Lo scenario di Trump rieletto visto dai liberal democratici. – Cnn

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-02-21.

«Attacking Trump has become something of a hobby at this annual Bavarian gathering»

«Few Westlessness believers doubt he will win a second term.»

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Le elezioni presidenziali americane di novembre hanno la concreta possibilità di riconfermare Mr Trump alla presidenza. Per essere cauti, avrebbe un buon 50% di probabilità di riuscirci.

È nella logica delle cose che i repubblicani esulterebbero, mentre il liberal democratici vedrebbero ciò come una terrificante iattura.

Un solo dato a giustificazione della angoscia dei liberal: nel prossimo quadriennio dovranno essere rinnovati quasi quattrocento giudici federali: in tal caso la composizione delle corti sarebbe per due terzi repubblicana. Una simile composizione delle corti federali durerebbe decine di anni.

Ma una eventuale rielezione avrebbe anche ripercussioni in tutto il mondo.

I più paventano una “Westlessness”: se il significato letterale dovrebbe essere la designazione della scomparsa dell’occidente, in realtà designa la scomparsa della sua componente liberal democratica negli Stati Uniti e, di conseguenza, della sparizione dei liberal socialisti in Europa. È del tutto sequenziale che i liberal democratici e socialisti aborriscano una tale evenienza.

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«What will a second Donald Trump presidential term look like — if it happens? That was the thought in many delegates’ minds as they gathered over the weekend in the southern German city of Munich for a security conference»

«Defense Secretary Mark Esper was a key speaker in Munich. …. “China, China, China, Russia, China.”»

«Attacking Trump has become something of a hobby at this annual Bavarian gathering»

«Germany in particular has drawn Trump’s ire»

«Since his presidency began, the MSC has become a diplomatic skirmish and precursor to tougher battles to come.»

«Only last year, host Chancellor Angela Merkel clashed with US Vice President Mike Pence over NATO, Iran and gas from Russia»

«The working assumption here is that Trump is to blame for the loss of core values» [Nota. Per “core values” l’articolista intende l’ideologia liberal socialista]

«Few Westlessness believers doubt he will win a second term.»

«But the reality is, despite the Westlessness MSC rhetoric, most in Munich believe Trump is the future»

«The MSC foreshadows a world split into either pro-USA, or pro-China camps.»

«But to be part of the universe of everything America, with Trump at the door, can be a formidable gate keeper.»

«The thought in European capitals now, is how he will respond with recalcitrant allies if he is handed a second term. It could be a case study in retribution»

«America’s friends are facing tough choices they haven’t had to make in generations»

«It’s almost 30 years since the Cold War ended: for a few decades the world felt less divided. A second round of Trump could change all that.»

«But for anyone thinking a Democrat may be different, Bremmer cautions America’s isolation is not a Trumpian thing; he said it had begun under Obama, the last President’s policies in the Middle East being an example of that»

«Europe may find America has grown out of love with its Western roots and moved on» [Nota. Per “Western roots” l’articolista intende l’ideologia liberal socialista]

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Ricordiamo come quanto esposto sia il punto di vista di un liberal democratico che scrive dalla roccaforte dei liberal.

Sicuramente un secondo mandato a Mr Trump toglierebbe un gran numero di centri di potere ai liberal democratici, e con essi una cospicua fonte di guadagni.

L’Unione Europea si troverebbe al bivio, se scomparire oppure adattarsi.

In modo significativo, e verosimilmente non certo casuale, tra ottobre e novembre dovrebbe anche decidersi il Merkeldämmerung.

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The world is bracing for what another four years of Trump could look like

What will a second Donald Trump presidential term look like — if it happens? That was the thought in many delegates’ minds as they gathered over the weekend in the southern German city of Munich for a security conference.

The official theme at the conference was “Westlessness,” an intentional gripe at the impact of Trump’s isolationist, America First policies. But what emerged at the event, attended by hundreds of world leaders and their top officials, was a soft-focus vision of the next four years if Trump wins reelection.

Defense Secretary Mark Esper was a key speaker in Munich. Leaving Washington for Europe at the beginning of the week, one of his senior officials framed his mission to the MSC as, “China, China, China, Russia, China.”

He wasn’t the only American official bringing that message.

Attacking Trump has become something of a hobby at this annual Bavarian gathering. It is symptomatic of how many in Europe feel that America, and Trump in particular, is withdrawing from the post-World War II world order it built, leaving more than half a billion people this side of the Atlantic, and countless more around the planet without the deep pockets and security backing they have come to rely on.

Germany in particular has drawn Trump’s ire. Since his presidency began, the MSC has become a diplomatic skirmish and precursor to tougher battles to come.

Only last year, host Chancellor Angela Merkel clashed with US Vice President Mike Pence over NATO, Iran and gas from Russia.

This year’s premise — the West is weakening — is an extension of those festering transatlantic differences. The working assumption here is that Trump is to blame for the loss of core values. Not for the first time in his two-year tenure as Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo defended his boss.

During his speech, which came shortly before Esper’s on Saturday morning, Pompeo told the MSC audience of ministers and policy experts, “those statements don’t reflect reality,” he said. “I’m happy to report that the death of the transatlantic alliance is grossly exaggerated. The West is winning, and we’re winning together.”

Doing it together emerged as another one of America’s messages in Munich, but what has needed little communicating and where there was almost no argument is that Trump’s world vision has traction and will continue.

Few Westlessness believers doubt he will win a second term.

Most see Trump as the future

Another four years of Trump felt baked in to pretty much every conversation — except perhaps those in the orbit of House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the other US Democrats who crossed the pond with her on their annual MSC pilgrimage to meet with like-minded souls.

But the reality is, despite the Westlessness MSC rhetoric, most in Munich believe Trump is the future.

Ian Bremmer, a regular at the MSC and a global affairs expert from geopolitical risk firm Eurasia, believes Trump is getting some things right, namely being tough on Iran, along with standing up to China on trade and intellectual property theft. Many Europeans in Munich would agree even if, like Bremmer, they question the wisdom of how Trump sets about delivering his goals.

Several Middle East government ministers — from his enemies to overseas allies — who declined to be named, all think Trump’s win is a forgone conclusion, and appear to be calibrating their actions accordingly.

In the Middle East that means uncertainty because no one believes Trump has a plan to de-escalate tensions with Iran, but it is in confrontation with China that Trump’s second-term legacy would likely to lie.

A choice of pro-USA or pro-China

The MSC foreshadows a world split into either pro-USA, or pro-China camps.

At the podium, Esper, as promised, focused on China. “I continue to stress to my friends in Europe — and just this past week again at the NATO Defense Ministerial in Brussels — that America’s concerns about Beijing’s commercial and military expansion should be their concerns as well,” the US Defense Secretary said.

