Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Germania. Dec21. Indice Prezzi Produzione, Ppi, +24.4% su Dec20. Weimar si avvicina.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-01-28.

2022-01-25__ Germany PPI 001

                         In sintesi.

– the index of producer prices for industrial products increased by 24.2% compared with December 2020

– Energy prices as a whole were up 69.0% compared to December 2020

– strong price increases of natural gas (distribution) which was +121.9% on December 2020 and electricity (+74.3%)

* * *

– Prices of intermediate goods increased by 19.3% compared to December 2020

– the increase of metals’ prices, which were 36.1% up on December 2020

– Prices of metallic steel and ferro-alloys increased by 54.4%

– Prices of non-ferrous metals were up 24.5%

– price increases of secondary raw materials +69.1%

– wooden containers +66.9%

– fertilisers and nitrogen compounds +63.5 %

– sawn timber were up 61.5%

– packaging industry increased by 41.3%

– paperboard were up 30.3%

– prepared feeds for farm animals rose by 26.8%

– cereal flour by 21.5%

– the price increase of crude vegetable oils +54.5%

– Butter prices rose by 48.1%

– Beef prices increased by 18.8% compared to December 2020

– Energy prices were up 24.8% on the annual average of 2020

– In 2021 natural gas prices (distribution) rose by 41.7%

– prices of petroleum products by 27.6% and electricity prices by 25.1%

* * * * * * *

La Germania è in piena stagflazione.

È del tutto sequenziale che gli aumenti dei prezzi negli scambi tra i grossisti si ripercuotano poi sui prezzi al consumo, generando una spirale perversa che si autosostiene.

La puntigliosa elencazione di tutti i settori con significativi aumenti dei prezzi degli scambi tra grossisti è stata riportata per far comprendere meglio l’entità del disastro.

L’inflazione è una creatura satanica, come bene evidenzia la storia di Weimar.

* * * * * * *


Destatis. Producer prices in December 2021: +24.2% on December 2020.

Producer prices of industrial products (domestic market), December 2021

+5.0% on the previous month

+24.2% on the same month a year earlier

+10.5% on an annual average in 2021 compared to 2020

* * * * * * *

Wiesbaden – In December 2021, the index of producer prices for industrial products increased by 24.2% compared with December 2020. As reported by the Federal Statistical Office this was the highest increase ever compared to the corresponding month of the preceding year. Compared with the preceding month November 2021 the overall index rose by 5.0% in December 2021.

Mainly responsible for the increase of producer prices still was the price increase of energy.

                         Strong increase in prices for all energy sources

Energy prices as a whole were up 69.0% compared to December 2020 and by 15.7% compared to November 2021. Mainly responsible for the high rise of energy prices were the strong price increases of natural gas (distribution) which was +121.9% on December 2020 and electricity (+74.3%).

The overall index disregarding energy was 10.4% up on December 2020.

                         Significant price increase on intermediate goods, especially regarding metals, secondary raw materials, fertilisers and wood

Prices of intermediate goods increased by 19.3% compared to December 2020. Compared to November 2021 these prices were up 0.9 %. The highest impact on the price development of intermediate goods had the increase of metals’ prices, which were 36.1% up on December 2020. Prices of metallic steel and ferro-alloys increased by 54.4%. Prices of non-ferrous metals were up 24.5%.

Especially high were the price increases of secondary raw materials (+69.1%), of wooden containers (+66.9%) and of fertilisers and nitrogen compounds (+63.5 %), whose prices rose by 13.8% compared to the previous month November 2021. Prices of sawn timber were up 61.5%, but fell compared to the previous month for the fourth time in succession.

Compared to December 2020 prices of corrugated paper and paperboard, which are important for the packaging industry, increased by 41.3%, prices of paper and paperboard were up 30.3%. Prices of prepared feeds for farm animals rose by 26.8% and of cereal flour by 21.5%.

                         Growth in prices of non-durable consumer goods mainly due to increasing prices for oils and fat

Prices of non-durable consumer goods increased by 4.7% compared to December 2020 and rose by 0.8% compared to November 2021. From December 2020 to December 2021 food prices increased by 6.4%. Especially high was the price increase of crude vegetable oils (+54.5%). Butter prices rose by 48.1% (+7.6% compared to November 2021). Beef prices increased by 18.8% compared to December 2020, coffee prices by 10.6%.

Prices of capital goods, such as machines and vehicles, rose by 3.8%. Especially high was the price increase of parts and accessories of computing machines (+18.5%) and of metal structures and parts of structures (+17.9%). Prices of durable consumer goods increased by 3.7% compared to December 2020, mainly caused by the price development of furniture (+4.9%).

                         Results on the annual average of 2021

In 2021, the annual average index of producer prices for industrial products increased by 10.5% compared to the average index of 2020. In 2020 it had been down 1.0% on 2019.

The development of energy prices had the greatest impact on the development of the annual average of the total index due to its high rate of change in combination with its high weighting factor. Energy prices were up 24.8% on the annual average of 2020 (2020 compared to 2019: -4.0%). In 2021 natural gas prices (distribution) rose by 41.7%, prices of petroleum products by 27.6% and electricity prices by 25.1%.

Disregarding energy, producer prices increased by 6.1% compared to 2020 (unchanged in 2020 compared to 2019).

Prices of intermediate products rose by 12.5% compared to 2020 (-1.5% in 2020 compared to 2019). The price increase of metals (+25.4%) had the greatest impact on that development. Prices of metallic secondary raw materials were up 69.3%. Sawn timber prices rose by 52.5%, prices of wooden containers by 49.8% and those of prepared feeds for farm animals by 19.3%.

Prices of durable consumer goods increased by 2.3% compared to 2020, capital goods by 2.0%.

