Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Senza categoria, Unione Europea

Merkel. La fronda vorrebbe farla fuori.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-04-24.

2019-04-25__Luigi di Borbone, principe di Condé

Luigi di Borbone, principe di Condé. Versailles.


Ogni potere assoluto, de iure o de facto, genera di per sé stesso movimenti avversi dei quali la fronda fu a giusto titolo uno dei più famosi, anche se alla fine le sue ambizioni si infransero nella Battaglia delle Dune.

Sotto il regime di Frau Merkel la Germania è stata gestita con mano di ferro e Weltanschauung liberal.

Se nel 2011 il pil tedesco era 3,761 miliardi Usd, a fine 2018 valeva 4,000 miliardi Usd: praticamente invariato, mentre quello americano e cinese era cresciuto notevolmente.

Ma non è solo l’economia entrata in stagnazione a caratterizzare la Germania attuale. La crisi è politica, ed anche profonda. Nelle elezioni del 24 settembre 2017 i partiti tradizionali, Cdu ed Spd hanno subito una débâcle clamorosa. Il quadro partito è andato parcellizzandosi, l’Spd ha regolarmente perso le successive tornate elettorali nei Länder, tenendo così buona compagnia alla Cdu in rotta.

L’Asse francogermanico si è rotto, e l’essersi appiattita sulle posizioni di Mr Juncker ha accentuato l’isolamento internazionale tedesco, già in rotta di collisione con gli Stati Uniti di Mr Trump.

Ad ora il sistema economico tedesco si è inceppato, le grandi industrie stanno delocalizzando rapidamente e povertà e miseria stanno crescendo a vista d’occhio. La mission di Frau Merkel potrebbe dirsi quasi completata.

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Frau Merkel ci ricorda Hitler chiuso nel suo bunker a resistere fino a quando non ha sentito i cigolio dei carri armati russi. Poi si è suicidato, ma ha lascito una ben triste eredità alla Germania.

Frau Merkel è troppo superba ed orgogliosa per ammettere il suo fallimento e dimettersi.

Ma, come diceva Caifa profetando, “la morte di uno può salvare un popolo“.

«Angela Merkel says she wants to remain in office until her term is up»

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«But behind the scenes, plans are already being hatched for Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer to take over the chancellorship»

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«After 14 years in power, Angela Merkel is slowly but surely on her way out»

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«Media reports in the country have speculated that Merkel’s departure may be imminent»

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«While she [AKK] does not appear to have radical changes in mind, she holds more conservative positions than Merkel on matters such as immigration, gay marriage and integration within the European Union»

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«Her rise has been welcomed by more conservative factions within the CDU, including from Friedrich Merz, who launched an unsuccessful, albeit close, bid to lead the party last fall. Once rivals, Kramp-Karrenbauer and Merz are now working side by side. And they seems to be on good terms»

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«Officially, Merkel wants to remain in power until her tenure is up in 2021. But behind the scenes, all kinds of scenarios are being considered to help Kramp-Karrenbauer take the chancellery»

* * * * * * * *

Tra un mese si terranno le elezioni europee, ed entro l’anno si voterà in quattro Länder. critici, ove si prevedono bagni di sangue sia per la Cdu sia per l’Spd.

Quando a dicembre si terrà il congresso della Cdu si potrebbe arrivare alla resa dei conti. I tedeschi chiudono sempre le stalle quando sono scappati buoi, vacche, vitelli e stallieri.

Chi odiasse visceralmente ed a morte la Germania, farà certamente auspici che Frau Merkel continua a governarla. ma con Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer saranno soddisfatti non solo gli odiatori ma anche solo gli scontenti.

Al peggio non c’è mai limite.


Deutsche Welle. 2019-04-23. How long will Angela Merkel’s chancellorship last?

Angela Merkel says she wants to remain in office until her term is up. But behind the scenes, plans are already being hatched for Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer to take over the chancellorship.

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After 14 years in power, Angela Merkel is slowly but surely on her way out. She has already stood down as the leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer has taken over as head of the conservative party, and it is an open secret that Merkel would love to see her become the next German chancellor, too. But how and when could this happen? Media reports in the country have speculated that Merkel’s departure may be imminent. Indeed, she has almost entirely abstained from campaigning for the CDU ahead of the European Parliament elections.

Merkel, a scientist by training, appears to have made a rational decision to not interfere Kramp-Karrenbauer’s political affairs. She wants to give her space to lay out her own agenda and gain a following.

More conservative than Merkel

Kramp-Karrenbauer, popularly known in Germany as AKK, has her own set of policy goals and is keen to reorient the CDU. While she does not appear to have radical changes in mind, she holds more conservative positions than Merkel on matters such as immigration, gay marriage and integration within the European Union.

Her rise has been welcomed by more conservative factions within the CDU, including from Friedrich Merz, who launched an unsuccessful, albeit close, bid to lead the party last fall. Once rivals, Kramp-Karrenbauer and Merz are now working side by side. And they seems to be on good terms.

Kramp-Karrenbauer has been campaigning for the European Parliament elections with Merz, who has been forthright about the fact that he would like to become a minister in a potential Kramp-Karrenbauer government.

Social Democrats reject AKK

Officially, Merkel wants to remain in power until her tenure is up in 2021. But behind the scenes, all kinds of scenarios are being considered to help Kramp-Karrenbauer take the chancellery. Traditionally in Germany, sitting chancellors remain in power until their term is up, and parliament — the Bundestag — decides who takes the post next.

The country’s current grand coalition government — made up of the CDU, their Bavarian sister party, the CSU, and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) — still commands a parliamentary majority. Yet the SPD has already announced it won’t back Kramp-Karrenbauer as Merkel’s successor. They want to prevent Merkel stepping down prematurely and being replaced by Kramp-Karrenbauer, who could benefit tremendously from taking the chancellorship ahead of the 2021 general elections.

No future for grand coalition

This refusal to endorse Kramp-Karrenbauer has put the coalition itself at risk and could necessitate snap elections. That’s a scenario the SPD, which has for over a year seen its approval ratings hover near the 17% mark, 3 points fewer than at the last election, would surely like to avoid. But polls indicate that the CDU, too, would most likely have to contend with similar losses in an early election. Germany’s two biggest parties thus potentially lack the seats needed to form yet another grand coalition.

Kramp-Karrenbauer could instead try to forge an alliance with the business-friendly Free Democrats (FDP) and the Greens, something Germany nearly saw after the 2017 general election. The three parties spent two weeks negotiating a future coalition government until the FDP pulled out of talks. But now, two years later, it may be the Greens who are hesitant to team up with the CDU. The environmentalist party’s approval ratings are rising, with the latest polls indicating it could win as much as 20% of the vote. The Greens will thus likely be eager for fresh elections.

Final verdict in December

It may in fact be the Social Democrats who determine how much longer Merkel stays in power. After all, the coalition agreement states that all parties involved will evaluate their government once half the term is up, then decide whether to keep going or disband. The SPD is set to make its judgment at a party conference in December.

What the SPD opts to do will in part depend on how a series of key votes this year play out. In addition to the European Parliament vote on 26 May, Bremen is holding state elections the same day. Moreover, nine states hold district assembly, municipal and district council elections on that day, as well. On September 1, the states of Brandenburg and Saxony hold parliamentary elections, and Thuringia follows suit on October 27.

AKK in 2020?

Should the SPD struggle in these elections, it will embolden the vast number of party members who opposed joining the CDU in the first place. And if this camp gains enough support, they could vote to pull out of the grand coalition, putting the SPD into opposition. That, in turn, would put an end to Merkel’s chancellorship. She could make an attempt to revive coalition talks with the Greens and FDP, though it is unlikely this would bear fruit.

Kramp-Karrenbauer could potentially find herself moving into Merkel’s office by 2020.

Annunci
Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Unione Europea

Germania. Produzione auto -4.1%, insolvenze +5.7%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-04-10.

2019-04-10__Destatis__001

Da un po’ di tempo leggere i report di Destatis, l’Istituto di Statistica tedesco, ricorda sempre più da vicino il succedersi dei bollettini di guerra del 1945.

Germania. Sommovimenti di piazza per il caro-affitti.

Germania. Ordini Industria -4.2%, -8.4% a/a.

Germania. Il 45% dei migranti fallisce l’esame di tedesco parlato.

Germania. VW e Ford annunciano decine di migliaia di licenziamenti e chiusure.

Germania. Il ministro Altmaier prospetta un’economia pianificata.

Merkel. Sta diventando il ‘becchino’ della Germania, e dell’EU. – Bloomberg

Germania. La miseria sta crescendo. – Handelsblatt. Confindustria Tedesca.

Germania. Verso una stagnazione irreversibile. I numeri.

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Di oggi altri sconsolanti report.

– La produzione automobilistica è calata del -7.1% nel secondo trimestre dello scorso anno;

– le insolvenze sono aumentate del 5.7%;

– i nuovi ordini all’industria sono calati dell’8.4%.

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Almeno un elemento sarebbe da essere sottolineato.

Mentre la produzione automobilistica è crollata in Germania del -7.1%, le case automobilistiche tedesche hanno aperto nuovi stabilimenti produttivi in Russia.

Il problema non è quindi della Mercedes oppure della Volkswagen, che sono vive e vegete, ma del clima politico, sociale ed economico che si esperisce in Germania.

Il freno del sistema economico tedesco ha un nome ed un cognome: Frau Angela Merkel.

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Destatis. Pressrelease #139 from April 9, 2019

Due to its size and interdependence, the automotive industry in Germany has considerable importance for the overall economic development. In the course of 2018, however, the production of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers decreased markedly. To coincide with the Techno Classica automobiles show taking place in Essen from 10 to 14 April 2019, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reports that production in the second half of 2018 was a calendar and seasonally adjusted 7.1% lower than in the first half of the year. 

