Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime, Unione Europea

Blocco Europeo è strangolato dai rincari del 280% YoY del Gas Naturale. – Mr Putin ringrazia.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-23.

2021-09-22__ Gas prices 001

Il mercato dell’energia americano è una realtà separata e differente da quella del Blocco Europeo.

Se è vero che sul mercato americano il natural gas abbia costi di produzione aumentati di oltre il 100% nell’ultimo anno, sarebbe altrettanto vero constatare come sul mercato del Blocco Europeo il wholesale power prices del natural gas sia levitato oltre il 250%.

Ricordiamo come il termine “wholesale power prices” significhi “the price that a store or business pays for goods that it will then sell to the public”: è il prezzo praticato dai grossisti per i grossisti.

«→→ The gas market chaos, which has driven prices 280% higher in Europe this year and led to a 100%-plus surge in the United States, is being blamed on a range of factors from low storage levels to carbon prices to reduced Russian supplies ←←»

«→→ The story emerging from the UK energy sector will soon be more relevant to the European market than Evergrande ←←»

Questi prezzi del natural gas sono tali da strozzare il sistema produttivo e condurre rapidamente al fallimento, come sta accadendo nel Regno Unito.

* * * * * * *

«Low inventory around the world has made heating fuel more expensive than it has been in years»

«Rock-bottom gas prices have been a reliable feature of the US economy since the financial crisis»

«The gas is burned to generate electricity and heat homes and to make plastics, steel and fertilizers»

«A substantial and sustained increase in prices will be felt from households to heavy industry.»

* * *

«Soaring gas prices that threaten to push up winter fuel bills, hurt consumption and exacerbate a near-term spike in inflation are another blow to a world economy just getting back on its feet after the coronavirus shock»

«→→ The gas market chaos, which has driven prices 280% higher in Europe this year and led to a 100%-plus surge in the United States, is being blamed on a range of factors from low storage levels to carbon prices to reduced Russian supplies ←←»

«Whatever the causes, the surge carries major market implications»

«the impact in the United States …. should be small. While over a third of U.S. energy consumption in 2020 was supplied by natural gas»

«Overall though, higher gas prices raise the risk of stagflation – high inflation, low growth»

«Euro zone wholesale power prices are at record highs, potentially exacerbating inflation pressures inflicted by COVID-related supply bottlenecks»

«In Germany, 310,000 households face an 11.5% increase in gas bills»

«Noting German factory gate prices were already the highest since 1974, Citi analysts predicted 5% hikes for electricity and gas prices in January, adding 0.25 percentage points to consumer inflation next year»

«Cuts in fertiliser production could also lift food prices»

«Central banks are sticking with the line that the spike in inflation is temporary»

«This week’s central bank meetings could test policymakers’ resolve»

«With UK producer price inflation soaring, shipping costs showing little sign of cooling, commodity prices higher up and job vacancies tipping 1 million, there is a growing chance that higher prices will stick around for longer»

«more (BoE) members may move quickly to vote for a rate rise sooner than expected next year, but it would be an unpopular course of action with looming tax rises already hard to digest for many consumers»

«Britain is considering offering state-backed loans to energy firms after big suppliers requested support to cover the cost of taking on customers from companies that went bust under the impact of gas prices»

«→→ The story emerging from the UK energy sector will soon be more relevant to the European market than Evergrande ←←»

* * *

«British energy firms fear collapse as Europe’s gas crisis sees prices surge 250%»

«Britain’s energy industry could be headed for a significant shake-up, industry insiders have warned, as countries all over Europe grapple with an unprecedented crisis in the power sector»

«Wholesale gas prices have spiked across the region, with the U.K. being hit particularly hard»

«The front-month gas price at the Dutch TTF hub, a European benchmark for natural gas trading, gained on Monday to trade at 73.150 euros ($85.69) per megawatt-hour, hovering close to the record high seen last week»

«Since January, the contract has risen more than 250%»

«the crisis was being caused by a “cocktail of pretty potent things” that were outside of suppliers’ control»

«→→ These included strong competition for natural gas deliveries between Europe and Asia, some outages at U.S. production facilities, and a tightening of EU carbon market rules ←←»

«Start-up Bulb, the country’s sixth-largest supplier, is seeking a bailout, while four smaller competitors recently ceased trading»

* * * * * * *

Non esiste sistema economico che possa produrre alcunché senza costi ragionevoli dell’energia.

Nel Blocco Europeo gli energetici, già cari di per sé stessi, sono inoltre gravati da una pletora di tasse e balzelli ecologici, alle quali va imputata gran parte del sovrapprezzo.

