Austria. Il Cancelliere Kurz chiede elezioni anticipate.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-05-19.

«Non ci sono alternative …. con la Fpoe una collaborazione è impossibile, i socialdemocratici non condividono le nostre posizioni e gli altri partiti sono troppo piccoli …. Quando è troppo è troppo …. La Fpoe danneggia il nostro Paese. E’ in contrasto con il principio del servizio per il Paese»

*

«Ho chiesto al presidente della Repubblica di convocare il prima possibile elezioni anticipate»

*

«Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz has asked for a snap election after his Vice-Chancellor, Heinz-Christian Strache, resigned over a corruption scandal»

*

«The video appears to show him discussing government contracts with an alleged Russian investor»

* * * * * * *

Lo scandalo non è tanto di corruzione economica, quanto piuttosto di corruzione politica.

La chiave di volta è nell’ultima frase riportata:

«discussing government contracts with an alleged Russian investor»

*

Quando si stipula una alleanza, specie poi se di governo, i patti devono essere rispettati, costi quello che costi.

Quella poi di contrattare un novo accordo di governo con il primo (la prima) venuto/a e per di più stranier0/a è cosa fuori dal mondo.

*

Le elezioni non si preannunciano facili: i partiti politici sono frammentati. L’Övp è proiettato al 34%. ma molto verosimilmente potrebbe arrivare ad allearsi ad una Spd proiettata al 27%.

Vedremo nel prosieguo quanta ragionevolezza abbiano i politici austriaci.

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Ansa. 2019-05-18. Austria: Kurz, votare il prima possibile

VIENNA, 18 MAG – “Ho chiesto al presidente della Repubblica di convocare il prima possibile elezioni anticipate”.
Lo ha detto il cancelliere austriaco Sebastian Kurz. “Non ci sono alternative – ha aggiunto -, con la Fpoe una collaborazione è impossibile, i socialdemocratici non condividono le nostre posizioni e gli altri partiti sono troppo piccoli”. “Quando è troppo è troppo”, ha aggiunto. “La Fpoe danneggia il nostro Paese. E’ in contrasto con il principio del servizio per il Paese”, ha aggiunto Kurz.

*

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Bbc. 2019-05-19. Austria chancellor calls for snap election after corruption scandal

Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz has asked for a snap election after his Vice-Chancellor, Heinz-Christian Strache, resigned over a corruption scandal.

Mr Kurz’s centre-right People’s Party is in government with Mr Strache’s far-right Freedom Party.

The Freedom Party leader stepped down after secret video footage emerged.

The video appears to show him discussing government contracts with an alleged Russian investor.

Mr Strache blamed his actions on alcohol and acting like a “teenager”, saying his behaviour had been “stupid” and “irresponsible”, and that he was leaving to avoid further damage to the government.

“I have suggested to the president of the republic that new elections be carried out, at the earliest possible date,” Mr Kurz said.

“After yesterday’s video, I must say quite honestly: Enough is enough,” he said.

“The serious part of this was the attitude towards abuse of power, towards dealing with taxpayers’ money, towards the media in this country,” Mr Kurz said, adding that he had been personally insulted in the footage.

Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen said a snap election was necessary after Mr Strache stepped down.

He said he had talked about this with Mr Kurz and that they would discuss next steps on Sunday.

A crowd of thousands with placards and banners have been rallying on the square outside Mr Kurz’s office, chanting “Snap elections now!”

Mr Kurz has attempted to distance himself from past scandals surrounding the Freedom Party, mostly ones involving party officials and anti-Semitism or racism, but political opponents called for him to respond to the latest revelations.

“This is the tip of the iceberg,” Thomas Drozda, from the opposition Social Democrats, told national broadcaster ORF.

“I expect the chancellor, who evidently has known about this video for 48 hours, and that his coalition partner is drowning in a swamp of corruption, to speak and explain his position.”

Mr Kurz said that this was not the first time he had had difficulties with the party.

“Even if I didn’t express myself publicly at the time, there were many situations that I found difficult to swallow,” he said.

What’s in the video?

The secretly-filmed video shows Mr Strache and Johann Gudenus – also a Freedom Party politician – talking to a woman who claims to be a wealthy Russian citizen looking to invest in Austria.

