Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Medio Oriente

Turkia. Accordo con Qatar, che erogherebbe 13 mld Usd.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-08-19.

2018-06-27__Trump_Suprema_Corte__001

La politica di fedeli rapporti amicali genera sempre buoni frutti.

«Gulf nation’s banking sector has considerable exposure to Turkey»

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«Qatar’s emir headed to Turkey on Wednesday for talks with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who is dealing with a collapse of the lira currency and deteriorating relations with the United States»

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«Ad agevolare il soccorso dell’Emiro, la fedeltà dimostrata da Ankara nei confronto del ricco alleato del Golfo durante i lunghi anni della crisi siriana, e soprattutto nell’ultima fase in cui gli altri Paesi dell’area, con in testa l’Arabia Saudita, hanno deciso di forzare la mano rompendo le relazioni diplomatiche con i «nemici» sciiti del Qatar»

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«Dopo un incontro di tre ore e mezza ad Ankara, l’Emiro del Qatar, lo sceicco Al Thani, ha promesso che il suo Paese investirà 15 miliardi di dollari — circa 13 miliardi di euro — in Turchia»

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Ben difficilmente saranno i quindici miliardi erogati dall’emiro del Qatar che potranno tamponare la crisi della Turkia.

Non dovrebbe però essere sottovalutato l’impatto politico e psicologico di una simile manovra.

Si resta invece molto incuriositi dall’attuale silenzio del Presidente Putin.


Gulf New. Banking. 2018-08-16. Qatar’s emir heads to Turkey for talks with Erdogan

Gulf nation’s banking sector has considerable exposure to Turkey.

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Dubai: Qatar’s emir headed to Turkey on Wednesday for talks with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who is dealing with a collapse of the lira currency and deteriorating relations with the United States.

Emir Tamim Bin Hamad Al Thani and Erdogan are expected to discuss “means of strengthening the existing strategic cooperation between the two countries in various fields”, the state news agency QNA reported.

Qatar National Bank, the Middle East and North Africa’s largest bank, in 2016 completed the acquisition of Turkey’s Finansbank. Now around 15 per cent of QNB’s assets and 14 per cent of its loans relate to Turkey, according to Arqaam Capital.

Commercial Bank, Qatar’s third largest bank by assets, has been deploying more capital and focus on its Turkey business in a bid to benefit from closer political ties between the two countries. The lender owns Turkey’s Alternatifbank.


Corriere. 2018-08-16. Soccorso di lusso per Erdogan: in arrivo fondi dal Qatar per 13 miliardi

La promessa dell’Emiro dopo l’incontro ad Ankara. E il presidente turco manda segnali di disgelo all’Europa: liberato dopo 14 mesi il presidente onorario di Amnesty.

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Nel pieno del tracollo finanziario dello scorso finesettimana, Recep Tayyip Erdogan aveva promesso minaccioso dalle colonne del New York Times che la Turchia si sarebbe cercata presto «nuovi alleati» dopo il voltafaccia degli Stati Uniti con i nuovi dazi decisi da Trump. Detto, fatto. Dopo un incontro di tre ore e mezza ad Ankara, l’Emiro del Qatar, lo sceicco Al Thani, ha promesso che il suo Paese investirà 15 miliardi di dollari — circa 13 miliardi di euro — in Turchia. E la notizia ha contribuito a risollevare il corso della lira, il cui valore è risalito del 6% dopo le pesantissime perdite consumate nell’ultima settimana.

Una boccata d’ossigeno essenziale per i mercati, ma anche per Erdogan, rimasto spiazzato dalla «aggressione» americana e determinato a salvare il suo Paese — e il consenso al suo potere — dal tracollo economico-finanziario. Ad agevolare il soccorso dell’Emiro, la fedeltà dimostrata da Ankara nei confronto del ricco alleato del Golfo durante i lunghi anni della crisi siriana, e soprattutto nell’ultima fase in cui gli altri Paesi dell’area, con in testa l’Arabia Saudita, hanno deciso di forzare la mano rompendo le relazioni diplomatiche con i «nemici» sciiti del Qatar.

Ma la strategia diplomatica di Erdogan per uscire dall’angolo non si ferma qui. Il secondo fronte aperto dal governo turco per risalire la china politica ed economica sembra essere proprio quello europeo. Già negli scorsi giorni un canale era sembrato aprirsi con la Germania quando la cancelliera Angela Merkel aveva sottolineato che «nessuno ha interesse in una destabilizzazione economica della Turchia». Ieri Erdogan ha dato seguito ai segnali tedeschi trattenendosi al telefono con Merkel, alla quale farà visita, dopo mesi di alta tensione, a settembre. E oggi è in programma un contatto telefonico con l’altro leader forte europeo, il francese Emmanuel Macron.

A testimoniare la volontà di riavvicinarsi all’Ue — per lo meno sulla carta — è arrivata anche la decisione inattesa da parte del governo turco di liberare dopo 14 mesi di prigionia Taner Kilic, presidente onorario di Amnesty in Turchia, incarcerato lo scorso anno con l’accusa di far parte della rete dell’imam Fethullah Gulen, considerato da Ankara il «mandante» del tentato golpe del 2016.

Un segnale politico ancora più evidente considerato che arriva nelle stesse ore in cui la corte di Istanbul ha respinto un secondo appello da parte della difesa del pastore Andrew Brunson per la sua liberazione. Mano tesa all’Europa, pungo di ferro con gli americani dunque. Anche sul piano più concreto: dopo l’approvazione delle tariffe anti-turche da parte degli Usa lo scorso venerdì, Erdogan ha risposto firmando il decreto che impone nuovi dazi dal 50 al 140% su prodotti di importazione americana come riso, alcol, tabacco e automobili. E pur senza porre tariffe esplicite, per completare il quadro, Erdogan ha invitato i suoi concittadini a boicottare anche i prodotti americani nel settore dell’elettronica: a partire dagli iPhone.

Annunci
Pubblicato in: Energie Alternative, Unione Europea

Germania. Energie alternative. Produttività al 2.24%. – Handelsblatt.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-08-19.

2018-08-17__renewable

Negli ambienti che contano, ossia quelli che investono mettendo lì il denaro cash, iniziano a serpeggiare serissimi dubbi su molti aspetti della situazione tedesca: tutta una serie di perplessità, che sommate assieme conducono alla sospensione degli investimenti nel comparto produttivo. Un aspetto è di semplicità al limite del banale:

Germania. La demografia che stritola. Mancano tre milioni di lavoratori. – Vbw.

Germania. Incidenza economica del calo demografico. – Bloomberg.

Germania. Realtà geografica, non più umana, politica ed economica.

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Il quesito è semplice: a cosa mai potrà servire una produzione sostenuta di energia quando le proiezioni della popolazione tedesca autoctona la danno dimezzata in qualche decennio?

