Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Geopolitica Mondiale, Materie Prime, Putin, Russia

Russia. Mr Putin ha vinto la guerra energetica. – Bloomberg.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-08-15.

2022-08-13__ In the Energy Markets, Putin Is Winning the War 001

«Putin is winning the energy battle»

«No matter what indicator you use, Russian President Vladimir Putin is winning in the energy markets.

«Putin sta vincendo la battaglia energetica»

«Non importa quale indicatore si usi, il presidente russo Vladimir Putin sta vincendo sui mercati energetici»

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Questo articolo allegato riporta in modo ben coordinato una lunga serie di elementi già noti. La sua intrinseca novità consiste nel fatto che è edito da Bloomberg, ossia dal tempio dell’ideologia liberal, tutto loggia e culto di ogni anche impensabile possibile perversione.

Ammette ore rotundo che la Russia del Presidente Putin abbia vinto il conflitto che Joe Biden e la Nato gli hanno dichiarato, coprendola di sanzioni, nella vana speranza di portarla al fallimento.

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Non importa quale indicatore si usi, il presidente russo Vladimir Putin sta vincendo sui mercati energetici. Mosca sta mungendo la sua mucca da mungere, guadagnando centinaia di milioni di dollari ogni giorno per finanziare l’invasione dell’Ucraina e comprare il sostegno interno alla guerra. Quando le sanzioni europee contro le esportazioni di greggio russo entreranno in vigore da novembre, i governi della regione si troveranno di fronte a scelte difficili, poiché la crisi energetica inizierà a colpire consumatori e aziende.

I costi dell’elettricità per le case e le imprese sono destinati a salire a partire da ottobre, poiché l’aumento dei proventi del petrolio consente a Putin di sacrificare le entrate del gas e di comprimere le forniture all’Europa. I prezzi nel Regno Unito saliranno probabilmente del 75%, mentre in Germania alcune aziende municipalizzate hanno già avvertito che i prezzi aumenteranno di oltre il 100%. La Russia è riuscita ad armare le forniture energetiche.

I governi occidentali saranno sempre più costretti a spendere miliardi per sovvenzionare le bollette delle famiglie o, come già avviene in Francia, per assumere il controllo delle società elettriche.

Il primo indicatore che mostra come Putin abbia invertito la tendenza del petrolio è la produzione russa di greggio. Il mese scorso, la produzione del Paese è tornata a livelli vicini a quelli prebellici, con una media di quasi 10.8 milioni di barili al giorno, solo marginalmente in calo rispetto agli 11 milioni pompati a gennaio, immediatamente prima dell’invasione dell’Ucraina.

Dopo questa lotta iniziale, la Russia ha trovato nuovi clienti per il milione di barili al giorno circa che i raffinatori europei hanno smesso di acquistare a causa dell’autosanzione. La maggior parte di questo greggio sta finendo in Asia – in particolare in India – ma anche in Turchia e altrove in Medio Oriente. Una parte è ancora presente in Europa, con gli acquirenti che continuano ad acquistare greggio russo prima dell’introduzione delle sanzioni ufficiali prevista per l’inizio di novembre.

Il secondo indicatore è il prezzo del petrolio russo. Inizialmente, Mosca è stata costretta a vendere i suoi sapori di greggio con sconti enormi rispetto ad altre varietà per attirare gli acquirenti. Nelle ultime settimane, tuttavia, il Cremlino ha riacquistato il potere di determinazione dei prezzi, approfittando di un mercato ristretto.

Il greggio ESPO è passato di mano alla parità con Dubai. Il greggio Urals, il fiore all’occhiello delle esportazioni russe di petrolio verso l’Europa, non sta beneficiando quanto l’ESPO, poiché i suoi principali acquirenti sono tradizionalmente paesi come la Germania piuttosto che l’India. Ma sta anche recuperando il prezzo, vendendo di recente a 20-25 dollari al barile in meno rispetto al Brent di riferimento, dopo essere stato scambiato con uno sconto di quasi 35 dollari all’inizio di aprile. Mosca sta trovando nuovi commercianti di materie prime, spesso operanti dal Medio Oriente e dall’Asia e probabilmente finanziati dal denaro russo, disposti ad acquistare il suo greggio e a spedirlo verso mercati affamati.

L’ultimo indicatore del successo russo è politico, più che di mercato. A marzo e aprile, i politici occidentali erano ottimisti sul fatto che il cartello OPEC, guidato da Arabia Saudita ed Emirati Arabi Uniti, avrebbe abbandonato l’alleanza con la Russia. È accaduto il contrario.

