Usa. Richieste sussidi iniziali 362,000, continui 2,802,000. Stagflazione.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-30.

L’indice Initial Jobless Claims misura il numero di persone che per la prima volta nella settimana in rassegna hanno richiesto l’indennizzo di disoccupazione. Il dato viene raccolto dal Department of Labor e pubblicato in un report settimanale.
Il numero di richieste di sussidi di disoccupazione misura lo stato di salute del mercato del lavoro, in quanto una serie di aumenti indica che maggiore è la disponibilità di persone senza impiego.

* * * * * * *

Comme d’habitude, le previsioni fatte dagli economisti gallonati si sono rivelate essere fallaci, inventate di sana pianta.

Fatto si è che gli Stati Uniti siano in stagflazione, ossia alta inflazione e sistema produttivo stagnante.

Il mondo aspetta di vedere cosa intenderà fare la Harris-Biden Administration, ma per il momento la White House è stranamente silente.

* * * * * * *

---

Weekly jobless claims rise more than expected to 362,000

– Weekly jobless claims totaled 362,000 last week, an increase of 27,000 from the previous week and above the 335,000 estimate.

– Continuing claims rose to 2.84 million.

– The economy grew at an annualized pace of 6.7% in the third quarter, slightly above estimates.

*

Initial jobless claims climbed again last week, rising to 362,000, the Labor Department said Thursday, as hiring appeared to remain sluggish while the U.S. battles the delta variant.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting 335,000 new filings, the same number as the upwardly revised total from the previous week. A surge in claims from California helped account for much of the gains.

The seasonally adjusted total was the highest since the 377,000 for the week ended Aug. 7 and indicated that hiring may be slowing at a time when concerns are growing about the pace of the economic recovery and the impact the pandemic may have heading into autumn.

Markets reacted little to the news, with stock futures pointing higher and government bond yields around flat.

The four-week moving average for weekly claims, which smooths volatility in the numbers, edged lower to 335,750.

Continuing claims, which run a week behind the headline weekly number, rose to 2.84 million, an increase of 131,000. The four-week moving average for continuing claims fell to 2.8 million, a drop of 15,750 and the lowest since March 14, 2020, the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic.

With enhanced unemployment benefits coming to a close, the total of those enrolled under all programs fell to 11.25 million, a drop of 856,440. A year ago, 26.6 million were receiving benefits under programs the government had developed to combat massive pandemic-related layoffs.

The rise this week likely reflects distortions left over from Hurricane Ida, according to Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

“The Ida effect should now fade from the numbers, but the seasonals are even more severe for the next couple weeks, so claims likely won’t return to their previous lows until mid-October,” Shepherdson wrote. “After that, the downward trend should resume as economic activity revs back up post-Delta.”

California saw 24,221 new claims, according to unadjusted numbers. Earlier this month, the state implemented a program in which those who had been cut off from enhanced aid could file for an additional week of benefits.

Virginia also saw a big rise, with 12,879 new filings. Hurricane-ravaged Louisiana saw a decline of 7,308.

A separate report Thursday showed that gross domestic product for the second quarter rose 6.7%, according to the third and final reading from the Commerce Department. That was slightly above the previous estimate of 6.6%, which also was the Dow Jones forecast for the final reading.

Biden. Il Senato nega l’autorizzazione a sospendere i limiti al debito.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-30.

Il Senato GOP blocca la legge che finanzierebbe il governo sospendendo il limite al tetto massimo del debito, senza un accordo l’Amministrazione Harris-Biden va in default.

I legislatori devono approvare una legge sugli stanziamenti entro giovedì per evitare uno shutdown, e devono sospendere o aumentare il limite del debito nelle prossime settimane per evitare un default.

* * * * * * *

«Senate GOP blocks bill that would fund government and suspend debt limit, as time runs short to avoid shutdown and default»

«Senate Republicans blocked a House-passed bill that would prevent a government shutdown and a potential default on U.S. debt»

«Democrats may be forced to suspend the debt limit on their own, potentially as part of their up to $3.5 trillion budget reconciliation bill»

«Senate Republicans on Monday blocked a bill that would fund the government and suspend the U.S. debt ceiling, leaving Democrats scrambling to avoid a possible economic calamity»

«The House-passed legislation would have funded the government into December and suspended the U.S. debt ceiling into December of next year, after the midterm congressional elections»

«After every House Republican opposed the measure, the Senate GOP also refused to help Democrats suspend the debt limit»

«Democrats now have to pull off a daunting series of maneuvers to avoid a sequence of events that could ravage the economy and cost millions of Americans their jobs»

«Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has told lawmakers that the U.S. will run out of ways to pay its bills sometime in October unless Congress raises the debt ceiling»

«We will not provide Republican votes for raising the debt limit»

* * * * * * *

Al solito, il problema sarebbe facile da esporsi.

Nei primi tre mesi di presidenza, Joe Biden ha emesso un grande numero di ordini esecutivi, con i quali ha cercato di smantellare tutto quanto era stato fatto dalla pregressa Amministrazione, reintroducendo molteplici permessi ‘permissivi’.

Colpiva la sua arrogante supponenza.

Tutto questo ha stimolato profondamente la rivolta dei repubblicani. Negli stati governati dai repubblicani hanno approvato leggi che regolarizzano le procedure di voto e limitano le possibilità di accesso al divorzio: due temi sensibili per i liberal.

Poi, in Senato, hanno praticato ostruzionismo, reclamando ogni qualvolta possibile il raggiungimento dei sessanta voti validi. Di fatto, tutte le leggi di Nancy Pelosi sono state sistematicamente bocciate.

La posta in gioco sono le elezioni di midterm.

* * * * * * *

---

Senate GOP blocks bill that would fund government and suspend debt limit, as time runs short to avoid shutdown and default.

– Senate Republicans blocked a House-passed bill that would prevent a government shutdown and a potential default on U.S. debt.

– Lawmakers have to pass an appropriations bill by Thursday to avoid a shutdown, and need to suspend or increase the debt limit sometime in the coming weeks to prevent a default.

– Democrats may be forced to suspend the debt limit on their own, potentially as part of their up to $3.5 trillion budget reconciliation bill.

*

Congress is running out of time to prevent a shutdown and a default.

Senate Republicans on Monday blocked a bill that would fund the government and suspend the U.S. debt ceiling, leaving Democrats scrambling to avoid a possible economic calamity.

The House-passed legislation would have funded the government into December and suspended the U.S. debt ceiling into December of next year, after the midterm congressional elections.