The meeting reportedly took place at a villa on the Spanish island of Ibiza, in a private room with both politicians relaxing on sofas, smoking and drinking.

In the footage, the woman says she is the niece of a powerful Russian oligarch. She offers to buy a 50% stake in Austria’s Kronen-Zeitung newspaper and switch its editorial position to support the Freedom Party.

In exchange, Mr Strache said he could award her public contracts, explaining that he wanted to “build a media landscape like [Victor] Orban”, a reference to Hungary’s authoritarian prime minister.

The vice-chancellor also speculates that the Russian’s takeover of Kronen-Zeitung could boost support for the party to as much as 34%.

“If you take over the Kronen Zeitung three weeks before the election and get us into first place, then we can talk about everything,” Mr Strache said.

As part of the deal, he suggests the Russian woman “set up a company like Strabag”, the Austrian construction firm.

“All the government orders that Strabag gets now, [you] would get,” he continues.

Mr Strache also names several journalists who would have to be “pushed” from the newspaper, and five other “new people whom we will build up”.

Unione Europea. Orban abbandona Weber al suo destino.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-05-08.

«Orban ha spiegato di aver cambiato posizione quando Weber aveva detto che non voleva diventare presidente della Commissione con i voti degli ungheresi»

*

«Weber has said he does not want to be commission president with the votes of the Hungarians»

*

I tedeschi sono sempre stati abilissimi diplomatici. L’apice fu raggiunto dal Cancelliere Theobald Bethmann-Hollweg, quello che nel 1914 dichiarò che i trattati erano “pezzi di carta”  e che “la necessità non conosce legge“.

Benissimo.

Così la Germania ha litigato con la Polonia, la Romania ed adesso si è conquistata un altro nemico nell’Ungheria. Con l’Italia è un epsilon piccolo a piacere più prudente, ma non usa certo guanti di velluto.

Ma queste quattro nazioni votano nel Consiglio Europeo, che è poi quello che deve proporre i nomi del Presidente e dei Commissari della Commissione Europea.

Gli ungheresi ben difficilmente voteranno per Herr Weber.

Poi, il partito popolare europeo perde i 14 eurodeputati del Fidesz, che verosimilmente potrebbero confluire nel gruppo di Mr Salvini.

Qualcuno regali ad Herr Weber questo libro:

Dale Carnegie

L’ arte di conquistar gli amici e il dominio sugli altri

Bompiani.

*

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EU Observer. 2019-05-07. Orban withdraws support for Weber’s presidency bid

Hungary’s prime minister Viktor Orban said on Monday his Fidesz party no longer supports Manfred Weber, the European People’s Party (EPP)’s lead candidate to be the EU Commission’s next president. The European People’s Party and Orban agreed to suspend the Fidesz’s membership last month. “Weber has said he does not want to be commission president with the votes of the Hungarians,” Orban said, describing this as an “insult” to Hungarians.

*

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Ansa. 2019-05-07. Orban, Fidesz non sosterrà più Weber (Ppe)

BERLINO – Il primo ministro ungherese Viktor Orban ed il suo partito Fidesz non sosterranno più il candidato del Partito popolare europeo (Ppe), Manfred Weber, alla guida della Commissione Ue. “Stiamo cercando un nuovo candidato”, ha detto Orban a Budapest in una conferenza stampa congiunta con Vice-cancelliere Heinz-Christian Strache (Fpoe), secondo quanto riferisce l’agenza APA. Orban ha spiegato di aver cambiato posizione quando Weber aveva detto che non voleva diventare presidente della Commissione con i voti degli ungheresi. “Se qualcuno offende un Paese in quel modo, il primo ministro del Paese offeso non può certo sostenerne la candidatura”, ha detto Orban. Fidesz è stato recentemente sospeso dal Ppe. 

Austria. A giorni ufficializzato il Governo ÖVP – FPÖ. Kurz Cancelliere.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-12-15.

«Austria’s far-right was reportedly set Friday to secure the interior and defence ministries as coalition talks entered the final straight, with negotiators hopeful for a deal later in the day.»