Una cosa sono le dotte, si fa per dire, disquisizioni accademiche, sostituite di questi tempi dagli articoli sui media e dalle continue interviste su youtube, senza tener conto delle interviste rilasciate da illustri sconosciuti/e che parlano con grande sicurezza, ed una totalmente differente e il mettere sul tavolino una decina di miliardi di euro, estratti dalle proprie tasche.

Ci si metta nei panni di chi investe cifre di tal rango, con attesa di rientrare nell’arco di una decina di anni: orbene, costui è interessato massimamente a come si prospetta la situazione in tale arco di tempo. Ha l’attuale in non cale.

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«The comment comes after a high-pressure front over the region, known to cause clear and sunny skies, brought wind turbines to a standstill»

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«At one point in July, the 38,000 wind turbines with a 58,000-megawatt capacity delivered only 1,300 megawatts to the grid»

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«Last month, the 4.4 billion kilowatt hours of wind energy produced was 20 percent less than in July 2017.»

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«To get a lot of wind energy, you need a lot of wind»

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«high temperatures are not optimal for solar energy. Moderate temperatures lead to greater performance. The warmer a module gets, the less electricity it produces»

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Due elementi sarebbero da essere enfatizzati.

«the 38,000 wind turbines with a 58,000-megawatt capacity delivered only 1,300 megawatts to the grid»

Ma (100 * 1.3 / 58) = 2.24%.

Al sodo, gli impianti delle energie alternative hanno immesso in rete il 2.24% della loro potenzialità.

Se per alcuni questo sia un successo mirabolante e se per altri sia invece un fiasco terrificante, per i poveracci che ci hanno investito è una débâcle. Ma è universalmente noto come i politici guardino con malcelato sprezzo quei vili ragionieri contabili, salvo poi criminalizzarli a default ottenuto.

«To get a lot of wind energy, you need a lot of wind»

Già: chi lo avrebbe mai detto? Chi mai avrebbe potuto immaginarselo?

Senza vento le turbine eoliche non producono alcunché.

Il comparto produttivo potrà quindi lavorare solo se la Divina Provvidenza mandasse un po’ di vento.

Ma ben difficilmente chi investe miliardi lo fa nella sola speranza che intervenga la Divina Provvidenza.

Nota.

A ottobre si voterà in Assia ed in Baviera. Che il vento non cambi direzione?



Handelsblatt. 2018-08-16. Germany’s renewable energy production defies fickle weather

The recent unpredictable weather is a reminder of renewable energy’s variability, prompting coal proponents to argue Germany shouldn’t abandon conventional fuels. But heat waves don’t play favorites.

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Northern Europe’s summer heat wave showed once again how sensitive wind and solar energy can be to the vagaries of weather. And proponents of the continued use of coal wasted no time calling for a slowdown in abandoning conventional fuels for power generation.

“This unusual summer shows how important a broad energy mix is, in which every type of generation can play to its strengths,” said Rolf Martin Schmitz, chief executive of RWE, Germany’s largest electrical utility. RWE relies exclusively on conventional fuels like coal, gas and nuclear.

It was a bold gambit to seize on weather conditions that are caused by too much carbon in the atmosphere to justify putting even more carbon emissions into the air.

Stilled wind turbines.

The comment comes after a high-pressure front over the region, known to cause clear and sunny skies, brought wind turbines to a standstill. At one point in July, the 38,000 wind turbines with a 58,000-megawatt capacity delivered only 1,300 megawatts to the grid. Last month, the 4.4 billion kilowatt hours of wind energy produced was 20 percent less than in July 2017.

“To get a lot of wind energy, you need a lot of wind,” said think tank Agora Energiewende’s Christoph Podewils. “And that usually comes with a weather change.”

By contrast, the uninterrupted sunny weather, with temperatures hitting 39 degrees Celsius (102 degrees Fahrenheit), enabled Germany’s solar installations to produce 6 billion kilowatt hours of electricity in July – more than any other month.

Counterintuitively, high temperatures are not optimal for solar energy. Moderate temperatures lead to greater performance. “The warmer a module gets, the less electricity it produces,” said Robert Girmes from Energy Weather.

The best month for solar energy was May, when sunny weather with temperatures at a more pleasant 23 degrees Celsius led to the generation of 32,000 megawatts, while that hot 39-degree day in July yielded only 27,000. A gruelingly hot summer like this one can actually reduce performance by 5 percent.

It isn’t just renewables.

For that matter, the hot weather also affected the performance of conventional power plants, reducing their output. Nuclear and hard coal-fired plants often have to cut back on production because the water they need for cooling is too warm or the rivers are too low to draw from.

In any case, the continual increase in the share of renewable energy in electricity production defies the variable weather, whether heat wave or cloudy doldrums or even reduced subsidies. Wind energy may have been down this summer, but the long periods of sunshine more than made up for it, so that overall electricity production from renewable sources rose 2 percent in July.

For the first half of 2018, the share of power provided by renewable sources was 36 percent. And for the first time, electricity from wind, sun, water and biomass exceeded that from coal-fired plants.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Medio Oriente, Unione Europea

Le illusioni europee sull’Iran. – Al Arabiya.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-08-18.

Iran 001

I problemi culturali, politici, economici e militari legati all’Iran sono complessi e sfaccettati. Difficile cercare di comprenderli senza aver anche valutato attentamente come le svariate componenti in gioco vedano la questione.

A seguito saranno riportate alcune considerazioni fatte dagli arabi.

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«It was an almost surrealistic scene the other day when the European Union’s foreign relations spokeswoman Federica Mogherini traveled halfway around the world to New Zealand to lobby for “continued trade with the Islamic Republic of Iran” in defiance of sanctions re-imposed by US President Donald Trump»

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«Here was an official of a bloc of democracies supposedly allied to the United States not only criticizing an American policy, something quite legitimate, but inviting others to oppose it with full resolve»

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«Trump may have been impolitic or provocative. But he has betrayed no signature and violated no treaty»

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«To start with, they all insist that the so-called “nuke deal” concocted by former US President Barack Obama is inviolable because, in Mogherini’s words, the EU must “honor its signature.”»

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«However, the EU never signed the so-called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), nor did anyone else»

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«the EU was never part of the negotiations that took place between Iran on one hand and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany on the other»

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«the so-called 5+1 group that negotiated with the Islamic Republic was an informal group with absolutely no legal existence»

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«If Mogherini and Alistair Burt are serious in their campaign in favor of the JCPOA they should re-write it in the form of a treaty signed by EU members and ratified by their respective parliaments or at least the EU’s Council of Ministers»

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«With the re-imposition of American sanctions, thousands of firms trading with both Iran and the US would face a dilemma: which of the two markets do they choose? It is not in the EU’s mandate to resolve that dilemma for them.»

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«Four-fifths of Iran’s trade with the EU bloc is with Germany, France, the UK and Italy.»

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«That may or may not be the right policy, but it is at least a policy»

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Trump. Executive Order EO13846. Della vera novità nessuno ne parla.