The catalyst of this round of anti-China opprobrium is not trade, as it has been the past few years, but Huawei’s 5G networks. Specifically the company’s compulsory allegiance to the Chinese state, and that state’s corrupt and illegal practices. Buy their 5G equipment and forever be vulnerable to their spying and intellectual property thievery.

Mark Esper delivers a speech at the 2020 Munich Security Conference on February 15.

It’s a US message that’s been gathering momentum for the past few months, especially since both the British, French and German governments, along with the European Union, have recently said they’ll continue using controlled amounts of Huawei equipment, in nonsensitive locations.

Other US government officials at the conference sowed the same seeds of perceived wisdom.

The messaging was softer than Esper’s, from banking boardrooms to bars and other MSC venues, senior officials from the State Department, the Department of Justice and the White House seemed to dial back earlier language that implied intelligence sharing with key partners like the United Kingdom was at stake.

Trump’s special representative on telecommunication’s policy Robert Blair said, “we never meant this as a threat,” emphasizing core intelligence sharing between the UK and US will continue.

The bottom line is, the US doesn’t believe the UK or anyone else can insulate themselves from China’s 5G malfeasance if they use Huawei gear, specifically from software updates that open back doors. These will allow the Chinese state to harvest sensitive, valuable proprietary data and even shut down future tech like AI-driven automated cars and telemedicine that will depend on 5G.

Trump’s plain choice for Europe

It’s not lost on Europe that the US is effectively saying it’s our data highway. Even if the message is soft for now everyone knows Trump wants this his way and he’ll use pressure to achieve it.

Blair arguments thrown up by some in Munich — that the US can open data back doors in their IT systems, too — as specious: he points out Europe’s shared values with the US while China harnesses face recognition and other AI tech to violate its citizens’ human rights, including locking up to 2 million Muslim Uyghurs for “re-education.”

Trump was said to have been furious recently when, despite heavy US pressure, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson still allowed Huawei to bid on part of the UK’s new 5G network. But the American President may yet have Johnson in a tight spot, as the Brexit-busy leader needs a good trade deal with the US.

During Brexit campaigning, increasing UK trade with China was touted as a benefit of breaking free from Brussels. But now, Johnson shutting the door in Huawei’s face could have unforeseen consequences for business opportunities in the other direction. But this is the choice the United States appears to want its friends to make.

Writ large, this risks polarizing the world. But to be part of the universe of everything America, with Trump at the door, can be a formidable gate keeper.

Trump survived his impeachment trial emboldened, lashing out at his enemies. The thought in European capitals now, is how he will respond with recalcitrant allies if he is handed a second term. It could be a case study in retribution.

America’s friends are facing tough choices they haven’t had to make in generations. Take a leap of faith that China will change course, that its Communist Party will shed autocracy and its high-tech grip on its billion-plus citizens and reform — or go with what they know and can almost trust by backing the US.

A return to the days or us-or-them

The fear is, like the very fragments of data the decision hinges on, the choice could be binary. If the US blocks anyone from its AI world that uses Chinese high-tech, in the same way it threatens secondary sanctions against businesses who trade, however remotely, with Iran — then the world could be thrown back to the us-or-them days of the Soviet Union, when its Communist Party locked the rest of the world out of their sphere of influence.

A time when tiny islands like Cuba took on outsized significance.

It’s almost 30 years since the Cold War ended: for a few decades the world felt less divided. A second round of Trump could change all that.

But for anyone thinking a Democrat may be different, Bremmer cautions America’s isolation is not a Trumpian thing; he said it had begun under Obama, the last President’s policies in the Middle East being an example of that.

Pelosi echoed the current administration’s message that Huawei 5G is a danger no US politician will ignore, saying in Munich Sunday that “national security, economy, values all come together on the Huawei issue.”

So even in a world with a Democrat in the White House, if not this time then next time which MSC organizers might imagine to be less Westlessness, Europe may find America has grown out of love with its Western roots and moved on. The “Old World” still wants the old bond, but they’ll be beholden to America’s whims, 5G and whatever else comes after it.

Facebook, Twitter resistono all’azione della Pelosi. I tempi sono mutati.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-02-12.

La cosa che sicuramente i liberal democratici detestano al massimo grado è la verità e le prove probanti che la supportano. La odiano di un distillato di odio satanico.

Mentire come un liberal democratico, come Nancy Pelosi …. Un video la incastra.

Trump. Discorso sullo Stato dell’Unione. Pelosi lo straccia platealmente.

Mrs Nancy Pelosi si è conquistata il titolo onorifico di «Nacy the Ripper».

Il video è diventato virale, da tutti commentato, ivi comprese considerazioni impietose sulla mimica facciale di Mrs «Nacy the Ripper», così scossa dalla rabbia furibonda da far contrarre persino i muscoli butolinizzati.

Adesso sta facendo ferro e fuoco con Facebook e con Twitter per imporre la rimozione di detto video, come se la rimozione della prova di ciò che ha fatto potesse cancellare l’atto perpetrato.

Ma Facebook e Twitter fanno orecchie da mercante.

Ma Mrs «Nacy the Ripper» continua a rodersi furente a costo di far saltare tutti gli effetti della terapia botulinica.

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Pelosi Clashes With Facebook and Twitter Over Video Posted by Trump

The video was edited to appear as if Speaker Nancy Pelosi were ripping a copy of President Trump’s State of the Union address while he honored a Tuskegee airman and military families.

Facebook and Twitter have rejected a request by Speaker Nancy Pelosi to remove a video posted by President Trump that was edited to make it appear as though she were ripping a copy of his State of the Union address as he honored a Tuskegee airman and other guests. ….

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Democrats blast Facebook and Twitter over Pelosi speech-ripping video

The video posted by President Donald Trump makes it appear as though the speaker tore up the text during heart-warming moments of the State of the Union.

House Democrats blasted Twitter and Facebook on Friday for hosting what they called a misleadingly edited video posted by President Donald Trump that features House Speaker Nancy Pelosi ripping up his State of the Union speech.

The incident is the latest test of the companies’ new policies on manipulated media.

The video, posted Thursday, splices in footage of Pelosi’s paper-shredding amid moments in which Trump honored the last surviving Tuskegee Airman, announced the reunion of a service member with his family and praised a fallen soldier, among other parts of Tuesday’s address. Pelosi in fact tore up the document at the end of the speech, an action that prompted fierce attacks from Republicans.

Democrats pounded both social media platforms for not taking down the video, in a dust-up that echoed last spring’s controversy over a video that had been deceptively edited to make Pelosi falsely appear to be drunk.

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Questa non è la prima volta che Mrs «Nacy the Ripper» attacca Facebook

Nancy Pelosi al vetriolo contro Facebook: “Un’azienda vergognosa, diffonde bugie e pensa solo ai soldi”

«Le parole contro Facebook usate da Nancy Pelosi, speaker della Camera Usa al centro del processo di impeachment contro Donald Trump, sono state violentissime: “Facebook è una società vergognosa” ha detto Pelosi, “ed è complice nel fuorviare il popolo americano con denaro proveniente da dio sa dove”. 

