Pubblicato in: Economia e Produzione Industriale, Stati Uniti

Buffett Indicator. 2021-07-29. Valore attuale 236%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-02.

2021-08-02__ Buffett 001

«By our calculation that is currently 89% (or about 2.9 standard deviations) above the historical average, suggesting that the market is Strongly Overvalued. These are historical, all-time highs. However, with interest rates at historic lows, there is reason to suspect that “this time is different” may hold true.»

* * * * * * *

                         Theory & Data.

The Buffett Indicator is the ratio of total US stock market valuation to GDP. Named after Warren Buffett, who called the ratio “the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment”. (Buffett has since walked back those comments, hesitating to endorse any single measure as either comprehensive or consistent over time, but this ratio remains credited to his name). To calculate the ratio, we need to get data for both metrics: Total Market Value and GDP.

                         Total Market Value

The most common measurement of the aggregate value of the US stock market is the Wilshire 5000. This is available directly from Wilshire (links to all data sources below), with monthly data starting in 1971, and daily measures beginning in 1980. The Wilshire index was created such that a 1-point increase in the index corresponds to a $1 billion increase in US market cap. Per Wilshire, that 1:1 ratio has drifted, and as of Dec 2013 a 1-point increase in the index corresponded to a $1.15 billion dollar increase. We adjust the data back to inception (and projected going forward) on a straight-line basis to compensate for this drift. For example, the Sep 2020 Wilshire Index of 35,807 corresponds to a total real market cap value of $42.27T USD.

For data prior to 1970 (where Wilshire data is not available) we use the Z.1 Financial Account – Nonfinancial corporate business; corporate equities; liability, Level, published by the Federal Reserve, which provides a quarterly estimate of total market value back to 1945. In order to integrate the datasets, we index the Z.1 data to match up to the 1970 Wilshire starting point.

Combined, these data make our Composite US Stock Market Value data series, shown below. Our current estimate of composite US stock market value is $54.5T.

                         GDP

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) represents the total production of the US economy. This is measured quarterly by the US Government’s Bureau of Economic Analysis. The GDP is a static measurement of prior economic activity – it does not forecast the future or include any expectation or valuation of future economic activity or economic growth. The GDP is calculated and published quarterly, several months in arrears, such that by the time the data is published it is several months old. In order to provide updated data for the most recent quarter we use the most recent GDPNow estimate published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Based on this, our current estimate of (annualized) GDP is $23.1T. A historical chart of GDP is shown below.

                         The Ratio of the Two

Given that the stock market value represents expectations of future economic activity, and the GDP is a measure of most recent actual economic activity, the ratio of these two data series represents expected future returns relative to current performance. This is similar in nature to how we think about the PE ratio of a particular stock. It stands to reason that this ratio would remain relatively stable over time, and increase slowly as technology allows for the same labor and capital to be used ever more efficiently.

Now, let’s look at how the Buffett Indicator has changed in the last ~75 years.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo

Giornalisti ricattati dalla politica e dalle intelligence. Il caso di Herr Udo Ulfkotte.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-02.

2021-07-13__ Udo Ulfkotte 001

«Udo Ulfkotte (Lippstadt, 20 gennaio 1960 – 13 gennaio 2017) è stato un giornalista tedesco. Ha lavorato come editore presso il quotidiano la Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ).

Ulfkotte è diventato celebre nel 2014 con la pubblicazione del libro Gekaufte Journalisten, «Giornalisti comprati» in cui ha rivelato di essere stato per 17 anni al soldo della CIA e quindi degli USA e come la CIA stessa ed altre agenzie di servizi segreti (tra cui la BND, l’intelligence tedesca) paghino soldi ai giornalisti occidentali per porre talune notizie in una luce a loro favorevole, quando non apertamente propagandistica o pro-NATO, lasciando intendere a questi giornalisti che potrebbero facilmente perdere il loro lavoro nei media se non rispettassero «l’agenda pro-occidentale». Avendo confessato di essere malato e prossimo alla morte, avrebbe deciso di svelare gli intrighi e gli accordi esistenti e nascosti sui quali si basa la società mondiale.

Fu trovato morto nella sua abitazione il 13 gennaio del 2017. Alcuni hanno avanzato sospetti sulle cause della morte, anche perché il governo tedesco ha dichiarato si trattasse di infarto e senza alcuna autopsia è stato cremato, togliendo così per sempre ogni possibilità di indagini più corrette ed approfondite.» [Fonte]

* * * * * * *

«Udo Ulfkotte  è morto, improvvisamente, dicono di attacco cardiaco.  Aveva 56 a  anni»

«Ulfkotte era il giornalista, che, dopo aver lavorato al Frankgfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, rivelò come lui ed altre “firme”   fossero al soldo dei servizi americani»

«Il suo libro, “Giornalisti Comprati” (2014), descrive i metodi con cui la Cia imbecca, istruisce, paga (fino a 20 mila dollari) giornalisti  tedeschi ma anche italiani  perché scrivano articoli favorevoli alle politiche americane»