Al Arabiya evidenzia alcune problematiche, diplomatiche e giuridiche, di non poco conto.

In primo luogo, l’Iranian deal non esiste, né può esistere, da un punto di vista diplomatico e giuridico, non essendo le parti contraenti legalmente abilitate a firmare trattati internazionali. Non lice invocare the rule of laws per poi disattenderle.

In secondo luogo, l’Unione Europea non compariva tra gli attori dell’Iranian deal, di conseguenza Mrs Mogherini non ha diritto di intervenire in materia, cercando di assumere il ruolo di parte contraente. Una cosa è esprimere pareri politica, ed un’altra invece il farlo con autorità giuridicamente legale.

In terzo luogo, Mr Trump non ha violato nessun termine degli accordi: il provvedimento EO13846 stabilisce soltanto che le imprese che commercializzano o producono in Iran non saranno ammesse al mercato statunitense ed i loro beni confiscati. In altri termini, questo provvedimento inerisce le imprese europee, noni relativi governi né, tanto meno, l’Unione Europea.

In quarto luogo, sta di fatto come l’Unione Europea si sia fatta cogliere del tutto impreparata dalle mosse del presidente Trump. I dirigenti europei dovrebbero prendere atto come si possa ragionare ed agire anche in modo differente da come loro pensavano fosse l’unico modo possibile.

In quinto luogo, quattro quinti del commercio europeo con l’Iran è sostenuto da imprese tedesche, francesi, inglesi ed italiane, sicuramente europee ma non per questo rappresentative dell’Unione Europea.

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Sono tutte considerazioni che sembrerebbero esser degne di nota.


Al Arabiya. 2018-08-14. Europe’s dangerous illusions about Iran

It was an almost surrealistic scene the other day when the European Union’s foreign relations spokeswoman Federica Mogherini traveled halfway around the world to New Zealand to lobby for “continued trade with the Islamic Republic of Iran” in defiance of sanctions re-imposed by US President Donald Trump.

Here was an official of a bloc of democracies supposedly allied to the United States not only criticizing an American policy, something quite legitimate, but inviting others to oppose it with full resolve. Almost on the same day Alistair Burt, the minister in charge of the Middle East in the British Foreign Office, told BBC Radio 4 that the United Kingdom, still part of the EU, was adopting a similar position against Trump’s move.

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«By re-imposing some of the sanctions imposed by four of his predecessors, Trump may have been impolitic or provocative. But he has betrayed no signature and violated no treaty. All he has done is refusing to continue suspending some sanctions as Bill Clinton and Barack Obama had done before him»

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Illegitimate intervention.

To start with, they all insist that the so-called “nuke deal” concocted by former US President Barack Obama is inviolable because, in Mogherini’s words, the EU must “honor its signature.” However, the EU never signed the so-called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), nor did anyone else. There is no signature to honor or not.

In any case, though hovering on the sidelines like a ghost, the EU was never part of the negotiations that took place between Iran on one hand and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany on the other.

Moreover, the so-called 5+1 group that negotiated with the Islamic Republic was an informal group with absolutely no legal existence and certainly no legally binding mission and no mechanism for enforcing its decisions and answerability.

If Mogherini and Alistair Burt are serious in their campaign in favor of the JCPOA they should re-write it in the form of a treaty signed by EU members and ratified by their respective parliaments or at least the EU’s Council of Ministers. Even then, for JCPOA to acquire some legal dignity it would have to be re-written in the form of an act of parliament and submitted to the Islamic Majlis in Tehran for proper ratification according to the Iranian Constitution, something that the Islamic government is loathing to do.

All of that would require an agreement on a single official version of the deal, which means discarding the various English and Persian versions in circulation.

By re-imposing some of the sanctions imposed by four of his predecessors, Trump may have been impolitic or provocative. But he has betrayed no signature and violated no treaty. All he has done is refusing to continue suspending some sanctions as Bill Clinton and Barack Obama had done before him.

Other factors point to EU’s hypocrisy in this matter.

With the re-imposition of American sanctions, thousands of firms trading with both Iran and the US would face a dilemma: which of the two markets do they choose? It is not in the EU’s mandate to resolve that dilemma for them. So far, and at least two years after the ”nuke deal” was unveiled, European firms are not quite sure how or even if they can treat the Islamic Republic as a normal trading partner. Nor has the EU’s lobbying for the mullahs persuaded them to free a dozen European Union citizens still held hostage in Tehran about whom neither Mogherini nor Burt ever make a noise.

If sincere, the EU could use a range of tools at its disposal to encourage at least some firms to continue trading with Iran in areas affected by the re-imposed sanctions. Four-fifths of Iran’s trade with the EU bloc is with Germany, France, the UK and Italy. All those countries have well-established mechanisms for export protection but none is prepared to use them in support of trading with Iran. Interestingly, some of the sanctions that the EU is still keeping in place against Iran are tougher than those re-imposed by Trump.

Trump-bashing.

Leaving all that aside, the EU’s Trump-bashing on the issue will not change some facts. Even supposing the EU did something to render the re-imposed American sanctions less painful or utterly ineffective the concerns that Trump has raised about aspects of Tehran’s behavior would remain worthy of consideration by Europeans.

Shouldn’t one try to persuade or force Tehran to stop “exporting revolution” i.e. terror? Doesn’t peace and stability in the Middle East benefit from an end to Tehran’s meddling in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Bahrain, not to mention Afghanistan and Pakistan? Would it not be a good thing if the present rulers in Tehran allowed the Iranian people a greater space for self-expression and participation in shaping their nation’s destiny?

The EU could play a positive role by acting as a broker between Iran and the US rather than go for empty diplomatic gesticulations. The EU should seek to persuade Iran that its traditional cheat-and-retreat strategy peaked out under Obama and its pursuit would only lead to disaster.

Obama encouraged the mullahs in their reckless strategy by supposedly granting them “the right to enrich uranium” as Islamic Foreign Minister Mohammad-Javad Zarif goes around boasting. However, all nations have the right to enrich uranium if they so wish or even to build nuclear weapons.

The mullahs wanted another “victory over the Infidel” and Obama gave them the illusion of one through secret negotiations in Oman. Obama’s behavior persuaded the mullahs that regardless of what mischief they may make at home or abroad no one would make them pay a price for it.

Even better, a faux anti-American profile might give a morally bankrupt and repressive regime some prestige in parts of the world where anti-Americanism is the last refuge of every scoundrel. In a talk in New York in 2016, Zarif noted that without its “anti-Imperialist” profile the Islamic Republic would be “just another Pakistan”, which in his world view means a nobody.

Trump isn’t repeating Obama’s mistake by getting involved in secret shenanigans favored by the mullahs; he is playing above board. His message is, behave differently and you shall be treated differently.

That may or may not be the right policy, but it is at least a policy. The EU, on the other hand, has no policy on Iran apart from using it as an excuse for a little bit of Trump-bashing, a favorite global sport these days.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali

Btp. La grande fuga è iniziata e prosegue a spron battuto.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-08-18.

