Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Macron. Corte Conti bacchetta il Governo per il debito pubblico.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-06-26.

Fattoria Animali 001

La Francia ha raggiunto un debito pubblico di 2,414.622 miliardi di euro, essendo 102.23% il rapporto debito / pil, con un debito procapite di 36,511 euro. Di interessi deve pagare 55.015 miliardi di euro all’anno.

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Cour des Comptes. 2019 Annual public report

Lo Stability Programme. April 2018 ne è rimasto sconvolto.

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«France’s public auditor has criticized president Emmanual Macron’s decision to loosen the country’s purse strings to try to end months of yellow vest protests »

«The Cour des Comptes warned on Tuesday that the country’s debt level, which is hovering at close to 100 percent, was “worrying” and urged the government to control spending»

«The auditor said the money directed towards the grievances of the yellow vests had not been founded on savings elsewhere»

«In a report, the public auditor said the growing divergence between France and its neighbours on debt reduction was “worrying” and “could lead to a deterioration of the perceived quality of France’s debt among investors”.»

«It criticized the government over its failure curb overspending noting it had the opportunity to take advantage of a spell of growth»

«But this year it is set to rise again above the 3.0-percent mark, increasing to 3.1 percent on the back of a package of tax cuts and income top-ups announced to try to defuse the anger of the anti-government yellow vests»

«The International Monetary Fund also warned last month that France’s debt was “too high for comfort” and called on the government to cut spending»

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La Cour des Comptes ha pubblicato una severa reprimenda del Presidente Macron, che ha portato il rapporto debito / pil al 102.23%, con un aumento del debito pubblico a 2,414.622 miliardi di euro.

L’Unione Europea, la Commissione Europea e Mr Moscovici non hanno fiatato, chiusi nella omertà che li lega.
Nella Fattoria degli Animali erano tutti eguali, ma i porci erano più eguali degli altri.

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French public auditors warn over rising debt

France’s public auditor has criticized president Emmanual Macron’s decision to loosen the country’s purse strings to try to end months of yellow vest protests.

The Cour des Comptes warned on Tuesday that the country’s debt level, which is hovering at close to 100 percent, was “worrying” and urged the government to control spending.

The auditor said the money directed towards the grievances of the yellow vests had not been founded on savings elsewhere.

In a report, the public auditor said the growing divergence between France and its neighbours on debt reduction was “worrying” and “could lead to a deterioration of the perceived quality of France’s debt among investors”.

It criticized the government over its failure curb overspending noting it had the opportunity to take advantage of a spell of growth.

No French government has balanced the books since the 1970s.

On coming to power in 2017, Macron set about trying to cut the deficit to bring it in line with an EU limit of three percent of GDP, which the eurozone’s second-biggest economy has flouted for the last ten years.

Last year, the deficit fell to a 12-year low of 2.5 percent of GDP, a decline which was greater-than-expected and achieved despite falling growth and purchasing power.

Pledge to balance books revised

But this year it is set to rise again above the 3.0-percent mark, increasing to 3.1 percent on the back of a package of tax cuts and income top-ups announced to try to defuse the anger of the anti-government yellow vests.

The measures are expected to drive up the public debt to 98.9 percent this year.

The government expects to be back on track with deficit reduction next year. It is aiming for a deficit of 1.2 percent by the end of Macron’s first presidential term in 2022 – having apparently given up on its original 2017 campaign pledge to balance the books within five years.

The Cour des Comptes warned against any further let-up in the drive to clean up the country’s finances.

The International Monetary Fund also warned last month that France’s debt was “too high for comfort” and called on the government to cut spending.

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France 24. 2019-06-25. Rising French debt is ‘worrying’, public auditors warn

France’s public auditor on Tuesday warned that the country’s debt level, which is hovering at close to 100 percent, was “worrying” and urged the government to control spending.

France’s debt-to-GDP ratio is set to reach 98.9 percent this year, bucking the downward trend seen in most other eurozone countries after President Emmanuel Macron loosened the country’s purse strings to try end months of often violent “yellow vest” protests.

In a report, France’s Cour des Comptes said the growing divergence between France and its neighbours on debt reduction was “worrying” and “could lead to a deterioration of the perceived quality of France’s debt among investors”.

It chided the government over its failure to take advantage of a spell of growth to significantly rein in overspending, which leads to increased borrowing every year.

“France is far from having eliminated its structural deficit whereas many of its European neighbours have achieved a balance,” it warned in a 150-page report.

No French government has balanced the books since the 1970s.

On coming to power in 2017, Macron immediately set about trimming the deficit to bring it in line with an EU limit of three percent of GDP, which the eurozone’s second-biggest economy had persistently flouted for a decade.

Last year, the deficit fell to a 12-year low of 2.5 percent of GDP, a greater-than-expected decline achieved despite falling growth and purchasing power.

But this year it is set to again rise above the 3.0-percent mark, increasing to 3.1 percent on the back of a package of tax cuts and income top-ups announced to try to defuse the anger of the anti-government yellow vests.

The measures are expected to drive up the public debt to 98.9 percent this year.

The government expects to be back on track with deficit reduction next year. By the end of Macron’s first presidential term in 2022, it is aiming for a deficit of 1.2 percent — a far cry from his 2017 campaign pledge to balance the books within five years.

The Cour des Comptes warned against any further let-up in the drive to clean up the country’s finances.

The International Monetary Fund also warned last month that France’s debt was “too high for comfort” and called on the government to cut spending.

Annunci
Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Cina, Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Stati Uniti

Banche Mondiali. Senza potenza finanziaria non si fa politica estera.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-06-03.

2019-05-19__Banche__001

Se è vero che senza potenza delle forze armate sarebbe impossibile fare un minimo di politica estera, sarebbe altrettanto vero ricordarsi che senza un adeguato sistema finanziario ogni idea in tale direzione sarebbe velleitaria.

Così, come si contano gli armamenti atomici e quelli convenzionali, sarebbe opportuno ogni tanto dare una scorsa ai sistemi finanziari delle nazioni che hanno ambizioni mondiali.

Standard & Poor compila ogni anno una lista mondiale degli istituti di credito, riportandoli per total assets decrescenti: nella tabella ne riportiamo i primi venti.

Ricordiamo qui la definizione di total assets:

«The final amount of all gross investments, cash and equivalents, receivables, and other assets as they are presented on the balance sheet.»

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La somma dei total assets delle prime venti banche mondiali assomma a 45,645.77 miliardi di dollari americani.

Le prime quattro banche mondiali sono cinesi: la Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank Corporation, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China. Messe assieme capitalizzano 13,637.06 miliardi, ossia il 29.9% dell’assets totale.

Gli Stati Uniti hanno la JP Morgan Chase & Co., Bank of America, Citigroup Inc., Wells Fargo & Co., che sommate assieme mostrano assets per 8,750 miliardi, ossia il 19.17% del totale.

La Francia mostra quattro banche: Groupe BPCE, Société Générale, Crédit Agricole e BNP Paribas, per un assets total di 7,517.63 miliardi. il 16.47% del totale.

Le banche del Giappone e del Regno Unito stanno uscendo dalla graduatoria.

La Germania è presente solo con Deutsche Bank, che risponde al 3.87% dl totale.

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Questa tabella evidenzia con crude cifre come solo Cina e Stati Uniti abbiano il supporto finanziario per la loro politica estera mondiale. Evidenzia anche come la Cina si stia avviando alla supremazia mondiale in questo settore di vitale importanza per il suo sistema economico nazionale. E tutto questo lo ha fatto in poco meno di trenta anni, partendo da basi disastrate: il problema è sia politico sia si organizzazione del lavoro in questo settore. Forse, l’Occidente farebbe bene a cercare di studiare meglio la situazione ed a cercare anche di imparare qualcosa.

Il caso francese è a parte.

Se dal punto di vista finanziario è ancora in graduatoria, ed anche ben piazzata, è almeno al momento orfana di un reggimento politico degno di tal nome: la politica estera richiede infatti una consistente continuità di intenti, venuti a meno negli ultimi lustri.

