Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo

COP26, ‘Glasgow climate summit’ si preannuncia essere un fiasco memorabile

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-22.

«The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, also known as COP26, is the 26th United Nations Climate Change conference. It is scheduled to be held in the city of Glasgow, Scotland between 31 October and 12 November 2021, under the presidency of the United Kingdom. The conference is set to incorporate the 26th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the 16th meeting of the parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP16), and the third meeting of the parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA3).» [Fonte]

* * *

Materie prime. Ancora prezzi in salita. Carbone +120.31 percento.

Usa. Agosto21. CPI, Consumer Price Index, 5.3%. Indice energetici +25%.

Usa. Agosto21. PPI, Producer Price Index, è salito a 8.3 percento.

Usa. Fed ha di fatto perso il controllo di economia ed inflazione, come negli anni ’70.

Blocco Europeo. 2021Q2. Pil -2.5%, occupati -2.1 milioni, comparati con 2019Q4.

Blocco europeo. Prezzi degli energetici fuori controllo. Stagflazione in casa.

Asia. Trend energetici. Il carbone domina nella produzione di corrente elettrica.

USA, Gran Britannia ed Australia. Accordo per dotarla di sottomarini atomici. Ira di Europa e Cina.

* * *

I paesi dell’enclave liberal socialista, Unione Europea ed America, la credenza dei quali nel ‘clima’ è elemento del loro credo liberal, sono in stagflazione, ossia inflazione unita a stagnazione economica.

Le loro banche centrali sono impotenti nel governo di questa situazione, anche perché l’inflazione è in buona parte importata a seguito dei rincari delle materie prime ed il sistema produttivo è caricato di tasse per finanziare il green.

Poi, l’enclave liberal è una quota secondaria nel sistema economico mondiale.

In questa situazione, non sussistono le risorse per una azione sul ‘clima’, sempre poi che esso esista.

«United Nations chief Antonio Guterres said a critical meeting on climate change later this year in Scotland is at risk of failure due to mistrust between developed and developing countries and a lack of ambitious goals among some emerging economies»

«The U.N. COP26 conference in Glasgow aims to wring much more ambitious climate action and the money to go with it from participants around the globe»

* * * * * * *


Lo U.N. COP26 conference di Glasgow si preannuncia essere un flop colossale.

La stagflazione si è dimostrata essere una ottima medicina per curare il delirio del ‘clima’.

E siamo solo agli inizi.

*


Glasgow climate summit at risk of failure, U.N. chief warns.

United Nations, Sept 16 (Reuters) – United Nations chief Antonio Guterres said a critical meeting on climate change later this year in Scotland is at risk of failure due to mistrust between developed and developing countries and a lack of ambitious goals among some emerging economies.

The U.N. COP26 conference in Glasgow aims to wring much more ambitious climate action and the money to go with it from participants around the globe. Scientists said last month that global warming is dangerously close to spiralling out of control.

“I believe that we are at risk of not having a success in COP26,” Guterres told Reuters in an interview at U.N. headquarters in New York on Wednesday. “There is still a level of mistrust, between north and south, developed and developing countries, that needs to be overcome.”

“We are on the verge of the abyss and when you are on the verge of the abyss, you need to be very careful about what the next step is. And the next step is COP26 in Glasgow,” he said.

Guterres and Britain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson will on Monday host a meeting of world leaders on the sidelines of the annual high-level week of the U.N. General Assembly in a bid to build the chances of success at the climate conference, being held from Oct. 31 to Nov. 12.

“My objective and the reason why we are convening a meeting on Monday is exactly to build trust, to allow for everybody to understand that we all need to do more,” Guterres said.

“We need the developed countries to do more, namely in relation to the support to developing countries. And we need some emerging economies to go an extra mile and be more ambitious in the reduction of air emissions,” he said.

Monday’s meeting, which will be both virtual and in-person, will be closed to allow for “frank and open discussions” on how to deliver success in Glasgow, said a senior U.N. official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

                         U.S., CHINA NEED TO ‘DO THEIR PART’

The world remains behind in its battle to cut carbon emissions and the pace of climate change has not been slowed by the global COVID-19 pandemic , the World Meteorological Organization said on Thursday.  

Scientists said last month that unless big action is taken to cut emissions, the average global temperature is likely to hit or cross the 1.5-degree Celsius (2.7-degrees Fahrenheit) warming threshold within 20 years.  

“Until now, I have not seen enough commitment of developed countries to support developing countries … and to give a meaningful share of that support to the needs of adaptation,” said Guterres.

Developing countries tend to be the most vulnerable to costly climate impacts, and the least resourced to deal with them. For years, they have been struggling to secure the funds to help them prepare for climate disruptions that rich nations pledged in 2009 to ramp up to $100 billion annually.

So far, the money that has arrived has focused on emissions reduction rather than adaptation. Of the $78.9 billion in climate finance transferred by rich countries in 2018, only 21% was spent on adaptation, OECD data shows.

When asked whether companies that develop carbon capture technology should have to issue patent waivers so those advances can be shared, Guterres said: “Any development in that area should be a global public good and should be made available to all countries in the world.”

But he noted: “We have not yet seen results that confirm those technologies will be a key element to solve the problem.”

Guterres played down the impact that the increasingly rancorous relationship between China and the United States – the world’s two biggest emitters of greenhouse gases – will have on their cooperation on climate change. read mor  

“They are a multilateral issue,” said Guterres. “So my appeal to both the United States and China is for each of them to do their part.”

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Eurostat. Agosto21. Inflazione annualizzata 3.2% nel blocco europeo.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-20.

Immagine.png2021-09-20__ Eurostat 001

Eurostat ha rilasciato il Report Annual inflation up to 3.0% in the euro area.

August 2021

Annual inflation up to 3.0% in the euro area. Up to 3.2% in the EU .

The euro area annual inflation rate was 3.0% in August 2021, up from 2.2% in July. A year earlier, the rate was -0.2%. European Union annual inflation was 3.2% in August 2021, up from 2.5% in July. A year earlier, the rate was 0.4%. These figures are published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

The lowest annual rates were registered in Malta (0.4%), Greece (1.2%) and Portugal (1.3%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Estonia, Lithuania and Poland (all 5.0%). Compared with July, annual inflation remained stable in one Member State and rose in twenty-six.

