Pubblicato in: Geopolitica Mondiale, Medio Oriente, Russia, Stati Uniti, Trump

Putin il Grande. Bloomberg lo incorona Master of the Middle East.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-10-06.

Putin 1000

Intelligenti si nasce, non si diventa.

Ma la scuola del Kgb forma politici allo stato dell’arte.


Il politico è quell’uomo che sa conglutinare persone con idee e credenze differenti, che sa raccogliere consensi, che sa percepire cosa esattamente siano e vogliano i suoi interlocutori, è uomo che sa formare accordi: non compromessi, bensì accordi soddisfacenti per tutte le controparti.

Se però lo statista è sicuramente un uomo politico, altrettanto sicuramente è persona capace di orientare e guidare verso soluzioni convergenti ai suoi propri interessi. Lo statista pur stando attentamente a sentire, riesce a convincere tutti gli altri a perseguire con gioia i suoi propri interessi. Lo statista si erge di fronte la storia e la modula secondo i propri desiderata.

Sulla scena mondiale vi sono molti capi di stato, ben pochi politici, ed un solo statista: Mr Putin.

Bloomberg alla fine riconosce il Presidente Putin quale ‘Master of the Middle East’.

Ma siamo solo agli inizi.

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«The Israelis and Turks, the Egyptians and Jordanians — they’re all beating a path to the Kremlin in the hope that Vladimir Putin, the new master of the Middle East, can secure their interests and fix their problems»

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«The latest in line is Saudi King Salman, who this week is due to become the first monarch of the oil-rich kingdom to visit Moscow»

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«It changed the reality, the balance of power on the ground»

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«Putin has succeeded in making Russia a factor in the Middle East. That’s why you see a constant stream of Middle Eastern visitors going to Moscow»

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«Moscow was a major power in the Middle East during the Cold War»

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«The tables began to turn in 2013, when the U.S. under Obama decided not to attack Assad. Two years later, Putin sent troops and planes to defend him»

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«Meanwhile the Saudis, who had financed rebels fighting against Assad, are cooperating with Russia in coaxing the opposition to unite for peace talks – which will likely cement the Syrian leader in power»

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«Russia also rejected a U.S. demand to make the Euphrates river a dividing line between Syrian government troops and U.S.-supported forces in eastern Syria»

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«Washington remains the indispensable power in the region …. The Kremlin is on everyone’s mind»

* * * * * * *

Andiamo al sodo e dimentichiamoci la propaganda liberal.

Mr Putin ha ottenuto in Medio Oriente una grande vittoria strategica. Potranno esserci altri alti e bassi, ma oramai non si può agire in Medio Oriente senza il suo consenso. E questo vale anche per gli americani.

Questi ultimi stanno pagando e ben salato il conto dell’idealismo dei liberal e della dabbenaggine politica di Mr Obama.

L’America paga a caro prezzo l’essersi consentita il lusso di avere i liberal democratici, con le loro ideologie utopiche e questa delirante sindrome del perdente mai rassegnato. Intaccare la figura carismatica del Presidente americano, in questo caso Mr Trump, significa aver intaccato il più potente motore del potere americano.

Ma ci si metta l’animo in pace. Questa è la realtà dei fatti.

Finita la partita per il Medio Oriente, Mr Putin sta iniziando quella per l’Europa.

Diamo tempo al tempo, ed a Bruxelles dovranno ripassarsi il russo.


→ Bloomberg. 2017-10-03. Putin Is Now Mr. Middle East, a Job No One Ever Succeeds At

– Saudi king’s first visit brings another Mideasterner to Moscow

– Russia a ‘nimble boxer’ vs musclebound U.S., diplomat says

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The Israelis and Turks, the Egyptians and Jordanians — they’re all beating a path to the Kremlin in the hope that Vladimir Putin, the new master of the Middle East, can secure their interests and fix their problems.

The latest in line is Saudi King Salman, who this week is due to become the first monarch of the oil-rich kingdom to visit Moscow. At the top of his agenda will be reining in Iran, a close Russian ally seen as a deadly foe by most Gulf Arab states.

Until very recently, Washington stood alone as the go-to destination for such leaders. Right now, American power in the region is perceptibly in retreat — testimony to the success of Russia’s military intervention in Syria, which shored up President Bashar al-Assad after years of U.S. insistence that he must go.