Nonostante il viaggio del Presidente degli Stati Uniti Joseph Biden a Riyadh, Putin ha mantenuto la sua influenza all’interno dell’alleanza OPEC+. Poco dopo la partenza di Biden dall’Arabia Saudita, il vice primo ministro russo Alexander Novak, persona di riferimento della nazione per la gestione delle relazioni con il cartello, è volato nel regno.

La vittoria sul mercato petrolifero significa che Putin può permettersi di rinunciare alle entrate limitando le vendite di gas naturale all’Europa, mettendo sotto pressione Berlino, Parigi e Londra, che si stanno preparando a un massiccio aumento dei prezzi dell’energia al dettaglio e a una potenziale carenza che potrebbe portare al razionamento quest’inverno. Mosca sta facendo così tanti soldi vendendo petrolio che può permettersi di limitare le forniture di greggio anche ai Paesi dell’Europa orientale, come ha fatto all’inizio di questa settimana.

Una combinazione di freddo, aumento della domanda di elettricità e impennata dei prezzi nel corso dell’anno rischia di minare il sostegno occidentale all’Ucraina. I politici europei che sono stati ansiosi di ottenere il plauso internazionale ostentando il loro sostegno a Kiev potrebbero essere meno disposti a pagare il conto interno per evitare la povertà energetica tra i loro elettori.

Putin sta vincendo la battaglia energetica.

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«No matter what indicator you use, Russian President Vladimir Putin is winning in the energy markets. Moscow is milking its oil cash cow, earning hundreds of millions of dollars every day to bankroll the invasion of Ukraine and buy domestic support for the war. Once European sanctions against Russian crude exports kick in from November, the region’s governments will face some tough choices as the energy crisis starts to bite consumers and companies»

«Electricity costs for homes and businesses are set to soar from October, as the surge in oil income allows Putin to sacrifice gas revenue and squeeze supplies to Europe. UK prices are likely to jump by 75%, while in Germany some municipal utilities have already warned prices will increase in excess of 100%. Russia has successfully weaponized energy supplies»

«Western governments will come under increasing pressure to spend billions either subsidizing household bills or, as is already the case in France, by taking control of power companies»

«The first indicator showing how Putin has turned the oil tide is Russian crude production. Last month, the country’s output climbed back to near pre-war levels, averaging almost 10.8 million barrels per day, only marginally down from the 11 million pumped in January immediately prior to the invasion of Ukraine»

«After that initial struggle, Russia has found new customers for the million barrels a day or so that European oil refiners have stopped purchasing due to self-sanctioning. Most of that crude is ending up in Asia — notably India — but also in Turkey and elsewhere in the Middle East. And some is still showing up in Europe, with buyers still purchasing Russian crude ahead of the planned introduction of official sanctions in early November»

«The second indicator is the price of Russian oil. Initially, Moscow was forced to sell its flavors of crude at huge discounts to other varieties to entice buyers. In recent weeks, however, the Kremlin has regained pricing power, taking advantage of a tight market»

«ESPO crude has changed hands at parity to Dubai. Urals crude, the flagship Russian oil export to Europe, isn’t benefiting as much as ESPO, as its key buyers have traditionally been countries such as Germany rather than India. But it’s also recovering in price, selling recently at $20 to $25 a barrel cheaper than the Brent benchmark, after trading at a discount of almost $35 in early April. Moscow is finding new commodity traders, often operating from the Middle East and Asia and probably financed by Russian money, willing to buy its crude and ship it to hungry markets»

«The final indicator of Russian success is political, rather than market related. Back in March and April, Western policy makers were optimistic that the OPEC cartel, led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, would ditch its alliance with Russia. The opposite has been the case»

«Despite a trip by US President Joseph Biden to Riyadh, Putin has retained his influence inside the OPEC+ alliance. Soon after Biden departed from Saudi Arabia, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, the nation’s point-person managing the relationship with the cartel, flew to the kingdom»

«The oil market victory means Putin can afford to forego revenue by restricting natural gas sales to Europe, putting pressure on Berlin, Paris and London, which are bracing for massive retail energy price increases and potential shortages that may lead to rationing this winter. Moscow is making so much money selling oil it can afford to restrict crude supply to Eastern European nations, too, as it did earlier this week»

«A combination of cold weather, surging demand for electricity and soaring prices later this year risks undermining Western support for Ukraine. European politicians who’ve been eager to win international kudos by flaunting their support for Kyiv may be less willing to foot the domestic bill for averting energy poverty among their own voters»

«Putin is winning the energy battle»

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In the Energy Markets, Putin Is Winning the War – Bloomberg.