In August, the highest contribution to the annual euro area inflation rate came from energy (+1.44 percentage points, pp), followed by non-energy industrial goods (+0.65 pp) and food, alcohol & tobacco and services (both +0.43 pp).

* * * * * * *

Come si constata dalla Tabella sottostante, il settore energetico rende ragione di una inflazione del 15.4%. Però, sia privati cittadini sia industria devono sottostare a codesti aumenti.

Immagine.png2021-09-20__ Eurostat 002

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Europa. La stagflazione è in casa per rimanervi. Se ne pigli atto.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-06.

2021-09-07__ Staglazione 001

«In economia, con il termine stagflazione (combinazione dei termini stagnazione ed inflazione) si indica la situazione nella quale sono contemporaneamente presenti nello stesso mercato sia un aumento generale dei prezzi (inflazione), sia una mancanza di crescita dell’economia in termini reali (stagnazione economica).»

* * * * * * *

ECB. Weidmann e Wunsch votano contro la Lagarde sui tassi di interesse.

Eurozona. Il cigno nero della stagflazione volteggia come un avvoltoio.

Stagflazione. Uno dei tanti cigni neri che si aggirano come avvoltoi.

Usa. Nonfarm Payrolls 253,000. La débâcle economica di Joe Biden.

* * * * * * *

Se gli Stati Uniti sono entrati in stagflazione, l’Unione Europea non è da meno.

«‘Stagflation’ is the greatest threat to Europe’s recovery»

«the “huge mass” of accommodative monetary policy by central banks and fiscal stimulus from governments “may well fire more inflation.”»

«there were “a number of constraints on the flexibility of production”»

«the “huge mass” of accommodative monetary policy by central banks and fiscal stimulus from governments, implemented to support economies amid the coronavirus pandemic, may well fire more inflation»

«Stagflation is generally considered to be when the rate of inflation is high but economic growth has slowed and unemployment remains elevated»

«There is also concern around the effect of supply chain issues from Asia hitting manufacturing activity in Europe, as well as the fact that higher wages could feed into inflationary pressures»

«economies, not only in the EU, could start to experience elements of “stagflation” similar to that seen in many countries in the 1970s»

«Preliminary data released on Tuesday showed inflation in the euro zone hit a 10-year high in August, with consumer prices up 3% from a year ago»

* * * * * * *

I sistemi economici dell’enclave liberal occidentale sono entrati in stagflazione.

Si ripete la situazione economica e finanziaria già vissuta negli anni ’70, ma on la grande differenza che a quei tempi l’occidente era l’unica realtà economica degna di nota, mentre adesso deve confrontarsi con una Cina assunta al ruolo di grande potenza mondiale politica, economica e militare.

Siamo al crepuscolo dei liberal socialisti, che ci stanno trascinando tutti alla rovina.

*


‘Stagflation’ is the greatest threat to Europe’s recovery, warns ex-Italian PM Monti

– Monti said the “huge mass” of accommodative monetary policy by central banks and fiscal stimulus from governments “may well fire more inflation.”

– At the same time, Monti said there were “a number of constraints on the flexibility of production” to increase.

* * *

Former Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti told CNBC Saturday that he believes the greatest threat to Europe’s economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic is “stagflation.”

Monti, now the president of Italy’s Bocconi University, said the “huge mass” of accommodative monetary policy by central banks and fiscal stimulus from governments, implemented to support economies amid the coronavirus pandemic, “may well fire more inflation.”

At the same time, Monti said there were “a number of constraints on the flexibility of production” to increase.

Stagflation is generally considered to be when the rate of inflation is high but economic growth has slowed and unemployment remains elevated.

The IHS Markit euro zone flash composite purchasing managers’ index, which looks at activity across manufacturing and services, hit a two-month low of 59.5 in August versus 60.2 in July. A reading higher than 50 still represents an expansion in economic activity, but many economists have suggested that momentum may be slowing in the region.

There is also concern around the effect of supply chain issues from Asia hitting manufacturing activity in Europe, as well as the fact that higher wages could feed into inflationary pressures.

Speaking to CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick at the European House Ambrosetti Forum on Saturday, Monti said that economies, not only in the EU, could start to experience elements of “stagflation” similar to that seen in many countries in the 1970s.

Monti said, therefore, it will be “very important to manage wisely and in a coordinated manner this transition from a needed abundance of monetary and financial support to a more ordinary situation.”

Preliminary data released on Tuesday showed inflation in the euro zone hit a 10-year high in August, with consumer prices up 3% from a year ago.

The European Central Bank is due to hold its next policy meeting on Sep. 9 and is expected to discuss the path forward for its asset purchasing program. However, analysts told CNBC earlier in the week that they expect the ECB to hold off announcing a tapering of its Covid stimulus measures until December.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo

Germania. Sondaggi elettorali. SPD 24%, Cdu 22%, Grüne 18%. Merkeldämmerung.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-30.

2021-08-30__ Germania 001

La Germania si appresta a pagare a duro prezzo i sedici anni di cancelleria Merkel, l’essersi ostinata a non volersi dimettere dopo i risultati delle scorse elezioni, ed infine di essersi incaponita nel far nominare il suo replicante Herr Armin Laschet quale candidato cancelliere.

Senza poi contare la scriteriata politica economica interna.

Si tenga infine presente come la Union sia costituita da CDU e da CSU, che supporta circa il 6% dei voti. Merkel ha distrutto la CDU.

Germania. Luglio21. Prezzi delle importazioni +15.0% su luglio20.

Germania. Luglio21. PPI, Producer prices of industrial products, +10.4% su Luglio20.

Germania. Luglio21. Selling prices in wholesale trade, WPI, +11.3% su Luglio20.

Si profila una catastrofe economica.

La Germania ha una gran voglia reagire, di cambiare.

* * * * * * *

«The campaign over who will replace German Chancellor Angela Merkel heated up on Sunday after a new opinion poll showed the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) opening up a bigger lead over Merkel’s conservatives»

«Support for the SPD rose two points from last week to 24%, their highest result in four years according to the INSA poll conducted for the Bild am Sonntag newspaper. The conservatives lost a point to 21%, their lowest ever polled»

«It was the second survey in the last week that has put the SPD ahead. Support for Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), has been falling steadily in recent weeks»

«In a hypothetical direct vote for chancellor, the INSA poll showed that the SPD’s candidate, Finance Minister Olaf Scholz, would take 31% of the vote, compared to just 10% for Laschet and 14% for the Greens candidate Annalena Baerbock»

* * * * * * *

Così, con SPD al 24%, Cdu al 22% e Grüne al 18%, la Germania si avvia ad un periodo di turbolente sommovimenti politici, e questo proprio bel mezzo di una crisi inflattiva a due cifre percentuali.

