Pubblicato in: Agricoltura, Brasile, India, Stati Uniti

Agricoltura. I costi di fertilizzanti, combustibili e sementi sono raddoppiati, generando inflazione che genera inflazione.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-03-22.

2022-03-22__ Fertilizzanti 001

“L’urea è aumentata del 143% a quasi 930 dollari la tonnellata, mentre i costi del diesel sono aumentati del 133% a 4,43 dollari al gallone”

“I costi alimentari globali sono balzati a un record a febbraio e sono aumentati di circa il 40% rispetto a due anni fa”

“I costi per acro sono saliti dai 700 – 850 Usd agli attuali 1,150”

“e le sanzioni sul produttore chiave Bielorussia hanno contribuito al rally”

“E ora la Russia, il più grande esportatore di urea e il numero 2 per la potassa, è sanzionata nelle esportazioni di fertilizzanti, minacciando una carenza globale”

2022-03-22__ Fertilizzanti 002

* * * * * *

«The price of everything that goes into producing crops is surging, threatening to further fan global food inflation»

«Food production costs were already high. The pandemic snarled supply chains, making it more difficult — and expensive — to get parts and supplies that are vital for growing crops»

«Then Russia’s invasion of Ukraine took things to another level, sending markets soaring for fertilizers and for the fuels needed to run farm machinery»

«Inflation is so rampant that even with rising food prices, farmers are facing increasingly tough margins»

«But the current, dizzying surge in crude oil is having a pincer-like effect, and for the first time ever, he’s considering winding down the business»

«Global food costs jumped to a record in February and are up about 40% from two years ago»

«Oil’s surge past $100 a barrel has sent diesel futures in Europe and the U.S. to the highest in decades»

«Increasing fuel costs will raise expenses for farmers who have to run a lot of heavy machinery for sowing, tilling and harvesting»

«It will also be costlier to heat barns that house livestock»

«Prices for fertilizers, used to grow practically all crops, have also risen dramatically in the past year»

«A crunch for natural gas supply, elevated freight rates, tariffs, extreme weather and sanctions on key producer Belarus all contributed to the rally»

«And now Russia, the biggest exporter of urea and No. 2 for potash, is seeking to end fertilizer exports, threatening a global shortage»

«The Green Markets North American Fertilizer Price Index has doubled in the last 12 months to reach a record»

«If farmers can’t keep up with their higher costs, they could be forced to pull back on production, leaving the global food-supply situation even more precarious»

«the budgets about $700 to $850 per acre for his input costs …. This year, he expects that number to reach $1,150»

«are paying triple what they did two years ago for anhydrous ammonia, a widely-used nitrogen fertilizer»

«Urea has surged 143% to almost $930 a ton, while diesel costs are up 133% to $4.43 a gallon»

«Agriculture accounts for about a fifth of the economy in India, where nearly 60% of its 1.4 billion people depend on farming, directly or indirectly, for their livelihood»

«The country is the world’s second-biggest grower of sugar, wheat, rice and cotton»

«Many farmers in Brazil, the world’s top soybean exporter, aren’t waiting to see if their costs start to pull back. Instead, they’re buying up fertilizers and other inputs now, rather than taking a gamble»

* * * * * * *

Usa. Dal 23 settembre 2021 ha perso 9,400 miliardi Usd di capitalizzazione.

Le sanzioni imposte da Joe Biden e dai paesi del blocco europeo evidenziano delle ripercussioni e dei costi immani.

Ma se 9,400 miliardi di capitalizzazione persi sono una cifra stroboscopica, ancor peggio si preannuncia il rincaro delle materie prime e degli alimentari. Codesto rincaro è strutturale e genera inflazione che flagella l’enclave liberal occidentale al punto tale che la Fed è stata costretta ad aumentare i tassi di interesse.

Di questo passo l’enclave liberal occidentale si avvia al suicidio.

E ciò sarebbe il meno: lo spettro della miseria e della fame si sta concretizzando a livello mondiale.

* * * * * * *


Soaring Prices for Everything Used to Make Food Brings More Inflation

The price of everything that goes into producing crops is surging, threatening to further fan global food inflation.

Food production costs were already high. The pandemic snarled supply chains, making it more difficult — and expensive — to get parts and supplies that are vital for growing crops. Then Russia’s invasion of Ukraine took things to another level, sending markets soaring for fertilizers and for the fuels needed to run farm machinery. Inflation is so rampant that even with rising food prices, farmers are facing increasingly tough margins.

That’s the problem for Eddie Smith, who has been growing mangoes in Australia for 16 years. He estimates his costs have about doubled in that time. To mitigate the squeeze over the years, he’s taken steps like miniaturizing his trees and reducing diesel consumption. But the current, dizzying surge in crude oil is having a pincer-like effect, and for the first time ever, he’s considering winding down the business.

“Everybody’s doing their bit to try and reduce their input costs, but at the same time everything goes up,” he said from his 3,000 tree farm in Carnarvon, on Australia’s far western coast. “Fuel goes up, water goes up, fertilizer goes up, labor goes up, and I can’t see an end to that at this point.”

The timing couldn’t be worse. The world was already contending with rising hunger after the pandemic’s blow and droughts that parched crops in key growing regions. Global food costs jumped to a record in February and are up about 40% from two years ago.

Things are so dire that the planet could be facing a “tipping point” when it comes to long-term stability for global food supplies, according to Beth Bechdol, deputy director-general of the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization.

                         Fuel, Fertilizers.

Oil’s surge past $100 a barrel has sent diesel futures in Europe and the U.S. to the highest in decades. Increasing fuel costs will raise expenses for farmers who have to run a lot of heavy machinery for sowing, tilling and harvesting. It will also be costlier to heat barns that house livestock.

Prices for fertilizers, used to grow practically all crops, have also risen dramatically in the past year. A crunch for natural gas supply, elevated freight rates, tariffs, extreme weather and sanctions on key producer Belarus all contributed to the rally. And now Russia, the biggest exporter of urea and No. 2 for potash, is seeking to end fertilizer exports, threatening a global shortage. The Green Markets North American Fertilizer Price Index has doubled in the last 12 months to reach a record.

Supplies for seeds and other chemicals like pesticides are also “extremely tight,” Corteva Inc. Chief Executive Officer Chuck Magro said at a recent conference. And prices for tractors made by companies like Deere & Co. are on the rise.

If farmers can’t keep up with their higher costs, they could be forced to pull back on production, leaving the global food-supply situation even more precarious.

                         U.S.

Chris Edgington grows corn and soybeans on 3,000 acres near St. Ansgar, Iowa. During a typical year, he budgets about $700 to $850 per acre for his input costs. This year, he expects that number to reach $1,150. And “a lot of that is borrowed money,” he said. For now, he expects the rally in grain prices will help make up for his larger expenses, but, he warns, the situation could get “pretty, pretty tight.”

Farmers in Iowa, the biggest U.S. state for corn, are paying triple what they did two years ago for anhydrous ammonia, a widely-used nitrogen fertilizer. Urea has surged 143% to almost $930 a ton, while diesel costs are up 133% to $4.43 a gallon, according to March figures from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

“None of them individually are a total game-changer, but when you add all these prices together, we’re going to handle more dollars for the same opportunity of margin that we had a year ago,” Edgington said.

“We have a lot more risk. We have a lot of dollars invested. And we’re just barely going to breakeven,” he said.

                         India.

Agriculture accounts for about a fifth of the economy in India, where nearly 60% of its 1.4 billion people depend on farming, directly or indirectly, for their livelihood. The country is the world’s second-biggest grower of sugar, wheat, rice and cotton.