Lawmakers need to approve government funding before Friday to avoid a shutdown. The U.S. risks default if Congress doesn’t raise the debt ceiling by a point that is likely to come in October, according to the Treasury Department.

After every House Republican opposed the measure, the Senate GOP also refused to help Democrats suspend the debt limit. In a 48-50 vote, all Republican senators opposed advancing the legislation. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., voted no as a procedural move so he can bring up the bill again later.

Democrats now have to pull off a daunting series of maneuvers to avoid a sequence of events that could ravage the economy and cost millions of Americans their jobs. The Republican opposition may force them to pass a short-term funding bill with GOP support, then approve a debt limit suspension on their own — potentially as part of their up to $3.5 trillion budget reconciliation plan.

“The Republican Party has solidified itself as the party of default, and it will be the American people who pay the price,” Schumer said after the vote.

He added that “we’ll be taking further action” this week to try to prevent a shutdown and default. He did not specify how Democrats would proceed.

Government funding will lapse if lawmakers do not pass an appropriations bill before midnight Thursday.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has told lawmakers that the U.S. will run out of ways to pay its bills sometime in October unless Congress raises the debt ceiling.

Government funding and the debt limit are separate issues. Raising or suspending the ceiling does not authorize new government spending, but allows the U.S. to borrow to cover existing obligations.

Democrats have criticized Republicans for risking economic ruin while opposing a debt ceiling suspension, which they have supported in the past. The party has also noted that the GOP voted for trillions of dollars in emergency coronavirus aid since the last time Congress suspended the limit.

Republicans have contended their counterparts should suspend the debt ceiling on their own as they move to pass an up to $3.5 trillion investment in the social safety net and climate policy without the GOP.

Speaking before the vote Monday, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., reiterated that Republicans would vote for a short-term funding bill that does not raise the debt ceiling.

“We will not provide Republican votes for raising the debt limit,” he said.

He tried before the failed vote to bring up an appropriations plan that does not address the borrowing limit. Sen. Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., objected to his move.

Italia. Stipendio medio netto è di 21,462.62 euro l’anno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-30.

«Se esaminiamo il caso tipico di un dipendente single senza figli questo arriva a 21.462,62 euro dopo avere sottratto le tasse e i contributi»

«Si tratta di 1.533 euro al mese con 14 mensilità»

«La media europea nello stesso anno è invece di 24.004,90 euro»

«I giovani guadagnano decisamente meno dei 50enni, 11.456 euro lordi se maschi e 8.063 se femmine tra i 20 e i 24 anni.»

«Per esempio uno pubblico genera salari e redditi decisamente maggiori»

«→→ Secondo l’Inps quello dei dipendenti statali arriva a 33.500 lordi annui, quello dei dipendenti privati a 23 mila, molto meno ←←»

Si perpetua l’enorme ingiustizia dei trattamenti dei dipendenti delle pubbliche amministrazioni.

Costoro, che godono di un posto inamovibile e di stipendi molto maggiori a quelli delle produzione, nulla hanno pagato alla crisi, che è gravata unicamente sulle spalle degli altri. Questa è una situazione parassitaria.

Da molti punti di vista, l’inflazione è molto più equa, perché la subiscono anche i dipendenti delle pubbliche amministrazioni.

*

---

Lo stipendio medio in Italia è di 21.462,62 euro l’anno.

Qual è lo stipendio medio in Italia? Per prima cosa si deve dire che gli italiani che lavorano guadagnano meno di gran parte degli altri cittadini europei. Questo è il primo dato che spicca dall’analisi dei numeri che Eurostat fornisce sullo stipendio medio netto in Italia e negli altri Paesi. Se esaminiamo il caso tipico di un dipendente single senza figli questo arriva a 21.462,62 euro dopo avere sottratto le tasse e i contributi. Si tratta di 1.533 euro al mese con 14 mensilità.

                         Lo stipendio medio in Italia nel 2020

I dati che abbiamo citato sono aggiornati al 2020, l’anno della pandemia. Si nota, quindi, una riduzione di circa 90 euro rispetto al 2019, evidentemente a causa della crisi economica legata al Covid.                . Il gap si è allargato nel tempo. Basti pensare che nel 2013, il primo anno di cui si hanno i dati medi europei, la differenza era di 550 euro, molto inferiore a quella attuale di 2.542.

                         Lo stipendio medio in Europa

I più ricchi sono i cittadini di tre Paesi che della Ue tra l’altro neanche fanno parte, ovvero gli svizzeri, con 67.658,78 euro all’anno, ovvero più del triplo che in Italia, gli islandesi e i norvegesi, che guadagnano più di 40 mila euro netti, come del resto anche i lussemburghesi e gli americani. Naturalmente vi è da considerare come negli Usa e in Svizzera vi siano spesso spese aggiuntive, come quelle per la sanità privata, ma il divario rimane comunque imponente. Lo stipendio medio netto dei tedeschi era invece di 31.830,70 all’anno nel 2020, e a differenza che nel nostro Paese non era diminuito rispetto al 2019. Ma se il confronto è invece con il 2000 emerge come sia cresciuto di ben 12.300 euro, mentre in Italia nello stesso lasso di tempo è aumentato solo di 6.170. 

                         Lo stipendio medio italiano a confronto con gli altri Paesi

In Francia invece il salario medio netto era lo stesso anno di 27.767,99 euro, mentre in Spagna era di poco inferiore a quello italiano, di 21.241,30. I più poveri, almeno tra i popoli dell’Unione Europea, sono i bulgari, che arrivavano nel 2020 appena a 6.385,89 euro. Sotto i 10 mila erano anche rumeni, lettoni, ungheresi, croati. In questo caso però sono stati più ampi i progressi degli ultimi 10 anni. Basti pensare che nel 2008 in Bulgaria il salario netto era solo di 2.605,88 euro, vuol dire che in 12 anni vi è stato più che un raddoppio. 

Al contrario di quanto è avvenuto in Grecia, che costituisce in questo ambito il caso più negativo. Da un livello di 18.567,36 nel 2010, di poco inferiore a quello italiano ed europeo, lo stipendio medio dei lavoratori ellenici è diminuito a 15.762,85 nel 2020. Qui non c’è stata semplicemente una crescita lenta, come in Italia, o in Portogallo e in Spagna, a causa della crisi dell’euro e poi di quella pandemica, ma proprio un taglio dei salari in seguito alle manovre di austerità che sono state messe in atto dal governo del Paese su “suggerimento” della troika.