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Il problema tedesco è molto ben descritto in un articolo comparso di recente: non dovrebbero servire commenti, basterenne solo leggerlo.

Le forze straniere avanzano in una Germania in rovina. È lo stato del sistema bancario tedesco oggi

Un dossier gira sui tavoli delle cancellerie e delle redazioni dei quotidiani finanziari di tutto l’Occidente – e non solo – ed è classificato, perché solo a parlarne vengono i brividi: esiste un Paese europeo che da decenni non include nei propri bilanci le liability verso enti terzi di fatto e di diritto sottoposti alla propria garanzia. Ed ha nascosto sotto il tappeto – nel formale rispetto delle regole – la bellezza di 4.700 miliardi di euro, oltre il 120% del PIL, mentre l’indebitamento della prima e della terza banca del Paese supera abbondantemente i 1.800 miliardi di Euro e l’esposizione del primo istituto di credito sui derivati equivale all’astronomica cifra di 48.000 miliardi, quattordici volte il PIL del Paese. Ora, quel Paese è la Bundesrepublik Deutschland, la Germania.

Da mesi i media di tutto il mondo riportano notizie sui tentativi di salvare Deutsche Bank e Commerzbank, le due banche di cui sopra, dal rischio di una crisi senza via d’uscita. La fusione è stata accantonata, ricordando le parole dell’ex presidente di Volkswagen Ferdinand Piëch: “Due malati in un letto non fanno una persona sana”. Unicredit, ING e alcuni istituti di credito francesi hanno cominciato ad esplorare un’acquisizione. Da notare che gli azionisti delle due banche sono quasi gli stessi: importanti fondi di investimento anglosassoni; con la significativa differenza che Commerzbank è per il 15,6% di proprietà del Governo tedesco, il quale ovviamente ha le mani legate perché non può avvallare operazioni che comportino perdite significative di posti di lavoro. È il modello tedesco di partecipazione dello Stato federale, dei Land (le regioni) e delle associazioni di lavoratori nei consigli di amministrazione e nell’azionariato delle grandi aziende che in questo, come in altri casi, mostra i propri limiti: non è realistico chiedere alle dita di una mano quali preferirebbero essere amputate dall’arto…

Il tempo corre: Fitch, che a settembre 2017 ha declassato le obbligazioni di Deutsche Bank da A- a BBB+, a giugno 2018 e di nuovo a febbraio 2019 ha confermato l’outlook negativo, ad appena due passi dalla classificazione come “titoli spazzatura”. Non che Commerzbank stia molto meglio…

A Berlino il merger (la fusione) piace ancora, anche per difendere le banche e le aziende tedesche dalle mire della Cina. L’eventuale arrivo di un “cavaliere bianco” italiano, francese o olandese verrebbe vissuto come un male minore, allo scopo di evitare traumatiche incursioni del Celeste impero, come nel caso di Geely salita senza colpo ferire al 10% di Daimler1 o della società elettrica di stato cinese arrivata a controllare il 20% di uno dei quattro gestori della rete elettrica tedeschi. Il dubbio non è se Berlino vorrà difendere la Germania e, indirettamente, l’Europa: da mesi il governo di Angela Merkel lavora a un disegno di legge volto ad assicurare all’esecutivo il potere di bloccare gli investimenti extra-UE – anche solo del 10% – in aziende di settori strategici, come infrastrutture, difesa e sicurezza. No, il dubbio è quanto e persino se potrà farlo.

Ora, ricordate come è cominciata nel settembre 2007 la così detta Grande Depressione, di cui il mondo in generale e l’Europa in particolare portano ancora le stigmate? Il 13 settembre 2008 Lehman Brothers aveva in corso trattative con Bank of America e Barclays per la possibile vendita della società. Di lì a ventiquattr’ore, però, Barclays ritirò la sua offerta, mentre l’interessamento di Bank of America cozzò contro la richiesta di un coinvolgimento del governo federale nell’operazione. Il giorno successivo l’indice Dow Jones segnò il più grande tracollo da quello che era seguito agli attacchi dell’11 settembre 2001: il fallimento di Lehman è stato il più grande nella storia, superando il crac di WorldCom nel 2002. Lehman aveva debiti bancari pari a circa 613 miliardi di dollari e debiti obbligazionari per 155 miliardi di dollari, un importo complessivo equivalente al 5% del PIL americano nel 2008.

Certamente, Berlino non ripeterebbe l’errore, memore anche dei quaranta miliardi di sterline offerte nel 2008 dal governo britannico alle banche in difficoltà. Qui, però, non parliamo di 40 e nemmeno di 600 miliardi, ma di oltre 1.800. Il governo tedesco avrebbe la forza finanziaria e politica per farlo e anche di imporre ai partner europei di fare una mano, stante anche la situazione dell’indebitamento reale della Nazione e la diffusione dei sovranismi? A fronte di offerte provenienti da Pechino dell’ordine delle centinaia di miliardi, il contribuente tedesco preferirebbe pagare il conto di banchieri e imprenditori di tasca propria, pur di garantire l’indipendenza del Sistema Paese tedesco? Il contribuente italiano si renderebbe conto che abbandonare la Germania al proprio destino equivale a segare il ramo su cui è seduto?

Chi scrive, in realtà, avrebbe timore di fare questa domanda agli Italiani se si trattasse anche solo di salvare una delle banche “sistemiche” del nostro Paese, figuriamoci quelle tedesche…

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Francia. Amministrative 2020. Strada in salita per Mr Macron.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-05-21.

2019-05-22__Francia__Amministrative__001

Se sicuramente il controllo del governo nazionale sia obiettivo primario di ogni partito politico, una valida rappresentatività sul territorio è di importanza non secondaria, se non altro perché permette l’addestramento dei quadri di partito all’azione politica.

La République En Marche!, il partito politico del presidente Macron, ha sicuramente vinto la presidenza ed una larga quota dell’Assemblea nazionale, ma stenta fortemente a prender campo nel controllo delle amministrazioni periferiche.

Queste, però, rivestono in Francia una peculiare importanza, perchè sono gli eletti nei loro quadri a essere i grandi elettori del Senato. Poi, la diffusione sul territorio aumenta ed alimenta il potere gestibile al centro.

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La strada di La République En Marche! sembrerebbe essere tutta in salita, in vista delle elezioni amministrative dell’anno entrante.

Al momento Rem ha sindaci solo a Besançon ed a Lyon.

Secondo gli ultimi sondaggi, Rem avrebbe buone possibilità a

– Lyon, con Gérard Collomb,

– Toulouse, con Jean-François Portarrieu.

A Parigi Anne Hidalgo (sinistra) guida con il 22% delle propensioni al voto, contro Benjamin-Blaise Griveaux (Rem) con il 21%: è quindi un testa a testa.

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Sicuramente di qui ad un anno molte cose accadranno, ma le prospezioni attuali sembrerebbero essere poco lusinghiere per Mr Macron.

Ma si faccia molta attenzione: chi sia debole politicamente in casa propria conta ben poco nell’Unione Europea.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Macron vs Merkel. Il fu asse francogermanico.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-05-12.

Malato 001

«The sick man of Europe is now Germany»


Da quando è stata costituita, la Unione Europea è stata governata dal duopolio francogermanico. Alle riunioni vis-a-vis, riservate, si succedevano quelle pubbliche per convincere i vassalli, ed il gioco era fatto.

La divisione era semplice: uno a me, uno a te, e questi briciolotti li lasciamo beccare agli altri.

Per decenni l’Unione Europea ha mantenuto l’agricoltura francese con una marea di sovvenzioni, e la Francia ha accondisceso alla politica finanziaria tedesca.

Ma nulla è eterno a questo mondo.