Secondo la speaker, l’azienda di Mark Zuckerberg ha un solo interesse, ossia il profitto: “Tutto quello che vogliono sono i loro tagli alle tasse e nessuna azione antitrust contro di loro”. 

Inoltre, Pelosi lancia un’accusa: è convinta, spiega, che Facebook abbia aiutato l’amministrazione Trump, anche se in modo indiretto, consentendo alla sua propaganda di arrivare dovunque»

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Pelosi spokesman dismisses Facebook decision to remove some manipulated videos

«A spokesman for the U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi dismissed Facebook’s (FB.O) announcement that it would remove deepfakes and some other manipulated videos from its platform as inadequate on Tuesday.

“Facebook wants you to think the problem is video-editing technology, but the real problem is Facebook’s refusal to stop the spread of disinformation,” tweeted Drew Hammill, a spokesman for the speaker.

Facebook had told Reuters that as part of its new policy it will not remove a heavily edited video that attempted to make Pelosi seem incoherent by slurring her speech and making it appear like she repeatedly stumbled over her words.»

Trump. Prosegue la bonifica dei funzionari infedeli.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-02-12.

Il senato degli Stati Uniti, riunitosi in sommo tribunale ha sentenziato che il Presidente Trump non è colpevole degli addebiti contestatigli dal congresso, tesi a rimuoverlo dalla carica presidenziale.

È un proscioglimento con formula piena.

I liberal democratici hanno sempre sostenuto la sacralità delle sentenze dei tribunali, ma sotto la condizione che i giudici fossero dei sodali che abbiano giudicato secondo l’ideologia, non certo la legge.

La loro ascendenza comunista è chiaramente evidente.

Tutti i giornalisti liberal scrivono sempre “Republican-controlled Senate“, insinuando nelle menti dei lettori che un senato a maggioranza repubblicana sia un Moloch repressivo, non democratico.

Pur di cercare di danneggiare il Presidente Trump, vilipendono il massimo consesso degli Stati Uniti.

Sono carichi di odio, di livorosa collera impotente.

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Domandiamoci adesso: quale fiducia potrebbe mai riporre Mr Trump su persone che hanno testimoniato contro di lui, che poi ne è uscito prosciolto?

«President Donald Trump’s administration on Friday ousted the two witnesses who provided the most damaging testimony during his impeachment investigation: Army Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Vindman and Ambassador Gordon Sondland»

«Vindman — the top Ukraine expert at the White House’s National Security Council — was escorted out of the building»

«Hours later, Sondland said he had been fired from his post as U.S ambassador to the European Union»

«Vindman’s twin brother Yevgeny, who worked as a lawyer at the NSC, also was escorted out of the White House»

«Another senior White House aide who testified over impeachment, Jennifer Williams, left this week for a post at the U.S. military’s Central Command»

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Su tutta questa faccenda sarebbe necessario fare una precisazione, a nostro sommesso avviso, importante.

Una cosa è la trasparenza che sarebbe richiesta a quanti esercitino un qualsiasi potere, massimamente se capi di stato, ed una totalmente differente è la pubblicizzazione di dati e materiali che sotto ogni luna sono considerati essere segreti di stato.

Per fare un esempio, sarebbe folle rivelare l’elenco nominativo degli agenti infiltrati oppure le password di attivazione di un’emergenza atomica.

I liberal democratici odiano Mr Trump che li sta inesorabilmente ridimensionando, e per soddisfare codesto basso sentimento sono disposti anche a sottominare la figura mitica del presidente. e l’immagine mondiale degli Stati Uniti.

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Two days after his acquittal, Trump ousts two star impeachment witnesses

President Donald Trump’s administration on Friday ousted the two witnesses who provided the most damaging testimony during his impeachment investigation: Army Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Vindman and Ambassador Gordon Sondland.

Two days after Trump was acquitted by the Republican-controlled Senate on charges of trying to pressure Ukraine to investigate a political rival, Vindman — the top Ukraine expert at the White House’s National Security Council — was escorted out of the building, according to his lawyer.

“Vindman was asked to leave for telling the truth,” said his lawyer, David Pressman.

Hours later, Sondland said he had been fired from his post as U.S ambassador to the European Union.

The two men served as star witnesses during the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives’ impeachment investigation last year.

Vindman’s twin brother Yevgeny, who worked as a lawyer at the NSC, also was escorted out of the White House, according to Michael Volkov, who represented Vindman when he testified in the impeachment inquiry.

Trump has said he is still upset with Democrats and government officials involved in the impeachment investigation, even after he was acquitted on Wednesday.

“I’m not happy with him. You think I’m supposed to be happy with him?” he said of Vindman on Friday.

An NSC spokesman declined to comment.

Vindman, a decorated combat veteran, testified in November that he “couldn’t believe what I was hearing” when he listened in on a July 25 phone call between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenskiy that became the focus of the inquiry.

Trump asked Zelenskiy to launch investigations into both Democratic rival Joe Biden and a discredited theory that Ukraine, not Russia, colluded with Democrats to harm Trump in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.

Sondland, a wealthy Republican donor and Oregon hotelier who served as U.S. Ambassador to the European Union, testified that he was following Trump’s orders when he pushed Ukrainian officials to carry out investigations sought by the president.

“I am grateful to President Trump for having given me the opportunity to serve,” he said.

The White House and State Department did not immediately respond to requests for comment on Sondland’s removal.

“This is as clear a case of retribution as I’ve seen during my 27 years in the Senate,” said Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein.

Biden’s campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination suffered a serious setback when he came in fourth place at the Democrats’ first state contest in Iowa this week.

Vindman’s two-year stint at the White House had been due to end in July. An Army spokesperson said both brothers had been reassigned to the Army, but declined to give further information “out of respect for their privacy.”

Another senior White House aide who testified over impeachment, Jennifer Williams, left this week for a post at the U.S. military’s Central Command, according to Bloomberg News.

Vindman downplayed concerns that he would suffer payback for speaking out when he testified to Congress. “I will be fine for telling the truth,” he said.

Trump trionfa nei sondaggi. Lo dice la Cnn….

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-02-09.

La manovra ordita da Mrs Nacy Pelosi, «Nacy the Ripper», e dai suoi sodali liberal democratici non solo era un colossale fiasco preannunciato – sarebbero serviti al senato 76 voti – ma risulta anche esitare con un effetto del tutto non voluto e dannoso per i liberal democratici.

Mr Trump ne è uscito da trionfatore, e questo quasi contemporaneamente alla figuraccia fatta nel Caucus Iowa dai vetusti candidati democratici alla nomination. Sono un gruppetto di ottantenni, vetuste mentalità scollate dalla realtà dei fatti, troppo indaffarati con cateteri e pannoloni per poter concepire un piano politico ragionevolmente accetto dagli Elettori.