Michelangelo Buonarroti, Il diluvio universale

Michelangelo Buonarroti, Il diluvio universale, 1508-1512, Città del Vaticano (Roma), Cappella Sistina


Era più solido il ponte Morandi sul Polcevera che il debito sovrano nazionale.

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«Tra maggio e giugno gli investitori esteri hanno scaricato sul mercato oltre 58 miliardi di euro di titoli di Stato.»

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«prima della crisi finanziaria gli investitori esteri avevano in portafoglio il 50% del debito pubblico italiano …. è in mano estere per una quota di circa il 30 per cento»

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«Con una Bce che compra sempre di meno l’unica è affidarsi a banche e assicurazioni italiane»

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«sul fronte del patrimonio, il deprezzamento dei BTp rischia di avere conseguenze importanti»

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«La prima banca italiana, Intesa Sanpaolo, in occasione della presentazione dei conti semestrali, ha annunciato che l’aumento dello spread tra i titoli di Stato italiani e quelli tedeschi ha eroso il capitale di prima qualità (Core Tier 1) di 35 punti base»

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«La prima assicurazione italiana, Generali, ha comunicato di aver registrato un abbattimento del patrimonio di 1,33 miliardi di euro a causa dello stesso motivo»

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Riassumiamo.

Gli investitori, che detenevano il 50% del debito pubblico, sono scesi all’attuale 30%. Negli ultimi due mesi hanno venduto qualcosa come 58 miliardi di titoli.

Buon giorno, Italia! Ftse Mib -1.87%, Btp ancora in discesa. Aste deserte.

Con le aste deserte resta ben poco da fare.

Non è solo questione di aumento dei tassi di interesse, ma anche e soprattutto di fiducia nel sistema.

E nessuno, ma proprio nessuno, ha ancora fiducia nell’Italia.

Molto argutamente il giornalista del Sole 24 Ore suggerisce di costringere banche ed assicurazioni a comprare i titoli di stato.

Resta però irrisolto un banale problema: né le banche né le assicurazioni hanno disponibilità di quella entità. Nemmeno se li si bruciassero vivi.

Stranamente a nessuno viene in mente l’idea di ridurre il fabbisogno ed il debito pubblico.

Smettere di bere alcolici è molto più efficiente che curare meglio il coma etilico.

Nota.

Ma Voi, ve li siete fatti quattro conti?


Sole 24 Ore. 2018-08-18. Gli investitori esteri scaricano BTp per 58 miliardi tra maggio e giugno

In linea con quanto già visto a maggio, quando ci furono vendite nette per circa 25 miliardi, a giugno l’esposizione degli investitori esteri in BoT BTp si è ridotta di ben 33 miliardi di euro. Lo ha certificato ieri Bankitalia nel suo rapporto sulla bilancia dei pagamenti. I titoli governativi rappresentano il grosso delle vendite di titoli registrate a giugno. Tenendo conto di altri strumenti di debito come i bond societari le vendite complessive nette di strumenti di debito emessi in Italia da parte degli investitori esteri è stata pari a 38,3 miliardi. A giugno, segnala sempre Bankitalia, gli investitori esteri hanno ridotto anche la loro esposizione netta sul mercato azionario per circa 4 miliardi di euro.

Tra maggio e giugno gli investitori esteri hanno scaricato sul mercato oltre 58 miliardi di euro di titoli di Stato. Numeri da allarme rosso per un Paese come l’Italia che ha un debito pubblico di 2323 miliardi di euro che è in mano estere per una quota di circa il 30 per cento. Una quota che si è ridotta nel corso degli anni se si pensa che prima della crisi finanziaria gli investitori esteri avevano in portafoglio il 50% del debito pubblico italiano. Questa riduzione è un fatto in parte positivo perché in caso di crisi finanziaria poter contare su un maggiore sostegno degli investitori domestici è una garanzia.

È anche vero tuttavia che la riduzione della quota di investitori esteri di questi anni è andata di pari passo con l’ingresso sul mercato di un soggetto chiave: la Bce che, con l’avvio del Quantitative easing, è diventata uno dei principali detentori del nostro debito pubblico: ne ha per circa 384 miliardi. In prospettiva tuttavia il suo contributo è destinato a ridursi visto che la Bce ha in programma la fine del Quantitative easing. È in questo contesto che le vendite di titoli di Stato da parte degli investitori esteri (58 miliardi in appena due mesi) sono una notizia preoccupante. Con una Bce che compra sempre di meno l’unica è affidarsi a banche e assicurazioni italiane. Ma anche per loro aumentare la quota di BTp in portafoglio è rischioso. Se è vero infatti che potrebbero beneficiare dell’aumento dei tassi di interesse in conto economico è anche vero che, sul fronte del patrimonio, il deprezzamento dei BTp rischia di avere conseguenze importanti.

La prima banca italiana, Intesa Sanpaolo, in occasione della presentazione dei conti semestrali, ha annunciato che l’aumento dello spread tra i titoli di Stato italiani e quelli tedeschi ha eroso il capitale di prima qualità (Core Tier 1) di 35 punti base. La prima assicurazione italiana, Generali, ha comunicato di aver registrato un abbattimento del patrimonio di 1,33 miliardi di euro a causa dello stesso motivo. E anche istituzioni più piccole, come Fineco Bank nel mondo creditizio e Sara in quello assicurativo, hanno indicato in questi giorni effetti simili sui conti semestrali.

Pubblicato in: Amministrazione, Banche Centrali, Senza categoria, Stati Uniti, Trump

Trump. T2. Personal income tax balza a 1.4$ trilioni di dollari.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-08-18.

Trump Vincitore

Il Bureau of Fiscal Service, US Department of Treasury, ha rilasciato il report

Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS).

Del più recente aggiornamento è disponibile un pdf.

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Nel secondo trimestre le entrate fiscali da tasse su persone sono ammontate ad 1.4 trilioni di dollari.

Questo è uno degli effetti del grande taglio delle tasse praticato mesi or sono dalla Amministrazione Trump.

E sono passati soltanto pochi mesi, ma il cresciuto benessere della popolazione è palpabile, tangibile.

A cosa mai servirebbe lo stato se non a far star bene la gente comune?


Sean Hannity. 2018-08-13. Great again: US Government Collects record tax haul in July

The United States treasury collected the highest level of personal income tax on record in July 2018, smashing estimates and taking-in more than $1.4 trillion just months after President Trump signed the sweeping tax overhaul into law.

According to CNS News, the federal government collected its highest recorded level of personal income tax on record in the second quarter of 2018 at $1,415,150,000,000; topping the previous record in the first ten months of 2017.

“In addition to the individual income taxes and corporation income taxes, the total taxes the federal government collected in October through July included $978,254,000,000 in Social Security and other payroll taxes; $70,755,000,000 in excise taxes; $18,761,000,000 in estate and gift taxes; $32,477,000,000 in customs duties; and $84,688,000,000 in miscellaneous revenues,” writes CNS.