“It changed the reality, the balance of power on the ground,” said Dennis Ross, who was America’s chief Mideast peace negotiator and advised several presidents from George H. W. Bush to Barack Obama. “Putin has succeeded in making Russia a factor in the Middle East. That’s why you see a constant stream of Middle Eastern visitors going to Moscow.”

Success brings its own problems. As conflicting demands pile up, it’s not easy to send all those visitors home satisfied. “The more you try to adopt a position of dealing with all sides, the more you find that it’s hard to play that game,’’ Ross said.

Moscow was a major power in the Middle East during the Cold War, arming Arab states against Israel. Its influence collapsed along with communism. When the U.S. invaded Iraq to topple Saddam Hussein, Russia was a bystander, unable to do more than protest.

The tables began to turn in 2013, when the U.S. under Obama decided not to attack Assad. Two years later, Putin sent troops and planes to defend him.

Getting Results

For the most part, America’s local allies were firmly in the Assad-must-go camp. They were disillusioned when U.S. military might wasn’t deployed to force him out.

Russia’s clout in the region has grown “because Obama allowed it to,’’ said Khaled Batarfi, a professor at Alfaisal University’s branch in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. “Unfortunately he withdrew to a great extent from the Middle East.’’

That view is widespread. It was bluntly expressed last month by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who spent years urging American action against Assad. Talks with the U.S. “couldn’t get any results,’’ he said.

Turkey has now joined Russia and Iran in a plan to de-escalate the conflict. It’s “achieving a result,’’ Erdogan said. Two years ago, tensions between Putin and Erdogan had threatened to boil over, after the Turkish military shot down a Russian jet on the Syrian border. Last Friday, the Russian president flew to Ankara for dinner with his Turkish counterpart and “friend,’’ who’s agreed to buy Russian S-400 air defense missile systems, riling fellow NATO members.

‘Here’s the King’

Meanwhile the Saudis, who had financed rebels fighting against Assad, are cooperating with Russia in coaxing the opposition to unite for peace talks – which will likely cement the Syrian leader in power.

America’s Middle East allies mostly welcomed the change of U.S. president, and Donald Trump’s tough talk about challenging Iran. So far, though, he’s stuck close to his predecessor’s policy in Syria, concentrating on fighting Islamic State not Assad.

So, as the goal of regime-change in Syria recedes, priorities have shifted. The Saudis and other Arab Gulf powers are urging Russia to reduce Iran’s role in Syria, where Hezbollah and other Shiite militias supported by Tehran have provided shock troops for Assad’s offensive.

“Russia is better off not to be on one side of it. That’s the key message,’’ said Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a U.A.E.-based political analyst. “Here is the king, representing Arab Gulf countries, representing a lot of geopolitical weight, coming to Russia. And Russia has to take that into consideration.’’

But Putin won’t shift his stance on Iran to accommodate Saudi wishes, according to a person close to the Kremlin.

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has visited Russia four times in the past 18 months, has also found it hard to sway the Russian leader.

In August, Netanyahu told Putin that Iran’s growing foothold in Syria is “unacceptable.’’ In September he told CNN that the Iranians are trying to “colonize’’ Syria with the aim of “destroying us and conquering the Middle East.’’

Russia, though, refused his demand for a buffer zone inside Syria that would keep the forces of Iran and Hezbollah at least 60 kilometers (37 miles) from the Israeli border, a person familiar with the matter in Moscow said. Instead, Russia offered a 5-kilometer exclusion zone, the person said.

Russia also rejected a U.S. demand to make the Euphrates river a dividing line between Syrian government troops and U.S.-supported forces in eastern Syria. This has led to a race to capture territory from retreating Islamic State fighters in a strategic and oil-rich border region.

Yet Russia has succeeded in keeping open channels of communication to all sides, from Iran to Saudi Arabia and the Palestinian radical Islamist group Hamas to Israel, said Ayham Kamel, Middle East and North Africa director at Eurasia Group.

While Russia didn’t give way on the buffer zone, it has a tacit understanding that permits Israel to carry out airstrikes against Hezbollah in Syria, said Andrey Kortunov, director general of the Russian International Affairs Council, a research group set up by the Kremlin.

It’s been mediating, along with Egypt, to end the decade-old inter-Palestinian rift between Fatah in the West Bank and Hamas in Gaza. Putin invited rival Libyan factions to Moscow, after a series of peace efforts by other countries came to nothing. Russia has become a leading investor in oil-rich Iraqi Kurdistan, and was one of the few world powers to refrain from condemning its recent vote on independence.

