Giuseppe Sandro Mela.
2016-05-21.
Volenti o nolenti si dovrebbe capire come le sorti ed i destini dell’Unione Europea e dei suoi stati membri si decidano in Germania e, in misura minore, in Austria. Ovviamente, anche quelle dell’Italia.
Sicuramente incideranno le elezioni presidenziali austriache, così come il voto al referendum inglese sul Brexit.
Altrettanto sicuramente peseranno i risultati delle elezioni presidenziali francese che dovrebbero sancire il prossimo anno la morte politica del partito socialista francese e del suo Presidente Mr. Hollande.
Ma il fulcro dell’equilibrio è e resta la Germania.
Ed al momento la situazione apparirebbe essere simile a quella di un vulcano in fase pre-eruttiva: se crollasse la Große Koalition cambierebbe tutta la geopolitica tedesca e, di conseguenza, quella dell’Unione Europea, sempre che alla data delle elezioni federali ci sia ancora.
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Aggiungiamo i nuovi ai vecchi dati.
– Solo il 36% dei tedeschi voterebbe per un nuovo mandato a Frau Merkel. Stando così le cose, presentarla sarebbe il suicidio della Cdu.
– La Cdu mirerebbe a dismettere i socialdemocratici ed ad allearsi con i Grüne. Restano molti dubbi che una tale coalizione possa avere i numeri per governare. Ci si ricordi che se è importante il Bundestag altrettanto lo è il Bundesrat. Attualmente i governi dei Länder politicamente omogenei a quello nazionale possono contare su 25 voti, mentre quelli diversi (o formati interamente da partiti diversi, o dalla CDU insieme ad un partito che a livello federale è d’opposizione) dispongono di 44 voti.
– È la Cdu, la Luther Connection, che sta perdendo massicciamente consensi. Invece, la Csu bavarese sta aumentando le propensioni di voto nelle proiezioni: al 21 aprile era data al 48%. I socialisti scomparirebbero dal quadro politico bavarese riportando, forse, un 16%, mentre AfD sarebbe quotata al 9%.
Di questi giorni la proposta della Csu di fare campagna elettorale in modo disgiunto dalla Cdu. Con tutte le conseguenze.
Si mormora anche che la Bundeskanzlerin Frau Merkel starebbe per lanciare una grandioso progetto di destatalizzazione, e su questo argomento si parlerà nei prossimi giorni. Voci molto insistenti ma non ancora ben corroborate.
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Sembrerebbero delinearsi almeno quattro scenari.
– La Große Koalition potrebbe continuare a governare con un margine minimale, ma verosimilmente con un altro cancelliere, che potrebbe alla fine essere Herr Wolfgang Schäuble, che incontra ad oggi il 60% dei consensi.
– Una coalizione di Union (Cdu e Csu) con i Grüne: difficilmente potrebbe avere i numeri per governare.
– Una coalizione di Union (Cdu e Csu) con AfD, al momento politicamente impossibile.
Resta un ultimo scenario, che sembrerebbe essere il più probabile.
– Il chaos.
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Nulla è più terrificante per un popolo che per dire che tutto va bene dice “Alles in Ordnung“.
I tedeschi temono il chaos peggio della peste nera e, messi alle strette, potrebbero scegliere di farsi governare da uno sparviero pur di non dover soggiacere al chaos.
→ Deutsche Welle. 2016-05-15. Two-thirds of Germans oppose fourth term for Merkel: poll
Ahead of Germany’s federal election in 2017, a new poll shows that two-thirds of Germans oppose a fourth term for Chancellor Angela Merkel. The results echo other polls showing waning support for the governing coalition.
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German voters are tiring of Chancellor Angela Merkel after 11 years at the helm of the government, according to a new poll.
In the survey, conducted by polling company Insa for the German magazine “Cicero,” only 36 percent of respondents said they wanted Merkel and her Christian Democrats (CDU) to lead the government following federal elections in 2017.
Merkel has come under criticism for her open door policy on migration, which saw more than 1.1 million migrants, many from the war-torn Middle East, arrive in Germany last year.
The influx has slowed this year following the closure of the main Balkan route which migrants used to reach Germany.
However, implementation of a controversial migration deal between the EU and Turkey remains up in the air.
SPD plummets, AfD on the rise
Support for the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), has fallen to 33 percent, according to recent polls.
Differences over the migration issue have increased tensions between the two parties.
The conservatives’ coalition partner, the Social Democrats (SPD), have also seen their approval rating plummet to just 20 percent.
The anti-immigrant Alternative for German (AfD) has meanwhile moved from being a marginal party to securing 15 percent support.
→ Deutsche Welle. 2016-05-04. Study shows dips for SPD, Merkel’s bloc, more gains for AfD
Support for Germany’s populist right-wing AfD has climbed to 15 percent, a new Deutschlandtrend survey shows. Merkel’s conservative bloc has dipped to 33 percent and her SPD partners to 20 percent.
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Pollster Infratest dimap delivered alarming trends for Germany’s long-established parties on Wednesday. A new survey showed further erosion in voter support for the governing coalition partners. The results were especially bitter for the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), Merkel’s junior partners at federal level.
The SPD, which peaked in 2005 at 35 percent, slumped to just 20 percent in Infratest’s sampling of 1,503 voters, conducted on Monday and Tuesday, for the public ARD television network’s channel WDR.
