Trump. Sanzionare l’Iran per distruggere la Germania, meglio Frau Merkel. – Handelsblatt.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-08-17.

Gran brutta cosa essere ideologizzati, assumendone i dogmi come fossero credo religioso non soggetto alla revisione critica della ragione. Pensiero ed azione diventano deliri coatti del tutto avulsi dalla realtà fattuale. Si pensa e si attua ciò che teoria impone, non ciò che sia retto, giusto e logico.

Se poi alla dipendenza dall’ideologia si associasse una smisurata superbia ed un inflessibile orgoglio si vivrebbe un delirio onirico caratterizzato da allucinazioni di grandezza autoreferenziale.

Potrebbero sembrare parole dure, ma sono invece mera constatazione di un dato di fatto. È nei fatti un delirio di onnipotenza: ma basta un nonnulla e la realtà strangola.

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Nel novembre 2016 la dirigenza europea, Mr Juncker, Mr Hollande e Frau Merkel nutrivano la certezza assoluta che Mrs Hillary Clinton ed i liberal democratici avrebbero stravinto le elezioni presidenziali: una incapacità di vedere e percepire la realtà del tutto anomala per capi di governo. Arrivarono al punto di mandare a Mr Trump le congratulazioni per la nomina oltre una settimana dopo le elezioni, comportamento che da un punto di vista diplomatico corrisponde ad uno sgarro severo. Quindi ne dissero tutto il male possibile, denigrandolo in ogni modo e maniera: ma le loro invettive si rilevarono presto essere altamente controproducenti. Ma chi mai si credevano di essere?

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Le parole della Bundeskanzlerin Frau Merkel furono chiare:

«we Europeans must really take our fate into our own hands» [Bundeskanzlerin Frau Merkel – NYT]

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«really take our fate into our own hands.» [Bundeskanzlerin Frau Merkel – Cnn]

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I tedeschi sono in un vicolo cieco, dal quale non potranno uscirne se non a costo di immani disastri: sono strategicamente battuti, proprio come cento anni or sono lo furono alla battaglia di Amiens, che decretò la fine della prima guerra mondiale. Adesso stiamo assisitendo alla sua agonia.

Germania. La demografia che stritola. Mancano tre milioni di lavoratori. – Vbw.

Germania. Realtà geografica, non più umana, politica ed economica.

Germania. Non è povera. È misera. – Financial Times.

Germania. 13 milioni di poveri e 330,000 famiglie con la luce tagliata.

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Stiamo adesso assistendo ad un progressivo ripudio fatto dalla confindustria tedesca nei confronti dei liberal socialisti e, soprattutto, di Frau Merkel.

Merkel, Trump e G20. Vincere o morire. – Handelsblatt.

Industriali tedeschi: Trump ha ragione e Merkel torto. – Handelsblatt.

Questa Unione Europea si sta collassando. – Handelsblatt.

Germania. ‘Conservative Manifesto’ vuole defenestrare Frau Merkel.

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L’Unione Europea e Frau Merkel si sono sempre opposte fieramente alle sanzioni poste dagli Stati Uniti all’Iran. Usarono anche parole grondanti di orgoglio.

Europe requests exemptions from Trump’s Iran sanctions for energy, aviation and more [Cnbc]

«”As allies, we expect that the United States will refrain from taking action to harm Europe’s security interests.” [Frau Merkel»

EU sets course for US clash with law blocking Iran sanctions

«The EU has put itself on a collision course with the US over Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the nuclear deal with Iran, as major European firms started to pull out of the country to avoid being hit by sanctions.

In an attempt to shield EU companies doing business with Iran, the European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, said he would turn to a plan last used to protect businesses working in Cuba before a US trade embargo was lifted on the Latin American country.

“We will begin the ‘blocking statute’ process, which aims to neutralise the extraterritorial effects of US sanctions in the EU. We must do it and we will do it tomorrow [Friday] morning at 10.30,” he said at the end of a summit in the Bulgarian capital, Sofia.»

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EU To Activate ‘Blocking Statute’ Against U.S. Sanctions On Iran

«Speaking after a meeting of EU leaders in Sofia, Bulgaria, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker told a news conference that the EU will launch on May 18 the process of activating its so-called blocking statute.

“We have to protect our companies. We have to protect mainly those who bona fide — mainly small and medium-sized enterprises — did invest in Iran, and we cannot leave them alone,” he said.»

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Alla fine Mr Trump perse la pazienza.

Trump. Colpire l’Europa attraverso la Turkia. Knockout.

Trump. Executive Order EO13846. Della vera novità nessuno ne parla.

Mr Trump aveva semplicemente ignorato eurodirigenza e governi europei, ottenendo in questa maniera il massimo risultato con il mimino sforzo. Non solo, Mr Trump aveva piantato un cuneo tra il governo tedesco e la realtà del comparto produttivo e commerciale, ponendoli in un’antitesi di vita o di morte.

Frau Merkel è diventata il nemico numero uno della confindustria tedesca,

«Anyone doing business with Iran will not be doing business with the United States»

Visto? Basta una riga per piegare l’altera Frau Merkel.

