Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo

Francia. Gilet Gialli di nuovo in piazza. L’Egemone ne fa arrestare 128.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-09-13.

Paris. Saint-Denis. Monumento funebre in onore di Luigi XVI e Maria Antonietta.

Ecco alcuni macrodati francesi

– Q2. Pil -13.8%, trimestre su trimestre

– Settembre. Trade Balance -7.0 miliardi.

– Luglio. Immatricolazioni auto. -19.8% anno su anno

* * * * * * *

Ci sarebbero tutti i motivi per una nuova presa della Bastiglia.

«C’è chi ha parlato di una dittatura»

Esatto. L’Egemone si comporta da dittatore della Francia.

Che rimetta in sesto l’economia invece di blaterare di politica estera: tanto nessuno lo sta a sentire.

*


I Gilet Gialli tornano in piazza a Parigi: 128 arresti.

Il prefetto ammonisce: “Manifestare sì ma senza violenza e danneggiamenti”.

Tornano in Francia le tensioni per le manifestazioni dei Gilt gialli, che hanno deciso di protestare oggi a Parigi. La polizia ha reso noto di aver già effettuato 128 arresti. L’emittente Bfm Tv, citando i dati della prefettura della capitale, fa sapere che molti di questi arresti sono scattati in via preventiva, già prima dell’inizio delle manifestazioni. 

Del resto, il prefetto di Parigi, Didier Lallement, aveva ammonito che non avrebbe tollerato “distruzioni e caos sugli Champs-Elysées”, dove due manifestazioni sono state vietate. 

Sono 2.300 le persone che hanno indicato di voler partecipare al raduno convocato sugli Champs-Elysées dal movimento e 7 mila quelle che hanno semplicemente espresso interesse, secondo la pagina Facebook dell’evento.

Fonti della polizia dicono che a Parigi sono attesi 4-5 mila, di cui mille potenzialmente violenti.

Altre due manifestazioni, convocate dal movimento, sono state autorizzate: a Place de la Bourse, nel centro di Parigi e a Place Wagram. I gilet gialli hanno invitato a radunarsi anche a Place Saint-Pierre, ai piedi della basilica del Sacro Cuore a Montmartre. 

“C’è chi ha parlato di una dittatura, ma faccio notare che ci sono possibilità di manifestazioni, a condizione che si svolgano pacificamente, che non ci siano distruzioni”, ha detto il prefetto in un punto stampa. 

In vista delle manifestazioni di oggi, una trentina di stazioni della metropolitana parigina sono state chiuse, su richiesta della questura. 

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

EU. Coronavirus. Il secondo picco è evidente. Francia 8,975 nuovi casi, Spagna 4,503.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-09-05.

2020-09-05__Francia 001

«September 4 (GMT)

Updates

8,975 new cases and 18 new deaths in France. There is a discrepancy between the number of deaths reported by the French Government and the data released by the French National Public Health Agency which shows a decrease compared to September 3. If necessary we will adjust our data once the discrepancy is solved    [source] [source]» [Worldometers]

*


2020-09-05__Francia 002        

COVID-19 situation update for the EU/EEA and the UK, as of 4 September 2020

«As of 04 September 2020, 2 304 846 cases have been reported in the EU/EEA and the UK: Spain (488 513), United Kingdom (340 411), France (300 181), Italy (272 912), Germany (246 948), Romania (91 256), Belgium (86 450), Sweden (84 729), Netherlands (72 392), Poland (69 129), Portugal (59 051), Ireland (29 206), Austria (28 495), Czechia (26 452), Denmark (17 374), Bulgaria (16 617), Croatia (11 094), Norway (11 035), Greece (10 998), Finland (8 200), Hungary (6 923), Luxembourg (6 745), Slovakia (4 163), Slovenia (3 041), Lithuania (2 978), Estonia (2 444), Iceland (2 128), Malta (1 965), Cyprus (1 498), Latvia (1 410) and Liechtenstein (108).

As of 04 September 2020, 182 358 deaths have been reported in the EU/EEA and the UK: United Kingdom (41 527), Italy (35 507), France (30 706), Spain (29 234), Belgium (9 899), Germany (9 319), Netherlands (6 226), Sweden (5 832), Romania (3 765), Poland (2 092), Portugal (1 829), Ireland (1 777), Austria (735), Bulgaria (648), Denmark (626), Hungary (620), Czechia (426), Finland (335), Greece (278), Norway (264), Croatia (194), Slovenia (129), Luxembourg (124), Lithuania (86), Estonia (64), Slovakia (37), Latvia (34), Cyprus (21), Malta (13), Iceland (10) and Liechtenstein (1).»

*

Coronavirus: Spagna, 4.503 nuovi casi in 24 ore

«Il ministero della Salute spagnolo ha notificato 4.503 nuovi casi di coronavirus nelle ultime 24 ore, rispetto ai 3.607 di giovedì. Lo riferisce La Vanguardia. La quota maggiore dei nuovi contagi, 1.462, sono stati registrati a Madrid. Sono 256 i morti durante l’ultima settimana.»