Prices of non-durable consumer goods increased by 1.1%, food prices were up 1.1% as well. Especially high was the price increase of crude vegetable oils (+35.9%). Butter prices were up 17.6%, sugar prices 10.3%. By contrast, pork prices fell by 11.1%.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

Buffett Indicator. Aveva dato indicazioni corrette della bolla in atto. Persi 6.6 trilioni.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-01-25.

2022-01-25__ Buffett 001

«The Buffett Indicator is the ratio of total US stock market valuation to GDP. Named after Warren Buffett, who called the ratio “the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment”. (Buffett has since walked back those comments, hesitating to endorse any single measure as either comprehensive or consistent over time, but this ratio remains credited to his name). To calculate the ratio, we need to get data for both metrics: Total Market Value and GDP.»

* * * * * * *

Gli ‘economisti’ lo disprezzano, ma funziona più che bene.

Il 23 settembre valeva il 239% e segnalava la presenza di una grossolana bolla in atto.

Al 20 gennaio era sceso al 202%, segno che la bolla si era parzialmente sgonfiata, ma sussiste tuttora.

In questo lasso di tempo il valore aggregato di mercato americano ha bruciato 6.600 miliardi di dollari americani.

Ma siamo solo agli inizi.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Finanza e Sistema Bancario

Europa. Le Borse crollano. Eurostoxx -4.14%. E siamo solo agli inizi.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-01-24.

2022-01-24__ Borse 001 Ftse Mib

2022-01-24__ Borse 002 DAX

2022-01-24__ Borse 003 CAC

2022-01-24__ Borse 004 FTSE 100

2022-01-24__ Borse 005 IBEX

2022-01-24__ Borse 005 Eurostoxx 50

Sono bastate le voci che la Fed stia per varare il tapering ed alzi i tassi di interesse per fare scoppiare quella immane bolla delle borse occidentali

Ma nessuno, proprio nessuno si illuda: siamo solo agli inizi.

Il gioco a monopoli sembrerebbe essere terminato.

* * * * * * *


Borse, lunedì ad alta tensione tra Fed e Ucraina. Milano (-4%) la peggiore in attesa del Quirinale

Attesa per le decisioni della Banca centrale Usa. Timori di un intervento militare russo a Kiev: giù rublo e Borsa di Mosca. Spread in rialzo mentre inizia il voto per l’elezione del presidente della Repubblica.

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) – Le tensioni geopolitiche sul fronte ucraino e l’attesa sempre più nervosa per le indicazioni della Fed sui tassi d’interesse hanno piegato le Borse europee che, fin da inizio giornata colpite da un’ondata di vendite, hanno chiuso in profondo rosso, anche se sopra i minimi di seduta, in scia a Wall Street, ancora in calo dopo la settimana peggiore da marzo 2020. Il FTSE MIB -4,02% di Milano è stato il peggiore, complice anche l’incertezza sull’elezione del futuro presidente della Repubblica, arrivando a perdere il 4,5% e scendendo anche sotto 26.000 punti, ai livelli di fine novembre scorso. Non è andata meglio alle altre piazze continentali, con il CAC 40 -3,97% di Parigi, il DAX 40 -3,79% di Francoforte, l’IBEX 35 -3,06% di Madrid, il Ftse 100 di Londra e l’AEX -3,27% di Amsterdam in profondo rosso. La Borsa di Mosca in caduta libera (-8% l’indice Rts) e il rublo ha perso nettamente posizioni verso il dollaro e l’euro.

Gli indici hanno allungato così la serie negativa iniziata la settimana scorsa tra l’attesa degli annunci della Federal Reserve e le preoccupazioni per l’escalation di tensione sulla crisi Ucraina, con il presidente americano Joe Biden che sta valutando la possibilità di inviare diverse migliaia di soldati americani, oltre a navi da guerra e aerei, da dislocare nei paesi dell’Europa orientale e dei paesi baltici membri della Nato. Ad ogni modo, la due giorni di riunione del Fomc, il braccio operativo della Fed, in calendario il 25 e 26 gennaio tiene banco. Gli analisti ritengono che l’istituto centrale opterà per lo status quo, ma dovrebbe fornire indicazioni sulle mosse di marzo, quando il costo del denaro dovrebbe essere ritoccato al rialzo, forse anche di 50 punti base.

                         In calo anche Wall Street.

Andamento in netto ribasso a Wall Street, dopo i pesanti cali della scorsa settimana. Il Nasdaq cede circa 2 punti, dopo avere perso il 7,6% nella precedente ottava, registrando la peggiore settimana dal marzo 2020 (la quarta consecutiva in calo), e sta vivendo il peggior inizio d’anno dal 2008 (-12% a gennaio). La scorsa settimana è anche finito in correzione, ovvero in calo di oltre il 10% dal recente record del 19 novembre. Dow Jones e S&P 500 hanno concluso la terza settimana consecutiva in calo, la peggiore dal 2020, con cali rispettivamente del 4,6% e del 5,7%.

                         A Milano tutti i titoli in calo, auto fanalino di coda.

A Piazza Affari le vendite non hanno risparmiato nessuno dei titoli principali, a partite dal settore auto della “galassia” Agnelli-Elkann: a Milano Stellantis -7,39% , Exor -6,39% ,Cnh Industrial -6,58% e Iveco Group -7,12% hanno registrato le perdite più consistenti. Inoltre, giorno di stacco degli acconti sul dividendo per Enel -3,47% l e Snam -2,73% . Enel staccherà 19 centesimi per azione (per un rendimento del 2,7% sul prezzo di chiusura di venerdì 21), Snam di 0,1048 (2,05%). Attenzione su Eni -3,20% , dopo l’annuncio che la controllata Var Energi AS sarà quotata alla Borsa di Oslo. L’operazione rientra nella strategia di Eni di valorizzazione dei propri asset al fine di liberare nuove risorse da allocare per l’accelerazione della strategia di transizione energetica. Occhi su Telecom Italia -2,48% , dopo che nei giorni scorsi Pietro Labriola è stato nominato amministratore delegato e nell’attesa che Iliad sveli il proprio ingresso nel fisso e nella fibra. Ma il settore tlc è sotto i riflettori soprattutto per le indiscrezioni relative alla possibile combinazione delle attività italiane proprio da parte di Iliad e di Vodafone. Infine, male Diasorin -5,70% nel giorno in cui l’a.d. Carlo Rosa è stato rinviato a giudizio per l’ipotesi di reato di insider trading.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

Inflazione e tassi di interesse. Le banche centrali latitano, ma i mercati fremono.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-01-23.

