Pubblicato in: Cina

Hong Kong. Proteste non autorizzate e violenze, molteplici arresti.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-07-04.

Rule of Law 013

L’Oxford English Dictionary definisce il termine ‘rule of law’ nei seguenti termini:

«The authority and influence of law in society, especially when viewed as a constraint on individual and institutional behavior; (hence) the principle whereby all members of a society (including those in government) are considered equally subject to publicly disclosed legal codes and processes»

*

«Principio costituzionale di derivazione britannica con cui si fa riferimento al principio della pari dignità di ogni persona di fronte alla legge, tutelandola da qualsiasi forma di arbitrio che ne possa ledere i diritti fondamentali.

Pertanto, ogni cittadino ha il diritto incomprimibile e irrinunciabile di pretendere da parte di tutti i soggetti pubblici e privati il rispetto di determinate norme giuridiche nonché, di fronte ai tribunali, di godere di un pari trattamento rispetto agli organi amministrativi e soggetti giuridici pubblici.

In particolare, in Gran Bretagna la Rule of law  non è riferita all’imperium dell’autorità statale, ma alla vigenza di una fonte del diritto derivante dalle pronunce giurisprudenziali (diversamente dai paesi di Civil law [vedi] che la rinvengono nella legge). Conseguenze dirette sono il primato della legge, l’uguaglianza di tutti dinanzi alla legge, la perseguibilità dei reati solo in virtù di una legge certa e da parte di una Corte legittimamente costituita.» [Fonte]

* * * * * * *

In realtà, esiste un problema a monte, spesso scotomizzato ed assunto in modo implicito, fatto questo che genera confusione.

Tutti i sistemi giuridici si basano sui concetti metagiuridici che li improntano. In via riduttiva, si potrebbe dire che dipendono dalla Weltanschauung del legislatore.

Per esempio, la costituzione italiana prevede all’art. 1 che “La sovranità appartiene al popolo, che la esercita nelle forme e nei limiti della Costituzione“, mentre all’art.5 riporta che “La Repubblica, è una e indivisibile“, etc.

Ci si pensi bene. Che la sovranità appartenga al popolo è un concetto antecedente la stesura del testo costituzionale, esattamente come l’assunto che la repubblica sia una ed indivisibile: la costituzione recepisce ed istituzionalizza questi concetti, che assume essere i suoi fondamenti.

Ma non è assolutamente detto che simili Weltanschauung siano condivise e condivisibili.

Le vicende dei separatisti catalani dovrebbero essere esempio significativi. Per loro la Spagna poteva essere scissa in due componenti.

* * * * * * *

Come tutti gli stati occidentali, anche la Cina si dichiara unica ed indivisibile. Esattamente come la Spagna, oppure il Regno Unito per quanto riguarda il Nord Irlanda, la Cina ha approvato un recente testo di legge che regolamenta le pubbliche dimostrazioni e l’associazione politica nell’ambito del suo territorio.

La legge era ben nota a tutti, e tutti i cinesi sono chiamati ad osservarla. Quanti non si adeguino incorrono quindi nei provvedimenti previsti per tali comportamenti.

I dimostranti hanno violato le leggi, e per la norma del rule of law meritano un equo processo ed una severa condanna.

* * * * * * *

Ciò detto, sorge spontaneo il porsi la domanda su quale principio giuridico gli stati occidentali, e quelli occidentalizzati, si ergano a giudici supremi ed inappellabili degli ordinamenti giuridici di paesi terzi.

Con quale diritto, per esempio, la Germania condanna la Cina, quando poi da trenta anni l’ufficio adozioni della Città di Berlino affidava sistematicamente i trovatelli ad un network di pedofili, tra il compiacimento generale?

Per non parlare poi della cesura che corre tra posizioni governative e quelle delle grandi internazionali occidentali, che fanno a gara per poter andare a produrre in Cina.

* * * * * * *


Protests break out in Hong Kong as first arrest made under new security law.

«Hong Kong was facing up to a new reality on Wednesday, after China’s central government imposed a sweeping national security law late the night before that critics say has stripped the city of its autonomy and precious civil and social freedoms, and cements Beijing’s authoritarian rule over the territory.

Hundreds turned out to protest the legislation in the busy shopping district of Causeway Bay but were met with a heavy security presence. Riot police fired pepper spray into the crowd, kettled and dispersed protesters, and deployed water cannons.

During the protest, Hong Kong police made the first arrests under the new law, including a man who was holding a black independence flag, and soon afterward a woman with a sign reading “Hong Kong Independence.”

At least 300 people were arrested on Wednesday, with nine arrests of five men and four women on suspicion of violating the national security law, according to police. Police said in an earlier tweet that one officer was injured after being stabbed in the arm. ….

In vague language, the legislation criminalizes secession, subversion, terrorism, and collusion with foreign powers. People convicted of such crimes can face sentences of up to life in prison ….

The move has also sparked international condemnation»

No. La comunità internazionale non ha condannato un bel nulla. Ciò è stato fatto solo da alcuni stati occidentali.

Quando poi le loro stesse leggi criminalizzano “secession, subversion, terrorism, and collusion with foreign powers”

Ci si domanda: chi e cosa mai si credono di essere?

Pubblicato in: Cina

Cina. Maggio. Profitti Industriali +6% anno su anno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-06-29.

