Eurocrati pronti a spaccare l’Unione sul rule-of-law. Piano B. Europa senza Polonia ed Ungheria.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-12-07.

«The Plan B option is a “fall-back” if Hungary and Poland don’t relent over their opposition, Weber said»

«This is key moment in our history, how much is sovereignty worth, a billion, several dozen billion, several hundred billion euros? For us it’s priceless»

*

«EU readies Plan B to skirt Poland and Hungary on Virus Fund»

«Budapest and Warsaw oppose rule of law conditions on funding»

«European Union leaders are readying a back-up option that can cut budget holdouts Hungary and Poland out of a multi-billion dollar stimulus fund and still hold them to rule-of-law conditions they adamantly oppose»

«The eastern European nations’ leadership dug in on Wednesday against their 25 EU peers at a meeting of government envoys in Brussels. They continued to wield their veto over the aid package aimed at fueling a post-pandemic recovery as the clock ticks down to the end of the year, when a no-deal will trigger an emergency budget for the entire bloc»

«It would be to cut Hungary and Poland out of the 750 billion-euro ($908 billion) coronavirus-rescue fund, effectively stripping them of the power to veto the deal»

«Se non rispettano le regole del nostro gioco a livello europeo, allora lo faremo senza di loro»

«So they must be aware that this can be a big problem for their own countries»

«EU leaders will hold a summit on Dec. 10, which is now the most likely venue where they’ll try to resolve the standoff that also affects the next seven-year budget»

«Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said his country could cope with a potential exclusion from the virus relief fund because it can raise debt on financial markets cheaply»

«The reconstruction fund is essentially constructed from credit …. Yes, it’s a low-interest loan, but today we can also place a very low-interest loan on the market — by issuing bonds.»

«Poland’s borrowing costs have dropped after the country’s central bank slashed interest rates to nearly zero and launched a bond-buying program in the spring to help mitigate the impact of the pandemic lockdown. …. The yield on the benchmark 10-year zloty bond now stands at 1.27%»

«the lack of an EU backstop could hit the zloty and forint and drive borrowing costs higher»

«The Plan B option is a “fall-back” if Hungary and Poland don’t relent over their opposition, Weber said»

* * * * * * *

Ungheresi e Polacchi hanno vissuto sulla loro pelle cinquanta anni di dittatura comunista, ed hanno versato il loro sangue per cacciarla via.

Se è vero che i liberal socialisti sono i nipotini del comunismo, sarebbe altrettanto vero costatare che abbiano tempra decomposta rispetto quella dei loro antenati.

*

---

EU Readies Plan B to Skirt Poland and Hungary on Virus Fund.

Hungary and Poland are ‘walking very tight rope,’ Spain says

Budapest and Warsaw oppose rule of law conditions on funding

*

European Union leaders are readying a back-up option that can cut budget holdouts Hungary and Poland out of a multi-billion dollar stimulus fund and still hold them to rule-of-law conditions they adamantly oppose.

The eastern European nations’ leadership dug in on Wednesday against their 25 EU peers at a meeting of government envoys in Brussels. They continued to wield their veto over the aid package aimed at fueling a post-pandemic recovery as the clock ticks down to the end of the year, when a no-deal will trigger an emergency budget for the entire bloc.

With Warsaw and Budapest saying they can do without the money and the latter ready to allow EU states to skirt the need for unanimous approval via inter-governmental agreements, officials in the bloc are now focusing on what they’re calling “Plan B.”

It would be to cut Hungary and Poland out of the 750 billion-euro ($908 billion) coronavirus-rescue fund, effectively stripping them of the power to veto the deal. Passing the EU’s $2.2 trillion spending plan that way, including the 2021-2027 budget, would offer a way to channel funds to hard-hit regions without delay.

“If they don’t respect the rules in our game on the European level then we do it without them,” Manfred Weber, the head of the European People’s Party caucus in the European Parliament, told Bloomberg TV Thursday. “So they must be aware that this can be a big problem for their own countries.”

EU leaders will hold a summit on Dec. 10, which is now the most likely venue where they’ll try to resolve the standoff that also affects the next seven-year budget.

With Poland and Hungary both under rule-of-law probes in the EU, they’re potentially exposed if no deal is struck. They could face a lose-lose situation in which they’d forfeit a combined 180 billion euro ($218 billion) from the multi-year budget and the relief fund while still being subject to rule-of-law oversight.

Still, they remained defiant. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said his country could cope with a potential exclusion from the virus relief fund because it can raise debt on financial markets cheaply.