In economic terms, the contest for influence looks like an unequal one – America’s GDP is 13 times Russia’s. That’s not always the decisive factor, said Alexander Zotov, Moscow’s ambassador to Syria from 1989 to 1994.

“Sometimes you have two boxers coming out to the ring, one is huge with bulging muscles and the other is smaller but nimble, and has a better technique,’’ he said.

Russia’s rise came as U.S. policy makers grew preoccupied with Asia, and the American public tired of Middle East wars – something both Obama and Trump acknowledged.

“Washington remains the indispensable power in the region,’’ said Eurasia’s Kamel. But its commitment to traditional alliances is weakening, he said, and that’s encouraged regional leaders to hedge their bets. “The Kremlin is on everyone’s mind.’’

Pubblicato in: Geopolitica Mondiale, Medio Oriente, Russia

Libia. Russia. È un problema politico mondiale, non di Mr Macron.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-08-16.

Putin 1002

Il problema della Libia è politico: cercare di comprenderlo argomentando solo in termini economici sarebbe fuorviante.

Così come sarebbe fuorviante cercare di tenersi aggiornati leggendo solo i media occidentali liberal democratici. Alla fine poi ci si scontra con la realtà.

«Sarraj, who was appointed last year to lead the new government of national accord, has been unable to assert his authority outside Tripoli. Haftar’s rival administration is based in Libya’s remote east.»

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«The two rivals agreed a cease-fire at talks in France last month and committed to holding elections, a plan which was endorsed by the UN Security Council.»

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«Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Monday backed the efforts of Libya’s military commander Khalifa Haftar and his rival UN-backed Prime Minister Fayez Al-Sarraj to reach a peace agreement in the conflict-ridden country.»

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«We actively support the emerging trend to step up the process of political resolution, toward a full restoration of statehood in your country» [Mr Lavrov]

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«We know about your efforts, together with Sarraj, aimed at achieving a generally accepted agreement on optimal ways to execute the Skhirat political agreement that would be acceptable for everyone» [Mr Lavrov]

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«Lavrov emphasised the UN’s role in the peace process, adding that the new UN special envoy to Libya, Ghassan Salame, who started work this month, was also due in Moscow.»

* * * * * * *

L’attuale situazioni in Libia è stata determinata da un accordo internazionale tra molte potenze politiche, economiche e militari: alcune grandi, altre piccole, altre infine utili solo come comparse, a scopo di propaganda.

Dai tempi della “primavera araba” ad oggi è passato molto tempo ed il quadro geopolitico e militare è mutato in modo sostanziale.

Se lodiamo l’iniziativa di pace patrocinata da Mr Marcon, che pure qualche frutto lo ha portato, si dovrebbe constatare come la Francia singola non abbia la forza di proporre, ed anche imporre, una pace reale in tale landa agendo da sola. Stesso ragionamento per la Germania e per l’Unione Europea.

Se ci si rende conto che Mr Macron abbia agito anche per scopi di visibilità e di politica interna, cercando di ritagliarsi un ruolo anche nell’ambito della Unione Europea, si constata anche il suo sostanziale insuccesso.

Cercare di agire in modo solitario è affare oramai fuori dal tempo, specie poi nel problema libico. Per Mr Macron è stata la sconfitta che riconosce la sua reale impotenza.

La soluzione del problema libico passa attraverso le Nazioni Unite, e solo ed esclusivamente con un accordo delle tre superpotenze mondiali: America, Russia e Cina. Sentiti sicuramente pareri ed ascoltati gli interessi anche degli attori mediorientali, ma non necessariamente le istanze dell’Unione Europea o di singoli stati dell’Unione.

In ogni caso, senza accordo anche e soprattutto con la Russia non si può ottenere nulla.

E Mr Lavrov ha messo il dito sul punto cardine:

«political agreement that would be acceptable for everyone»

Questa è l’essenza dell’agire diplomatico: soddisfare degnamente tutte le parti in causa.


Aska. 2017-08-14. Libia, Haftar: Mosca abbia un ruolo nel processo di riconciliazione

Generale libico ha incontrato oggi a Mosca ministro Esteri Lavrov.

