Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Ecb. Rialzo dei tassi di interesse di almeno 50 punti base. – Kazaks.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-08-31

ECB Banca Cenrale Europea 001

La BCE ha bisogno di un rialzo deciso di almeno mezzo punto, dice Kazaks. La Banca Centrale Europea deve agire con forza e aumentare i tassi di interesse di almeno mezzo punto il mese prossimo per riportare l’inflazione sotto controllo. Secondo Kazaks, il mese prossimo sarebbe opportuno un aumento di almeno 50 punti base. I dati sull’inflazione di agosto, attesi per mercoledì, e le nuove proiezioni della BCE saranno fondamentali per determinare l’entità del rialzo. L’aumento deve essere forte e significativo e, al momento, direi 50 o 75 punti base.

I 25 membri del Consiglio direttivo della BCE sono diventati più risoluti nella loro convinzione di fare tutto ciò che è necessario, come dimostra la mossa di mezzo punto più grande del previsto al momento del rialzo a luglio. La prospettiva di un aumento significativo dei tassi solleva la questione di come la BCE remuneri l’eccesso di liquidità che le banche parcheggiano presso di lei a breve termine – una scorta che attualmente supera i 4,400 miliardi di euro (4,400 miliardi di dollari). Un problema più immediato è la debolezza dell’euro. Kazaks ha dichiarato di non essere contento di come si è mosso il tasso di cambio perché alimenta ulteriormente l’inflazione, mentre le difficoltà di approvvigionamento fanno sì che le imprese europee non possano beneficiare appieno delle esportazioni più economiche.

* * * * * * *

«ECB Needs Resolute Hike of at Least a Half-Point, Kazaks Says. The European Central Bank needs to act forcefully and raise interest rates by at least a half-point next month to bring inflation back under control. A move of at least 50 basis points would be appropriate next month, according to Kazaks. August inflation data, due Wednesday, and new ECB projections will be key in determining how big a hike is warranted. The increase needs to be strong and significant, and at the current moment, I would say 50 or 75 basis points»

«The 25 members of the ECB’s Governing Council have become more resolute in their conviction to do whatever is needed, with the bigger-than-expected half-point move at liftoff in July a prime example. The prospect of significantly higher rates raises the question of how the ECB remunerates excess cash that banks park with it in the short term — a stash that currently exceeds 4.4 trillion euros ($4.4 trillion). A more immediate problem is euro weakness. Kazaks said he’s not happy where the exchange rate has moved because it further fuels inflation, while supply snarls mean European firms can’t fully benefit from cheaper exports»

* * * * * * *


ECB Needs ‘Resolute’ Hike of at Least a Half-Point, Kazaks Says

The European Central Bank needs to act forcefully and raise interest rates by at least a half-point next month to bring inflation back under control, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

While frontloading hikes is “reasonable” as price gains near 10%, the pace at which monetary support is removed must be orderly, Kazaks said in an interview in Jackson Hole. Discussions can begin on quantitative tightening — or shrinking the ECB’s balance sheet — but action isn’t needed now, he said.

Inflation expectations “are still more or less where they should be,” the Latvian central-bank chief said, calling that “good news.” But he warned that second-round effects are becoming “more transparent and obvious,” urging a “very strong, resolute and clear-cut” response.

A move of “at least 50 basis points would be appropriate” next month, according to Kazaks. August inflation data, due Wednesday, and new ECB projections will be key in determining how big a hike is warranted.

“The increase needs to be strong and significant, and at the current moment, I would say 50 or 75 basis points,” he said.

Kazaks is the latest official to join an unfolding debate on whether the ECB should follow the Federal Reserve in deploying a three-quarter point rate increase. Governing Council members Robert Holzmann and Klaas Knot have said such a step should at least be considered, though others say an ever-likelier recession may help to tame price pressures.  

In a separate interview, Finland’s Olli Rehn said it’s “action time” for the ECB, calling for a “significant” hike on Sept. 8. Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel and France’s Francois Villeroy de Galhau urged a determined response to record euro-zone inflation that’s more than four times the 2% goal.

The 25 members of the ECB’s Governing Council have become more resolute in their conviction to do whatever is needed, with the bigger-than-expected half-point move at liftoff in July a prime example, Kazaks said. He sees rates reaching levels that neither stimulate nor constrain the economy in the first quarter, saying they could be lifted into restrictive territory if needed.

                         Determined Action

In the current, uncertain environment, he cautions against offering forward guidance, making it all the more important to understand how the ECB reacts if something happens.

“What I would very carefully monitor is inflation expectations, headline inflation, but most importantly, core inflation,” Kazaks said. That includes an awareness that “we shouldn’t rush” to retreat “if core inflation in one quarter, one month comes down.”

The prospect of significantly higher rates raises the question of how the ECB remunerates excess cash that banks park with it in the short term — a stash that currently exceeds 4.4 trillion euros ($4.4 trillion). The fear is that banks will get risk-free interest income that may impede monetary policy, while the ECB and the region’s national central banks will make losses of a similar size.

The sooner the issue is addressed “the better,” according to Kazaks, who said potential solutions could include a reverse of the tiering policy the ECB used to partially shield lenders from the effects of negative rates.

A more immediate problem is euro weakness. Kazaks said he’s “not happy where the exchange rate has moved” because it further fuels inflation, while supply snarls mean European firms can’t fully benefit from cheaper exports.

Inflation should peak this year, he said, “but of course that doesn’t mean that things will get cheap necessarily — slowing inflation doesn’t mean falling prices.”

Further ahead, the ECB must start thinking about how it will reduce the trillions of euros of bonds it bought during recent crises to aid the economy. 

“The sooner we discuss it, the better it is, but that doesn’t mean — and this is what I think the market should understand — it doesn’t mean if you discuss it today, we employ tomorrow,” Kazaks said. “The first thing we need to do is get some policy space with interest rates.”

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Germania. La fiducia delle imprese tedesche cala mentre l’economia si contrae.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-08-31.

Andrà Tutto Bene 001

L’indicatore dell’Istituto Ifo sulle aspettative delle imprese per i prossimi sei mesi è sceso a 80.3 da 80.4 di luglio, anche se gli economisti avevano previsto un calo più marcato. Anche le condizioni attuali sono state valutate più negativamente. Mentre il Paese si affretta a liberarsi dall’energia russa, le indagini congiunturali evidenziano la Germania come un punto debole all’interno della zona euro a 19 nazioni. La produzione ha iniziato a ridursi già a luglio e si è nuovamente contratta ad agosto.

Le prospettive per i prossimi mesi sono chiaramente pessimistiche, ha dichiarato il presidente dell’Ifo Clemens Fuest. L’incertezza tra le imprese rimane alta. È probabile che la produzione economica si riduca nel terzo trimestre. L’Ifo prevede una contrazione di circa lo 0.5% nei tre mesi fino a settembre, a causa della debolezza dei consumi privati. Ciò è ovviamente dovuto all’elevato tasso di inflazione che stiamo osservando in Germania, che sta chiaramente pesando sul potere d’acquisto delle famiglie. L’inflazione, nel frattempo, potrebbe raggiungere il 10% circa verso la fine dell’anno.