2020-06-28__Cina Profitti Ind 013

Ecco in estrema sintesi gli ultimi macrodati pubblicati.

– PMI. Manifatturiero 50.7

– PMI. Non Manifatturiero 53.6

– Produzione industriale annuale (degli ultimi 12 mesi) -2.8%

– Produzione industriale annuale +4.4%

– Vendite al Dettaglio (Annuale) -2.8%

– Vendite al Dettaglio (degli ultimi 12 mesi) -14.01%

– Profitti Industriali +6% anno su anno

* * * * * * *

«Profits at China’s industrial firms rose for the first time in sixth months in May, suggesting the country’s economic recovery is gaining traction and brightening the outlook for manufacturing investment and jobs»

«China’s national bureau of statistics said profits at China’s industrial firms in May rose 6% year-on-year to 582.3 billion yuan ($82.28 billion)»

«The rebound followed a 4.3% fall in April, and is its sharpest monthly gain since March 2019»

«Economic activity in China is clearly improving after the lifting of tough virus containment measures that led to weeks of near paralysis»

«Earnings for Chinese factories were hit by the sharpest factory-gate price drop in more than four years recorded in May, while exports slipped again, erasing a transient gain in April»

«For the first five months of 2020, industrial firms’ profits fell 19.3% from the same period last year to 1.84 trillion yuan»

«the oil refinery sector recorded a profit of 11.6 billion yuan in May, up 8.9% year-on-year, swinging from a loss of 21.8 billion yuan the previous month»

«Power sector profits grew 10.9% in May, compared with a decline of 15.7% in April.»

«Liabilities at industrial firms rose 6.6% on year at end-May, compared with a 6.2% increase as of end-April.»

* * * * * * *

Il sistema economico cinese ha imboccato la strada della ripresa, mostrando una vitalità che molti non le riconoscevano.

Sarà un processo lungo, ma il trend sembrerebbe essere ben definito.

Sicuramente la Cina si scontrerà con la questione degli accordi commerciali con gli Stati Uniti e con il fatto che molti dei paesi nei quali esportava sono al momento in piena crisi, e senza mezzi risulta essere impossibile finanziare un import.

*


China industrial firms’ May profits post first monthly rise in 6 months

Profits at China’s industrial firms rose for the first time in sixth months in May, suggesting the country’s economic recovery is gaining traction and brightening the outlook for manufacturing investment and jobs.

China’s national bureau of statistics said profits at China’s industrial firms in May rose 6% year-on-year to 582.3 billion yuan ($82.28 billion), according to a statement on Sunday.

The rebound followed a 4.3% fall in April, and is its sharpest monthly gain since March 2019.

Economic activity in China is clearly improving after the lifting of tough virus containment measures that led to weeks of near paralysis. But the recovery has been uneven and demand at home and abroad remains sluggish amid concerns of a second wave of infections and a global recession.

Despite May’s earnings growth, “market demand remains relatively weak amid the epidemic, and sustainability of the profit recovery deserves further observation,” Zhu Hong, senior statistician at the statistics bureau said in the statement.

Earnings for Chinese factories were hit by the sharpest factory-gate price drop in more than four years recorded in May, while exports slipped again, erasing a transient gain in April.

Futures prices for steel, which have surged this year on a government push for more infrastructure projects, fell last week as rising steel production and lean demand from downstream users stoked worries about oversupply.

For the first five months of 2020, industrial firms’ profits fell 19.3% from the same period last year to 1.84 trillion yuan.

May’s profit growth was aided by significant profit recoveries in key industries including oil refinery, power, chemicals and steel.

For example, the oil refinery sector recorded a profit of 11.6 billion yuan in May, up 8.9% year-on-year, swinging from a loss of 21.8 billion yuan the previous month. Power sector profits grew 10.9% in May, compared with a decline of 15.7% in April.

Zhu also attributed May’s profit growth to easing cost pressures, improving profit margins, positive impact from policy stimulus and much higher investment returns.

Earnings at China’s state-controlled industrial firms were down 39.3% on an annual basis for January-May, versus a 46.0% fall in the first four months, the statistics bureau data showed.

Private sector profits fell 11% in the first five months, narrowing from January-April’s 17.2% slump.

Liabilities at industrial firms rose 6.6% on year at end-May, compared with a 6.2% increase as of end-April.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Cina, Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti, Unione Europea

IMF. World Economic Outlook. Italia pil -12.8%, che vada bene.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-06-25.

2020-06-25__IMF 013

Le previsioni economiche dell’Imf sono usualmente accurate e di norma si sono confermate nei fatti.

2020-06-25__IMF 014

«A Crisis Like No Other, An Uncertain Recovery»

«Global growth is projected at –4.9 percent in 2020, 1.9 percentage points below the April 2020 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast»

«The COVID-19 pandemic has had a more negative impact on activity in the first half of 2020 than anticipated, and the recovery is projected to be more gradual than previously forecast»

«In 2021 global growth is projected at 5.4 percent. Overall, this would leave 2021 GDP some 6½ percentage points lower than in the pre-COVID-19 projections of January 2020»

«The adverse impact on low-income households is particularly acute, imperiling the significant progress made in reducing extreme poverty in the world since the 1990s»

«Growth in the advanced economy group is projected at –8.0 percent in 2020, 1.9 percentage points lower than in the April 2020 WEO. There appears to have been a deeper hit to activity in the first half of the year than anticipated, with signs of voluntary distancing even before lockdowns were imposed. This also suggests a more gradual recovery in the second half as fear of contagion is likely to continue. Synchronized deep downturns are foreseen in the United States (–8.0 percent); Japan (–5.8 percent); the United Kingdom (–10.2 percent); Germany (–7.8 percent); France (–12.5 percent); Italy and Spain (–12.8 percent). In 2021 the advanced economy growth rate is projected to strengthen to 4.8 percent, leaving 2021 GDP for the group about 4 percent below its 2019 level.»