Si noti come l’ondata Grüne si sia nettamente ridimensionata.

* * * * * * *


German election campaign heats up as Merkel’s conservatives slide

Berlin, Aug 29 (Reuters) – The campaign over who will replace German Chancellor Angela Merkel heated up on Sunday after a new opinion poll showed the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) opening up a bigger lead over Merkel’s conservatives.

Support for the SPD rose two points from last week to 24%, their highest result in four years according to the INSA poll conducted for the Bild am Sonntag newspaper. The conservatives lost a point to 21%, their lowest ever polled.

Germany goes to the polls on Sept. 26, when Merkel steps down as chancellor after 16 years in office and four straight national election victories. Merkel’s imminent departure has weakened support for her conservative alliance.

It was the second survey in the last week that has put the SPD ahead. Support for Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), has been falling steadily in recent weeks.

The bloc’s candidate for chancellor, CDU chairman Armin Laschet, has been under fire since he was caught on camera laughing during a visit last month to a town hit by floods.

In a hypothetical direct vote for chancellor, the INSA poll showed that the SPD’s candidate, Finance Minister Olaf Scholz, would take 31% of the vote, compared to just 10% for Laschet and 14% for the Greens candidate Annalena Baerbock.

The three candidates are due to hold a televised debate on Sunday evening.

Despite the SPD’s lead in the polls, it would still need to team up with two other parties to govern, prompting a discussion about which possible coalition partners would be acceptable.

Scholz declined to rule out teaming up with the far-left Linke in an interview with the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung, although he said any German government must commit itself to NATO membership.

The Linke, currently polling on about 6%, calls for the abolition of NATO in its election manifesto.

Meanwhile, the Greens candidate Baerbock distanced herself from the Linke as a possible partner.

“The Linke has just pretty ruled itself out, as it was not even willing to support the Bundeswehr in rescuing German nationals and local forces from Afghanistan,” Baerbock told the newspapers of the Funke media group.

Laschet cast doubt on the commitment of both the SPD and Greens to support the German military, saying at an event on Saturday that they had blocked measures in the past to protect soldiers.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime

Mondo. Prezzi Materie Prime sempre in crescita. L’inflazione è una realtà duratura.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-16.

2021-08-12__ Materie Prime 001

I prezzi delle materie prime continuano implacabili a crescere. A questi si aggiungano i costi del trasporto ed anche le tasse locali.

2021-08-12__ Materie Prime 002

Un solo esempio. Il prezzo del carbone è lievitato del 109.94%, anno su anno.

Ma i prezzi del propano, della benzina, del gas naturale, dell’etanolo, e della nafta sono saliti oltre il 50%, sempre anno su anno.

Il lean hogs è cresciuto del 55.64%.

Carbone, litio, molibdeno, stagno, cobalto e soda hanno prezzi che superano il 50%, anno su anno.

Sarebbe impensabile una crescita economica e la assenza di inflazione in una situazione del genere.

Ma il problema è politico.

Ci si rassegni.

L’inflazione c’è ed è destinata a rimanere per un bel pezzo.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Germania. Le elezioni di settembre potrebbero sconvolgere i piani della Bce. – Merkeldämmerung.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-13.

2021-08-09__ Germania Sondaggi 001

2021-08-13__ DE Sondaggi

La situazione tedesca è del tutto metastabile.

Il pil è aumentato dell’1.5% trimestre su trimestre, il PPI – Indice dei prezzi alla Produzione – è salito all’8.5%, il PCI – prezzi  al consumo – vale 3.8% segno di un crescente effetto inflattivo, l’Indice dei Prezzi alla Importazione vale ora +12.9%. Ma sono i costi dell’energia a colpire tutto il sistema produttivo, più che raddoppiati nell’ultimo biennio, sia per gli aumenti delle materie prime sia per perché gravati dalle tasse ecologiche.

The Energy Report: The Price Of Green

«The price of the green energy transition is starting to worry policymakers across the globe as it is becoming apparent the rash move to alternative energies is going to be so costly that it could put the global economy at risk. The fears of inflation, or what could be called green inflation, are starting to hit home to policymakers that maybe have not thought about the real cost of the energy transition and the impact that is going to have on people’s daily lives.»

* * * * * * *

A settembre si terranno le elezioni politiche, e le previsioni elettorali sarebbero quelle riportate nelle tabelle, tenendo conto che di norma in Germania i risultati elettorali differiscono anche grandemente dalle prospezioni.

Si prospetterebbe una situazione nella quale nessun partito risulterebbe essere chiaramente egemone. A ciò conseguirebbe la necessità di formare una coalizione tra forze politiche con anime contrastanti.

Ma il problema si prospetta ben più ampio del solo quadro politico.

ECB. Weidmann e Wunsch votano contro la Lagarde sui tassi di interesse.

Weidmann. ECB dovrebbe ridurre gli stimoli dettati dalla emergenza.

ECB’s Knot Warns Central Bank Could Be Underestimating Inflation

Gli interessi tedeschi divergono sempre più vistosamente da quelli della Ecb, e si potrebbe anche arrivare ad un punto di rottura, che i risultati elettorali potrebbe accelerare.