 

* * * * * * *

Sia in Francia, sia in Spagna, sia nel resto della EU/EAA il secondo picco di pandemia sembrerebbe essere chiaro ed evidente. Sulla scorta della sua evoluzione nel tempo potremmo anche assistere a nuovi lockdown.

Se si arrivasse a nuove chiusure ne deriverebbe un massacro del sistema economico: in caso contrario, sarebbe stata dimostrata la inutilità di tale procedura.

Pubblicato in: Economia e Produzione Industriale, Stati Uniti

Usa. Agosto. Vendite annualizzate autoveicoli nazionali 15.2 milioni.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-09-02.  

2020-09-02__ Usa Auto 001

Motor Intelligence ha rilasciato i dati annualizzati relativi alle vendite di autoveicoli fabbricati negli Usa.

Ad agosto erano stati venduti 15.2 milioni di veicoli di produzione nazionale, dato annualizzato, valore di poco inferiore ai 16.7 milioni annualizzati riportati al 1° di aprile.

In questo settore la ripresa sembrerebbe essere cosa fatta.

2020-09-02__ Usa Auto 002

* * * * * *

Solo per comparazione, si guardino gli andamenti delle vendite di autovetture nei principali stati del blocco europeo. Francia -19.8%, Germania -32.3%, Italia -23.1%.

2020-09-01__ Immatricolazioni Auto 001

Pubblicato in: Agricoltura, Commercio, Diplomazia, Russia

Egitto compra 530,000 tonnellate di grano dalla Russia.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-09-02.

Egitto 012

«Egypt buys a record amount of Russia’s bumper wheat crop»

«Egypt’s state-run buyer bought 530,000 tons»

«Russia’s big harvest is crowding out rivals this season »

«Egypt scooped up a record amount of Russian wheat Tuesday as a near-record harvest helps the Black Sea nation’s grain expand its dominance over rival suppliers»

«Egypt’s state buyer booked 530,000 tons of Russian wheat in a tender»

«Russia’s attractive supplies make up 80% of Egypt’s purchases so far this season, compared with about half at a similar time last year.»

«Russia is nearing the end of its harvest, which is expected to approach 2017’s record haul and help the nation reclaim its ranking as the world’s top exporter»

«In contrast, Ukraine’s crop has fallen slightly from a year earlier, and production plummeted in France and Romania, making Russian supplies more competitive.»

«Egypt hasn’t booked wheat from countries outside Russia since early August, and offers from the European Union have been scant in recent months»

«Russian grain also has benefited from the ruble’s decline against the dollar, while a stronger euro has made supplies from shippers like France less appealing»

«Competitors can’t keep up with the prices we are offering»

«Rising agricultural purchases in China also have bolstered crop prices»

* * * * * * *


Riassumiamo.

– La Russia è uno dei principali fornitori mondiali di granaglie, specialmente del grano

– La agricoltura russa riesce ad aumentare costantemente la produzione e la diplomazia la aiuta a piazzarne all’estero le eccedenze: è progettata per l’export

– La supervalutazione dell’euro pone fuori mercato il grano francese

* * * * * * *

La Russia in venti anni si è conquistata una figura preminente a livello mondiale nell’export di energetici e di prodotti agricoli, ossia di beni assolutamente indispensabili: strategici. Mr Putin ha costituito due tipologie di prodotti che dovrebbero reggere molto bene anche in futuro.

*


Egypt Buys a Record Amount of Russia’s Bumper Wheat Crop.

– Egypt’s state-run buyer bought 530,000 tons on Tuesday

– Russia’s big harvest is crowding out rivals this season

*

Egypt scooped up a record amount of Russian wheat Tuesday as a near-record harvest helps the Black Sea nation’s grain expand its dominance over rival suppliers.

Egypt’s state buyer booked 530,000 tons of Russian wheat in a tender, the most from the country in data compiled by Bloomberg going back to the 2012-13 season. Russia’s attractive supplies make up 80% of Egypt’s purchases so far this season, compared with about half at a similar time last year.

Russia is nearing the end of its harvest, which is expected to approach 2017’s record haul and help the nation reclaim its ranking as the world’s top exporter. In contrast, Ukraine’s crop has fallen slightly from a year earlier, and production plummeted in France and Romania, making Russian supplies more competitive.

Egypt hasn’t booked wheat from countries outside Russia since early August, and offers from the European Union have been scant in recent months. That trend may continue for a while, according to the Russian Grain Union.

“There’s potential for things to go on like that in future,” said Alexander Korbut, vice president at the union. “A very good crop is expected, and growers are increasingly interested in selling it.”

Russian grain also has benefited from the ruble’s decline against the dollar, while a stronger euro has made supplies from shippers like France less appealing. Only Russian and Ukrainian wheat was offered in Egypt’s tender Tuesday.