Di ideologia si muore.

* * * * * * *


Natural-Gas Prices Surge, and Winter Is Still Months Away.

«                       Low inventory around the world has made heating fuel more expensive than it has been in years

It’s considered the off-season for demand, and prices haven’t climbed as high since a blizzard lashed the Northeast in early 2014. Analysts say this winter should not be cold enough to push prices to heights unknown during the shale era, which turned the US from a gas importer to a supplier to the world.

Rock-bottom gas prices have been a reliable feature of the US economy since the financial crisis. The effluents extracted with sideways drilling and hydraulic fracturing caused the gas to crash and never recovered. The gas is burned to generate electricity and heat homes and to make plastics, steel and fertilizers. A substantial and sustained increase in prices will be felt from households to heavy industry.

The stock has already received a lift from $5 gas.»

* * *

Gas price surge, just one more headwind for world economy.

London, Sept 20 (Reuters) – Soaring gas prices that threaten to push up winter fuel bills, hurt consumption and exacerbate a near-term spike in inflation are another blow to a world economy just getting back on its feet after the coronavirus shock.

The gas market chaos, which has driven prices 280% higher in Europe this year and led to a 100%-plus surge in the United States, is being blamed on a range of factors from low storage levels to carbon prices to reduced Russian supplies.

So high are tensions that several European Parliament lawmakers have demanded an investigation into what they said could be market manipulation by Russia’s Gazprom.

Whatever the causes, the surge carries major market implications:

                         1/GROWTH

Analysts say it’s too early to downgrade economic growth forecasts but a hit to economic activity looks inevitable.

Morgan Stanley reckons the impact in the United States, the world’s biggest economy, should be small. While over a third of U.S. energy consumption in 2020 was supplied by natural gas, users were predominantly industrial, it notes.

Overall though, higher gas prices raise the risk of stagflation – high inflation, low growth.

“It is quite clear there is a growing sense of unease about the economic outlook as a growing number of companies look ahead to the prospect of rising costs,” said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets.

                         2/INFLATION

Euro zone wholesale power prices are at record highs, potentially exacerbating inflation pressures inflicted by COVID-related supply bottlenecks. In Germany, 310,000 households face an 11.5% increase in gas bills, data showed on Monday.

Noting German factory gate prices were already the highest since 1974, Citi analysts predicted 5% hikes for electricity and gas prices in January, adding 0.25 percentage points to consumer inflation next year.

Higher food costs are another side effect, given a shortage of carbon dioxide which is used in slaughterhouses and to prolong the shelf-life of food. Cuts in fertiliser production could also lift food prices.

Goldman Sachs predicts higher oil demand, with a $5 per barrel upside risk to its fourth-quarter 2021 Brent price forecast of $80 a barrel. Brent is trading at about $74 currently .

                         3/CENTRAL BANKS

Central banks are sticking with the line that the spike in inflation is temporary — European Central Bank board member Isabel Schnabel said on Monday she was happy with the broad-based rise in inflation.

But as market- and consumer-based measures of inflation expectations rise, gas prices will be on central banks’ radar.

“If we have higher inflation, transitory or structural, and have slower growth – it will be a very tricky situation for markets and central banks to assess, navigate and communicate,” said Piet Haines Christiansen, chief strategist at Danske Bank.

This week’s central bank meetings could test policymakers’ resolve. The Bank of England meeting on Thursday is in particular focus, given UK inflation has just hit a nine-year high.

With UK producer price inflation soaring, shipping costs showing little sign of cooling, commodity prices higher up and job vacancies tipping 1 million, there is a growing chance that higher prices will stick around for longer, said Susannah Streeter, senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

“If they do, more (BoE) members may move quickly to vote for a rate rise sooner than expected next year, but it would be an unpopular course of action with looming tax rises already hard to digest for many consumers,” she said.

                         4/ STATE BAILOUTS

Britain is considering offering state-backed loans to energy firms after big suppliers requested support to cover the cost of taking on customers from companies that went bust under the impact of gas prices. One firm, Bulb, is reportedly seeking a bailout.

France meanwhile plans one-off 100 euro ($118) payments to millions of households to help with energy bills.

“The story emerging from the UK energy sector will soon be more relevant to the European market than Evergrande,” said Althea Spinozzi, senior fixed income Strategist at Saxo Bank.

And in a week packed with central bank meetings, she added that markets were “right to fret.”

5/COMPANIES

Spain shocked the utility sector last week by redirecting billions of euros in energy companies’ profits to consumers and capping increases in gas prices. Revenue hits at Iberdrola and Endesa were estimated by RBC at one billion euros and shares in the companies sold off heavily.