FED 001

Negli Stati Uniti il Producer Price Index, PPI, vale 9.7%, mentre il Core Consumer Price Index, CPI, vale il 5.5%.

L’inflazione è il principale problema americano, quello che i consumatori sperimentano tutti i giorni al supermercato diventando irascibili e furiosi, pronti a trarne le conseguenze alle ormai prossime elezioni di midterm.

È una inflazione importata, generata in gran parte dai tumultuosi aumenti delle materie prime, specie quelle energetiche, e dagli sgangherati provvedimenti di Joe Biden.

Su questo l’Amministrazione e la Fed non possono fare molto, ma non fanno nemmeno quel poco che potrebbero fare.

* * * * * * *

«Treasury yields surged, Nasdaq 100 Index futures tumbled and global stocks were dragged down by concern that central banks will have to raise rates sooner than expected»

«Treasuries fell across the curve, pushing yields up to levels last seen before the pandemic roiled markets»

«The moves seeped into other countries, with benchmark German yields rising to within one basis point of turning positive for the first time since May 2019»

«Tech also led the retreat in Europe, while energy shares and Saudi stocks rallied as Brent oil surged to the highest level in seven years»

«Easing concerns about the impact of the omicron virus strain on demand, together with shrinking inventories and geopolitical risks are contributing to forecasts of $100 per barrel crude later this year, underscoring the inflation challenges facing the Federal Reserve»

«Global equities have had a volatile start to the year as investors shift out of more expensive and rates-sensitive sectors such as technology into cheaper, so-called value shares»

* * * * * * *

«inflation challenges facing the Federal Reserve».

Alla fine la Fed sarà obbligata a fare il tapering ed a far salire i tassi di interesse, anche se questi resteranno ben al di sotto del tasso di inflazione.

* * * * * * *


Surging Bond Yields Send Nasdaq Futures Tumbling: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) — Treasury yields surged, Nasdaq 100 Index futures tumbled and global stocks were dragged down by concern that central banks will have to raise rates sooner than expected.

Treasuries fell across the curve, pushing yields up to levels last seen before the pandemic roiled markets. The moves seeped into other countries, with benchmark German yields rising to within one basis point of turning positive for the first time since May 2019.

Nasdaq futures and technology stocks from Apple Inc. to Tesla Inc. fell in U.S. premarket trading. Tech also led the retreat in Europe, while energy shares and Saudi stocks rallied as Brent oil surged to the highest level in seven years.

Easing concerns about the impact of the omicron virus strain on demand, together with shrinking inventories and geopolitical risks are contributing to forecasts of $100 per barrel crude later this year, underscoring the inflation challenges facing the Federal Reserve. 

Bank stocks also fell in premarket trading after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reported worse-than-expected fourth-quarter trading revenue. Goldman tumbled about 4%, while Bank of America Corp., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley dropped.

Meanwhile, Microsoft Inc. fell in early trading after announcing a $68.7 billion deal to buy Activision Blizzard Inc., uniting two of the biggest forces in video games. The maker behind the “Call of Duty” franchise surged.

Global equities have had a volatile start to the year as investors shift out of more expensive and rates-sensitive sectors such as technology into cheaper, so-called value shares. Bank of America’s January global fund manager survey showed that net allocation to the tech sector fell 20% month-over-month to 1%, the lowest since 2008, though they expect inflation to fall this year and are placing record bets on a boom in both commodities and stocks overall. 

“Although rising bond yields are challenging the entire tech sector, investors must distinguish between profitless names that are a long way from demonstrating healthy earning power and mega-cap tech firms that can defend their margins,” Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors, wrote in a note to investors.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

Biden. L’inflazione rende furibondi gli Elettori. Midterm si preannuncia un disastro.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-01-23.

2022-01-18__ Democratici ed inflazione 001

Biden disapproval hits new high as voters give him bad grades on economy, new CNBC/Change poll says

President Joe Biden’s overall disapproval rating reached a new high in December as more voters signaled their unhappiness with his handling of the economy and the Covid pandemic.

Results from a CNBC/Change Research poll show 60% of respondents said they disapprove of Biden’s handling of the economy as he nears the conclusion of his first year in office.

A 55% majority of survey respondents also signaled disapproval of his leadership during the pandemic, an area in which he previously excelled. ….

The latest sign of trouble for Biden comes as his administration looks to tackle a wide range of economic and political problems ahead of the 2022 midterm elections, which will decide the balance of power in Congress. ….

The economy was the top priority for men and women, every age cohort, Latino and white voters, and those with and without college educations. Black respondents, who named racism their chief priority, said the economy takes second place. ….

On personal economic issues, voters are even more likely to criticize the president. Some 72% disapprove of his handling of the price of everyday goods, while 66% disapprove of his efforts to help their wallets.

