Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Cina, Devoluzione socialismo, Russia, Stati Uniti

Usa. Le sanzioni di Joe Biden hanno generato un possente mercato dello Yuan.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-08-02.

 2022-08-01__ Rublo Yuan 001

«Joe Biden’s assertion that sanctions had turned the ruble into rubble»

«L’affermazione di Joe Biden secondo cui le sanzioni avrebbero ridotto il rublo in macerie»

si è rivelata essere una galattica cantonata.

L’effetto più vistoso ed importante è stata la generazione di un blocco euroasiatico politico, finanziario, economico e militare.

La Russia prosegue a vendere i propri prodotti energetici entro questo blocco, mentre l’enclave liberal occidentale soffre una severa penuria di materie prime.

Russia. 2022Q2. Export 153.1 miliardi. Annualizzato sarebbero 612.4 miliardi.

Tutta questa impresa ha gravato sui Contribuente Elettori americani, concorrendo potentemente alla generazione di una inflazione incontrollata.

Usa. Misurata in modo corretto l’inflazione è al 17.1% annualizzato. – Bloomberg.

Sequenziali gli aggiustamenti sui mercati internazionali.

Cina. Le riserve in dollari americani sono scese sotto il trilione.

Ma l’effetto di maggiore portata è stato sul mercato valutario

«The war in Ukraine has accelerated Russia’s pivot east and sent local demand for China’s yuan surging»

«They are actively shifting to currencies other than the dollar and the euro»

Nel blocco euroasiatico lo yuan è diventato la valuta di riferimento e di riserva, scalzando il dollaro americano.

Sta prendendo corpo una larga porzione di stati a livello mondiale che si avviano alla dedollarizzazione.

In pratica, tutto il modo libero si sta dollarizzando.

Brics Plus. Sono diventati la prima potenza mondiale e l’occidente liberal ne è escluso.

Joe Biden è diventato il becchino degli Stati  Uniti.

* * * * * * *

La guerra in Ucraina ha accelerato l’orientamento della Russia verso est e ha fatto impennare la domanda locale di yuan cinese, contribuendo a domare un rally del rublo durato quattro mesi che ha messo sotto pressione le imprese e il bilancio.

I volumi di scambio giornalieri della coppia yuan-rublo sono quasi raddoppiati questa settimana rispetto alla scorsa, raggiungendo mercoledì il massimo giornaliero di 7,82 miliardi di yuan (1,16 miliardi di dollari).

I volumi della coppia di valute yuan-rublo sono ora superiori a quelli della coppia euro-rublo. …. Si stanno spostando attivamente verso valute diverse dal dollaro e dall’euro. …. Il gigante dell’alluminio Rusal offre il primo bond locale russo in yuan.

Nonostante l’isolamento della Russia, la sua valuta ha registrato un’impennata da febbraio. Le aziende hanno continuato a convertire in rubli miliardi di dollari di entrate derivanti dalle esportazioni di energia, mentre i controlli valutari e il crollo delle importazioni hanno fatto sì che ci fosse poco appetito per il biglietto verde.

Ma l’appetito per lo yuan, così come il taglio dei tassi superiore alle previsioni della scorsa settimana, sembrano raffreddare un rally che ha minato l’affermazione del presidente statunitense Joe Biden secondo cui le sanzioni avrebbero trasformato il rublo in macerie.

Il volume degli scambi yuan-rublo ha raggiunto i 94 miliardi di yuan a luglio, rispetto ai 54 miliardi di giugno.

Prestate attenzione alla coppia yuan-rublo, e vedrete che la valuta cinese si è rafforzata in modo più significativo quando i volumi di scambio hanno raggiunto un record.

Il volume degli scambi è quasi raddoppiato nell’ultimo mese, mentre non si può ancora parlare di una ripresa così forte delle importazioni.