                         Lo stipendio medio in Italia per categoria

Naturalmente questi numeri, essendo delle medie, nascondono disuguaglianze che perlomeno nel caso dell’Italia possono essere anche piuttosto ampie. Tra le più rilevanti quelle tra le fasce di età e tra uomini e donne. È l’Inps a informarci di come cambia lo stipendio medio degli italiani in base a questi fattori.

Il dato che viene fornito nello specifico è quello del reddito lordo del 2019, quindi prima di avere detratto tasse e contributi, ed emergono come i più ricchi i lavoratori uomini tra i 55 e i 59 anni. In questo caso si raggiungono i 31.923 euro. Nel conto sono inclusi in tal caso anche gli autonomi, che mediamente dichiarano meno dei dipendenti. I redditi scendono a poco più di 30 mila tra i 60 e i 64 anni e a 22.514 nel caso degli over 65, sempre uomini, tra cui solitamente rimangono in attività soprattutto i lavoratori indipendenti.

                         Gli stipendi medi in Italia per età

I giovani guadagnano decisamente meno dei 50enni, 11.456 euro lordi se maschi e 8.063 se femmine tra i 20 e i 24 anni. Tra questi vi sono certamente molti stage, tirocini, e lavori temporanei di poche ore o stagionali. Si sale rispettivamente a 16.968 e 13.414 nel caso dei 25-29enni, e a 21.159 e 15.981 in quello dei 30-34enni. Si nota come cresce il gap tra i generi, che diventa in questo caso di più di 5mila euro e aumenta fino a 7.400 nella fascia più “ricca”, quella dei 55-59enni. Oltre alla presenza di vere e proprie discriminazioni conta in questo differenziale anche la maggiore percentuale di lavoratori che sono occupati part time tra le donne, oltre che alla più decisa presenza femminile in alcuni settori che hanno strutturalmente salari inferiori.

                         Il calcolo della stipendio netto categoria per categoria

Ma è interessante anche vedere quali sono le categorie nelle quali i salari sono cresciuti di più negli anni e in quali hanno resistito alla bufera della pandemia di Covid nell’ultimo anno e mezzo. Prendendo come punto di riferimento il 2015 è evidente come, considerando i comparti in cui si contano molti dipendenti (in questo caso non sono contati gli autonomi), siano stati i lavoratori del settore finanziario e assicurativo quelli che hanno potuto incrementare di più le entrate nel periodo tra quell’anno e il primo trimestre 2021, il più recente per cui abbiamo dei numeri. L’aumento è stato del 7,5%. Più rilevante sarebbe quello del settore dell’estrazione di cave e minerali, in cui l’incremento è stato del 12,1%, e ancora di quello delle attività artistiche, sportive, di intrattenimento, ma si tratta di nicchie di mercato in cui sono inclusi pochi addetti in realtà.

In discreto aumento in questi 5 anni o poco più anche gli stipendi medi dei lavoratori della sanità e dell’istruzione. Gran parte di essi d’altronde sono nel settore pubblico, che ha seguito dinamiche diverse da quelle di mercato. Meno positive le dinamiche salariali in altri ambiti, come quello della fornitura di energia, in cui vi è stato dal 2015 un incremento solo dello 0,6%, mentre in quello riguardante trasporto e magazzinaggio la crescita è stata dell’1,7%, e nelle attività immobiliari del 2%.

                         La retribuzione media nel settore pubblico in Italia

Tra gli altri fattori che fanno la differenza nella determinazione dello stipendio medio, oltre al comparto, all’età e al genere vi è naturalmente anche il tipo di contratto. Per esempio uno pubblico genera salari e redditi decisamente maggiori. Secondo l’Inps quello dei dipendenti statali arriva a 33.500 lordi annui, quello dei dipendenti privati a 23 mila, molto meno. In mezzo vi sono i parasubordinati, come i co.co.co, che arrivano a 28.700, ma sono relativamente pochi, meno di un milione, contro i quasi 3,5 milioni di lavoratori del settore pubblico e i più di 15 milioni di quello privato. In fondo, con poco più di 7 mila euro all’anno, vi sono gli operai agricoli e i lavoratori domestici, tra cui del resto sia la stagionalità che il lavoro nero hanno il loro peso.

                         Il salario medio in Italia senza salario minimo universale

Un dettagli importantissimo per comprendere fino in fondo i dati riguarda il salario minimo orario, cioè la retribuzione sotto la quale la retribuzione è illegale. Esiste, è vero, in tutti gli Stati europei, ma con una distinzione fondamentale. In molti, anzi, moltissimi, il salario minimo è universale, cioè fissato per legge per tutti i lavoratori. In altri è settoriale, cioè vale solo per coloro che sono “coperti” da un contratto di lavoro. L’Italia fa parte di questo secondo gruppo di Paesi perché non c’è mai stata una legge che imponesse il salario minimo universale. Questo potrebbe essere uno dei motivi per i quali i salari medi italiani sono più bassi di quelli degli altri Paesi: da noi una larga fetta di lavoratori non è coperta da un contratto di lavoro e, quindi, può essere pagata meno.

Iran e Venezuela. Accordo petrolifero totalmente incuranti delle sanzioni Usa.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-29.

Quanto valga il peso politico ed economico di Joe Biden è stato ben dimostrato dalla cooptazione dell’Iran nello Sco.

Dushanbe. Russia e Cina integrano l’Iran nello SCO. Altra débâcle irredimibile di Joe Biden.

Ma che a prendere a schiaffi Joe Biden siano persino il Venezuela e l’Iran è davvero cosa grossa.

* * * * * * *

«Under U.S. sanctions, Iran and Venezuela strike oil export deal»

«Venezuela has agreed to a key contract to swap its heavy oil for Iranian condensate that it can use to improve the quality of its tar-like crude, with the first cargoes due this week»

«the deal between state-run firms Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) and National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) deepens the cooperation between two of Washington’s foes»

«The deal could be a breach of U.S. sanctions on both nations»

«U.S. sanctions programs not only forbid Americans from doing business with the oil sectors of Iran and Venezuela, but also threaten to impose “secondary sanctions” against any non-U.S. person or entity that carries out transactions with either countries’ oil companies»

«Secondary sanctions can carry a range of penalties against those targeted, including cutting off access to the U.S. financial system, fines or the freezing of U.S. assets»

«U.S. officials are concerned, the source said, that Iranian diluent shipments could help provide President Nicolas Maduro with more of a financial lifeline»

«→→ We will continue to enforce both our Iran and Venezuela-related sanctions ←←»

«U.S. government officials have insisted they do not plan to ease sanctions on Venezuela unless Maduro takes definitive steps toward free and fair elections»

* * * * * * *

«→→ We will continue to enforce both our Iran and Venezuela-related sanctions ←←»

Bene. Benissimo.