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Destatis. Pressrelease #142 from April 10, 2019

In January 2019, German local courts registered 1,700 business insolvencies. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reports that this was a 5.7% increase compared with January 2018.

The local courts reported that, in relation to the business insolvency requests, the prospective debts owed to creditors amounted to just under 1.2 billion euros in January 2019.

Basic data and long time series are available in tables Insolvency proceedings (enterprises) (52411-0004) and Insolvency proceedings (other debtors) (52411-0009) in the GENESIS-Online database.

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Destatis. Pressrelease #132 from April 4, 2019

February 2019 (provisional): new orders in manufacturing
-4.2% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
-8.4% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)

January 2019 (revised): new orders in manufacturing
-2.1% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
-3.6% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)

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Destatis. Pressrelease #118 from March 28, 2019

In 2018, nearly 122,700 businesses were started whose legal form and number of employees suggest that they have greater economic importance. Based on an evaluation of business notifications, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that this was a 2.2% decline compared with 2017.

The number of small business start-ups dropped by 3.4% year on year to nearly 169,100 in 2018. In contrast to that, the number of newly established part-time businesses rose slightly by 0.6% to roughly 250,700.

Pubblicato in: Armamenti, Devoluzione socialismo, Ideologia liberal, Unione Europea

Paesi europei dovranno produrre ‘German free products’. Germany is out.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-03-31.

Mendicanti 012 Pietr Brueghel. Ciechi che guidano ciechi. Louvre

Sotto il cancellierato Merkel la Germania ha mostrato ripetutamente di non voler avere contati politici e commerciali con i paesi che non si siano adeguati ai suoi standard di ‘human rights’ e, più in generale, alla sua Weltanschauung.

Diciamo come questo modo di pensare non attiri certo nuove amicizie e sottomini quelli esistenti.

Clamoroso è stato l’embargo nei confronti dell’Arabia Saudita.

Germany rebuffs UK call to lift ban on arms exports to Saudi Arabia

Germany’s Angela Merkel makes arms export pact with France

German export policies threaten European defense projects: French ambassador

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Frau Merkel mette spesso in atto una serie di misure politiche apparentemente contrastanti.

Usualmente assume la veste di una puritana immarcescibile: non si parla, non si commercia, non si tratta con quanti non aderiscano alla sua Weltanschauung, alla sua scala valoriale, che vorrebbe imporre a tutto il mondo.

Ma ogni tanto si autoassolve per aver fatto alcuni peccatucci:

Russia. Yamal. Francia e Germania con il muso nella greppia delle sanzioni.

Il Nord Stream 2 prosegue nonostante che la Russia sia stata coperta di sanzioni, tanto per fare un esempio.

* * *

Il problema diventa però più complesso ancora quando la Germania vieta alle nazioni, con le quali aveva collaborato con progetti congiunti, di esportare sistemi di arma che contengano tecnologia tedesca.

«Germany manufactures key components of European defense projects, amplifying the effect of its export bans. Britain’s foreign secretary warned that the Saudi arms export ban damages common European defense policy.»

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«Prior to the meeting, German magazine Der Spiegel reported that Hunt had sent a letter to Maas on February 7 warning him that Germany’s ban undermined common European defense projects and the ability of NATO allies to fulfill commitments»

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«Germany decided in November to stop arms exports to Saudi Arabia  — one of the world’s largest weapons markets — after the assassination of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the kingdom’s consulate in Istanbul.»

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«Germany accounts for a small fraction of Saudi weapons imports, but it makes vital components for other countries’ arms industries to fulfill contracts.»

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«In the letter seen by Der Spiegel, Hunt said British defense firms would not be able to fulfil several contracts with Riyadh, including the delivery of Eurofighter Typhoon and the Tornado fighter jet. Both are made with parts produced by Germany’s arms industry.»

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«It is imperative that you immediately remove major European defense projects such as the Eurofighter and the Tornado from the arms embargo, …. a loss of confidence in the credibility of Germany as a partner»

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«This letter shows how Germany’s arms export practices are costing it the ability to partner with its closest European allies»

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«Germany’s unilateral arms export policy was damaging plans for a common European defense policy and undermining the arms industries of NATO allies.»

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«for example, helicopters, the German side gives itself the right to, for example, block the sale of a French helicopter»

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«the company might need to develop “German-free products” in the future»

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Due sono i punti sensibili:

«a loss of confidence in the credibility of Germany as a partner …. practices are costing it the ability to partner with its closest European allies»

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«to develop “German-free products”»

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Non tutti condividono la pulsione tedesca al suicidio.

Più la Germania di Frau Merkel si erge a paladina della propria scala valoriale, peraltro solo da lei condivisa, e meno riesce a proporla agli altri e si isola sempre più profondamente, anche a costo di alienarsi i pochi amici internazionali che le sono rimasti.

La perdita di credibilità è forse l’aspetto peggiore: ci si mette una vita a costruirsi l’immagine di persona affidabile, ma bastano pochi istanti per perderla definitivamente.

Che poi inglesi e francesi convengano sulla necessità di costruire “German-free products” la conta davvero lunga.

Infine l’aspetto più grottesco che tragicomico è quanto il popolo tedesco non riesca a comprendere cosa stia facendo Frau Merkel a suo danno.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Macron Piccola Europa in Grande Francia. Accordi con Xi per 40 mld.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-03-27.

Richelieu. 001

«Per essere grande la Francia deve rinunciare ad essere immensa»

Cardinal Richelieu.


‘Human rights abuse’??

Ma di che parla costui?? Calunnia la Cina, grande amica e partner commerciale della Francia??

Unione Europea?? E che mai sarebbe a confronto della Francia?? Suvvia: la Francia è l’Unione Europea.

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«France has signed €40bn of business deals with China, despite concerns on strategic investment and human rights abuse.»

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«The bulk of the new deals, worth €30bn, were in the form of 300 airplanes to be sold by European firm Airbus to China Aviation Supplies Holding Company, while the rest covered energy, transport, and food»

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French president Emmanuel Macron and Chinese president Xi Jinping announced the moves at a bilateral meeting in France on Monday (25 March).»

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«They will meet again in an enlarged format with German chancellor Angela Merkel and European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker also in France on Tuesday»

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«Xi is in Paris after having earlier gone to Rome to sign a memo on Italy’s participation in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) – a vast scheme for Chinese investment in European infrastructure projects, among others»

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«French investors are welcome to share development opportunities in China»

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«The wave of Chinese investment, which had so far focused on poorer central European states, has raised alarm in Europe that China’s acquisition of sensitive assets, such as commercial ports, or involvement in high-end IT projects, such as 5G telecoms networks, posed strategic, intellectual property, and security threats to the EU»

* * *

«”If some countries believe that they can do clever business with the Chinese, then they will be surprised when they wake up and find themselves dependent,” German foreign minister Heiko Maas warned on Sunday»

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«in Italy and other European countries, infrastructure of strategic importance like power networks, rapid rail lines or harbours [will] no longer be in European, but in Chinese hands»

* * *

«The European Union is based on respect for individual freedoms and fundamental rights, – Macron said – That’s why France brings up this issue in its dialogue with China – to express concerns that are ours and those of Europe on the question of respecting fundamental rights in China»

* * *

Concludendo.

Gli affari sono affari.

Se i cinesi hanno messo un milione di mussulmani nel laogai è solo un trascurabile problema di loro politica interna : se ciò fosse ostacolo insuperabile per i tedeschi, questo sarebbe fatti loro. La Francia, tira diritto per la sua strada, mica come gli identitari populisti italiani.

Siamo chiari. Non i populisti, bensì Mr Macron ha distrutto l’Unione Europea.


EU Observer. 2019-03-26. France takes Chinese billions despite EU concerns

 France has signed €40bn of business deals with China, despite concerns on strategic investment and human rights abuse.

The bulk of the new deals, worth €30bn, were in the form of 300 airplanes to be sold by European firm Airbus to China Aviation Supplies Holding Company, while the rest covered energy, transport, and food.

French president Emmanuel Macron and Chinese president Xi Jinping announced the moves at a bilateral meeting in France on Monday (25 March).

They will meet again in an enlarged format with German chancellor Angela Merkel and European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker also in France on Tuesday.

Xi is in Paris after having earlier gone to Rome to sign a memo on Italy’s participation in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) – a vast scheme for Chinese investment in European infrastructure projects, among others.

He said alongside Macron in the Elysee palace in Paris that “French investors are welcome to share development opportunities in China”.

“I also hope that Chinese companies can do better in France and make a greater contribution to its economic and social development”, he added.

“We want our development to benefit others and that’s the case with the BRI,” he said.

The wave of Chinese investment, which had so far focused on poorer central European states, has raised alarm in Europe that China’s acquisition of sensitive assets, such as commercial ports, or involvement in high-end IT projects, such as 5G telecoms networks, posed strategic, intellectual property, and security threats to the EU.

“If some countries believe that they can do clever business with the Chinese, then they will be surprised when they wake up and find themselves dependent,” German foreign minister Heiko Maas warned on Sunday.

Gunther Oettinger, Germany’s EU commissioner, also voiced concern the same day that, soon, “in Italy and other European countries, infrastructure of strategic importance like power networks, rapid rail lines or harbours [will] no longer be in European, but in Chinese hands”.

Macron himself, speaking on Monday, said he had invited Merkel and Juncker precisely to address those fears by creating a common EU front.

“Europe must be united and have a coherent message. That’s what we are doing on strategic investments,” he said.

“Beyond the bilateral relationship, we have placed at the centre of our discussions the question of the partnership between China and Europe,” he added.

