Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

La crisi energetica europea sta contagiando il mondo.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-10-07.

Lazzareto 001

«Millions of people around the globe will feel the impact of soaring natural gas prices this winter»

«Nations are more reliant than ever on natural gas to heat homes and power industries amid efforts to quit coal and increase the use of cleaner energy sources»

«But there isn’t enough gas to fuel the post-pandemic recovery and refill depleted stocks before the cold months»

«Countries are trying to outbid one another for supplies as exporters such as Russia move to keep more natural gas home. The crunch will get a lot worse when temperatures drop»

«→→ Pipeline flows from Russia and Norway have been limited ←←»

«That’s worrying as calmer weather has reduced output from wind turbines»

«No wonder European gas prices surged by almost 500% in the past year and are trading near record»

«→→ The spike has forced some fertilizer producers in Europe to reduce output, with more expected to follow, threatening to increase costs for farmers and potentially adding to global food inflation ←←»

«In the U.K., high energy prices have forced several suppliers out of business»

«In China, industrial users including makers of ceramics, glass, and cement may respond by raising prices; households in Brazil will face expensive power bills»

«Economies that can’t afford the fuel—such as Pakistan or Bangladesh—could simply grind to a halt»

«The prospect of accelerating energy costs, in conjunction with squeezed supply chains and food prices at decade highs, could make more central bankers question whether the jump in inflation is as transitory as they’d hoped»

«If the winter is actually cold, my concern is we will not have enough gas for use for heating in parts of Europe»

«If Chinese factories have to contend with widespread power shortages, global prices for steel and aluminum will jump»

«But as more gas goes abroad, less will be available at home»

«→→ This winter, the world is likely to learn how much the global economy depends on natural gas ←←»

* * * * * * *

Blocco Europeo. Il +250% del natural gas manda in fumo le ambizioni green.

Blocco Europeo è strangolato dai rincari del 280% YoY del Gas Naturale. – Mr Putin ringrazia.

COP26, ‘Glasgow climate summit’ si preannuncia essere un fiasco memorabile

G20. Nessun paese ha adempiuto gli Accordi di Parigi del 2015.

Putin riduce giorno dopo giorno le forniture di gas naturale ad una Europa quasi senza scorte.

* * * * * * *

Questi sono i risultati di aver demonizzato per motivi ideologici il carbone e di aver cercato di imporre una transizione al gas naturale. Ma questi sono vezzi ben costosi, ed ora l’Europa paga alla Russia un gas naturale rincarato del 500% nell’ultimo anno. Tutto il comparto produttivo è ridotto alle corde, e questo inverno anche i privati cittadini ne saranno coinvolti.

Il buio, il gelo e la fame sono altamente maieutici.

Se poi li si sommassero alla stagflazione, il quadro generale sarebbe da catastrofe biblica.

* * * * * * *


Europe’s Energy Crisis Is Coming for the Rest of the World, Too

Millions of people around the globe will feel the impact of soaring natural gas prices this winter.

This winter, the world will be fighting over something that’s invisible, yet rarely so vital—and in alarmingly shorter supply.

Nations are more reliant than ever on natural gas to heat homes and power industries amid efforts to quit coal and increase the use of cleaner energy sources. But there isn’t enough gas to fuel the post-pandemic recovery and refill depleted stocks before the cold months. Countries are trying to outbid one another for supplies as exporters such as Russia move to keep more natural gas home. The crunch will get a lot worse when temperatures drop.

The crisis in Europe presages trouble for the rest of the planet as the continent’s energy shortage has governments warning of blackouts and factories being forced to shut.

Inventories at European storage facilities are at historically low levels for this time of year. Pipeline flows from Russia and Norway have been limited. That’s worrying as calmer weather has reduced output from wind turbines while Europe’s aging nuclear plants are being phased out or are more prone to outages—making gas even more necessary. No wonder European gas prices surged by almost 500% in the past year and are trading near record.

The spike has forced some fertilizer producers in Europe to reduce output, with more expected to follow, threatening to increase costs for farmers and potentially adding to global food inflation. In the U.K., high energy prices have forced several suppliers out of business.

Even a normally cold winter in the Northern Hemisphere is expected to drive up natural gas prices further across much of the world. In China, industrial users including makers of ceramics, glass, and cement may respond by raising prices; households in Brazil will face expensive power bills. Economies that can’t afford the fuel—such as Pakistan or Bangladesh—could simply grind to a halt.

Utilities and policymakers are praying for mild temperatures because it’s already too late to boost supplies. The prospect of accelerating energy costs, in conjunction with squeezed supply chains and food prices at decade highs, could make more central bankers question whether the jump in inflation is as transitory as they’d hoped. Traders will be carefully dissecting every weather forecast published from now to December.

“If the winter is actually cold, my concern is we will not have enough gas for use for heating in parts of Europe,” Amos Hochstein, the U.S. State Department’s senior adviser for energy security, told Bloomberg Television on Sept. 20. For some countries, “it won’t only be a recessionary value, it will affect the ability to actually provide gas for heating. It touches everybody’s lives.”

In Asia, importers of liquefied natural gas are paying record prices for this time of year to secure supplies, with some starting to snap up dirtier fuels such as coal and heating oil in case they don’t obtain enough. This may undermine efforts by governments to hit ambitious green goals: Gas emits about half as much carbon dioxide as coal when burned.

China, the world’s biggest buyer of natural gas, hasn’t filled stockpiles fast enough, even though imports are almost double what they were last year, according to customs data. Several Chinese provinces are already rationing electricity to industries to meet President Xi Jinping’s targets for energy efficiency and pollution reduction. A power crisis could exacerbate shutdowns if authorities divert gas to light and heat households.

If Chinese factories have to contend with widespread power shortages, global prices for steel and aluminum will jump. To make matters worse, the country is also grappling with a coal shortage.

Utilities in Japan and South Korea are largely protected by long-term LNG contracts that are indexed to oil. Still, Korea Electric Power Co. said on Sept. 23 that it will increase electricity prices for the first time in almost eight years. A sudden cold snap could force more power companies to dive into the spot market to buy emergency gas supplies at record-high rates. That’s what happened last winter.

The cost of securing LNG supplies has sparked a political controversy in strapped Pakistan, with opposition politicians demanding an inquiry into purchases by the state-owned importer.

In Brazil, the lowest flows to the Parana River Basin in almost a century have slashed hydropower output and forced utilities to rely more heavily on gas. The country boosted gas imports to an all-time high in July, and power bills are rising. With inflation already ballooning, that could hurt President Jair Bolsonaro’s chances in next year’s election.

The stage is set for an all-out scramble among Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and South America for shipments of LNG from exporters such as the Qatar, Trinidad and Tobago, and the U.S. “We have huge demand from all our customers and unfortunately, we can’t cater for everyone,” warned Saad Al-Kaabi, Qatar’s energy minister, at an industry conference this month.

American exporters are poised to ship more LNG than ever as new projects come online toward the end of the year. But as more gas goes abroad, less will be available at home. Even though gas prices have been notably lower in the U.S. than in Europe and Asia, they are trading near the highest level since 2014. Gas inventories are running below their five-year seasonal average, yet U.S. shale drillers are reluctant to boost production out of concern that would crimp their profitability and put off investors.

The Industrial Energy Consumers of America has requested that the Department of Energy reduce U.S. exports until storage levels get back to normal, a move that might exacerbate shortages abroad.

It used to be that the average person paid little attention to the market price of natural gas. It isn’t like oil, where a snap decision from OPEC will almost immediately affect how much they pay at the pump. This winter, the world is likely to learn how much the global economy depends on natural gas.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Materie Prime

Mondo. Materie prime. Costi alla produzione. Carbone +258% anno su anno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-10-05.

2021-09-28__ Coal 001

I costi alla estrazione del carbone fossile sono aumentati al 28 settembre del 258% anno su anno. Si noti che questi sono i prezzi alla estrazione, non certamente i wholesales prices.

2021-09-28__ Coal 002

* * * * * * *

Australia. Proseguirà ad estrarre, usare ed esportare carbone. Liberal affranti.

China Is Planning to Build 43 New Coal-Fired Power Plants. Can It Still Keep Its Promises to Cut Emissions?

Materie prime. Ancora prezzi in salita. Carbone +120.31 percento.

Asia. Trend energetici. Il carbone domina nella produzione di corrente elettrica.

Cina. 2020. Attivate centrali a carbone per 38.4 GW ed in costruzione per altri 36.9 GW.