«Cooperation between Paris and Berlin has long been a requirement for a unified Europe»

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«Two days after he took office as France’s president, Emmanuel Macron flew to Berlin. …. Mr. Macron had been elected to transform France, and he was convinced that real change in his country would happen only through better European integration»

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«Two years on, the results are nowhere to be seen and the charm has given way to exasperation»

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«He openly admitted for the first time that France disagreed with Germany on Brexit strategy, energy policy, climate change, trade negotiations with the United States — and the list could have been longer»

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«the German growth model has perhaps run its course»

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«In his view, Germany, having made belt-tightening reforms that were right for its own economy, had fully benefited from the imbalances created within the eurozone»

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«Emmanuel Macron no longer wants to be treated as the chancellor’s junior partner, who would keep quiet if not asked for his opinion»

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«The new tone toward Germany comes not only from Mr. Macron, nor from Paris»

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«political paralysis in Berlin»

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«Several governments in the eurozone want Germany, the biggest economy in the bloc, to relax its fiscal rules and invest in infrastructure and innovation in order to provide stimulus»

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«The sick man of Europe is now Germany»

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«Ms. Merkel’s response to Mr. Macron’s early proposals on union reforms had been “not a response but a flat rejection»

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«The chancellor treated him like a little boy»

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«French officials think the eurozone is at risk of collapsing if it does not correct its inequalities, while the Germans are happy with the status quo»

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«The German model needs to reinvent itself»

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«But beyond concern that German conservatism hurts the eurozone, there is a genuine sense of alarm»

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Per concludere degnamente, Mr Macron ha detto a chiare lettere che non supporterà la candidatura di Manfred Weber, pupillo di Frau Merkel.


The New York Times. 201905-08. Macron Puts Germany on Trial

Cooperation between Paris and Berlin has long been a requirement for a unified Europe. But now they are at odds on fundamental policies.

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PARIS — Two days after he took office as France’s president, Emmanuel Macron flew to Berlin. It was May 16, 2017, and France and Germany needed a reset. Joined at the hip, the two nations cannot make Europe work if they don’t work together. Mr. Macron had been elected to transform France, and he was convinced that real change in his country would happen only through better European integration.

Hope was in the air as the young, ambitious but untested French president met Angela Merkel, the stern three-term German chancellor. Ms. Merkel quoted the German poet Hermann Hesse: “A magic dwells in each beginning.” Ever the realist, however, she cautiously added, “Charm lasts only if there are results.”

Two years on, the results are nowhere to be seen and the charm has given way to exasperation. When Ms. Merkel and Mr. Macron met on the sidelines of a Berlin summit on the western Balkans, on April 29, their talk was kept to a strict minimum — 15 minutes. Asked at a news conference about the French-German relationship four days earlier, Mr. Macron answered in unusually blunt terms. He openly admitted for the first time that France disagreed with Germany on Brexit strategy, energy policy, climate change, trade negotiations with the United States — and the list could have been longer. Though he chose to stop there, he vowed to voice his differences firmly for the sake, he said, of “fruitful confrontations.”

Mr. Macron went on to suggest that “the German growth model has perhaps run its course.” In his view, Germany, having made belt-tightening reforms that were right for its own economy, had fully benefited from the imbalances created within the eurozone; especially hard hit were the Southern economies like Spain, Greece and Italy, for which austerity was bitter and destabilizing. These imbalances have worsened, Mr. Macron pointed out, and they now “run counter to the social project” he supports.

“This is a whole new tone from Paris,” noted Michaela Wiegel, the longtime Paris correspondent of Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. “Emmanuel Macron no longer wants to be treated as the chancellor’s junior partner, who would keep quiet if not asked for his opinion.”

There is some irony that this newfound assertiveness from the French president toward Germany comes at a time when six months of social unrest from the so-called Yellow Vests — who have taken to the streets, sometimes violently, over France’s growing gap between rich and poor — have seriously weakened Mr. Macron’s leadership. But it is precisely because his house is on fire that he is losing patience with his biggest, wealthiest neighbor.

The new tone toward Germany comes not only from Mr. Macron, nor from Paris. Grievances differ, but they all point to one problem: political paralysis in Berlin. Several governments in the eurozone want Germany, the biggest economy in the bloc, to relax its fiscal rules and invest in infrastructure and innovation in order to provide stimulus. “When it gets cold, one should turn on the heat,” one prominent European Union politician pleaded privately. But Germany, sitting on a huge trade and fiscal surplus on top of its ever-increasing savings, is reluctant to act.

When Europe is assailed from all quarters in a world in turmoil, when most governments in the union are fighting a populist wave, Germany’s ruling coalition is behaving as if it were still navigating the calm seas of the early 2000s. “Germany has not moved for the past 10 years,” a German senior executive working for a foreign company told me angrily. “The sick man of Europe is now Germany.”

Many French experts blame Mr. Macron for placing all his bets on close cooperation with Ms. Merkel at the outset instead of reaching out to a wider range of allies within the European Union. Back in 2017, in order to win her over to his far-reaching plan for Europe, he intended to institute the domestic reforms, starting with new labor laws, that his predecessor, François Hollande, had been too weak to pass.

But German skepticism over France’s ability to deliver “was impossible to overcome,” Shahin Vallée, an economist and a former adviser to Mr. Macron, wrote in The Guardian. Similarly, the head of the German trade union D.G.B., Reiner Hoffmann, told the newspaper Der Spiegel last week that Ms. Merkel’s response to Mr. Macron’s early proposals on union reforms had been “not a response but a flat rejection.” He added, “The chancellor treated him like a little boy.”

For Jean-Marie Guéhenno, a French foreign policy expert, “It was naïve of France to think that it would be enough to imitate Germany precisely when the German model was reaching the end of its cycle.” Philippe Martin, an economic adviser to the French government, asserts that the two countries “don’t speak the same economic language,” noting, “It is difficult to negotiate when you don’t have the same model in mind.”

This is where the problem lies: French officials think the eurozone is at risk of collapsing if it does not correct its inequalities, while the Germans are happy with the status quo — because they have gained so much from it. In Paris, disappointment over Germany’s failure to follow through on European reforms under Ms. Merkel is turning into resentment.

Yet the party may be over even for Germany. Challenged by competition from China and slowed by global trade tensions, the export-powered German economy is sputtering. The German model needs to reinvent itself. Within Germany, a few audacious experts are starting to question its economic orthodoxy and to challenge one of its most sacred cows: the “schwarze Null,” or “black zero,” a 10-year-old fiscal rule that bars the government from running budget deficits. So far, though, politicians are turning a deaf ear.

Of course, there may be a measure of jealousy among Europeans, including the French, who were not brave enough to reform their economies when the weather was fairer. But beyond concern that German conservatism hurts the eurozone, there is a genuine sense of alarm, shared by many foreign policy experts in Berlin, about how Germany sees its role in a changing world — and how it sees the role of Europe, in which it is now so deeply anchored. When it comes to protecting its car industry, its gas pipeline with Russia or its political decisions on which countries to sell arms exports, Germany’s unilateral behavior is increasingly at odds with Ms. Merkel’s much-acclaimed commitment to multilateralism.

In his list of items of discord, Mr. Macron mentioned neither Germany’s retreat on military spending, despite multiplying threats from Russia, China and terrorists and heavy pressure from President Trump, nor did he discuss its reluctance to take a stand on major strategic and security issues, perhaps because these subjects are so sensitive. Or perhaps because Mr. Macron has not lost hope in his efforts to make Germany more European, rather than making Europe more German.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Macron ha pubblicato il programma elettorale di Renaissance.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-05-09.

Macron 0801

Mr Macron ha pubblicato il programma elettorale per le prossime elezioni europee.

Ne riportiamo solo la prima parte, data la lunghezza del documento.

«Jamais depuis la Seconde Guerre mondiale, l’Europe n’a été aussi nécessaire.

Et pourtant, jamais elle n’a été autant en danger. Certains

veulent

la détruire. Ils prônent le repli nationaliste qui ne règle rien. D’autres se contentent du statu quo au mépris des espoirs des peuples. Le 26 mai, les Européens peuvent faire un autre choix : celui de la Renaissance de l’Europe. C’est ce choix que nous vous proposons.

