Pubblicato in: Brasile, Cina, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Brasile. Cina. Huawei investirà 800 milioni Usd in uno stabilimento.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-08-17.

2019-08-11__Huawei Brasile 001

«e quivi, deposta l’usata minaccia,

le donne superbe, con pallida faccia,

i figli pensosi pensose guatar

Manzoni. Adelchi


«Huawei Technologies Co Ltd plans to build an $800 million plant in Brazil’s Sao Paulo state over the next three years»

«the Chinese tech giant ramps up its Latin American presence against U.S. objections»

«The new factory is likely to produce smartphones»

«the company was gearing up to build the plant to meet expected demand following Brazil’s first 5G spectrum auction, scheduled for March 2020.»

«Huawei, the world’s third-largest smartphone manufacturer, imports handsets from China for the Brazilian market and has mulled local production»

«U.S. President Donald Trump has urged governments worldwide to shun Huawei, arguing its equipment could be vulnerable to Chinese eavesdropping»

* * * * * * *

Questa notizia si presta a molteplici chiavi di lettura.

La principale tiene conto del fatto che sia il Governo brasiliano sia Huawei hanno fatto uno studio previsionale della situazione a tre anni, ossia del mercato a quel tempo disponibile al completamento dell’impiento.

Le proiezioni IMF al 2022 danno la Cina ad un pil ppa di 34,465 (20.54%) miliardi di Usd, gli Stati Uniti di 23,505 (14.01%), e l’India di 15,262 (9.10%) Usd. Seguono Giappone con 6,163 (3.67%),  Germania (4.932%), Regno Unito 3,456 (2.06%), Francia 3,427 (2.04%), Italia 2,677 (1.60%). Russia 4.771 (2.84%) e Brasile 3,915 (2.33%).

I paesi del G7 produrranno 46,293 (27.59%) mld Usd del pil mondiale, mentre i paesi del Brics renderanno conto di 59,331 mld Usd (35.36%).

Ma sempre le previsioni IMF a lungo termine indicano un pil ppa dei G7 a 57,093 mld Usd (24.24%) contro i 122,298 mld dei Brics (51.92%). L’Europa avrebbe un pil ppa di 16,212 mld, ossia il 6.88% del pil ppa mondiale. Conterà invero molto, ma molto poco.

* * * * * * *

I numeri sono numeri: poi, chiunque li può interpretare a piacer suo, ma i numeri restano.

Sta di fatto che chi investisse in uno stabilimento che necessitasse di tre anni di costruzione ed almeno cinque anni per l’ammortamento sarebbe obbligato a tenerli ben presente, per non costruire cattedrali nel deserto.

Dovrebbe essere evidente come l’Occidente non sia più in grado di dettare le proprie condizioni a chicchessia: sarà invece vero il contrario. Saranno i Brics ad imporre le loro condizioni all’Occidente.


Reuters. 2019-08-10. China’s Huawei to invest $800 million in new Brazil factory

Huawei Technologies Co Ltd plans to build an $800 million plant in Brazil’s Sao Paulo state over the next three years, the governor said, as the Chinese tech giant ramps up its Latin American presence against U.S. objections.

On a trip to China on Friday, Sao Paulo Governor João Doria, accompanied by Huawei executives, said the company was gearing up to build the plant to meet expected demand following Brazil’s first 5G spectrum auction, scheduled for March 2020.

The new factory is likely to produce smartphones, the company told Reuters in an email. “Depending on the performance of the smartphone operation in the local market, Huawei will consider building a plant in Sao Paulo in the near future,” it said in a statement.

Production would be for domestic and foreign markets, according to the Sao Paulo government.

Huawei, which has been operating in Brazil for 21 years, already has one factory producing equipment for telecoms infrastructure in Sao Paulo state, with 2,000 employees.

The location of the new plant, which according to Doria will employ 1,000 people, will be decided in the coming months and the $800 million will be invested over a three-year period following the upcoming 5G auction.

In April, Reuters reported that the Chinese company was making a second attempt at cracking the Brazilian smartphone market with the launch of two high-end handsets and local hires to manage the business.

Huawei, the world’s third-largest smartphone manufacturer, imports handsets from China for the Brazilian market and has mulled local production.

U.S. President Donald Trump has urged governments worldwide to shun Huawei, arguing its equipment could be vulnerable to Chinese eavesdropping.

So far, few have heeded the warnings, but limitations in the U.S. market have pressured Huawei to strengthen its footing elsewhere.

Trump raised the Huawei issue during a visit by Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro to the White House in March. But Vice President Hamilton Mourão said in June that Brazil had no plans to bar Huawei from its 5G network.

U.S. diplomats did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Sweden’s Ericsson and Finland’s Nokia Oyj also have factories in Sao Paulo state and are racing to lead 5G deployment in Brazil.

Ericsson and Nokia have not responded to a request for comment on Huawei’s push into region.

Annunci
Pubblicato in: Cina

Hong Kong. La polizia militare la ha circondata.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-08-13.

2019-08-13__Hong Kong 002

How Many Chinese Soldiers Are in Hong Kong and Why

«After weeks of anti-government protests in Hong Kong, anxiety is growing that China might mobilize the People’s Liberation Army — as it did 30 years ago to quash demonstrations in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square. Chinese troops have been stationed in Hong Kong since the British handed the city back to China in 1997. Chinese officials seem willing to at least feed the speculation with hints and signals, including the release of a video showing troops just across the border practicing riot-control techniques. While a military intervention seems unlikely for now given the enormous repercussions it would surely have, just the possibility has set nerves on edge.

How many troops are there?

An estimated 6,000 are stationed in the city at any given time, with thousands more located across the border in Shenzhen, according to Rand Corp. The PLA’s Hong Kong headquarters sits in the city’s main business district, a few steps from Bank of America Tower, and there are barracks and other sites scattered across the city.»

*

Footage shows Chinese military vehicles purportedly moving towards Hong Kong border

«The Chinese government has released footage that appears to show military vehicles driving towards the Hong Kong border.

The short clip shows a series of roughly two dozen green armoured fighting vehicles entering a “service area” in a row and riding down a highway, purportedly towards Shenzhen, the mainland city bordering the territory.

The state-run People’s Daily did not comment on the purpose of the vehicles, but noted that the People’s Armed Police are in charge of “handling riots, turmoil, seriously violent, criminal activities, terrorist attacks and other societal security incidents”.

The post coincided with a statement from Chinese authorities vowing to crack down on Hong Kong protesters and likening the demonstrations to “terrorism”.

“Radical Hong Kong protesters have repeatedly used extremely dangerous tools to attack police officers,” said Yang Guang, a spokesman for the Chinese government’s Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office, in remarks translated by Chinese state media. “The first signs of terrorism are starting to appear.”

He said the protesters’ “violent crimes” must be dealt with “resolutely” and “without mercy”.

“If we allow these types of terrorist activities to continue, then Hong Kong will slide into a bottomless abyss,” China’s liaison office in Hong Kong added on Monday.»

*

Videos show a massive procession of Chinese military vehicles gathering along the Hong Kong border as China mulls over its next move in response to protests

« – Chinese military vehicles have gathered in Shenzhen, a city in mainland China bordering Hong Kong.

– Several videos posted to social media show a long procession of military trucks entering Shenzhen on Monday morning, apparently “in advance of apparent large-scale exercises,” according to the Chinese state tabloid Global Times.

– The vehicles belong to the Chinese People’s Armed Police Force, a paramilitary police force responsible for riot control and counterterrorism.

– Though China has become more vocal about its ability to mobilize armed forces in Hong Kong, experts say that the military displays are part of a wider strategy aimed at intimidation and deterrence and that it is unlikely that China will actually intervene at this stage.»

*

«The vehicles belong to the Chinese People’s Armed Police Force»

Questa polizia militare è addestrata per sedare rivolte e sommosse. Non solo. Essa agisce sotto una appendice del codice militare di guerra, che le conferisce i più ampi poteri. Tecnicamente, l’occupazione di Hong Kong non dovrebbe richiedere più di una giornata, lasciando spazio alla retata notturna. Dai precedenti, queste forze sarebbero sufficienti per arrestare dai cento ai duecentomila rivoltosi, ivi compresi gli stranieri operanti sotto le ngo.

Lo scalo merci di Shenzhen sembrerebbe essere stato sgombrato dalle merci.