China Promotes Climate Goal, and Builds New Coal Plants

Carbone. Consumi mondiali. I numeri parlano chiaro. La Cina.

Kremlin. Putin. La Russia potenzia estrazione ed esportazione del carbone.

* * * * * * *

«Coal futures surged to a fresh record high of $210 per metric ton in late September, bringing the monthly gain to nearly 20% and the yearly to almost 160%. Several factors have been pushing coal prices up, including tight supply in China as the country vows to achieve emissions standards and reach carbon neutrality by 2060; a lack of mine investment reflecting pressure from socially conscious investors; imports constraints due to coronavirus restrictions and a surge in natural gas prices amid prospects of a shortage in inventories, specially in Europe. The power crunch is likely to stay given that environmental policies have deterred coal companies from investing in new mines to increase supply and forecasters predict an unusually cold winter season.»

Pubblicato in: Cina, Devoluzione socialismo, Geopolitica Mondiale, India, Russia

Dushanbe. Russia e Cina integrano l’Iran nello SCO. Altra débâcle irredimibile di Joe Biden.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-27.

2021-09-27__ Iran entra nello SCO 001

Leaders Of Russia, China-Led Security Blocs Meet To Discuss Afghanistan

«Russia and its Central Asian allies have launched two days of talks in the Tajik capital to discuss the situation in Afghanistan a month after Taliban militants entered Kabul and seized power in the war-torn country.

Leaders of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) met for a summit in the Tajik capital on September 16, to be followed a day later by a gathering of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which includes China. ….

Founded in 2001, the SCO initially consisted of China, Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan before India and Pakistan joined in 2017. ….

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, whose country is an observer member of the SCO and keen to join the grouping, will attend the gathering.»

* * *

Iran to gain Central Asia clout with entry into SCO security club.

«Iran is set to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization led by China and Russia as a full member, a move experts say will give Tehran more influence over Central Asia — including war-torn neighbor Afghanistan.

“Today, we will launch procedures to admit Iran as a member state of the SCO, and Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Qatar as new dialogue partners,” Chinese President Xi Jinping said via video link on Friday, addressing the SCO Council of Heads of State in Dushanbe, Tajikistan.

Xi said he was confident the “growing SCO family” would “be the builders of world peace, contributors to global development and defenders of the international order,” according to an English translation shared by China’s official Xinhua News Agency.»

* * *

Russia. Pakistan, Greater Eurasian Partnership ed Eurasian Economic Union.

«Russia e Cina stanno sviluppando un grandioso progetto strategico per l’erezione di una Greater Eurasian Partnership volta a riunire in una comunità di intenti e di reciproci benefici tutte le popolazioni euroasiatiche, ossia più di quattro miliardi di persone. I loro sono diplomatici dilungo corso, passati attraverso dure selezioni, ben diversi dai ministri degli esteri occidentali, che, tra l’altro, stanno in carica per tempo molto limitato, cambiando di volta in volta l’indirizzo politico.

*

Ad oriente prese dapprima campo la Sco, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, nata come meccanismo per favorire la risoluzione di dispute territoriali tra i sei paesi aderenti – Cina, Russia, Kazakistan, Kirghizistan, Tagikistan e Uzbekistan – l’organizzazione è andata progressivamente istituzionalizzandosi, intensificando la cooperazione tra i suoi membri tanto su questioni di sicurezza quanto in ambiti come quello economico, energetico e culturale.

Mesi addietro, senza alcuna tromba trionfante, ha preso corpo il Rcep. …

Adesso sta emergendo il progetto strategico russo della Greater Eurasian Partnership ed Eurasian Economic Union. Come dicono i nomi stessi, sono un piano che si articolerà su decenni, ma che saranno decenni di crescita comune.

“The Greater Eurasian Partnership has two broad economic goals. First, it aims to connect Russia and the EAEU to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Its second, lesser goal is to move beyond China and connect the EAEU with Iran, India, and Southeast Asia.”»

* * * * * * *

                         In sintesi.

– Stati Uniti ed Europa hanno da lunga pezza annoverato l’Iran tra gli stati canaglia, fomentatori del terrorismo, colpendolo con un totale bando e coprendolo di sanzioni.

– Russia e Cina lo hanno invece ammesso a pieno titolo nello Sco, e di lì nella Greater Eurasian Partnership ed Eurasian Economic Union, una unione politica, militare ed economica, organizzazioni basate sulla non ingerenza negli affari interni e su rapporti paritetici.

– Sono improvvisamente mutati gli equilibri geopolitici mondiali a favore del Blocco Euroasiatico.

– Questa ulteriore débâcle della Harris-Biden Administration evidenzia molto chiaramente quanto poco pesino sia gli Stati Uniti sia l’Unione Europea.

Lasciamo alla arguta penna di Maurizio Blondet la descrizione dettagliata della risposta sinorussa all’Aukus.

*


La risposta di Russia e Cina all’AUKUS.

                         Integrano l’Iran

 Il magistrale pezzo di Pepe Escobar che ha seguito l’incontro della Shanghai Cooperation Organization e Dushanbe. Titolo originale:

                         L’Eurasia prende forma: come la SCO ha appena ribaltato l’ordine mondiale

Sotto lo sguardo di un Occidente senza timone, la riunione del ventesimo anniversario dell’Organizzazione per la cooperazione di Shanghai è stata focalizzata su due risultati chiave: dare forma all’Afghanistan e dare il via a un’integrazione eurasiatica a spettro completo.

Pepe Escobar

I due momenti salienti dello storico vertice del 20 ° anniversario dell’Organizzazione per la cooperazione di Shanghai (SCO) a Dushanbe, in Tagikistan, dovevano venire dai discorsi programmatici di – chi altro – i leader del partenariato strategico Russia-Cina.

Xi Jinping: “Oggi avvieremo le procedure per ammettere l’Iran come membro a pieno titolo della SCO”.

Vladimir Putin: “Vorrei sottolineare il Memorandum d’intesa firmato oggi tra il Segretariato della SCO e la Commissione Economica Eurasiatica. È chiaramente progettato per promuovere l’idea della Russia di stabilire un partenariato della Grande Eurasia che copra la SCO, l’EAEU (Unione economica eurasiatica), l’ASEAN (Associazione delle nazioni del sud-est asiatico) e l’iniziativa Belt and Road della Cina (BRI).”

In breve, durante il fine settimana, l’Iran è stato sancito nel suo legittimo ruolo eurasiatico principale e tutti i percorsi di integrazione eurasiatica sono convergenti verso un nuovo paradigma geopolitico e geoeconomico globale,.

(MB – L’Iran ha oggi due alleati veri, che si chiamano Russia e Cina. Sarà più difficile per Israele indurre gli americani a “bomb, bomb, bomb Iran” e fare canagliate come a uno stato-paria e isolato. Anche la speranza di Biden di trattare di nuovo gli accordi sul nucleare iraniano (che Teheran ha adempiuto fedelmente e Trump ha rotto) strappando a Teheran in cambio della levata delle sanzioni, in più, la rinuncia di missili di portata tale da colpire Israele, non è più praticabile. L’Iran con a fianco la Cina, cliente del suo petrolio e largitrice di investimenti, + può resistere a questo genere di ricatti)

“Dushanbe si è rivelato come l’ultimo crossover diplomatico. Il presidente Xi ha rifiutato con fermezza qualsiasi “lezione supponente” e ha sottolineato percorsi di sviluppo e modelli di governance compatibili con le condizioni nazionali. Proprio come Putin, ha sottolineato il focus complementare di BRI e EAEU, e di fatto ha sintetizzato un vero Manifesto multilateralista per il Sud del mondo.

Proprio sul punto, il presidente Kassym-Jomart Tokayev del Kazakistan ha osservato che la SCO dovrebbe promuovere “lo sviluppo di una macroeconomia regionale”. Ciò si riflette nella spinta della SCO a iniziare a utilizzare le valute locali per il commercio, aggirando il dollaro USA.

                         Guarda quel quadrilatero

Dushanbe non è stato solo un letto di rose. L’Emomali Rahmon del Tagikistan, fedele musulmano laico ed ex membro del Partito Comunista dell’URSS – al potere da non meno di 29 anni, rieletto per la quinta volta nel 2020 con il 90% dei voti – ha subito denunciato la “sharia medievale” dei talebani 2.0 e hanno affermato di aver già “abbandonato la loro precedente promessa di formare un governo inclusivo”.