No matter what indicator you use, Russian President Vladimir Putin is winning in the energy markets. Moscow is milking its oil cash cow, earning hundreds of millions of dollars every day to bankroll the invasion of Ukraine and buy domestic support for the war. Once European sanctions against Russian crude exports kick in from November, the region’s governments will face some tough choices as the energy crisis starts to bite consumers and companies.

Electricity costs for homes and businesses are set to soar from October, as the surge in oil income allows Putin to sacrifice gas revenue and squeeze supplies to Europe. UK prices are likely to jump by 75%, while in Germany some municipal utilities have already warned prices will increase in excess of 100%. Russia has successfully weaponized energy supplies; Western governments will come under increasing pressure to spend billions either subsidizing household bills or, as is already the case in France, by taking control of power companies.

The first indicator showing how Putin has turned the oil tide is Russian crude production. Last month, the country’s output climbed back to near pre-war levels, averaging almost 10.8 million barrels per day, only marginally down from the 11 million pumped in January immediately prior to the invasion of Ukraine. Based on industry estimates, oil production is slightly higher so far this month. 

It isn’t a blip: July marked the third consecutive month of oil production recovery, with output up significantly from this year’s low point of 10 million barrels set in April, when European buyers started shunning Russia and Moscow scrambled to find new buyers.  

After that initial struggle, Russia has found new customers for the million barrels a day or so that European oil refiners have stopped purchasing due to self-sanctioning. Most of that crude is ending up in Asia — notably India — but also in Turkey and elsewhere in the Middle East. And some is still showing up in Europe, with buyers still purchasing Russian crude ahead of the planned introduction of official sanctions in early November. Everyone who bet that Russian oil production would continue to drop — myself included — got it wrong. 

The second indicator is the price of Russian oil. Initially, Moscow was forced to sell its flavors of crude at huge discounts to other varieties to entice buyers. In recent weeks, however, the Kremlin has regained pricing power, taking advantage of a tight market. 

ESPO crude, a category of Russian oil from the Far East, is a good example of the new trend. At the low earlier this year,  it sold at a discount of more than $20 a barrel to Dubai crude, the regional oil benchmark for Asia. Recently, ESPO crude has changed hands at parity to Dubai. Urals crude, the flagship Russian oil export to Europe, isn’t benefiting as much as ESPO, as its key buyers have traditionally been countries such as Germany rather than India. But it’s also recovering in price, selling recently at $20 to $25 a barrel cheaper than the Brent benchmark, after trading at a discount of almost $35 in early April. 

Moscow is finding new commodity traders, often operating from the Middle East and Asia and probably financed by Russian money, willing to buy its crude and ship it to hungry markets. With Brent crude hovering at close to $100 a barrel, and with Russia able to offer smaller discounts, there’s plenty of money coming in to the Kremlin. For now at least, energy sanctions aren’t working. 

The final indicator of Russian success is political, rather than market related. Back in March and April, Western policy makers were optimistic that the OPEC cartel, led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, would ditch its alliance with Russia. The opposite has been the case.

Despite a trip by US President Joseph Biden to Riyadh, Putin has retained his influence inside the OPEC+ alliance. Soon after Biden departed from Saudi Arabia, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, the nation’s point-person managing the relationship with the cartel, flew to the kingdom. A few days later, OPEC+ announced a minuscule oil production increase, keeping pressure on global energy markets.

The oil market victory means Putin can afford to forego revenue by restricting natural gas sales to Europe, putting pressure on Berlin, Paris and London, which are bracing for massive retail energy price increases and potential shortages that may lead to rationing this winter. Moscow is making so much money selling oil it can afford to restrict crude supply to Eastern European nations, too, as it did earlier this week.

A combination of cold weather, surging demand for electricity and soaring prices later this year risks undermining Western support for Ukraine. European politicians who’ve been eager to win international kudos by flaunting their support for Kyiv may be less willing to foot the domestic bill for averting energy poverty among their own voters.

In public, European governments are still resolute in their determination to wean themselves off Russian energy. Privately, they must be acknowledging the hardships that stance threatens to inflict on their economies. Putin is winning the energy battle; let’s hope that leverage isn’t powerful enough to prompt Western politicians to soften their stance in the real war.