Birpal Singh, 49, a farmer in the state of Uttar Pradesh, grows rice and wheat on a little more than 2 acres. He uses diesel to run the pumps that water his crops, and it’s also used in tilling machinery. Prices for the fuel have risen more than 30% in the country’s capital New Delhi since 2020, according to data from state-run Indian Oil Corp. He has to till his land four or five times before it’s ready for crop seeding. Plus he’s having to spend more on fertilizer, if he’s lucky enough to find enough supplies.

Further south in Maharashtra state, Murlidhar Patil, 75, grows guava, wheat and soybeans with his brother. Since the start of the pandemic, food inflation has meant that demand is falling for the fruit he grows. While prices may be up at the market, Patil is getting paid less for his crops, which now fetch as little as 25,000 rupees ($330) annually per acre, 60,000 rupees three or four years ago, he said.

“We are suffering a lot,” Patil said. “Prices of all our inputs have risen, but rates of my produce haven’t risen. And at the same time labor costs have also risen. It’s really painful.”

                         Brazil.

Many farmers in Brazil, the world’s top soybean exporter, aren’t waiting to see if their costs start to pull back. Instead, they’re buying up fertilizers and other inputs now, rather than taking a gamble.

That’s the case for Eduardo Zorzi, manager for Bavaresco Group, which farms more than 20,000 acres in Sorriso, Mato Grosso. It’s not just concerns about prices that led to his decision, he said he’s also worried about actually getting the supplies he needs in time.

“With the crazy volatility we are seeing, I decided not to wait any longer and bought my fertilizers for the upcoming soybean crop,” he said.

Leandro Bianchini took similar action. Bianchini is the commercial supervisor for Coacen, the largest co-op in Mato Grosso that plants more than 1 million acres a year, and he didn’t want to take any chances for the next soybean harvest. So he’s already purchased all the inputs needed for the planting season, which doesn’t start until mid-September. Now he’s even looking ahead to the 2023 winter corn crop that will be sown next March.

“There are still lots of unknowns on those costs, and grain prices are not as high as costs for next year,” Bianchini said.

* * * * * * *

Italia. Jan22. Prezzi medi all’ingrosso del comparto agricolo per categorie.

Italia. Gen22. Ortaggi. Prezzi medi all’ingrosso. L’inflazione è al lavoro.

Italia. Dec21. Prezzi Medi alla Pompa di Benzina e Gasolio. Iva ed accise al 60.28%.

Ortaggi. Dec21. Prezzi all’ingrosso. Variazione mediana +21.875% YoY.

Stagno. Dec21. Prezzi Ingrosso 40,351 Usd/Ton, +91.03% anno su anno.

Fertilizzanti. Nov21. Prezzi all’ingrosso. Fosfato di diammonio +102.1% YoY.

America. Nov21. Indice dei Prezzi al Consumo +6.8%. Nel Dec20 valeva +1.4%. Carne + 20.9%.

Germania. Prezzi alimentari +16.3% su novembre 2020. Ecco la Fame. – Destatis.

Italia. Nov21. Mercato Interno. Prezzi Produzione +27.1% YoY. Energia -74.8% YoY.

Fertilizzanti. Anno21. Prezzi all’ingrosso. Fosfato di diammonio +88.43% YoY.

Glicerina. Nov21. Prezzo all’ingrosso aumentato di quasi il 100% anno su anno.

Fertilizzanti. Si prospetta una carestia a livello mondiale. La fame proprio ci mancava.

Italia. Oct21. Ingrosso. Grano duro a 783.2 € per tonnellata, +92.1% anno su anno. Un mese fa +74%.

Burro. Anno21. Ingrosso. Costi al caseificio in Italia su del 58.99%, anno su anno.

Italia. Oct21. Prezzi medi all’ingrosso degli ortaggi. Molti i rincari sopra il 40% anno su anno.

Italia. Oct21. Prezzi medi all’ingrosso di Sardine ed Acciughe. Cibo solo per Faraoni ricchi.

Italia. Sept21. Prezzi medi all’ingrosso al caseificio dei formaggi.

Italia. Ott21. Gamberi rosa. Listino Prezzi Ingrosso. Prezzi stellari.

Italia. Dacci oggi il nostro pane quotidiano. Listino prezzi. La fame si avvicina.

Italia. Settembre21. Prezzi medi degli ortaggi all’origine. Roba da straricchi.

Italia. Sept21. Olio di oliva. Listino costi produzione. – Inflazione.

Mondo. Grano duro. Produzione dimezzata e costi cresciuti del 74% anno su anno.

Pubblicato in: Agricoltura, Devoluzione socialismo, Russia

Russia blocca i porti ukraini e con essi l’export di olio di girasole. In Italia scorte solo per venti giorni.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-03-07.

2022-03-05__ Girasole 001

«L’olio di semi di girasole è l’olio estratto dai semi del girasole (Helianthus annuus L.) e da cultivar o varietà mutanti sviluppate appositamente per modificarne la composizione in acidi grassi.

L’olio di semi di girasole contiene trigliceridi, con un elevato contenuto di acido linoleico. L’alta percentuale di acidi grassi polinsaturi lo rende particolarmente suscettibile all’ossidazione e all’irrancidimento.

Nel 1976 è stata sviluppata in Russia la prima varietà a libera impollinazione mutante, Pervenets, con alto contenuto di acido oleico. La mutazione, ottenuta chimicamente con dimetilsolfato (DMS), comportava un tenore di acido oleico anche superiore al 70%. Negli anni successivi con tecniche di miglioramento genetico tradizionali, negli USA sono stati prodotti molti ibridi, in cui è rintracciabile il gene alto oleico della popolazione “Pervenets”. Con il nome generico di NuSun le cultivar nordamericane a medio contenuto in acido oleico hanno raggiunto in USA il milione di acri coltivati (circa 405000 ha coltivati). Nonostante siano state sviluppate molte cultivar sia con mutagenesi chimica sia con l’uso delle radiazioni, si considerano varietà naturali non essendo transgeniche. Con mutazioni transgeniche è possibile, come si è fatto per l’olio di colza, realizzare cultivar derivati dal girasole in grado di produrre oli con una specifica distribuzione di acidi grassi.» [Fonte]

* * * * * * *

«La crisi ucraina colpisce duramente anche l’industria degli oli da semi, in particolare nel segmento del girasole»

«Entro un mese, con l’attuale andamento dei consumi, le scorte sono destinate a finire»

«La chiusura dei porti sul Mar Nero ha bloccato gli scambi dei due maggiori produttori mondiali di girasole, l’Ucraina e la Russia, che riforniscono l’industria europea, Italia compresa, esclusivamente via mare»

«Le navi che trasportano olio o semi di girasole sono tutte ferme, in particolare presso Mariupol e Odessa, centri nevralgici del commercio via mare»

«Il girasole è la base essenziale di numerosi filoni produttivi, alimentari e non, dell’economia italiana»

«L’industria italiana di spremitura produce solo 250mila tonnellate di olio grezzo»

«In particolare il consumo annuo di olio di girasole si aggira sulle 770mila tonnellate»

«la quota di import di olio grezzo dall’Ucraina è cresciuta, passando dal 54% al 63%»

«sono almeno 50mila le tonnellate di olio grezzo di girasole ferme nei porti ucraini e mai arrivate in Italia»

* * * * * * *

L’Ukraina produceva circa 5.148 milioni di tonnellate di olio di girasole, mentre la Russia ne produce 4.642 milioni di tonnellate.

Sommate, le due fonti di produzione hanno coperto circa il 70% del fabbisogno mondiale.

L’Italia importava ogni anno da Ukraina e Russia 770,000 tonnellate di olio di semi di girasole.

Ma con le sanzioni e con il blocco dei porti ukraini l’import dell’olio di girasole è soppresso.