* * * * * * *

«This country is getting angry when they go to the supermarket»

«Discontent over skyrocketing inflation is the most important issue for voters heading into this year’s midterm election»

«We’re not just anxious anymore. This country is getting angry»

«On the issue of inflation, spending more money makes the problem worse»

«Discontent over skyrocketing inflation is the most important issue for voters heading into this year’s midterm election, and Democrats are going to pay the price»

«They’re going to take that anger out at the ballot box in November»

«he can’t fathom why President Joe Biden is trying to paint such a rosy picture of the economy while many people are struggling with higher prices»

«Voters have given Biden poor marks on the economy in recent polling»

«There’s a complete disconnect between what they are being told and what they are experiencing»

«The reason inflation is so important politically and economically, it’s universal, ubiquitous and it’s understandable …. this is going to have a much bigger affect on the electoral outcome in November than things like the voting rights act or Jan. 6. This is hitting people where they live»

«You can’t blame Republicans …. This is only something that’s happened over the last year»

«But the public is increasingly thinking it’s his [Biden’s] fault. And the consequences of that are significant on Democrats»

«The Fed has recently been telegraphing accelerated steps to tamp down price pressures after spending months saying that rising inflation would be transitory»

«the failure of Biden’s massive Build Back Better bill — at the hands of conservative Democratic West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin — was a blessing for the economy»

«But on the issue of inflation, spending more money makes the problem worse»

* * * * * * *

I sondaggi sono tutti concordi nel riportare come i grandi temi proposti dalla Harris-Biden Admnistration siano ininfluenti sul verosimile comportamento alle elezioni di midterm degli Elettori, resi furibondi dagli aumenti dei prezzi, dalla inflazione in atto.

Il controllo di Camera e Senato sembrerebbe dipendere quasi totalmente dagli importi al supermercato dei generi di prima necessità, che molte famiglie non possono più permettersi.

Intanto, Administration e Fed latitano, impotenti

* * * * * * *


‘This country is getting angry when they go to the supermarket’ — GOP pollster says Democrats are going to be crushed in November.

– Discontent over skyrocketing inflation is the most important issue for voters heading into this year’s midterm election, Frank Luntz told CNBC on Friday.

– “We’re not just anxious anymore. This country is getting angry,” the GOP pollster said. “They’re going to take that anger out at the ballot box in November.”

–  “The challenge is you can’t spend your way out of it,” he noted. “On the issue of inflation, spending more money makes the problem worse.”

* * * * * * *

Discontent over skyrocketing inflation is the most important issue for voters heading into this year’s midterm election, and Democrats are going to pay the price, according to Frank Luntz, a longtime GOP pollster and strategist.

While Luntz is a Republican, he tends to take both parties to task when he feels they’re missing the mark on an issue.

“We’re not just anxious anymore. This country is getting angry when they go to the supermarket, when they fill up their tank,” Luntz told CNBC on Friday. “They’re going to take that anger out at the ballot box in November,” with the Democrats’ slim majorities in the House and Senate at stake.

Luntz said he can’t fathom why President Joe Biden is trying to paint such a rosy picture of the economy while many people are struggling with higher prices against the backdrop of the hardships of the continuing pandemic, and spiking Covid cases around the nation due to the highly contagious omicron variant.

Voters have given Biden poor marks on the economy in recent polling, including the latest CNBC/Change Research survey.

“There’s a complete disconnect between what they are being told and what they are experiencing,” Luntz said. “The reason inflation is so important politically and economically, it’s universal, ubiquitous and it’s understandable.” He added, “I think this is going to have a much bigger affect on the electoral outcome in November than things like the voting rights act or Jan. 6. This is hitting people where they live.”

Luntz bases a lot of his analysis on takeaways from focus groups with swing voters. In the lead-up to the 2020 presidential election, for example, he predicted Biden would beat incumbent Donald Trump. However, before and after the election, the pollster was rather even handed in his criticism of both Trump and Biden, in interviews on CNBC.

“You can’t blame Republicans” for the high inflation, Luntz said Friday on “Squawk Box.” “This is only something that’s happened over the last year.”

“It may not be Joe Biden’s responsibility,” Luntz acknowledged, recognizing that the dynamics causing rising prices – such as persistent easy money by the Federal Reserve spanning both the Trump and Biden administrations — are more complex than the current White House’s policies alone.

“But the public is increasingly thinking it’s his [Biden’s] fault. And the consequences of that are significant on Democrats,” he added.

The White House didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

This week, there was more confirmation of what Americans have been feeling in their everyday lives: Inflation is raging, and everything from food to gas to buying big-ticket items like used cars is costing a whole lot more.

The government said Thursday that the December producer price index rose 9.7% year over year, the largest increase on record. The reading on last month’s wholesale inflation came one day after December’s consumer price index rose 7% year over year, the quickest pace since June 1982. While both numbers were basically in line with Wall Street estimates, they were still more evidence of problematic inflation.

The Fed has recently been telegraphing accelerated steps to tamp down price pressures after spending months saying that rising inflation would be transitory. In confirmation hearings this week on Capitol Hill and in the minutes from the Fed’s December meeting, central bank officials have been signaling multiple hikes of near-zero interest rates this year, in addition to a faster tapering of Covid-era bond purchases and talk about reducing the Fed’s balance sheet.

Luntz said the failure of Biden’s massive Build Back Better bill — at the hands of conservative Democratic West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin — was a blessing for the economy. More stimulus money “would only be a fuel, it would only be a lubricant for greater inflation and that is exactly what the people do not want right now,” he added.

“The challenge is you can’t spend your way out of it. You can spend more money to hire people. You can spend more money to juice the economy or help small business. But on the issue of inflation, spending more money makes the problem worse,” Luntz said.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

Usa. Disoccupazione. Iniziale 286k, continua 1,635k. Una altra severa débâcle.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela

2022-01-21.

2022-01-21__ Usa 001

                         In sintesi.

– Initial jobless claims totaled 286,000 for the week ended Jan. 15, well above the 225,000 estimate

– Continuing claims also rose, jumping to 1.64 million

– California showed a sharp 6,075 jump in claims

– New York reported a slide of 14,011

– Total recipients of all unemployment compensation programs rose by 180,114 to 2.13 million

* * * * * * *

Il 13 gennaio il Ppi, Producer Price Index, valeva il +9.7%, anno su anno

Il 12 gennaio il Cpi, Core Consumer Price Index, valeva il +5.5%, anno su anno.