«In China, where the recovery from the sharp contraction in the first quarter is underway, growth is projected at 1.0 percent in 2020, supported in part by policy stimulus»

«India’s economy is projected to contract by 4.5 percent following a longer period of lockdown and slower recovery than anticipated in April»

«In Latin America, where most countries are still struggling to contain infections, the two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico, are projected to contract by 9.1 and 10.5 percent, respectively, in 2020. The disruptions due to the pandemic, as well as significantly lower disposable income for oil exporters after the dramatic fuel price decline, imply sharp recessions in Russia (–6.6 percent), Saudi Arabia (–6.8 percent), and Nigeria (–5.4 percent), while South Africa’s performance (–8.0 percent) will be severely affected by the health crisis.»

«In 2021 the growth rate for emerging market and developing economies is projected to strengthen to 5.9 percent, largely reflecting the rebound forecast for China (8.2 percent).»

2020-06-25__IMF 015

* * * * * * *

Per via delle ripercussioni del lockdown e degli interventi per attenuare gli effetti della pandemia nel 2020, il debito e il deficit dei conti pubblici italiani balzeranno dal 134.8% del 2019 al 166.1% del Pil.

Alcune conclusioni sarebbero ragionevoli.

– Le economie avanzate, l’occidente e paesi occidentalizzati, presentano nel 2020 una contrazione del -8.0% del pil reale, mentre i paesi emergenti riducono del -3.0%.

– La Cina è l’unica nazione a chiudere il 2020 con un pil +1.0%, proiettato a crescere nel 2021 dell’8.2%.

– Il volume di scambi di merci e servizi è proiettato ad un -13.4% nel 2020 nei paesi ad economia avanzata.

– Si noti infine come tutti i paesi occidentali abbiano alti rapporti debito /pil, mentre Cina, Russia e Messico hanno rapporti debito / pil di 52%, 13.9%, 53.75, rispettivamente.

*


IMF. World Economic Outlook Update, June 2020. [Full Text pdf]

A Crisis Like No Other, An Uncertain Recovery.

Global growth is projected at –4.9 percent in 2020, 1.9 percentage points below the April 2020 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a more negative impact on activity in the first half of 2020 than anticipated, and the recovery is projected to be more gradual than previously forecast. In 2021 global growth is projected at 5.4 percent. Overall, this would leave 2021 GDP some 6½ percentage points lower than in the pre-COVID-19 projections of January 2020. The adverse impact on low-income households is particularly acute, imperiling the significant progress made in reducing extreme poverty in the world since the 1990s.

As with the April 2020 WEO projections, there is a higher-than-usual degree of uncertainty around this forecast. The baseline projection rests on key assumptions about the fallout from the pandemic. In economies with declining infection rates, the slower recovery path in the updated forecast reflects persistent social distancing into the second half of 2020; greater scarring (damage to supply potential) from the larger-than-anticipated hit to activity during the lockdown in the first and second quarters of 2020; and a hit to productivity as surviving businesses ramp up necessary workplace safety and hygiene practices. For economies struggling to control infection rates, a lengthier lockdown will inflict an additional toll on activity. Moreover, the forecast assumes that financial conditions—which have eased following the release of theApril 2020 WEO—will remain broadly at current levels. Alternative outcomes to those in the baseline are clearly possible, and not just because of how the pandemic is evolving. The extent of the recent rebound in financial market sentiment appears disconnected from shifts in underlying economic prospects—as the June 2020 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) Update discusses—raising the possibility that financial conditions may tighten more than assumed in the baseline.

All countries—including those that have seemingly passed peaks in infections—should ensure that their health care systems are adequately resourced. The international community must vastly step up its support of national initiatives, including through financial assistance to countries with limited health care capacity and channeling of funding for vaccine production as trials advance, so that adequate, affordable doses are quickly available to all countries. Where lockdowns are required, economic policy should continue to cushion household income losses with sizable, well-targeted measures as well as provide support to firms suffering the consequences of mandated restrictions on activity. Where economies are reopening, targeted support should be gradually unwound as the recovery gets underway, and policies should provide stimulus to lift demand and ease and incentivize the reallocation of resources away from sectors likely to emerge persistently smaller after the pandemic.

Strong multilateral cooperation remains essential on multiple fronts. Liquidity assistance is urgently needed for countries confronting health crises and external funding shortfalls, including through debt relief and financing through the global financial safety net. Beyond the pandemic, policymakers must cooperate to resolve trade and technology tensions that endanger an eventual recovery from the COVID-19 crisis. Furthermore, building on the record drop in greenhouse gas emissions during the pandemic, policymakers should both implement their climate change mitigation commitments and work together to scale up equitably designed carbon taxation or equivalent schemes. The global community must act now to avoid a repeat of this catastrophe by building global stockpiles of essential supplies and protective equipment, funding research and supporting public health systems, and putting in place effective modalities for delivering relief to the neediest.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Stati Uniti

USA. La Camera di Commercio prega la Cina di aumentare l’import.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-06-24.