Since the move, investors have fretted about contagion to other countries, Morgan Stanley said. While seeing those fears as overdone, the bank acknowledged there was a risk of margin squeezes at European utilities in coming months.

Sector shares are down for the third week straight.

* * *

British energy firms fear collapse as Europe’s gas crisis sees prices surge 250%.

– Britain’s energy industry could be headed for a significant shake-up, industry insiders have warned, as countries all over Europe grapple with an unprecedented crisis in the power sector.

– Wholesale gas prices have spiked across the region, with the U.K. being hit particularly hard.

*

London — Britain’s energy industry could be headed for a significant shake-up, industry insiders have warned, as countries all over Europe grapple with an unprecedented crisis in the power sector.

Wholesale gas prices have spiked across the region, with the U.K. being hit particularly hard.

The front-month gas price at the Dutch TTF hub, a European benchmark for natural gas trading, gained on Monday to trade at 73.150 euros ($85.69) per megawatt-hour, hovering close to the record high seen last week.

Since January, the contract has risen more than 250%.

In the U.K., day-ahead energy prices for Monday reached an average of 291.18 euros per megawatt-hour, according to energy analysis firm LCP Enact. However, the maximum price for the U.K. on Monday could be as high as 1,083.78 euros per megawatt-hour, LCP Enact’s analysis showed.

                         Impact for energy firms

Robert Buckley, head of relationship development at Cornwall Insight, told CNBC that the crisis was being caused by a “cocktail of pretty potent things” that were outside of suppliers’ control.

These included strong competition for natural gas deliveries between Europe and Asia, some outages at U.S. production facilities, and a tightening of EU carbon market rules, as well as various other factors.

“All suppliers will be finding it very tough at the moment,” Buckley said. “Some of them are bigger and more resilient than others. But scale doesn’t automatically equal resilience.”

He added that “it looks like it’s going to get worse before it gets better” in terms of suppliers leaving the British electricity and gas market.

″[Suppliers are] caught between this rapture of the rising energy price wholesale market and the default tariff cap, and depending on who you believe, this is anywhere up to £200, £250 [$273, $341] below what a market-related cost would be at the moment, so that’s 20% of the total bill,” he said, referring to a cap on consumer energy prices in Britain. “That’s -20% of gross margins. Very few [companies] can sustain that for any length of time.”

Meanwhile, Bill Bullen, founder of U.K. supplier Utilita Energy, warned that surging wholesale prices would inevitably lead to more insolvencies in the energy sector.

“We’re heading back to an oligopoly at this rate and going backwards,” he said in an email Monday.

According to a report from Cornwall Insight, in the fourth quarter of 2010, the six largest energy firms supplied 99.5% of the domestic energy market in the U.K. By the second quarter of 2021, that figure had fallen to 69.1%.

“I wonder how it will look at the end of Q3 2021,” Bullen said.

Start-up Bulb, the country’s sixth-largest supplier, is seeking a bailout, while four smaller competitors recently ceased trading, the BBC reported.

According to industry body OGUK, wholesale energy prices have surged with a 70% rise since August alone. “OGUK predicts that UK North Sea output will roughly halve by 2027 unless new fields are opened, making the U.K. even more reliant on imports,” Will Webster, the organization’s energy policy manager, told CNBC via email.

A spokesperson for British energy regulator Ofgem told CNBC in an emailed statement, “This is a global issue … Ofgem is working closely with government to manage the wider implications of the global gas price increase.”

                         Political fallout

Governments are keen to take action to stop the crisis hitting consumers too hard.

The British government is considering bailout loans for energy suppliers, according to local media reports. Business Minister Kwasi Kwarteng met with British energy companies on Monday, in what he said was an effort to “ensure that any energy supplier failures cause the least amount of disruption for consumers.”

Seeking to reassure the public Sunday, Prime Minister Boris Johnson described the pricing crisis as “temporary,” Bloomberg reported.

The U.K. has limits on how much suppliers are able to charge consumers for energy, with price caps reviewed by the government every six months.

In a note Monday, Eurasia Group warned the Continent’s soaring energy prices were also beginning to have political ramifications across the wider region.

Spain’s government released a decree this week to cap retail energy prices. Eurasia analysts speculated that if more EU member states imitate Spain, prioritizing cheap energy above the green transition, the EU’s credibility as a climate leader could be damaged.

“If Madrid’s actions find imitators across the EU this winter, the bloc’s efforts to push for more ambitious climate action at the upcoming global talks in November may suffer,” they said in Monday’s note.

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