Rahmon … era già al potere quando i talebani conquistarono Kabul nel 1996. Era obbligato a sostenere pubblicamente i suoi cugini tagiki contro l’”espansione dell’ideologia estremista” in Afghanistan – che di fatto preoccupa tutti i membri della SCO -afferma quando si tratta di distruggere loschi abiti jihadisti di stampo ISIS-K.

La polpa della questione a Dushanbe era nei bilaterali – e un quadrilatero.

Prendi il bilaterale tra il ministro degli Esteri indiano S. Jaishankar e il FM cinese Wang Yi. Jaishankar ha affermato che la Cina non dovrebbe vedere “le sue relazioni con l’India attraverso la lente di un paese terzo” e si è preoccupato di sottolineare che l’India “non sottoscrive alcuna teoria dello scontro di civiltà”.

È stata una vendita piuttosto difficile considerando che il primo vertice Quad si svolge questa settimana a Washington, DC, ospitato da quel “paese terzo” che ora è immerso nel profondo della modalità di scontro di civiltà contro la Cina.

Il primo ministro pakistano Imran Khan è satto in una serie di bilaterali: ha incontrato i presidenti di Iran, Bielorussia, Uzbekistan e Kazakistan. La posizione diplomatica ufficiale del Pakistan è che l’Afghanistan non dovrebbe essere abbandonato, ma impegnato.

Quella posizione aggiungeva sfumature a quanto aveva spiegato l’inviato presidenziale speciale russo per gli affari della SCO Bakhtiyer Khakimov sull’assenza di Kabul al tavolo della SCO: “In questa fase, tutti gli Stati membri hanno capito che non ci sono ragioni per un invito finché non c’è un legittimo, governo generalmente riconosciuto in Afghanistan”.

E questo ci porta all’incontro chiave della SCO: un quadrilatero con i ministri degli Esteri di Russia, Cina, Pakistan e Iran.

Il ministro degli Esteri pakistano Qureshi ha affermato: “Stiamo monitorando se tutti i gruppi sono inclusi o meno nel governo [afgano]”. Il nocciolo della questione è che, d’ora in poi, Islamabad coordinerà la strategia della SCO sull’Afghanistan e farà da intermediario nelle trattative talebane con i leader di spicco tagiki, uzbeki e hazara. Questo alla fine aprirà la strada verso un governo inclusivo riconosciuto a livello regionale dai paesi membri della SCO.

Il presidente iraniano Ebrahim Raisi è stato accolto calorosamente da tutti, specialmente dopo il suo energico discorso programmatico, un classico dell’Asse della Resistenza. Il suo rapporto bilaterale con il presidente bielorusso Aleksandr Lukashenko ruotava attorno a una discussione sul “confronto delle sanzioni”. Secondo Lukashenko: “Se le sanzioni hanno fatto del male alla Bielorussia, all’Iran e ad altri paesi, è stato solo perché ne siamo responsabili noi stessi. Non sempre siamo stati negoziabili, non sempre abbiamo trovato la strada da percorrere sotto la pressione delle sanzioni».

Considerando che Teheran è pienamente informata sul ruolo della SCO di Islamabad in termini di Afghanistan, non ci sarà bisogno di schierare la brigata Fatemiyoun – informalmente conosciuta come Afghan Hezbollah – per difendere gli Hazara sciiti. Fatemiyoun si è formata nel 2012 ed è stata determinante in Siria nella lotta contro Daesh, soprattutto a Palmyra. Ma se ISIS-K non scompare, questa è una storia completamente diversa.

Particolarmente importante per i membri della SCO Iran e India sarà il futuro del porto di Chabahar. Questa rimane la mossa cripto-Via della seta dell’India per collegarla all’Afghanistan e all’Asia centrale. Il successo geoeconomico di Chabahar dipende più che mai da un Afghanistan stabile – ed è qui che gli interessi di Teheran convergono pienamente con la spinta SCO di Russia-Cina.

Ciò che la Dichiarazione SCO di Dushanbe del 2021 ha enunciato sull’Afghanistan è rivelatore:

L’Afghanistan dovrebbe essere uno stato indipendente, neutrale, unito, democratico e pacifico, libero da terrorismo, guerra e droga.

È fondamentale avere un governo inclusivo in Afghanistan, con rappresentanti di tutti i gruppi etnici, religiosi e politici della società afgana.

Gli Stati membri della SCO, sottolineando l’importanza dei molti anni di ospitalità e assistenza efficace forniti dai paesi regionali e vicini ai rifugiati afghani, considerano importante che la comunità internazionale si impegni attivamente per facilitare il loro ritorno dignitoso, sicuro e sostenibile al loro patria.

Per quanto possa sembrare un sogno impossibile, questo è il messaggio unificato di Russia, Cina, Iran, India, Pakistan e i vari ‘stan’ dell’Asia centrale. Si spera che il primo ministro pakistano Imran Khan sia all’altezza del compito e pronto per il suo primo piano della SCO.

                         Quella tormentata penisola occidentale

Le Nuove Vie della Seta sono state lanciate ufficialmente otto anni fa da Xi Jinping, prima ad Astana – ora Nur-Sultan – e poi a Giacarta.

Questo è il modo in cui l’ho segnalato all’epoca.

L’annuncio è arrivato vicino a un vertice della SCO, poi a Bishkek. La SCO, ampiamente liquidata a Washington e Bruxelles come un semplice talk shop, stava già superando il suo mandato originale di combattere le “tre forze del male” – terrorismo, separatismo ed estremismo – e comprendeva la politica e la geoeconomia.

Nel 2013 c’è stata una trilaterale Xi-Putin-Rouhani. Pechino ha espresso pieno sostegno al programma nucleare pacifico dell’Iran (ricordate, questo è stato due anni prima della firma del Piano d’azione congiunto globale, noto anche come JCPOA).

Nonostante molti esperti all’epoca lo negassero, c’era davvero un fronte comune Cina-Russia-Iran in Siria (Asse di Resistenza in azione). Lo Xinjiang veniva promosso come snodo chiave per l’Eurasian Land Bridge. Il gasdotto è stato al centro della strategia cinese, dal petrolio del Kazakistan al gas del Turkmenistan. Alcune persone potrebbero persino ricordare quando Hillary Clinton, in qualità di Segretario di Stato, si è pronunciata in modo lirico su una Nuova Via della Seta a propulsione americana.

Ora confrontare il Manifesto del Multilateralismo di Xi a Dushanbe otto anni dopo, e ricordare come la SCO “ha dimostrato di essere un ottimo esempio di multilateralismo nel 21 ° secolo”, e “ha svolto un ruolo importante nel migliorare la voce dei paesi in via di sviluppo. ”

L’importanza strategica di questo vertice SCO che si terrà subito dopo l’Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) a Vladivostok non può essere sopravvalutata abbastanza. L’EEF si concentra, ovviamente, sull’Estremo Oriente russo e sostanzialmente promuove l’interconnessione tra Russia e Asia. È un fulcro assolutamente chiave del partenariato eurasiatico della Russia.

Una cornucopia di accordi è all’orizzonte: l’espansione dall’Estremo Oriente all’Artico e lo sviluppo della rotta del Mare del Nord, e coinvolgendo tutto, dai metalli preziosi e l’energia verde alla sovranità digitale che scorre attraverso i corridoi logistici tra Asia ed Europa attraverso la Russia.

Come ha suggerito Putin nel suo discorso programmatico, questo è ciò che riguarda la Greater Eurasia Partnership: l’Unione economica dell’Eurasia (EAEU), la BRI (Belt and Road Initiative), l’iniziativa dell’India, l’ASEAN e ora la SCO, che si sviluppa in una rete armonizzata, gestita in modo cruciale da “sovrano centri decisionali”.

                         Grande Asia di sovrani ed eguali

Quindi, se la BRI propone una “comunità di futuro condiviso per il genere umano” molto taoista, il progetto russo, concettualmente, propone un dialogo di civiltà (già evocato dagli anni di Khatami in Iran) e progetti economico-politici sovrani. Sono, infatti, complementari.

Glenn Diesen, professore all’Università della Norvegia sudorientale e redattore della rivista Russia in Global Affairs, è tra i pochissimi studiosi di spicco che stanno analizzando in profondità questo processo. Il suo ultimo libro racconta in modo straordinario l’intera storia nel suo titolo: L’ Europa come la penisola occidentale della Grande Eurasia: regioni geoeconomiche in un mondo multipolare .

Non è chiaro se gli eurocrati di Bruxelles – schiavi dell’atlantismo e incapaci di cogliere le potenzialità della Grande Eurasia – finiranno per esercitare una reale autonomia strategica.