* * * * * * *

«The Ifo Institute’s gauge of business expectations for the next six months inched down to 80.3 from 80.4 in July, though economists had predicted a steeper decline. Current conditions were also assessed more negatively. As the country rushes to wean itself off  Russian energy, business surveys are highlighting Germany as a weak spot within the 19-nation euro zone. Output already began to shrink in July and contracted again in August»

«The outlook for the coming months is clearly pessimistic, said Ifo President Clemens Fuest. Uncertainty among companies remains high. Economic output is likely to shrink in the third quarter. Ifo expects a contraction of about 0.5% in the three months through September on weak private consumption. This is of course to do with the high inflation rate we are observing in Germany, which is clearly weighing on the purchasing power of households. Inflation, meanwhile, may reach about 10% toward year-end»

* * * * * * *


German Business Confidence Falls as Economy Already Contracting

(Bloomberg). The Ifo Institute’s gauge of business expectations for the next six months inched down to 80.3 from 80.4 in July, though economists had predicted a steeper decline. Current conditions were also assessed more negatively. Still, separate data showed that the economy proved more resilient than initially thought in the second quarter.

As the country rushes to wean itself off Russian energy, business surveys are highlighting Germany as a weak spot within the 19-nation euro zone. Output already began to shrink in July and contracted again in August, S&P Global said in a separate release earlier this week. 

The outlook for the coming months is “clearly pessimistic,” said Ifo President Clemens Fuest. “Uncertainty among companies remains high. Economic output is likely to shrink in the third quarter.”

Ifo expects a contraction of about 0.5% in the three months through September on weak private consumption, Timo Wollmershaeuser, a senior economist at the institute, told Bloomberg TV on Thursday.

The Ifo index is seeing the worst declines in the retail sector. “This is of course to do with the high inflation rate we are observing in Germany, which is clearly weighing on the purchasing power of households,” he said.

In the second quarter, a growth rate of 0.1% exceeded a preliminary estimate and helped the country narrowly escape stagnation, though it won’t do much to dispel fears over the outlook.

The expansion was driven by government expenditures, with household spending also contributing, according to a release by the statistics office on Thursday. But the headwinds to growth are getting stronger, with Russia curtailing natural gas shipments, and soaring prices menacing households and companies. 

The Bundesbank said this week that third-quarter output will more or less stagnate, while the risk of a contraction in the fourth quarter of 2022 and first quarter of 2023 has increased “considerably.” Inflation, meanwhile, may reach about 10% toward year-end. 

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Materie Prime

Polonia. Da esportatrice ad importatrice del carbone. Peggio che sotto il comunismo.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-08-30

2022-08-30__ Polonia 001

«But the main reason for the shortages is the embargo that went into immediate effect. It turned the market upside down»

«Poland ordered two state-controlled companies to import several million tons of the fuel from other sources including Indonesia, Colombia and Africa, and introduced subsidies for homeowners facing a doubling or tripling of coal prices from last winter»

«I remember the communist times but it didn’t cross my mind that we could return to something even worse»

«After Poland and the European Union imposed an embargo on Russian coal»

* * * * * * *

Nella calura polacca di fine estate, decine di auto e camion fanno la fila alla miniera di carbone Lubelski Wegiel Bogdanka, mentre i proprietari di case che temono la penuria invernale aspettano per giorni e notti di fare scorta di combustibile per il riscaldamento in code che ricordano i tempi del comunismo. Oggi sono stati installati i servizi igienici, ma non c’è acqua corrente, ha detto, dopo aver dormito per tre notti nella sua piccola utilitaria rossa, in una coda strisciante di camion, trattori che trainano rimorchi e auto private. Ricordo i tempi del comunismo, ma non mi è passato per la testa che si potesse tornare a qualcosa di ancora peggiore.

3.8 milioni di polacchi si affidano al carbone per il riscaldamento e ora si trovano ad affrontare carenze e aumenti dei prezzi, dopo che la Polonia e l’Unione Europea hanno imposto un embargo sul carbone russo. Mentre la Polonia produce ogni anno oltre 50 milioni di tonnellate dalle proprie miniere, il carbone importato, in gran parte dalla Russia, è un bene di prima necessità per le famiglie, grazie ai prezzi competitivi e al fatto che il carbone russo è venduto in pezzi più adatti all’uso domestico.

Come tutte le miniere di carbone polacche, Bogdanka vende in genere la maggior parte del carbone che produce alle centrali elettriche. L’anno scorso ha venduto meno dell’1% della sua produzione a clienti individuali, quindi non ha la logistica per vendere il combustibile direttamente agli acquirenti al dettaglio. Ma la ragione principale della carenza è l’embargo che è entrato in vigore immediatamente. Ha stravolto il mercato.

Negli ultimi anni, la Polonia è stata il critico più accanito della politica climatica dell’UE e uno strenuo difensore del carbone, che genera fino all’80% dell’elettricità. Ma la produzione di carbone è diminuita costantemente con l’aumento dei costi di estrazione a livelli più profondi. Nel 2021, la Polonia ha importato 12 milioni di tonnellate di carbone, di cui 8 milioni di tonnellate provenienti dalla Russia e utilizzate da famiglie e piccoli impianti di riscaldamento. La Polonia ha ordinato a due società controllate dallo Stato di importare diversi milioni di tonnellate di combustibile da altre fonti, tra cui Indonesia, Colombia e Africa, e ha introdotto sussidi per i proprietari di case che devono affrontare il raddoppio o la triplicazione dei prezzi del carbone rispetto allo scorso inverno.

* * * * * * *

«In Poland’s late summer heat, dozens of cars and trucks line up at the Lubelski Wegiel Bogdanka coal mine, as householders fearful of winter shortages wait for days and nights to stock up on heating fuel in queues reminiscent of communist times. Toilets were put up today, but there’s no running water,” he said, after three nights of sleeping in his small red hatchback in a crawling queue of trucks, tractors towing trailers and private cars. This is beyond imagination, people are sleeping in their cars. I remember the communist times but it didn’t cross my mind that we could return to something even worse»

«3.8 million in Poland that rely on coal for heating and now face shortages and price hikes, after Poland and the European Union imposed an embargo on Russian coal. While Poland produces over 50 million tonnes from its own mines every year, imported coal, much of it from Russia, is a household staple because of competitive prices and the fact that Russian coal is sold in lumps more suitable for home use»

«Like all Polish coal mines, Bogdanka typically sells most of the coal it produces to power plants. Last year, it sold less than 1% of its output to individual clients so lacks the logistics to sell fuel directly to retail buyers.”But the main reason for the shortages is the embargo that went into immediate effect. It turned the market upside down»

«In recent years, Poland has been the most vocal critic of EU climate policy and a staunch defender of coal that generates as much as 80% of its electricity. But coal output has steadily declined as the cost of mining at deeper levels increases. In 2021, Poland imported 12 million tonnes of coal, of which 8 million tonnes came from Russia and used by households and small heating plants. Poland ordered two state-controlled companies to import several million tons of the fuel from other sources including Indonesia, Colombia and Africa, and introduced subsidies for homeowners facing a doubling or tripling of coal prices from last winter»

* * * * * * *


In Poland, where coal is king, homeowners queue for days to buy fuel

Warsaw/Bogdanka, Aug 27 (Reuters) – In Poland’s late summer heat, dozens of cars and trucks line up at the Lubelski Wegiel Bogdanka coal mine, as householders fearful of winter shortages wait for days and nights to stock up on heating fuel in queues reminiscent of communist times.