*

Poniamoci una sola domanda.

Gli Stati Uniti celebrano come eroe nazionale Mr Abraham Lincoln, che aveva scatenato la guerra di secessione quando gli stati meridionali si erano staccati dagli Stati Uniti.

Perchè mai allora Mr Xi non dovrebbe preservare l’unità della Cina?

Pubblicato in: Armamenti, Cina, Geopolitica Asiatica

Cina. Isole artificiali adesso armate anche con aeroplani militari.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-08-13.

2019-07-28__Cina_Isole__001

Nel breve volgere di pochi anni la Cina ha costruito una serie di isole artificiali nel Mare Cinese del Sud. Adesso sta completando il loro armamento: dai supporti logistici aeroportuali, ai sistemi missilistici antiaerei ed antinave,  missili da crociera ed aerei da guerra.

«The J-10 jets have a combat range of about 500 miles (740 kilometers), putting much of the South China Sea and vital shipping lands within reach»

2019-07-28__Cina_Isole__002

La loro utilità dipende strettamente dalla tipologia del conflitto configurabile.

2019-07-28__Cina_Isole__003

Nel corso di una guerra nucleare, essendo obiettivi fissi, sarebbero facilmente distrutti anche solo con il lancio di una testata nucleare balistica. Ma, ovviamente, una situazione di questo tipo vedrebbe coinvolte tutte le realtà militari in una reciproca distruzione.

2019-07-28__Cina_Isole__004

Diversa la situazione nel caso di un problema militare locoregionale. Sicuramente una flotta allo stato dell’arte, quale quella americana, avrebbe la possibilità di penetrare il Mare Cinese del Sud, ma ciò avverrebbe pagando uno scotto severo. Se nel conflitto locale fosse invece coinvolta un’altra potenza locale, la supremazia cinese sarebbe schiacciante.

2019-07-28__Cina_Isole__005

* * * * * * *

2019-07-28__Cina_Isole__006

Una unica considerazione.

Anni fa, le isole artificiali non esistevano: adesso invece vi sono.

2019-07-28__Cina_Isole__008

2019-07-28__Cina_Isole__009


China building aircraft hangars on disputed islands in South China Sea, says US think

«China appears to be building reinforced aircraft hangars on reclaimed islands it controls in a disputed area of the South China Sea, according to a US think tank.

Satellite photographs taken in late July show the construction of hangars on Fiery Cross, Subi and Mischief reefs in the Spratly chain of islands and some have already been completed, according to a report by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Although no military aircraft have been spotted, each of the three small islands would soon have enough hangar space for 24 fighter jets, plus three to four larger planes, the think tank said. …. The hangars, in three different sizes, could accommodate any plane used by China’s air force, the think tank said. …. These include the J-11 and Su-30 fighters, H-6 bombers, the H-6U refuelling tanker and the air force’s largest aircrafts –the Y-20 and Il-76 transport planes.»

*


South China Sea: Satellite image shows Chinese fighter jets deployed to contested island

«A satellite image obtained by CNN shows China has deployed at least four J-10 fighter jets to the contested Woody Island in the South China Sea, the first known deployment of fighter jets there since 2017.

The image was taken Wednesday and represents the first time J-10s have been seen on Woody or any Chinese-controlled islands in the South China Sea, according to ImageSat International, which supplied the image to CNN.

The deployment comes as tensions remain high in the South China Sea and Chinese President Xi Jinping prepares to meet United States President Donald Trump at the G-20 summit in Japan next week.

Analysts who looked at the satellite photo for CNN said both the placement of the planes out in the open and accompanying equipment is significant and indicates the fighter jets were on the contested island for up to 10 days.

“They want you to notice them. Otherwise they would be parked in the hangars,” said Peter Layton, a former Royal Australian Air Force officer and fellow at the Griffith Asia Institute. “What message do they want you to take from them?”

Carl Schuster, a former director of operations at the US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center, said the deployment is designed to “demonstrate it is their territory and they can put military aircraft there whenever they want.”

“It also makes a statement that they can extend their air power reach over the South China Sea as required or desired,” Schuster said.

The J-10 jets have a combat range of about 500 miles (740 kilometers), putting much of the South China Sea and vital shipping lands within reach, Schuster said.

The four planes are not carrying external fuel tanks, the analysts said. That suggests they were to be refueled on the island, so the plan may be to keep them there awhile. ….

The Paracels sit in the north-central portion of the 1.3 million-square-mile South China Sea. They are also claimed by Vietnam and Taiwan, but have been occupied by China since 1974, when Chinese troops ousted a South Vietnamese garrison.

The past several years have seen Beijing substantially upgrade its facilities on the islands, deploying surface-to-air missiles, building 20 hangars at the airfield, upgrading two harbors and performing substantial land reclamation, according to the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative.

Woody Island has served as a blueprint for Beijing’s more prominent island-building efforts in the Spratly chain to the south, AMTI said in a 2017 report.»

*


China lands military plane at third Spratly Island, just 12 nautical miles from Philippines

«China has deployed military aircraft to a third outpost in a disputed South China Sea island chain, a move which will alarm rivals who believe Beijing has ramped up its military presence in the region.

The Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative published images showing a military aircraft, a Shaanxi Y-8, at Subi Reef in the Spratly Islands.

The plane was “designed as a military transport aircraft, but some variants are used for maritime patrol or signals intelligence,” said the think tank, which is part of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

The photographs reveal the first deployment of military aircraft on the island, which hosts one of three runways in the strategically important Spratlys. Military aircraft have now landed on all three of the airstrips, the AMTI said.

The organisation said that a naval patrol aircraft landed at Fiery Cross Reef two years ago, while two Xian Y-7 military transport aircraft were seen on Mischief Reef in January.»

*


The Real Problem with China’s South China Sea Bases

«China has built some islands in the South China Sea. Can it protect them?

During World War II Japan found that control of islands offered some strategic advantages, but not enough to force the United States to reduce each island individually. Moreover, over time the islands became a strategic liability, as Japan struggled to keep them supplied with food, fuel and equipment. The islands of the SCS are conveniently located for China, but do they really represent an asset to China’s military? The answer is yes, but in an actual conflict the value would dwindle quickly. ….

China has established numerous military installations in the South China Sea, primarily in the Spratly and Paracel Islands. In the Spratlys, China has built airfields at Subi, Mischief and Fiery Cross, along with potential missile, radar and helicopter infrastructure at several smaller formations. In the Paracels, China has established a significant military installation at Woody Island, as well as radar and helicopter facilities in several other areas. China continues construction across the region, meaning that it may expand its military presence in the future. The larger bases (Subi, Mischief, Fiery Cross and Woody Island) have infrastructure necessary for the management of military aircraft, including fighters and large patrol craft. These missiles, radars and aircraft extend the lethal reach of China’s military across the breadth of the South China Sea. ….

Missiles

Several of the islands serve as bases for SAM systems (including the HQ-9, with a range of 125 miles, and perhaps eventually the Russian S-400) and ground-launched cruise missiles (GLCMs). These missiles serve to make the South China Sea lethal for U.S. ships and aircraft that do not have stealth capabilities, or that do not enjoy a layered air-defense system. The SAM installations, buoyed by networks of radars, can effectively limit the ability of enemy aircraft to enter their lethal zone without significant electronic-warfare assistance. The GLCMs can add another set of launchers to China’s A2/AD network, although not necessarily with any greater effectiveness than missiles launched from subs, ships or aircraft.»

* * * * * * *

Pubblicato in: Cina, Commercio, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Stati Uniti

Apple. iPhone -12% anno su anno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-08-11.

2019-08-08__Apple__001

«Al primo posto nella vendita di smartphone c’è sempre saldamente la coreana Samsung, seguita dalla cinese Huawei, in crescita nonostante il blocco statunitense (vola nel mercato nazionale)»

«Sono cinesi anche il quarto e il quinto brand di smartphone più venduti: Xiaomi e Oppo»

«il record del 2017 (un miliardo e mezzo di smartphone venduti) sembra irraggiungibile»

«Vendite in picchiata per l’iPhone: -12% in tre mesi»

«Nel secondo trimestre del 2019, ha venduto il 12% in meno (25,06 miliardi di dollari) e per la prima volta dal 2012 le entrate dall’iPhone sono meno della metà di quelle di Apple (48%).»