Nous sommes fiers d’être Européens.

Nous savons ce que nous devons à l’Europe. Elle a garanti la paix après les conflits, la démocratie après les dictatures, la prospérité de plusieurs générations.

Mais l’Europe d’hier peine dans le 21e siècle. Elle est entravée par la frilosité des gestionnaires. Elle est dépassée par les défis écologiques, économiques ou migratoires. Elle n’a pas été pensée pour répondre aux attentes des citoyens d’aujourd’hui.

Elle n’est pourtant pas le problème. Elle peut même redevenir notre solution.

Pour cela, elle doit reprendre le contrôle de son destin.

Pour donner à l’écologie la priorité et ne pas laisser aux générations à venir une planète en perdition ; pour faire de l’Europe une puissance respectée qui défend ses intérêts et tire la mondialisation vers le haut ; pour organiser la fin de l’évasion fiscale qui mine notre pacte social ; pour relever le défi migratoire en protégeant nos valeurs et nos frontières ; pour préserver la paix et assurer notre souveraineté ; pour rendre l’Europe aux citoyens et la construire avec les peuples.

Les 79 propositions de notre projet sont nées de nos rencontres avec les Français. Toutes sont ambitieuses, concrètes et réalisables sans qu’il nous faille promettre des financements impossibles ou des sorties de l’Europe absurdes. Nos candidats les porteront avec conviction et engagement. Ils porteront la voix des Français pour que la France pèse en Europe et améliore notre quotidien. Avec cette élection, avec vous, nous pouvons reprendre le contrôle du destin de l’Europe le 26 mai.

FAIRE DE L’EUROPE UNE PUISSANCE VERTE

L’urgence écologique est là. L’année 2018 a été la plus chaude de notre histoire, avec une fonte record de la banquise, des incendies de la Grèce à la Suède et les trois quarts de nos départements frappés par la sécheresse.

La Terre a déjà perdu plus de la moitié de ses animaux sauvages en 40 ans et ce sont maintenant près de 20 000 îles qui pourraient disparaître sous les eaux dans les années à venir.

L’activité humaine souille notre air, nos océans, nos cours d’eau et nos sols. Toutes les 10 minutes, un Français meurt prématurément du fait de la pollution. Nous sommes la dernière génération à pouvoir agir. Nous sommes aussi la première à avoir toutes les solutions en main pour réconcilier écologie et économie, environnement et agriculture. C’est pourquoi la transition vers ce nouveau modèle est notre priorité.

LA PROPOSITION PRINCIPALE

Nous investirons massivement dans la

transition écologique et solidaire.

Au moins 1 000 milliards d’euros sont nécessaires d’ici 2024 pour développer les énergies et les transports propres, rénover les logements et accompagner la reconversion des travailleurs des secteurs en transition.

De la Banque centrale à la Commission, toutes les institutions européennes doivent avoir le climat pour mandat.

  • – Nous créerons une Banque du climat et orienterons l’épargne des Européens vers la croissance verte.

  • – Nous consacrerons 40% des dépenses européennes à la transition écologique.

  • – Nous rendrons le budget européen 100% compatible avec l’Accord de Paris.

  • – Nous compléterons le Pacte de Stabilité avec un Pacte de Soutenabilité pour ne laisser à nos enfants ni dette écologique, ni dette financière.»

* * *

«Renaissance platform calls for empowering the European Parliament and attaching conditions to EU funds»

*

«Under the banner “Projet Renaissance,” it features nine main proposals, including increased investment in environmental policy, imposing a tax on Big Tech across Europe, and moves toward a European army»

*

«Renaissance proposes giving more power to the European Parliament.»

*

«his campaign proposes making access to European funds conditional on “the respect of rule of law,”»

*

«Suggestions like setting up a European climate bank, overhauling the Schengen zone, reinforcing Frontex (the EU’s border and coast guard agency) and uniting around a European identity were first revealed in Macron’s op-ed calling for a “European Renaissance” in April»

*

«I’m not sure that the French have been focused on the election, there was the great debate, the [Yellow Jacket] protests every Saturday»

*

«Millions of printed programs will be sent out to voters Thursday»

* * * * * * *

Questo programma ricalca pari pari quello che Mr Macron presentò a suo tempo, For European renewal, e che fu bocciato immediatamente.

Germania ripudia in toto il progetto europeo di Macron

«No matter how charming the French are — in France, it’s always and above all about French interests»

*

«CDU’s Kramp-Karrenbauer says ‘nein’ to European centralism»

*

Merkel Party Chief Sets Limits on Macron’s Ambitions for Europe

*

Si vorrebbe sottolineare solo alcuni passi.

«Au moins 1 000 milliards d’euros sont nécessaires»

Mr Macron richiede all’Unione Europea soltanto mille miliardi: si sta ridimensionando fin troppo. È solo un obolo della Misericordia.

Sia l’aumento dei potere conferiti all’europarlamento sia il vincolare l’erogazione dei fondi EU alla visione liberal dell’Unione Europea potrebbero essere possibili solo ed esclusivamente riscrivendo i Trattati dell’Unione. Su tali materia né l’europarlamento né la Commissione Europea hanno potere alcuno.


Politico. 2019-05-09. Macron unveils plan for Europe

Renaissance platform calls for empowering the European Parliament and attaching conditions to EU funds.

*

PARIS — Emmanuel Macron’s La République En Marche unveiled its European Parliament election program on Wednesday, becoming the last major French political party to do so.

Under the banner Projet Renaissance,” it features nine main proposals, including increased investment in environmental policy, imposing a tax on Big Tech across Europe, and moves toward a European army.

The program maintains the Macron tradition of borrowing ideas from the left and right, quoting Jacques Delors, the socialist former president of the European Commission, while calling for more border controls and reinforcing the repatriation of migrants.

Like Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, its main rival in the upcoming election, Renaissance proposes giving more power to the European Parliament. Macron’s party wants to empower it to propose new laws, however, unlike the National Rally, it does not want to scrap the European Commission.

Renaissance also suggests making European institutions more democratic and transparent by capping the number of MEP terms per person to three and giving European citizens the right to initiate laws through petitions that garner more than 1 million signatures.

Nevertheless, and in line with the stance Macron has taken against populists and nationalists in Europe, his campaign proposes making access to European funds conditional on “the respect of rule of law,” in what is a likely reference to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

On defense, Renaissance proposes advancing “toward the European army,” a topic that is far from having unanimous support in the EU. It adds that “every country must keep its national army and its capacity to launch military operations … but we must progress toward a common intervention capacity.”

Much of the rest of the proposals in the program have already been laid out in public by either Macron or his lead candidate Nathalie Loiseau. Suggestions like setting up a European climate bank, overhauling the Schengen zone, reinforcing Frontex (the EU’s border and coast guard agency) and uniting around a European identity were first revealed in Macron’s op-ed calling for a “European Renaissance” in April.

Macron made his first foray into the campaign Tuesday evening, when he attended a working dinner with Renaissance candidates and reminded them of the high stakes in the upcoming election. The list, under Loiseau’s leadership, has been either stagnating or slightly falling in recent polls and she has had a hard time generating enthusiasm, with only 18 percent of respondents to an Elabe poll in April saying they have a positive view of her.

But En Marche officials maintain that French people only really start paying attention to the European election in the last three weeks of the campaign.

“I’m not sure that the French have been focused on the election, there was the great debate, the [Yellow Jacket] protests every Saturday,” Loiseau told French radio Sunday, to justify the delay in revealing the election program.

Millions of printed programs will be sent out to voters Thursday, to coincide with Europe Day, according to a Renaissance campaign official.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Francia. Elezioni Europee. Duello Le Pen – Macron.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-05-08.

2019-05-06__Francia__001

«The apparent lack of enthusiasm amongst intended left-wing voters seems to be part of a broader phenomenon of voter apathy with regard to the European elections in France. Overall, a mere 39 percent of the French electorate are “quite certain to vote” on May 26, the Elabe poll indicated»

*

«One survey by pollster Elabe, published on April 30 by French media network BFMTV, showed Macron’s party coming out on top with 22.5 percent of the vote, with Le Pen’s RN a close second at 21.5 percent.»