Le industrie nazionali hanno scorte per venti – trenta giorni, dopo di che ad una crisi biblica del settore alimentare.

Le sanzioni di Biden stanno colpendo duramente l’Italia, il cui governo è stato fedele sostenitore delle sanzioni americane.

* * * * * * *


Russia e Ucraina rappresentano il 75% dell’export di olio di girasole mondiale

La crisi ucraina colpisce duramente anche l’industria degli oli da semi, in particolare nel segmento del girasole. Entro un mese, con l’attuale andamento dei consumi, le scorte sono destinate a finire. A sottolineare la complessità della situazione è ASSITOL, l’Associazione Italiana dell’industria olearia, aderente a Federalimentare e Confindustria.

“Questo conflitto – avverte Carlo Tampieri, presidente del gruppo Oli da semi dell’Associazione – sta facendo molto male al nostro settore, oltre che ai consumatori, perché rende difficile l’approvvigionamento di materia prima e, di conseguenza, l’attività delle singole imprese”. La chiusura dei porti sul Mar Nero ha bloccato gli scambi dei due maggiori produttori mondiali di girasole, l’Ucraina e la Russia, che riforniscono l’industria europea, Italia compresa, esclusivamente via mare. Le navi che trasportano olio o semi di girasole sono tutte ferme, in particolare presso Mariupol e Odessa, centri nevralgici del commercio via mare.

Il girasole è la base essenziale di numerosi filoni produttivi, alimentari e non, dell’economia italiana. Si va dall’olio, apprezzato dall’industria alimentare e in ambito bakery, alle farine per uso zootecnico e alle oleine, fondamentali per l’industria oleochimica ed energetica, ad esempio per il biodiesel, il comparto industriale incrocia settori diversi, ma ugualmente importanti per la nostra economia.

In particolare il consumo annuo di olio di girasole si aggira sulle 770mila tonnellate. E’ impiegato nella produzione di conserve, salse, maionese, condimenti spalmabili, tutti prodotti destinati alla grande distribuzione alimentare. Inoltre, il mondo Horeca lo predilige per le fritture. L’industria italiana di spremitura produce solo 250mila tonnellate di olio grezzo: ecco perché il comparto si rivolge soprattutto all’Ucraina che, insieme alla Russia rappresenta il 60% della produzione mondiale di olio di girasole e circa il 75% dell’export mondiale di questo prodotto, per reperire i quantitativi mancanti. Secondo dati elaborati da ASSITOL, a partire dal 2015, grazie all’aumento dei consumi, la quota di import di olio grezzo dall’Ucraina è cresciuta, passando dal 54% al 63%.

“Questi dati fotografano il peso delle importazioni di girasole– sottolinea Tampieri – e la difficoltà, per il comparto, di muoversi in un contesto di guerra, che vede bloccati i trasporti non soltanto da e per l’Ucraina, ma da tutto l’Est Europa”. Dall’inizio del conflitto ad oggi, sono almeno 50mila le tonnellate di olio grezzo di girasole ferme nei porti ucraini e mai arrivate in Italia. “Se la guerra cessasse nei prossimi giorni – osserva ancora Tampieri – tornare alla normalità sarebbe comunque complesso. Tuttavia, la situazione potrebbe complicarsi ulteriormente, se il conflitto dovesse proseguire, perché salterebbe la semina, prevista in primavera”.

Dalla grande distribuzione commerciale, dove l’olio di girasole ha uno spazio importante, alla lecitina, impiegata nel settore dolciario e in panificazione, fino ai mangimi per la zootecnia, sono tanti i settori coinvolti direttamente dalle difficoltà di approvvigionamento. Per riuscire a diversificare, almeno in parte, le forniture, le aziende chiedono tempo e, soprattutto, di evitare misure che possano colpire le imprese olearie, già in notevole difficoltà.

“Invitiamo le istituzioni ad agire con ragionevolezza – rilancia il presidente del gruppo Oli da semi -. Eventuali sanzioni, come i dazi o, peggio, i divieti sull’import, risulterebbero dannose non soltanto per il nostro settore, ma per tutta la filiera agroalimentare italiana, provocando al tempo stesso un forte contraccolpo negativo sull’Ucraina”.

Pubblicato in: Armamenti, Russia

Ukraina. Les jeux sont faits, rien ne va plus. I Russi controllano tutti i loro porti.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-03-04.

Ukraina 002

I porti sul Mar Nero, Odessa in primis, e quelli sul Mar d’Azov erano vitali per i commerci dell’Ukraina, buona esportatrice di granaglie e prodotti estrattivi.

Senza l’accesso ad essi, l’Ukraina si riduce ad uno staterello asfittico, che non val nemmeno la pena di essere occupato.

Nel conflitto russo-ukraino è il fronte sud quello cruciale.

Ma, facciamo attenzione!

Una volta precluso l’accesso, i Russi non hanno nemmeno tanta voglia di procedere.

Questa strategia russa si è consolidata nei secoli, ed i tedeschi la hanno sperimentata sulla loro pelle a Stalingrado, ma senza saperne poi trarre l’insegnamento.

Infine, si consideri come l’interno della Ukraina sia un grande serbatoio di potenziali migranti da riversare copiosamente nella Unione Europea.

The European Union prepares for millions of refugees from Ukraine

«Estimates by the United Nations and refugee organizations put the number of people fleeing the Russian invasion at 4 to 7 million.»

Anche i rifugiati possono essere utilizzati come una arma.

* * * * * * *


Ships hit by Russian missiles near Odessa port: Ukraine

«As Russia continued its strikes on Ukraine, the Zelenksy government said a Moldovan-flagged chemical tanker and a Panamanian-flagged cargo ship was hit by missiles from Russian warships near the Odessa port in the Black Sea. 

Ukraine’s defence forces said it had “repulsed” an attack on the capital’s Victory Avenue.

Ukraine President Zelensky had said on Friday that Russian “sabotage” groups had entered capital Kyiv as Russian defence forces conducted heavy bombing on the capital.»

* * * * * * *


The Azov Sea is slowly becoming a Russian lake, but Ukraine’s Mariupol still resists massive attacks

«Mariupol, Ukraine (PortSEurope) March 1, 2022 – Six days after the start of Russian invasion in Ukraine, the Azov Sea moved a step closer to become a Russian lake under Moscow’s full control, after Russian media reported that the whole Ukrainian coast of Azov is under occupation army control. But sources from the administration of Mariupol claimed mid-day that the city is still resisting Russian»

* * * * * * *


Ukraine can’t use its Black and Azov Sea ports after Russian invasion; Commodities’ export affected

«Mariupol, Ukraine (PortSEurope) February 26 – Ukraine, invaded by Russia on February 24, became commercially a landlocked country after Russia blocked the Azov Sea, and Ukraine closed all its Black Sea ports for commercial shipping. Ukraine is one of the world’s biggest grain and metals exporter with its corn sold to Europe and China, while its wheat is bought by the Middle East countries, North»

Pubblicato in: Geopolitica Europea

Donbas. Ordinata la mobilizzazione generale dai 18 ai 55 anni.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-02-21.

Donbas 002

«Pro-Russian separatist leader calls for full military mobilization in Ukraine’s Donetsk region»

«Russia claims the surge of forces, which began in the autumn, has always been for military exercises and that it poses no threat to Ukraine or any other nation»

«A separatist leader in Ukraine ordered a full military mobilisation on Saturday amid ongoing tension between Moscow and Kiev»

«Denis Pushilin, the head of the pro-Russian separatist government in the Donetsk region has signed a decree on general mobilization»

«The People’s Council of the DPR has approved the decree of the head of the DPR on general mobilization»

«The Russian-backed leaders of Ukraine’s two breakaway regions have announced a general mobilisation, spurring fears of a further escalation in fighting in the ex-Soviet country»

«I urge my fellow citizens who are in the reserves to come to military conscription offices. Today I signed a decree on general mobilisation»

«I appeal to all the men in the republic who can hold weapons to defend their families, their children, wives, mothers, … Together we will achieve the coveted victory that we all need»

«Pasechnik said all men aged 18 to 55 were banned from leaving the area following the general mobilisation order»

* * * * * * *

In effetti, i russi non hanno gran bisogno di entrare in Ukraina, visto che ci sono già.