Artur, 57, a pensioner, drove up from Swidnik, some 30 km (18 miles) from the mine in eastern Poland on Tuesday, hoping to buy several tonnes of coal for himself and his family.

“Toilets were put up today, but there’s no running water,” he said, after three nights of sleeping in his small red hatchback in a crawling queue of trucks, tractors towing trailers and private cars.

“This is beyond imagination, people are sleeping in their cars. I remember the communist times but it didn’t cross my mind that we could return to something even worse.”

Artur’s household is one of the 3.8 million in Poland that rely on coal for heating and now face shortages and price hikes, after Poland and the European Union imposed an embargo on Russian coal following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February.

Poland banned purchases with an immediate effect in April, while the bloc mandated fading them out by August.

While Poland produces over 50 million tonnes from its own mines every year, imported coal, much of it from Russia, is a household staple because of competitive prices and the fact that Russian coal is sold in lumps more suitable for home use.

Soaring demand has forced Bogdanka and other state-controlled mines to ration sales or offer the fuel to individual buyers via online platforms, in limited amounts. Artur, who did not want to give his full name, said he had collected paperwork from his extended family in the hope of picking up all their fuel allocations at once.

The mine planned to sell fuel for some 250 households on Friday and would continue sales over the weekend to cut waiting times, Dorota Choma, a spokeswoman for the Bogdanka mine told Reuters.

The limits are in place to prevent hoarding and profiteering, or even selling spots in the queue, Choma said.

Like all Polish coal mines, Bogdanka typically sells most of the coal it produces to power plants. Last year, it sold less than 1% of its output to individual clients so lacks the logistics to sell fuel directly to retail buyers.

Lukasz Horbacz, head of the Polish Coal Merchant Chamber of Commerce, said the decline in Russian imports began in January when Moscow started using rail tracks for military transport.

“But the main reason for the shortages is the embargo that went into immediate effect. It turned the market upside down,” he told Reuters.

A spokesman for the Weglokoks, a state-owned coal trader tasked by the government to boost imports from other countries declined to comment, while the climate ministry was not available for comment. Government officials have repeatedly said Poland would have enough fuel to meet demand.

In recent years, Poland has been the most vocal critic of EU climate policy and a staunch defender of coal that generates as much as 80% of its electricity. But coal output has steadily declined as the cost of mining at deeper levels increases.

Coal consumption has held mostly steady, prompting a gradual rise in imports. In 2021, Poland imported 12 million tonnes of coal, of which 8 million tonnes came from Russia and used by households and small heating plants.

In July, Poland ordered two state-controlled companies to import several million tons of the fuel from other sources including Indonesia, Colombia and Africa, and introduced subsidies for homeowners facing a doubling or tripling of coal prices from last winter.

“As much as 60% of those that use coal for heating may be affected by energy poverty,” Horbacz said.

Back at Bogdanka, Piotr Maciejewski, 61, a local farmer who joined the queue on Tuesday, said he was prepared for a long wait.

“My tractor stays in line, I’m going home to get some sleep,” he said.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Stati Uniti

Usa. I Gop avversano gli Esg. Iraconda reazione dei liberal democratici.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-08-30.

Inflazione 002

In un sistema economico e finanziario oppresso dalla inflazione tutti gli investimenti che rendono meno sono destinati a chiudere le attività.

I fondi di investimento sono i più colpiti, ed infatti molti sono falliti.

I fondi Esg patrocinano investimenti ambientali, sociali e di governance, tra i quali massimamente il cambiamento climatico, dato come assioma indiscutibile. È un problema ideologico.

La stizzosa, iraconda reazione dei liberal democratici è sequenziale.

Ma l’articolo accluso è un compendio superbo della ideologia democratica espressa secondo un stile paleo – vetero liberal, quale non si leggeva da molto tempo.

Poi, mideterm si avvicina.

* * * * * * *

I professionisti dell’investimento avvertono che una campagna repubblicana che cerca di cancellare l’ESG dalla mappa finanziaria mette a rischio i risparmi degli americani comuni che si trovano nel fuoco incrociato della politica. Gli investimenti ambientali, sociali e di governance sono ora sotto attacco nella più grande economia del mondo. Questa settimana il governatore della Florida Ron DeSantis ha vietato ai fondi pensione statali di effettuare lo screening dei rischi ESG. Il Texas sta cercando di isolare le società finanziarie che ritiene ostili all’industria dei combustibili fossili. In Arizona, il candidato repubblicano al Senato Blake Masters ha definito i punteggi ESG una minaccia esistenziale per l’America. Leggendo tra le righe, DeSantis sta dicendo che il cambiamento climatico è una questione non pecuniaria che mette a rischio i risparmi a lungo termine dei pensionati della Florida. I fondi azionari sostenibili statunitensi a grande capitalizzazione focalizzati sulla crescita sono aumentati a un tasso medio annuo del 14% nel periodo, rispetto all’11% dei fondi convenzionali non ESG.

L’idea che l’ESG sia una cospirazione di sinistra che si sta infiltrando nella vita aziendale degli Stati Uniti è difficile da conciliare con il fatto che il 69% delle principali aziende del Paese è gestito da dirigenti che si identificano come repubblicani. All’inizio di questo mese, il Controller della città di New York Brad Lander ha accusato i repubblicani di difendere gli interessi delle compagnie petrolifere in una guerra di distrazione politica.

* * * * * * *

«GOP fury over ESG triggers backlash with us pensions at risk»

«Investment professionals are warning that a Republican campaign seeking to wipe ESG off the financial map puts at risk the savings of ordinary Americans caught in the political crossfire. Environmental, social and governance investing is now under attack in the world’s largest economy. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis this week banned state pension funds from screening for ESG risks. Texas is seeking to isolate financial firms it says are hostile toward the fossil-fuel industry. And in Arizona, Republican Senate nominee Blake Masters has characterized ESG scores as an existential threat to America. “Reading between the lines, DeSantis is ultimately saying that climate change is a non-pecuniary issue putting the long-term savings of Florida pensioners at risk. US large-cap sustainable equity funds focused on growth rose at an average annual rate of 14% in the period, compared with 11% for conventional non-ESG funds»

«It is pension money that runs the most significant financial risk if they don’t take ESG into account. The notion that ESG is a left-wing conspiracy infiltrating US corporate life also is hard to square with the fact that 69% of major companies in the country are run by executives who identify as Republicans. New York City Comptroller Brad Lander earlier this month accused Republicans of defending the interests of oil companies in a war of political distraction.»

