Giuseppe Sandro Mela.
La World Nuclear Association ha pubblicato un estensivo lavoro sullo stato attuale e le prospettive future del nucleare in Cina: «Nuclear Power in China»
L’articolo è troppo lungo per essere riportato in toto, per cui ne citeremo solo qualche estratto significativo.
«- Mainland China has 37 nuclear power reactors in operation, 20 under construction, and more about to start construction.
– The reactors under construction include some of the world’s most advanced, to give a 70% increase of nuclear capacity to 58 GWe by 2020-21. Plans are for up to 150 GWe by 2030, and much more by 2050.
– The impetus for nuclear power in China is increasingly due to air pollution from coal-fired plants.
– China’s policy is to have a closed nuclear fuel cycle.
– China has become largely self-sufficient in reactor design and construction, as well as other aspects of the fuel cycle, but is making full use of western technology while adapting and improving it.
– Relative to the rest of the world, a major strength is the nuclear supply chain.
– China’s policy is to ‘go global’ with exporting nuclear technology including heavy components in the supply chain.»
«Most of mainland China’s electricity is produced from fossil fuels, predominantly from coal – 73% in 2015. Two large hydro projects are recent additions: Three Gorges of 18.2 GWe and Yellow River of 15.8 GWe. Wind capacity in 2015 was 8.6% of total, but delivering only 3.3% of the electricity.»
«The IEA notes that since 2012, China has been the country with the largest installed power capacity, and it has increased this by 14% since then to reach 1,245 GWe in 2014, or 21% of global capacity, slightly ahead of the United States (20%). The age structures of the power plants in these two countries differ remarkably: in China almost 70% (865 GWe) was built within the last decade, whereas in the United States half of the fleet (580 GWe) was over 30 years old.»
«Electricity demand has been slowing from over 14% pa in 2010, corresponding with a 10% growth in GDP, according to the China Electricity Council. Three-quarters of this was in industry. In 2015 electricity demand growth was only 0.5%, corresponding with a 6.9% growth in GDP, showing a marked decoupling of the two metrics, though this is partly due to subdued economic conditions. In the 13th Five-Year Plan, power demand growth is expected to be 3.8-4.6% pa to 2020. Residential consumption is about 13% of the total (compared with about 20% in Europe and 34% in the USA).
Per capita electricity consumption was 3510 kWh in 2012. By 2030 it is expected to be 5500 kWh/yr and by 2050 about 8500 kWh/yr.»
«Nuclear generation was 24% up on 2015.»
«it consumed about 4.3 billion tonnes of coal in 2013, more than half the world total, and coal peaked at more than 70% of China’s primary energy»
«In March 2013 the NDRC announced new plans for seawater desalination.* China aims to produce 2.2 million m3/day of desal water by 2015, more than three times the 2011 level. More than half of the freshwater channelled to islands and more than 15% of water delivered to coastal factories will come from the sea by 2015»
«In the 13th Five-Year Plan from 2016, six to eight nuclear reactors are to be approved each year.»
«In December 2011 the National Energy Administration (NEA) said that China would make nuclear energy the foundation of its power-generation system in the next “10 to 20 years”, adding as much as 300 GWe of nuclear capacity over that period»
«China General Nuclear Power (CGN) was expecting to have 34,000 MWe nuclear capacity on line by 2020, providing 20% of the province’s power»
«37 operating nuclear power reactors: 33,657 MWe»
«60 nuclear reactors under construction: 68,7006 MWe»
«179 nuclear reactors proposed: 205,000 MWe»
* * * * * * *
– Le centrali elettriche alimentate a carbone fossile contribuiscono al 73% della produzione elettrica.
– Le centrali atomiche contribuiscono al 24% della produzione elettrica.
– Il restante 3% proviene da fonti idroelettriche ed altre alternative.
– I tre quarti delle centrali elettriche cinesi è stato costruito negli ultimi dieci anni, contro i trenta degli Stati Uniti.
– La Cina ha al momento in funzione 37 centrali atomiche, 60 sono in costruzione e 179 sono al momento proposte o in fase di progettazione.
Una decina di anni ed il suo fabbisogno energetico sarà supplito nella sua quasi totalità dal nucleare.