Russian exports are accelerating after a slow start to the season as crop estimates improve, according to Rabobank International. The country’s shipments are down 9% so far this season, according to the latest data from the government’s grain quality center.

“It’s great to have such a big buyer, especially when demand elsewhere has been rather low,” said Dmitry Rylko, director general at the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies, or IKAR. “Competitors can’t keep up with the prices we are offering.”

Still, prices rose compared with Egypt’s previous tender, which partly may reflect improving global demand, Paris-based adviser Agritel said in a note.

Tenders have picked up in recent weeks across other importers, including Turkey and Pakistan, and Jordan is seeking the grain in a tender later Wednesday. Rising agricultural purchases in China also have bolstered crop prices, and the Bloomberg Grains Spot Subindex is at a five-month high.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo

Francia. Secondo Trimestre. Pil -13.8% QoQ, -18.9% YoY.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-08-29.

Notre Dame Paris 001

In sintesi.

– Pil 2020Q2 -13.8% QoQ, trimestre attuale sul precedente

– Pil 2020Q2 -18.9%, YoY, dato corrente contro quello dell’anno precedente.

*

«In Q2, GDP nosedived a historic 13.8% in seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms»

«On an annual basis, GDP contracted 19.0% in Q2, down markedly from the previous period’s 5.7% contraction.»

«Household spending fell 11.0% in the second quarter, which was below the first quarter’s 5.8% contraction»

«public consumption dropped at a quicker rate of 8.0% in Q2 (Q1: -3.5% s.a. qoq)»

«fixed investment declined at a more pronounced rate of 17.8% in Q2, from the 10.3% decrease logged in the previous quarter»

«exports of goods and services plunged 25.5% in Q2 (Q1: -6.1% s.a. qoq)»

«imports of goods and services declined at a sharper rate of 17.3% in Q2 (Q1: -5.5% s.a. qoq)»

* * * * * * *


Sono dati cimiteriali, gli effetti dei quali si riverbereranno nel futuro, causando, tra l’altro, un conseguente crollo del gettito fiscale.

Gli osservatori occidentali attribuiscono la ‘colpa‘ di questo crollo al coronavirus:

«it depends heavily on the epidemiology of the virus»

 

Questa è una affermazione falsa. Portiamo l’esempio della Cina:

– Pil 2020Q2 +3.2% anno su anno

– Export. Agosto. +7.2%, anno su anno.

Eppure, anche la Cina ha subito la crisi da Covid-19, il conseguente lock down, ed ha dovuto anche essa affrontare la crisi dei commerci internazionali.

L’unica differenza è che i francesi hanno per presidente Mr Macron mentre i cinesi hanno Mr Xi Jinping.

*


Francia – PIL 2Q20 crolla del 13,8% t/t e -18,9% a/a (dato finale).

Nel secondo trimestre del 2020 il Pil in Francia (dato finale) ha registrato un crollo del 13,8% su base trimestrale, in linea con il consensus e con il dato preliminare.

Su base tendenziale, il Pil del secondo trimestre 2020 ha messo in evidenza un crollo ancora più marcato pari al 18,9%, lievemente inferiore al -19% del consensus e del preliminare.

*


France: GDP records largest drop on record in Q2.

The economy contracted at the sharpest rate on record in the second quarter as the pandemic and associated containment measures wreaked havoc on activity. In Q2, GDP nosedived a historic 13.8% in seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms, according to a preliminary estimate on 31 July. The result marked the third consecutive quarterly contraction (Q1 2020: -5.9% seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter) and the sharpest drop on record. That said, the print beat market analysts’ expectations of a 15.3% decline. On an annual basis, GDP contracted 19.0% in Q2, down markedly from the previous period’s 5.7% contraction.

The downturn was broad-based as the lockdown to halt the spread of the virus reached into all areas of the economy. Household spending fell 11.0% in the second quarter, which was below the first quarter’s 5.8% contraction. Moreover, public consumption dropped at a quicker rate of 8.0% in Q2 (Q1: -3.5% s.a. qoq), while fixed investment declined at a more pronounced rate of 17.8% in Q2, from the 10.3% decrease logged in the previous quarter.

On the external front, exports of goods and services plunged 25.5% in Q2 (Q1: -6.1% s.a. qoq) amid a depressed global trading environment and disrupted supply chains. In addition, imports of goods and services declined at a sharper rate of 17.3% in Q2 (Q1: -5.5% s.a. qoq). Taken together, the external sector as a whole subtracted 2.3 percentage points from the headline reading, following the 0.1 percentage point subtraction in Q1.