* * * * * * *

Il mercato è saturo.

Al momento attuale quasi ogni persona ha uno smartphone ed il livello tecnologico anche dei modelli obsoleti soddisfa dignitosamente le richieste dell’utenza.

Le case produttrici hanno cercato di immettere sul mercato funzioni innovative non compatibili con i vecchi modelli, ma con scarsi risultati sui volumi di vendita.

* * *

Il problema si presenta però anche dal punto di vista politico: consiste nel cercare il predominio strategico in questo settore tecnologico. La politica può imporre dazi, protocolli di comunicazione, ed anche imporre una tassa sulla proprietà del terminale.


Vendite in picchiata per l’iPhone: -12% in tre mesi.

Il contributo al fatturato Apple è sceso sotto il 50%. Samsung vende più del doppio

L’iPhone scomparirà? Presto per dirlo, ma tutti i numeri dicono che lo smartphone più famoso al mondo non se la passa bene. Nel secondo trimestre del 2019, ha venduto il 12% in meno (25,06 miliardi di dollari) e per la prima volta dal 2012 le entrate dall’iPhone sono meno della metà di quelle di Apple (48%). Sempre nel trimestre aprile-giugno 2019, la compagnia della Mela ha venduto meno della metà degli smartphone Samsung, e 20 milioni unità in meno di Huawei.

Ma Apple va bene

Tim Cook e Apple si consolano con il segno più che torna sul giro d’affari totali (+1% nel secondo trimestre di quest’anno). I 53,81 miliardi vengono, oltre al detto 48% degli iPhone, dai nuovi record di vendite di iPad e Mac e dai nuovi dispositivi, come gli AirPods. Solo nel primo trimestre del 2018, iPhone valeva il 69,74 delle revenue di Apple. A settembre dovrebbe uscire il nuovo iPhone, un importante banco di prova per capire il futuro del Melafonino. Ci sono milioni e milioni persone nel mondo che non lo cambierebbero con nessun altro telefono, e difficilmente un colosso come iPhone sparirà, ma d’altronde nel 2007 il 46% dei cellulari venduti era Nokia. Oggi conoscete qualcuno che ha un Nokia?

Gli altri smartphone

Al primo posto nella vendita di smartphone c’è sempre saldamente la coreana Samsung, seguita dalla cinese Huawei, in crescita nonostante il blocco statunitense (vola nel mercato nazionale). Sono cinesi anche il quarto e il quinto brand di smartphone più venduti: Xiaomi e Oppo.

Ma la crisi dell’iPhone riguarda in generale tutti gli smartphone: sono sette trimestri di fila infatti che alla voce vendite c’è il segno meno. È aumentata la vita media dei telefonini, soprattutto perché oggi non escono ogni volta innovazioni tanto rivoluzionarie da farci venir voglia di cambiare uno smartphone comprato l’anno prima. Guardando i dati e le proiezioni, il record del 2017 (un miliardo e mezzo di smartphone venduti) sembra irraggiungibile. Ha guidato il settore tecnologico, ma oggi la leadership dello smartphone è in dubbio. È la prima volta da quando (nel 2008) la Apple lanciò uno degli oggetti più rivoluzionari di sempre: l’iPhone.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Cina. Peugeot chiude due stabilimenti. Costruttori europei alle corde.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-08-10.

Cina

«Peugeot maker PSA Group (PEUP.PA) and partner Dongfeng Group (0489.HK) have agreed to cut thousands of jobs in China and drop two of their four shared assembly plants, according to a document seen by Reuters, in a last-ditch bid to curb mounting losses as the world’s largest auto market loses steam»

«Dongfeng Peugeot Citroen Automobiles (DPCA), the carmakers’ joint venture based in Wuhan, central China, will halve its workforce to 4,000 as it closes one plant and sells another»

«The agreement may avert a threatened withdrawal by PSA, according to two sources at the French carmaker who said their chief executive had signaled that PSA might otherwise exit the 27-year-old partnership with its 12.2% shareholder Dongfeng, or even leave China altogether»

«We’re just a whisker away from having to withdraw from China»

«Many Western carmakers were already struggling before the downturn, as Chinese consumers abandoned their mid-market brands for increasingly assertive domestic rivals here including the global manufacturers’ own local partners»

* * * * * * *

Chi si fosse illuso di poter produrre in Cina come se fosse ancora in Europa avrebbe preso un colossale abbaglio.

Ci sono poi verità che non possono essere dette, e che quindi noi non diremo.

Ma anche un lamellibranco dovrebbe capire che fomentare sedizioni ad Hong Kong non è compatibile con il continuare a fare affari con i cinesi.


Reuters. 2019-08-10. Exclusive: PSA, Dongfeng to drop two China auto plants, halve workforce – document

Peugeot maker PSA Group (PEUP.PA) and partner Dongfeng Group (0489.HK) have agreed to cut thousands of jobs in China and drop two of their four shared assembly plants, according to a document seen by Reuters, in a last-ditch bid to curb mounting losses as the world’s largest auto market loses steam.

Dongfeng Peugeot Citroen Automobiles (DPCA), the carmakers’ joint venture based in Wuhan, central China, will halve its workforce to 4,000 as it closes one plant and sells another under plans agreed last month between PSA boss Carlos Tavares and Dongfeng Chairman Zhu Yanfeng, the document showed.

Both carmakers declined to comment on details of their restructuring plans. “We are working with our partners to improve the overall performance of our business in China in all its dimensions,” a PSA spokesman said.

The agreement may avert a threatened withdrawal by PSA, according to two sources at the French carmaker who said their chief executive had signaled that PSA might otherwise exit the 27-year-old partnership with its 12.2% shareholder Dongfeng, or even leave China altogether.

“We’re just a whisker away from having to withdraw from China,” said one person close to the PSA board. “It really is that serious.”

PSA is attempting a reboot in adverse conditions. Once an auto industry cash cow, the Chinese market contracted last year for the first time since the 1990s and is expected to decline another 5% in 2019, squeezed by a worsening U.S.-China trade war.

Many Western carmakers were already struggling before the downturn, as Chinese consumers abandoned their mid-market brands for increasingly assertive domestic rivals here including the global manufacturers’ own local partners.

PSA’s deep China problems go back even further, spanning four years of plunging sales and 400 million euros ($450 million) written off its DPCA stake, which is now valued at 500 million euros.

Its sales in the country shrunk almost threefold to 251,700 vehicles last year from a 2014 peak of 731,000.

“We’re not giving up,” a PSA spokesman said. “We are still pursuing our action plan to cut fixed costs.”

DPCA will now close its original assembly plant, Wuhan 1, and redevelop the site in a commercial partnership with the local government, according to the plans. The factory’s tooling and production will be transferred to the Wuhan 3 facility.

Headcount across DPCA will fall from 8,000 to 5,500 by the end of 2019 and to 4,000 within another three years, as it also sells off its idling Wuhan 2 facility, according to the document – which noted ongoing discussions with unidentified potential buyers.

Underperforming vehicles will be dropped as the Peugeot and Citroen lineups are streamlined around more profitable models, mirroring the European turnaround strategy now powering record margins in PSA’s home markets.

HURDLES

The carmakers’ dealings have often been fraught, and PSA executives including Tavares have voiced frustration with DPCA’s management. The French group’s shares briefly spiked on an Aug. 7 report that Dongfeng was preparing to divest its PSA stake, acquired in a 2014 bailout.

Questioned by analysts about China operations, Tavares pledged during PSA’s July 24 earnings call to “accelerate variable cost reduction, reduce fixed cost” and boost pricing.

“Our partner is in the same mindset,” he said of Dongfeng. “They also want to accelerate.”

The restructuring faces hurdles, not least the challenge of finding a Wuhan 2 buyer amid mounting uncertainty – although Chinese government restrictions on greenfield sites may help.

Over the past 18 months, Dongfeng’s Chairman Zhu tried repeatedly to persuade Honda (7267.T) or Nissan (7201.T) to take over one of the DPCA plants, Reuters reported on Aug 1.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Materie Prime

Cina. Potrebbe far scendere il petrolio a 30 Usd al barile.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-08-08.