*

«The agreement will crown Sebastian Kurz, 31, as the world’s youngest leader at the head of a coalition of his conservative People’s Party (OeVP) with the nationalist Freedom Party (FPOe).»

*

«the FPOe …. is rare in western Europe in having translated its ballot box success into real power. Last year it came close to winning the largely ceremonial presidency.»

*

«FPOe chief Heinz-Christian Strache, 48, is set to become deputy chancellor. According to Der Standard’s online edition, the party will also secure the interior and the defence ministries»

*

«A seasoned diplomat close to the FPOe, although not a member, is set to be named foreign minister»

*

«The OeVP will obtain the finance, economy and justice ministries, amongst others»

*

«The FPOe remains fiercely nationalist …. wants EU sanctions on Moscow lifted and says Islam is not part of Austria.»

*

«In 2016 Strache called German Chancellor Angela Merkel “the most dangerous woman in Europe” over her open-door migrants policy, and said that “civil war is not improbable in the medium term” because of immigration»

*

«Kurz said on Thursday that the “pro-European” stance of the incoming government “from my point of view has been secured”»

*

«One notable agreement to have emerged so far from the coalition talks is a pledge to scrap a law that would have banned smoking from all bars and restaurants from May 2018»

*

«- Looser labor laws, including the possibility of working up to 12 hours a day, though that’s potentially divisive for the Freedom Party with its working-class base.

– Scrapping a smoking ban in restaurants and bars that was due to take full effect next year. It’s a nod to Strache, who’s a smoker.

– Cutting the share of income and social-security taxes to 40 percent of economic output from 43 percent, while keeping the budget balanced.»

* * * * * * * *

Sembrerebbe che a giorni possa essere annunciato il Governo del Cancelliere Sebastian Kurz, appoggiato dal People’s Party (OeVP) e dal Freedom Party (FPOe).

Sembrerebbe anche che siano intenzionati a mantenere le promesse elettorali che hanno fatto:

– taglio delle tasse e dei contributi sociali;

– zero immigrazione;

– deregolamentazione del lavoro;

– abolizione della legge che avrebbe vietato il fumo nei ristoranti e nei bar;

– posizione sequenziale in seno al Concilio Europeo, con opposizione al mantenimento delle sanzione verso la Russia.

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→ Digital Journal. 2017-12-15. Austrian coalition talks in ‘final slalom’

Austria’s far-right was reportedly set Friday to secure the interior and defence ministries as coalition talks entered the final straight, with negotiators hopeful for a deal later in the day.

The agreement will crown Sebastian Kurz, 31, as the world’s youngest leader at the head of a coalition of his conservative People’s Party (OeVP) with the nationalist Freedom Party (FPOe).

Gernot Bluemel, an OeVP negotiator, said that he was “hopeful that we can reach a deal today (Friday)” and, in a skiing analogy, that the talks were in the “final slalom”.

“I can’t promise anything but I am confident,” he said.

Television cameras and photographers were gathered at the grand Palais Epstein on Vienna’s opulent Ringstrasse boulevard where the talks were taking place waiting for an announcement.

Kurz’s party came first in elections on October 15 after he rebranded the staid OeVP as his own youthful personal “movement”, promising to get tough on immigration and lower taxes.

The nationalist, anti-immigration Freedom Party came third with 26 percent of the vote.

The rightwards shift came after both parties stoked concerns about immigration and fatigue with the previous unhappy “grand coalition” of the OeVP with the centre-left Social Democrats (SPOe).

This was mirrored elsewhere, with Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party now the second-largest in the Netherlands, France’s National Front in the runoff for the presidency in May and Alternative for Germany (AfD) entering the Bundestag.

– Real power –

But the FPOe, founded by former Nazis in the 1950s, is rare in western Europe in having translated its ballot box success into real power. Last year it came close to winning the largely ceremonial presidency.

FPOe chief Heinz-Christian Strache, 48, is set to become deputy chancellor. According to Der Standard’s online edition, the party will also secure the interior and the defence ministries.

A seasoned diplomat close to the FPOe, although not a member, is set to be named foreign minister. The OeVP will obtain the finance, economy and justice ministries, amongst others, Der Standard said.

The last time the FPOe entered government, in 2000 under controversial then-leader Joerg Haider, now dead, Austria was briefly ostracised within the European Union.