* * * * * * *


GOP Fury Over ESG Triggers Backlash With US Pensions at Risk

Investment professionals are warning that a Republican campaign seeking to wipe ESG off the financial map puts at risk the savings of ordinary Americans caught in the political crossfire.

Environmental, social and governance investing is now under attack in the world’s largest economy. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis this week banned state pension funds from screening for ESG risks. Texas is seeking to isolate financial firms it says are hostile toward the fossil-fuel industry. And in Arizona, Republican Senate nominee Blake Masters has characterized ESG scores as an existential threat to America.

The development represents a rapid escalation of aggression toward an investing form that few people even knew existed five years ago. But the finance industry, which has embraced ever more ESG products promising to address issues like climate change and inequality, is starting to strike back, arguing that Republican policies put the financial security of US savers in serious jeopardy.

“DeSantis’s decision is clearly tied to politics because it’s certainly not in the best interest of pension fund beneficiaries,” according to Bryan McGannon, director of policy and programs at US SIF, a Washington-based group that supports sustainable investment businesses. “Reading between the lines, DeSantis is ultimately saying that climate change is a non-pecuniary issue putting the long-term savings of Florida pensioners at risk. That just doesn’t make sense.”

ESG is still a relatively new investing form, and the acronym itself has only existed for less than two decades. But over the past five years, it has outperformed. US large-cap sustainable equity funds focused on growth rose at an average annual rate of 14% in the period, compared with 11% for conventional non-ESG funds, according to data provided by Morningstar Inc. ESG funds also did better when looking at global and European data from the researcher.

A study published in May by the European Securities and Markets Authority that looked at 6,528 so-called UCITS funds found that ESG generally improves returns and cuts client costs over time. ESMA found that funds focusing on the “S” in ESG tended to perform best.

Ignoring ESG may even open the door to legal liability.

“Existing US securities laws require registrants to disclose any risks that are reasonably likely to have a material impact on their business, results of operation, or financial condition,” said Ken Rivlin, head of the international environmental law group at Allen & Overy.  “Failure to disclose such material risks—including climate-related risks, if they’re material—could create a basis for liability.”

DeSantis, who’s pegged as a possible contender for the 2024 presidential election, has promised voters to “protect” them from ESG, which he has claimed threatens their economic freedom. On Tuesday, he characterized ESG as a “perversion” of financial investing.

But evidence exists that shows US voters aren’t as hostile toward efforts to fight climate change as DeSantis suggests. A Harris Poll of US savers conducted on behalf of Nuveen last year found that more than two-thirds of people asked want their employer to offer pension plans that incorporate ESG factors.

What’s more, a study by Enersection, a Houston-based data visualization firm,  shows that Republican districts are well ahead of their Democratic counterparts in targeting clean-energy projects.  And a  data analysis conducted by Bloomberg Opinion and Enersection of where renewable-energy technology gets deployed in the US shows the vast majority is in Republican-led congressional districts.

Sasja Beslik, a sustainable finance veteran who’s now the chief investment officer at NextGen ESG, described the decision by DeSantis as “tragic.”

It shows that the governor of Florida and others who share his view “don’t understand that long-term management of pension investments naturally includes material ESG issues that can impact returns,” Beslik said.

“It is pension money that runs the most significant financial risk if they don’t take ESG into account,” he said. “ESG—when done for real—is first and foremost a risk-management tool. Politicians run for four years, maybe eight. But pension money is very long term.”

The notion that ESG is a left-wing conspiracy infiltrating US corporate life also is hard to square with the fact that 69% of major companies in the country are run by executives who identify as Republicans, according to University of Oxford’s Said Business School professor Robert Eccles, who cited a paper by professors Vyacheslav Fos of Boston College, Elisabeth Kempf of Harvard Business School, and Margarita Tsoutsoura of Washington University in St. Louis.

Eccles, who’s a proponent of sustainable investing, has suggested it may be necessary to jettison the ESG label now that it’s become a target for Republicans. While the principles behind ESG are sound, it would be better—given the political climate—to change the terminology, he said.

Whatever the label, ignoring ESG risks such as a hotter planet comes at a physical cost, said Sonali Siriwardena, partner and global head of ESG at law firm Simmons & Simmons. The claim that ESG hurts returns is “short-termism at play,” she said.

“The science is now clear and we’re seeing the negative effects of climate change far earlier than predicted,” Siriwardena said.

Florida is perhaps uniquely vulnerable with a coastline exceeding 8,000 miles (12,900 kilometers). DeSantis has even acknowledged the threat, and late last year recommended more than $1.5 billion of environmental programs be earmarked to help protect the state from coastal flooding. But that may be just a tenth the amount needed given the scale of the environmental threat facing the state, according to Jesse Keenan, a professor at Tulane University in New Orleans who focuses on climate-change adaptation.

The United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that the planet might be on track for temperature increases that may be twice the limit set out in the Paris climate accord. That would result in a climate catastrophe with the potential to render much of the planet uninhabitable, with coastal areas particularly at risk.

New York City Comptroller Brad Lander earlier this month accused Republicans of defending the interests of oil companies in a “war of political distraction.”

“Being a comptroller, being a fiduciary of pension obligations for hundreds of thousands of people, you keep an eye on the long term, you pay attention to the science,” Lander said. “You make the wisest, long-term and responsible decisions you can.”

In the final months of Donald Trump’s presidency, his Department of Labor moved to adjust the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (ERISA) to require those overseeing pension and 401(k) plans to always put economic interests ahead of so-called non-pecuniary goals. It was seen as a direct attack on ESG and green investing. In January 2021, President Joe Biden included the DOL’s “Financial Factors in Selecting Plan Investments” on his list of Trump climate-related agency actions that are up for review.

“We’re still waiting for the Biden administration to officially reverse the Trump proposal,” McGannon said. As for Florida, the governor’s pronouncement will only effect state-run pension funds and not company-run retirement plans, he said.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Unione Europea

Blocco europeo. Domestic producer prices. – Eurostat. Ma di cosa blattera la gente

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-08-29.

2022-08-23_ Europe Domestic producer prices - total industry 001

«The industrial domestic output price index measures the average price development of all goods and related services resulting from the activity of the industry sector and sold on the domestic market. The domestic output price index shows the monthly development of transaction prices of economic activities. The domestic market is defined as customers resident in the same national territory as the observation unit. Data are compiled according to the Statistical classification of economic activities in the European Community, (NACE Rev. 2, Eurostat). Industrial producer prices are compiled as a “fixed base year Laspeyres type price-index”. The current base year is 2015 (Index 2015 =100). Indexes, as well as both growth rates with respect to the previous month (M/M-1) and with respect to the corresponding month of the previous year (M/M-12) are presented in raw form.» [data.europa.eu]

Nella Tabella riportata i dati sono espressi come M/M-12.

