China’s fiscal revenues grew 4.7% in the third quarter from a year earlier, reversing a 7.4% drop in the previous quarter, the finance ministry said on Wednesday, as the country’s economic recovery picked up pace.
China’s economy in the July to September quarter expanded by 4.9% from a year earlier, weaker than analyst expectations but faster than the second quarter’s 3.2% growth.
For the first nine months of the year, fiscal revenues fell 6.4% from a year earlier to 14.10 trillion yuan ($2.12 trillion), while fiscal expenditures dropped 1.9% to 17.519 trillion yuan, the ministry said.
Liu Jinyun, a finance ministry official, told a briefing that tax receipts could get a boost from China’s continued economic rebound in the fourth quarter.
“The decline in accumulative fiscal revenues will gradually moderate,” he said.
The government is on track to cut taxes and fees by more than 2.5 trillion yuan in 2020, including 1.88 trillion yuan in the first eight months, the ministry said.
China has allocated 200 billion yuan in local government special bonds to help resolve risks at small banks, Wang Kebing, a second finance ministry official, told the briefing.
In July, China’s cabinet said it would allow local governments to use part of the money they raise from special bonds this year to recapitalise some small banks.
China’s local governments will be allowed to issue 3.75 trillion yuan in special bonds this year, up from 2.15 trillion yuan in 2019.
«John Roberts sides with the liberals on mail-in voting but things may change once Barrett arrives»
«Roberts’ vote on Monday night, in a ballot dispute in the battleground state of Pennsylvania critical to President Donald Trump’s reelection bid, led to a 4-4 Supreme Court deadlock»
«That left in place a Pennsylvania court decision allowing mailed ballots to be counted up to three days after Election Day, despite familiar yet unfounded claims from Republicans regarding “the taint of” illegal ballots»
«It was not the first time Roberts, a 2005 appointee of Republican George W. Bush, has moved left in a highly charged partisan case to cinch the outcome, but it may be one of the last.»
«The Supreme Court is on the cusp of a transformation»
«Amy Coney Barrett, and two weeks before a presidential election. Barrett, 48, has a record and approach to the law that puts her to the far right of the 65-year-old Roberts»
«The President has said he wants Barrett on the court in time to resolve any major election case»
«That Barrett is waiting in the wings may accelerate Roberts’ long-held concerns about the institutional reputation of the bench»
«On Monday night, Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh dissented. Joining Roberts were the three remaining liberal justices, Stephen Breyer, Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan»
«justices cannot be defined by the president who appointed them»
«In 2012, Roberts cast the decisive vote with the four liberals to uphold the Affordable Care Act, the signature domestic initiative of President Barack Obama. More recently, in 2019, he provided the fifth vote to block Trump’s plan to add a citizenship question to the 2020 census»
«In June, he spurned the Trump plan to end immediately an Obama initiative that shielded from deportation young immigrants, known as “Dreamers,”»
«All of those Roberts’ opinions drew Republican wrath»
«Another ballot dispute from the Wisconsin — a battleground state of the caliber of Pennsylvania — is now pending before the justices»
«I do think that … the propriety of Supreme Court review in matters of disputed electoral contests is a matter that could come up again»
* * * * * * *
Le Loro Giustizia della Suprema Corte sono nominate dal Presidente in carica, ma tale nomina deve essere ratifica dal Senato degli Stati Uniti. Ne consegue che presidente e senato debbano essere dello stesso partito politico.
Il fatto che una Sua Giustizia sia stata nominata da un presidente non indicherebbe però che i suoi giudizi debbano essere sempre in linea con le idee di quel partito: esprimerebbe, o dovrebbe esprimere, piuttosto la sua convinzione sul caso in esame.
Orbene, esaminando le sentenze della Suprema Corte, da centosettanta anni le Loro Giustizie nominate da presidenti democratici hanno sempre votato in accordo alle direttive del loro partito, cosa del tutto non verificabile dall’esame del comportamento delle Loro Giustizie di nomina repubblicana.
Sua Giustizia Roberts è di nomina repubblicana, ma da anni vota in accordo con le Loro Giustizie di nomina liberal democratica. Molto difficile reputarlo un ‘repubblicano’.
Con la conferma senatoriale della nomina di Sua Giustizia Barrett, i rapporto non sarebbero quindi di sei a tre, bensì di cinque a quattro.
A questo punto, il voto di Sua Giustizia Robert diventa ininfluente: se continuasse a schierarsi con i liberal è in minoranza, se si schierasse invece con i repubblicani, sarebbe pur sempre un voto non determinante.
Si è castrato con le sue mani.
Ovviamente, non è detto che Sua Giustizia Roberts prosegua su questa strada, vista la sua vocazione a seguire la maggioranza.