Gufo_019__

«The U.S. Chamber of Commerce on Thursday underscored the importance of functional U.S.-China ties and urged Beijing to step up its purchases of U.S. goods and services»

«The Chamber said the pandemic had clearly slowed progress for both governments, but there were reasons to be hopeful»

«it will be critical for the pace of implementation of purchases to accelerate markedly»

«Tensions between the two countries have spiked in recent months, sparking questions about the future of the trade deal, under which China agreed to buy $200 billion more in U.S. goods and services over two years»

«China threatened retaliation after U.S. President Donald Trump signed legislation on Wednesday calling for sanctions over the repression of China’s Uighurs, a Muslim minority»

* * * * * * *

Trump announces unprecedented action against China.

«President Donald Trump launched a blistering attack on Beijing Friday, naming misdeeds that range from espionage to the violation of Hong Kong’s freedoms»

«Trump called out China for “espionage to steal our industrial secrets»

«The President also blasted Beijing for passing a national security law that fundamentally undermines Hong Kong’s autonomy»

«Trump announced the US will pull out of the World Health Organization even as the global coronavirus pandemic continues to claim lives, claiming that China has “total control” over the organization of 194 member states»

«Trump was widely expected to announce a restriction on Chinese students, about 350,000 of whom come to the US to study each year»

* * * * * * *

Germania. Merkel. Una personalità sdoppiata. Si scaglia contro la Cina e poi la supplica.

La farsa è recitata secondo il collaudato copione.

I governi occidentali si stanno scagliando contro la Cina: non la hanno accusata di pascolo abusiva e di aggiotaggio, ma poco ci manca. Non è qui materia di analizzare se a torto o ragione: si constata solo la presenza consistente di questa linea politica.

Nel converso, il sistema imprenditoriale occidentale è sempre più attratto dalla Cina, e quasi giornalmente di apprende come una qualche multinazionale abbia cercato nuovi sbocchi proprio in Cina: per loro è questione di sopravvivenza.

Cina mon amour. American Express sposta il suo baricentro in Cina.

Cina mon amour. Maggio. Ford aumenta le vendite in Cina +32%.

Exxon Mobil Corp e la Cina. Notizia non economica bensì politica.

Citiamo solo queste tre tra i molteplici esempi possibili.

Dovrebbe essere intuitivo constatare quanto le posizioni governative siano opposte a quelle industriali.

Esattamente come dovrebbe essere banale constatazione che i cinesi non siano ben disposti a riprendere gli usuali acquisti in occidente, almeno fino a tanto che le tensioni non si saranno acquietate.

*

U.S. Chamber urges China to accelerate purchases of U.S. goods.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce on Thursday underscored the importance of functional U.S.-China ties and urged Beijing to step up its purchases of U.S. goods and services as agreed under a Phase 1 trade deal despite delays caused by the coronavirus.

The Chamber said the pandemic had clearly slowed progress for both governments, but there were reasons to be hopeful. It also welcomed regular talks between the world’s two largest economies on implementation of purchases, intellectual property reforms and other issues covered by the trade deal.

“Implementation is critical. COVID-19 has unquestionably slowed progress for both governments, and it will be critical for the pace of implementation of purchases to accelerate markedly,” it said in a statement after a virtual meeting of top U.S. and Chinese business leaders on Wednesday.

The meeting, one of two convened each year by the Chamber and the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, a Beijing-based think tank, focused on the Phase 1 trade deal that took effect in February, and supply chain challenges.

Tensions between the two countries have spiked in recent months, sparking questions about the future of the trade deal, under which China agreed to buy $200 billion more in U.S. goods and services over two years.

China threatened retaliation after U.S. President Donald Trump signed legislation on Wednesday calling for sanctions over the repression of China’s Uighurs, a Muslim minority.

The Chamber said China’s 1.4 billion consumers represented the fastest growing market for U.S. companies, but U.S. firms also faced myriad challenges doing business with China.

Despite the challenges and the recent tensions, it said a functional relationship between the two countries was “in the fundamental interests of Americans, and of peace and stability in the world.”

Pubblicato in: Cina, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Europa. Maggio. Immatricolazioni auto -58.6% anno su anno. Cina auto +1.9%, commerciali +48%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-06-21.

2020-06-17__Immatricolazioni auto 013

«A maggio in Europa (Ue+Gb+Efta) le vendite di nuove auto sono scese del 58,6% rispetto allo stesso mese del 2019, attestandosi a 623.812 unità.» [Fonte]

Come evidenziano gli storici riportati per Italia e Germania, la contrazione delle immatricolazioni sussisteva anche prima del lockdown indotto dalla pandemia di coronavirus, segno che questo ultimo ha solo slatentizzato una sofferenza politica e strutturale strutturale già in essere.

«Secondo i dati comunicati dalla China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), le vendite al dettaglio hanno superato le aspettative, evidenziando la ripresa del mercato delle auto. Le immatricolazioni registrate a maggio sono tornate a crescere dell’1,9% rispetto allo stesso mese del 2019.» [Fonte]

Cina. Maggio. Produzione e vendita veicoli commerciali +48% YoY.