La popolazione del Donbas è russa e mantiene la lingua russa: forma una entità di fatto da tempo separata dall’Ukraina ed ora anche in grado di competere militarmente.

Impredicibili le possibili conseguenze.

La più probabile potrebbe essere una guerra civile che potrebbe portare al crollo dell’attuale regime ukraino, aprendo la strada ad interventi umanitari pacificatori.

In ogni caso, però, questa mossa spiazza Joe Biden e l’intelligence americana.

* * * * * * *


Pro-Russian separatist leader calls for full military mobilization in Ukraine’s Donetsk region.

Russia claims the surge of forces, which began in the autumn, has always been for military exercises and that it poses no threat to Ukraine or any other nation.

* * *

Donetsk: A separatist leader in Ukraine ordered a full military mobilisation on Saturday amid ongoing tension between Moscow and Kiev, according to media report.

Denis Pushilin, the head of the pro-Russian separatist government in the Donetsk region has signed a decree on general mobilization.

“The People’s Council of the DPR has approved the decree of the head of the DPR on general mobilization,” Sputnik News Agency reported citing a council member Vladislav Berdichevsky.

Russia’s recent build-up of around 150,000 troops just over the border from the Donbas region in the east, in Belarus to the north and Crimea to the south, which began in the autumn, has escalated tensions.

Russia claims the surge of forces has always been for military exercises and that it poses no threat to Ukraine or any other nation, but has refused to offer any real explanation for the biggest build-up of military might in Europe since the Cold War.

The US Embassy in Kiev informed on Thursday that Russia’s shelling of Stanytsia Luhanska in Ukrainian government-controlled territory in Donbas hit a kindergarten, injured two teachers, and knocked out power in the village.

“Russia’s shelling of Stanytsia Luhanska in Ukrainian government-controlled territory in Donbas hit a kindergarten, injured two teachers, and knocked out power in the village. The aggressor in Donbas is clear – Russia,” tweeted US Embassy in Kiev.

Meanwhile, the Russian Emergencies Ministry told Sputnik today that Rostov Region has opened 15 border crossings for refugees from the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas.

Defence officials in Moscow have said since Tuesday that troops and military hardware are pulling back, having completed some of the drills. Western intelligence officials say, on the contrary, that Russia has moved roughly 7,000 more troops close to the borders in recent days. (ANI)

* * * * * * *


Separatists in Ukraine order ‘general mobilisation’ amid shelling

Announcement comes as Kyiv says a Ukrainian soldier was killed in shelling by rebels in the east of the country.

* * *

The Russian-backed leaders of Ukraine’s two breakaway regions have announced a general mobilisation, spurring fears of a further escalation in fighting in the ex-Soviet country.

The announcements on Saturday came as pro-Russian rebels and Ukraine accused each other of fresh attacks, and Kyiv said a Ukrainian soldier had been killed in separatist shelling.

“I urge my fellow citizens who are in the reserves to come to military conscription offices. Today I signed a decree on general mobilisation,” Denis Pushilin, the leader of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic, said in a video statement.

Pushilin claimed his region’s forces had prevented attacks he said were planned by the Ukrainian security services, and that the Ukrainian army had launched attacks – accusations that Ukrainian officials have vehemently denied.

“I appeal to all the men in the republic who can hold weapons to defend their families, their children, wives, mothers,” Pushilin added. ”Together we will achieve the coveted victory that we all need.”

The leader of the Luhansk separatist region, Leonid Pasechnik, followed Donetsk in issuing a general mobilisation order to prepare for “repelling aggression”.

Pasechnik said all men aged 18 to 55 were banned from leaving the area following the general mobilisation order.

Kyiv has repeatedly denied any plans to regain control of separatist-held areas using force or of the Crimean peninsula, which was annexed by Moscow in 2014.

Western leaders have for weeks raised the alarm over a build-up of Moscow’s army around Ukraine with Washington warning that an imminent attack could take place.

Kyiv said a Ukrainian soldier was killed on Saturday in clashes with separatists.

“As a result of a shelling attack, one Ukrainian soldier received a fatal shrapnel wound,” the joint military command for east Ukraine reported.

The Ukrainian military said on its Facebook page that it had recorded 19 ceasefire violations by the separatists since the start of the day compared with 66 cases over the previous 24 hours.

Separatists opened fire on more than 20 settlements, using heavy artillery, which has been banned by Minsk agreements, the military said.

More than 14,000 people have been killed in fighting between Ukraine’s army and Moscow-supported separatists since fighting broke out in 2014.

Meanwhile, evacuations of towns and villages in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions continued. According to the Donetsk separatists early on Saturday, more than 6,000 people have already been brought to safety, including 2,400 children. Shelters are ready for these people in the southern Russian region of Rostov.

The separatist leaders had called for people to flee on Friday, justifying the appeal with a threatened attack by Ukrainian government troops.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime, Russia, Unione Europea

Blocco Europeo. Gelo in arrivo. Russia riduce le forniture. Gas +600% YoY.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-12-24.

2021-12-22__ EU Gas 001

Le quotazioni del natural gas sono differenti se fornite per i mercati internazionali oppure per quelli europei.

Gran quota delle differenze di prezzo è dovuta al fatto che nel blocco europeo la fornitura di questa materia prima è sottoposta ad una tassazione destinata a finanziare i piani Grüne.

Alla attuale crescita dei prezzi europei si deve aggiungere una meteorologia inclemente, foriera di gelo, la riduzione del gas che i russi immettono dei gasdotti e, da ultimo ma non certo per ultimo, il fatto che gli stati europei stanno chiudendo le centrali atomiche, proprio adesso.

La ciliegina sulla torta è costituita dalla bassa resa dell’eolico in situazioni di gelo.

Come risultato finale il TTF Gas registra un incremento del 668.58% anno su anno.

* * * * * * *

«Europe is bracing for energy shortages as freezing weather sets in, boosting demand and sending prices surging with no relief in sight»

«Temperatures are forecast to fall below zero degrees Celsius in several European capitals this week, straining electricity grids already coping with low wind speeds and severe nuclear outages in France»

«To make matters worse, Russia is limiting natural gas flows through a major transit route to Germany Monday after capping supplies over the weekend»

«Energy prices have spiraled this year, with European gas surging some 600%»

«The region’s benchmark gas contract climbed as much as 8.8% Monday, while German year-ahead power, a benchmark in Europe, rose as much as 3.1% to a new record of 250 euros ($282) a megawatt-hour»

«The French contract jumped as much as 9% to a an all-time high»

«In France, day-ahead power rallied to 442.88 euros per megawatt-hour»

«The German contract also soared to the highest on record. Carbon permits jumped 6.2% to 77.84 euros a ton»

«Rising prices have fueled inflation, a headache for policy makers already contending with the spread of the omicron virus variant just before the holiday season»

«Geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine could also make things worse, with a potential invasion likely to send prices even higher»

«Europe could experience rolling blackouts in case of a cold winter»

«That was before Electricite de France SA said it was halting reactors accounting for 10% of the nation’s nuclear capacity, leaving the region at the mercy of the weather at the height of winter in January and February»

«The futures pared some of the gains after Gazprom PJSC booked about 21% of the Yamal-Europe pipeline to Germany for January at a month-ahead capacity auction Monday»

«→→ With nuclear outages biting, electricity producers will have to use more gas to keep the lights on ←←»

«Russia plans for gas flows into Germany via the key Yamal-Europe pipeline to remain capped, potentially forcing Europe to rely on its already depleted inventories»

«Only 4% of capacity was allocated for Monday to send gas through Germany’s Mallnow station»

«Meanwhile, wind power is expected to stay low in Germany»

* * * * * * *


Blocco Europeo. Prezzi alla produzione, PPI, +21.9% anno su anno. Europa kaputt. – Eurostat.