«Even as European leaders oppose the measure, the likes of Daimler and Siemens are scrambling to comply rather than risk disruption of their US business»

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«How quickly they caved — Daimler, Volkswagen, Siemens, Bayer and many others. Despite all the brave words of defiance when the US announced renewed sanctions against Iran, German firms are suspending business with the Middle Eastern country now that they are in place for fear of President Donald Trump’s wrath»

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«Whatever German executives might think about the wisdom or legality of the sanctions, the US market is simply too important to risk disruptions»

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«The Berlin government has pledged to find ways to protect German companies from secondary sanctions, but they seem to prefer the safer path of not flouting sanctions to begin with»

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«Daimler, the maker of Mercedes-Benz luxury vehicles, announced as soon as the sanctions became effective on Tuesday that it has suspended its “activities in Iran in accordance with applicable sanctions until further notice.”»

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«Oil and gas producer Wintershall said it will close down its office in Tehran»

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«VW warned that the truck and bus sales of its Scania unit in Iran could be completely lost»

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«Siemens said it is taking measures to make its business activities conform to the “changed multilateral framework.”»

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«Chemicals giant Bayer and consumer goods producer Henkel said they are reviewing their Iran business.»

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«On the face of it, the US threat puts German firms in a quandary. “Adherence to US sanctions can conflict with EU law, which can be an offense in Germany that carries a fine of up to €500,000,” said Constantin Lauterwein of the law firm Hengeler Mueller. “At the same time, ignoring US sanctions can be a major disadvantage, especially in terms of access to the US market.”»

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«The showdown over sanctions demonstrates once again the economic clout of the United States, severely restricting the ability of Germany or any other European country to follow a different policy»

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«The gap between Europe’s aspirations as a wannabe great power and its impotence in the face of US power is as wide as ever»

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«Then as now, US officials will not be paying much attention to the damage inflicted on European companies through the sanctions»

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Ci sarebbero molti validi motivi per dubitare di questa ultima affermazione: tutta questa operazione è stata condotta per obbligare i governi europei a togliersi lo scolapasta dalla testa e rientrare nei ranghi.

Nulla è più apprezzabile di un governo che eserciti la Realpolitik.

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→ Handelsblatt. 2018-08-12. German firms bend to US sanctions, cutting ties to Iran

Even as European leaders oppose the measure, the likes of Daimler and Siemens are scrambling to comply rather than risk disruption of their US business.

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How quickly they caved — Daimler, Volkswagen, Siemens, Bayer and many others. Despite all the brave words of defiance when the US announced renewed sanctions against Iran, German firms are suspending business with the Middle Eastern country now that they are in place for fear of President Donald Trump’s wrath.

“Anyone doing business with Iran will NOT be doing business with the United States,” the US president tweeted unequivocally on Tuesday.

Whatever German executives might think about the wisdom or legality of the sanctions, the US market is simply too important to risk disruptions. The Berlin government has pledged to find ways to protect German companies from secondary sanctions, but they seem to prefer the safer path of not flouting sanctions to begin with.

Firms adapt to ‘changed multilateral framework’

Daimler, the maker of Mercedes-Benz luxury vehicles, announced as soon as the sanctions became effective on Tuesday that it has suspended its “activities in Iran in accordance with applicable sanctions until further notice.”

Oil and gas producer Wintershall said it will close down its office in Tehran. VW warned that the truck and bus sales of its Scania unit in Iran could be completely lost. Siemens said it is taking measures to make its business activities conform to the “changed multilateral framework.” Chemicals giant Bayer and consumer goods producer Henkel said they are reviewing their Iran business.

The US said it would renew sanctions when it unilaterally pulled out of the Iran nuclear accord in May. European allies, including Germany, opposed the move and said they will uphold their end of the agreement.

Mr. Trump considered the accord reached by his predecessor, Barack Obama, to lift sanctions in exchange for Iran suspending development of nuclear weapons to be a bad deal, too full of holes to be effective. European countries fear that abandoning the accord will lead to accelerated development of nuclear weapons in Iran.

Europe’s aspirations vs reality

On the face of it, the US threat puts German firms in a quandary. “Adherence to US sanctions can conflict with EU law, which can be an offense in Germany that carries a fine of up to €500,000,” said Constantin Lauterwein of the law firm Hengeler Mueller. “At the same time, ignoring US sanctions can be a major disadvantage, especially in terms of access to the US market.”

The showdown over sanctions demonstrates once again the economic clout of the United States, severely restricting the ability of Germany or any other European country to follow a different policy. The gap between Europe’s aspirations as a wannabe great power and its impotence in the face of US power is as wide as ever.

The so-called “blocking statute” put into place by the European Union is not much help. The measure “allows EU operators to recover damages arising from US extraterritorial sanctions from the persons causing them and nullifies the effect in the EU of any foreign court rulings based on them,” the European Commission said in a press release Monday. It also forbids EU persons from complying with those sanctions.

However, Mr. Lautwein said it isn’t likely to bring a wave of lawsuits. Who is the person causing the losses – a government, a bank, a company? How do you quantify the damage?

Washington has promised further sanctions for November, directly targeting Iran’s oil and gas exports, if Tehran does not meet its demands regarding uranium enrichment and supporting terror. Then as now, US officials will not be paying much attention to the damage inflicted on European companies through the sanctions.