Venezuela. Anche oggi ha pagato i dividendi sul debito estero.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2016-08-08.

 

Il Venezuela è un paese a stento comprensibile. Più che fallito all’interno, ma pur sempre ottimo pagatore delle cedole dei titoli esteri. Ne abbiamo già spiegato i motivi.

Venezuela. Fallito all’interno, pagatore regolare all’estero. 2016-07-13

Adesso la situazione potrebbe mutare.

«The Chinese government used to be lenient with its allies who ran into trouble with their debt servicing»

*

«China had waived 25.6 billion yuan in loans to 50 countries as at the end of 2009»

*

«Beijing has lent about US$ 65 billion to Caracas over the past decade»

*

«In 2015 alone, China lent US$10 billion to state-backed energy projects»

*

«A Chinese envoy has met with Venezuela’s opposition to gain assurances that the country would honor its debt obligations in the event that President Nicolas Maduro’s term is cut short through a recall referendum»

*

«La Cina sarebbe pronta a rinegoziare i propri crediti nei confronti del Venezuela garantendo così un po’ di sollievo al governo di Caracas, tuttora costretto a fare i conti con una crisi economica di enorme portata»

*

«Il Venezuela ha raggiunto un accordo con il suo principale finanziatore, la Cina, per migliorare le condizioni di un’intesa che prevede greggio in cambio di prestiti»

* * * * * * *

Il Venezuela sa benissimo che se non rispettasse gli oneri derivanti dal debito estero si taglierebbe completamente dal mondo finanziario. E questo lo sanno bene anche i suoi alleati e finanziatori.

Fino a tanto che paga le cedole e rimborsa i titoli andati a scadenza gli investitori non vanno per il sottile. Sufficit. E questo non è puro cinismo: se gli investitori si allontanassero, quel paese cadrebbe in modo rovinoso. Da questo punto di vista svolgono un ruolo financo benefico. E poi, corrono un pericolo non da poco.

*

Sta di fatto che i titoli di cui in figura sono stati comprati con quotazione 35, per un controvalore 63,636 euro. La resa è del 29.25%. È del tutto ovvio che di fronte ad un tasso del genere, che potrebbe anche durare fino a termine del bond, siano in molti a ponderare di correre un rischio calcolato. Il tasso elevato quantifica il rischio corso.

 

---

→ Caixin Online. 2016-06-21. China Seeks Assurances Against Possible Debt Default by Venezuela

Fears that Latin American “ally” might be unable to repay billions of dollars in loans sparks flurry of urgent negotiations.

*

(Beijing) – The Chinese government used to be lenient with its allies who ran into trouble with their debt servicing, but its tone has changed ahead of a looming crisis in Venezuela.

China had waived 25.6 billion yuan in loans to 50 countries as at the end of 2009, a government white paper on foreign aid published in 2011 showed. Many of them were low-income countries in Africa including Tanzania and Sudan – two of China’s closest allies in the continent – and others were in Latin America and Asia.

However, Chinese authorities are trying to avoid another debt write-off in the case of its traditional ally, Venezuela.

A Chinese envoy has met with Venezuela’s opposition to gain assurances that the country would honor its debt obligations in the event that President Nicolas Maduro’s term is cut short through a recall referendum, international media reports said.

The Financial Times, which broke the news on June 20 citing sources from both countries, did not say when this meeting took place.

It is the latest in a series of attempts by Beijing to ensure that billions of dollars in loans given to the Latin American oil producer –long regarded as an ally by China – will not turn sour. A slump in global oil prices have crippled the Venezuelan economy. The opposition is also accusing Maduro of mismanagement. The International Monetary Fund predicts the country’s economy will shrink 8 percent in 2016, and a further 12 percent in 2017.

China is Venezuela’s biggest creditor, but the Chinese government has not released any figures on the value of its investments in the country. Inter-American Dialogue, a private think-tank in Washington, estimates Beijing has lent about US$ 65 billion to Caracas over the past decade. In 2015 alone, China lent US$10 billion to state-backed energy projects, the think-tank said.

