Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Cina, Devoluzione socialismo, India, Materie Prime, Stati Uniti

Iran. L’occidente liberal spera nel petrolio con il Joint Complete Plan of Motion.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-08-26.

Iran 003

Iran, Russia e Turkia. Sono la pulpite purulenta di Joe Biden che li odia di odio impotente.

Brics. Si espandono ad Iran, Argentina, Egitto, Arabia Saudita e Turkia. Club energetico maggiore al mondo.

Iran. Ha chiesto di aderire al Gruppo Brics, Russia, Cina, India, Brasile, Sud Africa.

Iran e Venezuela. Accordo petrolifero totalmente incuranti delle sanzioni Usa.

Dushanbe. Russia e Cina integrano l’Iran nello SCO. Altra débâcle irredimibile di Joe Biden.

Ferrovia Cina, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Iran, Afganistan, più Uzbekistan e Turkmenistan.

Iran Rapidly Expanding Rail Links With Central Asia and Caucasus

* * *

La posizione politica dell’Iran è sfaccettata.

– l’Iran è stato integrato nello SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation)

– l’Iran ha chiesto di aderire al Club dei Brics Plus

– l’Iran ha stretto intensi rapporti politici, economici e militari con la Russia e con la Cina

– l’Iran è integrato nel sistema ferroviario cinese

* * *

A nostro sommesso parere, il ripristino del Joint Complete Plan of Motion, JCPOA, in nulla influirebbe sugli approvvigionamenti di petrolio degli Stati Uniti.

* * * * * * *

Il ritorno del greggio iraniano rimane incerto, ma quando si raggiungerà un accordo per rilanciare l’accordo nucleare del 2015, la produzione della nazione del Golfo Persico potrebbe aumentare in breve tempo e le esportazioni crescere ancora di più. I prolungati negoziati per il ripristino del Joint Complete Plan of Motion (o JCPOA, come viene inteso l’accordo tra l’Iran, i 5 membri permanenti del Consiglio di Sicurezza delle Nazioni Unite, la Germania e l’Unione Europea) sembrano essere prossimi alla conclusione. Tuttavia, nulla è concordato finché non sono stati concordati tutti i pezzi, e ci sono tanti motivi per essere pessimisti quanti per essere ottimisti.

I Paesi dell’UE continuano a importare via mare circa 1.2 milioni di barili al giorno di greggio russo, due terzi della quantità che prendevano prima che le truppe di Mosca invadessero l’Ucraina. Tuttavia, le sanzioni che entreranno in vigore a dicembre limiteranno questo movimento. Le spedizioni dall’Iran possono contribuire a colmare il buco. Quando le sanzioni sono state alleggerite nel 2016, dopo l’adozione del JCPOA, la produzione di greggio iraniano è stata ripristinata in tempi più brevi e in modo più completo di quanto previsto dagli analisti.

All’inizio del 2016, gli analisti intervistati da Bloomberg avevano previsto che la nazione del Golfo Persico avrebbe aumentato la produzione di 400,000 barili al giorno in sei mesi e di 675,000 barili al giorno dopo un anno. In realtà, ha superato le previsioni a 12 mesi della metà e ha aumentato la produzione di quasi 1 milione di barili al giorno, a 3.8 milioni di barili al giorno, entro un anno dall’allentamento delle restrizioni.

La Cina è stata propensa ad accettare le navi cisterna iraniane nei suoi porti per tutta la durata del nuovo periodo di sanzioni, indipendentemente dal fatto che siano autorizzate o meno. Questo non è destinato a cambiare. L’India, un altro grande acquirente di petrolio iraniano fino ad ora, si è dimostrata desiderosa di facilitare le sue nuove importazioni di greggio russo. Anche se il greggio iraniano non si muoverà rapidamente verso gli Stati Uniti, restano i consumatori asiatici, come la Corea del Sud e il Giappone, e quelli europei, che potrebbero richiedere la ricertificazione delle petroliere iraniane, sempre più vecchie.

* * * * * * *

«The return of Iranian crude stays unsure, but when a deal is reached to revive the 2015 nuclear accord, the Persian Gulf nation’s manufacturing may rise shortly and exports will surge even sooner. Prolonged negotiations over the restoration of the Joint Complete Plan of Motion (or JCPOA, because the deal between Iran, the 5 everlasting members of the United Nations Safety Council, Germany and the European Union is understood) appear to be approaching their finish. However nothing’s agreed till all the pieces’s agreed, and there are as many causes to be pessimistic as there are for optimism»

«EU nations are nonetheless importing about 1.2 million barrels a day of Russian crude by sea, two-thirds of the quantity they had been taking earlier than Moscow’s troops invaded Ukraine. However sanctions on account of come into impact in December will curb that movement. Shipments from Iran may assist fill the hole. When sanctions had been eased in 2016, after the JCPOA was adopted, Iran’s crude manufacturing was restored extra shortly and extra fully than analysts had predicted.»

