lighting equipment (+4.4%) saw significant price increases.

                         Inflation rate excluding energy at +3.1%

The year-on-year increases in energy product prices and food prices had a clear upward effect on the inflation rate. Excluding energy product prices, the inflation rate would have been +3.1% in September 2021; excluding the prices of both product groups, it would have been +2.9%.

                         Service prices up 2.5% year on year

The prices of services (total) increased by 2.5% in September 2021 compared with the same month a year earlier. Net rents exclusive of heating expenses, which are important as they account for a large part of household final consumption expenditure, rose by 1.4%. Larger price increases were observed, among other things, for maintenance and repair of vehicles (+5.4%), services of social facilities (+5.0%) and for catering services in restaurants, cafés and the like (+3.6%).

                         On the whole, stable prices compared with the previous month

Compared with August 2021, the consumer price index remained stable in September 2021. The prices of food (total), too, remained unchanged. Prices of energy products (total) rose 0.7% on the previous month, which included marked price increases for heating oil (+4.4%). The prices of clothing and footwear were up, too (+3.8%), which was mainly due to the changeover to the autumn/winter collection. Due to seasonal factors, package holiday prices fell markedly (-9.2%) towards the end of the summer holidays.

                         Methodological note:

The situation of price collection caused by the corona crisis was relaxed again in September 2021. For information on the consequences of the lockdown for price collection please refer to our methodological paper on the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on price collection. The quality of the results of consumer price statistics remains unaffected.

For more background information and analyses regarding the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic for price development please refer to our “StatGespräch” podcast on inflation (in German). Here we shed light on the role of base effects and the future of price collection.

The coronavirus pandemic, the associated restrictions on public life and the resulting consequences required a changed approach to the annual updating of the product weights used in the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP). A methodological paper which discusses this issue is provided on the webpage of the Federal Statistical Office. The updating of the HICP product weights explains a considerable part of the difference between the CPI and the HICP for Germany.

The consumer price index results are also available on the Corona Statistics webpage of the Federal Statistical Office together with other indicators which can be used to assess the economic consequences of the coronavirus pandemic.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo

Germania. Settembre21. WPI, Indice dei prezzi all’ingrosso +13.2%. – Destatis.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-10-14.

2021-10-14__ Germania Wholesales 001

L’indice dei prezzi all’ingrosso (Wholesale Price Index, WPI) misura il cambiamento nel prezzo dei beni venduti dai grossisti ad altri grossisti.

È un ottimo indicatore del processo inflattivo, perché le variazioni si ripercuotono immancabilmente sui costi al consumo.

* * * * * * *

Ricordiamo come in Germania il PPI, Core Producer Price Index, valga 12.0%

Il PPI è un indicatore inflazionistico che misura il cambiamento medio dei prezzi di vendita praticati dai produttori nazionali di beni e servizi.

Il PPI misura il cambiamento del prezzo dal punto di vista del Venditore.

Il PPI considera tre aree di produzione: basate sull’industria, basate sulle materie prime e fase di lavorazione.

* * * * * * *


Destatis. Wholesale prices in September 2021: +13.2% on September 2020

Pressrelease #479 from 12 October 2021

Wholesale selling prices, September 2021

+0.8% on the previous month

+13.2% on the same month a year earlier

* * * * * * *

WIESBADEN – In September 2021 the selling prices in wholesale trade rose by 13.2% compared with September 2020. This was the highest monthly annual rate of change since June 1974 after the first oil crisis (+13.3% compared with June 1973). In August 2021 and in July 2021 the annual rates of change had been +12.3% and +11.3%, respectively.

From August 2021 to September 2021 the index rose by 0.8%.

The high rates of change for wholesale prices in annual comparison derive from increased prices for raw materials and intermediate products, as well as a base effect due to last years very low price levels in the context of the corona crisis.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

Usa. Agosto21. Rapporto Jolt. – U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-10-14.

2021-10-14__ Jolt 001

«What is JOLTS?

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. The program involves the monthly collection, processing, and dissemination of job openings and labor turnover data. The data, collected from sampled establishments on a voluntary basis, include employment, job openings, hires, quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations.

The number of unfilled jobs—used to calculate the job openings rate—is an important measure of the unmet demand for labor. With that statistic, it is possible to paint a more complete picture of the U.S. labor market than by looking solely at the unemployment rate, a measure of the excess supply of labor.