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Mosca, 14 ago. (askanews) – Il generale Khalifa Haftar si è detto “sicuro che la Russia rimarrà nostro stretto alleato e non si rifiuterà di aiutarci”, auspicando anche, durante il colloquio avuto oggi con il ministro degli Esteri russo Sergei Lavrov, un ruolo di Mosca nel processo di riconciliazione avviato con il premier del governo di accordo nazionale, Fayez al Sarraj: “Noi saremmo felici se la Russia potesse aiutarci in questa cosa – ha detto Haftar, citato dall’agenzia di stampa Interfax – non abbiamo discusso di un ruolo specifico della Russia, ma noi siamo favorevoli a un ruolo della Russia in questo processo, qualunque sia”.

A fine luglio, Haftar e Sarraj si sono incontrati in Francia e hanno raggiunto un accordo su una dichiarazione in 10 punti che prevede un cessate il fuoco ed elezioni. Oggi Lavrov ha detto che tutti gli sforzi di mediazione per risolvere la crisi in Libia devono passare per le Nazioni Unite.


Sputnik. 2017-08-14. Lavrov Tells Haftar Russia Supports Full-Scale Restoration of Libyan Statehood

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Moscow supports the full-scale restoration of the statehood of Libya.

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MOSCOW (Sputnik) – Lavrov added that while the situation in Libya remains complicated, actions are being undertaken in order to reach national a political solution.

«”Unfortunately, the situation in Libya remains difficult, the threat of extremism has not been overcome in your homeland. However, we know about the actions which are being undertaken and actively support the tendency of intensification of political resolution processes, the full-scale restoration of the statehood of your country,” Lavrov said at a meeting with Khalifa Haftar, the head of the Libyan Natonal Army.»

Russia supports the intention of Libyan National Army Commander Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar to reach an agreement with Prime Minister of the Libyan Government of National Accord Fayez Sarraj, Lavrov said.

“We are aware of the efforts being made with your participation, with the participation of Sarraj, which are aimed at ensuring generally acceptable agreements on optimal ways of implementing the Skhirat agreement,” Lavrov told Haftar. “We support your set towards reaching such agreements,” he added.

All mediation efforts in Libya should be carried out on the basis of the United Nations, Lavrov said.

«”We believe that it is very important to focus all mediation efforts and ideas on the political front on the basis of the activities of the United Nations.”»

According to Lavrov, Moscow sees such activities “not as aimed at development of solutions, but as a contribution to the most favorable conditions for a dialogue between key figures in Libya, so that they themselves agree on the future of their country.”

«”This is our principled stance,” the minister said.»

Libya has been suffering from a civil war since 2011 when long-time leader Muammar Gaddafi was overthrown. The country’s eastern regions are governed by the elected parliament headquartered in the city of Tobruk. Besides, the Government of National Accord, formed with the support from the United Nations and Europe and headed by Fayez Sarraj, operates in the country’s west, including the Libyan capital of Tripoli.

The eastern authorities act independently from the west, cooperating with the National Army led by Haftar, which fights against Islamist terrorists.

Moscow has been providing support for the regulation of the crisis in Libya and has repeatedly said it was ready to cooperate with all the interested Libyan parties.


Arab News. 2017-08-14. Moscow backs peace efforts by Libya rivals: Lavrov

MOSCOW: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Monday backed the efforts of Libya’s military commander Khalifa Haftar and his rival UN-backed Prime Minister Fayez Al-Sarraj to reach a peace agreement in the conflict-ridden country.

“We actively support the emerging trend to step up the process of political resolution, toward a full restoration of statehood in your country,” Lavrov told Haftar in remarks released by the Foreign Ministry after the two men met in Moscow.
“We know about your efforts, together with Sarraj, aimed at achieving a generally accepted agreement on optimal ways to execute the Skhirat political agreement that would be acceptable for everyone,” Lavrov said.

The UN-backed Skhirat Agreement was reached in 2015 as the basis for a political process in Libya, but it had been rejected by Haftar and other factions.

“We support your intent on achieving some progress,” Lavrov said.

Libya has been in chaos since the 2011 uprising that toppled former ruler Muammar Qaddafi.

Sarraj, who was appointed last year to lead the new government of national accord, has been unable to assert his authority outside Tripoli. Haftar’s rival administration is based in Libya’s remote east.

The two rivals agreed a cease-fire at talks in France last month and committed to holding elections, a plan which was endorsed by the UN Security Council.

On Monday, Lavrov emphasised the UN’s role in the peace process, adding that the new UN special envoy to Libya, Ghassan Salame, who started work this month, was also due in Moscow.

“Unfortunately, the situation in your country continues to be complicated. The threat of extremism has not been overcome, though we know about the actions being taken to eradicate it,” Lavrov said.