Roberts’ vote on Monday night, in a ballot dispute in the battleground state of Pennsylvania critical to President Donald Trump’s reelection bid, led to a 4-4 Supreme Court deadlock. That left in place a Pennsylvania court decision allowing mailed ballots to be counted up to three days after Election Day, despite familiar yet unfounded claims from Republicans regarding “the taint of” illegal ballots.
It was not the first time Roberts, a 2005 appointee of Republican George W. Bush, has moved left in a highly charged partisan case to cinch the outcome, but it may be one of the last.
The Supreme Court is on the cusp of a transformation, less one week before it likely sees the addition of a conservative jurist, Amy Coney Barrett, and two weeks before a presidential election. Barrett, 48, has a record and approach to the law that puts her to the far right of the 65-year-old Roberts.
Trump, whose reelection fate may hinge on legal rulings, called the court’s action on Pennsylvania “ridiculous” and “very strange” in an interview on “Fox & Friends” Tuesday morning.
The President has said he wants Barrett on the court in time to resolve any major election case. “I think this will end up at the Supreme Court,” he said last month of the presidential contest. “And I think it’s very important that we have nine justices.”
The Supreme Court’s brief order Monday night, with no explanation of its legal reasoning, belied the dramatic role of the chief justice and the likely internal turmoil that preceded it. The court had been grappling with the state GOP’s emergency request to block the Pennsylvania Supreme Court decision for two weeks. Democrats, defending the deadline extension and urging the justices not to intervene, highlighted the pandemic-driven demand for mail-in ballots and postal delays.
That Barrett is waiting in the wings may accelerate Roberts’ long-held concerns about the institutional reputation of the bench. Trump continues to undermine the independence of the federal judiciary with his rhetorical attacks, and new possible threats have arisen from the other side, as some liberals advocate adding more seats to the court — at nine for the past 150 years — to try to diminish its lopsided conservatism.
On Monday night, Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh dissented. Joining Roberts were the three remaining liberal justices, Stephen Breyer, Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan.
Until the September 18 death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Roberts had presided over a 5-4, conservative-liberal bench and sat at the center of the ideological spectrum. That gave him unprecedented control.
Despite his entrenched right-wing views dating to his work in the Reagan administration, Roberts developed a pattern of leaving the fold in highly visible, politically drenched cases. His actions reinforced his own assertion that justices cannot be defined by the president who appointed them.
That pattern counteracted the Trump message that any “Obama judge” or other Democratic appointee would automatically rule against his interests and anyone he appointed to the bench would be on his side.
In 2012, Roberts cast the decisive vote with the four liberals to uphold the Affordable Care Act, the signature domestic initiative of President Barack Obama. More recently, in 2019, he provided the fifth vote to block Trump’s plan to add a citizenship question to the 2020 census.
In June, he spurned the Trump plan to end immediately an Obama initiative that shielded from deportation young immigrants, known as “Dreamers,” who had come to the country without proper documentation with their parents.
All of those Roberts’ opinions drew Republican wrath, and Monday night’s action leaving in place a Pennsylvania Supreme Court decision was no different.
Yet, in this tumultuous period as Trump fights a challenge for the White House from former Vice President Joe Biden, there may be a difference.
Roberts did not explain his thinking. (None of the justices did.) So, for other state ballot disputes marching toward the high court, the chief justice has not locked himself into any legal stance regarding state ballot procedures.
The canny Roberts is known for foreseeing cases headed to the high court and keeping his options open. And his overall 15-year record on voting rights is anything but liberal. He authored the 2013 Shelby County v. Holder decision that gutted a crucial section of the 1965 Voting Rights Act requiring states with a history of discrimination to obtain federal approval for any new voter-ID rule, redistricting map or other electoral change that could affect individuals’ right to vote.
Last April, in a Wisconsin case as the coronavirus pandemic was growing, Roberts voted with the familiar conservative bloc to refuse to extend a deadline with absentee ballots. That time, Democrats, as well as dissenting liberal justices, declared the majority had undermined the franchise, especially for racial minorities, the poor and elderly.
Another ballot dispute from the Wisconsin — a battleground state of the caliber of Pennsylvania — is now pending before the justices.
The Barrett effect
Confounding predictions of the Roberts Court role in any major lawsuit arising from the current presidential election would be a new Justice Barrett. The Senate Judiciary Committee is scheduled to vote on Barrett this Thursday and a full Senate vote could come as soon as next Monday, just over a week before the election.
Her judicial philosophy is deeply conservative, but she has voted on scant election cases as a judge for the past three years on the Chicago-based 7th US Circuit Court of Appeals.
As a young lawyer, Barrett worked on the country’s last major election fight, the 2000 Bush v. Gore case, on the side of Bush. So did Roberts and Kavanaugh.