Pechino-Città-Proibita-da-Piazza-Tiananmen

«nel mese di giugno, l’Iran ha messo sul mercato circa 550 mila barili giornalieri di petrolio, contro gli 875 mila di maggio ed i circa 2,5 milioni del giugno 2018»

«metà dell’export finisce in Cina»

«possibile crollo di 20-30 dollari»

«da un lato confermiamo la view a 60 dollari il barile per il 2020, dall’altro riteniamo che la decisione cinese di riprendere gli acquisti di petrolio iraniano possa innescare un crollo dei prezzi»

* * * * * * *

Se misurata in pil ppa, l’economia cinese supera quella statunitense.

La Cina ha tutti gli strumenti tecnici, economici, politici e finanziari per disgregare il mercato del petrolio.

Più che economica, questa sarebbe una scelta politica.

In ogni caso, una scelta di tale portata potrebbe avere anche effetti non desiderati.

Scenario da incubo per il petrolio: Pechino potrebbe spingere prezzi a 30$

La Cina potrebbe far crollare i prezzi del greggio. A dirlo sono gli analisti di BofA.

*

La decisione cinese di far ripartire gli acquisti di petrolio iraniano potrebbe portare a un crollo dei prezzi del greggio. È quanto si legge in un report elaborato da BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research.

BofA, che per l’anno prossimo stima prezzi sostanzialmente in linea con i livelli attuali a 60 dollari il barile, ritiene che “la decisione cinese di riavviare gli acquisti di petrolio iraniano potrebbe innescare un forte calo dei prezzi”.

Petrolio: possibile crollo di 20-30 dollari

In rosso dello 0,8% a 61,38 dollari il barile dopo il nuovo incremento della tensione sul fronte commerciale, il petrolio potrebbe perdere 20-30 dollari il barile nel caso in cui Pechino decidesse di “bilanciare” le misure statunitensi riprendendo in grande stile gli acquisti di petrolio da Teheran.

Negli ultimi tre mesi, secondo quanto riportato dal New York Times, sono numerosi i carichi di petrolio partiti dall’Iran in direzione dei porti cinesi (le rilevazioni della testata sono iniziate il 2 maggio).

“Le sanzioni statunitensi non hanno fermato le consegne di petrolio iraniano nel Mediterraneo ed in Asia”, ha detto Noam Raydan, analista di ClipperData, società che si occupa di monitorare i flussi di prodotti energetici.

Petrolio: in arrivo crollo dei prezzi?

“Se da un lato confermiamo la view a 60 dollari il barile per il 2020, dall’altro riteniamo che la decisione cinese di riprendere gli acquisti di petrolio iraniano possa innescare un crollo dei prezzi”.

Quella dello shopping da Teheran potrebbe far parte delle misure di ritorsione annunciate dal Ministero del Commercio cinese dopo che Trump ha minacciato tariffe di 10 punti percentuali su 300 miliardi di “made in China”.

Quella di acquistare petrolio iraniano “rappresenta un decisione che va a minare la politica estera statunitense e che rappresenta un modo per alleviare, nel breve, gli effetti sull’economia cinese dell’incremento delle tariffe statunitensi”.

Petrolio: metà dell’export finisce in Cina

Secondo i dati elaborati da S&P Global Platts, nel mese di giugno, l’Iran ha messo sul mercato circa 550 mila barili giornalieri di petrolio, contro gli 875 mila di maggio ed i circa 2,5 milioni del giugno 2018.

Gli analisti di S&P stimano che circa la metà dell’export stia finendo nel Celeste Impero.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Ideologia liberal

Cina. Hong Kong. La pazienza ha un limite.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-08-07.

Hong Kong 001

Gli stati sono aggettivati ‘sovrani’ perché hanno diritto e capacità a legiferare secondo tradizione e convenienza.

Se giustamente gli stati sono gelosi della propria autonomia e sovranità, è prassi disdicevole che uno stato straniero si impicci nei problemi interni di un altro.

Questo è il classico vizietto dei liberal socialisti, specie quelli europei.

Dal loro punto di vista vorrebbero imporre a tutti il loro credo ideologico che, sotto il nome di diritti umani, contrabbanda i diritti che secondo loro gli altri dovrebbero seguire. Sono davvero dei presuntuosi superbi.

Ad Hong Kong hanno fomentato ogni possibile tipologia di torbidi, ivi compresi dei gay pride ove a sfilare erano in gran parte occidentali in trasferta.

Hong Kong. Guarda guarda chi si rivede

Le fotografie sono inequivocabili.

Hong Kong 002

* * * * * * *

Nessuno stato nazionale può tollerare separazioni e/o scissioni. Negli Stati Uniti il tentativo dette la stura alla Guerra Civile, di questi tempi la Spagna ha usato l’esercito per il problema indipendentista della Catalogna. Ma peri liberal ciò che negli Stati Uniti ed in Spagna era giusto e santo, sarebbe iniquo in Cina.

«China warns Hong Kong protesters not to ‘play with fire’»

«He accused Western “anti-China forces” and “meddling hands behind the scene” of instigating unrest»

«he cited US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi who called the protests “a beautiful sight to behold”»

«the UK’s then-foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt who urged an investigation into the use of force by Hong Kong police»

*

Cinesi, gente pratica. Risolto il problema dell’integralismo islamico.

«Chinese authorities in the far-northwestern region of Xinjiang on Wednesday revised legislation to permit the use of “education and training centers” to combat religious extremism.»

«In practice, the centers are internment camps in which as many as 1 million minority Muslims have been placed in the past 12 months»

«The amended legislation states that Chinese regional governments “can set up vocational education and training centers … to educate and transform those who have been influenced by extremism.”»

«besides teaching the Mandarin language and providing vocational skills, the centers are now directed to provide “ideological education, psychological rehabilitation and behavior correction” under the new clause»

*

Nel laogai c’è posto anche per i ribelli di Hong Kong,


China warns Hong Kong protesters not to ‘play with fire’

China has issued a strong warning to Hong Kong’s protesters, saying their attempts “to play with fire will only backfire”.

A spokesman for China’s top policy office on Hong Kong told protesters not to “underestimate the firm resolve [of] the central government”.

Hong Kong has seen nine consecutive weeks of anti-government protests.

On Monday, a call for a general strike caused severe disruption, and more than 200 flights were cancelled.

Protesters want an independent inquiry into alleged police brutality, the complete withdrawal of a controversial extradition bill, and the resignation of Hong Kong’s leader Carrie Lam.

The demonstrations have frequently ended in violent clashes with police. They are seen as a challenge to Beijing’s authority in the territory – and a reflection of how many Hong Kongers fear that their freedoms are being eroded.

The former British colony is part of China but enjoys unique freedoms not seen on the mainland.

What did China say, and why is it significant?

The “radical demonstrations” have pushed Hong Kong “to the verge of a very dangerous situation”, said Yang Guang, a spokesman for the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office (HKMAO).

He warned the protesters not to “mistake restraint for weakness”.

Attempts to force Ms Lam to resign “will lead nowhere”, he said, adding that the protests had had a “serious impact” on Hong Kong’s economy.

It is one of the strongest warnings Beijing has issued over the protests so far. The HKMAO rarely holds news conferences on Hong Kong – but this is its second briefing in two weeks.

Mr Yang said that “radical and violent” forces were at the forefront of the protests, while “some misled but well intentioned” citizens were caught in the middle.

He accused Western “anti-China forces” and “meddling hands behind the scene” of instigating unrest.

As examples, he cited US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi who called the protests “a beautiful sight to behold”, and the UK’s then-foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt who urged an investigation into the use of force by Hong Kong police.

However, a pro-democracy politician, Lam Cheuk-ting, told the BBC there were no “external forces” behind the protests.

“It is not a movement organised by any overseas government but the Hong Kong people voluntarily,” he said.

Observers say the protests have largely appeared leaderless and unpredictable, involving “flash mob” style civil disobedience and voting through social media apps.

Could the military get involved?

While China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has troops stationed in Hong Kong, they are not expected to interfere in local issues – although the law does permit Hong Kong’s government to request their assistance for maintaining public order, or disaster relief.

During the news conference, Mr Yang was asked whether the Chinese military could get involved – but said Beijing was confident that Hong Kong police could restore order.

Last week, China’s army in Hong Kong prompted unease by posting a video of soldiers conducting anti-riot drills on the Chinese social media network Weibo.

What are the protests about?