*

«However, another poll, published on May 2 by OpinionWay, put RN on top with 24 percent of the vote and a three-point lead over LREM»

*

«If Macron’s party were to finish second to Le Pen’s now, it would reverse the dynamic of the 2017 presidential election and deal a severe blow to Macron’s ambition to lead a progressive revival of pro-European liberals against national populists in France and across the EU»

*

«Never have we seen European elections with such high stakes for a French president»

*

«two themes stand out: issues relating to sovereignty such as control of migratory flows and the fight against terrorism, on the one hand, and environmental issues on the other»

*

«France’s right-wing party, Les Républicains (LR), which has moved in a socially conservative direction since electing Laurent Wauquiez as its leader in 2017, is projected to come third in the Elabe poll, with 15.5 percent of voting intentions – up by 1.5 points from its standing in a March 27 poll»

*

«By contrast, supporters of France’s divided and flagging left-wing parties – all polling in single digits – seem much less convinced. Just 63 percent of intended voters for Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s far-left La France Insoumise (polling at 8 percent) are certain that they will cast their ballots thus, according to the Elabe data»

* * * * * * *

In questo particolare momento politico, particolarmente fluido, Mr Macron avrebbe bisogno di un grande successo elettorale per consolidare la sua posizione domestica e per dar peso a livello europeo alle proprie idee.

Dovrebbe dimostrare di ave contenuto l’offensiva lanciatagli dai Gilets Jaunes e dai sindacati, di aver superato le sequele del caso Benalla, e di aver ammortizzato il niet tedesco ai suoi piani europei.

Difficile fare una stima, ancorché approssimata, ma se non riuscisse a passare la soglia del 40% queste elezioni europee dovranno essere considerate un severo smacco per Mr Macron.

Non solo. L’anno prossimo si terranno le elezioni amministrative, che si preannunciano per lui tute in salita, se non altro perché il suo partito, La République En Marche, non ha ancora avuto il tempo di consolidarsi sul territorio. Ma il controllo della periferia politica è peraltro essenziale, essendo questa la grande elettrice del senato.

*

Mancano poco meno di tre settimane al voto, e finalmente si potrà ragionare sui numeri usciti dalle urne.

*


France 24. 2019-04-04. Low-stakes European election in France – but not for Macron and Le Pen

Polling data suggests that the May 26 European election in France will see a battle for first place between Macron’s and Le Pen’s parties, low turnout, a disappointing result for a Yellow Vest list, and a drubbing for France’s fractured left.

A deadline to declare candidacies for the forthcoming European election expired on Friday with President Emmanuel Macron’s ruling La République En Marche (LREM) and Marine Le Pen‘s far-right Rassemblement National (RN) running neck-and-neck ahead of the May 26 vote, according to French polling institutes.

One survey by pollster Elabe, published on April 30 by French media network BFMTV, showed Macron’s party coming out on top with 22.5 percent of the vote, with Le Pen’s RN a close second at 21.5 percent.

The figures are similar to the results in the first round of the 2017 presidential election, in which Macron led with 24 percent of the vote, while Le Pen trailed at 21.3 percent.

However, another poll, published on May 2 by OpinionWay, put RN on top with 24 percent of the vote and a three-point lead over LREM.

Then called the Front National, Le Pen’s party claimed a resounding victory at the last European election in 2014, taking nearly 25 percent of the vote at a time when Macron’s party didn’t even exist.

Anything less than first place ‘a failure for Le Pen’

“If Macron’s party were to finish second to Le Pen’s now, it would reverse the dynamic of the 2017 presidential election and deal a severe blow to Macron’s ambition to lead a progressive revival of pro-European liberals against national populists in France and across the EU,” said Jim Shields, a professor of French politics at Warwick University, in an interview with FRANCE 24.

“Never have we seen European elections with such high stakes for a French president. And having come first in the last European elections of 2014, anything less now would seem like failure for Le Pen,” he continued.

With regard to the policy terrain on which the campaign is being fought, “two themes stand out: issues relating to sovereignty such as control of migratory flows and the fight against terrorism, on the one hand, and environmental issues on the other”, Bernard Sananès, president of the Elabe Institute, told AFP.

France’s right-wing party, Les Républicains (LR), which has moved in a socially conservative direction since electing Laurent Wauquiez as its leader in 2017, is projected to come third in the Elabe poll, with 15.5 percent of voting intentions – up by 1.5 points from its standing in a March 27 poll, marking the biggest change between the two surveys.

The April 30 poll suggests that those top three parties benefit from committed electoral bases: 79 percent of RN voters, 76 percent of LR voters and 74 percent of LREM supporters said they are sure of their choice.

Left-wing parties ‘more like saplings than trees’

By contrast, supporters of France’s divided and flagging left-wing parties – all polling in single digits – seem much less convinced. Just 63 percent of intended voters for Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s far-left La France Insoumise (polling at 8 percent) are certain that they will cast their ballots thus, according to the Elabe data.

This figure sinks to 56 percent when one turns to the fallen giant of France’s left, the Socialist Party (PS), and as low as 47 percent for Generation.s, the party founded and led by Benoît Hamon, who took a miserable 6 percent of the vote as the Socialists’ 2017 presidential election candidate. Both parties now risk missing out on the 5 percent threshold to enter the European Parliament.

Europe Écologie Les Verts, an environmentalist platform that tends to do well in European elections, fared better in the Elabe survey, polling at 9 percent, though just over half of its supporters said they were sure of their choice.

This failure of individual left-wing parties to attract committed supporters stems from the “inchoate nature of their programmes; it’s difficult to see what [PS head of list Raphael] Glucksman and Hamon are doing over the long term: their parties seem like groupuscules to be amalgamated in the future – more like saplings than trees,” Andrew Smith, a professor of French politics at the University of Chichester, postulated in an interview with FRANCE 24.

European elections ‘viewed as second-order’

The apparent lack of enthusiasm amongst intended left-wing voters seems to be part of a broader phenomenon of voter apathy with regard to the European elections in France. Overall, a mere 39 percent of the French electorate are “quite certain to vote” on May 26, the Elabe poll indicated.

For the first time, the heads of the French party lists took part in a televised debate on April 4. However, in a sign of the electorate’s apathy, the debate attracted a mere 1.9 million viewers, 9 percent of the audience – making it only the fourth most-watched programme in that time slot.

At present “there is a general, growing distrust of the political system and the political class – it’s a broad trend, not just in France,” Yves Sintomer, a professor of political science at Paris 8 University, told FRANCE 24.

“Ever since the first European elections held in 1979, parties in France have struggled to get their voters out in force for these elections, [because] these are viewed as second-order elections that lack the importance of presidential or parliamentary elections,” Shields added.

“In an already busy electoral calendar where national and subnational elections are held over two rounds, there is little impetus for many voters to go to the polls yet again for a supranational election that is thought not to really matter so much”, Shields continued.

Yellow Vests polling at just 3 percent

The emergence and persistent presence of the Yellow Vest protest movement in France looks likely to accentuate the abstention rate for the European elections in France, added Elvire Fabry, a European politics specialist at the Institut Jacques Delors think-tank in Paris: “The Yellow Vests are really concentrating the debate on domestic issues, pulling all European, international issues out of the debate,” she told FRANCE 24.

The Yellow Vests’ rise to prominence helps explain why Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise – the second biggest party in the National Assembly after LREM, and which many observers see as Macron’s most vigorous parliamentary opponent – languishes in fourth place in the Elabe survey.

“Mélenchon isn’t succeeding in the European election race, even with a young, dynamic head of list, because he didn’t succeed in providing meaningful answers to the Yellow Vests; if he had done so, he could really have capitalised on the success on their movement,” Fabry continued.