Cases like Bush v. Gore, Roberts told senators when he was before them in his 2005 confirmation hearings, “don’t come along all that often.”
But, as he declined to answer whether he believed the justices should have intervened in that Florida-based dispute, the prescient Roberts asserted, “I do think that … the propriety of Supreme Court review in matters of disputed electoral contests is a matter that could come up again.”
«It is difficult to think of another occasion when such ‘good news’ will have given so little cheer»
I dati rilasciati da Eurostat sono provvisori e gli istituti di statistica degli stati non forniscono delucidazioni in proposito.
Nessuno mette in dubbio la correttezza dei conti, tuttavia queste stime sembrerebbero essere contrastanti con altri macrodati. Ne citiamo uno per tutti.
«[Settembre]. In netto calo le vendite verso paesi OPEC (-14,8%) e paesi ASEAN (-13,3%) …. L’import, invece, segna ancora una flessione ampia sebbene in attenuazione (-12,4%, da -16,6% di agosto), spiegata soprattutto dal forte calo degli acquisti di energia (-46,7%) …. Gli acquisti da Russia (-41,8%), India (-30,7%), Turchia (-16,1%), Stati Uniti (-15,8%) e Regno Unito (-15,4%) registrano flessioni tendenziali molto più ampie della media delle importazioni dai paesi extra Ue27 …. L’import registra un lieve calo sul mese (-2,5%) e un’ampia flessione sull’anno (-12,2%)» [Istat].
Ci riserviamo un commento documentato quando saranno pubblicati i macrodati definitivi, per non aggiungere confusione a confusione.
* * *
L’unico elemento che al momento parrebbe essere cosa certa potrebbe essere il secondo picco dell’epidemia da coronavirus, che potrebbe portare ad un nuovo lockdown in Europa.
«Il direttore generale della Prevenzione del ministero della Salute, Gianni Rezza: “Ieri i nuovi positivi erano 26.831, oggi 31.084”.
L’analisi della situazione epidemiologica in Italia per la pandemia da Covid-19. Interventi del presidente dell’Istituto Superiore di Sanita e del presidente del Consiglio Superiore di Sanità, Franco Locatelli.
Nel periodo 08 – 21 ottobre 2020, l’indice di trasmissibilità Rt calcolato sui casi sintomatici è pari a 1,70. Si riscontrano valori di Rt superiori a 1,25 nella maggior parte delle Regioni/PA italiane, con valori superiori a 1,5» [Ansa]
Situazione analoga in quasi tutti i paesi europei.
Se sicuramente un nuovo lockdown non potrebbe interferire con i dati del terzo trimestre, altrettanto sicuramente potrebbe deteriorare in modo sostanziale la situazione sociale, politica e economica del blocco europeo.
* * * * * * *
«Europe could be facing a double-dip recession»
«Following record GDP growth in the third quarter, the region risks being tipped straight back into recession as sweeping restrictions aimed at curbing a second wave of coronavirus bring a rapid end to its fragile recovery»
«But the EU economy remains about 4% smaller than it was at the end of September last year and analysts say the recovery will be short-lived»
«It is difficult to think of another occasion when such ‘good news’ will have given so little cheer»
«Governments in Germany and France, the region’s biggest economies, on Wednesday announced nationwide coronavirus lockdowns that will shut non-essential businesses and restaurants for several weeks»
«Italy has announced a partial lockdown, including shutting bars and restaurants at 6pm, but it could enforce blanket restrictions if the outbreak worsens»
«France has already “entered its second dip,” following a record 18.2% surge in third quarter GDP»
«Unfortunately, [third quarter] figures are ancient history and the recovery is already over»
«Villeroy de Galhau, the governor of France’s central bank, said at a climate event in Paris on Thursday that he expects another drop in GDP in the fourth quarter»
«Schools and some workplaces will remain open in Germany and France, as will sectors such as construction and manufacturing, which will partially offset the scale of GDP declines»
«Germany’s economy grew 8.2% between July and September, but is down 4.2% compared to the same quarter last year. In Spain, where GDP grew 16.7% in the third quarter, the economy is 8.7% smaller compared to the same period in 2019. Italy’s economy rebounded 16.1% in the third quarter, but is down 4.7% from the prior year»
«”Incoming information signals that the euro area economic recovery is losing momentum more rapidly than expected after a strong yet partial and uneven rebound in economic activity over the summer months,” Lagarde said. »
* * * * * * *
La situazione sociale, politica ed economica del blocco europeo sembrerebbe essere alquanto difficile.
Il secondo picco epidemico potrebbe anche innescare una ulteriore recessione, ben difficilmente governabile.
Following record GDP growth in the third quarter, the region risks being tipped straight back into recession as sweeping restrictions aimed at curbing a second wave of coronavirus bring a rapid end to its fragile recovery.