This time though the reaction is likely to be much more muted with the FPOe seen as having mellowed and with Europe more inured to right-wing parties.

The FPOe remains fiercely nationalist, however. The party, which has a partnership with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ruling party, wants EU sanctions on Moscow lifted and says Islam is not part of Austria.

In 2016 Strache called German Chancellor Angela Merkel “the most dangerous woman in Europe” over her open-door migrants policy, and said that “civil war is not improbable in the medium term” because of immigration.

The FPOe is also ambivalent about the European Union but Kurz said on Thursday that the “pro-European” stance of the incoming government “from my point of view has been secured”.

One notable agreement to have emerged so far from the coalition talks is a pledge to scrap a law that would have banned smoking from all bars and restaurants from May 2018, despite a widespread outcry.

If they seal a deal, separate meetings of the two parties on Saturday were due to give their approval before Kurz and Strache give a news conference. The government would then be sworn in next week.

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→ Bloomberg. 2017-12-15. Austria Shifts Right as Kurz Forges Government With Nationalists

– World’s youngest leader personifies European rightward shift

– Says a coalition with Freedom Party is on home stretch

*

Austria’s 31-year-old next leader is closing in on a pact with nationalists to form a government that reflects Europe’s anti-immigration groundswell.

An agreement in Vienna, which could come as early as Friday, would allow Sebastian Kurz to become the world’s youngest head of government and return the populist Freedom Party to power as junior partner for the first time since 2005.

Austria’s drift to the right is part of Europe’s shifting politics after a year of populist challenges at the polls, including an anti-immigration party that drew voters away from Angela Merkel. The German chancellor called the Freedom Party’s strong showing a “major challenge” after the election in neighboring Austria in October.

“We’re on home stretch,” Kurz, head of the People’s Party and acting foreign minister, told reporters on Thursday. “I’m very optimistic that we can reach our goal to complete the coalition talks before Christmas.”

The Freedom Party’s imminent return may lead Austria to tighten immigration policy still further and heralds tax cuts, looser labor laws and more conservative social policies. While it won’t set Austria on a path to leave the European Union or the euro, the new government may make it a more awkward member state than before.

Commitment to EU

President Alexander Van der Bellen, who defeated a Freedom Party candidate in a runoff last year, has urged Kurz to form a government committed to the EU and human rights. While some key policies, including taxes and spending, remain unclear, projects confirmed by Kurz and Freedom Party leader Heinz-Christian Strache include:

– Looser labor laws, including the possibility of working up to 12 hours a day, though that’s potentially divisive for the Freedom Party with its working-class base.

– Scrapping a smoking ban in restaurants and bars that was due to take full effect next year. It’s a nod to Strache, who’s a smoker.

– Cutting the share of income and social-security taxes to 40 percent of economic output from 43 percent, while keeping the budget balanced. 

Any deal also is likely to include continuity: Kurz’s party, one of two that governed Austria for most of the time since World War II, is set to retain the finance and economy ministries as well as control of EU policy.

The Freedom Party is likely to name the foreign minister and also is demanding the interior ministry, a key department for domestic security and border control.

Filling cabinet posts will be the final item in the coalition talks, making them prone to last-minute changes. Another potential stumbling block is the Freedom Party’s demand to expand the use of referendums to make laws, which many among Kurz’s conservatives view skeptically.

Austria. Proseguono bene i colloqui di Kurz con l’FPÖ.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-11-27.

L’Austria di Herr Sebastin Kurz sta avviandosi sulla strada di un governo ÖVP ed FPÖ.

Sulla immigrazione illegale sarebbe già stato raggiunto un accordo di massima: tolleranza zero.

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«Unlike in Germany, Austrian coalition negotiations have progressed much further. The FPÖ insists on an “equal footing” in the talks, while the ÖVP wants to have everything signed, sealed and delivered before the Christmas break»

*

«When it comes to the future composition of the Austrian government, there is a clear two-thirds approval for an ÖVP-FPÖ coalition. By contrast, about one-third of the population is against it.»