* * *

A giugno 2022 i prezzi di produzione sono aumentati del 35.8% nella eurozona e del 36.1% nella Unione europea a 27 stati membri.

Tranne Malta, 9.2%, e la Svizzera, 7.9%, le altre nazioni si attestano in termini medi attorno al 30%.

Questi valori inflattivi sono insostenibili ed obbligano la banca centrale a continuare a soccorrere i debiti pubblici lasciando l’inflazione libera di flagellare il blocco.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Geopolitica Asiatica, Stati Uniti

Isole Solomon. Negano attracco e rifornimento ad un guardiacoste americano.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-08-29.

2022-08-28__ isole solomon 001

Le posizioni politiche delle Isole Solomon sono ben note.

Samoa. Dopo gli accordi con le Isole Solomon Pechino ratifica un accordo con Samoa.

Cina. Raduna in riunione le Isole del Pacifico ma il consenso totale sarebbe prematuro.

Scacchiere del Pacifico. Cina ed Australia si confrontano per aumentare la loro influenza politica.

Isole Salomone. Sono entrate nel patrocinio politico e militare della Cina.

Cina, Taiwan ed Isole Salomone. La mutazione è iniziata.

Cina alla conquista dell’Oceano Pacifico.

Solomon Islands breaks ties with Taiwan after Chinese ‘dollar diplomacy’

Taiwan president condemns China’s ‘dollar diplomacy’ as Solomon Islands switches allegiance to Beijing.

Questa nuova débâcle di Joe Biden segna la tappa epocale della perdita di controllo delle UN.

Guerra sinoamericana sui cavi internet e telefonici sottomarini. Il cavo ‘Peace’.

Solomon Islands breaks ties with Taiwan after Chinese ‘dollar diplomacy’

Nessun stupore quindi che una nave della Guardia Costiera degli Stati Uniti non sia potuta entrare nelle Isole Salomone per uno scalo di routine.

* * * * * * *

Una nave della Guardia Costiera degli Stati Uniti non è potuta entrare nelle Isole Salomone per uno scalo di routine perché il governo delle Isole Salomone non ha risposto alla richiesta di rifornimento e approvvigionamento.

Le Isole Salomone hanno un rapporto teso con gli Stati Uniti e i loro alleati da quando, a maggio, hanno stretto un patto di sicurezza con la Cina. Il governo delle Salomone e Pechino hanno escluso una base militare cinese sulle isole, anche se una bozza trapelata mostra che l’accordo di sicurezza consentirebbe alla marina cinese di attraccare e rifornirsi.

L’USCGC Oliver Henry era di pattuglia per la pesca illegale nel Pacifico meridionale per conto di un’agenzia regionale per la pesca quando non è riuscito ad ottenere l’ingresso per il rifornimento a Honiara, la capitale delle Salomone. La nave statunitense è stata dirottata in Papua Nuova Guinea. I programmi delle navi sono sottoposti a costante revisione ed è prassi che cambino.

* * * * * * *

«A United States Coast Guard vessel was unable to enter Solomon Islands for a routine port call because the Solomon Islands government did not respond to a request for it to refuel and provision»

«The Solomon Islands has had a tense relationship with the United States and its allies since striking a security pact with China in May. The Solomons’ government and Beijing have ruled out a Chinese military base on the islands, although a leaked draft showed the security agreement would allow the Chinese navy to dock and replenish»

«The USCGC Oliver Henry was on patrol for illegal fishing in the South Pacific for a regional fisheries agency when it failed to obtain entry to refuel at Honiara, the Solomons’ capital. The U.S. vessel was diverted to Papua New Guinea instead. Ships’ programmes are under constant review, and it is routine practice for them to change.»

* * * * * * *


U.S. coastguard vessel unable to refuel in Solomon Islands – official

Sydney, Aug 26 (Reuters) – A United States Coast Guard vessel was unable to enter Solomon Islands for a routine port call because the Solomon Islands government did not respond to a request for it to refuel and provision, a U.S. official said.

The islands’ government did not immediately answer a Reuters request for comment. The Solomon Islands has had a tense relationship with the United States and its allies since striking a security pact with China in May.  

The USCGC Oliver Henry was on patrol for illegal fishing in the South Pacific for a regional fisheries agency when it failed to obtain entry to refuel at Honiara, the Solomons’ capital, a U.S. Coast Guard press officer told Reuters in an emailed statement.

The U.S. vessel was diverted to Papua New Guinea instead, the official said.

The British navy declined to comment on social media reports that patrol vessel HMS Spey, also taking part in Operation Island Chief to monitor for illegal fishing in the economic exclusion zones of Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu, was declined port access by the Solomon Islands.

“Ships’ programmes are under constant review, and it is routine practice for them to change. For reasons of operational security we do not discuss details,” a Royal Navy spokesman said in an emailed statement.

The Solomons’ government and Beijing have ruled out a Chinese military base on the islands, although a leaked draft showed the security agreement would allow the Chinese navy to dock and replenish.

The fisheries agency for the Pacific Islands Forum, a block of 17 Pacific nations, has a maritime surveillance centre in Honiara, and holds annual surveillance operations for illegal fishing with assistance from Australia, United States, New Zealand and France.  

The USCGC Oliver Henry was scheduled for a routine logistics port call in the Solomon Islands, Kristin Kam, public affairs officer for the U.S. Coast Guard in Hawaii told Reuters in an emailed statement.

“The Government of the Solomon Islands did not respond to the U.S. Government’s request for diplomatic clearance for the vessel to refuel and provision in Honiara,” she said.

“The U.S. Department of State is in contact with the Government of the Solomon Islands and expect all future clearances will be provided to U.S. ships,” she added.

HMS Spey had Fiji navy officers on board as it worked alongside long-range maritime patrol aircraft from Australia and New Zealand and the US Coast Guard in the operation to gather information for the Pacific Islands Forum fisheries agency, the Royal Navy said in a statement on Thursday.

It carried out inspections of suspect vessels in ports as well as boardings at sea, the statement said.

The Royal Navy spokesman said it “looks forward to visiting the Solomon Islands at a later date”.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

Usa. Powel gela gli ottimismi. La lotta alla inflazione è prioritaria. Costi quel che costi.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-08-28.

2022-08-29__ Bull Cases Were Coming True Before Powell 001

«It is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth and a rise in unemployment»

«Mutual funds have raised their money holdings on the quickest price because the world monetary disaster, whereas fairness publicity amongst hedge funds hovers close to a two-year low»

«But Powell made it clear that company income and joyful shoppers aren’t his company’s precedence»

«Consumers nonetheless flush with money stay optimistic»

* * * * * * *

Qualcosa di insolito si è verificato per le più grandi argomentazioni dei tori dell’inventario, perché il mercato è crollato nella sua peggiore settimana da giugno: Si sono rivelati corretti. Le aziende americane si stanno divertendo con i margini di guadagno più consistenti degli ultimi sette anni. I consumatori, ancora pieni di soldi, rimangono ottimisti. Insieme, sarebbe stato eccessivo per Jerome Powell, una persona che senza dubbio si oppone alla fiducia del mercato mentre combatte l’inflazione. Il suo avvertimento senza mezzi termini di venerdì, secondo il quale il sistema economico può soffrire nella battaglia, ha mandato le azioni in tilt.