«Prima di tutto …. è necessario rendere autorevole il giornalista a libro paga, facendo riportare i suoi articoli, dandogli copertura internazionale e premiando i suoi libri»

«Molti premi letterari non sono che premi alla fedeltà propagandistica»

«In occasione della  crisi libica del 2011, …. fu  imbeccato dai servizi germanici perché annunciasse sul suo giornale, come fosse un fatto assodato, che Gheddafi era in possesso di armi chimiche ed era pronto ad usarle contro il suo popolo inerme»

«→→ Se invece si trasgredisce la linea filoatlantica le conseguenze sono altrettanto note, ovvero la perdita del lavoro, il triste isolamento professionale, fino alle minacce dirette e alle persecuzioni (lui stesso sostiene di aver subito sei perquisizioni nella sua abitazione con l’accusa di aver rivelato segreti di stato) ←←»

«Insomma è stato il primo a rendere pubblico il fatto che i media scrivono “fake news” (notizie false)  a pagamento»

«Oggi sono i media ad accusare i social di diffondere notizie false»

«“Die Asyl Industrie”, “Mekka Deutschland” sono i titoli dei suoi più recenti saggi»

«24 ore dopo era morto»

* * * * * * *

Conscio di essere prossimo alla morte, Herr Udo Ulfkotte ha messo nero su bianco la condizione di ricatto cui soggiacciono i giornalisti bramosi di fare carriera, della riverita notorietà, del successo.

Nel più perfetto stile mafioso, Herr Udo Ulfkotte ha pagato con la vita il fatto di aver detto la verità.

Ma non ci si illuda che le diverse intelligence ricattino soltanto i giornalisti.

Lo stesso vale, ed anche a maggior ragione, per molti uomini politici.

E chi fosse una voce fuori dal coro sarebbe subito etichettato come ‘populista’ o, per dirla alla Macron, ‘un lebbroso’.

*


Udo Ulfkotte è morto. A 56 anni. Aveva rivelato che giornalisti sono “comprati” dalla Cia. I colleghi esultano.

Udo Ulfkotte è morto, improvvisamente, dicono di attacco cardiaco. Aveva 56 a anni.

Ulfkotte era il giornalista, che, dopo aver lavorato al Frankgfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, rivelò come lui ed altre “firme”  fossero al soldo dei servizi americani.. Il suo libro, “Giornalisti Comprati” (2014), descrive i metodi con cui la Cia imbecca, istruisce, paga (fino a 20 mila dollari) giornalisti tedeschi ma anche italiani perché scrivano articoli favorevoli alle politiche americane.

«Prima di tutto» ha raccontato «è necessario rendere autorevole il giornalista a libro paga, facendo riportare i suoi articoli, dandogli copertura internazionale e premiando i suoi libri. Molti premi letterari non sono che premi alla fedeltà propagandistica [..] In occasione della crisi libica del 2011, ha raccontato di come fu imbeccato dai servizi germanici perché annunciasse sul suo giornale, come fosse un fatto assodato, che Gheddafi era in possesso di armi chimiche ed era pronto ad usarle contro  il suo popolo inerme. […] Se invece si trasgredisce la linea filoatlantica le conseguenze sono altrettanto note, ovvero la perdita del lavoro, il triste isolamento professionale, fino alle minacce dirette e alle persecuzioni (lui stesso sostiene di aver subito sei perquisizioni nella sua abitazione con l’accusa di aver rivelato segreti di stato)”.

Insomma è stato il primo a rendere pubblico il fatto che i media scrivono “fake news” (notizie false) a pagamento. Oggi sono i media ad accusare i social di diffondere notizie false.

Dopo essere stato bollato come pazzo dal suo ex giornale, la FAZ, Udo Ulfkotte ha preso posizioni di veemente denuncia di Angela Merkel, della sua gestione dell’euro, e della sua politica di “accoglienza” di centinaia di migliaia di islamici.  “Die Asyl Industrie”, “Mekka Deutschland” sono i titoli dei suoi più recenti saggi.

Può essere stato ucciso?

Un suo corrispondente, l’informatico e autore di blog alternativo Hadmuth Danisch, riferisce di una mail di Udo;  stava cercando anche da lui se aveva  informazioni sulle violazioni della Costituzione da parte della Cancelliera, e si stupiva di non trovare nulla o quasi. La mail è del 10 gennaio:

“Domanda a tutto tondo: tranne il libro di testo dal professor Otto Depp Heuer ( “Lo stato della crisi dei rifugiati”) sono state altre pubblicazioni su Angela Merkel e il loro sistematiche violazioni di legge dal suo insediamento? ì Voglio dire: Atomausstieg (?) , salvataggio delle banche, apertura delle frontiere, violazioni di Lisbona, Maastricht, Dublino, Schengen, ecc … Chi conosce un buon lavoro-up professionali di illegalità ? Non intendo trattati di psicologi sulla malattia mentale del leader amato che si suppone tanto amato, non biografie di Angela Merkel – in realtà solo illegalità e letteratura profonda … Sì, lo so, c’è Di Fabio, ma altri?”.  Udo di Fabio qui citato è un giurista importrante, che è stato giudice della Corte costituzionale tedesca fino al 2011, e che ha scritto un saggio in cui descrive Angela Merkel “spaccatrice della Costituzione” (Verfassungsbrecherin)