The strong economic data may spell disaster for Democratic challengers just months before the 2018 midterm elections, with liberal candidates vowing to repeal the “GOP tax scam” should they retake control of Congress this fall.


Cns. 2018-08-13. Feds Collect Record Individual Income Taxes Through July; Still Run $683.9B Deficit

The federal government collected a record $1,415,150,000,000 in individual income taxes through the first ten months of fiscal 2018 (October 2017 through July 2018), according to the Monthly Treasury Statement.

But the federal government also ran a $683,965,000,000 deficit for those ten months, according to the statement.

The previous record for individual income tax collections in the first ten months of the fiscal year was in fiscal 2017, when the Treasury collected $1,351,409,020,000 in individual income taxes (in constant July 2018 dollars) in the October through July period.

Despite the record amount in individual income taxes collected in the first ten months of this fiscal year, overall federal tax collections declined in the first ten months of this fiscal year compared to last year. In the October-through-July period of fiscal 2017, the Treasury collected $2,820,673,610,000 in total taxes. In the October-through-July period of this fiscal year, the Treasury collected only $2,766,071,000,000.

While individual income taxes collected in the first ten month of the fiscal year increased from 2017 to 2018, corporation income tax collections declined. In the October-through-July period of fiscal 2017, the Treasury collected $239,013,770,000 in corporation income taxes (in constant July 2018 dollars). In the October-through-July period of fiscal 2018, the Treasury collected $166,004,000,000 in corporation income taxes.

In addition to the individual income taxes and corporation income taxes, the total taxes the federal government collected in October through July included $978,254,000,000 in Social Security and other payroll taxes; $70,755,000,000 in excise taxes; $18,761,000,000 in estate and gift taxes; $32,477,000,000 in customs duties; and $84,688,000,000 in miscellaneous revenues.

The federal government ran a $683,965,000,000 deficit in October through July of fiscal 2018 because while collecting its $2,766,071,000,000 in total taxes, it spent $3,450,035,000,000.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Svezia. Elezioni 2018. Le previsioni sono ancora molto incerte.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-08-18.

Bandiere_Sweden

«The Sweden election campaigns have seen the eurosceptic party the Sweden Democrats slide back to third place in the latest poll, after topping the three previous polls»

*

«The Sweden Democrats currently sit behind the Social Democrat Party (SAP) and the Sweden Green Party, with just a month to go before the country’s national elections»

*

«For 60 years until the early 1990s, the SAP [Social Democrat Party] received more than 40 percent of the election votes. On several occasions they achieved more than half of the votes and held an overall majority of the seats in the Swedish Parliament»

*

«The Sweden election could see the eurosceptic Sweden Democrats become kingmaker as polls show the party makes great gains against the governing Social Democrats.»

*

«The rightwingers topped three previous polls in July and August, gaining popularity for their anti-immigration stance»

* * * * * * *

Tra un mese circa si andrà a votare per le elezioni politiche in Svezia.

Le previsioni attualmente disponibili indicherebbero come nessun partito possa ottenere la maggioranza dei seggi, motivo per cui si dovrà addivenire ad una coalizione di governo.

Si dovrebbe evidenziare il calo del partito socialista e la presenza di un solido partito fortemente avverso all’attuale dirigenza europea.

Sembrerebbe ripetersi il quadro politico che si era verificato in Germania lo scorso anno.

Anche in questa situazione lo Sweden Democrats potrebbe concorrere a destabilizzare il sistema.

A ben pensarci, questa ultima evenienza potrebbe anche essere ben più vantaggiosa che la conquista del governo.


Express. 2018-08-13. Sweden election polls shows eurosceptics third as leaders face WORST result in 100 years

The Sweden election campaigns have seen the eurosceptic party the Sweden Democrats slide back to third place in the latest poll, after topping the three previous polls.

*

The Sweden Democrats currently sit behind the Social Democrat Party (SAP) and the Sweden Green Party, with just a month to go before the country’s national elections.

The left-leaning Social Democrats are leading with 26 percent of the vote, while the Sweden Democrats are third at 16.8 percent in the poll carried out by Sifo between August 6-9.

The Sweden Democrats’ results are more than a 2 percent drop than the previous poll earlier this month by Inizo, which placed them at 19.1 percent.

The hardline SD party entered the Swedish Parliament for the first time in 2010. In 2014 they became the third largest party in the country after receiving 12.9 percent of the votes.

In 2015, the right-wing SD party pushed back against the arrival of 163,000 asylum-seekers to Sweden in 2015 during the refugee crisis.

It helped contribute to the increase of the foreign-born population from 11 percent at the turn of the century to 18 percent this year.

The rightwingers topped three previous polls in July and August, gaining popularity for their anti-immigration stance.

The Social Democrats, led by Stefan Loven, need 24 percent to give them a majority in September – but analysts say it would still be their worst result in an election since 1912.

For 60 years until the early 1990s, the SAP received more than 40 percent of the election votes. On several occasions they achieved more than half of the votes and held an overall majority of the seats in the Swedish Parliament.

Meanwhile, the Green Party saw a rise in votes to 5.6 percent, in the wake of the recent wildfire crisis that swept through the country this summer.

Blazes raged through Sweden, prompting firefighters to battle the worst drought in 74 years, and led to the government appealing for help from other countries.

Analysts believe the Green Party lost the last election due to directing their campaign against the Swedish Democrats and not concentrating on environmental issues.

Toivo Sjörén, Sifo’s opinion manager said of the new results: “Environmental parties still have the highest confidence in the climate and environmental issues. With the summer’s extreme weather and fires, it appears heavily in the election campaign.”

The latest poll was conducted between August 6 – 9 and polled 2,294 randomly selected interviewees over 18-years-old.


Express. 2018-08-13. Sweden election: Eurosceptic Sweden Democrats devastate socialist vote in latest polls

The Sweden election could see the eurosceptic Sweden Democrats become kingmaker as polls show the party makes great gains against the governing Social Democrats.

*

In the latest opinion poll, the nationalist party yet again built on its meteoric rise, placing ahead of the conservative Moderate Party making it look increasingly likely they will become country’s second largest party.

The Sweden Democrats has gained support in the polls as it focuses its campaign on refugees and migrants ahead of the September election.

It scored 22 percent in the latest poll – only two points behind the leftist Social Democrats and three percent ahead of the Moderates – as establishment parties continue to lose ground.

The poll by Novus, carried out between June 25 and July 22, found Stefan Löfven’s Social Democrats topped the list with 24 percent. The party is plummeting in popularity compared to four years ago when they entered into a left-wing coalition with the Green Party with 31 percent of the vote.

The Sweden Democrats, led by Jimmie Åkesson, is set for its best ever election result on September 9 and is projected to win 76 seats – adding 27 to its current total.

The Sweden Democrats have earned support for demanding a migration freeze and a crackdown on crime.