Venezuela has requested Beijing for a one-year grace period during which State-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA only pays interest on the money it has borrowed under the oil-for-loan program with China, Reuters reported on June 15.

The newswire did not say how much the state firm owed or if Beijing has agreed to grant a concession. But the change would improve the oil giant’s cash flow for 2016 by US$3 billion, Reuters said.

Beijing had cut deals with Caracas even earlier to prevent Maduro’s regime from wobbling under pressure to repay. China agreed to take oil supplies as payment for a US$4 billion debt that matured in February last year, after the Chinese foreign ministry said in January 2015 that China understood the suffering in Venezuela caused by a sharp fall in global oil prices.

Venezuelan authorities extended a state of emergency put in place in January 14 to July 13, as looting escalated earlier this month. Rising inflation and shortages of food, medicines and other essentials have led to groups ransacking shops.

Meanwhile, Beijing is now at pains to address public concerns at home over an impeding debt bomb. The Communist Party’s mouthpiece, People’s Daily, in a commentary on June 11, said Venezuela is taking its debt obligation seriously. The Latin American country, which is sitting on the world’s largest oil reserve, does not want to default and is afraid of doing so, the paper said.

“Even if the opposition comes to power, the giant ship of Sino-Venezuela cooperation will not capsize as some might believe because its build on a solid foundation,” the article said.

This was followed by another assurance from Lu kang, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, who said at a press conference on June 15 that Beijing’s investments in the oil-rich country has benefited both sides.

The Chinese government’s attempts to boost public confidence in the state’s foreign investment policy come amidst criticism over pouring money into wasteful ventures abroad in recent years. For example, The overseas’ investment arm of state-run China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. spent over US$10 billion to acquire stakes in several offshore oil fields in Angola starting in 2008, but none of the sites have yielded a significant amount of oil, said the National Audit Bureau.

---

→ Financial Times. 2016-06-20. FT: intesa sul debito tra Cina e Venezuela?

La Cina sarebbe pronta a rinegoziare i propri crediti nei confronti del Venezuela garantendo così un po’ di sollievo al governo di Caracas, tuttora costretto a fare i conti con una crisi economica di enorme portata. Lo ha riferito il Financial Times. Rappresentanti di Pechino, scrive il quotidiano britannico, hanno già incontrato alcuni esponenti dell’opposizione locale. Un evento che implicherebbe, forse, l’implicito nulla osta della Cina nei confronti di un possibile cambio di maggioranza nel Paese a patto, ovviamente, di ottenere adeguate garanzie circa la restituzione del debito nei prossimi anni. Dal 2005 ad oggi, la Cina ha concesso prestiti al Venezuela per 65 miliardi di dollari.

Nel corso degli anni, il Venezuela ha ottenuto finanziamenti utilizzando il petrolio come garanzia. Ma il deprezzamento del barile sperimentato a partire dall’estate 2014 ha creato non pochi problemi al Paese. Ad oggi, ricorda il FT, il greggio copre da solo il 95% dei ricavi derivanti dalle esportazioni di Caracas. Secondo il Fondo Monetario Internazionale, l’economia venezuelana dovrebbe contrarsi quest’anno dell’8%. Il tasso di inflazione annuale dovrebbe raggiungere il 480%.

---

→ Reuters. 2016-05-16. Venezuela, accordo migliorativo con Cina, ossigeno per economia.

CARACAS, 16 maggio (Reuters) – Il Venezuela ha raggiunto un accordo con il suo principale finanziatore, la Cina, per migliorare le condizioni di un’intesa che prevede greggio in cambio di prestiti, permettendo al Paese membro dell’Opec di ricevere una boccata di ossigeno in vista di consistenti pagamenti di debiti che dovrà effettuare.