Germania si oppone alla Francia. Il nucleare non sarebbe Grüne.

Germania. Oct21. Manifatturiero. Dipendenti -0.5%, ore lavorate -2.9% anno su anno.

Germania. Wholesales Prices +16.6% rispetto al novembre 2020. – Destatis.

Germania. Prezzi alimentari +16.3% su novembre 2020. Ecco la Fame. – Destatis.

Germania.2021Q3. Il 56.9% delle energia elettrica deriva bruciando carbone importato.

* * * * * * *

A tutto questo sconfortante quadro, se ne aggiunga un fattore forse ancor più micidiale.

All’atto di stabilire i prezzi di vendita, il venditore deve calcolare quanto gli costerà ricomprare ai nuovi prezzi il materiale venduto. Ma in un regime inflattivo al 21.9%, i costi di ricarico salgono in eguale misura, maggiorata di un margine di sicurezza previsionale.

In altri termini, il fornitore deve far pagare in anticipo la inflazione futura.

Questo è un espetto deleterio del processo inflattivo, che fa aumentare sia i prezzi alla produzione sia quelli al consumo, in una spirale senza fine.

* * * * * * *


European Energy Prices Soar as a Deep Freeze Arrives.

– Power prices surge from France to Germany after EDF’s outages

– Gas bookings show Russian flows may remain capped in January

* * *

Europe is bracing for energy shortages as freezing weather sets in, boosting demand and sending prices surging with no relief in sight.

Temperatures are forecast to fall below zero degrees Celsius in several European capitals this week, straining electricity grids already coping with low wind speeds and severe nuclear outages in France. To make matters worse, Russia is limiting natural gas flows through a major transit route to Germany Monday after capping supplies over the weekend. The route is set to be only partially used in January.

Energy prices have spiraled this year, with European gas surging some 600%. The region’s benchmark gas contract climbed as much as 8.8% Monday, while German year-ahead power, a benchmark in Europe, rose as much as 3.1% to a new record of 250 euros ($282) a megawatt-hour. The French contract jumped as much as 9% to a an all-time high.

Short-term electricity also jumped, along with the cost of using dirtier energy sources in Europe. In France, day-ahead power rallied to 442.88 euros per megawatt-hour, the highest since 2009, in an auction Monday. The German contract also soared to the highest on record. Carbon permits jumped 6.2% to 77.84 euros a ton.

Rising prices have fueled inflation, a headache for policy makers already contending with the spread of the omicron virus variant just before the holiday season. Geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine could also make things worse, with a potential invasion likely to send prices even higher. 

Jeremy Weir, chief executive officer of commodities trader Trafigura Group, last month warned that Europe could experience rolling blackouts in case of a cold winter. That was before Electricite de France SA said it was halting reactors accounting for 10% of the nation’s nuclear capacity, leaving the region at the mercy of the weather at the height of winter in January and February.

Benchmark Dutch gas prices jumped to almost 149 euros a megawatt-hour, the highest for a most-active contract since Oct. 6. The futures pared some of the gains after Gazprom PJSC booked about 21% of the Yamal-Europe pipeline to Germany for January at a month-ahead capacity auction Monday. Though limited, it’s a change from the less predictable daily auctions the exporter opted to use for December. 

The auction results “will not ease the risk of very tight supplies — given limited bookings for now,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S. “But with a market clutching straws every little helps.”

With nuclear outages biting, electricity producers will have to use more gas to keep the lights on. Russia plans for gas flows into Germany via the key Yamal-Europe pipeline to remain capped, potentially forcing Europe to rely on its already depleted inventories. Storage sites are only 60% filled, a record-low for this time of year.

Only 4% of capacity was allocated for Monday to send gas through Germany’s Mallnow station, where the pipeline crossing Belarus and Poland terminates. That compares with about 35% of available space that Russia has booked for most days this month. 

There’s no relief to market tightness in sight as temperatures are expected to remain below normal levels in the U.K., Denmark and northern Germany next week. While traders expect liquefied natural gas may help to some extent, due to lower demand in Asia, cargo diversions will take time and increased arrivals at European ports are unlikely to come before January.

Meanwhile, wind power is expected to stay low in Germany until Dec. 23. In France and Britain, generation is forecast to dip on Tuesday, causing further supply issues.

Pubblicato in: Armamenti, Russia

Russia. Il missile ipersonico Zirkon viaggia adesso a Mach 9.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-12-23.

Putin Vladimir 012

Lo Zirkon è un’arma progettata per neutralizzare unità navali maggiori come portaerei, incrociatori e cacciatorpediniere a lunghe distanze. È lanciabile sia da terra, sia da aerei, sia da sottomarini, anche in immersione.

* * * * * * *

«Lo Zirkon è il primo missile da crociera ipersonico al mondo, in grado di effettuare lunghi voli aerodinamici, manovrando in strati densi dell’atmosfera e utilizzando esclusivamente la propria potenza di propulsione»

«La velocità massima del missile raggiunge circa 9 volte la velocità del suono. La sua gittata massima è di 1.000 chilometri»

«”Ora abbiamo testato con successo, e dall’inizio dell’anno ne saremo dotati, nuovi missili ipersonici navali a velocità di 9 Mach”, ha detto Putin»

«Le cose sono arrivate al punto che i sistemi di difesa anti-missile sono schierati in Polonia e Romania, ed i lanciatori che sono lì, gli Mk-41, possono anche essere equipaggiati con sistemi di attacco Tomahawk»

«Questo è una minaccia per noi. Si tratta di dati di fatto, cose ovvie»

«In risposta, siamo stati costretti, voglio sottolineare questo, siamo stati costretti a iniziare a sviluppare armi ipersoniche. Questa è la nostra risposta»

* * * * * * *

Cina. Gli Usa sono indifesi rispetto ai missili ipersonici suborbitali. – Generale Milley.

Cina. I lanciatori dei missili ipersonici DF-17 sono diventati stealth.

Cina. Testato un missile atomico ipersonico suborbitale. Usa colti di sorpresa.

Biden dice di essere ‘preoccupato’ dei missili ipersonici cinesi e russi. La prossima guerra.

Armamenti Nucleari. È in atto una corsa al riarmo per la prossima guerra.

Russia. Nuovi o perfezionati missili ipersonici. Kh-47M2 Kinzhal e 3M22 Zircon.

Russia. I missili intercontinentali ipersonici Avangard sono operativi.

Russian anti-satellite missile test draws condemnation

Russia’s city-destroying super-nuke Avangard that travels at TWENTY times the speed of sound will be ready for take-off next year

Missili ipersonici: rottura dell’attuale stabilità strategica tra Stati Uniti, Cina e Russia e rivoluzione nelle tattiche militari

Superpotenze militari. Gli equilibri sono rotti. Una guerra è opzione appetibile.

* * * * * * *

La velocità del suono varia a seconda del mezzo: ad esempio, il suono si propaga più velocemente nell’acqua che non nell’aria. In termini medi, la velocità del suono è 331.2 metri al secondo, ossia 1,192.32 km/ora.

Muoversi nella atmosfera ad una velocità di Mach 9, significa viaggiare a 10,730.88 km all’ora.