Danisch ammette di aver risposto distrattamente (“Non è il mio campo e ho i guai miei…”. Il 12, ha ricevuto un’altra mail da Ulfkotte:Data: Giovedì, 12 Gennaio 2017 21:58:12 +0100Da: Udo Ulfkotte <udo@ulfkotte.de>A: ‘Hadmut Danisch’ <hadmut@danisch.de>Oggetto: Re: Richiesta di Udo Ulfkotte

“…centinaia di migliaia, forse milioni di persone discutono di possibili violazioni legali di Angela Merkel, e non c’è altro che un singolo opuscolo (edito dal Professor Otto Depenheuer) con brevi testi di alcuni docenti. In che paese viviamo? Non una tesi di dottorato, non saggi specialistici eccetera. Se vuoi conoscere  dal punto di vista giuridico quali leggi specificamente la Merkel abbialo infranto – perché non c’è dubbio che ne ha violate – non trovi NIENTE. Perché?”.

24 ore dopo era morto. Mmmm, commenta Danisch.

Effettivamente, quando si cercano informazioni sul web su temi seriamente critici di Angela, non viene fuori praticamente nulla. “Not Found”; “Error”, eccetera. Dicono che Ulfkotte avesse già avuto tre infarti.  Fatto sta che trovo questa notizia: “Ahahahah! Esultanza fra i gironalisti tedeschi per la morte del loro collega critico dell’immigrazione”. “Udo Ulfkotte è morto! Brindiamo!”

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo

Mondo. Inflazione. Punto della situazione.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-02.

2021-07-26__ Mondo Inflazione 001

«Around the world, a rebound in economic demand and strained supply lines have continued to add to inflationary pressures»

«In Europe, fresh data shows companies are passing along higher costs to consumers»

«The activities of US service providers have come to a boil as firms struggle to fill open positions and ensure sufficient inventories are in stock»

«Some central banks in emerging markets, such as Mexico, are raising interest rates in the face of high inflation»

«Housing prices are also rising in many advanced economies»

«House prices in the richest countries could rise by about 10% after a decade-long boom that is one of the strongest since 1900»

«At the same time, the IHS Markit US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index reached a new record»

«The number of container ships waiting to enter the biggest gateway for US trade with Asia rose to a 3 1/2-month high»

«Companies across Europe are raising prices to cope with rising cost pressures, supply-chain disruptions and delivery delays»

«The scorching heat is driving up electricity prices across Europe, adding to a long list of factors driving the cost of electricity this summer»

«extreme temperatures are driving the demand for cooling»

«While Japan’s key consumer prices rose for a second month in June, helped by higher energy costs, the pace of gains is still far from the levels fueling inflation fears elsewhere in the world»

«South Africa’s central bank softened its stance on raising borrowing costs this year»

«Mexico’s annual inflation unexpectedly accelerated in early July, putting pressure on policymakers to continue raising interest rates »

2021-07-26__ Mondo Inflazione 002

* * * * * * *


Charting the Global Economy: Inflation Maintains Firm Hold

Around the world, a rebound in economic demand and strained supply lines have continued to add to inflationary pressures.

In Europe, fresh data shows companies are passing along higher costs to consumers. The activities of US service providers have come to a boil as firms struggle to fill open positions and ensure sufficient inventories are in stock.

Some central banks in emerging markets, such as Mexico, are raising interest rates in the face of high inflation. Housing prices are also rising in many advanced economies.

Here are some of the charts that appeared on Businesshala this week on the latest developments in the global economy:

                         World.

House prices in the richest countries could rise by about 10% after a decade-long boom that is one of the strongest since 1900. British research firm Oxford Economics identified the Netherlands, Canada, Sweden, Germany and France as the property markets with the highest risk, based on its findings on long-term trends and price-to-rent ratios.

we

A measure of activity in service providers fell back to a five-month low in July, reflecting businesses’ continued struggle to fill positions and stock shelves. At the same time, the IHS Markit US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index reached a new record.

The number of container ships waiting to enter the biggest gateway for US trade with Asia rose to a 3 1/2-month high, raising hopes for a solid economy in the second half of the year. But there was a delay in trying to restore the inventory.

                         Europe.

Companies across Europe are raising prices to cope with rising cost pressures, supply-chain disruptions and delivery delays. A survey by IHS Markit shows that in July manufacturers’ costs rose at the fastest pace since at least 1997, while selling prices also jumped.

The scorching heat is driving up electricity prices across Europe, adding to a long list of factors driving the cost of electricity this summer. At a time when the world is emerging from a global pandemic, extreme temperatures are driving the demand for cooling.

                         Asia.

While Japan’s key consumer prices rose for a second month in June, helped by higher energy costs, the pace of gains is still far from the levels fueling inflation fears elsewhere in the world.