Ad incoronare il Presidente Trump come trionfatore è addirittura la Cnn, una delle più rinomate distillerie di odio politico non solo degli Stati Uniti ma anche nel mondo.

«Donald Trump just got the best polling news of his presidency»

«Donald Trump has never made it to the 50% approval mark in Gallup polling, which makes him the first president never to rise above the halfway mark in the poll. But he’s pretty damn close right now.»

«In Gallup’s latest poll released Tuesday morning, 49% approve of the job Trump is doing in office while 50% disapprove.»

«Trump’s current 49% approval puts him ahead of where his predecessor — Barack Obama»

«The Democratic-led impeachment effort likely contributed to Trump’s strengthening numbers»

«And that 94% approval is Trump’s highest rating — by 3 points — ever among Republicans»

«It’s hard not to see the impeachment investigation in the House and subsequent trial in the Senate as the prime driver of the near-total fealty that Republicans are now exhibiting toward Trump»

«While 94% of Republicans approve of the job Trump is doing, just 7% of Democrats feel the same; that 87-point gap is the largest ever measured in Gallup polling. Ever.»

«But it’s not just among Republicans where Trump’s numbers have improved. His approval among independents in this latest Gallup poll is 42% — up 5 points from where he was among this group in January and tied for his highest mark ever among unaffiliateds»

«More than 6 in 10 people now approve of the job Trump is doing with the economy»

«The only person that can claim a very big victory in Iowa last night is ‘Trump»

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Dei pareri affrettati tutti ne farebbero volentieri a meno.

Tuttavia queste situazioni e la brillante situazione economica suggerirebbero che Mr Trump abbia ragionevoli possibilità di ottenere un secondo mandato presidenziale.

Se così fosse, sarebbe la scomparsa politica dei liberal democratici.

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Donald Trump just got the best polling news of his presidency

Donald Trump has never made it to the 50% approval mark in Gallup polling, which makes him the first president never to rise above the halfway mark in the poll. But he’s pretty damn close right now.

In Gallup’s latest poll released Tuesday morning, 49% approve of the job Trump is doing in office while 50% disapprove. Trump’s previous high was in April 2019 when he got to 46% approval in Gallup. The first poll Gallup conducted when Trump became president in January 2017 showed him at 45% approval.

Trump’s current 49% approval puts him ahead of where his predecessor — Barack Obama — was at this same time in his first term. (Obama was at 46% approval.) Which is absolutely remarkable, given the first 3+ years of Trump’s presidency and the fact that he became just the third president in American history to be impeached by the House last month.

The Democratic-led impeachment effort likely contributed to Trump’s strengthening numbers. You see it most clearly in the fact that 94% of self-identified Republicans in the poll said they approve of the job Trump is doing — up 6 points from those who said the same thing in Gallup’s poll last month. And that 94% approval is Trump’s highest rating — by 3 points — ever among Republicans.

It’s hard not to see the impeachment investigation in the House and subsequent trial in the Senate as the prime driver of the near-total fealty that Republicans are now exhibiting toward Trump. Trump, as well as his allies in the House and Senate, from the start have portrayed the impeachment proceedings as a purely partisan effort led by Democrats who just can’t accept that Trump beat Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Tribalism was already at work in our politics — you can trace its current nasty iteration back 20 years to the impeachment trial of Bill Clinton — but what Trump has done is supercharge it. And if possible, the attempt to impeach him has amped up the tribalism even more. The best evidence? While 94% of Republicans approve of the job Trump is doing, just 7% of Democrats feel the same; that 87-point gap is the largest ever measured in Gallup polling. Ever.

But it’s not just among Republicans where Trump’s numbers have improved. His approval among independents in this latest Gallup poll is 42% — up 5 points from where he was among this group in January and tied for his highest mark ever among unaffiliateds.

Those gains likely have less to do with impeachment — although it’s worth noting that 52% of all respondents in Gallup think Trump should be acquitted in the Senate trial — than they do with the continued strength of the economy. More than 6 in 10 people now approve of the job Trump is doing with the economy, which is both the best Trump has ever done on that question and the highest mark for any president on it since George W. Bush in the immediate aftermath of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. (Bush overall approval numbers shot to 90% following the attacks.)

Combine Republicans rallying even more closely to Trump during impeachment and independents started to come around on Trump due to the perceived strength of the economy and you see how Trump has reached new polling heights. And while these numbers obviously don’t factor in the utter mess of the Iowa caucuses that played out on national TV Monday night, it’s hard not see how that chaos doesn’t help Trump too.

“The Democrat Caucus is an unmitigated disaster,” the President tweeted Tuesday morning. “Nothing works, just like they ran the Country. Remember the 5 Billion Dollar Obamacare Website, that should have cost 2% of that. The only person that can claim a very big victory in Iowa last night is ‘Trump.'”

In short: it’s been a very good 24 hours for Trump. And the next 24 look pretty good too, as he is all-but-certain to be acquitted by the Senate on the articles of impeachment.

USA. Elezioni. Bloomberg annuncia un piano di 5,000 mld di tasse.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-02-08.

Sembrerebbe essere cosa ragionevole che il senato americano in tempi brevi rigetti l’istanza di impeachment formulata dal congresso nei confronti di Mr Trump, consentendo in questa maniera l’avvio di una campagna elettorale per le presidenziali di novembre combattuta alla fine sul nodo centrale: quello delle tasse che finanziano ogni azione governativa.

Da quanto sembrerebbe delinearsi, alcuni sono i punti al momenti di interesse.

– La corsa alla presidenza americana sembrerebbe essere gerontocratica: Mr Trump ha 74 anni, Mr Bloomberg ha 78 anni, Mr Joe Biden 78 anni, Mr Bernie Sanders 79, Mrs Elisabeth Warren 71 anni. Non in lizza ma di grande peso decisionale, Mrs Nancy Pelosi ha 80 anni. Se è vero che l’età avanzata ha una grande esperienza sulle spalle, sarebbe altrettanto vero considerare come età di questo livello siano usualmente associate a capacità fisiche e mentali ben minori di quelle godute da un quarantenne. Nel contempo, la persona vecchia di norma risulta essere oltremodo radicata nelle proprie idee, maturate nei decenni precedenti e tetragona a recepire le nuove istanze emergenti. Infine, si constata come embolo lavori prevalentemente in questa fascia di età.

– Al momento è impossibile prognosticare quale possa essere il candidato democratico per la White House, ma tratto comune a tutti gli attuali potenziali candidati è l’aumento sostanziale delle tasse sugli abbienti per finanziare un generoso welfare.

– Sembrerebbe quindi delinearsi uno scontro tra un Mr Trump teso alla riduzione ed un candidato democratico portato all’aumento delle tasse. Al contrario della campagna elettorale fatta a suo tempo da Mrs Clinton, questi argomenti toccano da vicino tutti gli Elettori americani, molto sensibili ai problemi dei loro portafogli.