It is the SPD’s lowest level of support since 1997 in regular “DeutschlandTrend” surveys, usually conducted for the ARD on Sundays.
AfD supporters undeterred by anti-Islam agenda
The 15 percent for the AfD followed its weekend conference in Stuttgart where the populist party adopted an anti-Islam manifesto.
It’s anti-immigration platform prompted widespread condemnation by established parties facing a new upstart third-placed party in Germany’s political scene.
The 33 percent overall for Merkel’s bloc, comprising her Christian Democrats (CDU) and allied Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU), ranks as the conservative’s lowest rating since October 2011 in trends regularly measured by pollsters for the ARD network.
Alarming returns for SPD’s Gabriel
Also alarming was the personal rating for SPD leader Sigmar Gabriel (pictured above, second from left): Only 38 percent of voters support the German vice-chancellor, SPD chairman and would-be aspirant to lead the SPD into next year’s federal parliamentary election.
His party colleague, Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier (pictured above, left) topped the list of Germany’s favorite politicians, with 70 percent voter support, followed by conservative veteran Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble on 60 percent.
Merkel came third in the personality stakes, scoring 55 percent, a decline of 1 percentage point since the previous survey. Fourth was Greens’ co-leader Cem Özdemir.
EU-Turkey deal unpopular
Ask about the recent EU-Turkey deal, only 33 percent of those surveyed said they favored visa-free entry to Europe for Turkish citizens. Only 38 percent endorsed the deal, designed to redistribute asylum-seekers stuck in Greece across the European Union.
The CDU/CSU bloc, commonly known as the “Union,” once garnered well over 40 percent. Such results came most recently during 2005 and again around 2014, according data from six various pollsters collated in a chart maintained by the news magazine “Der Spiegel.”
Asked if they were satisfied or very satisfied with the work of Merkel’s coalition, 46 percent answered yes, down 2 percentage points.
Support for Greens, Left unchanged
Two other established parties held their ground: Support for the Greens remained unchanged at 13 percent, according to Infratest-dimap. The ex-Communist Left party climbed to 8 percent, up one percent.
The Greens’ rating follows Monday’s finalization of a regional coalition in Germany’s southwestern state of Baden-Württemberg, to be led for a second term by its charismatic Green’s Premier Winfried Kretschmann.
That coalition amounts to a relegation to junior partner for Merkel’s CDU, which until 2011 had governed Baden-Württemberg for decades.
Trailing on 6 percent nationwide and just above a 5 percent threshold for parliamentary entry is the liberal Free Democrat (DP) party, down one percentage point.
Germany’s 2013 federal election left the liberals without seats in the federal Bundestag parliament. In recent regional elections, it made several comebacks, for example, in the state of Rhineland-Palatinate.
→ Deutsche Welle. 2016-05-07. CSU contemplates independent campaign against Merkel’s CDU in 2017 election
The Bavarian sister party to Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is pondering an even more independent campaign in Germany’s 2017 election. The refugee crisis and the rise of the AfD has divided the parties.
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German magazine “Spiegel” reported on Saturday that next year’s election could see the Christian Social Union (CSU) campaigning even more independently than in 2013.
At a meeting of the CSU Strategy Commission for next year’s election, Horst Seehofer, chairman of the CSU and Minister President of Bavaria, reportedly said that if the CDU fails to deal with the growing popularity of the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD), then the CSU must, at a pinch, launch its own election campaign.
The populist AfD, which was initially founded as an anti-bailout alliance in 2013, is now represented in eight of Germany’s 16 state parliaments. Even at the national level, the party has made strong gains, with opinion polls suggesting that they now hold between 12 and 14 percent of the vote.
According to German newspaper “Bild,” Merkel told party allies on Monday that more needed to be done to win over conservative voters to prevent even more of them jumping ship to support the AfD. The CDU must “grapple with other opinions, including those of the AfD, without foam at the mouth and without blanket prejudice,” Merkel said.
Differences previously ‘unimaginable’
In the event that the CSU campaigns indepependently for the 2017 chancellery, Seehofer would run at the top of the national candidates,”Spiegel” reported.
“Then it must be made clear to voters that they’re not choosing Merkel, but the CSU,” Seehofer said.
Transport Minister Alexander Dobrindt (CSU) told “Spiegel” that it was unclear whether there would be a common election platform of both parties.
“I’d never have imagined that the CDU and CSU could even think so differently about such a central topic as we’ve seen on the issue of refugees,” he added.
n light of the unprecedented influx of some 1.1 million refugees to Germany last year, tensions between the two sister parties have dramatically increased in recent months, with Seehofer – whose state lies on the border with Austria and thus at the heart of Germany’s refugee crisis – publicly criticizing Merkel’s open-door policy on countless occasions.
The CSU has repeatedly called on Merkel to restrict the number of new refugee arrivals this year to 200,000. But with the chancellor strongly opposed to limiting the amount of people able to seek asylum in Germany, tensions remain high.
‘Bavaria plan’
The CSU already stressed their independence in the 2013 chancellery election campaign. Although there was a common election manifesto, the CSU still campaigned for the national, as well as the state election with a “Bavaria plan.”
Included in the plan were points which the CSU was unable to include in the joint manifesto due to opposition from the CDU, such as the introduction of a car toll fee for foreigners and nationwide referendums on fundamental EU decisions.
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