* * * * * * *

««Effetto alluvione» in vista del voto del 26 settembre. Ma è il combinato di congestione sulla supply chain, rischio lockdown in Cina e nuova guidance sull’inflazione a mettere la Germania in allerta»

«Mentre la Bce tratteggia magnifiche sorti e progressive per il terzo trimestre di quest’anno e Mario Draghi invita gli italiani alla cautela sanitaria in vacanza, al fine di non intaccare un’economia che va addirittura meglio del previsto, dalla Germania arriva solo cauta attesa»

«Perché il tanto temuto effetto alluvione si è alla fine palesato sui sondaggi: stando all’ultima rilevazione Kantar per il settimanale Focus, infatti, le risate fuori luogo del candidato cancelliere della Cdu, Armin Laschet, avrebbero portato il distacco fra cristiano-democratici e Verdi a soli 2 punti»

«Il partito di Angela Merkel avrebbe perso 3 punti percentuali, attestandosi al 24%, mentre quello di Annalena Baerbock ne avrebbe guadagnati altrettanti, salendo al 22%. Sempre terza al 18% la Spd»

«E che la tensione stia salendo lo conferma anche la decisione della Commissione elettorale tedesca, la quale ha escluso i Verdi dalla possibilità di correre nel Land della Saarland per irregolarità nella scelta del candidato»

«Ma al netto delle dietrologie, la Germania sconta con almeno un trimestre di anticipo criticità che Bce e governo italiano paiono ignorare in vista dell’autunno»

«In primis, il possibile deterioramento delle condizioni già estreme sulla supply chain globale, già capaci di rallentare all’1,5% il Pil della locomotiva europea nel secondo trimestre contro attese del 2% e, soprattutto, infliggere una pesante battuta d’arresto alla produzione industriale»

«A fronte di prezzi già record per il trasporto merci via container»

«se il contagio dovesse invece portare a uno stop anche di terminal e hub di trasporto, l’autunno diventerebbe un incubo a livello di approvvigionamenti»

«Senza contare l’interscambio commerciale record fra Germania e Cina, il quale oggi – a livello di export teutonico – è ancora secondo in termini assoluti dopo quello con Washington ma ormai solo per 8 miliardi di controvalore, dopo aver polverizzato quello tra Berlino e Parigi»

«Berlino ragiona su questo»

«Bce, la quale, ottenuta la vittoria di Pirro della nuova guidance sull’inflazione, appare certa di aver vincolato la prosecuzione del Pepp – sotto altro nome e formula – fino al raggiungimento formale del 2% di inflazione»

«Bundesbank, il cui numero uno infatti ha platealmente e pubblicamente votato contro la politica di tassi a zero perenni implicita nel nuovo approccio monetario dell’Eurotower»

«Con l’intera curva dei rendimenti obbligazionari sovrani in negativo, Deutsche Bank ha calcolato la perdita di valore implicita per un Bund trentennale acquistato oggi in base al tasso di inflazione»

«Se già con un 1% la perdita sarebbe attorno al 25%, giungere al nuovo obiettivo Bce del 2% implicherebbe qualcosa come il 45%»

«La Germania stia pagando un pesante scotto all’inflazione energetica, sia a livello di costi dell’elettricità che del gas, quest’ultimo direttamente legato alla disputa geopolitica fra Ue e Russia e alla scelta di quest’ultima di inviare un segnale di minaccia tramite il dimezzamento dei flussi verso l’hub tedesco di Mallnow»

«Insomma, visto da Berlino il terzo trimestre del 2021 già oggi appare in netta antitesi con quello dalle mille tonalità di rosa tratteggiato da Christine Lagarde e Mario Draghi»

* * * * * * *


Tra Cdu e Verdi solo 2 punti. Draghi e Bce fanno i loro conti senza l’oste di Berlino?

«Effetto alluvione» in vista del voto del 26 settembre. Ma è il combinato di congestione sulla supply chain, rischio lockdown in Cina e nuova guidance sull’inflazione a mettere la Germania in allerta.

Berlino è silenziosa. Troppo. Mentre la Bce tratteggia magnifiche sorti e progressive per il terzo trimestre di quest’anno e Mario Draghi invita gli italiani alla cautela sanitaria in vacanza, al fine di non intaccare un’economia che va addirittura meglio del previsto, dalla Germania arriva solo cauta attesa. Elettorale.

Perché il tanto temuto effetto alluvione si è alla fine palesato sui sondaggi: stando all’ultima rilevazione Kantar per il settimanale Focus, infatti, le risate fuori luogo del candidato cancelliere della Cdu, Armin Laschet, avrebbero portato il distacco fra cristiano-democratici e Verdi a soli 2 punti. Il partito di Angela Merkel avrebbe perso 3 punti percentuali, attestandosi al 24%, mentre quello di Annalena Baerbock ne avrebbe guadagnati altrettanti, salendo al 22%. Sempre terza al 18% la Spd. E che la tensione stia salendo lo conferma anche la decisione della Commissione elettorale tedesca, la quale ha escluso i Verdi dalla possibilità di correre nel Land della Saarland per irregolarità nella scelta del candidato. Di fatto, un 1,3% degli aventi diritto totali al voto del 26 settembre cui gli ambientalisti dovranno giocoforza fare a meno.

A detta di molti, una decisione a orologeria. Ma al netto delle dietrologie, la Germania sconta con almeno un trimestre di anticipo criticità che Bce e governo italiano paiono ignorare in vista dell’autunno. In primis, il possibile deterioramento delle condizioni già estreme sulla supply chain globale, già capaci di rallentare all’1,5% il Pil della locomotiva europea nel secondo trimestre contro attese del 2% e, soprattutto, infliggere una pesante battuta d’arresto alla produzione industriale.

A fronte di prezzi già record per il trasporto merci via container, Goldman Sachs ritiene che l’attuale, nuova emergenza pandemica scoppiata in Cina possa ulteriormente esacerbare la situazione.

La quale, a livello di code in attesa per sdoganare e scaricare nei principali hub portuali, oggi è del 76% superiore alla media a 5 anni. E con 25 città in 10 province ritenute oggi a rischio medio-alto dalle autorità cinesi contro le 6 città nella sola Guangdong riferite ai focolai di maggio, il rischio è decisamente serio. Se da un lato, infatti, un lockdown limitato alle attività industriali e manifatturiere potrebbe far respirare i porti e diminuire i tassi di congestione, dall’altro se il contagio dovesse invece portare a uno stop anche di terminal e hub di trasporto, l’autunno diventerebbe un incubo a livello di approvvigionamenti. E prezzi, stante la necessità di ricostruire gli stock di magazzino andati bruciati dai consumi durante i periodi di fermo. Senza contare l’interscambio commerciale record fra Germania e Cina, il quale oggi – a livello di export teutonico – è ancora secondo in termini assoluti dopo quello con Washington ma ormai solo per 8 miliardi di controvalore, dopo aver polverizzato quello tra Berlino e Parigi.