Biden. Commento della Casa Bianca ai dati sulla inflazione. – Fotocopia.

Usa. Dec21. Indice dei Prezzi al Consumo, CPI, +7.0% anno su anno. Inflazione davvero alta.

Dec21. Nonfarm Payroll precipita a 199,000. Attesi 400,000. Una débâcle.

Parafrasando Cromwell: ‘Biden, in nome di Dio,vattene!’

* * * * * * *


Jobless claims jump to 286,000, the highest level since October.

– Initial jobless claims totaled 286,000 for the week ended Jan. 15, well above the 225,000 estimate.

– Continuing claims also rose, jumping to 1.64 million.

– The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index was higher than expected, though the future prices paid index, an inflation gauge, hit its highest level since August 1988.

* * * * * * *

Jobless claims took an unexpected turn higher last week in a potential sign that the wintertime omicron surge was hitting the employment picture.

Initial filings for the week ended Jan. 15 totaled 286,000, well above the Dow Jones estimate of 225,000 and a substantial gain from the previous week’s 231,000.

The total was the highest since the week of Oct. 16, 2021, and marks a reversal after claims just a few weeks ago hit their lowest level in more than 50 years.

                         Initial claims for unemployment insurance.

“Omicron has put a wrench in where we stand on the labor market front, but with hiring challenges, employers are likely trying to hold onto their workforce,” said Mike Loewengart, managing director of investment strategy at E-Trade. “So this could be a short-term surge in jobless claims.”

Continuing claims, which run a week behind the headline data, also shot up, rising 84,000 to 1.64 million. One bright spot in the data showed that the four-week moving average for continuing claims, which irons out weekly volatility, declined by 55,250 to 1.664 million, the lowest since the week ended April 27, 2019.

California showed a sharp 6,075 jump in claims, while New York reported a slide of 14,011, according to unadjusted data.

                         Continuing claims for unemployment insurance.

Total recipients of all unemployment compensation programs rose by 180,114 to 2.13 million, according to data through Jan. 1.

Jobless claims are seen as a leading real-time gauge of the employment picture, which has brightened in some respects but is still beset by multiple trouble spots.

The unemployment rate has fallen to 3.9% after a record year of nonfarm payrolls growth. Still, the total employment level remains 2.9 million below where it was in February 2020, just before the pandemic declaration.

Labor force participation remains well below pre-pandemic levels, with the current 61.9% rate 1.5 percentage points below the pre-Covid level. The labor force has contracted by nearly 2.3 million during the period.

A separate economic report Thursday morning showed that manufacturing activity expanded faster than expected in the Philadelphia area.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s outlook survey registered a reading of 23.2, a measure of the percentage point difference between companies reporting expansion versus contraction. The estimate had been for 18.5. Just 16% of the companies surveyed said they expect decreases in activity, with gains coming in new orders and future shipments.

The future employment index stumbled 19 points to 38.4, but that still reflects expectations of employment growth.

Inflation, however, remains an issue. The future prices paid index surged 23 points to 76.4, its highest level since August 1988.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Unione Europea

Eurozona. Nov21. Produzione Industriale -1.5% su Nov20. – Eurostat.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-01-16.

2022-01-14__ Eurostat 001

Euro zone output falls in Nov vs year earlier, defying growth expectation

Brussels, Jan 12 (Reuters) – Euro zone industrial production fell in November from a year earlier, the European Union’s statistics office Eurostat said on Wednesday, defying market expectations of a small increase mainly due to a sharp drop in the output of capital goods.

Eurostat said industrial output in the 19 countries sharing the euro rose 2.3% month-on-month but still fell 1.5% year-on-year. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 0.5% monthly rise and a 0.6% annual gain.

Figures for October were also sharply revised downwards to a decline of 1.3% in the month and a 0.2% year-on-year gain from previously reported rises of respectively 1.1% and 3.3%

The surprise year-on-year fall in November was mainly caused by a 9.8% slump in the production of capital goods, which pulled down the overall reading despite a 4.4% rise for durable consumer goods and a 6.1% rise for non-durable consumer goods.

2022-01-14__ Eurostat 002

* * * * * * *

L’Eurozona è in stagflazione: alta inflazione e produzione industriale in contrazione.

Si noti come Germania e Francia siano anche esse in contrazione, essendo la produzione industriale di -2.5% e -0.2%, rispettivamente. Il dato italiano non è al momento disponibile.

* * * * * * *

Eurostat. November 2021 compared with October 2021. Industrial production up by 2.3% in euro area and by 2.5% in the EU. Down by 1.5% and unchanged compared with November 2020.

In November 2021, the seasonally adjusted industrial production rose by 2.3% in the euro area and by 2.5% in the EU, compared with October 2021, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In October 2021, industrial production fell by 1.3% in the euro area and by 0.8% in the EU.

In November 2021 compared with November 2020, industrial production decreased by 1.5% in the euro area and remained unchanged in the EU.

                         Monthly comparison by main industrial grouping and by Member State

In the euro area in November 2021, compared with October 2021, production of non-durable consumer goods rose by 3.2%, capital goods by 1.5%, energy by 1.2% and intermediate goods by 0.9%, while production of durable consumer goods fell by 0.2%.

In the EU, production of non-durable consumer goods rose by 3.0%, capital goods by 2.3%, intermediate goods by 1.4%, energy by 0.9% and durable consumer goods by 0.1%.

Among Member States for which data are available, the largest monthly increases were registered in Ireland (+37.3%), Poland (+5.9%) and Czechia (+4.8%). The highest decreases were observed in Belgium (-4.4%), Malta (-3.7%) and Luxembourg (-2.3%).

                         Annual comparison by main industrial grouping and by Member State

In the euro area in November 2021, compared with November 2020, production of capital goods fell by 9.8%, while intermediate goods rose by 1.9%, energy by 3.7%, durable consumer goods by 4.4% and non-durable consumer goods by 6.1%.

