Pubblicato in: Cina, Devoluzione socialismo, Senza categoria, Unione Europea

Spagna. Catalogna. Problema non locale ma mondiale, ed anche cinese.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-11-06.

gatto Incazzato 01

La situazione spagnola si è risolta come da copione.

Un referendum velleitario portato avanti da velleitari.

Una cosa è organizzare manifestazioni di piazza, un’altra pubblicare vignette su Facebook, un’altra ancora fomentare sentimenti irrazionali: in fondo questo è uno dei segni del decadimento di questa società dei videogiochi.

La libertà, quella vera, la si conquista con il sangue e sempre con il sangue la si mantiene.

La storia non usa mezze misure: la storia non è agone per gli eunuchi.

Restano sul tavolino, irrisolti, tutti i problemi di una Europa nella quale gli spiriti nazionali e le tradizioni locoregionali stanno pigliando sempre più vigore e pongono il problema politico e diplomatico di come ricomporre la civile convivenza.

Problemi che sembrerebbero suggerire più un sistema confederato che un stato europeo.

Ma non ci si illuda.

Proprio ieri, quarantamila baschi sono scesi in strada, nonostante la pioggia battente, a dimostrare per la Catalogna.

Thousands of Basque protesters take sides in Catalonia dispute

Catalogna oppure Scozia, Veneto oppure kurdi, questi problemi di identità nazionale e storica sono aspetti reali e concreti, che i governi non possono eludere più a lungo. Nel contempo sono solo parzialmente locali: in realtà sono di interesse globale. Occorre essere ben equilibrati.

Come l’unità di Italia non fu certo decisa a Torino, bensì a Parigi ed a Londra, allora egemoni in Europa, così ogi per la Catalogna è stato fattore fondamentale la voce del paese emerso verso l’egemonia mondiale.

«Catalonia attracted 40 percent of China’s total investment in Spain as 29 Chinese companies chose to base themselves in Catalonia»

*

«China’s position on this issue has been consistent and unequivocal…We understand and support the Spanish government’s effort to uphold national unity, ethnic solidarity, and territorial integrity, oppose the act of splitting the country and undermining the rule of law, and believe Spain is capable of upholding the social order and safeguarding the rights and interests of its citizens»

*

«La Cosco, azienda leader del settore navale cinese e perno della Nuova Via della Seta nel mar Mediterraneo, porta a termine l’acquisizione dei maggiori porti spagnoli da JP Morgan e nomina il cinese Kai Sun, già noto per aver gestito l’acquisizione del Pireo, come amministratore delegato del consorzio Noatum Ports. Insieme a lui è stato nominato come presidente di Noatum sempre il cinese Wei Zhang e nel c.d.A. arriva anche un altro cinese, Ken Chan. Una triade cinese che oggi sa di avere in mano una buona parte del commercio navale spagnolo»

*

Piaccia o meno, questa è solo una constatazione di Realpolitik.


The Diplomat. 2017-11-01. China Backs Spanish Government Amid Catalonia Crisis

Amid the escalating Catalonia crisis, China offered the Spanish government its “consistent and clear” support.

On October 27, Catalonia declared independence from Spain after a disputed referendum. Minutes later, Madrid announced it would resume direct rule of Catalonia.  On October 30, Spain’s state prosecutor called for charges of rebellion, sedition, fraud, and misuse of funds against the former Catalan leaders, while the former regional president has already left for Belgium with other members of his administration, according to Reuters.

Faced with a round of questions related to the Catalonia crisis at the regular press briefing, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chuying offered the Spanish government strong support, despite noting that the issue actually “ falls within Spain’s internal affairs.” Hua said:

«China’s position on this issue has been consistent and unequivocal…We understand and support the Spanish government’s effort to uphold national unity, ethnic solidarity, and territorial integrity, oppose the act of splitting the country and undermining the rule of law, and believe Spain is capable of upholding the social order and safeguarding the rights and interests of its citizens.»

Regarding relations between China and Spain, Hua said, “We will continue to develop friendly cooperation in various fields with Spain following the principle of mutual respect for each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and mutual non-interference in each other’s internal affairs. ”

Generally speaking, China tends to oppose most independence or secessionist movements around the world, since China itself is struggling with advocacy for independence in various regions.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has taken a particularly strong stance toward any independent movements within China’s territory. During the recent 19th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, Xi said in his opening speech that China will “resolutely safeguard the national sovereignty and territorial integrity and will absolutely not tolerate the tragedy of the country’s split.”

Against this backdrop, China’s position on Catalonia crisis is in line with its domestic policy.

Meanwhile, China has been strengthening ties with Spain in recent years. Particularly, Chinese investment in Spain has been increasing in a remarkable pace. According to a report from Baker McKenzie, a multinational law firm, in 2016, China’s investment in Spain quadrupled compared to the previous year, reaching €1.7 billion ($1.98 billion). Catalonia, in particular, received the most attention from Chinese investors. According to the government of Catalonia, in 2015, Catalonia attracted 40 percent of China’s total investment in Spain as 29 Chinese companies chose to base themselves in Catalonia.  The government of Catalonia also said it “aims to attract Chinese and other Asian companies and facilitate the implementation and distribution of their goods in Europe.”

At the recent press briefing, Hua mentioned that China is  “paying great attention” to the situation in Catalonia.

Annunci
Pubblicato in: Cina, Finanza e Sistema Bancario

Banche di Hong Kong. Negli ultimi cinque anni il +14% all’anno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-11-01.

2017-10-31__Cina__Bank of China (Hong Kong) Ltd.

Bank of China (Hong Kong) Ltd


La regola aurea per diventare, e rimanere, ricchi è quella di evitare i suggerimenti dei consulenti economici e finanziari poveri.

Sarebbe una pia illusione che un funzionario a 1,400 euro al mese possa dare i suggerimenti necessari all’arricchimento. Se avesse saputo darli, sarebbe divento lui stesso ricco.

Una banca taccagna e piangiolenta, tutta tesa ad ossequiare leggi, normative e regolamenti è tale perché non sa proprio come fare a regolarsi. Si dovrebbe poi pretendere che usi buon senso con i clienti?

Oppure, come si potrebbe pretendere che una banca con i conti in dissesto possa rendere fiorenti i nostri conti?

*

Ma il mondo è diventato piccolo, molto piccolo.  Hong Kong è una simpaticissima città: vi si trova tutto e di tutto. Ivi comprese delle signore banche.

Che godono un’ottima salute, accolgono a braccia aperte e, soprattutto, stanno pazientemente a sentire le esigenze dei clienti, che seguono con la cura di una nutrice. Non taglieggiano i clienti con commissioni esose, e ben si guardano da cambiare unilateralmente le condizioni del conto.

Non esiste esigenza alla quale rispondano: non è possibile. E questo anche per chi avesse un conto talmente piccolo da fare tenerezza. Sanno che è compito loro farlo diventare un conto di tutto rispetto.

Come risultato, guadagnano e fanno guadagnare.

Hong Kong retail banks’ profits up 4.5 per cent in first three quarters

Banks are closing branches all over the world, but why not in Hong Kong?

L’ HSBC Group aveva nel 2016 una revenue di 47.96 miliardi Usd

Bank of China (Hong Kong) Ltd. Financial Highlights.

«Tight cost control along with better asset quality has allowed Hong Kong’s biggest banks to offer shareholders the highest returns in the region»

*

«The large banks in Hong Kong are some of the most profitable in the world»

*

«In this regard, HSBC Hong Kong, Bank of China Hong Kong and Hang Seng Bank have performed much better than Standard Chartered and Bank of East Asia»

*

«Morgan Stanley analysts calculated that Hong Kong banks’ have offered returns with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 14 per cent over the past five years, the strongest performance among all the Asia Pacific ex Japan MSCI country bank indices for the period»

* * * * * * * *

Riassumendo.

Negli ultimi cinque anni le banche di Hong Kong hanno fruttato mediamente il 14% ogni anno.

È un biglietto da visita degno di essere preso in attenta considerazione.


South China Morning Post. 2017-10-29. Hong Kong banks among world’s most profitable thanks to low costs, better asset quality

Tight cost control along with better asset quality has allowed Hong Kong’s biggest banks to offer shareholders the highest returns in the region.

*

The large banks in Hong Kong are some of the most profitable in the world, partly due to their low costs, according to industry experts.

Banking analysts say this is partly a result of market fundamentals, but also comes down to cost control decisions taken by the banks themselves. In this regard, HSBC Hong Kong, Bank of China Hong Kong and Hang Seng Bank have performed much better than Standard Chartered and Bank of East Asia.

Other factors driving the sector’s profitability include high loan growth and few substantial problems with asset quality.

Morgan Stanley analysts calculated that Hong Kong banks’ have offered returns with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 14 per cent over the past five years, the strongest performance among all the Asia Pacific ex Japan MSCI country bank indices for the period.

Their performance can also be seen in Hong Kong’s contribution to the results of the large global banks with a presence in the city.

HSBC Group as a whole made pre tax profits of US$10.2 billion in the first half of this year; HSBC in Hong Kong alone made nearly half that figure – US$4.6 billion.

Standard Chartered announced first half pre tax profits of US1.91 billion at a group level; Standard Chartered Bank Hong Kong made just over a third of that – US$662 million.

“[This] offers a reminder of the dominance of Hong Kong, despite the fact that Standard Chartered’s recent growth in Hong Kong has been ‘soft’ relative to peers,” Ian Gordon, head of bank research at Investec, said in a report.

Anil Agarwal, head of Asia ex Japan banks research at Morgan Stanley, said profitability of the largest banks in Hong Kong was “partly the nature of the beast”.

“For banks the largest cost is on the liability side, actually raising the assets to lend. But in Hong Kong, if you have consolidated market share, you need a lot fewer branches to raise a deposit base,” he said.

In Hong Kong, deposits per capita are over US$200,000, the highest in Asia. To take an example at the opposite end of the spectrum, in India they are 80,000 rupees (US$1,200).

Consequently, large banks in Hong Kong can raise a lot of money more cheaply than their competitors overseas, and gain greater returns when they lend it out.

However, Agarwal said the low cost base of the largest Hong Kong banks was also a result of actions taken by the banks themselves.

Morgan Stanley analysts, including Agarwal, said in a report that of the top five banks in Hong Kong, the three largest (HSBC Hong Kong, Bank of China Hong Kong and Hang Seng) were much more efficient from a cost perspective than the other two (Standard Chartered and Bank of East Asia).

The first three had a cost to income ratio of under 40 per cent in 2016, as opposed to one of about 60 per cent for BEA and Standard Chartered.

BEA is in the middle of a three year cost cutting programme, although Standard Chartered says it has completed its attempts to cut costs.

“The three largest banks are absolutely great in terms of cost control,” said Agarwal.

“It is easy for banks to fritter away cost advantage by spending more on staff costs or expansion, but the largest Hong Kong banks have been very disciplined in keeping a tight leash on cost income ratios.”

As for profits, loan growth has been strong in Hong Kong, and across the sector loans in the first six months of this year were up 15 per cent compared to the same period last year.

One reason for this was policies on the mainland. Deleveraging means that mainland banks are less willing to lend to corporates, who instead look to Hong Kong banks. Yue Yi, chief executive of Bank of China Hong Kong, said in June that capital controls on the mainland had driven more Chinese corporates to borrow in Hong Kong.

However, even loans for use in Hong Kong were up 14 per cent year on year, as the economy has performed well.

As for asset quality, analysts have two major concerns for Hong Kong banks – mainland lending, and mortgages – but neither offer a major threat at this stage.

“China-related lending, undoubtedly, will remain the biggest concentration risk for Hong Kong banks. However, the way it is managed and supervised is evolving and we have been seeing corrective actions from some banks or in other cases just a sensible slow-down which supports their loan quality,” said Sabine Bauer, senior director at ratings agency Fitch.

As for property, this is a concern but residential mortgages made up just 5 per cent of the banking systems assets at the end of 2016, and since then the HKMA has taken repeated action to limit banks’ exposure to the property sector.



Bank of China (Hong Kong) Ltd.
Tel.: +852-2826-6888
Fax: +852-2810-5830
Sito Web

Bank of Communications Co., Ltd. – Hong Kong Branch
Tel.: +852-2239-5559
Sito Web

China CITIC Bank International Ltd.
Tel.: +852-2287-6767
Sito Web

China Construction Bank (Asia) Corporation Ltd.
Tel.: +852-2779-5533
Fax: +852-3718-3273
Sito Web

Chiyu Banking Corporation Ltd.
Tel.: +852-2843-0111
Fax: +852-2810-4207
E-mail: chiyu@chiyubank.com
Sito Web

Chong Hing Bank Ltd.
Tel.: +852-3768-6888
E-mail: customerservice@chbank.com
Sito Web

Citibank (Hong Kong) Ltd.
Tel.: +852-2860-0333
Fax: +852-3009-2883
Sito Web

Dah Sing Bank Ltd.
Tel.: +852-2828-8168
Sito Web

DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Ltd.
Tel.: +852-2290-8888
Sito Web

Fubon Bank (Hong Kong) Ltd.
Tel.: +852-2842-6222
Fax: +852-2810-1483
E-mail: cs.inquiry.fbhk@fubon.com
Sito Web

Hang Seng Bank Ltd.
Tel.: +852-2822-0228
Fax: +852-3409-1235
Sito Web

HSBC – The Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Ltd.
Tel.: +852-2233-3000
Sito Web

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (Asia) Ltd.
Tel.: +852-2189-5588
Fax: +852-2758-1340
Sito Web

Nanyang Commercial Bank Ltd.
Tel.: +852-2622-2633
E-mail: nanyang@ncb.com.hk
Sito Web

OCBC Wing Hang Bank Ltd.
Tel.: +852-2815-1123
Fax: +852-2541-7459
Sito Web

Public Bank (Hong Kong) Ltd.
Tel.: +852-8107-0818
E-mail: contact@publicbank.com.hk
Sito Web

Shanghai Commercial Bank Ltd.
Tel.: +852-2818-0282
Sito Web

Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong) Ltd.
Tel.: +852-2886-8868
Fax: +852-2535-4282
Sito Web

Tai Sang Bank Ltd.
Tel.: +852-2544-5011
Fax: +852-2545-5242
Sito Web

Tai Yau Bank Ltd.
Tel.: +852-2522-9002
Fax: +852-2522-3296
Sito Web

The Bank of East Asia Ltd.
Tel.: +852-2211-1333
Sito Web

Wing Lung Bank Ltd.
Tel.: +852-2309-5555
Fax: +852-2530-5798
Sito Web

Pubblicato in: Criminalità Organizzata

Racket delle ong. Questo è il titolo del Gatestone Institute.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-09-15.