Xi’s visit to Paris was marked by protests against China’s mass imprisonments of its Muslim Uighur minority and of its oppression of Tibet.

Grace Meng, the wife of Meng Hongwei, a reformist Chinese official who was president of Interpol, the international police agency based in France, until he vanished while on a trip to China last year amid bribery allegations, also spoke out.

“I hope the president [Macron] can help Mr Meng and his family, to protect our fundamental human rights,” she told French media.

“They [Chinese authorities] have no bottom line. Even if I am in France, they want to kidnap me and my children,” she warned.

The French and Chinese leaders, who also held a private dinner with their wives on Sunday, nodded to the protests.

Values?

“China will always back cooperation and development with Europe, which falls in line with our multilateral values,” Xi said at the Elysee on Monday.

“The European Union is based on respect for individual freedoms and fundamental rights,” Macron said.

“That’s why France brings up this issue in its dialogue with China – to express concerns that are ours and those of Europe on the question of respecting fundamental rights in China,” he added.

They did not take questions from press on the potentially prickly issues, however.

The aviation firm at the centre of the new deal, Airbus, was even more deaf to mention of values.

“We are honoured to support the growth of China’s civil aviation with our leading aircraft families – single-aisle and wide-bodies,” Airbus’ commercial aircraft president and its new CEO-in-waiting, Guillaume Faury, said.

Barriers to fall

Top EU officials and China will meet at a subsequent summit in Brussels on 9 April.

A draft summit communique, seen by the Reuters news agency, called for the removal of market access barriers on both sides to stimulate further investment despite the strategic concerns.

China and the EU will “agree by summer 2019 on a set of priority market access barriers and requirements facing their operators,” the draft statement said.

The two sides would set “deadlines for their swift removal by the next EU-China summit in 2020 at the latest”, it added.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Merkel. Sta diventando il ‘becchino’ della Germania, e dell’EU. – Bloomberg

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-03-18.

Merkel 001

Per fortuna che Bloomberg è una testata liberal amica intima di Frau Merkel.

Se fosse stata nemica non avremmo potuto immaginare cosa mai avrebbe detto.

“come cancelliere tedesco posso solo dire: le prospettive ci sembrano pessime per noi.”

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“La sua disperazione è stata sempre più evidente.”

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“Il governo sta correndo dietro gli avvenimenti”

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“La politica economica strategica è stata ignorata”

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Quando un governante non sa visibilmente che pesci prendere, sarebbe proprio ora di cambiarlo. Di rottamarlo.

Tuttavia Frau Merkel ricopre un ruolo di somma importanza nel ridimensionare il ruolo egemone che la Germania ebbe in passato nel governo dell’Unione Europea. Assieme al suo sodale Macron stanno picconando questa Europa, facilitando grandemente il compito degli identitari sovranisti.

Merkel e Macron sono ad oggi i migliori alleati degli identitari sovranisti.

* * * * * * *

«as German chancellor I can only say: the prospects look bad for us»

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«Her desperation has been increasingly evident.»

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«The government is running behind the developments»

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«Strategic economic policy has been ignored»

* * * * * * *

«President Donald Trump’s America First policy is forcing Germany to make an impossible choice between the U.S. and China—pitting the force behind the country’s modern economic success against the key to its future growth»

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«The result is political paralysis at a time when Germany’s allies are looking for political leadership»

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«The economy is slowing, populists urged on by Trump are advancing across the European Union, and Merkel’s strategic rivals are hatching plans to prize more countries away from the multilateral system she treasures»

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«Her desperation has been increasingly evident.»

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«U.S. tariffs would reduce German car exports by about 18.4 billion euros ($20.7 billion)»

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«The autos dispute is a sign of the way that geopolitics is becoming increasingly uncomfortable for Germany»

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«Trump has sown doubts about his commitment to defending America’s NATO allies, populists across Europe are rallying opposition to free trade and challenging fundamental tenets of EU membership, and China is offering an  alternative funding source to weaker nations like  Italy, Portugal and Greece, frustrated by Germany’s insistence on budget tightening.»

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«Germany is caught up in a dilemma of changing trade patterns and doesn’t know how to react»

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«But in most areas, the chancellor’s desire to avoid inviting trouble prevents Germany, and often the EU, from taking a stand»

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«The government is running behind the developments»

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«Strategic economic policy has been ignored»

* * * * * * *

Cosa mai si dovrebbe aggiungere?


Bloomberg. 2019-03-12. Germany Is Paralyzed by an Impossible Choice

For decades, the country watched the money roll in. Now the global trade order is unraveling.

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The global order that underpins German prosperity is unraveling. And Angela Merkel doesn’t know what to do about it.

President Donald Trump’s America First policy is forcing Germany to make an impossible choice between the U.S. and China—pitting the force behind the country’s modern economic success against the key to its future growth.

The result is political paralysis at a time when Germany’s allies are looking for political leadership.

On issues from trade to cyber security to international tax reform, Merkel is hamstrung by her fear of antagonizing her country’s key trading partners. The fear in Merkel’s inner circle is that any firm position risks a backlash that could see tensions spiral out of control, according to people familiar with their thinking.

The urgency is intensifying. The economy is slowing, populists urged on by Trump are advancing across the European Union, and Merkel’s strategic rivals are hatching plans to prize more countries away from the multilateral system she treasures. Her desperation has been increasingly evident.

 “Are we splitting up into little puzzle pieces with everyone thinking they can best solve problems on their own?” Merkel asked last month at the Munich Security Conference. “If that’s case, as German chancellor I can only say: the prospects look bad for us.”

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Merkel is determined to keep reaching out to Trump

——

In the eye of the storm is Germany’s mighty car industry, which is already grappling with the transition to an era of self-driving, electric vehicles.

Trump is threatening to levy tariffs on imported European cars, a move that would hit Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Volkswagen AG’s Porsche particularly hard. U.S. tariffs would reduce German car exports by about 18.4 billion euros ($20.7 billion), according to a study by the Munich-based Ifo economic research institute.

Despite the antagonism from the White House, and to the frustration of the French, Merkel is determined to keep reaching out to Trump. The German leader wants to get the U.S. involved in negotiations on a broader trade deal as quickly as possible and is concerned that EU retaliation on tariffs would evolve into a full-scale trans-Atlantic trade conflict, a person familiar with the government’s position said.

The autos dispute is a sign of the way that geopolitics is becoming increasingly uncomfortable for Germany. For decades, the country profited from an international trading system run by the West and backed up by the military might of the U.S. The government just got out of the way and watched exports roll.

Those days are now over. Trump has sown doubts about his commitment to defending America’s NATO allies, populists across Europe are rallying opposition to free trade and challenging fundamental tenets of EU membership, and China is offering an  alternative funding source to weaker nations like  Italy, Portugal and Greece, frustrated by Germany’s insistence on budget tightening.

“Germany is caught up in a dilemma of changing trade patterns and doesn’t know how to react,” said Sebastian Dullien, an analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

As a result, Merkel has flip-flopped between engagement and assertiveness. At times she tries to court both the U.S. and China, at others she articulates a stronger national stance in response to threats, but she has yet to follow through.

One area where the chancellor has taken a stand is over a new gas pipeline to Russia. Merkel stuck to her guns over the Nord Stream 2 project despite trenchant complaints from the U.S. about increasing dependence on Moscow and European concerns about weakening Ukraine. The government has also tightened rules on foreign takeovers in a bid to shield German technology from economic rivals like China, in line with Economy Minister Peter Altmaier’s new industrial strategy for Germany.

But in most areas, the chancellor’s desire to avoid inviting trouble prevents Germany, and often the EU, from taking a stand.

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“The government is running behind the developments”

——

A French push to forge a common European front to tackle the esoteric tax structures of Internet giants like Amazon.com Inc, Alphabet Inc. and Facebook Inc. is another victim of German caution, and again it’s the car industry that’s at the heart of it.

The French plan would have seen tech firms—in practice most of them U.S.-based—taxed on the basis of where their sales are generated, rather than where their services were produced. That’s a frightening precedent for an export powerhouse like Germany, especially when Trump is looking for excuses to penalize its car makers.

So rather than take the lead alongside France, Merkel’s administration wants to wait for an international consensus to emerge and provide cover, a person familiar with the government’s position said. Finance Minister Olaf Scholz wants to tie the U.S. into an international accord before a European digital tax moves ahead. The French, meanwhile, are introducing a national levy, despite the lack of support from their most important partner.

“The government is running behind the developments,” said Kerstin Andreae, a Green lawmaker on the lower-house of parliament’s economics committee. “Strategic economic policy has been ignored.”

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Unione Europea

Germania. Come perdere 38 miliardi Usd.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-03-17.

Das Brandenburger Tor in Berlin

La Germania ha perso 38 miliardi Usd.

«Temporary factors cost the German economy about 34 billion euros ($38 billion) in the second half of 2018, when it tipped dangerously close to a recession»

*

«A simulation by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy looked at the state of industry while stripping out the effects from one-offs that dented growth»

*

«A change in car-industry regulations last summer, low water levels on the Rhine river, and a curious breakdown in pharmaceutical output were seen as among the culprits behind the industrial slump»

*

«Germany’s economy ministry said car-model changes and strikes at suppliers emerged as new challenges, after factory orders and output took an unexpected hit in January.»

* * *

La Germania sta agonizzando soffocata dallo stesso corpo legislativo che si era data sicura di futuri trionfi.

L’insieme delle leggi, regolamenti ed anche sentenze sulle emissioni dei gas di scarico delle automobili sono state una pesante mazzata sull’industria automotiva tedesca, che all’estero vive ragionevolmente bene, ma in patria stenta a sopravvivere.

