Czechia. Elezioni politiche. Previsioni elettorali.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2023-06-27

Nei prossimi anni si terranno le elezioni politiche in Czechia e gli attuali sondaggi prevedrebbero un ritorno quasi certo di Mr Andrej Babiš.

A quell’epoca il Consiglio europeo sarà tutto di destra ed i liberal socialisti quasi scomparsi, così come i Grüne.

No liberal, no brogli.

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The next Czech parliamentary election will be held in or before October 2025. All 200 members of the Chamber of Deputies of the Czech Republic will be elected and the leader of the resultant government will become the Prime Minister.

Background

The 2021 parliamentary elections saw the conservative alliance Spolu (consisting of the Civic Democratic Party (ODS), KDU-ČSL and TOP 09) finish first with 27.8% of the vote. ANO 2011 finished second and liberal alliance Pirates and Mayors third. Freedom and Direct Democracy was the only other party to win seats. Spolu formed a government with Pirates and Mayors with ODS leader Petr Fiala as Prime Minister.

Soon after the 2021 elections, the leader of the Mayors and Independents, Vit Rakušan, said that his party would run in the next elections as a single party rather than continue their alliance with the Pirate Party. According to internal Pirate Party analysis, the Mayors violated their joint agreement by asking their voters to give their candidates preference votes on the joint list, which resulted in just four Pirate MPs being elected.

On 8 February 2023, Babiš announced he would limit his role within ANO 2011. He would remain as an MP and the leader of the party, while Karel Havlíček and Alena Schillerová would become the primary faces of the party, with Havlíček becoming leader of the shadow cabinet. Babiš described Havlíček as a future prime minister of the Czech Republic.

On 23 February 2023, Jiří Paroubek launched the initiative Nespokojení (Dissatisfied), with the aim of connecting parties on the left of the political spectrum before the 2024 European elections and next parliamentary elections.

Conflitto Nato Russia. Situazione al 2023-06-24. Mappe aggiornate.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2023-06-24.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 23, 2023

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin appears to have launched an armed rebellion on June 23 to force a leadership change within the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) which is unlikely to succeed. Prigozhin amplified a video from a Wagner-affiliated Telegram channel on June 23 which reportedly shows the aftermath of a missile strike on a rear-area Wagner camp and accused the Russian MoD of conducting that strike.[1] ISW cannot independently verify the veracity of the video, and it may have been manufactured for informational purposes. Prigozhin used the video to then justify his most explicit rhetorical escalation against the Russian MoD to date and a call for action against the Russian MoD. Prigozhin claimed that the Wagner Commanders’ Council made the decision to stop “the evil brought by the military leadership” who neglect and destroy the lives of tens of thousands of Russian soldiers.[2] Prigozhin urged the Russian people not to resist, to remain calm, remain in their homes, and warned that Wagner will “deal” with those who destroyed Russian soldiers before returning to the frontlines in Ukraine after restoring justice for all. Prigozhin also notably accused Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu of personally planning an operation to destroy Wagner and claimed that 25,000 Wagner personnel are prepared to act.[3] Prigozhin later posted an audio message qualifying his previous statements and claiming that there is no “coup,” only a “march for justice.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Conflitto russo Nato contro Russia. Situazione al 2023-06-22.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2023-06-22.

Ukraine war live updates: Putin says new nuclear missiles ready to deploy soon; West pledges billions to help rebuild Ukraine.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2023-06-22.

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International leaders, officials and investors are in London on Wednesday for a two-day “Ukraine Recovery Conference” focused on drumming up funding for Ukraine’s reconstruction once the war ends.

Addressing the conference virtually, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said “there is currently no place in the world where there is a need to construct and rebuild as many objects as in Ukraine. Every new day of Russian aggression, brings new ruins. Thousands, thousands and thousands of destroyed houses, devastated industries, burned lives,” he said.

The U.K. pledged a new package of financial support for Ukraine, including $3 billion of World Bank loan guarantees while the U.S. promised $1.3 billion to help it overhaul its energy grid and modernize its ports, railways and other infrastructure. The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU would provide Ukraine with 50 billion euros ($54.5 billion) for 2024-27.