Ciò significa che lo Zirkon copre i mille kilometri di gittata in un decimo di ora, ossia circa sei minuti primi.

In altri termini, non lascia nemmeno il tempo di individuarlo, ammesso che si disponga di radar capaci di tracciarlo.

Ci si pensi bene.

Gli equilibri militari tra Russia, Cina e Stati Uniti sono rotti, rendendo sempre più verosimile la possibilità di una guerra nucleare.

* * * * * * *


Putin: presto la Russia avrà nuovo missile ipersonico con velocità massima di 9 Mach.

All’inizio di novembre, il presidente russo Vladimir Putin ha dichiarato che i test dei missili ipersonici Zirkon sono quasi ultimati.

Vladimir Putin ha affermato che nel prossimo futuro la Russia avrà a disposizioni armi ipersoniche con una velocità di 9 Mach.

“Ora abbiamo testato con successo, e dall’inizio dell’anno ne saremo dotati, nuovi missili ipersonici navali a velocità di 9 Mach”, ha detto Putin.

Mosca sta sviluppando armi ipersoniche, in risposta alle azioni della Nato, che rappresentano una minaccia per la Russia, ha affermato il presidente Vladimir Putin.

“Le cose sono arrivate al punto che i sistemi di difesa anti-missile sono schierati in Polonia e Romania, ed i lanciatori che sono lì, gli Mk-41, possono anche essere equipaggiati con sistemi di attacco Tomahawk. Questo è una minaccia per noi. Si tratta di dati di fatto, cose ovvie. Nonostante tutte le nostre richieste di non farlo, cosa è successo? Quello che vediamo ora. In risposta, siamo stati costretti, voglio sottolineare questo, siamo stati costretti a iniziare a sviluppare armi ipersoniche. Questa è la nostra risposta.” ha osservato il presidente russo.

A sua volta, il portavoce del Cremlino Dmitry Peskov ha indicato un aumento delle “azioni provocatorie”. In particolare, Peskov ha fatto riferimento all’intensificarsi della ricognizione aerea della Nato nella regione del Mar Nero.

Lo Zirkon è il primo missile da crociera ipersonico al mondo, in grado di effettuare lunghi voli aerodinamici, manovrando in strati densi dell’atmosfera e utilizzando esclusivamente la propria potenza di propulsione. La velocità massima del missile raggiunge circa 9 volte la velocità del suono. La sua gittata massima è di 1.000 chilometri.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Problemia Energetici, Unione Europea

Europa. Elettricità. In Germania ed in Italia le tasse pesano per il 49.9% e 40.7%, rispettivamente.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-11-06.

Gabellieri__002__

«Non-household electricity prices in the EU highest in Germany (EUR 0.18 per kWh) and lowest in Finland (EUR 0.07 per kWh) in the first half of 2021»

«For the prices adjusted for inflation, the total price for non-household consumers, i.e. including taxes, was EUR 0.1155 per kWh in the first half of 2021 compared to 0.0968 EUR per kWh in the first half of 2008 …. In the first half of 2021, the share of taxes was highest in Germany and Italy, where non-recoverable taxes and levies made up 49.9 % and 40.7 % of the total price respectively. The share of taxes for the EU is 33.2 %» [Eurostat]

* * *

«The soaring price of electricity represents a Rorschach test for Europe’s politicians. Depending on their leanings, it is either a reason to wean the continent from fossil fuels more swiftly — or more slowly»

«At the heart of the surge in electricity prices is Europe’s reliance on natural gas to turn on the lights, heat homes, and power industry»

«Under European energy rules, the price of gas drives the price of electricity. Gas accounts for a fifth of Europe’s energy consumption, and most of it is imported from Russia»

«And without a gas exit plan, there is no way for Europe to meet its own climate target»

«But some governments across the continent now fear that higher heating bills this winter could bolster populists in upcoming national elections in several countries, or trigger social unrest like the “Yellow Vests” protests from 2018 in France»

«Hungary has claimed that rising gas prices are linked to the European Union’s climate ambitions, which its prime minister, Viktor Orban, decried as “utopian fantasy.”»

«“The fact that the E.U. has succeeded in getting a lot of coal off the energy grid actually makes things worse,” Mr. Gore pointed out»

«Madrid, where electricity prices have risen sharply, sparking some protests on the streets»

«Problems like these among voters represent risks to the left-of-center government»

«In many ways, all across the continent, the Achilles’ heel of Europe’s green transition is gas»

«Norway, which does not belong to the European Union but has set ambitious climate targets modeled after the European Union’s, is in the throes of a robust domestic political debate about how much longer it can exploit its North Sea oil and gas resources»

* * * * * * *

L’articolo riportato è stato stilato in perfetto stile liberal. Alcuni potranno condividerlo, altri non accettarlo, e noi tra costoro.

A nostro sommesso avviso, la visione ideologica denatura la visione del problema.

Il nodo consiste nel fatto che in Europa l’energia elettrica è gravata da tasse che arrivano al 49.9% in Germania, con media 33.2%, i proventi delle quali sono destinati a finanziare l’economia verde.

Mr Putin ha ben focalizzato il problema

«Russian President Vladimir Putin blamed the transition to green energy and low investment in the extraction industries on Tuesday for what he said were “hysteria and some confusion” on European markets where energy prices are surging» [Fonte]

Si noti come basterebbe togliere l’isteria di queste tasse dalle bollette dell’energia elettrica per poter ripristinare prezzi ragionevoli in piena concorrenza con quelli del resto del mondo.

* * * * * * *


An Electricity Crisis Complicates the Climate Crisis in Europe.

Berlin — The soaring price of electricity represents a Rorschach test for Europe’s politicians. Depending on their leanings, it is either a reason to wean the continent from fossil fuels more swiftly — or more slowly.

The timing is crucial. European Union leaders have cast themselves as the vanguard of a global green transition at the international climate talks that kick off this weekend in Glasgow.

The repercussions are vast. How Europe emerges from the current energy crisis will bear on how the world addresses the climate crisis. Europe accounts for a very large share of global emissions produced since the start of the industrial age, and its ability to pivot away from fossil fuels is key to averting ruinous rates of global warming.

At the heart of the surge in electricity prices is Europe’s reliance on natural gas to turn on the lights, heat homes, and power industry. Even though most countries in the bloc are moving away from coal faster than other parts of the world, like Asia, they have continued to lean on gas while building out their renewable energy infrastructure.

Under European energy rules, the price of gas drives the price of electricity. Gas accounts for a fifth of Europe’s energy consumption, and most of it is imported from Russia.

But while natural gas is less polluting than coal, it is still a fossil fuel that produces carbon dioxide emissions that are warming up the planet. And without a gas exit plan, there is no way for Europe to meet its own climate target, which is to reduce its emissions by 55 percent by 2030 compared with 1990 levels.

The power crisis, in other words, is accelerating a reckoning over gas — and foreshadowing what other parts of the world will face as they make their energy transitions.

“It’s bringing to the fore the question, ‘What do we do about gas?’” said Lucie Mattera, the Europe analyst for E3G, a climate research group.

It is also undermining unity about how to transition to renewables. While policies designed to address climate change are not the main driver of rising electricity prices, some European leaders are claiming that is the case. The cause is basically that demand for gas has soared — sending prices skyward — as the industrialized world has bounced back from the depths of the pandemic and started returning to its normal working rhythm.

But some governments across the continent now fear that higher heating bills this winter could bolster populists in upcoming national elections in several countries, or trigger social unrest like the “Yellow Vests” protests from 2018 in France.

Those fears have caused several European countries to question the ambitious E.U. target of cutting emissions of planet-warming gases by at least 55 percent within a decade.

