Cina e Serbia. Belt and Road si approfonda nei Balcani.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-05-27.

Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern Countries.

«Secretariat for Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries is a Chinese institution under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China. The institution deals with communication and coordination of cooperation work between China and Central and Eastern European countries, the preparatory meeting of leaders, preparation for economic and trade forum, and the implementation of those outcomes. The Secretary-General, Executive Secretary-General, and Deputy Secretary-General of Secretariat are respectively assumed by Liu Haixing, the Assistant Minister of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Chen Xu, the Director-General of the Department of European Affairs, and Wang Wengang, the Counselor of the Department of European Affairs. The Secretariat consists of 24 member units, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the International Department of the Central Committee of CPC, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Transport, the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of Culture, the National Health and Family Planning Commission, the People’s Bank, the State Administration of Press, Publication, Radio, Film, and Television, the National Tourism Administration, the National Railway Administration, the Civil Aviation Administration, the Central Committee of the Communist Youth League, the Council for the Promotion of International Trade, the Chinese People’s Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries, the Industrial and Commercial Bank, the Development Bank, the Export-Import Bank, and the China Railway Corporation. The Secretariat office is located in the Department of European Affairs of China’s Foreign Ministry to handle daily affairs.

National coordinators are appointed by the Central and Eastern European countries to be responsible for coordination with the Secretariat and to jointly promote the China and Central and Eastern European Countries Cooperation»    

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«The 16+1 format is an initiative by the People’s Republic of China aimed at intensifying and expanding cooperation with 11 EU Member States and 5 Balkan countries (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia) in the fields of investments, transport, finance, science, education, and culture. In the framework of the initiative, China has defined three potential priority areas for economic cooperation: infrastructure, high technologies, and green technologies.»

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La politica cinese nei confronti dei paesi europei è estremamente cauta, ma non per questo inefficace. È una politica strategica, ossia articolata sull’arco dei decenni, volta a metabolizzare nel sistema politico ed economico cinese le attuali realtà dell’est europeo e dei Balcani. Paesi al momento con sistemi economici ancora bisognosi di ampio sostegno, che si sono rivolti alla Cina per cercare di ottenere ciò che l’attuale Dirigenza dell’Unione Europea ha loro pervicacemente negato: trattamento paritetico senza imposizione alcuna, rispetto delle tradizioni nazionali, cooperazione nella generazione di infrastrutture degne di quel nome, avere una controparte strategica, degna di fede, nella politica e nei commerci.

Forbes aveva riassunto in modo chiaro il punto vi vista occidentale, liberal in materia. Le critiche che esso avanza al “16 + 1” sono esattamente le caratteristiche che le nazioni dell’est europeo e dei Balcani vedono con grande favore.

China’s Bid To Buy Eastern Europe On The Cheap: The ’16+1′ Group

«- Even if the railway does push through from Belgrade to Budapest, it’s not clear why anyone would ride it.

–  So just what does eastern Europe get out of 16+1? A lot of promises, it seems, and very little hard cash.

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Hungary’s controversial Prime Minister Viktor Orban seems to enjoy baiting western world opinion whenever he gets the chance. He’s been known to cozy up to Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and he is perhaps the only remaining supporter of Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the European Union. His long-running battle with Hungarian-American billionaire philanthropist George Soros is legendary.

This week he’s poking western Europe in the eye by hosting China’s Premier Li Keqiang for the sixth annual meeting of the Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries, or “16+1.” The 16+1 grouping links China with 16 central and eastern European (CEE) countries, 11 of them members of the EU. Orban is courting Chinese investment for a series of prestige projects, including a vague plan for cooperation in the healthcare industry and the troubled Budapest-Belgrade high speed rail upgrade.

Off the rails?

The Budapest-Belgrade railway project was launched with much fanfare the last time 16+1 was in Belgrade, in 2014. It was supposed to be finished in time for this year’s 16+1 meeting. So far it has gone precisely nowhere.

The Hungarian half of this high speed railway to nowhere is under investigation for breaking EU tendering rules. The Serbian half is apparently going forward, though where it will go without a connection on the Hungarian side is anyone’s guess.