In other news, Russia’s Ministry of Defense claimed Wednesday that it intercepted three Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles on their approach toward “objects” in the Moscow region. 

Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced an additional $1.3 billion for Ukraine’s reconstruction efforts while attending the Ukraine Recovery Conference hosted by Kyiv and London.

“Every investment that we make in Ukraine’s recovery is aimed at bringing Ukrainians closer to that reality,” Blinken said during an address at the InterContinental Hotel in London.

Blinken said the U.S. is ready to invest more than $520 million to help Ukraine overhaul its energy infrastructure, adding that Russian shelling has destroyed more than half of the country’s critical power grid.

“We’ll support Ukraine’s energy market reforms to combat monopolies and to spur more private investment, which will enable Ukraine one day to become a major energy exporter,” Blinken said.

In addition, President Joe Biden’s top diplomat said the U.S. will provide $657 million to help modernize Ukrainian rail lines and ports and another $100 million toward upgrading Ukraine’s customs programs.

                         EU approves 11th round of sanctions against Russia

The European Union has approved its 11th sanctions package against Russia over its war in Ukraine.

Sweden, in its role as president of the EU, tweeted out the news Wednesday, saying “The package includes measures aimed at countering sanctions circumvention and individual listings.”

President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen said the move will “deal a further blow to Putin’s war machine with tightened export restrictions, targeting entities supporting the Kremlin.”

                         No ships have left Ukrainian ports in past two days as expiry of Black Sea grain deal looms

No ships carrying agricultural products have left Ukrainian ports under the Black Sea Grain Initiative in the past two days, according to the U.N.-backed organization responsible for collecting export data.

The Black Sea grain deal was brokered between Ukraine, Russia, the United Nations and Turkey in July 2022 and faces expiry next month. The agreement established a humanitarian sea corridor for agricultural products for global destinations.

                         Putin downplays Ukraine’s counteroffensive

Russian President Vladimir Putin downplayed Ukraine’s counteroffensive, saying Moscow had seen a “lull” in action and that Kyiv was seeing heavy losses, according to comments reported by Reuters that cited Russian news agency Interfax.

Ukraine could lose its fighting capacity as a result of those purported losses, Putin claimed, adding that Kyiv already understood that it had “no chance” in its counteroffensive.

America in agonia. Sempre più isolata e guardata in cagnesco. Lei, il dollaro e le sue guerre.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2023-06-05.

Per oltre settanta anni gli Stati Uniti hanno finanziato il proprio welfare ricorrendo al debito, pagato dall’estero.

Ora la pacchia è finita. Con l’accordo Biden McCarty il debito ha un tetto massimo e la inflazione stritola i poveracci.

Non solo!

I paesi dell’Opec, Algeria, Angola, Arabia Saudita, Guinea Equatoriale, Emirati Arabi Uniti, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libia, Nigeria, Rep. del Congo, Venezuela, sono strettamente uniti al blocco euroasiatico capeggiato da Russia e Cina.

L’America non ha alcun paese amico nell’Opec i cui paesi membri guardano con astio crescente gli Stati Uniti e rifiutano l’uso del dollaro.

Petrolio, accordo Opec per estendere tagli produzione fino al 2024

04 giugno 2023.

«L’Opec ha raggiunto un accordo per estendere i tagli alla produzione di petrolio fino al 2024.

Lo riporta l’agenzia Bloomberg. Il nuovo target di produzione è stato fissato a 40,46 milioni di barili al giorno. “L’estensione dei tagli assicura la stabilità del mercato”, ha commentato Alexander Novak, il vice primo ministro russo incaricato per le risorse energetiche, sottolineando che non c’è stato alcun disaccordo fra la Russia e l’Arabia Saudita»

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Cina svolge un ruolo positivo e costruttivo per promuovere la pace e la stabilità del Golfo del Medio Oriente

2023-06-05.