* * * * * * *

«The war in Ukraine has accelerated Russia’s pivot east and sent local demand for China’s yuan surging, helping tame a four-month ruble rally that’s piled pressure on companies and the budget»

«Daily trading volumes in the yuan-ruble pair are on track to almost double this week compared with last, hitting an all-time daily high of 7.82 billion yuan ($1.16 billion) on Wednesday»

«Volumes for the yuan-ruble currency pair are now higher than for the euro-ruble pair»

They are actively shifting to currencies other than the dollar and the euro ….     Aluminum Giant Rusal Offers Russia’s First Local Bond in Yuan»

«Despite Russia’s isolation, its currency had been on a tear since February. Companies continued to convert billions of dollars of revenue from energy exports into rubles, while currency controls and collapsing imports meant there was little appetite for the greenback»

«But appetite for the yuan, as well as a bigger-than-forecast rate cut last week, appear to be cooling a rally that undermined US President Joe Biden’s assertion that sanctions had turned the ruble into “rubble.”»

«The volume of yuan-ruble trading reached 94 billion yuan in July compared with 54 billion in June»

«Pay attention to the yuan-ruble pair, and you’ll see the Chinese currency strengthened more significantly when trading volumes were at a record»

«The trading volume almost doubled over the past month, while we can’t yet talk about such a strong recovery in imports»

* * * * * * *


Ruble Is Stumbling as Yuan Trading Volumes Soar to Record

(Bloomberg) — The war in Ukraine has accelerated Russia’s pivot east and sent local demand for China’s yuan surging, helping tame a four-month ruble rally that’s piled pressure on companies and the budget. 

Daily trading volumes in the yuan-ruble pair are on track to almost double this week compared with last, hitting an all-time daily high of 7.82 billion yuan ($1.16 billion) on Wednesday, according to Moscow Exchange data. Volumes for the yuan-ruble currency pair are now higher than for the euro-ruble pair, the figures show. The ruble is the worst performer against the dollar among emerging markets this month. 

Sweeping sanctions since the invasion of Ukraine have cut Russia off from global markets, making dollar and euro investments toxic for local investors. The government has suggested buying the currencies of so-called friendly nations to cool the ruble’s surge this year, but there’s no indication that the latest jump in yuan trading was due to coordinated interventions.  

“Not only Russia’s government, but also private and institutional investors, participants in foreign economic activity are interested in avoiding external infrastructure risks,” said George Vaschenko, the head of Russian stock-market operations at Freedom Finance LLC. “They are actively shifting to currencies other than the dollar and the euro.” 

Aluminum Giant Rusal Offers Russia’s First Local Bond in Yuan

The Bank of Russia didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. 

Despite Russia’s isolation, its currency had been on a tear since February. Companies continued to convert billions of dollars of revenue from energy exports into rubles, while currency controls and collapsing imports meant there was little appetite for the greenback. 

The ruble touched its strongest level in seven years years last month, stoking concern the gains would hinder companies’ competitiveness and reduce budget revenue from exports in local-currency terms. 

                         Ruble as Rubble? 

But appetite for the yuan, as well as a bigger-than-forecast rate cut last week, appear to be cooling a rally that undermined US President Joe Biden’s assertion that sanctions had turned the ruble into “rubble.”

The currency is down more than 16% in so far in July and is set to snap a four month run of losses against the dollar. The volume of yuan-ruble trading reached 94 billion yuan in July compared with 54 billion in June, according to Bloomberg calculations based on Moscow Exchange daily data as of the close Thursday. 

“The dollar gained through cross-currency effects,” said Egor Zhilnikov, chief analyst at Promsvyazbank PJSC. “Pay attention to the yuan-ruble pair, and you’ll see the Chinese currency strengthened more significantly when trading volumes were at a record.”

At the end of June, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said the government is considering reviving a version of its pre-war fiscal rule to divert energy earnings into foreign exchange, thus indirectly weakening the ruble. The new approach would target currencies not hit by sanctions. He didn’t specify what currencies might be considered.

Governor Elvira Nabiullina said last week that the Bank of Russia is ready to start purchases under the budget rule as early as this year.

Andrey Kochetkov, a dealer at Otkritie Bank FC in Moscow, suggested that the government may already be in the market. 

“The trading volume almost doubled over the past month, while we can’t yet talk about such a strong recovery in imports,” he said. “So it seems that the participation of the authorities in foreign exchange trading is the most likely reason” for the ruble’s weakness, he said.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

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