Berlino ragiona su questo. E lo fa con un occhio ben spalancato sulla competizione elettorale e l’altro sulle mosse della Bce. La quale, ottenuta la vittoria di Pirro della nuova guidance sull’inflazione, appare certa di aver vincolato la prosecuzione del Pepp – sotto altro nome e formula – fino al raggiungimento formale del 2% di inflazione e il suo consolidamento fino all’over-shooting. Ma qualcosa comincia a fare male, dalle parti della Cancelleria. E della Bundesbank, il cui numero uno infatti ha platealmente e pubblicamente votato contro la politica di tassi a zero perenni implicita nel nuovo approccio monetario dell’Eurotower.

Le due facce della medaglia del frutto avvelenato di un Qe inteso ormai come perenne, alla luce di un’inflazione che in Germania a luglio è salita al 3,8% su base annua, il massimo dal 1993. Dopo i pessimi conti presentati da Commerzbank (secondo istituto dell’indice ma con un market cap di soli 6,4 miliardi) nell’ultima trimestrale, infatti, l’indice bancario tedesco è sceso sotto quota 100, addirittura un livello inferiore a quello toccato durante la crisi finanziaria del 2008-2009. Al netto delle mille criticità possibili nel comparto, a erodere profittabilità a tal punto da imporre costi accessori sui conti correnti più elevati in ammontare è il tasso negativo sui depositi deciso dalla Banca centrale europea, a cui il tiering introdotto nel 2019 sta letteralmente facendo il solletico.

Con l’intera curva dei rendimenti obbligazionari sovrani in negativo, Deutsche Bank ha calcolato la perdita di valore implicita per un Bund trentennale acquistato oggi in base al tasso di inflazione. Se già con un 1% la perdita sarebbe attorno al 25%, giungere al nuovo obiettivo Bce del 2% implicherebbe qualcosa come il 45%. Ingestibile sul lungo termine.

La Germania stia pagando un pesante scotto all’inflazione energetica, sia a livello di costi dell’elettricità che del gas, quest’ultimo direttamente legato alla disputa geopolitica fra Ue e Russia e alla scelta di quest’ultima di inviare un segnale di minaccia tramite il dimezzamento dei flussi verso l’hub tedesco di Mallnow. Ingestibile sul lungo termine.

Insomma, visto da Berlino il terzo trimestre del 2021 già oggi appare in netta antitesi con quello dalle mille tonalità di rosa tratteggiato da Christine Lagarde e Mario Draghi, al netto della variante Delta e dei suoi stop-and-go forzati. Ed essendo quei tre mesi gli stessi che porteranno il Paese al voto legislativo, a fronte di un vantaggio della Cdu praticamente finito sott’acqua con l’alluvione delle scorse settimane, è più che probabile che Jens Weidmann arrivi al board Bce del 9 settembre con un chiaro mandato politico di rinnovata intransigenza. Quantomeno, al fine di inviare un segnale a cittadini e aziende (banche in testa) rispetto alle reali priorità che si intende imporre all’agenda. Mario Draghi e Christine Lagarde, forti della nuova guidance e del sostegno della variante Delta al Pepp, stanno forse facendo i conti senza l’oste tedesco?

Pubblicato in: Senza categoria

Usa. Inflazione. Media liberal riportano dati spesso di incomprensibile provenienza.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-06.

2021-08-02__ Bea 001

Riportiamo in fotocopia la parte di interesse del Report dell’U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2021 (Advance Estimate) and Annual Update.

Lo U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis è l’unica autorità cui compete il calcolo e la divulgazione di questa tipologia di risultati.

Da questa si evincono i seguenti macrodati:

– «The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 5.7 percent in the second quarter»

– «The PCE price index increased 6.4 percent»

– «Current-dollar personal income decreased $1.32 trillion in the second quarter, or 22.0 percent»

– «Disposable personal income decreased $1.42 trillion, or 26.1 percent, in the second quarter»

– «Real disposable personal income decreased 30.6 percent, in contrast to an increase of 57.6 percent.»

* * * * * * *

Ma la corsa ai Tips dovrebbe contarla lunga.

Poi, quando il reddito personale disponibile reale è diminuito del 30.6% sembrerebbe che la gente non sia poi così allegra come la si vorrebbe dipingere. Se infatti esistono gli investitori, grandi o piccoli che siano, sarebbe altrettanto vero ricordarsi come più della metà degli americani non abbia risorse da investire in borsa. Questi ultimi sono la carne da cannone per l’inflazione.

* * * * * * *

«Investors pour $3.2bn into inflation-protected US Treasuries»

«Relentless Tips flow distorts signals from government debt market»

«Investors poured a record $3.2bn into funds investing in US inflation-linked bonds last week, adding to a deluge of cash this year which some analysts say is distorting signals from the government debt market»

«The yield on 10-year inflation-protected US Treasuries, also known as Tips, has plumbed new depths this week, hitting an all-time low of minus 1.17 per cent on Friday»

«others have argued that market pricing has turned too pessimistic»

«Technical factors, which is where you put things that you can’t quite explain»

«he inflow recorded in the week to July 28 is the highest ever, according to analysts at Bank of America, representing 1.9 per cent of the total assets in Tips funds covered by fund tracker EPFR»

«The Tips market is just a less liquid market so it’s more liable to distortions»

«Inflation prints are up at around 4 or 5 per cent, and we don’t know how long it’s going to continue»

«The surge in prices is largely tied to the reopening of the economy and widespread shortages of supplies and labor spawned»

«Adding to the problem is a surprising shortage of labor»

«Millions of people still haven’t returned to work even with job openings at a record high»

* * * * * * *


U.S. inflation surges again in June, PCE shows, as shortages plague economy

The rate of inflation has climbed 4% in the past year, the highest level in 13 years.

The numbers: Inflation in the U.S. rose sharply again in June and the increase over the past year remained at a 13-year high, raising the cost of living for consumers and casting a shadow over a strong economic recovery.

The so-called PCE price index rose a sharp 0.5% in June, government figures show.

It was the fourth big upturn in a row and kept the increase over the past 12 months at 4%. That’s the highest level since 2008 and double the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

A separate measure of inflation, the consumer price index, is running even hotter.