But despite such “success” in setting the terms of France’s political debate, the Yellow Vests movement, which announced its first European elections list this week, will probably not garner more than 3 percent of the vote, according to the Elabe survey.

“The Yellow Vests are polling so low because it’s difficult to carry their momentum into organised politics, and every time some of its members try to do so there’s a push back – a sense that people are trying to politicise something that’s apolitical,” Smith said.

Meanwhile the Yellow Vests’ bête noir, France’s self-declared “Jupiterian” president, could reap ample rewards from LREM edging RN at the top of the polls on May 26, Smith postulated: “If his party does well, it will act as a rally for the Macron project, creating an idea of a ‘second act’ to his presidential term that puts the Yellow Vest crisis firmly in the past”.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Macron. La polizia indagata sulle violenze del 1° maggio.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-05-07.

Macron Merkel Parigi

«French authorities are investigating riot police over three incidents of alleged violence towards May Day protesters in Paris.»

*

«Videos taken during clashes between police and protesters have been circulating on social media»

*

«One appears to show an officer insert a truncheon into a protester’s trousers on the Boulevard du Montparnasse.»

*

«In another an officer is seen slapping a protester while a third shows an officer hurling a paving stone.»

*

«Inspectors are investigating each incident at the request of Paris police chief Didier Lallement»

*

«Interior minister Christophe Castaner said “there will be punishment” if any officers are found to be at fault. He has himself faced calls to resign, after critics said he had spread “fake news” in accusing protesters of an “attack” on La Pitié-Salpêtrière hospital in Paris.»

*

«When Mr Castaner accused protesters on Thursday of attacking the hospital, hospital managers also spoke of staff having to block protesters at the door of the Pitié-Salpêtrière intensive care unit»

* * * * * * * *

Sono oramai molti mesi che i Patrioti scendono in piazza a dimostrare contro la Presidenza Macron.

Nell’ultimo sondaggio YouGov di fine aprile, solo un modestissimo 26% degli Elettori approva l’operato di Mr Macron: tutti gli altri lo disapprovano.

Oramai è da tempo che Mr Macron ha terminato il suo giro per la Francia per raccogliere i cahiers de doléances. Ma nessun provvedimento pratico è stato ancora preso.

La piazza non la si combatte a manganellate.

In piazza ci sono Cittadini Patrioti, nonché Elettori.

Se è logico che un governo intenda mantenere l’ordine pubblico, altrettanto logico sarebbe che il governo cercasse almeno di rimuover i problemi che hanno trascinato in piazza persone inferocite dal malgoverno.

«Macron responds to gilets jaunes protests with €5bn tax cuts.

President recognises protesters’ demands but vowed to still liberalise the economy.

Emmanuel Macron has vowed to make his style of politics more “humane”, but insisted he would press on with his project to liberalise the French economy and overhaul its welfare state despite five months of demonstrations by gilets jaunes (yellow vest) anti-government protesters.

In his first press conference in two years as president, Macron promised €5bn (£4.3bn) worth of cuts to income tax for lower and average earners as well as pension rises for the poorest and vowed no more schools or hospitals would be closed during his presidency, as he responded to protests. ….» [The Guardian]

Troppo poco, troppo tardi.

Gilets jaunes : gifle, pavé lancé… Des policiers mis en cause, quel acte 25 ?

Non ci si lamenti di manifestazioni troppo vivaci: ci si lamenti invece dell’incuria di questa presidenza che privilegia esclusivamente i ricchi.


Bbc. 2019-05-04. Paris May Day protests: Riot police probed over ‘assault’ videos

French authorities are investigating riot police over three incidents of alleged violence towards May Day protesters in Paris.

Videos taken during clashes between police and protesters have been circulating on social media.

One appears to show an officer insert a truncheon into a protester’s trousers on the Boulevard du Montparnasse.

In another an officer is seen slapping a protester while a third shows an officer hurling a paving stone.

Inspectors are investigating each incident at the request of Paris police chief Didier Lallement, reports say.

Interior minister Christophe Castaner said “there will be punishment” if any officers are found to be at fault.

He has himself faced calls to resign, after critics said he had spread “fake news” in accusing protesters of an “attack” on La Pitié-Salpêtrière hospital in Paris.

What the videos show

The videos were filmed as riot police were faced with May Day protests on Wednesday that involved gilets jaunes (yellow-vest) protesters and far-left “black-block” militants as well as traditional union marchers.

Journalist David Dufresne, who has highlighted allegations of police violence since the gilets jaunes protests began last year, posted the footage on his Twitter feed.

In one video, filmed on the Boulevard du Montparnasse, a protester is surrounded on the ground by CRS riot police and one appears to insert his truncheon inside the back of his trousers.

In another incident, a man is slapped twice in the face by an officer while a woman with him is pushed around.

Why is minister under pressure?

When Mr Castaner accused protesters on Thursday of attacking the hospital, hospital managers also spoke of staff having to block protesters at the door of the Pitié-Salpêtrière intensive care unit.

Paris May Day protests: Shock over hospital break-in

Macron unveils yellow vests reforms

Yellow vest violence returns to Paris

Who are the ‘gilets jaunes’?

The large teaching hospital is in the 13th arrondissement (district) in central Paris, near Place d’Italie, where police used tear gas to disperse demonstrators on Wednesday.

The minister said on Thursday that “black block” anti-capitalist militants were responsible for an “attack” on the hospital, where Princess Diana died in 1997.

On Friday, Mr Castaner accepted he “should not have used the term” attack but maintained that protesters did enter the hospital, and instead called it a “violent intrusion”.

“I have no problem recognising that I misspoke,” he told reporters.

Edouard Philippe told reporters he had “confidence” in Mr Castaner, saying he was “right” to correct his initial statement.

What really happened at the hospital?

Hospital director Marie-Anne Ruder told French media on Thursday that protesters – including some with masks and some gilets jaunes – were “violent and threatening” when they entered the hospital’s grounds.

Videos show protesters rushing through the gate closely followed by police. Some climb the outdoor staircase towards the intensive care unit amid an atmosphere of panic, as nurses shout “this is intensive care”.

“It was more like they were fleeing something,” said nurse Mikael Matos, who insisted none of the protesters wore a mask.

“We didn’t feel attacked or in danger,” Gwenaëlle Bellocq told Le Figaro, adding that while their arrival came as a surprise, the group listened to the medical team very quickly.

Police arrested 32 people, all of whom have now been released while investigations continue.

Traditionally a union-led day of action in France, the 1 May event was marked by clashes in which protesters smashed shop windows and threw projectiles at the more than 7,000 officers deployed in Paris.

They echoed the weekly “yellow-vests” protests that have swept France since last November, shaking the government of French President Emmanuel Macron.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Francia. Non si comprende dove vogliano andare i Les Républicains.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-05-03.

1475-1541_(1512)__Michelangelo__Cappella_Sistina__Pennacchio_01__Giuditta-ed_Oloferne_001_

Per lunghi decenni la Francia è stata governata dall’alternanza alla presidenza di esponenti del partito socialista e degli attuali Les Républicains.

Negli ultimi lustri questo meccanismo si è inceppato. Sotto il governo di Hollande il partito socialista francese è crollato al 6% ed i resti della sinistra storica si sono frantumati in un rivolo di piccolissimi partiti, che si guardano inoltre in cagnesco. Ma Sarkozy non p stato da meno, avendo demolito a picconate i Les Républicains.

Al momento attuale, sia i socialisti sia i Les Républicains mantengono ancora una ragionevole forza politica nelle regioni e nei comuni: amministrano il 100% degli enti locali. Cosa di grande importanza, perché in Francia sono proprio questi che eleggono il senato. Ma a livello nazionale, e quindi di riflesso in sede dell’europarlamento, non riescono più ad attirare l’Elettorato.

Per i Les Républicains il problema sembrerebbe essere semplice. Nel suo interno, pur ridotto ad un 13% su scala nazionale, si stanno agitando due fazioni opposte.