Ma su tutto pesa l’incubo della presenza di Frau Merkel, fantasma di ciò che era in passato, incapace a trarre le conseguenze del suo operato. Capo di un governo ectoplasmatico, senza visione strategica alcuna, in attesa dei risultati che emergeranno dalle elezioni europee e da quelle che si terranno a breve in Brandenburg, Bremen, Sachsen e Thüringen, ove le proiezioni sono sfavorevoli.


Bloomberg. 2019-03-13. Germany’s Economy Has Already Lost About $38 Billion to One-Offs

Temporary factors cost the German economy about 34 billion euros ($38 billion) in the second half of 2018, when it tipped dangerously close to a recession.

A simulation by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy looked at the state of industry while stripping out the effects from one-offs that dented growth. Without those, the economy could have expanded by about 0.5 percentage point more in each of the final two quarters of last year.

What’s unclear is how much more will be added to that bill in the coming months, with some issues, particularly in the auto industry, lingering into 2019.

A change in car-industry regulations last summer, low water levels on the Rhine river, and a curious breakdown in pharmaceutical output were seen as among the culprits behind the industrial slump. Now, global uncertainties and capacity constraints might challenge a meaningful rebound, and the institute forecasts expansion of only 1 percent in 2019.

Economists from the Bundesbank to the European Central Bank have scratched their heads over the slowdown in Germany and the euro area as they try to gauge whether growth is entering a more protracted shift.

The spell of temporary factors might not be over. Earlier this week, Germany’s economy ministry said car-model changes and strikes at suppliers emerged as new challenges, after factory orders and output took an unexpected hit in January.

But there’s also been some good news. Water levels on the Rhine have risen again after last year’s issues hurt industries from steel makers to petrochemical companies.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Germania ripudia in toto il progetto europeo di Macron

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-03-11.

2019-03-12__Annegrete__

«No matter how charming the French are — in France,

it’s always and above all about French interests»


Il 4 marzo Mr Macron ha rilasciato un proclama a tutti i cittadini europei, in cui espone il suo progetto per l’Europa: lo riportiamo in extenso così come è stato pubblicato sul sito dell’Eliseo.


For European renewal.

Citizens of Europe,

If I am taking the liberty of addressing you directly, it is not only in the name of the history and values that unite us. It is because time is of the essence. In a few weeks’ time, the European elections will be decisive for the future of our continent.

Never, since the Second World War, has Europe been as essential. Yet never has Europe been in so much danger.

Brexit stands as the symbol of that. It symbolises the crisis of Europe, which has failed to respond to its peoples’ needs for protection from the major shocks of the modern world. It also symbolises the European trap. The trap is not being part of the European Union. The trap is in the lie and the irresponsibility that can destroy it. Who told the British people the truth about their post-Brexit future? Who spoke to them about losing access to the European market? Who mentioned the risks to peace in Ireland of restoring the former border? Nationalist retrenchment offers nothing; it is rejection without an alternative. And this trap threatens the whole of Europe: the anger mongers, backed by fake news, promise anything and everything.

We have to stand firm, proud and lucid, in the face of this manipulation and say first of all what Europe is. It is a historic success: the reconciliation of a devastated continent in an unprecedented project of peace, prosperity and freedom. We should never forget that. And this project continues to protect us today. What country can act on its own in the face of aggressive strategies by the major powers? Who can claim to be sovereign, on their own, in the face of the digital giants? How would we resist the crises of financial capitalism without the euro, which is a force for the entire European Union? Europe is also those thousands of projects daily that have changed the face of our regions: the school refurbished, the road built, and the long-awaited arrival of high-speed Internet access. This struggle is a daily commitment, because Europe, like peace, can never be taken for granted. I tirelessly pursue it in the name of France to take Europe forward and defend its model. We have shown that what we were told was unattainable, the creation of a European defence capability and the protection of social rights, was in fact possible.

Yet we need to do more and sooner, because there is the other trap: the trap of the status quo and resignation. Faced with the major crises in the world, citizens so often ask us, “Where is Europe? What is Europe doing?” It has become a soulless market in their eyes. Yet Europe is not just a market. It is a project. A market is useful, but it should not detract from the need for borders that protect and values that unite. The nationalists are misguided when they claim to defend our identity by withdrawing from Europe, because it is the European civilisation that unites, frees and protects us. But those who would change nothing are also misguided, because they deny the fears felt by our peoples, the doubts that undermine our democracies. We are at a pivotal moment for our continent, a moment when together we need to politically and culturally reinvent the shape of our civilisation in a changing world. It is the moment for European renewal. Hence, resisting the temptation of isolation and divisions, I propose we build this renewal together around three ambitions: freedom, protection and progress.

Defend our freedom

The European model is based on the freedom of man and the diversity of opinions and creation. Our first freedom is democratic freedom: the freedom to choose our leaders as foreign powers seek to influence our vote at each election. I propose creating a European Agency for the Protection of Democracies, which will provide each Member State with European experts to protect their election process against cyber attacks and manipulation. In this same spirit of independence, we should also ban the funding of European political parties by foreign powers. We should have European rules banish all incitements to hate and violence from the Internet, since respect for the individual is the bedrock of our civilisation of dignity.

Protect our continent

Founded on internal reconciliation, the European Union has forgotten to look at the realities of the world. Yet no community can create a sense of belonging if it does not have bounds that it protects. The boundary is freedom in security. We therefore need to rethink the Schengen area: all those who want to be part of it should comply with obligations of responsibility (stringent border controls) and solidarity (one asylum policy with the same acceptance and refusal rules). We will need a common border force and a European asylum office, strict control obligations and European solidarity to which each country will contribute under the authority of a European Council for Internal Security. On the issue of migration, I believe in a Europe that protects both its values and its borders.

The same standards should apply to defence. Substantial progress has been made in the last two years, but we need to set a clear course: a treaty on defence and security should define our fundamental obligations in association with NATO and our European allies: increased defence spending, a truly operational mutual defence clause, and the European Security Council with the United Kingdom on board to prepare our collective decisions.

Our borders also need to guarantee fair competition. What power in the world would accept continued trade with those who respect none of their rules? We cannot suffer in silence. We need to reform our competition policy and reshape our trade policy with penalties or a ban in Europe on businesses that compromise our strategic interests and fundamental values such as environmental standards, data protection and fair payment of taxes; and the adoption of European preference in strategic industries and our public procurement, as our American and Chinese competitors do.
Recover the spirit of progress

Europe is not a second-rank power. Europe in its entirety is a vanguard: it has always defined the standards of progress. In this, it needs to drive forward a project of convergence rather than competition: Europe, where social security was created, needs to introduce a social shield for all workers, east to west and north to south, guaranteeing the same pay in the same workplace, and a minimum European wage appropriate to each country and discussed collectively every year.

Getting back on track with progress also concerns spearheading the ecological cause. Will we be able to look our children in the eye if we do not also clear our climate debt? The European Union needs to set its target – zero carbon by 2050 and pesticides halved by 2025 – and adapt its policies accordingly with such measures as a European Climate Bank to finance the ecological transition, a European food safety force to improve our food controls and, to counter the lobby threat, independent scientific assessment of substances hazardous to the environment and health. This imperative needs to guide all our action: from the Central Bank to the European Commission, from the European budget to the Investment Plan for Europe, all our institutions need to have the climate as their mandate.

Progress and freedom are about being able to live from your work: Europe needs to look ahead to create jobs. This is why it needs not only to regulate the digital giants by putting in place European supervision of the major platforms (prompt penalties for unfair competition, transparent algorithms, etc.), but also to finance innovation by giving the new European Innovation Council a budget on a par with the United States in order to spearhead new technological breakthroughs such as artificial intelligence.

A world-oriented Europe needs to look towards Africa, with which we should enter into a covenant for the future, taking the same road and ambitiously and non-defensively supporting African development with such measures as investment, academic partnerships and education for girls.

Freedom, protection and progress. We need to build European renewal on these pillars. We cannot let nationalists without solutions exploit the people’s anger. We cannot sleepwalk through a diminished Europe. We cannot become ensconced in business as usual and wishful thinking. European humanism demands action. And everywhere, the people are standing up to be part of that change. So by the end of the year, let’s set up, with the representatives of the European institutions and the Member States, a Conference for Europe in order to propose all the changes our political project needs, with an open mind, even to amending the treaties. This conference will need to engage with citizens’ panels and hear academics, business and labour representatives, and religious and spiritual leaders. It will define a roadmap for the European Union that translates these key priorities into concrete actions. There will be disagreement, but is it better to have a static Europe or a Europe that advances, sometimes at different paces, and that is open to all?

In this Europe, the peoples will really take back control of their future. In this Europe, the United Kingdom, I am sure, will find its true place.

Citizens of Europe, the Brexit impasse is a lesson for us all. We need to escape this trap and make the upcoming elections and our project meaningful. It is for you to decide whether Europe and the values of progress that it embodies are to be more than just a passing episode in history. This is the choice I propose: to chart together the road to European renewal.

Emmanuel Macron

* * * * * * * * * * *

«Se prendo la libertà di rivolgermi direttamente a voi, non è solo in nome della storia e dei valori che ci riuniscono. È perché è urgente. Tra qualche settimana, le elezioni europee saranno decisive per il futuro del nostro continente. Mai dalla Seconda Guerra mondiale, l’Europa è stata così necessaria. Eppure, mai l’Europa è stata tanto in pericolo.»

*

«La Brexit ne è l’emblema. Emblema della crisi dell’Europa, che non ha saputo rispondere alle esigenze di protezione dei popoli di fronte alle grandi crisi del mondo contemporaneo»

*

«Il ripiego nazionalista non propone nulla; è un rifiuto senza progetto. E questa insidia minaccia tutta l’Europa: coloro che sfruttano la collera, sostenuti dalle false informazioni, promettono tutto e il contrario di tutto.»