Pubblicato in: Problemia Energetici

Summit di Doha visto dalla parte araba.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2016-04-18.

 Raffineria 010

Abbiamo già riferito sul Summit di Doha.

«Saudi Arabia has refused to cut production despite the price fall»

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L’attenzione del largo pubblico occidentale si è focalizzata sull’esito negativo del Summit: negativo nel senso che tutti avrebbero auspicato un congelamento delle quantità di greggio estratte.

Tutti però dal punto di vista occidentale: ma non esiste solo quello.

Volenti o nolenti esistono anche altri punti di vista: l’Occidente rende conto di circa un buon terzo del pil mondiale, non è più il sistema economico egemone.

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È significativo come Al Arabiya pubblichi un articolo letteralmente riportato dall’agenzia Afp. Una scelta che è tutto un programma.

Aljazeera pubblica invece un cautissimo articolo, che però mette in luce le vere novità del Summit.

«We support cooperation between OPEC and non-OPEC member countries and efforts to bring stability to the oil market, and we urge all producers to continue their negotiations»

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«We believe prices will rise regardless what OPEC does or does not do, as US shale oil production, not Saudi Arabia, will be the new swing producer. … We believe oil prices will rise to a sustainable level closer to $60, the new normal, not $100 and not $40 either».

*

La Saudi Gazette pubblica un articolo molto interessante da leggersi tra le righe, anche se talune affermazioni sono state fatte ore rotundo.

«Russia’s RIA Novosti news agency also quoted Azerbaijani Energy Minister Natiq Aliyev as saying the draft included the output freeze at January levels until October.

The meeting in Doha is a follow-up to talks in February between OPEC members Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Venezuela plus Russia in which they first mooted the output freeze.

Saudi Arabia has insisted that all major producers must be on board for the freeze to work.

But Tehran, which has boosted production following the lifting of sanctions under its nuclear deal with world powers, has rejected any talk of a freeze.»

*

«The meeting in Doha is a follow-up to talks in February between OPEC members Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Venezuela plus Russia in which they first mooted the output freeze»

*

L’Arabia Saudita è arrivata al Summit con il dente avvelenato contro l’Occidente:

Arabia Saudita. Potrebbe essere costretta a vendere 750 bn$ in Treasury.

E questo potrebbe anche essere il meno.

La sua reputazione ha subito negli ultimi tempi seri smacchi, anche perché avevano riposto molta, forse troppa, fiducia in un alleato più versato nei temi erotici che geopolitici.

Al Arabiya da ampio spazio al fatto che il Summit sia stato allargato a molti produttori non-Opec, specialmente la Russia ed alla mancata partecipazione dell’Iran, che sarebbe dipinto come l’elemento causale del “mancato accordo”.

Non solo.

La stessa struttura dell’articolo mette in primo piano la figura di Moḥammad bin Salmān, proposto qui come figura chiave delle trattative.

Concludendo.

Per quanto importante possa essere la conclusione del Summit, questi due ultimi fattori sembrerebbero essere decisamente molto più importanti almeno dal punto di vista arabo.

Punto di vista che noi Occidentali dovremmo prendere l’abitudine di considerare con molta maggiore attenzione. Aver infine preconizzato un prezzo al barile attorno ai 60 Usd non sembrerebbe essere cosa da poco.

 

Saudi Gazette. 2016-04-18. Oil producers mull output freeze in Doha

Doha — Major oil producers gathered in Qatar on Sunday for crucial talks on capping production to boost prices, despite Iran’s refusal to take part.

Top energy officials from some 15 countries including Saudi Arabia and Russia were at the Doha talks, amid reports a draft agreement was in the works to freeze output at January levels until at least October.

Major producers both inside and outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are anxious to stem a market nosedive that has cost exporters billions in lost revenue.

From above $100 in mid-2014, oil prices dropped to 13-year lows of around $27 in February due to a supply glut, though they have since rebounded to about $40.

Officials held “consultations” in the morning and delayed the official start of the meeting from 0600 GMT to the afternoon, a member of the Ecuadorian delegation told reporters, declining to provide details. Other officials confirmed the delay.

Ecuadoran Hydrocarbons Minister Carlos Pareja told reporters that his country would support a plan to freeze output until at least October.

He said proposals under discussion also call for “setting up a committee to monitor the freeze,” but provided no further details.

Pareja warned that if no action were taken “there will be huge damage to the oil industry.”