Gli Stati Uniti possono decretare le più terribili delle sanzioni, che tanto sia il Venezuela sia l’Iran non se ne curano minimamente.

Questo è il livello cui Joe Biden ha fatto precipitare l’America: quello dei quaraquaquà.

* * * * * * *

---

Exclusive: Under U.S. sanctions, Iran and Venezuela strike oil export deal.

Caracas/Houston/Washington, Sept 25 (Reuters) – Venezuela has agreed to a key contract to swap its heavy oil for Iranian condensate that it can use to improve the quality of its tar-like crude, with the first cargoes due this week, five people close to the deal said.

As the South American country seeks to boost its flagging oil exports in the face of U.S. sanctions, according to the sources, the deal between state-run firms Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) and National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) deepens the cooperation between two of Washington’s foes.

One of the people said the swap agreement is planned to last for six months in its first phase, but could be extended. Reuters could not immediately determine other details of the mwpact.

The oil ministries of Venezuela and Iran, and state-run PDVSA and NIOC did not reply to requests for comment.

The deal could be a breach of U.S. sanctions on both nations, according to a Treasury Department email to Reuters which cited U.S. government orders that establish the punitive measures.

U.S. sanctions programs not only forbid Americans from doing business with the oil sectors of Iran and Venezuela, but also threaten to impose “secondary sanctions” against any non-U.S. person or entity that carries out transactions with either countries’ oil companies.

Secondary sanctions can carry a range of penalties against those targeted, including cutting off access to the U.S. financial system, fines or the freezing of U.S. assets.

Any “transactions with NIOC by non-U.S. persons are generally subject to secondary sanctions,” the Treasury Department said in response to a question about the deal. It also said it “retains authority to impose sanctions on any person that is determined to operate in the oil sector of the Venezuelan economy,” but did not specifically address whether the current deal is a sanctions breach.

U.S. sanctions are often applied at the discretion of the administration in power. Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s government seized Iranian fuel cargoes at sea bound for Venezuela for alleged sanction busting last year, but his successor Joe Biden has made no similar moves.

In Washington, a source familiar with the matter said the swap arrangement between Venezuela and Iran has been on the radar screens of U.S. government officials as a likely sanctions violation in recent months and they want to see how far it will go in practical terms.

U.S. officials are concerned, the source said, that Iranian diluent shipments could help provide President Nicolas Maduro with more of a financial lifeline as he negotiates with the Venezuelan opposition towards elections.

Sanctions on both nations have crimped their oil sales in recent years, spurring NIOC to support Venezuela – including through shipping services and fuel swaps – in allocating exports to Asia.  

In a meeting at the U.N. General Assembly in New York on Wednesday, the foreign ministers of Venezuela and Iran publicly stated their commitment to stronger bilateral trade, despite U.S. attempts to block it.

Trump’s tightening of sanctions contributed last year to a 38% fall in Venezuela’s oil exports – the backbone of its economy – to their lowest level in 77 years and curtailed sources of fuel imports, worsening gasoline shortages in the nation of some 30 million people.

A U.S. Treasury spokesperson said the department was “concerned” about reports of oil deals between Venezuela and Iran, but had not verified details.

“We will continue to enforce both our Iran and Venezuela-related sanctions,” the spokesperson said. Treasury “has demonstrated its willingness” to blacklist entities who support Iranian attempts to evade U.S. sanctions and who “further enable their destabilizing behavior around the world,” the official added.

The swap contract would provide PDVSA with a steady supply of condensate, which it needs to dilute output of extra heavy oil from the Orinoco Belt, its largest producing region, the people said. The bituminous crude requires mixing before it can be transported and exported.

In return, Iran will receive shipments of Venezuelan heavy oil that it can market in Asia, said the people, who declined to be identified as they were not authorized to speak publicly.

                         CARGOES THIS WEEK

PDVSA has boosted oil swaps to minimize cash payments since the U.S. Treasury Department in 2019 blocked the company from using U.S. dollars. Washington has also sanctioned foreign companies for receiving or shipping Venezuelan oil.

Since last year, PDVSA has imported two cargoes of Iranian condensate in one-off swap deals to meet specific needs for diluents, and it has also exchanged Venezuelan jet fuel for Iranian gasoline.

The new contract would help PDVSA secure a source of diluents, stabilizing exports of the Orinoco’s crude blends, while allowing its own lighter oil to be refined in Venezuela to produce badly needed motor fuel, three of the people said.

The first 1.9 million barrel cargo of Venezuela’s Merey heavy crude under the new swap set sail earlier this week from PDVSA’s Jose port on the very large crude carrier (VLCC) Felicity, owned and operated by National Iranian Tanker Co (NITC), according to the three people and monitoring service TankerTrackers.com.

NITC, a unit of NIOC, did not reply to a request for comment.

The vessel was not included in PDVSA’s monthly port schedules for September, which lists planned imports and exports. However, TankerTrackers.com identified it while at Jose this month.

The Venezuelan crude shipment is a partial payment for a cargo of 2 million barrels of Iranian condensate that arrived in Venezuela on Thursday, according to the three sources and one of PDVSA’s port schedules.

                         LITTLE ENFORCEMENT

Last year, the previous Trump administration seized over 1 million barrels of Iranian fuel bound for Venezuela and blacklisted five tanker captains, as part of a “maximum pressure” strategy, but the United States has not interdicted recent Iranian supplies to Venezuela.

The U.S. State Department declined to comment on the deal. A Treasury spokesperson did not respond to a Reuters question on how concerned the government might be that Iran-Venezuela deals would allow PDVSA to step up exports.

U.S. government officials have insisted they do not plan to ease sanctions on Venezuela unless Maduro takes definitive steps toward free and fair elections.

Trump’s curbs on established companies doing business with PDVSA prompted the socialist-ruled nation to turn to swaps with Iran and other countries, while trading with a series of little-known customers.

PDVSA’s new customers and swaps have allowed it to keep exports stable around 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year, after they zigzagged in 2020.

However, a worsening shortage of diluents has recently limited oil exports, placing the Orinoco Belt production in an “emergency”, according to PDVSA documents from August and September related to its output status that were reviewed by Reuters.