The devastating floods in the Chinese city of Zhengzhou are raising concerns about a possible rise in inflation. While there may be some upward pressure, any impact will be mild and unlikely to last beyond the near term, write Businesshala Economics’ Eric Zhu and Chang Shu.

                         Emerging markets.

South Africa’s central bank softened its stance on raising borrowing costs this year as the country grapples with deadly riots and a third wave of coronavirus infections.

Mexico’s annual inflation unexpectedly accelerated in early July, putting pressure on policymakers to continue raising interest rates after a surprise hike last month left the central bank’s board divided.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Stati Uniti

USA. 2020. Import ed Export. All commodities. Radiografia degli Stati Uniti.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-02.

Casa Bianca

USA. Imports and Exports. World. All Commodities. Value (US$) and Value Growth, YoY (%).

* * *


                         Exports.

The value of merchandise exports from USA totalled $ 1.43 trillion in 2020. Overall commodity exports from USA decreased by 13% compared to 2019. Merchandise exports decreased by $ 214 billion (the value of merchandise exports from USA amounted to $1.64 trillion in 2019).

                         USA’s exports 2020 by country.

Top export destinations of commodities from USA in 2020:

Canada with a share of 17.8% (255 billion US$)

Mexico with a share of 14.8% (212 billion US$)

China with a share of 8.71% (124 billion US$)

Japan with a share of 4.48% (64 billion US$)

United Kingdom with a share of 4.12% (58 billion US$)

Germany with a share of 3.99% (57 billion US$)

Korea with a share of 3.58% (51 billion US$)

Netherlands with a share of 3.18% (45 billion US$)

Brazil with a share of 2.45% (35 billion US$)

Other Asia, nes with a share of 2.13% (30 billion US$)

                         Exports structure from USA in 2020 represented by the following main commodity groups:

11.9% (170 billion US$): 84 – Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery and mechanical appliances; parts thereof

11.3% (161 billion US$): 85 – Electrical machinery and equipment and parts thereof; sound recorders and reproducers, television image and sound recorders and reproducers, and parts and accessories of such articles

10.8% (155 billion US$): 27 – Mineral fuels, mineral oils and products of their distillation; bituminous substances; mineral waxes

7.35% (105 billion US$): 87 – Vehicles other than railway or tramway rolling stock, and parts and accessories thereof

6.74% (96 billion US$): 90 – Optical, photographic, cinematographic, measuring, checking, precision, medical or surgical instruments and apparatus; parts and accessories thereof

5.65% (80 billion US$): 88 – Aircraft, spacecraft, and parts thereof

4.24% (60 billion US$): 39 – Plastics and articles thereof

4.11% (58 billion US$): 71 – Natural or cultured pearls, precious or semi-precious stones, precious metals, metals clad with precious metal and articles thereof; imitation jewelry; coin

3.76% (53 billion US$): 30 – Pharmaceutical products

3% (42 billion US$): 99 – Commodities not specified according to kind

                         What did USA export in 2020?

USA’s Top Exports in 2020:

4.24% ($60 billion): 2710 – Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, other than crude; preparations not elsewhere specified or included, containing by weight 70 % or more of petroleum oils or of oils obtained from bituminous minerals, these oils being the basic constituents of the preparations; waste oils.

3.51% ($50 billion): 2709 – Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude.

3.19% ($45 billion): 8703 – Motor cars and other motor vehicles principally designed for the transport of persons (other than those of heading 87.02), including station wagons and racing cars.

3.1% ($44 billion): 8542 – Electronic integrated circuits and microassemblies.

2.33% ($33 billion): 2711 – Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons.

2.31% ($33 billion): 8708 – Parts and accessories of the motor vehicles of headings 87.01 to 87.05.

1.95% ($28 billion): 9018 – Instruments and appliances used in medical, surgical, dental or veterinary sciences, including scintigraphic apparatus, other electro-medical apparatus and sight-testing instruments.

1.91% ($27 billion): 8525 – Transmission apparatus for radio-telephony, radio-telegraphy, radio-broadcasting or television, whether or not incorporating reception apparatus or sound recording or reproducing apparatus; television cameras; still image video cameras and other video camera recorders; digital cameras.

1.86% ($26 billion): 8471 – Automatic data processing machines and units thereof; magnetic or optical readers, machines for transcribing data onto data media in coded form and machines for processing such data, not elsewhere specified or included.

* * * * * * *


                         Imports.

The value of merchandise imports to USA totalled $ 2.4 trillion in 2020. Overall commodity imports to USA decreased by 6.31% compared to 2019. Merchandise imports decreased by $ 162 billion (the value of merchandise imports to USA was equal to $2.56 trillion in 2019).

                         USA’s imports 2020 by country.