EU gross domestic product surged 12.1% between July and September, statistics agency Eurostat said in a statement on Friday. GDP increased 12.7% across the 19 countries that use the euro. The expansions, which followed huge declines in the second quarter, were the biggest since 1995.
But the EU economy remains about 4% smaller than it was at the end of September last year and analysts say the recovery will be short-lived.
“It is difficult to think of another occasion when such ‘good news’ will have given so little cheer,” chief Europe economist at Capital Economics, Andrew Kenningham said in a research note. “The second wave of coronavirus restrictions is about to push the single currency area into a double-dip recession,” he added.
Governments in Germany and France, the region’s biggest economies, on Wednesday announced nationwide coronavirus lockdowns that will shut non-essential businesses and restaurants for several weeks. Italy has announced a partial lockdown, including shutting bars and restaurants at 6pm, but it could enforce blanket restrictions if the outbreak worsens.
France has already “entered its second dip,” following a record 18.2% surge in third quarter GDP, and the prospects for a significant recovery in 2021 are “darkening sharply,” said ING economist Charlotte de Montpellier. “Unfortunately, [third quarter] figures are ancient history and the recovery is already over,” she wrote in a research note on Friday.
Villeroy de Galhau, the governor of France’s central bank, said at a climate event in Paris on Thursday that he expects another drop in GDP in the fourth quarter, “though hopefully one that is less severe” than in the spring.
Schools and some workplaces will remain open in Germany and France, as will sectors such as construction and manufacturing, which will partially offset the scale of GDP declines.
Another mitigating factor is that economies are already in the doldrums, having failed to fully recover from historic contractions in the second quarter, which means that further falls in GDP will be relatively less severe.
Germany’s economy grew 8.2% between July and September, but is down 4.2% compared to the same quarter last year. In Spain, where GDP grew 16.7% in the third quarter, the economy is 8.7% smaller compared to the same period in 2019. Italy’s economy rebounded 16.1% in the third quarter, but is down 4.7% from the prior year.
Even before lockdowns were announced, business activity in Europe was in decline, according to IHS Markit’s latest Purchasing Managers’ Index.
Stricter measures have triggered a “clear deterioration” in the near-term economic outlook, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde told reporters on Thursday.
“Incoming information signals that the euro area economic recovery is losing momentum more rapidly than expected after a strong yet partial and uneven rebound in economic activity over the summer months,” Lagarde said.
She signaled that the ECB stands ready to take action to support the economy and said the central bank is examining all its potential tools. Governments may also be called on to increase spending.
“The dilemma for policymakers is that the most effective way to cushion the blow from another lockdown is by much more generous fiscal support, perhaps including one-off cash transfers to households and businesses,” said Kenningham of Capital Economics.
The EU unemployment rate was stable in September at 8.3%, according to Eurostat, but Kenningham cautioned that the labor market is likely to “come under growing strain in the coming months.”
In the third quarter 2020, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 12.7% in the euro area and by 12.1% in the EU, compared with the previous quarter, according to a preliminary flash estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. These were by far the sharpest increases observed since time series started in 1995, and a rebound compared to the second quarter of 2020, when GDP had decreased by 11.8% in the euro area and by 11.4% in the EU.
These preliminary GDP flash estimates are based on data sources that are incomplete and subject to further revisions.
Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP has however decreased by 4.3% in the euro area and by 3.9% in the EU in the third quarter of 2020, which represents a partial recovery after -14.8% and -13.9% respectively in the previous quarter.
+8.2% on the previous quarter (price-, seasonally and calendar-adjusted)
-4.1% on the same quarter a year earlier (price-adjusted)
-4.3% on the same quarter a year earlier (price- and calendar-adjusted)
WIESBADEN – The gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 8.2% in the third quarter of 2020 on the second quarter of 2020 after adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar variations. Growth was based on higher final consumption expenditure of households, higher capital formation in machinery and equipment and a sharp increase in exports. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that the German economy thus grew markedly after the historic slump of the gross domestic product in the second quarter of 2020 due to the beginning corona pandemic. However, when compared with the fourth quarter of 2019 – the quarter before the global corona pandemic -, the price-, seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP was by 4.2% lower in the third quarter of 2020.
Gross domestic product markedly down year on year
GDP in the third quarter of 2020 was down a price-ajusted 4.1% on the third quarter of 2019 (price- and calendar-adjusted: -4.3%).
Nel terzo trimestre del 2020 si stima che il prodotto interno lordo (Pil), espresso in valori concatenati con anno di riferimento 2015, corretto per gli effetti di calendario e destagionalizzato sia aumentato del 16,1% rispetto al trimestre precedente, mentre sia diminuito del 4,7% in termini tendenziali.