PDVSA plans to mix the Iranian condensate with extra heavy oil to produce diluted crude oil, a grade demanded by Asian refiners that it has struggled to export since late 2019 when suppliers halted diluent shipments due to sanctions, the three sources said.

Blocco Europeo. Il +250% del natural gas manda in fumo le ambizioni green.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-29.

Nel Blocco Europeo, l’indice dei prezzi alla produzione, PPI, è salito al 12.1%, mentre il WPI, Wholesale Price Index, nella sola Germania si attesta al +12.3%.

Il Blocco Europeo è in stagflazione.

Blocco Europeo è strangolato dai rincari del 280% YoY del Gas Naturale. – Mr Putin ringrazia.

COP26, ‘Glasgow climate summit’ si preannuncia essere un fiasco memorabile

G20. Nessun paese ha adempiuto gli Accordi di Parigi del 2015.

Mondo. Materie Prime. I prezzi alla estrazione continuano a salire.

Ma su tutti i macro dati troneggia il Wholesale Price Index per il gas naturale.

«(Reuters) – Households across Europe face a jump in energy bills this winter due to a global surge in wholesale power and gas prices.

Benchmark European gas prices have surged around 250% this year due to low stock levels, high demand in Asia, high carbon prices and outages.

Governments across Europe are coming under pressure to curb energy bills to help families and small businesses as economies slowly emerge from the coronavirus pandemic.» [Reuters]

* * * * * * *

«Europe’s green ambitions could be hit as gas prices reach record highs»

«The recent spike is already having a tangible impact across the bloc»

«Some European leaders and lawmakers have blamed the EU for the energy price increases»

«The European Union could struggle to advance its green agenda as gas prices soar across the bloc, according to experts who warn against slowing down investment into the sector»

«However, these ambitions could be hit as a natural gas shortage on the continent drives prices higher»

«The front-month gas price at the Dutch TTF hub, a European benchmark, has risen more than 250% since the start of the year. It traded at about 74 euros ($87) a megawatt-hour on Tuesday — just shy of its record high of 79 euros it hit last week»

«The recent spike is already having a tangible impact»

«Soaring energy prices have hit economies across Europe»

«The risk to climate policymaking lies perhaps mostly in a loss of credibility ahead of the global COP26 climate talks in Glasgow later this year»

«“If wealthy countries in the EU are seen subsidizing energy for households that is in part supplied by fossil fuels, then the EU can hardly tell poorer countries to stop subsidizing household fuel consumption supplied by fossil fuels»

«Some European leaders and lawmakers have blamed the EU for the energy price increases»

«Poland said Monday that it will keep a coal mine running, even though the European Court of Justice ruled it should be shut down»

* * * * * * *

Riassumiamo in sintesi.

Con il natural gas rincarato del 250% nel volgere di un anno, si sono scatenate tutte le sequenziali conseguenze.

Questo combustibile alimenta infatti larga quota delle produzione di corrente elettrica.

Le ambizioni green si sono schiantate contro una situazione economica prossima al fallimento.

*

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Europe’s green ambitions could be hit as gas prices reach record highs.

– The recent spike is already having a tangible impact across the bloc.

– Spain, for instance, has announced emergency measures to limit the profits that energy companies can make from gas alternatives.

– Some European leaders and lawmakers have blamed the EU for the energy price increases.

*

London — The European Union could struggle to advance its green agenda as gas prices soar across the bloc, according to experts who warn against slowing down investment into the sector.

The European Commission, the executive arm of the EU, has vowed to become carbon neutral by 2050, presenting a concrete plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% from 1990 levels by the end of this decade.

However, these ambitions could be hit as a natural gas shortage on the continent drives prices higher. The front-month gas price at the Dutch TTF hub, a European benchmark, has risen more than 250% since the start of the year. It traded at about 74 euros ($87) a megawatt-hour on Tuesday — just shy of its record high of 79 euros it hit last week.

The recent spike is already having a tangible impact. Spain, for instance, has announced emergency measures to limit the profits that energy companies can make from gas alternatives, including renewables. The government is also hoping to cap what consumers are paying for their electricity.

“Soaring energy prices have hit economies across Europe, and if Madrid’s actions are imitated elsewhere as governments prioritize cheap energy over the green transition, the EU’s credibility in advancing global climate action could take a hit,” Henning Gloystein, director of energy at the consultancy firm Eurasia Group, said in a note Friday.

Spain is not the only country to cap energy price increases, with France and Greece making similar moves. But the plan in Spain has been the subject of some criticism.

Iberdrola, a Spanish energy firm with a focus on renewables, said the move “would undermine investor confidence in the country” at a time when the nation needs private money to achieve its climate ambitions.

“The risk to climate policymaking lies perhaps mostly in a loss of credibility ahead of the global COP26 climate talks in Glasgow later this year,” Gloystein told CNBC via email.

“If wealthy countries in the EU are seen subsidizing energy for households that is in part supplied by fossil fuels, then the EU can hardly tell poorer countries to stop subsidizing household fuel consumption supplied by fossil fuels,” Gloystein added.

Meanwhile, Jacob Kirkegaard, senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States think tank, said he is not overly worried at this point, but that the ongoing energy crisis “makes it even more important that the Spanish government finds other sources of financing.”

“You can’t stop financing windmills for people’s bills,” he said, adding that countries should not ease their investments in greener energies.

                         The EU’s fault?

There is a wider problem, however: Some European leaders and lawmakers have blamed the EU for the energy price increases.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, for instance, said earlier this month that “Polish power prices are tied to the EU’s climate policies,” according to Politico.

When asked if comments like these could hurt the EU’s green ambitions, Kirkegaard said: “There’s absolutely that risk because clearly the Polish government want to extract more money from the EU for the green transition.”

Poland said Monday that it will keep a coal mine running, even though the European Court of Justice ruled it should be shut down. Under the same ruling, Krakow has to pay a 500,000 euro fine for every day that it keeps the mine open.

The EU’s climate chief, Frans Timmermans, has insisted that the price increases are not the bloc’s fault. “Only about a fifth of the price increase can be attributed to CO2 prices rising,” he told the European Parliament earlier this month. “The others are simply about shortages in the market.”

“Had we had the green deal five years earlier, we would not be in this position because then we would have less dependency on fossil fuels and natural gas,” he added.

‘Fair green transition’

Kirkegaard said that “it is too early to tell” if the price rises are going to jeopardize the EU’s green ambitions. The biggest risk, in his opinion, is whether public support for a greener economy falls because it is perceived to be impacting on their bills.