«Initially of 2016, analysts surveyed by Bloomberg anticipated the Persian Gulf nation to lift manufacturing by 400,000 barrels a day in six months and 675,000 barrels a day after a yr. In actual fact, it exceeded the 12-month forecast in half that point and boosted output by virtually 1 million barrels a day, to 3.8 million barrels a day, inside a yr of restrictions being eased.»

«China has been keen to just accept Iranian tankers at its ports all through the newest interval of sanctions, whether or not licensed or not. That’s not prone to change. India, one other large purchaser of Iranian oil up to now, has proven itself keen to facilitate its new imports of Russian crude. Even when Iranian crude isn’t going to movement to the US anytime quickly, that also leaves Asian consumers corresponding to South Korea and Japan and people in Europe who would possibly require Iran’s growing older tankers to be recertified»

* * * * * * *


Opinion: Iran’s Return Would Fill a Russia-Shaped Hole in Oil Supplies

The return of Iranian crude stays unsure, but when a deal is reached to revive the 2015 nuclear accord, the Persian Gulf nation’s manufacturing may rise shortly and exports will surge even sooner.

Prolonged negotiations over the restoration of the Joint Complete Plan of Motion (or JCPOA, because the deal between Iran, the 5 everlasting members of the United Nations Safety Council, Germany and the European Union is understood) appear to be approaching their finish. The US is inspecting the Iranian response to a “ultimate” accord tabled by EU. The reply from Tehran has been described as constructive.

However nothing’s agreed till all the pieces’s agreed, and there are as many causes to be pessimistic as there are for optimism. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., for one, sees a stalemate as “mutually helpful.”

For oil consumers, although, the return of Iranian crude to a market that’s about to face an enormous lack of Russian barrels can’t come quickly sufficient. EU nations are nonetheless importing about 1.2 million barrels a day of Russian crude by sea, two-thirds of the quantity they had been taking earlier than Moscow’s troops invaded Ukraine. However sanctions on account of come into impact in December will curb that movement. Shipments from Iran may assist fill the hole.

When sanctions had been eased in 2016, after the JCPOA was adopted, Iran’s crude manufacturing was restored extra shortly and extra fully than analysts had predicted. With no proof of harm to grease fields or services, that feat may be repeated.

Initially of 2016, analysts surveyed by Bloomberg anticipated the Persian Gulf nation to lift manufacturing by 400,000 barrels a day in six months and 675,000 barrels a day after a yr. In actual fact, it exceeded the 12-month forecast in half that point and boosted output by virtually 1 million barrels a day, to 3.8 million barrels a day, inside a yr of restrictions being eased.

The ramp-up in exports was even faster, with big volumes of crude saved in onshore tanks and ships round Iran’s coast able to be moved as quickly as consumers returned. The nation is in an identical place at this time, with an estimated 100 million barrels of crude and condensate in storage that may be launched onto the market virtually instantly.

The Worldwide Power Company cautioned, again in March, that “it will probably take many months to completely off-load the oil” as a result of Iranian tankers would “must be re-certified and insured.” I’m unsure they’re proper.

China has been keen to just accept Iranian tankers at its ports all through the newest interval of sanctions, whether or not licensed or not. That’s not prone to change. India, one other large purchaser of Iranian oil up to now, has proven itself keen to facilitate its new imports of Russian crude by shortly certifying Russian tankers shunned elsewhere. If Iran is keen to compete with Russia for the Indian market, I’ve little question that the federal government in New Delhi will do what’s essential to make the shipments occur.

Even when Iranian crude isn’t going to movement to the US anytime quickly, that also leaves Asian consumers corresponding to South Korea and Japan and people in Europe who would possibly require Iran’s growing older tankers to be recertified. Wanting again to the interval when the JCPOA was in operation, between 2016 and 2018, virtually not one of the deliveries of Iranian crude to Europe or Japan was made on an Iranian tanker. So it appears probably that, simply as in 2016, Iran’s crude will return to the market extra shortly than most analysts count on.

If it does, it is going to present welcome aid for refiners within the Mediterranean, who took round 600,000 barrels a day of Iranian crude final time round. They danger dropping an identical quantity of Russian barrels when EU sanctions come into power and, whereas they’re not a precise match for one another, most Iranian crude could be an inexpensive substitute for Urals export grade.

A fast return of saved barrels, adopted by a fast ramp-up in manufacturing from shuttered wells, may see Iranian crude filling a Russia-shaped gap in Mediterranean crude balances. Now all we want is to get deal accomplished.

Pubblicità