* * * * * * *

Questi macrodati illustrano meglio di tante parole le reali differenze tra i sistemi politici ed economici europei e quello cinese. Stesso lockdown, diversi i governi.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Unione Europea

Produzione Industriale Annuale. Cina +4.4%, Eurozona -28.0%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-06-20.

2020-06-20__Cina PI 013

Le comparazioni hanno sempre in sé un qualcosa di urtante per quanti non riescano a sostenere il confronto. Pur tuttavia hanno una loro intrinseca validità, in quanto mettono in evidenza situazioni che richiederebbe una particolare cura per essere rimesse in sesto.

Sia il blocco europeo sia la Cina hanno subito una severa crisi indotta dall’epidemia da coronavirus, situazione dalla quale sembrerebbero iniziare ad emergere dopo periodi più o meno lunghi di lockdown. Sicuramente lo sfasamento dei picchi epidemici potrebbe ancora influire, ma non per quote rilevanti in questa fase di calo consistente dei contagi.

La produzione industriale cinese rilasciata il 15 giugno si attestava al +4.4%, mentre quella per il blocco europeo, rilasciata il 12 giugno, era -28.0%.

La differenza è significativa ed evidente.

Il problema non è tanto il Covid-19, quanto l’assetto politico, economico, giuridico e strutturale che caratterizza ciascuna delle zone prese in considerazione.

Non a caso si sta assistendo ad una vera e propria fuga delle industrie del blocco europeo verso la Cina.

* * * * * * *

Bmw taglierà 6mila posti di lavoro (prepensionamenti) nel 2020

Cina non amour. Maggio. Mercedes-Benz vendite in crescita a due cifre.

Cina. I grandi Atenei inglesi stanno trasferendosi in Cina.

Cina. Maggio. Export -3.3% anno su anno, Import -16.7%.

Cina mon amour. Maggio. Ford aumenta le vendite in Cina +32%.

Cina. Anche Volkswagen vi programma grandi investimenti.

Cina ed Hong Kong. I media occidentali hanno cambiato registro.

Cina e Red Bull Gmbh. Un mercato impossibile da trascurare.

Cina. Multinazionali aprono in continuazione stabilimenti. – Nestlé.

Cina. Aprile. Produzione Industriale Annualizzata +3.9%.

Daimler, Mercedes Benz, ha ripreso la produzione in Cina.

Exxon Mobil Corp e la Cina. Notizia non economica bensì politica.

Cina mon amour. Maggio. Prada +10%.

Cina. Maxipetroliere in rada in attesa di scaricare. La ripresa corre veloce.

* * * * * * *

Questi due semplici macrodati e la loro differenza dovrebbero indurre consistenti ripensamenti sulla portata di quanto accade.

In particolare, iniettare liquidità in un sistema incapace di produrre senza intervenire sui fattori di blocco è cosa perfettamente inutile, per non dire dannosa.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Problemia Energetici

Cina. Giugno. Produzione energia elettrica + 9.1% anno su anno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-06-20.

Pechino-Città-Proibita-da-Piazza-Tiananmen

«The country’s power generation climbed by 9.1 percent year on year in early June»

«China’s electricity generation is rising at a faster pace after a significant increase in May, buoyed by growing demand»

« a hike in power generation shows the country’s economic and social activities are returning to normal at an accelerated pace»

«Electricity consumption in the city of Xuzhou in Jiangsu Province jumped by 15.4 percent year on year in early June»

* * * * * * *

La ripresa del sistema economico produttivo cinese continua molto più velocemente ed intensamente di quanto fosse stato prima prevedibile.

L’unico ostacolo che si potrebbe vedere all’orizzonte potrebbe essere una ripresa del processo pandemico.

*


China’s power generation grows faster in June.

China’s electricity generation is rising at a faster pace after a significant increase in May, buoyed by growing demand, the State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC) said on Wednesday.

“As a bellwether of China’s economy, a hike in power generation shows the country’s economic and social activities are returning to normal at an accelerated pace,” said Shan Baoguo, deputy chief economist with the State Grid Energy Research Institute.

Most parts of China have seen higher temperatures since June, which also contributed to the increase, Shan added.

In east China’s Jiangsu Province, electricity consumed by the information technology and software industries continued to grow rapidly, while mining, food processing, and equipment manufacturing sectors also reported rapid increases in power consumption.

The gradual industrial recovery and the summer harvest explained part of the recent increases, said Wang Yiqing with the Xuzhou branch of SGCC.

Electricity consumption in the city of Xuzhou in Jiangsu Province jumped by 15.4 percent year on year in early June. Xuzhou Construction Machinery Group, a leading engineering machinery manufacturer, saw its power consumption up by almost 30 percent during the period, according to Wang.

China’s key economic indicators are expected to continue to improve with a slew of measures to unleash domestic demand and stabilize business operations coming into effect, Shan noted.

The country’s power generation climbed by 9.1 percent year on year in early June

Pubblicato in: Cina, Commercio, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

EU. Impone tariffe dal 30% al 99% sulle fibre ottiche egiziane e cinesi.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-06-20.