The European Commission announced earlier this summer that there would be special funds allocated to support the most vulnerable parts of the population in this green transition. The question is whether that will suffice.

“This must be a fair green transition. This is why we proposed a new Social Climate Fund to tackle the energy poverty that already 34 million Europeans suffer from,” Ursula von der Leyen, president of the commission said at a speech last week.

Mondo. Borse. Crollo in attesa delle decisioni di Lagarde e di Powell.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-28. H 17:08.

Il focus resta sempre sul Forum Bce a Sintra con l’intervento d’apertura della presidente Christine Lagarde e oltreoceano con l’audizione alla Commissione banche del Senato americano del presidente della Fed, Jerome Powell.

L’occidente è in stagflazione.

In altri termini, è in un vicolo cieco.

Volenti o nolenti si dovrà accettare il tapering ed una severa riduzione dei deficit. Nessuno si faccia ilusioni, ma proprio nessuna.

*

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Borsa: Europa perde terreno con tecnologici, Milano -1,3%

Le Borse europee si appesantiscono ulteriormente a metà seduta con Milano che perde l’1,3% (Fste Mib 25.797 punti). Maglia nera è Parigi (-1,65%), mentre Londra cede lo 0,58% e Francoforte l’1,09% . Non cambia il leitmotiv della giornata con la fiammata del petrolio e i rendimenti dei bond governativi in rialzo. Il decennale del Regno Unito ha toccato l’1%, livello che non raggiungeva da 18 mesi. Negativi anche i future su Wall Street. E sale lo spread tra Btp e Bund che si avvicina ai 104 punti con il rendimento del decennale italiano che è allo 0,84 per cento.

Il focus resta sempre sul Forum Bce a Sintra con l’intervento d’apertura della presidente Christine Lagarde e oltreoceano con l’audizione alla Commissione banche del Senato americano del presidente della Fed, Jerome Powell. A Milano sono confermate le vendite su Stm (-4,75%) che paga la crisi dei semiconduttori. Tra i peggiori anche Amplifon (-4,9%) e Interpump (-4,24%) . Tiene Eni (+1,45%) con il brent sempre a 80 dollari al barile. L’indice d’area europeo, lo stoxx 600, perde l’1,3% con la caduta di tecnologici e immobiliare. Sul mercato valutario sempre in flessione l’euro sul dollaro con la moneta unica a 1,1679 sul biglietto verde.

Usa. Buffett Indicator 239%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-28.

The Buffett Indicator is the ratio of total US stock market valuation to GDP. Named after Warren Buffett, who called the ratio “the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment”. (Buffett has since walked back those comments, hesitating to endorse any single measure as either comprehensive or consistent over time, but this ratio remains credited to his name). To calculate the ratio, we need to get data for both metrics: Total Market Value and GDP.

                         Total Market Value

The most common measurement of the aggregate value of the US stock market is the Wilshire 5000. This is available directly from Wilshire (links to all data sources below), with monthly data starting in 1971, and daily measures beginning in 1980. The Wilshire index was created such that a 1-point increase in the index corresponds to a $1 billion increase in US market cap. Per Wilshire, that 1:1 ratio has drifted, and as of Dec 2013 a 1-point increase in the index corresponded to a $1.15 billion dollar increase. We adjust the data back to inception (and projected going forward) on a straight-line basis to compensate for this drift. For example, the Sep 2020 Wilshire Index of 35,807 corresponds to a total real market cap value of $42.27T USD.

For data prior to 1970 (where Wilshire data is not available) we use the Z.1 Financial Account – Nonfinancial corporate business; corporate equities; liability, Level, published by the Federal Reserve, which provides a quarterly estimate of total market value back to 1945. In order to integrate the datasets, we index the Z.1 data to match up to the 1970 Wilshire starting point.

Combined, these data make our Composite US Stock Market Value data series, shown below. Our current estimate of composite US stock market value is $54.7T.

                         GDP

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) represents the total production of the US economy. This is measured quarterly by the US Government’s Bureau of Economic Analysis. The GDP is a static measurement of prior economic activity – it does not forecast the future or include any expectation or valuation of future economic activity or economic growth. The GDP is calculated and published quarterly, several months in arrears, such that by the time the data is published it is several months old. In order to provide updated data for the most recent quarter we use the most recent GDPNow estimate published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Based on this, our current estimate of (annualized) GDP is $22.9T.

                         The Ratio of the Two

Given that the stock market value represents expectations of future economic activity, and the GDP is a measure of most recent actual economic activity, the ratio of these two data series represents expected future returns relative to current performance. This is similar in nature to how we think about the PE ratio of a particular stock. It stands to reason that this ratio would remain relatively stable over time, and increase slowly as technology allows for the same labor and capital to be used ever more efficiently.

Regno Unito. Passaporti temporanei per autotrasportatori stranieri.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-28.

Il Regno Unito rilascerà passaporti temporanei per autotrasportatori stranieri.

Sarà tutto da vedere quanti autotrasportatori stranieri aderiranno a questa offerta.

* * * * * * *

«Up to 10,500 lorry drivers and poultry workers can receive temporary UK visas as the government seeks to limit disruption in the run-up to Christmas»

«The government confirmed that 5,000 fuel tanker and food lorry drivers will be eligible to work in the UK for three months»

«The scheme is also being extended to 5,500 poultry workers»

«But the British Chambers of Commerce said the measures were the equivalent of “throwing a thimble of water on a bonfire”»

«A shortage of lorry drivers has caused problems for a range of industries in recent months, from supermarkets to fast food chains»

«In recent days, some fuel deliveries have been affected, leading to lengthy queues at petrol stations»

«As well as allowing more foreign workers, other measures include using Ministry of Defence examiners to increase HGV (heavy goods vehicle) testing capacity, and sending nearly one million letters to drivers who hold an HGV licence, encouraging them back into the industry»

«→→ Logistics UK estimates that the UK is in need of about 90,000 HGV drivers – with existing shortages made worse by the pandemic, tax changes, Brexit, an ageing workforce, and low wages and poor working conditions ←←»

«→→ Mark Fels, director of the HGV Recruitment Centre, said many young people were “desperate” to get into the industry but couldn’t afford the thousands of pounds it costs to get a HGV license ←←»

«conditions for drivers also needed to improve, pointing out that facilities such as overnight lorry parks were much better on the continent»

«’Thimble of water on a bonfire’»

«It said supermarkets alone needed an additional 15,000 HGV drivers to operate at full capacity»

* * * * * * *

Le incongruenze ed irrazionalità del sistema economico occidentale stanno emergendo con forza.