Mafia 011

«Italy has received almost 100,000 people so far this year»

*

«This summer, even more than in previous years, it has become plain that some of the NGOs working in the Mediterranean are acting as something more than intermediaries»

*

«Many have in fact been acting as facilitators. This makes the NGOs effectively no more than the benign face of the smuggling networks»

*

«Undercover workers have also discovered NGOs handing vessels back to the smugglers’ networks, effectively helping them to continue their criminal enterprise indefinitely»

*

«A group that which seeks to oppose Europe’s current self-destructive insane trajectory can now not even source independent financial support»

*

«Groups, however, that continue to push Europe along its current trajectory continue to get all the official support they need»

*

«In the difference in reaction to these two groups lies a significant part of the story of the ruin of a continent»

* * * * * * *

«Across the EU as a whole, a recent survey found that 76% of the European public think that the European Union’s handling of the whole crisis has been poor.»

*

«A significant amount of the “rescue” part of the migrant crisis (finding boats and transferring those onboard onto safe vessels or guiding their vessels into port) has been done by NGOs»

*

«Organisations such as Save the Children and Médecins sans Frontières have been invited to do this by European government agencies, and many of them receive significant levels of government funding as well as charitable giving from the public»

*

«It may easily be argued, of course, that pro-migration NGOs that are colluding with smuggling gangs and assisting them in their work are “likely to cause loss of life”, if not in the Mediterranean then in encouraging thousands of people to give their money to smuggling gangs and encouraging millions more to set out for a new life in a continent which is increasingly less likely to receive them with warmth»

* * * * * * *

Queste parole suonano come macigni.

«pro-migration NGOs that are colluding with smuggling gangs»

Nulla da stupirsi quindi che la società civile mondiale stia insorgendo contro il potere criminale delle ogn (ngo).

Ong. Tempi durissimi. India avvia inchiesta sulla Bloomberg Philanthropies.

«Following the enquiry, permits of about 8,875 NGOs have been revoked for a variety of reasons ranging from non-filing of returns or non-compliance with Foreign Contribution Regulation Act»

^ ^ ^

More Than 7,000 Foreign NGOs in China: Only 91 Registered So Far

Cina. Una nuova legge sulle Ong (Ngo).

«Many other foreign NGOs, especially those working in political sensitive areas like legal advocacy or political education, are left in legal limbo»

^ ^ ^

«The Russian “foreign agent” law, officially “On Amendments to Legislative Acts of the Russian Federation regarding the Regulation of the Activities of Non-profit Organisations Performing the Functions of a Foreign Agent”, is a law in Russia that requires non-profit organizations that receive foreign donations and engage in “political activity” to register and declare themselves as foreign agents.» [Fonte]

*

NGO Head First Russian Charged Under ‘Foreign Agent’ Law

* * * * * * *

Soros George. Uno stato negli stati. Ecco i suoi principali voivodati.

Nota Importante.

Una società civile ha il suo legale e legittimo governo, stabilito secondo tradizione, che quindi governa secondo le leggi proprie di quella società, di quella nazione, interpretando il sentimento popolare.

È del tutto mezognero che associazioni private, per di più sovvenzionate dall’estero, alle quali aderisce un misero manipolo di persone stipendiate, si arroghino il “diritto” di poter rappresentare la “società civile”, tutta la nazione.

Non rappresentano altro che gli interessi per i quali sono state costituite.


Gatestone Institute. 2017-09-04. New NGO Racket: Smuggling, Inc.

– Although the European Union successfully bribed Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan last year — inducing him to slow the flow of migrants heading through Turkey into Greece — Italy has received almost 100,000 people so far this year.

– This summer, even more than in previous years, it has become plain that some of the NGOs working in the Mediterranean are acting as something more than intermediaries. Many have in fact been acting as facilitators. This makes the NGOs effectively no more than the benign face of the smuggling networks. Undercover workers have also discovered NGOs handing vessels back to the smugglers’ networks, effectively helping them to continue their criminal enterprise indefinitely.

– A group that which seeks to oppose Europe’s current self-destructive insane trajectory can now not even source independent financial support. Groups, however, that continue to push Europe along its current trajectory continue to get all the official support they need. In the difference in reaction to these two groups lies a significant part of the story of the ruin of a continent.

*

Sometimes it is in the gap between things that the truth emerges.

In recent years Europe has been on the receiving end of one of the most significant migrant crises in history. In 2015, in just a single year, countries such as Germany and Sweden found themselves adding 2% to their respective populations. Although much of the public continue to labour under the misapprehension that those still coming are fleeing the Syrian civil war; in fact, the majority of those now entering Europe are from Africa, particularly from sub-Saharan Africa.

Although the European Union successfully bribed Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan last year — inducing him to slow the flow of migrants heading through Turkey into Greece — Italy has received almost 100,000 people so far this year. Spain — which had ducked much of the movement of recent years — now finds itself receiving thousands of people who are sometimes (as in this memorable footage from earlier this month) simply landing on the country’s beaches and running straight into the country. In doing so, they are not only breaking into Europe in a fashion that is illegal, but flouting all the asylum protocols, and other protocols, however inadequate, that are meant to exist.

In reaction to such events, the Spanish authorities have done something extraordinary. They have gone the way of the Italian authorities and made more efforts to intercept boats heading towards the country. Not in order to turn them around or block them, but in order to “rescue” them. In merely one day last week, the Spanish coastguards “rescued” 600 migrants. The purpose of the quotation marks around “rescue” is because its use in this context is highly contestable. Somebody may be rescued from a burning car, or rescued from a sinking boat. But if thousands of people intentionally head across narrow stretches of water, it can hardly be said that each and every one of them has been “rescued’.

What have they been rescued from? They may be rescued from war. Or they may be rescued from poverty. Or slightly less rosy economic prospects than someone born in Spain. Most of these people have simply been rescued from Africa or whatever their country of origin. This situation leads to the questions which European politicians even now refuse to address — which is whether Europe should indeed be “rescuing” anyone who ends up in a boat near Europe.

Whenever they are polled, the public in Europe consistently say that they want the migration to slow down or stop. This is a majority opinion in every European country. Across the EU as a whole, a recent survey found that 76% of the European public think that the European Union’s handling of the whole crisis has been poor. But it is in the gap between the treatment of two actors in this crisis that we can discern a terrible fact about the fate of Europe.

Throughout the crisis of recent years — and especially since the height of the crisis in 2015 — the official vessels operated by the European states have been joined by members of non-governmental organsations (NGOs), either on the vessels or running vessels of their own. A significant amount of the “rescue” part of the migrant crisis (finding boats and transferring those onboard onto safe vessels or guiding their vessels into port) has been done by NGOs. Organisations such as Save the Children and Médecins sans Frontières have been invited to do this by European government agencies, and many of them receive significant levels of government funding as well as charitable giving from the public.

Yet, this summer, even more than in previous years, it has become plain that some of the NGOs working in the Mediterranean are acting as something more than intermediaries. Many have in fact been acting as facilitators. Agents who have infiltrated the NGO groups have found collusion between the NGOs and the smugglers networks, including coordination with these brutal and mercenary organisations. Investigations have found NGOs to have been breaking their own agreed operating rules by coordinating locations to meet and pick up vessels sent out by the smugglers. This makes the NGOs effectively no more than the benign face of the smuggling networks. Undercover workers have also discovered NGOs handing vessels back to the smugglers’ networks, effectively helping them to continue their criminal enterprise indefinitely.

In frontline countries such as Italy, this unlawful activity has been causing growing public anger. Elsewhere in Europe, the notion that these NGOs are not entirely angelic in their operations is taking longer to sink in. But compare the reaction to them — in receipt as they continue to be of large quantities of public and governmental money — with a group that has a different view to that of the NGOs.

At the start of this summer, a group called “Defend Europe” raised money to hire and sail a ship off the coast of Italy. The ship aimed to deter migrants from crossing the Mediterranean. One activist was recorded saying, “We want to get a crew, equip a boat and set sail to the Mediterranean ocean to chase down the enemies of Europe.” Some of the other characters and rhetoric associated with this movement may be equally unsavoury. For some weeks, the “Defend Europe” vessel, with banners prominently displayed, has floated in the Mediterranean and told people in a variety of languages, “No Way. You will not make Europe home” and “Stop human trafficking.”

Now one may abhor this tactic, approve of it, or feel a whole range of emotions in between. The treatment of “Defend Europe’, however, compared to the pro-migration NGOs, is startling. In recent weeks, when the “Defend Europe” vessel had some minor technical problems, it caused undisguised glee in the Western media. The suggestion that a pro-migration NGO vessel might have to rescue it caused even more delight. Now the group has had its sources of funding withdrawn. Not that “Defend Europe” would ever have received government aid. Far from it. But this past week, the US-based crowd-funding website Patreon shut down the group’s profile page, making it impossible for them to raise funds through it. The ostensible cause was that Patreon believed the actions of “Defend Europe” were “likely to cause loss of life.”

It may easily be argued, of course, that pro-migration NGOs that are colluding with smuggling gangs and assisting them in their work are “likely to cause loss of life”, if not in the Mediterranean then in encouraging thousands of people to give their money to smuggling gangs and encouraging millions more to set out for a new life in a continent which is increasingly less likely to receive them with warmth. A group that seeks to oppose Europe’s current self-destructive trajectory can now not even source independent financial support. Groups, however, that continue to push Europe along its current trajectory continue to get all the official support they need. In the difference in reaction to these two groups lies a significant part of the story of the ruin of a continent.

Pubblicato in: Cina, India, Russia

‘Time for BRICS to assume a leadership role’

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-09-04.

2017-09-04__Cina__001

Il miglior commento al Summit di Xiamen sembrerebbe essere quello fatto dal Governo della China:

Time for BRICS to assume a leadership role

«For decades, resources have been monopolized by developed nations, leaving developing nations lacking infrastructure and social development.

Contributing more than half of global growth over the past ten years, the BRICS nations are finding their own solutions to address the governance disparity.

The bloc’s New Development Bank (NDB), which was launched in 2014 with a focus on infrastructure and sustainable development projects, stands as a good example of what a new kind of world governance would look like.

In contrast to the quota system of other international financial institutions based on the role of a certain member, members of the NDB have equal voting power, a distinctive feature of the bank.

China has put forward the “BRICS Plus” proposal this year by inviting the leaders of Egypt, Guinea, Mexico, Tajikistan and Thailand to attend the Dialogue of Emerging Markets and Developing Countries during the summit and engage in dialogue with the BRICS members.

This will allow the BRICS summit to be an effective platform for voicing the needs, demands and aspirations of both the developing and underdeveloped nations in the world, and enable the organization to play a more decisive role in global governance.»

*

«Xi will chair the Dialogue of Emerging Markets and Developing Countries on Sept. 5, which will be attended by the leaders from the five BRICS countries, as well as the leaders of Egypt, Mexico, Tajikistan, Guinea and Thailand.»

* * * * * * *

«Time for BRICS to assume a leadership role»

*

Da un punto di vista meramente economico, se si considera il pil per potere di acquisto, il mondo genera 108,036,500 milioni Usd, la Cina 17,617,300 (16.31%) e gli Stati Uniti 17,418,00 (16.12%). L’Eurozona rende conto di 11,249,482 (10.41%) ed il Gruppo dei G7 di 31.825,293 (29.46%). Però i Brics conteggiano un pil ppa di 32,379,625 Usd, ossia il 29.97% del pil ppa mondiale. I Brics valgono come i paesi del G7.

Di conseguenza, la voce dell’Occidente vale nel mondo al massimo per il 29.46%, ma quella degli Stati Uniti vale solo il 16.12% e quella dell’Eurozona uno scarno 10.41%.

*

Fatevi adesso un piccolo conto: quando valgono i Brics Plus?


China Org. 2017-09-04. Xi shares vision on BRICS new ‘golden decade’

Chinese President Xi Jinping has shared his vision for the BRICS cooperation which he believes will enter a second “golden decade” if the emerging-market countries work together to overcome the challenges of weak growth and threats to world peace.