Commissione Europea 013

«The European Union imposed tariffs on Chinese producers of glass fibre fabric in China and Egypt after finding they had benefited from unfair subsidies that allowed them to sell at excessively low prices in Europe»

«The European Commission …. said in a report published on Monday that the companies had received preferential lending, artificially cheap land and electricity and various grants and tax breaks»

«The companies include two Egyptian subsidiaries of state-owned China National Building Materials Group Corp (CNBM), marking the EU’s first look into whether Chinese aid is unfairly helping Chinese companies based abroad»

«It normally only considers subsidies from the host government»

«Combined with related anti-dumping duties, the EU will apply tariffs of 30.0% to 99.7%, the higher rates applying to China-based companies and the lower rates to the operations in Egypt»

«The commission found the market share of the producers in China and Egypt rose to 31% in 2018 from 23% in 2015, while their average sales price fell by 14»

* * * * * * *

Non si vuole entrare nel merito della diatriba: si vorrebbe soltanto ricordare come il sistema economico del blocco europeo dipenda molto da buone relazioni intrattenute con la Cina, il solo mezzo per appianare le divergenze.

*


EU imposes tariffs on Chinese makers of glass fibre fabric in China and Egypt.

The European Union imposed tariffs on Chinese producers of glass fibre fabric in China and Egypt after finding they had benefited from unfair subsidies that allowed them to sell at excessively low prices in Europe.

The European Commission, which oversees trade policy in the 27 EU countries, said in a report published on Monday that the companies had received preferential lending, artificially cheap land and electricity and various grants and tax breaks.

The companies include two Egyptian subsidiaries of state-owned China National Building Materials Group Corp (CNBM) [CNMGC.UL], marking the EU’s first look into whether Chinese aid is unfairly helping Chinese companies based abroad. It normally only considers subsidies from the host government.

Combined with related anti-dumping duties, the EU will apply tariffs of 30.0% to 99.7%, the higher rates applying to China-based companies and the lower rates to the operations in Egypt, the EU official journal said. The tariffs are backdated to Jan. 22. The commission found the market share of the producers in China and Egypt rose to 31% in 2018 from 23% in 2015, while their average sales price fell by 14%.

Glass fibre fabrics have a wide range of applications, such as in wind turbine blades, boats, trucks and sports equipment.

EU producers include Belgium’s European Owens CorningFiberglas, France’s Chomarat Textiles Industries, Germany’sSaertex and Finland’s Ahlstrom-Munkzjo Glassfibre (AHM1.HE).

The commission is also looking into alleged unfair subsidies received by CNBM subsidiary Jushi in Egypt regarding glass fibre reinforcements. It set provisional duties of 8.7% in that case. Final findings are due in July.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Senza categoria

Cina. Prodotti cosmetici. Vendite straordinarie online.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-06-19.

Miss China Cina 013

«Michi confer, venditor, species emendas

Pro multa pecunia tibi iam reddenda,

Si quid habes insuper odoramentorum;

Nam volo perungere corpus hoc decorum.»


«Chinese Cosmetic Brands See Rally Despite Global Beauty Downturn»

«Online marketing, cheaper prices help prop up earnings»

«the global cosmetics industry has been dealt a major blow by the coronavirus pandemic»

«Yet low-cost, online-savvy local beauty brands in China have seen their shares rally as investors spy an opportunity for the home-grown outfits to take market share amid the crisis»

«Hangzhou-based Proya Cosmetics Co. has soared 88% this year, reaching a record high in May and is now trading at 68 times forward earnings, the highest among listed beauty companies worldwide and surpassing giants like Shiseido Co. and Estee Lauder Cos.»

«Another local make-up brand, Guangdong Marubi Biotechnology Co. has surged 42% this year against a 3.9% decline in the Shanghai Composite Index and is now trading at 58.7 times forward earnings»

«Domestic brands like Proya have a very fast online growth rate, …. International high-end brands hold more market share offline, which makes their business suffer more during the pandemic»

«In the first three months of the year, Shiseido saw a net income decline of 96% to 1.4 billion yen ($12.8 million) while Estee Lauder made a net loss of $6 million compared to net earnings of $555 million in the same period a year ago.»

«Proya’s full-year profit is expected to rise 25% and Marubi 14%»

«Market size is projected to double this year from $60 billion last year, according to iiMedia Research.»

«Chinese domestic brands are becoming more acceptable to young consumers»

* * * * * * *

Le femmine hanno quella meravigliosa caratteristica di aver un ché di bertucciesco. Essere cocorita è un must per ogni donna, sotto ogni luna.

Figurarsi poi se avrebbe potuto resistere ad un lockdown senza cosmetici per farsi bella.

Non abbiamo elementi per avanzare una previsione su quanto questo fenomeno delle vendite online di cosmetici a basso costo possa perdurare nel tempo, ma come inizio è più che buono.

*


Bloomberg. Chinese Cosmetic Brands See Rally Despite Global Beauty Downturn.

– Online marketing, cheaper prices help prop up earnings

– Proya trading at highest value among global beauty companies

*

With consumers staying at home for months and social gatherings banned, the global cosmetics industry has been dealt a major blow by the coronavirus pandemic.

Yet low-cost, online-savvy local beauty brands in China have seen their shares rally as investors spy an opportunity for the home-grown outfits to take market share amid the crisis.

Hangzhou-based Proya Cosmetics Co. has soared 88% this year, reaching a record high in May and is now trading at 68 times forward earnings, the highest among listed beauty companies worldwide and surpassing giants like Shiseido Co. and Estee Lauder Cos.