    E’ quanto ha dichiarato il vice responsabile dell’Economia, Miguel Perez, a Reuters. “Tutte” le condizioni, comprese le tempistiche dei prestiti, l’ammontare degli investimenti e gli  aspetti non finanziari, sono migliorate.

    In base all’accordo, la Cina ha prestato circa 50 miliardi di dollari al Venezuela.

---

→ Reuters. 2016-06-15. Exclusive: Venezuela in talks with China for grace period in oil-for-loans deal – sources

Venezuela is in talks with China to obtain a grace period in its oil-for-loans deal that would improve the OPEC nation’s capacity to make bond payments amid an economic crisis, sources briefed on the proposal have told Reuters.

Venezuela has borrowed over $50 billion from China under the financing arrangement created by late socialist leader Hugo Chavez in 2007, in which a portion of its crude and fuel sales to the world’s second-biggest economy are used to pay down loans.

The two-year rout in oil markets has left the government of President Nicolas Maduro struggling to meet the original terms of the agreement, which require that state oil company PDVSA set aside more barrels for debt services when prices fall.

Venezuela is now seeking a one-year grace period in which it would only pay interest on the loans, according to two oil industry sources and one finance industry source who asked not to be identified because they are not authorized to speak about the issue.

The sources said state oil company PDVSA would receive cash payments for shipments that currently go to pay principal. The change would improve PDVSA’s 2016 cash flow by $3 billion if it took effect this month, two of the sources estimated.

That would make it easier for PDVSA to meet heavy bond payments this year amid an ongoing collapse in a socialist economy facing Soviet-style scarcity and daily food riots. It could also ease investor concerns of a default that have made its paper the riskiest of any emerging market debt.

Maduro denies his government will default and accuses adversaries of spreading rumors to that effect in order to destabilize his government.

The potential cash-flow benefits of the proposed deal, however, could be offset by Venezuela’s falling oil output.

Consulted by Reuters about the proposal, PDVSA President and Oil Minister Eulogio del Pino responded: “We’re working on all of this.” He added that he planned to travel to China following a trip to Russia, which is expected this week. He declined to provide additional details.

On Wednesday, China’s Foreign Ministry said the funds would be used in projects bringing practical benefits to both sides.

“We are willing to work with Venezuela on the basis of mutual benefit to continue to conduct all forms of cooperation, including in the realm of financing,” ministry spokesman Lu Kang told a regular briefing.

BETTER TERMS

Economy Vice President Miguel Perez said in an interview last month Venezuela had reached a deal to improve the terms of the arrangement, but declined to provide details.

Under the proposal, the interest-only payment terms would remain in place as long as Venezuelan crude is below $50 per barrel, according to the three sources. If crude prices continue to rise, China would apply a sliding scale under which Venezuela would steadily increase payment on the principal portion of the loans, one of the sources said.

Venezuela’s basket of oil and fuels this year has traded at a discount of around 25 percent to the benchmark Brent crude price, which was trading around $49.55 a barrel on Tuesday.

The proposed change in terms of the agreement has not derailed negotiations for the renewal of a $5 billion tranche of the financing deal, according to two of the sources.

The proposal has been slowed in part because China has requested that the change be approved by Venezuela’s Congress, according to one of the sources. The legislature has been locked in a power struggle with Maduro since January, when an opposition majority took control of parliament following a sweeping electoral victory in December.

Venezuela in 2014 shipped 630,000 barrels of oil and fuel to China according to PDVSA’s 2014 financial results, which are the most recent available. Around 45 percent of the value of those shipments was used to pay down debt, with PDVSA receiving the remainder in cash, according to Reuters calculations based on information released by PDVSA.

Rising oil prices have boosted investor optimism that PDVSA will be able to pay off $3 billion in bonds that come due in October and November, helping fuel a rally in PDVSA and Venezuela bonds in recent months.

Venezuela’s debt nonetheless remains the riskiest of any emerging market paper, yielding some 28 percentage points more than comparable U.S. Treasuries, according to the JPMorgan EMBI Diversified Index.