The rallies began with fears over a proposed bill that would allow suspected criminals to be sent to mainland China to face trial.

Critics said it would undermine Hong Kong’s judicial independence and could be used to target those who spoke out against the Chinese government.

The row intensified as police were accused of using excessive force on protesters.

Though the bill has now been suspended, demonstrators want it fully withdrawn – and have also been expressing their anger at the police, and demanding an amnesty for protesters accused of rioting.

The protesters have become more confrontational in recent weeks, with demonstrators arguing that the government has not responded to peaceful rallies.

A city-wide strike on Monday crippled transport services and brought the city to a standstill.

About 250 flights were cancelled as airport and airline staff joined the strike.

Protests later took place in several districts, with police firing tear gas at demonstrators who rallied into the night, setting fires and besieging police stations.

In one district with a reputation for pro-Beijing sympathies, men wielding long poles clashed with demonstrators before falling back.

Police said 148 people, aged between 13 and 63, were arrested during Monday’s protests.

On Monday, Ms Lam gave her first media address in two weeks, warned that Hong Kong was “on the verge of a very dangerous situation”.

She also accused activists of using the extradition bill as a cover for their real goal, which was to “destroy Hong Kong”.

*


China warns Hong Kong protesters of severe repercussions

Demonstrators in Hong Kong should not underestimate China’s “immense strength,” a government official has warned. Unrest has reached new levels in recent days and punishment is “only a matter of time.”

*

China issued a stark warning to the “behind-the-scenes masterminds” on Tuesday over continued demonstrations in Hong Kong, saying that “those who play with fire will perish by it.”

At a press briefing in Beijing, Yang Guang, spokesman for the Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office of the State Council, said that central government has “immense strength” and that punishment for those behind the demonstrations is “only a matter of time.”

Yang added that the “radical protests… have severely impacted Hong Kong’s prosperity and stability, pushing it into a dangerous abyss.”

He also had a firm warning for the “criminals” behind the protests: “Don’t ever misjudge the situation and mistake our restraint for weakness.”

People power

Earlier on Tuesday, a group of activists wearing masks and hard hats held a press conference in the Mong Kok neighborhood of the city. They urged the city’s leader Carrie Lam to “return power to the people and to address the demands of Hong Kong citizens.”

The three activists, who declined to give their real names, said the group “was not affiliated with any political party or organization leading the movement.”

One of them added: “We strongly condemn the police for the series of violent acts and urge them and the government not to be enemies against the public.”

Escalating unrest

The protesters are seeking the resignation of Carrie Lam. In addition, they are angry at proposals which would allow case-by-case extraditions of alleged criminals to mainland China. The Chinese government recently shelved the plans in the wake of the demonstrations.

However, unrest has continued, if anything with more fervor than before, as protesters call for expanded democratic rights and further autonomy.

Police said Monday’s figures reached a new high with the largest daily toll of arrests since the protests began.

“During the operation yesterday, the police arrested 148 people consisting of 95 males and 53 females, aged between 13 and 63 years old,” superintendent John Tse said.

Lam warned the region was nearing a “very dangerous situation,” as she said the protests challenge China’s sovereignty.

“I dare say they are trying to destroy Hong Kong,” said Lam.

Erosion of rights

The crisis has become the biggest threat to China’s control of the region since its handover from the British in 1997.

Under the terms of the deal with Britain, Hong Kong has rights that are different to those on mainland China, such as an independent judiciary and freedom of speech.

But many say those rights are being stymied. 

Protesters point towards the extradition to the mainland of dissident booksellers, the disqualification of prominent politicians and the jailing of pro-democracy leaders.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Cina, Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti, Unione Europea

Considerazioni un po’ ciniche su cosa stia succedendo sui mercati.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-08-06.

Caravaggio. Davide con la testa di Golia (Caravaggio Vienna). 1607. Kunsthistorisches Museum, Vienna.

Caravaggio. Davide con la testa di Golia (Caravaggio Vienna). 1607. Kunsthistorisches Museum, Vienna. 


Currency War Begins: Chinese Yuan Crashes Past 7 To New Record Low; Global Markets Tumble After Beijing Suspends US Agri Imports

«China’s central bank has confirmed that it is, indeed, on, saying that it is able to keep the yuan exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level – whatever that means – while acknowledging that the Yuan plunging beyond 7 per dollar is due to market supply and demand, trade protectionism and expectations on additional tariffs on Chinese goods.

Meanwhile, resorting to its old, tired and worn out tricks, Dow Jones reports that the PBOC will crack down on short-term Yuan speculation, and anchor market expectations.

Which is great… if only the PBOC didn’t say exactly the same back in May, when it warned currenct traders that  those “shorting the yuan will inevitably suffer from a huge loss.”»

«China is firing all the big guns tonight, because just an hour after Beijing effectively devalued the yuan, when it launched the latest currency war with the US, Bloomberg reported that the Chinese government has asked its state-owned enterprises “to suspend imports of U.S. agricultural products after President Donald Trump ratcheted up trade tensions with the Asian nation last week.”»

* * * * * * *

2019-08-05__Yuan Yen 002

Le turbolenz che spirano sui mercati mondiali hanno acquisito una tale entità da fare molte considerazioni sulla genesi di questo fenomeno.

Forex – Yuan Falls Below 7 per Dollar as Trade Tensions Fuel Selloff

«The Chinese yuan tumbled more than 1% on Monday, falling below 7 per U.S. dollar for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis, as fears over a sudden escalation in the U.S.-China trade war sparked a selloff in Asian currency markets.

The yuan dropped below the 7 per dollar level, regarded as a major support level, falling to as low as 7.1097 per dollar in offshore trade and 7.0424 to the dollar onshore.

“This could well be the biggest moment for the yuan this year. The impact of U.S.-China trade is turning out to be very big,” said Masashi Hashimoto, senior currency analyst at MUFG Bank.

“Looking at the mid-point, the People’s Bank of China is trying to stem the yuan’s fall,” he said. “The PBOC doesn’t look like it is trying to use a weaker yuan to counter U.S. trade pressure. The yuan’s fall seems to be stemming from panicky selling.”

The steep selloff came after Beijing vowed on Friday to fight back against U.S. President Donald Trump’s abrupt decision to slap 10% tariffs on the remaining $300 billion in Chinese imports, a move that ended a month-long trade truce.

The weaker yuan weighed on Asian currency markets, sending the Korean won 1% lower to hit a three-year low of 1,218.3, while the new Taiwan dollar fell more than 0.5% to a two-month low of 31.61.

The flight to safety lifted the yen, which often gains in times of market stress thanks to Japan’s position as the world’s largest creditor. The dollar slipped to a seven-month trough of 105.78 yen, while the euro sank to its lowest since April 2017 at 117.64 yen.

Weakness against the yen saw the U.S. dollar index dip 0.11% to 97.74 by 02:45 AM ET (06:45 GMT) though the greenback was up against currencies exposed to China or commodities, including the Australian dollar.

The Aussie , a liquid proxy for emerging market and China risk, slipped to a fresh seven-month trough of 0.6748 after losing 1.6% last week.

The Swiss franc was boosted by safe-haven demand from the escalating trade tensions. Trump is also eyeing tariffs on the European Union, but is yet to make any formal announcements.

The euro was a touch higher against the dollar at 1.1119, extending its recovery from a two-year low of 1.1027 touched on Thursday.

On Friday, the closely-watched U.S. employment data showed non-farm payrolls increased by 164,000 jobs in July, fewer than the prior month, and wages increased modestly.

The data cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again in September after it delivered its first rate reduction in more than a decade last month.

The British pound hovered near 2017 lows at 1.2106, pressured by concerns about Britain exiting the European Union without a deal in place.»

*

Precisiamo immediatamente come nel trattare di argomenti così generali, quali le situazioni mondiali dei mercati, il numero delle concause rilevanti sia davvero molto elevato. Cercare di ragionare solo su alcuni parametri, sia pur di somma importanza, potrebbe esse fuorviante, ostacolare alla fine la comprensione del fenomeno nella sua globalità, perché dispersivo nei particolari. Non solo. La commistione della politica con l’economica e la finanza concorre potentemente a rendere del tutto incomprensibile quanto stia accadendo ed ostacola grandemente ogni possibile previsione futura.

Potrebbe essere utile fissare alcuni dati, siano pur essi grossolani.