“The reconstruction fund is essentially constructed from credit,” Morawiecki said answering online questions late on Wednesday. “Yes, it’s a low-interest loan, but today we can also place a very low-interest loan on the market — by issuing bonds.”

Borrowing Billions

Poland’s borrowing costs have dropped after the country’s central bank slashed interest rates to nearly zero and launched a bond-buying program in the spring to help mitigate the impact of the pandemic lockdown.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year zloty bond now stands at 1.27%. That compares with negative borrowing costs for loans that would be extended from the EU’s recovery fund based on current yield levels.

Still, if the EU shuts off the taps, it would require the government in Warsaw to borrow “tens of billions of euros” in the next six years, said Mateusz Milewski, a debt trader at MBank SA in Warsaw. And while neither Poland nor Hungary are in immediate financial danger, the lack of an EU backstop could hit the zloty and forint and drive borrowing costs higher.

“If Poland were to cover the lack of EU funds with its own issuance, we would have to deal with considerable leap in yields,” Milewski said.

Veto Rights

Hungary has also financially positioned itself for the standoff. The government sold 2.5 billion euros worth of Eurobonds last month, taking its annual foreign currency issuance to 6.5 billion euros, the highest since at least 1999.

Hungary is ready for further talks, while reserving its right to veto the financing agreements over conditions it continues to regard as unacceptable, Cabinet Minister Gergely Gulyas said.

Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s government remains ready to accept the EU rescue fund being implemented in the form of an intergovernmental agreement, out of “solidarity” with southern states, though again only if no objectionable conditionality is attached, Gulyas said.

The Plan B option is a “fall-back” if Hungary and Poland don’t relent over their opposition, Weber said.

Cina. Sta colonizzando l’Europa dell’Est e l’Unione si strappa i capelli.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-12-04.

Se fu notevolmente irritante essere presi per matti quando trenta anni or sono si parlava delle potenzialità cinesi, alle quali nessuno all’epoca voleva credere, tornò invece di grande utilità quando dopo una decina di anni la presenza della Cina divenne evidente, ed allora iniziarono a fioccare le consulenze previsionali.

L’occidentale medio, ed anche molti dei suoi politici, continuano a vivere in una crassa ignoranza di cosa sia e rappresenti la Cina, e di come essa agisca: è troppo fuori dai loro schemi mentali. In molti stentano financo a comprendere come essa sia oramai la maggiore potenza mondiale.

Cina. Mandarinato e democrazia. – Handelsblatt

Cina prima potenza economica mondiale. – Bloomberg

Per lo più, serve che accada un qualcosa che richiami fortemente l’attenzione, che obblighi alla constatazione del dato di fatto: senza la percezione del reale resta impossibile poi avere gli elementi corretti sui quali pensarci sopra.

Cina. BeiDou. La via digitale della seta. Il dominio del mondo.

Cina. Inizia a rendere pan per focaccia. Siete avvisati.

Per quanto possa sembrare essere strano, l’Occidente è rimasto più scosso dal fatto che la Cina abbia negato a Mrs Gigi Hadid il visto di ingresso per motivi religiosi che non dalla constatazione di quanto grandiosamente gigantesco sia il progetto Belt and Road.

Cina. Belt & Road. Investimenti in aumento.

Two strategies benefits both China and the world

China’s Belt and Road plan ‘open’ to all nations

The State Council. The People Republic of China. The Belt and Roads Initiative.

*

Se tuttavia l’impianto economico del Belt and Roads alla fine risulterebbe essere capibile almeno parzialmente, l’Occidentale medio non riesce minimamente a comprendere quale sia la chiave del successo.

Un ladro ragiona da ladro e parte dal presupposto che tutti rubino: gli resta inconcepibile che possano esistere persone oneste.

La ‘casa’ di Shanghai. Capire cosa sia la Cina di oggi.

«La Cina è la Cina: non rientra nelle categorie mentali occidentali.»

Cina. Consolida il suo impero in Africa.

Cina ed Africa. Una politica di rapporti internazionali paritetici.

«China’s popularity in Africa is strong. Its policy of not linking aid and investments to human rights and good governance has made Beijing many friends on the continent, beyond its authoritarian governments»

Questo è il cuore della questione.

La Cina è benvoluta perché tende ad instaurare rapporti bilaterali paritetici, basati sul pilastro della non ingerenza negli altrui problemi interni.

Gli unici Occidentali che contano e che abbiano capito cosa stia accadendo sembrerebbero essere Mr Donald Trump e la Confindustria tedesca. Questa scrive a chiare lettere:

«Contrary to the beliefs of many people here, the West’s political model is not universally accepted in the rest of the world».