*

«I nazionalisti sbagliano quando pretendono di difendere la nostra identità con il ritiro dall’Europa, perché è la civiltà europea che ci riunisce, ci libera e ci protegge»

*

«Ma anche coloro che non vorrebbero cambiare nulla sbagliano, perché negano le paure che attanagliano i nostri popoli, i dubbi che minano le nostre democrazie»

*

«Propongo che venga creata un’Agenzia europea di protezione delle democrazie che fornirà esperti europei ad ogni Stato membro per proteggere il proprio iter elettorale»

*

«Dobbiamo pertanto rivedere lo spazio Schengen: tutti coloro che vogliono parteciparvi devono rispettare obblighi di responsabilità (rigoroso controllo delle frontiere) e di solidarietà (una stessa politica di asilo, con le stesse regole di accoglienza e di rifiuto)»

*

«Dobbiamo riformare la nostra politica della concorrenza, rifondare la nostra politica commerciale: punire o proibire in Europa le aziende che ledono i nostri interessi strategici ed i nostri valori essenziali, come le norme ambientali, la protezione dei dati ed il giusto pagamento delle tasse; e assumere, nelle industrie strategiche e nei nostri appalti pubblici, una preferenza europea come fanno i nostri concorrenti americani o cinesi»

*

«L’Unione europea deve fissare la sua ambizione – 0 carbonio nel 2050, dimezzamento dei pesticidi nel 2025 – e adattare le sue politiche a questa esigenza: Banca europea per il clima per finanziare la transizione ecologica; forza sanitaria europea per rafforzare i controlli dei nostri alimenti; contro la minaccia delle lobby, valutazione scientifica indipendente delle sostanze pericolose per l’ambiente e la salute»

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Il documento di Mr Macron è ampio, sfaccettato, ma da leggersi bene dietro le righe. Magari, rileggerselo potrebbe essere utile.

In buona sostanza propone degli Stati Uniti di Europa a governo francese, essendo lui il Presidente con autorità sulla Ecb.

Gli diamo atto che non pretende il caffè a letto e nemmeno l’erezione di un tempo per adorarlo.

* * *

La risposta tedesca arriva a distanza di una settimana, forte e chiara.

«CDU’s Kramp-Karrenbauer says ‘nein’ to European centralism»

*

«The head of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party rejected “European centralism,” reining in French ambitions for joint action against debt and economic inequality»

*

«A European minimum wage, a unified social-security system and joint debt issuance are “the wrong track,”»

*

«Creating a “common market for banks” would be worthwhile»

*

«Our Europe must get stronger, but the answer can’t simply be to transfer powers away from the national and local levels»

*

«No matter how charming the French are — in France, it’s always and above all about French interests»

*

In sintesi estrema. Si è spezzato l’Asse frangermanico.


Bloomberg. 2019-03-10. Merkel Party Chief Sets Limits on Macron’s Ambitions for Europe

– CDU’s Kramp-Karrenbauer says ‘nein’ to European centralism

– A German response to French leader’s call for European renewal

*

The head of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party rejected “European centralism,” reining in French ambitions for joint action against debt and economic inequality.

A European minimum wage, a unified social-security system and joint debt issuance are “the wrong track,” Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, a Merkel protegee who leads the governing Christian Democratic Union, said in an op-ed for Welt am Sonntag. Creating a “common market for banks” would be worthwhile, she said.

The response from Berlin to French President Emmanuel Macron’s sweeping plans for strengthening the European Union is the latest sign that leaders of the EU’s two biggest powers differ in tone and substance on how to remedy the continent’s gloom. While seeking to stop the advance of anti-EU nationalists, Macron’s manifesto would create several new agencies.

“Our Europe must get stronger,” but the answer can’t simply be to transfer powers away from the national and local levels, the newspaper quoted Kramp-Karrenbauer as saying.

In proposals more aligned with Macron, she said Europe needs a unified database for tracking immigration, “an accord on gapless border protection” and a European pact for climate protection, which would be hashed out by companies, employees and the public.

Macron’s blueprint for “European renewal” is part of a push by political leaders to blunt the appeal of populist parties, who are seeking to turn European Parliament elections across the EU in May into a referendum on their nationalist visions for the continent.

Kramp-Karrenbauer has laid down markers before. Before CDU delegates elected her in December to succeed Merkel as party chairwoman, she courted German conservatives with a strident tone that departed from Merkel’s measured rhetoric.

“No matter how charming the French are — in France, it’s always and above all about French interests,” she said in November.


Bloomberg. 2019-03-10. Kudlow Tells EU to ‘Help Themselves’ and Not Rely on U.S. Growth

– Trump economic adviser advises fiscal, labor reforms in Europe

– Kudlow says U.S. is ‘only demand’ Europe has for goods sales

*

U.S. President Donald Trump’s top economic adviser offered sharp criticism of the European Central Bank’s revival of stimulus measures to spur the economy.

National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow said Friday during a Bloomberg Television interview that a ECB decision Thursday to extend a new round of cheap loans to the banking system wouldn’t be enough to fix the continent’s underlying problems.

ECB President Mario Draghi “is a very smart man. I’m not here to take his inventory,” Kudlow said.

“I’m just saying, another round of that version of QE — concessionary cheap loans to banks — that’s not the answer,” he said. “The answer is they’ve got to make labor and fiscal reforms throughout Europe, and most of those countries haven’t really done it, so their growth rates are uncomfortably close to zero.”

Kudlow’s criticisms were prompted by a question about whether the U.S. economy could withstand a global slowdown. He said he was confident it could, and claimed that American strength was the only thing keeping Europe afloat at the moment.

Recent data have painted a gloomy picture of the euro area’s state of economic affairs, raising concern that the 19-nation bloc would be flirting with recession before long. The ECB responded to sharp downward revisions to its 2019 projections for growth and inflation by announcing a fresh series of long-term bank funding and promising to keep interest at their current rock-bottom levels for longer.

The Trump administration is forecasting U.S. economic growth of about 3 percent this year, which Kudlow said is being delivered through tax cuts, de-regulation and new trade deals.

“If it weren’t for the U.S. — our consumers are buying their goods, our businesses are buying their capital goods, right, industrial goods. We’re the only demand they have,” Kudlow said. “We are trying to help them. But at some point they’ve got to take measures — you know, help comes to those who help themselves.”

On efforts by the U.S. and EU to negotiate a trade deal, Kudlow said the talks have been constructive and that the two sides are moving toward an “early harvest” agreement on LNG, soybeans and standards on pharmaceuticals, among other things.

“We’re moving in the right direction to show that the United States and the EU can in fact have a much better trade relationship,” he said.

Transatlantic trade talks have not officially started and no launch date has been set yet, EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom told Bloomberg on Thursday. The EU, which still needs a negotiating mandate, wants to narrow the scope of the talks to lowering tariffs on industrial goods and autos before opening it up to thornier issues, according to Malmstrom.

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has told Congress that he wouldn’t conclude an agreement without including agriculture, while the EU wants the politically sensitive issue kept out of talks.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Europarlamento. EPP. Raggiunto il quorum per scacciare Mr Orban.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-03-04.

Ungheria 001

Il Partito Popolare Europeo ha in questo parlamento 216 /  751 seggi: nelle proiezioni elettorali dovrebbe scendere a 176.

Al momento ha 14 / 28 membri nella Commissione Europea, 8 / 28 nel Consiglio Europeo, 125 / 344 nel Comitato delle Regioni, e 203 / 318 nell’Assemblea Parlamentare del Consiglio di Europa: è la grande potenza dell’Unione Europea.

Vi sono associati personaggi di spicco, da Mr Juncker a Mr Tusk, da Mr Katainen a Frau Merkel, da Mr Rajoy a Mr Orbán. Per non parlare di Mr Tajani e di Herr Oettinger.

Come dovrebbe essere facilmente intuibile. le posizioni politiche del Ppe sono variegate, ma sostanzialmente ascrivibili all’ideologia liberal socialista.

*

Al PPE appartiene anche il partito ungherese Fidesz, che in patria detiene 114 / 199 seggi parlamentari, mentre ne ha 11 nel PPE. Fidesz è il partito di Mr Orban.

Il Fidesz di Mr Orban sembrerebbe essere tutto tranne che liberal: è un partito identitario, sovranista, ha cacciato le ngo di Mr Soros, grande patrono e finanziatore del Ppe, ha promosso una riforma della giustizia che ha purgato i giudici liberal socialisti, non gradisce accogliere ulteriormente i migranti, intrattiene ottimi rapporti con la Russia di Mr Putin ed anche con la Lega di Mr Salvini.

Nel Ppe molte componenti lo odiano di odio raffinato, ed adesso vorrebbero cacciarlo. Mesi fa, solo la metà del ppe si era associata al voto di condanna dell’Ungheria.

Adesso la situazione sembrerebbe andare incontro ad una maturazione.

MEPs increasingly back kicking Viktor Orbán out of EPP

*

The EPP votes against Orbán [2018-09-13]

«The breakthrough in the European People’s Party (EPP), which enabled the vote in the European Parliament to launch Article 7 against Hungary, is much more important for the political situation of Viktor Orbán in Europe than the procedure itself. The EPP has not yet removed Fidesz from the coalition but has stopped protecting it.

On Wednesday, September 12, the European Parliament voted by a large majority to launch Article 7 of the EU Treaty against Hungary: 448 MEPs voted for it, 197 were against and 48 abstained. The allegations against the current authorities in Hungary concern systematic violations regarding the independence of judiciary, restrictions placed on the freedom of speech and the freedom of research, corruption and abuses against minority rights and the rights of migrants.»