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«Billionaire candidate Mike Bloomberg unveiled a tax plan on Saturday would unwind corporate tax-breaks granted by President Donald Trump and impose at 5% surtax on incomes above $5 million a year»

«Billionaire Democratic candidate Mike Bloomberg unveiled a tax plan on Saturday that would unwind corporate tax breaks granted by President Donald Trump and impose an additional 5% “surtax” on incomes above $5 million a year»

«According to the campaign, the plan in total would generate roughly $5 trillion and would be sufficient to help fund Bloomberg’s initiatives, including his healthcare plan, education, combating climate change and more than $1 trillion infrastructure plan»

«The campaign did not state how much it would generate from its surtax on incomes above $5 million a year, though noted it would only impact less than 0.1% of taxpayers»

«Bloomberg, like fellow moderate candidate Joe Biden, thinks Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act went too far. Both want to hike the corporate tax rate up to 28%, after Trump lowered it from 35% to 21%.»

«Both want to reverse the Trump tax changes that lowered taxes on high-income households from 39.6%. to 37%. Both propose raising capital gain taxes for high-income taxpayers.»

«Bloomberg’s tax plan comes as the economy and taxes take center stage in the 2020 presidential election»

«Critics have argued the move is unconstitutional»

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Queste elezioni 2020 saranno cruciali.

Non solo per quella che sarà la figura umana e politica del presidente eletto, ma anche perché nel prossimo quadriennio dovranno essere rinnovati centinaia di giudici federali nelle corti di appello ed in quelle distrettuali. Una riconferma del presidente Trump sancirebbe la fine del potere giudiziario dei liberal democratici ed inizierebbe una periodo di molti decenni di predominio giuridico dei repubblicani.

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Usa 2020: Bloomberg, nuove tasse su ricchi

Ma non imposta sui paperoni voluta da Sanders e Warren

Un aumento delle tasse per 5.000 miliardi di dollari per i ricchi e le grandi aziende. E’ il piano di Michael Bloomberg, l’ex sindaco di New York candidato alla Casa Bianca. L’iniziativa prevede l’eliminazione del taglio delle tasse di Donald Trump e un aumento delle imposte sul capital gain per gli americani che guadagnano oltre un milione di dollari l’anno. Pur trattandosi di un piano ambizioso, l’iniziativa di Bloomberg non prevede alcuna maxi tassa sui ricchi simile a quella per cui spingono i rivali Bernie Sanders e Elizabeth Warren. Secondo lo staff di Bloomberg, una imposta simile potrebbe infatti essere ritenuta incostituzionale, parere condiviso anche da molti esperti legali progressisti.

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‘I will pay more’: Bloomberg unveils $5 trillion tax plan targeting the wealthy and corporations

– Billionaire candidate Mike Bloomberg unveiled a tax plan on Saturday would unwind corporate tax-breaks granted by President Donald Trump and impose at 5% surtax on incomes above $5 million a year. 

– Bloomberg has a net worth of more than $59 billion and courted business leaders as part of his campaign.

– He said “it is only right” that he pay more in taxes. 

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Billionaire Democratic candidate Mike Bloomberg unveiled a tax plan on Saturday that would unwind corporate tax breaks granted by President Donald Trump and impose an additional 5% “surtax” on incomes above $5 million a year.

According to the campaign, the plan in total would generate roughly $5 trillion and would be sufficient to help fund Bloomberg’s initiatives, including his healthcare plan, education, combating climate change and more than $1 trillion infrastructure plan.

The campaign did not state how much it would generate from its surtax on incomes above $5 million a year, though noted it would only impact less than 0.1% of taxpayers.

Bloomberg, like fellow moderate candidate Joe Biden, thinks Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act went too far. Both want to hike the corporate tax rate up to 28%, after Trump lowered it from 35% to 21%. Both want to reverse the Trump tax changes that lowered taxes on high-income households from 39.6%. to 37%. Both propose raising capital gain taxes for high-income taxpayers.

“The plan I am releasing today raises rates on wealthy individuals and corporations, closes loopholes, cracks down on tax avoidance, expands the estate tax, and reduces the tax advantages that investors have over workers,” said Bloomberg in a statement.

“And, most importantly,” he added, “my plan is achievable” in a seeming swing at more liberal policies put forward by rival Democrats, Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.

For Bloomberg, who has a net worth of more than $59 billion and courted business leaders as part of his campaign, a focus on high-income taxpayers is notable. It is an acknowledgment of rising income inequality and a 2020 presidential campaign that has centered on populist rhetoric. It echoes language by millionaires and billionaires like Warren Buffett and Abigail Disney who have said they should pay higher taxes.

Bloomberg, who founded financial and media company, Bloomberg LP, said in a statement on Saturday he already gives nearly all his company’s profit to charity.

“Under my plan, I’ll continue doing that,” he noted. “But I will also pay more in taxes to make sure all Americans have the same opportunities I did. That’s only right.”

Bloomberg could take the debate stage for the first time in Nevada later this month. The Democratic National Committee on Friday unveiled new debate rules that dropped the requirement for candidates to obtain a minimum number of campaign contributors, opening a previously closed door for Bloomberg.

He is polling in fourth place in national surveys, earning approximately 8% support.

Economy and taxes take center stage

Bloomberg’s tax plan comes as the economy and taxes take center stage in the 2020 presidential election. President Trump has argued the economy has thrived under his watch. Amid deregulation and tax cuts, GDP in 2018 hit 2.9%, beating any calendar year since the financial crisis (though that growth appears to be slowing amid geopolitical uncertainty.)

Democratic candidates, though, have argued Trump’s policies primarily benefit the rich. Most of the leading Democratic candidates have offered up their solutions to a shrinking middle class, while still seeking tax-receipts to fund their initiatives.

Senators Sanders and Warren have proposed taxing wealth directly, with their versions of a “millionaire tax.” Both argue such a tax could generate trillions to fund their proposals. Critics have argued the move is unconstitutional.

Former Vice President Biden, meantime, is going after corporate tax bills. He has proposed a minimum income tax of 15% on the country’s most profitable companies, targeting companies like Amazon, which paid no federal income tax in 2018. Bloomberg has no such proposal.

For Bloomberg, a presidential campaign touting raising taxes stands in contrast to his first run for mayor of New York, which culminated in a 2002 inauguration speech in which Bloomberg implored, “We cannot drive people and business out of New York. We cannot raise taxes. We will find another way,”

That approach to taxes evolved as the city he ran faced a budget crisis, spurred in part by the 2001 terrorist attacks against the World Trade Center. He signed legislation raising the city’s property tax rates by 18.5%, a move he said was “probably the largest property tax increase in the history of the city.” He later offered, then canceled, temporary rebates for those taxes. Bloomberg again raised property taxes in 2008 as the city grappled with the Great Recession.