According to the Novus poll, which surveyed the voting intentions of 4,808 people aged 18 and above, a leftist coalition formed by the Social Democrats, Greens and the socialist Left party would be able to form a minority government with 38 percent of the vote.

The Alliance, formed by the Moderates, Centre Party, Liberals and Christian Democrats, would fall just short with 36 percent.

But with votes so close, the deadlock could make the Sweden Democrats kingmakers, depending on how willing the opposition parties would be to deprive them of their casting vote.

Many observers believe Mr Åkesson is setting the political agenda in the Nordic nation.

Earlier this month he said the the Sweden Democrats’ hard-line policies were driven by “love and confidence” in Sweden.

He added: “If we are the second biggest or biggest party in parliament and the other parties still believe we can be ignored, and pretend we don’t exist, then we must flex our muscles.”

Pubblicato in: Sistemi Economici, Sistemi Politici

Arridateci il vecchio caro Demetriano.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-08-17.

2018-08-17__Ponti__001Ponte Sant’Angelo (nome ufficiale: ponte S. Angelo), noto anche come pons Aelius (ponte Elio), pons Hadriani (ponte di Adriano) o ponte di Castello, è un ponte che collega piazza di Ponte S. Angelo al lungotevere Vaticano, a Roma, nei rioni Ponte e Borgo.
Fu costruito a Roma nel 134 dall’imperatore Adriano per collegare alla riva sinistra il suo mausoleo. Si tramanda il nome dell’architetto Demetriano.

Ha resistito agli imperatori romani, al sacco di Roma del 410, a quello dei lanzichenecchi del 6 maggio 1527, ai bombardamenti americani dell’ultima guerra. Ha retto tutte le ventisette esondazioni storicamente riportate del Tevere, oltre che ad undici terremoti.

È sopravissuto persino alle giunte di sinistra!

E funziona ancora egregiamente.

Al sodo: ridateci l’architetto Demetriano!

Nota.

Adriano era un fior di galantumo, che faceva decapitare gli archietti incapaci.

Pubblicato in: Demografia, Stati Uniti

Stati Uniti. Il crollo della nascite yankee si associa a quello dei democratici.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-08-17.

2016-11-09__Stati_Americani__001

L’Università del Wisconsin – Madison, si è dotata del laboratorio Apl.

«The Applied Population Laboratory (APL) is a group of research and outreach professionals in the Department of Community and Environmental Sociology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.»

Questo Laboratorio lavora in stretto contatto con il Census Bureau.

«APL has an affiliation with the U.S. Census Bureau through the State Data Center Program, a network of state and university agencies across the country partnering with the Census Bureau to provide access to census data and products, training related to census data and products, and feedback to the U.S. Census Bureau. The APL shares responsibilities with the Wisconsin Demographic Services Center for providing the State Data Center function for the state of Wisconsin. In this role, the APL disseminates data and provides outreach, training, and technology transfer focused on U.S. Census Bureau products and programs which respond to the needs of data users at the local level.»

*

«Our demographic specialists can develop estimates and projections at a variety of scales, from local to national. The APL team has particular expertise in helping school districts plan for the future with enrollment projections. Our goal is to not only produce estimates and projections products, but to help our clients understand past and current trends and to prepare for a changing demographic future.»

* * * * * * *

Di questi tempi l’Applied Population Lab è uscito con un ponderoso Report:

White Deaths Exceed Births in a Majority of U.S. States

Sarebbe opportuno leggerlo in toto non solo per la sua portata demografica, ma anche perché alle mutazioni demografiche si accompagnano mutazioni politiche.

Data la lunghezza del Report, ne riporteremo solo alcuni abstract, anche se il testo del presente articolo è scritto sulla scorta del Report nella sua globalità.

* * * * * * *

«In 2016, more non-Hispanic whites died than were born in twenty-six states; more than at any time in U.S. history.»

*

«Some 179 million residents or roughly 56 percent of the U.S. population, lived in these 26 states»

*

«In contrast, non-Hispanic white (hereafter referred to as white) deaths exceeded births in just four states in 2004 and seventeen as recently as 2014.»

*

«White deaths also exceeded white births in the nation as a whole for the first time in U.S. history in 2016, according to data from the National Center for Health Statistics.»

*

«the substantial surplus of Latino births over deaths together with past immigration have contributed enormously to the growing diversity of the United States»

*

«the rising incidence of white natural decrease due to aging and below-replacement fertility among the 61 percent of the population who are white»

*

«The white natural loss of 39,000 in 2016 compares to a natural gain of 393,000 in 1999»

*

«In 2016, whites accounted for 77.7 percent of all U.S. deaths, but just 53.1 percent of births.»

*

«Demographers use the birth-to-death ratio (BDR) to track the changing relationship between fertility and mortality in a population. For whites, the BDR fell from 1.21 in 2000 to just 0.98 in 2016»

*

«there were 4.9 Latino birth for every Latino death, 3.9 Asian births for every Asian death and 1.7 African American birth for every African American death»

*

«Several states have protracted white natural decrease. It has been occurring for more than a decade in Florida, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, West Virginia, California, New Mexico and Connecticut»

*

«state-level white natural decrease is occurring in populous states with diverse economies and numerous metropolitan areas such as California, Florida, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Arizona, Massachusetts and more recently in Ohio and Michigan.»

*

«First, the percentage of the white population that is 65 and older in 2016 reflects the age structure of the state»

*

«Second, the percentage of white women who are in their childbearing years (15–44) in 2016 signifies the relative share of women who are capable of giving birth»

*

«Third, the white total fertility rate in 2016 represents the average number of births per woman in each state»

*

«Fourth, the percentage of white females less than 15 years of age represents the future cohorts who will enter their childbearing years in the near future»

*

«The white population is aging rapidly, as reflected in a rise in the median age for whites from 39 in 2000 to 43 in 2016. During the same period, the percentage of persons 65 and older increased from 15 percent of the white population in 2000 to 19 percent in 2016»

*

«Previous research suggests that natural decrease is more likely when there are fewer women of childbearing age. Overall, the number of white women of childbearing age (15–44) declined by 5.1 million between 2000 and 2016, or 12.5 percent»

*

«Nearly 55 percent of the early natural-decrease states are in the lowest fertility category»

*

«just 11.9 percent of New Mexico’s white females are under the age of 15, compared to 23.2 percent of those in Utah.»

*

«The Latino population is considerably younger (median age of 29 in 2016) and has moderately higher fertility rates than the white population, so Latino births exceeded deaths by a substantial margin in all fifty states and the District of Columbia»

*

«In California, for example, the Latino natural increase of 179,400 was far greater than the 25,300 natural decrease of whites. However, in the other nine states, the natural decline of whites was greater than the Latino natural increase»

*

«The first is the significant decline in U.S. fertility fostered by the Great Recession. Some 500,000 fewer babies are being born annually now than had pre-recession fertility rates been sustained. And, nearly 2.1 million more women of prime childbearing age are childless than would be expected»

*

«As white natural increase has diminished, the share of the U.S. population that is white has declined from 79.6 percent in 1980 to 61.3 percent in 2016. Census Bureau projections suggest that the white population will begin to decline in absolute numbers between 2030 and 2040, and that by 2050 whites will constitute less than half (47 percent) of the U.S. population.»