– Il pil dell’Eurozona valeva 14,124 miliardi Usd nel 2009 ed a fine 2018 era invece 13,669 miliardi. Sono passati dieci anni in una completa stagnazione economica, mentre Stati Uniti, Brasile, India e Cina hanno continuato imperterrite le loro crescite.

– L’Ifm ha rilasciato i seguenti dati. Le proiezioni al 2023 danno la Cina ad un pil ppa di 37,067 (20.54%) miliardi di Usd, gli Stati Uniti di 24,537 (14.01%), e l’India di 16,785 (9.10%) Usd. Seguono Giappone con 6,358 (3.67%),  Germania 5,171 (32%), Regno Unito 3,5986 (2.06%), Francia 3,5447 (2.04%), Italia 2,755 (1.60%). Russia 4.933 (2.84%) e Brasile 4,168 (2.33%). I paesi del G7 produrranno 46,293 (27.59%) mld Usd del pil mondiale, mentre i paesi del Brics renderanno conto di 59,331 mld Usd (35.36%).

– Tutto il mondo occidentale, ma soprattutto paesi europei quali la Germania, presentano indici di fertilità delle femmine autoctone, sotto la unità, laddove il valore due sarebbe quello necessario a mantenere i livelli attuali della popolazione. Il rapporto tra vecchi e giovani in molti stati è sceso quasi alla parità.

Germania. La demografia stritola Germania e Große Koalition.

Germania. Demografia. Accademia Tecnica. Mancano dieci milioni di lavoratori.

Germania. Destatis. Crollo persone in età lavorativa dai 51.8m ai 40m

Germania. Stratificazione per tipologia di reddito. Classe media estinta.

Germania. Destatis. Crollo persone in età lavorativa dai 51.8m ai 40m nel 2035.

Germania. Ordini Industria. Febbraio -8.1% a/a. Marzo -6.0%

* * * * * * *

Questi dati sono da leggersi, e meditarli, in modo integrato: ciascuno di essi mette in evidenza un aspetto di base dell’Unione Europea e degli equilibri tra le potenze economiche e finanziarie mondiali.

La stasi di cui soffre l’Unione europea non è dovuta ad una qualche contingenza, bensì è strutturale.

Putin. L’ideologia liberal è ‘obsoleta’.

«Vladimir Putin has said liberalism is “obsolete” in an interview before he left for the G20 summit»

«The Russian president said the ideology that has underpinned Western democracies for decades had “outlived its purpose”.»

«The Russian premier also praised the rise of populism in Europe and America, saying ideas like multiculturalism were “no longer tenable”.»

«[Liberals] cannot simply dictate anything to anyone»

«He added that liberalism conflicted with “the interests of the overwhelming majority of the population,” and took aim at German Chancellor Angela Merkel for allowing large numbers of refugees to settle in Germany»

«This liberal idea presupposes that nothing needs to be done. That migrants can kill, plunder and rape with impunity because their rights as migrants have to be protected »

«Russia had no problems with LGBT persons… but some things do appear excessive to us»

«They claim now that children can play five or six gender roles …. Let everyone be happy, we have no problem with that. But this must not be allowed to overshadow the culture, traditions and traditional family values of millions of people making up the core population»

*

Nei fatti, non sta declinando la Weltanschauung europea, bensì la concezione illuminista e socialcomunista dello stato.

La teoria della divisione dei poteri aveva una sua logica interna quando una onnipotente massoneria prendeva tutte le decisioni in loggia, ripartendo quindi i diversi compiti tra potere legislativo, esecutivo e giudiziario, che agivano coordinati e supervisionati. La centrale di comando era unica e monolitica. In altri termini, era funzionale.

L’ideologia libera si era sviluppata passando dal controllo diretto dello stato delle proprietà produttive, al controllo esercitato tramite leggi, normativi e regolamenti, fino ad arrivare al controllo della cosa pubblica tramite le ngo.

Ora questo sistema non ha più modo di funzionare.

Lo statalismo ha fallito: è ancora in auge nell’Occidente, ma culturalmente è morto e la burocrazia che lo sostiene è destinata a squagliarsi nel tempo, complice una crisi economica di portata epocale.

Resta spazio esclusivamente per la Realpolitik.

A differenza del 1929, ove la crisi dell’Occidente equivaleva a quella mondiale, ad oggi invece l’Occidente rende conto solo del 27.9% del sistema economico globale: ciò che perdesse sarebbe immediatamente surrogato dai Cina e dai Brics.

Il sistema del welfare gestito dallo stato si è risolto in un fallimento: è economicamente e finanziariamente non sostenibile. Gli stati occidentali sono ricorsi al debito pubblico, oramai fuori controllo.

Similmente, l’ideologia green distrugge il comparto produttivo e necessiterebbe di capitali immensi per rimpiazzare la produzione energetica.

In estrema sintesi: senza produzione il sistema economico crolla e genera la società della miseria.

Da ultimo ma non certo per ultimo, l’organizzazione decisionale degli stati occidentali è inidonea a gestire situazioni di parcellizzazione politica, condannandosi cosi alla ingestibilità. Ma Cina ed i Brics hanno al contrario strutture statali che consentono tempi rapidissimi tra la presa delle decisioni e la loro messa in atto:poche ore.

*

La così detta ‘democrazia a suffragio universale‘ è solo uno dei tanti modi con cui gli stati possono reggersi, ed ha fatto il suo tempo. È stata la democrazia a voto censuale il mezzo con il quale l’Occidente ha potuto nell’ottocento trovare mezzi e risorse per gestire la rivoluzione industriale, poi quella ferroviaria ed infine quella dell’introduzione della corrente elettrica. E nulla vieta di pensare che la società della miseria debba ritornare sui propri passi, sempre che non sia obbligata a ricorrere ai così detti ‘governi forti‘.


USD/JPY drops below 106.00 on Yuan slide and risk aversion

– USD/JPY drops to seven-month lows below 106.00

– The Sino-US trade tensions push USD/CNH above 7.00, leading to risk aversion.

*

The bid tone around the anti-risk Japanese Yen strengthened, pushing the USD/JPY pair to a seven-month low of 105.80, as China’s Yuan slipped below a key level, triggering risk aversion in the financial markets.

The USD/CNH pair (offshore Yuan exchange rate) rose above 7.00 for the first time on record earlier today and clocked a high of 7.1086. As of writing, USD/CNH is trading at 7.07, representing 1.4% gains on the day.

The CNH has come under pressure due to escalating US-China trade tensions. President Trump said on Thursday that the US will impose an additional 10% levy on China’s goods worth $300 billion. China has vowed to fight back if the tariff hike takes effect on Sept. 1 as planned.

Further, Beijing has asked buyers to halt purchases of US agricultural products.

The escalating trade tensions and the slide in Yuan are weighing over riskier assets. This is evident from the futures on the S&P 500, which are currently down 1%.

As a result, the Japanese Yen is solidly bid at press time. The USD/JPY pair is currently trading at 106.05, representing a 0.5% drop on the day. The pair is reporting losses for the third straight day and could suffer a deeper drop during the day ahead if risk aversion worsens.

*


Sole 24 Ore. 2019-08-05. Borse sotto pressione per dazi Usa-Cina. Crollo dello yuan

Le tensioni sulla guerra commerciale mandano in rosso i listini del Far East e anche l’azionario europeo soffre in avvio di settimana.

*

La nuova escalation di tensione sui rapporti commerciali tra Stati Uniti e Cina – con Pechino che risponde alle minacce di Trump sui dazi lasciando scivolare lo yuan e cercando di limitare le importazioni di beni agricoli dagli Stati Uniti – manda di nuovo in rosso le Borse europee (già protagoniste di un -3,2% la scorsa settimana, stando all’indice Stoxx600) mentre gli acquisti premiano le valute rifugio e fanno scattare lo yen ai massimi da due anni verso l’euro e dalla primavera 2018 verso il dollaro.

Sulla scia della pesante performance dei listini asiatici (-1,7% il Nikkei di Tokyo, mentre Hong Kong e Seul arretrano di oltre il 2%), i listini azionari europei hanno mostrato nei primi minuti perdite anche superiori a un punto percentuale per poi limitare la flessione: Piazza Affari arretra di oltre un punto percentuale nel FTSE MIB, ma è Londra è la peggiore.