L’S&P 500 è crollato di oltre il 3% dopo che il presidente della Federal Reserve ha detto che potrebbero essere giustificati ulteriori rialzi di dimensioni gigantesche e che i prezzi rimarranno elevati finché l’inflazione non si attenuerà. Per abbassare i costi è probabile che sia necessario un periodo prolungato di crescita inferiore al trend e un aumento della disoccupazione.

Il feedback, indubbiamente voluto, ha frenato i tori, la cui spavalderia era diventata una priorità per i responsabili delle coperture, intenzionati a domare un’impennata generazionale dei costi. Il mercato era inopportunamente ottimista sul fatto che la Fed sarebbe stata in grado di essere più dovish oggi e nel corso dei prossimi sei-dodici mesi. L’S&P 500 è sceso del 4% in 5 giorni, segnando la peggiore settimana da quando il mercato orso ha raggiunto il suo nadir. Le azioni tecnologiche hanno perso il 5.6% nell’intervallo. Quasi tutto il danno è arrivato venerdì, quando una settimana estiva svogliata è diventata torrida dopo una discussione di otto minuti che ha visto Powell prendere di mira direttamente l’ottimismo del mercato.

I fondi comuni di investimento hanno aumentato le loro disponibilità monetarie al ritmo più rapido da quando è scoppiato il disastro monetario mondiale, mentre la pubblicità azionaria tra gli hedge fund è vicina ai minimi da due anni a questa parte. Ma Powell ha chiarito che il reddito delle aziende e la gioia degli acquirenti non sono la priorità della sua azienda, e se i problemi si ripercuotono su queste aree, è un valore che apparentemente è pronto ad accettare: un’inversione di rotta per un istituto finanziario centrale che per anni è stato il più grande alleato del mercato. Powell ci sta dicendo che fino a quando non ci sarà una conferma sostanziale del rallentamento dell’aumento dei prezzi, la Fed terrà il piede sul freno. Con la Fed che continua ad aumentare in modo aggressivo, è probabile che gli utili subiscano un ulteriore ribasso nella seconda metà dell’anno, facendo apparire il mercato ancora più costoso, a parità di altre condizioni.

* * * * * * *

«Something unusual occurred to the inventory bull’s greatest arguments because the market slumped to its worst week since June: They turned out to be proper. Corporate America is having fun with the fattest revenue margins in seven many years. Consumers, nonetheless flush with money, stay optimistic. Together, it would’ve been an excessive amount of for Jerome Powell — a person who doubtless opposes market confidence as he fights inflation. His blunt warning Friday that the economic system can be a sufferer within the battle despatched shares right into a tailspin.»

«The S&P 500 plunged greater than 3% after the Federal Reserve chair mentioned extra jumbo-sized hikes could also be warranted and charges will stay elevated till inflation eases. Bringing down costs “is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth” and a rise in unemployment»

«The feedback, doubtlessly by design, hobbled bulls whose swagger itself had change into a priority for coverage makers intent on taming a generational surge in costs. The market was inappropriately optimistic that the Fed was going to be able to be more dovish today and over the course of the next six to 12 months. The S&P 500 dropped 4% within the 5 days for its worst week because the bear market reached its nadir. Tech shares misplaced 5.6% within the interval. Virtually all the injury got here Friday, when a listless summer season week turned torrid after an eight-minute coverage discuss that noticed Powell take direct goal at market optimism»

«Mutual funds have raised their money holdings on the quickest price because the world monetary disaster, whereas fairness publicity amongst hedge funds hovers close to a two-year low. But Powell made it clear that company income and joyful shoppers aren’t his company’s precedence, and if hassle redounds to these areas then that’s a worth he’s apparently prepared to simply accept — a job reversal for a central financial institution that for years was the market’s largest ally. Powell is telling us that until we see substantial confirmation of slowing price increases, the Fed will keep its foot on the brakes. With the Fed continuing to hike aggressively, earnings are likely to see further downside in the back half of the year, making the market look even more expensive, all else equal»

* * * * * * *


Bull Cases Were Coming True Before Powell Warnings Wallop Stocks

(Bloomberg) — Something unusual occurred to the inventory bull’s greatest arguments because the market slumped to its worst week since June: They turned out to be proper.

Corporate America is having fun with the fattest revenue margins in seven many years. Consumers, nonetheless flush with money, stay optimistic. Together, it would’ve been an excessive amount of for Jerome Powell — a person who doubtless opposes market confidence as he fights inflation. His blunt warning Friday that the economic system can be a sufferer within the battle despatched shares right into a tailspin.

The S&P 500 plunged greater than 3% after the Federal Reserve chair mentioned extra jumbo-sized hikes could also be warranted and charges will stay elevated till inflation eases. Bringing down costs “is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth” and a rise in unemployment, Powell mentioned on the Kansas City Fed’s annual coverage discussion board in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

The feedback, doubtlessly by design, hobbled bulls whose swagger itself had change into a priority for coverage makers intent on taming a generational surge in costs. Stocks had surged since June on hypothesis the Fed would start chopping charges subsequent yr. Those bets pale as buyers retrenched for an financial slowdown that is likely to be extra annoying than beforehand anticipated. Treasury yields have been little modified, doubtless capped by buyers in search of refuge in authorities bonds.

“The market was inappropriately optimistic that the Fed was going to be able to be more dovish today and over the course of the next six to 12 months,” mentioned Phil Orlando, chief fairness market strategist at Federated Hermes. “Powell dissuaded the market from believing that, and we think stocks should go lower, materially lower.”

The S&P 500 dropped 4% within the 5 days for its worst week because the bear market reached its nadir. Tech shares misplaced 5.6% within the interval. Virtually all the injury got here Friday, when a listless summer season week turned torrid after an eight-minute coverage discuss that noticed Powell take direct goal at market optimism.

The inventory features have been, by Powell’s personal admission, an issue for coverage makers, who’re monitoring whether or not measures of stress throughout belongings — generally known as monetary circumstances — are “appropriately tight” for bringing down inflation. Stocks had added as a lot as $7 trillion in values from June lows and 10-year Treasury yields had slipped from multiyear highs as buyers grew extra assured any recession can be quick and delicate.

“It would not be too much of a stretch to call this an ‘anti-pivot’ speech,” Evercore ISI analysts Krishna Guha and Peter Williams wrote in a word. “Pivot optimism seems to have lingered longest in equities amid rising hopes for a risk-friendly reaction function when trade-offs emerge –- setting stocks up for a larger move lower on the day.”