*

«Outgoing Chancellor Christian Kern, for whom until recently the FPÖ was an acceptable coalition partner, has now made a U-turn in view of his imminent opposition role»

*

«In one of the five major negotiating chapters, the one dealing with “security, order and homeland security”, the coalition negotiations have already largely reached a consensus.»

*

«the framework for a minimum income should be restricted; benefits in kind instead of financial subsidies, recognised refugees should in the future be allowed to apply for citizenship only after ten years, like all other immigrants, and not after six»

*

«there is a wish to reduce the so-called illegal migration to zero and for legally convicted asylum seekers there should be no residence consolidation»

*

«For the sensitive foreign office, an interesting candidate has emerged, the Middle East and international law expert Karin Kneissl»

*

«While the FPÖ is not as keen to hurry with the negotiations, the ÖVP insist on putting an end to the talks before Christmas.»

* * * * * * *

Da quanto sta trapelando, sempre poi che si concretizzi nella formazione di un governo, la posizione di Herr Kurz e, quindi, dell’Austria in seno alla Commissione Europea sarebbe agli antipodi di quanto seguito nella pregressa legislatura. Sembra quindi molto verosimile che l’Austria potrebbe costituire un grande problema per il futuro Governo tedesco. Sempre che la Germania non torni alle urne.

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Euractiv. 2017-11-24. Austria makes progress in government formation

Unlike in Germany, Austrian coalition negotiations have progressed much further. The FPÖ insists on an “equal footing” in the talks, while the ÖVP wants to have everything signed, sealed and delivered before the Christmas break.

*

One month after the election and in the middle of the coalition negotiations, the Austrians stand by their voting behaviour. Polls published at the weekend see the new People’s Party (ÖVP) stable in its election results and at the top of the party ranking. The SPÖ and the FPÖ are also unchanged in the subsequent places and, depending on the institute, recorded a result of plus/minus one percent compared to the election day.

Only the Pilz List, whose top candidate had to retire due to sexual assault allegations, experienced a big drop in polls. More than half of their voters turned their back on Pilz’s party. The Greens, on the other hand, would be back in parliament with a comfortable six percent.

Left camp will oppose centre-right

When it comes to the future composition of the Austrian government, there is a clear two-thirds approval for an ÖVP-FPÖ coalition. By contrast, about one-third of the population is against it.

And here, as was the case in 2000, resistance is forming on the left wing. Several organisations have already held or announced first protest rallies.

Outgoing Chancellor Christian Kern, for whom until recently the FPÖ was an acceptable coalition partner, has now made a U-turn in view of his imminent opposition role. In interviews, he finds that “now that the [two parties] are coming together, that is a walking invitation to demonstrations”.

This refers to FPÖ deputies who are members of German nationalist fraternities. And Kern already suggests that although he would not go out on the street himself, “in any case, he would pick up his children after the demonstration.”

In one of the five major negotiating chapters, the one dealing with “security, order and homeland security”, the coalition negotiations have already largely reached a consensus.

Among other things, the framework for a minimum income should be restricted; benefits in kind instead of financial subsidies, recognised refugees should in the future be allowed to apply for citizenship only after ten years, like all other immigrants, and not after six. Furthermore, there is a wish to reduce the so-called illegal migration to zero and for legally convicted asylum seekers there should be no residence consolidation.

FPÖ seeks not only the interior ministry but also the ministries of finance, economy and foreign affairs but such claims are considered as exaggerated.

Kneissl instead of Hofer for Foreign Minister

For the sensitive foreign office, an interesting candidate has emerged, the Middle East and international law expert Karin Kneissl. She was put forward by FPÖ chief Heinz-Christian Strache, who can exclude former presidential candidate Norbert Hofer from the race with this move. Kneissl was already active in the foreign ministry in the 1990s.

While the FPÖ is not as keen to hurry with the negotiations, the ÖVP insist on putting an end to the talks before Christmas. This is connected to the next big election round as Lower Austria will go to the polls for its regional parliament.

For the first time, Governor Johanna Mikl-Leitner wants to secure a strong position of the ÖVP. Therefore the aim is to ensure an election campaign (which will officially start in the new calendar year) “without outside interference”.

Austria. A sorpresa l’FPÖ sarebbe in testa al 28.5%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-10-14.