*

Swedes Want to Kick Hungary’s Orban Out of EU Parliament Group

«Candidates for Sweden’s Moderate Party have called on the party of Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán to leave the European People’s Party (EPP) ahead of the European Parliament elections.

The Swedish Moderates, along with the “centre-right” Christian Democrats, are also members of the EPP, and according to Moderate candidate Tomas Tobé it is time for Orbán’s Fidesz to leave it, Metro reports.

“With regard to Hungary, it is clear that the government’s dismantling of the rule of law is contrary to the fundamental values of the EU,” Tobé alleged.»

*

Belgian, Luxembourg want Orban out of EU group

«The Christian Democrat parties from Belgium and Luxembourg want to kick Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban out of their European Union EPP umbrella group in a move that could impact European elections in May.

The Luxembourg and two Belgian member parties wrote to the presidency asking for Orban’s Fidesz to be excluded because the Hungarian leader “has been acting in striking contradiction” with EPP values.

Maxime Prevot, the leader of the Belgian francophone CdH said Friday that “the excesses of Orban were no longer admissible and can no longer be supported.”

Orban has launched a campaign against EPP member and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker for being far too lax when it comes to immigration and accusing him to open up the EU borders to unchecked migration.»

*

Merkel voices solidarity with Juncker, stops short of calling for Orban’s Fidesz to be thrown out of EPP [2019-02-21]

«The chancellor has backed the European Commission president in the face of aggressive attacks from Hungary. Still, she declined to call for removing Orban’s party from the conservative bloc in the European Parliament.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel waded into the escalating fight between Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker on Thursday when confronted by reporters in Berlin.

Merkel, who was hosting Burkina Faso’s President Roch Marc Kabore, told reporters, “Jean-Claude Juncker has my full solidarity, and we will also make that clear in discussions with Hungary.”

The chancellor, however, refused to answer another question, namely, whether Orban’s Fidesz party should be expelled from the majority center-right European Peoples’ Party (EPP) ahead of European parliamentary elections in late May.

Orban’s Fidesz and Merkel’s CDU/CSU alliance are both members of the EPP bloc; Juncker was its candidate for the Commission presidency in 2014’s European elections.

But Merkel’s successor as chair of the CDU, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, did threaten Fidesz on Thursday with halting bilateral cooperation between the two parties unless they could find common ground on the EPP’s broader aims»

* * * * * * * * * * *

Riassumendo.

Anche se Frau Merkel sembrerebbe non desiderarlo, Frau Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer caccerebbe via volentieri Mr Orban dal Ppe. Ma undici voti su 176 sarebbero utili, specie poi se si mirasse alla Presidenza della Commissione Europea.

Sono quindi scese in campo le componenti delle piccole nazioni.

«A total of at least seven national centre-right parties had by Friday (1 March) called for the expulsion or suspension of their fellow member, Hungary’s Fidesz – thereby passing the threshold for triggering an internal procedure to examine prime minister Viktor Orban’s ruling party’s place in Europe’s largest political alliance»

*

«Sweden’s Christian Democrats and the Moderate party have sent letters to the president of the European People’s Party (EPP), Frane’s Joseph Daul, calling for the expulsion of Orban’s Fidesz»

*

«On Friday, Petteri Orpo, the leader of Finland’s National Coalition Party (Kokoomus), also sent a letter to Daul saying the EPP should expel Fidesz»

*

«Earlier in the week three parties signed a letter to Daul asking for Fidesz’s expulsion: the Flemish Christian Democrats (CD&V), the Walloon Humanist Democratic Centre (cdH) and Luxembourg’s Christian Social People’s Party (CSV).

Portugal’s CDS-People’s Party, also said it wrote to Daul to expel or suspend Fidesz»

*

«The Dutch Christian Democrats (CDA) said on Thursday they supported an open discussion about Fidesz’s place, as “informal discussions with Fidesz no longer have the desired effect”, party chairman Rutger Ploum said in a statement»

*

«According to internal rules, at least seven parties from five member states have to initiate the procedure to expel or suspend a member party»

*

«The presidency however also includes supporters, or Fidesz-friendly figures, such as Fidesz MEP Kinga Gal, and European Parliament president Antonio Tajani – whose Forza Italia party is a strong ally of Orban’s, despite the latter’s recent openings to the rival Matteo Salvini of the League»

*

«Depending on what is asked by the parties and decided by the presidency, there could be further discussions at the next assembly meeting on 9 April – or parties could push for a vote»

* * * * * * * * * * *

Ma tutti i salmi finiscono in gloria.

«The EPP’s lead candidate for the EU commission presidency, and EPP group leader in the parliament, Germany’s Manfred Weber, told German weekly Der Spiegel on Friday that “all options are on the table”.

“We are currently discussing this within the EPP,” he said, adding: “Viktor Orban has badly damaged the EPP with his comments and poster campaign, so I expect him to apologise and stop these actions”.»

Ppe e tedeschi hanno fatto i conti sul pallottoliere esi sono accorti che per fare eleggere Mr Weber a Presidente della Commissione servono anche i voti del Fidesz.

Sono tutte persone tutte di un pezzo, ma alla fine Parigi val bene una Messa.

Nota.

Il 23 – 26 maggio si terranno le elezioni europee.

Nessuno ha la certezza che i firmatari di questa mozione possano essere rieletti, né alcuno potrebbe predire se alla fine Herr Weber diventerà il prossimo Presidente della Commissione Europea.


EU Observer. 2019-03-02. EPP hit threshold to trigger Orban expulsion probe

A total of at least seven national centre-right parties had by Friday (1 March) called for the expulsion or suspension of their fellow member, Hungary’s Fidesz – thereby passing the threshold for triggering an internal procedure to examine prime minister Viktor Orban’s ruling party’s place in Europe’s largest political alliance.

Sweden’s Christian Democrats and the Moderate party have sent letters to the president of the European People’s Party (EPP), Frane’s Joseph Daul, calling for the expulsion of Orban’s Fidesz.

“The EPP family cannot include members that do not fully respect the fundamental principles of a liberal democracy,” Peter Kullgren, the secretary general of the Christian Democrats said in a letter addressed to Daul, dated 27 February, and seen by EUobserver.

On Friday, Petteri Orpo, the leader of Finland’s National Coalition Party (Kokoomus), also sent a letter to Daul saying the EPP should expel Fidesz.

“Fidesz has gone too far. There are reasonable, serious grounds to conclude that Fidesz is in breach of EPP values and principles,” Orpo said in a statement.

Orpo in his letter referred to an EPP resolution on protecting EU values adopted last November in Helsinki, which he said Fidesz breached.

“It [Fidesz] has crossed red lines and it has not kept the commitments that have been jointly agreed,” Finland’s finance minister wrote in the letter.

Earlier in the week three parties signed a letter to Daul asking for Fidesz’s expulsion: the Flemish Christian Democrats (CD&V), the Walloon Humanist Democratic Centre (cdH) and Luxembourg’s Christian Social People’s Party (CSV).

Portugal’s CDS-People’s Party, also said it wrote to Daul to expel or suspend Fidesz.

The Dutch Christian Democrats (CDA) said on Thursday they supported an open discussion about Fidesz’s place, as “informal discussions with Fidesz no longer have the desired effect”, party chairman Rutger Ploum said in a statement.

Options on the table

According to internal rules, at least seven parties from five member states have to initiate the procedure to expel or suspend a member party.

This wave of letters was promoted by the latest campaign by Hungary’s Fidesz-led government accusing the EU of pushing migration plans that threaten the security of Hungary.

While the EPP has been riven by the increasingly-authoritarian Orban and his Fidesz for several years, the last straw seems to have been that the latest campaign which attacks EU Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker (a fellow EPP member) personally, and also spreads disinformation about EU policies.

Once all the letters Daul expects are received, the French leader of the EPP will reach out to the presidency of the party to decide on whether to put the issue on the agenda of the meeting of the party’s political assembly on 20 March.

The EPP presidency includes Juncker, EU Council president Donald Tusk (an Orban critic), commissioner Marianne Thyssen, who hails from the Flemish party calling for the expulsion, and commission vice-president Jyrki Katainen, whose Finnish party has also called for Fidesz to be kicked out.

The presidency however also includes supporters, or Fidesz-friendly figures, such as Fidesz MEP Kinga Gal, and European Parliament president Antonio Tajani – whose Forza Italia party is a strong ally of Orban’s, despite the latter’s recent openings to the rival Matteo Salvini of the League.

Depending on what is asked by the parties and decided by the presidency, there could be further discussions at the next assembly meeting on 9 April – or parties could push for a vote.

The EPP’s lead candidate for the EU commission presidency, and EPP group leader in the parliament, Germany’s Manfred Weber, told German weekly Der Spiegel on Friday that “all options are on the table”.

“We are currently discussing this within the EPP,” he said, adding: “Viktor Orban has badly damaged the EPP with his comments and poster campaign, so I expect him to apologise and stop these actions”.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Populisti lebbrosi, benedite Frau Merkel. Ost-Cdu la dichiara ‘persona non grata’.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-02-20.

Merkel 999

Sinceramente, non siamo affatto di accordo con coloro che riversano su Frau Merkel ogni sorta di maledizione ed improperio.

Si dovrebbe sempre, a nostro sommesso parere, distinguere cosa sia Frau Merkel in sé e per se, dagli effetti che sono scaturiti dalla sua presenza e dal suo comportamento.

Se di per sé Frau Merkel soddisfa pienamente tutte le caratteristiche della persona posseduta dal demonio, basterebbe solo pensare alla sua ostinazione nell’odio rancoroso e la sua brama di potere, d’altro canto per l’eterogenesi dei fini le si deve riconoscere l’indubbio merito di aver scatenato la devoluzione dell’ideologia liberal socialista e di stare portando la Germania e l’Unione Europea allo sfacelo.