Commenting on the outlook for the French economy, Tullia Bucco, economist at UniCredit Bank, noted:

“While GDP has troughed, the pace of normalization of economic activity remains surrounded by great uncertainty since it depends heavily on the epidemiology of the virus. We expect that a relatively rapid technical rebound in 3Q20 might be followed by materially slower growth later this year as the medium to longer-term costs of the crisis become clearer. Manufacturing sectors more dependent on foreign demand, such as aeronautics, luxury goods and alcoholic beverages, are already visibly struggling to recover past losses in activity, and will most likely face subdued demand for a protracted period of time. Meanwhile, the relatively rapid recovery underway in the service sectors could lose a lot of traction as pent-up demand is exhausted and it remains exposed to possible reversals in the behavior of households and businesses.”

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project GDP contracting 9.5% in 2020, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2021, they see it rebounding and expanding 6.7%.

*


French savings surged, profits plunge in record second-quarter GDP slump: INSEE.

(Reuters) – French household savings skyrocketed while businesses’ profits plunged in the second quarter amid a coronavirus lockdown, the INSEE stats agency said on Friday, confirming the economy contracted 13.8% in the three months through June.

One of Europe’s strictest lockdowns put the euro zone’s second biggest economy into an unprecedented tailspin in the quarter. It had already contracted 5.9% in the previous three months.

With most shops, cafes and hotels closed from mid-March to May 11, unspent cash pushed the household savings rate up to a record 27.4% of disposable income, while consumer spending – the traditional driver of the French economy – dropped 16.4% in the quarter.

Meanwhile, in the corporate sector, companies saw their profit margins fall to 26%, the lowest since the end of 1983, INSEE’s data showed.

After most businesses were able to reopen in May, activity quickly surged, although there has been some signs that the catch-up is easing after the initial rebound.

Going into the third quarter, consumer spending rose 0.5% in July from June, slowing from a surge of 10.3% in June, INSEE said in a second release. That fell short of economists’ average forecast for an increase of 2.0% in a Reuters poll.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Renault. In sei mesi, perdite nette di 7.29 miliardi di euro.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-08-04.

Gufo

«French carmaker Renault (RENA.PA) said it had been given a wake-up call on Thursday with a record net loss of 7.29 billion euros ($8.6 billion) in the first half of the year, inflicted by the COVID-19 crisis and troubles at its alliance partner Nissan (7201.T).»

«Global automakers have been hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic, which has shuttered factories and kept many customers away from car dealerships.»

«But the Renault-Nissan alliance has been hit especially hard as it was already weakened by low margins and boardroom turmoil surrounding Carlos Ghosn, the architect of the alliance who was ousted in 2018»

«Today’s results will be a disturbing wake up call, …. We are currently touching the bottom of a negative curve that started several years ago, and probably even earlier»

«De Meo said the company would now double down on a previously announced turnaround plan, laying off thousands of workers, reducing the range of models, and improving cooperation between alliance partners on vehicle production»

«Sales slumped 34.9%, a result the company attributed mainly to the global COVID crisis and Renault burned through $6.38 billion in cash over the first half»

* * * * * * *

Nei paesi occidentali ed occidentalizzati il mercato delle automobili è da anni in una profonda crisi. I sistemi economici di questi paesi non riescono a stare al passo con l’evolversi dei tempi, i regimi fiscali sono vessatori e leggi, normative e regolamenti strozzano le capacità produttive. Si aggiunga anche come questo  mercato sia fortemente penalizzato dal tentativo di applicare le conseguenze di concezioni ideologiche che lo demonizzano.

Capitolo a parte, ma non per questo di trascurabile entità, il mercato dei carburanti è considerato dai governi alla stregua di un bancomat da cui prelevare ad ogni piè sospinto. Nuove tasse e nuove accise.

Tuttavia, al di là dell’entità della perdita, sarebbe doveroso ricordare anche una gestione non certo cristallina dell’impresa.

*


Renault handed ‘wake-up call’ with record 7 billion euro loss.

French carmaker Renault (RENA.PA) said it had been given a wake-up call on Thursday with a record net loss of 7.29 billion euros ($8.6 billion) in the first half of the year, inflicted by the COVID-19 crisis and troubles at its alliance partner Nissan (7201.T).

Global automakers have been hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic, which has shuttered factories and kept many customers away from car dealerships.

But the Renault-Nissan alliance has been hit especially hard as it was already weakened by low margins and boardroom turmoil surrounding Carlos Ghosn, the architect of the alliance who was ousted in 2018.

Renault shares were down 3.3% when trading opened in Paris.

“Today’s results will be a disturbing wake up call,” CEO Luca de Meo, the former Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE) executive who started at Renault this month, said on a call with analysts.

“We are currently touching the bottom of a negative curve that started several years ago, and probably even earlier,” de Meo added.

“We are in a complex, difficult situation. We all are. But … we were already, I would say, feverish. So for sure it is even harder for us.”

TWISTY ROAD

De Meo said the company would now double down on a previously announced turnaround plan, laying off thousands of workers, reducing the range of models, and improving cooperation between alliance partners on vehicle production.

He said a team of 40 senior executives from across Renault was cloistered on the top floor of the company’s headquarters in Boulogne-Billancourt near Paris, working on details of a strategic plan which will be presented in January at the latest.