Delle elezioni politiche che si terranno domani in Austria abbiamo già diffusamente parlato.

Austria. Elezioni che influenzeranno l’EU e l’euro. – Bloomberg.

Austria. Scoperta la macchina del fango della SPÖ. Con le mani nella marmellata.

Austria. Il 15 ottobre elezioni politiche.

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A quanto sembrerebbe, notizia però da prendersi con enorme buon senso e freddo distacco, la scoperta della macchina del fango della SPÖ avrebbe avuto un effetto sistemico sulle previsioni elettorali.

GMX pubblica il seguente articolo:

Exklusive Umfrage zur Nationalratswahl: Christian Kern am kompetentesten, Sebastian Kurz liebster Direktkandidat

«In einer aktuellen Umfrage von “Meinungsraum.at” exklusiv für GMX.at liefern sich Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP) und Heinz-Christian Strache (FPÖ) ein Kopf-an-Kopf-Rennen. Noch immer wissen fast 20 Prozent der Wahlberechtigten nicht, welcher Partei sie am Sonntag ihre Stimme geben werden.

Eine aktuelle Wahlbefragung von “Meinungsraum.at” im Auftrag von GMX.at offenbart, wie unsicher ein großer Teil der Österreicherinnen und Österreicher noch ist, was die Wahlentscheidung angeht.

Laut aktueller Hochrechnung könnte die ÖVP zwischen 23 und 30 Prozent erhalten und die FPÖ zwischen 25 und 32 Prozent der Stimmen»

*

L’SPÖ sarebbe attestata dal 17% al 23%, l’ÖVP dal 23% al 30%, mentre l’FPÖ avrebbe dal 25% al 32% dei voti. Gli astenuti sarebbero previsti attorno al 20%.

Come ben si evidenzia dal prospetto numerico, secondo questo ultimo sondaggio l’FPÖ sarebbe nettamente in testa.

Se l’SPÖ al 20% non stupisce più di tanto, denunciando una perdita di 6.8 punti percentuali, lascia invece molto perplessi l’aver quotato l’ÖVP al 26.5%, sicuramente in risalita dal 24% delle passate elezioni, ma con una perdita di sette punti percentuali rispetto alle polls passate.

Contrasta anche visibilmente che con sondaggi effettuati nello stesso giorno, il 9 ottobre, Meinungsraum stimi l’ÖVP al 26.5%, mentre la Research Affairs la quoti al 33%.

* * * * * *

Non abbiamo alcun elemento razionale per discernere quale delle due previsioni sia la più accurata. Di certo le previsioni della Meinungsraum potrebbero anche prospettare una cancelleria conquistata dall’FPÖ: sarebbe un cataclisma in seno alla Commissione Europea.

Tanto, domani sera avremo il responso delle urne, anche se gli “spogli alla austriaca” non godono fiducia incondizionata.

Austria. Il 15 ottobre elezioni politiche.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-09-17.

Con le elezioni politiche austriache del 15 ottobre terminerà la kermesse elettorale europea.

Il quadro politico è quelle endemico in Europa: partiti socialisti in piena devoluzione  e nessuna formazione politica in grado di raggiungere la maggioranza governativa.

Fare coalizioni in questa situazione risulterà essere non facile.

I sondaggi prospetterebbero la maggioranza relativa all’ÖVP, Partito popolare di centro-destra, con circa il 30% dei suffragi.

Il partito socialdemocratico (SPÖ) e l’FPÖ si attesterebbero ambedue attorno al 25%.

Potrebbe quindi sembrare verosimile che alla fine Herr Kurz possa scegliere il membro junior di governo, secondo opportunità. Questa scelta potrebbe essere determinante sull’indirizzo politico austriaco in seno all’Unione Europea.

Di certo, guardando la grafica, dovrebbe risultare evidente come l’Austria abbia operato una significativa opzione verso la destra, contenendo verdi e socialisti ai loro minimi storici. Sarà difficile che Herr Kurz possa ignorare questo messaggio popolare.

Si dovrebbe però notare come alla fine di questo anno elettorale in tutta Europa la componente socialista apparirebbe estromessa dai governi. È del tutto ovvio e naturale che a questa scomparsa dai governi non faccia un seguito immediato la rivoluzione politica che molti si sarebbero attesa. Tutto matura con il tempo.