«Il 5 giugno, rispondendo ad una domanda sulla dichiarazione del comandante della Marina iraniana di istituire una nuova alleanza navale con paesi del golfo come l’Arabia Saudita, gli Emirati Arabi Uniti, il Pakistan e l’India, per mantenere la stabilità della regione, il portavoce del Ministero cinese degli Esteri, Wang Wenbin, ha affermato durante la conferenza stampa che il mantenimento della pace e della stabilità della regione del Golfo Persico del Medio Oriente è essenziale per mantenere la pace mondiale, promuovere lo sviluppo economico globale e garantire una fornitura stabile di energia. La Cina appoggia i paesi della regione nel risolvere le divergenze attraverso il dialogo e i negoziati, e nel realizzare un’amicizia di buon vicinato tra di loro. La Cina continuerà a svolgere un ruolo positivo e costruttivo per promuovere la pace e la stabilità nella regione»

Tutti i paesi del Medio Oriente hanno aderito con entusiasmo al piano di pace cinese e gli Stati Uniti sono stati cacciati via mal modo. Questi paesi hanno aderito al blocco euroasiatico.

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Germany’s far-right AfD sees poll numbers surging.

Polls see Germany’s center-left coalition government in free fall while the far-right populist AfD is reaping the benefits. It currently polls on par with Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats.

Never before have voters in Germany been this unhappy with the current coalition government: Only one in five says they are doing a good job. The center-left Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens, and the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) are plummeting in the polls, after only one and a half years in office.

This is according to pollster infratest-dimap who surveyed 1300 eligible voters on May 30 and 31, 2023, and published the results in its monthly “Deutschlandtrend.”

The far-right populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) is the main beneficiary. Its approval ratings have gone up by another 2% since May and, if elections were held now, would win 18% nationwide putting them on a par with Chancellor Olaf Scholz‘s SPD. In several eastern states, the AfD has long been the strongest party.

The center-right bloc of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the regional Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU) which led most West German governments since the end of WW II, is polling at a steady 29%.

In the general election in 2021, the CDU/CSU managed only a weak 24.1%. The SPD, however, won 25.7%, the FDP 11.5%, and the Green Party 14.8% of the vote. In the following months, the Greens saw their support rise to 23% by the summer of 2022 but have been losing ground again since then, slipping again to 15% this month. The FDP polls at 7%. And the opposition post-communist Left Party would narrowly fail to clear the 5% threshold required for representation in the Bundestag.

Why is the AfD gaining ground?

In the latest survey, the pollsters paid particular attention to the AfD sympathizers. They asked them what their main reason would be to vote for the far-right and found that it is mainly dissatisfaction with all the other parties, and especially the government. Only 32% claim to fully support the AfD’s policies.

When asked about the issues that prompt them to vote for the AfD, an overwhelming majority of respondents named the far-right’s critical stance on immigration. 47% said they side with the AfD in its opposition to the government’s climate and environment energy policies, and 43% said they were concerned about the economy.

The coalition partners in Berlin have been arguing for months about conversion plans to switch to climate-friendly heating in houses. Economy Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) has drafted a law to come into effect in 2024, mandating that all new heating systems installed would have to use 65% renewable energy instead of oil or natural gas.

Voters are split on the issue: 45% believe the ban on fossil fuel heating is fundamentally right, while 49% oppose it. 67% say they are worried that they won’t be able to shoulder the financial burden of installing the new heating systems.

Support for Ukraine

At the G7 meeting in Hiroshima, Japan, in May, several Western countries, including the United States, announced their intention to supply US-built F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine.

Ukraine has also asked for German Eurofighter combat aircraft, but the government is hesitant. And this seems to be in line with the general sentiment: Only 28% of respondents in the latest survey support the delivery of German fighter jets to Ukraine. Only Green Party voters are split on the matter.

Overall, support for weapons deliveries to Ukraine is declining, only a minority believes that the arms deliveries should be stepped up.

The call for diplomacy is mounting: 55% now say the German government’s attempts at reaching negotiations to end the fighting should be intensified. 80% support imposing sanctions against Russia, with 42% saying they could even be expanded.