In the EU, production of capital goods fell by 8.2%, while intermediate goods rose by 2.8%, durable consumer goods by 4.9%, energy by 6.7% and non-durable consumer goods by 7.3%.

Among Member States for which data are available, the largest annual decreases were registered in Ireland (-30.4%), Malta (-7.8%), Germany and Luxembourg (both -2.5%). The highest increases were observed in Lithuania (+17.0%), Poland (+15.3%) and Bulgaria (+13.3%).

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Germania. Dec21. Indice Pressi Ingrosso, WPI, +16.1% su Dec20. – Destatis.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-01-16.

2022-01-13__ Germany wholesales 001

«A wholesale price index (WPI) is an index that measures and tracks the changes in the price of goods in the stages before the retail level. This refers to goods that are sold in bulk and traded between entities or businesses (instead of between consumers). Usually expressed as a ratio or percentage, the WPI shows the included goods’ average price change; it is often seen as one indicator of a country’s level of inflation»

* * * * * * *

Destatis. Wholesale prices in 2021: +9.8% on 2020

                         Wholesale selling prices, December 2021

+0.2% on the previous month

+16.1% on the same month a year earlier

                         Wholesale selling prices, 2021

+9.8% on an annual average in 2021 compared to 2020

* * * * * * *

Wiesbaden – In 2021 the average index of selling prices in wholesale trade was 9.8% higher than the average index of 2020. As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), this was largely due to the higher annual average prices for mineral oil products (+32,0%) and for metals and metal ores (+44.3%). This was also influenced by a base effect due to the low price levels for many raw materials in 2020 in the context of the corona crisis.

Increased annual average selling prices in wholesale trade of waste and scrap (+74.2), as well as grain, unmanufactured tobacco and seeds (+21.8%) also contributed to the higher annual average index in 2021.

                         Wholesale selling prices in December 2021: +16.1% on December 2020

In December 2021 the selling prices in wholesale trade were 16.1% higher than in December 2020. In November 2021 and in October 2021 the annual rates of change had been +16.6% and +15.2%, respectively.

From November 2021 to December 2021, the index rose by 0.2%.

The high rates of change for wholesale prices mainly derive from increased prices for raw materials and intermediate products. The largest impact in December 2021 had the increased prices for mineral oil products (+50.6%).

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Unione Europea

ECB. Il 2022 è l’anno ‘o la va o la spacca’. Potrebbe anche spaccarsi.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-01-15.

Affresco Parete Sud. Sala dei Giganti. Modena. 1532 - 1534.

«many on its council are frightened of what will happen to bond yields»

«The biggest concern is Italy, both for its size (it has one of the largest government-bond markets in the world) and its debt dynamics»

«With the ECB rapidly running out of a market anesthetic, some sort of crisis this year is probably unavoidable»

* * * * * * *

«For good or bad, the future of the euro will probably be decided this year»

«In an attempt to generate inflation, central banks have cut short-term interest rates to nothing or less over the past 20 years or so and expanded their balance sheets to levels that would have been previously unimaginable»

«The European Central Bank has been particularly aggressive. Euro deposit rates are minus 0.5% and the ECB’s balance sheet is laden with 8.5 trillion euros ($9.66 trillion) of assets, four times more than at the beginning of 2015»

«Where the ECB has differed from other central banks is in its other, generally unstated, aim: to keep the euro project on track by preventing yields on sovereign bonds issued by its weaker members from rising abruptly»

«The ECB could pretend that insanely low short- and long-term rates had the aim of trying to drive up inflation when there wasn’t any»

«Inflation rose by 5% in December from a year earlier, Eurostat announced Jan. 7»

«In recent months, euro zone creditor countries, generally in northern Europe, have become increasingly vocal that current policy cannot continue, both because they are worried about domestic inflation and because they are fed up subsidizing more profligate countries»

«More hawkish members of the ECB are openly questioning these predictions, including the influential Isabel Schnabel, the German representative on the governing council. On Jan. 8, she said the transition to a greener economy would very likely mean that energy prices are unlikely to fall»

«Broadly speaking, the ECB currently has three programs: a long-standing Asset Purchase Program (APP), the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) and a third incarnation of a plan to encourage banks to lend to the real economy known as targeted longer-term refinancing operations, or TLTRO»

«the ECB has bought about 1.5 trillion euros of bonds»

«the ECB’s combined purchases of bonds under the APP and the PEPP were 100 billion euros a month»

«Although some institutions have simply used this program to cheapen their overall funding mix, there is little doubt others have used the money to buy government bonds, even riskier ones. Although we don’t know how much, the amount is probably large given that there are some 2.4 trillion euros of outstanding TLTRO loans»

«The biggest reason the ECB has been dragging its heels on ending these programs is that many on its council are frightened of what will happen to bond yields, especially those of the euro zone’s weaker members on the periphery»

«The biggest concern is Italy, both for its size (it has one of the largest government-bond markets in the world) and its debt dynamics»

«With the ECB rapidly running out of a market anesthetic, some sort of crisis this year is probably unavoidable»

«The second is for Italy to leave the euro»

«For the euro to survive, compromise of some sort will be needed»

* * * * * * *

LIndice dei Prezzi alla Produzione ha raggiunto il +23.7% anno su anno.

La ECB può collassarsi sia sullo scoglio dei debiti pubblici, così come su quello della inflazione in tumultuosa crescita.

La banca centrale è in un vicolo cieco, e qualsiasi scelta essa faccia sarà pur sempre molto dolorosa.

L’anno 2022 verosimilmente sarà quello del redde rationem.

* * * * * * *


The Euro Is Facing a Make-or-Break Year. – Bloomberg.