Si potrebbe anche aggiungere che il resto del mondo non accetta il modello occidentale perché inconsistente ed iniquo. A parte il fatto che genera instabilità politica. Si veda cosa sta succedendo nella grande Germania.

Fondamentale la posizione assunta da Mr Macron.

«I believe in the sovereignty of states, and therefore, just as I don’t accept being lectured on how to govern my country, I don’t lecture others».

* * * * * * *

L’Occidente, e massimamente l’Unione Europea, avevano sempre condizionato la concessione di aiuti economici alla accettazione della propria Weltanschauung.

*

Kenya President Uhuru Kenyatta clashes with President Obama on LGBT equality: ‘Gay rights is really a non-issue’

«President Barack Obama had been warned by African politicians and religious leaders to avoid the issue of gay rights during his trip to the continent, arguing that any pro-LGBT rights stance would be met with disapproval.

Yet the 44th President of the United States has made LGBT rights a strong part of his second term in office after he became the first sitting US president to publicly favour gay marriage in 2012 and then referencing the Stonewall riots in his 2013 inauguration speech.

At a press conference with the Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta, Mr Obama spoke movingly about the cause of gay rights, comparing the plight of homosexuals to the battle against slavery and segregation in the USA. He said he was “painfully aware of the history when people are treated differently under the law. …. However, despite Mr Obama’s stance on the issue, Mr Kenyatta resolutely stuck to his line on the cause of LGBT rights»

*

Merkel. Una gran brutta figuraccia in Arabia Saudita.

«German Chancellor Merkel has arrived in the Saudi port city of Jeddah to hold talks with the kingdom’s authorities. Women’s rights are high on her agenda following massive criticism of Riyadh’s UN women’s body role. …. dedicated to the promotion of gender equality and the empowerment of women. has raised fears that German arms were being misused»

Non ci si stupisca della risposta datale dal Re Saudita:

«We will not cause any more problems for the German government with new requests for weapons».

Gli arabi non hanno voluto diventare femministi, né tanto meno diversamente ed alteramente senzienti (leggasi, checche impenitenti). Il Re saudita proprio non ne volle sapere di dimettersi, far venire al suo posto una femmina, e mettersi a fare il pervertito: più semplicemente ha eliminato Frau Merkel, precedendo così di poco l’elettorato tedesco.

* * * * * * *

Orbene, la Germania, o meglio i resti di ciò che fu la Germania dopo il governatorato Merkel, e l’Unione Europea guidata da Mr Juncker e da Mr Tusk vorrebbero imporre la propria Weltanschauung a Polonia ed Ungheria.

Questo genera forti tensioni, anche perché i paesi del Visegrad sono incardinati nella Nato ed hanno scambiato la presenza di militari ed armamenti sul proprio territorio per consistenti aiuti economici.

Aiuti economici che però l’Unione Europea condiziona all’accettazione dei propri desiderata: tutti atei, lgbt, tremebondi ed ossequiosi di fronte alle corti di giustizia liberal europee, cordiali ospiti delle ogn (ngo) di Mr Soros.

* * * * * * *

Ma mentre l’Unione Europea si balocca con cose futili quali le scale valoriali delle fu Frau Merkel, la Cina, e con lei la Russia, hanno varato il progetto Ceec, che si integra alla perfezione con quello Belt and Rod.

Cina. Ceec, un nome da imparare. Dazi ridotti dal 17.3% al 7.7%.

«The 16+1 format is an initiative by the People’s Republic of China aimed at intensifying and expanding cooperation with 11 EU Member States and 5 Balkan countries (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia) in the fields of investments, transport, finance, science, education, and culture. In the framework of the initiative, China has defined three potential priority areas for economic cooperation: infrastructure, high technologies, and green technologies.» [Fonte]

*

---

Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries.

«- Chinese premier pledges to enhance cooperation with Hungary

– Chinese premier announces financing support for 16+1 cooperation

– Chinese Premier’s Upcoming Visit Conducive to Cooperation with CEE, SCO countries»

* * * * * * *

Bene. Adesso la Cina non è lontana: adesso confina con la Germania.

Polonia ed Ungheria hanno un interscambio commerciale con la Cina tre volte maggiore che con la Unione Europea.

Al summit di Budapest, il Primo Ministro Li Keqiang ha assistito compassato al pontificale, rendendo onore ai Martiri ungheresi.

L’Unione Europea, ossia la sua fatiscente dirigenza, inizia a comprendere qualcosa.