Questo sistema è ingessato da una pletora di leggi e regolamenti che di fatto ne stanno bloccando il funzionamento, per non parlare poi di regimi impositivi che rendono il lavoro non redditizio.

I trasporti, e non solo quelli inglesi, sono un esempio lampante. Si assiste ad una carenza cronica di autotrasportatori, fatto questo che blocca tutta la distribuzione.

Oberati da una burocrazia paralizzante, costretti a fare vita randagia, sono per di più sottopagati.

In una società tutta presa ad esaltare il valore della tecnologia e dei lavori al top della filiera finanziaria, ricca di influencer televisivi fabbricati ad arte, l’umile e faticoso lavoro degli autotrasportatori è stato del tutto sottovalutato.

Tenendo conto delle tasse e dei balzelli, i 4,000 euro al mese di riducono ad un netto che a stento supera i 2,000: troppo poco per un simile lavoro.

*

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Hauliers and poultry workers to get temporary visas.

Up to 10,500 lorry drivers and poultry workers can receive temporary UK visas as the government seeks to limit disruption in the run-up to Christmas.

The government confirmed that 5,000 fuel tanker and food lorry drivers will be eligible to work in the UK for three months, until Christmas Eve.

The scheme is also being extended to 5,500 poultry workers.

Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said it would “ensure preparations remain on track” for the festive season.

But the British Chambers of Commerce said the measures were the equivalent of “throwing a thimble of water on a bonfire”.

And the Road Haulage Association said the announcement “barely scratches the surface”, adding that only offering visas until Christmas Eve “will not be enough for companies or the drivers themselves to be attractive”.

However, the news was welcomed by freight industry group Logistics UK, which called the policy “a huge step forward in solving the disruption to supply chains”.

A shortage of lorry drivers has caused problems for a range of industries in recent months, from supermarkets to fast food chains.

In recent days, some fuel deliveries have been affected, leading to lengthy queues at petrol stations – despite ministers insisting the UK has plenty of fuel.

As well as allowing more foreign workers, other measures include using Ministry of Defence examiners to increase HGV (heavy goods vehicle) testing capacity, and sending nearly one million letters to drivers who hold an HGV licence, encouraging them back into the industry.

Officials said the loan of MoD examiners would help put on “thousands of extra tests” over the next 12 weeks.

Recruitment for additional short-term HGV drivers and poultry workers will begin in October.

Mr Shapps said: “We are acting now, but the industries must also play their part with working conditions continuing to improve and the deserved salary increases continuing to be maintained in order for companies to retain new drivers.”

Logistics UK estimates that the UK is in need of about 90,000 HGV drivers – with existing shortages made worse by the pandemic, tax changes, Brexit, an ageing workforce, and low wages and poor working conditions.

The British Poultry Council has previously warned it may not have the workforce to process as many turkeys as normal this Christmas because it has historically relied on EU labour – but after Brexit it is now more difficult and expensive to use non-UK workers.

The Department for Transport said it recognised that importing foreign labour “will not be the long-term solution” to the problem and that it wanted to see employers invest to build a “high-wage, high-skill economy”.

It said up to 4,000 people would soon be able to take advantage of training courses to become HGV drivers.

This includes free, short, intensive courses, funded by the Department for Education, to train up to 3,000 new HGV drivers.

These new “skills bootcamps” will train drivers to be road ready and gain a Cat C or Cat C&E license, helping to tackle the current HGV driver shortage.

The remaining 1,000 drivers will be trained through courses accessed locally and funded by the government’s adult education budget, the DfT said.

Mark Fels, director of the HGV Recruitment Centre, said many young people were “desperate” to get into the industry but couldn’t afford the thousands of pounds it costs to get a HGV license.

He called for the government to recognise the industry as a “vocation” and offer student loans to help fund training.

Sue Terpilowski, from the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport, said conditions for drivers also needed to improve, pointing out that facilities such as overnight lorry parks were much better on the continent.

                         ‘Thimble of water on a bonfire’

Industry groups the Food and Drink Federation and Logistics UK both welcomed the visa changes, with federation chief Ian Wright calling the measures “pragmatic”.

But the British Retail Consortium said the number of visas being offered would “do little to alleviate the current shortfall”.

It said supermarkets alone needed an additional 15,000 HGV drivers to operate at full capacity ahead of Christmas.

British Chambers of Commerce president Baroness McGregor-Smith said the changes were the “equivalent of throwing a thimble of water on a bonfire”, as it would “not be enough to address the scale of the problem”.

Labour’s shadow foreign secretary Lisa Nandy said the changes were needed but described them as “a sticking plaster at the eleventh hour”.

“Once again the government has been caught asleep at the wheel when they should have been planning for months for this scenario,” she told the BBC.

Cina. Dichiarate illegali le criptovalute e le loro transazioni. Un gran bel siluro.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-28.

Il problema è semplicissimo.

Nessuno stato sovrano può permettersi che una valuta non propria possa liberamente circolare, essere utilizzata per transazioni, ma a prezzi di cambio stabiliti da realtà extraterritoriali.

Non a caso la Cina sta già sperimentando una sua propria criptovaluta, governata dalla banca centrale.

Dichiarando illegali le criptovalute e le loro transazioni la People’s Bank of China ottiene due risultati.

In primo luogo, elimina una considerevole quota di interferenze estere sul proprio mercato valutario.

In secondo luogo, minaccia e sottomina direttamente tutto il sistema organizzativo che intendeva utilizzare le criptovalute quale cavallo di troia per condizionare le nazioni sovrane.

* * * * * * *

«China’s central bank says all cryptocurrency-related activities are illegal, vows harsh crackdown»

«The People’s Bank of China said services offering trading, order matching, token issuance and derivatives for virtual currencies are strictly prohibited»

«→→ Overseas cryptocurrency exchanges providing services in mainland China are also illegal ←←»

«China’s central bank renewed its tough talk on bitcoin Friday, calling all digital currency activities illegal and vowing to crack down on the market»

«the People’s Bank of China said services offering trading, order matching, token issuance and derivatives for virtual currencies are strictly prohibited»

«Overseas crypto exchanges providing services in mainland China are also illegal»

«Overseas virtual currency exchanges that use the internet to offer services to domestic residents is also considered illegal financial activity»

«→→ Workers at foreign crypto exchanges will be investigated ←←»

«Financial institutions and nonbank payment institutions cannot offer services to activities and operations related to virtual currencies»

«The price of bitcoin sank over 6.5% in 24 hours, last trading at around $41,882, according to Coin Metrics data at midmorning Friday ET. Ethereum, the second-largest digital asset, fell 9% to around $2,867»

«The PBOC also ordered banks and non-bank payment institutions like Alibaba affiliate Ant Group not to provide services related to crypto»

* * * * * * *

Come al solito, servirà del tempo per valutare i reali effetti di un simile provvedimento.