Addressing the BRICS Business Forum in Xiamen on Sunday, with Brazilian President Michel Temer and South African President Jacob Zuma in audience, Xi said after ten years a fully-fledged BRICS cooperation framework is taking shape.

With Russia’s Vladimir Putin and India’s Narendra Modi joining in, the leaders of the world’s five major developing countries will chart way forward for the bloc at the ninth BRICS summit scheduled for Sept. 3-5.

Xi on Sunday refuted the assertion that BRICS is losing luster.

He said despite headwinds causing growth setbacks, the BRICS countries are “fully confident” about their growth potential and the future outlook.

Tangible Benefits

BRIC was first coined in 2001 to describe four emerging economies with fast growth and great potential. The concept turned into a formal cooperation framework in 2006. Four years later, South Africa joined. BRIC became BRICS.

Xi said the past decade has seen the BRICS countries making headway in pursuing common development. Their combined GDP grew 179 percent, trade increased 94 percent and urban population expanded 28 percent during the period.

The development of the BRICS countries over the past decade has delivered tangible benefits to more than 3 billion people.

Xi said three important practices of the shared value should be carried forward — treating each other as equals, seeking results-oriented cooperation, and bearing in mind the well-being of the world.

“Dialogue without confrontation, partnership without alliance,” Xi summed up the cooperation principle in a simple phrase.

He said the principle has gained growing endorsement and has become a positive energy in the international community.

Rising Up To Challenges

The Chinese president said the global economy remains in a period of adjustment featuring weak growth and no apparent new drivers. Due to sluggish growth, protectionism and inward-looking mentality are on the rise. Uneven development and a deficit of fairness have become more acute.

He challenged BRICS countries to create new impetus for growth and continue to improve global economic governance.

“We should not ignore problems arising from economic globalization or just complain about them. Rather, we should make joint efforts to find solutions,” Xi said.

He said the BRICS countries should promote the building of an open global economy, advance trade and investment liberalization and facilitation, build new global value chains, and rebalance economic globalization.

“Only openness delivers progress, and only inclusiveness sustains such progress,” Xi said.

The long road to peace is not smooth, Xi said, calling on the BRICS countries to play a constructive part in the process of resolving geopolitical hotspot issues and make due contributions.

He envisioned flames of war dying and displaced refugees returning home as dialogue and consultation settle issues in Syria, Libya and the Palestine-Israel conflict.

Making Bigger Pie

The Chinese president said the development of emerging market and developing countries is not intended to “move the cheese of anyone” but to “make the pie of the global economy bigger.”

Over the past ten years, the share of the five BRICS countries in the global economy has more than doubled. They have contributed to more than half of global growth.

Xi said more emerging market and developing countries should be involved because BRICS, as a platform with global influence, concerns more than five countries.

During the Xiamen summit, China will hold the Dialogue of Emerging Market and Developing Countries, where the leaders of Egypt, Guinea, Mexico, Tajikistan and Thailand will join the BRICS leaders in discussing global development cooperation and South-South cooperation.

While outreach programs have existed in past BRICS summits since 2013, it is the first time participating leaders have come from around the world, but not just neighbors of the host country.

Xi said this “BRICS Plus” approach should be promoted to build an open and diversified network of development partners for the bloc.

Marching On With Reform

Turning to China, Xi said the country had made the “right choice” on deepening reform and will march on in strides.

“The past decade has not only seen solid progress in the BRICS cooperation; it has also witnessed the unfolding of all-round reform and opening up in China and its rapid economic and social development,” Xi told the forum.

He said China’s economic aggregate grew by 239 percent over the past ten years and the lives of its 1.3 billion-plus people have been significantly improved.

In the first half of 2017, the Chinese economy expanded by 6.9 percent and added 7.35 million new urban jobs.

Xi said China has been making increasingly more contribution to regional and global economy.

He said the Belt and Road Initiative, for example, is not a tool to advance any geopolitical agenda, but a platform for practical cooperation.

The initiative is not a foreign aid scheme, but one that advocates interconnected development with extensive consultation, joint contribution and shared benefits.

“Going forward, China will continue to put into practice the vision of innovative, coordinated, green, open and inclusive development,” he said.

“We will adapt to and steer the new normal of economic development, push forward supply-side structural reform, accelerate the building of a new system for an open economy, drive economic development with innovation, and achieve sustainable development,” Xi said.


China Org. 2017-09-04. Xi, Putin meet on bilateral ties, DPRK nuclear test

Chinese President Xi Jinping met with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Sunday, calling for enhancing mutual support and strategic coordination.

The two leaders also agreed to appropriately deal with the latest nuclear test conducted by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK).

Putin is in the southeastern Chinese coastal city of Xiamen, Fujian Province, to attend the ninth BRICS summit and the Dialogue of Emerging Market and Developing Countries scheduled for Sept. 3-5.

The two sides should consolidate the high-level mutual political trust, firmly strengthen mutual support and enhance strategic coordination, Xi said.

The role of bilateral cooperation mechanisms should be well played to advance projects in key areas including energy, aerospace and aviation, as well as nuclear power.

He urged advancing the integration of the Belt and Road Initiative with the Eurasian Economic Union.

Mutual understanding and friendship between the two peoples should be promoted through closer people-to-people and cultural exchanges and those at local levels, he said.

Xi also called on enhancing military cooperation as well as coordination on multilateral arenas.

China is willing to join hands with Russia to raise the bilateral relations to a higher level, promoting respective development and jointly safeguarding regional and world peace and stability, he said.

On BRICS cooperation, Xi said it is in line with the interests of the BRICS countries and the expectation of international community, especially the emerging market and developing countries, to enhance the group’s cooperation and enable the BRICS countries to play a more important role in international affairs.

The BRICS countries should consolidate solidarity and cooperation to send out positive signals to the world, chart the course and define the priorities for cooperation based on the overall situation, strengthen coordination to enhance international influence, and improve mechanisms of BRICS cooperation, said Xi.

China is willing to work with Russia and other BRICS countries to achieve fruitful results at the Xiamen summit and implement the outcomes effectively so that the BRICS can usher in a second “golden decade” of cooperation.

For his part, Putin said it is significant for China and Russia to strengthen comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination and boost communication and coordination on major international and regional issues.

He said Russia stands ready for closer cooperation with China in such areas as investment, energy, agriculture, infrastructure, and aerospace and aviation.

The two countries should also increase exchanges in culture, education, sports, media and tourism as well as those at local levels. Military exchanges should be closer, he said.

While discussing international and regional issues, the two leaders agreed to appropriately deal with the DPRK’s latest nuclear test.

The DPRK on Sunday successfully detonated a hydrogen bomb that can be carried by an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), DPRK’s Central Television announced. This was the sixth nuclear test the DPRK has undertaken.

China’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement, expressing firm opposition to and strong condemnation of the nuclear test.

Xi and Putin agreed to stick to the goal of denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula and keep close communication and coordination to deal with the new situation.

After the meeting, the two leaders visited an exhibition on intangible cultural heritage originated from southern Fujian Province.


China Org. 2017-09-04. Xi calls for synergizing development strategies among BRICS countries.

Chinese President Xi Jinping on Monday called on BRICS countries to synergize their development strategies to stimulate growth potential.

Xi made the remarks while addressing the ninth BRICS summit in the southeastern Chinese city of Xiamen, which was also attended by leaders of Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa.

The five countries should find areas where their respective development policies and priorities converge, and work to build a big market for trade and investment, achieve smooth flow of currency and finance, and realize infrastructure connectivity, Xi said.

“Despite our differences in national conditions, our five countries are in a similar stage of development and share the same development goals. We all face an arduous task in growing the economy,” Xi noted.

He said strengthening the complementarity of their development strategies will bring out their comparative strengths in resources, market and labor force, release the growth potential of the five countries and the creativity of their 3 billion people, and open up huge space for development. P Xi said the five countries need to plan well at the macro level and take concrete actions in key areas.

“With a focus on structural reform and sustainable development, we need to expand our converging interests and share experience on innovation, entrepreneurship, industrial development and production capacity to boost our economic development,” said Xi.

He said it is important to strike a balance between the speed of growth and the quality and efficiency of growth. By implementing the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda, BRICS countries have the opportunity to achieve balanced economic, social and environmental progress, and bring about interconnected and inclusive development, said Xi.


China Org. 2017-09-04. China to enhance cooperation with Thailand: Xi

Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha on Monday, calling for enhanced bilateral cooperation in various fields.

Prayut is in the southeastern Chinese coastal city of Xiamen to attend the Dialogue of Emerging Market and Developing Countries scheduled for Sept. 5.

China appreciates Thailand’s active participation in the Belt and Road Initiative, and is willing to strengthen cooperation with Thailand in areas of investment, railway, Internet finance, digital economy and e-commerce, Xi said.


China Org. 2017-09-04. Xi stresses China-Mexico strategic synergy

Chinese President Xi Jinping said Monday China and Mexico should synergize development strategies on the basis of their cooperative achievements since the two sides forged diplomatic ties 45 years ago.

Xi made the remarks when meeting with Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto, who came to the southeastern Chinese coastal city of Xiamen to attend the Dialogue of Emerging Market and Developing Countries scheduled for Sept. 5.


China Org. 2017-09-04. China expects stronger partnership for upcoming BRICS summit

China wants to build stronger partnerships within and beyond the five BRICS countries during the upcoming BRICS Xiamen Summit, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in Beijing Wednesday.

Speaking at a press briefing on the summit, Wang said that China expects outcomes in several areas, including strengthening economic and security cooperation, increasing cultural and people-to-people exchanges, enhancing institutional building, as well as promoting stronger partnerships with other emerging market countries and developing countries.

China will hold the BRICS Business Forum from Sept. 3 to 4, which will be the largest so far, Wang said.

Chinese President Xi Jinping will attend the opening ceremony of the forum and deliver a keynote speech, reviewing the progress that BRICS countries have made in the past ten years and looking to the future. Leaders of some other countries will also address the forum.

The BRICS Xiamen Summit opens on Sept. 4.

Xi will chair a small meeting of BRICS leaders, discussing world economy, global governance, international and regional hotspot issues, and national security and development. A larger meeting will focus on deepening cooperation, promoting cultural and people-to-people exchanges, as well as enhancing institutional building.

The BRICS leaders will also attend the opening ceremony of the BRICS Cultural Festival and Photo Exhibition, a meeting of the BRICS Business Council and a signing ceremony, which will be followed by a welcome banquet hosted by Xi and his wife, Peng Liyuan.

Three pillars

The BRICS mechanism has entered a new stage featuring the three pillars of economic cooperation, political and security cooperation, and people-to-people exchanges, Wang said. He added that there will be an increase in cultural activities involving BRICS countries this year as China holds the BRICS chairmanship.

China held the 2017 BRICS Games in its southern city of Guangzhou in June, marking the first comprehensive multilateral sports and cultural exchanges under the framework of BRICS cooperation.

China has also held a media forum, film festival, traditional medicine meeting and young diplomats forum, to promote friendship and understanding between the peoples of BRICS countries.

“The leaders of the BRICS countries will continue to accumulate consensus on strengthening people-to-people exchanges during the upcoming BRICS Xiamen Summit,” Wang said.

Beyond BRICS

Xi will chair the Dialogue of Emerging Markets and Developing Countries on Sept. 5, which will be attended by the leaders from the five BRICS countries, as well as the leaders of Egypt, Mexico, Tajikistan, Guinea and Thailand.

“It is in the interests of all sides to strengthen cooperation among emerging markets and developing countries through the BRICS platform, therefore China has proposed the ‘BRICS plus’ concept based on past experiences,” Wang said.

The dialogue will focus on deepening cooperation and promoting common development, and a statement will be released on the outcomes achieved on implementing a sustainable development agenda, promoting South-South cooperation, building partnerships and improving global governance.

Xi will hold a press conference after the dialogue to summarize the outcomes of the BRICS Xiamen Summit.

“China stands ready to work with other BRICS countries to make BRICS cooperation bigger, stronger and more solid to benefit not only the five BRICS countries, but also the whole world,” Wang said.


China Org. 2017-09-04. Ambassadors on BRICS Plus

BRICS Plus, as a model of expansion, was proposed by China on the basis of successful practices in former BRICS Summits. It is sought to establish widespread partnerships between BRICS member countries and other developing countries through dialogues and cooperation, expand our circle of friends, and shape the BRICS mechanism into an influential cooperation platform for South-South cooperation, so as to better reflect the common ground and collective will of the developing countries.

Then how do other developing countries make of the proposal? What opportunities does the BRICS Plus promise to them? To get some insight about these, China Today interviewed ambassadors of Iran, Georgia, Nepal, and South Sudan to China as well as two diplomats from Argentina and the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.

Iranian Ambassador to China Ali Asghar Khaji

“Since its founding, the BRICS cooperation mechanism has been representing a new cooperation concept, and played an important role in giving a voice in the international community on behalf of the developing world. The Iranian government showed its support to the BRICS Plus proposal when it was first put forward. As an important developing country in the region of North Africa and West Asia, Iran is poised to strengthen its cooperation with China under the framework of the Belt and Road and the BRICS Plus. In addition, we also hope China as a leading developing country, can play a bigger role in advancing cooperation among developing countries on such aspects as economy, security and social development.”

Pubblicato in: Cina, Russia

Brics Summit. Xiamen. Punto di vista della Bbc.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-09-04.

2017-09-04__Xiamen__001

Diciamo subito che questo riportato sembrerebbe essere più un articolo di routine che un ripensamento approfondito.