Il terzo trimestre del 2020 ha avuto quattro giornate lavorative in più rispetto al trimestre precedente e una giornata lavorativa in più rispetto al terzo trimestre del 2019.
La variazione congiunturale è la sintesi di un aumento del valore aggiunto sia nel comparto dell’agricoltura, silvicoltura e pesca, sia in quello dell’industria, sia in quello dei servizi. Dal lato della domanda, vi è un contributo positivo sia della componente nazionale (al lordo delle scorte), sia di quella estera netta.
La variazione acquisita per il 2020 è pari a -8,2%.
L’economia italiana, dopo la forte contrazione registrata nella prima metà dell’anno per gli effetti economici dell’emergenza sanitaria registra un consistente recupero nel terzo trimestre, misurato da una crescita congiunturale del Pil pari a 16,1%. La ripresa è diffusa a tutti i comparti economici e dal lato della domanda è trainata sia dalla componente nazionale (al lordo delle scorte), sia dalla componente estera. A causa delle flessioni dei precedenti due trimestri dell’anno, nel confronto con il terzo trimestre del 2019 la variazione resta negativa nella misura del 4,7%. Il marcato recupero del terzo trimestre riporta il volume del Pil ai livelli registrati nella prima metà del 2015.
A livello mondiale i tre grandi blocchi economici sono la Cina, gli Stati Uniti e l’eurozona.
Questa sinossi è impietosa.
Mentre la Cina ha ripreso a crescere e gli Stati Uniti sono messi bene su tale strada, l’eurozona langue nel più profondo rosso.
Non è quindi il Covid-19 il problema, né la recessione è mondiale.
Il grande malato è l’eurozona.
La sua Weltanschauung, i suoi valori sociali, politici ed economici non reggono più il passo con i tempi. I suoi governanti sono ideologicamente coatti a perseguire tutto il contrario di ciò che sarebbe necessario fare.
Vivono crogiolandosi nel delirio forzoso del Green Deal, che mai potrà essere concretizzato perché illogico. Ma non si può vivere di sogni impossibili. La realtà alla fine stritola.
Questi dati dovrebbero dare da pensare, ma la capacità di revisione critica è caratteristica delle persone mentalmente sane ed oneste.
Notiamo come stia proseguendo la tradizione ultradecennale di escludere dalle nomine prelati francese e tedeschi.
Sta mutando la mappatura delle posizioni di responsabilità nella Santa Sede, e la componente europea sta assottigliandosi, tranne quella italiana che, tutto sommato, a confronto apparirebbe esse quella con maggiore buon senso.
Riceveranno la porpora il prossimo 28 novembre: 9 hanno meno di ottant’anni e tra loro c’è il Custode del Sacro Convento di Assisi, padre Mauro Gambetti.
Tredici nuovi cardinali per la Chiesa, nove di loro con meno di ottant’anni e dunque con il diritto a partecipare a un futuro conclave, ai quali si aggiungono quattro ultraottantenni. È l’annuncio, come sempre a sorpresa, che Papa Francesco ha fatto al termine dell’Angelus di domenica 25 ottobre, comunicando ai fedeli in Piazza San Pietro e a quanti erano collegati in tutto il mondo la creazione dei nuovi porporati.
Due dei nuovi cardinali appartengono alla Curia Romana: sono il Segretario del Sinodo dei Vescovi, il maltese Mario Grech, e l’italiano Marcello Semeraro, già vescovo di Albano e nuovo Prefetto della Congregazione per le cause dei santi. A loro il Papa ha unito sei pastori di Chiese nel mondo: l’arcivescovo di Kigali, in Ruanda, Antoine Kambanda; l’arcivescovo di Washington, negli Stati Uniti, Wilton Gregory; l’arcivescovo di Capiz, nelle Filippine, Jose Fuerte Advincula; l’arcivescovo di Santiago del Cile, il cappuccino Celestino Aós Braco; il vicario apostolico del Brunei, Cornelius Sim; l’arcivescovo di Siena, Italia, Augusto Paolo Lojudice. Con loro il Papa ha anche nominato l’attuale Custode del Sacro Convento di Assisi, il francescano padre Mauro Gambetti.
Ai nove porporati con meno di ottant’anni, Papa Francesco ha unito anche quattro nuovi cardinali ultraottantenni. Sono Felipe Arizmendi Esquivel, arcivescovo emerito di San Cristóbal de Las Casas (Messico); il nunzio apostolico Silvano Tomasi, scalabriniano, già osservatore permanente alle Nazioni Unite di Ginevra, che collabora con il Dicastero per lo sviluppo umano integrale; padre Raniero Cantalamessa, cappuccino, predicatore della Casa Pontificia e il parroco del Divino Amore a Castel di Leva, don Enrico Feroci.