The surge in prices is largely tied to the reopening of the economy and widespread shortages of supplies and labor spawned by the pandemic. Americans are spending gobs of money and getting out and about, but businesses can’t keep up with all the demand.

The PCE index is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.

Big picture: The economy is growing rapidly, but there’s a big mismatch between how much customers want to buy and how much businesses can produce. That yawning divide is what’s triggered the surge in inflation.

The biggest hurdle is a lack of key business supplies such as computer chips. These shortages have driven up prices and put pressure on companies to pass the costs onto customers.

Adding to the problem is a surprising shortage of labor. Millions of people still haven’t returned to work even with job openings at a record high. Some companies have had to boost wages or reduce hours to cope with the labor shortage.

The Federal Reserve has said for months inflation would subside as the bottlenecks eased and the central bank is sticking to that view. Yet Chairman Jerome Powell finally acknowledged on Thursday that what he’s called “transitory” inflation could stay high longer than the Fed had anticipated, perhaps well into next year.

The central bank has vastly underestimated the increase in inflation in 2021. Last December it was forecasting just a 1.8% increase.

Key details: The increase in inflation this year got its start from rising oil prices, but the cost of many goods and services are going up.

A separate measure of inflation that strips out volatile food and energy prices as climbed to the highest level since 1992. The core PCE price index rose 0.4% in June, a touch below Wall Street’s forecast.

The increase over the past 12 months crept up to 3.5% from 3.4%, but it appears to show signs of moderating. The core measure is viewed by the Fed as a better indicator of underlying inflation.

What they are saying? “Price pressures should abate over coming months as supply chain dislocations ease and the reopening effect fades,” said chief U.S. economist Rubeela Farooqi of High Frequency Economics.

“Core prices are still running hot but have decelerated in the past two months,” said senior economist Sal Guatieri of BMO Capital Markets. “This will give the Fed some comfort in its transitory story.”

Investors appear to have taken a wait-and-see approach on inflation. Stocks are still rising and yields on U.S. Treasurys bonds have actually declined over the past few months.

* * *


US consumers boost spending 1% as inflation remains high

American consumers increased their spending by 1% in June — a dose of energy for an economy that is quickly rebounding from the pandemic recession but is facing new risks led by the delta variant of the coronavirus.

Washington — American consumers increased their spending by 1% in June — a dose of energy for an economy that is quickly rebounding from the pandemic recession but is facing new risks led by the delta variant of the coronavirus.

At the same time, a key inflation barometer that is closely followed by the Federal Reserve surged 3.5% last month from a year earlier. That was the fastest such 12-month surge since 1991.

June’s solid increase in consumer spending provided further evidence that consumers are driving a strengthening recovery from the pandemic recession.

Friday’s report from the Commerce Department also showed that personal incomes, which provide the fuel for spending, edged up 0.1% in June after two months of big declines, reflecting the waning of several government support programs.

In its report on consumer spending in June, the government said that goods purchases rose a modest 0.5%, while spending on services increased a stronger 1.2%. As vaccinations have increased and the economy has increasingly reopened, more Americans have been shifting their spending away from the physical goods that many purchased while hunkered down at home to to spending on services, from haircuts to airline tickets to restaurant meals.

As a whole, household spending has been powering a robust economic recovery from the pandemic recession. On Thursday, the government estimated that the economy grew at a solid 6.5% annual rate last quarter — and consumer spending drove much of the gain: It advanced at an powerful 11.8% annual rate in the April-June quarter as more Americans left home to shop, travel and eat out.

The rise in spending has fueled businesses’ need for workers, and in many cases they can’t find enough people to fill jobs. Still, last month, America’s employers added a robust 850,000 jobs, and average hourly pay rose a solid 3.6% compared with a year earlier, faster than the pre-pandemic annual pace.

Yet the economy’s prospects are now clouded by the threat of a resurgent coronavirus in the form of the highly contagious delta variant. The U.S. is now averaging about 67,000 confirmed new cases a day, up from only about 12,000 a month ago. Should a surge in viral infections cause many consumers to retreat back to their homes and pull back on spending, it would weaken the recovery.

But many analysts say they think any economic damage inflicted by the delta variant will be offset by consumers still eager to spend some of the savings they accumulated during the pandemic lockdowns. The savings rate in June — 9.4% of after-tax incomes — represents a high level compared with pre-pandemic rates. During the months of lockdowns, households cut back on their debt and accumulated a hefty $2.5 trillion in savings.

“Consumers have very strong balance sheets coming out of the pandemic, which will fuel strong consumer spending and economic growth in the next few years,” said Bill Adams, senior economist at PNC Financial. He noted that the surge in COVID-19 cases was occurring primarily in Southern states that are less likely to re-impose restrictions on businesses.

Adams said he believed that continued strong consumer spending in the second half of the year would increase economic expansion for the year as a whole to around 6.6%. That would mark the strongest calendar-year growth since the mid-1980s.

At the same time, though, rising inflation poses another risk to optimistic forecasts. The inflation index that showed a 3.5% rise year-over-year for June — an index that the Fed monitors most closely — excludes volatile food and energy prices. A separate price index that includes all such items rose by an even larger 4% over the past 12 months. That was the largest such increase since 2008.

But at a news conference this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell underscored his belief that recent inflation readings reflect mainly temporary price spikes in a narrow range of categories — from used cars and airline tickets to hotel rooms and auto rentals — that have been distorted by supply shortages related to the economy’s swift reopening. Those shortages involve items like furniture, appliances, clothing and computer chips, among others.

“Price pressures should abate over coming months as supply-chain dislocations ease,” agreed Rubeela Faroqui, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.

The Biden administration is predicting that consumers will keep spending and provide vital support for the economy for the rest of this year, even as trillions of dollars in government support wind down.

Many outside economists agree. Millions of households will continue to receive child tax credit payments that have begun to be distributed. And many affluent households have benefited from a vast increase in their wealth resulting from surging home equity and stock market gains and seem inclined to spend some portion of it.

The economy is also receiving substantial support from the Fed. This week, the central bank reaffirmed that it will maintain its key short-term interest rate at a record low near zero to keep short-term borrowing costs low. It will also continue to buy government-backed bonds to put downward pressure on long-term loan rates to encourage borrowing and spending.

* * *


Investors pour $3.2bn into inflation-protected US Treasuries

Relentless Tips flow distorts signals from government debt market.