Top trading partners (import sources) of USA in 2020:

China with a share of 19% (457 billion US$)

Mexico with a share of 13.6% (328 billion US$)

Canada with a share of 11.4% (276 billion US$)

Japan with a share of 5.09% (122 billion US$)

Germany with a share of 4.88% (117 billion US$)

Vietnam with a share of 3.45% (83 billion US$)

Korea with a share of 3.25% (78 billion US$)

Switzerland with a share of 3.13% (75 billion US$)

Ireland with a share of 2.73% (65 billion US$)

Other Asia, nes with a share of 2.59% (62 billion US$)

                         Imports structure to USA in 2020 represented by the following main commodity groups:

15.1% (364 billion US$): 84 – Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery and mechanical appliances; parts thereof

13.9% (336 billion US$): 85 – Electrical machinery and equipment and parts thereof; sound recorders and reproducers, television image and sound recorders and reproducers, and parts and accessories of such articles

10.5% (254 billion US$): 87 – Vehicles other than railway or tramway rolling stock, and parts and accessories thereof

5.79% (139 billion US$): 30 – Pharmaceutical products

5.4% (130 billion US$): 27 – Mineral fuels, mineral oils and products of their distillation; bituminous substances; mineral waxes

4.35% (104 billion US$): 71 – Natural or cultured pearls, precious or semi-precious stones, precious metals, metals clad with precious metal and articles thereof; imitation jewelry; coin

4.26% (102 billion US$): 99 – Commodities not specified according to kind

3.93% (94 billion US$): 90 – Optical, photographic, cinematographic, measuring, checking, precision, medical or surgical instruments and apparatus; parts and accessories thereof

2.72% (65 billion US$): 94 – Furniture; bedding, mattresses, mattress supports, cushions and similar stuffed furnishings; lamps and lighting fittings, not elsewhere specified or included; illuminated sign illuminated nameplates and the like; prefabricated buildings

2.61% (62 billion US$): 39 – Plastics and articles thereof

                         What did USA import in 2020?

USA’s Top Imports in 2020:

6.05% ($145 billion): 8703 – Motor cars and other motor vehicles principally designed for the transport of persons (other than those of heading 87.02), including station wagons and racing cars.

4.8% ($115 billion): 8471 – Automatic data processing machines and units thereof; magnetic or optical readers, machines for transcribing data onto data media in coded form and machines for processing such data, not elsewhere specified or included.

4.17% ($100 billion): 8525 – Transmission apparatus for radio-telephony, radio-telegraphy, radio-broadcasting or television, whether or not incorporating reception apparatus or sound recording or reproducing apparatus; television cameras; still image video cameras and other video camera recorders; digital cameras.

3.4% ($81 billion): 3004 – Medicaments (excluding goods of heading 30.02, 30.05 or 30.06) consisting of mixed or unmixed products for therapeutic or prophylactic uses, put up in measured doses (including those in the form of transdermal administration systems) or in forms or packings for retail sale.

3.39% ($81 billion): 2709 – Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude.

2.49% ($60 billion): 8708 – Parts and accessories of the motor vehicles of headings 87.01 to 87.05.

2.13% ($51 billion): 3002 – Human blood; animal blood prepared for therapeutic, prophylactic or diagnostic uses; antisera and other blood fractions and modified immunological products, whether or not obtained by means of biotechnological processes; vaccines, toxins, cultures of micro-organisms (excluding yeasts) and similar products.

1.5% ($36 billion): 2710 – Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, other than crude; preparations not elsewhere specified or included, containing by weight 70 % or more of petroleum oils or of oils obtained from bituminous minerals, these oils being the basic constituents of the preparations; waste oils.

1.44% ($34 billion): 7108 – Gold (including gold plated with platinum) unwrought or in semi-manufactured forms, or in powder form.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Unione Europea. 2021Q2. Pil EU +2.0%, Pil eurozona +1.9% sul 2021Q1.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-01.

2021-08-01__ Eurostat PIL 001

Eurostat ha rilasciato il Report preliminare  GDP up by 2.0% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU.

Correttamente, l’Istituto di Statistica ha titolato con il confronto sul trimestre precedente.

Infatti, il Pil 2020Q2 era stato inusitatamente basso, motivo per cui il rapporto 2021Q2/2020Q2 è abnormemente alto.

* * * * * * *


Eurostat. GDP up by 2.0% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU.

Preliminary flash estimate for the second quarter of 2021. GDP up by 2.0% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU. +13.7% and +13.2% respectively compared with the second quarter of 2020.

* * *

In the second quarter 2021, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 2.0% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU, compared with the previous quarter, according to a preliminary flash estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the first quarter of 2021, GDP had declined by 0.3% in the euro area and 0.1% in the EU.

These preliminary GDP flash estimates are based on data sources that are incomplete and subject to further revisions.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 13.7% in the euro area and by 13.2% in the EU in the second quarter of 2021, after -1.3% in both zones in the previous quarter.

Among the Member States for which data are available for the second quarter 2021, Portugal (+4.9%) recorded the highest increase compared to the previous quarter, followed by Austria (+4.3%) and Latvia (+3.7%), while Lithuania (+0.4%) and Czechia (+0.6%) recorded the lowest increase. The year on year growth rates were positive for all countries.

Source dataset: namq_10_gdp

The next estimates for the second quarter of 2021 will be released on 17 August 2021.

Pubblicato in: Cina

Cina. 2021H1. Pil +12.7% sul 2020H1.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-01.