Russia’s RIA Novosti news agency also quoted Azerbaijani Energy Minister Natiq Aliyev as saying the draft included the output freeze at January levels until October.

The meeting in Doha is a follow-up to talks in February between OPEC members Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Venezuela plus Russia in which they first mooted the output freeze.

Saudi Arabia has insisted that all major producers must be on board for the freeze to work.

But Tehran, which has boosted production following the lifting of sanctions under its nuclear deal with world powers, has rejected any talk of a freeze.

Iran had initially said its OPEC representative would participate in the talks but on Sunday Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh announced Tehran would send no delegation at all.

Deputy Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman, second deputy premier and minister of defense, reiterated in an interview with Bloomberg published on Saturday that the Kingdom would not accept a freeze without Tehran’s cooperation.

OPEC said on Wednesday that Iranian oil production in March was 3.3 million bpd, up from 2.9 million in January, but still short of its pre-embargo level of around 4.0 million.

OPEC said its members pumped 32.25 million bpd in March — with Saudi Arabia accounting for nearly a third — up from an average of 31.85 million bpd in 2015.

Saudi Arabia has refused to cut production despite the price fall.

Host country Qatar said “an atmosphere of optimism” spread on the eve of the meeting.

Kuwait’s acting oil minister Anas Al-Saleh told reporters on arrival in Doha that “he was optimistic” about the success of the conference.

Still, oil prices had tumbled on Friday as traders bet that the meeting in Doha will yield no effective measures to curb the global oversupply.

 

Al Arabiya. 2016-04-18. Oil prices plunge after Doha output talks fail.

Oil prices plunged on Monday after the world’s top producers failed to reach an agreement on capping output and easing a global supply glut at a meeting in Doha.

Hopes the world’s largest producer cartel, OPEC, and other major producers like Russia would agree to freeze output has helped scrape oil prices off the 13-year lows they touched in February.

But crude tanked after top producer Saudi Arabia walked away from the agreement, which many hoped would ease a huge surplus in world supplies, after rival Iran boycotted the meeting.

The collapse of Sunday’s talks sent oil tumbling in early Asia trade, with prices sliding as much as seven percent in opening deals.

At around 0100 GMT, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate for May delivery was down $2.11, or 5.23 percent, from Friday’s close at $38.25 a barrel.

Global benchmark Brent crude for June lost 4.71 percent, or $2.03, to $41.07.

[Questo articolo è stato ripreso da Afp. N.d.R.]

 

Aljazeera. 2016-04-18. Oil prices dive as Doha talks on output freeze fail.

Brent oil down to about $40 as Saudi Arabia refuses to sign deal without Iran involvement.

*

Oil prices have steeply dropped towards $40 after a deal to freeze oil output by the world’s biggest oil producers falls apart.

The market response came on Monday, just hours after Iran, which is trying to ramp up output as international sanctions are lifted, stayed away from a weekend meeting of 18 OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers in Doha, Qatar.

Saudi Arabia said on Sunday that it would not back the deal if Iran was not involved.

Kazempour Ardebilli, Iranian OPEC governor, insisted on Monday that Tehran was justified in not freezing its own output, but urged other oil producers to continue talks on an output freeze to prop up crude oil prices.

“We support cooperation between OPEC and non-OPEC member countries and efforts to bring stability to the oil market, and we urge all producers to continue their negotiations,” Ardebilli said.

The failure of talks has revived oil industry fears that major producers are going back into a battle over market share that has already driven prices to as low as $27 per barrel in January from highs around $115 in mid-2014.

Saudi Arabia’s top oil official, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, threatened last week to raise output by as much as two million barrels per day (bpd) from the current levels if the deal freeze was not reached by all members.

That would amount to more than two percent of global supply and significantly exacerbate the glut. Iran also wants to raise output by at least 0.5 million bpd. Iraq and Libya could also add barrels to the market.

Low oil prices have helped the global economy but some international financial organisations have warned that a very prolonged period of low prices could damage global growth.

However, Fadel Gheit, a senior energy analyst at Oppenheimer & Co, said the recent cutbacks in investments will help rebalance supply and demand in the longer-run whatever the short-term disruption caused by the Doha meeting failure.

“We believe prices will rise regardless what OPEC does or does not do, as US shale oil production, not Saudi Arabia, will be the new swing producer,” Gheit said. “We believe oil prices will rise to a sustainable level closer to $60, the new normal, not $100 and not $40 either.”