While simple to overlook amid the flurry of hypothesis forward of Powell’s flip in Wyoming, these market optimists had gotten appreciable affirmation for views that had beforehand been ridiculed — that earnings don’t essentially get crushed by inflation, and that shopper sentiment isn’t on a one-way journey to the cellar.

In reality, a measure of US revenue margins reached its widest since 1950, suggesting that the costs charged by companies are outpacing their elevated prices for manufacturing and labor, authorities knowledge confirmed this week. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan’s last sentiment index for August climbed greater than anticipated as year-ahead inflation expectations eased.

For these nursing wounds Friday, it could be minor recompense, however they could possibly be developments bulls monitor carefully as soon as the rapid implications from Powell’s speech fade. After all, from inventory pickers to fast-money merchants, nearly everybody has hunkered down by lowering inventory positions to under longer-term norms.

Mutual funds have raised their money holdings on the quickest price because the world monetary disaster, whereas fairness publicity amongst hedge funds hovers close to a two-year low, knowledge compiled by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. present.

“Liquidity is not great and trading desks are not fully staffed, so it’s tough to read too much into the immediate price action,” mentioned Zachary Hill, head of portfolio administration at Horizon Investment. “When desks are fully staffed after Labor Day, the market setup could look a good bit different than it does today.”

But Powell made it clear that company income and joyful shoppers aren’t his company’s precedence, and if hassle redounds to these areas then that’s a worth he’s apparently prepared to simply accept — a job reversal for a central financial institution that for years was the market’s largest ally.

“Powell is telling us that until we see substantial confirmation of slowing price increases, the Fed will keep its foot on the brakes,” mentioned Kara Murphy, chief funding officer at Kestra Holdings. “With the Fed continuing to hike aggressively, earnings are likely to see further downside in the back half of the year, making the market look even more expensive, all else equal.”

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Regno Unito

Regno Unito. Inflazione. Prevista al 18% ed al 21% nel primo trimestre 2023.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-08-27.

2022-08-24__ Citi UK inflation 001

In una nota di ricerca di domenica, il colosso bancario statunitense ha aggiornato le sue previsioni per l’indice dei prezzi al consumo e l’indice dei prezzi al dettaglio rispettivamente al 18% e al 21% nel primo trimestre del 2023. L’ente regolatore dell’energia Ofgem annuncerà questa settimana l’entità del prossimo aumento del tetto dei prezzi a partire dal 1° ottobre, e Citi prevede un aumento a 3,717 sterline all’anno (4,389 dollari) dalle attuali 1,971 sterline per una famiglia media.

L’inflazione nel Regno Unito è destinata a superare il 18% a gennaio, mentre il tetto dei prezzi dell’energia entra nella stratosfera. Il colosso bancario statunitense ha aggiornato le sue previsioni per l’indice dei prezzi al consumo e l’indice dei prezzi al dettaglio rispettivamente al 18% e al 21% nel primo trimestre del 2023.

L’ente regolatore dell’energia Ofgem annuncerà questa settimana l’entità del prossimo aumento del tetto dei prezzi a partire dal 1° ottobre, e Citi prevede un aumento a 3,717 sterline all’anno (4,389 dollari) dalle attuali 1,971 sterline per una famiglia media. Il price cap limita essenzialmente l’importo che un fornitore può addebitare per le sue tariffe, ma questo limite è aumentato di recente a causa dell’aumento dei prezzi all’ingrosso, il che significa che i britannici hanno visto le bollette salire alle stelle.

La società di ricerche di mercato Cornwall Insight ha recentemente previsto che il tetto massimo sarebbe salito a 4,266 sterline a gennaio, mentre la società di consulenza Auxilione ha previsto la scorsa settimana che avrebbe superato le 6,000 sterline entro la primavera. Ci aspettiamo ulteriori aumenti a 4,567 sterline a gennaio e poi a 5,816 sterline ad aprile.

All’inizio del mese la Banca d’Inghilterra ha aumentato i tassi di interesse di 50 punti base, il più grande aumento singolo dal 1995, e ha previsto la più lunga recessione del Regno Unito dalla crisi finanziaria globale. Ha inoltre previsto che l’inflazione raggiungerà un picco del 13.3% in ottobre.

* * * * * * *

«In a research note dated Sunday, the U.S. banking giant updated its forecasts for the consumer price index and retail price index to 18% and 21%, respectively, in the first quarter of 2023. Energy regulator Ofgem will this week announce the scale of the next price cap increase from Oct. 1, and Citi expects a rise to £3,717 per year ($4,389) from the current £1,971 for an average household.»

«U.K. inflation is on course to exceed 18% in January as the country’s energy price cap enters the stratosphere. The U.S. banking giant updated its forecasts for the consumer price index and retail price index to 18% and 21%, respectively, in the first quarter of 2023»

«Energy regulator Ofgem will this week announce the scale of the next price cap increase from Oct. 1, and Citi expects a rise to £3,717 per year ($4,389) from the current £1,971 for an average household. The price cap essentially limits the amount a supplier can charge for their tariffs, but this limit has surged higher recently due to the rise in wholesale prices — meaning Brits have seen bills skyrocket.»

«Market research firm Cornwall Insight recently predicted that the cap would rise to £4,266 in January, while consultancy firm Auxilione forecast last week that it would exceed £6,000 by the spring. We expect further increases to £4,567 in January and then £5,816 in April»

«The Bank of England earlier this month hiked interest rates by 50 basis points, its largest single increase since 1995, and projected the U.K.’s longest recession since the global financial crisis. It also forecast that inflation would peak at 13.3% in October.»

* * * * * * *


Citi projects UK inflation to breach 18% in January as energy prices skyrocket

– In a research note dated Sunday, the U.S. banking giant updated its forecasts for the consumer price index and retail price index to 18% and 21%, respectively, in the first quarter of 2023.

– Energy regulator Ofgem will this week announce the scale of the next price cap increase from Oct. 1, and Citi expects a rise to £3,717 per year ($4,389) from the current £1,971 for an average household.

* * * * * * *

London — U.K. inflation is on course to exceed 18% in January as the country’s energy price cap enters the stratosphere, Citi economists are projecting.

In a research note dated Sunday, the U.S. banking giant updated its forecasts for the consumer price index and retail price index to 18% and 21%, respectively, in the first quarter of 2023. This is based on the assumption of a £300 policy offset applied to household energy bills from October through to 2024.

Energy regulator Ofgem will this week announce the scale of the next price cap increase from Oct. 1, and Citi expects a rise to £3,717 per year ($4,389) from the current £1,971 for an average household. The price cap essentially limits the amount a supplier can charge for their tariffs, but this limit has surged higher recently due to the rise in wholesale prices — meaning Brits have seen bills skyrocket.

Market research firm Cornwall Insight recently predicted that the cap would rise to £4,266 in January, while consultancy firm Auxilione forecast last week that it would exceed £6,000 by the spring.

Benjamin Nabarro, senior associate in the global strategy and macro group at Citi, said guidance on future increases would be the most notable aspect of this week’s announcement.