According to the Bloomberg campaign, during his time as mayor, he increased taxes on the wealthy by nearly $18 billion. The campaign also says that low and middle-income taxpayers held very little or no tax liability during his tenure.

Bloomberg’s taxes helped to balance the city’s budget, a move for which he earned praise. But he also received a fair share of criticism for allowing the poor to fall behind under his watch, even as the city prospered. His successor, Bill de Blasio, called New York under Bloomberg’s run “a tale of two cities.”

But Bloomberg’s defenders point to efforts to combat poverty as mayor, including a push to boost filings under the City Earned Income Tax Credit program, which his campaign says put over $15 million in the pockets of New Yorkers.

Federal Reserve Atlanta. Pil Q1 stimato al 2.9%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-02-07.

La Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta ha rilasciato la migliore stima attuale del pil americano nel primo trimestre del 2020 (Q1): +2.9%.

«The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a “nowcast” of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. ….

Latest estimate: 2.9 percent — February 3, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2020 is 2.9 percent on February 3, up from 2.7 percent on January 31. After this morning’s Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 2.7 percent and 5.7 percent, respectively, to 3.0 percent and 5.8 percent, respectively.»

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Tra sette mesi l’America andrà alle urne per eleggere il presidente.

Risultati economici di questa portata saranno la migliore delle campagne elettorali.

Mentire come un liberal democratico, come Nancy Pelosi …. Un video la incastra.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-02-06.

Secondo la vulgata corrente, Mrs Nancy Pelosi avrebbe strappato il discorso del Presidente Trump perché questi non le avrebbe stretto la mano.

Come tutto ciò che dicono i liberal democratici è una grossolana panzana, smentita dal video allegato.

Ah, non fanno più i liberal di una volta, che sapevano mentire ad arte!

Eppure Mrs Pelosi è ben datata, come la sua dentiera traballante.

La stracciatura dei fogli era stata accuratamente programmata.

«Vice President Mike Pence, who was seated next to the California Democrat, told “Fox & Friends” on Wednesday that it felt like she’d planned to rip the speech because “it felt like such an immediate moment.”»

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Nancy Pelosi ‘pre-ripped’ pages of Trump’s SOTU speech, video shows

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi apparently made tiny tears into her copy of President Trump’s State of the Union address — so that her speech-ripping moment could go off without a hitch.

As Trump introduced cancer-stricken radio host Rush Limbaugh — who received the Medal of Freedom during the speech — Pelosi could be seen grabbing the pages off the table.

Video shows her making what seemed to be a tearing motion and then placing the pages back on the table.

Photos of the sheets of paper show them face down on the table with small slits on the side, near where Pelosi would eventually rip them into pieces.

Vice President Mike Pence, who was seated next to the California Democrat, told “Fox & Friends” on Wednesday that it felt like she’d planned to rip the speech because “it felt like such an immediate moment.”

Pelosi’s office didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Impeachment. Il senato giudica Trump innocente 52 contro 48 voti.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-02-06.

Per l’abuso di potere: 48 colpevole e 52 innocente.

Per l’ostruzione al congresso: 47 colpevole e 53 innocente.

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Sarebbero serviti 76 voti per la condanna.

Il tribunale si è pronunciato, ma ovviamente i liberal contestano la decisione: sono attanagliati da odio puro e distillato, acuito dal fatto che sono impotenti. Basta vedere i loro potenziali candidati: tutti ottantenni con la dentiera che non tiene.

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«The Senate has acquitted President Trump of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress.

The big picture: This is the ending that was expected all along, but the way the Senate trial ended — with nearly every Republican declining to pursue new information about Trump’s Ukraine activities — has raised alarms about the growth of presidential power and the refusal of Congress to stop it.»

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Orbene: la buffonata è terminata, ed anche malo modo.

Non solo.

Mr Trump ha rafforzato in modo consistente le proprie posizioni politiche, mentre i democratici sono in stato confusionale.

Adesso ci si aspettino controreazioni.

Osservate bene il twitter che segue: Mr Trump ha 72.1 milioni di follower.

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Impeachment, Trump assolto da accusa di abuso di potere

La soluzione è stata votata con 52 voti a favore e 48 contrari

Il Senato Usa ha assolto il presidente americano Donald Trump dall’accusa di abuso di potere. L’assoluzione e’ stata votata con 52 voti a favore e 48 contrari. Anche sul secondo articolo di impeachment, quello che riguarda l’ostruzione al Congresso, il presidente Usa è stato assolto.

“Trump 4EVA”, forever, per sempre. E’ il primo tweet postato dal presidente americano dopo la completa assoluzione da tutte le accuse di impeachment da parte del Senato. In realta’ il tycoon rispolvera un vecchio video gia’ postato lo scorso giugno che mostra una copertina di Time in cui compaiono alcuni cartelli con le scritte “Trump 2020, Trump 2024, Trump 2028”, e cosi’ via fino a “Trump 90000”, e infine “Trump EVA”.

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Impeachment, Trump assolto da entrambe le accuse: abuso di potere e ostruzione al congresso

Per la condanna sarebbero serviti 76 voti a favore. Repubblicani compatti con Trump, bocciato l’impeachment. Solo Romney rompe le fila: «Lo devo ai miei figli»

Washington — Ultimo atto del processo a Donald Trump. Il terzo a un presidente nella storia americana. Nessuna sorpresa al Senato. Trump è stato assolto con 52 voti a favore e 48 contrari dall’accusa principale, «abuso di potere». Il quorum necessario per la condanna è di due terzi del totale dei seggi. I democratici hanno potuto contare solo su 47 seggi, a cui si è aggiunto quello di Mitt Romney, l’unico repubblicano a infrangere le consegne di scuderia e l’unico parlamentare che abbia mai votato per rimuovere un presidente del suo stesso partito.

Il senatore dell’Utah, però, si è allineato nella votazione sul secondo articolo, «ostruzione del Congresso» che si è dunque chiusa con un’altra assoluzione con 53 voti a favore e 47 contrari. Romney, già sconfitto da Barack Obama nelle presidenziali del 2012, ha tenuto il discorso più intenso della giornata: «Voglio poter dire ai miei figli e ai miei nipoti che ho fatto il mio dovere, al meglio delle mie possibilità, facendo quello che il Paese si aspetta da me. Voglio essere ricordato nei libri di storia solo come uno dei senatori che oggi diranno quanto il presidente abbia agito male, dolorosamente male».