Diesen evoca in dettaglio i paralleli tra la strategia russa e quella cinese. Fa notare come la Cina “sta perseguendo un’iniziativa geoeconomica a tre pilastri sviluppando la leadership tecnologica attraverso il suo piano China 2025, nuovi corridoi di trasporto attraverso la sua Belt and Road Initiative da trilioni di dollari e stabilendo nuovi strumenti finanziari come banche, sistemi di pagamento e internazionalizzazione. dello yuan. Allo stesso modo, la Russia sta perseguendo la sovranità tecnologica, sia nella sfera digitale che oltre, così come nuovi corridoi di trasporto come la rotta del Mare del Nord attraverso l’Artico e, soprattutto, nuovi strumenti finanziari”.

L’intero Sud del mondo, stordito dal crollo accelerato dell’Impero occidentale e dal suo ordine unilaterale basato su regole, sembra ora pronto ad abbracciare il nuovo solco, pienamente mostrato a Dushanbe: una Grande Eurasia multipolare di sovrani eguali.

Pubblicato in: Brasile, Cina, India, Russia

Brics. 13mo Summit, con novità. Vogliono un ruolo politico internazionale.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-09.

BRICS 001

Il Club dei Brics è formato da Cina, Brasile, Russia, India e South Africa.

«Together, the five-nation group accounts for almost a quarter of the world’s total GDP and over 16% of world trade»

* * * * * * *

«Chinese President Xi Jinping will virtually meet his counterparts from Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa during the 13th BRICS Summit on Sept. 9»

«The leaders are expected to discuss issues such as counterterrorism, reforming multilateral organizations like the UN or the IMF, as well as the Covid-19 pandemic and regional developments»

«When the term was first coined, BRIC referred to the four prominent emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China. South Africa was added in 2010»

«Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will chair Thursday’s meeting, which will also be attended by Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa»

«India has outlined four priority areas for its chairship including reforms for multilateral organizations such as the United Nations and the International Monetary Fund, counterterrorism and using technology to achieve sustainable development goals, according to India’s Ministry of External Affairs»

«it is expected that Afghanistan could be on the agenda»

«The fate of BRICS has diverged since the first summit was held in Russia more than a decade ago. While China and India have grown exponentially, Russia, Brazil and South Africa have stumbled in exerting their influence on the global economy»

* * * * * * *

Cina. Un j’accuse ferocemente e brutalmente rude, e vero, contro gli Stati Uniti.

Cina. Si avvia alla maggioranza nelle Nazioni Unite.

Rappresentando il 25% circa del Pil mondiale ed il 16% dei commerci mondiali, i Brics si apprestano adesso a svolgere anche un ruolo politico globale. È questa una grande svolta.

La Cina da sola può contare su quasi la metà dei voti in aula alle Nazioni Unite, ed i Brics dovrebbero avere la maggioranza dei votanti.

L’operazione sul Fondo Monetario potrebbe essere più difficile, ma i Brics non dovrebbero poter essere ignorati più a lungo.

I tempi stanno mutando molto velocemente.

*


China’s Xi Jinping to attend virtual BRICS summit chaired by India

– Chinese President Xi Jinping will virtually meet his counterparts from Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa during the 13th BRICS Summit on Sept. 9.

– Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will chair Thursday’s meeting, which would also be attended by Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa.

– The leaders are expected to discuss issues such as counterterrorism, reforming multilateral organizations like the UN or the IMF, as well as the Covid-19 pandemic and regional developments.

*

Chinese President Xi Jinping will virtually meet his counterparts from Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa during the 13th BRICS Summit on Sept. 9, the country’s foreign ministry said Wednesday.

When the term was first coined, BRIC referred to the four prominent emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China. South Africa was added in 2010. Together, the five-nation group accounts for almost a quarter of the world’s total GDP and over 16% of world trade.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will chair Thursday’s meeting, which will also be attended by Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa. India currently holds the group’s rotating chairship.

India has outlined four priority areas for its chairship including reforms for multilateral organizations such as the United Nations and the International Monetary Fund, counterterrorism and using technology to achieve sustainable development goals, according to India’s Ministry of External Affairs.

“In addition to these areas, the leaders will also exchange views on the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and other current global and regional issues,” the MEA said Monday.

While the Indian ministry did not specify which global or regional issues would be discussed, it is expected that Afghanistan could be on the agenda. Developments in Kabul are likely to directly impact China, India and Russia.

India’s national security advisor Ajit Doval will present at the summit.

Modi previously chaired the BRICS summit in 2016 in Goa. Last year, the meeting shifted to a virtual format due to the pandemic.

The fate of BRICS has diverged since the first summit was held in Russia more than a decade ago. While China and India have grown exponentially, Russia, Brazil and South Africa have stumbled in exerting their influence on the global economy.

Meanwhile, the relationship between China and India deteriorated last year following border clashes high in the Himalayas.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Materie Prime

Acciaio. Ferro estrattivo +40.38% ed acciaio +29.34%, anno su anno. Inflazione.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-07-23.

2021-07-20__ Steel 001

«Shanghai steel futures recovered to above 5,400 yuan a tonne, the highest since May 18th after latest data showed China’s crude steel output rose by 11.8% from a year earlier in the first half of the year. China pledged to limit crude steel output in 2021 at no higher than the 1.065 billion tonnes it made last year but at the half-way stage of the year, the country has already produced 563.33 million tonnes of the metal. Considering only June, production went up 1.5% year-on-year but declined 5.6% from a record level in May as government environmental controls ahead of the Communist Party’s centenary celebrations in July constrained production. The steel market has been under pressure due to China’s efforts to limit soaring commodity prices after cost of steel rallied to an all-time high of 5,975 yuan per tonne on May 11th.

Steel Rebar is mostly traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and London Metal Exchange. The standard future contract is 10 tons. Steel is one of the world’s most important materials used in construction, cars and all sorts of machines and appliances. By far the biggest producer of crude steel is China, followed by European Union, Japan, United States, India, Russia and South Korea. The steel prices displayed in Trading Economics are based on over-the-counter (OTC) and contract for difference (CFD) financial instruments.» [Fonte]

* * * * * * *

«Roaring industrial demand is propelling those rallies, with plants straining to boost supply after lying dormant during the pandemic.»

«On top of that, powerhouses China and Russia are trying to limit exports to help other industries at home»

«That optimism is a far cry from the past decade, when Western makers closed plants and shed workers as low demand had their mills operating below capacity»

«Last year alone, 72 blast furnaces were idled, according to UBS Group AG»

«→→ This year, U.S. President Joe Biden wants to spend on infrastructure, and the European Union wants to spend on reaching net-zero emissions ←←»

«The West’s top steelmaker ArcelorMittal is set for blockbuster earning»

«We could see a turnaround story there because those economies just need their steel»

«Developments in China are key, given it produces more than half of the world’s steel, mostly with coal-fired blast furnaces»

«Still, other Asian nations are looking to fill any potential gaps in supply»

«Biden is determined to make new roads, rail and housing the hallmark of his tenure, while the EU is emphasizing clean energy as part of the coronavirus recovery package and Green Deal»

«And even as demand rises, Western producers aren’t keen on expanding»

«Cleveland-Cliffs Inc., the second largest U.S. steelmaker, is set to tear down its Ashland mill in Kentucky, as well as a blast furnace at Indiana Harbor West»

«If anything, more support is on the way. The EU eventually will impose duties on imported steel as part of its Green Deal, and those will fall most heavily on carbon-intensive producers such as Russia»

«India is set to boost capacity, with top producer JSW Group saying it will reach its goal of more than doubling capacity to 45 million tons before 2030»

«Southeast Asia, including Malaysia and Indonesia, plans to add another 60 million tons by the end of this decade»

«We need bricks, we need cement, we need steel»

* * * * * * *

Messi i dazi sull’acciaio inossidabile da Cina, Indonesia e Taiwan.

Cina. Innalzati i dazi sui tubi di acciaio EU ed USA.

Acciaio. Primo Trimestre. Mondo -1.4%, Italia -40.2%.

China iron ore surges over 50% in 2020, up for second straight year.

Cina. Acciaio +54%, +23% nel quarto trimestre. Unione Europea -30%.

USA. Acciaio. Prezzi schizzati a 1,350 Usd per tonnellata, +33% in un mese.

Thyssenkrupp-Manager besorgt “Wir haben einen Stahlengpass in Europa”

Unione Europea. Mancano 20 milioni di tonnellate di acciaio in un anno.

* * * * * * *

In un anno il prezzo medio del ferro estrattivo è salito del 40.38% e quello dell’acciaio del 29.34%.