Another local make-up brand, Guangdong Marubi Biotechnology Co. has surged 42% this year against a 3.9% decline in the Shanghai Composite Index and is now trading at 58.7 times forward earnings.

The bull runs come as the local brands’ cheaper products and online-focused sales and marketing platforms seemingly suit a Covid-19 reality in which consumers have less purchasing power and avoid going to public places to shop.

“Domestic brands like Proya have a very fast online growth rate,” said Dai Ming, fund manager with Shanghai-based Hengsheng Asset Management. “International high-end brands hold more market share offline, which makes their business suffer more during the pandemic.”

In the first three months of the year, Shiseido saw a net income decline of 96% to 1.4 billion yen ($12.8 million) while Estee Lauder made a net loss of $6 million compared to net earnings of $555 million in the same period a year ago. In contrast, Proya’s net income for the same period fell just 15% to 77.7 million yuan ($11 million), while Guangdong Marubi fell only 1% to 118.8 million yuan.

Analysts estimates compiled by Bloomberg show that Proya’s full-year profit is expected to rise 25% and Marubi 14%, while Shiseido and Estee Lauder are expected to post declines and L’Oreal SA to show a slight gain.

Investor Darling

The local Chinese brands have displayed a greater mastery of platforms popular with younger consumers, like live-streaming e-commerce, in which influencers demonstrate and tout items in a broadcast to fans who can purchase them in real time.

The intense, non-stop medium thrives on strategies to boost sales like limited edition items, restricted windows to purchase and celebrity tie-ups.

The industry, already massive in China, is set to grow in a post-pandemic future where more people shop from home given fears of becoming infected in public places. Market size is projected to double this year from $60 billion last year, according to iiMedia Research.

Proya works with top influencers to push its goods on platforms from Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s Taobao and Tmall to Bytedance Inc.’s Tiktok and has an endorsement contract with Chinese singer Cai Xukun, who has 30.4 million followers on Chinese social media platform Weibo.

“I bought Proya’s Elastic Brightening Youth Essence the day I learned of Kun’s endorsement,” said Ian Sun, a 21-year-old university student and fan of the singer. “Then I ordered the second one the next day when Proya launched a special package through Tmall that came with a souvenir of him.” The package included a thermos cup, a necklace and a mirror with the singer’s image.

Each bottle of essence also only cost 219 yuan, an affordable purchase for Sun compared to items from the other brand Cai endorses — French luxury house Givenchy.

Proya has been shifting its business online even before the pandemic: e-commerce revenue accounted for 53% of its business in 2019, up from 44% in 2018, according to its annual report.

Long-Term Prospects

Some analysts say that Proya and Marubi’s gains have been excessive due to investors’ desire for bright spots during the global crisis that’s sickened more than 6.5 million people and killed over 390,000. Both companies are still minnows in market value compared to global beauty brands.

“Chinese consumer stocks are now extremely over-valued and a company trading at a value like Proya should be avoided,” said Yang Ruyi, executive director of Chunshi Capital.

It’s also unclear if their short-term success will translate into long-term share gain in the 478 billion yuan Chinese beauty and personal care market. As of 2019, L’Oreal leads in both skincare and color cosmetics in China, while Proya ranks only 15th and 38th respectively, according to data from Euromonitor International.

And as consumers regain confidence and see incomes grow again after the pandemic passes, the pre-crisis trend of consumers upgrading to premium, higher-quality products sold by foreign brands may return.

Still, as shoppers stay home for now and remain cautious with spending, local beauty brands are trying to seize the moment to woo local consumers who’ve always preferred foreign brands in categories from sports apparel to luxury goods.

“Chinese domestic brands are becoming more acceptable to young consumers,” said Chen Wen, consumer analyst at Wanlian Securities. “The share price reflects the market confidence in a company relatively unaffected by the pandemic and with a consistent performance.”

Pubblicato in: Cina, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Cina non amour. Maggio. Mercedes-Benz vendite in crescita a due cifre.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-06-18.

2020-06-16__Cina Commerci 013

La Cina sta evidenziando una ripresa davvero sorprendente, specie poi se fosse paragonata alla situazione del blocco europeo. È una situazione economica e strutturale che richiama le grandi industrie occidentali.

Nel contempo, sarebbe utile cercare di comprendere come abbiano potuto farlo.

Cina. I grandi Atenei inglesi stanno trasferendosi in Cina.

Cina. Maggio. Export -3.3% anno su anno, Import -16.7%.

Cina mon amour. Maggio. Ford aumenta le vendite in Cina +32%.

Cina. Anche Volkswagen vi programma grandi investimenti.

Cina ed Hong Kong. I media occidentali hanno cambiato registro.

Cina e Red Bull Gmbh. Un mercato impossibile da trascurare.

Cina. Multinazionali aprono in continuazione stabilimenti. – Nestlé.

Cina. Aprile. Produzione Industriale Annualizzata +3.9%.

Daimler, Mercedes Benz, ha ripreso la produzione in Cina.

Exxon Mobil Corp e la Cina. Notizia non economica bensì politica.

Cina mon amour. Maggio. Prada +10%.

Cina. Maxipetroliere in rada in attesa di scaricare. La ripresa corre veloce.