He said his focus would be pushing the Renault brands that can deliver profits – especially compact cars, SUV crossovers, and electric and hybrid vehicles – and shifting emphasis from volume to value.

“We know what we need to do,” de Meo said. “Better times are waiting at the end of this twisty road.”

Renault said group operating losses, factoring out the effect of Nissan’s losses, reached 2 billion euros in the first half, compared with operating income of 1.5 billion last year.

Sales slumped 34.9%, a result the company attributed mainly to the global COVID crisis and Renault burned through $6.38 billion in cash over the first half.

Nissan Motor Co (7201.T) this week warned of a record $4.5 billion operating loss this year and its lowest sales in a decade. Its negative contribution accounted for 4.82 billion of Renault’s net losses, the French firm said on Thursday.

Renault’s performance was worse than investors had expected. Analysts’ consensus forecasts were for a net loss of around 5 billion euros and operating losses of 1.8 billion euros, according to Refinitiv data.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Francia. Secondo Trimestre. Pil -13.8% QoQ, -19% YoY. Recessione.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-07-31.

2020-07-31__ Francia Pil 001

In sintesi.

– Francia. Pil. -13.8% trimestre su trimestre.

– Francia. Pil. -19.0% anno su anno.

– Francia. Export -25%.

– Francia. Import -17.3%

*

«The methods used to estimate the first release of quarterly accounts have been modified to take into account the lockdown of the French population between mid-March and the beginning of May in the context of the fight against the Covid-19 pandemic»

«In Q2 2020, GDP in volume terms declined: –13.8%, after –5.9% in Q1 2020»

« It is 19% lower than in Q2 2019»

«GDP’s negative developments in first half of 2020 is linked to the shut-down of “non-essential” activities in the context of the implementation of the lockdown between mid-March and the beginning of May»

«Household consumption expenditures dropped (–11.0% after –5.8%)»

«total gross fixed capital formation in a more pronounced manner (GFCF: –17.8% after –10.3%)»

«final domestic demand excluding inventory changes fell sharply: it contributed to –12.0 points to GDP growth»

«Exports fell this quarter (–25.5% after –6.1%)»

«imports (–17.3% after –5.5%)»

* * * * * * *


France’s economy contracted by record 13.8 percent during lockown.

France’s economy contracted by a record 13.8 percent in the second quarter under the impact of coronavirus lockdowns, the national statistics institute INSEE said on Friday.

The seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter drop in gross domestic product (GDP) was better than forecasts but worse than the performance of its eurozone peers.

“GDP’s negative developments in first half of 2020 is linked to the shut-down of ‘non-essential’ activities in the context of the implementation of the lockdown between mid-March and the beginning of May,” INSEE said in a statement.

INSEE also updated the figure for the first quarter – when lockdowns had just begun to be implemented – to a 5.9 percent contraction, from the 5.3 percent it had previously estimated.

The second quarter figure means the French economy has been shrinking for three consecutive quarters and continues to be in recession.

France’s second quarter contraction was much sharper than the record 10.1 percent fall in Germany. Austria suffered a 10.7 percent contraction and Belgium 12.2 percent.

However the drop was better than INSEE’s own forecast from mid-June of a 17 percent drop. The French central bank had estimated a 14 percent fall at the beginning of July.

The analyst consensus established by Factset was for a 15.3 percent drop in GDP.

* * * * * * *

La Francia è in piena recessione economica.

*


Il National Institute for Statistic ha rilasciato il dato sul pil francese.

In Q2 2020, GDP shrank by 13.8%Quarterly national accounts – first estimate – second quarter 2020

In Q2 2020, GDP in volume terms declined: –13.8%, after –5.9% in Q1 2020. It is 19% lower than in Q2 2019. GDP’s negative developments in first half of 2020 is linked to the shut-down of “non-essential” activities in the context of the implementation of the lockdown between mid-March and the beginning of May. The gradual ending of restrictions led to a gradual recovery of economic activity in May and June, after the low point reached in April.

Household consumption expenditures dropped (–11.0% after –5.8%), as did total gross fixed capital formation in a more pronounced manner (GFCF: –17.8% after –10.3%). General government expenditure also stepped back (–8.0% after –3.5%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes fell sharply: it contributed to –12.0 points to GDP growth.

Exports fell this quarter (–25.5% after –6.1%) more strongly than imports (–17.3% after –5.5%). All in all, the foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP growth: –2.3 points, after –0.1 points the previous quarter. Conversely, changes in inventories contributed positively to GDP growth (+0.6 points).

Warning

The methods used to estimate the first release of quarterly accounts have been modified to take into account the lockdown of the French population between mid-March and the beginning of May in the context of the fight against the Covid-19 pandemic. These changes are detailed in the methodological note attached to this release (https://insee.fr/fr/statistiques/documentation/comptes_m_PET220.pdf ). However, this first estimate remains fragile and is likely to be revised, more than usual, in the next releases of quarterly accounts. Furthermore, given the strong developments expected for the following quarters, the overhangs for the year 2020, which imply a null evolution for the rest of the year, cannot be interpreted. As such, they are not published in this estimate.