Senza Frau Merkel non avrebbero potuto nascere, crescere e prosperare in Europa i movimenti identitari e sovranisti, ossia proprio quei movimenti che stanno sconvolgendo il quadro politico continentale e per incrinare alla base lo strapotere di Bruxelles sul Popolo sovrano.

Se al posto di Frau Merkel, e del suo degno sodale Mr Macron, vi fossero stati statisti di razza l’Europa mai avrebbe avuto la possibilità di scuotersi dal loro giogo. Un personaggio del livello di Lenin avrebbe costituito la repubblica socialista europea senza colpo ferire.

Si ringrazi quindi la Divina Provvidenza che ha mandato un personaggio del genere. Certo, se ne sarebbe stato fatto volentieri a meno, ma la libertà ce la si conquista con sangue e sudore.

*

Ciliegina sulla torta è stata la pensata di non concorrere per la presidenza del partito pur continuando a mantenere la carica di cancelliera.

Se sicuramente così facendo Frau Merkel ha soddisfatto il proprio superego ipertrofico, altrettanto sicuramente ha prolungato lo stato paludoso della situazione politica tedesca, ha demolito quello che una volta era stato il potentissimo asse francogermanico, ed ha nel contempo privato l’Unione Europea di quella che era stato un punto di riferimento.

Meglio di così, nessun identitario sovranista avrebbe potuto desiderare.

* * * * * * *

Adesso l’ultima.

I dirigenti della Cdu dei Landers dell’est tedesco hanno dichiarato Frau Merkel persona non grata.

Ost-CDU erklärt Merkel zur Persona non grata!

Il termine persona non grata è stato ufficializzato dalla Convenzione di Vienna per indicare un diplomatico cui si richiede di lascare immediatamente il paese ove era accreditato.

Germania. Questo anno si voterà in quattro Länder. Un test

«La CDU dei Länder dell’Est dichiara la Merkel una persona non grata!»

*

«In vista delle elezioni federali in autunno, i politici della CDU della Germania dell’Est hanno avanzato una richiesta molto grande: la cancelliera per l’immigrazione di massa Angela Merkel (CDU) dovrebbe starsene il più lontano possibile.»

*

«I principali rappresentanti delle associazioni della CDU della Germania dell’Est rifiutano di fare la campagna elettorale della cancelliera Angela Merkel (CDU) prima delle elezioni statali in autunno»

*

«Una campagna elettorale della Cancelliera non ci aiuterà in Sassonia”, ha detto Matthias Rößler, presidente del parlamento di stato della Sassonia»

*

«Herr Michael Heym, vice leader del gruppo parlamentare della CDU in Turingia, ha detto che le possibili apparizioni della campagna elettorale della Merkel sarebbero “certamente ancora oggetto di discussione all’interno della CDU della Turingia”. Poi ha aggiunto una frase che non potrebbe essere più biliosa: “Probabilmente non avrebbe alcun valore aggiunto per noi”. ….»

* * * * * * *

Bene.

Benissimo.

Se in una campagna elettorale sono gli stessi dignitari di partito a non volere la presenza di Frau Merkel in campagna elettorale, sembrerebbe essere segno di una ragionevole esecrabilità della medesima presso l’Elettorato.

Gli identitari sovranisti ringraziano.

Lunga vita a Frau Merkel!


Deutschland Kurier. 2019-02-19. Ost-CDU erklärt Merkel zur Persona non grata!

Mit Blick auf die Landtagswahlen im Herbst haben ostdeutsche CDU-Politiker eine ganz große Bitte: Die Masseneinwanderungskanzlerin Angela Merkel (CDU) möge sich möglichst fernhalten.

*

Führende Vertreter der ostdeutschen CDU-Verbände lehnen Wahlkampfauftritte von Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel (CDU) vor den Landtagswahlen im Herbst ab. »Ein Wahlkampfauftritt der Bundeskanzlerin wird uns in Sachsen nicht helfen«, sagte der sächsische Landtagspräsident Matthias Rößler dem ›Spiegel‹.

Der thüringische CDU-Fraktionsvize Michael Heym sagte voraus: Über mögliche Wahlkampfauftritte Merkels werde es »sicher noch Diskussionen in der Thüringer CDU geben«. Dann ein Satz, wie er galliger nicht sein könnte: »Einen Mehrwert für uns hätte es wahrscheinlich nicht.« ….

Ministerpräsident Michael Kretschmer (CDU) muss sich demnach in seinem Wahlkreis Görlitz II auf ein hartes Kopf-an-Kopf-Rennen einstellen: Laut der Prognose führt er noch vor dem AfD-Kandidaten, allerdings nur hauchdünn mit einem Prozentpunkt. ….

Um Pfeifkonzerte zu verhindern, denkt die CDU Brandenburg laut ›Spiegel‹, wenn überhaupt, an »niedrigschwellige Formate« mit Merkel ohne große Ankündigung. »Marktplatz-Veranstaltungen wird es nicht geben«, sagte auch der Thüringer CDU-Chef Mike Mohring. »Das wird alles in geschlossenen Räumen stattfinden.« ….»


Der Freitag. 2019-02-19. Persona non grata: Angela Merkel

Offener Brief Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel steht maßgeblich für eine rigide Austeritätspolitik. Auch betreffs Europa. Europäer, die darunter zu leiden haben, empören sich.

*

Jenes Deutschland, in welchen 68 Prozent der Deutschen Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel hohe Beliebtheitswerte bescheinigen. Ob das Angela Merkel auch nur im Geringsten anhebt, ist fraglich. Bei Helmut Kohl hat das einstige Mädchen gelernt wie man Kritik aussitzt. Und die ersten auf Deutschland spritzende Steinchen können von einem imaginären Stahlhelm auf Merkels Kopf abgehalten werden. Vorerst noch jedenfalls.»

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Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti, Trump, Unione Europea

Trump & Macron. Eutanasia dei buoni rapporti diplomatici.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-02-18.

Trump e Macron 001

Una consolidata regola diplomatica impone di mandare un telegramma di augurio ad un nuovo eletto entro il giorno stesso della elezione. Nel caso di Mr Trump, Francia e Germania provvidero ben oltre dopo una settimana. Questo fu uno sgarro del quale ben difficilmente ci si potrebbe dimenticare.

Francia e Germania avevano fatto attive campagne elettorali a favore di Mrs Hillay Clinton. Nulla da eccepire, tranne il fatto che una potenza straniera mai dovrebbe ingerirsi negli affari interni di un’altra potenza.

Mr Macron e Frau Merkel furono tra gli ultimi ad essere ricevuti alla White House, e non per invito, ma a loro richiesta.  Mr Trump concesse a Mr Macron un’accoglienza trionfale durata svariati giorni, mentre Frau Merkel fu ricevuta prima da un addetto di quarta categoria, e poi poté vedere per 17 minuti il presidente Trump.

Questo linguaggio diplomatico è molto chiaro.

Ci si domanda quindi come si sia potuto deteriorare un rapporto Trump – Macron che, apparentemente, era iniziato abbastanza bene.

* * * * * * *

«After 18 months of frustrating efforts to sustain a partnership with America’s president, the “special relationship” is over.»

*

«On a damp Tuesday evening in December, most of France was focused on the Yellow-Vest crisis that had seen demonstrators smashing up Paris. But holed up in his Elysee palace, President Emmanuel Macron and his team were dealing with a greater threat to the status quo not just in France, but across the western world.»

*

«Donald Trump was about to announce the pullout of U.S. troops from Syria …. Such a decision would be a body-blow to U.S. allies in the European Union»

*

«EU leaders can no longer rely on the U.S. to help underpin European security»

*

«On the call that night in December, the 41-year-old president reminded Trump of his pledge to stand alongside his allies in the fight against terrorism and urged him to consider his responsibilities to Europe. Less than 24 hours later, Trump announced the withdrawal in a tweet.»

*

«“Both of us are probably mavericks,” Macron said in April during a state visit to Washington. “We have a very special relationship.”»

*

«Call logs from both presidents’ offices, which can sometimes be incomplete, indicate the two men held at least 19 phone calls last year. Trump spoke to Merkel just three times»

*

«By the time Trump returned to France to commemorate the centenary of the end of World War I, any pretense at a rapport was gone.»

*

«Macron lectured Trump in front of dozens of world leaders, saying nations that put their own interests first had lost their moral compass. Trump responded by mocking France for its military defeats to Germany.»

*

«Behind the scenes, French aides insisted Macron’s attacks on nationalism were not directed at Trump. But they also signaled that the French leader was deliberately taking a more assertive posture in diplomatic relations»

*

«Trump though has frequently shown tepid support for the alliance, complaining that U.S. allies don’t spend enough on defense and raising questions about Article V. An actual U.S. withdrawal would mean a tectonic shift in the global order and hand Putin the biggest victory of his career.»

*

«allies should consider buying American missiles.»

*

«The two men aren’t due to meet again until the G-20 summit in Japan in June. Then Macron himself will host the G-7 leaders in France in August.»

*

«Macron’s team …. are leaning toward not even attempting a joint statement at the end of the meeting»

* * * * * * * *

Per cercare di comprendere la dinamica del sistema, sarebbe necessario razionalizzare alcuni concetti che, essendo semplici, suscitano una quasi naturale repulsa: tutto qua?

«Da oggi ci liberiamo dal socialismo e dal politicamente corretto»

Questa frase detta da Mr Jair Bolsonaro, Presidente del Brasile di fresca elezione, sintetizza ciò che Mr Trump vuole e sta facendo negli Stati Uniti e nel mondo.