«Berlin, Brussels and Washington might worry as they watched eastern European states and China hold a major summit this week»

*

«Beijing’s influence is the result of the EU’s own discord»

*

«Hungary and some of its neighbors, like Serbia, are getting promises of new infrastructure and are set to play a key role in China’s new “One Belt, One Road” initiative, a vast $900-billion infrastructure project stretching all the way from Asia to Europe»

*

«Investment is hardly a bad thing, but the political ramifications are providing bigger headaches in other capitals»

*

«Berlin and Brussels fear that China’s economic prowess could loosen their own influence, driving a further wedge in an already-strained relationship between some western and eastern EU members»

*

«The EU is allowing Beijing to undermine the bloc»

*

«There’s a perception that the European Union neglects its eastern member states, which makes officials in such countries all the more grateful for China’s lucrative investment programs»

*

«China’s investments in Eastern Europe contain the danger of a deepening division within the EU …. There is not only a danger — the division is already deep»

*

«China’s credit-based investment aid not has not only elicited gratitude, but has also created political allies to help the country further expand its influence»

*

«Central European leaders such as Czech President Milos Zeman or Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban are open about their admiration for China’s authoritarian governmental system and welcome the fact that — in contrast to decrees from Brussels and Berlin — Beijing does not lecture them on the rule of law, democracy and refugee policy»

*

«The European Union should put more effort into driving its own infrastructure projects, such as the West Balkan road and energy networks that were announced as part of the Berlin Process. Countries that seek to join the European Union»

*

«The European Union is too slow, too divided, and has increasingly less money»

*

«An EU alternative?»

* * * * * * *

Sì. Certamente. Il Ceec e quelli che saranno i suoi sviluppi futuri saranno dapprima una alternativa valida all’Unione Europea, poi, gradualmente, potrebbero tranquillamente assorbirla.

Con buona pace dei liberal, dei socialisti ideologici e di tutta la batteria delle ngo.

---

→ Deutsche Welle. 2017-12-01. Sieren’s China: Pro-Beijing bloc in Eastern Europe irks EU

At the 16+1 summit in Hungary, China further expanded its influence in Eastern and Southeastern Europe. The EU is allowing Beijing to undermine the bloc, DW’s Frank Sieren writes.

*

At the annual meeting of the Cooperation Between China and Central and Eastern European Countries, known as 16+1, in Budapest, Premier Li Keqiang said China wanted to “build bridges.” He told the gathering that his country’s economic investments in the host region would serve “more balanced development in Europe.”

Development of infrastructure development may indeed become increasingly more balanced, but with China’s bridges comes a tunnel that will undermine the EU’s authority. Over the next few years, China intends to invest $3 billion (€2.5 billion) into 16 countries in Central and Eastern Europe, including 11 EU member states.

Referring to the summit 1+16 would make more sense because it is China — as the world’s No. 2 economy by gross domestic product — that is setting the tone.

Officials consider Eastern Europe an important hub for China’s New Silk Road project with the goal of making Asia, Europe and Africa more interconnected economically. Thus the historic new investments in land and sea trade routes.

China is not doing this for altruistic reasons, and officials have never made any effort to convince potential partners otherwise. If construction projects are financed by Chinese banks, then they will also be built by Chinese workers. In return, Beijing would like some gratitude from politicians in the countries where it is active. China already has interests in Hungarian car factories, Serbian steelworks, Romanian oil refineries, Albanian airports and Croatian power plants. At the summit, Li and Hungary agreed to modernize a railway line that will enable goods that arrive in the Greek port of Piraeus, which is controlled by China, to get to the Central European market more quickly via Serbia and Hungary.

There’s a perception that the European Union neglects its eastern member states, which makes officials in such countries all the more grateful for China’s lucrative investment programs. And, in West Balkan states still waiting to be granted EU membership, there is a sense that at least Beijing is taking them seriously.

‘A deepening division’

The interest is a real problem for the EU. “China’s investments in Eastern Europe contain the danger of a deepening division within the EU,” the German member of the European Parliament Bernd Lange, a Social Democrat, recently warned. He is far too cautious in his wording: There is not only a danger — the division is already deep.

China’s credit-based investment aid not has not only elicited gratitude, but has also created political allies to help the country further expand its influence. This summer, Greece — which President Xi Jinping once described as China’s “most reliable friend in Europe” — used its influence to stop the EU from being more robust in condemning territorialism in the South China Sea or restricting the country’s investments within the bloc.

And Central European leaders such as Czech President Milos Zeman or Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban are open about their admiration for China’s authoritarian governmental system and welcome the fact that — in contrast to decrees from Brussels and Berlin — Beijing does not lecture them on the rule of law, democracy and refugee policy. “The world is changing,” Orban said on Monday in Budapest. “China has the resources to enable developments that would be impossible with EU funding alone.”