La prima fazione, quella che ha perso le passate elezioni, ha matrice culturale liberal ed aveva appiattito il partito su tale ideologia, facendone quasi un duplicato della sinistra. Era sequenziale che gli Elettori avessero preferito i socialisti veri a questi spuri.

La seconda fazione, ora in crescita, propugna una destra, intendendo con tale termine un partito avverso lo statalismo, che per di più si rifà alla radici religiose, storiche, sociali, politiche ed artistiche della Francia. È evidente la rota di collisione con la componente liberal, atea ed antireligiosa per visione ideologica.

*

Nei fatti, la Francia manca di un partito anti-statalista che abbia salde radici cattoliche.

* * * * * * *

«French conservative Les Républicains leader Laurent Wauquiez is set to name hardliner François-Xavier Bellamy to lead his party’s list for May European elections.»

*

«The nod has been criticised within the party for pushing LR yet further to the right.»

*

«the 33-year-old Bellamy is an unabashed conservative and a rising star in French conservative circles.»

*

«As such, the conservative Les Républicains’ objective in designating Bellamy as its list-topping candidate in the May 26th European Parliament elections is clear»

*

«France is the eldest daughter of the Church: on societal issues, a part of the right-wing remains within that traditional vision»

*

«The choice of Bellamy to represent the party in May is clearly aimed at satisfying that same nucleus of voters, whose hold within the party grew considerably during François Fillon’s fateful 2017 presidential campaign.»

*

«Support for Bellamy is, however, far from unanimous within what’s left of the struggling Républicains»

*

«European issues have been among the most divisive topics among conservatives in the wake of Macron’s election as president»

*

«And yet Wauquiez …. has taken the party in a decidedly Eurosceptic direction in recent months»

* * * * * * *

Francia. Les Républicains scelgono Mr Bellamy leader alle europee.

A nostro sommesso parere, tutto ha bisogno dei suoi tempi per maturare.

Se alle elezioni europee prossime venture i Les Républicains riuscissero ad ottenere un 13% dei voti sarebbe già un ottimo risultato.

Se poi lasciassero nell’oblio l’ostracismo ideologico dato a Mrs Marine Le Pen, i giochi politici in Francia potrebbe mutare radicalmente.


France 24. 2019-05-02. French conservatives tap Catholic hardliner to headline European elections bid

French conservative Les Républicains leader Laurent Wauquiez is set to name hardliner François-Xavier Bellamy to lead his party’s list for May European elections. The nod has been criticised within the party for pushing LR yet further to the right.

Unknown to the general public, the 33-year-old Bellamy is an unabashed conservative and a rising star in French conservative circles. A deputy mayor of Versailles since 2008, the young philosophy professor has authored two remarked-upon book-length essays. He notably also took part in the inception of Sens Commun, a political movement that grew out of the Manif Pour Tous anti-gay-marriage rallies and which has sometimes been likened to US hardline conservatives’ Tea Party movement. Bellamy is known to be opposed to abortion “personally”, although he has said he is not willing to call into question the law that allows it in France.

Touted as a representative of traditionalist Catholic conservatives in France, he has become a popular guest for media seeking comment on societal issues like the family and bioethics. As such, the conservative Les Républicains’ objective in designating Bellamy as its list-topping candidate in the May 26th European Parliament elections is clear: Relegated to a third-place finish in the 2017 French presidential election behind Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Front (now National Rally), the wounded conservative party is looking to attract an electorate split between backing LR and supporting a revamped NR.

“France is the eldest daughter of the Church: on societal issues, a part of the right-wing remains within that traditional vision,” Harris Interactive pollster Jean-Daniel Lévy observed to Agence France-Presse.

For his part, Wauquiez’s wager is undisguised. After all, back in November, it was before a crowd of Sens Commun activists that the 43-year-old conservative leader took on the battle against expanding the right to medically assisted reproduction to all French women. Speaking to a rapt crowd, Wauquiez’s warned then of a slippery slope towards surrogacy and evoked eugenics and Nazism to make his point. The choice of Bellamy to represent the party in May is clearly aimed at satisfying that same nucleus of voters, whose hold within the party grew considerably during François Fillon’s fateful 2017 presidential campaign.

“[Bellamy] is a high-quality young man who incarnates this new right-wing that we are hoping for and who will rebuild the right through ideas,” LR General Secretary and lawmaker Annie Genevard told France 24. “He is someone who gets involved in public debate and not only on the societal issues, as people too often say. He also talks about education, ecology, economics.”

Support for Bellamy is, however, far from unanimous within what’s left of the struggling Républicains. Last week, speaking to the conservative daily Le Figaro, former cabinet minister Eric Woerth lamented what he saw as a “strategy of the shrinking of a party that is more and more conservative”. The LR lawmaker appealed for the four names atop of the list to be representative of the entirety of the party’s attitudes.

Wauquiez responded, telling Le Figaro on Monday: “I am surprised by some people’s remarks. The right doesn’t rebuild by hanging its head. It doesn’t go forward when it apologises for its ideas.”

Nevertheless, the underlying message appears to have been received; on Tuesday, LR is due to tap moderates Agnès Evren and Arnaud Danjean for the second and third spots on the candidates’ list ahead of the European elections.

“It’s good I said what I needed to say because it has evidently contributed to modifying a list that must represent all of our schools of thought,” Woerth told France 24.

Apparently aware of the risk of being slapped with a staunch-conservative label, it will therefore be a trio that the party will seek to tout in the weeks to come, and not Bellamy alone.

This trio is “representative of our diversity and of the balance between renewal and experience”, party VP and former European Affairs minister Jean Leonetti tweeted on Monday. “The rest of the list should hold that course,” he added.

Will it be enough, when the vote rolls around on May 26, to enable Wauquiez’s party to elbow in on the duel for European Parliament seats that observers expect to see between Emmanuel Macron’s La République en Marche and Le Pen’s National Rally? European issues have been among the most divisive topics among conservatives in the wake of Macron’s election as president. And yet Wauquiez — whose conservative outfit has oscillated between a miserly eight and 13 percent in polls ahead of the European ballot — has taken the party in a decidedly Eurosceptic direction in recent months. Indeed, Bellamy personifies that change, too: As a 19-year-old in 2005, he voted “no” in the referendum on the European Constitution.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo

Europa. Risultati Elettorali 2017.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-04-24.

Europa 002

Riportiamo da Edn Hub i risultati elettorali 2017

Dopo le ferite riportate nel 2016 con l’esito del referendum sulla Brexit, il 2017 è stato l’anno della verità per l’Unione europea, con appuntamenti elettorali in Olanda, Bulgaria, Francia, Regno Unito, Germania, Repubblica Ceca, Austria e Malta. L’obiettivo, raggiunto parzialmente, era quello invertire l’ondata populista che, in tutti i Paesi, ha saputo imporre la sua agenda in campagna elettorale e si è trasformato nella terza forza europea.

Ecco tutti i risultati elettorali del 2017 e i tipi di governo che si sono formati o si formeranno, con una caratteristica sempre più diffusa: essere di coalizione.

– OLANDA – Il voto del 15 marzo 2017 nei Paesi Bassi ha scacciato il pericolo di una ‘Nexit’ (‘Netherland exit’), molto temuta a Bruxelles dopo quanto accaduto nel Regno Unito. A spuntarla è infatti stato il primo ministro uscente e leader dei conservatori, Mark Rutte, che con il 21,3% dei consensi si è imposto sul populista, euroscettico e antislamico Geert Wilders, terzo con il 13,1%. Oltre 13 milioni di olandesi si sono recati alle urne per decidere il nome del nuovo primo ministro e la composizione del Parlamento, segnando un dato record sull’affluenza (82%), la più alta degli ultimi trent’anni nel Paese. Dopo 208 giorni di colloqui, è stato raggiunto un accordo per la formazione del governo: a guidare il paese è una coalizione di centrodestra, con il Vvd, partito del premier Mark Rutte, insieme ai cristiano-democratici del Cda, ai liberali progressisti del D66 e ai conservatori della Christen Union. E’ stato eguagliato il record del 1977: anche allora furono necessari 208 giorni per formare un governo, operazione tradizionalmente lenta nel Paese.