*

«the youth population—increasingly a population of color—will require major investments in education and training if the United States is to maintain a productive workforce in an increasingly competitive technological and global labor market.»

*

«In Europe, overall deaths exceed births in seventeen countries. Compared to the United States, European fertility rates are lower, the population is considerably older, and there are fewer women of childbearing age»

* * * * * * * *

Gli Stati Uniti di America stanno passando un momento di crisi di crescita, di grandi mutamenti.

America. I numeri della mutazione in atto.

Statistical Portrait of the Foreign-Born Population in the United States

America. 44.752 milioni sotto la soglia di povertà.

Una Collettività è equa e vivibile quando tutti stiano ragionevolmente bene: se poi qualcuno vivesse meglio degli altri, ben per lui. Non è problema l’incidenza dei ricchi e nemmeno la loro opulenza: il vero problema è che la povertà e la miseria non sono combattibili con i sussidi, bensì con la generazione di posti di lavoro dignitosi.

I liberal democratici americani hanno clamorosamente fallito in questo settore, e non solo in questo.

Il dato di fatto è che la popolazione bianca non prolifica: dapprima si ridurrà numericamente e quindi si avvierà a scomparire. È un fenomeno storicamente riscontrabile solo risalendo nel tempo fino al periodo del basso impero romano.

Da questo studio emerge chiaramente come il crollo delle nascite dei bianchi sia principalmente addensato negli stati dichiaratamente liberal, quali la California.

Questo è il frutto della Weltanschauung liberal, che rinnega la tradizione religiosa, storica sociale e culturale del popolo americano, ed ha fatto propria bandiera la lotta alla famiglia concepita come unione di un maschio con una femmina, al fine di procreare ed allevare la prole.

I liberal odiano la famiglia ed hanno fatto di tutto per demolirla con istituto. Si va da un femminismo che esalta la femmina sterile perché tale vuole essere, alla facilitazione giuridica di separazione e divorzio, alla campagna anticoncezionale, per finire all’aborto.

Secondo l’Alan Guttmacher Institute, nel 2014 gli aborti sono stati 926,200. Per la prima volta poi nello studio si ammette che tale decrescita è parzialmente dovuta all’attività delle associazioni pro life e al riconoscimento negli ultimi anni di diverse leggi in alcuni stati americani che hanno reso più difficoltoso per le donne poter abortire.

Avere 926,200 morti ammazzati sulla coscienza è invero gran peso

Senza aborti, i bianchi avrebbero un saldo più che attivo.

I liberal democratici bramano estinguersi, e questo sarebbe problema loro, se non avesse anche conseguenze politiche ed economiche non da poco.

Al decrescere dei bianchi fa riscontro l’incremento demografico degli ispanoamericani, la Weltanschauung dei quali differisce profondamente da quella liberal, e che Mr Trump ha saputo magistralmente interpretare.

Si prenda atto di questa realtà.

Pubblicato in: Commercio, Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Stati Uniti, Trump, Unione Europea

Trump. Sanzionare l’Iran per distruggere la Germania, meglio Frau Merkel. – Handelsblatt.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-08-17.

Ivan Iv. Il Terribile. 001. Viktor Michajlovič Vasnecov. Ivan IV il Terribile

Gran brutta cosa essere ideologizzati, assumendone i dogmi come fossero credo religioso non soggetto alla revisione critica della ragione. Pensiero ed azione diventano deliri coatti del tutto avulsi dalla realtà fattuale. Si pensa e si attua ciò che teoria impone, non ciò che sia retto, giusto e logico.

Se poi alla dipendenza dall’ideologia si associasse una smisurata superbia ed un inflessibile orgoglio si vivrebbe un delirio onirico caratterizzato da allucinazioni di grandezza autoreferenziale.

Potrebbero sembrare parole dure, ma sono invece mera constatazione di un dato di fatto. È nei fatti un delirio di onnipotenza: ma basta un nonnulla e la realtà strangola.

*

Nel novembre 2016 la dirigenza europea, Mr Juncker, Mr Hollande e Frau Merkel nutrivano la certezza assoluta che Mrs Hillary Clinton ed i liberal democratici avrebbero stravinto le elezioni presidenziali: una incapacità di vedere e percepire la realtà del tutto anomala per capi di governo. Arrivarono al punto di mandare a Mr Trump le congratulazioni per la nomina oltre una settimana dopo le elezioni, comportamento che da un punto di vista diplomatico corrisponde ad uno sgarro severo. Quindi ne dissero tutto il male possibile, denigrandolo in ogni modo e maniera: ma le loro invettive si rilevarono presto essere altamente controproducenti. Ma chi mai si credevano di essere?

*

Le parole della Bundeskanzlerin Frau Merkel furono chiare:

«we Europeans must really take our fate into our own hands» [Bundeskanzlerin Frau Merkel – NYT]

*

«really take our fate into our own hands.» [Bundeskanzlerin Frau Merkel – Cnn]

*

I tedeschi sono in un vicolo cieco, dal quale non potranno uscirne se non a costo di immani disastri: sono strategicamente battuti, proprio come cento anni or sono lo furono alla battaglia di Amiens, che decretò la fine della prima guerra mondiale. Adesso stiamo assisitendo alla sua agonia.

Germania. La demografia che stritola. Mancano tre milioni di lavoratori. – Vbw.

Germania. Realtà geografica, non più umana, politica ed economica.

Germania. Non è povera. È misera. – Financial Times.

Germania. 13 milioni di poveri e 330,000 famiglie con la luce tagliata.

*

Stiamo adesso assistendo ad un progressivo ripudio fatto dalla confindustria tedesca nei confronti dei liberal socialisti e, soprattutto, di Frau Merkel.

Merkel, Trump e G20. Vincere o morire. – Handelsblatt.

Industriali tedeschi: Trump ha ragione e Merkel torto. – Handelsblatt.

Questa Unione Europea si sta collassando. – Handelsblatt.

Germania. ‘Conservative Manifesto’ vuole defenestrare Frau Merkel.

*

L’Unione Europea e Frau Merkel si sono sempre opposte fieramente alle sanzioni poste dagli Stati Uniti all’Iran. Usarono anche parole grondanti di orgoglio.

Europe requests exemptions from Trump’s Iran sanctions for energy, aviation and more [Cnbc]

«”As allies, we expect that the United States will refrain from taking action to harm Europe’s security interests.” [Frau Merkel»

EU sets course for US clash with law blocking Iran sanctions

«The EU has put itself on a collision course with the US over Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the nuclear deal with Iran, as major European firms started to pull out of the country to avoid being hit by sanctions.