2021-08-01 __ Cina 001

Il National Bureau of Statistics of China ha rilasciato  il Report Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Second Quarter and the First Half Year of 2021.

«                       Basic Concepts.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) refers to the final products at market prices produced by all resident units in a country during a certain period of time. GDP is the core indicator of the national accounts, and also an important indicator to measure the economic conditions and the level of development of a country.

In the practice of national accounting, gross domestic product is calculated using three approaches, namely production approach, income approach and expenditure approach, which reflect gross domestic product and its composition from different angles. The production approach refers to remove the value of intermediate goods and services from the value of goods and services created in the production process, and to get the value-added. The accounting formula as follows: value-added = total output – intermediate inputs. The GDP by production approach is the sum of value-added by production approach of various industries of national economy. The income approach refers to accounting the production activities from the point of generating income during the production process. Under this accounting method, the sum of the value-added obtained from four parts: workers compensation, net taxes on production, depreciation of fixed assets and operating surplus. The accounting formula as follows: value-added = workers compensation + net taxes on production + depreciation of fixed assets + operating surplus. The GDP by income approach equals to the sum of value-added by income approach of various industries of national economy. GDP by expenditure approach refers to the method of measuring GDP from the perspective of the final uses of production activities. The final uses include final consumption expenditure, gross capital formation and net export of goods and services.

National Bureau of Statistics released quarterly GDP used the production method which based on the result of basic accounting.

                         Production Coverage.

Production range of GDP accounting includes the following four parts: first, the production of goods and services provided to or ready to provide to other units by the producers; second, self-sufficient production of goods for own final consumption or capital formation by the producers; third, self-sufficient production of knowledge carrier products for own final consumption or capital formation by the producers, excluding similar activities undertaken by the household sector; housing services; fourth, housing services provided by owner-occupied housing, as well as self-sufficient production of household and personal services provided by paid family service personnel. Production range does not include unpaid household and personal services, nor no units controlled natural activities (such as wild, non-cultivated forest, berries or wild berries natural growth, the natural growth of the number of fish in the public sea), etc.

                         Related Laws and Regulations.

GDP accounting was strictly complying with the provisions of the Statistics Law of the People’s Republic of China. At present, China’s GDP was measured in accordance with the requirements of the China’s System of National Accounts (CSNA) (2016), which has adopted the basic accounting principles, contents and methods of the United Nation’s System of National Accounts (SNA) 2008.»

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime, Ong - Ngo, Stati Uniti

Nevada. Un giudice democratico autorizza una miniera di litio. Ira dei green.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-01.

Litio 013

«Miranda Du is the chief judge of the United States District Court for the District of Nevada. She was nominated to the court by President Barack Obama (D). Prior to becoming a judge, Du was a partner at the firm McDonald Carano Wilson LLP, in Reno, Nevada. Du became chief judge of the court on September 2, 2019.»

«A US federal judge has ruled that Lithium America Corp (LAC.TO) can carry out excavation work at its Thacker Pass lithium mine site in Nevada, rejecting a request from environmentalists that said excavations can cause damage to sage grouse and others the wildlife»

«The ruling marked a rare victory for a US critical mineral project»

«Chief Justice Miranda Du of the federal court in Reno, Nevada, said late Friday that excavations — necessary to determine whether the land holds historical imports for Native Americans — could go ahead while she was under the administration of former President Donald Trump»

«Do said, environmental groups could not prove what specific damage the excavation would cause, only hypothetical estimates»

* * * * * * *

I tempi stanno mutando ad incredibile velocità.

Gli Stati Uniti sono grandi importatori di litio, i cui prezzi sono aumentati sul mercato internazionale.

Materie Prime. Ancora aumenti dei prezzi. Litio +91.40%, per esempio. Inflazione.

Cina. Sta investendo massicciamente in Bolivia e Columbia. La guerra del Litio.

Alla fine, la ragionevolezza sembrerebbe prevalere.

Sembrerebbe essersi avviato al termine l’usbergo che le ngo esercitavano, forti dell’appoggio politico dei liberal democratici.

* * * * * * *


U.S. judge rules Lithium Americas may excavate Nevada mine site

A US federal judge has ruled that Lithium America Corp (LAC.TO) can carry out excavation work at its Thacker Pass lithium mine site in Nevada, rejecting a request from environmentalists that said excavations can cause damage to sage grouse and others the wildlife.

The ruling marked a rare victory for a US critical mineral project as environmental groups increasingly pressure courts and regulators to block mining projects even though they produce metal keys to building electric vehicles .

Chief Justice Miranda Du of the federal court in Reno, Nevada, said late Friday that excavations — necessary to determine whether the land holds historical imports for Native Americans — could go ahead while she was under the administration of former President Donald Trump. sets out the broader question. When it approved the project in January. Du said she would try to publish her decision by early 2022.

Vancouver, Canada-based Lithium America had agreed not to excavate before July 29, while Doo held discussions. It was not immediately clear whether the company now intends to begin digging on that date. Company representatives could not be reached for comment.