Information on labor turnover is valuable in the proper analysis and interpretation of labor market developments and as a complement to the unemployment rate.» [U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics]

Attenzione!. Mentre il numero dei disoccupati, degli impiegati o dei riceventi sussidi sono macrodati statici, relativi al momento del rilevamento, i dati Jolt ne esaminano la struttura dinamica.

* * * * * * *

«The number of job openings declined to 10.4 million on the last business day of August following a series high in July»

«Hires decreased to 6.3 million while total separations were little changed at 6.0 million»

«On the last business day of August, the number and rate of job openings decreased to 10.4 million (-659,000) and 6.6 percent, respectively»

«Job openings increased in federal government (+22,000). The number of job openings decreased in the Northeast and Midwest regions»

«In August, the number and rate of hires decreased to 6.3 million (-439,000) and 4.3 percent, respectively»

«Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee»

«In August, the number and rate of total separations were little changed at 6.0 million and 4.1 percent, respectively»

«The number of quits increased in August to 4.3 million (+242,000)»

«The number of quits increased in August to 4.3 million (+242,000). The quits rate increased to a series high of 2.9 percent»

«Large numbers of hires and separations occur every month throughout the business cycle. Net employment change results from the relationship between hires and separations»

«Over the 12 months ending in August 2021, hires totaled 72.6 million and separations totaled 66.7 million, yielding a net employment gain of 5.9 million»

«In August, the job openings rate decreased in medium establishments with 50-249 employees. The hires rate decreased in large establishments with 250-999 employees»

* * * * * * *

I posti vacanti sono 10.4 milioni.

Il tasso di abbandono, o il numero di abbandoni nel mese come percentuale dell’occupazione totale, è aumentato fino a un record del 2,9%.

Il livello ancora elevato di aperture indica una persistente discrepanza tra l’offerta e la domanda di lavoro nell’economia: La partecipazione della forza lavoro rimane depressa.

La partecipazione alla forza lavoro è rimasta ostinatamente bassa intorno allo stesso livello per mesi. Infatti, la partecipazione è diminuita a settembre perché meno persone hanno cercato lavoro.

Per ogni americano disoccupato in agosto, c’erano 1,2 posti scoperti.

Il totale delle assunzioni è sceso in agosto a 6,3 milioni.

Le cifre del JOLTS seguono i dati mensili del governo sui posti di lavoro, nonfarm payrolls. Quel rapporto, uscito la scorsa settimana, ha mostrato che le buste paga sono aumentate solo di 194.000 unità a settembre.

* * *

Il sistema produttivo americano è bloccato, pur mostrando una sua propria dinamica interna.

Non stupisce che in questo periodo di stagflazione la produzione abbia 10.4 milioni di posti vacanti contro una cifra ancor più superiore di persone che percepiscono benefici pubblici.

* * * * * * *

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Agust21.  Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey News Release.

The number of job openings declined to 10.4 million on the last business day of August following a series high in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires decreased to 6.3 million while total separations were little changed at 6.0 million. Within separations, the quits rate increased to a series high of 2.9 percent while the layoffs and discharges rate was little changed at 0.9 percent. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the total nonfarm sector, by industry, by four geographic regions, and by establishment size class.

                         Job Openings

On the last business day of August, the number and rate of job openings decreased to 10.4 million (-659,000) and 6.6 percent, respectively. Job openings decreased in several industries with the largest decreases in health care and social assistance (-224,000); accommodation and food services (-178,000); and state and local government education (-124,000). Job openings increased in federal government (+22,000). The number of job openings decreased in the Northeast and Midwest regions. (See table 1.)

                         Hires

In August, the number and rate of hires decreased to 6.3 million (-439,000) and 4.3 percent, respectively. Hires decreased in accommodation and food services (-240,000) and in state and local government education (-160,000). The number of hires decreased in the Midwest region. (See table 2.)

                         Separations

Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm.

In August, the number and rate of total separations were little changed at 6.0 million and 4.1 percent, respectively. The total separations level increased in accommodation and food services (+203,000) and in state and local government education (+57,000). The total separations level decreased in other services (-68,000) and in state and local government, excluding education (-26,000). Total separations were little changed in all four regions. (See table 3.)

The number of quits increased in August to 4.3 million (+242,000). The quits rate increased to a series high of 2.9 percent. Quits increased in accommodation and food services (+157,000); wholesale trade (+26,000); and state and local government education (+25,000). Quits decreased in real estate and rental and leasing (-23,000). The number of quits increased in the South and Midwest regions. (See table 4.)