I cardinali vestono il colore della porpora che sta a indicare la disponibilità al sacrificio “usque ad sanguinis effusionem”, fino allo spargimento del sangue, al servizio del Successore di Pietro, e anche se risiedono nelle regioni più remote del mondo diventano titolari di una parrocchia della Città Eterna perché incardinati nella Chiesa di cui il Papa è Vescovo.
«The U.S. economy grew at a historic pace in the third quarter ….
The 33.1% annualized growth rate reported by the Commerce Department on Thursday, the last major economic scorecard before next Tuesday’s presidential election ….
The economy remains 3.5% below its level at the end of 2019 ….
“Biggest and Best in the History of our Country, and not even close,” Trump wrote on Twitter. “So glad this great GDP number came out before November 3rd.” ….
“We are in a deep hole and President Trump’s failure to act has meant that third-quarter growth wasn’t nearly enough to get us out of (it),” said Biden. “The recovery that is happening is helping those at the top, but leaving tens of millions of working families and small businesses behind.” ….
The rebound in gross domestic product followed a 31.4% rate of contraction in the second quarter, the deepest since the government started keeping records in 1947. On a year-on-year basis GDP jumped 7.4% last quarter after sinking 9.0% in the April-June period.»
La variazione del +33.1% del pil trimestre su trimestre e la variazione del +7.4% del pil reale sarebbero risultati del tutto trascurabili, ininfluenti, e si sarebbe potuto ottenere ben di più sotto l’illuminata guida dei liberal democratici.
* * * * * * *
Sulle stesse note il Washington Post, punta di diamante dei liberal
«U.S. economy recoups two-thirds of ground lost in first half of year, but there is still far to go»
«The GDP rose by a record 7.4 percent in the third quarter, a sharp reversal from the historic and devastating second-quarter plunge of 9 percent»
«The U.S. economy grew at a record 7.4 percent between July and September and has recovered two-thirds of the ground it lost during the first half of the year»
«But economists remain wary, as the figures come just as the country is entering a period of rising coronavirus cases»
«The data released Thursday morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis was in line with expectations and stands in sharp contrast to the historic and devastating second-quarter plunge of 9 percent because of pandemic closures»
«the economy and consumer spending looked vastly different, and much healthier, than they did between April and June»
«The third-quarter GDP estimates showed a rise in investment on new homes, along with household goods such as furniture, equipment, renovations and home offices»
«Health-care spending jumped 18 percent as people felt safer rescheduling routine appointments and surgeries»
«Purchases of new cars and parts soared 17 percent»
«Furnishings and household equipment grew by 12.6 percent, and sales of clothing and footwear skyrocketed by 27.2 percent»
«The Commerce Department was also expected to report that the GDP grew at an annual rate of about 33 percent, but that figure isn’t relevant in a crisis as unusual as this one»
«Yet the recovery continues. Approximately 23 million Americans are still on some form of unemployment benefits, and the number of new weekly jobless claims remains persistently high seven months into the pandemic»
* * * * * * *
La sintesi finale del Washington Post è lapidaria
«that figure isn’t relevant».
Sembrerebbe proprio di rileggere la favola della volpe sotto l’uva.
The GDP rose by a record 7.4 percent in the third quarter, a sharp reversal from the historic and devastating second-quarter plunge of 9 percent.
The U.S. economy grew at a record 7.4 percent between July and September and has recovered two-thirds of the ground it lost during the first half of the year. But economists remain wary, as the figures come just as the country is entering a period of rising coronavirus cases.
The data released Thursday morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis was in line with expectations and stands in sharp contrast to the historic and devastating second-quarter plunge of 9 percent because of pandemic closures. As state shutdown measures eased over the summer and businesses brought people back to work, the economy and consumer spending looked vastly different, and much healthier, than they did between April and June.
But that doesn’t mean the economy has entirely healed, or that the pace at which the economy recovered in the third quarter will keep up in the final stretch of 2020, especially given a surge in cases of the novel coronavirus and a hazy timeline on whether another stimulus bill may be passed.
For the economy to recover all that was lost in the previous quarter, third-quarter GDP would have had to surge and hit 10 percent, and even more to make up for smaller first-quarter losses. Put simply, the economy turned around in the third quarter. But it has not shed the coronavirus crisis altogether, and the ongoing health crisis continues to jeopardize the recovery’s strength.
The third-quarter GDP estimates showed a rise in investment on new homes, along with household goods such as furniture, equipment, renovations and home offices. For some wealthier Americans and people working from home, turning a backyard into a socially distant place to hang out, or an extra room into an office, became a priority late in the summer.