A project of about 18,000 acres in size would affect less than a quarter of an acre, a factor Dou said influenced his decision.

Additionally, Do said, environmental groups could not prove what specific damage the excavation would cause, only hypothetical estimates. “Environmentalists failed to meet their burden to show that they would cause irreparable harm,” Du said.

“We are disappointed by the court’s decision that allowed the company to excavate and remove cultural and historical artifacts,” said Kelly Fuller of the Western Watershed Project, one of the environmental groups that sued to block the project. Is.”

Fuller said the group looks forward to hearings with Doo in the future to argue that the entire project should be cancelled.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

USA. 2021Q2. Pil +6.5%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-07-31.

2021-07-30__ Usa PCE 001

Si notino due elementi.

– Il pil è aumentato di una percentuale quasi eguale a quella del PCE, ossia il 6.4%. L’aumento del Pil è virtualmente eguale alla inflazione stimata con il PCE,

– Il valore del Pil è artatamente gonfiato, contabilizzando come prodotti da lavoro i sussidi assistenziali.

* * *

«Disposable personal income decreased $1.42 trillion, or 26.1 percent»

«Real disposable personal income decreased 30.6 percent»

«personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 10.9 percent in the second quarter, compared with 20.8 percent in the first quarter»

Questi macro dati sembrerebbero essere ben poco entusiasmanti.

* * * * * * *


Bureau of Economic Analysis. Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2021 (Advance Estimate) and Annual Update

                         Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 6.5 percent in the second quarter of 2021 (table 1), according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 6.3 percent (revised).

The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see “Source Data for the Advance Estimate” on page 3). The “second” estimate for the second quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on August 26, 2021.

The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected increases in personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by decreases in private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased (table 2).

The increase in PCE reflected increases in services (led by food services and accommodations) and goods (led by “other” nondurable goods, notably pharmaceutical products). The increase in nonresidential fixed investment reflected increases in equipment (led by transportation equipment) and intellectual property products (led by research and development). The increase in exports reflected an increase in goods (led by nonautomotive capital goods) and services (led by travel). The decrease in private inventory investment was led by a decrease in retail trade inventories. The decrease in federal government spending primarily reflected a decrease in nondefense spending on intermediate goods and services In the second quarter, nondefense services decreased as the processing and administration of Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loan applications by banks on behalf of the federal government declined.

Current‑dollar GDP increased 13.0 percent at an annual rate, or $684.4 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $22.72 trillion. In the first quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 10.9 percent, or $560.6 billion (revised, tables 1 and 3). More information on the source data that underlie the estimates is available in the Key Source Data and      Assumptions file on BEA’s website.

                         The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 5.7 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 3.9 percent (revised) in the first quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 6.4 percent, compared with an increase of 3.8 percent (revised). Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 6.1 percent, compared with an increase of 2.7 percent (revised).

                         Personal Income

                         Current-dollar personal income decreased $1.32 trillion in the second quarter, or 22.0 percent, in contrast to an increase of $2.33 trillion (revised), or 56.8 percent, in the first quarter. The decrease  primarily reflected a decrease in government social benefits related to pandemic relief programs, notably the decrease in direct economic impact payments to households established by the Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act and the American Rescue Plan Act (table 8). Additional information on factors impacting personal income can be found in Effects of Selected Federal Pandemic Response Programs on Personal Income.

                         Disposable personal income decreased $1.42 trillion, or 26.1 percent, in the second quarter, in contrast to an increase of $2.27 trillion, or 63.7 percent (revised), in the first quarter. Real disposable personal income decreased 30.6 percent, in contrast to an increase of 57.6 percent.

                         Personal outlays increased $680.8 billion, after increasing $538.8 billion. The increase in outlays was led by an increase in PCE for services.

                         Personal saving was $1.97 trillion in the second quarter, compared with $4.07 trillion (revised) in the first quarter.  The personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 10.9 percent in the second quarter, compared with 20.8 percent in the first quarter.

                         Source Data for the Advance Estimate

Information on the key source data and assumptions used in the advance estimate is provided in a Technical Note that is posted with the news release on BEA’s website. A detailed Key Source Data and Assumptions file is also posted for each release. For information on updates to GDP, see the “Additional Information” section that follows.

                         Annual Update of the National Economic Accounts

Today’s release also reflects the Annual Update of the National Income and Product Accounts; the updated Industry Economic Accounts will be released on September 30, 2021, along with the third estimate of GDP for the second quarter of 2021. The timespan of the update is the first quarter of 1999 through the first quarter of 2021 and resulted in revisions to GDP, GDI, and their major components. The reference year remains 2012. More information on the 2021 Annual Update is included in the May Survey of Current Business article, GDP and the Economy.
For the period of economic expansion from the second quarter of 2009 through the fourth quarter of 2019, real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent, the same as previously published. For the period of economic contraction from the fourth quarter of 2019 through the second quarter of 2020, real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 19.2 percent, also the same as previously published. For the period of economic expansion from the second quarter of 2020 through the first quarter of 2021, real GDP increased at an annual rate of 14.1 percent, an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point from the previously published estimate.