In August, the number and rate of layoffs and discharges were little changed at 1.3 million and 0.9 percent, respectively. Layoffs and discharges decreased in other services (-61,000) and in state and local government, excluding education (-22,000). Layoffs and discharges increased in state and local government education (+19,000). Layoffs and discharges were little changed in all four regions. (See table 5.)

The number of other separations edged up in August to 390,000 (+49,000). Other separations increased in several industries with the largest increases in state and local government education (+13,000); information (+11,000); and durable goods manufacturing (+8,000). The other separations level increased in the West region. (See table 6.)

                         Net Change in Employment

Large numbers of hires and separations occur every month throughout the business cycle. Net employment change results from the relationship between hires and separations. When the number of hires exceeds the number of separations, employment rises, even if the hires level is steady or declining. Conversely, when the number of hires is less than the number of separations, employment declines, even if the hires level is steady or rising.

Over the 12 months ending in August 2021, hires totaled 72.6 million and separations totaled 66.7

million, yielding a net employment gain of 5.9 million. These totals include workers who may have been hired and separated more than once during the year.

                         Establishment Size Class

In August, the job openings rate decreased in medium establishments with 50-249 employees. The hires rate decreased in large establishments with 250-999 employees. The layoffs and discharges rate decreased in medium establishments with 50-249 employees. The other separations rate decreased in large establishments with 1,000-4,999 employees. For a more in-depth description of the JOLTS establishment size class estimates, please visit

http://www.bls.gov/jlt/sizeclassmethodology.htm.

* * * * * * *

U.S. Job Openings Decreased in August for First Time This Year.

– Vacancies ease to 10.4 million from record 11.1 million

– Quits rate increases to record 2.9%, underscoring churn

* * *

U.S. job openings declined in August for the first time this year — though remained near a record high — as demand for labor wavered slightly amid rising Covid-19 cases during the month.  

The number of available positions eased to 10.4 million from an upwardly revised 11.1 million in July, the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, showed Tuesday. The median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists was for 11 million openings.

Meantime, more people voluntarily left their jobs, underscoring how wage increases, sign-on incentives and a plethora of job vacancies are fueling significant turnover. The quits rate, or the number of quits in the month as a percent of total employment, increased to a record 2.9%.

Despite the pullback in job vacancies, the still-elevated level of openings points to a persistent mismatch between labor supply and demand in the economy. Businesses ranging from manufacturers to restaurants are desperate for workers, but workforce participation remains depressed amid ongoing virus fears, choppy school reopenings and built-up savings accounts.

The abatement of these factors in the coming months should support hiring, but the timing of when this will occur is unclear. New Covid-19 cases are now falling, but labor force participation has remained stubbornly low around the same level for months. In fact, participation declined in September as fewer people looked for work. 

For every unemployed American in August, there were 1.2 openings. Vacancies declined in health care, accommodation and food services, and state and local education.

Total hires fell in August to 6.3 million, reflecting declines in accommodation and food services as well as education. The hires rate decreased to 4.3%. Layoffs and discharges decreased.

The JOLTS figures trail the government’s monthly jobs data. That report, out last week, showed payrolls trailed economists’ forecasts for a second month, rising just 194,000 in September. That was the smallest gain of the year. A new wave of Covid-19 infections in recent months paired with ongoing hiring challenges have weighed on job growth, particularly in sectors like leisure and hospitality.

Separate figures showed a record share of small-businesses owners — 51% — said they had vacant positions they could not fill in September, according to data from the National Federation of Independent Business. A record 42% of small firms said they raised compensation, and nearly a third indicated they plan to do so in the next three months.

Consumers have taken notice. In the Conference Board’s September survey, a record share of consumers said jobs were “plentiful.”

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo

Mondo. Stagflazione. Il cigno nero ha fatto il nido. – Financial Times.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-10-13.

2021-10-11__ Financial Tmes 001

Cerchiamo di essere chiari, nei limiti del possibile.

Non fa poi grande differenza che sul libero mercato internazionale il natural gas quoti 5.606 oppure 5.587: sono prezzi alti fuori dal controllo delle banche centrali occidentali. Concorrono a sostenere una inflazione strutturale, importata.

A questa fa riscontro nell’enclave occidentale di un blocco funzionale del sistema produttivo, quasi completamente incapace di generare nuovi posti di lavoro.

Usa. Settembre21. Nonfarm Payroll crollati a 194,000. Economisti ne prevedevano 500,000.