Apart from housing-related spending, economists also expected strong gains in manufacturing, which has more than made up for pandemic-era losses. Health-care spending jumped 18 percent as people felt safer rescheduling routine appointments and surgeries.
Purchases of new cars and parts soared 17 percent. Furnishings and household equipment grew by 12.6 percent, and sales of clothing and footwear skyrocketed by 27.2 percent.
Constance Hunter, chief economist at KPMG, said the rebound reflects a shift away from spending on services to spending on goods. Think stationary bikes and backyard grills in lieu of sporting events and concert tickets.
But those spending habits may not stick around for long.
“That’s not going to be repeated,” Hunter said. “There’s only so many fire pits and backyard furniture sets you can purchase. … It goes without saying, we need to do better on the virus or we’re not going to get services consumption.”
The Commerce Department was also expected to report that the GDP grew at an annual rate of about 33 percent, but that figure isn’t relevant in a crisis as unusual as this one. The annual rate allows easy comparisons across periods, but it is built on the assumption that this quarter’s growth will continue for an entire year. That wasn’t true in the second quarter, when a 9 percent loss was reported as a 31.4 percent annualized drop, and it won’t be true in the third quarter either.
Recessions are traditionally defined by a significant decline in economic activity spread across the whole economy for two consecutive quarters. The National Bureau of Economic Research has said the economy officially fell into a recession in February, but it will take some time before the bureau officially says when the recession has ended. Some economists speculate the economy turned around in May, as states reopened and the economy added jobs for the first time since February.
Yet the recovery continues. Approximately 23 million Americans are still on some form of unemployment benefits, and the number of new weekly jobless claims remains persistently high seven months into the pandemic. The number of people who have fallen into poverty has grown by 8 million since May, and many businesses that have not yet reopened are transitioning furloughs into permanent layoffs.
Disposable personal income fell 4.4 percent in the third quarter, after a Cares Act-assisted 10 percent rise in the second quarter. Economists fear that trend could worsen in the fourth quarter without more government aid to struggling households and businesses.
“Have we moved into a growth stage and thus out of a recession?” said Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserve economist and an expert on recessions. “If we are so deep in a hole still, then that switch-flipping is not that important. It does show we’re going in the right direction. With the second wave going, we might not much longer.”
As the dreaded flu season and colder weather arrive, economists and public health officials are bracing for a brutal winter. Officials such as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell have long said that a robust and stable recovery depends on controlling the pandemic. Many parts of the country, including the Midwest, are seeing surging case counts as hospitals report a flood of coronavirus patients.
Economists puts the risk of a double-dip recession later this year or early next year at 30 to 35 percent, depending on the course of the virus, the prospects of another stimulus package and any trade tensions with China.
White House officials touted the GDP number and argued Trump’s economic policies were responsible for the “momentum” powering the economy.
“It’s a strong, strong economy. The V-shaped concept I coined awhile back looking pretty good right now,” Larry Kudlow, the president’s senior economic adviser, told Fox News.
The stock market saw a small lift after Thursday’s GDP release. By midmorning, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 0.6 percent. The S&P 500 index was up roughly 1 percent, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.2 percent.
The results of next week’s presidential election should clarify how soon Congress and the White House can cut another stimulus deal. President Trump on Tuesday said the White House would approve a major stimulus package after the election. But it’s unclear whether he would have the political will to sign a bill if he is not reelected, or if lawmakers will make stimulus a priority in a lame-duck session.
That could mean that struggling businesses that managed to survive the third quarter might not make it to the start of next year.
“A number of small businesses are deciding — knowing that relief won’t be coming until January — whether to exist or not,” said Lisa Cook, an economist at Michigan State University. “Restaurants have to be in that situation.”
Thursday’s figures offered a blurry snapshot of the emergency aid that trickled out to struggling households and businesses, noted Ernie Tedeschi, a former Treasury Department economist and head of fiscal analysis at Evercore ISI.
At the end of July, nearly 30 million Americans saw their $600 enhanced unemployment benefits expire. Aug. 8 marked the last day that small businesses could apply for a forgivable loan through the Paycheck Protection Program. Also at the beginning of August, Trump signed four executive actions geared toward eviction protections, student loan relief and unemployment aid that would guarantee $300 per week in emergency benefits for up to six weeks.
But that timeline doesn’t mean Americans were consistently getting help from one week to the next, Tedeschi said. Many people faced gaps between the time their $600 emergency benefits lapsed and when their $300 in emergency aid kicked in. In many cases, states were slow to set up their unemployment systems to distribute those weekly payments, which were sometimes disbursed later as one large lump sum.
“The help that people got from the federal government came and went in fits and starts throughout the whole quarter,” Tedeschi said. “There were weird lurches forward and back in the aid people got.”