Hungary has claimed that rising gas prices are linked to the European Union’s climate ambitions, which its prime minister, Viktor Orban, decried as “utopian fantasy.” Poland, a major coal producer that has never been a fan of the European Commission’s emissions-reductions targets, has pressed Brussels to change or delay some of its proposed measures.

Spain, on the other hand, has pressed for a faster transition to renewable energy, precisely so that the continent isn’t forever subjected to the ups and downs of the gas market. “The present and the future belong to renewable energies and we cannot solve a crisis caused precisely by dependence on fossil fuels by looking to the past,” Teresa Ribera, its deputy prime minister and a longtime climate advocate, said in an email. “The Spanish government believes that the transition must be accelerated, not slowed down.”

Tim Gore at the Brussels-based Institute for European Environmental Policy, a research group, called the price jumps for electricity a “perfect storm.” Global demand for gas rose sharply just as winds in Northern Europe (where there is significant wind power) dropped off and gas reserves ran low during a long, lockdown winter. Added to the mix was the closing of coal-burning power plants, largely in Western Europe.

“The fact that the E.U. has succeeded in getting a lot of coal off the energy grid actually makes things worse,” Mr. Gore pointed out. “That’s a good thing, but it’s unfortunate that it happened to coincide with everything else.”

The human consequences play out in the 7th floor apartment of Ascención García López in a working class suburb of Madrid, where electricity prices have risen sharply, sparking some protests on the streets.

Ms. López’s power bills have nearly doubled since last year, forcing her to change habits. She keeps her blinds open until sundown, so the last rays of sun can light the rooms. She cooks her stews in a pressure cooker, instead of simmering for better flavor. She does the laundry in the middle of the afternoon, when the electricity rates are cheaper, but she fears her neighbors will complain because the middle of the afternoon in Madrid is siesta time.

Ms. López, 56, who is currently unemployed and in charge of caring for two young grandchildren and her elderly mother, hasn’t yet had to turn on the heater. Winter worries her. “I will use it only on the coldest days, not every day,” she said.

One evening this week, her youngest grandson wandered around the apartment as dusk descended. Only when it’s completely dark will she turn on a light.

Everyone on a tight budget has come up with their own hacks. Some say they’ve resorted to unscrewing some of their light bulbs from light fixtures. Others report skipping daily hot showers or cooking big batches of food to save on bills.

Problems like these among voters represent risks to the left-of-center government, for which Ms. Ribera, the deputy prime minister, is also the minister for the ecological transition. Spain has redirected more than 2.6 billion euros in profits from energy companies to consumers, slashed electricity taxes and imposed a cap on how much natural-gas prices are allowed to increase. The energy crisis, Ms. Ribera argued, should not punish the poor.

She compared this moment to the oil crisis of the 1970s. “It is important to share both the risks and the benefits, so the consequences of market behavior are not always paid by the same people,” Ms. Ribera said.

Spain is also pushing the European Union to organize a centralized platform for buying natural gas, similar to how its members banded together to negotiate the price of coronavirus vaccines. That approach raises questions relating to the bloc’s competition laws, and many members remain skeptical.

The European Commission recently proposed some possible measures that individual members could take, largely focused on protecting the most vulnerable members of society and small businesses, similar to the action taken in Spain, and said it would begin exploring the possibility of shared natural gas reserves. It stressed that speeding up the transition to green energy remained the best solution.

In many ways, all across the continent, the Achilles’ heel of Europe’s green transition is gas.

Britain, by contrast, has been doubling down on its domestic gas reserves in the North Sea, despite protests by climate campaigners. Norway, which does not belong to the European Union but has set ambitious climate targets modeled after the European Union’s, is in the throes of a robust domestic political debate about how much longer it can exploit its North Sea oil and gas resources.

The European Commission’s climate package aims to reduce gas consumption by a third by 2030, compared with 2015 levels, and virtually eliminate it by 2050. Exactly how to do that is still unclear, and the surge in gas prices is likely to complicate those efforts.

The gas question complicates domestic politics. Hungary and France have elections next year. In Germany, higher gas prices could create tension in the future government between the Greens, who are hoping to push for a swift exit from coal, and the Social Democrats, who ran on a strong social justice platform.

“Any politician who says this will be simplistic is unrealistic,” said Bas Eickhout, a Green Party politician from the Netherlands and member of the European Parliament. “We are rebuilding our economy. That is a huge transition. The phasing of that transition is tricky and has vulnerable moments.”

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Geopolitica Mondiale

Draghi. Dichiarazione finale. ‘I nostri sogni’ sono ancora vivi. Sogni non fatti.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-11-03.

Draghi 013

«on climate change we will go nowhere»

* * * * * * *

Joe Biden ed i liberal europei si sarebbero aspettati una condivisione unanime sull’abbandono della estrazione e dello sfruttamento del carbone.

Speranze disattese in modo così plateale da tramutare in farsa il G20: Australia, India, Russia e Cina non hanno sottoscritto alcunché, solo alcune parole generiche. Sono loro i vincitori del G20.

Questa è una nuova débâcle di Joe Biden, e viene subito dopo l’aver perso la maggioranza nella Assemblea delle Nazioni Unite.

Stati Uniti e liberal europei hanno perso il controllo del G20, una volta loro feudo incontrastato.

Grandi carnevalate dei commenti, ma quelli rilasciati da Mario Draghi superano la più fervida delle fantasie.

* * * * * * *

«Senza cooperazione, non andiamo da nessuna parte su questioni come clima, salute, povertà»

«In che cosa siamo riusciti? Abbiamo impegnato risorse notevoli, abbiamo mantenuto questi impegni e abbiamo fatto sì che nostri sogni sono ancora vivi e stanno facendo progressi …. Saremo giudicati per quello che faremo, non per quello che diciamo»

«Questo vertice ha riempito di sostanza le nostre parole …. Gli attivisti ci spingono e ci mantengono sul pezzo quando dicono che “è tutto un bla, bla, bla” ma questo è stato un “vertice di sostanza”»

«Negli ultimi anni la capacità dei paesi del G20 di lavorare insieme è diminuita»

«Per la prima volta i paesi del G20 si sono impegnati a mantenere a portata di mano l’obiettivo di contenere il riscaldamento entro 1,5 gradi con una serie di azioni immediate e a medio termine …. Tutti i paesi del G20 riconoscono la validità scientifica dell’obiettivo di 1,5 gradi e si impegnano con un linguaggio significativo a contenere le emissioni per non perdere di vista questo obiettivo»

«Per quanto riguarda le emissioni di anidride carbonica, prima non c’era nessun impegno collettivo: ora si parla di raggiungere un obiettivo entro il 2050 e questo comporta un progresso che prima non era previsto. Per quella data non ci saranno emissioni nette aggiuntive»

* * * * * * *

Questi i punti chiave.

«abbiamo fatto sì che nostri sogni sono ancora vivi»

«Saremo giudicati per quello che faremo, non per quello che diciamo»

Sogni, ecco cosa erano le loro ambizioni.

Sì Mario Draghi, sarete giudicati per quello che avete fatto e che farete.

* * * * * * *


G20, Draghi: “E’ solo l’inizio, uniti per affrontare le crisi”.

Il premier: “Senza cooperazione, non andiamo da nessuna parte su questioni come clima, salute, povertà”.

“Questo è solo l’inizio. Qualcosa è cambiato: senza cooperazione, non andiamo da nessuna parte su questioni come clima, salute, povertà”. Mario Draghi, presidente del Consiglio, si esprime così chiudendo i lavori del G20 2021 a Roma. “In che cosa siamo riusciti? Abbiamo impegnato risorse notevoli, abbiamo mantenuto questi impegni e abbiamo fatto sì che nostri sogni sono ancora vivi e stanno facendo progressi”, dice il premier. “Saremo giudicati per quello che faremo, non per quello che diciamo”, afferma.