La risposta dal clan presidenziale è arrivata via Twitter, naturalmente. Firmata da Donald Trump jr, il primogenito del presidente: «Romney va espulso dal partito repubblicano». Il senatore ha spiegato che avrebbe votato a favore di uno solo dei due articoli dell’impeachment: «abuso di potere», perché la condotta di Trump è stata «agghiacciante». È il cuore dell’intero processo che ha ruotato sulla telefonata del 25 luglio 2019, in cui il presidente degli Stati Uniti chiedeva a Volodymyr Zelensky, appena eletto alla guida dell’Ucraina, di riaprire un’indagine per corruzione a carico di Hunter Biden, il figlio dell’ex numero due di Barack Obama e all’epoca, (oggi un po’ meno) considerato l’avversario più pericoloso di Trump nelle presidenziali 2020.

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Pence celebrates Trump’s acquittal and calls impeachment a “sham investigation”

Vice President Mike Pence celebrated the President’s acquittal while giving remarks to a Women for Trump event in Pennsylvania today. 

In his first public comments since the Senate voted not to remove the President from office, Pence told the crowd that it has been an, ��incredible week.” 

“Just a little while ago the United States Senate voted to acquit President Donald Trump on both articles of impeachment,” Pence said, to which the crowd cheered and began a chant of “four more years.”

“After months of a sham investigation and a partisan investigation,” Pence announced, “it’s over America.”

Trump. Discorso sullo Stato dell’Unione. Pelosi lo straccia platealmente.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-02-05.

«”Il socialismo distrugge le nazioni”»

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«Nancy Pelosi, strappa la copia del discorso sullo Stato dell’Unione di Donald Trump»

«Le immagini mostrano chiaramente come la speaker della Camera, appena il presidente ha terminato il suo intervento, ha strappato la copia del discorso»

«Stiamo andando avanti a un ritmo che era inimmaginabile poco tempo fa, e non ci torneremo mai più!»

«”gli anni del decadimento economico sono finiti”»

«”in soli tre brevi anni abbiamo infranto la mentalità del declino americano e abbiamo respinto il ridimensionamento del destino americano”»

«”Non permetteremo mai al socialismo di distruggere l’assistenza sanitaria americana!”»

«”Il socialismo distrugge le nazioni, ma ricorda sempre che la libertà unifica l’anima”»

«”Le nostre scoperte più brillanti non sono ancora note. Le nostre storie più elettrizzanti non sono ancora state raccontate. I nostri più grandi viaggi non sono ancora stati fatti”»

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Nancy Pelosi ed i liberal democratici odiano di odio viscerale e mortale Mr Trump, e lo dimostrano con ogni mezzo: sono socialisti fin nel midollo.

Ma i successi economici e politici del presidente possono essere contrapposti solo producendo idee politiche ed economiche adeguate a convincere gli Elettori americani.

Tutti i potenziali candidati democratici alla White House sono vecchietti ottuagenari, le idee dei quali affondano in settanta anni or sono: ma il mondo è cambiato. Lo si voglia o meno.

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Pelosi strappa copia discorso Trump

Gelo fra i due, Trump non le stringe la mano.

Nancy Pelosi, strappa la copia del discorso sullo Stato dell’Unione di Donald Trump. Le immagini mostrano chiaramente come la speaker della Camera, appena il presidente ha terminato il suo intervento, ha strappato la copia del discorso. Ma la serata era già iniziata all’insegna del gelo fra i due, con Trump che ha evitato di stringerle la mano e Pelosi che lo ha presentato accantonando i rituali dell’occasione.

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Stato Unione, Trump e il “grande ritorno americano”

Il presidente degli Stati Uniti Donald Trump ha salutato il “grande ritorno americano” nel suo terzo discorso sullo Stato dell’Unione, della durata di un’ora e 18 minuti. “Stiamo andando avanti a un ritmo che era inimmaginabile poco tempo fa, e non ci torneremo mai più!”, ha detto in linea con il tono ottimistico scelto per il discorso, affermando che ”gli anni del decadimento economico sono finiti”. Riferendosi, senza citarlo, al suo predecessore Barack Obama, Trump ha quindi detto che “in soli tre brevi anni abbiamo infranto la mentalità del declino americano e abbiamo respinto il ridimensionamento del destino americano”.

Trump non ha risparmiato colpi ai democratici, compresi i candidati di sinistra come Bernie Sanders che lo sfidano alla corsa alla presidenza. “Non permetteremo mai al socialismo di distruggere l’assistenza sanitaria americana!”, ha detto il presidente. “Il socialismo distrugge le nazioni, ma ricorda sempre che la libertà unifica l’anima”, ha aggiunto Trump. “Le nostre scoperte più brillanti non sono ancora note. Le nostre storie più elettrizzanti non sono ancora state raccontate. I nostri più grandi viaggi non sono ancora stati fatti”, ha concluso.

Trump. La prosperità economica potrebbe fargli vincere le elezioni.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-02-05.

Langer Research Associates ha rilasciato un interessante studio sulla propensione al voto per le elezioni presidenziali.

«Prosperity boosts Trump into a competitive position against potential opponents»

«Economic prosperity is boosting Donald Trump’s political prospects, helping the relatively unpopular president to a competitive position against his potential Democratic opponents in the fall election, the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll finds»

«Key to Trump’s opportunity is a rise in economic confidence. One year before he took office, 63% of Americans said they were worried about maintaining their standard of living. Today, 43% say so, a broad 20-point drop in personal economic uncertainty»

«Trump, moreover, gets a share of credit; as reported Friday, 56% approve of his handling of the economy»

«The economy’s not the only factor. Among others, there’s a vast gender gap: The Democratic candidates tested in this poll lead Trump by 23 to 30 percentage points among women, while Trump leads by 15 to 24 points among men»

«Trump moves slightly ahead in another measure, albeit a speculative one: Americans by 49-43% say they expect him to win reelection»

«Demonstrating the impact of economic attitudes, Trump’s job approval rating is just 26% among Americans who are very or somewhat worried about maintaining their standard of living, but jumps to 59% among those who are not so or not at all worried. And the less-worried group, as noted, is the bigger one, 56% of the public, up from 37% four years ago»

«The split is even bigger in the suburbs: Suburban men take Trump over Biden by 63-35%, while it’s the opposite among suburban women»

«Trump retains support from 94% of those who say they voted for him in 2016.»

«Trump leads Biden by 54-42% among whites, a group Trump won by 57-37% in 2016. This includes 58-40% result among white Catholics and a vast 80-18% among evangelical white Protestants»

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Di qui alle elezioni passeranno sette mesi, a tutto può accadere.

Sembrerebbe però emergere l’evidenza che questa campagna elettorale sarà giocata più sull’economia che su altri problemi.

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Economic prosperity boosts Trump in election poll, counterweight to his unpopularity

Prosperity boosts Trump into a competitive position against potential opponents.

Economic prosperity is boosting Donald Trump’s political prospects, helping the relatively unpopular president to a competitive position against his potential Democratic opponents in the fall election, the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll finds.

Key to Trump’s opportunity is a rise in economic confidence. One year before he took office, 63% of Americans said they were worried about maintaining their standard of living. Today, 43% say so, a broad 20-point drop in personal economic uncertainty.