“We expect further increases to £4,567 in January and then £5,816 in April. The risks here remain skewed to the upside,” Nabarro said.

The key question now is how government policy might impact both inflation and the real economy after a new prime minister takes office on Sept. 5. Comments so far from Conservative leadership favorite Liz Truss point to only a “limited offset” for headline inflation, he suggested.

“We already account for a £300 reduction in bills associated with the suspension of the Green Levy and a cut to VAT on household energy bills,” Nabarro said.

“However, in reality any government response to this is likely to involve substantially more fiscal firepower (around £40bn in our view). Offsetting the energy increase in full would cost around £30bn for the coming six months (1.4% GDP).”

The issue for inflation, he added, is that any fiscal space deployed is likely to be squeezed between weaker medium-term forecasts and the new government’s desire to cut taxes, meaning disinflationary measures are “likely somewhat further down the pecking order.”

The Bank of England earlier this month hiked interest rates by 50 basis points, its largest single increase since 1995, and projected the U.K.’s longest recession since the global financial crisis. It also forecast that inflation would peak at 13.3% in October.

Citi now expects a further 125 basis points of monetary tightening at the coming three meetings of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee. U.K. inflation hit 10.1% annually in July and is increasingly expected to exceed the MPC’s latest projections.

“Even with the economy softening, last week’s data re-affirmed the continued risk of pass-through from headline inflation into wage and domestic price setting could accelerate,” Nabarro said.

“With inflation now set to peak substantially higher than the 13% forecast in August, we expect the MPC will conclude the risks surrounding more persistent inflation have intensified.”

This would mean taking rates into restrictive territory quickly, and Citi anticipates that should signs of more embedded inflation emerge, a benchmark lending rate of between 6% and 7% will be necessary to get inflation under control. The current bank rate is 1.75%.

“For now though, we continue to think evidence for such effects are limited – with increases in
unemployment still more likely to allow the MPC to pause around the turn of the year,” Nabarro added.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Problemia Energetici, Stati Uniti

Usa. 20 milioni di famiglie non pagano le bollette e sono staccati dalla corrente.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-08-27.

2022-08-26__ 20 Million US Homes Are Behind on Energy Bills 001

«People on the bottom, they can’t pay their electricity bills»

«Le famiglie in difficoltà non riescono a pagare le bollette della elettricità»

I media di regime possono dire e scrivere ciò che vogliono, mentendo, ma la dura realtà è che 20 milioni di famiglie sono nei triboli non avendo i mezzi per pagare le bollette della corrente elettrica e vengono staccati dal servizio.

* * * * * * *

Almeno 20 milioni di famiglie, ovvero circa 1 famiglia americana su 6, sono in ritardo con le bollette dell’energia elettrica a causa dell’impennata dei prezzi dell’elettricità che ha scatenato quella che si dice essere la peggiore crisi di sempre nei ritardi di pagamento delle utenze.

La Neada (National Energy Assistance Directors Association) ha dichiarato che i prezzi dell’elettricità sono aumentati in modo significativo dal 2020, dopo un decennio di stagnazione. Il forte aumento ha portato a miliardi di dollari di bollette scadute.  L’inflazione dell’elettricità è alimentata dall’impennata dei costi dei combustibili fossili, come il gas naturale, il carbone e il petrolio. Il gas naturale alimenta circa il 40% della rete elettrica statunitense e martedì è salito ai livelli più alti dal 2008.

L’elettricità continua a salire a un ritmo vertiginoso del 30% su base annua. [Neada] ha avvertito di uno tsunami di interruzioni di corrente mentre l’inflazione più alta degli ultimi quarant’anni divora i salari e ha devastato finanziariamente i lavoratori poveri. [Essa[ Ha ricevuto un ultimo avviso dalla compagnia elettrica Xcel Energy Inc. che ha staccato la elettricità al suo monolocale di Minneapolis mentre le temperature si avvicinavano alle tre cifre. Le spese per le utenze sono raddoppiate nell’ultimo anno, mentre i prezzi di cibo, alloggio e gas sono saliti alle stelle.

* * * * * * *

«At least 20 million households — or about 1 in 6 American homes — are behind on their power bills as soaring electricity prices spark what is said to be the worst-ever crisis in late utility payments»

«Neada (National Energy Assistance Directors Association) said electricity prices had increased significantly since 2020 after a decade of stagnation. The steep rise has resulted in billions of dollars in overdue power bills. 

Electricity inflation is being propelled by soaring costs of fossil fuels, such as natural gas, coal, and petroleum. NatGas fuels about 40% of the US power grid and soared to the highest levels since 2008 on Tuesday.»

«Electricity continues to rise to a blistering 30% year on year. Warned of a tsunami of shutoff as the highest inflation in forty years eats away wages and has financially devastated the working poor. [She] received a final notice from power company Xcel Energy Inc., who turned off the electricity to her studio apartment in Minneapolis as temperatures approached near triple digits. Utility expenses that have doubled over the past year as food, shelter, and gas prices have also skyrocketed.»

* * * * * * *


A ‘Tsunami of Shutoffs’: 20 Million US Homes Are Behind on Energy Bills

“Tsunami Of Shutoffs”: 20 Million US Homes Are Behind On Power Bills

At least 20 million households — or about 1 in 6 American homes — are behind on their power bills as soaring electricity prices spark what is said to be the worst-ever crisis in late utility payments, according to Bloomberg, citing data from the National Energy Assistance Directors Association (Neada).

Neada said electricity prices had increased significantly since 2020 after a decade of stagnation. The steep rise has resulted in billions of dollars in overdue power bills.  

Electricity inflation is being propelled by soaring costs of fossil fuels, such as natural gas, coal, and petroleum.

NatGas fuels about 40% of the US power grid and soared to the highest levels since 2008 on Tuesday. 

The chart below shows for the two decades, real electricity prices were relatively flat, except for the commodity boom times around the 2008 GFC. Now CPI less energy has peaked, though electricity continues to rise to a blistering 30% y

year on year. 

Jean Su, a senior attorney at the Center for Biological Diversity, which tracks utility disconnections across the US, warned of a “tsunami of shutoff” as the highest inflation in forty years eats away wages and has financially devastated the working poor.  

Adrienne Nice is one of those struggling Americans who is more than $3,000 behind on utility bills. Last month, she received a “final notice” from power company Xcel Energy Inc., who turned off the electricity to her studio apartment in Minneapolis as temperatures approached near triple digits. 

Nice found it near impossible to save money for utility expenses that have doubled over the past year as food, shelter, and gas prices have also skyrocketed. Her low-paying job as a housecleaner has left her in energy poverty. 

Readers know that low-tier consumers are financially tapped out. They’ve maxed out credit cards, depleted savings, and have seen wage gains wiped out due to inflation. It comes as no surprise the US is becoming more like Europe, where energy poverty has doomed millions of households. 

It’s only a matter of time before the Biden administration starts handing out stimmy checks for electricity bills.