La produzione si è spostata nei paesi che non hanno preclusioni ideologiche: Cina, Russia, India, Malaysia, Indonesia.

Ed il risultato finale è che l’occidente soffre di una severa carenza di acciaio, pur pagandolo a caro prezzo.

Non esiste produzione industriale senza acciaio. Ma non è detto che i produttori vogliano venderlo, specie poi a quanti vorrebbero condannarli perché non si sottomettono alla loro ideologia.

Di conseguenza, ed è un ben triste ritornello di questi tempi, salgono i costi di produzione industriale e, quindi, i prezzi al dettaglio.

Tutto concorre ad alimentare un processo inflattivo, di fronte al quale le banche centrali possono fare poco o nulla.

Adesso, il debito junk rende meno della inflazione.

La conclusione è purtroppo molto semplice.

*


Record Steel Prices Inject Life Into Long-Suffering Industry

There’s rarely been a better time to be in the steel business.

Prices have boomed worldwide this year, smashing record after record. Roaring industrial demand is propelling those rallies, with plants straining to boost supply after lying dormant during the pandemic. On top of that, powerhouses China and Russia are trying to limit exports to help other industries at home.

“If you’d asked me six months ago what was my most positive vision for the first half of 2021, I don’t think I would’ve even come close to the reality,” Carlo Beltrame, who manages Romania and France for AFV Beltrame, said in a phone interview. The closely-held company plans to build a 250 million-euro ($295 million) mill in Romania with the capacity to produce about 600,000 tons a year.

That optimism is a far cry from the past decade, when Western makers closed plants and shed workers as low demand had their mills operating below capacity. Last year alone, 72 blast furnaces were idled, according to UBS Group AG.

This year, U.S. President Joe Biden wants to spend on infrastructure, and the European Union wants to spend on reaching net-zero emissions. Manufacturers such as Nucor Corp., U.S. Steel Corp. and SSAB AB are among those set to become profit machines. ArcelorMittal SA, the world’s biggest outside of China, will earn more than McDonald’s Corp. or PepsiCo Inc., according to analysts’ estimates.

                         Profit Machine

The West’s top steelmaker ArcelorMittal is set for blockbuster earnings

Few expect these good times to last through 2022. Keybanc Capital Markets and Bank of America Corp. believe the backlogs driving a surge in U.S. steel prices will start clearing this year. But some analysts predict the current rally may herald better times in the long run, with prices eventually settling at more sustainable levels than before.

“The steel industries outside of China will potentially enter a renaissance period,” said Tom Price, head of commodities strategy at Liberum Capital Ltd. in London. “We could see a turnaround story there because those economies just need their steel.”

Developments in China are key, given it produces more than half of the world’s steel, mostly with coal-fired blast furnaces. The government has signaled it no longer wants to bear the huge environmental burden that entails, so it’s seeking to curb production through measures such as firming up guidance on capacity swaps and removing export tax rebates.

“Restrictions almost certainly will come into place,” said Tomas Gutierrez, Asia editor and head of data for Kallanish Commodities Ltd. “Steelmakers overseas can sleep a little easier.”

Achieving the government’s goal will be a challenge given China’s strong output at the start of the year, said Lu Ting, senior analyst at researcher Shanghai Metals Market. Still, other Asian nations are looking to fill any potential gaps in supply.

Also providing cause for optimism is the renewed focus on stimulus and infrastructure in the U.S. and Europe. Biden is determined to make new roads, rail and housing the hallmark of his tenure, while the EU is emphasizing clean energy as part of the coronavirus recovery package and Green Deal.

That requires steel, and lots of it. Biden’s proposed infrastructure plan would increase annual demand by about 5 million tons for the first five years, London-based consultancy CRU Group estimated. A bipartisan package would spend $579 billion if approved.

Yet only 4.6 million annual tons of planned capacity are expected to come online in the U.S. by the end of 2022, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Andrew Cosgrove said.

And even as demand rises, Western producers aren’t keen on expanding. U.S. Steel Chief Executive Officer David Burritt told shareholders in April the company had no plans to restart two blast furnaces that were shut down last year.

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc., the second largest U.S. steelmaker, is set to tear down its Ashland mill in Kentucky, as well as a blast furnace at Indiana Harbor West. CEO Lourenco Goncalves said in April those will never return to production as his focus is paying down debt.

European producers are almost as skittish about investing in new capacity after spending the past decade painfully cutting down. ArcelorMittal said during earnings calls that its priority is shareholder returns.

In part, that’s due to fears that protectionist measures governments implemented to support their ailing steel companies won’t last forever.

But there’s no signs of change on that front, even with sky-high prices. Biden still hasn’t repealed tariffs on foreign steel imposed by former President Donald Trump, while the EU last month opted to extend its safeguard measures for another three years.

If anything, more support is on the way. The EU eventually will impose duties on imported steel as part of its Green Deal, and those will fall most heavily on carbon-intensive producers such as Russia.

Other nations also could fill the gap created by China’s restrictive measures. India is set to boost capacity, with top producer JSW Group saying it will reach its goal of more than doubling capacity to 45 million tons before 2030. Southeast Asia, including Malaysia and Indonesia, plans to add another 60 million tons by the end of this decade, according to consultant Wood Mackenzie.

AFV Beltrame could start building its rebar and wire rod factory in Romania as early as this year. The plant will generate the lowest emissions in a steel production unit in the world, the company says.

“I’m trusting that this super cycle will last for some more months,” Carlo Beltrame said. “We need bricks, we need cement, we need steel. And we as entrepreneurs have to take the challenge of transforming this industry.”

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime, Problemia Energetici

Carbone. Dai 46.9$ per tonnellata a settembre agli attuali 148.6$.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-07-20.

2021-07-20__ Coal 001

«Coal futures surged to almost $150 a tonne in July»

«Coal is the major fuel used for generating electricity worldwide»

«The biggest producer and consumer of coal is China»

«China’s biggest industrial provinces has pushed the electricity consumption to unprecedented levels»

«Other big producers include: United States, India, Australia, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa, Germany and Poland»

«The biggest exporters of coal are: Indonesia, Australia, Russia, United States, Colombia, South Africa and Kazakhstan»

«The coal prices have risen almost 40% since the beginning of May as warmer weather boosted demand in Japan, South Korea, and the United States, and production declined in Indonesia and Australia due to flooding»

* * * * * * *

Checché ne pensino e ne dicano i liberal socialisti, al momento attuale a livello mondiale il carbone è la principale fonte energetica con la quale genere corrente elettrica.

In un anno i prezzi del carbone sono quadruplicati, ripercuotendosi pesantemente sui costi di produzione della corrente elettrica. Ma questi maggiori costi si riverberano su quelli della produzione e, quindi, sui costi al consumo.

In poche parole, i rincari del costo del carbone sono significativa concausa dell’incremento della inflazione.

*


«Coal.

Coal futures surged to almost $150 a tonne in July, the highest level in a decade as a heat wave in Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Guangdong, China’s biggest industrial provinces has pushed the electricity consumption to unprecedented levels. Meanwhile, local supply remains limited as drought knocked hydropower generation in Yunnan province, output restrictions remain in place in Shanxi production hubs amid tighter safety inspections and environmental curbs, and as a trade spat with Australia has crimped imports. The coal prices have risen almost 40% since the beginning of May as warmer weather boosted demand in Japan, South Korea, and the United States, and production declined in Indonesia and Australia due to flooding.

Coal futures are available for trading in the Intercontinental Exchange and on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The standard GC Newcastle contact listed on ICE weights 1,000 metric tonnes. Coal is the major fuel used for generating electricity worldwide. The biggest producer and consumer of coal is China. Other big producers include: United States, India, Australia, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa, Germany and Poland. The biggest exporters of coal are: Indonesia, Australia, Russia, United States, Colombia, South Africa and Kazakhstan. Coal prices displayed in Trading Economics are based on over-the-counter (OTC) and contract for difference (CFD) financial instruments. Our coal prices are intended to provide you with a reference only, rather than as a basis for making trading decisions. Trading Economics does not verify any data and disclaims any obligation to do so.» [Fonte]

Pubblicato in: Armamenti, Geopolitica Militare, Russia

Russia. Controllo militare dell’Artico. Le basi sono più importanti delle parole.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-06-13.

Franz Josef Land 001

Il controllo militare, economico e politico dell’Oceano Artico è diventato terreno di confronto tra le grandi potenze.