Si deve però notare come la composizione politica della Commissione Europea sia mutata profondamente.

Se è vero che Francia e Germania cercheranno di operare in modo concertato verso la formazione di uno stato europeo, è altrettanto vero che non sarà facile che riescano ad ottenere costantemente la maggioranza dei voti in seno la Commissione. Nel caso specifico dell’Austria, è alquanto difficile prevedere come voterà Herr Kurz.

Si preannuncia un periodo di turbolenze politiche.

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→ Voto Finish. 2017-09-12. Elezioni in Austria, la situazione a 40 giorni dal voto

Mancano 40 giorni alle elezioni anticipate in Austria del 15 ottobre, e la campagna elettorale sta entrando nella sua fase cruciale.

Il panorama politico del paese è cambiato radicalmente nello scorso mese di maggio, quando Sebastian Kurz, ministro degli Esteri nell’attuale governo di grande coalizione, è stato acclamato leader del Partito popolare di centro-destra (ÖVP) al posto dell’uscente Reinhold Mitterlehner. L’equilibrio politico che sembrava essersi attestato, con la destra radicale (FPÖ) in largo vantaggio nonostante la sconfitta di misure alle elezioni presidenziali dello scorso anno, è improvvisamente crollato. L’ÖVP nei sondaggi è tornato a salire ben sopra il 30%, a percentuali che non raggiungeva da dieci anni. Kurz ha accumulato in questi anni da ministro degli Esteri (e soprattutto a partire dalla crisi dei rifugiati del 2015) un capitale politico ed elettorale consistente, assecondando le opinioni della maggioranza della popolazione: il suo vantaggio nei sondaggi dipende tutto da lì. Se non commetterà errori nella sua prima campagna elettorale da leader, si prepara a diventare il nuovo e più giovane cancelliere della storia austriaca.

La vera sfida è quella per il partito che arriverà secondo, provando ad accreditarsi come partner di coalizione per l’ÖVP. Il partito socialdemocratico (SPÖ) del cancelliere in carica Christian Kern, e l’FPÖ guidato da Heinz-Christian Strache sono ormai da mesi appaiati nei sondaggi intorno al 25% dei voti. I socialdemocratici sono consapevoli di essere alle prese con una campagna elettorale tra le più dure degli ultimi anni. Kern, tuttavia, confida nei dibattiti televisivi per spostare l’attenzione dell’elettorato sui temi del lavoro, dell’economia e dell’istruzione, su cui i suoi due sfidanti appaiono meno preparati.

Ma le elezioni austriache dovranno essere seguite anche, forse soprattutto, dopo il 15 ottobre. Tutte le ipotesi sulla formazione del nuovo governo sono infatti sul campo. La coalizione tra Partito popolare e destra radicale sarebbe l’opzione più coesa, in particolare sul tema dell’immigrazione; ma l’FPÖ rischierebbe di vedere ulteriormente vampirizzato il proprio consenso a vantaggio di Kurz, che da cancelliere potrebbe incamerare personalmente i consensi derivanti dai controlli alle frontiere. Resta perciò aperta anche la strada di una coalizione tra socialdemocratici e destra radicale, anche laddove l’OVP diventasse il primo partito; SPÖ e FPÖ, del resto, già governano insieme dal 2015 la regione del Burgenland. Paradossalmente, ad oggi, l’opzione meno probabile risulta essere quella che ha governato l’Austria quasi ininterrottamente negli ultimi trent’anni, ovvero la grande coalizione classica tra socialdemocratici e popolari.

Poco spazio per gli outsider. I Verdi, che candidano a cancelliere l’eurodeputata Ulrike Lunacek, sono reduci da una scissione interna che ha portato alla fondazione di un altro partito guidato dal fuoriuscito Peter Pilz. Il partito liberale ed europeista Neos dovrebbe confermare la propria pattuglia di deputati ottenendo tra il 4 e il 5% dei voti. Anche in Austria, infine, scende in campo un attore comico, Roland Düringer, con il suo partito anti-establishment G!LT, che sceglierà i suoi candidati al Parlamento tramite sorteggio.