A nostro sommesso parere, ovviamente opinabile, considera il Summit esclusivamente dal punto di vista occidentale: questa è una caratteristica, non certo un difetto. Ma l’ottica resta pur sempre parziale.

Non solo. Sicuramente l’aspetto economico e finanziario è del massimo interesse, ma ciò non esclude che esista e si stia sviluppando anche un progetto politico.

«China’s vice minister of commerce, Wang Shouwen, also suggested China was interested in establishing a free trade agreement with Mexico.»

*

«The Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto is attending the dialogue at the invitation of the Chinese president.»

*

«The development of emerging markets and developing countries won’t touch anyone’s cheese, but instead will diligently grow the world economic pie»

*

«I am convinced that the Belt and Road initiative will serve as a new platform for all countries to achieve win-win cooperation»

*

«But the initiative has made India in particular quite uneasy, as it includes projects worth $62bn (£48bn) to be implemented in its neighbour and rival Pakistan»

*

«Construction began over the weekend on headquarters in Shanghai for the New Development Bank (NDB), which is the Brics alternative to the World Bank»

*

«To date, the NDB has invested in 11 projects, lending $1.5bn in 2016 with an additional $2.5bn in loans set for this year»

*

«China’s official Xinhua news agency reported that Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin met on the sidelines of the Brics meeting, and agreed to “appropriately deal” with North Korea’s nuclear test.»

*

«China said it strongly condemned the nuclear test and urged Pyongyang to stop its “wrong” actions»

*

«The US President suggested on Twitter that the US might stop “all trade with any country doing business with North Korea”»

* * * * * * *

Attendiamo che siano diffuse le relazioni ufficiali e le conclusioni del summit, tenendo però ben presente che non tutti gli accordi potrebbero essere resi pubblici.

Notiamo soltanto che alla presenza dell’Egitto si è aggiunta quella del Messico. Altri tasselli si stanno aggiungendo al puzzle sino-russo.


Bbc. 2017-09-04. Four things to watch at the Brics summit

The leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa are meeting amid heightened geopolitical tensions.

*

The summit of the so-called Brics nations brings together the five fast-growing economies, who are seeking a greater say in world affairs.

Economic ties will top the agenda at the three-day gathering in Xiamen, China which began Sunday.

But North Korea’s nuclear test and a border standoff between China and India could also colour discussions.

So what are the four key things to watch out for at this meeting?

  1. ‘Growing the pie’ without ‘touching the cheese’

While US President Donald Trump has pushed a protectionist trade agenda, pulling the US out of the Trans Pacific Partnership and renegotiating the North America Free Trade Agreement, China is striking a very different tone.

Chinese President Xi Jinping told the meeting that there is little to fear from closer trade ties.

“We should push for an open world economy, promote trade liberalisation and facilitation, jointly create a new global value chain, and realise a global economic rebalancing,” President Xi Jinping told Brics business leaders and senior officials in a speech on Sunday.

“The development of emerging markets and developing countries won’t touch anyone’s cheese, but instead will diligently grow the world economic pie,” he said.

But many countries have criticised China’s trade policies, saying they discriminate against foreign businesses.

Even within Brics, trade is heavily tilted in China’s favour, which has led to complaints from fellow members.

China’s vice minister of commerce, Wang Shouwen, also suggested China was interested in establishing a free trade agreement with Mexico.

The Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto is attending the dialogue at the invitation of the Chinese president.

  1. One Belt One Road

The sheer scale of China’s massive international infrastructure project – known as One Belt One Road – means it is often on the agenda at high level economic meetings like this one.

The project aims to expand trade links between Asia, Africa, Europe and beyond through infrastructure investments.

“I am convinced that the Belt and Road initiative will serve as a new platform for all countries to achieve win-win cooperation,” said President Xi.

But the initiative has made India in particular quite uneasy, as it includes projects worth $62bn (£48bn) to be implemented in its neighbour and rival Pakistan.

Also, tensions between China and India remain high after a border standoff, which was resolved just days before the conference.

  1. The New Development Bank

Construction began over the weekend on headquarters in Shanghai for the New Development Bank (NDB), which is the Brics alternative to the World Bank.

The NDB was seen as the first major Brics achievement after the group came together to press for a bigger say in the world’s financial affairs.

The bank aims to address a massive infrastructure funding gap in the member countries, which account for almost half the world’s population.

To date, the NDB has invested in 11 projects, lending $1.5bn in 2016 with an additional $2.5bn in loans set for this year.

Still, the bank is small potatoes when compared with the World Bank, and some have questioned China’s commitment, given it heads up the bigger Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

  1. The nuclear elephant in the room

The conference had an unwelcome surprise in the form of North Korea’s sixth nuclear test on Sunday.

China’s official Xinhua news agency reported that Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin met on the sidelines of the Brics meeting, and agreed to “appropriately deal” with North Korea’s nuclear test.

China said it strongly condemned the nuclear test and urged Pyongyang to stop its “wrong” actions.

The US President suggested on Twitter that the US might stop “all trade with any country doing business with North Korea”.

China is an obvious target of his comments, given that it is North Korea’s largest trading partner.

Some critics, however, have suggested that this is very unlikely, as it would do significant damage to the US economy because China is also America’s largest trading partner.

Pubblicato in: Cina

Oriente. La nuova guerra del’oppio.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-09-01.

Gufo_019__

Gli Orientali hanno un’ottima memoria storica ed, al contrario della tendenza liberal democratica in Occidente, non solo non rinnegano il proprio passato, ma anzi lo pongono come fondamento del proprio presente e futuro.

Non c’è fanciullo in Oriente che non abbia studiato già alle elementari la storia delle guerre dell’oppio e la rivolta dei Boxer.

Forse, un micro ripasso della storia potrebbe essere utile.

«Le guerre dell’oppio furono due conflitti, svoltisi dal 1839 al 1842 e dal 1856 al 1860 rispettivamente, che contrapposero l’Impero cinese sotto la dinastia Qing al Regno Unito di Gran Bretagna e Irlanda, i cui interessi militari e commerciali nella regione erano stati posti sotto il controllo della Compagnia britannica delle Indie orientali. Le guerre giunsero al culmine di annose dispute commerciali tra i due Paesi: in risposta alla penetrazione commerciale britannica che aveva aperto il mercato cinese all’oppio proveniente dall’India britannica, la Cina inasprì i propri divieti sulla droga e ciò scatenò il conflitto.

Sconfitto in entrambe le guerre, l’Impero cinese fu costretto a tollerare il commercio dell’oppio e a firmare con i britannici i trattati di Nanchino e di Tientsin, che prevedevano l’apertura di nuovi porti al commercio e la cessione dell’isola di Hong Kong al Regno Unito. Ebbe così inizio l’era dell’imperialismo europeo in Cina, numerose altre potenze europee seguirono l’esempio e firmarono con Pechino trattati commerciali. Gli umilianti accordi con gli occidentali ferirono l’orgoglio cinese e alimentarono un sentimento nazionalista e xenofobo che si sarebbe poi espresso nelle rivolte di Taiping (1850-1864) e dei Boxer (1899-1901).

….

L’oppio era stato introdotto in Cina nel XVII secolo dagli olandesi, ma il dilagare della tossicodipendenza aveva indotto l’imperatore Yongzheng a proibirne nel 1729 la vendita e l’uso, permettendone l’importazione solo a fini terapeutici. In virtù di tale decisione, i britannici avevano evitato a lungo di portarlo in Cina, ed erano stati i portoghesi a continuarne l’esportazione a Macao per farne medicinali. La Compagnia britannica delle Indie orientali, dopo aver conquistato il Bengala sconfiggendo i francesi nella Battaglia di Plassey del 1757, iniziò la coltivazione intensiva del papavero da oppio assicurandosi il predominio nei traffici selezionando gradualmente una qualità di oppio molto migliore e imponendo un sensibile aumento del suo prezzo nei mercati internazionali, concentrando inizialmente le esportazioni nel Sudest asiatico. Per appianare i bilanci scompensati dalla sproporzione tra entrate e uscite con la Cina nonché da altri problemi tra cui i tagli delle sovvenzioni statali dopo l’indipendenza degli Stati Uniti, verso la fine del XVIII secolo la Compagnia britannica delle Indie orientali cominciò ad esportare oppio in Cina, dove malgrado la proibizione era tornato di moda specialmente tra le classi più abbienti.

….

Le nuove leggi predisposte dalla corte di Pechino per porre fine al fenomeno furono regolarmente eluse dai mercanti stranieri e la situazione creò nel Paese preoccupazioni sempre maggiori, una delle quali fu il timore che la diffusione dell’oppio tra le classi più povere potesse favorire eventuali rivolte. Un’altra delle ragioni per cui i cinesi non riuscivano ad estirpare il traffico fu la dilagante corruzione tra i suoi funzionari, in particolare i governatori di Canton.» [Fonte]

*

La memoria storica degli immani disastri provocati dall’uso di sostanze stupefacenti è vivida nella mente degli Orientali e costituisce uno dei tanti elementi di acredine nei confronti degli Occidentali.

I Governi orientali non hanno la minima intenzione di sottostare ad una nuova invasione di commercianti di droga, di assistere senza far nulla contro la droga che rende debosciati i suoi utilizzatori: per esempio, in Cina l’art. 347 del codice penale prevede la pena di morte per i reati connessi alla droga.

Né ci si illuda: gli Orientali covano nel loro animo uno spirito di rivalsa nei confronti dell’Occidente.

* * * * * * *

«Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo in July ordered police to shoot suspected drug dealers if they resisted arrest, saying “there should be no mercy”.»

*

«Recently, the President [Duterte] said he will also kill human rights advocates if the campaign against drugs is stopped because of them and the illegal drug problem gets worse»

*

Nelle Filippine è in vigore l’Act Strengthening Nongovernment Organizations (Ngos), e sue successive modificazioni, riportato sulla Official Gazette of the Republic of the Philippines.

Soros George. Uno stato negli stati. Ecco i suoi principali voivodati.

Cina. Durissima risposta al report Usa sui ‘diritti umani’.

Orban contro Soros. Nuova legge sulle Ong.

Law of the People’s Republic of China on Administration of Activities of Overseas Nongovernmental Organizations in the Mainland of China.

Filippine. La situazione analizzata dal punto di vista cinese. Xinhua.

*

Non si resta quindi minimamente stupiti che quella parte del mondo occidentale che vive lucrando sullo spaccio della droga, quali i liberals democratici negli Stati Uniti e nell’Unione Europea, abbiano scatenato una guerra mediatica e politica contro i paesi orientali che hanno leggi proibizioniste circa la droga. In particolare, negli ultimi tempi, contro le Filippine di Mr Duterte.

Le finalità dei commercianti internazionali di droga sono sia di mero guadagno, lo spaccio di droga rende molto bene, sia quello di destabilizzazione delle facoltà mentali e volitive della popolazione. Esattamente gli stessi motivi che avevano portato alla guerra dell’oppio e, poi, a quella dei Boxer.

«Amnesty International has condemned what it described as an alarming number of police killings of suspected drug dealers in Indonesia.»

Ma chi è mai Amnesty International?

Quanto conta il suo parere?

Si presentino a libere elezioni e si potrà vedere nei fatti quanto contano.

Intano, fuori dall’Occidente contano meno di nulla.


Aljazeera. 2017-08-26. Duterte’s war on drugs and those reporting it

What’s behind the Philippine president’s war on the media and NGOs? Plus, reporting on the working class in the US.

*

On The Listening Post this week: The most violent week yet in Duterte’s Philippines sees over 90 killed and NGO workers threatened. Plus, reporting on labour and the working class in the US.

Duterte’s war on drugs and those reporting it

Since coming to power last June, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has been on a mission to eradicate what he claims is the country’s pandemic drug problem.

The brutal crackdown on the drug trade in the country is showing no signs of slowing down. Last week, 58 alleged drug dealers and users were killed in and around the capital, Manila. One of the victims, a 17-year-old, made headlines. Police say he was killed in a two-way firefight. Eyewitnesses, backed by CCTV footage, tell a different story.

President Rodrigo Duterte has dismissed the killings of children as “collateral damage” while labelling anyone who criticises his deadly approach as an “enemy of the state”.

Contributors:

Maria Ressa, CEO, Rappler

Vergel Santos, chairman, Center for Media Freedom and Responsibility

RJ Nieto, publisher, Thinking Pinoy

Karen Gomez-Dumpit, commissioner, Commission on Human Rights

Felipe Villamor, Philippines reporter, The New York Times


Aljazeera. 2017-08-26. Amnesty sounds alarm as Indonesia slays drug suspects

As police kill 60 people in 2016 compared to 18 last year, group says country could be following Philippines’ footsteps.

*

Amnesty International has condemned what it described as an alarming number of police killings of suspected drug dealers in Indonesia.

The rights group said on Wednesday that police had killed at least 60 suspects this year, compared to 18 in all of 2016.

The group warned that Indonesian authorities could be looking to emulate the “war on drugs” in the Philippines, in which thousands have been killed.

“This shocking escalation in unlawful killings by the police sounds serious alarms bells,” said Usman Hamid, Amnesty’s Indonesia director.

The group said it had collected data of the killings.

Shooting people on sight is not only unlawful, said Hamid, “it will also do nothing to address the root causes that lead to drug use in the first place”.

Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo in July ordered police to shoot suspected drug dealers if they resisted arrest, saying “there should be no mercy”.