Ma, a valutare almeno le prime reazioni dei mercati, il colpo è stato ben assestato, anche tenendo conto del timing.

*

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China’s central bank says all cryptocurrency-related activities are illegal, vows harsh crackdown.

– The People’s Bank of China said services offering trading, order matching, token issuance and derivatives for virtual currencies are strictly prohibited.

– Overseas cryptocurrency exchanges providing services in mainland China are also illegal, the PBOC said.

– It’s not the first time China has gotten tough on cryptocurrencies. Earlier this year, Beijing announced a crackdown on crypto mining.

*

China’s central bank renewed its tough talk on bitcoin Friday, calling all digital currency activities illegal and vowing to crack down on the market.

In a Q&A posted to its website, the People’s Bank of China said services offering trading, order matching, token issuance and derivatives for virtual currencies are strictly prohibited. Overseas crypto exchanges providing services in mainland China are also illegal, the PBOC said.

“Overseas virtual currency exchanges that use the internet to offer services to domestic residents is also considered illegal financial activity,” the central bank said, according to a CNBC translation of the comments. Workers at foreign crypto exchanges will be investigated, it added.

The PBOC said it has also improved its systems to step up monitoring of crypto-related transactions and root out speculative investing.

“Financial institutions and nonbank payment institutions cannot offer services to activities and operations related to virtual currencies,” the central bank said, reiterating past comments.

The price of bitcoin sank over 6.5% in 24 hours, last trading at around $41,882, according to Coin Metrics data at midmorning Friday ET. Ethereum, the second-largest digital asset, fell 9% to around $2,867.

Stocks with heavy exposure to crypto also slumped in premarket trading, with Coinbase down by nearly 4%, MicroStrategy slipping 5% and Riot Blockchain down over 6%.

It’s not the first time China has gotten tough on cryptocurrencies. Earlier this year, Beijing announced a crackdown on crypto mining, the energy-intensive process that verifies transactions and mints new units of currency. That led to a sharp slump in bitcoin’s processing power, as multiple miners took their equipment offline.

The PBOC also ordered banks and non-bank payment institutions like Alibaba affiliate Ant Group not to provide services related to crypto.

In July, the central bank told a Beijing-based company to shut down for allegedly facilitating digital currency transactions with its software.

China’s crypto crackdown comes as Beijing is looking to fulfill its climate targets. The country is the world’s biggest carbon emitter, and has set out to become carbon neutral by 2060.

Meanwhile, the PBOC is also working on its own digital currency. China is seen as a leading contender in the race toward central bank-issued digital currencies, having trialed a virtual version of the yuan in several regions.

Germania. Gli Elettori scelgono la Spd e puniscono la Cdu, Merkel ed Herr Laschet.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-27.

Chiariamo subito un punto cruciale.

Non è la Merkel che ha abbandonato la vita politica, sono stati invece gli Elettori a dare alla Cd, alla Merkel ed a Laschet il benservito.

Elezioni 2021: Cdu 18% (Union 24.1%, dei quali 6.4% sono della Csu)

Elezioni 2017: Cdu 32.9%, 246 seggi

Elezioni 2013: Cdu 41.5%, 311 seggi

* * * * * * *

Merkel è riuscita a prendere la Cdu al 41.5% ed a affondarla fino al 18%.

Un potere distruttivo non da poco.

La Merkel è una liberal ideologica, che agisce coatta dal credo che ha assunto. Nemmeno la più evidente delle realtà potrebbe mai distoglierla dal suo agire.

Il tutto unito da una consistente superbia, per cui ritiene di essere superiore a tutto ed a tutti.

Ed infatti ha sempre fatto la lezione a tutti gli stati che non condividevano il suo credo minacciando sanzioni ininfluenti e ed anatemi degli Imam.

Ha perseguito il mito delle energie rinnovabili, ha demonizzato il carbone fossile, ha spinto fino alle estreme conseguenze l’uso del gas naturale, portando Germania, e con lei l’Europa, ad una dipendenza pressoché totale dalle forniture russe, ha ridotto al lumicino l’industria tedesca, specie quella automobilistica, e questa cercare di emigrare.

Ma il suo errore fatale, la goccia che ha fatto tracimare il vaso, è stato l’aver voluto imporre Herr Armin Laschet quale capo della Cdu e candidato Cancelliere. L’unico merito di Laschet è quello di essere un replicante della Merkel, una persona “yes, Madam, yes”. Merkel avrebbe voluto che la sua ideologia sopravvivesse con Laschet. Ma gli Elettori non ne hanno voluto proprio sapere.

Lascia in eredità la stagflazione.

* * * * * * *

Germania. Grandi capitali in fuga verso la Svizzera. Paura delle sinistre.

Blocco Europeo è strangolato dai rincari del 280% YoY del Gas Naturale. – Mr Putin ringrazia.

Germania. Agosto21. PPI, Producer Prices of industrial products, +12% su agosto20.

Germania. Agosto21. Wholesale price +12.3% su agosto20. Inflazione che cresce.

Blocco europeo. Prezzi degli energetici fuori controllo. Stagflazione in casa.

*

A tutti questi danni, si associa una crisi demografica degna della Grande Peste. È riuscita quasi a distruggere le famiglie tedesche autoctone.

Germania. Demografia. Tasso di fertilità crollato a 1.54. – Destatis.

Germania. La demografia stritola Germania e Große Koalition.

Germania. Demografia. Accademia Tecnica. Mancano dieci milioni di lavoratori.

Germania. Mancano 1.6 milioni di lavoratori esperti, Meister. – Handelsblatt.

Germania. Incidenza economica del calo demografico. – Bloomberg. 

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Nessuno si stupisca quindi se l’Elettorato con queste elezioni abbia voluto voltare pagina.

Non a caso la Spd ha ripetutamente fatto presente che intende perseguire la Realpolitik.

È la fine ufficiale di una politica ed economica fatta solo ideologiche.