An EU alternative?

The European Union should put more effort into driving its own infrastructure projects, such as the West Balkan road and energy networks that were announced as part of the Berlin Process. Countries that seek to join the European Union — such as Serbia, which cannot yet receive the EU’s Structural and Investment Funds — do not necessarily much where they get necessary money from. What’s important is progress. The European Union is too slow, too divided, and has increasingly less money.

All this has helped Beijing expand its sphere of influence without anyone putting on the brakes. The “one EU” policy that Reinhard Bütikofer, a German Green in the European Parliament, has called for was inspired by Beijing’s “one China” policy, but so far it is not working. Why should China agree? Well, there is one argument: Beijing and a stable, powerful EU could work together and position themselves against the United States — especially on the issues of trade and North Korea.

China, however, appears to have more of an interest in infrastructure projects and competition with the European Union than in a stable multipolar world order.

---

→ Handelsblatt. 2017-12-01. Eastern Europe cozies up to China

Berlin, Brussels and Washington might worry as they watched eastern European states and China hold a major summit this week. But Beijing’s influence is the result of the EU’s own discord.

*

Viktor Orban pulled out all the stops. The Hungarian prime minister even wore the same light blue tie as his Chinese counterpart, Prime Minister Li Keqiang. The fanfare was designed to signal their close relations (ties?) during a two-day summit in Budapest between China and 16 eastern and central European nations.

This week marked the sixth annual “16+1” summit, though some of the commitments got a bit more serious this year. Hungary and some of its neighbors, like Serbia, are getting promises of new infrastructure and are set to play a key role in China’s new “One Belt, One Road” initiative, a vast $900-billion infrastructure project stretching all the way from Asia to Europe.

Investment is hardly a bad thing, but the political ramifications are providing bigger headaches in other capitals. Berlin and Brussels fear that China’s economic prowess could loosen their own influence, driving a further wedge in an already-strained relationship between some western and eastern EU members. Even Washington, which has historically strong ties with eastern European nations, might look on with some concern.

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→ Srpska. 2017-12-01. China-CEEC Summit 16+1 in Budapest

China’s premier says his country’s increased cooperation with Eastern Europe is part of the process of expanding globalization that will unite the two ends of the Eurasian landmass.

Premier Li Keqiang, attending a summit with 16 countries from central and eastern Europe in Budapest, the Hungarian capital, said Monday that cooperation between them was based on “mutual respect and the ‘win-win’ principle.”

“This kind of cooperation makes it possible for globalization to reach every segment of the world and can be more easily customized to the reality of every country,” Li said.

The premier noted that his country’s global imports would total some $8 trillion over the next five years.

“We hope the central and eastern European countries find their place in this volume and expand their presence on the huge Chinese market,” Li told an economic forum being held during the summit.

China’s “new Silk Road” initiative to expand trade across Asia, Africa and Europe is one of the keys themes of the sixth edition of the annual meeting with the 16 European countries.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has closed off his country to most migration from outside Europe, especially Muslims, said Europe needed “strong allies” to confront the “historical challenges” it is faced with.

“If Europe shuts itself in, it loses the possibility of growth,” Orban said. “We 16 have always been open and would always like to remain so. We always saw cooperation with China as a great opportunity.”

Orban has been keen to pursue a policy of “Eastern Opening” for Hungary, looking to increase trade with Asia while portraying Western Europe as economically challenged and losing its global standing. His stance is seen as an effort to discredit criticism from the European Union that he is undermining democratic principles.

“We see the Chinese president’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ initiative as the new form of globalization which does not divide the world into teachers and students but is based on common respect and common advantages,” Orban said.

He also noted that for the countries in Eastern Europe, economic cooperation with China “is not hindered by any type of political obstacle.” In Hungary’s case, Orban rarely mentions human rights or minority issues when dealing with countries, often non-democratic regimes, while looking to expand economic ties.

Orban also said that the public procurement tenders for the reconstruction of a railway line between Budapest and Belgrade, the capital of Serbia, would be published Monday. The project is being financed mainly by China.

“This project is the first large investment project realized by cooperation between China, an EU member and a candidate for EU membership,” Orban said, adding that the upgraded railroad line could become the fastest transport route to Western Europe of China’s new Silk Road. 

Chairman of the Council of Ministers Denis Zvizdić and the Minister of Foreign Affairs of BiH Igor Crnadak will also participate at the Sixth Summit of 16 Central and Eastern European Officials with Prime Minister of China “16 plus one” in Budapest.