His remarks drew comparison to those made by Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte, whose controversial crackdown on drugs has left more than 3,000 dead over the course of a year.

The killings in the Philippines may amount to “extrajudicial executions”, Amnesty International said.

The rights group accused the police of resembling a criminal enterprise, killing mainly poor people suspected of being drug users or sellers, or paying others to kill them.

“Duterte should not under any circumstances be considered a role model for Indonesia,” Usman said.

Of those killed in Indonesia in 2017, at least eight were foreigners, including three Chinese men.

Police said the suspects were shot because they resisted arrest, but no independent investigations were conducted, according to Amnesty International.

Indonesia has tough laws against drugs.

Since Widodo took office in 2014, Indonesia has executed 18 people for drug trafficking, defying international calls for mercy.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Commercio, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Geopolitica Mondiale, Russia, Sistemi Economici

Brics. Il Summit di settembre a Xiamen. Ripudio dell’Occidente.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-08-25.

Soffitti__005

Abbiamo già riferito del Simposio di Quanzhou, preparatorio al Summit dei Brics da tenersi a Xiamen il 3  5 settembre prossimo.

Cina. Quanzhou. I Brics decidono cosa farsene dell’Occidente.

«Delegates to a BRICS seminar, organised by the Communist Party of China (CPC) in the southeast city of Quanzhou analysed and debated the Chinese model of rapid development as the template for the rapid growth, especially of the global South»

*

«It highlights the theme: “BRICS: stronger partnership for a brighter future.”»

*

«BRICS members account for about 23 per cent of the world economy, and contributed to more than half of global growth in 2016»

*

«Peking University professor and former World Bank chief economist Justin Lin Yifu pointed out at the seminar that among nearly 200 developing economies since the end of the Second World War, only two have transitioned from low-income to high-income economies, with China possibly emerging as the third by 2025»

*

«He attributed the failure to avoid either the middle-income or low income trap, to pursuit of western mainstream economic theories — structuralism, and neoliberalism. He stressed that a right balance between the role of the market and the state was required to achieve breakthroughs, Xinhua reported»

*

«Mr. Lin highlighted that the “secret of China’s success is its use of both ‘invisible hand’ and ‘visible hand,'”. He added that technological innovation and industrial upgrading can proceed smoothly, only when the market and the state played their complementary roles»

*

«The weak hatchling will never take off if it depends on government aid, financial grants, and welfare allowances»

* * * * * * * *

Molte le novità. Se riporteremo solo alcune.

In primo luogo, si constata come nel 1990 il pil nominale cine ammontasse a 398.623 miliardi Usd, mentre nel 2016 tale valore era salito a 11,218.281: è aumentato di ventotto volte. Per comparazione il pil nominale in tale lasso di tempo è cresciuto di 6.9 volte in India, 3.1 volte negli Stati Uniti e di 2.2 volte in Germania.

In secondo luogo, si constata come in Cina l’accesso al potere politico avvenga tramite una selezione strettamente meritocratica all’interno del Pcc, vera e propria fucina di idee politiche, economiche e sociali. La Cina non ha bisogno alcuno né del suffragio universale né del concetto occidentale di “democrazia“. I politici cinesi hanno un tasso culturale che surclassa quello dei loro omologhi occidentali, e che consente di concepire e perseguire programmi strategici. I politici cinesi non necessitano di essere simpatici alla maggioranza, né ne sono schiavi. Una sorta di concezione platonica della politica.

In terzo luogo, la Cina ha gelosamente custodito il suo retaggio storico, culturale e sociale che ha retto per oltre quaranta secoli. Non ha permesso alle ong occidentali di infiltrarsi nel suo tessuto sociale. Non solo. La legge sul matrimonio della Repubblica popolare cinese definisce il matrimonio come unione tra un uomo e una donna, richiede ai genitori che adottano bambini dalla Cina di essere uniti in matrimoni eterosessuali. Se fino al 1997 l’omosessualità era considerata reato penale, mentre la sua militanza tuttora lo è, le disposizioni penali sul teppismo comprendono l’omosessualità.

In quarto luogo, la Cina rigetta, e quindi non segue le “mainstream economic theories“. In particolare il debito sovrano ammonta al 42.61% del pil nominale in Cina, 15.94% in Russia, 78.32% in Brasile, 69.54% in India, e 50.47% in Sud Africa.

In quinto luogo, constata come “technological innovation and industrial upgrading” abbiano un senso solo quando il mercato le richieda, per cui la Cina le introduce esclusivamente al bisogno.

In sesto luogo, vi è un fermo rigetto dei “government aid, financial grants, and welfare allowances“. E questo è una grossolana differenza con i paesi occidentali che pone i cinesi ed i Brics in antitesi con la Weltanscahuung liberal democratica.

* * * * * * *

Concludendo.

È significativo il titolo con cui il The Hindu tratta del prossimo Summit di Xiamen.

Ahead of Xiamen summit, BRICS discuss new rules of global governance

I Brics si apprestano a dettare al mondo, Occidente compreso, le nuove regole del governo globale, e queste saranno l’opposto di quelle propugnate dall’Occidente.

Per ulteriori approfondimenti 林毅夫.


The Hindu. 2017-08-18. Ahead of Xiamen summit, BRICS discuss new rules of global governance

The BRICS summit is being held in China’s coastal city of Xiamen from September 3-5. It highlights the theme: “BRICS: stronger partnership for a brighter future.”

*

As the countdown for the September summit of the Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa (BRICS) grouping begins, scholars, academics and government officials have been brainstorming ways in which the emerging economies can set the global agenda, based on new rules of governance.

Delegates to a BRICS seminar, organised by the Communist Party of China (CPC) in the southeast city of Quanzhou analysed and debated the Chinese model of rapid development as the template for the rapid growth, especially of the global South.

The BRICS summit is being held in China’s coastal city of Xiamen from September 3-5. It highlights the theme: “BRICS: stronger partnership for a brighter future.”

BRICS members account for about 23 per cent of the world economy, and contributed to more than half of global growth in 2016.

Peking University professor and former World Bank chief economist Justin Lin Yifu pointed out at the seminar that among nearly 200 developing economies since the end of the Second World War, only two have transitioned from low-income to high-income economies, with China possibly emerging as the third by 2025.

He attributed the failure to avoid either the middle-income or low income trap, to pursuit of western mainstream economic theories — structuralism, and neoliberalism. He stressed that a right balance between the role of the market and the state was required to achieve breakthroughs, Xinhua reported.

Mr. Lin highlighted that the “secret of China’s success is its use of both ‘invisible hand’ and ‘visible hand,'”. He added that technological innovation and industrial upgrading can proceed smoothly, only when the market and the state played their complementary roles.

Robert Kuhn, a China expert from the United States, focused on the pursuit of “Four Comprehensives” by Chinese leaders as an overarching framework to achieve rapid development goals. The “Four Comprehensives” cover efforts to pursue a moderately prosperous society, reform, rule of law and Party discipline, he observed.

While acknowledging China’s success, most participants also underscored that there is no one-size-fits-all development model that can be fully replicated to achieve growth. Essop Goolam Pahad, the editor of South Africa’s Thinker Magazine, pointed out that a change of mindset was essential as communities and their leader must believe that development is possible, whatever the odds. “The weak hatchling will never take off if it depends on government aid, financial grants, and welfare allowances,” he observed.

The brainstorming in Quanzhou has been preceded by a conference, earlier this month of the BRICS trade minister in Shanghai, which focused on the continued relevance of globalisation. In the wake of protectionist sentiments in the U.S. and Europe, it underscored the need for a united stand of the emerging economies against protectionism, and backing for a multilateral trade system.

In late July, a BRICS security meeting was held in Beijing, with discussions on global governance, anti-terrorism, the internet, energy, national security and development. A month earlier, finance ministers and central bank governors agreed to strengthen cooperation in several fiscal and financial areas, including the BRICS New Development Bank and regulatory collaboration.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Sistemi Economici, Sistemi Politici

Filippine. La situazione analizzata dal punto di vista cinese. Xinhua.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-08-22.

Mare Cinese del Sud 001

Essere obiettivi è davvero arte difficile, anche nella più perfetta buona fede.

Per gli italiani Oberdan Sauro e Battisti sono irredentisti martiri per l’Italia, mentre per gli austriaci sono traditori della patria. Chi studiasse la storia solo su testi italiani abbraccerebbe la prima interpretazione, chi invece studiasse la storia su testi austriaci abbraccerebbe la seconda.

La scelta delle fonti di informazione condiziona l’idea che ci si forma di quanto accade. Ma mica è detto che l’informazione di parte dica la verità.

*

Ma non esiste solo il punto di vista occidentale, esiste anche quello degli altri. Non solo. I media occidentali hanno tutti un’impronta liberal che le recenti elezioni hanno dimostrato essere minoritaria. Seguire solo questi media sarebbe fuorviante. Le elezioni hanno dimostrato e stanno dimostrando come i liberals democratici ed i socialisti europei siano una minoranza: il loro pensiero non rispecchia quello occidentale.  Proprio per niente.

Da un punto di vista meramente economico, se si considera il pil per potere di acquisto, il mondo genera 108,036,500 milioni Usd, la Cina 17,617,300 (16.31%) e gli Stati Uniti 17,418,00 (16.12%). L’Eurozona rende conto di 11,249,482 (10.41%) ed il Gruppo dei G7 di 31.825,293 (29.46%). Di conseguenza, la voce dell’Occidente vale nel mondo al massimo per il 29.46%, ma quella degli Stati Uniti vale solo il 16.12% e quella dell’Europa uno scarno 10.41%.

È davvero ingenua per non dire patetica la arrogante presunzione di quanti considerano l’Occidente egemone dominante: gli altri non glielo permetterebbero. Ma ancora più farsesca è la proterva superbia di quanti presumono che l’Eurozona (10.41%) possa condizionare il mondo: è vero proprio l’opposto.

Cina. Quanzhou. I Brics decidono cosa farsene dell’Occidente.

*

Diamo volentieri atto che i media cinesi, arabi, russi ed indiani sono usualmente molto più obbiettivi e quasi sempre riportano i fatti senza distorcerli, cosa non da poco. Di norma separano le notizie dai commenti.

* * * * * * *

I discorsi sopra fatti non sono per nulla di lana caprina.

L’Occidente ha perso negli ultimi decenni molte posizioni proprio per l’essersi incancrenito in simili ideologie. Da ultimo, sta persino perdendo la Turkia, da oltre settanta anni fedele alleata.

Ma quadro analogo si prospetta nel sud – est asiatico, con i rapporti con le Filippine.

Ma senza alleati l’Occidente corre il rischio di contare ancor meno di quanto conti ora.

Ma le Filippine hanno una posizione strategica nel Mare Cinese del Sud e sull’Oceano Pacifico.

Poniamo adesso un quesito: e se Mr Duterte avesse ragione? Perché non voler ascoltare anche le sue ragioni?

* * * * * * *

«Most Filipinos remain appreciative of the performance of President Rodrigo Duterte after one year of his term»

*

«In the national Capital Region, the survey said Duterte also scored 80 percent, or 7 percent higher than a previous survey conducted in March»

*

«Duterte managed to get high approval rating despite the strings of criticisms hurled in his way by some western countries and human rights groups alarmed by the hardline drug war»

*

«In the past year, President Duterte has initiated a series of economic reforms to accelerate economic development. Despite much “political noise,” the government seeks sustained growth around 6.5- to 7 percent in 2017, by banking on multiple initiatives, especially higher infrastructure spending»

*

«the current Philippine government debt of $123 billion is about to soar to $290 billion because China, the “most likely lender,” would impose high interest rates on the debt»

*

«These figures assume absence of transparency by the Duterte government and China on the interest rate, conditionality and repayment terms of $167 billion of new debt for the Philippines»

*

«the Department of Budget and Management (DBM) anticipated the Philippine debt position to remain sustainable, despite deficit spending for infrastructure. Between 2017 and 2022, the Duterte government plans to spend about $160 billion to $180 billion to fund the “Golden Age of Infrastructure.” An expansionary fiscal policy shall increase the planned deficit to 2 to 3 percent of GDP»

*

«Given deficit spending of 3 percent of GDP, the DBM assumes growth will be 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent this year and 7 percent to 8 percent from 2018 to 2022 (plus inflation of 2 percent to 4 percent). As a result, it projects the debt-to-GDP ratio to decline from 41 percent in 2016 to 38 percent in 2022»

*

«The realities are very different, however»

*

«Duterte is focused on infrastructure (his infrastructure budget as percentage of GDP is 2 to 3 times higher in relative terms).»

*

«Such objectives are far from neutral economic observation, but they do reflect political partisanship that is typical of Washington’s neoconservative and liberal imperial dreams»

*

«Duterte stressed that Russia is a reliable partner, and he offered to continue their friendship»

* * * * * * *

I media liberal occidentali odiano Mr Duterete per almeno due motivi, per loro di importanza fondamentale.

In primo luogo. Mr Duterte ha dichiarato guerra alla droga ed ha disposto la pena di morte in via amministrativa degli spacciatori, ottenendo in tempi molto rapidi una quasi completa bonifica delle Filippine.

In secondo luogo, pur tollerando a parole l’omosessualità e l’lgbt, si è fermamente opposto alla legalizzazione delle coppie omosessuali.