Biden ed il bacon aumentato del 17%, le bistecche del 16.6% anno su anno.

Germania. Agosto21. Produzione Industriale -4.0% MoM, -9.0% su dicembre19.

È inutile nascondersi dietro un dito: il cigno nero non solo è arrivato, ma ha anche fatto il nido.

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«L’economia e i mercati rischiano dopo il Covid il ripetersi delle condizioni seguite alla seconda guerra mondiale e alla guerra dello Yom Kippur»

«I mercati mondiali nelle ultime settimane non nascondono una certa agitazione, spaventati dal rischio di stagflazione, ossia da una fase economica in cui le pressioni inflazionistiche rimangono alte ma la crescita ristagna»

«Ci troveremmo così di fronte, rileva il Financial Times, ad una situazione che riflette quella che si registrò all’indomani della seconda guerra mondiale»

«”Le circostanze storiche non si ripetono mai perfettamente e forniranno, nel migliore dei casi, una guida imperfetta al percorso dell’economia nei prossimi anni”»

«Certo che poche prospettive sono peggiori per un’economia della stagflazione: questo perché i valori delle attività sono rapidamente erosi dall’inflazione, così come i rendimenti del capitale, ma, a differenza dell’inflazione che potrebbe accompagnare l’alta occupazione, l’impatto sul mercato del lavoro è negativo in quanto i salari scenderebbero.»

«Tuttavia, gli investitori sono in allarme per la combinazione di interruzione della catena di approvvigionamento, alti prezzi del petrolio e carenze di manodopera»

«Anche i banchieri centrali sono meno tolleranti nei confronti dell’inflazione e hanno molto spazio per inasprire la politica monetaria, non solo aumentando i tassi di interesse ma anche ritirando il quantitative easing.»

«”un inasprimento prematuro, tuttavia, potrebbe portare le banche centrali a provocare la stagnazione che temono: soffocare la crescita proprio mentre l’economia si sta riprendendo”»

«Di sicuro, se l’inflazione dovesse assumere un aspetto più strutturale, il rischio stagflazione si farà più concreto anche perché, come ha avvertito pochi giorni fa lo stesso Powell, non siamo tornati alla piena occupazione che sarebbe l’anello mancante per iniziare il tapering»

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Banche centrali e media cercano di imbellettare la situazione, e gli eufemismi si sprecano.

La massaia che fa la spesa ignora cosa siano il PPI, il PCI e tutta la altra pletora di indicatori, ma realizza pienamente che il bacon è aumentato del 17% e le bistecche del 16.6%.

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Il mondo rischia la stagflazione, l’allarme del Financial Times.

L’economia e i mercati rischiano dopo il Covid il ripetersi delle condizioni seguite alla seconda guerra mondiale e alla guerra dello Yom Kippur.

I mercati mondiali nelle ultime settimane non nascondono una certa agitazione, spaventati dal rischio di stagflazione, ossia da una fase economica in cui le pressioni inflazionistiche rimangono alte ma la crescita ristagna.

Il timore degli operatori è che le spinte inflattive possano, da una parte, spingere le banche centrali verso una normalizzazione della politica monetaria e, dall’altra, avere un impatto negativo sulla crescita, producendo appunto il fenomeno della stagflazione.

Ci troveremmo così di fronte, rileva il Financial Times, ad una situazione che riflette quella che si registrò all’indomani della seconda guerra mondiale: quel che è certo è che i banchieri centrali devono ora camminare su una corda tesa e tenere d’occhio contemporaneamente i dati economici, i rapporti qualitativi sulle catene di approvvigionamento e i sondaggi sulle aspettative di inflazione.

“Le circostanze storiche non si ripetono mai perfettamente e forniranno, nel migliore dei casi, una guida imperfetta al percorso dell’economia nei prossimi anni” scrive il Ft. Però sono valide nel fornire “un esempio” di quanto costerebbe un “passo falso”. 

Certo che poche prospettive sono peggiori per un’economia della stagflazione: questo perché i valori delle attività sono rapidamente erosi dall’inflazione, così come i rendimenti del capitale, ma, a differenza dell’inflazione che potrebbe accompagnare l’alta occupazione, l’impatto sul mercato del lavoro è negativo in quanto i salari scenderebbero.