Investors poured a record $3.2bn into funds investing in US inflation-linked bonds last week, adding to a deluge of cash this year which some analysts say is distorting signals from the government debt market. The yield on 10-year inflation-protected US Treasuries, also known as Tips, has plumbed new depths this week, hitting an all-time low of minus 1.17 per cent on Friday. The collapse has come amid a global debt rally which has left investors searching for explanations. While some worry that very low real yields — which measures the returns investors can expect once inflation is taken into account — are warning of a sharp slowdown in growth as the Delta coronavirus variant spreads, others have argued that market pricing has turned too pessimistic as the US economy continues its strong rebound. They have pointed to technical factors in markets to explain the rally, although this idea was rejected by Jay Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, on Wednesday. “Technical factors, which is where you put things that you can’t quite explain,” he quipped about the rally in government debt after the Federal Open Market Committee ended its latest meeting. The relentless flows in Tips — a relatively small and illiquid asset class compared with the wider Treasury market — may be “distorting” the economic signal from real yields, according to Salman Ahmed, global head of macro and strategic asset allocation at Fidelity International. “Is the level of real yields telling us something worrying about the macro environment? I’m not so sure,” Ahmed said. “Given the size of the flows, I’m not sure you can take the economic signal at face value.” The inflow recorded in the week to July 28 is the highest ever, according to analysts at Bank of America, representing 1.9 per cent of the total assets in Tips funds covered by fund tracker EPFR. Inflows so far this year total 16.6 per cent of assets under management in these funds.

Investors have also blamed quiet summer trading conditions and continued bond purchases by the Fed and other central banks for the rally. Those factors, along with inflows from investors, may be particularly pertinent for Tips, according to ING strategist Antoine Bouvet. “The Tips market is just a less liquid market so it’s more liable to distortions,” he said, adding that a succession of very high inflation readings in the US is likely continuing to fuel demand for Tips. “Inflation prints are up at around 4 or 5 per cent, and we don’t know how long it’s going to continue. It’s a risk that a lot of investors will want to hedge.” Hefty inflows into inflation-linked bonds may also help explain why real yields are apparently flashing a warning signal about the economy at a time when other asset classes appear more upbeat, Ahmed said. The S&P 500 index closed near its all-time high on Thursday. Gold, which typically benefits from low real rates and concerns about inflation, has fallen back to $1,828 a troy ounce, from its high for the year of $1,916 in May.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Unione Europea

ECB. Weidmann e Wunsch votano contro la Lagarde sui tassi di interesse.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-07-26.

Michelangelo. Sistina. Dannati. 001

Il Consiglio dei Governatori per la prima volta nella sua storia si è spaccato in due.

Mr Jens Weidmann, Governatore della Bundesbank, e Mr Pierre Wunsch, Governatore della banca centrale belga, hanno votato contro la risoluzione presa dal Consiglio dei Governatori di continuare sine die la politica ultra-espansiva.

* * * * * * *

«Jens Weidmann si è detto preoccupato dall’idea di un contesto Bce di bassi tassi d’interesse estesi troppo a lungo, aggiungendo che i suoi esperti stimano un’inflazione vicina al 5% in Germania a fine anno»

«la questione ha generato un dibattito insolitamente acceso»

«Weidmann ha detto che il consiglio direttivo Bce ha concordato in linea di principio che è giusto ora adottare una politica monetaria espansiva»

«I miei esperti prevedono che l’inflazione in Germania si dirigerà verso il 5% entro la fine del 2021»

«there was consensus in the Governing Council that “an expansive monetary policy is currently appropriate”»

«the potentially too long update of the low interest rate environment is too extensive»

«The central bank is now aiming for an annual rate of inflation of two percent in the medium term for the 19 countries in the euro area – and over a longer period of time if possible»

«it also accepts that inflation is temporarily moderately above the target value»

«the Belgian central bank chief Pierre Wunsch had already said that the central bank’s new interest rate promise was going too far for him»

«It worries about credibility, he told CNBC television»

«I don’t know whether it will be appropriate to have negative interest rates in three, four, five or seven years»

* * * * * * *

Weidmann. ECB dovrebbe ridurre gli stimoli dettati dalla emergenza.

De Nederlandsche Bank. Presidente Knot. ECB tapering entro il marzo2022.

Zona Euro – Indice dei prezzi alla produzione (Annuale) +9.6%.

ECB’s Knot Warns Central Bank Could Be Underestimating Inflation

ECB. Italia. Inflazione e rialzo dei tassi destabilizzerebbero il sistema. Default, per essere chiari.

Inflazione. Sorella miseria si fa precedere dalla comare inflazione. Adesso anche l’UK.

Stagflazione. Uno dei tanti cigni neri che si aggirano come avvoltoi.

Fed. Che l’inflazione alta sia temporanea è un ‘article of faith’. – Bloomberg.

Finanza occidentale. Etf. Uno dei drammi della liquidità delle banche centrali.

* * * * * * *

L’enclave liberal socialista, che al momento governa gli stati occidentali, si è cacciata in un vicolo cieco, da cui ne uscirà ad ossa rotte.

Attualmente le grandi banche ed i maggiori gestori hanno circa 7,000 miliardi allocati in Etf.Un investimento lucroso sotto la condizione che i listini di borsa salgano in continuazione: per poter sopravvivere avrebbero bisogno di u eterno intervento della banca centrale. In carenza, quei tre trilioni svanirebbero in quel nulla da cui sono stati generati. Sarebbe il crollo dell’occidente.

D’altra parte, invece, l’inflazione sta crescendo incontrollata: senza interventi politici e finanziari si corre il serio pericolo che alla fine distrugga tutto il sistema economico occidentale.

Il problema politico consiste nel cerare di frenare la crescita dei prezzi delle materie prime.

Quello finanziario, d’altro canto, imporrebbe la cessazione degli interventi delle banche centrali ed il ritorno a tassi di interesse di mercato.

* * *

L’elemento nuovo consiste nella rivolta di Herr Weidmann, Mr Wunsch ed Herr Knot contro le decisioni prese dalla ECB. Questi ultimi temono, giustamente a nostro sommesso avviso, che l’inflazione prenda a galoppare.