Regardless of how much the economy grew in the third quarter, scores of American households, businesses and entire industries risk falling further behind. Spending may have improved between July and September, but Thursday’s figures won’t fully capture the economy’s lingering pain.
“I don’t think that bifurcation has stopped,” said Cook. “When I see those food bank lines stop snaking for miles, then I will be convinced that the recession is over.”
Questo è un risultato stupefacente, di cui non si trova riscontro nella storia.
Diamo atto al Presidente Trump di essere stato estremamente abile, pur dovendo agire in ambiente ostile. Mr Biden non ha commentato.
«Gross domestic product rebounded at a 33.1% annualized rate last quarter, the Commerce Department said in its advance estimate on Thursday. That was the fastest pace since the government started keeping records in 1947 and followed a historic shrinkage rate of 31.4% in the second quarter.»
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 33.1 percent in the third quarter of 2020 (table 1), according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 31.4 percent.
The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see “Source Data for the Advance Estimate” on page 2). The “second” estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on November 25, 2020.
The increase in third quarter GDP reflected continued efforts to reopen businesses and resume activities that were postponed or restricted due to COVID-19. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the GDP estimate for the third quarter of 2020 because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified.
The increase in real GDP reflected increases in personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in federal government spending (reflecting fewer fees paid to administer the Paycheck Protection Program loans) and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased (table 2).
The increase in PCE reflected increases in services (led by health care as well as food services and accommodations) and goods (led by motor vehicles and parts as well as clothing and footwear). The increase in private inventory investment primarily reflected an increase in retail trade (led by motor vehicle dealers). The increase in exports primarily reflected an increase in goods (led by automotive vehicles, engines, and parts as well as capital goods). The increase in nonresidential fixed investment primarily reflected an increase in equipment (led by transportation equipment). The increase in residential fixed investment primarily reflected an increase in brokers’ commissions and other ownership transfer costs.
Current-dollar GDP increased 38.0 percent, or $1.64 trillion, in the third quarter to a level of $21.16 trillion. In the second quarter, GDP decreased 32.8 percent, or $2.04 trillion (tables 1 and 3).
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.4 percent in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 1.4 percent in the second quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 3.7 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 1.6 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 3.5 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.8 percent.
Current-dollar personal income decreased $540.6 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $1.45 trillion in the second quarter. The decrease in personal income was more than accounted for by a decrease in personal current transfer receipts (notably, government social benefits related to pandemic relief programs) that was partly offset by increases in compensation and proprietors’ income (table 8). Additional information on several factors impacting personal income can be found in “Effects of Selected Federal Pandemic Response Programs on Personal Income.”
Disposable personal income decreased $636.7 billion, or 13.2 percent, in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $1.60 trillion, or 44.3 percent, in the second quarter. Real disposable personal income decreased 16.3 percent, in contrast to an increase of 46.6 percent.
Personal saving was $2.78 trillion in the third quarter, compared with $4.71 trillion in the second quarter. The personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 15.8 percent in the third quarter, compared with 25.7 percent in the second quarter.
The U.S. economy grew at an unrivaled pace in the third quarter as the government poured out more than $3 trillion worth of pandemic relief which fueled consumer spending, but the deep scars from the COVID-19 recession could take a year or more to heal.
Gross domestic product rebounded at a 33.1% annualized rate last quarter, the Commerce Department said in its advance estimate on Thursday. That was the fastest pace since the government started keeping records in 1947 and followed a historic shrinkage rate of 31.4% in the second quarter.
The GDP report – one of the last major economic scorecards before next week’s presidential election – will do little to mitigate the human tragedy inflicted by the coronavirus pandemic, with tens of millions Americans still unemployed and more than 222,000 dead.
With five days remaining to Election Day President Donald Trump, trailing in most national opinion polls, will probably seize on the stunning rebound in GDP as a sign of recovery. But U.S. output remains below its level in the fourth quarter of 2019, a fact Trump’s Democratic challenger Joe Biden is almost certain to highlight along with signs that the growth spurt is fast petering out.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the economy expanding at a 31% rate in the July-September quarter. The economy slipped into recession in February.
The government’s rescue package provided a lifeline for many businesses and the unemployed, juicing up consumer spending, which on its own powered the surge in GDP. But government funding has been depleted with no deal in sight for another round of relief. New COVID-19 cases are spiraling across the country, forcing restrictions on businesses like restaurants and bars.
Just over half of the 22.2 million jobs lost during the pandemic have been recouped, and layoffs persist.
A separate report from the Labor Department on Thursday showed 751,000 people filed for state unemployment benefits in the week ending Oct. 24, compared to 791,000 in the previous period. Though claims have dropped from a record 6.867 million in March, they remain above their 665,000 peak seen during the 2007-09 Great Recession.