“Questo vertice ha riempito di sostanza le nostre parole”. “Gli attivisti ci spingono e ci mantengono sul pezzo” quando dicono che “è tutto un bla, bla, bla” ma questo è stato un “vertice di sostanza”, ribadisce, annunciando che l’Italia stanzierà “1,4mld di dollari l’anno” per cinque anni per contrastare i cambiamenti climatici.

                         LA CONFERENZA

“Negli ultimi anni la capacità dei paesi del G20 di lavorare insieme è diminuita. In questo vertice è cambiato qualcosa e questo mi rende fiducioso: il G20 sembra aver ritrovato la capacità di affrontare sfide epocali e esistenziali: il covid 19, il clima, la salute, le disuguaglianze di genere e di ricchezza”, dice Draghi in conferenza stampa, facendo riferendosi a “tutte le sfide che non possiamo vincere da soli”.

Capitolo clima: “Per la prima volta i paesi del G20 si sono impegnati a mantenere a portata di mano l’obiettivo di contenere il riscaldamento entro 1,5 gradi con una serie di azioni immediate e a medio termine”, dice Draghi. “Tutti i paesi del G20 riconoscono la validità scientifica dell’obiettivo di 1,5 gradi e si impegnano con un linguaggio significativo a contenere le emissioni per non perdere di vista questo obiettivo”.

Per quanto riguarda le emissioni di anidride carbonica, prima “non c’era nessun impegno collettivo: ora si parla di raggiungere un obiettivo entro il 2050 e questo comporta un progresso che prima non era previsto. Per quella data non ci saranno emissioni nette aggiuntive”. C’è poi “la promessa di dare 100 miliardi dollari l’anno ai paesi più poveri. Siamo molto vicini a raggiungere questo obiettivo, i paesi del G20 sono” già “a 82-83 miliardi”. L’Italia, come annunciato da Draghi, stanzierà 1,4 miliardi ogni anno per 5 anni.

“E’ un summit di successo” come ha detto il presidente Usa Joe Biden “nel senso che siamo riusciti a mantenere vivi i nostri sogni, impegnarci per ulteriori provvedimenti e stanziamenti giganteschi, ulteriori promesse di riduzione. Questo è un successo, sembrava che negli ultimi mesi soprattutto i paesi emergenti non avessero nessuna intenzione di prendere impegni ulteriori”. “C’è un senso di urgenza, condiviso da tutti”, dice Draghi. “C’è la preoccupazione di mostrare credibilità attuando le promesse fatte. Qualcosa è cambiato: senza cooperazione, non andiamo da nessuna parte su questioni come clima, salute, povertà“. La sostanza è che fino ad oggi non condividevamo le ambizioni, oggi condividiamo tutti gli obiettivi e tutte le ambizioni. Potremmo rinforzarle in futuro, ora bisogna condividere la velocità di azione”

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G20 offers little new on climate, leaving uphill task for COP26

– G20 chair Draghi hails summit as success

– Biden chides China and Russia for not doing enough

– G20 pledges to phase out coal power ‘as soon possible’

– NGO groups say the G20 should have done much more

* * *

Rome, Oct 31 (Reuters) – Leaders of the Group of 20 major economies agreed on a final statement on Sunday that urged “meaningful and effective” action to limit global warming, but angering climate activists by offering few concrete commitments.

The result of days of tough negotiation among diplomats leaves huge work to be done at the broader United Nations COP26 climate summit in Scotland, which starts this week.

U.S. President Joe Biden said he was disappointed that more could not have been done and blamed China and Russia for not bringing proposals to the table.

“The disappointment relates to the fact that Russia and … China basically didn’t show up in terms of any commitments to deal with climate change,” Biden told reporters.

Although the G20 pledged to stop financing coal power overseas, they set no timetable for phasing it out at home, and watered down the wording on a promise to reduce emissions of methane – another potent greenhouse gas.

However, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, who chaired the Rome gathering, hailed the final accord, saying that for the first time all G20 states had agreed on the importance of capping global warming at the 1.5 degrees Celsius level that scientists say is vital to avoid disaster.

“We made sure that our dreams are not only alive but they are progressing,” Draghi told a closing news conference, brushing off criticism from environmentalists that the G20 had not gone nearly far enough to resolve the crisis.

The G20, which includes Brazil, China, India, Germany and the United States, accounts for 60% of the world’s population and an estimated 80% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

The 1.5C threshold is what UN experts say must be met to avoid a dramatic acceleration of extreme climate events like droughts, storms and floods, and to reach it they recommend net zero emissions should be achieved by 2050.

The stakes are huge – among them the very survival of low-lying countries, the impact on economic livelihoods the world over and the stability of the global financial system.

“This was a moment for the G20 to act with the responsibility they have as the biggest emitters, yet we only see half-measures rather than concrete urgent action,” said Friederike Roder, vice president of sustainable development advocacy group Global Citizen.

The final summit document said current national plans on how to curb emissions will have to be strengthened “if necessary” and makes no specific reference to 2050 as a date to achieve net zero carbon emissions.

“We recognise that the impacts of climate change at 1.5°C are much lower than at 2°C. Keeping 1.5°C within reach will require meaningful and effective actions and commitment by all countries,” the communique said.

                         CONSEQUENCES OF INACTION

The leaders only recognised “the key relevance” of halting net emissions “by or around mid-century”. This removed the 2050 date seen in previous versions of the final statement so as to make the target less specific.

China, the world’s biggest CO2 emitter, has set a target date of 2060, and other large polluters such as India and Russia have also not committed to the 2050 target date.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the agreement was a good signal for COP26, but Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau signalled he would have liked to see more ambition.

“There’s no question that Canada, along with a number of other countries, would have liked stronger language and stronger commitments on the fight against climate change than others,” he told reporters.

U.N. experts say that even if current national plans are fully implemented, the world is headed for global warming of 2.7C, with catastrophic consequences.

Draghi predicted that nations would keep on improving their plans to lower carbon emissions in the years ahead, adding that he was surprised by how far countries like China and Russia had shifted their stance in recent days.

“It is easy to suggest difficult things. It is very, very difficult to actually execute them,” he said.

The final G20 statement includes a pledge to halt financing of overseas coal-fired power generation by the end of this year, but set no date for phasing out coal power, promising only to do so “as soon as possible”.

This replaced a goal set in a previous draft of the final statement to achieve this by the end of the 2030s, showing the strong resistance from some coal-dependent countries

The G20 also set no date for phasing out fossil fuel subsidies, saying they will aim to do so “over the medium term”.

                         METHANE REDUCTION

On methane, which has a more potent but less lasting impact than carbon dioxide on global warming, they diluted their wording from a previous draft that pledged to “strive to reduce our collective methane emissions significantly”.

The final statement just recognises that reducing methane emissions is “one of the quickest, most feasible and most cost-effective ways to limit climate change”.

G20 sources said negotiations were tough over so-called “climate financing”, which refers to a 2009 pledge by rich nations to provide $100 billion per year by 2020 to help developing countries tackle climate change.

They have failed to meet the pledge, generating mistrust and a reluctance among some developing nations to accelerate their emissions reductions.

However, Draghi said the funding gap had narrowed to less than $20 billion and predicted it could be closed further, with wealthy nations considering using financing from the International Monetary Fund to make up the shortfall.

World leaders will kick start COP26 on Monday with two days of speeches that could include some new emissions-cutting pledges, before technical negotiators lock horns over the rules of the 2015 Paris climate accord.

The United Nations said last week greenhouse gas concentrations hit a record in 2020 and the world was “way off track” in capping rising temperatures.