For good or bad, the future of the euro will probably be decided this year. In an attempt to generate inflation, central banks have cut short-term interest rates to nothing or less over the past 20 years or so and expanded their balance sheets to levels that would have been previously unimaginable. The European Central Bank has been particularly aggressive. Euro deposit rates are minus 0.5% and the ECB’s balance sheet is laden with 8.5 trillion euros ($9.66 trillion) of assets, four times more than at the beginning of 2015.

Where the ECB has differed from other central banks is in its other, generally unstated, aim: to keep the euro project on track by preventing yields on sovereign bonds issued by its weaker members from rising abruptly. As it turns out, this makes the euro much less stable.

The ECB could pretend that insanely low short- and long-term rates had the aim of trying to drive up inflation when there wasn’t any. The recent inflationary surge has put that pretense to rest. Inflation rose by 5% in December from a year earlier, Eurostat announced Jan. 7, its highest level in the history of the euro. Strangely, the ECB has continued to claim that this spurt is temporary. Given current extreme monetary policy settings, the ECB’s intransigence can be understood only if you recognize that in recent years the central bank has not been independent in any meaningful sense. It is now firmly under the thumb of government borrowers, especially the weaker ones within the euro zone.

In recent months, euro zone creditor countries, generally in northern Europe, have become increasingly vocal that current policy cannot continue, both because they are worried about about domestic inflation and because they are fed up subsidizing more profligate countries. The deal stitched together late last year was that balance-sheet expansion would end and that the ECB would provide explicit criteria for shifting short rates higher. First, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, would have to be trending higher. Second, the ECB’s inflation forecasts in the current and following year would have to be 2% or more. At the end of December, the central bank announced that it even though it expected inflation of 3.2% this year, the rate would miraculously drop to 1.8% in the following two years.

More hawkish members of the ECB are openly questioning these predictions, including the influential Isabel Schnabel, the German representative on the governing council. On Jan. 8, she said the transition to a greener economy would very likely mean that energy prices are unlikely to fall, as the forecasts of the ECB’s research department under uber-dove Philip Lane assume. If they only stay where they are, the ECB’s inflation predictions would be substantially higher. This pressure opens the door for rate increases, perhaps even late this year.

In the meantime, that screeching sound you hear will be the ECB slamming the brakes on balance-sheet expansion. Broadly speaking, the ECB currently has three programs: a long-standing Asset Purchase Program (APP), the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) and a third incarnation of a plan to encourage banks to lend to the real economy known as targeted longer-term refinancing operations, or TLTRO. The PEPP was launched in early 2020 to keep inflation expectations from falling, the ECB said at the time. Under this program, which is scheduled to end in March, the ECB has bought about 1.5 trillion euros of bonds. At its peak last year, the ECB’s combined purchases of bonds under the APP and the PEPP were 100 billion euros a month. Although purchases from the APP will be increased a little to help offset the end of the PEPP, direct ECB purchases will fall to 20 billion euros a month by the end of the year. Given that inflation has been so persistently high relative to its target, and short rates are still so negative, the ECB may even end the APP as early as October. Then there is TLTRO, which has allowed banks to fund themselves at up to half a percentage point less than the ECB’s deposit rate, currently -0.5%. Such funding was meant to be used for lending to the real economy, but the conditions under which banks could borrow at very cheap rates were easy to finesse. Although some institutions have simply used this program to cheapen their overall funding mix, there is little doubt others have used the money to buy government bonds, even riskier ones. Although we don’t know how much, the amount is probably large given that there are some 2.4 trillion euros of outstanding TLTRO loans. Those favorable terms run out on 1.2 trillion euros of the loans in June, and unless the terms are extended – and there is no rationale for doing so – we may soon find out just how much was used to buy riskier bonds. All things equal, the ECB’s balance sheet will probably contract by more than 1 trillion euros in June as its indirect support of bond markets diminishes.

What then? The biggest reason the ECB has been dragging its heels on ending these programs is that many on its council are frightened of what will happen to bond yields, especially those of the euro zone’s weaker members on the periphery. The central bank has said it will intervene if yield spreads widen in unjustifiable ways. With what, though? And what counts as unjustifiable? The biggest concern is Italy, both for its size (it has one of the largest government-bond markets in the world) and its debt dynamics. Under the toothless growth and stability pact, countries in the euro are required to try and cap their debt to 60% of GDP. All members have seen their ratios head sharply higher over the last couple of years, but Italy’s will have ballooned to about 155% of GDP this year, an increase of 50 percentage points since 2007. Italy’s banks, moreover, are heavily reliant on the TLTRO program for their funding, so loath are banks elsewhere to lend to them. Such is the ineffectual state of successive Italian governments that politicians have done nothing to reform either the financial system or anything much else.

With the ECB rapidly running out of a market anesthetic, some sort of crisis this year is probably unavoidable. Most countries, especially debtor countries (including France), have driven a truck through rules designed to stop free riding on their creditor counterparts. Assuming that northern European countries say that enough is enough, an awful lot of credit risk has been building up, for which investors are horribly under compensated. As the ECB steps away from the market, I would assume that this will become all too apparent and yield spreads for riskier borrowers will widen, perhaps dramatically.

There are broadly three ways in which this might be resolved. The first is for Italy to default. Since a lot of its debt is held domestically, this would essentially mean the government imposing losses on its own citizens. I’d count that as problematic. The second is for Italy to leave the euro. From an Italian perspective, this would have the advantage of imposing losses on creditor countries such as Germany via outstanding balances in the Target 2 “settlement” system. This option would make Brexit look like a playground fight.

Which perhaps leaves some sort of mutualization of existing debts, shoving them from the ECB into a debt-management office and promising to do better in the future. Former ECB president and current Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi and Emmanuel Macron, the embattled French president who is up for election in the spring, signed a joint letter just before Christmas implicitly calling for the transfer of all euro zone government debt since 2007 to such an agency. Germany would be furious with any such move. So would eastern European countries that spent years cutting debts to join the euro.