Pubblicato in: Geopolitica Mondiale

Putin. Obiettivo è cambiare l’ordine mondiale. La P5.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-07-21.

Putin Vladimir 012

Putin è uno dei pochi statisti oggi al mondo.


«Putin had a dream: to reset the world order»

«Moscow has a way of signalling to the White House on critical issues from time to time through public statements calibrated to catch President Trump’s attention»

«It happens usually on Sundays such as on July 11 when the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov transmitted a complicated signal which pointedly called attention to the growing despondency in Moscow that the Russian-American relationship lies in tatters.»

«In this backdrop, US State Secretary Mike Pompeo’s phone call to Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov on Monday does not come as total surprise, where he discussed an idea that President Vladimir Putin had first articulated in a speech at the Fifth Holocaust Forum meeting in Jerusalem on January 23, 2020 — on the imperative need of choreographing a new world order, and the high responsibility of the permanent members of the UN Council to work towards it by holding a summit meeting by September»

«Again, in the weekend, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, a top Kremlin official at the moment, told Interfax news agency that Trump’s chance of winning the November presidential election in November “doesn’t look bright.”»

«Medvedev also conveyed a complicated message that it may still not be too late to salvage Trump’s political career.»

«Interestingly, this is more or less the Chinese assessment of US politics, too»

«Beijing still thinks it can help Trump to turn the tide of the pandemic with the considerable expertise it has acquired, and bringing to the fore its vaccine research, etc.»

«The Russian readout couched in a positive tone stressed that the two top diplomats had a “detailed discussion of the preparations for the meeting of the leaders of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council proposed by Russia»

«In essence, Trump is revisiting a proposal originally mooted six months ago by Moscow and Paris — with Beijing’s enthusiastic backing — that a summit meeting of the heads of state of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council has become an imperative need, 75 years after the end of World War II, to establish a new peace order that ensures that such a horrific catastrophe will never again visit mankind.»

«Putin’s far-sighted initiative, spelt out for the first time in the powerful speech at Jerusalem, anticipated the cascading tension in the international system stemming from the combination of the Covid-19 pandemic, the colossal decline of the physical economy, the systemic collapse of the financial system, and a growing geopolitical confrontation among major powers, which is today leading to a breaking point that can degenerate into social chaos and widespread war»

«nothing short of a veritable Grand Design can provide a comprehensive solution.»

«For a start, the dramatic crises currently menacing the world call for a new world economic order based on a New Bretton Woods system»

«Equally, the agenda should include a Glass-Steagall bank separation; an industrial development plan on a global scale — a New Deal for the entire world; and a credit system — a New Bretton Wood; and most important, a worldwide health system, i.e., a modern health system that could measure up to at least the standard that China demonstrated in Wuhan in fighting the pandemic»

«Putin was intensely conscious that a P5 summit will in all likelihood be the last chance to establish a basis of trust for a strategic orientation of international relations among the five major nuclear powers»

«Without doubt, looking at our planet from above, cooperation between the two largest nuclear powers as well as between the two largest economies in the world is indispensable if mankind is to overcome this pandemic and other impending pandemics, as well as hunger, poverty and underdevelopment»

«the US-Russia-China triangle has good prospects to “come through in a constructive manner” and “form the basis to trace the entire history of international relations,»

«Fortunately, ‘Russiagate’ met with an ignominious end and the Wuhan-virus conspiracy theory has been rejected as unfounded even by American medical experts»

* * * * * * *

In estrema sintesi:

– Un summit tra US, Russia, Cina, Regno Unito e Francia, P5 summit, teso a formulare un nuovo ordine mondiale

– Una nuova Bretton Wood

– Un ripristino a livello mondiale della normativa Glass-Steagall.

*


Putin Had A Dream To Reset The World Order.

Moscow has a way of signalling to the White House on critical issues from time to time through public statements calibrated to catch President Trump’s attention. It happens usually on Sundays such as on July 11 when the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov transmitted a complicated signal which pointedly called attention to the growing despondency in Moscow that the Russian-American relationship lies in tatters.

In this backdrop, US State Secretary Mike Pompeo’s phone call to Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov on Monday does not come as total surprise, where he discussed an idea that President Vladimir Putin had first articulated in a speech at the Fifth Holocaust Forum meeting in Jerusalem on January 23, 2020 — on the imperative need of choreographing a new world order, and the high responsibility of the permanent members of the UN Council to work towards it by holding a summit meeting by September. 

Peskov articulated President Putin’s deep anguish over Moscow’s number one concern today in global politics which has profound implications for global balance and stability — namely, renewal of the New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) with the US, which is due to ‘expire’ in February.