With today’s release, most NIPA tables are available through BEA’s Interactive Data application on the BEA website (www.bea.gov). See Information on Updates to the National Economic Accounts for the complete table release schedule and a summary of results through 2020, which includes a discussion of methodology changes. A table showing the major current‑dollar revisions and their sources for each component of GDP, national income, and personal income is also provided. The August 2021 Survey of Current Business will contain an article describing the update in more detail.

Updates for the First Quarter of 2021

For the first quarter of 2021, real GDP is estimated to have increased 6.3 percent (table 1), 0.1 percentage point less than previously published. The revision primarily reflected downward revisions to federal government spending, state and local government spending, and exports that were partly offset by an upward revision to nonresidential fixed investment.

Real GDI is now estimated to have increased 6.3 percent in the first quarter (table 1); in the previously published estimates, first-quarter GDI was estimated to have increased 7.6 percent. The leading contributor to the downward revision was compensation, based primarily on new first-quarter wage and salary estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.

The price index for gross domestic purchases is now estimated to have increased 3.9 percent in the first quarter, 0.1 percentage point lower than previously published (table 4). The PCE price index increased 3.8 percent, 0.1 percentage point higher than previously published. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.7 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than previously published.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Germania. Giugno21. Prezzi alla Importazione +12.9% anno su anno. – Merkeldämmerung.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-07-31.

2021-07-28__ Germania - Indice dei prezzi all'Importazione (Annuale) 001

In sintesi.

– Import prices +12.9% on the same month a year earlier

– In June 2021 energy imports were 88.5% more expensive than in June 2020

– natural gas with a plus of 150.0%

– crude oil with a plus of 81.8%

– The index of export prices increased by 5.0% in June 2021 compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year

* * * * * * *

Queste cifre non ammettono repliche.

Un aumento del +12.9% dei costi dei beni importati si ripercuote immediatamente sui prezzi al consumo.

Ma l’aumento del 150% del gas naturale e dell’81.8% del greggio sono causa efficiente dell’aumento dei costi di produzione e, quindi, della inflazione.

Questa è la eredità che la Merkel lascia alla Germania.

*


Destatis. Import prices in June 2021: +12.9% on June 2020

Pressrelease #360 from 28 July 2021

Import prices, June 2021

+1.6% on the previous month

+12.9% on the same month a year earlier

Export prices, June 2021

+0.8% on the previous month

+5.0% on the same month a year earlier

* * *


WIESBADEN – As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the index of import prices increased by 12.9% in June 2021 compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. This has been the highest year-on-year-change since October 1981 (+13.6%). In May 2021 and in April 2021 the annual rates of change were +11.8% and +10.3%, respectively. From May 2021 to June 2021 the index rose by 1.6%.

                         High price increase mainly caused by the energy price development

In June 2021 energy imports were 88.5% more expensive than in June 2020. This high rate of annual change derives from the very low prices in June 2020. The largest influence on the year-on-year rate of energy price increase in June 2021 had natural gas with a plus of 150.0% and crude oil with a plus of 81.8%.

The index of import prices, excluding crude oil and mineral oil products, increased by 9.8% in June 2021 compared with June 2020 and in comparison with May 2021 it rose by 1.3%.

The index of export prices increased by 5.0% in June 2021 compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. This has been the highest year-on-year-change since April 1982 (+5.6%). In May 2021 and in April 2021 the annual rates of change were +4.2% and +3.3%, respectively. From May 2021 to June 2021 the index rose by 0.8%.

Pubblicato in: Brasile

Brasile. Luglio21. Indice dei prezzi al consumo, CPI, +8.59% anno su anno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-07-31.

2021-07-25__ Brasile 001

Il Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) ha rilasciato il Report sul CPI brasiliano.

2021-07-25__ Brasile 002

«The IPCA – Extended National Consumer Price Index – measures the change in the cost of living of families with an average income of 1 to 40 minimum wages. ….

Differences between IPCA-15 and IPCA lie in geographic coverage and data collection period, which, for the former, starts on the 16th of the preceding month. IPCA 15 is a type of IPCA preview. ….

IPCA – Complete survey

Sidra – Tables of Results

IBGE Explains – Inflation

IPCA Calculator

*

IPCA-15 – Complete survey

Sidra – Tables of Results

IBGE Explains – Inflation»

* * * * * * *


Brazil’s Consumer Prixe Index rises 0.72% in July, highest for the month in 17 years

In 12 months, the IPCA-15 index has advanced 8.59%, against an accumulated high of 8.13% in June and more than double of the government’s target for this year of 3.75%.

Brazil’s official inflation forecast slowed down in July but still had the highest increase for the month since 2004, with electricity and gasoline keeping up the pressure on prices.

According to data released Friday by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the Broad National Consumer Price Index-15 (IPCA-15) rose 0.72% in July, after a high of 0.83% in the previous month.

In 12 months, the IPCA-15 index has advanced 8.59%, against an accumulated high of 8.13% in June and more than double of the government’s . . .