Fiat Chrysler e Renault: si riapre il negoziato?

Tra le big del listino milanese, tengono le utility (Enel la migliore) e si mette in mostra Finecobank prima dei conti trimestrali. Le vendite colpiscono invece Moncler e i gruppi industriali più sensibili agli effetti della guerra commerciale come Stmicroelectronics e Cnh Industrial. A livello europeo in forte calo i titoli del settore minerario, ma anche tecnologici e retailer. Rispetto al resto del settore automotive limita la flessione Fiat Chrysler Automobilesdopo le numerose indiscrezioni del week end relative alla possibile riapertura dei negoziati per l’alleanza con Renault che avrebbero come passaggio propedeutico la riduzione della partecipazione francese in Nissan. Fuori dal Ftse Mib spicca il +13% di Bio-On dopo due settimane turbolente a causa del report di Quintessential che nutriva forti dubbi sul business del gruppo emiliano: questa mattina Bio-On ha annunciato il deposito di un esposto contro le informazioni diffuse dal fondo americano. Balzo per Safilo a valle dei conti semestrali che hanno visto un ritorno all’utile netto adjusted per quasi 9 milioni di euro. Rialzo per Banca Ifis grazie ai risultati del II trimestre e l’upgrade a “buy” arrivato da Equita Sim.

Yuan ai minimi sul dollaro da 11 anni

Gli investitori vendono azioni sulla scia dei timori della guerra commerciale voluta da Washington contro Pechino. Rispetto a questo tema un segnale preoccupante arriva dal cambio dollaro-yuan. La moneta statunitense è salita sopra la soglia di 7 yuan. Il livello non ha un valore significativo dal punto di vista macroeconomico (anche se è il massimo toccato dal 2008) ma è molto rilevante sotto il profilo psicologico. Segnala che la Cina ha iniziato a reagire con forza nei confronti delle azioni del Presidente Usa Donald Trump.

La Banca centrale cinese ha, nei fatti lasciato deprezzare la valuta lanciando un segnale preciso: in una nota, la PBOC ha sottolineato che l’indebolimento è «dovuto agli effetti delle misure unilaterali e protezioniste» degli Stati Uniti e «all’attesa di dazi contro la Cina». Dopo che Trump ha annunciato nuovi dazi sull’import del Paese del Dragone (a partire dall’1 settembre), la svalutazione crea ulteriori problemi al commercio mondiale. Compreso quello delle aziende americane. Lo yuan debole, infatti, rende più conveniente acquistare prodotti “Made in China” mentre dà molto fastidio alle esportazioni verso il gigante asiatico. Va sottolineato, però, che le stesse imprese cinesi possono avere impatti negativi. Molte di esse sono indebitate in dollari e il rafforzamento di quest’ultimo crea loro diversi fastidi. Non solo. Una deflazione molto forte dello yuan farebbe nascere il rischio di un deflusso di capitali dal Paese. Una situazione che, viste le stesse continue proteste ad Hong Kong, potrebbe dare il via ad un “sell off” finanziario nel Far East.

Acquisti sulle valute rifugio: balzo dello yen

Sul mercato valutario, l’euro/dollaro scambia in area 1,11 ma è sulle monete-rifugio (come il franco svizzero e lo yen) e sul crollo dello yuan cinese che si concentra l’attenzione: lo yen è trattato a 106 per un dollaro e sotto 118 per un euro. La corsa della moneta giapponese ha contribuito alla caduta della Borsa di Tokyo. Il prezzo del petrolio scivola sotto 55 dollari al barile nella consegna settembre del Wti e a 61 dollari nel Brent ottobre.

BTp, spread resta sopra 200. Cala il rendimento del decennale

Poco mosso l’andamento dello spread, il differenziale di rendimento tra il decennale benchmark italiano (Isin IT0005365165) e il pari durata tedesco. Lo spread in avvio dei mercati europei si attesta a 203 punti base, contro i 204 della chiusura di venerdì scorso, quando aveva chiuso in leggero progresso. Il rendimento del BTp italiano è in lieve calo all’1,5%, contro l’1,55% della chiusura di venerdì.

Gli appuntamenti di oggi

Oltre al proseguo nella pubblicazione dei dati semstrali (tra gli altri Ascopiave, Cairo Communication, FinecoBank, Interpump, Pininfarina, e Tinexta) da segnalare: in Italia la nota mensile sull’andamento dell’economia in luglio; in Germania e nell’Eurozona gli indici dei responsabili degli acquisti aziendali; negli Stati Uniti l’ Indice ISM non manifatturiero.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Commercio, Unione Europea

Cina. Tassa anti-dumping sull’acciaio da EU, Indonesia, Giappone, Sud Korea.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-07-25.

2019-07-23__Cina. Acciaio 001

«China, the world’s largest stainless steel producer, churned out 26.71 million tonnes of stainless steel products in 2018, up 2.4% from a year ago»

«The country imported 1.85 million tonnes of stainless steel products last year, up 53.7% from 2017»

*

«China said on Monday it will impose anti-dumping duties on some stainless steel products imported from the European Union, Japan, South Korea and Indonesia»

«Anti-dumping tariffs of 18.1% to 103.1% will be applied to stainless steel billets and hot-rolled stainless steel plates from companies in the EU and the three Asian nations, effective July 23»

«The decision follows an anti-dumping probe in July last year after a complaint filed by state-owned Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel»

* * * * * * *

La Cina ha dimensioni continentali sia per quanto riguarda la superficie sia per quanto riguarda la popolazione. Le cifre che la coinvolgono sono quindi a livello continentale.

Nei fatti, la quota di 1.85 milioni di tonnellate di acciaio inossidabile importata  non dovrebbe avere grande rilevanza, esattamente come la tassa anti – dumping, che spazia dal 18.1% al 102.1%.

Il problema più che industriale è politico.

Intanto, Unione Europea, Indonesia, Giappone e Sud Korea si sarebbe fatte paladine di un commercio corretto, ma produrre e vendere in dumping, ossia sottocosto, è proprio tutto fuorché cosa corretta.

Il messaggio dovrebbe allora risultare nella sua chiarezza.

Non si può montare in cattedra e cercare di fare la morale agli altri, e poi essere pescati a commerciare scorrettamente.

Non si può soffiare sul fuoco ad Hong Kong ed aspettarsi che i cinesi se ne stiano inerti.

L’economia cinese ha assunto adesso dimensioni tali da essere in grado di porre in campo contromisure che potrebbero anche essere molto dolorose.


Reuters. 2019-07-22. China to impose anti-dumping tax on stainless steel from Indonesia, EU, Japan, South Korea

BEIJING (Reuters) – China said on Monday it will impose anti-dumping duties on some stainless steel products imported from the European Union, Japan, South Korea and Indonesia.

Anti-dumping tariffs of 18.1% to 103.1% will be applied to stainless steel billets and hot-rolled stainless steel plates from companies in the EU and the three Asian nations, effective July 23, China’s Ministry of Commerce said in a statement.

The decision follows an anti-dumping probe in July last year after a complaint filed by state-owned Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel (000825.SZ).

“The investigation agency has made a final decree that there was dumping of the investigated products and it has caused substantive damage to the industry in China,” said the commerce ministry in the statement.

Stainless steel billets and hot-rolled stainless steel plates are mainly used as raw material to make cold-rolled stainless steel products or used in shipbuilding, containers, rail, power and other industries.

China, the world’s largest stainless steel producer, churned out 26.71 million tonnes of stainless steel products in 2018, up 2.4% from a year ago, according to China’s Stainless Steel Association.

The country imported 1.85 million tonnes of stainless steel products last year, up 53.7% from 2017.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Finanza e Sistema Bancario

Star Market. Oggi primo giorno spumeggiante del Nasdaq cinese.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-07-22.

Champagne__

Questa mattina ha aperto lo Star Market, l’equivalente cinese del Nasdaq. che opera nell’ambito dello Shanghai Stock Exchange.

Al momento, sono venticinque i titoli in quotazione, che hanno dimostrato sostanziali aumenti di quotazione.

«Trading hit a fever pitch, with shares rocketing as much as 520%, as China’s new Nasdaq-style board for homegrown tech firms debuted on Monday, with valuations exceeding even the expectations of veteran investors braced for a wild ride.»