“Fortunatamente è chiaro che l’economia globale non sta ancora sperimentando questo esito infelice” scrive il Financial Times: quello che preoccupa quindi è solo un orizzonte temporale nel lungo termine, in quanto le economie sono ora sostenute da una massiccia quantità di stimoli. Mentre l’inflazione è in rialzo con la riapertura delle economie, lo stesso vale per la crescita. Certo, è da aspettarsi una leggera decelerazione nel ritmo di espansione nel momento in cui le economie vanno normalizzandosi dopo la pandemia. 

Tuttavia, gli investitori sono in allarme per la combinazione di interruzione della catena di approvvigionamento, alti prezzi del petrolio e carenze di manodopera. Le pressioni temporanee sui prezzi potrebbero essere incorporate in aspettative a più lungo termine e durare anche quando la spinta alla crescita dalla riapertura svanisce.

Per il momento, tutto quello che le banche centrali possono fare è essere attente ai rischi e continuare con i loro piani per allentare gradualmente i loro programmi di stimolo. Secondo il Ft, da parte loro i governi dovrebbero valutare ora le necessarie riforme sul lato dell’offerta per allentare i colli di bottiglia. 

                         Gli anni ’70 dello shock petrolifero

La stagflazione è comunemente associata agli anni ’70, quando gli alti tassi di crescita del dopoguerra iniziarono a svanire e l’inflazione aumentò, in particolare dopo lo “shock petrolifero” seguito alla guerra dello Yom Kippur del 1973. Il mondo, tuttavia, è molto diverso oggi.

Cinquant’anni fa, il tipo di spirale salari-prezzi che fu portata avanti dai sindacati, cercando di tenere il passo con la corsa dei prezzi, “è improbabile che si ripeta”. Anche i banchieri centrali sono meno tolleranti nei confronti dell’inflazione e hanno molto spazio per inasprire la politica monetaria, non solo aumentando i tassi di interesse ma anche ritirando il quantitative easing.

Secondo il Ft, “un inasprimento prematuro, tuttavia, potrebbe portare le banche centrali a provocare la stagnazione che temono: soffocare la crescita proprio mentre l’economia si sta riprendendo”. Lo stesso Jerome Powell, presidente della Fed, la scorsa settimana ha osservato come le banche centrali stiano sottovalutando la necessità di continuare gli stimoli.

L’autorevole testata britannica fa quindi un confronto con il periodo dopo la seconda guerra mondiale, “un parallelo storico migliore degli anni ’70”. Inizialmente l’inflazione aumentò considerevolmente negli Stati Uniti e nel Regno Unito, ma poi scese rapidamente.

Come ha sottolineato la società di consulenza Capital Economics, all’epoca in Gran Bretagna la necessità di milioni di soldati congedati di trovare rapidamente nuovi posti di lavoro portò a carenze di manodopera in mezzo alla crescente disoccupazione. “La fine della pandemia ha prodotto una dinamica simile” segnala il Ft. 

                         La tempesta perfetta

Di sicuro, se l’inflazione dovesse assumere un aspetto più strutturale, il rischio stagflazione si farà più concreto anche perché, come ha avvertito pochi giorni fa lo stesso Powell, non siamo tornati alla piena occupazione che sarebbe l’anello mancante per iniziare il tapering.

Ma il ritiro degli stimoli è ormai messo in calendario per fine 2021, e un rialzo dei tassi americani è previsto per la metà del prossimo anno.

Cosa succede in questa che gli analisti, interpellati da Reuters, definiscono la “tempesta perfetta?”. Non si arresta la corsa del dollaro, che seppur indicatore di un’economia forte, rischia di danneggiare soprattutto gli esportatori americani. 

La divisa americana si sta apprezzando in modo notevole, alimentata anche dall’aumento dei rendimenti dei Treasury Usa e dalle preoccupazioni sulla possibile battaglia per alzare il tetto del debito degli Stati Uniti. Il suo rally può avere implicazioni per l’economia americana, dal momento che rende i suoi prodotti meno competitivi all’estero e più costoso per le multinazionali riconvertire i loro fondi nella valuta nazionale.

A dare slancio al rally del dollaro sono anche i timori per il crollo di China Evergrande Group, così come i timori per l’aumento dell’inflazione e la crescita potenzialmente più lenta. Sono questi i fattori, secondo gli analisti, ad indicare un ambiente macro più stagflazionistico e a spingere gli investitori, soprattutto quelli più timorosi, a rifugiarsi nel dollaro. Altri investitori credono che la forza del biglietto verde non sia invece destinata a durare.