 

 

 

 

Pubblicato in: Problemia Energetici

Russia – Arabia per blocco produzione petrolio.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2016-04-18.

 Petrolio. Costo per produttore. 001

«Oil producers meeting in Doha to discuss production cap»

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«Saudi prince said before summit he won’t freeze without Iran»

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«Saudi Arabia and Russia have approved a deal to freeze crude output until Oct. 1 at January levels and other producers are expected to do so»

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«At least 16 nations representing about half the world’s oil output are gathering on Sunday in the Qatari capital to discuss the proposal, aimed at stabilizing the oil market»

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«Crude oil has rallied more than 30 percent since an agreement was first mooted in February»

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«Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest crude exporter, would cap its market share at about 10.3 million to 10.4 million barrels a day, if other producers agreed to the freeze»

*

«If all major producers don’t freeze production, we will not freeze production»

*

«Iran whose crude shipments have risen by more than 600,000 barrels a day this month. That increase has added to the pressure on producer nations to reach an agreement to prop up prices as economies from Venezuela to Nigeria reel from the market rout»

*

«Il vertice, che ha avuto luogo nella capitale del Qatar, è terminato senza che nessuna decisione sia stata presa: questa la dichiarazione di Emmanuel Kachikwu, ministro del Petrolio della Nigeria.

Gli analisti di settore si erano già pronunciati per uno scarso impatto sui prezzi derivante da un eventuale accordo, ma le prime dichiarazioni di Citigroup mettono in guardia da un possibile calo dei prezzi.» [Commodities Trading]

* * * * * *

Dovrebbe essere pleonastico ricordare quanto il volume di estrazione del petrolio sia potente concausa del prezzo finale del greggio al barile, anche se il valore di mercato è sotteso da una grande quantità di elementi variabili, soprattutto di ordine politico.

Ben pochi osano però parlare della grande protagonista che condiziona in modo severo questo mercato: la crisi e la stagnazione economica.

Per sua causa la domanda di greggio ha avuto periodi di contrazione e non ha evidenziato gli incrementi che in passato erano stati ipotizzati.

(1). Un attento riesame di quanto sia successo negli ultimi anni porterebbe a concludere che l’equazione per cui al calo del prezzo del greggio dovrebbe associare ripresa economica mondiale per riduzione del costo degli energetici sia solo una grossolana approssimazione della realtà.

(2). Sempre che al momento gli Stati Uniti ne abbiano una, sembrerebbe emergere l’assenza o la mancata incisività di una precisa strategia americana nel contesto geopolitico medio orientale. Verosimilmente, questo potrebbe essere la risultante delle dilaceranti lotte intestine per le nomination e, quindi, per le elezioni presidenziali.

(3). Nessuno, tranne gli Stati Uniti per motivi ideologici, sembrerebbe avere al momento interesse ad affossare il sistema economico venezuelano e nigeriano. Anzi, Cina, Russia ed Arabia Saudita sembrerebbero essere desiderose di aiutarle ad uscire dal’empasse.

(4). Negli ultimi tempi i rapporti diplomatici ed economici tra Stati Uniti ed Arabia Saudita si sono molto deteriorati, al punto tale che negli Usa si sta varando una legge che consentirebbe di portare l’Arabia Saudita in Tribunale. Tensione questa che non favorisce certo la possibilità di raggiungere accordi stabili.

(5). Concludendo, sembrerebbe molto logico ipotizzare che il prezzo del greggio non troverà pace fino a quando non sia avvenuto il ricambio alla Casa Bianca e sotto la condizione che il nuovo presidente sia persona con i piedi sulla terra.

(6). Il fatto che alla fine del vertice non sia stata pubblicata nessuna decisione sembrerebbe essere ininfluente sulla verosimile esistenza di un accordo di massima russo – arabo. Il punto focale non è l’accordo, per importante che esso sia, quanto il fatto politico che russi ed arabi si siano seduti attorno ad un tavolo a discutere. Poi, mica che sono tenuti a rendere pubblico il contenuto dei loro discorsi.

 

Bloomberg. 2016-04-17. Russia, Saudi Arabia Approve Oil Freeze Deal, Says Oman Minister

– Oil producers meeting in Doha to discuss production cap

– Saudi prince said before summit he won’t freeze without Iran

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Saudi Arabia and Russia have approved a deal to freeze crude output until Oct. 1 at January levels and other producers are expected to do so, Mohammed Al Rumhy, Oman’s oil minister, said in an interview in Doha.