* * * * * * *

«BAIC Motor Corp. and Daimler AG plan to build a new factory in China for Mercedes-Benz vehicles to meet growing demand as the German automaker deepens its ties with the country. The automakers will co-invest more than 11.9 billion yuan (US$1.9 billion) to build the facility»

«Li Shufu, the billionaire founder of Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co., said he had acquired a stake worth about 7.3 billion euros ($9 billion) in Daimler, marking the biggest investment in a global automobile manufacturer by a Chinese company. The 9.7% stake makes Geely the single largest investor in the parent of Mercedes-Benz»

«Mercedes-Benz manufacturer Daimler has seen business stabilise in China after the country ended coronavirus lockdowns, a senior manager at the German car manufacturer told a newspaper on Sunday (Apr 26).»

«In China alone, we sold around 50,000 vehicles again in March»

«China, who bought 694,200 Mercedes-Benz cars last year, 29 per cent of total sales»

«After a strong start to the year, Daimler said demand was hit by the spread of the coronavirus and sales of new Mercedes-Benz brand cars fell to 477,378 vehicles, down 15% from the previous year»

«Mercedes-Benz sold more than 70,000 passenger cars in May and achieved a double-digit growth in China, German carmaker Daimler announced on Tuesday»

«Last week, the German carmaker announced that global deliveries to car dealers in May were down 28.6 percent compared with the same month last year, with almost 135,000 passenger cars of the Mercedes-Benz brand sold worldwide»

* * * * * * *

Sintetizziamo.

– Mercedes-Benz ha venduto in Cina il 28.6% delle 135,000 automobili prodotte nel mondo.

– Ha prodotto e venduto 50,000 autovetture in marzo e 70,000 a maggio.

– Il 9.7% delle azioni sono in possesso dei cinesi.

*

Se questo trend dovesse proseguire, alla fine Mercedes-Benz avrebbe il grosso della produzione e delle vendite in Cina.

*


Daimler says China business picks up again.

«Mercedes-Benz manufacturer Daimler has seen business stabilise in China after the country ended coronavirus lockdowns, a senior manager at the German car manufacturer told a newspaper on Sunday (Apr 26).

“In China alone, we sold around 50,000 vehicles again in March. That makes us confident,”, said Markus Schaefer, managing board member for production, told Bild am Sonntag newspaper.

Mercedes-Benz delivered a total of approximately 477,400 passenger cars worldwide between January and March. The report did not say how many of those went to customers in China, who bought 694,200 Mercedes-Benz cars last year, 29 per cent of total sales.

Starting on Monday, cars are set to roll off Daimler’s assembly line again in Germany. The Sindelfingen and Bremen passenger-car plants will start production of E- and S-Class vehicles.

China is the largest market for the S-Class built in Sindelfingen. Normally several hundred vehicles roll off the assembly line in Sindelfingen every day.»

*


Daimler sees increase in demand in China.

«Daimler AG said Wednesday that sales of its flagship Mercedes-Benz cars plunged in the first three months of the year, as factories shut down in the wake of the coronavirus, but added that it saw signs of recovery in China.

“In China and South Korea, our dealerships are fully open and we see a significant increase in demand there. That gives us confidence,” Britta Seeger, the company’s sales chief, said in a statement.

After a strong start to the year, Daimler said demand was hit by the spread of the coronavirus and sales of new Mercedes-Benz brand cars fell to 477,378 vehicles, down 15% from the previous year. Sales in China were down 20%, while sales in Europe and the U.S. fell 16% and 5% respectively.

The sharp decline in sales comes in the wake of temporary factory closures in China, Europe and the U.S. in an effort to contain the spread of the coronavirus pandemic.»

*


BAIC and Daimler to Build $1.9 Billion China Production Plant.

«BAIC Motor Corp. and Daimler AG plan to build a new factory in China for Mercedes-Benz vehicles to meet growing demand as the German automaker deepens its ties with the country.

The automakers will co-invest more than 11.9 billion yuan (US$1.9 billion) to build the facility, BAIC said Sunday in a brief filing to the Hong Kong stock exchange. The statement didn’t disclose the location of the production base.

“The new factory will manufacture various Mercedes-Benz products in China including new energy electric vehicles” and improve the overall production capacity of the companies’ joint venture, Beijing Benz Automotive Co., the statement said.

The announcement comes a day after Li Shufu, the billionaire founder of Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co., said he had acquired a stake worth about 7.3 billion euros ($9 billion) in Daimler, marking the biggest investment in a global automobile manufacturer by a Chinese company. The 9.7% stake makes Geely the single largest investor in the parent of Mercedes-Benz.»

*


Mercedes-Benz returns to double-digit growth in China.

«Mercedes-Benz sold more than 70,000 passenger cars in May and achieved a double-digit growth in China, German carmaker Daimler announced on Tuesday.

“The retail sales in our biggest market China provide us with optimism,” said Britta Seeger, member of the board of management of Daimler and Mercedes Benz, responsible for sales and marketing.

Daimler’s core brand would get “step by step back to normality.” After a production suspension caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, Mercedes-Benz car plants had successfully restarted production.

From June onwards, all Mercedes-Benz plants worldwide would be gradually restarted, according to Daimler.

Last week, the German carmaker announced that global deliveries to car dealers in May were down 28.6 percent compared with the same month last year, with almost 135,000 passenger cars of the Mercedes-Benz brand sold worldwide»