There is no gender because you can be a he or she… That’s their culture. It does not apply to us. We are Catholics and there is the Civil Code, which says that you can only marry a woman for me… a woman to marry a man. …. That’s our law so why would you accept that gender?»

*

Ma ciò che l’Occidente liberal considera i reati dei reati, nelle Filippine e nel resto del mondo sono invece comportamenti normali e legali. L’Occidente conta quanto il nobile decaduto che chiede l’elemosina sul sagrato di una Chiesa. Il blasone non è commestibile.

L’irrigidimento ideologico dell’Amministrazione Obama nei confronti delle Filippine ha obbligato Mr Duterte a riavvicinarsi alla Cina ed alla Russia, che, non nutrendo ideologie di sorta, non possono nemmeno cercare di imporle ai loro partner economici e militari.

Per irrigidimento ideologico l’Occidente ha già quasi perso la Turkia: nulla vieta di pensare che la prossima perdita siano proprio le Filippine.


Nota.

Nella comparazione economica è stata usato l’indice del pil ppa, per potere di acquisto, perché più appropriato. Il discorso teorico sarebbe lungo ed anche alquanto barboso: ci spiegheremo con un esempio.

Consideriamo due persone che guadagnino ciascuna 1,500 euro al mese.

La prima vive a Londra, dove l’affitto di una camera ammobiliata si aggira sui 1,200 euro al mese. Pur essendo persona molto parsimoniosa, vive ai margini della miseria, nella fascia di povertà.

La seconda vive in Venezuela. Con tale introito mensile può permettersi una villetta, la cuoca e due persone di servizio. Essa vive in condizione di lusso.

Stessa entrata mensile, ma differenti poteri di acquisto.

Il pil ppa è calcolato tenendo conto del costo della vita, rendendo così comparabili dati raccolti in paesi diversi.



New China. 2017-05-25. Philippines’ Duterte asks Putin for arms support

MOSCOW, May 24 (Xinhua) — Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has asked his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, for arms to fight Islamic militants in the Asian country.

“Our country needs modern weapons to fight against ISIS. We had certain orders in the U.S., however, the situation is not very good now. I came to Moscow to ask for your help and support,” the Kremlin quoted Duterte as telling Putin in a meeting on Tuesday.

Duterte stressed that Russia is a reliable partner, and he offered to continue their friendship.

“We need to improve trade exchange between the two countries,” the Philippine leader said.

Putin noted that Moscow and Manila have many bilateral projects, including power engineering, defense cooperation, and transport infrastructure.

Duterte arrived in Moscow on Tuesday for a four-day official visit, but was forced to cut short his trip as fighting broke out in the southern Philippine region of Mindanao.

Putin said he hoped the conflict in the Philippines would be resolved “with minimum losses.”

Duterte’s delegation remained in Moscow to sign bilateral agreements on Wednesday, Russian media reported.


Xinhua. 2017-07-17. Philippines’ Duterte enjoys high approval rating at 82 percent: poll

MANILA, July 17 (Xinhua) — Most Filipinos remain appreciative of the performance of President Rodrigo Duterte after one year of his term, according to an independent poll released here Monday.

A survey by Pulse Asia Inc. conducted from June 24 to June 29 showed that 82 percent of the 1,200 people surveyed nationwide approved the way Duterte runs the country.

Out of all the respondents, the poll said 13 percent were undecided about Duterte’s performance, while 5 percent disapproved Duterte’s performance. Overall, the poll said Duterte scored the highest among the top government officials covered by the survey.

“Most Filipinos remain appreciative of the performance of (Duterte), Vice President Maria Leonor Robredo and Senate President Aquilino Pimentel,” the poll said, adding that Robredo got 61 percent while Pimentel, 62 percent.

In the national Capital Region, the survey said Duterte also scored 80 percent, or 7 percent higher than a previous survey conducted in March. In the main Luzon Island, the survey said Duterte scored 75 percent, or 4 percent higher than the March survey. Duterte scored the highest in his bailiwick Mindanao, scoring 95 percent, or 7 percent higher than the score he got in March, the survey said.

However, the survey noted that Duterte’s approval rating dropped 2 percent in the Visayas region in the central Philippines from 86 percent in March to 84 percent.

Duterte managed to get high approval rating despite the strings of criticisms hurled in his way by some western countries and human rights groups alarmed by the hardline drug war campaign and the declaration of martial law in the entire Mindanao in the southern Philippines.

Government authorities said the ongoing war in Marawi City against militants allied with the Islamic State has so far claimed the lives of at least 593 people, including 411 terrorists, 97 security forces and 45 civilians.

Duterte, who assumed the presidency in June last year, ends his single, six-year term in 2022.


Xinhua. 2017-07-26. Philippine President Duterte vows for closer relations with China

MANILA, July 25 (Xinhua) — Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte pledged on Tuesday that his country is to build stronger bilateral relations with China.

“The Philippines attaches great importance to China’s status and influence in the world, and is willing to build stronger relations with China,” Duterte said in his meeting with visiting Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

Duterte said the Philippines highly appreciates the support China extends to his country and the role China plays in his country’s nation building, especially China’s support to combat terrorism.

Duterte expressed his satisfaction with the development of the bilateral ties between the two countries, saying the Philippines is willing to deepen cooperation with China in all sectors so as to benefit the two countries and their peoples.

Wang reiterated that China unswervingly supports Philippine’s independent foreign policy.

Wang recalled that bilateral relations between China and the Philippines have fully improved under the guidance of the leaders of the two countries, saying improvement in relations has brought tangible benefits to the two peoples.

“Facts speak louder. For neighbors, dialogue is better than confrontation, cooperation is better than friction. History will show that we have made a right choice,” Wang said.


Xinhua. 2017-08-05. The myths and realities of Duterte’s infrastructure initiative

In the past year, President Duterte has initiated a series of economic reforms to accelerate economic development. Despite much “political noise,” the government seeks sustained growth around 6.5- to 7 percent in 2017, by banking on multiple initiatives, especially higher infrastructure spending.

According to Ernesto Pernia, Director General of the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA), investment spending must be ramped up to 30 percent of GDP for the Philippines to become an upper middle-income economy by the end of Duterte’s term in 2022, and to pave the way for a high-income economy by 2040.

Yet, the huge infrastructure investment effort has been often misreported internationally. Infrastructure investment is a case in point.

The allegation: Infrastructure as ‘debt slavery’

In early May, Budget Secretary Benjamin Diokno estimated that some $167 billion would be spent on infrastructure during President Duterte’s six-year term. Only a day later, US business magazine Forbes released a commentary, which headlined that this debt “could balloon to $452 billion: China will benefit.”

According to the author, Dr. Anders Corr, the current Philippine government debt of $123 billion is about to soar to $290 billion because China, the “most likely lender,” would impose high interest rates on the debt: “Over 10 years, that could balloon the Philippines’ debt-to-GDP ratio to as high as 296 percent, the highest in the world.”

These figures assume absence of transparency by the Duterte government and China on the interest rate, conditionality and repayment terms of $167 billion of new debt for the Philippines. Due to accrued interest, “Dutertenomics, fueled by expensive loans from China, will put the Philippines into virtual debt bondage if allowed to proceed.” Corr assumes China’s interest rate would amount to 10 percent to 15 percent.

But why would the Philippines accept such a nightmare scenario? Because, as Corr puts it, “Duterte and his influential friends and business associates could each benefit with hundreds of millions of dollars in finder’s fees, of 27 percent, for such deals.”

He offers no facts or evidence to substantiate the assertions, however.

The official story: Debt decline, despite infrastructure investment

Recently, the Department of Budget and Management (DBM) anticipated the Philippine debt position to remain sustainable, despite deficit spending for infrastructure. Between 2017 and 2022, the Duterte government plans to spend about $160 billion to $180 billion to fund the “Golden Age of Infrastructure.” An expansionary fiscal policy shall increase the planned deficit to 2 to 3 percent of GDP.

To finance the deficit, the government will borrow money following an 80-20 borrowing mix in favor of domestic sources, to alleviate foreign exchange risks—which would seem to undermine the story of China as the Big Bad Wolf.

The fiscal strategy is manageable because the economy, despite increasing deficit, will outgrow its debt burden as economic expansion outpaces the growth in the rate of borrowing. So what is the expected impact on the debt-to-GDP ratio?

Given deficit spending of 3 percent of GDP, the DBM assumes growth will be 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent this year and 7 percent to 8 percent from 2018 to 2022 (plus inflation of 2 percent to 4 percent). As a result, it projects the debt-to-GDP ratio to decline from 41 percent in 2016 to 38 percent in 2022.

The realities: Growth over deficit financing

The current Philippine debt-to-GDP ratio compares well with its regional peers. It is half of that of Singapore and less than that of Vietnam, Malaysia, Laos and Thailand (see Figure 1). The starting point for a huge infrastructure upgrade is favorable. True, in a downscale risk analysis, Philippine growth performance might not reach the target, but would be likely to stay close to it – which would still translate to a manageable increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio.

Yet, Corr claims that Philippine debt ratio will soar seven-fold in the Duterte era, whereas the DBM estimate offers evidence the debt could slightly decline. The difference between the two is almost 260 percent.

Today, Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 250 percent of its GDP. However, at the turn of the 1980s, the ratio was still closer to 40 percent, or where the Philippine level is today. Yet, Corr claims the Duterte government would need barely four years to achieve not only Japan’s debt ratio today but a level that would be another 50 percent higher!

The realities are very different, however. The contemporary Philippines enjoys sound macroeconomic fundamentals, not Marcos-era vulnerability. Moreover, Corr’s tacit association of Duterte’s infrastructure goals with former President Marcos’s public investment program (and the associated debt crisis in the 1980s) proves hollow. Duterte is focused on infrastructure (his infrastructure budget as percentage of GDP is 2 to 3 times higher in relative terms).

Today, borrowing conditions are also more favorable (365-day Treasury bill rates are 3 to 4 times lower than in the Marcos era). Furthermore, the Philippine gross international reserves, which amount to 9 months, are relatively highest among Asean economies and 3 to 4 times higher than in the Marcos era (Figure 2).

In addition to realities, Corr’s analysis ignores the dynamics of debt. Any country’s debt position is not just the nominal amount of the debt, but its value relative to the size of the economy. An economy that is barely growing and suffers from dollar-denominated debt lacks capacity to pay off its liabilities, as evidenced by Greece. In contrast, with its strong growth record, the Philippines has the capacity to grow while paying off its liabilities.

Geopolitical agendas, economic needs

Corr could have challenged DBM’s assumptions about Philippine future growth, potential increases in infrastructure budget, contingent adverse shifts in the international environment and so on, but his purposes may be political.

He is close to US Pentagon and intelligence communities, which strongly oppose Duterte’s recalibration of Philippine foreign policy between the US and China. According to the US Naval Institute, he has visited all South China Sea claimant countries and undertaken “field research” in Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Brunei. He has been an associate for Booz Allen Hamilton (as once was Edward Snowden). Though he has ties with international multilateral banks, he is less of an “economic hit man” and has more interest in US security matters.

Corr led the US Army social science research already in Afghanistan and conducted analysis at US Pacific Command (USPacom) and US Special Operations Command Pacific (Socpac) for US national security in Asia, including in the Philippines, Nepal, and Bangladesh. Currently, he is researching Russia and Ukraine for the Pentagon. He has urged President Trump to use stronger military presence in the South China Sea, bullied Pakistan with sanctions, and supported independentistas in Hong Kong and Taiwan, labeled Chinese students abroad as Beijing’s informants, while exploring US nuclear options against North Korea.

Such objectives are far from neutral economic observation, but they do reflect political partisanship that is typical of Washington’s neoconservative and liberal imperial dreams– but not the views of most Americans, according to major polls.

In the Philippines, Duterte’s supporters see Chinese debt as a business deal that will ultimately support the country’s future. After Forbes, the Duterte government’s critics were quick to report the story, but without appropriate examination of its economic assertions and possible strategic motives. Overall, while liberals tend to oppose the debt plans for geopolitical reasons, their economists are more sympathetic.

In any real assessment, simple realism should prevail: When the rate of economic expansion exceeds that of debt growth, low-cost financing for public projects can make a vital contribution to the Philippines’ economic long-term future.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Russia, Stati Uniti, Unione Europea

Cina. Quanzhou. I Brics decidono cosa farsene dell’Occidente.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-08-20.

Accordo 001

Il fatto che l’Occidente ignori questi avvenimenti non significa minimamente che essi non accadano.

Il 3 – 5 settembre si terrà a Xiamen il Summit dei Brics. Ora è in corso un seminario preparatorio: semplicemente i Brics stanno tirando per la loro strada.

Strada che tra lo sconcerto degli Occidentali, non condivide quasi in nulla la Weltanschauung imperante in Occidente, né in campo politico, né in campo economico, né in campo sociale. Non solo: non si cura minimamente di cosa faccia l’Occidente.

Ma se l’Occidente non influenza più la condotta dei Brics, saranno allora essi a condizionare l’Occidente.