– BULGARIA – Il partito conservatore filo-europeista Gerb, guidato  dal premier Boyko Borissov, ha vinto le elezioni politiche di domenica 26 marzo con il 33,55% dei voti. Al secondo posto si è collocato il Partito socialista di Kornelia Ninova, con poco più del 27,02% dei voti, mentre ha raggiunto il terzo posto la coalizione nazionalista Patrioti uniti, con il 9,12% dei voti.  L’affluenza alle urne è stata intorno al 50%. Si è trattato del primo appuntamento elettorale a livello nazionale in un Paese Ue dopo la firma, sabato 25 marzo 2017, della Dichiarazione di Roma in occasione delle celebrazioni nella capitale italiana per il 60° anniversario della sigla dei Trattati di Roma.

– FRANCIA – L’europeista Emmanuel Macron domenica 7 maggio ha vinto il ballottaggio delle elezioni presidenziali francesi con il 66,1% delle preferenze, contro il 33,9% della sfidante euroscettica e populista Marine Le Pen. Evitata, quindi, una ‘Frexit’, paventata dalla rivale con un referendum su Ue ed euro in caso di vittoria. Al primo turno del 23 aprile, dove era stata registrata un’affluenza attorno all’80%, il leader di ‘En Marche!’ era arrivato in testa con il 24,01% contro il 21,30% della leader del Front National. Al secondo turno, invece, l’astensione è stata record con il 25,44%, la più elevata dal 1969, mentre 3,01 milioni di francesi hanno votato scheda bianca e 1,06 milioni sono stati i voti nulli. Alle successive elezioni legislative del 18 giugno il partito En Marche! del presidente francese Macron ha sbancato con il 43,06% dei consensi, consegnandogli la maggioranza assoluta. Si è invece spenta l’onda populista e anti-Ue del Front National: dopo la sconfitta nella corsa all’Eliseo, il partito di Marine Le Pen è sceso all’8,75%.

– MALTA – Il 3 giugno il premier maltese Joseph Muscat, travolto da uno scandalo insieme alla moglie legato alle società offshore smascherate dai Panama Papers, e il suo partito laburista pro-Ue sono stati confermati alla guida del Paese con il 55% dei voti, sconfiggendo il leader del Partito Nazionalista Simon Busuttil.

– REGNO UNITO – L’8 giugno 2017 i cittadini britannici sono andati alle urne per le elezioni politiche anticipate (la legislatura si sarebbe conclusa nel 2020). La premier Theresa May aveva infatti deciso di promuovere lo scioglimento anticipato della Camera dei Comuni attraverso una mozione approvata dal Parlamento il 19 aprile 2017 con una maggioranza superiore ai due terzi. L’obiettivo della May era di avere una maggioranza parlamentare più forte per affrontare il processo della Brexit in una situazione più favorevole e imporre una ‘hard Brexit’. Obiettivo clamorosamente mancato: i Tory infatti si sono confermati primo partito del Regno Unito con il 42,4% dei consensi, ma non hanno raggiunto la maggioranza assoluta. In Parlamento hanno ottenuto 318 seggi, perdendone 12 rispetto al 2015. Exploit invece dei laburisti di Jeremy Corbyn, subito dietro al 40% (+9% rispetto al 2015), con 262 deputati e un balzo di 30 seggi in più. Venti giorni dopo le elezioni, May ha quindi firmato un accordo con il partito degli unionisti nordirlandesi del Dup, spalla del governo di minoranza Tory.

– GERMANIA – Le elezioni federali del 2017 per eleggere i membri del nuovo Bundestag, il parlamento tedesco, si sono tenute il 24 settembre. La cancelliera uscente Angela Merkel ne è uscita vincitrice ma indebolita: il suo partito, la Cdu-Csu ha ottenuto il 33% dei consensi (-8,5%). I socialisti della Spd, guidati dall’ex presidente del Parlamento europeo, Martin Schulz, si sono fermati al 20,5% (-5,2%), mentre si è verificata l’ascesa a sorpresa i populisti di Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), arrivati terzi al 12,6% (+7,9%). Il partito euroscettico, trascinato dai candidati di punta Alice Weidel e Alexander Gualand, con 95 i seggi conquistati è il primo partito di estrema destra ad entrare nel Parlamento federale tedesco dal secondo dopoguerra. Dopo il tentativo fallito di formare una coalizione guidata dall’Unione di Angela Merkel con i Liberali e i Verdi, la cosiddetta coalizione Giamaica – così denominata per i colori dei tre partiti nero-giallo-verde, come la bandiera della nazione caraibica -, si va ora verso una riedizione della Große Koalition tra Cdu-Csu e Spd. I colloqui però presentano ancora ostacoli. Due le alternative: un governo di minoranza della Cancelliera tedesca, utile nel breve periodo, oppure il ritorno alle urne.

– AUSTRIA – Il 15 ottobre si è votato per le elezioni parlamentari anticipate di un anno prima rispetto al termine naturale della legislatura. Il ministro degli Esteri uscente, Sebastian Kurz, leader del Partito popolare austriaco (ÖVP), è diventato premier con il 31,4% dei voti. L’estrema destra del Partito della libertà austriaco (FPÖ) di Heinz-Christian Strache, è arrivata seconda con il 27,4%, terzi i socialdemocratici di SPÖ guidati dal cancelliere uscente Christian Kern, al 26,7%. Il partito di Kurz, tuttavia, non ha raggiunto una maggioranza tale da poter governare da solo: dopo quasi due mesi di trattative, il 18 dicembre è arrivato il giuramento del nuovo governo di destra austriaco, guidato dalla coalizione tra l’ÖVP di Kurz e gli oltranzisti dell’FPÖ di Strache.

– REPUBBLICA CECA – Le elezioni parlamentari si sono tenute il 20 e 21 ottobre 2017.  Ha vinto il movimento Ano 2011, “Azione del cittadino scontento”, di Andrej Babis con il 29,64% e 78 seggi su 200 in Parlamento. Al secondo posto il centrodestra dei Civici democratici (Ods) con l’11,32% e 25 parlamentari. Al terzo posto i Pirati con il 10,79% e 22 seggi. Non avendo i numeri per formare una maggioranza di governo, Babis formerà con tutta probabilità un governo di minoranza che conti su ministri del suo partito e tecnici. Il mandato gli è stato affidato il 31 ottobre dal presidente ceco Milos Zeman, che ha detto di preferire l’opzione di un governo di minoranza a quello di un esecutivo di maggioranza, perché è il modo più semplice per promuovere le decisioni. Secondo Babis, il governo di minoranza è l’unica soluzione, dal momento che gli altri partiti entrati in Parlamento non vogliono entrare in coalizione con lui.

– CATALOGNA – A margine delle elezioni ufficiali per i governi di diversi Stati dell’Ue, il 21 dicembre 2017 si sono tenute anche le elezioni in Catalogna, indette dopo l’esito schiachiante del referendum per l’indipendenza dalla Spagna del 2 novembre 2017 e le inevitabili conseguenze (la dichiarazione di indipendenza della Catalogna e l’attuazione dell’articolo 155 da parte del governo di Madrid). I catalani hanno scelto nuovamente il campo indipendentista, infliggendo un sonoro schiaffo politico al premier spagnolo Mariano Rajoy. Ora la situazione è in stallo, con la maggior parte dei vincitori indipendisti o in carcere o rifugiati fuori dal Paese e nessuna apertura da parte del governo centrale. L’ex President catalano e leader indipendista Carles Puigdemont, in esilio a Bruxelles, è stretto tra due fuochi: se tornerà a Barcellona sarà arrestato, ma restando nella capitale belga non potrà essere nominato nuovamente President. La prima sessione del nuovo parlamento catalano, secondo quanto annunciato da Rajoy, dovrebbe tenersi il 17 gennaio 2018.