2021-05-23__ Franz Josef Land 002

Tra le pochissime isole, la Franz Josef Land è l’arcipelago più a nord di tutto il continente: il suo possesso è quindi vitale, sia come punto avanzato di avvistamento radar, sia come base missilistica  di interdizione a missili, aeroplani e navi.

«Franz Josef Land archipelago is the closest land to the North Pole in the eastern hemisphere (about 870 km to the North Pole).

It has been discovered in 1873 by the Austrian – Hungarian “Tegetthoff” expedition, under the leadership of Carl Weyprecht, who named the islands after Emperor Franz Joseph I.

The extremely northern position of the islands attracted expeditions of the pioneer age (late 19th – early 20th century), which usually saw Franz Josef Land as a useful advanced base for attempts to reach the North Pole.

The archipelago was more fully explored by expeditions such as one led by Nansen (who spent the winter of 1895–96 in Franz Josef Land).

In 1926 the islands were taken over by the Soviet Union, for research and military purposes; many of the Russian Polar stations are now abandoned, and the whole archipelago is given back to the wildlife. Polar Bears, walruses, arctic foxes, belugas and whales, and lots of Arctic birds.

Nowadays it is one of rare ‘wild’ places left on Earth – it is unpopulated except for one permanent Russian base.

The archipelago consists of 191 islands, mostly covered with a permanent ice cap. Islands of volcanic origin, including Alexandra Land, Prince George Land, Bell Island, Hooker Island, Prince Rudolf Island, Hall island…» [Ultima0thule]

* * * * * * *

2021-05-23__ Franz Josef Land Saint Nicholas Church 001


«Now Franz Josef Land is home to a Russian military base and the source of added tension in relations with the West»

«The US has once again accused Moscow of “militarising” the Arctic and the head of Russia’s Northern Fleet has told the BBC that Nato and US military activity in the region is “definitely” provocative and on a scale not seen since World War Two»

«The airfield has been upgraded to allow all kinds of planes to land all year round, though emerging on to the tarmac was like stepping on an ice rink»

«Less than 960km (600 miles) below the North Pole, conditions are extreme, with deep snowdrifts and blizzards even in mid-May»

«Even the structure of the base is meant to make a statement: it’s painted in the colours of the Russian flag, bright against the blank canvas all around»

«Known as Arctic Trefoil for its three-leaved shape, the base is the second of its kind in the Arctic – this one is meant for 150 soldiers.»

«But the main show is outside, where Bastion missile launchers raise and lower their firing mechanisms as a soldier in white camouflage stands guard, gun across his chest»

«The missile systems are “to destroy enemy ships”»

«The Northern Fleet put on a far greater show of strength earlier this year when three nuclear submarines smashed through the ice simultaneously, a manoeuvre never seen before»

«Such posturing is making the United States and Nato wary as Russia’s military presence in the region expands to a level not seen since the Cold War»

«we were bussed to a battlecruiser moored in the closed military town of Severomorsk. At 252 metres long, the nuclear-powered Peter the Great is the giant grey flagship of the Northern Fleet.»

«We see such activity as provocative so close to the Russian border where we have very important assets. By that, I mean nuclear forces»

«As the polar ice melts, removing a protective natural curtain, Russia’s long northern frontier will become vulnerable»

«Trade would include exports of the large oil and gas reserves beneath the sea here»

Nota.

Pyotr Velikiy è il nome russo dell’incrociatore atomico Pietro il Grande.

* * * * * * *

Aver costruito, tenuto in manutenzione ed in ottima efficienza bellica una sofisticata base militare in una zona dal clima così avverso significa aver messo a punto una congerie inenarrabile di mezzi: dagli abiti da indossare, a sistemi di arma operativi anche a -50°C, missili e rampe di lancio mobili atte a lavorare a quelle temperature. Per non menzionare anche i mezzi più umili ma indispensabili, quali i lubrificanti che non congelino.

Le beghe legali lascerebbero alquanto sorridenti: le armi comandano.

*


Russia flexes muscles in challenge for Arctic control.

Now Franz Josef Land is home to a Russian military base and the source of added tension in relations with the West.

The US has once again accused Moscow of “militarising” the Arctic and the head of Russia’s Northern Fleet has told the BBC that Nato and US military activity in the region is “definitely” provocative and on a scale not seen since World War Two.

                         Making the Arctic a priority for Russia

We were among the first foreign journalists taken to visit the facility on Alexandra Island, over two hours’ flight from Murmansk up over the Arctic.

The airfield has been upgraded to allow all kinds of planes to land all year round, though emerging on to the tarmac was like stepping on an ice rink.

Less than 960km (600 miles) below the North Pole, conditions are extreme, with deep snowdrifts and blizzards even in mid-May. For a while, rattling along in a military truck, I could make out nothing but white through the window.

In deepest winter the temperature drops to minus 50 degrees C and the soldiers occasionally have to head out in their vehicles to disperse the polar bears who amble right up to the base.

                         ‘Like a space station’

Even the structure of the base is meant to make a statement: it’s painted in the colours of the Russian flag, bright against the blank canvas all around.

Known as Arctic Trefoil for its three-leaved shape, the base is the second of its kind in the Arctic – this one is meant for 150 soldiers.

Ahead of a tour, the commander in charge said it was so high-tech and ecologically efficient it was “like a space station, just in the Arctic emptiness instead of in orbit”.

But the main show is outside, where Bastion missile launchers raise and lower their firing mechanisms as a soldier in white camouflage stands guard, gun across his chest.

The missile systems are “to destroy enemy ships,” another soldier said. They are “effective”, he informed us.

The Northern Fleet put on a far greater show of strength earlier this year when three nuclear submarines smashed through the ice simultaneously, a manoeuvre never seen before. On the same Arctic exercises, two fighter jets flew over the North Pole, refuelling in mid-air.

Such posturing is making the United States and Nato wary as Russia’s military presence in the region expands to a level not seen since the Cold War.

Nato’s spokeswoman confirmed that the alliance had stepped up its patrols and exercises, in response, she said, to a “more challenging security environment”.

                         Blaming Nato for build-up

But Russia doesn’t see things that way.

Before we were flown to the archipelago, we were bussed to a battlecruiser moored in the closed military town of Severomorsk. At 252 metres long, the nuclear-powered Peter the Great is the giant grey flagship of the Northern Fleet.

On board, the Fleet’s commander, Adm Alexander Moiseyev, addressed us in front of a portrait of Peter I, the Tsar who founded Russia’s navy and turned the country towards the West.

But he accused Nato forces and the US of military actions in the Arctic that increased the risk of conflict.

“There haven’t been so many of their forces here for years. Decades. Not since World War Two,” Adm Moiseyev countered, when I put it to him that Nato blamed Russia for the surge in tension. “We see such activity as provocative so close to the Russian border where we have very important assets. By that, I mean nuclear forces.”

As for the Russian build-up, the troops are returning to a region Russia abandoned in the 1990s when the Soviet Union fell apart.

“We’re just recreating the capacity to protect our borders, not to threaten anyone,” argues Lev Voronkov, an Arctic expert from MGIMO university. “After the USSR collapsed, even border posts in that region were left unmanned.”

That won’t be an option for much longer. As the polar ice melts, removing a protective natural curtain, Russia’s long northern frontier will become vulnerable.

                         Land of opportunity

As the Bastion missile launchers danced for the cameras on Alexandra Island, I spotted a Russian ice-breaker cutting through the frozen landscape in the distance. A smaller cargo ship followed in its wake and an iceberg loomed behind both of them.

The vessels were crawling along the northern shipping route that skirts the archipelago and that Russia hopes to develop and control as global warming makes it easier to navigate. Trade would include exports of the large oil and gas reserves beneath the sea here.

Admiral Moiseyev calls his troops the “main instrument” for protecting those economic interests, as well as Russia’s borders.

As competition begins to heat up, our visit to Franz Josef Land was a chance for Russia to flex some muscle and send a message: that its ambitions for the Arctic are great and growing and they are interests it’s ready to defend.

Pubblicato in: Diplomazia, Ong - Ngo, Russia

Russia. Arrestato Andrei Pivovarov, direttore della ong Open Russia, mentre fugge.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-06-01.

Kremlin 001

«Andrei Pivovarov, direttore della ong Open Russia, una delle organizzazioni della galassia legata a Soros, è stato arrestato all’aeroporto Pulkovo di San Pietroburgo qualche giorno dopo lo scioglimento dell’organizzazione fondata dall’ex-oligarca Mikhail Khodorkovsky»

«Il direttore della Ong legata a Soros è stato costretto a scendere dall’aereo sul quale si era imbarcato e che era già pronto al decollo»

«Già nel 2017 la Procura generale aveva dichiarato “indesiderabili” tre organizzazioni finanziate dallo speculatore George Soros e a Open Russia: Otkrytaya Rossia, Open Russia Civic Movement e Institute of Modern Russia»

* * * * * * *

Attenzione!!