At least 16 nations representing about half the world’s oil output are gathering on Sunday in the Qatari capital to discuss the proposal, aimed at stabilizing the oil market. Prior to the meeting, Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince said the nation wouldn’t agree to restrain its production unless other producers, including Iran, agree to freeze. Iran decided not to attend the meeting.

The comments from the world’s largest oil exporter cast doubt on the outcome of Sunday’s summit. Crude oil has rallied more than 30 percent since an agreement was first mooted in February. If the group were to fail to reach an agreement it would lead to a “severe” drop in prices, Citigroup Inc. predicted before the meeting.

Everybody is “optimistic” Kuwait’s Acting Oil Minister Anas al-Saleh said before the meeting, adding that a deal would “hopefully happen.”

Saudi Position.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest crude exporter, would cap its market share at about 10.3 million to 10.4 million barrels a day, if other producers agreed to the freeze, Prince Mohammed bin Salman said during an interview April 14 at King Salman’s private farm in Diriyah. Iran’s oil minister, Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, said Saturday he won’t attend the Doha talks and won’t be a signatory to any deal as it would amount to self-imposed sanctions on the country which is restoring crude production after the removal of a ban on its shipments.

“If all major producers don’t freeze production, we will not freeze production,” said Prince Mohammed, 30, who has emerged as Saudi Arabia’s leading economic force. “If we don’t freeze, then we will sell at any opportunity we get.”

Russian Outlook

The freeze agreement has no enforcement mechanism, Oman’s Al Rumhy said, though he said he expects everyone to stick to it. The pact is open for other producers to join, he said.

A Russian official said Saturday that it was possible to reach a deal, regardless of Iran whose crude shipments have risen by more than 600,000 barrels a day this month. That increase has added to the pressure on producer nations to reach an agreement to prop up prices as economies from Venezuela to Nigeria reel from the market rout.

No Show

“A no-show by the Iranians is actually positive for the Doha talks as all know that they wouldn’t agree at this stage,” said John Sfakianakis, director of economics research at the Gulf Research Center. “A deal can be reached even if Iran for now is absent. The sentiment is still positive as global supply is falling. The Iranian participation issue is not significant and will be reconsidered down the road. There is enough momentum with the rest of the members now.”

The meeting in Doha is only relevant if no deal is reached, prompting a sharp sell-off in the markets, according to Ed Morse, head of commodities research at Citigroup Inc.

The recent rebound in oil futures suggests that the 20-month sell-off could be hitting a bottom, amid efforts to reduce the supply glut, OPEC Secretary General Abdulla El-Badri said in a statement posted on Saturday on the website of the International Monetary Fund.

Credit Ratings

The credit ratings of more than 10 oil-producing nations in the developing world were placed on review in March for a downgrade by Moody’s Investors Service, which cited the shock of depressed prices on these economies. The list includes Russia, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Angola, Gabon and five of the six Gulf Cooperation Council nations — Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Qatar, according to Moody’s.

Saudi Arabia’s creditworthiness was downgraded by Fitch Ratings after the plunge in oil prices. The kingdom’s rating was lowered one level to AA-, the fourth-highest investment grade, the ratings company said on April 12. It maintained a negative outlook for the credit, signaling the possibility of more downgrades.

Others’ Battle

“If prices went up to $60 or $70, that would be a strong factor to push forward the wheel of development,” Prince Mohammed said. “But this battle is not my battle. It’s the battle of others who are suffering from low oil prices.” 

Prince Mohammed also said that Saudi Arabia isn’t concerned because “we have our own programs that don’t need high oil prices.”

The prince also outlined the amount of spare capacity that the kingdom could bring to the market, underlining its pivotal role in global oil markets.

Saudi Arabia could increase output to 11.5 million barrels a day immediately and go to 12.5 million in six to nine months “if we wanted to,” Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who is also chairman of the Supreme Council of Saudi Arabian Oil Co., said in an interview Thursday. The country pumped 10.2 million barrels a day last month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Brent crude settled at $43.10 a barrel Friday in London, having rebounded by more than 50 percent from a 12-year low in January.

After OPEC abandoned its efforts to boost oil prices in November 2014, focusing instead on protecting its market share, Saudi Arabia increased production to an all-time high of more than 10.5 million barrels a day, saying that customers were asking for more crude.

The meeting of oil producers in Doha follows a gathering in February between Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Russia and Venezuela in which the quartet tentatively agreed to cap their production at January’s level.