* * * * * * *

«Openness, Inclusiveness, Mutual Benefits and Win-Win: Working Together to Build a Community of Shared Future for Mankind»

*

«In a scenario of a successful BRICS, developing countries can identify with the objectives of this seminar of building a shared future for mankind, with transparency, openness and inclusiveness in our cooperation, with mutual benefit and a win-win for all»

*

«A seminar focused on governance, with over 160 people from government agencies, business circle and the academia»

*

«Five BRICS countries, namely Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, are assuming a greater role in the world arena with statistics showing that their combined economic output accounts for a quarter of the world’s and their contribution to world economic growth is almost 50 percent»

*

«The actions of the BRICS members have a global impact rather than just being restricted to the five member countries»

* * * * * * *

Da un punto di vista meramente economico, se si considera il pil per potere di acquisto, il mondo genera 108,036,500 milioni Usd, la Cina 17,617,300 (16.31%) e gli Stati Uniti 17,418,00 (16.12%). L’Eurozona rende conto di 11,249,482 (10.41%) ed il Gruppo dei G7 di 31.825,293 (29.46%). Però i Brics conteggiano un pil ppa di 32,379,625 Usd, ossia il 29.97% del pil ppa mondiale. I Brics valgono come i paesi del G7.

Di conseguenza, la voce dell’Occidente vale nel mondo al massimo per il 29.46%, ma quella degli Stati Uniti vale solo il 16.12% e quella dell’Eurozona uno scarno 10.41%.

Il pil ppa rende bene l’idea, ma non è l’unico modo di conteggiare. Secondo altre metodiche i Brics varrebbero il 25% dell’economia mondiale e renderebbero conto del 50% della crescita dei sistemi economici. Un risultato molto simile.

*

Segnaliamo come questo evento non sia riportato dai media occidentali, dei quali riportiamo alcuni significativi titoli odierni.

Trump defends ‘beautiful’ Civil War statues.

Germans Not Flush Enough For Luxury Toilets

Who orgasms most and least, and why

Questo ultimo articolo ci ragguaglia su temi cari ai liberal democratici americani:

«But why does this gender gap exist, and what can be done to achieve orgasm equality? After all, about 40% of women experience sexual dysfunction, associated with a chronic difficulty in achieving orgasm

*

Ci si rende perfettamente conto di quanto sia importante l’iconoclastia americana nel voler rinnegare il proprio retaggio storico, esattamente come ci si rende conto di quanto le femmine occidentali siano incapaci di ottenere l’orgasmo, e della importanza assoluta di parificare gli orgasmi tra i gender differenti.

Ma constatiamo anche come questi problemi interessino esclusivamente gli Occidentali, liberal, non il resto del mondo.

Due righe sul Simposio dei Brics a Quanzhou non avrebbero guastato sulla stampa occidentale.

Poi, non ci si lamenti se i Brics crescono a grande velocità mentre l’Occidente tramonta.

* * * * * * *

Adesso, piaccia o meno, sono i Brics a decidere cosa fare dell’Occidente.

«Peking University professor and former World Bank chief economist Justin Lin Yifu pointed out at the seminar that among nearly 200 developing economies since the end of the Second World War, only two have transitioned from low-income to high-income economies, with China possibly emerging as the third by 2025.

He attributed the failure to avoid either the middle-income or low income trap, to pursuit of western mainstream economic theories — structuralism, and neoliberalism. He stressed that a right balance between the role of the market and the state was required to achieve breakthroughs, Xinhua reported.

Mr. Lin highlighted that the “secret of China’s success is its use of both ‘invisible hand’ and ‘visible hand,'”. He added that technological innovation and industrial upgrading can proceed smoothly, only when the market and the state played their complementary roles.» [The Hindu]

I Brics prendono atto del fallimento delle teorie economiche imperanti in Occidente, almeno fino all’arrivo di Mr Trump.

«The actions of the BRICS members have a global impact rather than just being restricted to the five member countries»


China Org. 2017-08-17. BRICS governance seminar opens in Quanzhou, Fujian

A seminar focused on governance, with over 160 people from government agencies, business circle and the academia attending, opens in Quanzhou, Fujian Province, on Aug. 17 in the run-up to the BRICS summit early next month.

Themed on “Openness, Inclusiveness, Mutual Benefits and Win-Win: Working Together to Build a Community of Shared Future for Mankind,” the two-day event is hosted by the Publicity Department of the CPC Central Committee and co-organized by the Chinese Academy of Governance and China International Publishing Group (CIPG).

Speaking during the opening ceremony of the event, Huang Kunming, deputy head of the Publicity Department of the CPC Central Committee, pays tribute to the event, an instructive platform for lively discussion and mutual learning.

“It is of great significance for BRICS countries who are undergoing development at a similar stage and facing shared challenges to discuss and learn from each other for a better shared future.”

Five BRICS countries, namely Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, are assuming a greater role in the world arena with statistics showing that their combined economic output accounts for a quarter of the world’s and their contribution to world economic growth is almost 50 percent.

Huang suggests that the seminar should be a long-term program, affording space to bring together think tanks and the media to provide intellectual support for common development while expanding the scale of exchanges and cooperation under an environment of more players joining in.

Mizengo Peter Pinda, former prime minister of Tanzania, viewed the event as a special and unique gathering, commenting: “In a scenario of a successful BRICS, developing countries can identify with the objectives of this seminar of building a shared future for mankind, with transparency, openness and inclusiveness in our cooperation, with mutual benefit and a win-win for all.”

The seminar includes an opening ceremony and three parallel meetings which center respectively on “enhancing reform for common development,” “increasing communication for cultural prosperity,” and “strengthening collaboration for global governance.”


China Org. 2017-08-18. Huang Youyi: BRICS influence beyond five countries

“With improved cooperation, improved economy and shared solutions for fighting world challenges, BRICS will further expand its influence in the next decade,” predicted a Chinese expert on Thursday during a seminar in southeastern China.

Huang Youyi, a member of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and executive vice president of the Translators Association of China, foresaw the growing impact of the association of emerging countries on the world stage during an interview with China.org.cn on the sidelines of the BRICS Seminar on Governance that opened Aug. 17 in Quanzhou, Fujian Province.

“The actions of the BRICS members have a global impact rather than just being restricted to the five member countries,” said Huang, pointing out that more countries were showing interest in the mechanism and would like to learn from each country’s successful development models.

As many as 160 people from government agencies, business circle and the academia in the BRICS nations and over 10 countries outside the bloc joined the seminar to discuss good practices of domestic governance as well as new approaches to global governance, leading to openness, inclusiveness, mutual benefits and win-win output.

Earlier this year, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said China would explore the expansion modalities for “BRICS Plus” and build a wider partnership by holding dialogues with other major developing countries and organizations, so as to turn BRICS into the world’s most influential platform for South-South cooperation.

Currently, the BRICS group has five member countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – and potential new members such as Mexico, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The seminar in Quanzhou, in Huang’s words, “fully reflects the BRICS spirit as well as China’s position of common consultation and win-win resolution”, with people from different parts of the world, including Africa, Asia and Latin America, coming together to exchange ideas and explore various options for governance suited to their own situation.

Explaining China’s approach to domestic governance, Huang said that, after many trials and tribulations and more than 100 years of experience, only in the last decades had the nation managed to find a path suitable to its own conditions, namely, the road of socialism with Chinese characteristics, able to carry out reforms and meet various important goals.

This governance approach could provide a reference point for other countries with some adaptations to meet varying national conditions, he added.

Besides the domestic approach, China’s global governance style has met with strong support, with its ideas like building a community of shared future for mankind, inclusive development and common consultation gaining popularity worldwide.

This, Huang argued, was proved by the sheer number of international participants in and outside the BRICS mechanism attending the Quanzhou seminar.

“The idea of ‘BRICS Plus’ does sound attractive,” he added.

Before the organization, as expected, includes more members, he believed there would be all kinds of forums as well as annual meetings held under the BRICS mechanism involving the participation of more people outside of the five countries.

China will host the ninth BRICS annual summit in the southeastern coastal city of Xiamen, Fujian Province, from September 3 to 5, as the country takes the rotating chair of the influential bloc.

Pubblicato in: Geopolitica Militare, Problemi militari

Russia. I siluri Khishchnik e VA-111 Shkval. Serie minacce alle portaerei.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-08-16.

 2017-07-31__Siluro__Russo__ 1516090282365511054

Si resta sempre sorpresi su come riescano i russi ad impiegare in modo così produttivo un bilancio militare che ufficialmente si attesterebbe attorno ai 65 miliardi di dollari americani.

I russi dispongono di una marina sufficiente per svolgere compiti locoregionali, senza attuali ambizioni globali. Una flotta di tale impostazione strategica abbisogna sicuramente di armi offensive, ma soprattutto di quelle difensive: sistemi contraerei ed anti-missile, sistemi missilistici anti-nave e, ovviamente siluri efficienti.

Loro obiettivo conclamato è il dominio dei mari limitrofi la Russia, ossia impedire ad altre marine militari di potersi avvicinare pericolosamente alle loro coste.

Alla fine del secolo scorso l’allora Unione Sovietica aveva messo in linea il siluro VA-111 Shkval, prodotto militare altamente innovativo: poteva infatti navigare ad una velocità di circa 90 km/h al momento del lancio, raggiungendo in breve i 370 km/h. Se è vero che essendo molto rumoroso era altrettanto facilmente individuabile, la sua stessa velocità gli avrebbe assicurato alte probabilità di colpire e distruggere l’obiettivo.

Cerchiamo di comprendere, per quello che è dato di sapere, come funziona un simile marchingegno e di razionalizzare le conseguenze tattiche e strategiche.

*

Supercavitazione.

«La supercavitazione è una tecnica che permette di utilizzare gli effetti dell’ordinaria cavitazione per creare una bolla di gas all’interno di un liquido, permettendo ad un oggetto di viaggiare ad altissima velocità all’interno del liquido stesso, rimanendo però completamente avvolto dalla bolla di gas. La bolla riduce drasticamente la resistenza dell’oggetto, permettendogli di raggiungere velocità impossibili da ottenere con una normale tecnica di navigazione. Occorre considerare che la resistenza incontrata da un oggetto in un gas è molto inferiore a quella riscontrata in un liquido.

Quando in un liquido la pressione statica è minore della relativa tensione di vapore, avviene una transizione di fase e il liquido passa in fase gassosa sotto forma di bolle. Questo fenomeno è detto cavitazione. In genere la cavitazione è dannosa e da evitare nelle applicazioni fluidodinamiche: genera rumore, diminuzione di efficienza degli oggetti coinvolti ed erosione delle superfici a contatto.

La supercavitazione è utilizzata da alcuni siluri superveloci. Un siluro a supercavitazione è progettato per generare appositamente queste bolle di gas: l’estremità anteriore del siluro ha forma piatta con bordi sagomati. Quando l’oggetto raggiunge la velocità dell’ordine di 45 m/s, l’estremità piatta deflette l’acqua, che, incontrando a valle dell’estremità una pressione inferiore alla sua tensione di vapore, passa in fase gassosa dando origine ad una bolla di gas attorno alla punta del siluro. Aumentando ulteriormente la velocità ed iniettando gas di altra origine è possibile far crescere la bolla gassosa fino a ricoprire l’intero siluro.» [Fonte]

*

VA-111 Shkval

«Il VA-111 Shkval (in russo: шквал, “groppo”) è un siluro russo. Grazie all’utilizzo del fenomeno della supercavitazione può raggiungere delle velocità estremamente elevate (370 km/h). A causa di ciò la velocità e il rumore generato impongono un funzionamento più simile alla palla di fucile, che a quello di un siluro tradizionale e la portata è relativamente ridotta (tra i 7 e i 13 chilometri secondo le versioni).

La modalità di costruzione di tali armi rimane uno dei segreti più gelosamente custoditi dell’industria bellica russa, ma nel caso dello Shkval è noto che il siluro invia una parte dei gas che fuoriescono dai suoi ugelli di scarico in direzione del suo muso, cosa che permette di mantenere il siluro in una bolla di gas stabile di forma adeguata che lo separa dall’acqua circostante (supercavitazione). Il naso del proiettile è relativamente piatto e il corpo dell’arma possiede numerose alette destinate a stabilizzarlo.

Non esiste siluro occidentale paragonabile.» [Fonte]

È entrato in servizio nei primi anni del novanta: supporta testate convenzionali oppure nucleari.

 

Khishchnik

Questo nuovo tipo di siluro a razzo dovrebbe essere un consistente miglioramento tecnico rispetto al VA-111 Shkval.

The National Interest titola in questa maniera:

Russia Has a Crazy Fast Torpedo That Seems Unstoppable

«Khishchnik may also be significantly faster than the 1970s Shkval. Very high speeds underwater are certainly possible. A US Navy lab succeeded in firing an underwater projectile at an incredible 1500 meters per second, and the Chinese have talked about supersonic underwater vehicles, though there is no evidence they have achieved this.

Very little information is being released on Khishchnik apart from the fact that it is being developed by Elektropribor, a design bureau which makes instruments for ships and subs as well as aviation components. Its existence was revealed in documents uncovered by Russian defense blog BMPD which revealed that the company had been working on Khishchnik since 2013 and that launch tests were expected in 2016 as part of a contract worth 3 billion roubles ($53m). There have been no official comments or announcements.

Other companies may also be working on the project. In 2016, Boris Obnosov, CEO of Russian company Tactical Missiles Corp, mentioned work in this area to Rambler News Service.

“Take for instance the well-known unique Shkval underwater missile. We are working on upgrading it heavily.”

The ‘heavily upgraded’ Shkval seems likely to be the Khishchnik.

Shkval has been upgraded several times previously, with improvements in range and guidance. A new name suggests a more significant upgrade. An export version of the Shkval, the Shkval-E was produced in 1999. There would be a big market for an unstoppable, carrier-killing torpedo.»