Tutti gli articoli riportati sono stati pubblicati su media liberal occidentali

«The standards of the civilised world do not apply there.»

Con l’innata modestia e ritrosia, i liberal occidentali si auto definiscono “civilised world”, ossia quello che aveva invaso militarmente Panama prendersi Mr Noriega e portarselo negli Stati Uniti; che avevano dirottato un aereo egiziano a Sigonella per catturarne i passeggeri; che hanno mandato cacciabombardieri in Libia per assassinare Gheddafi; che hanno mandato un commando in Pakistan ad assassinare Bin Laden. Ma questi sono solo alcuni dei possibii esempi di cosa intendano i liberal per “civilised world”.

No, amici liberal, il mondo non condivide in nulla il vostro modo di pensare e di operare.

* * * * * * *


Russian authorities detain head of opposition group Open Russia

The head of the now-defunct opposition group Open Russia said he was pulled off a plane and detained by police in St. Petersburg.

The head of Russian opposition group Open Russia, which said it ended operations last week, said he was pulled off an airliner and detained by police on Monday.

Andrei Pivovarov said his flight was taxiing for takeoff at St. Petersburg’s Pulkovo Airport when it was stopped and he was removed by authorities.

He said on Twitter that he was taken to the Investigative Committee offices on suspicion of running an “undesirable” organization. If he is convicted, he could be imprisoned for up to six years.

He was reportedly detained and transported to Krasnodar, a city in the south of Russia, following his interrogation, according to a statement circulated by his lawyer Elena Borodina.

The criminal case against him is being carried out by the Investigative Committee for Krasnodar Territory, the statement added.

What is Open Russia?

Open Russia is a political activist group critical of the Kremlin.

The group was financed by oil tycoon and opponent of President Vladimir Putin, Mikhail Khorodkovsky, who now lives in London after spending 10 years in prison. His sentence was widely seen as a punishment for challenging Putin’s rule.

In an attempt to protect Open Russia’s members from prosecution, Pivovarov announced he would cease the organization’s operations last week.

The group based in London was declared “undesirable” in 2017. Members in Russia formed a separate legal entity, albeit with the same name, to continue their activities and defend themselves from prosecution.

Crackdown against ‘undesirable’ groups

The Russian government passed a law in 2015 that made membership of an “undesirable” organization a criminal offense.

The designation has been used to ban about 30 groups. Several  German NGOs in Russia were deemed “undesirable” last week.

Russian authorities described the laws as a response to alleged outside efforts to undermine Russia. Critics have said the laws are part of the Kremlin’s efforts to snuff out dissent.

The federal government has intensified its crackdown in the lead-up to September’s parliamentary elections as the popularity of the main Kremlin-backed party, United Russia, has been falling.

Prominent Kremlin critic, Alexei Navalny, was detained in January upon returning to Russia. The activist had been recovering in Germany after being poisoned by the Soviet-era Novichok nerve agent.

* * *


Andrei Pivovarov: Kremlin critic pulled off plane, arrested

Pivovarov heads the Open Russia movement, which recently dissolved itself over fears its members would be punished under new laws.

Russian authorities have arrested a prominent opposition activist after he was hauled off a flight, and raided the homes of several others.

Andrei Pivovarov, the head of the Open Russia movement, was pulled off a Warsaw-bound plane at St Petersburg’s airport just before takeoff late on Monday.

Pivovarov’s team said police questioned him, searched his apartment and opened a criminal case against him on Tuesday for allegedly violating Russia’s legislation on “undesirable organisations”.

“These situations show us that they are afraid of us, and we are a majority,” Pivovarov’s Twitter account said.

The Krasnodar branch of the Investigative Committee, which probes major cases, said in a statement that Pivovarov had in August 2020 published materials in support of an “undesirable organisation”.

The statement also accused the activist of attempting to flee from investigators on Monday.

Pivovarov said he was going on vacation when he was arrested.

‘Unusual action’

Pivovarov’s removal from the plane came after authorities in Belarus on May 23 diverted a Ryanair flight heading from Greece to Lithuania to the capital, Minsk, and arrested a journalist on board.

Polish airline LOT, which operated Pivovarov’s flight, said the plane was taxiing when Russian air traffic control ordered the crew to return to the parking position.

“The pilot had to comply with this order as he was under Russian jurisdiction,” Polish news agency PAP quoted the company as saying.

Poland said it was looking into the issue.

“This is an unusual action because if the Russians wanted to detain this person they could have done so before boarding. The question is why it was done exactly at that moment,” Deputy Foreign Minister Piotr Wawrzyk told state broadcaster TVP.

“The standards of the civilised world do not apply there.”

Open Russia tagged as ‘undesirable’

Open Russia was financed by tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who moved to London after spending 10 years in prison in Russia on charges viewed by some as political revenge for challenging President Vladimir Putin’s rule.

Russia declared the group “undesirable” in 2017, effectively banning its activities.

Its allies in Russia continued their activism under a separate legal entity to try to protect themselves from prosecution.

But the group folded its activities in Russia last week to prevent its supporters from facing criminal prosecution as parliament prepares to adopt legislation that would increase criminal liability for anyone who cooperates with “undesirable organisations”.

Russia says the law is needed to protect its national security from external interference.

Police raids

Also on Tuesday, police raided a country home of opposition politician Dmitry Gudkov, a former lawmaker who has aspired to run for parliament in September.

At least two of his associates had their homes searched.

“I don’t know the formal reason for this,” Gudkov wrote on the Telegram social media platform. “But the real (reason) is clear.”

Gudkov’s father Gennady, also critical of the Kremlin, described the searches as “a special operation to eliminate Gudkov’s team”.

Authorities were yet to comment on the operation Gudkov said was under way.

Crackdown on dissent

The moves came as Russia appears to be cracking down on political opposition ahead of September’s parliamentary election.

Putin’s United Russia party has lost support recently as economic woes weigh.

The president’s leading political foe, Alexey Navalny, was arrested in January upon his return from Germany, where he had spent five months recovering from nerve agent poisoning that he blames on the Kremlin – accusations that Russian officials reject.

He is serving a two-and-a-half-year prison sentence for violating terms of a suspended sentence stemming from a 2014 embezzlement conviction that he denounces as politically motivated.

With Navalny in prison, prosecutors have asked a Moscow court to designate Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK) and his network of regional offices as “extremist” groups.

In a parallel move, a bill approved by the lower house of the Russian parliament bars members, donors and supporters of “extremist” groups from seeking public office – a measure that would keep Navalny’s associates from running for parliament in September.

*


Putin arresta il direttore di Open Russia mentre fugge: sgominata la rete di Soros

In Italia basterebbe una legge identica che impedisce ad entità finanziate dall’estero di agire come ‘onlus’ in Italia. Ricordatevi: la liberaldemocrazia non è democrazia, è il parco giochi dei miliardari che sono liberi di agire indisturbati in nome della ‘libertà’, che è sempre la loro, visto che la libertà si compra.

Andrei Pivovarov, direttore della ong Open Russia, una delle organizzazioni della galassia legata a Soros, è stato arrestato all’aeroporto Pulkovo di San Pietroburgo qualche giorno dopo lo scioglimento dell’organizzazione fondata dall’ex-oligarca Mikhail Khodorkovsky.

Il direttore della Ong legata a Soros è stato costretto a scendere dall’aereo sul quale si era imbarcato e che era già pronto al decollo.

Nei giorni scorsi, lo stesso Pivarov – dopo l’entrata in vigore della legge che impedisce la candidatura alle elezioni di chiunque abbia lavorato o sostenuto organizzazioni considerate come estremiste e dell’inasprimento delle pene per chi collabora con le organizzazioni “indesiderabili” – aveva annunciato “l’annullamento dell’appartenenza di tutti i membri a Open Russia per evitare possibili persecuzioni”.

Già nel 2017 la Procura generale aveva dichiarato “indesiderabili” tre organizzazioni finanziate dallo speculatore George Soros e a Open Russia: Otkrytaya Rossia, Open Russia Civic Movement e Institute of Modern Russia.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo

Banche Centrali. Alti tassi oppure alta inflazione. Possono scegliere come fallire.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-06-01.

Brüghel il Vecchio. La parabola dei ciechi.