*


Weidmann and Wunsch were against the new ECB guidance

He is concerned about the decisions of the ECB on interest rate policy.

Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann voted against the monetary policy decisions of the Governing Council on Thursday. For him, “the potentially too long update of the low interest rate environment is too extensive,” he told the “Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung”. However, there was consensus in the Governing Council that “an expansive monetary policy is currently appropriate”.

The central bank is now aiming for an annual rate of inflation of two percent in the medium term for the 19 countries in the euro area – and over a longer period of time if possible. In doing so, it also accepts that inflation is temporarily moderately above the target value. Previously, the ECB’s inflation target was “below, but close to, two percent”.

Before Weidmann, the Belgian central bank chief Pierre Wunsch had already said that the central bank’s new interest rate promise was going too far for him. It worries about credibility, he told CNBC television. “I don’t know whether it will be appropriate to have negative interest rates in three, four, five or seven years.”

Weidmann, meanwhile, is initially expecting a sharp rise in the inflation rate. “My experts expect rates for Germany, for example, by the end of 2021 that could go in the direction of five percent.” Here, however, mainly temporary effects are at work.

* * *


ECB: Bundesbank boss Jens Weidmann votes against ECB resolutions

The European Central Bank (ECB) wants to stay in extremely loose monetary policy for a long time – this was clarified by central bank chief Christine Lagarde after the Council’s interest rate meeting. But not all committee members want to come along. Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann voted against the resolutions on monetary policy outlook. For him, “the potential for too long a continuation of the low interest rate environment is too vast,” he said in an interview with the “Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung”.

However, in principle, there is agreement in the ECB Council that a broad monetary policy is appropriate today, Weidmann said. His council colleague Pierre Wunsch, who heads Belgium’s central bank, also rejected the view. From his perspective also, the ECB was too strictly committed to this in advance.

Adjusting the interest rate outlook became necessary after monetary authorities set a new inflation target two weeks ago as part of their review strategy. The ECB is now aiming for two per cent inflation in the medium term. So far, the goal is just under two percent. Central bankers now want, among other things, to keep their core interest rates at present or a lower level until they see that inflation reaches two per cent and then stay that way.

In the interview, Weidmann also commented on the development of the inflation rate. He expects inflation to rise in the near future. “My experts expect rates for Germany by the end of 2021

to be in the direction of five per cent,” he said. But mainly temporary effects work. However, in the longer term, you need to “watch carefully” the various factors.

For the entire euro area, the ECB has so far assumed an inflation rate of 1.9 per cent for this year. He also expects prices to continue to rise over the next few months. However, for next year, a weak rate of 1.5 per cent is now expected, followed by 1.4 per cent in 2023.

* * *


Bce, Weidmann contrario a tassi d’interesse bassi troppo a lungo

Jens Weidmann si è detto preoccupato dall’idea di un contesto Bce di bassi tassi d’interesse estesi troppo a lungo, aggiungendo che i suoi esperti stimano un’inflazione vicina al 5% in Germania a fine anno.

Weidmann, governatore della banca centrale tedesca, è uno dei due membri del consiglio direttivo Bce, composto da 25 membri, che ieri si è opposto alla nuova guidance sui tassi d’interesse, anche se la questione ha generato un dibattito insolitamente acceso.

In un’intervista con il quotidiano tedesco Frankfurter Allgemeine – di cui sono state pubblicate oggi delle anticipazioni – Weidmann ha detto che il consiglio direttivo Bce ha concordato in linea di principio che è giusto ora adottare una politica monetaria espansiva.

“I miei esperti prevedono che l’inflazione in Germania si dirigerà verso il 5% entro la fine del 2021”, ha aggiunto durante l’intervista.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Europa. I macrodati odierni hanno spinto l’Eur-Usd a 1.186.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-06-30.

2021-06-30__ Europa 001

Questa mattina le banche centrali di molti stati europei hanno rilasciato una salva di macrodati inerenti il taso di inflazione in Europa.

Eurozona. Indice dei prezzi al consumo.

Italia. Indice dei Prezzi al Consumo.

Italia. Indice dei prezzi alla produzione.

Francia. Indice dei prezzi al consumo.

Regno Unito. Prodotto interno lordo.

Germania. Tasso di disoccupazione tedesco.

Sono ben poco confortanti, anche perché presentano delle incoerenze interne. La versione ufficiale è che l’inflazione sia un dato marginale nella eurozona. Conveniamo che il prezzo delle pietre focaie, degli acciarini, dei foconi, della biada e dei ventilabri sia rimasto invariato. In fondo, tutto soggiace al paniere scelto per acquisire il macrodato.

Ma, solo per citare la Francia,

«Prices for energy were up 10.9%, with prices for tobacco rising by 5.3% year-on-year»

Ci si domanda come un simile aumento dell’energia non si sia ripercosso sull’indice dei prezzi alla produzione e, quindi, su quello dei prezzi a consumo.

*


Economic Data from France and Germany Failed to Impress the EUR

Inflation and unemployment figures were in focus in the early part of the European session this morning. Later today, prelim June inflation figures for the Eurozone will also draw interest, as sensitivity to inflation lingers.

                         French Inflation.

In June, the annual rate of inflation ticked up from 1.4% to 1.5% based on prelim figures. This was in line with forecasts.

According to Insee.fr,

– Prices for energy were up 10.9%, with prices for tobacco rising by 5.3% year-on-year.

– Food prices were down by 0.3%, with prices for fresh food (-3.4%) weighing.

– Month-on-month, consumer prices increased by 0.2% after having risen by 0.3% in May.

                         German Unemployment.

In June, unemployment fell by 38k, following on from a 19k decline in May. Economists had forecast a more modest 20k fall. In spite of the larger than expected drop, the unemployment rate held steady at 5.9%.

                         Market Impact.

Ahead of today’s stats, the EUR had risen to a pre-stat and current day high $1.19090 before falling to a pre-stat low $1.18960.

In response to the French inflation figures, the EUR rose to a post-stat high $1.19081 before falling to a current day low $1.18931.

The EUR found support, however, with unemployment change figures from Germany beating forecasts. With unemployment holding steady at 5.9%, the upside to the EUR is likely to be limited ahead of the Eurozone inflation figures.

Recovering from the current day low, the EUR rose to a post-stat high $1.19050 before easing back

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.05% to $1.19022.