«Trading of Anji had to be suspended for 10 minutes at 10.20am after the stock soared by 404 per cent to 197.6 yuan from its offering price of 39.19 yuan.»

«The firms, spanning industries from microchips and biotechnology to artificial intelligence, were greeted by an immediate buying spree as trading opened at 9.30am. They all went on to record gains of at least 100 per cent by the end of the morning session, but settled back slightly in the afternoon to close at least 84 per cent higher»

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Se l’entusiasmo sia più che comprensibile, incrementi di questo livello sembrerebbero essere del tutto contrari al comune buon senso.

Poi, come al solito nei periodi estivi, i volumi trattati sono stati scarni.

Sarebbe quindi cosa savia prendere atto di questa nuova opportunità, ma anche lasciar decantare la situazione.

Infatti, questa nuova realtà ha chiari significati politici: la China intende andare a competere per il predominio mondiale nel settore tecnologico avanzato.

«About four million qualified retail investors with no less than 500,000 yuan in investment capital have registered to trade shares on the new market, according to China Business News. More than 100 million individual stock traders buy and sell on the regular mainland China bourses.

Star Market was ordered into existence by Chinese President Xi Jinping in November last year. It is aimed at helping Beijing sustain economic growth by funding technological innovation rather than through massive infrastructure spending. China’s regulators have spent the past eight months preparing the ground for Monday’s launch.

The launch of the new board is a fresh sign China has shifted its focus from quantity and pace to quality in driving economic growth, …. China is highlighting the role of the capital market in bolstering technology companies, and encouraging them to conduct technological innovation»

Verosimilmente, lo Star market sarà guardato con occhio di riguardo da parte dello stato cinese.


South China Morning Post. 2019-07-22. Star Market, a ‘breakthrough in 30-year history of China’s stock market’, gets off to shining start as all debutants see share prices soar

« – All 25 debutants on Shanghai’s new Star Market finish the first day’s trading with gains of at least 84 per cent

– Semiconductor maker Anji Microelectronics is the star performer, its share price rising fivefold on day one

The Shanghai Stock Exchange’s new Star Market got off to a suitably stellar start on Monday with all 25 debutants soaring as investors clamoured for a slice of the action.

The firms, spanning industries from microchips and biotechnology to artificial intelligence, were greeted by an immediate buying spree as trading opened at 9.30am. They all went on to record gains of at least 100 per cent by the end of the morning session, but settled back slightly in the afternoon to close at least 84 per cent higher.

Anji Microelectronics (Shanghai), a semiconductor manufacturer, got off to a momentous start, its shares opening 287 per cent higher than the initial public offering price.

Trading of Anji had to be suspended for 10 minutes at 10.20am after the stock soared by 404 per cent to 197.6 yuan from its offering price of 39.19 yuan.»

*


Investing. 2019-07-22. Circuit breakers trip, shares soar as China’s Nasdaq-style bourse debuts

«Trading hit a fever pitch, with shares rocketing as much as 520%, as China’s new Nasdaq-style board for homegrown tech firms debuted on Monday, with valuations exceeding even the expectations of veteran investors braced for a wild ride.

All of the first batch of 25 companies – ranging from chip-makers to health care firms – more than doubled their already frothy initial public offering (IPO) prices on the STAR Market, operated by the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

“The price gains are crazier than we expected,” said Stephen Huang, vice president of Shanghai See Truth Investment Management. “These are good companies, but valuations are too high. Buying them now makes no sense.” …. »

*


Business Times. 2019-07-22. Most companies surge on first day of trade on China’s Star Market

«China’s new Nasdaq-style board for homegrown technology firms started trading on Monday, with most of the stocks surging in their debut.

Most of the first batch of 25 companies – ranging from chip-makers to biotech firms – climbed quickly in early trade on the STAR Market, operated by the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

Zhangjiang Hangke Technology Inc was the first company to hit an upper-limit circuit breaker designed to temporarily halt trading in a bid to calm frenzied buying, climbing 30 per cent from the market open.

Suzhou Harmontronics Automation Technology, however, triggered its circuit breaker in the opposite direction, falling 30 per cent from the market open.»

*


Reuters. 2019-07-22. Manic Monday for China’s Nasdaq-style bourse as shares rocket

SHANGHAI (Reuters) – Trading on China’s new Nasdaq-style board for homegrown tech firms hit a fever pitch on Monday, sending shares up as much as 400% for the day, and far exceeding the expectations of veteran investors braced for a wild ride.

Sixteen of the first batch of 25 companies – ranging from chip-makers to health care firms – more than doubled their already frothy initial public offering (IPO) prices on the STAR Market, operated by the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

The companies racked up average gains of 140% in a raucous first day of trade that tripped the exchange’s circuit breakers designed to calm frenzied activity. The day’s weakest performer leapt 84.22%.

“The price gains are crazier than we expected,” said Stephen Huang, vice president of Shanghai See Truth Investment Management. “These are good companies, but valuations are too high. Buying them now makes no sense.”

Modeled after Nasdaq, and complete with a U.S-style IPO system, STAR may be China’s boldest attempt at capital market reforms yet. It is also seen driven by Beijing’s ambition to become technologically self-reliant as a prolonged trade war with Washington catches Chinese tech firms in the cross-fire.

Trading in Anji Microelectronics Technology (Shanghai) Co Ltd (688019.SS), a semiconductor firm, was briefly halted twice as the company’s shares hit two circuit breakers – first after rising 30%, then after climbing 60% from the market open.

The mechanisms did little to keep Anji shares in check as they soared as much as 520% from their IPO price in the morning session. Anji shares ended the day up 400.2% from their IPO price, the day’s biggest gain, giving the company a valuation of nearly 242 times 2018 earnings.

Suzhou Harmontronics Automation Technology Co Ltd (688022.SS), in contrast, triggered its circuit breaker in the opposite direction, falling 30% from the market open in early trade before rebounding. But by the market close, the company’s shares were still 94.61% higher than their IPO price.

Wild share price swings, partly the result of loose trading rules, had been widely expected. IPOs had been oversubscribed by an average of about 1,700 times among retail investors.

The STAR Market sets no limits on share prices during the first five days of a company’s trading. That compares with a cap of 44% on debut on other boards in China.

In subsequent trading sessions, stocks on the new tech board will be allowed to rise or fall a maximum 20% in a day, double the 10% daily limit on other boards.

Regulators last week cautioned individual investors against “blindly” buying STAR Market stocks, but said big fluctuations were normal.

Looser trading rules were aimed at “giving market players adequate freedom in the game, accelerating the formation of equilibrium prices, and boosting price-setting efficiency,” the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) said in a statement on Friday.

The SSE added that it was normal to see big swings in newly listed tech shares, as such companies typically have uncertain prospects, and are difficult to evaluate.

The exchange cited big fluctuations in IPOs shares on Nasdaq and the Hong Kong stock exchange, in particular singling out recently listed electric car firm Nio Inc (NIO) and Chinese start-up Luckin Coffee (LK.O).

SSE said that an index tracking the STAR Market would be launched on the 11th trading day following the debut of the 30th company on the board.

MAIN BOARD DRAG

Investor focus on the STAR Market in the short term could weigh on the main board in terms of liquidity and attention, said Zhu Junchun, chief analyst with Lianxun Securities.

That effect was clear on Monday, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index .SSEC falling 1.27%, and the blue-chip CSI300 index .CSI300 ending 0.69% lower.

Dual-listed China Railway Signal & Communications Corp Ltd (688009.SS)(3969.HK) clearly illustrated the gap in investor enthusiasm. Its STAR Market shares more than doubled from their IPO price, even as its Hong Kong shares dropped more than 11% following worse-than-expected preliminary results.

Huang at Shanghai See Truth suggested rational investors wait on the sidelines and observe the market for a month, before making purchasing decisions.

Some investors, nevertheless, hailed the debut of the board that Beijing hopes will propel investment in the sector and help the country innovate and compete globally.

Yang Tingwu, vice general manager of Tongheng Investment, a hedge fund house in Fujian province, said he viewed 80% of listed companies as “cannon fodder”, but the chance of the remaining 20% producing China’s next Tencent (0700.HK) or Huawei made the market turmoil worth it.

“The STAR Market opens a new chapter for China’s stock market. Toast to the Chinese dream in our capital markets!”, he said.