«Se i fatti smentiscono la teoria, tanto peggio per i fatti», Hegel.

Fed. Non solo tapering. Il quantitative easing costituisce una bomba ad orologeria.

Canada. Bank of Canada inizia il ‘great exit’. Inizia il tapering.

Fed. Questa allarmante inflazione è proprio quello che avrebbe voluto evitare. – Bloomberg.

Inflazione. Sorella miseria si fa precedere dalla comare inflazione. Adesso anche l’UK.

Stagflazione. Uno dei tanti cigni neri che si aggirano come avvoltoi.

Fed. Che l’inflazione alta sia temporanea è un ‘article of faith’. – Bloomberg.

Usa. Indice dei Prezzi al Consumo +4.2% anno su anno. Fed in tilt.

USA. Crolla a 218k la generazione di nuovi posti di lavoro. Pronta reazione della Fed.

* * * * * * *

«Con il termine tapering si fa riferimento al processo di rallentamento del ritmo di acquisti mensile dei titoli di Stato (noto come Quantitative easing) da parte di una banca centrale. La parola Tapering è stata utilizzata per la prima volta nel 2013 dall’allora numero uno della Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, quando decise di alleggerire la fase di QE. Il termine Tapering non deve essere confuso con il “Tightening”, parola che invece sta a indicare un restringimento delle condizioni di politica monetaria, solitamente attraverso un aumento graduale dei tassi di interesse» [Sole24Ore]

«central bank asset purchases in the United States, Japan, the euro zone and Britain will slide to about $3.4 trillion this year from almost $9 trillion in 2020»

«The Fed plans to keep borrowing costs near 0% and maintain monthly asset purchases worth $120 billion until it sees “substantial further progress” towards full employment and its 2% flexible inflation target»

* * *

«Con alleggerimento o allentamento quantitativo, o anche facilitazione quantitativa, sovente con la locuzione inglese quantitative easing (o QE), si designa una delle modalità con cui avviene la creazione di moneta a debito da parte di una banca centrale e la sua iniezione, con operazioni di mercato aperto, nel sistema finanziario ed economico. ….

Il quantitative easing è uno strumento in grado di assicurare la permanenza dell’inflazione al di sopra di una certo valore-obiettivo. Il rischio di questa politica monetaria è il fatto che si riveli più efficace del previsto contro la deflazione nel lungo termine, portando ad un eccesso di inflazione a causa dell’aumento dell’offerta di moneta ….»

* * * * * * *

«Slowly but surely, central banks are signaling policy shifts»

«New Zealand now sees higher rates in second half of 2022»

«Canada already signaled a shift»

«Fed also hints at exit talk»

«Central banks are beginning to tip toe away from their emergency monetary settings, with South Korea following in the footsteps of New Zealand and Canada to flag a potential interest-rate increase»

«As vaccines roll-outs continue and economies reopen, traders have been slowly dialing up expectations on rate hikes or a slowing of asset purchases elsewhere too»

«The Bank of Korea became the latest on Thursday to signal a turn when Governor Lee Ju-yeol said policy makers are preparing for an “orderly” exit from its record-low interest rate at some point as the economy recovers»

«The shift in stance came a day after New Zealand’s»

«We can’t rule out that the tail may wag the dog, influencing global market expectations of whether other central banks may also take a more hawkish turn»

«Financial markets have already brought forward pricing of the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike by almost a year since early February»

«Over the same period, market expectations from the Bank of England have switched from rate cuts by late 2022 to a rate increase»

«With major central banks embroiled in bond buying and other easing programs which traditionally get wound down first, most rate hikes remain some way off»

«The BOE has slowed bond-buying and signaled that it’s on course to end that support later this year»

«Norway is on track to start a hiking cycle, and Iceland has already begun»

«The Bank of Canada announced last month a reduction in debt purchases as it forecast a faster economic recovery that may pave the way for rate increases next year»

«The shift in monetary policy is starting»

«Hungary’s central bank said this week it was ready to deliver monetary tightening, and Russia, Turkey and Brazil have already hiked»

«The People’s Bank of China is holding the line with relatively disciplined stimulus»

«They will suffer from a double whammy as the Fed starts moving towards tapering»

* * * * * * *

Nuova Zelanda, Canada, South Korea, Regno Unito, Ungheria, Russia, Turkia, e Brasile hanno già iniziato il tapering oppure lo hanno annunciato come imminente. Ma il tapering si associa ad un aumento dei tassi di interesse.

Tuttavia, si faccia attenzione, il problema non è soltanto finanziario, di bilanciamento tra tassi di interesse ed inflazione.

Di interesse anche maggiore del pil è il numero dei nuovi posti di lavoro generati e la spesa per i consumi, che sono solo parzialmente influenzati dalle manovre finanziarie. Molto gioca la fiducia.

A parte il fatto che la Fed h sulle spalle 87 trilioni di debito totale degli Stati Uniti. Un grande fardello.

Nei fatti, prendiamo atto di questo trend che inizia a delinarsi.

*


Slowly But Surely, Central Banks Are Signaling Policy Shifts.

– New Zealand now sees higher rates in second half of 2022

– Canada already signaled a shift, Fed also hints at exit talk

*

Central banks are beginning to tip toe away from their emergency monetary settings, with South Korea following in the footsteps of New Zealand and Canada to flag a potential interest-rate increase.

As vaccines roll-outs continue and economies reopen, traders have been slowly dialing up expectations on rate hikes or a slowing of asset purchases elsewhere too. Markets are seizing on the tightening narrative, with bond yields and currencies fluctuating as investors recalibrate their bets.

The Bank of Korea became the latest on Thursday to signal a turn when Governor Lee Ju-yeol said policy makers are preparing for an “orderly” exit from its record-low interest rate at some point as the economy recovers. The shift in stance came a day after New Zealand’s.

New Zealand’s outlook was much more hawkish than expected and may yet signal a global shift, according to Sharon Zollner, chief economist at ANZ Bank New Zealand in Auckland.

“We can’t rule out that the tail may wag the dog, influencing global market expectations of whether other central banks may also take a more hawkish turn,” she said.

Financial markets have already brought forward pricing of the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike by almost a year since early February. Over the same period, market expectations from the Bank of England have switched from rate cuts by late 2022 to a rate increase, while investors have almost abandoned bets on further European Central Bank reductions to instead price in a 10 basis-point upward move by the end of 2023.

                         Taper Talks

With major central banks embroiled in bond buying and other easing programs which traditionally get wound down first, most rate hikes remain some way off. But talk of a taper in asset purchases is catching on.

Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida told Yahoo! Finance in an interview Tuesday that there may be a point in upcoming policy meetings where officials can discuss scaling back purchases.

Fed Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles said on Wednesday that it will be important for the central bank to begin discussing in coming months plans to reduce its massive bond purchases if the economy continues to power ahead.

The BOE has slowed bond-buying and signaled that it’s on course to end that support later this year. Australia’s central bank has set July as a deadline for deciding on whether to extend purchases.

Norway is on track to start a hiking cycle, and Iceland has already begun. The Bank of Canada announced last month a reduction in debt purchases as it forecast a faster economic recovery that may pave the way for rate increases next year.

                         Turning Point

“The shift in monetary policy is starting,” said Alicia Garcia Herrero, Hong Kong based chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, who used to work for the ECB and International Monetary Fund.

Detailing its new outlook, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday published forecasts for its benchmark rate — for the first time in more than a year — that show the rate beginning to rise in mid-2022.

To be sure, this shift is still conditional.

RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr said the bank’s outlook is predicated on the economy recovery continuing as vaccines roll out and the pandemic is contained. In a similar vein, BOK’s Lee said the board unanimously agreed to hold rates at a record low on Thursday as pandemic uncertainties persist.

The Fed’s Clarida also qualified his remarks around employment data and how inflation pressures play out, which he expects to be transitory.

It’s also the case that not every central bank is signaling a policy move, not least in the euro zone, where ECB Executive Board member Fabio Panetta said on Wednesday that he hasn’t seen a shift in the economic outlook to justify a reduction in bond purchases.

In emerging markets, the shift is splintering. Hungary’s central bank said this week it was ready to deliver monetary tightening, and Russia, Turkey and Brazil have already hiked. The People’s Bank of China is holding the line with relatively disciplined stimulus, while others continue to support growth as the virus continues to spread.

“There is growth divergence due to a much slower vaccination process in the emerging world and renewed waves,” said Garcia-Herrero. “They will suffer from a double whammy as the Fed starts moving towards tapering.”