Europa che marcisce. Venerdì voto di sfiducia a Rajoy. Esito incerto.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-05-30.

Spagna. Rajoy traballa sotto lo scandalo dei fondi neri. Verso elezioni anticipate.

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I giochi sono completamente aperti e sarebbe azzardato avanzare delle previsioni.

Dopo molte dichiarazioni contrastanti, adesso sembrerebbe che il partito centrista Ciudadanos si rifiuti di sostenere una mozione di sfiducia contro il Primo Ministro Mariano Rajoy.

I voti dei partiti più piccoli potrebbero essere determinanti nel tentativo di porre fine al mandato di sei anni del premier. Ma le intenzioni di voto finora espresse cono conflittuali.

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Un’unica cosa parrebbe certa.

La sfiducia a Rajoy renderebbe ancora più instabile questa Unione Europea. Rajoy è persona fidata per Mr Juncker, Mr Tusk e Frau Merkel.

«Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy will face a vote of confidence in his leadership on Friday as corruption convictions handed down to dozens of people linked to his center-right People’s Party (PP) threatened his six-year rule»

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«Opposition parties are taking advantage of Rajoy’s weakness after 29 people linked to the PP were convicted last Thursday of crimes including influence-peddling and falsifying accounts, in the culmination of a long-running corruption trial»

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«The PP has closed ranks behind Rajoy, who said on Friday he intended to serve out his four-year term and that the corruption convictions did not affect a single member of his government»

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«Ciudadanos (Citizens), a liberal party ahead in opinion surveys and the most likely to win a snap election, urged Rajoy on Monday to call an early poll, saying his government was weak and tainted by corruption»

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«Ciudadanos said on Saturday it would be willing to work with the Socialists to support a neutral candidate to oust Rajoy, whose minority government has been damaged by a crisis sparked by Catalonia’s independence vote»

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«Spain’s centrist Ciudadanos party refuses to support a motion of no-confidence in Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy due this Friday, its leader said on Wednesday, making the votes of smaller parties key in the bid to end the premier’s six-year rule.»

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L’Unione Europea si avviando ad avere governi sempre più incerti e traballanti, incapaci di prendere decisioni serie ed impegnative.

Ed il numero di governi eurofili diminuisce con il tempo.

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→ Reuters. 2018-05-30. Spanish prime minister to face confidence vote on Friday

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy will face a vote of confidence in his leadership on Friday as corruption convictions handed down to dozens of people linked to his center-right People’s Party (PP) threatened his six-year rule.

Spain’s parliament agreed on Monday that the debate and vote would take place on Thursday and Friday, although the opposition Socialists who proposed the vote may struggle to garner enough support in the fragmented legislature to unseat Rajoy.

News of the no-confidence vote helped drive the Spanish government’s borrowing costs to 2-1/2 month highs, while the blue-chip stock index, the IBEX, turned lower.

Opposition parties are taking advantage of Rajoy’s weakness after 29 people linked to the PP were convicted last Thursday of crimes including influence-peddling and falsifying accounts, in the culmination of a long-running corruption trial.

The PP has closed ranks behind Rajoy, who said on Friday he intended to serve out his four-year term and that the corruption convictions did not affect a single member of his government. The 63-year-old survived a no-confidence vote last June.

“We are deeply sorry that there were people who used the PP for self-enrichment,” party spokesman Pablo Casado told a news conference on Monday, adding that the no-confidence vote was irresponsible and put Spain’s economic stability at risk.

Spanish borrowing costs relative to Germany’s rocketed to their widest differential since the start of the year, though they were also hit by concerns over political uncertainty in Italy.

PRESSURE FROM OPPOSITION

Ciudadanos (Citizens), a liberal party ahead in opinion surveys and the most likely to win a snap election, urged Rajoy on Monday to call an early poll, saying his government was weak and tainted by corruption.

The Socialists have proposed their leader Pedro Sanchez as a replacement for Rajoy. The party, with just 84 seats in parliament, must get at least 176 votes to carry its proposal.

Leftist party Podemos, with 67 seats, has said it will support the motion, but that would not be sufficient. The Socialists would also have to seek backing from small regional parties who would attach politically difficult conditions in return for their support such as the freedom of Catalan politicians from custody.

Ciudadanos said on Saturday it would be willing to work with the Socialists to support a neutral candidate to oust Rajoy, whose minority government has been damaged by a crisis sparked by Catalonia’s independence vote.

However, Ciudadanos leader Albert Rivera said on Monday he was not prepared to seek pacts with “regional nationalists and populists” to oust Rajoy and that elections in the autumn would be preferable.

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→ Reuters. 2018-05-30. Small parties key in Spanish PM no-confidence vote

Spain’s centrist Ciudadanos party refuses to support a motion of no-confidence in Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy due this Friday, its leader said on Wednesday, making the votes of smaller parties key in the bid to end the premier’s six-year rule.

Spanish political parties are taking advantage of Rajoy’s weak minority party and a court ruling last week that sentenced dozens of people linked to his conservative People’s Party (PP) to decades in prison in a long-running corruption trial.

The no-confidence motion, presented by the main opposition Socialists, needs backing from a fragmented parliament including nationalist parties from the Basque and Catalan regions each with their own agenda.

Ciudadanos would be open to proposing a second motion of no-confidence with an independent candidate and an eye to calling an early election, Albert Rivera said in an interview with COPE radio station. He said the Socialists had turned down this plan.

Rajoy said in parliament on Wednesday he intended to carry out his four-year term without calling an early election. But opposition parties are expected to continue to try to oust him even if Friday’s no-confidence vote fails.

“Even if no successful motion is passed to oust Rajoy, the risk of early elections before the end of the year has increased significantly,” said Antonio Barroso, an analyst at Teneo Intelligence.

“If an early election is held before year-end, a centrist, market-friendly and pro-European government would be the most likely result,” he added.

Socialist leader Pedro Sanchez has put himself forward as the alternative candidate for leader and offered to agree with other parties on a date for fresh elections.

So far, leftist party Podemos, which was founded in 2014 and fed off voter frustration with economic inequality and alleged corruption during a biting recession, has pledged its backing.

Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias, whose party holds 67 seats in parliament, would support the motion of no-confidence, he said in an interview with La Sexta television on Wednesday.

Even so, the joint votes with the Socialists fall short of the minimum 176 votes required to unseat Rajoy.

“If it fails, as of Friday we will get to work on throwing out the PP,” Iglesias added.

Rivera dismissed any partnership with Podemos and the regional parties, branding them “separatists and populists”.

“A strong legitimate government arising from elections will give much more stability to Spain than a ‘Frankenstein government’ with a parliamentary minority,” he said.