For the euro to survive, compromise of some sort will be needed. The snag is that I can’t see creditor countries agreeing until the potential pain is bad enough. And the potential pain would, I suspect, involve Italy threatening to leave the euro.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Cina, Devoluzione socialismo, India, Regno Unito, Russia, Stati Uniti

Mondo. Proiezioni delle nazioni al 2050. Il trionfo dell’oriente. – Bloomberg.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-01-04.

2022-01-01__ Proiezini GDP PPP al 2050 001

Pwc ha reso disponibile il report The World in 20250.

È un testo particolarmente lungo, per cui ne forniremo solo alcuni abstract.

* * * * * * *

«In our latest World in 2050 report we present economic growth projections for 32 of the largest economies in the world, accounting for around 84% of global GDP »

«But we expect a slowdown in global growth after 2020, as the rate of expansion in China and some other major emerging economies moderates to a more sustainable long-term rate, and as working age population growth slows in many large economies»

«China has already overtaken the US in 2014 to become the largest economy in purchasing power parity (PPP2) terms»

«In market exchange rate (MER) terms, we project China to overtake the US in 2028 despite its projected growth slowdown»

«The US could be down to third place in the global GDP rankings while the EU27’s share of world GDP could fall below 10% by 2050»

«We project new emerging economies like Mexico and Indonesia to be larger than the UK and France by 2030 (in PPP terms) while Turkey could become larger than Italy. Nigeria and Vietnam could be the fast growing large economies over the period to 2050»

«These are based on a model that takes account of projected trends in demographics, capital investment, education levels and technological progress»

«India’s share of world GDP in PPP terms could increase steadily from just under 7% in 2014 to around 13.5% in 2050»

«Our model projects that Indonesia (9th in 2014) and Brazil (7th in 2014) could rise to amongst the top 5 largest economies by 2050 in terms of GDP at PPPs»

Nota. La proiezione della EU27 deriva da un conto aggiornato.

* * * * * * *

Questa Tabella conferma sostanzialmente le precedenti.

Entro il 2050, ossia tra trenta anni, il blocco asiatico avrà a livello mondiale il predominio economico indiscusso.

Ciò che Bloomberg denomina ‘Free Economies’ altro non sarebbe che l’enclave liberal socialista occidentale, sempre poi che a tale data esista ancora. A tale data il suo spopolamento degli autoctoni sarà altamente drammatico.

L’occidente è destinato a scomparire, non tanto per la aggressività dei cinesi quanto piuttosto per la sua ideologia suicida.

Ci si metta quindi l’anima in pace. Quello delineato sarà il mondo i cui vivranno i nostri figli e nipoti.

* * * * * * *


Only 26% of World GDP to Come From Free Economies in 2050. – Bloomberg

«                       Highlights

In our latest World in 2050 report we present economic growth projections for 32 of the largest economies in the world, accounting for around 84% of global GDP.

We project the world economy to grow at an average of just over 3% per annum in the period 2014 – 50, doubling in size by 2037 and nearly tripling by 2050.

But we expect a slowdown in global growth after 2020, as the rate of expansion in China and some other major emerging economies moderates to a more sustainable long-term rate, and as working age population growth slows in many large economies.

The global economic power shift1 away from the established advanced economies in North America, Western Europe and Japan will continue over the next 35 years. China has already overtaken the US in 2014 to become the largest economy in purchasing power parity (PPP2) terms. In market exchange rate (MER) terms, we project China to overtake the US in 2028 despite its projected growth slowdown.

India has the potential to become the second largest economy in the world by 2050 in PPP terms (third in MER terms), although this requires a sustained programme of structural reforms3.

We project new emerging economies like Mexico and Indonesia to be larger than the UK and France by 2030 (in PPP terms) while Turkey could become larger than Italy. Nigeria and Vietnam could be the fast growing large economies over the period to 2050.

Colombia, Poland and Malaysia all possess great potential for sustainable long-term growth in the coming decades according to our country experts.

At the same time, recent experience has re-emphasised that relatively rapid growth is not guaranteed for emerging economies, as indicated by recent problems in Russia and Brazil, for example. It requires sustained and effective investment in infrastructure and improving political, economic, legal and social institutions. It also requires remaining open to the free flow of technology, ideas and talented people that are key drivers of economic catch-up growth.

We think that overdependence on natural resources could also impede long term growth in some countries (e.g. Russia, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia) unless they can diversify their economies.

                         Key findings: GDP projections to 2050

This report updates our long-term global economic growth projections4, which were last published in January 2013. These are based on a model that takes account of projected trends in demographics, capital investment, education levels and technological progress. We have updated both the base year data (from 2011 to 2014) and future assumptions on the key drivers of growth, as well as expanding the coverage of the model from 24 to 32 countries (now accounting for around 84% of total world GDP at PPP exchange rates).

The changing league table of world GDP in PPP terms is shown in Table 1. China is already the world’s biggest economy in PPP terms, and we project that India could have the potential to just overtake the US as the world’s second largest economy by 2050 in PPP terms (although the projected difference is small relative to the margin of uncertainty around any such projections).

We project that the gap between the three biggest economies (i.e. China, India and the US) and the rest of the world will widen over the next few decades. In 2014, the third biggest economy in PPP terms (India) is around 50% larger than the fourth biggest economy (Japan). In 2050, the third biggest economy in PPP terms (the US) is projected to be approximately 240% larger than the fourth biggest economy (Indonesia).

The rise of Indonesia and Nigeria through the world rankings throughout the period to 2050 is very striking: Indonesia rises from 9th in 2014 to 4th in 2050, and Nigeria rises from 20th in 2014 to 9th in 2050.

However, average income per capita (i.e. GDP per capita) will still be significantly higher in the advanced economies than the emerging economies in 2050. The current gap in income per capita between developing and developed countries is just too large to bridge fully over this period.»