Again, in the weekend, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, a top Kremlin official at the moment, told Interfax news agency that Trump’s chance of winning the November presidential election in November “doesn’t look bright.” While doing so, Medvedev also conveyed a complicated message that it may still not be too late to salvage Trump’s political career.

He said, “The American people will decide. Trump has lots of problems, which affects his rating. He is pretty much lagging behind his main rival. Still, he is a creative person and it is quite possible that a miracle, which happened four years ago, might repeat itself. But for now, his chances do not look bright, considering the grave economic situations caused by coronavirus and racial unrest.”

Interestingly, this is more or less the Chinese assessment of US politics, too. Moscow apparently believes in “miracles” and hopes that Trump, “a creative person”, could still repeat the incredible feat in 2016 when he swept past Hillary Clinton. Whereas, Beijing too hasn’t written off Trump. The policy speech by State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi at the China-US colloquium last week before an audience that included Henry Kissinger contained flashes of an overture to Washington.

The Chinese commentaries have zeroed in on Trump’s mishandling of the Covid-19 pandemic as the genesis of his woes. The argument goes like this: Trump miscalculated that strong measures to check the pandemic might hurt the momentum of the US economy and, therefore, he deliberately played down the virus threat — but only to end up seeing to his dismay the virus spread spiralling out of control and ravaging the economy.

Beijing still thinks it can help Trump to turn the tide of the pandemic with the considerable expertise it has acquired, and bringing to the fore its vaccine research, etc. Trump himself would have realised by now that his Wuhan virus tirade is no longer useful as a campaign plank.

Suffice to say, Pompeo has picked up the phone and dallied Lavrov on Monday  at a sensitive moment — no doubt, on Trump’s instructions. The Russian readout couched in a positive tone stressed that the two top diplomats had a “detailed discussion of the preparations for the meeting of the leaders of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council proposed by Russia. They exchanged opinions on providing strategic stability in the context of the forthcoming meetings of the Russian-US working groups on military and political subjects.”

In essence, Trump is revisiting a proposal originally mooted six months ago by Moscow and Paris — with Beijing’s enthusiastic backing — that a summit meeting of the heads of state of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council has become an imperative need, 75 years after the end of World War II, to establish a new peace order that ensures that such a horrific catastrophe will never again visit mankind.

Putin’s far-sighted initiative, spelt out for the first time in the powerful speech at Jerusalem, anticipated the cascading tension in the international system stemming from the combination of the Covid-19 pandemic, the colossal decline of the physical economy, the systemic collapse of the financial system, and a growing geopolitical confrontation among major powers, which is today leading to a breaking point that can degenerate into social chaos and widespread war.

Putin’s initiative reflects conviction that even a multitude of small steps and measures to deal with all the different crises will no more suffice; nothing short of a veritable Grand Design can provide a comprehensive solution. There are several aspects to a Grand Design. For a start, the dramatic crises currently menacing the world call for a new world economic order based on a New Bretton Woods system. An investment program in the tradition of President Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal could provide a very useful common thread among the P5 heads of state, all of whom have at one time or another referenced FDR in positive terms.

Equally, the agenda should include a Glass-Steagall bank separation; an industrial development plan on a global scale — a New Deal for the entire world; and a credit system — a New Bretton Wood; and most important, a worldwide health system, i.e., a modern health system that could measure up to at least the standard that China demonstrated in Wuhan in fighting the pandemic.

Putin was intensely conscious that a P5 summit will in all likelihood be the last chance to establish a basis of trust for a strategic orientation of international relations among the five major nuclear powers. It is well-known that in a priori history, Trump’s own political instincts were towards having good relations with Russia and China. Without doubt, looking at our planet from above, cooperation between the two largest nuclear powers as well as between the two largest economies in the world is indispensable if mankind is to overcome this pandemic and other impending pandemics, as well as hunger, poverty and underdevelopment.

In Putin’s world view, too, no matter the prevailing gloomy world scenario, the US-Russia-China triangle has good prospects to “come through in a constructive manner” and “form the basis to trace the entire history of international relations,” as highlighted in a highly nuanced Tass interview by the Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova last week in a smart signal to both Washington and Beijing.

The big question is, how far the trans-Atlantic neo-liberal establishment, for whom Trump’s defeat in the November elections is the all-consuming priority, will play along. It is useful to recall that the ‘Wuhan virus’ was first conjured up by the former heads of Britain’s MI6 Secret Intelligence Service, Sir John Sawers and Sir Richard Dearlove, and the London-based Henry Jackson Society which, in a blatant provocation, challenged China to pay $9 trillion in reparations!

This deadly power centre in London also masterminded the ‘Russiagate’ to create a quagmire for the Trump presidency. Fortunately, ‘Russiagate’ met with an ignominious end and the Wuhan-virus conspiracy theory has been rejected as unfounded even by American medical experts. (A WHO delegation is currently in Wuhan to investigate the origins of the virus and the chronology of the pandemic.)