In an attempt to shield EU companies doing business with Iran, the European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, said he would turn to a plan last used to protect businesses working in Cuba before a US trade embargo was lifted on the Latin American country.

“We will begin the ‘blocking statute’ process, which aims to neutralise the extraterritorial effects of US sanctions in the EU. We must do it and we will do it tomorrow [Friday] morning at 10.30,” he said at the end of a summit in the Bulgarian capital, Sofia.»

*

EU To Activate ‘Blocking Statute’ Against U.S. Sanctions On Iran

«Speaking after a meeting of EU leaders in Sofia, Bulgaria, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker told a news conference that the EU will launch on May 18 the process of activating its so-called blocking statute.

“We have to protect our companies. We have to protect mainly those who bona fide — mainly small and medium-sized enterprises — did invest in Iran, and we cannot leave them alone,” he said.»

* * *

Alla fine Mr Trump perse la pazienza.

Trump. Colpire l’Europa attraverso la Turkia. Knockout.

Trump. Executive Order EO13846. Della vera novità nessuno ne parla.

Mr Trump aveva semplicemente ignorato eurodirigenza e governi europei, ottenendo in questa maniera il massimo risultato con il mimino sforzo. Non solo, Mr Trump aveva piantato un cuneo tra il governo tedesco e la realtà del comparto produttivo e commerciale, ponendoli in un’antitesi di vita o di morte.

Frau Merkel è diventata il nemico numero uno della confindustria tedesca,

«Anyone doing business with Iran will not be doing business with the United States»

Visto? Basta una riga per piegare l’altera Frau Merkel.

«Even as European leaders oppose the measure, the likes of Daimler and Siemens are scrambling to comply rather than risk disruption of their US business»

*

«How quickly they caved — Daimler, Volkswagen, Siemens, Bayer and many others. Despite all the brave words of defiance when the US announced renewed sanctions against Iran, German firms are suspending business with the Middle Eastern country now that they are in place for fear of President Donald Trump’s wrath»

*

«Whatever German executives might think about the wisdom or legality of the sanctions, the US market is simply too important to risk disruptions»

*

«The Berlin government has pledged to find ways to protect German companies from secondary sanctions, but they seem to prefer the safer path of not flouting sanctions to begin with»

*

«Daimler, the maker of Mercedes-Benz luxury vehicles, announced as soon as the sanctions became effective on Tuesday that it has suspended its “activities in Iran in accordance with applicable sanctions until further notice.”»

*

«Oil and gas producer Wintershall said it will close down its office in Tehran»

*

«VW warned that the truck and bus sales of its Scania unit in Iran could be completely lost»

*

«Siemens said it is taking measures to make its business activities conform to the “changed multilateral framework.”»

*

«Chemicals giant Bayer and consumer goods producer Henkel said they are reviewing their Iran business.»

*

«On the face of it, the US threat puts German firms in a quandary. “Adherence to US sanctions can conflict with EU law, which can be an offense in Germany that carries a fine of up to €500,000,” said Constantin Lauterwein of the law firm Hengeler Mueller. “At the same time, ignoring US sanctions can be a major disadvantage, especially in terms of access to the US market.”»

*

«The showdown over sanctions demonstrates once again the economic clout of the United States, severely restricting the ability of Germany or any other European country to follow a different policy»

*

«The gap between Europe’s aspirations as a wannabe great power and its impotence in the face of US power is as wide as ever»

*

«Then as now, US officials will not be paying much attention to the damage inflicted on European companies through the sanctions»

* * * * * * * *

Ci sarebbero molti validi motivi per dubitare di questa ultima affermazione: tutta questa operazione è stata condotta per obbligare i governi europei a togliersi lo scolapasta dalla testa e rientrare nei ranghi.

Nulla è più apprezzabile di un governo che eserciti la Realpolitik.


Handelsblatt. 2018-08-12. German firms bend to US sanctions, cutting ties to Iran

Even as European leaders oppose the measure, the likes of Daimler and Siemens are scrambling to comply rather than risk disruption of their US business.

*

How quickly they caved — Daimler, Volkswagen, Siemens, Bayer and many others. Despite all the brave words of defiance when the US announced renewed sanctions against Iran, German firms are suspending business with the Middle Eastern country now that they are in place for fear of President Donald Trump’s wrath.

“Anyone doing business with Iran will NOT be doing business with the United States,” the US president tweeted unequivocally on Tuesday.

Whatever German executives might think about the wisdom or legality of the sanctions, the US market is simply too important to risk disruptions. The Berlin government has pledged to find ways to protect German companies from secondary sanctions, but they seem to prefer the safer path of not flouting sanctions to begin with.

Firms adapt to ‘changed multilateral framework’

Daimler, the maker of Mercedes-Benz luxury vehicles, announced as soon as the sanctions became effective on Tuesday that it has suspended its “activities in Iran in accordance with applicable sanctions until further notice.”

Oil and gas producer Wintershall said it will close down its office in Tehran. VW warned that the truck and bus sales of its Scania unit in Iran could be completely lost. Siemens said it is taking measures to make its business activities conform to the “changed multilateral framework.” Chemicals giant Bayer and consumer goods producer Henkel said they are reviewing their Iran business.

The US said it would renew sanctions when it unilaterally pulled out of the Iran nuclear accord in May. European allies, including Germany, opposed the move and said they will uphold their end of the agreement.

Mr. Trump considered the accord reached by his predecessor, Barack Obama, to lift sanctions in exchange for Iran suspending development of nuclear weapons to be a bad deal, too full of holes to be effective. European countries fear that abandoning the accord will lead to accelerated development of nuclear weapons in Iran.

Europe’s aspirations vs reality

On the face of it, the US threat puts German firms in a quandary. “Adherence to US sanctions can conflict with EU law, which can be an offense in Germany that carries a fine of up to €500,000,” said Constantin Lauterwein of the law firm Hengeler Mueller. “At the same time, ignoring US sanctions can be a major disadvantage, especially in terms of access to the US market.”

The showdown over sanctions demonstrates once again the economic clout of the United States, severely restricting the ability of Germany or any other European country to follow a different policy. The gap between Europe’s aspirations as a wannabe great power and its impotence in the face of US power is as wide as ever.

The so-called “blocking statute” put into place by the European Union is not much help. The measure “allows EU operators to recover damages arising from US extraterritorial sanctions from the persons causing them and nullifies the effect in the EU of any foreign court rulings based on them,” the European Commission said in a press release Monday. It also forbids EU persons from complying with those sanctions.

However, Mr. Lautwein said it isn’t likely to bring a wave of lawsuits. Who is the person causing the losses – a government, a bank, a company? How do you quantify the damage?

Washington has promised further sanctions for November, directly targeting Iran’s oil and gas exports, if Tehran does not meet its demands regarding uranium enrichment and supporting terror. Then as now, US officials will not be paying much attention to the damage inflicted on European companies through the sanctions.