Despite the fact that the current railway journey takes eight hours, there are only two flights a week connecting Belgrade and Budapest, and they’re run by Belavia, the Belarussian state airline. Google Maps makes it out to be a four-hour drive.

Other 16+1 hopes for big injections of Chinese money have also been slow to bear fruit. Earlier this year there was a lot of talk about China financing a new airport for Poland’s capital Warsaw, but nothing has come of it yet. Meanwhile China has reportedly set up a 10 billion Euro fund to finance CEE infrastructure projects, but in the year since the announcement was made, none of it seems to have been spent.

A lot of promises, but little cash

So just what does eastern Europe get out of 16+1? A lot of promises, it seems, and very little hard cash. Eastern European leaders like Viktor Orban are falling over themselves to attract Chinese investment (and in the process purchase a degree of autonomy from the European Commission in Brussels). China has promised them the Moon. But with budgets tight at home and more pressing foreign policy priorities in Asia, China has so far failed to deliver.

China’s outbound foreign direct investment in CEE remains modest and is concentrated in just a few countries. The headline list of projects completed to date seems to consist of a bridge in Serbia and two roads in Macedonia — and little else. Chinese firms have invested heavily in port infrastructure in Greece, but CEE dreams that China would use its Greek ports as gateways for the economic development of the Balkans have so far failed to materialize.

The 16+1 meetings may give CEE leaders like Orban a welcome opportunity to talk big with China, but it seems increasingly unlikely to deliver them any tangible benefits. The most 16+1 can offer CEE is perhaps a little better visibility among Chinese investors, for whom countries like Slovakia (population 5.4 million) and Slovenia (2 million) are equally obscure minor markets.

Western pundits routinely wring their hands over the possibility that CEE may sell out to China. Orban seems more likely to sell out to Russia, if he sells out at all. China still hasn’t committed the resources needed to have any serious political impact in CEE. China has put on a load of conferences, issued press releases, and subsidized yet more talking shops in the region, but it will have to spend a lot more if it wants to buy any real influence.»  

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Il maggiore risultato ottenuto dai cinesi con il progetto “16 + 1 ” è quello di essere riusciti a renderlo indecifrabile da parte di quanti siano incardinati nell’ideologia liberal e socialista. Costoro ragionano esclusivamente nell’ottica di un ritorno economico immediato o, al massimo, nel brevissimo termine, mentre i cinesi ragionano in ottica strategica pluridecennale.

Di conseguenza i cinesi collocano qua e là, secondo opportunità, tasselli del loro puzzle, facendo anche bene attenzione che non sia facile comprendere quale sarà la composizione finale.

Una cosa parrebbe però certa.

I cinesi non hanno certo investito in una alta velocità tra Budapest e Belgrado per lasciare una cattedrale nel deserto.

Di questi giorni infatti assistiamo a meeting tra cinesi e serbi.

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→ Xinhua. 2018-05-18. China, Serbia vow enhanced cooperation through BRI

China and Serbia should step up pragmatic cooperation through the Belt and Road Initiative and through the “16+1” cooperation mechanism between China and Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries, officials from both sides have agreed.

Cao Jianming, vice-chairperson of the Standing Committee of China’s National People’s Congress, during his visit in Serbia on May 14-16, met with Speaker of National Assembly of Serbia Maja Gojkovic, Prime Minister of Serbia Ana Brnabic, and Serbia’s Republic Public Prosecutor Zagorka Dolovac.

During the meetings, Cao noted that recent years have seen a high-level development of China-Serbia ties, marked by frequent exchange of high-level visits, solid political mutual trust and fruitful achievements in various areas of cooperation between both countries.

Cao expressed hope that the two sides, within the framework of Belt and Road Initiative and the China-CEE cooperation mechanism, would further align their development strategies, expand pragmatic cooperation and step up exchanges of both countries’ legislative bodies, so as to further promote the comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries.

The Serbian side expressed willingness to actively participate in the Belt and Road construction and the “16+1” cooperation and to boost mutually beneficial cooperation in all fields. The Serbian parliament is also ready to deepen exchanges and cooperation with China’s National People’s Congress with an aim to promote bilateral ties.