Nonetheless, it is vital that the statesmen from the world’s five major nuclear powers try and lose rather than not to try at all to explore how a completely different program can be scripted for the agenda of international politics in order to prevent the cumulative effects of the pandemic, hunger, economic collapse — and a financial crash — becoming the destiny of mankind.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Regno Unito

Immatricolazioni Auto. IT -23.1%, GB -34.9%, DE -32.3%, FR +1.2%, Cina +11.6% YoY.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-07-16.

2020-07-16__autmobili 013

Tranne che in Francia, in Europa le immatricolazioni delle automobili sono tutte profondamente negative nella comparazione con l’anno precedente, giugno 2019.

Meno automobili in circolazione e fabbriche automobilistiche che producono al lumicino: finalmente i paesi europei si avviano a diventare ecologicamente lindi. D’altra parte, i miseri non necessitano di automezzi, né possono permetterseli. Così le burocrazie statali possono meglio controllarli.

Da compiangere invece gli sciagurati cinesi.

Cina: forte ripresa per auto a giugno, +11.6% rispetto 2019.

Nonostante alcune situazioni di crisi nel Paese legate a focolai di Covid-19, il mercato dell’auto e dei veicoli commerciali in Cina sta riprendendo quota con grande rapidità. Secondo i dati rilasciati dalla China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) in giugno le immatricolazioni complessive sono salite dell’11,6% rispetto allo stesso mese del 2019, raggiungendo nel terzo mese consecutivo di crescita quota 2,3 milioni di unità. A spingere questa ripresa sono i sostegni varati dai Governi locali e soprattutto la forte domanda per i pick-up e i furgoni.

* * * * * * *

Stessa epidemia da Covid-19, stessi lockdown, differenti governi.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Fisco e Tasse, Senza categoria, Stati Uniti

Francia tassa i servizi digitali e Trump le innalza i dazi del 25%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-07-12.

Banca di Francia 001

«The U.S. move follows a U.S. Section 301 probe, which concluded the French tax discriminates against U.S. tech firms such as Google, Facebook and Apple Inc»

«France and other countries view digital service taxes as a way to raise revenue from the local operations of big tech companies which they say profit enormously from local markets while making only limited contributions to public coffers»

«The United States has initiated similar Section 301 investigations of digital services taxes adopted or being considered by 10 other countries, including Britain, India and Turkey, which could result in tariffs against their goods»

«The Trump administration on Friday announced additional duties of 25% on French cosmetics, handbags and other imports valued at $1.3 billion in response to France’s digital services tax, but would hold off on implementing the move for up to 180 days»

«The U.S. Trade Representative’s office said delaying the start of the tariffs would allow further time to resolve the issue, including through discussions in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)»

* * * * * * *

Ad ogni azione corrisponde una reazione eguale e contraria.

I governi del blocco europeo sono alla spasmodica ricerca di qualcuno da tassare al fine di incrementare le scarne entrate, anche tenendo conto che il lockdown, riducendo la produzione, esita alla fine anche nella riduzione del gettito fiscale. Da tempo si parlava di tassare le società internazionali quali Google e Facebook.

Di questi tempi la Francia di Mr Macron ha preso l’iniziativa, ma la risposta americana è stata immediata e proporzionale.

Il blocco europeo dovrebbe alla fine capire come l’unico modo politicamente ragionevole di affrontare i problemi sia una discussione serena, senza preconcetti ideologici di sorta.

*


U.S. slaps French goods with 25% duties in digital tax row, but delays effective date

The Trump administration on Friday announced additional duties of 25% on French cosmetics, handbags and other imports valued at $1.3 billion in response to France’s digital services tax, but would hold off on implementing the move for up to 180 days.

The U.S. Trade Representative’s office said delaying the start of the tariffs would allow further time to resolve the issue, including through discussions in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The decision also reflected France’s agreement to defer collection of its 3% tax on digital services.

The U.S. move follows a U.S. Section 301 probe, which concluded the French tax discriminates against U.S. tech firms such as Google (GOOG.O), Facebook (FB.O) and Apple Inc (AAPL.O).

France and other countries view digital service taxes as a way to raise revenue from the local operations of big tech companies which they say profit enormously from local markets while making only limited contributions to public coffers.

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer first disclosed on Thursday plans to impose new tariffs on French goods with deferred implementation. The $1.3 billion worth of goods is part of a list first published by USTR in December.

The United States has initiated similar Section 301 investigations of digital services taxes adopted or being considered by 10 other countries, including Britain, India and Turkey, which could result in tariffs against their goods.

OECD talks aimed at developing a multilateral solution for taxing digital services have failed to produce any results, with negotiations complicated by the coronavirus pandemic.

Last month, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin caught European countries by surprise when he suggested a pause in the OECD talks given the lack of progress there.

A spokesman for the European Union told Reuters earlier that Brussels could propose its own solution if the OECD talks failed to produce an agreement. He urged Washington to resume the talks.