L’attuale tecnologia arriverebbe quindi a supportare velocità subacquee di 1,500 metri al secondo, ossia 5,400 km/h.

Da quanto sembrerebbe di poter capire, il Khishchnik potrebbe raggiungere la velocità di poco meno di 800 km/h con una portata utile di 30 – 50 kilometri. La testa generatrice del bubble sarebbe orientabile, consentendo quindi cambiamenti di rotta. Sembrerebbe anche verosimile che il sistema di guida sia stato migliorato afferendogli capacità di auto indirizzamento sull’obiettivo.

Considerazioni.

Stati Uniti e forze navali Nato non hanno sviluppato un simile sistema d’arma per il semplice motivo che, almeno al momento, le loro flotte militari non sono contrastate da forze navali degne di quel nome. In ogni caso, all’occorrenza, l’Occidente ha a disposizione tutte le tecnologie necessarie.

Opposta è invece la situazione sia della Russia sia della Cina, che solo del tutto recentemente inizia a sviluppare l’esigenza di flotte militari di altura.

Questi due stati hanno come preoccupazione principale le portaerei americane, che vorrebbero poter tenere più lontane possibile dalle loro coste e dalle loro basi navali. In questa ottica il VA-111 Shkval ed adesso il Khishchnik,  sono armi che le portaerei non possono ignorare. Se è vero che le portaerei navigano ben protette da flotte di difesa e rifornimento, è altrettanto vero che nel rapporto prestazioni / costo una portaerei vale quasi venti miliardi, tenendo conto dell’armamento di bordo, mentre un siluro Khishchnik costa circa 50 milioni.

Accanto a questa tipologia di siluri, russi e cinesi hanno sviluppato una vasta gamma di missili ipersonici a bassa quota anti – nave.

«La Russia ha iniziato la sperimentazione dei nuovi ipersonici da crociera anti-nave Zircon, come ha riportato giovedì Sputnik News citando RIA Novosti. I missili da crociera dovrebbero essere in grado di raggiungere cinque o sei volte la velocità del suono (Mach 5 o Mach 6), ha aggiunto il rapporto. ….

I moderni missili anti-nave russi, come gli Onyx, possono raggiungere velocità fino a 2,6 Mach (circa 750 metri al secondo). Il missile da crociera Kalibr viaggia ad una velocità di 0,9 Mach, ma mentre si avvicina al bersaglio la sua velocità di punta può arrivare fino a 2,9 Mach. ….

la portata del missile è probabile che sia di circa 400 chilometri.» [International Business Times]

In conclusione, anche se nessuno intende sottovalutare le capacità difensive delle navi militari della Nato ed americane in modo particolare, anche se li riteniamo essere troppo allarmistici, ben comprendiamo i titoli recentemente comparsi sulla stampa.

Il missile cinese CM-302 è la migliore arma antinave al mondo?

«Il missile supersonico CM-302 è in grado di colpire anche bersagli terrestri. ….

la Cina non possiede missili antinave simili ai russi P-1000 “Basalt” e P-700 “Granit”. Il P-700 da solo è grande come un piccolo aereo, con una massa di 7 tonnellate e colpisce il suo bersaglio ad una velocità Mach 2 e inoltre ha un proprio sistema di guida computerizzato dotato di contromisure EW (Electronic Warfare). Questi missili possono essere lanciati in salve, e durante il volo sono capaci di comunicare tra loro per coordinare l’attacco contemporaneamente su diversi bersagli. Il P-1000 può essere equipaggiato con una testata nucleare. Questi missili sono stati modernizzati più volte, possono essere lanciati dalle coste e sono stati progettati per colpire una portaerei a più di 700km di distanza.»

*

La Russia rilancia la corsa al missile antiportaerei

Le nuove portaerei degli USA, ‘cimiteri galleggianti’ da 15 miliardi di dollari?


The Economist. 2017-01-19. A new Russian weapon may give it an underwater advantage

The principle of supercavitation continues to intrigue torpedo designers.

*

WHEN introduced 40 years ago, the Soviet Shkval (“Squall”) torpedo was hailed as an “aircraft-carrier killer” because its speed, more than 370kph (200 knots), was four times that of any American rival. The claim was premature. Problems with its design meant Shkval turned out to be less threatening than hoped (or, from a NATO point of view, less dangerous than feared), even though it is still made and deployed. But supercavitation, the principle upon which its speed depends, has continued to intrigue torpedo designers. Now, noises coming out of the Soviet Union’s successor, Russia, are leading some in the West to worry that the country’s engineers have cracked it.

Life in a bubble

Bubbles of vapour (ie, cavities) form in water wherever there is low pressure, such as on the trailing edges of propeller blades. For engineers, this is usually a problem. In the case of propellers, the cavities erode the blades’ substance. Shkval’s designers, however, sought, by amplifying the phenomenon, to make use of it. They gave their weapon a blunt nose fitted with a flat disc (pictured above) that creates a circular trailing edge as the torpedo moves forward. They also gave it a rocket motor to accelerate it to a speed fast enough for that edge to create a cavity consisting of a single, giant bubble which envelopes the entire torpedo except for the steering fins.

The result is that most of the torpedo experiences no hydrodynamic drag, greatly enhancing its potential velocity. To take advantage of this it is propelled, when the booster rocket runs out of oomph, by a hydrojet—a motor fuelled by a material, such as magnesium, that will burn in water.

Shkval’s problems are threefold. First, it has a short range—around 15km compared with around 50km for America’s principal submarine-launched torpedo, the Mk 48. Second, the hydrojet is noisy, so opponents can hear the weapon coming. Third, it cannot track its target. Most torpedoes use sonar to home in on the ship they are intended to sink. Because Shkval travels inside a bubble, any sonar needs to be mounted on the cavitation disc, which is too small for the purpose. In addition, returning sonar pings would be drowned out by the hydrojet’s noise. As a consequence, Shkval’s only guidance is an autopilot which steers it towards the place where its target was located at the moment of launch, in the hope that the target has not moved.

These deficiencies have not stopped Western countries trying to build supercavitating torpedoes of their own. Diehl, a German firm, announced a programme for such a weapon, Barracuda, in 2004. In 2006 General Dynamics, a big American firm, was commissioned to look into the matter (though its brief did not include the word “torpedo”, referring only to an “undersea transport”) by the country’s Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency.

The firms’ engineers tried to overcome the guidance problem by developing a new type of cavitator. Rather than a flat disc, General Dynamics’ design had a curved surface, increasing the area available for sonar reception. In addition the sonar’s transmitters, mounted on the torpedo’s steering fins, were separate from the receiver, and the interference caused by engine noise was reduced by special filters. In the end, though, these efforts ran into the sand. Barracuda was never completed. General Dynamics’ project was shelved after a year. American naval research into supercavitation in general ended in 2012, though which particular problems proved insurmountable has never been revealed.

Russia, though, has not given up on the idea. In October 2016 plans emerged for a new supercavitating torpedo, Khishchnik (“Predator”). Few details have been released, except that the work is being carried out by Elektropribor, a design bureau specialising in high-precision systems for submarines. Combining a General Dynamics-style sonar with a better motor could, however, result in a weapon that the world’s navies would truly have to fear.

Such a motor is possible, according to Georgiy Savchenko of the Institute of Hydromechanics at Ukraine’s National Academy of Sciences. His supercavitation-research group estimates that with the right fuel (perhaps lithium, which packs more energy per kilogram than magnesium) a new torpedo could have ten times the range of Shkval. It would still be noisy, but, added to its speed, such a combination of range and tracking ability would make it hard to evade. Moreover, there is no theoretical reason why Khishchnik should not travel quite a lot faster than Shkval does. In laboratory tests, supercavitating projectiles have clocked more than 5,000kph.

Kanyon diabolo

The supercavitating design being developed for Khishchnik might also feed into the Kanyon project, a giant nuclear-powered torpedo with a nuclear warhead that is intended to attack coastal targets. In what was either a deliberate leak or a piece of disinformation, this project was revealed to the world in 2015 during a televised meeting between Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, and senior officers of the country’s armed forces. The camera, looking over one of these officers’ shoulders, gave a picture of plans for the putative device, annotated with helpful information such as “speed of travel—185kph”.

The leaked design did not appear to use supercavitation—but if Kanyon is genuine, then thoughts of adding it cannot have escaped its designers. Even if Kanyon is smoke and mirrors, though, Khishchnik seems real enough. Perhaps, this time, aircraft-carrier skippers should be worried.


Navy Recognition. 2017-01-16. Russia developing Khishchnik high-speed torpedo to replace VA-111 Shkval supercavitating torpedo.

The Elektropribor Design Bureau in Saratov is developing a high-speed torpedo dubbed Khishchnik (Russian for ‘raptor’) and designed to replace the Shkval, expert Vladimir Tuchkov writes in an article with the Svobodnaya Pressa online news agency. The blog of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST) has reported that Elektropribor is soon to complete the development of a sophisticated high-speed torpedo. The weapon is designed for replacing the famous Shkval capable of accelerating to 200 knots under water. CAST learnt about that when Elektropribor applied for participating in the 2015 Aircraft Maker of the Year Competition held by the Union of Aviation Industrialists of Russia (UAIR).

Two applications have been submitted, with one of them dedicated to “the execution of the state defense order for developing components of advanced underwater vehicles.” The application continues: “Since 2013, the company has been developing and manufacturing prototypes and testing a component of the underwater missile embodying advanced boundary layer control principles.”

The weapon in question is the Khishchnik, of which very little is known due to the program being very hush-hush.
The torpedo is under development by the company developing components for military planes, and the weapon has been submitted for the competition to be held by UAIR. The thing is, the type of weapons is called rocket-assisted torpedo, and Elektropribor is developing electrical units for its rocket motor and the control systems.

The NII-24 Research Institute (now the Region State Research and Production Company, a subsidiary of Tactical Missiles Corp.) kicked off Shkval’s development in 1960. The requirements specification called for a torpedo with a cruising speed of 200 knots and a range of 20 km for launch via the standard 533-mm torpedo tube.  

The first prototype was made as soon as 1964. The same year, it launched its tests at Lake Issyk-Kul followed by tests in the Black Sea near the city of Feodosiya. The tests failed. The designers developed one model after another that kept on failing to meet the stringent requirements specification. It is the sixth prototype that passed the tests and was cleared for full-rate production. The torpedo entered the Soviet Navy’s inventory in 1977.

Its high speed resulted from cavitation. Research into this field was started by a TsAGI affiliate in the Soviet Union in the late ‘40s. In the late ‘50s, the scientists came up with a harmonious theory of cavitation movement and issued recommendations for applying its principles to high-speed underwater vehicle development. Cavitation boils down to an object (a torpedo in this case) moving inside an air bubble, overcoming the drag caused by the air, rather than by water. A combined-cycle gas turbine unit in the nose section creates the air bubble enveloping the torpedo.

The weapon is propelled by a jet from its solid-propellant rocket motor, rather than by a screw or a waterjet. The Shkval’s power plant is two-stage. First, the solid-propellant motor accelerates the torpedo to the cavitation speed. Then, the sustainer – an underwater ramjet – kicks in.

The development of the underwater ramjet proved to be as difficult as that of the cavitation generator. It is radically different to the ones used in planes and rockets. It uses seawater as actuating medium and oxidizer, while hydroreactive metals are its fuel.

The speed requirement was met, but the range proved to be a mere 13 km. The torpedo’s launch depth was 30 m, and the weapon dashed to its target at 6 m below the surface. Initially, its warhead was nuclear and had a yield of 150 kilotons. The torpedo weighed 2,700 kg and measured 8,200 mm long.

While having a huge speed, the torpedo lacked a seeker. There were two reasons for that. First, maneuvering worth mentioning is impossible at such a speed, because the air bubble will disintegrate. Second, the torpedo is very noisy and it vibrates, which will make the seeker hear nothing but the motor.

Naturally, the heading of the enemy ship subject to sinking as well as its speed and other factors is taken into consideration prior to the Shkval’s launch, i.e. a lead is allowed for, but it is short, because the Shkval covers 13 km inside 130 s – a bit more than 2 min. The torpedo’s baseline model carried a 150-kt nuclear warhead. It was replaced with a high-explosive one weighing about 250 kg, when the time came to slash the nuclear stockpiles. However, the launch of the torpedo exposed the submarine, for the Shkval’s wake gave its position away lock, stock and barrel. The torpedo’s short range was fraught with another problem: to attack an aircraft carrier or other major combatant, the submarine had to enter its antisubmarine coverage area, which reduced its own chances for survival. In other words, although the designers produced high technical characteristics, the weapon proved to be of little use in practical terms. The Shkval was removed from the inventory.

Designers in two more countries echoed the ideas embodied in the Shkval. In 2005, Germany announced the development of the Barracuda supercavitating torpedo with a speed of 400 km/h, and, two years ago, the Iranian chief of naval operations mentioned a torpedo travelling at 320 km/h. However, these are not weapons ready for combat, rather prototypes undergoing the trials.

The Khishchnik is not a version of the Shkval. Serious money has been set aside for its development. The two contractors alone – Elektropribor and the SEPO-ZEM plant in Saratov – co-pursuing the Khishchnik-M program have received more than 1.5 billion rubles ($25 million).

Therefore, it is possible that the torpedo will have a seeker and be able to maneuver and its range and stealth will increase, expert Vladimir Tuchkov writes in the article on the Svobodnaya Pressa news website.