Trump, moreover, gets a share of credit; as reported Friday, 56% approve of his handling of the economy, up 10 points since early September to a career high.

The result is a tighter contest for the presidency in this poll, produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates. Among all adults, Trump trailed top Democratic candidates by double digits in the fall; he’s now cut those margins in half. Among registered voters, moreover, he’s now running essentially even in head-to-head matchups.

Registered voters divide closely, 50-46%, between Joe Biden and Trump, for example, compared with a 56-39% Biden lead three months ago. Among all adults, including those not registered, Biden’s ahead, but now just by 7 points, 51-44%.

The story’s similar for the other Democrats tested against Trump in this survey – Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Mike Bloomberg, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar. They range from 45 to 49% support among registered voters, while Trump has 46 to 48%. Among all adults, these Democrats range from 46 to 52% support; Trump, 43-45%.

In the table above, Bloomberg, Sanders and Biden have statistically significant leads against Trump among all adults. As noted, though, these are down from 17-point leads for Biden and Sanders alike last fall. (Bloomberg hadn’t announced his candidacy at that time.)

Warren, Klobuchar and Buttigieg don’t have significant leads vs. Trump among all adults; Warren and Buttigieg did in the fall. (Klobuchar wasn’t tested.) And none of the Democratic candidates now has a significant lead among registered voters; in October, Biden, Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg all did.

Some of the latest results have been seen before; Trump also was even with Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg among registered voters last summer. But it’s the first time Trump and Biden have been this close.

The economy’s not the only factor. Among others, there’s a vast gender gap: The Democratic candidates tested in this poll lead Trump by 23 to 30 percentage points among women, while Trump leads by 15 to 24 points among men. If it held on Election Day, it’d nearly double the previous record gender gap in exit polls dating to 1976, 24 points in 2016,

Expectations/Enthusiasim

Trump moves slightly ahead in another measure, albeit a speculative one: Americans by 49-43% say they expect him to win reelection. Of course, that doesn’t always work out; during the 2016 election cycle, half or more expected Hillary Clinton to win.

A measure of enthusiasm, which can indicate motivation to vote, also is somewhat better for Trump. Ninety-three percent of people who back him in all these matchups say they’re enthusiastic about supporting him, while fewer of those who always pick the Democratic candidates say they’re enthusiastic about opposing Trump, 81%.

Still, while negative enthusiasm – opposing Trump – is one factor, another remains to be seen: whether the party’s eventual candidate can generate positive enthusiasm at or above the levels the president now enjoys.

Approval and the Economy

Competing fundamentals are at play in the election. At 44-51%, Trump’s job approval rating – even as it matches his career high – is short of the level often associated with re-election. George Bush had 46% approval at about this point in 1992; he continued down from there, and lost. In Gallup data, Jimmy Carter had 58% approval in January 1980, but he, too, fell steadily from there, and likewise lost. Gerald Ford was at 45% in January 1976, on the way to his retirement.

Further, Trump, as reported Friday, has the lowest career average approval of any president in 75 years of modern polling, and is the first never to achieve majority approval.

That said, Bush, Carter and Ford faced stiff economic headwinds in their re-election campaigns, and their approval was falling or flat as the election approached; Trump, by contrast, has an economic tailwind. (And there’s another case, Barack Obama in 2012; he started the year at 48% approval and barely made 50% in the months ahead, yet won re-election with 51% of the popular vote.)

Demonstrating the impact of economic attitudes, Trump’s job approval rating is just 26% among Americans who are very or somewhat worried about maintaining their standard of living, but jumps to 59% among those who are not so or not at all worried. And the less-worried group, as noted, is the bigger one, 56% of the public, up from 37% four years ago.

This is apparent in vote preferences as well as approval. Tested against Biden, Trump has 56% support among those who are less worried or unworried about maintaining their standard of living, vs. 27% support among those who are more worried.

Degrees of worry matter, as well. Trump’s support against Biden reaches 62% among the plurality of Americans who are entirely unworried about maintaining their standard of living. It drops to 41% among those who are “not so” worried and 33% among those who are somewhat worried, and bottoms out at 15% among the very worried. Results are similar measuring Trump against the other Democratic candidates tested in this survey.

Partisanship, to be sure, is related to economic worry; people who are skeptical of the person at the nation’s helm are less confident. Among Democrats, 57% are very or somewhat worried about being able to maintain their current standard of living; among Republicans, this plummets to 27%. Notably, it’s 40% among independents, the swing voters in many elections; 59% of independents express little or no worry about their economic stability.

It’s true, too, that Democrats include more economically vulnerable groups — lower-income adults, women, and racial or ethnic minorities all are more apt to identify themselves as Democrats than as Republicans.

For all this, Trump does have vulnerabilities on the economy. As shown, he leads only among those who are not at all worried about maintaining their standard of living. And his 56% approval rating on the economy pales in comparison to Bill Clinton’s high on this measure in the last go-go economy; Clinton’s approval rating for handling the economy reached as high as 76% in ABC/Post polls.

Support Groups

As is the case with Trump’s approval rating, there are vast differences among groups in support for Trump vs. his potential Democratic opponents. We use Biden as an example in the results that follow; findings are generally similar for the other top Democrats.

Men divide 56-39% in favor of Trump vs. Biden; women, 62-32% for Biden – a vast 47-point gender gap, twice as big as it was in the 2016 election, per the national exit poll. Trump won 52% of men in that contest, while Hillary Clinton won 54% of women.

The split is even bigger in the suburbs: Suburban men take Trump over Biden by 63-35%, while it’s the opposite among suburban women. They support Biden by 68-30%, producing a remarkable 66-point gender gap.

Among other groups, 87% of Republicans pick Trump and 93% of Democrats favor Biden, while independents divide essentially evenly. Biden prevails among moderates (59-36%) and liberals (84-12%) alike, while Trump comes back with a 71-26% advantage among conservatives (who outnumber liberals by 15 points).

Trump retains support from 94% of those who say they voted for him in 2016.

Trump leads Biden by 54-42% among whites, a group Trump won by 57-37% in 2016. This includes 58-40% result among white Catholics and a vast 80-18% among evangelical white Protestants (similar to Trump’s margin among white evangelicals in 2016). Among non-evangelical white Protestants, the race goes to essentially a dead heat, 48-46%.

Biden has almost unanimous support from blacks (94-4%) and nearly a 2-to-1 lead among Hispanics (61-31%). The latter is somewhat below Democrats’ performance among Hispanics in exit polls the last three presidential elections (67% in 2016, 71% in 2012 and 67% in 2008).

Biden also underperforms recent history with voters in union households. This group — 12% of the population — divides closely, 49-45%, Biden-Trump, a 4-point margin. Democratic presidential candidates won union household voters by 9 points in 2016 and by wider margins, 18 to 22 points, from 2000 to 2012.