È un outsider, Macron lo ha definito un ‘maverick’: nei fatti non è espressione propria dei repubblicani, molti dei quali abituati da lunga pezza a trovare in loggia accordi con i democratici, per poi spartirsi i ruoli sul palcoscenico, recitando però lo stesso copione.

Obiettivo primario, strategico, di Mr Trump è l’annientamento dei liberal democratici negli Stati Uniti e dei loro alleati all’interno dell’Occidente. Lo scacchiere estero è giocato tutto in funzione del conseguimento dell’obiettivo primario.

Compreso questo banale concetto, Mr Trump si rivela essere facilmente capibile e prevedibile.

In patria sta sistematicamente tagliando tutte le fonti di finanziamento dei liberal, nonché delle enclavi di posti politicamente donati tramite sussidi statali. Sta bonificando il parastato americano, giustizia compresa. Li sta semplicemente strozzando economicamente. Un caso eclamptico, il suo comportamento nei confronti del ‘clima’ e dell’Epa.

All’estero, la Francia di Mr Macron e la Germania di Frau Merkel sono le realtà da ridimensionare.

Del tutto sequenziale la attuale posizione americana nei confronti di Polonia, Ungheria ed Italia.

Del tutto logico il suo appoggio ai Gilets Jaunes che hanno imbottigliato Mr Macron in un vicolo cieco, così come il suo comportamento nei confronti della residua industria tedesca: senza produzione industriale la Germania è kaptt, così come sarebbe finita senza l’approvvigionamento del gas russo.

Mr Trump sa che il tempo lavora per lui: ancora una decina di anni e la Germania inizierà a spopolarsi della sua popolazione autoctona, e saranno forti dolori. Tollera ancora Frau Merkel solo perché è l’unica persona al momento in grado di distruggere la Germania.

Infine, Mr Trump sa benissimo come gli europei siano impantanati in un welfare non più a lungo sostenibile, Ma sa anche benissimo come senza forze armate sia impossibile concepire ed attuare una politica estera.

Se Mr Macron si fosse dichiarato suddito leale lo avrebbe anche sopportato: ma dal momento che si è dimostrato superbo lo annienta.

Mr Macron si era semplicemente illuso di poter trattare Mr Trump in via paritetica.

«Tu regere imperio populos, Romane, memento:

hae tibi erunt artes, pacisque imponere morem,

parcere subiectis et debellare superbos.»

[Virgilio, Eneide, VI, 850 – 853]

macron 008


Bloomberg. 2019-02-13. The Moment Macron Gave Up on Trump

After 18 months of frustrating efforts to sustain a partnership with America’s president, the “special relationship” is over.

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On a damp Tuesday evening in December, most of France was focused on the Yellow-Vest crisis that had seen demonstrators smashing up Paris. 

But holed up in his Elysee palace, President Emmanuel Macron and his team were dealing with a greater threat to the status quo not just in France, but across the western world. A White House contact had warned Macron that Donald Trump was about to announce the pullout of U.S. troops from Syria.

Such a decision would be a body-blow to U.S. allies in the European Union. It risked releasing hundreds of Islamic State veterans and giving Russia’s Vladimir Putin influence over the flow of refugees which has fueled a populist backlash in the EU.  For Macron, it heightened his concerns that the U.S. might back away from another, more sacred commitment: the NATO defense alliance.

As Macron prepared for a call with the White House that evening, his view on Syria was informed by a broader realization after 18 months of frustrating efforts to woo Trump: EU leaders can no longer rely on the U.S. to help underpin European security.

This account of how Macron was forced to rethink his entire relationship with Trump is based on conversations over several months with three people who have detailed knowledge of the president’s thinking.

On the call that night in December, the 41-year-old president reminded Trump of his pledge to stand alongside his allies in the fight against terrorism and urged him to consider his responsibilities to Europe. Less than 24 hours later, Trump announced the withdrawal in a tweet.

The decision came as a shock even in Washington, and triggered the resignation of Defense Secretary Jim Mattis. For Macron and his inner circle, it was a watershed moment.

Though in public, Macron still maintains that the historical alliance between France and the U.S. runs too deep to be jeopardized by disagreements between two presidents, something in him snapped.

The previous month Trump had offered Macron assurances both on Syria and on NATO during a visit to Paris. A few weeks later, the Syria commitment was history. From now on, the French leader will assume that Trump is liable to ditch any commitment he might have made if he decides it serves his interests.

The French leader had invested significant amounts of time and political capital in trying to establish a relationship with Trump since coming to power in Paris in May 2017. 

Early last year, people close to him were keen to play up the symmetry between the two presidents. They argued that both were political outsiders who’d shaken up the establishment with their election victories, and their straight-talking style made them a good match personally.

They shared macho handshake games and private talks, watched military parades and had dinner at the Eiffel Tower with a special, meat-heavy menu, to appeal to the U.S. leader’s taste. 

“Both of us are probably mavericks,” Macron said in April during a state visit to Washington. “We have a very special relationship.”

That effort succeeded in making Macron the guy you call when you want to speak to Europe. 

Call logs from both presidents’ offices, which can sometimes be incomplete, indicate the two men held at least 19 phone calls last year. Trump spoke to Merkel just three times and dished out public humiliations to Britain’s Theresa May—in July he trashed her Brexit plans—making it clear where she stood in the White House spheres of influence.

But Trump’s America First policy was always likely to become a problem and that became clear as Europe was drawn into the U.S. trade offensive. Macron’s lobbying effort during his April trip to the White House failed to avert tariffs on European steel and aluminum. Just as he failed to keep the U.S. in the Iran nuclear deal or the Paris Climate Accord.

The phone records suggest that the relationship started to cool after that visit, with their recorded conversations becoming less frequent. Before that they spoke as many as six times a month. Since then the contact has dwindled.

By the time Trump returned to France to commemorate the centenary of the end of World War I, any pretense at a rapport was gone. 

Macron lectured Trump in front of dozens of world leaders, saying nations that put their own interests first had lost their moral compass. Trump responded by mocking France for its military defeats to Germany. 

Behind the scenes, French aides insisted Macron’s attacks on nationalism were not directed at Trump. But they also signaled that the French leader was deliberately taking a more assertive posture in diplomatic relations.

Talking to people close to the president around the turn of the year, their confidence in his ability to do business with Trump has evaporated. One described the Elysee’s attitude to Trump as “clear-eyed.” Asked about reports in January that Trump had considered pulling out of NATO officially, the person said nothing the U.S. could do now would surprise the French leader. 

Macron’s approach to Trump at this point is more about managing the U.S. president’s impulsiveness rather than genuine engagement. His advisers plot their response to different scenarios, they seek intel on his state of mind and his personal agenda, and try to work out how that might affect the post-war alliance with Europe. 

But the Syria withdrawal still stung.

“An ally must be reliable, and coordinate with other allies,” Macron said from a military base in Mali, where French troops are involved in anti-terrorism operations. Macron said he “very deeply regretted” Trump’s decision.

After the December announcement, Macron kept up the pressure on Trump for a time with several subsequent calls, trying to persuade the U.S. leader to change his mind, or at least allow an orderly withdrawal.

He urged Trump to stay on the battle field. He told him the U.S. army was the backbone of the coalition forces and warned of the message it would send to Iran and Syria’s Bashar al Assad if he left with the job half done. It made little difference.  

The final U.S. pullout may still be some weeks away as U.S.-backed Syrian forces launch an offensive against Islamic State in the east of the country. Macron hasn’t spoken to Trump for over a month. 

Macron’s discussions about French security strategy are now framed by question marks over all joint French-U.S. operations. The two countries are currently fighting together against Islamists in Africa and the Middle East and combating piracy in the Indian Ocean. France is also supporting U.S. efforts to contain China’s expansionary instincts in the South China Sea. 

America’s commitment to NATO, though, is the elephant in the room. Under Article V of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s founding text of 1949, all are obliged to come to the defense of any members that come under attack. 

That was the foundation of the western bulwark against the Soviet bloc during the Cold War and has served to deter Russian efforts to extend its influence in eastern Europe since then. 

Trump though has frequently shown tepid support for the alliance, complaining that U.S. allies don’t spend enough on defense and raising questions about Article V.

An actual U.S. withdrawal would mean a tectonic shift in the global order and hand Putin the biggest victory of his career. 

More recently, however, Trump has switched from criticism to claiming credit for getting European allies to bolster their defense spending. At the armistice commemoration in Paris in November, the U.S. leader told Macron he was committed to NATO. On Jan. 17 Trump said he was backing NATO “100 percent” and then added a rider: allies should consider buying American missiles.

But doubts remain. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo put international organizations on notice that they shouldn’t take U.S. support for granted during a December speech in Brussels, where NATO has its headquarters. Organizations such as the EU and the United Nations, Pompeo said, “must be reformed or eliminated.”

For Macron, the doubts are enough to shift his outlook: a security guarantee you can’t depend on is no longer a guarantee. 

“Trump’s attitude and statements affect the credibility of NATO as a deterrent and a defense instrument,” said Bruno Tertrais, deputy director of the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris. “The question is whether this is a transitory crisis for the European-U.S. post-war alliance, or something deeper.”

The two men aren’t due to meet again until the G-20 summit in Japan in June. Then Macron himself will host the G-7 leaders in France in August. 

Welcoming the G-7 to the Atlantic resort of Biarritz will give the French some control of the choreography. Macron’s team has observed the drama Trump caused at recent international gatherings in Canada and Argentina and they are leaning toward not even attempting a joint statement at the end of the meeting. 

Such a departure from protocol offers a bleak view of the state of relations between the U.S. and its allies. But it’s one less opportunity for Trump to cause trouble.